Report Information - Report Name: Egg Industry Daily Report 2025-09-01 [1] - Researcher: Xu Fangli [2] Industry Investment Rating - No industry investment rating information is provided in the report. Core View - The current egg supply is relatively abundant due to the high inventory of laying hens and the continuous delivery of cold-storage eggs. Although the demand for eggs has slightly increased due to Mid-Autumn Festival stocking and the start of the school term, it is still weak compared to the same period last year. The sufficient inventory in each link and the egg quality problems in some areas make it difficult for the increased demand to cover the abundant supply, resulting in a weak short-term price support. The futures price generally maintains a weak trend under the pressure of low spot prices and high production capacity [2]. Summary by Directory Futures Market - The futures closing price of the active egg contract is 2,921 yuan per 500 kilograms, down 18 yuan [2]. - The net long position of the top 20 futures holders is -47,681 lots, down 5,212 lots [2]. - The egg futures monthly spread (1 - 5) is -47 yuan per 500 kilograms, down 14 yuan [2]. - The futures trading volume of the active contract is 484,410 lots, down 9,352 lots [2]. - The registered warehouse receipt volume of eggs is 0 lots [2]. 现货市场 - The spot price of eggs is 3.11 yuan per catty, unchanged [2]. - The basis (spot - futures) is 190 yuan per 500 kilograms, up 13 yuan [2]. Upstream Situation - The national laying hen inventory index is 113.18 (2015 = 100), up 1.27 [2]. - The national culled laying hen index is 99.2 (2015 = 100), down 4.89 [2]. - The average price of layer chicks in the main production areas is 3 yuan per chick, down 0.2 yuan [2]. - The national new chick index is 78.4 (2015 = 100), up 2.33 [2]. - The average price of layer compound feed is 2.76 yuan per kilogram, unchanged [2]. - The breeding profit of laying hens is -0.21 yuan per hen, down 0.06 yuan [2]. - The average price of culled chickens in the main production areas is 9.66 yuan per kilogram, down 0.44 yuan [2]. - The national average age of culled chickens is 512 days, up 11 days [2]. Industry Situation - The average wholesale price of pork is 20.01 yuan per kilogram, up 0.07 yuan [2]. - The average wholesale price of 28 key monitored vegetables is 5.01 yuan per kilogram, up 0.07 yuan [2]. - The average wholesale price of white - striped chickens is 17.64 yuan per kilogram, up 0.19 yuan [2]. - The weekly inventory in the circulation link is 1.12 days, down 0.04 days [2]. - The weekly inventory in the production link is 1.06 days, up 0.04 days [2]. - The monthly export volume of fresh eggs is 12,792.51 tons, down 110.81 tons [2]. Downstream Situation - The weekly egg consumption in the sales area is 7,674 tons, up 235 tons [2]. Industry News - The average price of eggs in Shandong's main production area is 6.12 yuan per kilogram, down 0.07 yuan from yesterday; in Hebei, it is 6.22 yuan per kilogram, up 0.06 yuan from yesterday; in Guangdong, it is 6.40 yuan per kilogram, unchanged from yesterday; in Beijing, it is 6.90 yuan per kilogram, unchanged from yesterday [2]. - The current inventory of laying hens is at a high level, and the pressure of newly - laid eggs from the previously replenished laying hens is relatively large, resulting in sufficient egg supply. The continuous delivery of cold - storage eggs further increases the supply pressure [2]. Key Points to Watch - No key points to watch are reported today [2].

