投资咨询系列报告 山金期货黑色板块日报 一、螺纹、热卷 更新时间：2025年07月25日08时12分 报告导读： 政策面上，工信部将推出钢铁、石化、建材等十大重点行业稳增长工作方案 ，着力调结构、优供给、淘汰落后产能。另有消息称，国家能源局煤炭 司主导严查煤矿超产、整治行业内卷，焦煤连续涨停，对其他黑色板块品种有较强的带动作用 。供需方面，我的钢铁公布的数据显示，本周螺纹钢 产量、表需由降转增，厂库连续第二周减少，社库连续第二周增加。五大品种总库存有所上升，表观需求有所回落。从需求的季节性规律看，在暑 期高温天气，需求将进一步走弱，且库存预计将会进一步回升。目前市场是弱现实和强预期的博弈 ，强预期占主导，对宏观政策的乐观预期也有所 加强。从技术上看，期价大幅拉升后进入高位震荡 操作建议： 暂时维持观望，调整之后再逢低做多，短线操作。空仓的投资者谨慎追涨杀跌 报告导读： 请务必阅读文后重要声明 第 1 页，共 3 页 投资咨询系列报告 虽然期价大幅上涨，但现货价格涨幅相对较小，目前钢厂盈利率尚可，样本钢厂盈利面接近 60%，本周 247 家钢厂铁水产量 242.2 万吨，环比上周 下降了 0.1 万吨。目前市场 ...

投资咨询系列报告 山金期货贵金属策略报告 更新时间：2025年07月23日16时43分 一、黄金 报告导读： 今日贵金属震荡偏强，沪金主力收涨0.90%，沪银主力收涨1.16%。①核心逻辑，短期贸易战进入新阶段，经济衰退地缘异动风险 仍存；美国经济滞涨风险增加，就业通胀强劲压制降息预期。②避险属性方面，特朗普升级贸易战，欧美贸易协议前景堪忧，欧盟 酝酿动用"核选项"反制美国。美中下周在瑞典重启贸易会谈。③货币属性方面，美国经济数据走弱，独栋房屋开工降至11个月 最低水平，建筑许可也大幅减少。6月核心CPI同比上涨2.9%，环比上涨0.2%，均低于市场预期。目前市场预期美联储下次降息至 9月，预期25年总降息空间跌回50基点左右。美元指数和美债收益率承压回落；④商品属性方面，CRB商品指数反弹承压，人民币 偏强压制国内价格。⑤预计贵金属短期震荡偏强，中期高位震荡，长期阶梯上行。 投资咨询系列报告 二、白银 | | | | 数据类别 | 指标 | 单位 | 最新 | 较上日 | | 较上周/前值 | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 国际价 ...

Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided Core Viewpoints - The steel industry is currently in a state of weak reality versus strong expectations, with strong expectations prevailing due to positive macro - policy expectations. The demand for the sector is better than that of building materials, but is expected to weaken further during the summer heat, and inventory is likely to rise. In the short term, iron ore is expected to remain strong, supported by the rising prices of rebar, coking coal, and glass, but overall it is in a large - range oscillation [2][5] Summary by Directory 1. Rebar and Hot - Rolled Coil - **Policy and Market News**: The Ministry of Industry and Information Technology will introduce a stable - growth plan for ten key industries including steel, and the National Energy Administration is checking for over - production in coal mines, which led to the continuous limit - up of coking coal and a sharp rise in coke and other black - series products [2] - **Supply and Demand**: Last week, rebar production decreased, factory inventory declined, social inventory continued to rise, and total inventory increased. Apparent demand dropped month - on - month, indicating a situation of weak supply and demand. The demand for the sector is better than that of building materials, and it is expected to weaken further during the summer heat [2] - **Technical Analysis**: Futures prices have risen sharply, continuing the previous medium - term upward trend and showing a short - term strong performance [2] - **Operation Suggestion**: Temporarily maintain a wait - and - see stance, buy on dips after adjustments, and conduct short - term operations. Investors with empty positions should be cautious about chasing the rise [2] - **Data Summary**: - **Prices**: Rebar and hot - rolled coil futures and spot prices have increased. For example, the rebar main - contract closing price is 3307 yuan/ton, up 2.57% from the previous day and 6.20% from last week [2] - **Production**: National building - material steel mill rebar production is 209.06 million tons, down 3.51% from last week; hot - rolled coil production is 321.14 million tons, down 0.62% from last week [2] - **Inventory**: Five major steel product social inventory is 922.11 million tons, up 0.89% from last week; rebar social inventory is 370.16 million tons, up 2.97% from last week [2] 2. Iron Ore - **Supply and Demand**: Steel mill profitability is fair, with the profit - making steel mill ratio close to 60%. Last week, the molten iron output of 247 steel mills increased, but there is significant downward pressure in the near future as it is the consumption off - season. The global iron - ore shipment is at a relatively high level and rising seasonally. Port inventory is slowly decreasing, which supports futures prices, but port trade - ore inventory is relatively high [5] - **Technical Analysis**: Futures prices are rising strongly but are in a large - range oscillation overall [5] - **Operation Suggestion**: Temporarily maintain a wait - and - see stance, be cautious about chasing the rise, and wait patiently for a pull - back before buying on dips for short - term operations [5] - **Data Summary**: - **Prices**: Iron - ore spot and futures prices have increased. For example, the DCE iron - ore main - contract settlement price is 823 yuan/dry ton, up 1.73% from the previous day and 7.30% from last week [5] - **Shipment**: Australian iron - ore shipment is 1404.9 million tons, down 10.51% from last week; Brazilian iron - ore shipment is 833.2 million tons, up 17.37% from last week [5] - **Inventory**: Port total inventory is 13785.21 million tons, up 0.14% from last week; port trade - ore inventory is 9193.54 million tons, down 0.50% from last week [5] 3. Industry News - **Coal Industry**: The National Energy Administration will conduct a production check on coal mines in eight provinces (regions) to promote stable and orderly coal supply. This led to a limit - up in coking coal and a collective surge in the coal sector yesterday [7] - **Iron - Ore Inventory**: The total inventory of imported iron ore at 47 Chinese ports is 14388.56 million tons, an increase of 72.25 million tons from last Monday. Inventory in some regions has increased, while that in others has decreased slightly [8]

