Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No investment rating information is provided in the report. 2. Core View The overall performance of A-share Q3 reports is good, providing bottom support for the market. However, the significant decline in external demand in October, which supported GDP in the first three quarters, is expected to drag down the Q4 economic fundamentals and have a certain negative impact on the stock market sentiment. Currently, after the disclosure of A-share Q3 reports and with no important domestic meetings scheduled within the month, the market is in a policy and performance vacuum period. In an environment lacking clear trading guidance, the market is expected to show a random walk, and stock index futures will maintain volatility. It is recommended to wait and see for now [2]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Futures Contract Data - **IF Contracts**: The latest price of the IF (2512) main contract is 4672.0, up 13.0 from the previous period; the IF (2511) sub - main contract is 4686.2, up 13.2. The IF - IH monthly contract spread is 1631.4, down 2.8; IF's quarterly - to - monthly spread for the current quarter is - 46.2, up 0.6, and for the next quarter is - 90.8, down 4.8. The net position of the top 20 in IF is - 26,057.00, down 1661.0 [2]. - **IH Contracts**: The latest price of the IH (2512) main contract is 3054.0, up 13.8; the IH (2511) sub - main contract is 3054.8, up 13.6. The IH quarterly - to - monthly spread for the current quarter is - 5.2, down 1.0, and for the next quarter is - 11.2, unchanged. The net position of the top 20 in IH is - 14,565.00, down 343.0 [2]. - **IC Contracts**: The latest price of the IC (2512) main contract is 7235.8, up 5.0; the IC (2511) sub - main contract is 7302.8, up 10.4. The IC - IF monthly contract spread is 2616.6, down 2.4; the IC - IH monthly contract spread is 4248.0, down 5.2. The IC quarterly - to - monthly spread for the current quarter is - 237.8, down 7.2, and for the next quarter is - 428, down 11.0. The net position of the top 20 in IC is - 21,784.00, down 2150.0 [2]. - **IM Contracts**: The latest price of the IM (2512) main contract is 7421.0, up 9.4; the IM (2511) sub - main contract is 7508.8, up 16.2. The IM - IC monthly contract spread is 206.0, up 4.6; the IM - IF monthly contract spread is 2822.6, up 2.2; the IM - IH monthly contract spread is 4454.0, down 0.6. The IM quarterly - to - monthly spread for the current quarter is - 309.6, down 7.2, and for the next quarter is - 524.6, down 6.2. 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Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant information provided Core Views - On November 10, the manganese - silicon 2601 contract was reported at 5820, up 0.97%, and the Inner Mongolia silicon - manganese spot was reported at 5570. The market should be treated as oscillating, and investors are advised to control risks [2]. - On November 10, the ferrosilicon 2601 contract was reported at 5588, up 0.83%, and the Ningxia ferrosilicon spot was reported at 5270. The market should be treated as oscillating, and investors are advised to control risks [2]. Summary by Related Catalogs Futures Market - SM主力合约收盘价为5820元/吨，环比上涨60元；SF主力合约收盘价为5588元/吨，环比上涨62元 [2] - SM期货合约持仓量为568951手，环比减少955手；SF期货合约持仓量为350554手，环比减少6769手 [2] - 锰硅前20名净持仓为 - 57191手，环比减少8479手；硅铁前20名净持仓为 - 36432手，环比增加142手 [2] - SM5 - 1月合约价差为58元/吨，环比上涨4元；SF5 - 1月合约价差为66元/吨，环比无变化 [2] - SM仓单为16357张，环比增加1999张；SF仓单为7197张，环比增加1498张 [2] Spot Market - 内蒙古、贵州锰硅FeMn68Si18价格为5600元/吨，环比上涨30元；云南锰硅FeMn68Si18价格为5580元/吨，环比无变化 [2] - 内蒙古硅铁FeSi75 - B价格为5300元/吨，青海硅铁FeSi75 - B价格为5200元/吨，宁夏硅铁FeSi75 - B价格为5270元/吨，环比均无变化 [2] - 锰硅指数均值为5595元/吨，环比下降51元；SM主力合约基差为 - 220元/吨，环比下降30元；SF主力合约基差为 - 318元/吨，环比下降62元 [2] Upstream Situation - 南非矿Mn38块天津港价格为32元/吨度，硅石（98%西北）价格为210元/吨，环比均无变化 [2] - 