作 者：杨江涛 执业证书编号：F03117249 交易咨询编号：Z0022644 联 系 方 式：0371-58620082 白糖市场震荡寻底，供应压力与成本支撑博 弈加剧 --白糖周报2026年01月19日-01月23日 本周观点 | 品种 | 逻辑驱动 | 策略及风险提示 | | --- | --- | --- | | | 【现货市场】：现货价格弱势下行，柳州现货价周环比下跌0.94%至5290元/吨。 | | | | 市场情绪偏空，看跌比例高达60%。基差走强至110元/吨，环比大增34.15%，反映 | | | | 期货跌幅大于现货。 | 预计未来1-2周， | | | | 白糖主力合约将 | | | 【期货市场】：主力合约周度收于5180元/吨，周环比下跌1.48%。价格区间震荡， | | | | 持仓量周内增加9.36%至466645手，显示多空分歧加剧。波动率维持高位，价格在 | 继续在5100- | | | 5124-5278元/吨区间内反复。 | 5250元/吨的核 | | | | 心区间内震荡运 | | | 【供应方面】：国内正值压榨高峰期，本榨季增产预期强烈。仓单及有效预报合 | | | ...

晨会纪要 中原期货研究咨询部 公司官方微信 1 中原期货研究咨询部 | 化工 | 主力合约 | 2026/1/29 | 2026/1/28 | 涨跌 | 涨跌幅/% | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | | 8:00 | 15:00 | | | | | 焦煤 | 1,130.50 | 1,134.50 | -4.0 | -0.353 | | | 焦炭 | 1,692.50 | 1,684.00 | 8.50 | 0.505 | | | 天然橡胶 | 16,320.00 | 16,360.00 | -40.0 | -0.244 | | | 20号胶 | 13,190.00 | 13,190.00 | 0 | 0 | | | 塑料 | 6,981.00 | 6,967.00 | 14.0 | 0.201 | | | 聚丙烯PP | 6,809.00 | 6,778.00 | 31.0 | 0.457 | | | (PTA) | 5,298.00 | 5,370.00 | -72.0 | -1.341 | | | PVC | 4,894.00 | 4,913.00 ...

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. Core Viewpoints of the Report The report presents a comprehensive analysis of various sectors including chemicals, agriculture, macroeconomics, and finance. It details price movements, supply - demand dynamics, and market trends for different commodities and financial instruments. It also offers trading strategies and risk considerations for each segment. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Chemicals - On January 28, among the chemical products, crude oil had the largest increase with a 2.082% rise, while styrene had the largest decline with a 0.745% drop [4]. Agriculture - Sugar: Facing strong supply pressure but with cost support, it may maintain a low - level oscillation in the short term. Suggested to wait and see or conduct range operations [13]. - Corn: The upward momentum has weakened, and there is a risk of correction. It is recommended to wait and see, paying attention to the support at 2270 - 2280 yuan/ton [13]. - Peanuts: The market is expected to be volatile in the short term. It is advisable to conduct range operations, with the upper pressure around 8114 yuan and the lower support at the 8000 - yuan mark [13]. - Other agricultural products: Pig prices are likely to rise, egg prices are approaching their peak with an expected decline after the holiday, and cotton prices are expected to oscillate within a range [15]. Macroeconomic News - China will introduce policies to protect the rights of new - form workers, and the profit of industrial enterprises in 2025 has reversed the downward trend [7]. - The Nipah virus in India has little impact on China, and a new drug has shown antiviral activity [7]. - Shenzhen's Nanshan District has become the first district with a GDP exceeding one trillion [7]. - The British Prime Minister will visit China, and the US dollar index has dropped [8]. - There is a new wave of price increases