Report Industry Investment Rating - The industry of energy and chemicals is maintained with a weak outlook [1] Core Viewpoints of the Report - The geopolitical premium in crude oil due to the Iran situation is facing a correction, and supply surplus is driving the price down. Chemicals are generally under pressure due to high supply, high inventory, and weak demand [2][3] Summary by Relevant Catalogs Crude Oil - Logic: The Iran geopolitical sentiment peaked on January 14 and reversed on January 15. The premium is being unwound, and supply surplus is pushing the price down [2][3] - Technical analysis: Daily and hourly charts show a downward structure. Hold short - positions with a stop - loss at 447, and there is a chance for a second short - entry [3][4] Asphalt - Logic: Weak supply - demand fundamentals in the off - season, the Venezuela situation is cooling, and the cost center is likely to shift down as the geopolitical premium in crude oil fades [8] - Technical analysis: Hourly chart shows a short - term oscillation. Temporarily hold off on trading [8] Styrene - Logic: Recent supply - demand improvement supports the price, but there are signs of a potential peak. After a breakdown, focus on short opportunities in pure benzene [10] - Technical analysis: Hourly chart shows a short - term upward structure with a potential top. The short - term support is at 7200 (03 contract). Temporarily hold off on trading and wait for a breakdown to short on rebounds [10][12] Pure Benzene - Logic: The price is pushed up by hedging purchases, but high inventory and potential pressure from crude oil price drops mean not to chase high prices [13] - Technical analysis: Hourly chart shows a short - term upward structure with a potential top. The short - term support is at 5580 (03 contract), and the 15 - minute support is at 515. Temporarily hold off on trading and look for short opportunities on rebounds after a 15 - minute breakdown [13] Rubber - Logic: No supply - side speculation before the new tapping season, weak demand due to high tire inventory, and high imports in Qingdao. It moves passively and weaker than synthetic rubber [16] - Technical analysis: Daily chart shows a medium - term oscillation, and the hourly chart shows a short - term decline. Look for short opportunities after a rebound, with a short - term pressure at 15900 [16] Synthetic Rubber - Logic: The cost - end crude oil may peak soon, and the driving logic for the previous rise is breaking down. The supply of butadiene is high, and synthetic rubber will face cost pressure [19][22] - Technical analysis: Daily chart shows a medium - term upward structure, and the hourly chart shows a short - term decline. Hold short - positions with a stop - loss at 11950 and look for a second short - entry at night [22] PX - Logic: The price rose due to early - stage capital inflow but is now facing a short - term correction due to increased supply, weak downstream acceptance, and a lower cost center. Wait for a second low - entry opportunity in the medium - term [26] - Technical analysis: Daily chart shows a medium - term upward structure, and the hourly chart shows a short - term decline. Temporarily hold off on trading during this short - term decline [26] PTA - Logic: High supply, weak downstream acceptance in the off - season, and a lower cost center lead to a short - term correction [27] - Technical analysis: Daily chart shows a medium - term upward structure, and the hourly chart shows a short - term decline. Temporarily hold off on trading [29] PP - Logic: The olefin industry chain has a weak fundamental outlook. It lacks a long - side driver and is suitable for a hedging strategy of long aromatics (PX, PTA) and short olefins [31] - Technical analysis: Hourly chart shows a short - term decline. Temporarily hold off on trading and look for short opportunities after a rebound [31] Methanol - Logic: Geopolitical premium is being unwound, high domestic supply, falling coal prices, high port inventory, and negative demand feedback [34] - Technical analysis: Daily and hourly charts show a decline. Look for short - entry opportunities on rebounds with a stop - loss at 2255 [34] PVC - Logic: High supply, high inventory, and weak demand. The differential electricity price policy in Shaanxi may reduce calcium carbide production, and the cancellation of export tax - rebate has a short - term positive and long - term negative impact [38] - Technical analysis: Daily chart shows a medium - term decline, and the hourly chart shows a short - term oscillation. Temporarily hold off on trading and look for short opportunities on rebounds in the 15 - minute cycle [38] Ethylene Glycol - Logic: High supply, weak demand in the off - season, and increasing port inventory lead to a downward - driving fundamental situation [39] - Technical analysis: Daily and hourly charts show a decline. Hold short - positions with a take - profit at 3770 [41] Plastic - Logic: The olefin industry chain has a weak fundamental outlook. It lacks a long - side driver and is suitable for a hedging strategy of long aromatics (PX, PTA) and short olefins [44] - Technical analysis: Daily and hourly charts show a decline. Wait for a rebound and then a short - entry signal [44] Soda Ash - Logic: High production, high inventory, and weak demand. There may be a rush - to - export market before April, but the export pressure will increase after April. Look for short opportunities after a rebound [46] - Technical analysis: Hourly chart shows a short - term decline. Temporarily hold off on trading and look for short opportunities on rebounds in the 15 - minute cycle [46] Caustic Soda - Logic: High supply, high inventory, and weak demand. The supply pressure remains high, and the downward trend is hard to reverse [50] - Technical analysis: Hourly chart shows a short - term decline. Temporarily hold off on trading and do not bottom - fish before the structure turns bullish [50]

