油脂全线下挫、棉花突破上扬 一、农产品板块综述 油脂全线下挫,受到原油暴力下跌的拖累,因以色列和伊朗全面 停火,中东局势急剧降温,原油重挫。同时国内大豆压榨量处于峰值 水平,豆油供应增加,库存累库,令豆油承压下跌。棉花突破上行, 棉花本月以来的横盘区间被突破,因新疆主产区遭遇高温天气影响, 考验棉花作物生长,且虫害也有提前爆发风险,市场担忧新棉花单产 下降,支撑棉价上涨。玉米大幅下跌,因小麦替代效应以及进口玉米 拍卖预期给玉米期价回落压力。 二、品种策略跟踪 (一) 豆油:大幅下跌 焦点关注:豆油主力 2509 合约周二大幅下跌,受到原油暴跌的 拖累: 1.以色列和伊朗全面停火,中东局势急速降温,原油价格暴跌, 带动油脂板块全线下跌,豆油跌幅领先。国内5月大豆进口量攀升至 历史同期高位,油厂压榨量处于峰值水平,豆油供应增加,下游需求 步入传统淡季,豆油库存累积,豆油期价承压下跌。 2.豆油主力 2509 合约大幅下跌,报收长阴,跌破 10 日均线, MACD 红柱四缩小,技术转弱,策略上轻仓空单,主力 2509 合约支 撑 7900,阻力 8000。 (二) 棕榈油:大幅下跌 焦点关注:棕榈油主力 2509 ...

Group 1: Report Core Views - The report focuses on the impact of the US bombing of Iranian nuclear facilities on the Israel-Iran conflict and the crude oil market, suggesting a preference for optimistic and neutral scenarios for the conflict's evolution, with a strategy of shorting crude oil on rallies [3][4] - Crude oil should be shorted on rallies in the optimistic and neutral scenarios, but the timing of short positions needs to be carefully considered, such as after signs of conflict de-escalation or significant supply increases from OPEC+ [4][5] Group 2: Future Evolution Paths of the Israel-Iran Conflict Optimistic Scenario - Iran either launches symbolic missile attacks on US military bases in the Middle East or does not respond, keeping the conflict limited to exchanges with Israel. Oil production and shipping in Iran are not affected. Eventually, through mediation or Israel's ceasefire, negotiations resume, and the oil price drops back to $60 (WTI) [3] Neutral Scenario - Iran attacks US military bases in the Middle East, leading to US intervention and further sanctions. The Strait of Hormuz is not blocked, and the conflict persists. Oil prices remain above $70 due to risk premiums but fall as OPEC+ increases production [3] Pessimistic Scenario - Iran attacks US military bases and blocks the Strait of Hormuz. The conflict expands, and the oil price may exceed $100, but this is a low - probability event [3] Group 3: Analysis of Various Commodities Crude Oil - Short - term influenced by the Israel - Iran conflict, with a mid - term supply - demand surplus logic taking a back seat. Wait for conflict de - escalation events. Technical analysis shows a mid - term oscillatory structure and a short - term upward structure. Strategy: wait for support break or de - escalation events to short [6] Styrene (EB) - Supply is abundant with high开工 rates, and demand is weak. It is easily affected by crude oil price fluctuations. Technical analysis shows a short - term upward structure. Strategy: wait for support break or de - escalation events to short [9] Rubber - Supply is increasing, and demand is weak with high inventories. Technical analysis shows a mid - term downward structure and a short - term oscillatory structure. Strategy: hold short positions [11] Synthetic Rubber (BR) - Fundamental situation is weak with high supply, weak demand, and high inventory pressure. It is affected by crude oil price fluctuations. Technical analysis shows a mid - term downward structure and a short - term upward structure. Strategy: wait for support break or de - escalation events to short [14] PX - Demand supports inventory reduction, but it is affected by crude oil price fluctuations. Technical analysis shows a short - term upward structure. Strategy: wait for de - escalation events to short [17] PTA - Supply increases as maintenance devices resume operation, and demand is weak. It is affected by crude oil price fluctuations. Technical analysis shows a short - term upward structure. Strategy: wait for de - escalation events to short [20] PP - Supply is under pressure due to increased device operation, and demand is weak. It is affected by the Israel - Iran conflict through raw material supply. Technical analysis shows a short - term upward structure. Strategy: wait for de - escalation events to short [24] Methanol - Supply is affected by Iranian device shutdowns. Technical analysis shows a mid - term downward structure and a short - term upward structure. Strategy: wait for technical break or de - escalation events to short [25] PVC - Supply is increasing as maintenance decreases, and demand is weak due to the real - estate downturn. The Israel - Iran conflict has a relatively weak impact. Technical analysis shows a mid - term downward structure and a short - term upward structure. Strategy: wait and see [28] Ethylene Glycol (EG) - Supply is expected to increase as maintenance devices resume, and demand is weak. It is affected by geopolitical situations. Technical analysis shows a mid - term downward structure and a short - term upward structure. Strategy: wait for de - escalation events to short [31] Plastic - There is pressure from large - scale device production in the mid - term, and it is affected by oil price fluctuations. Technical analysis shows a mid - term downward structure and a short - term upward structure. Strategy: wait for de - escalation events to short [32]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. 