Report Summary 1. Strategy Suggestion - The short - term price of the br2510 contract is expected to fluctuate between 11,660 and 12,200 [7]. 2. Market Review and Outlook - **Review**: This week, the price of cis - butadiene rubber in the Shandong market showed a volatile and upward trend, with the spot price fluctuating between 11,550 and 12,050 yuan/ton. Sinopec and PetroChina raised the price of high - cis butadiene rubber by 200 yuan/ton. As of August 28, 2025, the mainstream ex - factory price of high - cis butadiene rubber in China was between 12,100 and 12,200 yuan/ton [8]. - **Outlook**: Most previously shut - down butadiene rubber plants have restarted, increasing domestic production. With the rise in butadiene and mainstream cis - butadiene rubber supply prices, the shipping pressure on producers has increased, and inventories have generally risen. Next week, the Xinjiang Land cis - butadiene rubber plant is expected to restart, further increasing supply slightly. In terms of demand, most semi - steel tire enterprises' operations were stable, but some had maintenance due to shipping pressure, dragging down the overall capacity utilization rate. Full - steel tire enterprises generally maintained production control, and some had reduced production at the end of the week due to maintenance. Some enterprises have 3 - 6 days of maintenance planned at the end of the month and early next month, which may still drag down short - term capacity utilization [8]. 3. Futures Market - **Price Movement**: The price of the synthetic rubber futures main contract rose this week, with a weekly increase of 2.06% [12]. - **Position Analysis**: Information about the change in the top 20 positions of cis - butadiene rubber is provided, but specific data is not detailed in the summary [13]. - **Inter - delivery Spread**: As of August 29, the spread between the 10 - 11 contracts of butadiene rubber was 20 [18]. - **Warehouse Receipts**: As of August 29, the warehouse receipts of cis - butadiene rubber were 2,490 tons, unchanged from last week [21]. 4. Spot Market - **Price and Basis**: As of August 28, the price of Qilu Petrochemical BR9000 in the Shandong market was 11,950 yuan/ton, an increase of 200 yuan/ton from last week. The basis of butadiene rubber was - 30 yuan/ton, a decrease of 5 yuan/ton from last week [25]. 5. Upstream Market - **Naphtha and Ethylene Prices**: As of August 28, the CFR mid - price of naphtha in Japan was 593.88 US dollars/ton, an increase of 5.88 US dollars/ton from last week. The CIF mid - price of Northeast Asian ethylene was 842 US dollars/ton, an increase of 12 US dollars/ton from last week [29]. - **Butadiene Capacity Utilization and Port Inventory**: As of August 29, the weekly capacity utilization rate of butadiene was 67.91%, a decrease of 0.26% from last week. The port inventory of butadiene was 24,000 tons, a decrease of 3,300 tons from last week [32]. 6. Industry Situation - **Production and Capacity Utilization**: In July 2025, the domestic production of cis - butadiene rubber was 129,200 tons, an increase of 6,700 tons from the previous month. As of August 28, the weekly capacity utilization rate of domestic cis - butadiene rubber was 75.85%, an increase of 6.7% from last week [36]. - **Production Profit**: As of August 28, the domestic production profit of cis - butadiene rubber was - 478 yuan/ton, a decrease of 20 yuan/ton from last week [39]. - **Inventory**: As of August 29, the domestic social inventory of cis - butadiene rubber was 31,720 tons, an increase of 1,110 tons from last week. The manufacturer inventory was 25,100 tons, an increase of 1,900 tons from last week, and the trader inventory was 6,620 tons, a decrease of 790 tons from last week [43]. 7. Downstream Market - **Tire Capacity Utilization**: As of August 28, the capacity utilization rate of China's semi - steel tire sample enterprises was 70.97%, a month - on - month decrease of 0.90 percentage points and a year - on - year decrease of 8.73 percentage points. The capacity utilization rate of full - steel tire sample enterprises was 64.89%, a month - on - month decrease of 0.08 percentage points and a year - on - year increase of 5.10 percentage points [46]. - **Tire Exports**: In July 2025, China's tire exports were 812,600 tons, a month - on - month increase of 8.87% and a year - on - year increase of 11.48%. From January to July, the cumulative tire exports were 4,933,900 tons, a cumulative year - on - year increase of 7.18%. Among them, the exports of passenger car tires were 325,900 tons, a month - on - month increase of 16.78% and a year - on - year increase of 7.20%. From January to July, the cumulative exports of passenger car tires were 1,940,300 tons, a cumulative year - on - year increase of 2.51%. The exports of truck and bus tires were 454,400 tons, a month - on - month increase of 11.60% and a year - on - year increase of 12.99%. From January to July, the cumulative exports of truck and bus tires were 2,789,100 tons, a cumulative year - on - year increase of 6.52% [49].

