投资咨询系列报告 山金期货贵金属策略报告 更新时间：2025年07月01日17时01分 一、黄金 报告导读： 今日贵金属震荡偏强，沪金主力收涨1.47%，沪银主力收涨1.11%。①核心逻辑，短期中东地缘冲突缓和，经济衰退地缘异动风险 仍存；美国经济滞涨风险增加，美联储重新降息逻辑蓄势待发。②避险属性方面，特朗普对美日贸易谈判表示失望，贝森特警告将 提高关税。欧盟贸易执委本周将前往华盛顿与美国谈判，寻求达成公平协议。③货币属性方面，鲍威尔重申降息可以等待，美联储 正在研究关税影响。关税或仅是一次性冲击，但美联储需管理导致持久通胀的风险。美国5月消费者支出意外下降；通胀温和上 行，核心PCE物价指数环比上涨0.2%，同比上涨2.7%。目前市场预期美联储下次降息至9月，预期25年总降息空间涨至75基点左 右。美元指数和美债收益率震荡偏弱；④商品属性方面，CRB商品指数反弹承压，人民币升值利空国内价格。⑤预计贵金属短期震 荡偏强，中期高位震荡，长期阶梯上行。⑥本周有多项美国就业数据，目前市场预期走弱，建议关注数据超预期风险。 策略：稳健者观望，激进者逢低做多。建议做好仓位管理，严格止损止盈。 表1 黄金相关数据： | ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No industry investment rating is provided in the report. 2. Core Views - The real - estate market is still in the process of bottom - building, and the overall economic data in May was slightly below expectations. The steel market is in a state of weak supply and demand, and the price may have fully reflected the negative factors. The futures price of steel products maintains a narrow - range shock, and there may be a second bottom - probing in the short term [2]. - For iron ore, the steel mill's profitability is acceptable, but with the end of the downstream consumption peak and steel mill production restrictions, the molten iron output is expected to decline. The supply is at a relatively high level, and the port inventory decline rate is slowing down, putting pressure on the futures price. The long - term trend of the futures price is downward, and it is weak in the short - term shock [5]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1. Threaded Steel and Hot - Rolled Coils - **Market Environment**: The central bank's suggestion to strengthen monetary policy regulation has strengthened the expectation of reserve requirement ratio and interest rate cuts in the second half of the year, but it has little impact on the market. The real - estate market is still bottom - building, with the total sales of top 100 real - estate enterprises from January to June down 11.8% year - on - year, and the decline has widened compared with last month. The economic data in May was slightly below expectations [2]. - **Supply and Demand**: Last week, the output of threaded steel increased, the factory inventory rebounded, the social inventory continued to decline, and the total inventory decreased. The apparent demand increased slightly month - on - month. With the arrival of the rainy season and high - temperature weather, demand will weaken further, and inventory will rise slightly [2]. - **Operation Suggestion**: Maintain a wait - and - see attitude, treat it with a shock mindset. Short - term long positions can be taken after the callback stabilizes, and do not chase the rise [2]. - **Data**: The closing price of the threaded steel main contract is 2997 yuan/ton, up 0.07% from the previous day and 0.07% from last week; the closing price of the hot - rolled coil main contract is 3123 yuan/ton, up 0.06% from the previous day and 0.35% from last week. Other data such as basis, spread, and various prices are also provided in detail [2]. 3.2. Iron Ore - **Supply and Demand**: The profitability of steel mills is acceptable, and the molten iron output of 247 steel mills last week exceeded 2.423 million tons, but it is expected to decline further with the end of the consumption peak and production restrictions. The global iron ore shipment is at a relatively high level and rising seasonally. The port inventory decline rate is slowing down, and the proportion of trade ore inventory is high, putting pressure on the futures price [5]. - **Operation Suggestion**: Maintain a wait - and - see attitude, short - term long positions can be taken after the callback, and do not chase the rise or kill the fall [5]. - **Data**: The settlement price of the DCE iron ore main contract is 716.5 yuan/dry ton, up 1.92% from last week. Data on overseas shipments, sea freight, inventory, and various prices are also provided [5]. 3.3. Industry News - In June, the PMI of the steel industry was 45.9%, down 0.5 percentage points month - on - month, and it is expected that in July, the demand will be under pressure and the steel price will continue to fluctuate at a low level [7]. - Since July 1, 2025, anti - dumping duties of 20.2% - 103.1% will continue to be imposed on imported stainless steel billets and stainless steel hot - rolled coils from the EU, the UK, South Korea, and Indonesia for 5 years [7]. - From January to May 2025, China's steel exports are still at a high level, and the future trend is uncertain. The steel billet exports have increased too fast year - on - year, and the annualized calculation may exceed 10 million tons [7]. - From June 23 to June 29, 2025, the total arrival volume of iron ore at 47 ports in China was 24.135 million tons, a decrease of 3.594 million tons month - on - month; the total arrival volume at 45 ports was 23.63 million tons, a decrease of 1.997 million tons month - on - month. The global iron ore shipment decreased by 1.491 million tons month - on - month [7]. - A coal mine in Changzhi will be shut down for maintenance from June 28 to July 12, with an estimated impact on the total raw coal output of 375,000 tons [8].

