Group 1: Report's Overall Core View - The current fundamental logic of crude oil is not smoothly realized, and short - term geopolitical risks may re - emerge. The energy and chemical sectors and the crude oil market have diverged again, with the fundamental logic being the main driver. Core products like synthetic rubber and styrene have been declining, and non - core products like methanol have also shown a downward trend. Due to the possible US military action against Venezuela, it is recommended to take active profit - taking actions on oil - chemical related products and wait for opportunities to re - enter short positions after the event [1]. Group 2: Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided. Group 3: Summary by Product Crude Oil - Logic: The impact of US sanctions on Russia has been digested. The medium - term logic is the downward pressure from the gradually realized supply - demand surplus. However, the supply - demand logic has not been smoothly realized recently. The probability of a US sea - air operation against Venezuela is high, which may affect the market similar to the bombing of Iran in July. It is recommended to take profit on short positions to avoid risks [2][3]. - Technical Analysis: The daily - level shows a medium - term downward structure, and the hourly - level shows a short - term downward structure. Today, there was a small increase in positions and a long - yang line testing the short - term pressure at 471, but it did not break through. Technically, it has not turned bullish in the short term. It is recommended to stop losses and wait and see due to geopolitical risks [3]. Styrene - Logic: It is the most bearish product in the energy and chemical sector, with weak reality and weak expectations. The core logic is the continuous inventory build - up due to new device production and slow demand growth, especially with the approaching seasonal inventory build - up in January. There is a risk of price collapse. The possible US action against Venezuela may bring short - term emotional disturbances [6]. - Technical Analysis: The hourly - level shows a short - term downward structure. Today, there was an increase in positions and a small decline. The short - term pressure is at 6630. It is recommended to take profit on short positions and wait for opportunities to re - enter after the geopolitical event [6]. Rubber - Logic: Tire demand is stable, but inventory pressure and high raw material prices lead to low stocking willingness. The supply is expected to increase significantly in the fourth quarter. The short - term contradiction is not obvious, and there is a certain bullish driving force due to continuous inventory reduction recently. The medium - term focus is on when the inventory build - up pressure in the peak season will appear [9]. - Technical Analysis: The daily - level shows a medium - term downward structure, and the hourly - level shows a short - term downward structure. Today, it fluctuated within the day without changing the downward structure. The short - term pressure is at 15450. It is recommended to wait and see on the hourly - level [9]. Synthetic Rubber - Logic: The high supply pressure of cis - butadiene rubber continues, but the supply - demand contradiction is gradually weakening. The main driving logic is the cost side of butadiene. The high supply and high inventory of butadiene have led to cost loosening and the price hitting a record low. The possible US action against Venezuela may bring short - term emotional disturbances [13]. - Technical Analysis: The daily - level shows a medium - term downward structure, and the hourly - level shows a short - term downward structure. Today, there was a large - volume increase in positions and a long - yin line hitting a record low. The short - term pressure has moved down to 10850. It is recommended to take profit on short positions and wait for opportunities to re - enter after the geopolitical event (cumulative decline of 13.5% since September entry) [13]. PX - Logic: High profits drive high - level operation, with sufficient supply and stable demand. The main logic is to follow the fluctuations of crude oil [16]. - Technical Analysis: The hourly - level shows a short - term upward structure. It fluctuated within the day today, and the short - term support is at 6560. It is recommended to wait and see on the hourly - level [19]. PTA - Logic: The supply - demand contradiction is not significant. The main logic is to follow the cost fluctuations of crude oil. It is recommended to take profit on short positions due to geopolitical risks [21]. - Technical Analysis: The hourly - level shows a short - term downward structure. It fluctuated within the day today, and the short - term pressure is at 4660. It is recommended to take profit on 15 - minute short positions [21]. PP - Logic: The commissioning of the Guangxi Petrochemical plant has increased the supply pressure, and the downstream demand recovery is limited. The supply - demand expectation is weak. It is necessary to pay attention to the downward pressure on the cost side brought by the decline of crude oil. It is recommended to take profit on short positions due to geopolitical risks [24]. - Technical Analysis: The hourly - level shows a short - term downward structure. It fluctuated within the day today, and the short - term pressure is at 6670. It is recommended to take profit on short positions on the hourly - cycle [24]. Methanol - Logic: High supply and high inventory continue to exert pressure, but as Iran enters the heating season, the short - term buying time is approaching. The possible US action against Venezuela may affect crude oil, and it is recommended to take profit on previous short positions to avoid risks [26]. - Technical Analysis: The daily - level and short - term show a downward structure. Today, there was an increase in positions and a new low. The short - term pressure is at 2210. It is recommended to take profit on unilateral hourly - cycle short positions (a decline of 14% since the end of July entry) [29]. PVC - Logic: The supply remains high, the domestic real - estate demand has collapsed, and the social inventory has reached a record high. There is no upward driving force. It is recommended to take profit on short positions due to geopolitical risks [30]. - Technical Analysis: The daily - level shows a medium - term downward structure, and the hourly - level shows a short - term downward structure. It fluctuated within the day today, and the short - term pressure is at 4760. It is recommended to take profit on unilateral hourly - cycle short positions [30]. Ethylene Glycol - Logic: The supply is at a high level, and the supply pressure increases with new capacity. Continuous inventory build - up has increased the downward pressure on the market. It is necessary to be vigilant against short - term geopolitical risks in crude oil. It is recommended to take profit on short positions due to geopolitical risks [32]. - Technical Analysis: The daily - level shows a medium - term downward structure, and the hourly - level shows a downward structure. Today, there was an increase in positions and a new low. The short - term pressure has moved down to 4050. It is recommended to take profit on unilateral hourly - cycle short positions (a decline of 8.8% since early September entry) [32]. Plastic - Logic: The commissioning of the Guangxi