红枣产业日报 2025-09-01 市关注实际产量以及开秤价表现。操作上，建议暂时观望。 研究员: 张昕 期货从业资格号F03109641 期货投资咨询从业证书号Z0018457 免责声明 本报告中的信息均来源于公开可获得资料，瑞达期货股份有限公司力求准确可靠，但对这些信息的准确性及完整性不做任 何保证，据此投资，责任自负。本报告不构成个人投资建议，客户应考虑本报告中的任何意见或建议是否符合其特定状况。本 报告版权仅为我公司所有，未经书面许可，任何机构和个人不得以任何形式翻版、复制和发布。如引用、刊发，需注明出处为 瑞达期货股份有限公司研究院，且不得对本报告进行有悖原意的引用、删节和修改。 | 项目类别 | 数据指标 | 最新 | 环比 | 数据指标 | 最新 | 环比 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 期货市场 | 期货主力合约收盘价:红枣(日,元/吨) | 11340 | | -170 主力合约持仓量:红枣(日,手) | 135837 | 4162 -2 | | | 期货前20名持仓:净买单量:红枣(日,手) | -14896 | | -469 ...

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Core Viewpoints - The total demand for industrial silicon from the three major downstream industries remains flat. The current industry inventory is still at a high level, and although the number of standard warehouse receipts has decreased, inventory digestion still faces certain pressure. Polycrystalline silicon rose today, but industrial silicon did not follow, and there may be a catch - up increase later. Operationally, if the price later falls below 8,200 yuan, consider mid - to long - term long positions on dips [2] Summary by Relevant Catalogs Futures Market - The closing price of the main contract was 8,495 yuan/ton, up 105 yuan; the main contract position was 285,449 lots, down 6,966 lots; the net position of the top 20 was - 75,977 lots, down 4,134 lots; the Guangzhou Futures Exchange warehouse receipts were 50,453 lots, down 203 lots; the price difference between September and October industrial silicon was - 20 yuan, up 15 yuan [2] Spot Market - The average price of oxygen - passing 553 silicon was 9,050 yuan/ton, unchanged; the average price of 421 silicon was 9,400 yuan/ton, unchanged; the Si main contract basis was 555 yuan/ton, down 105 yuan; the DMC spot price was 11,100 yuan/ton, unchanged; the average price of silica was 410 yuan/ton, unchanged; the average price of petroleum coke was 1,810 yuan/ton, unchanged [2] Upstream Situation - The average price of clean coal was 1,850 yuan/ton, unchanged; the average price of wood chips was 490 yuan/ton, unchanged; the ex - factory price of graphite electrodes (400mm) was 12,250 yuan/ton, unchanged [2] Industry Situation - The monthly output of industrial silicon was 333,200 tons, an increase of 8,500 tons; the weekly social inventory of industrial silicon was 552,000 tons, an increase of 10,000 tons; the monthly import volume of industrial silicon was 2,211.36 tons, an increase of 71.51 tons; the monthly export volume of industrial silicon was 52,919.65 tons, a decrease of 12,197.89 tons [2] Downstream Situation - The weekly output of silicone DMC was 44,900 tons, an increase of 700 tons; the average price of aluminum alloy ADC12 in the Yangtze River spot was 20,600 yuan/ton, unchanged; the weekly average price of photovoltaic - grade polycrystalline silicon was 6.2 US dollars/kg, an increase of 1.26 US dollars/kg; the overseas market price of photovoltaic - grade polycrystalline silicon was 15.75 US dollars/kg, unchanged; the monthly export volume of unwrought aluminum alloy was 24,908.89 tons, a decrease of 861.29 tons; the weekly operating rate of silicone DMC was 70.59%, a decrease of 2.12 percentage points; the monthly output of aluminum alloy was 20,187.85 tons, a decrease of 13.3 tons; the monthly export volume of aluminum alloy was 153,600 tons, a decrease of 337.93 tons [2] Industry News - Longi Green Energy reduced its loss by more than 50% year - on - year in the first half of this year. In the second