投资咨询系列报告 山金期货贵金属策略报告 更新时间：2026年01月06日16时48分 报告导读： 今日贵金属震荡上行，沪金主力收涨1.27%，沪银主力收涨7.06%，铂金主力收涨6.02%，钯金主力收涨涨5.16%。①核心逻辑， 短期避险方面，贸易战避险消退，地缘异动风险上升；美国就业走弱通胀温和，降息预期支撑仍存。②避险属性方面，美国抓捕马 杜罗震惊世界，地缘异动风险上升。③货币属性方面，尽管美国第三季度经济增长超过预期，但消费者信心降至4月以来的最低水 平。美国11月核心CPI同比上涨2.6%，创下2021年初以来最慢增速，低于市场预期的3%。美国11月就业反弹超预期，失业率升至 四年高位。美联储12月在重重分歧中下调利率，暗示将暂停行动明年或仅降息一次。鲍威尔指出，美联储的利率政策已处于良好 位置，可以应对未来经济走势，但他拒绝就近期是否会再次降息提供指引。目前市场预期美联储26年1月不降息概率维持在80%附 近，下次降息或到4月。美元指数和美债收益率震荡偏弱；④商品属性方面，白银受到供应偏紧支撑。铂金氢能产业铂基催化剂需 求预期强劲。钯金短期需求仍有韧性，长期面临燃油车市场结构性压力。CRB商品指数 ...

表1：螺纹、热卷相关数据 | 数据类别 | 指标 | 单位 | 最新 | | 较上日 | | 较上周 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | 螺纹钢主力合约收盘价 热轧卷板主力合约收盘价 | 元/吨 元/吨 | 3104 3248 | -18 -22 | -0.58% -0.67% | -26 -39 | -0.83% -1.19% | | 期现货价格 | | | | | | | | | | 螺纹钢现货价格（HRB400E 20mm，上海） | 元/吨 | 3290 | -10 | -0.30% | -10 | -0.30% | | | 热轧板卷现货价格（Q235 4.75mm，上海） | 元/吨 | 3250 | -20 | -0.61% | -30 | -0.91% | | | 螺纹钢主力基差 | 元/吨 | 186 | | 8 | | 16 | | | 热轧卷板主力基差 | 元/吨 | 2 | | 2 | | 9 | | | 螺纹钢期货10-1价差 | 元/吨 | 58 | | -4 | | -12 | | | 热轧卷板期货10-1 ...

投资咨询系列报告 山金期货贵金属策略报告 更新时间：2026年01月05日16时51分 报告导读： 今日贵金属高位分化，沪金主力收涨1.40%，沪银主力收涨1.16%，铂金主力收涨6.48%，钯金主力收涨涨8.88%。①核心逻辑， 短期避险方面，贸易战避险消退，地缘异动风险上升；美国就业走弱通胀温和，降息预期支撑仍存。②避险属性方面，美国抓捕马 杜罗震惊世界，地缘异动风险上升。③货币属性方面，尽管美国第三季度经济增长超过预期，但消费者信心降至4月以来的最低水 平。美国11月核心CPI同比上涨2.6%，创下2021年初以来最慢增速，低于市场预期的3%。美国11月就业反弹超预期，失业率升至 四年高位。美联储12月在重重分歧中下调利率，暗示将暂停行动明年或仅降息一次。鲍威尔指出，美联储的利率政策已处于良好 位置，可以应对未来经济走势，但他拒绝就近期是否会再次降息提供指引。目前市场预期美联储26年1月不降息概率维持在80%附 近，下次降息或到4月。美元指数和美债收益率震荡偏强；④商品属性方面，白银受到供应偏紧支撑。铂金氢能产业铂基催化剂需 求预期强劲。钯金短期需求仍有韧性，长期面临燃油车市场结构性压力。CRB商品指数 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided regarding the report industry investment rating. 2. Core Viewpoints - For the rebar and hot-rolled coil sector, in the off - season of consumption, with both supply and demand being weak and winter storage yet to come, and enhanced macro - confidence, the futures prices are expected to maintain a volatile upward trend. The 05 contract briefly fell below the oscillation range and then rebounded rapidly, but has not yet broken out of the recent oscillation range. It is recommended to hold long positions and conduct mid - term trading [2]. - For the iron ore sector, although the current market is in the off - season of consumption, iron ore's 05 contract has broken through the high point in September and may start a mid - term upward trend. It is also recommended to hold long positions and conduct mid - term trading [4]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Rebar and Hot - Rolled Coil - **Supply and demand**: Last week, the production of rebar and hot - rolled coil increased, and the total production of the five major varieties rose month - on - month. The overall inventory continued to decline. The apparent demand for rebar decreased, while that for hot - rolled coil continued to rise. Due to the significant decline in steel mills' gross profit and the off - season of consumption, steel mills' production may continue to decline. The recent sharp rebound of coking coal and coke futures prices has increased the cost support for the market [2]. - **Technical analysis**: The 05 contract briefly fell below the oscillation range and then rebounded rapidly on the daily K - line chart but has not yet broken out of the recent oscillation range [2]. - **Data details**: The closing price of the rebar and hot - rolled coil futures contracts, spot prices, basis, spreads, prices of medium - thick plates, wire rods, and cold - rolled coils, steel billet and scrap steel prices, steel mill furnace production and profit conditions, production, inventory, spot market transactions, apparent demand, and futures warehouse receipts all have corresponding data changes [2]. Iron Ore - **Demand**: Last week, the overall production of the five major steel products increased, and the apparent demand rose month - on - month. The market is in the off - season, and iron - making water production is likely to decline seasonally. Steel mills' production cuts suppress raw material prices. The pre - holiday restocking demand will come later this year due to the late Spring Festival [4]. - **Supply**: Global shipments