废钢早报 研究中心黑色团队 2025/10/27 | 日期 | 华东 | 华北 | 中部 | 华南 | 东北 | 西南 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 2025/10/20 | 2226 | 2298 | 2051 | 2220 | 2258 | 2135 | | 2025/10/21 | 2227 | 2300 | 2051 | 2226 | 2256 | 2134 | | 2025/10/22 | 2227 | 2302 | 2053 | 2228 | 2250 | 2135 | | 2025/10/23 | 2228 | 2304 | 2053 | 2231 | 2250 | 2134 | | 2025/10/24 | 2228 | 2304 | 2053 | 2230 | 2250 | 2131 | | 环比 | 0 | 0 | 0 | -1 | 0 | -3 | 免责声明: 以上内容所依据的信息均来源于交易所、媒体及资讯公司等发布的公开资料或通过合法授权渠道向发布人取得的资讯，我们力求分析及建议内 容的客观、公正，研究方法专业审慎，分析 ...

Group 1: Overnight Market Information - The soybean planting rate in Mato Grosso for the 2025/26 season has reached 60.05%, an increase of 16.48 percentage points from last week, higher than the five - year average of 57.27% and the same period last year of 55.73% [1] Group 2: Spot Prices | Date | Soybean Meal (Jiangsu) | Rapeseed Meal (Guangdong) | Soybean Oil (Jiangsu) | Palm Oil (Guangzhou) | Rapeseed Oil (Jiangsu) | | ---- | ---- | ---- | ---- | ---- | ---- | | 2025/10/20 | 2870 | 2480 | 8540 | - | 10230 | | 2025/10/21 | 2870 | 2450 | 8550 | 9200 | 10210 | | 2025/10/22 | 2860 | 2440 | 8480 | 9070 | 10160 | | 2025/10/23 | 2910 | 2470 | 8410 | 9030 | 10060 | | 2025/10/24 | 2910 | 2460 | 8440 | 9020 | 10090 | [1]

Group 1: Report Summary - This is an iron ore morning report from the Black Team of the Research Center dated October 27, 2025, presenting the latest prices, daily and weekly changes, and other data for various iron ore varieties and exchange contracts [1] Group 2: Spot Market Data Australian Mainstream Iron Ore - Newman powder: price 775, daily change -5, weekly change 1, converted to futures price 829.2, import profit -28.20 [1] - PB powder: price 778, daily change -5, weekly change 0, converted to futures price 825.0, import profit -23.98 [1] - Macarthur powder: price 775, daily change -5, weekly change 0, converted to futures price 846.5, import profit 2.36 [1] - Jinbuba powder: price 746, daily change -5, weekly change -2, converted to futures price 838.8, import profit 6.77 [1] - Mixed powder: price 747, daily change -3, weekly change 2, converted to futures price 877.6, import profit 2.53 [1] - Super Special powder: price 702, daily change -3, weekly change -3, converted to futures price 918.9, import profit 3.66 [1] - Carajás fines: price 901, daily change -6, weekly change 0, converted to futures price 847.0, import profit -10.17 [1] Brazilian Mainstream Iron Ore - Brazilian blend: price 815, daily change -1, weekly change 5, converted to futures price 829.8, import