Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided on the industry investment rating. 2. Core View of the Report The global natural rubber production areas are gradually opening for tapping. There are still weather disturbances in Yunnan, with firm raw material purchase prices. In Hainan, the tapping operations are gradually resuming, but the supply is still lower than the same period in previous years. The total spot inventory at Qingdao Port has slightly increased, with the bonded warehouse continuing to reduce inventory and the general trade inventory increasing at a narrowing rate. The capacity utilization rate of domestic tire enterprises decreased last week, but this week, as the enterprise maintenance ends, production will gradually recover, which will drive up the overall capacity utilization rate. The ru2509 contract is expected to fluctuate in the range of 13,800 - 14,200 yuan/ton, and the nr2508 contract is expected to fluctuate in the range of 11,900 - 12,200 yuan/ton [2]. 3. Summary by Directory Futures Market - The closing price of the main Shanghai rubber contract was 13,985 yuan/ton, with a daily increase of 15 yuan/ton; the 9 - 1 spread was -875 yuan/ton, with a daily increase of 20 yuan/ton. The closing price of the main 20 - number rubber contract was 12,070 yuan/ton, with a daily increase of 30 yuan/ton; the 8 - 9 spread was -10 yuan/ton, with a daily decrease of 20 yuan/ton. - The spread between Shanghai rubber and 20 - number rubber was 1,915 yuan/ton, with a daily decrease of 15 yuan/ton. The position of the main Shanghai rubber contract was 152,867 lots, with a daily decrease of 793 lots; the position of the main 20 - number rubber contract was 30,922 lots, with a daily decrease of 1,750 lots. - The net position of the top 20 in Shanghai rubber was -20,424 lots, with a daily increase of 969 lots; the net position of the top 20 in 20 - number rubber was -6,213 lots, with a daily decrease of 1,790 lots. The Shanghai rubber exchange warehouse receipts were 188,790 tons, with a daily decrease of 30 tons; the 20 - number rubber exchange warehouse receipts were 34,272 tons, with a daily increase of 1,512 tons [2]. Spot Market - The price of state - owned full - latex in the Shanghai market was 13,950 yuan/ton, with a daily decrease of 50 yuan/ton; the price of Vietnamese 3L was 14,450 yuan/ton, unchanged. The price of Thai standard STR20 was 1,715 US dollars/ton, with a daily decrease of 5 US dollars/ton; the price of Malaysian standard SMR20 was 1,715 US dollars/ton, with a daily decrease of 5 US dollars/ton. - The price of Thai RMB mixed rubber was 13,850 yuan/ton, unchanged; the price of Malaysian RMB mixed rubber was 13,800 yuan/ton, unchanged. The price of Qilu Petrochemical's styrene - butadiene 1502 was 11,700 yuan/ton, unchanged; the price of Qilu Petrochemical's cis - butadiene BR9000 was 11,400 yuan/ton, unchanged. - The Shanghai rubber basis was -35 yuan/ton, with a daily decrease of 65 yuan/ton; the non - standard product basis of the main Shanghai rubber contract was -120 yuan/ton, with a daily increase of 35 yuan/ton. The price of 20 - number rubber in the Qingdao market was 12,228 yuan/ton, with a daily decrease of 4 yuan/ton; the basis of the main 20 - number rubber contract was 158 yuan/ton, with a daily decrease of 34 yuan/ton [2]. Upstream Situation - The market reference price of Thai raw rubber (smoked sheet) was 65.2 Thai baht/kg, with a daily decrease of 0.35 Thai baht/kg; the market reference price of Thai raw rubber (film) was 62 Thai baht/kg, with a daily decrease of 0.52 Thai baht/kg. The market reference price of Thai raw rubber (glue) was 54.5 Thai baht/kg, unchanged; the market reference price of Thai raw rubber (cup lump) was 47.8 Thai baht/kg, with a daily decrease of 0.65 Thai baht/kg. - The theoretical production profit of RSS3 was 152.4 US dollars/ton, with a daily increase of 15 US dollars/ton; the theoretical production profit of STR20 was 6.6 US dollars/ton, with a daily decrease of 5.8 US dollars/ton. - The monthly import volume of technically specified natural rubber was 148,200 tons, with a decrease of 38,600 tons; the monthly import volume of mixed rubber was 222,300 tons, with a decrease of 26,400 tons [2]. Downstream Situation - The weekly full - steel tire operating rate was 63.75%, with a decrease of 1.89 percentage points; the weekly semi - steel tire operating rate was 70.41%, with a decrease of 7.64 percentage points. - The inventory days of full - steel tires in Shandong at the end of the period were 40.45 days, with a decrease of 1.48 days; the inventory days of semi - steel tires in Shandong at the end of the period were 46.48 days, with a decrease of 1.67 days. - The monthly output of full - steel tires was 12.62 million pieces, with