1. Report Industry Investment Rating There is no information about the report industry investment rating in the provided content. 2. Core Views of the Report - Today, precious metals continued their upward trend, with the main Shanghai gold contract closing up 1.84% and the main Shanghai silver contract closing up 2.93% [1]. - The short - term core logic includes increased short - term hedging demand due to the escalation of trade wars and the US government shutdown, and the increasing risk of stagflation in the US economy with weak employment and moderate inflation, leading to the realization of the Fed's interest - rate cut expectations [1]. - The escalation of Trump's trade war and the US government shutdown have increased market uncertainty, enhancing the hedging attribute of precious metals [1]. - Fed Chairman Powell hinted that officials might stop shrinking the balance sheet in the coming months, and Fed Governor Waller warned of a possible negative turn in US employment growth. The Fed's Beige Book showed little change in US economic activity recently but signs of cooling consumption. The Fed cut interest rates by 25 basis points in September and hinted at further cuts. The market expects a 25 - basis - point cut in October with a probability of around 90% and about 2 more cuts this year [1]. - The 1 - month implied lease rate of London silver has soared, indicating a tight silver spot market. The CRB commodity index's rebound is under pressure, and the appreciation of the RMB is negative for domestic prices [1]. - Precious metals are expected to be volatile and bullish in the short term and rise step - by - step in the long term [1]. - Due to the US government shutdown, the release times of retail sales, PPI and other data are postponed [1]. - Gold price trends are the anchor for silver price trends. In terms of capital, CFTC silver net long positions and iShare silver ETF have slightly increased positions. In terms of inventory, the recent visible silver inventory has slightly decreased [4]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Gold - **Strategy**: Conservative investors should wait and see, while aggressive investors can buy low and sell high. It is recommended to manage positions well and set strict stop - loss and take - profit levels [2]. - **Data Summary**: - **International Prices**: Comex gold's main contract closed at $4224.90 per ounce, up 1.57% from the previous day and 4.05% from the previous week; London gold closed at $4204.60 per ounce, up 1.90% from the previous day and 4.07% from the previous week [2]. - **Domestic Prices**: The main Shanghai gold contract closed at 999.80 yuan per gram, up 3.45% from the previous day and 10.90% from the previous week; gold T + D closed at 995.90 yuan per gram, up 2.96% from the previous day and 10.93% from the previous week [2]. - **Basis, Spreads, and Ratios**: The difference between the main Shanghai gold contract and London gold was 27.72 yuan per gram, up 97% from the previous day and - 183% from the previous week; the main Shanghai gold contract basis was - 3.90 yuan per gram; the gold - to - silver ratio (London gold/London silver) was 79.30, down 0.25% from the previous day and 2.43% from the previous week; the gold - to - copper ratio (Comex gold/Comex copper) was 8.45, up 4.25% from the previous day and 5.98% from the previous week; the gold - to - oil ratio (Comex gold/WTI crude oil) was 72.11, up 3.25% from the previous day and 10.17% from the previous week [2]. - **Positions**: Comex gold positions were 528,789 lots (100 ounces per lot); the main Shanghai gold contract positions were 222,192 lots (kilograms per lot), down 1.32% from the previous day and 6.85% from the previous week; gold TD positions were 254,996 lots (kilograms per lot), up 2.20% from the previous day and 11.18% from the previous week [2]. - **Inventory**: LBMA gold inventory was 8,598 tons; Comex gold inventory was 1,152 tons, down 1.08% from the previous week; Shanghai gold (SHFE) inventory was 18 tons, up 1.57% from the previous day and 1.32% from the previous week [2]. - **CFTC Managed Fund Net Positions**: Asset management institutions' weekly positions were 158,616 lots, down 1,867 lots from the previous week [2]. - **Gold ETF**: SPDR gold ETF holdings were 952.53 tons, down 0.33% from the previous week [2]. - **Futures Warehouse Receipts**: The number of registered Shanghai gold warehouse receipts was 18 tons, up 0.38% from the previous week [2]. 3.2 Silver - **Strategy**: Conservative investors should wait and see, while aggressive investors can buy low and sell high. It is recommended to manage positions well and set strict stop - loss and take - profit levels [5]. - **Data Summary**: - **International Prices**: Comex silver's main contract closed at $53.43 per ounce, up 1.72% from the previous day and 12.12% from the previous week; London silver closed at $53.02 per ounce, up 0.83% from the previous day and 6.67% from the previous week [5]. - **Domestic Prices**: The main Shanghai silver contract closed at 12,249 yuan per kilogram, up 1.93% from the previous day and 10.53% from the previous week; silver T + D closed at 12,228 yuan per kilogram, up 2.06% from the previous day and 10.57% from the previous week [5]. - **Basis and Spreads**: The difference between the main Shanghai silver contract and London silver was 98.89 yuan per gram, down 395.86% from the previous day and 131.49% from the previous week; the main Shanghai silver contract basis was - 21 yuan per kilogram [5]. - **Positions**: Comex silver positions were 165,805 lots (5,000 ounces per lot); the main Shanghai silver contract positions were 7,067,430 lots (kilograms per lot), up 0.60% from the previous day and 2.40% from the previous week; silver TD positions were 3,623,146 lots (kilograms per lot), down 1.80% from the previous day and up 14.78% from the previous week [5]. - **Inventory**: LBMA silver inventory was 24,581 tons, down 0.26% from the previous week; Comex silver inventory was 15,928 tons, down 1.97% from the previous week; Shanghai silver (SHFE) inventory was 982 tons, down 17.24% from the previous week; silver (SGE) inventory was 1,108 tons; the total visible inventory was 42,538 tons, down 0.58% from the previous day and 1.32% from the previous week [5]. - **CFTC Managed Fund Net Positions**: Asset management institutions' weekly positions were 40,065 lots, up 1,937 lots from the previous week [5]. - **Silver ETF**: iShare silver ETF holdings were 15,422.61 tons, down 0.19% from the previous week [5]. - **Futures Warehouse Receipts**: The number of registered Shanghai silver warehouse receipts was 1,169,061 kilograms, down 1.95% from the previous week [5]. 