Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints of the Report - Today, precious metals rose significantly, with gold underperforming silver. SHFE gold closed up 1.56%, and SHFE silver closed up 5.48%. The short - term core logic includes that the negative impact of the China - US talks has been realized, but geopolitical risks still exist; the US employment is weakening and inflation is moderate, so the expectation of the Fed's rate cut still remains. It is expected that precious metals will be volatile and bullish in the short term, oscillate at a high level in the medium term, and rise step - by - step in the long term [1]. - The price trend of gold is the anchor for the price of silver. In terms of capital, the net long position of CFTC silver and the iShare silver ETF increased slightly. In terms of inventory, the recent visible inventory of silver decreased slightly [5]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Gold - **Strategy**: Conservative investors should wait and see, while aggressive investors can buy low and sell high. It is recommended to manage positions well and set strict stop - loss and take - profit levels [2]. - **Data Summary**: - **Price**: Comex gold and London gold showed different changes. Domestic SHFE gold and gold T + D both increased. For example, the SHFE gold main contract closed at 935.98 yuan/gram, up 1.60% from the previous day [2]. - **Basis, Spread, and Ratio**: The basis and spread data such as SHFE gold - London gold and the gold - silver ratio changed to varying degrees. For instance, the SHFE gold - London gold basis increased by 194% from the previous day [2]. - **Position and Inventory**: Comex gold, SHFE gold, and gold T + D positions and inventories changed. For example, the SHFE gold main contract position decreased by 9.72% compared with the previous week [2]. - **CFTC and ETF**: The net position of CFTC managed funds and the position of the SPDR gold ETF decreased slightly [2]. - **Top 10 Net Position Ranking of SHFE Futures Companies for Gold**: The net positions of the top 10 futures companies in the long and short positions changed. For example, the long - position net position of the top 10 companies increased by 27.55% [3]. Silver - **Strategy**: Similar to gold, conservative investors should wait and see, and aggressive investors can buy low and sell high. Good position management and strict stop - loss and take - profit are recommended [6]. - **Data Summary**: - **Price**: Comex silver and London silver prices changed slightly, while domestic SHFE silver and silver T + D prices increased significantly. For example, the SHFE silver main contract closed at 12,588 yuan/kg, up 4.27% from the previous day [6]. - **Basis and Spread**: The basis and spread data such as SHFE silver - London silver and the SHFE silver main contract basis changed greatly [6]. - **Position and Inventory**: Positions and inventories of Comex silver, SHFE silver, and silver T + D changed. For example, the SHFE silver main contract position increased by 30.16% compared with the previous week [6]. - **CFTC and ETF**: The net position of CFTC managed funds increased, while the position of the iShare silver ETF decreased slightly [6]. - **Top 10 Net Position Ranking of SHFE Futures Companies for Silver**: The net positions of the top 10 futures companies in the long and short positions changed. For example, the long - position net position of the top 10 companies increased by 7.67% [7]. Fundamental Key Data - **Fed - related Data**: The federal funds target rate upper limit, discount rate, and reserve balance interest rate decreased by 0.25%. The Fed's total assets decreased by 0.00%, and M2 increased by 0.01% year - on - year [8]. - **Bond and Interest Rate Data**: The 10 - year US Treasury real yield increased by 1.27%, the US dollar index decreased by 0.72%, and the US bond spread (3 - month to 10 - year) increased by 27.59% [8]. - **Other Key Indicators**: Various indicators such as the US - EU interest rate spread, US - China interest rate spread, CPI, and economic growth data showed different changes [10]. - **Reserve and Ratio Data**: Central bank gold reserves in China, the US, and the world, IMF foreign exchange reserve ratios, and the ratio of gold to foreign exchange reserves changed to varying degrees [12]. - **Risk - related Indexes**: The geopolitical risk index remained unchanged, the VIX index decreased by 2.15%, the CRB commodity index decreased by 1.43%, and the offshore RMB exchange rate decreased by 0.08% [12].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - In 2026, the macro - economy will consolidate its bottom. It will be a year of weak recovery, featuring export support, stable investment, and weak consumption. Policy will remain positive, with fiscal policy staying active and a low - interest - rate environment continuing. In terms of asset allocation, stocks are preferred over commodities, and commodities over bonds [83]. - The Chinese economy is entering a new cycle from 2026, led by artificial intelligence, with new technologies evolving and being transformed into product advantages through China's industrial chain [84]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Macro - economic Fundamentals - **Industrial Production**: Except for automobiles, the growth rate of major industrial products remains low. The increase in automobile production this year supports the growth of industrial added value. Next year, the growth rate of domestic automobile sales may decline, but the overall automobile industry will be supported by exports, and the growth rate of automobile industrial added value is likely to fall but not decline [6]. - **Fixed - asset Investment**: The decline in fixed - asset investment growth has accelerated, and it turned negative from January to September. In 2026, more powerful policies will be introduced to boost investment, and many projects postponed this year will start construction [9]. - **Consumption**: The growth rate of total retail sales of consumer goods has declined, and consumer confidence is hovering at a low level. The reasons include weak income and income expectations, high household leverage, imperfect social security, and a low proportion of household disposable income in GDP [14]. - **Inflation**: The inflation situation will remain weak for a long time. Downstream commodity consumption is poor, while service consumption such as tourism performs better. PPI faces downward pressure on production material prices, and the overall manufacturing scale keeps industrial product prices under long - term pressure [20]. - **Employment**: Unemployment has seasonally increased with the entry of college graduates into the labor market. The cumulative year - on - year growth of newly - added urban employment has flattened, and creating new jobs is becoming more difficult [26]. - **Manufacturing PMI**: Manufacturing PMI has been continuously weak. In the PMI sub - items, the sub - item of the purchase price of major raw materials is above the boom - bust line, and the sub - item of purchase volume fluctuates with the production sub - item, with a larger fluctuation range. Other sub - items are below the boom - bust line [30]. - **Inventory**: Production is significantly stronger than consumption, finished - product inventory is rising, and downstream demand is weaker [34]. - **Construction and Service Industry PMI**: The PMI of the construction industry and its important sub - items are at a low level in recent years, indicating the industry's downturn [38]. - **Foreign Trade**: The growth rate of imports and exports is better than expected. Exports are resilient, and China's share in global exports is increasing. New "new three items" (robots, artificial intelligence, and innovative drugs) are becoming new drivers of industrial upgrading and foreign trade growth [41][44]. - **Chip Industry**: The effect of chip import substitution has emerged in recent years. The growth rate of chip exports is much higher than that of imports, and a complete Chinese chip industry chain independent of the US is rising. It is expected to become a net exporter in 5 - 10 years [46]. 3.2 Macro - economic Highlights - **Automobile Industry**: Automobile production, sales, and exports will reach new highs this year. Although the growth rate of domestic sales may face pressure due to the withdrawal of subsidies, it may be maintained with the launch of new technologies and models. This year's automobile exports are expected to reach 750 - 800 million vehicles, with a year - on - year growth of about 18%, and the growth rate of overseas exports is expected to remain at a good level next year [51]. - **Industrial Enterprise Profits**: The profit growth rate of industrial enterprises above a designated size has rebounded. From January to August, the cumulative year - on - year growth rate of total profits of industrial enterprises above a designated size turned positive, and the year - on - year growth rate in August was 20%. With the implementation of "anti - involution" policies and interest - rate cuts, enterprise profits are expected to improve [54]. - **Stock Market and Economy**: When the M1 - M2 spread turns positive, PPI may also turn positive, indicating a possible bull market in both stocks and commodities. "Anti - involution" may end the decline of PPI. The growth rate of M1 is basically synchronous with the rise of the stock market [57]. - **Real Estate**: The data reflecting the scale of ongoing real estate projects has returned to the level of 2005, and housing prices are still falling month - on - month. The real estate market is in the process of bottom - building. The new housing start - up area may gradually stabilize, and there is a possibility of a retaliatory rise in housing prices in the future [60]. - **Stock Market and Asset Allocation**: There is still room for "deposit migration". The ratio of the total market value of the stock market to household deposits is low, and the trend of households allocating more assets to the stock market has just begun. A bull market can stimulate economic growth, assist economic transformation, improve the corporate financing environment, relieve debt pressure, and enhance international competitiveness [63][64]. - **Technological Progress and Stock Market**: Technologies such as artificial intelligence and robots are likely to be first applied in China. The chip industry is the last major short - board before China becomes a technological superpower. Technological innovation and manufacturing are the core of the "14th Five - Year Plan", and new technologies will promote productivity and expand industrial chain advantages [65]. 3.3 Policy Outlook for 2026 - **Fiscal Policy**: The government's leverage ratio is relatively low and there is room for further leverage. Loose fiscal policy is expected to last for a long time. Consumption subsidies are likely to continue in some form for 2 - 3 years, and other measures such as increasing the deficit scale and transfer payment intensity will also be taken [69]. - **Monetary Policy**: The 7 - day reverse repurchase rate has remained low for a long time, and the money supply will remain loose with room for further decline in interest rates. The Fed's interest - rate cuts provide space for China's central bank to cut interest rates, and domestic commercial banks have already lowered deposit rates [71][82]. - **Exchange Rate Policy**: The US dollar has opened up a downward space, and bank settlement and sales of foreign exchange have turned into a surplus. Overseas hot money is flowing into China, causing the RMB to face more appreciation pressure than depreciation pressure. The RMB's share in international trade is increasing [77][79]. 3.4 Main Conclusions and Suggestions - **Economic Outlook**: In 2026, the macro - economy will be in a weak recovery. Real estate investment will gradually stabilize, infrastructure investment growth will pick up, and exports will maintain a high growth rate. Policy will remain positive, and consumption will be a lagging variable [83]. - **Economic Cycle**: The Chinese economy is entering a new cycle, with artificial intelligence leading the way, and new technologies being transformed into product advantages [84]. - **Risk Analysis**: In 2026, there may be new Sino - US trade frictions, the risk of the bursting of the US artificial intelligence bubble and its spill - over effects, and the risk of a significant correction in the Chinese stock market due to high valuations [85].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided in the content. 