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Core Viewpoints - The palm oil price continues to rise due to supply disruptions and strong demand, and it may remain strong in the future. The sugar price keeps falling because of sufficient supply and weak demand, and it is expected to decline further. The prices of live pigs, soybean meal, and cotton are all under pressure, while the egg price shows a narrow - range fluctuation [1][2][3]. Summary by Related Catalogs 1. Agricultural Products Sector Overview - Palm oil prices continue to rise. Indonesia's revocation of 28 companies' operating licenses and Malaysia's production - reduction and export - increase situation support the price. Sugar prices keep falling due to sufficient supply from new domestic sugar and increased imports and weak demand [1]. 2. Variety Strategy Tracking (1) Palm Oil - The palm oil main contract 2605 continues to rise strongly. Indonesia's revocation of 28 companies' licenses affects the supply. From January 1 - 20, Malaysia's palm oil production decreased by 16.06% month - on - month, and exports increased by 11.04% month - on - month. It is expected that the inventory reduction in January may be large. During the Spring Festival, demand may improve. Technically, it is strong. The strategy is to look for support levels at 8750 - 8780 to go long with a light position [2]. (2) Sugar - The Zhengzhou sugar main contract 2605 continues to fall. New sugar is concentrated on the market, and in December, China's sugar imports were 580,000 tons, a year - on - year increase of 47.9%. The cumulative imports from January to December 2025 were 4.92 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 13.1%. The pre - festival stocking has limited effect, and the downstream purchasing slows down. Technically, it is weak. The strategy is to go short with a light position at the resistance area of 5180 - 5200 [3]. (3) Live Pigs - The live pig main contract 2603 continues to fall. The pig slaughter level is high, and the inventory at the end of 2025 was 429.67 million, a year - on - year increase of 0.5%. The pre - festival stocking has not fully started, and the demand is insufficient. Technically, it is weak. The strategy is to go short with a light position at the resistance area of 11600 - 11700 [5]. (4) Soybean Meal - The soybean meal main contract 2605 rebounds weakly. The downstream feed enterprise pre - festival stocking is nearly over, and the inventory may rise. The raw material import of soybeans is large, and the supply is sufficient. Technically, it is weak. The strategy is to go short with a light position for short - term trading [7]. (5) Eggs - The egg main contract 2603 has a narrow - range fluctuation. The egg - laying hen inventory is high, and the supply is sufficient. The pre - festival stocking supports the price, but the downstream is afraid of high prices. Technically, it shows some strength. The strategy is short - term trading [9]. (6) Cotton - The cotton main contract 2605 first rises and then falls. The expected decrease in Xinjiang's cotton planting area in 2026 has been digested. In December 2025, cotton imports increased by nearly 50% month - on - month, and the annual import in 2025 was 1.07 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of 59.1%. The inventory increased slightly. The demand is resilient. Technically, it is weak. The strategy is short - term trading [12].

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the report 2. Report's Core View - The lithium carbonate market is volatile, with potential price increases in the medium - to - long - term due to strong terminal demand for domestic energy storage projects. The polysilicon market is expected to be volatile and slightly stronger in the short - term but with limited upside. The industrial silicon market has a high inventory and weak demand, and its price may decline [1][7][15]. 3. Summary by Commodity Lithium Carbonate - **Market Trend**: The lithium carbonate futures contract 2605 rose 3.89% to 166,740 yuan/ton compared to the previous trading day [1]. - **Core Logic**: Although the new energy vehicle sales from January 1st - 11th dropped significantly, the "rush to export" behavior of downstream lithium carbonate enterprises and the resumption of production by some phosphate - iron - lithium enterprises increased demand. On the supply side, some lithium mines in Yichun are facing license replacement and production suspension, causing concerns about supply stability. Most of the inventory is in the hands of traders, and the inventory of smelters and downstream enterprises is low [1]. - **Technical Analysis**: The 5 - minute and overnight 2 - hour cycles of the 2605 contract show certain trends, with a long - short dividing line of 146,200 yuan/ton [1]. - **Strategy Suggestion**: Be cautious in the short - term, wait for the market to stabilize and then buy at low prices. In the long - term, the price center may move up [2][3]. Polysilicon - **Market Trend**: The polysilicon futures contract 2605 fell 1.97% to 49,700 yuan/ton compared to the previous trading day [7]. - **Core Logic**: Some leading polysilicon enterprises plan to stop production, and the output in February is expected to decline. The demand is expected to increase due to the increase in the production schedule of cells and components from January to February. However, the market will return to cost - based trading after the anti - monopoly news, and high inventory will suppress prices [7][9]. - **Technical Analysis**: The 5 - minute and overnight 2 - hour cycles of the 2605 contract show certain trends, with a long - short dividing line of 48,670 yuan/ton [9]. - **Strategy Suggestion**: It may be volatile and slightly stronger in the short - term. Pay attention to the subsequent policies of "anti - involution" [10][11]. Industrial Silicon - **Market Trend**: The industrial silicon futures contract 2605 rose 0.40% to 8,780 yuan/ton compared to the previous trading day [15]. - **Core Logic**: The supply is decreasing as the southwest production area has a low operating rate and the northwest production area has frequent production - cut news. The demand is weak, and the overall inventory is at a five - year high, so the price may decline [15]. - **Technical Analysis**: The market is controlled by short - sellers. The 5 - minute and overnight 2 - hour cycles of the 2605 contract show certain trends, with a long - short dividing line of 8,605 yuan/ton [15]. - **Strategy Suggestion**: Sell short when the price is high. Refer to the band winner indicator during the 8:30 live broadcast [15].

