1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - For the rebar and hot - rolled coil sector, the improvement in apparent demand provides some support for futures prices, and the central bank's reduction of re - loan and re - discount rates boosts market confidence. There is still room for reserve requirement ratio and interest rate cuts in the future. Technically, futures prices face pressure after a short - term downward breakthrough. For the iron ore sector, the improvement in steel apparent demand is mainly due to year - end rush construction, and the decline in iron ore demand and supply is limited. The continuous increase in port inventory suppresses futures prices, and the upward trend may end, with short - term low - level fluctuations expected [2][4]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs 3.1 Rebar and Hot - Rolled Coil - **Supply and Demand**: Last week, rebar production decreased, overall inventory continued to decline, rebar apparent demand rebounded significantly, and the apparent demand of five major steel products rebounded while inventory decreased and production remained basically unchanged. The improvement in apparent demand may be due to year - end rush construction and may not be sustainable. Short - term steel mill production may continue to decline [2]. - **Technical Analysis**: Futures prices rose and then fell, forming a short - term downward breakthrough and facing significant pressure [2]. - **Operation Suggestion**: Hold long positions lightly, and add positions at low prices when futures prices fall to the lower edge of the oscillation range. Conduct medium - term trading and avoid chasing up or selling down [2]. - **Data**: Rebar and hot - rolled coil futures and spot prices declined to varying degrees. The blast furnace operating rate of 247 steel mills was 79.31%, with a daily average pig iron output of 228.01 million tons, a decrease of 0.65%. The proportion of profitable steel mills was 39.83%, an increase of 2.17%. Rebar production was 190.30 million tons, a decrease of 0.39%. Hot - rolled coil production was 308.36 million tons, an increase of 0.93%. The capacity utilization rate of independent electric arc furnace steel mills was 57.99%, an increase of 1.08%. The operating rate was 72.97%. The five - major - product social inventory was 866.33 million tons, an increase of 0.13%. The rebar social inventory was 295.41 million tons, an increase of 5.23 million tons. The hot - rolled coil social inventory was 285.8 million tons, a decrease of 1.72%. The five - major - product steel mill inventory was 380.68 million tons, a decrease of 2.08% [2]. 3.2 Iron Ore - **Demand**: The overall output of five major steel products remained basically unchanged last week, and the apparent demand rebounded. The pig iron output is likely to decline seasonally. The improvement in steel apparent demand is mainly due to year - end rush construction, and the decline in steel and pig iron output is limited. An accident at a rolling mill under Baotou Steel Group may disrupt iron ore demand [4]. - **Supply**: Global shipments continued to decline, and the arrival volume decreased. The continuous increase in port inventory suppresses futures prices [4]. - **Technical Analysis**: Futures prices broke through the recent oscillation range and rose strongly but adjusted significantly in the past two days, falling below the support of the 10 - day moving average and returning to the upper edge of the previous oscillation range, where there may be some support, but the upward trend may end, with short - term low - level fluctuations expected [4]. - **Operation Suggestion**: Hold long positions and reduce or liquidate positions in time when the price rises in the future [4]. - **Data**: The settlement price of DCE iron ore futures and SGX iron ore futures declined. The global iron ore shipment volume decreased, with Australian shipments at 1440.1 million tons, a decrease of 13.22%, and Brazilian shipments at 480.1 million tons, a decrease of 25.80%. The arrival volume at northern six ports was 1442.9 million tons, a decrease of 1.79%. The average daily port clearance volume was 335.02 million tons, a decrease of 0.58%. The port inventory was 16555.1 million tons, an increase of 1.72% [4][5]. 3.3 Industry News - BHP's Pilbara iron ore production in Q4 2025 was 76.326 million tons, a quarter - on - quarter increase of 7.96% and a year - on - year increase of 4.26%. The total iron ore sales volume was 75.397 million tons, a quarter - on - quarter increase of 6.81% and a year - on - year increase of 3.86%. The target guidance for the 2026 fiscal year remains unchanged at 258 - 269 million tons [7]. - Heavy pollution weather orange alerts were activated in Henan's Xuchang and Jiaozuo on January 20, 2026, and industrial enterprises are required to implement emission reduction measures [7]. - In December 2025, China's crude steel production was 68.18 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of 10.3%. From January to December, the cumulative production was 961 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of 4.4% [7]. - On January 17, 2026, the first batch of 200,000 tons of high - grade iron ore from Guinea's Simandou project arrived at Majishan Port. The project's annual production capacity is 120 million tons, and the expected export volume in 2026 is 18 million tons [8].

