多晶硅、碳酸锂、工业硅日报 （一）多晶硅 市场走势：今日多晶硅期货偏强运行，主力 2601 合约较上一交 易日收盘价下跌 1.98%，报 57430 元/吨。 核心逻辑：11 月底多晶硅仓单集中注销后，仓单量大幅减少。 当前主要交易逻辑集中在市场上符合要求的可交割资源偏紧，资金面 扰动较大。从过去交易所介入后对行情的影响来看，本次交易所限仓 提保对盘面的影响相对较小，今日延续偏强运行。若交割规则问题不 解决，叠加新仓单数量不多的格局延续，谨慎防范 2601 合约复刻 2512 合约 11 月底的走势。基本面来看，多晶硅现货价格持稳，延续累库 格局，全产业链需求整体疲弱，下游硅片及电池片价格均有一定程度 下调。 技术面分析：今日多晶硅期货整体持仓量小幅增加，仍是多头控 盘。日内 9：05 有"首 K 突破法"叠加成交量大放量的上行介入机会， 给到了 1：2 盈亏比。目前多晶硅主力 2601 合约 5 分钟级别周期为红 线红带红阶梯，隔夜 2 小时级别周期仍是红色阶梯线偏强，仍在震荡 区间上沿，关注是否能突破震荡区间，多空分水位 55235 元/吨。 策略建议：本次交易所限仓提保对多晶硅盘面影响较小，仍维持 偏强 ...

鸡蛋下挫、白糖续跌 2.鸡蛋主力 2601 合约大幅下挫，在均线之下扩跌，MACD 死叉后 绿柱扩大，技术偏弱。策略上轻仓抛空。 （二）白糖：持续下跌 焦点关注：郑糖主力 2601 合约持续下跌，受到新糖上市的供应 压力： 1.国内广西、云南甘蔗开榨进度持续推进，广西已有超过 40 家 糖厂开榨，云南开榨糖厂超过 10 家。进入 12 月后，广西和云南将迎 来开榨高峰。新糖不断上市，现货价格回落。现货市场整体购销氛围 偏淡，榨季开启后新糖季节性供应压力增大。 2.白糖主力 2601 合约跌破均线系统，各均线转向空头排列，技 术弱势，策略上逢高轻仓空单，2601 合约阻力位 5381。 一、农产品板块综述 周三鸡蛋当月合约大幅下跌，蛋鸡存栏高企，供应压力较大，需 求一般，鸡蛋期价承压下挫，后市偏弱运行。白糖持续走低，南方糖 厂甘蔗压榨持续推进，白糖季节性供应压力增大，期价破位下行，走 势偏弱。棕油震荡有升，产区产量下降支撑行情，关注 12 月马棕油 官方供需报告数据，近期棕油偏强运行。 二、品种策略跟踪 （一）鸡蛋：大幅下挫 焦点关注：鸡蛋近月 2601 合约大幅下挫，受到产能高企的压力： 1. 蛋鸡存栏量仍处 ...

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The short - term core of crude oil is geopolitics. For crude oil, the geopolitical logic is pessimistic about the ceasefire between Russia and Ukraine, and there is an upward - revision risk if the negotiation fails again. The risk in the Caribbean region is expected to escalate, with a potential pulse - like upward movement. In the chemical industry, aromatics and methanol are the core varieties for long positions. Aromatics are mainly in an expected - based market, and methanol has upward - correction space due to unexpected Iranian over - maintenance [1]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Crude Oil - **Logic**: Supply - demand and macro drivers are still weak, but short - term US high - frequency data is strong, and the inventory is low, so the oversupply trading is difficult to restart before significant inventory accumulation. There is a 80 - basis - point spread between the US real interest rate and the natural interest rate, and three 25 - basis - point interest rate cuts are highly likely. Geopolitical disturbances are increasing and may be the main driver in December. Short - term view is bullish, and mid - term, there are high - selling opportunities after a pulse - like upward movement [2][3]. - **Technical Analysis**: The daily - level shows a mid - term downward structure, and the hourly - level shows a short - term upward structure, but it should be seen as a wide - range oscillation. Today, it increased in price with increased positions, and the short - term support is at the 450 level. The short - term technical view is bullish, but it is recommended to wait and see in the hourly cycle [3]. Styrene - **Logic**: There is an unexpected inventory increase during the seasonal de - stocking period, and the inventory - swelling expectation still exists. Domestic refineries have strong maintenance expectations in the far - month, and South Korean device profits are low. The import in January is expected to be large. There are short - term fundamental contradictions but not significantly manifested, and there are large mid - term differences. It is necessary to pay attention to whether the oil - blending logic can continue and the import situation in the next two months. Be cautious about the potential pulse - like upward disturbance of crude oil due to geopolitical escalation [6]. - **Technical Analysis**: The hourly - level is in a short - term oscillation. Today, it increased in price with decreased positions, and the hourly - level structure is unclear, but there is an upward structure at the 15 - minute level. It is recommended to wait and see at the hourly - level and hold long positions at the 15 - minute level, with a take - profit reference at the 6510 level [6]. Rubber - **Logic**: There are no short - term contradictions. Tire demand is difficult to increase significantly, and it is hard to see a large - scale trend in the demand side. The supply side is in the peak tapping season in Southeast Asia, and the inventory in Qingdao is seasonally increasing, but the inventory - increasing rate is normal. The fundamental situation shows no upward or downward drivers, and it should be treated with an oscillation view [9]. - **Technical Analysis**: The daily - level shows a mid - term downward structure, and the hourly - level shows a short - term oscillation structure. Today, it decreased in price with decreased positions, and the hourly - level structure is unclear. It is recommended to wait and see in the hourly cycle [9]. Synthetic Rubber - **Logic**: Synthetic rubber is mainly driven by butadiene. The butadiene inventory has reached a 5 - year high in the past two weeks, and the price pressure of butadiene is large under the inventory - swelling expectation, so synthetic rubber has a downward - driving force around the cost side. Be cautious about the potential pulse - like upward disturbance of crude oil due to geopolitical escalation. Although the fundamental driver is downward, the valuation is low, so it is recommended to wait and see with an oscillation view [13]. - **Technical Analysis**: The daily - level shows a mid - term downward structure, and the hourly - level short - term oscillation structure is being tested. Today, it decreased in price with decreased positions, and the short - term downward structure has evolved into an oscillation. It is recommended to wait and see in the hourly cycle [13]. PX - **Logic**: The supply - demand of PX is