1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The current late - Fuji apple inventory is at a relatively low level in recent years, and price fluctuations have intensified on the futures market. It is recommended to buy long positions on dips in the short term and pay attention to risk control [2] 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Futures Market - The closing price of the apple futures main contract is 9229 yuan/ton, and the main contract position is 139,277 lots, a decrease of 2,878 lots compared to the previous period. The net long position of the top 20 futures holders is 7,393 lots [2] Spot Market - The spot price of apples in Gansu Jingning (paper - bag 75 and above) is 5 yuan/jin, unchanged from the previous period; in Shandong Yiyuan (paper - bag 75 and above) it is 2.3 yuan/jin, unchanged; in Shaanxi Luochuan (paper - bag 70 and above half - commodity) it is 4.2 yuan/jin, with a change of 0.1 yuan/jin; in Shandong Yantai Qixia (paper - bag 80 and above first - grade second - class fruit farmer's goods) it is 3.5 yuan/jin, a decrease of 0.1 yuan/jin [2] Upstream Situation - The annual national apple output is 5,128.51 million tons. The weekly apple fruit wholesale price is 9.46 yuan/kg, a decrease of 0.07 yuan/kg; the average wholesale price of Fuji apples is 9.04 yuan/kg, a decrease of 0.11 yuan/kg. The total national apple cold - storage inventory is 698.42 million tons, the Shandong apple storage capacity ratio is 0.41, unchanged; the Shaanxi apple storage capacity ratio is 0, and the monthly apple export volume is 70,000 tons, unchanged [2] Industry Situation - The monthly apple export amount year - on - year is - 8.5%. The monthly import amount of fresh, dried fruits and nuts is 1,837,980 million US dollars, an increase of 248,684.5 million US dollars. The weekly profit of first - and second - grade paper - bag apple 80 storage merchants is 0 yuan/jin [2] Downstream Situation - The weekly fruit wholesale price of pears is 6.67 yuan/kg, with a change of 0.02 yuan/kg; for bananas it is 5.18 yuan/kg, with a change of 0.1 yuan/kg; for watermelons it is 5.48 yuan/kg, with a change of - 0.02 yuan/kg. The weekly average number of early - morning arrival vehicles at the Guangdong Jiangmen wholesale market is 12.2, a decrease of 4; at the Guangdong Xiaqiao wholesale market it is 17, a decrease of 3.6; at the Guangdong Chalong wholesale market it is 24, a decrease of 3.6 [2] Option Market - The implied volatility of at - the - money call options for apples is 23.36%, a decrease of 0.67%; the implied volatility of at - the - money put options for apples is 23.36%, a decrease of 0.67% [2] Industry News - Cold - storage trading in the western apple - producing areas has gradually started, with Shandong merchants actively purchasing goods, and the price of stored Fuji apples in Gansu is stable and firm. In the Shandong producing area, the mainstream price of surface supplies has declined due to quality issues, and the local inventory has continued to increase. The ground trading of new - season late - Fuji apples is gradually ending, mainly concentrated in Shandong and Shanxi. As of November 5, 2025, the national apple cold - storage inventory is 698.42 million tons, lower than the same period last year. The storage capacity ratio in Shandong is 41.03%, a year - on - year decrease of 13.42%; in Shaanxi it is 56.81%, a year - on - year decrease of 10.77%. The new - season late - maturing Fuji apples in Shandong have smaller fruit sizes and poorer fruit surface quality, showing a trend of reduced production and quality [2]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The precious metals market continues to run strongly. The end of the US government shutdown is expected to provide a liquidity buffer for the market, and the slowdown of US economic data boosts the expectation of interest rate cuts, which enhances the monetary attribute of precious metals. However, the optimistic expectation of the government shutdown may weaken market risk - aversion demand and form resistance to the upward movement of gold prices. The weakening trend of the US dollar is expected to boost the precious metals trend in stages. Technically, the upward momentum of gold prices is increasing, with clear resistance and support levels [2]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Futures Market - **Prices**: The closing price of the Shanghai gold main contract is 948.88 yuan/gram, up 12.9 yuan; the closing price of the Shanghai silver main contract is 11,880 yuan/kilogram, up 161 yuan [2]. - **Positions**: The main - contract positions of Shanghai gold are 130,346 hands, down 6,311 hands; those of Shanghai silver are 233,585 hands, down 9,632 hands. The net positions of the top 20 in the Shanghai gold main contract are 110,361 hands, down 161 hands; those of Shanghai silver are 119,859 hands, up 17,973 hands [2]. - **Warehouse Receipts**: The warehouse receipt quantity of gold is 89,616 kilograms, unchanged; that of silver is 591,884 kilograms, down 18,094 kilograms [2]. 