1. Report's Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The chemical industry continued to be strong today supported by crude oil at the cost - end, with the short - term performance affected by the Iran geopolitical situation [1][2] - The short - term fundamentals of crude oil are weak, and the medium - term ones are pessimistically loose, but the short - term trading logic is shifted to the Iran geopolitical premium [2][3] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs (1) Crude Oil - Logic: US refinery operations declined, demand weakened, and EIA weekly inventories increased significantly for two consecutive weeks. The short - term fundamentals are weak, and the medium - term ones are pessimistically loose. However, the short - term trading logic is shifted to the Iran geopolitical premium. The subsequent geopolitical situation may evolve in three ways, with the first two being the key points of concern [2][3][4] - Technical Analysis: The daily - level shows a medium - term downward structure, and the hourly - level shows a short - term upward structure. It increased in volume and rose above the shock upper limit of 460 today, and the short - term structure turned to the long side. The short - term support below is at the 460 level. The strategy for the hourly cycle is to wait and see [4] (2) Styrene - Logic: Short - term supply disruptions and export rumors led to counter - seasonal inventory reduction, supporting short - term prices. However, after the recent significant expansion of profits, there is a pressure for the accelerated recovery and increased load of maintenance devices in the medium term. The short - term upward continuity depends on capital sentiment and whether there is a large reduction of positions at high levels [6] - Technical Analysis: The hourly - level shows a short - term upward structure. It increased in volume and reached a new high today, with the short - term support at the 7530 level. The hourly cycle strategy is to wait and see [6] (3) Pure Benzene - Logic: The speculation space of pure benzene is weaker than that of styrene. It is mainly driven by the passive upward space brought by the rising profit of styrene and the potential positive impact of the expected reduction of US tariffs on South Korean pure benzene on domestic imports. The medium - term overseas demand is weak, and the domestic import pressure is the biggest negative factor. The short - term upward continuity depends on capital sentiment [10] - Technical Analysis: The hourly - level shows a short - term upward structure. It increased in volume and rose today, with the short - term support at the 5930 level. The hourly cycle strategy is to wait and see [10] (4) Rubber - Logic: There is no major contradiction in the fundamentals of natural rubber. Its rise is mainly driven by the substitution effect after the increase of synthetic rubber prices and runs passively following synthetic rubber [14] - Technical Analysis: The daily - level shows a medium - term shock structure, and the hourly - level shows a short - term upward structure. It increased in volume and rose today, with the short - term support at the 16080 level. The hourly cycle strategy is to wait and see [14] (5) Synthetic Rubber - Logic: The domestic butadiene production is still at a high level in the same period. The domestic fundamentals have not changed much, but the cold wave in Europe and the United States has promoted the rise of overseas oil and gas prices and the expected short - term shutdown of overseas devices, leading to a contraction of overseas butadiene supply and an increase in international butadiene prices. Short - term cost - push and large capital inflows into the chemical sector last week have promoted the short - term strength of synthetic rubber [19] - Technical Analysis: The daily - level shows a medium - term upward structure, and the hourly - level shows a short - term upward structure. It increased in volume and rose today, with the short - term support at the 12800 level. The hourly cycle strategy is to wait and see [19] (6) PX - Logic: The supply - demand pattern is strong in the medium term before the new production capacity is put into operation in the third quarter, but the market has started trading in advance in December. Although there is a negative feedback logic of the decline in textile polyester in the short term, the capital inflow into the chemical sector since the second half of last week and the crude oil cost driven by geopolitical sentiment have promoted its short - term strength. Attention should be paid to when the Iran geopolitical impact ends [22] - Technical Analysis: The daily - level shows a medium - term upward structure, and the hourly - level shows a short - term shock structure. It fluctuated within the day today, with a wide - range interval of 7050 - 7500 at the hourly - level. The hourly - level strategy is to wait and see [22] (7) PTA - Logic: The short - term fundamentals are weak, with seasonal inventory increase due to weak demand in the off - season and a negative feedback logic of polyester production reduction in the downstream. However, the capital inflow into the chemical sector since the second half of last week and the crude oil cost driven by geopolitical sentiment have promoted its short - term strength. Attention should be paid to when the Iran geopolitical impact ends [24] - Technical Analysis: The daily - level shows a medium - term upward structure, and the short - term upward structure at the hourly - level has come to an end. It fluctuated within the day today. The pressure at the 5370 level in the 15 - minute decline is temporarily effective. The hourly - level strategy is to wait and see [24] (8) PP - Logic: The fundamentals of the domestic olefin industry chain are still weak, with the pressure of new production capacity release and the off - season of demand. However, the capital inflow into the chemical sector since the second half of last week and the cost support affected by the US cold wave have promoted its short - term strength. The continuity depends on when the capital reduces positions at high levels [26] - Technical Analysis: The hourly - level shows a short - term upward structure. It increased in volume and rose today, with the short - term support at the 6650 level. The hourly cycle strategy is to wait and see [26] (9) Methanol - Logic: The port has started seasonal inventory reduction, but the fundamentals are weak due to the extremely high inventory level compared with the same period and the negative feedback of early parking and load reduction of MTO devices. However, the Iran geopolitical sentiment has heated up again recently, and the short - term trading of geopolitical sentiment on the disk and the large capital inflow into the chemical sector last week have promoted the short - term strength of methanol [31] - Technical Analysis: The daily - level shows a medium - term decline and a short - term upward structure. It decreased in volume and rose today, testing the previous high but failing. The short - term support below is at the 2255 level. The hourly cycle strategy is to wait and see [31] (10) PVC - Logic: The situation of high production, high inventory, and weak demand remains. It is affected by the chemical sector sentiment in the short term, but the upward pressure is still huge [33] - Technical Analysis: The daily - level shows a medium - term downward structure, and the hourly - level shows