quarter, it reduced its loss by 60.66% year - on - year and 21.10% quarter - on - quarter. From January to July, the total operating income of national state - owned and state - holding enterprises was flat compared with the same period last year, and the total profit decreased by 3.3% year - on - year. In terms of industrial silicon, on the supply side, the production in the southwest region is expected to increase next week, while the production in Xinjiang is relatively stable. On the demand side, the silicone market is expected to increase production, the polycrystalline silicon industry is expected to increase production significantly in August, and the aluminum alloy industry has general demand [2]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided 2. Core Views of the Report - On September 1, the manganese - silicon 2601 contract was reported at 5736, down 0.86%. The spot price of Inner Mongolia silicon - manganese was reported at 5630, down 50 yuan/ton. The production has been on an upward trend since mid - May. After the recent price increase, the inventory has decreased for 5 consecutive weeks to a neutral level. The port inventory of imported manganese ore decreased by 32,000 tons. The downstream hot metal production is at a high level. The Inner Mongolia spot profit is - 235 yuan/ton, and the Ningxia spot profit is - 140 yuan/ton. The steel mill procurement tender price in August increased by 150 yuan/ton month - on - month. Technically, the daily K - line is below the 20 - day and 60 - day moving averages. It should be treated as a weak and volatile operation [2]. - On September 1, the ferrosilicon 2511 contract was reported at 5532, down 0.61%. The spot price of Ningxia ferrosilicon was reported at 5290, down 80 yuan/ton. Baosteel Co., Ltd. identified long products and thick plates as new strategic core products. After the profit improvement, the production has rebounded rapidly in recent weeks. The manufacturers' inventory is at a neutral level. The price of Ningxia semi - coke has increased, and the steel demand expectation is generally weak. The Inner Mongolia spot profit is - 185 yuan/ton, and the Ningxia spot profit is - 40 yuan/ton. The steel mill procurement tender price in August increased by 100 yuan/ton month - on - month. Technically, the daily K - line is below the 20 - day and 60 - day moving averages. It should be treated as a weak and volatile operation [2]. 3. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Futures Market - SM主力合约收盘价5736元/吨，环比下降56元/吨；SF主力合约收盘价5532元/吨，环比下降34元/吨 [2] - SM期货合约持仓量560,507手，环比增加14,356手；SF期货合约持仓量429,094手，环比增加16,871手 [2] - 锰硅前20名净持仓 - 64,061手，环比增加7,124手；硅铁前20名净持仓 - 32,186手，环比增加2,020手 [2] - SM5 - 1月合约价差44元/吨，环比增加2元/吨；SF5 - 1月合约价差124元/吨，环比下降20元/吨 [2] - SM仓单65,760张，环比下降807张；SF仓单19,331张，环比下降502张 [2] 3.2 Spot Market - 内蒙古锰硅FeMn68Si18价格5,630元/吨，环比下降50元/吨；内蒙古硅铁FeSi75 - B价格5,410元/吨，环比下降100元/吨 [2] - 贵州锰硅FeMn68Si18价格5,650元/吨，环比下降100元/吨；青海硅铁FeSi75 - B价格5,240元/吨，环比下降50元/吨 [2] - 云南锰硅FeMn68Si18价格5,680元/吨，环比下降70元/吨；宁夏硅铁FeSi75 - B价格5,290元/吨，环比下降80元/吨 [2] - 锰硅指数均值5,689元/吨，环比下降17元/吨；SF主力合约基差 - 242元/吨，环比下降46元/吨 [2] - SM主力合约基差 - 106元/吨，环比增加6元/吨 [2] 3.3 Upstream Situation - 南非矿:Mn38块:天津港价格24元/吨度，环比持平；硅石（98%西北）价格210元/吨，环比持平 [2] - 内蒙古乌海二级冶金焦价格1,200元/吨，环比持平；兰炭（中料神木）价格680元/吨，环比持平 [2] - 锰矿港口库存441.4万吨，环比下降3.2万吨 [2] 3.4 Industry Situation - 锰硅企业开工率47%，环比增加0.63个百分点；硅铁企业开工率36.54%，环比增加0.02个百分点 [2] - 锰硅供应213,395吨，环比增加2,205吨；硅铁供应113,100吨，环比下降300吨 [2] - 锰硅厂家库存149,000吨，环比下降7,000吨；硅铁厂家库存62,910吨，环比增加830吨 [2] - 