Report Overview - The report provides cross - market, cross - period, and cross - variety arbitrage tracking data for non - ferrous metals on August 21, 2025 [1][4][8] Cross - Market Arbitrage Tracking Copper - Spot price: domestic 78740, LME 9619, ratio 8.22; March price: domestic 78610, LME 9710, ratio 8.09. Spot import equilibrium ratio 8.17, profit 287.54; spot export profit - 327.67 [1] Zinc - Spot price: domestic 22160, LME 2768, ratio 8.01; March price: domestic 22250, LME 2777, ratio 6.01. Spot import equilibrium ratio 8.66, profit - 1804.06 [1] Aluminum - Spot price: domestic 20520, LME 2566, ratio 8.00; March price: domestic 20500, LME 2568, ratio 7.97. Spot import equilibrium ratio 8.46, profit - 1201.30 [1] Nickel - Spot price: domestic 118750, LME 14825, ratio 8.01. Spot import equilibrium ratio 8.25, profit - 2009.30 [1] Lead - Spot price: domestic 16550, LME 1932, ratio 8.59; March price: domestic 16755, LME 1972, ratio 11.25. Spot import equilibrium ratio 8.86, profit - 513.73 [3] Cross - Period Arbitrage Tracking Copper - Spreads for次月 - 现货月, 三月 - 现货月, 四月 - 现货月, 五月 - 现货月 are - 260, - 280, - 280, - 310 respectively; theoretical spreads are 496, 891, 1294, 1698 [4] Zinc - Spreads for次月 - 现货月, 三月 - 现货月, 四月 - 现货月, 五月 - 现货月 are - 20, - 35, - 40, - 45 respectively; theoretical spreads are 214, 335, 455, 576 [4] Aluminum - Spreads for次月 - 现货月, 三月 - 现货月, 四月 - 现货月, 五月 - 现货月 are - 30, - 65, - 90, - 115 respectively; theoretical spreads are 214, 329, 443, 558 [4] Lead - Spreads for次月 - 现货月, 三月 - 现货月, 四月 - 现货月, 五月 - 现货月 are - 85, - 70, - 40, - 20 respectively; theoretical spreads are 209, 314, 419, 525 [4] Nickel - Spreads for次月 - 现货月, 三月 - 现货月, 四月 - 现货月, 五月 - 现货月 are - 270, - 30, 180, 420 respectively [4] Tin - 5 - 1 spread is 2810, theoretical spread is 5556 [4] Cross - Variety Arbitrage Tracking - Ratios for copper/zinc, copper/aluminum, copper/lead, aluminum/zinc, aluminum/lead, lead/zinc in Shanghai (three - continuous) are 3.53, 3.83, 4.69, 0.92, 1.22, 0.75 respectively; in London (three - continuous) are 3.49, 3.77, 4.91, 0.92, 1.30, 0.71 respectively [8] Futures - Spot Arbitrage Tracking Copper - Spreads for current - month contract - spot and next - month contract - spot are 155 and - 105 respectively; theoretical spreads are 452 and 850 [4] Zinc - Spreads for current - month contract - spot and next - month contract - spot are 125 and 105 respectively; theoretical spreads are 179 and 298 [5] Lead - Spreads for current - month contract - spot and next - month contract - spot are 275 and 190 respectively; theoretical spreads are 205 and 316 [5]

| | 最新 | 日变化 | 周变化 | 月变化 | 年变化 | 最新 | 日变化 | 周变化 | 月变化 | 年变化 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 柳林主焦 | 1453.00 | 0.00 | 49.00 | 4.00 | -3.13% Peak Downs | 205.50 | 0.00 | -3.00 | 18.50 | -5.00 | | 原煤口岸库提价 | 936.00 | -18.00 | -104.00 | 29.00 | -20.68% Goonyella | 208.80 | 0.00 | -2.70 | 20.80 | -1.70 | | 沙河驿蒙5# | 1380.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 160.00 | -19.77% 盘面05 | 1199.00 | -34.00 | -60.50 | -5.50 | -9.17% | | 安泽主焦 | 1470.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 90.00 | -16.00% 盘面09 | 1033.00 | -15 ...

