板块观点汇总 伊朗地缘弱化,原油继续领跌 | 品种 | 中期结构 | 短期结构 | 小时周期策略 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 原油 | 偏空 | 偏空 | 空单持有 | | EB | 偏空 | 偏多 | 观望等短期破位 | | PX | 偏空 | 偏多 | 观望等短期破位 | | PTA | 偏空 | 偏多 | 观望等短期破位 | | PP | 偏空 | 切换验证 | 寻反抽结束信号试空 | | 塑料 | 偏空 | 偏多 | 观望等短期破位 | | 甲醇 | 偏空 | 偏多 | 观望等短期破位 | | EG | 偏空 | 偏多 | 观望 | | 橡胶 | 偏空 | 震荡 | 观望 | | 烧碱 | 偏空 | 偏多 | 观望 | | 尿素 | 震荡 | 偏多 | 观望 | (一) 原油: 逻辑:OPEC+加速增产带来的中期过剩预期使中期下跌趋势难改, 短期伊朗高层松开后"新伊核协议"呼之欲出,短期潜地缘利多的大 幅减弱与解除制裁后伊朗原油供应增量成为短期下行驱动。 日度技术追踪:原油日线级别中期下跌结构,小时级别短期下跌 结构。今日增仓回落,延续下跌路径。上方短期压力位参考465 ...

油脂续跌、玉米破位下行 一、农产品板块综述 油脂继续下跌,受到外盘美豆油暴跌拖累,因市场担忧美豆油在 生物燃料需求不及预期,令美豆油重挫,带动国内油脂板块走跌。棕 油产区进入增产季,马棕油4月产量和库存激增,后续月份将逐月增 加,压制棕榈油期价下跌。玉米期价破位下行,玉米深加工和养殖业 将进入淡季,需求或下降,小麦上市,替代压力增大,多头回吐令玉 米期价承压,后市或转入下行趋势。生猪再度重挫,生猪存栏高位, 出栏均重高企,供应增大,气温升高后,肉类需求转弱,且替代增多, 施压猪价下行。 二、品种策略跟踪 (一) 棕榈油:持续下跌 焦点关注:棕榈油主力 2509 合约持续下跌,受到美豆油暴跌的 带动: 1.由于市场对美国可再生燃料义务(RVO)大幅低于此前预期的 担忧骤升,美豆油生物燃料需求可能不及预期,空头情绪升温,导致 美豆油暴跌,带动棕榈油期价持续下挫。且马棕榈油进入增产季,马 来西亚棕榈油总署(MPOB)的月度报告显示马来西亚 4月棕榈油产 量及库存激增,市场预计后期棕榈油产量将逐月上升,利空因素压制 棕櫚油期价下挫。 2.国内棕榈油进口买船量增加且已超过刚需,预期库存从低位回 升,压制棕榈油期价。大连 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core View of the Report The agricultural products sector shows a mixed performance. The oil and fat sectors are experiencing a significant decline, the live pig market has tumbled, and the egg market is also under pressure due to high inventories. On the other hand, the cotton market is fluctuating at a high level, and the sugar market is experiencing a decline and consolidation. The soybean meal market is rising in a volatile manner, and the soybean market is continuing to move sideways after a pullback. The corn market is falling in a volatile manner, the apple market is oscillating at a low level, and the trend remains downward [1]. 3. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Agricultural Products Sector Overview - The entire oil and fat sector has dropped significantly. Affected by the decline in crude oil prices, the market lacks confidence in the demand for US soybean oil in biofuels. The production and inventory of palm oil in producing areas have surged, bringing seasonal supply pressure. Domestic soybean oil is also under pressure from the expected increase in supply due to the rising operating rate of oil mills. The live pig market has tumbled due to high inventories at the breeding end, sufficient supply of standard and fat pigs, and weak downstream demand. The egg market has also declined under the pressure of high inventories [1]. 3.2 Variety Strategy Tracking 3.2.1 Palm Oil - The main palm oil contract 2509 has dropped significantly, giving back most of the previous day's gains. Affected by the decline in crude oil prices, the market is worried that the demand for US soybean oil in biofuels will fall short of expectations, and bullish sentiment has cooled rapidly. The monthly report of the Malaysian Palm Oil Board (MPOB) shows that the production and inventory of palm oil in Malaysia increased sharply in April, suppressing the upward space of Malaysian palm oil prices. The Dalian palm oil main contract 2509 closed with a long negative line, falling below the 20 - day moving average, indicating a weakening trend. The strategy is short - term trading, with support at 8018 and resistance at 8200 [2]. 3.2.2 Soybean Oil - The main soybean oil contract 2509 has dropped significantly, giving back all of the previous day's gains. Affected by the decline in crude oil prices, market sentiment has reversed, causing the price to fall. The high - level decline of crude oil futures prices has led to concerns that the demand for US soybean oil in biofuels will fall short of expectations. In the domestic market, imported soybeans have arrived at ports in a concentrated manner, and the operating rate of oil mills has increased, leading to an expected increase in soybean oil supply. The main soybean oil contract 2509 has reversed and tumbled, breaking below most moving averages, indicating a weakening technical pattern. The strategy is to hold a light short position, with support at 7744 and resistance at 7808 [3]. 