Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The agricultural product sector shows mixed trends. Pig prices are falling due to ample supply and weak demand, while corn prices are rebounding due to factors such as partial grain depot purchases and reduced supply in North China. Egg prices are also falling due to high inventory. Other products like soybean meal, palm oil, etc., each have their own supply - demand and price trends [1]. Summary by Variety 1. Pig - The main 2601 contract of pigs has tumbled. In October, the supply of market - suitable pigs is abundant, and pork consumption has entered the traditional off - season. The contract price has fallen below all moving averages, and the technical indicators are weak. The recommended strategy is to hold a light short position, with support at 11800 and resistance at 12000 [2]. 2. Corn - The main 2601 contract of corn continues to rebound. Although the supply of new grain in the Northeast is increasing, some grain depots are purchasing, and the supply in North China is reduced due to rainy weather. The futures price has stood above the 10 - day moving average, and the recommended strategy is to hold a light long position, with support at 2126 and resistance at 2150 [3]. 3. Soybean Meal - Soybean meal is oscillating downward due to ample supply. The domestic inventory of imported soybeans is increasing, and the spot price difference is under pressure. The contract price is below the moving average system, and the recommended strategy is to hold a light short position, with support at 2890 and resistance at 2928 [5]. 4. Palm Oil - The main 2601 contract of palm oil is narrowly oscillating and weakly fluctuating. The export data of Malaysian palm oil is good, but the domestic supply - demand situation is weak. The recommended strategy is short - term trading, with support at 9262 and resistance at 9390 [9]. 5. Soybean Oil - The main 2601 contract of soybean oil is narrowly fluctuating. The supply of domestic soybeans is sufficient, and the inventory pressure is high. The recommended strategy is short - term trading, with support at 8262 and resistance at 8302 [10]. 6. Egg - The main 2512 contract of eggs has fallen. The egg - laying hen inventory is at a historical high, and the supply is loose. The contract price is below the moving average system, and the recommended strategy is to hold a light short position, with support at 2770 and resistance at 2820 [12]. 7. Cotton - The main 2601 contract of cotton is oscillating and rebounding. The supply of new cotton in Xinjiang is increasing, but the downstream demand is weak. The contract price has rebounded to the 10 - day moving average, and the recommended strategy is to try a light long position, with support at 13290 and resistance at 13400 [16]. 8. Sugar - The main 2601 contract of sugar has a limited low - level rebound. The global sugar supply is in surplus, and the domestic sugar consumption is in the off - season. The contract price is below the moving average system, and the recommended strategy is to hold a light short position, with support at 5382 and resistance at 5420 [17][19]. 9. Apple - The main 2601 contract of apples has broken down. The new apple listing volume is expected to increase, and the high price has led to a wait - and - see attitude among merchants. The contract price has fallen below the 10 - day moving average, and the recommended strategy is to close long positions and try a light short position, with support at 8434 and resistance at 8580 [20]. 10. Red Date - The main 2601 contract of red dates has broken through and risen significantly. The demand is warming up, and the inventory is decreasing. The contract price has stood above the moving average system, and the recommended strategy is to hold a light long position, with support at 11145 and resistance at 11500 [23].

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content Core Viewpoints of the Report - The downward trend in the energy and chemical sector remains clear, and short positions entered before August/September should be held [1] - The short - term decline in the crude oil market is mainly driven by macro factors, while the long - term decline is due to the supply - increase and demand - decrease pressure from the OPEC+ production increase and the fourth - quarter demand off - season [2] - For most products in the energy and chemical sector, both macro and fundamental factors are driving the prices down, with the exception of some products that may have short - term technical rebounds [1] Summary by Relevant Catalogs Crude Oil - Logic: The sharp drop on Friday night was due to Trump's new tariff threat, with short - term trading driven by macro factors. Fundamentally, there is pressure from increased supply and decreased demand. Technical rebounds, if any, may be limited [2] - Technical Analysis: The daily - level shows a medium - term downward structure, and the hourly - level shows a short - term downward structure. The strategy is to hold short positions [2] Benzene Ethylene (EB) - Logic: Macro factors put pressure on the market, and the fundamental situation is bearish due to high supply, high inventory, and low downstream demand [5] - Technical Analysis: The hourly - level shows a short - term downward structure. The strategy is to hold the remaining short positions and pay attention to contract roll - over [5] Rubber - Logic: Macro factors accelerate the decline, and the fundamental situation is bearish due to the sharp decline in downstream demand and the high probability of increased supply [7] - Technical Analysis: The daily - level shows a medium - term downward structure, and the hourly - level shows a short - term downward structure. The strategy is to hold short positions [7] Synthetic Rubber (BR Rubber) - Logic: The main driver is the downward pressure on the cost side of butadiene. Macro factors also have a short - term bearish impact [9] - Technical Analysis: The daily - level shows a medium - term downward structure, and the hourly - level shows a short - term downward structure. The strategy is to hold short positions [12] PX - Logic: The supply - demand situation is slightly weakening, and the main driver is the cost side of crude oil [14] - Technical Analysis: The hourly - level shows a short - term downward structure. The strategy is to hold newly covered short positions [14] PTA - Logic: The supply - demand situation is slightly weakening, and the main driver is the cost side of crude oil [18] - Technical Analysis: The hourly - level shows a short - term downward structure. The strategy is to hold short positions entered last night [18] PP - Logic: Macro factors bring pressure, and the high - supply pattern remains unchanged. The improvement in supply - demand is not realized. Attention should be paid to the cost - collapse logic [20] - Technical Analysis: The hourly - level shows a short - term downward structure. After taking profit before the holiday, there is no good entry point, so it is recommended to wait and see [20] Methanol - Logic: Macro factors have some pressure, and there is high inventory pressure at ports. Attention should be paid to the seasonal decline in Iranian methanol plant operation. It can be used as a long - position hedge [24] - Technical Analysis: The daily - level shows a medium - term and short - term downward structure. The strategy is to hold the remaining short positions cautiously and use 2350 as the final stop - profit point. It can be used as a long - position after breaking through