a short - term shock structure. It fluctuated within the day today, and the short - term structure is unclear. The hourly cycle strategy is to wait and see [33] (11) Ethylene Glycol (EG) - Logic: The domestic fundamentals are still weak, with seasonal inventory increase pressure, high supply operation, and a negative feedback logic of polyester production reduction in demand. However, the capital inflow into the chemical sector since the second half of last week and the impact of the US cold wave have promoted its short - term strength. The continuity depends on when the capital reduces positions at high levels [35] - Technical Analysis: The daily - level shows a medium - term downward structure, and the hourly - level shows a short - term upward structure. It fluctuated within the day today, with the short - term support at the 3825 level. The hourly - level strategy is to wait and see [35] (12) Plastic - Logic: The fundamentals of the domestic olefin industry chain are still weak, with the pressure of new production capacity release and the off - season of demand. However, the capital inflow into the chemical sector since the second half of last week and the cost support affected by the US cold wave have promoted its short - term strength. The continuity depends on when the capital reduces positions at high levels [39] - Technical Analysis: The daily - level shows a medium - term downward structure, and the hourly - level shows an upward structure. It decreased in volume and rose today, with the short - term support at the 6815 level. The hourly cycle strategy is to wait and see [39] (13) Soda Ash - Logic: The fundamentals of soda ash still feature high supply, weak demand, and high inventory, with the surplus pattern continuing. Although the soda ash production has slightly decreased this week, it is still at the highest level in history compared with the same period and the previous period, and the pressure of new production capacity release is still high. The total demand is still weak. The inventory has slightly decreased due to the downstream replenishment demand before the festival, but the total inventory of 1.52 million tons is still at an extremely high level compared with the same period last year. Without unexpected policies, the premium of the far - month contracts of soda ash is expected to be gradually downward - repaired, and a short - selling idea is maintained for the 05 contract [40] - Technical Analysis: The short - term downward structure at the hourly - level may have come to an end. It increased in volume and rose today, and the closing price stood above the short - term pressure of 1215 at the end of the session. The short - term decline may have ended. The hourly cycle strategy is to wait and see after stopping the loss of short positions [41][43] (14) Caustic Soda - Logic: The pattern of high supply, high inventory, and weak demand (weak non - aluminum demand and weak alumina demand expectation) in caustic soda remains. With sufficient comprehensive profits of chlor - alkali, chlor - alkali devices still maintain high - load operation, and the supply pressure is still huge. The downward drive continues, and it is difficult to see a reversal [44] - Technical Analysis: The hourly - level shows a short - term downward structure. It fluctuated within the day today, with the short - term pressure at the 2000 level. The hourly cycle strategy is to wait and see, and do not buy at the bottom before the structure turns to the long side [44]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. 2. Core View of the Report The agricultural products sector shows a mixed trend. Sugar, palm oil, cotton, and soybean meal are expected to be bullish, while live pigs and eggs are likely to decline. Specifically, sugar prices are boosted by a bullish commodity market atmosphere, cost support, and strong year - end demand; palm oil benefits from rising crude oil prices and favorable supply - demand data; cotton is supported by expected supply reduction and strong demand; soybean meal is driven by rising US soybean prices and downstream stocking demand. On the other hand, live pig prices are pressured by high production capacity and weak demand, and egg prices are affected by high supply and potential weakening demand [1]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Agricultural Products Sector Overview - Sugar prices have risen strongly and are expected to remain strong in the future due to a bullish commodity market atmosphere, cost support, and strong year - end demand [1]. - Palm oil has continuously reached new highs, and its uptrend is expected to continue, supported by rising crude oil prices and favorable supply - demand data in the producing areas [1]. - Cotton has resumed its upward trend after a short adjustment, with expected supply reduction in the long - term and strong demand supporting the price increase [1]. 3.2 Variety Strategy Tracking 3.2.1 Sugar - The main SR2605 contract of Zhengzhou sugar has broken through and risen, driven by a bullish commodity market atmosphere and short - covering. Domestic new sugar is being released in an orderly manner, but some producing areas have a high crushing rate but a low sugar yield, and the production is lower than the same period last year. At the same time, the rising cost of sugar production and relatively strong year - end demand support the sugar futures price. On January 29, the transaction price of Guangxi sugar reached 5,285 yuan/ton, up 49 yuan from the previous trading day [2]. - The technical indicators of the main SR2605 contract are turning strong, with the price breaking through 5,200 and standing above the 20 - day moving average. The MACD shows a sign of a golden cross. The strategy is to close short positions and enter long positions at support levels during market fluctuations [2]. 3.2.2 Palm Oil - The main P2605 contract of palm oil has continued to rise strongly and reached a new high in 3.5 months, supported by rising crude oil prices and favorable supply - demand data from the producing areas. High - frequency data shows that from January 1 to 25, Malaysia's palm oil exports increased by 9.97% month - on - month, while production decreased by 14%. Malaysia's seasonal production decline and India's pre - Ramadan stocking demand have strengthened the expectation of inventory reduction in the producing areas [3]. - The technical indicators of the P2605 contract are strong, with the moving averages in a bullish arrangement and the MACD red bar expanding. The strategy is to enter long positions with a light position on dips, with support levels at 9,270 - 9,300 [3]. 3.2.3 Live Pigs - The main LH2603 contract of live pigs has continued to decline, affected by weak technical indicators and high slaughter pressure from the breeding side. Official data shows that the存栏 of breeding sows at the end of 2025 was 39.61 million, 101.6% of the normal reserve. As the Spring Festival approaches, the slaughter window for breeders is narrowing, increasing the daily slaughter pressure of large - scale pig enterprises. The demand side has not improved significantly, and the purchasing power of slaughterhouses is limited [5]. - The technical indicators of the LH2603 contract are weak, with the price falling below the moving average system and the MACD green bar expanding after a death cross. The strategy is to enter short positions with a light position at resistance levels [5]. 