Petrochemical plant has increased the supply pressure, and the downstream demand in the peak season is weak. The supply - demand expectation is weak. It is necessary to be vigilant against short - term geopolitical risks in crude oil. It is recommended to take profit on short positions due to geopolitical risks [36]. - Technical Analysis: The daily - level shows a medium - term downward structure, and the hourly - level shows a downward structure. It fluctuated within the day today, and the short - term pressure is at 6990. It is recommended to take profit on hourly - cycle short positions [36]. Soda Ash - Logic: The high - supply and high - inventory pattern continues. The demand has further weakened due to the planned maintenance of 4 production lines in the glass industry on the weekend. The downward driving force of the fundamentals remains unchanged. The remaining hourly - cycle short positions should be held [40]. - Technical Analysis: The hourly - level shows a downward structure. Today, there was a large increase in positions and a long - yin line hitting a new low. The short - term pressure has moved down to 1245 [40]. Caustic Soda - Logic: The operating rate remains high, and the supply pressure increases with new capacity. The profit of downstream alumina is under pressure, and the demand growth is limited. The supply - demand driving force remains weak. It is recommended to wait and see on the hourly - level [41]. - Technical Analysis: The hourly - level shows a downward structure. Today, there was a decline in positions and a rebound that did not break through the pressure. The short - term pressure is at 2400 [41].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating There is no information provided regarding the report industry investment rating. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The rapeseed meal market is strong due to tight supply, and the upward trend may continue; the corn market is expected to turn stronger after the pressure of new grain listing is released; the hog market is weak and the downward trend is likely to continue; the palm oil market is under pressure from weak supply - demand in the origin and continues to decline; the cotton market is in high - level oscillation; the apple market experiences a high - level correction; the jujube market has a low - level rebound but the decline trend remains; the egg market shows high - level fluctuations with an unchanged upward trend; the sugar market breaks through and rises [1][2][3][5][7][9][11][13][15][17] 3. Summary by Variety Rapeseed Meal - The rapeseed meal main contract 2601 soars. Supply is tight as import costs rise, domestic rapeseed imports are low, and oil mills' rapeseed stocks are depleted. Technically, it is strong. The strategy is to go long on dips, with support at 2436 and resistance at 2500 [2] Corn - The corn main contract 2601 continues to rise. The pressure of new corn listing is released, and short - covering boosts the price. Technically, it is strong. The strategy is to go long with light positions, with support at 2128 and resistance at 2150 [3] Hog - The hog main contract 2601 continues to fall. Supply is abundant, and demand is weak. Technically, it is weak. The strategy is to short on rallies, with support at 11500 and resistance at 11955 [5] Palm Oil - The palm oil main contract 2601 continues to fall. Production in Malaysia and Indonesia is expected to increase, and domestic inventory accumulates. Technically, it is weak. The strategy is to short with light positions, with support at 8630 and resistance at 8780 [7] Cotton - The cotton main contract 2601 first declines then rises, oscillating at a high level. Sino - US economic and trade relations improve, and new cotton is being harvested. Downstream demand has limited improvement. Technically, it shows a sideways oscillation. The strategy is to hold long positions, with support at 13530 and resistance at 13625 [9] Apple - The apple main contract 2601 experiences a high - level correction. Fruit quality is polarized, and some long - positions take profits. The strategy is to close long positions, with support at 9030 and resistance at 9210 [11] Jujube - The jujube main contract 2601 rebounds at a low level. New jujubes are on the market, and inventory is high. Some short - positions take profits. Technically, the weakness remains. The strategy is to hold short positions, with support at 10120 and resistance at 10340 [13] Egg - The egg main contract 2512 first declines then rises, fluctuating at a high level. Traders' bottom - fishing and seasonal demand support the price. Technically, it is strong. The strategy is to go long with light positions, with support at 3130 and resistance at 3180 [15] Sugar - The Zhengzhou sugar main contract 2601 breaks through and rises. Import pressure weakens, and production increase may be less than expected. Technically, it is strong. The strategy is to hold long positions, with support at 5458 and resistance at 5538 [17]

Report Summary 1. Industry Investment Rating No investment rating for the industry is provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoint The agricultural product market shows a mixed trend. Pigs, palm oil, corn, and jujubes are in a downward or weakening state, while soybeans, cotton, apples, eggs, and sugar are in an upward or stable state, each influenced by different supply - demand and technical factors [1]. 3. Summary by Variety (1) Hog - Market situation: The main 2601 contract of hogs has fallen sharply and returned to a downward trend due to an increase in pig supply, a high total inventory in the breeding end, weak market demand, and strong alternative consumption [2]. - Technical analysis: The futures price has fallen below the 12,000 mark and is below the moving - average system. It is recommended to short lightly on rallies, with support at 11,700 and resistance at 12,000 [2]. (2) Soybean Meal - Market situation: The main 2601 contract of soybean meal has continued to rise. Sino - US economic and trade relations have improved, the cost of imported soybeans has increased, the downstream feed demand is in the peak season, and the oil mills have the intention to support prices [3]. - Technical analysis: The contract has broken through the 40 - day moving average upward, and it is recommended to hold light long positions, with support at 2,960 and resistance at 3,020 [3]. (3) Palm Oil - Market situation: The main 2601 contract of palm oil has continued to fall. The production in Malaysia and Indonesia has increased, the export growth has narrowed, the domestic inventory has accumulated, and the B50 biodiesel plan in Indonesia is uncertain [5]. - Technical analysis: The contract is below the moving - average system, and it is recommended to short lightly, with support at 8,758 and resistance at 8,900 [5]. (4) Cotton - Market situation: The main 2601 contract of cotton has adjusted slightly after rising first. Sino - US economic and trade relations have improved, but the ICE cotton futures price has fallen back. The domestic Xinjiang production area has had adverse weather, and the demand side has stable spinning mill start - up [7]. - Technical analysis: The contract has broken through the 40 - day moving average upward, and it is recommended to hold long positions, with support at 13,530 and resistance at 13,700 [7]. (5) Apple - Market situation: The main 2601 contract of apples