（一）碳酸锂 市场走势：今日碳酸锂期货早盘强势上涨，随后震荡运行，主力 2605 合约较上一交易日收盘价上涨 3.16%，报 142300 元/吨。 核心逻辑： 1、地缘与市场情绪： ①委内瑞拉局势提升了南美洲关键资源的政治风险和安全溢价， 在一定程度上影响了市场情绪，带动了整体有色金属板块； ②马里安全形势引发锂矿供应稳定性担忧，叠加 2026 年碳酸锂 紧平衡态势，易推动期价上涨。 2、下游需求提振： 碳酸锂、工业硅、多晶硅日报 ①下游磷酸铁锂企业涨价落地，反映了真实需求水平，并且要求 碳酸锂结算跟随期货价格，大幅抬高价格重心； ②1 月部分正极材料头部企业排产上修（磷酸铁锂幅度较大）， 支撑碳酸锂需求。 3、政策支持： ①2026 年汽车以旧换新政策整体方向仍支持新能源汽车发展， 对新能源汽车依旧存拉动作用； ②1 月 5 日国务院印发《固体废物综合治理行动计划》，其中提 到原则上不再批准建设无自建矿山、无配套尾矿利用处置设施的选矿 项目。这一政策或对枧下窝矿的复产进度造成影响，引发市场对锂资 源供给收紧的担忧。 不过市场并非全无利空因素： 1、下游需求方面，2026 年 1 月头部正极材料厂集中检修， ...

原油回归过剩逻辑驱动， 化工品后续仍是分化对待。 行情综述： 油：美对委袭击对原油影响有限，委内瑞拉早已沦为原油边缘生 产国，约 1%的产量占比与 50-80 万桶/日的日均出口对全球原油供给 影响不大，并且委内瑞拉也没有 6 月以伊冲突中霍尔木兹海峡作为全 球原油关键航道的地理条件。美对委袭击事件落地后市场对加勒比地 缘担忧的靴子落地，或回归一季度过剩压力带来的下行驱动。 数据来源：天富期货研询部、文华财经 图 1.2：原油 2602 小时图 图 1.1：原油日线图 （二）沥青： 逻辑：美国袭击委内瑞拉后国内沥青原料受实质性影响，目前委 内瑞拉原油出口瘫痪后作为主要国内沥青原料占比超 4 成的委内瑞 拉马瑞重油面临实质断供，若委原油出口迟迟未恢复国内炼厂后续面 临减产停工，原料替代（加拿大重油、中东重油）涉及时间滞后与成 本上移，沥青盘面面临原料断供下供应端减少与成本提升的双重向上 驱动。 化工：美国袭击委内瑞拉后国内沥青原料受实质性影响出现重大 逻辑影响，沥青盘面面临原料断供下供应端减少与成本提升的双重向 上驱动。沥青可作为当下的重点多头品种。而前期龙头品种 PX-PTA 在下游终端接受度较低带来短期负反 ...

二、品种策略跟踪 （一）棉花：继续大涨 焦点关注：棉花主力 2605 合约继续大涨，向上突破 15000 整数 关位，期价受到远期供应收缩预期以及下游需求较强的支撑： 棉花、豆粕劲升 一、农产品板块综述 棉花继续大涨突破万五整数关位，2026 年新疆播种面积下降预 期以及下游需求偏强支撑棉价上涨，强势延续。豆粕亦劲升，商品市 场偏多气氛以及豆粕库存环比下降提振期价走高，近期偏强，关注后 续油厂压榨量及现货成交情况。 1. 新疆 2026 年棉花种植面积下降的预期持续升温，市场对未来 棉花供应可能减少的担忧情绪加剧，引发市场持续炒作。而新棉销售 率同比大幅增加，显示需求显著增强。下游纺织企业接单稳定，中高 支纱线需求强劲，新疆纺企开机率长时间稳定在 9 成以上。中美经贸 关系改善后，市场对纺织服装出口有乐观预期。棉花多头持续增仓推 动期价大涨。 2.棉花期货主力 2605 合约高位大涨，期价向上突破 15000 整数 关位，期价远离均线系统之上扩涨，延续强势特征，策略上继续逢低 轻仓多单，支撑 14730—14840。 （二）豆粕：大幅上涨 焦点关注：豆粕主力 2605 合约大幅上涨，刷新一个月新高，期 价商品 ...

