Report Summary 1. Investment Rating The report does not provide an overall industry investment rating. 2. Core View The report analyzes the market conditions of various chemical products, including crude oil, styrene, rubber, and others. It suggests that geopolitical factors are likely to be the main drivers of the market in December. While some products show short - term positive trends, others face supply - demand imbalances and potential risks. Overall, it advises different trading strategies for each product based on their fundamentals and technical analysis [3][5]. 3. Summary by Product Crude Oil - **Logic**: Supply - demand and macro drivers have a weak impact on the market. The mid - term supply surplus is the main trend, but the market still trades based on supply - demand changes. Macro factors are short - term positive, and geopolitical factors are likely to be the main drivers in December. Short - term bullish but difficult to trade due to geopolitical risks; mid - term, look for shorting opportunities after a pulse - type upward movement [4][5]. - **Technical Analysis**: The daily - level shows a mid - term downward structure, and the hourly - level is in a short - term oscillation. Today, it decreased slightly with reduced positions, and the short - term structure remains unchanged. The strategy is to wait and see in the hourly cycle [5]. Styrene - **Logic**: Short - term supply decreased due to increased maintenance after a significant profit decline, and inventory reduction supported the rebound. However, further upward movement requires support from the cost side (crude oil). Mid - term, the port inventory is at a five - year high, and there is a high probability of inventory reaching a new high in February if the demand remains weak after the New Year [8]. - **Technical Analysis**: The hourly - level shows a short - term oscillation structure. Today, it corrected with increased positions, and the structure became unclear. The strategy is to wait and see in the hourly cycle [9]. Rubber - **Logic**: There is no major contradiction in the short - term. Tire demand is unlikely to increase significantly, and the supply side is in the peak tapping season in Southeast Asia. The inventory in Qingdao is seasonally increasing, and there is no obvious upward or downward driver. Consider it as an oscillating market [10]. - **Technical Analysis**: The daily - level shows a mid - term downward structure, and the hourly - level is in a short - term oscillation. Today, it increased with reduced positions, and the hourly - level structure is unclear. The strategy is to wait and see in the hourly cycle [10]. Synthetic Rubber - **Logic**: The core factor is the raw material butadiene. The price of butadiene is low recently, leading to short - term improvement in supply - demand and reduced pressure. However, there is still a risk of liquid chemical inventory over - filling in the mid - term due to high supply and inventory [12]. - **Technical Analysis**: The daily - level shows a mid - term downward structure, and the hourly - level is in a short - term oscillation. Today, it increased with increased positions, and the hourly - level remains in an oscillating state. The strategy is to wait and see in the hourly cycle [12]. PX - **Logic**: The overseas spread has weakened significantly, and the anti - seasonal US aromatics blending oil logic has ended, reducing the upward driving force. However, the supply - demand of PX is still relatively strong among energy - chemical products. Pay attention to the impact of the cost side (crude oil) [17]. - **Technical Analysis**: The hourly - level shows a short - term upward structure. Today, it continued to correct with reduced positions, but the short - term upward structure remains unchanged. The hourly - level support is at 6700. The strategy is to hold long positions in the hourly cycle, with a stop - loss at 6700, and look for secondary entry opportunities for non - entered long positions after the correction ends [17][18]. PTA - **Logic**: The overseas spread has weakened significantly, and the anti - seasonal US aromatics blending oil logic has ended, reducing the upward driving force. PTA continues to reduce inventory, and the short - term supply - demand pressure is not large. Pay attention to the cost side [18]. - **Technical Analysis**: The hourly - level shows a short - term upward structure. Today, it tested the short - term support with reduced positions, and the short - term upward structure remains unchanged. The hourly - level support for the 01 contract is at 4620. The strategy is to hold long positions in the hourly cycle, with a stop - loss at 4620 (01 contract), and look for secondary entry opportunities for non - entered long positions after the correction ends [18]. PP - **Logic**: Supply is at a high level, and demand is weak. The supply - demand is still weak without a reversal driver. Be vigilant about short - term geopolitical risks in crude oil [21]. - **Technical Analysis**: The hourly - level shows a short - term downward structure. Today, it decreased with reduced positions. The short - term downward structure remains, and the short - term pressure above is at 6220. The strategy is to wait and see in the hourly cycle [21]. Methanol - **Logic**: Domestic methanol production is at a high level, and downstream demand is stable but weak. The port inventory has been decreasing, but the rate of decrease slowed down last week, and the inventory is still at a high level. The upward space is limited, and the previous upward driving force has ended. No longer consider short - term long positions [23][25]. - **Technical Analysis**: The daily - level shows a mid - term downward structure, and the short - term is in an oscillation. Today, it oscillated within the day, and the short - term structure is unclear. The 05 contract is weaker than the 01 contract, indicating high inventory pressure. The strategy is to wait and see in the hourly cycle [25]. PVC - **Logic**: There are few future maintenance plans, and high production is maintained. However, the profit has declined, and there are more expectations of production cuts. The demand side (downstream real estate) is not optimistic, and the social inventory is at a high level. The supply - demand has no upward reversal driver, but the valuation is low, so there is no value in chasing short positions [28]. - **Technical Analysis**: The daily - level shows a mid - term downward structure, and the hourly - level shows a short - term downward structure. Today, it decreased with reduced positions. Pay attention to the short - term pressure above at 4445. The strategy is to wait and see in the hourly cycle [28]. Ethylene Glycol - **Logic**: The previous domestic maintenance devices have resumed production, and new production capacity has been put into operation, increasing the supply pressure. Downstream polyester demand is stable, and the inventory accumulation pattern continues. The supply - demand driving force is downward. Be vigilant about short - term geopolitical risks in crude oil [30]. - **Technical Analysis**: The daily - level shows a mid - term downward structure, and the hourly - level shows a downward structure. Today, it oscillated within the day. Pay attention to the short - term pressure above at 3720. The strategy is to wait and see in the hourly cycle [30]. Plastic - **Logic**: Supply is at a high level, and demand is weak. The supply - demand is still weak without a reversal driver. Be vigilant about short - term geopolitical risks in crude oil [32]. - **Technical Analysis**: The daily - level shows a mid - term downward structure, and the hourly - level shows a downward structure. Today, it oscillated within the day. The short - term pressure above is at 6670. The strategy is to wait and see in the hourly cycle [32]. Soda Ash - **Logic**: The high - supply and high - inventory pattern continues, and the downstream glass production lines have cut production, suppressing the demand for soda ash. Although the fundamental downward driving force remains, the cost - performance of holding short positions is reduced [35]. - **Technical Analysis**: The hourly - level shows a downward structure. Today, it decreased with reduced positions, and the downward structure remains unchanged. The short - term pressure above has moved down to 1120. The strategy is to hold the remaining short positions in the hourly cycle cautiously with a stop - profit at 1120 [35]. Caustic Soda - **Logic**: Supply production is at a high level, and the weekly production has increased year - on - year, reaching a new high. It is the off - season for traditional downstream demand, and the demand from alumina has weakened due to reduced production. The inventory has increased for three consecutive weeks, reaching a new historical high year - on - year. The supply - demand driving force is downward without a reversal, but there is no space to chase short - positions before an obvious rebound [37]. - **Technical Analysis**: The hourly - level shows a downward structure. Today, it rebounded with reduced positions, and the downward structure remains unchanged. The short - term pressure above is at 2135. The strategy is to wait and see in the hourly cycle [37].

