部或部分材料、内容。对可能因互联网软硬件设备故障或失灵、或因不可抗力造成的全部或部分信息中断、延迟、遗漏、误导或造成资料传输 或储存上的错误、或遭第三人侵入系统篡改或伪造变造资料等，我们均不承担任何责任。 台H 研究中心能化团队 2025/12/24 -P G 内院CFR华 CP预测合 山东烷基 丙烷CIF日本 纸面进口利润 日期 华南液化气 山东液化气 山东醚后碳四 主力基差 华东液化气 同价 化油 E 2025/12/17 4398 523 -254 4490 4410 504 4600 7110 586 282 2025/12/18 4398 4380 . 7130 4500 576 203 500 4610 -165 389 2025/12/19 4398 4380 4610 7150 4500 573 504 497 -142 399 2025/12/22 4480 4388 4370 580 536 202 4580 7150 -213 355 2025/12/23 4377 4370 4580 444 4475 550 7180 l l - n Blog RH 日度变化 -11 0( 14 0 ...

纸浆早报 研究中心能化团队 2025/12/24 SP主力合约收盘价： 5620.00 | 日期 | 2025/12/23 | 2025/12/22 | 2025/12/19 | 2025/12/18 | 2025/12/17 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 主力合约收盘价 | 5620.00 | 5622.00 | 5506.00 | 5500.00 | 5506.00 | | 折美元价 | 698.78 | 698.09 | 683.23 | 682.39 | 682.74 | | 距上一日涨跌 | -0.03557% | 2.10679% | 0.10909% | -0.10897% | 0.69495% | | 山东银星基差 | -30 | -17 | 19 | 40 | 34 | | 江浙沪银星基差 | -55 | -47 | 29 | 40 | 34 | 以13%增值税计算 | 产地 | 品牌 | 价格说明 | 港口美元价格 | 山东地区人民币价格 | 进口利润 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | ...

Price Performance - The latest price of London Platinum is 2083.00, with a change of 127.00 [2] - The latest price of London Palladium is 1773.00, with a change of 90.00 [2] - The latest price of WTI Crude Oil is 58.38, with a change of 0.37 [2] - The latest price of LME Copper is 11932.00, with a change of -37.00 [2] - The latest price of the US Dollar Index is 97.91, with a change of -0.35 [2] - The latest price of EUR/USD is 1.18, with a change of 0.00 [2] - The latest price of GBP/USD is 1.35, with a change of 0.01 [2] - The latest price of USD/JPY is 156.26, with a change of -0.77 [2] Trading Data - The latest inventory of COMEX Silver is 14023.94, with a change of 7.36 [3] - The latest inventory of SHFE Silver is 899.66, with a change of -1.81 [3] - The latest Gold ETF holdings are 1064.56, with no change [3] - The latest Silver ETF holdings are 16503.37, with a change of -95.88 [3] - The deferred fee payment direction of SGE Gold is 1, with no change [3] - The deferred fee payment direction of SGE Silver is 2, with no change [3]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - For copper, maintain a buy-on-dip strategy with an expected price range of $10,800 - $12,000 in December due to continued overseas liquidity easing [1]. - For aluminum, despite weak domestic demand, falling aluminum ingot inventories support prices in the short - term, and prices are expected to stay in a volatile range [1]. - For zinc, the domestic fundamentals are weak, but there may be a phased reduction in supply at the end of the year. It is recommended to wait and see on a single - side basis, focus on reverse arbitrage opportunities between domestic and overseas markets, and positive arbitrage opportunities for 01 - 03 and 03 - 05 spreads [5]. - For nickel, the short - term fundamentals are weak, but the policy side has a motivation to support prices, leading to intensified policy - fundamentals game [9]. - For stainless steel, the fundamentals remain weak, but short - term price rebounds are driven by news of quota cuts from the Indonesian Nickel Association [11]. - For lead, the price is expected to oscillate between 16,700 - 17,100 yuan next week. Attention should be paid to the risk of low warehouse receipts [14]. - For tin, in the short - term, there is a risk of marginal over - supply, and the fundamentals show signs of weakening. In the long - term, demand determines the upside, and it can be a multi - allocation for non - ferrous metals in the first quarter [17]. - For industrial silicon, in the short - term, the price is expected to fluctuate with costs. In the long - term, the over - capacity is still significant [18]. - For lithium carbonate, in the short - term, supply and demand are both strong, but demand shows signs of weakening. The price is expected to oscillate at the cycle bottom [22]. 