2. Core View of the Report The agricultural products sector shows diverse trends. Sugar and hog prices are rising, vegetable oils are at high levels, and corn is moving upward. Each specific variety is affected by different factors such as supply - demand, policies, and international market conditions [1]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Agricultural Products Sector Overview - Sugar rebounds due to low inventory and the approaching summer consumption peak. Hogs rise strongly as policy requires pig enterprises to reduce sow inventory, mid - year promotions boost sales, and slaughterhouse operating rates increase. Vegetable oils remain high supported by strong crude oil and positive news from production areas. Corn prices move up due to tight supply and a significant drop in imports [1]. 3.2 Variety Strategy Tracking 3.2.1 Sugar - Focus: The main sugar 2509 contract breaks through and moves up. In May 2025, sugar imports increased (34.764 tons, a 157.80% month - on - month and 1954.93% year - on - year increase), but the cumulative imports from January to May decreased by 50.1% year - on - year. Low inventory and the consumption peak may further reduce inventory, supporting prices. Technically, it shows strength. The strategy is to hold light - position long orders, with support at 5684 and resistance at 5732 [2]. 3.2.2 Hogs - Focus: The hog 2509 contract rises strongly, entering an upward trend again. The supply is stable as farmers are not very willing to sell. Mid - year promotions in some areas increase slaughterhouse operating rates (27.97% in the week of June 19, a 0.75 - percentage - point week - on - week and 4.22 - percentage - point year - on - year increase). There is a phenomenon of second - fattening. Policies like stockpiling and reducing sow inventory support prices. The strategy is to hold light - position long orders, with support at 13730 and resistance at 14000 [3]. 3.2.3 Soybean Oil - Focus: The main soybean oil 2509 contract rises but then falls back, continuing the upward trend. Tensions in the Middle East keep oil prices high, and the strengthening cost side in the domestic market provides upward momentum. Technically, it is strong. The strategy is to hold light - position long orders, with support at 8100 and resistance at 8200 [5]. 3.2.4 Palm Oil - Focus: The main palm oil 2509 contract first rises then falls, with a narrowing increase. Strong exports (a 10.9% increase in exports from June 1 - 20) and a 4% decrease in production from June 1 - 15 support prices, but India's reduced procurement weakens the increase. Technically, it remains strong. The strategy is to hold light - position long orders, with support at 8494 and resistance at 8600 [8]. 3.2.5 Eggs - Focus: The main egg 2508 contract first rises then falls, with a narrowing increase. Low egg prices arouse bottom - fishing sentiment, and high - temperature weather reduces laying rates. However, the high - humidity rainy season suppresses demand. Technically, it remains strong. The strategy is to hold long orders, with support at 3600 and resistance at 3655 [9][11]. 3.2.6 Soybean Meal - Focus: The soybean meal 2509 contract fluctuates and closes down. Record - high soybean imports in May bring some pressure, but rising Brazilian soybean export premiums increase costs, supporting prices. Technically, it remains strong. The strategy is to hold long orders, with support at 3050 and resistance at 3087 [12]. 3.2.7 Corn - Focus: The main corn 2509 contract continues to rise, supported by tight supply. Spot prices are firm, and port inventories are decreasing. In May 2025, corn imports dropped 81.5% year - on - year. Technically, it is strong. The strategy is to hold light - position long orders, with support at 2400 and resistance at 2415 [14]. 3.2.8 Cotton - Focus: The main cotton 2509 contract fluctuates and closes down, continuing the sideways trend. The domestic textile market is in the off - season, but a sharp drop in imports supports prices. The strategy is to close long orders and conduct short - term trading, with support at 13450 and resistance at 13600 [16]. 3.2.9 Red Dates - Focus: The main red date 2509 contract falls back after a sharp rise. High - temperature weather in Xinjiang may affect production as the jujubes are in a critical growth period. Technically, it remains in an upward trend. The strategy is to hold light - position long orders during the correction, with support at 9200 and resistance at 9640 [18]. 3.2.10 Apples - Focus: The main apple 2510 contract rises significantly. Apple inventory is low (116.49 tons as of June 18, a 10.97 - ton decrease from the previous period), and new - season apples are in the late bagging stage. Technically, it shows strength. The strategy is to hold light - position long orders, with support at 7700 and resistance at 7800 [20].

