Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No industry investment rating is provided in the report. 2. Core Views - **Overall**: The black - metal industry is in a state of weak supply and demand during the consumption off - season, with significant inventory pressure. For steel products, the cost support has weakened due to the sharp decline in coking coal prices. For iron ore, the decline in steel production suppresses raw material prices, and the rising port inventory also exerts pressure on futures prices [2][5]. - **Operation Suggestions**: For both steel products (thread and hot - rolled coil) and iron ore, it is recommended to hold long positions lightly. For steel products, short - selling is not recommended at the current position. For iron ore, a mid - term trading approach with an oscillatory mindset should be adopted, avoiding chasing highs or selling lows [2][5]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Thread and Hot - Rolled Coil - **Supply and Demand**: Last week, the production of thread and hot - rolled coil decreased, and the overall inventory continued to decline. However, the inventory of hot - rolled coil was still significantly higher than the same period in previous years, and the de - stocking pressure of thread was relatively small. The apparent demand declined overall, and the market was in a state of weak supply and demand. As the steel mill's gross profit dropped significantly and the consumption peak has passed, the steel production is expected to continue to decline slowly [2]. - **Cost**: The sharp decline in coking coal prices has weakened the cost support for steel [2]. - **Technical Analysis**: On the daily K - line chart, the 05 contract of steel briefly fell below the oscillation range and then rebounded quickly. Currently, it has not broken out of the recent oscillation range or formed a downward breakthrough [2]. - **Data**: - **Prices**: The closing prices of the main contracts of thread steel and hot - rolled coil showed different changes compared to the previous day and week. The spot prices of some products remained unchanged or decreased slightly [3]. - **Production**: The production of national building material steel mills' thread steel and hot - rolled coil decreased week - on - week. The production of electric - arc furnace steel mills' thread steel increased significantly [3]. - **Inventory**: The social inventory of five major steel products and thread decreased, while the social inventory of hot - rolled coil decreased slightly. The steel mill inventory of five major steel products and hot - rolled coil increased, while the steel mill inventory of thread decreased [3]. - **Apparent Demand**: The apparent demand of five major steel products, thread, and hot - rolled coil decreased week - on - week [3]. 3.2 Iron Ore - **Demand**: The production and apparent demand of five major steel products decreased last week. With the arrival of the consumption off - season, the molten iron production is likely to decline seasonally. The steel mill's production reduction suppresses the raw material prices. The pre - holiday replenishment demand will come later this year due to the late Spring Festival [5]. - **Supply**: Global iron ore shipments are still at a high level, and the continuous increase in port inventory suppresses the futures prices [5]. - **Technical Analysis**: The 05 contract of iron ore has not broken out of the wide - range oscillation at a relatively high level [5]. - **Data**: - **Prices**: The spot and futures prices of iron ore showed different changes compared to the previous day and week. The prices of various iron ore powder products in different ports also changed [5]. - **Shipments**: The Australian iron ore shipments decreased, while the Brazilian iron ore shipments increased significantly [5]. - **Inventory**: The port inventory of iron ore increased, while the sintered powder inventory of imported ore in 64 sample steel mills decreased [5]. 3.3 Industry News - As of the week ending December 17, according to Zhaogang.com data, the national building material production increased, the factory inventory increased slightly, the social inventory decreased, and the total inventory decreased. The apparent demand increased [7]. - The government of Amapá state in Brazil plans to restart the iron ore production of the Amapá project, which is expected to attract up to $200 million in investment. Cadence recently raised $6 million on the London Stock Exchange to resume the operation of the Azteca small - scale mine, with an expected annual production of 380,000 - 400,000 tons of iron concentrate [7].

投资咨询系列报告 山金期货贵金属策略报告 更新时间：2025年12月17日16时33分 一、黄金 报告导读： 今日贵金属震荡偏强，沪金主力收涨0.42%，沪银主力收涨5.05%，铂金主力收涨7%，钯金主力收涨涨6.99%。逻辑：①核心逻 辑，短期避险方面，贸易战避险消退，地缘异动风险仍在；美国就业走弱通胀温和，降息预期放缓。②避险属性方面，美欧考虑停 火后向乌克兰提供安全保护，德总理称必要时可对俄军动武。中美经贸磋商成果共识公布。中东等地缘异动风险仍存。③货币属性 方面，美国11月就业反弹超预期，失业率升至四年高位。美联储在重重分歧中下调利率，暗示将暂停行动明年或仅降息一次。鲍 威尔指出，美联储的利率政策已处于良好位置，可以应对未来经济走势，但他拒绝就近期是否会再次降息提供指引。目前市场预期 美联储26年1月不降息概率维持在80%附近，下次降息或到4月。美元指数和美债收益率震荡偏弱；④商品属性方面，白银受到供 应偏紧支撑。铂金氢能产业铂基催化剂需求预期强劲。钯金短期需求仍有韧性，长期面临燃油车市场结构性压力。CRB商品指数震 荡偏弱，人民币升值利空内价格。⑤预计贵金属短期金弱银强，铂钯上行，中期高位震荡，长期 ...

