Report Summary 1. Investment Rating No investment rating for the industry is provided in the report. 2. Core Views - **Steel Products (Rebar and Hot - Rolled Coil)**: Last week, rebar's apparent demand and production decreased, and inventory continued to decline. Hot - rolled coil inventory also decreased but remained significantly higher than historical levels. Due to a sharp decline in steel mill margins and the end of the consumption peak, steel mills may cut production more than normal seasonal levels, potentially triggering a negative feedback loop. Recently, coal - coke and iron ore prices have weakened, reducing cost support for steel. Technically, rebar and hot - rolled coil showed a short - term rapid rise but faced resistance from the 60 - day moving average and the upper Bollinger Band. The mid - term downward trend remains unchanged [2]. - **Iron Ore**: Last week, the sample steel mills' hot metal production increased slightly, but the output of the five major steel products continued to decline. With the arrival of the consumption off - season, hot metal production is likely to decline seasonally, and steel mills' production cuts will suppress raw material prices. On the supply side, global shipments have decreased from their peak, and port inventory is rising, suppressing the futures price. The slow inventory reduction of steel products also dampens market sentiment. Technically, the 01 - contract price broke through the middle Bollinger Band but faced resistance from the dense trading area, remaining in a wide - range oscillation at a relatively high level [5]. 3. Summary by Directory Rebar and Hot - Rolled Coil - **Prices**: Rebar and hot - rolled coil futures and spot prices showed different trends. For example, the rebar futures price decreased slightly compared to the previous day but increased compared to last week. The hot - rolled coil futures price also decreased slightly from the previous day but increased from last week. Some spot prices increased, while others decreased [3]. - **Production and Profitability**: The 247 - steel - mill blast furnace operating rate was 83.13%, and the daily average hot metal output was 236.88 million tons. The proportion of profitable steel mills was 38.96%. National rebar and hot - rolled coil production decreased last week, with rebar production dropping by 4.10% and hot - rolled coil production by 1.41% [3]. - **Inventory**: The social and steel - mill inventories of the five major steel products decreased. Rebar social and steel - mill inventories decreased by 2.34% and 3.85% respectively, while hot - rolled coil social inventory decreased slightly by 0.01%, and steel - mill inventory increased by 0.12% [3]. - **Apparent Demand**: The apparent demand for the five major steel products decreased by 0.73% compared to last week, with rebar and hot - rolled coil showing similar downward trends [3]. - **Operation Suggestion**: Maintain a wait - and - see approach, avoid chasing up or selling down. Wait patiently for price corrections before taking long - term positions for mid - term trading [2]. Iron Ore - **Prices**: Spot and futures prices of iron ore increased compared to the previous day and last week. For example, the DCE iron ore主力 contract settlement price increased by 0.44% compared to the previous day and 3.80% compared to last week [5]. - **Supply and Demand**: Demand is expected to decline as steel mills cut production. Supply - side global shipments are decreasing, and port inventory is rising. The arrival volume is expected to decline in the future [5]. - **Operation Suggestion**: Maintain a wait - and - see approach, wait patiently for price corrections before taking long - term positions for mid - term trading [5]. Industry News - **Steel Mill Maintenance**: Shanxi Gaoyi plans to shut down a 1380m³ blast furnace for maintenance on November 23, affecting daily hot metal production by about 0.45 million tons and wire rod production by about 0.5 million tons [7]. - **Iron Ore Inventory**: The total inventory of imported iron ore at 47 Chinese ports decreased by 20.04 million tons compared to last Monday. From November 10 to 16, the total iron ore inventory at seven major ports in Australia and Brazil increased by 22.7 million tons, reaching the highest level since the fourth quarter [7]. - **Brazilian Iron Ore Shipment**: In the second week of November 2025, Brazil shipped 1705.39 million tons of iron ore, with a daily average shipment of 170.54 million tons per day, a 3.23% decrease compared to November last year [7]. - **Glass Deep - Processing Orders**: As of November 17, the average order days of national glass deep - processing sample enterprises decreased by 8.9% compared to the previous period and 24.2% year - on - year [8].

