Report Industry Investment Rating There is no information provided in the report regarding the industry investment rating. Core Viewpoints of the Report The agricultural products sector shows mixed trends. Rapeseed oil has rebounded strongly, cotton has broken through and moved upward, while hog prices remain weak. Different varieties have different influencing factors and market outlooks [1]. Summary by Related Catalogs 1. Agricultural Products Sector Overview - Rapeseed oil has rebounded strongly due to customs inspections on non - GMO rapeseed oil imports and potential overseas demand growth. Cotton has broken through and moved upward because of strong downstream demand. Hog prices are weak as supply growth exceeds demand growth [1]. 2. Variety Strategy Tracking (1) Rapeseed Oil: Strong Rise - Focus: The rapeseed oil led the overall rise in the oil and fat sector. The main 2605 contract rebounded strongly, driven by customs inspections on non - GMO rapeseed oil imports and expected overseas demand growth. - Reasons: Customs inspections on non - GMO rapeseed oil imports led to some port rejections, boosting bullish sentiment. Technical oversold conditions caused a rebound. Germany's new bill may increase rapeseed oil demand. Domestic rapeseed oil inventory decreased, with the inventory at 40.6 million tons at the end of the 49th week, a 4.47% week - on - week decline. Palm oil and soybean oil also rebounded [2]. - Strategy: The 2605 contract of rapeseed oil has strengthened technically. Look for support levels to go long with a light position. Close short positions in palm oil and conduct short - term trading [2]. (2) Soybean Meal: Near - term Strong, Long - term Weak - Focus: Soybean meal contracts show a pattern of near - term strength and long - term weakness. The January contract rose due to stronger raw materials, while the 2605 contract remained weak. - Reasons: Abundant domestic imported soybeans. Rumors of extended customs clearance time for imported soybeans drove up the price of soybean No. 2 futures and near - term soybean meal contracts. The 2605 contract is under pressure as it corresponds to the peak period of South American soybean imports next year [3]. - Strategy: The 2605 contract of soybean meal is technically weak. Continue to hold short positions with a light position [3]. (3) Hogs: Weak Downward - Focus: The main 2603 contract of hogs is moving downward weakly due to abundant supply. - Reasons: High hog inventory, scale pig enterprises' year - end sales push, and concentrated出栏 of second - fattened and back - pressured hogs lead to sufficient supply. Although terminal consumption such as southern bacon - making and northern sausage - making increases, the increase in consumption is less than the increase in supply [6]. - Strategy: The 2603 contract of hogs is weak. Enter short positions for the short - term and set stop - losses [6]. (4) Eggs: Near - term Weak, Long - term Strong - Focus: The main 2603 contract of eggs fluctuates narrowly, and the weak trend remains unchanged. - Reasons: High laying - hen inventory leads to high supply pressure. Although market demand increases near the end of the year, the latest data shows a 0.70% week - on - week decline in old - hen出栏 as of December 4. There are still uncertainties in capacity reduction [7][9]. - Strategy: The 2603 contract of eggs is technically weak. Short with a light position [9]. (5) Sugar: Oscillating Downward - Focus: The main 2605 contract of Zhengzhou sugar oscillates at a low level due to the supply pressure of new sugar. - Reasons: Seasonal supply pressure of sugar is high as 64 sugar mills in Guangxi and Yunnan have started crushing. Although end - of - year stocking demand is approaching, it limits the downward space of sugar prices [10]. - Strategy: The 2605 contract of sugar is trading sideways at a low level. Close short positions and conduct short - term trading [10]. (6) Cotton: Breaking Upward - Focus: The main 2605 contract of cotton has broken through and moved upward, supported by demand resilience. - Reasons: China's cotton harvesting is almost finished. As of December 4, the national cotton sales rate is 37.3%, a 21.9 - percentage - point year - on - year increase, indicating strong downstream consumption. Improved Sino - US economic and trade relations are beneficial for cotton textile exports. Xinjiang textile enterprises have high operating rates and stable profits, with year - end restocking needs [12]. - Strategy: The 2605 contract of cotton has opened up upward space. Go long on dips [12].

