Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The crude oil market is in a state of oscillation, lacking clear short - term drivers. The geopolitical factor, especially the situation in the Caribbean and potential US actions against Venezuela, may become the short - term main line [1][3]. - The strong performance of refined oil products in Europe and the US, with the strengthening of gasoline and diesel cracking spreads, has led to the emergence of the blending oil logic, which may drive the upward movement of aromatic hydrocarbon products such as styrene, pure benzene, and polyester [1]. - Some energy - chemical products are running independently of crude oil. For example, methanol is still under pressure from high inventory, but there is a mid - term long - making logic [1]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs (1) Crude Oil - **Logic**: The recent large - scale fluctuations in crude oil were caused by the continuous strengthening of refined oil products in Europe and the US and the weakening expectations in the EIA monthly report. Currently, the short - term drivers have not changed significantly. Although the inventory is increasing, the market reaction is flat. The supply shortage of gasoline and diesel may gradually improve. The geopolitical situation in the Caribbean is heating up, and the potential US action against Venezuela has not been priced in the market [3]. - **Technical Analysis**: The daily - level shows a mid - term downward structure, and the hourly - level shows a short - term oscillation structure. The strategy is to wait and see in the hourly cycle [3]. (2) Styrene - **Logic**: The recent strong performance of styrene is due to the improvement of short - term supply - demand after device maintenance and the blending oil logic driven by the strong performance of refined oil products in Europe and the US. However, there is a mid - term oversupply and seasonal inventory accumulation problem [5][8]. - **Technical Analysis**: The hourly - level shows a short - term upward structure. The strategy is to wait and see in the hourly level and look for opportunities to cover short positions after the daily - level rebound [8]. (3) Rubber - **Logic**: The short - term contradiction of rubber is not prominent. The seasonal inventory accumulation in the peak season has just started, and the focus is on the subsequent inventory accumulation rate [10]. - **Technical Analysis**: The daily - level shows a mid - term downward structure, and the hourly - level shows a short - term upward structure. The strategy is to hold long positions in the hourly cycle with a stop - loss at 15200 [10]. (4) Synthetic Rubber - **Logic**: The contradiction of synthetic rubber is not significant. The focus is on the driving force from the cost side of butadiene, which also faces the problem of potential inventory swelling [13]. - **Technical Analysis**: The daily - level shows a mid - term downward structure, and the hourly - level shows a short - term upward structure. The strategy is to wait and see in the hourly cycle [13]. (5) PX - **Logic**: The contradiction in the polyester industry is not large. After the hype of production reduction news fades, the focus is on whether the blending oil logic can drive the upward movement. Also, pay attention to the geopolitical risks in the Caribbean [17]. - **Technical Analysis**: The hourly - level shows a short - term upward structure. The strategy is to hold long positions in the hourly level with a stop - profit at 6745 [17]. (6) PTA - **Logic**: Similar to PX, the focus is on the blending oil logic and geopolitical risks in the Caribbean after the weakening of production reduction expectations [20]. - **Technical Analysis**: The hourly - level shows a short - term upward structure. The strategy is to hold long positions in the hourly level with a stop - profit at 4655 [20]. (7) PP - **Logic**: High supply pressure continues due to the commissioning of Guangxi Petrochemical and the increase in PP operation rate, and downstream demand is weak. The focus is on the cost - side driving force of crude oil [24]. - **Technical Analysis**: The hourly - level shows a short - term downward structure. The strategy is to wait and see in the hourly cycle [24]. (8) Methanol - **Logic**: The large - scale shutdown of Iranian devices has not occurred, and the inventory in ports is still at a high level, which suppresses the market. However, the domestic supply - demand structure has improved. The long - making opportunity depends on the implementation of Iranian gas restrictions and the market breaking through the pressure level. The geopolitical factor may also provide a long - making opportunity [26][28]. - **Technical Analysis**: The daily - level and short - term show a downward structure. The strategy is to hold short positions in the hourly cycle with a stop - profit at 2040 or take the initiative to stop profit. Try to go long after the short - term structure reverses [28]. (9) PVC - **Logic**: High supply and high inventory continue, and the demand from the real - estate industry is weak, so there is no upward driving force [30]. - **Technical Analysis**: The daily - level shows a mid - term downward structure, and the hourly - level shows a short - term downward structure. The strategy is to hold short positions in the hourly cycle [32]. (10) Ethylene Glycol - **Logic**: Supply is at a high level, and the supply pressure increases with new capacity. Pay attention to short - term geopolitical risks in crude oil [33]. - **Technical Analysis**: The daily - level and hourly - level show a downward structure. The strategy is to wait and see in the hourly cycle [33]. (11) Plastic - **Logic**: There is a pattern of high supply, weak demand, and inventory accumulation. Pay attention to short - term geopolitical risks in crude oil [36]. - **Technical Analysis**: The daily - level shows a mid - term downward structure, and the hourly - level shows an oscillation structure. The strategy is to wait and see in the hourly cycle [36]. (12) Soda Ash - **Logic**: The pattern of high supply and high inventory continues, and the fundamental downward driving force remains unchanged [38]. - **Technical Analysis**: The hourly - level shows a downward structure. The strategy is to hold the remaining short positions in the hourly cycle with a stop - profit at 1195 [41]. (13) Caustic Soda - **Logic**: High supply pressure persists due to new capacity and high operation rate, and demand is weak. There is no upward driving force in supply - demand [42]. - **Technical Analysis**: The hourly - level shows a downward structure. The strategy is to wait and see in the hourly cycle [42].