Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No investment rating is provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints - **Methanol**: The current situation of weak reality and strong expectation continues. Although there is a reversal logic in the fourth - quarter, the 01 contract is over - valued, lacking the value of bottom - fishing on the left side. The decline since August has not ended, and the strategy is to hold existing short positions and consider short - term shorting for non - participants [1]. - **PTA**: With the cost shift down driven by the expected oversupply of crude oil in the fourth quarter and the weakening supply - demand situation of PTA itself, the fundamentals are pessimistic, and a bearish strategy is recommended [2][3]. - **European Line**: Due to the over - capacity of European line this year and the lack of upward drive, the 10 - contract has fallen deeply, and the 12 - contract may repeat the decline. The idea is to short the 12 - contract after it breaks out of the shock [4]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Logic Analysis - **Methanol**: Current domestic production is at a high level year - on - year, imports have increased significantly, downstream olefin comprehensive operating rate has declined, and port inventories are still accumulating. The 01 contract has a large premium over the spot, and the fall since August continues. Wait for signs of improvement in supply and demand before considering long positions [1]. - **PTA**: There is a clear downward drive from the cost side of crude oil, and its own supply - demand is expected to weaken, with large inventory accumulation pressure under high supply and weak demand [2][3]. - **European Line**: The near - month 10 - contract has collapsed with the spot price, and the far - month 12 - contract is in a shock pattern. The 10 - contract has limited short - selling value, and the 12 - contract may fall in the future [4]. 3.2 Weekly Fundamentals - **Methanol**: As of September 17, port inventory was 155.78 million tons, up 0.48% month - on - month and 56.06% year - on - year. The weekly coal - to - methanol profit was 600 yuan/ton, total production was 181.13 million tons, down 5.33% month - on - month and 1.54% year - on - year. The device capacity utilization rate dropped to 79.9%, and the 01 - contract basis was 108 yuan/ton [5]. - **PTA**: As of September 18, the domestic PTA operating rate was 77.29%, down 2.34% month - on - month and 4% year - on - year. The weekly production was 143.08 million tons, up 3.09% month - on - month and 4.09% year - on - year. The social inventory was 203.1 million tons, up 0.3 million tons month - on - month. The demand side showed a decline in the operating load and order days of the Jiangsu - Zhejiang weaving industry [6]. 3.3 Technical Analysis - **Methanol 2601 contract**: It is in a downward structure on the hourly cycle, with short - term pressure at the 2410 level [7]. - **PTA2601 contract**: It is in a downward structure on the hourly cycle, with short - term pressure at the 4690 level [7]. - **European Line 2510 contract**: It is in a downward structure on the hourly cycle, with short - term pressure at the 1130 level. The 2512 contract is in a shock structure, waiting for the convergence triangle to choose a direction [7]. 3.4 Strategy - **Methanol 2601 contract**: Hold existing short positions and consider short - term shorting on rebounds [10]. - **PTA2601 contract**: Hold existing short positions and consider shorting on rebounds [10]. - **European Line EC2510 contract**: Do not chase short positions. Wait for the 12 - contract to break the lower edge of the convergence triangle and then consider shorting [11].

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. Core Views - The rebound of soybean meal futures prices is limited, and they may fluctuate at a low level in the future. Palm oil prices have broken down and are expected to remain weak. Egg prices have limited rebound and may decline again [1]. Summary by Sections 1. Soybean Meal Rebound Limited - In the third week of September, soybean meal futures prices dropped significantly due to expectations of increased domestic soybean imports and high oil - mill压榨量. But at the weekend, some short - sellers closed positions, and spot market support led to a low - level rebound, though the space is limited [2]. - Imported soybeans are arriving in large quantities, with high supply and increasing inventory. In August 2025, China's soybean imports reached 12.28 million tons, a 1.2% year - on - year increase. From January to August, the cumulative imports were 73.31 million tons, a 4% year - on - year increase. The expected arrivals in September, October, and November are 10.3 million, 9 million, and 7.5 million tons respectively. As of the end of the 37th week of 2025, domestic soybean meal inventory reached 1.17 million tons, a 0.86% week - on - week increase [3]. - Oil mills are urging提货, and the提货量 of soybean meal has returned to a high level. As of September 12, the weekly inventory提货量 of soybean meal rose to 1.6001 million tons, a 7.14% week - on - week increase. Feed enterprise inventory days reached 9.22 days, a 10.39% year - on - year increase [3][4]. - The cost of imported soybeans is high, and the downstream demand for soybean meal may be strong in the near term but weak in the long term. Currently, the demand is supported by high pig inventory, but national policies to regulate pig production may reduce future demand [6]. - Technically, the main 2601 contract of soybean meal has rebounded at a low level, standing above the 5 - day moving average, but the 10 - day moving average may pose strong resistance [7]. - For the 2601 contract of soybean meal, the strategy is to go short on rallies, with a target range of 3040 - 3050, a defense range of 3070 - 3080, a first target of 3000 - 3010, and a second target of 2980 - 2990 [8][9]. 2. Palm Oil Breaks Down - In the third week of September, palm oil futures prices broke down. The decline was due to falling international crude oil prices, an unclear US bio - fuel policy, a bearish MPOB monthly report, weak Malaysian palm oil exports, and increased domestic imports and inventory [9]. - Malaysian palm oil exports have weakened, and production is still variable. In the first half of September, production decreased by 8.05% month - on - month due to rainfall, but there is still an expectation of increased production. The export data from different institutions are inconsistent, showing overall weakness [12]. - The US bio - fuel policy is unclear, and the decline of related soybean oil prices has dragged down palm oil prices. The proposed re - allocation of bio - fuel blending obligations by the US EPA has increased uncertainty [13]. - Malaysia has raised the reference price of palm oil, and India's peak import period has passed, which may lead to a decline in Malaysian palm oil exports. China's palm oil imports have increased month - on - month, and inventory has also risen. As of September 12, 2025, the national commercial inventory of palm oil was 641,500 tons, a 3.58% month - on - month and 24.92% year - on - year increase [13][15]. - Technically, the main 2601 contract of palm oil has fallen below the 40 - day moving average, with a continuous decline in MACD close to the zero - axis and a continuation of the green column, indicating a weak trend and a risk of further decline [16]. - For the 2601 contract of palm oil, the strategy is to focus on short - selling, with a target range of 9336 - 9360, a defense range of 9380 - 9390, a first target of 9280 - 9300, and a second target of 9250 - 9260 [17]. 3. Egg Rebound is Weak - In the third week of September, egg futures prices rebounded but were blocked and then declined. The initial rebound was due to pre - holiday stocking demand, but as stocking neared completion, demand support weakened, while supply increased due to high egg - laying hen inventory, improved laying rates, and the release of cold - storage eggs [19]. - Egg - laying hen inventory is high, resulting in large supply pressure. As of August 2025, the inventory of laying hens was 1.317 billion, a 2% month - on - month and 10% year - on - year increase. Although there is an expectation of a slight decline in September, the inventory is still expected to be over 1.3 billion [20]. - Under high supply pressure, the number of culled hens by the breeding end has increased. As of the week of September 18, the total number of culled hens was 576,200, a 2.05% week - on - week increase [22]. - Egg industry inventory has increased. As of September 18, the production - link inventory was 0.50 days, a 11.11% week - on - week increase, and the circulation - link inventory was 0.97 days, a 22.78% week - on - week increase [23]. - The decline in cost has put pressure on egg prices. Feed costs account for over 80% of egg - laying hen breeding costs, and the prices of corn and soybean meal have dropped, leading to a decline in comprehensive breeding costs [24]. - Technically, the main 2511 contract of eggs rebounded above the short - term moving average but lacked upward momentum, and the 40 - day moving average posed strong resistance [26]. - For the 2511 contract of eggs, the strategy is to go short on rallies, with a target range of 3148 - 3170, a defense range of 3190 - 3200, a first target of 3082 - 3100, and a second target of 3050 - 3070 [27].

