豆粕高位运行、白糖续升 一、农产品板块综述 豆粕先抑后扬，上涨趋势未变，美豆高位运行，成本端和通关扰 动等支撑豆粕价格，期价后市仍或偏强运行。白糖续升，技术强势支 撑价格走高，外盘原糖反弹以及国内成本支撑皆助推郑糖走高，后市 或仍有上行空间。棉花期价亦维持上升趋势，金三银四传统消费旺季 临近支撑棉价走高，后市预期仍有续升空间。 二、品种策略跟踪 （一）豆粕：高位运行，涨势未变 焦点关注：豆粕主力 2605 合约先抑后扬，日线收长下影线，高 位波动，涨势未变： 1.CBOT 大豆期价受出口需求乐观情绪提振在三个月高点附近运 行，成本支撑连粕高位运行。市场消息国内海关 25 天检验延长政策 预计将延续到 5 月份，通关时间延长或导致国内进口大豆供应阶段性 偏紧，节后油厂开机仍在恢复中。豆粕主力合约高位运行，主趋势上 涨延续。 数据来源：天富期货研询部、博易云 2.豆粕主力 2605 合约先抑后扬，期价继续在均线系统上运行， MACD 金叉后红柱扩大，技术强势，策略上继续逢低多单，支撑 2815 —2825。 （二）白糖：继续上涨 焦点关注：郑糖主力 2605 合约继续上涨，受到外盘反弹提振以 及制糖成本的支撑： ...

继续跟踪美伊谈判进展 行情综述： 油：原油依旧呈现地缘与基本面的分化态势，且短期逻辑完全聚 焦伊朗问题。短期地缘情绪继续推升原油上行，假期期间美伊两轮谈 判未有大幅进展，同时中东美军继续增大部署，美军中东军事力量已 达 03 年伊拉克以来最大规模，已完成中等规模空中打击行动的前置 准备，市场继续提前定价地缘冲突。但目前海外 polymarket 平台上 的 2 月底前打击伊朗概率依然不高，开战的高成本与高风险和协议达 成对中期选举的利好权衡依然在影响特朗普决策，对特朗普来说达成 协议依然是最能"赢"的选项，美军中东军事集结既是军事选项的前 置准备也是特朗普极限施压的一环。市场提前进行地缘溢价计价后原 油盘面短期走势将完全由伊朗地缘解决路径决定。协议解决与冲突发 生将形成急跌修复与急涨两种路径。目前谈判主动权在美，留给伊朗 的谈判筹码不多，关键仍在伊朗能否接受特朗普要价。抛开局势失控 的极端情景仍以等待降温高空机会为主。 化工：油化工中多数品种跟随原油走成本推动上涨，假期内自身 基本面变化有限，建议多空对冲配置，多基本面偏强品种（如 PX、 PTA、EB），空基本面偏弱品种（PP、EG、塑料）。与油相关性极低 ...

碳酸锂、多晶硅、工业硅日报 （一）碳酸锂 市场走势：今日碳酸锂整体窄幅震荡偏强运行，主力 2605 合约 较上一交易日收盘价上涨 1.37%，报 176040 元/吨。 核心逻辑：津巴布韦矿业部宣布立即暂停所有未加工矿物和锂精 矿的出口，该禁令将一直持续到另行通知，并且适用于目前所有正在 运输途中的矿物。该举措旨在清理第三方贸易商和走私行为，对符合 要求的矿山按照流程审批通过后可正常出口。不过短期津巴布韦出口 预计明显减少，影响国内 5 月后的锂矿进口量。 基本面延续紧平衡格局，下游锂电头部企业 3 月排产环比增长约 20%，创单月排产新高，对碳酸锂需求形成有力支撑。昨日公布的周 度产量和库存数据显示库存减少 2839 吨，产量增加 1638 吨，延续去 库格局。预计 3 月份市场仍是震荡偏强的格局。叠加目前市场情绪乐 观，锂价易涨难跌。 技术面分析：当前碳酸锂主力 2605 合约 5 分钟级别周期为绿线 红带绿阶梯。隔夜 2 小时级别周期为红色阶梯线偏强，多空分水位 国别 进口量(万吨) 澳大利亚 381.7 津巴布韦 120.4 尼日利亚 103.1 南非 92.3 巴西 33.4 马里 22.3 加拿大 ...

