Report Summary 1) Report Industry Investment Rating No information about the industry investment rating is provided in the report. 2) Core Viewpoints - The rebound momentum of crude oil has weakened, and there is differentiation within the energy - chemical sector. The short - term rise of crude oil is driven by geopolitical factors, while the medium - term trend is downward due to fundamental supply - demand surplus. For other energy - chemical products, their prices are mainly affected by their own supply - demand fundamentals, with some facing significant downward pressure [1][2]. 3) Summary by Related Catalogs (1) Crude Oil - **Logic**: The short - term rise is driven by the US sanctions on Russian oil companies, but the actual impact is expected to be limited. The medium - term logic is the downward pressure from the supply - demand surplus. The market should pay attention to the time when the geopolitical sentiment cools down and the market switches back to the fundamental logic [2]. - **Technical Analysis**: The daily - level shows a medium - term downward structure, and the hourly - level shows a short - term upward structure. The intraday rebound momentum has weakened, and the short - term support is at the 463 level. - **Strategy**: Wait for the opportunity to cover short positions after breaking the short - term support [2]. (2) Benzene Ethylene (EB) - **Logic**: The rebound of crude oil has little impact on benzene ethylene. Its own supply - demand logic dominates the market, with high pressure on both the current and expected fundamentals. The inventory is at a record high, and there is a risk of price collapse [6]. - **Technical Analysis**: The hourly - level shows a short - term downward structure. The intraday performance is weak, and the short - term pressure is at the 6630 level. - **Strategy**: Hold short positions [8]. (3) Rubber - **Logic**: Tire demand is stable, but the inventory pressure and high raw material prices lead to low stocking willingness. The supply is expected to increase significantly in the fourth quarter. - **Technical Analysis**: The daily - level shows a medium - term downward structure, and the hourly - level shows a short - term downward structure. The short - term pressure is at the 15450 level. - **Strategy**: Hold short positions, with the stop - profit reference at the 15450 level [10]. (4) Synthetic Rubber (BR) - **Logic**: The supply pressure of butadiene rubber is high, and the inventory is increasing. The cost of butadiene also has high pressure. - **Technical Analysis**: The daily - level shows a medium - term downward structure, and the hourly - level shows a short - term downward structure. The short - term pressure is at the 11300 level. - **Strategy**: Hold short positions, with the stop - profit reference at the 11300 level [13]. (5) PX - **Logic**: The profit is high, the supply is sufficient, and the demand is stable. It mainly follows the cost drive of crude oil. It is affected by the notice of the polyester industry development symposium. - **Technical Analysis**: The hourly - level shows a short - term upward structure. The support is at the 6505 level. - **Strategy**: Wait and see [18]. (6) PTA - **Logic**: The supply - demand contradiction is not significant. It mainly follows the cost drive of crude oil and is affected by the notice of the polyester industry development symposium. - **Technical Analysis**: The hourly - level shows a short - term upward structure. The short - term support is at the 4500 level. - **Strategy**: Wait and see [23]. (7) PP - **Logic**: The supply pressure is high, the demand recovery is limited, and there is downward pressure on the cost side. - **Technical Analysis**: The hourly - level shows a short - term downward structure. The short - term pressure is at the 6740 level, and there is a signal to try short positions. - **Strategy**: There is an opportunity to try short positions, with the stop - loss reference at the 6740 level [27]. (8) Methanol - **Logic**: Due to seasonal factors, there is a certain long - making logic for the 01 contract in the future, but the short - term long - making time has not arrived. The domestic supply and demand have weakened, and the port inventory is at a historical high. - **Technical Analysis**: The daily - level and hourly - level both show a downward structure. The short - term pressure is at the 2320 level. - **Strategy**: Hold the remaining short positions cautiously, with the final stop - profit at the 2320 level. Consider using methanol as a long - position allocation after breaking through the pressure [31]. (9) PVC - **Logic**: The supply is at a high level, the domestic real - estate demand has collapsed, and the social inventory has reached a historical high, with no upward driving force. - **Technical Analysis**: The daily - level shows a medium - term downward structure, and the hourly - level shows a short - term downward structure. The short - term pressure is at the 4800 level. - **Strategy**: Hold short positions [34]. (10) Ethylene Glycol (EG) - **Logic**: The supply is at a high level, the inventory is increasing, and the supply - demand is turning weak. - **Technical Analysis**: The daily - level shows a medium - term downward structure, and the hourly - level shows an upward structure. The short - term support is at the 4065 level. - **Strategy**: Wait and see [35]. (11) Plastic - **Logic**: The supply pressure has increased, the downstream demand is weak, and there is a cost - collapse logic due to the decline of crude oil. - **Technical Analysis**: The daily - level shows a medium - term downward structure, and the hourly - level shows an upward structure. The short - term support is at the 6955 level. - **Strategy**: Wait and see [38]. (12) Soda Ash - **Logic**: The high - supply and high - inventory situation continues to increase, the demand for glass is unlikely to improve significantly, and the downward driving force of the fundamentals remains unchanged. - **Technical Analysis**: The hourly - level shows a downward structure. The short - term pressure is at the 1260 level. - **Strategy**: Hold short positions [40]. (13) Caustic Soda - **Logic**: The supply pressure has increased, the downstream demand growth is limited, and the supply - demand driving force is weak. - **Technical Analysis**: The hourly - level shows a downward structure. The short - term pressure is at the 2470 level. - **Strategy**: Wait and see after taking profit before the holiday [42].

