小作文扰动能化午后反弹，但仍偏弱看待 逻辑：供应端最新周开工率 78.18%高位运行，8 月计划投产装置 兑现，关注 9 月新产能落地节奏，需求端近期下游开工回升，需求有 所走强，但目前同比高位的港口库存与新产能投放压力下继续累库压 力依然较大，仍偏空对待。 行情日评： （一）原油： 逻辑：周末特-普阿拉斯加会晤随未直接达成实质协议，但后会 品种 中期结构 短期结构 小时周期策略 原油 偏空 偏空 空单持有 EB 震荡 偏空 空单持有 PX 震荡 偏多 观望 PTA 震荡 偏空 空单持有 PP 震荡 偏空 空单持有 塑料 震荡 震荡 空单持有 甲醇 偏空 偏空 部分止盈后剩余空单持有 EG 震荡 震荡 空单止盈 橡胶 震荡 偏空 空单持有 PVC 偏空 偏空 空单持有 BR 橡胶 偏空 偏空 空单持有 纯碱 偏多 偏空 空单持有 烧碱 偏空 震荡 观望 板块观点汇总 后表态相对积极，特朗普未提对俄制裁，俄乌降温趋势短期地缘扰动 减弱，原油重回基本面逻辑，季节性需求拐点临近与 OPEC+增产加速 下原油过剩压力将逐步兑现。 日度技术追踪：原油日线级别中期/跌结构，小时级别短期下跌 结构。今日日内震荡，重心继续缓 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The rapeseed meal market is strong due to concerns about supply shortages after China imposed high margins on Canadian rapeseed imports. The pork market is weak as group pig enterprises increase sales and high - temperature weather suppresses demand. The soybean oil market is in adjustment with high output and rising inventory [1]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs 3.1 Agricultural Product Sector Overview - Rapeseed meal is strong and is expected to remain at a high level. Pork prices are falling and may continue to decline. Soybean oil prices are in adjustment and the correction may continue [1]. 3.2 Variety Strategy Tracking 3.2.1 Rapeseed Meal and Soybean Meal - The main rapeseed meal 2601 contract and soybean meal 2601 contract are both in an upward trend. High import costs and low domestic inventories support rapeseed meal prices, while uncertain Sino - US economic and trade relations and high import costs support soybean meal prices. Technically, they are strong, and the strategy is to hold light - position long positions [2]. 3.2.2 Pork - The main pork 2511 contract is in a downward trend. Supply is abundant as group pig enterprises and散户猪场 increase sales, and demand is weak due to high - temperature weather. Technically, it is weak, and the strategy is to hold light - position short positions [3][5]. 3.2.3 Corn - The main corn 2511 contract first declined and then rebounded, but the decline was only narrowed. Supply is abundant due to continuous auctions and upcoming new corn, and demand is weak. Technically, it is weak, and the strategy is to hold light - position short positions [6]. 3.2.4 Eggs - The main egg 2510 contract first declined and then rebounded, but the downward trend remains. High egg - laying hen inventory, continuous cold - storage egg release, and weak demand lead to a supply - pressure situation. Technically, it is weak, and the strategy is to hold light - position short positions [8]. 3.2.5 Palm Oil - The main palm oil 2601 contract is slightly adjusted but remains at a high level. Strong exports from Malaysia and concerns about future supply support prices. Technically, it is strong, and the strategy is to hold light - position long positions [10]. 3.2.6 Soybean Oil - The main soybean oil 2601 contract has a significant adjustment. High soybean imports and rising inventory lead to a decline in prices. Technically, it turns weak, and the strategy is to close long positions [12]. 3.2.7 Cotton - The main cotton 2601 contract is in a falling and oscillating state. Old - crop supply is tight, but new - crop supply is expected to increase. Downstream demand shows some improvement but is still weak overall. The strategy is short - term trading [14]. 3.2.8 Red Dates - The main red date 2601 contract first declined and then rebounded, remaining at a high level. Concerns about reduced production in Xinjiang and expected consumption recovery support prices. Technically, it is strong, and the strategy is to hold long positions [16]. 3.2.9 White Sugar - The main white sugar 2601 contract first declined and then rebounded, showing an upward trend. The domestic market atmosphere is warming up, but increasing imports bring supply pressure. Technically, it is strong, and the strategy is to hold long positions [18]. 3.2.10 Apples - The main apple 2510 contract breaks down. The increase in early - maturing apple supply and low inventory lead to price declines. Technically, it turns weak, and the strategy is to close long positions [20].

