Report Summary 1. Investment Rating No investment rating for the industry is provided in the report. 2. Core View The report analyzes the trends of various agricultural products. Palm oil is under pressure due to increased supply and weak demand, while sugar is rising supported by strong sales and reduced imports. Pork prices are increasing as the May Day holiday approaches, and soybean meal is rising but its upside is limited by upcoming imports. Other products such as eggs, cotton, and corn also show different trends based on their respective supply - demand fundamentals [1]. 3. Summary by Variety (1) Palm Oil - Focus: The main 2509 contract of palm oil has broken down, affected by seasonal production increase in the origin and improved domestic supply with weak demand [2][3]. - Production: In April 2025, the first half - month palm oil production in Malaysia increased by 3.97% month - on - month [3]. - Import: In March, the import volume was 168,244 tons, a month - on - month increase of 76.42% [3]. - Strategy: The support level is 8000, and the resistance level is 8130 [3]. (2) Soybean Oil - Focus: The main 2509 contract of soybean oil first declined and then rose, with a volatile market. Tight current supply supports the price, but upcoming imports may limit the upside [4]. - Strategy: The support level is 7674, and the resistance level is 7766 [4]. (3) Sugar - Focus: The main 2509 contract of sugar continued to rise strongly. Domestic sales are good, and imports have decreased significantly [6]. - Import: In the first quarter of this year, the import volume was 148,352 tons, a year - on - year decrease of 87.6% [6]. - Strategy: Go long with a light position. The support level is 5963, and the resistance level is 6050 [6]. (4) Soybean Meal - Focus: The main 2509 contract of soybean meal closed up with a volatile trend. Current supply tightness boosts the price, but upcoming imports will limit the increase [8]. - Basis: Last weekend, the basis of soybean meal in North China and Shandong regions soared, and the near - month basis in the north exceeded 750 [8]. - Strategy: Short - term trading. The support level is 3008, and the resistance level is 3070 [8]. (5) Eggs - Focus: The main 2506 contract of eggs declined with a volatile trend. Although the sales have improved recently, the high inventory of laying hens limits the upside [10]. - Strategy: If the price breaks below the 10 - day moving average, go short. The support level is 3021, and the resistance level is 3085 [10]. (6) Cotton - Focus: The main 2509 contract of cotton rebounded with a volatile trend. The market is worried about tariffs, and new orders are weakening. The new cotton planting area in Xinjiang is expected to increase [13]. - Strategy: Close short positions and conduct short - term trading. The support level is 12880, and the resistance level is 12960 [13]. (7) Corn - Focus: The main 2507 contract of corn rebounded significantly, driven by short - covering. The supply is limited, and imports have decreased sharply [14][16]. - Import: In March, the import volume was 81,003 tons, a year - on - year decrease of 95.12%, the lowest level in the same period in seven years [16]. - Strategy: Short - term trading. The support level is 2280, and the resistance level is 2307 [16]. (8) Pork - Focus: The 2509 contract of pork rose strongly. As the May Day holiday approaches, slaughterhouses are stocking up, and the supply is relatively tight [17]. - Strategy: Go long with a light position on dips. The support level is 14385, and the resistance level is 14600 [17]. (9) Apples - Focus: The main 2510 contract of apples rebounded strongly. The inventory is low, and the pre - holiday stocking is active [19]. - Strategy: Go long on dips. The support level is 7700, and the resistance level is 7957 [19]. (10) Soybean No.1 - Focus: The main 2507 contract of soybean No.1 rebounded with a volatile trend, boosted by the rise of related soybean products and the resumption of purchases by CGS [21]. - Strategy: Close short positions and conduct short - term trading. The support level is 4100, and the resistance level is 4175 [21].

天富期货有限公司 期货投资咨询业务许可 证监许可[2011]1450 号 本报告完成时间为 2025 年 4 月 18 日 18:00 来源：公开信息、同花顺 iFinD、东方财富 Choice 及钢联数据 市场有风险 投资需谨慎 观点和信息仅供参考之用 不构成任何人的投资建议 务必阅读文章末尾免责声明 作者：金海东 从业资格号：F03088653 交易咨询从业资格号：Z0016875 原油短期结构转多，但减仓之下持续性存疑 宏观方面，鲍威尔放鹰，在关税带来的通胀预期下不准备提前降 息，仍利空风险资产。中美方面，市场消息多空交织互有矛盾，目前 未见缓和，不确定性仍然较大。 围绕伊朗的中东地缘方面，伊朗与美国在阿曼第一轮会谈结束， 周末将进行第二轮会谈。 如果谈判结果较差，未来地缘影响加大的 时间节点在 5 月初（特朗普给伊朗信件并提出的两个月内达成新核协 议的最后期限）。 板块综述 原油隔夜再度反弹小周期转多，思路转为等破位空，能化表现弱 于原油，今日未随原油短期转动，单边目前仍是偏空思路。 （一）原油： 摘要： 原油隔夜再次反弹后，技术上的结构，短期转多，小时周期由此 前的震荡修复转向反弹修复，但量能角度看 ...

