Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core View of the Report The agricultural product sector shows a mixed performance. Pig and corn prices are in a significant downward trend, while palm oil prices are expected to oscillate at a high level. Other products such as eggs, soybean meal, and others also have their own market characteristics and trends, with different influencing factors and corresponding trading strategies [1]. Summary by Related Catalogs 1. Agricultural Product Sector Overview - Pig prices continue to drop to new lows due to high supply pressure from active slaughter by farmers and a post - holiday decline in consumption. Corn prices also fall significantly because of the concentrated listing of new corn. Palm oil prices adjust downward, but the decline is limited, and it may show a high - level oscillation in the future [1]. 2. Variety Strategy Tracking (1) Pig - Focus: The main 2511 contract of pigs continues to fall, hitting a new low. - Reasons: Farmers actively slaughter pigs, leading to a concentrated release of supply pressure. After the holiday, consumption declines, and there are sufficient meat substitutes, which restricts pig prices. - Technical analysis: The contract price is below the moving average system, and the MACD green column expands significantly. - Strategy: Continue to short - sell. Support is at 11100, and resistance is at 11300 [2][5]. (2) Corn - Focus: The main 2511 contract of corn continues to fall to a 10 - month low. - Reasons: The new corn harvest is gradually realized, and the concentrated listing increases supply pressure. - Technical analysis: The contract price is below the moving average system, and the MACD green column expands. - Strategy: Hold a small - position short position. Support is at 2080, and resistance is at 2100 [4]. (3) Palm Oil - Focus: The main 2601 contract of palm oil oscillates downward. - Reasons: The MPOB October report is bearish, and crude oil prices fall. However, the export of Malaysian palm oil remains strong, and the approaching seasonal production reduction limits the decline. - Technical analysis: The contract price breaks below the 40 - day moving average. - Strategy: Close long positions and conduct short - term trading. Support is at 9282, and resistance is at 9400 [7]. (4) Eggs - Focus: The main 2511 contract of eggs first declines and then rises, reducing the decline. - Reasons: The egg - laying hen inventory is at a historical high, and post - holiday demand drops, resulting in an increase in inventory. - Technical analysis: The contract price is far below the moving average, and the MACD green column expands after a death cross. - Strategy: Continue to short - sell. Support is at 2770, and resistance is at 2850 [10]. (5) Soybean Meal - Focus: The main 2601 contract of soybean meal first rises and then falls, with a narrow - range oscillation. - Reasons: Sino - US economic and trade relations are tense, but the short - term supply of imported soybeans is abundant. - Technical analysis: The contract forms a doji with a long upper shadow, and the MACD green column continues. - Strategy: Hold a small - position short position. Support is at 2910, and resistance is at 2945 [11][13]. (6) Soybean Oil - Focus: The main 2601 contract of soybean oil oscillates downward. - Reasons: The supply of imported soybeans is abundant, and the high - level oil mill crushing increases soybean oil supply. - Technical analysis: The contract price retraces the short - term moving average. - Strategy: Conduct short - term trading. Support is at 8238, and resistance is at 8360 [14][19]. (7) Cotton - Focus: The main 2601 contract of cotton continues to oscillate at a low level. - Reasons: The new cotton harvest in Xinjiang is expected to increase, and the demand season is not as expected. - Technical analysis: The contract rebounds slightly, and the MACD green column shrinks. - Strategy: Conduct short - term trading. Support is at 13200, and resistance is at 13400 [18]. (8) Apples - Focus: The main 2601 contract of apples adjusts at a high level. - Reasons: Apple picking in some areas is affected, and the market supply is not large. - Technical analysis: The contract price is above the moving average system, and the MACD red column continues. - Strategy: Hold a small - position long position. Support is at 8623, and resistance is at 8800 [20]. (9) Red Dates - Focus: The main 2601 contract of red dates fluctuates in a narrow range. - Reasons: New red dates are about to be harvested, and the market is affected by the harvest rhythm. - Technical analysis: The contract is in a rebound rhythm. - Strategy: Hold a small - position long position. Support is at 10995, and resistance is at 11250 [23]. (10) Sugar - Focus: The main 2601 contract of sugar oscillates downward. - Reasons: Domestic sugar mills start production, and imported sugar supply remains high. - Technical analysis: The contract price breaks below the moving average system. - Strategy: Close long positions and establish a small - position short position. Support is at 5424, and resistance is at 5482 [24][26].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided on the industry investment rating 2. Core View - As the National Day holiday approaches in 2025, the domestic futures market will be closed for eight days while the international futures market remains open with significant price fluctuations, which will greatly impact the post - holiday trends of domestic futures. For the agricultural products sector closely linked to international markets, traders should carefully weigh risks and opportunities when holding positions during the holiday. The general principle is to clear positions, and if holding positions, it is advisable to hold profitable positions with light volume and set clear stop - loss strategies [1]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1. General Strategy for Agricultural Products - Due to the long - term closure of the domestic futures market during the National Day holiday and the continuous trading of the international market, there are uncertainties in the post - holiday market. Traders should mainly clear positions, and if holding positions, they should hold profitable positions with light volume and set stop - loss strategies [1]. 3.2. Soybean Meal and Rapeseed Meal - **Fundamentals**: The soybean meal market is affected by multiple factors. The repeated export tariffs in Argentina have led to a significant decline in soybean meal futures prices, and the domestic supply - demand situation is loose. The rapeseed meal market is relatively rigid, and its price is affected by soybean meal. The improvement of Sino - US economic and trade relations will increase the pressure on soybean meal [2]. - **Strategy**: Hold light short positions in soybean meal during the holiday with stop - loss set, and conservative investors should close positions [2]. 3.3. Palm Oil, Soybean Oil, and Rapeseed Oil - **Fundamentals**: The fundamentals of different oil varieties vary. Soybean oil supply is abundant, rapeseed oil is relatively strong due to expected supply shortages, and domestic palm oil is affected by the Malaysian market with reduced inventory pressure [3]. - **Strategy**: Hold light long positions in palm oil and rapeseed oil during the holiday, and close soybean oil positions [4]. 3.4. Corn - **Fundamentals**: The new corn harvest is expected to be realized, and the concentrated listing of new grains will bring supply pressure, with more bearish factors in the future [4]. - **Strategy**: Hold light short positions in corn futures during the holiday and avoid heavy positions [5]. 3.5. Cotton - **Fundamentals**: The new cotton has a good harvest, but downstream demand is lower than expected, and the consumption recovery is slow [6]. - **Strategy**: Hold light short positions in cotton futures during the holiday and avoid heavy positions [7]. 3.6. Sugar - **Fundamentals**: The domestic sugar supply pressure remains, but the rebound of the foreign market limits the decline of domestic sugar prices [8]. - **Strategy**: Hold light short positions in sugar futures during the holiday and avoid heavy positions [9]. 3.7. Live Pigs - **Fundamentals**: The high inventory of live pigs and the weakening of demand after the double - festival stocking period have led to concentrated supply pressure [9]. - **Strategy**: Hold light short positions in live pig futures during the holiday and avoid heavy positions [10]. 3.8. Eggs - **Fundamentals**: The high inventory of laying hens and the large inventory of cold - storage eggs have led to large supply pressure, and the demand is weakening [10]. - **Strategy**: Hold light short positions in egg futures during the holiday and avoid heavy positions [11].

