短线多空交织原油再度反弹 摘要: 短线看昨晚多空交织,哈萨克斯坦公开表示 5月没有减产计划, 此前减产补偿落地可能性继续降低,但盘面未反应利空而是在美国财 政部又一次发布对伊朗的新制裁后延续反弹,近期短线利多始终围绕 有关伊朗方面。但目前仍是反弹而非反转看待。 原油中期三大驱动:供需、宏观、地缘目前均未看到反转,仍偏 空看待。短期看，五一假期内 OPEC+在 5 月会议上确认 6 月加速增产 41.1 万桶/日,与五月增产幅度保持一致,此前 220 万桶/日的减产 补偿计划额度回补大半,究其原因还是哈萨克斯坦、伊拉克等国对减 产配额的阳奉阴违,使沙特有意再度通过加速增产表达不满,沙特表 达出新一轮价格战倾向。OPEC+连续加速增产后,原油市场供应过剩 预期进一步加剧,原油中长期的下行压力增大。但除了供需驱动外, 地缘方面可能是潜在的短期变数:五一期间美伊第三轮谈判推迟,美 对伊朗再度发起新一轮制裁,以及胡塞袭击以色列机场后以表态伊朗 为幕后帮手,使伊朗方面的地缘驱动变动成为潜在可能的"短线突发 驱动"。考虑到原油阶梯式的盘面走法,落地到交易策略上,节前空 单可把止盈进一步下移至今日高点,如止盈后再等反弹逢高空 ...

Report Summary 1. Industry Investment Rating No investment rating information is provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints The report analyzes the recent trends and influencing factors of various agricultural products. Overall, the prices of some products are under pressure due to factors such as increased supply and weak demand, while others are supported by factors like strong demand and limited supply [1]. 3. Summary by Variety (1) Sugar - **Trend**: The main 2509 contract of sugar gapped down and fell sharply, affected by the decline in the external market [2]. - **Influencing Factors**: Brazil's new sugar - cane crushing season has a strong start, with sufficient supply and expected production increase, which strengthens the market's expectation of loose supply. The domestic import profit window for out - of - quota sugar is open, and the subsequent arrival pressure may increase. The spot trading is light [2]. - **Strategy**: Hold light - position short positions, with support at 5800 and resistance at 5849 [2]. (2) Soybean No.1 - **Trend**: The main 2507 contract of soybean No.1 reversed and fell sharply, entering a downward trend [3]. - **Influencing Factors**: The acceptance of high - priced domestic soybeans in the market is low, and the overall market trading is light. The arrival of imported soybeans eases the shortage of soybeans in oil mills, and the consumption of soy products enters the off - season [3]. - **Strategy**: Close long positions and hold light - position short positions, with support at 4100 and resistance at 4194 [3]. (3) Palm Oil - **Trend**: The main 2509 contract of palm oil first declined and then rose, but the price is still in a downward trend [5]. - **Influencing Factors**: The decline of the Malaysian palm oil futures price in the external market is narrowed by short - covering. The export growth rate of Malaysian palm oil is lower than the production growth rate, and the inventory is expected to continue to increase. The domestic import profit of palm oil rises, and the subsequent purchases increase, but the demand is still suppressed by the inverted price difference between soybean oil and palm oil [5]. - **Strategy**: Hold light - position short positions, with support at 7812 and resistance at 7974 [5]. (4) Soybean Oil - **Trend**: The main 2509 contract of soybean oil oscillated and declined [7]. - **Influencing Factors**: The overall inventory of the three major domestic oils has increased, and the inventory of soybean oil has increased significantly. With the increase in the arrival of soybeans, the oil mill's operating rate will rise, and the supply of soybean oil will increase [7]. - **Strategy**: Conduct short - term trading, with support at 7712 and resistance at 7782 [7]. (5) Soybean Meal - **Trend**: The main 2509 contract of soybean meal oscillated narrowly, and the downward trend remained unchanged [10]. - **Influencing Factors**: The operating rhythms of soybean oil mills in different regions are different, and the spot prices in the north and south are differentiated. With the increase in soybean supply, the oil mill's operating rate will rise, and the supply of soybean meal will increase. The downstream feed enterprises are cautious, and the trade enterprises have some purchases [10]. - **Strategy**: Hold light - position short positions, with support at 2895 and resistance at 2930 [10]. (6) Corn - **Trend**: The main 2507 contract of corn declined slightly and fluctuated at a high level [11]. - **Influencing Factors**: The remaining grain in the corn - producing areas is almost sold out, and the trading entities are reluctant to sell. The operating rate of downstream corn starch enterprises has increased, and the demand from feed enterprises has also gradually increased, and the port inventory has decreased slightly [13]. - **Strategy**: Hold light - position