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core View of the Report The agricultural product sector shows mixed trends. Palm oil and soybean oil have declined significantly, while eggs have rebounded. Other products such as peanuts, sugar, and hogs continue to fall, apples are strong, dates fluctuate narrowly at low levels, and cotton has limited rebounds and fluctuates at low levels [1]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs 3.1 Agricultural Product Sector Overview - Palm oil and soybean oil have declined sharply due to the possible delay of the US government's plan to restrict the import of raw materials for bio - fuel production, which pushed down CBOT soybean oil and led to the decline of palm oil. The trend of oils has weakened [1]. - Eggs have rebounded at low levels, but the weak supply - demand pattern has not been reversed, so the rebound space may be limited [1]. - Soybean meal has declined due to sufficient imported soybeans, high crushing volume, and rising inventory, and the weakness may continue [1]. 3.2 Variety Strategy Tracking 3.2.1 Palm Oil - The main 2601 contracts of Dalian palm oil and soybean oil have fallen sharply, affected by the decline of US soybean oil and crude oil. The possible delay of the US government's plan to restrict bio - fuel raw material imports weakened the previous positive proposal of the US Environmental Protection Agency, and the increase in palm oil production and decline in exports in Malaysia in the first half of November also pressured the price [2]. - The main 2601 contract of palm oil failed to break through, fell back to the previous consolidation range, and below the moving - average system. The strategy is to close long positions and conduct short - term trading [2]. 3.2.2 Eggs - The main 2601 contract of eggs has rebounded significantly at low levels, boosted by technical buying. The egg - laying hen inventory is still high, the elimination of old hens continues but the speed slows down, and the demand lacks festival stimulation [3]. - The main 2601 contract of eggs has rebounded from the low level, recovered the decline since the beginning of this week, and stood above the 5 - day moving average. The strategy is to close short positions and conduct short - term trading [3]. 3.2.3 Peanuts - The main 2601 contract of peanuts continued to fall after the sharp decline the previous day. The effective supply in the producing areas has not been fully released, and the demand is sluggish [6]. - The main 2601 contract of peanuts continues the downward trend, and the strategy is to short with a light position [6]. 3.2.4 Sugar - The main 2601 contract of Zhengzhou sugar continued to fall to a new low. Globally, the sugar production in Brazil is strong, and the production in the Northern Hemisphere is also good. In China, the import volume in October was 750,000 tons, a year - on - year increase of 39%, and the cumulative import volume from January to October was 3.9 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 14%. The seasonal supply increase also pressured the price [7][9]. - The main 2601 contract of Zhengzhou sugar continues to fall to a new low, and the technical situation is weak. The strategy is to continue shorting with a light position [9]. 3.2.5 Hogs - The main 2601 contract of hogs continued to decline after breaking through the support level. The supply pressure is large as the inventory of breeding sows is still high, and the large - scale pig enterprises plan to have a high slaughter volume in November. The demand in the traditional peak season is insufficient [10]. - The main 2601 contract of hogs continues the downward trend, hitting a new low of 11,355. The strategy is to continue holding short positions with a light position [10]. 3.2.6 Soybean Meal - The main 2601 contract of soybean meal broke below the 20 - day moving average. The imported soybeans are sufficient, the oil mills have high crushing and operating rates, and the soybean meal inventory is close to one million tons. The downstream feed enterprises have general procurement [12]. - The main 2601 contract of soybean meal has entered a downward trend, and the strategy is to short with a light position [12]. 3.2.7 Apples - The main 2601 contract of apples is strong. The apple storage work in Shandong and Shaanxi has basically ended, and the national cold - storage inventory is 7.7316 million tons as of November 19, still at a relatively low level in recent years. The demand may improve at the end of the year [15]. - The main 2601 contract of apples has risen at a high level and re - stood above the moving - average system. The strategy is to hold long positions [15]. 3.2.8 Dates - The main 2601 contract of dates fluctuates narrowly at low levels. The Xinjiang producing area adheres to the principle of high - quality and high - price, but most enterprises are reluctant to purchase on a large scale. The old - date inventory is slowly digested, and the new - date listing and high old - date inventory limit the rebound space [16]. - The main 2601 contract of dates has limited rebounds. The strategy is to conduct short - term short - biased trading and pay attention to whether it can break through the resistance of the 10 - day moving average [18]. 3.2.9 Cotton - The main 2601 contract of cotton has limited rebounds and fluctuates at low levels. The cotton picking in Xinjiang is nearly finished, the new - cotton processing volume has increased significantly year - on - year, and the commercial inventory has been growing. The textile industry is in the off - season, and the new orders are limited [19]. - The main 2601 contract of cotton has limited rebounds and fluctuates at low levels. The strategy is to conduct short - term trading and pay attention to whether it can overcome the resistance of the medium - term moving average [19].

