Yong An Qi Huo
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永安期货有色早报-20251024
Yong An Qi Huo· 2025-10-24 01:45
Group 1: Report Industry Investment Ratings - No industry investment ratings are provided in the report. Group 2: Core Views of the Report - For copper, maintain a strategy of buying on dips considering the ongoing tightness in the mining end and the growth in infrastructure and power demand in Southeast Asia and the Middle East. Pay attention to the support around $10,300 for LME copper, and consider selling put options below $10,000 or gradually building virtual inventories [1]. - For aluminum, the short - term fundamentals are decent, and keep an eye on terminal demand. In the long run, hold at low prices [1]. - For zinc, due to the poor domestic fundamentals but potential export opportunities, it is recommended to wait and see or consider short - selling LME zinc. For the internal - external spread, gradually take profits on long internal - short external spreads and watch for far - month reverse spreads. For the monthly spread, pay attention to the positive spread between December and February [2]. - For nickel, with a weak short - term real - world fundamental situation, it is advisable to wait and see due to ongoing disruptions in the Indonesian mining end and increased short - term macro uncertainties [4]. - For stainless steel, the fundamentals remain weak, with increased short - term macro uncertainties and some price - supporting motivation from Indonesian policies [8]. - For lead, expect narrow - range oscillations in the lead price next week between 17,000 - 17,300, and consider positive spreads [10]. - For tin, in the short term, follow the macro sentiment and wait and see. If there is a systemic macro risk, the tin price may have a large downside. In the long - term, hold near the cost line on dips [12]. - For industrial silicon, the short - term price is expected to oscillate weakly, and in the long - term, it will oscillate at the cycle bottom based on the seasonal marginal cost [13]. - For lithium carbonate, in the short term, supply and demand are both strong with a de - stocking trend. In the long - term, the elasticity of demand, especially with the increasing proportion of energy storage, is the key variable for a pattern reversal [14]. Group 3: Summaries by Metals Copper - **Market Data**: From October 17 - 23, the spot premium decreased by 20, the waste - refined copper spread increased by 199, and there were various changes in inventory and import profitability indicators [1]. - **Market Analysis**: The market is influenced by tariff negotiations. Fundamentally, smelting production cuts are higher than expected, and there was medium - level inventory accumulation this week. Downstream price - fixing quantities and purchasing sentiment are acceptable, and the psychological price - fixing level has risen. Copper cable and aluminum cable starts have diverged [1]. Aluminum - **Market Data**: From October 17 - 23, Shanghai, Yangtze River, and Guangdong aluminum ingot prices increased by 60, the domestic alumina price decreased by 5, and there were changes in inventory and premium indicators [1]. - **Market Analysis**: Production capacity is flat. Demand from photovoltaic components has stabilized. There was seasonal inventory accumulation during the holiday and significant post - holiday de - stocking. The global economic recovery and Fed rate - cut expectations coexist with Sino - US trade uncertainties, leading to a divergence in internal and external market trends [1]. Zinc - **Market Data**: From October 17 - 23, the spot premium decreased by 20, and there were changes in prices, inventory, and import profitability indicators. The LME C - 3M decreased by 113, and LME inventory decreased by 600 [2]. - **Market Analysis**: The zinc price oscillated this week. On the supply side, domestic TC decreased, and imported TC increased. The domestic ore supply will be tighter from Q4 this year to Q1 next year, while overseas ore supply increased significantly in Q2. On the demand side, domestic demand is seasonally weak, and overseas European demand is average. The domestic social inventory oscillated, and the LME inventory decreased [2]. Nickel - **Market Data**: From October 17 - 23, the price of 1.5% Philippine nickel ore remained unchanged, the Shanghai nickel spot price decreased by 100, and there were changes in import profitability and LME - related indicators [3]. - **Market Analysis**: Pure nickel production remains at a high level. Demand is weak, and inventory is accumulating both domestically and overseas [4]. Stainless Steel - **Market Data**: From October 17 - 23, the prices of 304 cold - rolled, 304 hot - rolled, 201 cold - rolled, 430 cold - rolled sheets, and scrap stainless steel remained unchanged [8]. - **Market Analysis**: Steel mills' production in October increased slightly compared to the previous month. Demand is mainly from rigid needs. Costs of ferronickel and ferrochrome are stable. Inventory remains at a high level [8]. Lead - **Market Data**: From October 17 - 23, the spot premium decreased by 10, and there were changes in price spreads, inventory, and import profitability indicators [9]. - **Market Analysis**: The lead price oscillated slightly at a high level this week. On the supply side, scrap volume is weak year - on - year, and recycled lead production is expected to increase in October. On the demand side, battery production increased this week, but there is an expectation of weakening demand after the National Day holiday [10]. Tin - **Market Data**: From October 17 - 23, the tin position decreased by 47, the LME C - 3M increased by 45, and the LME inventory decreased by 25 [12]. - **Market Analysis**: The tin price oscillated this week. On the supply side, the processing fee for tin ore is at a low level, and supply is gradually recovering. On the demand side, the solder market warmed up slightly during the peak season, and domestic inventory decreased slightly [12]. Industrial Silicon - **Market Data**: From October 17 - 23, the basis of 421 in Yunnan and Sichuan decreased by 220, and the basis of 553 in East China and Tianjin also decreased by 220. The number of warehouse receipts decreased by 367 [13]. - **Market Analysis**: A leading enterprise in Xinjiang resumed production this week. The overall supply of industrial silicon will decline in the dry season, but considering the maintenance of leading polysilicon enterprises, the supply - demand balance in Q4 is slightly loose [13]. Lithium Carbonate - **Market Data**: From October 17 - 23, the SMM electric and industrial lithium carbonate prices increased by 450, the basis of the main contract decreased by 2370, and the number of warehouse receipts decreased by 260 [14]. - **Market Analysis**: The lithium carbonate price oscillated strongly this week. On the raw material side, the ore market is firm, and spot supply is tight. On the lithium salt side, consumption and de - stocking are better than expected [14].