3.2 Spot Market - **Prices**: The spot price of gold on the Shanghai Non - ferrous Metals Network is 950.3 yuan/gram, up 22.2 yuan; the spot price of silver is 11,903 yuan/kilogram, up 296 yuan [2]. - **Basis**: The basis of the Shanghai gold main contract is 1.42 yuan/gram, up 9.3 yuan; the basis of the Shanghai silver main contract is 23 yuan/kilogram, up 135 yuan [2]. 3.3 Supply and Demand Situation - **ETF Holdings**: The gold ETF holdings are 1,042.06 tons, unchanged; the silver ETF holdings are 15,088.63 tons, unchanged [2]. - **CFTC Non - commercial Net Positions**: The gold CFTC non - commercial net positions are 266,749 contracts, up 339 contracts; the silver CTFC non - commercial net positions are 52,276 contracts, up 738 contracts [2]. - **Supply and Demand Quantities**: The total quarterly supply and demand of gold are both 1,313.01 tons, with an increase of 54.84 tons in supply and 54.83 tons in demand. The total annual supply of silver is 987.8 million troy ounces, down 21.4 million troy ounces; the total annual global demand for silver is 1,195 million ounces, down 47.4 million ounces [2]. 3.4 Option Market - **Historical Volatility**: The 20 - day historical volatility of gold is 30.84%, down 1.14%; the 40 - day historical volatility of gold is 26.95%, up 0.19% [2]. - **Implied Volatility**: The implied volatility of at - the - money call options for gold is 21.98%, up 1.52%; the implied volatility of at - the - money put options for gold is 21.96%, up 1.49% [2]. 3.5 Industry News - China's gold consumption in the first three quarters of this year was 682.73 tons, a year - on - year decrease of 7.95%. The increase in domestic gold ETF positions was 79.015 tons, a year - on - year increase of 164.03%, and the position at the end of September was 193.749 tons [2]. - Fed Governor Milan supports further interest rate cuts to prevent the weakening of the US economy in the future and advocates a faster pace than the traditional 25 - basis - point cut. San Francisco Fed President Daly said the US economy may be experiencing a decline in demand, but tariff - related inflation is currently under control, and the Fed should discuss whether to continue to cut interest rates on the basis of the 50 - basis - point cut this year with an "open mind" [2]. - According to CME's "FedWatch", the probability of the Fed cutting interest rates by 25 basis points in December is 64.1%, and the probability of keeping interest rates unchanged is 35.9%. By January next year, the probability of a cumulative 25 - basis - point cut is 54.1%, the probability of keeping interest rates unchanged is 23.2%, and the probability of a cumulative 50 - basis - point cut is 22.7% [2]. 3.6 Technical Analysis - The daily RSI shows that the upward momentum of gold prices is increasing. The key resistance level for the London gold price is between 4,130 - 4,160 US dollars, and the strong support level is at 4,000 US dollars. The Shanghai gold 2512 contract is concerned about the range of 900 - 960 yuan/gram; the Shanghai silver 2512 contract is concerned about the range of 11,000 - 12,000 yuan/kilogram [2]

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Core View of the Report - The tin market shows a situation of weak supply and demand, and the tin price is expected to remain strong at a high level in the short term. It is recommended to wait and see or hold a small - long position, and pay attention to the 29 resistance level [3] Summary by Relevant Catalogs Futures Market - The closing price of the main futures contract of Shanghai Tin is 288,180 yuan/ton, with a month - on - month increase of 1,620 yuan/ton; the closing price of the December - January contract of Shanghai Tin is - 190 yuan/ton, with a month - on - month increase of 70 yuan/ton. The LME 3 - month tin price is 36,180 US dollars/ton, with a month - on - month increase of 360 US dollars/ton. The main contract position of Shanghai Tin is 36,392 lots, with a month - on - month increase of 2,135 lots. The net position of the top 20 futures of Shanghai Tin is - 93 lots, with a month - on - month increase of 578 lots. The total LME tin inventory is 3,035 tons, with no change; the LME tin cancelled warrants are 140 tons, with no change. The Shanghai Futures Exchange tin inventory is 5,992 tons, with a month - on - month increase of 73 tons [3] 现货市场 - The Shanghai Futures Exchange tin warehouse receipt is 5,582 tons, with a month - on - month decrease of 112 tons. The SMM 1 tin spot price is 287,700 yuan/ton, with a month - on - month increase of 1,900 yuan/ton; the Yangtze River Non - ferrous Market 1 tin spot price is 288,330 yuan/ton, with a month - on - month increase of 1,960 yuan/ton. The basis of the Shanghai Tin main contract is - 760 yuan/ton, with a month - on - month decrease of 950 yuan/ton. The LME tin premium (0 - 3) is 33.33 US dollars/ton, with a month - on - month increase of 3.33 US dollars/ton [3] Upstream Situation - The import volume of tin ore and concentrates is 0.87 million tons, with a month - on - month decrease of 0.16 million tons. The average price of 40% tin concentrates is 271,700 yuan/ton, with a month - on - month increase of 900 yuan/ton; the processing fee of 40% tin concentrates is 10,500 