Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Core View of the Report - On Thursday, most futures prices of the Container Shipping Index (European Line) declined. The spot price index has been rising continuously, indicating that the previous price increase announcements by leading shipping companies are likely to be implemented. However, due to trade - war uncertainties, the demand for the Container Shipping Index (European Line) is expected to be weak, and the futures prices fluctuate greatly. The rapid recovery of spot - end price indicators may drive the futures prices to rise in the short term. Investors are advised to be cautious and pay attention to operation rhythm and risk control, and track geopolitical, shipping capacity, and cargo volume data [1] Summary by Relevant Contents Futures Market Data - EC2510, the main contract, closed down 4.28%, and the far - month contracts closed down between 1 - 3%. The latest SCFIS European Line settlement freight rate index is 2421.94, up 163.9 points from last week, a 7.3% week - on - week increase. The EC main contract closed at 2164.500, up 16.0; the EC secondary main contract closed at 1581.3, down 70.70. The EC2508 - EC2510 spread increased by 28.30, and the EC2508 - EC2512 spread was 583.20, up 14.20. The EC contract basis was 257.44, down 11.50. The EC main contract open interest was 16587, down 2160 [1] Spot Market Data - SCFIS (European Line) (weekly) increased by 163.90, SCFIS (US West Line) (weekly) was 1266.59, down 291.18. SCFI (Comprehensive Index) (weekly) decreased by 30.20, and container ship capacity (in ten thousand TEUs) was 1733.29, down 0.25. CCFI (Comprehensive Index) (weekly) decreased by 29.29, CCFI (European Line) (weekly) was 1726.41, up 32.11. The Baltic Dry Index (daily) decreased by 40.00, the Panamax Freight Index (daily) was 1967.00, up 23.00. The average charter price of Panamax ships was 14788.00, down 95.00, and that of Capesize ships was 18645.00, up 1736.00 [1] Industry News - Trump said that drug tariffs may be introduced by the end of the month, and the timeline for chip tariffs is similar but less complex. He is studying 5 - 6 trade agreements, and 2 - 3 agreements may be reached before August 1. He may impose a unified tariff of about 10% on all small countries and send tariff payment notices to 150 countries. He is negotiating with India and the two sides are close to an agreement. The Fed's "Beige Book" shows that economic activity increased slightly from late May to early July, with high uncertainty and a neutral to slightly pessimistic economic outlook. The US Trade Representative's Office launched a 301 investigation into Brazil's unfair trade practices. Mexican President Cinbaum said Mexico does not accept the so - called "anti - dumping duty" on Mexican tomatoes imposed by the US unilaterally and will take corresponding actions if an agreement on tariffs cannot be reached by August 1 [1] Economic Data - In June, the US S&P Global Composite PMI index dropped slightly from 53 in May to 52.8. Price pressure increased significantly. In May, core PCE increased by 2.7% year - on - year, slightly exceeding the market expectation of 2.6%. Real personal consumption expenditure decreased by 0.3% month - on - month, the largest decline since the beginning of the year, and personal income decreased by 0.4% month - on - month, the largest decline since 2021 [1] Future Outlook - Trump threatens to impose a maximum 30% tariff on EU products starting August 1. China has implemented counter - measures against EU products such as brandy and medical devices. The 7 - 8 month period is a window for countries like Europe, Japan, and Vietnam to renegotiate with the US, with uncertainties remaining [1] Key Data to Focus On - On July 18 at 07:30, Japan's June core CPI annual rate; at 14:00, Germany's June PPI monthly rate; at 22:00, the US July one - year inflation rate expectation preliminary value and the US July University of Michigan consumer confidence index preliminary value [1]

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating There is no information about the report industry investment rating in the content. