塑料产业日报 2025-08-12 | 项目类别 | 数据指标 环比 数据指标 | 最新 | | 最新 | 环比 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 期货市场 | 期货主力合约收盘价:聚乙烯(日,元/吨) | 7329 | 15 期货收盘价(1月交割连续):线型低密度聚 | 7389 | 25 15 | | | 期货收盘价(5月交割连续):线型低密度聚 | | 乙烯(日,元/吨) 21 期货收盘价(9月交割连续):线型低密度聚 | | | | | | 7388 | | 7329 | | | | 乙烯(日,元/吨) 成交量(日,手) | 161499 | 乙烯(日,元/吨) -14151 持仓量(日,手) | 233122 | -19364 | | | 9-1价差 | -60 | -10 期货前20名持仓:买单量:聚乙烯(日,手) | 325765 | -3186 | | | 期货前20名持仓:卖单量:聚乙烯(日,手) | 341047 | -4808 期货前20名持仓:净买单量:聚乙烯(日,手) | -15282 | 1622 | | 现货市场 | LLDPE( ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The total inventory of spot goods at Qingdao Port continued to decline. Both bonded and general trade warehouses showed inventory reduction, with the general trade inventory reduction rate expanding month - on - month. The inflow of overseas goods to the port remained low, the overall inflow rate decreased month - on - month, while some tire companies continued to replenish goods slightly, and the previous orders were gradually picked up, leading to an increase in the overall outflow rate month - on - month [2]. - In terms of demand, the capacity utilization rate of domestic tire enterprises fluctuated slightly last week. Some semi - steel tire enterprises stopped or reduced production, dragging down the overall capacity utilization rate. Some all - steel tire enterprises resumed work and moderately increased production, but some enterprises still scheduled maintenance, restricting the increase in the overall capacity utilization rate. In the short term, the capacity utilization rate of domestic tire enterprises may be slightly adjusted, with limited overall fluctuation range [2]. - The ru2601 contract is expected to fluctuate in the range of 15,600 - 16,200 in the short term, and the nr2510 contract is expected to fluctuate in the range of 12,600 - 13,000 in the short term [2]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Futures Market - The closing price of the main Shanghai rubber contract was 15,860 yuan/ton, up 105 yuan; the closing price of the main 20 - numbered rubber contract was 12,665 yuan/ton, up 45 yuan [2]. - The 9 - 1 spread of Shanghai rubber was - 1,025 yuan/ton, down 40 yuan; the 9 - 10 spread of 20 - numbered rubber was - 60 yuan/ton, down 15 yuan [2]. - The spread between Shanghai rubber and 20 - numbered rubber was 3,195 yuan/ton, up 60 yuan. The position of the main Shanghai rubber contract was 125,703 lots, up 790 lots; the position of the main 20 - numbered rubber contract was 54,903 lots, down 855 lots [2]. - The net position of the top 20 in Shanghai rubber was - 36,925 lots, up 1,705 lots; the net position of the top 20 in 20 - numbered rubber was - 9,080 lots, up 439 lots [2]. - The warehouse receipts of Shanghai rubber in the exchange were 180,240 tons, up 4,800 tons; the warehouse receipts of 20 - numbered rubber in the exchange were 46,166 tons, up 3,326 tons [2]. 3.2 Spot Market - The price of state - owned whole latex in the Shanghai market was 14,750 yuan/ton, up 50 yuan; the price of Vietnamese 3L in the Shanghai market was 14,850 yuan/ton, unchanged [2]. - The price of Thai STR20 was 1,805 US dollars/ton, up 25 US dollars; the price of Malaysian SMR20 was 1,805 US dollars/ton, up 25 US dollars [2]. - The price of Thai RMB mixed rubber was 14,580 yuan/ton, up 200 yuan; the price of Malaysian RMB mixed rubber was 14,530 yuan/ton, up 200 yuan [2]. - The price of Qilu Petrochemical's styrene - butadiene 1502 was 11,900 yuan/ton, unchanged; the price of Qilu Petrochemical's butadiene BR9000 was 11,700 yuan/ton, up 200 yuan [2]. - The basis of Shanghai rubber was - 1,110 yuan/ton, down 55 yuan; the basis of non - standard products of the