碳酸锂、多晶硅、工业硅日报 （一）碳酸锂 1、江西锂矿项目的复产和锂精矿进口量会是影响节奏和波动率 的重要因素。 2、留意近低远高结构什么时候转变成近高远低结构。之前两波 上涨行情，期限结构转为近高远低结构时，很快就是阶段顶部。 碳酸锂 2605 合约 2 小时级别周期 （二）多晶硅 市场走势：今日多晶硅期货震荡偏弱运行，主力 2601 合约较上 一交易日收盘价下跌 0.90%，报 56915 元/吨。 核心逻辑：今日碳酸锂周度数据公布，延续去库格局，去库幅度 基本稳定。短期来看，碳酸锂有所转弱，主因 12 月动力需求呈现降 温态势，对消费端支撑力度有所减弱。同时，国内锂矿复产预期持续 对盘面带来扰动，拖累碳酸锂走势。不过总体来讲，在对碳酸锂长期 需求看好的预期下，预计锂价易涨难跌。 技术面分析：今日碳酸锂期货整体持仓量大幅下降。日内 10： 35 有"三线共振法"叠加成交量放量下行介入机会，给到 1：2 盈亏 比。当前碳酸锂主力 2605 合约 5 分钟级别周期为绿线红带红阶梯。 隔夜 2 小时级别周期转为绿色阶梯线偏弱，多空分水位 97320 元/吨。 策略建议：在"强现实，强预期"的大背景下，操作上仍以 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The overall agricultural products sector showed mixed trends. The oil and fat sector declined, with palm oil adjusting from its high due to expected high inventories at the end of November in Malaysia. Sugar prices dropped significantly because of the seasonal supply pressure from the peak of sugar cane crushing in southern China. Apple prices adjusted at a high level, but the decline was limited by low inventories and might remain strong in the future. Other products like eggs, cotton, etc., also had their own market characteristics and trends [1]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs 3.1 Palm Oil - The Dalian palm oil main contract 2601 adjusted downward from its high. The market expected the Malaysian palm oil inventory to increase to a 6 - year - and - a - half high in November due to a large month - on - month decline in exports. However, the decline might be limited as the production reduction season approached. Technically, the MACD showed a golden cross with a continuing red column, and the uptrend was not reversed. It was recommended to hold long positions [2]. 3.2 Apple - The apple main contract 2605 adjusted at a high level but the decline was limited. As of December 3, the national apple cold - storage inventory was 763.51 million tons, a month - on - month decrease of 3.24 million tons. With the approaching of holidays, apple consumption might enter a peak season, but it was also affected by competing citrus fruits. Technically, the price remained above the 10 - day moving average, and long positions were recommended to be held [3]. 3.3 Eggs - Egg contracts maintained the characteristic of near - term weakness and long - term strength. The near - month contract 2601 first declined and then rebounded, but the weakness was not reversed due to high production capacity. The egg - laying hen inventory was high, demand started slowly, and inventory days increased. The main contract 2601 was still below the moving averages, and short positions were recommended to be held [6]. 3.4 Sugar - The Zhengzhou sugar main contract 2601 dropped significantly due to the supply pressure of new sugar. The sugar - cane crushing in Guangxi and Yunnan was advancing, and new sugar was constantly coming onto the market, causing the spot price to fall. Technically, the price broke below the moving average system, and it was recommended to go short on rallies [7][9]. 3.5 Cotton - The cotton main contract 2601 oscillated and closed up, showing a strong trend. As of November 27, the national cotton sales rate was 33.2%, a year - on - year increase of 18.9 percentage points, indicating strong demand. Xinjiang textile enterprises had a high operating rate and sufficient orders. The futures price was at a high level, and it was recommended to go long on dips with a support level of 13,680 [10]. 3.6 Soybean Meal - The soybean meal main contract 2601 first declined and then rebounded, with the decline limited. Domestic imported soybeans were abundant, and the inventory of soybean meal had recovered to about 1.2 million tons. However, the high cost of imported soybeans and supply uncertainties in the first quarter supported the price. The main contract 2605 oscillated and declined, but the decline was limited, and short - term trading was recommended [12]. 3.7 Peanuts - The peanut main contract 2603 rebounded slightly after being supported at the 10 - day moving average. The peanuts in the Northeast were of high quality but with light trading volume. The demand side was cautious in purchasing, and the trading atmosphere was light. It was recommended to hold a small long position with a stop - loss set at the 10 - day moving average [15]. 3.8 Pigs - The pig main contract 2603 continued to trade sideways at a low level, showing a weak trend. The pig inventory was high, and the planned slaughter volume of large - scale pig enterprises in December increased month - on - month. The demand side was weak due to the late start of family curing and sufficient supply of substitute products. Short - term short - side trading was recommended [16][18]. 3.9 Red Dates - The red date main contract 2601 oscillated weakly at a low level. The inventory of red dates in Xinjiang was much higher than the same period last year, and the market supply pressure was large. With the listing of substitute products, the consumption of red dates was affected. Short - term trading was recommended [19].