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Report's Core View - The lithium carbonate market is in a "strong reality, strong expectation" situation, with demand - driven growth and short - term price fluctuations mainly due to capital. Industrial silicon and polycrystalline silicon markets are affected by factors such as commodity price declines and the weakening of previous positive news, with both facing supply - demand imbalances and high inventories [1][8][10]. Summary by Related Catalogs Lithium Carbonate - **Market Trend**: The lithium carbonate futures contract 2601 dropped 0.32% to 98,980 yuan/ton compared to the previous trading day's closing price, with the total open interest exceeding one million lots [1]. - **Core Logic**: The core driver is demand expectation. The demand for lithium carbonate in power batteries and energy storage is strong. There is a rush to install power cells in the new energy vehicle market due to the phased - out of new energy vehicle purchase tax exemption policies, and the penetration rate of new energy vehicles is expected to reach about 60% from November to December. The energy - storage battery installation is expected to grow by over 40% in 2026. The weekly inventory reduction also confirms strong demand. Recently, capital has become the main driver of price [1]. - **Technical Analysis**: The overall open interest of lithium carbonate futures declined. The 2601 contract was still under bullish control, but there was a large - scale reduction of positions in the afternoon, causing the price to correct. The 5 - minute cycle is expected to fluctuate in the short term, while the 2 - hour cycle remains bullish, with the long - short dividing line at 87,220 yuan/ton [1]. - **Strategy Suggestion**: In the context of "strong reality, strong expectation", the operation strategy is to go long on dips. Avoid contrarian trading when the futures price corrects [2]. Industrial Silicon - **Market Trend**: The industrial silicon futures contract 2601 dropped 3.35% to 9,075 yuan/ton compared to the previous trading day's closing price [8]. - **Core Logic**: The impact of the news of silicone joint price - support on industrial silicon futures has gradually faded. The overall commodity decline and the weak fundamental situation of industrial silicon, including weak supply - demand and high inventory, have led to continued pressure on the short - term market [8]. - **Technical Analysis**: The overall open interest of industrial silicon futures decreased. The 2601 contract continued to decline with position reduction, indicating bullish control. There was an entry opportunity using the "Three - Line Resonance Method" at 10:35, with a profit - loss ratio of 1:1 to less than 1:2. The 5 - minute cycle shows a short - term weak trend, while the 2 - hour cycle remains bullish, with the long - short dividing line at 8,945 yuan/ton [8]. - **Strategy Suggestion**: Due to the large price fluctuations affected by policies and news, it is recommended to wait and see. Intraday operations can refer to the 8:30 morning live - broadcast and the Band Winner indicator [8]. - **Concerns**: The planned 30% production reduction of silicone starting from December 1st, if implemented successfully, will be a significant negative factor for industrial silicon. There are also more winter - related disturbing factors such as environmental protection production restrictions [8]. Polycrystalline Silicon - **Market Trend**: The polycrystalline silicon futures contract 2601 dropped 3.98% to 52,450 yuan/ton compared to the previous trading day's closing price [10]. - **Core Logic**: The positive impact of industrial silicon on polycrystalline silicon yesterday has faded, and combined with the overall commodity decline, polycrystalline silicon has declined. The supply - demand situation of polycrystalline silicon has not changed much, with weak supply - demand and lack of driving forces. The production in November is expected to be 127,000 tons, and the inventory has slightly increased recently [10][13]. - **Technical Analysis**: The overall open interest of polycrystalline silicon futures slightly increased. The 2601 contract saw bulls taking profits in the morning, and then it turned to bearish control with a large - scale increase in positions in the afternoon. There was an entry opportunity using the "First K Breakthrough Method" at 13:35, with a profit - loss ratio of 1:2. The 5 - minute cycle shows a weak trend, while the 2 - hour cycle remains bullish, with the long - short dividing line at 52,210 yuan/ton [13]. - **Strategy Suggestion**: Due to large price fluctuations affected by policies and news and still being in the oscillation range in the 2 - hour cycle, it is recommended to wait and see. Intraday operations can refer to the 8:30 morning live - broadcast and the Band Winner indicator [13].