菜油暴跌,因菜油库存高企,同时中加经贸关系或有缓和,菜籽 进口有回升潜力,菜系后续供应有宽松预期,菜油期价承压大幅下跌, 后市料偏弱运行。苹果持续回升,库存偏低以及新季苹果减产预期支 撑苹果期价走高。玉米回升,虽然小麦替代施压玉米价格,但是玉米 产区余粮告罄,供应偏紧,支撑玉米价格。生猪和鸡蛋持续下跌,养 殖端存栏高企以及下游需求偏弱持续施压期价走低。豆粕窄幅震荡, 进口豆集中到港,油厂开机回升,豆粕供应增大,后市豆粕或将承压 下行。 二、品种策略跟踪 (一) 菜油: 大幅下跌 菜油大跌、苹果上涨 一、农产品板块综述 焦点关注:菜油主力 2509 合约大幅下跌,受到库存高位以及中 加经贸关系可能缓和的利空压力： 1.菜油库存处于高位,据 Mysteel 调研显示,截至 5月 30日,菜 油库存总量为 76.9 万吨,环比增加 0.40%,同比增加 91.77%。高库 存压制菜油期价走低。同时中国和加拿大经贸关系可能缓和,市场预 期后续菜系供应宽松,亦令菜油承压大跌。 2.菜油主力 2509 合约暴跌远离均线系统,MACD 死叉后绿柱扩大, 技术偏弱,策略上轻仓空单,菜油主力2509合约支撑 9000,阻力 9 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - Crude oil rebounded again to test the pressure, and the energy and chemical sector generally rebounded, but it is still regarded as a rebound rather than a reversal before breaking through the pressure [1]. - The new Iran nuclear deal is likely to be reached, and OPEC+ production increase remains a long - term constraint on oil prices [1][2]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs (1) Crude Oil - **Logic**: In terms of supply and demand, OPEC+ decided to increase production by 411,000 barrels per day in July, not exceeding expectations. Kazakhstan refused to cut production, and the production cut implementation rate was low. Canada's oil sands production was affected by wildfires. Geopolitically, the Russia - Ukraine situation had limited impact on oil. The US made concessions on the Iran nuclear deal, and it is likely to be reached [2]. - **Technical Analysis**: The daily - level has a medium - term downward structure, and the hourly - level has a short - term downward structure. It rebounded to test the short - term pressure at 468 today but did not effectively break through. The 07 - contract short position is held, and the passive stop - profit reference is 470 [2]. (2) Benzene Ethylene (EB) - **Logic**: The port inventory of pure benzene reached a 5 - year high, and the supply was abundant. Benzene ethylene port inventory increased, supply was high, and demand did not improve, so it is bearish in the medium term [4]. - **Technical Analysis**: The hourly - level has a short - term downward structure. It was regarded as a position - reducing rebound today, not a trend reversal. The short - term pressure is at 7270. Short positions are continued to be held [7]. (3) Rubber - **Logic**: Domestic rubber inventory increased seasonally. Supply in Southeast Asia was expected to increase, and tire inventory was high, so it is bearish [8]. - **Technical Analysis**: The daily - level has a medium - term downward structure, and the hourly - level has a short - term downward structure. It was a position - reducing rebound today. Look for short - selling opportunities after the rebound fails to break through the pressure at 14000 [8]. (4) Synthetic Rubber (BR) - **Logic**: The fundamentals of synthetic rubber are average. The supply of butadiene is expected to increase, and tire inventory pressure restricts demand [11]. - **Technical Analysis**: The daily - level has a medium - term downward structure, and the hourly - level has a short - term downward structure. It was a position - reducing rebound today. The short - term pressure is at 11470 [11]. (5) PX - **Logic**: PX device maintenance recovery was slow, downstream PTA start - up declined, and the cost of crude oil had downward pressure [15]. - **Technical Analysis**: The hourly - level has a short - term downward structure. It oscillated today with a small rebound at the end. Look for short - selling opportunities after the rebound ends. The short - term pressure