棕榈油下挫、白糖反弹 一、农产品板块综述 棕榈油下跌，因产地马棕油出口疲弱，国内棕油库存偏高，压制 期价走低，连棕油主力合约回归此前下行主趋势，后市偏弱运行。白 糖反弹，受到美原糖走高以及国内制糖成本支撑，郑糖主力合约技术 转强，后市或偏强波动。豆粕续升，美豆强势以及国内进口大豆通关 消息扰动支撑豆粕上涨，后市将继续偏强运行。 二、品种策略跟踪 （一）棕榈油：大幅下跌 数据来源：天富期货研询部、博易云 （三）棉花：冲高回落 焦点关注：棉花主力 2605 合约冲高回落，盘中触及新高，涨势 未变，受到国内需求增长预期的提振： 焦点关注：棕榈油主力 2605 合约反弹受阻，大幅下跌，回归此 前下行主趋势，受到马棕油出口疲弱及国内库存偏高影响： 1.马棕油出口疲弱，船运检验机构的高频数据显示，马来西亚 2 月前 25 天棕榈油出口环比下滑 12.1%—16.1%，需求疲软令马棕油承 压下行。国内棕榈油库存数据偏高，Mysteel 数据显示，截至 2 月 20 日国内棕榈油库存 70.64 万吨，同比增 64.16%，大连棕榈油承压走 低。 2. 棕榈油主力 2605 合约反弹乏力，掉头下行，回归此前下行主 趋势，期价 ...

碳酸锂、多晶硅、工业硅日报 （一）碳酸锂 市场走势：今日碳酸锂早盘大幅跳空高开后转为震荡运行，午后 涨幅有所收窄，主力 2605 合约较上一交易日收盘价上涨 4.31%，报 173660 元/吨。 核心逻辑： 昨日盘后消息：津巴布韦矿业部在一份声明中宣布，立即暂停所 有未加工矿物和锂精矿的出口，该禁令将一直持续到另行通知，并且 适用于目前所有正在运输途中的矿物。 此前在 2025 年 6 月，津巴布韦官方曾宣布计划从 2027 年 1 月起 全面禁止锂精矿出口，旨在促进各矿企在津巴布韦国内建立加工和精 炼设施，推动本地矿业加工发展。此次将锂精矿出口禁令提前至立即 生效，打破了市场预期。 另外，今日下午公布周度产量和库存数据显示库存减少 2839 吨， 产量增加 1638 吨，延续去库格局。 技术面分析：当前碳酸锂主力 2605 合约 5 分钟级别周期为绿线 蓝带绿阶梯。隔夜 2 小时级别周期为红色阶梯线偏强，多空分水位 148660 元/吨。 策略建议：碳酸锂作为高弹性品种，在现阶段基本面本偏强情况 下，利多消息易点燃市场情绪，短期碳酸锂基本面支撑强劲，观点依 旧是利用回调寻找低多机会，不直接追涨。日内交易依 ...

关注今日美伊日内瓦谈判结果 行情综述： 油：原油依旧呈现地缘与基本面的分化态势，且短期逻辑完全聚 焦伊朗问题。短期地缘情绪继续推升原油上行，假期期间美伊两轮谈 判未有大幅进展，同时中东美军继续增大部署，美军中东军事力量已 达 03 年伊拉克以来最大规模，已完成中等规模空中打击行动的前置 准备，市场继续提前定价地缘冲突。但目前海外 polymarket 平台上 的 2 月底前打击伊朗概率依然不高，开战的高成本与高风险和协议达 成对中期选举的利好权衡依然在影响特朗普决策，对特朗普来说达成 协议依然是最能"赢"的选项，美军中东军事集结既是军事选项的前 置准备也是特朗普极限施压的一环。市场提前进行地缘溢价计价后原 油盘面短期走势将完全由伊朗地缘解决路径决定。协议解决与冲突发 生将形成急跌修复与急涨两种路径。目前谈判主动权在美，留给伊朗 的谈判筹码不多，关键仍在伊朗能否接受特朗普要价。抛开局势失控 的极端情景仍以等待降温高空机会为主。 数据来源：天富期货研询部、文华财经 图 1.2：原油 2604 小时图 数据来源：天富期货研询部、文华财经 受地缘情绪从原油传导至丁二烯带来成本端向上驱动，短期需关注伊 朗问题发展路径。 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content 2. Core View of the Report - After the Spring Festival holiday, the cotton futures price soared, the hog price plummeted, the palm oil rebounded at a low level but the rebound space was limited, and the soybean meal adjusted at a high level. The sugar rebounded weakly, and the eggs showed a pattern of near - strong and far - weak [1] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Agricultural Product Sector Overview - After the Spring Festival, the Zhengzhou cotton main contract soared above 15,000, and the market will be strong in the future. The hog price dropped sharply due to strong supply and weak demand, and the market will be weak. The palm oil rebounded at a low level, but the decline has not been reversed, and the market may fluctuate weakly [1] 3.2 Variety Strategy Tracking 3.2.1 Cotton - The main 2605 contract of cotton soared after the festival, driven by the rebound of US cotton and the expected growth of domestic demand. The planting area of Xinjiang cotton in 2026 is expected to decline, and the "Golden March and Silver April" consumption season is coming. The long positions of the main 2605 contract increased significantly, breaking through 15,000. The strategy is to go long at a low position with a light position, with support at 15,000 - 15,100 [2] 3.2.2 Hog - The main 2605 contract of hog gapped down and fell sharply on the first trading day after the Spring Festival due to strong supply and weak demand. After the festival, the supply increased and the demand entered the off - season. The contract price hit a new low, and the strategy is to short at a high position, with resistance at 11,405 - 11,465 [3] 3.2.3 Soybean Meal - The main 2605 contract of soybean meal fell from a high level due to profit - taking by long positions and the adjustment of the US soybean in the external market. The supply pressure of soybean meal still exists, and the contract price encountered resistance at the upper edge of the trading range of 2700 - 2800. The strategy is to close long positions and wait for opportunities [5] 3.2.4 Palm Oil - The main 2605 contract of palm oil rebounded at a low level, driven by the rebound of Malaysian palm oil and the strength of US soybean oil during the festival. However, the export data of Malaysian palm oil is weak, and the domestic inventory is high. The contract price is in a rebound within a downward trend, and the strategy is to short at a high position with a light position [8] 3.2.5 Sugar - The main 2605 contract of Zhengzhou sugar rebounded after the festival, driven by the rebound of the international raw sugar price. However, the new sugar listing pressure still exists, and the contract price rebounded weakly. The strategy is to close long positions and conduct short - term trading [11] 3.2.6 Eggs - Each contract of eggs shows a pattern of near - strong and far - weak. The main 2604 contract continued to rise, but the increase was limited due to the decline in post - festival consumption. The strategy is to reduce long positions [12][14]

