1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The main contract of Shanghai copper fluctuates strongly, with an increase in open interest, spot premium, and weakening basis. Fundamentally, in the mining end, the TC cost of copper concentrate has improved but remains in the negative range, and the port inventory in China has slightly increased. The tight supply of copper ore still supports the copper price. In terms of supply, due to the increase in newly put - into - production capacity and the high price of by - product sulfuric acid to make up for smelting losses, smelters are currently actively producing. However, considering the supply of copper concentrate, the production growth rate may gradually slow down. In terms of demand, the impact of the consumption off - season is expected to continue, and the export demand will be suppressed due to the high taxes on copper products in the US. So the downstream consumption demand may slow down, and the total inventory remains at a medium - low level. Overall, the fundamentals of Shanghai copper may be in a situation where the supply growth rate gradually slows down and the demand is slightly weak due to seasonal changes and trade tariffs. In the options market, the call - put ratio of at - the - money options is 1.25, with a month - on - month increase of 0.0050, indicating a bullish sentiment, and the implied volatility slightly decreases. Technically, the 60 - minute MACD has both lines above the 0 - axis and the red bars are converging. The operation suggestion is to conduct light - position oscillating trading and pay attention to controlling the rhythm and trading risks [2] 3. Summary According to the Directory 3.1 Futures Market - The closing price of the main futures contract of Shanghai copper is 79,380 yuan/ton, up 360 yuan; the LME 3 - month copper price is 9,845.50 dollars/ton, up 5 dollars. The spread between the main contracts of different months is 0 yuan/ton, up 60 yuan. The open interest of the main contract of Shanghai copper is 158,877 lots, up 2,833 lots. The long - short position of the top 20 futures of Shanghai copper is 4,902 lots, up 5,608 lots. The LME copper inventory is 155,000 tons, down 700 tons; the Shanghai Futures Exchange inventory of cathode copper is 81,933 tons, up 9,390 tons; the LME copper cancelled warrants are 11,600 tons, down 375 tons; the Shanghai Futures Exchange warrants of cathode copper are 22,800 tons, down 2,856 tons [2] 3.2 Spot Market - The SMM 1 copper spot price is 79,475 yuan/ton, up 325 yuan; the Yangtze River Non - ferrous Market 1 copper spot price is 79,400 yuan/ton, up 305 yuan. The CIF (bill of lading) price of Shanghai electrolytic copper is 55 dollars/ton, unchanged; the average premium of Yangshan copper is 47 dollars/ton, unchanged. The basis of the CU main contract is 95 yuan/ton, down 35 yuan; the LME copper cash - to - 3 - month spread is - 87.14 dollars/ton, down 3.89 dollars [2] 3.3 Upstream Situation - The import volume of copper ore and concentrates is 234.97 million tons, down 4.58 million tons. The TC cost of domestic copper smelters is - 38.06 dollars/kiloton, up 4.03 dollars. The price of copper concentrate in Jiangxi is 69,720 yuan/metal ton, up 320 yuan; the price of copper concentrate in Yunnan is 70,420 yuan/metal ton, up 320 yuan. The processing fee of blister copper in the south is 900 yuan/ton, unchanged; the processing fee of blister copper in the north is 750 yuan/ton, unchanged. The monthly output of refined copper is 1.302 billion tons, up 480,000 tons; the import volume of unwrought copper and copper products is 480,000 tons, up 20,000 tons [2] 3.4 Industry Situation - The social inventory of copper is 41.82 million tons, up 0.43 million tons. The price of 1 bright copper wire in Shanghai is 0 yuan/ton, down 55,490 yuan; the price of 2 copper (94 - 96%) in Shanghai is 68,150 yuan/ton, up 200 yuan. The ex - factory price of 98% sulfuric acid of Jiangxi Copper is 640 yuan/ton, unchanged [2] 3.5 Downstream and Application - The monthly output of copper products is 221.45 million tons, up 11.85 million tons. The cumulative completed investment in power grid infrastructure is 29.11 billion yuan, up 8.7114 billion yuan. The cumulative completed investment in real estate development is 466.5756 billion yuan, up 104.2372 billion yuan. The monthly output of integrated circuits is 4,505,785,400 pieces, up 270,785,400 pieces [2] 3.6 Option Situation - The 20 - day historical volatility of Shanghai copper is 9.30%, up 0.07%; the 40 - day historical volatility of Shanghai copper is 9.72%, up 0.02%. The implied volatility of the current - month at - the - money IV is 9.12%, down 0.0023%. The call - put ratio of at - the - money options is 1.25, up 0.0050 [2] 3.7 Industry News - China and the US issued the "Joint Statement of the China - US Stockholm Economic and Trade Talks". The US