Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. Core Views - The lithium carbonate market is currently in a situation of "strong reality, strong expectation", and the operation should still focus on buying on dips. The polysilicon market may continue to be weak, and the industrial silicon market is expected to continue to fluctuate in the short - term [1][3][13] Summary by Related Catalogs Carbonate Lithium - **Market Trend**: The lithium carbonate futures had a certain degree of correction today. The main 2605 contract fell 3.02% compared with the previous trading day's closing price, reporting 161,940 yuan/ton [1] - **Core Logic**: The exchange's regulatory intervention last night cooled the market sentiment, and long - position funds took profits. The recent sharp rise was due to the "rush to export" logic of battery enterprises before the VAT export tax rebate rate of battery products was lowered in April, and the high prosperity of terminal demand [1] - **Technical Analysis**: From the perspective of overall capital sentiment, it is still controlled by bulls, but the recent sharp decline in positions needs to be vigilant against the risk of trampling caused by the concentrated realization of long - position profit - taking. The 5 - minute level cycle of the current lithium carbonate main 2605 contract is a green line, blue ribbon, and green ladder, and the overnight 2 - hour level cycle is still a red ladder line, with the long - short dividing water level at 142,300 yuan/ton [1] - **Strategy Suggestion**: In the context of "strong reality, strong expectation", operate by buying on dips. Avoid short - selling at the top or chasing high directly. Find good entry positions based on the "First K Breakthrough Method" or "Three - Line Resonance Method" intraday [1] - **Follow - up Focus**: The actual progress of battery exports in the first quarter, the recovery of new energy vehicle sales data after subsidy extension, and the actual impact of geopolitical situation on lithium ore supply [2][6] Polysilicon - **Market Trend**: The polysilicon futures continued the downward trend today. The main 2605 contract fell 0.12% compared with the previous trading day's closing price, reporting 48,945 yuan/ton [3] - **Core Logic**: After the market supervision department interviewed the photovoltaic association and leading enterprises, the silicon material price will return to cost game. Currently, the supply and demand of polysilicon are both weak, and the industry inventory is at a three - year high, so the futures price may continue to be under pressure [3] - **Technical Analysis**: The position of polysilicon futures continued to decline. The 5 - minute level cycle of the current polysilicon 2605 contract is a red line, red ribbon, and red ladder, and the overnight 2 - hour level cycle is a green ladder line, with the long - short dividing water level at 58,300 yuan/ton [7] - **Strategy Suggestion**: Polysilicon may continue to be weak [8] - **Follow - up Focus**: The follow - up policy direction of "anti - involution" [9] Industrial Silicon - **Market Trend**: The industrial silicon futures fluctuated strongly today. The 2605 contract rose 1.39% compared with the previous trading day's closing price, reporting 8,755 yuan/ton [10] - **Core Logic**: Today's fluctuating rise was a short - covering rally from the perspective of capital sentiment, still controlled by bears. Fundamentally, the supply and demand of industrial silicon are both weak, downstream procurement is sluggish, and inventory is at a three - year high, lacking upward drive but with certain cost support. There is no substantial positive or negative impact to drive the futures price to break through the current fluctuation range, so it is expected to continue to fluctuate in the short - term [13] - **Technical Analysis**: The overall position of industrial silicon futures continued to decline. The 5 - minute level cycle of the current industrial silicon 2605 contract is a green line, red ribbon, and red ladder, and the overnight 2 - hour level cycle is a green ladder line, with the long - short dividing water level at 8,980 yuan/ton [13] - **Strategy Suggestion**: Currently in the middle of the fluctuation range, it is recommended to short on rebounds. In the long - term, pay attention to the transmission effect of polysilicon's return to cost pricing on industrial silicon. Intraday operations can refer to the Band Winner indicator in the 8:30 morning live broadcast [13] - **Follow - up Focus**: The follow - up policy direction of "anti - involution" [14]