碳酸锂、工业硅、多晶硅日报 （一）碳酸锂 市场走势：今日碳酸锂期货强势涨停，主力 2605 合约较上一交 易日收盘价上涨 6.12%，报 137940 元/吨。 核心逻辑： ①委内瑞拉局势提升了南美洲关键资源的政治风险和安全溢价， 在一定程度上影响了市场情绪，带动了整体有色金属板块； ②马里安全形势引发锂矿供应稳定性担忧，叠加 2026 年碳酸锂 紧平衡态势，易推动期价上涨。 3、下游需求提振： ①下游磷酸铁锂企业涨价落地，反映了真实需求水平，并且要求 碳酸锂结算跟随期货价格，大幅抬高价格重心； ②1 月部分正极材料头部企业排产上修（磷酸铁锂幅度较大）， 支撑碳酸锂需求。 1、政策支持： ①2026 年汽车以旧换新政策整体方向仍支持新能源汽车发展， 对新能源汽车依旧存拉动作用； ②1 月 5 日国务院印发《固体废物综合治理行动计划》，其中提 到原则上不再批准建设无自建矿山、无配套尾矿利用处置设施的选矿 项目。这一政策或对枧下窝矿的复产进度造成影响，引发市场对锂资 源供给收紧的担忧。 2、地缘与市场情绪： 4、库存因素： 2025 年 8 月至年末连续 20 周去库，上下游库存偏低，存在补库 需求，限制价格下行 ...

对伊威胁叠加市场偏暖情绪下能化板块今 日偏强，但后续仍建议品种间分化对待。 行情综述： 油：美对委袭击对原油影响有限，委内瑞拉早已沦为原油边缘生 产国，约 1%的产量占比与 50-80 万桶/日的日均出口对全球原油供给 影响不大，并且委内瑞拉也没有 6 月以伊冲突中霍尔木兹海峡作为全 球原油关键航道的地理条件。美对委袭击事件落地后市场对加勒比地 缘担忧的靴子落地，或回归一季度过剩压力带来的下行驱动。 化工：美国袭击委内瑞拉后国内沥青原料受实质性影响出现重大 逻辑影响，沥青盘面面临原料断供下供应端减少与成本提升的双重向 上驱动。沥青可作为当下的重点多头品种。而前期龙头品种 PX-PTA 在下游终端接受度较低带来短期负反馈下开启日线级别回调，短期观 望等待回调结束后下一阶段多单进场机会。苯乙烯面临全产业链高库 存压力，下游 3S 利润快速下降，一、二月累库速率或超预期，若近 期出口商谈消息带来的 1 月出口增量被证伪，那么苯乙烯未来极高的 港口库存带来的胀库压力叠加终端需求疲软下游的负反馈螺旋将驱 动苯乙烯价格回落。可作为当前阶段重点关注的空头品种。 （一）原油： 逻辑：美对委袭击对原油影响有限，委内瑞拉早已沦为 ...

二、品种策略跟踪 （一）棉花：劲升 棉花劲升、生猪上涨 一、农产品板块综述 棉花劲升创新高，2026 年新疆播种面积下降预期以及下游需求 偏强支撑棉价上涨。生猪亦回升，1 月生猪出栏计划减少以及传统需 求旺季支撑猪价上扬。 焦点关注：棉花主力 2605 合约再度劲升创新高，继续受到远期 供应收缩预期以及下游需求较强的支撑： 1.新疆 2026 年棉花播种面积下降预期持续发酵，引发市场对远 期供给收缩的担忧升温，成为多头持续炒作题材。而新棉上市后销售 率同比大幅增加，显示需求显著增强。下游纺织企业接单稳定，中高 支纱线需求强劲，纺企开工率较高，尤其是新疆企业开机率长时间稳 定在 9 成以上。中美经贸关系改善后，市场对纺织品服装出口有乐观 预期。而棉花进口规模下降。棉花期价再度高位大涨，走势强劲。 2.棉花期货主力 2605 合约高位大涨创新高，期价在均线系统之 上运行，强势延续，策略上继续逢低轻仓多单，支撑 14600—14650。 （二）生猪：强劲回升 焦点关注：生猪主力 2603 合约调整之后获得支撑，强劲回升， 受到供应端出栏减少和需求旺季的提振： 1.经过 2025 年 12 月高峰出栏之后，1 月份养 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content 2. Core View of the Report - Short - term crude oil fluctuates driven by geopolitics, with high trading difficulty and few participation opportunities. The PX - PTA, a leading chemical variety, may peak and start to correct, and the chemical industry will face a structurally differentiated market in the medium term after the correction [2]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Crude Oil - Logic: Geopolitics is the main short - term driver. Recent events such as the US seizing Venezuelan oil tankers, the受阻 of the Russia - Ukraine peace plan, and the possibility of Israel attacking Iran increase geopolitical uncertainties, making trading difficult [3]. - Technical Analysis: The daily - level shows a medium - term downward structure, and the hourly - level shows a short - term oscillatory structure. The strategy is to wait and see in the hourly cycle [4]. Chemicals (1) Asphalt - Logic: The fundamentals maintain a pattern of both weak supply and demand. With the escalation of the US - Venezuela situation, there is a risk of raw material supply disruption. It can be pre - arranged before the technical structure's upward trend is broken [8]. - Technical Analysis: The hourly - level shows a short - term upward structure. It reached a short - term high today but failed to break through due to lack of volume. The short - term support below has moved up to 2965. The strategy is to take half - profit on long positions before the holiday, and set the remaining half - position's stop - profit at 2965 [8]. (2) Styrene - Logic: The port inventory is accumulating, reaching the highest in five years, and the total industrial chain inventory is at a historical high. The demand is weak in the off - season, and there is still pressure of over - inventory in January and February [10]. - Technical Analysis: The hourly - level shows a short - term upward structure. It reached a short - term high today with an unobvious breakthrough and insufficient volume. The short - term support is at 6700. The strategy is to take profit on the remaining half of long positions [10][12]. (3) Rubber - Logic: The spot price of Thai cup lump rubber is firm, and some funds flow into low - priced products due to a warm macro - sentiment, driving the price up. However, the downstream tire inventory is over - stocked, and the domestic