中原期货研究所 晨会纪要 2025 第（75）期 发布日期：2025-04-28 | 投资咨询业务资格 | | | --- | --- | | 证监发【2014】217 | 号 | | 中原期货研究所 | 0371-58620081 | | 0371-58620083 | | | 公司官方微信 | | 1 公司官方微信 中原期货研究所 | 化工 | 主力合约 | 2025/4/28 | 2025/4/25 | 涨跌 | 涨跌幅/% | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | | 8:00 | 15:00 | | | | | 焦煤 | 959.00 | 956.00 | 3.0 | 0.314 | | | 焦炭 | 1,577.00 | 1,566.00 | 11.0 | 0.702 | | | 天然橡胶 | 14,795.00 | 14,720.00 | 75.0 | 0.510 | | | 20号胶 | 12,355.00 | 12,300.00 | 55.0 | Q.447 | | | 塑料 | 7,154.00 | 7,150.00 | 4.0 | 0.056 ...

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core View of the Report The report presents the latest market data, macro news, and morning meeting views on various commodity futures and financial markets. It analyzes the supply - demand situation, price trends, and investment suggestions for different sectors such as agriculture, energy and chemicals, industrial metals, and financial options [4][6][12]. Summary by Related Catalogs 1. Market Data - **Chemical Products**: On April 24, 2025, most chemical product futures prices declined compared to the previous day. For example, crude oil dropped by 3.255% to 487.40, and fuel oil decreased by 2.640% to 2,987.00 [4]. - **Agricultural Products**: The prices of some agricultural products rose, while others fell. Yellow soybean No.1 increased by 1.226% to 4,292.00, and rapeseed meal rose by 1.306% to 2,714.00. Meanwhile, white sugar decreased by 0.819% to 5,937.00 [4]. 2. Macro News - Diplomatic responses were given to the US statements on tariffs and trade agreements. China hopes the US to stop threats and conduct dialogues on an equal, respectful, and reciprocal basis [6]. - China and Azerbaijan established a comprehensive strategic partnership, including cooperation in trade, investment, and other fields, and signed a visa - exemption agreement [6]. - The EU appealed against a WTO dispute case, and China will handle it according to relevant rules to safeguard its legitimate rights [6]. - The Fed's "Beige Book" showed little change in economic activity, with uncertainties in international trade policies [6]. - The US President may exempt some tariffs on automakers and steel and aluminum, and the US Commerce Department launched a truck import investigation [7]. - International oil prices weakened due to concerns about OPEC+ production increases and global economic uncertainties [8]. - Zhengzhou plans to adjust the upper age limit for housing provident fund loans [8]. 3. Morning Meeting Views on Main Varieties Agricultural Products - **Peanuts**: The spot market is stable with increased supply. Focus on the 5 - 10 positive spread and consider short - selling on rebounds [12]. - **Oils and Fats**: The overall commodity atmosphere is weak, and the oil market is expected to decline. Palm oil and soybean oil inventories have changed, and total trading volume decreased [12]. - **Sugar**: The market has both long and short factors. It is recommended to buy low and sell high in the 5950 - 6050 range, with key levels at 5950 and 6050 [12]. - **Corn**: The market is also mixed. Technically, pay attention to the 2300 support level, and consider going long lightly if it holds, with a stop - loss for inventory pressure [12]. - **Pigs**: Spot prices are stable with fluctuations. Futures are in high - level oscillations, and short - term operations are recommended [13]. - **Eggs**: Spot prices are falling. There is short - term support from pre - May Day demand, but medium - term pressure is increasing, and short - selling opportunities can be considered [13]. Energy and Chemicals - **Urea**: Supply is high, and demand is weak. Futures prices may continue to oscillate weakly, and weather and macro factors should be monitored [13]. - **Caustic Soda**: The market is relatively stable, and the 2509 contract continues to operate at a low level [13]. - **Coking Coal and Coke**: The coking coal market is weakening, and there is still an expectation of a second - round price increase for coke. Short - term, they are in low - level oscillations [13]. Industrial Metals - **Copper and Aluminum**: Prices rebounded on April 23. Pay attention to the filling of the gap. Copper and aluminum inventories have decreased [13][16]. - **Alumina**: The supply - demand fundamentals are still in surplus. In the medium - to - long - term, prices are under pressure, and a bearish approach is recommended [16]. - **Steel Products**: Spot market transactions improved, and prices rebounded in a range. Pay attention to the 3200 pressure for rebar and 3300 for hot - rolled coils [16]. - **Ferroalloys**: They are in short - term low - level oscillations. Steel tenders are approaching the end [16]. - **Lithium Carbonate**: The market is in a situation of weak supply and demand. Technically, it is recommended to wait and see, and consider going long lightly if the 69500 pressure is broken [16]. Financial Options - **Stock Indexes**: Driven by policy benefits, relevant concept sectors are active. The market shows resilience, and trading volume is above 1 trillion yuan. Consider short - term opportunities for index futures and combination arbitrage strategies [18]. - **Options**: Different index options have different performance in terms of volume, open interest, and implied volatility. Trend investors can defend or use arbitrage strategies, and volatility investors can buy wide - straddles after volatility reduction [20].