1.东北产区玉米丰收预期逐渐兑现，今年东北玉米单产提升、产 量增加且种植成本下降，新玉米开始集中上市，令玉米价格承压。华 北及山东地区天气放晴，有利于收割及晾晒，玉米上量增大，现货价 格下跌。加之中美经贸磋商达成基本共识可能令进口玉米增加，偏空 因素激励空头增仓打压，推动玉米期价大幅下跌，向前低位置靠近， 走势偏弱。 2.图表上，大连玉米主力 2601 合约大幅下跌，期价跌穿均线系 统，MACD 红柱缩小，技术转弱。策略上多单平仓，轻仓尝试空单。 主力 2601 合约支撑 2094，阻力 2129。 玉米、红枣大跌 一、农产品板块综述 玉米大幅下跌，受到新玉米丰收集中上市的压力，加之中美经贸 磋商达成基本共识可能令玉米进口增加，偏空情绪升温，玉米短期偏 弱，有下探前低的压力。红枣继续大幅下跌，因新枣即将上市叠加陈 枣库存偏高，供应充足压制红枣期价持续暴跌，弱势持续。鸡蛋继续 上扬，因天气降温市场走货加快，库存天数下降，养殖端淘鸡增加， 支撑鸡蛋期价持续走高，近期或延续升势。 二、品种策略跟踪 （一）玉米：大幅下跌 焦点关注：玉米主力 2601 合约大幅下跌，受到新玉米集中上市 的压力： 焦点关注：鸡蛋主力 2 ...

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating The report does not provide an overall industry investment rating. 2. Core Viewpoints The agricultural product market shows mixed trends. Eggs are rising, while dates are falling sharply. The rebound of live pigs is limited, and other products such as soybean meal, cotton, etc., each have their own characteristics and influencing factors [1]. 3. Summary by Variety Eggs - The main contract 2512 continued to rise strongly, driven by improved demand and increased long - position positions. Spot prices increased due to factors like improved demand after cooling weather, lower inventory, and increased culling of old chickens. Technically, it is strong. The recommended strategy is to hold light long positions, with support at 2975 and resistance at 3082 [2]. Dates - The main contract 2601 slumped due to increased supply from new dates and sufficient old - date stocks. Inventory increased, and technically, it is weak. The recommended strategy is to hold short positions, with support at 10660 and resistance at 11000 [3]. Soybean Meal - The main contract 2601 adjusted slightly after a big rise, affected by Sino - US economic and trade negotiation news. Domestic factors such as poor crushing profits, slow forward purchasing, and high downstream demand supported the price. Technically, it is strong. The recommended strategy is to hold light long positions, with support at 2929 and resistance at 2960 [5]. Cotton - The main contract 2601 adjusted slightly after continuous rises. New cotton acquisition costs increased, downstream spinning mills' operating rates rose, and import volume was low. Technically, it is strong. The recommended strategy is to buy on dips, with support at 13435 and resistance at 13610 [7]. Corn - The main contract 2601 oscillated and closed down, with a sideways trend due to mixed factors. Northeast new grain harvest and downstream replenishment situation, as well as price trends in North China, affected the price. Technically, it is in consolidation. The recommended strategy is to hold long positions, with support at 2128 and resistance at 2150 [9]. Live Pigs - The main contract 2601 first declined and then rose, with an oscillating trend. Factors such as the entry of second - fattening and increased frozen - product storage supported the price, but high inventory limited the rebound. Technically, it is oscillating. The recommended strategy is short - term trading, with support at 12000 and resistance at 12300 [11]. Apples - The main contract 2601 continued to rise oscillatingly. Different production areas had different market conditions, and concerns about quality supported the price. Technically, it is strong. The recommended strategy is to hold light long positions, with support at 8728 and resistance at 8900 [13]. Palm Oil - The main contract 2601 continued to fall, affected by increased Malaysian palm oil production and narrowing export growth. Domestically, sufficient arrivals also pressured the price. Technically, it is weak. The recommended strategy is to hold light short positions, with support at 9080 and resistance at 9180 [16]. Sugar - The main contract 2601 fell slightly after a sharp rise. Import pressure decreased, but new sugar supply increased, limiting the rebound. Technically, the rebound trend is not yet curbed. The recommended strategy is to hold long positions, with support at 5428 and resistance at 5470 [17][19]

Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. Core View of the Report The report focuses on the analysis of various energy and chemical products, including their market logic, technical analysis, and trading strategies. It suggests waiting for the end of the crude oil rebound and looking for opportunities in the low prices of weak energy and chemical products during the crude oil rebound. Summary by Related Catalogs 1. Crude Oil - **Logic**: The US Treasury's sanctions on two major Russian oil companies have shifted the short - term logic to geopolitical disturbances. After the market digests the short - term geopolitical benefits, it will return to supply - demand drivers [2]. - **Technical Analysis**: The daily - level shows a medium - term downward structure, and the hourly - level shows a short - term upward structure. Today, it continued to rebound with reduced positions, but the trading volume was insufficient after the intraday high, closing with a long upper shadow. Attention should be paid to the possibility of the end of the rebound, and the short - term support is at the 459 level [2]. - **Strategy**: Wait for the opportunity to cover short positions after breaking the short - term support [2]. 2. Benzene Styrene (EB) - **Logic**: Although the supply - demand situation has slightly improved due to increased maintenance and a small decline in production, the port inventory, a characteristic of hazardous chemicals, is still slowly accumulating and is at a sky - high level year - on - year. There is a risk of price collapse under the pressure of over - inventory. The market has already priced in some expectations, so no short - chasing is recommended [5]. - **Technical Analysis**: The hourly - level shows a short - term downward structure. Today, it tested the pressure from a high position, then moved lower and closed down with a large increase in positions. The short - term downward structure remains unchanged. After the contract change, the short - term pressure level for the December contract is at the 6630 level [5]. - **Strategy**: Hold the remaining short positions at the hourly level and consider shorting again if there is a rebound [5]. 