Report Summary 1. Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the report 2. Core Viewpoints - The palm oil market is expected to be bullish due to reduced production and increased exports in Malaysia, while the sugar market is likely to be bearish because of seasonal supply pressure and increased imports [1][2][3] - The hog market is short - term bearish, affected by high supply and insufficient demand; the soybean meal market has a limited rebound and still faces pressure; the egg market is in a weak oscillation; the cotton market continues to decline but the decline slows down [5][7][9][11] 3. Summary by Variety Palm Oil - The palm oil main 2605 contract is strongly rising. In January, the production of Malaysian palm oil decreased by 18.24% month - on - month, and exports from January 1 - 20 increased by 8.64% month - on - month. It is expected that the inventory reduction in January may be large. Technically, it is strong, and the strategy is to look for support levels to buy lightly at low prices, with the support range at 8662 - 8700 [2] Sugar - The Zhengzhou sugar main 2605 contract breaks downward. The southern sugar cane is in the peak crushing season, and the import in December was 580,000 tons, a year - on - year increase of 47.9%. The cumulative import from January to December 2025 was 4.92 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 13.1%. Technically, it is weak, and the strategy is to hold light short positions, with the resistance area at 5200 - 5240 [3] Hog - The hog main 2603 contract continues to fall sharply. The national pig inventory at the end of 2025 was 429.67 million, a year - on - year increase of 0.5%. The overall capacity reduction is slow, and the demand is insufficient. Technically, it is weak, and the strategy is short - term trading, paying attention to whether the 40 - day moving average of 11,500 can support [5] Soybean Meal - The soybean meal main 2605 contract rebounds at a low level but the rebound is limited. The domestic soybean oil mill's crushing volume has decreased, and the inventory has declined for three consecutive weeks. As of the third weekend in 2026, the inventory was 948,000 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 40.97%, but the pressure is still large. Technically, it is weak, and the strategy is to participate in short - selling in the short - term with a stop - loss [7] Egg - The egg main 2603 contract oscillates weakly. The egg - laying hen inventory is high, and the market trading has weakened. The production - link inventory has increased, and the high inventory still has a large supply pressure. The strategy is short - term trading [9] Cotton - The cotton main 2605 contract continues to fall but the decline slows. Some long positions are closing, and the import in December increased by nearly 50% month - on - month, while the annual import in 2025 was 1.07 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of 59.1%. Technically, it is weak, and the strategy is short - term trading [11]

Report Industry Investment Rating - The report maintains a bearish outlook on the energy and chemical industry [1] Core Viewpoints - The geopolitical premium on crude oil due to the Iran situation is set to reverse, and supply - side pressures will drive prices down. For chemicals, high - supply and high - inventory situations in many products will cause price adjustments, with some products facing demand - side negative feedback [2] Content Summaries by Category Crude Oil - Logic: The Iran geopolitical sentiment peaked on the night of January 14 and reversed on January 15, leading to the reversal of the geopolitical premium on crude oil, and supply - side pressures will drive prices down [3] - Technical Analysis: The daily - level shows a medium - term downward structure, and the hourly - level shows a short - term downward structure. Hold short positions on the hourly cycle, with a stop - loss reference of 447 [3] Asphalt - Logic: Weak supply - demand fundamentals during the off - season, potential recovery of Venezuela's oil exports, and a decline in the cost center due to the reversal of crude oil's geopolitical premium [6][7] - Technical Analysis: The hourly - level shows a short - term oscillatory structure. Temporarily hold off on trading on the hourly cycle [7] Styrene - Logic: The port inventory is decreasing, but the rate is slowing. Short - term supply - demand tightness provides support, but there is pressure on the cost center due to the potential decline in crude oil prices. Pay attention to the pre - holiday demand [8] - Technical Analysis: The hourly - level shows a short - term upward structure. Temporarily hold off on trading on the hourly cycle and wait for a short - selling opportunity after the price breaks the support [8] Pure Benzene - Logic: An increase in the pure benzene - styrene - methanol spread has pushed up the price, but high port inventories and potential downward pressure on crude oil prices pose risks. Avoid chasing high prices [12] - Technical Analysis: The hourly - level shows a short - term upward structure. Temporarily hold off on trading on the hourly cycle and look for short - selling opportunities after a small - cycle breakdown [12] Rubber - Logic: Before the new tapping season, there is no supply - side speculation. High tire inventories limit demand, and high imports lead to high Qingdao inventories. It follows synthetic rubber passively [15] - Technical Analysis: The daily - level shows a medium - term oscillatory structure, and the hourly - level shows a short - term downward structure. Look for short - selling opportunities after a rebound on the hourly cycle [15] Synthetic Rubber - Logic: The rebound of crude oil is likely to peak. The previous cost - push logic is weakening, and there are issues such as high inventories and weak downstream demand. It will be under cost - related pressure [18] - Technical Analysis: The daily - level shows a medium - term upward structure, and the hourly - level shows a short - term downward structure. Hold short positions from the 15 - minute cycle on the hourly cycle, with a stop - loss reference of 11950 [18] PX - Logic: Although the mid - term fundamentals are strong, recent supply increases and weak downstream demand have led to a short - term negative feedback. Wait for a second low - buying opportunity [20] - Technical Analysis: The daily - level shows a medium - term upward structure, and the hourly - level shows a short - term downward structure. Temporarily hold off on trading on the hourly