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The supply - demand of lithium carbonate remains weak, with high and continuously accumulating inventory. The market shows abnormal movements due to the information of suspended lithium resource exploitation by listed companies, but fundamental pressure still exists after the news fades. Short - term trading requires caution and risk control [2]. - The put - call ratio of option positions is 36.57%, a - 1.5477% month - on - month decrease. The call positions in the option market dominate, indicating a bullish sentiment, and the implied volatility slightly decreases. - Technically, on the 60 - minute MACD chart, the double lines are above the 0 - axis, and the red bars slightly expand. - The operation suggestion is to lightly short at high prices and pay attention to trading rhythm to control risks [2]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Futures Market - The closing price of the main contract is 67,960 yuan/ton, up 1,540 yuan; the net position of the top 20 is - 120,421 hands, down 4,072 hands; the position volume of the main contract is 363,676 hands, up 23,058 hands; the spread between near - and far - month contracts is 760 yuan/ton, unchanged; the warehouse receipts of GZEE are 11,203 hands, down 1 hand [2]. Spot Market - The average price of battery - grade lithium carbonate is 64,950 yuan/ton, up 50 yuan; the average price of industrial - grade lithium carbonate is 63,350 yuan/ton, unchanged; the basis of the Li₂CO₃ main contract is - 3,010 yuan/ton, down 1,490 yuan [2]. Upstream Situation - The average price of spodumene concentrate (6% CIF China) is 698 US dollars/ton, unchanged; the average price of amblygonite is 5,535 yuan/ton, unchanged; the price of lepidolite (2 - 2.5%) is 1,759 yuan/ton, unchanged [2]. Industry Situation - Lithium carbonate production is 42,100 tons, down 5,800 tons; imports are 21,145.78 tons, down 7,190.11 tons; exports are 286.74 tons, down 447.55 tons; the operating rate of lithium carbonate enterprises is 47%, down 6 percentage points; power battery production is 129,200 MWh, up 5,700 MWh; the price of lithium manganate is 28,500 yuan/ton, unchanged; the price of lithium hexafluorophosphate is 49,300 yuan/ton, unchanged; the price of lithium cobalt oxide is 220,000 yuan/ton, unchanged; the price of ternary material (811 type) in China is 144,500 yuan/ton, unchanged; the price of ternary material (622 power type) in China is 120,000 yuan/ton, unchanged [2]. Downstream and Application Situation - The price of ternary material (523 single - crystal type) in China is 125,000 yuan/ton, unchanged; the operating rate of ternary cathode materials is 55%, up 2 percentage points; the price of lithium iron phosphate is 30,500 yuan/ton, unchanged; the operating rate of lithium iron phosphate cathodes is 49%, up 2 percentage points; the monthly production of new energy vehicles is 1,268,000, down 2,000; the monthly sales are 1,329,000, up 22,000; the cumulative sales penetration rate of new energy vehicles is 44.32%, up 0.33 percentage points; the cumulative sales are 6,937,000, up 1,993,000; the monthly export volume is 205,000, down 7,000; the cumulative export volume is 1,060,000, up 455,000; the 20 - day average volatility of the underlying is 22.82%, up 0.86 percentage points; the 40 - day average volatility is 22.49%, up 0.61 percentage points [2]. Option Situation - The total call position is 178,316, up 13,582; the total put position is 65,218, up 2,418; the put - call ratio of total positions is 36.57%, down 1.5477 percentage points; the at - the - money IV implied volatility is 0.28%, down 0.0033 percentage points [2]. Industry News - The State Council Executive Meeting studied the implementation of key policy measures to strengthen the domestic large - cycle and listened to the report on standardizing the competition order of the new energy vehicle industry. It aims to promote the high - quality development of the new energy vehicle industry and standardize the competition order [2]. - According to the data of the Passenger Car Association, from July 1 - 13, the retail sales of the national passenger car market were 571,000, a year - on - year increase of 7% and a month - on - month decrease of 5%. The cumulative retail sales this year were 1,147.3 million, a year - on - year increase of 11%. The retail sales of the national new energy passenger car market were 332,000, a year - on - year increase of 26% and a month - on - month decrease of 4%. The retail penetration rate of the new energy market was 58.1%. The cumulative retail sales this year were 580.1 million, a year - on - year increase of 33% [2]. - Zangge Mining announced at noon on July 17 that its wholly - owned subsidiary received a notice to immediately stop lithium resource development and utilization activities on July 16 [2].