Report Summary 1) Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. 2) Core View of the Report The LPG market is expected to continue its weak and volatile consolidation. The supply has increased while the demand is weak, causing the spot price to decline. However, the PG futures market has rebounded due to the improvement in the international spot market and the relatively low valuation of the futures, which has improved market sentiment. The fundamentals show a decrease in port inventory and a slight increase in chemical demand, but the combustion demand remains weak, although it is gradually coming to an end [1]. 3) Summary According to Relevant Catalogs a) Daily Changes - On Wednesday, the cheapest deliverable was East China civil gas at 4390. FEI increased while CP decreased. PP increased, and the production profit of PP made from FEI and CP slightly strengthened, with CP having a lower production cost than FEI. The PG futures market strengthened, and the 09 - 10 spread was -464 (-15). The US - Far East arbitrage window was closed [1]. - The supply increased and demand was weak, causing the spot price to decline. The cheapest deliverable was East China civil gas at 4410. The PG futures market rebounded due to the improvement in the international spot market and the relatively low valuation of the futures, which improved market sentiment. The basis strengthened to 539 (+67). The 9 - 10 spread was -471 (+9). The number of registered warehouse receipts was 12,888 lots (+2,709) [1]. b) Weekly Outlook - The international market was volatile, and freight rates were generally volatile at a high level. The waiting time for VLGCs at the Panama Canal decreased. The discounts of FEI and CP strengthened significantly, and the spread between PG - CP reached 8.9 (+12); PG - FEI reached 20.7 (+12). The change in FEI - MOPJ was small, at 39.6 (-1.6), and the naphtha crack spread slightly strengthened [1]. - The spot profit of PDH - made PP weakened, and the paper profit fluctuated. The production margins of alkylated oil and MTBE decreased. Fundamentally, the port unloading volume decreased, chemical demand slightly increased, and port inventory decreased by 2.06%. The refinery product volume decreased by 1.68% mainly because some refineries increased self - use and Xintai's gas fractionation unit was under maintenance. However, due to weak combustion demand, refinery inventory increased by 0.07%. The PDH operating rate was 76.33% (+2.49 pct), and the combustion demand was still weak but gradually coming to an end [1].

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided Group 2: Core Views of the Report - Corn prices will continue to oscillate with an upper limit and a lower support in the short - term, and are expected to decline under pressure in the long - term. Starch prices are expected to oscillate weakly in the short - term and remain bearish in the long - term [3] - The international sugar price is under pressure. The domestic sugar price has limited upward movement due to the approaching arrival of imported sugar. [5][6] - Cotton prices have entered an oscillatory phase, and their downward space is limited. Attention should be paid to changes in the demand side. [9] - Egg prices may trigger more old chicken culling if the rebound in late August is less than expected. [14] - Apple production in the new season is expected to be similar to last year. Consumption is in the off - season, and the inventory is at a five - year low. [22] - Pig prices are under medium - term supply pressure, with long - term policy - related expectations. Short - term spot prices are weakly oscillating. [22] Group 3: Summary by Product Corn and Starch - **Price Data**: From August 14 to 20, the price in Changchun remained unchanged, while prices in other regions showed various changes. The basis, trade profit, and other indicators also changed. For starch, the processing profit increased by 3 [2] - **Market Analysis**: This week, 395,000 tons of imported corn were auctioned, with 67,000 tons sold. In the short - term, corn prices will oscillate. In the long - term, they may decline. Starch prices are expected to oscillate weakly in the short - term and remain bearish in the long - term [3] Sugar - **Price Data**: From August 14 to 20, the spot prices in Liuzhou and Nanning decreased by 10, the basis decreased by 25, and the import profit decreased by 81. The number of warehouse receipts decreased by 242 [5] - **Market Analysis**: The international sugar price is under pressure due to Brazil's high - pressure supply. The domestic sugar price has limited upward movement due to the approaching arrival of imported sugar [5][6] Cotton and Cotton Yarn - **Price Data**: From August 14 to 20, the price of 3128 cotton decreased by 45, and the number of warehouse receipts + forecasts decreased by 141. The 32S spinning profit increased by 47 [9] - **Market Analysis**: Cotton prices have entered an oscillatory phase. If there are no major macro - risk events, the downward space is limited. Attention should be paid to the demand side [9] Eggs - **Price Data**: From August 14 to 20, the price in Hubei decreased by 0.09, the basis decreased by 30, the price of yellow - feather broilers decreased by 0.10, and the price of pigs decreased by 0.17 [14] - **Market Analysis**: Egg prices rebounded rapidly in July but declined in early August due to supply and demand factors. If the rebound in late August is less than expected, more old chickens may be culled [14] Apples - **Price Data**: From August 14 to 20, the price of Shandong 80 first - and second - grade apples remained unchanged, and the national inventory increased by 57,000 tons [21][22] - **Market Analysis**: The new - season apples are in the growth stage. The national production is expected to be similar to last year. Consumption is in the off - season, and the inventory is at a five - year low [22] Pigs - **Price Data**: From August 14 to 20, the price in Hubei Xiangyang increased by 0.15, and the basis increased by 125 [22] - **Market Analysis**: Pig prices are under medium - term supply pressure, with long - term policy - related expectations. Short - term spot prices are weakly oscillating [22]

