1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided 2. Core Viewpoint of the Report - Currently, the egg production is sufficient due to high laying - hen inventory and the pressure of new - laying hens from previous restocking. The egg price remains low compared to the same period, and the farming sector is in a loss. However, as the price reaches a relatively low level, the culling of old hens speeds up, reducing the inventory expectation. With the high - temperature weather in many areas, the laying rate of some hens declines, alleviating the short - term supply pressure. The terminal demand is gradually recovering, which drives the egg price to rebound. The downward trend of the futures market has also slowed down, and it is advisable to lightly trade long on the far - month contracts [2] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Futures Market - The closing price of the active egg futures contract is 3595 yuan/500 kilograms, the net long position of the top 20 futures holders is - 28595 hands (with a week - on - week increase of 215 hands), the egg futures spread (9 - 1) is 22 yuan/500 kilograms, the futures open interest of the active contract is 242019 hands (with a week - on - week decrease of 4073 hands), and the registered warehouse receipt volume is 0 hands [2] 3.2 Spot Market - The spot price of eggs is 2.91 yuan/jin, and the basis (spot - futures) is - 684 yuan/500 kilograms (with a week - on - week increase of 108 yuan/500 kilograms) [2] 3.3 Upstream Situation - The national laying - hen inventory index is 110.89 (with a month - on - month decrease of 1.46), the national culled laying - hen index is 108.68 (with a month - on - month increase of 11.92), the average price of day - old chicks in the main production areas is 3.9 yuan/chick, the national new - chick index is 106.78 (with a month - on - month decrease of 31.9), the average price of laying - hen compound feed is 2.72 yuan/kg, the egg - chicken farming profit is - 0.69 yuan/hen (with a week - on - week decrease of 0.11 yuan/hen), the average price of culled chickens in the main production areas is 9.2 yuan/kg (with a week - on - week decrease of 0.2 yuan/kg), and the national average age of culled chickens is 506 days (with a month - on - month decrease of 4 days) [2] 3.4 Industry Situation - The average wholesale price of 28 key - monitored vegetables is 4.38 yuan/kg (with a day - on - day increase of 0.01 yuan/kg), the average wholesale price of pork is 20.63 yuan/kg, the average wholesale price of dressed chickens is 17.29 yuan/kg (with a day - on - day increase of 0.15 yuan/kg), the weekly inventory in the circulation link is 1.17 days (with a week - on - week decrease of 0.1 days), the weekly inventory in the production link is 1.05 days (with a week - on - week decrease of 0.09 days), and the monthly export volume of fresh eggs is 12792.51 tons (with a month - on - month decrease of 110.81 tons) [2] 3.5 Downstream Situation - The weekly consumption of eggs in the sales areas is 7606 tons (with a week - on - week decrease of 331 tons) [2] 3.6 Industry News - On July 17, 2025, the national production - link inventory was 0.53 days (a decrease of 0.16 days from the previous day), and the circulation - link inventory was 0.74 days (a decrease of 0.18 days from the previous day) [2]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - The report maintains a bullish view on the iron ore industry, suggesting that the price of iron ore will continue to be strongly supported [2]. 2. Core View of the Report - Due to positive macro - level expectations and the continued support of molten iron demand, the iron ore price is expected to remain strong. Technically, the 1 - hour MACD indicator of the I2509 contract shows a golden cross at a high level, with the red bar expanding. It is recommended to conduct short - term bullish trading while paying attention to rhythm and risk control [2]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Futures Market - The closing price of the I main contract is 785.50 yuan/ton, up 12.50 yuan; the position volume is 703,244 hands, up 12,867 hands. The I 9 - 1 contract spread is 33 yuan/ton, up 1.50 yuan; the net position of the top 20 in the I contract is - 6,516 hands, down 1,368 hands. The Dalian Commodity Exchange warehouse receipt is 3,000.00 hands, unchanged. The Singapore iron ore main contract is quoted at 100.75 US dollars/ton at 15:00, up 0.81 US dollars [2]. 