1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Views - The lithium carbonate futures continued to rebound, with the main 2601 contract rising 6.00% to 87,240 yuan/ton, hitting a two - and - a - half - month high. The market returned to the fundamental logic, and the "energy storage + power" demand strongly supported the lithium price. The inventory decreased, and the price was expected to be strong in the short term [1]. - The industrial silicon futures fluctuated strongly, with the main 2601 contract rising 0.76% to 9,290 yuan/ton. The fundamentals showed a pattern of weak supply and demand, and the market was expected to be strong in the short term [5][8]. - The polysilicon futures continued to fluctuate at a high level, with the main 2601 contract rising 0.95% to 53,720 yuan/ton. The market trading focus switched between fundamentals and policy expectations, and the market was mainly in a wide - range shock [12]. 3. Summary by Directory Carbonate Lithium - **Market Performance**: The main 2601 contract rose 6.00% to 87,240 yuan/ton, hitting a two - and - a - half - month high [1]. - **Fundamentals**: The "energy storage + power" demand supported the lithium price. The new energy vehicle market had strong growth momentum, and the energy storage demand exceeded expectations. The inventory decreased by 3405 tons, a 2.67% week - on - week decrease, and the de - stocking accelerated [1]. - **Technical Analysis**: The overall position increased significantly. The main 2601 contract increased positions and rose, with bulls in control. The 5 - minute cycle was expected to be strong in the short term, and the 2 - hour cycle turned strong last Friday with a long - short dividing water level of 78,560 yuan/ton [2]. Industrial Silicon - **Market Performance**: The main 2601 contract rose 0.76% to 9,290 yuan/ton [5]. - **Fundamentals**: The fundamentals tightened. Southern small and medium - sized factories reduced production due to the dry season, while northern supply remained high. The downstream had a reduction expectation, showing a pattern of weak supply and demand [5][8]. - **Technical Analysis**: The overall position increased slightly. The main 2601 contract increased positions and rose, with bulls in control. The 5 - minute cycle was expected to be strong in the short term, and the 2 - hour cycle turned strong last Friday with a long - short dividing water level of 8,885 yuan/ton [8]. Polysilicon - **Market Performance**: The main 2601 contract rose 0.95% to 53,720 yuan/ton [12]. - **Fundamentals**: The market trading focus switched between fundamentals and policy expectations. The supply was expected to tighten, with an expected 15.36% month - on - month decrease in November production. The silicon wafer production decreased, the battery market was weak, and the component price was stable [12]. - **Technical Analysis**: The overall position decreased slightly. The main 2601 contract increased positions and rose, with bulls in control. The 5 - minute cycle was in shock, and the 2 - hour cycle had a long - short dividing water level of 56,065 yuan/ton [13][15].

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core View of the Report - In the short - term, crude oil is likely to continue oscillating as it lacks both short - term supply - demand and geopolitical drivers. After the Venezuelan situation develops, there may be an opportunity for a high - level short position this year. Among the energy and chemical products, polyester is hyped for supply cuts. Styrene has short - term supply - demand improvement but significant medium - term supply pressure. Methanol has clear medium - term upward drivers and can be considered a long - position core variety [1]. Summary by Directory Crude Oil - Logic: From this year to the first quarter of next year, the pressure of crude oil supply surplus is still significant. However, due to the low - level inventory and the delay of the expected supply shock, combined with the digestion of previous short - term geopolitical events, it will likely oscillate until new variables emerge. Pay attention to the Venezuelan situation for a high - level short - selling opportunity [3]. - Technical Analysis: It shows a medium - term downward structure on the daily line and a short - term oscillating structure on the hourly line. It oscillates during the day. The hourly cycle strategy suggests waiting and seeing [3]. Styrene - Logic: Recently, with more maintenance, the operating rate has dropped to the lowest in the same period in recent years, but the production is still at the highest in the same period. Although the inventory is in the seasonal destocking stage, the destocking rate is lower than in previous years. In the medium term, the situation is still pessimistic, especially in the first quarter of next year [5]. - Technical Analysis: It has a short - term downward structure on the hourly line. It oscillates during the day, with signs of short - position profit - taking. The upper short - term pressure is at 6345. It is recommended to take profit actively when geopolitical risks reappear and look for short - position re - entry opportunities after the daily - line rebound [8]. Rubber - Logic: Since August, the downward trend of rubber has been less smooth than that of synthetic rubber. The supply pressure of natural rubber is not obvious in the rainy season in Southeast Asia since October. The key is to focus on the driving effect of synthetic rubber [10]. - Technical Analysis: It shows a medium - term downward structure on the daily line and a short - term downward structure on the hourly line. It rebounds with reduced positions today, but the downward structure remains unchanged, and the upper short - term pressure is at 15170. The hourly - level strategy is to wait and see [11][13]. Synthetic Rubber - Logic: The main driver is the cost - end butadiene. Although the current inventory has not increased significantly, the high supply pressure of butadiene in the medium term will still be prominent. It is recommended to take profit on previous short positions and wait for a high - level short - selling opportunity after the crude oil rebound [16][18]. - Technical Analysis: It shows a medium - term downward structure on the daily line and a short - term downward structure on the hourly line. It rebounds with reduced positions today, and the upper short - term pressure is at 10500. It is recommended to take profit actively when geopolitical risks reappear and look for short - position re - entry opportunities after the daily - line rebound [18]. PX - Logic: There are few contradictions in polyester itself, but after the industry development symposium, there are many rumors of polyester industry production cuts, and the market has been trading with increasing positions. Pay attention to the realization of expectations [22]. - Technical Analysis: It has a short - term upward structure on the hourly line. It rises with increasing positions today, and the lower short - term support is at 6715. The