降息预期下贵金属仍可偏强 一、核心观点：降息预期下贵金属仍可偏强。 （一）观点摘要 受到美国总统特朗普声称免职美联储理事库克及降息预期升温 的影响，上周一贵金属上涨，黄金刷新历史新高，随后几天高位震荡， 技术结构呈良好的多头格局。 9 月市场关注点在美国的非农数据和利率决议，非农数据大幅下 跌，就业低迷，降息预期增加，利空美元，支撑环境不断创新高。 此外，地区冲突也是不可忽视的重要风险，中东、俄乌仍没有缓 和迹象，最近南美委瑞内拉地区也出现摩擦风险。贵金属的避险属性 得到强化，关注多头思路。 风险提示：美国利率决议的不确定性，地缘政治的不确定性等 （二）策略：黄金 2510 合约、白银 2510 逢低做多操作。 合约：黄金 2510 强弱：偏多 建仓参考区间：818-820 防守参考区间：807-808 第一目标参考区间：835-838 第二目标参考区间：845-850 建仓参考区间：9550-9580 防守参考区间：9450-9460 第一目标参考区间：9700-9720 第二目标参考区间：9950-10000 合约：白银 2510 强弱：激进低多方案 建仓参考区间：9690-9700 防守参考区间：963 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The soybean meal market is in a state of "strong expectation, weak reality", with prices showing a range - bound oscillation. The uncertainty in Sino - US economic and trade relations and the expected tight supply of imported soybeans in the long - term support the price, while the current high - volume arrivals of imported soybeans, high crushing volume of oil mills, and increasing inventory limit the upward space [1][2][6]. - The palm oil market is expected to have a relatively strong oscillation. The slowdown in the increase of Malaysian palm oil production and strong exports support the price, but the sharp decline in crude oil prices drags down the oil market, and the market is waiting for the MPOB monthly supply - demand report [1][9][11]. - The egg market rebounds weakly and then weakens again. The approaching Mid - Autumn Festival and National Day boost the demand and egg prices, but the high inventory of laying hens, increased egg - laying rate due to temperature drop, and the release of cold - stored eggs suppress the price [1][19][24]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Soybean Meal - **Market Situation**: In the first week of September, soybean meal futures prices oscillated and rose, showing a range - bound characteristic. The market is in a state of "strong expectation, weak reality", with the main 2601 contract oscillating between 3030 - 3080 [2][6]. - **Influencing Factors**: - The excellent rate of US soybeans has declined, but a high yield is still expected. The export demand is a concern, with the total sales of new US soybeans down about 29% year - on - year [3]. - The cost of imported soybeans is high. China has not purchased next - year's US soybeans but has increased imports from Brazil. The export premium of Brazilian soybeans is at a high level, supporting the price of soybean meal from the cost side [4][5]. - Oil mills maintain a high crushing volume, and the inventory of soybean meal is rising. In September, the arrival of imported soybeans is still expected to be high, and the inventory accumulation trend will continue [6]. - Technically, the main 2601 contract of soybean meal is in a range - bound state on the daily - line level, with resistance at the upper edge of the range [7]. - **Operation Strategy**: For the 2601 contract of soybean meal, pay attention to short - selling operations at the upper edge of the range, with the target range of 3075 - 3085, the defense reference range of 3100 - 3120, the first target of 3050 - 3060, and the second target of 3030 - 3040 [8]. 3.2 Palm Oil - **Market Situation**: In the first week of September, palm oil futures prices oscillated and rose. The price was boosted by strong export demand for Malaysian palm oil and a slowdown in production growth, but the sharp decline in crude oil prices limited the increase. The market is waiting for the MPOB supply - demand report [9][11]. - **Influencing Factors**: - In August, the production data of Malaysian palm oil was inconsistent, but the export was strong, which may limit the increase in inventory at the end of August [12]. - India's palm oil imports in August increased sharply to 99.3 tons, a 16% month - on - month increase, supporting the Malaysian palm oil futures price [13]. - The palm oil producing areas in Malaysia are affected by diseases, and Indonesia has taken measures against illegal palm plantations, which support the palm oil market [14][15]. - The domestic palm oil inventory has increased, and the demand is mainly for essential needs. Although the consumption has increased due to the approaching school opening and festivals, the demand is still limited by the inverted price difference between soybean oil and palm oil [16]. - Technically, the main 2601 contract of palm oil oscillates around the short - term moving average, runs far above the medium - term moving average, and the MACD is above the zero - axis, with the green column continuing [17]. - **Operation Strategy**: For the 2601 contract of palm oil, pay attention to long - buying operations at low prices, with the target range of 9380 - 9400, the defense reference range of 9330 - 9350, the first target of 9450 - 9480, and the second target of 9500 - 9520 [18]. 3.3 Eggs - **Market Situation**: In the first week of September, egg futures prices oscillated and rebounded, but the rebound space was limited, and the prices then fell back. The market is expected to continue to be weak and may test the previous low again [19][24]. - **Influencing Factors**: - The inventory of laying hens is at a high level, with 13.64 billion laying hens in August, and the new - laying pressure is large. The egg - laying rate has increased with the temperature drop, increasing the supply [19][21]. - The enthusiasm for culling old hens remains high, and the number of old hens sold has reached a two - and - a - half - month high, but the overall industry capacity reduction is not obvious [20][21]. - The seasonal demand has boosted the egg price, and the inventory in the production and circulation links has decreased [21]. - The continuous release of cold - stored eggs increases the supply pressure, suppressing the rebound space of egg prices [22]. - The demand in the peak season has improved, but the sustainability is insufficient due to the high supply pressure [23][24]. - Technically, the main 2511 contract of eggs has broken through the moving - average system, the rebound is blocked, and the MACD runs far below the zero - axis, showing a weak technical pattern [25]. - **Operation Strategy**: For the 2511 contract of eggs, pay attention to short - selling operations, with the target range of 3020 - 3036, the defense reference range of 3076 - 3100, the first target of 2980 - 2990, and the second target of 2950 - 2960 [26].

