投资咨询系列报告 山金期货黑色板块日报 一、螺纹、热卷 更新时间：2025年11月06日08时23分 报告导读： 供需方面，上周的数据显示螺纹表观需求继续回升 ，螺纹产量有回升但总库存下降速度偏慢 。热卷的库存在大幅回升后已经远高于同期水平 。焦煤 和焦炭现货偏强运行，对成本构成一定支撑。不过，由于钢厂毛利大幅回落，且消费高峰期即将过去，未来钢厂预计将压减产量从而可能会引发阶 段性的负反馈循环。从技术上看，在日 K 线图上，螺纹和热卷的期价突破了上方 10 日均线的压制后有所回调，目前均已经跌破了下方 10 日均线的 支撑，目前下方有布林带下轨的支撑。 操作建议： 维持观望，不可追涨杀跌，耐心等待企稳后逢低做多，中线交易。 投资咨询系列报告 需求方面，样本钢厂铁水产量环比出现较大幅度的回落 。由于钢厂利润的回落以及消费旺季的结束 ，钢厂或将有意继续压减产量，对原料价格形成 压制。供应端，全球发运从高位有所回落，预计一段时间之后到港量会有所回落 ，目前港口库存在消费旺季出现回升对期价有一定的压制 ，钢材库 存去化缓慢也压制整体市场情绪。随着宏观面利多的兑现，亏损叠加终端需求季节性下滑，期价面临一定的回调压力。技 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Views of the Report - The report predicts that precious metals will be volatile and slightly stronger in the short - term, experience high - level volatility in the medium - term, and rise in a step - by - step manner in the long - term [1]. - The price trend of gold is the anchor for the price of silver. In terms of funds, the net long position of CFTC silver and the iShare silver ETF have slightly increased their positions. In terms of inventory, the recent explicit inventory of silver has slightly decreased [4]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Gold - **Core Logic**: In the short - term for hedging, the risk of the trade war has eased after the China - US talks; the US employment has weakened and inflation is moderate, and the expectation of the Fed's interest rate cut has slowed down. In terms of the hedging attribute, the results and consensus of the China - US economic and trade consultations in Kuala Lumpur have been announced. The US will cancel the so - called "fentanyl tariff" of 10% on Chinese goods, and the 24% reciprocal tariff on Chinese goods will continue to be suspended for one year. The US government shutdown has reached 35 days, tying the longest record in history. In terms of the monetary attribute, the path of the Fed's interest rate cut has changed, and internal differences are intensifying. Many Fed officials have expressed concerns about the possibility of another interest rate cut in December in different forms. The Fed cut interest rates by 25 basis points as scheduled in October, lowering the federal funds rate to 3.75% - 4.00%, the second interest rate cut this year, and announced the end of the balance - sheet reduction from December 1. Fed Chairman Powell said that whether to further cut interest rates in December is "far from a foregone conclusion", and the data loss caused by the government shutdown may affect subsequent decisions. Currently, the market expects the probability of the Fed cutting interest rates by 25 basis points in December to remain around 70%. The US dollar index and US Treasury yields are under pressure at high levels. In terms of the commodity attribute, the CRB commodity index fluctuates downward, and the depreciation of the RMB benefits domestic prices [1]. - **Strategy**: Conservative investors should wait and see, while aggressive investors can buy low and sell high. It is recommended to manage positions well and set strict stop - loss and take - profit levels [2]. - **Data**: The latest closing price of the Comex gold main contract is $3941.30 per ounce, down $251.80 (-6.01%) from the previous day and down $26.80 (-0.68%) from the previous week. The London gold price is $3951.10 per ounce, down $74.15 (-1.84%) from the previous day and up $2.60 (0.07%) from the previous week. The closing price of the Shanghai gold main contract is 912.26 yuan per gram, down 3.32 yuan (-0.36%) from the previous day and up 1.38 yuan (0.15%) from the previous week. The closing price of gold T + D is 915.68 yuan per gram, unchanged from the previous day and up 3.26 yuan (0.36%) from the previous week. There are also data on basis, spreads, ratios, positions, inventories, etc. [2] Silver - **Core Logic**: The price trend of gold is the anchor for the price of silver. In terms of funds, the net long position of CFTC silver and the iShare silver ETF have slightly increased their positions. In terms of inventory, the recent explicit inventory of silver has slightly decreased [4]. - **Strategy**: Conservative investors should wait and see, while aggressive investors can buy low and sell high. It is recommended to manage positions well and set strict stop - loss and take - profit levels [5]. - **Data**: The latest closing price of the Comex silver main contract is $46.90 per ounce, down $4.08 (-7.99%) from the previous day and down $0.24 (-0.52%) from the previous week. The London silver price is $47.76 per ounce, down $1.02 (-2.08%) from the previous day and up $1.32 (2.84%) from the previous week. The closing price of the Shanghai silver main contract is 11276 yuan per kilogram, up 38 yuan (0.34%) from the previous day and down 62 yuan (-0.55%) from the previous week. The closing price of silver T + D is 11242 yuan per kilogram, unchanged from the previous day and down 109 yuan (-0.96%) from the previous week. There are also data on basis, spreads, positions, inventories, etc. [5] Fundamental Key Data - **Fed - related Data**: The upper limit of the federal funds target rate is 4.00%, down 0.25 percentage points from the previous value; the discount rate is 4.00%, down 0.25 percentage points from the previous value; the reserve balance interest rate (IORB) is 3.90%, down 0.25 percentage points from the previous value; the Fed's total assets are 66371.78 billion US dollars, down 32.35 billion US dollars (-0.00%) from the previous value; M2 (year - on - year) is 4.49%, up 0.01 percentage points from the previous value [7]. - **Other Key Data**: The 10 - year US Treasury real yield is 2.37, up 0.01 (0.42%) from the previous day and up 0.12 (5.33%) from the previous week; the US dollar index is 100.21, up 0.33 (0.34%) from the previous day and up 1.48 (1.50%) from the previous week; the US Treasury yield spread (3 - month to 10 - year) is 0.38, unchanged from the previous day and down 0.04 (-9.76%) from the previous week; there are also data on inflation, economic growth, labor market, real estate market, consumption, industry, trade, economic surveys, central bank gold reserves, etc. [7][9][11] Fed's Latest Interest Rate Expectations The probability of different interest rate ranges at each Fed meeting from December 2025 to October 2027 is provided, such as the probability of the federal funds rate being in the range of 375 - 400 basis points at the December 10, 2025 meeting is 74.1%, and the probability of being in the range of 400 - 425 basis points is 25.9% [12].

投资咨询系列报告 | 数据类别 | 指标 | 单位 | 最新 | 较上日 | | 较上周/前值 | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 国际价格 | Comex黄金主力合约收盘价 | 美元/盎司 | 4193.10 | 179.70 | 4.48% | 196.10 | 4.91% | | | 伦敦金 | 美元/盎司 | 4025.25 | 13.75 | 0.34% | 54.45 | 1.37% | | 国内价格 | 沪金主力收盘价（上期所） | 元/克 | 915.58 | -7.00 | -0.76% | 14.20 | 1.58% | | | 黄金T+D收盘价（上金所） | 元/克 | 915.68 | -4.52 | -0.49% | 18.99 | 2.12% | | 基差与价差、比价 | 沪金主力-伦敦金 | 元/克 | -44.01 | -45.65 | -2793% | -27.97 | 174% | | | 沪金主力基差 | 元/克 | 0.10 | | 2.48 | 4.79 | | | | 金银比（伦敦金/伦敦银 ...

投资咨询系列报告 山金期货黑色板块日报 一、螺纹、热卷 更新时间：2025年11月04日08时23分 报告导读： 随着中美在经贸关键议题上的共识落地 ，期货价格出现回落。供需方面，上周的数据显示螺纹表观需求继续回升 ，螺纹产量有回升但总库存下降速 度偏慢。热卷的库存在大幅回升后已经远高于同期水平 。焦煤和焦炭现货偏强运行，对成本构成一定支撑。不过，由于钢厂毛利大幅回落，且消费 高峰期即将过去，未来钢厂预计将压减产量从而可能会引发阶段性的负反馈循环 。从技术上看，在日 K 线图上，螺纹和热卷的期价突破了上方 10 日均线的压制后有所回调，后市大概率将转为震荡。 操作建议： 维持观望，不可追涨杀跌，回调后可逢低做多。 表1：螺纹、热卷相关数据 | 数据类别 | 指标 | 单位 | 最新 | | 较上日 | | 较上周 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | 螺纹钢主力合约收盘价 | 元/吨 | 3079 | -27 | -0.87% | -21 | -0.68% | | 期现货价格 | 热轧卷板主力合约收盘价 | 元/吨 | 3295 | - ...