内蒙古乌海二级冶金焦价格为1250元/吨，兰炭（中料神木）价格为880元/吨，环比均无变化 [2] - 锰矿港口库存为439.7万吨，环比增加8.3万吨 [2] Industry Situation - 锰硅企业开工率为40.24%，环比下降2.75个百分点；硅铁企业开工率为36.26%，环比增加0.18个百分点 [2] - 锰硅供应为201880吨，环比减少5845吨；硅铁供应为114100吨，环比增加900吨 [2] - 锰硅厂家库存为319500吨，环比增加5000吨；硅铁厂家库存为78690吨，环比增加6700吨 [2] - 锰硅全国钢厂库存为15.7天，环比下降0.23天；硅铁全国钢厂库存为15.67天，环比增加0.15天 [2] - 五大钢种锰硅需求为121113吨，环比减少3379吨；五大钢种硅铁需求为19813.7吨，环比减少461.6吨 [2] Downstream Situation - 247家钢厂高炉开工率为83.15%，环比增加1.42个百分点；247家钢厂高炉产能利用率为87.79%，环比下降0.8个百分点 [2] - 粗钢产量为7349.01万吨，环比减少387.84万吨 [2] Industry News - 中国10月CPI超出市场预期同比创下九个月高点，核心CPI同比创20个月最大；PPI环比录得去年11月以来首次上涨，同比跌幅创逾一年最小 [2] - 2024年底全国住房城乡建设工作会议明确将“有力有序推行现房销售”列为2025年重点工作之一，湖南岳阳平江县出台新规成为湖南首个全面推行现房销售的县城 [2] - 伊朗因气候干旱和供水设施老化面临缺水问题，首都德黑兰将实行夜间限水措施 [2] Viewpoint Summary - 锰硅方面，宏观上10月猪肉价格下降影响CPI，PPI同比降环比涨；基本面库存回升快、产量高位回落、成本端进口锰矿石港口库存增加、需求端铁水季节性回落；利润方面内蒙古和宁夏现货利润为负；市场10月主流钢招定价环比下降；技术上日K位于20和60均线之间，震荡运行 [2] - 硅铁方面，宏观上河北多地解除重污染天气应急响应；供需弱平衡、库存中性、兰炭企稳短期成本有支撑；利润方面内蒙古现货利润为负、宁夏现货利润为正；技术上日K位于20和60均线之间，震荡运行 [2]

Group 1: Investment Rating - No investment rating information is provided in the report. Group 2: Core View - The economic fundamentals continue to recover, and the implementation of broad fiscal policies requires a low - interest - rate environment. The market expects the central bank to purchase medium - and short - term bonds, which may lead to a decline in short - term interest rates and potentially drive long - term interest rates down. However, there is a potential suppression of long - term interest rates due to the recovery of risk appetite. It is recommended to try to go long on dips [2]. Group 3: Summary by Directory 1. Futures Market - **Futures Prices and Volumes**: T, TF, and TL main contract closing prices rose by 0.01%, 0.02%, and 0.22% respectively, while TS remained unchanged. T and TF trading volumes increased by 3915 and 4624 respectively, while TS and TL decreased by 1360 and 3686 respectively [2]. - **Futures Spreads**: Some spreads changed, such as the TL2512 - 2603 spread increasing by 0.01, while others like T2512 - 2603 decreased by 0.03 [2]. - **Futures Positions**: T, TL main contract positions increased, while TF and TS decreased. The net short positions of the top 20 in T, TF, TS, and TL all increased [2]. 2. CTD and Active Bonds - **CTD Bonds**: The net prices of some CTD bonds changed, with 220017.IB decreasing by 0.1562 and 250018.IB increasing by 0.0390 [2]. - **Active Bonds**: The yields of 1 - year, 3 - year, and 5 - year active bonds decreased by 0.25bp, 0.25bp, and 0.10bp respectively, while the 7 - year and 10 - year yields increased by 0.25bp and 0.50bp respectively [2]. 3. Interest Rates - **Short - term Interest Rates**: Silver - pledged overnight, 7 - day, and 14 - day rates, as well as Shibor overnight, 7 - day, and 14 - day rates all increased [2]. - **LPR Rates**: The 1 - year and 5 - year LPR rates remained unchanged [2]. 4. Open Market Operations - The central bank conducted reverse - repurchase operations. The issuance scale was 1199 billion yuan, and the expiration scale was 783 billion yuan, with an interest rate of 1.4% for 7 - day reverse - repurchase [2]. 5. Industry News - **Domestic**: In October, CPI increased both month - on - month and year - on - year, core CPI improved, PPI increased month - on - month for the first time this year, and the year - on - year decline narrowed. The total value of goods trade in the first 10 months increased by 3.6% year - on - year, and in October, exports decreased by 0.8% while imports increased by 1.4% [2]. - **Overseas**: The US Senate reached an agreement to end the government shutdown. The US 10 - month ISM services PMI reached an 8 - month high, but the manufacturing PMI was far below expectations. The ADP employment increase in October was 42,000, exceeding expectations, but the previous value was revised down significantly [2].