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The short - term safe - haven factor shows a shift from trade - war safe - haven to rising geopolitical risks. The weakening US employment and moderate inflation still support the expectation of interest rate cuts. - Geopolitical risks are rising as Trump threatens to impose tariffs on eight European countries, and the EU may retaliate. - In terms of monetary attributes, the US December CPI increase met expectations, but household food and rent expenditures increased. December employment growth almost stalled, and the decline in the unemployment rate alleviated concerns about the deterioration of the labor market. The Fed cut interest rates in December with differences and may cut rates only once next year. The market expects a 95% probability that the Fed will not cut rates in January 2026, and the next cut may be in June. The US dollar index and US Treasury yields are oscillating strongly. - In terms of commodity attributes, silver is supported by tight supply. The demand for platinum - based catalysts in the platinum hydrogen energy industry is expected to be strong. Palladium has short - term demand resilience but faces long - term structural pressure in the fuel - vehicle market. The CRB commodity index is oscillating weakly, and the appreciation of the RMB is negative for domestic prices. - It is expected that precious metals will be oscillating strongly in the short term, oscillating at a high level in the medium term, and rising step - by - step in the long term. [1] Summary by Relevant Catalogs Gold - Strategy: Conservative investors should wait and see, while aggressive investors can buy on dips. Good position management and strict stop - loss and take - profit are recommended. - Price data: Comex gold active contract closed at $4601.10 per ounce, down $19.40 (-0.42%) from the previous day and up $82.70 (1.83%) from last week. London gold was at $4611.05 per ounce, up $0.20 (0.00%) from the previous day and up $117.20 (2.61%) from last week. Shanghai gold futures closed at 1060.16 yuan per gram, up 8.36 yuan (0.79%) from the previous day and up 32.98 yuan (3.21%) from last week. - Other data: The net long position of CFTC managed funds increased by 12,292 lots. The SPDR gold ETF decreased by 3.15 tons (-0.33%) compared to last week. [2] Silver - Strategy: Conservative investors should wait and see, while aggressive investors can buy on dips. Good position management and strict stop - loss and take - profit are recommended. - Price data: Comex silver active contract closed at $89.95 per ounce, unchanged from the previous day and up $4.79 (5.63%) from last week. London silver was at $93.01 per ounce, up $2.21 (2.43%) from the previous day and up $8.94 (10.63%) from last week. Shanghai silver futures closed at 23,062 yuan per kilogram, down 127 yuan (-0.55%) from the previous day and up 2058 yuan (9.80%) from last week. - Other data: The net long position of CFTC managed funds decreased by 2613 lots. The iShare silver ETF decreased by 274.89 tons (-1.68%) compared to last week. [4] Platinum - Strategy: Conservative investors should wait and see, while aggressive investors can buy on dips. Good position management and strict stop - loss and take - profit are recommended. - Price data: NYMEX platinum active contract closed at $2272.90 per ounce, down $47.20 (-2.03%) from the previous day and up $341.40 (17.68%) from last week. London platinum was at $2208 per ounce, unchanged from the previous day and up $302 (15.84%) from last week. Platinum futures on the Guangzhou Futures Exchange closed at 686.95 yuan per gram, up 29.30 yuan (4.46%) from the previous day and up 144.35 yuan (26.60%) from last week. - Other data: The net long position of CFTC managed funds remained unchanged. [7] Palladium - Strategy: Conservative investors should wait and see, while aggressive investors can buy low and sell high. Good position management and strict stop - loss and take - profit are recommended. - Price data: NYMEX palladium active contract closed at $1821 per ounce, down $143 (-7.28%) from the previous day and up $96 (5.57%) from last week. London palladium was at $1837 per ounce, up $194 (10.56%) from the previous day and up $194 (11.81%) from last week. Palladium futures on the Guangzhou Futures Exchange closed at 529.05 yuan per gram, down 49.40 yuan (-8.54%) from the previous day and up 52.45 yuan (11.01%) from last week. - Other data: The net long position of CFTC managed funds remained unchanged. [10] Key Fundamental Data of Precious Metals - Federal funds target rate upper limit: 3.75%, down 0.25% from the previous value. - Discount rate: 3.75%, down 0.25% from the previous value. - Reserve balance interest rate (IORB): 3.65%, down 0.25% from the previous value. - Fed total assets: $6632.72 billion, up $8.162 billion (0.00%) from the previous value. - M2 (year - on - year): 4.27%, down 0.37% from the previous value. - Ten - year US Treasury real yield: 2.50%, up 0.03 (1.21%) from the previous day and down 0.01 (-0.40%) from last week. - US dollar index: 99.05, down 0.32 (-0.32%) from the previous day and up 0.15 (0.15%) from last week. [11]