锰硅全国钢厂库存14.24天，环比下降1.25天；硅铁全国钢厂库存14.25天，环比下降1.13天 [2] - 五大钢种锰硅需求126,656吨，环比增加1,371吨；五大钢种硅铁需求20,573.6吨，环比增加297.7吨 [2] 3.5 Downstream Situation - 247家钢厂高炉开工率83.18%，环比下降0.16个百分点；247家钢厂高炉产能利用率90%，环比下降0.27个百分点 [2] - 粗钢产量7,965.82万吨，环比下降352.58万吨 [2] 3.6 Industry News - 国家发改委提出发展“人工智能 +”，避免无序竞争和一拥而上，未来1 - 2年是人工智能落地关键窗口期 [2] - 央视新闻称我国电能占终端能源消费比重达30%，高于世界平均水平，预计到2035年将提升至40%以上 [2] - 新华社报道欧盟成员国讨论对以色列政策，西班牙外交大臣提议打破以色列封锁等 [2] - 观察者网消息美国商务部将撤销三星和SK海力士中国工厂使用美国设备豁免，限制措施120天后生效 [2]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The supply of soda ash is expected to be ample, demand to stabilize, and prices to remain under pressure, but there may be variables due to anti - involution hype. It is recommended to buy soda ash futures contracts on dips in the short - term [2] - The supply of glass remains at a low level, demand from the real estate sector is weak, but there is a trend of inventory reduction and a potential restocking market. It is recommended to buy glass futures contracts on dips [2] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Futures Market - The closing price of the soda ash main contract is 1271 yuan/ton, down 25 yuan; the closing price of the glass main contract is 1137 yuan/ton, down 45 yuan. The price difference between soda ash and glass is 134 yuan/ton [2] - The open interest of the soda ash main contract is 1,428,510 lots, down 16,149 lots; the open interest of the glass main contract is 1,322,189 lots, up 53,024 lots [2] - The net position of the top 20 soda ash traders is - 300,736 lots, up 37,393 lots; the net position of the top 20 glass traders is - 213,875 lots, down 16,105 lots [2] - The exchange warehouse receipts of soda ash are 5,432 tons, down 265 tons; the exchange warehouse receipts of glass are 2,131 tons, down 210 tons [2] - The price difference between the September and January contracts of soda ash is - 117 yuan/ton, down 1 yuan; the price difference between the September and January contracts of glass is - 194 yuan/ton, down 8 yuan [2] - The basis of soda ash is - 91 yuan/ton, up 20 yuan; the basis of glass is - 77 yuan/ton, up 45 yuan [2] 3.2 Spot Market - The price of North China heavy soda ash is 1,205 yuan/ton, up 5 yuan; the price of Central China heavy soda ash is 1,300 yuan/ton, unchanged [2] - The price of East China light soda ash is 1,255 yuan/ton, unchanged; the price of Central China light soda ash is 1,215 yuan/ton, unchanged [2] - The price of Shahe glass sheets is 1,060 yuan/ton, down 4 yuan; the price of Central China glass sheets is 1,090 yuan/ton, unchanged [2] 3.3 Industry Situation - The operating rate of soda ash plants is 82.47%, down 6.01 percentage points; the operating rate of float glass enterprises is 75.68%, up 0.34 percentage points [2] - The in - production capacity of glass is 15.96 million tons/year, unchanged; the number of in - production glass production lines is 224, up 1 [2] - The inventory of soda ash enterprises is 1.8881 million tons, down 22,700 tons; the inventory of glass enterprises is 62.566 million weight boxes, down 1.04 million weight boxes [2] 3.4 Downstream Situation - The cumulative new construction area of real estate is 35.206 million square meters, up 4.84168 million square meters; the cumulative completed area of real estate is 25.034 million square meters, up 2.46739 million square meters [2] 3.5 Industry News - The Shanghai Cooperation Organization Summit was held in Tianjin, and all foreign leaders arrived in Tianjin [2] - Li Chenggang, China's International