1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The agricultural products sector shows mixed trends, with soybean meal and eggs rising, the oil and fat sector weakening, and various varieties having their own influencing factors and market outlooks [1] - Different varieties have different trading strategies based on their market conditions and technical indicators 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Agricultural Products Sector Overview - Soybean meal shows strong growth due to uncertainties in Sino - US economic and trade relations, poor oil mill crushing profits, and short - covering. The egg market has a strong rebound because of strong bottom - fishing sentiment in the spot market and potential accelerated capacity reduction. The oil and fat sector is under pressure due to high domestic soybean crushing volume and lack of price - support from oil mills and traders [1] 3.2 Variety Strategy Tracking 3.2.1 Soybean Meal - The main 2601 contract of soybean meal is strongly rising, driven by short - covering. Uncertainties in Sino - US economic and trade relations lead to an expected shortage of long - term imported soybeans. Oil mills have a strong willingness to support prices due to poor or negative crushing profits. After the festival, the concentrated release of rigid demand for replenishment and the recovery of the production rhythm of downstream feed enterprises result in a significant increase in提货 volume and a decrease in domestic oil mill soybean meal inventory to below one million tons. As of October 17, the inventory was 970,000 tons, a decrease of over 9% compared to the previous period [2] - Technically, the contract price breaks through the 20 - day moving average, and the MACD shows a golden cross with an expanding red column. The strategy is to close short positions and establish long positions on dips. The support level is 2920, and the resistance level is 2950 [2] 3.2.2 Eggs - The main 2512 contract of eggs has a strong rebound, boosted by the rise in spot prices. After the egg price reaches a phased low, the bottom - fishing sentiment in the spot market heats up, the trading atmosphere improves, and the inventory days decrease. Meanwhile, the breeding end accelerates the elimination of old chickens. If the elimination volume of old chickens exceeds expectations in the future, it will accelerate capacity reduction and relieve the supply pressure. The rise in egg spot prices leads to a large number of short - covering in the futures market, pushing up the futures price [3] - Technically, the contract price stands firm above the 10 - day moving average. The strategy is to close short positions and wait to see if it can break through the 20 - day moving average. The support level is 2975, and the resistance level is 3082 [3] 3.2.3 Cotton - The main 2601 contract of cotton continues to rise, driven by long - buying and improved demand. With the listing of new cotton, ginning factories continue to purchase, and the purchase cost increases. The operating rate of downstream textile enterprises rebounds. As of October 16, the operating load of mainstream textile enterprises was 65.6%, a week - on - week increase of 0.20%. China's cotton imports in September decreased by 18.7% year - on - year, and the cumulative imports from January to September decreased by 69.8% year - on - year, at a relatively low level in recent years. The increase in cotton quotes at Chinese ports reflects the strengthening of demand, pushing up the spot price [5] - Technically, the contract price stands firm above the 20 - day moving average, and the MACD shows a golden cross with an expanding red column. The strategy is to buy long positions on dips. The support level is 13490, and the resistance level is 13700 [5] 3.2.4 Corn - The main 2601 contract of corn rebounds and rises, supported by planting costs and continuous listing purchases by grain depots. In the Northeast production area, new grain is on the market, and grain depots start to purchase. The drop in temperature in the Northeast is conducive to corn storage, reducing the pressure of corn listing. In the North China region, the improvement in weather conditions significantly reduces the pressure of grass - roots grain sales. Deep - processing enterprises have low corn inventories and need to replenish stocks. The increase in long positions in the corn futures market drives the futures price to rebound [7] - Technically, the contract price returns above the 20 - day moving average, and the MACD shows a golden cross with an expanding red column. The strategy is to buy long positions lightly on dips. The support level is 2127, and the resistance level is 2155 [7] 3.2.5 Live Pigs - The main 2601 contract of live pigs first rises and then falls, with limited rebound. The spread between standard and fat pigs in the live pig market attracts second - fattening entry, and the transaction in some areas improves. At the same time, after the previous decline in the live pig price, the cost of slaughtering enterprises decreases, and some enterprises increase the inventory of frozen products, providing short - term support for the pig price. However, the live pig inventory remains at a high level, and the loose supply - demand pattern in the industry has not been fundamentally reversed, limiting the rebound height of the live pig futures price [9] - Technically, the contract price still holds above the 10 - day moving average, and the MACD shows a red bar emerging. The strategy is to close short positions and then conduct short - term trading. The support level is 12125, and the resistance level is 12400 [9] 3.2.6 Apples - The main 2601 contract of apples fluctuates and rises after a small adjustment, continuing to fluctuate at a high level. In the western production area, the price of high - quality apples in Shaanxi is stable, and the picking progress of late - maturing Fuji apples in Gansu is fast, with merchants mainly storing them in warehouses. In the Shandong production area, the redness and brightness of late - maturing Fuji apples are generally average, and merchants are cautious in purchasing. The current market's continuous concern about apple quality supports the apple price. The short - covering of some positions in the apple futures market supports the high - level operation of the futures price [11] - Technically, the contract price fluctuates above the moving average system, and the technical strength remains unchanged. The strategy is to hold long positions lightly. The support level is 8792, and the resistance level is 8888 [11] 3.2.7 Palm Oil - The main 2601 contract of palm oil continues to fall, affected by the increase in Malaysian palm oil production. From October 1 to 20, the production of Malaysian palm oil increased by 10.77% month - on - month. In terms of exports, the purchasing demand will continue to decline after the Indian Festival of Lights, and the market sentiment turns bearish. In