Report Industry Investment Rating - No specific industry investment rating is provided in the report [1] Core Viewpoints - In September, the US non - farm payroll data was far lower than market expectations, leading to a weaker US dollar, a decline in US stocks, an increase in economic recession expectations, and pressure on industrial product prices. The Shanghai Futures Exchange tin inventory has slightly increased since early August and remains at a relatively high level in the long - term. Affected by supply - side news in recent years, the price has remained high. With no obvious supply - side news recently, there is an expectation of short - term volatile decline. The strategy is to focus on high - level volatile short - selling operations for the Shanghai tin 2510 contract [1] Summary by Directory Fundamental Analysis - **Inventory**: The LME tin inventory rose from a low of 1630 tons on August 18 to 2225 tons on September 3, still at a relatively low level. The Shanghai Futures Exchange inventory increased slightly from 7215 tons on September 1 to 7397 tons on September 5 and remains at a medium - high level in the long - term [1][2] - **Demand**: From February to July 2025, the apparent demand was at a relatively high level compared to the same period, especially in July when the data was higher than historical levels, showing an off - season non - off - season state. However, the spot - end price was not particularly strong, maintaining a high - level volatile rhythm [4] - **Other Factors**: A demonstration took place in Indonesia at the end of August, but the official statement said it did not affect the mining area's production and operation. The price soared on August 29 but quickly fell back on September 1, returning to a volatile pattern. The impact of the unrest in Indonesia on the price has subsided [6] Technical Analysis - The Shanghai tin 2510 contract price oscillated in the range of 271500 - 274500 for many days and then broke below this range on Friday night, with a weakening expectation. With no obvious positive fundamental support, the probability of further price decline increases, and attention should be paid to the volatile downward trend [7]

日度技术追踪：原油日线级别中期下跌结构，小时级别短期下跌 结构。今日增仓新低后减仓反弹，小时级别下跌确立后寻逢高空机会， 上方短期压力关注 489 一线（11 合约）。策略上 15 分钟空单止损后 等待小时级别不过压力反包试空信号出现。 图 1.1：原油 2510 日线图 OPEC+启动第二阶段复产计划， 能化仍偏弱对待 | 品种 | 中期结构 | 短期结构 | 小时周期策略 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 原油 | 偏空 | 偏空 15 | 分钟空单止损后等待小时 | | | | | 级别试空机会 | | EB | 偏空 | 震荡 | 剩余空单持有 | | PX | 震荡 | 偏空 | 部分止盈，剩余空单持有 | | PTA | 震荡 | 偏空 | 空单持有 | | PP | 偏空 | 偏空 | 空单持有 | | 塑料 | 震荡 | 偏多 | 15 分钟空单持有 | | 甲醇 | 偏空 | 偏空 | 剩余空单持有 | | EG | 震荡 | 偏空 | 15 分钟空单持有 | | 橡胶 | 震荡 | 偏多 | 观望 | | PVC | 偏空 | 偏空 | 空单持有 | | BR 橡 ...

