Report Industry Investment Rating There is no information provided in the report regarding the industry investment rating. Core Viewpoints - Today, precious metals showed a pattern of weak gold and strong silver, with the main contract of Shanghai gold closing down 0.41% and the main contract of Shanghai silver closing up 0.64%. The short - term core logic includes: in terms of short - term hedging, trade agreements are being reached in batches, but concerns about the Fed's independence have resurfaced; the risk of stagflation in the US economy has increased, employment has weakened, inflation is moderate, and the Fed's interest - rate cut expectations are starting to materialize. Geopolitical uncertainties still exist in regions such as Russia - Ukraine and the Middle East. The Fed cut interest rates by 25 basis points and hinted at further rate cuts. The market expects a 90%+ probability of a 25 - basis - point rate cut in October and about 2 more rate cuts this year. It is expected that precious metals will fluctuate at high levels in the short term and rise step - by - step in the long term [2]. - The price trend of gold is the anchor for the price of silver. In terms of capital, the net long position of CFTC silver decreased slightly, and the iShare silver ETF increased slightly. In terms of inventory, the recent visible inventory of silver increased slightly [6]. Summary by Section Gold - **Strategy**: Conservative investors should wait and see, while aggressive investors can buy on dips. It is recommended to manage positions well and set strict stop - losses and take - profits [3]. - **Data Summary**: International gold prices (Comex gold and London gold) increased, and domestic gold prices (Shanghai gold and gold T + D) also rose. The basis and spreads, and various ratios showed different changes. The positions of Comex gold increased, while the positions of Shanghai gold main contract decreased. The inventories of LBMA and Shanghai gold remained stable, while the Comex gold inventory decreased slightly. The net long position of CFTC management funds decreased, and the SPDR gold ETF inventory decreased slightly [3]. - **Net Position Ranking**: In the top 10 net long position ranking of Shanghai gold futures company members, the total net long positions of the top 5, 10, and 20 all increased. In the top 10 net short position ranking, the total net short positions of the top 5, 10, and 20 also increased [4]. Silver - **Strategy**: Similar to gold, conservative investors should wait and see, and aggressive investors can buy on dips. Position management and strict stop - losses and take - profits are recommended [7]. - **Data Summary**: International silver prices (Comex silver and London silver) showed mixed trends, and domestic silver prices (Shanghai silver and silver T + D) increased. The basis and spreads changed. The positions of Comex silver decreased, while the positions of Shanghai silver main contract increased. The visible inventory of silver increased slightly. The net long position of CFTC management funds decreased, and the iShare silver ETF inventory increased [7]. - **Net Position Ranking**: In the top 10 net long position ranking of Shanghai silver futures company members, the total net long positions of the top 5, 10, and 20 all increased. In the top 10 net short position ranking, the total net short positions of the top 5, 10, and 20 also increased [8]. Fundamental Key Data - **Fed - Related Data**: The upper limit of the federal funds target rate and the discount rate decreased by 0.25%. The Fed's total assets increased slightly. M2 increased year - on - year. The 10 - year US Treasury real yield, the US dollar index, and the VIX index increased, while the geopolitical risk index decreased significantly [9][12]. - **Interest Rate Spreads and Inflation**: The US - EU and US - China interest rate spreads (10 - year bond yields) increased. The CPI, core CPI, PCE price index, and core PCE price index all showed different degrees of change. The inflation expectations of the University of Michigan also changed [11]. - **Economic Indicators**: GDP growth showed different trends in annualized year - on - year and quarter - on - quarter terms. The unemployment rate increased, and non - farm payrolls decreased. The labor participation rate decreased, and average hourly wage growth slowed down. Other economic indicators in the labor market, real estate market, consumption, industry, trade, and economic surveys also showed various changes [11]. - **Central Bank Gold Reserves and Foreign Exchange Reserves**: The central bank gold reserves of China increased slightly, while those of the US remained stable. The proportion of the US dollar in IMF foreign exchange reserves increased, while the proportion of the euro decreased. The ratio of gold to foreign exchange reserves increased globally and in China and the US [12]. - **Fed Interest Rate Expectations**: According to the CME FedWatch tool, the market has different expectations for the Fed's interest rate range in different periods from October 2025 to October 2027 [13].