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. 2. Core Viewpoints - Overall, the report analyzes multiple chemical products, with most showing a bearish or neutral outlook. The main influencing factors include supply - demand fundamentals, cost drivers, and geopolitical events. For crude oil, despite short - term geopolitical support, the medium - term supply surplus is likely, so a bearish view is maintained [1][2]. - For other products like styrene, rubber, and synthetic rubber, factors such as high inventory, weak demand, and cost pressure contribute to their bearish or neutral stances [5][8][11]. 3. Summary by Product Crude Oil - Logic: After a significant decline last week, a rebound on Friday night was related to geopolitical events. However, considering OPEC+ production increase and seasonal weakening of US demand, a supply surplus is likely in the second half of the year. The strategy is based on the bearish medium - term fundamentals [1][2]. - Technical Analysis: The daily - level shows a medium - term downward structure, and the hourly - level shows a short - term oscillating structure. The strategy is to hold short positions at the hourly level [2]. Styrene (EB) - Logic: The weekly fundamentals have not improved significantly. High profits, high production, and high inventory persist, and new device production in September - October will add to the supply pressure. The bearish view remains [5]. - Technical Analysis: The hourly - level shows a short - term oscillating structure. After a long - negative break today, the 15 - minute cycle is bearish with a pressure level at 7100. The strategy is to look for short - selling opportunities at the 15 - minute cycle [5]. Rubber - Logic: Overseas raw material prices have fallen, weakening cost support. Although inventory is decreasing, the year - on - year high pressure remains. The demand is neutral with no major contradictions [8]. - Technical Analysis: The daily - level shows a medium - term oscillating structure, and the hourly - level shows a downward structure. After a long - negative break today, the short - term downward trend is confirmed. The strategy is to hold short positions at the hourly level [8]. Synthetic Rubber (BR) - Logic: The supply - demand of synthetic rubber itself has no major contradictions. The main concern is the cost of butadiene, with increasing port inventory and future supply pressure. The bearish view is based on cost [11]. - Technical Analysis: The daily - level shows a medium - term oscillating/downward structure, and the hourly - level shows a short - term downward structure. After a new low today, the strategy is to hold short positions at the hourly level with a stop - profit at 11730 [14]. PX - Logic: PX profit has recovered, and the operating rate has increased. The demand recovery in the polyester peak season is slower than expected. The main driver is the cost of crude oil [16][18]. - Technical Analysis: The hourly - level shows a short - term oscillating structure. The 15 - minute cycle has turned bearish with a pressure level at 6760. The strategy is to look for short - selling opportunities at the 15 - minute cycle [18]. PTA - Logic: PTA supply has increased, and demand remains high but with weak terminal demand. The main driver is the cost of crude oil [19]. - Technical Analysis: The hourly - level shows a short - term oscillating structure. The strategy is to hold short positions at the hourly level [19]. PP - Logic: Demand has improved slightly in the peak season, but supply pressure has increased due to new device production. The strategy is to be cautious about short - selling after the price decline [22][23]. - Technical Analysis: The hourly - level shows a short - term oscillating structure. The 15 - minute cycle has turned bearish with a pressure level at 6975. The strategy is to look for short - selling opportunities at the 15 - minute cycle [23]. Methanol - Logic: High operating rate and high imports have led to inventory pressure. Although downstream MTO profit has improved, the bearish view remains [26]. - Technical Analysis: The daily - level shows a medium - term downward/oscillating structure, and the hourly - level shows a short - term downward structure. After a new low today, the strategy is to hold the remaining short positions at the hourly level with a stop - profit at 2435 [26]. PVC - Logic: High production and high inventory persist due to high - profit烧碱 and weak domestic demand. The fundamentals are under pressure [29]. - Technical Analysis: The daily - level shows a medium - term upward structure, and the hourly - level shows a short - term upward structure. After a long - negative break today, the strategy is to wait and see at the hourly level [29]. Ethylene Glycol (EG) - Logic: The operating rate of MEG and downstream has little change, and inventory is slightly decreasing. However, future supply pressure from new devices should be noted [30]. - Technical Analysis: The daily - level shows a medium - term oscillating/downward structure, and the hourly - level shows a short - term downward structure. After a decline today, the strategy is to hold short positions at the hourly level with a stop - profit at 4335 [30]. Plastic - Logic: PE operating rate has declined, but new capacity has been put into production. Demand has improved slightly in the peak season but is still below expectations. Further decline depends on the weakening of crude oil [33]. - Technical Analysis: The daily - level shows a medium - term oscillating/downward structure, and the hourly - level shows a short - term downward structure. After a decline today, the strategy is to hold short positions at the hourly level with a stop - loss at 7270 [33]. Soda Ash - Logic: Supply has increased slightly, and the high - production and high - inventory situation remains. After a price decline, short - selling should be cautious, and there is no upward driver in the short term [37]. - Technical Analysis: The hourly - level shows an upward structure. After a long - negative break today, the 15 - minute cycle has turned bearish with a pressure level at 1320. The strategy is to look for short - selling opportunities at the 15 - minute cycle [37]. Caustic Soda - Logic: Supply of liquid chlorine is sufficient, and demand from alumina and other industries has recovered. Inventory has decreased, and the short - term fundamentals have improved. The medium - term focus is on device maintenance and demand improvement [40]. - Technical Analysis: The hourly - level shows a downward structure. After a long - negative break today, the strategy is to hold short positions at the hourly level with a stop - profit at 2625 [40].