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content Core Viewpoints of the Report - For the steel sector, the improvement in apparent demand provides some support for futures prices, and the central bank's reduction in re - loan and re - discount rates boosts market confidence to some extent. However, the market is in the off - season, and the improvement in demand may be due to year - end rush construction and lack strong sustainability. Steel mill production may continue to decline in the short term. [2] - For the iron ore sector, demand is affected by the seasonal decline in molten iron production, and the improvement in steel apparent demand is likely due to year - end rush construction. The accident at a rolling mill of Baotou Steel Group may disrupt iron ore demand. Supply has decreased in global shipments, and rising port inventories suppress futures prices, while the sharp rebound of coking coal and coke supports iron ore prices. [3] Summary by Relevant Catalogs 1. Thread and Hot - Rolled Coil - **Supply and Demand Situation**: Last week, thread production decreased, overall inventory continued to decline, and the apparent demand for thread and the five major steel products rebounded. The market is in the off - season, and the improvement in demand may be due to year - end rush construction. Short - term steel mill production may continue to decline. [2] - **Technical Analysis**: Futures prices rose and then fell, forming a short - term downward breakthrough and facing significant pressure. [2] - **Operation Suggestion**: Reduce long positions, wait for futures prices to fall to the lower edge of the oscillation range and then add positions on dips for mid - line trading. Avoid chasing highs or selling lows. [2] - **Data Summary**: - **Prices**: Thread steel and hot - rolled coil futures and spot prices generally declined. For example, the closing price of the thread steel main contract was 3140 yuan/ton, down 0.79% from last week. [2] - **Basis and Spreads**: The basis and spreads of thread steel and hot - rolled coil futures showed different changes. For example, the main basis of thread steel was 150 yuan/ton, up 5 from last week. [2] - **Production and Inventory**: The production of some products changed, and inventory also showed different trends. For example, the production of thread steel by national building material steel mills was 190.30 tons, down 0.39% from last week. The social inventory of thread steel was 295.41 tons, up 1.80% from last week. [2] 2. Iron Ore - **Demand Situation**: The overall production of the five major steel products remained basically unchanged last week, and apparent demand rebounded. Molten iron production is likely to decline seasonally. The improvement in steel apparent demand is due to year - end rush construction, and steel and molten iron production will not rise significantly but also have limited decline space. The accident at a rolling mill of Baotou Steel Group may affect iron ore demand. [3] - **Supply Situation**: Global shipments have decreased, and rising port inventories suppress futures prices. [3] - **Price Support Factor**: The sharp rebound of coking coal and coke supports iron ore prices. [3] - **Technical Analysis**: Futures prices broke through the recent oscillation range and rose strongly but have adjusted significantly in the past two days, falling below the support of the 10 - day moving average, indicating the end of the mid - line upward trend. [3] - **Operation Suggestion**: Hold long positions and reduce or liquidate positions in a timely manner when the price rises in the future. [3] - **Data Summary**: - **Prices**: Iron ore spot and futures prices generally declined. For example, the settlement price of the DCE iron ore main contract was 794 yuan/dry ton, down 3.47% from last week. [4] - **Basis and Spreads**: The basis and spreads of iron ore futures showed different changes. For example, the DCE iron ore futures 9 - 1 spread was 14 yuan/dry ton, up 75 from last week. [4] - **Supply - related Data**: Overseas shipments decreased, and port inventories increased. For example, Australian iron ore shipments were 1440.1 tons, down 13.22% from last week, and port inventory was 16555.1 tons, up 1.72% from last week. [4] 3. Industry News - From January 12th to 18th, 2026, the total arrival volume of iron ore at 47 ports in China was 2897.7 tons, a decrease of 117.3 tons from the previous period. [6] - From January 12th to 18th, 2026, the global iron ore shipment volume was 2929.8 tons, a decrease of 251.1 tons from the previous period. [6] - In December 2025, the crude steel output was 6818 tons, a year - on - year decrease of 10.3% and a month - on - month decrease of 2.4%. [6] - In December 2025, the raw coal output was 43703 tons, a year - on - year decrease of 1.0% and a month - on - month increase of 2.4%. [6]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided in the report. 