Shan Jin Qi Huo

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山金期货黑色板块日报-20250418
Shan Jin Qi Huo· 2025-04-18 02:23
投资咨询系列报告 山金期货黑色板块日报 一、螺纹、热卷 更新时间:2025年04月18日08时17分 报告导读: 美对中国加征 245%的关税, 贸易紧张局势扰动市场,全球资本市场剧烈波动,拖累黑色系商品。 进入四月之后,下游需求进入高峰期,我的钢铁 最新的数据显示,上周螺纹钢产量有所下降,厂库回落,社库下降,总库存继续下降,表需环比继续上涨。房地产方面,核心城市土地拍卖市场热 度快速回升,或预示房地产市场将逐步企稳回升 ,但全国范围来看,低线城市房地产市场仍在筑底过程中 。贸易战对板材下游消费以及出口均将构 成一定的负面冲击,预计近期会有政策面的对冲措施出台 。从技术上看,期价跌破了前期的点后有所反弹,短线面临一定的不确定性。 操作建议: 空单可以轻仓持有 表1:螺纹、热卷相关数据 数据类别 指标 单位 最新 较上日 较上周 | | 螺纹钢主力合约收盘价 | 元/吨 | 3092 | -1 | -0.03% | -47 | -1.50% | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 期现货价格 | 热轧卷板主力合约收盘价 | 元/吨 | 3191 ...
山金期货原油日报-20250418
Shan Jin Qi Huo· 2025-04-18 01:47
投资咨询系列报告 山金期货原油日报 更新时间:2025年04月18日08时16分 | 原油 | | | | | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 数据类别 | 指标 | 单位 | 4月17日 | | 较上日 | | 较上周 | | | | | | | 绝对值 | 百分比 | 绝对值 | 百分比 | | | 原油期货 | Sc | 元/桶 | 482.70 | 15.50 | | 3.32% | 4.30 | 0.90% | | | WTI | 美元/桶 | 64.45 | 1.85 | | 2.96% | 4.22 | 7.01% | | | Brent | 美元/桶 | 67.85 | 1.79 | | 2.71% | 4.45 | 7.02% | | 内外价差 | Sc-WTI | 美元/桶 | 2.51 | 0.34 | | 15.83% | -3.62 | -59.01% | | | Sc-Brent | 美元/桶 | -0.89 | 0.40 | | -31.25% | -3.85 | -129.98% ...
山金期货贵金属策略报告-20250417
Shan Jin Qi Huo· 2025-04-17 11:00
山金期货贵金属策略报告 更新时间:2025年04月17日16时27分 一、黄金 报告导读: 投资咨询系列报告 今日贵金属震荡收涨,沪金主力收涨2.18%,沪银主力收跌0.23%。①核心逻辑,短期特朗普贸易战风险阶段兑现,"去美元化" 加速;美国经济滞涨风险增加,美债真实收益率预期下行。②避险属性方面,特朗普对等关税兑现,中美仍存升级可能。VIX低位 上行。贸易战推动各国央行减持美债,增持黄金;③货币属性方面,鲍威尔称政策调整需等更多数据,否认"美联储托底"可能性 。美联储理事沃勒最新表示,关税或导致美联储在通胀较高情况下降息以避免经济衰退。美国通胀与劳动力市场仍存韧性。目前市 场预期美联储下次降息至6月,预期25年总降息空间重回75基点左右。美元指数跌至10年年线附近下行趋缓,美债收益率震荡偏 弱;④商品属性方面,CRB商品指数震荡下行,人民币贬值利多国内价格。⑤预计贵金属短期震荡偏弱,中期高位震荡,长期阶梯 上行。 策略:稳健者观望,激进者高抛低吸。建议做好仓位管理,严格止损止盈。 表1 黄金相关数据: | 数据类别 | 指标 | 单位 | 最新 | 较上日 | | 较上周/前值 | | | --- | - ...