cycle [20][23] PTA - Logic: High supply, weak downstream demand, and a decline in the cost center due to lower crude oil prices lead to short - term negative feedback [25] - Technical Analysis: The daily - level shows a medium - term upward structure, and the hourly - level shows a short - term downward structure. Temporarily hold off on trading on the hourly cycle [25] PP - Logic: The fundamentals of the olefin industry chain are weak, with new capacity and off - season demand. It is recommended for a hedging strategy as part of a chemical portfolio [27] - Technical Analysis: The hourly - level shows a short - term downward structure. Temporarily hold off on trading on the hourly cycle and look for short - selling opportunities after a rebound [27] Methanol - Logic: The supply speculation due to the Iran situation is cooling, and there is high domestic supply, a potential decline in coal prices, and demand - side negative feedback [30] - Technical Analysis: The daily - level and short - term both show a downward structure. Look for short - selling opportunities after a rebound on the hourly cycle [30] PVC - Logic: High supply, high inventory, and weak demand persist. There is a short - term positive impact from potential power - price policies, but the long - term outlook is still bearish [31] - Technical Analysis: The daily - level shows a medium - term downward structure, and the hourly - level shows a short - term oscillatory structure. Temporarily hold off on trading on the hourly cycle and use a short - selling strategy during small - cycle rebounds [33] Ethylene Glycol (EG) - Logic: High supply, weak demand during the off - season, and increasing port inventories drive the price down [35] - Technical Analysis: The daily - level shows a medium - term downward structure, and the hourly - level shows a short - term downward structure. Hold short positions on the hourly cycle, with a profit - taking reference of 3770 [35] Plastic - Logic: The fundamentals of the olefin industry chain are weak, with new capacity and off - season demand. It is recommended for a hedging strategy as part of a chemical portfolio [38] - Technical Analysis: The daily - level shows a medium - term downward structure, and the hourly - level shows a short - term downward structure. Wait for a reverse - package entry signal after a rebound on the hourly cycle [38] Soda Ash - Logic: High production, high inventory, and weak demand. There will be a pre - April rush - to - export situation, but the post - April export pressure will increase. Adopt a short - selling strategy after a rebound [40] - Technical Analysis: The hourly - level shows a short - term downward structure. Temporarily hold off on trading on the hourly cycle and look for short - selling opportunities during small - cycle rebounds [40] Caustic Soda - Logic: High supply, high inventory, and weak demand. The supply pressure remains high, and the downward trend is difficult to reverse [42] - Technical Analysis: The hourly - level shows a short - term downward structure. Temporarily hold off on trading on the hourly cycle and avoid bottom - fishing before the structure turns bullish [42]

Report Summary 1. Industry Investment Ratings No industry investment ratings are provided in the report. 2. Core Views - The lithium carbonate market is affected by supply - side concerns due to lithium mine license replacement and production suspension in Yichun, and the demand side shows a "rush - to - export" behavior. In the long - term, the price center may move up [1][2][3]. - The industrial silicon market is under downward pressure due to weak demand and high inventory, and the price still has room to fall [7][9]. - The polysilicon market is in a state of weak supply and demand with high inventory, and is expected to maintain an oscillating pattern [14][15]. 3. Summary by Commodity Lithium Carbonate - **Market Trend**: The lithium carbonate futures hit the daily limit today, with the main 2605 contract at 160,500 yuan/ton [1]. - **Core Logic**: Supply concerns are triggered by the license replacement and production suspension of lithium mines in Yichun. The demand side is driven by the "rush - to - export" behavior, and the production of some phosphoric acid iron - lithium enterprises has recovered [1]. - **Technical Analysis**: The 5 - minute level cycle of the 2605 contract is red line, red band, and red ladder. The overnight 2 - hour level cycle is a strong red ladder line, with the long - short dividing water level at 146,200 yuan/ton [1]. - **Strategy Suggestion**: In the short - term, operate cautiously and wait for the market to stabilize before buying at low prices. In the long - term, the price center may move up due to strong terminal demand [2][3]. Industrial Silicon - **Market Trend**: The industrial silicon futures oscillated weakly today, with the 2605 contract down 1.13% from the previous trading day's closing price, at 8,745 yuan/ton [7]. - **Core Logic**: The impact of the planned production cut by a large Xinjiang factory yesterday has weakened. Supply is decreasing, and demand remains weak with low开工 rate and no pre - holiday stocking. High inventory also puts downward pressure on prices [7][9]. - **Technical Analysis**: The overall position of industrial silicon futures continues to decline. The 5 - minute level cycle of the 2605 contract is green line, red band, and green ladder. The overnight 2 - hour level cycle is a strong red ladder line, with the long - short dividing water level at 8,605 yuan/ton [9]. - **Strategy Suggestion**: Operate by shorting at high prices, and refer to the Band Winner indicator during intraday trading [9]. Polysilicon - **Market Trend**: The polysilicon futures oscillated today, with the main 2605 contract up 0.39% from the previous trading day's closing price, at 50,700 yuan/ton [14]. - **Core Logic**: After the market supervision department's约谈, the silicon material price will return to cost - based competition. The supply and demand are both weak, and high inventory suppresses prices [14]. - **Technical Analysis**: The position of polysilicon futures continues to decline. The 5 - minute level cycle of the 2605 contract is green line, red band, and green ladder. The overnight 2 - hour level cycle has turned into a strong red ladder line, with the long - short dividing water level at 48,420 yuan/ton [14]. - **Strategy Suggestion**: The market is expected to maintain an oscillating pattern, and attention should be paid to the subsequent policy direction of "anti - involution" [15].

