Group 1: Report Summary - The report focuses on the energy and chemical sector, analyzing the market conditions of various products including crude oil, styrene, rubber, and others [1][2][3] - Geopolitical tensions have led to an increase in crude oil prices, but the performance of energy and chemical products has deviated from crude oil [1][3] - The mid - term and short - term structures and trading strategies for each product are provided [2] Group 2: Industry Investment Rating - Not mentioned in the report Group 3: Core Views - Geopolitical factors, especially the US - Iran nuclear negotiations, are key factors affecting the short - term crude oil market, while the mid - term supply surplus pressure from OPEC+ remains [3][4] - For most products, the mid - term outlook is bearish due to factors such as supply - demand imbalances and raw material cost changes [2][4][7] Group 4: Summary by Product Crude Oil - Logic: The mid - term supply surplus is strong due to OPEC+ production increase, but short - term prices are boosted by geopolitical and macro factors. Focus on the progress of the Iran nuclear deal [4] - Technical analysis: Mid - term downward structure on the daily chart, short - term upward structure on the hourly chart. Support at 485. Strategy: Wait for the short - term support to break [4] Benzene (Styrene) - Logic: Cost - side pressure from high port inventories of pure benzene and expected supply increase; supply is high and demand is weak. Mid - term bearish [7] - Technical analysis: Short - term downward structure on the hourly chart. Look for short - selling opportunities after the 7335 support breaks on the 15 - minute cycle [7] Rubber - Logic: Supply increase from the main producing areas and weak terminal demand. Mid - term bearish [10] - Technical analysis: Mid - term and short - term downward structures. Short - selling opportunity at the close of the first K - line in the afternoon [10] Synthetic Rubber - Logic: Supply pressure from butadiene production increase and weak demand due to tire inventory. Mid - term bearish [14] - Technical analysis: Mid - term and short - term downward structures. Hold short positions with a stop - profit at 11470 [14] PX - Logic: Short - term supply - demand is strong due to restart of devices and upcoming maintenance. Focus on crude oil cost [18] - Technical analysis: Short - term downward structure on the hourly chart. Look for short - selling opportunities after the rebound ends [18] PTA - Logic: Supply increases as maintenance devices restart, and demand is weak. Short - term no inventory pressure but the situation has weakened. Focus on crude oil [20] - Technical analysis: Short - term downward structure on the hourly chart. Hold short positions with a stop - loss at 4720 [20] PP - Logic: Weak demand in the off - season and expected supply increase from new device production. Focus on crude oil cost [23] - Technical analysis: Short - term downward structure on the hourly chart. Hold short positions with a stop - profit at 6980 [23] Methanol - Logic: High domestic production and import lead to inventory accumulation. Mid - term pressure is large [24] - Technical analysis: Mid - term downward structure on the daily chart, short - term upward structure on the hourly chart. Wait for the support at 2265 to break for short - selling [24] PVC - Logic: Weak downstream demand in the real - estate downturn and weak export. Bearish fundamentals [27] - Technical analysis: Mid - term and short - term downward structures. Hold short positions with a stop - loss at 4850 [27] Ethylene Glycol (EG) - Logic: Supply tightens due to domestic device maintenance and reduced imports, and short - term demand is okay. Short - term support exists [32] - Technical analysis: Mid - term and short - term downward structures. Hold short positions with a stop - profit at 4300 [32] Plastic - Logic: Short - term low production due to device maintenance, but large supply increase expected in the future. Mid - term bearish [33] - Technical analysis: Mid - term downward structure on the daily chart, short - term upward structure on the hourly chart. Wait for the support at 7085 to break for short - selling [33]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The agricultural products sector shows mixed trends: pig prices rise significantly, sugar prices continue to fall, and other products have different price movements [1]. - The price trends of various agricultural products are affected by factors such as policies, international market conditions, supply - demand relationships, and technical indicators. 