山金期货贵金属策略报告-20250416
Shan Jin Qi Huo· 2025-04-16 13:36
投资咨询系列报告 山金期货贵金属策略报告 更新时间:2025年04月16日16时52分 投资咨询系列报告 二、白银 一、黄金 报告导读: 今日贵金属震荡收涨,沪金主力收涨2.68%,沪银主力收涨1.50%。①核心逻辑,短期特朗普贸易战风险阶段兑现,"去美元化" 加速;美国经济滞涨风险增加,美债真实收益率预期下行。②避险属性方面,特朗普对等关税兑现,中美短期出现希望谈判声音, 后期仍存升级可能。VIX低位上行。贸易战推动各国央行减持美债,增持黄金;③货币属性方面,美国3月进口物价意外下降,但 关税恐很快开始刺激通胀。美联储理事沃勒最新表示,关税或导致美联储在通胀较高情况下降息以避免经济衰退。美国通胀与劳动 力市场仍存韧性。目前市场预期美联储下次降息至6月,预期25年总降息空间重回100基点左右。美元指数跌至10年年线附近下行 趋缓,美债收益率震荡偏弱;④商品属性方面,CRB商品指数震荡下行,人民币贬值利多国内价格。⑤预计贵金属短期震荡偏强, 中期高位震荡,长期阶梯上行。 策略:稳健者观望,激进者高抛低吸。建议做好仓位管理,严格止损止盈。 表1 黄金相关数据: | 数据类别 | 指标 | 单位 | 最新 | 较上 ...
山金期货黑色板块日报-20250416
Shan Jin Qi Huo· 2025-04-16 02:18
投资咨询系列报告 山金期货黑色板块日报 一、螺纹、热卷 更新时间:2025年04月16日08时14分 报告导读: 最近贸易紧张局势扰动市场,全球资本市场剧烈波动,拖累黑色系商品。 进入四月之后,下游需求进入高峰期,继续上升的空间有限,且不排除有 回落的可能。我的钢铁最新的数据显示,上周螺纹钢产量有所增加,厂库由降转增,社库回落,总库存继续下降,表需环比继续上涨,但涨幅已经 明显放缓。房地产方面,核心城市土地拍卖市场热度快速回升 ,或预示房地产市场将逐步企稳回升 ,但全国范围来看,低线城市房地产市场仍在筑 底过程中。贸易战对板材下游消费以及出口均将构成一定的负面冲击 ,预计近期会有政策面的对冲措施出台 。从技术上看,期价跌破了前期的点后 有所反弹,短线后面临一定的不确定性。 操作建议: 空单可以轻仓持有 | | | | 表1:螺纹、热卷相关数据 | | | | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 数据类别 | 指标 | 单位 | 最新 | | 较上日 | | 较上周 | | | 螺纹钢主力合约收盘价 | 元/吨 | 3125 | ...
山金期货黑色板块日报-20250415
Shan Jin Qi Huo· 2025-04-15 06:02
1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - Trade tensions are disturbing the market, causing significant fluctuations in global capital markets and dragging down black - series commodities. The downstream demand has reached its peak in April, with limited room for further increase and a possible decline. There may be policy - based hedging measures due to the negative impact of the trade war on plate consumption and exports [2]. - In the real estate sector, the land auction market in core cities is heating up, indicating a potential stabilization and recovery, but the real - estate market in lower - tier cities is still at the bottoming stage [2][3]. - For iron ore, the global trade tensions are a major concern. Although downstream demand in April may support prices, the supply is at a relatively high level, and the iron - water production increase is expected to be limited. The future price is likely to fluctuate downward [3]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs 3.1. Threaded Steel and Hot - Rolled Coil - **Market Situation**: Trade tensions and the peak - stage downstream demand affect the market. The production of threaded steel increased last week, the factory inventory turned from decreasing to increasing, the social inventory decreased, and the total inventory continued to decline. The apparent demand increased but at a slower pace. The trade war has a negative impact on plate consumption and exports [2]. - **Technical Analysis**: The futures price rebounded after breaking through the previous low, with short - term uncertainty [2]. - **Operation Suggestion**: Hold short positions lightly [2]. - **Data Summary**: - **Price**: The closing price of the threaded - steel main contract was 3126 yuan/ton, down 0.64% from last week; the hot - rolled coil main contract was 3242 yuan/ton, down 0.58% from last week. The spot prices of both showed some changes, with the threaded - steel spot price up 0.32% from the previous day and the hot - rolled coil up 0.31% [2]. - **Base and Spread**: The main - contract base of threaded steel was 44 yuan/ton, up 20 yuan from last week; the hot - rolled coil was 18 yuan/ton, down 11 yuan from last week. Various spreads also had different changes [2]. - **Production and Inventory**: The production of threaded steel increased by 1.63% week - on - week, while the hot - rolled coil production decreased by 2.91%. The social inventory of five major steel products decreased by 3.19%, and the factory inventory increased by 1.95% [2]. 