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints of the Report - Gold is expected to be volatile and bullish in the short - term, oscillate at a high level in the medium - term, and rise step - by - step in the long - term. The core logic is that the short - term trade war has entered a new stage, with risks of economic recession and geopolitical changes still existing. The risk of stagflation in the US economy has increased, and strong employment and inflation are suppressing the expectation of interest rate cuts. [1] - The price trend of gold is the anchor for the price of silver. In terms of capital, CFTC silver net long positions and iShare silver ETF have resumed adding positions. In terms of inventory, the recent visible inventory of silver has decreased slightly. [5] - For both gold and silver, the strategy is for conservative investors to wait and see, while aggressive investors can buy on dips. It is recommended to manage positions well and set strict stop - loss and take - profit levels. [2][6] Summary by Related Catalogs Gold Price Performance - International prices: Comex gold主力合约收盘价 is $3355.50 per ounce, up $10.10 (0.30%) from the previous day and down $14.80 (-0.44%) from the previous week. London gold is $3355.10 per ounce, up $36.60 (1.10%) from the previous day and up $3.00 (0.09%) from the previous week. - Domestic prices: The closing price of the Shanghai Gold Exchange's main contract is 781.70 yuan per gram, up 4.68 yuan (0.60%) from the previous day and up 0.30 yuan (0.04%) from the previous week. The closing price of gold T + D is 777.00 yuan per gram, up 3.63 yuan (0.47%) from the previous day and down 0.46 yuan (-0.06%) from the previous week. [2] Position and Inventory - Position: Comex gold position is 448,531 lots (100 ounces per lot), an increase of 10,869 lots (2.48%) from the previous week. The position of the Shanghai Gold Exchange's main contract is 211,239 lots (kilograms per lot), an increase of 8,952 lots (4.43%) from the previous day and an increase of 20,156 lots (10.55%) from the previous week. The position of gold TD is 205,042 lots (kilograms per lot), an increase of 590 lots (0.29%) from the previous day and a decrease of 9,956 lots (-4.63%) from the previous week. - Inventory: LBMA inventory is 8,598 tons, unchanged. Comex gold inventory is 1,152 tons, a decrease of 13 tons (-1.08%) from the previous week. The inventory of the Shanghai Gold Exchange is 18 tons, an increase of 0 tons (1.57%) from the previous day and an increase of 0 tons (1.32%) from the previous week. [2] Net Position Ranking of Futures Companies - Among the top 10 net long positions of futures companies on the Shanghai Futures Exchange, the top 5 total 110,442 lots, an increase of 2,896 lots (25.71%); the top 10 total 139,355 lots, an increase of 2,304 lots (32.44%); the top 20 total 167,690 lots, an increase of 4,891 lots (39.04%). - Among the top 10 net short positions of futures companies on the Shanghai Futures Exchange, the top 5 total 14,565 lots, an increase of 494 lots (3.39%); the top 10 total 20,464 lots, an increase of 560 lots (4.76%); the top 20 total 24,576 lots, an increase of 599 lots (5.72%). [3] Silver Price Performance - International prices: Comex silver's main contract closing price is $38.43 per ounce, down $0.01 (-0.03%) from the previous day and down $0.65 (-1.66%) from the previous week. London silver is $38.27 per ounce, up $0.52 (1.36%) from the previous day and up $0.77 (2.05%) from the previous week. - Domestic prices: The closing price of the Shanghai Silver Exchange's main contract is 9,271.00 yuan per kilogram, down 2.00 yuan (-0.02%) from the previous day and up 64.00 yuan (0.70%) from the previous week. The closing price of silver T + D is 9,226.00 yuan per kilogram, up 15.00 yuan (0.16%) from the previous day and up 54.00 yuan (0.59%) from the previous week. [6] Position and Inventory - Position: Comex silver position is 171,474 lots (5,000 ounces per lot), an increase of 8,671 lots (5.33%) from the previous week. The position of the Shanghai Silver Exchange's main contract is 7,013,010 lots (kilograms per lot), a decrease of 182,130 lots (-2.53%) from the previous day and an increase of 291,585 lots (4.34%) from the previous week. The position of silver TD is 3,370,304 lots (kilograms per lot), a decrease of 37,116 lots (-1.09%) from the previous day and an increase of 127,300 lots (3.93%) from the previous week. - Inventory: LBMA inventory is 23,791 tons, an increase of 424 tons (1.81%) from the previous week. Comex silver inventory is 15,464 tons, an increase of 17 tons (0.00%) from the previous day and an increase of 72 tons (0.47%) from the previous week. The inventory of the Shanghai Silver Exchange is 1,204 tons, a decrease of 20 tons (-1.59%) from the previous week. The total visible inventory is 41,793 tons, a decrease of 75 tons (-0.18%) from the previous day and a decrease of 20 tons (-0.05%) from the previous week. [6] Net Position Ranking of Futures Companies - Among the top 10 net long positions of futures companies on the Shanghai Futures Exchange, the top 5 total 127,796 lots, an increase of 1,152 lots (12.80%); the top 10 total 176,685 lots, an increase of 3,499 lots (17.70%); the top 20 total 235,618 lots, an increase of 2,698 lots (23.60%). - Among the top 10 net short positions of futures companies on the Shanghai Futures Exchange, the top 5 total 72,195 lots, a decrease of 890 lots (7.23%); the top 10 total 94,674 lots, an increase of 7 lots (9.48%); the top 20 total 118,304 lots, an increase of 462 lots (11.85%). [7] Fundamental Key Data Monetary Attributes - Federal funds target rate upper limit is 4.50%, a decrease of 0.25 percentage points. The discount rate is 4.50%, a decrease of 0.25 percentage points. The reserve balance interest rate (IORB) is 4.40%, a decrease of 0.25 percentage points. The total assets of the Federal Reserve are 6710.669 billion US dollars, a decrease of 25.67 billion US dollars (-0.00%). M2 year - on - year growth rate is 4.50%, an increase of 0.06 percentage points. [8] Other Key Indicators - 10 - year US Treasury real yield is 2.59%, a decrease of 0.02 percentage points (-0.77%) from the previous day and a decrease of 0.01 percentage points (-0.38%) from the previous week. The US dollar index is 98.47, a decrease of 0.17 points (-0.17%) from the previous day and an increase of 0.61 points (0.62%) from the previous week. The US Treasury yield spread (3 - month - 10 - year) is 0.52, an increase of 0.02 points (4.00%) from the previous day and unchanged from the previous week. [8] Inflation, Economic Growth, and Labor Market - US inflation indicators such as CPI, core CPI, PCE price index, and core PCE price index have shown certain changes. US economic growth indicators such as GDP, unemployment rate, and non - farm employment have also changed. The labor market indicators such as labor participation rate, average hourly wage growth rate, and weekly working hours have different trends. [10] Central Bank Gold Reserves and Other Data - Central bank gold reserves of China, the US, and the world have different situations. The proportion of the US dollar, euro, and RMB in IMF foreign exchange reserves has changed. The ratio of gold to foreign exchange reserves globally, in China, and in the US has also changed. [11] Risk and Market Indicators - The geopolitical risk index is 132.88, an increase of 24.41 points (22.50%) from the previous day and a decrease of 59.95 points (-31.09%) from the previous week. The VIX index is 16.83, an increase of 0.42 points (2.56%) from the previous day and a decrease of 0.37 points (-2.15%) from the previous week. The CRB commodity index is 304.79, a decrease of 1.33 points (-0.43%) from the previous day and an increase of 2.09 points (0.69%) from the previous week. The offshore RMB exchange rate is 7.1812, unchanged from the previous day and an increase of 0.0074 points (0.10%) from the previous week. [11] Fed Interest Rate Expectations - According to the CME FedWatch tool, the probability of different interest rate ranges at different Fed meeting dates from 2025/7/30 to 2026/12/9 is provided. [12]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided in the report 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The steel market is currently in a game between weak reality and strong expectations, with strong expectations prevailing. The policy of the Ministry of Industry and Information Technology to introduce a stable - growth work plan for ten key industries such as steel has boosted market sentiment, but the demand is in a seasonal weak period, and the inventory is expected to rise further [2]. - For iron ore, although it is in the consumption off - season and the iron - water output is expected to decline, the rising prices of related products such as rebar, coking coal, and glass will support the iron - ore price in the short term, and the decline in port inventory also provides support [4]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Rebar and Hot - Rolled Coil - **Policy and Market Sentiment**: The Ministry of Industry and Information Technology will introduce a stable - growth work plan for ten key industries, which has boosted market sentiment and led to a pulsed rise in futures prices [2]. - **Supply and Demand Situation**: The output of rebar decreased last week, the factory inventory decreased, the social inventory continued to rise, and the total inventory increased. The apparent demand decreased month - on - month, showing a situation of weak supply and demand. The demand for the plate sector is better than that for building materials. In the summer high - temperature season, demand will weaken further, and inventory is expected to rise [2]. - **Technical Analysis**: The futures price has risen sharply, continuing the previous medium - term upward trend and showing strong short - term performance [2]. - **Operation Suggestion**: Temporarily maintain a wait - and - see attitude. After adjustment, consider buying on dips, and be cautious about chasing high prices [2]. - **Data Summary**: - **Prices**: Rebar and hot - rolled coil futures and spot prices have increased to varying degrees, with the hot - rolled coil futures closing price rising by 3.60% week - on - week and the spot price rising by 3.64% [2]. - **Production**: The national building - material steel mill rebar output decreased by 3.51% week - on - week, and the hot - rolled coil output decreased by 0.62% week - on - week [2]. - **Inventory**: The social inventory of rebar increased by 2.97% week - on - week, and the factory inventory decreased by 4.30% week - on - week; the social inventory of hot - rolled coil decreased by 0.80% week - on - week, and the factory inventory decreased by 0.64% week - on - week [2]. 3.2 Iron Ore - **Supply and Demand Situation**: The profitability of steel mills is acceptable, and the iron - water output of 247 steel mills increased by 1.10% week - on - week last week. However, it is in the consumption off - season, and the iron - water output is expected to decline. The global iron - ore shipment is at a relatively high level and rising seasonally. The port inventory is slowly decreasing, which supports the futures price, but the port trade - ore inventory is relatively high [4]. - **Technical Analysis**: The futures price has risen strongly, breaking through the suppression of multiple resistance levels above [4]. - **Operation Suggestion**: Temporarily maintain a wait - and - see attitude, be cautious about chasing high prices, and wait patiently for the price to pull back before buying on dips [4]. - **Data Summary**: - **Prices**: Iron - ore spot and futures prices have increased, with the DCE iron - ore main - contract settlement price rising by 5.54% week - on - week [4]. - **Shipment**: The Australian iron - ore shipment decreased by 10.51% week - on - week, and the Brazilian iron - ore shipment increased by 17.37% week - on - week [4]. - **Inventory**: The port inventory decreased by 0.14% week - on - week, and the port trade - ore inventory decreased by 0.50% week - on - week [4]. 3.3 Industry News - From July 14th to July 20th, 2025, the total arrival volume of iron ore at 47 ports in China was 2511.8 million tons, a decrease of 371.4 million tons month - on - month; the total arrival volume at 45 ports was 2371.2 million tons, a decrease of 290.9 million tons month - on - month; the total arrival volume at six northern ports was 1389.2 million tons, an increase of 241.3 million tons month - on - month [7]. - From July 14th to July 20th, 2025, the global iron - ore shipment volume was 3109.1 million tons, an increase of 122.0 million tons month - on - month. The total shipment volume from Australia and Brazil was 2552.0 million tons, a decrease of 6.8 million tons month - on - month [7]. - On July 21st, the China Coking Industry Association Market Committee decided to raise the price of tamping wet - quenched coke by 50 yuan/ton and the price of tamping dry - quenched coke by 55 yuan/ton for steel - mill customers starting from July 22nd [7]. - In the third week of July 2025, Brazil's cumulative iron - ore loading volume was 2466.24 million tons, with a daily average loading volume of 176.16 million tons/day, a 3.21% increase compared to the same period last year [8].

