1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content 2. Core View of the Report - Short - term crude oil fluctuates driven by geopolitics, with high trading difficulty and few participation opportunities. The PX - PTA, a leading chemical variety, may peak and start to correct, and the chemical industry will face a structurally differentiated market in the medium term after the correction [2]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Crude Oil - Logic: Geopolitics is the main short - term driver. Recent events such as the US seizing Venezuelan oil tankers, the受阻 of the Russia - Ukraine peace plan, and the possibility of Israel attacking Iran increase geopolitical uncertainties, making trading difficult [3]. - Technical Analysis: The daily - level shows a medium - term downward structure, and the hourly - level shows a short - term oscillatory structure. The strategy is to wait and see in the hourly cycle [4]. Chemicals (1) Asphalt - Logic: The fundamentals maintain a pattern of both weak supply and demand. With the escalation of the US - Venezuela situation, there is a risk of raw material supply disruption. It can be pre - arranged before the technical structure's upward trend is broken [8]. - Technical Analysis: The hourly - level shows a short - term upward structure. It reached a short - term high today but failed to break through due to lack of volume. The short - term support below has moved up to 2965. The strategy is to take half - profit on long positions before the holiday, and set the remaining half - position's stop - profit at 2965 [8]. (2) Styrene - Logic: The port inventory is accumulating, reaching the highest in five years, and the total industrial chain inventory is at a historical high. The demand is weak in the off - season, and there is still pressure of over - inventory in January and February [10]. - Technical Analysis: The hourly - level shows a short - term upward structure. It reached a short - term high today with an unobvious breakthrough and insufficient volume. The short - term support is at 6700. The strategy is to take profit on the remaining half of long positions [10][12]. (3) Rubber - Logic: The spot price of Thai cup lump rubber is firm, and some funds flow into low - priced products due to a warm macro - sentiment, driving the price up. However, the downstream tire inventory is over - stocked, and the domestic rubber inventory is accumulating seasonally, reaching a year - on - year high. It still faces great pressure after the short - term rise [13]. - Technical Analysis: The daily - level shows a medium - term oscillatory structure, and the hourly - level shows a short - term upward structure but should be treated as oscillatory. It oscillated today, and the short - term support is at 15520. The strategy is to wait and see in the hourly cycle [13]. (4) Synthetic Rubber - Logic: The short - term price of the raw material butadiene is firm due to inventory reduction, and some funds flow into low - priced products due to a warm macro - sentiment, driving the price up. However, high - level production of butadiene will lead to high supply pressure later [16]. - Technical Analysis: The daily - level shows a medium - term upward structure, and the hourly - level shows a short - term upward structure. It oscillated today without changing the short - term upward structure. The short - term support is at 11200. The strategy is to hold long positions in the hourly cycle and set the stop - profit at 11200 [16]. (5) PX - Logic: The fundamentals of PX - PTA are strong in both reality and expectation. Funds have flowed in since last week. However, the short - term increase is too large, the basis has widened rapidly, and the downstream polyester's acceptance of high prices is low. It faces a corrective market [20]. - Technical Analysis: The hourly - level shows a short - term upward structure. It oscillated today. After a large reduction in positions yesterday, it may have reached a short - term peak, but confirmation is needed. The hourly - level support is at 7260. The strategy is to hold the remaining half - position of long positions with the stop - profit at 7260, and exit if the hourly - line closes below this level [20][23]. (6) PTA - Logic: Similar to PX, the fundamentals of PX - PTA are strong in both reality and expectation. Funds have flowed in since last week. However, the short - term increase is too large, the basis has widened rapidly, and the downstream polyester's acceptance of high prices is low. It faces a corrective market [24]. - Technical Analysis: The hourly - level shows a short - term upward structure. It oscillated today. After a large reduction in positions, it may have reached a short - term peak, but confirmation is needed. The hourly - level support is at 5070. The strategy is to hold the remaining half - position of long positions with the stop - profit at 5070, and exit if the hourly - line closes below this level [24]. (7) PP - Logic: The fundamentals of the olefin industry chain where PP - plastics belong are still weak, with new production capacity pressure and the off - season of demand. After the main contract change, the impact of fundamental reality on the market weakens. It is not advisable to chase short positions excessively. Pay attention to expected trading and the possibility of anti - involution policies [26]. - Technical Analysis: The hourly - level shows a short - term upward structure. It increased in volume and broke through the short - term pressure at 6315 today, turning the hourly - level structure to long. The short - term support below is at 6255. The strategy is to wait and see in the hourly cycle [26]. (8) Methanol - Logic: The port inventory is continuously decreasing, but the downstream MTO is under maintenance. The inventory pressure is improved, but the demand expectation is weak. The overall fundamental driving force is not strong. Pay attention to expected trading and the possibility of anti - involution policies [29]. - Technical Analysis: The daily - level shows a medium - term downward structure, and the hourly - level shows a short - term upward structure. It increased in volume and broke through today, making the short - term structure upward again. The short - term support is at 2120. The strategy is to wait and see in the hourly cycle [29]. (9) PVC - Logic: Although the total PVC inventory is still at a historical high year - on - year, due to large profit losses and low chlor - alkali profits, the PVC production and output have declined for three consecutive weeks. After entering the pattern of both weak supply and demand, the total inventory has also decreased for three consecutive weeks, reducing the supply pressure in the short term. The expectation of spring maintenance in the first quarter and the anti - involution sentiment may drive the market up in the short term [33]. - Technical Analysis: The daily - level shows a medium - term downward structure, and the hourly - level shows a short - term upward structure. It increased in price with a reduction in positions today, but the volume was insufficient, and it cannot be confirmed as the end of the correction. The short - term support is at 4670 - 4680. The strategy is to hold long positions in the hourly cycle and set the stop - profit at 4670 - 4680 [33]. (10) Ethylene Glycol - Logic: The losses of ethylene glycol plants are expanding, and the number of maintenance plans is increasing, which is expected to reduce the domestic supply pressure. However, the port inventory is still accumulating, exceeding the median of