Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Ratings - No industry investment ratings are provided in the report. 2. Report Core Views - The report analyzes the market trends, core logics, technical aspects, and provides trading strategies for three commodities: lithium carbonate, polysilicon, and industrial silicon. It also mentions potential influencing factors and trading opportunities for each commodity [1][7][10]. 3. Summary by Commodity Lithium Carbonate - **Market Trend**: The lithium carbonate futures weakened today. The main 2605 contract closed at 106,160 yuan/ton, down 2.26% from the previous trading day's closing price [1]. - **Core Logic**: The weekly production and inventory data for lithium carbonate were released, showing a continued de - stocking pattern, but the de - stocking amplitude significantly narrowed. Since December, the inventory has decreased by 2000 - 3000 tons per week, but only 1044 tons this week, far lower than expected. The demand side still has some resilience, with domestic power and energy storage demand both increasing month - on - month in November. It is expected that domestic energy storage installations in 2026 may increase by over 60% year - on - year. The resumption progress of the Jianxiaowo lithium mine needs to be closely watched, as its resumption may drive the futures price down [1][2]. - **Technical Analysis**: The overall trading volume of lithium carbonate futures changed little today, with some reduction at the end of the session. It is still dominated by long positions. The 5 - minute cycle of the main 2605 contract is a red line, blue ribbon, and green ladder. The overnight 2 - hour cycle is still a strong red ladder line, with the long - short dividing water level at 97,720 yuan/ton [3]. - **Strategy Suggestion**: In the context of "strong reality, strong expectation", the operation should be mainly based on buying on dips. Intraday trading can refer to the Band Winner indicator in the 8:30 morning live broadcast [3]. Polysilicon - **Market Trend**: The polysilicon futures weakened today. The main 2605 contract closed at 59,300 yuan/ton, up 3.73% from the previous trading day's closing price [7]. - **Core Logic**: The market has a need for adjustment after continuous new highs since listing, driven by the establishment of a polysilicon platform company. However, from a policy perspective, the elimination of backward production capacity in the photovoltaic industry chain is still emphasized. The polysilicon output has decreased year - on - year for the first time since 2013, strengthening the expectation of price increase, and it is still considered strong [7]. - **Technical Analysis**: The overall trading volume of polysilicon futures decreased significantly today, and it is still dominated by long positions. There was an opportunity to intervene at 13:35 today with the "three - line resonance method" combined with a significant decline in trading volume. The 5 - minute cycle of the 2605 contract is a green line, blue ribbon, and green ladder, and the overnight 2 - hour cycle is still a strong red ladder line, with the long - short dividing water level at 59,300 yuan/ton [7]. - **Strategy Suggestion**: Polysilicon is still considered strong. Intraday trading can refer to the Band Winner indicator in the 8:30 morning live broadcast [7]. Industrial Silicon - **Market Trend**: The industrial silicon futures strengthened today. The 2605 contract closed at 8,645 yuan/ton, up 2.07% from the previous trading day's closing price [10]. - **Core Logic**: Affected by the macro - sentiment, domestic commodities generally rose today, with significant increases in precious metals and coking coal. Fundamentally, the current situation of weak supply and demand in the industrial silicon industry continues, and the industry inventory is at a three - year high, with the inventory - building pattern continuing. Some manufacturers have a strong price - holding mentality under continuous cost inversion, but the overall effect is average in the face of weak demand [10]. - **Technical Analysis**: The overall trading volume of industrial silicon futures has been continuously decreasing, and it has turned to be dominated by long positions. The downward driving force has weakened. The 5 - minute cycle of the 2605 contract is a green line, red ribbon, and red ladder, and the overnight 2 - hour cycle has turned into a strong red ladder line, with the long - short dividing water level at 8,230 yuan/ton [11][14]. - **Strategy Suggestion**: It is considered a rebound. Intraday trading can refer to the Band Winner indicator in the 8:30 morning live broadcast [14].

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content Core Viewpoints - Chemically, on Friday night, there was an abnormal rise with the general increase of domestic industrial products. Over the weekend, the National Development and Reform Commission emphasized the control of high - energy - consuming and high - emission projects and the rectification of involution - style competition. Super - oversold varieties in the chemical industry generally had a long - yang line with position reduction. Short - term attention should be paid to whether it will drive an hourly upward movement similar to the "anti - involution" expectation in July. For unilateral long positions, priority should be given to varieties that increased positions and rose today (PX, synthetic rubber). Crude oil is still weakly driven by supply - demand and macro factors recently, and it is necessary to wait for geopolitical drivers [2]. Summary by Directory (1) Crude Oil - Logic: Supply - demand and macro drivers have a weak impact on the market. The medium - term expectation of supply surplus remains the main market tone, but short - term supply and demand are still strong. The demand and operation of US refineries have both increased, and there is little short - term supply - demand contradiction. In terms of the macro aspect, the Federal Reserve cut interest rates as expected in December, but Powell hinted that the interest rate cut in January might be suspended. Instead of cutting interest rates, the Federal Reserve decided to expand the balance sheet to directly provide short - term market liquidity, and short - term macro risks are not large. Geopolitical factors are still the main short - term trading point. The judgment on the ceasefire between Russia and Ukraine is pessimistic. The market might have over - traded the optimistic expectation of the Russia - Ukraine ceasefire at the end of November, and there is an upward - revision risk later. It is judged that the risk in the Caribbean region will escalate, waiting for a pulse - type upward movement after the event occurs (refer to the situation in Iran in July). Short - term bullish thinking (but difficult to trade due to geopolitical drivers), waiting for medium - term short - selling opportunities after a pulse - type upward movement in the medium term [3]. - Technical Analysis: The daily - level of crude oil shows a medium - term downward structure, and the hourly - level shows short - term oscillation. Today, it oscillated within the day. The hourly - level technical structure is downward, but it is regarded as an oscillation. The strategy is to wait and see in the hourly cycle [4][5]. (2) Styrene - Logic: Port inventories continued to decline, and the pressure of high inventories has been alleviated, but the year - on - year pressure is still relatively large. Maintaining a medium - term bearish view, in the short term, with the reduction of pressure and the news disturbance of the National Development and Reform Commission's emphasis on controlling high - energy - consuming and high - emission projects over the weekend, short - term expectation trading drives the market to rebound [9]. - Technical Analysis: Styrene shows a short - term oscillating structure at the hourly level. Today, it fell with position reduction, and the hourly - level structure is unclear. The strategy is to wait and see at the hourly level [9]. (3) Rubber - Logic: There is still no major contradiction in rubber in the short term. The scale of the Thailand - Cambodia conflict this time is larger than that in July, but it is still limited to the disputed area far from the main rubber - producing areas of the two countries, and the actual impact on supply is limited. There is still a lack of major contradictions in the supply - demand aspect of rubber itself, and it can be regarded as an oscillation [10]. - Technical Analysis: Rubber shows a medium - term downward structure at the daily level and a short - term oscillating structure at the hourly level. Today, it oscillated within the day, and the hourly - level structure is unclear. The strategy is to wait and see in the hourly cycle [10]. (4) Synthetic Rubber - Logic: The core logic of synthetic rubber is still guided by the raw material butadiene. The raw material butadiene replenished inventory due to the high profits of downstream synthetic rubber. The high - level port inventory has decreased significantly by nearly 13% for two consecutive weeks. At the same time, the Asian butadiene operation rate has declined slightly, and its own supply - demand has improved in the short term, temporarily reducing the cost pressure on synthetic rubber. The short - term strengthening of the raw material butadiene may drive synthetic rubber to have an hourly - level upward market [12]. - Technical Analysis: It shows a medium - term downward structure at the daily level and a short - term upward structure at the hourly level. Today, it increased positions and broke through the key pressure of 10,850. The hourly - cycle structure turned bullish, and the short - term support is at the 10,590 line. The strategy is to prepare for low - buying in the hourly cycle, and you can start from the 15 - minute small cycle (look for opportunities when the 15 - minute correction does not break 10,730 and then there is a positive - line reversal) [12][15]. (5) PX - Logic: There are no new capacity investment plans for PX plants in the next six months, and there are maintenance plans for multiple plants in the second quarter of next year. The medium - term supply pressure is not large. Currently, the downstream PTA still maintains a relatively high operation rate, but with the increase of PTA plant maintenance and the impact of the polyester off - season, the demand expectation has weakened. The overall supply - demand is still in a relatively balanced state. In addition to its own supply - demand, two aspects should be mainly concerned. On the one hand, the cost - end crude oil has been weak recently, and attention should be paid to when the geopolitical drivers brought by the unexpected Russia - Ukraine ceasefire plan and the possible escalation of the situation in Venezuela will appear. On the other hand, the National Development and Reform Commission mentioned again over the weekend to control high - energy - consuming and high - emission projects, and PX is among them. Although it is an old topic, domestic varieties had abnormal movements on Friday night, and it may be traded in the short term (next week) to drive the market upward. At the same time, it was observed that the PX monthly spread structure strengthened again last week, indicating that the market may end the correction. The short - term bullish thinking is still maintained [17][19]. - Technical Analysis: PX shows a short - term upward structure at the hourly level. Today, it increased positions, rushed up, and then pulled back slightly at the end of the session. The short - term upward structure remains unchanged. The standard support at the hourly level is at the 6,700 line, and the 15 - minute level has turned bullish again. The strategy is to hold long positions at the hourly level, with the stop - loss reference at the 6,700 line. Hold long positions in the 15 - minute cycle, with the stop - loss reference at the 6,740 line of the 15 - minute closing price [19]. (6) PTA - Logic: The polyester demand is in the off - season and faces a seasonal decline. There is a slight pressure on PTA due to short - term inventory accumulation, but the profit of upstream PX is relatively high, and the expectation of PTA supply decline is not large. In the short term, it mainly follows the cost PX [22]. - Technical Analysis: PTA shows a short - term upward structure at the hourly level. Today, it rushed up and then pulled back slightly at the end of the session. The volume cooperation is weaker than that of PX. The short - term upward structure remains unchanged. The support at the hourly level is at the 4,620 line (01 contract). The strategy is to still hold long positions at the hourly level, with the stop - loss reference at the 4,620 line (01 contract) [22]. (7) PP - Logic: The fundamental loose pattern of PP - plastics continues, but after the market was super - oversold, combined with the news disturbance of the National Development and Reform Commission's emphasis on controlling high - energy - consuming and high - emission projects over the weekend, short - term expectation trading drives the market to rebound [23]. - Technical Analysis: The short - term downward structure of PP at the hourly level may come to an end. Today, it had a long - yang line with position reduction and heavy volume, and the hourly closing price stood above the short - term pressure of 6,180. The hourly - level decline may end. The strategy is to wait and see in the hourly cycle [23][25]. (8) Methanol - Logic: The port inventory flows to the inland, maintaining continuous inventory reduction, but the downstream MTO maintenance has appeared, and the expectation is still weak. In addition to supply - demand, the National Development and Reform Commission emphasized the control of high - energy - consuming and high - emission projects and the rectification of involution - style competition over the weekend. Domestic industrial products had a general increase on Friday night, and the methanol market may rebound following the sentiment in the short term [27]. - Technical Analysis: Methanol shows a medium - term downward and short - term downward structure at the daily level. It is regarded as a rebound today. The short - term pressure above the 05 contract is at the 2,150 line. The strategy is to wait and see in the hourly cycle [27]. (9) PVC - Logic: The supply - demand aspect still has a pattern of high supply, weak demand, and high inventory, but the current valuation is low and there is no value in chasing short positions. At the same time, the National Development and Reform Commission emphasized the control of high - energy - consuming and high - emission projects over the weekend, and PVC is also among them. In the short term, it may be traded to drive the market to rebound [30]. - Technical Analysis: PVC shows a medium - term downward structure at the daily level, and the short - term downward structure at the hourly level may come to an end. Today, there