in the global chip industry [8]. - New AI models have been released [9]. Main Varieties Morning Meeting Views - **Agricultural Products** -白糖: Affected by international and domestic supply, it is in a state of low - level oscillation. The key is to watch the support at 5100 - 5150 yuan/ton [13]. -玉米: The upward momentum is weakening, and attention should be paid to the support at 2270 - 2280 yuan/ton [13]. -花生: Oscillating in the short term, with the upper pressure at 8114 yuan and the lower support at 8000 yuan [13]. -生猪: The spot price is likely to rise, while the futures price is weak [15]. -鸡蛋: The spot price is approaching its peak, and the futures price shows a pattern of near - term strength and long - term weakness [15]. -红枣: The price is seeking support downward, and it is recommended to short after a rebound [15]. -棉花: Oscillating in a range, with support at 14500 yuan/ton and a possible decline to 14300 yuan/ton [15]. - **Energy and Chemicals** -烧碱: The supply is excessive, and the price is expected to be weakly stable [15]. -焦煤 and Coke: Pressured and oscillating weakly [17]. -原木: Oscillating in a range, with the upper pressure at 775 - 778 yuan and the lower support at 771 yuan [17]. -纸浆: Weakly oscillating, with support at 5300 yuan/ton [17]. -双胶纸: Oscillating in the 4100 - 4200 yuan/ton range, and beware of the price breaking below 4100 yuan [17]. - **Non - ferrous Metals** -铜 and Aluminum: The medium - term logic remains unchanged, with short - term adjustments and attention to macro risks [18]. -氧化铝: The supply is excessive, and the price is low [18]. -螺纹钢 and Hot Rolled Coil: The downstream winter storage intention is insufficient, and the steel mills' restocking is nearing the end. The support for rebar is at 3000 - 3100 yuan, and for hot - rolled coil is at 3200 - 3250 yuan [18]. -铁合金: The cost is supported, and the short - term trend is to go long on dips [19]. -碳酸锂: The price is strong in the short term, and it is advisable to go long above 170000 yuan/ton [19]. - **Option Finance** - **Stock Index Options** - On January 27, the A - share market showed mixed trends among different indexes. Trend investors can focus on arbitrage opportunities, and volatility investors can trade according to the price trend [21]. - The A - share index is oscillating at a high level. It is recommended to be cautiously optimistic in the short term, focus on the main market direction, and avoid chasing high prices [22].

作 者：杨江涛 执业证书编号：F03117249 交易咨询编号：Z0022644 联 系 方 式：0371-58620082 本周观点 | 品种 | 逻辑驱动 | 策略及风险提示 | | --- | --- | --- | | | 【现货市场】：现货价格持稳，柳州现货价周内维持在5340元/吨，环比无变化。 | | | | 但基差走强，周环比增长57.69%至82元/吨，反映期货价格下跌后现货相对坚挺。 | | | | 【期货市场】：主力合约周度下跌0.57%，收于5258元/吨，周内价格窄幅震荡。 | | | | 持仓量环比减少1.41%至426717手，显示市场交投情绪偏谨慎。 | | | | 【供应方面】：国内正值压榨高峰，新糖上市带来销售压力。仓单数量周环比激 | 预计未来1-2周， | | | 增135.24%至14126张，有效预报合计环比下降92.04%，表明实盘压力正加速转化 | 白糖主力合约区 | | | 为盘面压力。 | 间内延续震荡， | | | 【需求方面】：市场情绪偏空，周度市场调查显示看跌比例达50%，看升比例环比 | 方向性突破需等 | | | 下降33.33%至20%，下游消费 ...