is at 6735 [15]. (6) PTA - **Logic**: The expected "export rush" did not occur, but short - term supply - demand was still strong due to device maintenance. The cost of crude oil had downward pressure [17]. - **Technical Analysis**: The hourly - level has a short - term downward structure. It oscillated today with a small rebound at the end. Look for short - selling opportunities after the rebound ends. The short - term pressure is at 4800 [17]. (7) PP - **Logic**: It entered the off - season, demand was weak, and new production capacity was expected. It may follow the crude oil price in the short term [22]. - **Technical Analysis**: The hourly - level has a short - term downward structure. It was a position - reducing rebound today. The short - term pressure is at 6980. Short positions are held [22]. (8) Methanol - **Logic**: Domestic device start - up was high, downstream olefin demand was weak, and overseas imports were expected to increase, so the disk was under pressure [24]. - **Technical Analysis**: The hourly - level has a downward structure. It oscillated today without a bottoming signal. The short - term pressure is at 2255. Short positions are held with a stop - profit at 2255 [24]. (9) PVC - **Logic**: Device maintenance was expected to end, and demand was weak due to the real - estate downturn and the off - season [28]. - **Technical Analysis**: The daily - level has a medium - term downward structure, and the hourly - level has a short - term downward structure. It oscillated today without a bottoming signal. Look for short - selling opportunities at the reversal pattern near the short - term pressure of 4980 [28]. (10) Ethylene Glycol (EG) - **Logic**: Supply is expected to increase after device recovery, and short - term polyester demand is okay, with not obvious supply - demand contradictions [29]. - **Technical Analysis**: The daily - level has a medium - term downward structure, and the hourly - level short - term downward structure may end. Short positions are stopped at profit [29][31]. (11) Plastic - **Logic**: Supply decreased due to new maintenance, demand was weak after the off - season of agricultural films, and inventory pressure increased [32]. - **Technical Analysis**: The daily - level has a medium - term downward structure, and the hourly - level has a short - term downward structure. It oscillated with a position - reducing rebound today. The short - term pressure is at 7120. Short positions are held with a stop - profit at 7120 [32].

原油高开低走未现转势, 合成胶与苯乙烯跌幅居前仍是首选空品种 行情日评: 假期外盘原油受 OPEC+增产未超预期以及周末乌克兰对俄罗斯 腹地机场袭击造成较大规模损失,俄乌局势升温影响一度走强。今日 原油高开反应外盘涨幅后一路走低,短期盘面未见转势,俄乌地缘升 温对原油实际影响有限,OPEC+7月维持高速增产,供应压力依旧, 中期结构 小时周期策略 品种 短期结构 偏空 偏空 原油 空单持有 偏空 偏空 空单持有 EB 偏空 偏空 寻反抽结束做空机会 PX 寻反抽结束做空机会 偏空 偏空 PTA 偏空 偏空 空单持有 PP 塑料 偏空 偏空 空单持有 空单持有 甲醇 偏空 偏空 偏空 偏空 空单持有 EG 寻反抽结束做空机会 橡胶 偏空 偏空 寻反抽结束做空机会 PVC 偏空 偏空 BR 橡胶 偏空 偏空 空单持有 板块观点汇总 原油短期更多关注新伊核协议方面进展;能化系中今日合成胶与苯乙 烯跌幅居前,三大橡胶与聚烯烃类品种仍是基本面向下逻辑较清晰的 优先空配品种。 (一) 原油: 逻辑:供需方面 6月 opec+会议上确定 7 月增产 41.1 万桶/日, 未超预期,自愿减产方面哈萨克斯坦多次公开表态拒绝减产 ...

两粕大跌、白糖续跌 一、农产品板块综述 两粕大跌,受美豆持续下行带动,国内进口大豆集中到港,油厂 开机率提升,端午期间现货豆粕价格普遍下跌,豆粕库存增加,期价 承压下行,而菜粕空头大量平仓退场,推动菜粕大幅下行,走势转弱。 白糖持续下跌,受到外盘原糖跌势的拖累,国内白糖产量增产,且市 场对后市进口放量预期增强,压制白糖跌势持续。农副产品生猪和鸡 蛋皆走跌,因供应充足,端午后需求淡季,压制期价走低。油脂走势 分化,棕油领涨,菜油下跌,棕油产地出口需求增加支撑马来西亚棕 油走高,带动连棕油上升,继续关注产地产量及需求变化。 二、品种策略跟踪 (一)豆粕、菜粕:大幅下跌 焦点关注:豆粕2509 合约端午节后低开低走,受到美豆持续走 低的带动,菜粕2509 合约亦随之大跌: 1. 端午假期期间,CBOT 大豆期价持续下跌,因美豆播种进度 偏快,加之美国关税扰动,市场担心美国油籽需求受到影响,美豆期 价连续收阴。大连豆粕期价当日开盘低开低走,国内进口大豆集中到 港,油厂开机率显著回升,豆粕供应增加,库存回升,中国粮油商务 网数据显示,截至第21周国内豆粕库存20.8 万吨,环比增加 59.75%。 豆粕价格承压下行。菜 ...

Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. Core View of the Report The CIT ruling on tariffs was just a short - term emotional disturbance. After the CAFC's decision, most commodities erased the previous day's rebound. Tariffs will likely continue as long as Trump is in power. The trading strategy should focus on the fundamental logic to find the strength and weakness of varieties. For the energy - chemical sector, crude oil, three types of rubber, and polyolefins have clear downward fundamental logic [3][4]. Summary by Related Catalogs Overall Market Situation - The CIT ruling on tariffs was a short - term emotional boost, but the CAFC's decision restored the tariffs, and most commodities erased the previous day's rebound. The trading should focus on the fundamentals [3][4]. Commodity Analysis Crude Oil - **Logic**: OPEC+ finalized the 2027 production benchmark, and the production increase plan will be discussed on Saturday. Kazakhstan can't reduce oil production. There's a high possibility of a new Iran nuclear deal [5]. - **Technical Analysis**: The daily - level中期下跌结构 and hourly - level短期下跌 structure. The price hit a new low, and the short - term pressure is at 468. The hourly - cycle short position should be held, with a stop - profit reference of 468 [5]. Benzene Ethylene (EB) - **Logic**: Low inventory, but the supply is expected to increase due to the early resumption of maintenance devices. The cost support is weak, and the demand is hard to improve [8]. - **Technical Analysis**: The hourly - level短期下跌 structure. The price followed the decline of crude oil. The short - term pressure is at 7343. The hourly - cycle short position should be held, with a stop - profit reference of 7343 [8]. PX - **Logic**: The PX devices are in maintenance, and the downstream PTA's operation rate has increased. However, the cost logic may dominate the market after the decline of crude oil [12]. - **Technical Analysis**: The hourly - level短期震荡 structure. The price fell after reducing positions, and the previous upward breakthrough was false. The strategy is to wait and see [12]. PTA - **Logic**: The supply may increase, but there are concentrated maintenance plans in the second quarter. The demand is relatively strong, but the cost logic may dominate after the decline of crude oil [16]. - **Technical Analysis**: The hourly - level短期震荡 structure. The price fell after reducing positions, and the previous upward breakthrough was false. The strategy is to wait and see [16]. PP - **Logic**: The supply is stable, but there are new production capacity expectations in June. The domestic demand is in the off - season, and the export is hard to increase [20]. - **Technical Analysis**: The hourly - level短期下跌 structure. The price was volatile and ended lower. The short - term pressure is at 6980. The hourly - cycle short position should be held, with a stop - profit reference of 6980 [20]. Methanol - **Logic**: The domestic operation rate decreased slightly, but the overseas operation rate increased. There are high import expectations in June, and the demand is flat [25]. - **Technical Analysis**: The hourly - level下跌结构. The price was volatile and continued to decline. The short - term pressure is at 2255. The hourly - cycle short position should be held, with a stop - profit reference of 2255 [25]. Rubber - **Logic**: The demand is weak with high inventory of automobiles and tires. The EU launched an anti - dumping investigation on Chinese tires. The domestic inventory is accumulating, and the supply will increase in June [26]. - **Technical Analysis**: The daily - level中期下跌 and hourly - level短期下跌 structure. The price hit a new low, and the short - term pressure is at 14000. Look for short - selling opportunities after the rebound fails [26]. PVC - **Logic**: The real - estate data in April was poor, and the terminal demand is hard to improve. The supply will increase after the resumption of device maintenance [29]. - **Technical Analysis**: The daily - level中期下跌 and hourly - level短期下跌 structure. The price was volatile and continued to decline. The short - term pressure is at 4980. Look for short - selling opportunities after the reversal pattern [29]. Ethylene Glycol (EG) - **Logic**: The overall supply operation rate decreased slightly, and the arrival of goods increased. The polyester load remains high [33]. - **Technical Analysis**: The daily - level中期下跌 and hourly - level短期下跌 structure. The price was volatile, and the short - term pressure is at 4405. The hourly - cycle