3.3 Fundamental Key Data - **Fed - related Data**: The upper limit of the federal funds target rate was 4.25%, the discount rate was 4.25%, the reserve balance interest rate (IORB) was 4.15%, all down 0.25 percentage points from the previous value; the Fed's total assets were $6,641.668 billion, up $4.268 billion from the previous week [7]. - **US Economic Indicators**: M2 year - on - year growth was 4.77%, down 0.06 percentage points; the 10 - year US Treasury real yield was 2.29%, down 1.29% from the previous day and the previous week; the US dollar index was 98.34, down 0.35% from the previous day and 0.50% from the previous week; various interest rate spreads and inflation - related indicators showed different changes [7][8]. - **US Economic Growth and Labor Market**: GDP annualized year - on - year growth was 2.00%, down 0.30 percentage points; GDP annualized quarter - on - quarter growth was 3.80%, up 4.40 percentage points; the unemployment rate was 4.30%, up 0.10 percentage points; non - farm payrolls monthly change was 2.20 million, down 0.57 million; labor participation rate was 62.40%, down 0.30 percentage points; average hourly wage growth was 3.70%, down 0.20 percentage points; other labor - market - related data also had corresponding changes [7]. - **US Real Estate and Consumption**: The NAHB housing market index was 37.00, up 15.63% from the previous week; existing home sales were 4 million units, down 0.25% from the previous week; new home sales were 660,000 units, up 15.15% from the previous week; retail sales year - on - year growth was 3.76%, down 0.26 percentage points; personal consumption expenditure year - on - year growth was 5.55%, up 0.37 percentage points; other related data also showed different trends [7][8]. - **US Industrial and Trade**: Industrial production index year - on - year growth was 0.87%, down 0.39 percentage points; durable goods new orders were $76.706 billion, up $4.70 billion; exports year - on - year growth was - 27.03%, up 6.09 percentage points; imports year - on - year growth was - 16.11%, down 0.07 percentage points; the trade balance was - $78.3 billion [7][8]. - **Central Bank Gold Reserves and Other Data**: China's gold reserves were 2,303.52 tons, up 0.14% from the previous week; the US gold reserves were 8,133.46 tons; global gold reserves were 36,268.07 tons; the US dollar's share in IMF foreign exchange reserves was 57.80%, up 0.88%; the geopolitical risk index was 259.24, up 57.54% from the previous week; the VIX index was 28.34, up 30.84% from the previous week; the CRB commodity index was 293.61, down 1.91% from the previous week; the offshore RMB exchange rate was 7.1277, down 0.05% from the previous week [8]. 3.4 Fed's Latest Interest Rate Expectations The report provides the Fed's latest interest - rate expectations based on the CME FedWatch tool, showing the probabilities of different interest - rate ranges at various future meeting dates from 2025/10/29 to 2027/9/15 [10].

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints of the Report - Today, precious metals continued their upward trend, with the main Shanghai gold contract closing up 1.84% and the main Shanghai silver contract closing up 2.93%. The short - term core logic includes increased short - term hedging demand due to trade wars and the US government shutdown, rising stagflation risks in the US economy, weakening employment, and moderate inflation, leading to the beginning of the realization of the Fed's interest - rate cut expectations. It is expected that precious metals will be volatile and bullish in the short term and rise step - by - step in the long term [1]. - Gold price trends serve as an anchor for silver prices. In terms of capital, CFTC silver net long positions and iShare silver ETFs have slightly increased their positions. In terms of inventory, the recent visible inventory of silver has slightly decreased [4]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Gold - **Price and Market Performance**: International gold prices such as Comex gold and London gold, and domestic gold prices like Shanghai gold and gold T + D all showed increases. For example, the Comex gold主力合约收盘价 increased by 1.57% compared to the previous day and 4.05% compared to the previous week [2]. - **Core Logic**: In the short - term, factors such as trade wars, the US government shutdown, stagflation risks in the US economy, and Fed's interest - rate cut expectations have affected the gold market. The Fed's monetary policy signals, employment data, and market expectations of interest - rate cuts also play important roles [1]. - **Strategy**: Conservative investors are advised to wait and see, while aggressive investors can buy low and sell high. Good position management and strict stop - loss and take - profit are recommended [2]. Silver - **Price and Market Performance**: International silver prices (Comex silver and London silver) and domestic silver prices (Shanghai silver and silver T + D) all rose. For instance, the Comex silver主力合约收盘价 increased by 4.33% compared to the previous day and 8.43% compared to the previous week [5]. - **Core Logic**: Gold price trends are the anchor for silver prices. There are slight increases in capital positions and a slight decrease in visible inventory [4]. - **Strategy**: Similar to gold, conservative investors should wait and see, and aggressive investors can adopt a high - selling and low - buying strategy with proper