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. 2. Core View of the Report - The lithium carbonate market has experienced a sharp rise and then a fall, with intensified games between policy disturbances and demand realities. The market is currently in a high - level wide - range oscillation stage, and the core contradiction lies in the game between the expected supply contraction caused by policy disturbances on the supply side and the weak demand reality of new - energy vehicles downstream. It is expected that the lithium carbonate price will enter a high - level oscillation and consolidation stage in the next 1 - 2 weeks [2]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Lithium Salt Market Introduction - **Price Changes**: The battery - grade lithium carbonate spot price increased by 12.33% to 156,250 yuan/ton this week. The futures price of lithium carbonate rose 1.94% to 146,200 yuan/ton. The spot prices of lithium hydroxide also had significant increases, with the price of electric - carbon (coarse particles) rising 14.02% to 150,500 yuan/ton, electric - carbon (fine powder) rising 13.48% to 155,700 yuan/ton, and industrial - carbon rising 14.60% to 145,200 yuan/ton [2][4]. - **Premium Changes**: The premium of different raw materials and enterprises has changed to varying degrees. For example, the premium of spodumene raw materials increased by 100 yuan, and the premium of Ganfeng Lithium Co., Ltd. increased by 200 yuan [7]. Lithium Salt Fundamentals - **Supply**: The domestic lithium carbonate capacity utilization rate remained at a high level of 87.14% with no week - on - week change. The supply side is mainly affected by news such as overseas mining rights policies and domestic environmental protection actions, and there is an expected long - term supply contraction. The production of lithium carbonate and lithium hydroxide in China and their production in different regions and from different raw materials are also involved in the report, but specific data are not detailed here [2]. - **Demand**: Downstream demand is differentiated. The production start - up rate of energy - storage cells has increased, but the new - energy vehicle sales data in early January decreased significantly year - on - year. The production schedule of cathode material factories in January is expected to decline month - on - month, and procurement is mainly for rigid demand [2]. - **Import and Export**: The salable inventory of port lithium ore traders decreased by 4.83% to 13.8 tons week - on - week, indicating a tight supply of imported raw materials. The freight cost of some routes increased slightly, such as the Nigeria route, which increased by 6.67% week - on - week [2][27]. - **Inventory**: The exchange warehouse receipt inventory increased by 8.27% to 27,458 lots, with significant increases in warehouses such as Jiangsu Benniu Port and Shanghai Xiangyu Sichuan Warehouse, indicating that spot goods are flowing into the futures market and inventory pressure has increased [2][40]. - **Cost and Profit**: The production cost of externally purchased lithium concentrate increased by 3.1% to 158,106 yuan/ton, higher than the futures closing price. The production profit decreased by 86.98% to - 1,856 yuan/ton, showing the effect of cost support [2]. Lithium - Battery Fundamentals - **Market and Supply of Cathode Materials**: The report involves the market and supply of cathode materials, including production volume and price, but specific data are not detailed [44][46]. - **Supply of Electrolytes**: The price and production volume of electrolytes are also mentioned, but specific data are not detailed [48]. - **Demand for Cathode Materials**: The consumption of cathode materials is involved, but specific data are not detailed [50]. - **Import and Export of Lithium - Battery Materials and Batteries**: The import and export of lithium - battery materials and batteries are mentioned, but specific data are not detailed [52][54]. - **Cost and Profit of Ternary Materials**: The cost and profit of ternary materials are involved, but specific data are not detailed [56]. - **Lithium - Battery Recycling**: Lithium - battery recycling is mentioned, but specific data are not detailed [58]. - **New - Energy Vehicle Production and Sales**: The production and sales of new - energy vehicles and other important data are involved, but specific data are not detailed [60][62].

中原期货研究咨询部 0371-58620083 晨会纪要 公司官方微信 1 中原期货研究咨询部 | 化工 | 主力合约 | 2026/1/26 | 2026/1/25 | 涨跌 | 涨跌幅/% | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | | 8:00 | 15:00 | | | | | 焦煤 | 1,143.00 | 1,157.00 | -14.0 | -1.210 | | | 焦炭 | 1,709.50 | 1,722.00 | -12.50 | -0.726 | | | 天然橡胶 | 16,255.00 | 16,315.00 | -60.0 | -0.368 | | | 20号胶 | 13,070.00 | 13,095.00 | -25.0 | -0.191 | | | 塑料 | 6,930.00 | 6,865.00 | 65.0 | 0.947 | | | 聚丙烯PP | 6,718.00 | 6,656.00 | 62.0 | 0.931 | | | (PTA) | 5,410.00 | 5,448.00 | -38.0 | -0.698 | | | ...