promised to continue to adjust the measures of imposing tariffs on Chinese goods, and China continued to suspend the implementation of 24% tariffs on the US and relevant non - tariff counter - measures for 90 days. The Ministry of Finance and other three departments issued the "Implementation Plan for the Fiscal Interest Subsidy Policy for Personal Consumption Loans". From September 1, 2025, to August 31, 2026, eligible personal consumption loans (excluding credit cards) can enjoy fiscal interest subsidies. The US CPI in July was flat year - on - year at 2.7%, lower than the expected 2.8%, and up 0.2% month - on - month, in line with market expectations. The core CPI in July rose 3.1% year - on - year, higher than the expected 3%, reaching a new high since February. After the data was released, the market expected the probability of the Fed cutting interest rates at the September meeting to exceed 90%. The US Treasury Secretary suggested that the Fed should cut interest rates by 50 basis points in September. Richmond Fed President Barkin said there may be pressure on inflation and unemployment, and the balance between the two is unclear. Kansas Fed President Schmid said tariffs have limited impact on inflation [2]

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. 2. Core View of the Report The macro - situation in the US is favorable for the non - ferrous sector. The start - up rate and output of primary lead smelters are rising, and primary lead maintains an advantage over recycled lead. The supply of recycled lead is regionally differentiated and generally tight. The demand for lead is mainly in the lead - acid battery field, currently in a slow recovery phase. Although the 8 - month consumption increase is expected to be weak, there is a possibility of improvement as the peak season deepens. The inventory has shown a slight downward trend, and the overall demand is expected to gradually strengthen, which will support the lead price. It is recommended to buy on dips for Shanghai lead this week [3]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Futures Market - The closing price of the main Shanghai lead contract is 16,930 yuan/ton, down 10 yuan/ton; the 09 - 10 contract spread of Shanghai lead is 0 yuan/ton; the position of Shanghai lead is 95,492 lots, up 18.5 lots; the net position of the top 20 in Shanghai lead is - 3,773 lots; the warehouse receipt of Shanghai lead is 62,535 tons, up 2,744 tons; the inventory of the Shanghai Futures Exchange is 62,334 tons, down 949 tons; the LME lead inventory is 262,250 tons, down 3,550 tons [3]. 3.2 Spot Market - The spot price of 1 lead in Shanghai Non - ferrous Metals Network is 16,750 yuan/ton, down 25 yuan/ton; the spot price of 1 lead in the Yangtze River Non - ferrous Metals Market is 16,960 yuan/ton, unchanged; the basis of the lead main contract is - 180 yuan/ton, down 40 yuan/ton; the LME lead premium (0 - 3) is - 38.73 US dollars/ton, down 3.23 US dollars/ton [3]. 3.3 Upstream Situation - The production enterprise number of recycled lead is 68, unchanged; the capacity utilization rate of recycled lead is 34.15%, down 0.8%; the monthly output of recycled lead is 22.42 tons, down 6.75 tons; the average weekly start - up rate of primary lead is 75.65%, down 1.84%; the weekly output of primary lead is 3.38 tons, down 0.03 tons; the ILZSG lead supply - demand balance is 16.4 thousand tons, up 48.8 thousand tons; the global lead ore output of ILZSG is 399.7 thousand tons, down 3.7 thousand tons; the monthly lead ore import volume is 11.97 tons, up 2.48 tons [3]. 3.4 Industry Situation - The monthly refined lead import volume is 815.37 tons, down 1,021.76 tons; the monthly refined lead export volume is 223.33 tons; the average domestic processing fee of lead concentrate to the factory is 540 yuan/ton, unchanged; the average price of waste batteries in the market is 10,205.36 yuan/ton, unchanged [3]. 3.5 Downstream Situation - The export volume of batteries is 19,975 thousand pieces, down 25 thousand pieces; the output of automobiles is 280.86 million vehicles, up 16.66 million vehicles; the output of new energy vehicles is 164.7 million vehicles [3]. 3.6 Industry News - The total US debt has exceeded 37 trillion US dollars for the first time. The unadjusted CPI annual rate in the US in July was flat at 2.7%, and the unadjusted core CPI annual rate rose to a five - month high of 3.1%. After the data was released, traders increased their bets on a Fed rate cut in September. Trump proposed that Fed Chairman Powell should cut interest rates and allow a lawsuit against him. US Treasury Secretary Yellen suggested that the Fed cut interest rates by 50 basis points in September. Trump's nominee for the Bureau of Labor Statistics proposed to suspend the release of monthly employment reports. Fed nominee Milan said he was glad to see good inflation performance [3].

