棕榈油下挫、白糖反弹 一、农产品板块综述 棕榈油下跌，因产地马棕油出口疲弱，国内棕油库存偏高，压制 期价走低，连棕油主力合约回归此前下行主趋势，后市偏弱运行。白 糖反弹，受到美原糖走高以及国内制糖成本支撑，郑糖主力合约技术 转强，后市或偏强波动。豆粕续升，美豆强势以及国内进口大豆通关 消息扰动支撑豆粕上涨，后市将继续偏强运行。 二、品种策略跟踪 （一）棕榈油：大幅下跌 数据来源：天富期货研询部、博易云 （三）棉花：冲高回落 焦点关注：棉花主力 2605 合约冲高回落，盘中触及新高，涨势 未变，受到国内需求增长预期的提振： 焦点关注：棕榈油主力 2605 合约反弹受阻，大幅下跌，回归此 前下行主趋势，受到马棕油出口疲弱及国内库存偏高影响： 1.马棕油出口疲弱，船运检验机构的高频数据显示，马来西亚 2 月前 25 天棕榈油出口环比下滑 12.1%—16.1%，需求疲软令马棕油承 压下行。国内棕榈油库存数据偏高，Mysteel 数据显示，截至 2 月 20 日国内棕榈油库存 70.64 万吨，同比增 64.16%，大连棕榈油承压走 低。 2. 棕榈油主力 2605 合约反弹乏力，掉头下行，回归此前下行主 趋势，期价 ...

碳酸锂、多晶硅、工业硅日报 （一）碳酸锂 市场走势：今日碳酸锂早盘大幅跳空高开后转为震荡运行，午后 涨幅有所收窄，主力 2605 合约较上一交易日收盘价上涨 4.31%，报 173660 元/吨。 核心逻辑： 昨日盘后消息：津巴布韦矿业部在一份声明中宣布，立即暂停所 有未加工矿物和锂精矿的出口，该禁令将一直持续到另行通知，并且 适用于目前所有正在运输途中的矿物。 此前在 2025 年 6 月，津巴布韦官方曾宣布计划从 2027 年 1 月起 全面禁止锂精矿出口，旨在促进各矿企在津巴布韦国内建立加工和精 炼设施，推动本地矿业加工发展。此次将锂精矿出口禁令提前至立即 生效，打破了市场预期。 另外，今日下午公布周度产量和库存数据显示库存减少 2839 吨， 产量增加 1638 吨，延续去库格局。 技术面分析：当前碳酸锂主力 2605 合约 5 分钟级别周期为绿线 蓝带绿阶梯。隔夜 2 小时级别周期为红色阶梯线偏强，多空分水位 148660 元/吨。 策略建议：碳酸锂作为高弹性品种，在现阶段基本面本偏强情况 下，利多消息易点燃市场情绪，短期碳酸锂基本面支撑强劲，观点依 旧是利用回调寻找低多机会，不直接追涨。日内交易依 ...

关注今日美伊日内瓦谈判结果 行情综述： 油：原油依旧呈现地缘与基本面的分化态势，且短期逻辑完全聚 焦伊朗问题。短期地缘情绪继续推升原油上行，假期期间美伊两轮谈 判未有大幅进展，同时中东美军继续增大部署，美军中东军事力量已 达 03 年伊拉克以来最大规模，已完成中等规模空中打击行动的前置 准备，市场继续提前定价地缘冲突。但目前海外 polymarket 平台上 的 2 月底前打击伊朗概率依然不高，开战的高成本与高风险和协议达 成对中期选举的利好权衡依然在影响特朗普决策，对特朗普来说达成 协议依然是最能"赢"的选项，美军中东军事集结既是军事选项的前 置准备也是特朗普极限施压的一环。市场提前进行地缘溢价计价后原 油盘面短期走势将完全由伊朗地缘解决路径决定。协议解决与冲突发 生将形成急跌修复与急涨两种路径。目前谈判主动权在美，留给伊朗 的谈判筹码不多，关键仍在伊朗能否接受特朗普要价。抛开局势失控 的极端情景仍以等待降温高空机会为主。 数据来源：天富期货研询部、文华财经 图 1.2：原油 2604 小时图 数据来源：天富期货研询部、文华财经 受地缘情绪从原油传导至丁二烯带来成本端向上驱动，短期需关注伊 朗问题发展路径。 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content 2. Core View of the Report - After the Spring Festival holiday, the cotton futures price soared, the hog price plummeted, the palm oil rebounded at a low level but the rebound space was limited, and the soybean meal adjusted at a high level. The sugar rebounded weakly, and the eggs showed a pattern of near - strong and far - weak [1] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Agricultural Product Sector Overview - After the Spring Festival, the Zhengzhou cotton main contract soared above 15,000, and the market will be strong in the future. The hog price dropped sharply due to strong supply and weak demand, and the market will be weak. The palm oil rebounded at a low level, but the decline has not been reversed, and the market may fluctuate weakly [1] 3.2 Variety Strategy Tracking 3.2.1 Cotton - The main 2605 contract of cotton soared after the festival, driven by the rebound of US cotton and the expected growth of domestic demand. The planting area of Xinjiang cotton in 2026 is expected to decline, and the "Golden March and Silver April" consumption season is coming. The long positions of the main 2605 contract increased significantly, breaking through 15,000. The strategy is to go long at a low position with a light position, with support at 15,000 - 15,100 [2] 3.2.2 Hog - The main 2605 contract of hog gapped down and fell sharply on the first trading day after the Spring Festival due to strong supply and weak demand. After the festival, the supply increased and the demand entered the off - season. The contract price hit a new low, and the strategy is to short at a high position, with resistance at 11,405 - 11,465 [3] 3.2.3 Soybean Meal - The main 2605 contract of soybean meal fell from a high level due to profit - taking by long positions and the adjustment of the US soybean in the external market. The supply pressure of soybean meal still exists, and the contract price encountered resistance at the upper edge of the trading range of 2700 - 2800. The strategy is to close long positions and wait for opportunities [5] 3.2.4 Palm Oil - The main 2605 contract of palm oil rebounded at a low level, driven by the rebound of Malaysian palm oil and the strength of US soybean oil during the festival. However, the export data of Malaysian palm oil is weak, and the domestic inventory is high. The contract price is in a rebound within a downward trend, and the strategy is to short at a high position with a light position [8] 3.2.5 Sugar - The main 2605 contract of Zhengzhou sugar rebounded after the festival, driven by the rebound of the international raw sugar price. However, the new sugar listing pressure still exists, and the contract price rebounded weakly. The strategy is to close long positions and conduct short - term trading [11] 3.2.6 Eggs - Each contract of eggs shows a pattern of near - strong and far - weak. The main 2604 contract continued to rise, but the increase was limited due to the decline in post - festival consumption. The strategy is to reduce long positions [12][14]

