Report Summary 1. Industry Investment Rating No investment rating for the industry is provided in the report. 2. Core View On Tuesday, the agricultural by - products and soft commodities in the agricultural products sector showed a weak trend. Sugar prices dropped significantly due to increased imports and the start of the new sugarcane pressing season, and the downward trend is expected to continue. The hog futures price also broke through the support level, with supply exceeding demand. Other products such as soybean meal, eggs, and cotton are also under pressure, while apples maintain an upward trend, and palm oil fluctuates within a range [1]. 3. Summary by Variety (1) Sugar - Zhengzhou sugar main contract 2601 continued to decline sharply after breaking through the support level. High sugar imports (750,000 tons in October, a 39% year - on - year increase; 3.9 million tons from January to October, a 14% year - on - year increase) and the start of the sugarcane pressing season in Guangxi increased supply pressure. The strategy is to continue to short with a light position [2]. (2) Hog - The main hog contract 2601 broke through the support level, with high supply (high inventory of breeding sows, high planned slaughter in November, and the release pressure of second - fattening) and weak demand (delayed curing consumption due to warm winter). The strategy is to continue to short with a light position [3]. (3) Soybean Meal - The main soybean meal contract 2601 rose first and then fell. Sufficient imports of soybeans, high operating rate of oil mills (66% this week), high inventory of soybean meal, and weak downstream demand led to price pressure. The strategy is to try shorting with a light position [5]. (4) Palm Oil - The main palm oil contract 2601 continued to fluctuate within a range. Malaysian exports decreased in the first half of November (down 10% - 15.5% month - on - month), while production increased (up 4.3% month - on - month), but the B50 plan in Indonesia and the approaching production reduction season provided support. The strategy is to wait for the price to break through the range or conduct short - term trading within the range (support at 8600, resistance at 8774) [8]. (5) Apple - The main apple contract 2601 fluctuated at a high level. High - quality apples in the western region and strong demand for small apples in Shandong, along with旺盛 export demand, supported the price. The overall inventory is at a low level (7.6424 million tons as of November 12, a 10.59% year - on - year decrease). The strategy is to go long with a light position on dips (support at 9323, resistance at 9500) [9][11]. (6) Egg - The main egg contract 2601 continued to decline. High egg - laying hen inventory, weak demand after Double 11, slow capacity reduction, and increased inventory led to price pressure. The strategy is to continue to short with a light position [12]. (7) Peanut - The main peanut contract 2601 rose first and then fell, with a volatile market. Loosened price - holding psychology of traders, slow supply progress in Henan, and weak demand from oil mills. The strategy is to close long positions and conduct short - term trading (support at 7900, resistance at 8000) [17]. (8) Red Date - The main red date contract 2601 rebounded at a low level. High inventory of old dates and new date listing increased supply pressure. The strategy is to close short positions and pay attention to the resistance at the 10 - day moving average (support at 9185, resistance at 9445) [19]. (9) Cotton - The main cotton contract 2601 continued to decline. Increased commercial inventory (up 15.26% month - on - month to 3.2824 million tons as of November 14), rising port inventory, and weak demand in the textile industry led to price pressure. The strategy is to short with a light position (support at 13300, resistance at 13460) [20].

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints - Crude oil continues to oscillate, lacking short - term drivers, with geopolitical drivers potentially becoming the short - term main line; some energy and chemical products operate independently of crude oil, and the blending logic may drive the upward movement of aromatic products; methanol has high inventory pressure but may have a mid - term long - making logic [1][3]. Summary by Category Crude Oil - **Logic**: Last week's large fluctuations were due to the continuous strengthening of European and American refined oil and the expected weakening in the EIA monthly report. Currently, short - term drivers have not changed significantly, and the supply - demand logic is not smooth. Geopolitical drivers are worthy of attention, and a short - selling opportunity may arise after the US military action against Venezuela [3]. - **Technical Analysis**: The daily - level is in a mid - term downward structure, and the hourly - level is in a short - term oscillating structure. The strategy is to wait and see on the hourly cycle [3]. Styrene - **Logic**: Recently, it has been relatively strong, with the rebound logic including short - term supply - demand improvement and the blending logic. The mid - term is still pessimistic due to supply - demand surplus and seasonal inventory accumulation [5][8]. - **Technical Analysis**: The hourly - level is in a short - term upward structure, with a short - term support at 6400. The strategy is to wait and see on the hourly level and look for short - selling opportunities after the daily - level rebound [8]. Rubber - **Logic**: The short - term contradiction is not prominent, and it is necessary to track the inventory accumulation rate. There is no fundamental driver for now [9]. - **Technical Analysis**: The daily - level is in a mid - term downward structure, and the hourly - level is in a short - term upward structure. Hold long positions on the hourly cycle with a stop - loss at 15130, but the upward space is limited [9]. Synthetic Rubber - **Logic**: The internal contradiction is not large, and it is necessary to focus on the cost - end butadiene drive, which also faces mid - term inventory swelling pressure [12]. - **Technical Analysis**: The daily - level is in a mid - term downward structure, and the hourly - level is in a short - term upward structure. The strategy is to wait and see on the hourly cycle [12]. PX - **Logic**: The polyester industry chain's self - contradiction is not large. Pay attention to the blending logic and the geopolitical upgrade risk in the Caribbean region [16]. - **Technical Analysis**: The hourly - level is in a short - term upward structure, with a short - term support at 6715. Hold long positions on the hourly level with a stop - loss at 6715 [16]. PTA - **Logic**: Similar to PX, pay attention to the blending logic and the geopolitical upgrade risk in the Caribbean region [19]. - **Technical Analysis**: The hourly - level is in a short - term upward structure, with a short - term support at 4620. Hold long positions on the hourly level with a stop - loss at 4620 [19]. PP - **Logic**: High supply pressure continues, and downstream demand is weak. Pay attention to the cost - end crude oil drive [23]. - **Technical Analysis**: The hourly - level is in a short - term downward structure, with a short - term pressure at 6520. The strategy is to wait and see on the hourly cycle [23]. Methanol - **Logic**: High inventory in ports suppresses the market, but domestic supply - demand structure has improved. Wait for long - making opportunities after the Iranian gas restriction is implemented and the price breaks through the pressure level. Also, pay attention to geopolitical drivers [25][27]. - **Technical Analysis**: The daily - level and short - term are in a downward structure. There are signs of short - term stabilization. Hold short positions on the hourly cycle with a stop - profit at 2040, and look for long - making opportunities after the price breaks through 2040 [27]. PVC - **Logic**: High supply and high inventory continue, with no upward driver due to weak real - estate demand [29]. - **Technical Analysis**: The daily - level is in a mid - term downward structure, and the hourly - level is in a short - term downward structure. Hold short positions on the hourly cycle [31]. Ethylene Glycol - **Logic**: High supply pressure and inventory accumulation. Be vigilant against short - term geopolitical risks in crude oil [32]. - **Technical Analysis**: The daily - level and hourly - level are in a downward structure. The downward momentum has weakened. The strategy is to wait and see on the hourly cycle [32]. Plastic - **Logic**: High supply, weak demand, and inventory accumulation. Be vigilant against short - term geopolitical risks in crude oil [35]. - **Technical Analysis**: The daily - level is in a mid - term downward structure, and the hourly - level is in an oscillating structure. The strategy is to wait and see on the hourly cycle [35]. Soda Ash - **Logic**: High supply and high inventory continue, with a downward fundamental drive [39]. - **Technical Analysis**: The hourly - level is in a downward structure. The downward momentum has weakened. Hold short positions on the remaining hourly cycle with a stop - profit at 1245 [39]. Caustic Soda - **Logic**: High supply pressure and weak demand, with no upward driver [40]. - **Technical Analysis**: The hourly - level is in a downward structure. The strategy is to wait and see on the hourly cycle [40].

豆粕、生猪下挫 一、农产品板块综述 周一农产品板块大部分品种下跌，豆粕大幅走低，受到美豆下挫 的带动，国内进口大豆充足，豆粕库存在百万吨高位，多头回吐令期 价高位下跌，后市续调整空间。生猪下挫，供应端生猪存栏高位，需 求端腌腊季需求推迟，供大于需格局压制猪价走低。 二、品种策略跟踪 （一）豆粕：大幅下跌 焦点关注：豆粕主力 2601 合约大幅下挫，受美豆下跌的带动： 1. 美国农业部公布的 11 月大豆供需报告将 2025/26 年度美国大 豆单产和产量预估值分别从上个月的53.5蒲式耳/英亩和43.01亿蒲 式耳下调至 53 蒲式耳/英亩和 42.53 亿蒲式耳，数据调整不及市场预 期，引发抛售，美豆下挫带动连粕走低。国内进口大豆到港充足，油 厂豆粕库存在百万吨的高水平，下游饲料企业采购一般，豆粕价格承 压下跌。 2.豆粕主力 2601 合约大幅下跌，期价跌破 10 日均线，呈现高位 回调态势，策略上多单平仓，关注中期均线支撑。 （二）生猪：跳空下行 焦点关注：生猪主力 2601 合约跳空下行，走势偏弱： 1. 供应端能繁母猪存栏量仍高出正常保有量叠加生产效率提升， 产能过剩局面未变。11 月规模猪企计划出 ...

