Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content Core Viewpoints - Today, precious metals showed high-level differentiation. Shanghai Gold's main contract closed up 0.21%, Shanghai Silver's main contract closed up 3.07%, Platinum's main contract closed down 0.48%, and Palladium's main contract closed down 0.68% [1] - In the short - term, trade - war related hedging has subsided, but geopolitical risks remain. The US employment is weakening and inflation is moderate, leading to a slowdown in interest - rate cut expectations [1] - The Fed cut the interest rate with internal differences, hinting at a pause in action and possibly only one rate cut next year. The current market expects the probability of no rate cut in January 2026 to remain around 80%, and the next possible rate cut may be in April [1] - Precious metals are expected to be weakly volatile in the short - term, highly volatile in the medium - term, and to rise step - by - step in the long - term [1] - The price trend of gold is the anchor for the price of silver. In terms of capital, CFTC silver net long positions and iShare silver ETF have slightly increased their positions. In terms of inventory, the recent visible inventory of silver has slightly increased [5] Summary by Directory 1. Gold - **Price Performance**: Comex gold's main contract closed at $4258.30 per ounce, up 0.51% from the previous day and 0.55% from last week. London gold was at $4200.15 per ounce, up 0.05% from the previous day and down 0.24% from last week. Shanghai Gold's main contract closed at 957.90 yuan per gram, up 0.16% from the previous day and 0.47% from last week [2] - **Position and Inventory**: Comex gold's position was 459,997 lots (100 ounces per lot), Shanghai Gold's main contract position decreased by 0.25% from the previous day and 2.76% from last week. LBMA gold inventory was 8598 tons with no change, Comex gold inventory decreased by 1.08% from last week [2] - **Investment Strategy**: For gold, conservative investors are advised to wait and see, while aggressive investors can buy low and sell high. Good position management and strict stop - loss and take - profit are recommended [2] 2. Silver - **Price Performance**: Comex silver's main contract closed at $62.20 per ounce, up 1.70% from the previous day and 5.55% from last week. London silver was at $61.04 per ounce, up 4.10% from the previous day and 4.57% from last week. Shanghai Silver's main contract closed at 14,488 yuan per kilogram, up 0.80% from the previous day and 7.93% from last week [6] - **Position and Inventory**: LBMA silver inventory increased by 10.60% from last week, Comex silver inventory decreased by 0.07% from last week, and Shanghai Silver's inventory increased by 19.34% from last week [6] - **Investment Strategy**: Similar to gold, conservative investors are advised to wait and see, while aggressive investors can buy low and sell high. Good position management and strict stop - loss and take - profit are recommended [6] 3. Fundamental Key Data - **Fed - related Data**: The upper limit of the federal funds target rate is 3.75%, the discount rate is 4.00%, and the reserve balance interest rate (IORB) is 3.65%, all decreased by 0.25% compared to before. The Fed's total assets are $6586.185 billion, down $164.12 billion from before [8] - **Inflation