are still at a high level, and the continuous increase in port inventory suppresses futures prices [4]. - **Technical analysis**: The 05 contract has broken through the high point in September and may start a mid - term upward trend [4]. - **Data details**: Include spot and futures prices, basis and futures monthly spreads, variety spreads, overseas shipments, shipping costs and exchange rates, iron ore arrival and port - clearance volumes, inventory, domestic mine production, and futures warehouse receipts [5]. Industry News - Starting from January 1, 2026, the EU's Carbon Border Adjustment Mechanism (CBAM) has officially entered the charging period, initially covering six product categories such as steel, cement, aluminum, fertilizers, electricity, and hydrogen, and planning to expand to about 180 steel and aluminum - intensive downstream products by 2028 [7]. - The steel industry PMI in December 2025 was 46.3%, a month - on - month decrease of 1.7 percentage points, indicating a continued tightening of the industry's operation [8]. - Dalian Commodity Exchange announced that coking coal options will be listed for trading starting from January 16, 2026 [8]. - The fourth round of coke price cuts has been implemented [8]. - There are also various inventory data and production data of steel and other products from different statistical sources [8][9][10].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the document 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - In 2026, China's domestic macro - economy will face challenges and opportunities. Although investment and consumption have pressure, there are many bright spots such as export resilience, industrial structure optimization, and policy support. The fiscal and monetary policies will remain expansionary. Overseas, the global economy will maintain moderate growth with intensified differentiation, and each major economy has its own characteristics and risks [7][81][141] - The recommended asset allocation strategy for 2026 is stocks > commodities > bonds [86] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 China's Domestic Macroeconomy 3.1.1 2025 China's Macroeconomic Situation Review - In 2025, China's economy achieved a GDP growth of about 5% with new and old growth drivers changing. Consumption and exports supported the economy, but investment, especially real - estate investment, was a drag. High - tech manufacturing and green products showed strong growth [4][5] 3.1.2 2026 Domestic Macroeconomic Challenges and Highlights - **Fixed - asset investment**: It still faces great pressure. The growth rate of fixed - asset investment has declined rapidly since Q2 2025, and real - estate investment has reached a record low. However, the decline rate of real - estate market indicators has slowed down [7][9][12] - **Consumption**: It is expected to be weakly stable. With policy support, consumption will grow weakly, but factors such as low consumer confidence and income constraints still exist. The growth rate of social consumer goods retail sales is expected to be in the range of 3% - 4% [20][23][24] - **Export**: It remains resilient. In 2025, China's export share in the world reached a record high. In 2026, although there are challenges, exports are expected to grow by about 5% due to market diversification and industrial chain advantages [27][34][82] - **Industrial added value**: It is generally stable with progress. In 2025, the added value of large - scale industries increased by about 5.9%. In 2026, the industrial structure will continue to optimize, and high - tech and equipment manufacturing will be the core driving forces [35][39] - **CPI and PPI**: CPI will moderately rebound, and PPI's decline will narrow. However, due to insufficient demand, the inflation rebound will be moderate [42][45][49] - **Manufacturing PMI**: It is expected to improve. In 2025, manufacturing PMI showed resilience. In 2026, with policy support, market demand is expected to recover [50][52] - **Employment**: The situation is still severe. In 2025, there were structural contradictions in the employment market. In 2026, about 12 