Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints - For the steel industry, the real - estate data in Q2 and H1 2025 is still weak, indicating the industry is in the process of bottom - building. The market is trading on weak reality and strong expectations, with the strong expectation mainly coming from potential supply - side reforms. For now, the steel market is in a state of weak supply and demand, and with the arrival of hot weather, demand is expected to weaken further and inventory may rise slightly. In the short - term, the iron ore market is expected to maintain a volatile and slightly stronger trend, supported by the decline in port inventory, but the high inventory of port trade minerals should be noted [2][4]. Summary by Directory I. Threaded Rods and Hot - Rolled Coils - **Market Conditions**: The real - estate data is weak, and the central urban work conference did not bring the expected major positive news. Supply and demand are both weak. Last week, threaded rod production decreased, factory inventory rose, social inventory continued to decline, and total inventory also decreased. Apparent demand decreased month - on - month. With hot weather, demand will weaken further and inventory may rise slightly. The market is trading on weak reality and strong expectations, and the futures price has stopped falling and continued the previous medium - term upward trend [2]. - **Operation Suggestion**: Maintain a wait - and - see attitude [2]. - **Data Summary**: The closing price of the threaded rod main contract is 3106 yuan/ton, down 0.26% from the previous day and up 1.40% from last week; the closing price of the hot - rolled coil main contract is 3253 yuan/ton, down 0.18% from the previous day and up 1.97% from last week. The 247 - steel - mill blast furnace operating rate is 83.46%, and the daily average molten iron output is 239.81 million tons, down 0.43% from last week. The national building materials steel mill threaded rod production is 216.66 million tons, down 2.00% from last week; the hot - rolled coil production is 323.14 million tons, down 1.52% from last week [2]. II. Iron Ore - **Market Conditions**: The profitability of steel mills is acceptable, with the profit - making surface of sample steel mills approaching 60%. Last week, the molten iron output of 247 steel mills was 239.8 million tons, a decrease of 1.0 million tons from the previous week. It is expected that the molten iron output will further decline in the near future. The global iron ore shipment is at a relatively high level and rising seasonally. The port inventory is slowly decreasing, which supports the futures price, but the port trade mineral inventory is high. In the short - term, boosted by the rising prices of threaded rods, coking coal, and glass, iron ore is expected to maintain a volatile and slightly stronger trend [4]. - **Operation Suggestion**: Temporarily maintain a wait - and - see attitude and be cautious about chasing up [4]. - **Data Summary**: The settlement price of the DCE iron ore main contract is 773 yuan/dry ton, up 0.78% from the previous day and up 4.96% from last week. Australian iron ore shipments are 15.699 billion tons, down 0.97% from last week; Brazilian iron ore shipments are 7.099 billion tons, up 22.63% from last week. The port inventory is 137.6589 billion tons, down 0.81% from last week [4]. III. Industry News - According to the China Iron and Steel Association, in early July 2025, key steel enterprises produced 20.97 million tons of crude steel, with an average daily output of 2.097 million tons, a 1.5% decrease in daily output month - on - month; 19.31 million tons of pig iron, with an average daily output of 1.931 million tons, a 1.1% decrease in daily output month - on - month; and 19.88 million tons of steel, with an average daily output of 1.988 million tons, an 11.9% decrease in daily output month - on - month. It is estimated that the national daily output of crude steel is 2.71 million tons, a 1.5% decrease; the daily output of pig iron is 2.36 million tons, a 1.1% decrease; and the daily output of steel is 4.09 million tons, a 2.9% decrease [6]. - UMK announced its manganese ore quotation for China in August 2025, with the price of South African semi - carbonate lumps at 3.9 US dollars/ton degree (up 0.05) [7]. - Rio Tinto released its Q2 production and sales report. In terms of production, the iron ore output of the Pilbara business in Q2 was 83.7 million tons, a 20% increase quarter - on - quarter and a 5% increase year - on - year. In terms of shipments, the iron ore shipments of the Pilbara business in Q2 were 79.9 million tons, a 13% increase quarter - on - quarter and a 1% decrease year - on - year [7].