3. Summary by Metal Copper - **Price and Inventory Changes**: From December 17 - 23, the Shanghai copper spot price decreased by 10, the waste - refined copper spread decreased by 504, and the LME inventory increased by 825 [1]. - **Market Outlook**: The long - term TC for copper concentrate has little impact on the market. The domestic market is expected to see a small inventory build - up until the Spring Festival, with suppressed spreads and import profit windows. Overseas liquidity is loose, and the price is expected to range from $10,800 - $12,000 in December [1]. Aluminum - **Price and Inventory Changes**: From December 17 - 23, the Shanghai aluminum ingot price decreased by 60, and the domestic alumina price decreased by 7 [1]. - **Market Outlook**: In November, primary aluminum imports declined, and exports increased. Domestic apparent demand is weak. Although domestic demand is poor, falling inventories support prices in the short - term, and prices are expected to stay in a volatile range [1]. Zinc - **Price and Inventory Changes**: From December 17 - 23, the Shanghai zinc ingot price decreased by 60, and the LME zinc inventory decreased by 275 [3][4]. - **Market Outlook**: The LME zinc 0 - 3M premium declined. Supply - side TC is falling, and there are production cuts due to smelter maintenance. Demand is seasonally weak domestically and varies overseas. The price may not fall deeply, and different arbitrage opportunities are recommended [5]. Nickel - **Price and Inventory Changes**: From December 17 - 23, the Shanghai nickel spot price increased by 3,700, and the LME inventory increased by 216 [9]. - **Market Outlook**: Pure nickel production decreased slightly, demand is weak, and inventories are rising at home and abroad. The Indonesian Nickel Association's quota plan adds policy - fundamentals game [9]. Stainless Steel - **Price and Inventory Changes**: From December 17 - 23, the 304 cold - rolled coil price increased by 100, and the waste stainless steel price increased by 70 [11]. - **Market Outlook**: Steel mills' production is high, demand is mainly for rigid needs, costs are stable, and inventories are high. The Indonesian policy supports prices, leading to short - term price rebounds [11]. Lead - **Price and Inventory Changes**: From December 17 - 23, the lead price decreased slightly, and the LME inventory decreased by 2,850 [12][14]. - **Market Outlook**: Primary production may decrease due to maintenance, and secondary production has recovered. Demand is expected to weaken. The price is expected to oscillate between 16,700 - 17,100 yuan, and attention should be paid to low - warehouse - receipt risks [14]. Tin - **Price and Inventory Changes**: From December 17 - 23, the tin price rose rapidly, and the LME inventory increased by 50 [17]. - **Market Outlook**: In the short - term, there is a risk of over - supply, and the fundamentals are weakening. In the long - term, demand determines the upside, and it can be a multi - allocation for non - ferrous metals in the first quarter [17]. Industrial Silicon - **Price and Inventory Changes**: From December 17 - 23, the 421 Yunnan basis decreased by 185, and the warehouse receipt quantity increased by 156 [18]. - **Market Outlook**: In the short - term, supply and demand are balanced, and the price is expected to fluctuate with costs. In the long - term, over - capacity is still high [18]. Lithium Carbonate - **Price and Inventory Changes**: From December 17 - 23, the SMM electric - carbon price increased by 500, and the warehouse receipt quantity increased by 240 [22]. - **Market Outlook**: In the short - term, supply and demand are strong, but demand is weakening. The 12 - month de - stocking is expected to be 7,000 - 7,500 tons. The price is expected to oscillate at the cycle bottom [22].