焦煤焦炭产业日报 2025/9/1 | 项目类别 | 数据指标 | 最新 | 环比 | 数据指标 | 最新 | 环比 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | JM主力合约收盘价（日，元/吨） | 1118.50 | -32.50↓ | J主力合约收盘价（日，元/吨） | 1594.50 | -48.50↓ | | 期货市场 | JM期货合约持仓量（日，手） | 920229.00 | +10170.00↑ | J期货合约持仓量（日，手） | 52306.00 | +3566.00↑ | | | 焦煤前20名合约净持仓（日，手） | -135349.00 | -1871.00↓ | 焦炭前20名合约净持仓（日，手） | -5127.00 | +167.00↑ | | | JM5-1月合约价差（日，元/吨） | 49.00 | +7.00↑ | J5-1月合约价差（日，元/吨） | 96.50 | +6.00↑ | | | 焦煤仓单（日，张） | 300.00 | +300.00↑ | 焦炭仓单（日，张） | 970.00 | +60.00↑ | | | ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content 2. Core View of the Report - Import volume has increased significantly and is at its peak. Northern sugar mills will start production later, and the new - season sugar production is expected to be at a near - four - year high. These factors will suppress the sugar price to fluctuate downward. It is recommended to hold short positions and set stop - losses to control risks [2] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Futures Market - The closing price of the futures main contract for sugar is 5,609 yuan/ton, with a change of 5; the main contract position is 358,781 lots, with an increase of 1,010. The number of warehouse receipts is 13,434, a decrease of 482. The net long position of the top 20 futures holders is - 17,562 lots, a decrease of 401. The total number of effective warehouse receipt forecasts is 7, an increase of 6 [2] 3.2 Spot Market - The estimated import - processing price of Brazilian sugar within the quota is 4,552 yuan/ton, an increase of 13; that of Thai sugar is 4,542 yuan/ton, an increase of 17. The estimated price of imported Brazilian sugar outside the quota (50% tariff) is 5,786 yuan/ton, and that of Thai sugar is 5,772 yuan/ton. The spot price of white sugar in Kunming is 5,825 yuan/ton, unchanged; in Nanning, it is 5,910 yuan/ton, a decrease of 50; in Liuzhou, it is 6,000 yuan/ton, unchanged [2] 3.3 Upstream Situation - The national sugar - crop sowing area is 1,480 thousand hectares, an increase of 60. The sowing area of sugar - cane in Guangxi is 835.09 thousand hectares, a decrease of 12.86 [2] 3.4 Industry Situation - The cumulative national sugar production is 1,116.21 million tons, an increase of 5.49; the cumulative national sugar sales volume is 811.38 million tons, an increase of 86.92. The national industrial sugar inventory is 304.83 million tons, a decrease of 81.43. The national sugar sales rate is 72.69%, an increase of 7.47. The monthly sugar import volume is 740,000 tons, an increase of 320,000. The total monthly sugar exports from Brazil are 359.37 million tons, an increase of 23.47 [2] 3.5 Downstream Situation - The monthly output of refined sugar is 41 million tons, an increase of 7.3; the monthly output of soft drinks is 1,796.6 million tons, a decrease of 46.2 [2] 3.6 Option Market - The implied volatility of at - the - money call options for sugar is 8.27%, unchanged; that of at - the - money put options is also 8.27%, unchanged. The 20 - day historical volatility is 6.9%, an increase of 0.27; the 60 - day historical volatility is 6.41%, an increase of 0.26 [2] 3.7 Industry News - The Brazilian Sugarcane Industry Association reported that in the first half of August, sugar production in the central - southern main producing area of Brazil increased by 15.96% year - on - year to 3.62 million tons. Last Friday, the ICE raw sugar October contract closed down 0.97%. On Monday, the sugar 2601 contract closed up 0.16%. Internationally, the production prospects of major Asian sugar - producing countries are good, and Brazil's sugar production increased in the first half of August. Meanwhile, demand shows signs