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Views of the Report - Today, precious metals fluctuated downward, with the main contract of Shanghai Gold closing down 1.33% and the main contract of Shanghai Silver closing down 2.54%. The short - term safe - haven factor: the negative impact of the China - US talks has been realized, but geopolitical risks still exist; the US employment is weakening and inflation is moderate, Fed officials are hawkish, and the expectation of interest rate cuts has been adjusted back. The safe - haven attribute: the results and consensus of the China - US economic and trade consultations have been announced, and geopolitical risks in regions such as Russia - Ukraine and the Middle East still exist. The monetary attribute: more Fed policymakers have hinted at caution regarding a December interest rate cut. The market is waiting for more economic data, and the probability of a 25 - basis - point interest rate cut by the Fed in December remains below 50%. The US dollar index and US Treasury yields are facing resistance on the downside and are relatively strong. The commodity attribute: the CRB commodity index fluctuates weakly, and the depreciation of the RMB is beneficial to domestic prices. It is expected that precious metals will fluctuate weakly in the short term, oscillate at a high level in the medium term, and rise step - by - step in the long term. The price trend of gold is the anchor for the price of silver. In terms of capital, the net long position of CFTC silver and the iShare silver ETF have slightly increased their positions. In terms of inventory, the recent visible inventory of silver has slightly decreased [1][5]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Gold - **Strategy**: Conservative investors should wait and see, while aggressive investors can buy low and sell high. It is recommended to manage positions well and set strict stop - loss and take - profit levels [2]. - **Gold - related Data**: - **International Prices**: The closing price of the Comex gold main contract was $4045.10 per ounce, down $39.30 (-0.96%) from the previous day and down $78.30 (-1.90%) from the previous week. The price of London gold was $4072.50 per ounce, up $1.40 (0.03%) from the previous day and down $17.75 (-0.43%) from the previous week. - **Domestic Prices**: The closing price of the Shanghai Gold main contract was 918.52 yuan per gram, down 10.94 yuan (-1.18%) from the previous day and down 30.36 yuan (-3.20%) from the previous week. The closing price of Gold T + D was 915.55 yuan per gram, down 14.67 yuan (-1.58%) from the previous day and down 30.95 yuan (-3.27%) from the previous week. - **Basis, Spread, and Ratio**: The difference between the Shanghai Gold main contract and London gold was - 8.57 yuan per gram, with a significant change compared to the previous day and week. The gold - to - silver ratio (London gold/London silver) was 79.77, up 1.88 (2.42%) from the previous day and down 1.97 (-2.41%) from the previous week. - **Positions**: The position of Comex gold was 528,789 lots (100 ounces per lot), unchanged from the previous day and week. The position of the Shanghai Gold main contract was 90,872 lots (kilograms per lot), down 10,851 lots (-10.67%) from the previous day and down 40,173 lots (-30.66%) from the previous week. - **Inventory**: The LBMA inventory was 8,598 tons, unchanged. The Comex gold inventory was 1,152 tons, down 13 tons (-1.08%) from the previous week. The Shanghai Gold inventory was 18 tons, with a small change compared to the previous day and week [2]. - **Top 10 Net Positions of Futures Companies in Shanghai Gold on the Shanghai Futures Exchange**: The net long positions of the top 5, 10, and 20 companies had different changes compared to the previous day, with the top 10 net long positions totaling 91,567.00, down 2,014.00 (27.40%). The net short positions of the top 10 companies also had corresponding changes, with the top 10 net short positions totaling 18,604.00, up 251.00 (5.57%) [3]. Silver - **Strategy**: Similar to gold, conservative investors should wait and see, while aggressive investors can buy low and sell high. Position management and strict stop - loss and take - profit are recommended [6]. - **Silver - related Data**: - **International Prices**: The closing price of the Comex silver main contract was $50.05 per ounce, down $0.35 (-0.69%) from the previous day and down $0.36 (-0.70%) from the previous week. The price of London silver was $51.06 per ounce, down $0.95 (-1.84%) from the previous day and up $1.02 (2.03%) from the previous week. - **Domestic Prices**: The closing price of the Shanghai Silver main contract was 11,699.00 yuan per kilogram, down 234.00 yuan (-1.96%) from the previous day and down 181.00 yuan (-1.52%) from the previous week. The closing price of Silver T + D was 11,697.00 yuan per kilogram, down 273.00 yuan (-2.28%) from the previous day and down 168.00 yuan (-1.42%) from the previous week. - **Basis and Spread**: The difference between the Shanghai Silver main contract and London silver was 35.30 yuan per gram, with a significant change compared to the previous day and week. - **Positions**: The position of Comex silver was 165,805 lots (5000 ounces per lot), unchanged from the previous day and week. The position of the Shanghai Silver main contract was 4,836,015 lots (kilograms per lot), up 163,290 lots (3.49%) from the previous day and up 768,660 lots (18.90%) from the previous week. - **Inventory**: The total visible inventory was 42,209 tons, down 191 tons (-0.45%) from the previous day and down 391 tons (-0.92%) from the previous week [6]. - **Top 10 Net Positions of Futures Companies in Shanghai Silver on the Shanghai Futures Exchange**: The net long positions of the top 5, 10, and 20 companies had different changes compared to the previous day. The net short positions of the top 10 companies also had corresponding changes, with the top 10 net short positions totaling 55,928.00, up 3,493.00 (7.77%) [7]. Fundamental Key Data - **Monetary Attribute - Related Data**: The upper limit of the federal funds target rate was 4.00%, the discount rate was 4.00%, and the reserve balance interest rate (IORB) was 3.90%. The total assets of the Fed were $6,631.098 billion, up $74.55 (0.00%) from the previous week. The year - on - year growth rate of M2 was 4.49%, up 0.07 percentage points. The real yield of the 10 - year US Treasury was 2.42%, up 0.02 (0.83%) from the previous day and week. The US dollar index was 99.53, up 0.25 (0.25%) from the previous day and down 0.09 (-0.09%) from the previous week. The yield spread between 3 - month and 10 - year US Treasuries was 0.37, up 0.04 (12.12%) from the previous day and down 0.01 (-2.78%) from the previous week [8]. - **Other Key Indicators**: - **Inflation**: The year - on - year CPI was 3.00%, and the month - on - month CPI was 0.30%. The year - on - year core CPI was 3.00%, and the month - on - month core CPI was 0.30%. - **Economic Growth**: The annualized year - on - year GDP growth rate was 2.00%, down 0.30 