3. Summary by Variety (1) Pig - Focus: The 2509 contract of live pigs rises strongly, supported by the state's 10,000 - ton pork purchase and storage news, which boosts market confidence and encourages slaughter enterprises to increase pig - purchasing efforts [2]. - Technical analysis: The main 2509 contract closes with a long positive line, standing above the 20 - day moving average, with an expanding MACD red column. The recommended strategy is to hold a small - position long order, with support at 13,560 and resistance at 13,880 [2]. (2) Sugar - Focus: The 2509 contract of sugar continues to fall, dragged down by the weak external market. Brazil's sugar - making pace accelerates, and the sugar production prospects in India and Thailand are good, causing the ICE raw sugar futures price to decline [3]. - Technical analysis: The main 2509 contract continues to fall, below all moving averages, with a weak technical pattern. The recommended strategy is to hold a small - position short order, with support at 5,610 and resistance at 5,664 [3]. (3) Palm Oil - Focus: The 2509 contract of palm oil rebounds and fluctuates after a sharp decline, boosted by the rise in crude oil prices, but the rebound is limited due to the abundant supply in the producing areas. Malaysia's palm oil production and inventory increase in May [6]. - Technical analysis: The main 2509 contract rebounds slightly but is still below all moving averages, with a dead - cross sign in MACD. The recommended strategy is to hold a small - position short order at high prices, with support at 7,958 and resistance at 8,070 [6]. (4) Soybean Meal - Focus: The 2509 contract of soybean meal oscillates upward. The agreement framework reached between China and the United States boosts market sentiment. The rising cost of imported Brazilian soybeans and the oil mills' increased willingness to support prices contribute to the rise [7]. - Technical analysis: The main 2509 contract oscillates at a high level, above the moving - average system, with an expanding MACD red column. The recommended strategy is to hold a small - position long order, with support at 3,031 and resistance at 3,065 [7]. (5) Corn - Focus: The 2507 contract of corn adjusts at a high level. Although supported by the wheat purchase - storage policy, it faces resistance at high levels, and long - position liquidation leads to a price correction [9]. - Technical analysis: The main 2507 contract continues to adjust but remains above the moving averages. The recommended strategy is to hold a long order, with support at 2,364 and resistance at 2,387 [9]. (6) Cotton - Focus: The 2509 contract of cotton oscillates narrowly after a continuous rise, supported by the positive news of China - US economic and trade talks. The domestic textile market is in the off - season, but the inventory is declining [11]. - Technical analysis: The main 2509 contract fluctuates at a high level, with a golden - cross above the MACD zero - axis and an expanding red column. The recommended strategy is to hold a small - position long order, with support at 13,490 and resistance at 13,600 [11]. (7) Soybean Oil - Focus: The 2509 contract of soybean oil continues to decline, pressured by the increasing domestic supply. The large arrival of imported soybeans and the high operating rate of oil mills lead to a significant accumulation of soybean oil inventory [13]. - Technical analysis: The main 2509 contract continues to decline, below the moving - average system. The recommended strategy is to hold a small - position short order, with support at 7,666 and resistance at 7,728 [13]. (8) Eggs - Focus: The 2508 contract of eggs oscillates downward. The high inventory of laying hens and weak demand during the off - season put pressure on the egg futures price [16]. - Technical analysis: The main 2508 contract oscillates downward, below the moving - average system. The recommended strategy is to hold a small - position short order, with support at 3,450 and resistance at 3,500 [16]. (9) Apples - Focus: The 2510 contract of apples continues to rebound with intraday oscillations. Low inventory and production - reduction expectations support the price, but the limited demand in the off - season restricts the rebound space [17]. - Technical analysis: The main 2510 contract rebounds and oscillates, standing above the 5 - day moving average. The recommended strategy is to hold a short order, with support at 7,478 and resistance at 7,600 [19]. (10) Peanuts - Focus: The 2510 contract of peanuts continues to fall, reaching a one - month low. Weak terminal demand and increased supply from some holders selling off pressure the peanut price [20]. - Technical analysis: The main 2510 contract continues to fall, below the moving - average system, with an expanding MACD green column. The recommended strategy is to hold a small - position short order, with support at 8,180 and resistance at 8,230 [22].

棕榈油、白糖大跌 一、农产品板块综述 棕榈油大跌,因马来西亚棕榈油产量大增至历史同期高位,供应 增大压力令棕油下挫,国内棕油库存上升,需求偏弱,连棕油大幅下 跌,后市科有续跌空间。白糖亦加速下跌,受到外盘原糖大跌的拖累, 因巴西自糖压榨进度加快,产量增大,同时亚洲糖主产国产量前景较 好,压制外盘大跌,带动郑糖扩大跌幅,弱势料持续。玉米冲高回落, 期价在连续上涨至高位后,多头获利回吐令期价高位调整,但涨势尚 未改变,后市料高位波动。豆粕持续震荡上行,因进口大豆成本上升, 油厂压榨利润下滑后挺价豆粕,豆粕偏强波动。 二、品种策略跟踪 (一) 棕櫚油: 大幅下跌 焦点关注:棕榈油主力 2509 合约大幅下跌,受到产地增产增大 压力: 1.马来西亚棕榈油总署 MPOB 发布的月度供需报告显示,马来西 亚 5 月棕油产量增长 5.05%至 177 万吨,处于历史同期接近最高位, 季节性增产效应明显。马棕榈油 5 月库存亦增 6.65%至 199 万吨,为 去年 9 月以来最高位,出口则大幅增加 25.6%至 139 万吨,同时进口 也有较大增幅,产量和进口激增抵消了出口的增长。棕榈油后续月份 产量预计逐月增加,给棕榈油 ...