hourly - level strategy is to wait and see [22]. PTA - Logic: Similar to PX, there are few contradictions in polyester itself, and pay attention to the realization of production - cut rumors [24]. - Technical Analysis: It has a short - term upward structure on the hourly line. It rises with reduced positions today, and the lower short - term support is at 4620. The hourly - level strategy is to wait and see [24]. PP - Logic: After the commissioning of the Guangxi Petrochemical plant, the supply pressure increases, and the downstream demand recovery is limited. Pay attention to the cost - end crude oil drive [27]. - Technical Analysis: It has a short - term downward structure on the hourly line. It oscillates during the day, and the upper short - term pressure is at 6530. It is recommended to take profit actively when geopolitical risks reappear [27]. Methanol - Logic: The current high - supply, high - import, and high - inventory situation continues, and the market is still in the bottom - finding stage. For short - sellers, it is not advisable to chase short positions. For long - buyers, there are medium - term long - entry opportunities when the short - term structure changes and specific events occur [32]. - Technical Analysis: It shows a medium - term and short - term downward structure on the daily line. It rebounds after hitting a new low today, and the upper short - term pressure moves down to 2150. It is recommended to take profit on short positions at 2150 and look for long - entry opportunities after the short - term structure reverses [32]. PVC - Logic: The supply remains high, the domestic real - estate demand collapses, and the social inventory has reached the highest level in history. There is no upward driving force [35]. - Technical Analysis: It shows a medium - term downward structure on the daily line and a short - term downward structure on the hourly line. It oscillates during the day, and the upper short - term pressure moves down to 4640. The hourly - cycle short - position strategy can be held according to the technical analysis [35]. Ethylene Glycol - Logic: The supply is at a high level, and the supply pressure increases with new capacity. Be vigilant against short - term geopolitical risks in crude oil [37]. - Technical Analysis: It shows a medium - term and short - term downward structure on the daily and hourly lines respectively. It oscillates near the pressure level during the day, and the upper short - term pressure is at 3950. It is recommended to take profit actively when geopolitical risks reappear [37]. Plastic - Logic: After the commissioning of the Guangxi Petrochemical plant, the supply pressure increases, and the downstream demand in the peak season is weak. Be vigilant against short - term geopolitical risks in crude oil [39]. - Technical Analysis: It shows a medium - term and short - term downward structure on the daily and hourly lines respectively. It oscillates during the day, and the upper short - term pressure is at 6850. It is recommended to take profit actively when geopolitical risks reappear [39]. Soda Ash - Logic: The pattern of high supply and high inventory continues, and the downward driving force remains unchanged. There is a rebound today due to rumors of some enterprises' production suspension [44]. - Technical Analysis: It has a short - term downward structure on the hourly line. It oscillates during the day, and the upper short - term pressure is at 1245. The 15 - minute cycle structure turns bullish, and the hourly level shows resistance to decline. It is recommended to hold the remaining short positions cautiously with 1245 as the profit - taking level [44]. Caustic Soda - Logic: The pattern of high supply and high inventory continues, and there is no upward driving force in supply - demand [45]. - Technical Analysis: It has a short - term downward structure on the hourly line. It oscillates during the day, and the upper short - term pressure is at 2400. The hourly - level strategy is to wait and see [45].

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core View of the Report - Recently, the energy and chemical sector has diverged from the crude oil market, with the fundamentals driving the trend. Key products like synthetic rubber and styrene have hit new lows, and methanol has also shown a downward trend. Crude oil has rebounded recently due to geopolitical disturbances and short - term supply - demand factors. Given the high probability of a US military action against Venezuela, short - term geopolitical risks may resurface, and it is recommended to take profit on oil - chemical related positions and wait for opportunities to re - enter short positions [1]. Summary by Relevant Catalog Crude Oil - **Logic**: After digesting the impact of US sanctions on Russia, the medium - term logic is the downward pressure from the gradual realization of supply - demand surplus. However, the supply - demand logic has not been smoothly realized recently. The high probability of a US military action against Venezuela may bring a similar impact to the market as the bombing of Iran in July. It is recommended to take profit on short positions [2][3]. - **Technical Analysis**: It has a medium - term downward structure on the daily chart and a short - term oscillating structure on the hourly chart. It oscillated during the day. Short positions on the hourly cycle can be held according to technical analysis, with a stop - loss reference at 471, but it is recommended to stop loss and wait and see due to geopolitical risks [3]. Styrene - **Logic**: It is the most bearish product in the energy and chemical sector, with weak reality and weak expectations. The core logic is the continuous accumulation of factory and port inventories due to new device production and slow demand growth. There is a risk of price collapse under the pressure of over - inventory. The possible US military action against Venezuela may bring short - term emotional disturbances [6]. - **Technical Analysis**: It has a short - term downward structure on the hourly chart. After hitting a new low today, it rebounded with reduced positions at the end of the session. The short - term downward structure remains unchanged, with a short - term resistance at 6345. Short positions on the hourly cycle can be held according to technical analysis, but it is recommended to take profit and wait for a rebound on the daily chart to re - enter short positions due to geopolitical risks [6]. Rubber - **Logic**: Tire demand is stable, but the willingness to stock up is low due to inventory pressure and high raw material prices. The supply is expected to increase significantly in the fourth quarter. There is no obvious short - term contradiction, and there is a certain bullish driving force due to continuous inventory reduction recently. The pressure of inventory accumulation in the peak season should be monitored in the medium term [9]. - **Technical Analysis**: It has a medium - term downward structure on the daily chart and a short - term downward structure on the hourly chart. It increased in volume during the day and closed with a long Yang line after a slight reduction in positions at the end of the session. The downward structure remains unchanged, but the downward momentum has weakened, with a short - term resistance at 15170. It is recommended to wait and see on the hourly cycle [9]. Synthetic Rubber - **Logic**: The high supply pressure of butadiene rubber persists, but the supply - demand contradiction is gradually weakening due to stable tire demand. The main driving factor is the cost - side butadiene, whose high supply and high inventory situation has led to cost loosening and the product hitting a new low since listing. The possible US military action against Venezuela may bring short - term emotional disturbances [13]. - **Technical Analysis**: It has a medium - term downward structure on the daily chart and a short - term downward structure on the hourly chart. It rebounded with a long Yang line and reduced positions today. The short - term downward structure remains unchanged, with a short - term resistance at 10520. Short positions on the hourly cycle can be held according to technical analysis, but it is recommended to take profit and wait for a rebound on the daily chart to re - enter short positions due to geopolitical risks [13]. PX - **Logic**: High profits drive high - level operation, with sufficient supply and stable demand. The main logic is to follow the fluctuations of crude oil. Attention should be paid to whether there are production - reduction measures in the polyester industry meeting [15]. - **Technical Analysis**: It has a short - term upward structure on the hourly chart. It showed abnormal growth with increased positions in the afternoon, and the short - term upward trend may accelerate, with a short - term support at 6560. It is recommended to wait and see on the hourly cycle [15]. PTA - **Logic**: There is no significant supply - demand contradiction. The main logic is to follow the cost fluctuations of crude oil. Attention should be paid to whether there are production - reduction measures in the polyester industry meeting [19]. - **Technical Analysis**: It has a short - term upward structure on the hourly chart. It showed abnormal growth with increased positions in the afternoon, and the short - term structure has reversed, with a short - term support at 4550. It is recommended to wait and see on the hourly cycle [19]. PP - **Logic**: The commissioning of the Guangxi Petrochemical plant has increased the supply pressure, and the downstream demand recovery is limited. The supply - demand expectation is weak, and attention should be paid to the downward pressure on the cost side brought by the decline of crude oil [23]. - **Technical Analysis**: It has a short - term downward structure on the hourly chart. It oscillated during the day, rebounded with reduced positions after hitting a new low. The short - term resistance is at 6530. Short positions on the hourly cycle can be held according to technical analysis, but it is recommended to take profit due to geopolitical risks [23]. Methanol - **Logic**: High supply and high inventory have been pressing down, but as Iran enters the heating season, the short - term buying opportunity is approaching. The possible US military action against Venezuela may have a limited impact on methanol, but it is recommended to take profit on previous short positions [25]. - **Technical Analysis**: It has a medium - term and short - term downward structure on the daily and hourly charts respectively. It oscillated during the day, with a short - term resistance at 2210. It may stabilize in the short term after two consecutive days of rebound with reduced positions. Short positions on the hourly cycle can be held according to technical analysis, and the stop - profit should be moved down to 2150. It is recommended to take profit due to geopolitical risks [25]. PVC - **Logic**: The supply remains at a high level, the domestic real - estate demand has collapsed, and the social inventory has accumulated to the highest level in history. The high - production, high - inventory, and weak - demand structure makes it difficult to have an upward driving force [27]. - **Technical Analysis**: It has a medium - term downward structure on the daily chart and a short - term downward structure on the hourly chart. It oscillated during the day, with a short - term resistance at 4660. Short positions on the hourly cycle can be held according to technical analysis [27]. Ethylene Glycol - **Logic**: The supply is at a high level, and the supply pressure will further increase with new capacity. The continuous inventory accumulation recently has increased the downward driving force on the market. However, short - term geopolitical risks in crude oil should be vigilant [31]. - **Technical Analysis**: It has a medium - term downward structure on the daily chart and a short - term downward structure on the hourly chart. It oscillated during the day, with a short - term resistance at 3950. Short positions on the hourly cycle can be held according to technical analysis, but it is recommended to take profit due to geopolitical risks [31]. Plastic - **Logic**: The commissioning of the Guangxi Petrochemical plant has increased the supply pressure, and the downstream demand in the peak season is weak. The supply - demand expectation is weak. However, short - term geopolitical risks in crude oil should be vigilant [34]. - **Technical Analysis**: It has a medium - term downward structure on the daily chart and a short - term downward structure on the hourly chart. It oscillated during the day, with a short - term resistance at 6850. Short positions on the hourly cycle can be held according to technical analysis, but it is recommended to take profit due to geopolitical risks [34]. Soda Ash - **Logic**: The high - supply and high - inventory situation persists. The demand has further weakened due to the planned maintenance of 4 production lines in the glass industry on the weekend. The downward driving force of the fundamentals remains unchanged [36]. - **Technical Analysis**: It has a short - term downward structure on the hourly chart. It oscillated during the day and was in an oscillating state on the 15 - minute cycle, with a short - term resistance at 1245. Remaining short positions on the hourly cycle can be held [36]. Caustic Soda - **Logic**: The high - level operation continues, and the supply pressure increases with new capacity. The profit of downstream alumina is under pressure, and the demand growth is limited. The supply - demand driving force remains weak under the high - inventory situation compared with the same period [40]. - **Technical Analysis**: It has a short - term downward structure on the hourly chart. It rebounded with reduced positions today, but the short - term downward structure remains unchanged, with a short - term resistance at 2400. It is recommended to wait and see on the hourly cycle [40].

