Group 1: Report Industry Investment Ratings - No relevant content provided Group 2: Core Views of the Report - For styrene, the fundamental situation is characterized by high profits, high production, and high inventory. There will be pressure from the concentrated commissioning of new plants in September - October. The short - term is bullish with the market, and in the medium - term, look for short - selling opportunities after the sentiment fades [1]. - PTA's fundamentals have recently improved. Supply pressure has decreased and downstream demand has increased, resulting in a shift from inventory accumulation to inventory reduction. However, due to the medium - term oversupply expectation of crude oil and short - term sentiment disturbances, it is recommended to focus on short - term long - position band operations [2]. - Caustic soda has shown a strong performance. It is affected by anti - involution sentiment and potential production reduction due to the 9.3 military parade. Although its fundamentals have strengthened, the high supply still exerts pressure, and the upside space may be limited. It is not recommended to chase long positions, but rather consider short - term long opportunities based on 15 - minute fluctuations [4]. Group 3: Summary by Relevant Catalogs 1. Logical Analysis Styrene - After reaching a two - month low this week, styrene showed a slight volume - up move. The rebound occurred after the rumor of anti - involution in the chemical industry. The supply growth is faster than the demand growth, and the inventory remains at a historical high. The fundamental driving force is downward, but it is bullish in the short - term with the market [1]. PTA - PTA showed a strong performance this week. After a low - level shock, it had a volume - up move. Its fundamentals have improved, with supply pressure decreasing and downstream demand entering the peak season. However, due to the medium - term oversupply expectation of crude oil, short - term long - position band operations are recommended [2]. Caustic Soda - Caustic soda was strong this week, affected by anti - involution sentiment and potential production reduction due to the 9.3 military parade. Although its fundamentals have strengthened, the high supply still exerts pressure, and the upside space may be limited [4]. 2. Weekly Fundamentals Styrene - As of the week of August 22, the capacity utilization rate was 78.53%, with a week - on - week increase of 0.35% and a year - on - year increase of 9.77%. The weekly production was 37.08 tons, with a week - on - week increase of 0.4% and a year - on - year increase of 23.8%. The non - integrated device profit was - 238.13 yuan/ton, with a week - on - week increase of 91 yuan/ton. The integrated device profit was 564.48 yuan/ton, with a week - on - week decrease of 44 yuan/ton. The national inventory was 20.65 tons, with a week - on - week decrease of 1% and a year - on - year increase of 29% [5]. PTA - As of the week of August 22, the PTA operation rate was 72.9%, with a week - on - week decrease of 3.5%. The polymerization operation rate was 90%, with a week - on - week increase of 0.6%. As of August 15, the overall social inventory of PTA was 225 tons, with a week - on - week decrease of 2.3 tons. The weekly spot processing fee increased by 51 yuan to 249 yuan/ton [6][7]. Caustic Soda - As of the week of August 22, the factory inventory of fixed liquid caustic soda sample enterprises with a capacity of 200,000 tons and above was 39.64 tons (wet tons), with a week - on - week decrease of 9.46% and a year - on - year increase of 16.67%. The capacity utilization ratio of liquid caustic soda sample enterprises was 22.38%, with a week - on - week decrease of 2.58%. The chlor - alkali gross profit was 349 yuan/ton, with a week - on - week increase of 21% and a year - on - year increase of 164% [8]. 3. Technical Analysis - The hourly cycle of the styrene 2510 contract shows an upward structure, with a short - term support level at 7330 [9]. - The hourly cycle of the PTA2601 contract shows an upward structure, with a short - term support level at 4840 [9]. - The hourly cycle of the caustic soda 2601 contract shows an upward structure, with a short - term support level at 2670 [9]. 4. Strategies - For the styrene 2510 contract, look for short - selling opportunities after breaking the support level on the hourly level, and look for short - term long opportunities based on the previous low support on the 15 - minute cycle [15]. - For the PTA2601 contract, look for short - term long opportunities based on the previous low support on the 15 - minute cycle [16]. - For the caustic soda 2601 contract, look for short - term long opportunities based on the previous low support on the 15 - minute cycle [17].

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core View of the Report The market has been affected by short - term "small essay" disturbances, but most varieties in the energy and chemical sector are still viewed as weak. The short - term geopolitical disturbances in the crude oil market have weakened, and it has returned to the fundamental logic. Other varieties are also facing different supply - demand pressures and inventory situations, which affect their price trends [1][2]. Summary by Related Catalogs 1. Crude Oil - **Logic**: After the Trump - Russia Alaska meeting, the short - term geopolitical disturbances in the Russia - Ukraine situation have weakened. The crude oil market has returned to the fundamental logic. With the approaching seasonal demand inflection point and the accelerating production increase of OPEC+, the pressure of crude oil surplus will gradually materialize [2]. - **Technical Analysis**: The daily - level of crude oil shows a medium - term downward structure, and the hourly - level shows a short - term downward structure. The intraday trend is oscillating, and the center of gravity is slowly moving down. The short - term pressure above the hourly - level is around 490. The strategy is to hold short positions in the hourly cycle [2]. 2. Benzene Ethylene (EB) - **Logic**: The supply side has a high operating rate of 78.18% this week, and the planned production facilities in August have been put into operation. Attention should be paid to the new production capacity in September. Although the downstream demand has increased recently, the high port inventory and the pressure of new production capacity still lead to a large pressure of inventory accumulation. It is still regarded as bearish [5]. - **Technical Analysis**: The hourly - level of benzene ethylene shows a short - term downward structure. After hitting a new low today, the market rebounded in the afternoon due to "small essay" disturbances, but it is not considered a trend reversal. The short - term pressure above is in the range of 7265 - 7290 after contract switching. The strategy is to hold short positions in the hourly cycle [5]. 3. Rubber - **Logic**: During the rainy season in Southeast Asia, the raw material prices in Thailand are stable. The short - term improvement in the downstream tire operating rate provides support, and the inventory in Qingdao has decreased recently. However, the high tire inventory still suppresses the expected increase in demand, and the medium - term fundamental driving force of rubber is still downward [9]. - **Technical Analysis**: The daily - level of rubber shows a medium - term downward structure, and the hourly - level shows a short - term downward structure. After rising and then falling today, it tested the short - term pressure at 15950 but failed. The pressure level is still valid. The strategy is to hold short positions in the hourly cycle, with a stop - loss reference at 15950 [9]. 4. Synthetic Rubber (BR) - **Logic**: The high production and weak demand expectations of synthetic rubber in the medium - term have not changed. The high production of butadiene rubber and the large inventory of downstream tires, especially semi - steel tires, are difficult to solve. The supply pressure of butadiene has increased after the new device was put into operation in the third quarter. Recently, the arrival volume of butadiene has increased, and the short - term bullish factor of tight port inventory has disappeared. Coupled with the decline in the price of crude oil, the synthetic rubber is still considered bearish [14]. - **Technical Analysis**: The daily - level of synthetic rubber shows a medium - term oscillating/downward structure, and the hourly - level shows a short - term downward structure. After rising and then falling today, it tested the short - term pressure at 11950 but failed. The pressure level is still valid. The strategy is to hold short positions in the hourly cycle [14]. 5. PX - **Logic**: The supply of PX has increased slightly, the operation of PTA is stable, and the fundamentals of PX have weakened, and the inventory reduction has slowed down. However, the polyester load is expected to increase from August to September, and the fundamental contradiction is not significant. Attention should be paid to the movement of the cost - end crude oil [17]. - **Technical Analysis**: The hourly - level of PX shows a short - term upward structure. After being affected by "small essay" disturbances in the afternoon today, the trading volume increased. The hourly - level structure is bullish, and the short - term support is around 6730. The strategy is to wait and see in the hourly cycle [17]. 