投资咨询系列报告 1、美国至7月11日当周EIA原油库存减少385.9万桶，汽油库存增加339.9万桶，精炼油库存增加417.3万桶，库欣原油库存增加21.3万桶，战略石油储备库存减少30万桶。 投资咨询系列报告 山金期货原油日报 更新时间：2025年07月17日08时15分 | 投资咨询系列报告 | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 山金期货原油日报 | 更新时间：2025年07月17日08时15分 | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | 原油 | 数据类别 | 指标 | 单位 | 7月1日 | 较上日 | 较上周 | | | | | | | | | | 绝对值 | 百分比 | 绝对值 | 百分比 | Sc | 元/桶 | 499.40 | 2.70 | 0.54% | -19.20 | -3.70% | | | | | | 原油期货 | WTI | 美元/桶 | 65.53 | ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - Today, precious metals fluctuated weakly. The main contract of Shanghai Gold closed down 0.20%, and the main contract of Shanghai Silver closed down 0.35% [1]. - In the short - term, the trade war has entered a new stage, and the risks of economic recession and geopolitical changes still exist. The risk of stagflation in the US economy has increased, and strong employment suppresses the expectation of interest rate cuts [1]. - It is expected that precious metals will show a pattern of weak gold and strong silver in the short - term, high - level fluctuations in the medium - term, and a step - by - step upward trend in the long - term [1]. 3. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Gold - **Core Logic**: In the short - term, the trade war has entered a new stage, with risks of economic recession and geopolitical changes. The risk of stagflation in the US economy has increased, and strong employment suppresses the expectation of interest rate cuts [1]. - **Safe - haven Attribute**: Trump escalated the trade war, threatening to impose a 30% tariff on the EU and Mexico. The EU threatened counter - measures, and Trump said he was open to negotiations [1]. - **Monetary Attribute**: The US CPI in June increased by 2.7% year - on - year, the highest since February, in line with market expectations. The core CPI in June increased by 2.9% year - on - year and 0.2% month - on - month, both lower than market expectations. The overall US employment growth was stronger than expected, and the number of initial jobless claims last week unexpectedly dropped to a seven - week low. The market currently expects the Fed's next interest rate cut to be in September, and the expected total interest rate cut space in 2025 has fallen back to around 50 basis points. The US dollar index and US Treasury yields fluctuated strongly [1]. - **Commodity Attribute**: The CRB commodity index rebounded under pressure, and the strong RMB suppressed domestic prices [1]. - **Strategy**: Conservative investors should wait and see, while aggressive investors can buy low and sell high. It is recommended to manage positions well and set strict stop - loss and take - profit levels [2]. 3.2 Silver - **Price Anchor**: The gold price trend is the anchor for the silver price [5]. - **Funding and Inventory**: CFTC silver net long positions and iShare silver ETF reduced positions again. Recently, the visible inventory of silver decreased slightly [5]. - **Strategy**: Conservative investors should wait and see, while aggressive investors can buy low and sell high. It is recommended to manage positions well and set strict stop - loss and take - profit levels [6]. 3.3 Fundamental Key Data - **Federal Reserve - related Data**: The upper limit of the federal funds target rate is 4.50%, the discount rate is 4.50%, the reserve balance interest rate (IORB) is 4.40%, and the Fed's total assets are 67,132.36 billion US dollars. M2 increased by 4.50% year - on - year [8]. - **Bond and Currency - related Data**: The 10 - year US Treasury real yield is 2.63, the US dollar index is 98.63, the US Treasury yield spread (3 - month to 10 - year) is 0.47, the US - EU yield spread (10 - year bond yield) is 1.92, and the US - China yield spread (10 - year bond yield) is 3.34 [8][10]. - **Inflation Data**: The US CPI increased by 2.70% year - on - year and 0.30% month - on - month, and the core CPI increased by 2.90% year - on - year and 0.30% month - on - month [10]. - **Economic Growth Data**: The US GDP increased by 1.90% year - on - year (annualized) and decreased by 0.50% quarter - on - quarter (annualized), the unemployment rate is 4.10%, and non - farm payrolls increased by 14.70 million [10]. - **Labor Market Data**: The labor participation rate is 62.60%, the average hourly wage growth rate is 3.70%, and the number of initial jobless claims last week was 22.70 million [10]. - **Real Estate Market Data**: The NAHB housing market index is 32.00, existing home sales are 403.00 million units, new home sales are 56.00 million units, and new home starts are 115.20 million units [10]. - **Consumption Data**: Retail sales increased by 4.71% year - on - year and decreased by 0.22% month - on - month, and personal consumption expenditure increased by 4.55% year - on - year and decreased by 0.14% month - on - month [10]. - **Industrial Data**: The industrial production index increased by 0.60% year - on - year and decreased by 0.22% month - on - month, and the capacity utilization rate is 77.43% [10]. - **Central Bank Gold Reserves and Foreign Exchange Reserves**: China's central bank gold reserves are 2,298.55 tons, the US's are 8,133.46 tons, and the world's are 36,250.15 tons. The US dollar accounts for 57.80% of IMF foreign exchange reserves, the euro accounts for 19.83%, and the RMB accounts for 2.18% [10][11]. - **Safe - haven and Commodity Attributes**: The geopolitical risk index is 122.08, the VIX index is 17.52, the CRB commodity index is 302.70, and the offshore RMB exchange rate is 7.1738 [11]. - **Fed Interest Rate Expectations**: According to the CME FedWatch tool, the probability of different interest rate ranges at different Fed meetings from 2025 to 2026 is provided [12].