Report Summary 1. Industry Investment Rating - The report does not provide an overall investment rating for the industry. 2. Core View - The agricultural product sector shows mixed trends. Soybean meal and oils are on a downward trend, while live pigs are rebounding. Eggs are falling, sugar is rebounding from a low level, and cotton is fluctuating narrowly [1]. 3. Summary by Variety Soybean Meal - The soybean meal main contract 2605 continues to decline due to the weak performance of US soybeans and high domestic inventories. From January to November 2025, China's soybean imports reached 1.0379 billion tons, a year - on - year increase of 6.9%, and the inventory has rebounded to around 1.2 million tons. The technical chart shows a downward trend, and the strategy is to lightly short at resistance levels [1][2]. Oils - The three major oil main contracts 2605 are all falling. The market expects the end - of - November palm oil inventory in Malaysia to surge 7.78% month - on - month to a 6.5 - year high, and crude oil has tumbled. Domestically, the supply of soybean oil and rapeseed oil is sufficient. The palm oil main contract 2605 has entered a downward trend technically, and short - term operations are recommended before the release of the MPOB report [1][3]. Live Pigs - The live pig main contract 2603 continues to rebound. A new cold wave is expected to increase transportation costs and boost consumption such as southern curing and northern sausage - making. The technical chart shows an upward trend, and the strategy is to hold a light long position with a support level of 11335 [1][5]. Eggs - The egg main contracts 2601 and 2602 are both falling, with the 2602 contract having a larger decline. The high egg - laying hen inventory and the uncertain de - capacity are pressuring the prices. The technical chart shows a downward trend, and the strategy is to lightly short, with the resistance level of the 2601 contract at 3134 [7]. Sugar - The Zhengzhou sugar main contract 2601 rebounds from a low level. Although the year - end consumption demand may improve, the seasonal supply pressure is still large. The cost of production provides some support, and the strategy is to hold short positions [9]. Cotton - The cotton main contract 2601 fluctuates narrowly. The high sales rate in Xinjiang supports the price, but the commercial inventory is increasing. As of December 5, the cotton commercial total inventory was 4.465 million tons, a month - on - month increase of 6.83%. The strategy is to close long positions and conduct short - term trading [11].

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. Core Viewpoints - Crude oil overnight retraced its previous gains without any news, remaining in a sideways pattern awaiting geopolitical drivers. The geopolitical situation suggests a pessimistic outlook for a cease - fire in the Russia - Ukraine conflict, and there is an upward revision risk if the negotiation fails again. There is also an expectation of an escalation of risks in the Caribbean region, which could lead to a pulse - like upward movement [1][3]. - For the chemical sector, the aromatics (PX, PTA, EB) that were previously bullish have seen a weakening of the upward drive as overseas crack spreads have declined significantly. However, PX still has a relatively healthy fundamental situation, and styrene has seen short - term supply - demand improvement due to inventory reduction [1]. Summary by Directory Crude Oil - **Logic**: The impact of supply - demand and macro - drivers on the crude oil market is still weak, with a mid - term oversupply expectation. However, there was trading based on supply - demand changes after last week's unexpected inventory build in EIA data. Macro factors are currently bullish, and geopolitical factors may be the main driver in December. Short - term outlook is bullish but difficult to trade, and there will be mid - term short - selling opportunities after a pulse - like upward movement [2][3]. - **Technical Analysis**: The daily chart shows a mid - term downward structure, and the hourly chart shows a short - term sideways pattern. The strategy is to wait and observe on the hourly cycle [3]. Styrene - **Logic**: Short - term supply has decreased due to more maintenance after a significant profit decline, leading to inventory reduction and supply - demand improvement. However, further upward movement requires support from crude oil prices. Mid - term inventory is at a five - year high, and there is a high risk of inventory over - build if demand remains weak after the New Year [6]. - **Technical Analysis**: The hourly chart shows a short - term upward structure. The strategy is to wait for a pull - back without breaking the support at 6520 and then look for a long - entry opportunity [6]. Rubber - **Logic**: There is no major contradiction in the short term. Tire demand has limited growth potential, and the supply side is in the peak tapping season in Southeast Asia, with normal inventory build - up in Qingdao. The market should be viewed with a sideways outlook [9]. - **Technical Analysis**: The daily chart shows a mid - term downward structure, and the hourly chart shows a short - term sideways pattern. The strategy is to wait and observe on the hourly cycle [9]. Synthetic Rubber - **Logic**: The core factor is the price of raw material butadiene. Short - term supply - demand has improved as downstream replenished inventory due to low butadiene prices, but there is still mid - term inventory pressure [11]. - **Technical Analysis**: The daily chart shows a mid - term downward structure, and the hourly chart shows a short - term sideways pattern. The strategy is to wait and observe on the hourly cycle [11]. PX - **Logic**: The upward drive has weakened as the off - season US aromatics blending oil logic has ended. However, PX supply - demand remains strong, with high operating rates, no new plant commissioning in the short term, and rising downstream PTA operating rates. Attention should be paid to the impact of crude oil prices [14]. - **Technical Analysis**: The hourly chart shows a short - term upward structure. The strategy is to hold long positions with a stop - loss at 6700 and look for opportunities to add positions after the pull - back ends [14]. PTA - **Logic**: The upward drive has weakened as the off - season US aromatics blending oil logic has ended. PTA is still reducing inventory, and short - term supply - demand pressure is low. Attention should be paid to the impact of crude oil prices [18]. - **Technical Analysis**: The hourly chart shows a short - term upward structure. The strategy is to hold long positions with a stop - loss at 4620 (01 contract) and look for a second long - entry opportunity after the pull - back ends [18]. PP - **Logic**: Supply is high and demand is weak, with no sign of a