million new urban jobs are expected, and policies will promote high - quality employment [55][56] - **Other highlights**: The automobile market has new opportunities; the M1 - M2 gap is expected to narrow further; the RMB has appreciation pressure; there are signs of "deposit relocation" [58][60][63] 3.1.3 Fiscal and Monetary Policies - **Fiscal policy**: It will continue to be more proactive in 2026, with an emphasis on expanding the scale of fiscal expenditure and improving efficiency. The fiscal deficit rate is expected to remain at about 4% [70][74][75] - **Monetary policy**: It will maintain a "moderately loose" tone. There is still room for RRR cuts and interest rate cuts, and more attention will be paid to the synergy between fiscal and monetary policies [77] 3.1.4 2026 Macroeconomic Outlook - Fixed - asset investment growth is expected to be about 1.5%. Manufacturing investment will decline slowly, infrastructure investment will grow by about 5%, and real - estate investment will still be a drag [81] - Consumption will continue to bottom out, with the growth rate of social consumer goods retail sales in the range of 3% - 4% [81] - Exports are expected to grow by about 5%, and the trade surplus will remain above $1 trillion [82] - The CPI growth rate is expected to be around 0.5% - 1%, and it is difficult for PPI to turn into large - scale positive growth [82] 3.1.5 2026 Asset Allocation Strategy - Stocks > Commodities > Bonds. Stocks or stock index futures long positions can be held; commodities such as precious metals will remain strong, and the bull market may spread; bonds are recommended to be on the sidelines [85][86] 3.2 Overseas Macroeconomy 3.2.1 2025 Overseas Macroeconomic Situation Review - In 2025, the global economy grew moderately with differentiation. Developed economies grew weakly, while emerging markets became the main growth engine. AI and green energy investment became new growth drivers [87][88] 3.2.2 United States - In 2026, the US economy will grow moderately, inflation is expected to decline slightly, and employment will be weakly stable. However, it faces risks such as tariff policies, employment market problems, inflation resilience, and debt pressure [91][92][93] - The Fed will move towards a "neutral interest rate", and the government will maintain an "expansionary fiscal" policy, but policy coordination may be insufficient [100][101] 3.2.3 Eurozone - In 2026, the Eurozone economy will grow moderately, inflation will decline, and employment will improve slightly. It will be driven by domestic demand improvement, AI investment, and fiscal stimulus, but faces risks such as trade friction, geopolitics, and internal structural contradictions [106][107][112] - The European Central Bank will maintain a neutral interest rate, and the EU will promote fiscal coordination [121] 3.2.4 Japan - In 2026, Japan's economy will have a mild recovery, inflation will be stable, policies will tighten, and structural transformation will occur. It will face challenges such as weak domestic and external demand, high debt, and global trade uncertainty [125][126][135] - Japan will adopt a combination of "gradually tightening monetary policy + active fiscal policy" [136][139] 3.2.5 2026 Overseas Macroeconomic Outlook - In 2026, the global economy will maintain moderate growth with intensified differentiation. Emerging markets will grow at 4.0%, and developed economies at 1.6%. Risks such as trade protectionism, geopolitics, debt risks, and climate crises are intertwined [141]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided in the content. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - For the rebar and hot - rolled coil sector, the market is in a state of weak supply and demand during the off - season. With steel mill profits dropping and the consumption peak passing, steel mill output is expected to decline slowly. The recent sharp rebound in coking coal prices has increased cost support for the futures market. The futures prices are expected to fluctuate upwards. Technically, the 05 contract of the rebar and hot - rolled coil has not broken out of the recent trading range [2]. - For the iron ore sector, the Ministry of Finance's statement has boosted market confidence. However, the overall output and apparent demand of the five major steel products have continued to decline week - on - week. As the off - season approaches, pig iron output is likely to decline seasonally. The high global shipments and rising port inventories are putting pressure on futures prices. Technically, the 05 contract has broken through the September high and may start a mid - term upward trend [4]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Rebar and Hot - Rolled Coil Supply - Demand Situation - Last week, the output of rebar and hot - rolled coil increased, while the total output of the five major varieties decreased week - on - week. The overall inventory continued to decline. The apparent demand for rebar decreased, while that for hot - rolled coil increased. The overall apparent demand for the five major varieties decreased. The market remains in a state of weak supply and demand [2]. Price and Spread Data - Rebar and hot - rolled coil futures and spot prices showed different changes. For example, the rebar steel main contract price increased slightly, while the hot - rolled coil main contract price decreased slightly. The basis and spread of futures contracts also changed, such as the rebar steel main basis decreased, while the hot - rolled coil main basis increased [2]. Production and Inventory Data - The blast furnace operating rate of 247 steel mills decreased slightly, and the daily average pig iron output increased slightly. The proportion of profitable steel mills increased. The output of rebar and hot - rolled coil increased. The social and steel mill inventories of the five major varieties decreased, except for the rebar steel mill inventory which increased slightly. The steel billet inventory in the Tangshan area increased [2]. Apparent Demand and Transaction Data - The apparent demand for the five major varieties decreased slightly. The national construction steel trading volume and the wire and screw terminal procurement volume decreased [2]. Operation Suggestion - Hold long positions and conduct mid - term trading [2]. Iron Ore Market Environment - The Ministry of Finance's statement has boosted market confidence. However, the demand side is weakening as the off - season approaches, and the supply side has high global shipments and rising port inventories [4]. Price and Spread Data - Iron ore spot and futures prices showed different changes. For example, the DCE iron ore main contract settlement price decreased slightly, while the Platts 62% index increased slightly. The basis and spread of futures contracts also changed [5]. Supply - Related Data - The overseas iron ore shipments from Australia and Brazil increased. The iron ore arrival volume at northern six ports increased, and the daily average port clearance volume increased slightly. The port inventory, port trade ore inventory, and the sinter powder inventory of 64 sample steel mills all increased [5]. Production Data - The iron concentrate powder output of 186 national sample mines decreased [5]. Operation Suggestion - Hold long positions and conduct mid - term trading [4]. Industry News - India has imposed a three - year import tariff on some steel products, with rates between 11% and 12%, aiming to prevent the influx of low - cost Chinese steel [7]. - The total inventory of imported iron ore at 47 ports in China increased by 246.21 tons compared to last Monday. The port inventory continued to accumulate [7]. - From December 22 to December 28, 2025, the total iron ore inventory at seven major ports in Australia and Brazil decreased by 122.5 tons, reaching the lowest level in the fourth quarter of this year [7]. - According to the CISA, the floating value of the coking coal long - term agreement coal - steel linkage in December 2025 decreased by 55 yuan/ton compared to November 2025, a decline of 3.6% [8]. - There are 36 coal mines in Anshun City, with a total designed production capacity of 1488 tons/year. The production status of these mines varies [8].