Report Summary 1. Investment Rating No investment rating is provided in the report. 2. Core View The report focuses on the prospects of energy - chemical holiday strategies. It believes that the current trading logic of crude oil is a game between short - term emotional positives from geopolitical or threat - sanction news and medium - term supply - demand surplus fundamentals. The probability of the crude oil price center shifting down in the fourth quarter is high. For futures, most energy - chemical products have a weakening trend, and for options, the potential of put - buying strategies is analyzed [1][4]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Holiday Potential Driving Events and Possible Impacts - There are two scenarios for the September non - farm payrolls data to be released on October 3. If it continues to weaken, the previous interest - rate cut expectations will continue. If there is an upward revision of the August data and the September data stabilizes, it may correct the current optimistic interest - rate cut expectations, having a negative impact on gold, silver, copper, and crude oil, but it's not enough to break the $60 support for WTI unless there is a collective slump in risk assets [1]. - At the OPEC+ meeting on October 5, OPEC is expected to increase production by 137,000 barrels per day in October and may partially or fully restore 1.65 million barrels per day in the future. Whether the continued or unexpectedly high production increase can drive the crude oil price below the $60 support is worth attention, as a breakdown may lead to a large decline in overseas crude oil futures during the holiday [1]. 3.2 Futures Strategy Since August, most short - selling strategies in the evening reports, except for crude oil, have achieved significant profits. The holiday strategy is to actively take half - position or more profits and keep a partial position. The weak fundamentals of most energy - chemical products remain unchanged, and the downward trend continues [2]. 3.3 Put - Buying Strategy - **Current Background**: The trading logic of crude oil is a game between short - term positives and medium - term negatives. The probability of the crude oil price center shifting down in the fourth quarter is high [4]. - **Advantages**: The absolute volatility of overseas crude oil futures during holidays has significantly increased in recent years. For put options, as long as the absolute price movement of the underlying asset is large enough, the option yield far exceeds the futures yield [4]. - **Disadvantages**: Before long holidays, the implied volatility of put options has been rising rapidly, resulting in high premiums for put options before holidays and a lower cost - effectiveness compared to four or five years ago [4]. - **Investment Suggestion**: The investment in put - buying should not exceed 5% - 15% of the account funds, depending on the contract month. Generally, the 11 - contract should not exceed 5%, the 12 - contract should not exceed 10%, and the farther 12 - contract should not exceed 15%. One can also use the previous futures profits for partial investment. When buying put options, one should consider whether the profit from the absolute price change during the 8 - day National Day holiday can exceed the time value and volatility value depreciation [5]. - **Value Estimation**: Taking the 11 - contract P out - of - the - money 4 - strike put option of crude oil as an example, the total depreciation is about 70%. The value of the put option is the same as before the holiday when the 11 - contract opens 3.2% lower after the holiday, and it doubles when it drops 5%. For the 12 - contract P out - of - the - money 5 - strike put option of crude oil, the total depreciation is about 35%. The value of the put option is the same as before the holiday when the 12 - contract opens 2.3% lower after the holiday, and it doubles when it drops 6.5%. For the 12 - contract P out - of - the - money 2.5 - strike put option of PX, the total depreciation is about 55%. The value of the put option is the same as before the holiday when the 12 - contract opens 1.6% lower after the holiday, and it doubles when it drops 3.2% [6]. - **Alternative Option**: Usually, other energy - chemical products follow crude oil, so generally, only crude oil put options are considered. But this year, due to the high premium of crude oil put options and relatively low implied - volatility premium of PX12 - contract put options, PX12 can be a second choice [6].

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core View of the Report - Most short positions on energy and chemical products entered the market in early and mid - August and have gained significant profits after nearly two months. Before the National Day holiday, it is recommended to gradually reduce positions and only keep a small part of the positions. If WTI breaks through the strong support of $60 during the holiday, there will be significant short - term acceleration space [1][2] Summary by Directory 1. Overall Situation - The short positions on energy and chemical products entered the market in early and mid - August and have been held for nearly two months with large profit margins. It is suggested to gradually reduce positions before the National Day holiday and only keep part of the positions. If WTI breaks through the $60 support during the holiday, short - term acceleration space is large [1][2] 2. Individual Varieties (1) Crude Oil - Logic: In the context of OPEC+ increasing production and seasonal decline in US demand, the probability of oversupply in the second half of the year is high. The mid - term bearish view based on oversupply should be maintained without over - emphasizing short - term positive factors [3] - Technical Analysis: The daily - level shows a mid - term downward structure, and the hourly - level shows a short - term upward structure. It rebounded today after reducing positions and stood above the short - term pressure at 485. The hourly cycle turned bullish again, with the short - term support at 482. There are two strategies: stop - loss of short positions at the hourly level or widen the stop - loss to the upper limit of the daily - level oscillation at 500 [3] (2) Styrene (EB) - Logic: The weekly fundamentals of styrene have not improved significantly. Despite a slight decline in supply due to device maintenance, high production and inventory levels remain. New device production in September - October will add to the supply pressure, so the bearish view remains [5] - Technical Analysis: The hourly - level shows a short - term downward structure. It oscillated today and closed above the short - term pressure at 6935, but the rebound was weak. Half of the short positions should be taken profit [5][8] (3) Rubber - Logic: Overseas raw material prices have declined, weakening cost support. Domestic inventory reduction is slow, and there is pressure from falling crude oil prices and synthetic rubber substitution. The demand side is mixed, with semi - steel tire开工 falling and full - steel tire开工 remaining high. The fundamentals are neutral [11] - Technical Analysis: The daily - level shows a mid - term oscillating structure, and the hourly - level shows a downward structure. It oscillated today, with the short - term pressure at 16000. Short positions should be held [12][13] (4) Synthetic Rubber (BR) - Logic: The supply - demand situation of synthetic rubber has no major contradictions. The supply side has seen an increase in production after device maintenance. The main concern is the cost of butadiene, with port inventory increasing and supply pressure expected to rise. The cost side is bearish [14][17] - Technical Analysis: The daily - level shows a mid - term oscillating/downward structure, and the hourly - level shows a downward structure. It oscillated today, with the short - term pressure at 11730. Short positions should be held, and take - profit can be set at 11730 [17] (5) PX - Logic: PX has good profits and high production. The short - term supply - demand has weakened slightly, mainly driven by crude oil costs [21] - Technical Analysis: The hourly - level shows a short - term oscillating