the pressure [24] PVC - Logic: Macro factors have a bearish impact, and the supply - demand situation is weak due to high supply, high inventory, and low demand [27] - Technical Analysis: The daily - level shows a medium - term downward structure, and the hourly - level shows a short - term downward structure. The strategy is to hold short positions [28] Ethylene Glycol (EG) - Logic: Macro factors are bearish, and the supply - demand situation is weak due to increased supply and low demand [29] - Technical Analysis: The daily - level shows a medium - term downward structure, and the hourly - level shows a short - term downward structure. The strategy is to hold short positions [31] Plastic - Logic: The supply - demand situation changes little, and attention should be paid to the cost - collapse logic [33] - Technical Analysis: The daily - level shows a medium - term downward structure, and the hourly - level shows a short - term downward structure. The strategy is to hold the remaining short positions [33] Soda Ash - Logic: The high - supply and high - inventory pattern is intensifying, and the demand is not expected to improve. The downward pressure on the market remains [37] - Technical Analysis: The hourly - level shows a short - term downward structure. The strategy is to hold the remaining short positions [37] Caustic Soda - Logic: There is an expectation of supply reduction due to plant maintenance, and the downstream demand is recovering. The current valuation is low, so it is not advisable to short [39] - Technical Analysis: The hourly - level shows a short - term downward structure. After taking profit before the holiday, there is no good entry point, so it is recommended to wait and see [39]

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The soybean meal rebounded at a low level, but the increase was limited. The arrival of imported soybeans was concentrated, and the supply of soybean meal was sufficient. The price of soybean meal was still under pressure and might continue to fluctuate at a low level [1]. - Peanuts have risen sharply recently and are showing strong momentum. Due to the impact of rainy weather in the main producing areas, the listing of new peanuts has been slow, and the bullish speculation sentiment has increased. The short - term strength is expected to continue [1]. - The rebound of hog and egg futures prices was limited. Due to the high inventory of hogs and laying hens, there was still pressure on the supply side, which restricted the rebound space of futures prices, and they might continue to operate weakly in the future [1]. Summary by Related Catalogs I. Agricultural Products Sector Overview - The soybean meal rebounded at a low level, but the supply was abundant, and the price might continue to fluctuate at a low level. Peanuts rose sharply due to the slow listing of new peanuts in the main producing areas. The rebound of hog and egg futures prices was limited due to high inventory [1]. II. Variety Strategy Tracking (1) Soybean Meal: Low - level Rebound - Focus: The rebound of soybean meal was limited by abundant supply. In September 2025, China imported 12.87 million tons of soybeans, a year - on - year increase of 13.2%. The arrival of imported soybeans in October was still sufficient, and the soybean meal inventory might continue to rise. The aquaculture of rapeseed meal entered the off - season, and the downstream pick - up basically stopped. The main 2601 contract of soybean meal was technically weak, and the strategy was to hold a small short position. The support level was 2400, and the resistance level was 2950 [2]. (2) Peanuts: Strong Rise - Focus: The main 2601 contract of peanuts rose strongly, reaching a two - and - a - half - month high. Due to the influence of rainfall in the main producing areas such as Henan, the listing of new peanuts was slow, and the supply was limited, which boosted the bullish sentiment. The main 2601 contract was technically strong, and the strategy was to hold a small long position. The support level was 8000, and the resistance level was 8100 [3]. (3) Palm Oil: Oscillating Downward - Focus: The main 2601 contract of palm oil continued to oscillate downward, but the decline was limited. India's palm oil imports in September decreased by 16.31% month - on - month, while Malaysia's palm oil exports in the first half of October increased by 12.3% month - on - month. Malaysia lowered its reference price for palm oil in November. The price of palm oil was affected by multiple factors and oscillated at a low level. The strategy was short - term trading. The support level was 9252, and the resistance level was 9396 [5]. (4) Hogs: Oscillating with a Negative Close, Rebound Limited - Focus: The main 2601 contract of hogs first rose and then fell, and the rebound was limited. The supply of hogs was abundant in October, and the pork consumption entered the off - season. The main 2601 contract was technically weak, and the strategy was to hold a small short position. The support level was 12085, and the resistance level was 12400 [7]. (5) Corn: Low - level Rebound - Focus: The main 2601 contract of corn rebounded at a low level. The new corn harvest increased the supply, but the purchase of some grain depots and the bad weather provided support. Some short - sellers took profits at a low level, and the technical buying increased to promote the rebound. The strategy was to close the short position. The support level was 2100, and the resistance level was 2140 [9]. (6) Eggs: Rebound Limited - Focus: The main 2512 contract of eggs had limited rebound. The laying hen inventory was at a historical high, and the supply was loose. The strategy was short - term trading. The support level was 3000, and the resistance level was 3050 [12]. (7) Cotton: Oscillating with a Negative Close, Low - level Fluctuation - Focus: The main 2601 contract of cotton oscillated at a low level. The supply of new cotton in Xinjiang increased, while the downstream demand was weak, and the national commercial cotton inventory rose to 115.54 million tons. The contract was technically weak, and the strategy was short - term trading. The support level was 13200, and the resistance level was 13350 [13][15]. (8) Sugar: Low - level Fluctuation - Focus: The main 2601 contract of Zhengzhou sugar fluctuated at a low level after a sharp decline. The sugar production in Brazil was at a historical high, and there were expectations of increased production in India and Thailand. The domestic sugar supply was abundant, and the consumption entered the off - season. The contract was technically weak, and the strategy was to hold a small short position. The support level was 5382, and the resistance level was 5432 [16]. (9) Apples: High - level Narrow - range Fluctuation - Focus: The main 2601 contract of apples continued to fluctuate in a narrow range at a high level. The late - maturing Fuji apples were postponed due to the weather, but the western producing areas were more active. The contract was technically strong, and the strategy was to hold a small long position. The support level was 8630, and the resistance level was 870 [18]. (10) Red Dates: Narrow - range Oscillation - Focus: The main 2601 contract of red dates continued to oscillate in a narrow range. The new dates in Xinjiang were harvested earlier than last year, and the domestic old - date inventory was still much higher than last year. The strategy was to hold a small long position. The support level was 11020, and the resistance level was 11200 [20].

