豆粕反弹受限、棕油下挫、鸡蛋走低 一、观点概述 豆粕期价在油厂高压榨量和库存累库后大幅下跌，期价跌至低位 后反弹，但反弹空间料受限，后市或低位波动。 棕榈油破位下行，原油下挫及相关油脂走低带动棕榈油行情下跌， 且产地仍处增产季，马棕出口转弱，国内棕油进口增加，库存亦增， 大连棕油期价承压走低，后市偏弱运行。 鸡蛋养殖端蛋鸡存栏高企，天气转凉产蛋率回升且蛋重增加，加 之冷库蛋持续出库，供应端压力较大，需求端在中秋备货接近尾声后 支撑作用减弱，鸡蛋反弹乏力，后市或再度走低。 二、周报正文 （一）豆粕反弹有限 9 月份第三周，豆粕期价大幅下跌，因中美经贸会谈令市场对国 内进口大豆供给可能增加的预期升温，若四季度中国恢复采购美豆将 使得大豆供需前景改善。同时国内油厂压榨量居高不下，豆粕供应增 加，库存持续累库创新高，油厂催提压力较大，豆粕价格承压下跌。 但是到周末市场面临不确定风险，已公布的中美经贸谈判进展暂未涉 及农产品，部分空头减仓离场，推动豆粕期价低位反弹，现货市场因 油厂催提压力大而出现回购现象，贸易商尽可能延长执行周期，以时 间换空间，且面临国庆双节假期，逢低补库有所增加，支撑现货价格， 豆粕期价低位反弹， ...

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. 2. Core Viewpoints - Overall, the report analyzes multiple chemical products, with most showing a bearish or neutral outlook. The main influencing factors include supply - demand fundamentals, cost drivers, and geopolitical events. For crude oil, despite short - term geopolitical support, the medium - term supply surplus is likely, so a bearish view is maintained [1][2]. - For other products like styrene, rubber, and synthetic rubber, factors such as high inventory, weak demand, and cost pressure contribute to their bearish or neutral stances [5][8][11]. 3. Summary by Product Crude Oil - Logic: After a significant decline last week, a rebound on Friday night was related to geopolitical events. However, considering OPEC+ production increase and seasonal weakening of US demand, a supply surplus is likely in the second half of the year. The strategy is based on the bearish medium - term fundamentals [1][2]. - Technical Analysis: The daily - level shows a medium - term downward structure, and the hourly - level shows a short - term oscillating structure. The strategy is to hold short positions at the hourly level [2]. Styrene (EB) - Logic: The weekly fundamentals have not improved significantly. High profits, high production, and high inventory persist, and new device production in September - October will add to the supply pressure. The bearish view remains [5]. - Technical Analysis: The hourly - level shows a short - term oscillating structure. After a long - negative break today, the 15 - minute cycle is bearish with a pressure level at 7100. The strategy is to look for short - selling opportunities at the 15 - minute cycle [5]. Rubber - Logic: Overseas raw material prices have fallen, weakening cost support. Although inventory is decreasing, the year - on - year high pressure remains. The demand is neutral with no major contradictions [8]. - Technical Analysis: The daily - level shows a medium - term oscillating structure, and the hourly - level shows a downward structure. After a long - negative break today, the short - term downward trend is confirmed. The strategy is to hold short positions at the hourly level [8]. Synthetic Rubber (BR) - Logic: The supply - demand of synthetic rubber itself has no major contradictions. The main concern is the cost of butadiene, with increasing port inventory and future supply pressure. The bearish view is based on cost [11]. - Technical Analysis: The daily - level shows a medium - term oscillating/downward structure, and the hourly - level shows a short - term downward structure. After a new low today, the strategy is to hold short positions at the hourly level with a stop - profit at 11730 [14]. PX - Logic: PX profit has recovered, and the operating rate has increased. The demand recovery in the polyester peak season is slower than expected. The main driver is the cost of crude oil [16][18]. - Technical Analysis: The hourly - level shows a short - term oscillating structure. The 15 - minute cycle has turned bearish with a pressure level at 6760. The strategy is to look for short - selling opportunities at the 15 - minute cycle [18]. PTA - Logic: PTA supply has increased, and demand remains high but with weak terminal demand. The main driver is the cost of crude oil [19]. - Technical Analysis: The hourly - level shows a short - term oscillating structure. The strategy is to hold short positions at the hourly level [19]. PP - Logic: Demand has improved slightly in the peak season, but supply pressure has increased due to new device production. The strategy is to be cautious about short - selling after the price decline [22][23]. - Technical Analysis: The hourly - level shows a short - term oscillating structure. The 15 - minute cycle has turned bearish with a pressure level at 6975. The strategy is to look for short - selling opportunities at the 15 - minute cycle [23]. Methanol - Logic: High operating rate and high imports have led to inventory pressure. Although downstream MTO profit has improved, the bearish view remains [26]. - Technical Analysis: The daily - level shows a medium - term downward/oscillating structure, and the hourly - level shows a short - term downward structure. After a new low today, the strategy is to hold the remaining short positions at the hourly level with a stop - profit at 2435 [26]. PVC - Logic: High production and high inventory persist due to high - profit烧碱 and weak domestic demand. The fundamentals are under pressure [29]. - Technical Analysis: The daily - level shows a medium - term upward structure, and the hourly - level shows a short - term upward structure. After a long - negative break today, the strategy is to wait and see at the hourly level [29]. Ethylene Glycol (EG) - Logic: The operating rate of MEG and downstream has little change, and inventory is slightly decreasing. However, future supply pressure from new devices should be noted [30]. - Technical Analysis: The daily - level shows a medium - term oscillating/downward structure, and the hourly - level shows a short - term downward structure. After a decline today, the strategy is to hold short positions at the hourly level with a stop - profit at 4335 [30]. Plastic - Logic: PE operating rate has declined, but new capacity has been put into production. Demand has improved slightly in the peak season but is still below expectations. Further decline depends on the weakening of crude oil [33]. - Technical Analysis: The daily - level shows a medium - term oscillating/downward structure, and the hourly - level shows a short - term downward structure. After a decline today, the strategy is to hold short positions at the hourly level with a stop - loss at 7270 [33]. Soda Ash - Logic: Supply has increased slightly, and the high - production and high - inventory situation remains. After a price decline, short - selling should be cautious, and there is no upward driver in the short term [37]. - Technical Analysis: The hourly - level shows an upward structure. After a long - negative break today, the 15 - minute cycle has turned bearish with a pressure level at 1320. The strategy is to look for short - selling opportunities at the 15 - minute cycle [37]. Caustic Soda - Logic: Supply of liquid chlorine is sufficient, and demand from alumina and other industries has recovered. Inventory has decreased, and the short - term fundamentals have improved. The medium - term focus is on device maintenance and demand improvement [40]. - Technical Analysis: The hourly - level shows a downward structure. After a long - negative break today, the strategy is to hold short positions at the hourly level with a stop - profit at 2625 [40].