1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Views of the Report - The market is influenced by various factors such as international trade policies, monetary policies, and supply - demand relationships in different industries. The A - share market is in a phase of high - level adjustment, but the medium - term trend remains unchanged. The price trends of different commodities show differences based on their own supply - demand fundamentals [5][6][19][20] - For different commodity futures, specific trading strategies are proposed according to their price trends and fundamental analysis, including short - term selling on rallies, long - term buying on dips, and range - bound trading [9][10][11][13][15] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Chemical Industry - On October 20, 2025, most chemical futures prices rose compared to the previous day. For example, the price of coking coal increased by 49.0 to 1,228.00 with a 4.156% increase; the price of coke increased by 53.50 to 1,729.50 with a 3.192% increase. However, the price of LPG decreased by 101.0 to 4,119.00 with a - 2.393% decrease [3] - For specific products: - Urea: The supply is expected to increase after the maintenance reduction, the demand is weak, the inventory is high, and the price continues to consolidate at a low level. Attention should be paid to the participation in the Indian tender and the off - season storage procurement [10] - Caustic soda: The spot price in Shandong is relatively firm, but the new capacity release and the expected reduction in the alumina industry put pressure on the 2601 contract [10] - Coking coal and coke: The supply of coking coal is stable in the short term, the demand is improving, the second - round price increase of coke has been launched, and the price is expected to fluctuate in a range [10][13] - Logs: The price breaks through the key pressure level, and a bullish strategy can be adopted, but attention should be paid to the inventory pressure [13] - Pulp: The supply - demand is weak, the inventory is at a high level, and it is recommended to wait and see. Pay attention to the support at 5080 - 5100 [13] - Offset printing paper: The supply pressure is increasing, the inventory is rising, and attention should be paid to the support at 4150 [13] - Copper and aluminum: Supported by macro and supply - demand factors, the prices remain high, but macro risks should be watched out for [13][15] - Alumina: The supply is in excess, the 2601 contract is weak, and attention should be paid to the interference of factors such as bauxite [15] - Rebar and hot - rolled coil: The inventory is decreasing, the demand is improving, the steel price has support at a low level, and it is expected to fluctuate in a range [15] - Ferroalloys: The production and consumption of silicon - iron and silicon - manganese change, and the short - term is expected to continue to fluctuate widely [15] - Lithium carbonate: The price breaks through the upper limit of the shock range, and attention should be paid to the pressure at 78000. Be vigilant against the impact of new capacity [15][17] 3.2 Agricultural Products - On October 20, 2025, most agricultural product futures prices showed different degrees of change. For example, the price of No. 2 yellow soybeans increased by 41.0 to 3,608.00 with a 1.149% increase; the price of yellow corn decreased by 3.0 to 2,114.00 with a - 0.142% decrease [3] - For specific products: - Peanuts: The futures price is in a weak shock, the supply is affected by the weather, the demand is weak, and it is recommended to short on rallies. Pay attention to the support at 7900 - 7920 [9] - Sugar: The futures price is slightly rising, the production in Brazil is increasing, the new - season production in the Northern Hemisphere is expected to increase, the domestic inventory is low, and it is recommended to go long lightly near the support at 5400 [9] - Corn: The futures price is falling, the new - grain supply pressure is large, the demand is restricted, and it is recommended to short on rallies. Pay attention to the support at 2100 - 2110 [9] - Live pigs: The national average price is low and fluctuating, the north is rising and the south is falling, and the futures price is expected to weakly rebound [9] - Eggs: The spot price is falling, the supply is sufficient, the demand is average, the futures price is expected to continue to decline, and a calendar spread short strategy is recommended [10] - Cotton: The supply pressure is prominent, the demand is weak, the price is expected to bottom - out and fluctuate, and attention should be paid to the breakthrough at 13300 - 13400 [10] 3.3 Macro News - Trump continues to release easing signals, and the US government is quietly relaxing tariff policies. The Supreme Court will hold a hearing on "reciprocal tariffs" in early November [5] - The only silver futures fund in the market, SDIC UBS Silver Futures, upgrades its purchase limit. Silver prices have reached a record high