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided in the content. 2. Core Viewpoints - Since late 2022, the gold price has more than doubled, driven by factors such as safe - haven and interest - rate cut expectations. Recently, the safe - haven logic has corrected, and the interest - rate cut logic has slowed down, leading to precious metals entering a high - level consolidation phase. [5][9] - The long - term upward trend of precious metals may continue as the economic system restructuring drives the currency system restructuring. However, there are also factors such as the rebound of the opportunity cost of holding gold and the uncertainty of the Fed's interest - rate cut policy. [6][39] 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Recent Market Review - Since late 2022, the gold price has more than doubled, with safe - haven and interest - rate cut logics jointly driving the trend. Recently, the safe - haven logic has corrected, and the interest - rate cut logic has slowed down, causing precious metals to return to high - level consolidation. [5][9] - Compared with the previous two bull markets, the Fed has been more cautious in cutting interest rates in this bull market. The impact of the safe - haven logic on gold is more significant, and a correction in the safe - haven factor will have a greater impact. [5][12] - In previous bull markets, the volatility of silver was greater than that of gold. In recent years, the average increase of silver has been lower than that of gold, significantly dragged down by its industrial attributes. Since the second half of the year, silver has continuously made up for losses, with its increase exceeding that of gold again. [5][13] 3.2 Evolution of Precious Metals Investment Logic - From the overall research framework of precious metals, safe - haven events are often the trigger for market movements, and the final trend is jointly dominated by monetary and commodity attributes. [15] - In recent years, the monetary policies of global central banks have diverged significantly. Non - US currencies have a significant impact on precious metals, and the difference in interest - rate cut expectations between them and the US is particularly crucial. The Fed has more room for interest - rate cuts in the later stage. [18] - In terms of interest - rate comparison among major economies, non - US economies cut interest rates faster than the US in the early stage, but the pace of interest - rate cuts in non - US economies has slowed down recently, and the interest - rate spread expectation has declined from its high level. [19] - Currently, there are more uncertainties in the market's expectation of whether the Fed will cut interest rates within the year. The expectation of a Fed interest - rate cut in December has corrected from its high level, and the future pace of interest - rate cuts will significantly slow down. [23] - In terms of inflation comparison, the inflation of major economies has been generally mild recently, and the inflation pressure from the trade war has not emerged. [26] - The IMF's latest forecast in October 2025 shows that the global economic growth rate will slow down from 3.3% in 2024 to 3.2% in 2025 and further to 3.1% in 2026. It is expected that the US economic growth rate will be 2.0% and 2.1% in the next two years, an upward adjustment of 0.1 percentage point compared with the July forecast. [32] - The expected deficits of government bonds in major economies are high, the supply is increasing, and the yields are generally rising. The global debt problem further promotes the risk pricing of precious metals. [36] 3.3 Future Trend Outlook for Precious Metals - The restructuring of the economic system drives the restructuring of the currency system. As a super - sovereign currency, the long - term upward trend of precious metals may continue to be the path of least resistance. [39] - In the "de - dollarization" process, the proportion of the US dollar in the global central bank's foreign exchange reserves and international payments has decreased, while the proportion of gold has increased significantly. However, the US dollar still maintains a dominant position, and "de - dollarization" is a long - term process. [41] - The inversion of the 3 - month to 10 - year US Treasury yield spread, which the Fed focuses on, has continued to decline recently, indicating that the risk of a US economic recession still exists. The US - Europe interest - rate spread has declined from its high level, and the US - China interest - rate spread has significantly narrowed. [43] - The real yield of US Treasury bonds has rebounded after encountering resistance in its decline, increasing the opportunity cost of holding gold. The US dollar index is in a long - term downward trend, but the support near the lower - break level is still strong. [45] - In terms of the safe - haven attribute of precious metals, the VIX of the S&P 500 is at an ultra - low level in recent