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No investment rating information is provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints - **Steel Products**: The steel market is currently trading on weak reality and strong expectations. The real - estate data is still weak, and the industry is in the process of bottom - building. The steel market is in a state of weak supply and demand, and with the arrival of high - temperature weather, demand is expected to weaken further, and inventory may rise slightly. Strong expectations mainly come from potential supply - side reforms. Technically, the futures prices face resistance after a pulsed rise [2]. - **Iron Ore**: The short - term iron ore market is expected to maintain a volatile and slightly stronger trend under the boost of news. However, in the long - term, the futures price is in a downward cycle. With the end of the downstream consumption peak and steel mill production restrictions, iron ore demand is expected to decline, and the relatively high port inventory and trade ore inventory ratio put pressure on the price [4]. 3. Summary by Directory **I. Threaded Bars and Hot - Rolled Coils** - **Market Background**: The economic data for the second quarter and the first half of 2025 shows that the real - estate industry is still weak. The Central Urban Work Conference did not bring the expected major positive news. The supply - demand data from My Steel shows a state of weak supply and demand [2]. - **Technical Analysis**: After a pulsed rise, the futures prices encounter resistance, with the previous gap and the annual line as resistance levels [2]. - **Operation Suggestion**: Maintain a wait - and - see attitude [2]. - **Data Summary**: - **Prices**: The closing prices of threaded bar and hot - rolled coil futures and spot prices show certain fluctuations. For example, the closing price of the threaded bar futures main contract is 3114 yuan/ton, down 0.76% from the previous day [2]. - **Production**: The production of threaded bars and hot - rolled coils decreased last week. The national building materials steel mill threaded bar production was 216.66 million tons, down 2.00% from the previous week [2]. - **Inventory**: The total inventory of five major steel products decreased, with the social inventory of threaded bars decreasing and the factory inventory increasing slightly [2]. - **Trading Volume**: The trading volume in the spot market decreased, such as the 7 - day moving average of the national building steel trading volume being 18.67 million tons, down 13.38% from the previous day [2]. **II. Iron Ore** - **Supply - Demand Situation**: The steel mill profitability is acceptable, but with the end of the consumption peak and production restrictions, iron ore demand is expected to decline. The global iron ore shipment is at a relatively high level and rising seasonally, and the port inventory decline rate is slowing down, which puts pressure on prices [4]. - **Technical Analysis**: The futures price is in a long - term downward cycle, and the recent short - term rise is mainly affected by news, facing resistance from the previous gap and the annual line [4]. - **Data Summary**: - **Prices**: The settlement price of the DCE iron ore futures main contract is 767 yuan/dry ton, up 4.64% from the previous week. Different iron ore powder prices in ports also show various changes [4][5]. - **Supply**: The global iron ore shipment is rising, with Australian shipments at 1569.9 million tons, down 0.97% from the previous week, and Brazilian shipments at 709.9 million tons, up 22.63% from the previous week [5]. - **Inventory**: The port inventory is 13765.89 million tons, down 0.81% from the previous week, and the trade ore inventory ratio is relatively high [5]. **III. Industry News** - The price of coke has been raised, with wet - quenched coke prices in Tangshan and Xingtai rising by 50 yuan/ton and dry - quenched coke prices rising by 55 yuan/ton. Some steel mills in Shandong have also raised their coke purchase prices [7]. - The first round of coke price increases has been fully implemented, and the price of coking coal in some origin auctions has risen significantly. The import Mongolian coal market has high - level quotations with limited transactions. The three major ports have resumed normal customs clearance, and the inventory at the Ganqimaodu Port has dropped to 3 million tons [7]. - From January to June, the national real - estate development investment was 4665.8 billion yuan, a year - on - year decrease of 11.2%, and the housing construction area decreased by 9.1% year - on - year [7].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided in the given content. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - Today, precious metals fluctuated with an upward bias. The main contract of Shanghai Gold closed up 0.25%, and the main contract of Shanghai Silver closed up 0.52%. It is expected that precious metals will show a pattern of gold being weaker than silver in the short - term, fluctuate at a high level in the medium - term, and rise step - by - step in the long - term [1]. - The core logic is that in the short - term, the trade war has entered a new stage, and there are still risks of economic recession and geopolitical changes. The risk of stagflation in the US economy has increased, and strong employment has suppressed the expectation of interest rate cuts [1]. - For the strategy of both gold and silver, conservative investors are advised to wait and see, while aggressive investors can buy on dips. It is recommended to manage positions well and set strict stop - loss and take - profit levels [2][6]. 3. Summary by Related Directory Gold - **Core Logic**: Short - term trade war in a new stage, economic recession and geopolitical risks remain; US economic stagflation risk increases, and strong employment suppresses interest rate cut expectations. In terms of the safe - haven attribute, Trump escalated the trade war. Regarding the monetary attribute, Fed officials have different views on interest rate prospects, and strong employment data has reduced the possibility of near - term interest rate cuts. In terms of the commodity attribute, the CRB commodity index rebounds under pressure, and the strong RMB suppresses domestic prices [1]. - **Data**: Comex gold main contract closed at $3352.10 per ounce, down $18.20 (-0.54%) from the previous day and up $5.70 (0.17%) from last week. London gold was at $3351.15 per ounce, down $0.95 (-0.03%) from the previous day and up $35.80 (1.08%) from last week. Shanghai Gold main contract closed at 780.40 yuan per gram, down 1.00 yuan (-0.13%) from the previous day and up 4.18 yuan (0.54%) from last week [2]. - **Net Position Ranking**: Among the top 10 net long positions of Shanghai Gold in futures companies of the Shanghai Futures Exchange, the top 5 totaled 100,900.00, an increase of 4,837.00 (24.93%); the top 10 totaled 129,456.00, an increase of 4,908.00 (31.98%); the top 20 totaled 153,715.00, an increase of 7,135.00 (37.98%). Among the top 10 net short positions, the top 5 totaled 12,011.00, a decrease of 69.00 (2.97%); the top 10 totaled 17,864.00, an increase of 73.00 (4.41%); the top 20 totaled 21,371.00, an increase of 1,011.00 (5.28%) [3]. Silver - **Core Logic**: The gold price trend is the anchor for the silver price. In terms of the capital side, CFTC silver net long positions and iShare silver ETF have reduced positions again. In terms of inventory, the recent visible inventory of silver has decreased slightly [5]. - **Data**: Comex silver main contract closed at $38.41 per ounce, down $0.67 (-1.70%) from the previous day and up $1.47 (3.98%) from last week. London silver was at $39.00 per ounce, up $1.50 (3.99%) from the previous day and up $2.75 (7.59%) from last week. Shanghai Silver main contract closed at 9225.00 yuan per kilogram, up 18.00 yuan (0.20%) from the previous day and up 272.00 yuan (3.04%) from last week [6]. - **Net Position Ranking**: Among the top 10 net long positions of Shanghai Silver in futures companies of the Shanghai Futures Exchange, the top 5 totaled 128,440.00, an increase of 2,145.00 (12.81%); the top 10 totaled 184,237.00, an increase of 295.00 (18.38%); the top 20 totaled 240,513.00, an increase of 1,291.00 (23.99%). Among the top 10 net short positions, the top 5 totaled 55,412.00, a decrease of 157.00 (5.53%); the top 10 totaled 86,681.00, a decrease of 1,753.00 (8.65%); the top 20 totaled 108,867.00, a decrease of 183.00 (10.86%) [7]. Fundamental Key Data - **Monetary Attribute**: The upper limit of the federal funds target rate is 4.50%, the discount rate is 4.50%, the reserve balance interest rate (IORB) is 4.40%. The Fed's total assets are $67132.36 billion. The 10 - year US Treasury real yield is 2.59, up 0.06 (2.37%) from the previous day and up 0.02 (0.78%) from last week. The US dollar index is 98.11, up 0.25 (0.26%) from the previous day and up 0.57 (0.58%) from last week [8]. - **Other Data**: The CPI (year - on - year) is 2.40%, the core CPI (year - on - year) is 2.80%. The unemployment rate is 4.10%. The geopolitical risk index is 122.08, up 70.59 (137.10%) from the previous day and down 22.80 (-15.74%) from last week. The VIX index is 16.84, down 0.36 (-2.09%) from the previous day and up 0.03 (0.18%) from last week [10][11]. - **Fed Interest Rate Expectation**: According to the CME FedWatch tool, the probability distribution of the Fed's interest rate in different periods from 2025 to 2026 is provided, showing the changing market expectations for the Fed's interest rate [12].