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided in the report 2. Core Viewpoints - On the raw material side, the Indonesian government's PNBP policy issuance restrictions increase the cost of nickel resource supply, but the production of nickel iron in Indonesia has rebounded significantly, and the price of nickel iron has dropped recently, weakening the support of raw material costs [2] - On the supply side, steel mills are under increasing pressure of cost inversion and are in a loss state across the board, forcing them to increase production cuts. Domestic anti - involution measures may accelerate the alleviation of the oversupply situation, and stainless steel production is expected to decline further [2] - On the demand side, it has entered the traditional consumption off - season, with increased macro - market uncertainties and continued pressure on export demand. Downstream buyers are hesitant, with poor acceptance of high - priced goods. The domestic inventory reduction is not satisfactory, and attention should be paid to the inventory reduction effect brought about by subsequent production cuts [2] - Technically, there is a reduction in positions and differences between long and short sides. Attention should be paid to the support of MA10, and short - term consolidation is expected. It is recommended to wait and see for now [2] 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Futures Market - The closing price of the stainless steel futures main contract is 12,730 yuan/ton, with a daily increase of 60 yuan; the spread between the 08 - 09 contracts is 25 yuan/ton, with a daily increase of 5 yuan [2] - The net long position of the top 20 futures holders is - 9,161 lots, a daily decrease of 595 lots; the position of the main contract is 104,645 lots [2] - The warehouse receipt quantity is 110,572 tons, a daily decrease of 300 tons [2] 3.2 Spot Market - The price of 304/2B cut - edge coils in Wuxi is 13,300 yuan/ton, unchanged; the market price of scrap stainless steel 304 in Wuxi is 9,200 yuan/ton, unchanged [2] - The basis of the SS main contract is 250 yuan/ton, a daily decrease of 25 yuan [2] 3.3 Upstream Situation - The monthly electrolytic nickel output is 29,430 tons, an increase of 1,120 tons; the total monthly nickel iron output is 23,900 metal tons, an increase of 2,200 metal tons [2] - The monthly import volume of refined nickel and alloys is 17,687.58 tons, a decrease of 1,058.97 tons; the monthly import volume of nickel iron is 848,200 tons, an increase of 31,300 tons [2] - The daily SMM1 nickel spot price is 120,450 yuan/ton, a decrease of 1,650 yuan; the national average price of nickel iron (7 - 10%) is 900 yuan/nickel point, unchanged [2] - The monthly output of Chinese ferrochrome is 757,800 tons, a decrease of 26,900 tons [2] 3.4 Industry Situation - The monthly output of 300 - series stainless steel is 1.7847 million tons, a decrease of 39,600 tons; the weekly total inventory of 300 - series stainless steel is 624,400 tons, an increase of 18,500 tons [2] - The monthly stainless steel export volume is 458,500 tons, a decrease of 29,500 tons [2] 3.5 Downstream Situation - The cumulative monthly new housing construction area is 231.8361 million square meters, an increase of 53.4777 million square meters [2] - The monthly output of large and medium - sized tractors is 246,000 units, a decrease of 10,400 units; the monthly output of small tractors is 110,000 units, a decrease of 10,000 units; the monthly output of excavators is 258,000 units, a decrease of 2,000 units [2] 3.6 Industry News - The US PPI in June had a year - on - year increase of 2.3%, significantly lower than the expected 2.5%, the lowest since September 2024, with a month - on - month increase of 0% [2] - Trump said that the countries receiving tariff letters are small in scale and trade volume, the US and India are close to reaching an agreement, and there may be an agreement with the EU [2] - Li Qiang proposed to study the implementation of key policies to strengthen the domestic large - cycle and standardize the competition order of the new energy vehicle industry [2]

Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided Core Viewpoints - The supply of polysilicon enterprises has generally increased, with some enterprises increasing production while others undergoing maintenance, and self - disciplined production cuts have not significantly affected capacity fluctuations. The demand may decline significantly due to the anti - involution meeting, but prices are gradually recovering. The production schedule of downstream PV modules has been reduced, and demand has weakened marginally. Silicon wafer enterprises' overall production decline is expected to end as profits stabilize, and cell enterprises also have production cut plans. The polysilicon demand side still faces great pressure. Last week's price increase gave most manufacturers a chance to turn losses into profits, but this is not normal, and most manufacturers will start a new round of hedging. Polysilicon inventory is at a high level. Currently, the downstream sales sentiment has improved, and overall production has increased. Pay attention to inventory data changes. The short - term market price is consolidating at a high level. Be vigilant against a rapid decline after the news hype is falsified. The polysilicon price continued to rise today, the main contract switched to 09, and trading volume continued to expand. Do not continue to chase high prices and can continue to arrange put