原油继续回落，能化延续下跌压力 行情日评： （一）原油： 逻辑：周末特-普阿拉斯加会晤随未直接达成实质协议，但后会 品种 中期结构 短期结构 小时周期策略 原油 偏空 偏空 空单持有 EB 震荡 偏空 空单持有 PX 震荡 震荡 空单止盈 PTA 震荡 偏空 空单持有 PP 震荡 偏空 空单持有 塑料 震荡 震荡 空单持有 甲醇 偏空 偏空 部分止盈，剩余空单继续持有 EG 震荡 偏空 空单持有 橡胶 震荡 偏空 空单持有 PVC 偏空 偏空 空单持有 BR 橡胶 偏空 偏空 空单持有 纯碱 偏多 偏空 09 空单持有 烧碱 偏空 震荡 寻 15 分钟试空机会 板块观点汇总 后表态相对积极，特朗普未提对俄制裁，俄乌降温趋势短期地缘扰动 减弱，原油重回基本面逻辑，季节性需求拐点临近与 OPEC+增产加速 下原油过剩压力将逐步兑现。 日度技术追踪：原油日线级别中期/跌结构，小时级别短期下跌 结构。今日日内震荡，下跌路径未改，小时级别上方短期压力 490 一 线，策略上小时周期空单持有。 数据来源：天富期货研询部、文华财经 图 1.2：原油小时图 图 1.1：原油 2510 日线图 （二）苯乙烯： 逻辑：供应端最新 ...

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints of the Report - Corn prices are under pressure due to ample supply, including continuous auctions of imported corn, strong substitution advantage of wheat, and high expectations of a new corn harvest, and the weak trend is expected to continue [1][2] - Egg prices are also declining as egg - laying hen inventory is high, new production is increasing, and cold - storage eggs are continuously hitting the market, and the weak trend is likely to persist [1][4] - Palm oil prices are rising due to strong exports of Malaysian palm oil and concerns about subsequent supply in production areas [5][7] - Soybean oil shows a pattern of near - term weakness and long - term strength, with short - term supply increase and long - term supply shortage expectations [8][10] - Hog prices are rebounding from a low level, with supply being relatively loose and demand showing signs of mild recovery [11] - Cotton prices are in high - level consolidation, with factors such as declining commercial inventory and weak downstream demand [13] - Jujube prices are fluctuating at a high level, with concerns about production and expectations of improved downstream consumption [16] - Sugar prices are fluctuating at a high level, with supply - side pressure from increasing imports and improved domestic market trading [19] - Soybean meal prices are rising, supported by uncertain Sino - US economic and trade relations and expectations of less imported soybeans in the fourth quarter [20][22] - Apple prices are adjusting at a high level, with low inventory and different situations in different production areas [23] Summary by Related Catalogs 1. Agricultural Products Sector Overview - Corn prices are falling continuously because of ample supply, and the weak trend is expected to continue; egg prices are also in a downward trend due to high supply pressure [1] 2. Variety Strategy Tracking (1) Corn - The main 2511 contract of corn is falling continuously to new lows because of ample supply, including continuous auctions of imported corn, strong substitution advantage of wheat, and approaching new corn listing. Technically, it is weak, and a light - short position strategy is recommended. The support level is 2150, and the resistance level is 2180 [2] (2) Egg - The main 2510 contract of eggs is falling under supply pressure, with high egg - laying hen inventory, increasing new production, and continuous release of cold - storage eggs. Technically, it is weak, and a light - short position strategy is recommended. The support level is 3050, and the resistance level is 3080 [4] (3) Palm Oil - The main 2601 contract of palm oil is rising, boosted by strong exports of Malaysian palm oil and concerns about subsequent supply in production areas. Technically, it is strong, and a light - long position strategy is recommended. The support level is 9508, and the resistance level is 9736 [7] (4) Soybean Oil - The main 2601 contract of soybean oil is fluctuating at a high level, with short - term supply increase due to concentrated arrival of imported soybeans and long - term supply shortage expectations. Technically, it is in an upward trend, and a long - position holding strategy is recommended. The support level is 8500, and the resistance level is 8580 [8][10] (5) Hog - The main 2511 contract of hogs is rebounding from a low level. Supply is relatively loose, and demand is showing mild recovery. Technically, the main downward trend is still in place, and a short - position reduction strategy is recommended. The support level is 13800, and the resistance level is 14950 [11] (6) Cotton - The main 2601 contract of cotton is in high - level consolidation, with declining commercial inventory, less imported cotton, and weak downstream demand. Technically, it is recommended to close long positions. The support level is 14050, and the resistance level is 14200 [13] (7) Jujube - The main 2601 contract of jujubes is fluctuating at a high level. There are concerns about production decline, and downstream consumption is expected to improve. Technically, it is strong, and a long - position holding strategy is recommended. The support level is 11435, and the resistance level is 11825 [16] (8) Sugar - The main 2601 contract of sugar is fluctuating at a high level. Domestic market trading is improving, but import volume is increasing, putting pressure on the supply side. Technically, it is strong, and a long - position holding strategy is recommended. The support level is 5647, and the resistance level is 5700 [19] (9) Soybean Meal - The main 2601 contract of soybean meal is rising, supported by uncertain Sino - US economic and trade relations and expectations of less imported soybeans in the fourth quarter. Technically, it is strong, and a light - long position strategy is recommended. The support level is 3154, and the resistance level is 3190 [20][22] (10) Apple - The main 2510 contract of apples is adjusting at a high level, with low inventory and different situations in different production areas. Technically, the upward trend remains, and a long - position holding strategy is recommended. The support level is 8108, and the resistance level is 8250 [23]

