投资咨询系列报告 山金期货黑色板块日报 一、螺纹、热卷 更新时间：2026年01月30日08时22分 报告导读： 供需方面，本周247家样本钢厂螺纹产量小幅上升，表观需求环比回落，总库存继续回升，五大品种总产量小幅增加，库存继续继续增加，表观需求 环比回落。整体来看，目前市场整体处于消费淡季，产量、需求处于低位，库存从低位回升。央行下调再贷款再贴现利率在一定程度上提振市场信 心，未来仍有降准和降息的空间，不排除央行将很快行动。短线价格的上涨或主要因央行取消房企的 "三条红线"的要求所致。从技术面看，目前期 价在上下 100 元/吨的区间窄幅震荡，可能面临方向选择 操作建议： 多单轻仓持有，待期价回落至震荡区间下沿附近后再逢低加仓 ，中线交易。不可以追涨杀跌 二、铁矿石 报告导读： 请务必阅读文后重要声明 第 1 页，共 3 页 投资咨询系列报告 需求方面，本周247家样本钢厂螺纹产量小幅上升，表观需求环比回落，总库存继续回升，五大品种总产量小幅增加，库存继续增加，表观需求环比 回落。目前市场仍处于消费淡季，铁水产量大概率仍将沿着季节性趋势回落 ，上周 247 家样本钢厂铁水产量基本维持不变 。由于今年春节较晚 ...

投资咨询系列报告 山金期货贵金属策略报告 更新时间：2026年01月29日15时48分 报告导读： 今日贵金属震荡上行，沪金主力收涨7.88%，沪银主力收涨8.51%，铂金主力收涨1.94%，钯金主力收涨涨2.95%。①核心逻辑， 短期避险方面，贸易战与地缘异动风险上升；美国就业走弱通胀温和，降息预期存在支撑。②避险属性方面，特朗普敦促伊朗重返 核谈判，否则下一次打击将更猛烈。特朗普表示，将对把部分韩国输美商品关税从15%上调至25%，贸易战与地缘异动风险上升。 ③货币属性方面，美联储1月维持利率不变，鲍威尔称通胀和就业风险均有所缓解。美国消费者信心跌至逾11年半最低，就业疲软 与高物价加剧忧虑。美国11月核心资本财订单连续第五个月增长，提振经济前景。美国12月CPI涨幅符合预期，但家庭食品与房租 支出增加。目前市场预期美联储下次降息或到6月。美元指数和美债收益率震荡偏强；④商品属性方面，波兰央行表示，已批准一 项购买多达150吨黄金的计划。白银受到供应偏紧支撑。铂金氢能产业铂基催化剂需求预期强劲。钯金短期需求仍有韧性，长期面 临燃油车市场结构性压力。CRB商品指数震荡偏弱，人民币升值利空内价格。⑤预计贵金属 ...

投资咨询系列报告 山金期货黑色板块日报 一、螺纹、热卷 更新时间：2026年01月29日08时05分 报告导读： 供需方面，上周的数据显示螺纹产量环比增加 ，整体库存增加，螺纹表观需求环比回落，五大品种表观需求整体回落，库存增加，产量基本维持不 变。整体来看，目前市场整体处于消费淡季，产量、需求处于低位，库存从低位回升。央行下调再贷款再贴现利率在一定程度上提振市场信心 ，未 来仍有降准和降息的空间，不排除央行将很快行动。从技术面看，目前期价在上下 100 元/吨的区间窄幅震荡，可能面临方向选择 操作建议： 多单轻仓持有，待期价回落至震荡区间下沿附近后再逢低加仓 ，中线交易。不可以追涨杀跌 投资咨询系列报告 需求方面，上周五大钢材品种整体产量基本维持不变 ，表观需求环比回落，库存增加。目前市场仍处于消费淡季，铁水产量大概率仍将沿着季节性 趋势回落，上周 247 家样本钢厂铁水产量基本维持不变 。由于今年春节较晚，节前的补库需求到来时间也会晚于往年 ，钢材表观需求的好转或主要 因年末抢工期所致，钢材以及铁水产量暂时不会大幅上升 ，但回落的空间也不大。供应端，全球发运回落，后期受南半球季节性因素的影响，发运 预计将 ...