the domestic market, the arrival of goods in the near - term is sufficient, and there are more ship bookings for November, weakening the cost support and causing the palm oil futures price to fall under pressure [13] - Technically, the contract price breaks below the moving average system, and the MACD falls into the negative area with an expanding green column. The strategy is to hold short positions lightly. The support level is 9050, and the resistance level is 9180 [13] 3.2.8 White Sugar - The main 2601 contract of white sugar rebounds strongly, boosted by technical buying. According to customs data, China's white sugar imports in September decreased by 33.56% month - on - month and increased by 35.81% year - on - year. The month - on - month decrease in white sugar imports ends the six - month increase trend, reducing the import pressure. The futures price is at a discount, and enterprises have insufficient motivation for hedging, supporting the rebound of the futures price. However, the continuous beet sugar pressing and the relatively abundant supply of processed sugar limit the rebound space of white sugar [15] - Technically, the contract price rebounds strongly and stands above the 20 - day moving average, and the MACD shows a golden cross with an expanding red column. The strategy is to try to buy long positions lightly. The support level is 5433, and the resistance level is 5470 [15] 3.2.9 Red Dates - The main 2601 contract of red dates continues to fall, pressured by the increased supply of new dates. Currently, the process of orchard contracting in Xinjiang is fast, and the picking time is slightly earlier than last year due to the influence of solar terms. The supply of new dates is about to increase, and the supply of old dates is sufficient, putting pressure on the price of red dates. The long - covering at high positions in the red date futures market drives the futures price to fall [17] - Technically, the contract price falls continuously from a high level and tests the support of the medium - term moving average, and the MACD red column shrinks. The strategy is to close long positions and conduct short - term trading. The support level is 11120, and the resistance level is 11320 [17]

原油反弹，关注短期压力位压制 品种 中期结构 短期结构 小时周期策略 原油 偏空 偏空 空单持有 EB 偏空 偏空 剩余空单持有 PX 偏空 偏空 空单持有 PTA 偏空 偏空 空单止盈 PP 偏空 偏空 止盈后无进场点，观望 塑料 偏空 偏空 剩余空单持有 甲醇 偏空 偏空 剩余空单持有 EG 偏空 偏空 空单持有 橡胶 偏空 偏空 空单持有 PVC 偏空 偏空 空单持有 BR 橡胶 偏空 偏空 空单持有 纯碱 偏空 偏空 剩余空单持有 烧碱 偏空 偏空 止盈后无进场点，观望 板块观点汇总 观方面受中美摩擦情绪反复与美国部分银行信贷危机担忧宏观驱动 偏空，但宏观影响最大的铜上周波动有限，表明原油受到的宏观驱动 影响也相对有限（但不排除后续影响放大），原油盘面自日线破位后 不断加速下行主要仍是受制于基本面过剩逐渐兑现带来的中期下行 驱动逻辑所致，OPEC+不断延续增产后，自 9 月下旬以来 OPEC+8 国原 油发货量持续攀升，原油供应量明显放大，并且随着前期发运船只到 港，以及成品油淡季需求拐点，近两周原油商业与炼厂库存均持续累 库攀升，原油过剩逻辑从此前预期转向数据对应开始兑现。目前原油 大趋势依然延续对 ...

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content Group 2: Core Viewpoints of the Report - The energy and chemical sector remains weak, with the downward trend driven by the over - capacity of the chemical industry, the decline in crude oil costs, and the short - selling of market funds. Most varieties have seen a decline of over 10% since mid - September, and short positions can still be held [1][2] Group 3: Summary by Relevant Catalogs (1) Crude Oil - Logic: Geopolitical influence on crude oil is weakening, and the macro - drive is bearish. The main reason for the downward trend is the excess supply. OPEC + has increased production, and inventories have been rising. The downward trend continues, and attention should be paid to whether the April low can be broken [3] - Technical Analysis: The daily - level and hourly - level structures are both in a downward trend. The intraday performance is weak, and the short - position should be held with the short - term pressure at 447 for the 12 - contract [3] (2) Styrene (EB) - Logic: Although the supply - demand situation has slightly improved due to increased maintenance, port inventories are still accumulating, and there is a risk of price collapse due to the approaching seasonal inventory accumulation in January. Do not chase short positions [5][8] - Technical Analysis: The hourly - level structure is in a downward trend. The intraday rebound is limited, and the short - position should be held with the short - term pressure at 6610 [8] (3) Rubber - Logic: The supply in Southeast Asia is expected to increase in the fourth quarter, and domestic inventories are high. The cost support is weakening [10] - Technical Analysis: The daily - level and hourly - level structures are in a downward trend. The intraday increase is a rebound. The short - position should be held with the stop - profit at 15450 [10] (4) Synthetic Rubber (BR) - Logic: The supply - demand contradiction is not obvious in the short term, but the cost of crude oil and butadiene is declining, which may drive the price of synthetic rubber down [12][14] - Technical Analysis: The daily - level and hourly - level structures are in a downward trend. The intraday increase is a rebound. The short - position should be held with the stop - profit at 11300 [14] (5) PX - Logic: The supply - demand situation has slightly improved, but the high - supply pattern remains. The main driving factor is the cost of crude oil [18] - Technical Analysis: The hourly - level structure is in a downward trend. The intraday rebound is limited. The short - position should be held with the stop - profit at 6460 - 6480 [18] (6) PTA - Logic: The supply pressure is large, and the demand is stable. The main driving factor is the cost of crude oil [20] - Technical Analysis: The hourly - level structure is in a downward trend. The intraday rebound is limited. The short - position should be held with the stop - profit at 4470 [20] (7) PP - Logic: The supply pressure is high, and the demand is weak both at home and abroad. The cost is also under downward pressure [22] - Technical Analysis: The hourly - level structure is in a downward trend. After taking profit, there is no good entry point, so continue to wait and see [22] (8) Methanol - Logic: There is a long - position opportunity for the 01 - contract in the future due to seasonal factors, but the short - term supply is high and inventories are high. Pay attention to the technical signal and the gas - restriction time in Iran [26] - Technical Analysis: The daily - level and hourly - level structures are in a downward trend. The short - position should be held with the stop - profit at 2320. Consider long - position after breaking through the pressure [26] (9) PVC - Logic: The supply is high, the demand from the real - estate sector is low, and the inventory is accumulating [29] - Technical Analysis: The daily - level and hourly - level structures are in a downward trend. The short - position should be held with the short - term pressure at 4800 [29] (10) Ethylene Glycol (EG) - Logic: The supply is increasing, and the inventory is accumulating, indicating a weakening supply - demand situation [30] - Technical Analysis: The daily - level and hourly - level structures are in a downward trend. The short - position should be held with the short - term pressure at 4060 [30] (11) Plastic - Logic: The supply pressure is increasing, and the demand is weak. The cost is under downward pressure [32] - Technical Analysis: The daily - level and hourly - level structures are in a downward trend. The short - position should be held with the short - term pressure at 6940 [32] (12) Soda Ash - Logic: The supply and inventory are high, the demand is not expected to improve, and the macro - drive is downward. The downward pressure on the price continues [36] - Technical Analysis: The hourly - level structure is in a downward trend. The short - position should be held with the short - term pressure at 1260 [36] (13) Caustic Soda - Logic: The supply pressure is increasing in the medium - term, and the demand is stable. The driving force is bearish [37] - Technical Analysis: The hourly - level structure is in a downward trend. After taking profit, there is no good entry point, so continue to wait and see [39]

Report Summary 1. Industry Investment Rating No industry investment rating is provided in the report. 2. Core View The agricultural products sector is generally weak. Two types of rapeseed meal have tumbled, with rapeseed meal leading the decline. The price of live pigs has continued to fall, and the entire oil and fat sector has declined. Some commodities such as cotton and dates show different trends [1]. 3. Summary of Each Variety (1) Rapeseed Meal - The price of rapeseed meal has dropped significantly due to the possible improvement in China - Canada trade relations and the off - season demand. The domestic rapeseed meal market is in a situation of weak supply and demand. The main 2601 contract has fallen sharply, and the technical indicator is weak. The strategy is to hold a light - position short order, with support at 2300 and resistance at 2330 [2]. (2) Live Pigs - The main 2601 contract of live pigs has continued to fall sharply because of the increasing supply of market - suitable pigs and weak demand. The technical indicator is weak. The strategy is to hold a light - position short order, with support at 11600 and resistance at 11800 [3]. (3) Corn - The main 2601 contract of corn has rebounded but was blocked and then dropped significantly due to the supply pressure of new corn on the market. The strategy is to close long orders and try a light - position short order, with support at 2100 and resistance at 2120 [5]. (4) Palm Oil - The main 2601 contract of palm oil has first risen and then fallen, fluctuating downward because of the increase in production and the weakness of rapeseed oil. Although the export data is good and the production - reduction cycle is approaching, which limits the decline, the strategy is short - term trading, with support at 9270 and resistance at 9390 [7]. (5) Eggs - The main 2512 contract of eggs has continued to fall because of the large supply pressure. The strategy is to hold a light - position short order, with support at 2932 and resistance at 2996 [9]. (6) Cotton - The main 2601 contract of cotton has oscillated and risen, with the trend turning stronger because of the low - price buying. The strategy is to hold a light - position long order, with support at 13290 and resistance at 13400 [12]. (7) Sugar - The main 2601 contract of sugar has limited rebound and is still in a downward trend because of the supply surplus. The strategy is to hold a light - position short order, with support at 5380 and resistance at 5420 [15]. (8) Apples - The main 2601 contract of apples has risen sharply and then fallen, with severe fluctuations. The market has large differences. The strategy is to close short orders and conduct short - term trading, with support at 8450 and resistance at 8800 [16][19]. (9) Dates - The main 2601 contract of dates has continued to rise after a sharp increase because of the warming demand and declining inventory. The strategy is to hold a light - position long order, with support at 11295 and resistance at 11500 [20].

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core View of the Report The report analyzes the market conditions of various energy and chemical products, indicating that most products are under downward pressure, with short - term macro - driving factors and long - term fundamental factors such as supply - demand imbalances and high inventory contributing to the bearish trend. Although some products have short - term technical rebounds, the overall downward trend remains unchanged [1][2][5]. Summary by Related Catalogs Crude Oil - **Logic**: Friday night's sharp decline was due to Trump's new tariff threat, with short - term macro - driving factors accelerating the downward movement. Fundamentally, OPEC+ production increase and the fourth - quarter demand off - season led to increased supply and decreased demand. Even if there is a technical repair, the amplitude may be limited [1][2]. - **Technical Analysis**: The daily - level shows a medium - term downward structure, and the hourly - level shows a short - term downward structure. The intraday oscillation on the day repaired the downward slope to some extent. The upper short - term pressure level is at 456. The strategy is to hold short positions [2]. Styrene (EB) - **Logic**: Short - term macro - driving factors put pressure on the market, but less than on crude oil. In late October, although there are many plant maintenance plans, new devices are also put into production. High supply remains difficult to decline significantly, and high inventory and low downstream start - up rates lead to a downward - driven fundamental situation [5]. - **Technical Analysis**: The hourly - level shows a short - term downward structure. The late - session position - reduction rebound on the day was a repair action, but the hourly - level downward trend remained unchanged. The upper short - term pressure level is at 6860. The strategy is to hold the remaining short positions at the hourly - level and pay attention to position transfer near the contract change [5]. Rubber - **Logic**: Short - term macro - driving factors put pressure on the market, but less than on crude oil. After the typhoon disturbance, the seasonal decline in tire start - up rates in the downstream demand side exceeded expectations, and rubber supply is likely to increase. High inventory pressure leads to a bearish driving force [7]. - **Technical Analysis**: The daily - level shows a medium - term downward structure, and the hourly - level shows a short - term downward structure. The intraday oscillation on the day continued the repair action, but the hourly - level downward trend remained unchanged. The upper short - term pressure level is at 15450. The strategy is to hold short positions at the hourly - level, with the stop - profit reference at 15450 [7]. Synthetic Rubber (BR) - **Logic**: The main driving factor is the