Report Summary 1. Industry Investment Rating No investment rating for the industry is provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints - This week, the Shanghai lead futures showed a volatile trend. The main contract 2509 of Shanghai lead futures was active, rising 0.36%. Overall, Shanghai lead prices mainly increased slightly due to decreasing supply and stable demand [4]. - In terms of supply, lead ore production is shrinking due to factors such as declining grades, rising costs, and environmental restrictions. Although the smelter operating rate remains stable, issues like unstable raw material supply and equipment maintenance exist, and the progress of new - capacity launch is slow, resulting in tight overall supply, which supports lead prices. However, the operating rate of primary lead is relatively stronger than that of secondary lead, and some primary lead smelters adjust production decisions according to lead price fluctuations, causing slight fluctuations in primary lead production. The supply of secondary lead shows significant regional differences, with tight supply of waste battery raw materials, low confidence among smelters, and production limitations in some enterprises due to environmental inspections, increasing the uncertainty of secondary lead supply. The operating rate of secondary lead has slightly decreased and remained at a relatively low level, and the profits of secondary lead enterprises have not improved, so the operating rate is expected to remain stable [4]. - On the demand side, lead - acid batteries, as the main consumption area of lead, have relatively stable demand for automobile starting batteries. The traditional "Golden September and Silver October" consumption season is gradually warming up, and the market expects an increase in lead demand in the main consumption areas, and the energy - storage demand in emerging fields shows a good trend. Currently, when prices rise, spot transactions are average, and downstream enterprises are still mostly in a wait - and - see state. Although the atmosphere of downstream bargain - hunting has improved marginally, and some battery factories have production - increasing plans, overall demand has not shown a significant explosive growth and is still in a slow recovery stage [4]. - In terms of inventory, foreign lead inventories have decreased, domestic inventories have increased, and the number of warehouse receipts has decreased, with overall inventory remaining unchanged. Currently, demand has not effectively driven inventory reduction, but it is expected to gradually strengthen, supporting lead prices. Overall, the supply of Shanghai lead is expected to decrease, demand will gradually increase, and considering the market's expectation of a Fed rate cut, it is recommended to go long on lead prices at low levels [4]. - The main contract 2510 of Shanghai lead is expected to rise in a volatile manner, with a volatility range of 16,700 - 17,200 and a stop - loss range of 16,500 - 17,300. Attention should be paid to the operation rhythm and risk control [4]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Week - to - Week Summary - **Market Review**: This week, Shanghai lead futures showed a volatile trend. The main contract 2509 of Shanghai lead futures was active, rising 0.36%. Overall, Shanghai lead prices mainly increased slightly due to decreasing supply and stable demand [4]. - **Market Outlook**: Supply is expected to be tight, with shrinking lead ore production and unstable raw material supply for smelters. The operating rate of primary lead is relatively strong, but production may fluctuate. The supply of secondary lead has significant regional differences and high uncertainty. Demand is in a slow recovery stage, with stable demand for automobile starting batteries and expected growth in the "Golden September and Silver October" season. Inventory has not been effectively reduced by demand but is expected to improve. It is recommended to go long on lead prices at low levels [4]. - **Operation Suggestion**: The main contract 2510 of Shanghai lead is expected to rise in a volatile manner, with a volatility range of 16,700 - 17,200 and a stop - loss range of 16,500 - 17,300. Attention should be paid to the operation rhythm and risk control [4]. 3.2 Futures and Spot Market - **Price Trends**: Domestic futures prices of Shanghai lead increased slightly compared to last week, foreign futures prices remained flat, and the price ratio decreased. As of August 28, 2025, the futures closing price (electronic trading) of LME 3 - month lead was $1938 per ton, the futures closing price of the active lead contract was 16,890 yuan per ton, and the Shanghai - London ratio of lead was 8.72 [6][10]. - **Basis and Premiums**: Domestic futures basis weakened, and foreign premiums weakened. As of August 28, 2025, the Chinese futures basis was - 140 yuan per ton, and the LME lead premium (0 - 3) was - $41.45 per ton [12][14]. - **Inventory and Warehouse Receipts**: Foreign lead inventories decreased, domestic inventories increased, and the number of warehouse receipts decreased, with overall inventory remaining unchanged. As of August 28, 2025, the total lead inventory was 6.52 tons, an increase of 0.2 tons; the total LME lead inventory was 262,500 tons, a decrease of 10,550 tons; and the number of Shanghai lead warehouse receipts was 58,151 tons, a decrease of 1,271 tons [29][33]. 3.3 Industry Chain - **Supply - Side - Primary Lead**: The operating rate and production of primary lead enterprises increased, and a subsequent decline is expected. As of August 21, 2025, the average operating rate of primary lead in major production areas was 77.66%, an increase of 4.41% from last week; the weekly production of primary lead was 37,500 tons, an increase of 2,200 tons from last week [18][20]. - **Supply - Side - Secondary Lead**: The capacity utilization rate and production of secondary lead enterprises decreased. It is currently in the off - season, with few waste battery scrapings, and it is difficult for capacity to recover significantly. A recovery is expected next week. As of August 21, 2025, the domestic production of secondary lead in major production areas was 21,300 tons, a decrease of 200 tons from the previous week; the average capacity utilization rate of secondary lead was 47.42%, a decrease of 0.81% from the previous week [24][27]. - **Supply - Side - Secondary Lead Enterprises Quantity**: As of July 31, 2025, the total number of secondary lead production enterprises was 68, remaining unchanged [35][37]. - **Supply - Side - Lead Trade**: In July 2025, refined lead exports decreased significantly, while imports increased significantly. There was an arbitrage opportunity due to higher overseas lead ingot prices and low domestic processing fees. Refined lead exports were 1,795 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 43.62% and a year - on - year increase of 408.31%. Refined lead imports were 3,417 tons. The total lead ingot imports were 13,450 tons, a month - on - month increase of 6,940 tons or 106.70%, and a year - on - year decrease of 9,730 tons or 41.98% [39][41]. - **Demand - Side - Processing Fees**: The domestic lead concentrate processing fee remained unchanged, while the imported ore processing fee decreased, with little impact on domestic production. As of August 28, 2025, the average national lead concentrate processing price was 540 yuan per ton, and the average monthly value of the imported lead concentrate (Pb60) processing fee TC was - $70 per thousand tons [43][45]. - **Demand - Side - Automobile Sales**: Automobile production and sales growth rates decreased, affecting lead demand. In July 2025, automobile sales were 2.593 million, a month - on - month decrease of 10.7% and a year - on - year increase of 14.7%. From January to July, cumulative automobile sales reached 18.269 million, a year - on - year increase of 12% [47][49]. - **Demand - Side - Battery Prices**: Battery prices remained flat, while the price of lead - antimony alloy (for batteries, containing 2 - 4% antimony) increased. As of August 28, 2025, the average price of waste lead 48V/20AH batteries in Zhejiang was 394 yuan per set, and the price of lead - antimony alloy (for batteries, containing 2 - 4% antimony) in Shanghai was 19,870 yuan per ton [51][52].

