短线多空交织原油再度反弹 摘要: 短线看昨晚多空交织,哈萨克斯坦公开表示 5月没有减产计划, 此前减产补偿落地可能性继续降低,但盘面未反应利空而是在美国财 政部又一次发布对伊朗的新制裁后延续反弹,近期短线利多始终围绕 有关伊朗方面。但目前仍是反弹而非反转看待。 原油中期三大驱动:供需、宏观、地缘目前均未看到反转,仍偏 空看待。短期看，五一假期内 OPEC+在 5 月会议上确认 6 月加速增产 41.1 万桶/日,与五月增产幅度保持一致,此前 220 万桶/日的减产 补偿计划额度回补大半,究其原因还是哈萨克斯坦、伊拉克等国对减 产配额的阳奉阴违,使沙特有意再度通过加速增产表达不满,沙特表 达出新一轮价格战倾向。OPEC+连续加速增产后,原油市场供应过剩 预期进一步加剧,原油中长期的下行压力增大。但除了供需驱动外, 地缘方面可能是潜在的短期变数:五一期间美伊第三轮谈判推迟,美 对伊朗再度发起新一轮制裁,以及胡塞袭击以色列机场后以表态伊朗 为幕后帮手,使伊朗方面的地缘驱动变动成为潜在可能的"短线突发 驱动"。考虑到原油阶梯式的盘面走法,落地到交易策略上,节前空 单可把止盈进一步下移至今日高点,如止盈后再等反弹逢高空 ...

白糖、豆一大跌 一、农产品板块综述 白糖跳空下行，受到外盘下跌拖累，因巴西甘蔗收获增大，供应 充足，国内配额外白糖进口利润窗口打开，后续进口到港压力可能增 大，糖价承压下挫。豆一逆转大跌，因国产大豆下游豆制品消费进入 淡季，且进口大豆到港集中，豆一替代需求受限，期价承压下挫。棉 花震荡有升，受到棉纱期价劲升带动，市场关注中美高级官员即将会 晤，经贸谈判或有进展，提振市场情绪。生猪下挫，猪企出栏计划增 加，下游需求偏弱压制猪价走低。 二、品种策略跟踪 （一）白糖：大幅下跌 焦点关注：白糖主力 2509 合约跳空下行，大幅下跌，受到外盘 下跌的拖累： 1. 海外市场巴西中南部新榨季开局强劲，甘蔗供应充足，产量 有增产预期，强化了市场供应宽松预期，ICE 原糖期价持续下跌，带 动郑糖挫跌。同时国内配额外进口利润窗口打开，后续到港压力或增 大。现货端成交偏淡，终端表现不温不火，采购积极性欠佳，国内制 糖集团报价持续下调。 2. 郑糖主力 2509 合约跳空大跌，期价下行远离各均线，MACD 绿 柱哭到，技术偏弱，策略上轻仓空单，白糖主力 2509 合约支撑 5800， 阻力 5849。 （二）豆一：逆转大跌，走势反转 ...

棕榈油继续下跌,产地增产顺利,库存有增加预期,国内进口买 船增加且成本下降,叠加下游需求偏弱施压棕油期价扩大跌幅。棉花 反弹,中美高级官员即将在瑞士会晤的消息提振市场情绪,市场憧憬 中美就关税问题达成协议,或有助于纺织品出口,推动郑棉反弹,但 是棉花下游需求偏弱,反弹幅度或受限。豆粕窄幅波动,进口大豆到 港,市场预期油厂开机率上升,豆粕供应将增加,期价后市或有续跌 压力。 棕油续跌、棉花反弹 一、农产品板块综述 二、品种策略跟踪 (一) 棕榈油:扩大跌幅 焦点关注:棕榈油主力 2509 合约持续扩大跌幅,产地供强需弱 施压盘面: 1.棕榈油产地增产扩大,高频数据显示,4月马棕油产量增加17% ―25%，而出口仅增加 3%―5%，产量增幅大于出口增幅，且预计５ 月初马棕榈油产量增幅达到60%。产量大增或令 4月马棕榈油库存继 续上升。给市场带来偏空影响。 2.国内棕榈油市场因产地报价走弱刺激近期买船陆续增加,供应 有望回升,豆棕价差倒挂抑制棕榈油需求。 大连棕榈油主力 2509 合约继续在均线系统下扩大跌幅,MACD 死 叉后绿柱扩大,技术弱势,策略上轻仓空单,棕榈油主力2509 合约 支撑 7850, 阻力 ...