structure. It rebounded today after reducing positions and stood above the short - term pressure at 6655. The remaining short positions should be stopped - loss [21] (6) PTA - Logic: The cost of crude oil is expected to decline, and PTA has a high probability of inventory accumulation due to high supply and weak demand. The fundamentals are pessimistic [22] - Technical Analysis: The hourly - level shows a short - term oscillating structure. It rebounded today after reducing positions and stood above the short - term pressure at 4620. The remaining short positions should be taken profit [22] (7) PP - Logic: The demand has improved slightly during the peak season, but the supply pressure has increased due to new device production. Be cautious about short - selling after the price decline, and pay attention to the cost - collapse logic caused by falling crude oil prices [24] - Technical Analysis: The hourly - level shows a short - term downward structure. It oscillated today, with the short - term pressure at 6935. After taking profit last week, there is no good entry point, so it is recommended to wait and see [24] (8) Methanol - Logic: The situation of weak current and strong expectation continues. The domestic production is still high, and the port inventory is at a historical high. Although there is a potential for improvement in the fourth quarter, the current 01 contract has a high premium, so it is not recommended to buy on the left side. The downward trend since August has not ended [28] - Technical Analysis: The daily - level shows a mid - term downward structure, and the hourly - level shows a downward structure. It oscillated today, with the short - term pressure at 2375. The remaining short positions should be held cautiously, and the take - profit can be set at 2375 [28] (9) PVC - Logic: The supply pressure is high due to new device production, and the demand is weak both domestically and overseas. The inventory has reached a historical high, and the pressure remains [32] - Technical Analysis: The daily - level shows a mid - term downward structure, and the hourly - level shows a downward structure. It oscillated today, with the short - term pressure at 4980 and the 15 - minute pressure at 4930. Short positions on the 15 - minute cycle can be held, with the stop - loss at 4945 [32] (10) Ethylene Glycol (EG) - Logic: The current supply - demand situation is relatively stable, but attention should be paid to the potential supply pressure from new device production and the impact of falling crude oil prices [35] - Technical Analysis: The daily - level shows a mid - term oscillating/downward structure, and the hourly - level shows a downward structure. It oscillated today, with the short - term pressure at 4275. Short positions should be held, and take - profit can be set at 4275 [35] (11) Plastic - Logic: The supply pressure has increased due to new device production, and the demand improvement during the peak season is limited. The supply - demand situation is bearish, and attention should be paid to the cost - driven impact of falling crude oil prices [37] - Technical Analysis: The daily - level shows a mid - term oscillating/downward structure, and the hourly - level shows a downward structure. It oscillated today, with the short - term pressure at 7205. The remaining short positions should be held [39] (12) Soda Ash - Logic: The supply of soda ash remains high, and the high - production and high - inventory situation has not improved [41] - Technical Analysis: The hourly - level shows an oscillating structure. It oscillated today, with the short - term pressure at 1321. The remaining short positions should be held [41] (13) Caustic Soda - Logic: The supply of liquid chlorine is abundant, and the demand from non - aluminum industries has limited improvement. The inventory has increased again, and the short - term fundamentals have weakened. Attention should be paid to the demand improvement during the peak season and device maintenance in the medium term [44] - Technical Analysis: The hourly - level shows a downward structure. It oscillated today, with the short - term pressure difficult to determine, and the 15 - minute pressure at 2575. After taking profit last week, there is no good entry point, so it is recommended to wait and see [44]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core View of the Report The report analyzes the trends of various agricultural products. Some products like rapeseed meal are facing downward pressure due to potential supply increases, while others such as sugar and corn are experiencing rebounds influenced by factors like weather and inventory changes. Each product's market situation is detailed along with corresponding trading strategies [1][2][4]. 3. Summary by Variety Rapeseed Meal - Continued to decline; impacted by Argentina's cancellation of export tax and potential improvement in China - Canada trade relations, leading to increased supply expectations. Also, high domestic soybean crushing and rising soybean meal inventory added pressure [2]. - The main 2601 contract fell significantly, below the moving - average system, hitting a 2 - month low. The strategy is to short with a light position, with support at 2377 and resistance at 2450 [2][3]. Sugar - The main 2601 contract rebounded significantly, driven by short - covering and the rebound of the overseas market. The approaching typhoon in the south provided a weather - related price - boosting factor [4]. - The contract rebounded from a low level, standing above the short - term moving average. The strategy is to close short positions, with support at 5440 and resistance at 5530 [4]. Soybean Oil - After a sharp decline, it slightly rebounded, but the downward trend remained. Argentina's tax cut on soybean products increased international competition, and domestic supply was abundant [6]. - The main 2601 contract fluctuated far below the moving - average system. The strategy is to short with a light position, with support at 8018 and resistance at 8150 [6]. Palm Oil - Rebounded from a low level, supported by improved supply - demand in Malaysia (production down 8% and exports up 8 - 9% in the first 20 days of September). Domestic trading volume increased [8]. - Although it rebounded slightly, it was still below the moving - average system. The strategy is to hold short positions, with support at 9000 and resistance at 9150 [8]. Corn - Continued to rebound from a low level. Despite expected new supply, port inventory decline and price increases in North China supported the price [10]. - The main 2511 contract rebounded, with short - covering. The strategy is to close short positions, with support at 2150 and resistance at 2170 [10]. Eggs - Continued to decline with high supply pressure. High laying - hen inventory and a large amount of cold - storage eggs to be released in November led to weak demand after the holiday [13]. - The main 2511 contract fell below the 20 - day moving average. The strategy is to short with a light position, with support at 3030 and resistance at 3090 [13]. Pigs - Rebounded from a low level, but the downward trend remained. High supply due to fattening and disease in some areas was countered by typhoon - affected supply in Guangdong and pre - holiday demand [14][16]. - The main 2511 contract rebounded but was still under moving - average pressure. The strategy is to hold short positions, with support at 12645 and resistance at 12800 [16]. Cotton - Fluctuated narrowly at a low level, with the downward trend unchanged. New cotton was about to be listed in large quantities, and downstream demand was weak [17]. - The main 2601 contract fluctuated with some short - covering. The strategy is to short with a light position, with support at 13500 and resistance at 13635 [19]. Apples - Oscillated upwards. With the end of early - Fuji trading, late - Fuji procurement for the double - festival was active, and cold - storage inventory decreased [20]. - The main 2601 contract oscillated upwards above the moving - average system. The strategy is to go long with a light position, with support at 8290 and resistance at 8428 [20]. Red Dates - The rebound was blocked. There was a game over new jujube production, quality, and opening prices. Market expectations of a new - jujube harvest reduction coexisted with slow pre - holiday procurement [22]. - The main 2601 contract first rose then fell. The strategy is to close long positions and trade short - term, with support at 10715 and resistance at 10900 [22].