Group 1: Report Information - Report Title: Glass and Soda Ash Morning Report [1] - Date: November 25, 2025 [2] - Research Team: Energy and Chemicals Team of the Research Center [2] Group 2: Glass Market Price Changes - From November 17 to November 24, the prices of 5mm glass in various regions showed different degrees of decline. For example, the price of 5mm glass from Shahe Anquan decreased from 1070.0 to 1044.0, a decrease of 26.0; the price of 5mm glass from Shahe Great Wall decreased from 1053.0 to 1019.0, a decrease of 34.0 [2]. - The prices of FG05, FG01 contracts and FG 1 - 5 spread also changed. The FG05 contract price decreased from 1165.0 to 1158.0, a decrease of 7.0; the FG01 contract price decreased from 1029.0 to 1013.0, a decrease of 16.0; the FG 1 - 5 spread decreased from -136.0 to -145.0, a decrease of 9.0 [2]. Profit Changes - The profits of glass production in different regions and using different energy sources also changed. For example, the profit of North China coal - fired glass decreased from 102.0 to 73.3, a decrease of 28.8; the profit of North China natural gas glass in the 05FG contract increased from -223.6 to -209.5, an increase of 14.1 [2]. Market Conditions - The production and sales of glass factories in Shahe strengthened, but the low - price sales of Shahe traders were around 1010, and the shipment was average. The transaction of glass factories in Hubei Province improved, with the price around 990. The transaction of Hubei's mid - stream futures and spot weakened [2]. - The production and sales rates of glass in different regions were: 152 in Shahe, 115 in Hubei, 110 in East China, and 103 in South China [2]. Group 3: Soda Ash Market Price Changes - From November 17 to November 24, the prices of heavy soda ash in different regions showed different trends. The price of Shahe heavy soda ash decreased from 1180.0 to 1150.0, a decrease of 30.0; the price of South China heavy soda ash remained unchanged at 1350.0 [2]. - The prices of SA05, SA01, SA09 contracts and SA01 - SA05 spread also changed. The SA05 contract price decreased from 1304.0 to 1249.0, a decrease of 55.0; the SA01 contract price decreased from 1231.0 to 1183.0, a decrease of 48.0; the SA01 - SA05 spread decreased from -73.0 to -66.0, a decrease of 7.0 [2]. Profit Changes - The profits of soda ash production in different regions and using different production methods also changed. For example, the profit of North China ammonia - soda method decreased from -288.4 to -313.4, a decrease of 25.0; the profit of North China combined - soda method decreased from -415.7 to -426.6, a decrease of 10.8 [2]. Market Conditions - The spot price of heavy soda ash in Hebei delivery warehouses was around 1130, and the price delivered to Shahe was around 1150 [2]. - The upstream inventory of the soda ash industry continued to decline [2].

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. 2. Core Viewpoints - This week, the high - sulfur cracking in Singapore weakened rapidly, the monthly spread ran at a historical low, the basis weakened and then fluctuated at a historical low, the 380 basis weakened and then rebounded on Friday, and the European HSFO cracking dropped rapidly. The EW continued to strengthen this week. The 0.5% cracking in Singapore weakened oscillatingly this week, the monthly spread weakened oscillatingly, and the basis strengthened slightly [6]. - In terms of inventory, global residue inventory increased, Singapore residue inventory decreased, high - sulfur floating storage increased significantly, ARA residue inventory increased, Fujairah residue inventory decreased slightly, high - sulfur floating storage decreased slightly, and EIA residue inventory increased. With the strengthening expectation of Russia - Ukraine peace talks, the prices of gasoline