reversal. However, short - term geopolitical risks in crude oil need to be watched [20]. - **Technical Analysis**: The hourly chart shows a short - term downward structure. The strategy is to wait and observe on the hourly cycle [20]. Methanol - **Logic**: Domestic methanol operating rates remain high, and downstream demand is weak. Although port inventory has decreased, the rate of decrease has slowed, and inventory is still at a high level. The previous upward drive has ended, and the supply - demand logic is still weak [22][24]. - **Technical Analysis**: The daily chart shows a mid - term downward structure and a short - term sideways pattern. The strategy is to wait and observe on the hourly cycle [24]. PVC - **Logic**: There are few future maintenance plans, and high operating rates are maintained. However, there is an increasing expectation of production cuts due to falling profits. Demand from the downstream real estate sector is weak, and social and factory inventories are high. The valuation is low, and there is no value in short - selling [27]. - **Technical Analysis**: The daily chart shows a mid - term downward structure, and the hourly chart shows a short - term downward structure. The strategy is to wait and observe on the hourly cycle [27]. Ethylene Glycol - **Logic**: Domestic operating rates are high due to the resumption of previously shut - down plants and new capacity additions. Downstream polyester demand is stable, and the inventory build - up pattern continues. However, short - term geopolitical risks in crude oil need to be watched [29]. - **Technical Analysis**: The daily chart shows a mid - term downward structure, and the hourly chart shows a short - term downward structure. The strategy is to wait and observe on the hourly cycle, paying attention to the short - term resistance at 3720 [29]. Plastic - **Logic**: Supply is high and demand is weak, with no sign of a reversal. However, short - term geopolitical risks in crude oil need to be watched [32]. - **Technical Analysis**: The daily chart shows a mid - term downward structure, and the hourly chart shows a short - term downward structure. The strategy is to wait and observe on the hourly cycle, paying attention to the short - term resistance at 6670 [32]. Soda Ash - **Logic**: The high - supply and high - inventory situation continues, and downstream glass production lines have cut production, suppressing demand. Although the downward fundamental drive remains, the cost - effectiveness of holding short positions is decreasing [35]. - **Technical Analysis**: The hourly chart shows a downward structure. The strategy is to hold the remaining short positions cautiously, with a stop - profit at 1155 [35]. Caustic Soda - **Logic**: Supply operating rates remain high, and traditional downstream demand is in the off - season. Alumina demand has weakened due to reduced production, and inventory has reached a new high. The supply - demand drive is downward, but there is no space for short - selling before a significant rebound [37]. - **Technical Analysis**: The hourly chart shows a downward structure. The strategy is to wait and observe on the hourly cycle, paying attention to the short - term resistance at 2135 [37].

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating There is no information about the industry investment rating in the report. 2. Report Core View The report analyzes the market trends, core logics, technical aspects, and provides strategy suggestions for three commodities: lithium carbonate, polysilicon, and industrial silicon futures. It also points out the influencing factors and potential driving forces for each commodity [1][3][9]. 3. Key Points by Commodity Lithium Carbonate - **Market Trend**: The lithium carbonate futures showed a strong performance today. The main 2605 contract rose 2.91% from the previous trading day's closing price, reaching 94,840 yuan/ton [1]. - **Core Logic**: Affected by news, the price increased significantly. Nigeria's 19 northern states plan to suspend mining activities for six months. China imported about 400,000 tons of lithium ore from Nigeria in the first half of this year, corresponding to about 50,000 tons of equity lithium carbonate. Fundamentally, lithium carbonate continued the de - stocking pattern, and the apparent demand increased slightly month - on - month [1]. - **Technical Analysis**: The overall open interest of lithium carbonate futures increased slightly today, still controlled by bulls, with a certain reduction of positions at the end of the session. There was an entry opportunity at 10:05 with the "Three - line Resonance Method" and increased trading volume, offering a 1:2 profit - loss ratio. The 5 - minute cycle of the main 2605 contract is a green - line, red - band, green - ladder pattern, and the overnight 2 - hour cycle is still a weak green ladder line, with the long - short dividing water level at 96,940 yuan/ton [1]. - **Strategy Suggestion**: In the context of "strong reality, strong expectation", the operation should be mainly to go long on dips. Intraday operations can refer to the 8:30 morning live broadcast and the Band Winner indicator [1]. Polysilicon - **Market Trend**: The polysilicon futures showed a weak performance today. The 2605 contract fell 0.16% from the previous trading day's closing price, reaching 53,065 yuan/ton [3]. - **Core Logic**: On December 5, the Guangzhou Futures Exchange announced an adjustment to polysilicon futures registered brands, adding "Jingnuo" and "Orient Hope" as registered brands. However, today's polysilicon market decline was less than expected, and it showed a relatively strong trend after a gap - down opening. Fundamentally, there is some seasonal production reduction on the supply side, but the inventory accumulation pattern continues. The downstream industry chain demand is weak, production schedules have declined, and the prices of downstream silicon wafers and battery cells have also decreased to some extent [3][6]. - **Technical Analysis**: The overall open interest of polysilicon futures decreased slightly today, with a gradual shift of positions. The 05 contract is still controlled by bulls. The 5 - minute cycle of the polysilicon 2605 contract is a red - line, red - band, red - ladder pattern, and the overnight 2 - hour cycle is still a weak green ladder line, with the long - short dividing water level at 55,045 yuan/ton [6]. - **Strategy Suggestion**: The contradiction between the strong futures market with low warehouse receipts and the weak spot market with oversupply remains unchanged. Polysilicon may maintain a high - level oscillation in the short term. Intraday operations can refer to the 8:30 morning live broadcast and the Band Winner indicator [6]. Industrial Silicon - **Market Trend**: The industrial silicon futures showed a weak performance