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints of the Report - Crude oil continues to oscillate, lacking clear short - term drivers, with geopolitical factors potentially becoming the short - term main line. The aromatics sector should focus on the sustainability of the blending oil logic. Methanol lacks upward drivers in the short term but has mid - term long - making logic [1]. Summary by Related Catalogs Crude Oil - **Logic**: The sharp fluctuations last week were due to the strengthening of refined oil in Europe and the US and the weakening expectations in the EIA monthly report. Currently, the three drivers show little change. The tight supply pattern of gasoline and diesel may gradually improve. Geopolitical factors in the Caribbean are worthy of attention, and a military action by the US against Venezuela could provide a short - term high - selling opportunity [2][3]. - **Technical Analysis**: Medium - term downward structure on the daily line and short - term oscillatory structure on the hourly line. Maintain an oscillatory view, and wait and see on the hourly cycle [3]. Styrene - **Logic**: It has been relatively strong recently. The rebound is driven by short - term supply - demand improvement and the blending oil logic. In the medium term, it faces the risk of over - supply and seasonal inventory accumulation. Geopolitical factors also need attention [5][8]. - **Technical Analysis**: Short - term upward structure on the hourly line. Set a stop - profit for short positions on the hourly level and wait for a rebound on the daily level to re - enter short positions [8]. Rubber - **Logic**: The short - term contradiction is not prominent. Observe the inventory accumulation rate during the peak season. There is currently no fundamental driver [9]. - **Technical Analysis**: Medium - term downward structure on the daily line and short - term upward structure on the hourly line. There is a short - term support at 15130. Try long positions on the hourly cycle with a stop - loss at 15130, but the upside space is limited [9]. Synthetic Rubber - **Logic**: The internal contradiction is not significant. Focus on the cost - side driver of butadiene, which may face inventory - swelling pressure in the medium term [12]. - **Technical Analysis**: Medium - term and short - term downward structures on the daily and hourly lines respectively. Wait and see on the hourly cycle with a short - term pressure at 10500 [12]. PX - **Logic**: The polyester industry's internal contradiction is not large. After the hype of production cuts fades, focus on the blending oil logic and geopolitical risks in the Caribbean [16]. - **Technical Analysis**: Short - term upward structure on the hourly line. Hold long positions on the hourly level with a stop - loss at 6715 [16]. PTA - **Logic**: Similar to PX, focus on the blending oil logic and geopolitical risks in the Caribbean after the weakening of production - cut expectations [19]. - **Technical Analysis**: Short - term upward structure on the hourly line. Hold long positions on the hourly level with a stop - loss at 4620 [19]. PP - **Logic**: High supply pressure continues, and downstream demand is weak. Pay attention to the cost - side driver of crude oil [23]. - **Technical Analysis**: Short - term downward structure on the hourly line. Set a stop - profit for short positions on the hourly level and wait and see, with a short - term pressure at 6530 [23]. Methanol - **Logic**: High inventory in ports suppresses the price, but the domestic supply - demand structure is improving. Wait for the opportunity to go long when Iranian gas restrictions are implemented and the price breaks through 2125. Geopolitical factors may also provide a long - entry opportunity [25][27]. - **Technical Analysis**: Medium - and short - term downward structures on the daily line. Hold short positions on the hourly level with a stop - profit at 2125, or take the initiative to stop - profit. Look for long - entry opportunities after the price breaks through 2125 [27]. PVC - **Logic**: High supply and high inventory continue, with weak domestic demand. There is no upward driver [29]. - **Technical Analysis**: Medium - and short - term downward structures on the daily and hourly lines respectively. Hold short positions on the hourly level with a short - term pressure at 4625 [31]. Ethylene Glycol - **Logic**: High supply and inventory accumulation. Be wary of short - term geopolitical risks in crude oil [32]. - **Technical Analysis**: Medium - and short - term downward structures on the daily and hourly lines respectively. Set a stop - profit for short positions on the hourly level and wait and see, with a short - term pressure at 3950 [32]. Plastic - **Logic**: High supply, weak demand, and inventory accumulation. Be wary of short - term geopolitical risks in crude oil [34]. - **Technical Analysis**: Medium - term downward structure on the daily line and short - term upward structure on the hourly line. Wait and see on the hourly cycle with a short - term support at 6800 [34]. Soda Ash - **Logic**: High supply and high inventory continue, with a downward fundamental driver [36]. - **Technical Analysis**: Short - term downward structure on the hourly line. Hold remaining short positions on the hourly level with a stop - profit at 1245 [39]. Caustic Soda - **Logic**: High supply pressure and weak demand. There is no upward driver in supply - demand [40]. - **Technical Analysis**: Short - term downward structure on the hourly line. Wait and see on the hourly cycle with a short - term pressure at 2400 [40].