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No investment rating information is provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints - The steel market is in a state of weak supply and demand during the off - season, with significant inventory pressure. Steel production is expected to continue to decline slowly due to reduced mill margins and the end of the consumption peak. The implementation of the steel export license system and changes in the production license system still exert some pressure on the market [2]. - For iron ore, as the consumption off - season approaches, iron ore demand is likely to decline seasonally. The high global shipments and rising port inventories are putting pressure on prices, and iron ore faces relatively greater pressure [5]. 3. Summary by Sections 3.1. Threaded Bars and Hot - Rolled Coils - **Supply and Demand**: Last week, the production of threaded bars and hot - rolled coils decreased week - on - week, and the overall inventory continued to decline. However, the inventory of hot - rolled coils remains significantly higher than the same period in previous years, and the de - stocking pressure for threaded bars is relatively small. This week, the apparent demand has declined overall, and the market is in a state of weak supply and demand [2]. - **Cost**: The recent sharp decline in coking coal prices has weakened the cost support for steel [2]. - **Technical Analysis**: On the daily K - line chart, the 05 contract briefly fell below the oscillation range and then rebounded quickly, but it has not yet broken out of the recent oscillation range [2]. - **Operation Suggestion**: Long positions can be held with a light position. If the market continues to decline and forms a new downward trend, appropriate position reduction or liquidation can be considered. Shorting is not recommended at the current position [2]. - **Data**: The closing price of the threaded bar futures main contract was 3081 yuan/ton, up 0.06% week - on - week; the closing price of the hot - rolled coil futures main contract was 3246 yuan/ton, down 0.18% week - on - week. The 247 - steel - mill blast furnace开工率 was 80.16%, down 0.93 percentage points week - on - week; the average daily pig iron output was 229.2 million tons, down 1.33% week - on - week [3]. 3.2. Iron Ore - **Demand**: Last week, the production and apparent demand of the five major steel products decreased week - on - week. As the consumption off - season arrives, iron ore demand is likely to decline seasonally. The reduction of steel production by mills is suppressing raw material prices. Due to the late Spring Festival this year, the pre - holiday replenishment demand will also come later than in previous years [5]. - **Supply**: Global shipments remain at a high level, and the continuous increase in port inventories is putting pressure on futures prices. The building steel production license system and the inclusion of some steel products in export license management will affect exports next year, and iron ore faces relatively greater pressure [5]. - **Technical Analysis**: The 05 contract has not yet broken out of the wide - range oscillation pattern at a relatively high level [5]. - **Operation Suggestion**: Long positions can be held with a light position for medium - term trading. Adopt an oscillation mindset and avoid chasing highs or selling lows [5]. - **Data**: The settlement price of the DCE iron ore main contract was 753 yuan/dry ton, down 3.28% week - on - week; the settlement price of the SGX iron ore continuous - first contract was 102.55 US dollars/dry ton, down 0.81% week - on - week. Australian iron ore shipments were 1764.1 million tons, down 1.20% week - on - week; Brazilian iron ore shipments were 819.5 million tons, up 37.92% week - on - week [5]. 3.3. Industry News - As of December 16, 5 steel mills announced their 2026 winter - storage policies, covering the Northeast, North, and Northwest regions. The policies require full payment by December 20, and the unsettled resources will be settled at the average price from March 16 to April 15 next year, with a daily settlement cap of 15%, and the interest calculation method is 6‰ per day, with interest stopping on the point - pricing day [7]. - According to the official notice of the Handan Ecological Environment Bureau, Handan officially launched a level - II emergency response for heavy pollution weather at 12:00 on December 14. Steel enterprises in the jurisdiction need to strictly implement production - restriction control measures. Three blast furnaces of plate mills in Handan are under maintenance, and it is expected that the average daily pig iron output will decrease by about 15,000 tons. Another blast furnace plans to join the maintenance, which will further affect the average daily pig iron output by about 5,000 tons [7]. - The Yimin Coal Mine of Inner Mongolia Youheng Coal Co., Ltd. was ordered to suspend production for rectification for 2 days due to major safety hazards [7].