years and has shown recent fluctuations. The uncertainty of US economic policies has decreased after Trump took office. [46] - In terms of the capital side, the net long positions of gold and silver in CFTC positions have recently declined from their high levels. The SPDR Gold ETF and iShare Silver ETF have continuously reduced their positions since 2021, but there has been a recent trend of increasing positions. [49] - The net long positions of Shanghai Gold futures companies have recently increased rapidly, while those of Shanghai Silver are still at a relatively low level. [52] - In 2025, the global gold supply is expected to be stable. The demand for gold jewelry is less suppressed by high prices, and the investment demand from the private sector and central banks still has potential. [59] - The World Silver Association indicates that due to a 1% decline in demand and a 2% increase in total supply, the global silver supply - demand gap is expected to narrow by 21% to 117.6 million ounces (about 3,658 tons) in 2025. [61] - Technically, London gold is under short - term upward pressure, showing weak consolidation in the medium term, and the long - term bullish trend remains unchanged. It is recommended to pay attention to the effectiveness of the resistance at 4080 (about 935 for the Shanghai Gold main contract) and the support at 3730 (about 855 for Shanghai Gold). [6] - London silver is under short - term upward pressure, showing strong consolidation in the medium term, and the long - term bullish trend remains unchanged. Attention should be paid to whether it can break through the resistance in the 50 (about 11,680 for the Shanghai Silver main contract) range and the effectiveness of the support at 44 (about 10,000 for Shanghai Silver). [6] - The gold - silver ratio is currently at the 83.12% percentile in the past 45 years, with an average of 66.49. Recently, with the correction of the safe - haven factor and the slowdown of interest - rate cut expectations, the gold - silver ratio is expected to continue its downward trend. [68]

Report Industry Investment Rating - No industry investment rating information is provided in the report. Core Viewpoints - With the consensus on key economic and trade issues between China and the US, futures prices have declined. The apparent demand for rebar continued to rise last week, and rebar production also increased, but the total inventory decline was slow. The inventory of hot-rolled coils has far exceeded the same period after a significant increase. Coking coal and coke spot prices are running strongly, providing some support for costs. However, due to the significant decline in steel mill margins and the approaching end of the consumption peak season, steel mills are expected to reduce production in the future, which may trigger a phased negative feedback cycle. Technically, the futures prices of rebar and hot-rolled coils broke through the suppression of the upper 10-day moving average on the daily K-line chart and then pulled back. The market is likely to turn into a sideways trend in the future [2]. - In terms of iron ore, the sample steel mill's molten iron production decreased significantly on a month-on-month basis. Due to the decline in steel mill profits and the end of the consumption peak season, steel mills may continue to reduce production intentionally, putting pressure on raw material prices. On the supply side, global shipments are at a high level, and the increase in port inventories during the consumption peak season has a certain suppressing effect on futures prices. The slow destocking of steel inventories also dampens the overall market sentiment. With the realization of macro-level positive factors, futures prices face certain correction pressure [5]. Summary by Directory I. Rebar and Hot-Rolled Coils - **Price Data**: The closing price of the rebar steel main contract is 3,106 yuan/ton, up 60 yuan or 1.97% from last week; the closing price of the hot-rolled coil main contract is 3,308 yuan/ton, down 10 yuan or 0.30% from the previous day and up 58 yuan or 1.78% from last week. The spot price of rebar (HRB400E 20mm, Shanghai) is 3,230 yuan/ton, up 30 yuan or 0.94% from last week; the spot price of hot-rolled coils (Q235 4.75mm, Shanghai) is 3,330 yuan/ton, up 40 yuan or 1.22% from last week [3]. - **Production and Inventory**: The national building materials steel mill's rebar production is 212.59 million tons, up 5.52 million tons or 2.67% from last week; the hot-rolled coil production is 323.56 million tons, up 1.10 million tons or 0.34% from last week. The five major varieties of social inventory are 1,077.08 million tons, down 22.62 million tons or 2.06% from last week; the rebar social inventory is 430.81 million tons, down 6.67 million tons or 1.52% from last week; the hot-rolled coil social inventory is 328.93 million tons, down 8.64 million tons or 2.56% from last week [3]. - **Operation Suggestion**: Maintain a wait-and-see