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core View of the Report The report provides a comprehensive analysis of multiple chemical commodities, including their mid - term and short - term market outlooks, fundamental factors, and daily technical analysis, with most commodities showing a bearish or cautious outlook in the medium term [1][4][8][11][16][17][20][22][26][27][30]. Summary by Commodity Crude Oil - **Logic**: In the medium term, there is a strong expectation of oversupply due to OPEC+ accelerating production increases, but in the short term, geopolitical factors (unresolved US - Iran negotiations) and a warmer macro - environment have led to stronger prices. The mid - term fundamental pressure remains high [1]. - **Technical Analysis**: The daily - level shows a mid - term downward structure, and the hourly - level shows a short - term upward structure. The price has reached the upper pressure level, and the short - term support is at 474. The strategy is to wait for the short - term support to break on the hourly cycle [3]. Benzene Ethylene (EB) - **Logic**: The cost - side pure benzene has high port inventory and strong import increase expectations, and domestic supply will be more abundant. Benzene ethylene port inventory is increasing, and supply is expected to remain high while demand has not improved. It is bearish in the medium term [4][7]. - **Technical Analysis**: The hourly - level short - term downward structure is under test. The strategy is to focus on the short - selling opportunity after the 15 - minute cycle breaks the 7275 - 7400 oscillation range [7]. Rubber - **Logic**: The price of Thai glue has dropped nearly 20% in the past two weeks, indicating an increase in supply after the main production area starts harvesting. Terminal demand is weak, and the possibility of a squeeze on 20 - grade rubber has further dissipated. It is bearish in the medium term [8][10]. - **Technical Analysis**: The daily - level and hourly - level show a downward structure. The short - term pressure is at 14000. The strategy is to wait for a new short - selling signal on the hourly cycle [10]. Synthetic Rubber - **Logic**: The fundamentals of synthetic rubber are average. In June and the second half of the year, there is a large production pressure on cracking units, and the supply of butadiene is expected to increase, which will put pressure on synthetic rubber from the cost side. Demand is also suppressed by tire inventory pressure. It is bearish in the medium term [11][13]. - **Technical Analysis**: The daily - level and hourly - level show a downward structure. The short - term pressure is at 11470. The strategy is to hold short positions on the hourly cycle, with a stop - profit reference at 11470 [13]. PX - **Logic**: The supply - side profit has recovered, and PX units are gradually restarting. The short - term supply - demand is strengthening, and there are many maintenance plans in July, with a strong expectation of supply contraction. The fundamentals are strong, and attention should be paid to the cost - side crude oil drive [16]. - **Technical Analysis**: The hourly - level shows a short - term downward structure. The short - term pressure is at 6630 - 6660. The strategy is to look for short - selling opportunities after the rebound ends on the hourly cycle [16]. PTA - **Logic**: The supply - side units that were previously under maintenance are restarting, and the operating rate has risen to 78.97%. The demand - side polyester profit is weak, and the operating rate has declined slightly but remains at 91.3%. There is no short - term inventory accumulation pressure, but the supply - demand has weakened compared to before. Attention should be paid to the crude oil drive [17]. - **Technical Analysis**: The hourly - level shows a short - term downward structure. The upper pressure is at 4720. The strategy is to hold short positions on the hourly cycle, with a stop - loss reference at 4720 [19]. PP - **Logic**: The demand is weak in the off - season, and there are large - scale unit startups in June, with a strong expectation of increased supply. Short - term cost fluctuations due to crude oil also need attention [20]. - **Technical Analysis**: The hourly - level shows a short - term downward structure. The short - term pressure is at 6980. The strategy is to hold short positions on the hourly cycle, with a stop - profit reference at 6980 [20]. Methanol - **Logic**: High domestic unit profits have led to a high operating rate, and there is a large increase in imports. The inventory is in the accumulation stage, and the medium - term pressure on the market is large [22]. - **Technical Analysis**: The daily - level shows a mid - term downward structure, and the hourly - level shows a short - term upward structure. The short - term support is at 2260. The strategy is to wait for the support to break and then look for short - selling opportunities [22]. PVC - **Logic**: In the real - estate downturn cycle, the downstream operating rate of PVC has reached the lowest level in the same period of previous years, and the export demand has weakened. The supply - side operating rate is around the average of previous years, and the fundamentals are bearish [26]. - **Technical Analysis**: The daily - level and hourly - level show a downward structure. The short - term pressure is at 4980. The strategy is to hold short positions on the hourly cycle, with a stop - loss reference at 4850 [26]. Ethylene Glycol (EG) - **Logic**: The supply has tightened due to unexpected domestic unit maintenance and reduced imports. The short - term polyester demand is acceptable, and the inventory is decreasing, providing some short - term fundamental support. The supply - demand contradiction is not obvious [27]. - **Technical Analysis**: The daily - level and hourly - level show a downward structure. The short - term pressure is at 4295. The strategy is to hold short positions on the hourly cycle, with a stop - profit reference at 4295 [27]. Plastic - **Logic**: There are many maintenance units in the short term, and the overall operating rate is low. However, there is large - scale unit startup pressure in June and the second half of the year, and the supply increase expectation is high. The medium - term outlook is bearish [30]. - **Technical Analysis**: The daily - level shows a mid - term downward structure, and the hourly - level structure is unclear. The short - term support is at 7050. The strategy is to wait for the support to break and then look for short - selling opportunities [30].