cost - end butadiene. From October to December, although there are planned maintenance of Zhenhai Phase II devices, the output of new butadiene from Jilin Petrochemical and Yulong Petrochemical will be gradually released, increasing supply pressure. Short - term macro - driving factors also lead to a downward trend [9]. - **Technical Analysis**: The daily - level shows a medium - term downward structure, and the hourly - level shows a short - term downward structure. The late - session position - reduction rebound on the day was a repair action, but the downward structure remained unchanged. The upper short - term pressure level is at 11300. The strategy is to hold short positions at the hourly - level, with the stop - profit reference at 11300 [12]. PX - **Logic**: The supply - demand situation continues to weaken slightly, and the main driving factor is the cost - end crude oil [13]. - **Technical Analysis**: The hourly - level shows a short - term downward structure. The late - session position - reduction rebound on the day was a repair action, but the hourly - level downward trend remained unchanged. After the contract change, the upper short - term pressure level for the 01 contract is at 6460 - 6480. The strategy is to hold short positions at the hourly - level, with the stop - profit reference at 6460 - 6480 [16]. PTA - **Logic**: The supply - demand situation continues to weaken slightly, and the main driving factor is the cost - end crude oil [17]. - **Technical Analysis**: The hourly - level shows a short - term downward structure. The late - session position - reduction rebound on the day did not change the downward structure. The upper short - term pressure level is at 4530. The strategy is to hold short positions at the hourly - level established last night, with the stop - profit reference at 4530 [17]. PP - **Logic**: Short - term macro - driving factors bring some pressure. The high - supply pattern remains unchanged, and the downstream demand peak season has not led to significant inventory reduction. The supply - demand improvement expectation has not been fulfilled. More attention should be paid to the cost - end collapse logic due to the decline in crude oil prices [22]. - **Technical Analysis**: The hourly - level shows a short - term downward structure. The intraday oscillation on the day continued the downward structure, and the short - term pressure level moved down to 6740. After taking profit before the holiday, there is no good re - entry point, so continue to wait and see [22]. Methanol - **Logic**: Short - term macro - driving factors have some pressure. Currently, there is high inventory pressure at methanol ports. Attention should be paid to the seasonal decline in the start - up rate of Iranian methanol devices. After the weakening of macro - driving factors, it can be used as a long - position hedge. Unilateral trading still needs to pay attention to the time of production reduction of Iranian devices [24]. - **Technical Analysis**: The daily - level shows a medium - term downward structure, and the short - term shows a downward structure. The position - reduction rebound on the day did not break through the pressure and did not change the downward structure. The upper short - term pressure level is at 2350. The strategy is to cautiously hold the remaining short positions at the hourly - level, with the hourly - line 2350 as the final stop - profit level. For the hedging strategy, methanol can be used as a long - position allocation after breaking through the pressure [27]. PVC - **Logic**: Short - term macro - impacts are bearish, but the actual impact on PVC is not significant. The supply - demand situation remains weak. High - supply pressure persists, and both domestic demand and exports are under pressure due to the real - estate downturn and India's anti - dumping decision. Inventory has continuously increased to the highest level in the same period, with high - supply, weak - demand, and high - inventory pressure remaining [29]. - **Technical Analysis**: The daily - level shows a medium - term downward structure, and the hourly - level shows a short - term downward structure. The intraday oscillation on the day did not change the downward structure. The upper short - term pressure level is at 4800. The strategy is to hold short positions at the hourly - level [29]. Ethylene Glycol (EG) - **Logic**: Short - term macro - driving factors are bearish. The supply - demand situation has not improved, and supply pressure is increasing with capacity expansion. Short - term port inventory has started to accumulate, and the previous low - inventory support is gone [31]. - **Technical Analysis**: The daily - level shows a medium - term downward structure, and the hourly - level shows a downward structure. The late - session position - reduction rebound on the day was a repair action. The upper short - term pressure level is at 4135. The strategy is to hold short positions at the hourly - level [31]. Plastic - **Logic**: The supply - demand change is limited. Attention should be paid to the cost - end collapse logic due to the decline in crude oil prices [35]. - **Technical Analysis**: The daily - level shows a medium - term downward structure, and the hourly - level shows a downward structure. The intraday oscillation on the day did not change the downward structure. The upper short - term pressure level is at 7090. The strategy is to hold the remaining short positions at the hourly - level [35]. Soda Ash - **Logic**: The high - supply and high - inventory pattern has intensified. The demand side of glass is unlikely to improve significantly, and there is no substantial policy intervention on the supply side. The fundamental downward - driving force remains unchanged. Coupled with the return of the macro - downward driving force on Friday night, the downward pressure on the soda ash market continues [36]. - **Technical Analysis**: The hourly - level shows a downward structure. The intraday oscillation on the day did not change the downward structure, and the upper short - term pressure level moved down to 1260. The strategy is to hold the remaining short positions at the hourly - level [36]. Caustic Soda - **Logic**: Some devices in East and North China have maintenance plans, and the supply pressure is expected to ease. The non - aluminum downstream demand has resumed after the holiday, and the inventory pressure has been alleviated. Attention should be paid to the inventory - reduction rhythm of liquid caustic soda. The current situation is still weak, but the valuation is low, so it is not advisable to chase short positions [38]. - **Technical Analysis**: The hourly - level shows a downward structure. The intraday oscillation on the day did not change the downward structure, and the upper short - term pressure level is at 2490. After taking profit before the holiday, there is no good re - entry point, so temporarily wait and see [38].