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The price of lithium carbonate futures is expected to continue its strong trend, while the price of polysilicon futures may continue to be weak, and industrial silicon futures are expected to continue to fluctuate [1][5][14]. Summary by Related Catalogs Lithium Carbonate - **Market Trend**: The price of the main 2605 contract of lithium carbonate futures rose 7.52% from the previous trading day's closing price, reaching 164,120 yuan/ton [1]. - **Core Logic**: After the Spring Festival, lithium carbonate continued its strength. The supply decreased seasonally, with domestic production in February decreasing by 8.2% month-on-month and new capacity release hindered. The demand is expected to be good, with lithium battery production in March expected to increase by 15 - 20% month-on-month and energy storage expected to be at full production. Social inventory is low and continuously decreasing [1]. - **Technical Analysis**: In the morning, lithium carbonate gapped up and then oscillated. According to the "Three - Line Resonance Method", there was an opportunity to enter the market at 14:05, with a profit - loss ratio of 1:2. The 5 - minute cycle of the main 2605 contract is red line, red band, and red ladder, and the 2 - hour cycle overnight is a strong red ladder line, with the long - short dividing water level at 137,000 yuan/ton [1]. - **Strategy Suggestion**: Maintain the idea of buying on dips. Use the "First K Breakthrough Method" or "Three - Line Resonance Method" for intraday trading, set stop - losses, and refer to the 8:30 morning live broadcast [2]. - **Key Concerns**: The acceptance of cell price increases by downstream and energy storage - related policy orientations [3]. Polysilicon - **Market Trend**: The price of the main 2605 contract of polysilicon futures fell 4.67% from the previous trading day's closing price, reaching 47,000 yuan/ton [5]. - **Core Logic**: During the Spring Festival, market activity was low, polysilicon manufacturers maintained a low operating rate, but inventory was difficult to reduce. Downstream has excessive inventory in the short term, with low purchasing urgency and low willingness to accept high prices. In the short term, there is a game between upstream and downstream, and the subsequent transaction price is likely to continue to decline [5]. - **Technical Analysis**: Polysilicon increased positions and declined today, with an afternoon plunge to a new recent closing low. According to the "Three - Line Resonance Method", there was an opportunity to enter the market at 13:45, with a good profit - loss ratio. The 5 - minute cycle of the 2605 contract is green line, blue band, and green ladder, and the 2 - hour cycle overnight is a weak green ladder line, with the long - short dividing water level at 49,370 yuan/ton [9]. - **Strategy Suggestion**: It may continue to be weak in the short term, and pay attention to the support level of 45,000 yuan/ton [9]. Industrial Silicon - **Market Trend**: The price of the 2605 contract of industrial silicon futures oscillated, rising 0.18% from the previous trading day's closing price, reaching 8,410 yuan/ton [14]. - **Core Logic**: In terms of fundamentals, on the supply side, due to production cuts by large factories in Xinjiang and marginal production cuts in Inner Mongolia and Sichuan, and fewer production days, the output of industrial silicon in February is expected to decline by more than 27% month - on - month. On the demand side, the demand for downstream silicone, polysilicon, and aluminum - silicon alloy has decreased to varying degrees. In February, supply and demand have contracted simultaneously, and there is no strong driving force without new variables [14]. - **Technical Analysis**: Industrial silicon increased positions to some extent today. The 5 - minute cycle of the 2605 contract is red line, blue band, and green ladder, and the 2 - hour cycle overnight is a weak green ladder line, approaching the long - short dividing water level of 8,450 yuan/ton [14]. - **Strategy Suggestion**: It is expected to continue to oscillate. Intraday operations can refer to the Band Winner indicator in combination with the 8:30 morning live broadcast [14]. - **Key Concerns**: The resumption of production of large factories in Xinjiang [15].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The short - term rhythm of the market is dominated by the geopolitical evolution path in Iran. The crude oil market shows a divergence between geopolitics and fundamentals, and its short - term trend is determined by the resolution path of the Iranian geopolitical issue. For the chemical industry, most oil - chemical varieties follow the cost - driven rise of crude oil, and different trading strategies are recommended for different products [2][3] 3. Summary by Directory Crude Oil - Logic: Crude oil shows a divergence between geopolitics and fundamentals, with short - term logic focused on the Iran issue. Geopolitical sentiment drives up prices. The probability of a US strike on Iran before the end of February is low. The market's short - term trend depends on the resolution of the Iranian issue. It is advisable to wait for a cooling - off period for short - selling opportunities [2][5] - Technical Analysis: The daily - line shows a medium - term downward structure, and the hourly - line shows a short - term upward structure. After a gap - up opening to repair the overseas market gains, it stands above the 490 pressure level, and the short - term structure turns bullish. Temporarily wait and see in the hourly cycle, and the small - position 04P440 options held before