yuan/ton, with no change. The average price of 60% tin concentrates is 275,700 yuan/ton, with a month - on - month increase of 900 yuan/ton; the processing fee of 60% tin concentrates is 6,500 yuan/ton, with no change [3] Industry Situation - The monthly output of refined tin is 1.4 million tons, with a month - on - month decrease of 0.16 million tons. The monthly import volume of refined tin is 1,501.64 tons, with a month - on - month increase of 63.06 tons [3] 下游情况 - The price of 60A solder bars in Gejiu is 186,290 yuan/ton, with a month - on - month increase of 1,440 yuan/ton. The cumulative output of tin - plated sheets (strips) is 110.93 million tons, with a month - on - month increase of 14.48 million tons. The monthly export volume of tin - plated sheets is 19.76 million tons, with a month - on - month increase of 3.1 million tons [3] Industry News - The State Council General Office issued 13 measures to further promote private investment; the US government shutdown may end before this weekend; the price increase of US consumer goods in October slowed down for the first time in three months; Trump - appointed Fed governor Milan believes that the government shutdown will not affect his view of the US economy and that a 50 - basis - point interest rate cut should be made in December [3] 观点总结 - The first batch of restarted mines in Myanmar's Wa State are in the production - climbing period, and the import volume of tin ore from Myanmar in the fourth quarter is expected to increase steadily but the increment is limited. The tin ore imports from Africa and Australia have declined unexpectedly, and Africa will enter the rainy season soon. The tin ore imports decreased month - on - month in September. Indonesia plans to accelerate the release of refined tin exports in the fourth quarter. In the smelting sector, the shortage of raw materials in Yunnan is still severe, and the tin ore processing fee remains low; the waste recycling system in Jiangxi is under pressure, the operating rate is at a low level, and the output of refined tin is still restricted. On the demand side, the tin price has been fluctuating recently. Downstream buyers in the spot market mainly purchase at low prices, mostly for small - scale replenishment and rigid - demand purchases. The domestic inventory reduction is better than expected, and the LME inventory has increased slightly [3]

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content 2. Core View of the Report - The new cotton listing pressure is increasing, but the lower - than - expected yield per unit of Xinjiang cotton supports the cotton market. The downstream demand is weak, but the tariff reduction is beneficial for cotton textile exports, also providing some support. With the current situation of long - short factors intertwined, it is advisable to wait and see in the short term [2] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Futures Market - Zhengzhou cotton main contract closing price is 13,560 yuan/ton, down 20 yuan; cotton yarn main contract closing price is 19,855 yuan/ton, down 10 yuan [2] - Cotton futures top 20 net positions are - 116,286 lots, down 1,085 lots; cotton yarn futures top 20 net positions are - 17 lots, up 3 lots [2] - Cotton main contract open interest is 573,905 lots, up 3,733 lots; cotton yarn main contract open interest is 24,626 lots, down 341 lots [2] - Cotton warehouse receipt quantity is 3,619 pieces, up 325 pieces; cotton yarn warehouse receipt quantity is 19 pieces, unchanged [2] Spot Market - China Cotton Price Index (CCIndex:3128B) is 14,842 yuan/ton, down 2 yuan; China Yarn Price Index for pure cotton carded yarn 32s is 20,520 yuan/ton, unchanged [2] - China Imported Cotton Price Index (FCIndexM:1% tariff) is 12,972 yuan/ton, down 115 yuan; the arrival price of imported cotton yarn price index for pure cotton carded yarn 32s is 21,210 yuan/ton, up 8 yuan [2] - China Imported Cotton Price Index (FCIndexM: sliding duty) is 13,958 yuan/ton; the arrival price of imported cotton yarn price index for pure cotton combed yarn 32s is 22,644 yuan/ton, up 9 yuan [2] Upstream Situation - The national cotton sowing area is 2,838.3 thousand hectares, up 48.3 thousand hectares; the national cotton output is 616 tons, up 54 tons [2] Industry Situation - The cotton - yarn price difference is 5,678 yuan/ton, up 2 yuan; the national industrial inventory of cotton is 86.1 tons, down 0.9 tons [2] - The monthly import volume of cotton is 10 tons, up 3 tons; the monthly import volume of cotton yarn is 130,000 tons, unchanged [2] - The daily profit of imported cotton is 886 yuan/ton, up 58 yuan; the national commercial inventory of cotton is 102.17 tons, down 46 tons [2] Downstream Situation - The inventory days of yarn are 24.85 days, down 1.73 days; the inventory days of grey cloth are 31.12 days, down 2.75 days [2] - The monthly output of cloth is 2.8 billion meters, up 0.1 billion meters; the monthly output of yarn is 207.4 tons, up 4.6 tons [2] - The monthly export value of clothing and clothing accessories is 12,453,247 million US dollars, down 1,692,656.63 million US dollars; the monthly export value of textile