3.2.3 Live Pig - The live pig contract 2509 has tumbled, giving back all of the previous day's gains and hitting a new low, opening up downward space. At the breeding end, the inventory of live pigs is at a high level, the supply of suitable - weight standard pigs has increased in May, and the slaughter plan of large - scale pig enterprises has increased month - on - month. In addition, the price difference between standard and fat pigs has narrowed or even inverted, and farms are actively selling large - weight pigs, increasing the supply pressure. On the demand side, after the May Day holiday, the purchase and sale of pork has declined, catering and tourism consumption has cooled down, and residents mainly focus on household consumption. With sufficient substitutes, mainstream slaughterhouses lack an increase in orders, and demand support is insufficient. The Dalian live pig main contract 2509 has reversed and tumbled, with sharp daily fluctuations. The price has broken through the moving average system and the previous fluctuation range, hitting a new low, and the downward space may be opened, indicating a weakening technical pattern. The strategy is to hold a light short position, with support at 13650 and resistance at 13890 [6]. 3.2.4 Cotton - The main cotton contract 2509 has fluctuated narrowly at a high level after a strong upward movement, undergoing technical correction, and the upward trend remains unchanged. After the high - level talks between China and the US on economy and trade, bilateral tariffs have been significantly reduced, exceeding market expectations. Some orders may be restarted during the buffer period, boosting market sentiment. Terminal enterprises in Zhengzhou have successively shipped orders that were suspended from processing or shipping before the release of equal tariffs, alleviating inventory pressure. Coupled with domestic macro - level positives, cotton prices are supported. The main cotton futures contract 2509 has fluctuated narrowly at a high level after a strong upward movement, undergoing technical correction. The price is still fluctuating above the medium - term moving average, and the MACD red column is expanding, indicating a strong technical pattern. The strategy is to hold a light long position, with support at 13275 and resistance at 13500 [7][9]. 3.2.5 Sugar - The main sugar contract 2509 has declined and oscillated, closing with a small negative line with a lower shadow, and the trend is not yet clear. Overseas raw sugar futures prices have fallen from high levels as the market focuses on the future production growth in Brazil. The domestic window for importing sugar outside the quota has opened, increasing the pressure of future sugar arrivals at ports. However, it will take time for the imported sugar to arrive. Currently, the domestic market still relies on domestic sugar supply. The sugar sales rate in April was relatively fast, and with the approaching of the summer consumption peak season, the food and beverage industry has a demand for stocking up, supporting sugar prices. The main sugar contract 2509 has declined and oscillated, with limited decline. The strategy can be short - term trading for now, with support at 5873 and resistance at 5904 [10]. 3.2.6 Soybean Meal - The main soybean meal contract 2509 has oscillated and closed with a positive line, driven by the strength of US soybeans. The domestic spot price of soybean meal has varied. The low operating rate in some areas has supported a small rebound in the soybean meal price. However, imported soybeans have arrived at ports in a concentrated manner, and the overall operating rate of national oil mills has rebounded, with a strong expectation of sufficient soybean meal supply. Currently, the soybean meal price is close to the cost price of oil mills, and the oil mills' prices are relatively firm. The main soybean meal contract 2509 has closed with two consecutive positive lines, and the price has stood above the 5 - day and 10 - day moving averages, indicating a warming technical pattern. The strategy is to close short positions and conduct short - term trading, with support at 2906 and resistance at 2950 [12]. 3.2.7 Soybean - The main soybean contract 2507 has risen and then fallen, closing with a small negative line with an upper shadow, showing an oscillating and continuously sideways movement. There is little remaining soybeans at the grass - roots level, and the supply of soybeans in domestic producing areas is limited. Farmers are busy with spring plowing, and overall trading is light. The purchase and sales pattern in the sales areas is also stable, with little price change. Imported soybeans have arrived at ports in a concentrated manner, and the supply is gradually increasing. Oil mills' demand for domestic soybeans has decreased. The downstream soybean product industry has entered the off - season, and downstream demand is weak. The main soybean contract 2507 has risen and then fallen, encountering resistance in the upward movement, and the price has returned to the short - term sideways range. The strategy is to close short positions and wait for opportunities, with support at 4132 and resistance at 4196 [15]. 