投资咨询系列报告 上期所期货公司会员沪金净持仓排名前10 山金期货贵金属策略报告 更新时间：2026年01月28日15时43分 报告导读： 今日贵金属高位分化，沪金主力收涨3.58%，沪银主力收涨2.92%，铂金主力收跌0.17%，钯金主力收涨跌1.80%。①核心逻辑， 短期避险方面，贸易战与地缘异动风险上升；美国就业走弱通胀温和，降息预期存在支撑。②避险属性方面，美航母打击群向中东 集结，伊朗扬言任何对伊攻击将被视为全面开战。特朗普表示，将对把部分韩国输美商品关税从15%上调至25%，贸易战与地缘异 动风险上升。③货币属性方面，美国总统特朗普称美元表现很好，并不担心美元下跌。美国消费者信心跌至逾11年半最低，就业 疲软与高物价加剧忧虑。美国12月CPI涨幅符合预期，但家庭食品与房租支出增加。美联储12月在重重分歧中下调利率，暗示将暂 停行动明年或仅降息一次。鲍威尔指出，美联储的利率政策已处于良好位置，可以应对未来经济走势。目前市场预期美联储26年1 月不降息概率维持在95%附近，下次降息或到6月。美元指数和美债收益率震荡偏强；④商品属性方面，波兰央行表示，已批准一 项购买多达150吨黄金的计划。白银受到供应 ...

投资咨询系列报告 山金期货黑色板块日报 一、螺纹、热卷 更新时间：2026年01月28日08时21分 报告导读： 供需方面，上周的数据显示螺纹产量环比增加 ，整体库存增加，螺纹表观需求环比回落，五大品种表观需求整体回落，库存增加，产量基本维持不 变。整体来看，目前市场整体处于消费淡季，产量、需求处于低位，库存从低位回升。央行下调再贷款再贴现利率在一定程度上提振市场信心 ，未 来仍有降准和降息的空间，不排除央行将很快行动。从技术面看，目前期价在上下 100 元/吨的区间窄幅震荡，可能面临方向选择 操作建议： 多单轻仓持有，待期价回落至震荡区间下沿附近后再逢低加仓 ，中线交易。不可以追涨杀跌 | 表1：螺纹、热卷相关数据 | | | | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 数据类别 | 指标 | 单位 | 最新 | | 较上日 | | 较上周 | | | 螺纹钢主力合约收盘价 | 元/吨 | 3126 | -17 | -0.54% | 15 | 0.48% | | 期现货价格 | 热轧卷板主力合约收盘价 | 元/吨 | 3289 ...

投资咨询系列报告 山金期货贵金属策略报告 更新时间：2026年01月27日16时58分 报告导读： 今日贵金属高位分化，沪金主力收涨1.52%，沪银主力收涨7.25%，铂金主力收跌4.61%，钯金主力收涨跌2.087%。①核心逻辑， 短期避险方面，贸易战与地缘异动风险上升；美国就业走弱通胀温和，降息预期存在支撑。②避险属性方面，美航母打击群向中东 集结，伊朗扬言任何对伊攻击将被视为全面开战。特朗普表示，将对把部分韩国输美商品关税从15%上调至25%，贸易战与地缘异 动风险上升。③货币属性方面，美国11月核心资本财订单连续第五个月增长，提振经济前景。美国12月CPI涨幅符合预期，但家庭 食品与房租支出增加。美联储12月在重重分歧中下调利率，暗示将暂停行动明年或仅降息一次。鲍威尔指出，美联储的利率政策 已处于良好位置，可以应对未来经济走势。目前市场预期美联储26年1月不降息概率维持在95%附近，下次降息或到6月。美元指 数和美债收益率震荡偏强；④商品属性方面，波兰央行表示，已批准一项购买多达150吨黄金的计划。白银受到供应偏紧支撑。铂 金氢能产业铂基催化剂需求预期强劲。钯金短期需求仍有韧性，长期面临燃油车市场结构 ...

投资咨询系列报告 山金期货黑色板块日报 一、螺纹、热卷 更新时间：2026年01月27日08时19分 报告导读： 供需方面，上周的数据显示螺纹产量环比增加 ，整体库存增加，螺纹表观需求环比回落，五大品种表观需求整体回落，库存增加，产量基本维持不 变。整体来看，目前市场整体处于消费淡季，产量、需求处于低位，库存从低位回升。央行下调再贷款再贴现利率在一定程度上提振市场信心 ，未 来仍有降准和降息的空间，不排除央行将很快行动。从技术面看，目前期价在上下 100 元/吨的区间窄幅震荡，可能面临方向选择 二、铁矿石 报告导读： 请务必阅读文后重要声明 第 1 页，共 3 页 投资咨询系列报告 需求方面，上周五大钢材品种整体产量基本维持不变 ，表观需求环比回落，库存增加。目前市场仍处于消费淡季，铁水产量大概率仍将沿着季节性 趋势回落，上周 247 家样本钢厂铁水产量基本维持不变 。由于今年春节较晚，节前的补库需求到来时间也会晚于往年 ，钢材表观需求的好转或主要 因年末抢工期所致，钢材以及铁水产量暂时不会大幅上升 ，但回落的空间也不大。供应端，全球发运继续回落，到港量下降，港口库存的不断回升 。技术面上，期价突破近期震荡区 ...