neutral - bullish, but the current fundamental situation cannot support the upward drive. The main trading logic is the expected - based market. The US aromatics oil - blending logic has led to valuation repair since November. After the weakening of the oil - blending expectation last week, the cost - side crude oil and the relatively strong chemical fundamentals are likely to attract more chemical long - position funds. The market should maintain a bullish view [17]. - **Technical Analysis**: The hourly - level shows a short - term upward structure. Today, it increased in price with decreased positions, and the upward structure remains unchanged. The hourly - level standard support is at the 6700 level. It is recommended to hold long positions at the hourly - level, with a stop - loss reference at the 6700 level [17]. PTA - **Logic**: The polyester itself has little pressure, but the current fundamental situation cannot support the upward drive. The main trading logic is the expected - based market. The US aromatics oil - blending logic has led to valuation repair since November. After the weakening of the oil - blending expectation last week, the cost - side crude oil and the relatively strong chemical fundamentals are likely to attract more chemical long - position funds. The market should maintain a bullish view [20]. - **Technical Analysis**: The hourly - level shows a short - term upward structure. Today, it increased in price with increased positions, and the upward structure remains unchanged. The hourly - level support is at the 4620 level. It is recommended to hold long positions at the hourly - level, with a stop - loss reference at the 4620 level [20]. PP - **Logic**: PP still faces the pressure of olefin production capacity to be put into operation, with high - supply pressure continuing and weak downstream demand. The supply - demand drive is bearish, and attention should be paid to the cost - side crude oil drive [24]. - **Technical Analysis**: The hourly - level short - term downward structure may end. Today, it increased in price with decreased positions and broke through the short - term pressure at the 6400 level. The short - term downward trend may end. It is recommended to wait and see in the hourly cycle [24]. Methanol - **Logic**: Iranian maintenance is more than expected, and many methanol plants have shut down since last week. With the official start of winter gas restrictions and the accelerating cold in December, a full shutdown is highly likely. After the market over - traded the expectation of insufficient gas restrictions, the market has upward - correction space. High shipments and high inventories have been priced in, the port de - stocking rate is accelerating, the market may anticipate the low - shipment point after the full shutdown, and the withdrawal of crowded short positions on the previous market brings a large upward space [26]. - **Technical Analysis**: The daily - level shows a mid - term downward and short - term upward structure. Today, it increased in price with decreased positions, and the upward structure continues. The short - term support is at the 2100 level. It is recommended to hold long positions in the hourly cycle, with a take - profit reference at the 2100 level [27][29]. PVC - **Logic**: High supply and high inventory continue. With the collapse of domestic real - estate demand, there is no hope for demand improvement. The social inventory at a high level continues to increase, and there is no upward drive [31]. - **Technical Analysis**: The daily - level shows a mid - term downward structure, and the hourly - level short - term downward structure is being tested. Today, it oscillated within the day, and the short - term structure is facing a trend reversal. It is recommended to wait and see in the hourly cycle [31]. Ethylene Glycol - **Logic**: Many overseas Iranian MEG plants are under maintenance, but the domestic supply remains high with the resumption of maintenance and the addition of new production capacity. Inventory accumulation continues, and attention should be paid to the short - term geopolitical risk disturbance of crude oil [35]. - **Technical Analysis**: The daily - level shows a mid - term downward structure, and the hourly - level shows a downward structure. Today, it oscillated within the day, and the short - term pressure is at the 3920 level. It is recommended to wait and see in the single - side hourly cycle [35]. Plastic - **Logic**: The downstream demand recovers slowly, and the supply pressure from the upstream olefin production capacity put - into operation remains. The supply - demand situation is still weak and has not improved. Attention should be paid to the short - term geopolitical risk disturbance of crude oil [36]. - **Technical Analysis**: The daily - level shows a mid - term downward structure, and the hourly - level shows a downward structure. Today, it oscillated within the day, and the short - term pressure is at the 6825 level. It is recommended to wait and see in the hourly cycle [36]. Soda Ash - **Logic**: The high - supply and high - inventory pattern of soda ash continues, and the downstream glass production lines are reducing production, which suppresses the demand for soda ash. Although the fundamental downward drive remains, the cost - performance of holding short positions unilaterally is reduced [38]. - **Technical Analysis**: The hourly - level shows a downward structure. Today, it oscillated within the day, and the downward structure remains unchanged. The short - term pressure is at the 1195 level. It is recommended to hold the remaining short positions in the hourly cycle cautiously with a take - profit at the 1195 level [38]. Caustic Soda - **Logic**: With the new production capacity put into operation and the end of most plant maintenance, the high - supply pressure continues. The alumina industry's losses are expanding, and its production is decreasing, so the demand for caustic soda remains weak. There is no upward drive in the supply - demand situation [42]. - **Technical Analysis**: The hourly - level shows a downward structure. Today, it oscillated within the day, and the downward structure remains unchanged. The short - term pressure is at the 2260 level. It is recommended to wait and see in the hourly cycle [42].