an increase of 800,000 pieces; the monthly output of semi - steel tires was 55.23 million pieces, with an increase of 1.08 million pieces [2]. Option Market - The 20 - day historical volatility of the underlying was 17.08%, with a daily decrease of 0.1 percentage points; the 40 - day historical volatility of the underlying was 21.63%, with a daily decrease of 1.2 percentage points. - The implied volatility of at - the - money call options was 24.25%, with a daily increase of 1.16 percentage points; the implied volatility of at - the - money put options was 24.25%, with a daily increase of 1.16 percentage points [2]. Industry News - From July 6th to July 12th, 2025, the rainfall in the main natural rubber producing areas in Southeast Asia decreased compared with the previous period. North of the equator, it was mainly concentrated in sporadic areas such as southern Cambodia and southern Thailand, and the impact on tapping decreased slightly. South of the equator, it was mainly distributed in southeastern Indonesia, and the impact on tapping increased slightly. - As of July 6th, 2025, the total inventory of natural rubber in bonded and general trade in Qingdao was 632,400 tons, a week - on - week increase of 300 tons, an increase of 0.05%. The bonded area inventory was 78,800 tons, a decrease of 2.36%; the general trade inventory was 553,600 tons, an increase of 0.40%. - In June 2025, China's heavy - truck market sold about 92,000 vehicles (wholesale basis, including exports and new energy), a month - on - month increase of 4% and a year - on - year increase of about 29%. From January to June 2025, the cumulative sales of China's heavy - truck market were about 533,300 vehicles, a year - on - year increase of about 6% [2].

| | | 尿素产业日报 2025-07-08 | 项目类别 | 数据指标 | 最新 | 环比 数据指标 | 最新 | 环比 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 期货市场 | 郑州尿素主力合约收盘价(日,元/吨) | 1763 | 15 郑州尿素9-1价差(日,元/吨) | 40 | 4 849 | | | 郑州尿素主力合约持仓量(日,手) | 214386 | 1128 郑州尿素前20名净持仓 | -22144 | | | | 郑州尿素交易所仓单(日,张) | 2607 | 1330 | | | | 现货市场 | 河北(日,元/吨) | 1780 | -10 河南(日,元/吨) | 1810 | 0 | | | 江苏(日,元/吨) | 1840 | 20 山东(日,元/吨) | 1820 | 0 | | | 安徽(日,元/吨) | 1840 | 10 郑州尿素主力合约基差(日,元/吨) | 57 | -15 | | | FOB波罗的海(日,美元/吨) | 395 | 0 FOB中国主港(日,美元/吨) | 382.5 | 0 | | 产业情况 | 港口库存(周 ...

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating The report does not mention the industry investment rating. 2. Core View of the Report The current fundamentals continue the weak recovery trend. After the cross - quarter, the easing of capital pressure kicks off the seasonal easing window, and the overall environment is favorable for the bond market. However, with the central bank's reserve requirement ratio cut and interest rate cut expectations not dispelled, the downward space for yields is limited. The bond market is expected to fluctuate strongly, and it is recommended to buy on dips [2]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Futures Disk - T, TF, TS, and TL main contract closing prices decreased by 0.08%, 0.08%, 0.03%, and 0.22% respectively, while trading volumes increased by 845, 490, 434, and 2498 respectively [2]. 3.2 Futures Spreads - Different contract spreads show various changes, such as the TL2512 - 2509 spread decreased by 0.02, and the T2512 - 2509 spread increased by 0.00 [2]. 3.3 Futures Positions - The positions of T, TF, TS, and TL main contracts and the long - short positions of the top 20 show different changes, with the net short positions of most contracts decreasing [2]. 3.4 Top Two CTD (Clean Prices) - The clean prices of multiple CTD bonds decreased, such as the 220010.IB (6y) decreased by 0.1041 [2]. 3.5 Active Treasury Bonds - Yields of 1 - 7y active treasury bonds increased by 0.15 - 0.90bp, while the 10y yield decreased by 0.10bp [2]. 3.6 Short - term Interest Rates - The silver - pledged overnight interest rate decreased by 7.49bp, and the silver - pledged 7 - day interest rate increased by 2.00bp [2]. 3.7 LPR Interest Rates - The 1y and 5y LPR interest rates remained unchanged [2]. 3.8 Open Market Operations - The issuance scale was 690 billion, the maturity scale was 1310 billion, and the interest rate was 1.4% for 7 days [2]. 3.9 Industry News - The central bank is actively researching and promoting other measures for the opening - up of the bond market; the Chinese Ministry of Finance is willing to deepen BRICS financial cooperation; the US will impose tariffs on 14 countries and extend the tariff negotiation suspension period to August 1st [2]. 3.10 Key Data to Focus On - On July 9th at 22:00, the US May wholesale sales month - on - month rate; on July 10th at 02:00, the Fed will release the minutes of the monetary policy meeting, and at 20:30, the US initial jobless claims for the week ending July 5th [3].