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The "anti - involution" policy hype in the black sector has led to general price increases. For the steel market, there are differences in the demand recovery between rebar and hot - rolled coils, with the former being slower and the latter faster. For the iron ore market, the supply is at a high level, and the port inventory shows signs of stabilization. Technical breakthroughs need further observation [2][5]. - In the steel market, the policy aims to rectify low - price and disorderly competition, promote the withdrawal of backward production capacity, and guide enterprises to improve product quality [2]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Rebar and Hot - Rolled Coils - **Policy Impact**: The publication of General Secretary Xi Jinping's important article in Qiushi magazine triggers market speculation about the implementation of the "anti - involution" policy, with a consistent policy tone compared to the article on July 1 [2]. - **Supply and Demand**: Rebar production has decreased for two consecutive weeks, factory inventory has changed from an increase to a decrease, apparent demand has decreased for two consecutive weeks, and social inventory has increased for nine consecutive weeks. The total production of five major steel products has decreased by 3.4 million tons week - on - week, factory inventory has decreased by 3.5 million tons, social inventory has increased by 17.4 million tons, and total inventory has increased by 13.9 million tons. Apparent demand has increased by 15.5 million tons week - on - week, with the apparent demand of hot - rolled coils increasing by 20.8 million tons. Currently, the demand for rebar recovers slowly, while that for hot - rolled coils recovers quickly [2][3]. - **Technical Analysis**: Rebar has broken through the pressure of the upper 10 - day moving average on the daily K - line chart, and hot - rolled coils have broken through the pressure of the middle Bollinger Band, showing a short - term strong rebound [2]. - **Operation Suggestion**: Maintain a wait - and - see attitude, be cautious about chasing up, and treat it with a wide - range oscillation mindset [3]. 3.2 Iron Ore - **Market Trend**: The resurgence of "anti - involution" speculation has led to a general rise in the black sector, and iron ore has followed suit. The profitability of sample steel mills has recently declined, mainly due to the sharp increase in coke spot prices and the decline in steel prices. The iron ore supply is at a high level globally, and port inventory shows signs of stabilization, but there is a possibility of inventory increase during the consumption peak season [5]. - **Technical Analysis**: After the 01 contract forms an upward breakthrough, it enters an oscillation state. Whether it is a real breakthrough remains to be seen [5]. - **Operation Suggestion**: Maintain a wait - and - see attitude. If the upward breakthrough is proven to be a false one, try to enter the market to short. If an upward effective breakthrough is formed, consider short - term and light - position long - buying on dips [5]. 3.3 Industry News - **Production Data**: In August, China's crude steel production was 77.37 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of 0.7%; pig iron production was 69.79 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 1.0%; and steel production was 122.77 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 9.7% [7]. - **Tariff Policy**: The United States has opened a "tariff inclusion window" for steel and aluminum under Section 232, planning to impose tariffs on more steel and aluminum derivatives [8]. - **Coal Mine Shutdown**: Two coal mines in Shanxi have shut down, with uncertain复产 times. One in Lvliang Zhongyang has a production capacity of 1.2 million tons, and the other in Linfen Guxian has a production capacity of 0.9 million tons [8]. - **Iron Ore Shipment**: From September 8th to September 14th, the global iron ore shipment volume was 35.731 million tons, a week - on - week increase of 8.169 million tons. The shipment volume from Australia and Brazil was 29.778 million tons, a week - on - week increase of 6.482 million tons [8]. - **Coke Price Adjustment**: On September 15th, steel mills in the Hebei market lowered the coke purchase price by 50/55 yuan per ton [9]. - **Steel Inventory**: In early September 2025, the steel inventory of key steel enterprises was 15.82 million tons, a week - on - week increase of 0.84 million tons, or 5.6% [10].