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided Group 2: Core Viewpoints of the Report - The freight rates are still suppressed by the fundamentals in the short term. With the demand not significantly improved, over - capacity remains a huge pressure on the supply side in the future, limiting the recovery space of shipping prosperity. The freight and industry profitability are expected to be under pressure, and the traditional peak season this year may show the characteristic of "not prosperous in the peak season", with freight rates expected to fluctuate weakly [6][7][41] Group 3: Summary by Directory 1. Market Review - This week, most of the futures prices of the Container Shipping Index (European Line) declined. The main contract EC2510 closed down 4.76%, and the far - month contracts fell between 4% and 7%. The latest SCFIS European Line settlement freight rate index was 2180.17, down 55.31 points from last week, a month - on - month decrease of 2.5%. The current SCFI European Line recorded 1668 last Friday, further dropping 152, with a weekly decline of 8.35%. The continuous decline of spot indicators drove down the futures prices. The trading volume and open interest of the EC2510 contract declined this week [6][10][14] 2. News Review and Analysis - The EU Commission proposed two legislative proposals to implement the EU - US joint statement on tariffs. The EU will cancel some tariffs on US industrial products, give preferential market access to some seafood and non - sensitive agricultural products, and extend the duty - free treatment for lobsters. The US will reduce the tariffs on EU automobiles and parts from 27.5% to 15% and implement zero or near - zero tariffs on some products from September 1st, which is bullish for the market [17] - US President Trump said that trade agreements with the EU, Japan, and South Korea were completed and that he would impose high tariffs on imported furniture, which is neutral to bearish [17] - New York Fed President Williams said it was appropriate to cut interest rates at the right time, which is bullish [17] - The Trump administration outlined a plan to impose 50% tariffs on Indian products, which is bearish [17] 3. Weekly Market Data - This week, the basis and spread of the Container Shipping Index (European Line) futures contracts converged. The export container freight rate index declined. The container shipping capacity decreased in the short term. The BDI and BPI rebounded due to geopolitical factors. The charter price of Panamax ships rebounded rapidly, and the spread between the offshore and on - shore RMB against the US dollar fluctuated mainly [24][26][30] 4. Market Outlook and Strategy - This week, the futures prices of the Container Shipping Index (European Line) mostly declined. The continuous decline of spot indicators drove down the futures prices. The "price war" made the fundamentals under continuous pressure. The US employment data was far below expectations, and the interest - rate cut expectation soared. The internal demand in the eurozone was weak. Overall, freight rates are expected to fluctuate weakly. It is necessary to continuously monitor factors such as the actual follow - up increase of the shipping companies' opening prices in December, the frequency of Houthi attacks, and trade war - related information [40][41]

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints of the Report - This week, industrial silicon prices dropped by 4.06%, and polysilicon prices fell by 0.22%. Industrial silicon futures showed a unilateral downward trend, while polysilicon futures remained in high - level consolidation. [4] - For industrial silicon, supply is expected to increase, especially in Southwest China during the flood season. The overall demand from its three major downstream industries remains flat, and the industry inventory is still high. It is expected to maintain a volatile downward trend next week. [4] - For polysilicon, supply is increasing, while demand is weakening. The market is in a situation of strong supply and weak demand, and the price is expected to continue to adjust and show a volatile trend. [4] - Operation suggestions: The main contract of industrial silicon should be traded in the range of 8000 - 9000, with a stop - loss range of 7500 - 9500. The main contract of polysilicon should be short - term volatile, with a trading range of 46000 - 53000 and a stop - loss range of 44000 - 55000. [4] Summary according to the Directory 1. Weekly Key Points Summary - **Market Review**: Industrial silicon futures declined unilaterally, and polysilicon futures were in high - level consolidation. [4] - **Market Outlook**: - **Industrial Silicon**: Supply will increase, especially in Southwest China. The demand from downstream industries remains flat, and the inventory is high, so it will be in a volatile downward trend. [4] - **Polysilicon**: Supply is rising, demand is falling, and the price will continue to adjust and show a volatile trend. [4] - **Operation Suggestions**: Provide trading ranges and stop - loss ranges for both industrial silicon and polysilicon main contracts. [4] 2. Spot and Futures Market - **Price Changes**: Both industrial silicon and polysilicon futures prices declined this week. Industrial silicon spot prices decreased, and the basis decreased. Polysilicon spot and futures prices were flat, and the basis strengthened. [5][10][14] - **Industrial Silicon Production**: As of August 28, 2025, the national industrial silicon output was about 83,100 tons, and the capacity utilization rate was 57.31%. [19] 3. Industry Situation - **Cost and Price**: The raw material cost of industrial silicon decreased, and the electricity price remained stable during the flood season, so the overall cost remained low. [21] - **Warehouse Receipts**: As of August 28, 2025, the number of industrial silicon warehouse receipts was 50,656 lots, a decrease of 510 lots from the previous week. [28] - **Downstream Industry of Industrial Silicon**: - **Organic Silicon**: The output and operating rate decreased this week. Due to cost reduction and profit recovery, the output is expected to be stable, and the demand for industrial silicon will remain unchanged. [30][37] - **Aluminum Alloy**: The spot price increased, and the inventory continued to rise. The demand for industrial silicon is expected to be negative. [43] - **Polysilicon**: The demand for industrial silicon is expected to increase slightly due to the increase in silicon wafer prices. [50] - **Polysilicon Industry**: - **Cost and Profit**: The cost decreased, the profit increased, and the output increased. The industry is gradually improving. [57] - **Downstream Demand**: The silicon wafer price increased, and the battery cell price remained flat. The demand for polysilicon is expected to increase slightly. [50]