was a huge long - yang line with position reduction and heavy volume, and the market showed obvious signs of short - sellers leaving. At the same time, technically, it stood above the short - term pressure of 4,270. The hourly - level decline may end. The strategy is to wait and see in the hourly cycle, and in the 15 - minute small cycle, you can look for opportunities to try long positions after a pullback and then an increase in positions and a positive - line reversal [30]. (10) Ethylene Glycol - Logic: The losses of ethylene glycol plants have expanded, and the maintenance plans have increased. The domestic supply pressure is expected to be alleviated, but the port inventory is still accumulating, and the increase in port pre - arrivals continues to put pressure on the market fundamentals. However, the National Development and Reform Commission emphasized the control of high - energy - consuming and high - emission projects over the weekend, and in the short term, it may be traded to drive the market to rebound. In the short term, ethylene glycol may run weakly in an oscillating manner [32][33]. - Technical Analysis: EG shows a medium - term downward structure at the daily level and a downward structure at the hourly level. Today, it had a long - yang line with position reduction and heavy volume for a rebound, but it has not yet stood above the short - term pressure of 3,700. The strategy is to wait and see in the hourly cycle [33]. (11) Plastic - Logic: The fundamental loose pattern of PP - plastics continues, but after the market was super - oversold, combined with the news disturbance of the National Development and Reform Commission's emphasis on controlling high - energy - consuming and high - emission projects over the weekend, short - term expectation trading drives the market to rebound [34]. - Technical Analysis: Plastic shows a medium - term downward structure at the daily level and a downward structure at the hourly level. Today, it had a long - yang line with position reduction and heavy volume, but it has not yet stood above the short - term pressure of 6,550. The strategy is to wait and see in the hourly cycle [34]. (12) Soda Ash - Logic: The pattern of high supply and high inventory of soda ash continues. Although the inventory has decreased continuously in the past two weeks, the inventory reduction speed has slowed down significantly. The short - term inventory pressure has improved, but there is no reversal driver for the medium - term fundamentals, and the cost - performance of continuing to hold unilateral short positions has decreased. The National Development and Reform Commission emphasized the control of high - energy - consuming and high - emission projects over the weekend, and soda ash is also among them. In the short term, it may be traded to drive the market to rebound. The remaining short positions established in August can stop profit and exit [38]. - Technical Analysis: The short - term downward structure of soda ash at the hourly level may come to an end. Today, it had a long - yang line with heavy volume and position reduction, and the hourly price stood above the short - term pressure of 1,120. The short - term decline may end. For the unilateral strategy, stop profit for the remaining short positions at the hourly cycle established in August [38]. (13) Caustic Soda - Logic: The pattern of high supply and high inventory remains unchanged. It is the off - season for traditional downstream demand. With the decline of the alumina operation rate due to losses, the demand for alumina has weakened. The supply - demand drive is still downward without a reversal, but there is no space for chasing short positions in the current market. The National Development and Reform Commission emphasized the control of high - energy - consuming and high - emission projects over the weekend, and caustic soda is also among them. In the short term, it may be traded to drive the market to rebound [42]. - Technical Analysis: Caustic soda shows a downward structure at the hourly level. Today, it had a long - yang line with heavy volume and position reduction, and the hourly price tested the short - term pressure of 2,180 but has not effectively stood above it. The strategy is to wait and see in the hourly cycle [42].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant information provided 2. Core View of the Report - The cotton futures price has risen significantly due to strong downstream demand, high spinning mill operating rates, improved Sino - US economic and trade relations, and expected improvement in textile exports. The rapeseed oil price has declined as Australian rapeseed arrivals may increase supply, and the weakness of related palm oil has also dragged it down. The egg price has a limited rebound due to high inventory and weak terminal demand. The soybean meal shows a near - strong and far - weak trend. The hog price has limited rebound due to sufficient supply. The sugar price continues to fall due to the pressure of new sugar listing [1] 3. Summary by Related Catalogs 3.1 Agricultural Product Sector Overview - Cotton futures prices have risen significantly, with downstream demand strong and spinning mills having high operating rates. The improvement in Sino - US economic and trade relations has improved the export expectations of textiles, and the cotton main contract has broken through the 14,000 integer mark, with the upward space opened. Rapeseed oil has declined as Australian rapeseed arrivals may lead to increased supply, and the weakness of related palm oil has also dragged it down [1] 3.2 Variety Strategy Tracking 3.2.1 Cotton - The focus is on the significant rise of cotton. The main 2605 contract has broken through 14,000, opening the upward space. Supported by strong demand, as of December 4, the national cotton sales rate was 37.3%, a year - on - year increase of 21.9 percentage points. Xinjiang's industrial policy may reduce the cotton planting area by about 10% next year. Technically, it is strong, and the strategy is to continue to go long on dips [2] 3.2.2 Rapeseed Oil - The focus is on the significant decline of rapeseed oil. The main 2605 contract has fallen significantly. Although the customs has tightened the inspection of non - genetically modified rapeseed oil imports, the impact on actual supply and demand is limited. The arrival of Australian rapeseed will increase supply, and overseas production is abundant. Palm oil is also weak. Technically, it is weak, and the strategy is to lightly short with a stop - loss reference of the 5 - day moving average at 9233 [3] 3.2.3 Egg - The focus is on the low - level rebound of eggs. The main 2602 contract has rebounded but has not changed the downward trend. The egg production is sufficient, the inventory consumption is the main task at all links, and the terminal demand support is weak. Technically, it is still weak, and the strategy is to lightly short at the resistance level [5] 3.2.4 Soybean Meal - The focus is on the near - strong and far - weak trend of soybean meal. The January contract is strong, but the main 2605 contract is weak. Although there are rumors about the extension of soybean customs clearance time, the domestic soybean supply is sufficient, and the oil mill's high - pressure production keeps the soybean meal inventory high. Technically, it is weak, and the strategy is to lightly short at the resistance level [8] 3.2.5 Hog - The focus is on the low - level fluctuation of hogs. The main 2603 contract has limited rebound and continues to move sideways. Although the cold weather has increased consumer demand, the high inventory and the expected concentrated slaughter at the end of the year limit the rebound space. The strategy is to conduct short - term trading [9][11] 3.2.6 Sugar - The focus is on the continued decline of sugar. The main 2605 contract has fallen after a brief rise. With the progress of sugar cane crushing in Guangxi and Yunnan, the new sugar supply pressure is increasing. Technically, it is weak, and the strategy is to lightly short with a resistance level at 5227 [12]