投资咨询系列报告 山金期货黑色板块日报 一、螺纹、热卷 更新时间：2025年09月15日08时18分 目前市场的焦点已经转为验证下游的实际需求情况 ，"反内卷"政策的落地情况对行情有一定的扰动 。由于目前房地产仍处震荡筑底过程中 ，市场担 忧未来需求的恢复仍有可能不及预期 。供需方面，我的钢铁公布的数据显示，螺纹钢产量连续两周下降、厂库由增转降，表需连续两周减少，社库 连续第九周增加。五大品种总产量环比下降3.4万吨，厂库下降3.5万吨，社库增加17.4万吨，总库存增加13.9万吨，表观需求环比增加15.5万吨，其 中热卷的表观需求增加了20.8万吨。目前螺纹的需求恢复较慢，热卷的需求恢复较快。从技术上看，在日 K 线图上，螺纹上方 10 日均线压力非常明 显，目前热卷相对螺纹偏强，受到 60 日均线的支撑，但上方布林带中轨有一定压力。 操作建议： 空单可以继续持有，逢低及时止盈离场，以低位震荡思路对待 表1：螺纹、热卷相关数据 | 数据类别 | 指标 | 单位 | 最新 | | 较上日 | | 较上周 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | ...

投资咨询系列报告 山金期货原油日报 4、美国总统特朗普表示，他对俄罗斯总统普京的耐心正在"迅速耗尽"，并威胁要对莫斯科实施新的经济制裁，因为斡旋俄乌停火谈判的努力已经受阻。特朗普周五在接受福克 斯新闻采访时说："对银行的制裁，以及与石油和关税有关的制裁，将会造成非常严重的打击。"不过，特朗普坚称，他已经"做了很多"来惩罚俄罗斯，他指出，他扩大了对印度 购买俄罗斯能源的关税，并辩称，"这是欧洲的问题，远远超过美国的问题。" 更新时间：2025年09月15日08时37分 | | | | | | | | | | 投资咨询系列报告 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | | | 山金期货原油日报 | | | | 更新时间：2025年09月15日08时37分 | | | | 原油 | | | | | | | | | | | 数据类别 | 指标 | 单位 | 9月12日 | | 较上日 | | 较上周 | | | | | | | | 绝对值 | 百分比 | 绝对值 | | | 百分比 | | | Sc | 元/桶 | 476. ...

投资咨询系列报告 山金期货原油日报 更新时间：2025年09月12日08时15分 | 投资咨询系列报告 | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 山金期货原油日报 | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | 更新时间：2025年09月12日08时15分 | | | | | | | | | | | | | | 原油 | | 数据类别 | | 指标 | 单位 | 9月11日 | | 较上日 | | | 较上周 | | | | | | | 绝对值 | | | | | | 百分比 | | 绝对值 | | | | 百分比 | | | | Sc | | | 元/桶 | 490.80 | | 4.60 | 0.95% | | 9.80 | 2.04% | | | | | | 原油期货 | WTI | | 美元/桶 | 62.24 | | -1.51 | -2.37% | | -1.10 | -1.74 ...

投资咨询系列报告 投资咨询系列报告 山金期货原油日报 更新时间：2025年09月09日08时07分 | | | | | | | | | 投资咨询系列报告 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | | | | 山金期货原油日报 | | | | | | 原油 | | | | | | | 更新时间：2025年09月09日08时07分 | | | 数据类别 | 指标 | 单位 | 9月8日 | | 较上日 | | 较上周 | | | | | | | 绝对值 | 百分比 | 绝对值 | 百分比 | | | | Sc | 元/桶 | 490.50 | | 8.50 | 1.76% | 7.00 | 1.45% | | 原油期货 | WTI | 美元/桶 | 62.46 | | 0.49 | 0.79% | -2.15 | -3.33% | | | Brent | 美元/桶 | 66.24 | | 0.57 | 0.87% | -1.92 | -2.82% | | 内外价差 | Sc-WTI Sc-Brent | 美元/桶 美元/桶 | 6. ...

投资咨询系列报告 山金期货黑色板块日报 一、螺纹、热卷 更新时间：2025年09月08日08时24分 报告导读： 目前市场的焦点已经转为验证下游的实际需求情况 。从需求的季节性规律看，进入消费旺季后，表观需求应逐步回升，总库存有望逐步下降。由于 目前房地产仍处震荡筑底过程中，市场担忧未来需求的恢复仍有可能不及预期 。供需方面，我的钢铁公布的数据显示，螺纹钢产量因阅兵限产而下 降，表需回落，社库连续第 8 周增加。五大品种总产量下降，总库存上升，表观需求回落。随着阅兵的结束，预计未来产量仍有较大的回升空间 。 从技术上看，在日 K 线图上，螺纹和热卷已经跌破了布林带下轨的支撑 ，也跌破了 60 日均线的支撑，或将打开了下跌空间。 操作建议： 空单可以继续持有。 表1：螺纹、热卷相关数据 | 数据类别 | 指标 | 单位 | 最新 | | 较上日 | | 较上周 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | 螺纹钢主力合约收盘价 | 元/吨 | 3143 | 26 | 0.83% | -17 | -0.54% | | 期现货价格 | 热轧卷板主力合 ...