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core View of the Report The short - term strategy for most energy and chemical varieties is to hold short positions, but before the National Day holiday, it is recommended to gradually reduce positions and only keep a small part of the positions. If WTI breaks through the strong support of $60 during the holiday, there will be significant short - term acceleration space. The overall view on the energy and chemical sector is bearish, mainly due to factors such as supply - demand imbalances and cost - end pressures [1][2]. 3. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs (1) Crude Oil - Logic: In the context of OPEC+ increasing production and the seasonal weakening of US demand, the probability of a supply - demand surplus in crude oil in the second half of the year is high. The strategy should focus on the bearish fundamental situation in the medium term [3]. - Technical Analysis: The daily - level shows a medium - term downward structure, and the hourly - level shows a short - term downward structure. Today, there was a rebound with a reduction in positions. The downward space needs to wait for the foreign market to confirm the breakthrough. The short - term pressure above is around 485. The strategy is to hold short positions at the hourly level [3]. (2) Styrene (EB) - Logic: The weekly fundamentals of styrene have not improved significantly. Despite a slight decrease in the operating rate due to device maintenance, the weekly production remains high year - on - year. With high imports, inventories continue to reach record highs. The high - profit, high - production, and high - inventory situation is difficult to change, and the new device commissioning pressure in September - October is high. The fundamental drive is downward [5]. - Technical Analysis: The hourly - level shows a short - term downward structure. Today, there was a rebound with a reduction in positions but did not break through the pressure. Whether the decline can accelerate depends on crude oil. The short - term pressure above is around 6935. The strategy is to hold short positions at the hourly level [8]. (3) Rubber - Logic: Overseas raw material prices have declined, weakening cost support. Domestic inventories are declining slowly and are still at a high level year - on - year. With the decline in crude oil and synthetic rubber, there is pressure on natural rubber. The demand side is mixed, with a significant decline in the semi - steel tire operating rate but a high level in the full - steel tire operating rate. The current fundamentals are neutral [10]. - Technical Analysis: The daily - level shows a medium - term oscillating structure, and the hourly - level shows a short - term downward structure. Today, it oscillated within the day. The short - term pressure above is around 16000. The strategy is to hold short positions at the hourly level [12]. (4) Synthetic Rubber (BR) - Logic: There is no major contradiction in the supply - demand of synthetic rubber itself. The operating rate has rebounded as the previously maintained devices have resumed operation. The main contradiction lies in the cost side of butadiene. With the concentrated arrival of ship cargoes, port inventories have increased significantly. In the medium term, the supply pressure will gradually materialize as butadiene production capacity is put into operation. The cost side is bearish [13][16]. - Technical Analysis: The daily - level shows a medium - term oscillating/downward structure, and the hourly - level shows a short - term downward structure. Today, it oscillated within the day. There was a position - reduction action before the holiday, but the large - scale position increase since the end of August still exists. The short - term pressure above is around 11730. The strategy is to hold short positions at the hourly level, with the stop - profit reference at 11730 [16]. (5) PX - Logic: PX has good profits and maintains a high operating rate. With more unexpected maintenance of downstream PTA, the short - term supply - demand of PX has weakened, but the contradiction is not prominent. It is mainly driven by the cost side of crude oil [20]. - Technical Analysis: The hourly - level shows a short - term downward structure. Today, it rebounded with a reduction in positions following crude oil. The short - term pressure above is around 6655. The strategy is to stop - profit half of the 15 - minute short positions and hold the remaining half at the hourly level, with the stop - loss reference at the hourly pressure of 6655 [20]. (6) PTA - Logic: The cost side of crude oil is expected to have a supply - increase and demand - decrease surplus in the fourth quarter, which will drive down costs. PTA's own supply - demand is also expected to weaken and accumulate inventories. The demand side is weak in the peak season, and the demand will decline in the off - season from September to November. The supply side maintains a high output year - on - year after the commissioning of large - scale devices in the middle of the year. The fundamentals are pessimistic [22][24]. - Technical Analysis: The hourly - level shows a short - term oscillating structure. Today, it rebounded with a reduction in positions. The short - term pressure above is around 4620. The strategy is to stop - profit half of the short positions when the 15 - minute small - cycle breaks through the 4570 pressure and hold the remaining short positions at the hourly level, with the stop - profit reference at 4620 [24]. (7) PP - Logic: The demand side has improved slightly in the peak season, but the improvement is limited. The supply side has increased pressure with the commissioning of new production capacity. After the high - level decline in the futures price, short - selling should be cautious. Attention should also be paid to the cost - side collapse logic caused by the decline of crude oil [26]. - Technical Analysis: The hourly - level shows a short - term downward structure. Today, it oscillated within the day. The short - term pressure is around 7000. After the stop - profit last week, there is no good entry point, so it is recommended to wait and see [27][29]. (8) Methanol - Logic: The situation of weak reality and strong expectation continues. Domestic production has declined slightly but is still at a high level year - on - year. With a large number of ship cargoes arriving after the resumption in Iran in August, imports have increased significantly. The comprehensive operating rate of downstream olefins has declined after the maintenance. Port inventories continue to accumulate slightly at the highest level in the same period. Although there is a reversal logic in the fourth quarter, the current 01 contract has a high premium, and the valuation is not low. There is no value in bottom - fishing on the left side. The decline since August has not ended [30]. - Technical Analysis: The daily - level shows a medium - term downward structure, and the short - term shows a downward structure. Today, it oscillated within the day. The short - term pressure above is around 2375. After a previous stop - profit, the remaining short positions should be held cautiously, with the hourly line of 2375 as the final stop - profit position [30][32]. (9) PVC - Logic: The supply side has increasing pressure with the commissioning of new production capacity. The demand side is under pressure due to the bottom - less real estate market and the significant increase in anti - dumping duties by India. Inventories have continuously accumulated to the highest level in the same period. The pressure of high supply, weak demand, and high inventory persists [33]. - Technical Analysis: The daily - level shows a medium - term downward structure, and the hourly - level shows a short - term downward structure. Today, it