Report Industry Investment Rating There is no information provided in the report regarding the industry investment rating. Core Viewpoints of the Report The agricultural products sector shows mixed trends. Rapeseed oil has rebounded strongly, cotton has broken through and moved upward, while hog prices remain weak. Different varieties have different influencing factors and market outlooks [1]. Summary by Related Catalogs 1. Agricultural Products Sector Overview - Rapeseed oil has rebounded strongly due to customs inspections on non - GMO rapeseed oil imports and potential overseas demand growth. Cotton has broken through and moved upward because of strong downstream demand. Hog prices are weak as supply growth exceeds demand growth [1]. 2. Variety Strategy Tracking (1) Rapeseed Oil: Strong Rise - Focus: The rapeseed oil led the overall rise in the oil and fat sector. The main 2605 contract rebounded strongly, driven by customs inspections on non - GMO rapeseed oil imports and expected overseas demand growth. - Reasons: Customs inspections on non - GMO rapeseed oil imports led to some port rejections, boosting bullish sentiment. Technical oversold conditions caused a rebound. Germany's new bill may increase rapeseed oil demand. Domestic rapeseed oil inventory decreased, with the inventory at 40.6 million tons at the end of the 49th week, a 4.47% week - on - week decline. Palm oil and soybean oil also rebounded [2]. - Strategy: The 2605 contract of rapeseed oil has strengthened technically. Look for support levels to go long with a light position. Close short positions in palm oil and conduct short - term trading [2]. (2) Soybean Meal: Near - term Strong, Long - term Weak - Focus: Soybean meal contracts show a pattern of near - term strength and long - term weakness. The January contract rose due to stronger raw materials, while the 2605 contract remained weak. - Reasons: Abundant domestic imported soybeans. Rumors of extended customs clearance time for imported soybeans drove up the price of soybean No. 2 futures and near - term soybean meal contracts. The 2605 contract is under pressure as it corresponds to the peak period of South American soybean imports next year [3]. - Strategy: The 2605 contract of soybean meal is technically weak. Continue to hold short positions with a light position [3]. (3) Hogs: Weak Downward - Focus: The main 2603 contract of hogs is moving downward weakly due to abundant supply. - Reasons: High hog inventory, scale pig enterprises' year - end sales push, and concentrated出栏 of second - fattened and back - pressured hogs lead to sufficient supply. Although terminal consumption such as southern bacon - making and northern sausage - making increases, the increase in consumption is less than the increase in supply [6]. - Strategy: The 2603 contract of hogs is weak. Enter short positions for the short - term and set stop - losses [6]. (4) Eggs: Near - term Weak, Long - term Strong - Focus: The main 2603 contract of eggs fluctuates narrowly, and the weak trend remains unchanged. - Reasons: High laying - hen inventory leads to high supply pressure. Although market demand increases near the end of the year, the latest data shows a 0.70% week - on - week decline in old - hen出栏 as of December 4. There are still uncertainties in capacity reduction [7][9]. - Strategy: The 2603 contract of eggs is technically weak. Short with a light position [9]. (5) Sugar: Oscillating Downward - Focus: The main 2605 contract of Zhengzhou sugar oscillates at a low level due to the supply pressure of new sugar. - Reasons: Seasonal supply pressure of sugar is high as 64 sugar mills in Guangxi and Yunnan have started crushing. Although end - of - year stocking demand is approaching, it limits the downward space of sugar prices [10]. - Strategy: The 2605 contract of sugar is trading sideways at a low level. Close short positions and conduct short - term trading [10]. (6) Cotton: Breaking Upward - Focus: The main 2605 contract of cotton has broken through and moved upward, supported by demand resilience. - Reasons: China's cotton harvesting is almost finished. As of December 4, the national cotton sales rate is 37.3%, a 21.9 - percentage - point year - on - year increase, indicating strong downstream consumption. Improved Sino - US economic and trade relations are beneficial for cotton textile exports. Xinjiang textile enterprises have high operating rates and stable profits, with year - end restocking needs [12]. - Strategy: The 2605 contract of cotton has opened up upward space. Go long on dips [12].

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Ratings - No investment ratings provided in the report. 2. Core Views of the Report - The lithium carbonate futures market is strong, with the main 2605 contract up 3.02% to 98,880 yuan/ton. The market continues to destock, indicating strong downstream demand. The low inventory of downstream lithium iron phosphate companies and the slower - than - expected resumption of upstream lithium mines support the futures price. With the expected increase in CATL's production in Q1 and the acceleration of North American energy storage system installations, there is strong demand expectation. The operation strategy is to go long on dips [1][2][3]. - The polysilicon futures market is also strong, with the main 2605 contract up 2.13% to 55,765 yuan/ton. Affected by the establishment of the joint platform, the price is expected to remain strong. Although the supply side has seasonal production cuts, the inventory is accumulating, and the downstream demand is weak. The short - term trend may be oscillatingly strong [7]. - The industrial silicon futures market is oscillating. The 2605 contract fell 0.03% to 8,230 yuan/ton. Affected by the production cut expectations of polysilicon and silicone, the market is in a situation of weak supply and demand, with inventory at a three - year high and continuous accumulation for three weeks. The price is expected to oscillate weakly [11][14]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Lithium Carbonate - **Market Trend**: The lithium carbonate futures are strongly trending, with the main 2605 contract up 3.02% from the previous trading day's closing price, reaching 98,880 yuan/ton [1]. - **Core Logic**: The weekly production and inventory data show a continuous destocking pattern. In November, the inventory decreased by over 10,000 tons, and since December, the inventory has been decreasing by 2,000 - 3,000 tons per week, indicating strong downstream demand. The low inventory of downstream lithium iron phosphate companies and the slower - than - expected resumption of upstream lithium mines support the futures price. There are also strong demand expectations from the increase in CATL's production in Q1 and the acceleration of North American energy storage system installations [1][2][3]. - **Technical Analysis**: The overall open interest