position management and strict stop - loss and take - profit [5]. Fundamental Key Data - **Fed - Related Data**: The upper limit of the federal funds target rate, the discount rate, and the reserve balance interest rate all decreased by 0.25%. The Fed's total assets were 66416.68 billion US dollars, with a slight increase of 0.00% [8]. - **Macroeconomic Indicators**: The ten - year US Treasury real yield, the US dollar index, and various interest rate spreads showed different degrees of change. Economic indicators such as CPI, PCE, GDP, and employment also had corresponding fluctuations [8][9]. - **Other Indicators**: Geopolitical risk index, VIX index, CRB commodity index, and offshore RMB exchange rate also had their respective changes [9]. Fed's Latest Interest - Rate Expectations The probabilities of different interest - rate ranges at each Fed meeting from October 2025 to September 2027 are provided, showing market expectations for the Fed's future interest - rate decisions [11].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The precious metals returned to an upward trend. The main contract of Shanghai Gold closed up 2.09%, and the main contract of Shanghai Silver closed up 2.30%. The short - term safe - haven demand increased due to the trade war and the US government shutdown, and the risk of stagflation in the US economy rose with weak employment and moderate inflation, leading to the realization of the Fed's interest - rate cut expectation. The precious metals are expected to fluctuate upwards in the short term and rise step - by - step in the long term [2]. - The price trend of gold is the anchor for the price of silver. In terms of capital, the net long position of CFTC silver and the iShare Silver ETF slightly increased. In terms of inventory, the recent explicit inventory of silver slightly decreased [5]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Gold - **Core Logic**: Short - term safe - haven demand increased due to the trade war and the US government shutdown. The risk of stagflation in the US economy increased with weak employment and moderate inflation, and the Fed's interest - rate cut expectation began to be realized. Trump's trade war escalation, the US government shutdown, and the French Prime Minister's resignation increased market uncertainty. The Fed Chairman hinted at a possible halt to balance - sheet contraction, and Fed officials warned of negative employment growth. The market expected a 90% probability of a 25 - basis - point rate cut in October and about 2 more rate cuts this year. The London silver 1 - month implied lease rate soared, and the silver spot was in short supply. The CRB commodity index rebounded under pressure, and the RMB appreciation was negative for domestic prices [2]. - **Strategy**: Conservative investors should wait and see, while aggressive investors can buy on dips. It is recommended to manage positions well and set strict stop - loss and take - profit levels [2][3]. - **Data Summary**: International gold prices (Comex gold and London gold) increased, with daily increases of 0.72% - 0.74% and weekly increases of 3.70% - 3.79%. Domestic gold prices (Shanghai Gold main contract and Gold T + D) also rose significantly, with daily increases of 1.97% - 2.27% and weekly increases of 9.83% - 10.00%. Positions and inventories showed different trends, with some increasing and some decreasing [3]. Silver - **Core Logic**: The price of silver is anchored by the price of gold. The net long position of CFTC silver and the iShare Silver ETF slightly increased, and the recent explicit inventory of silver slightly decreased [5]. - **Strategy**: Conservative investors should wait and see, while aggressive investors can buy on dips. It is recommended to manage positions well and set strict stop - loss and take - profit levels [6]. - **Data Summary**: International silver prices (Comex silver and London silver) increased, with daily increases of 0.95% - 6.86% and weekly increases of 4.91% - 5.51%. Domestic silver prices (Shanghai Silver main contract and Silver T + D) also rose, with daily increases of 3.74% - 3.75% and weekly increases of 9.60% - 10.17%. Positions generally increased, and inventories decreased [6]. Fundamental Key Data - **Fed - related Data**: The federal funds target rate upper limit, discount rate, and reserve balance interest rate decreased by 0.25%. The Fed's total assets increased by 42.68 billion US dollars (0.00%). M2 increased by 0.23% year - on - year. The 10 - year US Treasury real yield decreased by 2.52%. The US dollar index decreased by 0.21% daily and increased by 0.19% weekly [8]. - **Other Key Indicators**: The US Treasury yield spreads, US - EU and US - China yield spreads, and inflation - related indicators showed different trends. US economic growth, labor market, real estate market, consumption, industry, trade, and other aspects also had various changes [10]. - **Other Data**: Central bank gold reserves in some countries changed slightly. The proportion of gold in foreign exchange reserves increased in some cases. The geopolitical risk index increased, the VIX index decreased, the CRB commodity index increased, and the offshore RMB slightly decreased [12].