the holiday can still be retained [5] Styrene (EB) - Logic: Domestic production is increasing under high profits, and supply may return more than expected. The cost is driven up by the geopolitical sentiment transmitted from crude oil to butadiene. The development path of the Iran issue needs to be monitored [7][10] - Technical Analysis: The hourly - line shows a short - term downward structure. It rebounds with a small increase in positions today, and the short - term pressure above is at the 7850 level. Temporarily wait and see in the hourly cycle and pay attention to the pressure level [10] Pure Benzene - Logic: Port inventories are still high, domestic production rates are rising rapidly, and downstream production is performing well. The cost is driven up by the geopolitical sentiment transmitted from crude oil to butadiene. The development path of the Iran issue needs to be monitored [11] - Technical Analysis: The hourly - line shows a short - term downward structure. It rebounds with a decrease in positions today but fails to break through the short - term pressure at the 6295 level. Temporarily wait and see in the hourly cycle and pay attention to the pressure level [11] Rubber - Logic: The domestic rubber market is in the off - season, and there are no major contradictions in the short - term. The Tokyo rubber market and Thai spot prices rose slightly during the holiday. The rise in crude oil drives up synthetic rubber prices, and natural rubber follows suit [15] - Technical Analysis: The daily - line shows a medium - term upward structure, and the hourly - line shows an upward structure. It rises with an increase in positions today, and the short - term support below is at the 16250 level. Wait and see in the hourly cycle [15] Synthetic Rubber - Logic: The profit of downstream tire manufacturers is poor, and the fundamental pressure on synthetic rubber is expected to increase. However, the cost is driven up by the geopolitical sentiment transmitted from crude oil to butadiene, showing a divergence between fundamentals and geopolitics. It has a relatively high correlation with crude oil [17] - Technical Analysis: The daily - line shows a medium - term upward structure, and the hourly - line shows a short - term downward structure. It rises with an increase in positions today and tests the short - term pressure at the 13220 level (04 contract). Pay attention to short - selling signals after the rebound in the hourly cycle [17] PX - Logic: The fundamentals changed little during the holiday. Supply is stable, polyester terminal production is at a low level, and the slow resumption of work before the Lantern Festival suppresses short - term demand. The cost is driven up by the Iran issue pushing up crude oil [21] - Technical Analysis: The daily - line shows a medium - term upward structure, and the hourly - line shows a short - term oscillating structure. It rises with an increase in positions today but remains within the wide range of 7050 - 7500 in the hourly - line. Wait and see at the hourly level [21] PTA - Logic: The fundamentals changed little during the holiday. Supply is stable, terminal production is at a low level, and the slow resumption of work before the Lantern Festival suppresses short - term demand. The cost is driven up by the Iran issue pushing up crude oil [24] - Technical Analysis: The daily - line shows a medium - term upward structure, and the hourly - line shows a short - term upward structure. It rises with an increase in positions today, and the short - term support below is at the 5160 level. Wait and see in the hourly cycle [24] PP - Logic: Downstream terminals have not fully recovered. The high supply pressure of olefins remains. The cost disturbance from crude oil becomes the short - term trading focus. Once the geopolitical situation cools down, olefins will face real - world pressure [26] - Technical Analysis: The hourly - line short - term downward structure is being tested. It rises with an increase in positions today and tests the short - term pressure at the 6730 - 6740 level. Temporarily wait and see in the hourly cycle, and pay attention to whether the pressure level can effectively suppress and whether there are short - selling signals [28] Methanol - Logic: Methanol shows a divergence between fundamentals and geopolitics. After the restart of Iranian methanol plants in spring, the expected high import pressure due to the return of Iranian methanol under high port inventories exists. The geopolitical sentiment during the holiday and seasonal de - stocking drive up prices, and the upside space depends on the resolution of the Iranian geopolitical issue [30] - Technical Analysis: The daily - line shows a medium - term downward structure, and the short - term downward structure is being tested. It rebounds with an increase in positions today and tests the short - term pressure at the 2285 level. Temporarily wait and see in the hourly cycle, and pay attention to whether the pressure level can effectively suppress and whether there are short - selling signals [30] Ethylene Glycol (EG) - Logic: Supply is at a high level, downstream production