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided Group 2: Core Viewpoints - The agricultural product sector is generally weak. Two types of meal (soybean meal and rapeseed meal) and oils have declined. Sugar has tumbled, and the downward space may continue to expand. Each variety has different influencing factors and future trends [1]. Group 3: Summary by Variety Soybean Meal and Rapeseed Meal - Both the main 2601 contracts of soybean meal and rapeseed meal have declined significantly, with rapeseed meal leading the decline. The supply is abundant, and the demand has turned weak. Technically, it is weak, and a light - short position is recommended [2]. - In September 2025, the import of soybeans was 12.87 million tons, a month - on - month increase of 4.8% and a year - on - year increase of 13.2%. The soybean inventory has increased, and the meal inventory may continue to rise. The aquaculture of rapeseed meal has entered the off - season, and the downstream pick - up has basically stagnated [2]. - The support and resistance levels of the soybean meal 2601 contract are 2883 and 2920 respectively, and those of the rapeseed meal 2601 contract are 2330 and 2374 respectively [2]. Palm Oil - The main 2601 contract of palm oil has continued to decline in a volatile manner, pressured by technical selling. Technically, it is weak, and short - term trading is recommended [3][6]. - The October MPOB palm oil supply - demand report is bearish. In late September, the palm oil inventory in Malaysia increased by 7.2% to 2.36 million tons, higher than expected. In early October, the production increased by 6.59% month - on - month [3]. - The support and resistance levels of the palm oil 2601 contract are 9280 and 9400 respectively [6]. Live Pigs - The main 2511 contract of live pigs has rebounded technically, but the downward trend has not been reversed. The short position should be held [7]. - The live pig price has continued to fall under the bearish fundamental pressure. After falling to a low level, some short - sellers have covered their positions. The supply - demand situation remains bearish, and the consumption has declined after the festival [7]. - The support and resistance levels of the live pig 2511 contract are 11200 and 11570 respectively [7]. Corn - The main 2511 contract of corn has fluctuated at a low level, pressured by the new corn harvest. Technically, it is weak, and a light - short position is recommended [9]. - The new corn harvest is gradually realized, and the spot price has fallen across the board. The futures price has been pressured downwards, but there has been a large amount of short - covering at the low level [9]. - The support and resistance levels of the corn 2511 contract are 2076 and 2100 respectively [9]. Eggs - The main 2511 contract of eggs has rebounded at a low level, boosted by short - covering. However, the supply is still loose, and the rebound space may be limited. Profitable short positions should be reduced, and short - selling can be considered after the rebound meets resistance [11]. - The egg price has rebounded for two consecutive days due to short - sellers' profit - taking. The terminal replenishment has improved slightly, but the egg - laying hen inventory is at a historical high [11]. - The support and resistance levels of the egg 2511 contract are 2820 and 2875 respectively [11]. Soybean Oil - The main 2601 contract of soybean oil has continued to decline in a volatile manner, pressured by sufficient supply. Short - term trading is recommended [13]. - In September 2025, the import of soybeans was 12.87 million tons, hitting a record high. The domestic oil mill crushing volume has remained high, and the soybean oil inventory has been at a high level. There may be phased inventory accumulation after the festival [13]. - The support and resistance levels of the soybean oil 2601 contract are 8200 and 8300 respectively [13]. Cotton - The main 2601 contract of cotton has continued to fluctuate at a low level, and the rebound has been blocked. Short - term trading is recommended [15]. - The new cotton in the Xinjiang main production area has entered the peak harvest period, the supply is abundant, the downstream demand is weak, and the commercial inventory has increased slightly [15]. - The support and resistance levels of the cotton 2601 contract are 13200 and 13370 respectively [15]. Sugar - The main 2601 contract of sugar has tumbled, dragged down by the sharp decline in the external market. A light - short position is recommended [17]. - The overseas sugar production is high, and the supply surplus is obvious. The domestic sugar consumption has entered the off - season, and there are multiple sugar sources in the market [17]. - The support and resistance levels of the sugar 2601 contract are 5382 and 5450 respectively [17]. Apples - The main 2601 contract of apples has fluctuated narrowly at a high level, showing a strong trend. A light - long position is recommended [19]. - The apple picking in Shaanxi has been受阻, and the high - quality apple price is stable. The late - maturing Fuji apples in Shandong have not been fully listed, and some merchants have gone to Liaoning to purchase [19]. - The support and resistance levels of the apple 2601 contract are 8650 and 8720 respectively [19]. Red Dates - The main 2601 contract of red dates has continued to oscillate narrowly, and the listing rhythm of new dates affects the market. A light - long position is recommended [22]. - The new dates in the Xinjiang main production area are about to be harvested, and the inventory of old dates is slowly decreasing but still much higher than last year [22]. - The support and resistance levels of the red date 2601 contract are 10990 and 11160 respectively [22].

