单击此处编辑母版标题样式 • 编辑母版文本样式 • 第二级 −需求旺季已过 供应仍有增量 信达期货沪锌周报 始于信 达于行 诚信 融合 创新 卓越 Integrity Integration Innovation Excellence 信 达 期 货 研 究 所 ： 楼 家 豪 交 易 咨 询 从 业 证 书 号 ： Z 0 0 1 8 4 2 4 日 期 ： 2025 年 5 月 1 1 日 • 第三级 • 第四级 • 第五级 2025/5/9 1 请务必阅读正文后的免责条款 1 供需变化 02 └ ̚ 01 周度市场 └ ̚ 03 库存比价 └ ̚ • 编辑母版文本样式 • 第二级 • 第三级 • 第四级 • 第五级 2025/5/9 2 请务必阅读正文后的免责条款 2 单击此处编辑母版标题样式 • 编辑母版文本样式 • 第五级 周度市场 单击此处编辑母版标题样式 CONTENTS 目录 01 观点与建议 02 市场数据 • 第二级 • 第三级 • 第四级 2025/5/9 3 请务必阅读正文后的免责条款 3 观点与建议 单击此处编辑母版标题样式 主要观点： 请务必阅读正文后的免责条款 4 2025/5/ ...

Report Industry Investment Ratings - Sugar: Oscillation [1] - Cotton: Oscillation [1] Core Views - In the 2024/25 season, sugar mills in major producing areas except Yunnan have completed the sugar - crushing process, and a restorative increase in sugar production is certain. Holiday consumption during May Day supported stable sugar prices. Internationally, Brazil's sugar production in the 2025/26 season is gradually starting, but due to weather factors, its sugar output is uncertain. It is expected that international sugar prices will oscillate and weaken in the short term. Attention should be paid to the planting and growth of domestic sugarcane and beets, as well as Brazil's sugar production progress [1] - Due to the US tariff hikes on Chinese exports, China's textile and clothing exports have slowed down. Consumption has decreased by 200,000 tons to 760,000 tons, and imports have also decreased by 200,000 tons to 150,000 tons. Recently, high temperatures in most parts of Xinjiang are generally beneficial for cotton sowing [1] Summary by Related Catalogs Data Overview - **External Quotes**: On May 7 - 8, 2025, the price of US sugar rose from $17.14 to $17.52, a 2.22% increase; the price of US cotton fell from $67.4 to $66.73, a 0.99% decrease [3] - **Spot Prices**: From May 7 - 8, 2025, the price of sugar in Nanning decreased from 6,160 yuan to 6,135 yuan, a 0.41% decrease; in Kunming, it decreased from 6,015 yuan to 5,985 yuan, a 0.50% decrease. The cotton index 328 rose by 0.25%, and the price of cotton in Xinjiang remained unchanged [3] - **Spread Overview**: From May 7 - 8, 2025, spreads such as SR01 - 05, SR05 - 09, and CF01 - 05 showed different degrees of change, with SR05 - 09 having the largest increase of 17.68%, and SR09 - 01 having the largest decrease of 10.14% [3] - **Import Prices**: From May 7 - 8, 2025, the price of cotton cotlookA remained unchanged at 79.45 [3] - **Profit Margins**: From May 7 - 8, 2025, the sugar import profit remained unchanged at 1,401.5 [3] - **Options**: The implied volatility of SR509C5800 is 0.1023, and the historical volatility of its futures underlying SR509 is 9.18; the implied volatility of CF509C12800 is 0.1335, and the historical volatility of its futures underlying CF509 is 11.77 [3] - **Warehouse Receipts**: From May 7 - 8, 2025, the number of sugar warehouse receipts increased from 30,301 to 30,346, a 0.15% increase; the number of cotton warehouse receipts increased from 11,172 to 11,269, an 0.87% increase [3] Company Information - CINDA Futures Co., Ltd. is a large - scale domestic futures company with a registered capital of 600 million yuan, wholly - owned by CINDA Securities Co., Ltd. It has memberships in multiple futures exchanges [9]