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided in the content 2. Core Viewpoints - No information provided in the content 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Price - **Silicon Iron**: On December 24, 2025, the latest price of Ningxia 72 silicon iron was 5250, with a daily change of 30 and a weekly change of 100; Inner Mongolia 72 was 5270, with a daily change of 20 and a weekly change of 70; Qinghai 72 was 5200, unchanged daily and with a weekly increase of 50; Shaanxi 72 was 5220, with a daily change of 20 and a weekly change of 120; Shaanxi 75 was 5650, unchanged daily and with a weekly increase of 50. The export price of Tianjin 72 was 1020, and Tianjin 75 was 1070, both unchanged [2] - **Silicon Manganese**: On December 24, 2025, the latest price of Inner Mongolia 6517 silicon manganese was 5570, with a daily change of 20 and a weekly change of 30; Ningxia 6517 was 5540, unchanged daily and with a weekly increase of 50; Guangxi 6517 was 5670, with a daily change of 20 and a weekly change of 70; Guizhou 6517 was 5620, with a daily change of 20 and a weekly change of 70; Yunnan 6517 was 5620, with a daily change of 20 and a weekly change of 70; Guangxi 6014 was 5050, unchanged daily and with a weekly increase of 50 [2] Supply - **Silicon Iron**: The production data of 136 silicon - iron enterprises in China from 2021 - 2025 are presented, including monthly and weekly production, and the capacity utilization rates in Inner Mongolia, Ningxia, and Shaanxi [5] - **Silicon Manganese**: The weekly production of silicon manganese in China from 2021 - 2025 is shown, along with the procurement price and quantity of Hebei Iron and Steel Group [7] Demand - **Silicon Iron**: The demand - related data include the estimated and actual production of crude steel in China, the production of stainless - steel crude steel, the procurement volume and price of Hebei Iron and Steel Group, and the export volume of silicon iron [5] - **Silicon Manganese**: The demand - related data include the estimated production of crude steel in China, the demand in China, and the export volume [8] Inventory - **Silicon Iron**: It shows the inventory data of 60 sample enterprises in China, Ningxia, Inner Mongolia, and Shaanxi, as well as the warehouse receipt quantity, effective forecast, and inventory average available days in different regions [6] - **Silicon Manganese**: It presents the warehouse receipt quantity, effective forecast, total inventory, inventory average available days in China, and the inventory of 63 sample enterprises [8] Cost and Profit - **Silicon Iron**: The cost - related data involve electricity prices in different regions, the market price of semi - coke, and the production cost in Ningxia and Inner Mongolia. The profit data include the profit of 75 - grade silicon - iron export, the profit of Ningxia silicon - iron converted to the main contract, and the spot profit [6] - **Silicon Manganese**: The profit data include the profit in Inner Mongolia, Guangxi, the northern and southern regions, and the profit of Guangxi silicon - manganese converted to the main contract [8]

Report Summary 1) Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content 2) Core View - Not provided in the given content 3) Summary by Related Catalogs Price and Profit - The report presents the spot prices of various steel products in different regions from December 17 to December 23, 2025. For example, the price of Beijing's threaded steel remained at 3140 on December 23, with no change compared to the previous day; the price of Shanghai's hot - rolled coil was 3260 on December 23, also unchanged from the previous day. In contrast, the price of Shanghai's cold - rolled coil increased by 60 to 3800 on December 23 [1] Basis and Spread - Not provided in the given content Output and Inventory - Not provided in the given content

甲醇聚烯烃早报 研究中心能化团队 2025/12/24 甲 醇 日期 动力煤期 货 江苏现货 华南现货 鲁南折盘 面 西南折盘面 河北折盘 面 西北折盘 面 CFR中国 CFR东南 亚 进口利润 主力基差 盘面MTO 利润 2025/12/1 7 801 2130 2095 2440 2485 2385 2550 249 318 -5 25 - 2025/12/1 8 801 2168 2120 2440 2485 2385 2525 251 318 0 20 - 2025/12/1 9 801 2157 2115 2435 2485 2385 2508 249 320 1 20 - 2025/12/2 2 801 2142 2115 2430 2485 2385 2500 248 320 11 20 - 2025/12/2 3 801 2137 2115 2420 2485 2355 2505 - - - 20 - 日度变化 0 -5 0 -10 0 -30 5 - - - 0 - 伊朗装置开始停车，港口内地共振反弹，基差小幅走强，卸货慢，港口连续两周去库，浮仓很多，预计后期回归 累库，11月伊朗发 运11 ...