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the report Core Viewpoints - Zinc ore imports have increased as long - term agreement ores signed by smelters have arrived at ports, and smelters are stockpiling raw materials for winter production. However, domestic zinc ore processing fees have been reduced, sulfuric acid prices have fallen, smelter profits have shrunk significantly, and some smelters are in the red. Although new production capacities are being released, refined zinc output growth is limited. Overseas zinc supply is tight, the SHFE - LME ratio has dropped significantly, the export window has opened, and it is expected to gradually shift to net exports. On the demand side, the traditional "Golden September and Silver October" peak season effect is weak, the real estate sector is a drag, while the automotive and home appliance sectors show some bright spots due to policy support. Downstream demand recovery is insufficient, the market mainly purchases on - demand at low prices, the spot premium is low, but domestic inventories are decreasing, and LME inventories are also decreasing with a high spot premium. Technically, with increasing positions and rising prices, the bullish sentiment is strong. It is recommended to wait and see or hold a small long position [3]. Summary by Directory Futures Market - The closing price of the SHFE zinc main contract is 22,670 yuan/ton, down 50 yuan; the price difference between the December - January contracts of SHFE zinc is - 40 yuan/ton, down 5 yuan. The LME three - month zinc quote is 3,066.5 dollars/ton, up 15.5 dollars. The total SHFE zinc open interest is 228,100 lots, up 1,217 lots. The net position of the top 20 in SHFE zinc is 15,827 lots, up 1,263 lots. SHFE zinc warrants are 69,869 tons, up 601 tons. The SHFE inventory is 100,208 tons (weekly), down 3,208 tons, and the LME inventory is 34,900 tons, up 800 tons [3]. 现货市场 - The SMM 0 zinc spot price is 22,570 yuan/ton, down 70 yuan; the Yangtze River Non - ferrous Market 1 zinc spot price is 22,420 yuan/ton, down 270 yuan. The basis of the ZN main contract is - 100 yuan/ton, down 20 yuan. The LME zinc cash - 3 months spread is 152.26 dollars/ton, up 47.51 dollars. The arrival price of 50% zinc concentrate in Kunming is 18,330 yuan/ton, up 150 yuan, and the price of 85% - 86% crushed zinc in Shanghai is 16,000 yuan/ton, unchanged [3]. Upstream Situation - The WBMS zinc supply - demand balance is - 27,800 tons (monthly), down 5,700 tons; the ILZSG zinc supply - demand balance is 47,900 tons (monthly), up 17,700 tons. The ILZSG global zinc mine production is 1.0976 million tons (monthly), up 21,400 tons. Domestic refined zinc production is 651,000 tons (monthly), up 34,000 tons. Zinc ore imports are 505,400 tons (monthly), up 38,100 tons [3]. Industry Situation - Refined zinc imports are 22,677.51 tons (monthly), down 2,979.32 tons; refined zinc exports are 2,477.83 tons (monthly), up 2,166.92 tons. Zinc social inventories are 161,800 tons (weekly), down 400 tons [3]. Downstream Situation - The monthly output of galvanized sheets is 2.32 million tons, up 10,000 tons; the monthly sales of galvanized sheets are 2.28 million tons, down 90,000 tons. The monthly new housing construction area is 453.99 million square meters, up 55.9799 million square meters; the monthly housing completion area is 311.2888 million square meters, up 34.3534 million square meters. The monthly automobile production is 3.227 million vehicles, up 474,600 vehicles; the monthly air - conditioner production is 18.0948 million units, up 1.276 million units [3]. Option Market - The implied volatility of at - the - money zinc call options is 12.19% (daily), down 0.46 percentage points; the implied volatility of at - the - money zinc put options is 12.2% (daily), down 0.45 percentage points. The 20 - day historical volatility of at - the - money zinc options is 9.37% (daily), down 0.15 percentage points; the 60 - day historical volatility of at - the - money zinc options is 9.01% (daily), down 0.31 percentage points [3]. Industry News - In October, China's CPI rose 0.2% month - on - month and 0.2% year - on - year. The core CPI excluding food and energy prices rose 1.2% year - on - year, with the increase expanding for the 6th consecutive month. PPI turned from flat to a 0.1% month - on - month increase in October, the first increase this year, and the year - on - year decline continued to narrow. The US Bureau of Labor Statistics has postponed the release of the CPI report and suspended offline data collection. China's exports in October decreased 1.1% year - on - year in US dollar terms, while imports increased 1% year - on - year. China's narrow - sense passenger car retail sales in October decreased 0.8% year - on - year and 0.1% month - on - month, and new - energy vehicle retail sales increased 7.3% year - on - year and decreased 1.3% month - on - month [3].