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the report 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The energy and chemical sector is influenced by geopolitical factors and fundamental supply - demand situations. Most products in the sector are recommended to hold short - positions, mainly due to the high probability of supply - demand surplus in the second half of the year, especially for crude oil. Short - term geopolitical disturbances should not be over - emphasized, and investment decisions should be based on the mid - term fundamental situation [1][2] 3. Summary by Related Catalogs (1) Crude Oil - **Logic**: After a significant decline last week, a rebound on Friday night was related to geopolitical events. However, considering OPEC+ production increases and weakening US demand, the probability of supply - demand surplus in the second half of the year is high. The mid - term bearish view based on the fundamental surplus situation should be maintained [2] - **Technical Analysis**: The daily - level is in a mid - term decline structure, and the hourly - level is in a short - term oscillation structure. The upper limit of the oscillation range is around 491. There is an opportunity to short at high prices near the upper limit of the range, with a stop - loss reference of 491 [2] - **Strategy**: Hold short - positions at the hourly level, and try short - selling at the upper limit of the range at the end of the day, with a stop - loss of 491 [2] (2) Benzene Ethylene (EB) - **Logic**: The weekly fundamentals of benzene ethylene have not improved significantly. High profits, high production, and high inventory situations persist, and new device launches in September - October will increase supply pressure. The downward drive of fundamentals remains [4] - **Technical Analysis**: The hourly - level is in a short - term decline structure. The rebound today did not exceed the short - term pressure of 7105, and the decline path remains unchanged [7] - **Strategy**: Hold the remaining short - positions at the hourly cycle, with a final stop - profit reference of 7105 [7] (3) Rubber - **Logic**: Overseas raw material prices have declined, weakening cost support. Although inventory is decreasing, the year - on - year high inventory pressure still exists. The fundamentals are currently neutral [9] - **Technical Analysis**: The daily - level is in a mid - term oscillation structure, and the hourly - level is facing a decline structure. After a rebound today, pay attention to the opportunity to short if it fails to break through the hourly - level pressure of 16050 at night [9] - **Strategy**: Stop - loss the 15 - minute short - positions, and then pay attention to short - selling opportunities if it fails to break through the hourly - level pressure [9] (4) Synthetic Rubber (BR) - **Logic**: The supply - demand of synthetic rubber itself has no major contradictions. The main concern is the cost side, especially butadiene. With the arrival of ship cargoes and future capacity expansion, the cost side is bearish [12] - **Technical Analysis**: The daily - level is in a mid - term oscillation/decline structure, and the hourly - level is in a short - term decline structure. The rebound today did not exceed the short - term pressure of 11760, and there is potential for further decline [15] - **Strategy**: Hold short - positions at the hourly cycle, with a stop - profit reference of 11760 [15] (5) PX - **Logic**: PX profits have recovered, and the operating rate has increased. The demand recovery is slower than expected. The main factor to watch is the cost - side drive from crude oil [18] - **Technical Analysis**: The hourly - level short - term decline structure is being tested. Pay attention to the 15 - minute upper limit pressure of 6770 [20] - **Strategy**: Hold the remaining short - positions at the hourly cycle [20] (6) PTA - **Logic**: PTA supply has increased, and demand is stable. The terminal operating rate in the peak season is weaker than expected. The main factor to watch is the cost - side drive from crude oil [22] - **Technical Analysis**: The hourly - level is in a short - term decline structure. The upper short - term pressure is 4700 [22] - **Strategy**: Hold short - positions at the hourly cycle, with a stop - profit reference of 4700 [22] (7) PP - **Logic**: Demand has improved slightly in the peak season, but supply pressure has increased due to new capacity launches. Pay attention to the cost - side collapse logic [25] - **Technical Analysis**: The hourly - level is in a short - term decline structure. The upper short - term pressure is 6985 [26] - **Strategy**: Hold short - positions at the hourly cycle [26] (8) Methanol - **Logic**: High operating rates and high imports have led to high inventory pressure. Although downstream MTO profits have improved, the bearish fundamental pattern remains [30] - **Technical Analysis**: The daily - level is in a mid - term decline/oscillation structure, and the short - term is in a decline structure. The rebound today did not exceed the short - term pressure of 2435 [30] - **Strategy**: Hold the remaining short - positions at the hourly cycle cautiously, with a final stop - profit reference of 2435 [30] (9) PVC - **Logic**: High production and high inventory patterns persist due to high caustic soda profits and weak downstream demand [31] - **Technical Analysis**: The daily - level is in a mid - term rise structure, and the hourly - level is in a short - term decline structure. The upper short - term pressure is 4930 [33] - **Strategy**: Hold short - positions at the hourly cycle [33] (10) EG - **Logic**: Current supply - demand contradictions are not significant, but supply pressure may increase in the future. Pay attention to the impact of new capacity launches [34] - **Technical Analysis**: The daily - level is in a mid - term oscillation/decline structure, and the hourly - level is in a decline structure. The short - term pressure is 4335 [34] - **Strategy**: Hold short - positions at the hourly cycle, with a stop - profit reference of 4335 [34] (11) Plastic - **Logic**: New capacity has increased supply pressure, and demand recovery in the peak season is limited. Further decline requires the cost - side crude oil to continue to weaken [36] - **Technical Analysis**: The daily - level is in a mid - term oscillation/decline structure, and the hourly - level is in a decline structure. The upper short - term pressure is 7270 [36] - **Strategy**: Hold short - positions at the hourly cycle, with a stop - loss reference of 7270 [36] (12) Soda Ash - **Logic**: Supply is continuously increasing, and the high - production and high - inventory pattern remains. Although the previous over - valuation has been corrected, there is no upward drive in the short term [39] - **Technical Analysis**: The hourly - level is in a decline structure. The rebound today did not exceed the pressure, and the decline structure remains unchanged. The upper short - term pressure is 1320 [39] - **Strategy**: Hold short - positions at the hourly cycle [39] (13) Caustic Soda - **Logic**: Supply is abundant, but demand has improved, and inventory pressure has been relieved. Mid - term attention should be paid to the impact of device maintenance and peak - season demand [43] - **Technical Analysis**: The hourly - level is in a decline structure. The daily oscillation did not change the decline structure. The upper short - term pressure is 2625 [43] - **Strategy**: Hold short - positions at the hourly cycle, with a stop - profit reference of 2625 [43]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The agricultural products sector shows a mixed trend, with some products rising and others falling. For example, egg prices are rising, while soybean meal and corn prices are falling [1]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs 3.1 Agricultural Products Sector Overview - Soybean meal prices have dropped significantly due to reduced concerns about tight soybean supply in the fourth - quarter after Sino - US economic and trade talks, and increased production and inventory from high - pressure oil mill operations [1]. - Corn prices have also fallen sharply as new corn is about to be concentratedly launched, leading to a large number of long - position liquidations [1]. - Egg prices have risen strongly because of the demand for double - festival stocking and the reduction of production capacity through increased culling of old laying hens [1]. 3.2 Variety Strategy Tracking 3.2.1 Soybean Meal - The main 2601 contract of soybean meal has declined significantly. The Sino - US economic and trade talks may improve US soybean exports to China, alleviating supply concerns. High domestic oil mill crushing volumes have increased inventory, pressuring prices. The strategy is to hold short positions lightly, with support at 3030 and resistance at 3080 [2][3]. 3.2.2 Eggs - The main 2511 contract of eggs has risen strongly due to double - festival stocking demand. However, high egg - laying hen inventory and the inflow of low - price cold - storage eggs may limit the upside. The strategy is to close short positions and go long lightly near support, with support at 3070 and resistance at 3200 [4]. 3.2.3 Palm Oil - The main 2601 contract of palm oil has risen steadily. The increase in Malaysian palm oil exports and the decrease in production, along with domestic double - festival stocking demand, support prices. The strategy is to go long lightly, with support at 9310 and resistance at 9446 [6]. 3.2.4 Soybean Oil - The main 2601 contract of soybean oil has risen steadily. Higher external CBOT soybean oil prices and increased domestic double - festival stocking demand boost prices, despite high supply. The strategy is to go long lightly, with support at 8342 and resistance at 8400 [8]. 3.2.5 Apples - The main 2601 contract of apples has slightly adjusted after a strong rise last week. Positive factors such as active procurement in the western region, reduced seasonal fruit supply, and double - festival stocking support prices. The strategy is to go long lightly, with support at 8239 and resistance at 8400 [11]. 3.2.6 Red Dates - The main 2601 contract of red dates has dropped significantly due to lower - than - expected demand. High inventory and weak terminal demand during the double - festival stocking season pressure prices. The strategy is to close long positions and go short lightly, with support at 10700 and resistance at 10950 [12][14]. 3.2.7 White Sugar - The main 2601 contract of white sugar has rebounded steadily. Higher external prices, double - festival stocking demand, and low inventory support prices. The strategy is to go long lightly, with support at 5540 and resistance at 5594 [15]. 3.2.8 Corn - The main 2511 contract of corn has dropped significantly. The upcoming large - scale launch of new corn and long - position liquidations have led to price declines. The strategy is to go short lightly, with support at 2150 and resistance at 2188 [17]. 3.2.9 Cotton - The main 2601 contract of cotton has rebounded steadily. Although there is an expectation of increased new cotton production, supply is tight before new cotton is launched. The strategy is to close short positions and pay attention to whether the 10 - day moving average can be broken, with support at 13855 and resistance at 13985 [20]. 3.2.10 Live Pigs - The main 2511 contract of live pigs has rebounded slightly after a decline. High supply in September and weak demand, except for potential double - festival stocking, limit price increases. The strategy is to hold short positions, with support at 13120 and resistance at 13350 [21][23].