2. Core Views of the Report - In the steel market, due to the decline in steel mill profits and the end of the consumption peak season, steel mills are expected to reduce production, which may trigger a negative feedback cycle. Coal and coke prices are showing signs of weakness, and iron ore prices have fallen from their highs. Both rebar and hot-rolled coil futures prices have broken below the support of the 10-day moving average, and attention should be paid to whether they can stabilize in the future [2]. - For iron ore, the commissioning of the Simandou Iron Mine is expected to impact overall supply. Steel mills will continue to cut production, suppressing raw material prices. The global iron ore shipment volume has declined from its high, and port inventories have increased during the consumption peak season, putting pressure on futures prices. The futures price of the 01 contract has broken below the support of the middle - band of the Bollinger Bands and the 10 - day moving average, and attention should be paid to the support of the lower - band of the Bollinger Bands [4]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Rebar and Hot - Rolled Coil - **Supply and Demand**: Last week, rebar's apparent demand decreased, production declined, and inventory continued to fall. Hot - rolled coil inventory has far exceeded the same - period level after a significant increase, and the total inventory continued to rise this week [2]. - **Cost**: Coking coal and coke spot prices are running strongly, providing some support for costs. However, due to the significant decline in steel mill profits, coal and coke prices are showing signs of weakness [2]. - **Technical Analysis**: Rebar and hot - rolled coil futures prices have broken below the support of the 10 - day moving average on the daily K - line chart, and currently, there is support from the lower - band of the Bollinger Bands [2]. - **Operation Suggestion**: Maintain a wait - and - see attitude, do not chase up or sell down. Wait patiently for the price to stabilize and then go long on dips for medium - term trading. Do not short when the price is at a low level [2]. 3.2 Iron Ore - **Supply and Demand**: The Simandou Iron Mine has been commissioned, affecting overall supply. Steel mills' iron - making output has declined, and they will continue to cut production, suppressing raw material prices. Global shipments have declined from their high, and port inventories have increased during the consumption peak season, suppressing futures prices [4]. - **Technical Analysis**: The 01 contract futures price has broken below the support of the middle - band of the Bollinger Bands and the 10 - day moving average, and currently, there is resistance from the dense trading area above. Attention should be paid to the support of the lower - band of the Bollinger Bands [4]. - **Operation Suggestion**: Maintain a wait - and - see attitude, and wait patiently for the price to stabilize and then go long on dips [4]. 3.3 Industry News - As of the week ending November 12, national building materials production was 4362600 tons, a decrease of 168900 tons from the previous week; total inventory was 9545400 tons, a decrease of 196700 tons from the previous week. National hot - rolled coil production was 4114900 tons, an increase of 14600 tons from the previous week; total inventory was 4602300 tons, a decrease of 43900 tons from the previous week [6]. - On November 12, the auction prices of coking coal in the Linfen market showed mixed trends. Among the 7 reported transaction results, with a total listing of 186000 tons and a non - sale of 27000 tons, the non - sale rate was 14.5%. Two suppliers' prices increased, two decreased, and the rest remained the same [6]. - The Handan Ecological Environment Bureau announced that the Handan Heavy Pollution Weather Emergency Command decided to launch a Level II emergency response for heavy pollution weather at 18:00 on November 12, 2025, and it is expected to be lifted around November 16 [7].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The short - term trend of precious metals is expected to be oscillating strongly, the medium - term trend is high - level oscillation, and the long - term trend is step - by - step upward. The core logic includes short - term hedging factors (Sino - US talks' negative impact is realized, geopolitical risks remain; US employment weakens and inflation is moderate, so the Fed's interest - rate cut expectation remains), hedging attributes (results of Sino - US economic and trade consultations are announced, and geopolitical risks in regions like Russia - Ukraine and the Middle East remain), monetary attributes (the expectation that the US government may end the shutdown and economic data recovery may create conditions for the Fed to cut interest rates next month boosts the market, with the US dollar index and US Treasury yields under pressure to fall), and commodity attributes (the CRB commodity index oscillates weakly, and the appreciation of the RMB is negative for domestic prices) [1]. - The gold price trend is the anchor for the silver price. In terms of capital, the net long position of CFTC silver and the iShare silver ETF have slightly increased positions. In terms of inventory, the recent explicit inventory of silver has slightly decreased [6]. 