以伊冲突之下等待标志性降温事件 板块观点汇总 | 品种 | 中期结构 | 短期结构 | 小时周期策略 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 原油 | 震荡 | 偏多 | 观望 | | EB | 農汤 | 偏多 | 观望 | | PX | 偏空 | 偏多 | 观望 | | PTA | 偏空 | 偏多 | 观望 | | PP | 震荡 | 偏多 | 观望 | | 塑料 | 偏空 | 偏多 | 观望 | | 甲醇 | 偏多 | 偏多 | 观望 | | EG | 震荡 | 偏多 | 观望 | | 橡胶 | 偏空 | 震荡 | 空单持有 | | PVC | 偏空 | 偏多 | 观望 | | BR 橡胶 | 偏空 | 偏多 | 观望 | 行情日评: 以色列-伊朗冲突尚未降温,以伊冲突仍是近期主要交易逻辑。 昨日特朗普表示将于两周内决定是否对伊朗采取军事行动,暂缓决定 打击伊朗一事,地缘风险小幅降温,但并非标志性的降温信号。目前 原油与能化判断依然是地缘事件带来的溢价扰动,类似与去年 10月 伊朗"真实承诺 2"行动带来的干扰,只是幅度更大,而非趋势反转。 短期情绪推高原油与化工估值后,等待降温事件出 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core View of the Report The agricultural products sector shows a mixed performance. Oils and fats are rising strongly, eggs are making a strong rebound, and pigs are rising with fluctuations. Different varieties are affected by various factors such as policies, supply - demand relationships, and international situations [1]. 3. Summary by Product (1) Soybean Oil - The soybean oil main 2509 contract continues to rise strongly, boosted by US biofuel policies. Tensions in the Middle East drive up crude oil prices, which in turn drive up vegetable oils. Although domestic inventory is accumulating, the external market is strong. Technically, it is in a strong position, and the recommended strategy is to hold light - long positions with support at 7980 and resistance at 8100 [2]. (2) Palm Oil - The palm oil main 2509 contract continues to rise at a high level after a sharp increase, supported by rising oil prices and the upward trend of related oils. The export of Malaysian palm oil is strong, and production has declined. Technically, it is strong, and the recommended strategy is to hold light - long positions with support at 8450 and resistance at 8600 [3]. (3) Eggs - The egg main 2508 contract makes a strong rebound, driven by speculative buying. Egg prices are at a low level, leading to a release of bottom - fishing sentiment. Spot market transactions have improved, and inventory is low. Technically, it is strong, and the recommended strategy is to buy long positions with support at 3545 and resistance at 3656 [6]. (4) Soybean Meal - The soybean meal 2509 contract fluctuates at a high level. Domestic oil mills have a high operating rate, and inventory is accumulating. However, strong terminal demand and rising spot prices support the futures price. Technically, it is relatively strong, and the recommended strategy is to hold light - long positions with support at 3054 and resistance at 3087 [7][9][11]. (5) Corn - The corn main 2507 contract oscillates at a high level. Support comes from wheat's minimum purchase price, rising corn starch prices, and reduced port inventory. However, concerns about policy grain release limit its increase. The recommended strategy is short - term trading with support at 2362 and resistance at 2380 [13]. (6) Pigs - The pig 2509 contract continues to rise with