投资咨询系列报告 更新时间：2026年01月26日16时39分 报告导读： 今日贵金属震荡上行，沪金主力收涨3.67%，沪银主力收涨12.78%，铂金主力收涨9.68%，钯金主力收涨涨7.17%。①核心逻辑， 短期避险方面，贸易战避险消退，地缘异动风险上升；美国就业走弱通胀温和，降息预期存在支撑。②避险属性方面，美航母打击 群向中东集结，伊朗扬言任何对伊攻击将被视为全面开战。特朗普放话，若加拿大推进对华贸易协议将面临100%美国关税。特朗 普称格陵兰协议给予美国"全面准入"，北约将加强北极部署，地缘异动风险上升。③货币属性方面，美国就业走弱，美国劳工部 报告显示，在截至1月17日止的一周，初请失业金人数略增加了1000人，经季调后为20万人，低于预估的21万人。美国12月CPI 涨幅符合预期，但家庭食品与房租支出增加。美联储12月在重重分歧中下调利率，暗示将暂停行动明年或仅降息一次。目前市场 预期美联储26年1月不降息概率维持在95%附近，下次降息或到6月。美元指数和美债收益率震荡偏强；④商品属性方面，波兰央 行表示，已批准一项购买多达150吨黄金的计划。白银受到供应偏紧支撑。铂金氢能产业铂基催化剂需求预期强 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The steel market is currently in the off - season of consumption, with low production and demand, and inventory rising from a low level. The central bank's cut in re - lending and re - discount rates has boosted market confidence to some extent, and there is still room for reserve requirement ratio cuts and interest rate cuts in the future [2]. - For iron ore, the demand is affected by the off - season of the steel market, and the supply side shows a decline in global shipments and arrivals. The rising port inventory suppresses the futures price [4]. 3. Summary of Each Section 3.1 Threaded Rods and Hot - Rolled Coils - **Supply and Demand**: This week's data shows that the production of threaded rods increased, the overall inventory increased, the apparent demand for threaded rods decreased, and the overall apparent demand for the five major varieties decreased while inventory increased. The production remained basically unchanged. The market is in the consumption off - season, with low production and demand and rising inventory [2]. - **Technical Analysis**: The futures price rose and then fell, forming a short - term downward breakthrough, with a small rebound in the short term and strong resistance above [2]. - **Operation Suggestion**: Hold long positions with a light position, and add positions at low prices when the futures price falls to the lower edge of the shock range. Conduct medium - term trading and avoid chasing up or selling down [2]. 3.2 Iron Ore - **Demand**: The overall production of the five major steel products remained basically unchanged this week, the apparent demand decreased, and the inventory increased. The iron - making water production is likely to decline seasonally. The improvement in steel's apparent demand may be due to the year - end rush to complete projects. The accident of a rolling mill under Baotou Steel Group may disrupt iron ore demand [4]. - **Supply**: Global shipments continued to decline, and arrivals decreased. The rising port inventory suppresses the futures price [4]. - **Technical Analysis**: After breaking through the recent shock range, the futures price rose strongly but has adjusted significantly in recent days, falling below the support of the 10 - day moving average and back to the upper edge of the previous shock range. It may have some support here, but the upward trend may end, and it is expected to fluctuate at a low level in the short term [4]. - **Operation Suggestion**: Close long positions and then maintain a wait - and - see attitude [4]. 3.3 Industry News - In mid - January, the social inventory of five major steel products in 21 cities decreased slightly, down 0.3% month - on - month, 1.7% lower than at the beginning of the year, and 5.2% higher than the same period last year [6]. - Fenix Resources, an Australian iron ore producer, increased its mining and shipping volume in Q4 2025 and raised its shipping target for fiscal year 2026 [6]. - As of the week of January 22, the production and factory inventory of threaded rods increased, the social inventory increased for the third consecutive week, and the apparent demand decreased [6]. - South32's Australian manganese industry had a decrease in manganese ore production in Q4 2025 but an increase in sales. The annual output guidance for 2026 remains unchanged [7]. - The average profit per ton of coke for 30 independent coking plants was - 66 yuan/ton this week [7]. - As of January 22, 2026, the total inventory of national float glass sample enterprises increased, and the theoretical profit of soda ash decreased [7].