this year, but there is a risk of correction [5] - At the IMF and World Bank Group annual meeting, there are concerns about the economic outlook, and many business people hope to use Hong Kong as a springboard to explore the mainland and Asian markets [6] - China's central bank's two monetary policy tools for the capital market have effectively boosted market confidence and enhanced market stability in the past year [6] - The price of silver has risen significantly this year, and there is a shortage of silver in some areas [6] - Banks are in the critical stage of the "year - end battle", and some small and medium - sized banks have advanced the "good start" campaign for next year [7] - At the 2025 North Bund International Shipping Forum, innovative achievements in high - end shipping services were released, including the first transformation - finance ship financing lease business [7] 3.4 Stock Index Options and Financial Market - On October 17, the three major A - share indexes declined, the trading volume was less than 2 trillion, and most sectors fell. The futures and options of different stock indexes showed different performance characteristics. Trend investors can pay attention to the strength - weakness arbitrage opportunities, and volatility investors can consider buying straddles or wide - straddles to bet on volatility after the volatility decline [19] - The A - share market is in a high - level adjustment, but the medium - term trend remains unchanged. The price increase logic may be a mid - term investment main line. The market style is currently value - dominant, and the growth style is in a benign adjustment period. It is recommended to buy on dips when the index futures adjust and stabilize [19][20][21]

Report Information - Report Title: Morning Meeting Minutes, Issue (186) in 2025 - Release Date: October 15, 2025 - Research Department: Zhongyuan Futures Research and Consulting Department 1. Industry Investment Rating - Not mentioned in the report 2. Core Viewpoints - The global economic situation is complex, with multiple factors influencing various markets. The Chinese economy shows signs of recovery, but concerns remain due to external trade frictions and internal structural adjustments. Different commodity markets have distinct supply - demand dynamics and price trends, and the stock market is expected to be in a state of high - level volatility in the fourth quarter [5][6][7][16] 3. Summary by Category 3.1 Macro News - Chinese Premier Li Qiang emphasized the need to implement counter - cyclical adjustments, expand domestic demand, and create a first - class industrial ecosystem. China also took counter - measures against South Korea's Hanwha Ocean's US subsidiaries in response to US trade investigations [5] - The Fed Chair Powell hinted at a possible end to balance - sheet reduction and a potential 25 - basis - point rate cut this month. The Chinese central bank aims to maintain the RMB exchange rate at a reasonable and balanced level [6] - US grain shipments to China have significantly declined, with potential losses for US soybean exports. Chinese authorities launched investigations on the shipping and shipbuilding industries and emphasized measures to stabilize industrial growth [6][7] - National enterprise sales revenue has shown a steady upward trend, and tax revenue has been growing positively since February [7] 3.2 Commodity Price Changes - **Chemical Industry**: On October 15, most chemical futures contracts showed price declines. For example, coking coal dropped by 0.867%, coke by 1.360%, and PTA by 0.766%. Only 20 - numbered rubber, methanol, paper pulp, LPG, and РХ showed price increases [3] - **Agricultural Products**: Some agricultural products had price increases, such as yellow soybean No. 1 (0.784%), yellow soybean No. 2 (0.390%), and soybean meal (0.448%), while others like rapeseed oil (- 0.412%) and palm oil (- 0.107%) declined [3] 3.3 Morning Meeting Views on Major Varieties 3.3.1 Agricultural Products - **Peanuts**: On October 14, peanut futures showed a narrow - range oscillation. Supply has regional differences, and the current price is near the lower edge of the oscillation range. It is recommended to wait and see and focus on the new - grain listing rhythm [10] - **Sugar**: On October 14, sugar futures fell below the key support level. Brazilian sugar supply is increasing, and domestic northern sugar mills are starting production with low inventory. It is advisable to wait and watch, focusing on Brazilian crushing data and domestic production progress [10] - **Corn**: On October 14, corn futures showed a weakening trend. Supply pressure from new grain listing is dominant, and it is expected to continue its weak trend. Attention should be paid to the support range of 2050 - 2080 yuan [10] - **Pigs**: The pig market is under pressure due to concentrated post - festival supply and reduced consumption. It is in a state of deep loss and is expected to continue weakening [10] - **Eggs**: The spot price of eggs is slightly increasing in the short term. Futures can consider a small - volume long - position in the far - month contract and a calendar spread strategy [10][12] 3.3.2 Energy and Chemicals - **Urea**: The domestic urea price has a slight increase. Supply is affected by some enterprise maintenance, and demand from compound fertilizer enterprises is weak. It is expected to maintain a weak oscillation, and attention should be paid to the Indian tender on the 15th [11][12] - **Caustic Soda**: The price of caustic soda in Shandong is stable. Supply is supported by enterprise production reduction and maintenance, but demand lacks impetus. The 2601 contract is under pressure [12] - **Coking Coal and Coke**: Spot prices are stable, but steel mills' demand is weakening. They are expected to have a short - term weak oscillation [12] 3.3.3 Industrial Metals - **Copper and Aluminum**: After China's trade counter - measures, the US has shown a willingness to ease tensions, and market sentiment has improved. However, aluminum inventory has increased, and there is pressure on the premium. Short - term price corrections should be noted [12][13] - **Alumina**: Supply is high, and demand is weak. The 2601 contract is running weakly, and attention should be paid to factors such as bauxite [13] - **Steel Products**: Steel prices are weakening. Terminal demand is poor after the festival, and inventory is accumulating slightly. Steel prices are expected to continue to oscillate weakly [13] - **Ferroalloys**: The black - series is weak, and double - silicon is under pressure. Cost support has weakened, and the short - term trend is bearish [13] - **Lithium Carbonate**: On October 14, the futures price slightly increased. Supply has growth potential, and demand is mixed. Attention should be paid to the 74400 - yuan pressure level [13][14] 3.3.4 Options and Finance - **Stock Index Futures and Options**: On October 14, A - share indices declined. The stock market is affected by trade frictions and Fed policies. Trend investors can consider low - buying when the index stabilizes, and volatility investors can consider long - volatility strategies [14][16]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Views of the Report - For steel products (including rebar and hot-rolled coil), the market is expected to be weak and fluctuate at a low level. Although the high daily output of hot metal provides support for raw materials, the demand after the holiday is cautious, and the inventory accumulation during the National Day holiday and the pressure from mid - month delivery affect the market. The downward space for steel prices is relatively limited [3]. - For iron ore, the price is expected to fluctuate within a range. The supply has increased in stages, the daily output of hot metal remains high, and the inventory pressure is limited. The price is more easily affected by the macro and news [4]. - For coking coal and coke, they are expected to be weak and fluctuate. The high daily output of hot metal provides support, but short - term risks such as trade tariffs and terminal delivery inventory pressure need to be vigilant [5]. 3. Summary According to the Table of Contents 3.1 Market Review - After the holiday, the demand was average, and steel prices fluctuated at a low level. During the holiday, the spot market had prices but no transactions, and the demand was weak. The five major steel products showed traditional inventory accumulation, with the social inventory of hot - rolled coil slightly exceeding the historical average. After the holiday, although prices were under pressure, the high hot - metal output supported raw materials [9]. 3.2 Steel Supply and Demand Analysis - **Supply**: The weekly output of rebar decreased to 203.4 tons (down 1.75% month - on - month and 13.91% year - on - year), and the weekly output of hot - rolled coil slightly declined to 323.29 tons (down 0.43% month - on - month and up 4.90% year - on - year). Both blast furnace and electric furnace production of rebar decreased. The blast furnace operating rate remained stable, and the electric furnace operating rate slightly increased. The profits of rebar and hot - rolled coil both declined [16][18][23]. - **Demand**: Affected by the holiday, the apparent consumption of rebar and hot - rolled coil decreased significantly. The apparent consumption of rebar was 153.18 tons (down 36.46% month - on - month and 40.59% year - on - year), and that of hot - rolled coil was 295.01 tons (down 9.12% month - on - month and 6.63% year - on - year) [37]. - **Inventory**: The rebar inventory increased from a decreasing trend, with both factory and social inventories accumulating. The total rebar inventory was 659.64 tons (up 9.53% month - on - month and 49.63% year - on - year). The hot - rolled coil inventory increased significantly, mainly in social inventory, with a total inventory of 412.9 tons (up 8.49% month - on - month and 7.72% year - on - year) [41][46]. - **Downstream**: In the real estate market, the transactions of commercial housing and land decreased month - on - month. In the automotive market, in August 2025, the production and sales of automobiles increased both month - on - month and year - on - year [49][52]. 