1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. 2. Core View of the Report The report analyzes the trends of various agricultural products, including significant price movements in rapeseed meal and cotton, and provides trading strategies for each product based on market fundamentals and technical analysis [1]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Agricultural Products Sector Overview - Rapeseed meal rebounded significantly due to unhelpful Sino - US economic and trade talks for soybean imports and the peak season of aquaculture demand [1]. - Cotton continued to decline as Xinjiang had a good harvest outlook and downstream demand was weak [1]. - Sugar reversed and tumbled because of concerns about increased sugar imports and a large number of long - position liquidations [1]. - Soybean oil fluctuated upwards, stimulated by the news of Chinese soybean oil exports to India [1]. 3.2 Variety Strategy Tracking 3.2.1 Rapeseed Meal and Soybean Meal - Both rapeseed meal and soybean meal rose. The Sino - US economic and trade talks and the aquaculture peak season boosted prices. Rapeseed meal inventory decreased to 66.54 million tons by the 30th week, and soybean meal downstream enterprises restocked at low prices [2]. - For rapeseed meal 2509 contract, take a light - long position, with support at 2661 and resistance at 2750. For soybean meal 2509 contract, close short positions and conduct short - term trading, with support at 2980 and resistance at 3036 [4]. 3.2.2 Cotton - Cotton 2509 contract continued to fall due to high - yield expectations and weak downstream demand. Xinjiang cotton growth was good, and the textile industry was in a slack season [6][7]. - Take a light - short position, with support at 13610 and resistance at 13770 [7]. 3.2.3 Soybean Oil - Soybean oil 2509 contract continued to rise after a sharp increase the previous day, as China sold discounted soybean oil to India, boosting market sentiment [8]. - Take a light - long position, with support at 8180 and resistance at 8300 [11]. 3.2.4 Palm Oil - Palm oil 2509 contract oscillated upwards. International crude oil price increases and a weakening Malaysian ringgit provided support, although Malaysian exports decreased. Domestic demand was stable [12]. - Take a light - long position, with support at 8900 and resistance at 9050 [12]. 3.2.5 Live Pigs - Live pigs 2509 contract oscillated downwards. There was an increase in supply from farmers and weak demand due to high temperatures and less consumption [14]. - Take a light - short position, with support at 13930 and resistance at 14220 [14]. 3.2.6 Corn - Corn 2509 contract oscillated and closed positive, showing a sideways trend. There were both supply - increasing and supply - decreasing factors in the market [16]. - Close short positions and conduct short - term trading, with support at 2300 and resistance at 2316 [16]. 3.2.7 Sugar - Sugar 2509 contract tumbled. Analysts expected an increase in Brazilian sugar production, and there were concerns about increased domestic sugar imports, leading to long - position liquidations [18]. - Close long positions and take a light - short position, with support at 5790 and resistance at 5840 [18]. 3.2.8 Eggs - Eggs 2509 contract oscillated downwards. There was high egg - laying hen inventory and slow capacity reduction on the supply side, and delayed seasonal demand on the demand side [21]. - Take a light - short position, with support at 3550 and resistance at 3597 [21]. 3.2.9 Red Dates - Red dates 2601 contract oscillated upwards. The estimated new - date production was 56 - 62 million tons, a 20 - 25% year - on - year decrease. The market was still debating the extent of the production cut [22]. - Take a light - long position, with support at 10650 and resistance at 10950 [24]. 3.2.10 Apples - Apples 2510 contract oscillated downwards. Storage merchants were eager to sell, and the quality of early - maturing apples was not good [25]. - Take a light - short - term short position, with support at 7857 and resistance at 7969 [25].