Report Summary 1. Investment Rating - No investment rating information is provided in the report. 2. Core View - The report suggests a bearish approach for egg investment. Currently, the egg market is facing abundant supply due to high egg - laying hen inventory, new - laid eggs from previously replenished hens, and continuous cold - storage egg outflows. At the same time, terminal demand is weak, the high - temperature weather makes the market cautious, and breeding enterprises are more willing to sell at low prices to reduce inventory. The industrial capacity reduction is slow, which may continue to restrict egg prices during the school - opening and Mid - Autumn Festival stocking seasons. The futures price generally maintains a weak trend under the pressure of weak spot prices and high production capacity [6][7]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Week - on - Week Key Points Summary - **Strategy Recommendation**: Adopt a bearish approach [6]. - **Market Review**: This week, the egg price continued to decline. The closing price of the 2510 contract was 2939 yuan per 500 kilograms, a decrease of 96 yuan per 500 kilograms compared to the previous week [7]. - **Market Outlook**: High egg - laying hen inventory, new - laid eggs from previously replenished hens, and cold - storage egg outflows lead to sufficient supply. Weak terminal demand, high - temperature caution, and low - price sales by breeding enterprises result in lower - than - expected spot prices and continuous losses for the breeding side. Slow industrial capacity reduction may restrict egg prices during peak seasons. The futures price remains weak [7]. 3.2 Futures and Spot Market - **Futures Price and Top 20 Positions**: The egg futures 10 - contract continued to decline, with a position of 493,762 lots, an increase of 59,481 lots from the previous week. The net position of the top 20 was - 42,469, with little change in net short positions [13]. - **Futures Warehouse Receipts**: As of Friday, the registered egg warehouse receipts were 0 [17]. - **Spot Price and Basis**: The egg spot price was 3116 yuan per 500 kilograms, an increase of 59 yuan per 500 kilograms from the previous week. The basis between the active 10 - contract futures price and the spot average price was 177 yuan per ton [23]. - **Futures Inter - month Spread**: The 10 - 1 spread of eggs was - 383 yuan per 500 kilograms, at a relatively low level in the same period [27]. - **Related Spot Prices**: As of August 28, 2025, the average wholesale price of pork was 19.94 yuan per kilogram, and the average wholesale price of 28 key - monitored vegetables was 4.94 yuan per kilogram [33]. 3.3 Industry Chain - **Supply - Side Indicators**: As of July 31, 2025, the national laying - hen inventory index was 113.18, a month - on - month increase of 1.13%. The national new - chick index was 78.4, a month - on - month increase of 3.06% [39]. - **Laying - Hen Culling Indicators**: As of July 31, 2025, the national laying - hen culling index was 99.2, a month - on - month decrease of 4.70%. The national culling age was 512 days [44]. - **Feed Raw Material Prices**: As of August 29, 2025, the average spot price of corn was 2364.71 yuan per ton [48]. - **Feed Prices and Breeding Profits**: As of August 22, 2025, the egg - laying hen breeding profit was - 0.15 yuan per hen, and the average price of egg - laying hen compound feed was 2.76 yuan per kilogram [54]. - **Egg - Laying Hen Chick and Culled - Hen Prices**: As of August 22, 2025, the average price of egg - laying hen chicks in the main production areas was 3.2 yuan per chick, and the average price of culled hens was 10.1 yuan per kilogram [60]. - **Egg Monthly Exports**: In May 2025, China's egg export volume was 12,711.37 tons, a year - on - year increase of 7.87% and a month - on - month decrease of 81.14 tons [64]. 3.4 Representative Enterprises - **Xiaoming Co., Ltd.**: The report shows the company's price - to - earnings ratio changes, but no specific analysis is provided [66].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content 2. Core Views of the Report - The price of rebar futures fluctuated weakly due to the interweaving of multiple and short - term factors. The RB2601 contract may consolidate in the range of 3100 - 3220 yuan/ton, and attention should be paid to the operation rhythm and risk control [2][7] - Although the steel market is currently relatively weak, as construction steel enters the peak season, downstream may have restocking demand, and it is recommended to buy slightly out - of - the - money call options [56] 3. Summary According to the Directory 3.1 Week - to - Week Summary - **Market Review**: As of August 29, the price of the rebar main contract was 3160 yuan/ton (- 35 yuan/ton), and the spot price of Hangzhou Zhongtian rebar was 3300 yuan/ton (- 20 yuan/ton). Rebar production increased from a decline, with a weekly output of 220.56 million tons (+ 5.91 million tons, + 58.34 million tons year - on - year). Apparent demand continued to rise, with a current period demand of 204.21 million tons (+ 9.41 million tons, - 14.04 million tons year - on - year). Factory inventories decreased while social inventories continued to increase, with a total rebar inventory of 623.39 million tons (+ 16.35 million tons, + 27.6 million tons year - on - year). The steel mill profitability rate was 63.64%, a decrease of 1.30 percentage points from last week and an increase of 59.74 percentage points from last year [5] - **Market Outlook**: Overseas, the market's expectation of a September interest rate cut by the Fed was strengthened. Domestically, policies to expand service consumption will be introduced, and multiple banks have cut RMB deposit rates. In terms of supply