has risen strongly. The expected output of new apples this year has decreased, the overall quality has declined, and the high - quality fruit is scarce. The market is worried about post - harvest storage quality and deliverable supply [9]. - Technical analysis: The contract is above the moving - average system, and it is recommended to hold light long positions, with support at 9,100 and resistance at 9,300 [9]. (6) Corn - Market situation: The main 2601 contract of corn has continued to decline in a volatile manner. Sino - US economic and trade relations have improved, which may lead to an increase in imported corn. The new domestic corn supply has increased seasonally, but there is also policy support [11]. - Technical analysis: The contract is below the moving - average system, and it is recommended to short lightly, with support at 2,100 and resistance at 2,120 [11]. (7) Jujube - Market situation: The main 2601 contract of jujubes has continued to fall sharply. New jujubes are about to be listed, and the inventory of old jujubes is high, resulting in sufficient supply [13]. - Technical analysis: The contract has reached a new low in more than three months, and it is recommended to hold short positions, with support at 10,170 and resistance at 10,400 [13]. (8) Egg - Market situation: The main 2512 contract of eggs has fluctuated narrowly after a sharp rise. The weather has cooled, which is conducive to egg storage and transportation. The demand for pickled products and holiday stock - up is expected to boost prices, and the supply - demand relationship is expected to improve [15]. - Technical analysis: The contract is above the 40 - day moving average, and it is recommended to hold light long positions, with support at 3,128 and resistance at 3,184 [15]. (9) Sugar - Market situation: The main 2601 contract of sugar has adjusted downward. The peak period of domestic sugar imports has passed, and the import pressure has decreased. However, the production of beet sugar in the north continues, and the production season of cane sugar is approaching, with an expected increase in production [17]. - Technical analysis: The contract has encountered resistance near the 40 - day moving average, but it is still in a rebound rhythm. It is recommended to hold long positions, with support at 5,468 and resistance at 5,500 [17].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating There is no information provided regarding the report's industry investment rating. 2. Core View of the Report The short - term macro is favorable, but the actual impact may be limited. The market is currently driven by short - term geopolitical factors, but the medium - term logic is the downward pressure from the excess supply in the fundamental supply - demand situation. It is necessary to pay attention to the time when the short - term geopolitical sentiment cools down and the market switches back to the fundamental logic [1][3]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs (1) Crude Oil - Logic: After the US Treasury Department's sanctions on two Russian oil companies last week, the crude oil market rebounded. However, the actual impact of the sanctions remains to be seen, and it is expected to be limited. The medium - term logic is the downward pressure due to the excess supply in the fundamental situation. The strategy is to hold short positions in the hourly cycle, with a stop - loss reference of 471 [3]. - Technical Analysis: The daily - level medium - term structure of crude oil is in a downward trend, and the hourly - level short - term structure is also in a downward trend. The upper short - term pressure is at the 471 level [3]. (2) Styrene (EB) - Logic: The rebound of crude oil last week had little impact on styrene. The supply - demand logic and expectations of styrene itself dominate the market. With the continuous commissioning of new plants and slow demand growth, the inventory of styrene has been accumulating, leading to a risk of price collapse. The strategy is to hold short positions [6]. - Technical Analysis: The hourly - level short - term structure of styrene is in a downward trend. The upper short - term pressure is at the 6630 level [6]. (3) Rubber - Logic: Tire demand is stable, but the inventory pressure and high raw material prices have led to low inventory - building willingness. There is a certain bullish driving force in the short term due to continuous inventory reduction, but attention should be paid to the inventory - building pressure in the peak season in the medium term. The strategy is to stop profit on short positions [9]. - Technical Analysis: The daily - level medium - term structure of rubber is in a downward trend, and the hourly - level short - term structure has turned bullish. The short - term support is at the 15240 level [9]. (4) Synthetic Rubber (BR) - Logic: The high supply pressure of butadiene rubber continues, and the inventory is accumulating. Attention should be paid to the continuous downward driving force brought by the loosening of the cost side. The strategy is to hold short positions, with a stop - profit reference of 11000 [13]. - Technical Analysis: The daily - level medium - term structure and the hourly - level short - term structure of butadiene rubber are both in a downward trend. The upper short - term pressure has moved down to the 11000 level [13]. (5) PX - Logic: The high profit of PX drives high - level production, and the supply is sufficient while the demand is stable. The main logic follows the cost drive of crude oil. Affected by the notice of a polyester industry development symposium, the market traded the anti - involution sentiment in the afternoon. The strategy is to wait and see [16]. - Technical Analysis: The hourly - level short - term structure of PX is in an upward trend. The lower support is at the 6570 level [16]. (6) PTA - Logic: The supply - demand contradiction of PTA is not significant. The main logic follows the cost drive of crude oil. Affected by the notice of a polyester industry development symposium, the market traded the anti - involution sentiment in the afternoon. The strategy is to wait and see [20]. - Technical Analysis: The hourly - level short - term structure of PTA is in an upward trend. The lower short - term support is at the 4580 level [20]. (7) PP - Logic: After the commissioning of the Guangxi Petrochemical plant, the high supply pressure of PP remains. The demand recovery in the peak season is limited, and the supply - demand expectation is weak. Attention should be paid to the downward pressure on the cost side brought by the decline of crude oil. The strategy is to hold the short positions replenished yesterday, with a stop - loss reference of 6740 [25]. - Technical Analysis: The hourly - level short - term structure of PP is in a downward trend. The upper short - term pressure is at the 6740 level [25]. (8) Methanol - Logic: Due to seasonal factors, there is a certain logic for going long on the methanol 01 contract in the future, but the short - term long - entry time has not arrived. The domestic supply and demand have both weakened, and the port inventory is still at a historical high. Attention should be paid to the technical signal of whether the market can break through the short - term pressure level and the time of gas restrictions in Iran. The strategy is to hold the remaining short positions in the hourly cycle