3. Summaries According to Relevant Catalogs Gold - **Data Summary**: International prices of Comex gold and London gold show different changes compared to the previous day and week. Domestic prices of Shanghai gold futures and gold T + D have increased. There are also various changes in basis, spreads, ratios, positions, inventories, and other data. For example, the Comex gold主力 contract's closing price is $4007.80 per ounce, up $23.00 (0.58%) from the previous day and down $5.60 (-0.14%) from the previous week [2]. - **Strategy**: Conservative investors should wait and see, while aggressive investors can buy low and sell high. It is recommended to manage positions well and set strict stop - loss and take - profit levels [3]. Silver - **Data Summary**: International prices of Comex silver and London silver have different changes. Domestic prices of Shanghai silver futures and silver T + D have increased. There are also changes in basis, spreads, positions, inventories, etc. For example, the Comex silver主力 contract's closing price is $48.23 per ounce, up $0.38 (0.79%) from the previous day and down $0.02 (-0.05%) from the previous week [7]. - **Strategy**: Conservative investors should wait and see, while aggressive investors can buy low and sell high. It is recommended to manage positions well and set strict stop - loss and take - profit levels [7]. Fundamental Key Data - **Fed - related Data**: The federal funds target rate ceiling, discount rate, and reserve balance interest rate have all decreased by 0.25%. The Fed's total assets are $66236.43 billion, down $135.35 billion (-0.00%) from the previous period. M2's year - on - year growth rate is 4.49%, up 0.01% [9]. - **Other Economic Data**: The ten - year US Treasury real yield, US dollar index, US Treasury yield spreads, inflation data, economic growth data, labor market data, real estate market data, consumption data, industrial data, trade data, and economic survey data all show different trends and changes [9][11]. - **Other Key Indicators**: There are also data on central bank gold reserves, IMF foreign exchange reserve ratios, geopolitical risk index, VIX index, CRB commodity index, and offshore RMB exchange rate [11][13].

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the report Core Viewpoints - For the thread and hot-rolled coil market, last week's data showed a decline in the apparent demand and production of thread, and a continued decline in inventory. The inventory of hot-rolled coils has far exceeded the same period after a significant increase and continued to rise this week. Coke and coking coal prices are strong, supporting costs. However, due to the significant decline in steel mill profits and the approaching end of the consumption peak, steel mills are expected to reduce production, which may trigger a negative feedback loop. The prices of coking coal and iron ore are showing signs of weakness. Technically, the futures prices of thread and hot-rolled coils have fallen below the 10-day moving average, and now they are supported by the lower Bollinger Band. Traders should wait patiently for stabilization and then go long at low prices for medium-term trading [2]. - In the iron ore market, the iron ore production of sample steel mills continued to decline week-on-week and is expected to continue to decline this week. Due to the decline in steel mill profits and the end of the consumption peak season, steel mills will continue to reduce production, suppressing raw material prices. On the supply side, global shipments have declined from their highs, and the arrival volume is expected to decline after some time. The increase in port inventory during the consumption peak season suppresses the futures price, and the slow destocking of steel inventory also dampens market sentiment. With the realization of macro-positive factors, combined with losses and the seasonal decline in terminal demand, the futures price faces certain correction pressure [4]. Summary by Directory I. Thread and Hot-Rolled Coils - **Supply and Demand**: Last week, the apparent demand for thread decreased, production declined, and inventory continued to fall. The inventory of hot-rolled coils has far exceeded the same period and continued to rise this week. Coke and coking coal prices are strong, supporting costs. However, due to the significant decline in steel mill profits and the approaching end of the consumption peak, steel mills are expected to reduce production, which may trigger a negative feedback loop. The prices of coking coal and iron ore are showing signs of weakness [2]. - **Technical Analysis**: On the daily K-line chart, the futures prices of thread and hot-rolled coils have fallen below the 10-day moving average, and now they are supported by the lower Bollinger Band. Traders should pay attention to whether they can stabilize in the future [2]. - **Operation Suggestion**: Maintain a wait-and-see attitude, do not chase after rising or falling prices. Wait patiently for stabilization and then go long at low prices for medium-term trading. Do not short when the price is low [2]. - **Related Data**: The closing price of the thread steel main contract is 3025 yuan/ton, down 0.62% from the previous day and last week; the closing price of the hot-rolled coil main contract is 3242 yuan/ton, down 0.31% from the previous day and 0.70% from last week. The 247 steel mill blast furnace operating rate is 81.75%, down 2.96 percentage points; the average daily molten iron output is 234.22 million tons, down 0.91%. The national building materials steel mill thread production is 208.54 million tons, down 1.91%; the hot-rolled coil production is 318.16 million tons, down 1.67%. The five major varieties of social inventory are 1075 million tons, down 0.19%; the thread social inventory is 425.7 million tons, down 1.19%; the hot-rolled coil social inventory is 333.02 million tons, up 1.24% [2]. II. Iron Ore - **Supply and Demand**: The iron ore production of sample steel mills continued to decline week-on-week and is expected to continue to decline this week. Due to the decline in steel mill profits and the end of the consumption peak season, steel mills will continue to reduce production, suppressing raw material prices. On the supply side, global shipments have declined from their highs, and the arrival volume is expected to decline after some time. The increase in port inventory during the consumption peak season suppresses the futures price, and the slow destocking of steel inventory also dampens market sentiment [4]. - **Technical Analysis**: The price of the 01 contract has fallen below the middle Bollinger Band and the 10-day moving average, and now traders should mainly pay attention to the support of the lower Bollinger Band. There is resistance above formed by a dense trading area [4]. - **Operation Suggestion**: Maintain a wait-and-see attitude and wait patiently for the price to stabilize before going long at low prices [4]. - **Related Data**: The settlement price of the DCE iron ore main contract is 763 yuan/dry ton, down 0.26% from the previous day and 1.61% from last week; the settlement price of the SGX iron ore continuous contract is 101.52 US dollars/dry ton, down 0.64% from