投资咨询系列报告 山金期货贵金属策略报告 更新时间：2025年12月16日16时29分 一、黄金 报告导读： ①核心逻辑，短期避险方面，贸易战避险消退，地缘异动风险仍在；美国就业走弱通胀温和，降息预期放缓。②避险属性方面，美 国官员与乌克兰总统泽连斯基旨在结束战争的重要会谈取得进展。中美经贸磋商成果共识公布。中东等地缘异动风险仍存。③货币 属性方面，美联储威廉姆斯表示，政策已从温和限制性转向中性，料通胀明年回落。美国初请失业金人数创近四年半最大增幅。美 联储在重重分歧中下调利率，暗示将暂停行动明年或仅降息一次。鲍威尔指出，美联储的利率政策已处于良好位置，可以应对未来 经济走势，但他拒绝就近期是否会再次降息提供指引。目前市场预期美联储26年1月不降息概率维持在80%附近，下次降息或到4 月。美元指数和美债收益率震荡偏弱；④商品属性方面，白银受到供应偏紧支撑。铂金氢能产业铂基催化剂需求预期强劲。钯金短 期需求仍有任性，长期面临燃油车市场结构性压力。CRB商品指数震荡偏弱，人民币升值利空内价格。⑤预计贵金属短期金弱银 强，铂强钯弱，中期高位震荡，长期阶梯上行。 | 表1 黄金相关数据： | | --- | | 策略 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The steel market is in a state of weak supply and demand during the off - season, with high inventory pressure. The implementation of the steel export license system and changes in the production license system still exert some pressure on the market. For steel, it is recommended to hold long positions lightly, and consider reducing or closing positions if a new downward trend forms. Do not short at the current position [2]. - For iron ore, demand is expected to decline as steel production decreases with the arrival of the off - season, and supply is at a high level with rising port inventories. It is recommended to hold long positions lightly for medium - term trading, and approach it with a range - bound mindset without chasing highs or lows [5]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1. Threaded Rods and Hot - Rolled Coils - **Supply and Demand**: Last week, the production of threaded rods and hot - rolled coils decreased week - on - week, and the overall inventory of the five major steel products continued to decline. The inventory of hot - rolled coils is still significantly higher than the historical average, while the de - stocking pressure for threaded rods is relatively small. This week, the apparent demand has declined overall, indicating a state of weak supply and demand. Due to the significant decline in steel mill margins and the passing of the consumption peak, steel mill production is expected to continue to decline slowly. The sharp drop in coking coal prices has weakened the cost support for steel [2]. - **Technical Analysis**: On the daily K - line chart, the 05 contract of steel is still in a range - bound trend. After a significant gap - down opening, it rebounded but has not broken out of the recent trading range [2]. - **Operation Suggestion**: Hold long positions lightly. If the market continues to fall and forms a new downward trend, consider reducing or closing positions. Do not short at the current position [2]. - **Data Summary**: The closing prices of the main contracts of threaded rods and hot - rolled coils, as well as most spot prices, have declined compared to last week. The blast furnace operating rate, average daily hot metal output, and the proportion of profitable steel mills have all decreased. The production of threaded rods and hot - rolled coils has declined, and the overall inventory of the five major steel products has decreased, but the inventory of hot - rolled coils in steel mills has increased. The apparent demand has declined, and the number of registered futures warehouse receipts has decreased [3]. 