Report Summary 1. Investment Rating for the Industry No investment rating for the industry is provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints - The agricultural products sector shows mixed trends. Oils and fats are rebounding, corn has broken through and is rising, eggs are continuously strengthening, while some products like红枣 are falling and others are fluctuating [1]. 3. Summary by Variety (1) Palm Oil - **Market Trend**: The palm oil main 2601 contract has strongly rebounded. After the market digested the bearish factors, it had a technical rebound. The bearish factors of high production and inventory in Malaysia in October were gradually digested, and the approaching减产季 provided some support [2]. - **Strategy**: Close short - positions. The support level for the palm oil main 2601 contract is 8562, and the resistance level is 8780 [2]. (2) Corn - **Market Trend**: The corn main 2601 contract has broken through and risen, driven by improved demand. Policy support, farmers' reluctance to sell, reduced wheat substitution, and increased demand from corn starch enterprises have supported the price [3]. - **Strategy**: Go long with a light position. The support level for the main 2601 contract is 2130, and the resistance level is 2145 [3]. (3) Rapeseed Meal - **Market Trend**: The rapeseed meal main 2601 contract has continued to rise, supported by tight supply. High import costs, limited domestic soybean meal price increases, and a halt in rapeseed imports have led to a shortage of raw materials and a decline in rapeseed meal inventory [5]. - **Strategy**: Go long with a light position. The support level for the 2601 contract is 2520, and the resistance level is 2560 [5]. (4) Eggs - **Market Trend**: The egg main 2512 contract has continued to rise, driven by improved demand. Cooling weather is conducive to storage and transportation, and the traditional winter stocking season and increased hen culling have supported the price [7]. - **Strategy**: Continue to go long with a light position. The support level for the main 2512 contract is 3190, and the resistance level is 3250 [7]. (5) Red Dates - **Market Trend**: The red dates main 2601 contract has continued to fall, pressured by new jujube listings and increased inventory. The expected large - scale production reduction has basically failed, and the inventory is much higher than the same period last year [9]. - **Strategy**: Hold short - positions. The support level for the main 2601 contract is 9560, and the resistance level is 9770 [9]. (6) Live Pigs - **Market Trend**: The live pig main 2601 contract has fluctuated narrowly after a previous rebound. Cold weather has boosted consumption, but high inventory has limited the price rebound space [11]. - **Strategy**: Trade short - term. The support level for the main 2601 contract is 11825, and the resistance level is 12055 [11]. (7) Cotton - **Market Trend**: The cotton main 2601 contract has fluctuated narrowly after a sharp rise. The overall supply is abundant, but the inventory in inland areas is being digested, and textile enterprises' inventory pressure is not large [13]. - **Strategy**: Go long with a light position. The support level for the main 2601 contract is 13580, and the resistance level is 13700 [13]. (8) Apples - **Market Trend**: The apple main 2601 contract has fluctuated sharply, with both bullish and bearish factors. The expected low inventory due to low fruit quality and the potential shortage of deliverable goods coexist with the pressure from increased supply of ordinary goods and competition from citrus fruits [16]. - **Strategy**: Trade short - term. The support level for the main 2601 contract is 8886, and the resistance level is 9100 [16]. (9) Sugar - **Market Trend**: The Zhengzhou sugar main 2601 contract has fluctuated narrowly after a sharp fall. The global expected sugar surplus and the upcoming domestic sugar production increase have pressured the price [19]. - **Strategy**: Go short with a light position. The support level for the main 2601 contract is 5426, and the resistance level is 5451 [19].

Report Summary 1) Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2) Core Viewpoints - The lithium carbonate futures market is driven by both demand and inventory. The demand for lithium carbonate is strong due to the continued growth of new - energy vehicle sales and the rapid increase in energy - storage system installations. The inventory has been decreasing for 11 consecutive weeks. The production of lithium carbonate is expected to be stable in November and may decrease in December - January due to weather factors. Technically, it may have short - term horizontal consolidation. The market also needs to pay attention to the progress of lithium mine复产 [1]. - The industrial silicon futures market shows a horizontal oscillation. The supply is expected to decrease but still faces pressure, and the demand may further weaken. The spot price is firm, and the futures market is expected to have short - term horizontal oscillation. The fundamentals may improve during the dry season, and there will be more disturbing factors in winter [6][8]. - The polysilicon futures market is in a situation of weak supply and demand. The production in November is expected to decline, and the inventory is decreasing. The silicon wafer production in November will decrease, the battery market is weak, and the component market is stable. Technically, it is mainly in a wide - range oscillation [11]. 3) Summary by Directory Carbonate Lithium - **Fundamentals** - The main 2601 contract of lithium carbonate futures rose 1.72% to 80,500 yuan/ton. The demand is strong as the downstream material enterprises' production activity increases, new - energy vehicle sales grow (1.61 million units in October 2025, a 16% year - on - year and 7% month - on - month increase), and energy - storage system installations rise. The inventory has decreased by about 16,000 tons in 11 weeks, with 3,406 tons this week. The production in November is expected to be similar to October, and may decrease in December - January due to weather [1]. - **Technical Analysis** - The overall position of lithium carbonate futures has increased significantly. The main 2601 contract increased positions and went up today, controlled by bulls. There were "three - line resonance method" opportunities with volume increase at 11:30 and 13:50 on the 5 - minute cycle, with a 1:2 profit - loss ratio. The 5 - minute cycle is currently in a strong state, and the position has decreased, expected to have short - term horizontal oscillation. The 2 - hour cycle's long - short dividing water level is 83,400 yuan/ton [2]. Industrial Silicon - **Fundamentals** - The main 2601 contract of industrial silicon futures rose 0.50% to 9,065 yuan/ton. There is no new policy on production capacity. Affected by the macro - sentiment, the domestic commodity market is strong. The supply in the southwest production area is expected to decrease, but the pressure remains. The demand from polysilicon and its downstream may further weaken. The spot price is firm, and the basis price quoted by some futures - cash merchants has been raised, which may support the futures price [6][8]. - **Technical Analysis** - The overall position of industrial silicon futures has increased slightly. The main 2601 contract increased positions and went up today, controlled by bulls. The 5 - minute cycle is in an oscillating state, and the position has decreased, expected to have short - term horizontal oscillation. The 2 - hour cycle's long - short dividing water level is 9,170 yuan/ton [8]. Polysilicon - **Fundamentals** - The main 2601 contract of polysilicon futures rose 0.07% to 53,395 yuan/ton. The market has a situation of weak supply and demand. The production in October was about 134,000 tons, and it is expected to decline in November. The inventory decreased to 256,000 tons by October 31, a decrease of 10,600 tons from last week. The silicon wafer production in November will decrease, the battery market is weak, and the component market is stable [11]. - **Technical Analysis** - The overall position of polysilicon futures has decreased. The main 2601 contract decreased positions and went down today, controlled by bulls. There was a "similar three - line resonance method" opportunity with volume increase at 9:55, with a 1:2 profit - loss ratio. The 5 - minute cycle is in a weak state, and it is difficult to have a trending market, mainly in a wide - range oscillation. The 2 - hour cycle's long - short dividing water level is 56,410 yuan/ton [11][13].