3.2现货市场 - The price of 61.5% PB fines at Qingdao Port is 835 yuan/dry ton, up 9 yuan; the price of 60.8% Mac fines is 808 yuan/dry ton, up 9 yuan. The price of 56.5% Super Special fines at Jingtang Port is 714 yuan/dry ton, up 11 yuan. The basis of the I main contract (Mac fines dry ton - main contract) is 22 yuan, down 4 yuan. The 62% Platts iron ore index (previous day) is 99.10 US dollars/ton, up 0.95 US dollars. The ratio of Jiangsu scrap steel to 60.8% Mac fines at Qingdao Port is 3.36, down 0.04. The estimated import cost is 815 yuan/ton, up 7 yuan [2]. 3.3 Industrial Situation - The weekly shipment volume of iron ore from Australia and Brazil is 2,987.10 million tons, down 7.80 million tons; the weekly arrival volume at 47 ports in China is 2,883.20 million tons, up 347.70 million tons. The weekly inventory at 47 ports is 14,346.89 million tons, down 139.01 million tons; the weekly inventory of sample steel mills is 8,979.64 million tons, up 61.07 million tons. The monthly import volume of iron ore is 10,594.80 million tons, up 781.80 million tons. The available days of iron ore are 21 days, up 3 days. The daily output of 266 mines is 39.68 million tons, down 0.72 million tons; the operating rate of 266 mines is 62.83%, down 1.57%. The iron concentrate inventory of 266 mines is 50.72 million tons, down 1.59 million tons. The BDI index is 1,906.00, up 40.00. The freight rate of iron ore from Tubarao, Brazil to Qingdao is 21.01 US dollars/ton, up 0.50 US dollars; the freight rate from Western Australia to Qingdao is 8.47 US dollars/ton, up 0.29 US dollars [2]. 3.4 Downstream Situation - The weekly blast furnace operating rate of 247 steel mills is 83.13%, down 0.31%; the weekly blast furnace capacity utilization rate is 89.87%, down 0.40%. The monthly domestic crude steel output is 8,318 million tons, down 336 million tons [2]. 3.5 Option Market - The 20 - day historical volatility of the underlying is 15.99%, up 0.43%; the 40 - day historical volatility is 15.82%, up 0.39%. The implied volatility of at - the - money call options is 19.31%, up 0.25%; the implied volatility of at - the - money put options is 19.86%, up 1.68% [2]. 3.6 Industry News - From July 7th to July 13th, the total iron ore inventory at seven major ports in Australia and Brazil was 1,393.0 million tons, a week - on - week increase of 123.8 million tons, and the current inventory is at a relatively high level since the beginning of the year. According to Mysteel statistics, the total inventory of imported sinter powder of 114 steel mills under the new caliber is 2,718.82 million tons, a week - on - week decrease of 95.92 million tons. The total daily consumption of imported sinter powder is 112.15 million tons, a week - on - week decrease of 0.27 million tons. The inventory - to - consumption ratio is 24.24, a week - on - week decrease of 0.80 [2].

螺纹钢产业链日报 2025/7/17 | 项目类别 | 数据指标 环比 数据指标 | 最新 | | 最新 | 环比 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 期货市场 | RB主力合约收盘价(元/吨) +27↑ RB主力合约持仓量(手) | 3,133.00 | | 2126876 | -10181↓ | | | RB合约前20名净持仓(手) | 13799 | +29622↑ RB10-1合约价差(元/吨) | -46 | -2↓ | | | RB上期所仓单日报(日，吨) | 94600 | -2089↓ HC2510-RB2510合约价差(元/吨) | 159 | +12↑ | | 现货市场 | 杭州 HRB400E 20MM(理计，元/吨) | 3,270.00 | +20↑ 杭州 HRB400E 20MM(过磅，元/吨) | 3,354 | +21↑ | | | 广州 HRB400E 20MM(理计，元/吨) | 3,320.00 | 0.00 天津 HRB400E 20MM(理计，元/吨) | 3,180.00 | 0.00 | | | RB 主力合约基差 ...

苯乙烯产业日报 2025-07-17 | 项目类别 | 数据指标 | 最新 | 环比 数据指标 | 最新 | 环比 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 期货市场 | 期货收盘价(活跃合约):苯乙烯(日,元/吨) | 7284 | -59 期货成交量(活跃:成交量):苯乙烯(EB)(日, | 284912 | -78678 | | | 前20名持仓:买单量:苯乙烯(日,手) | 399614 | 8249 9月合约收盘价:苯乙烯(日,元/吨) 手) | 7221 | -42 | | | 期货持仓量(活跃:成交量):苯乙烯(EB)(日, | | | | | | | | 182446 | -21932 前20名持仓:净买单量:苯乙烯(日,手) | -27055 | -2627 | | | 手) 前20名持仓:卖单量:苯乙烯(日,手) 现货价:苯乙烯(日,元/吨) | 426669 | 10876 仓单数量:苯乙烯:总计(日,手) | 0 | -7245 -2 | | 现货市场 | | 7946 | -10 苯乙烯:FOB韩国:中间价(日,美元/吨) | 896 | | ...