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core View of the Report The agricultural product sector shows diverse trends. Pig prices break through and rise, cotton continues to climb, palm oil fluctuates at a high level, soybean meal oscillates downward, sugar and eggs oscillate upward, and the prices of different varieties are affected by various factors such as supply and demand, policies, and technical indicators [1]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs 3.1 Agricultural Product Sector Overview - Pig prices break through and rise above the 12,000 mark, with reduced supply from breeders and increased pre - year - end stocking demand on the demand side, and the futures price may gradually open up an upward space [1]. - Cotton prices continue to rise, supported by the expected decline in cotton planting in Xinjiang this year and strong downstream demand [1]. 3.2 Variety Strategy Tracking - **Pig**: The main 2603 contract breaks through and rises, boosted by the peak demand season. After the peak slaughter in December 2025, the slaughter plan of large - scale pig enterprises in January decreases, and the supply of suitable - weight pigs decreases. The demand for southern curing and pre - Spring Festival demand support the price. The price has a 6.8% increase from late December to early January. Technically, it turns strong, and the strategy is to go long with a light position on dips, with support at 11,800 - 11,880 [2]. - **Palm Oil**: The main 2605 contract first rises and then falls, narrowing the increase. Indonesia cancels the B50 plan, which has a bearish impact. However, Malaysia's palm oil exports are strong, and production decreases, which is conducive to inventory reduction. Indonesia will raise the export tax on crude palm oil, which may support the price. Technically, it remains strong, and the strategy is to go long with a light position on dips, with support at 8,680 - 8,700 [3]. - **Soybean Meal**: The main 2605 contract oscillates downward, pressured by abundant domestic supply. The USDA report is bearish, and domestic soybean imports are large, with high inventory, suppressing the price. Technically, it is weak, and the strategy is short - term trading [5]. - **Cotton**: The main 2605 contract continues to oscillate upward, supported by strong downstream demand. The USDA report is bullish, and the expected decline in Xinjiang's cotton planting area in 2026 and strong demand support the price. Technically, it stabilizes, and the strategy is to go long with a light position, with support at 14,620 - 14,700 [7]. - **Sugar**: The main 2605 contract oscillates upward, recovering the previous day's decline. The expected increase in pre - year - end consumption supports the price. Although the supply is sufficient, the demand is boosted by Spring Festival stocking. Technically, it turns strong, and the strategy is to go long with a light position on dips, with support at 5,270 - 5,280 [9]. - **Egg**: The main 2603 contract oscillates and rebounds after two - day adjustment. The high inventory of laying hens and the start of Spring Festival stocking limit the downside space. Technically, it oscillates, and the strategy is short - term trading [11].

1. Industry Investment Rating No investment rating information is provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints - The palm oil price is expected to be strong in the future due to the decline in Malaysian palm oil production and potential export tariff hikes in Indonesia [1][2]. - The cotton price adjustment space is limited as the expected reduction in planting area strengthens supply contraction expectations and downstream demand is resilient [1][5]. - The prices of various agricultural products show different trends, and corresponding trading strategies are proposed for each variety. 3. Summary by Variety Palm Oil - The palm oil main 2605 contract is rising steadily. Malaysian palm oil production decreased by 4.64% month - on - month to 1.84 million tons in December, and concerns about Indonesian supply are rising. Technically, it is strong. The strategy is to go long on dips with light positions, with support at 8600 - 8620 [2]. Two - Meal (Rapeseed Meal and Soybean Meal) - The rapeseed meal main 2605 contract continues to fall due to possible improvement in China - Canada economic and trade relations and weak demand in the aquaculture off - season. Technically, it is weak, and the strategy is to go short on resistance levels. The soybean meal is supported by strong spot prices and rigid demand from breeding enterprises, and the 2605 contract's market may fluctuate [3]. Cotton - The cotton main 2605 contract is still adjusting to digest long - profit taking pressure. The expected reduction in planting area in Xinjiang strengthens supply contraction, and downstream demand is strong. The main trend of the upward movement remains unchanged. The strategy is to go long after the price stabilizes on dips [5]. Live Pigs - The live pig main 2603 contract is rising in an oscillatory manner. The出栏 pressure in January has decreased, and demand is expected to pick up. Technically, it is in an upward trend. The strategy is to go long on dips with light positions, with support at 11715 - 11750 [7]. Sugar - The Zhengzhou sugar main 2605 contract is rising in an oscillatory manner, supported by the expected consumption recovery at the end of the year. Sugar production in Guangxi has decreased year - on - year, and demand is expected to pick up. Technically, it is strong. The strategy is to go long with light positions [10]. Eggs - The egg main 2603 contract is rising steadily, boosted by the pre - Spring Festival demand peak. The production capacity is gradually decreasing, and market trading is active. Technically, it is strong. The strategy is to go long on dips with light positions, with support at 3010 - 3030 [11][13].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant information provided. 