the past five years. Two 720,000 - ton production capacity plants in Taiwan stopped production last week, and there is an expectation of improvement in port inventory accumulation [34]. - Technical Analysis: The daily - level shows a medium - term downward structure, and the hourly - level shows an upward structure. It increased in price with a reduction in positions today. The hourly - line closed at a new high, but the breakthrough was not obvious and the volume was insufficient. The short - term support is temporarily at 3775. The strategy is to wait and see in the hourly cycle [36]. (11) Plastic - Logic: Similar to PP, the fundamentals of the olefin industry chain where PP - plastics belong are still weak, with new production capacity pressure and the off - season of demand. After the main contract change, the impact of fundamental reality on the market weakens. It is not advisable to chase short positions excessively. Pay attention to expected trading and the possibility of anti - involution policies [38]. - Technical Analysis: The daily - level shows a medium - term downward structure, and the hourly - level shows a downward structure. It oscillated today, and the hourly - level structure has not reversed. The short - term pressure above is at 6545. The strategy is to wait and see in the hourly cycle [38]. (12) Soda Ash - Logic: The pattern of high supply and high inventory remains unchanged, and the inventory has changed from decreasing to increasing. The medium - term pressure of oversupply still exists, but the cost - effectiveness of holding short positions is reduced. It is only suitable for short - position allocation [41]. - Technical Analysis: The hourly - level shows an upward structure. It increased in price with a reduction in positions today, maintaining the short - term upward structure. The short - term support below has moved up to 1170. The strategy is to wait and see after taking profit on long positions yesterday [41]. (13) Caustic Soda - Logic: The pattern of high supply, high inventory, and weak demand remains unchanged. The supply - demand driving force is still downward without a reversal, but there is little space for chasing short positions. After the main contract change, the impact of fundamental reality on the market weakens. Pay attention to expected trading and the possibility of anti - involution policies [44]. - Technical Analysis: The hourly - level shows an upward structure. It increased in price with a reduction in positions today, continuing the short - term upward structure. The short - term support is at 2190. The strategy is to hold long positions in the hourly cycle and set the stop - profit at 2190 [44].

Report Summary 1. Industry Investment Rating No investment rating information is provided in the report. 2. Core View The agricultural products sector shows a mixed trend. Palm oil, cotton, and pigs are on an upward trend, while soybean meal is volatile, sugar is in a narrow - range oscillation, and eggs are also volatile. Each product's trend is affected by supply - demand factors and technical indicators [1]. 3. Summary by Variety Palm Oil - The palm oil main 2605 contract breaks through the resistance and expands gains, supported by reduced supply and increased demand in the origin. Malaysia's palm oil production in the first 25 days of December decreased by 9%, and exports increased by 1.6% - 3%. Technical indicators are strong, and the strategy is to go long on dips with support at 8550 - 8600 [2]. Cotton - The cotton main 2605 contract rises strongly, supported by the expected supply contraction and strong downstream demand. The new cotton sales rate is up 25.1 percentage points year - on - year, and there are optimistic expectations for textile exports. Technically, it is strong, and the strategy is to hold light long positions [3]. Pigs - The pig main 2603 contract continues to rise, driven by increased demand at the end of the year. Group pig enterprises reduce supply, and consumer demand for pork increases. Technically, it is strong, and the strategy is to go long on dips with light positions [5]. Soybean Meal - The soybean meal main 2605 contract is volatile, first falling then rising. High inventory restricts the rebound space, with the domestic soybean meal inventory at 117.6 million tons, up 7.72% week - on - week. The strategy is short - term trading [7]. Sugar - The Zheng sugar main 2605 contract oscillates in a narrow range. Although seasonal supply increases, demand is expected to pick up during the festivals, and the inventory is low. The technical indicators are strong, and long positions can be held [9]. Eggs - The egg main 2602 contract is volatile, first falling then rising. Supply is abundant, but consumption is expected to improve. The strategy is to close long positions and conduct short - term trading [12].

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Ratings No industry investment ratings are provided in the report. 2. Core Views - The overall trend of lithium carbonate has not reversed, and it is advisable to go long at low prices after the price stabilizes and the capital signal recovers. Polysilicon may fluctuate in the short - term, and it is recommended to wait and see. Industrial silicon is in a short - term shock pattern, and attention should be paid to whether the pressure level of 9000 is effective [1][8][13]. 3. Summary by Commodity Lithium Carbonate - **Market Trend**: The lithium carbonate futures contract 2605 closed at 121,580 yuan/ton, up 2.32% from the previous trading day [1]. - **Core Logic**: The price turned to a shock - strengthening pattern, but funds continued to withdraw. The sharp decline yesterday was a normal adjustment. The market has a consistent expectation of increasing demand, and the downstream production schedule in January - February exceeded expectations. In January 2026, the total production schedule of China's lithium - battery market increased by 103% year - on - year [1]. - **Technical Analysis**: The market was still controlled by bulls, with significant position - reduction at the end of the session. The 5 - minute cycle was green, and the overnight 2 - hour cycle was strong, with a long - short dividing line at 11,820 yuan/ton [1]. - **Strategy Suggestion**: Go long at low prices. Intraday operations can refer to the Band Winner indicator in the 8:30 morning live broadcast [2]. - **Concerns**: The resumption of lithium mines in Jiangxi and the import volume of lithium concentrates, as well as the results of long - term contract negotiations and downstream demand release [3][4]. Polysilicon - **Market Trend**: The polysilicon futures contract 2605 closed at 57,890 yuan/ton, up 2.46% from the previous trading day [6]. - **Core Logic**: Affected by the macro - emotional side, it followed the overall commodity trend. Exchange regulations may lead to reduced or withdrawn funds. It returned to the upper edge of the previous shock range, and the support level was not broken, but liquidity decreased significantly [8]. - **Technical Analysis**: The main contract reduced positions by 12.86%, and trading volume decreased significantly. The 5 - minute cycle was red, and the overnight 2 - hour cycle was weak, with a long - short dividing line at 60,760 yuan/ton [8]. - **Strategy Suggestion**: It may maintain a shock pattern in the short - term, and it is recommended to wait and see [9]. - **Concerns**: The recovery of warehouse receipts [10]. Industrial Silicon - **Market Trend**: The industrial silicon futures contract 2605 closed at 8,915 yuan/ton, up 2.29% from the previous trading day [13]. - **Core Logic**: Affected by the maintenance of northern large - scale plants on the supply side, it strengthened in a shock. The supply - demand imbalance continued, inventory was at a three - year high, and downstream restocking was limited [13]. - **Technical Analysis**: The overall open interest continued to decline. There was an intraday trading opportunity at 9:05, with a profit - loss ratio of 1:2. The 5 - minute cycle was red - blue - red, and the overnight 2 - hour cycle was strong, with a long - short dividing line at 8,715 yuan/ton [13]. - **Strategy Suggestion**: It is in a short - term shock pattern. Pay attention to whether the pressure level of 9000 is effective. Intraday operations can refer to the Band Winner indicator in the 8:30 morning live broadcast [13]. - **Concerns**: Macro - emotional changes, environmental protection speculation of large - scale plants in winter, industry anti - involution progress, and new warehouse receipt registration [13].