1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The egg market is currently characterized by high overall production capacity, with a slowdown in recent new replenishment. The supply - side pressure is gradually weakening, while the demand has improved but the marginal support is weakening, requiring new demand from tourism and Mid - Autumn Festival stocking. - The cost of feed has slightly declined, with the current feed cost around 2.5 yuan per catty and the comprehensive breeding cost around 2.8 yuan per catty. Egg prices have returned above the feed breeding cost seasonally, and profits have improved. - The spot market will still receive seasonal demand support after a short - term release of the decline sentiment, but the futures premium is obvious, and it is difficult to follow the spot rebound. As the delivery month approaches, the main 09 contract may decline to repair the basis, and attention should be paid to reverse spread opportunities. [3] 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Futures Review - Last week, egg futures maintained a weak oscillation, and the overall weakness remained unchanged. The biggest contradiction in the market is the large basis, with obvious selling pressure and weak willingness to take delivery. [6] Spot Review - Last week, egg spot prices maintained a weak adjustment and stabilized over the weekend. The sales areas started to sell at low prices, and the market began to accept the goods. After this round of adjustment, the spot prices will be supported by the start of school for students and Mid - Autumn Festival deep - processing stocking. Attention should be paid to the rebound height. [13] Supply - Newly - added capacity: From August to November 2025, the newly - opened production corresponds to the replenishment volume from April to July 2025, and the newly - added capacity will decline significantly. - Elimination capacity: From August to November 2025, the normal elimination capacity corresponds to the replenishment volume from March to June 2024. The data shows a high elimination volume, but the current data indicates obvious delayed elimination. - Laying hen inventory: The inventory data continues to increase slightly, but it will start to decrease in September. The newly - added capacity is stable with a slight decline, and the elimination is relatively slow. The overall supply pressure still exists. [16] Elimination End - The price of eliminated chickens is 5.51 yuan per catty (- 0.27). The elimination volume has significantly decreased. The peak season and a slight price rebound limit the enthusiasm for elimination. The average elimination age is 502 days, remaining unchanged, and the overall age has reached the normal range, but the elimination of backward production capacity is not ideal. [19] Seasonal Factors - It is the seasonal peak season. On the production area side, the inventory pressure in the production areas has increased, high temperatures have reduced the laying rate and increased costs. On the consumption side, the arrival of the tourism peak season combined with deep - processing has improved the overall demand. [21] Cost & Profit - Cost side: Corn prices are running at a high level, and soybean meal prices have steadily declined. The overall cost remains volatile. The current feed cost is around 2.5 yuan per catty, and the comprehensive breeding cost is around 2.8 yuan per catty. - Breeding profit: Recently, egg prices have risen, and the spot price has returned above the feed cost. However, the overall comprehensive breeding profit is still in a loss, showing a seasonal bottom - rebounding trend. Attention should be paid to the negative feedback on backward production capacity. [27] Capital and Market - Capital has increased at a high level, and market competition has intensified. Bears believe that the production capacity is high, there is seasonal suppression, and the futures premium over the spot still has room to decline. Bulls believe that the valuation is low, and the seasonality is about to turn from weak to strong, making it valuable to go long. Currently, the reality is stronger than expectations, with obvious futures premium over the spot and obvious selling pressure in the market, waiting for the cycle conversion. [30] Basis and Spread - Basis: The basis is negative, and the overall futures are at a premium. The current basis is running at a low level, waiting for the basis to strengthen with the arrival of the peak season, which is more likely to be achieved through a decline in futures prices. - Spread: It shows that supply exceeds demand. The near - month contracts in the market are constantly repairing the basis through price declines, and the far - month contracts face the expectation of reduced production capacity, with a focus on reverse spread operations. [32][34]