1. Report's Industry Investment Rating - Not mentioned in the provided content 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - A - shares continued the pattern of strong heavy - weight stocks and weak small - cap stocks this week, with sluggish market trading. On April 18, the A - share trading volume was less than one trillion, hitting the lowest level since the "924" market last year [2]. - For index options, different strategies are recommended for different varieties. For index options, the trend strategy is mainly defensive or a long - 50 and short - 1000 spread, and the volatility strategy is to buy a wide - straddle after the volatility drops to bet on the increase in volatility [2]. 3. Summary According to the Table of Contents 3.1沪深300股指期权（IO） - The CSI 300 index fluctuated narrowly. The weekly line returned to the 120 - week moving average, and the three - color K - line indicator on the weekly line remained green. The daily three - color K - line indicator turned gray [2][10][13]. - The IF futures current - month contract's premium to the underlying asset decreased, and the premium of the next - month contract to the current - month contract increased [21][24]. - The trading volume of IO options shrank, and the position in April did not exceed that of last month. The trading volume PCR of options decreased, and the position PCR increased. The implied volatility first decreased and then increased, tending to be stable. The strike prices of the maximum positions of both call and put options decreased [2][29][32][35]. - The expiration settlement price of the April contract of CSI 300 index options was at a six - month low, and the exercise rate increased [37]. 3.2中证1000股指期权（MO） - The daily line of the CSI 1000 index first rose and then fell. The weekly line barely held the 850 - week moving average, and the three - color K - line indicators on both the daily and weekly lines remained green [2][41][43]. - The IM futures current - month contract's premium to the underlying asset decreased, and the premium of the next - month contract to the current - month contract also decreased [51][53]. - The trading volume of MO options shrank, but the position in April exceeded that of last month. The trading volume PCR of options decreased, and the position PCR increased. The implied volatility decreased. The range of strike prices of the maximum positions of call and put options narrowed [2][59][62][65]. - The expiration settlement price of the April contract of CSI 1000 index options was at a five - month low, and the exercise rate decreased [67]. 3.3上证50股指期权（HO） - The SSE 50 index returned to the 850 - day moving average. The weekly line had two consecutive positive candles, and the three - color K - line indicator on the weekly line turned gray. The daily three - color K - line indicator turned red [2][71][73]. - The IH futures current - month contract's premium to the underlying asset decreased, and the premium of the next - month contract to the current - month contract first expanded and then shrank [81][83]. - The trading volume of HO options increased, but the position in April did not exceed that of the previous six months. Both the trading volume PCR and the position PCR of options increased. The implied volatility stabilized. The strike prices of the maximum positions of both call and put options moved up [2][90][93]. - The expiration settlement price of the April contract of SSE 50 index options was at a two - month low, and the exercise rate increased [98].