Report Industry Investment Rating - The report maintains a bearish outlook on the energy and chemical sector, suggesting that investors hold existing short positions [1]. Core Viewpoints - The overall market in the energy and chemical sector is dominated by bears, with most varieties showing downward trends driven by both macro - factors and fundamental supply - demand imbalances. While some short - term technical repairs may occur, the downward pressure remains significant [1][2]. Summary by Variety Crude Oil - **Logic**: The sharp drop on Friday night was due to Trump's new tariff threat, with short - term trading driven by macro factors. Fundamentally, there is pressure from increased supply and decreased demand due to OPEC+ production increases and the fourth - quarter demand slump. Even if there is a technical repair, the amplitude may be limited [2]. - **Technical Analysis**: The daily - level shows a medium - term downward structure, and the hourly - level shows a short - term downward structure. The trading volume increased today, and the price continued to fall. The short - term resistance is at 465 - 473. The strategy is to hold short positions [2]. Styrene (EB) - **Logic**: Similar to crude oil, it is pressured by macro factors, but less affected. Despite some plant maintenance plans in late October, new plant launches will keep the high - supply situation. High inventory and low downstream demand also contribute to the downward - facing fundamentals [5]. - **Technical Analysis**: The hourly - level shows a short - term downward structure. Today, the price reached a new low with increased positions. The short - term resistance is at 6860. The strategy is to hold the remaining short positions and pay attention to contract roll - over [5]. Rubber - **Logic**: Macro factors accelerate the decline but are not the main driver. After the typhoon, the downstream tire industry's seasonal decline in demand is greater than expected, and supply is likely to increase, resulting in high inventory pressure [7]. - **Technical Analysis**: The daily - level shows a medium - term downward structure, and the hourly - level shows a downward structure. The price dropped to a new low today. The short - term resistance is at 15450. The strategy is to hold short positions with a stop - profit at 15450 [7]. Synthetic Rubber (BR) - **Logic**: In the short term, it is pressured by macro factors. The supply of butadiene, the raw material, is expected to increase, driving the price of synthetic rubber down. The short - term market is also affected by macro - downward drivers after Trump's tariff threat [11]. - **Technical Analysis**: The daily - level shows a medium - term downward structure, and the hourly - level shows a short - term downward structure. The price reached a new low with increased positions today. The short - term resistance is at 11300. The strategy is to hold short positions with a stop - profit at 11300 [13]. PX - **Logic**: The supply - demand situation continues to weaken slightly, mainly driven by the cost of crude oil [15]. - **Technical Analysis**: The hourly - level shows a short - term downward structure. The price reached a new low with increased positions today. The short - term resistance is at 6460 - 6480. The strategy is to hold short positions with a stop - profit at 6460 - 6480 [15]. PTA - **Logic**: The supply - demand situation continues to weaken slightly, mainly driven by the cost of crude oil [18]. - **Technical Analysis**: The hourly - level shows a short - term downward structure. The price reached a new low with increased positions today. The short - term resistance is at 4530. The strategy is to hold short positions with a stop - profit at 4530 [18]. PP - **Logic**: Short - term macro factors bring some pressure. The high - supply situation remains unchanged, and the expected improvement in supply - demand has not been realized. Attention should be paid to the cost - collapse logic due to the decline in crude oil prices [22]. - **Technical Analysis**: The hourly - level shows a short - term downward structure. The price reached a new low with increased positions today. The short - term resistance is at 6740. After taking profits before the holiday, there is no good entry point, so the strategy is to wait and see [22]. Methanol - **Logic**: Short - term macro factors have some pressure. There is still high inventory pressure at ports. Attention should be paid to the seasonal decline in the operation of Iranian methanol plants. It can be used as a long - pairing hedge after the macro - driving force weakens. Unilateral trading should focus on the time when Iranian plants reduce production [24]. - **Technical Analysis**: The daily - level shows a medium - term downward structure, and the short - term shows a downward structure. The price reached a new low with increased positions today. The short - term resistance is at 2350. The strategy is to hold the remaining short positions cautiously with a stop - profit at 2350. It can be used as a long - pairing after the price breaks through the resistance [24]. PVC - **Logic**: The short - term macro impact is negative but not significant. The supply - demand situation remains weak, with high supply, low demand, and high inventory. The domestic demand and exports are under pressure [27]. - **Technical Analysis**: The daily - level shows a medium - term downward structure, and the hourly - level shows a short - term downward structure. The price reached a new low with increased positions today. The short - term resistance is at 4800. The strategy is to hold short positions [27]. Ethylene Glycol (EG) - **Logic**: Affected by short - term macro factors, the supply - demand situation has not improved. The supply pressure is increasing with capacity expansion, and the port inventory is starting to accumulate. The previous low - inventory support is gone [29]. - **Technical Analysis**: The daily - level shows a medium - term downward structure, and the hourly - level shows a downward structure. The price reached a new low with increased positions today. The short - term resistance is at 4135. The strategy is to hold short positions [29]. Plastic - **Logic**: The supply - demand change is limited. Attention should be paid to the cost - collapse logic due to the decline in crude oil prices [31]. - **Technical Analysis**: The daily - level shows a medium - term downward structure, and the hourly - level shows a downward structure. The price reached a new low with increased positions today. The short - term resistance is at 7090. The strategy is to hold the remaining short positions [31]. Soda Ash - **Logic**: The high - supply and high - inventory situation is intensifying. The demand from the glass industry is unlikely to improve significantly, and there is no substantial policy intervention on the supply side. With the return of the macro - downward driver, the downward pressure on the soda ash market continues [35]. - **Technical Analysis**: The hourly - level shows a downward structure. The price reached a new low with increased positions today. The short - term resistance is at 1260. The strategy is to hold the remaining short positions [35]. Caustic Soda - **Logic**: Some plants in East and North China are expected to undergo maintenance, and the downstream non - aluminum demand will resume after the holiday, which may relieve the inventory pressure. However, the current valuation is low, and short - selling is not recommended [37]. - **Technical Analysis**: The hourly - level shows a downward structure. The price reached a new low with increased positions today. The short - term resistance is at 2490. After taking profits before the holiday, there is no good entry point, so the strategy is to wait and see [37].