short position should be held, with a stop - profit reference of 4405 [33]. Plastic - **Technical Analysis**: The daily - level中期下跌 and hourly - level短期下跌 structure. The price hit a new low, and the short - term pressure is at 7120. The hourly - cycle short position should be held, with a stop - profit reference of 7120 [37]. Synthetic Rubber - **Logic**: The supply of butadiene will increase in June, which will put pressure on synthetic rubber from the cost side. The demand is weak [41]. - **Technical Analysis**: The daily - level中期下跌 and hourly - level短期下跌 structure. The price hit a new low, and the short - term pressure is at 11580. The hourly - cycle short position should be held, with a stop - profit reference of 11580 [41].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The agricultural products sector shows a mixed performance, with most oil - related products falling, sugar being weak, while corn is stabilizing and rising. The prices of various products are affected by factors such as international market trends, domestic supply and demand, and seasonal characteristics [1]. 3. Summary by Variety (1) Palm Oil - The palm oil main contract 2509 fell sharply, dragged down by the decline of soybean oil. The Malaysian production area is in the production - increasing season, and the domestic spot trading is cold. The strategy is to close long positions and wait for an opportunity to short - sell, with support at 8000 and resistance at 8100 [2]. (2) Soybean Oil - The soybean oil main contract 2509 continued to decline and expanded its decline, driven by the continuous fall of US soybean oil futures. Domestic supply pressure increased due to large - scale imports of soybeans and high - level oil - mill压榨. The strategy is to maintain a light short position, with support at 7600 and resistance at 7700 [3]. (3) Sugar - The sugar main contract 2509 continued to fall and was weakly running. Domestic production increased and there were concerns about increased imports. The strategy is to maintain a light short position, with support at 5750 and resistance at 5800 [5]. (4) Peanut - The peanut main contract 2510 reversed and fell sharply after a sharp rise, dragged down by the overall decline of the oil sector. Although there are some factors supporting the price, the demand is limited. The strategy is to reduce long positions, with support at 8368 and resistance at 8528 [8]. (5) Soybean Meal - The soybean meal main contract 2509 oscillated at a high level. The supply increased due to the arrival of imported soybeans and the increase in oil - mill operation rate. The strategy is to close long positions, with support at 2940 and resistance at 2984 [10]. (6) Corn - The corn main contract 2507 stabilized and rose. The reduction of remaining grain in the production area and the decline of port inventory supported the price. The strategy is to hold a light long position, with support at 2330 and resistance at 2342 [11][13]. (7) Live Pig - The live pig main contract 2509 rebounded first and then declined, with limited rebound. The market is back to the influence of fundamental supply - demand. The strategy is short - term trading, with support at 13380 and resistance at 13750 [14][16]. (8) Cotton - The cotton main contract 2509 oscillated downward. The textile industry is in a seasonal demand trough, and the demand for cotton is weak. The strategy is to wait patiently for a breakthrough and conduct short - term trading, with support at 13235 and resistance at 13370 [17]. (9) Egg - The egg main contract 2507 rebounded at a low level, but the downward trend has not reversed. The supply is abundant, and the price is under pressure. The strategy is for short - sellers to take profits, with support at 2869 and resistance at 2980 [19]. (10) Apple - The apple main contract 2510 continued to rebound. The low inventory and the expected reduction in the new season supported the price. The strategy is to hold a light long position, with support at 7645 and resistance at 7710 [21].

关税扰动市场反弹,但偏弱结构未改 行情日评: 今日市场受短期关税消息扰动在连续下跌后出现情绪修复,多数 品种出现反弹。关税是否真的就此取消?如何理解昨晚"美国国际贸 易法院(CIT)裁定特朗普 4 月 2 日对等关税政策越权且违法"这一 事件。 短期结构 品种 中期结构 小时周期策略 原油 偏空 震荡 空单持有 偏空 空单持有 偏空 EB 偏空 空单止损 農汤 PX 空单止损 偏空 震荡 PTA 偏空 偏空 空单持有 PP 偏空 偏空 空单持有 塑料 甲醇 偏空 偏空 空单持有 偏空 偏空 空单持有 EG 寻反抽结束做空机会 橡胶 偏空 偏空 寻反抽结束做空机会 PVC 偏空 偏空 BR 橡胶 偏空 偏空 空单持有 板块观点汇总 我们认为短期有情绪利好扰动(昨晚到今天的反弹,盘面已反应), 但实际判决未必能执行,关税仍难被取消。主要原因是 CIT 裁定后虽 然理论上海关需要在 1-3 天内停止征税,但 CIT 作为联邦法院的裁决 并非终局,特朗普政府有权向上诉至联邦巡回上诉法院(CAFC)法院 提出异议,并申请暂缓执行(目前已上诉),如果 CAFC 维持 CIT 判 决,特朗普政府可向最高法院申请调卷令,目前 ...