3.2.8 Corn - The main corn contract 2507 has oscillated and closed with a negative line, giving back the previous day's rebound, showing a weakening technical pattern and facing further adjustment pressure. The grass - roots grain sales progress is approaching the end, and last week's sales progress remained stable. Corn starch processing enterprises are making losses, and the operating rate has declined. The prices of wheat and corn are close, and during the upcoming concentrated listing period of wheat, the substitution pressure may increase. After the corn price reached a high level, downstream feed enterprises have low acceptance and limited purchases. The Dalian main corn contract 2507 has declined, testing the support of the 20 - day moving average again, and the technical pattern shows weakening pressure. The strategy can be short - term trading for now, with support at 2326 and resistance at 2356 [16][18]. 3.2.9 Egg - The main egg contract 2506 has dropped significantly, approaching the previous low, and the downward space may be opened. The inventory of laying hens is at a high level, with 1.329 billion in April, a month - on - month increase of 11 million. The number of newly - laid hens has increased, and there is an expectation of a continued increase in inventory. The supply of eggs is sufficient. The terminal market has limited acceptance of high - priced eggs, the sales pace has slowed down, and inventory digestion is slow. Egg prices are weakening steadily. With the rising temperature, eggs are not easy to store, and the trading link may accelerate the shipment. The demand side is seasonally weakening, and the pattern of strong supply and weak demand continues. The main egg contract 2506 has dropped significantly, falling far from the moving average, and may open the downward space, showing a weak technical pattern. The strategy is to continue to short, with support at 2852 and resistance at 2900 [19]. 3.2.10 Apple - The main apple contract 2510 has oscillated narrowly at a low level, closing with a small positive line with an upper shadow, and the downward trend remains unchanged. In the apple - producing areas, farmers are busy with farm work, the cold - storage packaging and shipping have decreased, the sales pace is average, and the market in the producing areas is stable. Currently, competing melons and fruits are gradually coming to the market, increasing alternative consumption and impacting the demand for apples, suppressing the apple price. The main apple contract 2510 has oscillated at a low level, and the price is fluctuating near the previous low. The MACD green column continues to expand, showing a weak technical pattern. The strategy is to hold a light short position, with support at 7688 and resistance at 7770 [21].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The agricultural product sector shows mixed trends. Palm oil and soybean oil have risen significantly, but their upside may be limited due to increased supply. Cotton has strengthened due to the significant reduction in Sino - US bilateral tariffs, and the sugar has also risen strongly. Meanwhile, some products like apples are in a continuous decline [1][2][3][6][9][22]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs 3.1 Agricultural Product Sector Overview - Palm oil and soybean oil have risen sharply, driven by the surge in CBOT soybean oil. However, the supply of domestic palm oil and soybean oil is increasing, which may limit their upside. Cotton has risen strongly, supported by the reduction in Sino - US bilateral tariffs, and the orders of textile enterprises may increase in the future [1]. 3.2 Variety Strategy Tracking 3.2.1 Palm Oil - The palm oil main contract 2509 has risen significantly, driven by the sharp increase in soybean oil. The proposed extension of the US 45Z clean fuel tax credit policy has boosted CBOT soybean oil. But the sharp increase in Malaysian palm oil production and inventory in April may limit its upside. Technically, it has turned stronger. The strategy is to close short positions and conduct short - term trading, with support at 8100 and resistance at 8210 [2]. 3.2.2 Soybean Oil - The soybean oil main contract 2509 has risen strongly, driven by the sharp increase in external soybean oil. The proposed extension of the US 45Z clean fuel tax credit policy has boosted CBOT soybean oil. Although the tight supply pattern of domestic soybean oil will gradually ease, the follow - up increase may be limited. Technically, it has turned stronger. The strategy is to close short positions and conduct short - term trading, with support at 7812 and resistance at 8000 [3]. 