3.2.4 Eggs - The main JD2603 contract of eggs has continued to decline in a volatile manner, affected by high production capacity on the supply side and changes in pre - festival demand. Although the spot price of eggs has risen due to Spring Festival stocking, the futures price has weakened because the egg - laying hen inventory is still at a relatively high level in recent years. As schools are on holiday, the demand for eggs from food factories may decline, limiting the upside of the spot price [7]. - The technical indicators of the JD2603 contract are weak, with the price falling below the moving averages and the MACD red bar continuously shrinking. The strategy is to stop - loss and close long positions and turn to short - selling on rallies, setting stop - losses [7]. 3.2.5 Soybean Meal - The main M2605 contract of soybean meal has risen strongly and stood above the 2,800 mark, driven by rising US soybean prices and downstream stocking demand. The price of US soybeans has risen due to weather speculation in Argentina, driving up the domestic soybean meal price. Before the Spring Festival, feed and breeding enterprises have continued stocking demand, and the inventory of soybean meal in oil mills will continue to decline. As of the fourth weekend of this year, the domestic soybean meal inventory was 906,800 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 4.35% [9]. - The technical indicators of the M2605 contract are strong, with the price breaking through 2,800 and standing above the moving average system, and the MACD red bar expanding after a golden cross. The strategy is to enter long positions with a light position, with support levels at 2,784 - 2,790 [9]. 3.2.6 Cotton - The main CF2605 contract of cotton has fluctuated slightly after a sharp rise the previous day, but its strength remains unchanged. The expected significant reduction in the cotton planting area in Xinjiang has strengthened the long - term production reduction expectation, and favorable policies have boosted domestic demand. Before the Spring Festival, textile enterprises have certain stocking needs, and the demand side is relatively strong. The orders for high - count yarns are in high demand and short in supply, and the operating rate of Xinjiang textile enterprises remains above 90%. The decrease in cotton imports also supports the cotton price [11]. - The technical indicators of the CF2605 contract are strong, with the price breaking through the recent volatile range and resuming the upward trend, and fluctuating above the moving average system. The MACD continues to shrink. The strategy is to enter long positions with a light position, with support levels at 14,750 - 14,800 [11].

Report Summary 1. Industry Investment Rating The report does not mention any industry investment ratings. 2. Core View The short - term macro situation outweighs the fundamentals, and the market continues to be relatively strong. The short - term trading logic of the oil market has shifted to the geopolitical premium of Iran. The chemical industry is also running strongly under the influence of sector sentiment, crude oil cost support, and the inflow of non - industrial and macro funds. Attention should be paid to the end of the impact of Iran's geopolitical situation [2]. 3. Summary by Directory (1) Crude Oil - Logic: US refinery operations have declined, demand has weakened, and EIA weekly inventories have increased significantly for two consecutive weeks. The short - term fundamentals have weakened, and the medium - term fundamentals remain loose and pessimistic. However, the short - term trading logic has shifted to the geopolitical premium of Iran. The subsequent geopolitical situation may develop in three ways, and the first two are more likely. The strategy is to wait for cooling signals and cooperate with technical analysis to short at high levels [3][4]. - Technical Analysis: The daily - level of crude oil shows a medium - term downward structure, and the short - term structure at the hourly level is unclear. It has increased in volume and reached the upper edge of the shock range of 460. The strategy is to wait and see in the short - term hourly cycle [4]. (2) Styrene - Logic: Short - term supply disruptions and export rumors have led to counter - seasonal inventory reduction, supporting short - term prices. However, after the recent significant expansion of profits, there is pressure for maintenance devices to accelerate recovery and increase production in the medium term. The short - term upward continuity depends on capital sentiment and whether there is a significant reduction in positions at high levels [6]. - Technical Analysis: Styrene shows a short - term upward structure at the hourly level. It tested the previous high today but fell back with a reduction in positions in the late session. The short - term (hourly) support is at the 7530 level. The strategy is to wait and see in the short - term hourly cycle [6]. (3) Pure Benzene - Logic: The speculation space of pure benzene is weaker than that of styrene. It is mainly driven by the passive increase in space after the profit of styrene has expanded, and the potential positive impact of the expected reduction of US tariffs on South Korean pure benzene on domestic imports. The short - term upward continuity depends on capital sentiment and whether there is a significant reduction in positions at high levels. In the medium term, the overseas downstream production capacity of pure benzene is accelerating de - capacity, and the demand is weak, increasing the surplus. The domestic imports are expected to remain at a high level, and import pressure is the biggest negative factor [9]. - Technical Analysis: Pure benzene shows a short - term upward structure at the hourly level. It increased in volume today, and the short - term support has moved up to the 5930 level. The strategy is to wait and see in the short - term hourly cycle [9]. (4) Rubber - Logic: There is no major contradiction in the fundamentals of natural rubber. Its rise is mainly driven by the substitution effect after the increase in synthetic rubber prices and follows the passive movement of synthetic rubber [13]. - Technical Analysis: Rubber shows a medium - term shock structure at the daily level and a short - term upward structure at the hourly level. It increased in volume today, and the short - term support is at the 15780 level. The strategy is to wait and see in the short - term hourly cycle [13]. (5) Synthetic Rubber - Logic: The domestic production of butadiene is still at a high level in the same period. The demand is also stable, and the domestic fundamentals have not changed much. However, the cold wave in Europe and the United States has pushed up overseas oil and gas prices, and the expected short - term shutdown of overseas devices has led to a contraction in overseas butadiene supply, pushing up international butadiene prices. Short - term cost push and the significant inflow of funds into the chemical sector last week have pushed synthetic rubber to be relatively strong in the short term [18]. - Technical Analysis: Synthetic rubber shows a medium - term upward structure at the daily level and a short - term upward structure at the hourly level. It increased in volume today, and the short - term support has moved up to the 12800 level. The strategy is to wait and see in the short - term hourly cycle [18]. (6) PX - Logic: In the medium term, the supply - demand pattern is strong before the