3.2. Iron Ore - **Demand**: Last week, the production and apparent demand of the five major steel products decreased week - on - week. With the arrival of the consumption off - season, hot metal production is likely to continue to decline seasonally. Steel mill production cuts are putting pressure on raw material prices. The pre - holiday restocking demand will come later this year due to the late Spring Festival [5]. - **Supply**: Global iron ore shipments are still at a high level, and the continuous increase in port inventories is suppressing futures prices. The building steel bar production license system and the inclusion of some steel products in export license management will affect exports next year, putting relatively greater pressure on iron ore [5]. - **Technical Analysis**: The 05 contract of iron ore has not broken out of the wide - range trading pattern at a relatively high level [5]. - **Operation Suggestion**: Hold long positions lightly for medium - term trading. Approach it with a range - bound mindset and avoid chasing highs or lows [5]. - **Data Summary**: The settlement prices of most iron ore contracts and spot prices have declined compared to last week. The shipment volume from Australia has increased, while that from Brazil has decreased. The arrival volume at northern ports has decreased, the average daily port clearance volume has decreased slightly, and the total port inventory has increased. The inventory of imported sintered powder ore in 64 sample steel mills has decreased [5]. 3.3. Industry News - In early December 2025, key steel enterprises produced 1869 million tons of crude steel, with an average daily output of 186.9 million tons (a 2.8% increase in daily output month - on - month); 1714 million tons of pig iron, with an average daily output of 171.4 million tons (a 3.4% decrease in daily output month - on - month); and 1829 million tons of steel, with an average daily output of 182.9 million tons (a 12.1% decrease in daily output month - on - month) [7]. - From December 8th to 14th, 2025, the total arrival volume of iron ore at 47 ports in China was 2928.1 million tons, a week - on - week increase of 358.9 million tons; at 45 ports, it was 2723.4 million tons, a week - on - week increase of 242.9 million tons; and at six northern ports, it was 1358.5 million tons, a week - on - week increase of 79.8 million tons [7]. - From December 8th to 14th, 2025, the global iron ore shipment volume was 3592.5 million tons, a week - on - week increase of 224.0 million tons. The total shipment volume from Australia and Brazil was 2965.5 million tons, a week - on - week increase of 310.2 million tons. The Australian shipment volume was 2052.6 million tons, a week - on - week increase of 85.2 million tons, and the volume shipped to China was 1702.1 million tons, a week - on - week increase of 113.9 million tons. The Brazilian shipment volume was 912.9 million tons, a week - on - week increase of 225.0 million tons [7].

投资咨询系列报告 投资咨询系列报告 | 策略：稳健者观望，激进者高抛低吸。建议做好仓位管理，严格止损止盈。 | | --- | | 表1 黄金相关数据： | | 数据类别 | 指标 | 单位 | 最新 | 较上日 | | 较上周/前值 | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 国际价格 | Comex黄金主力合约收盘价 | 美元/盎司 | 4329.80 | 20.50 | 0.48% | 102.10 | 2.42% | | | 伦敦金 | 美元/盎司 | 4346.95 | 116.60 | 2.76% | 103.95 | 2.45% | | 国内价格 | 沪金主力收盘价（上期所） | 元/克 | 983.16 | 12.50 | 1.29% | 24.46 | 2.55% | | | 黄金T+D收盘价（上金所） | 元/克 | 977.06 | 12.26 | 1.27% | 23.63 | 2.48% | | 基差与价差、比价 | 沪金主力-伦敦金 | 元/克 | -4.73 | 7.61 | -62% | 2.54 | -35% ...

投资咨询系列报告 山金期货黑色板块日报 一、螺纹、热卷 更新时间：2025年12月15日08时26分 报告导读： 供需方面，上周的数据显示螺纹、热卷产量环比上周均下降，五大品种产量环比回落，整体库存继续回落，热卷的库存仍明显高于历年同期，螺纹 去库压力相对较小。本周表观需求整体回落，市场处于供需双弱的状态。由于钢厂毛利大幅回落，且消费高峰期过去，钢厂产量有望继续缓慢下降 。近期煤焦价格也出现了走弱迹象 ，钢材成本支撑减弱。整体来看，在消费淡季，供需双弱，且库存压力仍较大。短期来看，钢材出口许可制度的 调整以及生产许可证制度方面的变化对市场仍有一定的压力 。从技术上看，在日 K 线图上，05 合约整体依然是震荡走势，隔夜低开高走，上方存在 较大的阻力。 操作建议： 多单可轻仓持有，如果后市继续下跌，且形成新的下行趋势，可以适当减仓或平仓离场。当前的位置不建议做空。 表1：螺纹、热卷相关数据 数据类别 指标 单位 最新 较上日 较上周 期现货价格 螺纹钢主力合约收盘价 元/吨 3060 -9 -0.29% -97 -3.07% 热轧卷板主力合约收盘价 元/吨 3232 -6 -0.19% -88 -2.65% 螺 ...