attitude, do not chase up or sell down, and consider buying on dips after a pullback [2]. II. Iron Ore - **Price Data**: The settlement price of the DCE iron ore main contract is 800 yuan/dry ton, up 29 yuan or 3.76% from last week; the settlement price of the SGX iron ore continuous contract is 106.79 US dollars/dry ton, down 0.26 US dollars or 0.24% from the previous day and up 2.61 US dollars or 2.51% from last week. The Platts 62% index is 107.7 US dollars/dry ton, up 2.55 US dollars or 2.43% from last week [5]. - **Supply and Demand Data**: Australian iron ore shipments are 1,721.6 million tons, down 7.9 million tons or 0.46% from last week; Brazilian iron ore shipments are 796.6 million tons, up 47.6 million tons or 6.36% from last week. The total arrival volume of the six northern ports is 1,095.9 million tons, down 107.3 million tons or 8.92% from last week; the average daily port clearance volume (total of 45 ports) is 331.22 million tons, up 9.15 million tons or 2.84% from last week [5]. - **Operation Suggestion**: Maintain a wait-and-see attitude and patiently wait for the price to pull back before buying on dips [5]. III. Industry News - The China Iron and Steel Association stated that in the first three quarters, the apparent consumption of crude steel nationwide was 649 million tons, a year-on-year decrease of 5.7%. It is expected that the apparent consumption of crude steel for the whole year will decline for the fifth consecutive year. Overall, steel production and consumption are still showing a downward trend, with the decline in consumption greater than the decline in production [8]. - Li Chao, the deputy director of the Policy Research Office of the National Development and Reform Commission, stated at a press conference that as of October 27, the coal inventory of the national unified power plants was 220 million tons, which could be used for more than 35 days; the underground gas storage has completed the annual gas injection task and achieved full storage for the winter [8]. - According to Mysteel, it is predicted that the diffusion conditions in Tangshan will gradually improve, and the pollution process will basically end. The Tangshan Heavy Pollution Weather Response Command decided to lift the Class II emergency response for heavy pollution weather in the whole city from 0:00 on November 1, 2025 [8]. - According to the PMI of the steel industry surveyed and released by the Steel Logistics Professional Committee of the China Federation of Logistics and Purchasing, it was 49.2% in October 2025, a month-on-month increase of 1.5 percentage points, ending the continuous two-month month-on-month decline, and the industry operation has recovered [8]. - Mysteel statistics show that the total inventory of imported iron ore at 47 ports nationwide is 152.7293 million tons, a month-on-month increase of 1.6344 million tons; the average daily port clearance volume is 3.3122 million tons, an increase of 0.0915 million tons. The total inventory of imported iron ore at 45 ports nationwide is 145.4248 million tons, a month-on-month increase of 1.1889 million tons; the average daily port clearance volume is 3.2016 million tons, an increase of 0.0751 million tons; the number of ships at the port is 118, an increase of 11 [8]. - Mysteel statistics show that the blast furnace operating rate of 247 steel mills is 81.75%, a decrease of 2.96 percentage points from last week and a decrease of 0.69 percentage points from the same period last year; the average daily molten iron production is 2.3636 million tons, a decrease of 0.0354 million tons from last week [9].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Views of the Report - Today, precious metals rebounded from their lows, with the main Shanghai gold contract closing up 1.27% and the main Shanghai silver contract closing up 1.41%. The short - term core logic includes: the risk of trade war has eased, but geopolitical risks still exist; the risk of stagflation in the US economy has increased, employment has weakened, inflation is moderate, and the Fed's interest - rate cut expectations are being realized. [1] - The Fed cut interest rates by 25 basis points as expected, lowering the federal funds rate to 3.75% - 4.00%, the second rate cut this year, and announced the end of balance - sheet reduction starting from December 1st. [1] - It is expected that precious metals will be volatile and strong in the short term, oscillate at high levels in the medium term, and rise step - by - step in the long term. [1] - The price trend of gold is the anchor for the price of silver. In terms of capital, the net long position of CFTC silver and iShare silver ETF increased slightly. In terms of inventory, the recent visible inventory of silver decreased slightly. [5] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Gold - **Strategy**: Conservative investors should wait and see, while aggressive investors can buy low and sell high. It is recommended to manage