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content Core Viewpoints of the Report - For the rebar and hot-rolled coil sector, in the off - season of consumption with both supply and demand being weak and winter storage yet to come, and with enhanced macro - level confidence, the futures prices are expected to maintain a volatile upward trend. For the iron ore sector, although there are factors suppressing prices such as falling steel output and rising port inventories, the 05 contract has broken through the September high and may start a mid - level upward trend. The operation suggestion for both sectors is to hold long positions for mid - term trading [2][4] Summary by Relevant Catalogs Rebar and Hot - Rolled Coil - **Supply and Demand**: Last week, the output of rebar and hot - rolled coil increased, while the total output of the five major varieties decreased. The overall inventory continued to decline, the apparent demand for rebar decreased, that for hot - rolled coil increased, and the overall apparent demand for the five major varieties decreased. The market remains in a state of weak supply and demand. Due to the significant decline in steel mill profits and the end of the consumption peak, steel mill output is expected to continue to decline slowly [2] - **Cost Support**: In recent days, coal and coke prices have rebounded sharply, raising the cost support for the futures market [2] - **Technical Analysis**: On the daily K - line chart, the 05 contract briefly fell below the oscillation range and then rebounded quickly, currently not breaking out of the recent oscillation range or forming a downward breakthrough [2] - **Operation Suggestion**: Hold long positions for mid - term trading [2] - **Data Details**: Various data on prices, basis, spreads, production, inventory, and apparent demand are provided. For example, the closing price of the rebar main contract is 3130 yuan/ton, up 0.38% from the previous day; the total social inventory of the five major varieties is 872.56 million tons, down 3.74% from last week [2] Iron Ore - **Market Confidence**: The Ministry of Finance's statement to ensure necessary spending in 2026, boost consumption, and expand effective investment has boosted market confidence [4] - **Supply and Demand**: The overall output and apparent demand of the five major steel products continued to decline last week. With the arrival of the off - season, iron - water output is likely to decline seasonally. The late arrival of the pre - holiday restocking demand this year and the high global shipments, along with rising port inventories, put pressure on futures prices [4] - **Technical Analysis**: The 05 contract has broken through the September high and may start a mid - level upward trend [4] - **Operation Suggestion**: Hold long positions for mid - term trading [4] - **Data Details**: Data on spot and futures prices, basis, spreads, shipments, freight rates, inventories, etc. are presented. For example, the settlement price of the DCE iron ore main contract is 796.5 yuan/dry ton, up 1.72% from the previous day; the total port inventory is 15858.66 million tons, up 2.23% from last week [5] Industry News - On December 29, some steel mills in Hebei lowered the price of wet - quenched coke by 50 yuan/ton and dry - quenched coke by 55 yuan/ton, effective from 0:00 on January 1, 2026, starting the fourth round of coke price cuts [7] - From December 22 to December 28, 2025, the global iron ore shipments totaled 3677.1 million tons, a month - on - month increase of 212.6 million tons. The total shipments from Australia and Brazil were 3059.6 million tons, a month - on - month increase of 244.8 million tons [7] - From December 22 to December 28, 2025, the total iron ore arrivals at 47 ports in China were 2727.8 million tons, a month - on - month decrease of 62.4 million tons; at 45 ports, 2601.4 million tons, a month - on - month decrease of 45.3 million tons; at six northern ports, 1330.6 million tons, a month - on - month increase of 74.2 million tons [7]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the report 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - **For the steel sector**: The market is currently in a state of weak supply and demand. Steel mill production is expected to continue to decline slowly due to a significant drop in mill profit margins and the end of the consumption peak. Although coal and coke prices have rebounded recently, providing some cost support, winter storage is still some time away. With enhanced macro - confidence, steel futures prices are expected to maintain a volatile upward trend [2]. - **For the iron ore sector**: Near the end of the year, the market is filled with strong wait - and - see sentiment. Domestic coal mines are reducing production, while Mongolian coal imports are at a high level. As downstream winter storage expectations increase, market sentiment has improved. The iron ore futures price has a relatively large basis for support, and the 05 contract is expected to form a phased bottom [4]. 