percentage points. The annualized quarter - on - quarter GDP growth rate was 3.80%, up 4.40 percentage points. - **Labor Market**: The unemployment rate was 4.30%, up 0.10 percentage points. The monthly change in non - farm payrolls was 2.20 million, down 0.57 million. - **Real Estate Market**: The NAHB housing market index was 37.00, up 5.00 (15.63%). The existing home sales were 4.06 million units, up 5.00 (1.25%). The new home sales were 0.66 million units, up 0.10 million (15.15%). - **Consumption**: The year - on - year growth rate of retail sales was 3.76%, down 0.26 percentage points. The month - on - month growth rate of retail sales was 0.72%, down 0.27 percentage points. - **Industry**: The year - on - year growth rate of the industrial production index was 0.87%, down 0.39 percentage points. The month - on - month growth rate of the industrial production index was 0.10%, up 0.47 percentage points. - **Trade**: The year - on - year growth rate of exports was - 25.17%, up 1.86 percentage points. The month - on - month growth rate of exports was 1.79%, down 6.77 percentage points. - **Central Bank Gold Reserves**: China's central bank gold reserves were 2304.46 tons, up 2.18 tons (0.09%). The US central bank gold reserves were 8133.46 tons, unchanged. - **IMF Foreign Exchange Reserves**: The proportion of the US dollar was 57.80%, up 0.51 percentage points. The proportion of the euro was 19.83%, down 0.20 percentage points. The proportion of the RMB was 2.18%, down 0.00 percentage points. - **Safe - haven and Commodity Attributes**: The geopolitical risk index was 90.76, down 7.64 (-7.76%) from the previous day and down 2.12 (-2.28%) from the previous week. The VIX index was 22.38, up 2.55 (12.86%) from the previous day and up 4.78 (27.16%) from the previous week. The CRB commodity index was 301.64, down 0.71 (-0.23%) from the previous day and down 5.41 (-1.76%) from the previous week [10][12]. - **Fed's Latest Interest Rate Expectations**: The probability of different interest rate ranges at each Fed meeting from December 2025 to October 2027 is given, showing the market's expectations for the Fed's interest rate adjustments [13].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided in the report about the industry investment rating. 2. Core Viewpoints - For the thread steel and hot-rolled coil sector, the supply-demand situation shows that the apparent demand for thread steel decreased last week, production declined, and inventory continued to fall. Hot-rolled coil inventory also decreased but remained significantly higher than historical levels. As steel mill profit margins have dropped sharply and the peak consumption period has passed, mill production cuts may exceed the normal seasonal scale, potentially triggering a negative feedback loop. Recently, coking coal and coke prices have weakened, and iron ore prices have fallen from their highs, reducing cost support for steel. Technically, on the daily K-line chart, both thread steel and hot-rolled coil have risen rapidly in the short term, facing resistance from the 60-day moving average and the upper Bollinger Band. The Bollinger Band opening is narrowing, and while prices may stabilize, the medium-term downward trend remains unchanged [2]. - Regarding the iron ore sector, last week, the sample steel mill's molten iron production increased slightly, but the output of the five major steel products continued to decline. With the arrival of the consumption off-season, molten iron production is expected to follow the seasonal trend and decline, putting pressure on raw material prices. On the supply side, global shipments have decreased from their peak, and port inventories are rising, suppressing futures prices. Slow inventory reduction in the steel market also dampens overall market sentiment. Technically, the futures price of the 01 contract has broken through the middle Bollinger Band but faces resistance from a dense trading area and continues to trade in a relatively high range [5]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Thread Steel and Hot-Rolled Coil - **Supply and Demand**: Thread steel's apparent demand, production, and inventory decreased last week. Hot-rolled coil inventory decreased but was still above historical levels. Steel mill profit margins dropped, and production cuts may exceed the normal seasonal scale [2]. - **Technical Analysis**: On the daily K-line chart, short-term rapid price increases face resistance from the 60-day moving average and the upper Bollinger Band. The Bollinger Band opening is narrowing, and the medium-term downward trend remains unchanged [2]. - **Operation Suggestion**: Maintain a wait-and-see approach, avoid chasing up or selling down. Wait patiently for price corrections before entering long positions for medium-term trading [2]. - **Data**: Includes various prices (futures, spot, etc.), basis and spreads, production, inventory, and demand data [3]. 3.2 Iron Ore - **Demand**: Last week, the sample steel mill's molten iron production increased slightly, but the output of the five major steel products continued to decline. With the arrival of the consumption off-season, molten iron production is expected to decline, putting pressure on raw material prices [5]. - **Supply**: Global shipments have decreased from their peak, and port inventories are rising, suppressing futures prices. Slow inventory reduction in the steel market also dampens overall market sentiment [5]. - **Technical Analysis**: The futures price of the 01 contract has broken through the middle Bollinger Band but faces resistance from a dense trading area and continues to trade in a relatively high range [5]. - **Operation Suggestion**: Maintain a wait-and-see approach, wait patiently for price corrections before entering long positions for medium-term trading [5]. - **Data**: Covers various prices (futures, spot, etc.), basis and spreads, shipment volumes, freight rates, exchange rates, arrival and departure volumes, and inventory data [5]. 3.3 Industry News - From November 10 - 16, 2025, China's 47-port iron ore arrivals totaled 2369.9 million tons, a decrease of 399.4 million tons from the previous period; 45-port arrivals totaled 2268.9 million tons, a decrease of 472.3 million tons; and northern six-port arrivals totaled 1041.3 million tons, a decrease of 484.5 million tons [7]. - From November 10 - 16, 2025, the global iron ore shipment volume was 3516.4 million tons, an increase of 447.4 million tons from the previous period. The shipment volume from Australia and Brazil was 2908.7 million tons, an increase of 360.1 million tons [8]. - A coal mine in Lvliang Zhongyang area resumed production on November 16 after a 63-day shutdown. It has a production capacity of 1.2 million tons and mainly produces low-sulfur coking coal. It is currently in the commissioning phase and is expected to resume production this week [8]. - Last week, the coking coal online auction failure rate increased. The total listed volume was 1.445 million tons, the成交 volume was 1.039 million tons, and the failure rate was 28.1%, an increase of 16.5 percentage points from the previous period. Auction prices mostly rose, and the daily price fluctuation range increased significantly [8]. - Coking enterprise operating rates continued to decline. The actual production in this period was 3.1782 million tons, a decrease of 0.0015 million tons from the previous period; the capacity utilization rate decreased, and the operating rate was 67.49%, a decrease of 0.03% from the previous period; inventory decreased to 0.3465 million tons, a decrease of 0.001 million tons from the previous period [8]. - The UK is formulating countermeasures as Prime Minister Starmer fails to reach an agreement to mitigate the impact of the EU's proposed steel tariff increase. The EU plans to cut the existing foreign steel tariff-free quota by nearly half and double the tariff on excess quotas to 50% [9].