| | | 沪锡产业日报 2025-08-13 何保证，据此投资，责任自负。本报告不构成个人投资建议，客户应考虑本报告中的任何意见或建议是否符合其特定状况。本 报告版权仅为我公司所有，未经书面许可，任何机构和个人不得以任何形式翻版、复制和发布。如引用、刊发，需注明出处为 瑞达期货股份有限公司研究院，且不得对本报告进行有悖原意的引用、删节和修改。 | 项目类别 | 数据指标 | 最新 | 环比 数据指标 | 最新 | 环比 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 期货市场 | 期货主力合约收盘价:沪锡(日,元/吨) | 269820 | -380 9月-10月合约收盘价:沪锡(日,元/吨) | -230 | -30 | | | LME3个月锡(日,美元/吨) | 33770 | 55 主力合约持仓量:沪锡(日,手) | 25370 | -1155 | | | 期货前20名净持仓:沪锡(日,手) | -129 | -117 LME锡:总库存(日,吨) | 1765 | 15 | | | 上期所库存:锡(周,吨) | 7805 | 134 LME锡:注销仓单(日,吨) | ...

Report Information - Report Name: Treasury Bond Futures Daily Report 2025/8/12 [1] - Researcher: Liao Hongbin [3] - Futures从业资格号: F30825507 [3] - Futures Investment Consulting Practitioner Certificate Number: Z0020723 [3] Investment Rating - Not provided Core Views - On August 12, the yields of treasury bond cash bonds weakened collectively, with the yields of 1Y - 7Y maturities rising by about 0.10 - 0.60bp, and the yields of 10Y and 30Y rising by about 1bp to 1.72% and 1.97% respectively. Treasury bond futures also weakened collectively, with the main contracts of TS, TF, T, and TL falling by 0.02%, 0.01%, 0.04%, and 0.31% respectively. The central bank continued to conduct net withdrawals, and the weighted average rate of DR007 rebounded slightly to around 1.47% [2]. - Domestically, the effect of policies to expand domestic demand has emerged. In July, the year - on - year growth rate of core CPI continued to rise, and the month - on - month decline of PPI narrowed. The PMIs of the manufacturing and non - manufacturing sectors declined comprehensively in July, with the marginal decline of supply and demand. The composite PMI declined slightly but remained above the boom - bust line, indicating that overall production and business activities remained stable. In terms of trade, the export growth rate continued to rise in July, showing the resilience of foreign trade [2]. - Overseas, the suspension period of Sino - US tariffs was extended by another 90 days. The US labor market showed signs of weakness. The non - farm payrolls in July were lower than expected, and the previous value was significantly revised down. The non - farm employment numbers from May to June were revised down by 258,000, and the unemployment rate rose slightly, increasing the market's expectation of a Fed rate cut in September [2]. - In terms of strategy, the equity market has been strong recently, with the stock index approaching the high since last October, triggering concentrated selling of bonds by trading accounts. The selling pressure on the ultra - long end of interest - rate bonds is significant, and the spread between the 10 - year and 30 - year bonds has continued to widen, highlighting a bear - steepening curve. Currently, the bond market is still anchored to equity fluctuations. Under the unchanged dominance of risk preference, the linkage between stock and bond fluctuations may further strengthen. It is recommended to wait and see for now [2]. Summary by Category Futures Market - **Futures Prices and Volumes**: On August 12, the closing prices of T, TF, TS, and TL main contracts were 108.420 (-0.04%), 105.715 (0%), 102.338 (-0.02%), and 118.140 (-0.31%) respectively. The trading volumes