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No investment rating for the industry is provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints - The majority of energy and chemical varieties have seen a decline after reaching a high, and the market remains uncertain [1]. - Most of the varieties analyzed have a bearish medium - term outlook, with varying short - term trends [2]. 3. Summary by Variety Crude Oil - **Logic**: Medium - term, there is a strong expectation of oversupply due to OPEC+ accelerating production increases. Short - term, geopolitical factors (unresolved US - Iran negotiations) and a warming macro - environment have pushed up oil prices, but the medium - term fundamental pressure is heavy [3]. - **Technical Analysis**: Medium - term, it has a downward structure on the daily chart; short - term, an upward structure on the hourly chart. Today's trading continued to rise but with insufficient trading volume. The short - term support is at 474. The strategy is to wait and see on the hourly cycle for the short - term support to break [4]. EB (Styrene) - **Logic**: The cost side (pure benzene) has high port inventories and strong import increment expectations. Styrene port inventories are rising, supply is expected to remain high, and demand has not improved. It is bearish in the medium term [5][8]. - **Technical Analysis**: The short - term downward structure on the hourly chart is being tested. Today, it continued to rise and broke through the short - term pressure at 7270, showing signs of a trend reversal. The strategy is to take profit on short positions and then wait and see on the hourly cycle [8]. Rubber - **Logic**: The price of Thai rubber latex has dropped nearly 20% in the past two weeks, indicating an increase in supply after the main producing areas started harvesting. Terminal demand is weak due to high inventories in the automotive and tire industries. The possibility of a squeeze on 20 - rubber futures has decreased. It is bearish in the medium term [10]. - **Technical Analysis**: It has a downward structure on both the daily and hourly charts. Today, it fluctuated within the day, with the price rising and then falling. The short - term pressure is at 14000. The strategy is to stop loss on short positions and then look for new opportunities on the hourly cycle [10]. Synthetic Rubber (BR Rubber) - **Logic**: The fundamentals of synthetic rubber are average. The supply of butadiene, its raw material, is expected to increase due to the planned commissioning of cracking units in June and the second half of the year. High tire inventories are suppressing demand. It is bearish in the medium term [11]. - **Technical Analysis**: It has a downward structure on both the daily and hourly charts. Today, it fluctuated within the day, and the short - term pressure is at 11470. The strategy is to hold short positions with a stop - profit reference of 11470 on the hourly cycle [13]. PX - **Logic**: Supply - side profits have recovered, and PX units are restarting. Downstream PTA units are also resuming production. There are many maintenance plans in July, so the supply is expected to contract. The fundamentals are strong, but the cost - side drive from crude oil should be noted [14]. - **Technical Analysis**: It has a downward structure on the hourly chart. Today, it rose and then fell, with the increase in positions and price gains erased. The short - term pressure is between 6630 - 6660. The strategy is to look for opportunities to short after the rebound ends on the hourly cycle [16]. PTA - **Logic**: Supply - side units that were under maintenance are restarting, and the operating rate has risen to 78.97%. Demand - side polyester profits are weak, and the operating rate has slightly declined to 91.3%. There is no short - term inventory accumulation pressure, but the supply - demand situation has weakened compared to before. The impact of crude oil should be noted [17]. - **Technical Analysis**: It has a downward structure on the hourly chart. Today, it rose and then fell, with the increase in positions and price gains erased. The upper pressure is at 4720. The strategy is to hold short positions with a stop - loss reference of 4720 on the hourly cycle [17]. PP - **Logic**: Demand is weak in the off - season, and there are large - scale unit commissioning plans in June, so the supply is expected to increase. The cost fluctuations following crude oil need to be monitored [19]. - **Technical Analysis**: It has a downward structure on the hourly chart. Today, it fluctuated within the day, and the rebound did not break through the pressure and then fell. The short - term upper pressure is at 6980. The strategy is to hold short positions with a stop - profit reference of 6980 on the hourly cycle [19]. Methanol - **Logic**: High domestic unit profits have kept the domestic operating rate at a historical high, and imports have increased, leading to inventory accumulation. There is significant medium - term pressure on the market [23]. - **Technical Analysis**: It has a downward structure on the daily chart and an upward structure on the hourly chart. Today, it rose and then fluctuated within the day. The short - term support has moved up to 2260. The strategy is to wait and see for an opportunity to short after the support is broken on the hourly cycle [23]. PVC - **Logic**: In the real - estate downturn cycle, the downstream operating rate of PVC has reached the lowest level in the same period of previous years, and export demand has weakened. The supply - side operating rate is around the average of previous years. The fundamentals are bearish [24]. - **Technical Analysis**: It has a downward structure on both the daily and hourly charts. Today, it fluctuated within the day. The short - term pressure is at 4980. The strategy is to hold short positions with a stop - loss reference of 4850 on the hourly cycle [24]. EG (Ethylene Glycol) - **Logic**: Supply - side domestic unit unexpected maintenance has increased, and imports have decreased, leading to a tightened supply. Demand - side short - term polyester demand is acceptable. Inventory reduction provides some short - term support, and the supply - demand contradiction is not obvious [27]. - **Technical Analysis**: It has a downward structure on both the daily and hourly charts. Today, it fluctuated within the day without changing the downward trend. The short - term pressure has moved down to 4295. The strategy is to hold short positions with a stop - profit reference of 4295 on the hourly cycle [27]. Plastic - **Logic**: Recently, there have been many unit maintenance, keeping the overall operating rate low in the short term. However, there are large - scale unit commissioning plans in June and the second half of the year, so the supply is expected to increase. It is bearish in the medium term [31]. - **Technical Analysis**: It has a downward structure on both the daily and hourly charts. Today, it rose and then fell, but the hourly closing price once broke through the short - term pressure at 7120. Although it fell back with a reduction in positions at the end of the session, the short - term downward structure is being tested. The strategy is to hold short positions, take profit as planned, and then wait and see on the hourly cycle [31].

