Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoint of the Report - The hype of "anti - involution" is gradually cooling down, and the market will shift its focus to the demand situation in the peak season. The current price increase is mainly driven by the rise in coking coal prices. With the end of the summer heat, the apparent demand is expected to gradually recover, and the total inventory is expected to gradually decline. The futures price may advance the expectation of the demand recovery in the peak season, and the market focus is expected to turn to the peak - season consumption in September [2]. - Currently, the profitability rate of steel mills is acceptable, with the profitable area of sample steel mills exceeding 68%. As the consumption peak season approaches, there is room for the iron - making water output of steel mills to rebound. However, the current iron - making water output is already at a relatively high level, so the room for further increase may be limited even in the peak season. The recent relatively strong performance of the futures price is largely related to the market's expectation of improved downstream demand [4]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs I. Threaded Steel and Hot - Rolled Coil - **Price and Basis Information**: The closing price of the threaded steel main contract is 3258 yuan/ton, up 0.25% from the previous day and 0.77% from last week. The closing price of the hot - rolled coil main contract is 3484 yuan/ton, up 0.55% from the previous day and 0.78% from last week. The basis of the threaded steel main contract is 112 yuan/ton, with a daily increase of 2 yuan and a weekly decrease of 15 yuan. The basis of the hot - rolled coil main contract is 26 yuan/ton, with a daily increase of 11 yuan and a weekly increase of 13 yuan [2]. - **Production and Supply**: The national building materials steel mill's threaded steel output is 221.18 tons, a week - on - week increase of 10.12 tons or 4.79%. The hot - rolled coil output is 314.89 tons, a week - on - week decrease of 7.90 tons or 2.45%. The blast furnace operating rate of 247 steel mills is 83.46%, and the average daily iron - making water volume of 247 steel mills is 240.32 tons, a week - on - week decrease of 0.39 tons or 0.16% [2]. - **Inventory and Demand**: The social inventory of five major varieties is 962.5 tons, a week - on - week increase of 20.13 tons or 2.14%. The social inventory of threaded steel is 388.48 tons, a week - on - week increase of 4.34 tons or 1.13%. The social inventory of hot - rolled coil is 278.75 tons, a week - on - week increase of 10.10 tons or 3.76%. The apparent demand of five major varieties is 845.74 tons, a week - on - week decrease of 6.29 tons or 0.74% [2]. - **Operation Suggestion**: Short - term short - selling can be considered at high prices, and profits should be taken in a timely manner [2]. II. Iron Ore - **Price and Basis Information**: The settlement price of the DCE iron ore main contract is 801 yuan/dry ton, up 0.56% from the previous day and 0.31% from last week. The SGX iron ore continuous - one settlement price is 104.43 US dollars/dry ton, up 0.90% from the previous day and 4.43% from last week. The basis of Mac fine (Qingdao Port) - DCE iron ore main contract is - 24 yuan/ton, with a weekly increase of 7.5 yuan [4]. - **Supply and Demand**: The overseas iron ore shipping volume shows that the Australian iron ore shipping volume is 1518.3 tons, a week - on - week decrease of 114.4 tons or 7.01%. The Brazilian iron ore shipping volume is 730.5 tons, a week - on - week increase of 55.0 tons or 8.14%. The 247 steel mills' iron - making water output last week was 240.3 tons, a week - on - week decrease of 0.4 tons [4]. - **Inventory Information**: The total port inventory is 13712.27 tons, a week - on - week increase of 54.37 tons or 0.40%. The port trade ore inventory is 9111.9 tons, a week - on - week increase of 69.45 tons or 0.77% [4]. - **Operation Suggestion**: Try short - selling at high prices for the 01 contract [4]. III. Industry News - The machine - inspection system at Gants Mod Port was upgraded, adjusting the vehicle customs - declaration weight error threshold. On the 11th, the customs clearance at Gants Mod Port was 809 vehicles, a 23.53% decrease from the previous period. It is expected that the number of customs - cleared vehicles at the port will rebound to over 1000 on the 13th [6]. - An individual coking enterprise in Shandong has a production - restriction plan from August 16th to August 25th with a 30% restriction and from August 26th to September 3rd with a 50% restriction, and will resume normal production at 0:00 on September 4th. It is expected to affect about 4.1 tons of coke production in total [6]. - Angang, Bengang, and Lingang have synchronously raised the product prices for September. The prices of hot - rolled, wire rod, and threaded steel have all been raised by 200 yuan/ton, and the prices of pickled, cold - rolled, cold - hardened, galvanized, and non - oriented silicon steel have been raised by 300 yuan/ton [6]. - Satellite data shows that from August 4th to August 10th, 2025, the total inventory of iron ore at seven major ports in Australia and Brazil was 1321.5 tons, a 37.5 - ton increase from the previous period, showing a slight inventory rebound [6]. - The total inventory of imported iron ore at 47 ports in China is 14400.58 tons, an 89.61 - ton increase from last Monday. The inventory increase in this period is mainly concentrated in the East and South China regions [7]. - A coal mine in Lvliang Liulin area resumed production on August 9th after a 22 - day shutdown. The coal mine has a verified production capacity of 175 tons, and the daily output of clean coal after resumption is 0.35 tons [7]. - Yunnan's central and state - owned cement enterprises reported that local cement enterprises will soon announce a price increase of 20 - 40 yuan/ton, and the cement price in some markets may bottom out and rebound [7].