3. Rubber - **Logic**: The weather in Southeast Asia has improved, and the supply is expected to increase significantly in the fourth quarter. The cost support is weakening, and the pressure of slow de - stocking of the large domestic inventory remains high [7]. - **Technical Analysis**: The daily - level shows a medium - term downward structure, and the hourly - level shows a short - term downward structure. Today, it fluctuated within the day. The short - term pressure level is at the 15450 level [7]. - **Strategy**: Hold short positions at the hourly level, with a stop - profit reference at the 15450 level [7]. 4. Synthetic Rubber (BR) - **Logic**: The short - term supply - demand contradiction of synthetic rubber is not significant. The tire enterprises' high - inventory pressure remains, and the supply is expected to increase. The price of butadiene may decline rapidly, driving the synthetic rubber price down [11]. - **Technical Analysis**: The daily - level shows a medium - term downward structure, and the hourly - level shows a short - term downward structure. Today, it fluctuated within the day. Pay attention to the suppression of the pressure level, with the short - term pressure at the 11300 level [11]. - **Strategy**: Hold short positions at the hourly level, with a stop - profit reference at the 11300 level [11]. 5. PX - **Logic**: The supply - demand situation of PX improved slightly last week, but the overall high - supply pattern remains unchanged. Its main logic follows the cost drive of crude oil [13]. - **Technical Analysis**: The hourly - level shows a short - term upward structure. Today, it fluctuated within the day, with the support at the 6425 level [13]. - **Strategy**: Wait and see at the hourly level [13]. 6. PTA - **Logic**: Under the expectation of new device production and restart, the supply pressure of PTA is still large, and the demand remains flat. The main logic follows the cost drive of crude oil [16]. - **Technical Analysis**: The hourly - level shows a short - term upward structure. Today, it fluctuated within the day, with the short - term support at the 4470 level [16]. - **Strategy**: Wait and see at the hourly level [16]. 7. PP - **Logic**: The expected commissioning of the Guangxi Petrochemical plant in mid - October will increase the supply pressure. The downstream demand is weak during the peak season, and the overseas demand is also low. The cost - side pressure is brought by the decline of crude oil [20]. - **Technical Analysis**: The hourly - level shows a short - term downward structure. Today, it fluctuated within the day, with the short - term pressure at the 6740 level. There was a reverse - wrapping pattern near the pressure, but the trading volume was insufficient [20]. - **Strategy**: Continue to wait and see at the hourly level [20]. 8. Methanol - **Logic**: The monthly - spread structure has strengthened this week, indicating potential long - trading opportunities. Due to seasonal factors, the 01 contract of methanol has some long - trading logic compared with other energy and chemical products. However, the short - term long - trading time has not arrived. The domestic supply is high, and the inventory is difficult to reduce [22][24]. - **Technical Analysis**: The daily - level shows a medium - term downward structure, and the short - term shows a downward structure. Today, it declined with increased positions, with the short - term pressure at the 2320 level [24]. - **Strategy**: Hold the remaining short positions at the hourly level cautiously, with the 2320 level on the hourly line as the final stop - profit level. Consider using methanol as a long - position in the hedging strategy after it breaks through the pressure level [24]. 9. PVC - **Logic**: Under the "subsidizing chlorine with alkali" model, the supply of PVC maintains high - level production. The domestic real - estate demand is still low year - on - year, and the social inventory continues to accumulate [26]. - **Technical Analysis**: The daily - level shows a medium - term downward structure, and the hourly - level shows a short - term downward structure. Today, it fluctuated within the day, and the downward structure remains unchanged. The short - term pressure is at the 4800 level [28]. - **Strategy**: Hold short positions at the hourly level [28]. 10. Ethylene Glycol (EG) - **Logic**: The restart of previously overhauled devices and the expected increase in production capacity have increased the supply pressure. The port inventory has started to accumulate, and the support of low inventory has disappeared [29]. - **Technical Analysis**: The daily - level shows a medium - term downward structure, and the hourly - level shows an upward structure. Today, it fluctuated within the day, with the short - term support below 4045 [29]. - **Strategy**: Stop - profit on short positions at the hourly level [29]. 11. Plastic - **Logic**: The expected commissioning of the Guangxi Petrochemical plant in mid - October will increase the supply pressure. The downstream demand is weak during the peak season, and the cost - side is affected by the decline of crude oil [31]. - **Technical Analysis**: The daily - level shows a medium - term downward structure, and the hourly - level shows an upward structure. Today, it rebounded with reduced positions and broke through the short - term pressure at the 6940 level. The short - term structure has turned bullish [31]. - **Strategy**: Stop - profit on the remaining short positions at the hourly level [31]. 12. Soda Ash - **Logic**: The high - supply and high - inventory pattern of soda ash has intensified. The demand from the glass industry is unlikely to improve significantly, and there is no substantial policy intervention on the supply side. The market is under downward pressure [35]. - **Technical Analysis**: The hourly - level shows a downward structure. Today, it fluctuated within the day, and the downward structure remains unchanged. The short - term pressure is at the 1260 level [35]. - **Strategy**: Hold the remaining short positions at the hourly level [35]. 13. Caustic Soda - **Logic**: The supply pressure will increase in the medium - term due to the recovery of previously overhauled devices and the commissioning of new devices. The downstream demand is weak, with limited profit in the alumina industry [36]. - **Technical Analysis**: The hourly - level shows a downward structure. Today, it fluctuated within the day, and the downward structure continues. The short - term pressure is at the 2470 level [36]. - **Strategy**: Wait and see after stopping - profit before the holiday, as there is no good entry point currently [36].