Report Investment Rating No investment rating for the industry is provided in the report. Core Viewpoints - Crude oil's short - term core factor is geopolitics, with a pessimistic view on the cease - fire in the Russia - Ukraine conflict and an expectation of risk escalation in the Caribbean region. Aromatics (PX, PTA, BZ, EB) and methanol are short - term long - core varieties in the chemical industry [2][4]. - The supply - demand and macro drivers of crude oil are weak in the short term, but geopolitical factors may be the main driver in December. There are short - term long opportunities and mid - term short opportunities after a pulse - type upward movement [4]. Summary by Category Crude Oil - Logic: Supply - demand and macro drivers are weak. Short - term US high - frequency data is strong, and before a large - scale inventory build - up, the oversupply trading is difficult to restart. Geopolitical factors are the main driver in December, with a short - term long view and mid - term short opportunities after a pulse - type upward movement [3][4]. - Technical Analysis: The daily - level shows a mid - term downward structure, and the hourly - level is in short - term oscillation. The strategy is to wait and see in the hourly cycle [4]. Styrene - Logic: There is an unexpected inventory build - up during the seasonal de - stocking period, and there are still concerns about over - inventory. There are short - term fundamental contradictions and large mid - term differences. It is necessary to pay attention to the continuation of the gasoline - blending logic and future imports. Be cautious about the pulse - type upward movement of crude oil due to potential geopolitical escalation [7]. - Technical Analysis: The hourly - level is in short - term oscillation, and the structure is unclear. The strategy is to wait and see in the hourly and 15 - minute cycles after the stop - loss of long positions [8][9]. Rubber - Logic: There are no short - term contradictions. Tire demand has no significant increase, and the supply side is in the peak tapping season in Southeast Asia. The inventory in Qingdao is seasonally increasing. The market should be treated with an oscillation view [10]. - Technical Analysis: The daily - level shows a mid - term downward structure, and the hourly - level is in short - term oscillation. The strategy is to wait and see in the hourly cycle [10]. Synthetic Rubber - Logic: It is traded around butadiene. The butadiene inventory has reached a five - year high in the past two weeks, and the price is under pressure. Although the fundamental driver is downward, the low valuation lacks short - selling space. Be cautious about the pulse - type upward movement of crude oil due to potential geopolitical escalation [14]. - Technical Analysis: The daily - level shows a mid - term downward structure, and the hourly - level is in short - term oscillation. The strategy is to wait and see in the hourly cycle [14]. PX - Logic: The supply - demand is neutral to positive, but the current fundamentals cannot support an upward drive. The main trading logic is the expected market. Since November, the US aromatic gasoline - blending logic has led to a valuation repair. After the weakening of the gasoline - blending expectation last week, the cost - side crude oil and strong fundamentals in the chemical industry are likely to attract long - position funds. The long - position view is maintained [18]. - Technical Analysis: The hourly - level shows a short - term upward structure. The strategy is to hold long positions in the hourly level, with a stop - loss reference of 6700 [18]. PTA - Logic: The polyester has little pressure, but the current fundamentals cannot support an upward drive. The main trading logic is the expected market. Since November, the US aromatic gasoline - blending logic has led to a valuation repair. After the weakening of the gasoline - blending expectation last week, the cost - side crude oil and strong fundamentals in the chemical industry are likely to attract long - position funds. The long - position view is maintained [20]. - Technical Analysis: The hourly - level shows a short - term upward structure. The strategy is to hold long positions in the hourly level, with a stop - loss reference of 4620 [20]. PP - Logic: It still faces the pressure of olefin capacity to be put into production, with high supply pressure and weak downstream demand. The supply - demand drive is negative, and attention should be paid to the cost - side crude oil drive [23]. - Technical Analysis: The hourly - level is in short - term oscillation. The strategy is to wait and see in the hourly cycle [23]. Methanol - Logic: The over - expected maintenance in Iran has led to the shutdown of multiple methanol plants. With the temperature dropping in December, a full - scale shutdown is likely. After the market over - traded the expectation of insufficient gas restrictions, the market has room for upward correction. The port de - stocking rate is accelerating. The withdrawal of crowded short positions on the previous trading board brings a large upward space [24]. - Technical Analysis: The daily - level shows a mid - term downward structure and short - term oscillation. After testing the support without breaking it, the upward structure continues. The strategy is to hold long positions in the hourly cycle, with a stop - profit reference of 2100 [25][27]. PVC - Logic: High supply and high inventory continue. With the collapse of domestic real - estate demand, there is no hope for demand. The social