long positions on dips, with support at 2351 and resistance at 2387 [13]. (7) Live Pigs - **Trend**: The 2509 contract of live pigs was restricted in rebound, oscillated and declined, and the downward trend continued [14]. - **Influencing Factors**: The存栏 of the breeding end is at a high level, and the willingness to sell has increased. The planned slaughter volume in May has increased. After the May Day holiday, the demand has decreased, and the support from the demand side is insufficient [14]. - **Strategy**: Hold light - position short positions on rallies, with support at 13800 and resistance at 13940 [17]. (8) Eggs - **Trend**: The contracts of eggs showed a pattern of near - strong and far - weak, and the main 2506 contract of the near - month oscillated slightly, but the downward trend remained unchanged [18]. - **Influencing Factors**: The存栏 of laying hens is at a high level, and the supply of eggs is sufficient. During the May Day holiday, the spot price continued to fall, the market demand decreased, and the inventory digestion was slow [18]. - **Strategy**: Hold light - position short positions, with support at 2850 and resistance at 2905 [18]. (9) Cotton - **Trend**: The main 2509 contract of cotton oscillated and closed up, continuing the rebound trend [20]. - **Influencing Factors**: The meeting between Chinese and US senior officials on tariff issues has boosted market sentiment. The strong rise of cotton yarn futures has driven the rise of cotton. However, the weak downstream demand limits the rebound height [20]. - **Strategy**: Hold light - position long positions, with support at 12885 and resistance at 13015 [20]. (10) Apples - **Trend**: The main 2510 contract of apples fell sharply, and the trend turned downward [22]. - **Influencing Factors**: After the festival, the purchase speed of market merchants has slowed down. The apple inventory is still at a five - year low, but the inventory reduction speed has slowed down slightly. The futures price was under pressure from long - position liquidation and broke through the support level [22]. - **Strategy**: Hold light - position short positions and set stop - losses, with support at 7722 and resistance at 7828 [22].

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content Group 2: Core Viewpoints of the Report - The palm oil price continues to decline due to increased production and inventory expectations, weak downstream demand, and increased domestic imports [1][2]. - The cotton price rebounds due to the expected Sino - US tariff agreement, but the weak downstream demand limits the rebound [1][17]. - The soybean meal price fluctuates narrowly, and there is a downward pressure due to the expected increase in supply after the arrival of imported soybeans [1][7]. Group 3: Summary of Each Variety Palm Oil - The palm oil 2509 contract expands its decline, with strong supply and weak demand in the origin. The production in Malaysia in April increased by 17% - 25%, and it is expected to increase by 60% at the beginning of May, while the export only increased by 3% - 5%. Domestic purchases are increasing, and the demand is suppressed by the inverted soybean - palm oil price difference. The strategy is to hold a light - short position, with support at 7850 and resistance at 7974 [2]. Soybean Oil - The soybean oil 2509 contract rebounds. There is a post - holiday restocking demand, and the short - term supply is tight. But the supply will improve as the oil mill's operating rate rises. The strategy is to close short positions and conduct short - term trading, with support at 7738 and resistance at 7812 [3]. Soybean Meal - The soybean meal 2509 contract fluctuates narrowly and remains in a downward trend. The Sino - US meeting news boosts US soybeans, but the expected increase in supply after the arrival of imported soybeans limits the rebound. The strategy is to hold a light - short position, with support at 2896 and resistance at 2930 [4][7]. Corn - The corn 2507 contract rises and then falls, with high - level fluctuations. The low remaining grain in the producing area, strong downstream demand, and falling port inventory support the price. The strategy is to go long with a light position on dips, with support at 2365 and resistance at 2400 [8]. Live Pigs - The live pigs 2509 contract rebounds slightly but the downward trend remains. The high inventory in the breeding end