6. PTA - **Logic**: There is no significant change in the supply - side operation rate, but the downstream demand is expected to improve in the peak season from August to September. Coupled with the continuous low processing fee of PTA itself, the supply - demand expectation is strong, but attention should be paid to the change of the cost - end crude oil [20]. - **Technical Analysis**: The hourly - level of PTA shows a short - term downward structure. After being affected by "small essay" disturbances in the afternoon today, the trading volume increased, but the structure is weaker than that of PX and has not turned bullish. The short - term pressure above after contract switching is in the range of 4760 - 4780. The strategy is to hold short positions cautiously in the hourly cycle [20]. 7. PP - **Logic**: The supply pressure has increased due to the new production capacity put into operation in August. Although the downstream operation rate has improved, the inventory at all links in the industrial chain has continued to accumulate, and the fundamentals are weak. Attention should be paid to the movement of crude oil [21]. - **Technical Analysis**: The hourly - level of PP shows a short - term downward structure. After hitting a new low today, it rebounded in the afternoon due to "small essay" disturbances, but the downward structure has not changed. The short - term pressure above is temporarily around 7050. The strategy is to hold short positions in the hourly cycle [21]. 8. Methanol - **Logic**: After the Iranian devices resumed operation, a large number of shipments have arrived at ports recently. The port inventory has increased significantly both year - on - year and month - on - month, and the short - term inventory accumulation speed is fast, which brings pressure. At the same time, the domestic production remains at a high level, and the traditional downstream is in the off - season, with high raw material inventory. The overall fundamentals are still bearish [24]. - **Technical Analysis**: The daily - level of methanol shows a medium - term downward/oscillating structure, and the short - term shows a downward structure. Today, there was a positive line with a decrease in positions and an increase in trading volume, which is regarded as a rebound repair after five consecutive negative lines. The short - term pressure above is around 245 (01 contract). The strategy is to continue to hold the remaining short positions after partial profit - taking yesterday in the hourly cycle [24]. 9. PVC - **Logic**: The supply - side operation rate has continued to rise to a year - on - year high of 78.8%. The demand is difficult to improve due to the downward trend in the real estate market and the off - season. The pressure of continuous inventory accumulation is obvious, and the fundamental driving force is bearish [28]. - **Technical Analysis**: The daily - level of PVC shows a medium - term upward structure, and the hourly - level shows a short - term downward structure. The intraday trend was oscillating. After hitting a new low, it rebounded with the energy and chemical sector in the afternoon, but the trend has not reversed. The short - term pressure above is around 5060. The strategy is to hold short positions in the hourly cycle [28]. 10. Ethylene Glycol (EG) - **Logic**: The relatively low port inventory makes the short - term fundamentals of ethylene glycol better than other energy and chemical varieties, but the expectation of inventory accumulation also limits the upward space. Attention should be paid to the start time of inventory accumulation [30]. - **Technical Analysis**: The daily - level of ethylene glycol shows a medium - term oscillating/downward structure, and the hourly - level short - term downward structure is being tested. After being affected by "small essay" disturbances in the afternoon today, it rose sharply with increased trading volume and stood above the short - term pressure at 4385. The short - term downward structure at the hourly - level is being tested. The strategy is to take profit and leave the short positions in the hourly cycle [30]. 11. Plastic - **Logic**: The increase in operation rate and the new production capacity have brought large supply pressure. The downstream operation rate remains at a year - on - year low, and the pressure of continuous inventory accumulation in ports and social inventories is obvious. The supply - demand driving force is bearish [32]. - **Technical Analysis**: The daily - level of plastic shows a medium - term oscillating/downward structure, and the hourly - level shows a downward structure. After hitting a new low today, it rebounded in the afternoon due to "small essay" disturbances, but the downward structure has not changed. The short - term pressure above is around 7345. The strategy is to hold short positions in the hourly cycle [32]. 12. Soda Ash - **Logic**: The supply side continues to increase production. On the demand side, in addition to the rigid demand for glass, the speculative demand has weakened. The inventory pressure of soda ash plants has increased again, and the heavy soda inventory has reached a new historical high. The supply - demand pressure of soda ash is still large, and the anti - involution has not had a substantial impact on the supply of soda ash [37]. - **Technical Analysis**: The hourly - level of soda ash shows a downward structure. Today, there was a long negative line and a new low, and the decline has entered an accelerating stage. At the same time, the 01 contract has also broken through the support. The previous divergence structure of the 09 and 01 contracts has become unified. The strategy is to transfer the short positions of the 09 contract to the 01 contract and continue to hold [37]. 13. Caustic Soda - **Logic**: The operation rate of alumina in the demand side remains high, and the operation rate of viscose staple fiber in non - aluminum demand has also increased and remains high. However, the supply of caustic soda itself has increased rapidly, the profit of chlor - alkali has increased, and the operation rate of caustic soda has further increased. With a larger supply increment, the inventory has continued to accumulate, and the fundamentals are still weak [39][41]. - **Technical Analysis**: The hourly - level of caustic soda shows an oscillating structure. After increasing positions and rising in the afternoon today, the 15 - minute short - cycle has turned bullish, and it shows an oscillating trend at the hourly - level. The strategy is to wait and see in the hourly cycle [41].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The rapeseed meal market is strong due to concerns about supply shortages after China imposed high margins on Canadian rapeseed imports. The pork market is weak as group pig enterprises increase sales and high - temperature weather suppresses demand. The soybean oil market is in adjustment with high output and rising inventory [1]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs 3.1 Agricultural Product Sector Overview - Rapeseed meal is strong and is expected to remain at a high level. Pork prices are falling and may continue to decline. Soybean oil prices are in adjustment and the correction may continue [1]. 3.2 Variety Strategy Tracking 3.2.1 Rapeseed Meal and Soybean Meal - The main rapeseed meal 2601 contract and soybean meal 2601 contract are both in an upward trend. High import costs and low domestic inventories support rapeseed meal prices, while uncertain Sino - US economic and trade relations and high import costs support soybean meal prices. Technically, they are strong, and the strategy is to hold light - position long positions [2]. 3.2.2 Pork - The main pork 2511 contract is in a downward trend. Supply is abundant as group pig enterprises and散户猪场 increase sales, and demand is weak due to high - temperature weather. Technically, it is weak, and the strategy is to hold light - position short positions [3][5]. 3.2.3 Corn - The main corn 2511 contract first declined and then rebounded, but the decline was only narrowed. Supply is abundant due to continuous auctions and upcoming new corn, and demand is weak. Technically, it is weak, and the strategy is to hold light - position short positions [6]. 3.2.4 Eggs - The main egg 2510 contract first declined and then rebounded, but the downward trend remains. High egg - laying hen inventory, continuous cold - storage egg release, and weak demand lead to a supply - pressure situation. Technically, it is weak, and the strategy is to hold light - position short positions [8]. 3.2.5 Palm Oil - The main palm oil 2601 contract is slightly adjusted but remains at a high level. Strong exports from Malaysia and concerns about future supply support prices. Technically, it is strong, and the strategy is to hold light - position long positions [10]. 3.2.6 Soybean Oil - The main soybean oil 2601 contract has a significant adjustment. High soybean imports and rising inventory lead to a decline in prices. Technically, it turns weak, and the strategy is to close long positions [12]. 3.2.7 Cotton - The main cotton 2601 contract is in a falling and oscillating state. Old - crop supply is tight, but new - crop supply is expected to increase. Downstream demand shows some improvement but is still weak overall. The strategy is short - term trading [14]. 3.2.8 Red Dates - The main red date 2601 contract first declined and then rebounded, remaining at a high level. Concerns about reduced production in Xinjiang and expected consumption recovery support prices. Technically, it is strong, and the strategy is to hold long positions [16]. 3.2.9 White Sugar - The main white sugar 2601 contract first declined and then rebounded, showing an upward trend. The domestic market atmosphere is warming up, but increasing imports bring supply pressure. Technically, it is strong, and the strategy is to hold long positions [18]. 3.2.10 Apples - The main apple 2510 contract breaks down. The increase in early - maturing apple supply and low inventory lead to price declines. Technically, it turns weak, and the strategy is to close long positions [20].