yarns, fabrics and products is 11,966,516 million US dollars, down 426,685.77 million US dollars [2] Option Market - The implied volatility of cotton at - the - money call options is 6.8%, down 5.43%; the implied volatility of cotton at - the - money put options is 6.8%, down 5.43% [2] - The 20 - day historical volatility of cotton is 5.46%, down 0.09%; the 60 - day historical volatility of cotton is 7.85%, down 0.01% [2] Industry News - According to Mysteel research, the national commercial inventory of cotton has increased significantly with the concentrated listing of new cotton. As of November 7, 2025, the total commercial inventory of cotton is 2.8478 million tons, a week - on - week increase of 0.5217 million tons (a 22.43% increase). Among them, the commercial cotton in Xinjiang is 2.3115 million tons, a week - on - week increase of 0.4725 million tons (a 25.69% increase), and the commercial cotton in the inland area is 0.01883 million tons, a week - on - week increase of 0.00231 million tons (a 13.98% increase) [2] - ICE cotton futures rose on Monday. The sign of the end of the US government shutdown boosted the market sentiment. The December ICE cotton futures contract closed up 0.69 cents, or 1.08%, at 64.31 cents per pound [2] Supply - demand Analysis - Supply side: As of November 3, 2025, the cotton picking progress in Xinjiang is about 96.1%, 2.1 percentage points faster than the same period last year. The picking and purchasing progress of Xinjiang cotton has accelerated, and the purchasing price has slightly decreased. The current commercial inventory is gradually recovering, and the inventory of imported cotton has increased significantly, reaching a new high in 3.5 months. Due to less outbound of imported cotton, the market trading volume is limited, and the arrival volume is stable [2] - Demand side: The spinning processing profit has slightly improved, and enterprises' confidence in future demand shows signs of improvement, but the increase in new orders is still limited. Attention should be paid to the export situation [2]

Report Summary 1. Investment Rating No investment rating for the industry is provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints - The alumina market may face slightly reduced supply and a steady increase in demand. It is recommended to conduct light - position short - term long trades at low prices, while controlling the rhythm and trading risks [2]. - The electrolytic aluminum market may have stable supply and slightly reduced demand, with a small accumulation of industrial inventory. It is suggested to conduct light - position oscillating trades and control trading risks [2]. - The casting aluminum alloy market may experience a slowdown in the growth rate of supply and demand, with an accumulation of industrial inventory. Light - position oscillating trades are recommended, along with risk control [2]. 3. Summary by Directory a. Futures Market - **Price Movements**: The closing prices of the main contracts of Shanghai aluminum, alumina, and casting aluminum alloy decreased, while the LME electrolytic aluminum three - month quotation increased. The spot prices of Shanghai - colored A00 aluminum and Yangtze River - colored AOO aluminum increased, and the alumina spot price also rose [2]. - **Inventory Changes**: The LME aluminum inventory decreased, while the inventory of alumina increased. The Shanghai aluminum inventory and the inventory of casting aluminum alloy showed different changes, with some increasing and some decreasing [2]. - **Position Changes**: The net position of the top 20 in Shanghai aluminum increased, and the position of the main contract of casting aluminum alloy also increased, while the position of the main contract of alumina decreased [2]. b. Upstream Situation - **Production and Demand**: The alumina production increased, but the demand decreased. The import of aluminum scrap decreased, while the export increased. The export of alumina increased, and the import decreased [2]. - **Supply - Demand Balance**: The supply - demand balance of alumina improved, and the WBMS aluminum supply - demand balance also showed an improvement trend [2]. c. Industry Situation - **Production and Capacity**: The production of primary aluminum, aluminum products, and some aluminum - related products changed. The total capacity of electrolytic aluminum remained stable, and the production capacity of recycled aluminum alloy ingots also remained unchanged [2]. - **Inventory and Export**: The social inventory of electrolytic aluminum increased, and the export of some aluminum products decreased [2]. d. Downstream and Application - **Production and Index**: The production of automobiles increased, while the national real - estate prosperity index decreased. The production of some aluminum - related products in the downstream also changed [2]. e. Option Situation - **Volatility and Ratio**: The historical volatility of Shanghai aluminum increased, the implied volatility of the main at - the - money option of Shanghai aluminum decreased slightly, and the option purchase - put ratio increased slightly [2]. f. Industry News - **Fed's Stance**: Fed Governor Milan supports further interest rate cuts, and San Francisco Fed President Daly suggests discussing further rate cuts [2]. - **Automobile Industry**: In October, the production and retail of passenger cars and new - energy vehicles showed different growth trends. From January to October, there were also significant growth rates in the production and retail of these vehicles [2]. - **Policy**: The National Development and Reform Commission and the National Energy Administration jointly issued a document on new - energy development and utilization [2].