Report Summary 1. Investment Rating No investment rating for the industry is provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints - The black commodities in the market are currently trading on the basis of weak reality and strong expectations. With the arrival of high - temperature weather, the demand for steel products is expected to weaken further, and the inventory is likely to rise slightly. For iron ore, although it may maintain a slightly stronger oscillatory trend in the short - term due to news, the overall downward long - term cycle and supply - demand factors pose pressure on its price [2][4]. 3. Summary by Sections 3.1 Threaded Steel and Hot - Rolled Coil - **Supply and Demand**: Last week, the production of threaded steel decreased, factory inventory increased, social inventory continued to decline, and the total inventory also decreased. The apparent demand decreased month - on - month, indicating a situation of weak supply and demand. The 247 - steel - mill blast furnace operating rate was 83.46%, with a decrease of 0.36 percentage points compared to the previous period. The daily average hot - metal output of 247 steel mills was 239.81 million tons, a decrease of 1.04 million tons (- 0.43%) compared to the previous week. The national building materials steel mill threaded steel production was 216.66 million tons, a decrease of 4.42 million tons (- 2.00%) compared to the previous week, and the hot - roll production was 323.14 million tons, a decrease of 5.00 million tons (- 1.52%) [2][3]. - **Price and Basis**: The closing price of the threaded - steel main contract was 3138 yuan/ton, up 0.16% from the previous day and 2.52% from the previous week; the closing price of the hot - rolled coil main contract was 3276 yuan/ton, up 0.09% from the previous day and 2.66% from the previous week. The threaded - steel main basis was 72 yuan/ton, a decrease of 15 yuan from the previous period, and the hot - rolled coil main basis was 24 yuan/ton, a decrease of 3 yuan from the previous period [3]. - **Inventory**: The social inventory of five major steel products was 914.01 million tons, a decrease of 2.12 million tons (- 0.23% - 1.44%) compared to the previous week. The social inventory of threaded steel was 359.49 million tons, a decrease of 5.25 million tons, and the social inventory of hot - rolled coils was 267.75 million tons, an increase of 1.14 million tons (0.43%) [3]. - **Operation Suggestion**: Temporarily maintain a wait - and - see attitude. Short - term long positions can be considered after a full adjustment, and investors with empty positions should not chase the rising price [2]. 3.2 Iron Ore - **Supply and Demand**: The profitability of steel mills is acceptable, with nearly 60% of sample steel mills making a profit. The hot - metal output of 247 steel mills last week was 239.8 million tons, a decrease of 1.0 million tons compared to the previous week. With the end of the downstream consumption peak and steel - mill production restrictions, the hot - metal output is expected to decline further. The global iron - ore shipment is at a relatively high level and is rising seasonally. The port inventory decline rate has slowed down, and the proportion of trade - mine inventory is relatively high, exerting pressure on the futures price [4]. - **Price and Basis**: The settlement price of the DCE iron - ore main contract was 766.5 yuan/dry ton, up 0.33% from the previous day and 4.86% from the previous week. The basis of Macfarlane powder (Qingdao Port) against the DCE iron - ore main contract was - 33.5 yuan/ton, a decrease of 2.5 yuan from the previous period [5]. - **Inventory and Shipment**: The Australian iron - ore shipment was 1569.9 million tons, a decrease of 0.97% compared to the previous week; the Brazilian iron - ore shipment was 709.9 million tons, an increase of 22.63% compared to the previous week. The total arrival volume at the six northern ports was 1147.9 million tons, a decrease of 18.70% compared to the previous week. The total port inventory was 13765.89 million tons, a decrease of 0.81% compared to the previous week [5]. - **Industry News**: The total global iron - ore shipment was 2987.1 million tons, a decrease of 7.8 million tons compared to the previous period. The total shipment from Australia and Brazil was 2558.8 million tons, an increase of 93.8 million tons compared to the previous period. In early July, the social inventory of five major steel products in 21 cities increased by 0.8% compared to the previous period, ending 11 consecutive periods of decline [6].