Report Summary 1) Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. 2) Core View of the Report The report focuses on the performance and outlook of various agricultural products in the market. It analyzes factors such as supply - demand dynamics, policy impacts, and technical indicators to provide trading strategies for different agricultural product futures contracts [1][2][4]. 3) Summary by Variety (a) Soybean Meal - The price of soybean meal futures is on an upward trend. The first meeting of the China - US economic and trade consultation mechanism boosts market sentiment, and the high - opening rate of domestic oil mills increases supply, but inventory is still lower than last year. The technical indicators are strong. The strategy is to hold a light long position for the 2509 contract, with support at 3000 and resistance at 3050 [1][2]. (b) Corn - Corn prices are rising strongly. The implementation of the minimum purchase price policy for wheat in Henan Province on June 6th supports wheat prices and boosts corn prices. Coupled with tight supply and falling port inventories, the technical indicators are strong. The strategy is to hold a light long position for the 2507 contract, with support at 2350 and resistance at 2400 [1][4]. (c) Cotton - Cotton prices are continuously rising. The first meeting of the China - US economic and trade consultation mechanism improves market sentiment, and domestic cotton commercial inventory is decreasing. Although the raw material replenishment of small and medium - sized cotton spinning enterprises is weak, the technical indicators are strong. The strategy is to hold a light long position for the 2509 contract, with support at 13450 and resistance at 13600 [6]. (d) Palm Oil - Palm oil prices are falling. Malaysia's May palm oil production and inventory increased, and the total domestic oil inventory also rose significantly. The technical indicators are weak. The strategy is to hold a light short position for the 2509 contract, with support at 8078 and resistance at 8200 [8]. (e) Soybean Oil - Soybean oil prices are in a downward adjustment. Due to a large number of imported soybeans arriving at ports and high oil - mill opening rates, soybean oil supply is increasing. The strategy is for short - term trading for the 2509 contract, with support at 7724 and resistance at 7790 [10]. (f) Sugar - Sugar prices are oscillating downward. Favorable weather in major sugar - producing countries and expected increases in domestic sugar production and imports limit the rebound space. The technical indicators are weak. The strategy is to hold a light short position for the 2509 contract, with support at 5688 and resistance at 5732 [13]. (g) Live Pigs - Live pig prices are rebounding. The central government's plan to purchase 10,000 tons of frozen pork for storage boosts market sentiment. The strategy is to close short positions and consider a light long position if the 20 - day moving average resistance is broken for the 2509 contract, with support at 13500 and resistance at 13620 [14]. (h) Eggs - Egg prices first decline and then rise, but the downward trend remains. High egg - laying hen inventory, slow capacity reduction, weak post - festival demand, and high storage difficulties during the rainy and hot season put pressure on prices. The technical indicators are weak. The strategy is to hold a light short position for the 2507 contract, with support at 2810 and resistance at 2856 [17]. (i) Apples - Apple prices are in narrow - range oscillation after a sharp decline. The peak season of fruit listing reduces apple demand, and although inventory is low, the slow de - stocking and quality decline due to rising temperatures pull down prices. The technical indicators are weak. The strategy is to hold a light short position on rallies for the 2510 contract, with support at 7480 and resistance at 7600 [19]. (j) Peanuts - Peanut prices are oscillating downward. The weakening of the oil market affects peanut prices, along with limited supply from the grassroots level, low downstream consumption, and cautious purchasing by traders. The technical indicators are weak. The strategy is to hold a light short position for the 2510 contract, with support at 8282 and resistance at 8354 [21].

