1. Report's Investment Rating for the Industry - There is no information about the industry investment rating in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - For the螺纹 and 热卷 market, the market is in a state of weak supply and demand during the off - season. Steel mill output is expected to continue to decline slowly, and with the recent rebound in coal and coke prices, cost support for the market has increased. The market is expected to maintain a volatile upward trend [2]. - For the iron ore market, with the arrival of the off - season, iron ore demand is likely to decline seasonally, and the high global shipping volume and rising port inventory put pressure on prices. However, the 05 contract is still in a wide - range volatile trend at a relatively high level [4]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1. 螺纹 and 热卷 - **Supply and Demand** - Last week,螺纹 production increased, 热卷 production decreased, and the production of five major steel varieties decreased. Overall inventory continued to decline. 螺纹 apparent demand rebounded, while the overall apparent demand of the five major varieties decreased. The market is in a state of weak supply and demand [2]. - Due to a significant drop in steel mill profits and the end of the consumption peak, steel mill output is expected to continue to decline slowly [2]. - **Price and Basis** - 螺纹 steel and 热轧卷板 futures and spot prices showed different degrees of change compared to the previous day and week. Basis and spreads also had corresponding fluctuations [2]. - **Production and Inventory** - The blast furnace operating rate and daily hot metal output of 247 steel mills decreased. The proportion of profitable steel mills remained unchanged [2]. - 全国建材钢厂螺纹钢 production increased, while 热卷 production decreased. The production of electric arc furnace steel mills also changed [2]. - The social and steel mill inventories of the five major varieties, 螺纹, and 热卷 all decreased, except for the increase in Tangshan steel billet inventory [2]. - **Apparent Demand and Trading Volume** - The apparent demand of the five major varieties decreased, while the apparent demand of 螺纹 increased and that of 热卷 decreased. The trading volume in the spot market also decreased [2]. - **Operation Suggestion** - Hold long positions and conduct medium - term trading [2]. 3.2. Iron Ore - **Supply and Demand** - Demand: The production and apparent demand of the five major steel varieties decreased last week. With the arrival of the off - season, hot metal production is likely to decline seasonally, putting pressure on raw material prices. The pre - holiday restocking demand will come later this year [4]. - Supply: Global shipping volume is still at a high level, and the continuous increase in port inventory suppresses the futures price [4]. - **Price and Spread** - Iron ore spot and futures prices, basis, and spreads all had different degrees of change compared to the previous day and week [5]. - **Shipping and Inventory** - Australian and Brazilian iron ore shipping volumes decreased. Shipping costs and exchange rates also changed. The arrival and port clearance volumes of iron ore decreased, while port inventory increased [5]. - **Operation Suggestion** - Hold long positions and conduct medium - term trading [4]. 3.3. Industry News - In mid - December 2025, the steel inventory of key steel enterprises increased, and the average daily output of crude steel decreased [7]. - As of the week of December 24, national building material production increased, factory inventory increased, social inventory decreased, and total inventory decreased [7]. - An Indonesian stainless - steel factory raised its export price, showing strong cost support and a bullish attitude in the external market [7]. - The average cost of hot metal and steel billets of Tangshan steel mills decreased, and the average loss of steel mills decreased [8].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - Today, precious metals rose to a high level. The main contract of Shanghai Gold closed up 0.63%, the main contract of Shanghai Silver closed up 8.12%, the main contract of platinum closed up 7%, and the main contract of palladium closed up 6.99% [1]. - In the short - term, in terms of risk - aversion, the risk - aversion sentiment from the trade war has subsided, while the risk of geopolitical fluctuations has increased. The weakening of the US employment and moderate inflation still support the expectation of interest rate cuts [1]. - In terms of the risk - aversion attribute, the risk of geopolitical fluctuations in regions such as the US - Venezuela, Thailand - Cambodia, and Russia - Ukraine has increased [1]. - In terms of the monetary attribute, although the US economic growth in the third quarter exceeded expectations, consumer confidence dropped to the lowest level since April. The US core CPI in November increased by 2.6% year - on - year, the slowest growth rate since early 2021, lower than