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the report 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The energy and chemical sector is influenced by geopolitical factors and fundamental supply - demand situations. Most products in the sector are recommended to hold short - positions, mainly due to the high probability of supply - demand surplus in the second half of the year, especially for crude oil. Short - term geopolitical disturbances should not be over - emphasized, and investment decisions should be based on the mid - term fundamental situation [1][2] 3. Summary by Related Catalogs (1) Crude Oil - **Logic**: After a significant decline last week, a rebound on Friday night was related to geopolitical events. However, considering OPEC+ production increases and weakening US demand, the probability of supply - demand surplus in the second half of the year is high. The mid - term bearish view based on the fundamental surplus situation should be maintained [2] - **Technical Analysis**: The daily - level is in a mid - term decline structure, and the hourly - level is in a short - term oscillation structure. The upper limit of the oscillation range is around 491. There is an opportunity to short at high prices near the upper limit of the range, with a stop - loss reference of 491 [2] - **Strategy**: Hold short - positions at the hourly level, and try short - selling at the upper limit of the range at the end of the day, with a stop - loss of 491 [2] (2) Benzene Ethylene (EB) - **Logic**: The weekly fundamentals of benzene ethylene have not improved significantly. High profits, high production, and high inventory situations persist, and new device launches in September - October will increase supply pressure. The downward drive of fundamentals remains [4] - **Technical Analysis**: The hourly - level is in a short - term decline structure. The rebound today did not exceed the short - term pressure of 7105, and the decline path remains unchanged [7] - **Strategy**: Hold the remaining short - positions at the hourly cycle, with a final stop - profit reference of 7105 [7] (3) Rubber - **Logic**: Overseas raw material prices have declined, weakening cost support. Although inventory is decreasing, the year - on - year high inventory pressure still exists. The fundamentals are currently neutral [9] - **Technical Analysis**: The daily - level is in a mid - term oscillation structure, and the hourly - level is facing a decline structure. After a rebound today, pay attention to the opportunity to short if it fails to break through the hourly - level pressure of 16050 at night [9] - **Strategy**: Stop - loss the 15 - minute short - positions, and then pay attention to short - selling opportunities if it fails to break through the hourly - level pressure [9] (4) Synthetic Rubber (BR) - **Logic**: The supply - demand of synthetic rubber itself has no major contradictions. The main concern is the cost side, especially butadiene. With the arrival of ship cargoes and future capacity expansion, the cost side is bearish [12] - **Technical Analysis**: The daily - level is in a mid - term oscillation/decline structure, and the hourly - level is in a short - term decline structure. The rebound today did not exceed the short - term pressure of 11760, and there is potential for further decline [15] - **Strategy**: Hold short - positions at the hourly cycle, with a stop - profit reference of 11760 [15] (5) PX - **Logic**: PX profits have recovered, and the operating rate has increased. The demand recovery is slower than expected. The main factor to watch is the cost - side drive from crude oil [18] - **Technical Analysis**: The hourly - level short - term decline structure is being tested. Pay attention to the 15 - minute upper limit pressure of 6770 [20] - **Strategy**: Hold the remaining short - positions at the hourly cycle [20] (6) PTA - **Logic**: PTA supply has increased, and demand is stable. The terminal operating rate in the peak season is weaker than expected. The main factor to watch is the cost - side drive from crude oil [22] - **Technical Analysis**: The hourly - level is in a short - term decline structure. The upper short - term pressure is 4700 [22] - **Strategy**: Hold short - positions at the hourly cycle, with a stop - profit reference of 4700 [22] (7) PP - **Logic**: Demand has improved slightly in the peak season, but supply pressure has increased due to new capacity launches. Pay attention to the cost - side collapse logic [25] - **Technical Analysis**: The hourly - level is in a short - term decline structure. The upper short - term pressure is 6985 [26] - **Strategy**: Hold short - positions at the hourly cycle [26] (8) Methanol - **Logic**: High operating rates and high imports have led to high inventory pressure. Although downstream MTO profits have improved, the bearish fundamental pattern remains [30] - **Technical Analysis**: The daily - level is in a mid - term decline/oscillation structure, and the short - term is in a decline structure. The rebound today did not exceed the short - term pressure of 2435 [30] - **Strategy**: Hold the remaining short - positions at the hourly cycle cautiously, with a final stop - profit reference of 2435 [30] (9) PVC - **Logic**: High production and high inventory patterns persist due to high caustic soda profits and weak downstream demand [31] - **Technical Analysis**: The daily - level is in a mid - term rise structure, and the hourly - level is in a short - term decline structure. The upper short - term pressure is 4930 [33] - **Strategy**: Hold short - positions at the hourly cycle [33] (10) EG - **Logic**: Current supply - demand contradictions are not significant, but supply pressure may increase in the future. Pay attention to the impact of new capacity launches [34] - **Technical Analysis**: The daily - level is in a mid - term oscillation/decline structure, and the hourly - level is in a decline structure. The short - term pressure is 4335 [34] - **Strategy**: Hold short - positions at the hourly cycle, with a stop - profit reference of 4335 [34] (11) Plastic - **Logic**: New capacity has increased supply pressure, and demand recovery in the peak season is limited. Further decline requires the cost - side crude oil to continue to weaken [36] - **Technical Analysis**: The daily - level is in a mid - term oscillation/decline structure, and the hourly - level is in a decline structure. The upper short - term pressure is 7270 [36] - **Strategy**: Hold short - positions at the hourly cycle, with a stop - loss reference of 7270 [36] (12) Soda Ash - **Logic**: Supply is continuously increasing, and the high - production and high - inventory pattern remains. Although the previous over - valuation has been corrected, there is no upward drive in the short term [39] - **Technical Analysis**: The hourly - level is in a decline structure. The rebound today did not exceed the pressure, and the decline structure remains unchanged. The upper short - term pressure is 1320 [39] - **Strategy**: Hold short - positions at the hourly cycle [39] (13) Caustic Soda - **Logic**: Supply is abundant, but demand has improved, and inventory pressure has been relieved. Mid - term attention should be paid to the impact of device maintenance and peak - season demand [43] - **Technical Analysis**: The hourly - level is in a decline structure. The daily oscillation did not change the decline structure. The upper short - term pressure is 2625 [43] - **Strategy**: Hold short - positions at the hourly cycle, with a stop - profit reference of 2625 [43]