Report Summary 1. Industry Investment Rating - No industry investment rating is provided in the report. 2. Core View - The tin market shows a situation of weak supply and demand, and short - term tin prices are expected to be strong at high levels. Technically, with increasing positions and rising prices, the bullish sentiment has improved. It is recommended to wait and see for now, and focus on the range of 282,000 - 290,000 yuan/ton [3]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Futures Market - The closing price of the main futures contract for Shanghai tin is 286,560 yuan/ton, up 3,050 yuan; the closing price of the December - January contract for Shanghai tin is - 260 yuan/ton, down 20 yuan. The LME 3 - month tin price is 35,820 US dollars/ton, up 60 US dollars. The main contract position of Shanghai tin is 34,257 lots, up 4,167 lots. The net position of the top 20 futures is - 671 lots, up 423 lots. The LME tin total inventory is 3,035 tons, up 60 tons. The SHFE inventory of tin is 5,992 tons, up 73 tons. The SHFE tin warrant is 5,694 tons, down 109 tons [3]. 3.2 Spot Market - The SMM 1 tin spot price is 285,800 yuan/ton, up 2,100 yuan; the Yangtze River Non - Ferrous Market 1 tin spot price is 286,370 yuan/ton, up 2,160 yuan. The basis of the main Shanghai tin contract is - 760 yuan/ton, down 950 yuan. The LME tin premium (0 - 3) is 30 US dollars/ton, unchanged. The average price of 40% tin concentrate is 271,700 yuan/ton, up 900 yuan, and the processing fee is 0.87 yuan/ton [3]. 3.3 Upstream Situation - The average price of 40% tin concentrate is 271,700 yuan/ton, up 900 yuan; the average price of 60% tin concentrate is 275,700 yuan/ton, up 900 yuan. The processing fees of 40% and 60% tin concentrates by Antaike remain unchanged at 10,500 yuan/ton and 6,500 yuan/ton respectively [3]. 3.4 Industry Situation - The monthly output of refined tin is 14,000 tons, down 1,600 tons; the monthly import volume of refined tin is 1,501.64 tons, up 63.06 tons [3]. 3.5 Downstream Situation - The price of 60A solder bar in Gejiu is 184,850 yuan/ton, up 1,020 yuan. The cumulative monthly output of tin - plated sheets (strips) is 110.93 million tons, up 14.48 million tons. The monthly export volume of tin - plated sheets is 197,600 tons, up 31,000 tons [3]. 3.6 Industry News - In China, in October, due to the continuous effectiveness of policies to expand domestic demand and the influence of the National Day and Mid - Autumn Festival holidays, the CPI rose 0.2% month - on - month and 0.2% year - on - year, and the core CPI rose 1.2% year - on - year with the increase for the 6th consecutive month. The PPI turned from flat to a 0.1% increase month - on - month, the first increase this year, and the year - on - year decline continued to narrow. The US Bureau of Labor Statistics postponed the release of the CPI report and suspended offline data collection. China's exports in October decreased 1.1% year - on - year in US dollars, and imports increased 1% year - on - year. The retail sales of narrow - sense passenger cars in China in October decreased 0.8% year - on - year and 0.1% month - on - month, while the retail sales of new energy vehicles increased 7.3% year - on - year and decreased 1.3% month - on - month [3]. 3.7 View Summary - The first batch of restarted mines in Wa State, Myanmar, are in the production ramp - up period. The import volume of tin ore from Myanmar is expected to increase steadily in the fourth quarter, but the increase is limited. The supply from Africa and Australia has declined unexpectedly, and Africa is about to enter the rainy season. The export of refined tin from Indonesia is planned to be accelerated in the fourth quarter. In the smelting sector, the shortage of raw materials in Yunnan is still severe, and the tin ore processing fee remains low; the scrap recycling system in Jiangxi is under pressure, and the operating rate is low, limiting the production of refined tin. In the demand side, the tin price has been oscillating recently. The downstream in the spot market mainly purchases at low prices, mostly for small - scale replenishment and rigid - demand purchases. The domestic inventory reduction is better than expected, and the LME inventory has increased slightly [3].