Group 1: Report's Overall Core View - The current fundamental logic of crude oil is not smoothly realized, and short - term geopolitical risks may re - emerge. The energy and chemical sectors and the crude oil market have diverged again, with the fundamental logic being the main driver. Core products like synthetic rubber and styrene have been declining, and non - core products like methanol have also shown a downward trend. Due to the possible US military action against Venezuela, it is recommended to take active profit - taking actions on oil - chemical related products and wait for opportunities to re - enter short positions after the event [1]. Group 2: Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided. Group 3: Summary by Product Crude Oil - Logic: The impact of US sanctions on Russia has been digested. The medium - term logic is the downward pressure from the gradually realized supply - demand surplus. However, the supply - demand logic has not been smoothly realized recently. The probability of a US sea - air operation against Venezuela is high, which may affect the market similar to the bombing of Iran in July. It is recommended to take profit on short positions to avoid risks [2][3]. - Technical Analysis: The daily - level shows a medium - term downward structure, and the hourly - level shows a short - term downward structure. Today, there was a small increase in positions and a long - yang line testing the short - term pressure at 471, but it did not break through. Technically, it has not turned bullish in the short term. It is recommended to stop losses and wait and see due to geopolitical risks [3]. Styrene - Logic: It is the most bearish product in the energy and chemical sector, with weak reality and weak expectations. The core logic is the continuous inventory build - up due to new device production and slow demand growth, especially with the approaching seasonal inventory build - up in January. There is a risk of price collapse. The possible US action against Venezuela may bring short - term emotional disturbances [6]. - Technical Analysis: The hourly - level shows a short - term downward structure. Today, there was an increase in positions and a small decline. The short - term pressure is at 6630. It is recommended to take profit on short positions and wait for opportunities to re - enter after the geopolitical event [6]. Rubber - Logic: Tire demand is stable, but inventory pressure and high raw material prices lead to low stocking willingness. The supply is expected to increase significantly in the fourth quarter. The short - term contradiction is not obvious, and there is a certain bullish driving force due to continuous inventory reduction recently. The medium - term focus is on when the inventory build - up pressure in the peak season will appear [9]. - Technical Analysis: The daily - level shows a medium - term downward structure, and the hourly - level shows a short - term downward structure. Today, it fluctuated within the day without changing the downward structure. The short - term pressure is at 15450. It is recommended to wait and see on the hourly - level [9]. Synthetic Rubber - Logic: The high supply pressure of cis - butadiene rubber continues, but the supply - demand contradiction is gradually weakening. The main driving logic is the cost side of butadiene. The high supply and high inventory of butadiene have led to cost loosening and the price hitting a record low. The possible US action against Venezuela may bring short - term emotional disturbances [13]. - Technical Analysis: The daily - level shows a medium - term downward structure, and the hourly - level shows a short - term downward structure. Today, there was a large - volume increase in positions and a long - yin line hitting a record low. The short - term pressure has moved down to 10850. It is recommended to take profit on short positions and wait for opportunities to re - enter after the geopolitical event (cumulative decline of 13.5% since September entry) [13]. PX - Logic: High profits drive high - level operation, with sufficient supply and stable demand. The main logic is to follow the fluctuations of crude oil [16]. - Technical Analysis: The hourly - level shows a short - term upward structure. It fluctuated within the day today, and the short - term support is at 6560. It is recommended to wait and see on the hourly - level [19]. PTA - Logic: The supply - demand contradiction is not significant. The main logic is to follow the cost fluctuations of crude oil. It is recommended to take profit on short positions due to geopolitical risks [21]. - Technical Analysis: The hourly - level shows a short - term downward structure. It fluctuated within the day today, and the short - term pressure is at 4660. It is recommended to take profit on 15 - minute short positions [21]. PP - Logic: The commissioning of the Guangxi Petrochemical plant has increased the supply pressure, and the downstream demand recovery is limited. The supply - demand expectation is weak. It is necessary to pay attention to the downward pressure on the cost side brought by the decline of crude oil. It is recommended to take profit on short positions due to geopolitical risks [24]. - Technical Analysis: The hourly - level shows a short - term downward structure. It fluctuated within the day today, and the short - term pressure is at 6670. It is recommended to take profit on short positions on the hourly - cycle [24]. Methanol - Logic: High supply and high inventory continue to exert pressure, but as Iran enters the heating season, the short - term buying time is approaching. The possible US action against Venezuela may affect crude oil, and it is recommended to take profit on previous short positions to avoid risks [26]. - Technical Analysis: The daily - level and short - term show a downward structure. Today, there was an increase in positions and a new low. The short - term pressure is at 2210. It is recommended to take profit on unilateral hourly - cycle short positions (a decline of 14% since the end of July entry) [29]. PVC - Logic: The supply remains high, the domestic real - estate demand has collapsed, and the social inventory has reached a record high. There is no upward driving force. It is recommended to take profit on short positions due to geopolitical risks [30]. - Technical Analysis: The daily - level shows a medium - term downward structure, and the hourly - level shows a short - term downward structure. It fluctuated within the day today, and the short - term pressure is at 4760. It is recommended to take profit on unilateral hourly - cycle short positions [30]. Ethylene Glycol - Logic: The supply is at a high level, and the supply pressure increases with new capacity. Continuous inventory build - up has increased the downward pressure on the market. It is necessary to be vigilant against short - term geopolitical risks in crude oil. It is recommended to take profit on short positions due to geopolitical risks [32]. - Technical Analysis: The daily - level shows a medium - term downward structure, and the hourly - level shows a downward structure. Today, there was an increase in positions and a new low. The short - term pressure has moved down to 4050. It is recommended to take profit on unilateral hourly - cycle short positions (a decline of 8.8% since early September entry) [32]. Plastic - Logic: The commissioning of the Guangxi