Report Industry Investment Rating - The investment rating for the stock index is "Oscillation" [1] Core Viewpoints - Recent macro information is in line with expectations. US employment data is better than expected, and the Fed's dovish stance has led to a general rise in European and US stock indices. Sino-US trade relations show signs of phased improvement, reducing international risk aversion during the holiday. The A-share index had a slight pre-holiday correction, with the decline weaker than expected, indicating continued trading enthusiasm. The economic data and earnings reports in April suggest that the index's profit cycle is still at the bottoming stage. With the implementation of policy expectations, the market sentiment will enter a window period. Therefore, a sideways market for the index in May is the baseline expectation, and unilateral operations are not cost-effective at present. It is recommended to wait for a pullback before going long. In terms of style, the current market speculative sentiment is strong, and there may be reserve requirement ratio and interest rate cuts in the second quarter. The small-cap style is expected to become active again in May, and the export chains affected by tariffs may rebound after the bad news is exhausted. It is recommended to exit the IF-IM combination at high levels after the May Day holiday [3] Summary by Related Catalogs Macro Stock Market Information - The central bank announced ten policy measures, including a 0.5 percentage point cut in the reserve requirement ratio, a 0.1 percentage point cut in policy interest rates, a 0.25 percentage point cut in the interest rates of structural monetary policy tools and provident fund loans, and the establishment of a 500 billion yuan "Service Consumption and Elderly Care Re-lending" [4] - The Fed kept the federal funds rate target range unchanged at 4.25%-4.5%. The FOMC statement said that the uncertainty of the economic outlook has further increased, and the risks of rising unemployment and inflation have both increased [4] Stock Index盘面 Review Disk Tracking - In the previous trading session, the A-share market opened higher and closed lower. Among the four major indices, the Shanghai 50 rose 0.87%, the CSI 300 rose 0.61%, the CSI 500 rose 0.17%, and the CSI 1000 rose 0.14%. In terms of sectors, aerospace and defense (+4.45%) and land transportation (+2.07%) led the gains, while office supplies (-1.94%) and biotechnology (-0.93%) lagged. More than 3,200 stocks rose, and 101 stocks hit the daily limit, indicating a positive profit-making effect [4] Technical Tracking - After a gap-down decline in early April, the technical indicators of the index on the daily and weekly levels turned bearish. The short-term market is still in a stage of oversold rebound, and attention should be paid to the upper edge of the gap as the key resistance level [4] Fund Flow - The trading volume of the A-share market increased slightly, reaching around 1.5 trillion yuan. Market sentiment remained cautious, and the sustainability of the continuous upward movement of the market was not strong [4]

Report Industry Investment Rating - The investment rating for both sugar and cotton is "Oscillation" [1] Core Viewpoints - In the 2024/25 season, sugar mills in major producing areas except Yunnan have completed the sugar - crushing process, and a restorative increase in sugar production is certain. Holiday consumption during festivals like May Day has boosted sugar demand and supported stable sugar prices. Internationally, Brazil's sugar production for the 2025/26 season is gradually ramping up, but due to weather factors, sugar production volume is uncertain. It is expected that international sugar prices will oscillate and weaken in the short term. Attention should be paid to the planting and growth of domestic sugarcane and beets, as well as Brazil's sugar production progress [1] - Due to the US tariff hikes on Chinese exports, China's textile and clothing exports have slowed down. Cotton consumption has decreased by 200,000 tons to 7.6 million tons, and imports have also decreased by 200,000 tons to 1.5 million tons. Recently, high