Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content Core Viewpoints - The black market is in the off - season of consumption, with both supply and demand being weak. The winter storage still takes some time. The strong rise of the stock market and optimistic policy expectations boost confidence, but the "anti - involution" expectation decline affects market sentiment [2] - For iron ore, the current market is in the consumption off - season, and the iron - water output is likely to decline seasonally. Although the iron - water output of 247 sample steel mills rebounded last week, it is expected to be a short - term phenomenon. The increase in port inventory suppresses the futures price, while the sharp rebound of coking coal and coke supports the iron ore price. A medium - level upward trend is unfolding [3] Summary by Directory I. Threaded Rods and Hot - Rolled Coils - **Supply and Demand**: Last week, the output of threaded rods increased, the overall inventory continued to decline, the apparent demand for threaded rods decreased, the overall apparent demand for the five major varieties declined, the inventory increased, and the output increased slightly. The steel mill output may continue to decline in the off - season [2] - **Operation Suggestion**: Hold long positions and conduct medium - term trading. Avoid chasing up or selling down [2] - **Data**: - **Prices**: The closing prices of the main contracts of threaded rods and hot - rolled coils increased, and the spot prices also showed an upward trend [2] - **Basis and Spreads**: The basis of the main contracts of threaded rods and hot - rolled coils changed, and the spreads between different futures contracts also changed [2] - **Other Prices**: The prices of wire rods, medium - thick plates, and cold - rolled coils changed slightly, while the price of Tangshan billets decreased and the price of Zhangjiagang scrap steel increased slightly [2] - **Production**: The blast furnace operating rate and daily iron - water output of 247 steel mills increased, the proportion of profitable steel mills decreased, the output of threaded rods and hot - rolled coils increased, the capacity utilization rate and operating rate of independent electric - arc furnace steel mills increased, and the output of electric - arc furnace steel mill threaded rods increased significantly [2] - **Inventory**: The social and steel mill inventories of the five major varieties and threaded rods increased, the social inventory of hot - rolled coils increased, and the steel mill inventory decreased. The billet inventory in the Tangshan area increased significantly [2] - **Trading Volume**: The 7 - day moving average of the national building steel trading volume decreased, and the weekly wire and screw terminal procurement volume in Shanghai increased significantly [2] - **Apparent Demand**: The apparent demand for the five major varieties and threaded rods decreased, and the apparent demand for hot - rolled coils decreased slightly [2] - **Futures Warehouse Receipts**: The number of registered warehouse receipts for threaded rods decreased, and that for hot - rolled coils increased [2] II. Iron Ore - **Demand and Supply**: The overall output of the five major steel products increased last week, but the apparent demand decreased. The iron - water output is likely to decline seasonally. The global shipment decreased, and the increasing port inventory suppresses the futures price. The sharp rebound of coking coal and coke supports the iron ore price [3] - **Operation Suggestion**: Hold long positions and conduct medium - term trading [3] - **Data**: - **Prices**: The settlement prices of iron ore spot and futures contracts increased, and the prices of different iron ore varieties in ports also increased [4] - **Basis and Spreads**: The basis and spreads between different iron ore futures contracts changed [4] - **Shipment and Freight**: The Australian and Brazilian iron ore shipments decreased, and the BCI freight rates and exchange rates changed [4] - **Arrival and Port Inventory**: The arrival volume of iron ore in northern six ports decreased, the average daily port clearance volume decreased, and the total port inventory and port trade ore inventory increased, while the sinter powder inventory of 64 sample steel mills decreased [4] - **Domestic Production**: The iron - concentrate output of national sample mines increased [4] - **Futures Warehouse Receipts**: The number of iron ore futures warehouse receipts decreased [4] III. Industry News - The Dalian Commodity Exchange issued an announcement on publicly soliciting opinions on adjusting the reference standard for inspection methods in the iron ore delivery quality standard [6] - From January 5th to January 11th, 2026, the total arrival volume of iron ore at 47 ports in China increased, while that at the northern six ports decreased. The global iron ore shipment decreased [6] - The online auction non - delivery rate of coking coal decreased last week, and the auction prices mostly declined [6] - Handan launched a level - II emergency response for heavy pollution weather on January 12th, expected to be lifted around January 17th [7]

投资咨询系列报告 山金期货贵金属策略报告 更新时间：2026年01月12日16时47分 报告导读： 今日贵金属震荡偏强，沪金主力收涨2.57%，沪银主力收涨14.42%，铂金主力收涨4.65%，钯金主力收涨涨3.59%。①核心逻辑， 短期避险方面，贸易战避险消退，地缘异动风险上升；美国就业走弱通胀温和，降息预期支撑仍存。②避险属性方面，美联储主席 鲍威尔因总部翻修案深陷刑事调查这一"黑天鹅"事件，直接动摇了货币政策独立性与美元信用基石，导致长期通胀预期脱锚。特 朗普政府正在讨论获取格陵兰岛的方案，包括军事选项。美国抓捕马杜罗震惊世界，地缘异动风险上升。③货币属性方面，美国 12月就业增长几乎停滞，失业率下降缓解劳动力市场恶化担忧。美国11月核心CPI同比上涨2.6%，创下2021年初以来最慢增速， 低于市场预期的3%。美联储12月在重重分歧中下调利率，暗示将暂停行动明年或仅降息一次。鲍威尔指出，美联储的利率政策已 处于良好位置，可以应对未来经济走势。目前市场预期美联储26年1月不降息概率维持在80%附近，下次降息或到4月。美元指数 和美债收益率震荡偏强；④商品属性方面，白银受到供应偏紧支撑。铂金氢能产业铂基催 ...

投资咨询系列报告 山金期货黑色板块日报 一、螺纹、热卷 更新时间：2026年01月12日08时26分 报告导读： 供需方面，上周的数据显示螺纹产量回升，整体库存继续回落，螺纹表观需求有所下降，五大品种表观需求整体回落，库存增加，产量小幅回升。 由于钢厂毛利大幅回落，且市场整体处于消费淡季，钢厂产量仍有可能延续下降的趋势 。整体来看，在消费淡季，供需双弱，冬储仍需要一段时间 才能到来，股市强势上攻以及政策面的乐观预期提振信心 ， 但市场监管总局约谈光伏协会及相关企业导致对 "反内卷"预期有所回落，对市场情绪有 一定影响。 操作建议： 多单继续持有，中线交易。不可以追涨杀跌 表1：螺纹、热卷相关数据 | 表2：铁矿石相关数据 | 数据类别 | 指标 | 单位 | 最新 | 较上日 | 较上周 | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | ...

今日贵金属震荡偏强，沪金主力收涨0.68%，沪银主力收跌0.90%，铂金主力收涨1.11%，钯金主力收涨涨6.01%。①核心逻辑， 短期避险方面，贸易战避险消退，地缘异动风险上升；美国就业走弱通胀温和，降息预期支撑仍存。②避险属性方面，特朗普政府 正在讨论获取格陵兰岛的方案，包括军事选项。美国抓捕马杜罗震惊世界，地缘异动风险上升。③货币属性方面，美国去年12月 "小非农"温和复苏。美国11月职位空缺降至14个月新低，表明劳动力需求减弱。美国11月核心CPI同比上涨2.6%，创下2021年 初以来最慢增速，低于市场预期的3%。美联储12月在重重分歧中下调利率，暗示将暂停行动明年或仅降息一次。鲍威尔指出，美 联储的利率政策已处于良好位置，可以应对未来经济走势。目前市场预期美联储26年1月不降息概率维持在80%附近，下次降息或 到4月。美元指数和美债收益率震荡偏强；④商品属性方面，白银受到供应偏紧支撑。铂金氢能产业铂基催化剂需求预期强劲。钯 金短期需求仍有韧性，长期面临燃油车市场结构性压力。CRB商品指数震荡偏弱，人民币升值利空内价格。⑤资金面，彭博大宗商 品指数 (BCOM)和高盛商品指数 (GSCI)将启动年度 ...