Carbonate Lithium Core Viewpoints - This week, the price of carbonate lithium continued to decline, with the main contract dropping 4.40% from last Friday's closing price to 7,426 yuan/ton. The market was bearish at the beginning of the week but rebounded later. Without new drivers, it's expected to remain weak and volatile. Attention should be paid to whether the remaining 7 lithium mines in Yichun with unexpired mining licenses will stop production after September 30 [2]. Strategy Recommendations - The 2511 contract of carbonate lithium is expected to remain weak and volatile. It is recommended to participate with a light position and manage risks [3]. Fundamental Analysis Supply - The weekly production of carbonate lithium increased by 389 tons to 19,419 tons, a 2% week-on-week increase. After some domestic lithium mines and salt lakes stopped production, the overall supply did not decrease due to increased imports and processing of spodumene and new domestic projects. The key is the production status of the 7 mines in Yichun after September 30 [4]. Demand - In the "Golden September and Silver October" peak season, downstream enterprises' production plans are expected to increase. From August 1 - 31, the retail sales of new energy passenger vehicles reached 1.079 million, a 5% year-on-year and 9% month-on-month increase. The demand for energy storage batteries is also rising [5][6]. Inventory - Carbonate lithium continued to reduce inventory in August. The inventory of domestic lithium salt factories was about 30,280 tons, a 12.81% month-on-month and 14.94% year-on-year decrease [7]. Technical Analysis - The Band Winner indicator shows a weak trend. With no significant changes in fundamentals and a balanced supply - demand increase and inventory reduction, it's expected to remain weak and volatile [8]. Polysilicon Core Viewpoints - The polysilicon futures rose sharply on Friday, hitting a 9% daily limit and reaching a new high of 56,735 yuan/ton, a 15.06% weekly increase. With new policies promoting the photovoltaic industry, the polysilicon market is likely to be strong and volatile [12]. Strategy Recommendations - The 2511 contract of polysilicon is expected to remain strong. It is recommended to participate with a light position and manage risks [13]. Fundamental Analysis Supply - The weekly production of polysilicon is increasing. The output in August exceeded 130,000 tons. There are expectations of production and sales restrictions in September, but the implementation is uncertain, and future growth is expected to be limited [14]. Demand - In September, the production plan of domestic silicon wafers was raised for the first time. After the price increase, most silicon wafer enterprises increased their operating rates. The output of battery cells and photovoltaic modules in August also increased, and the September production plans are expected to continue rising [15][16][17]. Technical Analysis - The Band Winner indicator shows a strong trend. Although the polysilicon market has fundamental pressure, with policy support, the market is likely to be strong and volatile due to significant news - related fluctuations [18].

Report Industry Investment Rating There is no information provided in the content about the report industry investment rating. Core View of the Report The report analyzes the market conditions of various energy and chemical products, including crude oil, styrene, rubber, etc. It provides logical analysis and technical tracking for each product, and gives corresponding trading strategies based on the fundamentals and technical analysis. Overall, most products show a bearish or weak fundamental situation, with some products having short - term fluctuations and trading opportunities [1][2][5]. Summary by Related Catalogs (1) Crude Oil - **Logic**: Short - term long and short are deadlocked, with contradictions brewing. After the peak season, demand decline and OPEC+ production increase bring supply pressure. The domestic seasonal demand slowdown makes SC crude oil weaker than the external market. The medium - term fundamental driver is bearish [1][2]. - **Technical Tracking**: The daily - level is in a medium - term downward structure, the hourly - level is in a short - term oscillating structure. After today's rebound, the hourly - level structure is unclear, and the 15 - minute small - cycle turns long. Support at 488 on the 15 - minute level [2]. - **Strategy**: Take profit at the 15 - minute level and look for opportunities to re - enter after the price turns down again [2]. (2) Styrene (EB) - **Logic**: The expectation of long - side anti - involution disappears, high - level inventory accumulates rapidly, and the pattern of high production under high profit is hard to change. There is new device commissioning pressure in September - October. The medium - term fundamental is bearish [5]. - **Technical Tracking**: The hourly - level is in a short - term downward structure. Today, it increased positions and hit a new low with a long negative line, increasing positions by nearly 5%. The short - term pressure on the hourly cycle is at 7025 [5]. - **Strategy**: Hold short positions in the hourly cycle [5]. (3) Rubber - **Logic**: There is no sign of supply increase, import is lower year - on - year, and the short - side lacks logical support in the short term. The long - side also has no upward drive due to high inventory and concerns about tire inventory [8]. - **Technical Tracking**: The daily - level is in a medium - term downward structure, the hourly - level is in a short - term oscillating structure. The 15 - minute pressure is at 16000 [8]. - **Strategy**: Hold short positions in the 15 - minute cycle, with a stop - loss reference of 16000 [8]. (4) Synthetic Rubber (BR) - **Logic**: The fundamental of synthetic rubber is neutral, with no obvious short - term contradiction. In the medium term, pay attention to the suppression of tire enterprise inventory on production and the supply pressure of butadiene [12]. - **Technical Tracking**: The daily - level is in a medium - term oscillating/downward