1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Jiao coal: Oscillating weakly in the short - term [1] - Coke: Oscillating in the short - term [1] 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - After the holiday, the domestic market's risk appetite is expected to rise due to the release of goodwill signals in tariff negotiations, and the decline caused by risk - aversion before the holiday is expected to be compensated [3]. - The coal - coke industry has different situations. For coking coal, the spot is under pressure, and the upstream inventory pressure is high. After the delivery game of the 05 contract ends, it will return to trading based on supply - demand expectations. For coke, the second round of spot price increase faces obstacles, but there is support for demand. In the context of the expected policy of reducing crude steel production this year, the steel industry's performance is expected to strengthen, which may drive the repair of the industrial chain's profits [4]. - It is recommended to continue holding long positions in J09 in the short - term [4]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Coking Coal Supply and Demand - The supply shows a narrow - range oscillation. The operating rate of 110 coal - washing plants is 61.9% (- 0.8), showing a slight decline. The demand continues to rise. The production rate of 230 independent coking enterprises is 73.41% (+ 0.42) [1]. Inventory - Upstream mines are accumulating inventory, with the refined coal inventory of 523 mines at 333.34 million tons (- 2.17) and the raw coal inventory at 516.78 million tons (+ 12.28). The refined coal inventory of coal - washing plants is 181.33 million tons (- 11.63). Downstream, the inventory of 247 steel mills is 784.23 million tons (+ 4.6), and the inventory of 230 coking enterprises is 829.86 million tons (+ 15.14). The port inventory is 337.38 million tons (- 11.54) [2]. Spot Price and Spread - The price of Mongolian 5 main coking coal is 1040 yuan/ton (- 0), and the price of main coking coal produced in Shanxi at Jingtang Port is 1380 yuan/ton (- 0). The September contract is reported at 956 yuan/ton (- 6.5). The basis is 104 yuan/ton (+ 6.5), and the 5 - 9 month spread is - 63.5 yuan/ton (+ 15) [1]. Coke Supply and Demand - The supply increases, with the production rate of 230 independent coking enterprises at 73.41% (+ 0.42). The demand reaches its peak. The capacity utilization rate of 247 steel mills is 90.15% (- 0.04), and the daily average pig iron output is 2.4012 million tons (- 0.1) [2]. Inventory - The middle - and upper - reaches are accumulating inventory. The inventory of 230 coking enterprises is 67.96 million tons (+ 2.06), and the port inventory is 246.1 million tons (+ 13.01). The downstream is reducing inventory, with the inventory of 247 steel mills at 664.4 million tons (- 3.59) [2]. Spot Price, Spread and Profit - The price of quasi - first - grade coke at Tianjin Port is 1440 yuan/ton (+ 0). After the first - round price increase is implemented, there is an expectation of a second - round increase. The September contract is reported at 1590.5 yuan/ton (- 4.5). The basis is - 40.28 yuan/ton (+ 4.5), and the 5 - 9 month spread is 1.5 yuan/ton (+ 5.5) [2].

商品研究 | 走势评级: | 白糖 | 震荡 | | --- | --- | --- | | | 棉花- | 震荡 | 张秀峰—分析师 从业资格证号：F0289189 投资咨询证号：Z0011152 联系电话：0571-28132619 邮箱：zhangxiufeng@cindasc.com 期货研究报告 全球贸易前景不明，短期保持观望 [T报ab告le日_R期ep：ortDate] 2025-04-30 报告内容摘要: [Table_Summary] 白糖：在 2024/25 年度，除了云南以外，其他主要产区的糖厂已经开始收 榨，食糖的恢复性增产已成定局。五一等节假日的消费拉动了食糖需求，支 撑了糖价的稳定。国际方面，巴西在 2025/26 年度的制糖生产逐步展开，但 由于天气因素，其产糖量存在不确定性，预计短期内国际糖价将震荡走弱。 后续需关注国内甘蔗和甜菜的种植及生长情况，以及巴西的食糖生产进度。 软商品日报 走势评级： 白糖——震荡 棉花——震荡 棉花：由于美国对我国出口商品加征关税，中国的纺织品和服装出口出现 放缓，消费量减少了 20 万吨，降至 760 万吨，进口量也减少了 20 万吨， 降至 1 ...