3.3 Iron Ore Supply and Demand Analysis - **Supply**: The shipments from 19 ports in Australia and Brazil decreased slightly to 26.665 million tons (down 2.23% month - on - month and up 7.02% year - on - year), and the arrival volume at 45 ports increased to 30.458 million tons (up 16.76% month - on - month and 3.29% year - on - year) [60]. - **Demand**: The daily output of hot metal was 2.4154 million tons (down 0.27 tons month - on - month and up 8.46 tons year - on - year), and the port clearance volume at 45 ports decreased slightly to 3.27 million tons (down 2.79% month - on - month and up 0.61% year - on - year) [65]. - **Inventory**: The inventory at 45 ports increased slightly to 140.245 million tons (up 0.17% month - on - month and down 8.32% year - on - year), and the imported iron ore inventory of 247 steel enterprises decreased to 90.4619 million tons (down 9.87% month - on - month and up 0.68% year - on - year) [71]. 3.4 Coking Coal and Coke Supply and Demand Analysis - **Supply**: The operating rate of coking coal mines decreased to 81.89% (down 5.33% month - on - month and 6.11% year - on - year), and the daily customs clearance volume of Mongolian coal decreased to 177,300 tons (down 3.38% month - on - month and up 62.10% year - on - year). The independent coking plant's ton - coke profit increased to 9 yuan/ton, and the capacity utilization rate remained stable [77][85]. - **Demand**: The daily output of hot metal remained at a high level, which provided support for coking coal and coke [5]. - **Inventory**: The coking coal inventory of independent coking plants decreased to 8.1913 million tons (down 7.80% month - on - month and up 11.80% year - on - year), and the port inventory remained unchanged. The coke inventory of independent coking plants increased to 425,400 tons (up 9.05% month - on - month and 13.56% year - on - year), and the port inventory increased slightly [91][97]. - **Spot Price**: The first - round price increase of coke was implemented during the holiday, and the game between steel and coke continued. The price of low - sulfur coking coal in Shanxi decreased, while the ex - factory price of quasi - first - class metallurgical coke in Handan increased [103]. 3.5 Spread Analysis - The basis of rebar slightly shrank, and the 1 - 5 spread fluctuated narrowly. The coil - to - rebar spread fluctuated narrowly, and the 1 - 5 spread of coking coal and coke slightly shrank [105][111].

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The A - share market's short - term trend is uncertain, with high - level volatility likely to increase this month. In the medium term, despite external trade frictions, the Chinese economy will continue to develop, and the bull market will resume after the market's risk appetite recovers. [17][18] - For different commodities, their trends are affected by various factors such as supply - demand relationships, policies, and international trade situations. Traders should adjust their strategies according to specific commodity characteristics and market conditions. [10][11][12][14][16] Summary by Relevant Catalogs 1. Macro News - The implementation of special port dues for US ships starts today. Ships meeting certain conditions related to the US need to pay the fee, with some exemptions. [6] - In September, China's goods trade imports and exports reached 4.04 trillion yuan, a year - on - year increase of 8%. Exports were 2.34 trillion yuan, up 8.4%, and imports were 1.7 trillion yuan, up 7.5%, with consecutive 4 - month year - on - year double - growth. The third - quarter trade also had a 6% year - on - year increase. However, China's rare - earth exports in September were 4000.3 tons, showing a third - consecutive - month decline. [6] - China's three major telecom operators have obtained approval for eSIM mobile phone service commercial trials, and Apple will launch the iPhone Air in China. [7] - The 2025 Nobel Economics Prize is awarded to Joel Mokyr, Philippe Aghion, and Peter Howitt. [7] - Regarding Pakistan - US rare - earth cooperation and the Dutch government's restrictions on Chinese chip manufacturers, the Chinese Foreign Ministry has responded, emphasizing market principles and the protection of legitimate rights. [7] - Since October 13, 24:00, domestic gasoline and diesel prices have been reduced by 75 yuan and 70 yuan per ton respectively, with a 0.06 - yuan per - liter reduction for 92 - octane, 95 - octane gasoline, and 0 - octane diesel. It is expected that the next round of refined - oil price adjustments may be downward. [8] 2. Morning Meeting Views on Major Varieties 2.1 Agricultural Products - Peanut futures on October 13 closed at 7902 yuan/ton, up 1.10%, breaking through the shock range. In