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core View of the Report The report analyzes the market conditions of various energy and chemical products, including crude oil, styrene, rubber, etc. It points out that most products have a bearish short - term outlook, with supply - demand imbalances and technical indicators suggesting downward trends. The market trends of some products are also affected by the movement of crude oil and other factors [1][2][5]. Summary by Related Catalogs Crude Oil - Logic: In September, the production increase is 547,000 barrels per day. The end of the peak season in the US leads to weak apparent demand, and the geopolitical situation has an impact. The supply - demand fundamentals are weakening [1][2]. - Technical Analysis: The daily - level is in a medium - term/downward structure, and the hourly - level is in a short - term downward structure. There was a rebound with reduced positions today, and it's considered a small - scale repair after breaking through the support. The short - term pressure on the hourly level is at 490. The strategy is to hold short positions on the hourly cycle [2]. Styrene (EB) - Logic: In August, demand is still in the off - season and remains weak. The supply operation rate is maintained at a high level of around 77%, and new device production will increase supply pressure. Inventory pressure is relatively high year - on - year, and supply - demand is weak [5]. - Technical Analysis: The hourly - level is in a short - term downward structure. It oscillated today, and the short - term downward path remains unchanged. The short - term pressure is at 7375. The strategy is to hold short positions on the hourly cycle [5]. Rubber - Logic: According to seasonal logic, prices should be stronger in the second half of the year, but this year, the supply side has difficulty increasing production. Although the rainy season in the production area has an impact, there is no extreme weather. Short - term improvement in downstream tire operation provides some support, but high tire inventory restricts further improvement. The medium - term fundamental driving force is downward [9]. - Technical Analysis: The daily - level is in a medium - term downward structure, and the hourly - level is in a short - term downward structure. There was an upward movement in the afternoon today, testing the short - term pressure at 15950 but not breaking through. The strategy is to hold short positions on the hourly cycle, with a stop - loss reference at 15950 [9]. Synthetic Rubber (BR) - Logic: The demand side of tires has a weak medium - term outlook. The supply side has not fully resumed production after maintenance, and production is relatively high under the pressure of new production capacity, so it is bearish in the medium - term. It is supported in the short - term by the low inventory of upstream butadiene [14]. - Technical Analysis: The daily - level is in a medium - term oscillating/downward structure, and the hourly - level is in a short - term downward structure. It followed the upward movement of rubber in the afternoon today, but the trading volume was weaker. The short - term pressure at 11950 for the 10 - contract remains effective. The strategy is to hold short positions on the hourly cycle [14]. PX - Logic: The upstream PX devices are operating stably. The downstream terminal's operating rate has increased slightly during the off - peak to peak season transition, but the short - term contradiction is not significant, and it may follow the direction of the cost - end crude oil [19]. - Technical Analysis: The hourly - level is in a short - term downward structure. Today's movement is considered a rebound after breaking through the support. The short - term pressure is at 6735. The strategy is to hold short positions on the hourly cycle [19]. PTA - Logic: The demand for polyester is weak. The supply - side operating rate is at a medium level year - on - year, and short - term inventory has shifted to accumulation. The contradiction is not obvious, and it may follow the direction of the cost - end crude oil [21]. - Technical Analysis: The hourly - level is in][21]. PP - Logic: During the demand off - season, the downstream operating rate is weak. With the launch of new production capacity and the restart of maintenance devices, inventory in all links of the industry chain continues to accumulate, and the fundamentals are weak. It is also necessary to pay attention to the movement of crude oil [23]. - Technical Analysis: The hourly - level is in a short - term downward structure. It oscillated today without changing the downward structure. The hourly - level pressure is at 7195, and the 15 - minute cycle pressure can be focused on at 7090 first. The strategy is to hold short positions on the hourly cycle [23]. Methanol - Logic: The supply - side operating rate has rebounded to 73% after two consecutive weeks of increase, reaching the highest level in history year - on - year. The arrival volume in July was low due to Iranian device shutdowns, but it is expected to increase significantly in August. Downstream demand is differentiated, and port inventory has reached the highest level in the same period in the past five years under high - supply pressure, so the fundamental driving force is weak [28]. - Technical Analysis: The daily - level is in a medium - term downward/oscillating structure, and the hourly - level is in a short - term downward structure. Today, there was a large - volume long - negative line after increasing positions, and it accelerated downward after breaking through the support. The short - term pressure has moved down to 2360 (09 contract). The strategy is to hold short positions on the hourly cycle [28]. PVC - Logic: Some supply - side devices have ended maintenance, and the operating rate has rebounded to a high level of 77.8% year - on - year. The demand is difficult to improve due to the downward trend in the real - estate market and the off - season. Inventory has continued to accumulate, and the fundamental driving force is bearish [30]. - Technical Analysis: The daily - level is in a medium - term upward structure, and the hourly - level is in a short - term downward