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core View of the Report The report analyzes the market conditions of various energy and chemical products, including crude oil, styrene, rubber, etc. Most products are under downward pressure, and the report provides corresponding trading strategies based on fundamental and technical analyses [1]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 1. Crude Oil - Fundamental analysis: After the Trump - Russia meeting in Alaska, the geopolitical disturbance weakened, and the crude oil returned to the fundamental logic. With the approaching seasonal demand inflection point and the accelerating OPEC+ production increase, the crude oil surplus pressure will gradually materialize [2]. - Technical analysis: The daily - level of crude oil is in a medium - term/downward structure, and the hourly - level is in a short - term downward structure. The intraday is volatile, and the downward path remains unchanged. The short - term pressure above the hourly level is around 490. The strategy is to hold short positions in the hourly cycle [2]. 2. Styrene (EB) - Fundamental analysis: The supply side has a high weekly operating rate of 78.18%, and new production capacity is planned to be put into operation in August and September. The demand side has a stronger demand recently, but the high port inventory and new production capacity pressure still lead to a large pressure of inventory accumulation. It is still regarded as bearish [5]. - Technical analysis: The hourly - level of styrene is in a short - term downward structure. The intraday is volatile, and the downward path continues. The short - term pressure above is around 7270. The strategy is to hold short positions in the hourly cycle [5]. 3. Rubber - Fundamental analysis: The raw materials in Thailand remain stable during the rainy season in Southeast Asia. The short - term downstream tire operating rate has improved, and the inventory in Qingdao has decreased recently, which provides short - term positive drivers. However, the high tire inventory still suppresses the expected increase in demand, and the medium - term fundamental driver of rubber is still downward [9]. - Technical analysis: The daily - level of rubber is in a medium - term downward structure, and the hourly - level is in a short - term downward structure. It failed to break through the short - term pressure of 15950 after rising and falling back. The pressure level remains valid. The strategy is to hold short positions in the hourly cycle, with a stop - loss reference of 15950 [9]. 4. Synthetic Rubber (BR) - Fundamental analysis: The high production and weak demand situation of synthetic rubber in the medium - term remains unchanged. The high production of butadiene rubber and the large inventory of downstream tires, especially semi - steel tires, are difficult to solve. After the new device is put into operation in the third quarter, the supply pressure of raw material butadiene also remains unchanged. Recently, the butadiene port inventory has returned to the average level in the past five years after rapid accumulation, and the short - term positive factor has disappeared. Coupled with the collapse of the upstream crude oil price, the synthetic rubber still maintains a bearish view [14]. - Technical analysis: The daily - level is in a medium - term oscillatory/downward structure, and the hourly - level is in a short - term downward structure. It failed to break through the short - term pressure of 11950 after rising and falling back. The pressure level remains valid. The strategy is to hold short positions in the hourly cycle [14]. 5. PX - Fundamental analysis: The supply of PX has increased slightly, the PTA operation is stable, the PX fundamentals have weakened, and the inventory reduction has slowed down. However, the polyester load is expected to increase from August to September, and the fundamental contradiction is not significant. The movement of the cost - end crude oil still needs to be concerned [17]. - Technical analysis: The hourly - level of PX is in a short - term downward structure. The intraday is volatile, but the hourly line stood above the short - term pressure of 6780 during the session, and the downward structure may be tested. The strategy is to stop profit for short positions in the hourly cycle as planned [17]. 6. PTA - Fundamental analysis: The supply - side operation has no significant change, but the downstream demand is expected to improve in the peak season from August to September. Coupled with the continuous low processing fee of PTA itself, the supply - demand expectation is strong, but the change of the cost - end crude oil needs to be noted [21]. - Technical analysis: The hourly - level of PTA is in a short - term downward structure. After intraday oscillation, it failed to break through the pressure and fell back. The short - term pressure above still focuses on 4760. The strategy is to hold short positions in the hourly cycle [21]. 7. PP - Fundamental analysis: The supply pressure increases due to the new production capacity put into operation in August. The downstream operation has improved, but the inventory in each link of the industrial chain continues to accumulate, and the fundamentals are weak. The movement of crude oil also needs to be concerned [22]. - Technical analysis: The hourly - level of PP is in a short - term downward structure. It reached a new low with increased positions today, and the downward trend may accelerate. The short - term pressure above temporarily focuses on 7050. The strategy is to hold short positions in the hourly cycle [22]. 8. Methanol - Fundamental analysis: After the Iranian device resumed operation, a large number of shipments arrived at the port recently, and the port inventory has increased significantly both month - on - month and year - on - year. The short - term inventory accumulation speed is fast, which exerts pressure. At the same time, the domestic production remains at a high level, and the traditional downstream is in the off - season, and the downstream raw material inventory is high. The overall fundamentals are still driven bearishly [25]. - Technical analysis: The daily - level of methanol is in a medium - term downward/oscillatory structure, and the short - term is in a downward structure. The intraday is volatile. Specifically, it reached a new low with increased positions at night and then rebounded and repaired during the morning session. The short - term pressure above focuses on 2425 (01 contract). The strategy is to partially stop profit for short positions in the hourly cycle and continue to hold the remaining short positions [25]. 9. PVC - Fundamental analysis: The supply - side operating rate has continued to rise to a year - on - year high of 78.8%. The demand is difficult to improve due to the downward real - estate market and the off - season, and the inventory continues to accumulate, indicating a bearish fundamental driver [29]. - Technical analysis: The daily - level of PVC is in a medium - term upward structure, and the hourly - level is in a short - term downward structure. It reached a new low with increased positions today, and the short - term downward trend may accelerate. The short - term pressure above has moved down to 5060 (01 contract). The strategy is to hold short positions [29]. 10. Ethylene Glycol (EG) - Fundamental analysis: The low port inventory makes the short - term fundamentals of ethylene glycol better than other energy and chemical products, but the inventory accumulation expectation also limits the upward space. The starting time of inventory accumulation needs to be concerned [31]. - Technical analysis: The daily - level of EG is in a medium - term oscillatory/downward structure, and the hourly - level is in a short - term downward structure. It is regarded as a rebound today but failed to break through the pressure, and the short - term downward structure remains valid. The short - term pressure above is 4385. The strategy is to hold short positions in the hourly cycle [31]. 11. Plastic - Fundamental analysis: The supply pressure is relatively large due to the increase in operation and the new production capacity put into operation. The downstream operation remains at a year - on - year low level, and the pressure of continuous inventory accumulation in ports and social inventories is reflected. The supply - demand driver is bearish [34]. - Technical analysis: The daily - level of plastic is in a medium - term oscillatory/downward structure, and the hourly - level is in a downward structure. The downward trend in the hourly level is confirmed after reaching a new low today. The short - term pressure above is referred to as 7345. The strategy is to hold short positions in the hourly cycle [34]. 12. Soda Ash - Fundamental analysis: The supply side continues to increase, the speculative demand of glass on the demand side has weakened except for the rigid demand, the inventory pressure of soda ash plants has increased again, and the heavy - soda inventory has reached a new historical high. The supply - demand pressure of soda ash is still large, and the anti - involution has no substantial impact on the soda ash supply [39]. - Technical analysis: The hourly - level of soda ash is in a downward structure. After a long - negative line broke through the 15 - minute - level oscillation today, the downward trend may accelerate. The structures of the 09 and 01 contracts are still differentiated, still showing a pattern of weak 09 and strong 01. The short - term pressure level of the 09 contract is 1285. The strategy is to hold short positions in the 09 contract [39]. 13. Caustic Soda - Fundamental analysis: The operation of alumina on the demand side remains at a high level, and the operation of viscose staple fiber in non - aluminum demand has also increased and remains at a high level. However, the supply of caustic soda itself has increased rapidly, the profit of chlor - alkali has increased, and the operation of caustic soda has further increased. With a larger supply increment, the inventory continues to accumulate, and the fundamentals are still weak [43]. - Technical analysis: The hourly - level of caustic soda is in an oscillatory structure. After a long - negative line today, the hourly - level upward trend may end. First, look for short - selling opportunities in the 15 - minute downward structure. The short - cycle pressure above the 15 - minute level focuses on 2615. The strategy is to look for short - selling opportunities when the rebound fails to break through the pressure in the 15 - minute period [43].