3.2. Iron Ore - **Market Situation**: Global trade tensions are the focus. Downstream demand in April may support prices, but the supply is at a high level, and the iron - water production increase is limited [3]. - **Technical Analysis**: The futures price dropped significantly after breaking through the previous low and then stabilized and rebounded. It is expected to fluctuate downward in the future [3]. - **Operation Suggestion**: Hold short positions lightly [4]. - **Data Summary**: - **Price**: The settlement price of the DCE iron - ore main contract was 706 yuan/dry ton, down 7.41% from last week. The prices of various iron - ore powders in ports also had different changes [4]. - **Base and Spread**: The base and various spreads of iron - ore futures showed different trends, such as the DCE iron - ore futures 9 - 1 spread being 26.5 yuan/dry ton, up 6 yuan from last week [4]. - **Supply - related Data**: Australian iron - ore shipments increased slightly, while Brazilian shipments decreased by 4.21%. The port inventory decreased by 0.88% [4]. 3.3. Industry News - From April 7 - 13, 2025, the total iron - ore arrivals at 47 ports in China were 2617.9 million tons, a week - on - week increase of 258.8 million tons; at 45 ports, it was 2525.5 million tons, a week - on - week increase of 336.8 million tons [5]. - On April 14, some steel mills in Tangshan and Xingtai raised the prices of wet - quenched and dry - quenched coke, effective from April 15 [5]. - In March 2025, China imported 9397.4 million tons of iron ore and concentrates, with a total of 28531.2 million tons from January - March. The exports of steel products in March were 1045.6 million tons, with a total of 2742.9 million tons from January - March [6]. - As of the week ending April 11, the total manganese - ore inventory in ports increased by 4 million tons [6]. - In April, the new - order quotation of glass increased by about 0.5 yuan/square meter, but due to the decline in component prices, the negotiation between upstream and downstream enterprises is deadlocked, and the transaction center is expected to decline [6].
山金期货黑色板块日报-20250414
Shan Jin Qi Huo· 2025-04-14 03:08
投资咨询系列报告 山金期货黑色板块日报 一、螺纹、热卷 更新时间:2025年04月14日08时24分 报告导读: 最近贸易紧张局势扰动市场,全球资本市场剧烈波动,拖累黑色系商品。 进入四月之后,下游需求进入高峰期,继续上升的空间有限,且不排除有 回落的可能。我的钢铁最新的数据显示,上周螺纹钢产量有所增加,厂库由降转增,社库回落,总库存继续下降,表需环比继续上涨,但涨幅已经 明显放缓。房地产方面,核心城市土地拍卖市场热度快速回升 ,或预示房地产市场将逐步企稳回升 ,但全国范围来看,低线城市房地产市场仍在筑 底过程中。贸易战对板材下游消费以及出口均将构成一定的负面冲击 ,预计近期会有政策面的对冲措施出台 。从技术上看,期价跌破了前期的点后 有所反弹,短线后面临一定的不确定性。 操作建议: 空单可以轻仓持有,但如果后市期价继续反弹,则意味着本轮下跌的结束,空单则需要及时逢低离场。 | 表1:螺纹、热卷相关数据 | | | | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 数据类别 | 指标 | 单位 | 最新 | | 较上日 | | 较上周 ...
山金期货黑色板块日报-20250411
Shan Jin Qi Huo· 2025-04-11 01:08
投资咨询系列报告 山金期货黑色板块日报 更新时间:2025年04月11日08时24分 一、螺纹、热卷 报告导读: 最近两天贸易紧张局势扰动市场,全球资本市场剧烈波动,拖累黑色系商品。 进入四月之后,下游需求进入高峰期。我的钢铁最新的数据显示,本 周螺纹钢产量有所增加,厂库由降转增,社库回落,总库存继续下降,表需环比继续上涨,需求已经进入到高峰期。房地产方面,核心城市土地拍 卖市场热度快速回升,或预示房地产市场将逐步企稳回升 ,但全国范围来看,低线城市房地产市场仍在筑底过程中 。贸易战对板材下游消费以及出 口均将构成一定的负面冲击。从技术上看,期价跌破了前期的点,在悲观市场氛围下,有可能继续探底。 操作建议: 逢高轻仓做空 表1:螺纹、热卷相关数据 | 数据类别 | 指标 | 单位 | 最新 | | 较上日 | | 较上周 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 期现货价格 | 螺纹钢主力合约收盘价 | 元/吨 | 3139 | 51 | 1.65% | -25 | -0.79% | | | 热轧卷板主力合约收盘价 | 元/吨 | 3255 | ...