fluctuations. Short - term government purchases boost market sentiment, and factors such as reduced supply and transportation restrictions support pig prices. Technically, it shows strong characteristics, and the recommended strategy is to hold long positions with support at 13795 and resistance at 13930 [14]. (7) Sugar - The sugar main 2509 contract oscillates at a low level. The decline in the external raw sugar market drags down Zhengzhou sugar, but low domestic inventory and the upcoming consumption season provide some support. The recommended strategy is short - term trading with support at 5645 and resistance at 5700 [16]. (8) Cotton - The cotton main 2509 contract rises with fluctuations. The easing of Sino - US economic and trade relations and declining port inventory support cotton prices. Although the domestic textile market is in the off - season, there are signs of improvement in external orders. Technically, it is relatively strong, and the recommended strategy is to hold light - long positions with support at 13500 and resistance at 13600 [19]. (9) Apples - The apple main 2510 contract fluctuates strongly. Low inventory supports the futures price, but the slow pace of inventory clearance and the gap with the same period in previous years are narrowing. Attention should be paid to the growth and quality of new - season apples. Technically, it is relatively strong, and the recommended strategy is to hold light - long positions with support at 7618 and resistance at 7700 [20][22]. (10) Peanuts - The peanut main 2510 contract oscillates and closes down. The market is in a stalemate between supply and demand, with low remaining inventory in the production area and limited demand from oil mills. Technically, it is weak, and the recommended strategy is to hold light - short positions with support at 8220 and resistance at 8286 [23].

地缘风险继续推动行情, 等待标志性降温事件 逻辑:以伊冲突下短期地缘溢价继续被市场交易,中期供需过剩 逻辑暂且退场。等待冲突下的标志性降温事件出现,如伊朗同意放弃 轴浓缩确定新谈判时间。 日度技术追踪:原油日线级别中期震荡结构,小时级别短期上涨 结构。今日增仓上行,小时 K 线则尚未转势,短期支撑关注 508一线。 策略上小时周期观望等待短期支撑破位或看到以伊冲突的标志性降 温事件后再逢高空。 图 1.1: 原油 2508 日线图 (二) 苯乙烯: 板块观点汇总 | 品种 | 中期结构 | 短期结构 | 小时周期策略 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 原油 | 農汤 | 偏多 | 观望 | | EB | 震荡 | 偏多 | 观望 | | PX | 偏空 | 偏多 | 观望 | | PTA | 偏空 | 偏多 | 观望 | | PP | 農物 | 偏多 | 观望 | | 塑料 | 偏空 | 偏多 | 观望 | | 甲醇 | 偏多 | 偏多 | 观望 | | EG | 震荡 | 偏多 | 观望 | | 橡胶 | 偏空 | 偏空 | 空单持有 | | PVC | 偏空 | 偏空 | 空单止 ...

以伊冲突持续,等待降温信号 行情日评: 图 1. 1: 原油 2507 日线图 图 1. 2: 原油 2507 小时图 以色列-伊朗冲突仍在继续,目前来看伊朗表现依然较"怂", 报复仅局限与以色列,可以类比去年10月伊朗"真实承诺2"行动 对原油的干扰,但规模稍大。目前以伊冲突尚未对原油供应造成实质 影响,原油近期大涨更多是仍是风险溢价的体现。目前伊朗内部较为 品种 短期结构 小时周期策略 中期结构 原油 偏空 偏多 观望 偏空 观望 偏多 EB 偏空 观望 偏多 PX 偏空 偏多 观望 PTA 偏空 偏多 观望 PP 偏空 偏多 观望 塑料 甲醇 偏空 偏多 观望 偏空 偏多 观望 EG 橡胶 偏空 偏空 空单持有 PVC 偏空 偏空 空单持有 BR 橡胶 偏空 偏空 空单持有 板块观点汇总 分裂,且不断传出妥协信息,判断后续大概率仍会降温,在短期情绪 推高原油与化工估值后,等待降温事件出现后再寻中期做空机会。 (一) 原油: 逻辑:以伊冲突下短期地缘溢价为市场交易,中期供需过剩逻辑 暂且退场。 日度技术追踪:原油日线级别中期下跌结构,小时级别短期上涨 结构。今日高位减仓回落,日K线组合上有一丝见顶迹象,小 ...