structure. After a large - volume long - negative line with increased positions today, it remains on a downward path. The short - term pressure is at 5070. The strategy is to hold short positions on the hourly cycle and consider moving positions to the 01 contract [30]. Ethylene Glycol (EG) - Logic: The relatively low port inventory makes the short - term fundamentals of ethylene glycol better than other energy and chemical products, but the inventory accumulation expectation also limits the upside space. It is necessary to pay attention to the start time of inventory accumulation [32]. - Technical Analysis: The daily - level is in a medium - term oscillating/downward structure, and the hourly - level is in a short - term downward structure. It oscillated today, waiting to confirm the downward acceleration after breaking through the support. The short - term pressure is at 4415. The strategy is to hold short positions on the hourly cycle [32]. Plastic - Logic: The increase in operating rate and the launch of new production capacity lead to large supply pressure. The downstream operating rate remains at a low level year - on - year, and inventory in ports and society continues to accumulate, so the supply - demand driving force is bearish [36]. - Technical Analysis: The daily - level is in a medium - term oscillating/downward structure, and the hourly - level is in an oscillating structure. It oscillated today, and the hourly - level structure is not clear, while the 15 - minute level is in a downward structure. The strategy is to wait and see on the hourly cycle and hold short positions on the 15 - minute cycle, with a stop - loss reference at 7320 [36]. Soda Ash - Logic: The supply side continued to increase production last week, with a month - on - month increase of 45,000 tons in output. The speculative demand in the glass market has weakened except for rigid demand. The inventory pressure of soda ash plants has increased significantly again, and the heavy - soda inventory has reached a new historical high. The supply - demand pressure of soda ash is still large, and the anti - involution has no substantial impact on soda ash supply [37]. - Technical Analysis: The hourly - level is in a downward structure. It tested the short - term pressure today but failed and closed with a long upper shadow. The 09 and 01 contracts have different structures, with the 09 contract in a downward trend and the 01 contract in an upward trend. The short - term pressure of the 09 contract is at 1295. The strategy is to hold short positions on the 09 contract, with a stop - loss reference at 1310 [37][39]. Caustic Soda - Logic: The demand side has a high operating rate for alumina, and the operating rate of non - aluminum demand for viscose staple fiber has also increased and remains at a high level. However, the supply of caustic soda itself has increased rapidly, the profit of chlor - alkali has increased, and the operating rate of caustic soda has further increased. With a larger supply increment, the inventory continues to accumulate, and the fundamentals are still weak [41]. - Technical Analysis: The hourly - level is in an oscillating structure. The 09 and 01 contracts still have different structures, with the 01 contract being stronger and the 09 contract being weaker. It oscillated on the disk today. The strategy is to start from the 15 - minute cycle of the 09 contract and try short positions after breaking through the 15 - minute support at 2510, with a stop - loss at today's high [41][43].

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No investment rating information is provided in the report. 2. Core View of the Report The decline in crude oil prices has led to a downward trend in the energy - chemical sector. Most energy - chemical products are facing weak fundamentals and show a downward trend in the short - term technical analysis, with investment strategies mainly suggesting holding short positions [1][2]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs (1) Crude Oil - **Logic**: In September, the production increase rate continued at 547,000 barrels per day. The end of the peak season in the US led to weak apparent demand, and the supply - demand fundamentals continued to deteriorate. Geopolitically, the US and Russia agreed to hold cease - fire negotiations on the Russia - Ukraine conflict [2][3]. - **Technical Analysis**: The daily - level mid - term and hourly - level short - term are both in a downward structure. After today's decline, the daily - level break - down was confirmed, and the short - term pressure on the hourly level moved down to 490. The strategy is to hold short positions on the hourly cycle [3]. (2) Benzene Ethylene (EB) - **Logic**: In August, demand was still in the off - season and remained weak. The supply start - up rate remained at a high level of around 77%. With the commissioning of new plants, supply pressure would further increase, and inventory pressure was relatively high year - on - year [6]. - **Technical Analysis**: The hourly - level short - term is in a downward structure. Today, it increased positions and declined, testing the lower edge of the 15 - minute oscillation. The short - term pressure above is at 7375. The strategy is to hold short positions on the hourly cycle [6]. (3) Rubber - **Logic**: According to the seasonal pattern, prices should be stronger in the second half of the year, but this year, the supply side has difficulty increasing production. Although there is some impact from the rainy season in the producing areas, there is no extreme weather. Short - term tire start - up has improved, but high tire inventory still suppresses the expectation of further start - up recovery. The mid - term fundamental driver is downward [9]. - **Technical Analysis**: The daily - level mid - term and hourly - level short - term are both in a downward structure. Today, it increased positions and declined. The 15 - minute small cycle turned down, and there was