1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No industry investment rating provided in the report 2. Core Views - Gold is expected to be weak in the short term, silver strong, high - level volatility in the medium term, and a stepped upward trend in the long term. The strategy is for conservative investors to wait and for aggressive investors to buy low and sell high. It is recommended to manage positions well and set strict stop - loss and take - profit levels [3] - The price of silver is expected to show a short - term weakening trend, and the strategy is the same as that for gold [3][8] 3. Summary by Section 3.1 Gold - Today, gold is weak and silver is strong. The Shanghai gold main contract closed down 1%, and the Shanghai silver main contract closed down 0.2% [3] - The core logic is that in the short term, the risk of hedging has eased in the new stage of the trade war, but the risks of economic recession and geopolitical fluctuations still remain. The risk of stagflation in the US economy has increased, and strong employment has suppressed expectations of interest - rate cuts [3] - In terms of hedging attributes, Trump wrote to 14 countries notifying new tariffs, and close allies Japan and South Korea are subject to a 25% tariff [3] - In terms of monetary attributes, the Fed paper shows that there is still a possibility that interest rates will fall to near - zero levels. Strong overall US employment growth has ruled out the possibility of the Fed cutting interest rates in the near term. In June, non - farm payrolls increased by 147,000, higher than the estimated 110,000, but nearly half of the non - farm employment growth came from the government sector, and the increase in private - sector jobs was the smallest in eight months. The market currently expects the next Fed rate cut to be in September 2025, and the expected total rate - cut space in 2025 has fallen back to around 50 basis points [3] - In terms of commodity attributes, the investment demand for gold offsets the decline in jewelry demand, while the expected industrial demand for silver is under pressure [3] 3.2 Silver - Gold price trends anchor silver prices. In terms of capital, CFTC silver net long positions and iShare silver ETFs have reduced positions again. In terms of inventory, the short - term visible inventory of silver has decreased slightly [7][8] 3.3 Fundamental Key Data - Federal funds target rate upper limit: 4.50%, discount rate: 4.50%, reserve balance rate: 4.40%, total Fed assets: $6,710.364 billion, M2 year - on - year: 4.50% [10] - Ten - year US Treasury real yield: 2.59%, US dollar index: 97.51, US Treasury yield spread (3 - month to 10 - year): 0.52, US Treasury yield spread (2 - year to 10 - year): 0, US - EU Treasury yield spread (10 - year): 1.85, US - China Treasury yield spread (10 - year): 3.29 [10][13] - CPI year - on - year: 2.40%, CPI month - on - month: 0.20%, core CPI year - on - year: 2.80%, core CPI month - on - month: 0.20% [13] - US GDP annualized year - on - year: 1.90%, unemployment rate: 4.10%, non - farm payrolls monthly change: 147,000, labor participation rate: 62.60%, average hourly wage growth rate: 3.70% [13] - US labor market weekly working hours: 34.20 hours, ADP employment: - 33,000, initial jobless claims: 233,000, job vacancies: 7.604 million, Challenger corporate layoffs: 48,000 [13] - NAHB housing market index: 32.00, existing home sales: 4.03 million units, new home sales: 560,000 units, new home starts: 1.152 million units [13] - Retail sales year - on - year: 4.71%, retail sales month - on - month: - 0.22%, personal consumption expenditure year - on - year: 4.55%, personal consumption expenditure month - on - month: - 0.14% [13] - US exports year - on - year: - 34.52%, exports month - on - month: - 12.73%, imports year - on - year: - 18.13%, imports month - on - month: - 13.99%, trade balance: - $71.5 billion [13] - ISM manufacturing PMI: 49.00, ISM services PMI: 50.80, Markit manufacturing PMI: 0.00, Markit services PMI: 0.00 [13] - Central bank gold reserves: China 2,298.55 tons, US 8,133.46 tons, world total 36,250.15 tons [14] - Global gold/reserves: 22.18%, China gold/reserves: 6.78%, US gold/reserves: 78.64% [14] - Geopolitical risk index: 132.88, up 126.93% from the previous day and 23.60% from last week [14] 4. Trading Strategies - Conservative investors are advised to wait and see, while aggressive investors are advised to buy low and sell high. It is recommended to manage positions well and set strict stop - loss and take - profit levels [3][8]

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The price increase of black - series commodities may not be sustainable as the main goal of the recent Central Financial and Economic Commission meeting is anti - involution in downstream manufacturing sectors rather than supply - side reform in the upstream of black and building materials industries. The current real estate market is still bottoming out, and the black - series market is trading on weak reality and strong expectations [2]. - For iron ore, with the end of the downstream consumption peak and steel mill production restrictions, iron ore output is expected to decline further. Although it may maintain a slightly stronger volatile trend in the short term, it is in a long - term downward cycle [6]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs I. Threaded Bars and Hot - Rolled Coils - **Market Analysis**: The market misinterpreted the Central Financial and Economic Commission meeting as a signal for a new round of supply - side reform in the black - series industry. The economic data in May was slightly below expectations, and the real estate market is still in the bottoming process. The supply - demand situation shows weak supply and demand, and with the arrival of hot