1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided in the document. 2. Core Views of the Report - A long - term bull market started in early 2024, and the current market is in the transition from confidence restoration to the main up - wave or may already be in the main up - wave. In the fourth quarter, there will be a shock adjustment in October, and there is still a possibility of a new medium - level rise at the end of the year [5][7]. - The driving forces of the bull market include the cyclical recovery and improved expectations of the macro - economy, policy support, technological progress, and the shift of asset allocation directions [7]. - The overall index position is not high, but the valuation is relatively high. It is currently on the eve of the main up - wave, and the "Davis double - click" has not started yet. It is speculated that the valuation will increase first, followed by performance improvement [124]. - Index differentiation is obvious. There will be an obvious adjustment in October, and the index will continue to fluctuate upward from November to December, with the center of gravity moving up. The style may change at the end of the year, and the Shanghai Composite 50 will be stronger than the CSI 500 and CSI 1000 index futures. The long - term trend remains unchanged, and there is still hope for an upward movement around the Spring Festival [135]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Why the Current Bull Market Started in Early 2024 - From the definition of trends, the bear - to - bull conversion was completed in February 2024, which is also the case for other indices [10]. 3.2 Driving Forces of the Bull Market 3.2.1 Cyclical Recovery and Improved Expectations of the Macro - Economy - The fundamentals are still not optimistic, facing great pressure. For example, the growth rate of industrial added value has rebounded, but the growth rate of major industrial product output remains low; the growth rate of fixed asset investment continues to decline; the growth rate of total retail sales of consumer goods has declined, and consumer confidence is hovering at a low level; the inflation situation is continuously weak; the unemployment rate has risen seasonally; the manufacturing PMI has been continuously weak; production is strong while demand is weak, and inventories are increasing; the PMI of the construction and service industries is at a low level; the export situation is expected to deteriorate [13][14][19]. - There are also many positive signals. China's share of global exports is increasing, and the new "new three" products (robots, artificial intelligence, and innovative drugs) are emerging. The chip export is increasing year by year, and the chip import - export deficit is gradually shrinking. The production and sales of automobiles have increased, and the export volume has exceeded the sum of Germany and Japan. The production and sales of excavators have improved. The profitability of industrial enterprises above a designated size has improved month - on - month [60][61][65]. 3.2.2 Policy Support - Fiscal policy is loose. The government department's leverage ratio is relatively low and there is still room to increase leverage. Various consumption subsidies are likely to continue in some form, and other measures such as increasing the deficit scale and transfer payment intensity will be implemented [81]. - The Fed's interest rate cut provides room for domestic interest rate cuts. The 7 - day reverse repurchase rate has remained low for a long time, and the capital supply will continue to be loose. The capital interest rate still has room to decline [83][84]. - The stock market's rise can stimulate economic growth, help economic transformation, improve the corporate financing environment, relieve debt pressure, and enhance international competitiveness [88]. 3.2.3 Technological Progress - Technologies such as artificial intelligence and robotics represented by the open - source DeepSeek artificial intelligence large - model and Unitree Technology may be first applied in China. The chip industry chain is the last important short - board before China becomes a technological super - power. Technological progress will bring a bull market [89]. 3.2.4 Shift of Asset Allocation Directions - Overseas funds are flowing in. As the pressure on the US dollar to depreciate increases and the US stock market is at a record high with high correction pressure, overseas investors' expectations for A - shares have improved, resulting in an increase in the surplus of foreign exchange settlement and sales [92]. - Residents are shifting from real estate to the stock market. The demand for "speculating in real estate" temporarily does not exist. The real estate is still in the bottom - building process, and the ratio of the stock market's total market value to residents' deposits is still at a low level, with great room for improvement [101][103]. 3.3 Index Valuation - The overall index position is not high, but the valuation is relatively high. This is mainly because the current macro - economy is still in the bottom - building process, corporate profits are poor, and the valuation is passively pushed up [124]. 3.4 Index Seasonality - Index differentiation is obvious. There is an obvious adjustment in October. From November to December, the index continues to fluctuate upward with the center of gravity moving up. Sometimes, in December, fund position - adjustment may cause the index to fall. At the end of the year, the style may change, and the Shanghai Composite 50 will be stronger than the CSI 500 and CSI 1000 index futures. The long - term trend remains unchanged, and there is still hope for an upward movement around the Spring Festival [135].

投资咨询系列报告 报告导读： 山金期货黑色板块日报 一、螺纹、热卷 更新时间：2025年10月27日08时17分 供需方面，上周的数据显示螺纹表观需求继续回升 ，但整体弱于去年同期，螺纹产量有回升但总库存下降速度偏慢 。热卷的库存在大幅回升后已经 远高于同期水平。焦煤和焦炭现货偏强运行，对成本构成一定支撑。不过，由于钢厂毛利大幅回落，且消费高峰期即将过去，未来钢厂预计将压减 产量从而可能会引发阶段性的负反馈循环 。从技术上看，在日 K 线图上，螺纹和热卷的期价已经突破了上方 10 日均线的压制，预示本轮下跌行情 有结束风险。 操作建议： 空单可以轻仓持有，后市逢低需要及时止盈离场。 表1：螺纹、热卷相关数据 | 数据类别 | 指标 | 单位 | 最新 | | 较上日 | | 较上周 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | 螺纹钢主力合约收盘价 | 元/吨 | 3046 | -25 | -0.81% | 9 | 0.30% | | 期现货价格 | 热轧卷板主力合约收盘价 | 元/吨 | 3250 | -6 | -0.18% | 46 | 1 ...