temperatures in most parts of Xinjiang are generally beneficial for cotton sowing [1] Data Summary Price and Spread Data - **Foreign Market Quotes**: On May 6 - 7, 2025, the price of US sugar decreased from $17.41 to $17.14, a decline of 1.55%; the price of US cotton decreased from $67.82 to $67.4, a decline of 0.62% [3] - **Spot Prices**: From May 6 - 7, 2025, the price of sugar in Nanning decreased from 6,170 yuan to 6,160 yuan, a decline of 0.16%; in Kunming, it decreased from 6,020 yuan to 6,015 yuan, a decline of 0.08%. The cotton index 328 decreased from 3,281 to 3,280, a decline of 0.09%; the price of cotton in Xinjiang decreased from 13,950 yuan to 13,850 yuan, a decline of 0.72% [3] - **Spread Data**: From May 6 - 7, 2025, various sugar and cotton spreads showed different degrees of decline, while some sugar basis spreads showed an increase and some showed a decrease [3] Import and Profit Data - **Import Prices**: The price of cotton cotlookA remained at $80 from May 6 - 7, 2025, with a 0.00% change [3] - **Profit Margins**: The sugar import profit remained at 1,401.5 from May 6 - 7, 2025, with a 0.00% change [3] Option and Warehouse Receipt Data - **Options**: The implied volatility of SR509C5900 is 0.1029, and the historical volatility of its futures underlying SR509 is 8.99; the implied volatility of SR509P5900 is 0.0958. The implied volatility of CF509C12800 is 0.1311, and the historical volatility of its futures underlying CF509 is 11.9; the implied volatility of CF509P12800 is 0.1314 [3] - **Warehouse Receipts**: From May 6 - 7, 2025, the number of sugar warehouse receipts increased from 28,629 to 30,301, a growth of 5.84%; the number of cotton warehouse receipts increased from 11,116 to 11,172, a growth of 0.50% [3] Company Information - Xinda Futures Co., Ltd. is a limited - liability company specializing in domestic futures business. It is wholly - owned by Xinda Securities Co., Ltd., with a registered capital of 600 million yuan. It is one of the large - scale, standardized, and high - reputation futures companies in China [9] - The company is a full - settlement member of the China Financial Futures Exchange, a full - fledged member of the Shanghai Futures Exchange, Zhengzhou Commodity Exchange, and Dalian Commodity Exchange, a member of the Shanghai International Energy Exchange and Guangzhou Futures Exchange, an observer of the China Securities Association, and an observer member of the Asset Management Association of China [9]

Report 1: Zinc Futures Research Report 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Zinc - Bearish outlook [1] 2. Core View - Tariff impact is temporarily receding, short - term supply is changing from tight to loose, and in the medium - to - long - term, there is an overall surplus, so it should be viewed bearishly [3] 3. Summary by Directory Macro & Industry News - Due to the trade war, Teck is considering other export options for its US concentrates. After China imposed a new round of retaliatory tariffs on US goods, Teck's lead - zinc concentrates from the Red Dog mine in Alaska became a "victim" of the Sino - US trade conflict. The company's business team is evaluating various solutions [1] Supply - Mining enterprise profits are affected by tariff policies, with single - ton profits shrinking from over 6,000 to around 4,000. However, TC prices have not declined, indicating no production cuts at the mine end. The supply side is generally becoming looser, and the possibility of production cuts for both pure smelting and integrated enterprises is extremely low [2] Demand - The peak demand season of "Golden March and Silver April" is coming to an end. Galvanizing shows low capacity utilization