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Views of the Report - Recently, rebar and hot-rolled coils have maintained a volatile and slightly stronger trend, with price increases mainly driven by rising coking coal and coke prices. There may be opportunities to go long on the spread between near and far contracts of rebar, and it is worth trying to short the spread between hot-rolled coils and rebar in the short term. The ratio of rebar to iron ore is at a low level, presenting a good long - term long - opportunity, while the ratio of rebar to coke has entered a downward cycle [8][45]. - The market is a game between strong expectations and weak reality, with "anti - involution" trading supporting futures prices. Seasonal improvement in demand is expected to be reflected in prices in advance [8]. - With the arrival of the consumption peak season, overall steel production is likely to increase slightly, and inventory is expected to continue to decline [8][94]. 3. Summary According to the Table of Contents 3.1 Main Views - Supply: Due to good production profits, overall steel production has remained stable in the past quarter, with the output of five major varieties fluctuating between 850 - 900 million tons per week, rebar output at around 220 million tons per week, and hot - rolled coil output recently decreasing. Production is expected to rise slightly in the peak season [8][94]. - Demand: The apparent demand for rebar has increased month - on - month, while that for hot - rolled coils has decreased. The overall apparent demand for the five major varieties has continued to decline. Apparent demand is expected to recover after the end of the summer heat, but the increase will be limited [8][94]. - Inventory: Steel mill inventories are decreasing. Although social inventories rebounded last week, the total inventory of the five major varieties has increased but remains significantly lower than last year. Currently, inventory pressure is low, and inventory may continue to decline in the peak season [8][94]. - Futures price support: "Anti - involution" trading supports futures prices, and the market is a game between strong expectations and weak reality. Seasonal demand improvement is expected to be reflected in prices in advance [8][94]. - Price trends and trading opportunities: Recently, rebar and hot - rolled coils have been volatile and slightly stronger, driven by coking coal and coke prices. There may be opportunities to go long on the spread between near and far contracts of rebar, while there are no trading opportunities for hot - rolled coil spreads for now. It is worth trying to short the spread between hot - rolled coils and rebar in the short term. The ratio of rebar to iron ore is at a low level with significant upside potential, and the ratio of rebar to coke has entered a downward cycle [8][45]. - Trading strategy: Treat rebar and hot - rolled coils with a wide - range volatility mindset, avoid chasing highs or selling lows, and try high - selling and low - buying operations with firm profit - taking and slightly larger stop - losses. Price movements will follow coking coal and coke, but with smaller price changes [8][94]. 3.2 Review of the Rebar and Hot - Rolled Coil Futures and Spot Markets - Spot prices: Recently, rebar was generally weak, with prices in Shanghai and Guangzhou falling. Hot - rolled coils were generally strong, with prices in Shanghai, Guangzhou, and Tianjin rising by 10 - 40 yuan [12][13]. - Futures prices: Rebar futures prices rose and then fell, with the basis narrowing. Hot - rolled coil prices also rose and then fell, approaching flat price. The basis of the main contracts of rebar and hot - rolled coils generally showed a narrowing trend [15][17][18]. - Spreads: The spread between near and far contracts of rebar has been falling, and there may be long - spread opportunities. The inter - contract spread of hot - rolled coils has been narrowly fluctuating, with no trading opportunities. The spread between hot - rolled coils and rebar in the 10 - contract has rapidly expanded, deviating from the normal level, and shorting this spread is worth trying [21][23][26]. - Other spreads: The spreads between different regions and varieties have generally widened, indicating improved downstream processing profits [36][38]. 3.3 Analysis of Steel Supply and Demand - Supply: Recent crude steel production has significantly declined, mainly due to previous low prices and poor expectations. Steel weekly production is higher than last year, and the output of independent electric arc furnaces remains relatively high. Iron - water production has also decreased slightly [47][49][56]. - Demand: The apparent demand for building materials has improved month - on - month, while that for hot - rolled coils has weakened. Steel exports rebounded in July, with the growth rate accelerating, mainly driven by high - speed growth in billet exports [62][65][67]. - Profit: The decline in gross profit is mainly due to the recent significant increase in coking coal and coke prices compared to rebar. Currently, the valley - electricity profit in all regions has improved significantly, and only the southwest region has good flat - electricity profit. Profit is expected to continue to improve in the third quarter, so short - term electric arc furnace output is not expected to decline significantly [70][79]. - Inventory: Steel mill inventories of major varieties are increasing but still in a downward trend. Social inventories are continuously increasing, with hot - rolled coil inventories rebounding rapidly. The total inventory of major varieties has increased month - on - month but is still significantly lower than last year [80][83][86]. 3.4 Market Outlook and Investment Opportunity Analysis - Market outlook: "Anti - involution" continues to support futures prices, and seasonal improvement in demand may be reflected in prices in advance. The market will continue the game between strong expectations and weak reality [93]. - Investment opportunities: There may be opportunities to go long on the spread between near and far contracts of rebar, and it is worth trying to short the spread between hot - rolled coils and rebar in the short term. The ratio of rebar to iron ore is at a low level, presenting a good long - term long - opportunity, while the ratio of rebar to coke has entered a downward cycle [8][45].