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Report's Core Views - The main trading logic for polysilicon is the shortage of deliverable resources and significant capital - side disturbances. The spot price is stable, with inventory accumulation and weak overall demand in the entire industry chain [1]. - For lithium carbonate, short - term downstream lithium - battery demand remains high, with a decline in weekly production and a continuous de - stocking trend. The long - term demand is expected to be good, and the price is likely to rise. The near - month contracts are suppressed by seasonal demand weakness [3]. - Industrial silicon has a situation of weak supply and demand, high inventory, and balanced monthly supply and demand. The market is mainly affected by sentiment, and the price fluctuation may be limited [11]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Polysilicon - **Market Trend**: The polysilicon futures opened higher and rose rapidly in the morning, hitting a new high for the year. The main 2601 contract closed at 57705 yuan/ton, up 2.27% from the previous trading day [1]. - **Core Logic**: After the concentrated cancellation of polysilicon warehouse receipts at the end of November, the quantity of warehouse receipts decreased significantly. The current trading logic focuses on the shortage of deliverable resources and large capital - side disturbances. The spot price is stable, with inventory accumulation and weak demand in the industry chain [1]. - **Technical Analysis**: The overall position of polysilicon futures increased, and it is still controlled by bulls. There was an intervention opportunity at 9:05 according to the "First K Breakthrough Method" with volume increase. The 5 - minute cycle is a red line, green belt, and green ladder, and the 2 - hour cycle is a strong red ladder line. The multi - empty dividing water level is 53315 yuan/ton [1]. - **Strategy Suggestion**: Since it is at the upper edge of the oscillation range and the 2601 contract hit a new high for the year, it is recommended to wait and see. You can refer to the Band Winner indicator during the 8:30 morning live broadcast [2]. Lithium Carbonate - **Market Trend**: The lithium carbonate futures opened higher and then fell back. The 2605 contract closed at 96940 yuan/ton, up 0.54% from the previous trading day [3]. - **Core Logic**: In the short term, downstream lithium - battery demand remains high, production decreased this week, and inventory continued to decline. The long - term demand is expected to be good, and the price is likely to rise. The near - month contracts are suppressed by seasonal demand weakness, resulting in a structure of lower near - term prices and higher far - term prices [3]. - **Technical Analysis**: The overall position of lithium carbonate futures changed little. The 5 - minute cycle is a red line, blue belt, and red ladder, still in the oscillation range. The 2 - hour cycle is a strong red ladder line. The multi - empty dividing water level is 92040 yuan/ton [7]. - **Strategy Suggestion**: Under the background of "strong reality and strong expectation", it is recommended to go long on dips. You can refer to the Band Winner indicator during the 8:30 morning live broadcast [7]. Industrial Silicon - **Market Trend**: The industrial silicon futures fluctuated in a narrow range. The main 2601 contract closed at 9145 yuan/ton, up 0.16% from the previous trading day [11]. - **Core Logic**: The supply and demand of industrial silicon are both weak, and the inventory is high. The monthly supply and demand are generally balanced, and the market is mainly affected by sentiment. The price fluctuation may be limited. Attention should be paid to the possible expansion of production cuts during the dry season in Yunnan in December and the impact of downstream enterprise policies on demand [11]. - **Technical Analysis**: The overall position of industrial silicon futures decreased significantly. The 5 - minute cycle has changed to a red line, blue belt, and green ladder, and the 2 - hour cycle is a strong red ladder line. The multi - empty dividing water level is 8940 yuan/ton [11]. - **Strategy Suggestion**: Since it is mainly affected by policies and news, it is recommended to wait and see and pay attention to periodic sentiment disturbances. You can refer to the Band Winner indicator during the 8:30 morning live broadcast [11].