and production, and manufacturers' production enthusiasm is low. The demand for zinc ingots is expected to decline in the short term. In the die - casting alloy and zinc oxide markets, demand is weak [3] Conclusion - Tariff impact is temporarily receding, short - term supply is changing from tight to loose, and in the medium - to - long - term, there is an overall surplus, so it should be viewed bearishly [3] Operation Suggestion - Wait for an opportunity to short; if there is no rebound, the downside space is limited [4] Report 2: Nickel and Stainless Steel Futures Research Report 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Nickel - Short after a rebound; Stainless steel - Hold [5] 2. Core View - Although the Sino - US trade concerns remain, market sentiment has eased. Nickel prices have rebounded in the short term, but the fundamental trend of surplus remains unchanged. The support from the mine end is not sustainable [6] 3. Summary by Directory Macro & Industry News - In the first week of May 2025, the price of 1.6% grade nickel ore (CIF) increased by $1.1 per metric ton, while the price of 1.2% grade nickel ore (CIF) remained stable. Some processed product prices declined [5] Supply - Indonesia has increased mining royalties, and the price at the mine end is firm. The probability of the mine end becoming looser is high. The profit of ferronickel produced from medium - grade nickel ore is close to the break - even point, while the profit from low - grade nickel ore is still substantial. The total supply of domestic electrolytic nickel remains at a high level, and the cost of electrowinning nickel is expected to decline [5] Demand - In the process of producing nickel sulfate from nickel beans, the nickel cost is about 127,000 yuan, which is consistent with the technical pressure level. The demand support from downstream nickel sulfate cost is about 134,000 yuan/ton, and the profit critical point for external - purchasing manufacturers is about 137,000 yuan/ton. The possibility of stainless steel production cuts is small [6] Conclusion - Although the Sino - US trade concerns remain, market sentiment has eased. Nickel prices have rebounded in the short term, but the fundamental trend of surplus remains unchanged. The support from the mine end is not sustainable [6] Operation Suggestion - Short [7]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - The trend rating for coke is "sideways", and for coking coal is "sideways with a weak bias" [1] 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - Multiple factors boost market sentiment, and coal and coke are expected to rebound from oversold levels. After the holiday, with the release of positive signals in tariff negotiations, risk appetite is expected to recover, and the decline caused by risk - aversion before the holiday is likely to be compensated [4] - There are many significant events in the market recently, mostly positive news such as Sino - US negotiations, crude steel reduction, and a package of financial policies. It is recommended to continue holding long positions in J09 in the short term [5] 3. Summaries by Relevant Catalogs Coking Coal Market Conditions - Spot prices are weakly stable, while futures prices are declining. The price of Mongolian 5 main coking coal is reported at 1,040 yuan/ton (unchanged), and the main coking coal produced in Shanxi at Jingtang Port is reported at 1,380 yuan/ton (unchanged). The September contract is reported at 911.5 yuan/ton, down 19 yuan. The basis is 138.5 yuan/ton, up 19 yuan, and the September - January spread is - 48 yuan/ton, up 1.5 yuan [1] Supply and Demand - Supply remains flat, while demand continues to rise. The operating rate of 