报告导读： 消息面上，工信部将推出钢铁、石化、建材等十大重点行业稳增长工作方案 ，着力调结构、优供给、淘汰落后产能。该消息提振市场情绪，期价再 次出现了脉冲式上涨。供需方面，我的钢铁公布的数据显示，本周螺纹产量有所下降，厂库下降，社库继续回升，总库存上升，表观需求环比继续 回落，数据显示目前处于供需双弱的状态 。目前板块需求明显好于建材需求。从需求的季节性规律看，随着高温天气的到来，需求将进一步走弱， 且库存预计将会进一步回升。整体来看，目前市场交易的是弱现实和强预期 ，对政策的乐观预期也有所加强。从技术上看，期价止跌回升，延续了 之前的中期上行趋势，短线偏强运行。 操作建议： 暂时维持观望，调整之后可逢低做多，谨慎追涨， 投资咨询系列报告 山金期货黑色板块日报 一、螺纹、热卷 更新时间：2025年07月21日08时15分 请务必阅读文后重要声明 第 1 页，共 3 页 投资咨询系列报告 目前钢厂盈利率尚可，样本钢厂盈利面接近 60%，上周 247 家钢厂铁水产量 242.2 万吨，环比上周上升了 2.4 万吨。目前市场处于消费淡季，预计 近期铁水产量将有所回落。供应端，全球发运处于相对高位且在沿着季节性回升 ...

Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided in the report. Core Viewpoints - This week, precious metals showed a pattern of gold being weak and silver being strong, mainly due to the short - term high - level callback of safe - haven demand. The market has become dull to trade - war and Middle - East geopolitical risks. In terms of monetary attributes, strong employment and inflation in the US rule out the possibility of the Fed cutting interest rates in the near term. The Fed maintains a cautious attitude towards rate cuts due to internal disagreements. In terms of commodity attributes, there is still an expected supply - demand gap for silver, and industrial demand is expected to improve. Short - term precious metals are expected to fluctuate strongly. In the medium and long term, the increasing risk of economic recession may force the rate - cut logic to develop, and precious metals are expected to remain at a high level in the medium term and show a long - term upward trend [5]. - Gold jewelry consumption is restricted by high prices, but investment demand for gold bars offsets some of the impact. Central banks in emerging markets, including the People's Bank of China, are driving up gold - buying demand through their "de - dollarization" strategies. The World Silver Association expects the global silver supply - demand gap to narrow by 21% in 2025, to 117.6 million ounces (about 3658 tons) [2]. Summary by Directory 1. Risk - aversion Attribute - The trade war has entered a new stage, and there are continuous geopolitical changes in the Middle East, but the market has become dull to these two types of safe - haven factors [5]. - Trump once threatened to fire Powell but later clarified that he would "take no action for the time being", easing market concerns [5]. 2. Monetary Attribute - The Fed's Beige Book shows that US economic activity has increased, but tariffs have brought price pressure, making the outlook pessimistic. US employment and inflation growth are still strong, eliminating the possibility of the Fed cutting interest rates in the near term. The Fed maintains a cautious attitude towards rate cuts due to internal disagreements. The market expects the next Fed rate cut to be postponed to September, and the total rate - cut space in 2025 is expected to drop to about 50 basis points. The US 6 - month CPI increased by 2.7% year - on - year, the highest since February, in line with market expectations. The core CPI increased by 2.9% year - on - year and 0.2% month - on - month [2][5]. - A review of the Fed's monetary policy path from 2024 - 2025 shows different stances on rate cuts at different times, including rate cuts of different magnitudes, concerns about inflation and employment, and changes in the expected number of rate cuts [10][11]. 3. Commodity Attribute - Gold jewelry consumption is restricted by high prices, but investment demand for gold bars offsets some of the impact. Central banks in emerging markets are driving up gold - buying demand through their "de - dollarization" strategies [2]. - The World Silver Association expects the global silver supply - demand gap to narrow by 21% in 2025, to 117.6 million ounces (about 3658 tons) due to a 1% decrease in demand and a 2% increase in total supply [2]. 4. Capital Flow - Recently, the net long positions of CFTC managed funds in gold and silver have been slightly reduced. In the domestic market, the net long positions of institutions in Shanghai gold have remained at a high level, while those in Shanghai silver have been slightly reduced. The world's largest gold ETF and silver ETF have ended their long - term downward trends and are slowly increasing their positions [3]. 5. Future Investment Logic Evolution No specific content provided in the report. 6. Weekly Strategy - Short - term: Precious metals are expected to fluctuate strongly. - Medium - term: Precious metals are expected to remain at a high level. - Long - term: Precious metals are expected to show an upward trend [5]. 7. Support and Resistance - Support for Shanghai gold futures main contract: 755 - 760; Resistance: 790 - 795. - Support for Shanghai silver futures main contract: 8900 - 8930; Resistance: 9400 - 9430 [5].