Report Summary 1. Industry Investment Rating - No industry investment rating is provided in the report. 2. Core View - The U.S. government shutdown is expected to cause the precious metals market to decline. The sharp rise in gold and silver prices today may be due to the short - term liquidity buffer provided by the temporary appropriation bill and the continuous weakening of the U.S. dollar index after breaking through the 100 mark, which boosts the monetary attribute of precious metals. The continuous weakening of the U.S. dollar is expected to boost the precious metals trend, but the optimistic expectation of the government shutdown may weaken the market's safe - haven demand and resist the upward movement of gold prices. Technically, there is a short - term callback risk, and specific price ranges for Shanghai gold and silver contracts are given [3]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Futures Market - **Prices**: The closing price of the Shanghai gold main contract is 935.98 yuan/gram, up 14.72; the closing price of the Shanghai silver main contract is 11719 yuan/kilogram, up 235 [3]. - **Positions**: The main contract positions of Shanghai gold are 136657 hands, down 3; those of Shanghai silver are 243217 hands, down 2300. The net positions of the top 20 in the Shanghai gold main contract are 110522 hands, up 5914; those of Shanghai silver are 101886 hands, down 3302 [3]. - **Warehouse Receipts**: The warehouse receipt quantity of gold is 89616 kilograms, unchanged; that of silver is 609978 kilograms, down 13074 [3]. 3.2现货市场 - **Prices**: The spot price of gold on the Shanghai Non - ferrous Metals Network is 928.1 yuan/gram, up 12.15; the spot price of silver is 11607 yuan/kilogram, up 161 [3]. - **Basis**: The basis of the Shanghai gold main contract is - 7.88 yuan/gram, down 2.57; that of the Shanghai silver main contract is - 112 yuan/kilogram, down 74 [3]. 3.3 Supply and Demand Situation - **ETF Holdings**: Gold ETF holdings are 1042.06 tons, up 1.71; silver ETF holdings are 15088.63 tons, down 25.4 [3]. - **CFTC Non - commercial Net Positions**: Gold CFTC non - commercial net positions are 266749 contracts, up 339; silver CTFC non - commercial net positions are 52276 contracts, up 738 [3]. - **Supply and Demand Quantities**: The total quarterly supply of gold is 1313.01 tons, up 54.84; the total annual supply of silver is 987.8 million troy ounces, down 21.4. The total quarterly demand for gold is 1313.01 tons, up 54.83; the global annual demand for silver is 1195 million ounces, down 47.4 [3]. 3.4 Option Market - **Historical Volatility**: The 20 - day historical volatility of gold is 31.98%, down 0.42; the 40 - day historical volatility is 26.76%, down 0.03 [3]. - **Implied Volatility**: The implied volatility of at - the - money call options for gold is 20.46%, down 1.3; that of at - the - money put options is 20.47%, down 1.27 [3]. 3.5 Industry News - The U.S. Senate passed a temporary appropriation bill to end the government shutdown until January 30, 2026. The government shutdown has a greater - than - expected impact on the U.S. economy, and the labor department cannot release the non - farm payroll report, which makes the Fed's December interest - rate cut decision difficult [3]. 3.6 Technical Analysis - The hourly RSI of London gold has continued to strengthen and broken through the 90 overbought range. The key resistance level for London gold is $4100, and the strong support level is $4000. The Shanghai gold 2512 contract should focus on the range of 890 - 950 yuan/gram; the Shanghai silver 2512 contract should focus on the range of 11000 - 11900 yuan/kilogram [3].