is reducing, and there is a significant inventory build - up during the Spring Festival. The slow resumption of work before the Lantern Festival suppresses short - term demand. The high inventory and high premium pressure of the 05 contract are difficult to change, and the probability of a downward trend after the delivery regression logic starts is greater [32] - Technical Analysis: The daily - line shows a medium - term downward structure, and the hourly - line shows a short - term downward structure. It rises with an increase in positions today and tests the pressure at the 3780 - 3800 level. Hold short positions in the hourly cycle, and pay attention to whether the pressure level can effectively suppress and whether there are short - selling signals [32] Plastic - Logic: Downstream terminals have not fully recovered. The high supply pressure of olefins remains. The cost disturbance from crude oil becomes the short - term trading focus. Once the geopolitical situation cools down, olefins will face real - world pressure [36] - Technical Analysis: The daily - line shows a medium - term downward structure, and the hourly - line shows a downward structure. It rises with a decrease in positions today and tests the pressure at the 6830 level. Hold short positions in the hourly cycle, and pay attention to whether the pressure level can effectively suppress and whether there are short - selling signals [36] Soda Ash - Logic: New production capacity of soda ash is ramping up during the holiday, bringing higher supply pressure. It is in a pattern of increasing supply and decreasing demand, and the post - holiday replenishment demand is weak. The 05 contract is likely to see a downward correction of the premium [38] - Technical Analysis: The hourly - line shows a short - term downward structure. It rebounds after reaching a low point today, and the short - term pressure above is in the 1180 - 1190 range. Hold short positions in the hourly cycle and set the stop - profit at the 1190 level [38][40] PVC - Logic: Domestic PVC is mainly produced by the calcium carbide method (80%), with a low correlation with oil. It is in a pattern of increasing supply, decreasing demand, and high inventory. The previous export - tax - rebate - related bullish logic has ended, and it returns to the medium - term oversupply suppression [41] - Technical Analysis: The daily - line shows a medium - term upward structure, and the hourly - line structure is not clear. It rebounds and tests the pressure at the 5040 level today but fails to break through, with a reversal signal at the end. There is an opportunity to try short - selling in the hourly cycle, with the stop - loss set at the 5040 level [41]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content 2. Report's Core View - The lithium carbonate futures market shows a strong bullish pattern, with a tight balance between supply and demand. The polysilicon market is expected to oscillate, and the industrial silicon market is expected to be weak with oscillations [1][6][15] 3. Summary by Related Catalogs 3.1 Lithium Carbonate - **Market Trend**: The lithium carbonate futures price opened significantly higher and then oscillated. The main 2605 contract rose 3.07% to 137,000 yuan/ton compared to the previous trading day's closing price [1] - **Core Logic**: The demand side may see a surge in export orders due to the reduction of lithium battery export tax rebates, and the production schedule of the materials sector in March has a year - on - year growth rate generally greater than 50%. The supply side will see a record - high import volume in March in China corresponding to the large increase in Chile's lithium salt exports in January, but this is a temporary increase. The weekly production this week decreased by 825 tons, and the inventory decreased by 2,019 tons compared to last week. The tight balance between supply and demand remains unchanged [1] - **Technical Analysis**: The 5 - minute cycle of the main 2605 contract is a green line, red band, and green ladder. The 2 - hour cycle overnight shows a weak green ladder line, with the long - short equilibrium level at 148,100 yuan/ton [1] - **Strategy Suggestion**: Based on the judgment of the lithium carbonate price's strong oscillation, one can lightly buy when the price drops to 130,000 yuan/ton. Pay close attention to market dynamics and set stop - loss points. For intraday trading, use the "First K Breakthrough Method" or "Three - Line Resonance Method" to find entry points [2] - **Concerns**: Whether there is regulatory upgrade, the resumption progress of Jiaxiawo, and the production schedule on the demand side [3] 3.2 Polysilicon - **Market Trend**: The polysilicon futures oscillated narrowly. The main 2605 contract rose 0.17% to 49,370 yuan/ton compared to the previous trading day's closing price [6] - **Core Logic**: The trading volume is light, lacking upward and downward drivers. It is expected to oscillate in the range of (48,000, 51,000). Affected by the shutdown of leading enterprises, the polysilicon production schedule in February 2026 was 79,500 tons, a 14.97% month - on - month