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Group 1: Report Summary - The report is a non - ferrous metals arbitrage morning report from the non - ferrous metals team of the research center on December 24, 2025 [1] Group 2: Cross - market Arbitrage Copper - Spot price in China is 93,480, LME spot price is 11,945, and the spot price ratio is 7.84; three - month price in China is 94,000, LME three - month price is 11,932, and the three - month price ratio is 7.87. The equilibrium ratio for spot import is 7.99, with a profit of - 1909.24, and the profit for spot export is 1,043.62 [1] Zinc - Spot price in China is 23,090, LME spot price is 3,057, and the spot price ratio is 7.55; three - month price in China is 23,125, LME three - month price is 3,087, and the three - month price ratio is 5.50. The equilibrium ratio for spot import is 8.41, with a profit of - 2631.81 [1] Aluminum - Spot price in China is 21,880, LME spot price is 2,910, and the spot price ratio is 7.51; three - month price in China is 22,255, LME three - month price is 2,946, and the three - month price ratio is 7.50. The equilibrium ratio for spot import is 8.37, with a profit of - 2481.66 [3] Nickel - Spot price in China is 124,550, LME spot price is 15,259, and the price ratio is 8.16. The equilibrium ratio for spot import is 8.08, with a profit of - 43.09 [3] Lead - Spot price in China is 16,875, LME spot price is 1,935, and the spot price ratio is 8.72; three - month price in China is 16,980, LME three - month price is 1,978, and the three - month price ratio is 11.63. The equilibrium ratio for spot import is 8.66, with a profit of 123.50 [5] Group 3: Cross - period Arbitrage Copper - The spreads between the next - month and the spot - month, three - month and the spot - month, four - month and the spot - month, five - month and the spot - month are - 180, - 110, - 60, and - 20 respectively, while the theoretical spreads are 573, 1043, 1523, and 2002 respectively [6] Zinc - The spreads are 5, 40, 65, and 75 respectively, and the theoretical spreads are 218, 343, 467, and 592 respectively [6] Aluminum - The spreads are 45, 105, 135, and 170 respectively, and the theoretical spreads are 222, 345, 467, and 590 respectively [6] Lead - The spreads are 100, 85, 95, and 100 respectively, and the theoretical spreads are 209, 315, 420, and 526 respectively [6] Nickel - The spreads between the next - month and the spot - month, three - month and the spot - month, four - month and the spot - month, five - month and the spot - month are 2180, 2380, 2620, and 2840 respectively [6] Tin - The spread between the 5 - month and 1 - month contracts is 970, and the theoretical spread is 7064 [6] Group 4: Spot - futures Arbitrage Copper - The spreads between the current - month contract and the spot, next - month contract and the spot are 655 and 475 respectively, and the theoretical spreads are 540 and 1030 respectively [6] Zinc - The spreads are - 5 and 0 respectively, and the theoretical spreads are 164 and 298 (or 206 and 343) respectively [6][7] Lead - The spreads are 20 and 120 respectively, and the theoretical spreads are 158 and 271 respectively [7] Group 5: Cross - variety Arbitrage - The ratios of copper/zinc, copper/aluminum, copper/lead, aluminum/zinc, aluminum/lead, lead/zinc for Shanghai (three - consecutive contracts) are 4.06, 4.22, 5.54, 0.96, 1.31, 0.73 respectively, and for LME (three - consecutive contracts) are 3.90, 4.10, 6.08, 0.95, 1.48, 0.64 respectively [7]

| 玉米/淀粉 | | | | 玉米 | | | | | 淀粉 | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 日期 | 长春 | 锦州 | 潍坊 | 蛇口 | 基差 | 贸易利润 进口盈亏 | 黑龙江 | 潍坊 | 基差 | 加工利润 | | 2025/12/17 | 2160 | 2230 | 2250 | 2410 | 24 | 30 251 | 2750 | 2800 | 193 | -14 | | 2025/12/18 | 2160 | 2240 | 2250 | 2410 | 50 | 20 243 | 2750 | 2800 | 206 | -14 | | 2025/12/19 | 2160 | 2240 | 2250 | 2410 | 48 | 20 228 | 2750 | 2800 | 203 | -14 | | 2025/12/22 | 2160 | 2230 | 2250 | 2410 | 38 | 30 228 | 2750 | 2800 | 208 | -14 | | 2025/12 ...