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Ratings - No investment ratings provided in the report. 2. Core Views of the Report - The lithium carbonate futures market is strong, with the main 2605 contract up 3.02% to 98,880 yuan/ton. The market continues to destock, indicating strong downstream demand. The low inventory of downstream lithium iron phosphate companies and the slower - than - expected resumption of upstream lithium mines support the futures price. With the expected increase in CATL's production in Q1 and the acceleration of North American energy storage system installations, there is strong demand expectation. The operation strategy is to go long on dips [1][2][3]. - The polysilicon futures market is also strong, with the main 2605 contract up 2.13% to 55,765 yuan/ton. Affected by the establishment of the joint platform, the price is expected to remain strong. Although the supply side has seasonal production cuts, the inventory is accumulating, and the downstream demand is weak. The short - term trend may be oscillatingly strong [7]. - The industrial silicon futures market is oscillating. The 2605 contract fell 0.03% to 8,230 yuan/ton. Affected by the production cut expectations of polysilicon and silicone, the market is in a situation of weak supply and demand, with inventory at a three - year high and continuous accumulation for three weeks. The price is expected to oscillate weakly [11][14]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Lithium Carbonate - **Market Trend**: The lithium carbonate futures are strongly trending, with the main 2605 contract up 3.02% from the previous trading day's closing price, reaching 98,880 yuan/ton [1]. - **Core Logic**: The weekly production and inventory data show a continuous destocking pattern. In November, the inventory decreased by over 10,000 tons, and since December, the inventory has been decreasing by 2,000 - 3,000 tons per week, indicating strong downstream demand. The low inventory of downstream lithium iron phosphate companies and the slower - than - expected resumption of upstream lithium mines support the futures price. There are also strong demand expectations from the increase in CATL's production in Q1 and the acceleration of North American energy storage system installations [1][2][3]. - **Technical Analysis**: The overall open interest of lithium carbonate futures continues to rise significantly, and the market is still controlled by bulls. The main 2605 contract has a standard "Three - Line Resonance Method" combined with a volume - increasing upward entry opportunity at 9:15, with a profit - loss ratio of 1:2. The 5 - minute cycle of the main 2605 contract is a red - line, blue - band, red - ladder pattern, and the overnight 2 - hour cycle is a strong red - ladder line, with a long - short dividing water level of 92,160 yuan/ton [3]. - **Strategy Suggestion**: In the context of "strong reality and strong expectation", the operation strategy is to go long on dips. Intraday operations can refer to the Band Winner indicator during the 8:30 morning live broadcast [3]. Polysilicon - **Market Trend**: The polysilicon futures are strongly trending, with the main 2605 contract up 2.13% from the previous trading day's closing price, reaching 55,765 yuan/ton [7]. - **Core Logic**: Affected by the establishment of the joint platform, the price continues to be strong. The establishment of the purchasing platform indicates the certainty of future production cuts, and it is difficult for the price to weaken in the future. Fundamentally, there are seasonal production cuts on the supply side, but the inventory is accumulating. The downstream industry demand is weak, and the production schedules have declined. The warehouse receipts increased slightly today, and the changes need to be continuously monitored [7]. - **Technical Analysis**: The overall open interest of polysilicon futures has little change, and the market is still controlled by bulls. The main 2605 contract has a standard "Three - Line Resonance Method" combined with a volume - increasing upward entry opportunity at 9:30, with a profit - loss ratio of 1:2. The 5 - minute cycle of the 2605 contract is a red - line, red - band, red - ladder pattern, and the overnight 2 - hour cycle is a strong red - ladder line, with a long - short dividing water level of 52,240 yuan/ton [7]. - **Strategy Suggestion**: The polysilicon market may maintain an oscillatingly strong pattern in the short term. Intraday operations can refer to the Band Winner indicator during the 8:30 morning live broadcast [7]. Industrial Silicon - **Market Trend**: The industrial silicon futures are oscillating. The 2605 contract fell 0.03% from the previous trading day's closing price, reaching 8,230 yuan/ton [11]. - **Core Logic**: Affected by the production cut expectations of polysilicon and silicone, the futures price declined at the opening and then oscillated. Fundamentally, the situation of weak supply and demand continues, with the inventory at a three - year high and continuous accumulation for three weeks. Coupled with the downstream production cut expectations, the overall restocking is limited [11][14]. - **Technical Analysis**: The overall open interest of industrial silicon futures has dropped significantly, and the downward driving force has weakened. It is currently in the position - shifting period, and attention should be paid to the 05 contract. The 5 - minute cycle of the 2605 contract is a green - line, blue - band, red - ladder pattern, and the overnight 2 - hour cycle is a weak green - ladder line, with a long - short dividing water level of 8,940 yuan/ton [14]. - **Strategy Suggestion**: After the continuous decline of the futures price, the downward space on the disk is relatively limited, and it is expected to oscillate weakly. It is mainly affected by the downstream polysilicon policy, and attention should be paid to periodic emotional disturbances. Intraday operations can refer to the Band Winner indicator during the 8:30 morning live broadcast [14].

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content Core Viewpoints of the Report - The palm oil market is bearish due to high inventory and low exports, while the soybean market is bullish but with limited upside potential. The hog market is weak due to high supply, and the egg market is pressured by high egg - laying hen inventory. The sugar market is weak due to high supply, and the cotton market is supported by high sales rates but with increasing inventory [1][2][7][8][11][12][15] Summary by Relevant Catalogs I. Agricultural Products Sector Overview - Palm oil is accelerating its decline due to the strongly bearish MPOB monthly supply - demand report. Domestic soybeans (Dou Er) are rising strongly due to unconfirmed news of import soybean clearance, but the upside may be limited. Hog price rebounds are blocked by increased supply, and the market may enter a low - level operation again [1] II. Variety Strategy Tracking (1) Palm Oil: Continuous Decline - The palm oil 2605 contract is continuously falling, pressured by the bearish MPOB supply - demand monthly report. In November, Malaysian palm oil inventory increased by 13.04% to 284 tons, much higher than expected; production decreased by 5.3% to 194 tons, lower than expected; exports decreased by 28.13% to 121 tons, lower than expected. The technical indicators are weak, and the strategy is to go