110 coal washing plants is reported at 62.97%, basically unchanged. The production rate of 230 independent coking enterprises is reported at 75.43%, up 0.16% [2] Inventory - Upstream inventory accumulates, while downstream inventory decreases. The refined coal inventory of 523 mines is 358.52 million tons, up 3.92 million tons, and the raw coal inventory is 558.03 million tons, up 27.58 million tons. The refined coal inventory of coal washing plants is 193.89 million tons, up 12.21 million tons. The inventory of 247 steel mills is 784.79 million tons, up 2.31 million tons, and the inventory of 230 coking enterprises is 810.28 million tons, down 9.55 million tons. The port inventory is 311.78 million tons, down 13.01 million tons [2] Coke Market Conditions - Spot prices are temporarily stable, while futures prices are declining. The price of quasi - first - grade coke at Tianjin Port is reported at 1,440 yuan/ton (unchanged), and the second round of price increase has encountered resistance and been postponed. The September contract is reported at 1,502 yuan/ton, down 36 yuan. The basis is 48.22 yuan/ton, up 36 yuan, and the September - January spread is - 48.5 yuan/ton, down 10.5 yuan [3] Supply and Demand - Both supply and demand are increasing, and demand is rising beyond expectations. The production rate of 230 independent coking enterprises is reported at 75.43%, continuing to recover. The capacity utilization rate of 247 steel mills is reported at 92%, up 0.4%, and the daily average pig iron output is 245.42 million tons, up 1.07 million tons [3] Inventory - Mid - and upstream inventory decreases, while downstream inventory increases. The inventory of 230 coking enterprises is 67.06 million tons, down 1.76 million tons. The inventory of 247 steel mills is 675.22 million tons, up 8.87 million tons. The port inventory is 238.12 million tons, down 5.46 million tons [3] Strategy Recommendations - Pay attention to whether there are any unexpected statements regarding supporting the financing of the real estate industry during the press conference of multiple department heads on financial policies at 9:00 today. If the market shows a strong upward trend during the conference, it may be an important turning point for market sentiment recently [4] - In the short term, continue holding long positions in J09. However, pay attention to the sustainability of the short - term recovery in apparent demand in May, which is a traditional off - season. Under the expectation of the crude steel reduction policy this year, the subsequent performance of steel products is expected to strengthen, which may drive the repair of industrial chain profits [5]

期货研究报告 商品研究 [Table_ReportType] 工业硅/多晶硅早报 走势评级： 工业硅：偏弱 多晶硅：震荡 李艳婷—有色分析师 从业资格证号：F03091846 投资咨询证号：Z0020513 联系电话：0571-28132578 邮箱：liyanting@cindasc.com 徐浩然—有色分析师 从业资格证号：F03120971 联系电话：0571-28132578 邮箱：xuhaoran@cindasc.com 信达期货有限公司 CINDAFUTURESCO.LTD 杭州市萧山区钱江世纪城天人大厦19-20楼 邮编：311200 工业硅持续探底，关注西南地区复产情况 [Table_ReportDate] 报告日期： 2025 年 5 月 7 日 报告内容摘要: ◆相关咨询： 商务部：中方决定同意与美方进行接触 ◆基本面： 工业硅： 现货价格方面，华东不通氧 553#硅在 9100-9200 元/吨，较上一 交易日跌 100 元/吨。供给方面：4 月份工业硅产量下探到 30.1 万吨，较 3 月下降 4.1 万吨，新疆地区减产 5 万吨左右，而西南地区丰水期即将来临， 四川地区复产至 1w ...

商品研究 | 走势评级: | 白糖 | 震荡 | | --- | --- | --- | | | 棉花- | 震荡 | 张秀峰—分析师 从业资格证号：F0289189 投资咨询证号：Z0011152 联系电话：0571-28132619 邮箱：zhangxiufeng@cindasc.com 期货研究报告 美棉假期先弱后强，短期保持观望 [T报ab告le日_R期ep：ortDate] 2025-05-06 报告内容摘要: [Table_Summary] 白糖：在 2024/25 年度，除了云南以外，其他主要产区的糖厂已经开始收 榨，食糖的恢复性增产已成定局。五一等节假日的消费拉动了食糖需求，支 撑了糖价的稳定。国际方面，巴西在 2025/26 年度的制糖生产逐步展开，但 由于天气因素，其产糖量存在不确定性，预计短期内国际糖价将震荡走弱。 后续需关注国内甘蔗和甜菜的种植及生长情况，以及巴西的食糖生产进度。 软商品日报 走势评级： 白糖——震荡 棉花——震荡 棉花：由于美国对我国出口商品加征关税，中国的纺织品和服装出口出现 放缓，消费量减少了 20 万吨，降至 760 万吨，进口量也减少了 20 万吨， 降至 1 ...