Report Industry Investment Rating There is no information provided in the content about the report industry investment rating. Core Viewpoints The report analyzes the mid - term and short - term structures of various energy and chemical products, and provides corresponding trading strategies based on the fundamental and technical analysis of each product. The overall market shows a complex situation with different trends for different products, and many products are affected by factors such as supply - demand relationship, cost, and geopolitical events [1][2]. Summary by Product Crude Oil - Logic: OPEC+ starts the second - stage 165 barrels/day复产 plan. In October, it will increase production by 137,000 barrels/day. The market has a large surplus expectation after the first - stage复产, and the second - stage复产 will add to the pressure with the demand shifting from peak to off - peak season. Geopolitical events and sanctions expectations bring short - term support, but the fundamental trend is downward [2]. - Technical Analysis: Mid - term and short - term downward structures. The intraday trend is a bit subtle, testing the short - term pressure of 489 (11 contract). It is recommended to observe for one more day. The hourly - level short positions can be held cautiously [2]. Styrene (EB) - Logic: The weekly start - up rate has a slight increase, but there are unplanned maintenance. The downstream profit is poor, the start - up rates of ABS and EPS decline, and the port inventory continues to accumulate, which is a short - term pressure point. After the autumn maintenance peak, there will be new device put - into - production pressure in September - October, and the supply - demand situation is weak. There is also the risk of inventory over - filling [5]. - Technical Analysis: The hourly - level short - term downward structure is being tested. After a sharp fall, it is in a normal repair period. It has reached above the short - term pressure of 7040 (10 contract). The remaining short positions can be held cautiously, with the final stop - profit at 7180 [5]. Rubber - Logic: Seasonal factors are strong, but there is no weather speculation on the supply side. Only short - term typhoons and rainy seasons make raw material prices strong. The import volume in August increases both year - on - year and month - on - month, with a continuous increase expectation. The start - up rate of semi - steel tires decreases significantly, while that of all - steel tires remains high. The current fundamentals are neutral [7]. - Technical Analysis: Mid - term oscillation structure at the daily level, and the hourly - level upward structure is being tested. After an increase in positions and a fall below the support of 15880, the short - term upward trend is under threat. It is close to the lower limit of the August range. It is recommended to wait and see at the hourly level and look for short - selling opportunities on the 15 - minute chart after a rebound fails to break through the pressure of 16000 [7]. Synthetic Rubber (BR) - Logic: There is no major contradiction in the supply - demand of styrene - butadiene rubber. The start - up rate and output of some devices decrease due to maintenance, and the inventory of downstream semi - steel tires also drops. The main contradiction lies in the cost of butadiene. With the arrival of a large number of ships, the port inventory has increased significantly, ending the previous tight situation. In the medium term, the supply pressure of butadiene will gradually appear, and the upstream crude oil will also face surplus pressure [10]. - Technical Analysis: Mid - term oscillation/downward structure at the daily level, and short - term downward structure at the hourly level. Since August 22, the position has increased by 97%. After an increase in positions and a break - through today, it may end the oscillation and turn to a downward trend. The short - term pressure is at 11760. The 15 - minute short positions can be held at the hourly level, with the stop - profit at 11760 [13]. PX - Logic: The profit of PX is restored, and the start - up rate is increasing after the maintenance peak. The domestic PX load is 83%, and the Asian PX load is 75%. The demand - side device maintenance and复产 co - exist, but the overall start - up rate of PTA has declined, and the previous inventory reduction has slowed down. The short - term fundamentals have weakened, and more attention should be paid to the cost of crude oil [17]. - Technical Analysis: The hourly - level short - term downward structure is being tested. The intraday trend is oscillatory, and the small - cycle should pay attention to the pressure at 6770 on the 15 - minute chart. The remaining short positions can be held [17]. PTA - Logic: It lacks its own driving force, and attention should be paid to the cost collapse logic of crude oil [21]. - Technical Analysis: Hourly - level short - term downward structure. The intraday oscillation does not change the downward trend. The short - term pressure is at 4700. The short positions can be held, with the stop - profit at 4700 [21]. PP - Logic: The supply - side start - up rate increases, and new devices will be put into production. The demand enters the peak season, and the supply - demand pressure is not obvious. Attention should be paid to the cost collapse logic [22]. - Technical Analysis: Hourly - level short - term downward structure. The intraday trend is oscillatory. The short - term pressure at the hourly level is 7090, which is relatively far. Attention can be paid to the 6990 pressure on the 15 - minute short - cycle. If it breaks through, partial stop - profit can be made [22]. Methanol - Logic: The domestic and overseas start - up rates are high, and the arrival pressure in September is large. The port inventory continues to accumulate, reaching a record high in the past 5 years. The downstream demand is weak, and the short - term pressure is great [24]. - Technical Analysis: Mid - term downward/oscillation and short - term downward structures. After an increase in positions and a fall, the 15 - minute cycle turns down. Attention should be paid to whether the hourly - level downward slope returns. The short - term pressure is at 2435. The remaining short positions can be held cautiously, with the final stop - profit at 2435 [24]. PVC - Logic: After the previous maintenance, the start - up rate remains at a high level of 75%. The comprehensive profit of chlor - alkali is strong, so the supply is difficult to reduce. The inventory continues to accumulate to the highest level in the same period of history. Before the real estate bottoms out, the demand is difficult to improve, and the fundamentals are bearish [27]. - Technical Analysis: Mid - term upward structure at the daily level and short - term downward structure at the hourly level. The intraday oscillation does not change the downward trend. The short - term pressure is at 4930. The short positions can be held [27]. Ethylene Glycol (EG) - Logic: The port inventory is at a low level in recent years, so the fundamentals are relatively strong compared with other energy and chemical products. But with the increase in domestic start - up rate, it is expected to enter the inventory - accumulation cycle. The short - term situation is strong, but the medium - term expectation is bearish [30]. - Technical Analysis: Mid - term oscillation/downward and short - term downward structures. The intraday oscillation, but the closing price hits a new low, and the short - term decline may accelerate. The short - term pressure is at 4375. The short positions can be held, with the stop - loss at 4375 [30]. Plastic - Logic: The start - up rate of PE is stable, and the demand improvement in the peak season is slow. The fundamental driving force is general [32]. - Technical Analysis: Mid - term oscillation/downward and short - term downward structures. The intraday trend is oscillatory. The short - term pressure at the hourly level is 7365, which is relatively far. Attention can be paid to the 7290 pressure on the 15 - minute small - cycle. The 15 - minute short positions can be held, with the stop - loss at 7290 [32]. Soda Ash - Logic: After the end of the anti - involution hype, the glass - soda ash with the greatest supply - demand pressure starts the spot - futures regression logic before delivery. The anti - involution has no real impact on the supply. The over - capacity trend continues, and the output has further increased after the price increase. The real estate demand is difficult to bottom out, and the supply - strong and demand - weak situation remains unchanged. The large inventory and high - output pressure continue to suppress the price [33]. - Technical Analysis: Hourly - level downward structure. The intraday oscillation does not change the downward trend. The short - term pressure is at 1320. The short positions can be held [33]. Caustic Soda - Logic: Last week, the supply - side output and start - up rate decreased due to autumn maintenance and transportation restrictions during the military parade. After the parade on September 3, the supply - side speculation may end. The export demand is at a high level but the profit is declining, and the domestic non - aluminum demand is rising in the early peak season, while the alumina demand remains flat at a high level. The overall supply - demand is strong, but the supply pressure is greater. The inventory is at a record high in the past 5 years, and there is an over - supply situation after the start - up rate recovers [36]. - Technical Analysis: Hourly - level downward structure. The intraday oscillation does not change the downward trend. The short - term pressure is at 2625. The short positions can be held, with the stop - profit at 2625 [36].