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided on the industry investment rating. 2. Core Viewpoints - Due to the weak domestic raw material market and continuous shipment pressure, the overall inventory of domestic cis - butadiene rubber enterprises decreased slightly last week, but the downstream shipment pressure remained high, and the inventory of production enterprises and trading enterprises is expected to increase slightly [2]. - Last week, the capacity utilization rate of domestic tire enterprises decreased month - on - month. Some semi - steel tire enterprises had maintenance arrangements for 4 - 11 days, and some enterprises reduced production, dragging down the overall capacity utilization rate. Most tire enterprises' production schedules were stable, and the capacity utilization rate decreased slightly. This week, as enterprise maintenance ends, production will resume, which will boost the overall capacity utilization rate of tire enterprises. The BR2508 contract is expected to fluctuate in the range of 11,000 - 11,600 in the short term [2]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Futures Market - The closing price of the main contract of synthetic rubber was 11,305 yuan/ton, up 305 yuan/ton; the position of the main contract was 28,033, down 2,243; the 8 - 9 spread of synthetic rubber was 85 yuan/ton, up 15 yuan/ton; the total warehouse receipt quantity of butadiene rubber was 1,600 tons, up 500 tons [2]. 3.2 Spot Market - The mainstream price of cis - butadiene rubber (BR9000) from different petrochemical companies in different regions decreased, with a decline of 50 - 100 yuan/ton; the basis of synthetic rubber was 145 yuan/ton, down 305 yuan/ton [2]. - The price of Brent crude oil was 69.58 dollars/barrel, up 1.28 dollars/barrel; the price of WTI crude oil was 67.93 dollars/barrel, up 1.43 dollars/barrel; the price of Northeast Asian ethylene was 820 dollars/ton, down 30 dollars/ton; the price of naphtha (CFR Japan) was 577 dollars/ton, down 1.75 dollars/ton; the intermediate price of butadiene (CFR China) was 1,060 dollars/ton, unchanged; the mainstream price of butadiene in the Shandong market was 8,850 yuan/ton, unchanged [2]. 3.3 Upstream Situation - The weekly capacity of butadiene was 14.78 million tons/week, unchanged; the capacity utilization rate of butadiene was 70.91%, up 1.16 percentage points; the port inventory of butadiene was 22,330 tons, down 5,120 tons; the operating rate of Shandong local refineries' atmospheric and vacuum distillation units was 44.97%, down 0.05 percentage points [2]. - The monthly output of cis - butadiene rubber was 122,500 tons, down 16,900 tons; the weekly capacity utilization rate of cis - butadiene rubber was 66.98%, down 1.56 percentage points; the weekly production profit of cis - butadiene rubber was - 164 yuan/ton, up 414 yuan/ton; the social inventory of cis - butadiene rubber was 33,200 tons, down 900 tons; the manufacturer inventory of cis - butadiene rubber was 26,350 tons, down 1,300 tons; the trader inventory of cis - butadiene rubber was 6,800 tons, up 430 tons [2]. 3.4 Downstream Situation - The operating rate of domestic semi - steel tires was 70.41%, down 7.64 percentage points; the operating rate of domestic all - steel tires was 63.75%, down 1.89 percentage points; the monthly output of all - steel tires was 12.62 million pieces, up 800,000 pieces; the monthly output of semi - steel tires was 55.23 million pieces, up 1.08 million pieces; the inventory days of all - steel tires in Shandong were 40.45 days, down 1.48 days; the inventory days of semi - steel tires in Shandong were 46.48 days, down 1.67 days [2]. 3.5 Industry News - As of July 3, the inventory of high - cis cis - butadiene rubber sample enterprises in China was 33,200 tons, down 900 tons from the previous period, a month - on - month decrease of 2.56% [2]. - As of July 3, the capacity utilization rate of semi - steel tire sample enterprises in China was 64.13%, down 6.27 percentage points month - on - month and 15.85 percentage points year - on - year; the capacity utilization rate of all - steel tire sample enterprises was 61.53%, down 0.70 percentage points month - on - month and 0.96 percentage points year - on - year [2]. - In June 2025, the domestic heavy - truck market sold about 920,000 vehicles (wholesale, including exports and new energy), a month - on - month increase of 4% and a year - on - year increase of about 29%. From January to June 2025, the cumulative sales of the domestic heavy - truck market were about 5.333 million vehicles, a year - on - year increase of about 6% [2].