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core View of the Report - Crude oil's three major medium - term drivers (supply - demand, macro, and geopolitics) remain bearish, with no sign of reversal. OPEC+ accelerating production increases exacerbates the supply - surplus expectation and increases the medium - and long - term downward pressure on crude oil. Geopolitical factors related to Iran may be a potential short - term variable. For trading strategies, pre - holiday short positions can lower the stop - profit to the high of the day, and after stop - profit, wait for a rebound to go short instead of chasing the short [1]. Summary by Related Catalogs Overall Sector - Crude oil has increased positions and retraced to the previous low. Most energy and chemical products have followed the trend in the past two days. Urea and caustic soda, which have relatively independent trends today, have a short - term bullish structure, while rubber is still seen as a rebound [3]. Crude Oil - **Weekly Fundamental View**: OPEC+ accelerating production increases exacerbates the supply - surplus pressure, which becomes the main medium - term downward driver. Pay attention to whether there are changes in Iranian geopolitical factors in the short term [5]. - **Daily Technical Analysis**: Crude oil has a medium - term downward structure on the daily level and a short - term downward structure on the hourly level. It increased positions and reached a new low today, continuing the downward path, with the upper pressure reference at the 480 level. Pre - holiday remaining short positions can still be held, and the stop - profit can be lowered to the high of the day [5]. Other Energy and Chemical Products Styrene - **Weekly Fundamental View**: It has recently followed the cost - end crude oil fluctuations. - **Daily Technical Analysis**: It has a short - term downward structure on the hourly level. It decreased positions and declined today, continuing the downward path on the hourly cycle. The pressure reference is the high on April 29. Pre - holiday short positions can lower the stop - profit to the high on April 29 [9]. PX - **Weekly Fundamental View**: It has recently followed the cost - end crude oil fluctuations. - **Daily Technical Analysis**: It has a short - term downward structure on the hourly level. It decreased positions and declined with crude oil today. There is no signal on the hourly level, and it turned bearish first on the 15 - minute level. The 15 - minute pressure reference is the high on April 30. The strategy is to go short when it fails to break through the pressure on the hourly cycle [10]. PTA - **Weekly Fundamental View**: It has recently followed the cost - end crude oil fluctuations. - **Daily Technical Analysis**: It has a short - term downward structure on the hourly level. Technically, it increased positions and declined today, breaking below the support of the low on the night of April 25. The hourly cycle turned bearish again. The new pressure level to focus on is the high on April 30. The strategy is to go short when it fails to break through the pressure [13]. PP - **Weekly Fundamental View**: It has recently followed the cost - end crude oil fluctuations. - **Daily Technical Analysis**: It has a short - term downward structure on the hourly level. It increased positions and declined today, continuing the short - term downward path. Pre - holiday remaining short positions can still be held, and the stop - profit can be lowered to the high on April 30 [17]. Urea - **Weekly Fundamental View**: The pre - holiday rumor of export liberalization pushed the futures price to reverse in the short term, but it has not been confirmed. The peak agricultural demand season is over, and there is a possibility of export relaxation, but port inventory verification is still needed. - **Daily Technical Analysis**: It has a short - term upward structure on the hourly level. Technically, it increased positions and rose today. After the short - term structure