the market expectation of 3%. The US employment rebounded more than expected in November, and the unemployment rate rose to a four - year high. The Fed cut interest rates in December with significant differences, hinting at a pause in action and only one possible interest rate cut next year. The market currently expects the probability that the Fed will not cut interest rates in January 2026 to remain around 80%, and the next interest rate cut may be in April. The US dollar index and US Treasury yields are oscillating weakly [1]. - In terms of the commodity attribute, silver is supported by tight supply. The demand for platinum - based catalysts in the platinum hydrogen energy industry is expected to be strong. Palladium still has short - term demand resilience but faces long - term structural pressure in the fuel - vehicle market. The CRB commodity index is oscillating weakly, and the appreciation of the RMB is negative for domestic prices [1]. - It is expected that precious metals will oscillate upwards in the short - term, oscillate at a high level in the medium - term, and rise step - by - step in the long - term [1]. 3. Summaries According to Relevant Catalogs Gold - Strategy: Conservative investors should wait and see, while aggressive investors can buy low and sell high. It is recommended to manage positions well and set strict stop - loss and take - profit levels [2]. - Price: International prices (Comex Gold active contract and London Gold) and domestic prices (Shanghai Gold main contract and Gold T + D) all increased. For example, the Comex Gold active contract closed at $4515.00 per ounce, up 0.77% from the previous day and 4.22% from the previous week [2]. - Position and inventory: The positions of Comex Gold and Gold T + D increased, while the position of Shanghai Gold main contract decreased. In terms of inventory, the LBMA inventory remained unchanged, the Comex Gold inventory decreased by 1.08%, and the Shanghai Gold inventory increased slightly [2]. Silver - Strategy: Conservative investors should wait and see, while aggressive investors can buy on dips. It is recommended to manage positions well and set strict stop - loss and take - profit levels [4]. - Price: International prices (Comex Silver active contract and London Silver) and domestic prices (Shanghai Silver main contract and Silver T + D) all increased. For example, the Shanghai Silver main contract closed at 17,609 yuan per kilogram, up 7.10% from the previous day and 13.52% from the previous week [4]. - Position and inventory: The position of Shanghai Silver main contract increased, while the positions of Comex Silver and Silver T + D decreased. The total visible inventory increased slightly [4]. Platinum - Strategy: Conservative investors should wait and see, while aggressive investors can buy on dips. It is recommended to manage positions well and set strict stop - loss and take - profit levels [6]. - Price: International prices (NYMEX Platinum active contract and London Platinum) and domestic prices (Platinum main contract on GQEX and Platinum on SGE) all increased. For example, the NYMEX Platinum active contract closed at $2343.20 per ounce, up 9.04% from the previous day and 25.02% from the previous week [7]. - Position and inventory: The position of NYMEX Platinum active contract decreased, and the inventory increased [7]. Palladium - Strategy: Conservative investors should wait and see, while aggressive investors can buy on dips. It is recommended to manage positions well and set strict stop - loss and take - profit levels [10]. - Price: International prices (NYMEX Palladium active contract and London Palladium) and domestic prices (Palladium main contract on GQEX) all increased. For example, the NYMEX Palladium active contract closed at $1964.00 per ounce, up 5.56% from the previous day and 18.14% from the previous week [10]. - Position and inventory: The position of NYMEX Palladium active contract increased, and the inventory remained basically unchanged [10]. Key Data of Precious Metals Fundamentals - Fed - related data: The upper limit of the federal funds target rate, the discount rate, and the reserve balance rate all decreased by 0.25%. The Fed's total assets remained unchanged at $66077.29 billion [12]. - Inflation data: The year - on - year CPI was 2.70%, the core CPI was 2.60%, etc. [14]. - Economic growth data: The annualized year - on - year GDP was 2.30%, and the annualized quarter - on - quarter GDP was 4.30% [14]. - Labor market data: The unemployment rate was 4.60%, and the non - farm payrolls monthly change was 6.40 million [14]. - Other data: The geopolitical risk index decreased by 68.60%, and the VIX index decreased by 15.05% [15]. Fed's Latest Interest Rate Expectations The probability distribution of the Fed's interest rate levels at different meetings from 2026 to 2027 is provided. For example, in January 2026, the probability of the interest rate being in the range of 350 - 375 is 86.7% [16].