short with a light position on rallies [2][5] (2) Dou Er and Soybean Meal: Sharp Rise - The Dou Er 2601 contract is rising sharply, and the soybean meal January contract is also rising. The unconfirmed news of extended import soybean clearance has boosted the market sentiment. The USDA's December soybean supply - demand report has little impact on the soybean market. The strategy for Dou Er is to go long short - term with a stop - loss, and for soybean meal 2605, hold short positions [7] (3) Hogs: Rebound Blocked, Weak and Volatile - The hog 2603 contract's rebound is blocked, and it turns weak again. Although terminal consumption has increased, high pig inventory, high planned slaughter volume of large pig farms, and pig diseases have increased supply and suppressed pig prices. The strategy is to close long positions and trade short - term [8] (4) Eggs: Forward Contracts are Weak - The egg 2603 contract is weakly declining, pressured by high egg - laying hen inventory. Although market demand has increased at the end of the year, the latest data shows a decline in old hen slaughter, and the reduction of production capacity is still uncertain. The strategy is to go short with a light position [11] (5) Sugar: Declining in Volatility - The Zhengzhou sugar 2605 contract is declining in a weak operation, affected by the supply pressure of new sugar listing. The seasonal supply pressure of sugar is still large, and downstream demand is average. The strategy is to go short with a light position, with a resistance at 5242 [12][14] (6) Cotton: Closing Up in Volatility - The cotton 2605 contract is rising in volatility and running at a high level. The high sales rate of cotton in Xinjiang supports the price, but commercial inventory is increasing. The strategy is to go long with a light position, with a stop - loss reference to the 10 - day moving average [15]

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Ratings No investment ratings for the industry are provided in the report [1][4][11] 2. Core Views - **Carbonate Lithium**: The carbonate lithium futures market is expected to be strong in the short - term. With a large - scale battery purchase agreement in the North American market, there is a strong demand expectation. If inventory continues to decline, the futures price may rise further. It's recommended to buy on dips [1] - **Polysilicon**: The polysilicon futures may fluctuate with a slight upward trend. The establishment of a storage platform indicates future production cuts, but the downstream demand is weak, and attention should be paid to the change of warehouse receipts [4][7] - **Industrial Silicon**: The industrial silicon futures market is expected to remain weak. The supply - demand pattern of the industry is weak, with high inventory and limited restocking due to downstream production cut expectations [11] 3. Summary by Commodity Carbonate Lithium - **Market Trend**: The main 2605 contract of carbonate lithium futures rose 3.43% to 95,980 yuan/ton compared with the previous trading day's closing price [1] - **Core Logic**: Influenced by a large - scale battery purchase agreement in the North American market, there is a strong demand expectation. The inventory data to be released tomorrow afternoon may affect the price [1] - **Technical Analysis**: The overall position increased significantly, and it is still controlled by bulls. The 5 - minute cycle of the 2605 contract shows a green line, red band, and red ladder. The overnight 2 - hour cycle shows a strong red ladder, with a long - short dividing line at 92,160 yuan/ton [1] - **Strategy Suggestion**: Buy on dips, and refer to the Band Winner indicator during intraday trading with the help of the 8:30 am live broadcast [1] Polysilicon - **Market Trend**: The main 2605 contract of polysilicon futures fell 0.03% to 54,600 yuan/ton compared with the previous trading day's closing price [4] - **Core Logic**: Affected by the establishment of a joint platform, the price opened higher. The establishment of the storage platform means future production cuts, but the downstream demand is weak, and the inventory is still accumulating [4] - **Technical Analysis**: The overall position decreased slightly, and it is still controlled by bulls. The 5 - minute cycle of the 2605 contract shows a green line, red band, and green ladder. The overnight 2 - hour cycle shows a weak green ladder, with a long - short dividing line at 54,835 yuan/ton [7] - **Strategy Suggestion**: It may fluctuate with a slight upward trend. Refer to the Band Winner indicator during intraday trading with the help of the 8:30 am live broadcast [7] Industrial Silicon - **Market Trend**: The 2605 contract of industrial silicon futures fell 1.43% to 8,255 yuan/ton compared with the previous trading day's closing price [11] - **Core Logic**: Affected by the production cut expectations of polysilicon and organic silicon, the supply - demand pattern is weak, and the inventory is at a three - year high with continuous accumulation for three weeks [11] - **Technical Analysis**: The overall position increased slightly, and it is controlled by bears. The 5 - minute cycle of the 2605 contract shows a green line, blue band, and green ladder. The overnight 2 - hour cycle shows a weak green ladder, with a long - short dividing line at 8,950 yuan/ton [11] - **Strategy Suggestion**: It is expected to remain weak. Pay attention to the influence of downstream polysilicon policies and short - term emotional fluctuations. Refer to the Band Winner indicator during intraday trading with the help of the 8:30 am live broadcast [11]

Report Summary 1. Investment Rating The report does not provide an overall industry investment rating. 2. Core View The report analyzes the market conditions of various chemical products, including crude oil, styrene, rubber, and others. It suggests that geopolitical factors are likely to be the main drivers of the market in December. While some products show short - term positive trends, others face supply - demand imbalances and potential risks. Overall, it advises different trading strategies for each product based on their fundamentals and technical analysis [3][5]. 3. Summary by Product Crude Oil - **Logic**: Supply - demand and macro drivers have a weak impact on the market. The mid - term supply surplus is the main trend, but the market still trades based on supply - demand changes. Macro factors are short - term positive, and geopolitical factors are likely to be the main drivers in December. Short - term bullish but difficult to trade due to geopolitical risks; mid - term, look for shorting opportunities after a pulse - type upward movement [4][5]. - **Technical Analysis**: The daily - level shows a mid - term downward structure, and the hourly - level is in a short - term oscillation. Today, it decreased slightly with reduced positions, and the short - term structure remains unchanged. The strategy is to wait and see in the hourly cycle [5]. Styrene - **Logic**: Short - term supply decreased due to increased maintenance after a significant profit decline, and inventory reduction supported the rebound. However, further upward movement requires support from the cost side (crude oil). Mid - term, the port inventory is at a five - year high, and there is a high probability of inventory reaching a new high in February if the demand remains weak after the New Year [8]. - **Technical Analysis**: The hourly - level shows a short - term oscillation structure. Today, it corrected with increased positions, and the structure became unclear. The strategy is to wait and see in the hourly cycle [9]. Rubber - **Logic**: There is no major contradiction in the short - term. Tire demand is unlikely to increase significantly, and the supply side is in the peak tapping season in Southeast Asia. The inventory in Qingdao is seasonally increasing, and there is no obvious upward or downward driver. Consider it as an oscillating market [10]. - **Technical Analysis**: The daily - level shows a mid - term downward structure, and the hourly - level is in a short - term oscillation. Today, it increased with reduced positions, and the hourly - level structure is unclear. The strategy is to wait and see in the hourly cycle [10]. Synthetic Rubber - **Logic**: The core factor is the raw material butadiene. The price of butadiene is low recently, leading to short - term improvement in supply - demand and reduced pressure. However, there is still a risk of liquid chemical inventory over - filling in the mid - term due to high supply and inventory [12]. - **Technical Analysis**: The daily - level shows a mid - term downward structure, and the hourly - level is in a short - term oscillation. Today, it increased with increased positions, and the hourly - level remains in an oscillating state. The strategy is to wait and see in the hourly cycle [12]. PX - **Logic**: The overseas spread has weakened significantly, and the anti - seasonal US aromatics blending oil logic has ended, reducing the upward driving force. However, the supply - demand of PX is still relatively strong among energy - chemical products. Pay attention to the impact of the cost side (crude oil) [17]. - **Technical Analysis**: The hourly - level shows a short - term upward structure. Today, it continued to correct with reduced positions, but the short - term upward structure remains unchanged. The hourly - level support is at 6700. The strategy is to hold long positions in the hourly cycle, with a stop - loss at 6700, and look for secondary entry opportunities for non - entered long positions after the correction ends [17][18]. PTA - **Logic**: The overseas spread has weakened significantly, and the anti - seasonal US aromatics blending oil logic has ended, reducing the upward driving force. PTA continues to reduce inventory, and the short - term supply - demand pressure is not large. Pay attention to the cost side [18]. - **Technical Analysis**: The hourly - level shows a short - term upward structure. Today, it tested the short - term support with reduced positions, and the short - term upward structure remains unchanged. The hourly - level support for the 01 contract is at 4620. The strategy is to hold long positions in the hourly cycle, with a stop - loss at 4620 (01 contract), and look for secondary entry opportunities for non - entered long positions after the correction ends [18]. PP - **Logic**: Supply is at a high level, and demand is weak. The supply - demand is still weak without a reversal driver. Be vigilant about short - term geopolitical risks in crude oil [21]. - **Technical Analysis**: The hourly - level shows a short - term downward structure. Today, it decreased with reduced positions. The short - term downward structure remains, and the short - term pressure above is at 6220. The strategy is to wait and see in the hourly cycle [21]. Methanol - **Logic**: Domestic methanol production is at a high level, and downstream demand is stable but weak. The port inventory has been decreasing, but the rate of decrease slowed down last week, and the inventory is still at a high level. The upward space is limited, and the previous upward driving force has ended. No longer consider short - term long positions [23][25]. - **Technical Analysis**: The daily - level shows a mid - term downward structure, and the short - term is in an oscillation. Today, it oscillated within the day, and the short - term structure is unclear. The 05 contract is weaker than the 01 contract, indicating high inventory pressure. The strategy is to wait and see in the hourly cycle [25]. PVC - **Logic**: There are few future maintenance plans, and high production is maintained. However, the profit has declined, and there are more expectations of production cuts. The demand side (downstream real estate) is not optimistic, and the social inventory is at a high level. The supply - demand has no upward reversal driver, but the valuation is low, so there is no value in chasing short positions [28]. - **Technical Analysis**: The daily - level shows a mid - term downward structure, and the hourly - level shows a short - term downward structure. Today, it decreased with reduced positions. Pay attention to the short - term pressure above at 4445. The strategy is to wait and see in the hourly cycle [28]. Ethylene Glycol - **Logic**: The previous domestic maintenance devices have resumed production, and new production capacity has been put into operation, increasing the supply pressure. Downstream polyester demand is stable, and the inventory accumulation pattern continues. The supply - demand driving force is downward. Be vigilant about short - term geopolitical risks in crude oil [30]. - **Technical Analysis**: The daily - level shows a mid - term downward structure, and the hourly - level shows a downward structure. Today, it oscillated within the day. Pay attention to the short - term pressure above at 3720. The strategy is to wait and see in the hourly cycle [30]. Plastic - **Logic**: Supply is at a high level, and demand is weak. The supply - demand is still weak without a reversal driver. Be vigilant about short - term geopolitical risks in crude oil [32]. - **Technical Analysis**: The daily - level shows a mid - term downward structure, and the hourly - level shows a downward structure. Today, it oscillated within the day. The short - term pressure above is at 6670. The strategy is to wait and see in the hourly cycle [32]. Soda Ash - **Logic**: The high - supply and high - inventory pattern continues, and the downstream glass production lines have cut production, suppressing the demand for soda ash. Although the fundamental downward driving force remains, the cost - performance of holding short positions is reduced [35]. - **Technical Analysis**: The hourly - level shows a downward structure. Today, it decreased with reduced positions, and the downward structure remains unchanged. The short - term pressure above has moved down to 1120. The strategy is to hold the remaining short positions in the hourly cycle cautiously with a stop - profit at 1120 [35]. Caustic Soda - **Logic**: Supply production is at a high level, and the weekly production has increased year - on - year, reaching a new high. It is the off - season for traditional downstream demand, and the demand from alumina has weakened due to reduced production. The inventory has increased for three consecutive weeks, reaching a new historical high year - on - year. The supply - demand driving force is downward without a reversal, but there is no space to chase short - positions before an obvious rebound [37]. - **Technical Analysis**: The hourly - level shows a downward structure. Today, it rebounded with reduced positions, and the downward structure remains unchanged. The short - term pressure above is at 2135. The strategy is to wait and see in the hourly cycle [37].