Group 1: Report Investment Rating - There is no information about the industry investment rating in the report. Group 2: Core Viewpoints - This week, the domestic urea spot market price showed a weak trend. The current daily production will fluctuate around 190,000 - 200,000 tons. In August, many previously shut - down plants are expected to resume production, and some new capacity plants are expected to be put into operation, so the supply pressure is expected to increase. On the demand side, the production start - up of autumn compound fertilizers continues to increase, but the downstream dealers' enthusiasm for picking up goods is insufficient, and the finished product inventory still faces great pressure. In the short term, the high inventory of autumn fertilizers suppresses the production enthusiasm of enterprises, and the support for the procurement demand of urea raw materials is weak. The futures price may continue to fluctuate weakly, and the market should pay attention to the support level performance around 1,680 - 1,700 yuan/ton on the disk [4]. Group 3: Summary by Directory 01 Week - ly Viewpoint Summary - **Supply**: In August, many plants are expected to resume production, and the supply is expected to increase [4]. - **Demand**: The start - up of autumn fertilizers has increased, but the finished product inventory pressure is still large [4]. - **Inventory**: The inventory of upstream urea enterprises decreased slightly on a week - on - week basis [4]. - **Cost and Profit**: The upward trend of coal prices has slowed down, and the urea profit decreased slightly on a week - on - week basis [4]. - **Basis and Spread**: The 9 - 1 spread fluctuated strongly, and the change in the 09 basis was limited [4]. - **Overall Logic**: The domestic urea spot market price was weak this week. Supply pressure is expected to increase, while demand is constrained by high inventory. The futures price may continue to fluctuate weakly, and attention should be paid to the support level around 1,680 - 1,700 yuan/ton [4]. 02 Variety Details Decomposition - **2.1 This week, the domestic urea market price changed from strong to weak**: There are price trend charts of urea in Shandong, Shanxi, Henan, Hebei, Anhui, and Northeast China from 2021 - 2025 [6][7][8]. - **2.2 On August 4, the lowest CFR price of the Indian tender on the east coast was $532/ton**: There are charts showing international urea prices, price differences between FOB China and other regions, and export price differences from 2019 - 2025 [10][11][12]. - **2.3 Supply - In August, many plants are expected to resume production, and the supply is expected to increase**: The weekly urea production was 1.3548 million tons (+0.01%), including 1.0451 million tons of coal - based urea production (-1.62%) and 309,700 tons of gas - based urea production (+5.92%), with an average daily production of 194,000 tons. There are also plans for plant overhauls and historical data on overhaul losses [16][20][23]. - **2.4 Inventory - The inventory of upstream urea enterprises decreased slightly on a week - on - week basis**: The urea enterprise inventory was 887,600 tons, a week - on - week decrease of 29,700 tons. The port inventory was 483,000 tons (a week - on - week decrease of 10,000 tons), and some goods were shipped out of the port. The mainstream advance receipt days of urea enterprises were 6.53 days (+6.7% week - on - week), and the number of days of orders to be delivered by enterprises increased slightly [27][31]. - **2.5 Demand - The start - up of autumn fertilizers has increased, but the finished product inventory pressure is still large**: The operating rate of compound fertilizer enterprises was 41.50% (+2.82%), and the finished product inventory was 800,400 tons (a week - on - week increase of 23,200 tons). The operating rate of melamine was 63.50% (-1.70%), with a slight decline [33][34]. - **2.6 Raw Material - The upward trend of coal prices has slowed down**: There are price trend charts of various types of coal such as Yulin thermal coal, Yangquan bituminous coal fines, etc. from 2021 - 2025 [36][37]. - **2.7 Profit - The urea profit decreased slightly on a week - on - week basis**: There are charts showing the production gross profit of urea fixed - bed devices from 2021 - 2025 [42][43]. - **2.8 Spread Analysis - The 9 - 1 spread fluctuated strongly, and the change in the 09 basis was limited**: There are charts showing the 9 - 1 spread and 09 basis from 2021 - 2025 [45][46][47]. - **2.10 Urea - related Product Spreads**: There are charts showing the price differences between liquid ammonia and urea, urea and ammonium chloride, etc. from 2021 - 2025 [53][52].