of T, TF, TS, and TL main contracts were 76,952 (+4,763), 48,505 (+1,665), 34,415 (+25), and 123,182 (+7,595) respectively [2]. - **Futures Spreads**: The spreads of TL2512 - 2509, T2512 - 2509, TF2512 - 2509, and TS2512 - 2509 were -0.40 (+0.03), -0.11 (-0.01), 0.01 (-0.04), and 0.04 (+0.00) respectively. Other spreads such as T09 - TL09, TF09 - T09, etc. also changed [2]. - **Futures Positions**: The positions of T, TF, TS, and TL main contracts decreased by 10,169, 3,491, 1,557, and 5,060 respectively. The net short positions of the top 20 in T, TF, TS, and TL changed by +2,430, -771, -1,333, and +2,066 respectively [2]. Bond Market - **CTD Bonds**: The net prices of several CTD bonds such as 220010.IB, 250007.IB, etc. declined on August 12 [2]. - **Active Bonds**: The yields of 1 - year, 3 - year, 5 - year, 7 - year, and 10 - year active bonds increased by 0.50bp, 1.50bp, 3.50bp, 2.95bp, and 2.65bp respectively [2]. Interest Rates - **Short - term Interest Rates**: The rates of silver - pledged overnight, 7 - day, and 14 - day were 1.4423% (+14.23bp), 1.4800% (+3.00bp), and 1.4860% (-1.40bp) respectively. The Shibor overnight, 7 - day, and 14 - day rates were 1.3150% (0.00bp), 1.4330% (+0.10bp), and 1.4560% (+0.10bp) respectively [2]. - **LPR Rates**: The 1 - year and 5 - year LPR rates remained unchanged at 3.00% and 3.5% respectively [2]. Open Market Operations - On August 12, the issuance scale of open - market reverse repurchase was 114.6 billion yuan, the maturity scale was 160.7 billion yuan, and the interest rate was 1.4% for 7 days, with a net withdrawal of 46.1 billion yuan [2]. Policy News - The nine departments including the Ministry of Finance issued the "Implementation Plan for the Loan Interest Subsidy Policy for Service Industry Business Entities". Loans that meet certain conditions can enjoy the interest - subsidy policy. The interest - subsidy period does not exceed 1 year, with an annual subsidy ratio of 1 percentage point. The central and provincial finances will bear 90% and 10% of the subsidy funds respectively [2]. Key Data to Watch - August 12, 20:30, US July unadjusted CPI annual rate; August 14, 20:30, US initial jobless claims for the week ended August 9 (in ten thousand people) [3]

Report Summary 1. Investment Rating - No investment rating information is provided in the report. 2. Core View - V2509 is fluctuating strongly, closing at 5047 yuan/ton. With new capacity coming online in August and the restart of some maintenance devices, PVC supply is expected to increase. Domestic downstream demand is in the off - season with only rigid demand. Although the anti - dumping policy and BIS certification delays, the rainy season still hinders overseas demand. In the short term, V2509 is expected to fluctuate slightly in the range of 4900 - 5100 yuan/ton, and V2601 needs to pay attention to the support around 5040 and the pressure around 5300 [3]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Market Data - **Futures Market**: The closing price of PVC futures is 5047 yuan/ton, up 37 yuan; the trading volume is 760,070 lots, up 25,631 lots; the open interest is 531,672 lots, down 57,649 lots. The net long position of the top 20 futures holders is - 30,080 lots, down 