Report Summary 1. Industry Investment Rating No information provided. 2. Core View The supply of pure benzene remains ample due to the restart of large domestic plants and high port arrivals. Downstream demand is limited, mainly supported by styrene and caprolactam. There are plans for new downstream plants to start production this month, which may improve the supply - demand imbalance. In the short term, the low - valuation situation of spot goods caused by weak supply - demand may continue, and the spot price of pure benzene is expected to fluctuate at a low level. The daily operating range of BZ2603 is expected to be around 6070 - 6200 [2]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Futures Market - The main closing price of pure benzene is 6122 yuan/ton, down 44 yuan; the main settlement price is 6139 yuan/ton, down 14 yuan. The main trading volume is 12912 lots, down 1137 lots; the main open interest is 13126 lots, down 765 lots [2]. Spot Market - The mainstream prices of pure benzene in the East China, North China, South China, and Northeast regions are 5960 yuan/ton, 5800 yuan/ton, 5950 yuan/ton, and 5800 yuan/ton respectively, with changes of - 10 yuan/ton, - 60 yuan/ton, 0 yuan/ton, and - 40 yuan/ton [2]. - The mainstream prices of hydrogenated benzene in Jiangsu and Shanxi regions are 5950 yuan/ton and 5675 yuan/ton respectively, with changes of - 50 yuan/ton and 0 yuan/ton [2]. - The spot price of pure benzene in South Korea (FOB) is 724 dollars/ton, unchanged; the CIF price in China is 740.5 dollars/ton, unchanged [2]. Upstream Situation - The spot price of Brent DTD crude oil is 70.18 dollars/barrel, down 0.93 dollars; the CFR price of naphtha in Japan is 581.38 dollars/ton, down 2.37 dollars [2]. Industry Situation - The capacity utilization rate of pure benzene is 78.14%, up 0.13%; the weekly output is 43.17 tons, down 0.16 tons. The port inventory is 17.4 tons, down 0.3 tons [2]. - The production cost of pure benzene is 5327.8 yuan/ton, down 118.2 yuan; the production profit is 737 yuan/ton, up 76 yuan [2]. Downstream Situation - The开工率 of styrene is 79.21%, down 0.82%; the capacity utilization rates of caprolactam, phenol, aniline, and adipic acid are 95.72% (up 6.41%), 78.54% (down 0.46%), 69.24% (down 0.1%), and 64.3% (up 2%) respectively [2]. Industry News - From July 4th to 10th, the weekly profit of pure benzene was 584 yuan/ton, down 153 yuan/ton compared to the previous period [2]. - As of July 14th, the commercial inventory of pure benzene in Jiangsu ports was 16.4 tons, down 5.75% from the previous period [2]. - BZ2603 fluctuated weakly, closing at 6122 yuan/ton. Last week, the impact of shutdowns of petroleum benzene plants expanded, with the capacity utilization rate down 0.29% to 77.85%; three hydrogenated benzene plants shut down, with the capacity utilization rate down 9.32% to 61.95% [2].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant information provided 2. Core Views of the Report - International corn prices are under continuous pressure due to the good initial growth condition and high output prospects of US corn. In the domestic market, the auction of imported corn shows a downward trend in trading volume and premium, leading to a weakening price. Corn futures prices have been falling from high levels recently [2]. - Corn starch industry's supply pressure has decreased due to continuous production losses and low operating rates. However, downstream demand is in the traditional off - season, resulting in a still loose supply - demand situation. Corn starch prices have declined recently following the fall of corn prices [2][3] 3. Summary by Related Catalogs 3.1 Futures Market - Corn futures: The closing price of the active contract is 2296 yuan/ton, up 3 yuan; the monthly spread (9 - 1) is 56 yuan/ton, down 3 yuan; the net long position of the top 20 futures holders is - 18280 hands, up 2330 hands; the registered warehouse receipt volume is 184971 hands, down 450 hands; the CS - C spread of the main contract is 350 yuan/ton, up 4 yuan [2]. - Corn starch futures: The closing price of the active contract is 2646 yuan/ton, up 7 yuan; the monthly spread (9 - 11) is 48 yuan/ton, up 3 yuan; the net long position of the top 20 futures holders is - 14647 hands, down 571 hands; the registered warehouse receipt volume is 13094 hands, down 2700 hands [2]. - CBOT corn: The closing price of the active contract is 424.5 cents/bushel, up 5.25 cents; the total position is 1498964 contracts, up 297 contracts; the non - commercial net long position is - 141762 contracts, up 13764 contracts [2]. 