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided in the content 2. Core Views of the Report - Currently, the futures prices of rebar and hot-rolled coils are in a state of low valuation with downward drivers, still facing significant pressure, but the downside space may be quite limited, and it is difficult for unilateral speculation. From a technical perspective, the futures prices are still in a medium-term downward trend, and after short-term narrow-range fluctuations, they are facing a direction choice. As long as the downward trend in the technical aspect is not completely changed, they should be treated as low-level fluctuations [8][74]. - The long-term strategy of going long on the rebar-iron ore ratio can continue to be held, but it may need to endure a long period of low-level fluctuations [8][74]. - For unilateral speculation, it is recommended to maintain a wait-and-see attitude. After the bottom is constructed on the technical side, market expectations improve, and the prices fully reflect the weak demand reality, a good medium-term long opportunity will emerge [7][73]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Main Views - Valuation: Rebar and hot-rolled coils are currently in an obviously undervalued state, and the valuation of the 01 contract of rebar is relatively lower [8][44][74]. - Driver: The market is in a state of weak supply and demand. The downward pressure on prices is mainly caused by two aspects. Firstly, there is high inventory, especially the inventory pressure of hot-rolled coils is greater. Secondly, the decline in consumption, the losses of steel mills, and the relatively longer time that terminal demand stays at a low level may trigger the industry to cut production beyond the seasonal trend, causing a negative feedback loop in iron ore and coke [8][72][74]. - Strategy Suggestion: Unilateral speculation should maintain a wait-and-see attitude; the long-term strategy of going long on the rebar-iron ore ratio can continue to be held [7][8][73][74]. 3.2 Rebar and Hot-Rolled Coil Futures and Spot Market Review - Spot Prices: In the recent week, rebar spot prices rebounded slightly, while hot-rolled coil spot prices showed mixed trends. Recently, rebar spot prices were significantly stronger than hot-rolled coil spot prices [13]. - Basis: The basis of rebar has narrowed, mainly because the futures price increased more than the spot price. The basis of the near-month contract is larger, indicating that the near-month valuation is lower without considering the capital cost. The basis of hot-rolled coils continued to narrow, and the far-month contract has turned to premium [15][18][20]. - Spread: The spread between the near and far months of rebar remained at a relatively low level, and there was no good opportunity to go long on the near-far month spread for now. The near-far month spread of hot-rolled coils basically fluctuated around zero, with no good trading opportunities. The spot coil-rebar spread was low, while the futures coil-rebar spread was in the normal range [23][25][28]. - Ratio: The rebar-iron ore ratio was generally at a low level and may rise in the future, presenting a good long opportunity. The rebar-coke ratio has dropped significantly, and it is expected to continue to decline [31][44]. - Profit: Due to the回调 of coking coal, coke, and iron ore prices, the profit of steel mills has improved, but they are still in a loss state overall. Short-process steel mills are in a loss state whether using off-peak electricity or normal electricity [33][35]. 3.3 Steel Supply and Demand Analysis - Supply: With the arrival of the consumption off-season, steel production generally continued the seasonal downward trend. Although the molten iron production of 247 sample steel mills rebounded last week, it is expected that this rebound will not last long, and the molten iron production of steel mills is likely to continue to decline. Independent electric arc furnace production remained at a relatively high level [47][51][72]. - Demand: Terminal demand has entered the consumption off-season and is in a period when winter storage has not yet started. Demand is expected to put significant pressure on prices. Due to the influence of the leap month this year, the Spring Festival is coming later, meaning that winter storage will come later than before, and terminal demand will stay at a low level for a relatively longer time [57][72]. - Inventory: Currently, social inventory continues to decline, but the total inventory of the five major varieties is at a high level in the same period in recent years. The total inventory of hot-rolled coils is near the record high and significantly higher than the previous same-period levels. The total inventory of steel billets in Tangshan is still increasing, and the inventory of steel billets in major warehouses and ports is also at a high level in the same period in history [62][66][69]. 3.4 Market Outlook and Investment Opportunity Research and Judgment - Market Outlook: In the short term, rebar and hot-rolled coils are in a state of weak supply and demand with large inventory pressure. Before the arrival of winter storage, terminal demand will continue to decline seasonally, and molten iron and steel production will also gradually decline. Iron ore and coke prices may enter a negative feedback loop. Due to the late Spring Festival this year, winter storage will come relatively later, and the market may need to endure a longer period of low demand [72][74]. - Investment Opportunity: Unilateral speculation should maintain a wait-and-see attitude; the long-term strategy of going long on the rebar-iron ore ratio can continue to be held [7][8][73][74].

投资咨询系列报告 山金期货贵金属策略报告 更新时间：2025年11月17日16时33分 一、黄金 报告导读： | 数据类别 | 指标 | 单位 | 最新 | 较上日 | | 较上周/前值 | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 国际价格 | Comex黄金主力合约收盘价 | 美元/盎司 | 4084.40 | -90.10 | -2.16% | 76.60 | 1.91% | | | 伦敦金 | 美元/盎司 | 4071.10 | -124.55 | -2.97% | 77.00 | 1.93% | | 国内价格 | 沪金主力收盘价（上期所） | 元/克 | 929.46 | -23.74 | -2.49% | -6.52 | -0.70% | | | 黄金T+D收盘价（上金所） | 元/克 | 930.22 | -17.76 | -1.87% | -2.80 | -0.30% | | 基差与价差、比价 | 沪金主力-伦敦金 | 元/克 | -1.54 | 2.79 | -65% | -16.85 | -110% | | | 沪金主力基差 ...