the short term, it may continue to be strong, but there is pressure around 7950 yuan and support at 7800 yuan. [10] - Sugar futures on October 13 closed at 5470 yuan/ton, down 0.85%, weaker than expected. After breaking the 5500 - yuan support, there is limited downward space, and it is recommended to wait for stabilization before going long. [10] - Corn futures on October 13 closed at 2092 yuan/ton, down 1.83%, with supply pressure from new - season corn in the Northeast and cautious demand. It is recommended to go short, focusing on the 2080 - 2090 - yuan support. [10] - The pig market is under pressure due to post - holiday supply release and consumption decline, with prices continuing to fall and the market in a weak and bottom - exploring state. [10] - Egg prices are expected to be low - volatile, with some regions continuing to be weak. It is recommended to go long on the far - month contract and conduct inter - month reverse spreads. [12] - Cotton futures on October 10 closed at 13325 yuan/ton, up 0.26%, with supply pressure from new cotton and weak demand. It is expected to be bottom - oscillating, with pressure at 13400 yuan and support at 13200 yuan. [12] 2.2 Energy and Chemicals - The domestic urea market price is weak, with good low - price sales. The daily output is expected to decline briefly and then recover. Attention should be paid to downstream follow - up and Indian tenders. [12] - For caustic soda, the market supply is relatively abundant, and the 2601 contract is under pressure. Attention should be paid to the support at the 2400 - point level. [12] - For coking coal and coke, the port prices are stable, and the steel mills' procurement is cautious. The prices are expected to be weakly volatile in the short term. [12][14] 2.3 Industrial Metals - For copper and aluminum, due to the intensification of Sino - US trade frictions, prices have dropped significantly, and short - term adjustment risks should be noted. [14] - For alumina, the supply is in excess, and the 2601 contract is running weakly. Attention should be paid to factors such as bauxite. [14] - For rebar and hot - rolled coils, the spot market has weak transactions, and the prices are under pressure in mid - month. The short - term downward space is limited, and they are expected to be weakly volatile. [14] - For ferroalloys, the fundamentals are weak, and attention should be paid to the impact of macro and Sino - US tariff frictions on the financial market. [16] - For lithium carbonate, the price is under pressure due to increased supply and weak demand. Attention should be paid to the support at 71800 yuan. [16] 2.4 Options and Finance - On October 13, the three major A - share indexes corrected, with more falling stocks. The trading volume was 2.37 trillion. For stock - index futures and options, the basis and implied volatility changed. Trend investors can consider buying bullish call spreads, and volatility investors can consider buying straddles or wide - straddles. [16] - The A - share market is in high - level shock, and it is recommended to buy on dips and reduce positions when the market sentiment is high. [17][18]

中原期货研究咨询部 晨会纪要 2025 第（184）期 发布日期：2025-10-13 | 中原期货研究咨询部 | 0371-58620081 | | --- | --- | | 0371-58620083 | | | 公司官方微信 | | 1 公司官方微信 中原期货研究咨询部 | 化工 | 主力合约 | 2025/10/13 | 2025/10/12 | 涨跌 | 涨跌幅/% | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | | 8:00 | 15:00 | | | | | 焦煤 | 1,143.50 | 1,161.00 | -17.50 | -1.507 | | | 焦炭 | 1,646.50 | 1,666.50 | -20.0 | -1.20 | | | 天然橡胶 | 15,045.00 | 15,315.00 | -270.0 | -1.763 | | | 20号胶 | 12,045.00 | 12,350.00 | -305.0 | -2.470 | | | 塑料 | 7,004.00 | 7,037.00 | -33.0 | -0.469 | | | 聚丙 ...

Report Summary 1. Industry Investment Rating No information provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints - China's extraterritorial jurisdiction takes a solid step forward with multiple export control measures announced by the Ministry of Commerce [6]. - The technical requirements for new - energy vehicle purchase tax exemptions from 2026 - 2027 are adjusted by three departments including the Ministry of Industry and Information Technology [6]. - The consumer market during the National Day and Mid - Autumn Festival holidays this year shows good growth momentum, with increased domestic travel spending and consumption revenue [6]. - The National Development and Reform Commission and the State Administration for Market Regulation issue a notice to govern price disorderly competition [7]. - China and India will resume direct flights by the end of October [7]. - On the first trading day after the holiday, the A - share market runs at a high level, with the Shanghai Composite Index hitting a new high in more than a decade [7]. - A cease - fire agreement in Gaza is announced by a Hamas official [8]. - A bill to end the US government shutdown proposed by the US Republicans fails to pass in the Senate [8]. 