Report Summary 1. Investment Rating No investment rating for the industry is provided in the report. 2. Core View The market shifted from high - level oscillation to a decline this week, with the core driver being the shift in fundamental expectations. The market reached a consensus on the "supply increase and demand decrease" pattern in December, where supply is expected to increase by 3% month - on - month while downstream cathode material production is set to decline month - on - month. This led to the weakening of the previous low - inventory support logic and the price breaking through the key support level. Currently, the market is in an expectation - driven downward phase, and the core contradiction between bulls and bears lies in whether the increased supply can be fully absorbed by energy storage demand and the strength of cost - line support for prices [2]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Lithium Salt Market Introduction - **Price Changes**: Battery - grade lithium carbonate spot prices dropped 2.36% to 91,100 yuan/ton, and industrial - grade prices fell 2.4% to 89,650 yuan/ton. The main futures contract decreased 4.42% to 92,160 yuan/ton. In contrast, the spot prices of various types of lithium hydroxide increased, with the price of electric - carbon (coarse particles) rising 3.81% to 81,700 yuan/ton, electric - carbon (fine powder) up 3.58% to 86,900 yuan/ton, and industrial - carbon rising 4.09% to 76,400 yuan/ton [2][4]. - **Premium and Discount Changes**: The weekly changes in the premium and discount of lithium carbonate raw materials and enterprises were significant, with most showing a large decline [7]. 3.2 Lithium Salt Fundamentals - **Supply**: In December, China's lithium carbonate production is expected to increase 3% month - on - month, with the weekly capacity utilization rate remaining at a high of 75.34%. Although seasonal production cuts in salt lakes pose short - term disruptions, overall supply is abundant [2]. - **Demand**: Demand is differentiated. Energy storage cell production continues to grow, providing support, but the production plan of downstream cathode materials in December is set to decline month - on - month, and the growth rate of new energy vehicles has slowed, leading to concerns about a marginal weakening of demand after the peak season [2]. - **Import and Export**: Although no import and export data are provided, the available inventory of lithium ore port traders increased 5.56% to 95,000 tons week - on - week, indicating relatively smooth raw material supply channels. The freight rates for lithium ore transportation from South Africa, Zimbabwe, and Nigeria remained unchanged this week [2][27]. - **Inventory**: The number of exchange warehouse receipts increased 100.74% to 10,922 lots week - on - week, and the inventory at lithium ore ports and warehouses also increased, indicating overall inventory pressure [2][40]. - **Cost and Profit**: The production cost of externally purchased lithium concentrate decreased 2.5% to 97,521 yuan/ton week - on - week, but the production profit was still - 6,421 yuan/ton, with the loss widening 4.47% week - on - week, and cost support declined [2]. 3.3 Lithium Battery Fundamentals The report also briefly mentions aspects of the lithium battery industry, including the market, supply, demand, import and export, cost - profit, and recycling of cathode materials, electrolytes, and new energy vehicle production and sales. However, specific data and detailed analysis are not provided in the given content.

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No investment rating information is provided in the report. 2. Core View of the Report The sugar market is expected to remain weak under multiple supply pressures, and the main contract may continue to test the support around 5,200 yuan/ton in the next 1 - 2 weeks. The core contradiction lies in the imbalance between the supply increase caused by the concentrated listing of new domestic and foreign sugar and the weak downstream demand. The accelerated domestic crushing progress and the optimistic production expectations of major international producers have jointly pressured the market, leading to a simultaneous weakening of futures and spot prices, with funds leaving the market to wait and see, and the market struggling to find effective support in the short term [3]. 3. Summary According to the Table of Contents 3.1. Market Review - **Weekly Review**: The 11 - day sugar continuous contract closed at 14.8, down 2.70% from last Friday; the main Zhengzhou sugar contract closed at 5,303 yuan/ton, down 1.80%. Spot prices in major domestic producing areas generally declined, with Nanning, Liuzhou, and Kunming down 1.65%, 1.65%, and 1.84% respectively. The basis of Liuzhou sugar and the main contract increased by 17.50% to 47 yuan/ton. The total of warehouse receipts and valid forecasts remained unchanged at 183. Market sentiment showed that the proportion of those bullish, bearish, and neutral on Zhengzhou sugar remained unchanged at 10%, 55%, and 35% respectively [5]. 