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. Core View of the Report The 7th Politburo meeting fell short of expectations, with no incremental policies and a possible intention to correct the "low - price" competition issue. After the meeting announcement, the commodity sentiment cooled down, and the energy - chemical sector diverged from crude oil again. Crude oil was short - term strong overnight due to Trump's threat of sanctions against Russia, but the fundamental supply pressure of OPEC+ is increasing, and the North American peak season is ending [1]. Summary by Related Catalogs 1. Crude Oil - **Logic**: Trump's remarks on pressuring Russia boosted oil prices short - term. However, OPEC+ is accelerating production increase, with supply pressure soaring in the third quarter. The North American peak season from June to August is ending, and the off - season is approaching. US refined oil has been accumulating inventory for two consecutive weeks, and crude oil will also shift from low inventory to inventory accumulation [2]. - **Technical Analysis**: The daily - level of crude oil shows a medium - term oscillatory/declining structure, and the hourly - level shows a short - term rising structure. After increasing positions and breaking through the upper edge of the oscillatory range, the short - term structure is considered rising. The short - term support below is at the 514 level. The strategy for the hourly cycle is to wait and see [2]. 2. Styrene (EB) - **Logic**: Supply and production are increasing, port inventory is continuously accumulating, and the total inventory is at a historical high compared to the same period. The actual demand has not improved, and new device production is approaching, so the fundamental driving force is bearish [5]. - **Technical Analysis**: The hourly - level of styrene shows a short - term declining structure. After rising and then falling today, the hourly form is bearish. There is an opportunity to try short - selling, with the stop - loss referring to today's high [5]. 3. Rubber - **Logic**: Although the previous precipitation in Hainan and Southeast Asia delayed the supply increase, with the new typhoon moving north, supply increase is still a certain path. The downstream tire inventory is at a historical high, and high - level production is difficult to sustain. The current rubber inventory is also high compared to the same period, so the fundamental driving force is bearish [10]. - **Technical Analysis**: The daily - level of rubber shows a medium - term decline, and the hourly - level shows a short - term declining structure. After rising and then falling today, the hourly - level decline is confirmed. The upper pressure is at the 15120 level. There is an opportunity to try short - selling in the 15 - minute cycle, with the stop - loss referring to the 15120 level [10]. 4. Synthetic Rubber (BR) - **Logic**: The supply - side device production is increasing, and the output of synthetic rubber has significantly rebounded. The downstream tire inventory is at a historical high, and high - level production is difficult to sustain. The recent arrival volume of butadiene at the port is low, providing some support, but the medium - term fundamental pressure of synthetic rubber is still large [14]. - **Technical Analysis**: The daily - level shows a medium - term oscillatory/declining structure, and the hourly - level shows a short - term oscillatory structure. After rising and then falling today, the hourly - level decline is confirmed. The upper pressure is at the 11950 level. There is an opportunity to try short - selling in the 15 - minute cycle, with the stop - loss referring to the 11950 level [14]. 5. PX - **Logic**: The polyester production is continuing to decline, the demand expectation is pessimistic, the supply production is rising, and the supply - demand situation is weak. The cost - end crude oil still has a large expected decline and mainly follows the crude oil fluctuations [18]. - **Technical Analysis**: The hourly - level of PX shows a short - term oscillatory structure. After rising and then falling today, there is an anti - package form in the afternoon hourly line. Although the volume is not large, it is still worth trying. There is an opportunity to try short - selling in the hourly cycle, with the stop - loss referring to today's high [18]. 6. PTA - **Logic**: The short - term supply - demand change is small, the inventory level is not high, and there is no major short - term fundamental contradiction. However, the cost - end crude oil still has a large expected decline and mainly follows the crude oil fluctuations [21]. - **Technical Analysis**: The hourly - level of PTA shows a short - term oscillatory structure. After rising and then falling today, there is an anti - package form in the afternoon hourly line. Although the volume is not large, it is still worth trying. There is an opportunity to try short - selling in the hourly cycle, with the stop - loss referring to today's high [21]. 7. PP - **Logic**: The downstream demand is sluggish, the supply - side production fluctuates slightly, but the previously overhauled devices will gradually restart and new production capacity will be put into operation, so the supply pressure is expected to continue. The inventory is continuously accumulating, and the fundamental driving force is bearish [25]. - **Technical Analysis**: The hourly - level of PP shows a short - term oscillatory structure. After rising and then falling today, there is an anti - package form in the afternoon hourly line. Although the volume is not large, it is still worth trying. There is an opportunity to try short - selling in the hourly cycle, with the stop - loss referring to today's high [25]. 8. Methanol - **Logic**: The domestic supply is at a high level compared to the same period, the downstream demand is weak, the short - term arrival volume is normal, the port inventory is continuously accumulating, and the overseas Iranian device production is stable. The short - term fundamentals are average. Attention should be paid to the cost - end and recent sentiment drivers [27]. - **Technical Analysis**: The daily - level of methanol shows a medium - term decline/oscillation, and the short - term shows a declining structure. After rising and then falling today, there is an anti - package form in the morning hourly line. Although the volume is not large, it is still worth trying. There is an opportunity to try short - selling in the hourly cycle, with the stop - loss referring to today's high [27]. 9. PVC - **Logic**: The supply is increasing, the demand in the off - season is continuously sluggish, the inventory is continuously accumulating, the fundamental driving force is still bearish, and the anti - involution sentiment that previously drove the upward movement has significantly cooled down today. It should be treated bearishly [30]. - **Technical Analysis**: The daily - level of PVC shows a medium - term rising structure, and the hourly - level shows a short - term oscillatory structure. After rising and then falling today, there is an anti - package form in the morning hourly line. Although the volume is not large, it is still worth trying. There is an opportunity to try short - selling in the hourly cycle, with the stop - loss referring to today's high [30]. 10. Ethylene Glycol (EG) - **Logic**: The production has slightly decreased, the demand is weak, the port inventory fluctuates at a low level, and there are both short - term low - inventory and medium - term inventory - accumulation expectations. The fundamental driving force is weak. The anti - involution sentiment that previously drove the upward movement has significantly cooled down today. It should be treated bearishly [33]. - **Technical Analysis**: The daily - level of EG shows a medium - term oscillatory/declining structure, and the hourly - level shows a short - term oscillatory structure. After rising and then falling today, there is an anti - package form in the afternoon hourly line. Although the volume is not large, it is still worth trying. There is an opportunity to try short - selling in the hourly cycle, with the stop - loss referring to today's high [33]. 11. Plastic - **Logic**: The overhauled devices will gradually restart in late July, the production is rising, the overall downstream demand is at a low level compared to the same period, the demand is weak, and the basis of 09 is weakening. Attention should be paid to the delivery logic. The anti - involution sentiment that previously drove the upward movement has significantly cooled down today. It should be treated bearishly [34]. - **Technical Analysis**: The daily - level of plastic shows a medium - term oscillatory/declining structure, and the hourly - level shows an oscillatory structure. After rising and then falling today, there is an anti - package form in the afternoon hourly line. Although the volume is not large, it is still worth trying. There is an opportunity to try short - selling in the hourly cycle, with the stop - loss referring to today's high [34].