Data**: The year - on - year CPI is 3.00%, the month - on - month CPI is 0.30%, the year - on - year core CPI is 3.00%, and the month - on - month core CPI is 0.30% [10] - **Economic Growth Data**: The annualized year - on - year GDP is 2.00%, and the annualized quarter - on - quarter GDP is 3.80% [10] - **Employment Data**: The unemployment rate is 4.40%, and the monthly change in non - farm payrolls is 11.90 million [10] - **Other Data**: The geopolitical risk index is 123.60, down 22.89% from before; the VIX index is 15.77, down 6.85% from the previous day and 1.93% from last week; the CRB commodity index is 301.38, up 0.58% from the previous day and down 0.84% from last week [11] 4. Fed's Latest Interest Rate Expectations - The probability of the Fed keeping the interest rate in the 350 - 375 range in January 2026 is 77.9%. The probability distribution of interest - rate ranges changes over different meeting dates from 2026 to 2027 [12]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content 2. Core Viewpoints - Today, precious metals showed high - level differentiation. Shanghai Gold's main contract closed up 0.26%, Shanghai Silver's main contract closed up 5.44%, platinum's main contract closed up 1.08%, and palladium's main contract closed up 1.08% [1] - In the short - term, trade - war - related避险 has subsided, but geopolitical risks remain. The US job market is weakening, inflation is moderate, and there are still expectations of interest rate cuts [1] - The possibility of the Fed cutting interest rates has increased. The US economic activity has changed little, but the government shutdown has suppressed demand in many places. The market is waiting for more economic data. Currently, the market expects an 80%+ probability of a 25 - basis - point interest rate cut by the Fed in December [1] - It is expected that in the short - term, gold will be weak and silver strong, platinum will be strong and palladium weak. In the medium - term, they will fluctuate at high levels, and in the long - term, they will rise step - by - step [1] - The price trend of gold is the anchor for the price of silver. In terms of funds, the net long position of CFTC silver and the iShare silver ETF have slightly increased positions. In terms of inventory, the recent explicit inventory of silver has slightly increased [7] 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Gold Market Performance - Shanghai Gold's main contract closed up 0.26%, Comex gold's main contract closed at $4236.60 per ounce, up 0.40% from the previous day, and London gold closed at $4198.00 per ounce, up 0.23% from the previous day [1][2] - The closing price of Shanghai Gold's main contract (SHFE) was 956.40 yuan per gram, up 0.51% from the previous day [2] Core Logic - Short - term: Trade - war - related避险 has subsided, geopolitical risks remain, US employment is weakening, inflation is moderate, and interest - rate - cut expectations remain [1] - 避险 attribute: There are discussions about ending the Ukraine war, and there are still geopolitical risks in the Middle East [1] - Monetary attribute: The possibility of Fed rate cuts has increased, the US economic activity has changed little, and the market is waiting for more economic data [1] - Commodity attribute: The CRB commodity index fluctuates weakly, the RMB appreciation