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core View of the Report The report provides daily market analysis and trading strategies for various energy and chemical products, including crude oil, styrene, rubber, and others. Most products are in a bearish medium - term structure, with short - term trends varying. The analysis combines fundamental and technical aspects to guide trading decisions. 3. Summary by Product (1) Crude Oil - **Logic**: Sanctions on Russian oil companies shifted the short - term logic to geopolitical factors. After the short - term geopolitical influence is digested, the market will return to supply - demand drivers. The current rise is a rebound [2]. - **Technical Analysis**: The daily - level is in a medium - term decline, and the hourly - level is in a short - term rise. It broke through the short - term pressure at 447 today, but the volume shows a reduction in positions, indicating a rebound. The short - term support is at 456 [2]. - **Strategy**: Take profit on short positions and wait to re - enter short positions after breaking the short - term support [2]. (2) Styrene (EB) - **Logic**: Although the supply - demand situation has slightly improved due to reduced production from maintenance, the port inventory is still accumulating, and the seasonal inventory accumulation in January is approaching. There is a risk of price collapse, but the market has already priced in some expectations [5]. - **Technical Analysis**: The hourly - level is in a short - term decline. The intraday trend was volatile today, and the short - term decline structure remains unchanged. The short - term pressure is at 6570 [5]. - **Strategy**: Hold the remaining short positions on the hourly - level, and consider taking profit and re - shorting on rebounds. Pay attention to contract roll - over [5]. (3) Rubber - **Logic**: The supply in Southeast Asia is expected to increase in the fourth quarter, the cost support is weakening, and the high inventory in China is difficult to reduce [7]. - **Technical Analysis**: Both the daily - level and hourly - level are in a decline. There was a small rebound with reduced positions today. The short - term pressure is at 15450 [7]. - **Strategy**: Hold short positions on the hourly - level, with a stop - profit reference of 15450 [7]. (4) Synthetic Rubber (BR) - **Logic**: The supply - demand fundamentals have little short - term contradiction. The demand recovery is mainly due to post - holiday seasonality, and the supply is expected to increase. The prices of crude oil and butadiene are the main driving factors, and the price of butadiene may decline [11]. - **Technical Analysis**: Both the daily - level and hourly - level are in a decline. There was a small rebound with reduced positions today. The short - term pressure is at 11300 [11]. - **Strategy**: Hold short positions on the hourly - level, with a stop - profit reference of 11300 [11]. (5) PX - **Logic**: The supply - demand situation improved slightly last week, but the high - supply pattern remains. The price is mainly driven by the cost of crude oil [13]. - **Technical Analysis**: The hourly - level is in a short - term rise. It broke through the short - term pressure at 6460 - 6480 with reduced positions today. The support is at 6425 [13]. - **Strategy**: Take profit on short positions on the hourly - level [13]. (6) PTA - **Logic**: The supply pressure is high due to expected new production and restart of plants, and the demand is flat. The price is mainly driven by the cost of crude oil [16]. - **Technical Analysis**: The hourly - level is in a short - term rise. There was a small rebound with reduced positions today. The short - term support is at 4470 [16]. - **Strategy**: Wait and observe on the hourly - level [16]. (7) PP - **Logic**: The expected new production from Guangxi Petrochemical will increase the supply pressure. The downstream demand is weak during the peak season, and the overseas demand is low. The cost is under pressure due to the decline in crude oil prices [20]. - **Technical Analysis**: The hourly - level is in a short - term decline. There was a rebound with reduced positions today. The short - term pressure is at 6740 [20]. - **Strategy**: Wait and observe on the hourly - level [20]. (8) Methanol - **Logic**: The monthly spread structure has strengthened, indicating potential long - trading opportunities in the future. However, currently, the high domestic supply and inventory are suppressing the price. The seasonal gas - limit in Iran may bring long - trading opportunities later [22][24]. - **Technical Analysis**: Both the daily - level and hourly - level are in a decline. There was a rebound with reduced positions today. The short - term pressure is at 2320 [24]. - **Strategy**: Hold the remaining short positions on the hourly - level cautiously, with a stop - profit at 2320. Consider using methanol as a long - position in a hedging strategy after breaking through the pressure [24]. (9) PVC - **Logic**: The supply is high due to the "chlor - alkali balance" strategy. The domestic real - estate demand is low, and the social inventory is accumulating [27]. - **Technical Analysis**: Both the daily - level and hourly - level are in a decline. The intraday trend was volatile today, and the short - term decline structure remains unchanged. The short - term pressure is at 4800 [27]. - **Strategy**: Hold short positions on the hourly - level [27]. (10) Ethylene Glycol (EG) - **Logic**: The restart of previously - shut - down plants and expected new production are increasing the supply pressure. The port inventory is starting to accumulate, and the low - inventory support is disappearing [28]. - **Technical Analysis**: The daily - level is in a medium - term decline, and the hourly - level is in a short - term rise. It broke through the short - term pressure at 4060 with reduced positions today. The short - term support is below 4045 [28]. - **Strategy**: Take profit on short positions on the hourly - level [28]. (11) Plastic - **Logic**: The expected new production from Guangxi Petrochemical will increase the supply pressure. The downstream demand is weak during the peak season, and the cost is under pressure due to the decline in crude oil prices [32]. - **Technical Analysis**: The daily - level is in a medium - term decline, and the hourly - level is in a short - term rise. It broke through the short - term pressure at 6940 with reduced positions today [32]. - **Strategy**: Take profit on the remaining short positions on the hourly - level [32]. (12) Soda Ash - **Logic**: The high - supply and high - inventory situation is intensifying. The demand from the glass industry is unlikely to improve significantly, and there is no substantial policy intervention on the supply side. The macro - environment is also bearish [34]. - **Technical Analysis**: The hourly - level is in a short - term decline. There was a rebound with reduced positions today, and the short - term decline structure remains unchanged. The short - term pressure is at 1260 [34]. - **Strategy**: Hold the remaining short positions on the hourly - level [34]. (13) Caustic Soda - **Logic**: The supply pressure will increase in the medium - term due to the restart of previously - shut - down plants and new production. The downstream demand from alumina is limited, and the overall demand is stable. The supply - demand situation is bearish [36]. - **Technical Analysis**: The hourly - level is in a short - term decline. The intraday trend was volatile today, and the short - term decline structure remains unchanged. The short - term pressure is at 2470 [36]. - **Strategy**: Wait and observe after taking profit before the holiday, as there is no good entry point currently [36].