Report Industry Investment Rating There is no information provided about the report industry investment rating in the documents. Core Viewpoints - The short - term trade agreements are reached in batches, the Russia - Ukraine talks are about to start, the risk - aversion demand declines; the risk of stagflation in the US economy increases, the employment weakens, the expectation of interest rate cuts rebounds, and the risk of rising inflation still exists [1]. - The gold price trend is the anchor of the silver price. In terms of capital, the net long position of CFTC silver and iShare silver ETF have slightly reduced their positions. In terms of inventory, the recent explicit inventory of silver has slightly increased [5]. - It is expected that precious metals will be volatile and weak in the short - term, fluctuate at a high level in the medium - term, and rise step - by - step in the long - term [1]. Summary by Directory Gold - **Market Performance**: Today, precious metals pulled back from high levels. The main contract of Shanghai Gold futures closed down 1.12%, and the main contract of Shanghai Silver futures closed down 0.62% [1]. - **Core Logic**: Short - term trade agreements are reached in batches, the Russia - Ukraine talks are about to start, the risk - aversion demand declines; the risk of stagflation in the US economy increases, the employment weakens, the expectation of interest rate cuts rebounds, and the risk of rising inflation still exists [1]. - **Attributes Analysis** - **Risk - aversion**: White House officials said that Trump had signed an executive order to extend the US - China tariff truce for another 90 days. Trump also said that gold would not face tariffs [1]. - **Monetary**: US employment growth in July was weaker than expected, and the non - farm payrolls increase in the previous two months was significantly revised down by 258,000, indicating a sharp deterioration in the labor market situation, increasing the possibility of the Fed cutting interest rates in September. The market's expected probability of a Fed interest rate cut in September soared from about 40% before the non - farm payrolls report to over 80%, and the expected number of interest rate cuts within the year increased from 1 to 2 - 3 times. The decline of the US dollar index and US Treasury yields faced resistance [1]. - **Commodity**: The rebound of the CRB commodity index was under pressure, and the strong RMB suppressed domestic prices [1]. - **Strategy**: Conservative investors should wait and see, while aggressive investors can sell high and buy low. It is recommended to manage positions well and set strict stop - loss and take - profit levels [1]. - **Data Summary**: Various gold - related data are provided, including international and domestic prices, basis and spreads, trading volume, inventory, CFTC management fund net positions, and gold ETF data [1]. Silver - **Price Anchor**: The gold price trend is the anchor of the silver price [5]. - **Fund and Inventory Situation**: In terms of capital, the net long position of CFTC silver and iShare silver ETF have slightly reduced their positions. In terms of inventory, the recent explicit inventory of silver has slightly increased [5]. - **Strategy**: Conservative investors should wait and see, while aggressive investors can sell high and buy low. It is recommended to manage positions well and set strict stop - loss and take - profit levels [6]. - **Data Summary**: Various silver - related data are provided, including international and domestic prices, basis and spreads, trading volume, inventory, CFTC management fund net positions, and silver ETF data [6]. Fundamental Key Data - **Fed - related Data**: The upper limit of the federal funds target rate is 4.50%, the discount rate is 4.50%, the reserve balance interest rate (IORB) is 4.40%, the Fed's total assets are 6,691.854 billion US dollars, M2 year - on - year growth is 4.54%, the 10 - year US Treasury real yield is 2.50%, the US dollar index is 98.49, and the US Treasury yield spread (3 - month to 10 - year) is 0.58 [8]. - **Inflation Data**: CPI year - on - year is 2.70%, CPI month - on - month is 0.30%, core CPI year - on - year is 2.90%, core CPI month - on - month is 0.30%, PCE price index year - on - year is 2.58%, core PCE price index year - on - year is 2.79%, the 1 - year inflation expectation of the University of Michigan in the US is 4.50%, and the 5 - year inflation expectation is 3.40 [10]. - **Economic Growth Data**: GDP annualized year - on - year growth is 1.90%, GDP annualized quarter - on - quarter growth is 3.00%, the unemployment rate is 4.20%, the monthly change in non - farm payrolls is 730,000, the labor participation rate is 62.70%, the average hourly wage growth rate is 3.90%, etc. [10]. - **Other Data**: It also includes data on the US real estate market, consumption, industry, trade, economic surveys, central bank gold reserves, IMF foreign exchange reserve ratios, risk - aversion and commodity - related indicators [10][11]. Fed's Latest Interest Rate Expectation The probability of different interest rate ranges at each Fed meeting from September 2025 to December 2026 is provided [12].