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No investment rating information is provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints - The oil price is gradually entering a pressured phase from a supply - demand perspective. Short - term Middle East tensions are easing, but there are still potential shocks in Russia - Ukraine, Iran, and Venezuela. OPEC+ plans to increase production, and oil demand may enter a seasonal weakening stage [2]. - The market expects the Fed to cut interest rates by 25BP in October and at least 25BP in December. The Fed's balance - sheet reduction may end in the next few months. There are uncertainties in the US economy due to government shutdown and potential large - scale layoffs [2]. - From a technical analysis, the US oil has been in a slow - slope downward oscillation since October 2023. The trading strategy is to sell on rallies considering supply - demand, while also being alert to potential geopolitical conflicts [2]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1. Market Data - **Crude Oil Futures**: On October 14, Sc was at 449.60 yuan/barrel, down 1.19% from the previous day and 8.73% from the previous week. WTI was at 58.59 dollars/barrel, down 1.63% and 7.26% respectively. Brent was at 62.28 dollars/barrel, down 1.75% and 6.72% respectively [2]. - **Internal - External Spreads**: Sc - WTI was at 4.72 dollars/barrel, up 4.36% from the previous day and down 22.87% from the previous week. Sc - Brent was at 1.03 dollars/barrel, up 48.97% and down 59.37% respectively [2]. - **Sc Month - Spreads**: Sc_C1 - C2 was at - 1.00 yuan/barrel, up 23.08% from the previous day and down 78.26% from the previous week. Sc_C1 - C6 was at - 2.40 yuan/barrel, down 9.09% and 45.45% respectively [2]. - **Crude Oil Spot**: OPEC's basket of crude oil was at 64.30 dollars/barrel, down 1.85% from the previous day and 2.34% from the previous week. Brent DTD was at 71.18 dollars/barrel, up 2.39% and down 0.14% respectively [2]. - **Product Spreads**: Diesel (East China)/Sc was at 14.530087, up 1.16% from the previous day and 8.04% from the previous week. Gasoline (East China)/Sc was at 16.759139, up 1.06% and 7.91% respectively [2]. - **Sc Warehouse Receipts**: The total warehouse receipts were 540.10 million barrels, unchanged from the previous day and week [2]. - **EIA US Data**: Strategic petroleum reserves were 406.99 million barrels, up 0.07% from the previous week. Commercial crude oil was 420.26 million barrels, up 0.89% [2]. - **CFTC Positions**: Non - commercial net positions were 10.30 million contracts, up 4.30% from the previous week. Commercial net positions were - 11.86 million contracts, up 3.36% [2]. 3.2. Industry News - **Geopolitical News**: The negotiation of the second - stage cease - fire agreement in Gaza faces difficulties as Hamas and Israel have different stances. The Russia - Ukraine conflict continues, and the US attitude towards selling "Tomahawk" missiles to Ukraine is worth noting [2][3]. - **Supply - Demand News**: Western Oil executives expect US oil supply to peak between 2027 - 2030. The supply - surplus in the oil market is becoming more obvious, and the IEA predicts a record daily surplus of 4 million barrels in 2026 [2][4]. - **Interest Rate News**: The market expects the Fed to cut interest rates by 25BP in October and at least 25BP in December. Fed officials, including Powell, Collins, etc., have made statements related to interest - rate cuts and balance - sheet reduction [2][5][6][7][8]. 3.3. Operation Suggestions - Maintain a short - selling mindset but be alert to potential geopolitical conflicts. Consider using wide - straddle positions, and for those with market - trend expectations, use single - side medium - out - of - the - money option strategies [2].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided 2. Core Views of the Report - The current pressure of simultaneous weakening of supply and demand persists, but the futures price is still expected to bottom out and rebound in the medium term [1] - In the third quarter, rebar and hot - rolled coils first rose and then fell, basically erasing the gains from the "anti - involution" speculation. In the fourth quarter, supply is likely to decline, demand will seasonally weaken, and inventory is expected to continue to fall, but at a relatively slow pace [8] - From October to November, the market is dominated by weak reality, and prices tend to fluctuate and decline. Starting from December, the market is dominated by strong expectations, and the futures price is expected to stabilize and rebound [8] - For the unilateral strategy, it is recommended to short on rallies in the short - term and switch to going long on dips in the medium - term if a clear bottom pattern appears. For arbitrage, consider shorting the spread between hot - rolled coils and rebar for the 01 contract on rallies [8] 3. Summary According to the Directory 3.1 Main Views - **Market Trend in Q3**: Rebar and hot - rolled coils first rose and then fell. In early July, due to the "anti - involution" policy, industrial products rose significantly, but later, affected by high prices and demand concerns, prices declined from August to September [8][9] - **Supply**: Marginal profit is close to the break - even point, so steel mills have strong motivation to reduce production. In November, environmental protection restrictions may increase, and the "anti - involution" policy may be phased out, leading to a decline in supply. However, a decrease in production may cause a decline in iron ore and coke prices, resulting in a "negative feedback" cycle [8] - **Demand**: Downstream demand will seasonally weaken in the fourth quarter, reaching a low point during the Spring Festival next year. Before December, the market anticipates the weak demand in the off - season, pressuring the futures price. After December, the market is optimistic about the peak - season demand next year, boosting the futures price [8] - **Inventory**: Although the current inventory is relatively high, it is likely to continue to decline in the fourth quarter, but at a slow pace. If inventory rises, the price of rebar and hot - rolled coils will face pressure, forcing steel mills to cut production. The total inventory will seasonally rise before the Spring Festival, but the market will focus on the rising speed [8] - **Market Judgment**: From October to November, the market is affected by weak reality, and prices tend to fall. Starting from December, the market is driven by strong expectations, and the futures price is expected to rebound. The switch in rhythm depends on technical patterns, policies, and supply - demand conditions [8] - **Unilateral Strategy**: Short - term trading suggests shorting on rallies. In the medium - term, if a clear bottom pattern appears, switch to going long on dips and hold the position until after the Spring Festival next year [8] - **Arbitrage Strategy**: Consider shorting the spread between hot - rolled coils and rebar for the 01 contract on rallies [8] 3.2 Review of the Rebar and Hot - Rolled Coils Spot and Futures Market in Q3 - **Price Trend**: Rebar and hot - rolled coils first rose and then fell, returning to the level at the beginning of July, erasing the "anti - involution" gains. The basis of rebar and hot - rolled coils both increased, with the increase in rebar's basis being more significant [8][9][14] - **Spread Analysis**: The spread between different contracts, regions, and varieties showed differentiation. The spread between the 01 and 05 contracts of rebar decreased, while the spread between the 10 and 01 contracts of hot - rolled coils increased. The spread of the 10 - contract of the coil - to - rebar spread reached a record high, while the 01 and 05 contracts were within a reasonable range [22][25][28] - **Profit Analysis**: The profit of upstream and downstream processing slightly improved, which may be related to the "anti - involution" policy in the third quarter. The ratio of rebar to iron ore is at a low level and may rise, while the ratio of rebar to coke has declined and may continue to fall [30][33] 3.3 Supply - Demand Analysis of Steel in Q4 - **Supply**: Steel production has been gradually decreasing, mainly due to the off - season consumption, the National Day holiday, and the "anti - involution" policy. The production of independent electric - arc furnace steel mills has decreased. The production of iron water remains high, but steel mills are likely to cut production in the future due to falling profits [36][38][47] - **Demand**: The apparent demand for rebar and hot - rolled coils during the National Day holiday reached a record low in recent years. The recovery of steel demand after the holiday is not satisfactory. The real estate market is still under pressure, which drags down the demand for steel. However, steel exports increased in September, mainly driven by the high - speed growth of billet exports [54][55][58] - **Inventory**: The inventory of major steel products has increased rapidly, especially for hot - rolled coils and cold - rolled coils, which reached record highs in the same period, indicating that the supply of downstream industrial materials exceeds demand. In the fourth quarter, steel mills still face great pressure to reduce inventory, but inventory is likely to decline seasonally [68][73][76] 3.4 Market Outlook and Investment Opportunity Analysis - **Market Outlook**: The Langer Iron and Steel PMI index indicates pressure in the fourth quarter. Seasonal patterns suggest that the market is likely to be weak first and then strong in the fourth quarter. In the short - term, the downward trend since August is expected to continue, but in the medium - term, the futures price may bottom out and rebound [79][83][87] - **Investment Strategy**: For short - term trading, short on rallies. For medium - term trading, go long on dips if a clear bottom pattern appears. For arbitrage, short the spread between hot - rolled coils and rebar for the 01 contract on rallies [8][87]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Views of the Report - Today, precious metals rose and then fell. The main contract of Shanghai Gold closed up 2.70%, and the main contract of Shanghai Silver closed up 2.64% [2]. - In the short - term, due to the trade war and the US government shutdown, the risk aversion sentiment has escalated. The risk of stagflation in the US economy has increased, with weak employment and moderate inflation, and the market's expectation of the Fed's interest rate cut has begun to materialize [2]. - Trump's trade war escalation and the US government shutdown have increased market uncertainty [2]. - The labor market weakness has become the Fed's major concern in formulating policies. The Fed cut interest rates by 25 basis points in September and hinted at further cuts. The ADP employment in September decreased by 32,000, far lower than the market - expected increase of 51,000. The US PCE inflation data met expectations, strengthening the bet that the Fed may continue to cut interest rates later this year. Currently, the market expects the probability of a 25 - basis - point interest rate cut by the Fed in October to remain around 90%, and the expected number of interest rate cuts within the year is still about 2 [2]. - The implied lease rate of London silver has soared, indicating a tight supply of silver spot. The rebound of the CRB commodity index is under pressure, and the appreciation of the RMB is negative for domestic prices [2]. - It is expected that precious metals will fluctuate at a high level in the short - term and rise step - by - step in the medium - and long - term [2]. - The price trend of gold is the anchor for the price of silver. In terms of capital, the net long position of CFTC silver and the iShare silver ETF have slightly increased positions. In terms of inventory, the recent explicit inventory of silver has slightly decreased [5]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Gold - **Strategy**: Conservative investors should wait and see, while aggressive investors can sell high and buy low. It is recommended to manage positions well and strictly set stop - loss and take - profit levels [3]. - **Relevant Data**: - International prices: Comex gold main contract closed at $4130.00 per ounce, up $94.50 (2.34%) from the previous day and up $145.60 (3.65%) from last week; London gold closed at $4095.95 per ounce, up $121.45 (3.06%) from the previous day and up $146.50 (3.71%) from last week [3]. - Domestic prices: The main contract of Shanghai Gold closed at 938.98 yuan per gram, up 11.42 yuan (1.23%) from the previous day and up 72.46 yuan (8.36%) from last week; Gold T + D closed at 939.95 yuan per gram, up 13.47 yuan (1.45%) from the previous day and up 77.45 yuan (8.98%) from last week [3]. - Other data: The net long position of CFTC management funds decreased by 1867 hands; the SPDR gold ETF decreased by 3.15 tons (- 0.33%) [3]. Silver - **Strategy**: Conservative investors should wait and see, while aggressive investors can buy on dips. It is recommended to manage positions well and strictly set stop - loss and take - profit levels [6]. - **Relevant Data**: - International prices: Comex silver main contract closed at $50.78 per ounce, up $3.26 (6.86%) from the previous day and up $2.38 (4.91%) from last week; London silver closed at $51.24 per ounce, up $0.48 (0.95%) from the previous day and up $2.68 (5.51%) from last week [6]. - Domestic prices: The main contract of Shanghai Silver closed at 11,533 yuan per kilogram, up 2 yuan (0.02%) from the previous day and up 594 yuan (5.43%) from last week; Silver T + D closed at 11,530 yuan per kilogram, up 77 yuan (0.67%) from the previous day and up 652 yuan (5.99%) from last week [6]. - Other data: The net long position of CFTC management funds increased by 1937 hands; the iShare silver ETF increased by 358.49 tons (2.33%) [6]. Fundamental Key Data - Federal funds target rate upper limit, discount rate, and reserve balance interest rate all decreased by 0.25% [8]. - The Fed's total assets were $6641.668 billion, up $4.268 billion (0.00%) [8]. - M2 increased by 0.23% year - on - year [8]. - The 10 - year US Treasury real yield decreased by 0.07 ( - 2.93%) [8]. - The US dollar index was 99.24, up 0.41 (0.41%) from the previous day and up 0.65 (0.66%) from last week [8]. - The US Treasury yield spread (3 - month to 10 - year) was 0.50, up 0.07 (16.28%) from the previous day and up 0.06 (12.77%) from last week [8]. Other Key Indicators - In terms of currency attributes, various inflation, economic growth, labor market, real estate market, consumption, industrial, and trade indicators have different degrees of change [10]. - In terms of risk - aversion attributes, the geopolitical risk index was 271.85, and the VIX index was 22.07, up 3.04 (15.97%) from the previous day and up 4.83 (28.02%) from last week [12]. - In terms of commodity attributes, the CRB commodity index was 295.54, up 2.78 (0.95%) from the previous day and down 5.53 ( - 1.84%) from last week; the offshore RMB exchange rate was 7.1348, down 0.0074 ( - 0.10%) [12]. - Fed's latest interest rate expectations show different probabilities of interest rate ranges in different meeting dates from 2025 to 2027 [13].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - Gold prices are expected to move up in the short - term with a step - up trend in the long - term. Silver prices are anchored to gold price trends. The short - term rise in gold is driven by increased short - term risk aversion, enhanced risk - hedging attributes, and the expectation of Fed rate cuts. The silver market shows slight increases in net long positions and ETF holdings, along with a slight decrease in visible inventories [2][6]. 3. Summary by Directory Gold - **Market Performance**: Today, precious metals fluctuated upwards. The main contract of Shanghai Gold closed up 1.99%, and the main contract of Shanghai Silver closed up 2.84% [2]. - **Core Logic**: In the short - term, risk aversion has increased due to the trade war and the US government shutdown. The risk of US economic stagflation has risen, with weak employment and moderate inflation, and the expectation of Fed rate cuts is being realized. Trump's trade war escalation, the US government shutdown, and the French Prime Minister's resignation have increased market uncertainty. Fed officials' warnings about the labor market and support for rate cuts, along with disappointing employment data and in - line inflation data, have strengthened the bet on further rate cuts. The market expects a 90% probability of a 25 - basis - point rate cut in October and about 2 rate cuts this year. The CRB commodity index's rebound is under pressure, and the RMB appreciation is negative for domestic prices [2]. - **Strategy**: Conservative investors should wait and see, while aggressive investors can sell high and buy low. It is recommended to manage positions well and set strict stop - loss and take - profit levels [3]. - **Data Summary**: There are detailed data on international and domestic gold prices, basis, spreads, ratios, open interest, inventories, CFTC managed fund net positions, and ETF holdings, as well as the net position rankings of the top 10 futures companies in the Shanghai Gold Exchange [3][4]. Silver - **Price Anchor**: Gold price trends are the anchor for silver prices [6]. - **Fundamentals**: CFTC silver net long positions and iShare silver ETF have slightly increased their positions, and the visible inventory of silver has slightly decreased recently [6]. - **Strategy**: Conservative investors should wait and see, while aggressive investors can buy on dips. It is recommended to manage positions well and set strict stop - loss and take - profit levels [7]. - **Data Summary**: There are detailed data on international and domestic silver prices, basis, spreads, open interest, inventories, CFTC managed fund net positions, and ETF holdings, as well as the net position rankings of the top 10 futures companies in the Shanghai Silver Exchange [7][8]. Key Fundamental Data - **Federal Reserve - Related Data**: The upper limit of the federal funds target rate is 4.25%, the discount rate is 4.25%, the reserve balance interest rate is 4.15%, and the Fed's total assets are $66416.68 billion. M2 year - on - year growth is 4.77%. The 10 - year US Treasury real yield, US dollar index, and US Treasury spreads have changed to varying degrees [9]. - **Other Key Indicators**: There are data on US inflation, economic growth, labor market, real estate market, consumption, industry, trade, economic surveys, central bank gold reserves, IMF foreign exchange reserve ratios, and risk - hedging and commodity - related indices [11][13].