main Shanghai rubber contract was - 1,175 yuan/ton, down 5 yuan [2]. - The price of 20 - numbered rubber in the Qingdao market was 12,853 yuan/ton, up 183 yuan; the basis of the main 20 - numbered rubber contract was 188 yuan/ton, up 138 yuan [2]. - The market reference price of Thai raw rubber (smoked sheet) was 61.96 Thai baht/kg, up 0.76 Thai baht; the market reference price of Thai raw rubber (film) was 58.3 Thai baht/kg, down 0.35 Thai baht [2]. - The market reference price of Thai raw rubber (glue) was 54 Thai baht/kg, unchanged; the market reference price of Thai raw rubber (cup lump) was 48.65 Thai baht/kg, up 0.3 Thai baht [2]. 3.3 Upstream Situation - The theoretical production profit of RSS3 was 193 US dollars/ton, up 46 US dollars; the theoretical production profit of STR20 was 42 US dollars/ton, down 4.6 US dollars [2]. - The monthly import volume of technically specified natural rubber was 120,900 tons, down 27,300 tons; the monthly import volume of mixed rubber was 280,800 tons, up 58,500 tons [2]. 3.4 Downstream Situation - The weekly operating rate of all - steel tires was 61%, down 0.08 percentage points; the weekly operating rate of semi - steel tires was 74.35%, down 0.1 percentage points [2]. - The inventory days of all - steel tires in Shandong at the end of the week were 39.37 days, down 0.08 days; the inventory days of semi - steel tires in Shandong at the end of the week were 46.45 days, up 0.81 days [2]. - The monthly output of all - steel tires was 12.62 million pieces, up 800,000 pieces; the monthly output of semi - steel tires was 55.23 million pieces, up 1.08 million pieces [2]. 3.5 Option Market - The historical 20 - day volatility of the underlying was 20.58%, up 0.08 percentage points; the historical 40 - day volatility of the underlying was 17.47%, unchanged [2]. - The implied volatility of at - the - money call options was 21.79%, up 1.11 percentage points; the implied volatility of at - the - money put options was 21.79%, up 1.11 percentage points [2]. 3.6 Industry News - From August 10th to 16th, 2025, the rainfall in the main natural rubber producing areas in Southeast Asia increased compared with the previous period. In the northern part of the equator, the red areas were mainly concentrated in southern Myanmar and southern Cambodia, and the rainfall in most other areas was at a medium - low level, which increased the impact on tapping operations. In the southern part of the equator, the red areas were mainly distributed in eastern Malaysia and eastern Indonesia, and the rainfall in most other areas was at a medium level, which also increased the impact on tapping operations [2]. - As of August 10th, 2025, the total inventory of natural rubber in bonded and general trade in Qingdao was 619,900 tons, a decrease of 11,900 tons from the previous period, a decrease of 1.89%. The bonded area inventory was 75,300 tons, a decrease of 0.24%; the general trade inventory was 544,600 tons, a decrease of 2.11%. The inflow rate of the bonded warehouse decreased by 0.81 percentage points, and the outflow rate decreased by 0.93 percentage points; the inflow rate of the general trade warehouse decreased by 0.38 percentage points, and the outflow rate increased by 0.25 percentage points [2]. - As of August 7th, the capacity utilization rate of China's semi - steel tire sample enterprises was 69.71%, a decrease of 0.27 percentage points month - on - month and a decrease of 9.93 percentage points year - on - year. The capacity utilization rate of China's all - steel tire sample enterprises was 60.06%, an increase of 0.80 percentage points month - on - month and an increase of 0.73 percentage points year - on - year [2].