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints of the Report - Corn prices are under pressure due to ample supply, including continuous auctions of imported corn, strong substitution advantage of wheat, and high expectations of a new corn harvest, and the weak trend is expected to continue [1][2] - Egg prices are also declining as egg - laying hen inventory is high, new production is increasing, and cold - storage eggs are continuously hitting the market, and the weak trend is likely to persist [1][4] - Palm oil prices are rising due to strong exports of Malaysian palm oil and concerns about subsequent supply in production areas [5][7] - Soybean oil shows a pattern of near - term weakness and long - term strength, with short - term supply increase and long - term supply shortage expectations [8][10] - Hog prices are rebounding from a low level, with supply being relatively loose and demand showing signs of mild recovery [11] - Cotton prices are in high - level consolidation, with factors such as declining commercial inventory and weak downstream demand [13] - Jujube prices are fluctuating at a high level, with concerns about production and expectations of improved downstream consumption [16] - Sugar prices are fluctuating at a high level, with supply - side pressure from increasing imports and improved domestic market trading [19] - Soybean meal prices are rising, supported by uncertain Sino - US economic and trade relations and expectations of less imported soybeans in the fourth quarter [20][22] - Apple prices are adjusting at a high level, with low inventory and different situations in different production areas [23] Summary by Related Catalogs 1. Agricultural Products Sector Overview - Corn prices are falling continuously because of ample supply, and the weak trend is expected to continue; egg prices are also in a downward trend due to high supply pressure [1] 2. Variety Strategy Tracking (1) Corn - The main 2511 contract of corn is falling continuously to new lows because of ample supply, including continuous auctions of imported corn, strong substitution advantage of wheat, and approaching new corn listing. Technically, it is weak, and a light - short position strategy is recommended. The support level is 2150, and the resistance level is 2180 [2] (2) Egg - The main 2510 contract of eggs is falling under supply pressure, with high egg - laying hen inventory, increasing new production, and continuous release of cold - storage eggs. Technically, it is weak, and a light - short position strategy is recommended. The support level is 3050, and the resistance level is 3080 [4] (3) Palm Oil - The main 2601 contract of palm oil is rising, boosted by strong exports of Malaysian palm oil and concerns about subsequent supply in production areas. Technically, it is strong, and a light - long position strategy is recommended. The support level is 9508, and the resistance level is 9736 [7] (4) Soybean Oil - The main 2601 contract of soybean oil is fluctuating at a high level, with short - term supply increase due to concentrated arrival of imported soybeans and long - term supply shortage expectations. Technically, it is in an upward trend, and a long - position holding strategy is recommended. The support level is 8500, and the resistance level is 8580 [8][10] (5) Hog - The main 2511 contract of hogs is rebounding from a low level. Supply is relatively loose, and demand is showing mild recovery. Technically, the main downward trend is still in place, and a short - position reduction strategy is recommended. The support level is 13800, and the resistance level is 14950 [11] (6) Cotton - The main 2601 contract of cotton is in high - level consolidation, with declining commercial inventory, less imported cotton, and weak downstream demand. Technically, it is recommended to close long positions. The support level is 14050, and the resistance level is 14200 [13] (7) Jujube - The main 2601 contract of jujubes is fluctuating at a high level. There are concerns about production decline, and downstream consumption is expected to improve. Technically, it is strong, and a long - position holding strategy is recommended. The support level is 11435, and the resistance level is 11825 [16] (8) Sugar - The main 2601 contract of sugar is fluctuating at a high level. Domestic market trading is improving, but import volume is increasing, putting pressure on the supply side. Technically, it is strong, and a long - position holding strategy is recommended. The support level is 5647, and the resistance level is 5700 [19] (9) Soybean Meal - The main 2601 contract of soybean meal is rising, supported by uncertain Sino - US economic and trade relations and expectations of less imported soybeans in the fourth quarter. Technically, it is strong, and a light - long position strategy is recommended. The support level is 3154, and the resistance level is 3190 [20][22] (10) Apple - The main 2510 contract of apples is adjusting at a high level, with low inventory and different situations in different production areas. Technically, the upward trend remains, and a long - position holding strategy is recommended. The support level is 8108, and the resistance level is 8250 [23]

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core View of the Report The report analyzes the market conditions of various energy and chemical products, including crude oil, styrene, rubber, etc. It points out that most products have a bearish short - term outlook, with supply - demand imbalances and technical indicators suggesting downward trends. The market trends of some products are also affected by the movement of crude oil and other factors [1][2][5]. Summary by Related Catalogs Crude Oil - Logic: In September, the production increase is 547,000 barrels per day. The end of the peak season in the US leads to weak apparent demand, and the geopolitical situation has an impact. The supply - demand fundamentals are weakening [1][2]. - Technical Analysis: The daily - level is in a medium - term/downward structure, and the hourly - level is in a short - term downward structure. There was a rebound with reduced positions today, and it's considered a small - scale repair after breaking through the support. The short - term pressure on the hourly level is at 490. The strategy is to hold short positions on the hourly cycle [2]. Styrene (EB) - Logic: In August, demand is still in the off - season and remains weak. The supply operation rate is maintained at a high level of around 77%, and new device production will increase supply pressure. Inventory pressure is relatively high year - on - year, and supply - demand is weak [5]. - Technical Analysis: The hourly - level is in a short - term downward structure. It oscillated today, and the short - term downward path remains unchanged. The short - term pressure is at 7375. The strategy is to hold short positions on the hourly cycle [5]. Rubber - Logic: According to seasonal logic, prices should be stronger in the second half of the year, but this year, the supply side has difficulty increasing production. Although the rainy season in the production area has an impact, there is no extreme weather. Short - term improvement in downstream tire operation provides some support, but high tire inventory restricts further improvement. The medium - term fundamental driving force is downward [9]. - Technical Analysis: The daily - level is in a medium - term downward structure, and the hourly - level is