3. Summary of Each Section 3.1 Threaded Rods and Hot - Rolled Coils - **Supply and demand**: This week's data shows that the production of threaded rods and hot - rolled coils has increased, while the total production of the five major steel products has decreased. Overall inventory continues to decline. The apparent demand for threaded rods has decreased, while that of hot - rolled coils has increased, but the overall apparent demand for the five major products has decreased. The market remains in a state of weak supply and demand [2]. - **Price data**: The closing price of the threaded rod futures main contract is 3,118 yuan/ton, down 0.29% from the previous day and 0.03% from last week; the closing price of the hot - rolled coil futures main contract is 3,283 yuan/ton, up 0.09% from the previous day and 0.43% from last week. Spot prices of both have generally declined [2]. - **Operation suggestions**: Hold long positions and conduct mid - term trades [2]. 3.2 Iron Ore - **Market situation**: Near the end of the year, the domestic coal market has weak supply and demand. The import of Mongolian coal is high, and downstream procurement is mainly for rigid demand. With the strengthening of winter storage expectations, market sentiment has improved [4]. - **Price data**: The settlement price of the DCE iron ore main contract is 783 yuan/dry ton, unchanged from the previous day and up 0.38% from last week; the settlement price of the SGX iron ore continuous contract is 104.67 US dollars/dry ton, up 0.60% from the previous day and 0.98% from last week [5]. - **Operation suggestions**: Hold long positions and conduct mid - term trades [4]. 3.3 Industry News - The National Development and Reform Commission emphasizes the importance of balancing supply and demand and optimizing the structure in the raw materials industry such as steel and petrochemicals during the "15th Five - Year Plan" period, and will continue to regulate crude steel production [7]. - According to Mysteel, the blast furnace operating rate of 247 steel mills is 78.32%, a decrease of 0.15 percentage points from last week; the daily average pig iron output is 2.2658 million tons, an increase of 0.03 million tons from last week [7]. - According to Mysteel, the total inventory of imported iron ore at 45 ports is 158.5866 million tons, an increase of 3.4603 million tons from the previous week; the daily average port clearance volume is 3.1506 million tons, an increase of 0.0161 million tons [7]. - According to Gangyin E - commerce, the total urban inventory this week is 7.0622 million tons, a decrease of 394,300 tons (- 5.29%) from last week; the total inventory of construction steel is 3.1163 million tons, a decrease of 277,000 tons (- 8.16%) from last week [7]. - According to Clarkson Research, from January to November this year, South Korea received 10.03 million compensated gross tons (CGT, 223 ships) of new ship orders, accounting for 22% of the global market. Its shipbuilding industry's annual market share is expected to rebound to over 20% [8].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - In 2025, the precious metals market witnessed a spectacular bull market driven by multiple factors such as the evolution of the global monetary system, geopolitical risks, and supply - demand imbalances. In 2026, the precious metals market will be jointly driven by macro - financial attributes and industrial supply - demand fundamentals, with significant differentiation among varieties [4][97]. - The safe - haven attribute of precious metals is shifting from the traditional model to hedging against sovereign credit risks. The currency attribute is affected by factors like inflation, employment, and central bank monetary policies. The commodity attribute is characterized by structural changes in supply and demand for different precious metals [19][27][68]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Market Review - In 2025, all four major precious metals (gold, silver, platinum, and palladium) soared. Gold continued its bull market, silver and platinum doubled in value, and the precious metals sector became the most outstanding asset class. The market's rise was phased, with gold leading in Q1, silver emerging in Q2, and platinum and palladium surging in Q3 and Q4 [4]. - Gold reached a record high of over $4500 per ounce, with a nearly 70% annual increase. Silver was the star performer, rising over 140%. Platinum and palladium also had significant gains, with platinum up about 160% and palladium over 100% [8][10][14][17]. 