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided 2. Core View of the Report - The egg near - month contract has fallen sharply, the cotton has continued to rise, and the palm oil has continued to rise. The soybean meal has oscillated and adjusted, the peanut has adjusted at a high level, the pig has fluctuated weakly, the jujube has run weakly at a low level, the sugar has rebounded after a decline, and the apple has run strongly [1] 3. Summary by Variety Eggs - The egg主力 2601 contract has fallen sharply due to high production capacity. The egg - laying hen inventory is high, with about 1.352 billion in - production egg - laying hens in November. The futures price has fallen after a high - level rebound. The strategy is to close long positions and go short lightly on rallies, with a resistance level of 3220 for the egg 2601 contract [2] Cotton - The cotton主力 2601 contract has continued to rise supported by strong demand. As of November 27, the national new cotton delivery rate is 98.5% (up 1 percentage point year - on - year), and the sales rate is 33.2% (up 18.9 percentage points year - on - year). The strategy is to go long on dips [3] Soybean Meal - The soybean meal主力 2601 contract has oscillated and declined slightly. High inventory restricts the rebound space, but rising import costs support the price. The strategy is short - term trading [5] Peanuts - The peanut主力 2601 contract has adjusted at a high level for technical correction. High - quality peanuts in the Northeast and low farmer selling sentiment support the price. The strategy is to hold long positions [8] Pigs - The pig主力 2601 contract has fluctuated weakly. High inventory and large planned slaughter in November lead to abundant supply. The strategy is short - term trading [9][11] Palm Oil - The Dalian palm oil主力 2601 contract has continued to rise. Floods in Southeast Asia and the seasonal production - reduction season support the price. The strategy is to go long lightly [12] Jujubes - The jujube主力 2601 contract has run weakly at a low level. The supply is abundant with high inventory. The strategy is short - term trading [14] Sugar - The Zhengzhou sugar主力 2601 contract has rebounded after a decline. Increased supply from new sugar mills is offset by high production costs and expected better consumption. The strategy is short - term long - biased trading [16] Apples - The apple主力 2601 contract has run strongly. Low inventory and expected better demand during holidays support the price. The strategy is to hold long positions [20]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core View of the Report The agricultural products sector mostly declined on Friday. Palm oil continued to fall, and its future price is expected to be weak. Red dates hit a new low, and there is room for further decline. Live pigs and eggs are still in a downward trend, and there is pressure for continued decline. Other varieties such as peanuts, sugar, and soybeans also showed different degrees of decline, while apples maintained a high - level narrow - range fluctuation, and cotton had a limited rebound [1]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs 3.1 Agricultural Products Sector Overview - Most agricultural products in the sector declined on Friday. Palm oil was pressured by rising inventory expectations, red dates faced supply pressure, and live pigs and eggs had high inventories and weak demand [1]. 3.2 Variety Strategy Tracking 3.2.1 Palm Oil - Dalian palm oil and soybean oil main 2601 contracts continued to fall. In November, Malaysian palm oil exports decreased while production increased, and the US bio - fuel plan might bring a negative impact. The main contract broke through the lower limit of the previous sideways range, and the strategy is to short with a light position [2]. 3.2.2 Red Dates - The main 2601 contract of red dates fell sharply to a new low. New jujube listing and high inventory of old jujubes led to large supply pressure, and the contract broke through the support level. The strategy is to short with a light position [3]. 3.2.3 Eggs - The main 2601 contract of eggs fell back into a downward trend. High egg - laying hen inventory, slow capacity reduction, and weak demand led to increased inventory. The strategy is to short with a light position [5]. 3.2.4 Peanuts - The main 2601 contract of peanuts rose first and then fell. The supply is expected to increase after the busy farming season, and the demand is weak. The contract is in a weak state, and the strategy is to short with a light position [8]. 3.2.5 Sugar - The main 2601 contract of Zhengzhou sugar continued to fall to a new low. Global sugar supply is loose, and domestic sugar imports are high. The new sugar listing increased supply, and the strategy is to short with a light position [9][11]. 3.2.6 Live Pigs - The main 2601 contract of live pigs continued to decline. High supply and weak demand led to price pressure. The contract is in a downward trend, and the strategy is to hold short positions with a light position [12][16]. 3.2.7 Soybean Meal - The main 2601 contract of soybean meal expanded its decline. High inventory of soybean meal due to sufficient soybean imports and high - pressure oil - mill operation led to price decline. The strategy is to short with a light position [18]. 3.2.8 Apples - The main 2601 contract of apples fluctuated narrowly at a high level. Apple inventory is at a relatively low level in recent years, and the demand from foreign trade channels is good. The contract is in an upward trend, and the strategy is to hold long positions [19]. 3.2.9 Cotton - The main 2601 contract of cotton fluctuated narrowly with limited rebound. Cotton supply pressure is increasing, and the textile industry is in a off - season. The contract is restricted by the medium - term moving average, and the strategy is short - term trading [22].