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core View of the Report The agricultural product sector shows mixed trends. Cotton is in a downward trend due to good harvest expectations and weak downstream demand, while soybean oil has risen strongly, driven by the increase in international crude oil prices and export news. Apple prices have declined, and soybean meal remains in a downward trend. Other products such as palm oil, sugar, and jujube show different price movements based on various influencing factors [1]. Summary by Related Catalogs 1. Agricultural Product Sector Overview - Cotton has reversed and fallen into a downward trend because of good weather in Xinjiang's cotton - growing areas, increasing harvest expectations, and weak downstream demand. Soybean oil has risen strongly, boosted by the increase in international crude oil prices and export news. Apple has declined, and soybean meal is still in a downward trend due to abundant imported soybeans and high oil - mill operating rates [1]. 2. Variety Strategy Tracking (1) Cotton - Focus: The main 2509 contract of cotton has fallen sharply, accelerating the downward trend, pressured by the expected bumper harvest of new cotton and weak downstream demand. - Reason: In Xinjiang, the cotton growth situation is good, with an expected bumper harvest. The downstream textile industry is in the off - season, with insufficient orders, slow production and sales, and increased finished - product inventory, reducing the purchasing willingness for cotton. - Technical analysis: The 2509 contract has broken through key levels, with a MACD dead - cross and enlarged green bars. - Strategy: Sell on rallies. The support for the 2509 contract is 13760, and the resistance is 13980 [2]. (2) Soybean Oil - Focus: The main 2509 contract of soybean oil has risen strongly, reaching a new stage high, boosted by the increase in crude oil prices and export news. - Reason: The sharp rebound of international crude oil has boosted the oil market. There are news of soybean oil export orders in the domestic market, which may relieve inventory pressure. However, as of the 30th weekend, the domestic soybean oil inventory was 126.34 million tons, a month - on - month increase of 2.11% and a year - on - year increase of 0.53%. - Technical analysis: The 2509 contract has reached a new high this year, with all moving averages in a bullish arrangement and an enlarged MACD red bar. - Strategy: Go long with a light position. The support for the 2509 contract is 8116, and the resistance is 8280 [3]. (3) Soybean Meal - Focus: The 2509 contract of soybean meal has continued to fall, maintaining a downward trend. - Reason: Good weather in the US soybean - growing areas has led to expectations of a bumper harvest, causing a sharp decline in US soybeans and driving down the price of domestic soybean meal. The import of soybeans may improve due to the Sino - US economic and trade talks. As of the 30th weekend, the domestic soybean meal inventory was 107.5 million tons, a month - on - month increase of 5.34%. It is expected that the soybean crushing volume of major domestic oil mills in July will reach about 10 million tons. - Technical analysis: The 2509 contract has fallen below the 60 - day moving average, remaining in a downward trend. - Strategy: Go short with a light position. The support for the 2509 contract is 2960, and the resistance is 2995 [5]. (4) Palm Oil - Focus: The main 2509 contract of palm oil has first declined and then risen, showing a relatively strong performance, boosted by the increase in crude oil prices. - Reason: The sharp rebound of international crude oil has increased the attractiveness of palm oil as a biodiesel raw material. Indonesia's inventory is at a low level, and the monthly consumption of palm oil in the biodiesel sector exceeds one million tons. In Malaysia, from July 1 - 25, palm oil production increased by 5.52% month - on - month, while exports decreased by 9 - 15% month - on - month. - Technical analysis: The 2509 contract has a long lower - shadow阳线, with all moving averages in a bullish arrangement. - Strategy: Go long with a light position. The support for the 2509 contract is 8900, and the resistance is 9050 [7]. (5) Live Pigs - Focus: The 2509 contract of live pigs has had a small rebound but closed with a long negative line, showing a weak trend. - Reason: Recently, the slaughter sentiment of the breeding side has been strong, and the supply of live pigs in the market is abundant. The demand side is weak, affected by high - temperature weather, the summer vacation, and alternative consumption. - Technical analysis: The 2509 contract has closed with a negative line, and the price is below the 20 - day moving average. - Strategy: Close long positions and go short with a light position. The support for the 2509 contract is 14025, and the resistance is 14255 [9]. (6) Corn - Focus: The main 2509 contract of corn has oscillated and fallen, showing a weak trend. - Reason: The continuous auction of imported corn by CGS, the substitution advantage of wheat in some areas, the listing of spring corn, and the high - temperature and humid weather have increased the supply pressure on