the previous day and 4.93% from last week. The Australian iron ore shipment volume is 1564.5 million tons, down 4.59%; the Brazilian iron ore shipment volume is 606.9 million tons, down 23.09%. The port inventory is 14898.83 million tons, up 2.45% [4]. III. Industry News - As of November 11, the operating rate of 50 major building material electric furnace steel mills nationwide was 36.4%, a 0.68% increase from the previous period; the capacity utilization rate was 38.31%, a 0.3% increase from the previous period; the average daily building material output was 8.53 million tons, a 0.07 million tons increase from the previous period [6]. - From November 3 to November 9, 2025, the total iron ore inventory of seven major ports in Australia and Brazil was 1262.6 million tons, a 45.8 million tons increase from the previous period, showing a slight inventory accumulation trend. The current inventory level is slightly lower than the median since the second half of the year [6]. - The total inventory of imported iron ore ports in 47 ports in China is 15819.49 million tons, a 380.41 million tons increase from last Monday; the total inventory of 45 ports is 15128.19 million tons, a 414.11 million tons increase from the previous period [7]. - During the winter shutdown and production reduction period, Xinjiang is expected to reduce the production of construction steel by about 200 million tons, accounting for about 25% of the estimated total production of construction steel in Xinjiang in 2025. Currently, some steel mills in Xinjiang are still actively promoting the spontaneous production reduction and limitation of other steel mills in winter. Some enterprises with the conditions to export to other regions and Central Asia are increasing their export efforts to reduce the inventory pressure of construction steel in Xinjiang in early 2026 [7].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided in the given documents. 2. Core Views of the Report - Gold is expected to be volatile and strong in the short - term, oscillate at a high level in the medium - term, and rise step - by - step in the long - term. The core logics include short - term hedging due to geopolitical risks after the Sino - US talks, the weakening US employment and moderate inflation leading to potential Fed rate cuts, the impact of the US government shutdown and consumer confidence on the currency attribute, and the influence of the CRB commodity index and RMB appreciation on the commodity attribute [1]. - The price trend of gold is the anchor for the price of silver. In terms of the capital side, CFTC silver net long positions and iShare silver ETF have slightly increased positions, and the visible inventory of silver has slightly decreased recently [5]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Gold - **Strategy**: Conservative investors should wait and see, while aggressive investors can buy low and sell high. It is recommended to manage positions well and set strict stop - loss and take - profit levels [2]. - **Data Summary**: - **Prices**: Comex gold closed at $4007.80 per ounce, up 0.58% from the previous day and down 0.14% from last week; London gold closed at $3994.10 per ounce, up 0.19% from the previous day and down 0.43% from last week; Shanghai gold futures closed at 935.98 yuan per gram, up 1.60% from the previous day and 1.45% from last week; Gold T + D closed at 933.02 yuan per gram, up 1.68% from the previous day and 1.39% from last week [2]. - **Positions and Inventories**: Comex gold positions were 528,789 lots, unchanged from last week; Shanghai gold futures positions decreased by 9.72% from last week; Gold T + D positions decreased by 2.23% from last week. LBMA gold inventory was 8,598 tons, unchanged; Comex gold inventory decreased by 1.08% from last week; Shanghai gold futures inventory increased by 1.32% from last week [2]. Silver - **Strategy**: Similar to gold, conservative investors should wait and see, and aggressive investors can buy low and sell high with good position management and strict stop - loss and take - profit [6]. - **Data Summary**: - **Prices**: Comex silver closed at $48.23 per ounce, up 0.79% from the previous day and down 0.05% from last week; London silver closed at $48.70 per ounce, up 0.02% from the previous day and down 0.54% from last week; Shanghai silver futures closed at 11,719 yuan per kilogram, up 2.05% from the previous day and 2.30% from last week; Silver T + D closed at 11,726 yuan per kilogram, up 2.14% from the previous day and 2.48% from last week [6]. - **Positions and Inventories**: Comex silver positions were 165,805 lots, unchanged from last week; Shanghai silver futures positions decreased by 2.91% from last week; Silver T + D positions decreased by 2.65% from last week. LBMA silver inventory increased by 6.53% from last week; Comex silver inventory decreased by 0.48% from last week; Shanghai silver futures inventory decreased by 7.42% from last week [6]. Fundamental Key Data - **Federal Reserve and Monetary Indicators**: The upper limit of the federal funds target rate is 4.00%, down 0.25 from the previous value; the discount rate is 4.00%, down 0.25; the reserve balance interest rate (IORB) is 3.90%, down 0.25; the Fed's total assets are $6623.643 billion, down 0.00% from last week; M2 year - on - year growth is 4.49%, up 0.01 [8]. - **US Economic Indicators**: The 10 - year US Treasury real yield is 2.40%, down 1.23% from the previous day and up 1.69% from last week; the US dollar index is 99.55, down 0.16% from the previous day and 0.18% from last week; the US Treasury yield spread (3 - month to 10 - year) is 0.37, up 2.78% from the previous day and 16.13% from last week [8]. - **Inflation Indicators**: CPI year - on - year and month - on - month are 3.00% and 0.30% respectively, with no change; core CPI year - on - year and month - on - month are 3.00% and 0.30% respectively, with no change; PCE price index year - on - year is 2.74%, up 0.14; core PCE price index year - on - year is 2.91%, up 0.05 [10]. - **Economic Growth and Other Indicators**: GDP annualized year - on - year is 2.00%, down 0.30; GDP annualized quarter - on - quarter is 3.80%, up 4.40; the unemployment rate is 4.30%, up 0.10; non - farm payrolls monthly change is 2.20 million, down 0.57 million [10].