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core View of the Report The agricultural product sector shows a mixed performance. Pig and corn prices are in a significant downward trend, while palm oil prices are expected to oscillate at a high level. Other products such as eggs, soybean meal, and others also have their own market characteristics and trends, with different influencing factors and corresponding trading strategies [1]. Summary by Related Catalogs 1. Agricultural Product Sector Overview - Pig prices continue to drop to new lows due to high supply pressure from active slaughter by farmers and a post - holiday decline in consumption. Corn prices also fall significantly because of the concentrated listing of new corn. Palm oil prices adjust downward, but the decline is limited, and it may show a high - level oscillation in the future [1]. 2. Variety Strategy Tracking (1) Pig - Focus: The main 2511 contract of pigs continues to fall, hitting a new low. - Reasons: Farmers actively slaughter pigs, leading to a concentrated release of supply pressure. After the holiday, consumption declines, and there are sufficient meat substitutes, which restricts pig prices. - Technical analysis: The contract price is below the moving average system, and the MACD green column expands significantly. - Strategy: Continue to short - sell. Support is at 11100, and resistance is at 11300 [2][5]. (2) Corn - Focus: The main 2511 contract of corn continues to fall to a 10 - month low. - Reasons: The new corn harvest is gradually realized, and the concentrated listing increases supply pressure. - Technical analysis: The contract price is below the moving average system, and the MACD green column expands. - Strategy: Hold a small - position short position. Support is at 2080, and resistance is at 2100 [4]. (3) Palm Oil - Focus: The main 2601 contract of palm oil oscillates downward. - Reasons: The MPOB October report is bearish, and crude oil prices fall. However, the export of Malaysian palm oil remains strong, and the approaching seasonal production reduction limits the decline. - Technical analysis: The contract price breaks below the 40 - day moving average. - Strategy: Close long positions and conduct short - term trading. Support is at 9282, and resistance is at 9400 [7]. (4) Eggs - Focus: The main 2511 contract of eggs first declines and then rises, reducing the decline. - Reasons: The egg - laying hen inventory is at a historical high, and post - holiday demand drops, resulting in an increase in inventory. - Technical analysis: The contract price is far below the moving average, and the MACD green column expands after a death cross. - Strategy: Continue to short - sell. Support is at 2770, and resistance is at 2850 [10]. (5) Soybean Meal - Focus: The main 2601 contract of soybean meal first rises and then falls, with a narrow - range oscillation. - Reasons: Sino - US economic and trade relations are tense, but the short - term supply of imported soybeans is abundant. - Technical analysis: The contract forms a doji with a long upper shadow, and the MACD green column continues. - Strategy: Hold a small - position short position. Support is at 2910, and resistance is at 2945 [11][13]. (6) Soybean Oil - Focus: The main 2601 contract of soybean oil oscillates downward. - Reasons: The supply of imported soybeans is abundant, and the high - level oil mill crushing increases soybean oil supply. - Technical analysis: The contract price retraces the short - term moving average. - Strategy: Conduct short - term trading. Support is at 8238, and resistance is at 8360 [14][19]. (7) Cotton - Focus: The main 2601 contract of cotton continues to oscillate at a low level. - Reasons: The new cotton harvest in Xinjiang is expected to increase, and the demand season is not as expected. - Technical analysis: The contract rebounds slightly, and the MACD green column shrinks. - Strategy: Conduct short - term trading. Support is at 13200, and resistance is at 13400 [18]. (8) Apples - Focus: The main 2601 contract of apples adjusts at a high level. - Reasons: Apple picking in some areas is affected, and the market supply is not large. - Technical analysis: The contract price is above the moving average system, and the MACD red column continues. - Strategy: Hold a small - position long position. Support is at 8623, and resistance is at 8800 [20]. (9) Red Dates - Focus: The main 2601 contract of red dates fluctuates in a narrow range. - Reasons: New red dates are about to be harvested, and the market is affected by the harvest rhythm. - Technical analysis: The contract is in a rebound rhythm. - Strategy: Hold a small - position long position. Support is at 10995, and resistance is at 11250 [23]. (10) Sugar - Focus: The main 2601 contract of sugar oscillates downward. - Reasons: Domestic sugar mills start production, and imported sugar supply remains high. - Technical analysis: The contract price breaks below the moving average system. - Strategy: Close long positions and establish a small - position short position. Support is at 5424, and resistance is at 5482 [24][26].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided on the industry investment rating 2. Core View - As the National Day holiday approaches in 2025, the domestic futures market will be closed for eight days while the international futures market remains open with significant price fluctuations, which will greatly impact the post - holiday trends of domestic futures. For the agricultural products sector closely linked to international markets, traders should carefully weigh risks and opportunities when holding positions during the holiday. The general principle is to clear positions, and if holding positions, it is advisable to hold profitable positions with light volume and set clear stop - loss strategies [1]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1. General Strategy for Agricultural Products - Due to the long - term closure of the domestic futures market during the National Day holiday and the continuous trading of the international market, there are uncertainties in the post - holiday market. Traders should mainly clear positions, and if holding positions, they should hold profitable positions with light volume and set stop - loss strategies [1]. 3.2. Soybean Meal and Rapeseed Meal - **Fundamentals**: The soybean meal market is affected by multiple factors. The repeated export tariffs in Argentina have led to a significant decline in soybean meal futures prices, and the domestic supply - demand situation is loose. The rapeseed meal market is relatively rigid, and its price is affected by soybean meal. The improvement of Sino - US economic and trade relations will increase the pressure on soybean meal [2]. - **Strategy**: Hold light short positions in soybean meal during the holiday with stop - loss set, and conservative investors should close positions [2]. 