a reversal signal at the 15950 pressure level on the hourly level. There is an opportunity to try short positions on the hourly cycle, with a stop - loss reference of 15950 [9]. (4) Synthetic Rubber (BR) - **Logic**: The demand side of tires is expected to remain weak in the medium term. The supply side has not resumed production after maintenance, and production is higher than new capacity, so it is bearish in the medium term. Short - term support comes from the low inventory of upstream butadiene [12]. - **Technical Analysis**: The daily - level mid - term is in an oscillatory/downward structure, and the hourly - level short - term is in a downward structure. Today, it increased positions and declined. There was a confirmed reversal signal at the 11950 short - term pressure level of the 10 - contract. The strategy is to hold short positions on the hourly cycle [12]. (5) PX - **Logic**: The upstream PX device is operating stably. The start - up of downstream terminals has increased at a low level during the off - peak to peak season transition. There is no major short - term contradiction, and it may follow the direction of the cost - end crude oil [16]. - **Technical Analysis**: The hourly - level short - term is in a downward structure. Today, it increased positions and had a long negative line. After a short - term break - down, the decline accelerated, and the short - term pressure above moved down to 6735. The strategy is to hold short positions on the hourly cycle [16]. (6) PTA - **Logic**: Polyester demand is weak. The supply - side start - up is at a medium level year - on - year. Short - term inventory has turned to accumulation. There is no obvious contradiction, and it may follow the direction of the cost - end crude oil [19]. - **Technical Analysis**: The hourly - level short - term is in a downward structure. Today, it increased positions and declined during the day. After a short - term break - down, the decline may accelerate. The short - term pressure above still focuses on 4760. The strategy is to hold short positions on the hourly cycle [19]. (7) PP - **Logic**: In the off - season of demand, downstream start - up is weak. With the commissioning of new capacity and the restart of maintenance devices, inventory in each link of the industrial chain continues to accumulate, and the fundamentals are weak. Also, pay attention to the trend of crude oil [22]. - **Technical Analysis**: The hourly - level short - term is in a downward structure. Today, it oscillated during the day without changing the downward structure. The hourly pressure level of 7195 is far away, and the 15 - minute cycle pressure of 7090 can be focused on first. The strategy is to hold short positions on the hourly cycle [22]. (8) Methanol - **Logic**: The supply - side start - up rate has rebounded to 73% after two consecutive weeks of increase, remaining at the highest level in history year - on - year. The arrival in July was low due to Iranian plant shutdowns, but the Iranian plants resumed in August, and the arrival is expected to increase significantly. Downstream demand is differentiated. Under high - supply pressure, port inventory has reached the highest level in the same period in the past five years, and the fundamental driver is weak [24]. - **Technical Analysis**: The daily - level mid - term is in a downward/oscillatory structure, and the short - term is in a downward structure. After a long negative line with increased positions and volume today, the short - term break - down accelerated, and the short - term pressure above is 2400. The strategy is to hold short positions on the hourly cycle [24]. (9) PVC - **Logic**: Some supply - side devices have ended maintenance, and the start - up rate has rebounded to a high level of 77.8% year - on - year. Demand is difficult to improve due to the downward real - estate market and the off - season. The pressure of continuous inventory accumulation is evident, and the fundamental driver is bearish [27]. - **Technical Analysis**: The daily - level mid - term is in an upward structure, and the hourly - level short - term is in a downward structure. After a long negative line with increased positions and volume today, it is still on a downward path, and the short - term pressure above is 5070. The strategy is to hold short positions on the hourly cycle [27]. (10) Ethylene Glycol (EG) - **Logic**: The low port inventory makes the short - term fundamentals of ethylene glycol better than other energy - chemical products, but the expectation of inventory accumulation also limits the upward space. Pay attention to the start time of inventory accumulation [30]. - **Technical Analysis**: The daily - level mid - term is in an oscillatory/downward structure, and the hourly - level short - term is in a downward structure. Today, it declined with volume. Wait for the confirmation of a break - down and then the decline will accelerate. The short - term pressure above is 4415. The strategy is to hold short positions on the hourly cycle [30]. (11) Plastic - **Logic**: The start - up rate has increased, and with the commissioning of new capacity, the supply pressure is relatively large. The downstream start - up rate remains at a low level year - on - year. The pressure of continuous inventory accumulation in ports and social inventories is evident, and the supply - demand driver is bearish [32]. - **Technical Analysis**: The daily - level mid - term is in an oscillatory/downward structure, and the hourly - level is in an oscillatory structure. Today, it oscillated during the day, and the hourly - level structure is not clear. The 15 - minute level is in a downward structure. The strategy is to wait and see on the hourly cycle and hold short positions on the 15 - minute cycle, with a stop - loss reference of 7320 [32]. (12) Soda Ash - **Logic**: The supply side continued to increase production last week, with a month - on - month increase of 45,000 tons in output. On the demand