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The report presents the latest price data of various commodities, including chemical and agricultural products, and conducts a fundamental analysis of each commodity, providing corresponding trading strategies and risk warnings [4][11]. - It also covers macro - news such as real - estate policies, geopolitical events, and industrial developments, which may impact the financial market [6]. - In the financial sector, it analyzes the performance of stock index options and major stock indexes, giving investment suggestions based on market trends and regulatory policies [23]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Chemicals - On January 22, 2026, among chemical products, asphalt had the highest increase of 2.217%, while coke had the largest decrease of 0.743% [4]. Agricultural Products - On January 22, 2026, among agricultural products, palm oil had the highest increase of 0.974%, and corn starch had the largest decrease of 0.314% [4]. Macro - News - The Ministry of Housing and Urban - Rural Development will focus on promoting high - quality real - estate development, including building "good houses" and establishing a new real - estate development model, and promoting the spot - sale system for commercial housing [6]. - The US - Greenland issue has a new development. Trump reached an agreement framework with NATO Secretary - General Rutt, and the planned tariff measures will not be implemented, which affects the US stock and silver markets [6]. - NVIDIA CEO Huang Renxun pointed out that AI has initiated large - scale infrastructure construction, and AI will create high - value jobs [6]. - The Chinese Ministry of Foreign Affairs urged the EU to avoid protectionism regarding the EU's new network security policy [7]. - Five departments including the Ministry of Finance will set up new duty - free shops at 41 ports, and横琴Port duty - free shop allows Macau residents to buy up to 15,000 yuan of duty - free goods [7]. - The tax policy for innovative enterprise CDRs will be extended to December 31, 2027 [7]. - The Ministry of Finance will address the issue of abnormally low prices in government procurement starting from February 1, 2026 [7]. - China's first offshore liquid rocket launch and recovery test platform will be put into use around February 5, 2026, and a commercial liquid rocket will conduct a launch and recovery test during the Spring Festival [8]. - In 2025, China's AI core industry scale is expected to exceed 1.2 trillion yuan, with over 330 humanoid robot products released, and the 6G second - stage technical test has been launched [8]. Main Variety Morning Meeting Views Agricultural Products - Sugar: The supply pressure is high, but the price is near the cost line, and it is expected to oscillate and bottom out in the short term [11]. - Corn: The supply pressure is increasing, the demand support is weak, and it is in a high - level oscillation pattern. It is recommended to wait and see [11]. - Peanuts: The supply and demand are in a game, and the price may be stable in the short term. High - selling and low - buying within the 7900 - 8000 yuan/ton range can be considered [11]. - Pigs: The supply is loose, the demand boost is limited, and the futures market is bearish [11]. - Eggs: The supply is increasing, the demand is slow, but the Spring Festival consumption provides support, and the futures market is bullish [12]. - Red dates: The market is expected to enter a peak sales period during the festival, and short - selling after a rebound can be considered [12]. - Cotton: The supply is expected to tighten, but the demand is weak. It is expected to oscillate at a high level around 14,500 yuan, and waiting and seeing or range operation is recommended [12]. Energy and Chemicals - Caustic soda: The market price is weak, the supply is excessive, and a bearish approach is recommended [12]. - Coking coal and coke: The port inventory is high, the downstream replenishment slows down, and they are expected to oscillate within a range [13]. - Logs: The demand is recovering marginally, but the overall supply - demand is weak. It may oscillate strongly in the short term [13]. - Pulp: The supply pressure is high, the demand is weak, and it is expected to oscillate weakly. Waiting and seeing or short - selling at high prices is recommended [13]. - Offset printing paper: The supply is abundant, the demand is low, and it is in a weak balance. Waiting and seeing or short - selling at high prices is recommended [13]. Non - ferrous Metals - Copper and aluminum: Overseas macro - sentiment cools down, and they continue to consolidate at a high level. Attention should be paid to macro - risks [17]. - Alumina: The supply is excessive, and the price is low [18]. - Rebar and hot - rolled coil: The fundamentals are under pressure in the off - season, and they are expected to oscillate within a range [18]. - Ferrosilicon and silicomanganese: The black series is weak, but the raw material cost is firm. A short - term long - buying approach is recommended [21]. - Lithium carbonate: The supply is expected to shrink, the demand is strong, and low - buying on dips can be considered [21]. Option Finance - Stock index options: The performance of different stock index options varies. Trend investors can focus on arbitrage opportunities, and volatility investors can trade according to the rise and fall of the underlying [23]. - Stock indexes: The index trend is differentiated. For profitable positions, partial profit - taking can be considered. Wait for the index to adjust before making investments [26].