投资咨询系列报告 山金期货贵金属策略报告 更新时间：2025年10月10日16时18分 一、黄金 报告导读： 今日贵金属高位回调，沪金主力收跌1.25%，沪银主力收跌1.13%。①核心逻辑，短期避险方面，巴以冲突有所缓和，贸易战与美 国政府停摆避险仍存；美国经济滞涨风险增加，就业走弱通胀温和，联储降息预期开始兑现。②避险属性方面，以色列批准加沙停 火协议，停火将在24小时内生效。美国政府关门、法国总理辞职等事件，加剧市场不确定性。③货币属性方面，美联储威廉姆斯 支持今年继续降息，因就业市场或进一步放缓。美联储9月降息25个基点并暗示将进一步下调利率。9月ADP就业减少3.2万人，大 幅低于市场预期的新增5.1万人。美国PCE通胀数据符合预期，加强了美联储今年晚些时候可能继续降息的押注。目前市场预期美 联储10月降息25基点概率维持90%附近，且年内降息次数预期仍有2次左右。美元指数和美债收益率震荡偏强；④商品属性方面， CRB商品指数反弹承压，人民币升值利空国内价格。⑤预计贵金属短期金弱银强，中长期阶梯上行。 | 策略：稳健者观望，激进者高抛低吸。建议做好仓位管理，严格止损止盈。 | | --- | | 表1 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The prices of precious metals fluctuated upward. The main contract of Shanghai Gold closed up 4.82%, and the main contract of Shanghai Silver closed up 2.22%. It is expected that precious metals will fluctuate strongly in the short - term and rise in steps in the long - term [1]. - The price trend of gold is the anchor for the price of silver. In terms of capital, the net long position of CFTC silver and iShare silver ETF increased slightly. In terms of inventory, the recent explicit inventory of silver decreased slightly [4]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Gold - **Core Logic**: In the short - term, risks such as trade wars and the shutdown of the US government have increased, the risk of stagflation in the US economy has increased, employment has weakened, inflation has been moderate, and the Fed's expectation of interest rate cuts has begun to materialize. Events such as the US government shutdown and the resignation of the French Prime Minister have increased market uncertainty, and geopolitical changes in regions such as Russia - Ukraine and the Middle East still exist. The Fed cut interest rates by 25 basis points and hinted at further rate cuts. The ADP employment in September decreased by 32,000, far lower than the market - expected increase of 51,000. The Fed believes that the risk in the employment market has increased and remains vigilant about inflation. The US PCE inflation data met expectations, strengthening the bet that the Fed may continue to cut interest rates later this year. The market currently expects the probability of a 25 - basis - point rate cut by the Fed in October to remain around 90%, and the expected number of rate cuts within the year is still about 2 times. The US dollar index and US Treasury yields fluctuated strongly. The CRB commodity index rebounded under pressure, and the appreciation of the RMB was negative for domestic prices [1]. - **Strategy**: Conservative investors should wait and see, while aggressive investors can buy low and sell high. It is recommended to manage positions well and set strict stop - loss and take - profit levels [2]. - **Data**: International prices (Comex gold and London gold) and domestic prices (Shanghai Gold main contract and Gold T + D) all increased. There were also changes in various indicators such as basis, spread, ratio, position, and inventory [2]. Silver - **Core Logic**: The price trend of gold is the anchor for the price of silver. In terms of capital, the net long position of CFTC silver and iShare silver ETF increased slightly. In terms of inventory, the recent explicit inventory of silver decreased slightly [4]. - **Strategy**: Conservative investors should wait and see, while aggressive investors can buy on dips. It is recommended to manage positions well and set strict stop - loss and take - profit levels [5]. - **Data**: International prices (Comex silver and London silver) and domestic prices (Shanghai Silver main contract and Silver T + D) all increased. There were also changes in various indicators such as basis, spread, position, and inventory [5]. Fundamental Key Data - **Monetary Attributes**: The federal funds target rate upper limit, discount rate, and reserve balance interest rate all decreased by 0.25. The Fed's total assets decreased by 21.792 billion US dollars, with a decrease of 0.00%. M2 increased by 0.23% year - on - year. The ten - year US Treasury real yield, US dollar index, and US Treasury yield spread (3 - month - 10 - year) changed, and there were also changes in other key indicators such as the US Treasury yield spread (2 - year - 10 - year), US - Europe yield spread, and US - China yield spread [7][9]. - **Inflation Data**: CPI, core CPI, PCE price index, and other inflation - related data changed to varying degrees [9]. - **Economic Growth and Employment**: GDP, unemployment rate, non - farm employment, and other data showed different trends [9]. - **Real Estate Market**: Data such as existing home sales, new home sales, and new home starts in the US real estate market changed [9]. - **Consumption and Industry**: Retail sales, personal consumption expenditure, industrial production index, and other data changed [9]. - **Trade**: US export, import, and trade balance data changed [9]. - **Economic Surveys**: ISM manufacturing PMI, ISM services PMI, and other economic survey data changed [9]. - **Central Bank Gold Reserves and Foreign Exchange Reserves**: Central bank gold reserves in China, the US, and the world, as well as IMF foreign exchange reserve ratios and the ratio of gold to foreign exchange reserves, changed [11]. - **Safe - Haven and Commodity Attributes**: The geopolitical risk index decreased by 21.50%, the VIX index decreased by 2.04%, the CRB commodity index increased by 1.27%, and the offshore RMB exchange rate changed [11].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - Since 2025, precious metals have continued to rise, but gold and silver have shown divergence. Gold has repeatedly reached new historical highs, while silver has followed up slowly and faced pressure to fall back. The main driving factors include increased risk - aversion sentiment, expectations of interest rate cuts, and central banks' continued gold purchases. The current bull market in precious metals differs significantly from previous ones in terms of driving logic, amplitude, and the role of central banks. [4][5][7] - Looking ahead, before the Fed hints at the end of interest rate cuts around mid - 2026, precious metals may continue to rise. However, after the interest rate cuts enter the second half, attention should be paid to the risk of a rapid decline in precious metal prices due to profit - taking, and the overall volatility of precious metals may further