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided in the given content 2. Core View of the Report - Summer cooling fruits flood the market, impacting apple demand and slowing down sales. After bagging, farmers are more willing to sell, leading to a weak adjustment in spot prices and dragging down futures prices. However, the current inventory is at a five - year low, strongly supporting prices, so the market is expected to move in a volatile manner. Continued attention should be paid to production [2] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Futures Market - The closing price of the apple futures main contract (daily, yuan/ton) is 7658, a decrease of 75. The closing price of the October contract (daily, yuan/ton) is also 7658, a decrease of 75. The main contract's open interest (daily, lots) is 89425, a decrease of 228. The number of warehouse receipts (daily, sheets) is 0. The net long positions of the top 20 futures holders (daily, lots) is 3179, a decrease of 2674 [2] 3.2 Spot Market - The spot price of apples in Shandong Yantai Qixia (paper - bagged, grade 80 and above, first - and second - grade farmer - supplied goods, daily, yuan/jin) is 4, a decrease of 0.1. The spot price in Shandong Yiyuan (paper - bagged, grade 75 and above, daily, yuan/jin) is 2.6, unchanged. The spot price in Gansu Jingning (paper - bagged, grade 75 and above, daily, yuan/jin) is 4.5, unchanged. The spot price in Shaanxi Luochuan (paper - bagged, grade 70 and above, semi - commodities, daily, yuan/jin) is 4, a decrease of 0.2 [2] 3.3 Upstream Situation - The national apple orchard area (annual, thousand hectares) is 1955.77, a decrease of 19.58. The national apple production (annual, ten thousand tons) is 5128.51, an increase of 168.34 [2] 3.4 Industry Situation - The wholesale price of apples (weekly, yuan/kg) is 9.73, an increase of 0.1. The average wholesale price of Fuji apples (weekly, yuan/kg) is 9.54, an increase of 0.03. The total national apple cold - storage inventory (weekly, ten thousand tons) is 99.31, a decrease of 7.6. The storage capacity ratio of Shandong apples (weekly) is 0.14, a decrease of 0.01. The storage capacity ratio of Shaanxi apples (weekly) is 0.06, a decrease of 0.01. The monthly export volume of apples (tons) is 50000, a decrease of 20000. The monthly export value of apples (ten thousand US dollars) is 5152.5, a decrease of 2552.9. The monthly import value of fresh and dried fruits and nuts (ten thousand US dollars) is 2201050.17. The profit of first - and second - grade paper - bagged apple 80 storage merchants (weekly, yuan/jin) is 0.8, a decrease of 0.1 [2] 3.5 Downstream Situation - The average wholesale price of tangerines (weekly, yuan/kg) is 8.84, an increase of 0.16. The wholesale price of Ya pears (weekly, yuan/kg) is 6.68, a decrease of 0.04. The wholesale price of bananas (weekly, yuan/kg) is 6.47, a decrease of 0.03. The wholesale price of watermelons (weekly, yuan/kg) is 3.96, a decrease of 0.02. The average daily number of trucks arriving in the morning at the Jiangmen wholesale market in Guangdong (weekly, vehicles) is 7.8, unchanged. The average daily number of trucks arriving in the morning at the Xiaqiao wholesale market in Guangdong (weekly, vehicles) is 20, an increase of 1.2 [2] 3.6 Option Market - The implied volatility of at - the - money call options for apples (daily, %) is 17.18, an increase of 0.45. The implied volatility of at - the - money put options for apples (daily, %) is 17.17, an increase of 0.46 [2] 3.7 Industry News - On July 8, 2025, apple trading remained sluggish. Downstream merchants were less enthusiastic about restocking, clearly bargaining, and the sales speed was slow. In both western and Shandong production areas, the prices of stored apples continued to adjust weakly. According to Mysteel's preliminary estimate based on bagging volume survey data, the national apple production is expected to be 3736.64 tons, an increase of 85.93 tons or 2.35% compared to the 2024 - 2025 production season. As of July 2, 2025, the national main - producing area apple cold - storage inventory was 99.31 tons, a decrease of 7.60 tons from the previous week. The sales speed in the off - season was slow, slower than the previous week and also slower year - on - year. The storage capacity ratio in the Shandong production area was 13.98%, a decrease of 0.78% from the previous week, and the inventory clearance speed was slower year - on - year. There were not many merchants in the Shandong production area, and they still preferred cost - effective supplies, with overall slow sales. The storage capacity ratio in the Shaanxi production area was 6.43%, a decrease of 0.68% from the previous week, and the sales were slightly slower than the previous week. The trading in the Shaanxi production area was still concentrated in northern Shaanxi, and the rest of the production areas had cleared their inventories [2]