is negative for domestic prices. Silver is supported by tight supply, platinum has strong demand expectations for platinum - based catalysts in the hydrogen - energy industry, and palladium faces long - term structural pressure in the fuel - vehicle market [1] Strategy - Conservative investors should wait and see, while aggressive investors can buy low and sell high. It is recommended to manage positions well and set strict stop - losses and take - profits [3] Silver Market Performance - Comex silver's main contract closed at $61.16 per ounce, up 4.55% from the previous day, and London silver closed at $58.63 per ounce, up 0.44% from the previous day [8] - The closing price of Shanghai Silver's main contract (SHFE) was 14373.00 yuan per kilogram, up 5.63% from the previous day [8] Strategy - Conservative investors should wait and see, while aggressive investors can buy low and sell high. It is recommended to manage positions well and set strict stop - losses and take - profits [8] Fundamental Key Data Monetary Attribute - Federal funds target rate upper limit: 4.00%, down 0.25% from the previous value; discount rate: 4.00%, down 0.25% from the previous value; reserve balance rate (IORB): 3.90%, down 0.25% from the previous value [10] - The Fed's total assets were $65861.85 billion, down 0.00% from the previous value [10] - M2 (year - on - year): 4.65%, up 0.22% from the previous value; 10 - year US Treasury real yield: 2.51, up 0.80% from the previous day, up 2.03% from the previous week [10] - US Treasury spreads, inflation data, economic growth data, labor market data, real estate market data, consumption data, industrial data, trade data, and economic survey data are also provided [12] 避险 Attribute - Geopolitical risk index: 123.60, up 14.93% from the previous day, down 27.38% from the previous week; VIX index: 16.93, up 1.62% from the previous day, up 2.05% from the previous week [13] Commodity Attribute - CRB commodity index: 299.63, down 0.61% from the previous day, down 0.87% from the previous week; offshore RMB: 7.0685, up 0.10% from the previous week [13] Fed's Interest Rate Expectation - According to the CME FedWatch tool, the market's expectations for the Fed's interest - rate changes from December 10, 2025, to October 27, 2027, are presented [14]

投资咨询系列报告 山金期货贵金属策略报告 更新时间：2025年12月09日16时33分 一、黄金 报告导读： 今日贵金属高位分化，沪金主力收跌0.92%，沪银主力收跌0.68%，铂金主力收跌1.30%，钯金主力收涨跌0.47%。①核心逻辑， 短期避险方面，贸易战避险消退，地缘异动风险仍在；美国就业走弱通胀温和，降息预期仍存。②避险属性方面，普京会见特朗普 特使和库什纳，讨论结束乌克兰战争的可能途径。中美经贸磋商成果共识公布。中东等地缘异动风险仍存。③货币属性方面，美联 储理事沃勒和纽约联储威廉姆斯讲话共同提高美联储降息可能性。美联储褐皮书显示，美国经济活动变化不大，但政府停摆令多地 需求受抑。美国9月消费者支出温和增长，通胀创近一年半最快增速。美国上周初请失业金人数意外减少2.7万人至19.1万人，为 2022年9月以来的最低水平。美国政府结束停摆，市场等待更多经济数据指引。目前市场预期美联储12月降息25基点概率暴涨近 90%。美元指数和美债收益率震荡偏强；④商品属性方面，CRB商品指数震荡偏弱，人民币升值利空内价格。需求端氢能产业被列 为战略新兴产业，对铂基催化剂的需求形成长期强劲预期。钯金长期面临燃油车 ...

投资咨询系列报告 更新时间：2025年12月08日16时14分 一、黄金 报告导读： 今日贵金属高位分化，沪金主力收涨0.15%，沪银主力收涨2.06%，铂金主力收涨0.66%，钯金主力收涨涨1.07%。①核心逻辑， 短期避险方面，贸易战避险消退，地缘异动风险仍在；美国就业走弱通胀温和，降息预期仍存。②避险属性方面，普京会见特朗普 特使和库什纳，讨论结束乌克兰战争的可能途径。中美经贸磋商成果共识公布。中东等地缘异动风险仍存。③货币属性方面，美联 储理事沃勒和纽约联储威廉姆斯讲话共同提高美联储降息可能性。美联储褐皮书显示，美国经济活动变化不大，但政府停摆令多地 需求受抑。美国9月消费者支出温和增长，通胀创近一年半最快增速。美国上周初请失业金人数意外减少2.7万人至19.1万人，为 2022年9月以来的最低水平。美国政府结束停摆，市场等待更多经济数据指引。目前市场预期美联储12月降息25基点概率暴涨至 80%以上。美元指数和美债收益率震荡偏弱；④商品属性方面，CRB商品指数震荡偏弱，人民币升值利空内价格。需求端氢能产业 被列为战略新兴产业，对铂基催化剂的需求形成长期强劲预期。钯金长期面临燃油车市场结构性压力。⑤预 ...