profit -11.37 [1] - IOC6: price 779, daily change -5, weekly change 0, converted to futures price 854.5 [1] - SSFG: price 784, daily change -5, weekly change 0 [1] Other Iron Ore - Ukrainian concentrate: price 900, daily change -5, weekly change 0, converted to futures price 987.0 [1] - 61% Indian fines: price 735, daily change -5, weekly change -2 [1] - Karara concentrate: price 900, daily change -5, weekly change 0, converted to futures price 922.7 [1] - Roy Hill fines: price 765, daily change -5, weekly change 0, converted to futures price 842.1, import profit 3.78 [1] - KUMBA fines: price 837, daily change -5, weekly change 0, converted to futures price 828.1 [1] - 57% Indian fines: price 637, daily change -3, weekly change -1 [1] - Atlas fines: price 742, daily change -3, weekly change 2 [1] Domestic Iron Ore - Tangshan iron concentrate: price 1021, daily change 0, weekly change 8, converted to futures price 908.0 [1] Group 3: Exchange Contract Data Dalian Commodity Exchange - i2601: price 771.0, daily change -6.0, weekly change 0.0, monthly spread -41.0 [1] - i2605: price 750.5, daily change -5.5, weekly change 0.5, monthly spread 20.5 [1] - i2609: price 730.0, daily change -5.0, weekly change 1.5, monthly spread 20.5 [1] Singapore Exchange - FE01: price 101.20, daily change 0.25, weekly change -0.35, monthly spread -4.12 [1] - FE05: price 99.27, daily change 0.32, weekly change -0.01, monthly spread 1.93 [1] - FE09: price 97.08, daily change 0.20, weekly change 0.02, monthly spread 2.19 [1]

最新 日变化 周变化 月变化 年变化 最新 日变化 周变化 月变化 年变化 秦皇岛5500 769.0 2.0 25.0 61.0 -86.0 25省终端可用天数 24.0 0.1 4.1 3.1 6.4 秦皇岛5000 678.0 1.0 24.0 60.0 -77.0 25省终端供煤 538.0 4.1 -70.6 -102.1 -84.9 广州港5500 805.0 0.0 20.0 40.0 -105.0 北方港库存 2227.0 -12.0 12.0 174.0 -119.3 鄂尔多斯5500 560.0 0.0 40.0 70.0 -70.0 北方锚地船舶 61.0 -23.0 -27.0 -68.0 -11.0 大同5500 610.0 0.0 40.0 60.0 -100.0 北方港调入量 156.8 7.8 9.9 -1.5 -26.8 榆林6000 682.0 0.0 30.0 40.0 -138.0 北方港吞吐量 179.7 22.5 39.6 8.2 6.1 榆林6200 710.0 0.0 30.0 40.0 -138.0 CBCFI海运指数 927.3 -22.1 -21.0 25 ...

玻璃纯碱早报 研究中心能化团队 | | | | | | | | | 研究中心能化团队 | | | 2025/10/27 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | | | | | 玻 璃 | | | | | | | | | 2025/10/17 | 2025/10/23 | | 2025/10/24 周度变化 日度变化 | | | 2025/10/17 | 2025/10/23 | | 2025/10/24 周度变化 日度变化 | | | 沙河安全5mm 大 板 | 1173.0 | 1130.0 | 1121.0 | -52.0 | -9.0 | F G 0 5合约 | 1231.0 | 1256.0 | 1236.0 | 5.0 | -20.0 | | 沙河长城 5 m m大板 | 1156.0 | 1113.0 | 1104.0 | -52.0 | -9.0 | F G 0 1合约 | 1095.0 | 1108.0 | 1092.0 | -3.0 | -16.0 | | 沙河5 m m大 ...