3.2.3 Cotton - The cotton main contract 2509 has risen strongly, basically recovering the previous day's decline. The significant reduction in Sino - US bilateral tariffs has boosted the market sentiment. Although the textile industry is in the off - season, the short - term strategy is to hold a small number of long positions, with support at 13260 and resistance at 13600 [6]. 3.2.4 Sugar - The sugar main contract 2509 has risen strongly, driven by the sharp increase in external raw sugar futures prices. The decline in Brazilian sugar production and the strong domestic sugar sales and production data have provided upward momentum. Technically, it has turned stronger. The strategy is to hold a small number of short - term long positions, with support at 5885 and resistance at 5940 [9]. 3.2.5 Soybean Meal - The soybean meal main contract 2509 has oscillated and closed up, driven by the strength of US soybeans. However, the large - scale arrival of imported soybeans in China in May and the increase in supply may limit its upside. The strategy is to observe the resistance of the 10 - day moving average. If it is broken, close short positions; otherwise, continue to hold them, with support at 2865 and resistance at 2923 [10][12]. 3.2.6 Soybean No. 1 - The soybean No. 1 main contract 2507 has oscillated and closed up, showing a sideways pattern. The limited supply of domestic soybeans, the arrival of imported soybeans, and the weak downstream demand have affected the price. The strategy is to hold short positions, with support at 4127 and resistance at 4199 [13]. 3.2.7 Corn - The corn main contract 2507 has rebounded and closed up after two days of adjustment. The Sino - US tariff reduction has a limited impact on corn, and the insufficient supply of corn still supports the price. The strategy is short - term trading, with support at 2338 and resistance at 2363 [15]. 3.2.8 Live Pigs - The live pig main contract 2509 has risen significantly, affected by the slowdown in the slaughter rhythm of the supply side. However, the high inventory of large pigs and the weak demand limit the upside. Technically, it has turned stronger. The strategy is to close short positions and conduct short - term trading, with support at 13800 and resistance at 14095 [18]. 3.2.9 Eggs - The egg main contract 2506 has first declined and then risen, with narrow - range oscillations. The slowdown in terminal replenishment and the high egg - laying hen inventory limit the upside. The strategy is to hold short positions, with support at 2900 and resistance at 2924 [19][21]. 3.2.10 Apples - The apple main contract 2510 has continued to decline. The high price in the producing area, the slowdown in sales, and the increase in substitute consumption have suppressed the price. The strategy is to hold a small number of short positions, with support at 7650 and resistance at 7770 [22].

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content Core Viewpoints of the Report - After the release of the China-US negotiation joint statement, short - term bullish factors have landed, and the market is still in an emotional state. Although 50% of the tariffs on China are still high, it has restarted a new trade situation. Most risk assets have basically returned to the level before April 2, 2025. Recently, there have been supply - side disturbances in many varieties, and bulls are likely to push up prices. After the emotional release, the fundamental logic should be re - examined [1]. - In the medium term, the rebound of crude oil is much weaker than other risk assets, mainly due to the increasing expectation of supply surplus under the continuous acceleration of OPEC+ production increase. Short - term non - supply - demand logics are regarded as phased rises rather than reversals. Pay attention to short - selling opportunities near the previous high (WTI main contract at $64). For oil - chemical varieties, wait for the right - side short - selling opportunities after short - term breakouts [1]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Crude Oil - **Technical Analysis**: On the daily level, it has a medium - term downward structure, and on the hourly level, a short - term upward structure. It is testing the medium - term pressure level corresponding to $63 of WTI today. If it fails to break