3.2 Evolution Logic of the Safe - Haven Attribute - The safe - haven function of precious metals is shifting from traditional geopolitical and economic recession hedging to hedging against the sustainability of sovereign currency credit, especially the US dollar. This is due to the weakening of the US dollar credit and the multi - polarization reconstruction of the global monetary system [19]. - Different precious metals show different safe - haven attributes. Gold is most directly related to sovereign credit concerns, while silver reflects both safe - haven sentiment and industrial cycle changes, and platinum and palladium are more closely related to specific industry trends [21]. - The US debt situation, policy uncertainty, and the potential for a significant correction in the US stock market may increase the safe - haven value of precious metals. However, if geopolitical tensions ease or AI technology boosts productivity, the safe - haven attribute may weaken [23][25][26]. 3.3 Evolution Logic of the Currency Attribute - In 2026, global inflation is expected to continue its moderate decline, but there are significant regional differences. US inflation remains sticky, with a complex "U - shaped" or wave - like downward trend, while the eurozone's inflation problem is basically resolved [27][33][36]. - The US employment market is expected to remain weak in 2026, with low job growth and a rising unemployment rate. This will put pressure on the Fed's decision - making [41][42]. - The Fed is expected to cut interest rates in 2026, but the pace will be extremely slow, and the first cut may be later than market expectations. The difference in interest - rate cut expectations between the Fed and non - US central banks will affect the US dollar index and precious metals prices [52][59][60]. 3.4 Evolution Logic of the Commodity Attribute - In 2026, gold demand is expected to be driven by strategic allocation, with official and institutional investors playing a key role. Supply is facing long - term structural constraints, such as limited growth in mining and reduced elasticity in recycling [68][70]. - The silver market has been in a supply shortage for five consecutive years, and the gap is expected to widen in 2026. Supply growth is highly inelastic, while demand is driven by industrial needs and investment [73][74][75]. - The platinum market is expected to reach a tight balance in 2026, but the underlying support is fragile. Any unexpected supply disruption or demand surge may break the balance [79]. - The palladium market is expected to shift from a supply shortage to a surplus in 2026, driven by the decline in automotive demand due to electrification and a marginal increase in supply [80][81]. 3.5 Dynamic Combination Analysis of Fundamental and Technical Aspects - London gold has been in a long - term upward trend. It is expected to continue rising until the Fed hints at the end of interest - rate cuts in mid - 2026. Attention should be paid to the pressure at $4830 - 5000 and the support at $4000 [84][85]. - London silver is expected to have high volatility. It is recommended to focus on the pressure at $100 - 120 and the support at $58 [88][89]. - London platinum has entered a new cycle. Pay attention to the pressure at $3000 - 3300 and the support at $1760 [91]. - London palladium is in a long - term re - balancing phase. Focus on the pressure at $2080 - 2480 and the support at $1480 [95]. 3.6 Future Market Direction from the Perspective of Long - Short Game - In 2026, the precious metals market will continue to be strong, but there will be significant differentiation among varieties. Gold will be the most stable, silver will have high price elasticity, platinum has great potential, and palladium is expected to be the weakest [97]. 3.7 Overview of the Domestic Precious Metals Industry Chain - In the first three quarters of 2025, domestic gold production increased, with both domestic and imported raw materials contributing. Gold consumption decreased, but there were differences among different product categories. China has been increasing its gold reserves for strategic reasons [98][100][102]. - Major domestic gold enterprises have different production plans and characteristics. For example, Zijin Mining is the largest producer with a high proportion of overseas output, and Shandong Gold has rich resource reserves in the Jiaodong gold belt [103].