Report Title - "Coal Strength Boosts, Alloy Center of Gravity Lifted - Ferroalloy Weekly Report 20250811" [1] 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content 2. Report's Core View - For ferrosilicon, last week affected by coal over - production verification news, coal and coke strengthened again, driving the black series to stop falling. Ferrosilicon first rose then fell during the week, with its center of gravity continuing to rise. Production increased significantly, demand remained weak in the off - season, and recent macro and coal industry policies dominated the market. It's recommended to take an interval - oscillation approach in the short term, with the lower support around 5500 - 5600 [4]. - For silicomanganese, last week it also showed a firm trend due to coal news. Production continued to rise, demand was weak in the off - season, and recent macro and coal industry policies led the market. It should be treated with an interval - oscillation mindset in the short term, with the lower support around 5750 - 6000 [25]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Ferrosilicon 3.1.1 Supply - 136 independent ferrosilicon enterprises had a weekly output of 10.91 tons (up 4.5% MoM, up 7.3% YoY). In July 2025, the ferrosilicon output was 44.67 tons (up 7.88% MoM, down 11.92% YoY), with an expanding increase and a positive YoY growth [7]. 3.1.2 Demand - The ferrosilicon consumption of five major steel products was 2.02 tons (up 1.7% MoM, up 15.4% YoY), and the weekly output of five major steel products was 869.21 tons (up 0.21% MoM, up 10.94% YoY), showing a weak - stable state [10]. 3.1.3 Inventory - The enterprise inventory was 7.17 tons (up 9.42% MoM, up 26.3% YoY), and the steel mill inventory in July was 14.25 days (down 1.13 days MoM, down 0.98 days YoY), indicating that manufacturers were accumulating inventory [13]. 3.1.4 Cost - The prices of most raw materials remained stable during the week. The cost of ferrosilicon in Qinghai, Ningxia, and Inner Mongolia slightly increased by about 0.4%, while the profit decreased, with the profit in Qinghai down 31.85%, in Ningxia down 91.97%, and in Inner Mongolia down 37.70% [17]. 3.1.5 Futures - Spot Relationship - The ferrosilicon warehouse - receipt quantity was 19646 (down 2396 MoM, up 4999 YoY), and the basis of the 09 contract in Ningxia was - 22 yuan/ton, down 240 yuan/ton MoM, showing a slight premium of the futures price [20]. 3.1.6 Contract Position and Precipitated Funds - Relevant data on contract position and precipitated funds are presented in graphical form, but specific numerical summaries are not provided in the text [22] 3.2 Silicomanganese 3.2.1 Supply - 121 independent silicomanganese enterprises had a weekly output of 19.58 tons (up 2.6% MoM, down 7.2% YoY). In July, the national silicomanganese output was 81.96 tons (up 8.9% MoM, down 17% YoY), with profit driving the increase in production [28]. 3.2.2 Demand - The weekly consumption of silicomanganese was 12.52 tons (up 1.2% MoM, up 5.2% YoY), and the weekly output of five major steel products was 869.21 tons (up 0.21% MoM, up 10.94% YoY), showing a stable - increasing state [31]. 3.2.3 Inventory - The enterprise sample inventory was 16.4 tons (down 20% MoM, down 11.6% YoY), and the steel mill inventory in July was 14.24 days (down 1.25 days MoM, down 1.19 days YoY), with the decline rate of manufacturers' inventory slowing down [34]. 3.2.4 Futures - Spot Relationship - The silicomanganese warehouse - receipt quantity was 76045 (down 1809 MoM, down 61502 YoY), and the 09 basis in Inner Mongolia was 104 yuan/ton, down 4 yuan/ton MoM, with the warehouse - receipt quantity steadily decreasing [38]. 3.2.5 Cost - The prices of most raw materials were stable, while the price of manganese ore slightly decreased. The cost of silicomanganese in Ningxia, Inner Mongolia, Guangxi, and Guizhou decreased by about 0.4%, and the profit increased, with the profit in Ningxia up 56.47%, in Inner Mongolia up 29.00%, in Guangxi up 14.31%, and in Guizhou up 22.62% [41]. 3.2.6 Contract Position and Precipitated Funds - Relevant data on contract position and precipitated funds are presented in graphical form, but specific numerical summaries are not provided in the text [43]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Views of the Report Copper - **Logic**: Macroeconomic factors include China's export growth in July exceeding expectations, the impact of US tariff policies yet to be seen, and market expectations of a Fed rate cut within the year. Fundamentally, high - end copper supply is scarce, imported low - price supplies are limited, and demand is suppressed by high prices. As of August 7, copper inventory rose to 132,000 tons. The implementation of US copper tariffs and high inventory are pressuring prices [4]. - **Strategy**: Wait for the price to stabilize. The upper reference pressure level for the SHFE Copper 2509 contract is 80,000 yuan/ton, and the lower reference support level is 76,000 yuan/ton [4]. Electrolytic Aluminum - **Logic**: Macroeconomic factors are similar to copper. Fundamentally, production is slightly increasing, costs are stable, and profits are high. However, demand is weak due to the off - season, and social inventory has exceeded 550,000 tons. Aluminum prices may remain high and volatile, and attention should be paid to the "Golden September and Silver October" demand [6]. - **Strategy**: The upper reference pressure level for the SHFE Aluminum 2509 contract is 21,000 yuan/ton, and the lower reference support level is 20,200 yuan/ton [6]. Alumina - **Logic**: Macroeconomic factors are the same as above. Fundamentally, the weekly operating rate rose to 82.57% as of August 7, and the market is in an oversupply situation with high downstream inventory. Alumina may oscillate within a range [8]. - **Strategy**: The upper reference pressure level for the Alumina 2509 contract is 3,600 yuan/ton, and the lower reference support level is 3,000 yuan/ton [8]. 