corn. - Technical analysis: The 2509 contract has oscillated and fallen, with the price below the moving - average system. - Strategy: Go short with a light position. The support for the 2509 contract is 2280, and the resistance is 2300 [11]. (7) Sugar - Focus: The main 2509 contract of Zhengzhou sugar has risen strongly, recovering most of the previous day's decline, boosted by the rise in the external market and the domestic peak - demand season. - Reason: The rebound of the external raw - sugar futures price has driven up Zhengzhou sugar. The domestic sugar sales rate is relatively fast, and it is currently in the summer consumption peak season, with low inventory further reduced. Although the import of sugar has increased, it is still at a relatively low level compared to the same period. - Technical analysis: The 2509 contract has risen strongly, with the price above the moving - average system and a continuous MACD red bar. - Strategy: Go long with a light position. The support for the 2509 contract is 5841, and the resistance is 5893 [15]. (8) Eggs - Focus: The main 2509 contract of eggs has first declined and then risen, closing with a positive line but remaining in a downward trend. - Reason: The supply side has a high inventory of laying hens, slow capacity reduction, and cautious purchasing by traders. The demand side has a delayed seasonal peak and general demand. - Technical analysis: The 2509 contract has opened low and closed high, but the price is still below the moving - average system. - Strategy: Go short with a light position. The support for the 2509 contract is 3550, and the resistance is 3600 [16][18]. (9) Jujubes - Focus: The main 2601 contract of jujubes has oscillated and risen, showing a relatively strong performance. - Reason: Xinjiang's jujube trees are in the physiological fruit - dropping stage. The estimated new - jujube output is 56 - 62 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of 20 - 25% and a 5 - 10% decrease compared to normal years. The consumption side is in the traditional off - season, but consumption is expected to improve over time. - Technical analysis: The 2601 contract has oscillated and risen, with the price above the moving - average system. - Strategy: Go long on dips. The support for the 2601 contract is 10605, and the resistance is 10900 [19]. (10) Apples - Focus: The main 2510 contract of apples has fallen sharply after a violent oscillation the previous day, showing a weakening trend. - Reason: The inventory of apples is limited, and storage merchants are increasing sales. The listing volume of early - maturing apples has increased, with problems such as slow coloring and serious green - returning in some areas, leading to continuous price drops. - Technical analysis: The 2510 contract has fallen sharply, breaking below the 10 - day moving average. - Strategy: Close long positions and pay attention to the support of the 20 - day moving average. The support for the 2510 contract is 7848, and the resistance is 7930 [21].

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content Core Viewpoints of the Report - Trump's remarks on pressuring Russia briefly boosted oil prices, but the energy - chemical sector remained relatively calm under the strong performance of crude oil. The market is waiting for the results of the July Politburo meeting and whether there are any demand - side policies exceeding expectations [1][2] - If the anti - involution description in the meeting is mainly aimed at emerging downstream industries rather than upstream, and there is no compulsion or expansion, the anti - involution hype may end [2] Summary by Relevant Catalogs Crude Oil - Logic: Trump's remarks briefly boosted oil prices, but OPEC+ is accelerating production, and the supply pressure in the third quarter has increased sharply. The North American peak season is ending, and the U.S. refined oil has been accumulating inventory for two consecutive weeks, with future supply - demand pressure gradually emerging [3] - Technical Analysis: The daily - level中期 structure is oscillating/declining, and the hourly - level short - term structure is oscillating. It has reached the upper edge of the oscillation range, with short - term pressure at 520. The strategy is to look for short - selling opportunities on the hourly cycle when there is a volume - increasing reverse - wrapping negative line below the pressure [3] Styrene (EB) - Logic: Supply and operation have increased, port inventory has been continuously accumulating, and actual demand has not improved. New device production is approaching, so the fundamental driving force is bearish [5] - Technical Analysis: The hourly - level short - term structure is declining. After hitting a new low at the opening, it rebounded and oscillated. The strategy is to look for short - selling opportunities on the 15 - minute cycle with a pressure level of 7400 [5] Rubber - Logic: Although the precipitation in Hainan and Southeast Asia has postponed the supply increase, the new round of typhoon is moving north, and supply increase is a certain path. The downstream tire inventory is at a historical high, so the demand is bearish. The current inventory is also at a high