永安基差早报-20251024
Yong An Qi Huo· 2025-10-24 01:32
Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content Core Viewpoint - Not provided in the content Summary by Category Macro - On October 23, 2025, the spot price of IF was 4606 with a change of 13, the basis was 26, the corresponding contract was 2512, and the basis deviation was 0.62 [2] - The spot price of IH was 3027 with a change of 17, the basis was 3, the corresponding contract was 2512, and the basis deviation was 0.34 [2] - The spot price of IC was 7143 with a change of 15, the basis was 103, the corresponding contract was 2512, and the basis deviation was 0.84 [2] Black - For Shanghai's rebar on October 23, 2025, the spot price was 3220 with a change of 10, the basis was 149, the corresponding contract was 2601, and the basis deviation was 0.78 [3] - Beijing's rebar had a spot price of 3200 with a change of -10, the basis was 129, the corresponding contract was 2601, and the basis deviation was -0.06 [3] - Shanghai's hot - rolled coil had a spot price of 3300 with no change, the basis was 44, the corresponding contract was 2601, and the basis deviation was 0.70 [3] - Shandong's ore had a spot price of 831 with a change of 3, the basis was 54, the corresponding contract was provided by a third - party, and the basis deviation was 0.45 [3] - Tianjin Port's coke had a spot price of 1656 with no change, the basis was -112, the corresponding contract was 2601, and the basis deviation was -0.69 [3] - Port warehouse receipts of coking coal had a spot price of 1614 with a change of 36, the basis was 355, the corresponding contract was 2601, and the basis deviation was 0.70 [3] - Qinhuangdao Port's thermal coal had a spot price of 767 with a change of 3, the basis was -34, the corresponding contract was 2511, and the basis deviation was -0.17 [3] - Shahe's low - price glass had a spot price of 1104 with no change, the basis was -4, the corresponding contract was 2601, and the basis deviation was -0.01 [3] - Hubei's low - price glass had a spot price of 1070 with no change, the basis was -38, the corresponding contract was 2601, and the basis deviation was 0.00 [3] - Yinchuan's ferrosilicon had a spot price of 5580 with no change, the basis was -114, the corresponding contract was 2601, and the basis deviation was -0.80 [3] - Inner Mongolia's ferromanganese had a spot price of 6050 with no change, the basis was 162, the corresponding contract was 2601, and the basis deviation was 0.57 [3] Energy and Chemicals - Port methanol on October 23, 2025, had a spot price of 2250 with no change, the basis was -42, the corresponding contract was provided by a third - party, and the basis deviation was -0.88 [3] - Henan's methanol had a spot price of 2350 with a change of 25, the basis was 58, the corresponding contract was 2601, and the basis deviation was 0.24 [3] - Southern Shandong's methanol had a spot price of 2485 with no change, the basis was 193, the corresponding contract was 2601, and the basis deviation was 0.43 [3] - Hebei's methanol had a spot price of 2785 with no change, the basis was 493, the corresponding contract was 2601, and the basis deviation was 0.97 [3] - East China's PTA had a spot price of 4423 with a change of 29, the basis was -85, the corresponding contract was provided by a third - party, and the basis deviation was -0.87 [3] - East China's PP had a spot price of 6560 with a change of 40, the basis was -131, the corresponding contract was provided by a third - party, and the basis deviation was -0.93 [3] - North China's LLDPE had a spot price of 6920 with a change of 60, the basis was -79, the corresponding contract was provided by a third - party, and the basis deviation was -0.40 [3] - High - end PVC had a spot price of 4625 with a change of 5, the basis was -90, the corresponding contract was provided by a third - party, and the basis deviation was 0.64 [3] - Low - end PVC had a spot price of 4555 with a change of 5, the basis was -160, the corresponding contract was provided by a third - party, and the basis deviation was 0.72 [3] - East China's asphalt had a spot price of 3500 with no change, the basis was 223, the corresponding contract was 2601, and the basis deviation was 0.30 [3] - Shandong's asphalt had a spot price of 3330 with a change of 20, the basis was 133, the corresponding contract was 2601, and the basis deviation was 0.10 [3] - South China's asphalt had a spot price of 3500 with no change, the basis was 223, the corresponding contract was 2601, and the basis deviation was 0.56 [3] - Domestic ethylene glycol had a spot price of 4185 with a change of 55, the basis was 90, the corresponding contract was provided by a third - party, and the basis deviation was 0.84 [3] - Soda ash had a spot price of 1150 with a change of 20, the basis was -85, the corresponding contract was 2601, and the basis deviation was -0.62 [3] - Shandong's