投资咨询系列报告 山金期货黑色板块日报 一、螺纹、热卷 更新时间：2025年11月17日08时11分 报告导读： 供需方面，上周的数据显示螺纹表观需求环比回落 ，螺纹产量下降，库存继续回落。热卷的库存环比回落，但明显高于历年同期。由于钢厂毛利大 幅回落，且消费高峰期过去，钢厂减产幅度可能会超过正常季节性的减产规模 ，从而可能会引发阶段性的负反馈循环 。近期煤焦价格也出现了走弱 迹象，铁矿石价格高位回落，钢材成本支撑减弱。从技术上看，在日 K 线图上，螺纹和热卷的期价均已经跌破了下方 10 日均线的支撑，目前下方 有布林带下轨的支撑，短线窄幅震荡之后，面临方向选择。 操作建议： 维持观望，不可追涨杀跌，耐心等待企稳后逢低做多，中线交易。价格处于低位，不建议做空 表1：螺纹、热卷相关数据 数据类别 指标 单位 最新 较上日 较上周 期现货价格 螺纹钢主力合约收盘价 元/吨 3053 7 0.23% 19 0.63% 热轧卷板主力合约收盘价 元/吨 3256 2 0.06% 11 0.34% 螺纹钢现货价格（HRB400E 20mm，上海） 元/吨 3190 -10 -0.31% 0 0 热轧板卷现货价格（Q235 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided in the document. 2. Core Views of the Report - Gold prices are expected to be slightly bullish in the short - term, oscillate at high levels in the medium - term, and rise step - by - step in the long - term. The core logic includes short - term hedging factors (Sino - US talks' negative impact is realized, but geopolitical risks remain; US employment weakens and inflation is moderate, so Fed rate - cut expectations persist), hedging attributes (results of Sino - US economic and trade consultations are announced, and geopolitical risks in regions like Russia - Ukraine and the Middle East remain), monetary attributes (more Fed policymakers are cautious about a December rate cut, but the end of the US government shutdown and economic data recovery may create conditions for a rate cut next month), and commodity attributes (CRB commodity index is weakly oscillating, and RMB appreciation is negative for domestic prices) [1]. - The price trend of gold is the anchor for the price of silver. In terms of capital, CFTC silver net long positions and iShare silver ETF have slightly increased their positions. In terms of inventory, the recent explicit inventory of silver has slightly decreased [5]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Gold - **Market Performance**: Today, precious metals pulled back from high levels. Shanghai gold closed down 0.29%, and Shanghai silver closed down 0.04% [1]. - **Strategy**: Conservative investors should wait and see, while aggressive investors can buy low and sell high. It is recommended to manage positions well and set strict stop - loss and take - profit levels [2]. - **Data Summary**: - **Prices**: Comex gold主力合约收盘价 is $4174.50 per ounce, down $26.90 (-0.64%) from the previous day and up $189.70 (4.76%) from last week; London gold is $4195.65 per ounce, up $58.90 (1.42%) from the previous day and up $209.15 (5.25%) from last week; Shanghai gold主力收盘价 (SHFE) is 953.20 yuan per gram, down 8.02 yuan (-0.83%) from the previous day and up 31.94 yuan (3.47%) from last week; Gold T + D收盘价 (SGE) is 947.98 yuan per gram, down 10.69 yuan (-1.12%) from the previous day and up 30.34 yuan (3.31%) from last week [2]. - **Positions and Inventories**: Comex gold positions are 528,789 lots (100 ounces per lot), unchanged; Shanghai gold主力 (SHFE) positions are 113,597 lots (1 kg per lot), down 10,642 lots (-8.57%) from the previous day and down 23,063 lots (-16.88%) from last week; Gold TD (SGE) positions are 45,964 lots (1 kg per lot), down 5,368 lots (-2.25%) from the previous day and down 21,288 lots (-8.37%) from last week; LBMA inventory is 8,598 tons, unchanged; Comex gold inventory is 1,152 tons, unchanged from the previous day and down 13 tons (-1.08%) from last week; Shanghai gold (SHFE) inventory is 18 tons, up 1.57% from the previous day and up 1.32% from last week [2]. - **Net Positions of Top 10 Members**: The total net long positions of the top 5 members are 66,417.00, an increase of 568.00 (19.11%); the total net short positions of the top 5 members are 13,012.00, a decrease of 44.00 (3.74%) [3]. Silver - **Strategy**: Conservative investors should wait and see, while aggressive investors can buy low and sell high. It is recommended to manage positions well and set strict stop - loss and take - profit levels [6]. - **Data Summary**: - **Prices**: Comex silver主力合约收盘价 is $52.23 per ounce, down $1.00 (-1.88%) from the previous day and up $4.39 (9.17%) from last week; London silver is $53.87 per ounce, up $2.34 (4.53%) from the previous day and up $5.19 (10.65%) from last week; Shanghai silver主力收盘价 (SHFE) is 12,375.00 yuan per kg, down 213.00 yuan (-1.69%) from the previous day and up 891.00 yuan (7.76%) from last week; Silver T + D收盘价 (SGE) is 12,326.00 yuan per kg, down 237.00 yuan (-1.89%) from the previous day and up 846.00 yuan (7.37%) from last week [6]. - **Positions and Inventories**: Comex silver positions are 165,805 lots (5,000 ounces per lot), unchanged; Shanghai silver主力 (SHFE) positions are 4,708,155 lots (1 kg per lot), down 92,040 lots (-1.92%) from the previous day and up 1,025,400 lots (27.84%) from last week; Silver TD (SGE) positions are 4,040,198 lots (1 kg per lot), down 36,092 lots (-0.89%) from the previous day and down 253,820 lots (-5.91%) from last week; LBMA inventory is 26,255 tons, an increase of 1,673 tons (6.81%); Comex silver inventory is 14,813 tons, unchanged from the previous day and down 118 tons (-0.79%) from last week; Shanghai silver (SHFE) inventory is 577 tons, a decrease of 46 tons (-7.41%); The total explicit inventory is 42,467 tons, a decrease of 46 tons (-0.11%) from the previous day and a decrease of 164 tons (-0.39%) from last week [6]. - **Net Positions of Top 10 Members**: The total net long positions of the top 5 members are 112,336.00, an increase of 8,357.00 (14.72%); the total net short positions of the top 5 members are 39,418.00, an increase of 2,773.00 (5.17%) [7]. Fundamental Key Data - **Monetary Attributes**: Federal fund target rate upper limit is 4.00%, down 0.25 from the previous value; discount rate is 4.00%, down 0.25 from the previous value; reserve balance interest rate (IORB) is 3.90%, down 0.25 from the previous value; Fed total assets are $6,631.098 billion, down $608 million (-0.00%) from the previous value; M2 (year - on - year) is 4.49%, an increase of 0.01; 10 - year US Treasury real yield is 2.40%, an increase of 0.03 (1.27%); US