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The agricultural products sector shows mixed trends, with soybean meal and eggs rising, the oil and fat sector weakening, and various varieties having their own influencing factors and market outlooks [1] - Different varieties have different trading strategies based on their market conditions and technical indicators 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Agricultural Products Sector Overview - Soybean meal shows strong growth due to uncertainties in Sino - US economic and trade relations, poor oil mill crushing profits, and short - covering. The egg market has a strong rebound because of strong bottom - fishing sentiment in the spot market and potential accelerated capacity reduction. The oil and fat sector is under pressure due to high domestic soybean crushing volume and lack of price - support from oil mills and traders [1] 3.2 Variety Strategy Tracking 3.2.1 Soybean Meal - The main 2601 contract of soybean meal is strongly rising, driven by short - covering. Uncertainties in Sino - US economic and trade relations lead to an expected shortage of long - term imported soybeans. Oil mills have a strong willingness to support prices due to poor or negative crushing profits. After the festival, the concentrated release of rigid demand for replenishment and the recovery of the production rhythm of downstream feed enterprises result in a significant increase in提货 volume and a decrease in domestic oil mill soybean meal inventory to below one million tons. As of October 17, the inventory was 970,000 tons, a decrease of over 9% compared to the previous period [2] - Technically, the contract price breaks through the 20 - day moving average, and the MACD shows a golden cross with an expanding red column. The strategy is to close short positions and establish long positions on dips. The support level is 2920, and the resistance level is 2950 [2] 3.2.2 Eggs - The main 2512 contract of eggs has a strong rebound, boosted by the rise in spot prices. After the egg price reaches a phased low, the bottom - fishing sentiment in the spot market heats up, the trading atmosphere improves, and the inventory days decrease. Meanwhile, the breeding end accelerates the elimination of old chickens. If the elimination volume of old chickens exceeds expectations in the future, it will accelerate capacity reduction and relieve the supply pressure. The rise in egg spot prices leads to a large number of short - covering in the futures market, pushing up the futures price [3] - Technically, the contract price stands firm above the 10 - day moving average. The strategy is to close short positions and wait to see if it can break through the 20 - day moving average. The support level is 2975, and the resistance level is 3082 [3] 3.2.3 Cotton - The main 2601 contract of cotton continues to rise, driven by long - buying and improved demand. With the listing of new cotton, ginning factories continue to purchase, and the purchase cost increases. The operating rate of downstream textile enterprises rebounds. As of October 16, the operating load of mainstream textile enterprises was 65.6%, a week - on - week increase of 0.20%. China's cotton imports in September decreased by 18.7% year - on - year, and the cumulative imports from January to September decreased by 69.8% year - on - year, at a relatively low level in recent years. The increase in cotton quotes at Chinese ports reflects the strengthening of demand, pushing up the spot price [5] - Technically, the contract price stands firm above the 20 - day moving average, and the MACD shows a golden cross with an expanding red column. The strategy is to buy long positions on dips. The support level is 13490, and the resistance level is 13700 [5] 3.2.4 Corn - The main 2601 contract of corn rebounds and rises, supported by planting costs and continuous listing purchases by grain depots. In the Northeast production area, new grain is on the market, and grain depots start to purchase. The drop in temperature in the Northeast is conducive to corn storage, reducing the pressure of corn listing. In the North China region, the improvement in weather conditions significantly reduces the pressure of grass - roots grain sales. Deep - processing enterprises have low corn inventories and need to replenish stocks. The increase in long positions in the corn futures market drives the futures price to rebound [7] - Technically, the contract price returns above the 20 - day moving average, and the MACD shows a golden cross with an expanding red column. The strategy is to buy long positions lightly on dips. The support level is 2127, and the resistance level is 2155 [7] 3.2.5 Live Pigs - The main 2601 contract of live pigs first rises and then falls, with limited rebound. The spread between standard and fat pigs in the live pig market attracts second - fattening entry, and the transaction in some areas improves. At the same time, after the previous decline in the live pig price, the cost of slaughtering enterprises decreases, and some enterprises increase the inventory of frozen products, providing short - term support for the pig price. However, the live pig inventory remains at a high level, and the loose supply - demand pattern in the industry has not been fundamentally reversed, limiting the rebound height of the live pig futures price [9] - Technically, the contract price still holds above the 10 - day moving average, and the MACD shows a red bar emerging. The strategy is to close short positions and then conduct short - term trading. The support level is 12125, and the resistance level is 12400 [9] 3.2.6 Apples - The main 2601 contract of apples fluctuates and rises after a small adjustment, continuing to fluctuate at a high level. In the western production area, the price of high - quality apples in Shaanxi is stable, and the picking progress of late - maturing Fuji apples in Gansu is fast, with merchants mainly storing them in warehouses. In the Shandong production area, the redness and brightness of late - maturing Fuji apples are generally average, and merchants are cautious in purchasing. The current market's continuous concern about apple quality supports the apple price. The short - covering of some positions in the apple futures market supports the high - level operation of the futures price [11] - Technically, the contract price fluctuates above the moving average system, and the technical strength remains unchanged. The