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided Group 2: Core Viewpoints of the Report - For the steel sector, the apparent demand for rebar decreased week - on - week, rebar production declined, and inventory continued to fall. Hot - rolled coil inventory has far exceeded the same - period level after a significant increase and continued to rise this week. Coke and coking coal prices showed signs of weakness, and iron ore prices hit a recent low. Future steel mills are expected to cut production, which may trigger a negative feedback cycle. [2] - For the iron ore sector, the sample steel mills' hot - metal production continued to decline week - on - week, and it is expected to continue to fall this week. With the decline in steel mills' profits and the end of the consumption peak season, steel mills will continue to cut production, suppressing raw material prices. The global iron ore shipment has declined from its high, and the port inventory increase during the consumption peak season and slow inventory depletion of steel products are suppressing the market sentiment. The futures price faces a correction pressure. [4] Group 3: Summary of Each Section 1. Rebar and Hot - Rolled Coil - **Supply and demand**: Rebar's apparent demand, production, and inventory all decreased. Hot - rolled coil inventory increased. Coke and coking coal supported costs, but steel mills' profit decline may lead to production cuts. [2] - **Technical analysis**: The futures prices of rebar and hot - rolled coil have fallen below the 10 - day moving average and are currently supported by the lower Bollinger Band. [2] - **Operation suggestion**: Maintain a wait - and - see attitude, do not chase up or sell down, and wait patiently to go long at low prices after stabilization for mid - term trading. Do not short when the price is low. [2] - **Related data**: Include prices, basis, spreads, production, inventory, and trading volume data. For example, the rebar main contract closing price was 3034 yuan/ton, down 0.10% from the previous day and 2.32% from last week. [2] 2. Iron Ore - **Demand**: The sample steel mills' hot - metal production decreased, and steel mills will continue to cut production, suppressing iron ore prices. [4] - **Supply**: Global iron ore shipment declined from its high, and it is expected that the arrival volume will decrease after some time. [4] - **Technical analysis**: The 01 - contract futures price has fallen below the middle Bollinger Band and the 10 - day moving average, hitting a three - month low, and is currently mainly supported by the lower Bollinger Band. [4] - **Operation suggestion**: Maintain a wait - and - see attitude and wait patiently to go long at low prices after price stabilization. [5] - **Related data**: Include prices, basis, spreads, shipment, arrival volume, inventory, and other data. For example, the DCE iron ore main contract settlement price was 760.5 yuan/dry ton, down 4.94% from last week. [5] 3. Industry News - Mysteel statistics show that the total inventory of imported iron ore at 45 ports was 14898.83 tons, a week - on - week increase of 356.35 tons. The average daily port clearance volume was 335.55 tons, an increase of 4.33 tons. [7] - The blast furnace operating rate of 247 steel mills was 83.13%, a week - on - week increase of 1.38 percentage points. The average daily hot - metal output was 234.22 tons, a week - on - week decrease of 2.14 tons. [7] - The total urban inventory of steel was 933.32 tons, a week - on - week decrease of 3.09 tons. [8]

Group 1: Report Investment Ratings - Not provided in the content Group 2: Core Views - The report expects precious metals to be volatile and strong in the short - term, oscillate at high levels in the medium - term, and rise in a stepped manner in the long - term. Gold price trends are the anchor for silver prices. In terms of silver, there are small increases in CFTC silver net - long positions and iShare silver ETF, and a slight decrease in recent visible silver inventories [1][6] Group 3: Summary by Directory Gold - **Core Logic**: In the short - term for hedging, the negative impact of the China - US talks has materialized, while risks such as a US government shutdown and geopolitical changes still exist. The US employment is weakening and inflation is moderate, so the expectation of the Fed's interest rate cut remains. In terms of the hedging attribute, the results and consensus of the China - US economic and trade consultations in Kuala Lumpur were announced, the US government shutdown reached 35 days, tying the longest record in history, and the US Supreme Court questioned the legitimacy of Trump's tariffs. Regarding the monetary attribute, private reports show a decrease in US employment positions in October and a surge in layoffs to a 22 - year high for the same period. The overall labor demand is still slowing