Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core View of the Report The "tariff" negative sentiment in the steel market has been partially released, but uncertainties still remain. The five major steel products continue to reduce inventory. The supply and demand of rebar both increase, with the production increase slightly faster than the demand increase, and the inventory reduction has slowed down. The demand for hot-rolled coils has decreased significantly, and the overall inventory reduction amplitude has further narrowed. There is pressure on export orders in the second quarter. Currently, the inventory contradiction of steel products is limited. After the steel price hit a new annual low, it has stabilized as the macro negative sentiment eases, and it is expected to fluctuate at a low level in the short term. Iron ore shows a pattern of both supply and demand increasing in the short term, and the price tends to fluctuate. The supply of coking coal and coke is loose, and the two are expected to fluctuate at a low level in the short term [3]. Summary According to the Table of Contents 1. Market Review After the Tomb-Sweeping Festival, the tariff impacted the commodity market, and the risk-aversion sentiment pushed up. The black series as a whole declined. The industry continued to reduce inventory. The increase in rebar production was greater than the increase in demand, and the inventory reduction rate slowed down slightly. The demand for hot-rolled coils declined significantly, and the inventory decreased slightly. Under the influence of macro factors, both the futures and spot prices declined, and the basis widened [9]. 2. Steel Supply and Demand Analysis - **Production**: The national weekly rebar production was 2323700 tons (a month-on-month increase of 1.63% and a year-on-year increase of 6.66%), and the weekly hot-rolled coil production was 3133000 tons (a month-on-month decrease of 2.91% and a year-on-year decrease of 2.50%). The blast furnace production of rebar increased slightly, and the electric furnace production increased more significantly. The national blast furnace operating rate was 83.28% (a month-on-month increase of 0.18% and a year-on-year increase of 7.03%), and the electric furnace operating rate was 73.43% (a month-on-month decrease of 0.94% and a year-on-year increase of 9.86%) [14][17][20]. - **Profit**: The rebar profit was +108 yuan/ton (a week-on-week decrease of 8.48% and a year-on-year decrease of 36.47%), and the hot-rolled coil profit was +67 yuan/ton (a week-on-week decrease of 27.17% and a year-on-year decrease of 72.31%) [25]. - **Demand**: The apparent consumption of rebar was 2526800 tons (a month-on-month increase of 1.20% and a year-on-year decrease of 10.26%), and the apparent consumption of hot-rolled coils was 3153300 tons (a month-on-month decrease of 5.11% and a year-on-year decrease of 3.75%) [30]. - **Inventory**: The rebar mill inventory was 2146600 tons (a month-on-month increase of 3.64% and a year-on-year decrease of 8.32%), the social inventory was 5631000 tons (a month-on-month decrease of 4.71% and a year-on-year decrease of 17.24%), and the total inventory was 7777600 tons (a month-on-month decrease of 2.54% and a year-on-year decrease of 27.89%). The hot-rolled coil mill inventory was 862300 tons (a month-on-month increase of 1.15% and a year-on-year decrease of 1.82%), the social inventory was 2980800 tons (a month-on-month decrease of 1.0% and a year-on-year decrease of 9.64%), and the total inventory was 3843100 tons (a month-on-month decrease of 0.53% and a year-on-year decrease of 8.53%) [35][40]. - **Downstream**: In the real estate sector, the weekly data showed that the transaction area of commercial housing in 30 large and medium-sized cities decreased by 9.74% month-on-month and 20.47% year-on-year, and the transaction land area in 100 large and medium-sized cities decreased by 52.60% month-on-month after the festival and 31.20% year-on-year. In the automotive sector, in March 2025, automobile production and sales reached 3.006 million and 2.915 million vehicles respectively, with month-on-month increases of 42.9% and 37% and year-on-year increases of 11.9% and 8.2% respectively. The cumulative automobile production and sales reached 7.561 million and 7.47 million vehicles respectively, with year-on-year increases of 14.5% and 11.2% respectively [43][46]. 