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Views of the Report - The short - term trade war has entered a new stage, with risks of economic recession and geopolitical unrest still existing. The risk of stagflation in the US economy has increased, and strong employment has suppressed expectations of interest rate cuts. [1] - It is expected that precious metals will show a pattern of weak gold and strong silver in the short term, fluctuate at high levels in the medium term, and rise step - by - step in the long term. [1] - Gold price trends serve as an anchor for silver prices. In terms of capital, CFTC silver net long positions and iShare silver ETF have reduced their positions again. In terms of inventory, the recent visible inventory of silver has decreased slightly. [5] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Gold - **Market Performance**: Today, precious metals showed a pattern of weak gold and strong silver. The main contract of Shanghai Gold closed up 1.06%, and the main contract of Shanghai Silver closed up 2.11%. [1] - **Core Logic**: Short - term trade war enters a new stage; economic recession and geopolitical risks remain; US economic stagflation risk increases; strong employment suppresses interest - rate cut expectations. [1] - **Safe - Haven Attribute**: Trump escalated the trade war, threatening to impose a 30% tariff on the EU and Mexico. [1] - **Monetary Attribute**: Fed officials' views on interest - rate prospects differ due to different expectations of how tariffs may affect inflation. Strong US employment growth has eliminated the possibility of a near - term Fed interest - rate cut. The market now expects the next Fed interest - rate cut to be in September, and the expected total interest - rate cut space in 2025 has fallen back to around 50 basis points. The US dollar index and US Treasury yields are oscillating strongly. [1] - **Commodity Attribute**: The CRB commodity index has faced pressure in its rebound, and the strong RMB has suppressed domestic prices. [1] - **Strategy**: Conservative investors should wait and see, while aggressive investors can buy on dips. It is recommended to manage positions well and set strict stop - loss and take - profit levels. [2] Silver - **Price Anchor**: Gold price trends are the anchor for silver prices. [5] - **Capital and Inventory**: CFTC silver net long positions and iShare silver ETF have reduced their positions again, and the recent visible inventory of silver has decreased slightly. [5] - **Strategy**: Conservative investors should wait and see, while aggressive investors can buy on dips. It is recommended to manage positions well and set strict stop - loss and take - profit levels. [6] Fundamental Key Data - **Fed - Related Data**: The upper limit of the federal funds target rate is 4.50%, the discount rate is 4.50%, the reserve balance interest rate (IORB) is 4.40%, the Fed's total assets are $67,132.36 billion, M2 year - on - year growth is 4.50%. [8] - **US Treasury and Dollar Data**: The 10 - year US Treasury real yield is 2.60%, the US dollar index is 97.86, the US Treasury yield spread (3 - month to 10 - year) is 0.51, and the US Treasury yield spread (2 - year to 10 - year) is - 0.02. [8][10] - **Inflation Data**: CPI year - on - year is 2.40%, CPI month - on - month is 0.20%, core CPI year - on - year is 2.80%, core CPI month - on - month is 0.20%, PCE price index year - on - year is 2.34%, and core PCE price index year - on - year is 2.68%. [10] - **Economic Growth Data**: US GDP annualized year - on - year growth is 1.90%, GDP annualized quarter - on - quarter growth is - 0.50%, the unemployment rate is 4.10%, and non - farm payrolls monthly change is 14.70 million. [10] - **Other Data**: The geopolitical risk index is 132.88, the VIX index is 17.65, the CRB commodity index is 303.52, and the offshore RMB exchange rate is 7.1706. [11] Fed's Latest Interest - Rate Expectations The probability distribution of the Fed's interest - rate levels at different meetings from July 2025 to December 2026 is presented in a table, showing the changing market expectations for the Fed's interest - rate decisions over time. [12]

Report Overview - Report Name: Shanjin Futures Black Sector Daily Report - Update Time: August 14, 2025, 08:23 1. Investment Rating - No investment rating for the industry is provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints - The black commodities have experienced pulse - like price increases recently due to news - related factors. The market is currently trading on weak current realities and strong expectations. For both steel products and iron ore, short - term long positions should be closed at high prices, and new short - term long positions can be considered after sufficient adjustments. Empty - position investors should avoid chasing the rising market [2][3][4]. 3. Summary by Section 3.1 Threaded Rebar and Hot - Rolled Coil - **Supply and Demand**: Last week, the production of threaded rebar decreased, factory inventories increased, social inventories continued to decline, and total inventories decreased. Apparent demand decreased month - on - month, indicating a situation of weak supply and demand. With the arrival of hot weather, demand is expected to weaken further, and inventories are likely to rise slightly [2]. - **Technical Analysis**: The futures price is rising steadily, but it faces resistance from previous gaps and the annual moving average [2]. - **Operation Suggestion**: Short - term long positions should be closed at high prices. After sufficient adjustments, short - term long positions can be established again. Empty - position investors should not chase the rising market [2]. - **Data Summary**: - **Price**: The closing prices of rebar and hot - rolled coil futures and spot prices all increased. For example, the closing price of the rebar main contract was 3123 yuan/ton, up 1.96% from the previous week [3]. - **Production**: The production of rebar and hot - rolled coil decreased. The national building materials steel mill rebar production was 216.66 million tons, a week - on - week decrease of 2.00% [3]. - **Inventory**: The social inventory of the five major varieties decreased by 0.23% week - on - week, while the factory inventory increased by 0.42% [3]. 