3.2. Fundamental Analysis - **China's Sugar Production and Sales**: Not elaborated in the provided content. - **China's Sugarcane Sugar Production and Sales in Major Producing Areas**: Not elaborated in the provided content. - **China's Beet Sugar Production and Sales in Major Producing Areas**: Not elaborated in the provided content. - **China's White Sugar Industrial Inventory**: The data has not been updated, and the market is concerned about the inventory accumulation progress after the listing of new sugar [3]. - **China's Sugar Import and Export**: The import profit margin has expanded. The processing profits of Thai and Brazilian sugar within the quota increased by 1.66% and 2.14% week - on - week respectively, and the profits outside the quota increased even more (7.47% and 8.68%) [3]. - **China's Major Sugar Importing Countries**: Not elaborated in the provided content. - **China's Sugar Import Cost and Profit**: The import processing cost decreased by 1% - 2% week - on - week. For Brazil, the quota - within processing cost decreased by 1.58% to 3,987 yuan/ton, and the quota - outside decreased by 1.63% to 5,085 yuan/ton; the quota - within import profit increased by 2.14% to 1,812 yuan/ton, and the quota - outside increased by 8.68% to 714 yuan/ton. For Thailand, the quota - within processing cost decreased by 1.37% to 4,027 yuan/ton, and the quota - outside decreased by 1.40% to 5,137 yuan/ton; the quota - within import profit increased by 1.66% to 1,772 yuan/ton, and the quota - outside increased by 7.47% to 662 yuan/ton [29]. 3.3. International Market Fundamentals - **Brazil's Available Sugar Quantity**: Not elaborated in the provided content. - **Brazil's Sugarcane Crushing Volume**: Not elaborated in the provided content. - **Brazil's Sugar Production**: Not elaborated in the provided content. - **Brazil's Ethanol Production**: Not elaborated in the provided content. - **Brazil's Sugar Import and Export**: Not elaborated in the provided content. - **International Raw Sugar Premiums and Freight Costs**: Not elaborated in the provided content.

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant investment rating information provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints - The macro - economic environment shows multiple changes, including adjustments to the medical insurance drug catalog, research on "15th Five - Year Plan" industrial policies, stable growth of foreign exchange reserves and continuous increase in gold reserves, and a significant increase in global semiconductor sales. In the market, different varieties in the agricultural, energy - chemical, industrial metal, and option - finance sectors have different trends and investment outlooks [9][10]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Chemicals - On December 8, 2025, among the domestic chemical products, the prices of 20 - number rubber, (PTA), asphalt, styrene, glass, crude oil, fuel oil, soda ash, LPG, caustic soda, and ЬХ increased, with styrene having the largest increase of 0.946%. The prices of coking coal, coke, natural rubber, plastic, polypropylene PP, PVC, methanol, ethylene glycol, and pulp decreased, with coking coal having the largest decrease of 3.158% [6]. 3.2 Macro - economic News - The National Healthcare Security Administration and the Ministry of Human Resources and Social Security issued the drug catalogs, with 114 new drugs added to the medical insurance catalog and 19 drugs included in the first - edition commercial insurance innovative drug catalog. The Ministry of Industry and Information Technology will focus on promoting industrial economic growth and reform. As of the end of November 2025, China's foreign exchange reserves reached 3.3464 trillion US dollars, and the central bank's gold reserve increased for the 13th consecutive month. In October, global semiconductor sales increased by 33% year - on - year. The 2025 Cultivated Diamond Industry Conference was held in Zhengzhou. The US President ordered an investigation into the food supply chain [9][10][11]. 3.3 Morning Meeting Views on Main Varieties 3.3.1 Agricultural Products - Peanut futures: On December 5, the price was slightly up, and the market was in a stalemate between supply and demand. It is expected to consolidate in the short term, with resistance at around 8,120 yuan and support at 8,044 yuan [13]. - Sugar futures: On December 5, the price was down. The supply pressure was high, and the international market was also in a loose supply situation. The short - term support is around 5,200 yuan/ton [13]. - Corn futures: On December 5, the price was up, with tight supply and strong demand. It is recommended to be cautious about chasing high, with support at around 2,280 yuan [13]. - Live pig futures: The spot price was weak last week, with oversupply in the short term. The futures are expected to consolidate at a low level and wait for demand support [13][15]. - Egg futures: The spot price was stable last week. It is expected that the futures will rebound at a low level next week, but there is still pressure from premium [15]. - Cotton futures: On December 5, the price was slightly down. The supply and demand were both uncertain, and it is expected to fluctuate within a range. It is recommended to wait and see for the time being [15]. 