weather, demand will weaken further and inventory is expected to rise slightly. Technically, there is significant resistance above the futures price [2]. - **Operation Suggestions**: Aggressive investors can try short - term long positions and take profits in time when the price rises. The medium - term strategy is to wait patiently for the top signal and then short at high prices [3]. - **Data Highlights**: The closing price of the threaded bar main contract is 3063 yuan/ton, up 2.00% from last week; the closing price of the hot - rolled coil main contract is 3191 yuan/ton, up 1.75% from last week. The national building materials steel mill threaded bar output is 221.08 tons, up 1.49% from last week; the hot - rolled coil output is 328.14 tons, up 0.28% from last week [3]. II. Iron Ore - **Market Analysis**: The profitability of steel mills is acceptable, but iron ore output is expected to decline further due to the end of the consumption peak and production restrictions. The supply is at a relatively high level, and the port inventory decline rate is slowing down, which exerts pressure on the futures price. In the short term, it may maintain a slightly stronger volatile trend, but there is significant resistance above [6]. - **Operation Suggestions**: Aggressive investors can try short - term long positions and take profits in time when the price rises. The medium - term strategy is to wait patiently for the top signal and then short at high prices [6]. - **Data Highlights**: The settlement price of the DCE iron ore main contract is 733 yuan/dry ton, up 3.46% from last week. Australian iron ore shipments are 1585.2 tons, down 8.40% from last week; Brazilian iron ore shipments are 578.9 tons, down 25.47% from last week [6]. III. Industry News - On July 8, the total inventory of imported iron ore at 47 ports in China was 14403.69 tons, a decrease of 62.08 tons from last Monday. The inventory in different regions showed different trends [8]. - From June 30 to July 6, the total inventory of iron ore at seven major ports in Australia and Brazil was 1269.2 tons, an increase of 30.8 tons from the previous period [8]. - A new round of staggered production has started for Shandong cement enterprises, which will help balance supply and demand in the industry [8]. - From July 7 to July 13, the number of pre - arriving ships of New Zealand logs at 18 ports decreased by 31% week - on - week, and the arrival volume decreased by 26% week - on - week [8].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating There is no information provided regarding the report's industry investment rating. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - Short - term outlook for precious metals is that gold is weaker than silver, mid - term they will oscillate at high levels, and long - term they will rise step - by - step. Factors influencing this include short - term easing of Middle - East geopolitical conflicts while risks of economic recession and geopolitical异动 remain; increasing risk of stagflation in the US economy, and strong employment suppressing rate - cut expectations. In terms of the safe - haven attribute, Trump extended the "reciprocal" tariff effective date. Regarding the monetary attribute, chances of the Fed's interest rate falling to near - zero still exist, and strong US employment growth reduces the possibility of a near - term rate cut. For the commodity attribute, the CRB commodity index has pressure on rebound, and a strong RMB suppresses domestic prices [3]. - The price trend of gold is the anchor for the price of silver. In terms of the capital side, the net long position of CFTC silver and iShare silver ETF have reduced positions again. On the inventory side, the recent visible inventory of silver has increased slightly [7]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Gold - **Market Performance**: Today, precious metals showed gold being weaker than silver. The main contract of Shanghai gold futures closed up 0.43%, and the main contract of Shanghai silver futures closed up 0.22% [3]. - **Strategy**: Conservative investors should wait and see, while aggressive investors can buy on dips. It is recommended to manage positions well and set strict stop - loss and take - profit levels [4]. - **Data Summary**: - **Price**: Comex gold main contract closed at $3346.40 per ounce, up 0.31% from the previous day and 0.95% from last week; London gold was at $3315.35 per ounce, down 0.50% from the previous day but up 0.85% from last week. Shanghai gold main contract closed at 776.22 yuan per gram, up 0.64% from the previous day and 0.02% from last week [4]. - **Positions and Inventories**: Comex gold positions decreased by 0.81% week - on - week; Shanghai gold main contract positions increased by 6.97% week - on - week. LBMA gold inventory remained unchanged at 8598 tons; Comex gold inventory decreased by 1.08% week - on - week [4]. - **Net Positions of Futures Companies**: Among the top 10 net - long positions of Shanghai gold futures companies at the Shanghai Futures Exchange, the total net - long position of the top 5 decreased by 798, and that of the top 10 decreased by 1787. Among the top 10 net - short positions, the total net - short position of the top 5 decreased by 21, and that of the top 10 increased by 125 [5]. Silver - **Strategy**: Similar to gold, conservative investors should wait and see, and aggressive investors can buy on dips. Position management and strict stop - loss and take - profit are recommended [8]. - **Data Summary**: - **Price**: Comex silver main contract closed at $36.94 per ounce, down 0.27% from the previous day but up 1.68% from last week; London silver was at $36.25 per ounce, down 1.74% from the previous day and up 0.75% from last week. Shanghai silver main contract closed at 8953 yuan per