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided 2. Core View of the Report - Crude oil is still in a state of waiting for a change in one of the three drivers (macro, supply - demand, and geopolitics) to form a short - term logic. Geopolitical drivers may become the short - term main line, especially the situation in the Caribbean [1][3]. - The strength of refined oil products in Europe and the United States has led to the emergence of the blending oil logic, which may have a positive impact on aromatic hydrocarbon products such as styrene, pure benzene, and polyester [1]. - Different energy and chemical products have different supply - demand situations and price trends, and corresponding trading strategies are proposed based on technical analysis [5][8][10] 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Crude Oil - **Logic**: The sharp fluctuations last week were due to the strength of refined oil products in Europe and the United States and the weakening expectations in the EIA monthly report. Currently, the short - term drivers have not changed significantly. The supply - demand situation may gradually improve, but geopolitical risks in the Caribbean are worthy of attention. Wait for a high - shorting opportunity after the event [3]. - **Technical Analysis**: The daily - level is in a medium - term downward structure, and the hourly - level is in a short - term oscillating structure. Maintain an oscillating view, and the strategy is to wait and see on the hourly cycle [3]. Styrene - **Logic**: The recent strength is due to short - term supply - demand improvement from device maintenance and the blending oil logic. In the medium - term, there is a risk of over - supply and seasonal inventory accumulation. Pay attention to the geopolitical situation in the Caribbean [5][8]. - **Technical Analysis**: The hourly - level is in a short - term upward structure. Wait and see on the hourly level, and look for opportunities to cover short positions after the daily - level rebound [8]. Rubber - **Logic**: The short - term contradiction is not prominent. The seasonal inventory accumulation in the peak season has just started. Pay attention to the inventory accumulation rate [10]. - **Technical Analysis**: The daily - level is in a medium - term downward structure, and the hourly - level is in a short - term upward structure. Hold long positions on the hourly cycle, with a stop - loss reference of 15,200 [10]. Synthetic Rubber - **Logic**: Focus on the cost - end butadiene drive. Butadiene has a high supply and may face inventory pressure in the medium - term [13]. - **Technical Analysis**: The daily - level is in a medium - term downward structure, and the hourly - level is in a short - term upward structure. Wait and see on the hourly cycle [13]. PX - **Logic**: Pay attention to whether the blending oil logic can drive the price up after the hype of polyester industry chain production cuts fades. Also, focus on geopolitical risks in the Caribbean [17]. - **Technical Analysis**: The hourly - level is in a short - term upward structure. Hold long positions on the hourly level, with a take - profit reference of 6,745 [17]. PTA - **Logic**: Similar to PX, pay attention to the blending oil logic and Caribbean geopolitical risks [20]. - **Technical Analysis**: The hourly - level is in a short - term upward structure. Hold long positions on the hourly level, with a take - profit reference of 4,655 [20]. PP - **Logic**: High supply pressure continues, and downstream demand is weak. Pay attention to the cost - end crude oil drive [24]. - **Technical Analysis**: The hourly - level is in a short - term downward structure. Wait and see on the hourly cycle [24]. Methanol - **Logic**: High port inventory suppresses the price, but the domestic supply - demand structure is improving. Wait for a long - position opportunity after the Iranian gas restriction and the price breaks through the pressure level. Also, pay attention to Caribbean geopolitical risks [26][28]. - **Technical Analysis**: The daily - level and short - term are in a downward structure. Hold short positions on the hourly cycle with a take - profit of 2,040, or take the initiative to stop the profit. Look for long - position opportunities after the price breaks through 2,040 [28]. PVC - **Logic**: High supply and high inventory continue, and there is no hope for demand. It is difficult to have an upward drive [30]. - **Technical Analysis**: The daily - level is in a medium - term downward structure, and the hourly - level is in a short - term downward structure. Hold short positions on the hourly cycle [32]. Ethylene Glycol - **Logic**: High supply pressure increases with new capacity. Be vigilant against short - term geopolitical risks in crude oil [33]. - **Technical Analysis**: The daily - level is in a medium - term downward structure, and the hourly - level is in a downward structure. Wait and see on the hourly cycle [33]. Plastic - **Logic**: High supply and weak demand lead to inventory accumulation. Be vigilant against short - term geopolitical risks in crude oil [36]. - **Technical Analysis**: The daily - level is in a medium - term downward structure, and the hourly - level is in an oscillating structure. Wait and see on the hourly cycle [36]. Soda Ash - **Logic**: The high - supply and high - inventory pattern continues, and the downward drive remains [38]. - **Technical Analysis**: The hourly - level is in a downward structure. Hold the remaining short positions on the hourly cycle with a stop - profit at 1,245 [41]. Caustic Soda - **Logic**: High supply pressure and weak demand. There is no upward drive in supply - demand [43]. - **Technical Analysis**: The hourly - level is in a downward structure. Wait and see on the hourly cycle [43].