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The crude oil market is in a state of oscillation, lacking clear short - term drivers. The geopolitical factor, especially the situation in the Caribbean and potential US actions against Venezuela, may become the short - term main line [1][3]. - The strong performance of refined oil products in Europe and the US, with the strengthening of gasoline and diesel cracking spreads, has led to the emergence of the blending oil logic, which may drive the upward movement of aromatic hydrocarbon products such as styrene, pure benzene, and polyester [1]. - Some energy - chemical products are running independently of crude oil. For example, methanol is still under pressure from high inventory, but there is a mid - term long - making logic [1]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs (1) Crude Oil - **Logic**: The recent large - scale fluctuations in crude oil were caused by the continuous strengthening of refined oil products in Europe and the US and the weakening expectations in the EIA monthly report. Currently, the short - term drivers have not changed significantly. Although the inventory is increasing, the market reaction is flat. The supply shortage of gasoline and diesel may gradually improve. The geopolitical situation in the Caribbean is heating up, and the potential US action against Venezuela has not been priced in the market [3]. - **Technical Analysis**: The daily - level shows a mid - term downward structure, and the hourly - level shows a short - term oscillation structure. The strategy is to wait and see in the hourly cycle [3]. (2) Styrene - **Logic**: The recent strong performance of styrene is due to the improvement of short - term supply - demand after device maintenance and the blending oil logic driven by the strong performance of refined oil products in Europe and the US. However, there is a mid - term oversupply and seasonal inventory accumulation problem [5][8]. - **Technical Analysis**: The hourly - level shows a short - term upward structure. The strategy is to wait and see in the hourly level and look for opportunities to cover short positions after the daily - level rebound [8]. (3) Rubber - **Logic**: The short - term contradiction of rubber is not prominent. The seasonal inventory accumulation in the peak season has just started, and the focus is on the subsequent inventory accumulation rate [10]. - **Technical Analysis**: The daily - level shows a mid - term downward structure, and the hourly - level shows a short - term upward structure. The strategy is to hold long positions in the hourly cycle with a stop - loss at 15200 [10]. (4) Synthetic Rubber - **Logic**: The contradiction of synthetic rubber is not significant. The focus is on the driving force from the cost side of butadiene, which also faces the problem of potential inventory swelling [13]. - **Technical Analysis**: The daily - level shows a mid - term downward structure, and the hourly - level shows a short - term upward structure. The strategy is to wait and see in the hourly cycle [13]. (5) PX - **Logic**: The contradiction in the polyester industry is not large. After the hype of production reduction news fades, the focus is on whether the blending oil logic can drive the upward movement. Also, pay attention to the geopolitical risks in the Caribbean [17]. - **Technical Analysis**: The hourly - level shows a short - term upward structure. The strategy is to hold long positions in the hourly level with a stop - profit at 6745 [17]. (6) PTA - **Logic**: Similar to PX, the focus is on the blending oil logic and geopolitical risks in the Caribbean after the weakening of production reduction expectations [20]. - **Technical Analysis**: The hourly - level shows a short - term upward structure. The strategy is to hold long positions in the hourly level with a stop - profit at 4655 [20]. (7) PP - **Logic**: High supply pressure continues due to the commissioning of Guangxi Petrochemical and the increase in PP operation rate, and downstream demand is weak. The focus is on the cost - side driving force of crude oil [24]. - **Technical Analysis**: The hourly - level shows a short - term downward structure. The strategy is to wait and see in the hourly cycle [24]. (8) Methanol - **Logic**: The large - scale shutdown of Iranian devices has not occurred, and the inventory in ports is still at a high level, which suppresses the market. However, the domestic supply - demand structure has improved. The long - making opportunity depends on the implementation of Iranian gas restrictions and the market breaking through the pressure level. The geopolitical factor may also provide a long - making opportunity [26][28]. - **Technical Analysis**: The daily - level and short - term show a downward structure. The strategy is to hold short positions in the hourly cycle with a stop - profit at 2040 or take the initiative to stop profit. Try to go long after the short - term structure reverses [28]. (9) PVC - **Logic**: High supply and high inventory continue, and the demand from the real - estate industry is weak, so there is no upward driving force [30]. - **Technical Analysis**: The daily - level shows a mid - term downward structure, and the hourly - level shows a short - term downward structure. The strategy is to hold short positions in the hourly cycle [32]. (10) Ethylene Glycol - **Logic**: Supply is at a high level, and the supply pressure increases with new capacity. Pay attention to short - term geopolitical risks in crude oil [33]. - **Technical Analysis**: The daily - level and hourly - level show a downward structure. The strategy is to wait and see in the hourly cycle [33]. (11) Plastic - **Logic**: There is a pattern of high supply, weak demand, and inventory accumulation. Pay attention to short - term geopolitical risks in crude oil [36]. - **Technical Analysis**: The daily - level shows a mid - term downward structure, and the hourly - level shows an oscillation structure. The strategy is to wait and see in the hourly cycle [36]. (12) Soda Ash - **Logic**: The pattern of high supply and high inventory continues, and the fundamental downward driving force remains unchanged [38]. - **Technical Analysis**: The hourly - level shows a downward structure. The strategy is to hold the remaining short positions in the hourly cycle with a stop - profit at 1195 [41]. (13) Caustic Soda - **Logic**: High supply pressure persists due to new capacity and high operation rate, and demand is weak. There is no upward driving force in supply - demand [42]. - **Technical Analysis**: The hourly - level shows a downward structure. The strategy is to wait and see in the hourly cycle [42].