of improvement, and raw sugar prices continue to fluctuate at a low level [2] 3.8 View Summary - Internally, the profit window outside the quota remains open, import pressure is released, and the sugar import volume in July increased significantly month - on - month, reaching the highest level in the same period in the past decade. August - September is still the peak period. Beet sugar will start production in September, leading to a temporary increase in supply. On the demand side, the upcoming double - festival stocking will boost consumption. In terms of inventory, due to the good production and sales progress in the early stage, inventory pressure is not large, but the increase in the amount of processed sugar has significantly slowed down the current de - stocking process. The new - season sugar production is expected to remain at a high level in the past four years [2]

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Core View of the Report - The low inventory of old apples, high expectations for the opening price of late - maturing Fuji apples, and demand expectations for the Mid - Autumn Festival will boost prices. It is recommended to hold long positions and set stop - losses to control risks. Attention should be paid to the market situation of early - maturing Fuji apples [2] Summary by Relevant Catalogs Futures Market - The closing price of the October apple futures contract is 8374 yuan/ton. The holding volume of the main contract is 58414 hands, with a decrease of 8249 hands. The net buying volume of the top 20 futures positions is 5378 hands, with a decrease of 1485 hands [2] Spot Market - The spot prices of apples in Gansu Jingning, Shandong Yiyuan, and Shaanxi Luochuan (paper - bag 75 and above) are 4 yuan/jin, 2.3 yuan/jin, and 4 yuan/jin respectively [2] Upstream Situation - The annual national apple output is 5128.51 million tons. The weekly average wholesale price of apples is 9.74 yuan/kg, with an increase of 0.04 yuan/kg compared to the previous period. The weekly average wholesale price of Fuji apples is 9.54 yuan/kg, with an increase of 0.04 yuan/kg. The total national apple cold - storage inventory is 39.45 million tons, with a decrease of 6.56 million tons. The capacity utilization ratio of Shandong apple cold - storage is 0.07, with a decrease of 0.01. The capacity utilization ratio of Shaanxi apple cold - storage is 0.01. The monthly apple export volume is 50000 tons, with an increase of 10000 tons [2] Industry Situation - The monthly apple export value is 6328.4 million US dollars, with a decrease of 212886 million US dollars. The monthly import value of fresh, dried fruits and nuts is 1742602 million US dollars. The weekly profit of first - and second - grade paper - bag 80 apple storage merchants is 0.4 yuan/jin [2] Downstream Situation - The weekly average wholesale price of tangerines is 8.69 yuan/kg, with a decrease of 1.07 yuan/kg. The weekly wholesale price of bananas is 5.7 yuan/kg, with a decrease of 0.05 yuan/kg. The weekly wholesale price of watermelons is 3.5 yuan/kg. The early - morning average daily arrival volume of trucks at the Guangdong Jiangmen wholesale market is 11.4 vehicles, with an increase of 3.8 vehicles. The early - morning average daily arrival volume of trucks at the Guangdong Xiaqiao wholesale market is 4.8 vehicles. The early - morning average daily arrival volume of trucks at the Guangdong Chalong wholesale market is 22.2 vehicles, with an increase of 7.2 vehicles [2] Option Market - The implied volatility of at - the - money call options for apples is 21.38%, with an increase of 1.51%. The implied volatility of at - the - money put options for apples is 