豆粕玉米大跌，鸡蛋劲升 一、农产品板块综述 豆粕大幅下跌，中美经贸会谈令市场对四季度大豆供应偏紧预期 降温，国内油厂高压榨量使得豆粕产量增加，库存持续累库，豆粕期 价承压下挫，走势转弱。玉米亦大幅下跌，受到新玉米即将集中上市 的压力，玉米多头大量平仓推动期价大跌，走势转入下行趋势。鸡蛋 劲升，因双节备货需求提振，且养殖端老母鸡出栏增加，产能有所去 化，市场推涨情绪升温，推动期价劲升，走势转强。 二、品种策略跟踪 （一）豆粕：大幅下跌 焦点关注：豆粕主力 2601 合约大幅下跌，受到中美经贸会谈消 息的影响： 力 3080。 （二）鸡蛋：劲升 焦点关注：鸡蛋主力 2511 合约跳高上扬，受到双节临近备货需 求提振： 1.双节临近，下游环节及食品企业备货量增加，需求端好转的同 时供应端老母鸡出栏量持续增加，供需关系改善，市场推涨情绪较强， 期现共振上涨，周末销区走货较好，现货鸡蛋价格维持上涨态势。但 是蛋鸡存栏量处于历史高位，加上低价冷库蛋源源不断流入市场，蛋 价上方仍然有较大压力，或限制鸡蛋的上涨空间。 2.鸡蛋主力 2511 合约高开高走，劲升至 20 日均线之上，且接近 40 日均线，空头大幅平仓推动期价大 ...

Report Industry Investment Rating There is no information provided in the content about the report industry investment rating. Core Viewpoints The report analyzes the mid - term and short - term structures of various energy and chemical products, and provides corresponding trading strategies based on the fundamental and technical analysis of each product. The overall market shows a complex situation with different trends for different products, and many products are affected by factors such as supply - demand relationship, cost, and geopolitical events [1][2]. Summary by Product Crude Oil - Logic: OPEC+ starts the second - stage 165 barrels/day复产 plan. In October, it will increase production by 137,000 barrels/day. The market has a large surplus expectation after the first - stage复产, and the second - stage复产 will add to the pressure with the demand shifting from peak to off - peak season. Geopolitical events and sanctions expectations bring short - term support, but the fundamental trend is downward [2]. - Technical Analysis: Mid - term and short - term downward structures. The intraday trend is a bit subtle, testing the short - term pressure of 489 (11 contract). It is recommended to observe for one more day. The hourly - level short positions can be held cautiously [2]. Styrene (EB) - Logic: The weekly start - up rate has a slight increase, but there are unplanned maintenance. The downstream profit is poor, the start - up rates of ABS and EPS decline, and the port inventory continues to accumulate, which is a short - term pressure point. After the autumn maintenance peak, there will be new device put - into - production pressure in September - October, and the supply - demand situation is weak. There is also the risk of inventory over - filling [5]. - Technical Analysis: The hourly - level short - term downward structure is being tested. After a sharp fall, it is in a normal repair period. It has reached above the short - term pressure of 7040 (10 contract). The remaining short positions can be held cautiously, with the final stop - profit at 7180 [5]. Rubber - Logic: Seasonal factors are strong, but there is no weather speculation on the supply side. Only short - term typhoons and rainy seasons make raw material prices strong. The import volume in August increases both year - on - year and month - on - month, with a continuous increase expectation. The start - up rate of semi - steel tires decreases significantly, while that of all - steel tires remains high. The current fundamentals are neutral [7]. - Technical Analysis: Mid - term oscillation structure at the daily level, and the hourly - level upward structure is being tested. After an increase in positions and a fall below the support of 15880, the short - term upward trend is under threat. It is close to the lower limit of the August range. It is recommended to wait and see at the hourly level and look for short - selling opportunities on the 15 - minute chart after a rebound fails to break through the pressure of 16000 [7]. Synthetic Rubber (BR) - Logic: There is no major contradiction in the supply - demand of styrene - butadiene rubber. The start - up rate and output of some devices decrease due to maintenance, and the inventory of downstream semi - steel tires also drops. The main contradiction lies in the cost of butadiene. With the arrival of a large number of ships, the port inventory has increased significantly, ending the previous tight situation. In the medium term, the supply pressure of butadiene will gradually appear, and the upstream crude oil will also face surplus pressure [10]. - Technical Analysis: Mid - term oscillation/downward structure at the daily level, and short - term downward structure at the hourly level. Since August 22, the position has increased by 97%. After an increase in positions and a break - through today, it may end the oscillation and turn to a downward trend. The short - term pressure is at 11760. The 15 - minute short positions can be held at the hourly level, with the stop - profit at 11760 [13]. PX - Logic: The profit of PX is restored, and the start - up rate is increasing after the maintenance peak. The domestic PX load is 83%, and the Asian PX load is 75%. The demand - side device maintenance and复产 co - exist, but the overall start - up rate of PTA has declined, and the previous inventory reduction has slowed down. The short - term fundamentals have weakened, and more attention should be paid to the cost of crude oil [17]. - Technical Analysis: The hourly - level short - term downward structure is being tested. The intraday trend is oscillatory, and the small - cycle should pay attention to the pressure at 6770 on the 15 - minute chart. The remaining short positions can be held [17]. PTA - Logic: It lacks its own driving force, and attention should be paid to the cost collapse logic of crude oil [21]. - Technical Analysis: Hourly - level short - term downward structure. The intraday oscillation does not change the downward trend. The short - term pressure is at 4700. The short positions can be held, with the stop - profit at 4700 [21]. PP - Logic: The supply - side start - up rate increases, and new devices will be put into production. The demand enters the peak season, and the supply - demand pressure is not obvious. Attention should be paid to the cost collapse logic [22]. - Technical Analysis: Hourly - level short - term downward structure. The intraday trend is oscillatory. The short - term pressure at the hourly level is 7090, which is relatively far. Attention can be paid to the 6990 pressure on the 15 - minute short - cycle. If it breaks through, partial stop - profit can be made [22]. Methanol - Logic: The domestic and overseas start - up rates are high, and the arrival pressure in September is large. The port inventory continues to accumulate, reaching a record high in the past 5 years. The downstream demand is weak, and the short - term pressure is great [24]. - Technical Analysis: Mid - term downward/oscillation and short - term downward structures. After an increase in positions and a fall, the 15 - minute cycle turns down. Attention should be paid to whether the hourly - level downward slope returns. The short - term pressure is at 2435. The remaining short positions can be held cautiously, with the final stop - profit at 2435 [24]. PVC - Logic: After the previous maintenance, the start - up rate remains at a high level of 75%. The comprehensive profit of chlor - alkali