today, following the polysilicon trend. The main 2601 contract fell 1.48% from the previous trading day's closing price, reaching 8,675 yuan/ton [9]. - **Core Logic**: It opened with a gap down following the polysilicon trend, mainly affected by market sentiment. The supply - demand weakness pattern of industrial silicon continues, and the industry inventory is at a three - year high, with three consecutive weeks of inventory accumulation. Specifically, the production in the southwest region during the dry season has continuously decreased to the lowest level this year, while the northern large - scale manufacturers in the eastern region have sporadically increased production and plan to gradually increase to full - load operation. The downstream weakness has not changed significantly, with all facing production reduction expectations and limited restocking [9]. - **Technical Analysis**: The overall open interest of industrial silicon futures increased significantly today, still controlled by bears. The 5 - minute cycle of the main 2601 contract has changed to a red - line, red - band, red - ladder pattern, and the overnight 2 - hour cycle is still a weak green ladder line, with the long - short dividing water level at 9,145 yuan/ton [9]. - **Strategy Suggestion**: It is still regarded as weak, mainly affected by policies and news. Pay attention to short - term emotional fluctuations. Intraday operations can refer to the 8:30 morning live broadcast and the Band Winner indicator [9].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. 2. Core Viewpoints - The agricultural product sector shows a mixed trend, with hog prices rising sharply and soybean meal prices falling significantly. The hog market is in a situation of strong supply and demand, and the soybean meal market is under pressure from abundant imports and high inventory [1]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs 3.1. Agricultural Product Sector Overview - Hog prices have risen sharply as the year - end approaches, with the hog market entering a period of strong supply and demand. The demand for sausage - making in the north and bacon - curing in the south is increasing, and hog futures prices have rebounded strongly from low levels and may continue to strengthen. Soybean meal prices have fallen significantly due to abundant imported soybeans, high crushing volumes, and a rebound in soybean meal inventory to over one million tons, and its futures prices have entered a downward trend [1]. 3.2. Variety Strategy Tracking 3.2.1. Hogs - Focus: The main contract 2603 of hogs has risen sharply, boosted by improved demand. Supply is abundant in December as large - scale pig enterprises increase their出栏. Demand has increased with the arrival of winter, and the开工 rate of slaughtering enterprises has rebounded. The futures price has broken through the 20 - day moving average and entered an upward trend. The strategy is to close short positions and hold light long positions [2]. 3.2.2. Soybean Meal - Focus: The main contract 2605 of soybean meal has fallen significantly due to abundant imported soybeans and high inventory pressure. In November, China imported 8.107 million tons of soybeans, a 13.4% year - on - year increase. The total soybean imports in the first 11 months reached 103.79 million tons, a 6.9% year - on - year increase. The inventory has rebounded to about 1.2 million tons. The futures price has broken through the moving average system and entered a downward trend. The strategy is to continue to look for resistance levels to short lightly [3]. 3.2.3. Palm Oil - Focus: The main contract 2605 of Dalian palm oil has oscillated and declined. The market is cautious before the release of the MPOB report, and some long positions have been liquidated. The futures price has fallen below the 20 - day moving average. The strategy is to close long positions, conduct short - term trading, and wait for important data to enter trend positions [5]. 3.2.4. Red Dates - Focus: The main contract 2605 of red dates has first risen and then declined, with limited rebound. The peak consumption season is in conflict with high supply and inventory, leading to large price fluctuations. The acquisition progress in the main production areas of Xinjiang is about 90%, and the price of new dates has stabilized. However, the concentrated listing of new dates and high inventory of old dates limit the rebound space. The strategy is short - term trading [8]. 3.2.5. Apples - Focus: The main contract 2605 of apples has oscillated and declined from a high position. The inventory in production areas is relatively low, but the market trading speed is slow, and the sales volume is average. Citrus competing fruits also impact apple consumption. The futures price has fallen below the 10 - day moving average. The strategy is to close long positions and pay attention to the support of the 20 - day moving average [9][11]. 3.2.6. Eggs - Focus: The main contract 2601 of eggs has rebounded from a low position as the market anticipates improved demand at the end of the year. The egg - laying hen inventory is still high, but the market expects better demand. The latest data shows a decline in the number of old hens sold. The futures price has rebounded and oscillated, standing above the 5 - day moving average. The strategy is to close short positions and conduct short - term trading [12]. 3.2.7. Sugar - Focus: The main contract 2601 of Zhengzhou sugar has rebounded from a low position due to technical correction and short - covering. However, the supply pressure of new sugar is still large as the sugar - cane crushing progress in Guangxi and Yunnan continues, with 50 sugar mills in operation. The futures price is still below the moving averages, and the downward trend has not been reversed. The strategy is to hold short positions [14]. 3.2.8. Cotton - Focus: The main contract 2601 of cotton has oscillated and closed up, with high - level operation. The sales rate of Xinjiang cotton is high, and the demand has significantly increased. The textile enterprises in Xinjiang have a high operating rate, and the orders are sufficient. The transportation cost of cotton has increased. The market confidence of the textile industry has been boosted. The futures price has recovered the 10 - day moving average, and the strategy is to hold long positions [17]. 3.2.9. Peanuts - Focus: The main contract 2603 of peanuts has fallen significantly, with a weakening trend. The supply in various production areas is limited, and the demand is also weak. Food factories have only rigid demand, and the trading activity in the domestic market is low. Oil mills have a low operating rate, strictly control quality, and continue to lower purchase prices. The futures price has fallen below the 10 - day moving average, and the strategy is to short lightly [18][20].