3.3.2 Energy - Chemical Products - Urea: The situation is the same as that of live pigs, with oversupply in the short term and the futures expected to consolidate at a low level [14][15]. - Caustic soda: The supply in Shandong is high, the demand is weak, and the price is expected to continue to decline. The 2601 contract should be treated with a bearish view [15][17]. - Coking coal: The production increase is limited, the trading enthusiasm is low, and it is expected to be under pressure and fluctuate weakly in the short term [17][18]. - Logs: The supply is tight, the demand is weak, and the price is expected to fluctuate within the range of 760 - 800 yuan [17]. - Pulp: The supply has support, the demand is weak, and the price has fallen to the middle - lower part of the range. It is recommended to wait and see [17]. - Offset printing paper: The price has broken through the previous range, and a bearish view is recommended, with support at 4,000 yuan [17][18]. 3.3.3 Industrial Metals - Copper and aluminum: The market's expectation of the Fed's interest rate cut has heated up again, and copper and aluminum are running at a high level. Pay attention to macro - risks [18]. - Alumina: The supply is in excess, the 2601 contract is running at a low level, and pay attention to factors such as bauxite [18]. - Rebar and hot - rolled coil: The situation is the same as that of coking coal, with short - term pressure and weak fluctuations [18]. - Ferroalloys: At the end of the year, the supply and demand of ferroalloys are both weak. The price fluctuates weakly following the black series, and the idea of hedging on rebounds in the industry remains unchanged [18][20]. - Lithium carbonate: The supply is expected to increase, the demand is expected to decrease, and a short - term bearish view is taken, with support at 90,000 yuan/ton [20]. 3.3.4 Option - Finance - Stock index options: The A - share market showed a general upward trend on December 5. Trend investors can pay attention to the opportunity of arbitrage between varieties, and volatility investors can buy the straddle strategy to go long on volatility [22]. - Stock index: The rebound of the rising trilogy is about to start. After the Fed's interest rate decision is announced, the market will enter the event - driven stage. It is recommended to pay attention to the IC index, as well as the IF index of pro - cyclical and large - cap stocks [24][25].

中原期货研究咨询部 晨会纪要 2025 第（221）期 发布日期：2025-12-05 | 中原期货研究咨询部 | 0371-58620081 | | --- | --- | | 0371-58620083 | | | 公司官方微信 | | 公司官方微信 1 中原期货研究咨询部 | 化工 | 主力合约 | 2025/12/5 | 2025/12/4 | 涨跌 | 涨跌幅/% | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | | 8:00 | 15:00 | | | | | 焦煤 | 1,177.00 | 1,091.50 | 85.50 | 7.833 | | | 焦炭 | 1,656.50 | 1,651.50 | 5.0 | 0.303 | | | 天然橡胶 | 15,070.00 | 15,040.00 | 30.0 | 0.199 | | | 20号胶 | 12,015.00 | 11,970.00 | 45.0 | 0.376 | | | 塑料 | 6,735.00 | 6.776.00 | -41.0 | -0.605 | | | 聚丙烯PP | 6,331. ...

中原期货研究咨询部 晨会纪要 2025 第（216）期 发布日期：2025-11-28 | | | | 商品指数每日市场跟踪 | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 宏观指标 | | 2025/11/28 | 2025/11/27 | 涨 跌 | 涨跌幅/% | | | | 08:00 | 15:00 | | | | 道琼斯工业指数 | | 47427.12 | 47112.45 | 314.670 | 0.668 | | 纳斯达克指数 | | 23214.69 | 23025.59 | 189.10 | 0.821 | | 标普500 | | 6812.61 | 6765.88 | 46.730 | 0.691 | | 恒生指数 | | 25945.93 | 25928.08 | 17.850 | 0.069 | | SHIBOR隔夜 | | 1.31 | 1.32 | -0.002 | -0.152 | | 美元指数 | | 99.53 | 99.55 | -0.025 | -0.025 | | 美元兑人民币(CFETS) | | 7.08 | 7.08 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The global capital market is undergoing a systematic recovery, driven by factors such as the Fed's potential interest - rate cuts, moderating core inflation, and AI technological breakthroughs [21]. - In the commodity market, different varieties show diverse trends. For example, precious metals are rising due to factors like the Fed's dovish stance and geopolitical uncertainties, while oil prices are under pressure due to the progress of the Russia - Ukraine peace talks and concerns about the US economic data [8]. - In the stock market, the three major indices rebounded on November 25, but the short - term rebound may be limited, and investors should maintain a balanced allocation and consider appropriate option strategies [22]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs 3.1 Commodity Index Daily Market Tracking - **Stock Indices**: On November 26, 2025, the Dow Jones Industrial Index rose 1.43% to 47112.45, the Nasdaq Index rose 0.671% to 23025.59, the S&P 500 rose 0.906% to 6765.88, and the Hang Seng Index rose 0.692% to 25894.55 [2]. - **Currencies**: The SHIBOR overnight rate remained unchanged at 1.32, the US dollar index rose 0.01% to 99.82, and the US dollar against the RMB (CFETS) remained unchanged at 7.09 [2]. - **Commodities**: COMEX gold rose 0.76% to 4165.20, COMEX silver rose 1.163% to 51.75, while NYMEX crude oil fell 1.325% to 58.11, and ICE Brent crude oil fell 1.323% to 61.90. Most domestic commodities also showed different degrees of rise or fall [2]. 