options [2] Summary by Directory Futures Market - The main closing price of polysilicon is 45,700 yuan/ton, with a change of 2,755; the main position volume is 70,964 lots, a decrease of 819. The price difference between August and September for polysilicon is 235, a decrease of 115; the price difference between polysilicon and industrial silicon is 36,955 yuan/ton, an increase of 2,695 [2] Spot Market - The spot price of polysilicon is 45,500 yuan/ton, unchanged; the basis is 2,555 yuan/ton, a decrease of 475. The weekly average price of photovoltaic - grade polysilicon is 4.94 US dollars/kg, an increase of 0.72. The average prices of cauliflower - shaped, dense, and re - fed polysilicon are 30 yuan/kg, 36 yuan/kg, and 33 yuan/kg respectively, all unchanged [2] Upstream Situation - The main contract closing price of industrial silicon is 8,745 yuan/ton, an increase of 60; the spot price is 9,200 yuan/ton, an increase of 50. The monthly output of industrial silicon is 305,200 tons, an increase of 5,500. The monthly export volume is 52,919.65 tons, a decrease of 12,197.89 tons; the monthly import volume is 2,211.36 tons, an increase of 71.51 tons. The total social inventory is 552,000 tons, an increase of 10,000 tons [2] Industry Situation - The monthly output of polysilicon is 95,000 tons, a decrease of 1,000 tons; the monthly import volume is 793 tons, a decrease of 161 tons. The weekly spot price of imported polysilicon materials in China is 5.04 US dollars/kg, an increase of 0.14; the monthly average import price is 2.19 US dollars/ton, a decrease of 0.14 [2] Downstream Situation - The monthly output of solar cells is 70,569,000 kilowatts, a decrease of 1,359,000 kilowatts. The average price of solar cells is 0.82 RMB/W, an increase of 0.01. The monthly export volume of PV modules is 103,399,980 pieces, an increase of 19,610,660 pieces; the monthly import volume is 12,098,490 pieces, a decrease of 8,021,950 pieces, and the monthly average import price is 0.33 US dollars/piece, an increase of 0.04. The PV industry's comprehensive price index (SPI) for polysilicon is 22.29, an increase of 0.62 [2] Industry News - At the Third Chain Expo Guangdong International Supply Chain Cooperation Conference on July 16th, Zhuang Lecong, a second - level inspector of the Guangdong Provincial Department of Industry and Information Technology, said that Guangdong Province will focus on industries, seize opportunities, and accelerate the construction of a modern industrial system supported by advanced manufacturing. It will transform and upgrade traditional industries, develop industries such as embodied robots, and innovate and develop new energy storage and PV industries [2]

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. 2. Core Viewpoints - Recent resistance in raw material butadiene price support has weakened the cost support for cis - butadiene rubber. With the restart of most cis - butadiene rubber maintenance devices in mid - to - late July, supply is expected to increase. This week, under the boost of macro - sentiment, the mainstream supply price rose significantly, leading to a decrease in the inventory of cis - butadiene rubber production enterprises and a slight increase in trader inventory. After some devices restart next week, domestic supply is expected to increase, while downstream price - pressing procurement and wait - and - see sentiment may drive up production enterprise inventory. - Last week, the capacity utilization rates of domestic tire enterprises varied. The production of semi - steel tire enterprises that had maintenance at the beginning of the month gradually recovered, pulling up the overall capacity utilization rate of tire enterprises. The maintenance of individual all - steel tire enterprises slightly dragged down the all - steel tire capacity utilization rate. This week, the production of maintenance enterprises will return to normal, and there is room for a restorative increase in capacity utilization, which will drive up the overall capacity utilization rate of tire enterprises. - The br2509 contract is expected to fluctuate in the range of 11,300 - 11,800 in the short term [2]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Futures Market - The closing price of the main contract for synthetic rubber was 11,570 yuan/ton, up 45 yuan/ton; the main contract position was 18,411, down 2,292. - The 8 - 9 spread of synthetic rubber was 25 yuan/ton, down 50 yuan/ton; the total warehouse receipt quantity of butadiene rubber was 2,100 tons, unchanged. - The mainstream price of cis - butadiene rubber (BR9000, Qilu Petrochemical) in Shandong was 11,600 yuan/ton; the mainstream price of cis - butadiene rubber (BR9000, Daqing Petrochemical) in Shandong was 11,500 yuan/ton, down 50 yuan/ton; the mainstream price of cis - butadiene rubber (BR9000, Daqing Petrochemical) in Shanghai was 11,550 yuan/ton, unchanged; the mainstream price of cis - butadiene rubber (BR9000, Maoming Petrochemical) in Guangdong was 11,600 yuan/ton, unchanged [2]. 