2. Core Views of the Report - Today, precious metals showed a volatile and upward - trending pattern. Shanghai Gold's main contract rose 1.54%, Shanghai Silver's main contract rose 2.75%, Platinum's main contract fell 0.48%, and Palladium's main contract rose 0.64% [1]. - In the short - term, trade - war - related safe - haven demand has subsided, while geopolitical risks have increased. The weakening US employment and moderate inflation still support expectations of interest - rate cuts [1]. - Trump's threat to impose tariffs on eight European countries controlling Greenland has led to considerations of retaliation by EU countries, increasing geopolitical risks [1]. - The US CPI increase in December met expectations, but household food and rent expenditures increased. US employment growth almost stalled in December, and the unemployment rate decline alleviated concerns about the deterioration of the labor market. The number of initial jobless claims in the US last week unexpectedly decreased, and the labor market is in a stagnant state. The Fed cut interest rates in December with significant differences, hinting at a pause in action and only one potential rate cut next year. Powell stated that the Fed's interest - rate policy is in a good position to handle future economic trends. Currently, the market expects the probability of the Fed not cutting interest rates in January 2026 to remain around 95%, and the next rate cut may occur in June. The US dollar index and US Treasury yields are oscillating strongly [1]. - Silver is supported by tight supply. The demand for platinum - based catalysts in the platinum hydrogen - energy industry is expected to be strong. Palladium still has short - term demand resilience but faces long - term structural pressure from the fuel - vehicle market. The CRB commodity index is oscillating weakly, and the appreciation of the RMB is negative for domestic prices [1]. - It is expected that precious metals will show a volatile and upward - trending pattern in the short - term, high - level oscillations in the medium - term, and a step - by - step upward trend in the long - term [1]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Gold - Strategy: Conservative investors should wait and see, while aggressive investors can buy low and sell high. It is recommended to manage positions well and set strict stop - loss and take - profit levels [2]. - Price: Comex gold active contract closed at $4,601.10 per ounce, down $19.40 (- 0.42%) from the previous day and up $82.70 (1.83%) from the previous week. London gold was at $4,611.05 per ounce, up $0.20 (0.00%) from the previous day and up $117.20 (2.61%) from the previous week. Shanghai Gold's main contract closed at 1,051.80 yuan per gram, up 19.48 yuan (1.89%) from the previous day and up 25.52 yuan (2.49%) from the previous week [2]. - Other data: The net long position of CFTC managed funds increased by 12,292 lots. SPDR gold ETF holdings decreased by 3.15 tons (- 0.33%) [2]. Silver - Strategy: Conservative investors should wait and see, while aggressive investors can buy on dips. It is recommended to manage positions well and set strict stop - loss and take - profit levels [4]. - Price: Comex silver active contract closed at $89.95 per ounce, down $2.27 (- 2.46%) from the previous day and up $10.16 (12.73%) from the previous week. London silver was at $90.80 per ounce, down $0.47 (- 0.51%) from the previous day and up $12.66 (16.20%) from the previous week. Shanghai Silver's main contract closed at 23,189 yuan per kilogram, up 706 yuan (3.14%) from the previous day and up 2,244 yuan (10.71%) from the previous week [4]. - Other data: The net long position of CFTC managed funds decreased by 2,613 lots. iShare silver ETF holdings decreased by 274.89 tons (- 1.68%) [4]. Platinum - Strategy: Conservative investors should wait and see, while aggressive investors can buy on dips. It is recommended to manage positions well and set strict stop - loss and take - profit levels [6]. - Price: NYMEX platinum active contract closed at $2,272.90 per ounce, down $47.20 (- 2.03%) from the previous day and up $341.40 (17.68%) from the previous week. London platinum was at $2,208 per ounce, unchanged from the previous day and up $302 (15.84%) from the previous week. Platinum's main contract on the GZEX closed at 686.95 yuan per gram, up 29.30 yuan (4.46%) from the previous day and up 144.35 yuan (26.60%) from the previous week [7]. - Other data: The net long position of CFTC managed funds remained unchanged [7]. Palladium - Strategy: Conservative investors should wait and see, while aggressive investors can buy low and sell high. It is recommended to manage positions well and set strict stop - loss and take - profit levels [10]. - Price: NYMEX palladium active contract closed at $1,821 per ounce, down $143 (- 7.28%) from the previous day and up $96 (5.57%) from the previous week. London palladium was at $1,837 per ounce, up $194 (10.56%) from the previous day and up $194 (11.81%) from the previous week. Palladium's main contract on the GZEX closed at 529.05 yuan per gram, down 49.40 yuan (- 8.54%) from the previous day and up 52.45 yuan (11.01%) from the previous week [10]. - Other data: The net long position of CFTC managed funds remained unchanged [10]. Key Fundamental Data of Precious Metals - Federal funds target rate upper limit is 3.75%, down 0.25 percentage points; discount rate is 3.75%, down 0.25 percentage points; reserve balance rate (IORB) is 3.65%, down 0.25 percentage points [11]. - The Fed's total assets are 6,632.72 billion US dollars, up 8.162 billion US dollars (0.00%) [11]. - The 10 - year US Treasury real yield is 2.50%, up 0.03 (1.21%) [11]. - The US dollar index is 99.37, up 0.02 (0.02%) [11]. - Other economic data such as inflation, employment, real estate, consumption, and trade are also presented in detail in the report [11][13].