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. 2. Core Viewpoints - The steel market is in a state of weak supply and demand during the off - season, and winter storage still needs some time. The 05 contract of rebar and hot - rolled coil has not broken out of the recent trading range. For both rebar and hot - rolled coil, it is recommended to hold long positions for medium - term trading [2]. - For iron ore, with the arrival of the consumption off - season, iron ore demand is likely to decline seasonally. The high global shipments and rising port inventories put pressure on futures prices. However, long positions can still be held for medium - term trading [4]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Rebar and Hot - Rolled Coil - **Supply and Demand**: Last week, rebar production increased, hot - rolled coil production decreased, and the production of five major steel products declined. Overall inventory continued to fall. Rebar's apparent demand rebounded slightly, while the overall apparent demand of the five major products decreased. Due to the significant decline in steel mill profits and the end of the consumption peak, steel mill production is expected to continue to decline slowly [2]. - **Cost**: The sharp rebound in coking coal and coke prices in recent days has increased the cost support for the futures market [2]. - **Technical Analysis**: On the daily K - line chart, the 05 contract briefly fell below the trading range and then rebounded quickly, remaining within the recent trading range without a downward breakthrough [2]. - **Operation Suggestion**: Hold long positions for medium - term trading [2]. 3.2 Iron Ore - **Demand**: Last week, the production and apparent demand of five major steel products decreased. With the arrival of the consumption off - season, iron ore demand is likely to decline seasonally. The reduction in steel mill production suppresses raw material prices. The pre - holiday restocking demand will come later this year due to the late Spring Festival [4]. - **Supply**: Global shipments remain at a high level, and the continuous increase in port inventories suppresses futures prices [4]. - **Technical Analysis**: The 05 contract has not broken out of the wide - range trading at a relatively high level [4]. - **Operation Suggestion**: Hold long positions for medium - term trading [4]. 3.3 Industry News - In November 2025, global crude steel production was 140.1 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of 4.6%. From January to November 2025, global crude steel production was 1.6622 billion tons, a year - on - year decrease of 2%. China's steel production in November was 69.87 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of 10.9% [7]. - In mid - December, the social inventory of five major steel products in 21 cities was 7.48 million tons, a month - on - month decrease of 470,000 tons or 5.9%. The inventory decline continued to widen [7]. - The total inventory of imported iron ore at 47 Chinese ports was 164.3615 million tons, an increase of 3.4349 million tons from last Monday. Port inventory accumulation accelerated [7]. - From December 15th to 21st, 2025, the total iron ore inventory at seven major ports in Australia and Brazil was 12.247 million tons, a month - on - month increase of 527,000 tons, showing a slight rebound [7].

投资咨询系列报告 山金期货贵金属策略报告 更新时间：2025年12月23日16时21分 一、黄金 报告导读： 今日贵金属高位上行，沪金主力收涨2.73%，沪银主力收涨4.30%，铂金主力收涨10%，钯金主力收涨涨5.52%。①核心逻辑，短 期避险方面，贸易战避险消退，地缘异动风险上升；美国就业走弱通胀温和，降息预期支撑仍存。②避险属性方面，俄乌、美委、 泰柬等地缘异动风险上升。③货币属性方面，美国11月核心CPI同比上涨2.6%，创下2021年初以来最慢增速，低于市场预期的3% 。美国11月就业反弹超预期，失业率升至四年高位。美联储威廉姆斯最新表示，不存在进一步降息的紧迫性。美联储12月在重重 分歧中下调利率，暗示将暂停行动明年或仅降息一次。鲍威尔指出，美联储的利率政策已处于良好位置，可以应对未来经济走势， 但他拒绝就近期是否会再次降息提供指引。目前市场预期美联储26年1月不降息概率维持在80%附近，下次降息或到4月。美元指 数和美债收益率震荡偏弱；④商品属性方面，白银受到供应偏紧支撑。铂金氢能产业铂基催化剂需求预期强劲。钯金短期需求仍有 韧性，长期面临燃油车市场结构性压力。CRB商品指数震荡偏弱，人民币升值 ...