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The agricultural product sector shows a mixed performance. Bean meal, jujube, and some oils are rising, while cotton and pigs are facing downward pressure or limited rebounds. The market is mainly influenced by factors such as supply - demand expectations, USDA reports, and seasonal consumption patterns [1]. 3. Summary by Variety (1) Bean Meal - The main 2601 contract of bean meal rose and recovered the losses of the previous two days, driven by the rebound of US soybean futures. The market expects the USDA to lower the US soybean yield forecast. Although domestic bean meal inventory increased in September, the uncertainty of Sino - US economic and trade relations and the tightening of soybean supply in the fourth quarter support the price. Before the USDA report, short - term trading is recommended, with support at 3065 and resistance at 3100 [2]. (2) Palm Oil - The main 2601 contract of palm oil first declined and then rose. After the release of the MPOB's bearish monthly report, the price digested the negative pressure. The rise of crude oil, the expected moderate bullishness of the USDA report, and the decline in Malaysian palm oil production in early September supported the price. Before the USDA report, close short positions and conduct short - term trading, with support at 9250 and resistance at 9394 [3]. (3) Soybean Oil - The main 2601 contract of soybean oil rebounded. Before the USDA report, short - covering boosted the price. Domestic soybean oil supply is sufficient, but the start of double - festival stocking supports the price. Close short positions and wait for opportunities, with support at 8250 and resistance at 8366 [5]. (4) Eggs - The main 2511 contract of eggs fluctuated slightly higher at a low level. The double - festival stocking demand supported the price in the near term, but the high egg - laying hen inventory and the approaching peak egg - laying season may increase supply pressure. Hold short positions, with support at 3000 and resistance at 3069 [7]. (5) Apples - The main 2601 contract of apples continued to rise. The procurement of early - maturing apples in the western region was active, and the reduction of seasonal fruits and double - festival stocking demand supported the price. Close short positions and hold light long positions, with support at 8150 and resistance at 8300 [10]. (6) Jujubes - The main 2601 contract of jujubes rose strongly. There is a strong expectation of new jujube production reduction this year, and the market has high expectations for the opening price in October. The start of double - festival stocking and the approaching sugar - increasing stage support the price. Hold light long positions, with support at 11110 and resistance at 11315 [11][13]. (7) Sugar - The main 2601 contract of Zhengzhou sugar continued to rebound, driven by the rise of overseas raw sugar futures. The adjustment expectation of the sugar - making ratio in Brazil and the domestic mid - autumn stocking supported the price. Close short positions, with support at 5531 and resistance at 5580 [14]. (8) Corn - The main 2511 contract of corn rebounded slightly after two - day decline. The new corn is starting to be listed, with high opening prices and active downstream procurement. Close short positions and conduct short - term trading, with support at 2184 and resistance at 2210 [17]. (9) Cotton - The main 2601 contract of cotton continued to decline. There is a strong expectation of new cotton production increase in China, and the consumption recovery is slow. Hold light short positions, with support at 13780 and resistance at 13900 [20]. (10) Pigs - The main 2511 contract of pigs fluctuated lower, with limited rebound. The supply is in excess in September, but there is an expectation of increased demand during the double - festivals. Hold short positions, with support at 13200 and resistance at 13400 [21][23].

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. Core View of the Report The report analyzes the market conditions of various energy and chemical products, including their fundamental logic, technical analysis, and trading strategies. Most products show a bearish or neutral outlook, with suggestions mainly to hold short positions or wait and see. Summary by Variety Crude Oil - Logic: OPEC+ started the second - phase 165,000 barrels/day复产 plan, with an expected large surplus after the first - phase复产. The second - phase复产 combined with the demand shift from peak to off - season will increase supply and decrease demand. South American situation is tense but not significantly worsened, and the fundamental drive is downward [2][3]. - Technical Analysis: Mid - term downward structure on the daily chart, short - term downward structure on the hourly chart. Today's rebound is for testing the short - term pressure at 489 (11 contract) [3]. - Strategy: Hold short positions on the hourly level, with a stop - loss reference of 489 [3]. Styrene (EB) - Logic: Weekly开工 increased slightly but there are unplanned overhauls. Downstream profits are poor, ABS and EPS开工 decreased, and port inventory continued to accumulate. After the autumn overhaul peak, new device commissioning in September - October will bring supply pressure, and the supply - demand pattern is weak [6]. - Technical Analysis: The short - term downward structure on the hourly chart is being tested. Today's intraday is oscillating, and it's a normal repair after the previous sharp drop. Standing above the short - term pressure of 7040 on the 10 - contract challenges the hourly downward structure [6]. - Strategy: Cautiously hold the remaining short positions on the hourly cycle, with a final take - profit at 7180 [6]. Rubber - Logic: Seasonal factors are strong, but there is no weather speculation on the supply side this year. Only short - term typhoons and rainy seasons make raw material prices temporarily strong. Imports increased in August. On the demand side, semi - steel tire开工 dropped significantly, while full - steel tire开工 remained high. The current fundamentals are neutral [9]. - Technical Analysis: Mid - term oscillating structure on the daily chart, upward structure on the hourly chart. Today's intraday is oscillating. After the previous technical breakthrough, the hourly level is considered an upward structure, with short - term support at 15880 [9]. - Strategy: Wait and see on the hourly cycle [9]. Synthetic Rubber (BR) - Logic: There is no major contradiction in the supply - demand of styrene - butadiene rubber. Supply - side device overhauls led to a drop in开工 and output, and downstream semi - steel tire inventory also decreased. The main contradiction lies in the cost side of butadiene. With the arrival of cargo ships, port inventory has increased significantly, and the supply pressure will gradually materialize in the medium - term [13]. - Technical Analysis: Mid - term oscillating/downward structure on the daily chart, waiting for the short - term trend structure to be established on the hourly chart. Today's intraday is oscillating, and the hourly line closed at the lower edge of the oscillation range. Wait for the night session to verify the downward breakthrough [13]. - Strategy: Hold short positions on the 15 - minute small cycle, with a take - profit reference of 11960 on the 15 - minute level [13]. PX - Logic: PX profit recovery and the end of the overhaul peak led to an increase in开工. The overall开工 of PTA decreased, and the previous destocking of PX slowed down. The short - term fundamentals weakened, and more attention should be paid to the cost - end impact of crude oil [16][19]. - Technical Analysis: The short - term downward structure on the hourly chart is being tested. Today's intraday is oscillating, and the hourly cycle's downward trend has not reversed. Pay attention to the 15 - minute upper - edge pressure at 6770 [19]. - Strategy: Hold the remaining short positions on the hourly cycle [19]. PTA - Logic: It lacks its own driving force, and attention should be paid to the cost - end collapse logic of crude oil [20]. - Technical Analysis: Short - term downward structure on the hourly chart. Today's intraday oscillation did not change the downward structure, with the short - term pressure at 4700 [20]. - Strategy: Hold short positions on the hourly cycle, with a take - profit reference of 4700 [20]. PP - Logic: Supply - side开工 increased, and new devices will be put into operation in August - September. Demand entered the peak season, and the supply - demand pressure is not obvious. Attention should be paid to the cost - end collapse logic [23]. - Technical Analysis: Short - term downward structure on the hourly chart. Today's intraday is oscillating, and the short - term pressure at 7090 is far. Pay attention to the 15 - minute short - cycle pressure at 6990, and partial take - profit can be done if it breaks through [23]. - Strategy: Hold short positions on the hourly cycle [23]. Methanol - Logic: Domestic and overseas methanol开工 remained high, and the port inventory continued to accumulate to a five - year high in September. Downstream demand weakened, and the short - term pressure is huge [27]. - Technical Analysis: Mid - term downward/oscillating on the daily chart, short - term downward on the hourly chart. Today's intraday is oscillating, with short - term pressure at 2435 [27]. - Strategy: Cautiously hold the remaining short positions on the hourly cycle, with the hourly line 2435 as the final take - profit [27]. PVC - Logic: Previous overhauls ended,开工 remained at a high of 75%. The strong comprehensive profit of chlor - alkali makes it difficult to reduce PVC supply. Inventory accumulated to the highest level in the same period, and demand is hard to improve before the real estate bottoms out [30]. - Technical Analysis: Mid - term upward structure on the daily chart, short - term downward structure on the hourly chart. Today's intraday is oscillating, and the downward structure remains unchanged after a rebound. The short - term pressure is at 4965 [31][32]. - Strategy: Hold short positions on the hourly cycle [32]. Ethylene Glycol (EG) - Logic: Port inventory is at a multi - year low, making its fundamentals relatively strong compared to other energy and chemical products. However, with the increase in domestic开工, it is expected to enter an inventory - accumulation cycle. Short - term is strong, but medium - term is bearish [34]. - Technical Analysis: Mid - term oscillating/downward structure on the daily chart, short - term downward structure on the hourly chart. Today's intraday oscillation did not change the downward structure, with short - term pressure at 4375 [34]. - Strategy: Convert 15 - minute short positions to hourly positions, with a stop - loss reference of 4375 [34]. Plastic - Logic: PE开工 remained stable, and the demand improvement in the peak season is slow. The fundamental driving force is average [37]. - Technical Analysis: Mid - term oscillating/downward structure on the daily chart, short - term downward structure on the hourly chart. Today's intraday is oscillating, and the short - term pressure at 7365 is far. First, pay attention to the 15 - minute small - cycle pressure at 7305 [37]. - Strategy: Hold short positions on the 15 - minute level, with a stop - loss reference of 7305 [37]. Soda Ash - Logic: After the anti - involution speculation ended, the glass - soda ash with the greatest supply - demand pressure entered the spot - futures regression logic before delivery. The anti - involution had no real impact on soda ash supply, and the over - capacity trend continued. High output and high inventory pressure increased since August, and the supply - demand pattern of strong supply and weak demand remains unchanged [40]. - Technical Analysis: Downward structure on the hourly chart. Today's intraday oscillation did not change the downward structure, with short - term pressure at 1320 [40]. - Strategy: Hold short positions on the hourly cycle [40]. Caustic Soda - Logic: Last week, supply - side output and开工 decreased due to autumn overhauls and transportation restrictions in Shandong during the parade. After the parade, the supply - side speculation may end. Demand - side exports are at a high level but with falling profits. Domestic non - aluminum demand increased in the early peak season, and alumina demand remained high. Overall, supply and demand are both strong, but supply pressure is greater, and the inventory is at a five - year high [42]. - Technical Analysis: Downward structure on the hourly chart. Today's intraday oscillation did not change the downward structure, with short - term pressure at 2625 [42]. - Strategy: Hold short positions on the hourly cycle, with a take - profit reference of 2625 [42].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The agricultural products sector shows a mixed performance, with significant drops in oil and fat prices, a decline in corn prices, and varied trends in other products such as eggs, apples, and others [1]. - Different factors influence each product, including supply - demand dynamics, external market news, and seasonal factors [1][2][3] 3. Summary by Related Catalogs 3.1 Agricultural Products Sector Overview - Oil and fat prices drop significantly, with palm oil leading the decline due to negative data in the Malaysian MPOB monthly report and the fall of US soybean oil. Corn prices decline further as new corn is listed, and egg price rebound lacks sustainability [1]. 3.2 Variety Strategy Tracking 3.2.1 Palm Oil - The main 2601 contract of palm oil drops significantly, affected by negative news of US soybean oil and the negative data in the Malaysian MPOB report. The inventory in Malaysia increased by 4.18% to 2.2 million tons in August. The strategy is to close long positions and lightly short - sell, with support at 9236 and resistance at 9300 [2]. 3.2.2 Soybean Oil - The main 2601 contract of soybean oil drops significantly, dragged down by the fall of US soybean oil and sufficient domestic supply. As of September 5, the inventory was 1.2388 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 14.66%. The strategy is to close long positions and lightly short - sell, with support at 8240 and resistance at 8300 [3]. 3.2.3 Eggs - The main 2511 contract of eggs drops significantly, due to high egg - laying hen inventory. The strategy is to close long positions and lightly short - sell, with support at 3000 and resistance at 3040 [5]. 3.2.4 Apples - The main 2601 contract of apples rebounds slightly after a sharp fall, supported by short - covering. The strategy is to hold short positions, with support at 8000 and resistance at 8166 [7]. 3.2.5 Red Dates - The main 2601 contract of red dates fluctuates narrowly. The strategy is to close short positions and conduct short - term trading, with support at 10910 and resistance at 11090 [9]. 3.2.6 Sugar - The main 2601 contract of Zheng sugar rebounds at a low level, driven by the rebound of the overseas market. The strategy is to hold short positions for now, with support at 5503 and resistance at 5560 [12]. 3.2.7 Corn - The main 2511 contract of corn drops continuously, pressured by the listing of new corn. The strategy is to hold light short positions, with support at 2188 and resistance at 2213 [13][15]. 3.2.8 Cotton - The main 2601 contract of cotton first declines and then rises, but the weakness remains. The strategy is to hold light short positions, with support at 13790 and resistance at 14000 [16][19]. 3.2.9 Live Pigs - The main 2511 contract of live pigs rebounds at a low level, but the weakness remains. The strategy is to hold short positions, with support at 13200 and resistance at 13400 [20]. 3.2.10 Soybean Meal - The main 2601 contract of soybean meal fluctuates downward. The strategy is short - term trading before the release of major report data, with support at 3050 and resistance at 3080 [22].