Petrochemical plant has increased the supply pressure, and the downstream demand in the peak season is weak. The supply - demand expectation is weak. It is necessary to be vigilant against short - term geopolitical risks in crude oil. It is recommended to take profit on short positions due to geopolitical risks [36]. - Technical Analysis: The daily - level shows a medium - term downward structure, and the hourly - level shows a downward structure. It fluctuated within the day today, and the short - term pressure is at 6990. It is recommended to take profit on hourly - cycle short positions [36]. Soda Ash - Logic: The high - supply and high - inventory pattern continues. The demand has further weakened due to the planned maintenance of 4 production lines in the glass industry on the weekend. The downward driving force of the fundamentals remains unchanged. The remaining hourly - cycle short positions should be held [40]. - Technical Analysis: The hourly - level shows a downward structure. Today, there was a large increase in positions and a long - yin line hitting a new low. The short - term pressure has moved down to 1245 [40]. Caustic Soda - Logic: The operating rate remains high, and the supply pressure increases with new capacity. The profit of downstream alumina is under pressure, and the demand growth is limited. The supply - demand driving force remains weak. It is recommended to wait and see on the hourly - level [41]. - Technical Analysis: The hourly - level shows a downward structure. Today, there was a decline in positions and a rebound that did not break through the pressure. The short - term pressure is at 2400 [41].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating There is no information provided regarding the report industry investment rating. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The rapeseed meal market is strong due to tight supply, and the upward trend may continue; the corn market is expected to turn stronger after the pressure of new grain listing is released; the hog market is weak and the downward trend is likely to continue; the palm oil market is under pressure from weak supply - demand in the origin and continues to decline; the cotton market is in high - level oscillation; the apple market experiences a high - level correction; the jujube market has a low - level rebound but the decline trend remains; the egg market shows high - level fluctuations with an unchanged upward trend; the sugar market breaks through and rises [1][2][3][5][7][9][11][13][15][17] 3. Summary by Variety Rapeseed Meal - The rapeseed meal main contract 2601 soars. Supply is tight as import costs rise, domestic rapeseed imports are low, and oil mills' rapeseed stocks are depleted. Technically, it is strong. The strategy is to go long on dips, with support at 2436 and resistance at 2500 [2] Corn - The corn main contract 2601 continues to rise. The pressure of new corn listing is released, and short - covering boosts the price. Technically, it is strong. The strategy is to go long with light positions, with support at 2128 and resistance at 2150 [3] Hog - The hog main contract 2601 continues to fall. Supply is abundant, and demand is weak. Technically, it is weak. The strategy is to short on rallies, with support at 11500 and resistance at 11955 [5] Palm Oil - The palm oil main contract 2601 continues to fall. Production in Malaysia and Indonesia is expected to increase, and domestic inventory accumulates. Technically, it is weak. The strategy is to short with light positions, with support at 8630 and resistance at 8780 [7] Cotton - The cotton main contract 2601 first declines then rises, oscillating at a high level. Sino - US economic and trade relations improve, and new cotton is being harvested. Downstream demand has limited improvement. Technically, it shows a sideways oscillation. The strategy is to hold long positions, with support at 13530 and resistance at 13625 [9] Apple - The apple main contract 2601 experiences a high - level correction. Fruit quality is polarized, and some long - positions take profits. The strategy is to close long positions, with support at 9030 and resistance at 9210 [11] Jujube - The jujube main contract 2601 rebounds at a low level. New jujubes are on the market, and inventory is high. Some short - positions take profits. Technically, the weakness remains. The strategy is to hold short positions, with support at 10120 and resistance at 10340 [13] Egg - The egg main contract 2512 first declines then rises, fluctuating at a high level. Traders' bottom - fishing and seasonal demand support the price. Technically, it is strong. The strategy is to go long with light positions, with support at 3130 and resistance at 3180 [15] Sugar - The Zhengzhou sugar main contract 2601 breaks through and rises. Import pressure weakens, and production increase may be less than expected. Technically, it is strong. The strategy is to hold long positions, with support at 5458 and resistance at 5538 [17]

Report Summary 1. Industry Investment Rating No investment rating for the industry is provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoint The agricultural product market shows a mixed trend. Pigs, palm oil, corn, and jujubes are in a downward or weakening state, while soybeans, cotton, apples, eggs, and sugar are in an upward or stable state, each influenced by different supply - demand and technical factors [1]. 3. Summary by Variety (1) Hog - Market situation: The main 2601 contract of hogs has fallen sharply and returned to a downward trend due to an increase in pig supply, a high total inventory in the breeding end, weak market demand, and strong alternative consumption [2]. - Technical analysis: The futures price has fallen below the 12,000 mark and is below the moving - average system. It is recommended to short lightly on rallies, with support at 11,700 and resistance at 12,000 [2]. (2) Soybean Meal - Market situation: The main 2601 contract of soybean meal has continued to rise. Sino - US economic and trade relations have improved, the cost of imported soybeans has increased, the downstream feed demand is in the peak season, and the oil mills have the intention to support prices [3]. - Technical analysis: The contract has broken through the 40 - day moving average upward, and it is recommended to hold light long positions, with support at 2,960 and resistance at 3,020 [3]. (3) Palm Oil - Market situation: The main 2601 contract of palm oil has continued to fall. The production in Malaysia and Indonesia has increased, the export growth has narrowed, the domestic inventory has accumulated, and the B50 biodiesel plan in Indonesia is uncertain [5]. - Technical analysis: The contract is below the moving - average system, and it is recommended to short lightly, with support at 8,758 and resistance at 8,900 [5]. (4) Cotton - Market situation: The main 2601 contract of cotton has adjusted slightly after rising first. Sino - US economic and trade relations have improved, but the ICE cotton futures price has fallen back. The domestic Xinjiang production area has had adverse weather, and the demand side has stable spinning mill start - up [7]. - Technical analysis: The contract has broken through the 40 - day moving average upward, and it is recommended to hold long positions, with support at 13,530 and resistance at 13,700 [7]. (5) Apple - Market situation: The main 2601 contract of apples