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The egg market shows a clear contradiction of oversupply and low valuation in the current stage. After the seasonal stocking, the weather factor will continue to suppress the market. It is recommended to short after the rebound and continue the JD59 positive spread strategy [3]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs 3.1 Periodic and Spot Market Review - **Egg Futures**: Last week, the futures market showed concerns about the short - term spot price increase. The futures market was stagnant and needed further guidance from the spot market. Although the spot market may still have room to rise, the futures market has started to reflect the post - holiday spot price expectations. It will still take time for the market to break away from the bottom range [6]. - **Egg Spot**: Last week, the spot price was stable with a slight upward trend. Supported by downstream stocking, the spot price rebounded from the bottom and fluctuated in the range of 3.2 - 3.5 yuan per catty. However, after the May Day stocking, the downstream market will return to weakness, and the weather will become the main factor suppressing the spot price [6]. 3.2 Supply Side - **New - added Capacity**: From March to June 2025, the newly - opened production corresponds to the replenishment volume from October 2024 to January 2025, which remains at a high level and is higher than the historical average [10]. - **Eliminated Capacity**: From March to June 2025, the normal eliminated capacity corresponds to the replenishment volume from October 2023 to January 2024, and the available elimination volume is relatively neutral [10]. - **Laying Hen Inventory**: The inventory remains at a high level. The growth rate of normal new - added capacity is relatively stable, and the elimination volume is high, which may lead to a slowdown in phased supply [10]. 3.3 Elimination End - The price of eliminated chickens fluctuates at a high level, the elimination volume slows down significantly, the average elimination age is about 530 days, and the elimination enthusiasm is increasing [13]. 3.4 Market Factors - **Seasonality**: The seasonal strength - weakness conversion occurs, and the restocking demand is still the main support for the current market [15]. - **Production Area**: The inventory in the production area is not high, and purchases are made on demand. The future weather in the south is not conducive to storage, and quality issues will affect egg prices [15]. - **Consumption End**: After holiday stocking, the inventory has been transferred to the downstream [15]. - **Substitute Products**: Vegetable prices are weak, and the supply has recovered, so the support for egg prices has weakened; pork prices continue to decline, and the substitution effect on eggs is not obvious; other meat prices have strengthened in the short term [17]. 3.5 Cost and Profit - **Raw Material End**: Corn and soybean meal prices have rebounded from the low level. Corn is supported by policy - based purchases, and soybean meal remains stable with a slight upward trend due to short - term spot shortages [22]. - **Cost End**: The cost continues to rise. Currently, the feed cost is about 2.6 yuan per catty, and the comprehensive breeding cost is about 2.9 yuan per catty [22]. - **Breeding Profit**: The breeding profit has rebounded, but it has not yet emerged from the seasonal low [22]. 3.6 Capital and Market Indicators - **Capital Flow**: After the rebound this week, funds left the market and then re - entered. The short - selling main funds exerted force again [25]. - **Basis**: The basis has fallen from a high level. The spot price has dropped significantly after the holiday, but the basis has stabilized and strengthened later, which is expected to provide some support for the market [27]. - **Spread**: With the rebound of the spot price, the near - term contracts are supported, and the spread has strengthened. In the future, the positive spread strategy will be the main approach [30].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - For ferrosilicon, the weekly output continued to decline, consumption slightly rebounded, traders were cautious with low - inventory. Steel mills pressured prices during procurement, and the game continued. Although the approaching Politburo meeting improved the market atmosphere and provided some support at low prices, the medium - term bearish pattern remained unchanged, and prices were expected to fluctuate at a low level. Strategies could be bearish on rebounds [4]. - For silicomanganese, the mills' losses persisted, production continued to decline slightly on a weekly basis, weekly consumption decreased, and the pressure from high - level warehouse receipts remained. The price of manganese ore weakened, and port inventory was at a low level. The supply - demand fundamentals of silicomanganese remained loose, and prices were expected to oscillate weakly at a low level [28]. 3. Summary According to Related Catalogs 3.1 Ferrosilicon 3.1.1 Supply - The output of 136 independent ferrosilicon enterprises was 10030 tons last week, a week - on - week decrease of 2.72% and a year - on - year increase of 9.02%. In March 2025, the ferrosilicon output was 50270 tons, a month - on - month increase of 3.85% and a year - on - year increase of 18.02% [7]. 3.1.2 Demand - The consumption of ferrosilicon in five major steel products was 2050 tons, a week - on - week increase of 0.11% and a year - on - year increase of 3.45%. The weekly output of five major steel products was 872710 tons, a week - on - week increase of 0.19% and a year - on - year increase of 1.42% [9]. 