Report Summary 1. Industry Investment Rating No investment rating information is provided in the report. 2. Core View The report analyzes the trends of various agricultural products. Palm oil prices are under pressure due to Indonesia's policy changes and high inventories, while egg prices are rising due to supply reduction and increased demand. The prices of other products such as pork, soybean meal, cotton, and sugar are also affected by different supply - demand factors [1][2][5]. 3. Summary by Variety Palm Oil - Palm oil prices are falling. Indonesia canceled the B50 plan and will continue with B40, easing supply concerns. Malaysia's December palm oil inventory reached a nearly seven - year high. Indonesia will raise the export tax on crude palm oil from 10% to 12.5% on March 1, and China's pre - emptive purchases and high domestic inventories also add pressure [2]. - The main 2605 contract of palm oil has fallen below the 40 - day moving average, with weakening technical indicators. It is recommended to close long positions [3][6]. Egg - Egg prices are rising. Due to the continuous culling of old hens and a decrease in the number of newly - laid hens in January, egg production capacity has decreased. The start of Spring Festival stocking and increased purchases by food processing enterprises have led to rising prices [5]. - The main 2603 contract of eggs has broken through the moving average system, with strengthening technical indicators. It is recommended to enter long positions when the price finds support during fluctuations [5]. Pig - The price of live pigs first rose and then fell, but the upward trend remains. After the peak slaughter in December 2025, the number of pigs slaughtered by large - scale enterprises in January decreased, and the market has a strong mentality of holding back sales. The peak demand season before the Spring Festival supports the price of pigs [7]. - The main 2603 contract of live pigs is still above the moving average. It is recommended to go long with a light position on dips, with support at 11850 - 11900 [7]. Soybean Meal - Soybean meal prices are fluctuating downward. China's large imports of soybeans and high domestic soybean meal inventories have put pressure on prices [9]. - The main 2605 contract of soybean meal is below the moving average system, with weakening technical indicators. It is recommended to participate in short - selling with a stop - loss [9]. Cotton - Cotton prices are fluctuating at a high level. Although some long positions are being closed, the market has not reversed. The expected decrease in cotton planting area in Xinjiang in 2026, strong demand, and optimistic export expectations support cotton prices [12]. - The main 2605 contract of cotton is fluctuating near the short - term moving average. It is recommended to hold long positions, with support at 14550 - 14620 [12]. Sugar - Sugar prices are fluctuating sideways. The peak of sugar production in southern China has led to sufficient supply, while Spring Festival stocking has boosted demand [14]. - The main 2605 contract of sugar is fluctuating sideways. It is recommended to participate in short - term long positions with a light position and set a stop - loss at the 40 - day moving average [14].

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints - The geopolitical sentiment towards Iran has reversed and cooled down, which remains the main short - term driver. Geopolitical premium is a short - term disturbance, and the mid - term strategy for oil is to go short after the geopolitical sentiment subsides [1][3]. - Chemical products are also affected by geopolitical sentiment in the short term and will continue to show a differentiated trend [1]. Summary by Directory Crude Oil - Logic: EIA crude oil and refined oil inventories increased, indicating market oversupply. However, the market is more focused on the geopolitical risk in Iran. Geopolitical uncertainty is high, and the worst - case scenario is based on the small - scale air strike in June last year and Iran's limited retaliation. Geopolitical premium is a short - term factor, and the mid - term strategy is to go short [1][2][3]. - Technical Analysis: The daily - level shows a mid - term downward structure, and the hourly - level short - term upward structure may end. Today, it fell after reducing positions at a high level, breaking below the short - term support at 447. The strategy is to look for short - selling opportunities after a rebound in the hourly cycle [3]. Asphalt - Logic: The downstream terminal demand is in the off - season. The market is mainly concerned about the future flow of Venezuelan Merey crude oil. Currently, Venezuelan crude oil exports have basically stopped, but if exports resume, the previous upward logic of asphalt due to raw material shortage will be broken [5]. - Technical Analysis: The hourly - level shows a short - term upward structure. Today, it fluctuated within the day, maintaining a small - cycle oscillation range of 15 minutes. The strategy is to wait and see in the hourly cycle [5]. Styrene - Logic: The weekly operating rate of styrene is 70.92%, slightly increasing month - on - month and at a low level year - on - year. Both supply and demand are weak. However, since December, export inquiries and actual transactions have increased, and port inventories have decreased significantly. The continuous inventory reduction and commodity sentiment have led to a short - term strong performance. But there are concerns about the sustainability of the raw material strength after the Iranian unrest subsides [8]. - Technical Analysis: The hourly - level shows a short - term upward structure. Today, it rose and then fell. The short - term support is at 6990 (02 contract). The strategy is to wait and see in the hourly cycle and look for short - selling opportunities after a rebound if it breaks below the support [8]. Rubber - Logic: The terminal tire inventory is high, and the inventory in Qingdao continues to increase and is higher year - on - year. There is no disturbance on the supply side for now. This upward trend is passively following the synthetic rubber. With the weakening of downstream tire operating rates, the upward space is limited [11]. - Technical Analysis: The daily - level shows a mid - term oscillation structure, and the hourly - level shows a short - term upward structure. Today, it increased positions and then fell to test the support below. The short - term support is at 15800. The strategy is to wait and see in the hourly cycle [11]. Synthetic Rubber - Logic: The supply remains high, but the downstream's phased restocking