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. 2. Core Viewpoints - The oil market shows short - term strength due to geopolitical and macro factors but faces medium - term pressure from OPEC+ production increases and the progress of the Iran nuclear deal [1]. - The styrene market is bearish in the medium term due to cost - side pressure and a supply - demand imbalance [7]. - The rubber market has a bearish medium - term outlook because of supply increases in the main producing areas and weak terminal demand [8]. - The synthetic rubber market is also bearish in the medium term due to raw material supply pressure and weak demand [12]. - The PX market has a relatively strong fundamental outlook in the short term, but the medium - term situation depends on the progress of maintenance and crude oil prices [18]. - The PTA market has weakened supply - demand conditions compared to before, and attention should be paid to crude oil prices [20]. - The PP market has weak demand in the off - season and an expected increase in supply, and cost fluctuations related to crude oil need to be monitored [22]. - The methanol market has medium - term pressure due to high domestic production and inventory accumulation, and investors should wait for short - selling opportunities [26]. - The PVC market has a bearish fundamental situation due to weak downstream demand and stable supply [27]. - The EG market has short - term support from supply tightening and demand, but the medium - term situation is uncertain [31]. - The plastic market is bearish in the medium term due to expected supply increases [34]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs (1) Crude Oil - **Logic**: Medium - term supply surplus is expected due to OPEC+ production increases, but short - term prices are supported by geopolitical and macro factors. Attention should be paid to the progress of the Iran nuclear deal [1]. - **Technical Analysis**: The daily - level shows a medium - term downward structure, and the hourly - level shows a short - term upward structure. After breaking through the previous high of 470, the short - term structure has changed. The short - term strategy is to stop losses on short positions [3]. (2) Styrene - **Logic**: The cost side is under pressure as pure benzene inventory is at a 5 - year high, and the supply - demand situation is bearish with high supply and weak demand [7]. - **Technical Analysis**: The hourly - level shows a short - term downward structure. The short - term pressure level at 7270 is still valid. The short - term strategy is to hold short positions with a stop - profit reference of 7270 [7]. (3) Rubber - **Logic**: The sharp drop in Thai glue prices verifies the supply increase after the start of the harvest season in the main producing areas, and terminal demand is weak [8]. - **Technical Analysis**: The daily - level and hourly - level both show a downward structure. The short - term pressure level is 14000, and the stop - loss reference for short positions is 13800 [10]. (4) Synthetic Rubber - **Logic**: The synthetic rubber market is affected by the expected increase in butadiene supply and weak demand from the tire industry [12]. - **Technical Analysis**: The daily - level and hourly - level both show a downward structure. The short - term pressure level is 11470, and the stop - profit reference for short positions is 11470 [14]. (5) PX - **Logic**: The short - term supply - demand situation is strong due to the restart of production and maintenance plans, but attention should be paid to the cost drive of crude oil [18]. - **Technical Analysis**: The hourly - level shows a short - term downward structure. The strategy is to look for opportunities to short after the rebound ends [18]. (6) PTA - **Logic**: The supply has increased with the restart of maintenance devices, and the demand is relatively weak. There is no short - term inventory accumulation pressure, but the supply - demand situation has weakened compared to before. Attention should be paid to crude oil prices [20]. - **Technical Analysis**: The hourly - level shows a short - term downward structure. The upper pressure level is 4720, and the stop - loss reference for short positions is 4720 [20]. (7) PP - **Logic**: Demand is weak in the off - season, and supply is expected to increase due to new device production. Attention should be paid to cost fluctuations related to crude oil [22]. - **Technical Analysis**: The hourly - level shows a short - term downward structure. The short - term pressure level is 6980, and the stop - profit reference for short positions is 6980 [22]. (8) Methanol - **Logic**: High domestic production and inventory accumulation lead to medium - term pressure on the market [26]. - **Technical Analysis**: The daily - level shows a medium - term downward structure, and the hourly - level shows a short - term upward structure. The short - term support level has risen to 2250. The strategy is to wait for short - selling opportunities after the price breaks through the support level [26]. (9) PVC - **Logic**: The downstream demand is weak due to the real - estate downturn, and the supply is at a normal level, resulting in a bearish fundamental situation [27]. - **Technical Analysis**: The daily - level and hourly - level both show a downward structure. The short - term pressure level is 4980, and the stop - loss reference for short positions is 4850 [27]. (10) Ethylene Glycol (EG) - **Logic**: Supply has tightened due to domestic device maintenance and reduced imports, and demand from the polyester industry is acceptable in the short term. There is short - term support, and the supply - demand contradiction is not obvious [31]. - **Technical Analysis**: The daily - level and hourly - level both show a downward structure. The short - term pressure level has been lowered to 4335, and the stop - profit reference for short positions is 4335 [31]. (11) Plastic - **Logic**: The short - term supply is relatively low due to device maintenance, but there is a large expected increase in supply in June and the second half of the year, so the medium - term outlook is bearish [34]. - **Technical Analysis**: The daily - level and hourly - level both show a downward structure. The short - term pressure level is 7120, and the stop - profit reference for short positions is 7120 [34].

Report Summary 1. Industry Investment Rating No industry investment rating is provided in the report. 2. Core View The report analyzes the trends of various agricultural products. After the phone call between the Chinese and US presidents on June 5th, the market's optimism about the trade situation increased, which had different impacts on different agricultural products. Some products were boosted by this positive sentiment, while others were affected by factors such as supply - demand relationships and weather conditions. 