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No investment rating information is provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints - Fundamentally, zinc ore imports at home and abroad are increasing, zinc ore processing fees are rising, and the sulfuric acid price has increased significantly. This has further repaired smelters' profits, increasing their production enthusiasm. New production capacities are being released, and previously overhauled capacities are resuming production, leading to a faster increase in supply. Currently, import losses are expanding, and the inflow of imported zinc is decreasing. On the demand side, the downstream is in the off - season, and the operating rate of processing enterprises has decreased year - on - year. Recently, zinc prices have fallen, and downstream buyers are purchasing on - demand at low prices, but overall trading remains dull. Domestic social inventories continue to accumulate, and spot premiums are falling. Overseas, LME inventories have decreased significantly, and the strong LME zinc price has driven up domestic zinc prices. Technically, with increasing positions and rising prices, the bullish sentiment is strong. Attention should be paid to the resistance at the 23,000 mark. It is recommended to wait and see for now [3]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1. Futures Market - The closing price of the main Shanghai zinc futures contract is 22,630 yuan/ton, up 40 yuan; the 09 - 10 contract spread of Shanghai zinc is - 20 yuan/ton, unchanged. The LME three - month zinc quotation is 2,808 US dollars/ton, down 26 US dollars. The total position of Shanghai zinc is 211,490 lots, down 2,088 lots. The net position of the top 20 in Shanghai zinc is 9,902 lots, up 823 lots. Shanghai zinc warehouse receipts are 15,768 tons, up 274 tons. The SHFE inventory is 65,917 tons, up 4,193 tons; the LME inventory is 80,425 tons, down 1,075 tons [3]. 3.2. Spot Market - The spot price of 0 zinc on the Shanghai Non - ferrous Metals Network is 22,500 yuan/ton, down 30 yuan; the spot price of 1 zinc in the Yangtze River Non - ferrous Metals Market is 22,380 yuan/ton, down 180 yuan. The basis of the main ZN contract is - 130 yuan/ton, down 70 yuan. The LME zinc premium (0 - 3) is - 3.58 US dollars/ton, down 3.35 US dollars. The factory price of 50% zinc concentrate in Kunming is 17,190 yuan/ton, up 40 yuan; the price of 85% - 86% crushed zinc in Shanghai is 15,900 yuan/ton, unchanged [3]. 3.3. Upstream Situation - According to WBMS, the monthly zinc supply - demand balance is - 124,700 tons, down 104,100 tons; according to ILZSG, it is - 69,100 tons, up 10,400 tons. The global zinc ore production in the current month is 1.0075 million tons, down 4,300 tons. The domestic refined zinc production in the current month is 628,000 tons, up 45,000 tons. The zinc ore import volume is 455,900 tons, up 124,900 tons [3]. 3.4. Industry Situation - The monthly refined zinc import volume is 35,156.02 tons, down 22,615.39 tons; the monthly refined zinc export volume is 483.88 tons, up 266.83 tons. The weekly zinc social inventory is 91,200 tons, up 3,900 tons [3]. 3.5. Downstream Situation - The monthly output of galvanized sheets is 2.32 million tons, down 130,000 tons; the monthly sales volume is 2.34 million tons, down 120,000 tons. The monthly new housing construction area is 303.6432 million square meters, up 71.8071 million square meters; the monthly housing completion area is 225.6661 million square meters, up 41.8147 million square meters. The monthly automobile production is 2.8086 million vehicles, up 166,600 vehicles; the monthly air - conditioner production is 19.6788 million units, up 3.4764 million units [3]. 3.6. Option Market - The implied volatility of at - the - money call options for zinc is 14.3%, up 0.61%; the implied volatility of at - the - money put options for zinc is 14.3%, up 0.61%. The 20 - day historical volatility of at - the - money zinc options is 7.69%, up 0.01%; the 60 - day historical volatility is 13.21%, down 0.06% [3]. 3.7. Industry News - Trump's team is expanding the scope of candidates for the Fed Chair. The White House is expected to announce the candidate this fall. In July, China's automobile production and sales were 2.591 million and 2.593 million vehicles respectively, with year - on - year increases of 13.3% and 14.7%. Among them, new energy vehicle production and sales were 1.243 million and 1.262 million vehicles respectively, with year - on - year increases of 26.3% and 27.4%. New energy vehicle exports were 225,000 vehicles, a year - on - year increase of 1.2 times [3].