decrease. The inventory increased slightly, and the market orders were limited. The current production is insufficient to cover short - term shipments, leading to an increase in inventory. The spot price weakened slightly, with the N - type re - feed material quoted at 48.2 - 59 yuan/kg [6][9] - **Technical Analysis**: The 5 - minute cycle of the 2605 contract is a green line, blue band, and green ladder. The 2 - hour cycle overnight shows a strong red ladder line, with the long - short equilibrium level at 47,050 yuan/ton [9] - **Strategy Suggestion**: It may continue to oscillate in the range of (48,000, 51,000). Pay attention to the latest quotes of silicon material enterprises to downstream and whether trading restrictions can be gradually lifted [9] 3.3 Industrial Silicon - **Market Trend**: The industrial silicon futures oscillated. The 2605 contract fell 0.59% to 8,450 yuan/ton compared to the previous trading day's closing price [15] - **Core Logic**: In the past three days, the industrial silicon has continuously increased positions and declined significantly, and the spot price has also declined. On the supply side, large factories in the northwest region have shut down, and the operation in the southwest region has remained at a low level, resulting in a tightened supply. As of February 5, the number of operating furnaces of metallic silicon in China was 178, with an overall operating rate of 22.36%, a decrease of 32 compared to last week. On the demand side, approaching the Spring Festival, most downstream silicon enterprises are on holiday, and the procurement willingness is low except for rigid - demand procurement. The polysilicon production schedule in February was 79,500 tons, a 14.97% month - on - month decrease. The operating rates of the organic silicon and aluminum alloy markets remained stable, and the overall downstream demand is expected to further narrow. The total inventory of industrial silicon is at a five - year high. It is expected to oscillate weakly, and attention should be paid to the support level of 8,400 yuan/ton [15] - **Technical Analysis**: The industrial silicon has continued to increase positions significantly. The 5 - minute cycle of the 2605 contract is a green line, green band, and green ladder. The 2 - hour cycle overnight shows a weak green ladder line, with the long - short equilibrium level at 8,850 yuan/ton [15] - **Strategy Suggestion**: It is expected to oscillate weakly. If it breaks through 8,400 yuan/ton downward, it may turn to a weak operation. For intraday trading, one can refer to the Band Winner indicator in combination with the 8:30 morning live broadcast [15]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating There is no information about the report industry investment rating in the provided content. 2. Core Viewpoints - In the context of oversupply, the recent focus of the oil market is still on geopolitical factors. There is an expectation that the US - Iran nuclear talks will eventually reach an agreement. The change in the Fed's policy thinking of "interest rate cut + balance - sheet reduction" has a negative impact on risk assets, and the crude oil market maintains a high - short strategy. For the chemical sector, it is recommended to focus on the high - short opportunities after the rebound of methanol, ethylene glycol, styrene, pure benzene, and rubber, and the short opportunity of soda ash is the most certain [2][4]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs (1) Crude Oil - **Logic**: In the context of oversupply, the focus is on geopolitics. The US - Iran nuclear talks are expected to reach an agreement. The "interest rate cut + balance - sheet reduction" policy change has a negative impact on risk assets, and the macro - driver shows a bearish sign. Maintain a high - short strategy and use put options to play [2][4]. - **Technical Tracking**: The daily - level shows a medium - term downward structure, and the hourly - level shows a short - term downward structure. The short - term pressure above is at 489 (04 contract). The strategy is to hold the SC04P440 call option to trade the opportunity of the US - Iran nuclear talks [4]. (2) Styrene - **Logic**: The cost of crude oil has weakened significantly, the macro - sentiment has turned cold, and the micro - fundamentals of styrene have weakened. There is a strong expectation of supply increase, and the demand side has a negative feedback expectation. The fundamental driver has weakened [8]. - **Technical Tracking**: The hourly - level shows a short - term downward structure. The short - term pressure above is at 7850. Hold short positions in the hourly cycle with a stop - loss reference of 7850 [10]. (3) Pure Benzene - **Logic**: The speculation space of pure benzene is weaker than that of styrene. There is a potential positive impact on domestic imports, but the overseas demand is weak and the import pressure is the biggest negative factor. The disk shows a peak - topping signal [11]. - **Technical Tracking**: The hourly - level shows a short - term downward structure. The short - term pressure above is at 6260. Hold short positions in the hourly