has led to inventory reduction of synthetic rubber and its raw material butadiene. The strengthening of butadiene has driven the upward movement of synthetic rubber from the cost side. However, the spot trading of butadiene weakened over the weekend, and the tire operating rate weakened again, limiting the upward space [15]. - Technical Analysis: The daily - level shows a mid - term upward structure, and the hourly - level shows a short - term upward structure. Today, it rose and then fell. The short - term support is at 11800. The strategy is to wait and see in the hourly cycle [15]. PX - Logic: The fundamentals of PX - PTA are strong both in reality and in expectation. In December, capital inflows led to a sharp price increase. However, downstream polyester has a low acceptance of high prices during the off - season, and some large polyester filament manufacturers have started to reduce production. It is facing a short - term callback due to negative feedback. In the mid - term, there is an opportunity for a second low - buying due to the expected supply shortage in the first half of the year [19]. - Technical Analysis: The daily - level shows a mid - term upward structure, and the hourly - level shows a short - term oscillation structure on the verge of breaking. Today, it fell sharply, breaking below the lower limit of the range at 7120. The strategy is to wait and see in the hourly cycle [19]. PTA - Logic: Similar to PX, the fundamentals of PX - PTA are strong, but downstream polyester's low acceptance of high prices during the off - season and production cuts by some manufacturers lead to a short - term callback. In the mid - term, there is an opportunity for a second low - buying due to the expected supply shortage in the first half of the year [23]. - Technical Analysis: The daily - level shows a mid - term upward structure, and the hourly - level shows a short - term oscillation structure. Today, it tested the lower limit of the oscillation range at 5010. The strategy is to wait and see in the hourly cycle [23]. PP - Logic: The fundamentals of the olefin industry chain where PP - plastic belongs are still weak. With new capacity release pressure and the off - season of demand, the supply - demand drive is weak. It lacks a one - sided long - buying drive and is recommended to be used in the hedging strategy of going long on aromatics (PX, PTA) and going short on olefins (PP, plastic) [25][27][39]. - Technical Analysis: The hourly - level shows a short - term upward structure. Today, it rose and then fell. The short - term support is at 6430. The strategy is to wait and see in the hourly cycle [27]. Methanol - Logic: Domestic supply remains high, and the expected reduction in imports in January has been priced in. Downstream traditional demand is expected to decrease before the Spring Festival, and MTO demand is expected to decline due to compressed profits. Both port and inland inventories are high, and the port inventory is 154 million tons, 80% higher year - on - year. If the inventory reduction rate in January is slow, there will be pressure. Also, the appreciation of the RMB has lowered the import cost. As the Iranian unrest subsides, the geopolitical premium will be reversed [29]. - Technical Analysis: The daily - level shows a mid - term downward structure and a short - term upward structure. Today, it rose and then fell. The short - term support is at 2200. The strategy is to wait and see in the hourly cycle after closing out short positions in the 15 - minute cycle [29]. PVC - Logic: PVC still has a pattern of high supply, high inventory, and weak demand. However, Shaanxi's planned differential electricity price may lead to a reduction in calcium carbide production. The cancellation of the VAT export tax rebate for PVC from April 1, 2026, brings short - term positive and long - term negative drivers, with an expected short - term domestic inventory reduction due to pre - export rush [32]. - Technical Analysis: The daily - level shows a mid - term downward structure, and the hourly - level shows a short - term upward structure. Today, it fluctuated within the day, and the short - term support is at 4725. The strategy is to wait and see in the hourly cycle [32]. Ethylene Glycol - Logic: Terminal demand is in the traditional off - season, and there is a concern about a decline in polyester operating rates. On the supply side, coal - based production has recovered, domestic weekly production remains high, and new capacity is expected to be put into operation. Port inventories are still increasing, and the fundamentals do not provide a driving force for a sharp reversal [35]. - Technical Analysis: The daily - level shows a mid - term downward structure, and the hourly - level structure is not clear. Today, it increased positions and broke through, and the hourly structure may start to decline. The short - term pressure is at 3900. The strategy is to look for short - selling opportunities after the rebound ends in the hourly cycle [35]. Plastic - Logic: Similar to PP, the fundamentals of the olefin industry chain are weak, lacking a one - sided long - buying drive. It is recommended to be used in the hedging strategy of going long on aromatics (PX, PTA) and going short on olefins (PP, plastic) [39]. - Technical Analysis: The daily - level shows a mid - term downward structure, and the hourly - level shows an upward structure. Today, it rose and then fell. The short - term support is at 6670. The strategy is to wait and see in the hourly cycle [40]. Soda Ash - Logic: The oversupply pattern of soda ash remains unchanged, and there is no expected increase in terminal demand. After the supply - side maintenance resumed, the operating rate increased, and the previous support from inventory reduction is no longer there. There is no driving force for a sharp reversal [41]. - Technical Analysis: The hourly - level shows a short - term downward structure. Today, it increased positions and had a long - negative candlestick, confirming the short - term downward trend. The strategy is to wait and see in the hourly cycle. If entering the market in the morning, the stop - loss reference is 1215 (15 - minute K - line closing price) [41]. Caustic Soda - Logic: Caustic soda still has a pattern of high supply, high inventory, and weak demand. The supply - demand drive is downward, and there is no sign of a reversal [42]. - Technical Analysis: The hourly - level shows a short - term downward structure. Today, it increased positions and reached a new low. The short - term pressure is at 2125. The strategy is to wait and see in the hourly cycle [42].