1. Report's Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The steel market is currently in a state of weak supply and demand during the off - season, and the winter storage has not arrived yet. The implementation of the steel export license system and changes in the production license system have been fully reflected in prices. For both steel products and iron ore, it is recommended to hold long positions for medium - term trading [2][4] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Threaded Rods and Hot - Rolled Coils - **Supply and demand**: Last week, threaded rod production increased, hot - rolled coil production decreased, and the production of the five major steel varieties decreased. Overall inventory continued to decline. Threaded rod apparent demand rebounded slightly, while the overall apparent demand of the five major varieties declined. Due to the significant drop in steel mill gross profit and the end of the consumption peak, steel mill production is expected to continue to decline slowly. Recently, the sharp rebound in coal and coke prices has increased the cost support for the market [2] - **Technical analysis**: On the daily K - line chart, the 05 contract of steel products briefly fell below the oscillation range and then quickly rebounded. Currently, it has not broken out of the recent oscillation range or formed a downward breakthrough [2] - **Operation suggestion**: Hold long positions and conduct medium - term trading [2] - **Data summary**: - **Price**: The closing prices of the threaded rod and hot - rolled coil main contracts, as well as their spot prices, all showed varying degrees of increase compared to the previous week. For example, the threaded rod main contract closing price was 3126 yuan/ton, up 1.69% from the previous week [2] - **Basis and spread**: There were changes in the basis and spreads of various steel products. For example, the threaded rod main basis decreased by 22 yuan/ton compared to the previous week [2] - **Production**: The production of threaded rods by national building material steel mills increased by 1.62% to 181.68 million tons, while hot - rolled coil production decreased by 5.44% to 291.91 million tons [2] - **Inventory**: The social inventory and steel mill inventory of the five major varieties decreased, with the social inventory of the five major varieties dropping by 3.74% to 906.47 million tons [2] - **Apparent demand**: The overall apparent demand of the five major varieties decreased by 0.53% to 835.28 million tons [2] 3.2 Iron Ore - **Demand**: Last week, the production and apparent demand of the five major steel varieties decreased. With the arrival of the off - season, iron - water production is likely to continue to decline seasonally. The reduction of steel mill production suppresses raw material prices. Due to the late Spring Festival this year, the pre - festival restocking demand will also arrive later than usual [4] - **Supply**: Global iron ore shipments remain at a high level, and the continuous increase in port inventory suppresses futures prices. The building steel bar production license system and the inclusion of steel products in export license management have been fully digested by the market [4] - **Technical analysis**: The 05 contract has not broken out of the wide - range oscillation at a relatively high level [4] - **Operation suggestion**: Hold long positions and conduct medium - term trading [4] - **Data summary**: - **Price**: The settlement price of the DCE iron ore main contract was 781.5 yuan/dry ton, up 3.78% from the previous week. The prices of various iron ore powders at ports also changed to different extents [4][5] - **Basis and spread**: There were fluctuations in the basis and spreads of iron ore futures, such as the DCE iron ore futures 9 - 1 spread