cycle with a stop - loss reference of 6260 [11]. (4) Rubber - **Logic**: The inventory in Qingdao is relatively high, the demand for tires is weak, and there is a strong expectation of supply increase after the rubber - tapping season in March. There is no upward driver except following the synthetic rubber. It falls with the macro - cooling [15]. - **Technical Analysis**: The daily - level shows a medium - term oscillating structure, and the hourly - level shows a short - term downward structure. The short - term pressure above is at 16410. Hold short positions in the hourly cycle with a stop - loss reference of 16410 [15]. (5) Synthetic Rubber - **Logic**: The terminal tire has high inventory and weak demand, and the production profit of synthetic rubber is in deficit. It is supported by the strength of butadiene and the geopolitical sentiment of crude oil [17]. - **Technical Analysis**: The daily - level shows a medium - term upward structure, and the hourly - level shows a short - term downward structure. The short - term pressure above is at 12450. Pay attention to the high - short signal after the rebound in the hourly cycle [17]. (6) PX - **Logic**: The supply - demand pattern is strong before the new capacity is put into operation in the third quarter, but the market has advanced trading in December. The short - term driver is bearish due to the negative feedback of textile polyester and the decline of crude oil [20]. - **Technical Tracking**: The daily - level shows a medium - term upward structure, and the hourly - level shows a short - term oscillating structure. It is in a wide - range interval of 7050 - 7500. Stay on the sidelines at the hourly level [20]. (7) PTA - **Logic**: In the off - season, demand weakens, and there is a negative feedback logic of polyester production reduction. The short - term driver is bearish due to the macro - cooling and the decline of crude oil [22]. - **Technical Tracking**: The daily - level shows a medium - term upward structure, and the hourly - level shows a short - term downward structure. The short - term pressure above is at 5295. Hold short positions in the hourly cycle with a stop - loss reference of 5255 [22]. (8) PP - **Logic**: With the geopolitical cooling and the macro - sentiment turning cold, olefins weaken. The demand is in the seasonal weakening period, and the supply pressure is high. The medium - term driver is bearish, and the disk shows a peak - topping signal [26]. - **Technical Tracking**: The hourly - level shows a short - term downward structure. The short - term pressure above is at 6825. Pay attention to the high - short signal after the rebound in the hourly cycle [26]. (9) Methanol - **Logic**: The fundamentals are weak. There is a negative feedback expectation and import pressure. The focus is on geopolitics, and the geopolitical tension has cooled but not completely lifted [28]. - **Technical Analysis**: The daily - level shows a medium - term and short - term downward structure. The short - term pressure above is at 2285. Hold short positions in the hourly cycle with a stop - loss reference of 2285 [30]. (10) Ethylene Glycol - **Logic**: The domestic fundamentals are weak, with seasonal inventory accumulation pressure and a negative feedback logic of polyester production reduction. The short - term driver turns bearish due to the macro - cooling and geopolitical cooling [31]. - **Technical Analysis**: The daily - level shows a medium - term downward structure, and the hourly - level shows a short - term downward structure. The short - term pressure above is at 3810. Hold short positions in the hourly cycle with a stop - loss reference of 3810 [31]. (11) Plastic - **Logic**: With the geopolitical cooling and the macro - sentiment turning cold, olefins weaken. The demand is in the seasonal weakening period, and the supply pressure is high. The medium - term driver is bearish, and the disk shows a peak - topping signal [33]. - **Technical Analysis**: The daily - level shows a medium - term downward structure, and the hourly - level shows a downward structure. The short - term pressure above is at 6945. There is a short - selling signal in the hourly cycle with a stop - loss reference of 6825 [33]. (12) Soda Ash - **Logic**: The fundamentals of soda ash are high - supply, weak - demand, and high - inventory. The surplus pattern continues. The far - month premium is expected to be repaired downward, and the 05 contract maintains a high - short strategy [37]. - **Technical Analysis**: The hourly - level shows a short - term downward structure. The short - term pressure is in the range of 1215 - 1225. Hold short positions in the hourly cycle with a stop - loss reference of 1225 [37]. (13) PVC - **Logic**: The fundamentals are high - production, high - inventory, and weak - demand. After April 1, the export tax - rebate for PVC will be cancelled, and the export is expected to weaken, increasing the domestic supply pressure [38]. - **Technical Analysis**: The daily - level shows a medium - term upward structure, and the hourly - level structure is not clear. Stay on the sidelines in the hourly cycle [38].