Report Investment Rating - No investment rating information provided in the report Core Views - For the steel sector, although the apparent demand for rebar has rebounded this week, it remains weaker than the same period last year. Rebar production has increased, but the decline in total inventory is slow. Hot-rolled coil inventory has significantly increased and is now much higher than the same period. Coke and coking coal prices are strong, providing some support for costs. However, due to the sharp decline in steel mill profits and the approaching end of the consumption peak, steel mills may reduce production, potentially triggering a negative feedback loop. Technically, the futures prices of rebar and hot-rolled coil have closed above the 10-day moving average for two consecutive days, indicating a possible end to the downward trend [2]. - For the iron ore sector, the high iron ore demand is supported by the high iron output of sample steel mills. However, due to the decline in steel mill profits, steel mills may reduce production, which will suppress raw material prices. On the supply side, global shipments are at a high level, and the increase in port inventories during the peak consumption season has a certain suppressing effect on futures prices. The slow destocking of steel inventories also dampens the overall market sentiment. Technically, the 01 contract has rebounded slightly, and there are resistances at the 60-day and 10-day moving averages. Attention should be paid to whether it can break through these two important resistance levels [5]. Summary by Directory I. Rebar and Hot-Rolled Coil - **Supply and Demand**: This week's data shows that the apparent demand for rebar continues to rebound but is weaker than the same period last year. Rebar production has increased, but the total inventory decline is slow. Hot-rolled coil inventory has significantly increased and is much higher than the same period. Coke and coking coal prices are strong, providing some support for costs. However, due to the sharp decline in steel mill profits and the approaching end of the consumption peak, steel mills may reduce production, potentially triggering a negative feedback loop [2]. - **Technical Analysis**: On the daily K-line chart, the futures prices of rebar and hot-rolled coil have closed above the 10-day moving average for two consecutive days, indicating a possible end to the downward trend [2]. - **Operation Suggestion**: Short positions can be held lightly, and profits should be taken in a timely manner when the price drops [2]. - **Data Summary**: - **Prices**: Rebar and hot-rolled coil futures and spot prices have increased to varying degrees. For example, the closing price of the rebar main contract is 3,071 yuan/ton, up 0.10% from the previous day and 0.72% from last week [3]. - **Production**: The national building materials steel mill rebar production is 207.07 million tons, an increase of 5.91 million tons from last week, a growth rate of 2.94%. Hot-rolled coil production is 322.46 million tons, an increase of 0.62 million tons from last week, a growth rate of 0.19% [3]. - **Inventory**: The five major varieties of social inventory are 1,099.7 million tons, a decrease of 26.14 million tons from last week, a decline of 2.32%. Rebar social inventory is 437.48 million tons, a decrease of 18.93 million tons from last week, a decline of 4.15%. Hot-rolled coil social inventory is 337.57 million tons, a decrease of 3.77 million tons from last week, a decline of 1.10% [3]. - **Apparent Demand**: The apparent demand for the five major varieties is 892.73 million tons, an increase of 17.32 million tons from last week, a growth rate of 1.98%. Rebar apparent demand is 226.01 million tons, an increase of 6.26 million tons from last week, a growth rate of 2.85% [3]. II. Iron Ore - **Supply and Demand**: High iron ore demand is supported by the high iron output of sample steel mills. However, due to the decline in steel mill profits, steel mills may reduce production, which will suppress raw material prices. On the supply side, global shipments are at a high level, and the increase in port inventories during the peak consumption season has a certain suppressing effect on futures prices. The slow destocking of steel inventories also dampens the overall market sentiment [5]. - **Technical Analysis**: The 01 contract has rebounded slightly, and there are resistances at the 60-day and 10-day moving averages. Attention should be paid to whether it can break through these two important resistance levels [5]. - **Operation Suggestion**: Short positions can be continued to be held [5]. - **Data Summary**: - **Prices**: Iron ore spot and futures prices have increased to varying degrees. For example, the settlement price of the DCE iron ore main contract is 777 yuan/dry ton, up 0.39% from the previous day and 0.45% from last week [5]. - **Shipments**: Australian iron ore shipments are 1,729.5 million tons, an increase of 65.3 million tons from last week, a growth rate of 3.92%. Brazilian iron ore shipments are 749 million tons, an increase of 22.1 million tons from last week [5]. - **Inventory**: Port inventories are 14,278.27 million tons, an increase of 253.77 million tons from last week, a growth rate of 1.81%. The inventory of imported sintered powder ore in 64 sample steel mills is 1,291.42 million tons, a decrease of 0.44 million tons from last week, a decline of 0.03% [5]. III. Industry News - **Coal**: Mongolian coal imports have decreased significantly due to political struggles in Mongolia. On Wednesday, the number of customs clearance vehicles at the Ganqimaodu Port was 570, a decrease of 43.95% compared to the average daily number in October, and it is expected to gradually recover next week [6]. - **Cement**: In the fourth quarter, the intensity of staggered production in the cement industry has increased, and the monthly average kiln shutdown in some areas exceeds 20 days. Recently, cement prices in many places have shown an upward trend [6]. - **Steel Inventory**: In mid-October, the social inventory of steel products in 21 cities was 9.36 million tons, a decrease of 100,000 tons from the previous period, a decline of 1.1%. The inventory fluctuated slightly [7]. - **Coking Coal**: The utilization rate of the approved production capacity of 523 coking coal mine samples was 85.1%, a decrease of 2.3% from the previous period. The daily average output of raw coal was 1.91 million tons, a decrease of 51,000 tons from the previous period [7]. - **Rebar**: As of the week of October 23, rebar production increased from a decline, and the factory and social inventories decreased for two consecutive weeks, while the apparent demand increased for two consecutive weeks [7]. - **Iron Ore Production**: In the third quarter of 2025, the iron ore output of Fortescue Metals Group was 50.8 million tons, a decrease of 7% from the previous quarter and an increase of 6% from the same period last year [8]. - **Global Steel Production**: In September 2025, global crude steel production decreased by 1.6% year-on-year to 141.8 million tons. China's steel production was 73.49 million tons, a year-on-year decrease of 4.6% [8]. - **Glass Inventory**: As of October 23, the total inventory of national float glass sample enterprises was 66.613 million heavy boxes, an increase of 2.337 million heavy boxes or 3.64% from the previous period, an increase for three consecutive weeks after the festival, reaching a three-month high [8].