3.2 Macro - economic News - The China - US heads - of - state phone call initiated by the US is of great significance for the stable development of China - US relations [7]. - The Chinese government will hold a policy briefing to introduce measures to enhance the adaptability of consumer goods supply and demand and promote consumption [7]. - Trump's team has made great progress in the Russia - Ukraine peace talks, and relevant parties are working towards finalizing a peace plan [7]. - From January to October, China's full - industry foreign direct investment increased by 6.2% year - on - year, and the newly - signed contract value of foreign contracted projects increased by 18.6% year - on - year [7]. - In September, US PPI and core PPI accelerated month - on - month, while retail sales growth slowed down [8]. - Oil prices fell due to the progress of the Russia - Ukraine peace talks and concerns about the US economic data, while precious metals rose due to the Fed's dovish stance and geopolitical uncertainties [8]. - The RMB against the US dollar rose, breaking through the 7.09 mark [9]. 3.3 Morning Meeting Views on Major Varieties 3.3.1 Agricultural Products - Peanuts: On November 25, peanut futures rose 0.53% to 7936 yuan/ton. The short - term may maintain a volatile and slightly strong pattern, and investors are advised to wait and see [11]. - Sugar: On November 25, sugar futures rose 0.52% to 5387 yuan/ton. With increasing supply pressure, a bearish view is recommended [11]. - Corn: On November 25, corn futures rose 1.63% to 2242 yuan/ton. The short - term is expected to be strong, and investors are advised to wait and see [11]. - Pigs: The national pig price was slightly weak. With the increase in the spread between standard and fat pigs, there is some pressure - holding sentiment in the market [11]. - Eggs: The national egg spot price was stable. With the improvement of supply - demand contradiction, the futures market is expected to stop falling and stabilize [11][12]. - Cotton: On November 25, Zhengzhou cotton futures rose 0.66% to 13645 yuan/ton. It is expected to maintain a range - bound pattern between 13500 - 13700 yuan/ton [12]. 3.3.2 Energy and Chemicals - Caustic Soda: The supply - demand pattern is weak, and the 2601 contract is expected to continue to run weakly [12]. - Urea: The domestic urea market is slightly weak. The short - term may continue to fluctuate weakly, and the UR2601 contract should pay attention to the support at 1580 - 1600 yuan/ton [12]. - Coking Coal: The short - term prices of coking coal and coke are under pressure and are expected to fluctuate weakly [12]. - Pulp: On November 25, pulp futures fell 0.27% to 5212 yuan/ton. The supply - demand pattern is loose, and the price may continue to be under pressure [12][13]. 3.3.3 Industrial Metals - Copper and Aluminum: Copper and aluminum prices are expected to remain high, but attention should be paid to macro risks [15]. - Alumina: The fundamental situation of alumina is in an oversupply pattern. The 2601 contract is running at a low level, and attention should be paid to the interference of factors such as bauxite [16]. - Rebar and Hot - rolled Coil: They are expected to fluctuate within a range, with rebar at 3000 - 3150 yuan and hot - rolled coil at 3200 - 3350 yuan [17]. - Ferrous Alloys: At the end of the year, the supply and demand of ferrous alloys are weak, and the price follows the weak trend of the black series. There is no driving force for further decline, and the industrial rebound hedging idea remains unchanged [20]. - Lithium Carbonate: On November 25, the lithium carbonate futures contract rose 4.47% to 95400 yuan/ton. The short - term should pay attention to the performance at the 95000 - yuan pressure level [20]. 3.3.4 Options and Finance - Stock Index: The three major indices stopped falling and rebounded on November 25. The short - term rebound may be limited, and investors should maintain a balanced allocation and consider appropriate option strategies [22]. - Options: On November 25, the three major A - share indices strengthened. Trend investors can pay attention to the strength - weakness arbitrage opportunities between varieties, and volatility investors can consider selling wide - straddle strategies after a significant increase in volatility [23][24].