and diesel in the external market dropped significantly, and the price difference between low - sulfur fuel oil and diesel rebounded this week. After the fire at the Al Zour refinery on October 21st, it stopped production, and the Singapore basis has started to rebound recently [7]. - As global residue enters the inventory accumulation cycle, the external cracking is expected to be supported by the decline in crude oil prices, showing a short - term oscillating pattern. For FU01, maintain a high - short idea for both domestic and foreign markets, and consider arranging 1 - 2 reverse spreads. The short - term downward space for low - sulfur fuel oil is limited [7]. 3. Data Summary Rotterdam Fuel Oil Swap Data | Type | 2025/11/17 | 2025/11/18 | 2025/11/19 | 2025/11/20 | 2025/11/21 | Change | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | Rotterdam 3.5% HSF O Swap M1 | 366.33 | 359.79 | 351.60 | 354.27 | 342.52 | -11.75 | | Rotterdam 0.5% VLS FO Swap M1 | 415.16 | 411.23 | 401.83 | 401.58 | 392.05 | -9.53 | | Rotterdam HSFO - Brent M1 | -6.17 | -6.97 | -7.51 | -7.11 | -7.70 | -0.59 | | Rotterdam 10ppm Gasoil Swap M1 | 707.49 | 732.42 | 724.68 | 705.27 | 674.04 | -31.23 | | Rotterdam VLSFO - Gasoil M1 | -292.33 | -321.19 | -322.85 | -303.69 | -281.99 | 21.70 | | LGO - Brent M1 | 31.67 | 33.67 | 34.17 | 31.62 | 28.61 | -3.01 | | Rotterdam VLSFO - HSFO M1 | 48.83 | 51.44 | 50.23 | 47.31 | 49.53 | 2.22 | [4] Singapore Fuel Oil Swap Data | Type | 2025/11/17 | 2025/11/18 | 2025/11/19 | 2025/11/20 | 2025/11/21 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | Singapore 380cst M1 | 362.23 | 355.32 | 354.49 | 352.24 | 348.23 | | Singapore 180cst M1 | 367.79 | 360.57 | 362.97 | 354.70 | 352.69 | | Singapore VLSFO M1 | 449.06 | 448.99 | 446.34 | 437.80 | 427.47 | | Singapore GO M1 | 92.04 | 93.29 | 95.91 | 94.36 | 88.67 | | Singapore 380cst - Brent M1 | -6.48 | -7.45 | -8.02 | -7.92 | -7.06 | | Singapore VLSFO - Gasoil M1 | -232.04 | -241.36 | -263.39 | -260.46 | -228.69 | [4] Singapore Fuel Oil Spot Data | Type | 2025/11/17 | 2025/11/18 | 2025/11/19 | 2025/11/20 | 2025/11/21 | Change | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | FOB 380cst | 356.03 | 348.12 | 348.03 | 345.42 | 343.36 | -2.06 | | FOB VLSFO | 449.02 | 448.99 | 446.12 | 438.34 | 427.46 | -10.88 | | 380 Basis | -5.60 | -6.55 | -5.80 | -5.25 | -4.55 | 0.70 | | High - sulfur Internal - External Spread | 3.6 | 5.9 | 3.2 | 4.5 | 4.7 | 0.2 | | Low - sulfur Internal - External Spread | 8.3 | 8.4 | 7.2 | 5.8 | 6.6 | 0.8 | [5] Domestic FU Data | Type | 2025/11/17 | 2025/11/18 | 2025/11/19 | 2025/11/20 | 2025/11/21 | Change | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | FU 01 | 2593 | 2558 | 2560 | 2517 | 2502 | -15 | | FU 05 | 2632 | 2606 | 2609 | 2565 | 2539 | -26 | | FU 09 | 2602 | 2579 | 2578 | 2541 | 2513 | -28 | | FU 01 - 05 | -39 | -48 | -49 | -48 | -37 | 11 | | FU 05 - 09 | 30 | 27 | 31 | 24 | 26 | 2 | | FU 09 - 01 | 9 | 21 | 18 | 24 | 11 | -13 | [5] Domestic LU Data | Type | 2025/11/17 | 2025/11/18 | 2025/11/19 | 2025/11/20 | 2025/11/21 | Change | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | LU 01 | 3236 | 3247 | 3266 | 3139 | 3078 | -61 | | LU 05 | 3221 | 3223 | 3240 | 3145 | 3085 | -60 | | LU 09 | 3220 | 3232 | 3246 | 3160 | 3119 | -41 | | LU 01 - 05 | 15 | 24 | 26 | -6 | -7 | -1 | | LU 05 - 09 | 1 | -9 | -6 | -15 | -34 | -19 | | LU 09 - 01 | -16 | -15 | -20 | 21 | 41 | 20 | [6]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant information is provided in the text. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The report presents the latest data, daily, weekly, monthly, and year - on - year changes of various indicators in the coke industry on November 24, 2025, including coke prices, production, inventory, and related market indicators [2]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs 3.1 Coke Price - The latest price of Shanxi quasi - first wet quenching coke is 1649.42, with no daily change, a weekly increase of 57.81, a monthly increase of 167.03, and a year - on - year decrease of 7.17% [2]. - The latest price of Hebei quasi - first dry quenching coke is 1900.00, with no daily change, a weekly increase of 55.00, a monthly increase of 165.00, and a year - on - year increase of 11.11% [2]. - The latest price of Shandong quasi - first dry quenching coke is 1825.00, with no daily change, a weekly increase of 55.00, a monthly increase of 165.00, and a year - on - year decrease of 6.65% [2]. - The latest price of Jiangsu quasi - first dry quenching coke is 1865.00, with no daily change, a weekly increase of 55.00, a monthly increase of 165.00, and a year - on - year decrease of 6.52% [2]. - The latest price of Inner Mongolia second - grade coke is 1330.00, with no daily change, a weekly increase of 50.00, a monthly increase of 150.00, and a year - on - year decrease of 8.28% [2]. 3.2 Production and Utilization Rate - The blast furnace operating rate is 88.58, with a weekly decrease of 0.22, a monthly decrease of 1.36, and no year - on - year change [2]. - The daily average iron water output is 236.28, with a weekly decrease of 0.60, a monthly decrease of 3.62, and a year - on - year increase of 0.20% [2]. - The coking capacity utilization rate is 71.10, with a weekly decrease of 0.74, a monthly decrease of 2.89, and a year - on - year decrease of 1.92% [2]. - The daily average coke output is 52.89, with a weekly decrease of 0.23, a monthly increase of 1.68, and a year - on - year increase of 2.74% [2]. 3.3 Inventory - The coking plant inventory is 43.44, with a weekly increase of 7.29, a monthly increase of 5.95, and a year - on - year increase of 7.87% [2]. - The port inventory is 193.00, with a weekly decrease of 5.80, a monthly decrease of 7.09, and a year - on - year increase of 8.93% [2]. - The steel mill inventory is 622.34, with a weekly decrease of 0.06, a monthly decrease of 10.82, and a year - on - year increase of 4.48% [2]. - The steel mill inventory days are 11.05, with a weekly decrease of 0.01, a monthly decrease of 0.02, and a year - on - year decrease of 3.75% [2]. 3.4 Futures Market - The latest price of futures contract 05 is 1789, with a daily increase of 3.00, a weekly decrease of 53.00, a monthly decrease of 81.00, and a year - on - year decrease of 11.00% [2]. - The latest price of futures contract 09 is 1852, with a daily increase of 4.50, a weekly decrease of 64.50, a monthly decrease of 105.00, and a year - on - year decrease of 10.19% [2]. - The latest price of futures contract 01 is 1632, with a daily decrease of 4.00, a weekly decrease of 66.00, a monthly decrease of 99.00, and a year - on - year decrease of 15.72% [2]. - The 05 basis is 175.97, with a daily decrease of 3.00, a weekly increase of 50.85, a monthly increase of 274.58, and a year - on - year increase of 105.53 [2]. - The 09 basis is 109.97, with a daily decrease of 4.50, a weekly increase of 62.35, a monthly increase of 298.58, and a year - on - year increase of 95.03 [2]. - The 01 basis is 332.97, with a daily increase of 4.00, a weekly increase of 63.85, a monthly increase of 292.58, and a year - on - year increase of 189.03 [2]. - The 5 - 9 spread is - 157.00, with a daily decrease of 7.00, a weekly decrease of 13.00, a monthly decrease of 18.00, and a year - on - year decrease of 83.50 [2]. - The 9 - 1 spread is - 66.00, with a daily decrease of 1.50, a weekly increase of 11.50, a monthly increase of 24.00, and a year - on - year decrease of 10.50 [2]. - The 1 - 5 spread is 223.00, with a daily increase of 8.50, a weekly increase of 1.50, a monthly decrease of 6.00, and a year - on - year increase of 94.00 [2].