kilogram, up 0.63% from the previous day and 1.62% from last week [8]. - **Positions and Inventories**: Comex silver positions decreased by 6.33% week - on - week; Shanghai silver main contract positions increased by 27.73% week - on - week. LBMA silver inventory increased by 4.08% week - on - week; Comex silver inventory decreased by 0.28% week - on - week [8]. - **Net Positions of Futures Companies**: Among the top 10 net - long positions of Shanghai silver futures companies at the Shanghai Futures Exchange, the total net - long position of the top 5 increased by 11872, and that of the top 10 increased by 10600. Among the top 10 net - short positions, the total net - short position of the top 5 increased by 1568, and that of the top 10 increased by 2299 [9]. Fundamental Key Data - **Fed - related Data**: The upper limit of the federal funds target rate is 4.50%, down 0.25 from the previous level; the Fed's total assets are $67103.64 billion, down 0.00% week - on - week [10]. - **Inflation and Yield Data**: The 10 - year US Treasury real yield is 2.57, up 4.05% week - on - week; the US dollar index is 97.55, up 0.76% week - on - week; the US Treasury yield spread (3 - month to 10 - year) is 0.52, down 20.29% week - on - week [10]. - **Other Key Indicators**: The US - EU yield spread (10 - year bond yield) is 1.83, up 100.00% compared to the previous value; the US - China yield spread (10 - year bond yield) is 3.27, up 5.03% compared to the previous value [12]. - **Central Bank Gold Reserves**: China's central bank gold reserves are 2298.55 tons, up 0.18% compared to the previous value; the US's are 8133.46 tons, unchanged; the world's total is 36250.15 tons, unchanged [12][13]. - **Risk - related Indexes**: The geopolitical risk index is 132.88, up 23.60% week - on - week; the VIX index is 17.32, down 2.64% from the previous day but up 2.91% week - on - week [13]. - **Commodity - related Indexes**: The CRB commodity index is 299.28, down 0.22% from the previous day but up 1.09% week - on - week; the offshore RMB exchange rate is 7.1729, up 0.15% week - on - week [13]. Fed's Latest Interest Rate Expectations Based on the CME FedWatch tool, the probability of different interest - rate ranges at each Fed meeting from July 2025 to December 2026 is provided. For example, at the July 30, 2025 meeting, the probability of the interest rate being in the 250 - 275 range is 25.3%, and in the 275 - 300 range is 74.7% [14].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided in the content. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The rise in black - series commodity prices may not be sustainable as the main goal of the Central Financial and Economic Commission meeting is anti - involution in downstream manufacturing rather than supply - side reform in the black and building materials industries. The real estate market is still bottoming out, and the economy in May was slightly below expectations, though the PMI in June improved. The current market is trading on weak reality and strong expectations [2]. - For iron ore, with the end of the downstream consumption peak and steel mill production restrictions, iron ore output is expected to decline. The supply is at a relatively high level, and the high proportion of trade ore inventory in ports exerts pressure on futures prices. However, in the short term, driven by the rise in prices of products like rebar and glass, iron ore is expected to maintain a volatile and slightly stronger trend [5]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Rebar and Hot - Rolled Coil - **Market Perception of Policy**: The market misinterpreted the Central Financial and Economic Commission meeting as a signal for a new round of supply - side reform in the black industry, but the actual target is downstream manufacturing [2]. - **Real Estate Market**: In May, housing prices in all tiers declined month - on - month. From January to June, the total sales of top 100 real estate enterprises decreased by 11.8% year - on - year, with the decline rate widening compared to the previous month, indicating that the real estate market is still bottoming out [2]. - **Economic Data**: The economic data in May was slightly below expectations, while the PMI data in June improved month - on - month [2]. - **Supply and Demand Situation**: Last week, rebar production increased, factory inventories decreased, social inventories increased, and total inventories decreased slightly. Apparent demand increased slightly month - on - month, showing a situation of weak supply and demand. With the arrival of high - temperature weather, demand is expected to weaken further, and inventories may rise slightly [2]. - **Technical Analysis**: After a short - term rally, the futures price adjusted, indicating significant resistance above [2]. - **Operation Suggestion**: Aggressive investors can try short - term long positions and take profits in time when prices rise. The medium - term strategy is to wait patiently for the top signal and then go short at high prices [2]. - **Data Summary**: - **Price**: Rebar and hot - rolled coil futures and spot prices showed certain changes compared to the previous day and week. For example, the rebar主力合约收盘价 was 3061 yuan/ton, down 0.36% from the previous day and up 2.14% from the previous week [2]. - **Production**: The national building materials steel mill rebar production was 221.08 tons, up 1.49% from the previous week; hot - rolled coil production was 328.14 tons, up 0.28% from the previous week [2]. - **Inventory**: The five - major varieties' social inventory increased by 1.06% from the previous week, while the steel mill inventory decreased by 2.24% [2]. 