in a short - term downward structure. There was an upward movement in the afternoon today, testing the short - term pressure at 15950 but not breaking through. The strategy is to hold short positions on the hourly cycle, with a stop - loss reference at 15950 [9]. Synthetic Rubber (BR) - Logic: The demand side of tires has a weak medium - term outlook. The supply side has not fully resumed production after maintenance, and production is relatively high under the pressure of new production capacity, so it is bearish in the medium - term. It is supported in the short - term by the low inventory of upstream butadiene [14]. - Technical Analysis: The daily - level is in a medium - term oscillating/downward structure, and the hourly - level is in a short - term downward structure. It followed the upward movement of rubber in the afternoon today, but the trading volume was weaker. The short - term pressure at 11950 for the 10 - contract remains effective. The strategy is to hold short positions on the hourly cycle [14]. PX - Logic: The upstream PX devices are operating stably. The downstream terminal's operating rate has increased slightly during the off - peak to peak season transition, but the short - term contradiction is not significant, and it may follow the direction of the cost - end crude oil [19]. - Technical Analysis: The hourly - level is in a short - term downward structure. Today's movement is considered a rebound after breaking through the support. The short - term pressure is at 6735. The strategy is to hold short positions on the hourly cycle [19]. PTA - Logic: The demand for polyester is weak. The supply - side operating rate is at a medium level year - on - year, and short - term inventory has shifted to accumulation. The contradiction is not obvious, and it may follow the direction of the cost - end crude oil [21]. - Technical Analysis: The hourly - level is in][21]. PP - Logic: During the demand off - season, the downstream operating rate is weak. With the launch of new production capacity and the restart of maintenance devices, inventory in all links of the industry chain continues to accumulate, and the fundamentals are weak. It is also necessary to pay attention to the movement of crude oil [23]. - Technical Analysis: The hourly - level is in a short - term downward structure. It oscillated today without changing the downward structure. The hourly - level pressure is at 7195, and the 15 - minute cycle pressure can be focused on at 7090 first. The strategy is to hold short positions on the hourly cycle [23]. Methanol - Logic: The supply - side operating rate has rebounded to 73% after two consecutive weeks of increase, reaching the highest level in history year - on - year. The arrival volume in July was low due to Iranian device shutdowns, but it is expected to increase significantly in August. Downstream demand is differentiated, and port inventory has reached the highest level in the same period in the past five years under high - supply pressure, so the fundamental driving force is weak [28]. - Technical Analysis: The daily - level is in a medium - term downward/oscillating structure, and the hourly - level is in a short - term downward structure. Today, there was a large - volume long - negative line after increasing positions, and it accelerated downward after breaking through the support. The short - term pressure has moved down to 2360 (09 contract). The strategy is to hold short positions on the hourly cycle [28]. PVC - Logic: Some supply - side devices have ended maintenance, and the operating rate has rebounded to a high level of 77.8% year - on - year. The demand is difficult to improve due to the downward trend in the real - estate market and the off - season. Inventory has continued to accumulate, and the fundamental driving force is bearish [30]. - Technical Analysis: The daily - level is in a medium - term upward structure, and the hourly - level is in a short - term downward structure. After a large - volume long - negative line with increased positions today, it remains on a downward path. The short - term pressure is at 5070. The strategy is to hold short positions on the hourly cycle and consider moving positions to the 01 contract [30]. Ethylene Glycol (EG) - Logic: The relatively low port inventory makes the short - term fundamentals of ethylene glycol better than other energy and chemical products, but the inventory accumulation expectation also limits the upside space. It is necessary to pay attention to the start time of inventory accumulation [32]. - Technical Analysis: The daily - level is in a medium - term oscillating/downward structure, and the hourly - level is in a short - term downward structure. It oscillated today, waiting to confirm the downward acceleration after breaking through the support. The short - term pressure is at 4415. The strategy is to hold short positions on the hourly cycle [32]. Plastic - Logic: The increase in operating rate and the launch of new production capacity lead to large supply pressure. The downstream operating rate remains at a low level year - on - year, and inventory in ports and society continues to accumulate, so the supply - demand driving force is bearish [36]. - Technical Analysis: The daily - level is in a medium - term oscillating/downward structure, and the hourly - level is in an oscillating structure. It oscillated today, and the hourly - level structure is not clear, while the 15 - minute level is in a downward structure. The strategy is to wait and see on the hourly cycle and hold short positions on the 15 - minute cycle, with a stop - loss reference at 7320 [36]. Soda Ash - Logic: The supply side continued to increase production last week, with a month - on - month increase of 45,000 tons in output. The speculative demand in the glass market has weakened except for rigid demand. The inventory pressure of soda ash plants has increased significantly again, and the heavy - soda inventory has reached a new historical high. The supply - demand pressure of soda ash is still large, and the anti - involution has no substantial impact on soda ash supply [37]. - Technical Analysis: The hourly - level is in a downward structure. It tested the short - term pressure today but failed and closed with a long upper shadow. The 09 and 01 contracts have different structures, with the 09 contract in a downward trend and the 01 contract in an upward trend. The short - term pressure of the 09 contract is at 1295. The strategy is to hold short positions on the 09 contract, with a stop - loss reference at 1310 [37][39]. Caustic Soda - Logic: The demand side has a high operating rate for alumina, and the operating rate of non - aluminum demand for viscose staple fiber has also increased and remains at a high level. However, the supply of caustic soda itself has increased rapidly, the profit of chlor - alkali has increased, and the operating rate of caustic soda has further increased. With a larger supply increment, the inventory continues to accumulate, and the fundamentals are still weak [41]. - Technical Analysis: The hourly - level is in an oscillating structure. The 09 and 01 contracts still have different structures, with the 01 contract being stronger and the 09 contract being weaker. It oscillated on the disk today. The strategy is to start from the 15 - minute cycle of the 09 contract and try short positions after breaking through the 15 - minute support at 2510, with a stop - loss at today's high [41][43].