Report Summary 1. Industry Investment Rating - The report does not provide an overall investment rating for the industry. 2. Core View - The agricultural product sector shows mixed trends. Soybean meal and oils are on a downward trend, while live pigs are rebounding. Eggs are falling, sugar is rebounding from a low level, and cotton is fluctuating narrowly [1]. 3. Summary by Variety Soybean Meal - The soybean meal main contract 2605 continues to decline due to the weak performance of US soybeans and high domestic inventories. From January to November 2025, China's soybean imports reached 1.0379 billion tons, a year - on - year increase of 6.9%, and the inventory has rebounded to around 1.2 million tons. The technical chart shows a downward trend, and the strategy is to lightly short at resistance levels [1][2]. Oils - The three major oil main contracts 2605 are all falling. The market expects the end - of - November palm oil inventory in Malaysia to surge 7.78% month - on - month to a 6.5 - year high, and crude oil has tumbled. Domestically, the supply of soybean oil and rapeseed oil is sufficient. The palm oil main contract 2605 has entered a downward trend technically, and short - term operations are recommended before the release of the MPOB report [1][3]. Live Pigs - The live pig main contract 2603 continues to rebound. A new cold wave is expected to increase transportation costs and boost consumption such as southern curing and northern sausage - making. The technical chart shows an upward trend, and the strategy is to hold a light long position with a support level of 11335 [1][5]. Eggs - The egg main contracts 2601 and 2602 are both falling, with the 2602 contract having a larger decline. The high egg - laying hen inventory and the uncertain de - capacity are pressuring the prices. The technical chart shows a downward trend, and the strategy is to lightly short, with the resistance level of the 2601 contract at 3134 [7]. Sugar - The Zhengzhou sugar main contract 2601 rebounds from a low level. Although the year - end consumption demand may improve, the seasonal supply pressure is still large. The cost of production provides some support, and the strategy is to hold short positions [9]. Cotton - The cotton main contract 2601 fluctuates narrowly. The high sales rate in Xinjiang supports the price, but the commercial inventory is increasing. As of December 5, the cotton commercial total inventory was 4.465 million tons, a month - on - month increase of 6.83%. The strategy is to close long positions and conduct short - term trading [11].

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. Core Viewpoints - Crude oil overnight retraced its previous gains without any news, remaining in a sideways pattern awaiting geopolitical drivers. The geopolitical situation suggests a pessimistic outlook for a cease - fire in the Russia - Ukraine conflict, and there is an upward revision risk if the negotiation fails again. There is also an expectation of an escalation of risks in the Caribbean region, which could lead to a pulse - like upward movement [1][3]. - For the chemical sector, the aromatics (PX, PTA, EB) that were previously bullish have seen a weakening of the upward drive as overseas crack spreads have declined significantly. However, PX still has a relatively healthy fundamental situation, and styrene has seen short - term supply - demand improvement due to inventory reduction [1]. Summary by Directory Crude Oil - **Logic**: The impact of supply - demand and macro - drivers on the crude oil market is still weak, with a mid - term oversupply expectation. However, there was trading based on supply - demand changes after last week's unexpected inventory build in EIA data. Macro factors are currently bullish, and geopolitical factors may be the main driver in December. Short - term outlook is bullish but difficult to trade, and there will be mid - term short - selling opportunities after a pulse - like upward movement [2][3]. - **Technical Analysis**: The daily chart shows a mid - term downward structure, and the hourly chart shows a short - term sideways pattern. The strategy is to wait and observe on the hourly cycle [3]. Styrene - **Logic**: Short - term supply has decreased due to more maintenance after a significant profit decline, leading to inventory reduction and supply - demand improvement. However, further upward movement requires support from crude oil prices. Mid - term inventory is at a five - year high, and there is a high risk of inventory over - build if demand remains weak after the New Year [6]. - **Technical Analysis**: The hourly chart shows a short - term upward structure. The strategy is to wait for a pull - back without breaking the support at 6520 and then look for a long - entry opportunity [6]. Rubber - **Logic**: There is no major contradiction in the short term. Tire demand has limited growth potential, and the supply side is in the peak tapping season in Southeast Asia, with normal inventory build - up in Qingdao. The market should be viewed with a sideways outlook [9]. - **Technical Analysis**: The daily chart shows a mid - term downward structure, and the hourly chart shows a short - term sideways pattern. The strategy is to wait and observe on the hourly cycle [9]. Synthetic Rubber - **Logic**: The core factor is the price of raw material butadiene. Short - term supply - demand has improved as downstream replenished inventory due to low butadiene prices, but there is still mid - term inventory pressure [11]. - **Technical Analysis**: The daily chart shows a mid - term downward structure, and the hourly chart shows a short - term sideways pattern. The strategy is to wait and observe on the hourly cycle [11]. PX - **Logic**: The upward drive has weakened as the off - season US aromatics blending oil logic has ended. However, PX supply - demand remains strong, with high operating rates, no new plant commissioning in the short term, and rising downstream PTA operating rates. Attention should be paid to the impact of crude oil prices [14]. - **Technical Analysis**: The hourly chart shows a short - term upward structure. The strategy is to hold long positions with a stop - loss at 6700 and look for opportunities to add positions after the pull - back ends [14]. PTA - **Logic**: The upward drive has weakened as the off - season US aromatics blending oil logic has ended. PTA is still reducing inventory, and short - term supply - demand pressure is low. Attention should be paid to the impact of crude oil prices [18]. - **Technical Analysis**: The hourly chart shows a short - term upward structure. The strategy is to hold long positions with a stop - loss at 4620 (01 contract) and look for a second long - entry opportunity after the pull - back ends [18]. PP - **Logic**: Supply is high and demand is weak, with no sign of a