Trade Representative and Vice Minister of Commerce, held talks with relevant US government officials and business representatives [2] - The Ministry of Commerce firmly opposes the US revocation of the authorizations of Samsung and other enterprises in China and will take necessary measures [2] - In August, the manufacturing PMI was 49.4%, up 0.1 percentage point from the previous month [2] - From January to July, the total operating income of state - owned and state - holding enterprises in China was flat compared with the same period last year, and the total profit decreased by 3.3% year - on - year [2]

Report Overview - Report Date: September 1, 2025 [1] - Report Type: Precious Metals Industry Daily Report 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No industry investment rating is provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints - The precious metals market has strongly broken through recent levels. The main drivers include the continuous strengthening of the Fed's interest - rate cut expectations, with a rate cut in September becoming the market's baseline scenario. If the subsequent US non - farm data shows weakness, there is a possibility of three rate cuts within the year. Historically, precious metal prices tend to be relatively strong when rate - cut expectations rise [2]. - Trump's continuous pressure on Fed officials threatens the Fed's policy independence, boosting safe - haven sentiment and gold prices. Silver, as a high - beta variety, follows gold's upward movement. Also, the gold - silver ratio is above the historical central level, with room for further repair, potentially pulling up the silver price [2]. - In the previous months, gold was in a range - bound state due to frequent disturbances from tariff and inflation expectations. Recently, the market's rate - cut expectations have been gradually consolidated, and trading sentiment has turned optimistic [2]. - Looking ahead, attention should be paid to the US August PMI and non - farm employment data. If the data deviates from expectations, there may be a phase - wise correction, but a rate cut in September is almost a "fact", and the possibility of a significant decline is low unless the employment data is significantly more optimistic than expected. Technically, both gold and silver are in the overbought zone, with a short - term adjustment need [2]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Futures Market - **Prices**: The closing price of the Shanghai gold main contract was 800.56 yuan/gram, up 15.44 yuan; the closing price of the Shanghai silver main contract was 9775 yuan/kilogram, up 389 yuan [2]. - **Positions**: The main - contract positions of Shanghai gold were 140,691 lots, up 4,000 lots; those of Shanghai silver were 294,815 lots, up 31,945 lots. The net positions of the top 20 in the Shanghai gold main contract were 164,870 lots, up 3,137 lots; those of Shanghai silver were 123,108 lots, up 8,690 lots [2]. - **Warehouse Receipts**: The gold warehouse receipts were 39,744 kilograms, up 120 kilograms; the silver warehouse receipts were 1,207,227 kilograms, up 11,231 kilograms [2]. 3.2 Spot Market - **Prices**: The Shanghai Non - ferrous Metals Network's gold spot price was 795.38 yuan/gram, up 2.07 yuan; the silver spot price was 9,656 yuan/kilogram, up 291 yuan [2]. - **Basis**: The basis of the Shanghai gold main contract was - 5.18 yuan/gram, down 0.05 yuan; the basis of the Shanghai silver main contract was - 119 yuan/kilogram, down 58 yuan [2]. 