8012 lots [3]. - **Spot Market**: The prices of ethylene - based PVC in East China and South China are 5125 yuan/ton and 5035 yuan/ton respectively, with no change; the prices of calcium - carbide - based PVC in East China and South China are 4905.38 yuan/ton and 4935.62 yuan/ton respectively, with the latter down 13.12 yuan. The CIF prices in China and Southeast Asia are 700 and 680 US dollars/ton respectively, with no change. The FOB price in Northwest Europe is 750 US dollars/ton, with no change. The basis is - 127 yuan/ton, down 7 yuan [3]. - **Upstream Situation**: The mainstream average price of calcium carbide in Central China, North China and Northwest China is 2650 yuan/ton, 2623.33 yuan/ton and 2409 yuan/ton respectively, with the latter up 5 yuan. The mainstream price of liquid chlorine in Inner Mongolia is - 575 yuan/ton, with no change. The intermediate prices of VCM CFR in the Far East and Southeast Asia are 521 and 548 US dollars/ton respectively, with no change. The intermediate prices of EDC CFR in the Far East and Southeast Asia are 189 and 198 US dollars/ton respectively, down 22 and 21 US dollars [3]. - **Industrial Situation**: The weekly operating rate of PVC is 79.46%, up 2.62 percentage points; the operating rate of calcium - carbide - based PVC is 78.65%, up 2.62 percentage points; the operating rate of ethylene - based PVC is 81.49%, up 2.5 percentage points. The total social inventory of PVC is 48.08 tons, up 3.28 tons, with 42.37 tons in East China (up 2.89 tons) and 5.71 tons in South China (up 0.39 tons) [3]. - **Downstream Situation**: The national real - estate climate index is 93.6, down 0.12. The cumulative new housing construction area is 30,364.32 square meters, up 7180.71 square meters; the cumulative real - estate construction area is 633,321.43 square meters, up 8301.89 square meters; the cumulative real - estate development investment is 24475.5 billion yuan, up 5320.69 billion yuan [3]. - **Option Market**: The 20 - day historical volatility of PVC is 29.06%, down 0.06 percentage points; the 40 - day historical volatility is 22.97%, up 0.01 percentage points. The implied volatility of at - the - money put and call options is 20.33%, up 2.15 percentage points [3]. 3.2 Industry News - The Ministry of Finance, the Central Bank and other departments issued the Implementation Plan for the Loan Interest Subsidy Policy for Service Industry Business Entities to provide interest subsidies for eligible service industry business loans [3]. - China and the US agreed to suspend the implementation of a 24% tariff for 90 days starting from August 12, 2025 [3]. - On August 12, the market prices of PVCSG5 in Shanghai, Changzhou and Hangzhou increased by 0 - 60 yuan/ton compared with the previous day, ranging from 4860 - 4950 yuan/ton [3]. - From August 2 to August 8, China's PVC capacity utilization rate was 79.46%, up 2.62 percentage points from the previous period. The downstream operating rate of PVC increased by 0.8% to 42.85%, with the pipe operating rate down 0.87% to 32.09% and the profile operating rate down 0.09% to 36.91%. As of August 7, the social inventory of PVC increased by 7.49% to 77.63 tons week - on - week and decreased by 17.52% year - on - year [3].