down, and salary growth remains stagnant. The Fed's interest rate cut path has changed, and internal differences are intensifying. The market expects a 70% probability of a 25 - basis - point interest rate cut by the Fed in December. The US dollar index and US Treasury yields are under pressure and falling. For the commodity attribute, the CRB commodity index is oscillating weakly, and the appreciation of the RMB is negative for domestic prices [1] - **Data**: Comex gold主力合约收盘价 is $3984.80 per ounce, down $5.60 (-0.14%) from the previous day and down $53.50 (-1.32%) from the previous week. London gold is $3986.50 per ounce, up $18.30 (0.46%) from the previous day and down $7.65 (-0.19%) from the previous week. The closing price of SHFE gold主力 is 921.26 yuan per gram, up 3.46 yuan (0.38%) from the previous day and down 0.66 yuan (-0.07%) from the previous week. The closing price of gold T + D is 917.64 yuan per gram, up 0.13 yuan (0.01%) from the previous day and down 3.38 yuan (-0.37%) from the previous week. There are also data on positions, inventories, etc. [2] - **Strategy**: Conservative investors should wait and see, while aggressive investors can buy low and sell high. It is recommended to manage positions well and set strict stop - loss and take - profit levels [3] Silver - **Core Logic**: Gold price trends are the anchor for silver prices. There are small increases in CFTC silver net - long positions and iShare silver ETF, and a slight decrease in recent visible silver inventories [6] - **Data**: Comex silver主力合约收盘价 is $47.85 per ounce, down $0.02 (-0.03%) from the previous day and down $0.88 (-1.82%) from the previous week. London silver is $48.69 per ounce, up $1.08 (2.26%) from the previous day and up $0.51 (1.05%) from the previous week. The closing price of SHFE silver主力 is 11484 yuan per kilogram, up 57 yuan (0.50%) from the previous day and up 43 yuan (0.38%) from the previous week. The closing price of silver T + D is 11480 yuan per kilogram, up 59 yuan (0.52%) from the previous day and up 70 yuan (0.61%) from the previous week. There are also data on positions, inventories, etc. [7] - **Strategy**: Conservative investors should wait and see, while aggressive investors can buy low and sell high. It is recommended to manage positions well and set strict stop - loss and take - profit levels [7] Fundamental Key Data - **Fed - related**: The upper limit of the federal funds target rate is 4%, the discount rate is 4%, the reserve balance interest rate (IORB) is 3.9%, and the Fed's total assets are $66236.43 billion, down $167.70 billion (-0.00%) from the previous period. M2 year - on - year growth is 4.49%, up 0.01 percentage points from the previous period [9] - **Other Key Indicators**: The 10 - year US Treasury real yield is 2.39, up 0.02 (0.84%) from the previous day and up 0.04 (1.70%) from the previous week. The US dollar index is 99.71, down 0.45 (-0.45%) from the previous day and up 0.19 (0.19%) from the previous week. There are also data on US Treasury spreads, inflation, economic growth, labor market, real estate market, consumption, industry, trade, economic surveys, central bank gold reserves, and IMF foreign exchange reserve ratios [9][11][13]

一、螺纹、热卷 更新时间：2025年11月07日08时16分 报告导读： 供需方面，本周的数据显示螺纹表观需求环比回落 ，螺纹产量下降，库存继续回落。热卷的库存在大幅回升后已经远高于同期水平 ，本周总库存继 续上升。焦煤和焦炭现货偏强运行，对成本构成一定支撑。不过，由于钢厂毛利大幅回落，且消费高峰期即将过去，未来钢厂预计将压减产量从而 可能会引发阶段性的负反馈循环。从技术上看，在日 K 线图上，螺纹和热卷的期价突破了上方 10 日均线的压制后有所回调，目前均已经跌破了下 方 10 日均线的支撑，目前下方有布林带下轨的支撑。 投资咨询系列报告 操作建议： 维持观望，不可追涨杀跌，耐心等待企稳后逢低做多，中线交易。 山金期货黑色板块日报 | 数据类别 | 指标 | 单位 | 最新 | | 较上日 | | 较上周 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | 螺纹钢主力合约收盘价 | 元/吨 | 3037 | 13 | 0.43% | -69 | -2.22% | | 期现货价格 | 热轧卷板主力合约收盘价 | 元/吨 | 3256 | 3 | 0. ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The report predicts that precious metals will be volatile and strong in the short - term, oscillate at high levels in the medium - term, and rise step - by - step in the long - term [1]. - The price trend of gold is the anchor for the price of silver. In terms of funds, the net long position of CFTC silver and iShare silver ETF have slightly increased. In terms of inventory, the recent explicit inventory of silver has slightly decreased [6]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Gold Core Logic - In the short - term, although the negative impact of the China - US talks has been realized, risks such as geopolitical changes and the US government shutdown still exist. The US employment is weakening and inflation is moderate, and the market's expectation of the Fed's interest rate cut is slowing down [1]. - The results and consensus of the China - US economic and trade consultations in Kuala Lumpur have been announced. The US government shutdown has reached 35 days, tying the longest record in history. The US Supreme Court questions the legitimacy of Trump's tariffs, focusing on