| | | 沪锡产业日报 2025-08-12 | 项目类别 | 数据指标 | 最新 | 环比 数据指标 | 最新 | 环比 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 期货市场 | 期货主力合约收盘价:沪锡(日,元/吨) | 270200 | 1820 9月-10月合约收盘价:沪锡(日,元/吨) | -200 | 30 | | | LME3个月锡(日,美元/吨) | 33715 | 110 主力合约持仓量:沪锡(日,手) | 26525 | 2247 | | | 期货前20名净持仓:沪锡(日,手) | -129 | -117 LME锡:总库存(日,吨) | 1750 | 40 | | | 上期所库存:锡(周,吨) | 7805 | 134 LME锡:注销仓单(日,吨) | 260 | -60 | | | 上期所仓单:锡(日,吨) | 7397 | 71 | | | | 现货市场 | SMM1#锡现货价格(日,元/吨) | 270600 | 2600 长江有色市场1#锡现货价(日,元/吨) | 270820 | 2960 | | | 沪锡主力合约基差(日,元/吨) | ...

免责声明 沪镍产业日报 2025-08-12 本报告中的信息均来源于公开可获得资料，瑞达期货股份有限公司力求准确可靠，但对这些信息的准确性及完整性不做任 何保证，据此投资，责任自负。本报告不构成个人投资建议，客户应考虑本报告中的任何意见或建议是否符合其特定状况。本 报告版权仅为我公司所有，未经书面许可，任何机构和个人不得以任何形式翻版、复制和发布。如引用、刊发，需注明出处为 瑞达期货股份有限公司研究院，且不得对本报告进行有悖原意的引用、删节和修改。 带动整体精炼镍产量小幅增加。需求端，不锈钢厂利润改善，钢厂进行提产；新能源汽车产销继续爬升， 数据来源第三方，观点仅供参考。市场有风险，投资需谨慎！ 但三元电池需求有限。近期镍价上涨采需减弱，现货升水持稳，国内库存上升；海外LME库存录得增长。 研究员: 王福辉 期货从业资格号F03123381 期货投资咨询从业证书号Z0019878 技术面，多空存在分歧，预计区间宽幅震荡。操作上，建议暂时观望，或区间操作，参考12.0-12.5。 | 项目类别 | 数据指标 | 最新 | 环比 数据指标 | 最新 | 环比 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided 2. Core View of the Report - On Tuesday, the I2601 contract continued to rise with increasing positions. The US July CPI data to be released at 20:30 on Tuesday was highly anticipated. In terms of supply and demand, the shipments and arrivals of iron ore from Australia and Brazil decreased this period, port inventories increased, and molten iron production continued to decline slightly. Overall, supply - side disturbances supported the rise of steel prices. Molten iron production remained above 2.4 million tons, and the January contract was at a discount to the spot, which supported the iron ore price. Technically, the 1 - hour MACD indicator of the I2601 contract showed that DIFF and DEA were rising, and the red bar was expanding. The operation strategy was to be bullish on the range, while paying attention to rhythm and risk control [2] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Futures Market - The closing price of the I main contract was 807.50 yuan/ton, up 11.00 yuan; the open interest of the I main contract was 230,026 lots, down 41,863 lots. The spread between the I 9 - 1 contracts was 6.5 yuan/ton, down 1.00 yuan; the net position of the top 20 in the I contract was 4,794 lots, up 457 lots. The warehouse receipts of the I DCE were 3,200.00 lots, down 200.00 lots. The quote of the Singapore iron ore main contract at 15:00 was 104.6 dollars/ton, up 1.10 dollars [2] 3.2 Spot Market - The price of 61.5% PB fines at Qingdao Port was 848 yuan/dry ton, up 1 yuan; the price of 60.8% Mac fines at Qingdao Port was 836 yuan/dry ton, up 1 yuan. The price of 56.5% Super Special fines at Jingtang Port was 720 yuan/dry ton, up 2 yuan. The basis of the I main contract (Mac fines dry ton - main contract) was 28 yuan, down 10 yuan. The 62% Platts iron ore index (previous day) was 102.90 dollars/ton, up 1.40 dollars. The ratio of Jiangsu scrap steel to 60.8% Mac fines at Qingdao Port was 3.30, down 0.01. The estimated import cost was 845 yuan/ton, up 11 yuan [2] 3.3 Industry Situation - The global iron ore shipments (weekly) were 3,046.70 million tons, down 15.10 million tons; the arrivals at 47 ports in China (weekly) were 2,571.60 million tons, down 50.80 million tons. The iron ore inventory at 47 ports (weekly) was 14,267.27 million tons, up 45.26 million tons; the iron ore inventory of sample steel mills (weekly) was 9,013.34 million tons, up 1.25 million tons. The iron ore imports (monthly) were 10,462.30 million tons, down 132.70 million tons; the available days of iron ore (weekly) were 18.00 days, down 6 days. The daily output of 266 mines (weekly) was 38.84 million tons, down 0.25 million tons; the operating rate of 266 mines (weekly) was 61.96%, down 0.36%. The iron concentrate inventory of 266 mines (weekly) was 36.60 million tons, down 1.40 million tons. The BDI index was 