oscillated within the day. The short - term pressure above is around 4980 (far), and the 15 - minute pressure is around 4930. The hourly - cycle is recommended to wait and see, and there is a short - selling signal at the end of the 15 - minute cycle, with the stop - loss reference at 4945 [33]. (10) Ethylene Glycol (EG) - Logic: The weekly operating rates of MEG and downstream industries have little change, and the port inventories of ethylene glycol continue to decline slightly. The short - term reality is strong, and the supply - demand contradiction is not significant. Attention should be paid to the supply pressure under the expectation of new device commissioning and the drive brought by the decline of crude oil [35]. - Technical Analysis: The daily - level shows a medium - term oscillating/downward structure, and the hourly - level shows a short - term downward structure. Today, it oscillated within the day. The short - term pressure is around 4275. The strategy is to hold short positions at the hourly level, with the stop - profit reference at 4275 [35]. (11) Plastic - Logic: The weekly operating rate of PE has rebounded. New production capacity has been put into operation, increasing supply pressure. The downstream demand has rebounded slightly in the peak season, but the rebound is less than expected. The supply - demand is bearish, and the decline in the futures price in September has reflected this. Attention should be paid to the cost - side drive brought by the decline of crude oil [38]. - Technical Analysis: The daily - level shows a medium - term oscillating/downward structure, and the hourly - level shows a short - term downward structure. Today, it oscillated within the day. The short - term pressure above is around 7205. The strategy is to close half of the positions when the 15 - minute cycle breaks through the 7140 pressure and hold the remaining short positions at the hourly level [38]. (12) Soda Ash - Logic: The weekly supply of soda ash has increased from a high level, and the supply side remains loose. The situation of high production and high inventory has not improved [42]. - Technical Analysis: The hourly - level shows an oscillating structure. Today, it rebounded with a reduction in positions. The short - term pressure above is around 1321. The strategy is to stop - profit half of the positions when the 15 - minute cycle breaks through the 1390 pressure and hold the remaining short positions at the hourly level [42]. (13) Caustic Soda - Logic: The supply of liquid chlorine is loose. The demand side shows a high - operating - rate pattern in alumina enterprises, but the off - alumina demand has limited rebound in the peak season. The weekly inventory of caustic soda has increased again, and the high - level pressure year - on - year continues. The short - term fundamentals have weakened compared with last week. The medium - term focus is on the improvement of demand under device maintenance and the downstream peak season [46]. - Technical Analysis: The hourly - level shows a short - term downward structure. Today, it oscillated within the day. The short - term pressure is difficult to find, and the 15 - minute small - cycle pressure is around 2575. After the stop - profit last week, there is no good entry point, so it is recommended to wait and see [46].

Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided on the report industry investment rating. Report's Core View - Today, SC closed with a downward break, leading to an accelerated decline in the energy and chemical sector. Whether the downside space for crude oil can be opened depends on the synchronous confirmation from external markets. Short positions on the fundamental side of the energy and chemical sector entered the market based on technical signals in early and mid - August, and after nearly two months, most varieties have achieved significant profit margins. - Near the National Day holiday, it is subjectively recommended that those who hold existing short positions do not necessarily need to liquidate all positions but should gradually reduce their positions and only keep a partial position for the holiday. If WTI breaks through the strong support level of $60 during the National Day holiday, there will be significant short - term downside acceleration space. [1][2] Summary by Relevant Catalog (1) Crude Oil - **Logic**: At the time of further production increases by OPEC+ and the seasonal weakening of US demand, the likelihood of a supply - demand surplus in crude oil in the second half of the year remains high. The strategy is to not over - emphasize short - term bullish disturbances and to maintain a bearish view based on the medium - term surplus fundamentals. - **Technical Analysis**: The daily - level medium - term structure of crude oil shows a downward trend, and the hourly - level short - term structure is also in a downward trend. Today, there was an increase in positions, a gap - down opening, and a long - negative candlestick. The daily K - line closed at a new low and broke through the support level, and the hourly closing was close to the previous low. After the external market confirms the break, the market may accelerate. The short - term resistance above is at the 479 level. - **Strategy**: Hold short positions at the hourly level. [3] (2) Styrene (EB) - **Logic**: The weekly fundamentals of styrene have not improved significantly. Although there are device overhauls affecting the supply - side operating rate, the weekly production of styrene can still maintain a high level year - on - year due to the high profits of integrated devices. The demand has increased month - on - month with the arrival of the peak season for downstream industries, but under the pressure of imports, the styrene inventory has continued to reach new historical highs. The high - profit, high - production, and high - inventory pattern of styrene is difficult to change, and the pressure from the concentrated commissioning of new devices from September to October remains. The supply pressure will continue, and with the downstream inventory also at a historical high, the fundamental driving force for styrene remains downward. - **Technical Analysis**: The hourly - level short - term structure of styrene is in a downward trend. Today, there was an increase in positions, a long - negative candlestick, and a new low. Whether the decline can accelerate depends on crude oil. The short - term resistance above is tentatively set at the 6935 level. - **Strategy**: Hold short positions at the hourly level. [5][8] (3) Rubber - **Logic**: The prices of overseas raw materials have declined, weakening the cost support. The domestic inventory is depleting slowly and remains at a high level year - on - year, exerting pressure. With the decline of crude oil, there is also pressure from the substitution effect of synthetic rubber. On the demand side, the operating rate of semi - steel tires has dropped significantly, but the operating rate of all - steel tires remains high. The current fundamentals are neutral, with no major contradictions. Short - term attention should be paid to whether there are typhoon disturbances, and currently, the path of Typhoon Hikaa does not pass through Hainan, so the impact may be limited. - **Technical Analysis**: The daily - level medium - term structure of rubber shows a sideways trend, and the hourly - level short - term structure is in a downward trend. Today, there was a decrease in positions and a decline. The short - term resistance above is at the 16000 level. - **Strategy**: Hold short positions at the hourly level. [10][12] (4) Synthetic Rubber (BR) - **Logic**: There are no major contradictions in the supply - demand fundamentals of synthetic rubber itself. The operating rate has recovered with the resumption of previously overhauled devices, and the high operating rate of downstream semi - steel tires under inventory pressure has been maintained. The main focus is on the cost side of butadiene. Recently, with the concentrated arrival of ship cargoes, the port inventory has increased significantly, ending the previously tight inventory pattern. In the medium term, as the production