3.2 Iron Ore - **Production and Demand Outlook**: Currently, the steel mill profitability is acceptable, but with the end of the downstream consumption peak and production restrictions, iron ore output is expected to decline. The supply is at a relatively high level, and the high proportion of trade ore inventory in ports exerts pressure on futures prices [5]. - **Short - Term Trend**: Driven by the rise in prices of products like rebar and glass, iron ore is expected to maintain a volatile and slightly stronger trend in the short term [5]. - **Technical Analysis**: The futures price is in a large - range volatile pattern and a long - term downward cycle. After a short - term rally, it declined, indicating significant resistance above [5]. - **Operation Suggestion**: Maintain a wait - and - see stance, consider short - term long positions after a pullback, be cautious about chasing up, and the medium - term strategy is to wait patiently for the top signal and then go short at high prices [5]. - **Data Summary**: - **Price**: The DCE iron ore主力合约结算价 was 731 yuan/dry ton, down 0.20% from the previous day and up 2.17% from the previous week [6]. - **Supply**: Australian iron ore shipments were 1585.2 tons, down 8.40% from the previous week; Brazilian iron ore shipments were 578.9 tons, down 25.47% from the previous week [6]. - **Inventory**: The port inventory decreased by 0.37% from the previous week, and the port trade ore inventory decreased by 0.15% [6]. 3.3 Industry News - Coal production in the first five months of this year reached 1.99 billion tons, a year - on - year increase of 110 million tons, while coal imports decreased by 7.9% [8]. - From January to now, the global new ship order volume has decreased by 54% year - on - year. The new shipbuilding markets for container ships, cruise ships, and ferries remain active, while investment in gas ships and oil tankers has slowed down [8]. - From June 30 to July 6, the global iron ore shipments were 29.949 million tons, a decrease of 3.627 million tons from the previous period [8]. - A coal mine in Linfen, Shanxi, with a production capacity of 900,000 tons, resumed production on July 5 after a 15 - day shutdown, but its output is still below the normal level [8]. - From June 30 to July 6, the iron ore arrivals at 47 ports in China were 25.355 million tons, an increase of 1.22 million tons from the previous period [9]. - As of July 7, 16 blast furnaces in Tangshan steel enterprises were under maintenance, with a daily hot metal impact of about 39,500 tons, and the capacity utilization rate was 91.36%, a decrease of 0.58% from the previous week [9].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - Short - term, the Middle East geopolitical conflict eases, but risks of economic recession and geopolitical fluctuations remain; the risk of stagflation in the US economy increases, and strong employment suppresses the expectation of interest rate cuts. - In terms of the safe - haven attribute, Trump's signature tax - cut bill has passed, and countries face pressure to reach trade agreements with the US. - In terms of the monetary attribute, overall US employment growth is stronger than expected, eliminating the possibility of the Fed cutting interest rates in the near term. The market now expects the Fed's next interest rate cut to be in September, and the expected total rate - cut space in 2025 has fallen back to around 50 basis points. The US dollar index and US Treasury yields are oscillating strongly. - In terms of the commodity attribute, the rebound of the CRB commodity index is under pressure, and the strong RMB suppresses domestic prices. - It is expected that precious metals will show a pattern of weak gold and strong silver in the short term, oscillate at high levels in the medium term, and rise step - by - step in the long term. [1] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Gold - **Market Performance**: Today, precious metals oscillated weakly. The main contract of Shanghai gold closed down 0.64%, and the main contract of Shanghai silver closed down 0.50%. [1] - **Strategy**: Conservative investors should wait and see, while aggressive investors can buy on dips. Good position management and strict stop - loss and take - profit are recommended. [2] - **Data Details**: - **Prices**: Comex gold main contract closed at $3336/oz, up 1.52% from last week; London gold at $3331.9/oz, up 1.84%. Shanghai gold main contract closed at 771.3 yuan/g, down 0.74% from the previous day but up 0.48% from last week. [2] - **Positions**: Comex gold positions decreased by 1.42% from last week; Shanghai gold main contract positions increased by 12.80%, and gold TD positions increased by 2.22%. [2] - **Inventory**: LBMA gold inventory remained unchanged; Comex gold inventory decreased by 1.08%, and Shanghai gold inventory increased by 1.32%. [2] Silver - **Price Anchor**: The gold price trend is the anchor for the silver price. [5] - **Fund and Inventory Situation**: CFTC silver net long positions and iShare silver ETF reduced their positions again, and the visible silver inventory increased slightly recently. [5] - **Strategy**: Similar to gold, conservative investors should wait and see, and aggressive investors can buy on dips with proper position management and stop - loss/take - profit. [6] - **Data Details**: - **Prices**: Comex silver main contract closed at $37.04/oz, up 2.42% from last week; London silver at $36.89/oz, up 2.52%. Shanghai silver main contract closed at 8944 yuan/kg, up 2.25% from the previous day and 1.68% from last week. [6] - **Positions**: Comex silver positions remained unchanged; Shanghai silver main contract positions increased by 16.45% from the previous day but decreased by 12.60% from last week, and silver TD positions increased by 3.27%. [6] - **Inventory**: The total visible silver inventory increased by 0.12% from last week. [6] Key Fundamental Data - **Fed - related