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. 2. Report's Core View - The current market for lithium carbonate, industrial silicon, and polysilicon futures shows significant price fluctuations. The lithium carbonate market is driven by strong demand expectations, while the industrial silicon and polysilicon markets are influenced by policy and news. [1][9][12] 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Lithium Carbonate - **Market Trend**: The lithium carbonate futures rose strongly again today. The main 2601 contract increased by 6.18% compared to the previous trading day's closing price, reaching 99,300 yuan/ton, and the trading volume reached a record high. [1] - **Core Logic**: The current market is driven by demand expectations. The demand for lithium carbonate in power batteries and energy storage is strong. The penetration rate of new energy vehicles is expected to rise to about 60% in November - December, and the energy - storage battery installation growth rate in 2026 is expected to exceed 40%. Recently, the capital has also accelerated the upward trend. [1] - **Technical Analysis**: The overall trading volume of lithium carbonate futures increased significantly. The 5 - minute and 2 - hour cycle charts show a strong trend, with a long - short dividing line at 86,580 yuan/ton. [1] - **Strategy Suggestion**: In the context of "strong reality and strong expectation", the operation should be mainly based on buying on dips. Do not trade against the trend when the futures price retraces. [2] Industrial Silicon - **Market Trend**: The industrial silicon futures rose strongly after the lunch break. The main 2601 contract increased by 4.57% compared to the previous trading day's closing price, reaching 9,390 yuan/ton, hitting the highest level since July 30. [9] - **Core Logic**: Affected by the information from the meeting of the actual controller of the silicone monomer factory and the price increase of the silicone spot, the main 2601 contract of industrial silicon rose sharply. However, the current fundamental supply - demand of industrial silicon is weak, and the industry inventory is high. [9] - **Technical Analysis**: The overall trading volume of industrial silicon futures increased significantly. The 5 - minute and 2 - hour cycle charts show a strong trend, with a long - short dividing line at 8,945 yuan/ton. [9] - **Strategy Suggestion**: Affected by policies and news, the price of industrial silicon futures fluctuates greatly. It is recommended to wait and see. You can refer to the Band Winner indicator in the 8:30 morning live broadcast. [9] Polysilicon - **Market Trend**: The polysilicon futures followed the upward trend of industrial silicon and rose rapidly after the lunch break. The main 2601 contract increased by 4.63% compared to the previous trading day's closing price, reaching 54,625 yuan/ton. [12] - **Core Logic**: The polysilicon followed the upward trend of industrial silicon. The fundamental supply - demand of polysilicon is weak, and the main focus is on the establishment of the state - reserve platform and relevant announcements of polysilicon enterprises. The production in November is expected to be 127,000 tons, and the inventory has slightly increased recently. [12][15] - **Technical Analysis**: The overall trading volume of polysilicon futures decreased. The 5 - minute and 2 - hour cycle charts show a strong trend, with a long - short dividing line at 52,210 yuan/ton. [15] - **Strategy Suggestion**: Affected by policies and news, the price of polysilicon futures fluctuates greatly. It is recommended to wait and see. You can refer to the Band Winner indicator in the 8:30 morning live broadcast. [15]

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core View of the Report On Wednesday, palm oil prices broke through and rose, driven by the positive impact of the US biodiesel policy and the sharp rise in CBOT soybean oil. Peanut prices dropped significantly due to expected supply improvement and weak demand. The prices of two types of meal remained weak, and this trend may continue. Additionally, sugar, pork, soybean meal, eggs, and jujube prices were falling, while apples were in high - level adjustment and cotton had a technical rebound [1]. Summary by Related Catalogs 1. Agricultural Products Sector Overview - Palm oil broke through and rose due to the positive US biodiesel policy and the sharp rise in CBOT soybean oil [1]. - Peanut prices dropped significantly because of expected supply improvement and weak demand [1]. - The prices of two types of meal were weak, with the increase in oil mill crushing volume and weak downstream demand [1]. 2. Variety Strategy Tracking (1) Palm Oil: Breakthrough and Uptrend - The US EPA proposed to set the 2026 biomass diesel blending target at 5.61 billion gallons, a 67% surge from 2025, which strongly supported soybean oil consumption and drove up palm oil prices. Malaysia's palm oil will enter the production - reduction season, and Indonesia will implement the B50 policy [2]. - The palm oil main contract 2601 broke through the recent sideways range and stood above the 20 - day moving average, suggesting an upward - opening space. The strategy is to go long with a light position on dips [2]. (2) Peanut: Sharp Decline - Due to busy farming and low temperatures, the supply of peanuts from Henan farmers was limited, but it is expected to increase after the farming season. The demand was generally low, with traders purchasing on - demand and oil mills not conducting large - scale acquisitions [3]. - The peanut main contract 2601 dropped significantly, breaking below the moving - average system and entering a downward trend. The strategy is to short with a light position at resistance levels [3]. (3) Sugar: Continuous Decline - Globally, Brazil's sugar production was strong, and the sugar production in the second half of October continued to grow. The harvest in the Northern Hemisphere's main producing countries started well, and India's sugar production increased year - on - year. In China, the import of sugar remained high, and the seasonal supply increased with the start of sugarcane crushing in Guangxi [7]. - The Zhengzhou sugar main contract 2601 continued to expand its downward space. The MACD formed a death cross and the green bars expanded. The strategy is to short with a light position [7]. (4) Pig: Narrow - Range Fluctuation at Low Level - The inventory of breeding sows was still higher than the normal level, and production efficiency improved, resulting in an over - capacity situation. The planned slaughter volume of large - scale pig enterprises in November remained high, and there was pressure from the release of additional supplies from secondary fattening. The demand during the traditional peak season did not meet expectations, and the cold - curing consumption was postponed due to the warm winter [8][10]. - The pig main contract 2601 fluctuated narrowly at a low level after a sharp decline, and the price continued to run below the moving - average