支撑。当前多空交织，短期暂且观望。 免责声明 | 项目类别 | 数据指标 | 最新 | 环比 数据指标 | 最新 | 环比 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 期货市场 | 郑棉主力合约收盘价(日,元/吨) | 13580 | 0 棉纱主力合约收盘价(日,元/吨) | 19865 | 15 | | | 棉花期货前20名净持仓(手) | -115201 | -1940 棉纱期货前20名净持仓(手) | -20 | 71 | | | 主力合约持仓量:棉花(日,手) | 570172 | -6107 主力合约持仓量:棉纱(日,手) | 24967 | -75 | | | 仓单数量:棉花(日,张) 中国棉花价格指数:CCIndex:3128B(日,元 | 3294 | 281 仓单数量:棉纱(日,张) | 19 | 13 | | 现货市场 | | 14844 | -15 中国纱线价格指数:纯棉普梳纱32支(日, | 20520 | 0 | | | /吨) 中国进口棉价格指数:FCIndexM:1%关税( | | 元/吨) -109 到港价:进口棉纱价格指数:纯棉普梳纱3 ...

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided Group 2: Core Viewpoints of the Report - As of November 6, the capacity utilization rate of domestic methanol - to - olefin plants was 90.60%, a month - on - month decrease of 0.37%. After the adjustment of the load of East China olefin enterprises, the overall olefin industry's start - up continued to decline last week. The MA2601 contract is expected to fluctuate in the range of 2080 - 2130 in the short term [2] Group 3: Summary by Related Catalogs 1. Futures Market - The closing price of the main methanol contract was 2101 yuan/ton, a decrease of 11 yuan/ton; the 1 - 5 spread was - 107 yuan/ton, a decrease of 6 yuan/ton. The main contract's open interest was 1405588 lots, an increase of 14769 lots. The net long position of the top 20 futures holders was - 259592 lots. The number of warehouse receipts was 10790, a decrease of 124 [2] 2. Spot Market - The price in Jiangsu Taicang was 2045 yuan/ton, a decrease of 35 yuan/ton; the price in Inner Mongolia was 1980 yuan/ton, a decrease of 20 yuan/ton. The East - West price difference was 100 yuan/ton, an increase of 35 yuan/ton. The basis of the main Zhengzhou methanol contract was - 56 yuan/ton, a decrease of 24 yuan/ton. The CFR price at the Chinese main port was 243 US dollars/ton, an increase of 2 US dollars/ton; the CFR price in Southeast Asia was 322 US dollars/ton, a decrease of 1 US dollar/ton. The FOB price in Rotterdam was 273 euros/ton, an increase of 1 euro/ton. The price difference between the Chinese main port and Southeast Asia was - 79 US dollars/ton, an increase of 3 US dollars/ton [2] 3. Upstream Situation - The price of NYMEX natural gas was 4.32 US dollars/million British thermal units, a decrease of 0.09 US dollars/million British thermal units [2] 4. Industry Situation - The inventory at East China ports was 102.15 tons, an increase of 2.42 tons; the inventory at South China ports was 49.56 tons, a decrease of 1.36 tons. The import profit of methanol was - 8.52 yuan/ton, a decrease of 9.01 yuan/ton. The monthly import volume was 142.69 tons, a decrease of 33.29 tons. The inventory of inland enterprises was 386400 tons, an increase of 10300 tons. The start - up rate of methanol enterprises was 87.79%, an increase of 1.06 percentage points [2] 5. Downstream Situation - The start - up rate of formaldehyde was 41.75%, an increase of 1.46 percentage points; the start - up rate of dimethyl ether was 5.79%, a decrease of 0.03 percentage points; the start - up rate of acetic acid was 69.61%, a decrease of 3.86 percentage points; the start - up rate of MTBE was 68.55%, an increase of 0.57 percentage points; the start - up rate of olefins was 89.98%, a decrease of 0.29 percentage points. The on - paper profit of methanol - to - olefin was - 623 yuan/ton, an increase of 49 yuan/ton [2] 6. Option Market - The 20 - day historical volatility of methanol was 20.43%, a decrease of 0.41 percentage points; the 40 - day historical volatility was 16.92%, an increase of 0.02 percentage points. The implied volatility of at - the - money call options was 20.13%, a decrease of 0.14 percentage points; the implied volatility of at - the - money put options was 20.12%, a decrease of 0.15 percentage points [2] 7. Industry News - As of November 5, the inventory of Chinese methanol sample production enterprises was 38.64 tons, an increase of 1.04 tons month - on - month, a rise