and demand, rebar weekly production increased, the capacity utilization rate was 48.35%, and the EAF steel operating rate decreased again; end - users purchased on demand, and inventories increased for five consecutive weeks. In terms of cost, iron ore was firm, coal and coke fluctuated weakly. Technically, the RB2601 contract was under pressure below multiple moving averages [7] 3.2 Futures and Spot Market - **Futures Price**: This week, the RB2601 contract fluctuated weakly. The RB2510 contract was stronger than the RB2601 contract, and the spread on the 29th was - 70 yuan/ton, a week - on - week increase of 6 yuan/ton [13] - **Warehouse Receipts and Positions**: On August 29, the Shanghai Futures Exchange's rebar warehouse receipts were 199,497 tons, a week - on - week increase of 40,864 tons. The net short position of the top 20 in the rebar futures contract was 184,391 lots, an increase of 80,192 lots from the previous week [19] - **Spot Price and Basis**: On August 29, the spot price of Hangzhou's third - grade rebar was 3300 yuan/ton, a week - on - week decrease of 20 yuan/ton; the national average price was 3333 yuan/ton, a week - on - week decrease of 6 yuan/ton. The basis strengthened, with a basis of 140 yuan/ton on the 29th, a week - on - week increase of 15 yuan/ton [25] 3.3 Upstream Market - **Raw Material Prices**: On August 29, the price of 61% Australian Macfayden powder ore at Qingdao Port was 828 yuan/dry ton, a week - on - week increase of 9 yuan/dry ton. The spot price of first - grade metallurgical coke at Tianjin Port was 1670 yuan/ton, a week - on - week increase of 0 yuan/ton [29] - **Port Conditions**: The arrival volume at 47 ports decreased, and port inventories decreased. The total inventory of imported iron ore at 47 ports was 143.8802 million tons, a week - on - week decrease of 561,800 tons [33] - **Coking Plant Conditions**: The capacity utilization rate of coking plants decreased, and coke inventories increased. The capacity utilization rate of 230 independent coking enterprises was 72.70%, a decrease of 1.47%; daily coke output was 512,800 tons, a decrease of 10,300 tons; coke inventories were 398,100 tons, an increase of 34,000 tons [37] 3.4 Industry Conditions - **Supply Side**: In July, the national crude steel output was 79.66 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of 4.0%. On August 29, the blast furnace operating rate of 247 steel mills was 83.2%, a week - on - week decrease of 0.16 percentage points. The weekly output of rebar was 220.56 million tons, an increase of 5.91 million tons from last week. The EAF steel operating rate decreased [41][44][47] - **Inventory**: On August 28, the in - factory inventory of rebar was 169.62 million tons, a decrease of 4.91 million tons from last week. The social inventory of 35 major cities was 453.77 million tons, an increase of 21.26 million tons from last week. The total rebar inventory was 623.39 million tons, a week - on - week increase of 16.35 million tons [50] - **Demand Side**: From January to July 2025, the new housing start - up area decreased by 19.4% year - on - year, and infrastructure investment increased by 3.2% year - on - year [53] 3.5 Option Market - It is recommended to buy slightly out - of - the - money call options as construction steel enters the peak season and downstream may have restocking demand [56]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - A - share major indices rose collectively this week, with the ChiNext Index and the STAR 50 Index showing strong performance, rising over 7%. The four stock - index futures also rose collectively. Market trading activity continued to increase compared to last week, with the average daily trading volume of the Shanghai and Shenzhen stock markets approaching 3 trillion yuan, and the trading amount of north - bound funds exceeding 1 trillion yuan for six consecutive weeks. In the short term, the market may experience shock consolidation after a continuous sharp rise. In the current low - interest - rate environment, the movement of residents' deposits will inject liquidity into the market, and the previous policies for the entry of medium - and long - term funds will help optimize the A - share investment structure. A - shares with reasonable valuations will continue to attract foreign capital inflows. The market still has expectations for policy intensification. It is recommended to buy on dips with a light position [7][96]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Market Review - Futures: IF2509 rose 2.55% this week, IH2509 rose 1.29%, IC2509 rose 2.74%, and IM2509 rose 0.24%. - Spot: The Shanghai and Shenzhen 300 Index rose 2.71%, the Shanghai Stock Exchange 50 Index rose 1.63%, the China Securities 500 Index rose 3.24%, and the China Securities 1000 Index rose 1.03% [10]. 3.2 News Overview - From January to July, the total profit of industrial enterprises above the designated size was 4.02035 trillion yuan, a year - on - year decrease of 1.7%. The operating income was 78.07 trillion yuan, a year - on - year increase of 2.3%, and the operating cost was 66.80 trillion yuan, an increase of 2.5%. The operating income profit margin was 5.15%, a year - on - year decrease of 0.21 percentage points. In July, the profit of industrial enterprises above the designated size decreased by 1.5% year - on - year. - The scale of domestic ETFs reached 5.07 trillion yuan, and it only took 4 months to cross from 4 trillion to 5 trillion. The current number of ETF funds is 1,271. There are 101 ETFs with a scale of over 10 billion, and 6 with a scale of over 100 billion. - As of the end of July 2025, the total scale of China's public funds was 35.08 trillion yuan, reaching a record high for the tenth time since the beginning of 2024. In July, the scale of money market funds increased by over 38 billion yuan, that of stock funds increased by over 19 billion yuan, that of hybrid funds increased by over 13 billion yuan, and that of bond funds decreased by over 4.6 billion yuan [13]. 