3. Summary by Directory 01. Market Review - **Weekly Price Changes**: Provided the 8.4 - 8.8 weekly cumulative price change statistics for various metals such as copper, aluminum, and zinc [16]. - **Weekly News**: Included events like Codelco's suspension of ore processing due to a tunnel collapse, changes in Chile's copper exports, US copper tariffs, Century Aluminum's plan to restart production, and changes in US aluminum imports [17]. 02. Macroeconomic Analysis - **Domestic Data**: In July, China's CPI increased by 0.4% month - on - month and was flat year - on - year, while the core CPI increased by 0.8% year - on - year. PPI decreased by 0.2% month - on - month and 3.6% year - on - year. Exports in July exceeded expectations, but there is a possibility of a decline in the future [19][21]. - **Macroeconomic Forecast**: Provided domestic and foreign economic data forecasts from August 11 - 15, including China's money supply, real estate investment, and US CPI, PPI, etc. [24]. 03. Copper Market Analysis - **Spot Market**: The processing fee TC rebounded from a low level [28]. - **Futures Market**: The net long position in COMEX copper dropped significantly [31]. - **Overseas Market**: The price difference between US copper and LME copper returned to normal [35]. - **Inventory**: As of August 7, the SMM national mainstream area copper inventory was 132,000 tons, with a significant weekly increase. The开工 rate of domestic major refined copper rod enterprises decreased to 68.86% from August 1 - 7, and is expected to increase to 70.79% from August 8 - 14 [41]. 04. Electrolytic Aluminum Market Analysis - **Domestic Market**: The spot discount widened [45]. - **Foreign Market**: The US dollar index weakened [47]. - **Inventory**: Various inventory data for electrolytic aluminum, including social inventory, aluminum rod inventory, etc., were provided [49]. - **Downstream Operations**: As of July 31, the overall operating rate of domestic aluminum downstream processing industries rose to 58.7%. Different sectors had different performance, and the operating rate is expected to rise slightly to 59% this week [51]. - **Recycled Aluminum Alloy**: As of August 7, the SMM ADC12 price was 20,250 yuan/ton. Cost pressure increased, demand was weak, and inventory growth slowed down [54]. - **Cost and Profit**: The cost and profit data of electrolytic aluminum were presented [58]. 05. Alumina Market Analysis - **Spot Market**: The spot price remained stable [62]. - **Futures Market**: The inventory of futures was at a low level [63]. - **Supply and Demand**: Supply changes were limited, with some regional imbalances. Demand increased slightly due to the increase in electrolytic aluminum operating capacity [68]. - **Cost and Profit**: As of August 8, the domestic alumina industry cost was 2,977.79 yuan/ton, and the average profit was 292.69 yuan/ton [69].

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The steel market is in a state of slight inventory accumulation during the off - season, but steel prices still have upward drivers. The overall inventory accumulation pressure of steel is not large. Considering the expected production cuts in Beijing - Tianjin - Hebei and surrounding provinces before the September military parade and the potential for terminal demand to form restocking support during the off - peak to peak season transition, steel prices are expected to have limited short - term decline space and medium - term upward drivers [3]. - The iron ore market has limited short - term supply pressure, and the inventory has no obvious accumulation pressure. It follows the changes in macro - policy expectations and market sentiment. With the transition from the off - season to the peak season, terminal demand remains resilient, and there are still opportunities for medium - term low - buying [4]. - The coking coal and coke market is firm. Coking coal mines in some areas have production cuts, and Mongolian coal customs clearance is at a high level. After the fifth round of coke price increases, the profitability has improved, and the sixth round of price increases has been initiated. With high iron - water production supporting raw materials, there is still upward space [5]. Summary According to the Table of Contents 1. Market Review - The coking coal and coke market is firm, and steel prices are oscillating. Last week, there were many disturbances in coking coal supply news. Supported by high iron - water production, the coking coal and coke market was strong, forming cost support. The industrial structure continued to have slight inventory accumulation during the off - season, exports remained resilient, and the market sentiment was optimistic, with prices showing slight oscillating adjustments [9]. 