reversed before the holiday, the new short - term support reference is the low on April 30. The strategy is to consider going long when it does not break through the support [21]. Methanol - **Weekly Fundamental View**: The explosion in the container area of Abbas Port in Iran before the holiday had limited impact. With the resumption of Iranian plant operations, the shipping speed of Middle - East methanol has accelerated, and the import pressure will gradually become prominent. - **Daily Technical Analysis**: It has a downward structure on the hourly level. Technically, it increased positions and reached a new low today, continuing the downward path on the hourly cycle. The pressure level still refers to the high on April 28. The strategy is to look for a reversal pattern when it fails to break through the pressure level on the hourly cycle and go short [24]. Rubber - **Weekly Fundamental View**: The high tire inventory has led to a decline in the tire operating rate. The weekly operating rate of all - steel tires has dropped by 6.2%. However, the futures price has already fully reflected this. The current divergence lies in the verification of the output after the Southeast Asian rubber tapping season. The macro - demand expectation is bearish and difficult to improve. Pay attention to whether there are any abnormalities in the Southeast Asian weather in the short term. - **Daily Technical Analysis**: It has a medium - term downward structure on the daily level and a short - term oscillating structure on the hourly level. Technically, it decreased positions and rebounded today, but in the long run, it is still in an oscillating pattern. The upper pressure still refers to the high on April 8. Recently, it has been doing an oversold repair through narrow - range oscillation by trading time for space. There is no trading opportunity for now [25]. Caustic Soda - **Daily Technical Analysis**: It has a medium - term downward structure on the daily level and a short - term upward structure on the hourly level. It broke through the short - term pressure level of the high on April 25 today, and the short - term structure has reversed. The pre - holiday short positions should stop the loss [29]. Ethylene Glycol - **Daily Technical Analysis**: It has a medium - term downward structure on the daily level and a short - term downward structure on the hourly level. It increased positions and declined today, and the short - term pressure and stop - profit level are lowered to the high on April 30 [32]. Plastic - **Weekly Fundamental View**: It has recently followed the cost - end crude oil fluctuations. - **Daily Technical Analysis**: It has a medium - term downward structure on the daily level and a short - term downward structure on the hourly level. It increased positions and declined today, continuing the downward path. The pressure level is lowered to the high on April 30. Short positions can be held, and the stop - profit refers to the high on April 2 [33].

油脂持续下挫 一、农产品板块综述 五一假期后油脂板块持续下跌,棕榈油领跌,马棕油产区进入增 产季,产量增幅大于出口增幅,库存有继续回升预期,压制棕榈油期 价大幅下跌,预计后市仍将偏弱运行。鸡蛋眺空下行,蛋鸡存栏高位, 老鸡淘汰缓慢,鸡蛋供应充足,五一期间团体采购停滞,需求减少, 鸡蛋现货价格持续下行,期价亦跳空大跌,预计后市将继续拓展下行 空间。苹果冲高回落,大幅波动,五一假期苹果走货顺畅,库存偏低, 产区新季苹果受到不利天气影响,坐果欠佳,支撑苹果价格,预计后 市苹果期价将高位波动。 二、品种策略跟踪 (一) 棕榈油:扩大跌幅 焦点关注:棕榈油主力 2509 合约五一后继续扩大跌幅,弱势展 开: 1.棕榈油产地增产顺利,市场预期马来西亚棕榈油库存继续累库, 施压棕油期价。MPOA 和 SPPOMA 两家协会预计 4 月马棕榈油产量环 比分别增长 24.62%和 17.03%,而出口增幅相对较小,产量增幅大于 出口增幅或令马棕榈油库存上升。市场关注 MPOB 即将公布的月度供 需报告,预计该报告将调增马棕榈油 4 月产量和库存,带来偏空影响。 同时印尼 B40 政策无进展,市场对棕榈油消费信心不足。 2.国内 ...

油脂豆粕持续下挫 一、农产品板块综述 油脂板块持续下跌,棕榈油领跌,产区进入增产季,供给宽松预 期施压期价下挫。豆粕亦持续下挫,进口大豆陆续进厂卸货,油厂开 机率将增加,豆粕供应亦将回升,期价承压下挫,后市或将偏弱运行。 生猪破位大跌,标肥价差倒挂,养殖端压栏增重风险增大,出栏量增 大,下游肉类消费替代品增多,消费缺乏增量,猪价承压下行。玉米 冲高回落,高位受到部分多头获利回吐打压,但玉米基层余粮降低, 小麦产区干旱,麦价上涨令替代优势减弱,支撑玉米价格,预计后市 玉米期价仍将偏强运行。 二、品种策略跟踪 (一) 棕櫚油:扩大跌幅 焦点关注:棕榈油主力 2509 合约继周一大跌后继续扩大跌幅, 展开下行趋势: 1.棕榈油产地呈现供需双增局面,但供给宽松局面施压盘面,高 频数据显示 4 月 1–20 目马来西亚棕榈油产量增 9%-20%不等,4 月 前 25 日马棕油出口环比增加 3%―15%不等。市场预计马来西亚棕榈 油总署 MPOB 将在 5 月供需报告中调高棕榈油库存,季节性增产压力 来袭。同时印尼 B40 政策无进展，市场对棕榈油消费信心不足。 2.近期国内进口利润得到修复,买船增加,供应增加预期叠加需 ...