increase. [64] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1. Market Review - Since 2025, gold has reached new highs, with London gold reaching a maximum of $3057.14 per ounce, Comex gold reaching $3065.2 per ounce, and domestic Shanghai gold reaching a maximum of 711.24 yuan per gram. Silver has followed up slowly, with London silver reaching a maximum of $34.224 per ounce and domestic Shanghai silver reaching a maximum of 8444 yuan per kilogram. [4] - The main logics for the rise of precious metals since the beginning of the year are: increased risk - aversion sentiment due to global economic and political restructuring, expectations of interest rate cuts, and central banks' continued gold purchases. [5][7] - This bull market in precious metals differs from previous ones in terms of driving logic (from "cyclical" to "structural"), amplitude and breadth (unprecedented global general increase), and the role of central banks (from "participants" to "leading forces"). [9][10] - The bull market in silver also differs from previous ones in terms of driving logic (from "investment - led" to "investment + industrial demand dual - driven"), breadth and synchronicity (global value re - evaluation), and the relationship with gold (from "following" to "potentially leading"). [12][13] 3.2. Evolution Logic of Safe - Haven Attribute - The world is in the process of transitioning to a new order, with the US no longer the dominant power. There are risks of trade wars, government shutdowns, and potential geopolitical conflicts, which may increase the demand for safe - haven assets. Trump's policy expectations affect precious metal prices through multiple channels, and in the short term, risk - aversion sentiment may support precious metal prices, while in the long term, trade frictions may increase inflation or lead to economic recession, making precious metals more attractive. [14][16] - The volatility of the US stock market may rise, which will increase the safe - haven value of precious metals. [19] 3.3. Evolution Logic of Monetary Attribute - In 2025, US inflation may experience "re - inflation", and the eurozone is close to achieving its anti - inflation target, but trade war risks pose pressure on future interest rate cuts. The Fed has adjusted its monetary policy framework, which may lead to potential changes in US dollar liquidity and have different impacts on various countries. [23] - The US employment situation may continue to weaken, and Trump's new policies may accelerate the decline in employment. Non - farm payroll data has a significant impact on the Fed's interest rate decisions and precious metal prices. [32][35] - The Fed is expected to continue to cut interest rates in 2025, with a total interest rate cut of about 50 basis points and the process expected to be completed around mid - 2026. The CME FedWatch Tool can help investors predict the Fed's interest rate trends. [41][42] - Global central bank monetary policies have shown significant divergence in recent years. The difference in interest rate cut expectations between the US and non - US countries is crucial. Later, the Fed's larger interest rate cut space may put pressure on the US dollar index. [45] 3.4. Evolution Logic of Commodity Attribute - In 2024, the global gold supply increased steadily, but demand declined. In 2025, demand is expected to continue to show structural divergence. Jewelry demand is suppressed by high gold prices, but official and private gold purchases offset some negative impacts. Gold ETFs, bars, and coins have strong demand, while gold jewelry demand shows a tonnage - consumption divergence. [51] - The World Silver Association predicts that in 2025, the global silver supply - demand gap will narrow by 21% to 117.6 million ounces (about 3658 tons) due to a 1% decline in demand and a 2% increase in total supply. [56] 3.5. Technical Analysis - London gold has been in an upward trend since 2000. After reaching a high in 2011 and then falling back, it has started a new upward trend since 2016. In 2025, it has accelerated its upward movement. It is expected to continue to rise before the Fed hints at the end of interest rate cuts around mid - 2026. Attention should be paid to the pressure levels of $3750 - 4000 (about 850 - 910 yuan for Shanghai gold) and the support level of $3400 (about 770 yuan for Shanghai gold). [58][59] - London silver has followed a similar trend to gold since 1994. Since 2016, it has oscillated upward along the 20 - year line. The recent rebound in global silver industrial demand may drive its price up. Attention should be paid to the pressure range of $49.8 - 55 (about 11780 - 13000 yuan for Shanghai silver) and the support level of $37.9 (about 8960 yuan for Shanghai silver). [62] 3.6. Future Market Development Direction from the Perspective of Long - Short Game - The reconstruction of the global economic and political system promotes the reconstruction of the monetary system. The safe - haven demand under global economic uncertainty and policy game are complexly intertwined. The continuous gold purchases by global central banks, the long - term Sino - US game, and repeated geopolitical conflicts still support the precious metal market. Before the Fed hints at the end of interest rate cuts around mid - 2026, precious metals may continue to rise, but attention should be paid to the risk of a rapid decline. [64] 3.7. Overview of the Domestic Precious Metal Industry Chain - In the first half of 2025, domestic raw material gold production was 179.083 tons, a year - on - year decrease of 0.31%. After including imported raw material gold, the total gold production was 252.761 tons, a year - on - year increase of 0.44%. Key gold mine projects are advancing rapidly, and large - scale gold enterprises' overseas mine production has increased. [67][68] - In the first half of 2025, domestic gold consumption was 505.205 tons, a year - on - year decrease of 3.54%. Gold jewelry consumption was suppressed by high prices, while demand for gold bars and coins increased, and industrial and other gold uses also increased. [69]