level [8] - Technical Analysis: The daily - level中期 structure is declining, and the hourly - level short - term structure is oscillating. After hitting a new low at the opening, it rebounded and oscillated. The strategy is to look for short - selling opportunities on the 15 - minute cycle with a pressure level of 15100 [8] Synthetic Rubber (BR) - Logic: Supply device operation has increased, and production has rebounded. The downstream tire inventory is at a historical high, so the demand is bearish. Although the recent arrival volume of butadiene is low, the medium - term fundamental pressure is still large [13] - Technical Analysis: The daily - level中期 structure is oscillating/declining, and the hourly - level short - term structure is oscillating. After hitting a new low at the opening, it rebounded and oscillated. The strategy is to look for short - selling opportunities on the 15 - minute cycle with a pressure level of 12000 [13] PX - Logic: Polyester operation continues to decline, demand expectations are pessimistic, supply operation is rising, and supply - demand is weak. It mainly follows the fluctuations of crude oil, which is expected to decline significantly [17] - Technical Analysis: The hourly - level short - term structure is oscillating. After a short - term rebound with reduced positions, the strategy is to look for short - selling opportunities on the 15 - minute cycle with a pressure level of 6975 [17] PTA - Logic: Short - term supply - demand changes are small, inventory levels are not high, and short - term fundamental contradictions are not significant. It mainly follows the fluctuations of crude oil, which is expected to decline significantly [21] - Technical Analysis: The hourly - level short - term structure is oscillating. After a short - term rebound with reduced positions, the strategy is to look for short - selling opportunities on the 15 - minute cycle with a pressure level of 4855 [21] PP - Logic: Downstream demand is sluggish, supply - side operation fluctuates slightly, but previous maintenance devices will restart and new production capacity will be put into use, so supply pressure is expected to continue. Inventory has been continuously accumulating, and the fundamental driving force is bearish [24] - Technical Analysis: The hourly - level short - term structure is oscillating. After a small rebound with reduced positions, the strategy is to look for short - selling opportunities on the 15 - minute cycle with a pressure level of 7165 [24] Methanol - Logic: Domestic supply is at a high level, downstream demand is weak, port inventory is continuously accumulating, and short - term fundamentals are average. Attention should be paid to the cost side and recent sentiment drivers [27] - Technical Analysis: The daily - level中期 structure is declining/oscillating, and the short - term structure is declining. After a rebound with reduced positions, the strategy is to look for short - selling opportunities on the hourly cycle when there is a volume - increasing reverse - wrapping negative line [27] PVC - Logic: Supply has increased, demand in the off - season is still sluggish, inventory has been continuously accumulating, and the anti - involution sentiment has declined significantly. It should be treated bearishly [31] - Technical Analysis: The daily - level中期 structure is rising, and the hourly - level short - term structure is oscillating. After a rebound with reduced positions, the strategy is to look for short - selling opportunities on the 15 - minute cycle with a pressure level of 5210 [31] Ethylene Glycol (EG) - Logic: Operation has slightly decreased, demand is weak, and there are both short - term low - inventory and medium - term inventory - accumulation expectations. The anti - involution sentiment has declined significantly. It should be treated bearishly [34] - Technical Analysis: The daily - level中期 structure is oscillating/declining, and the hourly - level short - term structure is oscillating. After a small rebound, the strategy is to look for short - selling opportunities on the hourly cycle when there is a volume - increasing reverse - wrapping negative line [34] Plastic - Logic: Maintenance devices will restart in late July, operation is rising, downstream demand is weak, and the anti - involution sentiment has declined significantly. It should be treated bearishly [36] - Technical Analysis: The daily - level中期 structure is oscillating/declining, and the hourly - level structure is oscillating. After a small rebound, the strategy is to look for short - selling opportunities on the hourly cycle when there is a volume - increasing reverse - wrapping negative line [36]

情绪反转下,能化向下修复 | 品种 | 中期结构 | 短期结构 | 小时周期策略 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 原油 | 震荡/偏 | 震荡 | 15 分钟寻试空机会 | | | 室 | | | | EB | 震荡 | 偏空 | 15 分钟寻试空机会 | | PX | 震荡 | 震荡 | 15 分钟寻试空机会 | | PTA | 農荡 | 震荡 | 15 分钟寻试空机会 | | PP | 農荡 | 農荡 | 15 分钟寻试空机会 | | 塑料 | 震荡 | 震荡 | 15 分钟寻试空机会 | | 曲壁 | 震荡 | 偏空 | 15 分钟寻试空机会 | | EG | 震荡 | 震荡 | 15 分钟寻试空机会 | | 橡胶 | 震荡 | 震荡 | 15 分钟寻试空机会 | | PVC | 偏多 | 震荡 | 15 分钟寻试空机会 | | BR 橡胶 | 偏空 | 震荡 | 15 分钟寻试空机会 | 板块观点汇总 行情日评: 今日 6 品种封死跌停,反内卷情绪大幅降温,前期驱动化工上行 的情绪反转,能化面临向下修复,同时成本端原油旺季尾声下供需压 力逐渐增大,能化仍延续此前基本面偏弱观 ...