3. Iron Ore Supply and Demand Analysis - **Supply**: The shipments from Australia and Brazil increased, and the arrival volume at ports increased significantly. The iron ore price index was 97.74 (a month-on-month decrease of 4.99% and a year-on-year decrease of 6.02%). The shipments from 19 ports in Australia and Brazil were 24.348 million tons (a month-on-month increase of 1.75% and a year-on-year increase of 26.85%), and the arrival volume at 45 ports was 25.255 million tons (a month-on-month increase of 15.39% and a year-on-year decrease of 0.11%) [54]. - **Demand**: The daily pig iron production continued to increase, and the port clearance volume increased slightly. The daily pig iron production was 2.4022 million tons (a month-on-month increase of 14900 tons and a year-on-year increase of 154700 tons), the port clearance volume of iron ore at 45 ports was 3.1805 million tons (a month-on-month increase of 0.15% and a year-on-year decrease of 0.37%), and the inventory-to-sales ratio of 247 steel enterprises was 30.46 days (a month-on-month decrease of 1.84% and a year-on-year decrease of 9.88%) [58]. - **Inventory**: The iron ore port inventory decreased slightly, and the steel enterprise inventory decreased. The iron ore inventory at 45 ports was 143.4102 million tons (a month-on-month decrease of 0.88% and a year-on-year decrease of 1.01%), the imported iron ore inventory of 247 steel enterprises was 90.7713 million tons (a month-on-month decrease of 1.03% and a year-on-year decrease of 2.60%), and the average available days of iron ore for 114 steel enterprises was 23.84 days (a month-on-month decrease of 2.26% and a year-on-year increase of 4.93%) [64]. 4. Coking Coal and Coke Supply and Demand Analysis - **Supply**: The operating rate of domestic mines continued to increase, and the customs clearance of Mongolian coal remained at a high level. The operating rate of coking coal mines was 87.16% (a month-on-month increase of 0.97% and a year-on-year increase of 2.29%), the operating rate of coal washing plants was 62.7% (a month-on-month increase of 3.18% and a year-on-year decrease of 6.32%), and the daily customs clearance volume of Mongolian coal was 181000 tons (a month-on-month increase of 52.39% and a year-on-year increase of 116%) [70]. - **Demand**: The daily transaction rate of coking coal decreased. The daily transaction rate of coking coal auctions was 56.22% (a week-on-week decrease of 38.47% and a year-on-year decrease of 40.56%), and the weekly transaction rate was 92.37% (a week-on-week increase of 11.36% and a year-on-year increase of 34.45%) [73]. - **Coking Enterprises**: The profit improved month-on-month, and the capacity utilization rate increased slightly. The profit per ton of coke for independent coking plants was -49 yuan/ton (a month-on-month increase of 4 yuan/ton and a year-on-year increase of 106 yuan/ton), the capacity utilization rate was 72.96% (a month-on-month increase of 0.39% and a year-on-year increase of 14.23%), and the coke capacity utilization rate of steel mills was 87.44% [79]. - **Coking Coal Inventory**: The port inventory increased month-on-month, and the inventory accumulation of coking plants slowed down. The coking coal inventory of independent coking plants was 8.1453 million tons (a month-on-month increase of 1.31% and a year-on-year increase of 26.61%), the coking coal inventory of steel mills was 7.7947 million tons (a month-on-month increase of 1.26% and a year-on-year increase of 6.32%), and the coking coal port inventory was 3.4892 million tons (a month-on-month increase of 0.39% and a year-on-year increase of 71.19%) [85]. - **Coke Inventory**: The coking plants slightly reduced inventory, and the port inventory continued to increase. The coke inventory of independent coking plants was 659000 tons (a month-on-month decrease of 0.71% and a year-on-year increase of 4.73%), the coke inventory of steel mills was 6.6799 million tons (a month-on-month decrease of 0.73% and a year-on-year increase of 11.55%), and the coke port inventory was 2.3309 million tons (a month-on-month increase of 7.35% and a year-on-year increase of 12.44%) [91]. - **Spot Price**: The price of coking coal increased slightly, and the first round of price increase for coke has not been implemented yet. The price of low-sulfur main coking coal in Shanxi was 1320 yuan/ton (a week-on-week increase of 30 yuan/ton and a year-on-year decrease of 430 yuan/ton), and the ex-factory price of quasi-primary metallurgical coke in Lvliang was 1150 yuan/ton (unchanged month-on-month and a year-on-year decrease of 350 yuan/ton) [97]. 5. Spread Analysis - The basis of rebar has shrunk, and the spread between the 05 and 10 contracts of rebar has also shrunk. - The spread between the 05 and 09 contracts of iron ore has slightly widened, and the spread between hot-rolled coils and rebar has shrunk [99][104].