一、农产品板块综述 油脂震荡回落，反弹受限，棕榈油产地进入增产季，供应增加预 期压制棕榈油期价震荡走低，后市有续跌压力。豆油亦受到供应增加 压力，进口大豆大量到港，油厂开机率将回升，豆油供应亦将增加， 压制豆油行情回落。苹果逆转大跌，现货市场走货顺畅，客商积极拿 货，支撑苹果价格，但是苹果期价在涨到高位后受到多头回吐压力， 期价逆转大跌，预计后市跌幅受限，或现高位震荡特征。白糖震荡上 行，白糖销糖率较高，库存拐点或来临，且进口糖和替代品下降，糖 价获得支撑而走高。 二、品种策略跟踪 天富期货有限公司 期货投资咨询业务许可 证监许字[2011]1450 号 本报告完成时间为 2025 年 4 月 18 日 18:00 来源：公开信息、同花顺 iFinD、东方财富 Choice 及钢联数据 市场有风险 投资需谨慎 观点和信息仅供参考之用 不构成任何人的投资建议 务必阅读文章末尾免责声明 作者：刘幸华从业证号：F03088692 交易咨询证号：Z0016646 油脂回落，苹果逆转下行 2.国内棕榈油受到成本端下滑拖累，棕榈油现货价格集体回落， 由于近期棕榈油产地报价重心明显下移，进口利润得到修复，远月买 船增加。大 ...

天富期货有限公司 期货投资咨询业务许可 证监许字|2011|1450 号 本报告完成时间为 2025 年 4 月 17 日 18:00 来源：公开信息、同花顺 iFinD、东方财富 Choice 及钢联数据 市场有风险 投资需谨慎 观点和信息仅供参考之用 不构成任何人的投资建议 务必阅读文章未尾免责声明 作者：刘幸华从业证号：F03088692 交易咨询证号：Z0016646 油脂、白糖反抽，苹果强势 一、农产品板块综述 油脂集体飘红，受到国际原油价格反弹的提振，马来西亚 4 月上 半月棕榈油出口环比增长给棕油期价提供支撑。但是由于增产季来临， 棕榈油回升空间预计有限。白糖反抽上扬，国内白糖销糖率较快，需 求较佳，库存拐点即将来临，加之进口白糖和替代品下降，支撑白糖 反弹回升。苹果强势上涨，五一备货火热，产区交易顺畅，苹果库存 偏低，支撑苹果价格走高。豆粕偏弱震荡，进口大豆到港增加, 油厂 开机率将回升，豆粕供应亦将增长，后市豆粕预计偏弱运行。 二、品种策略跟踪 (一) 棕榈油： 反抽上扬 焦点关注：棕榈油主力 2509 合约反抽上扬，受原油反弹提振： 1.国际油价反弹,油脂集体飘红。棕榈油反抽。高频数据显示 ...

天富期货有限公司 期货投资咨询业务许可 证监许可[2011]1450 号 原油的横盘震荡修复显然更弱。继续关注宏观事件与情绪,技术修复 作者： 金海东 人亚资格号： F03088653 交易咨询从业资格号： Z0016875 增仓下跌，原油或结束震荡修复 摘要: 原油目前基本面、宏观、地缘三大驱动仍是向下，暂未看到驱动 逆转。上周四特朗普暂缓关税（除中国）后，风险资产集体修复，但 本报告完成时间为 2025 年 4 月 16 日 18:00 来源： 公开信息、同花顺 iFinD、东方财富 Choice 及钢联数据 市场有风险 投资需谨慎 观点和信息仅供参考之用 不构成任何人的投资建议 务必阅读文章末尾免责声明 后仍偏向与重回下跌结构。 基本面供需中，OPEC+的增产与关税带来的需求下降对原油形 成双重打击，除非能看到些如伊朗地缘影响供应的事件出现，否则基 本面过剩的大背景难以扭转。 宏观情绪方面, 昨夜 VIX 指数有所回落, 美股与美债有所反弹, 但由于流动性风险的非线性发展速度，目前风险仍未解除。 中美贸易对抗方面,周末美国海关对半导体的豁免更多是执行部 门的落实，昨日美国对半导体/医药发起 232 调查 ...

天富期货有限公司 期货投资咨询业务许可 证监许字|2011|1450 号 本报告完成时间为 2025 年 4 月 16 日 18:00 来源：公开信息、同花顺 iFinD、东方财富 Choice 及钢联数据 市场有风险 投资需谨慎 观点和信息仅供参考之用 不构成任何人的投资建议 务必阅读文章未尾免责声明 作者：刘幸华从业证号：F03088692 交易咨询证号：Z0016646 豆粕大跌、棕榈油续跌 一、农产品板块综述 豆粕破位大跌，进口大豆大量到港，南美大豆季节性供应压力凸 显，油厂压榨量将提升，豆粕供应增加，豆粕期价承压下挫。生猪 9 月合约期价从高位大幅回落，饲料品种豆粕大跌令成本支撑削弱，多 头获利回吐，加之生猪存栏高位增长，压制生猪期价大幅下跌。鸡蛋 劲升，受库存下降以及五一备货情绪带动，但蛋鸡存栏高位，供应充 足,鸡蛋上升空间或受限。棕榈油继续下跌，产地增产季来临，库存 回升，国内进口棕榈油成本下滑，棕榈油期价震荡下行，有望继续扩 大下行空间。 二、品种策略跟踪 (一) 豆粕： 破位大跌 焦点关注：豆粕主力合约 2509 合约破位大跌，转入跌势: 1. 巴西大豆季节性压力凸显,国家粮油信息中心消息显 ...