Report Title - "Sugar Market Oscillates Downward, Supply Pressure Dominates the Market - Sugar Weekly Report from November 17th to 21st, 2025" [1] Report Author - Yang Jiangtao [1] 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content 2. Core View of the Report - The current sugar market is in a unilateral downward phase. The core contradiction lies in the global supply surplus (ISO forecasts a surplus of 1.63 million tons in the 25/26 sugar season) and the pressure from the listing of new domestic sugar, coupled with the suppression of increased imports, causing prices to continuously break through key support levels. The short - term downward trend has not been reversed. It is expected that sugar futures will continue to search for a bottom in the next 1 - 2 weeks, and attention should be paid to the performance of the key support level at 5,300 yuan/ton [3] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Market Review 3.1.1 Weekly Review - In the futures market, the closing price of the No. 11 sugar continuous contract decreased by 1.20% from 14.96 to 14.78, and the closing price of the Zhengzhou sugar main contract decreased by 2.14% from 5,470 to 5,353. In the spot market, the current price in Nanning decreased by 3.18% to 5,480, in Liuzhou by 3.19% to 5,470, and in Kunming by 1.26% to 5,470. The current price of Rizhao Lingyunhai remained unchanged at 5,830. The basis between Liuzhou sugar and the main contract narrowed by 35.00% to 117. The number of warehouse receipts decreased by 7.55% to 7,971, and the total of warehouse receipts and valid forecasts decreased by 7.39% to 8,154. The bullish ratio of Zhengzhou sugar decreased by 10 percentage points to 10%, the bearish ratio increased by 10 percentage points to 55%, and the neutral ratio remained unchanged at 35% [5] 3.1.2 Domestic Futures and Spot - Not detailed in the provided content 3.1.3 Raw Sugar Futures - Not detailed in the provided content 3.2 Fundamental Analysis 3.2.1 China's Sugar Production and Sales - Not detailed in the provided content 3.2.2 Production and Sales of Sugarcane Sugar in Major Domestic Producing Areas - Not detailed in the provided content 3.2.3 Production and Sales of Beet Sugar in Major Domestic Producing Areas - Not detailed in the provided content 3.2.4 China's White Sugar Industrial Inventory - Not detailed in the provided content 3.2.5 China's Sugar Imports and Exports - In October, sugar imports reached 750,000 tons, a year - on - year increase of 39.7%. From January to October, cumulative imports increased by 13.8% year - on - year. Imported sugar continues to suppress the domestic market [3] 3.2.6 Major Sugar Importing Countries of China - Not detailed in the provided content 3.2.7 China's Sugar Import Cost and Profit - For Brazilian sugar, the in - quota processing cost increased by 1.60% to 3,929, the out - of - quota processing cost increased by 1.64% to 5,010. The in - quota import profit decreased by 4.02% to 1,910, and the out - of - quota import profit decreased by 10.66% to 830. For Thai sugar, the in - quota processing cost increased by 1.32% to 3,985, the out - of - quota processing cost increased by 1.38% to 5,083. The in - quota import profit decreased by 3.64% to 1,855, and the out - of - quota import profit decreased by 10.20% to 757 [30] 3.3 International Market Fundamentals 3.3.1 Available Sugar Volume in Brazil - Not detailed in the provided content 3.3.2 Sugarcane Crushing Volume in Brazil - Not detailed in the provided content 3.3.3 Sugar Production in Brazil - Not detailed in the provided content 3.3.4 Ethanol Production in Brazil - Not detailed in the provided content 3.3.5 Sugar Imports and Exports in Brazil - Not detailed in the provided content 3.3.6 International Raw Sugar Premiums and Freight Costs - Not detailed in the provided content

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core View of the Report - The five major steel products continued to reduce inventory last week. The inventory decline of rebar expanded, and the fundamentals continued to improve. The inventory of hot-rolled coils changed from increasing to decreasing, and the pressure of inventory accumulation eased. Overall, the inventory pressure of finished steel products was limited, and the price tended to fluctuate within a range. The spot market was stronger than the futures market, and the basis of rebar widened. In the short term, as the overseas interest rate cut expectation rebounds, the market risk appetite increases, and the price forms a certain support at a low level. At the same time, the market expectation of real estate stabilization policies has increased, but the specific situation remains to be observed. The short-term steel price trend is relatively firm and operates in a range [3][9]. Summary by Directory 01 Market Review - Last week, the five major steel products continued to reduce inventory. The inventory decline of rebar expanded, and the fundamentals continued to improve. The inventory of hot-rolled coils changed from increasing to decreasing, and the pressure of inventory accumulation eased. Overall, the inventory pressure of finished steel products was limited, and the price tended to fluctuate within a range. The spot market was stronger than the futures market, and the basis of rebar widened [9]. - The prices of rebar and hot-rolled coils in major cities showed an upward trend, and the prices of imported iron ore also increased slightly. The prices of coking coal decreased, while the prices of coke remained stable. In terms of futures contracts, the prices of some contracts increased, while others decreased. The positions of long and short sides in some contracts decreased. The basis of rebar and hot-rolled coils showed different changes. The inventory of rebar decreased, while the inventory of hot-rolled coils changed from increasing to decreasing [9][10]. 