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - There is no information provided regarding the industry investment rating in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints - ICE raw sugar futures rose on Monday as hopes that the US government shutdown might end soon boosted the commodity market. The most actively traded March raw sugar futures on ICE closed up 0.1 cent, or 0.70%, at 14.20 cents per pound [2]. - Brazil exported 420.5 million tons of sugar in October, a 13% year - on - year increase. However, from the start of the 2025/26 crushing season (April - March) to October 2025, Brazil's cumulative sugar exports were 2195.68 million tons, a 5.27% year - on - year decrease. The supply pressure remains significant, but as the current crushing season nears its end, exports are expected to enter a seasonal decline [2]. - In the domestic market, due to import quotas and policy issues, the price decline is not obvious. Guangxi sugar mills are mainly focused on inventory reduction. The new crushing season in most areas starts in mid - to late November, with an expected delay, which provides some sales opportunities for old sugar. The overall market lacks significant driving factors, and prices are expected to remain low in the short term. Attention should be paid to the October import data [2]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Futures Market - The closing price of the main futures contract for sugar was 5480 yuan/ton, with a daily increase of 5 yuan/ton. The main contract's open interest was 376,327 lots, an increase of 3084 lots [2]. - The number of sugar warehouse receipts was 7721, an increase of 58. The net long position of the top 20 futures holders was - 52,072 lots, an increase of 4379 lots [2]. - The total of valid warehouse receipt forecasts for sugar was 1183, a decrease of 122 [2]. 3.2现货市场 - The estimated import processing price of Brazilian sugar within the quota was 3947 yuan/ton, a decrease of 20 yuan/ton; that of Thai sugar was 4002 yuan/ton, a decrease of 21 yuan/ton [2]. - The estimated import price of Brazilian sugar outside the quota (50% tariff) was 4996 yuan/ton, a decrease of 26 yuan/ton; that of Thai sugar was 5068 yuan/ton, a decrease of 27 yuan/ton [2]. - The spot price of sugar in Kunming, Yunnan was 5650 yuan/ton, unchanged; in Nanning, Guangxi was 5760 yuan/ton, an increase of 10 yuan/ton; and in Liuzhou, Guangxi was 5730 yuan/ton, unchanged [2]. 3.3 Upstream Situation - The national sugar - crop planting area was 1480 thousand hectares, an increase of 60 thousand hectares. The planting area of sugarcane in Guangxi was 835.09 thousand hectares, a decrease of 12.86 thousand hectares [2]. - The cumulative national sugar production was 1116.21 million tons, an increase of 5.49 million tons. The cumulative national sugar sales volume was 811.38 million tons, an increase of 86.92 million tons [2]. - The monthly sugar import volume was 55 million tons, a decrease of 28 million tons. Brazil's total sugar exports were 420.5 million tons, an increase of 95.92 million tons [2]. 3.4 Industry Situation - The price difference between imported Brazilian sugar and the current price of Liuzhou sugar within the quota was 1588 yuan/ton, an increase of 28 yuan/ton; the price difference for Thai sugar was 1533 yuan/ton, an increase of 29 yuan/ton [2]. - The price difference between imported Brazilian sugar and the current price of Liuzhou sugar outside the quota (50% tariff) was 539 yuan/ton, an increase of 34 yuan/ton; the price difference for Thai sugar was 467 yuan/ton, an increase of 35 yuan/ton [2]. 3.5 Downstream Situation - The monthly output of refined sugar was 53.91 million tons, an increase of 8.5 million tons. The monthly output of soft drinks was 1591.7 million tons, a decrease of 184.1 million tons [2]. 3.6 Option Market - The implied volatility of at - the - money call options for sugar was 6.79%, a decrease of 0.71 percentage points; that of at - the - money put options was 6.79%, a decrease of 0.72 percentage points [2]. - The 20 - day historical volatility of sugar was 7.26%, a decrease of 0.08 percentage points; the 60 - day historical volatility was 6.85%, an increase of 0.03 percentage points [2]. 3.7 Industry News - Brazil exported 68.57 million tons of sugar in the first week of November, with an average daily export volume of 13.71 million tons, a 23% decrease compared to the average daily export volume of 17.84 million tons in November of the previous year. The total export volume in November of the previous year was 339.02 million tons [2].