3.2 Spot Market - The basis of synthetic rubber was 30 yuan/ton, down 45 yuan/ton. - Brent crude oil was 68.52 US dollars/barrel, down 0.19 US dollars/barrel; WTI crude oil was 66.38 US dollars/barrel, down 0.14 US dollars/barrel. - Naphtha CFR Japan was 581.38 US dollars/ton, down 2.37 US dollars/ton; Northeast Asian ethylene price was 820 US dollars/ton, unchanged; the intermediate price of butadiene CFR China was 1,060 US dollars/ton, down 10 US dollars/ton; the market price of butadiene in the Shandong market was 9,300 yuan/ton, down 100 yuan/ton [2]. 3.3 Upstream Situation - The weekly butadiene production capacity was 14.78 million tons/week, unchanged; the weekly capacity utilization rate of butadiene was 68.89%, down 2.02 percentage points. - The port inventory of butadiene was 23,600 tons, up 1,270 tons; the operating rate of Shandong local refineries' atmospheric and vacuum distillation units was 46.14%, up 1.17 percentage points. - The monthly output of cis - butadiene rubber was 122,500 tons, down 16,900 tons; the weekly capacity utilization rate of cis - butadiene rubber was 65.54%, down 1.44 percentage points. - The weekly production profit of cis - butadiene rubber was - 526 yuan/ton, down 362 yuan/ton; the weekly social inventory of cis - butadiene rubber was 32,800 tons, down 400 tons; the weekly manufacturer inventory of cis - butadiene rubber was 26,500 tons, up 150 tons; the weekly trader inventory of cis - butadiene rubber was 6,270 tons, down 530 tons [2]. 3.4 Downstream Situation - The operating rate of domestic semi - steel tires was 72.92%, up 2.51 percentage points; the operating rate of domestic all - steel tires was 64.56%, up 0.81 percentage points. - The monthly output of all - steel tires was 800,000 pieces; the monthly output of semi - steel tires was 5,523,000 pieces, up 108,000 pieces. - The inventory days of all - steel tires in Shandong were 40.67 days, up 0.22 days; the inventory days of semi - steel tires in Shandong were 45.76 days, down 0.72 days [2]. 3.5 Industry News - As of July 16, 2025 (Week 29), the inventory of high - cis cis - butadiene rubber sample enterprises in China was 32,300 tons, down 500 tons from the previous period, a month - on - month decrease of 1.59%. - As of July 10, the capacity utilization rate of semi - steel tire sample enterprises in China was 65.79%, a month - on - month increase of 1.66 percentage points and a year - on - year decrease of 14.25 percentage points; the capacity utilization rate of all - steel tire sample enterprises in China was 61.11%, a month - on - month decrease of 0.42 percentage points and a year - on - year increase of 1.55 percentage points. The resumption of production of semi - steel tire enterprises that had maintenance at the beginning of the month boosted the overall capacity utilization rate of tire sample enterprises, while the maintenance of individual all - steel tire sample enterprises dragged down the all - steel tire capacity utilization rate. - In June 2025, China's heavy - truck market sold about 92,000 vehicles (wholesale, including exports and new energy), a month - on - month increase of 4% from May and a year - on - year increase of about 29%. From January to June 2025, the cumulative sales of China's heavy - truck market were about 533,300 vehicles, a year - on - year increase of about 6% [2].

为主。建议短期逢高试空交易。 研究员: 张昕 期货从业资格号F03109641 期货投资咨询从业证书号Z0018457 | 项目类别 | 数据指标 | 最新 | 环比 数据指标 | 最新 | 环比 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 期货盘面 | 期货主力合约收盘价:生猪(日,元/吨) | 14060 | 50 主力合约持仓量:生猪(日,手) | 64811 | -4190 | | | 仓单数量:生猪(日,手) | 444 | 0 期货前20名持仓:净买单量:生猪(日,手) | -17151 | -152 | | 现货价格 | 生猪价 河南 驻马店(日,元/吨) | 14400 | -100 生猪价 吉林 四平(日,元/吨) | 14200 | -100 | | | 生猪价 广东 云浮(日,元/吨) | 15700 | -400 生猪主力基差(日,元/吨) | 340 | -150 | | 上游情况 | 生猪存栏(月,万头) | 41731 | -1012 生猪存栏:能繁母猪(月,万头) | 4042 | 4 | | 产业情况 | CPI:当月同比(月,%) | ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core View of the Report - SH2509 shows a volatile and slightly upward trend, closing at 2484 yuan/ton. The supply side has seen the return of previously减产 and shutdown facilities, with the caustic soda capacity utilization rate increasing by 2.2% to 82.6%. On the demand side, last week the alumina operating rate increased by 1.72% to 83.28%, and the average alumina profit is 300.3 yuan/ton. This week, the viscose staple fiber operating rate increased by 6.75% to 84.55%, and the printing and dyeing operating rate remained stable at 58.9%. In terms of inventory, this week the liquid caustic soda factory inventory increased by 2.56% to 38.39 tons, with little inventory pressure. The planned maintenance capacity of caustic soda in July has