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content Core Viewpoints - The real - estate data in the second quarter and the first half of the year are still weak, indicating that the industry is in the process of bottom - building. The market is trading on weak reality and strong expectations, with the strong expectation mainly being the potential new round of supply - side reform brought by "anti - involution" and an increased optimistic expectation for policies. In the short term, iron ore is expected to remain strong, supported by the rising prices of rebar, coking coal and coke, and glass [2][4] - For rebar and hot - rolled coils, the current situation is one of weak supply and demand. With the arrival of high - temperature weather, demand is expected to weaken further and inventory to rise. For iron ore, steel mills' iron - water production is expected to decline further, while the global shipment is at a relatively high level and rising seasonally. The decline in port inventory supports the futures price, but the inventory of traded ores at ports is relatively high [2][4] Summary by Directory 1. Rebar and Hot - Rolled Coils - **Market Situation**: The real - estate data is weak, and the central urban work conference did not bring the so - called significant positive news rumored last week. The supply - demand data shows a state of weak supply and demand. The demand of the plate sector is better than that of building materials. With high - temperature weather, demand will weaken and inventory will rise. The market is trading on weak reality and strong expectations, and the futures price has stopped falling and is rising, with a short - term strong trend [2] - **Operation Suggestion**: Maintain a wait - and - see attitude and be cautious about chasing up [2] - **Data Summary**: - **Prices**: Rebar and hot - rolled coil futures and spot prices have increased to varying degrees. For example, the closing price of the rebar main contract is 3133 yuan/ton, up 0.87% from the previous day and 0.32% from last week [2] - **Production**: The national building materials steel mill rebar production is 209.06 tons, down 3.51% from last week; hot - roll production is 321.14 tons, down 0.62% from last week [2] - **Inventory**: The total inventory of five major varieties has increased, with the rebar social inventory rising by 2.97% and the hot - roll social inventory falling by 0.80% [2] 2. Iron Ore - **Market Situation**: The profitability of steel mills is acceptable, but iron - water production is expected to decline further. The global shipment is at a high level and rising seasonally. The decline in port inventory supports the futures price, but the traded ore inventory at ports is high. In the short term, it is expected to remain strong due to the rising prices of related products [4] - **Operation Suggestion**: Temporarily maintain a wait - and - see attitude and be cautious about chasing up [4] - **Data Summary**: - **Prices**: The settlement price of the DCE iron ore main contract is 785.5 yuan/dry ton, up 1.62% from the previous day and 2.88% from last week [4] - **Supply**: Australian iron ore shipments are 1569.9 tons, down 0.97% from last week; Brazilian iron ore shipments are 709.9 tons, up 22.63% from last week [4] - **Inventory**: The total port inventory is 13765.89 tons, down 0.81% from last week [4] 3. Industry News - There are rumors of large - scale production cuts in the coking industry in Wuhai due to losses and environmental protection, but the actual production cut is limited [6] - As of the week of July 17, rebar production and apparent demand have declined for the second consecutive week, with the factory inventory changing from an increase to a decrease and the social inventory changing from a decrease to an increase [6] - The average national profit per ton of coke for 30 independent coking plants is - 43 yuan/ton, with different profit levels in different regions [6] - As of July 17, the total inventory of national float glass sample enterprises has decreased for 4 consecutive weeks, reaching a new low in more than 5 months, while the production has increased slightly [6]