Data**: The upper limit of the federal funds target rate, the discount rate, and the reserve balance rate all decreased by 0.25 percentage points compared to the previous period. The Fed's total assets decreased by $30.94 billion, a decrease of 0.00%. [8] - **Economic Data**: US GDP annualized year - on - year growth was 1.9%, a decrease of 1.00 percentage points; the unemployment rate was 4.1%, a decrease of 0.10 percentage points; non - farm employment increased by 147,000. [11] - **Inflation Data**: CPI year - on - year was 4.50%, an increase of 0.65 percentage points; core PCE price index year - on - year was 2.68%, an increase of 0.10 percentage points. [8][11] - **Other Data**: The geopolitical risk index remained unchanged; the VIX index decreased by 0.18% from the previous day; the CRB commodity index increased by 1.57% from the previous day. [12] Fed's Latest Interest Rate Expectations The probability distribution of different interest rate ranges at each Fed meeting from July 2025 to December 2026 is provided, showing the market's expectations for the Fed's future interest rate adjustments. [13]

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The market misinterprets the Central Financial and Economic Commission meeting as a new round of supply - side reform in the upstream of the industrial chain, but the actual target is anti - involution in the downstream manufacturing sector, so the price increase may not be sustainable [2]. - The real estate market is still in the process of bottom - building, and the economic data in May was slightly below expectations while the PMI data in June improved month - on - month. The current state of the steel market is weak supply and demand, and with the arrival of high - temperature weather, demand will further weaken and inventory is expected to rise slightly [2]. - Currently, the iron ore market is affected by factors such as the decline in steel mill iron - water production, high global shipments, and high proportion of trade ore inventory, but in the short term, it may maintain a slightly stronger oscillatory trend driven by the price increase of products like rebar and glass [5]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs I. Rebar and Hot - Rolled Coil - **Market Situation**: The market misinterprets the Central Financial and Economic Commission meeting. The real estate market is bottom - building, economic data in May was slightly below expectations, and PMI in June improved. The steel market is in a state of weak supply and demand, and demand will weaken with high - temperature weather [2]. - **Supply and Demand Data**: This week, rebar production increased, factory inventory decreased, social inventory increased, and total inventory decreased slightly. Apparent demand rebounded slightly month - on - month. The 247 - steel - mill average daily iron - water volume decreased by 1.44 million tons (- 0.59%) compared to last week, and the national building materials steel mill rebar production increased by 3.24 million tons (1.49%) [2][3]. - **Price Data**: The rebar steel main contract closing price was 3072 yuan/ton, up 2.57% from last week; the hot - rolled coil main contract closing price was 3201 yuan/ton, up 2.56% from last week. The rebar spot price in Shanghai increased by 2.92% from last week, and the hot - rolled coil spot price increased by 1.88% [3]. - **Operation Suggestion**: Maintain a wait - and - see attitude, consider short - term long positions after a pullback, and be cautious when chasing up [2]. II. Iron Ore - **Market Situation**: Steel mill profitability is acceptable, but iron - water production is expected to decline further. Global shipments are at a relatively high level and rising seasonally. Port inventory decline has slowed down, and the high proportion of trade ore inventory exerts pressure on futures prices. In the short term, it may maintain a slightly stronger oscillatory trend [5]. - **Supply and Demand Data**: Last week, the 247 - steel - mill iron - water production exceeded 2.409 billion tons, a decrease of 150 million tons compared to the previous week. Australian iron ore shipments were 1.7306 billion tons, and Brazilian iron ore shipments were 776.7 million tons, a decrease of 9.52% [5][6]. - **Price Data**: The DCE iron ore main contract settlement price was 732.5 yuan/dry ton, up 2.23% from last week; the SGX iron ore continuous - one settlement price was 95.85 US dollars/dry ton, up 3.35% from last week [6]. - **Operation Suggestion**: Maintain a wait - and - see attitude, consider short - term long positions after a pullback, and be cautious when chasing up [5]. III. Industry News - In late June 2025, the national daily average crude steel production was 2.75 million tons, a decrease of 0.9% month - on - month; the daily average pig iron production was 2.38 million tons, an increase of 0.3% month - on - month; the daily average steel production was 4.21 million tons, an increase of 1.3% month - on - month. The steel inventory of key steel enterprises decreased by 4.7% [8]. - As of July 4, the total iron ore inventory in 35 ports reached 137.13 million tons, an increase of 210,000 tons from last week. The average daily import ore handling volume decreased by 45,000 tons from last week [8]. - The 247 - steel - mill blast furnace operating rate was 83.46%, a decrease of 0.36 percentage points from last week. The average daily iron - water production was 2.4085 million tons, a decrease of 1.44 million tons from last week. The total import iron ore inventory in 45 ports decreased by 518,300 tons [8]. - This week, the urban total inventory was 7.2366 million tons, an increase of 81,400 tons (+1.14%) from last week. The building steel inventory was 3.7507 million tons, an increase of 47,600 tons (+1.29%) from last week [8].