2,038.00, down 13.00. The freight rate of iron ore from Tubarao, Brazil to Qingdao was 24.95 dollars/ton, up 0.59 dollars; the freight rate of iron ore from Western Australia to Qingdao was 10.58 dollars/ton, up 0.21 dollars [2] 3.4 Downstream Situation - The blast furnace operating rate of 247 steel mills (weekly) was 83.77%, up 0.29%; the blast furnace capacity utilization rate of 247 steel mills (weekly) was 90.07%, down 0.15%. The domestic crude steel output (monthly) was 8,318 million tons, down 336 million tons [2] 3.5 Option Market - The 20 - day historical volatility of the underlying (daily) was 20.18%, up 0.52%; the 40 - day historical volatility of the underlying (daily) was 18.01%, up 0.02%. The implied volatility of at - the - money call options (daily) was 21.93%, up 0.31%; the implied volatility of at - the - money put options (daily) was 20.57%, down 0.13% [2] 3.6 Industry News - Brazil's shipments were 867.8 million tons, a week - on - week increase of 115.8 million tons. From August 4th to August 10th, 2025, Mysteel's global iron ore shipments were 3,046.7 million tons, a week - on - week decrease of 15.1 million tons. The total shipments of iron ore from Australia and Brazil were 2,530.3 million tons, a week - on - week decrease of 1.9 million tons. Australia's shipments were 1,662.5 million tons, a week - on - week decrease of 117.7 million tons, and the amount shipped from Australia to China was 1,447.8 million tons, a week - on - week decrease of 99.6 million tons. From August 4th to August 10th, 2025, the arrivals at 47 ports in China were 2,571.6 million tons, a week - on - week decrease of 50.8 million tons; the arrivals at 45 ports in China were 2,381.9 million tons, a week - on - week decrease of 125.9 million tons; the arrivals at the six northern ports were 1,203.0 million tons, a week - on - week decrease of 50.1 million tons [2]

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content 2. Core Viewpoints - The supply of domestic pure benzene is expected to increase month - on - month, as domestic hydrobenzene plants have the expectation of commissioning and restarting, though the commercial volume of petroleum benzene lacks an increase. The small number of imported cargo arrivals may partially offset the domestic increase. Next week, the consumption of pure benzene is expected to rise month - on - month as the overhaul devices of the five major downstream industries of pure benzene will restart intensively. In the long - term, the new installed capacity of the downstream of pure benzene in August is higher than that of pure benzene, which gives an improvement trend to the supply - demand of pure benzene, and the spot supply - demand gap may gradually shrink. The international oil price is expected to fluctuate, and industrial products rose mainly during the day driven by macro - benefits. Technically, attention should be paid to the support around 6100 and the pressure around 6350 for BZ2603 [2] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Futures Market - The closing price of the main pure benzene contract was 6250 yuan/ton, up 20 yuan; the settlement price was 6264 yuan/ton, up 33 yuan. The trading volume was 947 lots, and the open interest was 14400 lots, up 621 lots [2] Spot Market - In the domestic market, the mainstream prices of pure benzene in East China, South China, North China, and Northeast China were 6584 yuan/ton, 6115 yuan/ton, 6050 yuan/ton, and 6160 yuan/ton respectively. The prices of hydrobenzene in Jiangsu and Shanxi were 6250 yuan/ton and 6000 yuan/ton respectively. The offshore middle price of pure benzene in South Korea was 731 dollars/ton, down 2 dollars; the CFR middle price in China was 749.5 dollars/ton, up 3 dollars [2] Upstream Situation - The spot price of Brent DTD crude oil was 68.28 dollars/barrel, up 0.12 dollars; the CFR middle price of naphtha in Japan was 568 