is strong, so the supply is difficult to reduce. The inventory continues to accumulate to the highest level in the same period of history. Before the real estate bottoms out, the demand is difficult to improve, and the fundamentals are bearish [27]. - Technical Analysis: Mid - term upward structure at the daily level and short - term downward structure at the hourly level. The intraday oscillation does not change the downward trend. The short - term pressure is at 4930. The short positions can be held [27]. Ethylene Glycol (EG) - Logic: The port inventory is at a low level in recent years, so the fundamentals are relatively strong compared with other energy and chemical products. But with the increase in domestic start - up rate, it is expected to enter the inventory - accumulation cycle. The short - term situation is strong, but the medium - term expectation is bearish [30]. - Technical Analysis: Mid - term oscillation/downward and short - term downward structures. The intraday oscillation, but the closing price hits a new low, and the short - term decline may accelerate. The short - term pressure is at 4375. The short positions can be held, with the stop - loss at 4375 [30]. Plastic - Logic: The start - up rate of PE is stable, and the demand improvement in the peak season is slow. The fundamental driving force is general [32]. - Technical Analysis: Mid - term oscillation/downward and short - term downward structures. The intraday trend is oscillatory. The short - term pressure at the hourly level is 7365, which is relatively far. Attention can be paid to the 7290 pressure on the 15 - minute small - cycle. The 15 - minute short positions can be held, with the stop - loss at 7290 [32]. Soda Ash - Logic: After the end of the anti - involution hype, the glass - soda ash with the greatest supply - demand pressure starts the spot - futures regression logic before delivery. The anti - involution has no real impact on the supply. The over - capacity trend continues, and the output has further increased after the price increase. The real estate demand is difficult to bottom out, and the supply - strong and demand - weak situation remains unchanged. The large inventory and high - output pressure continue to suppress the price [33]. - Technical Analysis: Hourly - level downward structure. The intraday oscillation does not change the downward trend. The short - term pressure is at 1320. The short positions can be held [33]. Caustic Soda - Logic: Last week, the supply - side output and start - up rate decreased due to autumn maintenance and transportation restrictions during the military parade. After the parade on September 3, the supply - side speculation may end. The export demand is at a high level but the profit is declining, and the domestic non - aluminum demand is rising in the early peak season, while the alumina demand remains flat at a high level. The overall supply - demand is strong, but the supply pressure is greater. The inventory is at a record high in the past 5 years, and there is an over - supply situation after the start - up rate recovers [36]. - Technical Analysis: Hourly - level downward structure. The intraday oscillation does not change the downward trend. The short - term pressure is at 2625. The short positions can be held, with the stop - profit at 2625 [36].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The agricultural product sector shows a mixed performance. Bean meal, jujube, and some oils are rising, while cotton and pigs are facing downward pressure or limited rebounds. The market is mainly influenced by factors such as supply - demand expectations, USDA reports, and seasonal consumption patterns [1]. 3. Summary by Variety (1) Bean Meal - The main 2601 contract of bean meal rose and recovered the losses of the previous two days, driven by the rebound of US soybean futures. The market expects the USDA to lower the US soybean yield forecast. Although domestic bean meal inventory increased in September, the uncertainty of Sino - US economic and trade relations and the tightening of soybean supply in the fourth quarter support the price. Before the USDA report, short - term trading is recommended, with support at 3065 and resistance at 3100 [2]. (2) Palm Oil - The main 2601 contract of palm oil first declined and then rose. After the release of the MPOB's bearish monthly report, the price digested the negative pressure. The rise of crude oil, the expected moderate bullishness of the USDA report, and the decline in Malaysian palm oil production in early September supported the price. Before the USDA report, close short positions and conduct short - term trading, with support at 9250 and resistance at 9394 [3]. (3) Soybean Oil - The main 2601 contract of soybean oil rebounded. Before the USDA report, short - covering boosted the price. Domestic soybean oil supply is sufficient, but the start of double - festival stocking supports the price. Close short positions and wait for opportunities, with support at 8250 and resistance at 8366 [5]. (4) Eggs - The main 2511 contract of eggs fluctuated slightly higher at a low level. The double - festival stocking demand supported the price in the near term, but the high egg - laying hen inventory and the approaching peak egg - laying season may increase supply pressure. Hold short positions, with support at 3000 and resistance at 3069 [7]. (5) Apples - The main 2601 contract of apples continued to rise. The procurement of early - maturing apples in the western region was active, and the reduction of seasonal fruits and double - festival stocking demand supported the price. Close short positions and hold light long positions, with support at 8150 and resistance at 8300 [10]. (6) Jujubes - The main 2601 contract of jujubes rose strongly. There is a strong expectation of new jujube production reduction this year, and the market has high expectations for the opening price in October. The start of double - festival stocking and the approaching sugar - increasing stage support the price. Hold light long positions, with support at 11110 and resistance at 11315 [11][13]. (7) Sugar - The main 2601 contract of Zhengzhou sugar continued to rebound, driven by the rise of overseas raw sugar futures. The adjustment expectation of the sugar - making ratio in Brazil and the domestic mid - autumn stocking supported the price. Close short positions, with support at 5531 and resistance at 5580 [14]. (8) Corn - The main 2511 contract of corn rebounded slightly after two - day decline. The new corn is starting to be listed, with high opening prices and active downstream procurement. Close short positions and conduct short - term trading, with support at 2184 and resistance at 2210 [17]. (9) Cotton - The main 2601 contract of cotton continued to decline. There is a strong expectation of new cotton production increase in China, and the consumption recovery is slow. Hold light short positions, with support at 13780 and resistance at 13900 [20]. (10) Pigs - The main 2511 contract of pigs fluctuated lower, with limited rebound. The supply is in excess in September, but there is an expectation of increased demand during the double - festivals. Hold short positions, with support at 13200 and resistance at 13400 [21][23].