reversal. However, short - term geopolitical risks in crude oil need to be watched [20]. - **Technical Analysis**: The hourly chart shows a short - term downward structure. The strategy is to wait and observe on the hourly cycle [20]. Methanol - **Logic**: Domestic methanol operating rates remain high, and downstream demand is weak. Although port inventory has decreased, the rate of decrease has slowed, and inventory is still at a high level. The previous upward drive has ended, and the supply - demand logic is still weak [22][24]. - **Technical Analysis**: The daily chart shows a mid - term downward structure and a short - term sideways pattern. The strategy is to wait and observe on the hourly cycle [24]. PVC - **Logic**: There are few future maintenance plans, and high operating rates are maintained. However, there is an increasing expectation of production cuts due to falling profits. Demand from the downstream real estate sector is weak, and social and factory inventories are high. The valuation is low, and there is no value in short - selling [27]. - **Technical Analysis**: The daily chart shows a mid - term downward structure, and the hourly chart shows a short - term downward structure. The strategy is to wait and observe on the hourly cycle [27]. Ethylene Glycol - **Logic**: Domestic operating rates are high due to the resumption of previously shut - down plants and new capacity additions. Downstream polyester demand is stable, and the inventory build - up pattern continues. However, short - term geopolitical risks in crude oil need to be watched [29]. - **Technical Analysis**: The daily chart shows a mid - term downward structure, and the hourly chart shows a short - term downward structure. The strategy is to wait and observe on the hourly cycle, paying attention to the short - term resistance at 3720 [29]. Plastic - **Logic**: Supply is high and demand is weak, with no sign of a reversal. However, short - term geopolitical risks in crude oil need to be watched [32]. - **Technical Analysis**: The daily chart shows a mid - term downward structure, and the hourly chart shows a short - term downward structure. The strategy is to wait and observe on the hourly cycle, paying attention to the short - term resistance at 6670 [32]. Soda Ash - **Logic**: The high - supply and high - inventory situation continues, and downstream glass production lines have cut production, suppressing demand. Although the downward fundamental drive remains, the cost - effectiveness of holding short positions is decreasing [35]. - **Technical Analysis**: The hourly chart shows a downward structure. The strategy is to hold the remaining short positions cautiously, with a stop - profit at 1155 [35]. Caustic Soda - **Logic**: Supply operating rates remain high, and traditional downstream demand is in the off - season. Alumina demand has weakened due to reduced production, and inventory has reached a new high. The supply - demand drive is downward, but there is no space for short - selling before a significant rebound [37]. - **Technical Analysis**: The hourly chart shows a downward structure. The strategy is to wait and observe on the hourly cycle, paying attention to the short - term resistance at 2135 [37].

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating There is no information about the industry investment rating in the report. 2. Report Core View The report analyzes the market trends, core logics, technical aspects, and provides strategy suggestions for three commodities: lithium carbonate, polysilicon, and industrial silicon futures. It also points out the influencing factors and potential driving forces for each commodity [1][3][9]. 3. Key Points by Commodity Lithium Carbonate - **Market Trend**: The lithium carbonate futures showed a strong performance today. The main 2605 contract rose 2.91% from the previous trading day's closing price, reaching 94,840 yuan/ton [1]. - **Core Logic**: Affected by news, the price increased significantly. Nigeria's 19 northern states plan to suspend mining activities for six months. China imported about 400,000 tons of lithium ore from Nigeria in the first half of this year, corresponding to about 50,000 tons of equity lithium carbonate. Fundamentally, lithium carbonate continued the de - stocking pattern, and the apparent demand increased slightly month - on - month [1]. - **Technical Analysis**: The overall open interest of lithium carbonate futures increased slightly today, still controlled by bulls, with a certain reduction of positions at the end of the session. There was an entry opportunity at 10:05 with the "Three - line Resonance Method" and increased trading volume, offering a 1:2 profit - loss ratio. The 5 - minute cycle of the main 2605 contract is a green - line, red - band, green - ladder pattern, and the overnight 2 - hour cycle is still a weak green ladder line, with the long - short dividing water level at 96,940 yuan/ton [1]. - **Strategy Suggestion**: In the context of "strong reality, strong expectation", the operation should be mainly to go long on dips. Intraday operations can refer to the 8:30 morning live broadcast and the Band Winner indicator [1]. Polysilicon - **Market Trend**: The polysilicon futures showed a weak performance today. The 2605 contract fell 0.16% from the previous trading day's closing price, reaching 53,065 yuan/ton [3]. - **Core Logic**: On December 5, the Guangzhou Futures Exchange announced an adjustment to polysilicon futures registered brands, adding "Jingnuo" and "Orient Hope" as registered brands. However, today's polysilicon market decline was less than expected, and it showed a relatively strong trend after a gap - down opening. Fundamentally, there is some seasonal production reduction on the supply side, but the inventory accumulation pattern continues. The downstream industry chain demand is weak, production schedules have declined, and the prices of downstream silicon wafers and battery cells have also decreased to some extent [3][6]. - **Technical Analysis**: The overall open interest of polysilicon futures decreased slightly today, with a gradual shift of positions. The 05 contract is still controlled by bulls. The 5 - minute cycle of the polysilicon 2605 contract is a red - line, red - band, red - ladder pattern, and the overnight 2 - hour cycle is still a weak green ladder line, with the long - short dividing water level at 55,045 yuan/ton [6]. - **Strategy Suggestion**: The contradiction between the strong futures market with low warehouse receipts and the weak spot market with oversupply remains unchanged. Polysilicon may maintain a high - level oscillation in the short term. Intraday operations can refer to the 8:30 morning live broadcast and the Band Winner indicator [6]. Industrial Silicon - **Market Trend**: The industrial silicon futures showed a weak performance