3. Summary by Variety (1) Soybean Meal - **Trend**: Strongly rising. The 2509 contract was boosted by trade optimism and rising import costs. The price broke through the 3000 - integer mark, showing technical strength [1][2]. - **Strategy**: Go long with a light position. The support level for the 2509 contract is 2980, and the resistance level is 3050 [2]. (2) Cotton - **Trend**: Breaking upward. The 2509 contract was driven by the positive sentiment of trade optimism. Although the fundamentals remained unchanged, the market expected an increase in cotton - textile product exports. However, the downstream demand was in the off - season, which limited the upward space [3]. - **Strategy**: Close short positions and go long with a light position. The support level for the 2509 contract is 13330, and the resistance level is 13475 [3]. (3) Palm Oil - **Trend**: Rising first and then falling, closing with a shadow - line negative candle. The expected increase in Malaysian palm oil production and inventory limited the increase, while the increase in export volume provided some support. The domestic inventory increased, and the demand was weak [5]. - **Strategy**: Go short with a light position. The support level for the 2509 contract is 8058, and the resistance level is 8186 [5]. (4) Soybean Oil - **Trend**: Strongly rising. Driven by the positive sentiment of Sino - US trade relations, the price rebounded technically. However, the large arrival of imported soybeans increased the supply, which might limit the increase [7]. - **Strategy**: Close short positions. The support level for the 2509 contract is 7686, and the resistance level is 7750 [7]. (5) Sugar - **Trend**: Falling first and then rising, rebounding at a low level. Affected by the decline in ICE raw sugar futures prices, Zhengzhou sugar opened lower, but the high domestic sugar sales rate and low inventory provided support [9]. - **Strategy**: Hold short positions. The support level for the 2509 contract is 5688, and the resistance level is 5741 [9]. (6) Corn - **Trend**: Continuously rising. Supported by tight supply and declining port inventory, the price showed a stable upward trend [11]. - **Strategy**: Go long with a light position. The support level for the 2507 contract is 2329, and the resistance level is 2350 [11]. (7) Live Pigs - **Trend**: Oscillating and falling, continuing the weak trend. High inventory in the breeding end and weak downstream demand in the off - season put pressure on the price [14]. - **Strategy**: Go short with a light position. The support level for the 2509 contract is 13380, and the resistance level is 13545 [14]. (8) Eggs - **Trend**: Continuously falling. High egg - laying hen inventory and weak post - festival demand, along with storage difficulties in the rainy and hot season, led to downward pressure on the price [15][17]. - **Strategy**: Go short with a light position. The support level for the 2507 contract is 2850, and the resistance level is 2889 [19]. (9) Apples - **Trend**: Rising first and then falling, with oscillating prices. The peak season of fruit listing affected apple sales, but low inventory and the expected reduction in some western regions provided some support [21]. - **Strategy**: Hold long positions. The support level for the 2510 contract is 7651, and the resistance level is 7800 [24]. (10) Peanuts - **Trend**: Rising and then falling, continuously closing with negative candles. Affected by the volatility of the oil market, the price showed an oscillating trend. Limited supply at the grass - roots level, weak downstream consumption, and cautious purchasing by traders contributed to this situation [23]. - **Strategy**: Trade short - term. If the 10 - day moving average is broken again, go short with a light position. The support level for the 2510 contract is 8400, and the resistance level is 8450 [23].

Report Summary 1. Investment Rating The report does not provide an overall investment rating for the industry. 2. Core View The agricultural products sector shows a mixed performance. Oils are volatile, with palm oil and soybean oil facing downward pressure due to supply - related factors, while corn has stabilized and rebounded. Sugar continues to be weak, and various other agricultural products such as livestock, cotton, eggs, etc. also have their own supply - demand and price trends [1]. 3. Summary by Variety (1) Palm Oil - Market situation: Malaysian palm oil exports are strong, with India's May imports surging 87% to 600,000 tons, but the producing area is in the production - increasing cycle, and the market expects May's Malaysian palm oil inventory to reach 2.01 million tons, a 7.74% month - on - month increase. In the domestic market, inventory increased to 364,000 tons as of May 30, a 7.47% month - on - month increase, and demand is weak [2]. - Strategy: Light - position short - term short, with support at 8048 and resistance at 8192 for the 2509 contract [2]. (2) Soybean Meal - Market situation: Domestic imported soybeans arrive in large quantities, oil mill operating rates increase, and soybean meal supply rises. As of the end of May, inventory increased to 300,000 tons, but it is still at a relatively low level compared to previous years, and the price shows resilience [3]. - Strategy: Close short positions, conduct short - term trading, with support at 2942 and resistance at 2981 for the 2509 contract [3]. (3) Soybean Oil - Market situation: A large number of imported soybeans arrive in the country, oil mill crushing volume is high, and soybean oil inventory increases significantly, reaching 754,900 tons as of May 30, a 5.77% month - on - month increase. Post - Dragon Boat Festival demand is insufficient, and the price faces downward pressure [6]. - Strategy: Light - position short at high prices, with support at 7612 and resistance at 7682 for the 2509 contract [6]. (4) Sugar - Market situation: Northern hemisphere sugar producers like India and Thailand have good production prospects, and Brazil's dry weather is favorable for sugarcane crushing. International raw sugar prices are under pressure. In the domestic market, expected imports will increase due to open import profit windows and license issuance, and the price is under pressure [7][9]. - Strategy: Light - position short at high prices, with support at 5712 and resistance at 5750 for the 2509 contract [9]. (5) Corn - Market situation: New wheat is on the market, and the substitution supply increases, but the remaining grain in the producing areas is exhausted, supply is tight, and port inventory continues to decline, supporting the price [11]. - Strategy: Light - position long, with support at 2320 and resistance at 2340 for the 2507 contract [11]. (6) Live Pigs - Market situation: The pig inventory of breeding farms is at a high level, the daily slaughter pressure increases, and the downstream demand is weak, in the seasonal off - season, resulting in downward pressure on the price [12]. - Strategy: Light - position short, with support at 13380 and resistance at 13545 for the 2509 contract [12]. (7) Cotton - Market situation: The textile industry is in the consumption off - season, orders are scarce, inventory removal is slow, and demand for cotton raw materials is weak [15]. - Strategy: Light - position short - term short, with support at 13200 and resistance at 13305 for the 2509 contract [15]. (8) Eggs - Market situation: The laying - hen inventory is high, and the production capacity reduction is slow. As of the end of May, the inventory is about 1.334 billion. After the festival, consumption declines, and the storage difficulty increases during the plum - rain and high - temperature season, leading to downward pressure on the price [16][18]. - Strategy: Light - position short, with support at 2857 and resistance at 2901 for the 2507 contract [18]. (9) Apples - Market situation: The remaining apple inventory in the producing areas is low, and the new - season apple bagging work is advancing, with some areas having a production - reduction expectation, supporting the price [19]. - Strategy: Light - position long at low prices, with support at 7680 and resistance at 7760 for the 2510 contract [22]. (10) Peanuts - Market situation: After the previous price increase, the trading atmosphere is dull, the upper - hand volume at the grass - roots level is limited, and the oil mill purchases are coming to an end. The price is in a volatile consolidation [23]. - Strategy: Short - term trading, if the 10 - day moving average is broken again, light - position short, with support at 8340 and resistance at 8426 for the 2510 contract [23].