棕油上涨、花生大涨 一、农产品板块综述 油脂强势走高,棕油领涨,因马棕油产量增幅放缓,而出口增幅 扩大,支撑棕油期价走高,继续关注后续产地产量变化。豆油先跌后 涨,受到棕榈油强势带动而缩减跌幅,但进口大豆到港集中,油厂开 机率上市,豆油供应增加,豆油期价承压,后续仍有走跌压力。花生 暴涨,受到油脂板块强势的带动,加之花生贸易商惜售以及进口花生 米偏低等因素支撑花生期价大幅上涨,创近半年新高,后续料将偏强 运行。玉米走势企稳,产区余粮见底以及港口库存下降支撑玉米期价 逐渐回稳有升。 二、品种策略跟踪 (一) 棕櫚油: 大幅上扬 焦点关注:棕榈油主力 2509 合约继续大涨,受到马棕榈油增产 放缓以及出口强劲的提振: 1.高频数据显示,马来西亚 5 月 1-25 日标搁油出口环比增幅在 7%-11%之间,而同期产量环比增幅在 0.73%,产量增幅不及出口增 幅,给市场注入偏多影响,因印度当前棕榈油库存偏低,有阶段性补 库需求,提振马棕榈油出口。 2.国内豆棕现货价差倒挂加深,棕榈油现货交投冷清,棕榈油消 费偏弱。大连棕榈油主力 2509 合约强劲上扬,站上 40 日均线,MACD 红柱放大,技术强势。策略上轻仓多 ...

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. 2. Core View of the Report The energy and chemical sector remains weak. Crude oil is waiting for the OPEC meeting to drive the market, while aromatics have confirmed a breakdown, and polyolefins continue to be weak. Most varieties in the sector are rated as bearish in both the medium and short - term [1]. 3. Summary by Variety (1) Crude Oil - **Logic**: Overseas macro - path is unclear, with potential macro - risks this week due to issues like US and Japanese bond auctions and a rising VIX index. OPEC+ is expected to accelerate production increase in the medium - term, and short - term US refined oil inventories are rising. There is a possibility of new Iran nuclear deal [1][2]. - **Technical Analysis**: Daily - level medium - term and hourly - level short - term downward structures. Closed down more than 1% today, with short - term pressure at 461 [2]. - **Strategy**: Hold short positions in the hourly cycle [1][2]. (2) Styrene (EB) - **Logic**: Low inventory, but high - profit led to early resumption of previously shut - down plants, increasing supply. Pure benzene faces arrival pressure, and downstream demand is hard to improve [5]. - **Technical Analysis**: Hourly - level short - term downward structure, new low with increased positions today. Short - term pressure at 7195 [5]. - **Strategy**: Hold short positions in the hourly cycle, with stop - profit reference at 7195 [5]. (3) PX - **Logic**: PX plants are in maintenance, with low operating rates. Downstream PTA's operating rate is rising, and PX is in a de - stocking phase. However, the cost factor may dominate the market after the decline in crude oil [9]. - **Technical Analysis**: Hourly - level short - term downward structure, long - negative line confirmed the breakdown. Short - term pressure at 6775 [9]. - **Strategy**: Try short positions in the hourly cycle, with stop - loss reference at 6720 [9]. (4) PTA - **Logic**: PTA plant operating rates are rising, but there are concentrated maintenance plans in the second quarter. Downstream polyester operating rates are firm. However, the cost factor may dominate after crude oil decline [13]. - **Technical Analysis**: Hourly - level short - term downward structure, long - negative line confirmed the breakdown. Short - term pressure at 4800 [13]. - **Strategy**: Try short positions in the hourly cycle, with stop - loss reference at 4750 [13]. (5) PP - **Logic**: Supply - side operating rates are stable, but new production capacity is expected in June. Domestic demand is in the off - season, and downstream enterprises are cautious in restocking. Export profits are rising, but short - term exports are hard to increase [16]. - **Technical Analysis**: Hourly - level short - term downward structure, oscillated today. Short - term pressure at the high point on May 26 [16]. - **Strategy**: Hold short positions in the hourly cycle, with stop - profit reference at 