2. Steel Supply and Demand Analysis - **Production**: National weekly production of rebar was 221.18 million tons (up 4.79% week - on - week and 31.23% year - on - year), and that of hot - rolled coils was 314.89 million tons (down 2.45% week - on - week and up 3.73% year - on - year). Both blast - furnace and electric - furnace rebar production increased [13][16][18]. - **Operating Rate**: The national blast - furnace operating rate was 83.75% (up 0.35% week - on - week and 3.04% year - on - year), and the electric - furnace operating rate was 74.9% (up 0.93% week - on - week and 36.98% year - on - year) [24][28]. - **Profit**: Rebar profit was + 177 yuan/ton (up 22.03% week - on - week and 289 yuan/ton year - on - year), and hot - rolled coil profit was + 188 yuan/ton (down 10.05% week - on - week and up 303 yuan/ton year - on - year) [29][32]. - **Demand**: Rebar apparent consumption was 210.79 million tons (up 3.63% week - on - week and 7.57% year - on - year), and hot - rolled coil apparent consumption was 306.21 million tons (down 4.31% week - on - week and up 2.58% year - on - year) [33][37]. - **Inventory**: Rebar total inventory was 556.68 million tons (up 1.90% week - on - week and down 22.70% year - on - year), and hot - rolled coil total inventory was 356.63 million tons (up 2.49% week - on - week and down 18.46% year - on - year) [38][41][46]. - **Downstream**: In the real - estate market, the weekly transaction area of commercial housing in 30 large - and medium - sized cities increased by 15.22% week - on - week and decreased by 15.43% year - on - year. The transaction area of land in 100 large - and medium - sized cities increased by 19.91% week - on - week and 13.12% year - on - year. In June 2025, automobile production and sales were 2.794 million and 2.904 million respectively, with month - on - month growth of 5.5% and 8.1% and year - on - year growth of 11.4% and 13.8% [47][50][53]. 3. Iron Ore Supply and Demand Analysis - **Supply**: The shipment volume from 19 ports in Australia and Brazil was 24.639 million tons (down 7.99% week - on - week and 2.84% year - on - year), and the arrival volume at 45 iron - ore ports was 25.078 million tons (up 11.93% week - on - week and down 3.94% year - on - year) [56][61]. - **Demand**: Daily iron - water production was 2.4032 million tons (down 0.39 million tons week - on - week and up 0.862 million tons year - on - year), and the ore - handling volume at 45 iron - ore ports was 3.2185 million tons (up 6.32% week - on - week and 1.58% year - on - year) [62][66]. - **Inventory**: The inventory at 45 iron - ore ports was 137.1227 million tons (up 0.40% week - on - week and down 8.80% year - on - year), and the imported iron - ore inventory of 247 steel enterprises was 90.1334 million tons (up 0.01% week - on - week and down 0.36% year - on - year) [67][72]. 4. Coking Coal and Coke Supply and Demand Analysis - **Supply**: The operating rate of coking coal mines was 83.89% (down 2.80% week - on - week and 6.58% year - on - year), the capacity utilization rate of coal - washing plants was 36.22% (up 3.40% week - on - week and down 17.36% year - on - year), and the daily Mongolian coal customs clearance volume was 142,300 tons (up 23.56% week - on - week and 1.05% year - on - year) [74][78]. - **Coking Enterprises**: The profit per ton of coke in independent coking plants was - 16 yuan/ton (up 29 yuan/ton week - on - week and down 18 yuan/ton year - on - year), and the capacity utilization rate was 74.03% (up 0.46% week - on - week and 0.42% year - on - year) [82][86]. - **Coking Coal Inventory**: The coking coal inventory of independent coking plants was 8.3304 million tons (down 1.31% week - on - week and up 18.21% year - on - year), that of steel mills was 8.0848 million tons (up 0.61% week - on - week and 11.59% year - on - year), and the coking coal port inventory was 2.7734 million tons (down 1.69% week - on - week and 11.24% year - on - year) [87][92]. - **Coke Inventory**: The coke inventory of independent coking plants was 446,300 tons (down 4.06% week - on - week and up 1.39% year - on - year), that of steel mills was 6.1928 million tons (down 1.18% week - on - week and up 15.49% year - on - year), and the coke port inventory was 2.1815 million tons (up 1.42% week - on - week and 15.29% year - on - year) [93][98]. - **Spot Price**: The price of low - sulfur coking coal in Shanxi was 1,500 yuan/ton (unchanged week - on - week and down 300 yuan/ton year - on - year), and the ex - factory price of quasi - first - grade metallurgical coke in Lvliang was 1,230 yuan/ton (up 50 yuan/ton week - on - week and down 520 yuan/ton year - on - year) [99][104]. 5. Spread Analysis - The rebar basis is shrinking, and the spread between the rebar 10 - 1 contracts is narrowing. The iron ore 9 - 1 spread is narrowing, and the spread between hot - rolled coils and rebar first widened and then narrowed [106][112].