3.22%, with a decrease of 18.16% [2] Industry News - On September 1, 2025, early - maturing Fuji apples were sporadically listed in the western production areas. Merchants' enthusiasm for purchasing high - quality goods is high, and the semi - commodity order price is maintained at 4.00 - 5.00 yuan/jin. The sales of Shandong's inventory Fuji apples have slightly improved, and cold - storage facilities are actively disposing of inventory [2] Viewpoint Summary - According to preliminary estimates, the national apple output in the new season is 3736.64 million tons, an increase of 85.93 million tons or 2.35% compared to the 2024 - 2025 production season. As of August 27, 2025, the inventory of apple cold - storage in the main production areas is 33.97 million tons, a decrease of 5.48 million tons compared to the previous week. The overall quality of early - maturing fruits is poor, and there are concerns about the quality of late - maturing Fuji apples. Due to the expected low excellent - fruit rate, the opening price of late - maturing Fuji apples is expected to be high [2]

Report Overview - Report Date: September 1, 2025 [1] - Report Type: Daily Report on the Pig Industry 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided 2. Core Viewpoints - On September 1, 2025, the national daily pig slaughter volume of key breeding enterprises decreased by 15.06% compared to Friday, and the 2511 pig contract rose 0.33% on Monday [2] - Due to the implementation of the transfer policy on September 1st and the reduction at the beginning of the month, the short - term supply pressure has eased, but the medium - term supply pressure remains as September corresponds to the peak of the previous increasing cycle of fertile sows [2] - The price difference between fattening pigs and standard pigs continues to widen, providing conditions for later pressure on inventory and secondary fattening [2] - The pig - grain ratio has triggered a third - level warning, and the state has launched a combination of "new purchases for storage" and "rotational purchases for storage" to stabilize the market [2] - With sufficient pig supply, increased demand from schools after the start of the semester, and the continuous recovery of the slaughterhouse's operating rate [2] - In general, the short - term supply pressure still exists, suppressing pig prices, but the short - term slaughter rhythm may slow down, and with the recovery of the operating rate and the storage purchase policy, the short - term decline space is expected to be limited, and the market will operate weakly with fluctuations. It is recommended to sell short on rebounds [2] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Futures Market - The closing price of the main futures contract for pigs is 13,625 yuan/ton, with a ring - to - ring increase of 70 yuan/ton; the main contract position is 75,464 lots, with a ring - to - ring increase of 1,828 lots [2] - The number of warehouse receipts for pigs is 430 lots, with no change; the net long position of the top 20 futures holders is - 14,798 lots, with a ring - to - ring increase of 1,278 lots [2] 3.2 Spot Market - The pig price in Zhumadian, Henan is 14,100 yuan/ton, with a ring - to - ring increase of 400 yuan/ton; in Siping, Jilin is 13,600 yuan/ton, with a ring - to - ring increase of 100 yuan/ton; in Yunfu, Guangdong is 14,500 yuan/ton, with a ring - to - ring decrease of 400 yuan/ton [2] - The main basis for pigs is 475 yuan/ton, with a ring - to - ring increase of 330 yuan/ton [2] 3.3 Upstream Situation - The monthly pig inventory is 42,4470,000 heads, with an increase of 7160,000 heads; the inventory of fertile sows is 4,0420,000 heads, with a