豆粕走升,白糖反弹 一、农产品板块综述 豆粕强劲走高,受到美豆强势提振,国内养殖需求旺盛,下游企 业豆粕提货积极,豆粕库存累积缓慢,支撑豆粕走高,走势偏强。白 糖反弹,外盘低位反弹以及国内夏季消费旺季到来皆支撑白糖反弹上 扬,后市或有继续回升空间。油脂板块震荡有升,市场继续消化美生 柴政策消息的影响,走势整体维持高位运行特征。 二、品种策略跟踪 (一) 豆粕: 大幅上涨 焦点关注:豆粕2509 合约大幅上涨,创阶段性新高: 1. 美国政府提出的明年和后年生物燃料混合要求高于行业预期, 且包括抑制生物燃料进口的措施,推动美豆油连续涨停,带动美豆期 价持稳上扬,对国内豆类品种有支撑影响。尽管国内油厂开机率持续 高位运行,但得益于终端养殖需求旺盛及豆粕提货积极性良好,豆粕 库存累积进程缓慢。Mysteel 数据显示截至第24周,豆粕库存 41万 吨,环比增幅 7.19%,同比下降 58.79%。豆粕多头买盘积极,增仓推 升行情走高。 2、豆粕主力 2509 合约高位上扬,站上均线系统,技术偏强, 策略上轻仓多单,豆粕2509 合约支撑 3050,阻力 3100。 (二)豆油:震荡上行 焦点关注:豆油主力2509 合 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - Crude oil's sharp rise drives the overall strength of the oil and fat sector. Due to the Israeli attack on Iranian nuclear facilities, the Middle - East situation has suddenly become tense, increasing the geopolitical premium and the bullish sentiment in the commodity market. The palm oil price has risen, with its origin showing both supply and demand growth. Meanwhile, eggs have rebounded, and corn has fluctuated at a high level [1]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs 3.1 Agricultural Product Sector Overview - Crude oil's sharp rise drives the overall strength of the oil and fat sector. The Middle - East situation's tension boosts the geopolitical premium and the bullish sentiment in the commodity market. Palm oil has risen, with its origin having both supply and demand growth. The strong exports of Malaysian palm oil support the price increase, but the production growth also limits the increase. Eggs have rebounded due to potential bullish expectations after contract transfer and over - culling in the breeding end. Corn has fluctuated at a high level, supported by the wheat support policy, tight supply in the producing areas, and a sharp increase in the corn price in the sales areas [1]. 3.2 Variety Strategy Tracking 3.2.1 Palm Oil: Rebound and Oscillation - The palm oil main 2509 contract has risen significantly, boosted by the sharp rise in crude oil. The tense Middle - East situation drives the rise in palm oil. Malaysia's palm oil production is expected to increase, but India's strong demand for palm oil exports supports the price. In China, palm oil inventory has increased year - on - year, and it is mainly for rigid demand. The main 2509 contract shows a box - shaped oscillation. The strategy is to close short positions and conduct short - term trading, with support at 8086 and resistance at 8224 [2][3]. 3.2.2 Soybean Oil: Gap - up and Higher - The soybean oil main 2509 contract has risen due to the sharp rise in crude oil. However, the subsequent increase may be limited because of the large arrival of imported soybeans in China, high oil mill operating rates, and increased soybean oil supply and inventory. As of the end of the 23rd week, domestic soybean oil inventory was 91.89 million tons, a week - on - week increase of 8.42%. The strategy is to close short positions and conduct short - term trading, with support at 7736 and resistance at 7838 [4]. 3.2.3 Live Hogs: Continuous Rise - The live hog 2509 contract has continued to rise, boosted by the news of state reserve purchases. The 10,000 - ton reserve purchase has boosted market confidence, supported the hog price, and increased buying from long positions. The strategy is to hold light long positions, with support at 13700 and resistance at 13880 [6]. 3.2.4 Eggs: Rebound from Low Levels - The egg main 2508 contract has rebounded from low levels, boosted by increased culling of laying hens. After contract transfer, there are potential bullish factors. The accelerated culling of hens may reduce egg supply pressure. The strategy is to close short positions and pay attention to whether the resistance of the 20 - day moving average can be overcome, with support at 3500 and resistance at 3566 [8]. 3.2.5 Sugar: Rebound after Reaching a Low - The sugar main 2509 contract has rebounded after reaching a low, supported by some short - covering. The increased sugar production in Brazil, India, and Thailand puts pressure on the international sugar price. Although China's sugar production has increased and import volume is expected to rise, the high sugar sales rate and the upcoming summer consumption season support the price. The strategy is to hold short positions, with support at 5610 and resistance at 5686 [10]. 3.2.6 Soybean Meal: Oscillation and Decline - The soybean meal 2509 contract has oscillated and declined at a high level due to long - position profit - taking and cost - driven cooling. The high operating rate of domestic oil mills has increased soybean meal inventory. The strategy is to close long positions, with support at 3037 and resistance at 3065 [12]. 