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided 2. Core View of the Report - The three major oils rebounded from their lows, with palm oil leading the way. Cotton continued to rise, while eggs showed a pattern of near - term weakness and long - term strength. Soybean meal rebounded from its low but the downward trend remained unchanged. Live pigs fluctuated narrowly at a low level, and sugar rebounded from its low but the decline was not reversed [1] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Agricultural Product Sector Overview - The three major oils rebounded from their lows, with palm oil leading. High - frequency data showed that from December 1 - 20, Malaysian palm oil exports increased month - on - month and production decreased, boosting the palm oil rebound, but the rebound space may be limited. Cotton continued to rise due to strong downstream demand, a decline in cumulative imported cotton this year, and improved textile export expectations due to better China - US economic and trade relations [1] 3.2 Variety Strategy Tracking 3.2.1 Palm Oil - Palm oil rebounded from its low, with a significant increase in Malaysian palm oil exports (up 43.6% month - on - month from December 1 - 20, 2025 according to SGS) and a decline in production (down 7.15% month - on - month from December 1 - 20 according to SPPOMA). India's cancellation of some Argentine soybean oil imports was potentially positive, and Indonesia's B50 policy provided long - term support. The palm oil futures price rebounded from its low, but the price was still in a downward trend, and the resistance level of 8466 on the 10 - day moving average needed attention [2] 3.2.2 Cotton - Cotton continued to rise. Xinjiang's new cotton was on the market, commercial inventories increased seasonally, but cotton sales rates were higher than last year, indicating strong downstream consumption. Cotton imports decreased (890,000 tons from January - November this year, a 64% year - on - year decrease). Xinjiang textile mills' product sales were smooth, with high - and medium - count yarns selling well, and the startup rate was over 90%. The improvement in China - US economic and trade relations improved cotton textile export expectations. The cotton futures price continued to rise, reaching a new four - month high. The strategy was to look for support levels to go long [3] 3.2.3 Eggs - Eggs showed near - term weakness and long - term strength. The egg - laying hen inventory was high, and overall demand was weak. The old - hen slaughter volume decreased slightly, and capacity reduction was slow. The near - month contract was under pressure from sufficient supply. The main 2602 contract fluctuated narrowly and was technically weak, and the strategy was to hold short positions [5] 3.2.4 Soybean Meal - Soybean meal rebounded from its low but the decline remained. Domestic soybeans were sufficient, with 1 - month shipping contracts mostly purchased. Cofco's continuous soybean auctions had decreasing transaction rates and prices. High soybean imports led to high - pressure oil extraction, and soybean meal inventories remained above one million tons. The main 2605 contract rebounded slightly but was still in a downward trend, and the strategy was to look for resistance levels to go short lightly [7] 3.2.5 Live Pigs - Live pigs fluctuated narrowly at a low level. The domestic pig inventory was high, and farmers were more willing to sell. There was a risk of concentrated supply due to the end - of - year sales plan of large pig farms and the concentrated出栏 of second - fattened and back - pressured pigs. The demand side was not strongly supported, with mild weather and late Chinese New Year affecting pickled meat demand and substitutes diverting some pork consumption. The main 2603 contract fluctuated narrowly, and the strategy was short - term trading until a breakthrough [9] 3.2.6 Sugar - Sugar rebounded from its low but the decline was not reversed. Global sugar production in major producing countries such as Brazil, India, and Thailand was expected to increase (Brazil up 2.3% to 44.7 million tons, India up 25% to 35.25 million tons, Thailand up 2% to 10.25 million tons in the 2025/26 season). In China, southern sugarcane crushing continued, and the supply pressure increased seasonally. The main 2605 contract rebounded, with some short - covering, but the downward trend remained, and the strategy was to hold short positions [11]

Report Summary 1. Market Performance and Investment Ratings There is no report on industry investment ratings provided in the content. 2. Core Views - **Carbonate Lithium**: The current main driving logic is that both the actual and expected demand are good, and the resumption time of the Jiaxiawo lithium mine is repeatedly later than expected, resulting in a generally strong upward trend in futures prices. In the context of "strong reality and strong expectations", the operation should still focus on buying on dips [1]. - **Polysilicon**: Currently driven by the policy side, the market trend is somewhat detached from the fundamental situation. The rapid decline after the lunch break today was due to long - position holders leaving the market, and the overall situation is still controlled by long positions. In the short term, it may maintain a high - level volatile pattern [2][5]. - **Industrial Silicon**: The production reduction expectation of polysilicon is negative for upstream industrial silicon. Currently, the supply - demand pattern of industrial silicon is weak, and the industry inventory is at a three - year high. The situation is now controlled by long positions, and the downward driving force has weakened, so it is considered to be in a volatile state [9]. 