1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The total demand for industrial silicon from the three major downstream industries remains flat. The price of industrial silicon dropped slightly after failing to break through 9,000 yuan, and it is expected to have some further downward momentum. It is recommended to consider mid - to long - term long positions if the price later falls below 8,000 yuan [2] 3. Summary by Related Catalogs 3.1 Futures Market - The closing price of the main contract is 8,840 yuan/ton, down 160 yuan; the main contract position is 278,860 lots, up 6,917 lots; the net position of the top 20 is - 70,979 lots, down 3,564 lots; the Guangzhou Futures Exchange warehouse receipt is 50,340 lots, down 135 lots; the price difference between September and October industrial silicon is - 30 yuan, down 15 yuan [2] 3.2 Spot Market - The average price of oxygen - passing 553 silicon is 9,400 yuan/ton, unchanged; the average price of 421 silicon is 9,750 yuan/ton, unchanged; the Si main contract basis is 560 yuan/ton, up 160 yuan; the DMC spot price is 12,000 yuan/ton, down 300 yuan [2] 3.3 Upstream Situation - The average price of silica is 410 yuan/ton, unchanged; the average price of petroleum coke is 1,810 yuan/ton, unchanged; the average price of clean coal is 1,850 yuan/ton, unchanged; the average price of wood chips is 490 yuan/ton, unchanged; the ex - factory price of graphite electrode (400mm) is 12,250 yuan/ton, unchanged [2] 3.4 Industry Situation - Industrial silicon monthly output is 305,200 tons, up 5,500 tons; industrial silicon social inventory is 552,000 tons, up 10,000 tons; industrial silicon monthly import volume is 2,211.36 tons, up 71.51 tons; industrial silicon monthly export volume is 52,919.65 tons, down 12,197.89 tons [2] 3.5 Downstream Situation - The weekly output of organic silicon DMC is 44,900 tons, up 700 tons; the average price of aluminum alloy ADC12 in the Yangtze River spot is 20,200 yuan/ton, unchanged; the weekly average price of photovoltaic - grade polysilicon is 4.94 US dollars/kilogram, unchanged; the overseas market price of photovoltaic - grade polysilicon is 15.75 US dollars/kilogram, unchanged; the monthly export volume of unforged aluminum alloy is 25,770.18 tons; the weekly operating rate of organic silicon DMC is 74.84%, up 4.76 percentage points; the monthly output of aluminum alloy is 1.669 million tons, up 24,000 tons; the monthly export volume of aluminum alloy is 20,187.85 tons, down 337.93 tons [2] 3.6 Industry News - The China Photovoltaic Industry Association predicted that by 2025, the cumulative decommissioned photovoltaic modules in the country will reach about 9GW, and the decommissioned modules in that year will exceed 2.7GW, equivalent to about 210,000 - 270,000 tons of waste. The Photovoltaic Recycling Industry Development Cooperation Center of the China Green Supply Chain Alliance Photovoltaic Special Committee predicted that by 2030, the cumulative decommissioned scale of national photovoltaic modules will reach 1 million tons, and 12 million tons by 2040 [2] 3.7 Supply - demand Analysis - On the supply side, in the southwest region, with the deepening of the wet season, the electricity price advantage is more prominent, stimulating the resumption of production in silicon plants. The number of newly opened furnaces in Sichuan, Yunnan and other places continues to increase, and the output in the southwest region is expected to increase week - on - week. In Xinjiang, although some large factories maintain a stable production rhythm, some small and medium - sized silicon plants have low enthusiasm for resuming production due to thin profits affected by the previous low prices, and the overall output remains relatively stable. On the demand side, the downstream of industrial silicon is mainly concentrated in the organic silicon, polysilicon and aluminum alloy fields. The demand in the organic silicon market has recovered and increased, and the operating rate has increased slightly, driving the demand for industrial silicon to some extent. The operating rate of the polysilicon industry remains at a high level. With the continuous favorable policies for the photovoltaic industry, the downstream installation demand is still expected, providing strong rigid support for industrial silicon. However, the price of polysilicon has shown a slight downward trend recently, and enterprises under cost pressure have a demand to lower the purchase price of industrial silicon. In the aluminum alloy field, enterprises replenish inventory as needed, inventory continues to grow, prices decline, and it is in a passive inventory reduction stage, with little impetus to the demand for industrial silicon [2]

Report Overview - Report Date: August 12, 2025 [1] - Report Title: Carbonate Lithium Industry Daily Report 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided 2. Report's Core View - The lithium carbonate market shows a situation where supply is slightly increasing and demand is gradually recovering, with large price fluctuations and an improving industry outlook. The option market sentiment is bullish, and the implied volatility has slightly increased. Technically, the 60 - minute MACD shows that the double - line is above the 0 - axis with a shrinking red column. The operation suggestion is to conduct light - position oscillating trading and control risks [2]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Futures Market - The closing price of the main contract is 82,520 yuan/ton, up 1,520 yuan; the net position of the top 20 is - 114,760 lots, up 13,356 lots; the position of the main contract is 356,998 lots, up 39,322 lots; the spread between near and far - month contracts is 3,620 yuan/ton, up 5,620 yuan; the Guangzhou Futures Exchange warehouse receipt is 19,389 lots/ton, up 560 lots [2]. 