投资咨询系列报告 山金期货黑色板块日报 一、螺纹、热卷 更新时间：2026年01月19日08时25分 二、铁矿石 报告导读： 请务必阅读文后重要声明 第 1 页，共 3 页 报告导读： 供需方面，本周的数据显示螺纹产量下降，整体库存继续回落，螺纹表观需求环比出现较大幅度的反弹 ，五大品种表观需求整体反弹，库存下降， 产量基本维持不变。目前市场整体处于消费淡季，表需的好转或主要因年末抢工期导致 ，或并不具备很强的持续性，短期钢厂产量仍有可能延续下 降的趋势。整体来看，表观需求的好转对期价有一定的支撑 ，央行下调再贷款再贴现利率在一定程度上提振市场信心 。 操作建议： 多单继续持有，中线交易。不可以追涨杀跌 表1：螺纹、热卷相关数据 | 数据类别 | 指标 | 单位 | 最新 | | 较上日 | | 较上周 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | 螺纹钢主力合约收盘价 | 元/吨 | 3163 | 3 | 0.09% | 19 | 0.60% | | | 热轧卷板主力合约收盘价 | 元/吨 | 3315 | 8 | 0.24% | 21 | ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - In the steel market, the improvement in apparent demand provides some support for futures prices, and the central bank's reduction of re - loan and rediscount rates boosts market confidence to a certain extent. For both螺纹and热卷, it is recommended to hold long positions for mid - line trading and avoid chasing up or selling down. For iron ore, although the short - term increase in iron water production is unexpected, it is likely a short - term phenomenon, and long positions can continue to be held for mid - line trading [2][4] 3. Summaries According to Relevant Catalogs 3.1 螺纹 and 热卷 - **Supply and Demand**: This week,螺纹production decreased, overall inventory continued to decline, and the apparent demand for螺纹and five major steel products rebounded. However, as the market is in the off - season, the improvement in demand may be due to year - end rush work and may not be sustainable. Short - term steel mill production may continue to decline [2] - **Price and Spread**: The closing prices of螺纹and热卷futures and spot prices showed different changes. The basis and spreads of futures contracts also fluctuated. For example, the螺纹steel main contract closing price was 3160 yuan/ton, down 0.06% from the previous day and 0.25% from last week [2] - **Production and Inventory**: The national building materials steel mill's螺纹production was 190.30 million tons, a week - on - week decrease of 0.74 million tons (-0.39%). The five - major varieties' social inventory was 866.33 million tons, a week - on - week increase of 1.16 million tons (0.13%) [2] - **Apparent Demand and Trading Volume**: The apparent demand for five major varieties was 826.12 million tons, a week - on - week increase of 29.30 million tons (3.68%). The 7 - day moving average of national construction steel trading volume was 22.68 million tons, down 2.35% from the previous day and 2.18% from last week [2] 3.2 Iron Ore - **Demand**: The overall production of five major steel products remained basically unchanged this week, and the apparent demand rebounded. In the off - season, iron water production is likely to decline seasonally. The short - term increase in iron water production last week is expected to be a short - term phenomenon. The improvement in steel apparent demand may be due to year - end rush work [4] - **Supply**: Global shipments of iron ore have declined, and the continuous increase in port inventory suppresses futures prices. The significant rebound in coking coal and coke prices supports iron ore prices [4] - **Price and Spread**: The settlement price of the DCE iron ore main contract was 813 yuan/dry ton, down 0.97% from the previous day. The DCE iron ore futures 9 - 1 spread was - 35.5 yuan/dry ton, down 3.5 yuan from the previous day [5] - **Inventory and Shipment**: Overseas iron ore shipments decreased, with Australian shipments at 1659.5 million tons, a week - on - week decrease of 39.0 million tons (-2.30%), and Brazilian shipments at 647 million tons, a week - on - week decrease of 51.5 million tons (-7.37%). Port inventory increased to 16275.26 million tons, a week - on - week increase of 304.37 million tons (1.91%) [5] 3.3 Industry News - In early January, key steel enterprises produced 1997 million tons of crude steel, with an average daily output of 199.7 million tons, a daily output increase of 21.6% month - on - month. It is estimated that the national daily output of crude steel was 248 million tons, a month - on - month increase of 22.8% [7] - The average profit per ton of coke for 30 independent coking plants was - 65 yuan/ton. The average profit of Shanxi quasi - first - grade coke was - 53 yuan/ton, Shandong quasi - first - grade coke was - 7 yuan/ton, Inner Mongolia second - grade coke was - 105 yuan/ton, and Hebei quasi - first - grade coke was - 12 yuan/ton [7] - As of the week of January 15,螺纹production and factory inventory decreased, social inventory increased for the second consecutive week, and apparent demand increased.螺纹production was 190.3 million tons, a week - on - week decrease of 0.74 million tons (-0.39%);螺纹apparent demand was 190.34 million tons, a week - on - week increase of 15.38 million tons (8.79%) [7]