投资咨询业务资格 证监发【2014】217号 指数先抑后扬 四月合约即将到期 ——股指期权周报2025.4.14 研究员 ：丁文 联系方式：0371-68599112 电子邮箱：dingw_qh@ccnew.com 执业证书编号：F3066473 投资咨询编号：Z0014838 上交所期权策略顾问：YZ16008281 本期观点 | 品种 | 主要逻辑 | 策略建议 | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | | 趋势策略 | 波动率策略 | | | 清明假期后，市场受美关税政策大幅低开，A股本周先抑后扬，市场成交较节前放 | | | | | 大。沪深300指数日线探底回升，日三彩K线指标维持绿色；周线锤子线结构，周三彩K | | | | | 线指标维持绿色。IF期货当月合约贴水标的基差扩大，次月合约贴水当月合约基差扩大。 | | | | | 期权IO成交量放大，持仓量回升，期权成交量PCR先升后降，期权持仓量PCR先降后升， | | | | | 隐含波动率较清明节前上升，看涨、看跌期权最大持仓量行权价间距拉大。中证1000指 | | | | | 数先抑后扬，日三彩K线指标维持绿色；周 ...

投资咨询业务资格 证监发【2014】217号 纯碱玻璃周报——2025.04.14 中原期货研究所：化工组 | 作者：刘培洋 | 研究助理：申文 | | --- | --- | | 执业证书编号：F0290318 | 执业证书编号： F03117458 | | 投资咨询编号：Z0011155 | 0371-58620081 | | liupy_qh@ccnew.com | shenwen_qh@ccnew.com | 01 周度观点汇总 3 1.1 纯碱周度观点——供应压力明显回升，需求改善较为有限 品种 主要逻辑 策略建议 风险提示 纯碱 1.供应 装置开工率88.05%（+2.96%），氨碱法87.32%（环比-0.80%），联碱法85.13%（+5.42%)；周 产量73.77万吨（+2.47万吨），轻碱产量33.38万吨（+0.99万吨），重碱产量40.39万吨（+1.48 万吨）。 2.需求 纯碱表需74.61万吨（+10.45万吨），轻碱表需32.47万吨（+1.29万吨），重碱表需42.14万 吨（+9.71万吨）。 3.库存 纯碱企业库存169.30万吨（-0.84万吨），轻碱库存86.35万 ...

投资咨询业务资格 证监发【2014】217号 综合施策应对挑战 关注阶段反弹机会 ——股指周报2025.04.14 01 02 Content 行情回顾 宏观分析 03 市场情绪 01 行情回顾 周度行情回顾 客服中心 ：李卫红 联系方式：0371-68599157 电子邮箱：liwh_qh@ccnew.com 投资咨询编号：Z0017812 本期观点 | 品种 | 主要逻辑 | 策略建议 | 风险提示 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | 1、香港万得通讯社报道，4月13日，商务部新闻发言人就美方豁免部分产品的"对等关 中方对中美经贸关系的立场是一贯的。贸易战没有赢家，保护主义没有出路。中国有 | 操作上，沪指在前 回补，或依旧面临 注意减仓后，注意 不 跌 破 前 | | | | 税"答记者问。有记者问：美方近日宣布豁免部分产品"对等关税"，中方对此有何评价？ | | | | | 答：美东时间4月12日，美方公布相关备忘录，豁免计算机、智能手机、半导体制造设 | | | | | 备、集成电路等部分产品的"对等关税"，中方正在对有关影响进行评估。 | | | | | 我们注意到，这 ...

投资咨询业务资格 证监发【2014】217号 【中原化工】 关注夏季肥表现及宏观影响 ——尿素周报2025.04.14 中原期货研究所：化工组 作者：刘培洋 研究助理：申文 执业证书编号：F0290318 执业证书编号： F03117458 投资咨询编号：Z0011155 0371-58620083 0371-58620081 liupy_qh@ccnew.com shenwen_qh@ccnew.com 01 周度观点汇总 3 0 200 400 600 800 1000 1200 2019-11-25 2020-2-12 2020-5-1 2020-7-19 2020-10-6 2020-12-24 2021-3-13 2021-5-31 2021-8-18 2021-11-5 2022-1-23 2022-4-12 2022-6-30 2022-9-17 2022-12-5 2023-2-22 2023-5-12 2023-7-30 2023-10-17 2024-1-4 2024-3-23 2024-6-10 2024-8-28 2024-11-15 2025-2-2 2025-4-22 2025-7 ...

中原期货研究所 晨会纪要 2025 第（65）期 发布日期：2025-04-14 | | | | 商品指数每日市场跟踪 | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 宏观指标 | | 2025/4/14 08:00 | 2025/4/11 15:00 | 涨 跌 | 涨跌幅/% | | 道琼斯工业指数 | | 40212.71 | 39593.66 | 619.050 | 1.564 | | 纳斯达克指数 | | 16724.46 | 16387.31 | 337.150 | 2.057 | | 标普500 | | 5363.36 | 5268.05 | 95.310 | 1.809 | | 恒生指数 | | 20914.69 | 20681.78 | 232.910 | 1.126 | | SHIBOR隔夜 | | 1.61 | 1.61 | 0.002 | 0.124 | | 美元指数 | | 99.96 | 99.79 | 0.174 | 0.174 | | 美元兑人民币(CFETS) | | 7.32 | 7.32 | 0 | 0 | | 主力合约 | | ...

