天富期货有限公司 期货投资咨询业务许可 证监许可[2011]1450 号 本报告完成时间为 2025 年 4 月 25 日 18:00 来源：公开信息、同花顺 iFinD、东方财富 Choice 及钢联数据 市场有风险 投资需谨慎 观点和信息仅供参考之用 不构成任何人的投资建议 务必阅读文章末尾免责声明 作者：刘幸华 从业资格号：F03088692 交易咨询资格证号：Z0016646 油脂偏强、豆粕下挫 一、农产品板块综述 油脂持续强势上行,美国生物柴油需求超预期增长,推动 CBOT 豆油持续大涨,带动油脂集体走高,国内油厂开机率偏低,豆油阶段 性供应偏紧亦助推行情走高。豆粕下挫,受到进口大豆集中到港,油 厂开机率将逐渐回升,供应增加预期升温,且现货豆粕高价抑制下游 消费,施压豆粕期价走低。苹果强势大涨,产区交易活跃,走货顺畅, 库存偏低支撑苹果期价持续劲升。花生持续走高，产区上货量不多、 油厂收购价上调、油脂板块走高等带动花生走强。 内油脂走高。 2. 国内进口大豆清关速度缓慢,油厂开机率偏低,造成豆油阶 段性现货紧张,豆油库存已降至多年同期最低水平。叠加下游正值五 一备货,豆油现货成交放量,支撑豆油价格。 ...

天富期货有限公司 期货投资咨询业务许可 证监许可[2011]1450 号 本报告完成时间为 2025 年 4 月 24 日 18:00 来源： 公开信息、同花顺 iFinD、东方财富 Choice 及钢联数据 市场有风险 投资需谨慎 观点和信息仅供参考之用 不构成任何人的投资建议 务必阅读文章未尾免责声明 交易咨询从业资格号： Z0016875 供应主线再度回归,原油阶段性反弹或告- 段落 摘要: 此前在特朗普对关税示弱后原油随风险资产反弹,但昨夜供应端 作者： 金海东 人亚资格号： F03088653 再出现增产消息：OPEC+6 月加速增产以及哈萨克斯坦能源不足表示 在石油生产上国家利益优先于 OPEC+利益。意外着此前 OPEC+补偿 减产计划落地依然受阻，以及增产下各国对配额的遵守将再次受到质 疑。两次增产消息驱动隔夜油价跌破短期关键位，阶段性反弹或告一 段落。 税表态相似，或都是市场压力倒逼，如果参考此前暂缓关税后与日本 缓慢的谈判进展来看，关税方面的不确定性仍然较大。特朗普的示弱 暂时看作情绪改善，而非关税风险消失，不认为中美对抗会出现反转。 此外围绕伊朗的中东地缘方面，目前美伊两轮会谈结束，谈判 ...

天富期货有限公司 期货投资咨询业务许可 证监许字|2011|1450 号 本报告完成时间为 2025 年 4 月 24 日 18:00 来源：公开信息、同花顺 iFinD、东方财富 Choice 及钢联数据 市场有风险 投资需谨慎 观点和信息仅供参考之用 不构成任何人的投资建议 务必阅读文章未尾免责声明 作者：刘幸华从业证号：F03088692 交易咨询证号：Z0016646 玉米劲升、生猪重挫 一、农产品板块综述 玉米高位扩涨，基层余粮见底，持粮主体惜售，玉米上量有限， 进口量大幅下降，下游饲料需求回升，支撑玉米期价强势运行。生猪 大幅下跌，养殖端出栏增量，二育补栏成本上升，补栏体量显著下降， 生猪供应压力增大，施压猪价走跌。鸡蛋亦大幅下跌，养殖端蛋鸡存 栏高位，下游走货放缓，库存回升，鸡蛋价格承压下挫。豆类偏强运 行,进口大豆受到通关滞缓的影响,迟迟无法入油厂卸货,油厂开机 率持续偏低，豆油和豆粕产出下降，供应偏紧，支撑豆类行情走高。 但后续大豆将陆续入关，供应有望改善，涨幅或受限。 I 二、品种策略跟踪 (一) 玉米： 强劲上扬 焦点关注：玉米主力 2507 合约高位强劲上扬，受到供应偏紧的 提振: 1 ...