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. Core View of the Report The report analyzes the market conditions of various energy and chemical products, including their fundamental logic, technical analysis, and trading strategies. Most products show a bearish or neutral outlook, with suggestions mainly to hold short positions or wait and see. Summary by Variety Crude Oil - Logic: OPEC+ started the second - phase 165,000 barrels/day复产 plan, with an expected large surplus after the first - phase复产. The second - phase复产 combined with the demand shift from peak to off - season will increase supply and decrease demand. South American situation is tense but not significantly worsened, and the fundamental drive is downward [2][3]. - Technical Analysis: Mid - term downward structure on the daily chart, short - term downward structure on the hourly chart. Today's rebound is for testing the short - term pressure at 489 (11 contract) [3]. - Strategy: Hold short positions on the hourly level, with a stop - loss reference of 489 [3]. Styrene (EB) - Logic: Weekly开工 increased slightly but there are unplanned overhauls. Downstream profits are poor, ABS and EPS开工 decreased, and port inventory continued to accumulate. After the autumn overhaul peak, new device commissioning in September - October will bring supply pressure, and the supply - demand pattern is weak [6]. - Technical Analysis: The short - term downward structure on the hourly chart is being tested. Today's intraday is oscillating, and it's a normal repair after the previous sharp drop. Standing above the short - term pressure of 7040 on the 10 - contract challenges the hourly downward structure [6]. - Strategy: Cautiously hold the remaining short positions on the hourly cycle, with a final take - profit at 7180 [6]. Rubber - Logic: Seasonal factors are strong, but there is no weather speculation on the supply side this year. Only short - term typhoons and rainy seasons make raw material prices temporarily strong. Imports increased in August. On the demand side, semi - steel tire开工 dropped significantly, while full - steel tire开工 remained high. The current fundamentals are neutral [9]. - Technical Analysis: Mid - term oscillating structure on the daily chart, upward structure on the hourly chart. Today's intraday is oscillating. After the previous technical breakthrough, the hourly level is considered an upward structure, with short - term support at 15880 [9]. - Strategy: Wait and see on the hourly cycle [9]. Synthetic Rubber (BR) - Logic: There is no major contradiction in the supply - demand of styrene - butadiene rubber. Supply - side device overhauls led to a drop in开工 and output, and downstream semi - steel tire inventory also decreased. The main contradiction lies in the cost side of butadiene. With the arrival of cargo ships, port inventory has increased significantly, and the supply pressure will gradually materialize in the medium - term [13]. - Technical Analysis: Mid - term oscillating/downward structure on the daily chart, waiting for the short - term trend structure to be established on the hourly chart. Today's intraday is oscillating, and the hourly line closed at the lower edge of the oscillation range. Wait for the night session to verify the downward breakthrough [13]. - Strategy: Hold short positions on the 15 - minute small cycle, with a take - profit reference of 11960 on the 15 - minute level [13]. PX - Logic: PX profit recovery and the end of the overhaul peak led to an increase in开工. The overall开工 of PTA decreased, and the previous destocking of PX slowed down. The short - term fundamentals weakened, and more attention should be paid to the cost - end impact of crude oil [16][19]. - Technical Analysis: The short - term downward structure on the hourly chart is being tested. Today's intraday is oscillating, and the hourly cycle's downward trend has not reversed. Pay attention to the 15 - minute upper - edge pressure at 6770 [19]. - Strategy: Hold the remaining short positions on the hourly cycle [19]. PTA - Logic: It lacks its own driving force, and attention should be paid to the cost - end collapse logic of crude oil [20]. - Technical Analysis: Short - term downward structure on the hourly chart. Today's intraday oscillation did not change the downward structure, with the short - term pressure at 4700 [20]. - Strategy: Hold short positions on the hourly cycle, with a take - profit reference of 4700 [20]. PP - Logic: Supply - side开工 increased, and new devices will be put into operation in August - September. Demand entered the peak season, and the supply - demand pressure is not obvious. Attention should be paid to the cost - end collapse logic [23]. - Technical Analysis: Short - term downward structure on the hourly chart. Today's intraday is oscillating, and the short - term pressure at 7090 is far. Pay attention to the 15 - minute short - cycle pressure at 6990, and partial take - profit can be done if it breaks through [23]. - Strategy: Hold short positions on the hourly cycle [23]. Methanol - Logic: Domestic and overseas methanol开工 remained high, and the port inventory continued to accumulate to a five - year high in September. Downstream demand weakened, and the short - term pressure is huge [27]. - Technical Analysis: Mid - term downward/oscillating on the daily chart, short - term downward on the hourly chart. Today's intraday is oscillating, with short - term pressure at 2435 [27]. - Strategy: Cautiously hold the remaining short positions on the hourly cycle, with the hourly line 2435 as the final take - profit [27]. PVC - Logic: Previous overhauls ended,开工 remained at a high of 75%. The strong comprehensive profit of chlor - alkali makes it difficult to reduce PVC supply. Inventory accumulated to the highest level in the same period, and demand is hard to improve before the real estate bottoms out [30]. - Technical Analysis: Mid - term upward structure on the daily chart, short - term downward structure on the hourly chart. Today's