today, following the polysilicon trend. The main 2601 contract fell 1.48% from the previous trading day's closing price, reaching 8,675 yuan/ton [9]. - **Core Logic**: It opened with a gap down following the polysilicon trend, mainly affected by market sentiment. The supply - demand weakness pattern of industrial silicon continues, and the industry inventory is at a three - year high, with three consecutive weeks of inventory accumulation. Specifically, the production in the southwest region during the dry season has continuously decreased to the lowest level this year, while the northern large - scale manufacturers in the eastern region have sporadically increased production and plan to gradually increase to full - load operation. The downstream weakness has not changed significantly, with all facing production reduction expectations and limited restocking [9]. - **Technical Analysis**: The overall open interest of industrial silicon futures increased significantly today, still controlled by bears. The 5 - minute cycle of the main 2601 contract has changed to a red - line, red - band, red - ladder pattern, and the overnight 2 - hour cycle is still a weak green ladder line, with the long - short dividing water level at 9,145 yuan/ton [9]. - **Strategy Suggestion**: It is still regarded as weak, mainly affected by policies and news. Pay attention to short - term emotional fluctuations. Intraday operations can refer to the 8:30 morning live broadcast and the Band Winner indicator [9].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. 2. Core Viewpoints - The agricultural product sector shows a mixed trend, with hog prices rising sharply and soybean meal prices falling significantly. The hog market is in a situation of strong supply and demand, and the soybean meal market is under pressure from abundant imports and high inventory [1]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs 3.1. Agricultural Product Sector Overview - Hog prices have risen sharply as the year - end approaches, with the hog market entering a period of strong supply and demand. The demand for sausage - making in the north and bacon - curing in the south is increasing, and hog futures prices have rebounded strongly from low levels and may continue to strengthen. Soybean meal prices have fallen significantly due to abundant imported soybeans, high crushing volumes, and a rebound in soybean meal inventory to over one million tons, and its futures prices have entered a downward trend [1]. 3.2. Variety Strategy Tracking 3.2.1. Hogs - Focus: The main contract 2603 of hogs has risen sharply, boosted by improved demand. Supply is abundant in December as large - scale pig enterprises increase their出栏. Demand has increased with the arrival of winter, and the开工 rate of slaughtering enterprises has rebounded. The futures price has broken through the 20 - day moving average and entered an upward trend. The strategy is to close short positions and hold light long positions [2]. 3.2.2. Soybean Meal - Focus: The main contract 2605 of soybean meal has fallen significantly due to abundant imported soybeans and high inventory pressure. In November, China imported 8.107 million tons of soybeans, a 13.4% year - on - year increase. The total soybean imports in the first 11 months reached 103.79 million tons, a 6.9% year - on - year increase. The inventory has rebounded to about 1.2 million tons. The futures price has broken through the moving average system and entered a downward trend. The strategy is to continue to look for resistance levels to short lightly [3]. 3.2.3. Palm Oil - Focus: The main contract 2605 of Dalian palm oil has oscillated and declined. The market is cautious before the release of the MPOB report, and some long positions have been liquidated. The futures price has fallen below the 20 - day moving average. The strategy is to close long positions, conduct short - term trading, and wait for important data to enter trend positions [5]. 3.2.4. Red Dates - Focus: The main contract 2605 of red dates has first risen and then declined, with limited rebound. The peak consumption season is in conflict with high supply and inventory, leading to large price fluctuations. The acquisition progress in the main production areas of Xinjiang is about 90%, and the price of new dates has stabilized. However, the concentrated listing of new dates and high inventory of old dates limit the rebound space. The strategy is short - term trading [8]. 3.2.5. Apples - Focus: The main contract 2605 of apples has oscillated and declined from a high position. The inventory in production areas is relatively low, but the market trading speed is slow, and the sales volume is average. Citrus competing fruits also impact apple consumption. The futures price has fallen below the 10 - day moving average. The strategy is to close long positions and pay attention to the support of the 20 - day moving average [9][11]. 3.2.6. Eggs - Focus: The main contract 2601 of eggs has rebounded from a low position as the market anticipates improved demand at the end of the year. The egg - laying hen inventory is still high, but the market expects better demand. The latest data shows a decline in the number of old hens sold. The futures price has rebounded and oscillated, standing above the 5 - day moving average. The strategy is to close short positions and conduct short - term trading [12]. 3.2.7. Sugar - Focus: The main contract 2601 of Zhengzhou sugar has rebounded from a low position due to technical correction and short - covering. However, the supply pressure of new sugar is still large as the sugar - cane crushing progress in Guangxi and Yunnan continues, with 50 sugar mills in operation. The futures price is still below the moving averages, and the downward trend has not been reversed. The strategy is to hold short positions [14]. 3.2.8. Cotton - Focus: The main contract 2601 of cotton has oscillated and closed up, with high - level operation. The sales rate of Xinjiang cotton is high, and the demand has significantly increased. The textile enterprises in Xinjiang have a high operating rate, and the orders are sufficient. The transportation cost of cotton has increased. The market confidence of the textile industry has been boosted. The futures price has recovered the 10 - day moving average, and the strategy is to hold long positions [17]. 3.2.9. Peanuts - Focus: The main contract 2603 of peanuts has fallen significantly, with a weakening trend. The supply in various production areas is limited, and the demand is also weak. Food factories have only rigid demand, and the trading activity in the domestic market is low. Oil mills have a low operating rate, strictly control quality, and continue to lower purchase prices. The futures price has fallen below the 10 - day moving average, and the strategy is to short lightly [18][20].