decrease of 10,000 heads [2] 3.4 Industry Situation - The year - on - year change of CPI for the current month is 0%, with a decrease of 0.1 percentage points [2] - The spot price of soybean meal in Zhangjiagang is 3,050 yuan/ton, with a ring - to - ring increase of 10 yuan/ton; the spot price of corn is 2,364.12 yuan/ton, with a ring - to - ring decrease of 0.59 yuan/ton [2] - The Dalian Commodity Exchange's pig feed cost index is 908.84, with a ring - to - ring increase of 0.95 [2] - The monthly output of feed is 28,273,000 tons, with a decrease of 1,104,000 tons [2] - The price of binary fertile sows is 1,625 yuan/head, with a ring - to - ring decrease of 2 yuan/head [2] - The breeding profit from purchasing piglets is - 148.41 yuan/head, with a ring - to - ring increase of 3.39 yuan/head; the breeding profit from self - breeding and self - raising pigs is 32.24 yuan/head, with a ring - to - ring decrease of 1.71 yuan/head [2] - The monthly import volume of pork is 90,000 tons, with no change; the average price of white - striped chickens in the main producing areas is 14.3 yuan/kg, with a ring - to - ring decrease of 0.1 yuan/kg [2] 3.5 Downstream Situation - The monthly slaughter volume of designated pig slaughtering enterprises is 31,660,000 heads, with an increase of 1,600,000 heads [2] - The monthly total retail sales of social consumer goods in the catering industry is 450.41 billion yuan, with a decrease of 20.35 billion yuan [2]

慢恢复阶段。库存方面，国外铅库存下跌，国内库存上涨，仓单数量下跌，整体库存不变。从目前库存数 | 项目类别 | 数据指标 | 最新 | 环比 数据指标 | 最新 | 环比 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | 沪铅主力合约收盘价(日,元/吨) | 16855 | -25 LME3个月铅报价(日,美元/吨) | 1991 | 7.5 | | 期货市场 | 09-10月合约价差:沪铅(日,元/吨) | -45 | -5 沪铅持仓量(日,手) | 82335 | 421 | | | 沪铅前20名净持仓(日,手) | -1297 | 121 沪铅仓单(日,吨) | 56801 | -524 | | | 上期所库存(周,吨) | 64672 | 982 LME铅库存(日,吨) | 261050 | -1450 | | | 上海有色网1#铅现货价(日,元/吨) | 16725 | 0 长江有色市场1#铅现货价(日,元/吨) | 16910 | 0 | | 现货市场 | 铅主力合约基差(日,元/吨) | -130 | 25 LME铅升贴水(0-3)(日,美元/吨) | -4 ...

碳酸锂产业日报 2025/9/1 | 项目类别 | 数据指标 环比 数据指标 | 最新 | | 最新 | 环比 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | 主力合约收盘价（日，元/吨） | 75,560.00 | -1620.00↓ 前20名净持仓（日，手） | -135,568.00 | -267.00↓ | | 期货市场 | 主力合约持仓量（日，手） | 339,133.00 | -7472.00↓ 近远月合约价差（日，元/吨） | 120.00 | +40.00↑ | | | 广期所仓单（日，手/吨） | 29,887.00 | +930.00↑ | | | | 现货市场 | 电池级碳酸锂平均价（日，元/吨） | 78,350.00 | -1300.00↓ 工业级碳酸锂平均价（日，万元/吨） | 76,050.00 | -1300.00↓ | | | Li₂CO₃主力合约基差（日，元/吨） | 2,790.00 | +320.00↑ | | | | 上游情况 | 锂辉石精矿(6%CIF中国)平均价（日，美元/吨） | 950.00 | 0.00 磷锂铝石平均价 ...

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Report's Core View - The Shanghai copper main contract fluctuates strongly with increased positions, rising spot premium, and strengthening basis. The cost - support logic for copper prices remains strong due to negative TC fees and rising raw material prices. The supply of domestic refined copper may decline slightly as port inventories of copper concentrates are low and raw material supply is tight. The downstream export demand may fall due to high US tariffs on copper semi - products, but domestic demand is expected to recover with policy support and the approaching traditional peak season. The overall inventory will remain at a medium - low level and gradually decrease with the recovery of consumption. The option market sentiment is bullish with a slightly rising implied volatility. Technically, the 60 - minute MACD shows signs of red bar convergence. It is recommended to conduct short - term long trading at low prices with light positions, while controlling the rhythm and trading risks [2]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Futures Market - The closing price of the Shanghai copper