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the report 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The short - term trade agreement dispute has resurfaced, and the Russia - Ukraine talks are about to begin, leading to a decline in risk - aversion demand. The risk of stagflation in the US economy has increased, employment has weakened, and the expectation of interest rate cuts has rebounded. There will still be an inflation test in the middle of the month. It is expected that precious metals will be weakly volatile in the short term, oscillate at a high level in the medium term, and rise step - by - step in the long term [2]. - The gold price trend is the anchor for the silver price. In terms of capital, the net long position of CFTC silver and iShare silver ETF have slightly reduced their positions. In terms of inventory, the visible inventory of silver has slightly increased recently [6]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Gold - **Market Performance**: Today, precious metals pulled back from high levels. The main contract of Shanghai gold closed down 0.81%, and the main contract of Shanghai silver closed down 0.72% [2]. - **Core Logic**: Short - term trade agreement disputes, upcoming Russia - Ukraine talks leading to reduced risk - aversion demand; increased US stagflation risk, weakened employment, and rebounding interest - rate cut expectations; inflation test in the middle of the month [2]. - **Attributes Analysis** - **Risk - Aversion Attribute**: US President Trump said on social media on Friday that he will meet with Russian President Putin in Alaska on August 15 to discuss ending the Ukraine war [2]. - **Monetary Attribute**: US employment growth in July was weaker than expected, and the non - farm payrolls in the previous two months were revised down by 258,000, increasing the possibility of a Fed rate cut in September. The market's expected probability of a Fed rate cut in September has soared from about 40% before the non - farm data to over 80%, and the expected number of rate cuts within the year has increased from 1 to 2 - 3 times. The decline of the US dollar index and US Treasury yields has encountered resistance [2]. - **Commodity Attribute**: The rebound of the CRB commodity index is under pressure, and the strong RMB suppresses domestic prices [2]. - **Strategy**: Conservative investors should wait and see, while aggressive investors can sell high and buy low. It is recommended to manage positions well and set strict stop - losses and take - profits [2][3]. - **Data Summary**: Various data such as international and domestic gold prices, basis, spreads, positions, inventories, CFTC management fund net positions, and gold ETF are provided, showing different changes compared with the previous day and the previous week [3]. Silver - **Price Anchor**: The gold price trend is the anchor for the silver price [6]. - **Fund and Inventory Situation**: The net long position of CFTC silver and iShare silver ETF have slightly reduced their positions, and the visible inventory of silver has slightly increased recently [6]. - **Strategy**: Conservative investors should wait and see, while aggressive investors can sell high and buy low. It is recommended to manage positions well and set strict stop - losses and take - profits [7]. - **Data Summary**: Various data such as international and domestic silver prices, basis, spreads, positions, inventories, CFTC management fund net positions, and silver ETF are provided, showing different changes compared with the previous day and the previous week [7]. Fundamental Key Data - **Fed - Related Data**: The upper limit of the federal funds target rate, discount rate, and reserve balance interest rate have all decreased by 0.25. The Fed's total assets are 6,691.854 billion US dollars, a decrease of 762 million US dollars compared with the previous week. M2 has increased by 0.37% year - on - year [9]. - **Other Key Data**: Data on ten - year US Treasury real yields, US dollar index, US Treasury yield spreads, inflation, economic growth, labor market, real estate market, consumption, industry, trade, and economic surveys are provided, showing different changes [9][10][11]. - **Central Bank Gold Reserve and Related Ratios**: Data on central bank gold reserves of China, the US, and the world, as well as ratios such as gold/foreign exchange reserves and IMF foreign exchange reserve proportions are provided, showing different changes [11][12]. - **Fed Interest Rate Expectations**: The probability of different Fed interest rate ranges at different meeting dates from 2025 to 2026 is provided [13].

2025 年 8 月 8 日星期五 投 资 就业走弱降息逻辑重启 贵金属仍需通过通胀大考？ www.shanjinqh.com 作者：林振龙 一、避险属性 投资 咨询资 格证号： 咨 询 部 1、特朗普贸易战进入新阶段，中美关税协议变数仍存。另外据英国《金 融时报》报道，美国海关与边境保护局（CBP）在一封日期为 7 月 31 日的信函 中宣布，将对进口的 1 公斤（约 32.15 盎司）和 100 盎司金条加征关税； Z0018476 审核：曹有明 2、地缘异动有所缓和，俄罗斯称普京和特朗普将在未来几天会晤，泽连 斯基称欧洲须参与谈判。 投资 咨询资 格证号： Z0013162 二、货币属性 复核：刘书语 1、金饰消费虽受高价抑制，但金条等投资需求抵消其部分影响。包括中 国央行在内，新兴市场央行"去美元化"战略推动央行购金需求保持高位； 近期 CFTC 管理基金金银净多头继续减仓；国内沪金期货公司净多高位连 续加仓，沪银净多低位重新加仓；世界最大黄金 ETF 和白银 ETF 结束长期下行 趋势后缓慢增仓。 五、未来的投资逻辑演变： 周 度 策 略 报 告 本周贵金属重新上行，主要逻辑在于：避险属性方面，特朗 ...