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - **Macro**: China's export growth in July 2025 continued to exceed expectations, and attention should be paid to policy changes; the implementation of US tariff policies and the impact on the economy remain to be seen; with the personnel changes in the Federal Reserve, market expectations for an interest rate cut within the year are rising [4]. - **Supply - Demand**: In the East China region, there are both device overhauls and restarts, but without substantial positive support for non - aluminum demand, affected by the price decline in the main regions, the liquid caustic soda price is expected to be weakly stable this week. In Shandong Province, the liquid caustic soda market remains weak, the shipment of high - concentration caustic soda slows down, and the price will show a weakly stable trend [4]. - **Overall Logic**: Caustic soda has strong cost support at the bottom. From the supply - demand perspective, the inventory pressure is obvious, and the near - month contracts will face certain warrant pressure. It is recommended to pay attention to the 9 - 11 reverse spread [4]. - **Strategy Suggestion**: For the caustic soda 2509 contract, the upper reference pressure level is 2650 yuan/ton, and the lower support level is 2350 yuan/ton [4]. 3. Summary by Directory 01 Market Review - **Spot Market**: Shandong's liquid caustic soda market is running weakly. The price of 32% liquid caustic soda in Shandong decreased by 20 yuan/ton to 800 yuan/ton, a decline of 2.44%; the price of 50% liquid caustic soda decreased by 40 yuan/ton to 1280 yuan/ton, a decline of 3.03%. The price of 98% flake caustic soda in the northwest region decreased by 100 yuan/ton to 3150 yuan/ton, a decline of 3.08%. The price of liquid chlorine in Shandong increased by 150 yuan/ton to - 100 yuan/ton, an increase of 60%. The prices of sea salt in Shandong and alumina in Shandong remained unchanged [9][18]. - **Futures Market**: The report presents the price trends of caustic soda, soda ash, alumina, and PVC futures contracts, but no specific data analysis is provided [15]. 02 Market Analysis - **Supply Side**: In the week of 20250801 - 0807, the average capacity utilization rate of China's caustic soda sample enterprises with a capacity of 200,000 tons and above was 85.1%, a month - on - month increase of 1.2%. It is expected that the caustic soda capacity utilization rate will be around 83.1%, and the weekly output will be around 804,500 tons. There are still planned maintenance devices in the northwest and north China regions, and the load is expected to decline [22]. - **Downstream - Alumina**: The supply of alumina changed little in the week. The supply - demand mismatch in different regions still exists. As of August 7, China's alumina production capacity was 114.8 million tons, and the operating capacity was 94.4 million tons [25]. - **Inventory**: As of 20250807, the factory inventory of fixed liquid caustic soda sample enterprises with a capacity of 200,000 tons and above was 461,700 wet tons, a month - on - month increase of 8.84% and a year - on - year increase of 17.08%. The storage capacity ratio of the national liquid caustic soda sample enterprises was 26.56%, a month - on - month increase of 2.87% [31]. - **Liquid Chlorine**: As of August 7, 2025, the average weekly price of liquid chlorine in Shandong increased by 35.9%. As of August 8, 2025, China's PVC capacity utilization rate was 79.46%, a month - on - month increase of 2.62%. It is expected to reach 80.13% this week [34]. - **Chlor - Alkali Cost and Profit**: In the week of 20250801 - 20250807, the average weekly profit of Shandong chlor - alkali enterprises was 278 yuan/ton, a month - on - month increase of 19.31%. The theoretical production cost of caustic soda decreased slightly, the caustic soda price declined, and the average weekly price of liquid chlorine increased, resulting in an overall increase in chlor - alkali profits [35].