new production capacity is put into operation in the third quarter, but the market has started trading in advance in December. In the short term, although there is a negative feedback logic from the decline in textile polyester, the inflow of funds into the chemical sector since the second half of last week and the push of rising crude oil costs due to geopolitical sentiment have made it relatively strong in the short term. Attention should be paid to the end of the impact of Iran's geopolitical situation [22]. - Technical Analysis: PX shows a medium - term upward structure at the daily level, and the short - term upward structure at the hourly level has ended. It rebounded with a reduction in positions today and tested the 15 - minute pressure at the 7400 level. The strategy is to wait and see at the hourly level and pay attention to the opportunity to short on the rebound below the pressure in the 15 - minute small cycle [22]. (7) PTA - Logic: The short - term fundamentals are weak. Entering the seasonal inventory accumulation period due to weak demand in the off - season, there is a negative feedback logic from the reduction in downstream polyester production. However, the inflow of funds into the chemical sector since the second half of last week and the push of rising crude oil costs due to geopolitical sentiment have made it relatively strong in the short term. Attention should be paid to the end of the impact of Iran's geopolitical situation [23]. - Technical Analysis: PTA shows a medium - term upward structure at the daily level, and the short - term upward structure at the hourly level has ended. It tested the 15 - minute pressure at the 5370 level today. The strategy is to wait and see at the hourly level and pay attention to the opportunity to short on the rebound below the pressure in the 15 - minute small cycle [24][26]. (8) PP - Logic: The fundamentals of the domestic olefin industry chain are still weak. The pressure of new production capacity release combined with the off - season demand makes the supply - demand drive still weak. However, the inflow of funds into the chemical sector since the second half of last week and the cost support affected by the US cold wave have made it relatively strong in the short term. The sustainability depends on when the funds reduce positions at high levels [28]. - Technical Analysis: PP shows a short - term upward structure at the hourly level. It increased in volume today, and the short - term support has moved up to the 6650 level. The strategy is to wait and see in the short - term hourly cycle [28]. (9) Methanol - Logic: The port has begun seasonal inventory reduction, but the extremely high inventory level compared with the same period and the negative feedback from the early shutdown and production reduction of MTO devices make the fundamentals weak. However, the recent resurgence of geopolitical sentiment in Iran, the short - term trading of geopolitical sentiment on the disk, and the significant inflow of funds into the chemical sector last week have pushed methanol to be relatively strong in the short term [32]. - Technical Analysis: Methanol shows a medium - term downward and short - term upward structure at the daily level. It increased in volume with a reduction in positions today. Attention should be paid to the short - term support at the 2255 level. The strategy is to wait and see in the short - term hourly cycle [32]. (10) PVC - Logic: The situation of high production, high inventory, and weak demand remains. It is affected by the sentiment of the chemical sector in the short term, but the upward pressure is still huge [34]. - Technical Analysis: PVC shows a medium - term downward structure at the daily level and a short - term shock structure at the hourly level. It oscillated within the day today, and the short - term structure is unclear. The strategy is to wait and see in the short - term hourly cycle [34]. (11) Ethylene Glycol - Logic: The domestic fundamentals are still weak. There is pressure for seasonal inventory accumulation, the supply operation is at a high level, and there is a negative feedback logic from the reduction in polyester production. However, the inflow of funds into the chemical sector since the second half of last week and the impact of the US cold wave have made it relatively strong in the short term. The sustainability depends on when the funds reduce positions at high levels [37]. - Technical Analysis: EG shows a medium - term downward structure at the daily level and a short - term upward structure at the hourly level. It rebounded with a reduction in positions today. Attention should be paid to the short - term support at the 3825 level. The strategy is to wait and see at the hourly level [37]. (12) Plastic - Logic: The fundamentals of the domestic olefin industry chain are still weak. The pressure of new production capacity release combined with the off - season demand makes the supply - demand drive still weak. However, the inflow of funds into the chemical sector since the second half of last week and the cost support affected by the US cold wave have made it relatively strong in the short term. The sustainability depends on when the funds reduce positions at high levels [41]. - Technical Analysis: Plastic shows a medium - term downward structure at the daily level and a short - term upward structure at the hourly level. It increased in volume today, and the short - term support has moved up to the 6815 level. The strategy is to wait and see in the short - term hourly cycle [41]. (13) Soda Ash - Logic: The fundamentals of soda ash still show high supply, weak demand, and high inventory, and the surplus pattern continues. Although the soda ash production has slightly decreased this week, it is still at the highest level in history compared with the same period and month - on - month, and the pressure of new production capacity release still exists. The total demand is still weak. Although the inventory of soda ash has slightly decreased due to the pre - holiday replenishment demand of downstream enterprises, the current total inventory of 1.52 million tons is still at an extremely high level compared with the same period in history. Under the surplus pressure, without unexpected policies, the premium of the far - month contracts of soda ash is expected to be gradually repaired downward, and the 05 contract should maintain a short - selling idea on the disk [42]. - Technical Analysis: Soda ash shows a short - term downward structure at the hourly level. It oscillated within the day today, and the short - term pressure is at the 1215 level. The strategy is to hold short positions in the short - term hourly cycle, with a stop - loss reference at the 1215 level [44]. (14) Caustic Soda - Logic: Caustic soda still shows a pattern of high supply, high inventory, and weak demand (weak non - aluminum demand and weak expected demand from alumina). With sufficient comprehensive profits from chlor - alkali, chlor - alkali devices still maintain high - load operation, and the supply pressure is still huge. The downward drive continues, and it is difficult to reverse [45]. - Technical Analysis: Caustic soda shows a short - term downward structure at the hourly level. It oscillated within the day today, and the short - term pressure is at the 2000 level. The strategy is to wait and see in the short - term hourly cycle and do not buy at the bottom before the structure turns bullish [45].