inventory is still increasing, and there is no upward drive [28]. - Technical Analysis: The daily - level shows a mid - term downward structure, and the hourly - level is in short - term oscillation. The technical structure is unclear. The strategy is to wait and see in the hourly cycle [28]. Ethylene Glycol - Logic: Multiple MEG plants in Iran are under maintenance, but the domestic supply remains high with the resumption of maintenance and new capacity addition. Inventory build - up continues. Be vigilant about short - term geopolitical risks in crude oil [32]. - Technical Analysis: The daily - level shows a mid - term downward structure, and the hourly - level is in a downward structure. The upper short - term pressure is at 3920. The strategy is to wait and see in the single - side hourly cycle [32]. Plastic - Logic: The downstream demand recovers slowly, and the supply pressure from the upstream olefin capacity addition remains. The supply - demand is still weak. Be vigilant about short - term geopolitical risks in crude oil [33]. - Technical Analysis: The daily - level shows a mid - term downward structure, and the hourly - level is in a downward structure. The upper short - term pressure is at 6825. The strategy is to wait and see in the hourly cycle [33]. Soda Ash - Logic: The high - supply and high - inventory pattern continues, and the production cut in the downstream glass production line suppresses the demand for soda ash. Although the fundamental downward drive remains, the cost - performance of holding short positions unilaterally decreases [36]. - Technical Analysis: The hourly - level is in a downward structure. After a reduction in positions and a decline, the downward structure remains unchanged. The upper short - term pressure is at 1195. The remaining short positions in the hourly cycle should be held cautiously with a stop - profit at 1195 [36]. Caustic Soda - Logic: New capacity is put into production, and most plants have resumed operation after maintenance, resulting in high supply pressure. The alumina industry's losses are expanding, and the demand for caustic soda remains weak. There is no upward drive in supply - demand [39]. - Technical Analysis: The hourly - level is in a downward structure. After an increase in positions and a decline, the downward structure remains unchanged. The upper short - term pressure is at 2220. The strategy is to wait and see in the hourly cycle [39].

Report Industry Investment Rating The report does not provide an overall industry investment rating. Core Viewpoints - Crude oil's geopolitical situation may lead to price increases. A pessimistic view on the cease - fire between Russia and Ukraine, and an expected risk escalation in the Caribbean region could drive prices up. Chemicals, especially aromatics and methanol, are favored for long - positions. Other products have different trading outlooks based on their fundamentals and technical analysis [1][3]. Summary by Directory (1) Crude Oil - **Logic**: Supply - demand and macro drivers are weak in the short - term. Geopolitical factors are likely to be the main driver in December. A short - term bullish view but difficult to trade, and a mid - term shorting opportunity after a pulse - like upward movement is expected [3]. - **Technical Analysis**: Daily - level shows a mid - term downward structure, and hourly - level is short - term oscillating. An intraday oscillation, with a break below 450 indicating a shift from an uptrend to oscillation. A strategy of hourly - cycle observation is recommended [3]. (2) Styrene (EB) - **Logic**: Seasonal de - stocking is unexpectedly replaced by inventory accumulation, with a risk of over - stocking. There are short - term fundamental contradictions, and mid - term differences are significant. Attention should be paid to the continuation of the gasoline - blending logic and future imports. Be cautious of potential geopolitical - driven upward pulses in crude oil [6]. - **Technical Analysis**: Hourly - level shows short - term oscillation, with an unclear structure. The 15 - minute level shows an upward structure, with a signal of a callback end and a counter - package at the end of the session. A strategy of hourly - cycle observation and a trial long - position on the 15 - minute level with a stop - loss at 6550 is recommended [8]. (3) Rubber - **Logic**: There are no short - term contradictions. Tire demand has limited growth potential, and supply - side factors show a normal seasonal inventory accumulation in Qingdao during the Southeast Asian rubber - tapping season. An oscillating view is taken [9]. - **Technical Analysis**: Daily - level shows a mid - term downward structure, and hourly - level shows short - term oscillation. An intraday decline on reduced positions, with an unclear hourly - level structure. A strategy of hourly - cycle observation is recommended [10][12]. (4) Synthetic Rubber - **Logic**: It is mainly traded based on butadiene. Butadiene inventory has reached a 5 - year high in recent weeks, putting pressure on prices. Although the fundamental driver is downward, the low valuation limits short - selling space. Be cautious of potential geopolitical - driven upward pulses in crude oil. An oscillating and observing approach is recommended [13]. - **Technical Analysis**: Daily - level shows a mid - term downward structure, and hourly - level shows short - term oscillation. An intraday decline on reduced positions, maintaining an oscillating structure. A strategy of hourly - cycle observation is recommended [15]. (5) PX - **Logic**: Its supply - demand is moderately bullish, but the current fundamentals cannot support an upward drive. The main trading logic is based on expectations. Since November, the US aromatic gasoline - blending logic has led to a valuation repair. After the weakening of the gasoline - blending expectation last week, the cost of crude oil and relatively strong chemical fundamentals may attract more long - positions. A long - position view is maintained [17][19]. - **Technical Analysis**: Hourly - level shows a short - term upward structure, with an intraday oscillation but the upward structure remaining unchanged. The hourly - level support is at 6700. A strategy of holding long - positions on the hourly - level with a stop - loss at 6700 is recommended [19]. (6) PTA - **Logic**: Similar to PX, polyester has relatively low pressure, but the current fundamentals cannot support an upward drive. The main trading logic is based on expectations. Since November, the US aromatic gasoline - blending logic has led to a valuation repair. After the weakening of the gasoline - blending expectation last week, the cost of crude oil and relatively strong chemical fundamentals may attract more long - positions. A long - position view is maintained [20]. - **Technical Analysis**: Hourly - level shows a short - term upward structure, with an intraday oscillation but the upward structure remaining unchanged. The hourly - level support is at 4620. A strategy of holding long - positions on the hourly - level with a stop - loss at 4620 is recommended [20]. (7) PP - **Logic**: It still faces the pressure of upcoming olefin capacity expansion, with high supply and weak downstream demand. The supply - demand drive is bearish, and attention should be paid to the cost - side drive from crude oil [23]. - **Technical Analysis**: Hourly - level shows a short - term oscillating structure, with an intraday oscillation. A strategy of hourly - cycle observation is recommended [23]. (8) Methanol - **Logic**: Iranian methanol plant outages are more than expected. With the start of winter gas restrictions, a full - scale shutdown is likely in December. After the market over - reacted to the less - than - expected gas restrictions, the price has room for upward correction. High shipping volumes and high inventories have already been priced in, and the port de - stocking rate is accelerating. There is a large upward space as short - positions are unwound [24][26]. - **Technical Analysis**: Daily - level shows a mid - term downward structure, and hourly - level shows a short - term upward structure. An intraday oscillation, with the upward structure continuing. The short - term support is at 2100. A strategy of holding long - positions on the hourly - level with a stop - loss at 2100 is recommended [26]. (9) PVC - **Logic**: High supply and high inventory continue. With the collapse of domestic real - estate demand, there is no hope for demand improvement. Social inventory is at a high level and still increasing, with no upward drive [27]. - **Technical Analysis**: Daily - level shows a mid - term downward structure, and hourly - level shows a short - term oscillating structure. An intraday oscillation, with an unclear short - term technical structure. A strategy of hourly - cycle observation is recommended [27]. (10) Ethylene Glycol (EG) - **Logic**: Multiple MEG plants in Iran are under maintenance, but domestic supply remains high with the resumption of maintenance and new capacity expansion, leading to continued inventory accumulation. Be cautious of short - term geopolitical risks in crude oil [30]. - **Technical Analysis**: Daily - level shows a mid - term downward structure, and hourly - level shows a downward structure. An intraday decline on increased positions, with the short - term pressure at 3920. A strategy of hourly - cycle observation is recommended [30]. (11) Plastic - **Logic**: Downstream demand recovery is slow, and the supply pressure from upstream olefin capacity expansion remains. The supply - demand situation is weak and has not improved. Be cautious of short - term geopolitical risks in crude oil [32]. - **Technical Analysis**: Daily - level shows a mid - term downward structure, and hourly - level shows a downward structure. An intraday oscillation, with the short - term pressure at 6825. A strategy of hourly - cycle observation is recommended [32]. (12) Soda Ash - **Logic**: The high - supply and high - inventory situation continues, and the reduction of downstream glass production lines suppresses demand. Although the downward fundamental drive remains, the cost - effectiveness of holding short - positions is reduced [33]. - **Technical Analysis**: Hourly - level shows a downward structure. An intraday decline on reduced positions, with the downward structure unchanged. The short - term pressure is at 1195. A strategy of cautiously holding remaining short - positions on the hourly - level with a stop - profit at 1195 is recommended [33]. (13) Caustic Soda - **Logic**: New capacity has been put into operation, and most plants have resumed production after maintenance, resulting in high supply. The alumina industry's losses are expanding, and demand for caustic soda remains weak. There is no upward drive in the supply - demand situation [36]. - **Technical Analysis**: Hourly - level shows a downward structure. An intraday decline on increased positions, with the downward structure unchanged. The short - term pressure is at 2220. A strategy of hourly - cycle observation is recommended [36].