2. Core Views of the Report - The lithium carbonate market is in a situation of "strong reality, strong expectation", and the operation should still be mainly to go long on dips [1]. - The polysilicon market may continue to be weak, and attention should be paid to the support level at 50,000 yuan [7]. - The industrial silicon market is expected to remain under pressure, and it is currently oscillating in the range of 8,500 - 9,000 yuan [10][12]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs 3.1 Lithium Carbonate - **Market Trend**: The lithium carbonate futures fluctuated widely today. The main 2605 contract fell 1.09% from the previous trading day's closing price, reporting 143,420 yuan/ton [1]. - **Core Logic**: The recent trading logic mainly includes the confirmed price increase of downstream lithium iron phosphate and the smooth price transmission downstream, as well as the concerns about the stability of South American lithium resource supply due to the sudden change in the geopolitical situation in Venezuela. Today's weekly production and inventory data showed an increase of 115 tons in production and a stockpile of 337 tons. However, there is a phenomenon of traders locking in inventory, and the inventories of smelters and downstream are at the lowest levels of the year, with the smelter inventory reaching a three - year low [1]. - **Technical Analysis**: From the perspective of overall capital sentiment, the lithium carbonate futures are still controlled by bulls. However, the position has been declining recently, and the risk of bulls taking profits and closing positions should be vigilant. The 5 - minute cycle of the main 2605 contract is a red line, blue ribbon, and red ladder. The overnight 2 - hour cycle is still a strong red ladder line, and the long - short dividing water level is 121,580 yuan/ton [1]. - **Strategy Suggestion**: In the context of "strong reality, strong expectation", the operation should still be mainly to go long on dips. Do not chase the high directly. Find good entry positions according to the "First K Breakthrough Method" or "Three - Line Resonance Method" intraday, and specific operations can be heard in the 8:30 morning live broadcast [1]. - **Follow - up Focus**: Follow - up attention should be paid to whether the exchange supervision intervenes, the recovery of new energy vehicle sales data after the subsidy continuation, and the actual impact of the geopolitical situation on lithium ore supply [2][3]. 3.2 Polysilicon - **Market Trend**: The polysilicon futures continued to decline today. The main 2605 contract fell 4.31% from the previous trading day's closing price, reporting 51,300 yuan/ton [5]. - **Core Logic**: It was confirmed today that the State Administration for Market Regulation interviewed the China Photovoltaic Industry Association and leading enterprises on January 6, requiring them not to make agreements on production capacity, capacity utilization, production and sales volume, and sales price, etc. Previously, the polysilicon futures were trading in a high - level range between 55,000 and 60,000 yuan. Now, the silicon material price can no longer be maintained at a high level through cooperation and will return to cost competition. Leading enterprises may squeeze out small enterprises by reducing costs through technology, and the price may continue to fall [5][7]. - **Technical Analysis**: The position of polysilicon futures still declined significantly today. The 5 - minute cycle of the 2605 contract is a green line, green ribbon, and green ladder, and the overnight 2 - hour cycle is a weak green ladder line. The long - short dividing water level is 59,365 yuan/ton [7]. - **Strategy Suggestion**: The polysilicon market may continue to be weak, and attention should be paid to the support level at 50,000 yuan [7]. - **Follow - up Focus**: The follow - up policy trend of "anti - involution" [7]. 3.3 Industrial Silicon - **Market Trend**: The industrial silicon futures fluctuated strongly today. The 2605 contract rose 2.11% from the previous trading day's closing price, reporting 8,715 yuan/ton [10]. - **Core Logic**: The interview of the photovoltaic association and leading enterprises by the State Administration for Market Regulation will cause the silicon material price to lose the coordinated support and return to cost competition. In the long run, polysilicon enterprises will reduce the purchase price and quantity of industrial silicon, directly putting pressure on the industrial silicon price. Coupled with the weak supply - demand situation and high inventory of industrial silicon itself, it lacks upward momentum [10]. - **Technical Analysis**: The overall position of industrial silicon futures declined significantly. The 5 - minute cycle of the 2605 contract is a green line, red ribbon, and green ladder, and the overnight 2 - hour cycle is a weak green ladder line. The long - short dividing water level is 9,000 yuan/ton [10]. - **Strategy Suggestion**: It is currently oscillating in the 8,500 - 9,000 yuan range. In the long term, attention can be paid to the impact of polysilicon returning to cost - based pricing on industrial silicon. Intraday operations can refer to the Band Winner indicator in the 8:30 morning live broadcast [12]. - **Follow - up Focus**: The follow - up policy trend of "anti - involution" [12].