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core View of the Report The agricultural product sector shows mixed trends. Palm oil and soybean oil have declined significantly, while eggs have rebounded. Other products such as peanuts, sugar, and hogs continue to fall, apples are strong, dates fluctuate narrowly at low levels, and cotton has limited rebounds and fluctuates at low levels [1]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs 3.1 Agricultural Product Sector Overview - Palm oil and soybean oil have declined sharply due to the possible delay of the US government's plan to restrict the import of raw materials for bio - fuel production, which pushed down CBOT soybean oil and led to the decline of palm oil. The trend of oils has weakened [1]. - Eggs have rebounded at low levels, but the weak supply - demand pattern has not been reversed, so the rebound space may be limited [1]. - Soybean meal has declined due to sufficient imported soybeans, high crushing volume, and rising inventory, and the weakness may continue [1]. 3.2 Variety Strategy Tracking 3.2.1 Palm Oil - The main 2601 contracts of Dalian palm oil and soybean oil have fallen sharply, affected by the decline of US soybean oil and crude oil. The possible delay of the US government's plan to restrict bio - fuel raw material imports weakened the previous positive proposal of the US Environmental Protection Agency, and the increase in palm oil production and decline in exports in Malaysia in the first half of November also pressured the price [2]. - The main 2601 contract of palm oil failed to break through, fell back to the previous consolidation range, and below the moving - average system. The strategy is to close long positions and conduct short - term trading [2]. 3.2.2 Eggs - The main 2601 contract of eggs has rebounded significantly at low levels, boosted by technical buying. The egg - laying hen inventory is still high, the elimination of old hens continues but the speed slows down, and the demand lacks festival stimulation [3]. - The main 2601 contract of eggs has rebounded from the low level, recovered the decline since the beginning of this week, and stood above the 5 - day moving average. The strategy is to close short positions and conduct short - term trading [3]. 3.2.3 Peanuts - The main 2601 contract of peanuts continued to fall after the sharp decline the previous day. The effective supply in the producing areas has not been fully released, and the demand is sluggish [6]. - The main 2601 contract of peanuts continues the downward trend, and the strategy is to short with a light position [6]. 3.2.4 Sugar - The main 2601 contract of Zhengzhou sugar continued to fall to a new low. Globally, the sugar production in Brazil is strong, and the production in the Northern Hemisphere is also good. In China, the import volume in October was 750,000 tons, a year - on - year increase of 39%, and the cumulative import volume from January to October was 3.9 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 14%. The seasonal supply increase also pressured the price [7][9]. - The main 2601 contract of Zhengzhou sugar continues to fall to a new low, and the technical situation is weak. The strategy is to continue shorting with a light position [9]. 3.2.5 Hogs - The main 2601 contract of hogs continued to decline after breaking through the support level. The supply pressure is large as the inventory of breeding sows is still high, and the large - scale pig enterprises plan to have a high slaughter volume in November. The demand in the traditional peak season is insufficient [10]. - The main 2601 contract of hogs continues the downward trend, hitting a new low of 11,355. The strategy is to continue holding short positions with a light position [10]. 3.2.6 Soybean Meal - The main 2601 contract of soybean meal broke below the 20 - day moving average. The imported soybeans are sufficient, the oil mills have high crushing and operating rates, and the soybean meal inventory is close to one million tons. The downstream feed enterprises have general procurement [12]. - The main 2601 contract of soybean meal has entered a downward trend, and the strategy is to short with a light position [12]. 3.2.7 Apples - The main 2601 contract of apples is strong. The apple storage work in Shandong and Shaanxi has basically ended, and the national cold - storage inventory is 7.7316 million tons as of November 19, still at a relatively low level in recent years. The demand may improve at the end of the year [15]. - The main 2601 contract of apples has risen at a high level and re - stood above the moving - average system. The strategy is to hold long positions [15]. 3.2.8 Dates - The main 2601 contract of dates fluctuates narrowly at low levels. The Xinjiang producing area adheres to the principle of high - quality and high - price, but most enterprises are reluctant to purchase on a large scale. The old - date inventory is slowly digested, and the new - date listing and high old - date inventory limit the rebound space [16]. - The main 2601 contract of dates has limited rebounds. The strategy is to conduct short - term short - biased trading and pay attention to whether it can break through the resistance of the 10 - day moving average [18]. 3.2.9 Cotton - The main 2601 contract of cotton has limited rebounds and fluctuates at low levels. The cotton picking in Xinjiang is nearly finished, the new - cotton processing volume has increased significantly year - on - year, and the commercial inventory has been growing. The textile industry is in the off - season, and the new orders are limited [19]. - The main 2601 contract of cotton has limited rebounds and fluctuates at low levels. The strategy is to conduct short - term trading and pay attention to whether it can overcome the resistance of the medium - term moving average [19].