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The price of lithium carbonate futures is expected to continue its strong trend, while the price of polysilicon futures may continue to be weak, and industrial silicon futures are expected to continue to fluctuate [1][5][14]. Summary by Related Catalogs Lithium Carbonate - **Market Trend**: The price of the main 2605 contract of lithium carbonate futures rose 7.52% from the previous trading day's closing price, reaching 164,120 yuan/ton [1]. - **Core Logic**: After the Spring Festival, lithium carbonate continued its strength. The supply decreased seasonally, with domestic production in February decreasing by 8.2% month-on-month and new capacity release hindered. The demand is expected to be good, with lithium battery production in March expected to increase by 15 - 20% month-on-month and energy storage expected to be at full production. Social inventory is low and continuously decreasing [1]. - **Technical Analysis**: In the morning, lithium carbonate gapped up and then oscillated. According to the "Three - Line Resonance Method", there was an opportunity to enter the market at 14:05, with a profit - loss ratio of 1:2. The 5 - minute cycle of the main 2605 contract is red line, red band, and red ladder, and the 2 - hour cycle overnight is a strong red ladder line, with the long - short dividing water level at 137,000 yuan/ton [1]. - **Strategy Suggestion**: Maintain the idea of buying on dips. Use the "First K Breakthrough Method" or "Three - Line Resonance Method" for intraday trading, set stop - losses, and refer to the 8:30 morning live broadcast [2]. - **Key Concerns**: The acceptance of cell price increases by downstream and energy storage - related policy orientations [3]. Polysilicon - **Market Trend**: The price of the main 2605 contract of polysilicon futures fell 4.67% from the previous trading day's closing price, reaching 47,000 yuan/ton [5]. - **Core Logic**: During the Spring Festival, market activity was low, polysilicon manufacturers maintained a low operating rate, but inventory was difficult to reduce. Downstream has excessive inventory in the short term, with low purchasing urgency and low willingness to accept high prices. In the short term, there is a game between upstream and downstream, and the subsequent transaction price is likely to continue to decline [5]. - **Technical Analysis**: Polysilicon increased positions and declined today, with an afternoon plunge to a new recent closing low. According to the "Three - Line Resonance Method", there was an opportunity to enter the market at 13:45, with a good profit - loss ratio. The 5 - minute cycle of the 2605 contract is green line, blue band, and green ladder, and the 2 - hour cycle overnight is a weak green ladder line, with the long - short dividing water level at 49,370 yuan/ton [9]. - **Strategy Suggestion**: It may continue to be weak in the short term, and pay attention to the support level of 45,000 yuan/ton [9]. Industrial Silicon - **Market Trend**: The price of the 2605 contract of industrial silicon futures oscillated, rising 0.18% from the previous trading day's closing price, reaching 8,410 yuan/ton [14]. - **Core Logic**: In terms of fundamentals, on the supply side, due to production cuts by large factories in Xinjiang and marginal production cuts in Inner Mongolia and Sichuan, and fewer production days, the output of industrial silicon in February is expected to decline by more than 27% month - on - month. On the demand side, the demand for downstream silicone, polysilicon, and aluminum - silicon alloy has decreased to varying degrees. In February, supply and demand have contracted simultaneously, and there is no strong driving force without new variables [14]. - **Technical Analysis**: Industrial silicon increased positions to some extent today. The 5 - minute cycle of the 2605 contract is red line, blue band, and green ladder, and the 2 - hour cycle overnight is a weak green ladder line, approaching the long - short dividing water level of 8,450 yuan/ton [14]. - **Strategy Suggestion**: It is expected to continue to oscillate. Intraday operations can refer to the Band Winner indicator in combination with the 8:30 morning live broadcast [14]. - **Key Concerns**: The resumption of production of large factories in Xinjiang [15].