投资咨询系列报告 山金期货黑色板块日报 一、螺纹、热卷 更新时间：2025年12月08日08时23分 报告导读： 供需方面，上周的数据显示螺纹、热卷产量环比上周均下降，五大品种产量环比回落，整体库存继续回落，热卷的库存仍明显高于历年同期，螺纹 去库压力相对较小。上周表观需求整体回落，市场处于供需双弱的状态。由于钢厂毛利大幅回落，且消费高峰期过去，钢厂产量有望继续缓慢下降 。近期煤焦价格也出现了走弱迹象 ，钢材成本支撑减弱。整体来看，在消费淡季，供需双弱，且库存压力仍较大，市场对政策面预期增强，强预期 占主导。从技术上看，在日 K 线图上，05 合约的期价震荡上行，创近一个月高点后回落，短线有望延续之前的震荡企稳回升态势 操作建议： 多单可轻仓持有，中线交易，逢低可少量加仓 | 表1：螺纹、热卷相关数据 | | | | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 数据类别 | 指标 | 单位 | 最新 | | 较上日 | | 较上周 | | | 螺纹钢主力合约收盘价 | 元/吨 | 3157 | -18 | -0.57% | 47 | ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - For the steel market, in the off - season of consumption, there is a situation of weak supply and demand, and the inventory pressure is still high, but the market's expectation for the policy side has increased. Technically, the futures price of steel is oscillating upwards at a low level and may form an upward breakthrough. It is recommended to go long with a light position, add a small amount of positions on pullbacks, and hold the positions in the medium - term [2]. - For the iron ore market, with the arrival of the consumption off - season, the iron ore demand is expected to decline seasonally, and the steel mills' production cuts will suppress the raw material prices. The supply is expected to increase in the future, and the rising port inventory suppresses the futures price, but the policy side provides support. Technically, the 01 - contract futures price has broken through the middle track of the Bollinger Band, but it is still in a wide - range oscillation at a relatively high level. It is recommended to go long with a light position and add positions on short - term pullbacks [4]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Thread and Hot - Rolled Coil - **Supply and Demand**: Last week, the thread production decreased, the hot - rolled coil production increased, and the production of the five major varieties increased month - on - month. The overall inventory continued to decline, but the hot - rolled coil inventory was still significantly higher than the same period in previous years, with greater inventory pressure compared to thread. This week, the apparent demand declined moderately. Due to the significant decline in steel mill profits and the end of the consumption peak, the steel mill production cuts may exceed the normal seasonal scale, potentially triggering a phased negative feedback cycle. Recently, the prices of coking coal and coke have also shown signs of weakening, weakening the cost support for steel [2]. - **Operation Suggestion**: Go long with a light position, add a small amount of positions on pullbacks, and hold the positions in the medium - term [2]. - **Data**: - **Price**: The closing price of the thread steel main contract was 3169 yuan/ton, up 2.26% from last week; the closing price of the hot - rolled coil main contract was 3324 yuan/ton, up 0.61% from last week [2]. - **Production**: The national building materials steel mill thread steel production was 206.08 tons, down 0.90% from last week; the hot - rolled coil production was 319.01 tons, up 0.95% from last week [2]. - **Inventory**: The social inventory of the five major varieties was 1007.32 tons, down 2.15% from last week; the thread social inventory was 384.75 tons, down 3.82% from last week; the hot - rolled coil social inventory was 322.88 tons, down 0.37% from last week [2]. 3.2 Iron Ore - **Supply and Demand**: In terms of demand, last week, the iron ore output of sample steel mills decreased significantly month - on - month. With the arrival of the consumption off - season, the iron ore demand is expected to decline seasonally, and the steel mills' production cuts will suppress the raw material prices. In terms of supply, the global iron ore shipments have rebounded from the high level, and the arrival volume is expected to increase after a period. Currently, the rising port inventory suppresses the futures price, and the slow inventory reduction of steel also suppresses the overall market sentiment, but the policy side provides support [4]. - **Operation Suggestion**: Go long with a light position and add positions on short - term pullbacks [4]. - **Data**: - **Price**: The settlement price of the DCE iron ore main contract was 799.5 yuan/dry ton, down 0.83% from last week; the settlement price of the SGX iron ore continuous - one contract was 104.2 US dollars/dry ton, up 0.31% from last week [4]. - **Shipment**: The Australian iron ore shipment was 1653.8 tons, down 1.37% from last week; the Brazilian iron ore shipment was 822.8 tons, up 15.50% from last week [4]. - **Inventory**: The total port inventory was 15210.12 tons, up 1.03% from last week; the port trade ore inventory was 10280.7 tons, up 1.58% from last week [4]. 3.3 Industry News - The first shipment of iron ore from the Simandou project was successfully sent out, marking that this world - class iron ore mine that has been dormant for nearly 30 years has officially opened up the entire industrial chain channel of "mine - railway - port - shipping" [6]. - In October, the national stainless steel crude steel output was 3.6244 million tons, a month - on - month increase of 78,700 tons or 2.22% [7]. - In November, 42 national building materials production enterprises carried out production reduction and maintenance, 9 more than the previous month. The production reduction and maintenance in November affected the iron ore output by 437,500 tons, a month - on - month increase of 125.52%; it affected the crude steel output by 697,800 tons, a month - on - month increase of 74.19% [7]. - As of the week ending December 3, the national building materials output was 4.3509 million tons, a decrease of 65,800 tons from last week; the social inventory was 4.4779 million tons, a decrease of 231,700 tons from last week; the total inventory was 8.2315 million tons, a decrease of 419,800 tons from last week; the apparent demand was 4.7707 million tons, a decrease of 49,600 tons from last week [7].