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Report's Core View - The lithium carbonate market is in a "strong reality, strong expectation" situation, with demand - driven growth and short - term price fluctuations mainly due to capital. Industrial silicon and polycrystalline silicon markets are affected by factors such as commodity price declines and the weakening of previous positive news, with both facing supply - demand imbalances and high inventories [1][8][10]. Summary by Related Catalogs Lithium Carbonate - **Market Trend**: The lithium carbonate futures contract 2601 dropped 0.32% to 98,980 yuan/ton compared to the previous trading day's closing price, with the total open interest exceeding one million lots [1]. - **Core Logic**: The core driver is demand expectation. The demand for lithium carbonate in power batteries and energy storage is strong. There is a rush to install power cells in the new energy vehicle market due to the phased - out of new energy vehicle purchase tax exemption policies, and the penetration rate of new energy vehicles is expected to reach about 60% from November to December. The energy - storage battery installation is expected to grow by over 40% in 2026. The weekly inventory reduction also confirms strong demand. Recently, capital has become the main driver of price [1]. - **Technical Analysis**: The overall open interest of lithium carbonate futures declined. The 2601 contract was still under bullish control, but there was a large - scale reduction of positions in the afternoon, causing the price to correct. The 5 - minute cycle is expected to fluctuate in the short term, while the 2 - hour cycle remains bullish, with the long - short dividing line at 87,220 yuan/ton [1]. - **Strategy Suggestion**: In the context of "strong reality, strong expectation", the operation strategy is to go long on dips. Avoid contrarian trading when the futures price corrects [2]. Industrial Silicon - **Market Trend**: The industrial silicon futures contract 2601 dropped 3.35% to 9,075 yuan/ton compared to the previous trading day's closing price [8]. - **Core Logic**: The impact of the news of silicone joint price - support on industrial silicon futures has gradually faded. The overall commodity decline and the weak fundamental situation of industrial silicon, including weak supply - demand and high inventory, have led to continued pressure on the short - term market [8]. - **Technical Analysis**: The overall open interest of industrial silicon futures decreased. The 2601 contract continued to decline with position reduction, indicating bullish control. There was an entry opportunity using the "Three - Line Resonance Method" at 10:35, with a profit - loss ratio of 1:1 to less than 1:2. The 5 - minute cycle shows a short - term weak trend, while the 2 - hour cycle remains bullish, with the long - short dividing line at 8,945 yuan/ton [8]. - **Strategy Suggestion**: Due to the large price fluctuations affected by policies and news, it is recommended to wait and see. Intraday operations can refer to the 8:30 morning live - broadcast and the Band Winner indicator [8]. - **Concerns**: The planned 30% production reduction of silicone starting from December 1st, if implemented successfully, will be a significant negative factor for industrial silicon. There are also more winter - related disturbing factors such as environmental protection production restrictions [8]. Polycrystalline Silicon - **Market Trend**: The polycrystalline silicon futures contract 2601 dropped 3.98% to 52,450 yuan/ton compared to the previous trading day's closing price [10]. - **Core Logic**: The positive impact of industrial silicon on polycrystalline silicon yesterday has faded, and combined with the overall commodity decline, polycrystalline silicon has declined. The supply - demand situation of polycrystalline silicon has not changed much, with weak supply - demand and lack of driving forces. The production in November is expected to be 127,000 tons, and the inventory has slightly increased recently [10][13]. - **Technical Analysis**: The overall open interest of polycrystalline silicon futures slightly increased. The 2601 contract saw bulls taking profits in the morning, and then it turned to bearish control with a large - scale increase in positions in the afternoon. There was an entry opportunity using the "First K Breakthrough Method" at 13:35, with a profit - loss ratio of 1:2. The 5 - minute cycle shows a weak trend, while the 2 - hour cycle remains bullish, with the long - short dividing line at 52,210 yuan/ton [13]. - **Strategy Suggestion**: Due to large price fluctuations affected by policies and news and still being in the oscillation range in the 2 - hour cycle, it is recommended to wait and see. Intraday operations can refer to the 8:30 morning live - broadcast and the Band Winner indicator [13].