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints - The rapeseed oil market is expected to continue its upward trend due to inventory depletion and overseas bio - fuel policies [1][2]. - The apple market may maintain its strength because of low inventory and tight deliverable supplies [1][3]. - The egg market is likely to keep falling as a result of high hen inventory and weakening demand [1][5]. - The hog market will continue to fluctuate at a low level, with a slight short - term rebound but limited space [7]. - The soybean meal market will run at a high level with short - term strength, suitable for short - term trading [9]. - The corn market is expected to keep rising, supported by policy and downstream restocking [11]. - The jujube market will continue to decline due to new jujube listings and high inventory [13]. - The cotton market is likely to fall as supply increases [15]. - The sugar market is expected to rise, driven by external market trends and domestic supply shortages [17]. 3. Summary by Variety Rapeseed Oil - The rapeseed oil主力 2601 contract has been rising strongly, supported by overseas bio - fuel policies and inventory depletion. As of the end of the 45th week in 2025, domestic imported rapeseed oil inventory was 51.6 million tons, a 10% week - on - week decrease. The strategy is to hold light long positions [2]. Apple - The apple主力 2601 contract reached a new high this year, supported by low inventory. As of November 12, the national apple cold - storage inventory was 764.24 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of 10.59%. The strategy is to hold light long positions with support at 9200 and resistance at 9500 [3]. Egg - The egg主力 2601 contract has been falling sharply, pressured by sufficient supply and weakening demand. The strategy is to hold light short positions with support at 3250 and resistance at 3303 [5]. Hog - The hog主力 2601 contract first declined and then rebounded, continuing to fluctuate at a low level. The strategy is to close short positions, with support at 11690 and resistance at 11970 [7]. Soybean Meal - The soybean meal主力 2601 contract has been rising in a volatile manner, running at a high level. The strategy is short - term trading, with support at 3050 and resistance at 3089 [9]. Corn - The corn主力 2601 contract has been rising strongly, supported by policy and downstream restocking. The strategy is to hold light long positions, with support at 2170 and resistance at 2200 [11]. Jujube - The jujube主力 2601 contract has been falling sharply, pressured by new jujube listings and high inventory. As of the week of November 6, the inventory of 36 sample physical warehouses was 9541 tons, a 2.06% week - on - week increase. The strategy is to hold light short positions, with support at 9150 and resistance at 9360 [13]. Cotton - The cotton主力 2601 contract has been falling in a volatile manner, pressured by increased supply. The strategy is to try light short positions, with support at 13435 and resistance at 13545 [15]. Sugar - The sugar主力 2601 contract has been rising strongly, driven by external market trends and domestic supply shortages. The strategy is to hold light long positions, with support at 5473 and resistance at 5519 [17].

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints - The agricultural products sector shows mixed trends, with eggs falling sharply, oils and fats fluctuating strongly, and corn maintaining an upward trend [1]. Summary by Variety Eggs - The near - month main contracts 2512 and 2601 of eggs dropped significantly due to sufficient supply and weakening demand. The high inventory of laying hens and the slow elimination of old hens led to continuous supply pressure. After Double 11, the sales volume of e - commerce and supermarkets is expected to decline. The 2601 contract broke through the support level, and the technical indicators turned weak. A light - position short - selling strategy is recommended, with support at 3298 and resistance at 3350 [2]. Soybean Oil - The main 2601 contract of soybean oil continued to rise due to the decline in inventory. The increase in the price of CBOT soybean oil in the external market and the decline in the domestic oil mill operating rate led to a significant reduction in supply and inventory. As of the 45th weekend, the domestic soybean oil inventory was 1.37 million tons, a week - on - week decrease of 6.26%. The technical indicators showed strength. A light - position long - buying strategy is recommended, with support at 8234 and resistance at 8300 [3]. Hogs - The main 2601 contract of hogs fluctuated at a low level. The supply side had high inventory of sows, and the planned slaughter volume of large - scale pig enterprises in November was still high. The demand side had a slow start of curing and weak recovery of the catering industry. The technical indicators were weak. A light - position short - selling strategy is recommended, with support at 11580 and resistance at 12000 [5]. Soybean Meal - The main 2601 contract of soybean meal first declined and then rose, fluctuating at a high level. The improvement of Sino - US economic and trade relations may lead to the re - export of US soybeans to the Chinese market, but the import tariff is still high. The domestic supply of imported soybeans is sufficient, and downstream feed enterprises mainly purchase on a just - in - time basis. A short - term trading strategy is recommended, with support at 3044 and resistance at 3089 [7]. Corn - The main 2601 contract of corn fluctuated narrowly at a high level, maintaining an upward trend. The grain sales progress in the Northeast was better than expected, and the increase in new grain was reduced. The continuous purchase of the central grain reserve supported the price. Downstream feed and