| | | | | 燃料油早报 | | 研究中心能化团队 2025/10/27 | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 燃 料 油 | | | | | | | | | 日期 | 鹿特丹3.5% HSF | 鹿特丹0.5% VLS | 鹿特丹HSFO-Br | 鹿特丹10ppm G | 鹿特丹VLSFO-G | LGO-Brent M1 | 鹿特丹VLSFO-H | | | O掉期 M1 | FO掉期 M1 | ent M1 | asoil掉期 M1 | O M1 | | SFO M1 | | 2025/10/20 | 365.63 | 394.21 | -3.00 | 614.83 | -220.62 | 23.69 | 28.58 | | 2025/10/21 | 366.84 | 397.70 | -3.25 | 617.65 | -219.95 | 23.78 | 30.86 | | 2025/10/22 | 373.89 | 402.66 | -3.12 | 632.26 | -229.60 | 24.42 | 28.77 | | ...

Group 1: Report Information - Report title: Synthetic Rubber Morning Report [2] - Report date: October 27, 2025 [3] - Report team: Research Center's Energy and Chemicals Team [3] Group 2: BR (Butadiene Rubber) Data Futures Market - BR主力合约(12) price on October 24: 11120, with no daily change and a weekly increase of 280 [4] - Open interest on October 24: 66694, a daily decrease of 3178 and a weekly decrease of 8134 [4] - Trading volume on October 24: 100660, a daily increase of 1262 and a weekly decrease of 1290 [4] - Warehouse receipt quantity on October 24: 8920, with no daily change and a weekly increase of 280 [4] - Long - short ratio on October 24: 37.38, a daily decrease of 2 and a weekly decrease of 6 [4] - Basis of cis - butadiene on October 24: - 20, with no daily change and a weekly decrease of 230 [4] - Basis of styrene - butadiene on October 24: 430, a daily increase of 50 and a weekly decrease of 180 [4] - Spread between 12 - 01 contracts on October 24: 25, with no daily change and a weekly increase of 10 [4] - Spread between 01 - 02 contracts on October 24: 5, a daily decrease of 5 and a weekly increase of 5 [4] - Spread between RU - BR on October 24: 4215, a daily increase of 90 and a weekly increase of 245 [4] - Spread between NR - BR on October 24: 1385, a daily increase of 75 and a weekly increase of 45 [4] Spot Market - Shandong market price on October 24: 11100, with no daily change and a weekly increase of 50 [4] - Transfar market price on October 24: 10950, with no daily change and a weekly increase of 50 [4] - Qilu ex - factory price on October 24: 11200, with no daily change and no weekly change [4] - CFR Northeast Asia price on October 24: 1475, with no daily change and no weekly change [4] - CFR Southeast Asia price on October 24: 1700, with no daily change and no weekly change [4] - Spot processing profit on October 24: 342, a daily increase of 61 and a weekly increase of 290 [4] - Import profit on October 24: - 1278, with no daily change and a weekly increase of 47 [4] - Export profit on October 24: 1803, with no daily change and a weekly decrease of 41 [4] Group 3: BD (Butadiene) Data Spot Market - Shandong market price on October 24: 8390, a daily decrease of 60 and a weekly decrease of 235 [4] - Jiangsu market price on October 24: 8350, a daily decrease of 100 and a weekly decrease of 150 [4] - Yangzi ex - factory price on October 24: 8400, a daily decrease of 200 and a weekly decrease of 200 [4] - CFR China price on October 24: 960, a daily decrease of 10 and a weekly decrease of 50 [4] Profit - Carbon four extraction profit: Data after October 22 is N/A [4] - Butene oxidative dehydrogenation profit on October 24: - 254, a daily decrease of 100 and a weekly decrease of 150 [4] - Import profit on October 24: 473, a daily decrease of 20 and a weekly increase of 250 [4] - Export profit on October 24: - 968, a daily decrease of 91 and a weekly decrease of 473 [4] Group 4: Other Product Profits - Styrene - butadiene production profit on October 24: 988, a daily increase of 150 and a weekly increase of 238 [4] - ABS production profit: Data after October 22 is N/A [4] - SBS production profit on October 24: 585, a daily increase of 140 and a weekly decrease of 175 [4]