increasing by 6.0 yuan/dry ton compared to the previous week [5] - **Shipment**: Australian iron ore shipments decreased by 3.41% to 1703.9 million tons, and Brazilian iron ore shipments decreased by 8.77% to 747.6 million tons [5] - **Inventory**: Port inventory increased by 0.53% to 15512.63 million tons, while the inventory of imported sintered powder ore in 64 sample steel mills decreased by 1.52% to 1180.48 million tons [5] 3.3 Industry News - Six special working groups led by multiple departments have carried out inspections in 12 key regions across the country to combat illegal mining of mineral resources. As of now, inspections have been completed in Guangxi, Hubei, and other places [7] - As of the week of December 21st, the global iron ore shipment volume decreased by 128.0 million tons to 3464.5 million tons. The shipment volume from Australia and Brazil decreased by 150.8 million tons to 2814.7 million tons [7] - From December 15th to 21st, 2025, the arrival volume at 47 Chinese ports decreased by 137.9 million tons to 2790.2 million tons, and the arrival volume at 45 Chinese ports decreased by 76.7 million tons to 2646.7 million tons [7] - On the 22nd, mainstream steel mills in the Shandong market lowered their coke procurement prices, with wet - quenched coke down 50 yuan/ton and dry - quenched coke down 55 yuan/ton. Some steel mills in the Hebei market also lowered their coke procurement prices [8] - An alloy factory in Inner Mongolia's Chayouqianqi has successively ignited the first and second silicon - manganese alloy submerged arc furnaces and plans to ignite the third before the Spring Festival in 2026 and the fourth after the Spring Festival [8]

投资咨询系列报告 山金期货贵金属策略报告 更新时间：2025年12月22日16时34分 一、黄金 报告导读： 今日贵金属高位上行，沪金主力收涨2.10%，沪银主力收涨6.06%，铂金主力收涨6.99%，钯金主力收涨涨7%。逻辑：①核心逻 辑，短期避险方面，贸易战避险消退，地缘异动风险仍在；美国就业走弱通胀温和，降息预期放缓。②避险属性方面，普京在年度 媒体活动中坚持俄方停战要求，称欧盟的"抢劫"失败了。中美经贸磋商成果共识公布。中东等地缘异动风险仍存。③货币属性方 面，美国11月核心CPI同比上涨2.6%，创下2021年初以来最慢增速，低于市场预期的3%。美国11月就业反弹超预期，失业率升至 四年高位。美联储12月在重重分歧中下调利率，暗示将暂停行动明年或仅降息一次。鲍威尔指出，美联储的利率政策已处于良好 位置，可以应对未来经济走势，但他拒绝就近期是否会再次降息提供指引。目前市场预期美联储26年1月不降息概率维持在80%附 近，下次降息或到4月。美元指数和美债收益率震荡偏弱；④商品属性方面，白银受到供应偏紧支撑。铂金氢能产业铂基催化剂需 求预期强劲。钯金短期需求仍有韧性，长期面临燃油车市场结构性压力。CRB商 ...

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The steel market is in a state of weak supply and demand during the off - season, and winter storage has not yet arrived. The implementation of the steel export licensing system and changes in the production license system have been fully reflected in prices. For steel, multi - orders can be held lightly and added in small quantities on dips. [2] - For iron ore, with the arrival of the off - season for consumption, iron ore demand is under pressure as steel mills cut production. The supply is at a high level, and port inventories are rising. The market should be treated with a shock mindset, and multi - orders can be held lightly for mid - term trading without chasing up or selling down. [4] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Thread and Hot - Rolled Coil - **Supply and Demand**: Last week, thread production increased, hot - rolled coil production decreased, and the production of the five major varieties decreased. Overall inventory continued to decline. Thread apparent demand rebounded, while the apparent demand of the five major varieties decreased. The market is in a state of weak supply and demand. Due to the significant decline in steel mill gross profit and the end of the consumption peak, steel mill production is expected to continue to decline slowly. [2] - **Cost Support**: The sharp rebound in coking coal prices in recent days has increased the cost support for the futures market. [2] - **Technical Analysis**: The 05 contract briefly fell below the shock range on the daily K - line chart and then rebounded quickly. It