Report Industry Investment Rating - The report treats the energy and chemical industry weakly [1] Core Viewpoints - The energy and chemical industry is generally bearish, with different degrees of supply - demand imbalances and downward - facing fundamentals in multiple products [2][3][6] Summary by Product Crude Oil - Logic: OPEC+ starts the second - stage 165 - barrel - per - day resumption plan, with 137,000 barrels per day increase in October. The domestic seasonal demand slows down earlier than overseas, leading to SC crude oil breaking through support first. The fundamental drive is downward [3] - Technical Analysis: The daily - level has a medium - term downward structure, and the hourly - level has a short - term downward structure. There is an opportunity to short on the hourly level, with a stop - loss reference of 489 (11 contract) [3] Styrene (EB) - Logic: The weekly start - up rate has a slight increase, but there will be unplanned maintenance. The downstream profit is poor, and the port inventory continues to accumulate. After the autumn maintenance peak, there will be new device production pressure in September - October. The supply - demand pattern is weak [6] - Technical Analysis: The hourly - level short - term downward structure is being tested. The strategy is to hold the remaining short positions cautiously, with a final stop - profit at 7180 (10 contract) [6] Rubber - Logic: Seasonal factors are strong, but there is no weather speculation on the supply side. The import volume is expected to increase. The demand is neutral, with the semi - steel tire start - up rate dropping and the full - steel tire start - up rate remaining high [9] - Technical Analysis: The daily - level has a medium - term oscillating structure, and the hourly - level has an upward structure. The strategy is to wait and see [9] Synthetic Rubber (BR) - Logic: The supply - demand of butadiene styrene rubber has no major contradiction, but the cost of butadiene is bearish due to increased port inventory and new capacity release. The upstream crude oil also has downward pressure [14] - Technical Analysis: The daily - level has a medium - term oscillating/downward structure, and the hourly - level has a short - term oscillating structure. Hold 15 - minute short positions, with a stop - profit reference of 11960 [14] PX - Logic: The PX start - up rate increases, and the demand - side start - up rate drops. The previous inventory reduction has paused, and the short - term fundamentals are weak, with more attention on the cost - end crude oil [16][19] - Technical Analysis: The hourly - level short - term downward structure is being tested. Hold the remaining short positions [19] PTA - Logic: It lacks its own drive, and focuses on the cost - end crude oil collapse logic [20] - Technical Analysis: The hourly - level has a short - term downward structure. Hold short positions, with a stop - profit reference of 4700 [20] PP - Logic: The supply - side start - up rate increases, and there are new device productions. The demand is in the peak season, and the supply - demand pressure is not obvious. Focus on the cost - end collapse logic [23] - Technical Analysis: The hourly - level has a short - term downward structure. Hold short positions, and consider partial stop - profit if it breaks through 6990 (15 - minute short - cycle pressure) [23] Methanol - Logic: The domestic and overseas methanol start - up rates are high, the port inventory continues to accumulate to a 5 - year high, and the downstream demand is weak [27] - Technical Analysis: The daily - level has a medium - term downward/oscillating structure, and the hourly - level has a short - term downward structure. Hold the remaining short positions cautiously, with a final stop - profit at 2435 [27] PVC - Logic: The start - up rate is high, the inventory is at a historical high, and the demand is difficult to improve before the real - estate market bottoms out [28] - Technical Analysis: The daily - level has a medium - term upward structure, and the hourly - level has a short - term downward structure. Hold short positions, with a short - term pressure at 4965 [31] Ethylene Glycol (EG) - Logic: The port inventory is at a low level, but it is expected to enter a inventory - accumulation cycle. The short - term reality is strong, and the medium - term expectation is bearish [32] - Technical Analysis: The daily - level has a medium - term oscillating/downward structure, and the hourly - level has a downward structure. Transfer 15 - minute short positions to hourly positions, with a stop - loss reference of 4375 [32] Plastic - Logic: The PE start - up rate is stable, and the demand improvement is slow in the peak season. The fundamental drive is average [35] - Technical Analysis: The daily - level has a medium - term oscillating/downward structure, and the hourly - level has a downward structure. Hold 15 - minute short positions, with a stop - loss reference of 7305 [35] Soda Ash - Logic: After the anti - involution hype, it enters the spot - futures regression logic. The supply - demand pattern is supply - strong and demand - weak, with high inventory and production pressure [38] - Technical Analysis: The hourly - level has a downward structure. Hold short positions, with a short - term pressure at 1320 [38] Caustic Soda - Logic: The supply - side production and start - up rate decreased last week, but the supply pressure will return after the end of special events. The demand is strong but the supply pressure is greater, and the inventory is at a 5 - year high [40] - Technical Analysis: The hourly - level has a downward structure. Hold short positions, with a stop - profit reference of 2635 [40]