cautiously, with a stop - profit at the 2300 level. For the hedging strategy, methanol can be used as a long - position allocation after breaking through the pressure level [27][29]. - Technical Analysis: The daily - level medium - term and short - term structures of methanol are both in a downward trend. The upper short - term pressure has moved down to the 2300 level [29]. (9) PVC - Logic: The weekly production has decreased slightly due to maintenance, but the overall supply of PVC remains high. The domestic real - estate demand has collapsed, and the social inventory has accumulated to the highest level in history. The high - production, high - inventory, and weak - demand structure makes it difficult for the price to rise. The strategy is to hold short positions [31]. - Technical Analysis: The daily - level medium - term and hourly - level short - term structures of PVC are both in a downward trend. The upper short - term pressure is at the 4800 level [31]. (10) Ethylene Glycol (EG) - Logic: The supply of ethylene glycol remains high, and the inventory has started to accumulate. The previous support from low inventory has disappeared, and the supply - demand weakening expectation is being realized. The strategy is to wait and see [34]. - Technical Analysis: The daily - level medium - term structure of ethylene glycol is in a downward trend, and the hourly - level short - term structure is in an upward trend. The lower short - term support is at the 4065 level [34]. (11) Plastic - Logic: After the commissioning of the Guangxi Petrochemical plant, the supply pressure of plastic has increased. The demand in the peak season is weak, and the supply - demand expectation is weak. Attention should be paid to the cost - side collapse logic brought by the decline of crude oil. The strategy is to wait and see [39]. - Technical Analysis: The daily - level medium - term structure of plastic is in a downward trend, and the hourly - level short - term structure is in an upward trend. The lower short - term support is at the 6955 level [39]. (12) Soda Ash - Logic: The high - supply and high - inventory situation of soda ash continues to worsen. The demand from the glass industry is unlikely to improve significantly, and there is no substantial policy intervention on the supply side. The fundamental downward driving force remains unchanged. The strategy is to hold the remaining short positions in the hourly cycle [43]. - Technical Analysis: The hourly - level short - term structure of soda ash is in a downward trend. The upper short - term pressure is at the 1260 level [43]. (13) Caustic Soda - Logic: The production of caustic soda remains at a high level, and the supply pressure has increased due to the commissioning of new plants. The profit of the downstream alumina industry is under pressure, and the demand growth is limited. The supply - demand driving force is still weak under the high - inventory situation. The strategy is to wait and see after taking profit before the holiday [45]. - Technical Analysis: The hourly - level short - term structure of caustic soda is in a downward trend. The upper short - term pressure is at the 2400 level [45].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The agricultural products sector shows mixed performance. Soybean meal and apples are rising, while palm oil is falling, and other products have different trends based on their respective supply - demand factors [1]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs 3.1 Agricultural Products Sector Overview - Soybean meal has a strong rise. The preliminary consensus of Sino - US economic and trade consultations improves the outlook for US soybean export demand, pushing up CBOT soybean prices and increasing domestic import costs. However, the rising domestic soybean meal inventory may limit its upward space. - Apples have a sharp rise at a high level. New apple production cuts and high prices of high - quality spot apples boost futures prices. - Oils are weak, especially palm oil which has a significant drop due to increased production in producing areas, slow export, decreased domestic import costs, concentrated arrivals, and rising inventory [1]. 3.2 Variety Strategy Tracking 3.2.1 Soybean Meal - The main 2601 contract of soybean meal is strongly rising, driven by increased import costs. Sino - US consultations ease trade tensions and improve the outlook for US soybean demand, pushing up CBOT soybean prices and domestic procurement costs. But the rising inventory may resist its upward space. Technically, it shows a strong feature, and the strategy is to go long lightly on dips. The support is 2932, and the resistance is 2986 [2][3]. 3.2.2 Apples - The main 2601 contract of apples is surging at a high level, supported by production cuts and strong spot prices. The estimated new - season apple production drops by about 8%. Spot prices in various regions are strong, driving futures prices up. The strategy is to go long lightly. The support is 9000, and the resistance is 9250 [4]. 3.2.3 Corn - The main 2601 contract of corn rebounds after a previous decline, supported by bargain - hunting. New grain harvest in domestic main producing areas speeds up, and there is demand for replenishment. However, seasonal supply pressure exists, and potential increased imports may limit its movement. Technically, it is still in a weak state, and the strategy is to go short lightly. The support is 2110, and the resistance is 2130 [6]. 3.2.4 Red Dates - The main 2601 contract of red dates fluctuates slightly after a sharp decline. New jujube listing and high inventory of old jujubes put pressure on prices. Technically, it is in a weak state, and the strategy is to sell on rallies. The support is 10300, and the resistance is 10560 [8]. 3.2.5 Eggs - The main 2512 contract of eggs adjusts downward after a continuous rebound. Cooling weather and low prices support spot prices, but high egg - laying hen inventory limits the rebound space. Technically, it is still strong, and the strategy is to hold long positions. The support is 3062, and the resistance is 3130 [10]. 3.2.6 Live Pigs - The main 2601 contract of live pigs fluctuates downward with limited rebound. Although consumer demand increases and supply pressure eases temporarily, high total inventory leads to a supply - surplus situation. The strategy is to close long positions and operate short - term. The support is 12120, and the resistance is 12430 [12]. 3.2.7 Cotton - The main 2601 contract of cotton fluctuates narrowly with an upward trend. Sino - US consultations boost market sentiment, but new cotton listing increases inventory. Spinning mills'开机意愿 remains stable. Technically, it is strong, and the strategy is to hold long positions. The support is 13550, and the resistance is 13670 [14]. 3.2.8 Palm Oil - The main 2601 contract of palm oil drops significantly due to increased production in Malaysia and slow export. Domestic inventory accumulates, suppressing prices. Technically, it is weak, and the strategy is to go short lightly. The support is 8940, and the resistance is 9080 [16]. 3.2.9 Sugar - The main 2601 contract of sugar rebounds sharply as the peak of sugar imports passes, reducing supply pressure. Sugar prices near production costs weaken the downward momentum. Technically, it turns strong, and the strategy is to go long lightly on dips. The support is 5450, and the resistance is 5502 [18].