特朗普意外示弱,原油再随风险情绪修复上 行 糖要: 凌晨在特朗普表示不会解雇鲍威尔,以及对华进口关税预计将大 幅降低的意外示弱后。宏观情绪改善,原油随风险资产上行修复,市 场的交易重心仍是美国的关税政策。目前来看特朗普对华的示弱与 4 月 10 日的暂缓关税表态相似,或都是市场压力倒逼,如果参考此前 暂缓关税后与日本缓慢的谈判进展来看,关税方面的不确定性仍然较 大,今日特朗普的示弱暂时看作情绪改善,而非关税风险消失。对原 油影响目前仍市反弹看待。 天富期货有限公司 期货投资咨询业务许可 证监许可[2011]1450 号 本报告完成时间为 2025 年 4 月 23 日 18:00 来源：公开信息、同花顺 iFinD、东方财富 Choice 及钢联数据 市场有风险 投资需谨慎 观点和信息仅供参考之用 不构成任何人的投资建议 务必阅读文章末尾免责声明 作者： 金海东 从业资格号: F03088653 交易咨询从业资格号：Z0016875 此外围绕伊朗的中东地缘方面,目前美伊两轮会谈结束,谈判未 破裂,同时有特朗普否决以色列对伊朗设施的袭击,短期地缘暂未被 交易,但隔夜对伊朗有新一轮制裁,仍需需跟踪美伊谈判进展,本 ...

天富期货有限公司 期货投资咨询业务许可 证监许可[2011]1450 号 本报告完成时间为 2025 年 4 月 23 日 18:00 来源：公开信息、同花顺 iFinD、东方财富 Choice 及钢联数据 市场有风险 投资需谨慎 观点和信息仅供参考之用 不构成任何人的投资建议 务必阅读文章末尾免责声明 作者：刘幸华 从业资格号：F03088692 交易咨询资格证号: Z0016646 油脂上涨、生猪下挫 一、农产品板块综述 油脂板块全线上涨,豆油仍受到国内进口大豆通关缓慢的影响, 油厂缺豆停机,开机率偏低致使产出减少,豆油库存下降,加之下游 备货等需求提振豆油期价上涨,带动其他油脂走高。生猪下挫,养殖 端主流规模企业落袋为安,出栏量增加,而二育补栏成本大幅增加, 补栏数量显著减少,生猪供应增加给猪价带来下跌压力。玉米偏强波 动,产区农户余粮见底,贸易商惜售,下游深加工及饲料需求稳中有 增,支撑玉米期价。 二、品种策略跟踪 (一) 豆油:继续领涨 焦点关注:豆油主力 2509 合约继续上涨,供应偏低支撑期价走 间: 1.国内进口大豆通关缓慢,油厂开机阶段性偏低,豆油库存大幅 去化,库存为近年同期最低水平,豆油 ...

Report Summary Core Viewpoints - The short - term upward support for crude oil (external market) has broken again due to the ongoing sell - off of US dollar assets, and short - term crude oil still fluctuates with macro sentiment. In the medium term, Sino - US confrontation is not expected to reverse completely, and the outcome of US - Japan tariff negotiations is not optimistic. After the first round of sentiment release during the Tomb - Sweeping Festival, the US recession trade may return. The Fed's hawkish stance and high interest rates are negative for risk assets. Regarding the Middle - East geopolitical situation around Iran, two rounds of US - Iran talks have ended without a breakdown, but the third - round negotiation this week needs to be tracked. A poor negotiation result may increase geopolitical influence around early May [1]. - After the overnight breakdown of crude oil at the hourly level, it should be seen as a rebound, and the test result of the pressure tonight should be focused on. All energy and chemical varieties are weaker than crude oil, and most varieties did not rebound with crude oil today, with a bearish unilateral thinking [3]. Industry Analysis Crude Oil - **Weekly Fundamental View**: OPEC + will accelerate production increase in May, and Sino - US confrontation is difficult to ease in the medium term. However, short - term OPEC compensation cuts and new sanctions against Iran support the oil price rebound. Crude oil is in the rebound and repair stage after over - decline. The second round of US - Iran talks has ended, and the third - round negotiation information needs to be tracked this week [4]. - **Daily Technical Analysis**: Crude oil has a medium - term downward structure at the daily level and a short - term upward structure at the hourly level that may end. After breaking the short - term support on April 17th last night, the short - term upward trend may end. It should be seen as a rebound in the early morning, and the upper pressure level to be concerned about is around 497. The strategy is to look for short - selling opportunities with reversal patterns in the hourly cycle [4]. Other Energy and Chemical Products - **Styrene**: The cost side is under pressure due to limited upside space for crude oil rebound. The short - term supply and demand of pure benzene are both weak, and the supply - demand situation is turning loose. The hourly - level short - term structure is