through the medium - term pressure, it will retest the support at 468 [2]. - **Strategy**: In the hourly cycle, after the previous short - position index, look for a new position - increasing and reverse - wrapping pattern, or wait for the price to break below the low on May 13 and then look for a right - side rebound short - selling opportunity. If the short - position is stopped out, wait for a new position - increasing and reverse - wrapping signal [2][3]. Styrene (EB) - **Technical Analysis**: On the hourly level, it has a short - term upward structure. It rose with a reduction in positions today, and the short - term trading volume is insufficient, so the upside space is limited. The short - term support is the low on May 13 [9]. - **Strategy**: Still on the sidelines [3][9]. PX - **Technical Analysis**: On the hourly level, it has a short - term upward structure. Some funds left the market with a reduction in positions at the end of the session today. The short - term support refers to the low on May 13 [10]. - **Strategy**: Wait for the price to break the support and then look for short - selling opportunities on rallies [3][10]. PTA - **Technical Analysis**: On the hourly level, it has a short - term upward structure. It rose with an increase in positions today. The short - term support refers to the low on May 13 [16]. - **Strategy**: Wait for the price to break the support and then look for short - selling opportunities on rallies. Currently on the sidelines [3][16]. PP - **Technical Analysis**: On the hourly level, it has a short - term upward structure. It rose with a reduction in positions today. The new short - term support is at 7130 [18]. - **Strategy**: Temporarily on the sidelines, wait for short - term breakouts [3][18]. Urea - **Technical Analysis**: On the hourly level, it has a short - term upward structure. It oscillated within the day today, retested the short - term support at the low on May 8, but there was no trading volume to match the pattern [19][22]. - **Strategy**: Temporarily on the sidelines [3][22]. Methanol - **Technical Analysis**: On the hourly level, it has a short - term upward structure. After rising with an increase in positions today, it showed a short - term trend reversal, and the short - term slope is too large. The support is temporarily at 2330 [23]. - **Strategy**: On the sidelines in the hourly cycle [3][23]. Rubber - **Technical Analysis**: On the daily level, it has a medium - term downward structure, and on the hourly level, a short - term oscillating structure. It rose with an increase in positions today and reached the upper edge of the oscillation range again. The upper pressure still refers to the high on April 8. It is currently in a narrow - range oscillation for oversold repair [26]. - **Strategy**: Temporarily on the sidelines [3][26]. Caustic Soda - **Technical Analysis**: On the daily level, it has a medium - term downward structure, and on the hourly level, a short - term upward structure. After oscillating within the day today, there was a large - scale reduction in positions and an upward movement at the end of the session, indicating that some short - sellers left the market [27]. - **Strategy**: Mainly on the sidelines [3][27]. Ethylene Glycol (EG) - **Technical Analysis**: On the daily level, it has a medium - term downward structure, and on the hourly level, a short - term upward structure. It rose with an increase in positions today. The short - term support is at 43150 [29]. - **Strategy**: On the sidelines due to the divergence between medium - and short - term trends [3][29]. Plastic - **Technical Analysis**: On the daily level, it has a medium - term downward structure, and on the hourly level, a short - term upward structure. It is regarded as a continued rebound today. The short - term support is at 7100 [30]. - **Strategy**: In the hourly cycle, on the sidelines [30]