1. Report's Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the report 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - In the steel market, during the consumption off - season, there is a situation of weak supply and demand, with large inventory pressure, but the market is more focused on policy expectations. For the iron ore market, the decline in iron - water production and slow inventory reduction in the steel market suppress prices, while policy factors provide support [2][4] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Threaded Rods and Hot - Rolled Coils - **Supply and Demand**: Last week, threaded rod production decreased, hot - rolled coil production increased, and the production of five major steel products increased. Overall inventory continued to decline, but hot - rolled coil inventory was significantly higher than the same period in previous years, with greater inventory pressure. This week, the apparent demand declined moderately. Due to the significant decline in steel mill profit margins and the end of the consumption peak, steel mills' production cuts may exceed the normal seasonal scale, potentially triggering a negative feedback cycle. Recently, coal and coke prices have shown a weakening trend, weakening the cost support for steel [2] - **Technical Analysis**: On the daily K - line chart, the futures price fluctuated upward at a low level, reaching a one - month high, and there is a possibility of an upward breakthrough. Attention should be paid to the trend of the 05 contract [2] - **Operation Suggestion**: Maintain a wait - and - see attitude, do not chase after rising or falling prices, and patiently wait for a full adjustment before going long [2] 3.2 Iron Ore - **Demand**: Last week, the iron - water production of sample steel mills decreased significantly, while the production of five major steel products increased. With the arrival of the consumption off - season, iron - water production is expected to continue to decline seasonally, and steel mills' production cuts will suppress raw material prices. Due to the late Spring Festival this year, the pre - holiday restocking demand will come later than usual [4] - **Supply**: Global iron ore shipments have rebounded from a high, and it is expected that the arrival volume will increase after some time. The continuous increase in port inventory suppresses the futures price, and the slow inventory reduction of steel also affects market sentiment. However, policies support the futures price [4] - **Technical Analysis**: The 01 contract's futures price has broken through the suppression of the middle - track of the Bollinger Bands, but it still remains in a wide - range high - level oscillation [4] - **Operation