system. The strategy is to short with a light position [10]. (5) Soybean Meal: Continuous Decline - The arrival of imported soybeans in China was sufficient, the oil mill operating rate increased to 66% this week, and the soybean crushing volume last week exceeded 2 million tons. The oil mill's soybean meal inventory was close to one million tons, and downstream feed enterprises' purchases were average [11]. - The soybean meal main contract 2601 continued to decline, testing the support of the 20 - day moving average. The strategy is to short with a light position [11]. (6) Apple: High - Level Adjustment - The cold - storage trading in the western apple - producing areas was basically stable, and the prices were flat. The demand for small apples in the Shandong producing area was active, and the prices were firm. The overall cold - storage inventory of apples was at a low level in recent years, and the supply of deliverable goods was expected to be tight [13]. - The apple main contract 2601 was in high - level adjustment, and the price was above the 10 - day moving average. The strategy is to hold long positions and pay attention to the support of the 10 - day moving average [13]. (7) Egg: Continuous Decline - The inventory of laying hens remained at a high level, resulting in sufficient supply. After Double 11, the sales of e - commerce and supermarkets declined, and the demand was weak. The elimination of old hens continued, but the growth rate of elimination slowed down, and the capacity reduction was slow [15]. - The egg main contract 2601 continued to decline, approaching the previous low. The MACD formed a death cross and the green bars expanded. The strategy is to short with a light position [15]. (8) Jujube: Limited Rebound, Low - Level Fluctuation - The main jujube - producing area in Xinjiang adhered to the principle of high - quality and high - price, but most enterprises were reluctant to make large - scale purchases. The inventory of old jujubes was slowly being digested, and the domestic sample - point inventory was much higher than that of last year. The market supply pressure was large, limiting the rebound space of jujube prices [18]. - The jujube main contract 2601 had a limited rebound and fluctuated at a low level. The short - term strategy is to short, paying attention to the resistance of the 10 - day moving average [18]. (9) Cotton: Technical Rebound - With the centralized listing of new cotton, the commercial inventory of cotton continued to grow, and the port inventory also increased with the arrival of foreign cotton. The textile industry was in the off - season, with weak domestic sales growth and limited new orders in the export market [19][21]. - The cotton main contract 2601 rebounded technically at a low level, driven by short - covering. The strategy is to close short positions and pay attention to the resistance of the medium - term moving average [21].

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints - The current core driver of lithium carbonate lies in the demand expectation, with strong demand in power batteries and energy storage batteries. The market is in an upward trend, but attention should be paid to the demand performance in the off - season next year and the resumption rhythm of the Jiaxiaowo lithium mine [1]. - The industrial silicon market shows a pattern of weak supply and demand, and the market is likely to maintain a volatile trend. Attention should be paid to the implementation of downstream "anti - involution" and winter disturbance factors [8]. - The polysilicon market has weak supply and demand and lacks driving forces. The main focus is on the establishment of the state - reserve platform and relevant announcements from polysilicon enterprises. The market is in a wide - range volatile pattern [10]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Lithium Carbonate - **Market Performance**: The lithium carbonate futures rose and then fell. The main 2601 contract decreased by 1.76% compared with the previous trading day's closing price, reaching 93,520 yuan/ton. The opening continued the previous day's rise, but then the high - rising sentiment declined, the trading volume decreased significantly, and the long - position funds left the market [1]. - **Demand Analysis**: In the power battery sector, due to the phase - out of the new energy vehicle purchase tax exemption policy in 2026, there is a rush to install power cells at the end of this year. It is expected that the penetration rate of new energy vehicles will increase to about 60% in November - December. In the energy storage battery sector, the market generally expects the installed capacity growth rate to exceed 40% in 2026 [1]. - **Technical Analysis**: The overall trading volume of lithium carbonate futures decreased significantly. The main 2601 contract decreased in price with reduced positions, and the long - position controlled the market. The 5 - minute cycle is expected to have a wide - range volatile operation, and the 2 - hour cycle is still relatively strong. The long - short dividing water level is 86,220 yuan/ton [2][3]. Industrial Silicon - **Market Performance**: The industrial silicon futures fluctuated weakly. The main 2601 contract decreased by 1.10% compared with the previous trading day's closing price, reaching 8,980 yuan/ton [8]. - **Supply - Demand Analysis**: The supply output decreased slightly, with continuous production cuts in the southwest region and mixed changes in the northwest region. The demand may further weaken, and the industry inventory is relatively high, showing a pattern of weak supply and demand [8]. - **Technical Analysis**: The overall trading volume of industrial silicon futures decreased. The main 2601 contract decreased in price with increased positions in the morning and then rebounded with reduced positions, indicating short - position control. The 5 - minute cycle is in a volatile operation, and the 2 - hour cycle is relatively weak. The long - short dividing water level is 9,225 yuan/ton [8]. Polysilicon - **Market Performance**: The polysilicon futures continued the volatile trend. The main 2601 contract decreased by 0.85% compared with the previous trading day's closing price, reaching 52,210 yuan/ton [10]. - **Supply - Demand Analysis**: In November, the production schedule of polysilicon decreased significantly, with an expected output of 116,300 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 15.36%. As of November 14, the factory inventory was 265,700 tons, a week - on - week increase of 5,900 tons, and the supply pressure still exists [10][13]. - **Technical Analysis**: The overall trading volume of polysilicon futures increased slightly. The main 2601 contract decreased in price with reduced positions, and the long - position controlled the market. The 5 - minute cycle is in a weak operation, and the 2 - hour cycle is approaching the red ladder line. The long - short dividing water level is 51,865 yuan/ton. The large - cycle shows a wide - range volatile pattern [13].