of 2.75%. The orders to be delivered by sample enterprises were 22.11 tons, an increase of 0.55 tons month - on - month, a rise of 2.57%. The total inventory at Chinese methanol ports was 151.71 tons, an increase of 1.06 tons. The inventory at East China ports increased by 2.42 tons, while the inventory at South China ports decreased by 1.36 tons. Recently, the production capacity loss due to maintenance and production reduction of domestic methanol was less than the output of the restored production capacity, and the overall output increased [2] 8. Suggested Attention - Pay attention to the enterprise inventory and port inventory data from Longzhong on Wednesday [2]

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No investment rating is provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints - As of November 5, 2025, the apple cold - storage inventory in major producing areas was 698.42 million tons, 115.02 million tons lower than the same period last year. The current storage progress does not represent the final peak. - The storage capacity ratio in Shandong was 41.03%, a year - on - year decrease of 13.42%, and in Shaanxi it was 56.81%, a year - on - year decrease of 10.77%. The new - season late - maturing Fuji apples in Shandong showed a trend of reduced yield and quality. - Shaanxi's storage is nearing completion, and the storage volume is expected to reach its peak next week. - The current late - Fuji inventory is at a relatively low level in recent years, which is reflected in the market, causing increased price volatility. It is recommended to wait and see in the short term. [2] 3. Summary by Directory Futures Market - The closing price of the main apple futures contract was 9,159 yuan/ton, and the position of the main contract was 142,155 lots, an increase of 11,488 lots. - The net long position of the top 20 futures traders was 6,233 lots, a decrease of 1,097 lots. [2] Spot Market - The spot price of apples in Gansu Jingning (paper - bagged, above 75) was 5 yuan/jin, unchanged; in Shandong Yiyuan (paper - bagged, above 75) it was 2.3 yuan/jin, unchanged; in Shaanxi Luochuan (paper - bagged, above 70 semi - commercial) it was 4.1 yuan/jin, unchanged; in Shandong Yantai Qixia (paper - bagged, above 80 first - grade) it was 3.6 yuan/jin, a decrease of 0.1 yuan/jin. [2] Upstream Situation - The national apple output was 5,128.51 million tons, an increase of 168.34 million tons. - The average wholesale price of apples was 9.46 yuan/kg, a decrease of 0.07 yuan/kg; the average wholesale price of Fuji apples was 9.04 yuan/kg, a decrease of 0.11 yuan/kg. - The total cold - storage inventory of national apples was 698.42 million tons. The storage capacity ratio in Shandong was 0.57, and in Shaanxi it was 0.41. The monthly export volume of apples was 70,000 tons. [2] Industry Situation - The monthly export value of apples was 69.1798 million US dollars, an increase of 24.86845 million US dollars; the monthly import value of fresh and dried fruits and nuts was not provided with a change value. - The profit of first - and second - grade paper - bagged 80 apple storage merchants was 0 yuan/jin. - The average wholesale price of tangerines was 6.08 yuan/kg, a decrease of 0.66 yuan/kg; the wholesale price of bananas was 5.48 yuan/kg, an increase of 0.02 yuan/kg. [2] Downstream Situation - The wholesale price of watermelons was 5.18 yuan/kg. - The average daily early - morning arrival of trucks at the Jiangmen wholesale market in Guangdong was 12.2 vehicles, a decrease of 4 vehicles; at the Xiaqiao wholesale market in Guangdong, it was 17 vehicles, a decrease of 3.6 vehicles; at the Chalong wholesale market in Guangdong, it was 24 vehicles, a decrease of 3.6 vehicles. [2] Option Market - The implied volatility of at - the - money call options for apples was 24.03%, a decrease of 0.1%; the implied volatility of at - the - money put options for apples was 24.03%, a decrease of 0.1%. [2] Industry