Report Investment Rating - No investment rating for the industry is provided in the report. Core Viewpoints - The short - term safe - haven situation has changed with the decline of trade - war safe - haven demand and the rise of geopolitical risks. The weakening US employment and moderate inflation still support the expectation of interest rate cuts. [1] - The geopolitical risks have increased due to Trump's statement on the Greenland issue and the strong responses from European countries. [1] - In terms of the monetary attribute, the US December CPI increase met expectations, but household food and rent expenditures rose. The US December employment growth almost stagnated, and the unemployment rate decline alleviated concerns about the deterioration of the labor market. The market expects the Fed not to cut interest rates in January 2026 with a probability of around 95%, and the next possible rate cut may be in June. [1] - Regarding the commodity attribute, the Polish central bank plans to buy up to 150 tons of gold. Silver is supported by tight supply. Platinum has strong demand expectations for platinum - based catalysts in the hydrogen energy industry. Palladium has short - term demand resilience but faces long - term structural pressure in the fuel - vehicle market. [1] - It is expected that precious metals will show short - term volatile strength, medium - term high - level volatility, and long - term step - up trends. [1] Summary by Related Catalogs Gold - Strategy: Conservative investors should wait and see, while aggressive investors can buy on dips. Good position management and strict stop - loss and take - profit are recommended. [2] - Price: Comex gold active contract closed at $4769.10 per ounce, up 3.65% from the previous day and 3.80% from the previous week. London gold was at $4747.80 per ounce, up 1.73% from the previous day and 2.70% from the previous week. [2] - Position and Inventory: Comex gold position was 527,455 hands, up 9.46% from the previous week. LBMA gold inventory was 8598 tons, unchanged from the previous week. [2] Silver - Strategy: Conservative investors should wait and see, while aggressive investors can buy low and sell high. Good position management and strict stop - loss and take - profit are recommended. [4] - Price: Comex silver active contract closed at $89.95 per ounce, up 5.63% from the previous week. London silver was at $93.01 per ounce, up 2.43% from the previous day and 10.63% from the previous week. [4] - Position and Inventory: Comex silver position was 151,513 hands, down 1.13% from the previous week. The total visible inventory was 42,214 tons, down 0.90% from the previous week. [4] Platinum - Strategy: Conservative investors should wait and see, while aggressive investors can buy low and sell high. Good position management and strict stop - loss and take - profit are recommended. [6] - Price: NYMEX platinum active contract closed at $2272.90 per ounce, down 2.03% from the previous day but up 17.68% from the previous week. The platinum main contract on the GQEX closed at 686.95 yuan per gram, up 4.46% from the previous day and 26.60% from the previous week. [7] - Position and Inventory: NYMEX platinum active contract position was 18,095 hands, down 32.56% from the previous day and 21.89% from the previous week. NYMEX platinum total inventory was 21 tons, up 4.80% from the previous week. [7] Palladium - Strategy: Conservative investors should wait and see, while aggressive investors can buy low and sell high. Good position management and strict stop - loss and take - profit are recommended. [10] - Price: NYMEX palladium active contract closed at $1821.00 per ounce, down 7.28% from the previous day but up 5.57% from the previous week. The palladium main contract on the GQEX closed at 529.05 yuan per gram, down 8.54% from the previous day but up 11.01% from the previous week. [10] - Position and Inventory: NYMEX palladium active contract position was 21,860 hands, up 0.86% from the previous day and 2.30% from the previous week. NYMEX palladium total inventory was 6 tons, up 3.49% from the previous week. [10] Key Fundamental Data of Precious Metals - Fed Indicators: The upper limit of the federal funds target rate is 3.75%, down 0.25% from the previous value. The Fed's total assets are $6632.72 billion, up 0.00% from the previous value. [11] - US Economic Indicators: GDP annualized year - on - year growth rate is 2.30%, up 0.30% from the previous value; annualized quarter - on - quarter growth rate is 4.30%, up 0.50% from the previous value. [11] - Geopolitical and Market Indicators: The geopolitical risk index is 295.76, up 62.59% from the previous day and 86.38% from the previous week. The VIX index is 20.09, up 6.63% from the previous day and 25.72% from the previous week. [13]