情绪加持，能化偏强 | 品种 | 中期结构 | 短期结构 | 小时周期策略 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 原油 | 震荡/偏 | 震荡 | 空单止损 | | | 空 | | | | EB | 震荡 | 偏多 | 观望 | | PX | 震荡 | 偏多 | 观望 | | PTA | 震荡 | 偏空 | 空单止损 | | PP | 震荡 | 偏多 | 观望 | | 塑料 | 震荡 | 偏多 | 观望 | | 甲醇 | 震荡 | 偏多 | 观望 | | EG | 震荡 | 偏多 | 观望 | | 橡胶 | 震荡 | 偏多 | 观望 | | PVC | 偏多 | 偏多 | 观望 | | BR 橡胶 | 偏空 | 偏多 | 观望 | 板块观点汇总 行情日评： （一）原油： 逻辑：目前原油基本面上仍处消费旺季，低库存与偏强需求给予 短期支撑，但美国原油加工量与炼厂开工见顶回落，旺季需求逻辑接 近尾声，中期 OPEC+增产下压力将逐步兑现。 日度技术追踪：原油日线级别中期震荡/下跌结构，小时级别短 期震荡结构。今日日内震荡收上 510 一线，短期暂看震荡。策略小时 周期空单止损后观望。 数据来 ...

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided in the given content. 2. Core View of the Report - The conflict between Thailand and Cambodia has a minimal actual impact on rubber, with only short - term emotional disturbances. The conflict is likely a military action, and the probability of further expansion is low as Thailand's military power far exceeds Cambodia's, and the conflict is near China [2]. - The energy - chemical sector is affected by market sentiment, with prices rising and then falling. Different varieties have different market trends and investment strategies based on fundamentals and technical analysis [1][2]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs (1) Crude Oil - Logic: In the short term, low inventory and strong demand support the price during the consumption peak season, but the peak of US crude oil processing volume and refinery operation has passed, and the mid - term pressure will gradually emerge with OPEC+ production increase [4][5]. - Technical Analysis: Mid - term oscillating/downward structure on the daily level, short - term downward structure on the hourly level. Today, it increased in volume and rebounded to test the short - term pressure at 510, but did not break through effectively [5]. - Strategy: Hold short positions on the hourly cycle, and move the stop - loss up to today's high of 511 [5]. (2) Styrene (EB) - Logic: Supply and operation are at a high level, new production capacity is to be put into operation, demand is weak, and inventory pressure is high. The market's bullish sentiment has cooled [9]. - Technical Analysis: Short - term upward structure on the hourly level, oscillating today, with the support at 7375 still holding [9]. - Strategy: Wait and see on the hourly cycle [9]. (3) Rubber - Logic: Rainfall and typhoon speculation in Hainan support the short - term spot price, and the warm macro - commodity sentiment also helps. However, the mid - term supply will increase while demand remains weak, and the market's bullish sentiment has cooled [12]. - Technical Analysis: Mid - term downward structure on the daily level, short - term upward structure on the hourly level. It rose today and then declined in the late session, with strong pressure at 15300 [12]. - Strategy: Wait and see on the hourly cycle for short - selling opportunities after the support is broken [12]. (4) Synthetic Rubber (BR) - Logic: The fundamentals are poor. High tire inventory leads to low semi - steel tire operation rate, high supply and production result in slow inventory reduction, and the cost will decline with the commissioning of butadiene plants in the second half of the year. The market's bullish sentiment has cooled [16]. - Technical Analysis: Mid - term oscillating/downward structure on the daily level, short - term upward structure on the hourly level. It increased in volume and may return to the upward trend, with support at 11800 [16]. - Strategy: Wait and see on the hourly cycle for short - selling opportunities after the support is broken [16]. (5) PX - Logic: The cost of crude oil is weak, summer demand is weakening, polyester production is decreasing, demand expectations are pessimistic, and supply is recovering. The short - term fundamentals are weak, and the market's bullish sentiment has cooled [20]. - Technical Analysis: Short - term upward structure on the hourly level, increased in volume and reversed the short - term trend, with support at 6835 [20]. - Strategy: Stop the short - position loss and wait and see on the hourly cycle [20]. (6) PTA - Logic: The cost of crude oil is weak. Summer demand is weakening, polyester production is decreasing, demand expectations are pessimistic, and supply is at a medium level. The short - term fundamentals are weak, and the market's bullish sentiment has cooled [23]. - Technical Analysis: Short - term downward structure on the hourly level, increased in volume and tested the short - term pressure at 4850 [23]. - Strategy: Hold short positions on the hourly cycle [23]. (7) PP - Logic: The cost of crude oil is weak. New plants are planned to be put into operation from July to August, demand is weak in the off - season, and downstream operation is low. Supply and demand are weak, and the market's bullish sentiment has cooled [25]. - Technical Analysis: Short - term upward structure on