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - There is no clear industry investment rating provided in the report Group 2: Core Viewpoints of the Report - The crude oil market remains in a state of indecision, awaiting a driving force, while the energy and chemical sector continues to show a weak pattern Most energy and chemical varieties are in a downward structure, and a bearish mindset should be maintained [1][3][4] - The long - term oversupply situation of crude oil remains unchanged The short - term driving force focuses on the new Iran nuclear deal or potential macro - driving factors The macro - economy, which has been directionless since May, may weaken again, and attention should be paid to the non - farm payrolls data on Friday night [3] Group 3: Summary by Variety Crude Oil - Logic: In June, OPEC+ decided to increase production by 411,000 barrels per day in July, not exceeding expectations Kazakhstan has low compliance with production cuts, and Saudi Arabia may further accelerate production increases in August - September The EIA data is not the focus currently The new Iran nuclear deal is likely to be reached [5] - Technical Analysis: The daily - level medium - term and hourly - level short - term structures of crude oil are in a downward trend The short - term pressure is around 468 - 470 The strategy is to hold short positions in the 07 contract with a passive stop - profit at 470 [5] Benzene Ethylene (EB) - Logic: The port inventory of pure benzene, the raw material, has reached a five - year high, and the supply of benzene ethylene is strong while demand is weak, facing downward pressure from raw materials [9] - Technical Analysis: The hourly - level short - term structure is in a downward trend The short - term pressure is at 7270 The strategy is to hold short positions with a stop - profit at 7270 [12] Rubber - Logic: The domestic rubber inventory is accumulating counter - seasonally, the supply is increasing, and the demand for tires is under pressure [13] - Technical Analysis: The daily - level medium - term and hourly - level short - term structures are in a downward trend The short - term pressure is at 14000 The strategy is to look for short - selling opportunities after the rebound fails [13] Synthetic Rubber (BR) - Logic: The supply of butadiene, the raw material, is facing pressure to increase, and the demand is suppressed by tire inventory [16] - Technical Analysis: The daily - level medium - term and hourly - level short - term structures are in a downward trend The short - term pressure is at 11470 The strategy is to hold short positions with a stop - profit at 11470 [16][19] PX - Logic: The supply and demand of PX have weakened in the short term, and the cost of crude oil is under downward pressure [20] - Technical Analysis: The hourly - level short - term structure is in a downward trend The short - term pressure is at 6630 The strategy is to look for short - selling opportunities after the rebound ends [20] PTA - Logic: The short - term supply and demand of PTA are still strong, but the cost of crude oil is under downward pressure [23] - Technical Analysis: The hourly - level short - term structure is in a downward trend The short - term pressure is at 4680 The strategy is to look for short - selling opportunities after the rebound ends [23] PP - Logic: The demand is weak in the off - season, and the supply is affected by new capacity and maintenance The price may follow the crude oil price in the short term [27] - Technical Analysis: The hourly - level short - term structure is in a downward trend The short - term pressure is at 6980 The strategy is to hold short positions with a stop - profit at 6980 [27] Methanol - Logic: The domestic and overseas device operation rates are high, and the inventory is expected to accumulate under high import pressure [30] - Technical Analysis: The daily - level medium - term structure is in a downward trend, and the hourly - level short - term structure is in an upward trend The support is at 2230 The strategy is to wait for short - selling opportunities after the support is broken [30] PVC - Logic: The supply will increase as the maintenance devices resume operation, and the demand is insufficient in the off - season [34] - Technical Analysis: The daily - level medium - term and hourly - level short - term structures are in a downward trend The short - term pressure is at 4980 The strategy is to try short - selling with a stop - loss at 4850 [34] Ethylene Glycol (EG) - Logic: The supply is expected to increase, and the short - term supply - demand contradiction is not obvious [36] - Technical Analysis: The daily - level medium - term and hourly - level short - term structures are in a downward trend The short - term pressure is at 4370 The strategy is to hold short positions with a stop - profit at 4370 [37][38] Plastic - Logic: The supply is affected by new maintenance, the demand is weak, and the inventory pressure is increasing [39] - Technical Analysis: The daily - level medium - term and hourly - level short - term structures are in a downward trend The short - term pressure is at 7120 The strategy is to hold short positions with a stop - profit at 7120 [39]