Suggestion**: Maintain a wait - and - see attitude, and patiently wait for the price to pull back before entering the market for medium - term long - positions [4] 3.3 Industry News - From November 24th to November 30th, 2025, the total iron ore inventory at seven major ports in Australia and Brazil was 1.2139 billion tons, a month - on - month increase of 822,000 tons, a slight rebound. The current inventory level is slightly lower than the average since the fourth quarter [6] - As of December 2nd, 2025, two steel mills announced winter storage policies, with one in Northeast China and one in North China. Two new steel mills were added today, with fixed - price locked - in goods, no price increase in case of market rise, price decrease in case of market fall, and the option to set the price at any time. The price is guaranteed until March 31st, 2026 [6] - According to Longzhong Information, the 600 - ton production line of Benxi Fuyao Float Glass Co., Ltd. was ignited on November 29th. As of December 1st, the average order days of national deep - processing sample enterprises increased by 2.4% month - on - month to 10.1 days, a year - on - year decrease of 17.9% [6]

投资咨询系列报告 山金期货贵金属策略报告 更新时间：2025年12月02日16时13分 一、黄金 报告导读： 今日贵金属高位分化，沪金主力收涨0.01%，沪银主力收涨2.46%，铂金主力收跌2.57%，钯金主力收涨跌2.23%。①核心逻辑， 短期避险方面，贸易战避险消退，地缘异动风险仍在；美国就业走弱通胀温和，降息预期仍存。②避险属性方面，中美经贸磋商成 果共识公布。俄乌、中东等地缘异动风险仍存。③货币属性方面，美联储理事沃勒和纽约联储威廉姆斯讲话共同提高美联储降息可 能性。美联储褐皮书显示，美国经济活动变化不大，但政府停摆令多地需求受抑。美国供应管理协会(ISM)表示，11月美国制造业 PMI从10月的48.7降至48.2连续第九个月萎缩。美国9月零售销售不及预期，消费者信心降至七个月低点。美国9月就业增长超预 期，但失业率升至4.4%。美国政府结束停摆，市场等待更多经济数据指引。目前市场预期美联储12月降息25基点概率暴涨至80% 以上。美元指数和美债收益率下行遇阻；④商品属性方面，CRB商品指数震荡偏弱，人民币升值利空内价格。需求端氢能产业被列 为战略新兴产业，对铂基催化剂的需求形成长期强劲预期。钯金长 ...

投资咨询系列报告 报告导读： 供需方面，上周的数据显示螺纹产量下降，热卷产量上升，五大品种产量环比上升，整体库存继续回落，但热卷的库存仍明显高于历年同期 ，螺纹 去库压力相对较小，热卷库存的压力更大。本周表观需求整体温和回落。由于钢厂毛利大幅回落，且消费高峰期过去，钢厂减产幅度可能会超过正 常季节性的减产规模，从而可能会引发阶段性的负反馈循环 。近期煤焦价格也出现了走弱迹象 ，钢材成本支撑减弱。整体来看，在消费淡季，供需 双弱，且库存压力仍大，但市场对政策面预期增强。从技术上看，在日 K 线图上，期价低位震荡上行，创近一个月高点，有可能形成向上的突破， 需密切关注 05 合约的走势。 操作建议： 维持观望，不可追涨杀跌，耐心等待充分调整后做多。 表1：螺纹、热卷相关数据 | 数据类别 | 指标 | 单位 | 最新 | | 较上日 | | 较上周 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | 螺纹钢主力合约收盘价 | 元/吨 | 3134 | 24 | 0.77% | 45 | 1.46% | | 期现货价格 | 热轧卷板主力合约收盘价 | 元/ ...

投资咨询系列报告 山金期货贵金属策略报告 更新时间：2025年12月01日16时21分 一、黄金 报告导读： 今日贵金属高位分化，沪金主力收涨1.33%，沪银主力收涨5.86%，铂金主力收涨3.96%，钯金主力收涨2.44%。①核心逻辑，短 期避险方面，贸易战避险消退，地缘异动风险仍在；美国就业走弱通胀温和，降息预期仍存。②避险属性方面，中美经贸磋商成果 共识公布。俄乌、中东等地缘异动风险仍存。③货币属性方面，美联储理事沃勒和纽约联储威廉姆斯讲话共同提高美联储降息可能 性。美联储褐皮书显示，美国经济活动变化不大，但政府停摆令多地需求受抑。美国9月零售销售不及预期，消费者信心降至七个 月低点。美国9月就业增长超预期，但失业率升至4.4%。美国政府结束停摆，市场等待更多经济数据指引。目前市场预期美联储12 月降息25基点概率暴涨至80%附近。美元指数和美债收益率震荡偏弱；④商品属性方面，CRB商品指数震荡偏弱，人民币升值利 空内价格。需求端氢能产业被列为战略新兴产业，对铂基催化剂的需求形成长期强劲预期。钯金长期面临燃油车市场结构性压力。 ⑤预计贵金属短期金弱银强，铂强钯弱，中期高位震荡，长期阶梯上行。 | 策略： ...