strategy is to hold long positions lightly. The support level is 8792, and the resistance level is 8888 [11] 3.2.7 Palm Oil - The main 2601 contract of palm oil continues to fall, affected by the increase in Malaysian palm oil production. From October 1 to 20, the production of Malaysian palm oil increased by 10.77% month - on - month. In terms of exports, the purchasing demand will continue to decline after the Indian Festival of Lights, and the market sentiment turns bearish. In the domestic market, the arrival of goods in the near - term is sufficient, and there are more ship bookings for November, weakening the cost support and causing the palm oil futures price to fall under pressure [13] - Technically, the contract price breaks below the moving average system, and the MACD falls into the negative area with an expanding green column. The strategy is to hold short positions lightly. The support level is 9050, and the resistance level is 9180 [13] 3.2.8 White Sugar - The main 2601 contract of white sugar rebounds strongly, boosted by technical buying. According to customs data, China's white sugar imports in September decreased by 33.56% month - on - month and increased by 35.81% year - on - year. The month - on - month decrease in white sugar imports ends the six - month increase trend, reducing the import pressure. The futures price is at a discount, and enterprises have insufficient motivation for hedging, supporting the rebound of the futures price. However, the continuous beet sugar pressing and the relatively abundant supply of processed sugar limit the rebound space of white sugar [15] - Technically, the contract price rebounds strongly and stands above the 20 - day moving average, and the MACD shows a golden cross with an expanding red column. The strategy is to try to buy long positions lightly. The support level is 5433, and the resistance level is 5470 [15] 3.2.9 Red Dates - The main 2601 contract of red dates continues to fall, pressured by the increased supply of new dates. Currently, the process of orchard contracting in Xinjiang is fast, and the picking time is slightly earlier than last year due to the influence of solar terms. The supply of new dates is about to increase, and the supply of old dates is sufficient, putting pressure on the price of red dates. The long - covering at high positions in the red date futures market drives the futures price to fall [17] - Technically, the contract price falls continuously from a high level and tests the support of the medium - term moving average, and the MACD red column shrinks. The strategy is to close long positions and conduct short - term trading. The support level is 11120, and the resistance level is 11320 [17]

原油反弹，关注短期压力位压制 品种 中期结构 短期结构 小时周期策略 原油 偏空 偏空 空单持有 EB 偏空 偏空 剩余空单持有 PX 偏空 偏空 空单持有 PTA 偏空 偏空 空单止盈 PP 偏空 偏空 止盈后无进场点，观望 塑料 偏空 偏空 剩余空单持有 甲醇 偏空 偏空 剩余空单持有 EG 偏空 偏空 空单持有 橡胶 偏空 偏空 空单持有 PVC 偏空 偏空 空单持有 BR 橡胶 偏空 偏空 空单持有 纯碱 偏空 偏空 剩余空单持有 烧碱 偏空 偏空 止盈后无进场点，观望 板块观点汇总 观方面受中美摩擦情绪反复与美国部分银行信贷危机担忧宏观驱动 偏空，但宏观影响最大的铜上周波动有限，表明原油受到的宏观驱动 影响也相对有限（但不排除后续影响放大），原油盘面自日线破位后 不断加速下行主要仍是受制于基本面过剩逐渐兑现带来的中期下行 驱动逻辑所致，OPEC+不断延续增产后，自 9 月下旬以来 OPEC+8 国原 油发货量持续攀升，原油供应量明显放大，并且随着前期发运船只到 港，以及成品油淡季需求拐点，近两周原油商业与炼厂库存均持续累 库攀升，原油过剩逻辑从此前预期转向数据对应开始兑现。目前原油 大趋势依然延续对 ...

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content Group 2: Core Viewpoints of the Report - The energy and chemical sector remains weak, with the downward trend driven by the over - capacity of the chemical industry, the decline in crude oil costs, and the short - selling of market funds. Most varieties have seen a decline of over 10% since mid - September, and short positions can still be held [1][2] Group 3: Summary by Relevant Catalogs (1) Crude Oil - Logic: Geopolitical influence on crude oil is weakening, and the macro - drive is bearish. The main reason for the downward trend is the excess supply. OPEC + has increased production, and inventories have been rising. The downward trend continues, and attention should be paid to whether the April low can be broken [3] - Technical Analysis: The daily - level and hourly - level structures are both in a downward trend. The intraday performance is weak, and the short - position should be held with the short - term pressure at 447 for the 12 - contract [3] (2) Styrene (EB) - Logic: Although the supply - demand situation has slightly improved due to increased maintenance, port inventories are still accumulating, and there is a risk of price collapse due to the approaching seasonal inventory accumulation in January. Do not chase short positions [5][8] - Technical Analysis: The hourly - level structure is in a downward trend. The intraday rebound is limited, and the short - position should be held with the short - term pressure at 6610 [8] (3) Rubber - Logic: The supply in Southeast Asia is expected to increase in the fourth quarter, and domestic inventories are high. The cost support is weakening [10] - Technical Analysis: The daily - level and hourly - level structures are in a downward trend. The intraday increase is a rebound. The short - position should be held with the stop - profit at 15450 [10] (4) Synthetic Rubber (BR) - Logic: The supply - demand contradiction is not obvious in the short term, but the cost of crude oil and butadiene is declining, which may drive the price of synthetic rubber down [12][14] - Technical Analysis: The daily - level and hourly - level structures are in a downward trend. The intraday increase is a rebound. The short - position should be held with the stop - profit at 11300 [14] (5) PX - Logic: The supply - demand situation has slightly improved, but the high - supply pattern remains. The main driving factor is the cost of crude oil [18] - Technical Analysis: The hourly - level structure is in a downward trend. The intraday rebound is limited. The short - position should be held with the stop - profit at 6460 - 6480 [18] (6) PTA - Logic: The supply pressure is large, and the demand is stable. The main driving factor is the cost of crude oil [20] - Technical Analysis: The hourly - level structure is in a downward trend. The intraday rebound is limited. The short - position should be held with the stop - profit at 4470 [20] (7) PP - Logic: The supply pressure is high, and the demand is weak both at home and abroad. The cost is also under downward pressure [22] - Technical Analysis: The hourly - level structure is in a downward trend. After taking profit, there is no good entry point, so continue to wait and see [22] (8) Methanol - Logic: There is a long - position opportunity for the 01 - contract in the future due to seasonal factors, but the short - term supply is high and inventories are high. Pay attention to the technical signal and the gas - restriction time in Iran [26] - Technical Analysis: The daily - level and hourly - level structures are in a downward trend. The short - position should be held with the stop - profit at 2320. Consider long - position after breaking through the pressure [26] (9) PVC - Logic: The supply is high, the demand from the real - estate sector is low, and the inventory is accumulating [29] - Technical Analysis: The daily - level and hourly - level structures are in a downward trend. The short - position should be held with the short - term pressure at 4800 [29] (10) Ethylene Glycol (EG) - Logic: The supply is increasing, and the inventory is accumulating, indicating a weakening supply - demand situation [30] - Technical Analysis: The daily - level and hourly - level structures are in a downward trend. The short - position should be held with the short - term pressure at 4060 [30] (11) Plastic - Logic: The supply pressure is increasing, and the demand is weak. The cost is under downward pressure [32] - Technical Analysis: The daily - level and hourly - level structures are in a downward trend. The short - position should be held with the short - term pressure at 6940 [32] (12) Soda Ash - Logic: The supply and inventory are high, the demand is not expected to improve, and the macro - drive is downward. The downward pressure on the price continues [36] - Technical Analysis: The hourly - level structure is in a downward trend. The short - position should be held with the short - term pressure at 1260 [36] (13) Caustic Soda - Logic: The supply pressure is increasing in the medium - term, and the demand is stable. The driving force is bearish [37] - Technical Analysis: The hourly - level structure is in a downward trend. After taking profit, there is no good entry point, so continue to wait and see [39]

Report Summary 1. Industry Investment Rating No industry investment rating is provided in the report. 2. Core View The agricultural products sector is generally weak. Two types of rapeseed meal have tumbled, with rapeseed meal leading the decline. The price of live pigs has continued to fall, and the entire oil and fat sector has declined. Some commodities such as cotton and dates show different trends [1]. 3. Summary of Each Variety (1) Rapeseed Meal - The price of rapeseed meal has dropped significantly due to the possible improvement in China - Canada trade relations and the off - season demand. The domestic rapeseed meal market is in a situation of weak supply and demand. The main 2601 contract has fallen sharply, and the technical indicator is weak. The strategy is to hold a light - position short order, with support at 2300 and resistance at 2330 [2]. (2) Live Pigs - The main 2601 contract of live pigs has continued to fall sharply because of the increasing supply of market - suitable pigs and weak demand. The technical indicator is weak. The strategy is to hold a light - position short order, with support at 11600 and resistance at 11800 [3]. (3) Corn - The main 2601 contract of corn has rebounded but was blocked and then dropped significantly due to the supply pressure of new corn on the market. The strategy is to close long orders and try a light - position short order, with support at 2100 and resistance at 2120 [5]. (4) Palm Oil - The main 2601 contract of palm oil has first risen and then fallen, fluctuating downward because of the increase in production and the weakness of rapeseed oil. Although the export data is good and the production - reduction cycle is approaching, which limits the decline, the strategy is short - term trading, with support at 9270 and resistance at 9390 [7]. (5) Eggs - The main 2512 contract of eggs has continued to fall because of the large supply pressure. The strategy is to hold a light - position short order, with support at 2932 and resistance at 2996 [9]. (6) Cotton - The main 2601 contract of cotton has oscillated and risen, with the trend turning stronger because of the low - price buying. The strategy is to hold a light - position long order, with support at 13290 and resistance at 13400 [12]. (7) Sugar - The main 2601 contract of sugar has limited rebound and is still in a downward trend because of the supply surplus. The strategy is to hold a light - position short order, with support at 5380 and resistance at 5420 [15]. (8) Apples - The main 2601 contract of apples has risen sharply and then fallen, with severe fluctuations. The market has large differences. The strategy is to close short orders and conduct short - term trading, with support at 8450 and resistance at 8800 [16][19]. (9) Dates - The main 2601 contract of dates has continued to rise after a sharp increase because of the warming demand and declining inventory. The strategy is to hold a light - position long order, with support at 11295 and resistance at 11500 [20].

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core View of the Report The report analyzes the market conditions of various energy and chemical products, indicating that most products are under downward pressure, with short - term macro - driving factors and long - term fundamental factors such as supply - demand imbalances and high inventory contributing to the bearish trend. Although some products have short - term technical rebounds, the overall downward trend remains unchanged [1][2][5]. Summary by Related Catalogs Crude Oil - **Logic**: Friday night's sharp decline was due to Trump's new tariff threat, with short - term macro - driving factors accelerating the downward movement. Fundamentally, OPEC+ production increase and the fourth - quarter demand off - season led to increased supply and decreased demand. Even if there is a technical repair, the amplitude may be limited [1][2]. - **Technical Analysis**: The daily - level shows a medium - term downward structure, and the hourly - level shows a short - term downward structure. The intraday oscillation on the day repaired the downward slope to some extent. The upper short - term pressure level is at 456. The strategy is to hold short positions [2]. Styrene (EB) - **Logic**: Short - term macro - driving factors put pressure on the market, but less than on crude oil. In late October, although there are many plant maintenance plans, new devices are also put into production. High supply remains difficult to decline significantly, and high inventory and low downstream start - up rates lead to a downward - driven fundamental situation [5]. - **Technical Analysis**: The hourly - level shows a short - term downward structure. The late - session position - reduction rebound on the day was a repair action, but the hourly - level downward trend remained unchanged. The upper short - term pressure level is at 6860. The strategy is to hold the remaining short positions at the hourly - level and pay attention to position transfer near the contract change [5]. Rubber - **Logic**: Short - term macro - driving factors put pressure on the market, but less than on crude oil. After the typhoon disturbance, the seasonal decline in tire start - up rates in the downstream demand side exceeded expectations, and rubber supply is likely to increase. High inventory pressure leads to a bearish driving force [7]. - **Technical Analysis**: The daily - level shows a medium - term downward structure, and the hourly - level shows a short - term downward structure. The intraday oscillation on the day continued the repair action, but the hourly - level downward trend remained unchanged. The upper short - term pressure level is at 15450. The strategy