投资咨询业务资格 证监发【2014】217号 市场价格走弱，关注下方支撑 ——烧碱周报2025.04.14 作者： 刘培洋 联系方式：0371-58620083 电子邮箱：liupy_qh@ccnew.com 执业证书编号：F0290318 投资咨询编号：Z0011155 本期观点 | 品种 | 主要逻辑 | 策略建议 | 风险提示 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | 1、宏观：美国关税政策端利空逐步被市场消化，后续重点关注关税 | | | | | 谈判情况以及关税政策对经济的影响情况。 | | 1、国内外宏 | | | 2、供需面：华东市场本周部分氯碱装置进入检修，但整体影响程度 | 烧碱2505合约 | 观政策及经 | | | 相对有限，市场恐跌氛围延续，预估液碱行情仍偏弱下行。目前 | 上方参考压力 | 济数据变化； | | 烧碱 | 部分耗氯下游亏损导致需求减弱下，液氯短期看跌，考虑氯碱成本 | 位2500元/吨 | 2、企业装置 | | | 利润，预计后期烧碱跌幅缩小，观望供应端回归后市场的反应，短 | 一线，下方支 | | | | | | 检修情况； | | | 期内走 ...

投资咨询业务资格 证监发【2014】217号 关税政策不断变化，引领市场剧烈波动 ——铜铝周报2025.04.14 作者： 刘培洋 联系方式：0371-58620083 电子邮箱：liupy_qh@ccnew.com 执业证书编号：F0290318 投资咨询编号：Z0011155 本期观点 | 品种 | 主要逻辑 | 策略建议 | 风险提示 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | 1、宏观面：美国关税政策端利空逐步被市场消化，后续重点关注关 | 沪铜2506合约 | | | | 税谈判情况以及关税政策对经济的影响情况。 | 上方参考压力 | 1、国内外宏 | | | 2、基本面：当前国内铜精矿加工费仍然处于负值，铜价高位回落后， | 位78500元/吨 | 观政策及经 | | 铜 | 终端消费有所恢复，社会库存延续性去库；截至4月10日，全国主流 | 一线，下方参 | 济数据变化； | | | 地区铜库存降至26.72万吨，连续六周去库。 | 考支撑位 | 2、国外铜矿 | | | 3、整体逻辑：清明节后铜价大跌已经兑现美国关税利空影响，但关 | 73000元/吨一 | 供应因素。 | ...

中原期货研究所 2025 第（64）期 发布日期：2025-04-11 | | | | 商品指数每日市场跟踪 | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 宏观指标 | | 2025/4/11 08:00 | 2025/4/10 15:00 | 涨 跌 | 涨跌幅/% | | 道琼斯工业指数 | | 39593.66 | 40608.45 | -1014.790 | -2.499 | | 纳斯达克指数 | | 16387.31 | 17124.97 | -737.660 | -4.308 | | 标普500 | | 5268.05 | 5456.90 | -188.850 | -3.461 | | 恒生指数 | | 20681.78 | 20264.49 | 417.290 | 2.059 | | SHIBOR隔夜 | | 1.61 | 1.74 | -0.134 | -7.697 | | 美元指数 | | 100.68 | 100.94 | -0.257 | -0.255 | | 美元兑人民币(CFETS) | | 7.34 | 7.34 | 0 | 0 | | ...

中原期货研究所 公司官方微信 1 投资咨询业务资格 晨会纪要 2025 第（63）期 发布日期：2025-04-10 | | | | 商品指数每日市场跟踪 | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 宏观指标 | | 2025/4/10 08:00 | 2025/4/9 15:00 | 涨 跌 | 涨跌幅/% | | 道琼斯工业指数 | | 40608.45 | 37645.59 | 2962.860 | 7.870 | | 纳斯达克指数 | | 17124.97 | 15267.91 | 1857.060 | 12.163 | | 标普500 | | 5456.90 | 4982.77 | 474.130 | 9.515 | | 恒生指数 | | 20264.49 | 20127.68 | 136.810 | 0.680 | | SHIBOR隔夜 | | 1.74 | 1.74 | -0.003 | -0.172 | | 美元指数 | | 103.01 | 103.00 | 0.005 | 0.005 | | 美元兑人民币(CFETS) | | 7.35 | ...