side, in addition to the rigid demand for glass, speculative demand has weakened. The inventory pressure of soda ash plants has increased significantly again, and the heavy - soda inventory has reached a new historical high. The inventory pressure is large, and the supply - demand pressure of soda ash remains high. The anti - involution has no substantial impact on the soda ash supply [33]. - **Technical Analysis**: The hourly - level is in a downward structure. Today, it oscillated. The 09 and 01 contracts still have differentiated structures, with the 09 contract declining and the 01 contract rising. There was a reversal signal at the 1295 pressure level of the 09 contract during the session. There is an opportunity to try short positions on the 09 contract, with a stop - loss reference of 1310 [33]. (13) Caustic Soda - **Logic**: On the demand side, the start - up of alumina remains at a high level, and the start - up of non - aluminum demand viscose staple fiber has also increased and remains at a high level. However, the supply of caustic soda itself has also increased rapidly, the chlor - alkali profit has increased, and the caustic soda start - up has further increased. With a larger supply increment, the inventory has continued to accumulate, and the fundamentals remain weak [37]. - **Technical Analysis**: The hourly - level is in an oscillatory structure. The 09 and 01 contracts are still differentiated. The 01 contract has a strong structure but performed weakly today, and the 09 contract has a weaker structure but performed strongly today. At the same time, the 09 contract shows signs of breaking through the 2540 pressure. The strategy is to start from the 15 - minute cycle of the 09 contract and try short positions after breaking through the 15 - minute 2515 support, with a stop - loss at today's high [37].

1. Report's Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core View of the Report The agricultural products sector shows mixed trends. Oils are experiencing a high - level correction, with the overall upward trend of palm oil not materially changed. The far - month main contract of live pigs has tumbled due to high supply and weak demand. Cotton prices are rising steadily supported by low inventory and imports. Different agricultural products have their own supply - demand and market factors influencing their price movements [1]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs 3.1 Agricultural Products Sector Overview - Oils have corrected from high levels. After a previous sharp rise, the Zhengzhou Commodity Exchange issued a risk warning letter for rapeseed oil, cooling market sentiment. Rapeseed oil dropped significantly, dragging down palm oil and soybean oil. However, there are still positive factors in the palm oil producing areas, so the adjustment range may be limited, and the overall upward trend remains unchanged. - The far - month main contract of live pigs has broken through key levels and fallen sharply because of high inventory, increased planned shipments by group pig enterprises, and weak summer demand. - Cotton prices are rising steadily, supported by low inventory and imports [1]. 3.2 Variety Strategy Tracking 3.2.1 Palm Oil - The main 2601 contract of palm oil has corrected from high levels. The Zhengzhou Commodity Exchange's risk warning letter for rapeseed oil cooled market sentiment, causing palm oil to adjust. Malaysia's palm oil export data in August was strong, but production is expected to remain high. In the domestic market, high costs support the spot price, and the import profit window has opened recently. Technically, the contract is still in a strong position, and the recommended strategy is to hold light - position long orders [2]. 3.2.2 Soybean Oil - The main 2601 contract of soybean oil has adjusted after a continuous rise. The USDA's August supply - demand report was unexpectedly positive, but recent concentrated arrivals of imported soybeans and high - level oil mill crushing may limit the increase. Technically, it is still in a strong position, and the recommended strategy is to hold light - position long orders [4]. 3.2.3 Live Pigs - The main 2511 contract of live pigs has fallen sharply, entering a downward trend. Supply is abundant in August, and demand is weak due to high temperatures and alternative consumption. Technically, it is in a weak position, and the recommended strategy is to hold light - position short orders [6]. 3.2.4 Cotton - The main 2601 contract of cotton has continued to rise. Low commercial and industrial inventories and the delayed issuance of import quotas support the price. Although the downstream textile industry is in the off - season, the contract is technically strong, and the recommended strategy is to hold light - position long orders [9]. 3.2.5 Eggs - The main 2510 contract of eggs has first declined and then risen, showing a volatile market. High egg - laying hen inventory, continuous出库 of cold - storage eggs, and increased old - hen slaughter are the main factors. Technically, it is in a weak position, and the recommended strategy is to hold light - position short orders [10][12]. 3.2.6 Red Dates - The main 2601 contract of red dates is fluctuating at high levels. The market is concerned about the expected supply contraction of new - season red dates due to adverse weather. The upcoming Mid - Autumn and National Day stocking periods are expected to drive inventory reduction. Technically, it is in a strong position, and the recommended strategy is to hold long orders [13][15]. 3.2.7 White Sugar - The main 2601 contract of white sugar is rising in a volatile manner. Favorable domestic sales data and low industrial inventory support the price, but the expected concentrated arrival of imported sugar may suppress it. Technically, it is in a strong position, and the recommended strategy is to hold light - position long orders [16]. 