futures main contract is 79,780 yuan/ton, up 370 yuan; the LME 3 - month copper price is 9,940.50 dollars/ton, up 38.50 dollars. The main contract's monthly spread is 30 yuan/ton, up 20 yuan; the position volume of the Shanghai copper main contract is 180,644 hands, up 6,818 hands. The top 20 futures positions in Shanghai copper are - 12,236 hands, up 6,550 hands. The LME copper inventory is 158,900 tons, up 950 tons; the Shanghai Futures Exchange's cathode copper inventory is 79,748 tons, down 1,950 tons; the LME copper cancelled warrants are 13,050 tons, down 50 tons; the Shanghai Futures Exchange's cathode copper warrants are 20,200 tons, down 2,856 tons [2]. 现货市场 - The SMM 1 copper spot price is 79,900 yuan/ton, up 510 yuan; the Yangtze River Non - ferrous Market 1 copper spot price is 79,955 yuan/ton, up 620 yuan. The CIF (bill of lading) price of Shanghai electrolytic copper is 60 dollars/ton, unchanged; the average premium of Yangshan copper is 56.50 dollars/ton, unchanged. The basis of the CU main contract is 120 yuan/ton, up 140 yuan; the LME copper premium (0 - 3) is - 80.26 dollars/ton, up 2.53 dollars [2]. Upstream Situation - The import volume of copper ore and concentrates is 256.01 million tons, up 21.05 million tons. The rough smelting fee (TC) of domestic copper smelters is - 41.48 dollars/kiloton, down 0.33 dollars. The price of copper concentrates in Jiangxi is 70,300 yuan/metal ton, up 640 yuan; in Yunnan, it is 71,000 yuan/metal ton, up 640 yuan. The processing fee for rough copper in the south is 700 yuan/ton, down 100 yuan; in the north, it is 700 yuan/ton, down 50 yuan. The output of refined copper is 127 million tons, down 3.20 million tons; the import volume of unwrought copper and copper products is 480,000 tons, up 20,000 tons [2]. Industry Situation - The social inventory of copper is 41.82 million tons, up 0.43 million tons. The price of 1 bright copper wire in Shanghai is 0 yuan/ton, down 55,290 yuan; the price of 2 copper (94 - 96%) in Shanghai is 68,250 yuan/ton, up 350 yuan. The ex - factory price of 98% sulfuric acid of Jiangxi Copper is 640 yuan/ton, unchanged [2]. Downstream and Application - The output of copper products is 216.94 million tons, down 4.51 million tons. The cumulative completed investment in power grid infrastructure is 331.5 billion yuan, up 40.434 billion yuan. The cumulative completed investment in real estate development is 5357.977 billion yuan, up 692.221 billion yuan. The monthly output of integrated circuits is 4,689,220,700 pieces, up 183,435,300 pieces [2]. Option Situation - The 20 - day historical volatility of Shanghai copper is 7.26%, up 0.11%; the 40 - day historical volatility is 9.06%, down 0.04%. The implied volatility of the current - month at - the - money IV is 9.69%, up 0.0106%; the put - call ratio of at - the - money options is 1.26, up 0.0541 [2]. Industry News - The Fed's Daly hinted at a September rate cut, saying there is a tension between the dual goals. The US core PCE price index in July rose 2.9% year - on - year, a new high since February 2025. China's economic sentiment generally continued to expand in August. The China Automobile Dealers Inventory Alert Index in August was 57.0%, up 0.8 percentage points year - on - year and down 0.2 percentage points month - on - month. In July, the world's automobile sales reached 7.73 million units, up 7% year - on - year and down 4% month - on - month. In the first half of 2025, the new energy vehicle production and sales continued to grow at a high rate, the home appliance industry's revenue and net profit increased by over 9%, and the consumer electronics industry's revenue increased by 24.82% [2].