deep - processing enterprises had a demand for replenishment. The technical indicators showed strength. A light - position long - buying strategy is recommended, with support at 2166 and resistance at 2200 [10]. Red Dates - The main 2601 contract of red dates continued to fall. The new jujubes in the Xinjiang main production area were about to be listed, and the inventory increased. As of November 6, the physical inventory of 36 sample points was 9541 tons, a week - on - week increase of 2.06%, much higher than the same period last year. The technical indicators showed a downward trend. A light - position short - selling strategy is recommended, with support at 9335 and resistance at 9550 [13]. Cotton - The main 2601 contract of cotton fluctuated and declined, showing a weak trend. The supply increased as the picking and sales of Xinjiang cotton were basically completed, and the commercial inventory increased significantly. Some textile enterprises in the inland reduced their operating rates due to cost pressure. A short - term trading strategy is recommended, with support at 13435 and resistance at 13580 [14]. Apples - The main 2601 contract of apples fluctuated narrowly at a high level. The inventory level was lower than the same period last year, and the proportion of high - quality fruits was low. The technical indicators showed strength. A light - position long - buying strategy is recommended, with support at 9148 and resistance at 9250 [17]. White Sugar - The main 2601 contract of white sugar fluctuated narrowly and showed a strong trend. The peak of domestic white sugar imports has passed, and the cost of sugar production and strict syrup control policies supported the price. The start - up of sugar cane crushing in Guangxi was postponed, and the supply shortage supported the price. The technical indicators showed strength. A light - position long - buying strategy is recommended, with support at 5467 and resistance at 5490 [19].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core View of the Report - The current fundamentals of polysilicon, lithium carbonate, and industrial silicon lack strong driving forces, and their market trends are expected to be mainly characterized by wide - range oscillations. The polysilicon market is in a situation of weak supply and demand; the lithium carbonate market has a supply - demand contradiction with strong demand and limited supply growth; the industrial silicon market presents a pattern of weak supply and demand as well [1][8][11]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Polysilicon - **Market Performance**: The polysilicon futures opened and fluctuated downward, then rebounded after hitting the bottom in the afternoon. The main 2601 contract rose 2.95% compared to the previous trading day's closing price, reaching 53,460 yuan/ton [1]. - **Fundamentals**: The fundamentals of polysilicon have changed little, with both supply and demand being weak. In November, the domestic polysilicon production is expected to be close to 120,000 tons, a significant decrease from October. The downstream silicon wafer and battery cell industries are facing difficulties, and the demand in the photovoltaic industry chain remains sluggish [1]. - **Technical Analysis**: The overall position of polysilicon futures is basically the same as yesterday. The main 2601 contract increased positions and declined in the morning, and the price rebounded significantly in the afternoon as short - sellers left the market. There were trading opportunities during the day. The 5 - minute cycle is showing a short - term strong trend, while the 2 - hour cycle is still weakly green but approaching the long - short dividing line. In the long - term, it is in a wide - range oscillation pattern [2][3]. Lithium Carbonate - **Market Performance**: The lithium carbonate futures oscillated within a range. The main 2601 contract rose 0.05% compared to the previous trading day's closing price, reaching 86,580 yuan/ton [5]. - **Fundamentals**: As of November 6, the sample inventory of lithium carbonate dropped to 124,000 tons, with continuous destocking for 12 weeks and an increasing destocking amplitude. In October, the demand for lithium carbonate increased significantly, while the supply growth was limited, resulting in a low inventory - to - sales ratio, which supported the price. Policy factors also indicate strong demand expectations [5][8]. - **Technical Analysis**: The overall position of lithium carbonate futures increased slightly. The main 2601 contract increased positions and rose, with bulls in control. There was a trading opportunity during the day. The 5 - minute cycle shows a short - term strong trend, but the position decreased significantly at the end of the session. The 2 - hour cycle is still strongly red, with the long - short dividing line at 79,140 yuan/ton [8]. Industrial Silicon - **Market Performance**: The industrial silicon futures oscillated. The main 2601 contract rose 0.16% compared to the previous trading day's closing price, reaching 9,195 yuan/ton [11]. - **Fundamentals**: The fundamentals of industrial silicon have tightened. The cost in southern production areas has increased due to the electricity price hike, leading to production cuts. The downstream demand is also weak, resulting in a pattern of weak supply and demand, and it is difficult to have a trending market [11]. - **Technical Analysis**: The overall position of industrial silicon futures decreased significantly. The main 2601 contract decreased positions and declined, with bulls in control. The 5 - minute cycle has turned to a short - term strong trend, but the position has been declining in recent days. The 2 - hour cycle is still strongly red, with the long - short dividing line at 9,020 yuan/ton [14].