多晶硅、碳酸锂、工业硅日报 （一）多晶硅 市场走势：今日多晶硅期货偏强运行，主力 2601 合约较上一交 易日收盘价下跌 1.98%，报 57430 元/吨。 核心逻辑：11 月底多晶硅仓单集中注销后，仓单量大幅减少。 当前主要交易逻辑集中在市场上符合要求的可交割资源偏紧，资金面 扰动较大。从过去交易所介入后对行情的影响来看，本次交易所限仓 提保对盘面的影响相对较小，今日延续偏强运行。若交割规则问题不 解决，叠加新仓单数量不多的格局延续，谨慎防范 2601 合约复刻 2512 合约 11 月底的走势。基本面来看，多晶硅现货价格持稳，延续累库 格局，全产业链需求整体疲弱，下游硅片及电池片价格均有一定程度 下调。 技术面分析：今日多晶硅期货整体持仓量小幅增加，仍是多头控 盘。日内 9：05 有"首 K 突破法"叠加成交量大放量的上行介入机会， 给到了 1：2 盈亏比。目前多晶硅主力 2601 合约 5 分钟级别周期为红 线红带红阶梯，隔夜 2 小时级别周期仍是红色阶梯线偏强，仍在震荡 区间上沿，关注是否能突破震荡区间，多空分水位 55235 元/吨。 策略建议：本次交易所限仓提保对多晶硅盘面影响较小，仍维持 偏强 ...

鸡蛋下挫、白糖续跌 2.鸡蛋主力 2601 合约大幅下挫，在均线之下扩跌，MACD 死叉后 绿柱扩大，技术偏弱。策略上轻仓抛空。 （二）白糖：持续下跌 焦点关注：郑糖主力 2601 合约持续下跌，受到新糖上市的供应 压力： 1.国内广西、云南甘蔗开榨进度持续推进，广西已有超过 40 家 糖厂开榨，云南开榨糖厂超过 10 家。进入 12 月后，广西和云南将迎 来开榨高峰。新糖不断上市，现货价格回落。现货市场整体购销氛围 偏淡，榨季开启后新糖季节性供应压力增大。 2.白糖主力 2601 合约跌破均线系统，各均线转向空头排列，技 术弱势，策略上逢高轻仓空单，2601 合约阻力位 5381。 一、农产品板块综述 周三鸡蛋当月合约大幅下跌，蛋鸡存栏高企，供应压力较大，需 求一般，鸡蛋期价承压下挫，后市偏弱运行。白糖持续走低，南方糖 厂甘蔗压榨持续推进，白糖季节性供应压力增大，期价破位下行，走 势偏弱。棕油震荡有升，产区产量下降支撑行情，关注 12 月马棕油 官方供需报告数据，近期棕油偏强运行。 二、品种策略跟踪 （一）鸡蛋：大幅下挫 焦点关注：鸡蛋近月 2601 合约大幅下挫，受到产能高企的压力： 1. 蛋鸡存栏量仍处 ...

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The short - term core of crude oil is geopolitics. For crude oil, the geopolitical logic is pessimistic about the ceasefire between Russia and Ukraine, and there is an upward - revision risk if the negotiation fails again. The risk in the Caribbean region is expected to escalate, with a potential pulse - like upward movement. In the chemical industry, aromatics and methanol are the core varieties for long positions. Aromatics are mainly in an expected - based market, and methanol has upward - correction space due to unexpected Iranian over - maintenance [1]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Crude Oil - **Logic**: Supply - demand and macro drivers are still weak, but short - term US high - frequency data is strong, and the inventory is low, so the oversupply trading is difficult to restart before significant inventory accumulation. There is a 80 - basis - point spread between the US real interest rate and the natural interest rate, and three 25 - basis - point interest rate cuts are highly likely. Geopolitical disturbances are increasing and may be the main driver in December. Short - term view is bullish, and mid - term, there are high - selling opportunities after a pulse - like upward movement [2][3]. - **Technical Analysis**: The daily - level shows a mid - term downward structure, and the hourly - level shows a short - term upward structure, but it should be seen as a wide - range oscillation. Today, it increased in price with increased positions, and the short - term support is at the 450 level. The short - term technical view is bullish, but it is recommended to wait and see in the hourly cycle [3]. Styrene - **Logic**: There is an unexpected inventory increase during the seasonal de - stocking period, and the inventory - swelling expectation still exists. Domestic refineries have strong maintenance expectations in the far - month, and South Korean device profits are low. The import in January is expected to be large. There are short - term fundamental contradictions but not significantly manifested, and there are large mid - term differences. It is necessary to pay attention to whether the oil - blending logic can continue and the import situation in the next two months. Be cautious about the potential pulse - like upward disturbance of crude oil due to geopolitical escalation [6]. - **Technical Analysis**: The hourly - level is in a short - term oscillation. Today, it increased in price with decreased positions, and the hourly - level structure is unclear, but there is an upward structure at the 15 - minute level. It is recommended to wait and see at the hourly - level and hold long positions at the 15 - minute level, with a take - profit reference at the 6510 level [6]. Rubber - **Logic**: There are no short - term contradictions. Tire demand is difficult to increase significantly, and it is hard to see a large - scale trend in the demand side. The supply side is in the peak tapping season in Southeast Asia, and the inventory in Qingdao is seasonally increasing, but the inventory - increasing rate is normal. The fundamental situation shows no upward or downward drivers, and it should be treated with an oscillation view [9]. - **Technical Analysis**: The daily - level shows a mid - term downward structure, and the hourly - level shows a short - term oscillation structure. Today, it decreased in price with decreased positions, and the hourly - level structure is unclear. It is recommended to wait and see in the hourly cycle [9]. Synthetic Rubber - **Logic**: Synthetic rubber is mainly driven by butadiene. The butadiene inventory has reached a 5 - year high in the past two weeks, and the price pressure of butadiene is large under the inventory - swelling expectation, so synthetic rubber has a downward - driving force around the cost side. Be cautious about the potential pulse - like upward disturbance of crude oil due to geopolitical escalation. Although the fundamental driver is downward, the valuation is low, so it is recommended to wait and see with an oscillation view [13]. - **Technical Analysis**: The daily - level shows a mid - term downward structure, and the hourly - level short - term oscillation structure is being tested. Today, it decreased in price with decreased positions, and the short - term downward structure has evolved into an oscillation. It is recommended to wait and see in the hourly cycle [13]. PX - **Logic**: The supply - demand of PX is neutral - bullish, but the current fundamental situation cannot support the upward drive. The main trading logic is the expected - based market. The US aromatics oil - blending logic has led to valuation repair since November. After the weakening of the oil - blending expectation last week, the cost - side crude oil and the relatively strong chemical fundamentals are likely to attract more