Group 1: Price Performance - London gold latest price is 4104.40 with a change of -39.35 [1] - London silver latest price is 48.01 with a change of -1.10 [1] - London platinum latest price is 1649.00 with a change of 99.00 [1] - London palladium latest price is 1463.00 with a change of 38.00 [1] - WTI crude latest price is 61.50 with a change of -0.29 [1] - LME copper latest price is 10947.50 with a change of 203.00 [1] - Dollar index latest is 98.94 with a change of 0.01 [11] - Euro - US dollar latest is 1.16 with a change of 0.00 [11] - Pound - US dollar latest is 1.33 with a change of -0.00 [11] - US dollar - Japanese yen latest is 152.89 with a change of 0.30 [11] - US 10 - year TIPS latest is 1.73 with a change of 0.02 [11] Group 2: Trading Data - COMEX silver inventory data is not provided [2] - SHFE silver latest inventory is 664.97 with a change of 1.60 [2] - Gold ETF latest holding is 1046.93 with a change of -5.44 [2] - Silver ETF latest holding is 15419.81 with a change of -49.39 [2] - SGE silver inventory data is not provided [2] - SGE gold deferred fee payment direction latest is 1 with a change of 0.00 [2] - SGE silver deferred fee payment direction latest is 1 with a change of -1.00 [2]

1000.00 1500.00 2000.00 2500.00 3000.00 3500.00 4000.00 4500.00 1月 2月 3月 4月 5月 6月 7月 8月 9月 10月 11月 12月 1月 柳林主焦 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 500.00 1000.00 1500.00 2000.00 2500.00 3000.00 3500.00 100.00 200.00 300.00 400.00 500.00 600.00 700.00 800.00 600.00 1100.00 1600.00 2100.00 2600.00 3100.00 3600.00 4100.00 4600.00 1月 2月 3月 4月 5月 6月 7月 8月 9月 10月 11月 12月 1月 蒙煤仓单 焦煤日报 2025/10/27 研究中心黑色团队 | | 最新 | 日变化 | 周变化 | 月变化 年变化 | | 最新 | 日变化 | 周变化 | 月变化 | 年变化 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- ...

| | 最新 | 日变化 | 周变化 | 月变化 同比 | | 最新 | 日变化 | 周变化 | 月变化 同比 | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 山西准一湿熄 | 1482.39 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 54.61 | -23.70% 高炉开工率 | 89.94 | | -0.39 | -0.92 | 2.22% | | 河北准一干熄 | 1735.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 55.00 | -6.72% 铁水日均产量 | 239.90 | | -1.05 | -2.46 | 1.79% | | 山东准一干熄 | 1660.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 55.00 | -21.70% 盘面05 | 1895 | 25.00 | 30.50 | 38.00 | -5.82% | | 江苏准一干熄 | 1700.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 55.00 | -21.30% 盘面09 | 1973.5 | 13.50 | 27.50 | 78.50 | -4.41% | ...