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided 2. Core View of the Report - Crude oil is still in a state of waiting for a change in one of the three drivers (macro, supply - demand, and geopolitics) to form a short - term logic. Geopolitical drivers may become the short - term main line, especially the situation in the Caribbean [1][3]. - The strength of refined oil products in Europe and the United States has led to the emergence of the blending oil logic, which may have a positive impact on aromatic hydrocarbon products such as styrene, pure benzene, and polyester [1]. - Different energy and chemical products have different supply - demand situations and price trends, and corresponding trading strategies are proposed based on technical analysis [5][8][10] 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Crude Oil - **Logic**: The sharp fluctuations last week were due to the strength of refined oil products in Europe and the United States and the weakening expectations in the EIA monthly report. Currently, the short - term drivers have not changed significantly. The supply - demand situation may gradually improve, but geopolitical risks in the Caribbean are worthy of attention. Wait for a high - shorting opportunity after the event [3]. - **Technical Analysis**: The daily - level is in a medium - term downward structure, and the hourly - level is in a short - term oscillating structure. Maintain an oscillating view, and the strategy is to wait and see on the hourly cycle [3]. Styrene - **Logic**: The recent strength is due to short - term supply - demand improvement from device maintenance and the blending oil logic. In the medium - term, there is a risk of over - supply and seasonal inventory accumulation. Pay attention to the geopolitical situation in the Caribbean [5][8]. - **Technical Analysis**: The hourly - level is in a short - term upward structure. Wait and see on the hourly level, and look for opportunities to cover short positions after the daily - level rebound [8]. Rubber - **Logic**: The short - term contradiction is not prominent. The seasonal inventory accumulation in the peak season has just started. Pay attention to the inventory accumulation rate [10]. - **Technical Analysis**: The daily - level is in a medium - term downward structure, and the hourly - level is in a short - term upward structure. Hold long positions on the hourly cycle, with a stop - loss reference of 15,200 [10]. Synthetic Rubber - **Logic**: Focus on the cost - end butadiene drive. Butadiene has a high supply and may face inventory pressure in the medium - term [13]. - **Technical Analysis**: The daily - level is in a medium - term downward structure, and the hourly - level is in a short - term upward structure. Wait and see on the hourly cycle [13]. PX - **Logic**: Pay attention to whether the blending oil logic can drive the price up after the hype of polyester industry chain production cuts fades. Also, focus on geopolitical risks in the Caribbean [17]. - **Technical Analysis**: The hourly - level is in a short - term upward structure. Hold long positions on the hourly level, with a take - profit reference of 6,745 [17]. PTA - **Logic**: Similar to PX, pay attention to the blending oil logic and Caribbean geopolitical risks [20]. - **Technical Analysis**: The hourly - level is in a short - term upward structure. Hold long positions on the hourly level, with a take - profit reference of 4,655 [20]. PP - **Logic**: High supply pressure continues, and downstream demand is weak. Pay attention to the cost - end crude oil drive [24]. - **Technical Analysis**: The hourly - level is in a short - term downward structure. Wait and see on the hourly cycle [24]. Methanol - **Logic**: High port inventory suppresses the price, but the domestic supply - demand structure is improving. Wait for a long - position opportunity after the Iranian gas restriction and the price breaks through the pressure level. Also, pay attention to Caribbean geopolitical risks [26][28]. - **Technical Analysis**: The daily - level and short - term are in a downward structure. Hold short positions on the hourly cycle with a take - profit of 2,040, or take the initiative to stop the profit. Look for long - position opportunities after the price breaks through 2,040 [28]. PVC - **Logic**: High supply and high inventory continue, and there is no hope for demand. It is difficult to have an upward drive [30]. - **Technical Analysis**: The daily - level is in a medium - term downward structure, and the hourly - level is in a short - term downward structure. Hold short positions on the hourly cycle [32]. Ethylene Glycol - **Logic**: High supply pressure increases with new capacity. Be vigilant against short - term geopolitical risks in crude oil [33]. - **Technical Analysis**: The daily - level is in a medium - term downward structure, and the hourly - level is in a downward structure. Wait and see on the hourly cycle [33]. Plastic - **Logic**: High supply and weak demand lead to inventory accumulation. Be vigilant against short - term geopolitical risks in crude oil [36]. - **Technical Analysis**: The daily - level is in a medium - term downward structure, and the hourly - level is in an oscillating structure. Wait and see on the hourly cycle [36]. Soda Ash - **Logic**: The high - supply and high - inventory pattern continues, and the downward drive remains [38]. - **Technical Analysis**: The hourly - level is in a downward structure. Hold the remaining short positions on the hourly cycle with a stop - profit at 1,245 [41]. Caustic Soda - **Logic**: High supply pressure and weak demand. There is no upward drive in supply - demand [43]. - **Technical Analysis**: The hourly - level is in a downward structure. Wait and see on the hourly cycle [43].