bearish. Short positions can still be held, with the stop - loss reference being the high point on April 21st [7]. - **PX**: The cost side is under pressure. The terminal textile demand is weak due to high US tariffs on China, and the polyester production at a high level is likely to decline in the future, which will be transmitted to PX. The hourly - level short - term structure is bearish. Short positions should be held, with the stop - loss reference being the high point on the night of April 18th [10]. - **PTA**: The cost side is under pressure. The short - term demand is relatively strong, but the medium - term demand is under pressure due to high US tariffs on China. The hourly - level short - term structure is bearish. Short positions should be held, with the stop - loss reference being the high point on the night of April 18th [13]. - **PP**: From late April to May, PP enters the centralized maintenance season, and the demand is under pressure. The cost side is under pressure due to limited crude oil rebound space. The hourly - level short - term structure is bearish. Last week's short positions should be held, with the stop - profit reference being the high point on April 16th [17]. - **Urea**: The weekly operating rate remains high at 85.74%, and the demand is under pressure in the short term. The supply is strong while the demand is weak. The hourly - level short - term structure is bearish. Last week's short positions should be continued to be held, with the stop - profit reference being the high point on April 18th [20]. - **Methanol**: Due to tariff pressure, the export demand for downstream products is weak, and the supply - demand situation is weak. The hourly - level structure is bearish, but there are currently no trading opportunities in the hourly cycle [24]. - **Rubber**: The short - term situation follows the tariff sentiment. The supply is expected to be loose after the Southeast Asian rubber tapping season, and the demand is weak. The daily - level and hourly - level structures are bearish. Existing short positions should be held, with the stop - profit reference being the high point on April 21st [28]. - **Caustic Soda**: The daily - level and hourly - level structures are bearish. After an increase in positions and a breakdown today, yesterday's 15 - minute cycle short positions should be converted into hourly - level short positions [29]. - **Ethylene Glycol**: The daily - level and hourly - level structures are bearish. It is in intraday consolidation today without a trend reversal. Last week's short positions should be continued to be held, with the stop - profit reference being the high point on the night of April 15th [31]. - **Plastic**: The cost side is under pressure, and the supply is strong while the demand is weak. The daily - level and hourly - level structures are bearish. Short positions should be held, with the stop - profit reference being the high point on the night of April 15th [33].

天富期货有限公司 期货投资咨询业务许可 证监许可[2011]1450 号 本报告完成时间为 2025 年 4 月 22 日 18:00 来源：公开信息、同花顺 iFinD、东方财富 Choice 及钢联数据 市场有风险 投资需谨慎 观点和信息仅供参考之用 不构成任何人的投资建议 务必阅读文章末尾免责声明 作者：刘幸华 从业资格号：F03088692 交易咨询资格证号: Z0016646 豆油劲升、玉米大涨 一、农产品板块综述 油脂板块集体上扬,豆油领涨,因进口大豆到厂节奏偏慢,供需 错配导致油厂开机率偏低,加之五一备货需求提振,豆油需求较强, 库存下降,支撑豆油期价强劲走高,后市关注进口大豆入关和到厂情 况。玉米大幅上涨,基层余粮见底,进口玉米大豆下降,支撑玉米期 价大幅走高,后市或偏强运行。豆一亦大幅走高,因余粮见底,贸易 商挺价等支撑价格走高。自糖回落调整,受外盘下跌拖累,但国内白 糖销售较快,进口糖大幅下降,郑糖回落空间有限,后市仍有再升空 间。 二、品种策略跟踪 (一) 豆油:大幅上涨 焦点关注:豆油主力 2509 合约强劲上涨,受到产出下降、需求 旺盛的偏多影响: 1.进口大豆到港,但是海关检验检疫 ...