投资咨询系列报告 山金期货黑色板块日报 一、螺纹、热卷 更新时间：2025年06月27日08时22分 报告导读： 本周原油价格大幅走低，对黑色商品目前影响有限。5 月各线房价环比均回落，显示目前的房地产市场仍处于筑底的过程中 ，5 月的经济数据整体 略不及预期。供需方面，我的钢铁公布的数据显示，本周螺纹产量有所上升，厂库回升，社库继续回落，总库存下降，表观需求环比略有回升，数 据显示目前处于供需双弱的状态。从需求的季节性规律看，随着雨季和高温天气的到来，需求将进一步走弱，且库存将会小幅回升。整体来看，目 前市场交易的是弱现实和弱预期，但价格也有可能充分地反映了各方面的利空 。从技术上看，期价仍旧维持窄幅震荡，成交在回落，在价格下跌 时，持仓量放大，显示空头仍更主动，最近几日的下跌，也有可能是二次探底结束，后市大概率延续震荡 操作建议： 维持观望，回调企稳后可做多，不可追涨 | 表1：螺纹、热卷相关数据 | | | | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 数据类别 | 指标 | 单位 | 最新 | | 较上日 | | 较上周 | ...

投资咨询系列报告 山金期货贵金属策略报告 更新时间：2025年06月26日16时43分 投资咨询系列报告 一、黄金 报告导读： 今日贵金属低位反弹，沪金主力收涨0.69%，沪银主力收涨1.70%。①核心逻辑，短期中东地缘异动缓和，经济衰退地缘异动风险 仍存；美国经济滞涨风险增加，美联储降息节奏放缓。②避险属性方面，特朗普宣称以色列与伊朗将"完全彻底地"停火，双方达成 协议。③货币属性方面，鲍威尔重申降息可以等待，美联储正在研究关税影响。关税或仅是一次性冲击，但美联储需管理导致持久 通胀的风险。美国6月消费者信心意外下滑，一年通胀预期下降。目前市场预期美联储下次降息至9月，预期25年总降息空间跌至 50基点左右。美元指数和美债收益率震荡偏弱；④商品属性方面，CRB商品指数反弹承压，人民币升值利空国内价格。⑤预计贵金 属短期震荡偏强，中期高位震荡，长期阶梯上行。 | | | 学名前 | | | | 学学会 | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 名次 | 会员简称 | 净多車 | 增减 | 日比(%) 名次 | 会员简称 | ...