3.3. Palm Oil, Soybean Oil, and Rapeseed Oil - **Fundamentals**: The fundamentals of different oil varieties vary. Soybean oil supply is abundant, rapeseed oil is relatively strong due to expected supply shortages, and domestic palm oil is affected by the Malaysian market with reduced inventory pressure [3]. - **Strategy**: Hold light long positions in palm oil and rapeseed oil during the holiday, and close soybean oil positions [4]. 3.4. Corn - **Fundamentals**: The new corn harvest is expected to be realized, and the concentrated listing of new grains will bring supply pressure, with more bearish factors in the future [4]. - **Strategy**: Hold light short positions in corn futures during the holiday and avoid heavy positions [5]. 3.5. Cotton - **Fundamentals**: The new cotton has a good harvest, but downstream demand is lower than expected, and the consumption recovery is slow [6]. - **Strategy**: Hold light short positions in cotton futures during the holiday and avoid heavy positions [7]. 3.6. Sugar - **Fundamentals**: The domestic sugar supply pressure remains, but the rebound of the foreign market limits the decline of domestic sugar prices [8]. - **Strategy**: Hold light short positions in sugar futures during the holiday and avoid heavy positions [9]. 3.7. Live Pigs - **Fundamentals**: The high inventory of live pigs and the weakening of demand after the double - festival stocking period have led to concentrated supply pressure [9]. - **Strategy**: Hold light short positions in live pig futures during the holiday and avoid heavy positions [10]. 3.8. Eggs - **Fundamentals**: The high inventory of laying hens and the large inventory of cold - storage eggs have led to large supply pressure, and the demand is weakening [10]. - **Strategy**: Hold light short positions in egg futures during the holiday and avoid heavy positions [11].

Report Summary 1. Investment Rating No investment rating is provided in the report. 2. Core View The report focuses on the prospects of energy - chemical holiday strategies. It believes that the current trading logic of crude oil is a game between short - term emotional positives from geopolitical or threat - sanction news and medium - term supply - demand surplus fundamentals. The probability of the crude oil price center shifting down in the fourth quarter is high. For futures, most energy - chemical products have a weakening trend, and for options, the potential of put - buying strategies is analyzed [1][4]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Holiday Potential Driving Events and Possible Impacts - There are two scenarios for the September non - farm payrolls data to be released on October 3. If it continues to weaken, the previous interest - rate cut expectations will continue. If there is an upward revision of the August data and the September data stabilizes, it may correct the current optimistic interest - rate cut expectations, having a negative impact on gold, silver, copper, and crude oil, but it's not enough to break the $60 support for WTI unless there is a collective slump in risk assets [1]. - At the OPEC+ meeting on October 5, OPEC is expected to increase production by 137,000 barrels per day in October and may partially or fully restore 1.65 million barrels per day in the future. Whether the continued or unexpectedly high production increase can drive the crude oil price below the $60 support is worth attention, as a breakdown may lead to a large decline in overseas crude oil futures during the holiday [1]. 3.2 Futures Strategy Since August, most short - selling strategies in the evening reports, except for crude oil, have achieved significant profits. The holiday strategy is to actively take half - position or more profits and keep a partial position. The weak fundamentals of most energy - chemical products remain unchanged, and the downward trend continues [2]. 3.3 Put - Buying Strategy - **Current Background**: The trading logic of crude oil is a game between short - term positives and medium - term negatives. The probability of the crude oil price center shifting down in the fourth quarter is high [4]. - **Advantages**: The absolute volatility of overseas crude oil futures during holidays has significantly increased in recent years. For put options, as long as the absolute price movement of the underlying asset is large enough, the option yield far exceeds the futures yield [4]. - **Disadvantages**: Before long holidays, the implied volatility of put options has been rising rapidly, resulting in high premiums for put options before holidays and a lower cost - effectiveness compared to four or five years ago [4]. - **Investment Suggestion**: The investment in put - buying should not exceed 5% - 15% of the account funds, depending on the contract month. Generally, the 11 - contract should not exceed 5%, the 12 - contract should not exceed 10%, and the farther 12 - contract should not exceed 15%. One can also use the previous futures profits for partial investment. When buying put options, one should consider whether the profit from the absolute price change during the 8 - day National Day holiday can exceed the time value and volatility value depreciation [5]. - **Value Estimation**: Taking the 11 - contract P out - of - the - money 4 - strike put option of crude oil as an example, the total depreciation is about 70%. The value of the put option is the same as before the holiday when the 11 - contract opens 3.2% lower after the holiday, and it doubles when it drops 5%. For the 12 - contract P out - of - the - money 5 - strike put option of crude oil, the total depreciation is about 35%. The value of the put option is the same as before the holiday when the 12 - contract opens 2.3% lower after the holiday, and it doubles when it drops 6.5%. For the 12 - contract P out - of - the - money 2.5 - strike put option of PX, the total depreciation is about 55%. The value of the put option is the same as before the holiday when the 12 - contract opens 1.6% lower after the holiday, and it doubles when it drops 3.2% [6]. - **Alternative Option**: Usually, other energy - chemical products follow crude oil, so generally, only crude oil put options are considered. But this year, due to the high premium of crude oil put options and relatively low implied - volatility premium of PX12 - contract put options, PX12 can be a second choice [6].