structure, the hourly - level is in a short - term oscillating structure. After a 50% increase in positions last week, it has not reduced positions or formed a short - term structure. The 15 - minute is in a short - term downward structure [13][15]. - **Strategy**: Hold short positions in the 15 - minute cycle, with a stop - loss reference of 11920 [15]. (5) PX - **Logic**: Since last week, PX supply has increased, downstream PTA start - up has declined, and inventory reduction has slowed down. The short - term fundamental has weakened, and more attention should be paid to the cost - side influence of crude oil [18]. - **Technical Tracking**: The hourly - level is in a short - term downward structure. Today, the intraday oscillation center dropped, and the decline has not accelerated. The short - term pressure is at 6900 [18]. - **Strategy**: Hold short positions in the hourly cycle, with a stop - loss reference of 6900 [18]. (6) PTA - **Logic**: Due to some device overhauls, short - term supply has declined, downstream demand has not recovered, and it lacks self - driving force. More attention should be paid to the cost - side influence of crude oil [23]. - **Technical Tracking**: The hourly - level is in a short - term downward structure. Today, the intraday oscillation center dropped. The short - term pressure is at 4800, and there is a short - selling opportunity if there is a reverse - wrapping signal on Friday night or today's morning session [23]. - **Strategy**: Hold short positions in the hourly cycle, with a stop - loss reference of 4800 [23]. (7) PP - **Logic**: The restart of previously overhauled devices and new capacity commissioning increase supply pressure, while demand improvement is limited. The fundamental is weak [25]. - **Technical Tracking**: The hourly - level is in a short - term downward structure. Today, the intraday oscillation center moved down, hitting a new low since July. The short - term decline may accelerate. The hourly - level short - term pressure is at 7090, and the 15 - minute short - cycle pressure is at 6990 [25]. - **Strategy**: Hold short positions in the hourly cycle [25]. (8) Methanol - **Logic**: Domestic methanol production has decreased slightly month - on - month but remains at a historical high year - on - year. Overseas methanol also maintains high start - up. The port inventory has been accumulating significantly and reached a 5 - year high. The short - term driver is bearish [28]. - **Technical Tracking**: The daily - level is in a medium - term downward/oscillating structure, and the short - term is in a downward structure. Today, it oscillated and failed to break through the short - term pressure at 2400 [28]. - **Strategy**: Hold the remaining short positions in the hourly cycle [28]. (9) PVC - **Logic**: Supply remains high, real - estate demand is weak, and inventory continues to accumulate. Both the current situation and the expectation of the fundamental are bearish [31]. - **Technical Tracking**: The daily - level is in a medium - term upward structure, and the hourly - level is in a short - term downward structure. Today, the decline continued, and the short - term pressure is at 4965 [31]. - **Strategy**: Hold short positions in the hourly cycle [31]. (10) Ethylene Glycol (EG) - **Logic**: The port inventory has decreased month - on - month, making its fundamental stronger than other energy and chemical products. But with the increase in domestic start - up, it is expected to enter an inventory - accumulation cycle. The short - term reality is strong, and the medium - term expectation is bearish [35]. - **Technical Tracking**: The daily - level is in a medium - term oscillating/downward structure, and the hourly - level is in a downward structure. Today, it increased positions and volume with a long negative line, and the decline may accelerate. The 15 - minute pressure is at 4375 [35]. - **Strategy**: Wait for the end signal of the rebound to try short - selling [35]. (11) Plastic - **Logic**: The improvement of PE demand in the peak season is slow, and the fundamental driving force is general [37]. - **Technical Tracking**: The daily - level is in a medium - term oscillating/downward structure, and the hourly - level is in a downward structure. Today, it oscillated. The short - term pressure is at 7365, and the 15 - minute small - cycle pressure is at 7305. There was a standard short - selling signal last night on the 15 - minute cycle [37]. - **Strategy**: There is no entry signal in the hourly cycle, and there is a short - selling opportunity on the 15 - minute cycle [37]. (12) Soda Ash - **Logic**: The disappearance of the anti - involution expectation and the approaching of the 09 delivery make soda ash return to the downward drive brought by high production, high supply, and high inventory. The real - estate downturn affects glass demand, and the supply pressure increases after the price is driven up by speculation. The fundamental is bearish [40]. - **Technical Tracking**: The hourly - level is in a downward structure. Today, it oscillated, and the downward structure remained unchanged. The short - term pressure is at 1320 [40]. - **Strategy**: Hold short positions in the hourly cycle [40]. (13) Caustic Soda - **Logic**: The increase in chlor - alkali enterprise overhauls has led to a decline in start - up month - on - month, but it is still at a high level year - on - year. The speculation on transportation restrictions during the September 3 parade is coming to an end. The short - term downward drive is weakening, but the medium - term still faces high - supply pressure [43]. - **Technical Tracking**: The hourly - level is regarded as oscillating. Today, it had a long negative line with decreasing positions and volume, and the long - side main force left the market. The 15 - minute cycle turned down, and there is a short - selling opportunity at the end of the session [43]. - **Strategy**: Wait and see in the hourly cycle, and there is a short - selling signal at the end of the 15 - minute cycle with a stop - loss reference of 2690 [43].