Report Summary 1. Industry Investment Rating No information provided regarding the industry investment rating. 2. Core Viewpoints - The agricultural product sector shows mixed trends, with white sugar rising strongly and soybean meal declining. Other products such as live pigs, eggs, palm oil, and cotton also present different market conditions [1]. 3. Summary by Variety (1) White Sugar - **Market Situation**: White sugar shows a pattern of weak overseas and strong domestic markets. The Zhengzhou white sugar main contract 2605 has risen strongly, supported by lower - than - expected sugar production in domestic main producing areas and year - end demand. Overseas, the US raw sugar futures price has hit a new low due to global sugar supply surplus. As of the end of January, Guangxi's white sugar production was 402.9 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of 78.8 million tons, and the sugar production rate decreased by 1.14 percentage points year - on - year [2]. - **Technical Analysis**: The main contract 2605 has risen strongly, standing above the moving average system, with the MACD red column expanding, showing a strong technical trend. - **Strategy**: Look for support levels to participate in with light - position long orders, with a stop - loss reference of 5180 - 5200 [2]. (2) Soybean Meal - **Market Situation**: The soybean meal main contract 2605 first rose and then declined, testing the lower edge of the trading range again. Before the USDA monthly supply - demand report, the US soybean futures price pulled back, and domestic oil mills' high - level soybean crushing led to sufficient supply. However, during the last week before the Spring Festival, soybean crushing plants will shut down for holidays, and the supply pressure may ease, while downstream enterprises have completed their inventory preparations [3]. - **Technical Analysis**: The main contract 2605 has fallen back to test the 5 - day moving average at 2729, but the lower edge of the trading range is expected to provide support, and the trading range characteristics remain unchanged. - **Strategy**: Participate in with light - position long orders near the lower edge of the trading range, with a stop - loss reference of 2700 - 2710 [3]. (3) Live Pigs - **Market Situation**: The live pig main contract 2605 hit a new low, with the market being weak. As the Spring Festival approaches, the supply of suitable - weight pigs has increased due to farmers' expectations of post - festival demand decline and the need to lock in profits. Although the demand from slaughterhouses has increased, the demand growth is lower than expected due to the substitution of beef, mutton, and poultry [5]. - **Technical Analysis**: The main contract 2605 continued to fall to a new low, with the MACD green column continuing, showing a weak technical trend. - **Strategy**: Participate in short - selling [5]. (4) Eggs - **Market Situation**: The egg main contract 2603 fluctuated in a narrow range at a low level. The Spring Festival inventory preparation is basically over, and the demand is in a gap period, with slower egg sales and increased inventory in production and circulation. The egg - laying hen inventory is relatively high, and the culling of old hens has slowed down, resulting in slow capacity reduction [7]. - **Technical Analysis**: The main contract 2603 fluctuates at a low level, with the futures price running below the moving average system, showing a weak technical trend. - **Strategy**: Place light - position short orders [7]. (5) Palm Oil - **Market Situation**: The palm oil main contract 2605 fluctuated in a narrow range. The market is waiting for the MPOB monthly supply - demand report. Due to the increase in Malaysian palm oil production and the decrease in exports in January, the market expects the inventory to decline at the end of January. In China, the pre - festival inventory preparation for edible oils is coming to an end, the palm oil inventory is still high, and the spot trading is light [10]. - **Technical Analysis**: The main contract 2605 first declined and then rose, fluctuating in a narrow range, with the futures price closing near the 20 - day moving average, and the MACD green column expanding after a death cross, showing a weak technical trend. - **Strategy**: Conduct short - term trading before the release of the MPOB report [10]. (6) Cotton - **Market Situation**: The cotton main contract 2605 first rose and then declined, closing with a small negative line, still in a sideways pattern. The expectation of a reduction in Xinjiang's cotton - planting area has been digested, and the market speculation has cooled down. As the Spring Festival approaches, textile enterprises' new order volume has decreased, and the intention to replenish inventory before the festival has declined. The national commercial inventory has decreased slightly. As of February 6, the cotton commercial inventory was 5.5272 billion tons, a month - on - month decrease of 2.15%, but higher than the same period last year and the five - year average [11][13]. - **Technical Analysis**: The main contract 2605 closed with a small negative line, running below the short - term moving average, continuing the sideways fluctuation pattern. - **Strategy**: Conduct short - term trading for the time being [13].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content 2. Core Viewpoints - The ongoing Iran-US talks in Oman are key, with the Friday negotiation being a crucial time - node. If the Iran - US negotiation concludes and geopolitical risks don't expand, an oversupply situation and geopolitical cooling suggest a downward trend for crude oil, and a short - selling approach on rallies is recommended. The chemical industry sector declined due to a cooling macro - environment and the crude oil price slump. Attention should be paid to short - selling opportunities on rallies for methanol, ethylene glycol, styrene, pure benzene, and rubber, which showed weak technical structures and trading volumes [2][3]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs (1) Crude Oil - **Logic**: The Iran - US talks in Oman are underway with pre - meeting differences. Iran is willing to exchange its nuclear program for sanctions relief, and it depends on the US. Both prefer diplomatic solutions, and Friday's talk is crucial. Given an oversupply and geopolitical cooling, the price trend can refer to the continuous decline after the Iran nuclear deal in July 2015. A short - selling approach on rallies is maintained [2][3]. - **Technical Analysis**: It has a medium - term downward structure on the daily chart and a short - term downward structure on the hourly chart, oscillating today with short - term resistance at 485. The strategy is to hold the SC04P440 call option to trade the outcome of the Iran - US talks [4]. (2) Styrene - **Logic**: A sharp decline in crude oil prices, a cooling macro - environment, and a weakening of its own fundamentals led to a significant