3.1.3 Inventory - The enterprise inventory (bi - weekly data) was 9490 tons, a week - on - week increase of 19.15% and a year - on - year increase of 50.45%. The steel mill inventory days in March were 16.26 days, a month - on - month increase of 0.26 days and a year - on - year increase of 0.42 days. The number of ferrosilicon warehouse receipts was 13757, a week - on - week increase of 2552 and a year - on - year decrease of 1587 [12][20]. 3.1.4 Cost - The electricity price in Inner Mongolia decreased, and the price of oxidized iron scale dropped, leading to a slight decline in costs. Although the profit in Inner Mongolia improved, overall losses still existed [4][17]. 3.1.5 Basis - The basis of the main contract was 218 yuan/ton, a week - on - week increase of 146 yuan/ton [4]. 3.1.6 Position - The total position of ferrosilicon increased [21]. 3.2 Silicomanganese 3.2.1 Supply - The weekly output of 121 independent silicomanganese enterprises was 18860 tons, a week - on - week decrease of 1.62% and a year - on - year increase of 18.57%. In March 2025, the national silicomanganese output was 89910 tons, a month - on - month increase of 3.68% and a year - on - year increase of 6.52% [31]. 3.2.2 Demand - The weekly consumption of silicomanganese was 12630 tons, a week - on - week decrease of 0.23% and a year - on - year increase of 3.44%. The weekly output of five major steel products was 872710 tons, a week - on - week increase of 0.19% and a year - on - year increase of 1.42% [34]. 3.2.3 Inventory - The enterprise inventory (bi - weekly data) was 15760 tons, a week - on - week increase of 6.06% and a year - on - year decrease of 49.57%. The steel mill inventory days in March were 16.61 days, a month - on - month increase of 0.34 days and a year - on - year increase of 0.58 days. The number of silicomanganese warehouse receipts was 119504, a week - on - week increase of 2003 and a year - on - year increase of 67274 [37][38]. 3.2.4 Cost - The prices of manganese ore in Tianjin Port and Qinzhou Port continued to decline, and the cost of silicomanganese kept moving down. Although the electricity price in Inner Mongolia decreased and the profit improved, losses still persisted [28][44]. 3.2.5 Basis - The basis of the main contract was +154 yuan/ton, a week - on - week decrease of 40 yuan/ton [28]. 3.2.6 Position - The total position of silicomanganese increased on a weekly basis [45].

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. 2. Core Views of the Report - **Soda Ash**: The supply - increase and demand - stable pattern continues. With the resumption of weekly production to a high level and stable demand, there is still pressure on soda ash enterprises to accumulate inventory. The futures price may continue to fluctuate weakly. The SA2509 contract is expected to find support around 1300 yuan/ton. Opportunities for short - selling on rebounds due to macro - positive factors or supply reduction can be monitored [5]. - **Glass**: The marginal change in glass supply and demand is limited. The large number of registered warehouse receipts suppresses the near - month price. The short - term market may continue to oscillate weakly. Attention should be paid to the impact of macro - policies, and 5 - 9 reverse arbitrage can be considered [6]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Weekly View Summary - **Soda Ash**: The device operating rate is 89.50% (+1.45%), weekly output is 75.56 tons (+1.78 tons). The apparent demand is 73.73 tons (-0.88 tons). The enterprise inventory is 171.13 tons (+1.83 tons). The price is weakly stable, and the futures price may be weak [5]. - **Glass**: The float glass daily melting volume is 15.85 tons, unchanged. The total inventory of sample enterprises is 6507.8 million weight boxes (-12.5 million weight boxes, -0.19% MoM, +9.94% YoY). The average order days of deep - processing enterprises is 9.3 days (13.4% MoM, -17.7% YoY). The price is slightly up, and the market may be weak [6]. 3.2 Variety Details Decomposition - **Market Review - Spot Price**: As of April 17, 2025, in the central China region, the heavy soda ash market price is 1400 yuan/ton, and the light soda ash is 1300 yuan/ton. In the northern China region, the heavy soda ash is 1550 yuan/ton, and the light soda ash is 1450 yuan/ton. The soda ash futures price is weak, and the glass futures price drops sharply [12][15]. - **Market Review - Spread**: As of April 17, 2025, the soda ash 5 - 9 spread is -39 yuan/ton (+10 yuan/ton MoM), the glass 5 - 9 spread is -28 yuan/ton (+18 yuan/ton MoM), and the glass - soda ash arbitrage spread is 192 yuan/ton (+41 yuan/ton MoM) [20]. - **Fundamentals - Supply**: Soda ash output is 75.56 tons (+1.78 tons). The comprehensive capacity utilization rate is 89.50% (+1.45%). Some plants have maintenance plans. The float glass daily output is 15.85 tons, and the photovoltaic daily melting volume is 96130 tons, both unchanged [28][32][43]. - **Fundamentals - Inventory**: As of April 17, 2025, soda ash enterprise inventory is 171.13 tons (+1.83 tons). The total inventory of float glass sample enterprises is 6507.8 million weight boxes (-12.5 million weight boxes, -0.19% MoM, +9.94% YoY) [36][48]. - **Fundamentals - Profit**: As of April 17, 2025, the theoretical profit of ammonia - soda process soda ash is -60 yuan/ton (+26 yuan/ton MoM), and the theoretical profit of dual - ton combined - soda process is 154 yuan/ton (-10 yuan/ton MoM) [51].