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content Core Viewpoints of the Report - This week, the soda ash futures declined by 2.26%, showing a trend of rising first and then falling, while the glass futures rose by 0.77%, presenting an overall fluctuating upward trend [6]. - For soda ash, the domestic production rate and output are expected to decline, but the short - term market supply remains ample. The demand is stable, and the price will continue to face pressure, though there may be variables with anti - involution speculation. For glass, the supply is at a low level, the real - estate situation is not optimistic, and the inventory is in a fluctuating de - stocking trend, with a possible restocking market next week [6]. - The recommended trading range for SA2601 contract is 1260 - 1340, with a stop - loss range of 1240 - 1360. For FG2601, the recommended operating range is 1130 - 1200, and the stop - loss range is 1100 - 1230 [6]. Summary According to the Directory 1. Weekly Key Points Summary - **Market Review**: Soda ash futures decreased by 2.26% this week, with a first - rising - then - falling trend. Glass futures increased by 0.77%, showing an overall fluctuating upward trend. The soda ash price rose in the first half of the week due to maintenance news and Shanghai's real - estate relaxation news, but declined in the second half due to the spot price. The glass price rose in the first half but fell later due to high inventory and doubts about demand [6]. - **Market Outlook**: For soda ash, the supply may decline as the production rate and output are falling, and maintenance is expected to increase. The demand is stable, with a slight increase from photovoltaic glass. The inventory is decreasing, but the de - stocking process may be repeated. For glass, the supply is at a low level, the real - estate situation is poor, the downstream orders are slightly increasing, and the inventory is in a de - stocking trend with possible fluctuations [6]. 2. Futures and Spot Markets - **Futures Prices**: This week, soda ash futures prices declined, and glass futures prices increased [6]. - **Spot Prices and Basis**: As of August 28, 2025, the mainstream price of heavy - soda ash in the Shahe market was 1210 yuan/ton, a week - on - week increase of 2.5 yuan/ton, and the basis was - 101 yuan/ton. The price of 5.0mm large - plate glass in the Shahe market was 1060 yuan/ton, a week - on - week decrease of 8 yuan/ton, and the basis was - 114 yuan/ton. The soda ash - glass price difference weakened this week and is expected to strengthen next week [14][18][22]. 3. Industry Chain Analysis - **Soda Ash Production**: As of August 28, 2025, the national soda ash operating rate was 82.58%, a week - on - week decrease of 6.17%, and the weekly output was 71.91 tons, a week - on - week increase of 6.78%. The profit of soda ash enterprises decreased, and the production is expected to continue to decline next week [28]. - **Glass Production**: The number of cold - repaired glass production lines decreased by 1. As of August 28, 2025, there were 296 glass production lines (excluding zombie lines), 223 in production, and 72 cold - repaired. The national float - glass output was 111.7 tons, with no week - on - week change, and the output is expected to remain low next week [40]. - **Photovoltaic Glass**: As of August 28, 2025, the capacity utilization rate of photovoltaic glass enterprises was 68.37%, a week - on - week increase of 0.31%, and the daily melting volume was 88,580 tons/day, a week - on - week increase of 400 tons/day, both expected to rise slightly next week [44]. - **Inventory**: As of August 28, 2025, the inventory of soda ash enterprises was 188.81 tons, a week - on - week decrease of 0.48%, and the total glass inventory was 62.566 million heavy boxes, a week - on - week decrease of 1.64%, both expected to continue de - stocking next week [50]. - **Downstream Demand**: As of August 15, 2025, the average order days of national deep - processing sample enterprises were 9.65 days, showing a slight increase but still at a low level [54].