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content Core Viewpoints - The lithium carbonate main contract has experienced significant fluctuations due to frequent disturbances on the supply side and needs time for digestion and consolidation in the short term. If the supply - side disturbance expectations remain unchanged, the supply - demand gap is expected to widen in September, and prices may rise irrationally. Attention should be paid to whether the other 7 mining enterprises in Yichun with unexpired mining licenses will stop production after September 30 [4]. - In the short term, lithium carbonate may weaken next week, and investors should wait for opportunities to go long at low prices [4]. Summary by Directory 1. August Market Review - In August, the lithium carbonate main contract first rose and then fell, with the futures price breaking through 90,000 yuan/ton at its highest. Supply - side news had many disturbances, but the actual impact on the fundamentals was small, and price fluctuations were mainly due to futures market capital games [5]. 2. Fundamental Analysis Supply - In August, despite supply - side disturbances, the monthly output of lithium carbonate reached a new high due to the increase in capacity utilization and hedging by external - purchasing enterprises. As of August 29, the weekly output decreased to 19,000 tons, with different trends in production from different sources. The import volume has declined for three consecutive months but is expected to increase in the second half of the year. Attention should be paid to the potential production halt of 7 mining enterprises in Yichun after September 30 [6][7]. Demand - In August, the production of lithium iron phosphate is expected to be 311,400 tons, a 7% month - on - month increase, and the production of ternary cathode materials is expected to increase by about 3% to 70,800 tons. In the power market in July, new energy vehicle production and sales showed seasonal slowdown, and the power battery loading volume decreased. In the energy storage market, demand orders are good, with saturated production schedules in September and October, and high - price transactions for forward orders. The industry's anti - low - price initiative is expected to improve profitability [8][9]. Inventory - As of the week of August 29, domestic inventory decreased slightly, with social inventory still exceeding 140,000 tons. Inventory is flowing from processing plants to downstream sectors, and warehouse receipts are rising after centralized cancellations [10]. 3. Technical Analysis - The 2 - hour cycle Band Winner indicator of the lithium carbonate 2511 contract shows a green line, blue ribbon, and green ladder, indicating that the contract may weaken in the short term. The 2 - hour cycle long - short dividing water level overnight is 80,960 yuan/ton [11].

Report Industry Investment Rating - The report suggests a weak outlook for the energy and chemical industry [1] Core Viewpoint - The energy and chemical market lacks substantial positive factors, with the medium - term downward drive for crude oil due to the approaching peak - season demand inflection point and OPEC+ over - production remaining clear. Different products in the industry have varying fundamentals and technical trends, with most having a bearish or cautious outlook [2][3] Summary by Product Crude Oil - Logic: Short - term macro sentiment provides some support, but there is no real positive news. The medium - term downward drive is clear due to demand and supply factors. - Technicals: Daily - level medium - term/downward structure, hourly - level short - term upward structure. Intraday oscillation, with short - term pressure at 487. - Strategy: Hold overnight 15 - minute level short positions, with a stop - profit reference at 487 [2][3] Benzene Ethylene (EB) - Logic: Fundamentals have not improved significantly. High production and inventory, and new device commissioning pressure in September - October will keep supply high. - Technicals: Hourly - level short - term downward structure. Intraday oscillation, with short - term pressure at 7285. - Strategy: Hold hourly - cycle short positions [6] Rubber - Logic: Southeast Asian rainy - season production has not increased significantly, imports have slowed, and domestic natural rubber inventory is decreasing but still at a historical high. Downstream tire demand remains stable. - Technicals: Daily - level medium - term downward, hourly - level short - term downward structure. Look for short - selling signals after a rebound fails to break through the 15,950 pressure on the 15 - minute cycle. - Strategy: Look for short - selling signals on the 15 - minute cycle [9] Synthetic Rubber (BR) - Logic: Cost - end butadiene supply is abundant, with port inventory rebounding. However, downstream tire demand is stable, and short - term sentiment is strong due to capacity - reduction speculation. - Technicals: Daily - level medium - term oscillation/downward structure, hourly - level short - term oscillation structure. After significant position - increasing this week, the hourly - level fluctuation has increased. The 15 - minute cycle has