3.2.8 Corn - The main 2511 contract of corn has encountered resistance in its rebound. Continuous auctions of imported corn by Sinograin, wheat substitution, and good growth of new corn limit its rebound space. Technically, it is in a weak position, and the recommended strategy is to hold short orders [18]. 3.2.9 Soybean Meal - The main 2601 contract of soybean meal is adjusting at high levels, but the upward trend remains. The USDA's August supply - demand report was positive, but there is profit - taking pressure. The expected tight supply of imported soybeans in the fourth quarter and rising import costs support the price. Technically, it is in a strong position, and the recommended strategy is to hold light - position long orders [21]. 3.2.10 Apples - The main 2510 contract of apples is adjusting at high levels. Low inventory supports the price. The procurement situation of early - maturing apples varies by region. Technically, it is in a strong position, and the recommended strategy is to place long orders on dips [22][24].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided in the content. 2. Core View of the Report The agricultural products sector shows diverse trends. Palm oil is expected to be strong due to positive supply - demand reports and strong exports. Eggs are under pressure from high supply. Pork prices are affected by supply - demand imbalance. Red dates are rising on production reduction expectations and holiday stocking. Other products like soybean oil, sugar, corn, etc. also have their own influencing factors and price trends [1]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs 3.1 Agricultural Products Sector Overview - Palm oil is strongly supported by positive monthly supply - demand reports from Malaysia and strong early - August exports, with a bullish outlook [1]. - Eggs have dropped significantly because of high laying - hen inventory, abundant supply, and the impact of cold - stored eggs on the market [1]. - Red dates continue to rise due to expected production reduction in the new season and the start of the Mid - Autumn and National Day stocking period [1]. - Pork prices have fallen after a rise because of accelerated supply from farmers and insufficient consumer demand [1]. 3.2 Variety Strategy Tracking 3.2.1 Palm Oil - The main 2509 contract has reached a new high this year. Malaysia's July palm oil production increased 7.09% to 181 million tons, exports rose 3.82% to 131 million tons, and inventory increased 4.02% to 211 million tons. August 1 - 10 exports increased 23.3% and 24% compared to the previous period. The market expects increased demand from India before the October Diwali [2]. - Technically, the contract is strong. The strategy is to hold a light long position, with support at 8940 and resistance at 9250 [4]. 3.2.2 Eggs - The main 2510 contract has fallen sharply. In July, the national laying - hen inventory was about 1.292 billion, a 1.73% month - on - month and 7.14% year - on - year increase. Cold - stored eggs are impacting the market [5]. - Technically, it is weak. The strategy is to hold a light short position, with support at 3160 and resistance at 3254 [5]. 3.2.3 Pork - The main 2511 contract first rose and then fell. Supply pressure remains high, with low demand in summer, increased fattening costs, and some pig diseases. Demand is limited, especially in the southern regions [7]. - Technically, the upward trend remains. The strategy is to hold a long position, with support at 14060 and resistance at 14325 [7]. 3.2.4 Red Dates - The main 2601 contract has continued to rise. New - season production is expected to be 56 - 62 million tons, a 20 - 25% year - on - year decrease. The Mid - Autumn and National Day stocking period has started [9]. - Technically, it is strong. The strategy is to hold a light long position, with support at 11400 and resistance at 11900 [9]. 3.2.5 Soybean Oil - The main 2601 contract has continued to rise, driven by the strength of palm oil. Uncertain US soybean purchases, soybean oil exports, and expected inventory reduction during the autumn and holidays support the price [11]. - Technically, it is strong. The strategy is to hold a light long position, with support at 8288 and resistance at 8466 [11]. 3.2.6 Sugar - The main 2509 contract has continued to decline. Imported sugar is expected to increase, and domestic sugar de - stocking may slow down. Beet sugar will start production in September, increasing supply [13]. - Technically, it is weak. The strategy is to hold a light short position, with support at 5550 and resistance at 5599 [13]. 3.2.7 Corn - The main 2509 contract is in a low - level oscillation. Continuous auctions of imported corn, wheat substitution, and low demand from downstream enterprises are pressuring the price. New - season corn has a good harvest outlook [15]. - Technically, it is weak. The strategy is to hold a short position, with support at 2245 and resistance at 2268 [15]. 3.2.8 Soybean Meal - The main 2601 contract has oscillated downward. Trump's call for China to buy more US soybeans may change the import situation. In July, domestic oil mills had a high operating rate, increasing soybean meal output and inventory [19]. - Technically, it is weak. The strategy is short - term trading, with support at 3034 and resistance at 3107 [19]. 3.2.9 Cotton - The main 2601 contract has oscillated upward. Xinjiang cotton has a good growth outlook, but current commercial inventory is low, and there are expectations of supply shortage before new - cotton listing. The textile industry is in a low season [20]. - Technically, it is strong. The strategy is to close short positions and open light long positions, with support at 13800 and resistance at 14000 [22]. 3.2.10 Apples - The main 2510 contract has continued to rise. As of August 6, the national apple cold - storage inventory was 533,900 tons and decreasing. New - season apple listing is delayed due to weather [23]. - Technically, it is strong. The strategy is to buy on dips, with support at 8050 and resistance at 8200 [23].