rubber inventory is accumulating seasonally, reaching a year - on - year high. It still faces great pressure after the short - term rise [13]. - Technical Analysis: The daily - level shows a medium - term oscillatory structure, and the hourly - level shows a short - term upward structure but should be treated as oscillatory. It oscillated today, and the short - term support is at 15520. The strategy is to wait and see in the hourly cycle [13]. (4) Synthetic Rubber - Logic: The short - term price of the raw material butadiene is firm due to inventory reduction, and some funds flow into low - priced products due to a warm macro - sentiment, driving the price up. However, high - level production of butadiene will lead to high supply pressure later [16]. - Technical Analysis: The daily - level shows a medium - term upward structure, and the hourly - level shows a short - term upward structure. It oscillated today without changing the short - term upward structure. The short - term support is at 11200. The strategy is to hold long positions in the hourly cycle and set the stop - profit at 11200 [16]. (5) PX - Logic: The fundamentals of PX - PTA are strong in both reality and expectation. Funds have flowed in since last week. However, the short - term increase is too large, the basis has widened rapidly, and the downstream polyester's acceptance of high prices is low. It faces a corrective market [20]. - Technical Analysis: The hourly - level shows a short - term upward structure. It oscillated today. After a large reduction in positions yesterday, it may have reached a short - term peak, but confirmation is needed. The hourly - level support is at 7260. The strategy is to hold the remaining half - position of long positions with the stop - profit at 7260, and exit if the hourly - line closes below this level [20][23]. (6) PTA - Logic: Similar to PX, the fundamentals of PX - PTA are strong in both reality and expectation. Funds have flowed in since last week. However, the short - term increase is too large, the basis has widened rapidly, and the downstream polyester's acceptance of high prices is low. It faces a corrective market [24]. - Technical Analysis: The hourly - level shows a short - term upward structure. It oscillated today. After a large reduction in positions, it may have reached a short - term peak, but confirmation is needed. The hourly - level support is at 5070. The strategy is to hold the remaining half - position of long positions with the stop - profit at 5070, and exit if the hourly - line closes below this level [24]. (7) PP - Logic: The fundamentals of the olefin industry chain where PP - plastics belong are still weak, with new production capacity pressure and the off - season of demand. After the main contract change, the impact of fundamental reality on the market weakens. It is not advisable to chase short positions excessively. Pay attention to expected trading and the possibility of anti - involution policies [26]. - Technical Analysis: The hourly - level shows a short - term upward structure. It increased in volume and broke through the short - term pressure at 6315 today, turning the hourly - level structure to long. The short - term support below is at 6255. The strategy is to wait and see in the hourly cycle [26]. (8) Methanol - Logic: The port inventory is continuously decreasing, but the downstream MTO is under maintenance. The inventory pressure is improved, but the demand expectation is weak. The overall fundamental driving force is not strong. Pay attention to expected trading and the possibility of anti - involution policies [29]. - Technical Analysis: The daily - level shows a medium - term downward structure, and the hourly - level shows a short - term upward structure. It increased in volume and broke through today, making the short - term structure upward again. The short - term support is at 2120. The strategy is to wait and see in the hourly cycle [29]. (9) PVC - Logic: Although the total PVC inventory is still at a historical high year - on - year, due to large profit losses and low chlor - alkali profits, the PVC production and output have declined for three consecutive weeks. After entering the pattern of both weak supply and demand, the total inventory has also decreased for three consecutive weeks, reducing the supply pressure in the short term. The expectation of spring maintenance in the first quarter and the anti - involution sentiment may drive the market up in the short term [33]. - Technical Analysis: The daily - level shows a medium - term downward structure, and the hourly - level shows a short - term upward structure. It increased in price with a reduction in positions today, but the volume was insufficient, and it cannot be confirmed as the end of the correction. The short - term support is at 4670 - 4680. The strategy is to hold long positions in the hourly cycle and set the stop - profit at 4670 - 4680 [33]. (10) Ethylene Glycol - Logic: The losses of ethylene glycol plants are expanding, and the number of maintenance plans is increasing, which is expected to reduce the domestic supply pressure. However, the port inventory is still accumulating, exceeding the median of the past five years. Two 720,000 - ton production capacity plants in Taiwan stopped production last week, and there is an expectation of improvement in port inventory accumulation [34]. - Technical Analysis: The daily - level shows a medium - term downward structure, and the hourly - level shows an upward structure. It increased in price with a reduction in positions today. The hourly - line closed at a new high, but the breakthrough was not obvious and the volume was insufficient. The short - term support is temporarily at 3775. The strategy is to wait and see in the hourly cycle [36]. (11) Plastic - Logic: Similar to PP, the fundamentals of the olefin industry chain where PP - plastics belong are still weak, with new production capacity pressure and the off - season of demand. After the main contract change, the impact of fundamental reality on the market weakens. It is not advisable to chase short positions excessively. Pay attention to expected trading and the possibility of anti - involution policies [38]. - Technical Analysis: The daily - level shows a medium - term downward structure, and the hourly - level shows a downward structure. It oscillated today, and the hourly - level structure has not reversed. The short - term pressure above is at 6545. The strategy is to wait and see in the hourly cycle [38]. (12) Soda Ash - Logic: The pattern of high supply and high inventory remains unchanged, and the inventory has changed from decreasing to increasing. The medium - term pressure of oversupply still exists, but the cost - effectiveness of holding short positions is reduced. It is only suitable for short - position allocation [41]. - Technical Analysis: The hourly - level shows an upward structure. It increased in price with a reduction in positions today, maintaining the short - term upward structure. The short - term support below has moved up to 1170. The strategy is to wait and see after taking profit on long positions yesterday [41]. (13) Caustic Soda - Logic: The pattern of high supply, high inventory, and weak demand remains unchanged. The supply - demand driving force is still downward without a reversal, but there is little space for chasing short positions. After the main contract change, the impact of fundamental reality on the market weakens. Pay attention to expected trading and the possibility of anti - involution policies [44]. - Technical Analysis: The hourly - level shows an upward structure. It increased in price with a reduction in positions today, continuing the short - term upward structure. The short - term support is at 2190. The strategy is to hold long positions in the hourly cycle and set the stop - profit at 2190 [44].