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The agricultural product sector shows mixed trends. Pig prices are falling due to ample supply and weak demand, while corn prices are rebounding due to factors such as partial grain depot purchases and reduced supply in North China. Egg prices are also falling due to high inventory. Other products like soybean meal, palm oil, etc., each have their own supply - demand and price trends [1]. Summary by Variety 1. Pig - The main 2601 contract of pigs has tumbled. In October, the supply of market - suitable pigs is abundant, and pork consumption has entered the traditional off - season. The contract price has fallen below all moving averages, and the technical indicators are weak. The recommended strategy is to hold a light short position, with support at 11800 and resistance at 12000 [2]. 2. Corn - The main 2601 contract of corn continues to rebound. Although the supply of new grain in the Northeast is increasing, some grain depots are purchasing, and the supply in North China is reduced due to rainy weather. The futures price has stood above the 10 - day moving average, and the recommended strategy is to hold a light long position, with support at 2126 and resistance at 2150 [3]. 3. Soybean Meal - Soybean meal is oscillating downward due to ample supply. The domestic inventory of imported soybeans is increasing, and the spot price difference is under pressure. The contract price is below the moving average system, and the recommended strategy is to hold a light short position, with support at 2890 and resistance at 2928 [5]. 4. Palm Oil - The main 2601 contract of palm oil is narrowly oscillating and weakly fluctuating. The export data of Malaysian palm oil is good, but the domestic supply - demand situation is weak. The recommended strategy is short - term trading, with support at 9262 and resistance at 9390 [9]. 5. Soybean Oil - The main 2601 contract of soybean oil is narrowly fluctuating. The supply of domestic soybeans is sufficient, and the inventory pressure is high. The recommended strategy is short - term trading, with support at 8262 and resistance at 8302 [10]. 6. Egg - The main 2512 contract of eggs has fallen. The egg - laying hen inventory is at a historical high, and the supply is loose. The contract price is below the moving average system, and the recommended strategy is to hold a light short position, with support at 2770 and resistance at 2820 [12]. 7. Cotton - The main 2601 contract of cotton is oscillating and rebounding. The supply of new cotton in Xinjiang is increasing, but the downstream demand is weak. The contract price has rebounded to the 10 - day moving average, and the recommended strategy is to try a light long position, with support at 13290 and resistance at 13400 [16]. 8. Sugar - The main 2601 contract of sugar has a limited low - level rebound. The global sugar supply is in surplus, and the domestic sugar consumption is in the off - season. The contract price is below the moving average system, and the recommended strategy is to hold a light short position, with support at 5382 and resistance at 5420 [17][19]. 9. Apple - The main 2601 contract of apples has broken down. The new apple listing volume is expected to increase, and the high price has led to a wait - and - see attitude among merchants. The contract price has fallen below the 10 - day moving average, and the recommended strategy is to close long positions and try a light short position, with support at 8434 and resistance at 8580 [20]. 10. Red Date - The main 2601 contract of red dates has broken through and risen significantly. The demand is warming up, and the inventory is decreasing. The contract price has stood above the moving average system, and the recommended strategy is to hold a light long position, with support at 11145 and resistance at 11500 [23].

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content Core Viewpoints of the Report - The downward trend in the energy and chemical sector remains clear, and short positions entered before August/September should be held [1] - The short - term decline in the crude oil market is mainly driven by macro factors, while the long - term decline is due to the supply - increase and demand - decrease pressure from the OPEC+ production increase and the fourth - quarter demand off - season [2] - For most products in the energy and chemical sector, both macro and fundamental factors are driving the prices down, with the exception of some products that may have short - term technical rebounds [1] Summary by Relevant Catalogs Crude Oil - Logic: The sharp drop on Friday night was due to Trump's new tariff threat, with short - term trading driven by macro factors. Fundamentally, there is pressure from increased supply and decreased demand. Technical rebounds, if any, may be limited [2] - Technical Analysis: The daily - level shows a medium - term downward structure, and the hourly - level shows a short - term downward structure. The strategy is to hold short positions [2] Benzene Ethylene (EB) - Logic: Macro factors put pressure on the market, and the fundamental situation is bearish due to high supply, high inventory, and low downstream demand [5] - Technical Analysis: The hourly - level shows a short - term downward structure. The strategy is to hold the remaining short positions and pay attention to contract roll - over [5] Rubber - Logic: Macro factors accelerate the decline, and the fundamental situation is bearish due to the sharp decline in downstream demand and the high probability of increased supply [7] - Technical Analysis: The daily - level shows a medium - term downward structure, and the hourly - level shows a short - term downward structure. The strategy is to hold short positions [7] Synthetic Rubber (BR Rubber) - Logic: The main driver is the downward pressure on the cost side of butadiene. Macro factors also have a short - term bearish impact [9] - Technical Analysis: The daily - level shows a medium - term downward structure, and the hourly - level shows a short - term downward structure. The strategy is to hold short positions [12] PX - Logic: The supply - demand situation is slightly weakening, and the main driver is the cost side of crude oil [14] - Technical Analysis: The hourly - level shows a short - term downward structure. The strategy is to hold newly covered short positions [14] PTA - Logic: The supply - demand situation is slightly weakening, and the main driver is the cost side of crude oil [18] - Technical Analysis: The hourly - level shows a short - term downward structure. The strategy is to hold short positions entered last night [18] PP - Logic: Macro factors bring pressure, and the high - supply pattern remains unchanged. The improvement in supply - demand is not realized. Attention should be paid to the cost - collapse logic [20] - Technical Analysis: The hourly - level shows a short - term downward structure. After taking profit before the holiday, there is no good entry point, so it is recommended to wait and see [20] Methanol - Logic: Macro factors have some pressure, and there is high inventory pressure at ports. Attention should be paid to the seasonal decline in Iranian methanol plant operation. It can be used as a long - position hedge [24] - Technical Analysis: The daily - level shows a medium - term and short - term downward structure. The strategy is to hold the remaining short positions cautiously and use 2350 as the final stop - profit point. It can be used as a long - position after breaking through