3. Summary by Categories 3.1 Chemical and Agricultural Product Price Changes - **Chemicals**: On October 10, 2025, among various chemical products, glass, coke, and others rose, while crude oil, plastic, etc. fell. For example, glass rose by 0.985% to 1,230.00 yuan, and crude oil fell by 1.444% to 464.20 yuan [4]. - **Agricultural Products**: On October 10, 2025, among agricultural products, yellow soybean 2, palm oil, etc. rose, while yellow soybean 1, rapeseed meal, etc. fell. For example, yellow soybean 2 rose by 0.138% to 3,637.00 yuan, and rapeseed meal fell by 0.698% to 2,418.00 yuan [4]. 3.2 Main Varieties Morning Meeting Views - **Agricultural Products** - **Peanuts**: On October 9, peanut futures closed down 0.85%, showing a downward - breaking trend. With increased supply and weak demand, prices are expected to decline, and it is recommended to wait and see, focusing on the 7600 - 7650 support range [11]. - **Sugar**: On October 9, sugar futures rose 0.69%. Supported by domestic low inventory and high sales - to - production ratio, prices may continue to rebound in the short term. It is recommended to go long at low prices near the 5500 - yuan support level [11]. - **Corn**: On October 9, corn futures fell 0.42%. With new grain supply pressure and weak demand, the price is expected to be weak and volatile. Short - term waiting and seeing is recommended, focusing on the 2120 - yuan support [11]. - **Pigs**: The pig market is under pressure due to concentrated supply release and weakening consumption after the holiday, and the price is expected to be weak and volatile [11]. - **Eggs**: After the double festivals, egg prices fall due to slow sales, high inventory, and weak consumption. Futures are recommended to be short - sold, and month - spread reverse arbitrage is the main strategy [11][13]. - **Energy and Chemicals** - **Urea**: The domestic urea market price is weak. With high supply, weak demand, and increased inventory, the futures price may continue to be under pressure. Attention should be paid to Indian tender dynamics, macro - impacts, and export changes [13]. - **Caustic Soda**: On October 9, the price of 32% caustic soda in Shandong is stable, but inventory increases. The 2601 contract is under pressure, and attention should be paid to the 2400 - point support [13]. - **Coking Coal and Coke**: After the holiday, the coking coal market has low inquiry sentiment, and domestic mine supply recovers. With stable coke prices and high hot - metal production, they are expected to fluctuate within a range (coking coal: 1050 - 1300, coke: 1550 - 1800) [13]. - **Industrial Metals** - **Copper and Aluminum**: On October 9, copper prices rise to a new high this year, and attention should be paid to the pressure at last year's high. Aluminum prices follow the non - ferrous sector, but the increase in inventory after the holiday may put pressure on the premium [13][14]. - **Alumina**: The supply of alumina is high, and demand is weak, with a surplus in the fundamentals. The 2601 contract is weak, and attention should be paid to factors such as bauxite [14]. - **Rebar and Hot - Rolled Coil**: Night - session prices of rebar and hot - rolled coil rise. After the holiday, inventory accumulates, and demand is weak. The price is expected to fluctuate within a range (rebar: 3050 - 3200, hot - rolled coil: 3250 - 3400) [14]. - **Ferroalloys**: After the holiday, the black - series rebounds, but ferroalloys are weak. They are expected to fluctuate widely in the short term, and high - selling and low - buying operations are recommended [14]. - **Lithium Carbonate**: On October 9, the lithium carbonate futures price rises slightly. With supply and demand factors, attention should be paid to the 75240 - yuan pressure level. If it breaks through, a small - position long position can be tried [14][16]. - **Options and Finance** - **Options**: On October 9, the A - share market has a good start in October. The trading volume and open - interest PCR of 300ETF options and 50ETF options change, and the implied volatility decreases. Trend investors can focus on inter - variety arbitrage opportunities, and volatility investors can sell wide - straddles to short volatility [15][16]. - **Stock Index**: After the holiday, the A - share market has a good start, and the Shanghai Composite Index breaks through the long - term pressure line. In the fourth quarter, policies are expected to be introduced, and the short - term long - trend key is that the futures price does not fall below the 5 - day moving average [18][19].

中原期货研究咨询部 晨会纪要 2025 第（182）期 发布日期：2025-10-09 | 中原期货研究咨询部 0371-58620081 | | --- | | 0371-58620083 | | 公司官方微信 | 1 公司官方微信 中原期货研究咨询部 | 化工 | 主力合约 | 2025/10/9 | 2025/10/8 | 涨跌 | 涨跌幅/% | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | | 8:00 | 15:00 | | | | | 焦煤 | 1,126.00 | 1,126.00 | 0 | 0 | | | 焦炭 | 1,623.00 | 1.623.00 | 0 | 0 | | | 天然橡胶 | 15,030.00 | 15,030.00 | 0 | 0 | | | 20号胶 | 12,100.00 | 12,100.00 | 0 | 0 | | | 塑料 | 7,153.00 | 7,153.00 | 0 | 0 | | | 聚丙烯PP | 6,852.00 | 6,852.00 | 0 | 0 | | | (PTA) | 4,594.00 | 4, ...