News - In the Gansu production area, cold - storage apple trading was active, with merchants from Shandong and Shaanxi actively purchasing. The price of stored Fuji apples remained stable and firm. - In the Shaanxi production area, ground trading was ending, and some inventory holders were supplying the market, with a stable market. - In the Yuncheng production area of Shanxi, the trading of paper - laminated apples heated up, with more inquiring and purchasing merchants, and prices showed a firm trend. - In the Shandong production area, fruit farmers were still storing apples, the overall quality of ground supplies declined slightly, small - fruit trading was active, and prices rose significantly. [2]

Report Summary 1) Report Industry Investment Rating - Short - term bearish [2] 2) Core View - New - season red dates in Xinjiang's main production areas: Acquisition in areas like Hotan has ended, while the picking progress in areas such as Alar and Aksu is 30% - 40%. The enthusiasm of buyers has weakened. As of November 6, 2025, the physical inventory of 36 sample points this week was 9,541 tons, an increase of 193 tons from last week, a 2.06% week - on - week increase and a 131.35% year - on - year increase. Buyers are more interested in old goods with high cost - performance and less enthusiastic about purchasing new - season raw materials. In the sales areas, prices have slightly decreased, and downstream customers are mostly observing and purchasing as needed. [2] 3) Summary by Directory Futures Market - The closing price of the main futures contract for red dates was 9,585 yuan/ton, a decrease of 5 yuan; the main contract's open interest was 150,227 lots, a decrease of 2,353 lots; the net long position of the top 20 futures holders was - 5,456 lots, an increase of 5,826 lots; the number of warehouse receipts was 0, with no change; the total number of valid warehouse receipt forecasts was 0, with no change. [2] 现货市场 - The price of Kashgar red date bulk goods was 7.35 yuan/kg, with no change; the wholesale price of first - grade grey dates in Hebei was 4.5 yuan/jin, with no change; the price of Alar red date bulk goods was 6.65 yuan/kg, a decrease of 0.25 yuan; the wholesale price of first - grade grey dates in Henan was 4.6 yuan/jin, a decrease of 0.05 yuan; the price of Aksu red date bulk goods was 6.6 yuan/kg, with no change; the price of special - grade red dates in Henan was 10.3 yuan/kg, with no change; the price of special - grade red dates in Hebei was 10.09 yuan/kg, a decrease of 0.09 yuan; the price of special - grade red dates in Guangdong was 11.5 yuan/kg, with no change; the price of first - grade red dates in Guangdong was 10.3 yuan/kg, a decrease of 0.2 yuan. [2] Upstream Market - The annual red date production was 6.069 million tons, an increase of 3.187 million tons; the planting area was 1.993 million hectares, a decrease of 41,000 hectares. [2] Industry Situation - The national red date inventory was 9,541 tons this week, an increase of 193 tons; the monthly red date export volume was 2,283,671 kg, a decrease of 81,222 kg; the cumulative monthly red date export volume was 23,548,402 kg, an increase of 2,283,671 kg. [2] Downstream Situation - The cumulative quarterly sales volume of red dates by Hao Xiang Ni was 36,480.43 tons, and the cumulative quarterly production year - on - year growth rate was 1.47%, a decrease of 34.59 percentage points. [2] Industry News - In Hebei's Cui'erzhuang market, 10 trucks of red dates arrived. The reference price for special - grade was 9.80 - 10.50 yuan/kg, first - grade was 8.80 yuan/kg, and second - grade was 7.60 - 7.80 yuan/kg. Old goods were more popular than new goods, and the trading volume was small. In Guangdong's Ruyifang market, 6 trucks of red dates arrived. The market supply was sufficient. The price of new goods was higher, and the market acceptance was low. Prices were weakly stable, and buyers purchased as needed. [2]