张秀峰—分析师 从业资格证号：F0289189 投资咨询证号：Z0011152 联系电话：0571-28132619 邮箱：zhangxiufeng@cindasc.com 期货研究报告 全球贸易环境拖累棉价，短期保持观望 [T报ab告le日_R期ep：ortDate] 2025-04-29 报告内容摘要: [Table_Summary] 白糖：在 2024/25 年度，除了云南以外，其他主要产区的糖厂已经开始收 榨，食糖的恢复性增产已成定局。五一等节假日的消费拉动了食糖需求，支 撑了糖价的稳定。国际方面，巴西在 2025/26 年度的制糖生产逐步展开，但 由于天气因素，其产糖量存在不确定性，预计短期内国际糖价将震荡走弱。 后续需关注国内甘蔗和甜菜的种植及生长情况，以及巴西的食糖生产进度。 软商品日报 走势评级： 白糖——震荡 棉花——震荡 棉花：由于美国对我国出口商品加征关税，中国的纺织品和服装出口出现 放缓，消费量减少了 20 万吨，降至 760 万吨，进口量也减少了 20 万吨， 降至 150 万吨。近期，新疆大部分地区气温偏高，这对棉花的播种总体上是 有利的。 信达期货有限公司 CINDAFUTURE ...

不锈钢——观望 期货研究报告 商品研究 [Table_ReportType] 沪锌早报 走势评级： 镍——反弹后做空 [Table_ReportDate] 报告日期： 2025 年 4 月 29 日 报告内容摘要: [Table_S 宏观&行业消息： ummary]【格林美 2024 年实现净利润 10.2 亿元 镍金属产量增长 91%】格林美年报显示，2024 年，公司实现营业收入 332 亿元，同比增长 8.75%，创历史新高；实现归属于上市公司股东的净利润 10.20 亿元，同 比增长 9.19%。2024 年全年产出镍金属 51,677 吨，同比增长 91%，为 2024 年公司业绩稳定与增长奠定坚实基础。公司在印尼建成 15 万金吨/ 年镍资源产能，目前公司控股产能为 11 万金吨镍/年，参股产能为 4 万 金吨镍/年，在世界 MHP 镍产能领域排名前 3，镍资源竞争力与影响力进 入全球级。（格林美） 矿端：印尼于 26 日提高矿业特许权使用费，矿端价格坚挺，菲律宾聂矿 到岸价格出现反弹，季节性的镍矿转松尚未显现，如节奏过慢，将导致短 期矿端偏紧，对价格形成支撑，需作为风险点考虑。但正常情况下，季节 ...

报告内容摘要: [T报ab告le日_R期ep：ortDate] 2025-04-28 商品研究 | 走势评级: | 白糖 | 震荡 | | --- | --- | --- | | | 棉花- | 震荡 | 张秀峰—分析师 从业资格证号：F0289189 投资咨询证号：Z0011152 联系电话：0571-28132619 邮箱：zhangxiufeng@cindasc.com 期货研究报告 印度北方邦出口下降，原糖短期震荡为主 [Table_Summary] 白糖：在 2024/25 年度，除了云南以外，其他主要产区的糖厂已经开始收 榨，食糖的恢复性增产已成定局。五一等节假日的消费拉动了食糖需求，支 撑了糖价的稳定。国际方面，巴西在 2025/26 年度的制糖生产逐步展开，但 由于天气因素，其产糖量存在不确定性，预计短期内国际糖价将震荡走弱。 后续需关注国内甘蔗和甜菜的种植及生长情况，以及巴西的食糖生产进度。 软商品日报 走势评级： 白糖——震荡 棉花——震荡 棉花：由于美国对我国出口商品加征关税，中国的纺织品和服装出口出现 放缓，消费量减少了 20 万吨，降至 760 万吨，进口量也减少了 20 万吨， 降 ...