3.3 Weekly Market Data - **Domestic Main Indices**: The Shanghai Composite Index rose 0.84%, the Shenzhen Component Index rose 4.36%, the STAR 50 Index rose 7.49%, the SME 100 Index rose 4.47%, and the ChiNext Index rose 7.74% [16]. - **External Main Indices (as of Thursday)**: The S&P 500 rose 0.54%, the UK FTSE 100 fell 1.12%, the Hang Seng Index fell 1.03%, and the Nikkei 225 rose 0.20% [17]. - **Industry Sector Performance**: Industry sectors showed mixed performance, with the communication, non - ferrous metals, and electronics sectors rising significantly. All industry sectors had net outflows of main funds, with significant net outflows in the computer and electronics sectors [21][25]. - **Other Data**: This week, major shareholders had a net reduction of 7.913 billion yuan in the secondary market, the market value of restricted shares lifted was 72.07 billion yuan, and the total trading amount of north - bound funds was 1.560645 trillion yuan. The basis of the main contracts of IF, IH, IC, and IM weakened [32][40][43][47][52]. 3.4 Market Outlook and Strategy - After continuous sharp rises, the market may experience shock consolidation in the short term. As the semi - annual reports of A - share listed companies are about to be fully disclosed, the market will enter a performance and policy vacuum period. In the current low - interest - rate environment, the movement of residents' deposits will inject liquidity into the market, and previous policies will help optimize the A - share investment structure. A - shares will continue to attract foreign capital inflows. The market still has expectations for policy intensification. It is recommended to buy on dips with a light position [96].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the document 2. Core View of the Report - The precious metals market continued its strong rebound this week due to dovish stances from Fed officials, stable rate - cut expectations, and increased market risk - aversion. Despite economic data showing resilience, the dollar was not supported, and the "asymmetry" in economic indicators affected the long - end yield of US Treasuries, boosting the monetary attribute of gold. The market is awaiting the July core PCE data and the next non - farm payroll report. If inflation continues to slow and employment data weakens, the expectation of Fed rate cuts will rise, potentially driving gold prices higher. The Russia - Ukraine cease - fire negotiation is a variable, but currently, the willingness of Russia to reach a cease - fire is low. It is recommended to make light - position layouts on dips [7]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Weekly Highlights Summary - **Market Review**: After the Jackson Hole meeting, Fed officials showed dovish stances, and Trump's actions increased risk - aversion. The US Q2 GDP growth rate was revised up to 3.3%, the labor market was resilient, and inflation data showed a slowdown. However, the dollar was not supported, and the precious metals market remained resilient [7]. - **Market Outlook**: The July core PCE data on Friday night will be a key guide. If it shows inflation slowdown, the expectation of Fed rate cuts may rise, and gold prices may break new highs. The non - farm payroll report next Friday is also crucial. A slowdown in employment data will boost rate - cut expectations. The Russia - Ukraine cease - fire negotiation may affect gold's safe - haven property, but its impact is currently limited [7]. - **Operation Suggestion**: It is recommended to make light - position layouts on dips. The expected price ranges for Shanghai gold 2510 contract are 750 - 800 yuan/gram, and for Shanghai silver 2510 contract are 9350 - 9450 yuan/kilogram. For London gold, it is 3350 - 3450 dollars/ounce, and for London silver, it is 38.5 - 39.5 dollars/ounce [7]. 3.2 Futures and Spot Markets - **Price Changes**: Gold and silver prices rose this week. As of August 29, 2025, COMEX silver was at 39.55 dollars/ounce, up 0.34% month - on - month; Shanghai silver 2510 contract was at 9386 yuan/kilogram, up 2.11% month - on - month. COMEX gold was at 3470 dollars/ounce, up 1.54% month - on - month; Shanghai gold 2510 contract was at 785.12 yuan/gram, up 1.52% month - on - month [9][11]. - **ETF Holdings**: The net holdings of gold and silver ETFs on the foreign market increased this week. As of August 28, 2025, the SLV silver ETF holdings were 15333 tons, up 0.40% month - on - month, and the SPDR gold ETF holdings were 967.94 tons, up 1.20% month - on - month [13][17]. - **Speculative Positions**: As of August 19, 2025, COMEX gold speculative net positions decreased, while silver speculative net positions increased. The total and net positions of COMEX gold decreased, while those of COMEX silver increased [19][23]. - **CFTC Positions**: As of August 19, 2025, CFTC gold long positions decreased week - on - week, and short positions increased [25][29]. - **Basis**: The basis of gold and silver in the Shanghai market weakened this week. As of August 28, 2025, the gold basis was - 3.22 yuan/gram, down 51.9% month - on - month, and the silver basis was - 28 yuan/kilogram, down 247.40% month - on - month [31][33]. - **Inventory**: The inventory of gold on the Shanghai Futures Exchange increased this week, while that of silver decreased, showing a differentiated trend from COMEX inventory. As of August 28, 2025, COMEX gold inventory was 38764636.49 ounces, up 0.49% month - on - month; Shanghai Futures Exchange gold inventory was 37455 kilograms, up 3.05% month - on - month. COMEX silver inventory was 508778300 ounces, up 0.10% month - on - month; Shanghai Futures Exchange silver inventory was 1109123 kilograms, down 2.80% month - on - month [35][39]. 3.3 Industry Supply and Demand Situation 3.3.1 Silver Industry - **Imports**: As of July 2025, China's silver imports decreased slightly, while silver ore imports rebounded significantly. The monthly value of silver imports was 252977.88 kilograms, down 7.46% month - on - month, and the monthly value of silver ore imports was 154158134.00 kilograms, up 22.32% month - on - month [41][45]. - **Downstream Demand**: As of July 2025, due to the growth of silver demand in semiconductors, the growth rate of integrated circuit production continued to rise. The monthly output of integrated circuits was 4690000.00 pieces, and the year - on - year growth rate was 15% [47][51]. - **Supply and Demand Balance**: The silver supply and demand were in a tight - balance pattern. As of the end of 2024, industrial demand was 680.5 million ounces, up 4% year - on - year; coin and net bar demand was 190.9 million ounces, down 22% year - on - year; silver ETF net investment demand was 61.6 million ounces, compared with - 37.6 million ounces in the previous year; total demand was 1164.1 million ounces, down 3% year - on - year. The supply - demand gap was narrowing year by year. As of the end of 2024, total supply was 1015.1 million ounces, up 2% year - on - year; total demand was 1164.1 million ounces, down 3% year - on - year; the supply - demand gap was - 148.9 million ounces, down 26% month - on - month [53][57][61]. 