Report Overview - The report is a morning report on methanol and polyolefins issued by the Energy and Chemicals Team of the Research Center on October 27, 2025, covering methanol, polyethylene (PE), polypropylene (PP), and polyvinyl chloride (PVC) [1][2] 1. Methanol Market Data - From October 2 to October 4, 2025, the price of Jiangsu spot decreased from 2275 to 2250, and the price of CFR China decreased from 263 to 262. The daily change of Jiangsu spot was -5, and the daily change of CFR China was -2 [2] Core View - The current situation is poor. The shutdown in Iran is slower than expected, and there should still be high imports in November. It is difficult to resolve the contradiction in the 01 contract. The port sanctions issue is expected to be resolved before the end of gas restrictions. Inventory depletion is difficult, and methanol has limited upside potential. The downside space depends on the inland market. Recently, coal prices have strengthened, but it does not affect profits [2] 2. Polyethylene (PE) Market Data - From October 2 to October 4, 2025, the price of North China LL remained at 6840, and the price of East China LL increased from 7025 to 7075. The daily change of North China LL was 0, and the daily change of East China LL was 25 [7] Core View - The inventory of Sinopec and PetroChina is neutral year - on - year. Upstream and coal - chemical enterprises are destocking, and social inventory is flat. Downstream inventory of raw materials and finished products is neutral. Overall inventory is neutral. The 09 contract basis is about - 110 in North China and - 50 in East China. The overseas markets in Europe and America are stable, and the Southeast Asian market is stable. The import profit is around - 200, with no further increase for now. The price of non - standard HD injection molding is stable, and other price differentials are fluctuating. LD is weakening. The number of maintenance in September is the same as the previous month, and the domestic linear production has decreased recently. Pay attention to the LL - HD conversion and US quotes. The new plant pressure in 2025 is significant, and focus on the commissioning of new plants [7] 3. Polypropylene (PP) Market Data - From October 20 to October 24, 2025, the price of East China PP increased from 6510 to 6550, and the price of North China PP increased from 6503 to 6543. The daily change of East China PP was 25, and the daily change of North China PP was 18 [7] Core View - The upstream inventory of Sinopec and PetroChina and the mid - stream inventory are decreasing. In terms of valuation, the basis is - 60, the non - standard price differential is neutral, and the import profit is around - 700. Exports have been good this year. The non - standard price differential is neutral. The markets in Europe and America are stable. The PDH profit is around - 400, propylene is fluctuating, and the powder production start - up rate is stable. The拉丝 production ratio is neutral. The subsequent supply is expected to increase slightly month - on - month. The current downstream orders are average, and the raw material and finished product inventories are neutral. Under the background of over - capacity, the 01 contract is expected to face a slightly excessive supply pressure. If exports continue to increase or there are many PDH plant maintenance, the supply pressure can be alleviated to a neutral level [7] 4. Polyvinyl Chloride (PVC) Market Data - From October 20 to October 24, 2025, the price of Northwest calcium carbide increased from 2450 to 2500, and the price of calcium carbide - based PVC in East China remained at 4680. The daily change of Northwest calcium carbide was 50, and the daily change of calcium carbide - based PVC in East China was 0 [7][10] Core View - The basis of the 01 contract is maintained at - 270, and the factory - pickup basis is - 480. The downstream operating rate is seasonally weakening, and the willingness to hold goods at low prices is strong. The inventory of the middle and upper reaches is continuously accumulating. The Northwest plants have seasonal maintenance in summer, and the load center is between the spring maintenance and the high production in Q1. In Q4, pay attention to the commissioning of new plants and the sustainability of exports. The recent export orders have decreased slightly. The coal market sentiment is positive, the cost of semi - coke is stable, and the profit of calcium carbide is under pressure due to PVC maintenance. The FOB counter - offer for caustic soda exports is 380. Pay attention to whether the subsequent export orders can support the high price of caustic soda. The comprehensive profit of PVC is - 100. Currently, the static inventory contradiction is accumulating slowly, the cost is stable, the downstream performance is average, and the macro - environment is neutral. Pay attention to exports, coal prices, commercial housing sales, terminal orders, and operating rates [7]

4500 5500 6500 7500 8500 9500 01/01 02/01 03/01 04/01 05/01 06/01 07/01 08/01 09/01 10/01 11/01 12/01 72%FeSi：市场价：内蒙古（日） 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 4000 5000 6000 7000 8000 9000 10000 01/01 02/01 03/01 04/01 05/01 06/01 07/01 08/01 09/01 10/01 11/01 12/01 72%FeSi：市场价：青海 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 4000 5000 6000 7000 8000 9000 10000 01/01 02/01 03/01 04/01 05/01 06/01 07/01 08/01 09/01 10/01 11/01 12/01 72%FeSi：市场价：宁夏 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 4500 5500 6500 7500 8500 9500 01/01 02/01 03/01 04/01 05/01 06/01 07/0 ...