dollars/ton, down 2.5 dollars [2] Industry Situation - The capacity utilization rate of pure benzene was 78.14%, up 0.13 percentage points; the weekly output was 44.6 tons, up 1.03 tons. The port inventory of pure benzene was 16.3 tons, down 0.7 tons. The production cost was 5327.8 yuan/ton, down 118.2 yuan; the production profit was 737 yuan/ton, up 76 yuan [2] Downstream Situation - The开工率 of styrene was 77.73%, down 1.19 percentage points; the capacity utilization rates of caprolactam, phenol, aniline, and adipic acid were 95.72% (up 6.41 percentage points), 78.54% (down 0.46 percentage points), 69.24% (down 0.1 percentage points), and 64.3% (up 2 percentage points) respectively [2] Industry News - The Ministry of Finance, the Central Bank and other departments issued the Implementation Plan for the Loan Interest Subsidy Policy for Service Industry Business Entities to provide interest subsidies for eligible service industry business loans. China and the US agreed to suspend the implementation of a 24% tariff for 90 days starting from August 12, 2025. From August 1 to 7, the profit of petroleum benzene of CNPC was 576 yuan/ton, down 67 yuan/ton compared with the previous week. As of August 11, the commercial inventory of pure benzene in Jiangsu ports was 14.6 tons, down 10.43% [2]

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. 2. Core View of the Report - On Tuesday, the HC2510 contract continued to rise. Macroscopically, the joint statement of the China-US economic and trade talks in Stockholm announced the suspension of the 24% tariff for 90 days starting from August 12, 2025. On the supply side, the production restrictions in Tangshan affected market sentiment, and the sharp rise in furnace materials supported steel prices from the cost side. Technically, the 1-hour MACD indicator of the HC2510 contract showed that DIFF and DEA were rising upwards, and the red bars were expanding. Operationally, it is recommended to be bullish with oscillations, paying attention to rhythm and risk control [2]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs 3.1 Futures Market - HC main contract closing price: 3,484 yuan/ton, up 19 yuan [2]. - HC main contract open interest: 1,381,560 lots, up 6,551 lots [2]. - HC contract top 20 net positions: -48,510 lots, down 4,583 lots [2]. - HC10 - 1 contract spread: 6 yuan/ton, up 2 yuan [2]. - HC Shanghai Futures Exchange warehouse receipt: 79,286 tons, up 8,925 tons [2]. - HC2510 - RB2510 contract spread: 226 yuan/ton, up 11 yuan [2]. - Hangzhou 4.75 hot-rolled coil: 3,530 yuan/ton, up 20 yuan [2]. - Guangzhou 4.75 hot-rolled coil: 3,490 yuan/ton, up 10 yuan [2]. - Wuhan 4.75 hot-rolled coil: 3,500 yuan/ton, up 10 yuan [2]. - Tianjin 4.75 hot-rolled coil: 3,460 yuan/ton, up 20 yuan [2]. - HC main contract basis: 46 yuan/ton, up 1 yuan [2]. - Hangzhou hot-rolled coil - rebar spread: 110 yuan/ton, up 10 yuan [2]. 3.2 Upstream Situation - Qingdao Port 61.5% PB fine ore: 782 yuan/wet ton, up 6 yuan [2]. - Hebei quasi-primary metallurgical coke: 1,535 yuan/ton, unchanged [2]. - Tangshan 6 - 8mm scrap steel: 2,250 yuan/ton, unchanged [2]. - Hebei Q235 billet: 3,120 yuan/ton, up 20 yuan [2]. - 45 - port iron ore inventory: 137.1227 million tons, up 0.5437 million tons [2]. - Sample coking plant coke inventory: 443,600 tons, down 19,200 tons [2]. - Sample steel mill coke inventory: 6.193 million tons, down 74,800 tons [2]. - Hebei billet inventory: 1.1536 million tons, up 43,400 tons [2]. 3.3 Industry Situation - 247 steel mills' blast furnace operating rate: 83.77%, up 0.29 percentage points [2]. - 247 steel mills' blast furnace capacity utilization rate: 90.07%, down 0.15 percentage points [2]. - Sample steel mill hot-rolled coil output: 3.1489 million tons, down 79,000 tons [2]. - Sample steel mill hot-rolled coil capacity utilization rate: 80.44%, down 2.02 percentage points [2]. - Sample steel mill hot-rolled coil factory inventory: 778,800 tons, down 14,200 tons [2]. - 33 - city hot-rolled coil social inventory: 2.7875 million tons, up 101,000 tons [2]. - Domestic crude steel output: 83.18 million tons, down 3.36 million tons [2]. - Steel net export volume: 9.384 million tons, up 0.174 million tons [2]. 