pulp had a spot price of 5000 with a change of 5, the basis was -250, the corresponding contract was 2601, and the basis deviation was -0.92 [3] - East China's staple fiber had a spot price of 6150 with a change of 30, the basis was -10, the corresponding contract was 2512, and the basis deviation was -0.22 [3] - Urea had a spot price of 1490 with no change, the basis was -148, the corresponding contract was 2601, and the basis deviation was -0.95 [3] - Shanghai's natural rubber had a spot price of 14880 with a change of 80, the basis was -365, the corresponding contract was 2601, and the basis deviation was 0.64 [3] - Whole latex natural rubber had a spot price of 14545 with a change of 95, the basis was -700, the corresponding contract was 2601, and the basis deviation was 0.56 [3] - Qingdao's 20 - number rubber had a spot price of 1830 with a change of 5, the basis was 606, the corresponding contract was 2512, and the basis deviation was 0.93 [3] - Styrene had a spot price of 6560 with no change, the basis was 15, the corresponding contract was 2511, and the basis deviation was -0.81 [3] Non - ferrous - On October 23, 2025, copper had a spot price of 85500 with a change of 520, the basis was 20, the corresponding contract was provided by a third - party, and the basis deviation was -0.07 [4] - International copper had a spot price of 75695 with a change of 670, the basis was -965, the corresponding contract was 2511, and the basis deviation was -0.35 [4] - Aluminum had a spot price of 21040 with a change of 60, the basis was -10, the corresponding contract was provided by a third - party, and the basis deviation was 0.12 [4] - Zinc had a spot price of 22100 with a change of 200, the basis was -60, the corresponding contract was provided by a third - party, and the basis deviation was -0.82 [4] - Lead had a spot price of 17125 with a change of 125, the basis was -205, the corresponding contract was provided by a third - party, and the basis deviation was -0.36 [4] - Nickel had a spot price of 121300 with a change of 50, the basis was 400, the corresponding contract was provided by a third - party, and the basis deviation was 0.76 [4] - Tin had a spot price of 280000 with a change of -1000, the basis was -1230, the corresponding contract was provided by a third - party, and the basis deviation was -0.67 [4] Agricultural Products - On October 23, 2025, 43% soybean meal in Jiangsu had a spot price of 2910 with a change of 50, the basis was -28, the corresponding contract was 2601, and the basis deviation was -0.09 [5] - First - grade soybean oil in Jiangsu had a spot price of 8410 with a change of -70, the basis was 222, the corresponding contract was 2601, and the basis deviation was -0.20 [5] - 36% rapeseed meal in Guangdong had a spot price of 2470 with a change of 30, the basis was 131, the corresponding contract was 2601, and the basis deviation was 0.88 [5] - Rapeseed oil at the market average price had a spot price of 10283 with a change of -100, the basis was 526, the corresponding contract was 2601, and the basis deviation was 0.99 [5] - 24° palm oil in Guangzhou had a spot price of 9000 with a change of -140, the basis was -132, the corresponding contract was 2601, and the basis deviation was -0.97 [5] - National cotton had a spot price of 14575 with a change of 15, the basis was 1000, the corresponding contract was 2601, and the basis deviation was 0.53 [5] - Guangxi's sugar had a spot price of 5750 with no change, the basis was 293, the corresponding contract was 2601, and the basis deviation was -0.02 [5] - Yunnan's sugar had a spot price of 5830 with no change, the basis was 373, the corresponding contract was 2601, and the basis deviation was 0.49 [5] - Fresh eggs in Shijiazhuang, Hebei had a spot price of 2870 with a change of 90, the basis was -157, the corresponding contract was 2512, and the basis deviation was -0.50 [5] - Fresh eggs in Dalian, Liaoning had a spot price of 2800 with a change of 90, the basis was -227, the corresponding contract was 2512, and the basis deviation was -0.57 [5] - Fresh eggs in Dezhou, Shandong had a spot price of 2650 with no change, the basis was -377, the corresponding contract was 2512, and the basis deviation was -0.70 [5] - Fresh eggs in Shangqiu, Henan had a spot price of 2700 with no change, the basis was -327, the corresponding contract was 2512, and the basis deviation was -0.72 [5] - Beian's soybean had a spot price of 4060 with no change, the basis was -53, the corresponding contract was 2601, and the basis deviation was -0.82 [5] - Jiamusi's soybean had a spot price of 4140 with no change, the basis was 27, the corresponding contract was 2601, and the basis deviation was -0.49 [5] - Changchun's corn had a spot price of 2240 with no change, the basis was 100, the corresponding contract was 2601, and the basis deviation was 0.43 [5] - Weifang's corn