Report Summary 1. Industry Investment Rating No investment rating information is provided in the report. 2. Core View The agricultural products sector shows a mixed trend. Palm oil, cotton, and pigs are on an upward trend, while soybean meal is volatile, sugar is in a narrow - range oscillation, and eggs are also volatile. Each product's trend is affected by supply - demand factors and technical indicators [1]. 3. Summary by Variety Palm Oil - The palm oil main 2605 contract breaks through the resistance and expands gains, supported by reduced supply and increased demand in the origin. Malaysia's palm oil production in the first 25 days of December decreased by 9%, and exports increased by 1.6% - 3%. Technical indicators are strong, and the strategy is to go long on dips with support at 8550 - 8600 [2]. Cotton - The cotton main 2605 contract rises strongly, supported by the expected supply contraction and strong downstream demand. The new cotton sales rate is up 25.1 percentage points year - on - year, and there are optimistic expectations for textile exports. Technically, it is strong, and the strategy is to hold light long positions [3]. Pigs - The pig main 2603 contract continues to rise, driven by increased demand at the end of the year. Group pig enterprises reduce supply, and consumer demand for pork increases. Technically, it is strong, and the strategy is to go long on dips with light positions [5]. Soybean Meal - The soybean meal main 2605 contract is volatile, first falling then rising. High inventory restricts the rebound space, with the domestic soybean meal inventory at 117.6 million tons, up 7.72% week - on - week. The strategy is short - term trading [7]. Sugar - The Zheng sugar main 2605 contract oscillates in a narrow range. Although seasonal supply increases, demand is expected to pick up during the festivals, and the inventory is low. The technical indicators are strong, and long positions can be held [9]. Eggs - The egg main 2602 contract is volatile, first falling then rising. Supply is abundant, but consumption is expected to improve. The strategy is to close long positions and conduct short - term trading [12].

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Ratings No industry investment ratings are provided in the report. 2. Core Views - The overall trend of lithium carbonate has not reversed, and it is advisable to go long at low prices after the price stabilizes and the capital signal recovers. Polysilicon may fluctuate in the short - term, and it is recommended to wait and see. Industrial silicon is in a short - term shock pattern, and attention should be paid to whether the pressure level of 9000 is effective [1][8][13]. 3. Summary by Commodity Lithium Carbonate - **Market Trend**: The lithium carbonate futures contract 2605 closed at 121,580 yuan/ton, up 2.32% from the previous trading day [1]. - **Core Logic**: The price turned to a shock - strengthening pattern, but funds continued to withdraw. The sharp decline yesterday was a normal adjustment. The market has a consistent expectation of increasing demand, and the downstream production schedule in January - February exceeded expectations. In January 2026, the total production schedule of China's lithium - battery market increased by 103% year - on - year [1]. - **Technical Analysis**: The market was still controlled by bulls, with significant position - reduction at the end of the session. The 5 - minute cycle was green, and the overnight 2 - hour cycle was strong, with a long - short dividing line at 11,820 yuan/ton [1]. - **Strategy Suggestion**: Go long at low prices. Intraday operations can refer to the Band Winner indicator in the 8:30 morning live broadcast [2]. - **Concerns**: The resumption of lithium mines in Jiangxi and the import volume of lithium concentrates, as well as the results of long - term contract negotiations and downstream demand release [3][4]. Polysilicon - **Market Trend**: The polysilicon futures contract 2605 closed at 57,890 yuan/ton, up 2.46% from the previous trading day [6]. - **Core Logic**: Affected by the macro - emotional side, it followed the overall commodity trend. Exchange regulations may lead to reduced or withdrawn funds. It returned to the upper edge of the previous shock range, and the support level was not broken, but liquidity decreased significantly [8]. - **Technical Analysis**: The main contract reduced positions by 12.86%, and trading volume decreased significantly. The 5 - minute cycle was red, and the overnight 2 - hour cycle was weak, with a long - short dividing line at 60,760 yuan/ton [8]. - **Strategy Suggestion**: It may maintain a shock pattern in the short - term, and it is recommended to wait and see [9]. - **Concerns**: The recovery of warehouse receipts [10]. Industrial Silicon - **Market Trend**: The industrial silicon futures contract 2605 closed at 8,915 yuan/ton, up 2.29% from the previous trading day [13]. - **Core Logic**: Affected by the maintenance of northern large - scale plants on the supply side, it strengthened in a shock. The supply - demand imbalance continued, inventory was at a three - year high, and downstream restocking was limited [13]. - **Technical Analysis**: The overall open interest continued to decline. There was an intraday trading opportunity at 9:05, with a profit - loss ratio of 1:2. The 5 - minute cycle was red - blue - red, and the overnight 2 - hour cycle was strong, with a long - short dividing line at 8,715 yuan/ton [13]. - **Strategy Suggestion**: It is in a short - term shock pattern. Pay attention to whether the pressure level of 9000 is effective. Intraday operations can refer to the Band Winner indicator in the 8:30 morning live broadcast [13]. - **Concerns**: Macro - emotional changes, environmental protection speculation of large - scale plants in winter, industry anti - involution progress, and new warehouse receipt registration [13].