Report Information - Report Title: Sugar Industry Daily Report 2025 - 07 - 08 [1] - Researcher: Zhang Xin [2] - Futures Practitioner Qualification Number: F03109641 [2] - Futures Investment Consulting Practitioner Certificate Number: Z0018457 [2] Investment Rating - Not provided Core View - International supply is expected to be loose due to the improved prospects of major Asian sugar - producing countries with the arrival of the monsoon season and the year - on - year increase in Brazil's export volume, which suppresses raw sugar prices. In China, the price trends at home and abroad are diverging, the profit window for out - of - quota imports is open, and import pressure will be released, suppressing sugar prices. On the demand side, the summer consumption peak season brings certain support to prices. Overall, recent raw sugar fluctuations indirectly affect domestic sugar trends, but domestic demand is recovering and performing stronger than the external market. Later, both supply and demand will be strong, and price fluctuations will intensify. Attention should be paid to the arrival of imports and summer consumption [2] Summary by Directory Futures Market - The closing price of the sugar futures main contract is 5747 yuan/ton, down 7 yuan; the main contract position is 294975 hands, down 1089 hands; the warehouse receipt quantity is 23092 sheets, down 312 sheets; the net long position of the top 20 futures holders is - 38817 hands, down 2150 hands; the effective warehouse receipt forecast is 106 sheets, unchanged [2] Spot Market - The import processing estimated price (within quota) of Brazilian sugar is 4504 yuan/ton, up 186 yuan; that of Thai sugar is 4545 yuan/ton, up 177 yuan. The import estimated price of Brazilian sugar (out - of - quota, 50% tariff) is 5723 yuan/ton, up 243 yuan; that of Thai sugar is 5777 yuan/ton, up 232 yuan. The spot prices of white sugar in Kunming, Nanning, and Liuzhou are 5865 yuan/ton (down 10 yuan), 6020 yuan/ton (down 20 yuan), and 6120 yuan/ton (down 10 yuan) respectively [2] Upstream Situation - The national sugar - crop sown area is 1480 thousand hectares, up 60 thousand hectares; the sown area of sugar cane in Guangxi is 835.09 thousand hectares, down 12.86 thousand hectares [2] Industry Situation - The national cumulative sugar production is 1116.21 million tons, up 5.49 million tons; the cumulative sugar sales volume is 811.38 million tons, up 86.92 million tons; the industrial inventory of sugar is 304.83 million tons, down 81.43 million tons; the sugar sales rate is 72.69%, up 7.47 percentage points. The monthly import volume of sugar is 350000 tons, up 220000 tons; Brazil's monthly sugar export volume is 225.66 million tons, up 70.4 million tons [2] Downstream Situation - The cumulative year - on - year growth rate of refined sugar production is 16.7%, up 2.6 percentage points; the cumulative year - on - year growth rate of soft drink production is 3%, down 0.9 percentage points [2] Option Market - The implied volatility of the at - the - money call option for sugar is 8.29%, down 0.01 percentage point; that of the at - the - money put option is 8.3%, down 0.01 percentage point. The 20 - day historical volatility is 7.38%, up 0.07 percentage point; the 60 - day historical volatility is 7.83%, down 0.08 percentage point [2] Industry News - Brazil exported 3.359 million tons of sugar in June, a year - on - year increase of 5.24%. As of June in the 2025/26 sugar - crushing season, Brazil's cumulative sugar export volume was 7.1682 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of 9.09% [2]

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content Group 2: Report Core View - Macroscopically, Trump's tax letter will impose tariffs ranging from 25% to 40% on 14 countries such as Japan and South Korea starting August 1st, and the EU may be close to an agreement. Goldman Sachs has advanced the expected time for the Fed to cut interest rates by three months, possibly in September, with a terminal interest rate of 3% - 3.25%. Fundamentally, there is significant uncertainty about the resumption progress of tin mines in Myanmar's Wa State, and Thailand has banned the transit of tin mines from Myanmar, restricting tin ore import supply. The Bisie mine in Congo plans to resume production in phases, and currently, tin