02 Steel Supply and Demand Analysis - **Production**: The production of rebar and hot-rolled coils both increased slightly. The weekly production of rebar blast furnaces was 207.96 million tons (a week-on-week increase of 3.98% and a year-on-year decrease of 11.06%), and the weekly production of national hot-rolled coils was 316.01 million tons (a week-on-week increase of 0.75% and a year-on-year increase of 1.33%). The blast furnace production of rebar increased, while the electric furnace production decreased [13][16][17]. - **Operating Rate**: The blast furnace operating rate decreased, while the electric furnace operating rate increased slightly. The national blast furnace operating rate was 82.19% (a week-on-week decrease of 0.75% and a year-on-year increase of 0.13%), and the electric furnace operating rate was 69.13% (a week-on-week increase of 1.47% and a year-on-year decrease of 0.93%) [23][27]. - **Profit**: The profits of rebar and hot-rolled coils both weakened on a week-on-week basis. The profit of rebar was -30 yuan/ton (a week-on-week decrease of 1 yuan/ton and a year-on-year decrease of 94 yuan/ton), and the profit of hot-rolled coils was -57 yuan/ton (a week-on-week decrease of 16 yuan/ton and a year-on-year decrease of 121 yuan/ton) [28][31]. - **Demand**: The demand for rebar and hot-rolled coils both increased slightly. The apparent consumption of rebar was 230.79 million tons (a week-on-week increase of 6.66% and a year-on-year increase of 2.41%), and the apparent consumption of hot-rolled coils was 324.42 million tons (a week-on-week increase of 3.45% and a year-on-year increase of 1.73%) [32][36]. - **Inventory**: The inventory of rebar decreased, with both factory and social inventories showing a decline. The total inventory of rebar was 553.34 million tons (a week-on-week decrease of 3.96% and a year-on-year increase of 24.32%). The inventory of hot-rolled coils changed from increasing to decreasing, with the social inventory decreasing and the factory inventory remaining stable. The total inventory of hot-rolled coils was 402.11 million tons (a week-on-week decrease of 2.05% and a year-on-year increase of 27.56%) [37][40][41]. - **Downstream Industries**: In the real estate market, the transactions of commercial housing and land both improved on a week-on-week basis. In the automotive market, the production and sales of automobiles in October continued to increase both on a month-on-month and year-on-year basis, setting a new high for the same period in history [46][49][51]. 03 Iron Ore Supply and Demand Analysis - **Supply**: The shipments from Australia and Brazil decreased, while the arrival volume at ports increased. The iron ore price index was 103.71 (a week-on-week increase of 0.62% and a year-on-year increase of 0.94%). The shipments of iron ore from Australia and Brazil were 2637.4 million tons (a week-on-week decrease of 9.32% and a year-on-year increase of 3.52%), and the arrival volume at 45 iron ore ports was 2817.1 million tons (a week-on-week increase of 24.16% and a year-on-year increase of 22.63%) [54][58]. - **Demand**: The daily output of hot metal decreased on a week-on-week basis, while the port clearance volume increased slightly. The daily output of hot metal was 236.28 million tons (a week-on-week decrease of 0.6 million tons and a year-on-year increase of 0.48 million tons), the port clearance volume of 45 iron ore ports was 329.92 million tons (a week-on-week increase of 0.91% and a year-on-year increase of 0.90%), and the inventory-to-sales ratio of 247 steel enterprises was 30.86 days (a week-on-week decrease of 0.52% and a year-on-year decrease of 1.56%) [59][63]. - **Inventory**: The port inventory of iron ore decreased slightly, and the iron ore inventory of steel enterprises also decreased slightly. The inventory at 45 iron ore ports was 15054.65 million tons (a week-on-week decrease of 0.50% and a year-on-year increase of 0.05%), the imported iron ore inventory of 247 steel enterprises was 9001.23 million tons (a week-on-week decrease of 0.82% and a year-on-year decrease of 1.87%), and the average available days of iron ore for 114 steel enterprises was 23.65 days (a week-on-week decrease of 5.25% and a year-on-year increase of 4.05%) [64][69]. 04 Coking Coal and Coke Supply and Demand Analysis - **Supply**: The operating rate of domestic coking coal mines increased, and the customs clearance volume of Mongolian coal was at a high level. The operating rate of coking coal mines was 86.94% (a week-on-week increase of 0.76% and a year-on-year decrease of 4.09%), and the daily average customs clearance volume of Mongolian coal was 18.82 million tons (a week-on-week increase of 5.45% and a year-on-year increase of 12.42%) [71][75]. - **Demand**: The transaction rate of coking coal auctions decreased on a week-on-week basis. The daily transaction rate of coking coal auctions was +37.3% (a week-on-week decrease of 35.52% and a year-on-year decrease of 45.64%), and the weekly transaction rate of coking coal auctions was 59% (a week-on-week decrease of 17.94% and a year-on-year decrease of 15.24%) [76][78]. - **Coking Enterprises**: The profit of coking enterprises was repaired, and the capacity utilization rate increased