Report Summary 1) Report Industry Investment Rating No information about the industry investment rating is provided in the report. 2) Core Viewpoints - The rebound momentum of crude oil has weakened, and there is differentiation within the energy - chemical sector. The short - term rise of crude oil is driven by geopolitical factors, while the medium - term trend is downward due to fundamental supply - demand surplus. For other energy - chemical products, their prices are mainly affected by their own supply - demand fundamentals, with some facing significant downward pressure [1][2]. 3) Summary by Related Catalogs (1) Crude Oil - **Logic**: The short - term rise is driven by the US sanctions on Russian oil companies, but the actual impact is expected to be limited. The medium - term logic is the downward pressure from the supply - demand surplus. The market should pay attention to the time when the geopolitical sentiment cools down and the market switches back to the fundamental logic [2]. - **Technical Analysis**: The daily - level shows a medium - term downward structure, and the hourly - level shows a short - term upward structure. The intraday rebound momentum has weakened, and the short - term support is at the 463 level. - **Strategy**: Wait for the opportunity to cover short positions after breaking the short - term support [2]. (2) Benzene Ethylene (EB) - **Logic**: The rebound of crude oil has little impact on benzene ethylene. Its own supply - demand logic dominates the market, with high pressure on both the current and expected fundamentals. The inventory is at a record high, and there is a risk of price collapse [6]. - **Technical Analysis**: The hourly - level shows a short - term downward structure. The intraday performance is weak, and the short - term pressure is at the 6630 level. - **Strategy**: Hold short positions [8]. (3) Rubber - **Logic**: Tire demand is stable, but the inventory pressure and high raw material prices lead to low stocking willingness. The supply is expected to increase significantly in the fourth quarter. - **Technical Analysis**: The daily - level shows a medium - term downward structure, and the hourly - level shows a short - term downward structure. The short - term pressure is at the 15450 level. - **Strategy**: Hold short positions, with the stop - profit reference at the 15450 level [10]. (4) Synthetic Rubber (BR) - **Logic**: The supply pressure of butadiene rubber is high, and the inventory is increasing. The cost of butadiene also has high pressure. - **Technical Analysis**: The daily - level shows a medium - term downward structure, and the hourly - level shows a short - term downward structure. The short - term pressure is at the 11300 level. - **Strategy**: Hold short positions, with the stop - profit reference at the 11300 level [13]. (5) PX - **Logic**: The profit is high, the supply is sufficient, and the demand is stable. It mainly follows the cost drive of crude oil. It is affected by the notice of the polyester industry development symposium. - **Technical Analysis**: The hourly - level shows a short - term upward structure. The support is at the 6505 level. - **Strategy**: Wait and see [18]. (6) PTA - **Logic**: The supply - demand contradiction is not significant. It mainly follows the cost drive of crude oil and is affected by the notice of the polyester industry development symposium. - **Technical Analysis**: The hourly - level shows a short - term upward structure. The short - term support is at the 4500 level. - **Strategy**: Wait and see [23]. (7) PP - **Logic**: The supply pressure is high, the demand recovery is limited, and there is downward pressure on the cost side. - **Technical Analysis**: The hourly - level shows a short - term downward structure. The short - term pressure is at the 6740 level, and there is a signal to try short positions. - **Strategy**: There is an opportunity to try short positions, with the stop - loss reference at the 6740 level [27]. (8) Methanol - **Logic**: Due to seasonal factors, there is a certain long - making logic for the 01 contract in the future, but the short - term long - making time has not arrived. The domestic supply and demand have weakened, and the port inventory is at a historical high. - **Technical Analysis**: The daily - level and hourly - level both show a downward structure. The short - term pressure is at the 2320 level. - **Strategy**: Hold the remaining short positions cautiously, with the final stop - profit at the 2320 level. Consider using methanol as a long - position allocation after breaking through the pressure [31]. (9) PVC - **Logic**: The supply is at a high level, the domestic real - estate demand has collapsed, and the social inventory has reached a historical high, with no upward driving force. - **Technical Analysis**: The daily - level shows a medium - term downward structure, and the hourly - level shows a short - term downward structure. The short - term pressure is at the 4800 level. - **Strategy**: Hold short positions [34]. (10) Ethylene Glycol (EG) - **Logic**: The supply is at a high level, the inventory is increasing, and the supply - demand is turning weak. - **Technical Analysis**: The daily - level shows a medium - term downward structure, and the hourly - level shows an upward structure. The short - term support is at the 4065 level. - **Strategy**: Wait and see [35]. (11) Plastic - **Logic**: The supply pressure has increased, the downstream demand is weak, and there is a cost - collapse logic due to the decline of crude oil. - **Technical Analysis**: The daily - level shows a medium - term downward structure, and the hourly - level shows an upward structure. The short - term support is at the 6955 level. - **Strategy**: Wait and see [38]. (12) Soda Ash - **Logic**: The high - supply and high - inventory situation continues to increase, the demand for glass is unlikely to improve significantly, and the downward driving force of the fundamentals remains unchanged. - **Technical Analysis**: The hourly - level shows a downward structure. The short - term pressure is at the 1260 level. - **Strategy**: Hold short positions [40]. (13) Caustic Soda - **Logic**: The supply pressure has increased, the downstream demand growth is limited, and the supply - demand driving force is weak. - **Technical Analysis**: The hourly - level shows a downward structure. The short - term pressure is at the 2470 level. - **Strategy**: Wait and see after taking profit before the holiday [42].