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content Core Viewpoints of the Report - The macro - face was affected by the Fed's potential interest - rate cut information, and market sentiment was volatile. The short - term market was mainly priced by the industry. With the approaching of the September 3 parade, funds were cautious, and the alloy trended weaker under the weakening of the sector. Silicon manganese was expected to move in a volatile manner [7]. Summary According to the Directory 1. Week - to - Week Summary - **Macro Aspect**: In China, the single - month electricity consumption in August exceeded 1 trillion kWh, and power supply was stable after the peak summer. Multiple small and medium - sized banks in Jiangsu and Nanjing lowered deposit interest rates. From January to July, the total profit of the ferrous metal smelting and rolling processing industry was 64.36 billion yuan, with a year - on - year increase of 5175.4%. Overseas, Fed Chairman Powell was open to interest - rate cuts, and some Fed officials supported interest - rate cuts in September [7]. - **Supply and Demand**: The production of silicon manganese has been on the rise since mid - May. After the recent price increase, the inventory has decreased for 5 consecutive weeks to a neutral level. The port inventory of imported manganese ore decreased by 20,000 tons, and the downstream hot metal production was at a high level. The spot profit in Inner Mongolia was - 80 yuan/ton, and in Ningxia was - 320 yuan/ton. The steel mill procurement and tender price in August increased by 150 yuan/ton month - on - month [7]. - **Technical Aspect**: The weekly K - line of the silicon manganese main contract was below the 60 - day moving average, showing a bearish trend [7]. - **Strategy Suggestion**: The market was mainly priced by the industry in the short term, and silicon manganese should be treated as moving in a volatile manner [7]. 2. Futures and Spot Markets - **Futures Market**: As of August 29, the silicon manganese futures contract open interest was 546,000 lots, a decrease of 43,198 lots compared with the previous period. The 1 - 9 contract month spread was 116, an increase of 26 points. As of August 28, the silicon manganese warehouse receipt quantity was 66,783, a decrease of 5,037. The price difference between the silicon manganese and silicon - iron contracts increased by 10 points [13][15]. - **Spot Market**: As of August 29, the silicon manganese spot price in Inner Mongolia was 5,720 yuan/ton, a decrease of 30 yuan/ton. The basis was - 72 yuan/ton, an increase of 10 points [24]. 3. Industrial Chain Situation - **Production and Inventory**: The production of silicon manganese has been rising since mid - May. The开工 rate of 187 independent silicon manganese enterprises was 47%, an increase of 0.63%. The daily average production was 30,485 tons, an increase of 315 tons. The weekly demand of five major steel types for silicon manganese was 126,656 tons, an increase of 1.09%, and the weekly supply of national silicon manganese was 213,395 tons, an increase of 1.04%. The inventory has decreased for 8 consecutive weeks to a neutral level [27][32]. - **Upstream**: As of August 28, the price of South32 South African semi - carbonate lump at Tianjin Port was 34.2 yuan/ton degree, a decrease of 0.6. The electricity price in Ningxia and Inner Mongolia was flat. The port inventory of imported manganese ore decreased by 20,000 tons. The spot production cost in the northern region was 5,840 yuan/ton, a decrease of 20, and the profit was - 160 yuan/ton, an increase of 10. In the southern region, the cost was 6,250 yuan/ton, a decrease of 20, and the profit was - 525 yuan/ton, a decrease of 5 [36][42][46]. - **Downstream**: The daily average hot metal production of 247 steel mills was 240,130 tons, a decrease of 620 tons compared with the previous week but an increase of 19,240 tons compared with the same period last year. The silicon manganese tender price of HBIS in August was 6,000 yuan/ton, an increase of 150 yuan/ton compared with July [50].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - For rapeseed oil, it is recommended to participate with a bullish bias. The market is affected by multiple factors such as the expected increase in Canadian rapeseed production, China's anti - dumping measures, supply and demand in the domestic market, and trade negotiation news. The market may maintain a narrow - range oscillation [7][8]. - For rapeseed meal, it is recommended to adopt a bullish mindset and pay attention to Sino - US and Sino - Canadian economic and trade relations. The market is influenced by factors like the expected high yield of US soybeans, domestic supply and demand, and trade negotiation news [10]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1. Weekly Summary - **Rapeseed oil**: The 01 contract closed at 9789 yuan/ton, down 101 yuan/ton from the previous week. Canada's expected increase in rapeseed production and China's anti - dumping measures may pressure Canadian rapeseed prices. Although the domestic supply of vegetable oil is relatively loose in the short - term, the low oil mill operating rate and fewer rapeseed purchases in the third quarter reduce supply pressure. The market is affected by trade negotiation news and may maintain a narrow - range oscillation [8]. - **Rapeseed meal**: The 01 contract closed at 2513 yuan/ton, down 30 yuan/ton from the previous week. The expected high yield of US soybeans brings supply pressure, but the decrease in planting area provides support. In the domestic market, the low arrival of rapeseed in the near - term and the peak season of aquaculture increase demand, but the substitution advantage of soybean meal weakens the demand for rapeseed meal. Trade negotiation news also affects the market [11]. 