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating The report does not provide an industry investment rating. 2. Core Views - Gold is expected to be volatile and weak in the short - term, fluctuate at a high level in the medium - term, and rise step - by - step in the long - term. The price trend of gold is the anchor for the price of silver. [1] - For both gold and silver, the strategy is that conservative investors should wait and see, while aggressive investors can buy low and sell high. Position management should be done well, and strict stop - loss and take - profit should be implemented. [2][6] 3. Summary by Relevant Contents Gold Core Logic - Short - term risk aversion: Sino - US may meet, easing trade war risks; US economic stagflation risks increase, employment weakens, inflation is moderate, and the Fed's interest - rate cut expectations are being realized. - Risk - aversion attributes: Trump cancelled his meeting with Putin, complaining that negotiations were at a deadlock; European leaders issued a joint statement supporting a cease - fire in the Russia - Ukraine conflict through negotiations; Trump said a 100% tariff on China was unsustainable. - Monetary attributes: Fed Chairman Powell hinted that officials might stop shrinking the balance sheet in the coming months; Fed Governor Waller warned that US employment growth might have turned negative in the past few months; the Fed's Beige Book showed that US economic activity had hardly changed recently, but there were signs of cooling consumption; the Fed cut interest rates by 25 basis points in September and hinted at further cuts. The market expects a 90% probability of a 25 - basis - point rate cut in October and about 2 more rate cuts this year. The US dollar index and US Treasury yields are oscillating strongly. - Commodity attributes: The CRB commodity index is oscillating downward, and the appreciation of the RMB is negative for domestic prices. [1] Gold - related Data - International prices: Comex gold's main contract closed at $4116.60 per ounce, down $21.90 (- 0.53%) from the previous day and $108.30 (- 2.56%) from the previous week; London gold closed at $4070.00 per ounce, down $99.60 (- 2.39%) from the previous day and $134.60 (- 3.20%) from the previous week. - Domestic prices: The main contract of Shanghai gold closed at 942.28 yuan per gram, down 10.28 yuan (- 1.08%) from the previous day and 24.14 yuan (- 2.50%) from the previous week; gold T + D closed at 940.14 yuan per gram, down 8.70 yuan (- 0.92%) from the previous day and 27.15 yuan (- 2.81%) from the previous week. - Other data: The gold - silver ratio (London gold/London silver) was 85.22, up 2.32 (2.79%) from the previous day and 5.26 (6.58%) from the previous week; the gold - copper ratio (Comex gold/Comex copper) was 8.22, down 0.13 (- 1.57%) from the previous day and 0.27 (- 3.21%) from the previous week; the gold - oil ratio (Comex gold/WTI crude oil) was 69.33, down 2.55 (- 3.54%) from the previous day and 3.14 (- 4.34%) from the previous week. [2] Futures Company Member Net Positions in Shanghai Gold - Among the top 10 net - long positions, the top 5 totaled 69,265.00, an increase of 1,459.00 (19.21%); the top 10 totaled 99,490.00, an increase of 369.00 (27.60%); the top 20 totaled 121,427.00, a decrease of 2,459.00 (33.68%). - Among the top 10 net - short positions, the top 5 totaled 12,561.00, a decrease of 343.00 (3.48%); the top 10 totaled 16,710.00, a decrease of 773.00 (4.63%); the top 20 totaled 17,961.00, a decrease of 815.00 (4.98%). [3] Silver Core Logic The price trend of gold is the anchor for the price of silver. In terms of capital, CFTC silver net - long positions and iShare silver ETF slightly increased their positions. In terms of inventory, the recent visible inventory of silver slightly decreased. [5] Silver - related Data - International prices: Comex silver's main contract closed at $48.18 per ounce, up $0.02 (0.04%) from the previous day and down $4.35 (- 8.27%) from the previous week; London silver closed at $47.76 per ounce, down $2.19 (- 4.37%) from the previous day and $4.83 (- 9.18%) from the previous week. - Domestic prices: The main contract of Shanghai silver closed at 11,467.00 yuan per kilogram, up 63.00 yuan (0.55%) from the previous day and down 550.00 yuan (- 4.58%) from the previous week; silver T + D closed at 11,463.00 yuan per kilogram, up 82.00 yuan (0.72%) from the previous day and down 518.00 yuan (- 4.32%) from the previous week. - Other data: The visible inventory totaled 42,134 tons, down 87 tons (- 0.21%) from the previous day and 670 tons (- 1.56%) from the previous week. [6] Futures Company Member Net Positions in Shanghai Silver - Among the top 10 net - long positions, the top 5 totaled 105,851.00, an increase of 7,921.00 (14.02%); the top 10 totaled 137,439.00, an increase of 8,513.00 (18.21%); the top 20 totaled 168,854.00, an increase of 5,725.00 (22.37%). - Among the top 10 net - short positions, the top 5 totaled 35,243.00, an increase of 655.00 (4.67%); the top 10 totaled 53,998.00, an increase of 2,396.00 (7.15%); the top 20 totaled 72,007.00, an increase of 4,059.00 (9.54%). [7] Fundamental Key Data Federal Reserve Data - The upper limit of the federal funds target rate is 4.25%, down 0.25 from the previous value; the discount rate is 4.25%, down 0.25 from the previous value; the reserve balance interest rate (IORB) is 4.15%, down 0.25 from the previous value; the Fed's total assets are $6,647.249 billion, up $55.81 billion (0.00%) from the previous value; M2 (year - on - year) is 4.77%, down 0.06 from the previous value. [8] Other Key Data - The 10 - year US Treasury real yield is 2.25, down 0.06 (- 2.60%) from the previous day and 0.09 (- 3.85%) from the previous week; the US dollar index is 98.88, down 0.06 (- 0.06%) from the previous day and up 0.19 (0.19%) from the previous week; the US Treasury yield spread (3 - month - 10 - year) is 0.51, unchanged from the previous day and down 0.01 (- 1.85%) from the previous week. [8] Inflation and Economic Data - US inflation data: CPI (year - on - year) is 2.90; CPI (month - on - month) is 0.30; core CPI (year - on - year) is 3.10; core CPI (month - on - month) is 0.30; PCE price index (year - on - year) is 2.74; core PCE price index (year - on - year) is 2.91. - US economic growth data: GDP (annualized year - on - year) is 2.00, down 0.30 from the previous value; GDP (annualized quarter - on - quarter) is 3.80, up 4.40 from the previous value; the unemployment rate is 4.30%, up 0.10 from the previous value. [10] Other Data - Central bank gold reserves: China's is 2,303.52 tons, up 3.11 tons (0.14%); the US's is 8,133.46 tons, unchanged; the world's is 36,268.07 tons, unchanged. - Geopolitical risk index is 250.95, up 96.88 (62.88%) from the previous value; VIX index is 18.47, down 0.13 (- 0.70%) from the previous day and 6.84 (- 27.02%) from the previous week; CRB commodity index is 297.93, up 2.52 (0.85%) from the previous day and 4.08 (1.39%) from the previous week; the offshore RMB is 7.1270, up 0.0002 (0.00%) from the previous value. [11] Fed's Latest Interest - Rate Expectations The probability of different interest - rate ranges at each Fed meeting from October 2025 to September 2027 is provided, showing the market's expectations for the Fed's interest - rate decisions over time. [12]