and weak demand after the May Day holiday lead to this situation. The strategy is to go short with a light position on rallies, with support at 13900 and resistance at 14050 [10]. Sugar - The sugar 2509 contract declines in a volatile manner. The expected increase in production in Brazil and Thailand, falling international raw sugar prices, and the opening of the domestic import profit window lead to a weak trend. The strategy is to hold a light - short position, with support at 5856 and resistance at 5912 [13]. Eggs - The eggs 2506 contract rebounds slightly after a sharp decline, but the downward trend remains. The high egg - laying hen inventory, slow culling progress, and weak demand after the May Day holiday cause this. The strategy is to hold a light - short position, with support at 2880 and resistance at 2902 [14][18]. Cotton - The cotton 2509 contract rebounds due to the expected Sino - US tariff agreement, but the weak downstream demand limits the rebound. The strategy is to close short positions, and go long if the price stabilizes above the 20 - day moving average, with support at 12700 and resistance at 13000 [17]. Apples - The apples 2510 contract declines in a volatile manner. Although the low cold - storage inventory and possible autumn production reduction support the price, the limited upward momentum and active long - position closing lead to a weak trend. The strategy is to close long positions and pay attention to the support of the 20 - day moving average, with support at 7820 and resistance at 7930 [19]. Soybean No. 1 - The soybean No. 1 2507 contract continues to rebound. The low remaining domestic soybeans and rising local prices drive the futures price up. The strategy is to hold a light - long position, with support at 4204 and resistance at 4300 [21].

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core View of the Report - Crude oil's three major medium - term drivers (supply - demand, macro, and geopolitics) remain bearish, with no sign of reversal. OPEC+ accelerating production increases exacerbates the supply - surplus expectation and increases the medium - and long - term downward pressure on crude oil. Geopolitical factors related to Iran may be a potential short - term variable. For trading strategies, pre - holiday short positions can lower the stop - profit to the high of the day, and after stop - profit, wait for a rebound to go short instead of chasing the short [1]. Summary by Related Catalogs Overall Sector - Crude oil has increased positions and retraced to the previous low. Most energy and chemical products have followed the trend in the past two days. Urea and caustic soda, which have relatively independent trends today, have a short - term bullish structure, while rubber is still seen as a rebound [3]. Crude Oil - **Weekly Fundamental View**: OPEC+ accelerating production increases exacerbates the supply - surplus pressure, which becomes the main medium - term downward driver. Pay attention to whether there are changes in Iranian geopolitical factors in the short term [5]. - **Daily Technical Analysis**: Crude oil has a medium - term downward structure on the daily level and a short - term downward structure on the hourly level. It increased positions and reached a new low today, continuing the downward path, with the upper pressure reference at the 480 level. Pre - holiday remaining short positions can still be held, and the stop - profit can be lowered to the high of the day [5]. Other Energy and Chemical Products Styrene - **Weekly Fundamental View**: It has recently followed the cost - end crude oil fluctuations. - **Daily Technical Analysis**: It has a short - term downward structure on the hourly level. It decreased positions and declined today, continuing the downward path on the hourly cycle. The pressure reference is the high on April 29. Pre - holiday short positions can lower the stop - profit to the high on April 29 [9]. PX - **Weekly Fundamental View**: It has recently followed the cost - end crude oil fluctuations. - **Daily Technical Analysis**: It has a short - term downward structure on the hourly level. It decreased positions and declined with crude oil today. There is no signal on the hourly level, and it turned bearish first on the 15 - minute level. The 15 - minute pressure reference is the high on April 30. The strategy is to go short when it fails to break through the