decreased. Recently, the downstream operating rate of liquid chlorine has increased, and the inverted price of liquid chlorine in Shandong has been alleviated, which has repaired the chlor-alkali profit, opening up the room for the increase of the caustic soda operating rate. The non-aluminum off-season demand is weak, and the downstream mainly purchases on a rigid basis. In the short term, SH2509 is expected to show a volatile trend, and the daily K-line should pay attention to the support around 2420 and the pressure around 2550 [3]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Futures Market - The main closing price of caustic soda is 2484 yuan/ton, with a month-on-month increase of 18; the futures holding volume is 247,813 lots, with a month-on-month decrease of 11,994; the net holding volume of the top 20 futures is -4,279 lots, with a month-on-month increase of 8,873; the futures trading volume is 489,252 lots, with a month-on-month decrease of 272,960. The closing price of the January contract is 2471 yuan/ton, with a month-on-month increase of 20; the closing price of the May contract is 2532 yuan/ton, with a month-on-month increase of 19 [3]. 3.2 Spot Market - The price of 32% ion-exchange membrane caustic soda in Shandong is 840 yuan/ton, with no change; in Jiangsu, it is 910 yuan/ton, with no change. The converted price of 32% caustic soda in Shandong is 2625 yuan/ton, with no change; the basis is 159 yuan/ton, with a month-on-month increase of 46 [3]. 3.3 Upstream Situation - The mainstream price of raw salt in Shandong is 210 yuan/ton, with no change; in the Northwest, it is 220 yuan/ton, with no change. The price of steam coal is 636 yuan/ton, with no change [3]. 3.4 Industry Situation - The mainstream price of liquid chlorine in Shandong is -350 yuan/ton, with a month-on-month decrease of 50; in Jiangsu, it is -75 yuan/ton, with a month-on-month decrease of 25.5 [3]. 3.5 Downstream Situation - The spot price of viscose staple fiber is 12,940 yuan/ton, with no change; the spot price of alumina is 3150 yuan/ton, with no change [3]. 3.6 Industry News - From July 11th to 17th, the average capacity utilization rate of Chinese caustic soda sample enterprises with a capacity of 200,000 tons and above was 82.7%, a month-on-month increase of 2.3%. As of July 17th, the factory inventory of fixed liquid caustic soda sample enterprises with a capacity of 200,000 tons and above nationwide was 383,900 tons (wet tons), a month-on-month increase of 2.56% and a year-on-year increase of 1.78% [3].

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No investment rating is provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoint PVC price is under pressure due to weak supply - demand situation after the digestion of previous macro - positive factors. V2509 is expected to pay attention to the support around 4870 yuan/ton on the daily K - line [3]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Futures Market - The closing price of PVC futures is 4955 yuan/ton, up 21 yuan; the trading volume is 777,706 lots, down 41,330 lots; the open interest is 966,325 lots, down 16,216 lots [3]. - The long position of the top 20 futures holders is 790,748 lots, down 4,809 lots; the short position is 806,539 lots, down 8,301 lots; the net long position is - 15,791 lots, up 3,492 lots [3]. 3.2 Spot Market - In the East China region, the price of ethylene - based PVC is 5025 yuan/ton, unchanged; the price of calcium - carbide - based PVC is 4855.38 yuan/ton, down 13.08 yuan [3]. - In the South China region, the price of ethylene - based PVC is 4960 yuan/ton, down 45 yuan; the price of calcium - carbide - based PVC is 4863.75 yuan/ton, down 42.5 yuan [3]. - The CIF price of PVC in China is 700 US dollars/ton, unchanged; the CIF price in Southeast Asia is 660 US dollars/ton, unchanged; the FOB price in Northwest Europe is 750 US dollars/ton, unchanged [3]. - The basis of PVC is - 94 yuan/ton, up 11 yuan [3]. 3.3 Upstream Situation - The mainstream average price of calcium carbide in Central China is 2650 yuan/ton, unchanged; in North China is 2621.67 yuan/ton, unchanged; in Northwest China is 2388 yuan/ton, unchanged [3]. - The mainstream price of liquid chlorine in Inner Mongolia is - 350 yuan/ton, down 100 yuan [3]. - The CFR middle price of VCM in the Far East is 503 US dollars/ton, down 21 US dollars; in Southeast Asia is 548 US dollars/ton, down 16 US dollars [3]. - The CFR middle price of EDC in the Far East is 211 US dollars/ton, up 27 US dollars; in Southeast Asia is 219 US dollars/ton, up 31 US dollars [3]. 3.4 Industry Situation - The weekly operating rate of PVC is 76.97%, down 0.47 percentage points; the operating rate of calcium - carbide - based PVC is 79.21%, down 1.59 percentage points; the operating rate of ethylene - based PVC is 71.02%, up 2.48 percentage points [3]. - The total social inventory of PVC is 39.27 tons, up 1.96 tons; the inventory in East China is 34.98 tons, up 1.95 tons; the inventory in South China is 4.29 tons, up 0.01 tons [3]. 