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content found Group 2: Core Viewpoints of the Report - For the screw - thread and hot - rolled coil, the apparent demand rebounded last week but was weaker than the same period last year. The holiday factor led to an increase in building material inventory, and the slow decline in total inventory suppressed the futures price. The spot prices of coking coal and coke were strong, providing cost support. However, due to the significant decline in steel mill profits, steel mills may reduce production, potentially triggering a negative feedback cycle. Technically, if the futures prices of screw - thread and hot - rolled coil continue to rise, it means the end of the downward trend [2]. - For iron ore, the high iron - making output of sample steel mills supports the demand for iron ore. But the decline in steel mill profits may lead to production cuts, suppressing raw material prices. On the supply side, global shipments are at a high level, and the increase in port inventory during the consumption peak suppresses the futures price. The slow reduction of steel inventory also dampens market sentiment. Technically, the 01 contract has rebounded slightly, and it is necessary to pay attention to whether it can break through the 60 - day and 10 - day moving averages [4]. Group 3: Summary by Relevant Catalogs 1. Screw - thread and Hot - Rolled Coil - **Supply and demand**: Apparent demand rebounded last week but was weaker than last year. Holiday led to inventory increase, slow total inventory decline, and cost supported by strong coking coal and coke. Steel mill profit decline may lead to production cuts [2]. - **Technical analysis**: Futures prices of screw - thread and hot - rolled coil have rebounded above the 10 - day moving average. Continued rise means the end of the downward trend [2]. - **Operation suggestions**: Hold short positions lightly. Stop profit if there is a sharp and rapid decline. Exit during the subsequent correction if the futures price continues to rebound [2]. - **Data summary**: - **Prices**: Screw - thread steel and hot - rolled coil futures and spot prices increased. For example, the closing price of the screw - thread steel main contract was 3068 yuan/ton, up 1.12% from last week [3]. - **Basis and spreads**: Most basis and spreads changed, such as the screw - thread steel main basis decreased by 14 yuan/ton compared to last week [3]. - **Production**: The output of screw - thread steel and hot - rolled coil decreased. The national building materials steel mill screw - thread steel output was 201.16 million tons, down 1.10% from last week [3]. - **Inventory**: The social inventory of hot - rolled coil increased by 3.66%, while the social and mill inventories of screw - thread steel decreased [3]. - **Apparent demand**: The apparent demand of the five major varieties increased by 19.03% [3]. 2. Iron Ore - **Supply and demand**: High iron - making output supports demand, but profit decline may lead to production cuts and price suppression. Global shipments are high, and port inventory increase suppresses the futures price [4]. - **Technical analysis**: The 01 contract has rebounded slightly, and attention should be paid to whether it can break through the 60 - day and 10 - day moving averages [4]. - **Data summary**: - **Prices**: Most iron ore spot and futures prices changed. For example, the settlement price of the DCE iron ore main contract was 774 yuan/dry ton, up 0.58% from the previous day [5]. - **Basis and spreads**: The basis and futures month - to - month spreads changed, such as the DCE iron ore futures 9 - 1 spread was - 41.5 yuan/dry ton, down 1.5 yuan from the previous day [5]. - **Shipments and arrivals**: Australian and Brazilian iron ore shipments increased. The northern six - port arrival volume decreased by 15.48% [5]. - **Inventory**: Port inventory increased by 1.81%, while the sintered powder ore inventory of 64 sample steel mills decreased by 2.82% [5]. 3. Industry News - In Wuhai and Qipanjing, most open - pit coal mines are shut down due to slope management and resource restructuring. Environmental inspections are strict, and coal shipments are restricted, but the impact on production is small [6]. - Some steel mills in Northeast China resumed production in October, but the winter production enthusiasm is low. The current daily output in Northeast China has decreased by 4.4 million tons [6]. - All 4.3 - meter coke ovens in Inner Mongolia were shut down by December 31, 2024, with a total coking capacity of 55.7 million tons [7]. - Inner Mongolia requires all cement clinker production lines to implement off - peak production from November 1, 2025, to March 31, 2026 [7]. - Vale's iron ore production in Q3 2025 was 94.4 million tons, a 12.9% quarter - on - quarter increase and a 3.8% year - on - year increase. Sales were 86 million tons, up 11.21% quarter - on - quarter and 5.1% year - on - year [7]. - As of the week ending October 22, the national key steel product output increased by 0.77 million tons, the factory inventory decreased by 7.84 million tons, the social inventory decreased by 14.88 million tons, and the apparent demand increased by 33.17 million tons [7].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - Today, precious metals tumbled and then fluctuated weakly. The main contract of Shanghai Gold closed down 3.92%, and the main contract of Shanghai Silver closed down 3.86%. The short - term safe - haven situation has changed: Sino - US may hold a meeting, easing the risk of a trade war; the risk of stagflation in the US economy has increased, employment has weakened, inflation is moderate, and the Fed's interest - rate cut expectations are being realized. The safe - haven attribute shows that European leaders issued a joint statement supporting a cease - fire in the Russia - Ukraine conflict through negotiations, Trump said a 100% tariff on China was unsustainable, and the US Treasury Secretary expected a Sino - US meeting in Malaysia soon to prevent tariff escalation. In terms of the monetary attribute, Fed Chair Powell hinted at a possible halt to balance - sheet shrinkage in the coming months, Fed Governor Waller warned of possible negative employment growth, the Fed cut rates by 25 basis points in September and signaled further cuts, the ADP employment decreased by 32,000 in September, far below expectations, and the market expects a 90% probability of a 25 - basis - point rate cut in October and about 2 rate cuts this year. The US dollar index and US Treasury yields