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided 2. Core View of the Report - The three major oils rebounded from their lows, with palm oil leading the way. Cotton continued to rise, while eggs showed a pattern of near - term weakness and long - term strength. Soybean meal rebounded from its low but the downward trend remained unchanged. Live pigs fluctuated narrowly at a low level, and sugar rebounded from its low but the decline was not reversed [1] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Agricultural Product Sector Overview - The three major oils rebounded from their lows, with palm oil leading. High - frequency data showed that from December 1 - 20, Malaysian palm oil exports increased month - on - month and production decreased, boosting the palm oil rebound, but the rebound space may be limited. Cotton continued to rise due to strong downstream demand, a decline in cumulative imported cotton this year, and improved textile export expectations due to better China - US economic and trade relations [1] 3.2 Variety Strategy Tracking 3.2.1 Palm Oil - Palm oil rebounded from its low, with a significant increase in Malaysian palm oil exports (up 43.6% month - on - month from December 1 - 20, 2025 according to SGS) and a decline in production (down 7.15% month - on - month from December 1 - 20 according to SPPOMA). India's cancellation of some Argentine soybean oil imports was potentially positive, and Indonesia's B50 policy provided long - term support. The palm oil futures price rebounded from its low, but the price was still in a downward trend, and the resistance level of 8466 on the 10 - day moving average needed attention [2] 3.2.2 Cotton - Cotton continued to rise. Xinjiang's new cotton was on the market, commercial inventories increased seasonally, but cotton sales rates were higher than last year, indicating strong downstream consumption. Cotton imports decreased (890,000 tons from January - November this year, a 64% year - on - year decrease). Xinjiang textile mills' product sales were smooth, with high - and medium - count yarns selling well, and the startup rate was over 90%. The improvement in China - US economic and trade relations improved cotton textile export expectations. The cotton futures price continued to rise, reaching a new four - month high. The strategy was to look for support levels to go long [3] 3.2.3 Eggs - Eggs showed near - term weakness and long - term strength. The egg - laying hen inventory was high, and overall demand was weak. The old - hen slaughter volume decreased slightly, and capacity reduction was slow. The near - month contract was under pressure from sufficient supply. The main 2602 contract fluctuated narrowly and was technically weak, and the strategy was to hold short positions [5] 3.2.4 Soybean Meal - Soybean meal rebounded from its low but the decline remained. Domestic soybeans were sufficient, with 1 - month shipping contracts mostly purchased. Cofco's continuous soybean auctions had decreasing transaction rates and prices. High soybean imports led to high - pressure oil extraction, and soybean meal inventories remained above one million tons. The main 2605 contract rebounded slightly but was still in a downward trend, and the strategy was to look for resistance levels to go short lightly [7] 3.2.5 Live Pigs - Live pigs fluctuated narrowly at a low level. The domestic pig inventory was high, and farmers were more willing to sell. There was a risk of concentrated supply due to the end - of - year sales plan of large pig farms and the concentrated出栏 of second - fattened and back - pressured pigs. The demand side was not strongly supported, with mild weather and late Chinese New Year affecting pickled meat demand and substitutes diverting some pork consumption. The main 2603 contract fluctuated narrowly, and the strategy was short - term trading until a breakthrough [9] 3.2.6 Sugar - Sugar rebounded from its low but the decline was not reversed. Global sugar production in major producing countries such as Brazil, India, and Thailand was expected to increase (Brazil up 2.3% to 44.7 million tons, India up 25% to 35.25 million tons, Thailand up 2% to 10.25 million tons in the 2025/26 season). In China, southern sugarcane crushing continued, and the supply pressure increased seasonally. The main 2605 contract rebounded, with some short - covering, but the downward trend remained, and the strategy was to hold short positions [11]