3.3 Supply and Demand - **ETF Holdings**: Gold ETF holdings were 977.68 tons, up 9.74 tons; silver ETF holdings were 15,310 tons, down 22.59 tons [2]. - **CFTC Non - commercial Net Positions**: The gold CFTC non - commercial net positions were 214,311 contracts, up 1,721 contracts; the silver CTFC non - commercial net positions were 46,466 contracts, down 83 contracts [2]. - **Supply and Demand Quantities**: The total quarterly supply of gold was 1,313.01 tons, up 54.84 tons; the total annual supply of silver was 987.8 million troy ounces, down 21.4 million troy ounces. The total quarterly demand for gold was 1,313.01 tons, up 54.83 tons; the total global annual demand for silver was 1,195 million ounces, down 47.4 million ounces [2]. 3.4 Option Market - **Historical Volatility**: The 20 - day historical volatility of gold was 8.21%, up 0.23 percentage points; the 40 - day historical volatility of gold was 9.94%, up 0.03 percentage points [2]. - **Implied Volatility**: The implied volatility of at - the - money call and put options for gold was 16.28%, up 0.42 percentage points [2]. 3.5 Industry News - Trump's global tariff policy and the prosecution for the removal of Fed Governor Cook are facing a final ruling by the US Supreme Court [2]. - Japan and the US are discussing special measures to reduce the burden of "reciprocal tariffs" on Japan and a presidential order to lower auto tariffs [2]. - Despite the US Court of Appeals ruling most of Trump's tariffs illegal, the Trump administration continues trade negotiations [2]. - The market is focused on the upcoming US non - farm payroll data, which may determine the expected scale of the Fed's interest - rate cut later this month [2]. - The US July core PCE price index rose 2.9% year - on - year, the highest since February 2025, and 0.3% month - on - month [2]. - According to the CME "FedWatch", the probability of the Fed keeping interest rates unchanged in September is 12.6%, and the probability of a 25 - basis - point cut is 87.4%. In October, the probability of keeping rates unchanged is 5.6%, a 25 - basis - point cumulative cut is 45.8%, and a 50 - basis - point cumulative cut is 48.6% [2]. 3.6 Price Ranges to Watch - Shanghai Gold 2510 contract: 750 - 850 yuan/gram; Shanghai Silver 2510 contract: 9,600 - 9,900 yuan/kilogram [2]. - London gold price: 3,450 - 3,550 US dollars/ounce; London silver price: 39 - 41 US dollars/ounce [2].

多晶硅产业日报 2025-09-01 免责声明 价上调，多晶硅价格上行，但是需要注意，整体市场产量依旧未减少，同时下游光伏组件上涨价格不明显 本报告中的信息均来源于公开可获得资料，瑞达期货股份有限公司力求准确可靠，但对这些信息的准确性及完整性不做任 ，预计整体难有突破机会，冲高后接近顶部可以尝试短空，操作建议，暂时观望，或者布局看跌期权 何保证，据此投资，责任自负。本报告不构成个人投资建议，客户应考虑本报告中的任何意见或建议是否符合其特定状况。本 报告版权仅为我公司所有，未经书面许可，任何机构和个人不得以任何形式翻版、复制和发布。如引用、刊发，需注明出处为 瑞达期货股份有限公司研究院，且不得对本报告进行有悖原意的引用、删节和修改。 | 项目类别 | 数据指标 | 最新 | 环比 数据指标 | 最新 | 环比 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 期货市场 | 主力收盘价:多晶硅(日,元/吨) | 52285 | 2730 多晶硅11-12价差 | -2550 | -55 | | | 主力持仓量:多晶硅(日,手) | 150409 | 5412 多晶硅-工业硅价差( ...

棉花(纱)产业日报 2025-09-01 响。总体来说，外盘棉花下跌，国内盘面跟随下跌，不过短期国内旧作供应偏紧，加上需求改善预期，对 研究员: 张昕 期货从业资格号F03109641 期货投资咨询从业证书号Z0018457 价格存在支撑，下方空间有限。操作上，建议暂时观望。 免责声明 本报告中的信息均来源于公开可获得资料，瑞达期货股份有限公司力求准确可靠，但对这些信息的准确性及完整性不做任 何保证，据此投资，责任自负。本报告不构成个人投资建议，客户应考虑本报告中的任何意见或建议是否符合其特定状况。本 报告版权仅为我公司所有，未经书面许可，任何机构和个人不得以任何形式翻版、复制和发布。如引用、刊发，需注明出处为 瑞达期货股份有限公司研究院，且不得对本报告进行有悖原意的引用、删节和修改。 | 项目类别 | 数据指标 | 最新 | 环比 数据指标 | 最新 | 环比 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 期货市场 | 郑棉主力合约收盘价(日,元/吨) | 14025 | -215 棉纱主力合约收盘价(日,元/吨) | 20020 | -120 | | | 棉花期货前2 ...