pressure on the hourly cycle [10]. PTA - **Weekly Fundamental View**: It has recently followed the cost - end crude oil fluctuations. - **Daily Technical Analysis**: It has a short - term downward structure on the hourly level. Technically, it increased positions and declined today, breaking below the support of the low on the night of April 25. The hourly cycle turned bearish again. The new pressure level to focus on is the high on April 30. The strategy is to go short when it fails to break through the pressure [13]. PP - **Weekly Fundamental View**: It has recently followed the cost - end crude oil fluctuations. - **Daily Technical Analysis**: It has a short - term downward structure on the hourly level. It increased positions and declined today, continuing the short - term downward path. Pre - holiday remaining short positions can still be held, and the stop - profit can be lowered to the high on April 30 [17]. Urea - **Weekly Fundamental View**: The pre - holiday rumor of export liberalization pushed the futures price to reverse in the short term, but it has not been confirmed. The peak agricultural demand season is over, and there is a possibility of export relaxation, but port inventory verification is still needed. - **Daily Technical Analysis**: It has a short - term upward structure on the hourly level. Technically, it increased positions and rose today. After the short - term structure reversed before the holiday, the new short - term support reference is the low on April 30. The strategy is to consider going long when it does not break through the support [21]. Methanol - **Weekly Fundamental View**: The explosion in the container area of Abbas Port in Iran before the holiday had limited impact. With the resumption of Iranian plant operations, the shipping speed of Middle - East methanol has accelerated, and the import pressure will gradually become prominent. - **Daily Technical Analysis**: It has a downward structure on the hourly level. Technically, it increased positions and reached a new low today, continuing the downward path on the hourly cycle. The pressure level still refers to the high on April 28. The strategy is to look for a reversal pattern when it fails to break through the pressure level on the hourly cycle and go short [24]. Rubber - **Weekly Fundamental View**: The high tire inventory has led to a decline in the tire operating rate. The weekly operating rate of all - steel tires has dropped by 6.2%. However, the futures price has already fully reflected this. The current divergence lies in the verification of the output after the Southeast Asian rubber tapping season. The macro - demand expectation is bearish and difficult to improve. Pay attention to whether there are any abnormalities in the Southeast Asian weather in the short term. - **Daily Technical Analysis**: It has a medium - term downward structure on the daily level and a short - term oscillating structure on the hourly level. Technically, it decreased positions and rebounded today, but in the long run, it is still in an oscillating pattern. The upper pressure still refers to the high on April 8. Recently, it has been doing an oversold repair through narrow - range oscillation by trading time for space. There is no trading opportunity for now [25]. Caustic Soda - **Daily Technical Analysis**: It has a medium - term downward structure on the daily level and a short - term upward structure on the hourly level. It broke through the short - term pressure level of the high on April 25 today, and the short - term structure has reversed. The pre - holiday short positions should stop the loss [29]. Ethylene Glycol - **Daily Technical Analysis**: It has a medium - term downward structure on the daily level and a short - term downward structure on the hourly level. It increased positions and declined today, and the short - term pressure and stop - profit level are lowered to the high on April 30 [32]. Plastic - **Weekly Fundamental View**: It has recently followed the cost - end crude oil fluctuations. - **Daily Technical Analysis**: It has a medium - term downward structure on the daily level and a short - term downward structure on the hourly level. It increased positions and declined today, continuing the downward path. The pressure level is lowered to the high on April 30. Short positions can be held, and the stop - profit refers to the high on April 2 [33].