whether the authorization of the "Emergency State Law" has been abused [1]. - The path of the Fed's interest rate cut has changed, and internal differences are intensifying. Many Fed officials have expressed concerns about the possibility of another interest rate cut in December in different forms. ADP employment data shows that the overall labor demand is still slowing down, and wage growth has been stagnant, adding uncertainty to whether the Fed will continue to cut interest rates in December. The Fed cut interest rates by 25 basis points as expected in October, lowering the federal funds rate to 3.75% - 4.00%, the second interest rate cut this year, and announced the end of the balance - sheet reduction as of December 1. Fed Chairman Powell said that whether to further cut interest rates in December is "far from a foregone conclusion", and the data loss caused by the government shutdown may affect subsequent decisions. Currently, the market expects the probability of the Fed cutting interest rates by 25 basis points in December to remain at around 70%. The US dollar index and US Treasury yields have fallen under pressure [1]. - The CRB commodity index is oscillating weakly, and the appreciation of the RMB is negative for domestic prices [1]. Strategy - For conservative investors, it is recommended to wait and see. For aggressive investors, it is recommended to sell high and buy low. Good position management should be done, and strict stop - loss and take - profit should be set [1][3][7]. Data - International prices: The closing price of the Comex gold main contract is $3990.40 per ounce, up $49.10 (1.25%) from the previous day and up $48.70 (1.24%) from last week. The price of London gold is $3968.20 per ounce, up $17.10 (0.43%) from the previous day and down $38.50 (- 0.96%) from last week [2]. - Domestic prices: The closing price of the Shanghai gold main contract on the Shanghai Futures Exchange is 917.80 yuan per gram, up 5.54 yuan (0.61%) from the previous day and up 5.64 yuan (0.62%) from last week. The closing price of gold T + D on the Shanghai Gold Exchange is 917.51 yuan per gram, up 7.98 yuan (0.88%) from the previous day and up 10.23 yuan (1.13%) from last week [2]. - Other data such as basis, spreads, ratios, positions, inventories, CFTC management fund net positions, and gold ETFs are also provided [2]. Silver Core Logic - The price trend of gold is the anchor for the price of silver. In terms of funds, the net long position of CFTC silver and iShare silver ETF have slightly increased. In terms of inventory, the recent explicit inventory of silver has slightly decreased [6]. Strategy - For conservative investors, it is recommended to wait and see. For aggressive investors, it is recommended to sell high and buy low. Good position management should be done, and strict stop - loss and take - profit should be set [7]. Data - International prices: The closing price of the Comex silver main contract is $47.86 per ounce, up $0.96 (2.06%) from the previous day and up $0.59 (1.24%) from last week. The price of London silver is $47.61 per ounce, down $0.15 (- 0.31%) from the previous day and down $0.56 (- 1.17%) from last week [7]. - Domestic prices: The closing price of the Shanghai silver main contract on the Shanghai Futures Exchange is 11427.00 yuan per kilogram, up 151.00 yuan (1.34%) from the previous day and up 174.00 yuan (1.55%) from last week. The closing price of silver T + D on the Shanghai Gold Exchange is 11421.00 yuan per kilogram, up 181.00 yuan (1.61%) from the previous day and up 224.00 yuan (2.00%) from last week [7]. - Other data such as basis, spreads, positions, inventories, CFTC management fund net positions, and silver ETFs are also provided [7]. Fundamental Key Data - Federal Reserve: The upper limit of the federal funds target rate is 4.00%, the discount rate is 4.00%, the reserve balance interest rate (IORB) is 3.90%, the Fed's total assets are $66371.78 billion, M2 (year - on - year) is 4.49% [9]. - US Treasury bonds and dollar: The real yield of the 10 - year US Treasury bond is 2.43%, the US dollar index is 100.16, and various US Treasury bond spreads and interest rate differentials are also provided [9][10]. - US economy: GDP (annualized year - on - year) is 2.00%, GDP (annualized quarter - on - quarter) is 3.80%, the unemployment rate is 4.30%, and other economic data such as employment, consumption, industry, and real estate are also provided [9][10]. - Central bank gold reserves, IMF foreign exchange reserve ratios, gold/foreign exchange reserve ratios, geopolitical risk index, VIX index, CRB commodity index, and offshore RMB data are also provided [10]. Fed's Latest Interest Rate Expectations - The probability distribution of different interest rate ranges at different meeting dates from December 2025 to October 2027 is provided according to the CME FedWatch tool [12].