Report Overview - **Report Name**: Shanjin Futures Crude Oil Daily Report - **Update Time**: July 18, 2025, 08:15 1. Investment Ratings - No investment ratings are provided in the report. 2. Core Views - OPEC+ is likely to increase production, and high - frequency data is gradually confirming this. The medium - to long - term outlook for crude oil is bearish, but geopolitical factors may still have a pulsed impact, though less intense than before. The focus of crude oil trading may return to supply and demand [2]. - Geopolitical tensions in the Middle East remain, with the possibility of renewed conflict between Israel and Iran. However, the impact on oil prices may be limited if the expectation of blocked shipping lanes does not return [2]. - The "Big and Beautiful" bill signed by Trump may have a gradual and spill - over impact on the market. The implementation of high tariffs may lead to bearish macro - side expectations, higher inflation in the US, and make it difficult for the Fed to cut interest rates [2]. 3. Summary by Content 3.1 Market Data - **Crude Oil Futures**: On July 1, Sc was at 499.40 yuan/barrel, up 2.70 yuan (0.54%) from the previous day and down 19.20 yuan (-3.70%) from the previous week. WTI was at 65.53 dollars/barrel, up 0.56 dollars (0.86%) from the previous day and up 0.52 dollars (0.80%) from the previous week. Brent was at 67.28 dollars/barrel, up 0.65 dollars (0.98%) from the previous day and down 0.54 dollars (-0.80%) from the previous week [2]. - **Spreads**: Sc - WTI was at 4.28 dollars/barrel, down 0.13 dollars (-2.99%) from the previous day and down 3.08 dollars (-41.84%) from the previous week. Sc - Brent was at 2.53 dollars/barrel, down 0.22 dollars (-8.06%) from the previous day and down 2.02 dollars (-44.37%) from the previous week [2]. - **Spot Prices**: OPEC's basket of crude oil was at 68.35 dollars/barrel, up 0.36 dollars (0.53%) from the previous week. Brent DTD was at 68.17 dollars/barrel, down 1.05 dollars (-1.52%) from the previous week. Oman was at 69.20 dollars/barrel, up 1.40 dollars (2.06%) from the previous week. Dubai was at 68.75 dollars/barrel, up 0.95 dollars (1.40%) from the previous week [2]. - **Product Spot Prices**: Diesel in East China was at 7036.45 yuan/ton, down 56.27 yuan (-0.79%) from the previous day and down 380.55 yuan (-5.13%) from the previous week. Gasoline in East China was at 8078.18 yuan/ton, down 66.18 yuan (-0.81%) from the previous day and down 384.27 yuan (-4.54%) from the previous week [2]. - **Inventory Data**: Sc warehouse receipts were at 591.10 million barrels, up 188.20 million barrels (46.71%) from the previous week. US strategic petroleum reserves were at 402.53 million barrels, up 0.24 million barrels (0.06%) from the previous week. US commercial crude oil was at 415.11 million barrels, down 5.84 million barrels (-1.39%) from the previous week [2]. 3.2 Geopolitical and Policy News - E3 foreign ministers and the EU High Representative called on Iran to return to diplomatic channels to reach a verifiable and lasting nuclear agreement by the end of summer, or face renewed UN sanctions [3]. - A US assessment found that only one of the three Iranian nuclear facilities attacked last month was largely destroyed, and Trump rejected a more comprehensive military strike plan against Iran's nuclear program [3]. - Angola plans to increase its oil exports to 1.03 million barrels per day in September [3]. 3.3 Macroeconomic News - In May 2025, Japan and the UK increased their holdings of US Treasury bonds, while China continued to reduce its holdings. Japan's holdings were 1.135 trillion dollars, the UK's were 0.8094 trillion dollars, and China's were 0.7563 trillion dollars [4]. - According to CME's "FedWatch", the probability of the Fed keeping interest rates unchanged in July is 97.4%, and the probability of a 25 - basis - point cut is 2.6%. In September, the probability of keeping rates unchanged is 46.9%, and the probability of a cumulative 25 - basis - point cut is 51.7% [4]. - Fed officials have different views on interest rate cuts. Some believe rates should remain unchanged due to tariff - induced inflation pressure, while others support a 25 - basis - point cut [4][5][6]. 