turned bullish again, with support at 11,900. - Strategy: Stop loss on yesterday's 15 - minute short positions and look for new entry opportunities after a new downward trend [13] PX - Logic: PX profit has recovered, and plant operation will increase after the maintenance peak. Demand from the polyester industry is rising with the peak season approaching, resulting in a short - term improvement in fundamentals. - Technicals: Hourly - level short - term downward structure. After breaking through the short - term support at 6915 today, it has turned bearish on the hourly level. - Strategy: Look for short - selling signals after a rebound fails to break through the pressure on the hourly cycle [16][19] PTA - Logic: PTA fundamentals have improved recently, with supply pressure decreasing and downstream demand increasing. However, the medium - term excess expectation of crude oil and short - term anti - involution sentiment are concerns. - Technicals: Hourly - level short - term downward structure. Today, it has declined with increased positions, continuing the downward trend. Short - term pressure is at 4840. - Strategy: Look for short - selling signals after a rebound fails to break through the pressure on the hourly cycle [22] PP - Logic: New capacity is being put into operation, and downstream demand is weak, but short - term market sentiment in the energy and chemical sector is bullish. - Technicals: Hourly - level short - term downward structure. Intraday oscillation, with a short - term downward trend on the 15 - minute cycle. - Strategy: Hold hourly - cycle short positions [24] Methanol - Logic: Domestic supply and demand are both strong, but the rapid increase in port inventory due to Middle - East shipments is putting pressure on the market. - Technicals: Daily - level medium - term downward/oscillation, short - term downward structure. Intraday oscillation without changing the downward trend. Short - term pressure is at 2400. - Strategy: Continue to hold remaining hourly - cycle short positions [27] PVC - Logic: Supply remains high, demand is weak, and inventory is increasing, resulting in a bearish fundamental outlook. - Technicals: Daily - level medium - term upward structure, hourly - level short - term downward structure. Intraday oscillation without changing the downward structure. Short - term pressure is at 5060. - Strategy: Hold hourly - cycle short positions [31] Ethylene Glycol (EG) - Logic: Polyester demand is rising, domestic operation has declined, and port inventory is low, making its fundamentals relatively strong compared to other energy and chemical products. - Technicals: Daily - level medium - term oscillation/downward structure, hourly - level upward structure. Intraday oscillation without breaking through the level, and the short - term trend has not reversed. Short - term support is at 4455. - Strategy: Observe on the hourly level [32] Plastic - Logic: PE operation has declined, and downstream demand is weak. However, market sentiment is bullish due to energy and chemical sector sentiment and South Korean capacity - reduction speculation. - Technicals: Daily - level medium - term oscillation/downward structure, hourly - level downward structure. Intraday oscillation continuing the downward trend. Short - term pressure is at 7415. - Strategy: Look for short - selling signals after a rebound fails to break through the pressure on the hourly cycle [35] Soda Ash - Logic: Supply remains high, and demand from the glass industry, especially speculative demand, is weak. Inventory pressure is large, and the fundamental outlook is bearish. - Technicals: Hourly - level downward structure. Intraday oscillation without changing the downward structure. Short - term pressure is at 1350. - Strategy: Hold short positions [39] Caustic Soda - Logic: On one hand, anti - involution sentiment and potential transportation restrictions during the 9.3 parade may lead to a reduction in production. On the other hand, its fundamentals have strengthened recently, but the short - term upward potential is limited due to high supply. - Technicals: Hourly - level upward structure. Intraday oscillation, and the upward trend has not reversed. Short - term support is at 2670. - Strategy: Observe on the hourly cycle [40][41]

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided in the content. 2. Core View of the Report The decline of crude oil has temporarily paused due to Powell's dovish stance and a significant drawdown in EIA inventories. However, there is no substantial positive news in the crude oil market, and the medium - term downward pressure driven by the approaching peak - season demand inflection point and OPEC+ over - production remains clear. [1][2] 3. Summary by Commodity (1) Crude Oil - **Logic**: The unexpected significant decline in EIA weekly inventories and Powell's dovish stance have led to a short - term halt in the decline of crude oil. The medium - term and short - term structures are both bearish. [1] - **Technical Analysis**: The daily - level shows a medium - term downward structure, and the hourly - level shows a short - term downward structure. The intraday performance on the day