of lithium carbonate futures continues to rise significantly, and the market is still controlled by bulls. The main 2605 contract has a standard "Three - Line Resonance Method" combined with a volume - increasing upward entry opportunity at 9:15, with a profit - loss ratio of 1:2. The 5 - minute cycle of the main 2605 contract is a red - line, blue - band, red - ladder pattern, and the overnight 2 - hour cycle is a strong red - ladder line, with a long - short dividing water level of 92,160 yuan/ton [3]. - **Strategy Suggestion**: In the context of "strong reality and strong expectation", the operation strategy is to go long on dips. Intraday operations can refer to the Band Winner indicator during the 8:30 morning live broadcast [3]. Polysilicon - **Market Trend**: The polysilicon futures are strongly trending, with the main 2605 contract up 2.13% from the previous trading day's closing price, reaching 55,765 yuan/ton [7]. - **Core Logic**: Affected by the establishment of the joint platform, the price continues to be strong. The establishment of the purchasing platform indicates the certainty of future production cuts, and it is difficult for the price to weaken in the future. Fundamentally, there are seasonal production cuts on the supply side, but the inventory is accumulating. The downstream industry demand is weak, and the production schedules have declined. The warehouse receipts increased slightly today, and the changes need to be continuously monitored [7]. - **Technical Analysis**: The overall open interest of polysilicon futures has little change, and the market is still controlled by bulls. The main 2605 contract has a standard "Three - Line Resonance Method" combined with a volume - increasing upward entry opportunity at 9:30, with a profit - loss ratio of 1:2. The 5 - minute cycle of the 2605 contract is a red - line, red - band, red - ladder pattern, and the overnight 2 - hour cycle is a strong red - ladder line, with a long - short dividing water level of 52,240 yuan/ton [7]. - **Strategy Suggestion**: The polysilicon market may maintain an oscillatingly strong pattern in the short term. Intraday operations can refer to the Band Winner indicator during the 8:30 morning live broadcast [7]. Industrial Silicon - **Market Trend**: The industrial silicon futures are oscillating. The 2605 contract fell 0.03% from the previous trading day's closing price, reaching 8,230 yuan/ton [11]. - **Core Logic**: Affected by the production cut expectations of polysilicon and silicone, the futures price declined at the opening and then oscillated. Fundamentally, the situation of weak supply and demand continues, with the inventory at a three - year high and continuous accumulation for three weeks. Coupled with the downstream production cut expectations, the overall restocking is limited [11][14]. - **Technical Analysis**: The overall open interest of industrial silicon futures has dropped significantly, and the downward driving force has weakened. It is currently in the position - shifting period, and attention should be paid to the 05 contract. The 5 - minute cycle of the 2605 contract is a green - line, blue - band, red - ladder pattern, and the overnight 2 - hour cycle is a weak green - ladder line, with a long - short dividing water level of 8,940 yuan/ton [14]. - **Strategy Suggestion**: After the continuous decline of the futures price, the downward space on the disk is relatively limited, and it is expected to oscillate weakly. It is mainly affected by the downstream polysilicon policy, and attention should be paid to periodic emotional disturbances. Intraday operations can refer to the Band Winner indicator during the 8:30 morning live broadcast [14].

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content Core Viewpoints of the Report - The palm oil market is bearish due to high inventory and low exports, while the soybean market is bullish but with limited upside potential. The hog market is weak due to high supply, and the egg market is pressured by high egg - laying hen inventory. The sugar market is weak due to high supply, and the cotton market is supported by high sales rates but with increasing inventory [1][2][7][8][11][12][15] Summary by Relevant Catalogs I. Agricultural Products Sector Overview - Palm oil is accelerating its decline due to the strongly bearish MPOB monthly supply - demand report. Domestic soybeans (Dou Er) are rising strongly due to unconfirmed news of import soybean clearance, but the upside may be limited. Hog price rebounds are blocked by increased supply, and the market may enter a low - level operation again [1] II. Variety Strategy Tracking (1) Palm Oil: Continuous Decline - The palm oil 2605 contract is continuously falling, pressured by the bearish MPOB supply - demand monthly report. In November, Malaysian palm oil inventory increased by 13.04% to 284 tons, much higher than expected; production decreased by 5.3% to 194 tons, lower than expected; exports decreased by 28.13% to 121 tons, lower than expected. The technical indicators are weak, and the strategy is to go short with a light position on rallies [2][5] (2) Dou Er and Soybean Meal: Sharp Rise - The Dou Er 2601 contract is rising sharply, and the soybean meal January contract is also rising. The unconfirmed news of extended import soybean clearance has boosted the market sentiment. The USDA's December soybean supply - demand report has little impact on the soybean market. The strategy for Dou Er is to go long short - term with a stop - loss, and for soybean meal 2605, hold short positions [7] (3) Hogs: Rebound Blocked, Weak and Volatile - The hog 2603 contract's rebound is blocked, and it turns weak again. Although terminal consumption has increased, high pig inventory, high planned slaughter volume of large pig farms, and pig diseases have increased supply and suppressed pig prices. The strategy is to close long positions and trade short - term [8] (4) Eggs: Forward Contracts are Weak - The egg 2603 contract is weakly declining, pressured by high egg - laying hen inventory. Although market demand has increased at the end of the year, the latest data shows a decline in old hen slaughter, and the reduction of production capacity is still uncertain. The strategy is to go short with a light position [11] (5) Sugar: Declining in Volatility - The Zhengzhou sugar 2605 contract is declining in a weak operation, affected by the supply pressure of new sugar listing. The seasonal supply pressure of sugar is still large, and downstream demand is average. The strategy is to go short with a light position, with a resistance at 5242 [12][14] (6) Cotton: Closing Up in Volatility - The cotton 2605 contract is rising in volatility and running at a high level. The high sales rate of cotton in Xinjiang supports the price, but commercial inventory is increasing. The strategy is to go long with a light position, with a stop - loss reference to the 10 - day moving average [15]