Report Summary 1. Industry Investment Rating No specific investment rating for the industry is provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints - Crude oil is expected to remain volatile in the short term, with geopolitical factors being the main driver in December. There is a short - term bullish outlook, but trading is difficult due to geopolitical uncertainties. A mid - term shorting opportunity is expected after a pulse - like upward movement [2][3]. - Among chemical products, PX and PTA can maintain a bullish view for now, while the bullish view on methanol is removed. Other products such as styrene, rubber, synthetic rubber, etc., each have their own supply - demand and technical characteristics, with corresponding trading suggestions [1][6][9]. 3. Summary by Commodity Crude Oil - **Logic**: Supply - demand and macro - factors have a weak impact on the market. The mid - term expectation of supply surplus remains, but there is short - term trading of supply - demand changes. Geopolitical factors are increasing, and there is a pessimistic view on the cease - fire in the Russia - Ukraine conflict. There may be a pulse - like upward movement due to the risk escalation in the Caribbean [2][3]. - **Technical Analysis**: A mid - term downward structure on the daily chart and a short - term volatile structure on the hourly chart. The strategy is to wait and see on the hourly cycle [3]. Styrene - **Logic**: Short - term supply has decreased due to increased maintenance, and two consecutive weeks of inventory reduction have improved short - term supply - demand. However, mid - term inventory pressure is high, and there may be a risk of inventory overstocking [6]. - **Technical Analysis**: A short - term upward structure on the hourly chart. The strategy is to wait for an opportunity to try long after a pull - back without breaking the support [6]. Rubber - **Logic**: There are no major short - term contradictions. Tire demand has limited growth, and the supply side is in the peak tapping season. There is no clear upward or downward driving force, so it is treated with a volatile view [9]. - **Technical Analysis**: A mid - term downward structure on the daily chart and a short - term volatile structure on the hourly chart. The strategy is to wait and see on the hourly cycle [9]. Synthetic Rubber - **Logic**: The core of synthetic rubber lies in the supply - demand of raw material butadiene. Short - term supply - demand has improved, but there is still mid - term inventory pressure [14]. - **Technical Analysis**: A mid - term downward structure on the daily chart and a short - term volatile structure on the hourly chart. The strategy is to wait and see on the hourly cycle [14]. PX - **Logic**: The upward driving force has weakened, but the supply - demand situation is still relatively strong in the chemical industry, and attention should be paid to the cost - end impact of crude oil [17]. - **Technical Analysis**: A short - term upward structure on the hourly chart. The strategy is to hold long positions on the hourly level, with a stop - loss reference of 6700 [17]. PTA - **Logic**: The upward driving force has weakened, but short - term supply - demand pressure is not significant. Attention should be paid to cost - end driving [20]. - **Technical Analysis**: A short - term upward structure on the hourly chart. The strategy is to hold long positions on the hourly level, with a stop - loss reference of 4620 (01 contract) [20]. PP - **Logic**: Supply is at a high level and demand is weak, and the supply - demand situation is still weak. Attention should be paid to short - term geopolitical risks in crude oil [22]. - **Technical Analysis**: A short - term volatile structure on the hourly chart. The strategy is to wait and see on the hourly cycle [22]. Methanol - **Logic**: Domestic methanol production is at a high level, and demand is weak. Although the port inventory has decreased, the rate of decrease has slowed down, and there is high - level inventory pressure. The previous upward driving force has ended, and the short - term bullish view is removed [23]. - **Technical Analysis**: A mid - term downward and short - term volatile structure. The strategy is to wait and see on the hourly cycle [23]. PVC - **Logic**: Future maintenance plans are limited, and production is at a high level. There are expectations of production reduction due to profit decline, but demand is weak, and inventory is high. There is no upward driving force, and short - selling has limited value [26]. - **Technical Analysis**: A mid - term downward structure on the daily chart and a short - term volatile structure on the hourly chart. The strategy is to wait and see on the hourly cycle [26]. Ethylene Glycol - **Logic**: Domestic production is at a high level, and new production capacity has increased supply pressure. Demand from downstream polyester is stable, and the inventory accumulation pattern continues. Attention should be paid to short - term geopolitical risks in crude oil [29]. - **Technical Analysis**: A mid - term and short - term downward structure on the hourly chart. The strategy is to wait and see on the hourly cycle [29]. Plastic - **Logic**: Supply is at a high level and demand is weak, and the supply - demand situation is still weak. Attention should be paid to short - term geopolitical risks in crude oil [30]. - **Technical Analysis**: A mid - term and short - term downward structure on the hourly chart. The strategy is to wait and see on the hourly cycle [30]. Soda Ash - **Logic**: High supply and high inventory continue, and the demand from downstream glass has decreased. Although the downward driving force remains, the cost - effectiveness of holding short positions has decreased [33]. - **Technical Analysis**: A downward structure on the hourly chart. The strategy is to hold the remaining short positions on the hourly cycle with a stop - profit reference of 1155 [33]. Caustic Soda - **Logic**: Supply is at a high level, and traditional downstream demand is in the off - season. Inventory has reached a new high, and the downward driving force remains, but there is limited space for short - selling [36]. - **Technical Analysis**: A downward structure on the hourly chart. The strategy is to wait and see on the hourly cycle [36].