期货研究报告 商品研究 [Table_ReportType] 沪锌早报 走势评级： 镍——反弹后做空 不锈钢——观望 楼家豪 从业资格证号：F3080463 投资咨询证号：Z0018424 联系电话：0571-28132615 邮箱：loujiahao@cindasc.com 信达期货有限公司 CINDAFUTURESCO.LTD 杭州市萧山区钱江世纪城天人大厦19-20楼 邮编：311200 压力位依旧有效 关注区间回落 [Table_ReportDate] 报告日期： 2025 年 5 月 6 日 报告内容摘要: [Table_S 宏观&行业消息： ummary]【印尼镍价指数（INPI）四月底发布：镍价再度下跌 2】 雅加达讯，印尼镍矿商协会（APNI）于 4 月 28 日（星期一）发布最新印 尼镍价指数（INPI）。镍生铁（NPI），采用离岸价（FOB）计算的镍生铁本 周报价为每吨 116.6 美元（均价同），较此前 122.6 美元/吨（中间价 122.5 美元）下跌 1.6%。高冰镍，本周 FOB 高冰镍价格为每吨 13,355 美 元（中间价同），低于前一周的 13,471 美元。混合氢氧化镍钴 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Jiao coal: Oscillating weakly in the short - term [1] - Coke: Oscillating in the short - term [1] 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - After the holiday, the domestic market's risk appetite is expected to rise due to the release of goodwill signals in tariff negotiations, and the decline caused by risk - aversion before the holiday is expected to be compensated [3]. - The coal - coke industry has different situations. For coking coal, the spot is under pressure, and the upstream inventory pressure is high. After the delivery game of the 05 contract ends, it will return to trading based on supply - demand expectations. For coke, the second round of spot price increase faces obstacles, but there is support for demand. In the context of the expected policy of reducing crude steel production this year, the steel industry's performance is expected to strengthen, which may drive the repair of the industrial chain's profits [4]. - It is recommended to continue holding long positions in J09 in the short - term [4]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Coking Coal Supply and Demand - The supply shows a narrow - range oscillation. The operating rate of 110 coal - washing plants is 61.9% (- 0.8), showing a slight decline. The demand continues to rise. The production rate of 230 independent coking enterprises is 73.41% (+ 0.42) [1]. Inventory - Upstream mines are accumulating inventory, with the refined coal inventory of 523 mines at 333.34 million tons (- 2.17) and the raw coal inventory at 516.78 million tons (+ 12.28). The refined coal inventory of coal - washing plants is 181.33 million tons (- 11.63). Downstream, the inventory of 247 steel mills is 784.23 million tons (+ 4.6), and the inventory of 230 coking enterprises is 829.86 million tons (+ 15.14). The port inventory is 337.38 million tons (- 11.54) [2]. Spot Price and Spread - The price of Mongolian 5 main coking coal is 1040 yuan/ton (- 0), and the price of main coking coal produced in Shanxi at Jingtang Port is 1380 yuan/ton (- 0). The September contract is reported at 956 yuan/ton (- 6.5). The basis is 104 yuan/ton (+ 6.5), and the 5 - 9 month spread is - 63.5 yuan/ton (+ 15) [1]. Coke Supply and Demand - The supply increases, with the production rate of 230 independent coking enterprises at 73.41% (+ 0.42). The demand reaches its peak. The capacity utilization rate of 247 steel mills is 90.15% (- 0.04), and the daily average pig iron output is 2.4012 million tons (- 0.1) [2]. Inventory - The middle - and upper - reaches are accumulating inventory. The inventory of 230 coking enterprises is 67.96 million tons (+ 2.06), and the port inventory is 246.1 million tons (+ 13.01). The downstream is reducing inventory, with the inventory of 247 steel mills at 664.4 million tons (- 3.59) [2]. Spot Price, Spread and Profit - The price of quasi - first - grade coke at Tianjin Port is 1440 yuan/ton (+ 0). After the first - round price increase is implemented, there is an expectation of a second - round increase. The September contract is reported at 1590.5 yuan/ton (- 4.5). The basis is - 40.28 yuan/ton (+ 4.5), and the 5 - 9 month spread is 1.5 yuan/ton (+ 5.5) [2].