the pressure [24] PVC - Logic: Macro factors have a bearish impact, and the supply - demand situation is weak due to high supply, high inventory, and low demand [27] - Technical Analysis: The daily - level shows a medium - term downward structure, and the hourly - level shows a short - term downward structure. The strategy is to hold short positions [28] Ethylene Glycol (EG) - Logic: Macro factors are bearish, and the supply - demand situation is weak due to increased supply and low demand [29] - Technical Analysis: The daily - level shows a medium - term downward structure, and the hourly - level shows a short - term downward structure. The strategy is to hold short positions [31] Plastic - Logic: The supply - demand situation changes little, and attention should be paid to the cost - collapse logic [33] - Technical Analysis: The daily - level shows a medium - term downward structure, and the hourly - level shows a short - term downward structure. The strategy is to hold the remaining short positions [33] Soda Ash - Logic: The high - supply and high - inventory pattern is intensifying, and the demand is not expected to improve. The downward pressure on the market remains [37] - Technical Analysis: The hourly - level shows a short - term downward structure. The strategy is to hold the remaining short positions [37] Caustic Soda - Logic: There is an expectation of supply reduction due to plant maintenance, and the downstream demand is recovering. The current valuation is low, so it is not advisable to short [39] - Technical Analysis: The hourly - level shows a short - term downward structure. After taking profit before the holiday, there is no good entry point, so it is recommended to wait and see [39]

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The soybean meal rebounded at a low level, but the increase was limited. The arrival of imported soybeans was concentrated, and the supply of soybean meal was sufficient. The price of soybean meal was still under pressure and might continue to fluctuate at a low level [1]. - Peanuts have risen sharply recently and are showing strong momentum. Due to the impact of rainy weather in the main producing areas, the listing of new peanuts has been slow, and the bullish speculation sentiment has increased. The short - term strength is expected to continue [1]. - The rebound of hog and egg futures prices was limited. Due to the high inventory of hogs and laying hens, there was still pressure on the supply side, which restricted the rebound space of futures prices, and they might continue to operate weakly in the future [1]. Summary by Related Catalogs I. Agricultural Products Sector Overview - The soybean meal rebounded at a low level, but the supply was abundant, and the price might continue to fluctuate at a low level. Peanuts rose sharply due to the slow listing of new peanuts in the main producing areas. The rebound of hog and egg futures prices was limited due to high inventory [1]. II. Variety Strategy Tracking (1) Soybean Meal: Low - level Rebound - Focus: The rebound of soybean meal was limited by abundant supply. In September 2025, China imported 12.87 million tons of soybeans, a year - on - year increase of 13.2%. The arrival of imported soybeans in October was still sufficient, and the soybean meal inventory might continue to rise. The aquaculture of rapeseed meal entered the off - season, and the downstream pick - up basically stopped. The main 2601 contract of soybean meal was technically weak, and the strategy was to hold a small short position. The support level was 2400, and the resistance level was 2950 [2]. (2) Peanuts: Strong Rise - Focus: The main 2601 contract of peanuts rose strongly, reaching a two - and - a - half - month high. Due to the influence of rainfall in the main producing areas such as Henan, the listing of new peanuts was slow, and the supply was limited, which boosted the bullish sentiment. The main 2601 contract was technically strong, and the strategy was to hold a small long position. The support level was 8000, and the resistance level was 8100 [3]. (3) Palm Oil: Oscillating Downward - Focus: The main 2601 contract of palm oil continued to oscillate downward, but the decline was limited. India's palm oil imports in September decreased by 16.31% month - on - month, while Malaysia's palm oil exports in the first half of October increased by 12.3% month - on - month. Malaysia lowered its reference price for palm oil in November. The price of palm oil was affected by multiple factors and oscillated at a low level. The strategy was short - term trading. The support level was 9252, and the resistance level was 9396 [5]. (4) Hogs: Oscillating with a Negative Close, Rebound Limited - Focus: The main 2601 contract of hogs first rose and then fell, and the rebound was limited. The supply of hogs was abundant in October, and the pork consumption entered the off - season. The main 2601 contract was technically weak, and the strategy was to hold a small short position. The support level was 12085, and the resistance level was 12400 [7]. (5) Corn: Low - level Rebound - Focus: The main 2601 contract of corn rebounded at a low level. The new corn harvest increased the supply, but the purchase of some grain depots and the bad weather provided support. Some short - sellers took profits at a low level, and the technical buying increased to promote the rebound. The strategy was to close the short position. The support level was 2100, and the resistance level was 2140 [9]. (6) Eggs: Rebound Limited - Focus: The main 2512 contract of eggs had limited rebound. The laying hen inventory was at a historical high, and the supply was loose. The strategy was short - term trading. The support level was 3000, and the resistance level was 3050 [12]. (7) Cotton: Oscillating with a Negative Close, Low - level Fluctuation - Focus: The main 2601 contract of cotton oscillated at a low level. The supply of new cotton in Xinjiang increased, while the downstream demand was weak, and the national commercial cotton inventory rose to 115.54 million tons. The contract was technically weak, and the strategy was short - term trading. The support level was 13200, and the resistance level was 13350 [13][15]. (8) Sugar: Low - level Fluctuation - Focus: The main 2601 contract of Zhengzhou sugar fluctuated at a low level after a sharp decline. The sugar production in Brazil was at a historical high, and there were expectations of increased production in India and Thailand. The domestic sugar supply was abundant, and the consumption entered the off - season. The contract was technically weak, and the strategy was to hold a small short position. The support level was 5382, and the resistance level was 5432 [16]. (9) Apples: High - level Narrow - range Fluctuation - Focus: The main 2601 contract of apples continued to fluctuate in a narrow range at a high level. The late - maturing Fuji apples were postponed due to the weather, but the western producing areas were more active. The contract was technically strong, and the strategy was to hold a small long position. The support level was 8630, and the resistance level was 870 [18]. (10) Red Dates: Narrow - range Oscillation - Focus: The main 2601 contract of red dates continued to oscillate in a narrow range. The new dates in Xinjiang were harvested earlier than last year, and the domestic old - date inventory was still much higher than last year. The strategy was to hold a small long position. The support level was 11020, and the resistance level was 11200 [20].