碳酸锂、多晶硅、工业硅日报 （一）碳酸锂 1、江西锂矿项目的复产和锂精矿进口量会是影响节奏和波动率 的重要因素。 2、留意近低远高结构什么时候转变成近高远低结构。之前两波 上涨行情，期限结构转为近高远低结构时，很快就是阶段顶部。 碳酸锂 2605 合约 2 小时级别周期 （二）多晶硅 市场走势：今日多晶硅期货震荡偏弱运行，主力 2601 合约较上 一交易日收盘价下跌 0.90%，报 56915 元/吨。 核心逻辑：今日碳酸锂周度数据公布，延续去库格局，去库幅度 基本稳定。短期来看，碳酸锂有所转弱，主因 12 月动力需求呈现降 温态势，对消费端支撑力度有所减弱。同时，国内锂矿复产预期持续 对盘面带来扰动，拖累碳酸锂走势。不过总体来讲，在对碳酸锂长期 需求看好的预期下，预计锂价易涨难跌。 技术面分析：今日碳酸锂期货整体持仓量大幅下降。日内 10： 35 有"三线共振法"叠加成交量放量下行介入机会，给到 1：2 盈亏 比。当前碳酸锂主力 2605 合约 5 分钟级别周期为绿线红带红阶梯。 隔夜 2 小时级别周期转为绿色阶梯线偏弱，多空分水位 97320 元/吨。 策略建议：在"强现实，强预期"的大背景下，操作上仍以 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The overall agricultural products sector showed mixed trends. The oil and fat sector declined, with palm oil adjusting from its high due to expected high inventories at the end of November in Malaysia. Sugar prices dropped significantly because of the seasonal supply pressure from the peak of sugar cane crushing in southern China. Apple prices adjusted at a high level, but the decline was limited by low inventories and might remain strong in the future. Other products like eggs, cotton, etc., also had their own market characteristics and trends [1]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs 3.1 Palm Oil - The Dalian palm oil main contract 2601 adjusted downward from its high. The market expected the Malaysian palm oil inventory to increase to a 6 - year - and - a - half high in November due to a large month - on - month decline in exports. However, the decline might be limited as the production reduction season approached. Technically, the MACD showed a golden cross with a continuing red column, and the uptrend was not reversed. It was recommended to hold long positions [2]. 3.2 Apple - The apple main contract 2605 adjusted at a high level but the decline was limited. As of December 3, the national apple cold - storage inventory was 763.51 million tons, a month - on - month decrease of 3.24 million tons. With the approaching of holidays, apple consumption might enter a peak season, but it was also affected by competing citrus fruits. Technically, the price remained above the 10 - day moving average, and long positions were recommended to be held [3]. 3.3 Eggs - Egg contracts maintained the characteristic of near - term weakness and long - term strength. The near - month contract 2601 first declined and then rebounded, but the weakness was not reversed due to high production capacity. The egg - laying hen inventory was high, demand started slowly, and inventory days increased. The main contract 2601 was still below the moving averages, and short positions were recommended to be held [6]. 3.4 Sugar - The Zhengzhou sugar main contract 2601 dropped significantly due to the supply pressure of new sugar. The sugar - cane crushing in Guangxi and Yunnan was advancing, and new sugar was constantly coming onto the market, causing the spot price to fall. Technically, the price broke below the moving average system, and it was recommended to go short on rallies [7][9]. 3.5 Cotton - The cotton main contract 2601 oscillated and closed up, showing a strong trend. As of November 27, the national cotton sales rate was 33.2%, a year - on - year increase of 18.9 percentage points, indicating strong demand. Xinjiang textile enterprises had a high operating rate and sufficient orders. The futures price was at a high level, and it was recommended to go long on dips with a support level of 13,680 [10]. 3.6 Soybean Meal - The soybean meal main contract 2601 first declined and then rebounded, with the decline limited. Domestic imported soybeans were abundant, and the inventory of soybean meal had recovered to about 1.2 million tons. However, the high cost of imported soybeans and supply uncertainties in the first quarter supported the price. The main contract 2605 oscillated and declined, but the decline was limited, and short - term trading was recommended [12]. 3.7 Peanuts - The peanut main contract 2603 rebounded slightly after being supported at the 10 - day moving average. The peanuts in the Northeast were of high quality but with light trading volume. The demand side was cautious in purchasing, and the trading atmosphere was light. It was recommended to hold a small long position with a stop - loss set at the 10 - day moving average [15]. 3.8 Pigs - The pig main contract 2603 continued to trade sideways at a low level, showing a weak trend. The pig inventory was high, and the planned slaughter volume of large - scale pig enterprises in December increased month - on - month. The demand side was weak due to the late start of family curing and sufficient supply of substitute products. Short - term short - side trading was recommended [16][18]. 3.9 Red Dates - The red date main contract 2601 oscillated weakly at a low level. The inventory of red dates in Xinjiang was much higher than the same period last year, and the market supply pressure was large. With the listing of substitute products, the consumption of red dates was affected. Short - term trading was recommended [19].