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Ratings No investment ratings for the industry are provided in the report [1][4][11] 2. Core Views - **Carbonate Lithium**: The carbonate lithium futures market is expected to be strong in the short - term. With a large - scale battery purchase agreement in the North American market, there is a strong demand expectation. If inventory continues to decline, the futures price may rise further. It's recommended to buy on dips [1] - **Polysilicon**: The polysilicon futures may fluctuate with a slight upward trend. The establishment of a storage platform indicates future production cuts, but the downstream demand is weak, and attention should be paid to the change of warehouse receipts [4][7] - **Industrial Silicon**: The industrial silicon futures market is expected to remain weak. The supply - demand pattern of the industry is weak, with high inventory and limited restocking due to downstream production cut expectations [11] 3. Summary by Commodity Carbonate Lithium - **Market Trend**: The main 2605 contract of carbonate lithium futures rose 3.43% to 95,980 yuan/ton compared with the previous trading day's closing price [1] - **Core Logic**: Influenced by a large - scale battery purchase agreement in the North American market, there is a strong demand expectation. The inventory data to be released tomorrow afternoon may affect the price [1] - **Technical Analysis**: The overall position increased significantly, and it is still controlled by bulls. The 5 - minute cycle of the 2605 contract shows a green line, red band, and red ladder. The overnight 2 - hour cycle shows a strong red ladder, with a long - short dividing line at 92,160 yuan/ton [1] - **Strategy Suggestion**: Buy on dips, and refer to the Band Winner indicator during intraday trading with the help of the 8:30 am live broadcast [1] Polysilicon - **Market Trend**: The main 2605 contract of polysilicon futures fell 0.03% to 54,600 yuan/ton compared with the previous trading day's closing price [4] - **Core Logic**: Affected by the establishment of a joint platform, the price opened higher. The establishment of the storage platform means future production cuts, but the downstream demand is weak, and the inventory is still accumulating [4] - **Technical Analysis**: The overall position decreased slightly, and it is still controlled by bulls. The 5 - minute cycle of the 2605 contract shows a green line, red band, and green ladder. The overnight 2 - hour cycle shows a weak green ladder, with a long - short dividing line at 54,835 yuan/ton [7] - **Strategy Suggestion**: It may fluctuate with a slight upward trend. Refer to the Band Winner indicator during intraday trading with the help of the 8:30 am live broadcast [7] Industrial Silicon - **Market Trend**: The 2605 contract of industrial silicon futures fell 1.43% to 8,255 yuan/ton compared with the previous trading day's closing price [11] - **Core Logic**: Affected by the production cut expectations of polysilicon and organic silicon, the supply - demand pattern is weak, and the inventory is at a three - year high with continuous accumulation for three weeks [11] - **Technical Analysis**: The overall position increased slightly, and it is controlled by bears. The 5 - minute cycle of the 2605 contract shows a green line, blue band, and green ladder. The overnight 2 - hour cycle shows a weak green ladder, with a long - short dividing line at 8,950 yuan/ton [11] - **Strategy Suggestion**: It is expected to remain weak. Pay attention to the influence of downstream polysilicon policies and short - term emotional fluctuations. Refer to the Band Winner indicator during intraday trading with the help of the 8:30 am live broadcast [11]

Report Summary 1. Investment Rating The report does not provide an overall industry investment rating. 2. Core View The report analyzes the market conditions of various chemical products, including crude oil, styrene, rubber, and others. It suggests that geopolitical factors are likely to be the main drivers of the market in December. While some products show short - term positive trends, others face supply - demand imbalances and potential risks. Overall, it advises different trading strategies for each product based on their fundamentals and technical analysis [3][5]. 3. Summary by Product Crude Oil - **Logic**: Supply - demand and macro drivers have a weak impact on the market. The mid - term supply surplus is the main trend, but the market still trades based on supply - demand changes. Macro factors are short - term positive, and geopolitical factors are likely to be the main drivers in December. Short - term bullish but difficult to trade due to geopolitical risks; mid - term, look for shorting opportunities after a pulse - type upward movement [4][5]. - **Technical Analysis**: The daily - level shows a mid - term downward structure, and the hourly - level is in a short - term oscillation. Today, it decreased slightly with reduced positions, and the short - term structure remains unchanged. The strategy is to wait and see in the hourly cycle [5]. Styrene - **Logic**: Short - term supply decreased due to increased maintenance after a significant profit decline, and inventory reduction supported the rebound. However, further upward movement requires support from the cost side (crude oil). Mid - term, the port inventory is at a five - year high, and there is a high probability of inventory reaching a new high in February if the demand remains weak after the New Year [8]. - **Technical Analysis**: The hourly - level shows a short - term oscillation structure. Today, it corrected with increased positions, and the structure became unclear. The strategy is to wait and see in the hourly cycle [9]. Rubber - **Logic**: There is no major contradiction in the short - term. Tire demand is unlikely to increase significantly, and the supply side is in the peak tapping season in Southeast Asia. The inventory in Qingdao is seasonally increasing, and there is no obvious upward or downward driver. Consider it as an oscillating market [10]. - **Technical Analysis**: The daily - level shows a mid - term downward structure, and the hourly - level is in a short - term oscillation. Today, it increased with reduced positions, and the hourly - level structure is unclear. The strategy is to wait and see in the hourly cycle [10]. Synthetic Rubber - **Logic**: The core factor is the raw material butadiene. The price of butadiene is low recently, leading to short - term improvement in supply - demand and reduced pressure. However, there is still a risk of liquid chemical inventory over - filling in the mid - term due to high supply and inventory [12]. - **Technical Analysis**: The daily - level shows a mid - term downward structure, and the hourly - level is in a short - term oscillation. Today, it increased with increased positions, and the hourly - level remains in an oscillating state. The strategy is to wait and see in the hourly cycle [12]. PX - **Logic**: The overseas spread has weakened significantly, and the anti - seasonal US aromatics blending oil logic has ended, reducing the upward driving force. However, the supply - demand of PX is still relatively strong among energy - chemical products. Pay attention to the impact of the cost side (crude oil) [17]. - **Technical Analysis**: The hourly - level shows a short - term upward structure. Today, it continued to correct with reduced positions, but the short - term upward structure remains unchanged. The hourly - level support is at 6700. The strategy is to hold long positions in the hourly cycle, with a stop - loss at 6700, and look for secondary entry opportunities for non - entered long positions after the correction ends [17][18]. PTA - **Logic**: The overseas spread has weakened significantly, and the anti - seasonal US aromatics blending oil logic has ended, reducing the upward driving force. PTA continues to reduce inventory, and the short - term supply - demand pressure is not large. Pay attention to the cost side [18]. - **Technical