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The black commodity market is currently trading on weak reality and weak expectations, but prices may have fully reflected various negative factors. For both螺纹 and热卷, it is recommended to maintain a wait - and - see stance and consider going long after a full adjustment. For铁矿石, it is also recommended to maintain a wait - and - see stance, go long after a pullback, and avoid chasing up or selling down [2][4]. Summary by Directory 1. 螺纹、热卷 - **Market Environment**: The fragile cease - fire between Israel and Iran led to a significant drop in crude oil prices, but it has limited impact on black commodities. The real - estate market is still in the bottom - building process, and May's economic data was slightly below expectations [2]. - **Supply and Demand**: Last week,螺纹 production increased, factory inventory decreased, social inventory continued to decline, and total inventory decreased. Apparent demand continued to decline on a month - on - month basis, indicating a situation of weak supply and demand. With the arrival of the rainy season and high - temperature weather, demand is expected to weaken further, and inventory may rise slightly [2]. - **Technical Analysis**: Futures prices are still in a narrow - range oscillation, trading volume is declining, and when prices fall, open interest increases, indicating that short - sellers are more active. There may be a second bottom - testing trend in the near future [2]. - **Operation Suggestion**: Maintain a wait - and - see stance and consider going long after a full adjustment [2]. - **Data Details**: - **Prices**: The closing price of the螺纹 steel主力 contract was 2976 yuan/ton, down 0.03% from the previous day and 0.33% from last week; the closing price of the热轧卷板主力 contract was 3098 yuan/ton, down 0.03% from the previous day and 0.13% from last week. Spot prices also showed a downward trend [2]. - **Production**: The national building materials steel mill螺纹 steel production was 212.18 million tons, up 2.22% from last week; the热卷 production was 325.45 million tons, up 0.25% from last week [2]. - **Inventory**: The five - major varieties of social inventory and螺纹 social inventory decreased, with a decline of 1.55% and 1.72% respectively; the热卷 social inventory decreased by 1.95% [2]. 2. 铁矿石 - **Market Environment**: The fragile cease - fire between Israel and Iran led to a significant drop in crude oil prices. Currently, the profitability rate of steel mills is acceptable, but with the end of the downstream consumption peak and steel mill production restrictions, iron - water production is expected to decline further [4]. - **Supply and Demand**: Global shipments are at a relatively high level and are rising seasonally. The decline rate of port inventory is slowing down, and the proportion of trade - mine inventory is relatively high, exerting obvious pressure on futures prices [4]. - **Technical Analysis**: Futures prices are still in a large - range oscillation pattern, with a long - term downward trend and short - term weak oscillation [4]. - **Operation Suggestion**: Maintain a wait - and - see stance, go long after a pullback, and avoid chasing up or selling down [4]. - **Data Details**: - **Prices**: The settlement price of the DCE铁矿石主力 contract was 702.5 yuan/dry ton, down 0.07% from the previous day and up 1.01% from last week [4]. - **Supply**: Australian iron - ore shipments were 1884 million tons, up 4.35% from last week; Brazilian iron - ore shipments were 858.4 million tons, up 27.76% from last week [4]. - **Inventory**: The total port inventory was 13894.16 million tons, down 0.28% from last week; the port trade - mine inventory was 9401.45 million tons, down 1.07% from last week [4]. 3. Industry News - He Lifeng, a member of the Political Bureau of the CPC Central Committee and Vice - Premier of the State Council, pointed out that efforts should be made to continuously consolidate the stability of the real - estate market, accelerate the construction of a new real - estate development model, and better meet the people's new expectations for "good houses" [6]. - According to Mysteel, Jiangsu Yonggang plans to overhaul a 1080³ blast furnace for about 2 months starting in early July, which is expected to affect about 200,000 tons of iron - water production. Due to insufficient iron - water, a corresponding螺纹 steel production line will be shut down during the same period [7]. - An executive of Brazilian mining giant Vale said that the iron - ore production of the Gelado project is expected to reach about 5 million tons in 2026, an increase from 2.5 million tons this year [8].

投资咨询系列报告 山金期货原油日报 更新时间：2025年06月26日08时17分 | | | | | | | | | | 投资咨询系列报告 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | | | 山金期货原油日报 | | | | 更新时间：2025年06月26日08时17分 | | | | 原油 | | | | | | | | | | | 数据类别 | 指标 | 单位 | 6月25日 | | 较上日 | | 较上周 | | | | | | | | 绝对值 | 百分比 | 绝对值 | | | 百分比 | | | Sc | 元/桶 | 508.60 | | -10.00 | -1.93% | -44.10 | -7.98% | | | 原油期货 | WTI | 美元/桶 | 64.94 | | -0.07 | -0.11% | -9.93 | -13.26% | | | | Brent | 美元/桶 | 67.61 | | -0.21 | -0.31% | -8.47 | -11.13% | | | 内外价差 | Sc-WTI ...