Report Summary 1. Industry Investment Rating No investment rating for the industry is provided in the report. 2. Core View On Tuesday, the agricultural by - products and soft commodities in the agricultural products sector showed a weak trend. Sugar prices dropped significantly due to increased imports and the start of the new sugarcane pressing season, and the downward trend is expected to continue. The hog futures price also broke through the support level, with supply exceeding demand. Other products such as soybean meal, eggs, and cotton are also under pressure, while apples maintain an upward trend, and palm oil fluctuates within a range [1]. 3. Summary by Variety (1) Sugar - Zhengzhou sugar main contract 2601 continued to decline sharply after breaking through the support level. High sugar imports (750,000 tons in October, a 39% year - on - year increase; 3.9 million tons from January to October, a 14% year - on - year increase) and the start of the sugarcane pressing season in Guangxi increased supply pressure. The strategy is to continue to short with a light position [2]. (2) Hog - The main hog contract 2601 broke through the support level, with high supply (high inventory of breeding sows, high planned slaughter in November, and the release pressure of second - fattening) and weak demand (delayed curing consumption due to warm winter). The strategy is to continue to short with a light position [3]. (3) Soybean Meal - The main soybean meal contract 2601 rose first and then fell. Sufficient imports of soybeans, high operating rate of oil mills (66% this week), high inventory of soybean meal, and weak downstream demand led to price pressure. The strategy is to try shorting with a light position [5]. (4) Palm Oil - The main palm oil contract 2601 continued to fluctuate within a range. Malaysian exports decreased in the first half of November (down 10% - 15.5% month - on - month), while production increased (up 4.3% month - on - month), but the B50 plan in Indonesia and the approaching production reduction season provided support. The strategy is to wait for the price to break through the range or conduct short - term trading within the range (support at 8600, resistance at 8774) [8]. (5) Apple - The main apple contract 2601 fluctuated at a high level. High - quality apples in the western region and strong demand for small apples in Shandong, along with旺盛 export demand, supported the price. The overall inventory is at a low level (7.6424 million tons as of November 12, a 10.59% year - on - year decrease). The strategy is to go long with a light position on dips (support at 9323, resistance at 9500) [9][11]. (6) Egg - The main egg contract 2601 continued to decline. High egg - laying hen inventory, weak demand after Double 11, slow capacity reduction, and increased inventory led to price pressure. The strategy is to continue to short with a light position [12]. (7) Peanut - The main peanut contract 2601 rose first and then fell, with a volatile market. Loosened price - holding psychology of traders, slow supply progress in Henan, and weak demand from oil mills. The strategy is to close long positions and conduct short - term trading (support at 7900, resistance at 8000) [17]. (8) Red Date - The main red date contract 2601 rebounded at a low level. High inventory of old dates and new date listing increased supply pressure. The strategy is to close short positions and pay attention to the resistance at the 10 - day moving average (support at 9185, resistance at 9445) [19]. (9) Cotton - The main cotton contract 2601 continued to decline. Increased commercial inventory (up 15.26% month - on - month to 3.2824 million tons as of November 14), rising port inventory, and weak demand in the textile industry led to price pressure. The strategy is to short with a light position (support at 13300, resistance at 13460) [20].