3.2 Spot Market - Corn: The average spot price is 2409.12 yuan/ton, up 0.2 yuan; the FOB price at Jinzhou Port is 2340 yuan/ton, down 10 yuan; the CIF price of imported corn is 1901.84 yuan/ton, down 0.72 yuan; the international freight of imported corn is 45 dollars/ton, unchanged; the basis of the main corn contract is 113.12 yuan/ton, down 2.8 yuan [2]. - Corn starch: The ex - factory price in Changchun is 2680 yuan/ton, unchanged; in Weifang is 2900 yuan/ton, unchanged; in Shijiazhuang is 2840 yuan/ton, unchanged; the basis of the main corn starch contract is 34 yuan/ton, down 7 yuan; the spread between Shandong starch and corn is 410 yuan/ton, up 10 yuan [2]. - Substitute products: The average spot price of wheat is 2441.33 yuan/ton, down 1.11 yuan; the spread between tapioca starch and corn starch is 139 yuan/ton, up 19 yuan; the spread between corn starch and 30 - powder is 12 yuan/ton, down 2 yuan [2]. 3.3 Upstream Situation - Corn production forecast: The predicted annual production in the US is 401.85 million tons; in Brazil is 131 million tons; in Argentina is 53 million tons; in China is 295 million tons; in Ukraine is 30.5 million tons [2]. - Corn sowing area forecast: The predicted sowing area in the US is 35.37 million hectares; in Brazil is 22.6 million hectares; in Argentina is 7.5 million hectares; in China is 44.3 million hectares [2]. 3.4 Industry Situation - Corn inventory: The inventory at southern ports is 88.6 tons, down 15.5 tons; at northern ports is 353 tons, down 17 tons; the inventory of deep - processing enterprises is 443.6 tons, up 8.2 tons [2]. - Corn starch inventory: The weekly inventory of starch enterprises is 134.6 tons, up 0.9 tons [2][3]. - Import and export: The monthly import volume of corn is 19 tons, up 1 ton; the monthly export volume of corn starch is 27.78 tons, up 4.06 tons [2]. - Production: The monthly production of feed is 2762.1 tons, up 98.1 tons [2]. 3.5 Downstream Situation - Consumption: The weekly consumption of deep - processed corn is 115.78 tons, down 1.85 tons [2]. - Processing profit: The processing profit of corn starch in Shandong is - 138 yuan/ton, down 14 yuan; in Hebei is - 11 yuan/ton, unchanged; in Jilin is - 72 yuan/ton, down 2 yuan [2]. - Operating rate: The operating rate of alcohol enterprises is 42.96%, down 1.92%; the operating rate of starch enterprises is 50.29%, up 0.15% [2]. 3.6 Option Market - Corn historical volatility: The 20 - day historical volatility is 6.09%, down 0.2%; the 60 - day historical volatility is 6.95%, down 0.08% [2]. - Corn option implied volatility: The implied volatility of at - the - money call options is 10.5%, up 0.1%; the implied volatility of at - the - money put options is 10.5%, up 0.1% [2]. 3.7 Industry News - The US Department of Agriculture will release the weekly export sales report on Thursday. Analysts expect the net export sales volume of US corn from July 1 - 10, 2025 to be between 900,000 and 2.1 million tons [2]. - As of July 13, 2025, the good - to - excellent rate of US corn is 74%, in line with market expectations, the same as the previous week and higher than 68% in the same period last year [2]. 3.8 Key Points to Follow - Pay attention to the weekly consumption of mysteel corn and the operating rate and inventory of starch enterprises on Thursday and Friday [3]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant information provided 2. Core View of the Report - The current core combination of "weak economic recovery + low inflation" remains unchanged, and the loose liquidity continues, which still provides positive support for the bond market. In the short term, the upside and downside space of yields is limited, and it is expected that Treasury bond futures will continue to fluctuate. Given that there is no directional turn in the policy environment and fundamentals, investors are advised to maintain a certain position [2] 3. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Futures Disk - T, TF, and TL main contract closing prices decreased by 0.05%, 0.01%, and 0.05% respectively, while the TS main contract closing price increased by 0.01%. The trading volumes of T, TF, TS, and TL main contracts decreased by 1203, 616, 81, and 2014 respectively [2] 3.2 Futures Spreads - The spreads of TL2512 - 2509, T2512 - 2509, TF2512 - 2509 increased by 0.01, 0.04, and 0.02 respectively, while the spread of TS2512 - 2509 remained unchanged. The spreads of T09 - TL09 remained unchanged, and the spreads of TF09 - T09, TS09 - T09, TS09 - TF09 increased by 0.03, 0.06, and 0.03 respectively [2] 3.3 Futures Positions - The main contract positions of T, TF, TS, and TL decreased by 2732, 3823, 718, and 2238 respectively. Among the top 20 long - positions, T and TS decreased by 1044 and 793 respectively, while TF and TL increased by 603 and 412 respectively. Among the top 20 short - positions, T decreased by 184, TF decreased by 730, TS decreased by 25, and TL increased by 170. The net short - positions of T and TS increased by 860 and 768 respectively, while those of TF and TL decreased by 1333 and 242 respectively [2] 3.4 CTD (Clean Price) - The clean prices of 250007.IB, 240020.IB, 210014.IB decreased by 0.0380, 0.0175, 0.0832 respectively, while the clean prices of 220010.IB, 250006.IB, 240010.IB, 210005.IB increased by 0.0168, 0.0262, 0.0090, 0.0637 