核心逻辑：现阶段交易所监管趋严，同时昨天盘后交易所又发布 了对部分客户采取限制开仓，限制出金的警告，在此影响下，盘面出 现了多头资金大幅减仓，价格下行。但整体基本面的走向没有改变， 趋势依旧向上，维持逢回调买入思路。需要注意的是，当前碳酸锂期 价波动幅度较大，易受市场消息与情绪影响，要重视入场点以及风险 控制。 技术面分析：当前碳酸锂主力 2605 合约 5 分钟级别周期为绿线 蓝带绿阶梯。隔夜 2 小时级别周期仍是红色阶梯线偏强，临近多空分 水位 165680 元/吨。 碳酸锂、多晶硅、工业硅日报 （一）碳酸锂 市场走势：今日碳酸锂期价维持，主力 2605 合约较上一交易日 收盘价下跌 7.42%，报 166280 元/吨。 策略建议：维持逢回调买入。近期碳酸锂波动幅度较大，需谨慎 操作。日内依据"首 K 突破法"或"三线共振法"寻找好的入场位置， 具体操作可以听 8:30 的早直播。 关注点：是否有监管升级的情况、枧下窝复产进度、需求端排产 情况。 碳酸锂 2605 合约 5 分钟级别周期 碳酸锂 2605 合约 2 小时级别周期 数据来源：博易大师，天富研询 （二）多晶硅 市场走势：今日多晶硅期货震荡偏 ...

地缘略有降温，能化回落调整 行情综述： 油：美炼厂开工回落需求走弱，EIA 周库存连续两周大幅累库， 短期基本面走弱，中期基本面维持宽松偏悲观。但盘面短期交易逻辑 转向伊朗地缘溢价。伊朗地缘方面虽美军在中东部署增加，但隔夜伊 朗外长与美国特使威特科夫互致信息，涉及多项议题。早盘特朗普也 表示认为伊朗确实想要达成协议。后续路径演变有三: 1.军事施压下 通过外交途径重启谈判，地缘风险解除，溢价回吐。2.美一轮空袭后 伊朗再度表演式回击，复刻 2025 年 6 月"午夜之锤"行动前后影响， 仍是可控局面。3.连续大规模空袭，伊朗封锁霍尔木兹海峡（可能性 较低，暂不考虑）。重点关注 1 和 2 可能 ,等待降温信号出现与技术 配合逢高空思路。 化工：化工近期仍是板块情绪+原油成本支撑+非产业资金/宏观 资金流入下偏强运行，短期同样关注伊朗地缘影响何时结束。 （一）原油： 逻辑：美炼厂开工回落需求走弱，EIA 周库存连续两周大幅累库， 短期基本面走弱，中期基本面维持宽松偏悲观。但盘面短期交易逻辑 转向伊朗地缘溢价，近一周美军在中东部署力度加大，局势升温风险 短期支撑原油走出偏强走势。伊朗地缘方面虽美军在中东部署增加， ...

棕油劲升、生猪下挫 一、农产品板块综述 油脂板块继续强势运行，棕榈油领涨，因马来西亚棕油供减需增， 且印度取消南美豆油采购，转向采购棕榈油，需求利好提振棕油扩大 上涨空间，后市料偏强运行。生猪破位下行，因养殖端在节前或集中 出栏，供应端压力较大，需求端对猪源承接一般，生猪期价扩大下行 空间，后市或偏弱运行。 二、品种策略跟踪 （一）棕榈油：强劲上扬 焦点关注：棕榈油主力 2605 合约强劲上扬，受到需求利好提振： 1. 棕榈油期价继续强劲走高，向上突破 9200 整数关位。高频数 据显示 1 月 1 日—25 日马来西亚棕榈油出口环比增长 9.97%，而同期 产量下降 14%，供减需增支撑棕油走高。此外印度再度取消巴西及阿 根廷 2 月和 4—7 月交付的豆油超 5 万吨，转向性价比更高的棕榈油 等热带植物油采购，给棕油带来利好提振。 2. 棕榈油 2605 合约多头增仓推动期价创阶段新高，期价在均线 系统之上扩涨，MACD 红柱放大，技术偏强，策略上逢低轻仓多单。 （二）生猪：突破下行 焦点关注：生猪主力 2603 合约突破下行，养殖端出栏压力仍存： 焦点关注：郑糖主力 2605 合约反弹受限，窄幅波动，报 ...