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No industry investment rating is provided in the report. 2. Report Core View The report analyzes the market trends, core logics, technical aspects, and provides strategy suggestions for three commodities: lithium carbonate, polysilicon, and industrial silicon futures. It also lists the subsequent focus points for each commodity. 3. Summary by Commodity Lithium Carbonate - **Market Trend**: The lithium carbonate futures fluctuated. The main 2605 contract rose 0.79% from the previous trading day's closing price, reaching 163,220 yuan/ton [1]. - **Core Logic**: After the exchange's regulatory intervention on the 13th, market sentiment cooled. The sharp rise at the beginning of the week was due to the export tax - rebate policy, which might prompt battery companies to stock up, and the booming domestic energy - storage project bidding. However, the continuous decline in positions may lead to a risk of concentrated profit - taking by long positions [1]. - **Technical Analysis**: It is still controlled by long positions. The 5 - minute and overnight 2 - hour cycles show certain trends, with the long - short dividing line at 143,420 yuan/ton. The continuous decline in positions requires caution [2]. - **Strategy Suggestion**: In the context of "strong reality and strong expectation", the operation should be mainly to go long on dips. Avoid chasing highs directly and find good entry points according to certain methods. Listen to the 8:30 morning live - broadcast for specific operations [2][3]. - **Follow - up Focus**: The actual progress of battery exports in the first quarter, the recovery of new energy vehicle sales after subsidy extension, and the actual impact of geopolitical situations on lithium ore supply [4][5]. Polysilicon - **Market Trend**: The polysilicon futures continued to decline. The main 2605 contract fell 0.56% from the previous trading day's closing price, reaching 48,670 yuan/ton [10][12]. - **Core Logic**: After the market supervision department's约谈, the silicon material price will return to cost - based competition. The supply and demand are both weak, and the inventory is at a three - year high. The futures price may continue to fluctuate weakly, and it has reached a six - month low [12]. - **Technical Analysis**: The positions continued to decline. The 5 - minute and overnight 2 - hour cycles show certain trends, with the long - short dividing line at 53,610 yuan/ton [12]. - **Strategy Suggestion**: Wait for low - buying opportunities after stabilization as the decline amplitude is narrowing [12]. - **Follow - up Focus**: The subsequent policy direction of "anti - involution" [13]. Industrial Silicon - **Market Trend**: The industrial silicon futures fluctuated. The 2605 contract decreased 0.29% from the previous trading day's closing price, reaching 8,730 yuan/ton [16]. - **Core Logic**: It is controlled by short positions. The supply and demand are both weak, the downstream procurement is sluggish, and the inventory is at a three - year high. There is cost support below, and it is expected to continue to fluctuate in the short term [16]. - **Technical Analysis**: The overall positions continued to decline. The 5 - minute and overnight 2 - hour cycles show certain trends, with the long - short dividing line at 8,815 yuan/ton [16]. - **Strategy Suggestion**: In the middle of the oscillation range, short on rebounds. Long - term attention should be paid to the impact of polysilicon's return to cost - based pricing on industrial silicon. Refer to the band winner indicator in the 8:30 morning live - broadcast for intraday operations [16]. - **Follow - up Focus**: The subsequent policy direction of "anti - involution" [17].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The short - term driving force of crude oil is centered around the Iranian geopolitical risks. Geopolitical premiums are short - term disturbances, and it is advisable to wait for mid - term short - selling opportunities. Chemical products should be viewed differently. Methanol has significant fundamental pressure, and its geopolitical premium is likely to reverse. The short - term strength of styrene is due to inventory reduction, but the sustainability of the raw material's strength is questionable. PX - PTA is in an adjustment phase, and it is not yet time to enter the second long position. The fundamentals of PP and plastics in the olefin chain are weak, maintaining a bearish view [2]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs (1) Crude Oil - Logic: In addition to the inventory build - up in the first - quarter supply - demand balance sheets of the three major institutions, the API crude oil and refined oil inventories in the US showed a significant build - up again. The market is currently driven by Iranian geopolitical risks, but there are no pre - conditions for a short - term military strike. Geopolitical premiums are short - term disturbances, and mid - term short - selling opportunities should be awaited. - Technical Analysis: The daily - level chart shows a mid - term downward structure, and the hourly - level chart shows a short - term upward structure. It faced resistance at the 447 level today and support is at the 433 (03 contract) level. The hourly - cycle strategy is to wait and see [4]. (2) Asphalt - Logic: The downstream terminal demand is in the off - season. The current pricing of the market mainly depends on the future flow of Venezuelan Merey crude oil. If Venezuelan crude oil flows to the US instead of Asia, the increase in cost of alternative raw materials for domestic refineries will support the market. - Technical Analysis: The hourly - level chart shows a short - term upward structure, with intraday fluctuations returning to the oscillation range. The hourly - cycle strategy is to wait and see [6]. (3) Styrene - Logic: The weekly operating rate is 70.92%, slightly increasing month - on - month but at a low level year - on - year. Both supply and demand are weak. However, since December, export inquiries and actual transactions have increased, and port inventories have decreased significantly. The continuous inventory reduction and market sentiment have led to short - term strength, but the sustainability of the raw material's strength is questionable. - Technical Analysis: The hourly - level chart shows a short - term upward structure, reaching a short - term high with increased positions today. The short - term support has moved up to the 6990 level. The hourly - cycle strategy is to wait and see, and look for short - selling opportunities after a rebound when the support is broken [10]. (4) Rubber - Logic: Terminal tire inventories are high, and Qingdao's natural rubber inventories continue to build up and are higher than the same period last year. There are no disruptions on the supply side, and it is not yet in the speculative stage. This upward movement is a passive follow - up of synthetic rubber, and the upside is limited due to the weakening of downstream tire operating rates. - Technical Analysis: The daily - level chart shows a mid - term oscillation structure, and the hourly - level chart shows a short - term upward structure. It reached a high and then declined today, with