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core View of the Report - Most short positions on energy and chemical products entered the market in early and mid - August and have gained significant profits after nearly two months. Before the National Day holiday, it is recommended to gradually reduce positions and only keep a small part of the positions. If WTI breaks through the strong support of $60 during the holiday, there will be significant short - term acceleration space [1][2] Summary by Directory 1. Overall Situation - The short positions on energy and chemical products entered the market in early and mid - August and have been held for nearly two months with large profit margins. It is suggested to gradually reduce positions before the National Day holiday and only keep part of the positions. If WTI breaks through the $60 support during the holiday, short - term acceleration space is large [1][2] 2. Individual Varieties (1) Crude Oil - Logic: In the context of OPEC+ increasing production and seasonal decline in US demand, the probability of oversupply in the second half of the year is high. The mid - term bearish view based on oversupply should be maintained without over - emphasizing short - term positive factors [3] - Technical Analysis: The daily - level shows a mid - term downward structure, and the hourly - level shows a short - term upward structure. It rebounded today after reducing positions and stood above the short - term pressure at 485. The hourly cycle turned bullish again, with the short - term support at 482. There are two strategies: stop - loss of short positions at the hourly level or widen the stop - loss to the upper limit of the daily - level oscillation at 500 [3] (2) Styrene (EB) - Logic: The weekly fundamentals of styrene have not improved significantly. Despite a slight decline in supply due to device maintenance, high production and inventory levels remain. New device production in September - October will add to the supply pressure, so the bearish view remains [5] - Technical Analysis: The hourly - level shows a short - term downward structure. It oscillated today and closed above the short - term pressure at 6935, but the rebound was weak. Half of the short positions should be taken profit [5][8] (3) Rubber - Logic: Overseas raw material prices have declined, weakening cost support. Domestic inventory reduction is slow, and there is pressure from falling crude oil prices and synthetic rubber substitution. The demand side is mixed, with semi - steel tire开工 falling and full - steel tire开工 remaining high. The fundamentals are neutral [11] - Technical Analysis: The daily - level shows a mid - term oscillating structure, and the hourly - level shows a downward structure. It oscillated today, with the short - term pressure at 16000. Short positions should be held [12][13] (4) Synthetic Rubber (BR) - Logic: The supply - demand situation of synthetic rubber has no major contradictions. The supply side has seen an increase in production after device maintenance. The main concern is the cost of butadiene, with port inventory increasing and supply pressure expected to rise. The cost side is bearish [14][17] - Technical Analysis: The daily - level shows a mid - term oscillating/downward structure, and the hourly - level shows a downward structure. It oscillated today, with the short - term pressure at 11730. Short positions should be held, and take - profit can be set at 11730 [17] (5) PX - Logic: PX has good profits and high production. The short - term supply - demand has weakened slightly, mainly driven by crude oil costs [21] - Technical Analysis: The hourly - level shows a short - term oscillating structure. It rebounded today after reducing positions and stood above the short - term pressure at 6655. The remaining short positions should be stopped - loss [21] (6) PTA - Logic: The cost of crude oil is expected to decline, and PTA has a high probability of inventory accumulation due to high supply and weak demand. The fundamentals are pessimistic [22] - Technical Analysis: The hourly - level shows a short - term oscillating structure. It rebounded today after reducing positions and stood above the short - term pressure at 4620. The remaining short positions should be taken profit [22] (7) PP - Logic: The demand has improved slightly during the peak season, but the supply pressure has increased due to new device production. Be cautious about short - selling after the price decline, and pay attention to the cost - collapse logic caused by falling crude oil prices [24] - Technical Analysis: The hourly - level shows a short - term downward structure. It oscillated today, with the short - term pressure at 6935. After taking profit last week, there is no good entry point, so it is recommended to wait and see [24] (8) Methanol - Logic: The situation of weak current and strong expectation continues. The domestic production is still high, and the port inventory is at a historical high. Although there is a potential for improvement in the fourth quarter, the current 01 contract has a high premium, so it is not recommended to buy on the left side. The downward trend since August has not ended [28] - Technical Analysis: The daily - level shows a mid - term downward structure, and the hourly - level shows a downward structure. It oscillated today, with the short - term pressure at 2375. The remaining short positions should be held cautiously, and the take - profit can be set at 2375 [28] (9) PVC - Logic: The supply pressure is high due to new device production, and the demand is weak both domestically and overseas. The inventory has reached a historical high, and the pressure remains [32] - Technical Analysis: The daily - level shows a mid - term downward structure, and the hourly - level shows a downward structure. It oscillated today, with the short - term pressure at 4980 and the 15 - minute pressure at 4930. Short positions on the 15 - minute cycle can be held, with the stop - loss at 4945 [32] (10) Ethylene Glycol (EG) - Logic: The current supply - demand situation is relatively stable, but attention