capacity of butadiene is put into operation, the supply pressure will gradually materialize. The most upstream crude oil is also preparing to materialize the surplus pressure as the demand side switches from the peak season to the off - season and OPEC+ continues to increase production. The fundamental logic for synthetic rubber is bearish on the cost side. - **Technical Analysis**: The daily - level medium - term structure of synthetic rubber shows a sideways/downward trend, and the hourly - level short - term structure is in a downward trend. Today, there was a decrease in positions and a small decline. There may be position - reducing actions before the holiday, but the large - scale increase in positions since the end of August still remains. The short - term resistance above is at the 11730 level. - **Strategy**: Hold short positions at the hourly level, with the stop - profit reference at the 11730 level. [14][16] (5) PX - **Logic**: The profit of PX is favorable, and the operating rate remains high. There are more unplanned overhauls of downstream PTA, so the short - term supply - demand of PX has weakened, but the contradiction is not prominent. It is more driven by the cost side of crude oil. - **Technical Analysis**: The hourly - level short - term structure of PX is in a downward trend. Today, it followed crude oil to break through the previous low. The short - term resistance above is tentatively set at the 6655 level. - **Strategy**: According to the plan in Friday's evening report, there was an opportunity to enter the market at 15 - minute intervals after the end of the rebound yesterday morning. Hold short positions and lower the stop - profit to the 6570 level. [20] (6) PTA - **Logic**: The cost - side of crude oil is expected to have a supply - increase and demand - decrease surplus pressure in the fourth quarter, which will drive down the cost. PTA itself also has an expectation of supply - demand weakening and inventory accumulation. On the demand side, the peak season was not prosperous in the early stage, and the load recovery of downstream industries was limited. As it enters the off - season from September to November, the demand will continue to decline. On the supply side, after the commissioning of large - scale devices in the middle of the year, although the processing fee has declined, the output is still at a high level year - on - year. In the future, there will be significant inventory accumulation pressure under high supply and weak demand. Along with the downward drive from the cost side of crude oil, the fundamentals of PTA are still relatively pessimistic. - **Technical Analysis**: The hourly - level short - term structure of PTA shows a sideways trend. Today, there was an increase in positions and a new low, continuing the downward path. The short - term resistance above is at the 4620 level. - **Strategy**: Hold short positions at the hourly level, with the stop - profit reference at the 4620 level. The 4570 level at 15 - minute intervals can be used as a partial stop - profit reference. [22][24] (7) PP - **Logic**: The demand has improved month - on - month during the peak season, but the improvement is limited. On the supply side, the second line of Ningbo Daxie has been put into operation at the end of August, and the first line has also been commissioned. The supply pressure has further increased with the increase in production capacity. The short - term supply pressure still exists, but after the high - level decline in the futures price, one should be cautious about shorting. In addition, attention should be paid to the cost - collapse logic due to the decline of crude oil. - **Technical Analysis**: The hourly - level short - term structure of PP is in a downward trend. Today, there was a small decline during the day, and the closing price reached a new low. The short - term resistance is at the 7000 level. - **Strategy**: After taking profit last week, there is no good entry point, so stay on the sidelines. [25][27] (8) Methanol - **Logic**: The pattern of weak current situation and strong future expectation continues. The domestic production decreased last week but is still at a high level year - on - year. In addition, after the resumption of production in Iran in August, a large number of ship cargoes have recently arrived at ports, leading to a significant increase in imports. After the overhaul of downstream olefins is completed, the comprehensive operating rate has declined, but the port inventory has continued to increase slightly and is at the highest level in the same period in history. The huge inventory continues to exert pressure on the futures price. In the fourth quarter, the supply - demand situation is expected to improve with the commissioning of new downstream devices and the seasonal gas restrictions in Iran, and there is a reversal logic. However, currently, the 01 contract has a premium of 100 yuan (nearly 5%) over the spot price, reaching the highest level in the past five years. The futures price has already partially reflected the expectation of future supply - demand improvement, and the current valuation of the 01 contract is not low, lacking the value of bottom - fishing on the left side. One should wait to go long, at least until seeing a decline in Iranian shipments and an improvement in downstream demand. Currently, the decline since August has not ended under the pressure of the huge inventory and the pressure on MTO demand due to the decline of crude oil. - **Technical Analysis**: The daily - level medium - term and short - term structures of methanol are in a downward trend. Today, it fluctuated during the day, but the hourly closing price reached a new low. The short - term resistance above has been lowered to the 2375 level. - **Strategy**: Since a partial stop - profit was taken earlier, cautiously hold the remaining short positions, and use the 2375 level on the hourly line as the final stop - profit level. [29][31] (9) PVC - **Logic**: The supply pressure continues to increase with the commissioning of new production capacity. The real estate demand has not bottomed out, and India has announced the final anti - dumping ruling on PVC, significantly increasing the tax on Chinese products, which has affected both domestic and export demand. The inventory has continued to accumulate and reached the highest level in the same period in history. The pressure of high supply, weak demand, and high inventory persists. - **Technical Analysis**: The daily - level medium - term and hourly - level short - term structures of PVC are in a downward trend. Today, after breaking through the support level, the short - term structure returned to the downward trend. The short - term resistance above is at the 4980 level (relatively far), and the 15 - minute resistance is at the 4930 level. - **Strategy**: After taking profit last week, stay on the sidelines. Look for opportunities to short on rebounds that fail to break through the resistance at 15 - minute intervals. [33] (10) Ethylene Glycol (EG) - **Logic**: The weekly operating rates of MEG and its downstream industries have not changed significantly month - on - month, but the port inventory of ethylene glycol has continued to decline slightly. The short - term situation is relatively strong, and there are no major supply - demand contradictions. However, attention should be paid to the supply pressure from the expected commissioning of new devices in the future and the driving force from the decline of crude oil. - **Technical Analysis**: The daily - level medium - term structure of ethylene glycol shows a sideways/downward trend, and the hourly - level short - term structure is in a downward trend. Today, there was an increase in positions, a decline, and a new low. The short - term resistance has been lowered to the 4275 level. - **Strategy**: Hold short positions at the hourly level, with the stop - profit reference at the 4275 level. [35] (11) Plastic - **Logic**: The weekly operating rate of PE has increased. In August, the second line of 450,000 tons of new production capacity in Ningbo Daxie has been put into production, and the remaining 450,000 tons are planned