the hourly level, increased in volume and continued to be strong, with support at 7130 [25]. - Strategy: Wait and see on the hourly cycle [25]. (8) Methanol - Logic: Supply operation has declined but is still at a high level year - on - year. Downstream demand is average, and inventory is continuously increasing. The fundamentals are weak, the market's bullish sentiment has cooled, and it did not follow the rise of coking coal [27]. - Technical Analysis: Mid - term downward/oscillating structure on the daily level, short - term upward structure on the hourly level. It decreased in volume and rose, with the short - term support moved up to 2455 [27]. - Strategy: Wait and see on the hourly cycle [27]. (9) PVC - Logic: The short - term strong sentiment of coal pushes up the cost of chlor - alkali production, supporting the PVC price in the short term. However, demand is still weak, supply operation is at a high level, and inventory is continuously increasing. The fundamentals are still weak, and the market's bullish sentiment has cooled [30]. - Technical Analysis: Mid - term upward structure on the daily level, short - term upward structure on the hourly level. It decreased in volume, rose, and then declined with a long upper shadow in the late session. Pay attention to whether a double - top is formed on the hourly line, with support at 5095 [30]. - Strategy: Wait and see on the hourly cycle [30]. (10) Ethylene Glycol (EG) - Logic: Low port inventory and recent market sentiment support the price in the short term. Pay attention to the time when inventory turns to accumulation under the weak supply - demand expectation. The market's bullish sentiment has cooled [34]. - Technical Analysis: Mid - term oscillating/downward structure on the daily level, short - term upward structure on the hourly level. It increased in volume and rose, with support at 4440 [35]. - Strategy: Wait and see on the hourly cycle [35]. (11) Plastic - Logic: Both the operation of production facilities and downstream operation are at a low level compared to the same period. However, previously shut - down facilities will gradually resume operation, and new production capacity is expected to be put into operation. The mid - term supply - demand expectation is weak, and the market's bullish sentiment has cooled [37]. - Technical Analysis: Mid - term oscillating/downward structure on the daily level, upward structure on the hourly level. It decreased in volume and rose, with support at 7310 [37]. - Strategy: Wait and see on the hourly cycle [37].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core View of the Report The agricultural product sector shows mixed trends. Soybean meal and live pigs prices decline, palm oil and sugar prices rise, while cotton, corn, eggs, and jujubes show fluctuating trends, and apples rise steadily. Each product's price movement is influenced by factors such as supply - demand relationships, international trade, and seasonal characteristics [1]. 3. Summary by Variety Soybean Meal - **Price Movement**: The soybean meal 2509 contract drops significantly due to ample supply and long - position liquidation. The upcoming Sino - US economic and trade talks may improve soybean imports, and the domestic soybean meal supply increases with port arrivals and high oil - mill operation rates, leading to inventory accumulation over 1 million tons [1][2]. - **Technical Analysis**: The contract breaks below short - term moving averages, indicating a weakening trend. The strategy is to close long positions and hold light short positions, with support at 3000 and resistance at 3050 [2]. Palm Oil - **Price Movement**: The palm oil 2509 contract rises strongly, hitting a new high. Indonesian palm oil exports surge, with a 4.27% month - on - month decline in inventory in May and a nearly 50% month - on - month increase in exports. In June, exports increased by 30.5% month - on - month. The active promotion of the biodiesel plan and rising domestic import costs support the price [3]. - **Technical Analysis**: The contract shows a strong upward trend above all moving averages, with a bullish moving - average arrangement and an expanding MACD red column. The strategy is to hold light long positions, with support at 8980 and resistance at 9150 [3]. Live Pigs - **Price Movement**: The live pig 2509 contract drops sharply. The Ministry of Agriculture and Rural Affairs' stable - market policy dampens short - term production - reduction expectations. Weak demand, high temperatures, and increased alternative consumption lead to sluggish pork sales [5]. - **Technical Analysis**: The contract breaks below short - term moving averages, indicating a weakening trend. The strategy is to close long positions and conduct short - term trading, with support at 14280 and resistance at 14500 [5]. Cotton - **Price Movement**: The cotton 2509 contract oscillates