3.2 Iron Ore - **Supply and Demand**: The profitability of steel mills is acceptable, with nearly 60% of sample steel mills making a profit. Last week, the molten iron output of 247 steel mills was 239.8 million tons, a week - on - week decrease of 1.0 million tons. With the end of the downstream consumption peak and steel mill production restrictions, molten iron output is expected to decline further. The global iron ore shipment is at a relatively high level and is rising seasonally. The current port inventory decline rate has slowed down, and the proportion of trade ore inventory is relatively high, exerting obvious pressure on the futures price [3][4]. - **Technical Analysis**: The futures price is in a long - term downward cycle. The short - term rise is mainly due to news factors, and it faces resistance from previous gaps and the annual moving average [4]. - **Operation Suggestion**: Short - term long positions should be closed at high prices. After sufficient adjustments, short - term long positions can be established again. Empty - position investors should not chase the rising market [4]. - **Data Summary**: - **Price**: The settlement prices of iron ore futures and spot prices increased. For example, the settlement price of the DCE iron ore main contract was 763.5 yuan/dry ton, up 4.16% from the previous week [4]. - **Shipment**: The Australian iron ore shipment was 1585.2 million tons, a week - on - week decrease of 8.40%, and the Brazilian iron ore shipment was 578.9 million tons, a week - on - week decrease of 25.47% [4]. - **Inventory**: The total port inventory was 13765.89 million tons, a week - on - week decrease of 0.81% [4]. 3.3 Industry News - China Iron and Steel Industry Association's vice - president Wang Yingsheng stated that in the short term, domestic steel demand in the second half of 2025 is likely to decline. In the long term, China's steel demand will remain at a peak - level range for a long time. It is predicted that China's crude steel output will be between 800 million and 900 million tons in 2035 and will remain at around 800 million tons after 2050 [6]. - The China Coking Industry Association decided to raise the prices of coking products. From July 14, the price of tamping wet - quenched coke for steel mill customers will be increased by 70 yuan/ton, tamping dry - quenched coke by 75 yuan/ton, and top - charged coke by 95 yuan/ton [6]. - The coke price in the Xingtai market is planned to be raised, with tamping wet - quenched coke up 70 yuan/ton, tamping dry - quenched coke up 75 yuan/ton, top - charged wet - quenched coke up 90 yuan/ton, and top - charged dry - quenched coke up 95 yuan/ton [7]. - A coal mine in Changzhi with a production capacity of 7.1 million tons resumed production on July 12, which will relieve the shortage of lean coal supply in the region to some extent [7]. - According to Gangyin E - commerce, the total urban inventory this week was 725.69 million tons, a week - on - week increase of 0.28% [8].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - Today, precious metals showed a weak and volatile trend, with the main contract of Shanghai Gold closing up 0.49% and the main contract of Shanghai Silver closing up 0.22% [1] - In the short - term, the trade war has entered a new stage, and there are still risks of economic recession and geopolitical changes; the risk of stagflation in the US economy has increased, and strong employment has suppressed the expectation of interest rate cuts [1] - It is expected that precious metals will be volatile and strong in the short - term, fluctuate at a high level in the medium - term, and rise step - by - step in the long - term [1] - The price trend of gold is the anchor for the price of silver. In terms of capital, the net long position of CFTC silver and iShare silver ETF have been reduced again. In terms of inventory, the visible inventory of silver has increased slightly recently [5] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Gold - **Market Performance**: The main contract of Shanghai Gold closed up 0.49%, and the main contract of London Gold decreased by 0.50%. The main contract of Comex gold increased by 0.31% [1][2] - **Core Logic**: Short - term trade war risks, US stagflation risk, and strong employment suppressing interest rate cuts [1] - **Attributes Analysis** - **Safe - haven**: Trump's new tariff measures on 14 countries, including 