should be paid to the potential supply pressure from new device production and the impact of falling crude oil prices [35] - Technical Analysis: The daily - level shows a mid - term oscillating/downward structure, and the hourly - level shows a downward structure. It oscillated today, with the short - term pressure at 4275. Short positions should be held, and take - profit can be set at 4275 [35] (11) Plastic - Logic: The supply pressure has increased due to new device production, and the demand improvement during the peak season is limited. The supply - demand situation is bearish, and attention should be paid to the cost - driven impact of falling crude oil prices [37] - Technical Analysis: The daily - level shows a mid - term oscillating/downward structure, and the hourly - level shows a downward structure. It oscillated today, with the short - term pressure at 7205. The remaining short positions should be held [39] (12) Soda Ash - Logic: The supply of soda ash remains high, and the high - production and high - inventory situation has not improved [41] - Technical Analysis: The hourly - level shows an oscillating structure. It oscillated today, with the short - term pressure at 1321. The remaining short positions should be held [41] (13) Caustic Soda - Logic: The supply of liquid chlorine is abundant, and the demand from non - aluminum industries has limited improvement. The inventory has increased again, and the short - term fundamentals have weakened. Attention should be paid to the demand improvement during the peak season and device maintenance in the medium term [44] - Technical Analysis: The hourly - level shows a downward structure. It oscillated today, with the short - term pressure difficult to determine, and the 15 - minute pressure at 2575. After taking profit last week, there is no good entry point, so it is recommended to wait and see [44]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core View of the Report The report analyzes the trends of various agricultural products. Some products like rapeseed meal are facing downward pressure due to potential supply increases, while others such as sugar and corn are experiencing rebounds influenced by factors like weather and inventory changes. Each product's market situation is detailed along with corresponding trading strategies [1][2][4]. 3. Summary by Variety Rapeseed Meal - Continued to decline; impacted by Argentina's cancellation of export tax and potential improvement in China - Canada trade relations, leading to increased supply expectations. Also, high domestic soybean crushing and rising soybean meal inventory added pressure [2]. - The main 2601 contract fell significantly, below the moving - average system, hitting a 2 - month low. The strategy is to short with a light position, with support at 2377 and resistance at 2450 [2][3]. Sugar - The main 2601 contract rebounded significantly, driven by short - covering and the rebound of the overseas market. The approaching typhoon in the south provided a weather - related price - boosting factor [4]. - The contract rebounded from a low level, standing above the short - term moving average. The strategy is to close short positions, with support at 5440 and resistance at 5530 [4]. Soybean Oil - After a sharp decline, it slightly rebounded, but the downward trend remained. Argentina's tax cut on soybean products increased international competition, and domestic supply was abundant [6]. - The main 2601 contract fluctuated far below the moving - average system. The strategy is to short with a light position, with support at 8018 and resistance at 8150 [6]. Palm Oil - Rebounded from a low level, supported by improved supply - demand in Malaysia (production down 8% and exports up 8 - 9% in the first 20 days of September). Domestic trading volume increased [8]. - Although it rebounded slightly, it was still below the moving - average system. The strategy is to hold short positions, with support at 9000 and resistance at 9150 [8]. Corn - Continued to rebound from a low level. Despite expected new supply, port inventory decline and price increases in North China supported the price [10]. - The main 2511 contract rebounded, with short - covering. The strategy is to close short positions, with support at 2150 and resistance at 2170 [10]. Eggs - Continued to decline with high supply pressure. High laying - hen inventory and a large amount of cold - storage eggs to be released in November led to weak demand after the holiday [13]. - The main 2511 contract fell below the 20 - day moving average. The strategy is to short with a light position, with support at 3030 and resistance at 3090 [13]. Pigs - Rebounded from a low level, but the downward trend remained. High supply due to fattening and disease in some areas was countered by typhoon - affected supply in Guangdong and pre - holiday demand [14][16]. - The main 2511 contract rebounded but was still under moving - average pressure. The strategy is to hold short positions, with support at 12645 and resistance at 12800 [16]. Cotton - Fluctuated narrowly at a low level, with the downward trend unchanged. New cotton was about to be listed in large quantities, and downstream demand was weak [17]. - The main 2601 contract fluctuated with some short - covering. The strategy is to short with a light position, with support at 13500 and resistance at 13635 [19]. Apples - Oscillated upwards. With the end of early - Fuji trading, late - Fuji procurement for the double - festival was active, and cold - storage inventory decreased [20]. - The main 2601 contract oscillated upwards above the moving - average system. The strategy is to go long with a light position, with support at 8290 and resistance at 8428 [20]. Red Dates - The rebound was blocked. There was a game over new jujube production, quality, and opening prices. Market expectations of a new - jujube harvest reduction coexisted with slow pre - holiday procurement [22]. - The main 2601 contract first rose then fell. The strategy is to close long positions and trade short - term, with support at 10715 and resistance at 10900 [22].