chemical long - position funds. The market should maintain a bullish view [17]. - **Technical Analysis**: The hourly - level shows a short - term upward structure. Today, it increased in price with decreased positions, and the upward structure remains unchanged. The hourly - level standard support is at the 6700 level. It is recommended to hold long positions at the hourly - level, with a stop - loss reference at the 6700 level [17]. PTA - **Logic**: The polyester itself has little pressure, but the current fundamental situation cannot support the upward drive. The main trading logic is the expected - based market. The US aromatics oil - blending logic has led to valuation repair since November. After the weakening of the oil - blending expectation last week, the cost - side crude oil and the relatively strong chemical fundamentals are likely to attract more chemical long - position funds. The market should maintain a bullish view [20]. - **Technical Analysis**: The hourly - level shows a short - term upward structure. Today, it increased in price with increased positions, and the upward structure remains unchanged. The hourly - level support is at the 4620 level. It is recommended to hold long positions at the hourly - level, with a stop - loss reference at the 4620 level [20]. PP - **Logic**: PP still faces the pressure of olefin production capacity to be put into operation, with high - supply pressure continuing and weak downstream demand. The supply - demand drive is bearish, and attention should be paid to the cost - side crude oil drive [24]. - **Technical Analysis**: The hourly - level short - term downward structure may end. Today, it increased in price with decreased positions and broke through the short - term pressure at the 6400 level. The short - term downward trend may end. It is recommended to wait and see in the hourly cycle [24]. Methanol - **Logic**: Iranian maintenance is more than expected, and many methanol plants have shut down since last week. With the official start of winter gas restrictions and the accelerating cold in December, a full shutdown is highly likely. After the market over - traded the expectation of insufficient gas restrictions, the market has upward - correction space. High shipments and high inventories have been priced in, the port de - stocking rate is accelerating, the market may anticipate the low - shipment point after the full shutdown, and the withdrawal of crowded short positions on the previous market brings a large upward space [26]. - **Technical Analysis**: The daily - level shows a mid - term downward and short - term upward structure. Today, it increased in price with decreased positions, and the upward structure continues. The short - term support is at the 2100 level. It is recommended to hold long positions in the hourly cycle, with a take - profit reference at the 2100 level [27][29]. PVC - **Logic**: High supply and high inventory continue. With the collapse of domestic real - estate demand, there is no hope for demand improvement. The social inventory at a high level continues to increase, and there is no upward drive [31]. - **Technical Analysis**: The daily - level shows a mid - term downward structure, and the hourly - level short - term downward structure is being tested. Today, it oscillated within the day, and the short - term structure is facing a trend reversal. It is recommended to wait and see in the hourly cycle [31]. Ethylene Glycol - **Logic**: Many overseas Iranian MEG plants are under maintenance, but the domestic supply remains high with the resumption of maintenance and the addition of new production capacity. Inventory accumulation continues, and attention should be paid to the short - term geopolitical risk disturbance of crude oil [35]. - **Technical Analysis**: The daily - level shows a mid - term downward structure, and the hourly - level shows a downward structure. Today, it oscillated within the day, and the short - term pressure is at the 3920 level. It is recommended to wait and see in the single - side hourly cycle [35]. Plastic - **Logic**: The downstream demand recovers slowly, and the supply pressure from the upstream olefin production capacity put - into operation remains. The supply - demand situation is still weak and has not improved. Attention should be paid to the short - term geopolitical risk disturbance of crude oil [36]. - **Technical Analysis**: The daily - level shows a mid - term downward structure, and the hourly - level shows a downward structure. Today, it oscillated within the day, and the short - term pressure is at the 6825 level. It is recommended to wait and see in the hourly cycle [36]. Soda Ash - **Logic**: The high - supply and high - inventory pattern of soda ash continues, and the downstream glass production lines are reducing production, which suppresses the demand for soda ash. Although the fundamental downward drive remains, the cost - performance of holding short positions unilaterally is reduced [38]. - **Technical Analysis**: The hourly - level shows a downward structure. Today, it oscillated within the day, and the downward structure remains unchanged. The short - term pressure is at the 1195 level. It is recommended to hold the remaining short positions in the hourly cycle cautiously with a take - profit at the 1195 level [38]. Caustic Soda - **Logic**: With the new production capacity put into operation and the end of most plant maintenance, the high - supply pressure continues. The alumina industry's losses are expanding, and its production is decreasing, so the demand for caustic soda remains weak. There is no upward drive in the supply - demand situation [42]. - **Technical Analysis**: The hourly - level shows a downward structure. Today, it oscillated within the day, and the downward structure remains unchanged. The short - term pressure is at the 2260 level. It is recommended to wait and see in the hourly cycle [42].