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The A-share market's upward trend is stable driven by liquidity, and with the continuous implementation of policy combinations, the supply-demand pattern will optimize, potentially leading to stable improvement in the earnings and ROE of the entire A-share market. The market style is shifting from traditional cyclical sectors to technology sectors, and high-quality technology assets may have significant excess returns in the third quarter [7]. - The prices of various commodities in the market show different trends. Some are expected to be volatile, some are expected to decline, and some are expected to rebound [4][11][12][13][14][15][16]. - The bullish trend of the stock index continues, but there may be short - term adjustments. It is advisable to focus on the low - buying opportunities of IF, IM, and IC [19][20][21]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 1. Chemical Industry - **Price Changes**: On August 11, 2025, in the chemical industry, the prices of natural rubber, 20 - number rubber, plastic, etc. rose, while the prices of coke, styrene, and soda ash fell [4]. 2. Macro News - **Corporate Performance**: Industrial Fulin's semi - annual report in 2025 shows that its revenue and net profit attributable to the parent company have increased significantly year - on - year, with the second - quarter single - season revenue exceeding 200 billion yuan for the first time [7]. - **Stock Market Performance**: Last week, the three major A - share indexes all rose on a weekly basis. The Shanghai Composite Index hit a new high this year, and the Shenzhen Component Index and the ChiNext Index also had certain increases [7]. - **Regional Economy**: The GDP growth rates of Wenzhou, Dalian, and Xuzhou in the first half of the year exceeded 6%, and there is a possibility of entering the "trillion - yuan club" by the end of the year [8]. - **US Policies and Market**: The US government will stop providing tax credits for electric vehicles from September 30, 2025. The sales of electric vehicles in July reached a record high, but it is expected that the sales will "plummet" in the fourth quarter [8]. - **Commodity Prices**: The gold futures price on the New York Mercantile Exchange hit a new high last Friday. The "interest - rate cut trading" and "Trump 2.0" will continue to catalyze in 2025, and central bank reserves will support the gold price [9]. 3. Morning Meeting Views on Major Varieties 3.1 Agricultural Products - **Peanuts**: The peanut market is in a pattern of weak supply and demand, with prices fluctuating narrowly. In the short term, it is expected to be strongly volatile but still in a downward trend [11]. - **Oils and Fats**: The total trading volume of oils and fats decreased by 57% compared to the previous trading day. The market lacks driving forces and is expected to be weakly volatile [11]. - **Sugar**: The domestic sugar market has a different rhythm from the overseas market. If the raw sugar can stop falling and rebound, the 01 contract price may rise to repair the discount [11]. - **Pigs**: The spot price of pigs decreased last week. The supply is sufficient but the demand is weak. The futures market shows a pattern of near - term weakness and long - term strength, with a clear reverse spread trend [11]. - **Eggs**: The spot price of eggs has fallen and stabilized. The futures market has a large premium over the spot, and it is recommended to short on rebounds [12]. - **Cotton**: The cotton market is weakly volatile. The new cotton harvest is expected to be good, and the demand is under pressure. In the short term, there may be a small technical rebound [12]. 3.2 Energy and Chemicals - **Urea**: The domestic urea market price is weakly operating. Supply pressure is expected to increase, and the price may continue to be weakly volatile with support at the bottom [12]. - **Caustic Soda**: The caustic soda contract is under pressure for adjustment, and it is recommended to pay attention to the reverse spread [12][13][14]. - **Coking Coal**: The supply of coking coal is disturbed, and the downstream acceptance of high prices is decreasing. It is expected to be in a high - level volatile state [13]. 3.3 Industrial Metals - **Copper and Aluminum**: The copper price is adjusting due to policy uncertainties, and the aluminum price is expected to continue high - level adjustment due to factors such as increased supply and weak demand [13][14]. - **Alumina**: The alumina market is in an oversupply pattern. The futures price is under pressure, and the spot price is relatively stable, expected to be range - bound [14]. - **Steel Products**: The steel market is in the off - season with slight inventory accumulation. The steel price is expected to be volatile with limited downward space and potential upward driving forces [13][14][16]. - **Ferroalloys**: The ferroalloy market is in a wide - range volatile pattern. Supply is increasing, demand is weak, and it is recommended to take a range - bound trading approach in the short term [16]. - **Lithium Carbonate**: The price of lithium carbonate is expected to fluctuate more due to the uncertainty of the production status of a lithium mine. If the mine shuts down, the price center may rise [16]. 3.4 Options and Finance - **Options**: Index options show different performance in terms of volume, open interest, and implied volatility. Trend investors can focus on arbitrage opportunities between varieties, and volatility investors can buy straddles to bet on increased volatility [18]. - **Stock Index**: The bullish trend of the stock index continues. The Shanghai Composite Index may consolidate around 3600 points. It is recommended to focus on low - buying opportunities of IF, IM, and IC [19][20][21].