intraday is oscillating, and the downward structure remains unchanged after a rebound. The short - term pressure is at 4965 [31][32]. - Strategy: Hold short positions on the hourly cycle [32]. Ethylene Glycol (EG) - Logic: Port inventory is at a multi - year low, making its fundamentals relatively strong compared to other energy and chemical products. However, with the increase in domestic开工, it is expected to enter an inventory - accumulation cycle. Short - term is strong, but medium - term is bearish [34]. - Technical Analysis: Mid - term oscillating/downward structure on the daily chart, short - term downward structure on the hourly chart. Today's intraday oscillation did not change the downward structure, with short - term pressure at 4375 [34]. - Strategy: Convert 15 - minute short positions to hourly positions, with a stop - loss reference of 4375 [34]. Plastic - Logic: PE开工 remained stable, and the demand improvement in the peak season is slow. The fundamental driving force is average [37]. - Technical Analysis: Mid - term oscillating/downward structure on the daily chart, short - term downward structure on the hourly chart. Today's intraday is oscillating, and the short - term pressure at 7365 is far. First, pay attention to the 15 - minute small - cycle pressure at 7305 [37]. - Strategy: Hold short positions on the 15 - minute level, with a stop - loss reference of 7305 [37]. Soda Ash - Logic: After the anti - involution speculation ended, the glass - soda ash with the greatest supply - demand pressure entered the spot - futures regression logic before delivery. The anti - involution had no real impact on soda ash supply, and the over - capacity trend continued. High output and high inventory pressure increased since August, and the supply - demand pattern of strong supply and weak demand remains unchanged [40]. - Technical Analysis: Downward structure on the hourly chart. Today's intraday oscillation did not change the downward structure, with short - term pressure at 1320 [40]. - Strategy: Hold short positions on the hourly cycle [40]. Caustic Soda - Logic: Last week, supply - side output and开工 decreased due to autumn overhauls and transportation restrictions in Shandong during the parade. After the parade, the supply - side speculation may end. Demand - side exports are at a high level but with falling profits. Domestic non - aluminum demand increased in the early peak season, and alumina demand remained high. Overall, supply and demand are both strong, but supply pressure is greater, and the inventory is at a five - year high [42]. - Technical Analysis: Downward structure on the hourly chart. Today's intraday oscillation did not change the downward structure, with short - term pressure at 2625 [42]. - Strategy: Hold short positions on the hourly cycle, with a take - profit reference of 2625 [42].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The agricultural products sector shows a mixed performance, with significant drops in oil and fat prices, a decline in corn prices, and varied trends in other products such as eggs, apples, and others [1]. - Different factors influence each product, including supply - demand dynamics, external market news, and seasonal factors [1][2][3] 3. Summary by Related Catalogs 3.1 Agricultural Products Sector Overview - Oil and fat prices drop significantly, with palm oil leading the decline due to negative data in the Malaysian MPOB monthly report and the fall of US soybean oil. Corn prices decline further as new corn is listed, and egg price rebound lacks sustainability [1]. 3.2 Variety Strategy Tracking 3.2.1 Palm Oil - The main 2601 contract of palm oil drops significantly, affected by negative news of US soybean oil and the negative data in the Malaysian MPOB report. The inventory in Malaysia increased by 4.18% to 2.2 million tons in August. The strategy is to close long positions and lightly short - sell, with support at 9236 and resistance at 9300 [2]. 3.2.2 Soybean Oil - The main 2601 contract of soybean oil drops significantly, dragged down by the fall of US soybean oil and sufficient domestic supply. As of September 5, the inventory was 1.2388 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 14.66%. The strategy is to close long positions and lightly short - sell, with support at 8240 and resistance at 8300 [3]. 3.2.3 Eggs - The main 2511 contract of eggs drops significantly, due to high egg - laying hen inventory. The strategy is to close long positions and lightly short - sell, with support at 3000 and resistance at 3040 [5]. 3.2.4 Apples - The main 2601 contract of apples rebounds slightly after a sharp fall, supported by short - covering. The strategy is to hold short positions, with support at 8000 and resistance at 8166 [7]. 3.2.5 Red Dates - The main 2601 contract of red dates fluctuates narrowly. The strategy is to close short positions and conduct short - term trading, with support at 10910 and resistance at 11090 [9]. 3.2.6 Sugar - The main 2601 contract of Zheng sugar rebounds at a low level, driven by the rebound of the overseas market. The strategy is to hold short positions for now, with support at 5503 and resistance at 5560 [12]. 3.2.7 Corn - The main 2511 contract of corn drops continuously, pressured by the listing of new corn. The strategy is to hold light short positions, with support at 2188 and resistance at 2213 [13][15]. 3.2.8 Cotton - The main 2601 contract of cotton first declines and then rises, but the weakness remains. The strategy is to hold light short positions, with support at 13790 and resistance at 14000 [16][19]. 3.2.9 Live Pigs - The main 2511 contract of live pigs rebounds at a low level, but the weakness remains. The strategy is to hold short positions, with support at 13200 and resistance at 13400 [20]. 3.2.10 Soybean Meal - The main 2601 contract of soybean meal fluctuates downward. The strategy is short - term trading before the release of major report data, with support at 3050 and resistance at 3080 [22].