-------------------- 商品研究 -------------------- [Table_ReportType] 煤焦早报 ----------------- 期 走势评级： 焦炭——震荡 焦煤——震荡偏弱 刘开友—黑色研究员 从业资格证号：F03087895 投资咨询证号：Z0019509 联系电话：0571-28132535 邮箱：liukaiyou@cindasc.com 报告内容摘要: 报告日期： [Table_ReportDate] 2025 年 4 月 25 日 [Table_Summary] 相关资讯： 1. 中国 4 月 LPR 出炉，1 年期 LPR 为 3.1%，5 年期以上 LPR 为 3.6%，连续 6 个 月维持不变。 焦煤： 现货下调，期货趋弱。蒙 5#主焦煤报 1040 元/吨(-0)，京唐港山西产主焦煤报 1380(- 0)。九月合约报 956 元/吨(-6.5)。基差 104 元/吨(+6.5)，5-9 月差-63.5 元/吨（+15）。 供给窄幅震荡，需求继续上行。110 家洗煤厂开工率报 61.9%(-0.8)，小幅回落。230 家独立焦企生产率报 73 ...

商品研究 | 走势评级: | 白糖 | 震荡 | | --- | --- | --- | | | 棉花- | 震荡 | 张秀峰—分析师 从业资格证号：F0289189 投资咨询证号：Z0011152 联系电话：0571-28132619 邮箱：zhangxiufeng@cindasc.com 期货研究报告 巴西增产预期压制糖价，短期震荡为主 [T报ab告le日_R期ep：ortDate] 2025-04-25 报告内容摘要: [Table_Summary] 白糖：在 2024/25 年度，除了云南以外，其他主要产区的糖厂已经开始收 榨，食糖的恢复性增产已成定局。五一等节假日的消费拉动了食糖需求，支 撑了糖价的稳定。国际方面，巴西在 2025/26 年度的制糖生产逐步展开，但 由于天气因素，其产糖量存在不确定性，预计短期内国际糖价将震荡走弱。 后续需关注国内甘蔗和甜菜的种植及生长情况，以及巴西的食糖生产进度。 软商品日报 走势评级： 白糖——震荡 棉花——震荡 棉花：由于美国对我国出口商品加征关税，中国的纺织品和服装出口出现 放缓，消费量减少了 20 万吨，降至 760 万吨，进口量也减少了 20 万吨， 降至 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings - Zinc: Bearish outlook [1] - Nickel: Short - term rebound, then bearish; recommend selling after rebound [4][6] - Stainless steel: Hold and observe [4] 2. Core Views Zinc - Tariff impact is temporarily receding, supply is loosening in the short - term, and there is an overall surplus in the medium - and long - term [2] Nickel - Although there are still concerns about Sino - US trade, the market expects the US attitude to ease. The nickel price rebounds in the short - term but the fundamental surplus trend remains unchanged [6] Stainless steel - As nickel is on the US tariff list while stainless steel is not, the export demand for stainless steel may rise, forming a strong - weak relationship with nickel [6] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Zinc Macro & Industry News - 11 US states, following California, sued the Trump administration for abusing tariff policies, claiming the president has no right to impose arbitrary tariffs under the International Emergency Economic Powers Act [1] Mine End - Mining enterprise profits were affected by tariff policies. Zinc ingot price drops led to a significant contraction in profits, from over 6000 yuan/ton to about 4000 yuan/ton, but profits are still at a relatively medium - high level. TC prices did not fall, indicating no production cuts, and imports have significantly recovered [1] Smelting - TC prices at the smelting end have rebounded to 3400 - 3500 yuan/ton and remained stable. Integrated enterprise profits have shrunk but are still decent. Pure smelting enterprise static profits turned negative again, but with by - product revenues, overall profits are positive. The possibility of production cuts is low, and supply is loosening [2] Demand - The peak demand season is ending. Galvanized capacity utilization and production are low, and manufacturers' production enthusiasm is weak. Steel mill inventories are low, social inventories are rising, and manufacturers' profit margins are decent, suggesting a pessimistic outlook on terminal demand and a decline in zinc ingot demand [2] Nickel Macro & Industry News - In March 2025, China's nickel - iron imports were 101.3 tons, a 11.5% month - on - month and 60.0% year - on - year increase. Imports from Indonesia were 98.9 tons, up 10.5% month - on - month and 60.4% year - on - year. From January to March, total imports were 285.1 tons, a 26.2% year - on - year increase, with 278.3 tons from Indonesia, a 27.6% increase [4] - In March 2025, China's nickel ore imports were 153.52 tons, a 33.95% month - on - month increase and a 0.45% year - on - year decrease. Red clay nickel ore imports were 151.4 tons, and sulfide nickel ore imports were 2.12 tons. Imports from the Philippines were 120.57 tons, accounting for 78.53% of the total. From January to March, total imports were 359.33 tons, a 5.22% year - on - year decrease [5] Mine End - Indonesia plans to raise mining royalties in the second week of April, which may support prices. In the Philippines, the rainy season in the Surigao mining area continues, and nickel ore prices may rise slightly, but the tight supply situation will improve after April. There is no continuous upward momentum for prices [5] Smelting - China imports relatively little pure nickel, while domestic production has recovered rapidly. Although the total supply of domestic electrolytic nickel has decreased month - on - month, it remains at the highest level in the same period. The production cost of electrowon nickel reached 124,000 yuan/ton at the end of February. The upper pressure line can be determined by the cost of external procurement manufacturers and the critical point of downstream nickel sulfate, which provide demand support at about 134,000 yuan/ton and 137,000 yuan/ton respectively, both lower than before [6] Demand - As nickel is on the US tariff list and stainless steel is not, the export demand for stainless steel may rise, forming a strong - weak relationship with nickel. High nickel - iron prices lead to low profits for stainless steel manufacturers, which may reduce production and nickel demand [6]