slightly. The profit per ton of coke for independent coking plants was +19 yuan/ton (a week-on-week increase of 53 yuan/ton and a year-on-year decrease of 7 yuan/ton), and the capacity utilization rate of independent coking plants was 71.71% (a week-on-week increase of 0.10% and a year-on-year decrease of 2.67%) [80][84]. - **Coking Coal Inventory**: The port inventory of coking coal decreased on a week-on-week basis, and the inventory of coking plants also decreased. The coking coal inventory of independent coking plants was 888.87 million tons (a week-on-week decrease of 3.69% and a year-on-year increase of 18.02%), the coking coal inventory of steel plants was 797.30 million tons (a week-on-week increase of 0.88% and a year-on-year increase of 6.89%), and the port inventory of coking coal was 291.5 million tons (a week-on-week decrease of 2.35% and a year-on-year decrease of 37.82%) [85][90]. - **Coke Inventory**: The port inventory of coke decreased, while the inventory of coking plants increased. The coke inventory of independent coking plants was 43.44 million tons (a week-on-week increase of 20.17% and a year-on-year increase of 7.87%), the coke inventory of steel plants was 622.34 million tons (remaining unchanged on a week-on-week basis and a year-on-year increase of 4.48%), and the port inventory of coke was 193 million tons (a week-on-week decrease of 2.92% and a year-on-year increase of 8.93%) [91][96]. - **Spot Price**: After the fourth round of price increases for coke was implemented, the price remained stable for the time being, and the game between steel mills and coking enterprises continued. The price of low-sulfur main coking coal in Shanxi was 1660 yuan/ton (a week-on-week decrease of 40 yuan/ton and a year-on-year increase of 80 yuan/ton), and the ex-factory price of quasi-first-class metallurgical coke was 1540 yuan/ton (in Handan, remaining stable on a week-on-week basis and a year-on-year decrease of 120 yuan/ton) [97][102]. 05 Spread Analysis - The basis of rebar widened, and the 1-5 spreads of rebar and hot-rolled coils both increased. The spread between hot-rolled coils and rebar widened slightly, and the 1-5 spreads of coking coal and coke continued to shrink [104][108].

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content Core Viewpoints - The current lithium carbonate market is in an upward - trending oscillation phase. The core contradiction between bulls and bears lies in the game between the high - level operation of the supply side and the expected production cut in December. Low inventory and demand resilience support prices, but the expected resumption of mining production restricts the upward space. It is expected that the price will oscillate in the range of 85,000 - 88,000 yuan in the short term [2]. - In the next 1 - 2 weeks, lithium carbonate prices are expected to oscillate in the range of 85,000 - 88,000 yuan. It is recommended to buy on dips near support levels [2]. Summary by Directory Lithium Salt Market Introduction - **Lithium Salt Price Changes**: The average price of battery - grade lithium carbonate in the spot market increased by 8.48% week - on - week to 86,950 yuan/ton, and the basis remained at a deep discount of - 410 yuan/ton. The main futures contract rose 6.15% to 87,360 yuan/ton, with an open interest increase of 5.26% to 516,778 lots. The intraday amplitude exceeded 3%, indicating intense long - short competition [2]. - **Lithium Salt Price Table**: The table shows price changes of various lithium salts. For example, the price of lithium carbonate futures rose from 82,300 to 87,360, a 6.15% increase; the delivered price of battery - grade lithium carbonate (electro - carbon) increased from 80,150 to 86,950, an 8.48% increase [4]. - **Lithium Salt Premium and Discount Changes**: Whether classified by raw materials or enterprises, the premium and discount of lithium salts have changed. For example, the premium of spodumene raw materials decreased from - 50 to - 200, a change of - 150 [7]. Lithium Salt Fundamentals - **Supply - Production**: Lithium salt plant capacity utilization remained at a high level of 75.34%. November production is expected to be the same as October, but there is an expected production cut in salt - lake lithium extraction after December. The production of cathode materials such as ternary materials and lithium iron phosphate also increased [2]. - **Demand - Consumption**: Energy - storage cell production increased by 5% year - on - year, and the export proportion of new energy vehicles increased to 44.2%. The monthly production of ternary materials and lithium iron phosphate increased by 1% and 4% respectively [2]. - **Import and Export**: Lithium ore port inventory decreased by 5.62% week - on - week to 84,000 tons, with African raw materials as the main trade flow. Freight rates remained stable. The cost of externally purchased lithium concentrate decreased slightly by 0.12% to 74,687 yuan/ton, and production profit increased significantly by 128.23% to 12,262.8 yuan/ton [2]. - **Inventory**: Social inventory of lithium carbonate has been decreasing for 12 consecutive weeks to a historical low of 124,000 tons, and warehouse - receipt inventory decreased by 0.59% to 27,170 lots [2]. Lithium - Battery Fundamentals - **Market - Cathode Materials**: Information on the market, supply, demand, import and export, cost - profit, and recycling of cathode materials, electrolytes, and new energy vehicles is provided, but specific data details are not fully presented in the summary part [44 - 61].