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided Group 2: Core Views of the Report - After the high - level meeting, the "anti - involution" hype faded, and the market will focus on the demand during the peak season. The steel market shows a situation of weak supply and demand, with potential further weakening of demand and rising inventory. For iron ore, the market is in the off - season, with high supply and limited upward space for iron - water production. Both steel and iron ore futures prices face downward pressure [2][4] - For steel, it is recommended to hold short positions and set stop - profits in time. For iron ore, short - term short positions can be held lightly with timely stop - profits [2][4] Group 3: Summary by Directory 1. Thread and Hot - Rolled Coil - **Market Focus**: After the meeting, the market turns to focus on the peak - season consumption in September. The market shows a weak supply - demand situation, with potential further weakening of demand due to the ongoing hot summer [2] - **Price and Spread**: The closing prices of rebar and hot - rolled coil futures have different changes compared to the previous day and week. Most spot prices have declined slightly. The basis and spreads of futures contracts also show various changes [2] - **Production and Profit**: The blast furnace operating rate of 247 steel mills remains stable, but the average daily iron - water volume has decreased. The proportion of profitable steel mills has increased. The rebar production has increased, while the hot - rolled coil production has decreased [2] - **Inventory**: The total inventory of the five major varieties has increased, with both social and factory inventories of rebar rising, and the social inventory of hot - rolled coil increasing while the factory inventory has decreased [2] - **Demand and Orders**: The apparent demand of the five major varieties has declined slightly. The trading volume in the spot market has decreased significantly [2] 2. Iron Ore - **Supply and Demand**: The steel mill profitability is acceptable, but the iron - water production is under pressure to decline. The global iron ore shipment is at a high level, and the port inventory is slowly decreasing, but the trade - mine inventory is high [4] - **Price and Spread**: The spot and futures prices of iron ore have different changes compared to the previous day and week. The basis, futures monthly spreads, and variety spreads also show various trends [4] - **Shipping and Logistics**: The Australian and Brazilian iron ore shipments have decreased. The shipping freight rates and exchange rates have changed, and the arrival volume of northern six ports has increased while the average daily port - clearance volume has decreased [4] - **Inventory**: The total port inventory and trade - mine inventory have decreased, and the sintered powder inventory of sample steel mills has also declined [4] 3. Industry News - HeSteel's August silicon - iron and silicon - manganese tender prices and quantities have changed compared to July [6] - Some coal mines have experienced production suspension and resumption, affecting the output of coking coal [6] - The average profit per ton of coke for 30 independent coking plants is - 16 yuan/ton, with different profit levels in different regions [7]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No industry investment rating is provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints - Gold is expected to be volatile and bullish in the short - term, oscillate at a high level in the medium - term, and rise step - by - step in the long - term. The core logic includes increased short - term trade agreement disputes leading to rising risk - aversion demand, and growing stagflation risks in the US economy with weakening employment and a rebound in interest - rate cut expectations [1]. - The price trend of gold is the anchor for the price of silver. Currently, there are small reductions in the net long position of CFTC silver and iShare silver ETF in terms of capital, and a small increase in the visible inventory of silver [5]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Gold - **Market Performance**: Today, precious metals are volatile and bullish. The main contract of Shanghai Gold closed up 0.10%, and the main contract of Shanghai Silver closed up 1.07% [1]. - **Core Logic** - **Risk - Aversion Attribute**: Trump's new round of tariffs triggered a global stock - market crash, and many countries sought renegotiation. Trump threatened to significantly increase tariffs on India, and Russian oil and geopolitics led to an escalation of trade conflicts [1]. - **Monetary Attribute**: US employment growth in July was weaker than expected, and the non - farm payrolls increase in the previous two months was revised down by 258,000, indicating a sharp deterioration in the labor - market situation. The probability of the Fed cutting interest rates in September increased from about 40% before the non - farm data to around 80%, and the expected number of interest - rate cuts within the year rose from 1 to 2. Many Fed officials signaled growing concerns about economic slowdown, causing the US dollar index and US Treasury yields to fall under pressure [1]. - **Commodity Attribute**: The rebound of the CRB commodity index was under pressure, and the strong RMB suppressed domestic prices [1]. - **Strategy**: Conservative investors should wait and see, while aggressive investors can sell high and buy low. It is recommended to manage positions well and set strict