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Ratings No industry investment ratings were provided in the report. 2. Core Views - **Carbonate Lithium**: In the context of "strong reality, strong expectations," the operation should still focus on buying on dips. However, avoid chasing high prices directly. Look for good entry positions using the "First K Breakthrough Method" or the "Three - Line Resonance Method" during the day [6]. - **Industrial Silicon**: The short - term trend is expected to continue oscillating. Pay attention to the implementation of anti - involution and cost - side price conditions. Day - trading can refer to the Band Winner indicator during the 8:30 morning live broadcast [12]. - **Polysilicon**: The short - term may maintain a high - level oscillating pattern. It is recommended to wait and see [17]. 3. Summary by Directory Carbonate Lithium - **Market Trend**: The carbonate lithium futures rose strongly in the morning session and then oscillated. The main 2605 contract closed at 142,300 yuan/ton, up 3.16% from the previous trading day's closing price [1]. - **Core Logic**: Positive factors include geopolitical and market sentiment (Venezuela situation and Mali security concerns), downstream demand boost (price increase of downstream enterprises and production schedule adjustment of cathode material enterprises), and policy support (new energy vehicle policy and solid waste management plan). Negative factors are short - term weakening of downstream demand, lower - than - expected terminal consumption in December 2025, and signs of marginal weakening in the fundamentals due to slower inventory depletion [2][3][4][6]. - **Technical Analysis**: The overall capital sentiment is still controlled by bulls, but the current position has decreased significantly, and the driving force may weaken. The 5 - minute and overnight 2 - hour cycle of the main 2605 contract are in a relatively strong state, with the long - short dividing water level at 118,820 yuan/ton [6]. - **Follow - up Focus**: Inventory changes, resumption of Jiangxi lithium projects and lithium concentrate imports, mining - related policy progress, new energy vehicle sales data, and the actual impact of geopolitical situations on lithium supply [7]. Industrial Silicon - **Market Trend**: The industrial silicon futures oscillated. The 2605 contract closed at 8,980 yuan/ton, up 0.90% from the previous trading day's closing price [9]. - **Core Logic**: Affected by the macro - emotional side, domestic commodities generally rose. Fundamentally, the supply decreased in January, and the cost side supported the price. The demand side was weak, and the industry inventory was at a three - year high, continuing the pattern of inventory accumulation. There is no substantial driving force for the price to break through the current oscillation range, so it is expected to continue oscillating in the short term [9][12]. - **Technical Analysis**: The overall position of industrial silicon futures increased significantly. The 5 - minute and overnight 2 - hour cycle of the 2605 contract are in a relatively strong state, with the long - short dividing water level at 8,715 yuan/ton [12]. - **Follow - up Focus**: For upward breakthrough, pay attention to supply - side contraction, implementation of storage policies, and significant increase in cost - side prices. For downward breakthrough, focus on new capacity release, significant decline in downstream开工率, and electricity price reduction in the southwest region during the wet season [13]. Polysilicon - **Market Trend**: The polysilicon futures oscillated weakly. The main 2605 contract closed at 58,300 yuan/ton, down 1.79% from the previous trading day's closing price [16]. - **Core Logic**: Leading silicon material enterprises are firm in maintaining prices, and the expectation of price increase is strengthening. In January, domestic production was about 107,000 tons, while demand was less than 80,000 tons, and inventory will continue to accumulate. The exchange's regulatory measures may reduce subsequent capital inflows, and the price is expected to oscillate [16]. - **Technical Analysis**: The position of polysilicon futures decreased significantly. The 5 - minute and overnight 2 - hour cycle of the 2605 contract are in a relatively strong state, with the long - short dividing water level at 56,500 yuan/ton [16]. - **Follow - up Focus**: The recovery of warehouse receipts [19].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core View of the Report - The impact of the US attack on Venezuela on crude oil is limited, and the market may return to the downward drive caused by the oversupply pressure in the first quarter. Chemical products should be treated differently in the future. Asphalt can be a key long - position variety, while styrene can be a key short - position variety to focus on. PX - PTA should be observed in the short term and wait for the end of the callback to enter long positions in the next stage [1][2]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Crude Oil - Logic: The US attack on Venezuela has limited impact on crude oil. Venezuela has become an edge producer with about 1% of global output and 50 - 80 barrels per day of daily exports. After the event, the market may return to the downward drive of oversupply pressure in the first quarter [2][3][4]. - Technical Analysis: The daily - level has a medium - term downward structure, and the hourly - level has a short - term downward structure. The price hit a new low recently. The short - term upper pressure is at 436. The strategy is to wait and see in the hourly cycle [4]. Asphalt - Logic: The US attack on Venezuela has a substantial impact on domestic asphalt raw materials. With the paralysis of Venezuelan crude oil exports, the Venezuelan heavy oil (accounting for over 40% of domestic asphalt raw materials) faces a real supply cut. The asphalt market faces dual upward drives of supply reduction and cost increase. - Technical Analysis: The hourly - level has a short - term upward structure. The volume is well - matched, and there is still an upward space after the accumulation of momentum. The short - term support is at 2990. The strategy is to hold half of the long - position in the hourly level with a stop - profit at 2990 [7]. Styrene - Logic: The entire styrene industry chain has high inventory. The high inventory of pure benzene upstream drags down the price of