had a spot price of 2360 with no change, the basis was 220, the corresponding contract was 2601, and the basis deviation was 0.45 [5] - Changchun's starch had a spot price of 2580 with no change, the basis was 100, the corresponding contract was 2601, and the basis deviation was -0.03 [5] - Weifang's starch had a spot price of 2605 with no change, the basis was 165, the corresponding contract was 2601, and the basis deviation was 0.54 [5] - Pigs in Kaifeng, Henan had a spot price of 11930 with a change of 240, the basis was -270, the corresponding contract was 2601, and the basis deviation was -0.89 [5] - Hebei's jujube had a spot price of 9600 with no change, the basis was -1565, the corresponding contract was 2601, and the basis deviation was -0.68 [5] - Shandong's apples had a spot price of 6400 with no change, the basis was -2430, the corresponding contract was 2601, and the basis deviation was -0.98 [5]
永安期货焦炭日报-20251024
Yong An Qi Huo· 2025-10-24 01:28
Group 1: Report Information - Report Title: Coke Daily Report [1] - Date: October 24, 2025 [1] - Research Team: Black Team of the Research Center [1] Group 2: Price and Production Data - **Coke Prices**: - Shanxi quasi - first wet quenching coke price is 1482.39, with no daily or weekly change, a monthly increase of 54.61, and a year - on - year decrease of 23.70% [2] - Hebei quasi - first dry quenching coke price is 1735.00, with no daily or weekly change, a monthly increase of 55.00, and a year - on - year decrease of 6.72% [2] - Shandong quasi - first dry quenching coke price is 1660.00, with no daily or weekly change, a monthly increase of 55.00, and a year - on - year decrease of 21.70% [2] - Jiangsu quasi - first dry quenching coke price is 1700.00, with no daily or weekly change, a monthly increase of 55.00, and a year - on - year decrease of 21.30% [2] - Inner Mongolia second - grade coke price is 1180.00, with no daily or weekly change, a monthly increase of 100.00, and a year - on - year decrease of 30.59% [2] - **Production and Utilization**: - Blast furnace operating rate is 90.33, with a weekly decrease of 0.22, a monthly decrease of 0.02, and a year - on - year increase of 3.22% [2] - Daily average hot metal output is 239.90, with a weekly decrease of 1.05, a monthly decrease of 2.46, and a year - on - year increase of 1.79% [2] - Coking plant capacity utilization rate is 73.99, with a weekly decrease of 0.96, a monthly decrease of 1.36, and a year - on - year increase of 0.20% [2] - Daily average coke output is 51.21, with a weekly decrease of 0.07, a monthly decrease of 0.81, and a year - on - year increase of 0.37% [2] Group 3: Inventory Data - **Inventory Quantities**: - Coking plant inventory is 37.49, with a weekly decrease of 0.10, a monthly decrease of 2.05, and a year - on - year decrease of 6.02% [2] - Port inventory is 200.09, with a weekly increase of 4.94, a monthly increase of 4.03, and a year - on - year increase of 7.47% [2] - Steel mill inventory is 633.16, with a weekly decrease of 6.28, a monthly decrease of 28.15, and a year - on - year increase of 11.46% [2] - **Inventory Days**: - Steel mill inventory days are 11.07, with a weekly decrease of 0.12, a monthly decrease of 0.59, and a year - on - year increase of 2.03% [2] Group 4: Futures Data - **Futures Prices**: - Futures contract 05 price is 1870, with a daily increase of 29.50, a weekly increase of 41.50, a monthly increase of 1.50, and a year - on - year decrease of 8.29% [2] - Futures contract 09 price is 1960, with a daily increase of 39.00, a weekly increase of 50.50, a monthly increase of 48.50, and a year - on - year decrease of 6.73% [2] - Futures contract 01 price is 1731, with a daily increase of 34.50, a weekly increase of 48.50, a monthly increase of 4.50, and a year - on - year decrease of 12.27% [2] - **Basis and Spreads**: - 05 basis is - 98.61, with a daily decrease of 29.50, a weekly decrease of 41.50, a monthly increase of 41.09, and a significant year - on - year change [2] - 09 basis is - 188.61, with a daily decrease of 39.00, a weekly decrease of 50.50, a monthly decrease of 5.91, and a significant year - on - year change [2] - 01 basis is 40.39, with a daily decrease of 34.50, a weekly decrease of 48.50, a monthly increase of 38.09, and a significant year - on - year change [2] - 5 - 9 spread is - 139.00, with a daily increase of 5.00, a weekly increase of 7.00, a monthly increase of 3.00, and a significant year - on - year change [2] - 9 - 1 spread is - 90.00, with a daily decrease of 9.50, a weekly decrease of 9.00, a monthly decrease of 47.00, and a significant year - on - year change [2] - 1 - 5 spread is 229.00, with a daily increase of 4.50, a weekly increase of 2.00, a monthly increase of 44.00, and a significant year - on - year change [2]
甲醇聚烯烃早报-20251024
Yong An Qi Huo· 2025-10-24 01:25
Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content 2. Core Views - **Methanol**: The current situation remains poor, with Iranian plant shutdowns slower than expected. High imports are expected in November, and it's difficult to resolve the contradictions for the 01 contract. Port sanctions are expected to be resolved before the end of gas restrictions, but inventory reduction is difficult. Methanol has limited upside potential, and the downside space depends on the situation in the inland areas. Recently, coal prices have strengthened, but it doesn't affect profits [2]. - **Polyethylene**: The inventory of major producers is neutral year - on - year. Upstream and coal - chemical producers are reducing inventory, social inventory is flat, and downstream inventory of raw materials and finished products is also neutral. Overall inventory is neutral. The 09 basis is around - 110 in North China and - 50 in East China. Import profit is around - 200 with no further increase for now. Non - standard HD injection prices are stable, other price spreads are fluctuating, and LD is weakening. Domestic linear production has decreased recently. Attention should be paid to LL - HD conversion and US quotes, as well as the commissioning of new devices in 2025 [6]. - **Polypropylene**: Upstream and mid - stream inventories of polypropylene are decreasing. In terms of valuation, the basis is - 60, non - standard price spreads are neutral, and import profit is around - 700. Exports have been good this year. Non - standard price spreads are neutral, and prices in Europe and the US are stable. PDH profit is around - 400, propylene prices are fluctuating, and powder production starts are stable. The supply is expected to increase slightly in the future. Downstream orders are average, and raw material and finished product inventories are neutral. Under the background of over - capacity, the 01 contract is expected to face moderate to excessive pressure. If exports continue to increase or there are many PDH device overhauls, the supply pressure can be alleviated to a neutral level [6]. - **PVC**: The basis remains at 01 - 270, and the factory - pickup basis is - 480. Downstream开工率 is seasonally weakening, but the willingness to hold inventory at low prices is strong. Mid - and upstream inventories are continuously accumulating. In summer, northwest devices have seasonal overhauls, and the load center is between the spring overhaul and the high production in Q1. Attention should be paid to the commissioning of new devices and export continuity in Q4. Recent export orders have declined slightly. Coal sentiment is positive, and the cost of semi - coke is stable. Calcium carbide profits are under pressure due to PVC overhauls. The export counter - offer for caustic soda is FOB380. The current static inventory contradiction is accumulating slowly, costs are stable, downstream performance is average, and the macro situation is neutral. Attention should be paid to exports, coal prices, commercial housing sales, terminal orders, and开工率 [6]. 3. Summary by Commodity Methanol - **Price Data**: From October 17 to October 23, 2025, the power coal futures price remained at 801. The Jiangsu spot price decreased from 2280 to 2248, and the import profit decreased from - 10 to - 42 [2]. - **Analysis**: The current situation is poor, with high imports expected in November. It's difficult to resolve the 01 contract contradictions, and inventory reduction is difficult. Methanol has limited upside potential, and the downside space depends on the inland areas [2]. Polyethylene - **Price Data**: From October 17 to October 23, 2025, the Northeast Asian ethylene price remained at 780. The price of North China LL increased from 6830 to 6920, and the import profit remained around - 120 - 128 [6]. - **Analysis**: Inventory is neutral, the basis is stable, import profit is stable, and domestic linear production has decreased. Attention should be paid to LL - HD conversion and new device commissioning [6]. Polypropylene - **Price Data**: From October 17 to October 23, 2025, the Shandong propylene price remained at 6000 - 6150. The price of East China PP increased from 6485 to 6525, and the export profit increased from - 15 to - 11 [6]. - **Analysis**: Upstream and mid - stream inventories are decreasing, the basis is stable, import profit is stable, and exports are good. Supply is expected to increase slightly, and attention should be paid to exports and PDH device overhauls [6]. PVC - **Price Data**: From October 17 to October 23, 2025, the Northwest calcium carbide price remained at 2400 - 2450. The price of calcium carbide - based PVC in East China remained at 4660 - 4680, and the basis remained at - 90 [6]. - **Analysis**: The basis is stable, downstream开工率 is seasonally weakening, mid - and upstream inventories are accumulating. Attention should be paid to new device commissioning and export continuity [6].