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Ratings No industry investment ratings are provided in the report. 2. Core Views - **Carbonate Lithium**: The price of carbonate lithium futures remains strong. Despite a significant pullback in the market yesterday due to profit - taking by high - position funds and stricter exchange supervision, the overall fundamental trend remains upward. The supply is expected to contract in the short term, and the demand is "not weak in the off - season", supporting the strong operation of the futures price [1]. - **Polysilicon**: The polysilicon futures are oscillating at a high level. The production of leading polysilicon enterprises has been fully shut down, and some enterprises have followed suit to reduce production. High inventory is suppressing the price, and the spot price has been continuously declining. However, manufacturers still have profits [7]. - **Industrial Silicon**: The industrial silicon futures are oscillating in a narrow range. It is currently in the (8500 - 9100) oscillation range. The demand side remains weak, and the key is to focus on whether the large - scale production reduction plan on the supply side can be implemented. If implemented, it may break through the oscillation range upward [16]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Carbonate Lithium - **Market Trend**: The main 2605 contract of carbonate lithium futures rose 8.40% compared with the previous trading day's closing price, reaching 179,600 yuan/ton [1]. - **Core Logic**: The supply is expected to contract due to the delayed resumption of lithium mines in Jiangxi and the annual maintenance plan of some lithium salt plants. The weekly inventory continued to decline last Thursday, and the demand is "not weak in the off - season" [1]. - **Technical Analysis**: The 5 - minute and overnight 2 - hour cycles of the main 2605 contract are showing strong signals, with the long - short dividing water level at 160,500 yuan/ton [1]. - **Strategy Recommendation**: Maintain the idea of buying on dips. Look for good entry positions according to the "First K Breakthrough Method" or "Three - Line Resonance Method" intraday [1]. - **Concerns**: Whether there is an upgrade in supervision, the resumption progress of Jiaxiaowo, and the production arrangement on the demand side [2] Polysilicon - **Market Trend**: The main 2605 contract of polysilicon futures rose 1.21% compared with the previous trading day's closing price, reaching 51,900 yuan/ton [7]. - **Core Logic**: Leading enterprises have shut down production, and some have reduced production. High inventory is suppressing the price, and the spot price is declining. The full cost is about 44,000 yuan/ton, and manufacturers still have profits [7][9]. - **Technical Analysis**: The 5 - minute and overnight 2 - hour cycles of the 2605 contract are showing strong signals, with the long - short dividing water level at 48,885 yuan/ton [9]. - **Strategy Recommendation**: It may oscillate weakly [10]. - **Concerns**: The latest quotation of silicon material enterprises to downstream [11] Industrial Silicon - **Market Trend**: The 2605 contract of industrial silicon futures fell 0.62% compared with the previous trading day's closing price, reaching 8,860 yuan/ton [16]. - **Core Logic**: It is in the (8500 - 9100) oscillation range. If the production reduction plan of Hesheng Silicon Industry is implemented, the monthly production reduction will reach 65,000 tons, accounting for about 16% of the total output, which will have a greater impact on the short - term supply side. The demand side remains weak [16]. - **Technical Analysis**: The 5 - minute cycle of the 2605 contract is a red line, red band, and green ladder, and the overnight 2 - hour cycle is a strong red ladder line, with the long - short dividing water level at 8,650 yuan/ton [16]. - **Strategy Recommendation**: Pay attention to the implementation of production reduction in the short term, operate after breaking through the range, and wait and see within the range. Intraday operations can refer to the Band Winner indicator [16]. - **Concerns**: Whether the large - scale production reduction plan can be implemented [17]

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core View of the Report The short - term market is dominated by geopolitical sentiments. For the oil market, the short - term fundamentals are weakening while the mid - term remains loosely pessimistic, but the geopolitical premium from Iran supports the strong short - term trend. The chemical industry is running strongly under the influence of sector sentiment, crude oil cost support, and capital inflows, and the end of the Iranian geopolitical impact needs to be monitored [2]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs (1) Crude Oil - Logic: US refinery operations decline and demand weakens, EIA weekly inventory accumulates significantly for two consecutive weeks, short - term fundamentals weaken, and mid - term fundamentals are loosely pessimistic. The short - term trading logic shifts to the Iranian geopolitical premium, and the increased US military deployment in the Middle East in the past week supports the strong short - term trend. The geopolitical uncertainty in Iran is high. Possible future scenarios include diplomatic negotiation restart under military pressure, a controllable situation after a US air strike and an Iranian counter - strike, and a low - probability scenario of the Iranian blockade of the Strait of Hormuz [2][3][4]. - Technical Tracking: The daily - level shows a mid - term downward structure, and the hourly - level shows a short - term upward structure. It increased with position today, and the short - term structure turns bullish, with the short - term support at 448. The strategy is to stop loss on short positions in the hourly cycle and then wait and see [4]. (2) Styrene - Logic: Short - term supply disruptions and export rumors lead to counter - seasonal inventory reduction, supporting short - term prices. However, after the recent significant profit expansion, there is pressure for maintenance devices to resume and increase production in the mid - term. The continuation of the short - term rise depends on capital sentiment and whether there is a large reduction in positions at high levels [7]. - Technical Tracking: The hourly - level shows a short - term upward structure. It oscillated today and closed with a long upper shadow, with the short - term (hourly) support at 7300. The strategy is to wait and see in the hourly cycle [7]. (3) Pure Benzene - Logic: The speculation space for pure benzene is weaker than that of styrene. It is mainly driven by the profit expansion of styrene and the potential positive impact of the expected reduction of US tariffs on South Korean pure benzene on domestic imports. The continuation of the short - term rise depends on capital sentiment and whether there is a large reduction in positions at high levels [10]. - Technical Tracking: The hourly - level shows a short - term upward structure. It oscillated today, with the short - term (hourly) support at 5930. The strategy is to wait and see in the hourly cycle [10]. (4) Rubber - Logic: There is no major contradiction in the natural rubber's own fundamentals. The rise is mainly driven by the substitution effect after the increase in synthetic rubber prices and follows the passive movement of synthetic rubber [12]. - Technical Analysis: The daily - level shows a mid - term oscillating structure, and the hourly - level shows a short - term upward structure. It oscillated today, with the short - term support at 15780. The strategy is to wait and see