stop - loss and take - profit levels [2]. - **Data Summary** - **Prices**: International prices such as Comex gold and London gold, and domestic prices like Shanghai Gold main contract and Gold T + D showed different changes compared to the previous day and week [2]. - **Basis, Spreads, and Ratios**: The basis and spreads between Shanghai Gold and London Gold, and ratios such as the gold - silver ratio and gold - copper ratio also had corresponding changes [2]. - **Positions and Inventories**: Positions in Comex gold, Shanghai Gold main contract, and Gold T + D, as well as inventories in LBMA, Comex, and Shanghai Gold Exchange, showed different trends [2]. - **Net Positions of Futures Companies**: The top 10 futures companies' net long and net short positions in Shanghai Gold on the Shanghai Futures Exchange had specific data and changes [3]. Silver - **Core Relationship**: The price trend of gold is the anchor for the price of silver [5]. - **Current Situation**: There are small reductions in the net long position of CFTC silver and iShare silver ETF in terms of capital, and a small increase in the visible inventory of silver [5]. - **Strategy**: Conservative investors should wait and see, while aggressive investors can buy on dips. It is recommended to manage positions well and set strict stop - loss and take - profit levels [6]. - **Data Summary** - **Prices**: International prices such as Comex silver and London silver, and domestic prices like Shanghai Silver main contract and Silver T + D showed different changes compared to the previous day and week [6]. - **Basis and Spreads**: The basis and spreads between Shanghai Silver and London Silver had corresponding changes [6]. - **Positions and Inventories**: Positions in Comex silver, Shanghai Silver main contract, and Silver T + D, as well as inventories in LBMA, Comex, Shanghai Silver Exchange, and the total visible inventory, showed different trends [6]. - **Net Positions of Futures Companies**: The top 10 futures companies' net long and net short positions in Shanghai Silver on the Shanghai Futures Exchange had specific data and changes [7]. Fundamental Key Data - **Monetary Attribute Key Indicators** - Federal funds target rate upper limit is 4.50%, with a decrease of 0.25 compared to the previous value; the Fed's total assets are 6692.931 billion US dollars, a decrease of 16.008 billion US dollars (- 0.00%) [8]. - M2 year - on - year growth rate is 4.54%, an increase of 0.37 [8]. - Ten - year US Treasury real yield is 2.50%, with a daily increase of 0.02 (0.81%) and a weekly decrease of 0.04 (- 1.57%) [8]. - US dollar index is 98.23, a daily decrease of 0.54 (- 0.54%) and a weekly decrease of 1.72 (- 1.72%) [8]. - Other indicators such as US Treasury yield spreads, inflation rates (CPI, core CPI), economic growth indicators (GDP), labor - market indicators, real - estate market indicators, consumption indicators, industrial indicators, trade indicators, and economic survey indicators also have specific data and changes [8][10]. - **Safe - Haven Attribute** - Geopolitical risk index is 123.07, with no daily change and a weekly decrease of 77.02 (- 38.49%) [11]. - VIX index is 16.39, a daily decrease of 0.38 (- 2.27%) and a weekly decrease of 0.33 (- 1.97%) [11]. - **Commodity Attribute** - CRB commodity index is 293.13, a daily decrease of 0.20 (- 0.07%) and a weekly decrease of 6.65 (- 2.22%) [11]. - Offshore RMB is 7.1930, with no daily change and a weekly decrease of 0.0063 (- 0.09%) [11]. - **Central Bank Gold Reserves** - China's central - bank gold reserve is 2300.41 tons, an increase of 4.04 tons (0.18%) [10]. - US central - bank gold reserve is 8133.46 tons, with no change [11]. - Global central - bank gold reserve is 36268.07 tons, with no change [11]. - **IMF Foreign - Exchange Reserves and Gold/Reserves Ratio** - The proportion of the US dollar in IMF foreign - exchange reserves is 57.80%, an increase of 0.51 (0.88%) [11]. - The proportion of the euro is 19.83%, a decrease of 0.20 (- 0.99%) [11]. - The proportion of the RMB is 2.18%, a decrease of 0.00 (- 0.04%) [11]. - The global gold/foreign - exchange reserves ratio is 22.18%, an increase of 0.88 (4.11%) [11]. - China's gold/foreign - exchange reserves ratio is 6.78%, an increase of 0.29 (4.40%) [11]. - The US gold/foreign - exchange reserves ratio is 78.64%, an increase of 0.67 (0.86%) [11]. - **Fed's Latest Interest - Rate Expectations** - The probabilities of different interest - rate ranges at various Fed meetings from 2025/9/17 to 2026/12/9 are provided, showing the market's expectations for the Fed's interest - rate decisions [12].

投资咨询系列报告 山金期货贵金属策略报告 更新时间：2025年08月06日16时53分 投资咨询系列报告 二、白银 一、黄金 报告导读： 今日贵金属震荡偏强，沪金主力收跌0.08%，沪银主力收涨1.19%。①核心逻辑，短期贸易协议争议再起，避险需求上行；美国经 济滞涨风险增加，就业走弱降息预期反弹。②避险属性方面，特朗普新一轮关税引发全球股市暴跌，多国寻求重新谈判。特朗普威 胁大幅提高印度商品关税，俄油和地缘政治导致贸易冲突升级。③货币属性方面，美国7月就业增长弱于预期，此前两个月的非农 就业岗位增幅遭大幅下修25.8万个，暗示劳动力市场状况急剧恶化，使得美联储9月降息的可能性增加。目前市场预期美联储9月 降息概率从非农前40%左右快递飙升至80附近%，且年内降息次数预期从1次涨至2次。关税飙升导致美国6月贸易逆差创近两年最 低，对华逆差创21年来新低。美元指数和美债收益遇阻反弹；④商品属性方面，CRB商品指数反弹承压，人民币偏强压制国内价格 。⑤预计贵金属短期金弱银强，中期高位震荡，长期阶梯上行。 | 策略：稳健者观望，激进者高抛低吸。建议做好仓位管理，严格止损止盈。 | | --- | | 表1 黄金相关 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided in the given content. 