3.2. Futures and Spot Market - **Price trends**: Rapeseed oil futures closed down this week with a total open interest of 263,601 lots, down 20,684 lots from last week. Rapeseed meal futures declined from a high level with a total open interest of 414,170 lots, down 6,858 lots from the previous week [16]. - **Top 20 net positions**: The top 20 net positions of rapeseed oil futures were +7338, with a slight increase in net long positions. The top 20 net positions of rapeseed meal futures were - 13,689, with an increase in net short positions [22]. - **Warehouse receipts**: The registered warehouse receipts of rapeseed oil were 3,887 lots, and those of rapeseed meal were 6,410 lots [28][29]. - **Spot prices and basis**: The spot price of rapeseed oil in Jiangsu was 9,890 yuan/ton, down from last week, and the basis was +101 yuan/ton. The spot price of rapeseed meal in Nantong, Jiangsu was 2,560 yuan/ton, with little change, and the basis was +47 yuan/ton [35][41]. - **Inter - monthly spreads**: The 1 - 5 spread of rapeseed oil was +164 yuan/ton, and that of rapeseed meal was +89 yuan/ton, both at medium levels in recent years [49]. - **Futures - spot ratios**: The ratio of rapeseed oil to rapeseed meal for the 01 contract was 3.895, and the average spot price ratio was 3.86 [52]. - **Spreads between rapeseed oil and other oils/meals**: The 01 contract spread between rapeseed oil and soybean oil was 1,431 yuan/ton, and that between rapeseed oil and palm oil was 473 yuan/ton, both with relatively oscillating spreads this week. The 01 contract spread between soybean meal and rapeseed meal was 542 yuan/ton, and the spot spread was 540 yuan/ton [62][68]. 3.3. Industry Chain Situation 3.3.1. Rapeseed - **Supply - side - Inventory and imports**: As of August 22, 2025, the total rapeseed inventory in oil mills was 150,000 tons. The estimated rapeseed arrivals in August, September, and October 2025 were 200,000 tons, 100,000 tons, and 150,000 tons respectively [74]. - **Supply - side - Import crushing profit**: As of August 28, the spot crushing profit of imported rapeseed was +867 yuan/ton [78]. - **Supply - side - Oil mill crushing volume**: As of the 34th week of 2025, the rapeseed crushing volume of major coastal oil mills was 45,000 tons, down 4,000 tons from last week, with an operating rate of 11.01% [82]. - **Supply - side - Monthly imports**: In July 2025, China's rapeseed import volume was 176,000 tons, a year - on - year decrease of 56.63% and a month - on - month decrease of 0.85 tons [86]. 3.3.2. Rapeseed oil - **Supply - side - Inventory and imports**: As of the end of the 34th week of 2025, the domestic inventory of imported and crushed rapeseed oil was 722,000 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 3.02%. In July 2025, the rapeseed oil import volume was 133,600 tons, a year - on - year increase of 16.86% and a month - on - month decrease of 16,700 tons [90]. - **Demand - side - Consumption and production**: As of June 30, 2025, the monthly output of edible vegetable oil was 4.769 million tons. As of July 31, 2025, the monthly catering revenue was 450.41 billion yuan [94]. - **Demand - side - Contract volume**: As of the end of the 34th week of 2025, the domestic contract volume of imported and crushed rapeseed oil was 97,000 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 4.06% [98]. 3.3.3. Rapeseed meal - **Supply - side - Inventory**: As of the end of the 34th week of 2025, the domestic inventory of imported and crushed rapeseed meal was 21,000 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 17.65% [102]. - **Supply - side - Imports**: In July 2025, the rapeseed meal import volume was 183,100 tons, a year - on - year decrease of 3.00% and a month - on - month decrease of 87,200 tons [106]. - **Demand - side - Feed production**: As of July 31, 2025, the monthly feed output was 2.8273 million tons [110]. 3.4. Option Market Analysis - The implied volatility of rapeseed meal options was 21.77% as of August 29, up 0.07% from the previous week, at a slightly medium level compared to the 20 - day, 40 - day, and 60 - day historical volatility of the underlying asset [114].