in the hourly cycle [12]. (5) Synthetic Rubber - Logic: The domestic butadiene production at the raw material end remains at a high level compared to the same period. The demand side is also stable, and the domestic fundamentals change little. However, the cold wave in Europe and the US pushes up overseas oil and gas prices and the expected short - term shutdown of overseas devices lead to a contraction in overseas butadiene supply, pushing up international butadiene prices. Short - term cost push and large capital inflows into the chemical sector last week drive the short - term strength of synthetic rubber [15]. - Technical Analysis: The daily - level shows a mid - term upward structure, and the hourly - level shows a short - term upward structure. It increased with position reduction today, with the short - term support at 12000. The strategy is to wait and see in the hourly cycle [15]. (6) PX - Logic: The supply - demand pattern is strong in the mid - term before the new production capacity comes online in the third quarter, but the market started trading in advance in December. Although there is a negative feedback logic from the decline in textile polyester in the short - term, capital inflows into the chemical sector since the second half of last week and the support from the rising crude oil cost due to geopolitical sentiment drive the short - term strength. The end of the Iranian geopolitical impact needs to be monitored [18]. - Technical Tracking: The daily - level shows a mid - term upward structure, and the hourly - level shows a short - term upward structure. It oscillated today, with the short - term support at 7325. The strategy is to wait and see in the hourly cycle [18]. (7) PTA - Logic: The short - term fundamentals are weak. It enters seasonal inventory accumulation due to weak demand in the off - season, and there is a negative feedback logic from the reduction of downstream polyester production. However, capital inflows into the chemical sector since the second half of last week and the support from the rising crude oil cost due to geopolitical sentiment drive the short - term strength. The end of the Iranian geopolitical impact needs to be monitored [21]. - Technical Tracking: The daily - level shows a mid - term upward structure, and the hourly - level shows a short - term upward structure. It oscillated today, with the short - term support at 5320. The strategy is to wait and see in the hourly cycle [21]. (8) PP - Logic: The fundamentals of the domestic olefin industry chain remain weak. The pressure of new production capacity release combined with the off - season demand makes the supply - demand drive weak. However, capital inflows into the chemical sector since the second half of last week and the cost support from the US cold wave drive the short - term strength. The continuation depends on when the capital reduces positions at high levels [24]. - Technical Tracking: The hourly - level shows a short - term upward structure. It increased with position today, with the short - term support at 6615. The strategy is to wait and see in the hourly cycle [24]. (9) Methanol - Logic: The port starts seasonal inventory reduction, but the extremely high inventory level compared to the same period and the negative feedback from the early shutdown and load reduction of MTO devices make the fundamentals weak. However, the recent rise in Iranian geopolitical sentiment and large capital inflows into the chemical sector last week drive the short - term strength of methanol [26]. - Technical Analysis: The daily - level shows a mid - term downward structure and a short - term upward structure. It increased with position today, with the short - term support at 2255. The strategy is to wait and see in the hourly cycle [26]. (10) PVC - Logic: High production, high inventory, and weak demand remain. It is affected by the chemical sector sentiment in the short - term, but the upward pressure is still huge [28]. - Technical Analysis: The daily - level shows a mid - term downward structure, and the hourly - level shows a short - term oscillating structure. It oscillated today, and the short - term structure is unclear. The strategy is to wait and see in the hourly cycle [28]. (11) Ethylene Glycol - Logic: The domestic fundamentals remain weak. There is seasonal inventory accumulation pressure, the supply operation is at a high level, and there is a negative feedback logic from the reduction of polyester demand. However, capital inflows into the chemical sector since the second half of last week and the impact of the US cold wave drive the short - term strength. The continuation depends on when the capital reduces positions at high levels [31]. - Technical Analysis: The daily - level shows a mid - term downward structure, and the hourly - level shows a short - term upward structure. It oscillated today, with the short - term support at 3825. The strategy is to wait and see in the hourly cycle [31]. (12) Plastic - Logic: The fundamentals of the domestic olefin industry chain remain weak. The pressure of new production capacity release combined with the off - season demand makes the supply - demand drive weak. However, capital inflows into the chemical sector since the second half of last week and the cost support from the US cold wave drive the short - term strength. The continuation depends on when the capital reduces positions at high levels [33]. - Technical Analysis: The daily - level shows a mid - term downward structure, and the hourly - level shows a short - term upward structure. It increased with position reduction today, with the short - term pressure at 6815. The strategy is to wait and see in the hourly cycle [33]. (13) Soda Ash - Logic: The fundamentals of soda ash remain high supply, weak demand, and high inventory, and the oversupply pattern continues. Although the soda ash production decreased slightly this week, it is still at the highest level compared to the same period and month - on - month, and the pressure of new production capacity release remains high. The demand side shows a small increase in the daily melting of float glass at a low level, and the daily melting of photovoltaic glass remains at the median of the same period in history. The total demand is still weak. The soda ash inventory decreased slightly due to the pre - holiday downstream replenishment demand, but the total inventory of 1.52 million tons is still at an extremely high level compared to the same period. Without unexpected policies, the far - month premium of soda ash is expected to be repaired downward month by month, and the 05 contract should maintain a short - selling idea [35]. - Technical Analysis: The hourly - level shows a short - term downward structure. It rebounded with position reduction today and tested the short - term pressure at 1215, and the pressure level is still limited. The strategy is to pay attention to short - selling opportunities on the reversal in the hourly cycle [35]. (14) Caustic Soda - Logic: Caustic soda remains in a pattern of high supply, high inventory, and weak demand (weak non - aluminum demand and weak alumina demand expectation). With sufficient comprehensive profits of chlor - alkali, chlor - alkali devices still maintain high - load operation, and the supply pressure is still huge. The downward drive continues and it is difficult to reverse [38]. - Technical Analysis: The hourly - level shows a short - term downward structure. It rebounded with position reduction today, with the short - term pressure at 2000. The strategy is to wait and see in the hourly cycle and do not buy at the bottom before the structure turns bullish [38].