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The destocking of the five major steel products continued during the pre - holiday market. The fundamentals of rebar and hot - rolled coil improved, with prices forming some support at low levels. The market drivers were limited, and the spot and futures prices fluctuated within a narrow range. Overall, the destocking may gradually slow down, and the upward momentum of prices is insufficient. Steel prices are expected to be under pressure in the short term, but the downside space is limited. Iron ore is in a situation of increasing supply and demand, but high port inventories will put pressure on its subsequent trend. The prices of coking coal and coke are expected to be under pressure and fluctuate weakly in the short term [3][4][5][9]. Summary by Directory 1. Market Review - During the pre - holiday market, the five major steel products continued to destock. The fundamentals of rebar and hot - rolled coil improved, and prices at low levels provided some support. The market drivers were limited, with strong wait - and - see sentiment, and the spot and futures prices fluctuated within a narrow range [9]. 2. Steel Supply and Demand Analysis - **Production**: Rebar and hot - rolled coil both increased production. Rebar's weekly output was 188.22 tons (up 2.08% week - on - week and down 8.64% year - on - year), and hot - rolled coil's weekly output was 304.51 tons (up 3.74% week - on - week and up 0.58% year - on - year). Rebar's blast furnace and electric furnace production both increased. The blast furnace weekly output was 157.49 tons (up 1.62% week - on - week and down 11.32% year - on - year), and the electric furnace weekly output was 30.73 tons (up 4.49% week - on - week and up 8.17% year - on - year) [13][17][22]. - **Operating Rate**: The operating rates of blast furnaces and electric furnaces both increased. The national blast furnace operating rate was 78.94% (up 0.79% week - on - week and up 0.29% year - on - year), and the electric furnace operating rate was 68.63% (up 1.48% week - on - week and up 1.13% year - on - year) [23][27]. - **Profit**: Rebar's profit increased, while hot - rolled coil's profit slightly decreased. Rebar's profit was +48 yuan/ton (up 21 yuan/ton week - on - week and down 38 yuan/ton year - on - year), and hot - rolled coil's profit was - 29 yuan/ton (down 14 yuan/ton week - on - week and down 58 yuan/ton year - on - year) [28][31]. - **Demand**: Rebar's demand slightly decreased, while hot - rolled coil's demand increased. Rebar's apparent consumption was 200.44 tons (down 1.11% week - on - week and up 5.47% year - on - year), and the 5 - day average of national building materials transactions was 9.66 tons (down 1.54% week - on - week and down 8.07% year - on - year). Hot - rolled coil's apparent consumption was 310.77 tons (up 1.21% week - on - week and up 2.66% year - on - year) [32][36]. - **Inventory**: Rebar's inventory continued to decline, with both factory and social inventories decreasing. Rebar's factory inventory was 139.37 tons (down 0.49% week - on - week and up 14.76% year - on - year), social inventory was 282.66 tons (down 3.92% week - on - week and down 1.53% year - on - year), and total inventory was 422.03 tons (down 2.81% week - on - week and up 3.31% year - on - year). Hot - rolled coil's inventory decreased, with factory inventory rising and social inventory decreasing. Factory inventory was 82.32 tons (up 2.24% week - on - week and up 0.59% year - on - year), social inventory was 288.64 tons (down 2.72% week - on - week and up 24.01% year - on - year), and total inventory was 370.96 tons (down 1.66% week - on - week and up 20.79% year - on - year) [37][41][42][46]. - **Downstream Industries**: In the real estate sector, both the commercial housing and land markets declined month - on - month. The weekly transaction area of commercial housing in 30 large - and medium - sized cities decreased by 26.09% month - on - month and 16.33% year - on - year, and the transaction area of land in 100 large - and medium - sized cities decreased by 74.78% month - on - month and 49.44% year - on - year. In the automotive sector, in November 2025, automobile production and sales continued to grow both month - on - month and year - on - year. Production and sales were 3.532 million and 3.429 million vehicles respectively, up 5.1% and 3.2% month - on - month, and 2.8% and 3.4% year - on - year [47][49][52]. 