商品研究 | 走势评级: | 白糖 | 震荡 | | --- | --- | --- | | | 棉花- | 震荡 | 张秀峰—分析师 从业资格证号：F0289189 投资咨询证号：Z0011152 联系电话：0571-28132619 邮箱：zhangxiufeng@cindasc.com 请务必阅读正文之后的免责条款 1 期货研究报告 广西干燥天气引发担忧，郑糖短期支撑较强 [T报ab告le日_R期ep：ortDate] 2025-04-24 报告内容摘要: [Table_Summary] 白糖：在 2024/25 年度，除了云南以外，其他主要产区的糖厂已经开始收 榨，食糖的恢复性增产已成定局。五一等节假日的消费拉动了食糖需求，支 撑了糖价的稳定。国际方面，巴西在 2025/26 年度的制糖生产逐步展开，但 由于天气因素，其产糖量存在不确定性，预计短期内国际糖价将震荡走弱。 后续需关注国内甘蔗和甜菜的种植及生长情况，以及巴西的食糖生产进度。 软商品日报 走势评级： 白糖——震荡 棉花——震荡 棉花：由于美国对我国出口商品加征关税，中国的纺织品和服装出口出现 放缓，消费量减少了 20 万吨，降至 760 万 ...

-------------------- 商品研究 -------------------- [Table_ReportType] 煤焦早报 ----------------- 期 走势评级： 焦炭——震荡 焦煤——震荡偏弱 刘开友—黑色研究员 从业资格证号：F03087895 投资咨询证号：Z0019509 联系电话：0571-28132535 邮箱：liukaiyou@cindasc.com 信达期货股份有限公司 CINDAFUTURESCO.LTD 杭州市萧山区钱江世纪城天人大厦19-20楼 邮编：311200 移仓加速，交割矛盾逐步化解 报告日期： [Table_ReportDate] 2025 年 4 月 23 日 上游去库，下游补库。523 家矿山精煤库存 333.34 万吨(-2.17)，原煤库存 516.78 （+12.28），洗煤厂精煤库存 181.33 万吨(-11.63)。247 家钢厂库存 784.23 万吨 （+4.6)，230 家焦企库存 829.86(+15.14)。港口库存 337.38 万吨(-11.54)。 焦炭： 报告内容摘要: [Table_Summary] 相关资讯： ...