Report Summary 1. Investment Rating No investment rating for the industry is provided in the report. 2. Core View - Under the easing of tariff sentiment and short - term strong fundamentals, crude oil is still in the rebound and repair phase after over - decline, and fluctuates with macro - sentiment in the short term. In the medium term, Sino - US confrontation is not expected to reverse completely, and the result of the US - Japan negotiation on tariffs is not optimistic. After the first - round sentiment release during the Tomb - Sweeping Festival, the US recession trading may return. The Fed's hawkish stance and high interest rates are negative for risk assets. Regarding the Middle - East geopolitics around Iran, two rounds of US - Iran talks have ended, and the third round will be held this week. If the negotiation result is poor, the geopolitical impact may increase around early May [1]. - After crude oil turns bullish on the hourly level, short positions should wait for the small - cycle to break through. Today, it has not broken down. Most energy - chemical products are weaker than crude oil, with a bearish unilateral thinking [3]. 3. Summary by Commodity Crude Oil - **Weekly Fundamental View**: OPEC + will accelerate production increase in May, and Sino - US confrontation is difficult to ease in the medium term. However, short - term OPEC compensation cuts and new sanctions on Iran support the oil price rebound. The second round of US - Iran talks has ended, and the third - round information needs to be tracked [4]. - **Daily Technical Analysis**: The daily - level of crude oil shows a medium - term downward structure, and the hourly - level shows a short - term upward structure. It oscillated intraday today, with the 15 - minute cycle turning down, but the hourly - level has not broken down. The short - term support below is the low point on April 17th [4]. Styrene - **Weekly Fundamental View**: Although crude oil rebounds, the upside space is limited, and the cost side is under pressure. The supply and demand of pure benzene are both weak in the short term, lacking upward drivers. After the peak of maintenance ends and profits improve, the start - up of styrene is expected to increase, and the overall inventory is high, with supply - demand turning loose [7]. - **Daily Technical Analysis**: Styrene shows a short - term downward structure on the hourly level. It oscillated intraday today, and the structure has not changed. The short - term pressure refers to the high point on April 11th. Short positions on the hourly level should be held, with the stop - loss referring to the high point on April 17th [7]. PX - **Weekly Fundamental View**: Crude oil rebounds, but the upside space is limited, and the cost side is under pressure. The weekly PX start - up changes little, but due to high US tariffs on China, a large number of textile orders from the US are on hold. The high polyester start - up is likely to decline in the future, which will be transmitted to PX [10]. - **Daily Technical Analysis**: PX shows a short - term downward structure on the hourly level. It oscillated intraday today, and the downward structure remains unchanged. The short - term pressure is in the range from the high point on April 10th to that on April 8th. Short positions on the hourly level should be held, with the stop - loss still referring to the high point on April 17th [10]. PTA - **Weekly Fundamental View**: Crude oil rebounds, but the upside space is limited, and the cost side is under pressure. The weekly PTA output declines month - on - month, but the inventory is continuously decreasing. The short - term demand remains strong, but due to high US tariffs on China, a large number of textile orders from the US are on hold, and the medium - term demand is under pressure [13]. - **Daily Technical Analysis**: PTA shows a short - term downward structure on the hourly level. It oscillated intraday today, and the downward structure remains unchanged. The short - term pressure is the high point on April 7th. Short positions on the hourly level should be held, with the stop - loss still referring to the high point on April 17th [13]. PP - **Weekly Fundamental View**: From late April to May, PP enters the industry's centralized maintenance season, and the start - up rate is expected to decline. The downstream demand is under pressure due to the end of the peak season and export tariff pressure. The cost side is under pressure as the upside space of crude oil rebound is limited [17]. - **Daily Technical