Report Summary 1. Industry Investment Rating No industry investment rating was provided in the report. 2. Core View After the May Day holiday, the oil and fat sector continued to decline, with palm oil leading the drop. The egg price gap dropped, and the apple price fluctuated greatly. Different agricultural products showed different trends due to various factors such as supply - demand relationships, weather conditions, and policies [2]. 3. Summary by Variety (1) Palm Oil - Key points: The main 2509 contract of palm oil continued to decline after May Day. The production in the palm oil - producing areas increased smoothly, and the inventory was expected to rise. The domestic purchase volume increased and the cost decreased. Technical indicators showed weakness. The recommended strategy was to hold a light - short position, with support at 7880 and resistance at 8000 [3][4] (2) Soybean Oil - Key points: The main 2509 contract of soybean oil oscillated and declined. The external market price dropped, and the domestic supply was expected to improve. Technical indicators turned weak. The recommended strategy was to hold a light - short position, with support at 7714 and resistance at 7742 [5] (3) Soybean Meal - Key points: The main 2509 contract of soybean meal continued to decline with oscillations. The external market price was under pressure, and the domestic supply was expected to increase. Technical indicators were weak. The recommended strategy was to hold a light - short position, with support at 2865 and resistance at 2930 [7] (4) Corn - Key points: The main 2507 contract of corn rose first and then fell with oscillations, but the upward trend remained unchanged. Factors such as low remaining grain, reduced imports, and increased demand supported the price. Technical indicators were strong. The recommended strategy was to hold a light - long position at low prices, with support at 2358 and resistance at 2384 [9] (5) Live Pigs - Key points: The 2509 contract of live pigs first declined and then rose with oscillations, but the downward trend remained. The supply pressure increased, and the demand support was insufficient. Technical indicators showed a downward trend. The recommended strategy was to hold a light - short position at high prices, with support at 13800 and resistance at 14000 [12] (6) Sugar - Key points: The main 2509 contract of sugar opened low and closed high with oscillations. Good sales and approaching peak consumption season supported the price. The price was still under the moving - average pressure. The recommended strategy was short - term trading, with support at 5866 and resistance at 5900 [13][15] (7) Eggs - Key points: The main 2506 contract of eggs continued to decline with a large gap. The supply was sufficient, and the demand decreased during the holiday. Technical indicators were weak. The recommended strategy was to hold a light - short position, with support at 2852 and resistance at 2900 [16] (8) Cotton - Key points: The main 2509 contract of cotton opened high and closed low. The textile industry entered the off - season, and the demand was weak. Technical indicators showed a downward trend. The recommended strategy was to hold a light - short position, with support at 12600 and resistance at 12800 [18] (9) Apples - Key points: The main 2510 contract of apples opened high and closed low with large fluctuations, but the upward trend remained. Good sales during the holiday, low inventory, and possible yield reduction supported the price. Technical indicators showed an upward trend. The recommended strategy was to hold a long position at low prices, with support at 7908 and resistance at 8000 [22] (10) Soybean No.1 - Key points: The main 2507 contract of soybean No.1 rebounded. The reduction of remaining grain supported the price. Technical indicators turned strong. The recommended strategy was to hold a light - long position, with support at 4176 and resistance at 4246 [23][26]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. 2. Core Viewpoints The report analyzes the trends of various agricultural products. The overall situation is that the oil and meal sectors are declining, the pig price is dropping, the corn price is expected to be strong, and different products have different trends based on their supply - demand fundamentals and market factors [1]. 