3.2 Spot Market - The average price of battery - grade lithium carbonate is 78,000 yuan/ton, up 3,500 yuan; the average price of industrial - grade lithium carbonate is 72,300 yuan/ton, up 2,500 yuan; the basis of the Li₂CO₃ main contract is - 4,520 yuan/ton, up 1,980 yuan [2]. 3.3 Upstream Situation - The average price of spodumene concentrate (6% CIF China) is 788 US dollars/ton, unchanged; the average price of amblygonite is 7,250 yuan/ton, up 600 yuan; the price of lepidolite (2 - 2.5%) is 2,501 yuan/ton, up 53 yuan [2]. 3.4 Industry Situation - The monthly output of lithium carbonate is 44,100 tons, up 2,000 tons; the monthly import volume is 17,697.62 tons, down 3,448.16 tons; the monthly export volume is 429.65 tons, up 142.92 tons; the monthly output of power batteries is 133,800 MWh, up 4,600 MWh; the monthly operating rate of lithium carbonate enterprises is 52%, up 5%; the price of lithium manganate is 30,000 yuan/ton, unchanged; the price of lithium hexafluorophosphate is 51,500 yuan/ton, unchanged; the price of ternary material (811 type) in China is 147,000 yuan/ton, up 2,000 yuan; the price of ternary material (622 power type) in China is 123,000 yuan/ton, up 2,000 yuan [2]. 3.5 Downstream and Application Situation - The price of ternary material (523 single - crystal type) in China is 129,000 yuan/ton, up 3,000 yuan; the monthly operating rate of ternary cathode materials is 51%, down 4%; the price of lithium iron phosphate is 32,700 yuan/ton, unchanged; the monthly operating rate of lithium iron phosphate cathodes is 52%, up 3%; the monthly output of new energy vehicles is 1,243,000 vehicles, down 25,000 vehicles; the monthly sales volume is 1,262,000 vehicles, down 67,000 vehicles; the cumulative sales penetration rate of new energy vehicles is 44.99%, up 0.68%; the cumulative sales volume of new energy vehicles is 8,220,000 vehicles, up 2,286,000 vehicles; the monthly export volume of new energy vehicles is 225,000 vehicles, up 20,000 vehicles; the cumulative export volume of new energy vehicles is 1.308 million vehicles, up 600,000 vehicles; the 20 - day average volatility of the target is 68.6%, up 0.01%; the 40 - day average volatility of the target is 50.42%, up 0.05% [2]. 3.6 Option Situation - The total subscription position is 158,991 lots, up 39,939 lots; the total put position is 71,348 lots, up 18,730 lots; the total position put - call ratio is 44.88%, up 0.678%; the at - the - money IV implied volatility is up 0.0299% [2]. 3.7 Industry News - The State Administration for Market Regulation issued the national standard "Technical Requirements for Transportation Safety and Multimodal Transport of Power Lithium Batteries", which will be implemented on February 1, 2026. In July, China's automobile production and sales were 2.591 million and 2.593 million vehicles respectively, with year - on - year increases of 13.3% and 14.7%. New energy vehicle production and sales were 1.243 million and 1.262 million vehicles respectively, with year - on - year increases of 26.3% and 27.4%. The export of new energy vehicles was 225,000 vehicles, a year - on - year increase of 1.2 times. From January to July, the cumulative output of power and other batteries in China was 831.1 GWh, a year - on - year increase of 57.5%, and the sales volume was 786.2 GWh, a year - on - year increase of 60.6% [2].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content 2. Core View of the Report - On Tuesday, the red date 2601 contract closed down 0.9%. The physical inventory of 36 red date sample points in the 32nd week was 9,784 tons, a decrease of 255 tons from the previous week, a 2.54% week - on - week decrease and a 72.62% year - on - year increase. The market's purchasing and sales atmosphere improved, and the de - stocking process was good. The new crop is in the critical fruit - setting period, and the market focuses on the weather in the production areas. The highest temperature in Xinjiang will be high in the next few days. Preliminary estimates suggest that the new - season output will be 560,000 - 620,000 tons, a 5 - 10% decrease compared to the normal year of 2022 and a 20 - 25% decrease compared to 2024, but the reduction is less than that in 2023. Overall, the warming purchasing and sales atmosphere and the expected reduction in new - season output support the short - term strong and volatile trend of red date futures prices. Technically, the red date 2601 contract ended its four - day consecutive increase but remained above the moving average system. It is recommended to go long on dips and control risks [2]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Futures Market - The closing price of the red date futures main contract was 11,550 yuan/ton, down 135 yuan; the main contract's open interest was 145,796 lots, down 7,763 lots. The net long position of the top 20 futures holders was - 18,480 lots, up 1,350 lots; the number of warehouse receipts was 9,214, unchanged; the total valid warehouse receipt forecasts were 1,809 [2]. 现货市场 - The unified - grade red date prices in Kashgar, Alar, and Aksu were 6 yuan/kg, 5.2 yuan/kg, and 4.8 yuan/kg respectively, all unchanged. The wholesale prices of first - grade grey dates in Hebei and Henan were 4.75 yuan/jin and 4.6 yuan/jin respectively, both up 0.1 yuan/jin. The prices of special - grade red dates in Henan, Hebei, and Guangdong were 10.3 yuan/kg, 10.41 yuan/kg, and 11.5 yuan/kg respectively, up 0.3 yuan/kg, 0.19 yuan/kg, and 0.2 yuan/kg respectively. The first - grade red date price in Guangdong was 10.5 yuan/kg, up 0.3 yuan/kg [2]. Upstream Market - The annual red date output was 6.069 million tons, an increase of 3.187 million tons; the planting area was 1.993 million hectares, a decrease of 41,000 hectares [2]. Industry Situation - The national red date inventory was 9,784 tons, a decrease of 255 tons; the monthly export volume was 1,765,107 kg, a decrease of 464,120 kg; the cumulative monthly export volume was 17,115,674 kg [2]. Downstream Situation - The wholesale price of red dates in the Hexi Agricultural and Sideline Products Market in Taiyuan, Shanxi was 20 yuan/kg, down 8 yuan. The cumulative sales volume of red dates of Hao Xiang Ni was 36,480.43 tons, a decrease of 2,981.06 tons; the cumulative year - on - year production increase was 1.47%, and the cumulative year - on - year sales increase was - 34.59% [2]. Industry News - On August 12, the temperature in Aksu was between 18 - 34°C. Jujube farmers were actively engaged in field management. According to the on - the - spot research in mid - July, the mainstream per - mu yield was 700 - 800 kg. Attention should be paid to the impact of weather changes on yield and quality [2].