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No investment rating information is provided in the report. 2. Core View of the Report The decline in crude oil prices has led to a downward trend in the energy - chemical sector. Most energy - chemical products are facing weak fundamentals and show a downward trend in the short - term technical analysis, with investment strategies mainly suggesting holding short positions [1][2]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs (1) Crude Oil - **Logic**: In September, the production increase rate continued at 547,000 barrels per day. The end of the peak season in the US led to weak apparent demand, and the supply - demand fundamentals continued to deteriorate. Geopolitically, the US and Russia agreed to hold cease - fire negotiations on the Russia - Ukraine conflict [2][3]. - **Technical Analysis**: The daily - level mid - term and hourly - level short - term are both in a downward structure. After today's decline, the daily - level break - down was confirmed, and the short - term pressure on the hourly level moved down to 490. The strategy is to hold short positions on the hourly cycle [3]. (2) Benzene Ethylene (EB) - **Logic**: In August, demand was still in the off - season and remained weak. The supply start - up rate remained at a high level of around 77%. With the commissioning of new plants, supply pressure would further increase, and inventory pressure was relatively high year - on - year [6]. - **Technical Analysis**: The hourly - level short - term is in a downward structure. Today, it increased positions and declined, testing the lower edge of the 15 - minute oscillation. The short - term pressure above is at 7375. The strategy is to hold short positions on the hourly cycle [6]. (3) Rubber - **Logic**: According to the seasonal pattern, prices should be stronger in the second half of the year, but this year, the supply side has difficulty increasing production. Although there is some impact from the rainy season in the producing areas, there is no extreme weather. Short - term tire start - up has improved, but high tire inventory still suppresses the expectation of further start - up recovery. The mid - term fundamental driver is downward [9]. - **Technical Analysis**: The daily - level mid - term and hourly - level short - term are both in a downward structure. Today, it increased positions and declined. The 15 - minute small cycle turned down, and there was a reversal signal at the 15950 pressure level on the hourly level. There is an opportunity to try short positions on the hourly cycle, with a stop - loss reference of 15950 [9]. (4) Synthetic Rubber (BR) - **Logic**: The demand side of tires is expected to remain weak in the medium term. The supply side has not resumed production after maintenance, and production is higher than new capacity, so it is bearish in the medium term. Short - term support comes from the low inventory of upstream butadiene [12]. - **Technical Analysis**: The daily - level mid - term is in an oscillatory/downward structure, and the hourly - level short - term is in a downward structure. Today, it increased positions and declined. There was a confirmed reversal signal at the 11950 short - term pressure level of the 10 - contract. The strategy is to hold short positions on the hourly cycle [12]. (5) PX - **Logic**: The upstream PX device is operating stably. The start - up of downstream terminals has increased at a low level during the off - peak to peak season transition. There is no major short - term contradiction, and it may follow the direction of the cost - end crude oil [16]. - **Technical Analysis**: The hourly - level short - term is in a downward structure. Today, it increased positions and had a long negative line. After a short - term break - down, the decline accelerated, and the short - term pressure above moved down to 6735. The strategy is to hold short positions on the hourly cycle [16]. (6) PTA - **Logic**: Polyester demand is weak. The supply - side start - up is at a medium level year - on - year. Short - term inventory has turned to accumulation. There is no obvious contradiction, and it may follow the direction of the cost - end crude oil [19]. - **Technical Analysis**: The hourly - level short - term is in a downward structure. Today, it increased positions and declined during the day. After a short - term break - down, the decline may accelerate. The short - term pressure above still focuses on 4760. The strategy is to hold short positions on the hourly cycle [19]. (7) PP - **Logic**: In the off - season of demand, downstream start - up is weak. With the commissioning of new capacity and the restart of maintenance devices, inventory in each link of the industrial chain continues to accumulate, and the fundamentals are weak. Also, pay attention to the trend of crude oil [22]. - **Technical Analysis**: The hourly - level short - term is in a downward structure. Today, it oscillated during the day without changing the downward structure. The hourly pressure level of 7195 is far away, and the 15 - minute cycle pressure of 7090 can be focused on first. The strategy is to hold short positions on the hourly cycle [22]. (8) Methanol - **Logic**: The supply - side start - up rate has rebounded to 73% after two consecutive weeks of increase, remaining at the highest level in history year - on - year. The arrival in July was low due to Iranian plant shutdowns, but the Iranian plants resumed in August, and the arrival is expected to increase significantly. Downstream demand is differentiated. Under high - supply pressure, port inventory has reached the highest level in the same period in the past five years, and the fundamental driver is weak [24]. - **Technical Analysis**: The daily - level mid - term is in a downward/oscillatory structure, and the short - term is in a downward structure. After a long negative line with increased positions and volume today, the short - term break - down accelerated, and the short - term pressure above is 2400. The strategy is to hold short positions on the hourly cycle [24]. (9) PVC - **Logic**: Some supply - side devices have ended maintenance, and the start - up rate has rebounded to a high level of 77.8% year - on - year. Demand is difficult to improve due to the downward real - estate market and the off - season. The pressure of continuous inventory accumulation is evident, and the fundamental driver is bearish [27]. - **Technical Analysis**: The daily - level mid - term is in an upward structure, and the hourly - level short - term is in a downward structure. After a long negative line with increased positions and volume today, it is still on a downward path, and the short - term pressure above is 5070. The strategy is to hold short positions on the hourly cycle [27]. (10) Ethylene Glycol (EG) - **Logic**: The low port inventory makes the short - term fundamentals of ethylene glycol better than other energy - chemical products, but the expectation of inventory accumulation also limits the upward space. Pay attention to the start time of inventory accumulation [30]. - **Technical Analysis**: The daily - level mid - term is in an oscillatory/downward structure, and the hourly - level short - term is in a downward structure. Today, it declined with volume. Wait for the confirmation of a break - down and then the decline will accelerate. The short - term pressure above is 4415. The strategy is to hold short positions on the hourly cycle [30]. (11) Plastic - **Logic**: The start - up rate has increased, and with the commissioning of new capacity, the supply pressure is relatively large. The downstream start - up rate remains at a low level year - on - year. The pressure of continuous inventory accumulation in ports and social inventories is evident, and the supply - demand driver is bearish [32]. - **Technical Analysis**: The daily - level mid - term is in an oscillatory/downward structure, and the hourly - level is in an oscillatory structure. Today, it oscillated during the day, and the hourly - level structure is not clear. The 15 - minute level is in a downward structure. The strategy is to wait and see on the hourly cycle and hold short positions on the 15 - minute cycle, with a stop - loss reference of 7320 [32]. (12) Soda Ash - **Logic**: The supply side continued to increase production last week, with a month - on - month increase of 45,000 tons in output. On the demand side, in addition to the rigid demand for glass, speculative demand has weakened. The inventory pressure of soda ash plants has increased significantly again, and the heavy - soda inventory has reached a new historical high. The inventory pressure is large, and the supply - demand pressure of soda ash remains high. The anti - involution has no substantial impact on the soda ash supply [33]. - **Technical Analysis**: The hourly - level is in a downward structure. Today, it oscillated. The 09 and 01 contracts still have differentiated structures, with the 09 contract declining and the 01 contract rising. There was a reversal signal at the 1295 pressure level of the 09 contract during the session. There is an opportunity to try short positions on the 09 contract, with a stop - loss reference of 1310 [33]. (13) Caustic Soda - **Logic**: On the demand side, the start - up of alumina remains at a high level, and the start - up of non - aluminum demand viscose staple fiber has also increased and remains at a high level. However, the supply of caustic soda itself has also increased rapidly, the chlor - alkali profit has increased, and the caustic soda start - up has further increased. With a larger supply increment, the inventory has continued to accumulate, and the fundamentals remain weak [37]. - **Technical Analysis**: The hourly - level is in an oscillatory structure. The 09 and 01 contracts are still differentiated. The 01 contract has a strong structure but performed weakly today, and the 09 contract has a weaker structure but performed strongly today. At the same time, the 09 contract shows signs of breaking through the 2540 pressure. The strategy is to start from the 15 - minute cycle of the 09 contract and try short positions after breaking through the 15 - minute 2515 support, with a stop - loss at today's high [37].