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The short - term rhythm of the market is dominated by the geopolitical evolution path in Iran. The crude oil market shows a divergence between geopolitics and fundamentals, and its short - term trend is determined by the resolution path of the Iranian geopolitical issue. For the chemical industry, most oil - chemical varieties follow the cost - driven rise of crude oil, and different trading strategies are recommended for different products [2][3] 3. Summary by Directory Crude Oil - Logic: Crude oil shows a divergence between geopolitics and fundamentals, with short - term logic focused on the Iran issue. Geopolitical sentiment drives up prices. The probability of a US strike on Iran before the end of February is low. The market's short - term trend depends on the resolution of the Iranian issue. It is advisable to wait for a cooling - off period for short - selling opportunities [2][5] - Technical Analysis: The daily - line shows a medium - term downward structure, and the hourly - line shows a short - term upward structure. After a gap - up opening to repair the overseas market gains, it stands above the 490 pressure level, and the short - term structure turns bullish. Temporarily wait and see in the hourly cycle, and the small - position 04P440 options held before the holiday can still be retained [5] Styrene (EB) - Logic: Domestic production is increasing under high profits, and supply may return more than expected. The cost is driven up by the geopolitical sentiment transmitted from crude oil to butadiene. The development path of the Iran issue needs to be monitored [7][10] - Technical Analysis: The hourly - line shows a short - term downward structure. It rebounds with a small increase in positions today, and the short - term pressure above is at the 7850 level. Temporarily wait and see in the hourly cycle and pay attention to the pressure level [10] Pure Benzene - Logic: Port inventories are still high, domestic production rates are rising rapidly, and downstream production is performing well. The cost is driven up by the geopolitical sentiment transmitted from crude oil to butadiene. The development path of the Iran issue needs to be monitored [11] - Technical Analysis: The hourly - line shows a short - term downward structure. It rebounds with a decrease in positions today but fails to break through the short - term pressure at the 6295 level. Temporarily wait and see in the hourly cycle and pay attention to the pressure level [11] Rubber - Logic: The domestic rubber market is in the off - season, and there are no major contradictions in the short - term. The Tokyo rubber market and Thai spot prices rose slightly during the holiday. The rise in crude oil drives up synthetic rubber prices, and natural rubber follows suit [15] - Technical Analysis: The daily - line shows a medium - term upward structure, and the hourly - line shows an upward structure. It rises with an increase in positions today, and the short - term support below is at the 16250 level. Wait and see in the hourly cycle [15] Synthetic Rubber - Logic: The profit of downstream tire manufacturers is poor, and the fundamental pressure on synthetic rubber is expected to increase. However, the cost is driven up by the geopolitical sentiment transmitted from crude oil to butadiene, showing a divergence between fundamentals and geopolitics. It has a relatively high correlation with crude oil [17] - Technical Analysis: The daily - line shows a medium - term upward structure, and the hourly - line shows a short - term downward structure. It rises with an increase in positions today and tests the short - term pressure at the 13220 level (04 contract). Pay attention to short - selling signals after the rebound in the hourly cycle [17] PX - Logic: The fundamentals changed little during the holiday. Supply is stable, polyester terminal production is at a low level, and the slow resumption of work before the Lantern Festival suppresses short - term demand. The cost is driven up by the Iran issue pushing up crude oil [21] - Technical Analysis: The daily - line shows a medium - term upward structure, and the hourly - line shows a short - term oscillating structure. It rises with an increase in positions today but remains within the wide range of 7050 - 7500 in the hourly - line. Wait and see at the hourly level [21] PTA - Logic: The fundamentals changed little during the holiday. Supply is stable, terminal production is at a low level, and the slow resumption of work before the Lantern Festival suppresses short - term demand. The cost is driven up by the Iran issue pushing up crude oil [24] - Technical Analysis: The daily - line shows a medium - term upward structure, and the hourly - line shows a short - term upward structure. It rises with an increase in positions today, and the short - term support below is at the 5160 level. Wait and see in the hourly cycle [24] PP - Logic: Downstream terminals have