25% on Japan and South Korea, 50% on copper, and up to 200% on drugs [1] - **Monetary**: The Fed's meeting minutes show low support for a July interest rate cut, and strong employment rules out the possibility of a near - term rate cut. The market expects the next rate cut in September, with the total rate cut space in 2025 falling back to around 50 basis points [1] - **Commodity**: The CRB commodity index's rebound is under pressure, and the strong RMB suppresses domestic prices [1] - **Strategy**: Conservative investors should wait and see, while aggressive investors can buy low and sell high. Good position management and strict stop - loss and take - profit are recommended [2] Silver - **Market Performance**: The main contract of Shanghai Silver closed up 0.63%, and the main contract of London Silver decreased by 1.74%. The main contract of Comex silver decreased by 0.27% [6] - **Core Logic**: Gold price is the anchor for silver price, with reduced capital positions and slightly increased visible inventory [5] - **Strategy**: Conservative investors should wait and see, while aggressive investors can buy low and sell high. Good position management and strict stop - loss and take - profit are recommended [6] Fundamental Key Data - **Fed - related Data**: The upper limit of the federal funds target rate is 4.50%, the discount rate is 4.50%, the reserve balance rate is 4.40%, and the Fed's total assets are $67103.64 billion [8] - **Inflation Data**: CPI year - on - year is 2.40%, core CPI year - on - year is 2.80%, PCE price index year - on - year is 2.34%, and core PCE price index year - on - year is 2.68% [10] - **Economic Growth Data**: GDP annualized year - on - year is 1.90%, GDP annualized quarter - on - quarter is - 0.50%, and the unemployment rate is 4.10% [10] - **Other Data**: The ten - year US Treasury real yield is 2.57%, the US dollar index is 97.55, and the geopolitical risk index is 132.88 [8][11] Fed's Latest Interest Rate Expectations - The probability of different interest rate ranges at each Fed meeting from July 2025 to December 2026 is provided, showing the market's expectations for future interest rate changes [12]

Report Summary 1. Investment Rating No investment rating for the industry is provided in the report. 2. Core Views - The recent rise in black - series commodity prices may not be sustainable as the main goal of the Central Financial and Economic Commission meeting is anti - involution in downstream manufacturing rather than supply - side reform in the black and building materials industries. The real estate market is still in the process of bottoming out, and the current market is trading on weak reality and strong expectations [2]. - For iron ore, with the end of the downstream consumption peak and steel mill production restrictions, iron ore production is expected to decline. Although it may maintain a slightly stronger oscillation in the short term, it is in a long - term downward cycle [5]. 3. Section Summaries 3.1 Thread and Hot - Rolled Coil - **Market Analysis**: The May economic data was slightly below expectations, and the June PMI improved. The real estate market is still bottoming out, with the total sales of top 100 real estate enterprises from January to June down 11.8% year - on - year. The supply - demand situation shows weak supply and demand, and demand is expected to weaken further with high - temperature weather. Technically, it's uncertain whether the futures price can break through upwards [2]. - **Operation Suggestions**: Short - term long positions can be held and should be closed at high prices. The medium - term strategy is to wait for the top signal and then short at high prices [3]. - **Data Highlights**: The closing price of the rebar main contract was 3063 yuan/ton, up 2.00% from last week; the hot - rolled coil main contract was 3191 yuan/ton, up 1.75% from last week. The national building materials steel trading volume (7 - day moving average) was 16.05 tons, down 20.54% from last week [3]. 3.2 Iron Ore - **Market Analysis**: The profitability of steel mills is acceptable, but iron ore production is expected to decline due to the end of the consumption peak and production restrictions. The global shipment is high, and port inventory decline is slowing, putting pressure on futures prices. It may maintain a slightly stronger oscillation in the short term but faces resistance [5]. - **Operation Suggestions**: Short - term long positions can be lightly held and closed at high prices. The medium - term strategy is to wait for the top signal and then short at high prices [5]. - **Data Highlights**: The settlement price of the DCE iron ore main contract was 733 yuan/dry ton, up 3.46% from last week. Australian iron ore shipments were 1585.2 tons, down 8.40% from last week; Brazilian shipments were 578.9 tons, down 25.47% from last week [5]. 3.3 Industry News On July 9, in the Lvliang coking coal online auction market, the average transaction price of Lishi low - sulfur primary coking coal was 1123 yuan/ton, up 123 yuan/ton from the previous period on June 25 [7].