6980 [16]. (6) Methanol - **Logic**: Domestic operating rates decreased slightly due to plant maintenance, but overseas operating rates increased, with high import expectations in June. Demand is basically flat year - on - year, and it is under pressure [17]. - **Technical Analysis**: Hourly - level downward structure, continued to decline today. Short - term pressure at 2255 [17]. - **Strategy**: Hold short positions in the hourly cycle, with stop - profit reference at the high point on May 22 [17]. (7) Rubber - **Logic**: Terminal automobile and tire inventories are at high levels, and there is no sign of improvement in demand. The EU launched an anti - dumping investigation on Chinese tires, and domestic inventories are accumulating against the season [19]. - **Technical Analysis**: Daily - level medium - term and hourly - level short - term downward structures. Broke through the oscillation range with new low and increased positions today. Short - term pressure at 14550 [19]. - **Strategy**: Look for short - selling opportunities after a rebound fails to break through the pressure in the hourly cycle [19]. (8) PVC - **Logic**: April real - estate data is still poor, and downstream demand is hard to improve. Plant maintenance is gradually ending, and supply is expected to increase [22]. - **Technical Analysis**: Daily - level medium - term and hourly - level short - term downward structures. Declined with increased positions today. Short - term pressure at 4980 [22]. - **Strategy**: Look for short - selling opportunities with reversal patterns in the hourly cycle [22]. (9) Ethylene Glycol (EG) - **Logic**: Supply - side operating rates decreased slightly, but arrivals increased. Downstream polyester load remains high [23]. - **Technical Analysis**: Daily - level medium - term and hourly - level short - term downward structures. Broke through the short - term support at 4315 with a long - negative line and increased positions today. Short - term pressure at 4405 [23]. - **Strategy**: Transfer 15 - minute short positions to the hourly cycle, with stop - profit reference at 4405 [23]. (10) Plastic - **Technical Analysis**: Daily - level medium - term and hourly - level short - term downward structures. Declined with increased positions today. Short - term pressure at 7120 [25]. - **Strategy**: Hold short positions in the hourly cycle, with stop - profit reference at 7120 [25]. (11) Synthetic Rubber (BR) - **Logic**: In June, plants are expected to resume production after maintenance, increasing butadiene supply. Butadiene storage capacity is low, and price may fall after inventory accumulation. Terminal demand is weak [27]. - **Technical Analysis**: Daily - level medium - term and hourly - level short - term downward structures. Long - negative line with increased positions today. Short - term pressure at 11580 [27]. - **Strategy**: Hold short positions in the hourly cycle, with stop - profit reference at 11580 [27].

一、农产品板块综述 油脂走势分化,棕油偏强运行,因产地增产放缓而出口增幅较大 支撑马棕榈油反弹,但受制于后续产量将持续扩增,棕榈油回升空间 或受限,连棕油9月合约在近期波动区间上沿位置有阻力。而豆油走 势偏弱,国内进口大豆集中到港,油厂压榨量显著回升,供应增加令 豆油承压下跌。白糖大幅下跌,受外盘原糖跌势拖累,国内市场对后 期进口糖到港增加预期亦令自糖承压。农副产品生猪和鸡蛋延续下跌 趋势,供应充裕和需求偏弱持续压制行情走低。 二、品种策略跟踪 (一) 棕榈油: 震荡上扬 油脂震荡、白糖大跌 焦点关注:棕榈油主力 2509 合约继续反弹走高,因马棕产地棕 榴油增产放缓以及出口增加提振: 1.高频数据显示,马来西亚 5 月 1—25 日棕榈油出口环比增幅在 7.3%―35%之间，而同期产量环比增幅在 0.73%，产量增幅不及出口 增幅,给市场注入偏多影响,因印度当前棕榈油库存偏低,有阶段性 补库需求,提振马棕榈油出口。但马棕油处于季节性增产,后续产量 会逐渐增加,而出口或是阶段性增长,持续性仍有待观察,马棕油库 存仍有增长预期,料限制后续棕榈油反弹空间。 2.国内棕榈油现货需求疲软,库存仍相对偏低,供需矛盾不突 ...