3.2.7 Corn: High - level Fluctuation - The corn main 2507 contract has fluctuated at a high level, first falling and then rising. Supported by the wheat support policy, tight supply in the producing areas, low imported corn, and a sharp increase in the sales - area spot price, the adjustment space is limited. The strategy is to hold long positions, with support at 2372 and resistance at 2387 [15]. 3.2.8 Cotton: First Decline then Rise, High - level Oscillation - The cotton main 2509 contract has first declined then risen and is running strongly. The Sino - US economic and trade consultation meeting has increased market optimism, and the decreasing port inventory of imported cotton also has a positive impact. Although the domestic textile market is in the off - season, the easing of Sino - US relations has stabilized market sentiment. The strategy is to hold light long positions, with support at 13390 and resistance at 13600 [16][18]. 3.2.9 Apples: Narrow - range Oscillation - The apple main 2510 contract has oscillated in a narrow range, with limited rebound space. Low inventory supports the price, but slow sales in the off - season offset some of the support. The inventory depletion has slowed down, and the expected reduction in new - season production has decreased. The strategy is to hold short positions, with support at 7544 and resistance at 7637 [19][21]. 3.2.10 Peanuts: Narrow - range Fluctuation - The peanut main 2510 contract has had a small rebound after a continuous sharp decline and is fluctuating in a narrow range. The peanut market currently has weak supply and demand. Some suppliers' profit - taking and weak terminal demand put pressure on the price. The strategy is to hold light short positions, with support at 8180 and resistance at 8232 [22].

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No specific industry investment rating is provided in the report. 2. Report's Core View The sudden attack by Israel on Iran has disrupted the market rhythm, with short - term geopolitical logic overriding the medium - term supply - demand logic, leading to a sharp rise in crude oil prices. It is believed that a full - scale war between Israel and Iran is unlikely. After the short - term sentiment pushes up the valuations of crude oil and chemicals, mid - term short - selling opportunities should be sought after the geopolitical situation becomes clear [3][4]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalog (1) Overall Variety Analysis - For most varieties (crude oil, EB, PX, PTA, PP, plastic, methanol), the medium - term structure is bearish, while the short - term structure is bullish. For EG, rubber, PVC, and BR rubber, both the medium - term and short - term structures are bearish. Different trading strategies are recommended for each variety based on technical analysis [2]. (2) Crude Oil - **Logic**: The Israel - Iran attack makes geopolitical sentiment the short - term dominant factor. Attention should be paid to the progress of the Iranian geopolitical situation [5]. - **Technical Analysis**: The daily - level shows a medium - term downward structure, and the hourly - level shows a short - term upward structure. After a daily limit up and then the opening of the board at the end of the session, the short - term support is around 490. The hourly - cycle strategy is to wait for the short - term support to break [5]. (3) Benzene (Styrene) - **Logic**: The cost - side pure benzene has high port inventory and strong import increment expectations. The supply of benzene styrene is expected to remain high, while the demand has not improved, so it is bearish in the medium term [7]. - **Technical Analysis**: The hourly - level shows a short - term upward structure. After a volume - reducing and price - increasing movement with crude oil, the hourly - level support is around 7315. The hourly - cycle strategy is to wait and see [10]. (4) Rubber - **Logic**: The price of Thai glue has dropped nearly 20% in the past two weeks, and the terminal demand is weak, so it is bearish in the medium term [11]. - **Technical Analysis**: Both the daily - level and hourly - level show downward structures. After a volume - reducing rebound affected by crude oil, it has not broken through the short - term pressure of 14000. The hourly - cycle strategy is to hold short positions with a stop - loss reference of 14000 [13]. (5) Synthetic Rubber - **Logic**: The fundamentals of synthetic rubber are average. The supply of butadiene is expected to increase, which will put pressure on synthetic rubber from the cost side. The demand is also affected by tire inventory pressure, so it is bearish in the medium term [14]. - **Technical Analysis**: Both the daily - level and hourly - level show downward structures. After a volume - reducing rebound affected by crude oil, it has not effectively broken through the short - term pressure of 11470. The hourly - cycle strategy is to hold short positions with a take - profit reference of 11550 [17]. (6) PX - **Logic**: The supply - side profit has recovered, and the short - term supply - demand has strengthened. There are many maintenance plans in July, so the supply contraction expectation is strong. The fundamentals are bullish, and attention should be paid to the cost - side crude oil drive [19]. - **Technical Analysis**: The hourly - level shows a short - term upward structure. After a volume - reducing and price - increasing movement with crude oil, it has broken through the pressure and reversed in the short term. The hourly - cycle strategy is to wait and see [20]. (7) PTA - **Logic**: The supply - side operating rate has recovered, and the demand - side polyester profit is weak. The short - term supply - demand has weakened compared with before. Attention should be paid to the crude oil drive [21]. - **Technical Analysis**: The hourly - level shows a short - term upward structure. After a volume - reducing and price - increasing movement with crude oil, it has broken through the pressure and reversed in the short term. The hourly - cycle strategy is to stop - loss and exit short positions [21]. (8) PP - **Logic**: The demand is weak in the off - season, and there are large - scale device productions in June, with a strong supply increase expectation. Short - term cost fluctuations driven by crude oil should be noted [25]. - **Technical Analysis**: The hourly - level shows a short - term upward structure. After a volume - reducing and price - increasing movement with crude oil, it has broken through the pressure and reversed in the short term. The hourly - cycle strategy is to take - profit and exit short positions [25]. (9) Methanol - **Logic**: The domestic device profit is high, the import volume is large, and the inventory is accumulating, so there is great medium - term pressure on the market [28]. - **Technical Analysis**: The daily - level shows a medium - term downward structure, and the hourly - level shows a short - term upward structure. After a volume - reducing and price - increasing movement affected by crude oil, the short - term support is around 2275. The hourly - cycle strategy is to wait and see [28]. (10) PVC - **Logic**: In the real - estate downward cycle, the downstream operating rate is at the lowest level in the same period of previous years, and the export demand is weak. The supply - side operating rate is around the average level in the same period of previous years, so the fundamentals are bearish [29]. - **Technical Analysis**: Both the daily - level and hourly - level show downward structures. After a small - scale volume - increasing rebound, it has not broken through the pressure. The short - term pressure is around 4880. The hourly - cycle strategy is to hold short positions with a stop - loss reference of 4865 [29]. (11) Ethylene Glycol (EG) - **Logic**: The supply has tightened, the short - term polyester demand is okay, and the inventory is decreasing. The short - term fundamentals are supported, and the supply - demand contradiction is not obvious [32]. - **Technical Analysis**: Both the daily - level and hourly - level show downward structures. After a volume - reducing and price - increasing rebound affected by crude oil, it has broken through the short - term pressure. The hourly - cycle strategy is to take - profit and exit short positions [32]. (12) Plastic - **Logic**: There are many maintenance devices recently, but there is large - scale device production pressure in June and the second half of the year, so it is bearish in the medium term [36]. - **Technical Analysis**: The daily - level shows a medium - term downward structure, and the hourly - level shows an upward structure. After a volume - reducing and price - increasing movement affected by crude oil, it is still affected by sentiment. The hourly - cycle strategy is to wait and see [36].