策略：稳健者观望，激进者逢低做多。建议做好仓位管理，严格止损止盈。 表1 黄金相关数据： | 数据类别 | 指标 | 单位 | 最新 | 较上日 | | 较上周/前值 | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 国际价格 | Comex黄金主力合约收盘价 | 美元/盎司 | 3599.50 | 83.40 | 2.37% | 156.30 | 4.54% | | | 伦敦金 | 美元/盎司 | 3490.00 | 15.10 | 0.43% | 122.90 | 3.65% | | 国内价格 | 沪金主力收盘价（上期所） | 元/克 | 814.88 | 10.56 | 1.31% | 33.72 | 4.32% | | | 黄金T+D收盘价（上金所） | 元/克 | 809.97 | 10.19 | 1.27% | 32.35 | 4.16% | | 基差与价差、比价 | 沪金主力-伦敦金 | 元/克 | -16.56 | -8.96 | 118% | -2.44 | 17% | | | 沪金主力基差 | 元/克 | -4.91 | -0. ...

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core View of the Report - Today, precious metals fluctuated upwards, with the main contract of Shanghai gold closing up 1.31% and the main contract of Shanghai silver closing up 0.15%. It is expected that precious metals will fluctuate upwards in the short - term, oscillate at high levels in the medium - term, and rise step - by - step in the long - term. The strategy is for conservative investors to wait and see, while aggressive investors can buy low and sell high. It is recommended to manage positions well and set strict stop - loss and take - profit levels [2]. - The price trend of gold is the anchor for the price of silver. In terms of capital, the net long positions of CFTC silver and iShare silver ETF slightly reduced. In terms of inventory, the recent visible inventory of silver slightly increased [5]. Summary by Directory 1. Gold - **Core Logic**: In the short - term, regarding risk aversion, although trade agreements are being reached in batches, concerns about European and American debts and the independence of the Federal Reserve have resurfaced. The risk of stagflation in the US economy has increased, with employment weakening and inflation being moderate, leading to a rebound in the expectation of the Fed's interest rate cuts. In terms of the risk - aversion attribute, the yield of the US 30 - year Treasury bond rose to the highest level since mid - July, following the trends in European and British bond markets, as investors worried that governments of major economies were losing control of fiscal deficits. Trump's attempt to fire Fed Governor Cook, and Cook's lawsuit against Trump for overstepping his authority, raised concerns about the Fed's independence. In terms of the monetary attribute, Powell hinted that the Fed might need to cut interest rates but would act cautiously. He announced the Fed's new policy framework, returning to a flexible inflation target. The US manufacturing PMI has shrunk for six consecutive months, and factories said that tariffs have made the situation worse than during the Great Recession. Currently, the market's expectation of the Fed's interest rate cut in September has soared from 40% before the July non - farm payrolls to about 90%, and the expected number of interest rate cuts within the year has increased from 1 to 2 - 3 times. The US dollar index and Treasury bond yields fluctuated strongly. In terms of the commodity attribute, the rebound of the CRB commodity index was under pressure, and the depreciation of the RMB was beneficial to domestic prices [2]. - **Data**: - **Prices**: Comex gold's main contract closed at $3599.50 per ounce, up 2.37% from the previous day and 4.54% from the previous week; London gold was at $3490.00 per ounce, up 0.43% from the previous day and 3.65% from the previous week; the main contract of Shanghai gold closed at 814.88 yuan per gram, up 1.31% from the previous day and 4.32% from the previous week; gold T + D closed at 809.97 yuan per gram, up 1.27% from the previous day and 4.16% from the previous week [2]. - **Positions and Inventories**: Comex gold positions were 443,760 lots, down 0.54% from