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - For soda ash, supply is expected to remain ample, demand will continue to decline, and prices will face continuous pressure. It is advisable to consider buying put options for the soda ash main contract. [2] - For glass, the market may start the restocking expectation as it approaches the peak season. It is recommended to lay out long positions at low prices for the main contract, while being aware of operational risks. [2] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Futures Market - Soda ash main contract closing price is 1409 yuan/ton (up 64 yuan), glass main contract closing price is 1073 yuan/ton (up 5 yuan). [2] - Soda ash main contract position is 1125754 lots (up 57378 lots), glass main contract position is 874297 lots (down 142973 lots). [2] - Soda ash top 20 net position is -365346 (down 3429), glass top 20 net position is -249970 (up 18375). [2] - Soda ash exchange warehouse receipts are 7715 tons (unchanged), glass exchange warehouse receipts are 3543 tons (up 25 tons). [2] - Soda ash September - January contract spread is -94 (down 11), glass September - January contract spread is -151 (down 18). [2] - Soda ash basis is -110 yuan/ton (down 35 yuan), glass basis is 15 yuan/ton (down 17 yuan). [2] 3.2 Spot Market - North China heavy soda ash is 1235 yuan/ton (unchanged), Central China heavy soda ash is 1325 yuan/ton (unchanged). [2] - East China light soda ash is 1270 yuan/ton (down 5 yuan), Central China light soda ash is 1220 yuan/ton (down 10 yuan). [2] - Shahe glass sheets are 1100 yuan/ton (unchanged), Central China glass sheets are 1150 yuan/ton (down 20 yuan). [2] 3.3 Industry Situation - Soda ash plant operating rate is 85.41% (up 5.14%), float glass enterprise operating rate is 73% (down 2%). [2] - Glass in - production capacity is 15.96 million tons/year (unchanged), glass in - production line number is 223 (up 1). [2] - Soda ash enterprise inventory is 187.62 million tons (up 1.11 million tons), glass enterprise inventory is 6184.7 million heavy boxes (up 234.8 million heavy boxes). [2] 3.4 Downstream Situation - Cumulative value of new real estate construction area is 30364.32 million square meters (up 7180.71 million square meters), cumulative value of real estate completion area is 22566.61 million square meters (up 4181.47 million square meters). [2] 3.5 Industry News - The Ministry of Finance and the State Taxation Administration solicit public opinions on the "Implementation Regulations of the Value - Added Tax Law of the People's Republic of China (Draft for Comment)" [2] - The Central Settlement Company simplifies account - opening materials for overseas central bank - type institutions [2] - The Ministry of Foreign Affairs responds to whether China has received the US's final decision on extending the tariff suspension period [2] - Three departments issue the "New Round of Rural Road Improvement Action Plan" [2] - The national standard "Technical Requirements for Power Lithium - Battery Transportation Safety and Multimodal Transport" will be implemented on February 1, 2026 [2] - Since the start of the summer travel season, the national railway has cumulatively sent 599 million passengers, a year - on - year increase of 3.9% [2] - In July, automobile production and sales decreased by 7.3% and 10.7% month - on - month respectively, and increased by 13.3% and 14.7% year - on - year respectively [2] 3.6 Viewpoint Summary - Soda ash: Supply is ample, demand declines, prices are under pressure. It is recommended to buy put options for the main contract [2] - Glass: Supply increases slightly, demand is affected by the real estate situation. It is recommended to lay out long positions at low prices for the main contract [2]

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No specific industry investment rating is provided in the report. 2. Core View of the Report Supply is increasing while demand is weakening, so the polysilicon market is expected to continue adjusting this week. Although prices are supported by costs and policies, the upside is limited by downstream acceptance, and prices are likely to show a volatile trend. Operational advice is to wait and see or arrange put options [2]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs 3.1 Market Data - **Futures Market**: The closing price of the main polysilicon contract was 51,800 yuan/ton, down 1,185 yuan; the open interest of the main contract was 136,055 lots, down 3,684 lots; the 11 - 12 spread of polysilicon was -2,905 yuan, up 315 yuan; the polysilicon - industrial silicon spread was 42,960 yuan/ton, down 1,025 yuan [2]. - **Spot Market**: The spot price of polysilicon was 47,000 yuan/ton, unchanged; the basis of polysilicon was -5,985 yuan/ton, down 2,195 yuan; the weekly average price of photovoltaic - grade polysilicon was 4.94 US dollars/kg, unchanged. The average prices of cauliflower - type, dense - type, and re - feed polysilicon were 30 yuan/kg, 36 yuan/kg, and 34.8 yuan/kg respectively, all unchanged [2]. - **Upstream Situation**: The closing price of the main industrial silicon contract was 8,840 yuan/ton, down 160 yuan; the spot price of industrial silicon was 9,400 yuan/ton, unchanged. The monthly export volume of