Report Industry Investment Rating There is no information provided in the content about the report industry investment rating. Core Viewpoints - The rapeseed oil market is expected to be strong due to factors such as halted rapeseed imports and inventory depletion, while the hog market faces continued downward pressure because of high inventory and slow - growing demand [1]. - Different agricultural products show various trends: rapeseed oil rises, hogs fall, soybean meal fluctuates weakly, corn rises strongly, eggs show a near - weak and far - strong pattern, dates continue to decline, cotton moves sideways, apples rise strongly, and sugar rises oscillating [1][2][3][5][8][9][12][15][17][20]. Summary by Directory I. Agricultural Products Sector Overview - Rapeseed oil is strongly bullish as import stagnation and oil mill shutdowns lead to inventory depletion, and it may remain strong in the future. Hogs are bearish as high inventory and slow - starting demand suppress prices, and there is continued downward pressure [1]. II. Variety Strategy Tracking (1) Rapeseed Oil - The main 2601 contract of rapeseed oil rises strongly due to inventory depletion. With Sino - Canadian trade relations unimproved, import of Canadian rapeseed has stopped, leading to oil mill shutdowns and a 10% week - on - week decrease in inventory as of the 45th weekend. Technically, it is strong, and the strategy is to go long at dips with support at 9572 and resistance at 9838 [2]. (2) Hogs - The main 2601 contract of hogs breaks down due to abundant supply and slow - starting demand. The supply of breeding sows is 3% higher than the normal level, and the demand for curing is slow to start. Technically, it is weak, and the strategy is to go short lightly with support at 11580 and resistance at 12000 [3]. (3) Soybean Meal - The main 2601 contract of soybean meal first rises then falls and fluctuates weakly. Sino - US trade improvement may lead to US soybean exports to China, and domestic soybean supply is sufficient. Technically, it is in a downward adjustment, and the strategy is to close long positions with support at 3034 and resistance at 3064 [5]. (4) Corn - The main 2601 contract of corn rises strongly due to policy support and downstream restocking. The sales progress in the Northeast is better than expected, and downstream enterprises have restocking needs. Technically, it is strong, and the strategy is to go long lightly with support at 2166 and resistance at 2200 [8]. (5) Eggs - The near - month 2512 contract of eggs oscillates downward, while the far - month 2602 contract is strong. High egg - laying hen inventory restricts the near - month contract, while the far - month contract is supported by festival demand. The strategy is to close long positions and go short lightly on the 2512 contract and go long lightly on the 2602 contract, with support at 3128 and resistance at 3198 for the 2512 contract, and support at 3083 and resistance at 3120 for the 2602 contract [9][11]. (6) Dates - The main 2601 contract of dates continues to decline due to new dates on the market and inventory growth. The inventory on November 6 was 9541 tons, a 2.06% week - on - week increase. Technically, it is in a downward trend, and the strategy is to hold short positions with support at 9405 and resistance at 9625 [12][14]. (7) Cotton - The main 2601 contract of cotton moves sideways. New cotton supply increases, and some spinning mills are cautious about restocking. Technically, it shows a weakening trend, and the strategy is to close long positions with support at 13530 and resistance at 13650 [15]. (8) Apples - The main 2601 contract of apples rises strongly. Apple inventory is lower than last year, and the proportion of high - quality fruits is low. Technically, it is strong, and the strategy is to go long lightly with support at 9095 and resistance at 9298 [17]. (9) Sugar - The main 2601 contract of sugar rises oscillating. The peak of sugar imports has passed, and supply shortages support prices. Technically, it turns strong, and the strategy is to go long at dips with support at 5473 and resistance at 5500 [20].