成交量持续萎缩 逢高减仓滚动操作 ——股指周报2025.04.21 客服中心 ：李卫红 联系方式：0371-68599157 电子邮箱：liwh_qh@ccnew.com 投资咨询业务资格 证监发【2014】217号 投资咨询编号：Z0017812 | 本期观点 | | --- | | 品种 | 主要逻辑 | 策略建议 | 风险提示 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | 1、来自第一财经消息，随着近期"国家队"等多路资金的持续加仓，ETF市场总规模站上 作透明、交易便捷等特征，ETF也受到各类投资者青睐。 中证500周跌0.37%，中证1000周跌0.52%。成交方面，四大指数日均交易量交易前一周 | | | | | 了4万亿元关口。据Wind数据统计，截至4月20日，全市场ETF最新规模达到40116.17亿 | | | | | 元。其中，股票ETF是规模增长的主力军。与此同时，4月以来，场内ETF基金的资金净 | | | | | 流入额超过3200亿元。其中，沪深300ETF、中证500ETF、中证1000ETF等宽基产品最 | 操作上，市场量 | | | | 受青睐。在业内人士 ...

投资咨询业务资格 证监发【2014】217号 【中原化工】 供应维持高位运行，需求支撑阶段性转弱 ——尿素周报2025.04.21 中原期货研究所：化工组 作者：刘培洋 研究助理：申文 执业证书编号：F0290318 执业证书编号： F03117458 投资咨询编号：Z0011155 0371-58620083 0371-58620081 liupy_qh@ccnew.com shenwen_qh@ccnew.com 01 周度观点汇总 1.1 尿素周度观点——供应维持高位运行，需求支撑阶段性转弱 | 品种 | 主要逻辑 | 策略建议 | 风险提示 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 1. 供应：部分装置计划检修，供应存阶段性减量预期； | | | | | | 2. 需求：下游需求支撑边际转弱； | | | | | 3. 库存：上游尿素企业库存持续累积； | | | | | 4. 成本与利润：煤炭价格弱稳运行，尿素利润环比下降； | | | | | 5. 基差与价差：5-9价差偏弱震荡，05基差走强。 | | 保供稳价政策、 | | 6. 整体逻辑： | | UR2509合约关 | 新 ...

投资咨询业务资格 证监发【2014】217号 政策预期回升，黑色系低位形成支撑 ——周报20250421 投 资 咨 询 编 号 ：Z0020978 研究所 ：林娜 联 系 方 式 ：0371-58620083 电 子 邮 箱 ：linna_qh@ccnew.com 执 业 证 书 编 号 ：F03099603 | 本期观点——螺纹钢、热卷 | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 品种 | 主要逻辑 | 策略建议 | 风险点 | | | 供应：全国螺纹周产量229.22万吨（环比-1.36%，同比+3.23%），全国热卷周产 | | | | | 量314.4万吨（环比+0.35%，同比-2.71%）。螺纹钢产量下降，热卷产量微增。 | | | | | 消费：螺纹表观消费273.82万吨（环比+8.37%，同比-4.92%），热卷表观消费 | | | | | 324.16万吨（环比+2.80%，同比-0.40%）。螺纹钢表需回升明显，热卷需求小幅 | | | | | 增加。 | 单边： | | | | 库存：螺纹总库存733.16万吨（环比-5.73%，同比-27.75%），热卷 ...

2025 第（70）期 发布日期：2025-04-21 | | | | 商品指数每日市场跟踪 | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 宏观指标 | | 2025/4/21 | 2025/4/18 | 涨 跌 | 涨跌幅/% | | | | 08:00 | 15:00 | | | | 道琼斯工业指数 | | 39142.23 | 39669.39 | -527.160 | -1.329 | | 纳斯达克指数 | | 16286.45 | 16307.16 | -20.710 | -0.127 | | 标普500 | | 5282.70 | 5275.70 | 7.0 | 0.133 | | 恒生指数 | | 21395.14 | 21056.98 | 338.160 | 1.606 | | SHIBOR隔夜 | | 1.66 | 1.63 | 0.026 | 1.591 | | 美元指数 | | 98.82 | 99.23 | -0.413 | -0.416 | | 美元兑人民币(CFETS) | | 7.30 | 7.30 | 0 | 0 | | 主力合约 ...