respectively [2] 3.5 Active Treasury Bond Yields - The yields of 3y, 5y, 7y, 10y decreased by 1.25bp, 1.30bp, 1.65bp, 1.11bp respectively, while the 1y yield remained unchanged [2] 3.6 Short - term Interest Rates - The silver - pledged overnight rate increased by 17.02bp, while the Shibor overnight rate decreased by 6.90bp. The silver - pledged 7 - day and 14 - day rates decreased by 4.43bp and increased by 2.00bp respectively, and the Shibor 7 - day and 14 - day rates decreased by 4.20bp and 2.00bp respectively [2] 3.7 LPR Rates - The 1y and 5y LPR rates remained unchanged [2] 3.8 Open Market Operations - The issuance scale was 520.1 billion yuan and 444.6 billion yuan, and the maturity scale was 75.5 billion yuan, with an interest rate of 1.4% for 7 - day [2] 3.9 Industry News - In June, the industrial added value of large - scale industries increased by 6.8% year - on - year, and the total retail sales of consumer goods was 4228.7 billion yuan, a year - on - year increase of 4.8%. In the first half of 2025, the national fixed - asset investment (excluding rural households) was 24865.4 billion yuan, a year - on - year increase of 2.8%, and the fixed - asset investment in June decreased by 0.12% month - on - month. From January to June, the national real estate development investment was 4665.8 billion yuan, a year - on - year decrease of 11.2%. In the first half of the year, the total value of China - US imports and exports was 2.08 trillion yuan, a year - on - year decrease of 9.3%, among which exports decreased by 9.9% and imports decreased by 7.7%. The China - US trade turned from a year - on - year increase in the first quarter to a year - on - year decrease in the second quarter, with a decline of 20.8% [2] 3.10 Market Performance - On Wednesday, Treasury bond cash bonds showed mixed trends. The yields of 1 - 3Y bonds decreased by about 0.25 - 0.85bp, the yields of 5 - 7Y bonds increased by about 0.50bp, and the yields of 10Y and 30Y bonds increased by about 0.30bp and 0.50bp respectively. Most Treasury bond futures declined, with the TS main contract rising by 0.01%, and the TF, T, TL main contracts falling by 0.01%, 0.05%, 0.05% respectively [2] 3.11 Domestic Fundamentals - In June, industrial added value and retail sales showed a slight recovery, the scale of fixed - asset investment continued to shrink, and the unemployment rate remained the same as the previous month. In terms of financial data, social financing increased more than expected, credit demand improved marginally, and the activity of deposits increased. In June, affected by the progress of China - US trade negotiations, imports and exports increased significantly year - on - year. The price level continued to be under pressure, with CPI improving marginally and PPI falling into deflation for 7 consecutive months [2] 3.12 Overseas Situation - In June, the US core CPI was continuously lower than expected, but due to the recent US tariff policy, inflation risks continued to rise. There were greater differences within the Fed regarding the impact of tariffs on the inflation path, but the policy tone remained cautious and wait - and - see, and there was no consensus on the expectation of interest rate cuts [2]

Report Summary 1. Investment Rating No investment rating for the industry is provided in the report. 2. Core View - A-share major indices mostly rose, with the three major indices showing divergence. The Shanghai Composite Index opened lower and fluctuated, briefly falling below 3,500 points, while the Shenzhen Component Index and the ChiNext Index rose and then declined. As of the close, the Shanghai Composite Index fell 0.03%, the Shenzhen Component Index fell 0.22%, and the ChiNext Index fell 0.22%. Trading volume in the Shanghai and Shenzhen stock markets decreased significantly. Sector performance varied, with the social services and automobile sectors leading the gains and the steel sector leading the losses. - Domestically, in terms of the economic fundamentals, GDP in Q2 increased by 5.2% year-on-year, meeting market expectations. However, the growth rates of social retail and fixed - asset investment declined significantly, and the real estate market continued to decline. Imports and exports improved against the backdrop of easing Sino - US trade relations. - In terms of financial data, the year - on - year growth rates of M1 and M2 in June accelerated compared to May, with the M1 growth rate rising significantly and the M2 - M1 gap narrowing, indicating that residents' and enterprises' willingness to invest and consume may have improved with the support of loose monetary policies. - For individual stocks, the profit situation of listed companies that have announced semi - annual performance forecasts remains good. - Overall, the real estate market still drags down fixed - asset investment growth, and the support of trade - in programs for social retail has weakened. However, financial data shows that the effects of loose monetary policies have emerged, which may be reflected in subsequent economic indicators. With the release of mid - year report performance forecasts and the approaching Politburo meeting at the end of July, the market is optimistic about the first - half earnings of listed companies, and bulls may pre - arrange. The stock index has long - term upward potential, but weak economic data in June will put short - term pressure on the market, and the market may fluctuate around the 3,500 mark. The short - term strategy is to wait and see, while the medium - to - long - term strategy is to buy on dips with a light position [5]. 