Analysis**: PP shows a short - term downward structure on the hourly level. It oscillated intraday today, and the hourly cycle is still on a downward path. Short positions from last week should be held, with the take - profit referring to the high point on April 16th [17]. Urea - **Weekly Fundamental View**: The weekly start - up of urea is 85.74%, remaining at a high level. The demand side enters the off - season of agricultural demand, the start - up of compound fertilizers declines, and the short - term demand is under pressure. Before exports are liberalized, the demand pressure is large, showing a situation of strong supply and weak demand [20]. - **Daily Technical Analysis**: Urea shows a short - term downward structure on the hourly level. It declined with increasing positions today. The short - term pressure above is the high point on April 7th. Short positions from last week should be continued to be held, with the take - profit referring to the high point on April 16th [20]. Methanol - **Weekly Fundamental View**: Under tariff pressure, the export demand of methanol's downstream terminal products weakens, and the MTO devices at ports stop, with a significant decline in demand. Although inland devices are under maintenance, the recovery of coal - to - methanol profits makes the on - time recovery of maintenance highly expected. With the confirmed recovery of Iranian devices, a large amount of arrivals at ports in the future is certain, showing weak supply - demand [24]. - **Daily Technical Analysis**: Methanol shows a downward structure on the hourly level. It oscillated intraday today, and the short - term is still on a downward path, but it is far from the pressure at the high point on April 7th. There is no trading opportunity on the hourly cycle for now [24]. Rubber - **Weekly Fundamental View**: The weekly fundamentals change little, and it follows tariff sentiment in the short term. The current spot price above 15,000 yuan is still at a high level in recent years. After the start of the tapping season in Southeast Asia, the supply is assumed to be loose. The domestic tire inventory is still at a high level, especially the semi - steel tire inventory has further accumulated to 45 days. With the high tire inventory, the start - up rate is likely to weaken. In addition, the RU - BR spread has widened to 3,500 yuan/ton, increasing the substitution expectation of synthetic rubber for natural rubber [27]. - **Daily Technical Analysis**: Rubber shows a medium - term downward structure on the daily level and a short - term downward structure on the hourly level. It rebounded with decreasing positions today but did not change the downward path. Short positions should be held, with the take - profit reference moved down to the high point on April 17th [27]. Caustic Soda - **Daily Technical Analysis**: Caustic soda shows a medium - term downward structure on the daily level and a short - term downward structure on the hourly level. It oscillated intraday today, but the pressure at the high point on April 1st is far away, and it is difficult to have trading opportunities on the hourly cycle. However, there is a short - selling opportunity on the 15 - minute cycle today, with the stop - loss referring to today's high point [28][30] Ethylene Glycol - **Daily Technical Analysis**: EG shows a medium - term downward structure on the daily level and a short - term downward structure on the hourly level. It oscillated intraday today without a trend reversal. The short - term pressure is still the high point on April 7th. Short positions from last week should be continued to be held, with the take - profit referring to the high point on the evening of April 15th [31] Plastic - **Weekly Fundamental View**: The upside space of crude oil rebound is judged to be limited, and the cost side is still under pressure. The peak season of plastic film has ended, the agricultural demand has weakened, and the start - up rate of agricultural film enterprises has declined, while the supply remains high, showing a situation of strong supply and weak demand [33]. - **Daily Technical Analysis**: Plastic shows a medium - term downward structure on the daily level and a short - term downward structure on the hourly level. It oscillated intraday today without changing the downward structure. Short positions should be held, with the take - profit referring to the high point on the evening of April 15th [33]