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No investment rating is provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints - The PNBP policy in Indonesia restricts the supply of nickel resources, increasing the cost of nickel supply. The production of nickel - iron in Indonesia remains high, and the amount flowing back to China is expected to increase. Recently, the price of nickel - iron has dropped significantly, leading to a decrease in raw material costs [2]. - Steel mills' production profits have been restored. With the end of the traditional consumption peak season and the expected demand from infrastructure and real estate, stainless - steel mills are expected to increase production, resulting in increased supply pressure [2]. - Downstream demand shows a weak peak - season characteristic. The market's purchasing willingness is low, and the overall inquiry and transaction performance is average. As a result, the national stainless - steel social inventory shows a narrow increase [2]. - Technically, the position increases while the price drops, with a strong short - selling atmosphere and a downward - channel trend. It is recommended to wait and see or adopt a short - selling strategy near the MA30 resistance level, and pay attention to the support at 12,400 [2]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Futures Market - The closing price of the stainless - steel futures main contract is 12,465 yuan/ton, a decrease of 140 yuan; the 12 - 01 contract spread is - 55 yuan/ton, a decrease of 50 - 8008 yuan; the net long position of the top 20 futures holders is - 9,426 lots, a decrease of 305 lots; the main - contract position is 38,421 lots; the warehouse receipt quantity is 71,735 tons, a decrease of 296 tons [2]. 现货市场 - The price of 304/2B rolled stainless - steel in Wuxi is 13,350 yuan/ton, unchanged; the price of scrap stainless - steel 304 in Wuxi is 8,900 yuan/ton, unchanged; the SS main - contract basis is 415 yuan/ton, a decrease of 40 yuan [2]. Upstream Situation - The monthly production of electrolytic nickel is 29,430 tons, an increase of 1,120 tons; the total monthly production of nickel - iron is 21,700 metal tons, a decrease of 300 metal tons; the monthly import volume of refined nickel and alloys is 28,570.87 tons, an increase of 4,144.03 tons; the monthly import volume of nickel - iron is 1.0853 million tons, an increase of 211,200 tons; the SMM1 nickel spot price is 121,300 yuan/ton, an increase of 100 yuan; the average price of nickel - iron (7 - 10%) nationwide is 920 yuan/nickel point, unchanged; the monthly production of Chinese ferrochrome is 757,800 tons, a decrease of 26,900 tons [2]. Industry Situation - The monthly production of 300 - series stainless - steel is 1.7627 million tons, an increase of 24,800 tons; the weekly inventory of 300 - series stainless - steel is 570,800 tons, a decrease of 10,000 tons; the monthly export volume of stainless - steel is 458,500 tons, a decrease of 29,500 tons [2]. Downstream Situation - The cumulative monthly new - construction area of houses is 453.99 million square meters, an increase of 55.9799 million square meters; the monthly production of excavators is 31,600 units, an increase of 4,000 units; the monthly production of large and medium - sized tractors is 26,200 units, a decrease of 500 units; the monthly production of small tractors is 10,000 units, an increase of 1,000 units [2]. Industry News - The State Council's General Office issued 13 measures to further promote private investment. - The government shutdown is likely to end before this weekend. The Senate plans to resume deliberation at 11 am on Monday. Senate Republican leader Thune said that bipartisan cooperation is needed to speed up the process; otherwise, it may take most of this week to complete the legal procedures. - Private - sector data shows that the consumer - price increase in the US slowed for the first time in three months in October. - Trump - appointed Federal Reserve Governor Milan said that the government shutdown will not affect his view of the US economy, and the Fed should cut interest rates by 50 basis points in December [2].

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No industry investment rating is provided in the report. 2. Core View of the Report - Macroeconomic factors include the potential end of the US government shutdown by the weekend, 13 measures proposed by the State Council to boost private investment, and a slowdown in US consumer - price inflation in October. - On the supply side, zinc ore imports are rising due to long - term contract ores arriving at ports and refineries' raw material reserves for winter. However, domestic zinc ore processing fees are down, sulfuric acid prices are falling, squeezing smelter profits and limiting refined zinc output growth. Overseas zinc supply is tight, the SHFE - LME ratio has dropped significantly, and the export window has opened, with a shift towards net exports expected. - On the demand side, the traditional peak seasons of "Golden September and Silver October" were lackluster. The real - estate sector is a drag, while the automotive and home - appliance sectors show some policy - supported bright spots. Downstream demand recovery is weak, with spot premiums low and domestic inventories increasing. LME zinc de - stocking is