山金期货贵金属策略报告 更新时间：2026年01月15日16时39分 报告导读： 今日贵金属震荡偏强，沪金主力收涨0.02%，沪银主力收涨1.68%，铂金主力收跌4.11%，钯金主力收涨涨0.15%。①核心逻辑， 短期避险方面，贸易战避险消退，地缘异动风险上升；美国就业走弱通胀温和，降息预期支撑仍存。②避险属性方面，伊朗警告若 特朗普发动袭击将进行报复，美国从中东基地撤离人员，美联储主席鲍威尔因总部翻修案深陷刑事调查，特朗普政府正在讨论获取 格陵兰岛的方案，美国抓捕马杜罗震惊世界，地缘异动风险上升。③货币属性方面，美国12月CPI涨幅符合预期，但家庭食品与房 租支出增加。美国12月就业增长几乎停滞，失业率下降缓解劳动力市场恶化担忧。美联储12月在重重分歧中下调利率，暗示将暂 停行动明年或仅降息一次。鲍威尔指出，美联储的利率政策已处于良好位置，可以应对未来经济走势。目前市场预期美联储26年1 月不降息概率维持在80%附近，下次降息或到4月。美元指数和美债收益率震荡偏强；④商品属性方面，白银受到供应偏紧支撑。 铂金氢能产业铂基催化剂需求预期强劲。钯金短期需求仍有韧性，长期面临燃油车市场结构性压力。CRB商品指数震 ...

Report Summary 1. Report Investment Rating for the Industry - No investment rating information is provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints - The steel market is in the off - season of consumption, showing a situation of weak supply and demand. The arrival of winter storage still needs time. The strong rise of the stock market and optimistic policy expectations boost confidence, but the market supervision's interview with the photovoltaic association and related enterprises has affected market sentiment. For both steel and iron ore, it is recommended to hold long positions for mid - term trading and avoid chasing up or selling down [2][3]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Threaded Rods and Hot - Rolled Coils - **Supply and Demand**: Last week, the production of threaded rods increased, the overall inventory continued to decline, the apparent demand for threaded rods decreased, the overall apparent demand for the five major steel products declined, the inventory increased, and production slightly rebounded. In the off - season, the steel mill production may continue to decline [2]. - **Operation Suggestion**: Hold long positions for mid - term trading, and avoid chasing up or selling down [2]. - **Data Highlights**: - The closing price of the threaded rod main contract is 3162 yuan/ton, up 4 yuan (0.13%) from the previous day and down 25 yuan (- 0.78%) from last week. - The 247 steel - mill blast furnace operating rate is 78.94%, up 0.62 percentage points; the daily average molten iron output of 247 steel mills is 229.5 million tons, up 2.07 million tons (0.91%) [2]. 3.2 Iron Ore - **Supply and Demand**: The overall production of the five major steel products increased last week, but the apparent demand decreased month - on - month. The market is in the off - season, and the molten iron output is likely to decline seasonally. Although the molten iron output of 247 sample steel mills rebounded by about 2.1 million tons last week, it is expected to be a short - term phenomenon. The arrival of pre - festival restocking demand will be later than usual this year due to the late Spring Festival. Global shipments have declined, and the rising port inventory suppresses the futures price. The sharp rebound of coking coal and coke supports the price of iron ore [3]. - **Operation Suggestion**: Hold long positions for mid - term trading [3]. - **Data Highlights**: - The settlement price of the DCE iron ore main contract is 821 yuan/dry ton, up 1.5 yuan (0.18%) from the previous day and down 7 yuan (- 0.85%) from last week. - The Australian iron ore shipments are 1659.5 million tons, down 39 million tons (- 2.30%) [4]. 3.3 Industry News - In December 2025, Mongolia's coal exports were 10.9291 million tons, a month - on - month increase of 16.83% and a year - on - year increase of 71.31%. From January to December 2025, Mongolia's cumulative coal exports were 90.0182 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 7.48% [6]. - HeSteel obtained the first steel export license order in Hebei Province for 2026, which will be shipped to Chittagong, Bangladesh [6]. - As of the week ending January 14, according to Zhaogang.com, the national building materials production was 4.4952 million tons, an increase of 0.042 million tons from last week; the factory inventory was 3.8945 million tons, a decrease of 0.0565 million tons from last week; the social inventory was 3.5609 million tons, an increase of 0.121 million tons from last week [6]. - In December, China imported 119.647 million tons of iron ore and its concentrates and 58.597 million tons of coal and lignite [6].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. 