fluctuated weakly. Regarding the commodity attribute, the CRB commodity index trended down, and the RMB appreciation was negative for domestic prices. It is expected that precious metals will fluctuate weakly in the short term, oscillate at high levels in the medium term, and climb in steps in the long term [1]. - The gold price trend is the anchor for the silver price. In terms of the capital side, the net long position of CFTC silver and the iShare silver ETF slightly increased. In terms of inventory, the recent visible inventory of silver slightly decreased [5]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Gold - **Market Performance**: The main contract of Shanghai Gold closed down 3.92%, and the main contract of Shanghai Silver closed down 3.86%. International and domestic gold prices generally declined, with the Comex gold main - contract closing price at $4138.50 per ounce, down $235.80 (-5.39%); the London gold at $4169.60 per ounce, down $124.75 (-2.90%); the Shanghai Gold main - contract closing price at 952.56 yuan per gram, down 41.50 yuan (-4.17%); and the gold T + D closing price at 948.84 yuan per gram, down 38.05 yuan (-3.86%) [1][2]. - **Analysis of Influencing Factors**: Short - term safe - haven factors include Sino - US potential meetings and trade - war risk mitigation; safe - haven attributes involve geopolitical events; the monetary attribute is affected by Fed policies and employment data; the commodity attribute is related to the CRB index and RMB exchange rate [1]. - **Strategy**: For conservative investors, it is recommended to wait and see; for aggressive investors, high - selling and low - buying are advised. Good position management and strict stop - loss and take - profit are necessary [2]. Silver - **Market Performance**: International and domestic silver prices declined. The Comex silver main - contract closing price was $48.16 per ounce, down $3.24 (-6.30%); the London silver was $49.95 per ounce, down $1.86 (-3.58%); the Shanghai Silver main - contract closing price was 11,404 yuan per kilogram, down 401 yuan (-3.40%); and the silver T + D closing price was 11,381 yuan per kilogram, down 378 yuan (-3.21%) [6]. - **Analysis of Influencing Factors**: The gold price trend is the anchor for the silver price. The capital side shows a slight increase in the net long position of CFTC silver and the iShare silver ETF, and the inventory side shows a slight decrease in visible inventory [5]. - **Strategy**: Similar to the gold strategy, conservative investors should wait and see, and aggressive investors can engage in high - selling and low - buying. Position management and stop - loss and take - profit are essential [6]. Fundamental Key Data - **Fed - Related Data**: The upper limit of the federal funds target rate is 4.25%, the discount rate is 4.25%, the reserve balance rate (IORB) is 4.15%, the Fed's total assets are $66472.49 billion, M2 year - on - year growth is 4.77%, the 10 - year US Treasury real yield is 2.27, the US dollar index is 98.94, and the US Treasury yield spread (3 - month to 10 - year) is 0.51 [8]. - **Other Key Indicators**: Various data such as the US Treasury yield spread (2 - year to 10 - year), inflation data (CPI, PCE), economic growth data (GDP), labor - market data, real - estate market data, consumption data, industrial data, trade data, and economic survey data are provided. Central bank gold reserves for China, the US, and the world, as well as IMF foreign - exchange reserve ratios, are also included [10][12].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - Gold prices are affected by multiple factors. In the short - term, there is a possibility of a meeting between China and the US, which eases trade - war risks. The risk of stagflation in the US economy is increasing, with weakening employment and moderate inflation, and the Fed's expectation of interest - rate cuts is being realized. The Fed may stop shrinking its balance sheet in the coming months, and the market expects the Fed to cut interest rates by 25 basis points in October with a probability of over 90%, and about 2 more cuts within the year. It is expected that precious metals will be weakly volatile in the short - term, highly volatile in the medium - term, and will rise step - by - step in the long - term [2]. - The trend of gold prices is the anchor for silver prices. In terms of the capital side, CFTC silver net long positions and iShare silver ETF have slightly increased their positions. In terms of inventory, the recent explicit inventory of silver has slightly decreased [6]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Gold - **Market Performance**: Today, precious metals rose first and then fell. The main contract of Shanghai Gold closed up 2.02%, and the main contract of Shanghai Silver closed up 0.20% [2]. - **Core Logic**: - **Short - term Hedging**: There may be a meeting between China and the US, easing trade - war risks. The risk of stagflation in the US economy is increasing, with weakening employment and moderate inflation, and the Fed's expectation of interest - rate cuts is being realized [2]. - **Hedging Attribute**: Trump said that imposing a 100% tariff on China is unsustainable. The US Treasury Secretary expects China and the US to meet in Malaysia soon to prevent tariff escalation [2]. - **Monetary Attribute**: Fed Chairman Powell hinted that officials may stop shrinking the balance sheet in the coming months. Fed Governor Waller warned that US employment growth may have turned negative in the past few months. The Fed's Beige Book shows that US economic activity has hardly changed recently, but there are signs of cooling consumption. The Fed cut interest rates by 25 basis points in September and hinted at further rate cuts. The ADP employment in September decreased by 32,000, far lower than the market - expected increase of 51,000. The market expects the Fed to cut interest rates by 25 basis points in October with a probability of over 90%, and about 2 more cuts within the year. The US dollar index is oscillating strongly, and the US Treasury yield is oscillating weakly [2]. - **Commodity Attribute**: The CRB commodity index is oscillating downward, and the appreciation of the RMB is negative for domestic prices [2]. - **Strategy**: Conservative investors should wait and see, while aggressive investors can buy low and sell high. It is recommended to manage positions well and set strict stop - loss and take - profit levels [3]. - **Data Summary**: - **International Prices**: Comex gold main - contract closing price is $4374.30 per ounce, up 2.49% from the previous day and 5.92% from the previous week; London gold is $4294.35 per ounce, up 1.65% from the previous day and 4.84% from the previous week [3]. - **Domestic Prices**: The closing price of the main Shanghai Gold contract on the SHFE is 994.06 yuan per gram, up 2.45% from the previous day and 5.87% from the previous week; the closing price of Gold T + D on the SGE is 986.89 yuan per gram, up 1.35% from the previous day and 4.99% from the previous week [3]. - **Positions and Inventories**: Comex gold positions are 528,789 