Report Summary 1. Investment Rating No investment rating for the industry is provided in the report. 2. Core View - After the release of the China - US negotiation joint statement, short - term bullish factors have materialized, and the market is still in an emotional state. The new US tariffs on China have been reduced from 165% to 50%, which, although still high, restarts trade and leaves room for future negotiations. After the short - term bullish factors are exhausted, the market will return to fundamental logic after the emotional release [1]. - In the medium term, the rebound of crude oil is much weaker than other risk assets due to the increasing supply surplus expectation under OPEC+ continuous accelerated production. Unless there is an Iranian geopolitical risk, the current stage of crude oil rally is expected to end. Attention should be paid to short - selling opportunities at high levels [2]. 3. Summary by Variety (1) Crude Oil - Technical analysis: Daily - level shows a medium - term downward structure, and hourly - level shows a short - term upward structure. It opened high and closed low today, testing the medium - term pressure level of WTI $63. If it fails to break through, it will test the support at 460. - Strategy: Hold short positions (non - right - hand side). Wait for the anti - package pattern as a signal to short again, with the stop - loss referring to the hourly high at 22:00 last night [4][5]. (2) Styrene (EB) - Technical analysis: Hourly - level shows a short - term upward structure. It had a limit - up with increased positions today, and the short - term support is moved up to today's low. - Strategy: Observe [9]. (3) PX - Technical analysis: Hourly - level shows a short - term upward structure. It oscillated during the day and increased positions in the late session, with the short - term support moved up to today's low. - Strategy: Wait for the price to break the support and then look for short - selling opportunities at high levels [10]. (4) PTA - Technical analysis: Hourly - level shows a short - term upward structure. It oscillated during the day and increased positions in the late session, with the short - term support moved up to today's low. - Strategy: Wait for the price to break the support and then look for short - selling opportunities at high levels [15]. (5) PP - Technical analysis: Hourly - level shows a short - term upward structure. It rebounded with reduced positions today, broke through the pressure/stop - profit level, and is considered to have a short - term trend reversal. The new short - term support refers to today's low. - Strategy: Take profit on the remaining short positions and then observe [17]. (6) Urea - Technical analysis: Hourly - level shows a short - term upward structure. It oscillated today, and the short - term support refers to the low on May 8th. - Strategy: Look for low - buying opportunities based on the reversal pattern above the short - term support [18][21]. (7) Methanol - Technical analysis: Hourly - level shows an oscillating structure. It oscillated today and remained below the upper limit of the previous range. - Strategy: Observe mainly on the hourly cycle [22]. (8) Rubber - Technical analysis: Daily - level shows a medium - term downward structure, and hourly - level shows a short - term oscillating structure. It opened high and closed low today, falling back after reaching the upper limit of the oscillating range. The upper pressure still refers to the high on April 8th. - Strategy: The general idea is to short at high levels, but observe mainly on the hourly cycle under the current oscillating structure [26]. (9) Caustic Soda - Technical analysis: Daily - level shows a medium - term downward structure, and hourly - level shows a short - term upward structure. It increased positions and rose today, with opportunities for long positions based on the reversal pattern, but the strategy has not prompted recently. - Strategy: Observe mainly [27]. (10) Ethylene Glycol (EG) - Technical analysis: Daily - level shows a medium - term downward structure, and hourly - level shows a short - term upward structure. It had an oscillating market today, and the short - term support temporarily refers to the 4200 level. - Strategy: Observe due to the divergence between medium - term and short - term trends [31]. (11) Plastic - Technical analysis: Daily - level shows a medium - term downward structure, and hourly - level shows a short - term upward structure. It oscillated during the day and rose in the late session with reduced positions, and the sustainability is questionable. The short - term support is moved up to today's low. - Strategy: Observe on the hourly cycle [32][34].

二、品种策略跟踪 (一) 棉花: 晨荡续涨 焦点关注:棉花主力 2509 合约冲高回落,但仍获得一定涨幅, 延续上升趋势,中美经贸高层会谈成果超预期继续给市场利多影响, 支撑棉花走高: 1. 中美经贸高层会谈取得实质性进展,5月12日双方发表联合 声明,大幅降低双边关税水平,提振市场偏多情绪。加之国内宏观利 好,且国内棉花商业库存下降,进口棉花维持低位,支撑棉价。 油脂回落、棉花续升 一、农产品板块综述 USDA 5 月供需报告调降 2025/26 年度美国大豆产量和期末库存, 对美豆期价偏多影响,但是大连豆粕并未跟随外盘走高,因进口大豆 集中到港,进口大豆库存飙升,油厂开机率逐步回升,豆粕供应增大, 豆粕承压下跌,后市将继续展开下行空间。棕榈油下挫,因 MPOB 棕榈油 5月供需报告显示马棕油产量和库存激增,远超市场预期,棕 榈油期价承压下挫,后续料将扩大下行空间。棉花冲高回落,但仍续 升,中美经贸高层会谈后的联合声明大幅调降双边关税,提振市场情 绪,市场憧憬纺织品出口增长,加之棉花商业库存下降,支持棉花期 价上涨。 2.目前纺织品行业淡季到来,纺企新增订单量萎缩,成品库存增 加,纺企开机稳中有降,纺企对棉 ...