2. Core Views of the Report - The short - term trade agreement dispute has resurfaced, increasing the demand for hedging, and the risk of stagflation in the US economy has increased, with the weakening employment leading to a rebound in the expectation of interest rate cuts. It is expected that precious metals will be volatile and strong in the short term, oscillate at a high level in the medium term, and rise in steps in the long term [1]. - The gold price trend is the anchor for the silver price. In terms of capital, the net long position of CFTC silver and the iShare silver ETF have slightly reduced their positions. In terms of inventory, the recent visible inventory of silver has slightly increased [5]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Gold - **Core Logic**: Short - term trade agreement disputes increase hedging demand; the risk of US economic stagflation rises, and the weak employment situation leads to a rebound in interest - rate cut expectations. The new round of tariffs by Trump has caused a global stock market crash, and many countries are seeking renegotiation. The weak US employment growth in July and the significant downward revision of non - farm payrolls in the previous two months have increased the possibility of the Fed cutting interest rates in September. The market's expectation of the Fed's interest - rate cut probability in September has soared from about 40% to about 80%, and the expected number of interest - rate cuts within the year has increased from 1 to 3. The US dollar index and US bond yields have fallen under pressure. The CRB commodity index's rebound is under pressure, and the strong RMB suppresses domestic prices [1]. - **Strategy**: Conservative investors should wait and see, while aggressive investors can buy on dips. It is recommended to manage positions well and set strict stop - loss and take - profit levels [2]. - **Data Summary**: International prices such as Comex gold and London gold have increased, and domestic prices like Shanghai gold and gold T + D have also risen. There are changes in positions, inventories, and other aspects. For example, the position of Comex gold has decreased by 0.73% compared with the previous week, and the inventory of Comex gold has decreased by 1.08% [2]. - **Net Position Ranking**: In the net position ranking of Shanghai gold of futures companies' members on the Shanghai Futures Exchange, the net long positions of the top 10 companies in total increased by 7,617, and the net short positions decreased by 133 [3]. Silver - **Core Logic**: The gold price trend is the anchor for the silver price. There are slight reductions in the net long position of CFTC silver and the iShare silver ETF, and a slight increase in recent visible inventory [5]. - **Strategy**: Conservative investors should wait and see, while aggressive investors can buy on dips. It is recommended to manage positions well and set strict stop - loss and take - profit levels [6]. - **Data Summary**: International prices such as Comex silver and London silver have changed, and domestic prices like Shanghai silver and silver T + D have also adjusted. There are also changes in positions, inventories, etc. For example, the position of Comex silver has decreased by 1.93% compared with the previous week, and the visible inventory has increased by 0.46% [6]. - **Net Position Ranking**: In the net position ranking of Shanghai silver of futures companies' members on the Shanghai Futures Exchange, the net long positions of the top 10 companies in total decreased by 2,778, and the net short positions increased by 5,610 [7]. Fundamental Key Data - **Monetary Attributes**: The federal funds target rate, discount rate, and reserve balance rate have all decreased by 0.25%. The Fed's total assets have decreased by 0.00%. There are also changes in indicators such as M2, ten - year US Treasury real yield, and US dollar index [8]. - **Inflation in the US**: Indicators such as CPI, core CPI, and PCE price index have changed. For example, the year - on - year CPI has increased by 0.30% [10]. - **US Economic Growth**: GDP has changed both year - on - year and quarter - on - quarter. The unemployment rate has increased by 0.10%, and other labor - market indicators have also adjusted [10]. - **US Real Estate Market**: The NAHB housing market index has increased by 3.13%, while new home sales have decreased by 19.64% [10]. - **US Consumption**: Retail sales, personal consumption expenditures, and other indicators have changed. For example, the year - on - year retail sales have decreased by 1.84% [10]. - **US Industry**: The industrial production index has increased both year - on - year and month - on - month, and the capacity utilization rate has increased by 0.16% [10]. - **US Trade**: Exports and imports have changed both year - on - year and month - on - month, and the trade balance has decreased by 18.69% [10]. - **US Economic Surveys**: The Michigan consumer confidence index has increased by 9.50%, while the small - and - medium - sized enterprise optimism index has decreased by 0.20% [10]. - **Central Bank Gold Reserves**: The gold reserves of China, the US, and the world have their own changes, and the proportion of gold in foreign exchange reserves has also adjusted. For example, the global proportion of gold in foreign exchange reserves has increased by 4.11% [12]. - **Hedging Attributes**: The geopolitical risk index has increased by 51.84%, and the VIX index has decreased by 5.54% [12]. - **Commodity Attributes**: The CRB commodity index has decreased by 2.70%, and the offshore RMB has increased by 0.65% [12]. Fed's Latest Interest Rate Expectations The probability of the Fed's interest - rate cuts in different periods from September 2025 to December 2026 is presented in the table, showing the changing trends of market expectations for interest - rate cuts [13].