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Report's Core Views - The main trading logic for polysilicon is the shortage of deliverable resources and significant capital - side disturbances. The spot price is stable, with inventory accumulation and weak overall demand in the entire industry chain [1]. - For lithium carbonate, short - term downstream lithium - battery demand remains high, with a decline in weekly production and a continuous de - stocking trend. The long - term demand is expected to be good, and the price is likely to rise. The near - month contracts are suppressed by seasonal demand weakness [3]. - Industrial silicon has a situation of weak supply and demand, high inventory, and balanced monthly supply and demand. The market is mainly affected by sentiment, and the price fluctuation may be limited [11]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Polysilicon - **Market Trend**: The polysilicon futures opened higher and rose rapidly in the morning, hitting a new high for the year. The main 2601 contract closed at 57705 yuan/ton, up 2.27% from the previous trading day [1]. - **Core Logic**: After the concentrated cancellation of polysilicon warehouse receipts at the end of November, the quantity of warehouse receipts decreased significantly. The current trading logic focuses on the shortage of deliverable resources and large capital - side disturbances. The spot price is stable, with inventory accumulation and weak demand in the industry chain [1]. - **Technical Analysis**: The overall position of polysilicon futures increased, and it is still controlled by bulls. There was an intervention opportunity at 9:05 according to the "First K Breakthrough Method" with volume increase. The 5 - minute cycle is a red line, green belt, and green ladder, and the 2 - hour cycle is a strong red ladder line. The multi - empty dividing water level is 53315 yuan/ton [1]. - **Strategy Suggestion**: Since it is at the upper edge of the oscillation range and the 2601 contract hit a new high for the year, it is recommended to wait and see. You can refer to the Band Winner indicator during the 8:30 morning live broadcast [2]. Lithium Carbonate - **Market Trend**: The lithium carbonate futures opened higher and then fell back. The 2605 contract closed at 96940 yuan/ton, up 0.54% from the previous trading day [3]. - **Core Logic**: In the short term, downstream lithium - battery demand remains high, production decreased this week, and inventory continued to decline. The long - term demand is expected to be good, and the price is likely to rise. The near - month contracts are suppressed by seasonal demand weakness, resulting in a structure of lower near - term prices and higher far - term prices [3]. - **Technical Analysis**: The overall position of lithium carbonate futures changed little. The 5 - minute cycle is a red line, blue belt, and red ladder, still in the oscillation range. The 2 - hour cycle is a strong red ladder line. The multi - empty dividing water level is 92040 yuan/ton [7]. - **Strategy Suggestion**: Under the background of "strong reality and strong expectation", it is recommended to go long on dips. You can refer to the Band Winner indicator during the 8:30 morning live broadcast [7]. Industrial Silicon - **Market Trend**: The industrial silicon futures fluctuated in a narrow range. The main 2601 contract closed at 9145 yuan/ton, up 0.16% from the previous trading day [11]. - **Core Logic**: The supply and demand of industrial silicon are both weak, and the inventory is high. The monthly supply and demand are generally balanced, and the market is mainly affected by sentiment. The price fluctuation may be limited. Attention should be paid to the possible expansion of production cuts during the dry season in Yunnan in December and the impact of downstream enterprise policies on demand [11]. - **Technical Analysis**: The overall position of industrial silicon futures decreased significantly. The 5 - minute cycle has changed to a red line, blue belt, and green ladder, and the 2 - hour cycle is a strong red ladder line. The multi - empty dividing water level is 8940 yuan/ton [11]. - **Strategy Suggestion**: Since it is mainly affected by policies and news, it is recommended to wait and see and pay attention to periodic sentiment disturbances. You can refer to the Band Winner indicator during the 8:30 morning live broadcast [11].