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints - The polysilicon futures market is volatile with a downward trend, affected by factors such as production reduction, weak downstream demand, and market sentiment towards policies [1]. - The lithium carbonate futures market is expected to have a wide - range shock, supported by strong downstream and energy - storage demand, and continuous inventory reduction [5][8]. - The industrial silicon futures market will likely maintain a volatile state due to a supply - demand dual - weak pattern [12]. Summary by Directory Polysilicon - **Market Performance**: The polysilicon futures market had an intraday rise and fall, with the main 2601 contract down 3.33% to 51930 yuan/ton compared to the previous trading day [1]. - **Fundamentals**: There were few changes in the fundamentals. Silicon wafer and battery cell spot prices dropped significantly. The market focus was on the storage platform and enterprise announcements, but market sensitivity decreased. In November, domestic production was expected to be close to 120,000 tons, a significant decrease from October. Downstream demand in the photovoltaic industry chain remained weak, and component tender prices continued to decline [1]. - **Technical Analysis**: The overall position of polysilicon futures increased slightly. The main 2601 contract decreased in price with an increased position, controlled by short - sellers. There were trading opportunities at 9:30 and 13:35. The 5 - minute cycle was in a weak state, and the futures may fluctuate downward. The 2 - hour cycle's long - short dividing line was 53845 yuan/ton [1]. Lithium Carbonate - **Market Performance**: The lithium carbonate futures market also rose and then fell, with the main 2601 contract down 0.80% to 86540 yuan/ton compared to the previous trading day [5]. - **Fundamentals**: Downstream and energy - storage demand was strong, and continuous inventory reduction supported the price. Weekly production increased, and the supply - demand pattern improved marginally. However, the spot market's acceptance of high - priced lithium carbonate was limited. This week's inventory decreased by 3405 tons, a 2.67% decrease, and the social inventory had been decreasing for 12 weeks, with a cumulative reduction of 18465 tons. The smelting profit was restored [5][8]. - **Technical Analysis**: The overall position of lithium carbonate futures increased slightly. The main 2601 contract decreased in price with a decreased position, controlled by long - sellers. The 5 - minute cycle was in a sideways shock state, and it was expected to have a wide - range shock in the short term. The 2 - hour cycle was still strong, and the long - short dividing line was 78560 yuan/ton [8]. Industrial Silicon - **Market Performance**: The industrial silicon futures market fluctuated weakly, with the main 2601 contract down 1.18% to 9180 yuan/ton compared to the previous trading day [12]. - **Fundamentals**: The fundamentals tightened. Most small and medium - sized southern factories reduced or stopped production due to higher electricity prices in the dry season, while some leading enterprises remained stable. Northern large - scale factories' production did not decrease as expected. However, downstream polysilicon production was expected to decrease, and the organic silicon and aluminum alloy industries faced challenges. The overall supply - demand was weak, with no clear trend [12]. - **Technical Analysis**: The overall position of industrial silicon futures decreased. The main 2601 contract decreased in price with a decreased position, controlled by long - sellers. The 5 - minute cycle was weak, and it was expected to have a wide - range shock in the short term. The 2 - hour cycle was still strong, and the long - short dividing line was 8885 yuan/ton [12].

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core View of the Report In the past two weeks, the crude oil market has been in a volatile state due to the delayed realization of the expected supply shock and the digestion of previous short - term geopolitical events. Without clear fundamental and geopolitical drivers, crude oil is likely to continue to fluctuate until new variables emerge. In the energy - chemical sector, different products show different trends. Polyester is hyped for supply cuts, styrene has short - term supply - demand improvement but significant medium - term supply pressure, and methanol has a clear medium - term upward drive. Attention should be paid to the situation in Venezuela and the deployment of the US military in the region [2]. Summary by Directory Crude Oil - Logic: The pressure of crude oil supply surplus remains significant from the end of this year to the first quarter of next year, but the expected supply shock is delayed. After the rebound caused by the US Treasury's sanctions on a Russian oil company was mostly reversed, and with no new geopolitical variables, crude oil is likely to keep fluctuating. The situation in Venezuela is uncertain and not fully priced in the market. Wait for the last high - selling opportunity after possible military actions [4]. - Technical Analysis: The daily - level shows a medium - term downward structure, and the hourly - level shows a short - term volatile structure. It is recommended to wait and see in the hourly cycle [4]. Styrene - Logic: Recently, due to more maintenance, the operating rate has dropped to the lowest in the same period in recent years, but the output is still at a high level. Although the inventory is in the seasonal destocking stage, the destocking rate is lower than in previous years. In the medium - term, there are huge contradictions, especially the seasonal inventory build - up in the first quarter of next year. It is not advisable to short at present, but rather to take profit on previous short positions and wait for a high - selling opportunity [6]. - Technical Analysis: The hourly - level shows a short - term downward structure. Although the short - term downward trend remains unchanged, there are signs of short - position profit - taking. The upper short - term pressure level is at 6345. It is recommended to take profit when geopolitical risks increase and wait for a rebound to re - enter short positions [9]. Rubber - Logic: Since August, the downward trend of rubber has been less smooth than that of synthetic rubber. Although the tire demand has a similar impact on both, the natural rubber has no obvious supply pressure during the Southeast Asian rainy