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints - Today, precious metals fluctuated with an upward bias. The main contract of Shanghai Gold closed up 0.47%, and the main contract of Shanghai Silver closed up 1.83%. The short - term geopolitical conflict in the Middle East has eased, but the risks of economic recession and geopolitical fluctuations still remain. The risk of stagflation in the US economy has increased, and the logic of the Fed's rate - cut is brewing. [1] - The price trend of gold is the anchor for the price of silver. In terms of capital, the net long position of CFTC silver and the iShare Silver ETF have reduced their positions again. In terms of inventory, the visible inventory of silver has increased slightly recently. [5] - It is expected that precious metals will fluctuate with an upward bias in the short term, fluctuate at a high level in the medium term, and rise step - by - step in the long term. [1] Summary by Related Catalogs Gold - **Market Performance**: The main contract of Shanghai Gold closed up 0.47%. International prices such as Comex gold and London gold, and domestic prices like Shanghai Gold main contract and Gold T + D all showed certain changes. For example, Comex gold rose 0.56% compared to the previous day. [1][2] - **Core Logic**: Short - term geopolitical conflict in the Middle East has eased, but economic recession and geopolitical risks remain. The risk of stagflation in the US economy has increased, and the Fed's rate - cut logic is brewing. [1] - **Attributes Analysis** - **Safe - haven**: Trump is disappointed with the US - Japan trade negotiation and threatens to raise tariffs. [1] - **Monetary**: Powell said the Fed needs more data before cutting rates, not ruling out action in July. Market expects the next rate - cut in September, with a total rate - cut space of about 75 basis points in 2025. The US dollar index and US Treasury yields fluctuated weakly. [1] - **Commodity**: The CRB commodity index rebounded under pressure, and the strong RMB suppressed domestic prices. [1] - **Strategy**: Conservative investors should wait and see, while aggressive investors can buy on dips. Good position management and strict stop - loss and take - profit are recommended. [2] Silver - **Market Performance**: The main contract of Shanghai Silver closed up 1.83%. International prices such as Comex silver and London silver, and domestic prices like Shanghai Silver main contract and Silver T + D also changed. For example, Comex silver rose 1.50% compared to the previous day. [1][6] - **Core Logic**: The price trend of gold is the anchor for the price of silver. Capital and inventory factors affect the silver market. [5] - **Strategy**: Similar to gold, conservative investors should wait and see, and aggressive investors can buy on dips. Good position management and strict stop - loss and take - profit are recommended. [6] Fundamental Key Data - **Fed - related Data**: The upper limit of the federal funds target rate, the discount rate, and the reserve balance rate all decreased by 0.25%. The Fed's total assets decreased by 188.42 billion US dollars to 67134.58 billion US dollars. [8] - **Inflation Data**: CPI, core CPI, PCE price index, etc. showed certain changes. For example, the year - on - year CPI was 4.50%, up 0.65% compared to the previous period. [10][11] - **Economic Growth Data**: GDP growth rate decreased, and indicators such as unemployment rate, non - farm payrolls, and labor participation rate also changed. For example, the annualized year - on - year GDP was 1.90%, down 1.00% compared to the previous period. [11] - **Other Data**: Data on the US Treasury market, real estate market, consumption, industry, trade, etc. also showed different trends. For example, the 10 - year US Treasury real yield was 2.50%, up 1.21% compared to the previous day. [11][12] Fed's Latest Interest Rate Expectations The probability of different interest rate ranges at each Fed meeting from July 2025 to December 2026 is provided. For example, at the July 30, 2025 meeting, the probability of the interest rate being in the 250 - 275 range is 25.3%, and in the 275 - 300 range is 74.7%. [13]

投资咨询系列报告 山金期货黑色板块日报 一、螺纹、热卷 更新时间：2025年07月03日08时26分 报告导读： 本周二中央财经委召开会议，要求加大落后产能淘汰力度，依法依规治理企业低价无序竞争。市场把本次会议理解为要推出新一轮供给侧改革 。但 本次会议的主要目标并不是在产业链上游推进供给侧改革 ，而是要在下游的制造环节反内卷。因此，昨日期价涨 2%，持仓量大幅增加，说明仍有 空头选择逢高卖出。 5 月各线房价环比均回落，1-6 月 top100 房企总销售额同比下降 11.8%，降幅比 上月有所扩大，显示目前的房地产市场仍处于 筑底的过程中。5 月的经济数据整体略不及预期，6 月的 PMI 数据环比有所改善。供需方面，我的钢铁公布的数据显示，上周螺纹产量有所上升， 厂库回升，社库继续回落，总库存下降，表观需求环比略有回升，数据显示目前处于供需双弱的状态 。从需求的季节性规律看，随着高温天气的到 来，需求将进一步走弱，且库存预计将会小幅回升。整体来看，目前市场交易的是弱现实和强预期 。从技术上看，期价维持震荡偏强的走势，目前 已经突破了上方布林带上轨的阻力 。 操作建议： 维持观望，回调之后可短线做多，追涨须 ...