投资咨询系列报告 山金期货贵金属策略报告 更新时间：2025年12月12日16时24分 一、黄金 报告导读： 今日贵金属震荡偏强，沪金主力收涨1.33%，沪银主力收涨3.75%，铂金主力收涨1.89%，钯金主力收涨涨1.08%。①核心逻辑， 短期避险方面，贸易战避险消退，地缘异动风险仍在；美国就业走弱通胀温和，降息预期放缓。②避险属性方面，中美经贸磋商成 果共识公布。中东、俄乌等地缘异动风险仍存。美国扣押首艘委内瑞拉油轮后，拟再拦截更多船只。③货币属性方面，美国初请失 业金人数创近四年半最大增幅。美联储在重重分歧中下调利率，暗示将暂停行动明年或仅降息一次。鲍威尔指出，利率政策已处于 良好位置，可以应对未来经济走势，但他拒绝就近期是否会再次降息提供指引。目前市场预期美联储26年1月不降息概率维持在 80%附近，下次降息或到4月。美元指数和美债收益率震荡偏弱；④商品属性方面，白银受到供应偏紧支撑。铂金氢能产业铂基催 化剂需求预期强劲。钯金长期面临燃油车市场结构性压力。CRB商品指数震荡偏弱，人民币升值利空内价格。⑤预计贵金属短期金 弱银强，铂强钯弱，中期高位震荡，长期阶梯上行。 | 策略：稳健者观望，激进者高抛低 ...

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content Core Viewpoints - Today, precious metals showed high-level differentiation. Shanghai Gold's main contract closed up 0.21%, Shanghai Silver's main contract closed up 3.07%, Platinum's main contract closed down 0.48%, and Palladium's main contract closed down 0.68% [1] - In the short - term, trade - war related hedging has subsided, but geopolitical risks remain. The US employment is weakening and inflation is moderate, leading to a slowdown in interest - rate cut expectations [1] - The Fed cut the interest rate with internal differences, hinting at a pause in action and possibly only one rate cut next year. The current market expects the probability of no rate cut in January 2026 to remain around 80%, and the next possible rate cut may be in April [1] - Precious metals are expected to be weakly volatile in the short - term, highly volatile in the medium - term, and to rise step - by - step in the long - term [1] - The price trend of gold is the anchor for the price of silver. In terms of capital, CFTC silver net long positions and iShare silver ETF have slightly increased their positions. In terms of inventory, the recent visible inventory of silver has slightly increased [5] Summary by Directory 1. Gold - **Price Performance**: Comex gold's main contract closed at $4258.30 per ounce, up 0.51% from the previous day and 0.55% from last week. London gold was at $4200.15 per ounce, up 0.05% from the previous day and down 0.24% from last week. Shanghai Gold's main contract closed at 957.90 yuan per gram, up 0.16% from the previous day and 0.47% from last week [2] - **Position and Inventory**: Comex gold's position was 459,997 lots (100 ounces per lot), Shanghai Gold's main contract position decreased by 0.25% from the previous day and 2.76% from last week. LBMA gold inventory was 8598 tons with no change, Comex gold inventory decreased by 1.08% from last week [2] - **Investment Strategy**: For gold, conservative investors are advised to wait and see, while aggressive investors can buy low and sell high. Good position management and strict stop - loss and take - profit are recommended [2] 2. Silver - **Price Performance**: Comex silver's main contract closed at $62.20 per ounce, up 1.70% from the previous day and 5.55% from last week. London silver was at $61.04 per ounce, up 4.10% from the previous day and 4.57% from last week. Shanghai Silver's main contract closed at 14,488 yuan per kilogram, up 0.80% from the previous day and 7.93% from last week [6] - **Position and Inventory**: LBMA silver inventory increased by 10.60% from last week, Comex silver inventory decreased by 0.07% from last week, and Shanghai Silver's inventory increased by 19.34% from last week [6] - **Investment Strategy**: Similar to gold, conservative investors are advised to wait and see, while aggressive investors can buy low and sell high. Good position management and strict stop - loss and take - profit are recommended [6] 3. Fundamental Key Data - **Fed - related Data**: The upper limit of the federal funds target rate is 3.75%, the discount rate is 4.00%, and the reserve balance interest rate (IORB) is 3.65%, all decreased by 0.25% compared to before. The Fed's total assets are $6586.185 billion, down $164.12 billion from before [8] - **Inflation Data**: The year - on - year CPI is 3.00%, the month - on - month CPI is 0.30%, the year - on - year core CPI is 3.00%, and the month - on - month core CPI is 0.30% [10] - **Economic Growth Data**: The annualized year - on - year GDP is 2.00%, and the annualized quarter - on - quarter GDP is 3.80% [10] - **Employment Data**: The unemployment rate is 4.40%, and the monthly change in non - farm payrolls is 11.90 million [10] - **Other Data**: The geopolitical risk index is 123.60, down 22.89% from before; the VIX index is 15.77, down 6.85% from the previous day and 1.93% from last week; the CRB commodity index is 301.38, up 0.58% from the previous day and down 0.84% from last week [11] 4. Fed's Latest Interest Rate Expectations - The probability of the Fed keeping the interest rate in the 350 - 375 range in January 2026 is 77.9%. The probability distribution of interest - rate ranges