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints - Since late 2022, the continuous uptrend of Shanghai Gold's main contract has been driven by factors such as the risk - aversion and interest - rate cut logics. Recently, with the easing of trade - war risk aversion and the delay of interest - rate cut expectations, precious metals face increased pressure to correct. Gold has been oscillating at a high level after the imposition of reciprocal tariffs, and its risk - aversion value has a more significant impact. Silver, which previously had higher volatility than gold but lower average gains in recent years due to its industrial attributes, has seen consecutive catch - up gains since the second half of the year, with its recent gains exceeding those of gold [6][12]. - Risk - aversion events often trigger market movements, while the long - term trend is jointly determined by the monetary and commodity attributes of precious metals. In recent years, the monetary policies of global central banks have shown significant divergence. The difference in interest - rate cut expectations between non - US currencies and the US is crucial, and the Fed has more room for interest - rate cuts in the later stage. Currently, the market expects the Fed to keep interest rates unchanged in September, with the next possible rate cut in October 2025, and the expected total rate - cut space by the end of the year has dropped to 25 basis points [7][20][23]. - The restructuring of the economic system is driving the reconstruction of the monetary system, and the upward movement of precious metals may continue to be the path of least resistance. The inversion of the 3 - month to 10 - year US Treasury yield spread, which the Fed focuses on, has recently corrected from its high level, reducing the risk of a US economic recession. The US - Europe yield spread is oscillating upwards, while the US - China yield spread has significantly declined. Trade wars have pushed up US inflation expectations, putting the Fed in a dilemma, and the expected real yield of US Treasuries has decreased, reducing the opportunity cost of holding gold [8][42][46]. Summary Based on Relevant Catalogs I. Precious Metals Recent Market Review - Since late 2022, Shanghai Gold's main contract has approximately doubled, with the risk - aversion and interest - rate cut logics jointly driving the trend. Recently, the easing of trade - war risk aversion and the delay of interest - rate cut expectations have increased the correction pressure on precious metals [12]. - After the imposition of reciprocal tariffs, gold has been oscillating at a high level. Compared with the previous two bull markets, the Fed has been more cautious in cutting interest rates during this bull market, and the risk - aversion value of gold has a more significant impact [15]. - Previously, silver had higher volatility than gold, but in recent years, its average gains have been lower than those of gold due to the significant drag of its industrial attributes. Since the second half of the year, silver has seen consecutive catch - up gains, with its gains exceeding those of gold [17]. II. Precious Metals Investment Logic Evolution - Risk - aversion events often trigger market movements, and the long - term trend is jointly determined by the monetary and commodity attributes of precious metals [20]. - In recent years, the monetary policies of global central banks have shown significant divergence. Non - US currencies have a significant impact on precious metals, and the difference in interest - rate cut expectations between non - US currencies and the US is particularly crucial. The Fed has more room for interest - rate cuts in the later stage [23]. - In terms of the comparison of interest rates among major economies, non - US economies cut interest rates faster than the US in the early stage, but recently, the pace of interest - rate cuts in non - US economies has slowed down, and the expected yield spread has declined from its high level [24]. - Currently, the market expects the Fed to keep interest rates unchanged in September, with the next possible rate cut in October 2025, and the expected total rate - cut space by the end of the year has dropped to 25 basis points, which is higher than the June dot - plot [27]. - Comparing the inflation rates of major economies, inflation in major economies has recently rebounded as a whole, and trade wars may bring widespread inflationary pressure [31]. - In terms of the economic growth rates of major economies, the US growth rate has slowed down but remains strong overall, while the growth rates of non - US economies are rising from the bottom [34]. - According to the latest July 2025 IMF economic growth rate forecast, the expected economic growth rates of the US for this year and next year are 1.9% and 2%, respectively, and those of the Eurozone are 1% and 1.2%, respectively. The pressure on the Fed to cut interest rates has been somewhat alleviated [37]. III. Precious Metals Future Trend Outlook - The restructuring of the economic system is driving the reconstruction of the monetary system, and in the medium - to long - term, the upward movement of precious metals may continue to be the path of least resistance [42]. - In the process of "de - dollarization," the proportion of the US dollar in global central bank foreign exchange reserves (stock) and international payments (flow) has decreased, while the proportion of gold has increased significantly. However, the US dollar still maintains a dominant position, and "de - dollarization" is still a long - term process [44]. - The inversion of the 3 - month to 10 - year US Treasury yield spread, which the Fed focuses on, has recently corrected from its high level, reducing the risk of a US economic recession. The US - Europe yield spread is oscillating upwards, while the US - China yield spread has significantly declined [46]. - Trade wars have pushed up US inflation expectations, putting the Fed in a dilemma. The expected real yield of US Treasuries has decreased, reducing the opportunity cost of holding gold. The US dollar index is in a long - term downward trend but still has strong support [48]. - Regarding the risk - aversion attribute of precious metals, the CBOE Volatility Index (VIX) of the S&P 500 is in an ultra - low range in recent years and has shown recent fluctuations. The uncertainty of US economic policies has remained high since Trump took office [49]. - In terms of the capital side, since the beginning of this year, the net long positions of gold and silver in CFTC holdings have recently decreased overall. The SPDR Gold ETF and iShare Silver ETF have been continuously reducing their positions since 2021, but have shown an increasing trend again since the beginning of this year [52]. - In 2025, the global gold supply is expected to be stable. The demand for gold jewelry is less affected by high gold prices, and there is still potential for private and central bank investment demand [56]. - The World Silver Institute stated in April that due to a 1% decrease in demand and a 2% increase in total supply, the global silver supply - demand gap is expected to narrow by 21% in 2025, dropping to 117.6 million ounces, approximately 3,658 tons [58]. - Most of Trump's policies have not been implemented yet. The policy expectations in the later stage are short - term negative for precious metals. The trade war has reached a stalemate, and the previous positive factors have been reversed [59]. - From a technical analysis perspective, London Gold is expected to be weakly oscillating in the short - term but remains bullish in the medium - to long - term. It is recommended to pay attention to the effectiveness of the resistance at 3,400 (Shanghai Gold's main contract at around 790) and the support at 3,140 (Shanghai Gold's main contract at around 730) [60]. - London Silver is also expected to be weakly oscillating in the short - term but remains bullish in the medium - to long - term. Pay attention to whether it can break through the resistance in the 40 range (Shanghai Silver's main contract at around 9,700) and the effectiveness of the support at 34.8 (Shanghai Silver's main contract at around 8,400) [63]. - The gold - silver ratio is currently at the 8.23% percentile in the past 20 years, with an average value of 70.3990. The expected interest - rate cut is still far off, and the trade war remains uncertain. Anti - involution commodities are under pressure to correct, and the downward trend of the gold - silver ratio has slowed down [66].