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints - Crude oil continues to oscillate, lacking short - term drivers, with geopolitical drivers potentially becoming the short - term main line; some energy and chemical products operate independently of crude oil, and the blending logic may drive the upward movement of aromatic products; methanol has high inventory pressure but may have a mid - term long - making logic [1][3]. Summary by Category Crude Oil - **Logic**: Last week's large fluctuations were due to the continuous strengthening of European and American refined oil and the expected weakening in the EIA monthly report. Currently, short - term drivers have not changed significantly, and the supply - demand logic is not smooth. Geopolitical drivers are worthy of attention, and a short - selling opportunity may arise after the US military action against Venezuela [3]. - **Technical Analysis**: The daily - level is in a mid - term downward structure, and the hourly - level is in a short - term oscillating structure. The strategy is to wait and see on the hourly cycle [3]. Styrene - **Logic**: Recently, it has been relatively strong, with the rebound logic including short - term supply - demand improvement and the blending logic. The mid - term is still pessimistic due to supply - demand surplus and seasonal inventory accumulation [5][8]. - **Technical Analysis**: The hourly - level is in a short - term upward structure, with a short - term support at 6400. The strategy is to wait and see on the hourly level and look for short - selling opportunities after the daily - level rebound [8]. Rubber - **Logic**: The short - term contradiction is not prominent, and it is necessary to track the inventory accumulation rate. There is no fundamental driver for now [9]. - **Technical Analysis**: The daily - level is in a mid - term downward structure, and the hourly - level is in a short - term upward structure. Hold long positions on the hourly cycle with a stop - loss at 15130, but the upward space is limited [9]. Synthetic Rubber - **Logic**: The internal contradiction is not large, and it is necessary to focus on the cost - end butadiene drive, which also faces mid - term inventory swelling pressure [12]. - **Technical Analysis**: The daily - level is in a mid - term downward structure, and the hourly - level is in a short - term upward structure. The strategy is to wait and see on the hourly cycle [12]. PX - **Logic**: The polyester industry chain's self - contradiction is not large. Pay attention to the blending logic and the geopolitical upgrade risk in the Caribbean region [16]. - **Technical Analysis**: The hourly - level is in a short - term upward structure, with a short - term support at 6715. Hold long positions on the hourly level with a stop - loss at 6715 [16]. PTA - **Logic**: Similar to PX, pay attention to the blending logic and the geopolitical upgrade risk in the Caribbean region [19]. - **Technical Analysis**: The hourly - level is in a short - term upward structure, with a short - term support at 4620. Hold long positions on the hourly level with a stop - loss at 4620 [19]. PP - **Logic**: High supply pressure continues, and downstream demand is weak. Pay attention to the cost - end crude oil drive [23]. - **Technical Analysis**: The hourly - level is in a short - term downward structure, with a short - term pressure at 6520. The strategy is to wait and see on the hourly cycle [23]. Methanol - **Logic**: High inventory in ports suppresses the market, but domestic supply - demand structure has improved. Wait for long - making opportunities after the Iranian gas restriction is implemented and the price breaks through the pressure level. Also, pay attention to geopolitical drivers [25][27]. - **Technical Analysis**: The daily - level and short - term are in a downward structure. There are signs of short - term stabilization. Hold short positions on the hourly cycle with a stop - profit at 2040, and look for long - making opportunities after the price breaks through 2040 [27]. PVC - **Logic**: High supply and high inventory continue, with no upward driver due to weak real - estate demand [29]. - **Technical Analysis**: The daily - level is in a mid - term downward structure, and the hourly - level is in a short - term downward structure. Hold short positions on the hourly cycle [31]. Ethylene Glycol - **Logic**: High supply pressure and inventory accumulation. Be vigilant against short - term geopolitical risks in crude oil [32]. - **Technical Analysis**: The daily - level and hourly - level are in a downward structure. The downward momentum has weakened. The strategy is to wait and see on the hourly cycle [32]. Plastic - **Logic**: High supply, weak demand, and inventory accumulation. Be vigilant against short - term geopolitical risks in crude oil [35]. - **Technical Analysis**: The daily - level is in a mid - term downward structure, and the hourly - level is in an oscillating structure. The strategy is to wait and see on the hourly cycle [35]. Soda Ash - **Logic**: High supply and high inventory continue, with a downward fundamental drive [39]. - **Technical Analysis**: The hourly - level is in a downward structure. The downward momentum has weakened. Hold short positions on the remaining hourly cycle with a stop - profit at 1245 [39]. Caustic Soda - **Logic**: High supply pressure and weak demand, with no upward driver [40]. - **Technical Analysis**: The hourly - level is in a downward structure. The strategy is to wait and see on the hourly cycle [40].

豆粕、生猪下挫 一、农产品板块综述 周一农产品板块大部分品种下跌，豆粕大幅走低，受到美豆下挫 的带动，国内进口大豆充足，豆粕库存在百万吨高位，多头回吐令期 价高位下跌，后市续调整空间。生猪下挫，供应端生猪存栏高位，需 求端腌腊季需求推迟，供大于需格局压制猪价走低。 二、品种策略跟踪 （一）豆粕：大幅下跌 焦点关注：豆粕主力 2601 合约大幅下挫，受美豆下跌的带动： 1. 美国农业部公布的 11 月大豆供需报告将 2025/26 年度美国大 豆单产和产量预估值分别从上个月的53.5蒲式耳/英亩和43.01亿蒲 式耳下调至 53 蒲式耳/英亩和 42.53 亿蒲式耳，数据调整不及市场预 期，引发抛售，美豆下挫带动连粕走低。国内进口大豆到港充足，油 厂豆粕库存在百万吨的高水平，下游饲料企业采购一般，豆粕价格承 压下跌。 2.豆粕主力 2601 合约大幅下跌，期价跌破 10 日均线，呈现高位 回调态势，策略上多单平仓，关注中期均线支撑。 （二）生猪：跳空下行 焦点关注：生猪主力 2601 合约跳空下行，走势偏弱： 1. 供应端能繁母猪存栏量仍高出正常保有量叠加生产效率提升， 产能过剩局面未变。11 月规模猪企计划出 ...