2. Core Viewpoints - The steel market is in the off - season with weak supply and demand. The winter storage is yet to come. The strong stock market and optimistic policy expectations boost confidence, but the "anti - involution" expectation decline has an impact on market sentiment. For both steel products and iron ore, it is recommended to hold long positions for mid - term trading and avoid chasing up or selling down [2][3]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Threaded Rods and Hot - Rolled Coils - **Supply and demand**: Last week, the output of threaded rods increased, the overall inventory continued to decline, the apparent demand for threaded rods decreased, the overall apparent demand for five major steel products declined, the inventory increased, and the output increased slightly. In the off - season, steel mill output may continue to decline [2]. - **Operation suggestions**: Hold long positions for mid - term trading and avoid chasing up or selling down [2]. - **Data details**: The closing prices of the main contracts of threaded rods and hot - rolled coils decreased slightly compared to the previous day but increased compared to the previous week. The prices of steel billets and scrap steel increased. The blast - furnace operating rate and daily pig - iron output of 247 steel mills increased, while the proportion of profitable steel mills decreased. The output of independent electric - arc furnace steel mills increased significantly. The social and steel - mill inventories of five major products and threaded rods increased, while the steel - mill inventory of hot - rolled coils decreased. The apparent demand for five major products and threaded rods decreased [2]. 3.2 Iron Ore - **Supply and demand**: The overall output of five major steel products increased last week, but the apparent demand decreased. In the off - season, pig - iron output is likely to decline seasonally. The short - term increase in the pig - iron output of 247 sample steel mills last week is expected to be temporary. The global shipment of iron ore has decreased, and the rising port inventory suppresses the futures price. The sharp rebound of coking coal and coke supports the iron ore price [3]. - **Operation suggestions**: Hold long positions for mid - term trading [3]. - **Data details**: The settlement prices of iron ore futures and spot decreased slightly compared to the previous day but increased compared to the previous week. The shipment of Australian and Brazilian iron ore decreased. The port inventory increased, while the inventory of imported sinter powder in 64 sample steel mills decreased. The domestic iron ore output of some mines increased [4]. 3.3 Industry News - From January 5th to January 11th, 2026, the total iron ore inventory of seven major ports in Australia and Brazil was 1.2552 billion tons, a month - on - month increase of 969,000 tons, and the inventory is slightly lower than the average level of the fourth quarter [6]. - Hebei Iron and Steel Group's silicon - manganese procurement volume in January 2026 was 17,000 tons, higher than that in December 2025 (14,700 tons) [7]. - In early January, the social inventory of five major steel products in 21 cities was 7.11 million tons, a month - on - month decrease of 100,000 tons (1.4%), and the decline rate narrowed. It was 480,000 tons (7.2%) higher than the same period last year [8].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - Today, precious metals showed a volatile and slightly stronger trend. The main contract of Shanghai gold closed up 1.01%, the main contract of Shanghai silver closed up 5.90%, the main contract of platinum closed down 3.32%, and the main contract of palladium closed down 5.22% [1] - In the short - term, the risk aversion from the trade war has subsided, while the risk of geopolitical fluctuations has increased. The weakening of the US employment and moderate inflation still support the expectation of interest rate cuts [1] - The "black swan" event that Fed Chairman Powell was deeply involved in a criminal investigation due to the headquarters renovation case directly shook the independence of monetary policy and the cornerstone of the US dollar's credit, leading to the de - anchoring of long - term inflation expectations. Geopolitical risks such as the US - Iran situation and the US arrest of Maduro have increased [1] - In December, US employment growth almost stagnated, and the decline in the unemployment rate alleviated concerns about the deterioration of the labor market. In November, the core CPI in the US increased by 2.6% year - on - year, the slowest growth rate since early 2021, lower than the market expectation of 3%. In December, the Fed cut interest rates amidst many differences, hinting at a pause in action and only one possible interest rate cut next year. Currently, the market expects the probability that the Fed will not cut interest rates in January 2026 to remain around 80%, and the next interest rate cut may be in April. The US dollar index and US bond yields are oscillating strongly [1] - Silver is supported by tight supply. The demand for platinum - based catalysts in the platinum hydrogen energy industry is expected to be strong. The short - term demand for palladium is still resilient, but it faces long - term structural