Group 1: Coal Price Information - The latest price of Qinhuangdao 5500 is 702.0, with daily, weekly, monthly, and annual changes of 0.0, 8.0, 58.0, and -143.0 respectively [1] - The latest price of Qinhuangdao 5000 is 633.0, with daily, weekly, monthly, and annual changes of 0.0, 3.0, 52.0, and -107.0 respectively [1] - The latest price of Guangzhou Port 5500 is 765.0, with daily, weekly, monthly, and annual changes of 0.0, 5.0, 35.0, and -140.0 respectively [1] - The latest price of Ordos 5500 is 490.0, with daily, weekly, monthly, and annual changes of 0.0, 5.0, 65.0, and -140.0 respectively [1] - The latest price of Datong 5500 is 560.0, with daily, weekly, monthly, and annual changes of 0.0, 5.0, 60.0, and -130.0 respectively [1] - The latest price of Yulin 6000 is 622.0, with daily, weekly, monthly, and annual changes of 0.0, 10.0, 60.0, and -173.0 respectively [1] - The latest price of Yulin 6200 is 650.0, with daily, weekly, monthly, and annual changes of 0.0, 10.0, 60.0, and -171.0 respectively [1] Group 2: Terminal and Inventory Information - The available days for 25 provincial terminals is 19.0, with daily, weekly, monthly, and annual changes of -0.6, -0.9, -1.9, and 1.4 respectively [1] - The coal supply for 25 provincial terminals is 603.5, with daily, weekly, monthly, and annual changes of -1.8, -5.0, -36.5, and -19.3 respectively [1] - The inventory of 25 provincial terminals is 12017.7, with daily, weekly, monthly, and annual changes of -29.4, -802.8, -1486.8, and 500.2 respectively [1] - The daily consumption of 25 provincial terminals is 632.1, with daily, weekly, monthly, and annual changes of 17.5, -11.1, -13.9, and -22.3 respectively [1] - The northern port inventory is 2330.0, with daily, weekly, monthly, and annual changes of -11.0, -33.0, -394.0, and -73.2 respectively [1] Group 3: Port Operation Information - The number of ships at northern anchorages is 67.0, with daily, weekly, monthly, and annual changes of -12.0, -8.0, -53.0, and 8.0 respectively [1] - The northern port inbound volume is 149.7, with daily, weekly, monthly, and annual changes of -7.4, 11.0, -17.4, and -2.4 respectively [1] - The northern port throughput is 156.6, with daily, weekly, monthly, and annual changes of 1.4, 3.0, -3.2, and -3.4 respectively [1] Group 4: Shipping Index and Freight Information - The CBCFI shipping index is 836.4, with daily, weekly, monthly, and annual changes of -20.6, 2.5, 112.0, and 260.8 respectively [1] - The freight from Qinhuangdao to Shanghai (4 - 5DWT) is 32.8, with daily, weekly, monthly, and annual changes of -1.1, -0.2, 4.7, and 11.4 respectively [1] - The freight from Qinhuangdao to Guangzhou (5 - 6DWT) is 48.7, with daily, weekly, monthly, and annual changes of -0.5, 0.8, 6.7, and 14.2 respectively [1]

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating There is no information in the provided content regarding the report industry investment rating. 2. Core Viewpoint There is no clear core viewpoint explicitly stated in the given content. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Futures Contract Prices - The prices of various BU futures contracts (BU主力合约, BU06, BU09, BU12, BU03) generally showed a downward trend from July 22 to August 20. For example, the BU主力合约 decreased from 3609 on July 22 to 3454 on August 20, a decrease of 52 [4]. Trading Volume and Open Interest - The trading volume on August 20 was 222,537, showing an increase of 5,190 compared to the previous day and 53,888 compared to the previous week. - The open interest on August 20 was 429,967, with an increase of 1,608 compared to the previous day and a decrease of 16,607 compared to the previous week [4]. Spot Market Prices - The spot market prices of asphalt in different regions (Shandong, East China, South China, North China, Northeast China) also had different degrees of change. For instance, the Shandong market price decreased from 3,845 on July 22 to 3,530 on August 20, a decrease of 120 [4]. Basis and Calendar Spreads - The basis and calendar spreads of different regions and contracts showed various changes. For example, the Shandong - East China basis decreased from -80 on August 12 to -190 on August 20, a decrease of 110 [4]. Crack Spreads and Profits - The asphalt Brent crack spread, asphalt Marrow profit, and the comprehensive profits of different types of refineries (ordinary refineries, Marrow - type refineries) and import profits all had fluctuations. For example, the asphalt Marrow profit increased from -74 on July 22 to -4 on August 20, an increase of 38 [4]. Related Prices - The prices of related products such as Brent crude oil, gasoline, diesel, and residual oil in the Shandong market also changed. For example, the Brent crude oil price decreased from 69.2 on July 22 to 65.8 on August 20, a decrease of 0.8 [4].