3. Summary by Category Carbonate Lithium - **Market Trend**: The carbonate lithium futures showed a strong upward trend today. The main 2605 contract rose 2.68% compared to the previous trading day's closing price, reaching 114,380 yuan per ton [1]. - **Core Logic**: Affected by the notice of restricting the opening volume of positions issued by the exchange after Friday's trading session, the price opened significantly lower but then strengthened quickly. The main driving factors are good demand in reality and expectation, and the delayed resumption of the Jiaxiawo lithium mine [1]. - **Technical Analysis**: The carbonate lithium futures increased in positions and rose today, still controlled by long positions. There was an opportunity to enter the market with the "three - line resonance method" at 9:10 am, with a good profit - loss ratio. The 5 - minute cycle of the main 2605 contract shows a red line, blue ribbon, and red ladder, and the overnight 2 - hour cycle is still a strong red ladder line, with the long - short dividing line at 100,100 yuan per ton [1]. - **Strategy Suggestion**: In the context of "strong reality and strong expectations", the strategy is to buy on dips. Intraday operations can refer to the 8:30 am live broadcast and the Band Winner indicator [1]. Polysilicon - **Market Trend**: The polysilicon futures dropped after the lunch break today. The main 2605 contract fell 2.32% compared to the previous trading day's closing price, reaching 58,845 yuan per ton [2]. - **Core Logic**: Driven by policy factors such as the establishment of a polysilicon platform company and the small number of registered polysilicon warehouse receipts, the market trend is detached from the fundamentals. The decline after the lunch break was due to long - position holders leaving the market. The notice of increasing the minimum opening volume of positions issued by the exchange last Thursday may lead to the departure of retail investors, reducing future liquidity and increasing price volatility [2][5]. - **Technical Analysis**: The polysilicon futures decreased in positions and dropped today, still controlled by long positions. The 5 - minute cycle of the 2605 contract shows a green line, blue ribbon, and green ladder, and the overnight 2 - hour cycle is still a strong red ladder line, approaching the long - short dividing line at 58,030 yuan per ton [5]. - **Strategy Suggestion**: In the short term, it may maintain a high - level volatile pattern. Intraday operations can refer to the 8:30 am live broadcast and the Band Winner indicator [5]. - **Concerns**: The recovery of warehouse receipts [6]. Industrial Silicon - **Market Trend**: The industrial silicon futures fluctuated today. The 2605 contract fell 1.09% compared to the previous trading day's closing price, reaching 8,595 yuan per ton [9]. - **Core Logic**: The production reduction expectation of polysilicon is negative for upstream industrial silicon. Currently, the supply - demand pattern of industrial silicon is weak, with inventory at a three - year high and the accumulation pattern continuing. With the implementation of downstream production cuts, the overall restocking is limited. Now it is controlled by long positions, and the downward driving force has weakened [9]. - **Technical Analysis**: The overall position of industrial silicon futures increased, and it is now controlled by short positions. The 5 - minute cycle of the 2605 contract shows a red line, blue ribbon, and red ladder, and the overnight 2 - hour cycle has turned into a strong red ladder line, with the long - short dividing line at 8,300 yuan per ton [9]. - **Strategy Suggestion**: It is considered to be in a volatile state. Intraday operations can refer to the 8:30 am live broadcast and the Band Winner indicator [9].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - Geopolitical factors are the biggest short - term influence on crude oil, with the focus on the geopolitical developments in Russia - Ukraine and Venezuela [1][2]. - After the US announced a blockade on Venezuelan oil exports, the trading logic of asphalt has shifted from cost - driven to supply - contraction - expected, and the view on the asphalt variety has turned bullish [2]. - In the short term, pay attention to whether the "anti - involution" expectation similar to that in July will drive an intraday upward movement. For intraday unilateral long - position varieties in the energy and chemical sector, priority should be given to PX, synthetic rubber, PVC, and asphalt [2]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs (1) Crude Oil - Logic: With the US - Russia - Ukraine talks and the advancement of the cease - fire expectation, oil prices weakened. However, the announcement of sanctions on Venezuela led to a sharp rebound in oil prices. Geopolitical factors are the greatest uncertainty for oil price increases under the background of oversupply. Pay attention to the possible intensification of sanctions against Russia and the actual action against Venezuela [2][3][4]. - Technical analysis: The daily - level trend shows a medium - term decline, and the hourly - level trend is a short - term decline. The price increased on reduced positions today, and the short - term upper pressure is around 432. The hourly - cycle strategy is to wait and see [4]. (2) Asphalt - Logic: Previously, asphalt traded based on the crude oil cost logic. The US blockade on Venezuelan oil exports will directly affect domestic asphalt supply, and the trading logic has shifted to supply contraction, with a short - term bullish view [7]. - Technical analysis: The short - term hourly - level decline has ended. Today's price is expected to correct on reduced positions. The strategy is to look for low - buying opportunities after the correction ends on the hourly level [7]. (3) Styrene - Logic: Port inventory has continued to decline, but the year - on - year pressure is still relatively large. With a medium - term bearish view, the short - term rebound is driven by the news of the NDRC's emphasis on controlling high - energy - consuming and high - emission projects [10]. - Technical analysis: The hourly - level trend shows a short - term oscillation, and today's intraday trend is oscillatory. The hourly - level structure has weakened, and it is expected to oscillate in the range of 6325 - 6690. The hourly - level strategy is to wait and see [10]. (4) Rubber - Logic: There are no major short - term contradictions in the rubber market. The Thailand - Cambodia conflict has limited impact on rubber supply. The supply - demand side lacks major contradictions, and the market should be treated with an oscillatory view [15]. - Technical analysis: The daily - level trend shows a medium - term decline, and the hourly - level trend is a short - term oscillation. Today's intraday trend is oscillatory, and the hourly - level structure is unclear. The hourly - cycle strategy is to wait and see [15]. (5) Synthetic Rubber - Logic: The core logic of synthetic rubber is guided by its raw material, butadiene. The inventory of butadiene has decreased significantly, and its supply - demand situation has improved in the short term. The short - term strengthening of butadiene may drive synthetic rubber to have an hourly - level upward trend [20]. - Technical analysis: The daily - level trend shows a medium - term decline, and the hourly - level trend is a short - term increase. Today's price corrected on reduced positions, and the short - term lower support is around 10760. The hourly - level strategy is to hold long positions, with the take - profit reference at around 10750 [20]. (6) PX - Logic: There are no new production capacity plans for PX in the next six months, and there are multiple device maintenance plans in the second quarter of next year. The medium - term supply pressure is not large. The short - term demand is expected to weaken, but the overall supply - demand is still balanced. Pay attention to the geopolitical impact on the cost - end crude oil and the possible short - term upward movement driven by the NDRC's policy [23]. - Technical analysis: The hourly - level trend shows a short - term increase. Today's price increased on increased positions, continuing the short - term upward trend. The hourly - level standard support is around 6700. The hourly - level strategy is to hold long positions, with the stop - loss reference at around 6700 [23]. (7) PTA - Logic: PTA is under pressure due to seasonal decline in polyester demand and short - term inventory accumulation. However, the high profit of upstream PX means that the supply of PTA is not expected to decline significantly, and it mainly follows the cost of PX in the short term [27]. - Technical analysis: The hourly - level trend shows a short - term increase. Today's price increased on increased positions, continuing the short - term upward trend. The hourly - level support is around 4655. The hourly - level strategy is to hold long positions, with the stop - loss reference at around 4655 [27]. (8) PP - Logic: The fundamental situation of PP - plastics remains loose, but the oversold market and the news of the NDRC's policy have driven a short - term rebound [28]. - Technical analysis: The short - term hourly - level decline may have ended. Today's intraday trend is oscillatory. The hourly - cycle strategy is to wait and see, and 15 - minute long positions can be held, with the stop - loss reference at around 6230 [28]. (9) Methanol - Logic: The port inventory has flowed to the inland, showing continuous inventory decline, but the downstream MTO maintenance has led to a weak expectation. Affected by the NDRC's policy, the methanol market may rebound in the short term [31]. - Technical analysis: The daily - level trend shows a medium - term decline and a short - term increase. Today's price increased on reduced positions, and the short - term lower support is around 2120. The hourly - cycle strategy is to wait and see, and first look for low - buying opportunities after the correction around 2150 on the 15 - minute cycle [31]. (10) PVC - Logic: The supply - demand situation of PVC is characterized by high supply, weak demand, and high inventory, but its current valuation is low. Affected by the NDRC's policy, the market may rebound in the short term [35]. - Technical analysis: The daily - level trend shows a medium - term decline, and the hourly - level trend is a short - term increase. Today's price continued to rise, and the short - term lower support is around 4680. The hourly - level strategy is to hold long positions, with the take - profit reference at around 4630 [35]. (11) Ethylene Glycol - Logic: The losses of ethylene glycol plants have expanded, and the maintenance plans have increased, which is expected to reduce the domestic supply pressure. However, the port inventory is still accumulating, putting pressure on the market. Affected by the NDRC's policy, the market may rebound in the short term [39]. - Technical analysis: The daily - level trend shows a medium - term decline, and the hourly - level trend is a short - term decline. Today's intraday trend is oscillatory, and the short - term upper pressure is still around 3815 (05 contract). The hourly - cycle strategy is to wait and see [39]. (12) Plastic - Logic: The fundamental situation of PP - plastics remains loose, but the oversold market and the news of the NDRC's policy have driven a short - term rebound [41]. - Technical analysis: The daily - level trend shows a medium - term decline, and the hourly - level trend is a short - term decline. Today's intraday trend is oscillatory, and the short - term upper pressure is still around 6550. The hourly - cycle strategy is to wait and see [41]. (13) Soda Ash - Logic: The high - supply and high - inventory situation of soda ash continues, and the inventory decline rate has slowed down recently. The short - term inventory pressure has improved, but the medium - term fundamentals have not reversed. Affected by the NDRC's policy, the market may rebound in the short term, and the remaining short positions established in August can be closed for profit [43]. - Technical analysis: The hourly - level trend shows a short - term increase. Today's price increased on reduced positions, and the short - term lower support is around 1155. The hourly - cycle strategy is to wait and see [43]. (14) Caustic Soda - Logic: The high - supply and high - inventory situation of caustic soda remains, and the demand is weak in the traditional off - season. There is no sign of a reversal in the supply - demand situation, but there is no more space for short selling in the market. Affected by the NDRC's policy, the market may rebound in the short term [47]. - Technical analysis: The hourly - level trend shows a short - term increase. Today's price increased on reduced positions and broke through the upper short - term pressure of 2180, with the short - term lower support at around 2135. The hourly - cycle strategy is to wait and see [47].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The agricultural products sector is generally weak. Soybean meal and live pigs have declined, and the prices of some varieties are expected to continue their downward trends or remain volatile at low levels, while cotton shows an upward trend [1]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Agricultural Products Sector Overview - The soybean sector is weak. Soybean meal prices have fallen to new lows due to sufficient imported soybeans, high crushing volumes, and high inventory, and the downward trend may continue. Live pig prices have dropped. With high inventory, there is a risk of concentrated slaughter at the end of the year. Although demand has increased, the supply still exceeds demand, and prices are expected to remain volatile at low levels [1]. 3.2 Variety Strategy Tracking 3.2.1 Soybean Meal - The main 2605 contract of soybean meal continues to decline, affected by the fall of US soybeans, sufficient domestic soybean supply, and high - inventory pressure. From January to November this year, China's imported soybean volume reached 103.79 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 6.9%. Technically, it is weak, and the strategy is to look for resistance levels to place light short positions [2]. 3.2.2 Rapeseed Oil - The main 2605 contract of rapeseed oil continues to decline, pressured by the expectation of improved supply. Australian rapeseed is about to enter the crushing process after arrival, and there are rumors that COFCO is inquiring about distant - month Canadian rapeseed. Technically, it is weak, and the strategy is to hold light short positions [3]. 3.2.3 Live Pigs - The main 2603 contract of live pigs reverses and declines, returning to the low - level range. High inventory, high selling willingness of farmers, and the risk of concentrated supply at the end of the year, along with substitute products diverting some consumption, lead to the decline. The strategy is to close long positions and conduct short - term trading [6]. 3.2.4 Sugar - The main 2605 contract of Zhengzhou sugar continues to decline, affected by the seasonal supply pressure of new sugar. Overseas, the production of major sugar - producing countries is expected to increase. Domestically, the southern sugarcane crushing is in full swing. Technically, it is weak, and the strategy is to hold light short positions [9]. 3.2.5 Cotton - The main 2605 contract of cotton fluctuates upward and remains at a high level, supported by demand. From January to November this year, cotton imports decreased by 64% year - on - year. The sales rate has increased significantly, and downstream consumption is strong. Technically, it is strong, and the strategy is to place long positions on dips [12]. 3.2.6 Eggs - The main 2602 contract of eggs continues to decline, pressured by sufficient supply. The egg - laying hen inventory is high, and demand is weak. Technically, it is weak, and the strategy is to hold light short positions [13][15].