lots, unchanged from the previous week; Shanghai Gold main - contract positions on the SHFE are 205,110 lots, down 1.35% from the previous day and 10.22% from the previous week; Gold T + D positions on the SGE are 254,754 lots, down 1.35% from the previous day and up 8.81% from the previous week. LBMA gold inventory is 8,598 tons, unchanged; Comex gold inventory is 1,152 tons, down 1.08% from the previous week; Shanghai Gold inventory on the SHFE is 18 tons, up 1.32% from the previous week [3]. Silver - **Core Logic**: The trend of gold prices is the anchor for silver prices. In terms of the capital side, CFTC silver net long positions and iShare silver ETF have slightly increased their positions. In terms of inventory, the recent explicit inventory of silver has slightly decreased [6]. - **Strategy**: Conservative investors should wait and see, while aggressive investors can buy low and sell high. It is recommended to manage positions well and set strict stop - loss and take - profit levels [7]. - **Data Summary**: - **International Prices**: Comex silver main - contract closing price is $51.40 per ounce, up 1.53% from the previous day and 1.23% from the previous week; London silver is $51.80 per ounce, down 4.25% from the previous day and up 1.09% from the previous week [7]. - **Domestic Prices**: The closing price of the main Shanghai Silver contract on the SHFE is 11,805 yuan per kilogram, up 0.54% from the previous day and 2.36% from the previous week; the closing price of Silver T + D on the SGE is 11,759 yuan per kilogram, down 0.17% from the previous day and up 1.99% from the previous week [7]. - **Positions and Inventories**: Comex silver positions are 165,805 lots, unchanged from the previous week; Shanghai Silver main - contract positions on the SHFE are 6,368,310 lots, down 1.87% from the previous day and 9.22% from the previous week; Silver T + D positions on the SGE are 3,977,852 lots, up 3.84% from the previous day and 19.60% from the previous week. LBMA silver inventory is 24,581 tons, down 0.26% from the previous week; Comex silver inventory is 15,751 tons, down 2.64% from the previous week; Shanghai Silver inventory on the SHFE is 749 tons, down 29.51% from the previous week; silver inventory on the SGE is 1,051 tons, down 5.18% from the previous week; the total explicit inventory is 42,303 tons, down 1.70% from the previous week [7]. Fundamental Key Data - **Monetary Attribute**: The federal funds target rate upper limit is 4.25%, the discount rate is 4.25%, the reserve balance interest rate (IORB) is 4.15%, the Fed's total assets are $6,647.249 billion, M2 year - on - year growth is 4.77%, the 10 - year US Treasury real yield is 2.31%, the US dollar index is 98.59, the US Treasury yield spread (3 - month to 10 - year) is 0.51, etc [9]. - **Other Attributes**: The geopolitical risk index is 250.95, up 52.15% from the previous day and 36.05% from the previous week; the VIX index is 18.67, up 2.41% from the previous day and down 10.28% from the previous week; the CRB commodity index is 296.49, up 1.07% from the previous day and 0.67% from the previous week; the offshore RMB exchange rate is 7.1257, down 0.22% from the previous week [12].

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content Group 2: Core Views of the Report - The upcoming Sino-US trade consultations have improved market risk appetite. However, the apparent demand for steel products has recovered but remains weaker than the same period last year. High raw material prices and slow inventory decline are suppressing steel prices. The decline in steel mill profits may lead to production cuts and a negative feedback loop. Technically, the prices of rebar and hot-rolled coils have broken below the lower Bollinger Band, facing significant pressure from the 10-day moving average [2]. - Sino-US trade tensions have eased, but the anti-competition policy has had a bearish impact on raw materials. High iron ore supply, slow inventory reduction in the steel market, and potential production cuts by steel mills due to profit decline are putting pressure on iron ore prices. Technically, the 01 contract has broken downward, indicating a possible strong downward trend [4]. Group 3: Summary by Relevant Catalogs 1. Rebar and Hot-Rolled Coils - **Market News**: Sino-US trade consultations are to be held this week, improving market risk appetite [2]. - **Supply and Demand**: Apparent demand has recovered but is weaker than last year. Festival factors have led to an increase in building material inventory, and the slow decline in total inventory is suppressing prices. High raw material costs support prices, but the decline in steel mill profits may lead to production cuts [2]. - **Technical Analysis**: Rebar and hot-rolled coil futures prices have broken below the lower Bollinger Band, with significant pressure from the 10-day moving average after a short-term rebound [2]. - **Operation Suggestion**: Hold short positions lightly and take profits promptly if there is a rapid and significant decline [2]. - **Data Summary**: - **Prices**: Rebar and hot-rolled coil futures and spot prices have fluctuated. The basis and spreads have also changed [2]. - **Production**: The blast furnace operating rate and daily iron output of 247 steel mills have decreased slightly. The production of rebar and hot-rolled coils has declined, while the productivity of independent electric arc furnace steel mills has increased significantly [2]. - **Inventory**: The social inventory of five major steel products has decreased slightly, with a decrease in rebar inventory and an increase in hot-rolled coil inventory. The steel mill inventory of five major steel products has decreased significantly [2]. - **Apparent Demand**: The apparent demand for five major steel products has increased significantly [2]. 2. Iron Ore - **Market News**: Sino-US trade tensions have eased, but the anti-competition policy has had a bearish impact on raw materials [4]. - **Supply and Demand**: High iron ore supply, slow inventory reduction in the steel market, and potential production cuts by steel mills due to profit decline are putting pressure on iron ore prices [4]. - **Technical Analysis**: The 01 contract has broken downward, indicating a possible strong downward trend [4]. - **Operation Suggestion**: Hold short positions [4]. - **Data Summary**: - **Prices**: Iron ore spot and futures prices have declined. The basis and spreads have changed [4]. - **Supply**: Overseas iron ore shipments have increased, while the arrival volume and daily average port clearance volume have decreased. Port inventory has increased [4]. - **Demand**: The inventory of imported sintered powder ore in 64 sample steel mills has decreased [4]. 