Group 1: Volatility Index Explanation - The implied volatility index of financial options reflects the 30 - day implied volatility trend as of the previous trading day. The implied volatility index of commodity options is obtained by weighting the implied volatilities of the two - strike options above and below the at - the - money option of the main contract month, reflecting the implied volatility change trend of the main contract [3] - The difference between the implied volatility index and historical volatility indicates the relative level of implied volatility to historical volatility. A larger difference means the implied volatility is relatively higher, while a smaller difference means it is relatively lower [3] Group 2: Volatility Data Visualization - The document presents the implied volatility (IV), historical volatility (HV), and their differences (IV - HV) for various financial and commodity options, including 300 - stock index, 50ETF, 1000 - stock index, 500ETF, silver, gold, soybean meal, corn, sugar, cotton, methanol, rubber, iron ore, PTA, copper, crude oil, aluminum, PVC, rebar, zinc, urea, palm oil, etc [4] Group 3: Implied Volatility and Volatility Spread Quantile Ranking - Implied volatility quantiles represent the current implied volatility level of a variety in history. A high quantile means the current implied volatility is high, and a low quantile means it is low. Volatility spread is related to the implied volatility index and historical volatility [5] - The document shows the implied volatility quantile rankings and historical volatility quantile rankings for different options such as 300 - stock index, 50ETF, PTA, methanol, etc [6]

Report Summary 1) Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. 2) Core View of the Report Recently, the futures market has been strong due to shipping companies' additional sailings cancellations and good cargo receipts on multiple routes at the end of October. The current valuation of the December contract is high, but considering the upcoming price increase announcements and the upward momentum during the long - term contract signing season, the strategy of buying on dips for the December contract remains unchanged. There may be short - term downward fluctuations, and attention should be paid to possible price cuts by shipping companies in early November. Against the backdrop of geopolitical uncertainties, the February contract may have more upside potential with the arrival of the peak season, but geopolitical fluctuations also exist. The April contract is recommended to be shorted on rallies, but it may follow the near - term contracts and show a slightly stronger trend during the peak season from November to January, and positions can be gradually established [1]. 3) Summary by Relevant Catalogs Futures Contract Data - **Contract Prices and Changes**: On October 24, 2025, the closing prices of EC2510, EC2512, EC2602, EC2604, and EC2606 were 1136.1, 1793.1, 1582.0, 1171.8, and 1374.8 respectively, with changes of - 0.04%, 0.27%, - 0.06%, 0.03%, and 1.59% [1]. - **Volume and Open Interest**: The trading volumes of EC2512, EC2602, and EC2604 were 21899, 2589, and 1290 respectively, and the trading volume of EC2510 was 932. The open interests of EC2510, EC2512, EC2602, and EC2604 decreased by 765, 94, 126, and 263 respectively [1]. - **Month - to - Month Spreads**: The spreads of EC2510 - 2512, EC2512 - 2602 were - 657.0 and 211.1 respectively, with day - on - day changes of - 5.3 and 5.7, and week - on - week changes of - 99.2 and 28.4 [1]. Spot Index Data - **Spot Indices and Changes**: As of October 20, 2025, the spot index was 1140.38, up 10.52% from the previous period. The SCFI (October 17, 2025) was 1145 US dollars/TEU, up 7.21% from the previous period. The CCFI (October 17, 2025) was 1267.91, down 1.49% from the previous period. The NCFI (October 17, 2025) was 803.21, up 14.96% from the previous period [1]. Recent European Line Quotations - **Current Booking Situation**: Currently, downstream customers are booking cabins for the end of October and early November (Week 44 - 45). The offline quotes for Week 44 are PA1400, GEMINI1600, and OA1800 US dollars [2]. - **Price Increase Announcements**: Shipping companies have announced price increases to 2500 - 2700 US dollars, with an average equivalent of about 1800 points on the futures market. On Tuesday, MSK opened bookings at 2350 US dollars, in line with expectations [2]

Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided in the given content. Core Viewpoints of the Report - From October 13 - 17, international oil prices continued to decline, and the monthly spreads of the three markets weakened. The geopolitical premium faded, and the fundamental surplus intensified. The latest IEA monthly report raised the global oil surplus forecast for 2026 again. With a large number of oil tankers heading to major trading and transportation centers, on - land inventory pressure increased significantly in October, which is the point with the largest absolute surplus throughout the year. [7] - Tensions in the Middle East flared up again as the Israeli Defense Forces carried out an air - strike on southern Gaza. Meanwhile, multiple factors influenced Russian oil supply, with India stating it would stop purchasing Russian oil, but the export volume from Russia to India in the first half of October increased by 250,000 barrels per day month - on - month. [7] - Fundamentally, global on - land oil inventories fluctuated this week, and the total waterborne inventory remained flat. OPEC production increased by about 500,000 barrels per day in September, and crude oil net exports soared. Non - OPEC countries like Brazil, the US, Guyana, and Norway also saw a significant increase in crude oil net exports. [7] - This week, oil prices and global refinery profits weakened. The profit of gasoline in the external market was slightly stronger than that of diesel, while in the domestic market, gasoline was significantly weaker than diesel. During the peak maintenance period, downstream profits declined, and the domestic start - up rate was expected to weaken marginally. The demand side provided weak support for oil prices. [7] - The subsequent oil price trend depends on whether Russian crude oil supply declines marginally and the progress of Sino - US trade negotiations before the APEC meeting at the end of October. In the baseline scenario, the surplus in the fourth quarter is over 2 million barrels per day, and it is currently in the trend of waterborne inventory converting to OECD inventory. The expected surplus in 2026 is 1.8 - 2.5 million barrels per day. Attention should be paid to the impact of sanctions on Russia and Iran on their export volumes in the fourth quarter. It is expected that the absolute price center in the fourth quarter will fall to $55 - 60 per barrel, and short - term oil prices will be in a volatile consolidation phase. [7] Summary by Relevant Catalogs 1. Oil Price Data - From October 17 to 23, WTI increased from $57.54 to $61.79, a rise of $3.29; BRENT rose from $61.29 to $65.99, an increase of $3.40; DUBAI went up from $63.26 to $65.24, a gain of $1.38. [3] - During the same period, SC increased by 12.50, OMAN rose by 4.93. The spread between SC and BRT changed by - 1.61, and the spread between SC and WTI changed by - 1.50. [3] - The price of Japanese naphtha CFR increased from $537.00 to $551.50, and the spread between Japanese naphtha and BRT increased from $86.52 to $91.46. The Singapore 380CST fuel oil premium changed by 0.73, and the spread between Singapore 380 and BRT changed by - 6.65. [3] 2. Daily News - German Chancellor Merz is optimistic that the US will exempt the German subsidiary of Russian oil company Rosneft. There are concerns that without the exemption, the German subsidiary may be cut off from major customers. [3] - The US government is preparing a proposal to open almost all US coastal waters for new offshore oil drilling, which has been opposed by local governors. The preliminary draft indicates a significant expansion of areas eligible for oil and gas leasing in the US. [4] - Kuwait's oil minister said that OPEC is ready to increase production in response to rising demand. This statement was made against the backdrop of rising oil prices after the US imposed new sanctions on Russia. [4] 3. Regional Fundamentals - According to the EIA report for the week of October 17, US crude oil exports decreased by 263,000 barrels per day to 4.203 million barrels per day; domestic crude oil production decreased by 700 barrels to 13.629 million barrels per day; commercial crude oil inventories excluding strategic reserves decreased by 1 million barrels to 422.8 million barrels, a decrease of 0.2%; the four - week average supply of US crude oil products was 20.474 million barrels per day, a decrease of 0.1% compared to the same period last year; the Strategic Petroleum Reserve (SPR) inventory increased by 800,000 barrels to 408.6 million barrels, an increase of 0.2%; commercial crude oil imports excluding strategic reserves were 5.918 million barrels per day, an increase of 393,000 barrels per day compared to the previous week. [6] - For the week of October 10, US EIA gasoline inventory decreased by 267,000 barrels (expected - 75,000 barrels, previous value - 1.601 million barrels), and EIA refined oil inventory decreased by 4.529 million barrels (expected - 294,000 barrels, previous value - 2.018 million barrels). [6] - From September 19 - 25, the operating rate of major refineries decreased, while the operating rate of Shandong local refineries increased. Domestic gasoline production decreased, while diesel production increased. Gasoline inventory increased, while diesel inventory decreased. The comprehensive profit of major refineries fluctuated downward, and the comprehensive profit of local refineries decreased month - on - month. [6]