3. Summary by Category 3.1 Futures Market - **Futures Prices**: The prices of IF (2509), IH (2509), and IF (2507), IH (2507) contracts decreased, while the prices of IC (2509), IM (2509), IC (2507), and IM (2507) contracts increased. For example, the IF (2509) contract was at 3,971.0, down 10.4; the IM (2509) contract was at 6,298.0, up 23.2 [2]. - **Futures Spreads**: The spreads between different contracts showed various changes. For instance, the IF - IH monthly contract spread was 1,264.4, down 5.0; the IM - IC monthly contract spread was 437.8, up 24.0 [2]. - **Futures Positions**: The net positions of the top 20 in IF increased by 1,790.0 to - 27,854.00, while the net positions of the top 20 in IH decreased by 207.0 to - 14,671.00. The net positions of the top 20 in IC and IM also changed [2]. - **Futures Basis**: The basis of the IF, IH, IC, and IM main contracts all increased. For example, the IF main contract basis was - 36.2, up 2.3 [2]. 3.2 Spot Market - **Spot Prices**: The prices of the Shanghai Composite 50, CSI 500, and CSI 1000 indices changed. The Shanghai Composite 50 was at 2,740.90, down 6.3; the CSI 1000 was at 6,462.06, up 19.2 [2]. 3.3 Market Sentiment - **Trading Volume and Balance**: A - share trading volume was 146.1734 billion yuan, down 17.327 billion yuan; the margin trading balance was 189.0406 billion yuan, up 5.016 billion yuan. The north - bound trading volume was 201.657 billion yuan, up 10.454 billion yuan [2]. - **Other Indicators**: The proportion of rising stocks was 60.49%, up 35.90 percentage points; the Shibor was 1.466%, down 0.069 percentage points [2]. 3.4 Industry News - **Foreign Trade**: In June, China's exports (in RMB) increased by 7.2% year - on - year, and imports increased by 2.3%. The trade surplus was 825.97 billion yuan. In the first half of the year, exports increased by 7.2% year - on - year, and imports decreased by 2.7%. The trade surplus was 4,212.51 billion yuan [2]. - **Social Financing**: In the first half of 2025, the cumulative increase in social financing scale was 22.83 trillion yuan, 12% more than the same period last year. The net cash injection in the first half of the year was 363.3 billion yuan [2]. - **GDP**: In the first half of the year, GDP was 66.0536 trillion yuan, a year - on - year increase of 5.3% at constant prices. In Q1, GDP increased by 5.4% year - on - year, and in Q2, it increased by 5.2% year - on - year. The Q2 GDP increased by 1.1% quarter - on - quarter [2][3]. - **Consumption and Industry**: In June, social consumer goods retail sales were 422.87 billion yuan, a year - on - year increase of 4.8%. From January to June, social consumer goods retail sales were 2,454.58 billion yuan, a year - on - year increase of 5.0%. In June, the added value of industrial enterprises above the designated size increased by 6.8% year - on - year and 0.50% month - on - month. From January to June, it increased by 6.4% year - on - year [3]. - **Investment**: In the first half of 2025, national fixed - asset investment (excluding rural households) was 2,486.54 billion yuan, a year - on - year increase of 2.8%. After deducting the impact of price factors, it increased by 5.3% year - on - year. In June, fixed - asset investment (excluding rural households) decreased by 0.12% month - on - month [3]. - **Real Estate**: From January to June, national real estate development investment was 466.58 billion yuan, a year - on - year decrease of 11.2%. The sales area of newly built commercial housing was 458.51 million square meters, a year - on - year decrease of 3.5%. The sales volume of newly built commercial housing was 442.41 billion yuan, a year - on - year decrease of 5.5%. The funds available to real estate development enterprises were 502.02 billion yuan, a year - on - year decrease of 6.2%. The national real estate climate index was 93.60 [3][4]. - **Monetary Data**: At the end of June 2025, the stock of social financing scale was 430.22 trillion yuan, a year - on - year increase of 8.9%. At the end of June, the balance of broad - money (M2) was 330.29 trillion yuan, a year - on - year increase of 8.3%. The balance of narrow - money (M1) was 113.95 trillion yuan, a year - on - year increase of 4.6%. The balance of currency in circulation (M0) was 13.18 trillion yuan, a year - on - year increase [3].