to start operation in mid - September. The supply pressure continues to increase with the commissioning of new production capacity. The downstream demand has increased month - on - month during the peak season, but the increase is limited, and the performance during the peak season is lower than expected. The supply - demand situation is bearish, but the decline in the futures price in September has already reflected this to some extent. Attention should be paid to the cost - driving force from the decline of crude oil. - **Technical Analysis**: The daily - level medium - term structure of plastic shows a sideways/downward trend, and the hourly - level short - term structure is in a downward trend. Today, there was an increase in positions and a new low. The short - term resistance above has been lowered to the 7205 level. - **Strategy**: Hold short positions at the hourly level. The 7140 level at 15 - minute intervals can be used as a partial stop - profit level. [39] (12) Soda Ash - **Logic**: The weekly supply of soda ash has increased from a high level, and the supply side remains loose. The pattern of high production and high inventory has not improved. - **Technical Analysis**: The hourly - level structure of soda ash shows a sideways trend. Today, there was an increase in positions and a decline. The short - term resistance above is at the 1321 level. - **Strategy**: Hold short positions at the hourly level, and use the 15 - minute resistance as a reference. [41] (13) Caustic Soda - **Logic**: The supply of liquid chlorine on the supply side remains loose. On the demand side, alumina enterprises generally maintain a high - operating - rate pattern under profitable conditions, and the demand in the non - aluminum sector has increased limitedly during the peak season. The weekly inventory of caustic soda has increased again, and the pressure of the high - level inventory year - on - year continues to be reflected. The short - term fundamentals have weakened again compared with last week. In the medium term, attention should continue to be paid to the improvement in demand during device overhauls and the downstream peak season. - **Technical Analysis**: The hourly - level short - term structure of caustic soda is in a downward trend. Today, there was an increase in positions, a long - negative candlestick, and a new short - term low. It is difficult to find the short - term resistance, and tentatively, the 15 - minute small - cycle resistance is at the 2575 level. - **Strategy**: After taking profit last week, there is no good entry point, so stay on the sidelines. [43]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The agricultural product sector is affected by various factors, with most varieties showing a downward trend. The cancellation of Argentina's agricultural product export tax has a significant negative impact on two - meal (soybean meal and rapeseed meal) and oil products, increasing global supply pressure and driving prices down. Other products are also under pressure due to factors such as supply - demand imbalance and harvest expectations [1]. 3. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Agricultural Product Sector Overview - Affected by Argentina's cancellation of agricultural product export tax, two - meal and oil products tumbled, and the market will be weak. Hog prices continued to fall due to oversupply [1]. 3.2 Variety Strategy Tracking 3.2.1 Soybean Meal - Affected by Argentina's tax - exemption policy, the U.S. soybean futures price dropped significantly. Domestic soybean meal output increased, inventory reached a new high, and the futures price hit a more than 4 - month low. Technically, it is weak, and a light - position short order is recommended. The support for the 2601 contract is 2907, and the resistance is 2950 [2][3]. 3.2.2 Soybean Oil - Argentina's tax - exemption policy led to intensified international market competition, triggering large - scale selling and pushing down the futures price. Domestically, supply is abundant, inventory pressure is high, and the futures price hit a nearly 2 - month low. Technically, it is weak, and a light - position short order is recommended. The support for the 2601 contract is 8000, and the resistance is 8100 [4]. 3.2.3 Palm Oil - Affected by Argentina's policy, the Chicago and Dalian bean markets' selling spread to the palm oil market. Domestically, supply and demand are both weak, and the spot price dropped by 400 yuan/ton. Technically, it is weak, and a light - position short order is recommended. The support for the 2601 contract is 8946, and the resistance is 9132 [6]. 3.2.4 Corn - The new corn harvest expectation is being realized, the spot price is weak, and the futures market is in the process of contract roll - over. The 2511 contract rebounded from a low level, while the 2601 contract continued to fall. Technically, it is weak, and a short order should be held. The support for the 2511 contract is 2138, and the resistance is 2162 [8]. 3.2.5 Eggs - The egg - laying hen inventory is high, and there is still a large amount of cold - storage eggs to be released. After the festival stocking, the consumption support is insufficient, and the egg price is under great pressure to fall. Technically, it is weak, and a light - position short order is recommended. The support for the 2511 contract is 3046, and the resistance is 3086 [10]. 3.2.6 Hogs - The supply pressure is high due to increased concentrated slaughter. Consumption demand has a limited increase, and the futures price hit a new low. Technically, it is weak, and short selling is recommended. The support for the 2511 contract is 12600, and the resistance is 12800 [13]. 3.2.7 Cotton - New cotton is expected to have a good harvest, while downstream demand is less than expected. The futures price hit a 3 - month low. Technically, it is weak, and a light - position short order is recommended. The support for the 2601 contract is 13500, and the resistance is 13605 [14][16]. 3.2.8 Apples - Affected by rainfall, the bag - removing work of late - maturing Fuji apples is postponed. There is a short - term supply gap, and the price is supported. The market has some short - long liquidation, and the price fluctuates narrowly. Technically, it is strong, and a light - position long order is recommended. The support for the 2601 contract is 8253, and the resistance is 8350 [17][19]. 3.2.9 Red Dates - Xinjiang gray dates are entering the sugar - increasing stage, and there is an expected reduction in production. The arrival of goods in the sales area is small, and the price of high - quality goods is strong. The futures price continued to rebound. Technically, short orders should be closed, and a light - position long order is recommended. The support for the 2601 contract is 10700, and the resistance is 10870 [20]. 3.2.10 White Sugar - The good harvest prospects in major sugar - producing countries overseas have pressured the external market, driving down Zhengzhou sugar. Domestically, supply has increased, and demand has entered the off - season, and the price is under pressure. Technically, it is weak, and a light - position short order is recommended. The support for the 2601 contract is 5424, and the resistance is 5472 [22].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The agricultural product sector is generally weak, with corn, eggs, pigs, and cotton prices falling, while soybean meal, rapeseed oil, palm oil, apples, and jujubes show different trends of rebound or strength, and sugar prices continue to decline [1]. 