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided 2. Core Viewpoints - Despite weak domestic urea demand, the decline in urea prices has revived downstream purchasing enthusiasm. The unexpectedly high Indian urea tender price has boosted market sentiment, and some plant shutdowns for maintenance have led to a slight decrease in domestic urea enterprise inventory last week. Considering the limited short - term trading volume and weak domestic demand, urea enterprises may accumulate inventory again. The UR2601 contract is recommended to trade in the range of 1735 - 1800 [2] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Futures Market - The closing price of the Zhengzhou urea main contract is 1727 yuan/ton, up 5 yuan; the 9 - 1 spread is - 29 yuan/ton, unchanged; the main contract position is 91863 lots, down 17911 lots; the top 20 net positions are - 24437, down 5576; the exchange warehouse receipts are 3823, up 200 [2] 3.2现货市场 - In the domestic spot market, prices in Hebei, Henan, Jiangsu, Shandong, and Anhui have decreased, with decreases ranging from 10 - 50 yuan/ton. The FOB prices in the Baltic and Chinese main ports remain unchanged at 455 and 460 US dollars/ton respectively. The basis of the Zhengzhou urea main contract is - 7 yuan/ton, down 15 yuan [2] 3.3 Industry Situation - Port inventory is 48.3 tons, down 10,000 tons week - on - week; enterprise inventory is 88.76 tons, down 2.97 tons week - on - week. The urea enterprise operating rate is 81.98%, down 1.62%; the daily urea output is 189,800 tons, down 3700 tons. The urea export volume is 7 tons, up 7 tons. The monthly urea output is 6,031,340 tons, down 261,890 tons [2] 3.4下游情况 - The compound fertilizer operating rate is 41.5%, up 2.82%; the melamine operating rate is 61.1%, down 2.4%. The weekly profit of compound fertilizer is 98 yuan/ton, down 3 yuan; the weekly profit of melamine with externally purchased urea is - 344 yuan/ton, up 51 yuan. The monthly compound fertilizer output is 4.1682 million tons, down 640,800 tons; the weekly melamine output is 30,300 tons, down 1200 tons [2] 3.5 Industry News - As of August 6, the total inventory of Chinese urea enterprises was 88.76 tons, a week - on - week decrease of 2.97 tons, or 3.24%. As of August 7, the port sample inventory was 48.3 tons, a week - on - week decrease of 10,000 tons, or 2.03%. As of August 7, the output of Chinese urea production enterprises was 1.3285 million tons, a decrease of 26,300 tons from the previous period, or 1.94%. The capacity utilization rate was 81.98%, a decrease of 1.62% from the previous period [2] 3.6提示关注 - Pay attention to Longzhong's enterprise inventory, port inventory, daily output, and operating rate on Thursday [2]

烧碱产业日报 2025-08-12 | 项目类别 | 数据指标 | 最新 | 环比 | 数据指标 | 最新 | 环比 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 期货市场 | 主力收盘价:烧碱(日,元/吨) 10 烧碱主力合约持仓量(日,手) | 2502 | | | 74145 | -10407 | | | 期货前20名净持仓:烧碱(日,手) -3349 烧碱主力合约成交量(日,手) | -19342 | | | 147625 | -51599 | | | 合约收盘价:烧碱:1月(日,元/吨) 41 合约收盘价:烧碱:5月(日,元/吨) | 2636 | | | 2722 | 44 | | | 期货前20名净持仓:烧碱(日,手) | -19342 | -3349 | | | | | 现货市场 | 烧碱(32%离子膜碱):山东地区(日,元/吨) 0 烧碱(32%离子膜碱):江苏地区(日,元/吨) | 800 | | | 890 | 0 | | | 山东地区32%烧碱折百价(日,元/吨) | 2500 | 0 基差:烧碱(日,元/吨) | | -2 | -10 ...