not fully recovered. The high supply pressure of olefins remains. The cost disturbance from crude oil becomes the short - term trading focus. Once the geopolitical situation cools down, olefins will face real - world pressure [26] - Technical Analysis: The hourly - line short - term downward structure is being tested. It rises with an increase in positions today and tests the short - term pressure at the 6730 - 6740 level. Temporarily wait and see in the hourly cycle, and pay attention to whether the pressure level can effectively suppress and whether there are short - selling signals [28] Methanol - Logic: Methanol shows a divergence between fundamentals and geopolitics. After the restart of Iranian methanol plants in spring, the expected high import pressure due to the return of Iranian methanol under high port inventories exists. The geopolitical sentiment during the holiday and seasonal de - stocking drive up prices, and the upside space depends on the resolution of the Iranian geopolitical issue [30] - Technical Analysis: The daily - line shows a medium - term downward structure, and the short - term downward structure is being tested. It rebounds with an increase in positions today and tests the short - term pressure at the 2285 level. Temporarily wait and see in the hourly cycle, and pay attention to whether the pressure level can effectively suppress and whether there are short - selling signals [30] Ethylene Glycol (EG) - Logic: Supply is at a high level, downstream production is reducing, and there is a significant inventory build - up during the Spring Festival. The slow resumption of work before the Lantern Festival suppresses short - term demand. The high inventory and high premium pressure of the 05 contract are difficult to change, and the probability of a downward trend after the delivery regression logic starts is greater [32] - Technical Analysis: The daily - line shows a medium - term downward structure, and the hourly - line shows a short - term downward structure. It rises with an increase in positions today and tests the pressure at the 3780 - 3800 level. Hold short positions in the hourly cycle, and pay attention to whether the pressure level can effectively suppress and whether there are short - selling signals [32] Plastic - Logic: Downstream terminals have not fully recovered. The high supply pressure of olefins remains. The cost disturbance from crude oil becomes the short - term trading focus. Once the geopolitical situation cools down, olefins will face real - world pressure [36] - Technical Analysis: The daily - line shows a medium - term downward structure, and the hourly - line shows a downward structure. It rises with a decrease in positions today and tests the pressure at the 6830 level. Hold short positions in the hourly cycle, and pay attention to whether the pressure level can effectively suppress and whether there are short - selling signals [36] Soda Ash - Logic: New production capacity of soda ash is ramping up during the holiday, bringing higher supply pressure. It is in a pattern of increasing supply and decreasing demand, and the post - holiday replenishment demand is weak. The 05 contract is likely to see a downward correction of the premium [38] - Technical Analysis: The hourly - line shows a short - term downward structure. It rebounds after reaching a low point today, and the short - term pressure above is in the 1180 - 1190 range. Hold short positions in the hourly cycle and set the stop - profit at the 1190 level [38][40] PVC - Logic: Domestic PVC is mainly produced by the calcium carbide method (80%), with a low correlation with oil. It is in a pattern of increasing supply, decreasing demand, and high inventory. The previous export - tax - rebate - related bullish logic has ended, and it returns to the medium - term oversupply suppression [41] - Technical Analysis: The daily - line shows a medium - term upward structure, and the hourly - line structure is not clear. It rebounds and tests the pressure at the 5040 level today but fails to break through, with a reversal signal at the end. There is an opportunity to try short - selling in the hourly cycle, with the stop - loss set at the 5040 level [41]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content 2. Report's Core View - The lithium carbonate futures market shows a strong bullish pattern, with a tight balance between supply and demand. The polysilicon market is expected to oscillate, and the industrial silicon market is expected to be weak with oscillations [1][6][15] 3. Summary by Related Catalogs 3.1 Lithium Carbonate - **Market Trend**: The lithium carbonate futures price