1. Report's Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core View of the Report The agricultural products sector shows mixed trends. Oils are experiencing a high - level correction, with the overall upward trend of palm oil not materially changed. The far - month main contract of live pigs has tumbled due to high supply and weak demand. Cotton prices are rising steadily supported by low inventory and imports. Different agricultural products have their own supply - demand and market factors influencing their price movements [1]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs 3.1 Agricultural Products Sector Overview - Oils have corrected from high levels. After a previous sharp rise, the Zhengzhou Commodity Exchange issued a risk warning letter for rapeseed oil, cooling market sentiment. Rapeseed oil dropped significantly, dragging down palm oil and soybean oil. However, there are still positive factors in the palm oil producing areas, so the adjustment range may be limited, and the overall upward trend remains unchanged. - The far - month main contract of live pigs has broken through key levels and fallen sharply because of high inventory, increased planned shipments by group pig enterprises, and weak summer demand. - Cotton prices are rising steadily, supported by low inventory and imports [1]. 3.2 Variety Strategy Tracking 3.2.1 Palm Oil - The main 2601 contract of palm oil has corrected from high levels. The Zhengzhou Commodity Exchange's risk warning letter for rapeseed oil cooled market sentiment, causing palm oil to adjust. Malaysia's palm oil export data in August was strong, but production is expected to remain high. In the domestic market, high costs support the spot price, and the import profit window has opened recently. Technically, the contract is still in a strong position, and the recommended strategy is to hold light - position long orders [2]. 3.2.2 Soybean Oil - The main 2601 contract of soybean oil has adjusted after a continuous rise. The USDA's August supply - demand report was unexpectedly positive, but recent concentrated arrivals of imported soybeans and high - level oil mill crushing may limit the increase. Technically, it is still in a strong position, and the recommended strategy is to hold light - position long orders [4]. 3.2.3 Live Pigs - The main 2511 contract of live pigs has fallen sharply, entering a downward trend. Supply is abundant in August, and demand is weak due to high temperatures and alternative consumption. Technically, it is in a weak position, and the recommended strategy is to hold light - position short orders [6]. 3.2.4 Cotton - The main 2601 contract of cotton has continued to rise. Low commercial and industrial inventories and the delayed issuance of import quotas support the price. Although the downstream textile industry is in the off - season, the contract is technically strong, and the recommended strategy is to hold light - position long orders [9]. 3.2.5 Eggs - The main 2510 contract of eggs has first declined and then risen, showing a volatile market. High egg - laying hen inventory, continuous出库 of cold - storage eggs, and increased old - hen slaughter are the main factors. Technically, it is in a weak position, and the recommended strategy is to hold light - position short orders [10][12]. 3.2.6 Red Dates - The main 2601 contract of red dates is fluctuating at high levels. The market is concerned about the expected supply contraction of new - season red dates due to adverse weather. The upcoming Mid - Autumn and National Day stocking periods are expected to drive inventory reduction. Technically, it is in a strong position, and the recommended strategy is to hold long orders [13][15]. 3.2.7 White Sugar - The main 2601 contract of white sugar is rising in a volatile manner. Favorable domestic sales data and low industrial inventory support the price, but the expected concentrated arrival of imported sugar may suppress it. Technically, it is in a strong position, and the recommended strategy is to hold light - position long orders [16]. 3.2.8 Corn - The main 2511 contract of corn has encountered resistance in its rebound. Continuous auctions of imported corn by Sinograin, wheat substitution, and good growth of new corn limit its rebound space. Technically, it is in a weak position, and the recommended strategy is to hold short orders [18]. 3.2.9 Soybean Meal - The main 2601 contract of soybean meal is adjusting at high levels, but the upward trend remains. The USDA's August supply - demand report was positive, but there is profit - taking pressure. The expected tight supply of imported soybeans in the fourth quarter and rising import costs support the price. Technically, it is in a strong position, and the recommended strategy is to hold light - position long orders [21]. 3.2.10 Apples - The main 2510 contract of apples is adjusting at high levels. Low inventory supports the price. The procurement situation of early - maturing apples varies by region. Technically, it is in a strong position, and the recommended strategy is to place long orders on dips [22][24].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided in the content. 2. Core View of the Report The agricultural products sector shows diverse trends. Palm oil is expected to be strong due to positive supply - demand reports and strong exports. Eggs are under pressure from high supply. Pork prices are affected by supply - demand imbalance. Red dates are rising on production reduction expectations and holiday stocking. Other products like soybean oil, sugar, corn, etc. also have their own influencing factors and price trends [1]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs 3.1 Agricultural Products Sector Overview - Palm oil is strongly supported by positive monthly supply - demand reports from Malaysia and strong early - August exports, with a bullish outlook [1]. - Eggs have dropped significantly because of high laying - hen inventory, abundant supply, and the impact of cold - stored eggs on the market [1]. - Red dates continue to rise due to expected production reduction in the new season and the start of the Mid - Autumn and National Day stocking period [1]. - Pork prices have fallen after a rise because of accelerated supply from farmers and insufficient consumer demand [1]. 3.2 Variety Strategy Tracking 3.2.1 Palm Oil - The main 2509 contract has reached a new high this year. Malaysia's July palm oil production increased 7.09% to 181 million tons, exports rose 3.82% to 131 million tons, and inventory increased 4.02% to 211 million tons. August 1 - 10 exports increased 23.3% and 24% compared to the previous period. The market expects increased demand from India before the October Diwali [2]. - Technically, the contract is strong. The strategy is to hold a light long position, with support at 8940 and resistance at 9250 [4]. 3.2.2 Eggs - The main 2510 contract has fallen sharply. In July, the national laying - hen inventory was about 1.292 billion, a 1.73% month - on - month and 7.14% year - on - year increase. Cold - stored eggs are impacting the market [5]. - Technically, it is weak. The strategy is to hold a light short position, with support at 3160 and resistance at 3254 [5]. 3.2.3 Pork - The main 2511 contract first rose and then fell. Supply pressure remains high, with low demand in summer, increased fattening costs, and some pig diseases. Demand is limited, especially in the southern regions [7]. - Technically, the upward trend remains. The strategy is to hold a long position, with support at 14060 and resistance at 14325 [7]. 3.2.4 Red Dates - The main 2601 contract has continued to rise. New - season production is expected to be 56 - 62 million tons, a 20 - 25% year - on - year decrease. The Mid - Autumn and National Day stocking period has started [9]. - Technically, it is strong. The strategy is to hold a light long position, with support at 11400 and resistance at 11900 [9]. 3.2.5 Soybean Oil - The main 2601 contract has continued to rise, driven by the strength of palm oil. Uncertain US soybean purchases, soybean oil exports, and expected inventory reduction during the autumn and holidays support the price [11]. - Technically, it is strong. The strategy is to hold a light long position, with support at 8288 and resistance at 8466 [11]. 3.2.6 Sugar - The main 2509 contract has continued to decline. Imported sugar is expected to increase, and domestic sugar de - stocking may slow down. Beet sugar will start production in September, increasing supply [13]. - Technically, it is weak. The strategy is to hold a light short position, with support at 5550 and resistance at 5599 [13]. 3.2.7 Corn - The main 2509 contract is in a low - level oscillation. Continuous auctions of imported corn, wheat substitution, and low demand from downstream enterprises are pressuring the price. New - season corn has a good harvest outlook [15]. - Technically, it is weak. The strategy is to hold a short position, with support at 2245 and resistance at 2268 [15]. 3.2.8 Soybean Meal - The main 2601 contract has oscillated downward. Trump's call for China to buy more US soybeans may change the import situation. In July, domestic oil mills had a high operating rate, increasing soybean meal output and inventory [19]. - Technically, it is weak. The strategy is short - term trading, with support at 3034 and resistance at 3107 [19]. 3.2.9 Cotton - The main 2601 contract has oscillated upward. Xinjiang cotton has a good growth outlook, but current commercial inventory is low, and there are expectations of supply shortage before new - cotton listing. The textile industry is in a low season [20]. - Technically, it is strong. The strategy is to close short positions and open light long positions, with support at 13800 and resistance at 14000 [22]. 3.2.10 Apples - The main 2510 contract has continued to rise. As of August 6, the national apple cold - storage inventory was 533,900 tons and decreasing. New - season apple listing is delayed due to weather [23]. - Technically, it is strong. The strategy is to buy on dips, with support at 8050 and resistance at 8200 [23].