industrial silicon was 52,919.65 tons, down 12,197.89 tons; the monthly import volume was 2,211.36 tons, up 71.51 tons. The monthly output of industrial silicon was 305,200 tons, up 5,500 tons; the total social inventory was 552,000 tons, up 10,000 tons [2]. - **Industry Situation**: The monthly output of polysilicon was 95,000 tons, down 1,000 tons; the monthly import volume was 1,113 tons, up 320 tons. The weekly spot price of imported polysilicon in China was 6.3 US dollars/kg, up 0.01 US dollars; the monthly average import price was 2,190 US dollars/ton, down 140 US dollars [2]. - **Downstream Situation**: The monthly output of solar cells was 67,386,000 kilowatts, down 3,183,000 kilowatts; the average price of solar cells was 0.82 RMB/W, up 0.01 RMB. The monthly export volume of photovoltaic modules was 88,975,860 pieces, down 14,424,120 pieces; the monthly import volume was 11,095,900 pieces, down 1,002,590 pieces; the monthly average import price was 0.31 US dollars/piece, down 0.01 US dollars. The weekly photovoltaic industry composite price index (SPI) for polysilicon was 27.86, unchanged [2]. 3.2 Industry News - The China Photovoltaic Industry Association predicted that by 2025, the cumulative decommissioned photovoltaic modules in the country will reach about 9GW, and the decommissioned modules in that year will exceed 2.7GW, equivalent to 210,000 - 270,000 tons of waste. The Photovoltaic Recycling Industry Development Cooperation Center of the Photovoltaic Special Committee of the China Green Supply Chain Alliance predicted that by 2030, the cumulative decommissioned scale of photovoltaic modules in the country will reach 1 million tons, and by 2040, it will reach 12 million tons [2]. - The China Photovoltaic Industry Association is soliciting opinions on the "Draft Amendment to the Price Law (Exposure Draft)". In terms of polysilicon, from the supply side, some polysilicon enterprises that previously reduced or suspended production due to losses or equipment maintenance are more motivated to resume production as the market sentiment improves and the policy - end "anti - involution" measures are promoted. The resumption plans of individual enterprises in Yunnan, Xinjiang, and Qinghai are gradually being implemented [2]. 3.3 Key Factors Affecting the Market - **Supply Side**: Some polysilicon enterprises are resuming production, increasing supply [2]. - **Demand Side**: Downstream battery enterprises have different acceptance levels for silicon wafer price increases. Some small and medium - sized battery enterprises have weak procurement willingness due to cost pressure, which limits the further growth of demand in the silicon wafer segment. The overall operating rate of the silicon wafer industry has decreased slightly, weakening the demand support for polysilicon. Some mainstream - specification component prices have been lowered, indicating that the terminal market has low acceptance of high - price components. Component enterprises are more cautious in purchasing upstream polysilicon to control costs, resulting in a bottleneck in the growth of polysilicon demand [2].

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No investment rating is provided in the report. 2. Core View of the Report Affected by the rise in the grain market and the decline in the good - quality rate of US cotton, US cotton rose slightly. Waiting for the USDA monthly supply - demand report. The joint statement of the China - US Stockholm economic and trade talks indicates that both sides have suspended the implementation of mutual 24% tariffs for another 90 days. Domestically, cotton is in a de - stocking state, and the supply is tight before the new cotton is on the market, with a firm basis. On the demand side, the off - season consumption characteristics of the textile industry are evident. Mainland textile enterprises have no profit, and the overall operating rate continues to decline. Enterprises' procurement of raw materials is mainly for rigid demand. In terms of new crops, China's total cotton planting area increased in 2025. High temperatures in Xinjiang in the next few days require attention to the impact of weather on new crop growth. Overall, although the current tight supply supports cotton prices, weak downstream demand and market expectations for quotas limit the upside space. It is expected to fluctuate in the short term. It is recommended to wait and see for now [2]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs 3.1. Futures Market - Zhengzhou cotton's main contract closing price was 13,980 yuan/ton, up 300 yuan; cotton yarn's main contract closing price was 20,015 yuan/ton, up 225 yuan. - The net position of the top 20 in cotton futures was - 30,886 hands, a decrease of 6,095 hands; the net position of the top 20 in cotton yarn futures was - 175 hands, a decrease of 272 hands. - The main contract position of cotton was 412,957 hands, an increase of 166,751 hands; the main contract position of cotton yarn was 18,627 hands, an increase of 745 hands. - The cotton warehouse receipt quantity was 8,087 sheets, a decrease of 85 sheets; the cotton yarn warehouse receipt quantity was 74 sheets, a decrease of 1 sheet [2]. 3.2. Spot Market - The China Cotton Price Index (CCIndex:3128B) was 15,177 yuan/ton, up 16 yuan; the China Yarn Price Index for pure - cotton carded yarn 32 - count was 20,620 yuan/ton, unchanged. - The China Imported Cotton Price Index (FCIndexM:1% tariff) was 13,402 yuan/ton, up 17 yuan; the China Imported Cotton Price Index (FCIndexM:sliding - scale duty) was 14,226 yuan/ton, up 6 yuan. - The arrival price of the imported cotton yarn price index for pure - cotton carded yarn 32 - count was 22,149 yuan/ton, up 19 yuan; the arrival price of the imported cotton yarn price index for pure - cotton combed yarn 32 - count was 24,030 yuan/ton, up 21 yuan [2]. 