ore processing fees remain at historically low levels. On the smelting side, the Yunnan production area faces a combination of raw material shortages and cost pressures, while the waste recycling system in the Jiangxi production area is under pressure, and the operating rate remains at a low level. On the demand side, after the rush to install photovoltaic equipment ended, the operating rates of some producers decreased, and the electronics industry entered the off - season with a strong wait - and - see sentiment. Recently, tin prices have corrected, the spot premium has been maintained at 400 yuan/ton, and downstream purchasing enthusiasm at low prices has increased, leading to a slight decrease in domestic inventories. Overseas inventories continue to decline, LME cancelled warrants have increased, and the premium has risen. Technically, positions have decreased, and both long and short sides are cautious. Attention should be paid to the support of MA60, and the price has returned to the previous trading range. It is recommended to wait and see for now, with a reference range of 262,000 - 268,000 yuan/ton [3] Group 3: Summary by Related Catalogs 1. Futures Market - The closing price of the main futures contract of Shanghai tin was 263,520 yuan/ton, a decrease of 3,730 yuan; the price of LME 3 - month tin was 33,770 US dollars/ton, a decrease of 35 US dollars. The closing price difference between the August - September contracts of Shanghai tin was - 150 yuan/ton, a decrease of 70 yuan. The position of the main contract of Shanghai tin was 28,262 lots, a decrease of 2,457 lots. The net position of the top 20 futures was - 398 lots, an increase of 362 lots. The total inventory of LME tin was 2,110 tons, a decrease of 55 tons. The inventory of tin in the Shanghai Futures Exchange was 7,198 tons, an increase of 243 tons. The cancelled warrants of LME tin were 640 tons, a decrease of 25 tons. The warehouse receipts of tin in the Shanghai Futures Exchange were 6,868 tons, an increase of 61 tons [3] 2. Spot Market - The spot price of SMM 1 tin was 264,700 yuan/ton, a decrease of 2,100 yuan; the spot price of 1 tin in the Yangtze River Non - ferrous Metal Market was 267,110 yuan/ton, a decrease of 710 yuan. The basis of the main contract of Shanghai tin was 3,280 yuan/ton, an increase of 3,230 yuan. The LME tin premium (0 - 3) was 22 US dollars/ton, an increase of 64 US dollars [3] 3. Upstream Situation - The import volume of tin ore and concentrates was 12,100 tons, a decrease of 2,900 tons. The average price of 40% tin concentrate was 255,300 yuan/ton, a decrease of 1,700 yuan; the processing fee of 40% tin concentrate was 10,500 yuan/ton, unchanged. The average price of 60% tin concentrate was 259,300 yuan/ton, a decrease of 1,700 yuan; the processing fee of 60% tin concentrate was 6,500 yuan/ton, unchanged [3] 4. Industry Situation - The monthly output of refined tin was 14,000 tons, a decrease of 1,600 tons; the import volume of refined tin was 3,762.32 tons, an increase of 143.24 tons [3] 5. Downstream Situation - The price of 60A solder bars in Gejiu was 173,170 yuan/ton, a decrease of 1,180 yuan. The cumulative output of tinplate (strip) was 1.6014 million tons, an increase of 144,500 tons. The export volume of tinplate was 140,700 tons, a decrease of 33,900 tons [3] 6. Industry News - Trump issued tariff letters to 14 countries, imposing a 25% tariff on imported goods from Japan and South Korea starting August 1st, 25% - 40% tariffs on countries such as Malaysia, South Africa, Indonesia, Myanmar, and Thailand, and an additional 10% tariff on any country that aligns with the anti - US policies of the BRICS countries. He also signed an executive order to extend the suspension period of reciprocal tariffs until August 1st. White House officials said that specific country tariffs would not be叠加 with industry tariffs. China has newly allocated 10 billion yuan in central budgetary investment to carry out a work - for - relief action to expand employment and increase income for key groups [3]