Analysis**: The hourly - level shows a short - term upward structure. Today, it tested the short - term support with reduced positions, and the short - term upward structure remains unchanged. The hourly - level support for the 01 contract is at 4620. The strategy is to hold long positions in the hourly cycle, with a stop - loss at 4620 (01 contract), and look for secondary entry opportunities for non - entered long positions after the correction ends [18]. PP - **Logic**: Supply is at a high level, and demand is weak. The supply - demand is still weak without a reversal driver. Be vigilant about short - term geopolitical risks in crude oil [21]. - **Technical Analysis**: The hourly - level shows a short - term downward structure. Today, it decreased with reduced positions. The short - term downward structure remains, and the short - term pressure above is at 6220. The strategy is to wait and see in the hourly cycle [21]. Methanol - **Logic**: Domestic methanol production is at a high level, and downstream demand is stable but weak. The port inventory has been decreasing, but the rate of decrease slowed down last week, and the inventory is still at a high level. The upward space is limited, and the previous upward driving force has ended. No longer consider short - term long positions [23][25]. - **Technical Analysis**: The daily - level shows a mid - term downward structure, and the short - term is in an oscillation. Today, it oscillated within the day, and the short - term structure is unclear. The 05 contract is weaker than the 01 contract, indicating high inventory pressure. The strategy is to wait and see in the hourly cycle [25]. PVC - **Logic**: There are few future maintenance plans, and high production is maintained. However, the profit has declined, and there are more expectations of production cuts. The demand side (downstream real estate) is not optimistic, and the social inventory is at a high level. The supply - demand has no upward reversal driver, but the valuation is low, so there is no value in chasing short positions [28]. - **Technical Analysis**: The daily - level shows a mid - term downward structure, and the hourly - level shows a short - term downward structure. Today, it decreased with reduced positions. Pay attention to the short - term pressure above at 4445. The strategy is to wait and see in the hourly cycle [28]. Ethylene Glycol - **Logic**: The previous domestic maintenance devices have resumed production, and new production capacity has been put into operation, increasing the supply pressure. Downstream polyester demand is stable, and the inventory accumulation pattern continues. The supply - demand driving force is downward. Be vigilant about short - term geopolitical risks in crude oil [30]. - **Technical Analysis**: The daily - level shows a mid - term downward structure, and the hourly - level shows a downward structure. Today, it oscillated within the day. Pay attention to the short - term pressure above at 3720. The strategy is to wait and see in the hourly cycle [30]. Plastic - **Logic**: Supply is at a high level, and demand is weak. The supply - demand is still weak without a reversal driver. Be vigilant about short - term geopolitical risks in crude oil [32]. - **Technical Analysis**: The daily - level shows a mid - term downward structure, and the hourly - level shows a downward structure. Today, it oscillated within the day. The short - term pressure above is at 6670. The strategy is to wait and see in the hourly cycle [32]. Soda Ash - **Logic**: The high - supply and high - inventory pattern continues, and the downstream glass production lines have cut production, suppressing the demand for soda ash. Although the fundamental downward driving force remains, the cost - performance of holding short positions is reduced [35]. - **Technical Analysis**: The hourly - level shows a downward structure. Today, it decreased with reduced positions, and the downward structure remains unchanged. The short - term pressure above has moved down to 1120. The strategy is to hold the remaining short positions in the hourly cycle cautiously with a stop - profit at 1120 [35]. Caustic Soda - **Logic**: Supply production is at a high level, and the weekly production has increased year - on - year, reaching a new high. It is the off - season for traditional downstream demand, and the demand from alumina has weakened due to reduced production. The inventory has increased for three consecutive weeks, reaching a new historical high year - on - year. The supply - demand driving force is downward without a reversal, but there is no space to chase short - positions before an obvious rebound [37]. - **Technical Analysis**: The hourly - level shows a downward structure. Today, it rebounded with reduced positions, and the downward structure remains unchanged. The short - term pressure above is at 2135. The strategy is to wait and see in the hourly cycle [37].

Report Summary 1. Industry Investment Rating - The report does not provide an overall investment rating for the industry. 2. Core View - The agricultural product sector shows mixed trends. Soybean meal and oils are on a downward trend, while live pigs are rebounding. Eggs are falling, sugar is rebounding from a low level, and cotton is fluctuating narrowly [1]. 3. Summary by Variety Soybean Meal - The soybean meal main contract 2605 continues to decline due to the weak performance of US soybeans and high domestic inventories. From January to November 2025, China's soybean imports reached 1.0379 billion tons, a year - on - year increase of 6.9%, and the inventory has rebounded to around 1.2 million tons. The technical chart shows a downward trend, and the strategy is to lightly short at resistance levels [1][2]. Oils - The three major oil main contracts 2605 are all falling. The market expects the end - of - November palm oil inventory in Malaysia to surge 7.78% month - on - month to a 6.5 - year high, and crude oil has tumbled. Domestically, the supply of soybean oil and rapeseed oil is sufficient. The palm oil main contract 2605 has entered a downward trend technically, and short - term operations are recommended before the release of the MPOB report [1][3]. Live Pigs - The live pig main contract 2603 continues to rebound. A new cold wave is expected to increase transportation costs and boost consumption such as southern curing and northern sausage - making. The technical chart shows an upward trend, and the strategy is to hold a light long position with a support level of 11335 [1][5]. Eggs - The egg main contracts 2601 and 2602 are both falling, with the 2602 contract having a larger decline. The high egg - laying hen inventory and the uncertain de - capacity are pressuring the prices. The technical chart shows a downward trend, and the strategy is to lightly short, with the resistance level of the 2601 contract at 3134 [7]. Sugar - The Zhengzhou sugar main contract 2601 rebounds from a low level. Although the year - end consumption demand may improve, the seasonal supply pressure is still large. The cost of production provides some support, and the strategy is to hold short positions [9]. Cotton - The cotton main contract 2601 fluctuates narrowly. The high sales rate in Xinjiang supports the price, but the commercial inventory is increasing. As of December 5, the cotton commercial total inventory was 4.465 million tons, a month - on - month increase of 6.83%. The strategy is to close long positions and conduct short - term trading [11].