【中原化工】 秋季肥支撑有限，关注印标动态 ——尿素周报2025.09.29 中原期货研究咨询部 作者：申文 执业证书编号：F03117458 投资咨询编号：Z0022654 shenwen_qh@ccnew.com 0371-58620081 01 周度观点汇总 3 1.1 尿素周度观点——秋季肥支撑有限，关注印标动态 品种 主要逻辑 策略建议 风险提示 尿素 1. 供应：日产显著回升； 2. 需求：秋季肥支撑有限，关注印标动态； 3. 库存：上游尿素企业延续累库状态； 4. 成本与利润：煤炭价格维持偏强运行，尿素利润环比下降； 5. 基差与价差：1-5价差小幅收窄，01基差变化有限。 6. 整体逻辑： 本周国内尿素现货市场价格弱势运行，九月下旬多家尿素企业检修装置存复产预期，尿素 日产预计将在九月下旬回升至高位水平。需求端，随着秋季肥生产进入尾声，复合肥企业开工 环比逐步下降，成品库存小幅去化，但同比仍处于偏高水平，下游需求支撑整体表现偏弱。短 期来看，供应压力回升及需求弱势影响下，尿素库存呈现持续累积状态，而印标及出口预期扰 动仍存，期价或延续震荡偏弱运行，后续需重点关注印标动态、宏观影响及出口变化情况 ...

Report Summary 1. Investment Rating No investment rating for the industry is provided in the report. 2. Core View The current sugar market is in a weak and volatile stage. The core contradiction lies in the peak supply from Brazil and the expected increase in production during the new domestic sugar - making season, which suppresses prices. The seasonal weakening of demand further intensifies the downward pressure. In the short term, cost support and supply suppression coexist. It is expected that the sugar futures price will maintain a weak oscillation in the range of 5450 - 5550 yuan in the next 1 - 2 weeks [3]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Weekly Review - **Price Changes**: The 11 - day sugar continuous contract closed at 15.87, up 2.65% from last week; the main contract of Zhengzhou sugar closed at 5478, up 0.31%. Spot prices in various regions declined, with the Nanning price down 1.03%, the Liuzhou price down 1.20%, etc. [5] - **Basis and Warehouse Receipts**: The basis between Liuzhou sugar and the main contract narrowed by 23.58% to 282 yuan/ton. The number of warehouse receipts decreased by 8.68% to 9464, indicating a reduction in physical delivery pressure. [5] - **CFTC Non - commercial Positions**: The number of long positions increased by 6.06%, the number of short positions decreased by 1.26%, and the net long positions increased by 18.13%. [5] - **Market Sentiment**: The proportions of bullish, bearish, and neutral views on Zhengzhou sugar remained unchanged at 20%, 45%, and 35% respectively. [5] 3.2 Fundamental Analysis - **Import Cost and Profit**: For both Brazilian and Thai sugar, the in - quota processing cost increased slightly, while the out - quota profit space narrowed significantly. For example, the out - quota profit of Thai sugar decreased by 17.35% to 381 yuan/ton. [30] 3.3 International Market Fundamentals - The report lists aspects such as Brazil's available sugar volume, cane crushing volume, sugar production, ethanol production, sugar import and export, and international raw sugar premium and shipping costs, but specific data details are not fully presented in the provided content. Relevant topics include sections from 3.1 to 3.6 [31].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided in the report. 2. Core Views of the Report 2.1纯碱 - In the short - term, pre - holiday restocking by mid - and downstream enterprises led to a temporary reduction in soda ash plant inventories, but high inventory and high supply still strongly suppress prices. The SA2601 contract is expected to operate in the range of 1250 - 1350 yuan/ton. In the long - term, under the pattern of new capacity launch, the supply - demand of soda ash remains loose, and opportunities to short on rebounds after the weakening of macro - disturbances can be considered [5]. 2.2 Glass - In the short - term, macro - sentiment and the expectation of supply reduction still have a strong impact. The glass 2601 contract is expected to operate in the range of 1170 - 1320 yuan/ton. Attention should be paid to the changes in Shahe coal - fired production lines and macro - impacts [6]. 