3. Summary by Variety (1) Palm Oil - The main contract 2509 continues to decline. The supply - demand in the palm oil producing areas is increasing, but the supply - side pressure is greater. High - frequency data shows that the production in Malaysia from April 1 - 20 increased by 9% - 20%, and the export from April 1 - 25 increased by 3% - 15%. The market expects the MPOB to raise the inventory in May. The lack of progress in Indonesia's B40 policy weakens consumer confidence. The domestic import profit is repaired, and the increase in supply expectations and weak demand pressure the price [1][2]. - Technically, the main contract 2509 breaks through the downside, the MACD red column shrinks, and the strategy is to hold a light - short position. The support is 8100, and the resistance is 8170 [3]. (2) Soybean Oil - The main contract 2509 continues to decline. The concentrated arrival of imported soybeans in China increases the supply expectation. The total import volume in the second quarter may reach 4150 tons, doubling that of the first quarter. It is expected that the oil mill's operating rate will continue to rise after May Day, and the tight supply situation will be alleviated [4]. - Technically, the main contract 2509 falls below most moving averages, and the strategy is to hold a light - short position. The support is 7756, and the resistance is 7814 [4]. (3) Soybean Meal - The main contract 2509 continues to decline. The downstream market's acceptance of high - priced soybean meal decreases, the spot price drops, and the trading volume plummets. With the arrival of imported Brazilian soybeans, the oil mill's operating rate will increase, and the supply is expected to improve [6]. - Technically, the main contract 2509 has three consecutive declines, the MACD green column expands significantly, and the strategy is to hold a light - short position. The support is 2928, and the resistance is 2990 [6]. (4) Corn - The main contract 2507 rises and then falls. After continuous price increases, there is profit - taking by long - positions. However, the remaining grain in the domestic main production areas is low, the drought in the wheat - producing areas raises the wheat price, reducing its substitution advantage for corn. The significant decrease in corn imports also supports the price [8]. - Technically, the main contract 2507 is still above the moving averages, the MACD red column expands, and the strategy is to go long at low positions. The support is 2350, and the resistance is 2370 [8]. (5) Live Pigs - The main contract 2509 continues to decline significantly. The breeding side accelerates the slaughter rhythm due to the inverted standard - fat price difference, increasing the supply. The downstream demand lacks increment, and the difficulty of selling white - striped pigs in the wholesale market pressures the price [11]. - Technically, the main contract 2509 breaks through the downside, the MACD green column expands, and the strategy is to hold a light - short position. The support is 13800, and the resistance is 14000 [11]. (6) Sugar - The main contract 2509 gaps down. The increase in sugar production in Thailand and Brazil pressures the international ICE raw sugar price. The rainfall in Guangxi, China, eases the drought, and the opening of the additional import profit window may increase the import pressure [12][13][15]. - The strategy is to close long positions. The support is 5887, and the resistance is 5997 [15]. (7) Eggs - The main contract 2506 has a narrow - range oscillation, and the main trend is still weak. The May Day stocking is basically over, the market trading slows down, and the inventory increases. The egg - laying hen inventory is at a high level and will continue to grow [16]. - Technically, the main contract 2506 is still pressured by the short - term moving averages, the MACD shows a dead - cross sign, and the strategy is to go short at high positions. The support is 2960, and the resistance is 2998 [16]. (8) Cotton - The main contract 2509 breaks through the downside. The "Golden March and Silver April" season in the domestic textile industry is ending, the new orders are low, the sales slow down, and the inventory increases. The new cotton sowing progresses rapidly, and the climate in Xinjiang is favorable, with a sowing progress of 78.3% [18]. - Technically, the main contract 2509 breaks through the moving averages, and the strategy is to hold a light - short position. The support is 12700, and the resistance is 12900 [18]. (9) Apples - The main contract 2510 rebounds after a decline and remains at a high level. The May Day stocking is ending, the market in the production area is stable, the inventory is low (309.98 million tons as of April 24), and the sales in the sales area are stable [20]. - The strategy is to hold long positions. The support is 7886, and the resistance is 8070 [20]. (10) Soybeans (Domestic) - The main contract 2507 declines continuously. The decline of imported soybean prices drags down domestic soybeans, and the demand in the sales area is weak. The shift of the imported soybean supply to a loose situation weakens the long - position sentiment [23]. - Technically, the main contract 2507 approaches the 20 - day moving average. The strategy is to pay attention to the support of the 20 - day moving average and go short if it is broken. The support is 4150, and the resistance is 4208 [23].