3.5 Downstream Situation - The national real estate climate index is 93.72, down 0.14 [3]. - The cumulative value of new housing construction area is 23,183.61 million square meters, up 5,347.77 million square meters; the cumulative value of real estate construction area is 625,019.54 million square meters, up 4,704.49 million square meters; the cumulative value of real estate development investment is 19154.81 billion yuan, up 4281.68 billion yuan [3]. 3.6 Option Market - The 20 - day historical volatility of PVC is 15.18%, up 0.06 percentage points; the 40 - day historical volatility is 14.89%, unchanged [3]. - The implied volatility of at - the - money put options and call options of PVC is 19.73%, down 0.95 percentage points [3]. 3.7 Industry News - On July 17, the spot exchange price of PVCSG5 in Changzhou remained stable at 4810 - 4890 yuan/ton [3]. - From July 5th to 11th, China's PVC capacity utilization rate was 76.97%, down 0.47 percentage points from the previous period [3]. - As of July 17, the large - sample statistical social inventory of PVC increased by 5.42% to 65.73 tons month - on - month, and decreased by 31.15% year - on - year [3]. 3.8 Supply - Demand and Cost Analysis - Supply: Last week, PVC capacity utilization rate decreased by 0.47% to 76.97%. In July, domestic PVC plants are under centralized maintenance. Yidongdongxing's 300,000 - ton plant is planned to stop for maintenance this week, and some previously shut - down plants will restart, with the capacity utilization rate expected to rise month - on - month. The trial operation of new plants of Bohua and Wanhua will increase the medium - and long - term supply pressure on the industry [3]. - Demand: It is the off - season for domestic downstream demand, and the demand in the Indian market is suppressed by the rainy season. The Indian BIS certification is postponed to mid - December, and the anti - dumping policy may be implemented this month [3]. - Cost: There is still uncertainty about calcium carbide production restrictions in Inner Mongolia. Due to the lifting of the ban on US ethane exports to China, domestic ethylene supply tends to be loose, and the cost of ethylene - based PVC may continue to decline in the short term [3].

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. 2. Core View of the Report The hot - rolled coil production remains at a relatively high level, the terminal demand has strong resilience, the inventory decreases while the apparent demand increases. Coupled with the positive policy expectations in the macro - aspect, it supports the hot - rolled coil futures to stop falling and rebound. Technically, for the HC2510 contract, the 1 - hour MACD indicator shows that DIFF and DEA are running above the 0 - axis, and the green column turns red. The operation suggestion is short - term long - biased trading, paying attention to rhythm and risk control [2]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Futures Market - HC main contract closing price is 3,292 yuan/ton, up 39 yuan; HC main contract position is 1,610,257 lots, up 60,284 lots [2]. - HC contract top 20 net position is - 14,016 lots, up 7,882 lots; HC10 - 1 contract spread is - 16 yuan/ton, up 2 yuan [2]. - HC Shanghai Futures Exchange warehouse receipt is 62,501 tons, unchanged; HC2510 - RB2510 contract spread is 159 yuan/ton, up 12 yuan [2]. 3.2 Spot Market - The price of 4.75 hot - rolled coils in Hangzhou, Guangzhou, and Wuhan is 3,330 yuan/ton, up 20 yuan, 30 yuan, and 20 yuan respectively; in Tianjin, it is 3,210 yuan/ton, up 10 yuan [2]. - HC main contract basis is 38 yuan/ton, down 19 yuan; Hangzhou hot - rolled coil - rebar spread is 60 yuan/ton, unchanged [2]. 3.3 Upstream Situation - The price of 61.5% PB iron ore fines at Qingdao Port is 769 yuan/wet ton, up 13 yuan; the price of Hebei quasi - first - grade metallurgical coke is 1,265 yuan/ton, unchanged [2]. - The price of 6 - 8mm scrap steel in Tangshan is 0 yuan/ton, down 2,210 yuan; the price of Hebei Q235 billet is 0 yuan/ton, down 2,970 yuan [2]. - Domestic iron ore port inventory is 13,765.89 tons, down 112.51 tons; sample coking plant coke inventory is 59.77 tons, down 1.94 tons [2]. - Sample steel mill coke inventory is 637.97 tons, up 0.42 tons; Hebei billet inventory is 103.62 tons, up 6.09 tons [2]. 