the previous week; Shanghai gold's main contract positions were 142,330 lots, up 2.67% from the previous day and down 14.57% from the previous week; gold TD positions were 221,198 lots, up 1.73% from the previous day and 10.56% from the previous week. LBMA inventory was 8,598 tons, unchanged; Comex gold inventory was 1,152 tons, down 1.08% from the previous week; Shanghai gold inventory was 18 tons, up 1.32% from the previous week [2]. - **Net Positions of Futures Companies**: Among the top 10 net - long positions of Shanghai gold futures companies at the Shanghai Futures Exchange, the top 5 totaled 118,272 lots, an increase of 266 lots; the top 10 totaled 153,498 lots, a decrease of 146 lots; the top 20 totaled 195,167 lots, an increase of 1,757 lots. Among the top 10 net - short positions, the top 5 totaled 15,049 lots, an increase of 356 lots; the top 10 totaled 21,936 lots, an increase of 540 lots; the top 20 totaled 26,248 lots, an increase of 964 lots [3]. 2. Silver - **Core Logic**: The price trend of gold is the anchor for the price of silver. In terms of capital, the net long positions of CFTC silver and iShare silver ETF slightly reduced. In terms of inventory, the recent visible inventory of silver slightly increased [5]. - **Data**: - **Prices**: Comex silver's main contract closed at $41.73 per ounce, up 2.40% from the previous day and 7.84% from the previous week; London silver was at $40.52 per ounce, down 0.14% from the previous day and up 5.47% from the previous week; the main contract of Shanghai silver closed at 9,820 yuan per kilogram, down 0.04% from the previous day and up 5.53% from the previous week; silver T + D closed at 9,780 yuan per kilogram, down 0.20% from the previous day and up 5.60% from the previous week [6]. - **Positions and Inventories**: Comex silver positions were 158,630 lots, up 0.10% from the previous week; Shanghai silver's main contract positions were 4,996,200 lots, up 0.69% from the previous day and 18.68% from the previous week; silver TD positions were 3,489,224 lots, down 0.03% from the previous day and up 4.02% from the previous week. The visible inventory totaled 42,796 tons, up 0.90% from the previous week [6]. - **Net Positions of Futures Companies**: Among the top 10 net - long positions of Shanghai silver futures companies at the Shanghai Futures Exchange, the top 5 totaled 119,197 lots, an increase of 868 lots; the top 10 totaled 165,732 lots, an increase of 2,404 lots; the top 20 totaled 210,707 lots, an increase of 5,979 lots. Among the top 10 net - short positions, the top 5 totaled 48,371 lots, an increase of 1,638 lots; the top 10 totaled 77,222 lots, a decrease of 254 lots; the top 20 totaled 100,335 lots, a decrease of 1,599 lots [7]. 3. Fundamental Key Data - **Federal Reserve - related Data**: The upper limit of the federal funds target rate is 4.50%, the discount rate is 4.50%, the reserve balance interest rate (IORB) is 4.40%, and the Fed's total assets are $665.4234 billion, down $1.5239 billion from the previous value. M2 (year - on - year) is 4.82%, up 0.60 percentage points [8]. - **Other Key Indicators**: The 10 - year US Treasury real yield is 2.59, up 1.97% from the previous day and the previous week; the US dollar index is 98.32, up 0.63% from the previous day and 0.12% from the previous week; the US Treasury yield spread (3 - month - 10 - year) is 0.54, down 15.63% from the previous day [8]. - **Interest Rate Expectations**: According to the CME FedWatch tool, the market's expectations of the Fed's interest rate cuts in different meetings from September 2025 to December 2026 are presented in a table, showing the probabilities of different interest - rate ranges [12].

Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided in the content. Core Viewpoints of the Report - Gold prices are expected to be volatile and stronger in the short - term, fluctuate at high levels in the medium - term, and rise in a stepped manner in the long - term. The core logic includes increased short - term risk - aversion due to concerns about the Fed's independence and rising stagflation risks in the US economy, along with a rebound in Fed rate - cut expectations. Gold's risk - aversion, monetary, and commodity attributes also support these trends [1]. - The trend of gold prices serves as an anchor for silver prices. Currently, there is a slight reduction in CFTC silver net - long positions and iShare silver ETF holdings in terms of capital, and a slight increase in silver's visible inventory [5]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Gold - **Market Performance**: Today, precious metals were volatile and stronger, with the main Shanghai gold contract closing up 1.21%. The market now expects the probability of a Fed rate cut in September to have soared from around 40% before the non - farm payrolls report to over 90%, and the expected number of rate cuts this year has increased from 1 to 2 - 3 times [1]. - **Strategy**: Conservative investors are advised to wait and see, while aggressive investors can buy low and sell high. Good position management and strict stop - loss and take - profit are recommended [2]. - **Related Data**: - **Price**: Comex gold's main contract closed at $3516.10 per ounce, up $105.40 (3.09%) from last week; London gold was at $3474.90 per ounce, up $140.65 (4.22%) from last week. Shanghai gold's main contract closed at 804.32 yuan per gram, up 2.97% from last week [2]. - **Basis, Spread, and Ratio**: The spread between Shanghai gold's main contract and London gold was - 5.96 yuan per gram, down 25% from last week; the gold - silver ratio (London gold/London silver) was 85.64, down 2.38% from last week [2]. - **Position and Inventory**: Comex gold positions were 443,760 lots, down 0.54% from last week; Shanghai gold's main contract positions were 138,624 lots, down 20.60% from last week. LBMA gold inventory was 8,598 tons, unchanged from last week [2]. - **Net Positions of Futures Companies**: Among the top 10 net - long positions of Shanghai gold futures companies on the Shanghai Futures Exchange, the top 5 totaled 120,616 lots, an increase of 624 lots; the top 10 totaled 155,263 lots, an increase of 1,298 lots. Among the top 10 net - short positions, the top 5 totaled 13,767 lots, a decrease of 550 lots; the top 10 totaled 21,190 lots, a decrease of 672 lots [3]. Silver - **Strategy**: Similar to gold, conservative investors should wait and see, and aggressive investors can buy low and sell high. Position management and stop - loss/take - profit are crucial [6]. - **Related Data**: - **Price**: Comex silver's main contract closed at $40.75 per ounce, up $2.20 (5.71%) from last week; London silver was at $40.58 per ounce, up $2.57 (6.76%) from last week. Shanghai silver's main contract closed at 9,824 yuan per kilogram, up 5.02% from last week [6]. - **Basis and Spread**: The spread between Shanghai silver's main contract and London silver was 525.93 yuan per gram, down 13.70% from last week; the basis of Shanghai silver's main contract was - 24 yuan per kilogram [6]. - **Position and Inventory**: Comex silver positions were 158,630 lots, up 0.10% from last week; Shanghai silver's main contract positions were 4,961,835 lots, up 8.88% from last week. The total visible inventory was 42,794 tons, up 0.90% from last week [6]. - **Net Positions of Futures Companies**: Among the top 10 net - long positions of Shanghai silver futures companies on the Shanghai Futures Exchange, the top 5 totaled 115,138 lots, a decrease of 681 lots; the top 10 totaled 159,406 lots, an increase of 610 lots. Among the top 10 net - short positions, the top 5 totaled 49,270 lots, a decrease of 354 lots; the top 10 totaled 82,445 lots, an increase of 758 lots [7]. Fundamental Key Data - **Fed Data**: The upper limit of the federal funds target rate is 4.50%, down 0.25 percentage points from last time; the Fed's total assets are $6,654.234 billion, down $1.5239 billion from last time [8]. - **Economic Data**: The 10 - year US Treasury real yield is 2.54%, unchanged; the US dollar index is 97.70, down 0.52% from last week; the inflation data shows that the year - on - year CPI is 2.70%, unchanged; the unemployment rate is 4.20%, up 0.10 percentage points from last time [8][11]. - **Central Bank Gold Reserves**: China's central bank gold reserves are 2,300.41 tons, up 0.08% from last time; the US's are 8,133.46 tons, unchanged; the world's are 36,268.07 tons, unchanged [11][12]. - **Fed Rate Expectations**: According to the CME FedWatch tool, the probability of a rate cut in September 2025 is over 89.8%, and the probability distribution of rate cuts in subsequent meetings is also provided [13].