slowing, and spot premiums are high. - Technically, positions are decreasing, prices are adjusting, and the bullish sentiment has weakened slightly. Attention should be paid to the MA10 support. It is recommended to wait and see for now [3]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Futures Market - The closing price of the SHFE zinc main contract is 22,675 yuan/ton, up 5 yuan; the spread between the 12 - 01 contracts of SHFE zinc is - 30 yuan/ton, up 10 yuan. - The LME three - month zinc quote is 3,085.5 dollars/ton, up 19 dollars. - The total SHFE zinc open interest is 226,896 lots, down 1,204 lots; the net position of the top 20 in SHFE zinc is 15,406 lots, down 421 lots. - SHFE zinc warehouse receipts are 70,518 tons, up 649 tons; SHFE inventory (weekly) is 100,208 tons, down 3,208 tons; LME inventory is 34,900 tons, unchanged [3]. 3.2现货市场 - The spot price of 0 zinc on the Shanghai Non - ferrous Metals Network is 22,660 yuan/ton, up 90 yuan; the spot price of 1 zinc in the Yangtze River Non - ferrous Metals Market is 22,660 yuan/ton, up 240 yuan. - The basis of the ZN main contract is - 15 yuan/ton, up 85 yuan; the LME zinc cash - 3 months spread is 176.55 dollars/ton, up 24.29 dollars. - The arrival price of 50% zinc concentrate in Kunming is 18,310 yuan/ton, down 20 yuan; the price of 85% - 86% crushed zinc in Shanghai is 16,050 yuan/ton, up 50 yuan [3]. 3.3 Upstream Situation - The WBMS zinc supply - demand balance is - 27,800 tons, down 5,700 tons; the ILZSG zinc supply - demand balance is 47,900 tons, up 17,700 tons. - The global zinc mine production by ILZSG is 1.0976 million tons, up 21,400 tons; domestic refined zinc production is 651,000 tons, up 34,000 tons. - Zinc ore imports are 505,400 tons, up 38,100 tons [3]. 3.4 Industry Situation - Refined zinc imports are 22,677.51 tons, down 2,979.32 tons; refined zinc exports are 2,477.83 tons, up 2,166.92 tons. - Zinc social inventory is 161,700 tons, down 100 tons [3]. 3.5 Downstream Situation - The production of galvanized sheets is 2.32 million tons, up 10,000 tons; the sales of galvanized sheets are 2.28 million tons, down 90,000 tons. - The new housing construction area is 453.99 million square meters, up 55.9799 million square meters; the housing completion area is 311.2888 million square meters, up 34.3534 million square meters. - Automobile production is 3.227 million vehicles, up 474,600 vehicles; air - conditioner production is 18.0948 million units, up 1.276 million units [3]. 3.6 Option Market - The implied volatility of at - the - money zinc call options is 12.23%, up 0.04%; the implied volatility of at - the - money zinc put options is 12.23%, up 0.03%. - The 20 - day historical volatility of at - the - money zinc options is 8.51%, down 0.86%; the 60 - day historical volatility of at - the - money zinc options is 8.98%, down 0.03% [3]. 3.7 Industry News - The State Council's General Office proposed 13 measures to further promote private investment. - The US government shutdown may end before this weekend. The Senate plans to resume deliberation on Monday morning, and bipartisan cooperation is needed to speed up the process. - US consumer - price inflation slowed for the first time in three months in October. - Trump - endorsed Fed nominee Milan believes the government shutdown won't affect his view of the US economy and that a 50 - basis - point rate cut is needed in December [3].

本报告中的信息均来源于公开可获得资料，瑞达期货股份有限公司力求准确可靠，但对这些信息的准确性及完整性不做任何保证，据此投资，责任自负。本报告不构成个人投资建 议，客户应考虑本报告中的任何意见或建议是否符合其特定状况。本报告版权仅为我公司所有，未经书面许可，任何机构和个人不得以任何形式翻版、复制和发布。如引用、刊发， 需注明出处为瑞 达研究瑞达期货股份有限公司研究院，且不得对本报告进行有悖原意的引用、删节和修改。 碳酸锂产业日报 2025/11/11 研究员: 陈思嘉 期货从业资格号F03118799 期货投资咨询从业证书号Z0022803 免责声明 | 项目类别 | 数据指标 | 最新 | 环比 数据指标 | 最新 | 环比 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | 主力合约收盘价（日，元/吨） | 86,540.00 | -700.00↓ 前20名净持仓（日，手） | -163,201.00 | -877.00↓ | | 期货市场 | 主力合约持仓量（日，手） | 526,493.00 | -7990.00↓ 近远月合约价差（日，元/吨） | -1,640.00 ...

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content Core Viewpoints - The rapeseed meal market is in a situation of weak supply and demand. Near - month imports of Canadian rapeseed and rapeseed meal are restricted, and oil mills have exhausted their rapeseed stocks with common shutdowns, resulting in less supply pressure. However, the demand for rapeseed meal is weakening due to the decline in aquaculture demand and the substitution of soybean meal [2]. - The rapeseed oil market will continue the de - stocking mode, which supports its price. But the supply of soybean oil is abundant and has a good substitution advantage, so the demand for rapeseed oil is mainly for essential needs. The rapeseed oil futures price has recovered from the low level recently, and short - term observation is recommended [3]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Futures Market - The latest price of rapeseed oil futures (active contract) is 9587 yuan/ton, up 54 yuan; the latest price of rapeseed meal futures (active contract) is 2527 yuan/ton, down 12 yuan. The 1 - 5 month spread of rapeseed oil is 413 yuan/ton, up 8 yuan; the 1 - 5 month spread of rapeseed meal is 99 yuan/ton, down 24 yuan [2]. - The positions of the main contracts of rapeseed oil and rapeseed meal decreased by 1514 hands and 12225 hands respectively. The net long positions of the top 20 futures holders of rapeseed oil