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Ratings No investment ratings for the industry are provided in the report. 2. Core Views - **Carbonate Lithium**: The current fundamentals of carbonate lithium remain strong. Despite being in the off - season for downstream demand, the weekly inventory data continues to show a de - stocking pattern, supporting the futures price. However, the price has large fluctuations as it reaches higher levels [1]. - **Polysilicon**: The morning's sharp rise in polysilicon futures was mainly affected by the macro - emotional aspect. With the implementation of production cuts by leading enterprises, a decline in production is expected in January. Factory inventories have increased, and the expected prices of manufacturers and downstream users are weakening [4][7]. - **Industrial Silicon**: The industrial silicon futures are in an oscillating range. The demand side remains weak, and the key factor for future price movement is whether the production cut plans of large - scale manufacturers can be implemented [12]. 3. Summary by Category Carbonate Lithium - **Market Trend**: The futures price of carbonate lithium opened high and closed low today. The main 2605 contract fell 8.73% compared to the previous trading day's closing price, reaching 165,680 yuan/ton [1]. - **Core Logic**: In the short - term, the supply side has unexpectedly contracted. The resumption of production of 8 lithium - mining enterprises in Yichun, Jiangxi has been repeatedly delayed, and lithium salt plants have regular annual maintenance. Even in the off - season, the inventory is decreasing, supporting the futures price [1]. - **Technical Analysis**: It is currently controlled by bulls, with a significant decrease in intraday positions. The 5 - minute cycle of the main 2605 contract shows a green line, green band, and green ladder, while the overnight 2 - hour cycle has a strong red ladder line. The long - short dividing water level is 147,260 yuan/ton [1]. - **Strategy Suggestion**: Maintain the strategy of buying on dips. Due to the large price fluctuations, operate with caution. Use the "First K Breakthrough Method" or "Three - Line Resonance Method" to find entry points, and follow the 8:30 morning live - broadcast for specific operations [1]. - **Concerns**: Regulatory upgrades, the resumption progress of Jiaxiawo, and the production scheduling of the demand side [2] Polysilicon - **Market Trend**: The polysilicon futures oscillated today. The main 2605 contract rose 1.10% compared to the previous trading day's closing price, reaching 51,280 yuan/ton [4]. - **Core Logic**: The morning's sharp rise was due to the macro - emotional aspect as domestic commodities generally rose. Leading polysilicon enterprises have implemented production cuts, and it is expected that the output in January will drop to around 90,000 tons. The increase in downstream component output is limited, and the factory inventory has increased this week [4][7]. - **Technical Analysis**: The 5 - minute cycle of the 2605 contract shows a green line, blue band, and green ladder, and the overnight 2 - hour cycle has a strong red ladder line. The long - short dividing water level is 48,885 yuan/ton [7]. - **Strategy Suggestion**: It may oscillate weakly [8]. - **Concerns**: The latest quotes of silicon material enterprises to downstream users [9] Industrial Silicon - **Market Trend**: The industrial silicon futures oscillated today. The 2605 contract rose 1.08% compared to the previous trading day's closing price, reaching 8,915 yuan/ton [12]. - **Core Logic**: It is currently in the oscillating range of (8,500 - 9,100). The demand side remains weak. If the production cut plan of Hesheng Silicon Industry is implemented, it will have a large impact on the short - term supply side [12]. - **Technical Analysis**: It is controlled by bulls, with a significant increase in today's positions. The 5 - minute cycle of the 2605 contract shows a green line, red band, and green ladder, and the overnight 2 - hour cycle has a strong red ladder line. The long - short dividing water level is 8,650 yuan/ton [12]. - **Strategy Suggestion**: In the short - term, focus on whether the production cut plan is implemented. Operate after breaking through the range and observe within the range. Refer to the Band Winner indicator during the 8:30 morning live - broadcast for intraday operations [12]. - **Concerns**: Whether the production cut plans of large - scale manufacturers can be implemented [13]

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The agricultural products sector shows a mixed performance, with vegetable oils rising across the board and led by rapeseed oil, while live pigs are falling. Rapeseed oil may remain strong in the future, and the subsequent start of the Spring Festival stocking for live pigs should be continuously monitored [1]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs 3.1 Agricultural Products Sector Overview - Rapeseed oil is leading the rise in the vegetable oil sector due to the increase in crude oil prices and potential US tariffs on Canada. The supply situation remains unimproved, and domestic rapeseed oil inventory is low year - on - year, supporting its upward trend. Live pigs are declining because of possible concentrated slaughter at the end of the year and the lack of concentrated manifestation of the holiday effect on the demand side [1]. 3.2 Variety Strategy Tracking 3.2.1 Oils - Rapeseed oil and palm oil prices are rising. The main 2605 contract of rapeseed oil has soared by over 4%. Although China - Canada economic and trade relations have improved, the US threat of 100% tariffs on Canada may affect the import of Canadian rapeseed. Domestic rapeseed oil output is stagnant year - on - year, and the inventory is low. Malaysian palm oil supply - demand has improved, with production in January 1 - 20 down 16.06% month - on - month and exports from January 1 - 25 up 10% month - on - month, potentially leading to inventory reduction. The strategy is to go long on rapeseed oil at low prices after a pull - back [2]. 3.2.2 Live Pigs - The main 2603 contract of live pigs has opened low and fallen. As the Spring Festival approaches, the slaughter window for farmers is narrowing, and there may be concentrated slaughter at the end of the year. The demand side has certain stocking needs, but the concentrated effect is not obvious. The strategy is to conduct short - term trading [3]. 3.2.3 Sugar - The main 2605 contract of Zhengzhou sugar has rebounded but is limited. China's new sugar is concentrated on the market, and the import volume has increased significantly. The pre - holiday stocking boost is limited, and the market is cautious. The strategy is to go short at high prices, with resistance at 5200 - 5210 [6]. 3.2.4 Eggs - The main 2603 contract of eggs has opened high and then fallen, with the market fluctuating. The Spring Festival stocking has boosted demand, but the high inventory of laying hens still brings supply pressure. The strategy is to go short - term long at low prices, with a support area of 3050 - 3060 [7][9]. 3.2.5 Soybean Meal - The main 2605 contract of soybean meal has risen in an oscillatory manner. The increase in the price of US soybeans and the approaching Spring Festival have led to increased downstream stocking demand. The strategy is to go long with a light position, with support at 2749 - 2754 [10]. 3.2.6 Cotton - The main 2605 contract of cotton has fallen in an oscillatory manner. Domestic commercial inventory has increased slightly, and Xinjiang's inventory has decreased. The demand side has certain resilience, and the high - count yarn order demand is strong. The strategy is to go long with a light position at low prices, with a support area of 14465 - 14535 [12].