1. Report's Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - On July 8, the JM2509 contract closed at 843.5, up 0.84%. In the spot market, the price of Meng 5 raw coal rose by 6 yuan/ton. The overall capacity utilization rate of coking coal mines decreased, the clean coal inventory started to be destocked, and the cumulative import growth rate declined. The overall coal supply gradually recovered. Technically, the 4 - hour cycle K - line was above the 20 and 60 moving averages. It is recommended to treat it with a bullish - biased sideways approach [2]. - On July 8, the J2509 contract closed at 1424.5, up 0.14%. In the spot market, the fourth round of coke price cuts was implemented. The supply of raw materials gradually improved, and the hot metal output remained at a high level. The average loss per ton of coke for 30 independent coking plants nationwide was 52 yuan/ton this period. Technically, the 4 - hour cycle K - line was above the 20 and 60 moving averages. It is recommended to treat it with a bullish - biased sideways approach [2]. 3. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Futures Market - JM main contract closing price was 843.50 yuan/ton, up 8.50 yuan; J main contract closing price was 1424.50 yuan/ton, up 2.00 yuan [2]. - JM futures contract open interest was 778,353.00 lots, up 2,875.00 lots; J futures contract open interest was 56,385.00 lots, up 93.00 lots [2]. - Net open interest of the top 20 JM contracts was - 67,007.00 lots, up 10,788.00 lots; net open interest of the top 20 J contracts was - 3,751.00 lots, up 228.00 lots [2]. - The spread between JM1 - 9 contracts was 47.50 yuan/ton, down 6.00 yuan; the spread between J1 - 9 contracts was 46.00 yuan/ton, up 0.50 yuan [2]. - The number of JM warehouse receipts was 200.00, unchanged; the number of J warehouse receipts was 90.00, unchanged [2]. 3.2 Spot Market - The price of Meng 5 raw coal at Ganqimao Port was 745.00 yuan/ton, up 3.00 yuan; the price of Tangshan quasi - first - grade metallurgical coke was 1390.00 yuan/ton, unchanged [2]. - The price of Russian prime coking coal forward spot (CFR) was 115.00 US dollars/wet ton, unchanged; the price of Rizhao Port quasi - first - grade metallurgical coke was 1220.00 yuan/ton, unchanged [2]. - The price of Australian prime coking coal imported at Jingtang Port was 1240.00 yuan/ton, unchanged; the price of Tianjin Port first - grade metallurgical coke was 1320.00 yuan/ton, unchanged [2]. - The price of Shanxi - produced prime coking coal at Jingtang Port was 1340.00 yuan/ton; the price of Tianjin Port quasi - first - grade metallurgical coke was 1220.00 yuan/ton, unchanged [2]. - The price of medium - sulfur prime coking coal in Lingshi, Jinzhong, Shanxi was 930.00 yuan/ton, unchanged; the basis of J main contract was - 34.50 yuan/ton, down 2.00 yuan [2]. - The ex - factory price of coking coal produced in Wuhai, Inner Mongolia was 940.00 yuan/ton, unchanged; the basis of JM main contract was 86.50 yuan/ton, down 8.50 yuan [2]. 3.3 Upstream Situation - The raw coal inventory of 110 coal washing plants was 3.1217 million tons, down 91,100 tons; the clean coal inventory was 2.1498 million tons, down 168,900 tons [2]. - The operating rate of 110 coal washing plants was 59.72%, up 0.62 percentage points; the raw coal output was 40.3284 million tons, up 1.3978 million tons [2]. - The import volume of coal and lignite was 36.04 million tons, down 1.79 million tons; the daily average output of raw coal from 523 coking coal mines was 188,000 tons, up 3,000 tons [2]. - The inventory of imported coking coal at 16 ports was 5.2471 million tons, up 295,900 tons; the inventory of coke at 18 ports was 2.4202 million tons, down 98,700 tons [2]. - The total inventory of coking coal of all - sample independent coking enterprises was 8.4818 million tons, up 392,000 tons; the inventory of coke of all - sample independent coking enterprises was 1.021 million tons, down 109,300 tons [2]. - The coking coal inventory of 247 steel mills was 7.896 million tons, up 83,900 tons; the coke inventory of 247 steel mills was 6.3749 million tons, up 97,400 tons [2]. - The available days of coking coal for all - sample independent coking enterprises was 12.51 days, up 0.12 days; the available days of coke for 247 steel mills was 11.52 days, up 0.30 days [2]. - The import volume of coking coal was 7.3869 million tons, down 1.5065 million tons; the export volume of coke and semi - coke was 680,000 tons, up 130,000 tons [2]. - The output of coking coal was 40.7027 million tons, up 1.4411 million tons; the capacity utilization rate of independent coking enterprises was 73.17%, down 0.40 percentage points [2]. - The profit per ton of coke for independent coking plants was - 46.00 yuan/ton, down 23.00 yuan; the output of coke was 42.376 million tons, up 776,000 tons [2]. 3.4 Downstream Situation - The blast furnace operating rate of 247 steel mills was 83.44%, down 0.40 percentage points; the blast furnace iron - making capacity utilization rate of 247 steel mills was 90.27%, down 0.58 percentage points [2]. - The crude steel output was 86.545 million tons, up 526,000 tons [2]. 3.5 Industry News - On July 7, US President Trump signed an executive order to extend the so - called "reciprocal tariff" suspension period from July 9 to August 1 [2]. - As of July 7, Trump had issued new tariff rate threats to 14 countries, with Japan, South Korea, Kazakhstan, Malaysia, and Tunisia facing a 25% tariff rate [2]. - On July 6, Vietnam's anti - dumping duty on Chinese hot - rolled coils came into effect. From January to May 2025, China's exports of the涉案 hot - rolled coils to Vietnam decreased by 43.6% year - on - year to 2.307 million tons [2]. - As of the end of June, China's gold reserves were 73.9 million ounces (about 2,298.55 tons), up 70,000 ounces (about 2.18 tons) month - on - month, marking the eighth consecutive month of increase [2]. - US Secretary of State Rubio will visit Malaysia from July 8 to 12 to attend the ASEAN meeting, which will be his first visit to the Indo - Pacific region as the top US diplomat [2].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - Consumption is in the off - season, and the high inventory of old fruits suppresses the price to run weakly. The production area is in the fruit - setting period, and the current growth of jujube trees is good, but the yield is uncertain. Attention should be paid to the situation of the second - crop flowers and fruits [2] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Futures Market - The closing price of the main futures contract for jujube is 10,435 yuan/ton, a decrease of 15 yuan; the main contract position is 135,669 lots, a decrease of 679 lots. The net long position of the top 20 futures holders is - 10,779 lots, a decrease of 2,373 lots. The number of warehouse receipts is 8,684, a decrease of 15; the total valid warehouse receipt forecast is 1,954, an increase of 400 [2] 3.2 Spot Market - The unified price of Kashgar jujubes is 6 yuan/kg, unchanged; the wholesale price of first - class gray jujubes in Hebei is 4.3 yuan/jin, a decrease of 0.05 yuan. The unified price of Alar jujubes is 5.2 yuan/kg, unchanged; the wholesale price of first - class gray jujubes in Henan is 4.35 yuan/jin, unchanged. The unified price of Aksu jujubes is 4.8 yuan/kg, unchanged; the price of special - grade jujubes in Henan is 9.8 yuan/kg, unchanged. The price of special - grade jujubes in Hebei is 9.75 yuan/kg, a decrease of 0.02 yuan; the price of special - grade jujubes in Guangdong is 10.8 yuan/kg, an increase of 0.2 yuan. The price of first - class jujubes in Guangdong is 9.4 yuan/kg, an increase of 0.1 yuan [2] 3.3 Upstream Market - The annual jujube output is 6.069 million tons, an increase of 3.187 million tons; the planting area is 1.993 million hectares, a decrease of 41,000 hectares [2] 3.4 Industry Situation - The national jujube inventory is 10,520 tons, a decrease of 168 tons; the monthly jujube export volume is 2,229,227 kg, a decrease of 132,571 kg. The cumulative monthly jujube export volume is 15,350,567 kg, an increase of 2,229,227 kg [2] 3.5 Downstream Situation - The wholesale price of jujubes in Taiyuan Hexi Agricultural and Sideline Products Market in Shanxi Province is 20 yuan/kg, a decrease of 8 yuan. The cumulative quarterly sales volume of Hao Xiang Ni's jujubes is 36,480.43 tons, a decrease of 2,981.06 tons. The cumulative quarterly year - on - year jujube production of Hao Xiang Ni is 1.47%, a decrease of 34.59 percentage points [2] 3.6 Industry News - On July 8th, the temperature in Aksu was between 18 - 32°C, suitable for fruit - setting. Jujube farmers were actively managing their orchards, and the jujube trees were entering the physiological fruit - drop stage. Attention should be paid to fruit - setting and weather changes. With the hot weather, seasonal fresh fruits are on the market, replacing jujubes and other nourishing products. It is the seasonal off - season for jujube demand, and inventory digestion is slow [2] 3.7 Viewpoint Summary - According to Mysteel's agricultural product research data, the physical inventory of 36 sample points in the 27th week was 10,520 tons, a decrease of 168 tons from last week, a 1.57% decrease, and a 71.08% increase year - on - year [2]

| 项目类别 | 数据指标 | 最新 | 环比 数据指标 | 最新 | 环比 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 期货盘面 | 期货主力合约收盘价:生猪(日,元/吨) | 14275 | 30 主力合约持仓量:生猪(日,手) | 73068 | -350 | | | 仓单数量:生猪(日,手) | 447 | 0 期货前20名持仓:净买单量:生猪(日,手) | -11032 | 449 | | 现货价格 | 生猪价 河南 驻马店(日,元/吨) | 15000 | 0 生猪价 吉林 四平(日,元/吨) | 14600 | 0 | | | 生猪价 广东 云浮(日,元/吨) | 16500 | -100 生猪主力基差(日,元/吨) | 725 | -30 | | 上游情况 | 生猪存栏(月,万头) | 41731 | -1012 生猪存栏:能繁母猪(月,万头) | 4042 | 4 | | 产业情况 | CPI:当月同比(月,%) | -0.1 | 0 现货价:豆粕:张家港(日,元/吨) | 2800 | 0 | | | 玉米现货价 | 2431.37 | -1.18 ...