Report Summary Industry Investment Rating No industry investment rating is provided in the report. Core Viewpoint The probability of crude oil continuing to decline remains relatively high, and the energy and chemical sector may await an accelerated decline in crude oil for guidance. Most energy and chemical varieties are currently in a state of short - term decline, with many recommended to hold short positions. Summary by Variety 1. Crude Oil - **Logic**: In September, the production increase rate is 547,000 barrels per day. The end - of - peak - season demand in the US is weakening and is weaker than in previous years, indicating a continuous realization of the expectation of weakening supply - demand fundamentals. Geopolitically, the US and Russia agreed to cease - fire negotiations on the Russia - Ukraine conflict over the weekend [2]. - **Technical Analysis**: The daily - level is in a medium - term oscillating/declining structure, and the hourly - level is in a short - term declining structure. The strategy is to hold short positions on the hourly cycle [2]. 2. Benzene Ethylene (EB) - **Logic**: In August, demand was weak as it was still in the off - season. The supply operating rate remained at a high level of around 77%. With the commissioning of new devices, supply pressure will further increase, and inventory pressure is relatively high year - on - year. Although the cost side of pure benzene has slightly improved, the supply - demand situation is still weak [5]. - **Technical Analysis**: The hourly - level shows a short - term declining structure. The intraday oscillation today did not change the downward path. The short - term upper pressure is temporarily focused on the 7375 line. The strategy is to hold short positions on the hourly cycle [5]. 3. Rubber - **Logic**: According to seasonal patterns, prices should be stronger in the second half of the year, but this year, the supply side has difficulty increasing output even with normal weather. The rainy season in the producing areas has some impact, but there are no extreme weather conditions. Short - term tire production has improved, providing some support, but high tire inventories still suppress the expected increase in production. The medium - term fundamental driving force for rubber is downward [8]. - **Technical Analysis**: The daily - level shows a medium - term decline, and the hourly - level shows a short - term decline. Today, there was a small increase in positions and strength. Although it did not exceed the short - term pressure of 15120, after breaking through the 14600 line of 15 - minute pressure, short positions can be closed first and then re - entered after a 15 - minute breakdown. The strategy is to close short positions and then look for re - entry opportunities on the hourly cycle [8]. 4. Synthetic Rubber (BR) - **Logic**: The demand side of tires is expected to remain weak in the medium term. On the supply side, the operating rate has not recovered after maintenance and has not increased again. Currently, production is relatively high, and under the pressure of new production capacity, it is bearish in the medium term. In the short term, it is supported by the low inventory of upstream butadiene [13]. - **Technical Analysis**: The daily - level is in a medium - term oscillating/declining structure, and the hourly - level short - term declining structure is being tested. Today, the market increased in positions and strengthened. After breaking through the short - term pressure, it may reverse in the short term. The strategy is to close short positions on the hourly cycle [13]. 5. PX - **Logic**: Upstream PX devices are operating stably. The operating rate of downstream terminals has increased slightly during the off - peak to peak season transition, but there are no significant short - term contradictions. It may follow the direction of the cost - end crude oil [17]. - **Technical Analysis**: The hourly - level shows a short - term declining structure. Today, there was a rebound, but it did not change the downward path. The short - term upper pressure is still focused on the 6825 line. The strategy is to hold short positions on the hourly cycle [17]. 6. PTA - **Logic**: Polyester demand is weak. The supply operating rate is at a medium level year - on - year. Short - term inventory is starting to accumulate, and there are no obvious contradictions. It may follow the direction of the cost - end crude oil [18]. - **Technical Analysis**: The hourly - level shows a short - term declining structure. Today, there was a rebound and repair. The intraday oscillation did not change the downward path. The short - term upper pressure is still focused on the 4760 line. The strategy is to hold short positions on the hourly cycle [18]. 7. PP - **Logic**: During the off - season of demand, downstream operating rates are weak. With the commissioning of new production capacity and the restart of maintenance devices, inventories in all links of the industrial chain continue to accumulate, and the fundamentals are weak. At the same time, pay attention to the trend of crude oil [20]. - **Technical Analysis**: The hourly - level shows a short - term declining structure. Today, it oscillated intraday without changing the declining structure. The hourly - level pressure at 7195 is relatively far, and the 7100 line of the 15 - minute cycle pressure can be focused on first. The strategy is to hold short positions on the hourly cycle [20]. 8. Methanol - **Logic**: The supply operating rate has increased for two consecutive weeks to 73%, remaining at the highest level in history year - on - year. The arrivals in July were low due to Iranian device shutdowns, but in August, with the recovery of Iranian devices, arrivals are expected to increase significantly. Downstream demand is differentiated. Under high supply pressure, port inventories have reached the highest level in the same period in the past five years, and the fundamental driving force is weak [25]. - **Technical Analysis**: The daily - level is in a medium - term declining/oscillating structure, and the short - term is in a declining structure. Today, it oscillated intraday. The short - term upper pressure is temporarily focused on the 2400 line. The strategy is to hold short positions on the hourly cycle [25]. 9. PVC - **Logic**: On the supply side, some devices have ended maintenance, and the operating rate has increased to a year - on - year high of 77.8%. Due to the downward trend in the real estate market and the off - season, demand is hard to improve, and inventory pressure is increasing due to continuous accumulation. The fundamental driving force is bearish [27]. - **Technical Analysis**: The daily - level shows a medium - term rising structure, and the hourly - level shows a short - term declining structure. Today, it oscillated intraday, and the downward path remained unchanged. The short - term upper pressure is still focused on the 5070 line. The strategy is to hold short positions on the hourly cycle [27]. 10. Ethylene Glycol (EG) - **Logic**: The low port inventory makes the short - term fundamentals of ethylene glycol better than other energy and chemical varieties, but the expectation of inventory accumulation also limits the upside space. Pay attention to the start time of inventory accumulation [29]. - **Technical Analysis**: The daily - level is in a medium - term oscillating/declining structure, and the hourly - level is in a short - term declining structure. Today, it rebounded and tested the short - term pressure at the 4425 line but did not break through. The strategy is to hold short positions on the hourly cycle [29]. 11. Plastic - **Logic**: The increase in operating rate and the commissioning of new production capacity have led to relatively large supply pressure. Downstream operating rates remain at a low level year - on - year, and the pressure of continuous inventory accumulation in ports and social inventories is evident. The supply - demand driving force is bearish [33]. - **Technical Analysis**: The daily - level is in a medium - term oscillating/declining structure, and the hourly - level is in an oscillating structure. Today, it oscillated intraday, and the hourly - level structure is not clear. The 15 - minute level also shows an oscillating structure. The strategy is to wait and see on the hourly cycle, and stop losses on 15 - minute short positions and then wait and see [33]. 12. Soda Ash - **Logic**: On the supply side, production continued to increase last week, with a month - on - month increase of 45,000 tons. On the demand side, in addition to rigid demand for glass, speculative demand has weakened. The inventory pressure of soda ash plants has increased significantly again, and the heavy soda inventory has reached a new historical high. The supply - demand pressure of soda ash remains large, and anti - involution has not had a substantial impact on soda ash supply [34]. - **Technical Analysis**: The hourly - level shows a declining structure. Today, it oscillated intraday. The hourly - level pressure at 1470 is relatively far, and the 1390 pressure at the upper edge of the 15 - minute oscillation range can be focused on first. The strategy is to hold short positions on the hourly cycle, and the stop - profit reference is the 1390 pressure on the 15 - minute cycle [34]. 13. Caustic Soda - **Logic**: On the demand side, the operating rate of alumina remains high, and the operating rate of viscose staple fiber, a non - aluminum demand, has also increased and remains high. However, the supply of caustic soda itself has increased rapidly, the profit of chlor - alkali has increased, and the operating rate of caustic soda has further increased. With a larger increase in supply, inventory has continued to accumulate, and the fundamentals remain weak [36]. - **Technical Analysis**: The hourly - level shows a declining structure. Today, it rebounded with a reduction in positions but did not exceed the hourly - level pressure at the 2515 line and has not reversed. The strategy is to look for short - selling signals on the hourly cycle [36].