was volatile, with the short - term pressure above the hourly - level still referring to the 494 line. [2] - **Strategy**: Hold short positions on the hourly cycle. [1][2] (2) Styrene (EB) - **Logic**: The fundamentals of styrene have not improved significantly. Although non - integrated plants are still at a loss, the weekly production of styrene has reached a new high both year - on - year and month - on - month under the high profits of integrated plants. The supply growth is faster than the demand growth this year, resulting in a historically high inventory. In the future, from September to October, it will face the pressure of new plant commissioning, and the high - supply pressure will continue. [6] - **Technical Analysis**: The hourly - level shows a short - term downward structure. It rose and then fell on the day, and the 15 - minute small cycle changed from rising to falling again. There are also signs of breaking the upward trend at the hourly - level. Temporarily focus on the 7380 line as the pressure on the 15 - minute small cycle. [6] - **Strategy**: Hold the remaining short positions on the hourly cycle, and look for short - selling signals on the intraday when the price is below the 15 - minute pressure. [6] (3) Rubber - **Logic**: The production in the Southeast Asian rainy season has not increased significantly, and imports have slowed down. The domestic natural rubber inventory has started to decline, but it is still at a historically high level year - on - year. The downstream tire demand has not weakened, and the short - term fundamentals of rubber have improved. [9] - **Technical Analysis**: The daily - level shows a medium - term downward structure, and the hourly - level shows a short - term downward structure. It increased in volume on the day and tested the short - term pressure at the 15950 line again, but failed to break through effectively. [9] - **Strategy**: Hold short positions on the hourly cycle, with the stop - loss reference at the 15950 line. [9] (4) Synthetic Rubber (BR) - **Logic**: On the cost side, a large amount of butadiene has arrived at the port, and the previously low port inventory has rebounded rapidly. Coupled with the commissioning of new plants, the fundamentals of butadiene are still bearish. However, the downstream tire demand has not weakened, and combined with the speculation of capacity reduction in the energy and chemical sector and the elimination of South Korean plant capacity last week, the short - term sentiment is strong. [13] - **Technical Analysis**: The daily - level shows a medium - term oscillating/downward structure, and the hourly - level shows a short - term upward structure. It increased in volume and position on the day and stood above the short - term pressure, with the short - term support below at the 11600 line. First, focus on the 11830 support on the 15 - minute upward structure. [13] - **Strategy**: Stop the loss of short positions on the hourly cycle. [13] (5) PX - **Logic**: The profit of PX has recovered, and the operation rate will gradually increase after the peak of plant maintenance. On the demand side, the operation rate of polyester has also increased with the arrival of the peak season. Both supply and demand are booming, and the short - term fundamentals have improved. [17] - **Technical Analysis**: The hourly - level shows a short - term upward structure. It was oscillating on the day, with a bullish short - term structure. Focus on the 6915 line as the short - term support. [17] - **Strategy**: Observe on the hourly cycle. [17] (6) PTA - **Logic**: The fundamentals of PTA have been continuously improving recently. On the supply side, due to the increase in unexpected maintenance, the operation rate has declined month - on - month, and the supply pressure is low. The downstream terminals are gradually entering the peak season, and the operation rate has rebounded, with a strong future expectation. The previous inventory accumulation pattern has turned into inventory reduction, and the short - term supply - demand is strong. However, the medium - term oversupply expectation of crude oil on the cost side still exists, and combined with the short - term anti - involution sentiment disturbance, it is recommended to focus on short - term long - position bands, and be cautious with trend positions. [21] - **Technical Analysis**: The hourly - level shows a short - term upward structure. It was oscillating on the day, with a bullish short - term structure. Focus on the 4825 line as the short - term support. [21] - **Strategy**: Observe on the hourly cycle. [21] (7) PP - **Logic**: With the commissioning of new capacity and weak downstream demand, the fundamentals are bearish. However, the short - term market sentiment was bullish last week due to the positive sentiment in the energy and chemical sector. [23] - **Technical Analysis**: The hourly - level shows a short - term downward structure. It was oscillating on the day, with a bullish 15 - minute short - cycle structure, and the hourly - level pressure is far away. [23] - **Strategy**: Partially stop the profit of short positions on the hourly cycle, and re - enter short