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided 2. Core Viewpoints - No information provided 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Price and Profit - The report presents the spot prices of various steel products in different regions from October 20th to October 24th, 2025, including Beijing, Shanghai, Chengdu, etc. For rebar, prices in Beijing, Shanghai, and Guangzhou decreased by 40 yuan, while prices in Chengdu and Xi'an remained unchanged. For hot-rolled coils, prices in Tianjin decreased by 40 yuan, and in Shanghai decreased by 30 yuan, while prices in Lecong remained unchanged. For cold-rolled coils, prices in all regions remained unchanged [1]. Basis and Spread - No information provided Production and Inventory - No information provided

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content 2. Core View of the Report - The PG main contract fluctuated upward. The domestic civil gas price dropped significantly. The cheapest delivery product was East China civil gas. The warehouse receipt was 2416 lots. The overseas price soared. The PDH profit decreased. The arrival was at a low level, the external release decreased, and both port inventory and factory inventory decreased. With chemical demand support and the expectation of warming combustion demand, it is expected that the spot will maintain a slight increase. Propane is still greatly affected by the Sino - US tariff policy, and cautious participation is recommended [4] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalog 3.1 Daily Changes - On Friday, civil gas continued to rebound slightly. East China was 4279 (+12), Shandong was 4360 (+20), and South China was 4405 (+5). Ether - after carbon four was 4470 (+30). The lowest delivery location was East China, with a basis of - 94 (-45), and the November - December spread was 68 (-52). FEI and CP increased, reaching 492 (+6) and 455 (+1) US dollars per ton respectively [4] 3.2 Weekly View - The PG main contract fluctuated upward. The basis was - 69 (-49), the November - December spread was 90 (-47), and the December - January spread was 113 (-1). The domestic civil gas price dropped significantly. The cheapest delivery product was East China civil gas at 4279 (-66); Shandong was 4360 (+160), and South China was 4405 (-55). There were 2416 lots of warehouse receipts, including 2300 from Wanhua, 64 more from Yunda, and 52 more from Haiyu Petrochemical. The overseas price soared; the FEI monthly spread was - 6.25 US dollars (+3.75), and the CP monthly spread was - 8 US dollars (-4). PG - CP reached 114 (-17); PG - FEI reached 79 (-33). FEI - CP reached 35 (+15). The US - Asia arbitrage window opened. The CP South China arrival discount was 74 (-4). The freight from the US Gulf to Japan was 116 (+0), and from the Middle East to the Far East was 56 (-4). The FEI - MOPJ decreased but the switching window was still open, with the latest at - 82.5 (-11.5). The PDH profit decreased. The arrival was at a low level, the external release decreased, and both port inventory and factory inventory decreased; supported by chemical demand and with the expectation of warming combustion demand. The PDH operating rate was 71.66% (+2.9 pct) due to the restart of Hebei Haiwei and the increased load of Wanda Tianhong, but Zhongjing Phase II shut down again. Next week, Lihuayi Weiyuan is expected to resume. Overall, there is no pressure on inventory, the downstream purchasing willingness has increased, and it is expected that the spot will maintain a slight increase [4]

P T A 日期 原油 石脑油日 本 PX CFR 台湾 PTA内盘现 货 POY 1 50D/4 8F 石脑油裂 解价差 PX加工差 PTA加 工差 聚酯毛利 PTA平衡 负荷 PTA负 荷 仓单+有 效预报 TA基差 产销 2025/1 0/20 61.0 581 815 4315 6390 97.79 234.0 24 177 80.7 78.8 47536 -85 0.55 2025/1 0/21 61.3 540 784 4320 6340 90.52 244.0 70 131 80.7 78.8 48538 -87 1.65 2025/1 0/22 62.6 552 798 4370 6380 92.72 246.0 44 118 80.7 78.8 48742 -88 0.75 2025/1 0/23 66.0 573 812 4425 6360 89.42 239.0 24 29 80.7 78.8 50945 -85 1.00 2025/1 0/24 65.9 581 815 4450 6400 97.79 234.0 24 43 80.6 78.8 50945 -82 0.80 变化 -0 ...