positions well and set strict stop - loss and take - profit levels. [2] - **Data Summary**: - **International prices**: Comex gold's main contract closed at $4038.30 per ounce, up 2.45% from the previous day; London gold was at $3994.15 per ounce, down 0.31%. [2] - **Domestic prices**: The main Shanghai gold contract closed at 921.92 yuan per gram, up 1.07%; gold T + D closed at 921.02 yuan per gram, up 1.51%. [2] - **Positions and inventories**: Comex gold positions were 528,789 hands; Shanghai gold's main contract positions decreased by 4.11% from the previous day. LBMA gold inventory was 8,598 tons, and Comex gold inventory decreased by 1.08% from the previous week. [2] Silver - **Strategy**: Similar to gold, conservative investors should wait and see, and aggressive investors can buy low and sell high. Position management and strict stop - loss and take - profit are recommended. [6] - **Data Summary**: - **International prices**: Comex silver's main contract closed at $48.73 per ounce, up 3.08% from the previous day; London silver was at $48.18 per ounce, up 0.01%. [6] - **Domestic prices**: The main Shanghai silver contract closed at 11,441 yuan per kilogram, up 1.67%; silver T + D closed at 11,410 yuan per kilogram, up 1.90%. [6] - **Positions and inventories**: Comex silver positions were 165,805 hands; Shanghai silver's main contract positions decreased by 1.41% from the previous day. The total visible inventory decreased by 1.03% from the previous week. [6] Fundamental Key Data - **Fed - related data**: The upper limit of the federal funds target rate is 4.00%, the discount rate is 4.00%, the reserve balance rate (IORB) is 3.90%, and the Fed's total assets are $66,371.78 billion, down 0.00% from the previous week. [8] - **Economic indicators**: The ten - year US Treasury real yield is 2.35, the dollar index is 99.52, and the US Treasury yield spread (3 - month to 10 - year) is 0.31. [8] - **Inflation indicators**: CPI (year - on - year) is 3.00%, core CPI (year - on - year) is 3.00%, and PCE price index (year - on - year) is 2.74%. [10] - **Employment indicators**: The unemployment rate is 4.30%, and non - farm payrolls changed by 2.20 million. [10] - **Other indicators**: The geopolitical risk index is 188.52, the VIX index is 16.23, the CRB commodity index is 300.77, and the offshore RMB exchange rate is 7.0944. [11]

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Views of the Report - Today, precious metals rebounded from a low level. The main contract of Shanghai Gold closed down 0.55%, while the main contract of Shanghai Silver closed up 1.91%. The short - term outlook for precious metals is expected to be volatile and bullish, with a high - level oscillation in the medium term and a step - by - step upward trend in the long term [3]. - The gold price trend is the anchor for the silver price. In terms of capital, the net long position of CFTC silver and the iShare silver ETF increased slightly. In terms of inventory, the recent visible inventory of silver decreased slightly [6]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Gold - **Core Logic**: In the short - term, regarding risk aversion, there may be a meeting between China and the US, easing the risk of a trade war. The risk of stagflation in the US economy is increasing, with weak employment and moderate inflation, and the market's expectation of the Fed's interest - rate cut is being realized. In terms of the risk - aversion attribute, although the trade - war risk has eased, geopolitical fluctuations still exist. Regarding the monetary attribute, the US consumer confidence in October dropped to a six - month low, and the Fed may stop shrinking its balance sheet in the coming months. The market expects a 25 - basis - point interest - rate cut by the Fed in October with a probability of over 90%, and about 2 more cuts within the year. The US dollar index and US Treasury yields are oscillating strongly. In terms of the commodity attribute, the CRB commodity index is oscillating downward, and the appreciation of the RMB is negative for domestic prices [3]. - **Strategy**: Conservative investors should wait and see, while aggressive investors can buy on dips. With the Fed's decision and the China - US talks this week, risk management is recommended [4]. - **Data**: Various data on gold, including international and domestic prices, basis and spreads, positions, inventories, etc., are presented with their changes compared to the previous day and the previous week [4]. - **Net Position Ranking**: The top 10 net - position rankings of futures companies' members in Shanghai Gold on the Shanghai Futures Exchange are provided, including the rankings of long and short positions [5]. Silver - **Core Logic**: The gold price trend is the anchor for the silver price. There are slight increases in the net long position of CFTC silver and the iShare silver ETF, and a slight decrease in the recent visible inventory of silver [6]. - **Strategy**: Conservative investors should wait and see, while aggressive investors can buy on dips. With the Fed's decision and the China - US talks this week, risk management is recommended [7]. - **Data**: Various data on silver, including international and domestic prices, basis and spreads, positions, inventories, etc., are presented with their changes compared to the previous day and the previous week [7]. - **Net Position Ranking**: The top 10 net - position rankings of futures companies' members in Shanghai Silver on the Shanghai Futures Exchange are provided, including the rankings of long and short positions [8]. Fundamental Key Data - **Fed - Related Data**: Data such as the federal funds target rate, discount rate, reserve balance rate, total assets of the Fed, M2, etc., are presented with their changes compared to the previous week [9]. - **Other Key Indicators**: Key indicators including various interest - rate spreads, inflation data, economic growth data, labor - market data, real - estate market data, consumption data, industrial data, and trade data are provided with their changes [11]. - **Central Bank Gold Reserves and Related Ratios**: Data on central bank gold reserves of different countries, the proportion of different currencies in IMF foreign exchange reserves, the ratio of gold to foreign exchange reserves, and other related data are presented [13]. - **Risk - Aversion and Commodity Attributes**: Data on the geopolitical risk index, VIX index, CRB commodity index, and offshore RMB are provided with their changes [13]. - **Fed's Interest - Rate Expectations**: The expected probabilities of the Fed's interest - rate ranges at different meeting dates are presented [14].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The short - term risk - aversion situation shows that the potential meeting between China and the US may ease trade - war risks, while the risk of stagflation in the US economy is increasing, with weak employment and moderate inflation, and the market's expectation of the Fed's interest - rate cuts is being realized [1]. - In terms of the safe - haven attribute, the China - US trade negotiations have reached a preliminary consensus, with Trump being optimistic and China being cautious. Trump has cancelled his meeting with Putin and complained about the deadlock in negotiations [1]. - Regarding the monetary attribute, the US consumer price increase in September was slightly lower than expected. The Fed may stop shrinking its balance sheet in the coming months, and the market expects a 25 - basis - point interest - rate cut in October with a probability of over 90%, and about 2 more cuts within the year [1]. - From the perspective of the commodity attribute, the CRB commodity index is oscillating downward, and the appreciation of the RMB is negative for domestic prices [1]. - It is expected that precious metals will show short - term weak oscillations, medium - term high - level oscillations, and long - term step - up trends [1]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Gold - **Market Performance**: Today, precious metals oscillated downward, with the main contract of Shanghai gold futures closing down 4.20% and the main contract of Shanghai silver futures closing down 3.32% [1]. - **Strategy**: Conservative investors should wait and see, while aggressive investors can buy low and sell high. With the Fed's decision and China - US talks this week, risk management is recommended [2]. - **Data Summary**: International gold prices (Comex and London) and domestic gold prices (Shanghai gold futures and gold T + D) all declined. The positions of Comex gold and Shanghai gold futures decreased, while the positions of gold T + D increased. Some inventories decreased slightly [2]. Silver - **Market - related Factors**: The price trend of gold is the anchor for the price of silver. In terms of capital, the net long position of CFTC silver and the iShare silver ETF slightly increased. In terms of inventory, the recent visible inventory of silver slightly decreased [5]. - **Strategy**: Similar to gold, conservative investors should wait and see, and aggressive investors can buy low and sell high. Risk management is necessary during the Fed's decision and China - US talks [6]. - **Data Summary**: International and domestic silver prices declined. The positions of Comex silver and Shanghai silver futures decreased, while the positions of silver T + D increased. Inventories generally decreased [6]. Fundamental Key Data - **Monetary Attribute**: The federal funds target rate, discount rate, and reserve balance rate all decreased by 0.25%. The Fed's total assets decreased slightly. There were changes in inflation, economic growth, labor market, real - estate market, consumption, industrial, trade, and economic - survey indicators [8][10]. - **Safe - haven Attribute**: The geopolitical risk index increased by 30.89% compared to the previous day and 69.51% compared to the previous week, while the VIX index decreased by 10.97% compared to the previous week [12]. - **Commodity Attribute**: The CRB commodity index decreased by 0.48% compared to the previous day but increased by 2.08% compared to the previous week. The offshore RMB exchange rate changed slightly [12]. - **Fed's Interest - rate Expectations**: The market has different expectations for the Fed's interest - rate levels in different periods from October 2025 to September 2027 [13].