3. Iron Ore Supply and Demand Analysis - **Supply**: Iron ore shipments and arrivals both increased month - on - month. The price index of iron ore was 107.92 (up 1.05% month - on - month and up 11.23% year - on - year). The shipments from Australia and Brazil were 3059.6 tons (up 8.70% month - on - month and up 23.36% year - on - year), and the arrivals at 45 ports were 2756.4 tons (up 5.96% month - on - month and down 2.75% year - on - year) [55][60]. - **Demand**: The daily output of hot metal continued to increase, and the port clearance volume increased. The daily output of hot metal was 227.43 tons (up 0.85 tons week - on - week and up 2.23 tons year - on - year), the port clearance volume of 45 ports was 325.21 tons (up 3.22% week - on - week and up 2.18% year - on - year), and the inventory - to - sales ratio of 247 steel enterprises was 31.88 days (up 0.76% week - on - week and down 9.2% year - on - year) [61][65]. - **Inventory**: Iron ore port inventories continued to reach new highs, and steel enterprises' iron ore inventories increased. The inventory at 45 ports was 15970.89 tons (up 0.71% week - on - week and up 6.45% year - on - year), the imported iron ore inventory of 247 steel enterprises was 8949.54 tons (up 0.97% week - on - week and down 9.25% year - on - year), and the average available days of iron ore for 114 steel enterprises was 25.42 days (up 0.95% week - on - week and down 7.43% year - on - year) [66][70]. 4. Coking Coal and Coke Supply and Demand Analysis - **Supply**: The operating rate of domestic coking coal mines decreased month - on - month, while Mongolian coal customs clearance remained at a high level. The operating rate of coking coal mines was 79.63% (down 5.44% month - on - month and down 10.21% year - on - year), the capacity utilization rate of coal washing plants was 35.09% (down 3.39% month - on - month and up 7.37% year - on - year), and the average daily Mongolian coal customs clearance volume was 19.05 tons (up 49.47% month - on - month and up 33.49% year - on - year) [72][76]. - **Demand**: The transaction rate of coking coal auctions decreased month - on - month. The daily transaction rate of coking coal auctions was 65.25% (down 4.07% month - on - month and down 4.47% year - on - year), and the weekly transaction rate was 71.74% (down 12.94% week - on - week and up 54.91% year - on - year) [77][79]. - **Coking Enterprises**: The profit of independent coking plants slightly recovered month - on - month, and the capacity utilization rate slightly increased. The profit per ton of coke in independent coking plants was - 14 yuan/ton (up 4 yuan/ton month - on - month and up 2 yuan/ton year - on - year), the capacity utilization rate of independent coking plants was 70.74% (up 0.55% month - on - month and down 2.45% year - on - year), and the capacity utilization rate of steel mills' coke was 85.58% (up 0.07% month - on - month and down 0.34% year - on - year) [81][85]. - **Coking Coal Inventory**: Port inventories increased month - on - month, and coking plant inventories increased. The coking coal inventory of independent coking plants was 896.10 tons (up 1.42% month - on - month and up 1.02% year - on - year), the coking coal inventory of steel mills was 802.50 tons (down 0.49% month - on - month and up 3.43% year - on - year), and the coking coal port inventory was 301.3 tons (up 0.60% month - on - month and down 39.59% year - on - year) [86][91]. - **Coke Inventory**: Port inventories increased slightly, and coking plant inventories decreased. The coke inventory of independent coking plants was 48.7 tons (down 2.87% month - on - month and down 3.91% year - on - year), the coke inventory of steel mills was 643.99 tons (up 0.28% month - on - month and down 1.67% year - on - year), and the coke port inventory was 180.09 tons (up 1.06% month - on - month and up 4.57% year - on - year) [92][97]. - **Spot Price**: The fourth round of coke price cuts was implemented, and the game between steel and coking enterprises continued. The price of low - sulfur coking coal in Shanxi was 1500 yuan/ton (down 100 yuan/ton week - on - week and up 70 yuan/ton year - on - year), and the ex - factory price of quasi - first - grade metallurgical coke in Handan was 1340 yuan/ton (down 50 yuan/ton month - on - month and down 220 yuan/ton year - on - year) [98][102]. 5. Spread Analysis - The basis of rebar slightly shrank, and the 1 - 5 spreads of rebar and hot - rolled coil both shrank. The coil - to - rebar spread continued to shrink, and the 1 - 5 spread of iron ore shrank [104][108].