Report Industry Investment Rating - The report treats the energy and chemical industry weakly [1] Core Viewpoints - The energy and chemical industry is generally bearish, with different degrees of supply - demand imbalances and downward - facing fundamentals in multiple products [2][3][6] Summary by Product Crude Oil - Logic: OPEC+ starts the second - stage 165 - barrel - per - day resumption plan, with 137,000 barrels per day increase in October. The domestic seasonal demand slows down earlier than overseas, leading to SC crude oil breaking through support first. The fundamental drive is downward [3] - Technical Analysis: The daily - level has a medium - term downward structure, and the hourly - level has a short - term downward structure. There is an opportunity to short on the hourly level, with a stop - loss reference of 489 (11 contract) [3] Styrene (EB) - Logic: The weekly start - up rate has a slight increase, but there will be unplanned maintenance. The downstream profit is poor, and the port inventory continues to accumulate. After the autumn maintenance peak, there will be new device production pressure in September - October. The supply - demand pattern is weak [6] - Technical Analysis: The hourly - level short - term downward structure is being tested. The strategy is to hold the remaining short positions cautiously, with a final stop - profit at 7180 (10 contract) [6] Rubber - Logic: Seasonal factors are strong, but there is no weather speculation on the supply side. The import volume is expected to increase. The demand is neutral, with the semi - steel tire start - up rate dropping and the full - steel tire start - up rate remaining high [9] - Technical Analysis: The daily - level has a medium - term oscillating structure, and the hourly - level has an upward structure. The strategy is to wait and see [9] Synthetic Rubber (BR) - Logic: The supply - demand of butadiene styrene rubber has no major contradiction, but the cost of butadiene is bearish due to increased port inventory and new capacity release. The upstream crude oil also has downward pressure [14] - Technical Analysis: The daily - level has a medium - term oscillating/downward structure, and the hourly - level has a short - term oscillating structure. Hold 15 - minute short positions, with a stop - profit reference of 11960 [14] PX - Logic: The PX start - up rate increases, and the demand - side start - up rate drops. The previous inventory reduction has paused, and the short - term fundamentals are weak, with more attention on the cost - end crude oil [16][19] - Technical Analysis: The hourly - level short - term downward structure is being tested. Hold the remaining short positions [19] PTA - Logic: It lacks its own drive, and focuses on the cost - end crude oil collapse logic [20] - Technical Analysis: The hourly - level has a short - term downward structure. Hold short positions, with a stop - profit reference of 4700 [20] PP - Logic: The supply - side start - up rate increases, and there are new device productions. The demand is in the peak season, and the supply - demand pressure is not obvious. Focus on the cost - end collapse logic [23] - Technical Analysis: The hourly - level has a short - term downward structure. Hold short positions, and consider partial stop - profit if it breaks through 6990 (15 - minute short - cycle pressure) [23] Methanol - Logic: The domestic and overseas methanol start - up rates are high, the port inventory continues to accumulate to a 5 - year high, and the downstream demand is weak [27] - Technical Analysis: The daily - level has a medium - term downward/oscillating structure, and the hourly - level has a short - term downward structure. Hold the remaining short positions cautiously, with a final stop - profit at 2435 [27] PVC - Logic: The start - up rate is high, the inventory is at a historical high, and the demand is difficult to improve before the real - estate market bottoms out [28] - Technical Analysis: The daily - level has a medium - term upward structure, and the hourly - level has a short - term downward structure. Hold short positions, with a short - term pressure at 4965 [31] Ethylene Glycol (EG) - Logic: The port inventory is at a low level, but it is expected to enter a inventory - accumulation cycle. The short - term reality is strong, and the medium - term expectation is bearish [32] - Technical Analysis: The daily - level has a medium - term oscillating/downward structure, and the hourly - level has a downward structure. Transfer 15 - minute short positions to hourly positions, with a stop - loss reference of 4375 [32] Plastic - Logic: The PE start - up rate is stable, and the demand improvement is slow in the peak season. The fundamental drive is average [35] - Technical Analysis: The daily - level has a medium - term oscillating/downward structure, and the hourly - level has a downward structure. Hold 15 - minute short positions, with a stop - loss reference of 7305 [35] Soda Ash - Logic: After the anti - involution hype, it enters the spot - futures regression logic. The supply - demand pattern is supply - strong and demand - weak, with high inventory and production pressure [38] - Technical Analysis: The hourly - level has a downward structure. Hold short positions, with a short - term pressure at 1320 [38] Caustic Soda - Logic: The supply - side production and start - up rate decreased last week, but the supply pressure will return after the end of special events. The demand is strong but the supply pressure is greater, and the inventory is at a 5 - year high [40] - Technical Analysis: The hourly - level has a downward structure. Hold short positions, with a stop - profit reference of 2635 [40]

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints of the Report - Apple futures prices plummeted due to increased supply and production expectations, and the market outlook has weakened [1][2] - Egg futures prices rose strongly due to pre - Mid - Autumn Festival demand, but high egg - laying hen inventory may limit subsequent increases [1][3] - Cotton futures prices declined due to early new cotton listing and high - yield expectations, entering a downward trend [1][13] Summary by Relevant Catalogs I. Agricultural Products Sector Overview - Apple prices tumbled as early - maturing apples increased in volume and there were expectations of a new - season apple production increase, with short - sellers significantly increasing their positions [1] - Egg prices rose sharply, driven by pre - Mid - Autumn Festival demand and short - sellers closing a large number of positions. However, high egg - laying hen inventory may restrict future gains [1] - Cotton prices broke through support and declined due to early new cotton listing and high - yield expectations, entering a downward trend [1] II. Variety Strategy Tracking (1) Apple: Plummeted - The main 2601 contract of apple futures dropped sharply due to short - sellers significantly increasing their positions. Early Fuji apple trading volume increased, supply rose, and the overall commodity rate was high, disappointing previous expectations of a shortage of high - quality apples. New - season apple production is expected to be stable with a slight increase, increasing the pressure of industrial hedging [2] - The main 2601 contract of apple futures fell below the 20 - day moving average, with a MACD death cross, showing weak technical indicators. The recommended strategy is to hold a small short position, with support at 7973 and resistance at 8100 [2] (2) Egg: Rose Strongly - The main 2510 contract of egg futures rose strongly, driven by pre - festival demand and short - sellers closing a large number of positions. Near the Mid - Autumn Festival, food companies' stocking demand supported the market, and the inventory days of both the production and circulation links decreased. The number of old hens sold increased, potentially reducing inventory pressure [3] - The main 2510 contract of egg futures broke through the 20 - day moving average, with a MACD golden cross below the zero axis and an expanding red column, showing strong technical indicators. The recommended strategy is to hold a small long position, with support at 2978 