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Ratings There is no information about the report industry investment ratings in the provided content. 2. Core Viewpoints - The market showed strong performance from August 4th - 8th, with the Shanghai Composite Index hitting a new high for the year. Despite potential short - term adjustments, confidence in hitting new highs within the year should be maintained [3]. - Different varieties have different price trends and investment suggestions. For example, aluminum prices may maintain high - level consolidation, while lithium carbonate prices may be volatile due to the uncertainty of mine production [3]. 3. Summary by Variety Options - The Shanghai Composite Index reached a new high this week, with daily trading volume above 1.5 trillion. Different index options have different performance in terms of K - line indicators, basis, trading volume, open interest, and implied volatility. Trend investors can focus on relevant varieties, and volatility investors can buy wide - straddles to bet on volatility [2]. Stock Index - From August 4th - 8th, the market was strong, with the Shanghai Composite Index rising 2.11% on the weekly K - line. Looking ahead to August 11th - 15th, economic data releases and mid - year report disclosures may affect market sentiment. Investment should focus on IF and IM, and look for low - buying opportunities in IC [3]. Aluminum - Macroeconomic factors such as domestic export growth, US tariff policies, and Fed personnel changes are at play. Fundamentally, supply increases and the off - season of consumption lead to a strong expectation of inventory accumulation. Aluminum prices may maintain high - level consolidation in the range of 20,000 - 21,000 yuan/ton [3]. Lithium Carbonate - Spot prices are 68,000 - 70,000 yuan/ton, and futures prices have fallen. Due to the uncertainty of the production status of the Jianxiawo lithium mine, price fluctuations are expected to intensify. If the mine shuts down, the price center may rise significantly. Investment strategy is to buy on dips [3]. Coking Coal and Coke - This week, coal production and inventory decreased. Supply disruptions are still expected, but downstream acceptance of high prices has declined. Coke has started the sixth round of price increases, and prices are expected to remain relatively strong and fluctuate at high levels [4]. Urea - The current daily production is high, and supply pressure is expected to increase in August. Demand from agricultural top - dressing has ended, and compound fertilizer production has inventory pressure. Futures prices may continue to fluctuate weakly, with support around 1,700 yuan/ton [4]. Rebar and Hot - Rolled Coil - The production of the five major steel products increased while demand decreased, and inventory growth slightly expanded. Steel prices are expected to have limited downward space and still have upward drivers [4]. Eggs - Last week, egg spot prices fell and then stabilized. This week, the strategy is to short on rebounds [5]. Pigs - Last week, pig spot prices fell. Supply is sufficient but demand is weak, and prices are expected to continue to decline in the short term. Futures show a pattern of near - term weakness and long - term strength, with a range - bound trend [5]. Sugar - Domestic and international sugar prices have declined. With the expected shutdown of some northern sugar refineries and potential shortages in Brazilian shipments and domestic arrivals, the 01 contract may repair some of the discount [5]. Cotton - Cotton prices have declined. In the short term, there may be a small technical rebound, with support at 13,350 yuan/ton. The market has a strong expectation of a bumper cotton harvest in 2025, and demand is under pressure [5][6].

晨会纪要 2025 第（144）期 发布日期：2025-08-08 | 中原期货研究咨询部 | 0371-58620081 | | --- | --- | | 0371-58620083 | | | 公司官方微信 | | 0371-58620081 0371-58620083 中原期货研究咨询部 公司官方微信 1 中原期货研究咨询部 | 化工 | 主力合约 | 2025/8/8 | 2025/8/7 | 涨跌 | 涨跌幅/% | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | | 8:00 | 15:00 | | | | | 焦煤 | 1,222.50 | 1,229.50 | -7.0 | -0.569 | | | 焦炭 | 1,642.50 | 1,667.50 | -25.0 | -1.499 | | | 天然橡胶 | 15,525.00 | 15,525.00 | 0 | 0 | | | 20号胶 | 12,360.00 | 12,350.00 | 10.0 | 0.081 | | | 塑料 | 7,309.00 | 7,297.00 | 12.0 | 0.164 ...

| 公司官方微信 | | --- | | 中原期货研究咨询部 0371-58620081 0371-58620083 | 1 中原期货研究咨询部 晨会纪要 2025 第（143）期 发布日期：2025-08-07 公司官方微信 中原期货研究咨询部 | 化工 | 主力合约 | 2025/8/7 | 2025/8/6 | 涨跌 | 涨跌幅/% | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | | 8:00 | 15:00 | | | | | 焦煤 | 1,223.50 | 1,221.00 | 2.50 | 0.205 | | | 焦炭 | 1,647.50 | 1,644.50 | 3.0 | 0.182 | | | 天然橡胶 | 15,430.00 | 15.495.00 | -65.0 | -0.419 | | | 20号胶 | 12,280.00 | 12,320.00 | -40.0 | -0.325 | | | 塑料 | 7,305.00 | 7,321.00 | -16.0 | -0.219 | | | 聚丙烯PP | 7,072.00 | 7,078.00 | ...