styrene. The downstream 3S has weak demand and profits. The industry is in an oversupply state. If the expected export increase in January is false, the price of styrene will fall [10]. - Technical Analysis: The hourly - level has a short - term upward structure, but the upward volume is insufficient. The 15 - minute cycle has changed from a decline to a shock. The short - term support is at 6700. The strategy is to wait and see in the hourly cycle and hold short - positions in the 15 - minute level with a stop - loss at 6835 [11][13]. Rubber - Logic: The seasonal inventory accumulation rate of domestic natural rubber is fast, and the inventory is higher than the same period. Coupled with the high inventory pressure of downstream tires, there is no strong upward drive. - Technical Analysis: The daily - level has a medium - term shock structure, and the hourly - level has a short - term upward structure. After an increase in volume and price followed by a decline at the end of the session, the short - term support is moved up to 15700. The strategy is to wait and see in the hourly cycle [14][16]. Synthetic Rubber - Logic: Synthetic rubber maintains a high - operating state and has a slight inventory reduction due to traders' replenishment. The raw material butadiene also has an inventory reduction, but the high supply pressure of butadiene and the high inventory pressure of downstream tires limit the upward space. - Technical Analysis: The daily - level has a medium - term upward structure, and the hourly - level has a short - term upward structure. After an increase in volume and price, the short - term support is moved up to 11750 [17]. PX - Logic: The fundamentals of PX - PTA are strong in both reality and expectation. However, due to the low acceptance of downstream polyester in the off - season, there is a short - term callback. In the medium term, there is an opportunity for a second low - entry long - position due to the expected supply shortage in the first half of the year. - Technical Analysis: The daily - level has a medium - term upward structure, and the hourly - level has a short - term downward structure. The short - term pressure is at 7390. The strategy is to wait and see in the hourly cycle [20][23]. PTA - Logic: Similar to PX, the fundamentals of PX - PTA are strong, but there is a short - term callback due to downstream factors. There is a medium - term opportunity for a second low - entry long - position. - Technical Analysis: The daily - level has a medium - term upward structure, and the hourly - level has a short - term downward structure. The short - term pressure is at 5205. The strategy is to wait and see in the hourly cycle [25]. PP - Logic: The fundamentals of the olefin industry chain (PP - plastic) are weak. There is no single - side long - position drive, and short - selling at a low level has low cost - effectiveness. It is only suitable for the chemical configuration logic in the medium - term long - aromatics (PX, PTA) and short - olefins (PP, plastic) hedging. - Technical Analysis: The hourly - level has a short - term upward structure. After a small increase in price with a decrease in volume, the short - term support is moved up to 6350. The strategy is to wait and see in the hourly cycle [28]. Methanol - Logic: The methanol port inventory is at a historically high level. Although there is an expected reduction in Iranian ship arrivals, the downstream MTO profit is weakening, and the fundamental drive is still weak. The US attack on Venezuela has limited impact on methanol. - Technical Analysis: The daily - level has a medium - term downward structure, and the hourly - level has a short - term upward structure. After an increase in volume followed by a decline, the short - term support is at 2200. The strategy is to wait and see in the hourly cycle [31]. PVC - Logic: PVC has high production, weak demand, and high inventory, but the current valuation is low. Pay attention to the expected trading of policy and spring maintenance in the first quarter. The news of Shaanxi's proposed differential electricity price for the calcium carbide industry has a short - term positive impact on the market. - Technical Analysis: The daily - level has a medium - term downward structure, and the hourly - level has a short - term upward structure. After an increase in volume and price, the short - term support is moved up to 4820. The strategy is to hold long - positions in the hourly cycle with a stop - profit at 4820 [34]. Ethylene Glycol - Logic: The weak coal price on the cost side and the continuous inventory accumulation at the port, along with weakening demand, mean that the fundamentals do not provide a strong upward drive. - Technical Analysis: The daily - level has a medium - term downward structure, and the hourly - level structure is unclear. After a decrease in volume followed by an increase in price, the strategy is to wait and see in the hourly cycle [36]. Plastic - Logic: Similar to PP, the fundamentals of the olefin industry chain (PP - plastic) are weak. There is no single - side long - position drive, and short - selling at a low level has low cost - effectiveness. It is only suitable for the chemical configuration logic in the medium - term long - aromatics (PX, PTA) and short - olefins (PP, plastic) hedging. - Technical Analysis: The daily - level has a medium - term downward structure, and the hourly - level has a short - term upward structure. After a small increase in price with a decrease in volume, the short - term support is at 6435. The strategy is to wait and see in the hourly cycle [39]. Soda Ash - Logic: The inventory pressure of soda ash has weakened slightly, but it is still high compared to the same period. The over - supply pattern caused by large - scale capacity expansion in recent years remains unchanged, and there is no expected increase in terminal demand. - Technical Analysis: The hourly - level has a short - term upward structure. After a large increase in volume and price, the short - term support is moved up to 1215. The strategy is to wait and see in the hourly cycle [40]. Caustic Soda - Logic: Caustic soda has high supply, high inventory, and weak demand. The supply - demand drive is downward, but there is no space for short - selling at present. - Technical Analysis: The hourly - level structure is unclear. After a large increase in volume and price, the strategy is to wait and see in the hourly cycle [42].