3.3. Upstream Situation - The national cotton sown area was 2,838.3 thousand hectares, an increase of 48.3 thousand hectares; the national cotton output was 6.16 million tons, an increase of 0.54 million tons [2]. 3.4. Industry Situation - The cotton - yarn price difference was 5,443 yuan/ton, a decrease of 16 yuan. - The industrial inventory of cotton nationwide was 850,000 tons, an increase of 24,000 tons. - The monthly import volume of cotton was 30,000 tons, a decrease of 10,000 tons; the monthly import volume of cotton yarn was 110,000 tons, an increase of 10,000 tons. - The profit of imported cotton was 941 yuan/ton, a decrease of 41 yuan. - The commercial inventory of cotton nationwide was 2.8298 million tons, a decrease of 0.6289 million tons [2]. 3.5. Downstream Situation - The yarn inventory days were 23.86 days, an increase of 1.52 days; the inventory days of grey cloth were 35.46 days, an increase of 2.57 days. - The monthly cloth output was 2.779 billion meters, an increase of 0.109 billion meters; the monthly yarn output was 2.065 million tons, an increase of 0.114 million tons. - The monthly export value of clothing and clothing accessories was 1.5266714 billion US dollars, an increase of 0.1688977 billion US dollars; the monthly export value of textile yarns, fabrics and products was 1.2048207 billion US dollars, a decrease of 0.0583566 billion US dollars [2]. 3.6. Option Market - The implied volatility of cotton at - the - money call options was 13.48%, an increase of 4.81 percentage points; the implied volatility of cotton at - the - money put options was 13.48%, an increase of 4.81 percentage points. - The 20 - day historical volatility of cotton was 11.24%, an increase of 0.08 percentage points; the 60 - day historical volatility of cotton was 7.79%, an increase of 0.01 percentage points [2]. 3.7. Industry News - The joint statement of the China - US Stockholm economic and trade talks indicates that both sides have suspended the implementation of mutual 24% tariffs for another 90 days. - As of the week ending August 10, 2025, the good - quality rate of US cotton was 53%, down from 55% the previous week and up from 46% in the same period last year. - On Monday, the ICE cotton December contract rose 0.3%. On Tuesday, the cotton 2601 contract rose 0.79%, and the cotton yarn 2511 contract rose 1.52% [2].

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information about the industry investment rating is provided in the report. 2. Core View The Shanghai copper main contract shows a volatile trend, with decreasing positions, spot premium, and strengthening basis. Fundamentally, on the mining side, the copper concentrate TC fee has improved but remains in the negative range, and the domestic port inventory has slightly increased. The tight supply of copper ore still provides cost support for copper prices. On the supply side, due to the increase in newly commissioned production capacity and the high price of by - product sulfuric acid making up for smelting losses, smelters are currently producing actively. However, considering the supply of copper concentrates, the production growth rate may gradually slow down. On the demand side, the impact of the consumption off - season is expected to continue, and the large - scale taxation of copper products by the US will suppress export demand. Therefore, downstream consumption demand may slow down, and the total inventory will remain at a medium - low level. Overall, the fundamentals of Shanghai copper may be in a situation where the supply growth rate gradually slows down and the demand is slightly weak due to seasonal changes and trade tariffs. In the options market, the call - put ratio of at - the - money options is 1.24, with a month - on - month increase of 0.0605, indicating a bullish sentiment in the options market, and the implied volatility has slightly decreased. Technically, for the 60 - minute MACD, the double lines are above the 0 - axis, and green bars have just appeared. The operation suggestion is to conduct short - term long trading at low prices with a light position, and pay attention to controlling the rhythm and trading risks [2]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs 3.1 Futures Market - The closing price of the Shanghai copper futures main contract is 79,020 yuan/ton, unchanged; the LME 3 - month copper price is 9,779 dollars/ton, up 47.50 dollars [2]. - The spread between the main contract and the next - month contract is - 60 yuan/ton, down 30 yuan; the position of the main contract of Shanghai copper is 156,044 hands, down 4,840 hands [2]. - The position of the top 20 futures holders of Shanghai copper is 4,902 hands, up 5,608 hands; the LME copper inventory is 155,700 tons, down 150 tons [2]. - The inventory of cathode copper in the Shanghai Futures Exchange is 81,933 tons (weekly), up 9,390 tons; the LME copper cancelled warrants are 11,975 tons, up 900 tons [2]. - The warehouse receipts of cathode copper in the Shanghai Futures Exchange are 26,296 tons, down 2,856 tons [2]. 3.2现货市场 - The price of SMM 1 copper spot is 79,150 yuan/ton, up 620 yuan; the price of 1 copper spot in the Yangtze River Non - ferrous Metals Market is 79,095 yuan/ton, up 10 yuan [2]. - The CIF (bill of lading) price of Shanghai electrolytic copper is 55 dollars/ton, unchanged; the average premium of Yangshan copper is 43.50 dollars/ton, up 3.50 dollars [2]. - The basis of the CU main contract is 130 yuan/ton, up 620 yuan; the LME copper premium (0 - 3) is - 83.25 dollars/ton, down 13.70 dollars [2]. - The import volume of copper ore and concentrates is 234.97 million tons (monthly), down 4.58 million tons; the rough smelting fee (TC) of domestic copper smelters is - 38.06 dollars/kiloton (weekly), up 4.03 dollars [2]. 