Report Summary 1. Industry Investment Rating No specific investment rating for the industry is provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints - Crude oil is expected to remain volatile in the short term, with geopolitical factors being the main driver in December. There is a short - term bullish outlook, but trading is difficult due to geopolitical uncertainties. A mid - term shorting opportunity is expected after a pulse - like upward movement [2][3]. - Among chemical products, PX and PTA can maintain a bullish view for now, while the bullish view on methanol is removed. Other products such as styrene, rubber, synthetic rubber, etc., each have their own supply - demand and technical characteristics, with corresponding trading suggestions [1][6][9]. 3. Summary by Commodity Crude Oil - **Logic**: Supply - demand and macro - factors have a weak impact on the market. The mid - term expectation of supply surplus remains, but there is short - term trading of supply - demand changes. Geopolitical factors are increasing, and there is a pessimistic view on the cease - fire in the Russia - Ukraine conflict. There may be a pulse - like upward movement due to the risk escalation in the Caribbean [2][3]. - **Technical Analysis**: A mid - term downward structure on the daily chart and a short - term volatile structure on the hourly chart. The strategy is to wait and see on the hourly cycle [3]. Styrene - **Logic**: Short - term supply has decreased due to increased maintenance, and two consecutive weeks of inventory reduction have improved short - term supply - demand. However, mid - term inventory pressure is high, and there may be a risk of inventory overstocking [6]. - **Technical Analysis**: A short - term upward structure on the hourly chart. The strategy is to wait for an opportunity to try long after a pull - back without breaking the support [6]. Rubber - **Logic**: There are no major short - term contradictions. Tire demand has limited growth, and the supply side is in the peak tapping season. There is no clear upward or downward driving force, so it is treated with a volatile view [9]. - **Technical Analysis**: A mid - term downward structure on the daily chart and a short - term volatile structure on the hourly chart. The strategy is to wait and see on the hourly cycle [9]. Synthetic Rubber - **Logic**: The core of synthetic rubber lies in the supply - demand of raw material butadiene. Short - term supply - demand has improved, but there is still mid - term inventory pressure [14]. - **Technical Analysis**: A mid - term downward structure on the daily chart and a short - term volatile structure on the hourly chart. The strategy is to wait and see on the hourly cycle [14]. PX - **Logic**: The upward driving force has weakened, but the supply - demand situation is still relatively strong in the chemical industry, and attention should be paid to the cost - end impact of crude oil [17]. - **Technical Analysis**: A short - term upward structure on the hourly chart. The strategy is to hold long positions on the hourly level, with a stop - loss reference of 6700 [17]. PTA - **Logic**: The upward driving force has weakened, but short - term supply - demand pressure is not significant. Attention should be paid to cost - end driving [20]. - **Technical Analysis**: A short - term upward structure on the hourly chart. The strategy is to hold long positions on the hourly level, with a stop - loss reference of 4620 (01 contract) [20]. PP - **Logic**: Supply is at a high level and demand is weak, and the supply - demand situation is still weak. Attention should be paid to short - term geopolitical risks in crude oil [22]. - **Technical Analysis**: A short - term volatile structure on the hourly chart. The strategy is to wait and see on the hourly cycle [22]. Methanol - **Logic**: Domestic methanol production is at a high level, and demand is weak. Although the port inventory has decreased, the rate of decrease has slowed down, and there is high - level inventory pressure. The previous upward driving force has ended, and the short - term bullish view is removed [23]. - **Technical Analysis**: A mid - term downward and short - term volatile structure. The strategy is to wait and see on the hourly cycle [23]. PVC - **Logic**: Future maintenance plans are limited, and production is at a high level. There are expectations of production reduction due to profit decline, but demand is weak, and inventory is high. There is no upward driving force, and short - selling has limited value [26]. - **Technical Analysis**: A mid - term downward structure on the daily chart and a short - term volatile structure on the hourly chart. The strategy is to wait and see on the hourly cycle [26]. Ethylene Glycol - **Logic**: Domestic production is at a high level, and new production capacity has increased supply pressure. Demand from downstream polyester is stable, and the inventory accumulation pattern continues. Attention should be paid to short - term geopolitical risks in crude oil [29]. - **Technical Analysis**: A mid - term and short - term downward structure on the hourly chart. The strategy is to wait and see on the hourly cycle [29]. Plastic - **Logic**: Supply is at a high level and demand is weak, and the supply - demand situation is still weak. Attention should be paid to short - term geopolitical risks in crude oil [30]. - **Technical Analysis**: A mid - term and short - term downward structure on the hourly chart. The strategy is to wait and see on the hourly cycle [30]. Soda Ash - **Logic**: High supply and high inventory continue, and the demand from downstream glass has decreased. Although the downward driving force remains, the cost - effectiveness of holding short positions has decreased [33]. - **Technical Analysis**: A downward structure on the hourly chart. The strategy is to hold the remaining short positions on the hourly cycle with a stop - profit reference of 1155 [33]. Caustic Soda - **Logic**: Supply is at a high level, and traditional downstream demand is in the off - season. Inventory has reached a new high, and the downward driving force remains, but there is limited space for short - selling [36]. - **Technical Analysis**: A downward structure on the hourly chart. The strategy is to wait and see on the hourly cycle [36].