1.东北产区玉米丰收预期逐渐兑现，今年东北玉米单产提升、产 量增加且种植成本下降，新玉米开始集中上市，令玉米价格承压。华 北及山东地区天气放晴，有利于收割及晾晒，玉米上量增大，现货价 格下跌。加之中美经贸磋商达成基本共识可能令进口玉米增加，偏空 因素激励空头增仓打压，推动玉米期价大幅下跌，向前低位置靠近， 走势偏弱。 2.图表上，大连玉米主力 2601 合约大幅下跌，期价跌穿均线系 统，MACD 红柱缩小，技术转弱。策略上多单平仓，轻仓尝试空单。 主力 2601 合约支撑 2094，阻力 2129。 玉米、红枣大跌 一、农产品板块综述 玉米大幅下跌，受到新玉米丰收集中上市的压力，加之中美经贸 磋商达成基本共识可能令玉米进口增加，偏空情绪升温，玉米短期偏 弱，有下探前低的压力。红枣继续大幅下跌，因新枣即将上市叠加陈 枣库存偏高，供应充足压制红枣期价持续暴跌，弱势持续。鸡蛋继续 上扬，因天气降温市场走货加快，库存天数下降，养殖端淘鸡增加， 支撑鸡蛋期价持续走高，近期或延续升势。 二、品种策略跟踪 （一）玉米：大幅下跌 焦点关注：玉米主力 2601 合约大幅下跌，受到新玉米集中上市 的压力： 焦点关注：鸡蛋主力 2 ...

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating The report does not provide an overall industry investment rating. 2. Core Viewpoints The agricultural product market shows mixed trends. Eggs are rising, while dates are falling sharply. The rebound of live pigs is limited, and other products such as soybean meal, cotton, etc., each have their own characteristics and influencing factors [1]. 3. Summary by Variety Eggs - The main contract 2512 continued to rise strongly, driven by improved demand and increased long - position positions. Spot prices increased due to factors like improved demand after cooling weather, lower inventory, and increased culling of old chickens. Technically, it is strong. The recommended strategy is to hold light long positions, with support at 2975 and resistance at 3082 [2]. Dates - The main contract 2601 slumped due to increased supply from new dates and sufficient old - date stocks. Inventory increased, and technically, it is weak. The recommended strategy is to hold short positions, with support at 10660 and resistance at 11000 [3]. Soybean Meal - The main contract 2601 adjusted slightly after a big rise, affected by Sino - US economic and trade negotiation news. Domestic factors such as poor crushing profits, slow forward purchasing, and high downstream demand supported the price. Technically, it is strong. The recommended strategy is to hold light long positions, with support at 2929 and resistance at 2960 [5]. Cotton - The main contract 2601 adjusted slightly after continuous rises. New cotton acquisition costs increased, downstream spinning mills' operating rates rose, and import volume was low. Technically, it is strong. The recommended strategy is to buy on dips, with support at 13435 and resistance at 13610 [7]. Corn - The main contract 2601 oscillated and closed down, with a sideways trend due to mixed factors. Northeast new grain harvest and downstream replenishment situation, as well as price trends in North China, affected the price. Technically, it is in consolidation. The recommended strategy is to hold long positions, with support at 2128 and resistance at 2150 [9]. Live Pigs - The main contract 2601 first declined and then rose, with an oscillating trend. Factors such as the entry of second - fattening and increased frozen - product storage supported the price, but high inventory limited the rebound. Technically, it is oscillating. The recommended strategy is short - term trading, with support at 12000 and resistance at 12300 [11]. Apples - The main contract 2601 continued to rise oscillatingly. Different production areas had different market conditions, and concerns about quality supported the price. Technically, it is strong. The recommended strategy is to hold light long positions, with support at 8728 and resistance at 8900 [13]. Palm Oil - The main contract 2601 continued to fall, affected by increased Malaysian palm oil production and narrowing export growth. Domestically, sufficient arrivals also pressured the price. Technically, it is weak. The recommended strategy is to hold light short positions, with support at 9080 and resistance at 9180 [16]. Sugar - The main contract 2601 fell slightly after a sharp rise. Import pressure decreased, but new sugar supply increased, limiting the rebound. Technically, the rebound trend is not yet curbed. The recommended strategy is to hold long positions, with support at 5428 and resistance at 5470 [17][19]

Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. Core View of the Report The report focuses on the analysis of various energy and chemical products, including their market logic, technical analysis, and trading strategies. It suggests waiting for the end of the crude oil rebound and looking for opportunities in the low prices of weak energy and chemical products during the crude oil rebound. Summary by Related Catalogs 1. Crude Oil - **Logic**: The US Treasury's sanctions on two major Russian oil companies have shifted the short - term logic to geopolitical disturbances. After the market digests the short - term geopolitical benefits, it will return to supply - demand drivers [2]. - **Technical Analysis**: The daily - level shows a medium - term downward structure, and the hourly - level shows a short - term upward structure. Today, it continued to rebound with reduced positions, but the trading volume was insufficient after the intraday high, closing with a long upper shadow. Attention should be paid to the possibility of the end of the rebound, and the short - term support is at the 459 level [2]. - **Strategy**: Wait for the opportunity to cover short positions after breaking the short - term support [2]. 2. Benzene Styrene (EB) - **Logic**: Although the supply - demand situation has slightly improved due to increased maintenance and a small decline in production, the port inventory, a characteristic of hazardous chemicals, is still slowly accumulating and is at a sky - high level year - on - year. There is a risk of price collapse under the pressure of over - inventory. The market has already priced in some expectations, so no short - chasing is recommended [5]. - **Technical Analysis**: The hourly - level shows a short - term downward structure. Today, it tested the pressure from a high position, then moved lower and closed down with a large increase in positions. The short - term downward structure remains unchanged. After the contract change, the short - term pressure level for the December contract is at the 6630 level [5]. - **Strategy**: Hold the remaining short positions at the hourly level and consider shorting again if there is a rebound [5]. 