3.4 Downstream Situation - Automobile production: 2.591 million vehicles, down 203,100 vehicles [2]. - Automobile sales: 2.593 million vehicles, down 311,500 vehicles [2]. - Air conditioners: 28.3831 million units, down 1.0969 million units [2]. - Household refrigerators: 9.0474 million units, up 0.5374 million units [2]. - Household washing machines: 9.5079 million units, up 0.0959 million units [2]. 3.5 Industry News - Nine departments including the Ministry of Finance and the People's Bank of China issued the Implementation Plan for the Loan Interest Subsidy Policy for Service Industry Business Entities. Eligible loans can enjoy the interest subsidy policy, which is issued by the handling banks to business entities in 8 consumption - related service industries such as catering, accommodation, health, elderly care, childcare, housekeeping, cultural entertainment, tourism, and sports [2]. - The National Mine Safety Administration will hold a special press conference on the new version of the Coal Mine Safety Regulations at 10:00 am on August 13 to introduce the background, principles, significance, and main revised contents of the regulations and respond to media concerns [2].

Report Summary 1. Investment Rating - No investment rating is provided in the report. 2. Core View - The cost recently supports the offer price of butadiene rubber, but the supply will increase after the restart of maintenance devices. The negotiation focus of spot - end traders and downstream is divergent. The inventory of butadiene rubber sample enterprises increased slightly last week. Although some production devices were shut down for short - term maintenance, the price center of the spot end is low due to the downstream's wait - and - see sentiment and arbitrage resources. This week, with the co - existence of device maintenance and restart, the supply is expected to change little. Under the shipping pressure, the inventory of production enterprises is expected to decline slightly, while the inventory of trading enterprises is expected to increase. In terms of demand, the capacity utilization rate of domestic tire enterprises fluctuated slightly last week. The production capacity utilization rate of domestic tire enterprises may be slightly adjusted in the short term, with limited overall fluctuation space. The BR2509 contract is expected to fluctuate in the range of 11,680 - 12,200 [2]. 3. Summary by Directory Futures Market - The closing price of the main contract of synthetic rubber is 11,825 yuan/ton, with a week - on - week increase of 40 yuan/ton; the position of the main contract is 26,687, with a week - on - week decrease of 1,401. The 9 - 10 spread of synthetic rubber is 5 yuan/ton, with a week - on - week increase of 5 yuan/ton. The total warehouse receipt quantity of butadiene rubber is 2,490 tons, with no week - on - week change [2]. Spot Market - The mainstream price of butadiene rubber (BR9000, Qilu Petrochemical) in Shandong is 11,700 yuan/ton, with a week - on - week increase of 100 yuan/ton; the mainstream price of butadiene rubber (BR9000, Daqing Petrochemical) in Shandong is 11,700 yuan/ton, with a week - on - week increase of 150 yuan/ton; the mainstream price of butadiene rubber (BR9000, Daqing Petrochemical) in Shanghai is 11,750 yuan/ton, with a week - on - week increase of 150 yuan/ton; the mainstream price of butadiene rubber (BR9000, Maoming Petrochemical) in Guangdong is 11,750 yuan/ton, with a week - on - week increase of 200 yuan/ton. The basis of synthetic rubber is - 75 yuan/ton, with a week - on - week increase of 