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No industry investment rating is provided in the report. 2. Core View - After continuous sharp increases, the upward momentum has slowed, and the market may experience short - term shock consolidation. With the A - share semi - annual reports mostly disclosed, the market will enter a performance and policy vacuum period. In the current low - interest - rate environment, the transfer of household deposits will inject liquidity into the market. Policy arrangements for long - term capital entry will optimize the A - share investment structure. A - shares with reasonable valuations will attract foreign capital, and there is still an expectation of policy intensification. It is recommended to buy on dips with a light position. [2] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Futures盘面 - IF主力合约（2509）最新4510.6，环比+8.0；IH主力合约（2509）最新2979.6，环比+1.0；IC主力合约（2509）最新7014.8，环比+31.4；IM主力合约（2509）最新7380.6，环比+26.8. - IF - IH当月合约价差1531.0，环比+4.8；IC - IF当月合约价差2504.2，环比+13.6；IM - IC当月合约价差365.8，环比 - 4.0；IC - IH当月合约价差4035.2，环比+18.4；IM - IF当月合约价差2870.0，环比+9.6；IM - IH当月合约价差4401.0，环比+14.4. - IF当季 - 当月 - 22.8，环比 - 5.2；IF下季 - 当月 - 44.4，环比 - 3.0；IH当季 - 当月0.4，环比+0.2；IH下季 - 当月3.6，环比+1.4；IC当季 - 当月 - 156.2，环比 - 1.2；IC下季 - 当月 - 306.2，环比 - 8.8；IM当季 - 当月 - 200.6，环比 - 11.0；IM下季 - 当月 - 385.4，环比 - 19.4. [2] 3.2 Futures持仓头寸 - IF前20名净持仓 - 34,825.00，环比 - 1169.0；IH前20名净持仓 - 16,404.00，环比+448.0；IC前20名净持仓 - 15,916.00，环比+2015.0；IM前20名净持仓 - 52,319.00，环比 - 1240.0. [2] 3.3现货价格 - 沪深300为4523.71，环比+27.0；上证50为2981.20，环比+4.7；中证500为7110.29，环比+66.4；中证1000为7501.15，环比+62.5. - IF主力合约基差 - 13.1，环比 - 22.5；IH主力合约基差 - 1.6，环比 - 5.1；IC主力合约基差 - 95.5，环比 - 48.3；IM主力合约基差 - 120.6，环比 - 48.5. [2] 3.4市场情绪 - A股成交额（日，亿元）27,776.47，环比 - 525.51；两融余额（前一交易日，亿元）22,613.49，环比+174.21；北向成交合计（前一交易日，亿元）3775.60，环比 - 162.49；逆回购（到期量，操作量，亿元） - 2884.0，环比+1827.0；主力资金（昨日，今日，亿元） - 793.82，环比 - 571.43. - 上涨股票比例（日，%）59.11，环比+22.29；Shibor（日，%）1.315，环比 - 0.016. - IO平值看涨期权收盘价（2509）93.20，环比 - 14.00；IO平值看涨期权隐含波动率（%）19.70，环比 - 3.26；IO平值看跌期权收盘价（2509）77.20，环比 - 20.60；IO平值看跌期权隐含波动率（%）19.70，环比 - 3.26. - 沪深300指数20日波动率（%）13.40，无变化；成交量PCR（%）56.70，环比+7.07；持仓量PCR（%）86.54，环比+1.29. [2] 3.5 Wind市场强弱分析 - 全部A股6.50，环比+1.40；技术面5.90，环比+2.30；资金面7.00，环比+0.50. [2] 3.6行业消息 - 中国8月官方制造业PMI、非制造业PMI和综合PMI分别为49.4%、50.3%和50.5%，环比升0.1、0.2和0.3个百分点. - 截至8月30日，A股已有5424家上市公司披露2025年半年报。上半年营收总计34.99万亿元，同比增长0.02%；归母净利润总计2.99万亿元，同比增长2.45%.其中4178家实现盈利（占比77%），2908家归母净利润同比增长（54%），661家增幅超100%. [2] 3.7重点关注数据 - 9/2 17:00 欧元区8月HCPI、核心HCPI初值；22:00 美国8月ISM制造业PMI. - 9/3 22:00 美国7月JOLTs职位空缺. - 9/4 19:30 - 20:30 美国8月挑战者企业裁员人数、ADP就业人数、7月贸易帐. - 9/5 20:30 美国8月非农就业人数、失业率、劳动参与率. [3]

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No investment rating information is provided in the report. 