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided 2. Core View of the Report - The egg near - month contract has fallen sharply, the cotton has continued to rise, and the palm oil has continued to rise. The soybean meal has oscillated and adjusted, the peanut has adjusted at a high level, the pig has fluctuated weakly, the jujube has run weakly at a low level, the sugar has rebounded after a decline, and the apple has run strongly [1] 3. Summary by Variety Eggs - The egg主力 2601 contract has fallen sharply due to high production capacity. The egg - laying hen inventory is high, with about 1.352 billion in - production egg - laying hens in November. The futures price has fallen after a high - level rebound. The strategy is to close long positions and go short lightly on rallies, with a resistance level of 3220 for the egg 2601 contract [2] Cotton - The cotton主力 2601 contract has continued to rise supported by strong demand. As of November 27, the national new cotton delivery rate is 98.5% (up 1 percentage point year - on - year), and the sales rate is 33.2% (up 18.9 percentage points year - on - year). The strategy is to go long on dips [3] Soybean Meal - The soybean meal主力 2601 contract has oscillated and declined slightly. High inventory restricts the rebound space, but rising import costs support the price. The strategy is short - term trading [5] Peanuts - The peanut主力 2601 contract has adjusted at a high level for technical correction. High - quality peanuts in the Northeast and low farmer selling sentiment support the price. The strategy is to hold long positions [8] Pigs - The pig主力 2601 contract has fluctuated weakly. High inventory and large planned slaughter in November lead to abundant supply. The strategy is short - term trading [9][11] Palm Oil - The Dalian palm oil主力 2601 contract has continued to rise. Floods in Southeast Asia and the seasonal production - reduction season support the price. The strategy is to go long lightly [12] Jujubes - The jujube主力 2601 contract has run weakly at a low level. The supply is abundant with high inventory. The strategy is short - term trading [14] Sugar - The Zhengzhou sugar主力 2601 contract has rebounded after a decline. Increased supply from new sugar mills is offset by high production costs and expected better consumption. The strategy is short - term long - biased trading [16] Apples - The apple主力 2601 contract has run strongly. Low inventory and expected better demand during holidays support the price. The strategy is to hold long positions [20]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core View of the Report The agricultural products sector mostly declined on Friday. Palm oil continued to fall, and its future price is expected to be weak. Red dates hit a new low, and there is room for further decline. Live pigs and eggs are still in a downward trend, and there is pressure for continued decline. Other varieties such as peanuts, sugar, and soybeans also showed different degrees of decline, while apples maintained a high - level narrow - range fluctuation, and cotton had a limited rebound [1]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs 3.1 Agricultural Products Sector Overview - Most agricultural products in the sector declined on Friday. Palm oil was pressured by rising inventory expectations, red dates faced supply pressure, and live pigs and eggs had high inventories and weak demand [1]. 3.2 Variety Strategy Tracking 3.2.1 Palm Oil - Dalian palm oil and soybean oil main 2601 contracts continued to fall. In November, Malaysian palm oil exports decreased while production increased, and the US bio - fuel plan might bring a negative impact. The main contract broke through the lower limit of the previous sideways range, and the strategy is to short with a light position [2]. 3.2.2 Red Dates - The main 2601 contract of red dates fell sharply to a new low. New jujube listing and high inventory of old jujubes led to large supply pressure, and the contract broke through the support level. The strategy is to short with a light position [3]. 3.2.3 Eggs - The main 2601 contract of eggs fell back into a downward trend. High egg - laying hen inventory, slow capacity reduction, and weak demand led to increased inventory. The strategy is to short with a light position [5]. 3.2.4 Peanuts - The main 2601 contract of peanuts rose first and then fell. The supply is expected to increase after the busy farming season, and the demand is weak. The contract is in a weak state, and the strategy is to short with a light position [8]. 3.2.5 Sugar - The main 2601 contract of Zhengzhou sugar continued to fall to a new low. Global sugar supply is loose, and domestic sugar imports are high. The new sugar listing increased supply, and the strategy is to short with a light position [9][11]. 3.2.6 Live Pigs - The main 2601 contract of live pigs continued to decline. High supply and weak demand led to price pressure. The contract is in a downward trend, and the strategy is to hold short positions with a light position [12][16]. 3.2.7 Soybean Meal - The main 2601 contract of soybean meal expanded its decline. High inventory of soybean meal due to sufficient soybean imports and high - pressure oil - mill operation led to price decline. The strategy is to short with a light position [18]. 3.2.8 Apples - The main 2601 contract of apples fluctuated narrowly at a high level. Apple inventory is at a relatively low level in recent years, and the demand from foreign trade channels is good. The contract is in an upward trend, and the strategy is to hold long positions [19]. 3.2.9 Cotton - The main 2601 contract of cotton fluctuated narrowly with limited rebound. Cotton supply pressure is increasing, and the textile industry is in a off - season. The contract is restricted by the medium - term moving average, and the strategy is short - term trading [22].