山金期货贵金属策略报告-20250410
Shan Jin Qi Huo· 2025-04-10 10:50
1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The short - term risk of Trump's trade war has been partially realized, and the "de - dollarization" process has accelerated. The US economy shows more signs of weakness, but Fed officials are cautious about interest rate cuts [2]. - In terms of the safe - haven attribute, Trump's reciprocal tariffs have been implemented, and there is still a possibility of escalation between China and the US. The VIX index has risen from a low level. The trade war has prompted central banks around the world to reduce their holdings of US Treasuries and increase their gold reserves [2]. - Regarding the monetary attribute, the Fed meeting minutes show that most participants believe inflation may be more persistent. The US labor market remains resilient, with non - farm payrolls significantly exceeding expectations. The US inflation also remains resilient, with the core PCE price index in February rising 2.8% year - on - year, exceeding the expected 2.7%. The market currently expects the Fed's next interest rate cut to be in June, and the expected total interest rate cut space in 2025 has returned to around 75 basis points. The US dollar index has declined again, and the US Treasury yield has rebounded significantly [2]. - From the perspective of the commodity attribute, the CRB commodity index has fluctuated downward, and the depreciation of the RMB is beneficial to domestic prices [2]. - It is expected that precious metals will be volatile and bullish in the short term, fluctuate at a high level in the medium term, and rise step - by - step in the long term [2]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Gold - **Price Performance**: Today, precious metals fluctuated upward. The main contract of Shanghai gold closed up 3.21%, and the main contract of Shanghai silver closed up 3.44%. International and domestic gold prices showed different changes, with Comex gold rising 3.39% from the previous day, and Shanghai gold rising 2.24% [2][3]. - **Core Logic**: Short - term Trump trade war risk realization, "de - dollarization" acceleration, US economic weakness, and Fed's cautious attitude towards interest rate cuts [2]. - **Attributes Analysis**: Safe - haven attribute is affected by trade war and VIX index; monetary attribute is related to inflation, labor market, and Fed's interest rate expectations; commodity attribute is influenced by CRB index and RMB exchange rate [2]. - **Strategy**: Conservative investors should wait and see, while aggressive investors can buy low and sell high. Good position management and strict stop - loss and take - profit are recommended [4]. Silver - **Price Anchor**: The gold price trend is the anchor for the silver price [6]. - **Fund and Inventory**: CFTC silver net long positions and iShare silver ETF have recently reduced their positions. The visible inventory of silver has increased slightly recently [6]. - **Strategy**: Similar to gold, conservative investors should wait and see, and aggressive investors can buy low and sell high with proper position management and stop - loss and take - profit [7]. Fundamental Key Data - **Fed - related Data**: Federal fund target rate upper limit, discount rate, and reserve balance interest rate have all decreased by 0.25%. The Fed's total assets are 67743.25 billion US dollars, a decrease of 169.14 billion US dollars from the previous period [9]. - **Inflation and Yield**: Ten - year US Treasury real yield is 2.46, up 0.10 (4.24%) from the previous day and 0.21 (9.33%) from the previous week. CPI and core CPI have shown certain changes [9][11]. - **Exchange Rate and Spread**: The US dollar index is 102.95, down 0.01 (- 0.01%) from the previous day and 0.81 (- 0.78%) from the previous week. Various bond spreads have also changed [9][11]. - **Other Data**: Data on M2, GDP, employment, real estate, consumption, industry, trade, and other aspects have shown different trends [9][11]. Fed's Latest Interest Rate Expectations - The probability of different interest rate ranges at different Fed meeting dates from 2025 to 2026 is provided, showing the market's expectations for the Fed's interest rate adjustments [13].
山金期货原油日报-20250410
Shan Jin Qi Huo· 2025-04-10 01:21
投资咨询系列报告 山金期货原油日报 更新时间:2025年04月10日08时19分 | 原油 | | | | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 数据类别 | 指标 | 单位 | 4月9日 | 较上日 | | 较上周 | | | | | | | 绝对值 | 百分比 | 绝对值 | 百分比 | | | Sc | 元/桶 | 457.60 | -21.00 | -4.39% | -98.50 | -17.71% | | 原油期货 | WTI | 美元/桶 | 62.71 | 4.48 | 7.69% | -8.43 | -11.85% | | | Brent | 美元/桶 | 65.72 | 4.10 | 6.65% | -8.79 | -11.80% | | | Sc-WTI | 美元/桶 | 0.79 | -7.42 | -90.41% | -5.55 | -87.58% | | 内外价差 | Sc-Brent | 美元/桶 | -2.22 | -7.04 | -146.14% | -5.19 | -174.88% | | | ...