3.3.2 Gold Industry - **Prices**: This week, the gold recycling price and gold jewelry prices rose with the gold price. As of August 28, 2025, the Chinese gold recycling price was 776.40 yuan/gram, up 0.83% week - on - week. The prices of Laofengxiang, Chow Tai Fook, and Zhou Dafu gold also increased [63][65]. - **Supply and Demand**: According to the World Gold Council, in Q2 2025, the investment demand for gold ETFs declined slightly. The pace of central bank gold purchases slowed, and the high gold price led to a marginal decline in gold jewelry manufacturing demand [67]. 3.4 Macro and Options - **Macro Data**: Recently, the expectation of rate cuts has risen significantly, and the dollar has continued to weaken. The 10Y - 2Y US Treasury yield spread widened, the CBOE gold volatility increased, and the SP500/COMEX gold price ratio decreased. The 10 - year breakeven inflation rate in the US increased slightly this week. In August 2025, the People's Bank of China increased its gold reserves by about 2.18 tons [73][78][83][88].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - This week, the domestic urea market fluctuated at a low level. The mainstream ex - factory price of small and medium - sized granules in Shandong dropped to 1,660 - 1,680 yuan/ton, with the average price down 80 yuan/ton week - on - week. The short - term price of the UR2601 contract is expected to fluctuate between 1,710 - 1,780 yuan [6]. - Recently, some newly added units have been under maintenance, leading to a slight decrease in the daily output of domestic urea. Next week, it is expected that 2 enterprises will plan to stop production and 3 stopped enterprises will resume production. Considering short - term enterprise failures, the probability of output reduction is high [6]. - Domestic agricultural demand is in a seasonal off - season, with a slight increasing trend in fertilizer preparation in Jiangsu and Anhui. Industrial compound fertilizers are mainly for phased replenishment, and the enterprise operating rate has decreased. Affected by policies, the adjustment of the enterprise operating rate is limited, but some are expected to increase starting from the 4th [6]. - Domestic demand is advancing slowly, and the inventory of some enterprises has increased slightly. Although some enterprises have export orders next week, due to environmental protection restrictions on shipping, the enterprise inventory is still expected to increase [6]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Weekly Highlights Summary - **Market Review**: This week, the domestic urea market fluctuated at a low level. The mainstream ex - factory price of small and medium - sized granules in Shandong dropped to 1,660 - 1,680 yuan/ton, with the average price down 80 yuan/ton week - on - week [6]. - **Market Outlook**: Output may decrease; agricultural demand is in an off - season with a slight increase in some areas; industrial demand is mainly for phased replenishment; inventory is expected to increase [6]. - **Strategy Suggestion**: The UR2601 contract is expected to fluctuate between 1,710 - 1,780 yuan in the short term [6]. 3.2 Futures Market Situation - **Price Trend**: This week, the price of the main contract of Zhengzhou urea fluctuated and closed up, with a weekly increase of 0.04% [9]. - **Inter - delivery Spread**: As of August 29, the UR 1 - 5 spread was - 45 [13]. - **Position Analysis**: Not detailed in the provided content. - **Warehouse Receipt Trend**: As of August 29, there were 6,473 warehouse receipts of Zhengzhou urea, an increase of 2,400 compared with last week [20]. 3.3 Spot Market Situation - **Domestic Spot Price**: As of August 28, the mainstream price in Shandong was 1,710 yuan/ton, down 50 yuan; the mainstream price in Jiangsu was 1,720 yuan/ton, down 40 yuan [26]. - **Foreign Spot Price**: As of August 28, the FOB price of urea in China was 447.5 US dollars/ton, down 2.5 US dollars/ton compared with last week [29]. - **Basis Trend**: As of August 28, the urea basis was - 43 yuan/ton, down 39 yuan/ton compared with last week [34]. 3.4 Upstream Situation - As of August 27, the market price of Qinhuangdao thermal coal with 5,500 kcal was 670 yuan/ton, unchanged from last week. As of August 28, the closing price of NYMEX natural gas was 299 US dollars/million British thermal units, up 0.18 US dollars/million British thermal units compared with last week [37]. 3.5 Industry Situation - **Capacity Utilization and Output**: As of August 28, the output of Chinese urea production enterprises was 134.92 tons, down 1.19 tons from the previous period, a week - on - week decrease of 0.87%; the capacity utilization rate was 82.39%, down 1.60% from the previous period, and the trend changed from rising to falling [40]. - **Inventory**: As of August 28, the sample inventory of Chinese urea ports was 60 tons, a week - on - week increase of 9.9 tons, a week - on - week increase of 19.76%. As of August 27, the total inventory of Chinese urea enterprises was 108.58 tons, an increase of 6.19 tons from last week, a week - on - week increase of 6.05% [43]. - **Export**: In July 2025, China's urea export volume was 56.72 tons, a month - on - month increase of 756.80% and a year - on - year increase of 614.36% [46]. 3.6 Downstream Situation - As of August 28, the capacity utilization rate of compound fertilizers was 39.22%, a week - on - week decrease of 1.62 percentage points. It is expected that the adjustment of the enterprise operating rate will be limited in the next period, but some are expected to increase starting from the 4th. The weekly average capacity utilization rate of Chinese melamine was 58.50%, an increase of 11.90 percentage points compared with last week [49].