Report Investment Rating No investment rating for the industry is provided in the report. Core Viewpoints - Crude oil's short - term core factor is geopolitics, with a pessimistic view on the cease - fire in the Russia - Ukraine conflict and an expectation of risk escalation in the Caribbean region. Aromatics (PX, PTA, BZ, EB) and methanol are short - term long - core varieties in the chemical industry [2][4]. - The supply - demand and macro drivers of crude oil are weak in the short term, but geopolitical factors may be the main driver in December. There are short - term long opportunities and mid - term short opportunities after a pulse - type upward movement [4]. Summary by Category Crude Oil - Logic: Supply - demand and macro drivers are weak. Short - term US high - frequency data is strong, and before a large - scale inventory build - up, the oversupply trading is difficult to restart. Geopolitical factors are the main driver in December, with a short - term long view and mid - term short opportunities after a pulse - type upward movement [3][4]. - Technical Analysis: The daily - level shows a mid - term downward structure, and the hourly - level is in short - term oscillation. The strategy is to wait and see in the hourly cycle [4]. Styrene - Logic: There is an unexpected inventory build - up during the seasonal de - stocking period, and there are still concerns about over - inventory. There are short - term fundamental contradictions and large mid - term differences. It is necessary to pay attention to the continuation of the gasoline - blending logic and future imports. Be cautious about the pulse - type upward movement of crude oil due to potential geopolitical escalation [7]. - Technical Analysis: The hourly - level is in short - term oscillation, and the structure is unclear. The strategy is to wait and see in the hourly and 15 - minute cycles after the stop - loss of long positions [8][9]. Rubber - Logic: There are no short - term contradictions. Tire demand has no significant increase, and the supply side is in the peak tapping season in Southeast Asia. The inventory in Qingdao is seasonally increasing. The market should be treated with an oscillation view [10]. - Technical Analysis: The daily - level shows a mid - term downward structure, and the hourly - level is in short - term oscillation. The strategy is to wait and see in the hourly cycle [10]. Synthetic Rubber - Logic: It is traded around butadiene. The butadiene inventory has reached a five - year high in the past two weeks, and the price is under pressure. Although the fundamental driver is downward, the low valuation lacks short - selling space. Be cautious about the pulse - type upward movement of crude oil due to potential geopolitical escalation [14]. - Technical Analysis: The daily - level shows a mid - term downward structure, and the hourly - level is in short - term oscillation. The strategy is to wait and see in the hourly cycle [14]. PX - Logic: The supply - demand is neutral to positive, but the current fundamentals cannot support an upward drive. The main trading logic is the expected market. Since November, the US aromatic gasoline - blending logic has led to a valuation repair. After the weakening of the gasoline - blending expectation last week, the cost - side crude oil and strong fundamentals in the chemical industry are likely to attract long - position funds. The long - position view is maintained [18]. - Technical Analysis: The hourly - level shows a short - term upward structure. The strategy is to hold long positions in the hourly level, with a stop - loss reference of 6700 [18]. PTA - Logic: The polyester has little pressure, but the current fundamentals cannot support an upward drive. The main trading logic is the expected market. Since November, the US aromatic gasoline - blending logic has led to a valuation repair. After the weakening of the gasoline - blending expectation last week, the cost - side crude oil and strong fundamentals in the chemical industry are likely to attract long - position funds. The long - position view is maintained [20]. - Technical Analysis: The hourly - level shows a short - term upward structure. The strategy is to hold long positions in the hourly level, with a stop - loss reference of 4620 [20]. PP - Logic: It still faces the pressure of olefin capacity to be put into production, with high supply pressure and weak downstream demand. The supply - demand drive is negative, and attention should be paid to the cost - side crude oil drive [23]. - Technical Analysis: The hourly - level is in short - term oscillation. The strategy is to wait and see in the hourly cycle [23]. Methanol - Logic: The over - expected maintenance in Iran has led to the shutdown of multiple methanol plants. With the temperature dropping in December, a full - scale shutdown is likely. After the market over - traded the expectation of insufficient gas restrictions, the market has room for upward correction. The port de - stocking rate is accelerating. The withdrawal of crowded short positions on the previous trading board brings a large upward space [24]. - Technical Analysis: The daily - level shows a mid - term downward structure and short - term oscillation. After testing the support without breaking it, the upward structure continues. The strategy is to hold long positions in the hourly cycle, with a stop - profit reference of 2100 [25][27]. PVC - Logic: High supply and high inventory continue. With the collapse of domestic real - estate demand, there is no hope for demand. The social inventory is still increasing, and there is no upward drive [28]. - Technical Analysis: The daily - level shows a mid - term downward structure, and the hourly - level is in short - term oscillation. The technical structure is unclear. The strategy is to wait and see in the hourly cycle [28]. Ethylene Glycol - Logic: Multiple MEG plants in Iran are under maintenance, but the domestic supply remains high with the resumption of maintenance and new capacity addition. Inventory build - up continues. Be vigilant about short - term geopolitical risks in crude oil [32]. - Technical Analysis: The daily - level shows a mid - term downward structure, and the hourly - level is in a downward structure. The upper short - term pressure is at 3920. The strategy is to wait and see in the single - side hourly cycle [32]. Plastic - Logic: The downstream demand recovers slowly, and the supply pressure from the upstream olefin capacity addition remains. The supply - demand is still weak. Be vigilant about short - term geopolitical risks in crude oil [33]. - Technical Analysis: The daily - level shows a mid - term downward structure, and the hourly - level is in a downward structure. The upper short - term pressure is at 6825. The strategy is to wait and see in the hourly cycle [33]. Soda Ash - Logic: The high - supply and high - inventory pattern continues, and the production cut in the downstream glass production line suppresses the demand for soda ash. Although the fundamental downward drive remains, the cost - performance of holding short positions unilaterally decreases [36]. - Technical Analysis: The hourly - level is in a downward structure. After a reduction in positions and a decline, the downward structure remains unchanged. The upper short - term pressure is at 1195. The remaining short positions in the hourly cycle should be held cautiously with a stop - profit at 1195 [36]. Caustic Soda - Logic: New capacity is put into production, and most plants have resumed operation after maintenance, resulting in high supply pressure. The alumina industry's losses are expanding, and the demand for caustic soda remains weak. There is no upward drive in supply - demand [39]. - Technical Analysis: The hourly - level is in a downward structure. After an increase in positions and a decline, the downward structure remains unchanged. The upper short - term pressure is at 2220. The strategy is to wait and see in the hourly cycle [39].