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the report 2. Core Viewpoint - On Wednesday, the HC2510 contract decreased in position and consolidated. The U.S. Treasury Secretary stated that there's no need to worry about the deadline for the suspension of additional tariffs between the U.S. and China, and the negotiation situation is "good", with talks expected in the next few weeks. In terms of supply and demand, the weekly output of hot-rolled coils decreased slightly, with a capacity utilization rate of 82.55%. Factory inventories decreased while social inventories increased, with total inventory rising by 0.63 tons. Apparent demand decreased slightly but remained above 3.2 million tons. Overall, hot-rolled coil production remains at a relatively high level, terminal demand has strong resilience, and tariff disturbances affect market sentiment. Technically, the 1-hour MACD indicator of the HC2510 contract shows that DIFF and DEA are adjusting downward. It is recommended to conduct intraday short - term trading and pay attention to rhythm and risk control [2]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Futures Market - The closing price of the HC main contract was 3,253 yuan/ton, down 6 yuan; the position volume was 1,549,973 lots, down 16,803 lots; the net position of the top 20 in the HC contract was - 21,898 lots, down 1,037 lots; the HC10 - 1 contract spread was - 18 yuan/ton, unchanged; the HC warehouse receipt at the Shanghai Futures Exchange was 62,501 tons, down 2,086 tons; the HC2510 - RB2510 contract spread was 147 yuan/ton, up 2 yuan [2]. 3.2 Spot Market - The price of 4.75 hot - rolled coils in Hangzhou was 3,310 yuan/ton, unchanged; in Guangzhou was 3,300 yuan/ton, unchanged; in Wuhan was 3,330 yuan/ton, unchanged; in Tianjin was 3,200 yuan/ton, unchanged. The basis of the HC main contract was 57 yuan/ton, up 6 yuan; the price difference between hot - rolled coils and rebar in Hangzhou was 50 yuan/ton, unchanged [2]. 3.3 Upstream Situation - The price of 61.5% PB fine ore at Qingdao Port was 756 yuan/wet ton, up 4 yuan; the price of quasi - first - grade metallurgical coke in Hebei was 1,265 yuan/ton, unchanged; the price of 6 - 8mm scrap steel in Tangshan was 2,210 yuan/ton, unchanged; the price of Q235 billet in Hebei was 2,950 yuan/ton, unchanged. The domestic iron ore port inventory was 137.6589 million tons, down 1.1251 million tons; the coke inventory of sample coking plants was 597,700 tons, down 19,400 tons; the coke inventory of sample steel mills was 6.3797 million tons, up 4,200 tons; the billet inventory in Hebei was 975,300 tons, up 101,900 tons [2]. 3.4 Industry Situation - The blast furnace operating rate of 247 steel mills was 83.13%, down 0.31%; the blast furnace capacity utilization rate was 89.87%, down 0.40%. The hot - rolled coil output of sample steel mills was 3.2314 million tons, down 50,000 tons; the capacity utilization rate of hot - rolled coils was 82.55%, down 1.28%. The hot - rolled coil factory inventory of sample steel mills was 778,100 tons, down 5,100 tons; the social inventory of hot - rolled coils in 33 cities was 2.6775 million tons, up 11,400 tons. The domestic crude steel output was 83.18 million tons, down 3.37 million tons; the net export volume of steel was 9.208 million tons, down 892,000 tons [2]. 3.5 Downstream Situation - The monthly automobile production was 2.7941 million vehicles, up 145,600 vehicles; the monthly automobile sales were 2.9045 million vehicles, up 218,100 vehicles. The monthly output of air conditioners was 29.48 million units, down 1.353 million units; the monthly output of household refrigerators was 8.51 million units, up 331,000 units; the monthly output of household washing machines was 9.412 million units, down 239,000 units [2]. 3.6 Industry News - Trump said that an agreement was reached with Indonesia. Indonesian goods exported to the U.S. will pay a 19% tariff, while U.S. exports are tariff - free. In the first half of 2025, the national fixed - asset investment (excluding rural households) was 2.48654 trillion yuan, a year - on - year increase of 2.8%. Among them, private fixed - asset investment decreased by 0.6% year - on - year. After deducting the impact of price factors, fixed - asset investment (excluding rural households) increased by 5.3% year - on - year. From a month - on - month perspective, fixed - asset investment (excluding rural households) in June decreased by 0.12% [2]. 3.7 Key Focus - The weekly output, factory inventory, and social inventory of hot - rolled coils on Thursday [2]