reduction in positions at high prices, indicating a short - term peak. With high profits, future supply is expected to increase, and downstream resistance to high prices is strong due to losses. Demand is expected to weaken as some enterprises start to reduce production during the Spring Festival [8]. - **Technical Analysis**: It has a short - term downward structure on the hourly chart, with positions reduced today and short - term resistance at 7850. Hold short positions on the hourly cycle with a stop - loss at 7850 [8]. (3) Pure Benzene - **Logic**: Its speculative space is weaker than styrene, with passive upward movement due to styrene's profit expansion and potential positive impacts from the US tariff cut on South Korean pure benzene. Short - term upward continuity depends on market sentiment and large position reductions at high prices. In the medium term, overseas demand is weakening, while domestic imports are expected to remain high, posing import pressure [11]. - **Technical Analysis**: It has a short - term downward structure on the hourly chart, with positions reduced today and short - term resistance at 6260. Hold short positions on the hourly cycle with a stop - loss at 6260 [11]. (4) Rubber - **Logic**: Qingdao's inventory is still high, and tire demand is expected to weaken as the vehicle market slows. After a passive price increase, Thai cup - lump rubber has strong production incentives, and supply is expected to increase after the March tapping season. There is a lack of upward drivers except for following the synthetic rubber price increase [12]. - **Technical Analysis**: It has a medium - term oscillatory structure on the daily chart and a short - term downward structure on the hourly chart, with positions reduced today and short - term resistance at 16410. Hold short positions on the hourly cycle with a stop - loss at 16410 [12]. (5) Synthetic Rubber - **Logic**: Although the raw material butadiene is strong, the sharp decline of silver last Friday, a cooling macro - environment, and geopolitical cooling suggest a strong expectation of a decline in crude oil prices, resulting in a negative driving force [17]. - **Technical Analysis**: It has a medium - term upward structure on the daily chart and a short - term downward structure on the hourly chart, with positions reduced today and short - term resistance at 12450. Look for short - selling signals on rallies on the hourly cycle [17]. (6) PX - **Logic**: The supply - demand situation is strong before new capacity comes online in the third quarter, but the market has advanced trading in December. In the short term, there is a negative feedback from the textile polyester sector, and the cooling macro - environment and falling crude oil prices lead to a negative driving force [22]. - **Technical Analysis**: It has a medium - term upward structure on the daily chart and a short - term oscillatory structure on the hourly chart, oscillating today within the 7050 - 7500 range. Adopt a wait - and - see approach on the hourly level [22]. (7) PTA - **Logic**: Entering the seasonal inventory accumulation period due to weak demand, there is a negative feedback from downstream polyester production cuts. The short - term fundamentals are weak, and the cooling macro - environment and falling crude oil prices lead to a negative driving force [24]. - **Technical Analysis**: It has a medium - term upward structure on the daily chart and a short - term downward structure on the hourly chart, oscillating today with short - term resistance at 5295. Hold short positions on the hourly cycle with a stop - loss at 5255 [24]. (8) PP - **Logic**: Geopolitical cooling and a cooling macro - environment led to a decline in olefins. The demand for PP is in a seasonal weak period, and there is high supply pressure, resulting in a negative medium - term driving force. A large reduction in positions at high prices today indicates a market peak [26]. - **Technical Analysis**: It has a short - term downward structure on the hourly chart, oscillating today with the night session breaking the 6650 support level. The short - term structure turns bearish, with short - term resistance at 6825. Look for short - selling signals on rallies on the hourly cycle [26]. (9) Methanol - **Logic**: Weak demand due to low profits and expected production cuts in coastal MTO plants, high inventory pressure, geopolitical cooling, and a cooling macro - environment lead to a negative short - term driving force [29]. - **Technical Analysis**: It has a medium - term and short - term downward structure, oscillating today with short - term resistance at 2285. Hold short positions on the hourly cycle with a stop - loss at 2285 [29]. (10) Ethylene Glycol - **Logic**: Weak domestic fundamentals, seasonal inventory accumulation pressure, high supply, and negative feedback from downstream polyester production cuts. The cooling macro - environment and geopolitical cooling in the past two days lead to a negative short - term driving force [31]. - **Technical Analysis**: It has a medium - term and short - term downward structure, oscillating today with short - term resistance at 3810. Hold short positions on the hourly cycle with a stop - loss at 3810 [31]. (11) Plastic - **Logic**: Geopolitical cooling and a cooling macro - environment led to a decline in olefins. The demand for plastic is in a seasonal weak period, and there is high supply pressure, resulting in a negative medium - term driving force. A large reduction in positions at high prices today indicates a market peak [32]. - **Technical Analysis**: It has a medium - term and short - term downward structure, oscillating today with short - term resistance at 6945. Look for short - selling signals on rallies on the hourly cycle [32]. (12) Soda Ash - **Logic**: The fundamentals of soda ash are characterized by high supply, weak demand, and high inventory, with an oversupply situation continuing. Although there is a slight inventory reduction due to pre - holiday restocking, the oversupply pressure and large inventory suggest that the premium of far - month contracts will gradually decline. Adopt a short - selling approach for the 05 contract [35]. - **Technical Analysis**: It has a short - term downward structure on the hourly chart, with increased positions and a long - negative candlestick today. The short - term resistance is in the 1215 - 1225 range. Hold short positions on the hourly cycle with a stop - loss at 1225 [35]. (13) PVC - **Logic**: Supply remains high, and demand is weak with no expected reversal. However, a recent policy on power prices may provide short - term cost support [36]. - **Technical Analysis**: It has a medium - term upward structure on the daily chart, and the short - term upward structure on the hourly chart may end. Breaking the 5000 support level with increased positions today indicates a potential end of the short - term upward trend. Adopt a wait - and - see approach on the hourly cycle [36].