永安期货铁合金早报-20251024
Yong An Qi Huo· 2025-10-24 01:17
Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content Core Viewpoints - Not provided in the content Summary by Related Catalogs Price - For silicon ferroalloy, on October 24, 2025, the latest price of Ningxia 72 silicon ferroalloy natural block was 5180 yuan, unchanged from the previous day and up 50 yuan from the previous week; the latest price of Inner Mongolia 72 was 5200 yuan, unchanged from the previous day and up 20 yuan from the previous week; the latest price of Qinghai 72 was 5200 yuan, up 30 yuan from the previous day and up 50 yuan from the previous week; the latest price of Shaanxi 72 was 5200 yuan, unchanged from the previous day and up 100 yuan from the previous week; the latest price of Shaanxi 75 was 5800 yuan, unchanged from the previous day and down 300 yuan from the previous week. The latest price of Jiangsu 72 silicon ferroalloy qualified block was 5650 yuan, up 50 yuan from the previous day and up 80 yuan from the previous week; the latest price of Tianjin 72 (trader price) was 5650 yuan, unchanged from the previous day and the previous week. The latest price of Tianjin 72 silicon ferroalloy export was 1055 US dollars, unchanged from the previous day and down 5 US dollars from the previous week; the latest price of Tianjin 75 was 1105 US dollars, unchanged from the previous day and down 5 US dollars from the previous week [2]. - For silicon manganese, on October 24, 2025, the latest price of Inner Mongolia 6517 silicon manganese (factory - ex price) was 5680 yuan, unchanged from the previous day and the previous week; the latest price of Ningxia 6517 was 5580 yuan, unchanged from the previous day and down 20 yuan from the previous week; the latest price of Guangxi 6517 was 5650 yuan, unchanged from the previous day and the previous week; the latest price of Guizhou 6517 was 5600 yuan, unchanged from the previous day and the previous week; the latest price of Yunnan 6517 was 5600 yuan, unchanged from the previous day and the previous week; the latest price of Guangxi 6014 was 5100 yuan, unchanged from the previous day and the previous week. The latest price of Ningxia 6517 silicon manganese (trader price) was 5580 yuan, unchanged from the previous day and down 20 yuan from the previous week; the latest price of Jiangsu 6517 was 5750 yuan, unchanged from the previous day and up 50 yuan from the previous week [2]. Supply - For silicon ferroalloy, the content shows the production data of 136 silicon ferroalloy enterprises in China, including monthly production, weekly production (with a capacity - share of 95%), and the capacity utilization rate of 136 silicon ferroalloy production enterprises in Inner Mongolia, Ningxia, and Shaanxi on a monthly basis from 2021 - 2025 [4]. - For silicon manganese, the content shows the weekly production data of silicon manganese in China from 2021 - 2025, as well as the procurement price and quantity of silicon manganese 6517 by Hebei Iron and Steel Group on a monthly basis [6]. Demand - For silicon ferroalloy, the demand - related data includes China's estimated and revised monthly production of crude steel, the production of magnesium metal, the production of stainless - steel crude steel, the procurement volume and price of FeSi75 - B by Hebei Iron and Steel Group, and the export volume of silicon ferroalloy from 2021 - 2025 [4]. - For silicon manganese, the demand - related data includes China's estimated and revised monthly production of crude steel, the demand for silicon manganese in China (according to Steel Union's data), and the export volume of silicon manganese from 2021 - 2025 [4][7]. Inventory - For silicon ferroalloy, the inventory data includes the weekly inventory of 60 sample enterprises in China, Ningxia, Inner Mongolia, and Shaanxi, the daily total number of warehouse receipts, effective forecasts, and the sum of warehouse receipts and effective forecasts on the CZCE from 2021 - 2025. It also shows the monthly average available inventory days in East China, South China, and the North region, as well as the daily average available inventory days in China [5]. - For silicon manganese, the inventory data includes the daily total number of warehouse receipts, effective forecasts, and the sum of warehouse receipts and effective forecasts on the CZCE, the daily single - sided trading position, the weekly inventory of 63 sample enterprises in China, and the monthly average available inventory days in China from 2021 - 2025 [7]. Cost and Profit - For silicon ferroalloy, the cost - related data includes electricity prices in Inner Mongolia, Qinghai, Ningxia, and Shaanxi, the market price of small - sized semi - coke in Shaanxi, the market price of 98% silica in the Northwest region, and the market price of 70% Fe iron oxide scale in Shijiazhuang. The profit - related data includes the production cost, the profit after converting to the main contract, and the spot profit of silicon ferroalloy in Ningxia, as well as the production cost and the profit after converting to the main contract of silicon ferroalloy in Inner Mongolia, and the export profit of 75 silicon ferroalloy from 2021 - 2025 [5]. - For silicon manganese, the profit - related data includes the profit of silicon manganese in Inner Mongolia, Guangxi, the North region, and the South region (according to Steel Union's data), the profit after converting to the main contract of silicon manganese in Guangxi and Ningxia from 2021 - 2025 [7].
永安期货钢材早报-20251024
Yong An Qi Huo· 2025-10-24 01:15
Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No investment rating provided in the report. 2. Core View No core view provided in the report. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Price and Profit - The report presents the spot prices of various steel products in different regions from October 17 to October 23, 2025, including Beijing, Shanghai, Chengdu, Xi'an, Guangzhou, and Wuhan for rebar, and Tianjin, Shanghai, and Lecong for hot-rolled and cold-rolled coils. Price changes are also provided, such as a 20 increase in Guangzhou rebar and a 40 increase in Wuhan rebar, and a 10 - 50 increase in different hot-rolled and cold-rolled coils in various regions [1]. Basis and Spread No content related to basis and spread is provided in the given report. Production and Inventory No content related to production and inventory is provided in the given report.