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided Group 2: Core Viewpoints - The agricultural product sector is generally weak. Two types of meal (soybean meal and rapeseed meal) and oils have declined. Sugar has tumbled, and the downward space may continue to expand. Each variety has different influencing factors and future trends [1]. Group 3: Summary by Variety Soybean Meal and Rapeseed Meal - Both the main 2601 contracts of soybean meal and rapeseed meal have declined significantly, with rapeseed meal leading the decline. The supply is abundant, and the demand has turned weak. Technically, it is weak, and a light - short position is recommended [2]. - In September 2025, the import of soybeans was 12.87 million tons, a month - on - month increase of 4.8% and a year - on - year increase of 13.2%. The soybean inventory has increased, and the meal inventory may continue to rise. The aquaculture of rapeseed meal has entered the off - season, and the downstream pick - up has basically stagnated [2]. - The support and resistance levels of the soybean meal 2601 contract are 2883 and 2920 respectively, and those of the rapeseed meal 2601 contract are 2330 and 2374 respectively [2]. Palm Oil - The main 2601 contract of palm oil has continued to decline in a volatile manner, pressured by technical selling. Technically, it is weak, and short - term trading is recommended [3][6]. - The October MPOB palm oil supply - demand report is bearish. In late September, the palm oil inventory in Malaysia increased by 7.2% to 2.36 million tons, higher than expected. In early October, the production increased by 6.59% month - on - month [3]. - The support and resistance levels of the palm oil 2601 contract are 9280 and 9400 respectively [6]. Live Pigs - The main 2511 contract of live pigs has rebounded technically, but the downward trend has not been reversed. The short position should be held [7]. - The live pig price has continued to fall under the bearish fundamental pressure. After falling to a low level, some short - sellers have covered their positions. The supply - demand situation remains bearish, and the consumption has declined after the festival [7]. - The support and resistance levels of the live pig 2511 contract are 11200 and 11570 respectively [7]. Corn - The main 2511 contract of corn has fluctuated at a low level, pressured by the new corn harvest. Technically, it is weak, and a light - short position is recommended [9]. - The new corn harvest is gradually realized, and the spot price has fallen across the board. The futures price has been pressured downwards, but there has been a large amount of short - covering at the low level [9]. - The support and resistance levels of the corn 2511 contract are 2076 and 2100 respectively [9]. Eggs - The main 2511 contract of eggs has rebounded at a low level, boosted by short - covering. However, the supply is still loose, and the rebound space may be limited. Profitable short positions should be reduced, and short - selling can be considered after the rebound meets resistance [11]. - The egg price has rebounded for two consecutive days due to short - sellers' profit - taking. The terminal replenishment has improved slightly, but the egg - laying hen inventory is at a historical high [11]. - The support and resistance levels of the egg 2511 contract are 2820 and 2875 respectively [11]. Soybean Oil - The main 2601 contract of soybean oil has continued to decline in a volatile manner, pressured by sufficient supply. Short - term trading is recommended [13]. - In September 2025, the import of soybeans was 12.87 million tons, hitting a record high. The domestic oil mill crushing volume has remained high, and the soybean oil inventory has been at a high level. There may be phased inventory accumulation after the festival [13]. - The support and resistance levels of the soybean oil 2601 contract are 8200 and 8300 respectively [13]. Cotton - The main 2601 contract of cotton has continued to fluctuate at a low level, and the rebound has been blocked. Short - term trading is recommended [15]. - The new cotton in the Xinjiang main production area has entered the peak harvest period, the supply is abundant, the downstream demand is weak, and the commercial inventory has increased slightly [15]. - The support and resistance levels of the cotton 2601 contract are 13200 and 13370 respectively [15]. Sugar - The main 2601 contract of sugar has tumbled, dragged down by the sharp decline in the external market. A light - short position is recommended [17]. - The overseas sugar production is high, and the supply surplus is obvious. The domestic sugar consumption has entered the off - season, and there are multiple sugar sources in the market [17]. - The support and resistance levels of the sugar 2601 contract are 5382 and 5450 respectively [17]. Apples - The main 2601 contract of apples has fluctuated narrowly at a high level, showing a strong trend. A light - long position is recommended [19]. - The apple picking in Shaanxi has been受阻, and the high - quality apple price is stable. The late - maturing Fuji apples in Shandong have not been fully listed, and some merchants have gone to Liaoning to purchase [19]. - The support and resistance levels of the apple 2601 contract are 8650 and 8720 respectively [19]. Red Dates - The main 2601 contract of red dates has continued to oscillate narrowly, and the listing rhythm of new dates affects the market. A light - long position is recommended [22]. - The new dates in the Xinjiang main production area are about to be harvested, and the inventory of old dates is slowly decreasing but still much higher than last year [22]. - The support and resistance levels of the red date 2601 contract are 10990 and 11160 respectively [22].