season since October. The short - term supply - demand contradiction is not prominent, and attention should be paid to the driving effect of synthetic rubber [11]. - Technical Analysis: The daily - level shows a medium - term downward structure, and the hourly - level shows a short - term downward structure. The downward momentum has weakened, and the upper short - term pressure is at 15170. It is recommended to wait and see in the hourly cycle [12][14]. Synthetic Rubber - Logic: The main driver is the cost - side butadiene. Although the weekly production of domestic butadiene has reached a new high, the inventory has not increased significantly due to the high operating rate of styrene - butadiene rubber. In the medium - term, the high supply pressure of butadiene will be the main contradiction, and the medium - term short - selling idea remains unchanged. It is recommended to take profit on previous short positions and wait for a high - selling opportunity [17]. - Technical Analysis: The daily - level shows a medium - term downward structure, and the hourly - level shows a short - term downward structure. The upper short - term pressure is at 10500. It is recommended to take profit when geopolitical risks increase and wait for a rebound to re - enter short positions [19]. PX - Logic: There are few contradictions in the polyester industry itself, but after a symposium on the development of the PTA and bottle - chip industries, there are rumors of production cuts in the polyester industry, and the market has increased positions and risen. Attention should be paid to the realization of these expectations [24]. - Technical Analysis: The hourly - level shows a short - term upward structure. After a decline with reduced positions, the upward structure remains unchanged. The lower short - term support is at 6715. It is recommended to try to go long when the support is not broken and a reversal pattern appears [24]. PTA - Logic: Similar to PX, there are few contradictions in the polyester industry itself, but production - cut rumors have led to an increase in positions and prices. Attention should be paid to the realization of these expectations [26]. - Technical Analysis: The hourly - level shows a short - term upward structure. After a decline with reduced positions, the upward structure remains unchanged. The lower short - term support is at 4620. It is recommended to try to go long when the support is not broken and a reversal pattern appears [26]. PP - Logic: After the commissioning of a petrochemical plant in Guangxi, the supply pressure of PP has increased, and the downstream demand recovery is limited. The supply - demand expectation is weak, and attention should be paid to the cost - side crude oil drive [28]. - Technical Analysis: The hourly - level shows a short - term downward structure. After a decline with reduced positions, the upper short - term pressure is at 6530. It is recommended to take profit on short positions when geopolitical risks increase [28]. Methanol - Logic: Currently, the import of methanol is still abundant, and the downward drive from high supply, high import, and high inventory continues. However, due to the high coal price and compressed profit margins, it is not advisable to short. For long - position seekers, although the short - term pressure of high supply and high inventory exists, the domestic supply - demand is relatively healthy, and the medium - term long - buying logic is expected due to the approaching winter gas - restriction in Iran and the unpriced situation in Venezuela. Pay attention to the signal of short - term structure conversion and the occurrence of the two events [33]. - Technical Analysis: The daily - level and short - term show a downward structure. After a small decline with increased positions, the upper short - term pressure is at 2150. It is recommended to take profit on short positions at 2150 or take the initiative to take profit. Wait to go long after the short - term structure reverses above 2150 [33]. PVC - Logic: After the end of centralized maintenance, the operating rate has increased, and the supply remains high. The domestic real - estate demand has collapsed, and the social inventory has reached a historical high. There is no upward drive [36]. - Technical Analysis: The daily - level shows a medium - term downward structure, and the hourly - level shows a short - term downward structure. After reaching a new low with increased positions, the upper short - term pressure has moved down to 4625. It is recommended to hold short positions in the hourly cycle [36]. Ethylene Glycol - Logic: The supply is at a high level, and the supply pressure increases with new capacity coming online. The supply - demand pressure is large under the inventory - build - up pattern, but beware of short - term geopolitical risks in crude oil [38]. - Technical Analysis: The daily - level and hourly - level show a downward structure. After a decline with increased positions, the upper short - term pressure is at 3950. It is recommended to take profit on short positions when geopolitical risks increase [38]. Plastic - Logic: After the commissioning of a petrochemical plant in Guangxi, the supply pressure has increased, and the downstream demand in the peak season is weak. The supply - demand expectation is weak, and beware of short - term geopolitical risks in crude oil [40]. - Technical Analysis: The daily - level shows a medium - term downward structure, and the hourly - level shows a short - term downward structure. After a decline with reduced positions, the upper short - term pressure is at 6850. It is recommended to take profit on short positions when geopolitical risks increase [40]. Soda Ash - Logic: The pattern of high supply and high inventory continues, and the downward drive remains unchanged. There was a rebound today due to rumors of some enterprises' production suspension [45]. - Technical Analysis: The hourly - level shows a downward structure. After a decline with reduced positions, the upper short - term pressure is at 1245. It is recommended to hold short positions cautiously with a stop - profit at 1245 [45]. Caustic Soda - Logic: The pattern of high supply and high inventory continues, and there is no upward drive in supply - demand [46]. - Technical Analysis: The hourly - level shows a downward structure. After intraday fluctuations, the downward structure remains unchanged. The upper short - term pressure is at 2400. It is recommended to wait and see in the hourly cycle [46].