pressure from the fuel - vehicle market. The CRB commodity index is oscillating weakly, and the appreciation of the RMB is negative for domestic prices [1] - It is expected that precious metals will be volatile and slightly stronger in the short term, oscillate at a high level in the medium term, and rise step - by - step in the long term [1] 3. Summary of Each Section Gold - Strategy: Conservative investors should wait and see, while aggressive investors can buy low and sell high. It is recommended to manage positions well and strictly set stop - loss and take - profit levels [2] - Price: Comex gold active contract closed at $4608.80 per ounce, up 2.00% from the previous day and 3.34% from last week; London gold was at $4612.95 per ounce, up 2.65% from the previous day and 3.51% from last week; Shanghai gold main contract closed at 1027.18 yuan per gram, up 0.09% from the previous day and 2.21% from last week; Gold T + D closed at 1025.52 yuan per gram, up 0.33% from the previous day and 2.36% from last week [2] - Other data: The net long position of the top 10 futures companies in Shanghai gold on the Shanghai Futures Exchange showed different changes, with the total net long position of the top 10 increasing by 34.94% [2][3] Silver - Strategy: Conservative investors should wait and see, while aggressive investors can buy on dips. It is recommended to manage positions well and strictly set stop - loss and take - profit levels [4] - Price: Comex silver active contract closed at $79.79 per ounce, up 4.04% from the previous day and 10.41% from last week; London silver was at $78.14 per ounce, up 3.90% from the previous day and 5.29% from last week; Shanghai silver main contract closed at 21004.00 yuan per kilogram, up 0.28% from the previous day and 7.98% from last week; Silver T + D closed at 21048.00 yuan per kilogram, up 0.70% from the previous day and 7.97% from last week [4] - Other data: The net long position of the top 10 futures companies in Shanghai silver on the Shanghai Futures Exchange showed different changes, with the total net long position of the top 10 increasing by 16.83% [4][5] Platinum - Strategy: Conservative investors should wait and see, while aggressive investors can buy low and sell high. It is recommended to manage positions well and strictly set stop - loss and take - profit levels [6] - Price: NYMEX platinum active contract closed at $2272.90 per ounce, down 2.03% from the previous day but up 17.68% from last week; London platinum was at $2208.00 per ounce, unchanged from the previous day but up 15.84% from last week; Platinum main contract on the Guangzhou Futures Exchange closed at 686.95 yuan per gram, up 4.46% from the previous day and 26.60% from last week; Platinum on the Shanghai Gold Exchange closed at 591.25 yuan per gram, down 2.59% from the previous day but up 15.56% from last week [7] - Other data: The net long position of the top 10 futures companies in platinum on the Guangzhou Futures Exchange showed different changes, with the total net long position of the top 10 increasing by 16.03% [7][9] Palladium - Strategy: Conservative investors should wait and see, while aggressive investors can buy low and sell high. It is recommended to manage positions well and strictly set stop - loss and take - profit levels [10] - Price: NYMEX palladium active contract closed at $1821.00 per ounce, down 7.28% from the previous day but up 5.57% from last week; London palladium was at $1837.00 per ounce, up 10.56% from the previous day and 11.81% from last week; Palladium main contract on the Guangzhou Futures Exchange closed at 529.05 yuan per gram, down 8.54% from the previous day but up 11.01% from last week [10] Precious Metals Fundamental Key Data - Fed: The upper limit of the federal funds target rate is 3.75%, the discount rate is 3.75%, the reserve balance interest rate (IORB) is 3.65%, and the Fed's total assets are 66245.58 billion US dollars, down 0.01% from last week [11] - US economy: GDP growth is 2.30% year - on - year and 4.30% quarter - on - quarter; CPI is 2.70% year - on - year and 0.30% month - on - month; Core CPI is 2.60% year - on - year [11] - Other data: The unemployment rate is 4.40%, down 0.10 percentage points; The geopolitical risk index is 196.96, up 51.03% from the previous day but down 28.01% from last week; The VIX index is 15.12, up 4.35% from the previous day and 1.48% from last week; The CRB commodity index is 304.04, up 0.85% from the previous day and 0.65% from last week; The offshore RMB exchange rate is 6.9733 [12][13][15] Fed's Latest Interest Rate Expectations - According to the CME FedWatch tool, the market expects different probabilities of interest rate ranges in different meetings from January 2026 to December 2027 [16]