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The short - term risk - aversion factor shows that the potential meeting between China and the US may ease trade - war risks, while the risk of stagflation in the US economy is increasing, with weakening employment and moderate inflation, and the market's expectation of the Fed's interest - rate cut is being realized [1]. - In terms of the safe - haven attribute, the China - US trade negotiations have reached a preliminary consensus, with Trump expressing optimism and China being cautious. Trump has cancelled a meeting with Putin and complained about the deadlock in negotiations [1]. - Regarding the monetary attribute, the US consumer price increase in September was slightly lower than expected. The Fed may stop shrinking its balance sheet in the coming months, and the market expects a 25 - basis - point interest - rate cut in October with a probability of over 90%, and about 2 more cuts within the year [1]. - For the commodity attribute, the CRB commodity index is oscillating downward, and the appreciation of the RMB is negative for domestic prices. It is expected that precious metals will be oscillating weakly in the short term, oscillating at a high level in the medium term, and rising in a step - by - step manner in the long term [1]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Gold - **Market Performance**: Today, precious metals oscillated weakly. The main contract of Shanghai Gold Futures closed down 1.24%, and the main contract of Shanghai Silver Futures closed down 0.47% [1]. - **Strategy**: Conservative investors should wait and see, while aggressive investors can buy low and sell high. With the Fed's decision and China - US talks this week, risk management is recommended [2]. - **Data Summary**: International and domestic gold prices generally declined, with varying degrees of decrease in different price indicators. Some basis, spread, and ratio indicators changed significantly, and there were also changes in positions and inventories [2]. - **Net Position Ranking**: The report lists the top 10 net - long and net - short positions of gold futures companies' members on the Shanghai Futures Exchange, showing the changes in positions of different companies [3]. Silver - **Price Anchor**: The gold price trend is the anchor for the silver price [5]. - **Fund and Inventory Situation**: The net long position of CFTC silver and the iShare Silver ETF slightly increased, and the visible inventory of silver decreased slightly recently [5]. - **Strategy**: Similar to gold, conservative investors should wait and see, and aggressive investors can buy low and sell high. Risk management is recommended during the Fed's decision and China - US talks [6]. - **Data Summary**: International and domestic silver prices showed different trends. Some basis and spread indicators changed greatly, and there were also changes in positions and inventories [6]. - **Net Position Ranking**: The report lists the top 10 net - long and net - short positions of silver futures companies' members on the Shanghai Futures Exchange, showing the changes in positions of different companies [7]. Fundamental Key Data - **Fed - Related Data**: The upper limit of the federal funds target rate, the discount rate, and the reserve balance interest rate all decreased by 0.25 percentage points compared to the previous period. The Fed's total assets decreased slightly, and M2's year - on - year growth rate decreased slightly [8]. - **Other Key Indicators**: There were changes in indicators such as the 10 - year US Treasury real yield, the US dollar index, and various interest - rate spreads. Inflation, economic growth, labor market, real estate market, consumption, industrial, trade, and other aspects also had corresponding data changes [8][10]. - **Central Bank Gold Reserves**: The gold reserves of China, the US, and the world remained stable, and there were changes in the proportion of the US dollar, euro, and RMB in the IMF's foreign exchange reserves, as well as the proportion of gold in foreign exchange reserves [10][12]. - **Risk and Commodity - Related Indicators**: The geopolitical risk index remained unchanged, the VIX index decreased, the CRB commodity index decreased slightly, and the offshore RMB exchange rate changed slightly [12]. - **Fed's Interest - Rate Expectation**: The report shows the probability distribution of the Fed's interest - rate range in different meetings in the future based on the CME FedWatch tool [13].