3. Rubber - **Logic**: The weather in Southeast Asia has improved, and the supply is expected to increase significantly in the fourth quarter. The cost support is weakening, and the pressure of slow de - stocking of the large domestic inventory remains high [7]. - **Technical Analysis**: The daily - level shows a medium - term downward structure, and the hourly - level shows a short - term downward structure. Today, it fluctuated within the day. The short - term pressure level is at the 15450 level [7]. - **Strategy**: Hold short positions at the hourly level, with a stop - profit reference at the 15450 level [7]. 4. Synthetic Rubber (BR) - **Logic**: The short - term supply - demand contradiction of synthetic rubber is not significant. The tire enterprises' high - inventory pressure remains, and the supply is expected to increase. The price of butadiene may decline rapidly, driving the synthetic rubber price down [11]. - **Technical Analysis**: The daily - level shows a medium - term downward structure, and the hourly - level shows a short - term downward structure. Today, it fluctuated within the day. Pay attention to the suppression of the pressure level, with the short - term pressure at the 11300 level [11]. - **Strategy**: Hold short positions at the hourly level, with a stop - profit reference at the 11300 level [11]. 5. PX - **Logic**: The supply - demand situation of PX improved slightly last week, but the overall high - supply pattern remains unchanged. Its main logic follows the cost drive of crude oil [13]. - **Technical Analysis**: The hourly - level shows a short - term upward structure. Today, it fluctuated within the day, with the support at the 6425 level [13]. - **Strategy**: Wait and see at the hourly level [13]. 6. PTA - **Logic**: Under the expectation of new device production and restart, the supply pressure of PTA is still large, and the demand remains flat. The main logic follows the cost drive of crude oil [16]. - **Technical Analysis**: The hourly - level shows a short - term upward structure. Today, it fluctuated within the day, with the short - term support at the 4470 level [16]. - **Strategy**: Wait and see at the hourly level [16]. 7. PP - **Logic**: The expected commissioning of the Guangxi Petrochemical plant in mid - October will increase the supply pressure. The downstream demand is weak during the peak season, and the overseas demand is also low. The cost - side pressure is brought by the decline of crude oil [20]. - **Technical Analysis**: The hourly - level shows a short - term downward structure. Today, it fluctuated within the day, with the short - term pressure at the 6740 level. There was a reverse - wrapping pattern near the pressure, but the trading volume was insufficient [20]. - **Strategy**: Continue to wait and see at the hourly level [20]. 8. Methanol - **Logic**: The monthly - spread structure has strengthened this week, indicating potential long - trading opportunities. Due to seasonal factors, the 01 contract of methanol has some long - trading logic compared with other energy and chemical products. However, the short - term long - trading time has not arrived. The domestic supply is high, and the inventory is difficult to reduce [22][24]. - **Technical Analysis**: The daily - level shows a medium - term downward structure, and the short - term shows a downward structure. Today, it declined with increased positions, with the short - term pressure at the 2320 level [24]. - **Strategy**: Hold the remaining short positions at the hourly level cautiously, with the 2320 level on the hourly line as the final stop - profit level. Consider using methanol as a long - position in the hedging strategy after it breaks through the pressure level [24]. 9. PVC - **Logic**: Under the "subsidizing chlorine with alkali" model, the supply of PVC maintains high - level production. The domestic real - estate demand is still low year - on - year, and the social inventory continues to accumulate [26]. - **Technical Analysis**: The daily - level shows a medium - term downward structure, and the hourly - level shows a short - term downward structure. Today, it fluctuated within the day, and the downward structure remains unchanged. The short - term pressure is at the 4800 level [28]. - **Strategy**: Hold short positions at the hourly level [28]. 10. Ethylene Glycol (EG) - **Logic**: The restart of previously overhauled devices and the expected increase in production capacity have increased the supply pressure. The port inventory has started to accumulate, and the support of low inventory has disappeared [29]. - **Technical Analysis**: The daily - level shows a medium - term downward structure, and the hourly - level shows an upward structure. Today, it fluctuated within the day, with the short - term support below 4045 [29]. - **Strategy**: Stop - profit on short positions at the hourly level [29]. 11. Plastic - **Logic**: The expected commissioning of the Guangxi Petrochemical plant in mid - October will increase the supply pressure. The downstream demand is weak during the peak season, and the cost - side is affected by the decline of crude oil [31]. - **Technical Analysis**: The daily - level shows a medium - term downward structure, and the hourly - level shows an upward structure. Today, it rebounded with reduced positions and broke through the short - term pressure at the 6940 level. The short - term structure has turned bullish [31]. - **Strategy**: Stop - profit on the remaining short positions at the hourly level [31]. 12. Soda Ash - **Logic**: The high - supply and high - inventory pattern of soda ash has intensified. The demand from the glass industry is unlikely to improve significantly, and there is no substantial policy intervention on the supply side. The market is under downward pressure [35]. - **Technical Analysis**: The hourly - level shows a downward structure. Today, it fluctuated within the day, and the downward structure remains unchanged. The short - term pressure is at the 1260 level [35]. - **Strategy**: Hold the remaining short positions at the hourly level [35]. 13. Caustic Soda - **Logic**: The supply pressure will increase in the medium - term due to the recovery of previously overhauled devices and the commissioning of new devices. The downstream demand is weak, with limited profit in the alumina industry [36]. - **Technical Analysis**: The hourly - level shows a downward structure. Today, it fluctuated within the day, and the downward structure continues. The short - term pressure is at the 2470 level [36]. - **Strategy**: Wait and see after stopping - profit before the holiday, as there is no good entry point currently [36].