Report Summary 1. Investment Rating No investment rating for the industry is provided in the report. 2. Core View The report analyzes the trends of various agricultural products. Palm oil is under pressure due to increased supply and weak demand, while sugar is rising supported by strong sales and reduced imports. Pork prices are increasing as the May Day holiday approaches, and soybean meal is rising but its upside is limited by upcoming imports. Other products such as eggs, cotton, and corn also show different trends based on their respective supply - demand fundamentals [1]. 3. Summary by Variety (1) Palm Oil - Focus: The main 2509 contract of palm oil has broken down, affected by seasonal production increase in the origin and improved domestic supply with weak demand [2][3]. - Production: In April 2025, the first half - month palm oil production in Malaysia increased by 3.97% month - on - month [3]. - Import: In March, the import volume was 168,244 tons, a month - on - month increase of 76.42% [3]. - Strategy: The support level is 8000, and the resistance level is 8130 [3]. (2) Soybean Oil - Focus: The main 2509 contract of soybean oil first declined and then rose, with a volatile market. Tight current supply supports the price, but upcoming imports may limit the upside [4]. - Strategy: The support level is 7674, and the resistance level is 7766 [4]. (3) Sugar - Focus: The main 2509 contract of sugar continued to rise strongly. Domestic sales are good, and imports have decreased significantly [6]. - Import: In the first quarter of this year, the import volume was 148,352 tons, a year - on - year decrease of 87.6% [6]. - Strategy: Go long with a light position. The support level is 5963, and the resistance level is 6050 [6]. (4) Soybean Meal - Focus: The main 2509 contract of soybean meal closed up with a volatile trend. Current supply tightness boosts the price, but upcoming imports will limit the increase [8]. - Basis: Last weekend, the basis of soybean meal in North China and Shandong regions soared, and the near - month basis in the north exceeded 750 [8]. - Strategy: Short - term trading. The support level is 3008, and the resistance level is 3070 [8]. (5) Eggs - Focus: The main 2506 contract of eggs declined with a volatile trend. Although the sales have improved recently, the high inventory of laying hens limits the upside [10]. - Strategy: If the price breaks below the 10 - day moving average, go short. The support level is 3021, and the resistance level is 3085 [10]. (6) Cotton - Focus: The main 2509 contract of cotton rebounded with a volatile trend. The market is worried about tariffs, and new orders are weakening. The new cotton planting area in Xinjiang is expected to increase [13]. - Strategy: Close short positions and conduct short - term trading. The support level is 12880, and the resistance level is 12960 [13]. (7) Corn - Focus: The main 2507 contract of corn rebounded significantly, driven by short - covering. The supply is limited, and imports have decreased sharply [14][16]. - Import: In March, the import volume was 81,003 tons, a year - on - year decrease of 95.12%, the lowest level in the same period in seven years [16]. - Strategy: Short - term trading. The support level is 2280, and the resistance level is 2307 [16]. (8) Pork - Focus: The 2509 contract of pork rose strongly. As the May Day holiday approaches, slaughterhouses are stocking up, and the supply is relatively tight [17]. - Strategy: Go long with a light position on dips. The support level is 14385, and the resistance level is 14600 [17]. (9) Apples - Focus: The main 2510 contract of apples rebounded strongly. The inventory is low, and the pre - holiday stocking is active [19]. - Strategy: Go long on dips. The support level is 7700, and the resistance level is 7957 [19]. (10) Soybean No.1 - Focus: The main 2507 contract of soybean No.1 rebounded with a volatile trend, boosted by the rise of related soybean products and the resumption of purchases by CGS [21]. - Strategy: Close short positions and conduct short - term trading. The support level is 4100, and the resistance level is 4175 [21].

天富期货有限公司 期货投资咨询业务许可 证监许可[2011]1450 号 本报告完成时间为 2025 年 4 月 18 日 18:00 来源：公开信息、同花顺 iFinD、东方财富 Choice 及钢联数据 市场有风险 投资需谨慎 观点和信息仅供参考之用 不构成任何人的投资建议 务必阅读文章末尾免责声明 作者：金海东 从业资格号：F03088653 交易咨询从业资格号：Z0016875 原油短期结构转多，但减仓之下持续性存疑 宏观方面，鲍威尔放鹰，在关税带来的通胀预期下不准备提前降 息，仍利空风险资产。中美方面，市场消息多空交织互有矛盾，目前 未见缓和，不确定性仍然较大。 围绕伊朗的中东地缘方面，伊朗与美国在阿曼第一轮会谈结束， 周末将进行第二轮会谈。 如果谈判结果较差，未来地缘影响加大的 时间节点在 5 月初（特朗普给伊朗信件并提出的两个月内达成新核协 议的最后期限）。 板块综述 原油隔夜再度反弹小周期转多，思路转为等破位空，能化表现弱 于原油，今日未随原油短期转动，单边目前仍是偏空思路。 （一）原油： 摘要： 原油隔夜再次反弹后，技术上的结构，短期转多，小时周期由此 前的震荡修复转向反弹修复，但量能角度看 ...