with a negative close. The domestic commercial cotton inventory consumption accelerates, but potential quota increases may add to the supply. Import volume from January to June is 460,000 tons, a 74% year - on - year decrease. The downstream textile industry is in a slack season, with poor orders and rising finished - product inventory [7]. - **Technical Analysis**: The contract adjusts at a high level, with long - position liquidation. The price falls below the 5 - day moving average but is supported by the 10 - day moving average. The strategy is to close long positions and conduct short - term trading, with support at 14090 and resistance at 14205 [7]. Corn - **Price Movement**: The corn 2509 contract fluctuates narrowly. The continuous auction of imported corn by the China National Grain Reserves Corporation has a shrinking transaction rate. Wheat substitution and the approaching spring - corn harvest pressure the price, while imports in June are 156,000 tons, an 82.7% year - on - year decrease [9]. - **Technical Analysis**: The contract fluctuates around short - term moving averages. The strategy is to close long positions and conduct short - term trading, with support at 2308 and resistance at 2330 [9]. Sugar - **Price Movement**: The Zhengzhou sugar 2509 contract rises strongly, hitting a new high. The high sales rate during the summer consumption peak and low inventory support the price, but the expected increase in imported sugar is a resistance factor [11]. - **Technical Analysis**: The contract stands above the moving - average system, with an expanding MACD red column. The strategy is to hold light long positions, with support at 5825 and resistance at 5900 [11]. Eggs - **Price Movement**: The egg 2509 contract fluctuates narrowly after large swings. The supply side has high pressure from newly - laid eggs, but hot weather reduces laying rates and inventory is low at all levels. The demand peak is delayed, and the high futures premium limits the rebound space [14]. - **Technical Analysis**: The contract enters a narrow - fluctuation phase after large - scale oscillations, with both long and short positions reducing. The strategy is short - term trading, with support at 3610 and resistance at 3652 [14]. Soybean Oil - **Price Movement**: The soybean oil 2509 contract oscillates upward, entering an uptrend. The strong performance of palm oil drives soybean oil up, but the high arrival of imported soybeans and rising inventory may limit the increase [15][17]. - **Technical Analysis**: The contract rebounds above the moving - average system, showing a strengthening trend. The strategy is to hold light long positions, with support at 8068 and resistance at 8198 [17]. Jujubes - **Price Movement**: The jujube 2601 contract first declines and then rises, showing an oscillating trend. New - jujube production is estimated to be 560,000 - 620,000 tons, a 20 - 25% year - on - year decrease, but the reduction is less than expected. The consumption is in the off - season, and inventory is higher than last year [18]. - **Technical Analysis**: The contract oscillates downward with narrow fluctuations. The strategy is to close long positions and conduct short - term trading, with support at 10360 and resistance at 10680 [18]. Apples - **Price Movement**: The apple 2510 contract rises steadily. The inventory is at a five - year low, with 704,500 tons as of July 23, a decrease of 101,500 tons from the previous period. The high price of early - maturing apples boosts market confidence, but weather risks exist during the fruit - expansion period [20]. - **Technical Analysis**: The contract rises steadily above the moving - average system, hitting a new high, with an expanding MACD red column. The strategy is to hold light long positions, with support at 7932 and resistance at 8014 [20].

一、农产品板块综述 棕榈油劲升，市场预期马来西亚棕榈油局即将公布的月度供需报 告偏多，因马棕产量下滑和出口需求强劲，驱动棕榈油期价劲升，关 注 MPOB 月度数据是否超出市场预期。玉米继续探低，受到中储粮持 续拍卖进口玉米以及小麦饲用替代优势明显等利空压力，后市或偏弱 运行。豆粕震荡偏弱，油厂压榨量维持峰值，豆粕供应增加，库存持 续累积令豆粕期价承压走低。苹果跌幅扩大，因销售淡季以及夏季消 暑类水果冲击带来的偏空压力令苹果下挫。 二、品种策略跟踪 （一）棕榈油：强劲上扬 棕油劲升、玉米探低 2.大连玉米主力 2509 合约继续下行探新低，MACD 绿柱扩大，持 续技术弱势，策略上轻仓空单，主力 2509 合约支撑 2300，阻力 2330。 数据来源：天富期货研询部、博易云 数据来源：天富期货研询部、博易云 （三）鸡蛋：继续下跌 焦点关注：鸡蛋主力 2508 合约继续下跌，受到高产能高供应的 压力： 焦点关注：棕榈油主力 2509 合约强劲上扬，创下逾 3 个月高点， 因市场预期 MPOB 月报数据可能偏多，提振棕油劲升： 1.马来西亚棕榈油局（MPOB）即将在 7 月 10 日公布马棕榈油月 度供需报告，市 ...

能化依然弱势 | 品种 | 中期结构 | 短期结构 | 小时周期策略 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 原油 | 震荡/偏 | 偏空 | 空单持有 | | | 空 | | | | EB | 震荡 | 偏空 | 空单持有 | | PX | 偏空 | 偏空 | 空单持有 | | PTA | 偏空 | 偏空 | 空单持有 | | PP | 震荡 | 偏空 | 空单持有 | | 塑料 | 震荡 | 偏空 | 空单持有 | | 甲醇 | 震荡 | 偏空 | 空单持有 | | EG | 震荡 | 偏空 | 空单持有 | | 橡胶 | 偏空 | 偏空 | 空单持有 | | PVC | 偏空 | 偏空 | 空单持有 | | BR 橡胶 | 偏空 | 偏空 | 空单持有 | 板块观点汇总 行情日评： "反内卷"预期对 PVC 或有潜在利多预期影响，目前多数化工下 游需求端产能过剩远大与供应端，"反内卷"对能化利多预期影响有 限，目前仍是偏空对待。 （一）原油： 逻辑：OPEC+确定 8 月增产 54.7 万桶/日，增产提速超预期，中 期供应过剩压力进一步加大，但盘面未加速破位，主要仍是消费旺季 下原油 ...