一、农产品板块综述 棉花暴涨，中美经贸高层会谈取得实质性进展，后续或有利于纺 织品出口，同时国内宏观利好，加之棉花库存下降，皆支撑棉花期价 大幅走高，期价转入上行趋势。白糖劲升，受外盘上涨提振，国内白 糖产销两旺，4 月销糖率创 25 年来同期最高，加之消费旺季来临， 支撑糖价反抽，走势或转强。生猪下挫，存栏高位，大猪出栏增多， 供应压力增大，而猪肉需求平淡，加之替代品充足，生猪期价承压走 低，后市有望持续下行趋势。 二、品种策略跟踪 （一）棉花：暴涨 焦点关注：棉花主力 2509 合约在上周稳健反弹的基础上，周一 暴涨，期价受到中美经贸高层会谈取得实质性进展的利好提振： 1. 中美经贸高层会谈坦诚、深入、具有建设性，达成重要共识， 并取得实质性进展，利多提振棉花大幅上涨，若中美达成关税协议， 或有助于纺织品出口增加。加之国内宏观利好，央行降准降息，皆提 振市场情绪。另外进口棉花维持低位，国内港口库存下降至 6 个月低 点，亦对期价有支撑。 棉花暴涨、白糖劲升 2.目前纺织品行业淡季到来，纺企新增订单量萎缩，成品库存增 加，纺企开机稳中有降，纺企对棉花需求以刚需为主，关注后续纺企 订单变化以及开工情况。棉花期 ...

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Core Viewpoints - After the Sino-US economic and trade negotiation, the short - term upward drive in sentiment may come to an end. The current 50% tariff on China is still relatively high, and the bullish trading has been quite sufficient. The short - term bullish factors for crude oil are exhausted, and without the Iranian geopolitical risk, the stage - rise of crude oil is expected to end. For oil - chemical products, maintain a medium - term bearish view and wait for short - selling opportunities after short - term breakouts [1][2][3] Summary by Directory Crude Oil - Medium - term structure is bearish, short - term structure is bullish. The daily - level has a medium - term downward structure, and the hourly - level has a short - term upward structure. Today, it rose with a reduction in positions, and the volume did not match, so it is not considered a reversal. Look for reversal patterns that do not exceed the medium - term pressure level of 500 to try secondary entry of medium - term short positions [4][5] Benzene Ethylene (EB) - Medium - term structure is bearish, short - term structure is bullish. The hourly - level has a short - term downward structure. Today, it increased positions and had a long - Yang line, breaking through the short - term pressure on April 29. The pre - holiday short positions should be stopped for profit and then wait and see [5][6] PX - Medium - term structure is bearish, short - term structure is bullish. The hourly - level has a short - term upward structure. Today, it increased positions and rose. Pay attention to the low point on the night of May 9 as the short - term support. Wait for the breakdown of the support and then look for short - selling opportunities on rallies [5][10] PTA - Medium - term structure is bearish, short - term structure is bullish. The hourly - level has a short - term upward structure. Today, it increased positions and rose. Pay attention to the low point on the night of May 9 as the short - term support. Wait for the breakdown of the support and then look for short - selling opportunities on rallies [5][13] PP - Medium - term structure is bearish, short - term structure is bearish. The hourly - level has a short - term downward structure. Today's decline in positions and rebound is not considered a trend reversal. It is relatively weaker than PX and PTA. The remaining pre - holiday short positions can still be held, and the stop - profit is still referenced at the 7060 level [5][17] Urea - Medium - term structure is oscillating, short - term structure is bullish. The hourly - level has a short - term upward structure. Technically, it oscillated within the day today, and the short - term support below is referenced at the low point on May 8. Look for opportunities to go long on dips without breaking the support [5][18] Methanol - Medium - term structure is bearish, short - term structure is oscillating. The hourly - level has a downward structure. Today, it declined in positions and rose above the short - term pressure level of 2250, and the short - term trend is considered reversed. Stop the loss of short positions as planned and then wait and see [5][21] Rubber - Medium - term structure is bearish, short - term structure is oscillating. The daily - level has a medium - term downward structure, and the hourly - level has a short - term oscillating structure. Today, it increased positions and rose but did not break through the upper edge of the oscillating range. The upper pressure is still referenced at the high point on April 8. In the near term, it is doing an oversold repair through narrow - range oscillation by trading time for space. The general strategy is to short on rallies, but there is no short - term opportunity [5][22][25] Caustic Soda - Medium - term structure is bearish, short - term structure is bullish. The daily - level has a medium - term downward structure, and the hourly - level has a short - term upward structure. Today, it increased positions and rose, and there was an opportunity to enter long positions in the form of a reversal pattern within the day, but the strategy has not prompted recently, so still mainly wait and see [5][27] Ethylene Glycol (EG) - Medium - term structure is bearish, short - term structure is bullish. The