Report Summary 1. Industry Investment Rating No information provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints - The agricultural products sector shows a mixed performance, with cotton and soybean meal rising strongly, while other products such as live pigs, palm oil, sugar, and eggs also present different trends [1]. 3. Summary by Variety (1) Cotton - The cotton main contract 2605 continued to rise sharply, breaking through the 15,000 integer mark. The expected decline in cotton planting area in Xinjiang in 2026 and strong downstream demand supported the price increase [1][2]. - The new cotton sales rate increased significantly year - on - year, and downstream textile enterprises had stable orders. The operating rate of Xinjiang textile enterprises remained above 90% for a long time. The improvement of Sino - US economic and trade relations led to optimistic expectations for textile and clothing exports [2]. - The strategy is to continue to go long with a light position on dips, with support at 14,730 - 14,840 [2]. (2) Soybean Meal - The soybean meal main contract 2605 rose significantly, hitting a one - month high. The bullish atmosphere in the commodity market and the decline in domestic soybean meal inventory boosted the price [1][3]. - The inventory of domestic soybean meal was 1.135 million tons as of the end of the first week of 2026, a month - on - month decrease of 3.52%. Attention should be paid to the subsequent oil mill crushing volume and spot trading [3]. - The strategy is to close short positions [3]. (3) Live Pigs - The live pig main contract 2603 first rose and then fell, reaching a phased high. After the peak slaughter in December 2025, the slaughter plan of breeding enterprises decreased in January, and the demand was expected to pick up as the Chinese New Year approached [5]. - The strategy is to continue to go long with a light position on dips, with support at 11,700 - 11,760 [5]. (4) Palm Oil - The palm oil main contract 2605 oscillated upwards, driven by the decline in Malaysian palm oil production. Malaysian palm oil production decreased by 4.64% month - on - month to 1.84 million tons in December 2025, and the production from January 1 - 5, 2026 decreased by 34.48% month - on - month [7]. - The strategy is to conduct short - term trading for the time being [7]. (5) Sugar - The Zhengzhou sugar main contract 2605 continued to oscillate upwards. The sugar production in Guangxi in the 2025/26 season as of the end of December 2025 was 1.9419 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of 0.8095 million tons. The demand was expected to pick up during the Spring Festival [10]. - The strategy is to continue to go long with a light position [10]. (6) Eggs - The egg main contract 2603 continued to rise. The culling of old hens increased month - on - month, and farmers reduced replenishment. The Spring Festival stocking started, and market trading was active [11][13]. - The strategy is to go long with a light position on dips [13].

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Ratings No industry investment ratings are provided in the report 2. Core Views - **Carbonate Lithium**: The market is influenced by multiple factors. Policy support, geopolitical and market sentiment, downstream demand, and inventory factors drive prices up, but there are also negative factors such as short - term weakening of downstream demand and slower inventory depletion. The overall situation is "strong reality, strong expectation", and the operation strategy is to go long on dips [2][3][7] - **Industrial Silicon**: Affected by macro - sentiment, the market is in a state of supply - demand weakness in January. The inventory is at a three - year high, and it is expected to continue to fluctuate in the short term. The strategy is to view it as a short - term oscillation [15] - **Polysilicon**: The market has a situation of production exceeding demand in January, and the exchange has introduced regulatory measures. It is expected to oscillate at a high level in the short term, and the recommended strategy is to wait and see [18][21] 3. Summary by Industry Carbonate Lithium - **Market Trend**: The carbonate lithium futures rose by 6.12% to 137,940 yuan/ton [1] - **Positive Factors**: Policy support includes the 2026 new - energy vehicle trade - in policy and the "Solid Waste Comprehensive Management Action Plan". Geopolitical factors involve Venezuela and Mali. Downstream demand is boosted by price increases of downstream enterprises and production schedule adjustments of positive - electrode material enterprises. Inventory is low, creating a need for restocking [2][3][4] - **Negative Factors**: In January 2026, leading positive - electrode material factories had centralized maintenance, and in December 2025, new - energy vehicle wholesale decreased by 8% month - on - month. The depletion of social inventory has slowed down [7] - **Technical Analysis**: The market is dominated by bulls. There are trading opportunities with the "First K Breakthrough Method" and volume increase. The 5 - minute and 2 - hour cycles are strong, and the long - short demarcation line is 118,820 yuan/ton [7] - **Strategy Recommendation**: Go long on dips, and find entry points using the "First K Breakthrough Method" or "Three - Line Resonance Method" [7] - **Follow - up Focus**: The resumption of Jiangxi lithium projects, lithium concentrate imports, mine - related policies, new - energy vehicle sales, inventory changes, and geopolitical impacts on lithium supply [8][14] Industrial Silicon - **Market Trend**: The industrial silicon futures rose by 1.95% to 8,900 yuan/ton [10] - **Core Logic**: Affected by macro - sentiment, the market has a short - term supply contraction and cost support. The demand side is weak, and the inventory is at a three - year high, continuing the inventory accumulation pattern [15] - **Technical Analysis**: The overall position has increased significantly. The 5 - minute and 2 - hour cycles are strong, and the long - short demarcation line is 8,715 yuan/ton [15] - **Strategy Recommendation**: View it as a short - term oscillation and refer to the Band Winner indicator [15] - **Breakthrough Focus**: Upward breakthrough factors include supply contraction, storage policies, and cost increases. Downward breakthrough factors include new capacity release, downstream开工 rate decline, and electricity price reduction [16] Polysilicon - **Market Trend**: The polysilicon futures rose by 1.23% to 59,365 yuan/ton [18] - **Core Logic**: The quoted price of leading manufacturers is above 60 yuan/kg, but the demand is less than production, and inventory will continue to accumulate. Exchange regulatory measures may reduce capital inflow [18][21] - **Technical Analysis**: The market is rising with reduced positions and insufficient volume. The 5 - minute cycle is green - line, red - band, green - ladder, and the 2 - hour cycle is strong, with a long - short demarcation line of 56,500 yuan/ton [21] - **Strategy Recommendation**: Wait and see [21] - **Follow - up Focus**: The recovery of warehouse receipts [21]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - Amid the threat against Iran and a bullish market sentiment, the energy and chemical sectors are strong today, but it is still recommended to treat different varieties differently in the follow - up [1] - The US attack on Venezuela has limited impact on crude oil, and the market may return to the downward drive caused by the oversupply pressure in the first quarter [2][3][4] - Asphalt can be a key long - position variety, while PX - PTA is in a short - term correction and waiting for the next long - entry opportunity, and styrene can be a key short - position variety [2] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs (1) Crude Oil - Logic: The US attack on Venezuela has limited impact on crude oil as Venezuela's production accounts for about 1% and daily exports are 50 - 800,000 barrels, and it lacks the geographical advantage of the Strait of Hormuz. After the event, the market may return to the downward drive of the first - quarter oversupply pressure [2][3][4] - Technical Analysis: The daily - level shows a medium - term downward structure, and the hourly - level shows a short - term downward structure. Today, it rebounded with a reduction in positions, but the short - term downward structure remains intact. The short - term pressure is at the 436 level. The hourly - cycle strategy is to wait and see [4] (2) Asphalt - Logic: The US attack on Venezuela has a substantial impact on domestic asphalt raw materials. Venezuelan crude oil exports are paralyzed, and the main domestic asphalt raw material, Venezuelan heavy oil, faces a real supply cut. The asphalt market faces dual upward drivers of supply reduction and cost increase. [7] - Technical Analysis: The hourly - level shows a short - term upward structure. It oscillated today, and the trading volume has been well - matched since yesterday's gap - up opening. The short - term support is at the 2990 level. The hourly - level strategy is to hold half of the long positions and set the stop - profit at 2990 [7] (3) Styrene - Logic: The entire styrene industry chain has high inventory. The high inventory of upstream pure benzene and weak downstream 3S demand, along with the industry's over - capacity, may lead to a price decline if the expected January export increase is false [10] - Technical Analysis: The hourly - level shows a short - term upward structure, and the 15 - minute level shows a downward structure. The short - term support is below 6700. The hourly - cycle strategy is to wait and see, and hold the 15 - minute - level short positions with a stop - loss at 6835 [11][13] (4) Rubber - Logic: The seasonal inventory of domestic natural rubber is increasing rapidly, and the downstream tire inventory is high, so there is no significant upward driver [15] - Technical Analysis: The daily - level shows a medium - term oscillating structure, and the hourly - level shows a short - term upward structure. It rose slightly with increased positions today. The short - term support is raised to the 15550 level. The hourly - cycle strategy is to wait and see [15] (5) Synthetic Rubber - Logic: Synthetic rubber maintains a high - operating rate, with a slight inventory reduction due to traders' restocking. However, the high supply pressure of butadiene and high downstream tire inventory limit the upward space [17] - Technical Analysis: Both the daily - and hourly - levels show upward structures. It rose slightly with increased positions today. The short - term support is raised to the 11400 level. The hourly - level strategy is to wait and see [17] (6) PX - Logic: The fundamentals of PX - PTA are strong in both reality and expectation. However, due to the low acceptance of high prices by downstream polyester, it is facing a short - term correction. There is an opportunity for a second low - buying in the medium - term [20] - Technical Analysis: The daily - level shows a medium - term upward structure, and the hourly - level shows a short - term downward structure. It rebounded with increased positions today but did not break through the short - term pressure at 7390. The hourly - level strategy is to wait and see [20][23] (7) PTA - Logic: Similar to PX, the fundamentals of PX - PTA are strong, but it is facing a short - term correction due to downstream resistance. There is an opportunity for a second low - buying in the medium - term [25] - Technical Analysis: The daily - level shows a medium - term upward structure, and the hourly - level shows a short - term downward structure. It rebounded with increased positions today but did not break through the short - term pressure at 5205. The hourly - level strategy is to wait and see [25] (8) PP - Logic: The fundamentals of the olefin industry chain where PP - plastic belongs are still weak. It is only suitable for the chemical configuration logic in the medium - term hedging of long aromatics (PX, PTA) and short olefins (PP, plastic) [28] - Technical Analysis: The hourly - level shows a short - term upward structure. It rose slightly with increased positions today. The short - term support is raised to the 6305 level. The hourly - cycle strategy is to wait and see [28] (9) Methanol - Logic: Methanol port inventory is at a historically high level, and although there is an expected reduction in Iranian ship arrivals, the downstream MTO profit is weakening, and the fundamental driving force is still weak. The US attack on Venezuela has limited impact on methanol [31] - Technical Analysis: The daily - level shows a medium - term downward structure, and the short - term shows an upward structure. It rose sharply with increased positions today. The short - term support is at the 2200 level. The hourly - cycle strategy is to wait and see [31] (10) PVC - Logic: The reality of high production, weak demand, and high inventory of PVC continues, but the current valuation is low. Pay attention to the expected trading of anti - involution and policy support. The news of differential electricity prices in Shaanxi has stimulated a short - term upward movement [34] - Technical Analysis: The daily - level shows a medium - term downward structure, and the hourly - level shows a short - term upward structure. It rose sharply with increased positions today, hitting a new high. The short - term support is raised to the 4725 level. The hourly - cycle strategy is to hold long positions and set the stop - profit at 4725 [34] (11) Ethylene Glycol - Logic: The weak coal price in the cost side and the continuous inventory increase in ports, along with weakening demand, do not provide a driving force for a significant reversal [36] - Technical Analysis: The daily - level shows a medium - term downward structure, and the hourly - level structure is unclear. It rebounded with a reduction in positions today. The hourly - cycle strategy is to wait and see [36] (12) Plastic - Logic: Similar to PP, the fundamentals of the olefin industry chain where plastic belongs are weak. It is only suitable for the chemical configuration logic in the medium - term hedging of long aromatics and short olefins [39] - Technical Analysis: The daily - level shows a medium - term downward structure, and the hourly - level downward structure is being challenged. It rebounded with a reduction in positions today, breaking through the short - term pressure at 6545. The hourly - cycle strategy is to wait and see [39] (13) Soda Ash - Logic: The inventory pressure of soda ash has weakened slightly, but the over - supply pattern remains, and there is no significant upward driving force without an expected increase in terminal demand [40] - Technical Analysis: The hourly - level shows an upward structure. It rebounded slightly near the support level today. The short - term support is at the 1170 level, and the short - term upward structure remains intact. The hourly - cycle strategy is to wait and see [40] (14) Caustic Soda - Logic: Caustic soda has a pattern of high supply, high inventory, and weak demand. The supply - demand driving force is downward, but there is no space for chasing short positions [42] - Technical Analysis: The hourly - level structure is unclear. It rebounded with a reduction in positions today. Pay attention to the 15 - minute downward structure, and the 15 - minute pressure is at the 2260 level. The hourly - cycle strategy is to wait and see [42]

二、品种策略跟踪 （一）棉花：劲升 棉花劲升、生猪上涨 一、农产品板块综述 棉花劲升创新高，2026 年新疆播种面积下降预期以及下游需求 偏强支撑棉价上涨。生猪亦回升，1 月生猪出栏计划减少以及传统需 求旺季支撑猪价上扬。 焦点关注：棉花主力 2605 合约再度劲升创新高，继续受到远期 供应收缩预期以及下游需求较强的支撑： 1.新疆 2026 年棉花播种面积下降预期持续发酵，引发市场对远 期供给收缩的担忧升温，成为多头持续炒作题材。而新棉上市后销售 率同比大幅增加，显示需求显著增强。下游纺织企业接单稳定，中高 支纱线需求强劲，纺企开工率较高，尤其是新疆企业开机率长时间稳 定在 9 成以上。中美经贸关系改善后，市场对纺织品服装出口有乐观 预期。而棉花进口规模下降。棉花期价再度高位大涨，走势强劲。 2.棉花期货主力 2605 合约高位大涨创新高，期价在均线系统之 上运行，强势延续，策略上继续逢低轻仓多单，支撑 14600—14650。 （二）生猪：强劲回升 焦点关注：生猪主力 2603 合约调整之后获得支撑，强劲回升， 受到供应端出栏减少和需求旺季的提振： 1.经过 2025 年 12 月高峰出栏之后，1 月份养 ...