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content Core View of the Report - Domestic white sugar prices fluctuate with raw sugar, but domestic demand recovery makes it stronger than the foreign market. Later, supply and demand will be strong, and price fluctuations will intensify. It is recommended to wait and see and pay attention to arrivals and summer consumption [2] Summary by Related Catalogs Futures Market - The closing price of the main futures contract for white sugar is 5808 yuan/ton, up 6 yuan; the main contract position is 312,832 lots, down 4,282 lots [2] - The number of warehouse receipts is 22,289, down 313; the net long position of the top 20 futures holders is -19,210 lots [2] - The estimated import processing price of Brazilian sugar within the quota is 4,414 yuan/ton, down 60 yuan; that of Thai sugar is 4,543 yuan/ton, down 60 yuan [2] - The estimated import price of Brazilian sugar outside the quota (50% tariff) is 5,605 yuan/ton, down 79 yuan; that of Thai sugar is 5,774 yuan/ton, down 78 yuan [2] 现货市场 - The spot price of white sugar in Kunming is 5,905 yuan/ton, unchanged; in Nanning is 6,050 yuan/ton, down 10 yuan; in Liuzhou is 6,120 yuan/ton, down 10 yuan [2] Upstream Situation - The national sugar - cane planting area is 1,480 thousand hectares, up 60 thousand hectares; the planting area of sugar - cane in Guangxi is 835.09 thousand hectares, down 12.86 thousand hectares [2] - The national cumulative sugar production is 11.1621 million tons, up 54,900 tons; the cumulative sugar sales volume is 8.1138 million tons, up 869,200 tons [2] - The national industrial sugar inventory is 3.0483 million tons, down 814,300 tons; the national sugar sales rate is 72.69%, up 7.47 percentage points [2] - The monthly import volume of sugar is 350,000 tons, up 220,000 tons; the monthly export volume of sugar from Brazil is 3.359 million tons, up 1.1024 million tons [2] Industry Situation - The price difference between imported Brazilian sugar and the current price of Liuzhou sugar within the quota is 1,561 yuan/ton, up 77 yuan; that of Thai sugar is 1,432 yuan/ton, up 77 yuan [2] - The price difference between imported Brazilian sugar and the current price of Liuzhou sugar outside the quota (50% tariff) is 370 yuan/ton, up 96 yuan; that of Thai sugar is 201 yuan/ton, up 95 yuan [2] Downstream Situation - The cumulative year - on - year growth rate of refined sugar production is 16.7%, up 2.6 percentage points; the cumulative year - on - year growth rate of soft drink production is 3%, down 0.9 percentage points [2] Option Market - The implied volatility of at - the - money call options for white sugar is 7.47%, up 0.2 percentage points; that of put options is 7.47%, up 0.2 percentage points [2] - The 20 - day historical volatility of white sugar is 6.62%, up 0.04 percentage points; the 60 - day historical volatility is 7.53%, up 0.01 percentage points [2] Industry News - Pakistan cancelled a large - scale sugar import tender and submitted a revised tender to import 50,000 tons of sugar [2] - In the international market, the rainy season in Asia makes the supply outlook good, suppressing raw sugar prices. However, the sugar production in the central - southern region of Brazil decreased in the second half of June, providing some support [2] Data from Brazil - In the second half of June, the sugar - cane crushing volume in the central - southern region of Brazil was 42.706 million tons, a year - on - year decline of 12.86%; the sugar production was 2.845 million tons, a 12.98% decrease compared to the three - year average [2] - In the first two weeks of July, Brazil exported 1,369,926.41 tons of sugar, with an average daily export volume of 152,214.05 tons, a 7.44% decrease compared to the average daily export volume in July last year [2]