daily - level has a medium - term downward structure, and the hourly - level has a short - term upward structure. Today, it increased positions and rose above the short - term pressure level of 4250, and the short - term trend is considered reversed. Stop the profit and loss of previous short positions as planned and then wait and see [5][31] Plastic - Medium - term structure is bearish, short - term structure is bullish. The daily - level has a medium - term downward structure, and the hourly - level's short - term downward structure has ended. Today, it declined in positions and rose above the high - point pressure level on April 30, and the short - term decline may end. Stop the profit of short positions as planned and then wait and see [5][32]

Overall Summary of the Agricultural Products Sector - Cotton breaks through and rises, but weak downstream demand may limit the rebound space. Soybean meal drops significantly, and the supply is expected to increase. Palm oil continues to be weak with an expected increase in supply. Corn runs at a high level supported by multiple factors [1]. Variety Strategy Tracking Cotton - The main 2509 contract of cotton shows a third consecutive positive trend, breaking through and strengthening technically. Factors such as the upcoming Sino - US high - level meeting on tariffs, domestic macro - favorable policies, low imported cotton volume, and decreased port inventory support the rebound. However, weak downstream demand after the consumption peak season may resist the rebound. The strategy is to hold a light long position, with support at 12875 and resistance at 13000 [1][2]. Soybean Meal - The main 2509 contract of soybean meal first rises then falls sharply, continuing the downward trend. The increasing national oil mill压榨量 strengthens the expectation of loose supply, pressuring the futures price. The strategy is to hold a light short position, with support at 2880 and resistance at 2914 [3]. Palm Oil - The main 2509 contract of palm oil first rises then falls, with a continuous decline. The expected increase in production and inventory in Malaysia and the increase in China's procurement volume suppress the price. The technical situation remains weak. The strategy is to hold a light short position, with support at 7812 and resistance at 7944 [5]. Sugar - The main 2509 contract of sugar rebounds, boosted by short - covering. The strong production and sales data in the domestic sugar market provide upward momentum. However, the technical weakness has not been reversed. The strategy is to hold short positions and observe whether it can break through the 5 - day moving average resistance, with support at 5808 and resistance at 5859 [8]. Soybean No.1 - The main 2507 contract of soybean No.1 continues to decline. The stable price of inland soybeans, light market trading, increasing imported soybean supply, and weak downstream demand suppress the price. The strategy is to lightly short - sell, with support at 4138 and resistance at 4188 [9][11]. Soybean Oil - The main 2509 contract of soybean oil rises then falls, with a volatile market. The improvement of soybean supply and the increase in oil mill operating rate will lead to an increase in supply and inventory, limiting the upward space. The strategy is short - term trading, with support at 7752 and resistance at 7806 [12]. Corn - The main 2507 contract of corn oscillates and closes positively, running at a high level. Factors such as the exhaustion of grassroots surplus grain, strong willingness of traders to hold and support prices, the linkage between wheat and corn prices, and the intention of downstream enterprises to replenish inventory support the price. The strategy is to hold a light long position, with support at 2370 and resistance at 2387 [14]. Live Pigs - The 2509 contract of live pigs first declines then rises, with a volatile trend and a downward trend remaining. High inventory in the breeding end, increased planned slaughter volume in May, and weak demand after the May Day holiday suppress the price. The strategy is to lightly short - sell at high prices, with support at 13820 and resistance at 14000 [17]. Eggs - The main 2506 contract of eggs first rises then falls, with a continuous downward trend. High egg - laying hen inventory, slow elimination of old hens, and weak demand after the May Day holiday lead to sufficient supply and slow inventory digestion. The strategy is to hold a light short position, with support at 2875 and resistance at 2900 [20]. Apples - The main 2510 contract of apples rebounds slightly but remains weak. The slowdown in post - holiday sales, high - level long - liquidation on the futures market, and technical weakness continue. The strategy is to hold short positions with a stop - loss set, with support at 7765 and resistance at 7864 [21][23].