and resistance at 3080 [3] (3) Palm Oil: Oscillated Upward - The main 2601 contract of palm oil futures oscillated upward with a narrow range. The market is waiting for the MPOB monthly palm oil supply - demand report. Malaysian palm oil production increased slightly in August, while exports improved significantly, and it is expected that the inventory increase at the end of August will be limited. In China, the inventory of the three major oils increased slightly last week, and the inventory of palm oil increased by 11.31% year - on - year. Demand from school openings in autumn and Mid - Autumn Festival stocking supported the oil market [5] - The main 2601 contract of palm oil futures oscillated above the moving - average system, with a shrinking MACD green column, showing strong technical indicators. The recommended strategy is to hold a small long position, with support at 9426 and resistance at 9550 [5] (4) Red Date: Oscillated Downward - The main 2601 contract of red date futures oscillated downward, with weak performance. Double - festival stocking did not show explosive growth, terminal demand was flat, downstream procurement was on - demand, the de - stocking speed of sample points decreased month - on - month, and inventory was still much higher than the same period last year. Traders generally adopted an on - demand procurement strategy, and the market trading atmosphere was cold [7] - The main 2601 contract of red date futures fell below the 40 - day moving average, with an expanding MACD green column, showing weak technical indicators. The recommended strategy is to hold a short position, with support at 10890 and resistance at 11185 [7] (5) Sugar: Continued to Fall - The main 2601 contract of Zhengzhou sugar futures fell again, pressured by increased domestic sugar imports. The sugarcane crop prospects in India and Thailand are good, Brazilian sugar mills have increased the sugar - making ratio, and global white sugar supply is becoming more abundant, with the outer - market raw sugar fluctuating at a low level. In the domestic market, the sales - to - production ratio in August was average, and there are still expectations of increased sugar imports. Customs data shows that China's sugar imports in July were the highest in the same period in the past 10 years, and expectations of increased imports and new - season production increases have weakened the futures price [9] - The main 2601 contract of sugar futures oscillated downward, with the price falling further below the moving - average system and a continuing MACD green column, showing weak technical indicators. The recommended strategy is to hold a small short position, with support at 5500 and resistance at 5532 [9] (6) Corn: Pulled Back and Adjusted - The main 2511 contract of corn futures pulled back and adjusted after reaching a phased high, as long - sellers took profits. Currently, it is the transition period between old and new crops, and the market focus is on the opening prices of new - season corn in various production areas. Before the large - scale listing of new corn, there is a pattern of tight supply and increasing demand, with low inventory at all levels. After the listing of new - season corn, market purchasing enthusiasm is expected to be high, which will support the corn price. The technical adjustment space of the corn futures price may be limited [11] - The main 2511 contract of Dalian corn futures adjusted at a high level, with long - sellers closing their positions and a continuing MACD red column, showing a technical adjustment. The recommended strategy is to close long positions and conduct short - term trading, with support at 2200 and resistance at 2234 [11] (7) Cotton: Continued to Fall - The main 2601 contract of cotton futures continued to expand its downward space, pressured by the listing of new cotton. Although the supply of old - crop cotton in China is tightening, the expectation of new - crop cotton production increase is strong, and the overall picking time is earlier than last year. The early listing and high - yield expectation of new cotton have suppressed the cotton futures price. During the "Golden September" peak season, the production and sales of textile enterprises have improved, and the pressure on finished - product inventory has eased. However, new orders have not improved significantly, and some enterprises still have inventory backlogs. Enterprises mainly purchase cotton as needed, failing to form a concentrated purchasing wave, and consumption recovery is still slow [13] - The main 2601 contract of cotton futures fell below the 40 - day moving average, with a MACD death cross and an expanding green column, showing weak technical indicators. The recommended strategy is to hold a small short position, with support at 13800 and resistance at 14000 [13] (8) Live Pig: Continued to Fall - The main 2511 contract of live pig futures continued to fall, pressured by increased supply from slaughter. The live pig production capacity is in the concentrated realization stage in September, and the inventory of market - suitable standard pigs and medium - large pigs may further increase, with great pressure from oversupply. The stock of breeding sows still exceeds the normal level. Data from the Ministry of Agriculture and Rural Affairs shows that the inventory of breeding sows at the end of July 2025 was 40.42 million, reaching 103.6% of the normal level. The planned slaughter volume of large - scale pig enterprises in September increased month - on - month, the supply of market - suitable pigs is sufficient, the risk of pig diseases in some areas has increased, and there is a phenomenon of early slaughter. The prices of medium - large pigs are weak, and the sentiment of weight - reducing slaughter in the social and group pig enterprises has strengthened. High temperatures continue in southern sales areas, the sales of白条 are not smooth, and the improvement of consumption demand is weak, pressuring the pig price [15] - The main 2511 contract of live pig futures fell again and closed with a negative candle, with the price falling further below the moving - average system and an expanding MACD green column, showing weak technical indicators. The recommended strategy is to hold a small short position, with support at 13145 and resistance at 13300 [15] (9) Soybean Meal: Narrowly Oscillated - The main 2601 contract of soybean meal futures narrowly oscillated and closed with a small negative candle. The market is waiting for the USDA monthly soybean supply - demand report. Currently, the crushing volume of domestic oil mills remains at a high level of tens of millions of tons, and the inventory pressure of soybean meal is significant. Under high inventory, oil mills have increased the pressure to urge提货. Data from China Grain and Oil Business Network shows that as of the end of the 36th week, the domestic soybean meal inventory was 1.16 million tons, a month - on - month increase of 9.09%. High inventory has restricted the increase of soybean meal futures prices, and the market has pulled back [17] - The main 2601 contract of soybean meal futures oscillated and closed with a negative candle, with a narrow range. The recommended strategy is short - term trading, with support at 3058 and resistance at 3080 [17] (10) Soybean Oil: Slightly Closed with a Negative Candle - The main 2601 contract of soybean oil futures slightly fell and oscillated and adjusted. The crushing volume of domestic oil mills remains at a level of tens of millions of tons, the supply of soybean oil has increased, and the inventory remains high. As of September 5, the soybean oil inventory was 1.2388 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 14.66%. However, with the approaching of the Mid - Autumn Festival and National Day, the stocking demand for soybean oil has increased, supporting the soybean oil price [19] - The main 2601 contract of soybean oil futures slightly adjusted, with the price fluctuating near the short - term moving average and a shrinking MACD green column, showing slightly strong technical indicators. The recommended strategy is to hold a small long position, with support at 8382 and resistance at 8460 [19]