3.3 Upstream Situation - The price of copper concentrates in Jiangxi is 68,850 yuan/metal ton, up 40 yuan; the price of copper concentrates in Yunnan is 69,550 yuan/metal ton, up 40 yuan [2]. - The processing fee for crude copper in the south is 900 yuan/ton (weekly), unchanged; the processing fee for crude copper in the north is 750 yuan/ton (weekly), unchanged [2]. - The output of refined copper is 130.20 million tons (monthly), up 4.80 million tons; the import volume of unwrought copper and copper products is 480,000 tons (monthly), up 20,000 tons [2]. 3.4产业情况 - The social inventory of copper is 41.82 million tons (weekly), up 0.43 million tons; the price of 1 bright copper wire scrap in Shanghai is 0 yuan/ton, down 54,990 yuan [2]. - The ex - factory price of 98% sulfuric acid of Jiangxi Copper is 640 yuan/ton, unchanged; the price of 2 copper scrap (94 - 96%) in Shanghai is 67,900 yuan/ton, up 400 yuan [2]. 3.5下游及应用 - The output of copper products is 221.45 million tons (monthly), up 11.85 million tons; the cumulative value of investment in power grid infrastructure construction is 2,911 billion yuan (monthly), up 871.14 billion yuan [2]. - The cumulative value of real estate development investment is 46,657.56 billion yuan (monthly), up 10,423.72 billion yuan; the monthly output of integrated circuits is 4,505,785,400 pieces, up 270,785,400 pieces [2]. 3.6期权情况 - The 20 - day historical volatility of Shanghai copper is 9.23%, down 0.14%; the 40 - day historical volatility of Shanghai copper is 9.70%, unchanged [2]. - The implied volatility of at - the - money options in the current month is 9.35%, down 0.0049%; the call - put ratio of at - the - money options is 1.24, up 0.0605 [2]. 3.7行业消息 - The Trump team is expanding the scope of candidates for the Fed Chair. The White House is expected to announce the Fed Chair candidate this fall [2]. - Goldman Sachs: As of June, US companies bear 64% of the tariff costs, consumers bear 22%, and foreign exporters bear 14%. By October, consumers are expected to bear 67% of the costs, and the proportion borne by companies will drop to less than 10% [2]. - In July, China's automobile production and sales reached 2.591 million and 2.593 million respectively, with year - on - year increases of 13.3% and 14.7%. The production and sales of new energy vehicles reached 1.243 million and 1.262 million respectively, with year - on - year increases of 26.3% and 27.4%. The export of new energy vehicles was 225,000, a year - on - year increase of 1.2 times [2]. - China opposes the politicization, instrumentalization, and weaponization of science, technology, and economic and trade issues, and opposes malicious blockades and suppressions against China. It hopes that the US will work with China to achieve positive results on the basis of equality, respect, and reciprocity [2].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - This report does not provide an industry investment rating. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - On Tuesday, the prices of container shipping index (European line) futures mostly declined. The main contract EC2510 closed down 1.48%, and the far - month contracts declined between 1 - 2%. The latest SCFIS European line settlement freight rate index dropped by 2.7% week - on - week. The continuous decline of spot indicators and the decrease in Maersk's new weekly European line spot cabin opening quotes drove the futures prices down [1]. - Trump's tariff policies and China's counter - measures against the EU have increased the uncertainty of global trade, leading to weak demand expectations for the container shipping index (European line) futures, with large price fluctuations. However, the rapid rise of spot - end price indicators may drive the futures prices to rise in the short term. Investors are advised to be cautious, pay attention to operation rhythm and risk control, and track geopolitical, shipping capacity and cargo volume data [1]. 3. Summary According to Related Data Futures Market Data - EC main contract closing price: 1417.600, down 21.3; EC second - main contract closing price: 1742, down 30.4 [1]. - EC2510 - EC2512 spread: - 324.40, up 16.80; EC2510 - EC2602 spread: - 110.40, down 2.10 [1]. - EC contract basis: 817.88, down 71.18 [1]. - EC main contract open interest: 55954 hands, down 734 [1]. Spot Market Data - SCFIS (European line) (weekly): 2235.48, down 62.38; SCFIS (US West Coast line) (weekly): 1082.14, down 47.98 [1]. - SCFI (composite index) (weekly): 1489.68, down 61.06; Container ship capacity: 1227.97 million TEUs, unchanged [1]. - CCFI (composite index) (weekly): 1200.73, down 31.56; CCFI (European line) (weekly): 1799.05, up 9.55 [1]. - Baltic Dry Index (daily): 2051.00, down 13.00; Panama Freight Index (daily): 1635.00, down 21.00 [1]. - Average charter price (Panamax ship): 13075.00, down 218.00; Average charter price (Cape - size ship): 25236.00, down 2232.00 [1]. Economic and Trade News - The Chinese Foreign Ministry responded to US - related trade issues, opposing the politicization, instrumentalization and weaponization of science, technology and economic and trade issues, and hoped to achieve positive results on an equal, respectful and reciprocal basis [1]. - Trump put the Washington DC police under federal direct control, deployed the National Guard, and declared a public safety emergency in Washington DC [1]. - After the US imposed tariffs on most Mexican fresh tomatoes, Mexico set a minimum export price for fresh tomatoes [1]. - Trump signed an executive order to modify "reciprocal tariffs" for dozens of countries, with tariff rates ranging from 10% to 41%, and an additional 40% tariff on goods considered to be transshipped to avoid tariffs [1]. - China imposed counter - measures on EU brandy, medical devices and other categories, intensifying Sino - EU trade tensions [1]. Economic Data - The US S&P Global Composite PMI in June dropped slightly from 53 in May to 52.8, with obvious price pressure [1]. - The US retail sales data in June rebounded unexpectedly, with a month - on - month growth rate of 0.6%, significantly higher than the market expectation of 0.1% [1].