3. Summary According to the Directory 3.1 Weekly View Summary 3.1.1 Soda Ash - **Supply**: The device operating rate was 89.12% (up 3.59% week - on - week), with the ammonia - soda method at 89.87% (up 1% week - on - week) and the combined - soda method at 82.15% (up 6.62% week - on - week). The weekly output was 77.69 tons (up 3.12 tons week - on - week), including light soda ash output of 34.68 tons (up 1.88 tons) and heavy soda ash output of 43.01 tons (up 1.24 tons) [5]. - **Demand**: The apparent demand for soda ash was 88.10 tons (up 9.34 tons), with light soda ash at 36.72 tons (up 2.57 tons) and heavy soda ash at 51.38 tons (up 6.77 tons) [5]. - **Inventory**: Soda ash enterprise inventory was 165.15 tons (down 4.42 tons), light soda ash inventory was 72.91 tons (up 0.33 tons), and heavy soda ash inventory was 92.24 tons (down 4.75 tons) [5]. 3.1.2 Glass - **Supply**: The daily melting volume of float glass was 16.07 tons, up 0.31% compared to the 18th. There were 296 glass production lines in China, with 225 in production and 71 cold - repaired and shut down. The daily melting volume of photovoltaic glass was 8.87 tons, unchanged week - on - week and down 9.29% year - on - year [6]. - **Inventory**: The total inventory of national float glass sample enterprises was 59.355 million weight cases, down 1.553 million weight cases week - on - week (down 2.55% week - on - week and 18.56% year - on - year). The inventory days were 25.4 days, 0.6 days less than the previous period [6]. - **Demand**: As of September 15, 2025, the average order days of national deep - processing sample enterprises was 10.5 days, up 1.0% week - on - week and 2.9% year - on - year [6]. 3.2 Variety Details Decomposition 3.2.1 Market Review - Spot Price - Soda ash spot prices remained stable. As of September 25, 2025, the market price of heavy soda ash in Central China was 1250 yuan/ton, and that of light soda ash was 1150 yuan/ton, with a price difference of 100 yuan/ton. In North China, the market price of heavy soda ash was 1300 yuan/ton, and that of light soda ash was 1200 yuan/ton, also with a price difference of 100 yuan/ton [11]. - The price of the soda ash main contract fluctuated. As of September 25, 2025, the basis of soda ash in the Shahe area was - 90 yuan/ton (unchanged from last week). The glass futures price rebounded significantly, and the glass basis in the Shahe area was - 182 yuan/ton (down 30 yuan/ton from last week) [14]. 3.2.2 Market Review - Spread - As of September 25, 2025, the 1 - 5 spread of soda ash was - 89 yuan/ton (up 5 yuan/ton week - on - week); the 1 - 5 spread of glass was - 113 yuan/ton (up 7 yuan/ton week - on - week); the glass - soda ash arbitrage spread was 45 yuan/ton (down 53 yuan/ton week - on - week) [20]. 3.2.3 Fundamental - Supply - Soda ash weekly output was 77.69 tons (up 3.12 tons week - on - week), light soda ash output was 34.68 tons (up 1.88 tons), and heavy soda ash output was 43.01 tons (up 1.24 tons). Recently, there were limited changes in soda ash enterprise devices, and soda ash supply was expected to remain at a high level [26]. - There were 296 domestic glass production lines, with 225 in production and 71 cold - repaired and shut down. The national float glass daily output was 16.07 tons, up 0.31% compared to the 18th. This week, the national float glass output was 112.42 tons, up 0.27% week - on - week and down 2.56% year - on - year. The daily melting in - production capacity of photovoltaic glass was 88,780 tons/day, unchanged week - on - week and down 9.29% year - on - year [46]. 3.2.4 Fundamental - Inventory - As of September 25, 2025, soda ash enterprise inventory was 165.15 tons (down 4.42 tons), light soda ash inventory was 72.91 tons (up 0.33 tons), and heavy soda ash inventory was 92.24 tons (down 4.75 tons) [39]. - The total inventory of national float glass sample enterprises was 59.355 million weight cases, down 1.553 million weight cases week - on - week (down 2.55% week - on - week and 18.56% year - on - year). The inventory days were 25.4 days, 0.6 days less than the previous period [50]. 3.2.5 Fundamental - Profit - As of September 25, 2025, the theoretical profit of ammonia - soda method soda ash in China was - 37.20 yuan/ton, down 0.45 yuan/ton week - on - week; the theoretical profit (double - ton) of combined - soda method soda ash in China was - 77.50 yuan/ton, down 7 yuan/ton week - on - week [52].