has not yet broken out of the recent shock range or formed a downward breakthrough. [2] - **Operation Suggestions**: Hold multi - orders lightly and add small quantities on dips. [2] - **Data Summary**: The closing prices of thread and hot - rolled coil futures and spot prices showed different changes. The basis and spreads of various contracts also changed. The production, inventory, and apparent demand of steel products showed different trends. For example, the production of thread steel increased by 1.62%, and the social inventory of thread steel decreased by 7.59%. [2] 3.2 Iron Ore - **Demand**: The production and apparent demand of the five major steel products decreased last week. As the off - season for consumption arrives, iron ore demand is under pressure as steel mills cut production. The pre - holiday restocking demand will come later this year due to the late Chinese New Year. [4] - **Supply**: Global shipments are still at a high level, and the continuous increase in port inventories suppresses futures prices. [4] - **Technical Analysis**: The 05 contract has not yet broken out of the wide - range shock trend at a relatively high level. [4] - **Operation Suggestions**: Hold multi - orders lightly for mid - term trading. Treat the market with a shock mindset and avoid chasing up or selling down. [4] - **Data Summary**: The spot and futures prices of iron ore, basis, and spreads of various contracts, overseas shipments, shipping costs, exchange rates, port inventories, and other data showed different changes. For example, the settlement price of the DCE iron ore main contract increased by 2.56% compared with last week. [4] 3.3 Industry News - At the 2026 Steel Market Outlook and "My Steel" Annual Conference, it was proposed that the key to the steel industry during the "14th Five - Year Plan" period is to promote the withdrawal of backward production capacity, and steel inventory control should be in line with the 2021 level. [6] - The Metallurgical Industry Planning and Research Institute predicted that China's steel consumption in 2025 may be 808 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of 5.4%, and the demand in 2026 may be 800 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of 1.0%. [6] - The Dalian Commodity Exchange adjusted the premium and discount of the designated delivery warehouses of coking coal futures in Tangshan and Tianjin from 170 yuan/ton to 140 yuan/ton, effective from the JM2701 contract. [6] - The inventory of manganese - silicon enterprises increased, while the inventory of silicon - iron enterprises decreased. The blast furnace operating rate of steel mills decreased, and iron ore port inventories increased. [7][8] - Tangshan lifted the heavy - pollution weather level - II emergency response. [8]

投资咨询系列报告 山金期货贵金属策略报告 更新时间：2025年12月19日16时10分 一、黄金 报告导读： 今日贵金属高位回调，沪金主力收跌0.01%，沪银主力收跌0.46%，铂金主力收跌1.70%，钯金主力收涨涨1.67%。逻辑：①核心 逻辑，短期避险方面，贸易战避险消退，地缘异动风险仍在；美国就业走弱通胀温和，降息预期放缓。②避险属性方面，特朗普称 乌克兰和平谈判"接近结果"，美俄官员本周末将会晤。中美经贸磋商成果共识公布。中东等地缘异动风险仍存。③货币属性方 面，美国11月核心CPI同比上涨2.6%，创下2021年初以来最慢增速，低于市场预期的3%。美国11月就业反弹超预期，失业率升至 四年高位。美联储在重重分歧中下调利率，暗示将暂停行动明年或仅降息一次。鲍威尔指出，美联储的利率政策已处于良好位置， 可以应对未来经济走势，但他拒绝就近期是否会再次降息提供指引。目前市场预期美联储26年1月不降息概率维持在80%附近，下 次降息或到4月。美元指数和美债收益率震荡偏强；④商品属性方面，白银受到供应偏紧支撑。铂金氢能产业铂基催化剂需求预期 强劲。钯金短期需求仍有韧性，长期面临燃油车市场结构性压力。CRB商品指 ...

投资咨询系列报告 山金期货贵金属策略报告 更新时间：2025年12月18日16时17分 一、黄金 报告导读： 今日贵金属震荡偏强，沪金主力收涨0.33%，沪银主力收涨3.44%，铂金主力收涨5.32%，钯金主力收涨涨6.99%。逻辑：①核心 逻辑，短期避险方面，贸易战避险消退，地缘异动风险仍在；美国就业走弱通胀温和，降息预期放缓。②避险属性方面，美欧考虑 停火后向乌克兰提供安全保护，德总理称必要时可对俄军动武。中美经贸磋商成果共识公布。中东等地缘异动风险仍存。③货币属 性方面，美国11月就业反弹超预期，失业率升至四年高位。美联储在重重分歧中下调利率，暗示将暂停行动明年或仅降息一次。 鲍威尔指出，美联储的利率政策已处于良好位置，可以应对未来经济走势，但他拒绝就近期是否会再次降息提供指引。目前市场预 期美联储26年1月不降息概率维持在80%附近，下次降息或到4月。美元指数和美债收益率震荡偏弱；④商品属性方面，白银受到 供应偏紧支撑。铂金氢能产业铂基催化剂需求预期强劲。钯金短期需求仍有韧性，长期面临燃油车市场结构性压力。CRB商品指数 震荡偏弱，人民币升值利空内价格。⑤预计贵金属短期金弱银强，铂钯上行，中期高位震荡 ...