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Ratings - No industry investment ratings are provided in the report. 2. Report Core Views - The report analyzes the market trends, core logics, technical aspects, and provides trading strategies for three commodities: lithium carbonate, polysilicon, and industrial silicon. It also mentions potential influencing factors and trading opportunities for each commodity [1][7][10]. 3. Summary by Commodity Lithium Carbonate - **Market Trend**: The lithium carbonate futures weakened today. The main 2605 contract closed at 106,160 yuan/ton, down 2.26% from the previous trading day's closing price [1]. - **Core Logic**: The weekly production and inventory data for lithium carbonate were released, showing a continued de - stocking pattern, but the de - stocking amplitude significantly narrowed. Since December, the inventory has decreased by 2000 - 3000 tons per week, but only 1044 tons this week, far lower than expected. The demand side still has some resilience, with domestic power and energy storage demand both increasing month - on - month in November. It is expected that domestic energy storage installations in 2026 may increase by over 60% year - on - year. The resumption progress of the Jianxiaowo lithium mine needs to be closely watched, as its resumption may drive the futures price down [1][2]. - **Technical Analysis**: The overall trading volume of lithium carbonate futures changed little today, with some reduction at the end of the session. It is still dominated by long positions. The 5 - minute cycle of the main 2605 contract is a red line, blue ribbon, and green ladder. The overnight 2 - hour cycle is still a strong red ladder line, with the long - short dividing water level at 97,720 yuan/ton [3]. - **Strategy Suggestion**: In the context of "strong reality, strong expectation", the operation should be mainly based on buying on dips. Intraday trading can refer to the Band Winner indicator in the 8:30 morning live broadcast [3]. Polysilicon - **Market Trend**: The polysilicon futures weakened today. The main 2605 contract closed at 59,300 yuan/ton, up 3.73% from the previous trading day's closing price [7]. - **Core Logic**: The market has a need for adjustment after continuous new highs since listing, driven by the establishment of a polysilicon platform company. However, from a policy perspective, the elimination of backward production capacity in the photovoltaic industry chain is still emphasized. The polysilicon output has decreased year - on - year for the first time since 2013, strengthening the expectation of price increase, and it is still considered strong [7]. - **Technical Analysis**: The overall trading volume of polysilicon futures decreased significantly today, and it is still dominated by long positions. There was an opportunity to intervene at 13:35 today with the "three - line resonance method" combined with a significant decline in trading volume. The 5 - minute cycle of the 2605 contract is a green line, blue ribbon, and green ladder, and the overnight 2 - hour cycle is still a strong red ladder line, with the long - short dividing water level at 59,300 yuan/ton [7]. - **Strategy Suggestion**: Polysilicon is still considered strong. Intraday trading can refer to the Band Winner indicator in the 8:30 morning live broadcast [7]. Industrial Silicon - **Market Trend**: The industrial silicon futures strengthened today. The 2605 contract closed at 8,645 yuan/ton, up 2.07% from the previous trading day's closing price [10]. - **Core Logic**: Affected by the macro - sentiment, domestic commodities generally rose today, with significant increases in precious metals and coking coal. Fundamentally, the current situation of weak supply and demand in the industrial silicon industry continues, and the industry inventory is at a three - year high, with the inventory - building pattern continuing. Some manufacturers have a strong price - holding mentality under continuous cost inversion, but the overall effect is average in the face of weak demand [10]. - **Technical Analysis**: The overall trading volume of industrial silicon futures has been continuously decreasing, and it has turned to be dominated by long positions. The downward driving force has weakened. The 5 - minute cycle of the 2605 contract is a green line, red ribbon, and red ladder, and the overnight 2 - hour cycle has turned into a strong red ladder line, with the long - short dividing water level at 8,230 yuan/ton [11][14]. - **Strategy Suggestion**: It is considered a rebound. Intraday trading can refer to the Band Winner indicator in the 8:30 morning live broadcast [14].

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content Core Viewpoints - Chemically, on Friday night, there was an abnormal rise with the general increase of domestic industrial products. Over the weekend, the National Development and Reform Commission emphasized the control of high - energy - consuming and high - emission projects and the rectification of involution - style competition. Super - oversold varieties in the chemical industry generally had a long - yang line with position reduction. Short - term attention should be paid to whether it will drive an hourly upward movement similar to the "anti - involution" expectation in July. For unilateral long positions, priority should be given to varieties that increased positions and rose today (PX, synthetic rubber). Crude oil is still weakly driven by supply - demand and macro factors recently, and it is necessary to wait for geopolitical drivers [2]. Summary by Directory (1) Crude Oil - Logic: Supply - demand and macro drivers have a weak impact on the market. The medium - term expectation of supply surplus remains the main market tone, but short - term supply and demand are still strong. The demand and operation of US refineries have both increased, and there is little short - term supply - demand contradiction. In terms of the macro aspect, the Federal Reserve cut interest rates as expected in December, but Powell hinted that the interest rate cut in January might be suspended. Instead of cutting interest rates, the Federal Reserve decided to expand the balance sheet to directly provide short - term market liquidity, and short - term macro risks are not large. Geopolitical factors are still the main short - term trading point. The judgment on the ceasefire between Russia and Ukraine is pessimistic. The market might have over - traded the optimistic expectation of the Russia - Ukraine ceasefire at the end of November, and there is an upward - revision risk later. It is judged that the risk in the Caribbean region will escalate, waiting for a pulse - type upward movement after the event occurs (refer to the situation in Iran in July). Short - term bullish thinking (but difficult to trade due to geopolitical drivers), waiting for medium - term short - selling opportunities after a pulse - type upward movement in the medium term [3]. - Technical Analysis: The daily - level of crude oil shows a medium - term downward structure, and the hourly - level shows short - term oscillation. Today, it oscillated within the day. The hourly - level technical structure is downward, but it is regarded as an oscillation. The strategy is to wait and see in the hourly cycle [4][5]. (2) Styrene - Logic: Port inventories continued to decline, and the pressure of high inventories has been alleviated, but the year - on - year pressure is still relatively large. Maintaining a medium - term bearish view, in the short term, with the reduction of pressure and the news disturbance of the National Development and Reform Commission's emphasis on controlling high - energy - consuming