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. 2. Core Viewpoints - The alumina market is expected to see a slight increase in both supply and demand, with cost support and improved supply expectations due to policy influence. It is recommended to trade with a light position in a volatile manner [2]. - The electrolytic aluminum market may face a situation of slightly increasing supply and weakening demand, with accumulating industrial inventory. Option market sentiment is bullish, and it is advised to trade with a light position in a volatile way [2]. - The cast aluminum market is likely in a stage of slightly shrinking supply and weak demand during the off - season, with accumulating industrial inventory. Light - position volatile trading is recommended [2]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Futures Market - **Prices and Spreads**: The closing price of the Shanghai Aluminum main contract is 20,735 yuan/ton, up 35 yuan; the alumina futures main contract is 3,308 yuan/ton, up 126 yuan. The main - to - second - consecutive contract spread for Shanghai Aluminum is 50 yuan/ton, up 20 yuan; for alumina, it is - 41 yuan/ton, down 22 yuan [2]. - **Inventory and Positions**: Shanghai Aluminum main contract positions decreased by 4,524 hands to 210,986 hands; alumina main contract positions decreased by 18,724 hands to 96,168 hands. LME aluminum inventory increased by 5,275 tons to 475,850 tons; alumina total inventory increased by 38,284 tons to 85,472 tons [2]. 3.2 Spot Market - **Prices**: The Shanghai Non - ferrous A00 aluminum price is 20,630 yuan/ton, down 20 yuan; the alumina spot price in Shanghai Non - ferrous is 3,220 yuan/ton, unchanged [2]. - **Basis**: The basis of cast aluminum alloy decreased by 600 yuan to 110 yuan/ton; the basis of electrolytic aluminum decreased by 55 yuan to - 105 yuan/ton [2]. 3.3 Upstream Situation - **Supply and Demand**: Alumina production increased by 26.13 tons to 774.93 tons, and demand decreased by 23.83 tons to 696.19 tons. The supply - demand balance increased by 52.40 tons to 27.14 tons [2]. - **Trade**: Alumina imports increased by 3.38 tons to 10.13 tons, and exports decreased by 4 tons to 17 tons [2]. 3.4 Industry Situation - **Production and Capacity**: Electrolytic aluminum total capacity increased by 2.5 tons to 4,523.2 tons, and the开工 rate increased by 0.10% to 97.78%. Aluminum product production increased by 11.17 tons to 587.37 tons [2]. - **Trade**: Unwrought aluminum and aluminum product exports increased by 5.2 tons to 54.2 tons; aluminum alloy exports increased by 0.16 tons to 2.58 tons [2]. 3.5 Downstream and Application - **Production**: Automobile production increased by 16.66 million to 280.86 million; aluminum alloy production increased by 2.4 tons to 166.9 tons [2]. - **Index**: The National Real Estate Prosperity Index decreased by 0.11 to 93.60 [2]. 3.6 Option Situation - **Volatility**: The 20 - day historical volatility of Shanghai Aluminum increased by 0.01% to 7.79%; the 40 - day historical volatility decreased by 0.01% to 8.68% [2]. - **Ratio**: The purchase - to - put ratio of Shanghai Aluminum options increased by 0.0403 to 1.19 [2]. 3.7 Industry News - Trump's team is expanding the scope of candidates for the Fed Chair, and the White House may announce the candidate this fall [2]. - Goldman Sachs predicts that by October, consumers will bear 67% of the tariff cost, and enterprises' share will drop to less than 10% [2]. - In July, China's automobile production and sales increased year - on - year, with new energy vehicle production and sales up 26.3% and 27.4% respectively, and new energy vehicle exports up 1.2 times [2]. - China opposes the politicization, instrumentalization, and weaponization of science, technology, and economic and trade issues [2].