dollar index is 99.48, down 0.14 (-0.14%) from the previous day and down 0.72 (-0.72%) from last week; US Treasury yield spread (3 - month to 10 - year) is 0.38, down 0.01 (-2.56%) from the previous day and up 0.05 (13.16%) from last week [8]. - **Other Key Indicators**: US Treasury yield spread (2 - year to 10 - year) is - 0.15, an increase of 0.03 (-16.67%) from the previous day and an increase of 0.06 (-28.57%) from last week; US - EU yield spread (10 - year bond yield) is 1.53, unchanged; US - China yield spread (10 - year bond yield) is 2.84, an increase of 0.00 (0.01%) from the previous day and an increase of 0.02 (0.87%) from last week; CPI (year - on - year) is 3.00, unchanged; CPI (month - on - month) is 0.30, unchanged; core CPI (year - on - year) is 3.00, unchanged; core CPI (month - on - month) is 0.30, unchanged [10]. - **Inflation, Economy, and Other Aspects**: In the US, inflation, economic growth, labor market, real estate market, consumption, industry, trade, and other aspects have corresponding data changes, such as GDP (annualized year - on - year) is 2.00%, down 0.30; GDP (annualized month - on - month) is 3.80, an increase of 4.40; unemployment rate is 4.30%, an increase of 0.10; non - farm payrolls monthly change is 2.20 million, a decrease of 0.57 million; etc [10]. - **Other Attributes**: Geopolitical risk index is 103.52, an increase of 4.85 (4.91%); VIX index is 20.00, an increase of 2.49 (14.22%) from the previous day and an increase of 0.50 (2.56%) from last week; CRB commodity index is 302.35, down 0.31 (-0.10%) from the previous day and up 1.44 (0.48%) from last week; offshore RMB is 7.1105, a decrease of 0.0153 (-0.21%) [11].

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints - The steel industry is facing a complex situation with weakening cost support and potential negative feedback loops due to falling steel mill profits and the end of the consumption peak season. Both steel and iron ore prices are under pressure, but there may be opportunities for long - positions after price stabilization [2][4]. Summary by Directory 1. Threaded Steel and Hot - Rolled Coil - **Supply and Demand**: This week, the apparent demand for threaded steel decreased, production declined, and inventory continued to fall. The inventory of hot - rolled coil increased slightly. Steel mills may cut production more than the normal seasonal scale, potentially triggering a negative feedback loop. Coal, coke, and iron ore prices are weakening, reducing cost support [2]. - **Technical Analysis**: On the daily K - line chart, the futures prices of both threaded steel and hot - rolled coil have fallen below the 10 - day moving average and are currently supported by the lower Bollinger Band [2]. - **Operation Suggestion**: Maintain a wait - and - see approach, avoid chasing up or selling down. Wait patiently for the price to stabilize and then go long for mid - term trading. Do not short when the price is low [2]. - **Data Summary**: - **Prices**: The closing price of the threaded steel main contract was 3046 yuan/ton, up 0.30% from last week; the hot - rolled coil main contract was 3254 yuan/ton, down 0.06% from last week [2]. - **Production**: The national building materials steel mill threaded steel production was 200.00 million tons, down 4.10% from last week; hot - rolled coil production was 313.66 million tons, down 1.41% from last week [2]. - **Inventory**: The five - major varieties of social inventory was 1061.38 million tons, down 1.27% from last week; the threaded steel social inventory was 415.75 million tons, down 2.34% from last week; the hot - rolled coil social inventory was 332.99 million tons, down 0.01% from last week [2]. - **Apparent Demand**: The five - major varieties of apparent demand was 860.61 million tons, down 0.73% from last week; the threaded steel apparent demand was 216.37 million tons, down 0.98% from last week [2]. 2. Iron Ore - **News and Market Impact**: The Simandou Iron Ore has finally started production, which is expected to affect the overall supply. Steel mills are reducing production due to falling profits and the end of the consumption peak season, suppressing raw material prices. Global shipments have declined from the peak, and port inventories are rising, putting pressure on futures prices [4]. - **Technical Analysis**: The futures price of the 01 contract has fallen below the middle Bollinger Band, and there is resistance from the dense trading area above [4]. - **Operation Suggestion**: Maintain a wait - and - see approach, wait patiently for the price to stabilize and then go long [4]. - **Data Summary**: - **Prices**: The settlement price of the DCE iron ore main contract was 772.5 yuan/dry ton, down 0.64% from last week; the SGX iron ore continuous - one settlement price was 102.79 US dollars/dry ton, down 0.78% from last week [4]. - **Supply**: Australian iron ore shipments were 1564.5 million tons, down 4.59% from last week; Brazilian shipments were 606.9 million tons, down 23.09% from last week [4]. - **Inventory**: The port inventory was 14898.83 million tons, up 2.45% from last week; the port trade ore inventory was 9977.79 million tons, up 3.36% from last week [4]. 3. Industry News - **Steel Billet Inventory**: According to Buguwang data, the steel billet inventory in Tangshan area was 119.63 million tons this week, down 1.35% from last week [6]. - **Threaded Steel Data**: As of the week of November 13, threaded steel production, apparent demand, factory inventory, and social inventory all decreased [6]. - **Coking Coal Auction**: On November 13, the coking coal auction in Linfen Puxian market showed a decline [7]. - **Steel Enterprise Data**: In early November 2025, the steel inventory of key steel enterprises increased, and the daily production of crude steel increased while that of steel decreased [7]. - **Coking Plant Profit**: The average profit per ton of coke for 30 independent coking plants was - 34 yuan/ton this week [7].