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The current real estate market is still in the process of bottom - building, with economic data in May slightly falling short of expectations and PMI data in June showing a slight improvement. The steel market is in a state of weak supply and demand, and prices may have fully reflected various negative factors. The iron ore market has a relatively high supply of global shipments, and the decline in port inventory has slowed down, putting pressure on futures prices. [2][5] - Technically, the steel futures price maintains a slightly stronger oscillating trend, with strong resistance expected near the 60 - day moving average. The iron ore futures price is in a large - range oscillating pattern, with a long - term downward trend and short - term weak oscillation. [2][5] Summary by Directory 1. Thread Steel and Hot - Rolled Coil - **Market Environment**: The central bank suggests strengthening monetary policy regulation, and the expectation of reserve requirement ratio and interest rate cuts in the second half of the year has intensified. From January to June, the total sales of top 100 real estate enterprises decreased by 11.8% year - on - year, and the decline was larger than last month. [2] - **Supply and Demand Situation**: Last week, the production of thread steel increased, factory inventory rebounded, social inventory continued to decline, and total inventory decreased. Apparent demand increased slightly month - on - month. With the arrival of the rainy season and high - temperature weather, demand is expected to weaken further, and inventory may rise slightly. [2] - **Operation Suggestion**: Maintain a wait - and - see attitude, treat it with an oscillating mindset. Short - term long positions can be taken after the price stabilizes during a correction, and do not chase the rise. [2] - **Data Summary**: - **Price**: The closing price of the thread steel main contract was 3003 yuan/ton, up 0.87% from last week; the closing price of the hot - rolled coil main contract was 3136 yuan/ton, up 1.19% from last week. [2] - **Basis and Spread**: The main basis of thread steel was 117 yuan/ton, down 16 yuan from the previous day; the main basis of hot - rolled coil was 64 yuan/ton, down 13 yuan from the previous day. [2] - **Production and Inventory**: The production of national building material steel mills' thread steel was 217.84 tons, up 2.67% from last week; the social inventory of thread steel was 363.4 tons, down 1.45% from last week. [2] 2. Iron Ore - **Supply and Demand Situation**: Currently, the profitability of steel mills is acceptable, but with the end of the downstream consumption peak and steel mill production restrictions, the molten iron output is expected to decline further. On the supply side, global shipments are at a relatively high level and rising seasonally. The decline in port inventory has slowed down, and the proportion of trading ore inventory is relatively high, putting pressure on futures prices. [5] - **Operation Suggestion**: Maintain a wait - and - see attitude. Short - term long positions can be taken after the price correction, and do not chase the rise or kill the fall. [5] - **Data Summary**: - **Price**: The settlement price of the DCE iron ore main contract was 708.5 yuan/dry ton, down 0.98% from the previous day and up 0.78% from last week. [5] - **Basis and Spread**: The 9 - 1 spread of DCE iron ore futures was 24 yuan/dry ton, down 1.5 yuan from the previous day. [5] - **Supply and Inventory**: Australian iron ore shipments were 1730.6 tons, down 8.14% from last week; Brazilian iron ore shipments were 776.7 tons, down 9.52% from last week. Port inventory totaled 13930.23 tons, up 0.26% from last week. [5] 3. Industry News - On July 1, Mysteel statistics showed that the total inventory of imported iron ore at 47 ports in China was 14465.77 tons, a decrease of 28.74 tons from last Monday. Except for the southern and river - side regions, the inventory of imported iron ore at ports in other regions decreased compared with last Monday. [8] - Satellite data showed that from June 23 to June 29, 2024, the total inventory of iron ore at seven major ports in Australia and Brazil was 1238.4 tons, a decrease of 18.8 tons from the previous period, and the inventory was at a relatively low level since the second quarter. [8]

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. Core Viewpoints - The Fed is likely to keep interest rates unchanged in July, with over 50% expectation of a rate cut in September. The baseline assumption is a 25BP rate cut in Q4, but there are uncertainties in tariff policies, US Treasuries, and geopolitics [2]. - OPEC+ is likely to increase production, with Saudi Arabia's exports increasing by 441,000 barrels per day in June. The oil market may return to supply - demand fundamentals, and short - term attention should be paid to OPEC policies and reciprocal tariffs [2]. - The oil price is in a low - level oscillation pattern. Traders are advised to short at high prices but wait for the right opportunity. If there is a short - term downward break, short - term follow - up can be considered, with stop - loss in mind [2]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Oil Futures - On July 1st, Sc was at 499.40 yuan/barrel, up 2.70 yuan (0.54%) from the previous day and down 19.20 yuan (-3.70%) from last week. WTI was at $65.53/barrel, up $0.56 (0.86%) from the previous day and up $0.52 (0.80%) from last week. Brent was at $67.28/barrel, up $0.65 (0.98%) from the previous day and down $0.54 (-0.80%) from last week [2]. Inner - Outer Spreads - Sc - WTI was at $4.28/barrel, down $0.13 (-2.99%) from the previous day and down $3.08 (-41.84%) from last week. Sc - Brent was at $2.53/barrel, down $0.22 (-8.06%) from the previous day and down $2.02 (-44.37%) from last week. Brent - WTI was at $1.75/barrel, down $1.01 (-36.48%) from the previous day and down $2.80 (-61.57%) from last week [2]. Sc Month - Spreads - Sc_C1 - C2 was at 6.60 yuan/barrel, up 6.70 yuan (6700.00%) from the previous day and up 4.30 yuan (186.96%) from last week. Sc_C1 - C6 was at 22.10 yuan/barrel, up 4.00 yuan (22.10%) from the previous day and down 13.40 yuan (-37.75%) from last week. Sc_C1 - C13 was at 25.50 yuan/barrel, up 1.40 yuan (5.81%) from the previous day and down 28.40 yuan (-52.69%) from last week [2]. Crude Oil Spot - OPEC's basket of crude oil was at $68.35/barrel, with no change from the previous day and up $0.36 (0.53%) from last week. Brent DTD was at $68.17/barrel, with no change from the previous day and down $1.05 (-1.52%) from last week. Oman was at $69.20/barrel, with no change from the previous day and up $1.40 (2.06%) from last week. Dubai was at $68.75/barrel, with no change from the previous day and up $0.95 (1.40%) from last week. ESPO was at $62.76/barrel, with no change from the previous day and up $0.49 (0.79%) from last week [2]. Premiums and Discounts - OPEC's basket of premiums and discounts was at $1.07/barrel, down $0.47 (-30.52%) from the previous day and up $0.14 (15.05%) from last week. Brent DTD premiums and discounts was at $0.89/barrel, down $1.68 (-65.37%) from the previous day and down $1.38 (-281.63%) from last week. Oman premiums and discounts was at $1.92/barrel, up $2.02 (2020.00%) from the previous day and down $3.94 (-195.05%) from last week. Dubai premiums and discounts was at $1.47/barrel, up $2.80 (210.53%) from the previous day and down $1.31 (-47.12%) from last week. ESPO premiums and discounts was at -$4.52/barrel, down $2.89 (-177.30%) from the previous day and down $18.82 (-131.60%) from last week [2]. Product Spot - Diesel in East China was at 7,036.45 yuan/ton, down 56.27 yuan (-0.79%) from the previous day and down 380.55 yuan (-5.13%) from last week. Gasoline in East China was at 8,078.18 yuan/ton, down 66.18 yuan (-0.81%) from the previous day and down 384.27 yuan (-4.54%) from last week [2]. Spread References - Diesel (East China)/Sc was 14.089817, down 0.19 (-1.33%) from the previous day and down 0.21 (-1.48%) from last week. Gasoline (East China)/Sc was 16.175775, down 0.22 (-1.35%) from the previous day and down 0.14 (-0.87%) from last week. Diesel - gasoline (East China) was -1,041.73 yuan/ton, up 9.91 yuan (-0.94%) from the previous day and up 3.73 yuan (-0.36%) from last week [2]. Sc Warehouse Receipts - The total warehouse receipts were 5.911 million barrels, with no change from the previous day and up 1.882 million barrels (46.71%) from last week. The strategic petroleum reserve was 402.53 million barrels, with no change from the previous day and up 0.24 million barrels (0.06%) from last week [2]. EIA US (Weekly) - Commercial crude oil was 415.11 million barrels, with no change from the previous day and down 5.84 million barrels (-1.39%) from last week. Cushing crude oil was 22.22 million barrels, with no change from the previous day and down 0.46 million barrels (-2.05%) from last week. Gasoline was 227.94 million barrels, with no change from the previous day and down 2.08 million barrels (-0.90%) from last week. Distillates were 105.33 million barrels, with no change from the previous day and down 4.07 million barrels (-3.72%) from last week [2]. CFTC Positions (Weekly) - Non - commercial net positions were 233,000 contracts, with no change from the previous day and up 19,000 contracts (0.83%) from last week. Commercial net positions were -270,500 contracts, with no change from the previous day and down 115,000 contracts (4.44%) from last week. Non - reported net positions were 37,600 contracts, with no change from the previous day and up 9,600 contracts (34.17%) from last week [2]. Industry News - Trump said Israel agreed to the conditions for a 60 - day cease - fire with Hamas, and he will meet Netanyahu on the 7th to discuss the Gaza situation and the Iranian nuclear issue [3]. - Iran was reported to have loaded mines on ships in the Persian Gulf, preparing to mine the Strait of Hormuz [4]. - Houthi rebels attacked Israeli airports and cities with missiles and drones on July 1st [4]. - US API crude oil inventory increased by 680,000 barrels in the week ending June 28th, Cushing crude oil inventory decreased by 1.417 million barrels, gasoline inventory increased by 1.92 million barrels, and refined oil inventory decreased by 3.458 million barrels [5]. - Mexico's oil production is dropping to the level of the late 1970s, and its June exports dropped to a record low of 529,000 barrels per day [5]. - Israel's military action assessment report showed that its multi - layer air defense system intercepted 86% of Iranian ballistic missiles and over 99% of drones [6]. - Trump said he won't extend the trade negotiation deadline on July 9th and is skeptical about reaching an agreement with Japan, and may impose higher tariffs on Japanese imports [6]. - Brazil's oil production in May reached 3.679 million barrels per day, a 10.9% year - on - year increase, and natural gas production was 172.3 million cubic meters, an 18.3% year - on - year increase [7]. - Saudi Arabia's crude oil exports increased by 441,000 barrels per day in June to 6.36 million barrels per day, the highest in over a year [7]. - The US Senate passed a comprehensive tax - cut and spending bill, which plans to cut taxes by $4 trillion and spending by at least $1.5 trillion in the next 10 years, and raise the federal debt ceiling by $5 trillion [9].