Report Title - Iron Ore Market Weekly Report: High Pig Iron Production, Iron Ore Futures Prices Fluctuating Strongly [2] Core Viewpoints - Macroeconomically, overseas Fed's expected interest - rate cuts and domestic policies to expand service consumption and bank deposit - rate cuts provide a favorable environment. In terms of supply and demand, Australian and Brazilian iron ore shipments and arrivals decline, and domestic port inventories turn from increasing to decreasing. With the support on the demand side, the I2601 contract may fluctuate upwards. It is recommended to buy out - of - the - money call options [8][56] Summaries by Directory 1. Weekly Highlights 1.1 Price - As of August 29, the closing price of the iron ore main contract was 787.5 (+17.5) yuan/ton, and the price of Macarthur fines at Qingdao Port was 828 (+8) yuan/dry ton [6] 1.2 Shipment - From August 18 - 24, 2025, the global iron ore shipment volume was 3315.8 million tons, a week - on - week decrease of 90.8 million tons. The shipment volume from Australia and Brazil was 2760.4 million tons, a week - on - week increase of 4.4 million tons [6] 1.3 Arrival - From August 18 - 24, 2025, the arrival volume at 47 Chinese ports was 2462.3 million tons, a week - on - week decrease of 240.8 million tons; at 45 ports, it was 2393.3 million tons, a decrease of 83.3 million tons; at six northern ports, it was 1153.0 million tons, a decrease of 99.5 million tons [6] 1.4 Demand - The average daily pig iron production was 240.13 million tons, a week - on - week decrease of 0.62 million tons, and a year - on - year increase of 19.24 million tons [6] 1.5 Inventory - As of August 29, 2025, the imported iron ore inventory at 47 ports was 14388.02 million tons, a week - on - week decrease of 56.18 million tons and a year - on - year decrease of 1644.36 million tons. The imported ore inventory of 247 steel mills was 9007.19 million tons, a week - on - week decrease of 58.28 million tons [6] 1.6 Profitability - The profitability rate of steel mills was 63.64%, a week - on - week decrease of 1.30 percentage points and a year - on - year increase of 59.74 percentage points [6] 2. Futures and Spot Market 2.1 Futures Price - This week, the I2601 contract fluctuated strongly. It was stronger than the I2605 contract, and the spread on the 29th was 24 yuan/ton, a week - on - week increase of 1.5 yuan/ton [14] 2.2 Warehouse Receipts and Net Positions - On August 29, the number of Dalian Commodity Exchange iron ore warehouse receipts was 1900, a week - on - week decrease of 100. The net short position of the top 20 in the ore futures contract was 21871, an increase of 25563 from the previous week [20] 2.3 Spot Price - On August 29, the price of 61% Australian Macarthur fines at Qingdao Port was 828 yuan/dry ton, a week - on - week increase of 9 yuan/dry ton. This week, the spot price was weaker than the futures price, and the basis on the 29th was 41 yuan/ton, a week - on - week decrease of 9 yuan/ton [26] 3. Industry Situation 3.1 Shipment and Arrival - From August 18 - 24, 2025, the global iron ore shipment volume decreased by 90.8 million tons week - on - week, and the arrival volume at 47 Chinese ports decreased by 240.8 million tons week - on - week [31] 3.2 Port Inventory - This week, the total imported iron ore inventory at 47 ports was 14388.02 million tons, a week - on - week decrease of 56.18 million tons. The total imported iron ore inventory of steel mills was 9007.19 million tons, a week - on - week decrease of 58.28 million tons [35] 3.3 Inventory Availability - As of August 28, the average inventory availability days of imported iron ore for large and medium - sized domestic steel mills was 20 days, a week - on - week increase of 0 days. On the 28th, the BDI was 2017, a week - on - week increase of 73 [40] 3.4 Import and Mine Capacity Utilization - In July 2025, China's iron ore imports decreased by 1.3% month - on - month. As of August 22, the capacity utilization rate of 266 mines decreased by 1.72% [43] 3.5 Iron Ore Production - In July 2025, China's iron ore concentrate production decreased by 0.8% month - on - month [47] 4. Downstream Situation 4.1 Crude Steel Production - In July 2025, China's crude steel production was 7966 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of 4.0% [50] 4.2 Steel Mill Operating Rate and Pig Iron Production - On August 29, the blast furnace operating rate of 247 steel mills was 83.2%, a week - on - week decrease of 0.16 percentage points. The daily average pig iron production was 240.13 million tons, a week - on - week decrease of 0.62 million tons [53] 5. Options Market - It is recommended to buy out - of - the - money call options due to high pig iron production, the change of port inventory from increasing to decreasing, and the expected increase in steel production after September 3 [56]