2. Report's Core View - The alumina market is expected to gradually recover with the arrival of the traditional peak season, with a slight increase in supply and stable demand. It is recommended to conduct light - position range - bound trading [2]. - The electrolytic aluminum market is in a situation of a small and stable increase in supply and a gradual recovery in demand, with a positive industry outlook. Light - position range - bound trading is also advised [2]. - The cast aluminum market may see a slight reduction in supply and an increase in demand. It is recommended to conduct light - position short - selling trading at high prices [2]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Futures Market - **Aluminum - related Futures**: The closing price of the Shanghai Aluminum main contract was 20,645 yuan/ton, down 95 yuan; the closing price of the alumina futures main contract was 3,008 yuan/ton, down 28 yuan. The positions of the Shanghai Aluminum main contract decreased by 15,429 lots, while the positions of the alumina main contract increased by 7,078 lots [2]. - **LME Aluminum**: The three - month quote of LME electrolytic aluminum was 2,619 US dollars/ton, up 12 US dollars; LME aluminum inventory increased by 1,873 tons to 481,050 tons [2]. - **Other Aluminum Products**: The closing price of the cast aluminum alloy main contract was 20,275 yuan/ton, down 75 yuan; the positions decreased by 127 lots [2]. Spot Market - **Aluminum Spot**: The price of Shanghai Non - ferrous A00 aluminum was 20,620 yuan/ton, down 110 yuan; the price of Yangtze River Non - ferrous A00 aluminum was 20,720 yuan/ton, down 130 yuan [2]. - **Alumina Spot**: The alumina spot price in Shanghai Non - ferrous was 3,150 yuan/ton, down 5 yuan [2]. Upstream Situation - **Alumina**: Alumina production was 756.49 million tons, down 18.44 million tons; demand was 722.07 million tons, up 25.88 million tons; supply - demand balance was 16.32 million tons, down 10.82 million tons. The import and export volumes both increased [2]. - **Aluminum Scrap**: The average price of crushed raw aluminum in Foshan and Shandong decreased by 50 yuan/ton. China's import and export volumes of aluminum scrap increased [2]. Industry Situation - **Electrolytic Aluminum**: The import and export volumes of primary aluminum increased. The total production capacity was 4,523.20 million tons, up 2.50 million tons; the production was 548.37 million tons, down 39.00 million tons [2]. - **Aluminum Products**: The production of aluminum products decreased, while the export volume of unwrought aluminum and aluminum products increased [2]. - **Recycled Aluminum Alloy Ingot**: The production increased, while the built - in production capacity decreased [2]. Downstream and Application - **Automobile**: The national real estate climate index decreased. The production of automobiles was 251.02 million vehicles, down 29.84 million vehicles [2]. Option Situation - The historical volatility of Shanghai Aluminum for 20 days increased by 0.28%, while that for 40 days decreased by 0.40%. The implied volatility of the Shanghai Aluminum main contract at - the - money decreased slightly, and the put - call ratio decreased [2]. Industry News - The US economic data shows a mixed situation, with the Fed hinting at a September interest rate cut. China's economic climate is generally expanding, but the auto circulation industry's climate has declined [2]. - The global auto market is at a peak level, and the performance of Chinese listed companies in the first half of 2025 is good in some industries [2].