Report Overview - The report is a methanol industry daily report dated August 12, 2025, providing comprehensive data and analysis on the methanol market [1] 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No investment rating is provided in the report 2. Report's Core View - The MA2601 contract is expected to fluctuate in the range of 2460 - 2520 in the short - term. The overall methanol production decreased slightly recently as the output from restored capacity was less than the loss from检修 and production cuts. Last week, the inventory of inland enterprises decreased, while the port inventory increased significantly. After offsetting the operations of various enterprise devices, the olefin industry's开工 rate increased slightly last week but is expected to decline this week due to the expected shutdown of Shenhua Xinjiang's olefin device [2] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalog 3.1 Futures Market - The closing price of the main methanol contract was 2391 yuan/ton, up 2 yuan; the 9 - 1 spread was - 105 yuan/ton, down 9 yuan. The main contract's open interest was 344,949 lots, down 27,812 lots; the net long position of the top 20 futures holders was - 101,738 lots, down 8,751 lots. The number of warehouse receipts was 11,168, up 1080 [2] 3.2 Spot Market - The price in Jiangsu Taicang was 2370 yuan/ton, up 5 yuan; in Inner Mongolia, it was 2102.5 yuan/ton, up 10 yuan. The East - Northwest price difference was 267.5 yuan/ton, down 5 yuan; the basis of the main Zhengzhou methanol contract was - 21 yuan/ton, up 3 yuan. CFR China Main Port was 269 dollars/ton (unchanged), CFR Southeast Asia was 333 dollars/ton (unchanged), FOB Rotterdam was 265 euros/ton, down 5 euros, and the China Main Port - Southeast Asia price difference was - 64 dollars/ton (unchanged) [2] 3.3 Upstream Situation - NYMEX natural gas was 2.98 dollars/million British thermal units, down 0.02 dollars [2] 3.4 Industry Situation - The inventory in East China ports was 64.2 tons (weekly), up 7 tons; in South China ports, it was 28.35 tons (weekly), up 4.71 tons. The methanol import profit was 32.79 yuan/ton, down 10 yuan; the monthly import volume was 122.02 tons, down 7.21 tons. The inventory of inland enterprises was 293,700 tons (weekly), down 30,800 tons; the methanol enterprise operating rate was 81.61%, down 3.75% [2] 3.5 Downstream Situation - The formaldehyde operating rate was 41.62% (weekly), down 1.67%; the dimethyl ether operating rate was 5.33% (weekly, unchanged); the acetic acid operating rate was 89.24% (weekly), down 2.16%; the MTBE operating rate was 66.62% (weekly), down 1.17%; the olefin operating rate was 83.89% (weekly), down 1.38%. The methanol - to - olefin's on - paper profit was - 848 yuan/ton, up 24 yuan [2] 3.6 Option Market - The 20 - day historical volatility of methanol was 24.9%, down 0.04%; the 40 - day historical volatility was 24.11%, down 0.01%. The implied volatility of at - the - money call options was 15.85%, up 3.02%; the implied volatility of at - the - money put options was 15.85%, up 3.03% [2] 3.7 Industry News - As of August 6, the total methanol port inventory in China was 92.55 tons, up 11.71 tons from the previous period. East China and South China both saw inventory increases. The inventory of sample methanol production enterprises was 29.37 tons, down 3.08 tons (a 9.50% decrease), and the sample enterprises' orders to be delivered were 24.08 tons, up 1.01 tons (a 4.37% increase). As of August 7, the domestic methanol - to - olefin device's capacity utilization rate was 85.11%, up 1.5% [2]

苯乙烯产业日报 2025-08-12 | 项目类别 | 数据指标 | 最新 | 环比 数据指标 | 最新 | 环比 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 期货市场 | 期货收盘价(活跃合约):苯乙烯(日,元/吨) 前20名持仓:买单量:苯乙烯(日,手) | 7322 314868 | 72 期货成交量(活跃:成交量):苯乙烯(EB)(日, 手) 8863 10月合约收盘价:苯乙烯(日,元/吨) | 214365 7348 | 19003 76 | | | 期货持仓量(活跃:成交量):苯乙烯(EB)(日, | | | | | | | | 210323 | -16855 前20名持仓:净买单量:苯乙烯(日,手) | -17227 | -4811 | | | 手) 前20名持仓:卖单量:苯乙烯(日,手) 现货价:苯乙烯(日,元/吨) | 332095 7610 | 13674 仓单数量:苯乙烯:总计(日,手) 6 苯乙烯:FOB韩国:中间价(日,美元/吨) | 646 889 | -100 2 | | | 苯乙烯:CFR中国:中间价(日,美元/吨) | 899 | 市场 ...