3. Industry News - The transfer fee of residential land in 300 cities increased by 12% year-on-year in the first three quarters, but the transaction area decreased by 8%. The land market cooled in the third quarter, with the average premium rate dropping to 5.8%, and the transaction area and transfer fee decreasing by 13% and 10% respectively [6]. - China's coal imports from Mongolia reached a record high in September, with imports of 9.29 million tons, a year-on-year increase of 33% [6]. - From October 13th to 19th, 2025, the global iron ore shipment volume was 33.335 million tons, a month-on-month increase of 1.26 million tons. The shipment volume from Australia and Brazil was 28.25 million tons, a month-on-month increase of 0.94 million tons [6]. - In September 2025, China's crude steel production was 73.49 million tons, a year-on-year decrease of 4.6%; pig iron production was 66.05 million tons, a year-on-year decrease of 2.4%; steel production was 124.21 million tons, a year-on-year increase of 5.1% [7]. - From October 20th, coal mines in Shanyin County, Shuozhou City will be shut down, involving a total production capacity of 34 million tons, and are expected to resume normal production on October 24th [8]. - From October 13th to 19th, 2025, Tangshan's steel mills will implement production control, and the expected operating rate of 29 sample steel mills will drop to 33%, with a daily output impact of about 50,000 tons [7]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The long - term bull market of treasury bond futures is entering the end (high - level oscillation stage), and there is a possibility of a mid - term upward rush [7]. - The mid - term adjustment of the bond bull market is over, and it is expected to resume its upward trend [8]. - Positive factors in the macro - economy are gradually accumulating, which may indicate the end of the current bond bull market [82]. - Treasury bond futures still have a large possibility of rising in the fourth quarter, and the long - term bull market may have entered the end, but there is no consensus on the duration of the high - level oscillation [98]. 3. Summary According to the Directory 2.1 Current Macroeconomic Situation - **Industrial Production**: Except for the automobile industry, the growth rate of major industrial product output remains low. There are rumors that the automobile purchase tax will be restored in 2026, which will put pressure on automobile sales [15]. - **Fixed - Asset Investment**: The growth rate of fixed - asset investment continues to decline, and the decline trend has accelerated. Stronger policies may be introduced to boost investment [16][19]. - **Real Estate Market**: The real estate market is still in the process of bottom - building. The data reflecting the scale of real - estate under construction has returned to the 2007 level, and housing prices are still falling month - on - month. The demand for "real - estate speculation" among residents is almost non - existent [20][23]. - **Retail Sales**: The growth rate of total retail sales of consumer goods has declined, and consumer confidence is hovering at a low level. The reasons are the weakening of income and income expectations and the high level of household leverage [24][28]. - **Inflation**: Inflation remains weak. Downstream commodity consumption is poor, while service consumption such as tourism performs better than expected. The downward pressure on producer prices is more obvious [29][31]. - **Unemployment**: Unemployment has seasonally increased with the entry of college graduates into the labor market, and the cumulative year - on - year growth of newly - added urban employment has flattened, indicating high employment pressure [37][39]. - **Manufacturing PMI**: The manufacturing PMI continues to be weak. Among the PMI sub - items, production and the purchase price of major raw materials are above the boom - bust line, while other sub - items are below it [40][42]. - **Production and Inventory**: Production is stronger than demand, and inventories are increasing [43][46]. - **Construction and Service PMI**: The PMI of the construction industry and its important sub - items are at a low level in recent years, indicating the industry's downturn [47][49]. 2.2 Positive Factors in the Macroeconomy - **Fiscal Policy**: Fiscal policy remains loose. The government still has room to increase leverage, and the loose fiscal policy is expected to last for a long time. Various consumption subsidies will continue [51][53]. - **Industrial Profits**: The profits of industrial enterprises above designated size have improved month - on - month. The cumulative year - on - year growth rate of the total profits of industrial enterprises above designated size from January to August has turned positive, and the year - on - year growth rate in August was 20% [54][56]. - **Automobile Industry**: The production and export of automobiles continue to increase. In the first nine months of this year, China exported 1.758 million new - energy vehicles, a year - on - year increase of 89.4%, and the total automobile exports increased by 14.8% to 4.95 million [58][64]. - **Excavator Industry**: The production and sales of excavators have improved, mainly due to the low - base effect, but there is still a large gap compared with the peak period [65][68]. - **Stock Market and Commodity Market**: When the M1 - M2 spread turns positive, PPI is also expected to turn positive. The stock market may be accompanied by a commodity bull market. Residents are starting to allocate more assets to the stock market [72][74]. - **Export**: Export performance is relatively good. The growth rate of imports and exports is better than expected. The supply - chain advantage is strengthening, and products such as automobiles and chips have strong export performance. Chip exports are increasing at a faster rate [75][81]. 3. Factors Affecting Treasury Bond Futures - **Exchange Rate**: Overseas funds are increasingly concerned about A - shares, causing the RMB to face more appreciation pressure than depreciation pressure. The US dollar is under downward pressure, and bank settlement and sales of foreign exchange have turned into a surplus, which is generally favorable for the A - share market [85][88]. - **Monetary Policy**: The 7 - day reverse repurchase rate has remained low for a long time, and the money market is expected to remain loose. The Fed's interest rate cuts provide room for domestic interest rate cuts, and there is still room for future interest rate cuts [93][96]. 4. Analysis of Treasury Bond Futures Market - **Seasonal Pattern**: According to the seasonal pattern of the past 10 years, the probability of treasury bond futures rising from November to December is high, with the probability reaching 67% in November and 89% in December [99][101]. - **Adjustment Period**: The treasury bond futures have been adjusted for more than half a year, indicating a possible market reversal or the end of the bull market [103][104]. - **Yield Comparison**: In the long - and medium - term, the yields of treasury bonds are significantly negatively correlated with the stock market and industrial product prices [106][108]. - **Conclusion and Suggestions**: The bull market of treasury bond futures may have entered the end, or it may have reversed or entered a high - level oscillation. In the fourth quarter, factors such as the Sino - US trade friction and expected interest rate cuts support the market. It is recommended to buy treasury bond futures at low prices and hold them until December or January next year [111].