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core View of the Report The report provides daily market analysis and trading strategies for various energy and chemical products, including crude oil, styrene, rubber, and others. Most products are in a bearish medium - term structure, with short - term trends varying. The analysis combines fundamental and technical aspects to guide trading decisions. 3. Summary by Product (1) Crude Oil - **Logic**: Sanctions on Russian oil companies shifted the short - term logic to geopolitical factors. After the short - term geopolitical influence is digested, the market will return to supply - demand drivers. The current rise is a rebound [2]. - **Technical Analysis**: The daily - level is in a medium - term decline, and the hourly - level is in a short - term rise. It broke through the short - term pressure at 447 today, but the volume shows a reduction in positions, indicating a rebound. The short - term support is at 456 [2]. - **Strategy**: Take profit on short positions and wait to re - enter short positions after breaking the short - term support [2]. (2) Styrene (EB) - **Logic**: Although the supply - demand situation has slightly improved due to reduced production from maintenance, the port inventory is still accumulating, and the seasonal inventory accumulation in January is approaching. There is a risk of price collapse, but the market has already priced in some expectations [5]. - **Technical Analysis**: The hourly - level is in a short - term decline. The intraday trend was volatile today, and the short - term decline structure remains unchanged. The short - term pressure is at 6570 [5]. - **Strategy**: Hold the remaining short positions on the hourly - level, and consider taking profit and re - shorting on rebounds. Pay attention to contract roll - over [5]. (3) Rubber - **Logic**: The supply in Southeast Asia is expected to increase in the fourth quarter, the cost support is weakening, and the high inventory in China is difficult to reduce [7]. - **Technical Analysis**: Both the daily - level and hourly - level are in a decline. There was a small rebound with reduced positions today. The short - term pressure is at 15450 [7]. - **Strategy**: Hold short positions on the hourly - level, with a stop - profit reference of 15450 [7]. (4) Synthetic Rubber (BR) - **Logic**: The supply - demand fundamentals have little short - term contradiction. The demand recovery is mainly due to post - holiday seasonality, and the supply is expected to increase. The prices of crude oil and butadiene are the main driving factors, and the price of butadiene may decline [11]. - **Technical Analysis**: Both the daily - level and hourly - level are in a decline. There was a small rebound with reduced positions today. The short - term pressure is at 11300 [11]. - **Strategy**: Hold short positions on the hourly - level, with a stop - profit reference of 11300 [11]. (5) PX - **Logic**: The supply - demand situation improved slightly last week, but the high - supply pattern remains. The price is mainly driven by the cost of crude oil [13]. - **Technical Analysis**: The hourly - level is in a short - term rise. It broke through the short - term pressure at 6460 - 6480 with reduced positions today. The support is at 6425 [13]. - **Strategy**: Take profit on short positions on the hourly - level [13]. (6) PTA - **Logic**: The supply pressure is high due to expected new production and restart of plants, and the demand is flat. The price is mainly driven by the cost of crude oil [16]. - **Technical Analysis**: The hourly - level is in a short - term rise. There was a small rebound with reduced positions today. The short - term support is at 4470 [16]. - **Strategy**: Wait and observe on the hourly - level [16]. (7) PP - **Logic**: The expected new production from Guangxi Petrochemical will increase the supply pressure. The downstream demand is weak during the peak season, and the overseas demand is low. The cost is under pressure due to the decline in crude oil prices [20]. - **Technical Analysis**: The hourly - level is in a short - term decline. There was a rebound with reduced positions today. The short - term pressure is at 6740 [20]. - **Strategy**: Wait and observe on the hourly - level [20]. (8) Methanol - **Logic**: The monthly spread structure has strengthened, indicating potential long - trading opportunities in the future. However, currently, the high domestic supply and inventory are suppressing the price. The seasonal gas - limit in Iran may bring long - trading opportunities later [22][24]. - **Technical Analysis**: Both the daily - level and hourly - level are in a decline. There was a rebound with reduced positions today. The short - term pressure is at 2320 [24]. - **Strategy**: Hold the remaining short positions on the hourly - level cautiously, with a stop - profit at 2320. Consider using methanol as a long - position in a hedging strategy after breaking through the pressure [24]. (9) PVC - **Logic**: The supply is high due to the "chlor - alkali balance" strategy. The domestic real - estate demand is low, and the social inventory is accumulating [27]. - **Technical Analysis**: Both the daily - level and hourly - level are in a decline. The intraday trend was volatile today, and the short - term decline structure remains unchanged. The short - term pressure is at 4800 [27]. - **Strategy**: Hold short positions on the hourly - level [27]. (10) Ethylene Glycol (EG) - **Logic**: The restart of previously - shut - down plants and expected new production are increasing the supply pressure. The port inventory is starting to accumulate, and the low - inventory support is disappearing [28]. - **Technical Analysis**: The daily - level is in a medium - term decline, and the hourly - level is in a short - term rise. It broke through the short - term pressure at 4060 with reduced positions today. The short - term support is below 4045 [28]. - **Strategy**: Take profit on short positions on the hourly - level [28]. (11) Plastic - **Logic**: The expected new production from Guangxi Petrochemical will increase the supply pressure. The downstream demand is weak during the peak season, and the cost is under pressure due to the decline in crude oil prices [32]. - **Technical Analysis**: The daily - level is in a medium - term decline, and the hourly - level is in a short - term rise. It broke through the short - term pressure at 6940 with reduced positions today [32]. - **Strategy**: Take profit on the remaining short positions on the hourly - level [32]. (12) Soda Ash - **Logic**: The high - supply and high - inventory situation is intensifying. The demand from the glass industry is unlikely to improve significantly, and there is no substantial policy intervention on the supply side. The macro - environment is also bearish [34]. - **Technical Analysis**: The hourly - level is in a short - term decline. There was a rebound with reduced positions today, and the short - term decline structure remains unchanged. The short - term pressure is at 1260 [34]. - **Strategy**: Hold the remaining short positions on the hourly - level [34]. (13) Caustic Soda - **Logic**: The supply pressure will increase in the medium - term due to the restart of previously - shut - down plants and new production. The downstream demand from alumina is limited, and the overall demand is stable. The supply - demand situation is bearish [36]. - **Technical Analysis**: The hourly - level is in a short - term decline. The intraday trend was volatile today, and the short - term decline structure remains unchanged. The short - term pressure is at 2470 [36]. - **Strategy**: Wait and observe after taking profit before the holiday, as there is no good entry point currently [36].