Report Industry Investment Rating The report does not provide an overall industry investment rating. Core Viewpoints - Crude oil's geopolitical situation may lead to price increases. A pessimistic view on the cease - fire between Russia and Ukraine, and an expected risk escalation in the Caribbean region could drive prices up. Chemicals, especially aromatics and methanol, are favored for long - positions. Other products have different trading outlooks based on their fundamentals and technical analysis [1][3]. Summary by Directory (1) Crude Oil - **Logic**: Supply - demand and macro drivers are weak in the short - term. Geopolitical factors are likely to be the main driver in December. A short - term bullish view but difficult to trade, and a mid - term shorting opportunity after a pulse - like upward movement is expected [3]. - **Technical Analysis**: Daily - level shows a mid - term downward structure, and hourly - level is short - term oscillating. An intraday oscillation, with a break below 450 indicating a shift from an uptrend to oscillation. A strategy of hourly - cycle observation is recommended [3]. (2) Styrene (EB) - **Logic**: Seasonal de - stocking is unexpectedly replaced by inventory accumulation, with a risk of over - stocking. There are short - term fundamental contradictions, and mid - term differences are significant. Attention should be paid to the continuation of the gasoline - blending logic and future imports. Be cautious of potential geopolitical - driven upward pulses in crude oil [6]. - **Technical Analysis**: Hourly - level shows short - term oscillation, with an unclear structure. The 15 - minute level shows an upward structure, with a signal of a callback end and a counter - package at the end of the session. A strategy of hourly - cycle observation and a trial long - position on the 15 - minute level with a stop - loss at 6550 is recommended [8]. (3) Rubber - **Logic**: There are no short - term contradictions. Tire demand has limited growth potential, and supply - side factors show a normal seasonal inventory accumulation in Qingdao during the Southeast Asian rubber - tapping season. An oscillating view is taken [9]. - **Technical Analysis**: Daily - level shows a mid - term downward structure, and hourly - level shows short - term oscillation. An intraday decline on reduced positions, with an unclear hourly - level structure. A strategy of hourly - cycle observation is recommended [10][12]. (4) Synthetic Rubber - **Logic**: It is mainly traded based on butadiene. Butadiene inventory has reached a 5 - year high in recent weeks, putting pressure on prices. Although the fundamental driver is downward, the low valuation limits short - selling space. Be cautious of potential geopolitical - driven upward pulses in crude oil. An oscillating and observing approach is recommended [13]. - **Technical Analysis**: Daily - level shows a mid - term downward structure, and hourly - level shows short - term oscillation. An intraday decline on reduced positions, maintaining an oscillating structure. A strategy of hourly - cycle observation is recommended [15]. (5) PX - **Logic**: Its supply - demand is moderately bullish, but the current fundamentals cannot support an upward drive. The main trading logic is based on expectations. Since November, the US aromatic gasoline - blending logic has led to a valuation repair. After the weakening of the gasoline - blending expectation last week, the cost of crude oil and relatively strong chemical fundamentals may attract more long - positions. A long - position view is maintained [17][19]. - **Technical Analysis**: Hourly - level shows a short - term upward structure, with an intraday oscillation but the upward structure remaining unchanged. The hourly - level support is at 6700. A strategy of holding long - positions on the hourly - level with a stop - loss at 6700 is recommended [19]. (6) PTA - **Logic**: Similar to PX, polyester has relatively low pressure, but the current fundamentals cannot support an upward drive. The main trading logic is based on expectations. Since November, the US aromatic gasoline - blending logic has led to a valuation repair. After the weakening of the gasoline - blending expectation last week, the cost of crude oil and relatively strong chemical fundamentals may attract more long - positions. A long - position view is maintained [20]. - **Technical Analysis**: Hourly - level shows a short - term upward structure, with an intraday oscillation but the upward structure remaining unchanged. The hourly - level support is at 4620. A strategy of holding long - positions on the hourly - level with a stop - loss at 4620 is recommended [20]. (7) PP - **Logic**: It still faces the pressure of upcoming olefin capacity expansion, with high supply and weak downstream demand. The supply - demand drive is bearish, and attention should be paid to the cost - side drive from crude oil [23]. - **Technical Analysis**: Hourly - level shows a short - term oscillating structure, with an intraday oscillation. A strategy of hourly - cycle observation is recommended [23]. (8) Methanol - **Logic**: Iranian methanol plant outages are more than expected. With the start of winter gas restrictions, a full - scale shutdown is likely in December. After the market over - reacted to the less - than - expected gas restrictions, the price has room for upward correction. High shipping volumes and high inventories have already been priced in, and the port de - stocking rate is accelerating. There is a large upward space as short - positions are unwound [24][26]. - **Technical Analysis**: Daily - level shows a mid - term downward structure, and hourly - level shows a short - term upward structure. An intraday oscillation, with the upward structure continuing. The short - term support is at 2100. A strategy of holding long - positions on the hourly - level with a stop - loss at 2100 is recommended [26]. (9) PVC - **Logic**: High supply and high inventory continue. With the collapse of domestic real - estate demand, there is no hope for demand improvement. Social inventory is at a high level and still increasing, with no upward drive [27]. - **Technical Analysis**: Daily - level shows a mid - term downward structure, and hourly - level shows a short - term oscillating structure. An intraday oscillation, with an unclear short - term technical structure. A strategy of hourly - cycle observation is recommended [27]. (10) Ethylene Glycol (EG) - **Logic**: Multiple MEG plants in Iran are under maintenance, but domestic supply remains high with the resumption of maintenance and new capacity expansion, leading to continued inventory accumulation. Be cautious of short - term geopolitical risks in crude oil [30]. - **Technical Analysis**: Daily - level shows a mid - term downward structure, and hourly - level shows a downward structure. An intraday decline on increased positions, with the short - term pressure at 3920. A strategy of hourly - cycle observation is recommended [30]. (11) Plastic - **Logic**: Downstream demand recovery is slow, and the supply pressure from upstream olefin capacity expansion remains. The supply - demand situation is weak and has not improved. Be cautious of short - term geopolitical risks in crude oil [32]. - **Technical Analysis**: Daily - level shows a mid - term downward structure, and hourly - level shows a downward structure. An intraday oscillation, with the short - term pressure at 6825. A strategy of hourly - cycle observation is recommended [32]. (12) Soda Ash - **Logic**: The high - supply and high - inventory situation continues, and the reduction of downstream glass production lines suppresses demand. Although the downward fundamental drive remains, the cost - effectiveness of holding short - positions is reduced [33]. - **Technical Analysis**: Hourly - level shows a downward structure. An intraday decline on reduced positions, with the downward structure unchanged. The short - term pressure is at 1195. A strategy of cautiously holding remaining short - positions on the hourly - level with a stop - profit at 1195 is recommended [33]. (13) Caustic Soda - **Logic**: New capacity has been put into operation, and most plants have resumed production after maintenance, resulting in high supply. The alumina industry's losses are expanding, and demand for caustic soda remains weak. There is no upward drive in the supply - demand situation [36]. - **Technical Analysis**: Hourly - level shows a downward structure. An intraday decline on increased positions, with the downward structure unchanged. The short - term pressure is at 2220. A strategy of hourly - cycle observation is recommended [36].