研究中心黑色团队 2025/11/24 | | 最新 | 日变化 | 周変化 | 月変化 年变化 | | 最新 | 日变化 | 周变化 | 月変化 年变化 | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 柳林主焦 | 1645.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 70.00 | 3.46% Peak Downs | 214.00 | 0.00 | 3.50 | 9.50 | -3.00 | | 原煤口岸库提价 | 1000.00 | 3.00 | -80.00 | -130.00 | -7.41% Goonyella | 213.00 | 0.00 | 3.50 | 8.50 | -4.00 | | 沙河驿蒙5# | 1510.00 | -40.00 | -40.00 | 40.00 | -4.43% 盘面05 | 1193.50 | 10.00 | -76.50 | -124.00 | -10.43% | | 安泽主焦 | 1660.00 | 0.00 | -40.00 | 60.00 | 5.06% 盘面 ...

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纸浆早报 研究中心能化团队 2025/11/24 SP主力合约收盘价： 5228.00 | 日期 | 2025/11/21 | 2025/11/20 | 2025/11/19 | 2025/11/18 | 2025/11/17 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 主力合约收盘价 | 5228.00 | 5298.00 | 5396.00 | 5408.00 | 5474.00 | | 折美元价 | 650.10 | 650.10 | 662.95 | 664.17 | 673.11 | | 距上一日涨跌 | -1.32125% | -1.81616% | -0.22189% | -1.20570% | -0.10949% | | 山东银星基差 | 262 | 212 | 154 | 142 | 76 | | 江浙沪银星基差 | 272 | 212 | 144 | 132 | 76 | 以13%增值税计算 | 产地 | 品牌 | 价格说明 | 港口美元价格 | 山东地区人民币价格 | 进口利润 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | - ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the documents 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - Copper prices fluctuated slightly this week, with downstream consumption remaining weak. The negotiation of long - term contracts between copper producers and downstream consumers is ongoing, and the price around 85,000 yuan may be a psychological price for downstream point - pricing [1]. - Aluminum prices are expected to oscillate in the short term, and the supply - demand situation is expected to be loose in early 2026 and then gradually tighten [1][2]. - Zinc prices oscillated this week. The domestic fundamentals are poor, but there may be a phased reduction in supply at the end of the year, so it is recommended to wait and see for unilateral trading [4]. - Nickel's short - term fundamentals are weak, and there are opportunities for short - selling on rallies due to policy - induced price support motives [5]. - Stainless steel's fundamentals remain weak, and there are opportunities for short - selling on rallies due to policy - induced price support motives [8]. - Lead prices are expected to oscillate narrowly next week, and it is recommended to wait and see the increase in warehouse receipts and the price support of waste batteries [11][12]. - Tin prices' short - term fundamentals are acceptable, and it is recommended to wait and see; in the long - term, it is recommended to hold near the cost line or use it as a long - position allocation in non - ferrous metals [15]. - Industrial silicon's supply - demand is expected to be in a balanced and slightly loose state in Q4, and prices are expected to oscillate [18]. - The price of lithium carbonate has high price elasticity after supply - side disturbances, and the turning point of the long - term pattern may occur in the next 1 - 2 years [20]. 3. Summary by Metal Copper - **Price Trend**: Copper prices first rose and then declined slightly this week [1]. - **Supply and Demand**: Downstream consumption is weak, and the negotiation of long - term contracts is ongoing. LME copper had concentrated warehousing this week, and the scrap - refined copper price difference has widened [1]. - **Outlook**: The price around 85,000 yuan may be a psychological price for downstream point - pricing, and attention should be paid to industrial support at this level [1]. Aluminum - **Price Trend**: Aluminum prices declined this week, and the position decreased [1]. - **Supply and Demand**: Domestic and overseas production capacity is gradually being put into operation. The inventory of aluminum ingots remained flat, and the inventory of aluminum rods and strips decreased slightly. Downstream consumption is acceptable, and the acceptance of high prices has increased [1][2]. - **Outlook**: It is expected to oscillate in the short term, and the supply - demand situation is expected to be loose in early 2026 and then gradually tighten [2]. Zinc - **Price Trend**: Zinc prices oscillated this week [4]. - **Supply and Demand**: The supply of domestic and imported TC is accelerating to decline. The production of Huoshaoyun zinc ingots has started, and most smelters will have maintenance in December. Domestic demand is seasonally weak, and overseas demand in Europe is average. Domestic social inventory oscillates, and overseas LME inventory decreases [4]. - **Strategy**: It is recommended to wait and see for unilateral trading in the short term. Pay attention to reverse arbitrage opportunities and positive arbitrage opportunities for the 01 - 03 spread [4]. Nickel - **Price Trend**: Nickel prices declined this week [5]. - **Supply and Demand**: The supply of pure nickel decreased slightly, demand is weak, and domestic and overseas inventories are increasing [5]. - **Strategy**: Pay attention to opportunities for short - selling on rallies due to policy - induced price support motives [5]. Stainless Steel - **Price Trend**: Stainless steel prices remained stable this week [8]. - **Supply and Demand**: Steel mill production increased slightly in October, demand is mainly for rigid needs, costs are stable, and inventory remains at a high level [8]. - **Strategy**: Pay attention to opportunities for short - selling on rallies due to policy - induced price support motives [8]. Lead - **Price Trend**: Lead prices declined this week [11]. - **Supply and Demand**: Supply is loose, demand is expected to weaken, and social inventory is increasing. The supply - demand mismatch has been alleviated [11][12]. - **Outlook**: It is expected to oscillate narrowly next week in the range of 17,100 - 17,400 yuan, and it is recommended to wait and see [12]. Tin - **Price Trend**: Tin prices rose this week [15]. - **Supply and Demand**: The supply has marginally recovered, overseas production has uncertainties, and demand is mainly rigid [15]. - **Strategy**: It is recommended to wait and see in the short term; in the long - term, it is recommended to hold near the cost line or use it as a long - position allocation in non - ferrous metals [15]. Industrial Silicon - **Price Trend**: Not mentioned explicitly [18]. - **Supply and Demand**: The supply - demand is expected to be in a balanced and slightly loose state in Q4, with some production capacity changes in different regions [18]. - **Outlook**: Prices are expected to oscillate in the short term and cycle at the bottom in the long - term [18]. Lithium Carbonate - **Price Trend**: The price first rose and then fell sharply [20]. - **Supply and Demand**: The raw material supply is tight, the upstream inventory has decreased, the downstream inventory is relatively sufficient, and the transaction is冷清 [20]. - **Outlook**: The price has high price elasticity after supply - side disturbances, and the turning point of the long - term pattern may occur in the next 1 - 2 years [20].

铅：跨市套利跟踪 2025/11/24 易后果，凡据此入市者，我公司不承担任何责任。未经公司授权，不得随意转载、复制、传播本网站中所有研究分析报告、行情分析视频等全 部或部分材料、内容。对可能因互联网软硬件设备故障或失灵、或因不可抗力造成的全部或部分信息中断、延迟、遗漏、误导或造成资料传输 或储存上的错误、或遭第三人侵入系统篡改或伪造变造资料等，我们均不承担任何责任。 国内价格 LME价格 比价 现货 17025 1973 8.66 三月 17170 1995 11.22 均衡比价 盈利 现货进口 8.72 -123.44 有色套利早报 研究中心有色团队 2025/11/24 铜：跨市套利跟踪 2025/11/24 国内价格 LME价格 比价 现货 85800 10677 8.07 三月 85680 10676 8.03 均衡比价 盈利 现货进口 8.07 -632.80 现货出口 75.49 锌：跨市套利跟踪 2025/11/24 国内价格 LME价格 比价 现货 22420 3122 7.18 三月 22400 2987 5.75 均衡比价 盈利 现货进口 8.49 -4097.68 铝：跨市套利跟踪 2 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating There is no information provided regarding the report industry investment rating in the given content. 2. Core Views of the Report - The valuation of contract EC2512 is moderately low, and the open interest has significantly decreased. It will gradually follow the delivery logic [3][15]. - For contract EC2604, it is still recommended to adopt a short - selling strategy on rallies [3][15]. - The overall freight volume between China and Europe this year is good, but it is difficult to prove or disprove the so - called "weak peak season" in the short term. Since the Spring Festival is later this year, it is normal for the peak season to start late. Although the high shipping capacity from December to January may suppress the price increase of contract EC2602, an overly pessimistic outlook is not given. The situation of peak - season cargo collection should be observed. Freight rates usually peak 4 - 5 weeks before the Spring Festival. If the rush - season demand is gradually fulfilled, contract EC2602 may have more upside potential [3][15]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Futures Contracts - **Contract Prices and Changes**: The closing prices of contracts EC2512, EC2602, EC2604, EC2606, EC2608, and EC2610 are 1773.9, 1556.1, 1133.2, 1350.0, 1474.3, and 1099.1 respectively, with daily changes of - 0.10%, - 4.59%, - 2.56%, - 2.25%, - 2.04%, and - 0.89% [2][14]. - **Trading Volume and Open Interest**: The trading volumes of these contracts are 1997, 28701, 2776, 275, 246, and 448 respectively, and the open interests are 7323, 43433, 15961, 1565, 1324, and 2597 respectively, with changes of - 7/ - 37, 1404, - 53, - 10, 100, and 104 [2][14]. - **Month - spreads**: The month - spreads of EC2512 - 2504, EC2512 - 2602, and EC2502 - 2604 are 640.7, 217.8, and 422.9 respectively, with daily changes of 28.0, 7/3.1, and - 45.1, and week - on - week changes of 28.7, 6745, and - 38.8 [2][14]. Spot Market Indicators - **SCHIS**: Published every Monday. As of November 17, 2025, it was 1357.67 points, down 9.78% from the previous period and up 24.50% from the period before the previous one [2][14]. - **SCFI (European Line)**: Published every Friday. As of November 21, 2025, it was 1367 dollars/TEU, down 3.5% from the previous period and up 7.11% from the period before the previous one [2][14]. - **CCFI**: Published every Friday. As of November 21, 2025, it was 1432.96 points, up 2.09% from the previous period and up 2.69% from the period before the previous one [2][14]. - **NCFI**: Published on a certain day (unclear in the text). As of November 21, 2025, it was 951.65 points, down 2.83% from the previous period and up 7.42% from the period before the previous one [2][14]. Recent Spot Situation of European Lines - In Week 48, the overall average was about 2200 US dollars (equivalent to about 1540 points). In Week 49, the rates of the GEMINI and PA alliances were between 2400 - 2500 US dollars, while the OA alliance had not adjusted its price yet, with an average of about 2450 US dollars (equivalent to about 1700 points). It is expected that prices will be raised for December this week, and there will be price hikes in the second half of December [4][16]. Related News On November 24, the Hamas delegation discussed the Gaza situation with the Egyptian side. On the 23rd, according to a statement from Hamas, several high - level members of the organization held talks in Cairo with the head of the Egyptian General Intelligence Service and the main mediator of the Gaza cease - fire agreement, Rashad. Hamas stated that it had fulfilled its commitments in the first phase of the Gaza cease - fire agreement and demanded that Israel stop violating the cease - fire agreement [5][17].

| | | | 钢材早报 | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | | | | | 研究中心黑色团队 2025/11/24 | | | 现 货 价 格 | | | | | | | | 日期 | 北京螺纹 | 上海螺纹 | 成都螺纹 | 西安螺纹 | 广州螺纹 | 武汉螺纹 | | 2025/11/17 | 3230 | 3240 | 3220 | 3270 | 3400 | 3300 | | 2025/11/18 | 3230 | 3250 | 3240 | 3290 | 3420 | 3310 | | 2025/11/19 | 3230 | 3210 | 3240 | 3290 | 3420 | 3310 | | 2025/11/20 | 3230 | 3190 | 3190 | 3240 | 3420 | 3280 | | 2025/11/21 | 3230 | 3230 | 3190 | 3240 | 3420 | 3280 | | 变化 | 0 | 40 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | | 日期 | 天津热卷 | 上海热卷 | ...