1. Industry Investment Rating - No investment rating for the industry is provided in the report. 2. Core Views - In the steel market, the supply - demand situation is weak during the consumption off - season. Steel mill production may continue to decline due to falling margins and the off - season. Although macro - level confidence is enhanced, market supervision actions have an impact on market sentiment. For the iron ore market, demand may decline seasonally, supply remains high, and the rising price of coking coal and coke supports iron ore prices [2][3]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1. Threaded Steel and Hot - Rolled Coil - **Supply - Demand Situation**: Last week, threaded steel production increased, overall inventory continued to decline, and apparent demand decreased. The apparent demand for the five major steel products decreased overall, inventory increased, and production increased slightly. Steel mill production may continue to decline due to falling margins and the consumption off - season. Winter storage is still some time away [2]. - **Market Sentiment**: Macro - level confidence has been enhanced, with the stock market rising strongly and positive policy expectations boosting confidence. However, the market supervision action has affected market sentiment [2]. - **Operation Suggestion**: Hold long positions and conduct mid - term trading. Avoid chasing up or selling down [2]. - **Data Summary**: The closing price of the threaded steel main contract was 3168 yuan/ton, down 19 yuan or 0.60% from the previous day and up 46 yuan or 1.47% from the previous week. The 247 - steel - mill blast furnace operating rate was 78.32%, down 0.15 percentage points from the previous week. The daily average molten iron output of 247 steel mills was 227.43 million tons, up 0.85 million tons or 0.38% from the previous week [2]. 3.2. Iron Ore - **Supply - Demand Situation**: Last week, the overall production of the five major steel products increased, and the apparent demand decreased. The market is still in the off - season, and molten iron production is likely to decline seasonally. The restocking demand before the Spring Festival will come later this year. On the supply side, global shipments remain high, and the rising port inventory suppresses futures prices. The sharp rebound of coking coal and coke supports iron ore prices [3]. - **Technical Analysis**: The 05 contract is strongly supported by the 10 - day moving average, and a mid - term upward trend is emerging [3]. - **Operation Suggestion**: Hold long positions and conduct mid - term trading [3]. - **Data Summary**: The settlement price of the DCE iron ore main contract was 813 yuan/dry ton, down 15.0 yuan or 1.81% from the previous day and up 23.5 yuan or 2.98% from the previous week. The overseas iron ore shipment volume from Australia was 1698.5 million tons, down 207.0 million tons or 10.86% from the previous week [4]. 3.3. Industry News - As of the week of January 8, threaded steel production increased for the fourth consecutive week, factory and social inventories turned from decreasing to increasing, and apparent demand decreased for the third consecutive week. The social inventory of threaded steel was 290.18 million tons, an increase of 7.52 million tons or 2.66% from the previous week. The apparent demand for threaded steel was 174.96 million tons, a decrease of 25.48 million tons or 12.71% from the previous week [7]. - As of January 8, 2026, the total inventory of national float glass sample enterprises was 55.518 million heavy boxes, a decrease of 1.348 million heavy boxes or 2.37% from the previous week and an increase of 27.04% from the same period last year. The inventory days were 24.1 days, a decrease of 1.5 days from the previous period [7].

投资咨询系列报告 报告导读： 山金期货贵金属策略报告 更新时间：2026年01月08日16时41分 今日贵金属承压回落，沪金主力收跌0.73%，沪银主力收跌5.90%，铂金主力收跌6.72%，钯金主力收涨跌3.57%。①核心逻辑， 短期避险方面，贸易战避险消退，地缘异动风险上升；美国就业走弱通胀温和，降息预期支撑仍存。②避险属性方面，特朗普政府 正在讨论获取格陵兰岛的方案，包括军事选项。美国抓捕马杜罗震惊世界，地缘异动风险上升。③货币属性方面，美国去年12月 "小非农"温和复苏。美国11月职位空缺降至14个月新低，表明劳动力需求减弱。美国11月核心CPI同比上涨2.6%，创下2021年 初以来最慢增速，低于市场预期的3%。美联储12月在重重分歧中下调利率，暗示将暂停行动明年或仅降息一次。鲍威尔指出，美 联储的利率政策已处于良好位置，可以应对未来经济走势。目前市场预期美联储26年1月不降息概率维持在80%附近，下次降息或 到4月。美元指数和美债收益率震荡偏强；④商品属性方面，白银受到供应偏紧支撑。铂金氢能产业铂基催化剂需求预期强劲。钯 金短期需求仍有韧性，长期面临燃油车市场结构性压力。CRB商品指数震荡偏弱，人 ...