纸浆早报-20251024
Yong An Qi Huo· 2025-10-24 01:11
Group 1 - The closing price of the SP main contract on October 23, 2025, was 5250.00 [3] - The closing prices of the main contract from October 17 - 23, 2025, were 5122.00, 5156.00, 5170.00, 5220.00, and 5250.00 respectively [3] - The corresponding converted US - dollar prices were 627.35, 631.87, 634.15, 639.70, and 639.70 respectively [3] - The daily price changes were 5.47776%, 0.66380%, 0.27153%, 0.96712%, and 0.57471% respectively [3] - The Shandong Yinxing basis from October 17 - 23, 2025, was 478, 444, 430, 380, and 350 respectively [3] - The Jiangsu - Zhejiang - Shanghai Yinxing basis from October 17 - 23, 2025, was 438, 404, 390, 340, and 310 respectively [3] Group 2 - With a 13% VAT calculation, the import profits for Canadian Golden Lion, Canadian Lion, and Chilean Yinxing were - 145.57, - 593.29, and - 101.92 respectively [4] - The port US - dollar prices for Canadian Golden Lion, Canadian Lion, and Chilean Yinxing were 780, 730, and 700 respectively [4] - The Shandong region RMB prices for Canadian Golden Lion, Canadian Lion, and Chilean Yinxing were 6200, 5350, and 5600 respectively [4] Group 3 - From October 17 - 23, 2025, the national average prices of softwood pulp, hardwood pulp, natural pulp, and chemimechanical pulp remained unchanged at 6073.75, 4810.75, 5415.00, and 3686.25 respectively [4] - The Shandong region average prices of softwood pulp, hardwood pulp, natural pulp, and chemimechanical pulp remained unchanged at 6245.00, 4775.00, 5400.00, and 3600.00 respectively [4] Group 4 - From October 20 - 23, 2025, the cultural paper (double - offset index, double - copper index), packaging paper (white - card index), and the price of household paper (household index) remained unchanged at 5725, 5670, 4350, and 839 respectively [4] - The profit margins of double - offset paper, double - copper paper, white - card paper, and household paper on October 20, 2025, were - 0.0774%, 12.9677%, - 10.3133%, and 7.1077% respectively [4] - The profit margins of double - offset paper, double - copper paper, white - card paper, and household paper on October 21, 2025, were - 0.0774%, 12.9677%, - 10.3133%, and 7.0696% respectively [4] - The profit margins of double - offset paper, double - copper paper, white - card paper, and household paper on October 22, 2025, were - 0.0774%, 12.9677%, - 10.3133%, and 6.9741% respectively [4] - The profit margins of double - offset paper, double - copper paper, white - card paper, and household paper on October 23, 2025, were - 0.0774%, 12.9677%, - 10.3133%, and 7.1077% respectively [4] - The change in the household paper profit margin from October 20 - 23, 2025, was 0.1336, while the others remained unchanged [4] Group 5 - From October 17 - 23, 2025, the price differences between softwood and hardwood pulp, softwood and natural pulp, softwood and chemimechanical pulp, and softwood pulp and waste paper remained unchanged at 1360.00, 200, 1800, and 4024 respectively [4]
焦煤日报-20251024
Yong An Qi Huo· 2025-10-24 01:06
Report Information - Report Title: Coking Coal Daily Report [1] - Report Date: October 24, 2025 [1] - Research Team: Black Team of the Research Center [1] Price Information - **Coal Prices**: The latest price of Liulin Main Coking Coal is 1575.00, with no daily change, a weekly increase of 25.00, a monthly increase of 72.00, and an annual decrease of 1.56%. The price of Anze Main Coking Coal increased by 50.00 daily, 70.00 weekly, 100.00 monthly, and decreased by 7.51% annually [2]. - **Inventory Prices**: The total inventory is 3311.29, with a weekly decrease of 8.29, a monthly decrease of 47.91, and an annual decrease of 12.97%. The coal mine inventory decreased by 15.87 weekly, 21.42 monthly, and 27.22% annually [2]. - **Futures Prices**: The latest price of the 05 contract is 1303.00, with a daily increase of 31.00, a weekly increase of 36.50, a monthly decrease of 6.00, and an annual decrease of 6.70%. The 09 contract price increased by 27.00 daily, 31.50 weekly, 14.50 monthly, and decreased by 2.17% annually [2]. Core Viewpoints - The report presents the latest prices, inventory, and futures prices of coking coal, showing the price changes and trends of different types of coking coal in different time - periods [2]. Other Information - The report also includes historical price trend charts of coking coal, such as the price trends of Liulin Main Coking Coal, Mongolian Coal Warehouse Receipts, and Mongolian Port Raw Coal Warehouse Pick - up Prices from 2021 to 2025 [3][4]
油脂油料早报-20251024
Yong An Qi Huo· 2025-10-24 01:03
Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided Core Viewpoints - The USDA's weekly export sales report was suspended due to the federal government shutdown, but the overseas agricultural service will continue to process export sales information, and the missing data will be补发 after federal funds are restored [1] - The expected net increase in US soybean export sales for the week ending October 16, 2025/26 is 60.0 - 200.0 million tons, with similar ranges for corn, wheat, bean meal, and soybean oil [1] - If Indonesia upgrades from B40 to B50, it will require an additional 3 million tons of palm oil, reducing its export supply significantly as it currently exports 24 - 28 million tons annually [1][2] - Global vegetable oil demand in the coming year will rely on sunflower oil as US and Brazilian exportable soybean oil supply is expected to drop from 2.7 million tons in 2024/25 to 1.6 million tons in 2025/26, a 41% decrease [2] - Argentina's soybean product export tax exemption policy has stimulated forward sales, which may weaken its crushing capacity and limit soybean oil exports [2] - Sunflower oil prices remain strong, leading vegetable oil prices, with a price of $1,360 per ton in the European market in mid - October, indicating tight supply [2] Summaries by Relevant Catalogs Overnight Market Information - The USDA's weekly export sales report was suspended due to the federal government shutdown, and the overseas agricultural service will continue to process export sales information. The missing data will be补发 after federal funds are restored [1] - Surveys show expected net increases in US export sales for the week ending October 16: soybeans 60.0 - 200.0 million tons, corn 80.0 - 200.0 million tons, wheat 35.0 - 65.0 million tons, bean meal 15.0 - 45.0 million tons, and soybean oil 0.5 - 2.5 million tons [1] MPOC Forecast - If Indonesia implements the B50 policy, it will need an additional 3 million tons of palm oil for blending, reducing its export supply to 22 million tons or less from the current 24 - 28 million tons annually [1][2] Global Vegetable Oil Supply and Demand - Global vegetable oil demand in the coming year will rely on sunflower oil as US and Brazilian exportable soybean oil supply is expected to drop by 41% from 2.7 million tons in 2024/25 to 1.6 million tons in 2025/26 [2] - Argentina's soybean product export tax exemption policy has stimulated forward sales, which may limit its soybean oil exports in the coming months [2] - Sunflower oil prices remain strong, leading vegetable oil prices, with a price of $1,360 per ton in the European market in mid - October, indicating tight supply [2] Spot Prices - Spot prices of various products in different regions from October 17 - 23, 2025 are provided, including bean meal in Jiangsu, rapeseed meal in Guangdong, soybean oil in Jiangsu, palm oil in Guangzhou, and rapeseed oil in Jiangsu [11]
LPG早报-20251024
Yong An Qi Huo· 2025-10-24 00:58
Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core View of the Report - PG main contract rose significantly due to news disturbances in macro and geopolitical aspects. Despite large pressure on spot supply and a sharp drop in PG basis turning negative, the futures market may not decline significantly in the short - term under the influence of tariff policies and geopolitical disturbances because of concerns about future supply. There is high inventory pressure and short - term supply pressure, but chemical demand provides support and combustion demand is expected to pick up [4]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Daily Changes - On Thursday, the price of civil LPG rebounded. In East China, it was 4267 (+8), in Shandong 4340 (+90), and in South China 4400 (+0). The price of ether - after carbon four was 4440 (+50). The lowest delivery location was East China, with a basis of - 89 (-21), and the November - December spread was 122 (-22). FEI and CP increased to 494.5 (+16.5) and 456 (+9) dollars/ton respectively [4]. Weekly Views - The PG main contract rose significantly due to news disturbances in macro and geopolitical aspects. The basis was - 20 (-334), and the November - December spread was 137 (+59). Domestic civil LPG prices dropped significantly. The cheapest deliverable was Shandong civil LPG at 4200 (-250); in East China it was 4345 (-39), and in South China 4460 (-110). Wanhua added 2300 lots of warehouse receipts. The overseas market prices dropped sharply. The FEI monthly spread was - 10 dollars (+5), and the CP monthly spread was - 4 dollars (+5). The internal - external price difference PG - CP reached 132 (+27); PG - FEI reached 112 (+14). FEI - CP reached 20 (+12.5). The US - Asia arbitrage window was closed. The arrival discount of CP propane and butane in South China increased significantly to 78 (+26). Freight rates dropped significantly, with the US Gulf - Japan at 108 (-18) and the Middle East - Far East at 60.5 (-2.5). The FEI - MOPJ spread narrowed but the switching window remained open at - 71 (-12). The profit of PDH to produce propylene decreased. The PDH operating rate was 68.76% (-2.12 pct), with Zhongjing Phase II resuming production, but Bohua under maintenance and Wanda Tianhong having a short - term shutdown; enterprises are expected to increase production in the coming week [4].