and high - emission projects over the weekend, short - term expectation trading drives the market to rebound [9]. - Technical Analysis: Styrene shows a short - term oscillating structure at the hourly level. Today, it fell with position reduction, and the hourly - level structure is unclear. The strategy is to wait and see at the hourly level [9]. (3) Rubber - Logic: There is still no major contradiction in rubber in the short term. The scale of the Thailand - Cambodia conflict this time is larger than that in July, but it is still limited to the disputed area far from the main rubber - producing areas of the two countries, and the actual impact on supply is limited. There is still a lack of major contradictions in the supply - demand aspect of rubber itself, and it can be regarded as an oscillation [10]. - Technical Analysis: Rubber shows a medium - term downward structure at the daily level and a short - term oscillating structure at the hourly level. Today, it oscillated within the day, and the hourly - level structure is unclear. The strategy is to wait and see in the hourly cycle [10]. (4) Synthetic Rubber - Logic: The core logic of synthetic rubber is still guided by the raw material butadiene. The raw material butadiene replenished inventory due to the high profits of downstream synthetic rubber. The high - level port inventory has decreased significantly by nearly 13% for two consecutive weeks. At the same time, the Asian butadiene operation rate has declined slightly, and its own supply - demand has improved in the short term, temporarily reducing the cost pressure on synthetic rubber. The short - term strengthening of the raw material butadiene may drive synthetic rubber to have an hourly - level upward market [12]. - Technical Analysis: It shows a medium - term downward structure at the daily level and a short - term upward structure at the hourly level. Today, it increased positions and broke through the key pressure of 10,850. The hourly - cycle structure turned bullish, and the short - term support is at the 10,590 line. The strategy is to prepare for low - buying in the hourly cycle, and you can start from the 15 - minute small cycle (look for opportunities when the 15 - minute correction does not break 10,730 and then there is a positive - line reversal) [12][15]. (5) PX - Logic: There are no new capacity investment plans for PX plants in the next six months, and there are maintenance plans for multiple plants in the second quarter of next year. The medium - term supply pressure is not large. Currently, the downstream PTA still maintains a relatively high operation rate, but with the increase of PTA plant maintenance and the impact of the polyester off - season, the demand expectation has weakened. The overall supply - demand is still in a relatively balanced state. In addition to its own supply - demand, two aspects should be mainly concerned. On the one hand, the cost - end crude oil has been weak recently, and attention should be paid to when the geopolitical drivers brought by the unexpected Russia - Ukraine ceasefire plan and the possible escalation of the situation in Venezuela will appear. On the other hand, the National Development and Reform Commission mentioned again over the weekend to control high - energy - consuming and high - emission projects, and PX is among them. Although it is an old topic, domestic varieties had abnormal movements on Friday night, and it may be traded in the short term (next week) to drive the market upward. At the same time, it was observed that the PX monthly spread structure strengthened again last week, indicating that the market may end the correction. The short - term bullish thinking is still maintained [17][19]. - Technical Analysis: PX shows a short - term upward structure at the hourly level. Today, it increased positions, rushed up, and then pulled back slightly at the end of the session. The short - term upward structure remains unchanged. The standard support at the hourly level is at the 6,700 line, and the 15 - minute level has turned bullish again. The strategy is to hold long positions at the hourly level, with the stop - loss reference at the 6,700 line. Hold long positions in the 15 - minute cycle, with the stop - loss reference at the 6,740 line of the 15 - minute closing price [19]. (6) PTA - Logic: The polyester demand is in the off - season and faces a seasonal decline. There is a slight pressure on PTA due to short - term inventory accumulation, but the profit of upstream PX is relatively high, and the expectation of PTA supply decline is not large. In the short term, it mainly follows the cost PX [22]. - Technical Analysis: PTA shows a short - term upward structure at the hourly level. Today, it rushed up and then pulled back slightly at the end of the session. The volume cooperation is weaker than that of PX. The short - term upward structure remains unchanged. The support at the hourly level is at the 4,620 line (01 contract). The strategy is to still hold long positions at the hourly level, with the stop - loss reference at the 4,620 line (01 contract) [22]. (7) PP - Logic: The fundamental loose pattern of PP - plastics continues, but after the market was super - oversold, combined with the news disturbance of the National Development and Reform Commission's emphasis on controlling high - energy - consuming and high - emission projects over the weekend, short - term expectation trading drives the market to rebound [23]. - Technical Analysis: The short - term downward structure of PP at the hourly level may come to an end. Today, it had a long - yang line with position reduction and heavy volume, and the hourly closing price stood above the short - term pressure of 6,180. The hourly - level decline may end. The strategy is to wait and see in the hourly cycle [23][25]. (8) Methanol - Logic: The port inventory flows to the inland, maintaining continuous inventory reduction, but the downstream MTO maintenance has appeared, and the expectation is still weak. In addition to supply - demand, the National Development and Reform Commission emphasized the control of high - energy - consuming and high - emission projects and the rectification of involution - style competition over the weekend. Domestic industrial products had a general increase on Friday night, and the methanol market may rebound following the sentiment in the short term [27]. - Technical Analysis: Methanol shows a medium - term downward and short - term downward structure at the daily level. It is regarded as a rebound today. The short - term pressure above the 05 contract is at the 2,150 line. The strategy is to wait and see in the hourly cycle [27]. (9) PVC - Logic: The supply - demand aspect still has a pattern of high supply, weak demand, and high inventory, but the current valuation is low and there is no value in chasing short positions. At the same time, the National Development and Reform Commission emphasized the control of high - energy - consuming and high - emission projects over the weekend, and PVC is also among them. In the short term, it may be traded to drive the market to rebound [30]. - Technical Analysis: PVC shows a medium - term downward structure at the daily level, and the short - term downward structure at the hourly level may come to an end. Today, there was a huge long - yang line with position reduction and heavy volume, and the market showed obvious signs of short - sellers leaving. At the same time, technically, it stood above the short - term pressure of 4,270. The hourly - level decline may end. The strategy is to wait and see in the hourly cycle, and in the 15 - minute small cycle, you can look for opportunities to try long positions after