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core View of the Report - Crude oil's medium - term drivers (supply - demand, macro, and geopolitics) still point downward, with a bearish outlook. Short - term upward repair is limited, and the medium - to long - term oversupply pattern persists. During the May Day holiday, there is a high probability of a decline in crude oil prices, and it is recommended to hold a light position before the holiday or use some options instead [1]. - For the energy and chemical sector, profitable positions can be partially liquidated before the holiday, and for those that have exited, wait for post - holiday opportunities [3]. Summary by Related Catalogs Crude Oil - **Weekly Fundamental View**: Kazakhstan prioritizes national interests over OPEC+ interests, and some OPEC+ members want to accelerate production increase in June, leading to an expected supply surplus [4]. - **Daily Technical Analysis**: The daily - level shows a medium - term downward structure, and the hourly - level shows a short - term downward structure. After a long - negative candlestick with reduced positions today, the downward structure is further confirmed, but there may be short - term fluctuations. The upper pressure is around 499. Last week's short positions can still be held, with the stop - profit moved down to today's high, and partial positions can be exited before the holiday. Pay attention to the opportunity of buying options after the implied volatility drops [4]. Styrene - **Weekly Fundamental View**: The upside of crude oil is limited, and the cost side is under pressure. The supply and demand of pure benzene are both weak, and the supply of styrene is expected to increase while the inventory is high, resulting in a bearish fundamental outlook [7]. - **Daily Technical Analysis**: The hourly - level shows a short - term downward structure. After today's intraday oscillation, the downward path continues. The pressure is the high on April 23, and the stop - loss for last week's short positions still refers to the high on April 25. Partial positions can be liquidated before the holiday [7]. PX - **Weekly Fundamental View**: The upside of crude oil is limited, and the cost side is under pressure. The terminal textile demand is weak, and the polyester production at a high level is under pressure to decline [11]. - **Daily Technical Analysis**: The hourly - level shows a short - term downward structure. It fell with crude oil today, with no signal at the hourly - level but a downward turn at the 15 - minute level. The pressure is the high on April 8. The strategy is to short on the reversal pattern without breaking through the pressure, but it is not recommended to open new positions before the holiday [11]. PTA - **Weekly Fundamental View**: The upside of crude oil is limited, and the cost side is under pressure. The short - term demand is strong, but the medium - term demand is under pressure due to high tariffs on textiles in the US [14]. - **Daily Technical Analysis**: The hourly - level shows a short - term upward structure. It fell with reduced positions today but did not break below the low on the night of April 25. There is no opportunity to enter short positions again for now [14]. PP - **Weekly Fundamental View**: PP enters the maintenance season from late April to May, with a decline in the operating rate expected. The demand is under pressure due to the end of the peak season and export tariffs, and the cost side is under pressure. The fundamentals are bearish [17]. - **Daily Technical Analysis**: The hourly - level shows a short - term downward structure. After today's intraday oscillation, the downward trend remains. Last week's short positions can still be held, with the stop - profit referring to the high on April 16, and partial positions can be liquidated before the holiday [17]. Urea - **Weekly Fundamental View**: The restart of short - term shutdown devices will maintain a high supply, while the summer fertilizer preparation demand has not started, and the export policy is tight. The short - term supply is strong and the demand is weak, with a bearish outlook [21]. - **Daily Technical Analysis**: The hourly - level shows a short - term downward structure. After a new low with increased positions today, the trend remains unchanged. Last week's short positions can continue to be held, with the stop - profit referring to the high on April 18, and partial profit - taking can be done before the holiday [21]. Methanol - **Weekly Fundamental View**: Due to tariff pressure, the export demand of methanol's downstream products is weak, and the demand has declined significantly. Although there are maintenance of inland devices, the supply is expected to increase. The supply and demand are weak, with a bearish outlook [22]. - **Daily Technical Analysis**: The hourly - level shows a downward structure. After a decline with reduced positions today, the downward trend remains. The pressure level refers to the high on April 7. The strategy is to short on the reversal pattern without breaking through the pressure, but there is no good opportunity to open new positions before the holiday [24]. Rubber - **Weekly Fundamental View**: The weekly fundamentals change little, and it follows the tariff sentiment. The spot price above 15,000 is at a high level in recent years. After the Southeast Asian rubber - tapping season, the supply is expected to be loose. The domestic tire inventory is high, and the substitution of synthetic rubber for natural rubber is expected to increase. The medium - term outlook is bearish [25]. - **Daily Technical Analysis**: The daily - level shows a medium - term downward structure, and the hourly - level shows a short - term downward structure. After today's intraday oscillation, it is in a narrow - range oscillation for oversold repair. There is no opportunity after the previous short positions took profit [25]. Caustic Soda - **Daily Technical Analysis**: The daily - level shows a medium - term downward structure, and the hourly - level shows a short - term downward structure. After today's intraday oscillation, the downward path remains. Last week's short positions can still be held, with the stop - profit referring to the high on April 25 [28]. Ethylene Glycol - **Daily Technical Analysis**: The daily - level shows a medium - term downward structure, and the hourly - level shows a short - term downward structure. After today's intraday oscillation, there is no signal of trend reversal. The short - term pressure level is the high on April 7. After the previous short positions took profit last week, it is recommended to wait and see [29][32]. Plastic - **Weekly Fundamental View**: The upside of crude oil is limited, and the cost side is under pressure. The peak season of agricultural film is over, the demand is weak, and the supply remains high. The supply is strong and the demand is weak, with a bearish outlook [33]. - **Daily Technical Analysis**: The daily - level shows a medium - term downward structure, and the hourly - level shows a short - term downward structure. After today's intraday oscillation, the downward path continues. The pressure level is the high on April 7. Short positions can be held, with the stop - profit referring to the high on April 23, and partial profit - taking can be done before the holiday [33].

本报告完成时间为 2025 年 4 月 28 日 18:00 来源：公开信息、同花顺 iFinD、东方财富 Choice 及钢联数据 市场有风险 投资需谨慎 观点和信息仅供参考之用 不构成任何人的投资建议 务必阅读文章末尾免责声明 作者： 金海东 从业资格号: F03088653 交易咨询从业资格号：Z0016875 原油盘面仍然偏弱,注意假期内时间节点 天富期货有限公司 期货投资咨询业务许可 证监许可[2011]1450 号 摘要: 原油中期三大驱动:供需、宏观、地缘目前均未看到反转,仍指 向下方,偏空看待。短期市场经过海外风险偏好的改善。原油随风险 资产有一定上行修复,但对关税战的判断仍是短期中美不会有缓和出 现。本周美国一系列经济数据公布将逐步反应关税影响,如数据走弱, 宏观衰退逻辑或重新回归。此外在哈萨克斯坦对原油产量的表态减弱 了补偿减产协议的最终执行效果。供应压力或进一步提前,原油市场 中长期过剩格局依然存在。 关键时间节点上,五一假期中除了美国一系列经济数据公布,5 月 3 日美伊的第四轮谈判,5 月 5 日 OPEC+会议也可能从供应端形成 新的驱动。目前看伊朗有达成协议的意愿, OPEC+也 ...

天富期货有限公司 期货投资咨询业务许可 证监许可[2011]1450 号 本报告完成时间为 2025 年 4 月 25 日 18:00 来源：公开信息、同花顺 iFinD、东方财富 Choice 及钢联数据 此外围绕伊朗的中东地缘方面,目前美伊两轮会谈结束,谈判未 破裂,同时有特朗普否决以色列对伊朗设施的袭击,短期地缘暂未被 交易,但对伊朗有新一轮制裁,仍需需跟踪美伊谈判进展,本周末将 有第三轮谈判。如果谈判结果较差,未来地缘影响加大的时间节点在 5 月初(特朗普给伊朗信件并提出的两个月内达成新核协议的最后期 限）。 板块综述 原油日内震荡,仍是不过压力逢高空思路。能化各品种今日总体 仍弱于原油,eb 再有试空机会，橡胶虽然收盘价变化不大，但冲高 回落下, 小时周期打到止盈,按计划离场。部分品种: px、pta、eg 前日止损止盈后需寻找新的进场机会,未止损的品种:PP、尿素、塑 料空单仍能持有。 (一) 原油: 市场有风险 投资需谨慎 观点和信息仅供参考之用 不构成任何人的投资建议 务必阅读文章末尾免责声明 作者： 金海东 从业资格号: F03088653 交易咨询从业资格号：Z0016875 原油阶段性反 ...