原油继续下行概率依然较大， 能化或等待原油加速指引 | 品种 | 中期结构 | 短期结构 | 小时周期策略 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 原油 | 震荡 | 偏空 | 空单持有 | | EB | 震荡 | 偏空 | 空单持有 | | PX | 震荡 | 偏空 | 空单持有 | | PTA | 震荡 | 偏空 | 空单持有 | | PP | 震荡 | 偏空 | 空单持有 | | 塑料 | 震荡 | 震荡 | 15 分钟空单止损 | | 甲醇 | 震荡 | 偏空 | 空单持有 | | EG | 震荡 | 偏空 | 空单持有 | | 橡胶 | 震荡 | 偏空 | 空单 15 分钟级别可先止盈 | | PVC | 偏多 | 偏空 | 空单持有 | | BR 橡胶 | 偏空 | 偏空 | 空单止盈 | | 纯碱 | 偏多 | 偏空 | 空单持有 | | 烧碱 | 偏空 | 偏空 | 寻试空信号 | 板块观点汇总 行情日评： （一）原油： 逻辑：9 月延续 54.7 万桶/的增产幅度，叠加美国近，旺季尾声 表需走弱且同比弱于往年，基本面供需走弱预期持续兑现。地缘上周 末美俄同意俄乌冲突停火谈 ...

I. Overall Information A. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. B. Core Viewpoints 1. This week, the lithium carbonate futures price soared for three consecutive days, with the main 2511 contract closing up 7.73% at 76,960 yuan/ton. The short - term market is still dominated by the expectation of lithium mine mining license compliance issues, and the futures price is strong [1]. 2. The polysilicon futures' main 2511 contract rose 2.42% to 50,790 yuan/ton this week. The short - term futures price may fluctuate, influenced by the anti - involution storage policy with no further details [8]. C. Strategy Recommendations 1. For lithium carbonate, the current futures price is strongly driven by expectations, with high short - term valuations. The market may fluctuate, and the risk for long positions is high. It is not recommended to chase long positions. However, if supply and demand evolve towards a production halt, the futures price may still rise [2]. 2. For polysilicon, with a meeting in Beijing next week, policy expectations may bring support. Short - term interval trading is recommended [9]. II. Lithium Carbonate Fundamental Analysis A. Supply 1. Last week, lithium production from salt lakes and mica decreased due to factors like Qinghai salt lake shutdown and some lithium salt plant maintenance, leading to a significant reduction in social inventory. This week, production increased, and inventory started to accumulate. The price increase was affected by supply - side news [3]. 2. There are concerns about the renewal of mining licenses for major mines in Jiangxi on August 9. If renewal fails, it may lead to a short - term shutdown, affecting an average monthly supply of 10,000 tons of lithium carbonate equivalent, but the domestic supply shortage may be lower than expected [4]. B. Demand 1. Power cell orders increased this month, and overseas energy storage demand is strong. The market is shifting from the off - season to the peak season, with downstream inventory preparation and increased inquiries. Battery production in July - August increased 2 - 3% month - on - month, and is expected to have a small increase in September - October [5]. 2. Cathode material factories made necessary purchases in July and had a stronger willingness to replenish inventory when the lithium price fell below 70,000 yuan. Currently, downstream inventory has increased. However, the terminal demand for new energy passenger vehicles slowed down in July, and the channel inventory is under pressure [5]. C. Inventory This week, lithium carbonate inventory continued to accumulate, with the domestic social inventory exceeding 140,000 tons, and the spot pressure remained [6]. III. Polysilicon Fundamental Analysis A. Supply 1. This week, polysilicon production increased significantly, and the monthly production is expected to rise substantially. Although one company in Xinjiang shut down, the overall supply still exceeds demand. The short - term weekly production may continue to increase, with the August production forecast at 125,000 tons [10][12]. 2. The market is trading the supply - side changes brought by the "anti - involution" policy. Some upstream quotes are high, but there are few spot transactions, and the spot price has not improved significantly [12]. B. Demand 1. After a brief profit repair, the production of silicon wafers increased. The short - term inventory of silicon wafers is relatively low, leading to price increases by some silicon wafer manufacturers. In August, the production of silicon wafers increased slightly compared to July [13]. 2. The price increase of silicon materials is being transmitted to silicon wafers and battery cells, but there is no information on component price increase transactions, indicating that the upstream price increase transmission is not smooth under weak terminal demand [13]. C. Inventory This week, polysilicon manufacturers' inventory started to accumulate. Since downstream has stocked up on raw materials, the short - term replenishment is weak, and the upstream is facing inventory pressure [14].