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints of the Report - Today, precious metals rose significantly, with gold underperforming silver. SHFE gold closed up 1.56%, and SHFE silver closed up 5.48%. The short - term core logic includes that the negative impact of the China - US talks has been realized, but geopolitical risks still exist; the US employment is weakening and inflation is moderate, so the expectation of the Fed's rate cut still remains. It is expected that precious metals will be volatile and bullish in the short term, oscillate at a high level in the medium term, and rise step - by - step in the long term [1]. - The price trend of gold is the anchor for the price of silver. In terms of capital, the net long position of CFTC silver and the iShare silver ETF increased slightly. In terms of inventory, the recent visible inventory of silver decreased slightly [5]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Gold - **Strategy**: Conservative investors should wait and see, while aggressive investors can buy low and sell high. It is recommended to manage positions well and set strict stop - loss and take - profit levels [2]. - **Data Summary**: - **Price**: Comex gold and London gold showed different changes. Domestic SHFE gold and gold T + D both increased. For example, the SHFE gold main contract closed at 935.98 yuan/gram, up 1.60% from the previous day [2]. - **Basis, Spread, and Ratio**: The basis and spread data such as SHFE gold - London gold and the gold - silver ratio changed to varying degrees. For instance, the SHFE gold - London gold basis increased by 194% from the previous day [2]. - **Position and Inventory**: Comex gold, SHFE gold, and gold T + D positions and inventories changed. For example, the SHFE gold main contract position decreased by 9.72% compared with the previous week [2]. - **CFTC and ETF**: The net position of CFTC managed funds and the position of the SPDR gold ETF decreased slightly [2]. - **Top 10 Net Position Ranking of SHFE Futures Companies for Gold**: The net positions of the top 10 futures companies in the long and short positions changed. For example, the long - position net position of the top 10 companies increased by 27.55% [3]. Silver - **Strategy**: Similar to gold, conservative investors should wait and see, and aggressive investors can buy low and sell high. Good position management and strict stop - loss and take - profit are recommended [6]. - **Data Summary**: - **Price**: Comex silver and London silver prices changed slightly, while domestic SHFE silver and silver T + D prices increased significantly. For example, the SHFE silver main contract closed at 12,588 yuan/kg, up 4.27% from the previous day [6]. - **Basis and Spread**: The basis and spread data such as SHFE silver - London silver and the SHFE silver main contract basis changed greatly [6]. - **Position and Inventory**: Positions and inventories of Comex silver, SHFE silver, and silver T + D changed. For example, the SHFE silver main contract position increased by 30.16% compared with the previous week [6]. - **CFTC and ETF**: The net position of CFTC managed funds increased, while the position of the iShare silver ETF decreased slightly [6]. - **Top 10 Net Position Ranking of SHFE Futures Companies for Silver**: The net positions of the top 10 futures companies in the long and short positions changed. For example, the long - position net position of the top 10 companies increased by 7.67% [7]. Fundamental Key Data - **Fed - related Data**: The federal funds target rate upper limit, discount rate, and reserve balance interest rate decreased by 0.25%. The Fed's total assets decreased by 0.00%, and M2 increased by 0.01% year - on - year [8]. - **Bond and Interest Rate Data**: The 10 - year US Treasury real yield increased by 1.27%, the US dollar index decreased by 0.72%, and the US bond spread (3 - month to 10 - year) increased by 27.59% [8]. - **Other Key Indicators**: Various indicators such as the US - EU interest rate spread, US - China interest rate spread, CPI, and economic growth data showed different changes [10]. - **Reserve and Ratio Data**: Central bank gold reserves in China, the US, and the world, IMF foreign exchange reserve ratios, and the ratio of gold to foreign exchange reserves changed to varying degrees [12]. - **Risk - related Indexes**: The geopolitical risk index remained unchanged, the VIX index decreased by 2.15%, the CRB commodity index decreased by 1.43%, and the offshore RMB exchange rate decreased by 0.08% [12].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - In 2026, the macro - economy will consolidate its bottom. It will be a year of weak recovery, featuring export support, stable investment, and weak consumption. Policy will remain positive, with fiscal policy staying active and a low - interest - rate environment continuing. In terms of asset allocation, stocks are preferred over commodities, and commodities over bonds [83]. - The Chinese economy is entering a new cycle from 2026, led by artificial intelligence, with new technologies evolving and being transformed into product advantages through China's industrial chain [84]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Macro - economic Fundamentals - **Industrial Production**: Except for automobiles, the growth rate of major industrial products remains low. The increase in automobile production this year supports the growth of industrial added value. Next year, the growth rate of domestic automobile sales may decline, but the overall automobile industry will be supported by exports, and the growth rate of automobile industrial added value is likely to fall but not decline [6]. - **Fixed - asset Investment**: The decline in fixed - asset investment growth has accelerated, and it turned negative from January to September. In 2026, more powerful policies will be introduced to boost investment, and many projects postponed this year will start construction [9]. - **Consumption**: The growth rate of total retail sales of consumer goods has declined, and consumer confidence is hovering at a low level. The reasons include weak income and income expectations, high household leverage, imperfect social security, and a low proportion of household disposable income in GDP [14]. - **Inflation**: The inflation situation will remain weak for a long time. Downstream commodity consumption is poor, while service consumption such as tourism performs better. PPI faces downward pressure on production material prices, and the overall manufacturing scale keeps industrial product prices under long - term pressure [20]. - **Employment**: Unemployment has seasonally increased with the entry of college graduates into the labor market. The cumulative year - on - year growth of newly - added urban employment has flattened, and creating new jobs is becoming more difficult [26]. - **Manufacturing PMI**: Manufacturing PMI has been continuously weak. In the PMI sub - items, the sub - item of the purchase price of major raw materials is above the boom - bust line, and the sub - item of purchase volume fluctuates with the production sub - item, with a larger fluctuation range. Other sub - items are below the boom - bust line [30]. - **Inventory**: Production is significantly stronger than consumption, finished - product inventory is rising, and downstream demand is weaker [34]. - **Construction and Service Industry PMI**: The PMI of the construction industry and its important sub - items are at a low level in recent years, indicating the industry's downturn [38]. - **Foreign Trade**: The growth rate of imports and exports is better than expected. Exports are resilient, and China's share in global exports is increasing. New "new three items" (robots, artificial intelligence, and innovative drugs) are becoming new drivers of industrial upgrading and foreign trade growth [41][44]. - **Chip Industry**: The effect of chip import substitution has emerged in recent years. The growth rate of chip exports is much higher than that of imports, and a complete Chinese chip industry chain independent of the US is rising. It is expected to become a net exporter in 5 - 10 years [46]. 3.2 Macro - economic Highlights - **Automobile Industry**: Automobile production, sales, and exports will reach new highs this year. Although the growth rate of domestic sales may face pressure due to the withdrawal of subsidies, it may be maintained with the launch of new technologies and models. This year's automobile exports are expected to reach 750 - 800 million vehicles, with a year - on - year growth of about 18%, and the growth rate of overseas exports is expected to remain at a good level next year [51]. - **Industrial Enterprise Profits**: The profit growth rate of industrial enterprises above a designated size has rebounded. From January to August, the cumulative year - on - year growth rate of total profits of industrial enterprises above a designated size turned positive, and the year - on - year growth rate in August was 20%. With the implementation of "anti - involution" policies and interest - rate cuts, enterprise profits are expected to improve [54]. - **Stock Market and Economy**: When the M1 - M2 spread turns positive, PPI may also turn positive, indicating a possible bull market in both stocks and commodities. "Anti - involution" may end the decline of PPI. The growth rate of M1 is basically synchronous with the rise of the stock market [57]. - **Real Estate**: The data reflecting the scale of ongoing real estate projects has returned to the level of 2005, and housing prices are still falling month - on - month. The real estate market is in the process of bottom - building. The new housing start - up area may gradually stabilize, and there is a possibility of a retaliatory rise in housing prices in the future [60]. - **Stock Market and Asset Allocation**: There is still room for "deposit migration". The ratio of the total market value of the stock market to household deposits is low, and the trend of households allocating more assets to the stock market has just begun. A bull market can stimulate economic growth, assist economic transformation, improve the corporate financing environment, relieve debt pressure, and enhance international competitiveness [63][64]. - **Technological Progress and Stock Market**: Technologies such as artificial intelligence and robots are likely to be first applied in China. The chip industry is the last major short - board before China becomes a technological superpower. Technological innovation and manufacturing are the core of the "14th Five - Year Plan", and new technologies will promote productivity and expand industrial chain advantages [65]. 3.3 Policy Outlook for 2026 - **Fiscal Policy**: The government's leverage ratio is relatively low and there is room for further leverage. Loose fiscal policy is expected to last for a long time. Consumption subsidies are likely to continue in some form for 2 - 3 years, and other measures such as increasing the deficit scale and transfer payment intensity will also be taken [69]. - **Monetary Policy**: The 7 - day reverse repurchase rate has remained low for a long time, and the money supply will remain loose with room for further decline in interest rates. The Fed's interest - rate cuts provide space for China's central bank to cut interest rates, and domestic commercial banks have already lowered deposit rates [71][82]. - **Exchange Rate Policy**: The US dollar has opened up a downward space, and bank settlement and sales of foreign exchange have turned into a surplus. Overseas hot money is flowing into China, causing the RMB to face more appreciation pressure than depreciation pressure. The RMB's share in international trade is increasing [77][79]. 3.4 Main Conclusions and Suggestions - **Economic Outlook**: In 2026, the macro - economy will be in a weak recovery. Real estate investment will gradually stabilize, infrastructure investment growth will pick up, and exports will maintain a high growth rate. Policy will remain positive, and consumption will be a lagging variable [83]. - **Economic Cycle**: The Chinese economy is entering a new cycle, with artificial intelligence leading the way, and new technologies being transformed into product advantages [84]. - **Risk Analysis**: In 2026, there may be new Sino - US trade frictions, the risk of the bursting of the US artificial intelligence bubble and its spill - over effects, and the risk of a significant correction in the Chinese stock market due to high valuations [85].