positions after the 15 - minute cycle turns bearish again. [23] (8) Methanol - **Logic**: The domestic supply and demand are both booming, with high operation rate and high production of methanol coexisting with high operation rate of downstream industries. However, the ships from the Middle East have resumed shipping and arrived at the port, and the expected arrival volume in August is still expected to increase significantly. The port inventory, which has rapidly accumulated to a historical high recently, still exerts great pressure on the market. [26] - **Technical Analysis**: The daily - level shows a medium - term downward/oscillating structure, and the short - term shows a downward structure. It was oscillating on the day without changing the downward structure. Focus on the 2455 line as the short - term pressure above. [26] - **Strategy**: Continue to hold the remaining short positions on the hourly cycle. [26] (9) PVC - **Logic**: The supply remains at a high level, the demand shows no improvement, and the inventory continues to accumulate. The fundamental driving force is still bearish. [30] - **Technical Analysis**: The daily - level shows a medium - term upward structure, and the hourly - level shows a short - term downward structure. It was oscillating on the day without changing the downward structure. The short - term pressure above is at the 5060 line. [30] - **Strategy**: Hold short positions on the hourly cycle. [30] (10) Ethylene Glycol (EG) - **Logic**: On the demand side, the operation rate of polyester has rebounded, and the domestic operation rate has declined month - on - month. Coupled with the low arrival volume of ethylene glycol recently, the low port inventory makes its fundamentals stronger than other energy and chemical products. [31] - **Technical Analysis**: The daily - level shows a medium - term oscillating/downward structure, and the hourly - level shows an upward structure. It increased in volume and position on the day, with a bullish short - term structure. Focus on the 4455 line as the short - term support below. [31] - **Strategy**: Observe on the hourly level. [31] (11) Plastic - **Logic**: The operation rate of PE has declined, but the downstream demand shows no improvement, and the downstream maintains just - in - time inventory replenishment. The fundamental driving force is average. However, the market sentiment was bullish last week due to the positive sentiment in the energy and chemical sector and the speculation of South Korean plant capacity reduction. [34] - **Technical Analysis**: The daily - level shows a medium - term oscillating/downward structure, and the hourly - level downward structure is being tested. It was oscillating and strengthening slightly on the day, testing the previous high pressure. [34] - **Strategy**: Observe on the hourly cycle. [34] (12) Soda Ash - **Logic**: The supply remains at a high level, and on the demand side, except for the rigid demand of glass, the speculative demand has weakened. The inventory pressure of soda ash plants has increased again, and the heavy soda inventory has reached a new historical high. The supply - demand pressure of soda ash is still large, and the anti - involution has no substantial impact on the supply of soda ash. The fundamental driving force is still downward. [38] - **Technical Analysis**: The hourly - level shows a downward structure. It rose and then fell on the day while oscillating, without changing the downward structure. The short - term pressure on the 01 contract is far away. Temporarily look at the 1320 small support on the 15 - minute short - cycle upward structure. [38] - **Strategy**: Hold the remaining short positions. [38] (13) Caustic Soda - **Logic**: On the one hand, the fundamentals of caustic soda are affected by the anti - involution sentiment and the possible restriction of chlorine transportation due to the 9.3 military parade. The characteristics of difficult storage and low storage capacity of hazardous chemicals mean that once the outbound circulation is restricted, the enterprise operation rate and production are expected to decline rapidly. On the other hand, the fundamentals of caustic soda itself have also strengthened recently. However, the short - term bullish expectation has weakened after the 9.3 military parade, and the historically high supply still exerts some pressure, with limited upward space. [40] - **Technical Analysis**: The hourly - level shows an upward structure. It was oscillating on the day, with a bullish hourly - level structure. Focus on the 2670 line as the short - term support below. [42] - **Strategy**: Observe on the hourly cycle. [42]

棉花走高、玉米下挫 （一）棉花：高开高走 一、农产品板块综述 棉花上涨，商业库存不断去化，下游金九银十消费旺季来临，纺 企订单改善，支撑棉价上涨。玉米大跌，进口玉米持续拍卖，部分地 区春玉米上市，小麦饲用替代持续，新玉米丰收预期较强，供应充足， 玉米承压大跌，延续下行趋势。鸡蛋弱势难改，无力反弹，供应端蛋 鸡存栏高企，供应充足，旺季预期落空，需求不振，鸡蛋承压下行。 二、品种策略跟踪 焦点关注：玉米主力 2511 合约大幅收阴，将前日反弹幅度回吐， 期价受到供应充足的压力： 1.中储粮持续拍卖进口玉米，拍卖常态化，市场氛围偏空，部分 地区春玉米上市，现货市场供应充足。小麦饲用替代持续，下游需求 疲弱，深加工亏损，养殖业利润一般，下游大规模补库动力不足，新 玉米丰收预期较强，利空因素压榨玉米期价大幅下跌。 2.大连玉米主力 2511 合约报收长阴，再度跌至均线系统之下， 各均线空头排列，MACD 持续下行，绿柱扩大，技术偏弱，策略上轻 仓空单。主力 2511 合约支撑 2140，阻力 2167。 焦点关注：棉花主力 2601 合约高开高走，增仓上行，触及两周 高点，受到需求旺季来临的提振： 1.棉花商业库存持续 ...