changes over different meeting dates from 2026 to 2027 [12]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content 2. Core Viewpoints - Today, precious metals showed high - level differentiation. Shanghai Gold's main contract closed up 0.26%, Shanghai Silver's main contract closed up 5.44%, platinum's main contract closed up 1.08%, and palladium's main contract closed up 1.08% [1] - In the short - term, trade - war - related避险 has subsided, but geopolitical risks remain. The US job market is weakening, inflation is moderate, and there are still expectations of interest rate cuts [1] - The possibility of the Fed cutting interest rates has increased. The US economic activity has changed little, but the government shutdown has suppressed demand in many places. The market is waiting for more economic data. Currently, the market expects an 80%+ probability of a 25 - basis - point interest rate cut by the Fed in December [1] - It is expected that in the short - term, gold will be weak and silver strong, platinum will be strong and palladium weak. In the medium - term, they will fluctuate at high levels, and in the long - term, they will rise step - by - step [1] - The price trend of gold is the anchor for the price of silver. In terms of funds, the net long position of CFTC silver and the iShare silver ETF have slightly increased positions. In terms of inventory, the recent explicit inventory of silver has slightly increased [7] 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Gold Market Performance - Shanghai Gold's main contract closed up 0.26%, Comex gold's main contract closed at $4236.60 per ounce, up 0.40% from the previous day, and London gold closed at $4198.00 per ounce, up 0.23% from the previous day [1][2] - The closing price of Shanghai Gold's main contract (SHFE) was 956.40 yuan per gram, up 0.51% from the previous day [2] Core Logic - Short - term: Trade - war - related避险 has subsided, geopolitical risks remain, US employment is weakening, inflation is moderate, and interest - rate - cut expectations remain [1] - 避险 attribute: There are discussions about ending the Ukraine war, and there are still geopolitical risks in the Middle East [1] - Monetary attribute: The possibility of Fed rate cuts has increased, the US economic activity has changed little, and the market is waiting for more economic data [1] - Commodity attribute: The CRB commodity index fluctuates weakly, the RMB appreciation is negative for domestic prices. Silver is supported by tight supply, platinum has strong demand expectations for platinum - based catalysts in the hydrogen - energy industry, and palladium faces long - term structural pressure in the fuel - vehicle market [1] Strategy - Conservative investors should wait and see, while aggressive investors can buy low and sell high. It is recommended to manage positions well and set strict stop - losses and take - profits [3] Silver Market Performance - Comex silver's main contract closed at $61.16 per ounce, up 4.55% from the previous day, and London silver closed at $58.63 per ounce, up 0.44% from the previous day [8] - The closing price of Shanghai Silver's main contract (SHFE) was 14373.00 yuan per kilogram, up 5.63% from the previous day [8] Strategy - Conservative investors should wait and see, while aggressive investors can buy low and sell high. It is recommended to manage positions well and set strict stop - losses and take - profits [8] Fundamental Key Data Monetary Attribute - Federal funds target rate upper limit: 4.00%, down 0.25% from the previous value; discount rate: 4.00%, down 0.25% from the previous value; reserve balance rate (IORB): 3.90%, down 0.25% from the previous value [10] - The Fed's total assets were $65861.85 billion, down 0.00% from the previous value [10] - M2 (year - on - year): 4.65%, up 0.22% from the previous value; 10 - year US Treasury real yield: 2.51, up 0.80% from the previous day, up 2.03% from the previous week [10] - US Treasury spreads, inflation data, economic growth data, labor market data, real estate market data, consumption data, industrial data, trade data, and economic survey data are also provided [12] 避险 Attribute - Geopolitical risk index: 123.60, up 14.93% from the previous day, down 27.38% from the previous week; VIX index: 16.93, up 1.62% from the previous day, up 2.05% from the previous week [13] Commodity Attribute - CRB commodity index: 299.63, down 0.61% from the previous day, down 0.87% from the previous week; offshore RMB: 7.0685, up 0.10% from the previous week [13] Fed's Interest Rate Expectation - According to the CME FedWatch tool, the market's expectations for the Fed's interest - rate changes from December 10, 2025, to October 27, 2027, are presented [14]