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core View of the Report - The prices of steel products, iron ore, and coking coal and coke are expected to be volatile and moderately strong in the short term. The five major steel products continue to reduce inventory, and the iron ore and coking coal and coke markets have cost support. The macro - environment has slightly improved risk appetite, and the third round of the fifth batch of central ecological environmental protection inspections has been launched, which may affect steel production [3][4][5]. Summary According to the Table of Contents 1. Market Review - The five major steel products continued to reduce inventory. The decline in rebar demand slowed down, and the decline in inventory increased. The demand for hot - rolled coils changed little, and the decrease in production slowed down the increase in total inventory. The end of the US government "shutdown" slightly improved market risk appetite, and prices were supported at low levels. Futures fluctuated, and most spot prices remained stable [9]. - Spot prices of rebar and hot - rolled coils in some regions increased, and futures prices of related contracts also generally rose. The long and short positions of some contracts decreased, and the basis and spreads of some products changed. Rebar inventory decreased, and hot - rolled coil inventory increased slightly [10]. 2. Steel Supply and Demand Analysis - **Production**: Rebar and hot - rolled coil production both decreased slightly. Rebar blast furnace and electric furnace production decreased. The blast furnace operating rate decreased, and the electric furnace operating rate increased slightly [13][15][17]. - **Profit**: The profits of rebar and hot - rolled coils improved compared with the previous period [27]. - **Demand**: The demand for rebar and hot - rolled coils both decreased slightly. The apparent consumption of rebar and hot - rolled coils decreased, and the 5 - day average of national building materials transactions increased [31]. - **Inventory**: Rebar inventory decreased more, and both factory and social inventories declined. The increase in hot - rolled coil inventory slowed down, with social inventory stable and factory inventory rising slightly [36][40]. - **Downstream**: In the real estate market, the transaction volume of commercial housing and land improved compared with the previous period. In the automotive market, in October 2025, automobile production and sales continued to rise both month - on - month and year - on - year [45][48]. 3. Iron Ore Supply and Demand Analysis - **Supply**: The shipments from Australia and Brazil increased, but the arrival volume at 45 ports decreased significantly [53]. - **Demand**: The daily output of hot metal increased month - on - month, and the port clearance volume continued to increase [58]. - **Inventory**: The port inventory of iron ore continued to rise, and the iron ore inventory of steel enterprises increased slightly [63]. 4. Coking Coal and Coke Supply and Demand Analysis - **Supply**: The operating rate of domestic mines increased, and the customs clearance of Mongolian coal remained at a high level [70]. - **Demand**: The transaction rate of coking coal auctions decreased slightly [75]. - **Coking Enterprises**: The profit of independent coking plants decreased slightly, and the capacity utilization rate decreased slightly [79]. - **Inventory**: The port inventory of coking coal decreased, and the inventory of coking plants decreased slightly. The port inventory of coke decreased, and the inventory of coking plants remained at a low level [84][90]. - **Spot Price**: The fourth round of price increases for coke was implemented, and the game between steel and coke enterprises continued [96]. 5. Spread Analysis - The basis of rebar and hot - rolled coils both decreased, and the 1 - 5 spread of rebar increased slightly. The coil - to - rebar spread decreased slightly, and the 1 - 5 spread of iron ore increased [102][106].