has risen strongly. The expected output of new apples this year has decreased, the overall quality has declined, and the high - quality fruit is scarce. The market is worried about post - harvest storage quality and deliverable supply [9]. - Technical analysis: The contract is above the moving - average system, and it is recommended to hold light long positions, with support at 9,100 and resistance at 9,300 [9]. (6) Corn - Market situation: The main 2601 contract of corn has continued to decline in a volatile manner. Sino - US economic and trade relations have improved, which may lead to an increase in imported corn. The new domestic corn supply has increased seasonally, but there is also policy support [11]. - Technical analysis: The contract is below the moving - average system, and it is recommended to short lightly, with support at 2,100 and resistance at 2,120 [11]. (7) Jujube - Market situation: The main 2601 contract of jujubes has continued to fall sharply. New jujubes are about to be listed, and the inventory of old jujubes is high, resulting in sufficient supply [13]. - Technical analysis: The contract has reached a new low in more than three months, and it is recommended to hold short positions, with support at 10,170 and resistance at 10,400 [13]. (8) Egg - Market situation: The main 2512 contract of eggs has fluctuated narrowly after a sharp rise. The weather has cooled, which is conducive to egg storage and transportation. The demand for pickled products and holiday stock - up is expected to boost prices, and the supply - demand relationship is expected to improve [15]. - Technical analysis: The contract is above the 40 - day moving average, and it is recommended to hold light long positions, with support at 3,128 and resistance at 3,184 [15]. (9) Sugar - Market situation: The main 2601 contract of sugar has adjusted downward. The peak period of domestic sugar imports has passed, and the import pressure has decreased. However, the production of beet sugar in the north continues, and the production season of cane sugar is approaching, with an expected increase in production [17]. - Technical analysis: The contract has encountered resistance near the 40 - day moving average, but it is still in a rebound rhythm. It is recommended to hold long positions, with support at 5,468 and resistance at 5,500 [17].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating There is no information provided regarding the report's industry investment rating. 2. Core View of the Report The short - term macro is favorable, but the actual impact may be limited. The market is currently driven by short - term geopolitical factors, but the medium - term logic is the downward pressure from the excess supply in the fundamental supply - demand situation. It is necessary to pay attention to the time when the short - term geopolitical sentiment cools down and the market switches back to the fundamental logic [1][3]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs (1) Crude Oil - Logic: After the US Treasury Department's sanctions on two Russian oil companies last week, the crude oil market rebounded. However, the actual impact of the sanctions remains to be seen, and it is expected to be limited. The medium - term logic is the downward pressure due to the excess supply in the fundamental situation. The strategy is to hold short positions in the hourly cycle, with a stop - loss reference of 471 [3]. - Technical Analysis: The daily - level medium - term structure of crude oil is in a downward trend, and the hourly - level short - term structure is also in a downward trend. The upper short - term pressure is at the 471 level [3]. (2) Styrene (EB) - Logic: The rebound of crude oil last week had little impact on styrene. The supply - demand logic and expectations of styrene itself dominate the market. With the continuous commissioning of new plants and slow demand growth, the inventory of styrene has been accumulating, leading to a risk of price collapse. The strategy is to hold short positions [6]. - Technical Analysis: The hourly - level short - term structure of styrene is in a downward trend. The upper short - term pressure is at the 6630 level [6]. (3) Rubber - Logic: Tire demand is stable, but the inventory pressure and high raw material prices have led to low inventory - building willingness. There is a certain bullish driving force in the short term due to continuous inventory reduction, but attention should be paid to the inventory - building pressure in the peak season in the medium term. The strategy is to stop profit on short positions [9]. - Technical Analysis: The daily - level medium - term structure of rubber is in a downward trend, and the hourly - level short - term structure has turned bullish. The short - term support is at the 15240 level [9]. (4) Synthetic Rubber (BR) - Logic: The high supply pressure of butadiene rubber continues, and the inventory is accumulating. Attention should be paid to the continuous downward driving force brought by the loosening of the cost side. The strategy is to hold short positions, with a stop - profit reference of 11000 [13]. - Technical Analysis: The daily - level medium - term structure and the hourly - level short - term structure of butadiene rubber are both in a downward trend. The upper short - term pressure has moved down to the 11000 level [13]. (5) PX - Logic: The high profit of PX drives high - level production, and the supply is sufficient while the demand is stable. The main logic follows the cost drive of crude oil. Affected by the notice of a polyester industry development symposium, the market traded the anti - involution sentiment in the afternoon. The strategy is to wait and see [16]. - Technical Analysis: The hourly - level short - term structure of PX is in an upward trend. The lower support is at the 6570 level [16]. (6) PTA - Logic: The supply - demand contradiction of PTA is not significant. The main logic follows the cost drive of crude oil. Affected by the notice of a polyester industry development symposium, the market traded the anti - involution sentiment in the afternoon. The strategy is to wait and see [20]. - Technical Analysis: The hourly - level short - term structure of PTA is in an upward trend. The lower short - term support is at the 4580 level [20]. (7) PP - Logic: After the commissioning of the Guangxi Petrochemical plant, the high supply pressure of PP remains. The demand recovery in the peak season is limited, and the supply - demand expectation is weak. Attention should be paid to the downward pressure on the cost side brought by the decline of crude oil. The strategy is to hold the short positions replenished yesterday, with a stop - loss reference of 6740 [25]. - Technical Analysis: The hourly - level short - term structure of PP is in a downward trend. The upper short - term pressure is at the 6740 level [25]. (8) Methanol - Logic: Due to seasonal factors, there is a certain logic for going long on the methanol 01 contract in the future, but the short - term long - entry time has not arrived. The domestic supply and demand have both weakened, and the port inventory is still at a historical high. Attention should be paid to the technical signal of whether the market can break through the short - term pressure level and the time of gas restrictions in Iran. The strategy is to hold the remaining short positions in the hourly cycle