3.4 Technical Analysis and Trading Recommendations - In the medium term, the market is in a neutral oscillation pattern, with support and resistance levels around 65 and 68.3 dollars/barrel respectively. Short - term attention should be paid to the effectiveness of the 66.5 dollars/barrel resistance level for US crude oil [2]. - The trading strategy is to sell on rallies, choose the right timing, or use out - of - the - money put options to avoid short - term bullish shocks [2]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No data provided on the industry investment rating in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The short - term trade war has entered a new stage, with risks of economic recession and geopolitical fluctuations remaining. The risk of stagflation in the US economy has increased, and strong employment and inflation are suppressing expectations of interest rate cuts. [1] - It is expected that precious metals will show a pattern of weak gold and strong silver in the short - term, high - level fluctuations in the medium - term, and a step - by - step upward trend in the long - term. [1] - The price trend of gold is the anchor for the price of silver. In terms of capital, the net long positions of CFTC silver and iShare silver ETF have been reduced again. In terms of inventory, the visible inventory of silver has slightly decreased recently. [4] 3. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Gold - **Market Performance**: Today, precious metals fluctuated weakly. The main contract of Shanghai Gold closed down 0.03%, and the main contract of Shanghai Silver closed up 0.07%. [1] - **Core Logic**: In the short - term, there are risks of economic recession and geopolitical fluctuations. The risk of stagflation in the US economy has increased, and strong employment and inflation are suppressing expectations of interest rate cuts. [1] - **Attributes Analysis** - **Hedging Attribute**: Trump has escalated the trade war, and the EU has threatened to take counter - measures against US tariffs. Trump said he does not plan to fire Powell, which has alleviated market concerns. [1] - **Monetary Attribute**: The Fed's Beige Book shows that US economic activity has increased, but tariffs have brought price pressure, making the outlook pessimistic. US inflation in June remained resilient, but the year - on - year increase in core CPI was 2.9%, and the month - on - month increase was 0.2%, both lower than market expectations. The overall US employment growth was stronger than expected, and the number of initial jobless claims last week unexpectedly dropped to a seven - week low. Currently, the market expects the Fed's next interest rate cut to be in September, and the expected total interest rate cut space in 2025 has fallen back to around 50 basis points. The US dollar index and US Treasury yields fluctuated strongly. [1] - **Commodity Attribute**: The rebound of the CRB commodity index was under pressure, and the strong RMB suppressed domestic prices. [1] - **Strategy**: Conservative investors should wait and see, while aggressive investors can buy low and sell high. It is recommended to manage positions well and set strict stop - loss and take - profit levels. [2] 3.2 Silver - **Price Anchor**: The price trend of gold is the anchor for the price of silver. [4] - **Capital and Inventory**: In terms of capital, the net long positions of CFTC silver and iShare silver ETF have been reduced again. In terms of inventory, the visible inventory of silver has slightly decreased recently. [4] - **Strategy**: Conservative investors should wait and see, while aggressive investors can buy low and sell high. It is recommended to manage positions well and set strict stop - loss and take - profit levels. [5] 3.3 Fundamental Key Data - **Monetary Attribute Data**: The federal funds target rate upper limit is 4.50%, the discount rate is 4.50%, the reserve balance interest rate (IORB) is 4.40%, the Fed's total assets are 67132.36 billion US dollars, M2 year - on - year growth is 4.50%, the 10 - year US Treasury real yield is 2.61, the US dollar index is 98.32, the US Treasury yield spread (3 - month to 10 - year) is 0.53, etc. [7] - **Hedging Attribute Data**: The geopolitical risk index is 122.08, and the VIX index is 17.14. [10] - **Commodity Attribute Data**: The CRB commodity index is 303.15, and the offshore RMB exchange rate is 7.1842. [10] 3.4 Fed's Latest Interest Rate Expectations The probability distribution of the Fed's interest rate levels at different meetings from July 2025 to December 2026 is provided in the table, showing the market's expectations for the Fed's interest rate decisions at different times. [11]