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - Today, precious metals declined from high levels, with the main contract of Shanghai gold closing down 1.63% and the main contract of Shanghai silver closing down 3.99%. [1] - In the short - term, regarding safe - haven aspects, there may be a meeting between China and the US, easing trade - war risks. The risk of stagflation in the US economy is increasing, employment is weakening, and inflation is moderate. The expectation of the Fed's interest - rate cuts is starting to materialize. [1] - In terms of the safe - haven attribute, Trump said that imposing a 100% tariff on China is unsustainable. The US Treasury Secretary expects China and the US to meet in Malaysia soon to prevent tariff escalation. [1] - In terms of the monetary attribute, Fed Chairman Powell hinted that officials may stop shrinking the balance sheet in the next few months. Fed Governor Waller warned that US employment growth may have turned negative in the past few months. The Fed's Beige Book shows that US economic activity has hardly changed recently, but signs of cooling consumption are emerging. The Fed cut interest rates by 25 basis points in September and hinted at further cuts. The ADP employment decreased by 32,000 in September, far lower than the market - expected increase of 51,000. Currently, the market expects a 25 - basis - point interest - rate cut by the Fed in October with a probability of around 90%, and the expected number of interest - rate cuts within the year is still about 2 times. The US dollar index and US Treasury yields are oscillating strongly. [1] - In terms of the commodity attribute, the CRB commodity index is oscillating downward, and the appreciation of the RMB is negative for domestic prices. [1] - It is expected that precious metals will oscillate weakly in the short term, oscillate at high levels in the medium term, and rise step - by - step in the long term. [1] - The price trend of gold is the anchor for the price of silver. In terms of capital, the net long position of CFTC silver and the iShare silver ETF have slightly increased their positions. In terms of inventory, the recent visible inventory of silver has slightly decreased. [4] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Gold - **Strategy**: Conservative investors should wait and see, while aggressive investors can buy low and sell high. It is recommended to manage positions well and set strict stop - losses and take - profits. [2] - **Data Summary**: - **International prices**: Comex gold's main - contract closing price is $4224.90 per ounce, up 1.57% from the previous day and 4.05% from the previous week; London gold is $4204.60 per ounce, up 1.90% from the previous day and 4.07% from the previous week. [2] - **Domestic prices**: The closing price of Shanghai gold's main contract is 970.32 yuan per gram, down 2.95% from the previous day and up 4.61% from the previous week; the closing price of gold T + D is 973.70 yuan per gram, down 2.23% from the previous day and up 5.10% from the previous week. [2] - **Basis, spreads, and ratios**: The difference between Shanghai gold's main contract and London gold is 5.71 yuan per gram, down 87% from the previous day and down 215% from the previous week; the gold - to - silver ratio (London gold/London silver) is 77.72, down 0.22% from the previous day and down 2.35% from the previous week. [2] - **Positions and inventories**: Comex gold positions are 528,789 lots; Shanghai gold's main - contract positions are 207,916 lots, down 6.43% from the previous day and down 13.37% from the previous week; gold T + D positions are 258,232 lots, up 1.27% from the previous day and up 12.76% from the previous week. LBMA gold inventory is 8,598 tons; Comex gold inventory is 1,152 tons, unchanged from the previous day and down 1.08% from the previous week. [2] 3.2 Silver - **Strategy**: Conservative investors should wait and see, while aggressive investors can buy low and sell high. It is recommended to manage positions well and set strict stop - losses and take - profits. [5] - **Data Summary**: - **International prices**: Comex silver's main - contract closing price is $50.63 per ounce, down 5.25% from the previous day and up 6.55% from the previous week; London silver is $54.10 per ounce, up 2.04% from the previous day and up 6.58% from the previous week. [5] - **Domestic prices**: The closing price of Shanghai silver's main contract is 11,742 yuan per kilogram, down 4.14% from the previous day and up 1.83% from the previous week; the closing price of silver T + D is 11,779 yuan per kilogram, down 3.67% from the previous day and up 2.85% from the previous week. [5] - **Basis and spreads**: The difference between Shanghai silver's main contract and London silver is - 653.17 yuan per gram, down 744.93% from the previous day and up 479.09% from the previous week; the basis of Shanghai silver's main contract is 37 yuan per kilogram. [5] - **Positions and inventories**: Comex silver positions are 165,805 lots; Shanghai silver's main - contract positions are 6,489,945 lots, down 8.17% from the previous day and down 12.70% from the previous week; silver T + D positions are 3,830,738 lots, up 5.73% from the previous day and up 20.97% from the previous week. The total visible inventory is 42,538 tons, down 0.58% from the previous day and down 1.32% from the previous week. [5] 3.3 Fundamental Key Data - **Fed - related data**: The upper limit of the federal funds target rate is 4.25%, the discount rate is 4.25%, the interest rate on reserve balances (IORB) is 4.15%, and the Fed's total assets are $6,647.249 billion, up 0.00% from the previous number. [7] - **Economic data**: The year - on - year growth rate of M2 is 4.77%, the real yield of the 10 - year US Treasury is 2.32%, the US dollar index is 98.55, the yield spread between 3 - month and 10 - year US Treasuries is 0.54, and the yield spread between 2 - year and 10 - year US Treasuries is - 0.02. [7][10] - **Inflation data**: The year - on - year CPI is 2.90%, the core CPI year - on - year is 3.10%, and the PCE price index year - on - year is 2.74%. [10] - **Other data**: The NAHB housing - market index is 37.00, up 15.63% from the previous number; new - home sales are 660,000 units, up 15.15% from the previous number; the retail - sales year - on - year growth rate is 3.76%. [10] - **Central - bank gold reserves**: China's central - bank gold reserve is 2,303.52 tons, up 0.14% from the previous number; the US's is 8,133.46 tons, unchanged; the world's is 36,268.07 tons, unchanged. [11] - **Other indicators**: The geopolitical - risk index is 259.24, the VIX index is 20.40, the CRB commodity index is 293.35, and the offshore RMB exchange rate is 7.1263. [11] 3.4 Fed's Latest Interest - Rate Expectations Based on the CME FedWatch tool, the market's expectations for the Fed's interest - rate range at different meetings from October 2025 to September 2027 are presented in a probability table, showing the changing probabilities of different interest - rate ranges at each meeting. [12]