cautiously, with a stop - profit at the 2300 level. For the hedging strategy, methanol can be used as a long - position allocation after breaking through the pressure level [27][29]. - Technical Analysis: The daily - level medium - term and short - term structures of methanol are both in a downward trend. The upper short - term pressure has moved down to the 2300 level [29]. (9) PVC - Logic: The weekly production has decreased slightly due to maintenance, but the overall supply of PVC remains high. The domestic real - estate demand has collapsed, and the social inventory has accumulated to the highest level in history. The high - production, high - inventory, and weak - demand structure makes it difficult for the price to rise. The strategy is to hold short positions [31]. - Technical Analysis: The daily - level medium - term and hourly - level short - term structures of PVC are both in a downward trend. The upper short - term pressure is at the 4800 level [31]. (10) Ethylene Glycol (EG) - Logic: The supply of ethylene glycol remains high, and the inventory has started to accumulate. The previous support from low inventory has disappeared, and the supply - demand weakening expectation is being realized. The strategy is to wait and see [34]. - Technical Analysis: The daily - level medium - term structure of ethylene glycol is in a downward trend, and the hourly - level short - term structure is in an upward trend. The lower short - term support is at the 4065 level [34]. (11) Plastic - Logic: After the commissioning of the Guangxi Petrochemical plant, the supply pressure of plastic has increased. The demand in the peak season is weak, and the supply - demand expectation is weak. Attention should be paid to the cost - side collapse logic brought by the decline of crude oil. The strategy is to wait and see [39]. - Technical Analysis: The daily - level medium - term structure of plastic is in a downward trend, and the hourly - level short - term structure is in an upward trend. The lower short - term support is at the 6955 level [39]. (12) Soda Ash - Logic: The high - supply and high - inventory situation of soda ash continues to worsen. The demand from the glass industry is unlikely to improve significantly, and there is no substantial policy intervention on the supply side. The fundamental downward driving force remains unchanged. The strategy is to hold the remaining short positions in the hourly cycle [43]. - Technical Analysis: The hourly - level short - term structure of soda ash is in a downward trend. The upper short - term pressure is at the 1260 level [43]. (13) Caustic Soda - Logic: The production of caustic soda remains at a high level, and the supply pressure has increased due to the commissioning of new plants. The profit of the downstream alumina industry is under pressure, and the demand growth is limited. The supply - demand driving force is still weak under the high - inventory situation. The strategy is to wait and see after taking profit before the holiday [45]. - Technical Analysis: The hourly - level short - term structure of caustic soda is in a downward trend. The upper short - term pressure is at the 2400 level [45].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The agricultural products sector shows mixed performance. Soybean meal and apples are rising, while palm oil is falling, and other products have different trends based on their respective supply - demand factors [1]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs 3.1 Agricultural Products Sector Overview - Soybean meal has a strong rise. The preliminary consensus of Sino - US economic and trade consultations improves the outlook for US soybean export demand, pushing up CBOT soybean prices and increasing domestic import costs. However, the rising domestic soybean meal inventory may limit its upward space. - Apples have a sharp rise at a high level. New apple production cuts and high prices of high - quality spot apples boost futures prices. - Oils are weak, especially palm oil which has a significant drop due to increased production in producing areas, slow export, decreased domestic import costs, concentrated arrivals, and rising inventory [1]. 3.2 Variety Strategy Tracking 3.2.1 Soybean Meal - The main 2601 contract of soybean meal is strongly rising, driven by increased import costs. Sino - US consultations ease trade tensions and improve the outlook for US soybean demand, pushing up CBOT soybean prices and domestic procurement costs. But the rising inventory may resist its upward space. Technically, it shows a strong feature, and the strategy is to go long lightly on dips. The support is 2932, and the resistance is 2986 [2][3]. 3.2.2 Apples - The main 2601 contract of apples is surging at a high level, supported by production cuts and strong spot prices. The estimated new - season apple production drops by about 8%. Spot prices in various regions are strong, driving futures prices up. The strategy is to go long lightly. The support is 9000, and the resistance is 9250 [4]. 3.2.3 Corn - The main 2601 contract of corn rebounds after a previous decline, supported by bargain - hunting. New grain harvest in domestic main producing areas speeds up, and there is demand for replenishment. However, seasonal supply pressure exists, and potential increased imports may limit its movement. Technically, it is still in a weak state, and the strategy is to go short lightly. The support is 2110, and the resistance is 2130 [6]. 3.2.4 Red Dates - The main 2601 contract of red dates fluctuates slightly after a sharp decline. New jujube listing and high inventory of old jujubes put pressure on prices. Technically, it is in a weak state, and the strategy is to sell on rallies. The support is 10300, and the resistance is 10560 [8]. 3.2.5 Eggs - The main 2512 contract of eggs adjusts downward after a continuous rebound. Cooling weather and low prices support spot prices, but high egg - laying hen inventory limits the rebound space. Technically, it is still strong, and the strategy is to hold long positions. The support is 3062, and the resistance is 3130 [10]. 3.2.6 Live Pigs - The main 2601 contract of live pigs fluctuates downward with limited rebound. Although consumer demand increases and supply pressure eases temporarily, high total inventory leads to a supply - surplus situation. The strategy is to close long positions and operate short - term. The support is 12120, and the resistance is 12430 [12]. 3.2.7 Cotton - The main 2601 contract of cotton fluctuates narrowly with an upward trend. Sino - US consultations boost market sentiment, but new cotton listing increases inventory. Spinning mills'开机意愿 remains stable. Technically, it is strong, and the strategy is to hold long positions. The support is 13550, and the resistance is 13670 [14]. 3.2.8 Palm Oil - The main 2601 contract of palm oil drops significantly due to increased production in Malaysia and slow export. Domestic inventory accumulates, suppressing prices. Technically, it is weak, and the strategy is to go short lightly. The support is 8940, and the resistance is 9080 [16]. 3.2.9 Sugar - The main 2601 contract of sugar rebounds sharply as the peak of sugar imports passes, reducing supply pressure. Sugar prices near production costs weaken the downward momentum. Technically, it turns strong, and the strategy is to go long lightly on dips. The support is 5450, and the resistance is 5502 [18].