Report Investment Rating - Not provided Core Viewpoints - The black market is in a state of weak supply and demand during the off - season. The futures prices of rebar and hot - rolled coils are expected to fluctuate upwards, and the iron ore 05 contract remains in a wide - range high - level oscillation. It is recommended to hold long positions for mid - term trading [2][3] Summary by Directory 1. Rebar and Hot - Rolled Coils - **Supply and demand**: This week, rebar and hot - rolled coil production increased, the total output of five major varieties decreased, and overall inventory continued to decline. Rebar's apparent demand decreased, while hot - rolled coil's increased, but the overall apparent demand of the five major varieties declined. Due to the significant decline in steel mill profits and the end of the consumption peak, steel mill production is expected to continue to decline slowly [2] - **Cost support**: Recently, coal and coke prices have rebounded significantly, raising the cost support for the futures market [2] - **Technical analysis**: On the daily K - line chart, the 05 contract briefly fell below the oscillation range and then rebounded quickly. It has not broken out of the recent oscillation range or formed a downward breakthrough [2] - **Operation suggestion**: Hold long positions and conduct mid - term trading [2] - **Data details**: - **Prices**: Rebar and hot - rolled coil futures and spot prices showed different changes; for example, the rebar main contract closing price was 3127 yuan/ton, down 9 yuan (- 0.29%) from the previous day and up 2 yuan (0.06%) from last week [2] - **Production**: The national building materials steel mill rebar production was 181.68 million tons, up 2.90 million tons (1.62%) from last week; hot - rolled coil production was 291.91 million tons, down 16.80 million tons (- 5.44%) [2] - **Inventory**: The social inventory of five major varieties was 872.56 million tons, down 33.91 million tons (- 3.74%) from last week [2] 2. Iron Ore - **Demand**: Last week, the overall output and apparent demand of five major steel products continued to decline. With the arrival of the consumption off - season, molten iron production is likely to continue to decline seasonally. Steel mill production cuts suppress raw material prices. The pre - holiday restocking demand will come later this year [3] - **Supply**: Global shipments remain at a high level, and the continuous increase in port inventory suppresses the futures price. The market has fully digested the building steel production license system and the inclusion of steel products in export license management [3] - **Technical analysis**: The 05 contract has not broken out of the wide - range high - level oscillation [3] - **Operation suggestion**: Hold long positions and conduct mid - term trading [3] - **Data details**: - **Prices**: The DCE iron ore main contract settlement price was 778.5 yuan/dry ton, down 1.0 yuan (- 0.13%) from the previous day and up 1.0 yuan (0.13%) from last week [4] - **Shipments**: Australian iron ore shipments were 1703.9 million tons, down 60.2 million tons (- 3.41%) from last week; Brazilian shipments were 747.6 million tons, down 71.9 million tons (- 8.77%) [4] - **Inventory**: Port inventory totaled 15512.63 million tons, up 81.21 million tons (0.53%) from last week [4] 3. Industry News - Dalian Commodity Exchange will adjust the daily price limit range of coke and coking coal futures contracts to 10% starting from the settlement on December 30, 2025, while keeping the trading margin level unchanged [6] - The National Development and Reform Commission emphasizes the need to strengthen coal supply and promote the construction of strategic reserves [6] - Mysteel research shows that the average profit per ton of coke for 30 independent coking plants is - 18 yuan/ton [6] - As of the week of December 25, rebar production increased for two consecutive weeks, factory inventory increased, social inventory decreased for the eleventh consecutive week, and apparent demand decreased [6] - The capacity utilization rate of 523 coking coal mine samples decreased by 2.4% to 84.2% this week [7] - As of December 25, 2025, the total inventory of national float glass sample enterprises increased by 0.11% month - on - month, and the total inventory of domestic soda ash manufacturers decreased [7] - The chairman of the Japan Iron and Steel Federation believes that China's steel product export license requirements cannot effectively suppress steel exports or boost steel prices [8]