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core View of the Report - Crude oil's medium - term drivers (supply - demand, macro, and geopolitics) still point downward, with a bearish outlook. Short - term upward repair is limited, and the medium - to long - term oversupply pattern persists. During the May Day holiday, there is a high probability of a decline in crude oil prices, and it is recommended to hold a light position before the holiday or use some options instead [1]. - For the energy and chemical sector, profitable positions can be partially liquidated before the holiday, and for those that have exited, wait for post - holiday opportunities [3]. Summary by Related Catalogs Crude Oil - **Weekly Fundamental View**: Kazakhstan prioritizes national interests over OPEC+ interests, and some OPEC+ members want to accelerate production increase in June, leading to an expected supply surplus [4]. - **Daily Technical Analysis**: The daily - level shows a medium - term downward structure, and the hourly - level shows a short - term downward structure. After a long - negative candlestick with reduced positions today, the downward structure is further confirmed, but there may be short - term fluctuations. The upper pressure is around 499. Last week's short positions can still be held, with the stop - profit moved down to today's high, and partial positions can be exited before the holiday. Pay attention to the opportunity of buying options after the implied volatility drops [4]. Styrene - **Weekly Fundamental View**: The upside of crude oil is limited, and the cost side is under pressure. The supply and demand of pure benzene are both weak, and the supply of styrene is expected to increase while the inventory is high, resulting in a bearish fundamental outlook [7]. - **Daily Technical Analysis**: The hourly - level shows a short - term downward structure. After today's intraday oscillation, the downward path continues. The pressure is the high on April 23, and the stop - loss for last week's short positions still refers to the high on April 25. Partial positions can be liquidated before the holiday [7]. PX - **Weekly Fundamental View**: The upside of crude oil is limited, and the cost side is under pressure. The terminal textile demand is weak, and the polyester production at a high level is under pressure to decline [11]. - **Daily Technical Analysis**: The hourly - level shows a short - term downward structure. It fell with crude oil today, with no signal at the hourly - level but a downward turn at the 15 - minute level. The pressure is the high on April 8. The strategy is to short on the reversal pattern without breaking through the pressure, but it is not recommended to open new positions before the holiday [11]. PTA - **Weekly Fundamental View**: The upside of crude oil is limited, and the cost side is under pressure. The short - term demand is strong, but the medium - term demand is under pressure due to high tariffs on textiles in the US [14]. - **Daily Technical Analysis**: The hourly - level shows a short - term upward structure. It fell with reduced positions today but did not break below the low on the night of April 25. There is no opportunity to enter short positions again for now [14]. PP - **Weekly Fundamental View**: PP enters the maintenance season from late April to May, with a decline in the operating rate expected. The demand is under pressure due to the end of the peak season and export tariffs, and the cost side is under pressure. The fundamentals are bearish [17]. - **Daily Technical Analysis**: The hourly - level shows a short - term downward structure. After today's intraday oscillation, the downward trend remains. Last week's short positions can still be held, with the stop - profit referring to the high on April 16, and partial positions can be liquidated before the holiday [17]. Urea - **Weekly Fundamental View**: The restart of short - term shutdown devices will maintain a high supply, while the summer fertilizer preparation demand has not started, and the export policy is tight. The short - term supply is strong and the demand is weak, with a bearish outlook [21]. - **Daily Technical Analysis**: The hourly - level shows a short - term downward structure. After a new low with increased positions today, the trend remains unchanged. Last week's short positions can continue to be held, with the stop - profit referring to the high on April 18, and partial profit - taking can be done before the holiday [21]. Methanol - **Weekly Fundamental View**: Due to tariff pressure, the export demand of methanol's downstream products is weak, and the demand has declined significantly. Although there are maintenance of inland devices, the supply is expected to increase. The supply and demand are weak, with a bearish outlook [22]. - **Daily Technical Analysis**: The hourly - level shows a downward structure. After a decline with reduced positions today, the downward trend remains. The pressure level refers to the high on April 7. The strategy is to short on the reversal pattern without breaking through the pressure, but there is no good opportunity to open new positions before the holiday [24]. Rubber - **Weekly Fundamental View**: The weekly fundamentals change little, and it follows the tariff sentiment. The spot price above 15,000 is at a high level in recent years. After the Southeast Asian rubber - tapping season, the supply is expected to be loose. The domestic tire inventory is high, and the substitution of synthetic rubber for natural rubber is expected to increase. The medium - term outlook is bearish [25]. - **Daily Technical Analysis**: The daily - level shows a medium - term downward structure, and the hourly - level shows a short - term downward structure. After today's intraday oscillation, it is in a narrow - range oscillation for oversold repair. There is no opportunity after the previous short positions took profit [25]. Caustic Soda - **Daily Technical Analysis**: The daily - level shows a medium - term downward structure, and the hourly - level shows a short - term downward structure. After today's intraday oscillation, the downward path remains. Last week's short positions can still be held, with the stop - profit referring to the high on April 25 [28]. Ethylene Glycol - **Daily Technical Analysis**: The daily - level shows a medium - term downward structure, and the hourly - level shows a short - term downward structure. After today's intraday oscillation, there is no signal of trend reversal. The short - term pressure level is the high on April 7. After the previous short positions took profit last week, it is recommended to wait and see [29][32]. Plastic - **Weekly Fundamental View**: The upside of crude oil is limited, and the cost side is under pressure. The peak season of agricultural film is over, the demand is weak, and the supply remains high. The supply is strong and the demand is weak, with a bearish outlook [33]. - **Daily Technical Analysis**: The daily - level shows a medium - term downward structure, and the hourly - level shows a short - term downward structure. After today's intraday oscillation, the downward path continues. The pressure level is the high on April 7. Short positions can be held, with the stop - profit referring to the high on April 23, and partial profit - taking can be done before the holiday [33].

本报告完成时间为 2025 年 4 月 28 日 18:00 来源：公开信息、同花顺 iFinD、东方财富 Choice 及钢联数据 市场有风险 投资需谨慎 观点和信息仅供参考之用 不构成任何人的投资建议 务必阅读文章末尾免责声明 作者： 金海东 从业资格号: F03088653 交易咨询从业资格号：Z0016875 原油盘面仍然偏弱,注意假期内时间节点 天富期货有限公司 期货投资咨询业务许可 证监许可[2011]1450 号 摘要: 原油中期三大驱动:供需、宏观、地缘目前均未看到反转,仍指 向下方,偏空看待。短期市场经过海外风险偏好的改善。原油随风险 资产有一定上行修复,但对关税战的判断仍是短期中美不会有缓和出 现。本周美国一系列经济数据公布将逐步反应关税影响,如数据走弱, 宏观衰退逻辑或重新回归。此外在哈萨克斯坦对原油产量的表态减弱 了补偿减产协议的最终执行效果。供应压力或进一步提前,原油市场 中长期过剩格局依然存在。 关键时间节点上,五一假期中除了美国一系列经济数据公布,5 月 3 日美伊的第四轮谈判,5 月 5 日 OPEC+会议也可能从供应端形成 新的驱动。目前看伊朗有达成协议的意愿, OPEC+也 ...

天富期货有限公司 期货投资咨询业务许可 证监许可[2011]1450 号 本报告完成时间为 2025 年 4 月 25 日 18:00 来源：公开信息、同花顺 iFinD、东方财富 Choice 及钢联数据 此外围绕伊朗的中东地缘方面,目前美伊两轮会谈结束,谈判未 破裂,同时有特朗普否决以色列对伊朗设施的袭击,短期地缘暂未被 交易,但对伊朗有新一轮制裁,仍需需跟踪美伊谈判进展,本周末将 有第三轮谈判。如果谈判结果较差,未来地缘影响加大的时间节点在 5 月初(特朗普给伊朗信件并提出的两个月内达成新核协议的最后期 限）。 板块综述 原油日内震荡,仍是不过压力逢高空思路。能化各品种今日总体 仍弱于原油,eb 再有试空机会，橡胶虽然收盘价变化不大，但冲高 回落下, 小时周期打到止盈,按计划离场。部分品种: px、pta、eg 前日止损止盈后需寻找新的进场机会,未止损的品种:PP、尿素、塑 料空单仍能持有。 (一) 原油: 市场有风险 投资需谨慎 观点和信息仅供参考之用 不构成任何人的投资建议 务必阅读文章末尾免责声明 作者： 金海东 从业资格号: F03088653 交易咨询从业资格号：Z0016875 原油阶段性反 ...