10 yuan/ton [2]. Upstream Situation - Brent crude oil is at $66.63 per barrel, with a week - on - week increase of $0.04; WTI crude oil is at $63.96 per barrel, with a week - on - week increase of $0.08. The price of Northeast Asian ethylene is $825 per ton, with a week - on - week increase of $5; the price of naphtha (CFR Japan) is $568 per ton, with a week - on - week decrease of $2.5; the intermediate price of butadiene (CFR China) is $1,070 per ton, with no week - on - week change. The mainstream price of butadiene in the Shandong market is 9,440 yuan/ton, with a week - on - week decrease of 60 yuan/ton. The weekly capacity of butadiene is 146,900 tons, with a week - on - week decrease of 800 tons; the capacity utilization rate of butadiene is 69.76%, with a week - on - week decrease of 0.21 percentage points. The port inventory of butadiene is 14,700 tons, with a week - on - week increase of 4,300 tons. The operating rate of Shandong local refineries' atmospheric and vacuum distillation units is 46.87%, with a week - on - week decrease of 1.33 percentage points [2]. Downstream Situation - The monthly output of butadiene rubber is 122,500 tons, with a month - on - month decrease of 16,900 tons. The weekly capacity utilization rate of butadiene rubber is 68.17%, with a week - on - week decrease of 4.29 percentage points. The weekly production profit of butadiene rubber is - 606 yuan/ton, with a week - on - week decrease of 231 yuan/ton. The social inventory of butadiene rubber is 31,400 tons, with a week - on - week increase of 100 tons; the manufacturer's inventory of butadiene rubber is 24,150 tons, with a week - on - week increase of 350 tons; the trader's inventory of butadiene rubber is 7,290 tons, with a week - on - week decrease of 230 tons. The weekly operating rate of domestic semi - steel tires is 74.35%, with a week - on - week decrease of 0.1 percentage point; the weekly operating rate of domestic all - steel tires is 61%, with a week - on - week decrease of 0.08 percentage point. The monthly output of all - steel tires is 12.62 million pieces, with a month - on - month increase of 800,000 pieces; the monthly output of semi - steel tires is 55.23 million pieces, with a month - on - month increase of 1.08 million pieces. The inventory days of all - steel tires in Shandong are 39.37 days, with a week - on - week decrease of 0.08 days; the inventory days of semi - steel tires in Shandong are 46.45 days, with a week - on - week increase of 0.81 days [2]. Industry News - As of August 6, the inventory of China's high - cis butadiene rubber sample enterprises was 31,400 tons, an increase of 100 tons from the previous period, a week - on - week increase of 0.38%. As of August 7, the capacity utilization rate of China's semi - steel tire sample enterprises was 69.71%, a week - on - week decrease of 0.27 percentage points and a year - on - year decrease of 9.93 percentage points. The capacity utilization rate of China's all - steel tire sample enterprises was 60.06%, a week - on - week increase of 0.80 percentage points and a year - on - year increase of 0.73 percentage points. In July 2025, China's butadiene rubber output was 129,200 tons, an increase of 6,700 tons from the previous month, a month - on - month increase of 5.47% and a year - on - year increase of 27.04% [2]. 4. Focus - No news is reported today.

不锈钢产业日报 2025-08-12 | 项目类别 | 数据指标 | 最新 | 环比 数据指标 | 最新 | 环比 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 期货市场 | 期货主力合约收盘价:不锈钢(日,元/吨) | 13200 | -25 09-10月合约价差:不锈钢(日,元/吨) | -75 | 5 8414 | | | 期货前20名持仓:净买单量:不锈钢(日,手) | -17852 | -474 主力合约持仓量:不锈钢(日,手) | 143674 | | | | 仓单数量:不锈钢(日,吨) | 103940 | 904 | | | | 现货市场 | 304/2B卷:切边:无锡(日,元/吨) | 13800 | 150 市场价:废不锈钢304:无锡(日,元/吨) | 9700 | 100 | | | SS主力合约基差(日,元/吨) | 220 | 75 | | | | 上游情况 | 电解镍产量(月,吨) | 29430 | 1120 镍铁产量合计(月,万金属吨) | 2.26 | -0.13 | | | 进口数量:精炼镍及合金(月,吨) | 17215.27 | ...