opened significantly higher and then oscillated. The main 2605 contract rose 3.07% to 137,000 yuan/ton compared to the previous trading day's closing price [1] - **Core Logic**: The demand side may see a surge in export orders due to the reduction of lithium battery export tax rebates, and the production schedule of the materials sector in March has a year - on - year growth rate generally greater than 50%. The supply side will see a record - high import volume in March in China corresponding to the large increase in Chile's lithium salt exports in January, but this is a temporary increase. The weekly production this week decreased by 825 tons, and the inventory decreased by 2,019 tons compared to last week. The tight balance between supply and demand remains unchanged [1] - **Technical Analysis**: The 5 - minute cycle of the main 2605 contract is a green line, red band, and green ladder. The 2 - hour cycle overnight shows a weak green ladder line, with the long - short equilibrium level at 148,100 yuan/ton [1] - **Strategy Suggestion**: Based on the judgment of the lithium carbonate price's strong oscillation, one can lightly buy when the price drops to 130,000 yuan/ton. Pay close attention to market dynamics and set stop - loss points. For intraday trading, use the "First K Breakthrough Method" or "Three - Line Resonance Method" to find entry points [2] - **Concerns**: Whether there is regulatory upgrade, the resumption progress of Jiaxiawo, and the production schedule on the demand side [3] 3.2 Polysilicon - **Market Trend**: The polysilicon futures oscillated narrowly. The main 2605 contract rose 0.17% to 49,370 yuan/ton compared to the previous trading day's closing price [6] - **Core Logic**: The trading volume is light, lacking upward and downward drivers. It is expected to oscillate in the range of (48,000, 51,000). Affected by the shutdown of leading enterprises, the polysilicon production schedule in February 2026 was 79,500 tons, a 14.97% month - on - month decrease. The inventory increased slightly, and the market orders were limited. The current production is insufficient to cover short - term shipments, leading to an increase in inventory. The spot price weakened slightly, with the N - type re - feed material quoted at 48.2 - 59 yuan/kg [6][9] - **Technical Analysis**: The 5 - minute cycle of the 2605 contract is a green line, blue band, and green ladder. The 2 - hour cycle overnight shows a strong red ladder line, with the long - short equilibrium level at 47,050 yuan/ton [9] - **Strategy Suggestion**: It may continue to oscillate in the range of (48,000, 51,000). Pay attention to the latest quotes of silicon material enterprises to downstream and whether trading restrictions can be gradually lifted [9] 3.3 Industrial Silicon - **Market Trend**: The industrial silicon futures oscillated. The 2605 contract fell 0.59% to 8,450 yuan/ton compared to the previous trading day's closing price [15] - **Core Logic**: In the past three days, the industrial silicon has continuously increased positions and declined significantly, and the spot price has also declined. On the supply side, large factories in the northwest region have shut down, and the operation in the southwest region has remained at a low level, resulting in a tightened supply. As of February 5, the number of operating furnaces of metallic silicon in China was 178, with an overall operating rate of 22.36%, a decrease of 32 compared to last week. On the demand side, approaching the Spring Festival, most downstream silicon enterprises are on holiday, and the procurement willingness is low except for rigid - demand procurement. The polysilicon production schedule in February was 79,500 tons, a 14.97% month - on - month decrease. The operating rates of the organic silicon and aluminum alloy markets remained stable, and the overall downstream demand is expected to further narrow. The total inventory of industrial silicon is at a five - year high. It is expected to oscillate weakly, and attention should be paid to the support level of 8,400 yuan/ton [15] - **Technical Analysis**: The industrial silicon has continued to increase positions significantly. The 5 - minute cycle of the 2605 contract is a green line, green band, and green ladder. The 2 - hour cycle overnight shows a weak green ladder line, with the long - short equilibrium level at 8,850 yuan/ton [15] - **Strategy Suggestion**: It is expected to oscillate weakly. If it breaks through 8,400 yuan/ton downward, it may turn to a weak operation. For intraday trading, one can refer to the Band Winner indicator in combination with the 8:30 morning live broadcast [15]