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No industry investment rating is provided in the report. 2. Core Views - **Overall**: The black - metal industry is in a state of weak supply and demand during the consumption off - season, with significant inventory pressure. For steel products, the cost support has weakened due to the sharp decline in coking coal prices. For iron ore, the decline in steel production suppresses raw material prices, and the rising port inventory also exerts pressure on futures prices [2][5]. - **Operation Suggestions**: For both steel products (thread and hot - rolled coil) and iron ore, it is recommended to hold long positions lightly. For steel products, short - selling is not recommended at the current position. For iron ore, a mid - term trading approach with an oscillatory mindset should be adopted, avoiding chasing highs or selling lows [2][5]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Thread and Hot - Rolled Coil - **Supply and Demand**: Last week, the production of thread and hot - rolled coil decreased, and the overall inventory continued to decline. However, the inventory of hot - rolled coil was still significantly higher than the same period in previous years, and the de - stocking pressure of thread was relatively small. The apparent demand declined overall, and the market was in a state of weak supply and demand. As the steel mill's gross profit dropped significantly and the consumption peak has passed, the steel production is expected to continue to decline slowly [2]. - **Cost**: The sharp decline in coking coal prices has weakened the cost support for steel [2]. - **Technical Analysis**: On the daily K - line chart, the 05 contract of steel briefly fell below the oscillation range and then rebounded quickly. Currently, it has not broken out of the recent oscillation range or formed a downward breakthrough [2]. - **Data**: - **Prices**: The closing prices of the main contracts of thread steel and hot - rolled coil showed different changes compared to the previous day and week. The spot prices of some products remained unchanged or decreased slightly [3]. - **Production**: The production of national building material steel mills' thread steel and hot - rolled coil decreased week - on - week. The production of electric - arc furnace steel mills' thread steel increased significantly [3]. - **Inventory**: The social inventory of five major steel products and thread decreased, while the social inventory of hot - rolled coil decreased slightly. The steel mill inventory of five major steel products and hot - rolled coil increased, while the steel mill inventory of thread decreased [3]. - **Apparent Demand**: The apparent demand of five major steel products, thread, and hot - rolled coil decreased week - on - week [3]. 3.2 Iron Ore - **Demand**: The production and apparent demand of five major steel products decreased last week. With the arrival of the consumption off - season, the molten iron production is likely to decline seasonally. The steel mill's production reduction suppresses the raw material prices. The pre - holiday replenishment demand will come later this year due to the late Spring Festival [5]. - **Supply**: Global iron ore shipments are still at a high level, and the continuous increase in port inventory suppresses the futures prices [5]. - **Technical Analysis**: The 05 contract of iron ore has not broken out of the wide - range oscillation at a relatively high level [5]. - **Data**: - **Prices**: The spot and futures prices of iron ore showed different changes compared to the previous day and week. The prices of various iron ore powder products in different ports also changed [5]. - **Shipments**: The Australian iron ore shipments decreased, while the Brazilian iron ore shipments increased significantly [5]. - **Inventory**: The port inventory of iron ore increased, while the sintered powder inventory of imported ore in 64 sample steel mills decreased [5]. 3.3 Industry News - As of the week ending December 17, according to Zhaogang.com data, the national building material production increased, the factory inventory increased slightly, the social inventory decreased, and the total inventory decreased. The apparent demand increased [7]. - The government of Amapá state in Brazil plans to restart the iron ore production of the Amapá project, which is expected to attract up to $200 million in investment. Cadence recently raised $6 million on the London Stock Exchange to resume the operation of the Azteca small - scale mine, with an expected annual production of 380,000 - 400,000 tons of iron concentrate [7].