Report Summary Price Performance - London Gold latest price is 4143.75, up 73.75 [1] - London Silver latest price is 49.11, up 1.35 [1] - London Platinum latest price is 1550.00, down 12.00 [1] - London Palladium latest price is 1425.00, up 4.00 [1] - WTI Crude latest price is 61.79, up 3.29 [1] - LME Copper latest price is 10744.50, up 75.50 [1] - Dollar Index latest is 98.93, up 0.03 [1] - Euro to US Dollar latest is 1.16, unchanged [1] - Pound to US Dollar latest is 1.33, unchanged [1] - US Dollar to Japanese Yen latest is 152.58, up 0.62 [1] Trading Data - COMEX Silver inventory is 15488.94, down 94.74 [1] - SHFE Silver inventory is 663.37, down 28.32 [1] - Gold ETF holdings is 1052.37, unchanged [1] - Silver ETF holdings is 15469.20, down 128.41 [1] - SGE Silver inventory data not shown for change [1] - SGE Gold deferred fee payment direction data not shown for change [1] - SGE Silver deferred fee payment direction latest is 2, up 1.00 [1]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided 2. Core Viewpoints - The report presents cross - market, cross - period, spot - futures, and cross - variety arbitrage tracking data for non - ferrous metals such as copper, zinc, aluminum, nickel, lead, and tin on October 24, 2025 [1][4][5] 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Cross - Market Arbitrage Tracking - **Copper**: On October 24, 2025, the domestic spot price was 85,500, the LME price was 10,733, and the ratio was 7.96; the domestic three - month price was 86,000, the LME price was 10,745, and the ratio was 7.97. The equilibrium ratio for spot import was 8.09 [1] - **Zinc**: The domestic spot price was 22,100, the LME price was 3,260, and the ratio was 6.78; the domestic three - month price was 22,370, the LME price was 3,035, and the ratio was 5.77. The equilibrium ratio for spot import was 8.50, with a profit of - 5,619.46 [1] - **Aluminum**: The domestic spot price was 21,040, the LME price was 2,819, and the ratio was 7.46; the domestic three - month price was 21,170, the LME price was 2,811, and the ratio was 7.51. The equilibrium ratio for spot import was 8.37, with a profit of - 2,543.81 [1] - **Nickel**: The domestic spot price was 123,400, the LME price was 14,999, and the ratio was 8.23. The equilibrium ratio for spot import was 8.19, with a profit of - 1,318.15 [1] - **Lead**: The domestic spot price was 17,125, the LME price was 1,971, and the ratio was 8.69; the domestic three - month price was 17,490, the LME price was 2,008, and the ratio was 11.08. The equilibrium ratio for spot import was 8.82, with a profit of - 250.04 [3] Cross - Period Arbitrage Tracking - **Copper**: On October 24, 2025, the spreads of the next - month, three - month, four - month, and five - month contracts relative to the spot month were 690, 620, 600, and 570 respectively, while the theoretical spreads were 529, 956, 1392, and 1828 [4] - **Zinc**: The spreads were 360, 385, 420, and 445, and the theoretical spreads were 213, 332, 451, and 570 [4] - **Aluminum**: The spreads were 150, 155, 145, and 150, and the theoretical spreads were 216, 333, 450, and 567 [4] - **Lead**: The spreads were 405, 330, 290, and 315, and the theoretical spreads were 211, 318, 424, and 531 [4] - **Nickel**: The spreads were 260, 450, 670, and 930 [4] - **Tin**: The spread of the 5 - 1 contract was - 790, and the theoretical spread was 5827 [4] Spot - Futures Arbitrage Tracking - **Copper**: The spreads of the current - month and next - month contracts relative to the spot were - 90 and 600, and the theoretical spreads were 397 and 971 [4] - **Zinc**: The spreads were - 115 and 245, and the theoretical spreads were 195 and 325 [4] - **Lead**: The spreads were 35 and 440, and the theoretical spreads were 161 and 275 [5] Cross - Variety Arbitrage Tracking - On October 24, 2025, the ratios of copper/zinc, copper/aluminum, copper/lead, aluminum/zinc, aluminum/lead, and lead/zinc for Shanghai (three - continuous contracts) were 3.84, 4.06, 4.92, 0.95, 1.21, and 0.78 respectively, and for London (three - continuous contracts) were 3.58, 3.78, 5.38, 0.95, 1.42, and 0.67 [5]