Group 1: Report Summary - The report is a daily report of the black sector by Shan Jin Futures, covering steel products such as rebar, hot-rolled coils, and iron ore [1] Group 2: Rebar and Hot-rolled Coil Core Viewpoint - In the consumption off-season, supply and demand are both weak, winter storage is yet to come, macro confidence is strengthening, the stock market is breaking through strongly, and the sharp rise of coking coal and coke boosts confidence, so the upward space of futures prices is greater than the downward space [2] Operation Suggestion - Hold long positions and conduct mid - line trading. For those with no positions, it is not recommended to chase the rise. Enter the market to buy on pullbacks [2] Data Summary - **Price**: The closing price of the rebar main contract is 3,187 yuan/ton, up 2.44% from the previous day and 2.08% from last week; the closing price of the hot - rolled coil main contract is 3,332 yuan/ton, up 2.11% from the previous day and 1.90% from last week [2] - **Production**: The national rebar production of building material steel mills is 188.22 tons, up 2.08% from last week; the hot - rolled coil production is 304.51 tons, up 3.74% from last week [2] - **Inventory**: The social inventory of the five major varieties is 850.78 tons, down 2.50% from last week; the rebar social inventory is 282.66 tons, down 3.92% from last week; the hot - rolled coil social inventory is 288.64 tons, down 2.72% from last week [2] - **Apparent Demand**: The apparent demand of the five major varieties is 841.02 tons, up 0.89% from last week; the rebar apparent demand is 200.44 tons, down 1.11% from last week; the hot - rolled coil apparent demand is 310.77 tons, up 1.21% from last week [2] Group 3: Iron Ore Core Viewpoint - Although the market is in the consumption off - season, iron ore prices are supported by the sharp rebound of coking coal and coke, and the 05 contract is clearly supported by the 10 - day moving average, with a mid - line level upward trend unfolding [4] Operation Suggestion - Hold long positions and conduct mid - line trading [4] Data Summary - **Price**: The settlement price of the DCE iron ore main contract is 828 yuan/dry ton, up 3.37% from the previous day and 4.88% from last week; the settlement price of the SGX iron ore continuous contract is 109.05 US dollars/dry ton, up 2.42% from the previous day and 4.18% from last week [5] - **Supply**: The Australian iron ore shipment is 1,698.5 tons, down 10.86% from last week; the Brazilian iron ore shipment is 698.5 tons, down 14.46% from last week [5] - **Inventory**: The total port inventory is 15,970.89 tons, up 0.71% from last week; the port trade ore inventory is 10,833.52 tons, up 0.48% from last week; the total inventory of imported sinter powder ore of 64 sample steel mills is 1,261.72 tons, up 4.60% from last week [5] Group 4: Industry News - Key coking enterprises agreed to continue to actively limit and reduce production, reduce or stop purchasing high - priced coal, optimize the coal inventory structure, communicate with steel mills to stabilize prices, and stop shipments if steel mills ask for price cuts again [7] - According to data, the national building material production is 445.32 tons, down 4.96 tons from last week; the social inventory is 343.99 tons, down 6.06 tons from last week; the apparent demand is 429.93 tons, down 37.54 tons from last week [7] - The steel inventory of key steel enterprises is 1,414 tons, down 11.7% from the previous ten - day period, up 14.3% from the beginning of the year, down 1.0% from the same ten - day period of last month, up 14.3% from the same ten - day period of last year, and up 14.4% from the same ten - day period of the year before last [7] - The planned rebar production in January is 731.22 tons, an increase of 25.98 tons or 3.68% from the actual production in December [8] - Mongolia has revoked the special mining licenses of 4 companies, which will not affect Mongolia's coal exports to China [8]

Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided in the given content. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The short - term safe - haven situation shows that trade - war related safe - haven demand has subsided, while geopolitical risks have increased. The weakening US employment and moderate inflation still support the expectation of interest rate cuts. - Geopolitical risks have risen with the Trump administration discussing the acquisition of Greenland and the US arresting Maduro. - Although the US economic growth in the third quarter exceeded expectations, consumer confidence dropped to the lowest level since April. The US November core CPI increased by 2.6% year - on - year, the slowest growth since early 2021, lower than the market expectation of 3%. The November employment rebounded more than expected, but the unemployment rate rose to a four - year high. The Fed cut interest rates in December with differences, hinting at a pause and only one possible rate cut next year. The market expects an 80% probability that the Fed will not cut rates in January 2026, and the next possible rate cut may be in April. The US dollar index and US Treasury yields are oscillating weakly. - Silver is supported by tight supply. The expected demand for platinum - based catalysts in the platinum hydrogen energy industry is strong. Palladium has short - term demand resilience but faces long - term structural pressure in the fuel - vehicle market. The CRB commodity index is oscillating weakly, and the appreciation of the RMB is negative for domestic prices. - It is expected that precious metals will be oscillating strongly in the short term, oscillating at a high level in the medium term, and rising step - by - step in the long term. [1] Summary by Relevant Catalogs 1. Gold - Strategy: Conservative investors should wait and see, while aggressive investors can buy low and sell high. Good position management and strict stop - loss and take - profit are recommended. - Price data: Comex gold active contract closed at $4505.70 per ounce, up 1.03% from the previous day and 3.57% from last week; London gold closed at $4490.35 per ounce, up 0.76% from the previous day and 3.53% from last week; Shanghai gold futures main contract closed at 998.90 yuan per gram, down 0.60% from the previous day and 0.82% from last week; Gold T + D closed at 1001.92 yuan per gram, unchanged from the previous day and down 0.30% from last week. - Other data: The long - short positions of the top 10 futures company members in SHFE's gold futures are presented in detail, including net long and net short positions and their changes. [2][3] 2. Silver - Strategy: Conservative investors should wait and see, while aggressive investors can buy on dips. Good position management and strict stop - loss and take - profit are recommended. - Price data: Comex silver active contract closed at $81.22 per ounce, up 6.16% from the previous day and 13.37% from last week; London silver closed at $78.48 per ounce, up 4.54% from the previous day and 5.15% from last week; Shanghai silver futures main contract closed at 19290 yuan per kilogram, down 0.83% from the previous day and up 5.98% from last week; Silver T + D closed at 19495 yuan per kilogram, unchanged from the previous day and up 3.71% from last week. - Other data: The long - short positions of the top 10 futures company members in SHFE's silver futures are shown, including net long and net short positions and their changes. [4][5] 3. Platinum - Strategy: Conservative investors should wait and see, while aggressive investors can buy on dips. Good position management and strict stop - loss and take - profit are recommended. - Price data: NYMEX platinum active contract closed at $2272.90 per ounce, down 2.03% from the previous day and up 17.68% from last week; London platinum closed at $2208 per ounce, unchanged from the previous day and up 15.84% from last week; Platinum futures main contract in GZFE closed at 686.95 yuan per gram, up 4.46% from the previous day and 26.60% from last week; Platinum in SGE closed at 591.25 yuan per gram, down 2.59% from the previous day and 15.56% from last week. - Other data: The long - short positions of the top 10 futures company members in GZFE's platinum futures are provided, including net long and net short positions and their changes. [6][7][9] 4. Palladium - Strategy: Conservative investors should wait and see, while aggressive investors can buy on dips. Good position management and strict stop - loss and take - profit are recommended. - Price data: NYMEX palladium active contract closed at $1821 per ounce, down 7.28% from the previous day and up 5.57% from last week; London palladium closed at $1837 per ounce, up 10.56% from the previous day and 11.81% from last week; Palladium futures main contract in GZFE closed at 529.05 yuan per gram, down 8.54% from the previous day and up 11.01% from last week. [10] 5. Key Data on Precious Metals Fundamentals - Fed - related data: The upper limit of the federal funds target rate is 3.75%, the discount rate is 3.75%, the reserve balance interest rate (IORB) is 3.65%, and the Fed's total assets are $66908.33 billion. - Key indicators: The 10 - year US Treasury real yield is 2.54%, the US dollar index is 98.60, and various bond spreads and interest rate differentials are presented. - US inflation data: The CPI year - on - year is 2.70%, the core CPI year - on - year is 2.60%, etc. - US economic growth data: The GDP annualized year - on - year growth is 2.30%, and the annualized quarter - on - quarter growth is 4.30%. - Other data: Unemployment rate, employment data, real estate market data, consumption data, industrial data, economic survey data, central bank gold reserves, IMF foreign exchange reserve ratios, geopolitical risk index, VIX index, CRB commodity index, and offshore RMB exchange rate are all provided. Also, the Fed's latest interest rate expectations are presented. [11][13][14]