a pullback and then an increase in positions and a positive - line reversal [30]. (10) Ethylene Glycol - Logic: The losses of ethylene glycol plants have expanded, and the maintenance plans have increased. The domestic supply pressure is expected to be alleviated, but the port inventory is still accumulating, and the increase in port pre - arrivals continues to put pressure on the market fundamentals. However, the National Development and Reform Commission emphasized the control of high - energy - consuming and high - emission projects over the weekend, and in the short term, it may be traded to drive the market to rebound. In the short term, ethylene glycol may run weakly in an oscillating manner [32][33]. - Technical Analysis: EG shows a medium - term downward structure at the daily level and a downward structure at the hourly level. Today, it had a long - yang line with position reduction and heavy volume for a rebound, but it has not yet stood above the short - term pressure of 3,700. The strategy is to wait and see in the hourly cycle [33]. (11) Plastic - Logic: The fundamental loose pattern of PP - plastics continues, but after the market was super - oversold, combined with the news disturbance of the National Development and Reform Commission's emphasis on controlling high - energy - consuming and high - emission projects over the weekend, short - term expectation trading drives the market to rebound [34]. - Technical Analysis: Plastic shows a medium - term downward structure at the daily level and a downward structure at the hourly level. Today, it had a long - yang line with position reduction and heavy volume, but it has not yet stood above the short - term pressure of 6,550. The strategy is to wait and see in the hourly cycle [34]. (12) Soda Ash - Logic: The pattern of high supply and high inventory of soda ash continues. Although the inventory has decreased continuously in the past two weeks, the inventory reduction speed has slowed down significantly. The short - term inventory pressure has improved, but there is no reversal driver for the medium - term fundamentals, and the cost - performance of continuing to hold unilateral short positions has decreased. The National Development and Reform Commission emphasized the control of high - energy - consuming and high - emission projects over the weekend, and soda ash is also among them. In the short term, it may be traded to drive the market to rebound. The remaining short positions established in August can stop profit and exit [38]. - Technical Analysis: The short - term downward structure of soda ash at the hourly level may come to an end. Today, it had a long - yang line with heavy volume and position reduction, and the hourly price stood above the short - term pressure of 1,120. The short - term decline may end. For the unilateral strategy, stop profit for the remaining short positions at the hourly cycle established in August [38]. (13) Caustic Soda - Logic: The pattern of high supply and high inventory remains unchanged. It is the off - season for traditional downstream demand. With the decline of the alumina operation rate due to losses, the demand for alumina has weakened. The supply - demand drive is still downward without a reversal, but there is no space for chasing short positions in the current market. The National Development and Reform Commission emphasized the control of high - energy - consuming and high - emission projects over the weekend, and caustic soda is also among them. In the short term, it may be traded to drive the market to rebound [42]. - Technical Analysis: Caustic soda shows a downward structure at the hourly level. Today, it had a long - yang line with heavy volume and position reduction, and the hourly price tested the short - term pressure of 2,180 but has not effectively stood above it. The strategy is to wait and see in the hourly cycle [42].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant information provided 2. Core View of the Report - The cotton futures price has risen significantly due to strong downstream demand, high spinning mill operating rates, improved Sino - US economic and trade relations, and expected improvement in textile exports. The rapeseed oil price has declined as Australian rapeseed arrivals may increase supply, and the weakness of related palm oil has also dragged it down. The egg price has a limited rebound due to high inventory and weak terminal demand. The soybean meal shows a near - strong and far - weak trend. The hog price has limited rebound due to sufficient supply. The sugar price continues to fall due to the pressure of new sugar listing [1] 3. Summary by Related Catalogs 3.1 Agricultural Product Sector Overview - Cotton futures prices have risen significantly, with downstream demand strong and spinning mills having high operating rates. The improvement in Sino - US economic and trade relations has improved the export expectations of textiles, and the cotton main contract has broken through the 14,000 integer mark, with the upward space opened. Rapeseed oil has declined as Australian rapeseed arrivals may lead to increased supply, and the weakness of related palm oil has also dragged it down [1] 3.2 Variety Strategy Tracking 3.2.1 Cotton - The focus is on the significant rise of cotton. The main 2605 contract has broken through 14,000, opening the upward space. Supported by strong demand, as of December 4, the national cotton sales rate was 37.3%, a year - on - year increase of 21.9 percentage points. Xinjiang's industrial policy may reduce the cotton planting area by about 10% next year. Technically, it is strong, and the strategy is to continue to go long on dips [2] 3.2.2 Rapeseed Oil - The focus is on the significant decline of rapeseed oil. The main 2605 contract has fallen significantly. Although the customs has tightened the inspection of non - genetically modified rapeseed oil imports, the impact on actual supply and demand is limited. The arrival of Australian rapeseed will increase supply, and overseas production is abundant. Palm oil is also weak. Technically, it is weak, and the strategy is to lightly short with a stop - loss reference of the 5 - day moving average at 9233 [3] 3.2.3 Egg - The focus is on the low - level rebound of eggs. The main 2602 contract has rebounded but has not changed the downward trend. The egg production is sufficient, the inventory consumption is the main task at all links, and the terminal demand support is weak. Technically, it is still weak, and the strategy is to lightly short at the resistance level [5] 3.2.4 Soybean Meal - The focus is on the near - strong and far - weak trend of soybean meal. The January contract is strong, but the main 2605 contract is weak. Although there are rumors about the extension of soybean customs clearance time, the domestic soybean supply is sufficient, and the oil mill's high - pressure production keeps the soybean meal inventory high. Technically, it is weak, and the strategy is to lightly short at the resistance level [8] 3.2.5 Hog - The focus is on the low - level fluctuation of hogs. The main 2603 contract has limited rebound and continues to move sideways. Although the cold weather has increased consumer demand, the high inventory and the expected concentrated slaughter at the end of the year limit the rebound space. The strategy is to conduct short - term trading [9][11] 3.2.6 Sugar - The focus is on the continued decline of sugar. The main 2605 contract has fallen after a brief rise. With the progress of sugar cane crushing in Guangxi and Yunnan, the new sugar supply pressure is increasing. Technically, it is weak, and the strategy is to lightly short with a resistance level at 5227 [12]