废钢早报 研究中心黑色团队 2025/08/21 华东 स्क 中部 东北 日期 华南 2025/08/145 | 2258 2322 原点 2085 2270 2296 2288 2025/08/15 2255 2318 2082 2260 2287 2025/08/18 2254 2319 2074 2256 2025/08/19 2245 2328 2072 2249 2282 沙钢重三价格 (含税) ● 2022 ● 2023 ● 2024 ● 2025 4,200元/吨 3,900 3,600 3,300 3,000 2,700 2,400 2,100 1月 2月 3月 4月 5月 6月 7月 8月 9月 10月11月12月 长流程日耗 镇江鸿泰剪切料价格（不含税） ● 2022 ↓ 2023 ↓ 2024 ↓ 2025 3,600元/吨 3,300 3,000 2,700 2,400 2,100 1,800 品因H 1月 2月 3月 4月 5月 6月 7月 8月 9月 10月11月12月 短流程日耗 ● 2022 ● 2023 ● 2024 ● 2025 唱启剧H lle 12 10 8 6 4 ...

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided 2. Core Viewpoints - No information provided 3. Summary by Relevant Catalog Spot Market - **Australian mainstream iron ore**: Newman powder was at 764, down 1 from the previous day and 17 from the previous week; PB powder was at 767, down 1 and 17 respectively; Mac powder was at 755, unchanged from the previous day and down 19 from the previous week; Jinbuba powder was at 741, unchanged and down 17; Mixed powder was at 700, unchanged and down 8; Super special powder was at 648, unchanged and down 10; Carajás powder was at 878, up 7 and down 10; Roy Hill powder was at 737, down 1 and 17; KUMBA powder was at 826, down 1 and 18 [1] - **Brazilian mainstream iron ore**: Brazilian mixed powder was at 806, down 3 and 16; Brazilian coarse IOC6 was at 770, up 10 and down 4; Brazilian coarse SSFG was at 775, up 10 and down 4 [1] - **Other varieties**: Ukrainian concentrate was at 873, unchanged and down 15; 61% Indian powder was at 730, unchanged and down 17; Karara concentrate was at 873, unchanged and down 15; 57% Indian powder was at 593, unchanged and down 10; Atlas powder was at 695, unchanged and down 8 [1] - **Domestic ore**: Tangshan iron concentrate was at 977, unchanged and down 6 [1] Futures Market - **DCE contracts**: i2601 was at 769.0, down 2.0 from the previous day and 26.0 from the previous week; i2605 was at 747.0, down 2.5 and 27.0; i2509 was at 786.0, down 3.0 and 19.5 [1] - **SGX contracts**: FE01 was at 100.49, down 0.05 and 3.45; FE05 was at 98.06, down 0.05 and 3.70; FE09 was at 101.05, down 0.38 and 3.38 [1]

Key Points of the Report Core Concepts - The implied volatility index of financial options reflects the 30 - day implied volatility trend as of the previous trading day. The implied volatility index of commodity options is obtained by weighting the implied volatilities of the two - point - up and - down options at the at - the - money strike price of the main contract month, reflecting the implied volatility change trend of the main contract [2]. - The difference between the implied volatility index and historical volatility shows the relative level of implied volatility to historical volatility. A larger difference means the implied volatility is relatively higher, and a smaller difference means it is relatively lower [2]. - The implied volatility quantile represents the current implied volatility level of a variety in history. A high quantile means the current implied volatility is high, and a low quantile means it is low. The volatility spread is the implied volatility index minus the historical volatility [4]. Implied Volatility and Historical Volatility Data - The report presents the implied volatility (IV), historical volatility (HV), and their differences (IV - HV) of various options, including 300 Index, 50ETF, 1000 Index, 500ETF, and many commodity options such as soybean meal, corn, sugar, cotton, etc. [3] Implied Volatility Quantile and Volatility Spread Quantile Ranking - The report shows the ranking of implied volatility quantiles and historical volatility quantiles of different varieties, such as 300 Index, PVC, PTA, corn, etc. [4][5]

Report Summary 1) Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. 2) Core Viewpoints No clear core viewpoints presented in the given content. 3) Summary by Related Catalogs Price and Profit - The report shows the price changes of various steel products from August 13 to August 19, 2025. For example, Beijing's rebar price decreased from 3310 to 3240, a change of -20; Shanghai's rebar fell from 3340 to 3270, a change of -30 [1]. Basis and Spread No relevant information provided. Production and Inventory No relevant information provided.