the short - term support moving up to the 15800 level. The hourly - cycle strategy is to wait and see [14]. (5) Synthetic Rubber - Logic: Supply remains high, but the downstream's phased restocking has led to inventory reduction of synthetic rubber and its raw material butadiene. The strengthening of butadiene has driven the upward movement of synthetic rubber from the cost side. However, the spot trading of butadiene weakened over the weekend, and tire operating rates weakened again, limiting the upside. - Technical Analysis: The daily - level chart shows a mid - term upward structure, and the hourly - level chart shows a short - term upward structure. It increased in volume today. The short - term support has moved up to the 11800 level. The hourly - level strategy is to wait and see [18]. (6) PX - Logic: The fundamentals of PX - PTA are strong in both reality and expectation. In December, capital inflows led to a significant price increase, but downstream polyester has a low acceptance of high prices during the off - season. Some large polyester filament manufacturers are reducing production, leading to a short - term correction. In the mid - term, there is an expected supply shortage in the first half of the year, so it is advisable to wait for a second low - buying opportunity. - Technical Analysis: The daily - level chart shows a mid - term upward structure, and the hourly - level chart shows a short - term oscillation structure. It fluctuated within the day today, with short - term pressure at the 7420 level. The hourly - level strategy is to wait and see [22]. (7) PTA - Logic: Similar to PX, the fundamentals of PX - PTA are strong in both reality and expectation. In December, capital inflows led to a significant price increase, but downstream polyester has a low acceptance of high prices during the off - season. Some large polyester filament manufacturers are reducing production, leading to a short - term correction. In the mid - term, there is an expected supply shortage in the first half of the year, so it is advisable to wait for a second low - buying opportunity. - Technical Analysis: The daily - level chart shows a mid - term upward structure, and the hourly - level chart shows a short - term oscillation structure. It fluctuated within the day today, with short - term pressure at the 5220 level. The hourly - level strategy is to wait and see [23][25]. (8) PP - Logic: The fundamentals of the olefin industry chain to which PP belongs are still weak. With new production capacity coming on stream and the off - season of demand, the supply - demand drive is weak. There is no driving force for a long - position. It is recommended to use a chemical configuration logic of going long on aromatics (PX, PTA) and short on olefins (PP, plastics) in the mid - term. - Technical Analysis: The hourly - level chart shows a short - term upward structure. It closed slightly up with reduced positions today. The short - term support is at the 6430 level. The hourly - cycle strategy is to wait and see [26]. (9) Methanol - Logic: Domestic supply remains high, and the expected reduction in imports in January has been priced in the market. Downstream traditional demand is expected to decrease before the Spring Festival, and MTO demand is expected to decline due to compressed profits. Both port and inland inventories are high, and the port inventory is 154 million tons, 80% higher than the same period last year. The Iranian unrest is gradually subsiding, and the geopolitical premium is likely to reverse. - Technical Analysis: The daily - level chart shows a mid - term downward structure, and the hourly - level chart shows a short - term upward structure. It increased in volume today but failed to break through the upper limit of the 15 - minute oscillation range. The short - term (hourly) support is at the 2200 level. The hourly - cycle strategy is to wait and see, and hold a short position on the 15 - minute chart with a stop - loss at the 2300 level [29]. (10) PVC - Logic: The pattern of high supply, high inventory, and weak demand remains. However, the proposed differential electricity price in Shaanxi may lead to a reduction in calcium carbide production, which is positive. The announcement of canceling the VAT export tax rebate for PVC from April 1, 2026, brings short - term positive and long - term negative effects, with a short - term expectation of inventory reduction due to pre - export rush. - Technical Analysis: The daily - level chart shows a mid - term downward structure, and the hourly - level chart shows a short - term upward structure. It oscillated within the day today, with short - term support at the 4725 level. The hourly - cycle strategy is to wait and see [32]. (11) Ethylene Glycol - Logic: Terminal demand is in the traditional off - season, and there are concerns about a decline in polyester operating rates. On the supply side, coal - based production has recovered, and domestic weekly production remains high, with new production capacity expected. Port inventories are still building up, and there is no driving force for a significant reversal. - Technical Analysis: The daily - level chart shows a mid - term downward structure, and the hourly - level structure is unclear. It increased in volume with reduced positions today, and the short - term support is at the 3800 level. The hourly - cycle strategy is to wait and see [35]. (12) Plastics - Logic: Similar to PP, the fundamentals of the olefin industry chain to which plastics belong are still weak. With new production capacity coming on stream and the off - season of demand, the supply - demand drive is weak. There is no driving force for a long - position. It is recommended to use a chemical configuration logic of going long on aromatics (PX, PTA) and short on olefins (PP, plastics) in the mid - term. - Technical Analysis: The daily - level chart shows a mid - term downward structure, and the hourly - level chart shows a short - term upward structure. It increased in volume with reduced positions today. The short - term support is at the 66070 level. The hourly - cycle strategy is to wait and see [37][39]. (13) Soda Ash - Logic: The oversupply situation of soda ash remains unchanged, and there is little expectation of an increase in terminal demand. After the resumption of maintenance on the supply side, the operating rate has increased, and the previous support from inventory reduction is no longer there. There is no driving force for a significant reversal. - Technical Analysis: The hourly - level structure is unclear. It oscillated within the day today. Pay attention to short - selling opportunities after a small - cycle rebound when the price breaks below the lower limit of the 15 - minute oscillation range at the 1200 level. The hourly - cycle strategy is to wait and see [41]. (14) Caustic Soda - Logic: Caustic soda still has a pattern of high supply, high inventory, and weak demand. The supply - demand drive is downward, and there is no sign of a reversal. - Technical Analysis: The hourly - level chart shows a short - term downward structure. It reached a new low with increased positions today. The short - term pressure is at the 2125 level. The hourly - cycle strategy is to wait and see [43].