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content 2. Core Views - On August 12, the JM2601 contract of coking coal closed at 1313.0, up 6.97%. The macro - expectation is warming up with the upcoming news conference on the new version of the "Coal Mine Safety Regulations". Fundamentally, the overall inventory at the mine end is decreasing, and the clean coal inventory is shifting from upstream mines and coal washing plants to downstream coal - using enterprises. The cumulative import growth rate has been declining for 3 consecutive months, and the total inventory has increased for 4 consecutive weeks. Technically, the daily K - line is above the 20 - day and 60 - day moving averages. It should be treated as oscillating with a strong bias [2]. - On August 12, the J2601 contract of coke closed at 1812.0, up 4.50%. The fifth round of price increase has been implemented on the spot side. The suspension of the 24% tariff between China and the US for 90 days since August 12, 2025 has greatly improved market sentiment. Fundamentally, the raw material inventory has rebounded. The current pig iron output is 242.23 million tons, a decrease of 0.39 million tons. The inventory at the coal mine end is no longer under pressure, and the inventory is shifting downstream. The total coking coal inventory has increased for 4 consecutive weeks. The average loss per ton of coke for 30 independent coking plants nationwide is 16 yuan/ton this period. Technically, the daily K - line is above the 20 - day and 60 - day moving averages. It should be treated as oscillating with a strong bias [2]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Futures Market - JM main contract closing price: 1313.00 yuan/ton, up 57.00 yuan; J main contract closing price: 1812.00 yuan/ton, up 131.00 yuan [2]. - JM futures contract holding volume: 977539.00 lots, up 35457.00 lots; J futures contract holding volume: 54421.00 lots, up 1344.00 lots [2]. - Net holding volume of the top 20 JM contracts: - 82976.00 lots, unchanged; net holding volume of the top 20 J contracts: - 6504.00 lots, unchanged [2]. - JM 1 - 9 month contract spread: 150.50 yuan/ton, up 1.00 yuan; J 1 - 9 month contract spread: 82.00 yuan/ton, up 3.50 yuan [2]. - Coking coal warehouse receipts: 800.00 sheets, up 700.00 sheets; coke warehouse receipts: 800.00 sheets, unchanged [2]. Spot Market - Ganqimao Mongolian No.5 raw coal: 986.00 yuan/ton, up 13.00 yuan; Tangshan Grade - 1 metallurgical coke: 1665.00 yuan/ton, unchanged [2]. - Russian prime coking coal forward spot (CFR): 145.00 US dollars/wet ton, unchanged; Rizhao Port quasi - Grade - 1 metallurgical coke: 1470.00 yuan/ton, unchanged [2]. - Jingtang Port Australian imported prime coking coal: 1610.00 yuan/ton, up 60.00 yuan; Tianjin Port Grade - 1 metallurgical coke: 1570.00 yuan/ton, unchanged [2]. - Jingtang Port Shanxi - produced prime coking coal: 1610.00 yuan/ton, unchanged; Tianjin Port quasi - Grade - 1 metallurgical coke: 1470.00 yuan/ton, unchanged [2]. - Shanxi Jinzhong Lingshi medium - sulfur prime coking coal: 1320.00 yuan/ton, unchanged; J main contract basis: - 147.00 yuan/ton, down 131.00 yuan [2]. - Inner Mongolia Wuhai - produced coking coal ex - factory price: 1100.00 yuan/ton, unchanged; JM main contract basis: 7.00 yuan/ton, down 57.00 yuan [2]. Upstream Situation - Raw coal inventory of 110 coal washing plants (weekly): 277.10 million tons, down 15.43 million tons; clean coal inventory of 110 coal washing plants (weekly): 166.39 million tons, down 9.23 million tons [2]. - Operating rate of 110 coal washing plants (weekly): 61.51%, down 0.80%; raw coal output (monthly): 42107.40 million tons, up 1779.00 million tons [2]. - Coal and lignite import volume (monthly): 3560.90 million tons, up 256.90 million tons; daily average output of raw coal from 523 coking coal mines: 188.30 million tons, down 5.30 million tons [2]. - Imported coking coal inventory at 16 ports (weekly): 463.05 million tons, down 30.89 million tons; coke inventory at 18 ports (weekly): 273.55 million tons, up 2.65 million tons [2]. - Total coking coal inventory of independent coking enterprises (weekly): 987.92 million tons, down 4.81 million tons; coke inventory of independent coking enterprises (weekly): 69.73 million tons, down 3.89 million tons [2]. - Coking coal inventory of 247 national steel mills (weekly): 808.66 million tons, up 4.87 million tons; coke inventory of 247 national sample steel mills (weekly): 619.28 million tons, down 7.41 million tons [2]. - Available days of coking coal for independent coking enterprises (weekly): 12.99 days, up 0.12 days; available days of coke for 247 sample steel mills (weekly): 10.91 days, down 0.26 days [2]. Industry Situation - Coking coal import volume (monthly): 910.84 million tons, up 172.10 million tons; coke and semi - coke export volume (monthly): 51.00 million tons, down 17.00 million tons [2]. - Coking coal output (monthly): 4064.38 million tons, down 5.89 million tons; capacity utilization rate of independent coking enterprises (weekly): 74.03%, up 0.34% [2]. - Profit per ton of coke for independent coking plants (weekly): - 16.00 yuan/ton, up 29.00 yuan; coke output (monthly): 4170.30 million tons, down 67.30 million tons [2]. Downstream Situation - Blast furnace operating rate of 247 national steel mills (weekly): 83.77%, up 0.29%; blast furnace iron - making capacity utilization rate of 247 steel mills (weekly): 90.07%, down 0.15% [2]. - Crude steel output (monthly): 8318.40 million tons, down 336.10 million tons [2]. Industry News - The National Mine Safety Supervision Bureau will hold a special press conference on the new version of the "Coal Mine Safety Regulations" at 10:00 am on August 13 [2]. - As of now, 10 national intelligent demonstration coal mines have been built in Shanxi Province, and a total of 289 intelligent coal mines have been built [2]. - Recently, the "Several Policy Measures for Henan Province to Support Enterprises in Reducing Costs and Increasing Efficiency" was issued, which mentioned accelerating the ultra - low emission transformation of the steel industry [2]. - Goldman Sachs: As of June, US enterprises bear 64% of the tariff cost, consumers bear 22%, and foreign exporters bear 14%. By October, consumers are expected to bear 67% of the cost [2].