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints of the Report - For the rebar and hot-rolled coil sector, in the off-season of consumption, supply and demand are both weak, and winter storage is yet to come. With enhanced macro confidence and a strong stock market boosting market sentiment, futures prices are expected to maintain a volatile trend. It is recommended to hold long positions for medium-term trading, and those with empty positions should avoid chasing up or selling down, instead adopting a volatile trading approach [3]. - For the iron ore sector, although the overall output of the five major steel products increased last week and apparent demand rebounded month-on-month, the market is still in the off-season, and molten iron output is likely to decline seasonally. The supply is at a high level, and rising port inventories suppress futures prices. However, technically, the 05 contract is clearly supported by the 10-day moving average, and a medium-term upward trend is unfolding. It is recommended to hold long positions for medium-term trading [5]. Summary by Related Catalogs Rebar and Hot-Rolled Coil - **Supply and Demand**: Last week, rebar and hot-rolled coil production increased, and the total output of the five major varieties rose month-on-month. Overall inventory continued to decline. Rebar's apparent demand decreased, while hot-rolled coil's continued to rise. Due to a significant drop in steel mill margins and the off-season, steel production may continue to decline. The recent sharp rebound in coking coal and coke futures prices has raised cost support for the market [3]. - **Price and Spread**: Rebar and hot-rolled coil futures and spot prices showed mixed trends. The basis and spreads of rebar and hot-rolled coil futures also changed. For example, the rebar futures 10 - 1 spread was 74 yuan/ton, down 16 yuan from the previous value [3]. - **Production and Operation**: The blast furnace operating rate of 247 steel mills was 78.32%, and the average daily molten iron output was 227.43 million tons. The proportion of profitable steel mills was 38.1%. The production of rebar and hot-rolled coils increased, while the capacity utilization and operating rate of independent electric arc furnace steel mills decreased [3]. - **Inventory**: The social inventory of the five major varieties decreased by 2.50% to 850.78 million tons, and the steel mill inventory decreased by 1.05% to 381.37 million tons. Rebar and hot-rolled coil social inventories decreased, while hot-rolled coil steel mill inventory increased [3]. - **Apparent Demand**: The apparent demand of the five major varieties increased by 0.89% to 841.02 million tons. Rebar's apparent demand decreased, while hot-rolled coil's increased [3]. Iron Ore - **Demand**: The overall output of the five major steel products increased last week, and apparent demand rebounded month-on-month. However, in the off-season, molten iron output is likely to decline seasonally. Steel mills' production cuts suppress raw material prices, and the pre-holiday restocking demand will come later this year [5]. - **Supply**: Global shipments remain at a high level, and the continuous increase in port inventories suppresses futures prices [5]. - **Price and Spread**: Iron ore spot and futures prices mostly increased. The basis and spreads of iron ore futures also changed. For example, the DCE iron ore futures 9 - 1 spread was -15 yuan/dry ton, up 25.5 yuan from the previous value [6]. - **Shipping and Inventory**: Overseas iron ore shipments from Australia and Brazil decreased. The arrival volume at the six northern ports increased by 13.70% to 1512.9 million tons, and the port inventory increased by 0.71% to 15970.89 million tons [6].

投资咨询系列报告 山金期货贵金属策略报告 更新时间：2026年01月06日16时48分 报告导读： 今日贵金属震荡上行，沪金主力收涨1.27%，沪银主力收涨7.06%，铂金主力收涨6.02%，钯金主力收涨涨5.16%。①核心逻辑， 短期避险方面，贸易战避险消退，地缘异动风险上升；美国就业走弱通胀温和，降息预期支撑仍存。②避险属性方面，美国抓捕马 杜罗震惊世界，地缘异动风险上升。③货币属性方面，尽管美国第三季度经济增长超过预期，但消费者信心降至4月以来的最低水 平。美国11月核心CPI同比上涨2.6%，创下2021年初以来最慢增速，低于市场预期的3%。美国11月就业反弹超预期，失业率升至 四年高位。美联储12月在重重分歧中下调利率，暗示将暂停行动明年或仅降息一次。鲍威尔指出，美联储的利率政策已处于良好 位置，可以应对未来经济走势，但他拒绝就近期是否会再次降息提供指引。目前市场预期美联储26年1月不降息概率维持在80%附 近，下次降息或到4月。美元指数和美债收益率震荡偏弱；④商品属性方面，白银受到供应偏紧支撑。铂金氢能产业铂基催化剂需 求预期强劲。钯金短期需求仍有韧性，长期面临燃油车市场结构性压力。CRB商品指数 ...