Report Industry Investment Rating - The report maintains a bearish outlook on the energy and chemical sector, suggesting that investors hold existing short positions [1]. Core Viewpoints - The overall market in the energy and chemical sector is dominated by bears, with most varieties showing downward trends driven by both macro - factors and fundamental supply - demand imbalances. While some short - term technical repairs may occur, the downward pressure remains significant [1][2]. Summary by Variety Crude Oil - **Logic**: The sharp drop on Friday night was due to Trump's new tariff threat, with short - term trading driven by macro factors. Fundamentally, there is pressure from increased supply and decreased demand due to OPEC+ production increases and the fourth - quarter demand slump. Even if there is a technical repair, the amplitude may be limited [2]. - **Technical Analysis**: The daily - level shows a medium - term downward structure, and the hourly - level shows a short - term downward structure. The trading volume increased today, and the price continued to fall. The short - term resistance is at 465 - 473. The strategy is to hold short positions [2]. Styrene (EB) - **Logic**: Similar to crude oil, it is pressured by macro factors, but less affected. Despite some plant maintenance plans in late October, new plant launches will keep the high - supply situation. High inventory and low downstream demand also contribute to the downward - facing fundamentals [5]. - **Technical Analysis**: The hourly - level shows a short - term downward structure. Today, the price reached a new low with increased positions. The short - term resistance is at 6860. The strategy is to hold the remaining short positions and pay attention to contract roll - over [5]. Rubber - **Logic**: Macro factors accelerate the decline but are not the main driver. After the typhoon, the downstream tire industry's seasonal decline in demand is greater than expected, and supply is likely to increase, resulting in high inventory pressure [7]. - **Technical Analysis**: The daily - level shows a medium - term downward structure, and the hourly - level shows a downward structure. The price dropped to a new low today. The short - term resistance is at 15450. The strategy is to hold short positions with a stop - profit at 15450 [7]. Synthetic Rubber (BR) - **Logic**: In the short term, it is pressured by macro factors. The supply of butadiene, the raw material, is expected to increase, driving the price of synthetic rubber down. The short - term market is also affected by macro - downward drivers after Trump's tariff threat [11]. - **Technical Analysis**: The daily - level shows a medium - term downward structure, and the hourly - level shows a short - term downward structure. The price reached a new low with increased positions today. The short - term resistance is at 11300. The strategy is to hold short positions with a stop - profit at 11300 [13]. PX - **Logic**: The supply - demand situation continues to weaken slightly, mainly driven by the cost of crude oil [15]. - **Technical Analysis**: The hourly - level shows a short - term downward structure. The price reached a new low with increased positions today. The short - term resistance is at 6460 - 6480. The strategy is to hold short positions with a stop - profit at 6460 - 6480 [15]. PTA - **Logic**: The supply - demand situation continues to weaken slightly, mainly driven by the cost of crude oil [18]. - **Technical Analysis**: The hourly - level shows a short - term downward structure. The price reached a new low with increased positions today. The short - term resistance is at 4530. The strategy is to hold short positions with a stop - profit at 4530 [18]. PP - **Logic**: Short - term macro factors bring some pressure. The high - supply situation remains unchanged, and the expected improvement in supply - demand has not been realized. Attention should be paid to the cost - collapse logic due to the decline in crude oil prices [22]. - **Technical Analysis**: The hourly - level shows a short - term downward structure. The price reached a new low with increased positions today. The short - term resistance is at 6740. After taking profits before the holiday, there is no good entry point, so the strategy is to wait and see [22]. Methanol - **Logic**: Short - term macro factors have some pressure. There is still high inventory pressure at ports. Attention should be paid to the seasonal decline in the operation of Iranian methanol plants. It can be used as a long - pairing hedge after the macro - driving force weakens. Unilateral trading should focus on the time when Iranian plants reduce production [24]. - **Technical Analysis**: The daily - level shows a medium - term downward structure, and the short - term shows a downward structure. The price reached a new low with increased positions today. The short - term resistance is at 2350. The strategy is to hold the remaining short positions cautiously with a stop - profit at 2350. It can be used as a long - pairing after the price breaks through the resistance [24]. PVC - **Logic**: The short - term macro impact is negative but not significant. The supply - demand situation remains weak, with high supply, low demand, and high inventory. The domestic demand and exports are under pressure [27]. - **Technical Analysis**: The daily - level shows a medium - term downward structure, and the hourly - level shows a short - term downward structure. The price reached a new low with increased positions today. The short - term resistance is at 4800. The strategy is to hold short positions [27]. Ethylene Glycol (EG) - **Logic**: Affected by short - term macro factors, the supply - demand situation has not improved. The supply pressure is increasing with capacity expansion, and the port inventory is starting to accumulate. The previous low - inventory support is gone [29]. - **Technical Analysis**: The daily - level shows a medium - term downward structure, and the hourly - level shows a downward structure. The price reached a new low with increased positions today. The short - term resistance is at 4135. The strategy is to hold short positions [29]. Plastic - **Logic**: The supply - demand change is limited. Attention should be paid to the cost - collapse logic due to the decline in crude oil prices [31]. - **Technical Analysis**: The daily - level shows a medium - term downward structure, and the hourly - level shows a downward structure. The price reached a new low with increased positions today. The short - term resistance is at 7090. The strategy is to hold the remaining short positions [31]. Soda Ash - **Logic**: The high - supply and high - inventory situation is intensifying. The demand from the glass industry is unlikely to improve significantly, and there is no substantial policy intervention on the supply side. With the return of the macro - downward driver, the downward pressure on the soda ash market continues [35]. - **Technical Analysis**: The hourly - level shows a downward structure. The price reached a new low with increased positions today. The short - term resistance is at 1260. The strategy is to hold the remaining short positions [35]. Caustic Soda - **Logic**: Some plants in East and North China are expected to undergo maintenance, and the downstream non - aluminum demand will resume after the holiday, which may relieve the inventory pressure. However, the current valuation is low, and short - selling is not recommended [37]. - **Technical Analysis**: The hourly - level shows a downward structure. The price reached a new low with increased positions today. The short - term resistance is at 2490. After taking profits before the holiday, there is no good entry point, so the strategy is to wait and see [37].