Report Summary 1. Industry Investment Rating No industry investment rating was provided in the report. 2. Core View On Tuesday, the RB2510 contract fluctuated with a bullish bias. Macroeconomically, the joint statement of the China-US economic and trade talks in Stockholm announced a 90 - day suspension of the 24% tariff starting from August 12, 2025. In terms of supply and demand, the weekly output of rebar increased significantly this period, with a capacity utilization rate of 48.49%. Inventories continued to rise, and the apparent demand turned from a decline to an increase. Overall, the macro - expectation is positive, the production restrictions in Tangshan boosted market sentiment, and the strong rise in coal prices provided cost support. Technically, the 1 - hour MACD indicator of the RB2510 contract shows that DIFF is rising above DEA. The operation strategy is to be bullish in a fluctuating market, while paying attention to rhythm and risk control [2]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Futures Market - The closing price of the RB main contract was 3,258 yuan/ton, up 8 yuan; the position volume was 1,605,388 lots, down 7,237 lots. The net position of the top 20 in the RB contract was - 75,900 lots, up 4,267 lots. The RB10 - 1 contract spread was - 78 yuan/ton, down 9 yuan. The RB warehouse receipt at the SHFE was 97,654 tons, up 1,197 tons. The HC2510 - RB2510 contract spread was 226 yuan/ton, up 11 yuan [2]. 现货市场 - The price of HRB400E 20MM in Hangzhou (theoretical weight) was 3,420 yuan/ton, up 10 yuan; the price of HRB400E 20MM in Hangzhou (actual weight) was 3,508 yuan/ton, up 10 yuan. The price of HRB400E 20MM in Guangzhou (theoretical weight) was 3,400 yuan/ton, up 20 yuan; the price of HRB400E 20MM in Tianjin (theoretical weight) was 3,360 yuan/ton, up 20 yuan. The basis of the RB main contract was 162 yuan/ton, up 2 yuan. The spot price difference between hot - rolled coils and rebar in Hangzhou was 110 yuan/ton, up 10 yuan [2]. Upstream Situation - The price of 61.5% PB fines at Qingdao Port was 782 yuan/wet ton, up 6 yuan. The price of quasi - first - grade metallurgical coke in Hebei was 1,535 yuan/ton, unchanged. The price of 6 - 8mm scrap steel in Tangshan (tax - excluded) was 2,250 yuan/ton, unchanged. The price of Q235 billets in Hebei was 3,120 yuan/ton, up 20 yuan. The iron ore inventory at 45 ports was 13,712.27 million tons, up 54.37 million tons. The coke inventory of sample coking plants was 44.36 million tons, down 1.92 million tons [2]. Industry Situation - The coke inventory of sample steel mills was 619.30 million tons, down 7.48 million tons. The billet inventory in Tangshan was 115.36 million tons, up 4.34 million tons. The blast furnace operating rate of 247 steel mills was 83.77%, up 0.29%. The blast furnace capacity utilization rate of 247 steel mills was 90.07%, down 0.15%. The rebar output of sample steel mills was 221.18 million tons, up 10.12 million tons. The rebar capacity utilization rate of sample steel mills was 48.49%, up 2.22%. The rebar inventory in sample steel mills was 168.20 million tons, up 6.05 million tons. The social rebar inventory in 35 cities was 388.48 million tons, up 4.34 million tons. The operating rate of independent electric arc furnace steel mills was 71.88%, up 2.09%. The monthly domestic crude steel output was 8,318 million tons, down 336 million tons. The monthly output of Chinese steel bars was 1,688 million tons, up 30 million tons. The monthly net steel export volume was 938.40 million tons, up 17.40 million tons [2]. Downstream Situation - The national real estate climate index was 93.60, down 0.11. The cumulative year - on - year growth rate of fixed - asset investment was 2.80%, down 0.90%. The cumulative year - on - year growth rate of real estate development investment was - 11.20%, down 0.50%. The cumulative year - on - year growth rate of infrastructure construction investment was 4.60%, down 1.00%. The cumulative floor area under construction was 633,321 million square meters, down 8,302 million square meters. The cumulative floor area of newly started buildings was 30,364 million square meters, down 7,181 million square meters. The inventory of commercial housing for sale was 40,821.00 million square meters, up 443.00 million square meters [2]. Industry News - The Ministry of Finance, the People's Bank of China, and the National Financial Regulatory Administration issued the "Implementation Plan for the Fiscal Interest Subsidy Policy for Personal Consumption Loans." From September 1, 2025, to August 31, 2026, residents using personal consumption loans (excluding credit card business) for actual consumption, and the loan - issuing institutions can identify relevant consumption transaction information, can enjoy the interest subsidy policy as stipulated. The Ministry of Finance, the People's Bank of China, and seven other departments issued the "Implementation Plan for the Interest Subsidy Policy for Loans to Service Industry Business Entities." Eligible loans issued by the handling banks to service industry business entities in eight consumption fields, including catering and accommodation, health, elderly care, childcare, housekeeping, cultural and entertainment, tourism, and sports, can enjoy the interest subsidy policy [2].