3. Summary by Variety Corn - **Market Situation**: New corn harvest expectations are being realized, with increased supply and weak demand. The price of the main 2511 contract has broken through support and is expected to continue falling [2]. - **Technical Analysis**: The main 2511 contract is technically weak, with a MACD death - cross and expanding green bars. The support level is 2140, and the resistance level is 2160. The recommended strategy is to short with a light position [4]. Eggs - **Market Situation**: High egg - laying hen inventory, increased supply due to improved laying rates and cold - storage egg release, and reduced demand after the double - festival stocking. The price of the main 2511 contract has reversed downward [5]. - **Technical Analysis**: The main 2511 contract is technically weak, having fallen below the 10 - day moving average. The support level is 3055, and the resistance level is 3100. The recommended strategy is to short with a light position [5]. Pigs - **Market Situation**: Accelerated slaughter by farmers, increased supply, and lack of significant demand growth. The price of the main 2511 contract continues to decline [7]. - **Technical Analysis**: The main 2511 contract is technically weak, with a bearish moving - average arrangement. The support level is 12700, and the resistance level is 12900. The recommended strategy is to continue shorting [7]. Cotton - **Market Situation**: Expected high cotton production and weak downstream demand. The price of the main 2601 contract has reached a 3 - month low [9]. - **Technical Analysis**: The main 2601 contract is technically weak, with expanding losses below the moving - average system and an expanding MACD green bar. The support level is 13500, and the resistance level is 13700. The recommended strategy is not specified but the trend is bearish [9]. Soybean Meal - **Market Situation**: Unresolved Sino - US trade relations lead to expectations of tight soybean imports in the fourth quarter, while domestic soybean meal output is high and inventory is at a new high. The price of the main 2601 contract continues to rebound [11]. - **Technical Analysis**: The main 2601 contract is technically strong, with short - covering pushing the price above the 5 - day moving average and approaching the 10 - day moving average, and a shrinking MACD green bar. The recommended strategy is to close short positions. The support level is 3016, and the resistance level is 3050 [11]. Rapeseed Oil - **Market Situation**: Tight supply due to poor Sino - Canadian relations, low rapeseed arrivals, and planned shutdowns of oil mills. The price of the main 2601 contract is rising strongly [13]. - **Technical Analysis**: The main 2601 contract is technically strong, with long - position increases pushing up the price, and a MACD golden cross with an expanding red bar. The recommended strategy is to hold long positions. The support level is 10050, and the resistance level is 10170 [13]. Palm Oil - **Market Situation**: Rain in Malaysian palm oil production areas may affect production, and export data has improved. The price of the main 2601 contract first declined and then rose [15]. - **Technical Analysis**: The main 2601 contract has rebounded above the 40 - day moving average, and the market is volatile. The recommended strategy is short - term trading. The support level is 9252, and the resistance level is 9398 [15]. Apples - **Market Situation**: Rain delays the bag - removing work of late - maturing Fuji apples, and there is a short - term supply gap. The price of the main 2601 contract first declined and then rose strongly [17]. - **Technical Analysis**: The main 2601 contract is technically strong, with a long lower - shadow阳线 and the price above the moving - average system. The recommended strategy is to go long with a light position. The support level is 8240, and the resistance level is 8363 [17]. Jujubes - **Market Situation**: Xinjiang jujubes are entering the sugaring stage, and there are expectations of a production reduction. The price of the main 2601 contract is rebounding from a low level [19]. - **Technical Analysis**: The main 2601 contract has rebounded slightly, approaching the 5 - day moving average. The recommended strategy is to reduce short positions. The support level is 10580, and the resistance level is 10900 [19]. Sugar - **Market Situation**: Increased domestic sugar supply from beet sugar mills and high - volume imports, and weak demand after the peak season. The price of the main 2601 contract continues to decline [22]. - **Technical Analysis**: The main 2601 contract is technically weak, with the price below the moving - average system and expanding losses. The recommended strategy is to short with a light position. The support level is 5440, and the resistance level is 5480 [22].

Report Summary 1. Industry Investment Rating No information provided. 2. Core View - On Friday, the industrial silicon futures rose sharply in the afternoon, breaking through the high of Tuesday, mainly influenced by capital behavior, overall commodity sentiment, and policy news. The current spot price of industrial silicon is stable, with a slight increase in inventory. Continued attention should be paid to whether there are relevant capacity exit policies. The industrial silicon futures are running strongly [2]. - Maintain the idea of buying on dips. The recommended attention range is 9080 - 9150, and the stop - loss range is 8950 - 8990 [3][4]. 3. Summary by Directory Fundamental Analysis - **Supply**: According to Nonferrous Network data, this week, the weekly output of industrial silicon from sample enterprises in Xinjiang increased by 0.15 million tons to 3.36 million tons, and the operating rate increased by 3.1% to 69.36%. In Yunnan, the weekly output increased slightly by 50 tons to 7565 tons, and in Sichuan, it remained flat at 2135 tons. As the wet season deepens, the electricity price advantage in the southwest region is more obvious, accelerating the resumption of production of silicon plants. The number of newly opened furnaces in Sichuan and Yunnan is increasing. The wet season in the southwest lasts until October, followed by the normal - water season in November and the dry season in December, with expected production cuts in the future. Some large factories in Xinjiang maintain a stable production rhythm. Overall, the supply shows a pattern of stable production in the northwest and shrinking capacity in the southwest [6][7]. - **Demand**: The downstream of industrial silicon is mainly concentrated in the organic silicon, polysilicon, and aluminum alloy fields. Organic silicon's operating rate is generally stable this week, with a relatively stable demand for industrial silicon. In the polysilicon sector, the inventory and operating rate of the downstream polysilicon industry are rising, increasing the demand for industrial silicon. Frequent industry meetings have stimulated positive market expectations. In the aluminum alloy sector, the overall inventory continues to rise significantly, the operating rate of the aluminum - silicon alloy industry shows a slight increasing trend, and downstream orders are good, promoting the increase of the operating rate. In general, the total demand for industrial silicon from the three major downstream industries is stable [8][9]. - **Inventory**: This week, the social inventory of industrial silicon increased slightly by 0.4 million tons to 54.3 million tons, still at a high level in the same period. The downstream industrial silicon inventory was 22.15 million tons, basically unchanged from the previous week. As of September 19, the total number of registered warehouse receipts for industrial silicon was 49,874 lots, basically unchanged from the previous week [10]. Capital Position Analysis - At the close, the position of the 2511 main contract was 311,097 lots, an increase of 26,045 lots. The long - short list shows that the top 20 long - position seats increased by 16,175 lots, and the top 20 short - position seats increased by 13,349 lots. Although the long positions increased more than the short positions, the net short position still reached 31,225 lots [11]. Technical Analysis - On the daily level, the EMA5, 10, and 20 - day moving averages are diverging upward, and the MACD forms a golden cross upward. On Friday afternoon, it broke through the previous high, indicating strong bullish power. The upper pressure is near the previous high, and the lower support is near the neckline and the EMA5 daily line. It is recommended to pay attention to the strength on dips. The band winner indicator shows that the long - short spectrum line on the daily level is red and upward, and the red ladder line appears, with the three - line resonance diverging upward, indicating overall strong operation [13][15].