is to hold short positions at the hourly - level, with the stop - profit reference at 15450 [7]. Synthetic Rubber (BR) - **Logic**: The main driving factor is the cost - end butadiene. From October to December, although there are planned maintenance of Zhenhai Phase II devices, the output of new butadiene from Jilin Petrochemical and Yulong Petrochemical will be gradually released, increasing supply pressure. Short - term macro - driving factors also lead to a downward trend [9]. - **Technical Analysis**: The daily - level shows a medium - term downward structure, and the hourly - level shows a short - term downward structure. The late - session position - reduction rebound on the day was a repair action, but the downward structure remained unchanged. The upper short - term pressure level is at 11300. The strategy is to hold short positions at the hourly - level, with the stop - profit reference at 11300 [12]. PX - **Logic**: The supply - demand situation continues to weaken slightly, and the main driving factor is the cost - end crude oil [13]. - **Technical Analysis**: The hourly - level shows a short - term downward structure. The late - session position - reduction rebound on the day was a repair action, but the hourly - level downward trend remained unchanged. After the contract change, the upper short - term pressure level for the 01 contract is at 6460 - 6480. The strategy is to hold short positions at the hourly - level, with the stop - profit reference at 6460 - 6480 [16]. PTA - **Logic**: The supply - demand situation continues to weaken slightly, and the main driving factor is the cost - end crude oil [17]. - **Technical Analysis**: The hourly - level shows a short - term downward structure. The late - session position - reduction rebound on the day did not change the downward structure. The upper short - term pressure level is at 4530. The strategy is to hold short positions at the hourly - level established last night, with the stop - profit reference at 4530 [17]. PP - **Logic**: Short - term macro - driving factors bring some pressure. The high - supply pattern remains unchanged, and the downstream demand peak season has not led to significant inventory reduction. The supply - demand improvement expectation has not been fulfilled. More attention should be paid to the cost - end collapse logic due to the decline in crude oil prices [22]. - **Technical Analysis**: The hourly - level shows a short - term downward structure. The intraday oscillation on the day continued the downward structure, and the short - term pressure level moved down to 6740. After taking profit before the holiday, there is no good re - entry point, so continue to wait and see [22]. Methanol - **Logic**: Short - term macro - driving factors have some pressure. Currently, there is high inventory pressure at methanol ports. Attention should be paid to the seasonal decline in the start - up rate of Iranian methanol devices. After the weakening of macro - driving factors, it can be used as a long - position hedge. Unilateral trading still needs to pay attention to the time of production reduction of Iranian devices [24]. - **Technical Analysis**: The daily - level shows a medium - term downward structure, and the short - term shows a downward structure. The position - reduction rebound on the day did not break through the pressure and did not change the downward structure. The upper short - term pressure level is at 2350. The strategy is to cautiously hold the remaining short positions at the hourly - level, with the hourly - line 2350 as the final stop - profit level. For the hedging strategy, methanol can be used as a long - position allocation after breaking through the pressure [27]. PVC - **Logic**: Short - term macro - impacts are bearish, but the actual impact on PVC is not significant. The supply - demand situation remains weak. High - supply pressure persists, and both domestic demand and exports are under pressure due to the real - estate downturn and India's anti - dumping decision. Inventory has continuously increased to the highest level in the same period, with high - supply, weak - demand, and high - inventory pressure remaining [29]. - **Technical Analysis**: The daily - level shows a medium - term downward structure, and the hourly - level shows a short - term downward structure. The intraday oscillation on the day did not change the downward structure. The upper short - term pressure level is at 4800. The strategy is to hold short positions at the hourly - level [29]. Ethylene Glycol (EG) - **Logic**: Short - term macro - driving factors are bearish. The supply - demand situation has not improved, and supply pressure is increasing with capacity expansion. Short - term port inventory has started to accumulate, and the previous low - inventory support is gone [31]. - **Technical Analysis**: The daily - level shows a medium - term downward structure, and the hourly - level shows a downward structure. The late - session position - reduction rebound on the day was a repair action. The upper short - term pressure level is at 4135. The strategy is to hold short positions at the hourly - level [31]. Plastic - **Logic**: The supply - demand change is limited. Attention should be paid to the cost - end collapse logic due to the decline in crude oil prices [35]. - **Technical Analysis**: The daily - level shows a medium - term downward structure, and the hourly - level shows a downward structure. The intraday oscillation on the day did not change the downward structure. The upper short - term pressure level is at 7090. The strategy is to hold the remaining short positions at the hourly - level [35]. Soda Ash - **Logic**: The high - supply and high - inventory pattern has intensified. The demand side of glass is unlikely to improve significantly, and there is no substantial policy intervention on the supply side. The fundamental downward - driving force remains unchanged. Coupled with the return of the macro - downward driving force on Friday night, the downward pressure on the soda ash market continues [36]. - **Technical Analysis**: The hourly - level shows a downward structure. The intraday oscillation on the day did not change the downward structure, and the upper short - term pressure level moved down to 1260. The strategy is to hold the remaining short positions at the hourly - level [36]. Caustic Soda - **Logic**: Some devices in East and North China have maintenance plans, and the supply pressure is expected to ease. The non - aluminum downstream demand has resumed after the holiday, and the inventory pressure has been alleviated. Attention should be paid to the inventory - reduction rhythm of liquid caustic soda. The current situation is still weak, but the valuation is low, so it is not advisable to chase short positions [38]. - **Technical Analysis**: The hourly - level shows a downward structure. The intraday oscillation on the day did not change the downward structure, and the upper short - term pressure level is at 2490. After taking profit before the holiday, there is no good re - entry point, so temporarily wait and see [38].