3.4 Industry Situation - The blast furnace operating rate of 247 steel mills is 83.13%, down 0.31%; the blast furnace capacity utilization rate is 89.87%, down 0.40% [2]. - Sample steel mill hot - rolled coil production is 321.14 tons, down 2 tons; sample steel mill hot - rolled coil capacity utilization rate is 82.04%, down 0.51% [2]. - Sample steel mill hot - rolled coil factory inventory is 77.31 tons, down 0.5 tons; 33 - city hot - rolled coil social inventory is 265.6 tons, down 2.15 tons [2]. - Domestic crude steel production is 8,318 tons, down 336 tons; steel net export volume is 920.8 tons, down 89.2 tons [2]. - Automobile production is 2.7941 million vehicles, up 0.1456 million vehicles; automobile sales is 2.9045 million vehicles, up 0.2181 million vehicles [2]. 3.5 Downstream Situation - Air - conditioner production is 2,838.31 million units, down 109.69 million units; household refrigerator production is 904.74 million units, up 53.74 million units [2]. - Household washing machine production is 950.79 million units, up 9.59 million units [2]. 3.6 Industry News - On July 17, Mysteel reported that the actual hot - rolled coil production was 321.14 tons, a week - on - week decrease of 2 tons; the steel mill inventory was 77.31 tons, a week - on - week decrease of 0.5 tons; the social inventory was 265.6 tons, a week - on - week decrease of 2.15 tons; the total inventory was 342.91 tons, a week - on - week decrease of 2.65 tons; the apparent demand was 323.79 tons, a week - on - week increase of 1.28 tons [2]. - According to the Passenger Car Association, from July 1 - 13, the retail sales of the national passenger car market were 0.571 million vehicles, a year - on - year increase of 7% and a month - on - month decrease of 5%. The cumulative retail sales this year were 11.473 million vehicles, a year - on - year increase of 11% [2].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided 2. Core View of the Report - Short - term LLDP E continues to face a situation of weak supply and demand, and L2509 is expected to fluctuate with oil prices. The daily K - line should focus on the support around 7160 and the resistance around 7260. [2] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Futures Market - The closing price of the main futures contract for polyethylene is 7215 yuan/ton, with a change of 1. The closing price of the January contract is 7235 yuan/ton, up 10; the closing price of the May contract is 7209 yuan/ton, up 9; the closing price of the September contract is 7215 yuan/ton, up 1. [2] - The trading volume is 181,546 hands, down 22,735; the open interest is 434,235 hands, down 2621. [2] - The spread between the January and May contracts is 26. [2] - The long position of the top 20 futures holders is 359,889 hands, up 1289; the short position is 401,569 hands, down 607; the net long position is - 41,680 hands, up 1896. [2] 3.2 Spot Market - The average price of LLDPE (7042) in North China is 7198.7 yuan/ton, down 7.39; in East China, it is 7301.22 yuan/ton, down 17.8. [2] 3.3 Basis - The basis is - 16.3, down 8.39. [2] 3.4 Upstream Situation - The FOB mid - price of naphtha in Singapore is 62.75 US dollars/barrel, down 0.13; the CFR mid - price of naphtha in Japan is 581.38 US dollars/ton, down 2.37. [2] - The CFR mid - price of ethylene in Southeast Asia is 831 US dollars/ton, unchanged; in Northeast Asia, it is 821 US dollars/ton, unchanged. [2] 3.5 Industry Situation - The national petrochemical PE operating rate is 77.79%, down 1.67. [2] 3.6 Downstream Situation - The operating rate of polyethylene (PE) packaging film is 48.07%, down 0.37; the operating rate of PE pipes is 28%, unchanged; the operating rate of PE agricultural film is 12.63%, up 0.54. [2] 3.7 Option Market - The 20 - day historical volatility of polyethylene is 11.41%, down 0.3; the 40 - day historical volatility is 12.54%, unchanged. [2] - The implied volatility of at - the - money put options is 12.05%, up 0.04; the implied volatility of at - the - money call options is 12.06%, up 0.04. [2] 3.8 Industry News - From July 11th to 17th, China's total polyethylene production was 609,100 tons, up 0.52% from last week. [2] - From July 4th to 10th, the average operating rate of China's polyethylene downstream products decreased by 0.18% compared with the previous period. [2] - As of July 16th, the inventory of Chinese polyethylene production enterprises was 529,300 tons, up 7.34% from the previous period; as of July 11th, the social inventory of polyethylene was 536,600 tons, up 3.68% from the previous period. [2] 3.9 Viewpoint Summary - In the short term, the supply - demand situation of LLDPE remains weak, and L2509 is expected to fluctuate with oil prices. [2] - In July, there are many PE maintenance devices. This week, the production and capacity utilization rate are expected to decline. [2] - ExxonMobil and Jilin Petrochemical's new devices have production expectations, which may increase the industry supply pressure in the medium - to - long term. [2] - The downstream off - season continues, and the downstream operating rate is expected to maintain a narrow downward trend. [2] - Recently, international oil prices have been weak, weakening cost support. [2]