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. Core Viewpoints - Crude oil overnight retraced its previous gains without any news, remaining in a sideways pattern awaiting geopolitical drivers. The geopolitical situation suggests a pessimistic outlook for a cease - fire in the Russia - Ukraine conflict, and there is an upward revision risk if the negotiation fails again. There is also an expectation of an escalation of risks in the Caribbean region, which could lead to a pulse - like upward movement [1][3]. - For the chemical sector, the aromatics (PX, PTA, EB) that were previously bullish have seen a weakening of the upward drive as overseas crack spreads have declined significantly. However, PX still has a relatively healthy fundamental situation, and styrene has seen short - term supply - demand improvement due to inventory reduction [1]. Summary by Directory Crude Oil - **Logic**: The impact of supply - demand and macro - drivers on the crude oil market is still weak, with a mid - term oversupply expectation. However, there was trading based on supply - demand changes after last week's unexpected inventory build in EIA data. Macro factors are currently bullish, and geopolitical factors may be the main driver in December. Short - term outlook is bullish but difficult to trade, and there will be mid - term short - selling opportunities after a pulse - like upward movement [2][3]. - **Technical Analysis**: The daily chart shows a mid - term downward structure, and the hourly chart shows a short - term sideways pattern. The strategy is to wait and observe on the hourly cycle [3]. Styrene - **Logic**: Short - term supply has decreased due to more maintenance after a significant profit decline, leading to inventory reduction and supply - demand improvement. However, further upward movement requires support from crude oil prices. Mid - term inventory is at a five - year high, and there is a high risk of inventory over - build if demand remains weak after the New Year [6]. - **Technical Analysis**: The hourly chart shows a short - term upward structure. The strategy is to wait for a pull - back without breaking the support at 6520 and then look for a long - entry opportunity [6]. Rubber - **Logic**: There is no major contradiction in the short term. Tire demand has limited growth potential, and the supply side is in the peak tapping season in Southeast Asia, with normal inventory build - up in Qingdao. The market should be viewed with a sideways outlook [9]. - **Technical Analysis**: The daily chart shows a mid - term downward structure, and the hourly chart shows a short - term sideways pattern. The strategy is to wait and observe on the hourly cycle [9]. Synthetic Rubber - **Logic**: The core factor is the price of raw material butadiene. Short - term supply - demand has improved as downstream replenished inventory due to low butadiene prices, but there is still mid - term inventory pressure [11]. - **Technical Analysis**: The daily chart shows a mid - term downward structure, and the hourly chart shows a short - term sideways pattern. The strategy is to wait and observe on the hourly cycle [11]. PX - **Logic**: The upward drive has weakened as the off - season US aromatics blending oil logic has ended. However, PX supply - demand remains strong, with high operating rates, no new plant commissioning in the short term, and rising downstream PTA operating rates. Attention should be paid to the impact of crude oil prices [14]. - **Technical Analysis**: The hourly chart shows a short - term upward structure. The strategy is to hold long positions with a stop - loss at 6700 and look for opportunities to add positions after the pull - back ends [14]. PTA - **Logic**: The upward drive has weakened as the off - season US aromatics blending oil logic has ended. PTA is still reducing inventory, and short - term supply - demand pressure is low. Attention should be paid to the impact of crude oil prices [18]. - **Technical Analysis**: The hourly chart shows a short - term upward structure. The strategy is to hold long positions with a stop - loss at 4620 (01 contract) and look for a second long - entry opportunity after the pull - back ends [18]. PP - **Logic**: Supply is high and demand is weak, with no sign of a reversal. However, short - term geopolitical risks in crude oil need to be watched [20]. - **Technical Analysis**: The hourly chart shows a short - term downward structure. The strategy is to wait and observe on the hourly cycle [20]. Methanol - **Logic**: Domestic methanol operating rates remain high, and downstream demand is weak. Although port inventory has decreased, the rate of decrease has slowed, and inventory is still at a high level. The previous upward drive has ended, and the supply - demand logic is still weak [22][24]. - **Technical Analysis**: The daily chart shows a mid - term downward structure and a short - term sideways pattern. The strategy is to wait and observe on the hourly cycle [24]. PVC - **Logic**: There are few future maintenance plans, and high operating rates are maintained. However, there is an increasing expectation of production cuts due to falling profits. Demand from the downstream real estate sector is weak, and social and factory inventories are high. The valuation is low, and there is no value in short - selling [27]. - **Technical Analysis**: The daily chart shows a mid - term downward structure, and the hourly chart shows a short - term downward structure. The strategy is to wait and observe on the hourly cycle [27]. Ethylene Glycol - **Logic**: Domestic operating rates are high due to the resumption of previously shut - down plants and new capacity additions. Downstream polyester demand is stable, and the inventory build - up pattern continues. However, short - term geopolitical risks in crude oil need to be watched [29]. - **Technical Analysis**: The daily chart shows a mid - term downward structure, and the hourly chart shows a short - term downward structure. The strategy is to wait and observe on the hourly cycle, paying attention to the short - term resistance at 3720 [29]. Plastic - **Logic**: Supply is high and demand is weak, with no sign of a reversal. However, short - term geopolitical risks in crude oil need to be watched [32]. - **Technical Analysis**: The daily chart shows a mid - term downward structure, and the hourly chart shows a short - term downward structure. The strategy is to wait and observe on the hourly cycle, paying attention to the short - term resistance at 6670 [32]. Soda Ash - **Logic**: The high - supply and high - inventory situation continues, and downstream glass production lines have cut production, suppressing demand. Although the downward fundamental drive remains, the cost - effectiveness of holding short positions is decreasing [35]. - **Technical Analysis**: The hourly chart shows a downward structure. The strategy is to hold the remaining short positions cautiously, with a stop - profit at 1155 [35]. Caustic Soda - **Logic**: Supply operating rates remain high, and traditional downstream demand is in the off - season. Alumina demand has weakened due to reduced production, and inventory has reached a new high. The supply - demand drive is downward, but there is no space for short - selling before a significant rebound [37]. - **Technical Analysis**: The hourly chart shows a downward structure. The strategy is to wait and observe on the hourly cycle, paying attention to the short - term resistance at 2135 [37].