投资咨询系列报告 山金期货贵金属策略报告 更新时间：2025年06月25日16时42分 投资咨询系列报告 二、白银 一、黄金 报告导读： 今日贵金属低位反弹，沪金主力收跌0.75%，沪银主力收跌0.44%。①核心逻辑，短期中东地缘异动缓和，经济衰退地缘异动风险 仍存；美国经济滞涨风险增加，美联储预期9月降息。②避险属性方面，特朗普宣称以色列与伊朗将"完全彻底地"停火，双方达成 协议，冲突仍存。③货币属性方面，鲍威尔重申降息可以等待，美联储正在研究关税影响。美联储博斯蒂克称联储目前无需降息， 年底前或降息一次。美国6月消费者信心意外下滑，一年通胀预期下降。目前市场预期美联储下次降息至9月，预期25年总降息空 间跌至50基点左右。美元指数和美债收益率下行遇阻；④商品属性方面，CRB商品指数反弹承压，人民币升值利空国内价格。⑤预 计贵金属短期震荡偏弱，中期高位震荡，长期阶梯上行。 | 策略：稳健者观望，激进者高抛低吸。建议做好仓位管理，严格止损止盈。 | | --- | | 表1 黄金相关数据： | | 数据类别 | 指标 | 单位 | 最新 | 较上日 | | 较上周/前值 | | | --- | --- | - ...

投资咨询系列报告 山金期货原油日报 更新时间：2025年06月25日08时14分 6、美联储巴尔：实际利率受到其他因素的显著影响，但美联储的政策确实发挥了作用。由于关税，通胀率将上升。美国经济基础稳固，失业率低且稳定，通胀仍在持续回落。 关税也可能导致经济放缓，失业率上升。货币政策处于有利位置，美联储将观望经济形势如何发展。由于短期内通胀预期上升、供应链调整以及二次效应，可能会出现一些通 胀持续的现象。 7、美联储卡什卡利表示，尽管近期的通胀数据"相当积极"，但美联储在调整政策前仍需要进一步明确关税将如何影响物价。"过去两三个月，我们得到的通胀数据相当积极，这 表明我所描述的反通胀路径已经走上正轨，"卡什卡利周二说， "但我们显然还没有看到关税的全部影响，所以我们一直在慢慢了解情况，然后再对我们的政策前景做出任何较 大的改变。"虽然一些美联储官员表示他们支持最快于7月降息，但美联储主席鲍威尔周二早些时候在国会对议员们表示，美联储并不急于降息，因为他和他的同事们正在等待 经济对包括关税在内的各种新政策做出反应。 投资咨询系列报告 1、伊朗总统佩泽希齐扬24日在致伊朗人民的公开信中表示，经过伊朗人民英勇抵抗，这场 ...

投资咨询系列报告 山金期货贵金属策略报告 更新时间：2025年06月24日16时47分 一、黄金 报告导读： 今日贵金属金弱银强，沪金主力收跌1.26%，沪银主力收涨0.09%。①核心逻辑，短期中东地缘异动缓和，经济衰退地缘异动风险 仍存；美国经济滞涨风险增加，美联储出现7月降息声音。②避险属性方面，特朗普宣称以色列与伊朗将"完全彻底地"停火，最新 以色列和伊朗已经同意停火。③货币属性方面，美联储鲍曼对7月降息持开放态度，不太担心关税导致持续通胀。美联储沃勒称鉴 于近期通胀数据温和，应考虑在7月降息。目前市场预期美联储下次降息至9月，预期25年总降息空间跌至50基点左右。美元指数 和美债收益率震荡偏弱；④商品属性方面，CRB商品指数反弹承压，人民币偏强压制国内价格。⑤预计贵金属短期金弱银强，中期 高位震荡，长期阶梯上行。 | 策略：稳健者观望，激进者高抛低吸。建议做好仓位管理，严格止损止盈。 | | --- | | 表1 黄金相关数据： | | 数据类别 | 指标 | 单位 | 最新 | 较上日 | | 较上周/前值 | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- ...

投资咨询系列报告 山金期货黑色板块日报 一、螺纹、热卷 更新时间：2025年06月24日08时28分 报告导读： 投资咨询系列报告 消息面上，伊朗袭击美军基地，但没有造成损失，特朗普宣布以伊将实现停火，原油价格大幅走低。目前钢厂盈利率尚可，上周 247 家钢厂铁水产 量超过 242.2 万吨，环比上周 0.6 万吨，铁水明显高于去年同期水平。随着下游消费高峰期结束以及钢厂的限产 ，预计近期铁水产量将进一步回落 。供应端，全球发运处于相对高位且在沿着季节性回升趋势不断上升 。当前港口库存降速趋缓，且贸易矿库存比例偏高，对期价有明显的压力。技 术面上，期价目前仍处于大区间震荡格局，长期趋势仍是下行 操作建议： 维持观望，回调后做多，不可以追涨杀跌 | 表2：铁矿石相关数据 | 数据类别 | 指标 | 单位 | 最新 | 较上日 | 较上周 | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | ...