投 资 咨 询 编 号 ：Z0020978 研究所 ：林娜 联 系 方 式 ：0371-58620083 电 子 邮 箱 ：linna_qh@ccnew.com 执 业 证 书 编 号 ：F03099603 | 本期观点——螺纹钢、热卷 | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 品种 | 主要逻辑 | 策略建议 | 风险点 | | | 供应：全国螺纹周产量226.21万吨（环比-0.39%，同比+7.85%），全国热卷周产 | | | | | 量324.33万吨（环比+1.78%，同比+1.43%）。 | | | | | 消费：螺纹表观消费242.99万吨（环比+4.19%，同比-13.61%），热卷表观消费 | | | | | 330.65万吨（环比-0.21%，同比-0.84%）。 | 单边： | | | | 库存：螺纹总库存837万吨（环比-1.97%，同比-35.11%），热卷总库存409.9万 | 区间震荡 | | | | 吨（环比-1.52%，同比-5.11%）。 | | | | | 成本：铁水日产大幅回升5.67万吨至236.26万吨，对原料端形成一定补库支撑。 | ...

中原期货研究所 晨会纪要 2025 第（52）期 发布日期：2025-03-25 | 投资咨询业务资格 | | | --- | --- | | 证监发【2014】217 | 号 | | 中原期货研究所 | 0371-58620081 | | 0371-58620083 | | | 公司官方微信 | | 1 公司官方微信 中原期货研究所 | 化工 | 主力合约 | 2025/3/25 | 2025/3/24 | 涨跌 | 涨跌幅/% | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | | 8:00 | 15:00 | | | | | 焦煤 | 1,025.00 | 1,030.00 | -5.0 | -0 485 | | | 焦炭 | 1,600.00 | 1,595.50 | 4.50 | 0.282 | | | 天然橡胶 | 17,135.00 | 17,095.00 | 40.0 | 0.234 | | | 20号胶 | 14,930.00 | 14,845.00 | 85.0 | 0.573 | | | 塑料 | 7,735.00 | 7,735.00 | 0 | 0 ...

Investment Rating - The report indicates a cautious investment sentiment in the A-share market, with a recommendation to adopt volatility strategies due to the current market conditions [2]. Core Insights - The A-share market is experiencing a fluctuating and differentiated pattern, with daily trading volume dropping below 2 trillion yuan. The CSI 300 index has fallen below its 60-day moving average, and the daily K-line indicator has turned gray, while the weekly K-line indicator has turned green after breaking below the 20-week moving average [2][12]. - The implied volatility of options has increased, indicating a rise in market uncertainty. The put-call ratio (PCR) has also risen, suggesting a growing interest in options trading [2][30]. - The report highlights that the underlying index has breached the strike price of the maximum open interest for put options, indicating bearish sentiment among investors [33]. Summary by Sections 1. CSI 300 Index Options (IO) - The CSI 300 index has broken below the 20-week moving average, with the weekly K-line indicator turning green. The index's daily K-line indicator has turned gray after falling below the 60-day moving average [9][12]. - The current trading volume for options has increased, with a stable PCR for open interest, while implied volatility has risen [27][30]. 2. CSI 1000 Index Options (MO) - The CSI 1000 index has also broken below its 250-week moving average, maintaining a bearish K-line indicator. The daily K-line indicator remains red after falling below the 10 and 850-day moving averages [36][39]. - The implied volatility for the CSI 1000 options has increased, reflecting heightened market uncertainty [43]. 3. SSE 50 Index Options (HO) - The SSE 50 index has fallen below its 10 and 850-day moving averages, with the daily K-line indicator remaining red. The weekly K-line indicator has turned green after a bearish trend [2][12]. - The trading volume for options has expanded, with an increase in implied volatility and a decrease in PCR for open interest [27][30].

Investment Rating - The report indicates a cautious outlook on the A-share market, suggesting a focus on trading opportunities post the Two Sessions [1]. Core Insights - The A-share market experienced a rebound after an initial decline, with the CSI 300 index facing resistance at the 850-day moving average, while the weekly indicators turned positive [2]. - The report highlights that the implied volatility of options has decreased, with a notable shift in the maximum open interest strike prices for both call and put options remaining stable [2][33]. - The report emphasizes the performance of the CSI 1000 index, which reached a new high for the year, with indicators showing a bullish trend [2][37]. Summary by Sections 1. CSI 300 Index Options (IO) - The CSI 300 index's weekly K-line chart shows a bullish trend, with the index closing above the 250-week moving average [9]. - The current month’s futures contract is trading at a discount to the underlying asset, while the next month’s contract shows a stable basis [19][22]. - The report notes a decrease in trading volume for options, but an increase in open interest, indicating a potential shift in market sentiment [27][30]. 2. CSI 1000 Index Options (MO) - The CSI 1000 index has maintained a bullish trend, with the weekly indicators remaining positive [35]. - The current month’s options pricing reflects a slight decline, with the maximum open interest for call options at 6600 and for put options at 6000, indicating market positioning [38][31]. - The implied volatility for the CSI 1000 options has shown fluctuations, initially decreasing before rising again [41].

中原期货研究所 晨会纪要 2025 第（41）期 发布日期：2025-03-05 | 投资咨询业务资格 | | | --- | --- | | 证监发【2014】217 | 号 | | 中原期货研究所 | 0371-58620081 | | 0371-58620083 | | | 公司官方微信 | | 1 公司官方微信 中原期货研究所 | 化工 | 主力合约 | 2025/3/5 | 2025/3/4 | 涨跌 | 涨跌幅/% | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | | 8:00 | 15:00 | | | | | 焦煤 | 1.083.00 | 1.091.00 | -8.0 | -0.733 | | | 焦炭 | 1.652.00 | 1.666.00 | -14.0 | -0.840 | | | 天然橡胶 | 17.355.00 | 17.665.00 | -310.0 | -1.755 | | | 20号胶 | 15,115.00 | 15,480.00 | -365.0 | -2.358 | | | 朝彩 | 7,863.00 | 7,905.00 | ...

Core Insights - The report highlights the recent fluctuations in commodity prices, with significant movements observed in metals, energy, and agricultural products, indicating a volatile market environment [1][2][3][4]. Macro Indicators - The U.S. October CPI rose by 2.6% year-on-year, marking the first acceleration since March, aligning with market expectations [3]. - International oil prices showed mixed performance, with U.S. oil for December contracts falling by 0.12% to $68.04 per barrel, while Brent oil for January 2025 rose by 0.08% to $71.95 per barrel [3]. Commodity Market Overview Metals - LME copper prices decreased by 1.498% to $9,007.50 per ton, while LME aluminum fell by 1.442% to $2,528.00 per ton [1]. - The report notes a decline in copper inventory by 14,700 tons compared to the previous week, but total inventory remains higher than last year [7]. Energy - The report indicates a slight increase in crude oil prices, with NYMEX at $68.04 and ICE Brent at $72.03, reflecting a stable demand outlook [1][4]. - The domestic urea market shows a slight increase in prices, with main regional factory prices around 1,750-1,760 yuan per ton, amid fluctuating supply and demand dynamics [6]. Agricultural Products - The soybean market is experiencing downward pressure, with prices for No. 1 yellow soybeans at 3,951 yuan per ton, down by 0.227% [2]. - Sugar prices are influenced by a strong dollar, with raw sugar prices dropping by 0.94% recently, while domestic prices remain stable [5]. Chemical Products - The report notes a decline in the prices of various chemical products, including a 0.505% drop in natural rubber and a 1.019% decrease in PTA [2]. - The domestic methanol market remains stable, with prices around 2,491 yuan per ton, reflecting limited fluctuations in supply and demand [6]. Market Sentiment - The overall market sentiment remains cautious, with traders advised to adopt a short-selling strategy in certain agricultural commodities due to weak demand [5]. - The report suggests that the current market conditions may present opportunities for strategic trading, particularly in sectors showing signs of recovery or stability [9].