decreased by 701 hands, while that of rapeseed meal increased by 4068 hands [2]. - The number of rapeseed oil warehouse receipts decreased by 926 to 4098, and the number of rapeseed meal warehouse receipts remained unchanged at 2745 [2]. - The closing price of ICE rapeseed futures (active) is 638.7 Canadian dollars/ton, up 4.6 Canadian dollars; the closing price of rapeseed futures (active contract) is 5120 yuan/ton, unchanged [2]. Spot Market - The spot price of rapeseed oil in Jiangsu is 9830 yuan/ton, up 30 yuan; the spot price of rapeseed meal in Nantong is 2530 yuan/ton, down 10 yuan. The average price of rapeseed oil is 9947.5 yuan/ton, up 30 yuan; the import cost of rapeseed is 7886.06 yuan/ton, up 108.76 yuan [2]. - The spot price of rapeseed in Yancheng, Jiangsu is 5700 yuan/ton, unchanged. The oil - meal ratio is 3.8, up 0.02 [2]. - The basis of the main rapeseed oil contract is 243 yuan/ton, down 24 yuan; the basis of the main rapeseed meal contract is 3 yuan/ton, up 2 yuan [2]. Substitute Spot Prices - The spot price of fourth - grade soybean oil in Nanjing is 8440 yuan/ton, up 60 yuan; the spot price difference between rapeseed oil and soybean oil is 1390 yuan/ton, down 30 yuan [2]. - The spot price of 24 - degree palm oil in Guangdong is 8560 yuan/ton, unchanged; the spot price difference between rapeseed oil and palm oil is 1270 yuan/ton, up 30 yuan [2]. - The spot price of soybean meal in Zhangjiagang is 3060 yuan/ton, unchanged; the spot price difference between soybean meal and rapeseed meal is 530 yuan/ton, up 10 yuan [2]. Upstream Situation - The global rapeseed production forecast for the year is 90.96 million tons, up 1.38 million tons; the annual forecast of rapeseed production is 13446 thousand tons, up 1068 thousand tons [2]. - The total rapeseed import volume in the current month is 11.53 million tons, down 13.13 million tons; the import rapeseed crushing profit is 716 yuan/ton, down 41 yuan [2]. - The total inventory of rapeseed in oil mills is 1 million tons, down 1 million tons; the weekly operating rate of imported rapeseed is 0%, down 1.6 percentage points [2]. Industry Situation - The import volume of rapeseed oil and mustard oil in the current month is 16 million tons, up 2 million tons; the import volume of rapeseed meal in the current month is 15.77 million tons, down 5.57 million tons [2]. - The rapeseed oil inventory in coastal areas is 3.8 million tons, down 0.4 million tons; the rapeseed meal inventory in coastal areas is 0.5 million tons, down 0.21 million tons [2]. - The rapeseed oil inventory in East China is 47.8 million tons, down 1.6 million tons; the rapeseed meal inventory in East China is 26.05 million tons, down 0.7 million tons [2]. - The rapeseed oil inventory in Guangxi is 2.4 million tons, down 0.3 million tons; the rapeseed meal inventory in South China is 20.7 million tons, down 0.6 million tons [2]. - The weekly提货量 of rapeseed oil is 1.84 million tons, up 1.49 million tons; the weekly提货量 of rapeseed meal is 0.39 million tons, up 0.17 million tons [2]. Downstream Situation - The monthly output of feed is 3128.7 million tons, up 201.5 million tons; the monthly retail sales of social consumer goods in the catering industry is 4508.6 billion yuan, up 12.9 billion yuan [2]. - The monthly output of edible vegetable oil is 495 million tons, up 44.4 million tons [2]. Option Market - The implied volatility of at - the - money call options for rapeseed meal is 21.41%, down 1.16 percentage points; the implied volatility of at - the - money put options for rapeseed meal is 21.42%, down 1.15 percentage points [2]. - The 20 - day historical volatility of rapeseed meal is 24.7%, down 1.03 percentage points; the 60 - day historical volatility of rapeseed meal is 26.88%, up 0.01 percentage points [2]. - The implied volatility of at - the - money call options for rapeseed oil is 12.2%, down 1.16 percentage points; the implied volatility of at - the - money put options for rapeseed oil is 12.24%, down 1.09 percentage points [2]. - The 20 - day historical volatility of rapeseed oil is 11.67%, down 1.27 percentage points; the 60 - day historical volatility of rapeseed oil is 15.4%, up 0.01 percentage points [2]. Industry News - On November 7 (Friday), ICE rapeseed futures closed higher, supported by speculative positions before the weekend. The January rapeseed futures contract rose 6.30 Canadian dollars to settle at 640 Canadian dollars per ton, up about 0.5% for the week [2]. - As of the week ending November 2, the export volume of Canadian rapeseed increased by 21.2% to 18.84 million tons compared with the previous week. From August 1 to November 2, 2025, the export volume of Canadian rapeseed was 142.33 million tons, a decrease of 54.1% compared with the same period of the previous year [2][3]. - China has agreed to purchase 12 million tons of US soybeans this season and at least 25 million tons per year in the next three years. The optimistic sentiment in the US soybean trade has boosted the US soybean futures price, which is beneficial to the domestic meal market. Recently, the rise of US soybean futures has slowed down [2]. Key Points of Attention - The rapeseed oil - meal inventory in each region and the rapeseed oil - meal operating rate released by Myagric on Monday, and the development of China - Canada trade relations [3]