Report Title - The report is titled "Carbonate Lithium Weekly Report (December 29, 2025 - December 31, 2025): High - level Volatility in the Carbonate Lithium Market, Game between Weakening Demand Expectations and Cost Support" [1] Report Industry Investment Rating - Not mentioned in the report Core View - In the next 1 - 2 weeks, the price of carbonate lithium will maintain a high - level shock pattern under the cost support and weakening demand expectations, with the center of gravity possibly moving slightly downward [2] Summary by Relevant Catalogs Lithium Salt Market Conditions - **Carbonate Lithium Futures and Spot**: The average price of battery - grade carbonate lithium spot dropped to 117,250 yuan/ton, a week - on - week decrease of 2.62%. The futures price of carbonate lithium decreased from 130,520 yuan/ton to 121,580 yuan/ton, a week - on - week decrease of 6.85%. The futures were at a premium to the spot, and the basis was - 4,330 yuan/ton, narrowing by 57.21% week - on - week [2][4] - **Lithium Hydroxide Spot**: The prices of various types of lithium hydroxide spot all increased. The price of lithium hydroxide (electro - carbon, coarse particles) increased from 102,400 yuan/ton to 109,500 yuan/ton, a week - on - week increase of 6.93%; the price of lithium hydroxide (electro - carbon, fine powder) increased from 107,600 yuan/ton to 114,700 yuan/ton, a week - on - week increase of 6.60%; the price of lithium hydroxide (industrial carbon) increased from 97,100 yuan/ton to 104,200 yuan/ton, a week - on - week increase of 7.31% [4] - **Carbonate Lithium Premium**: The weekly change in the premium of carbonate lithium from different raw materials and enterprises was 200 yuan/ton [7] Lithium Salt Fundamentals Supply - **Carbonate Lithium Production**: The domestic carbonate lithium capacity utilization rate remained at a high level of 83.52%, and the production in December was expected to increase. The capacity utilization rate of lithium hydroxide decreased by 2.56 percentage points to 38.0% week - on - week, indicating some production line conversions or overhauls [2] Demand - **Mid - and Downstream Consumption**: The demand side showed differentiation. The operating rate of energy - storage cells remained high, but many leading cathode material manufacturers announced overhaul plans for January, indicating that the downstream demand might decline significantly month - on - month, and procurement turned to rigid demand [2] Import and Export - **Lithium Ore Import**: The seasonal production reduction expectation of salt lakes constituted a potential supply disturbance, and the arrival of imported lithium concentrate at ports needed to be monitored [2] - **Lithium Ore Transportation Cost**: The transportation costs of lithium ore from South Africa, Zimbabwe, and Nigeria remained unchanged week - on - week [28] Inventory - **Carbonate Lithium Warehouse Receipt Inventory**: The exchange warehouse receipt inventory increased to 20,281 lots, a significant week - on - week increase of 13.55%. The inventory in major warehouses such as Shanghai Xiangyu Speed - Transfer Warehouse and COSCO Shipping Zhenjiang Warehouse increased significantly, showing inventory accumulation pressure [2][41] Cost and Profit - **Carbonate Lithium**: The production cost of externally purchased lithium concentrate was 124,744 yuan/ton, a week - on - week decrease of 3.95%. The production profit was - 7,494 yuan/ton, and the loss increased by 20.91% week - on - week. The cost line provided some support for the current price [2] Lithium - battery Fundamentals - **Positive Electrode Materials**: Information on the market conditions, supply, demand, and cost - profit of positive electrode materials is included in the report, but specific data is not elaborated in the provided content [45][47][51][57] - **Lithium - battery Materials and Batteries Import and Export**: Information on the import and export of lithium - battery materials and batteries is included, but specific data is not elaborated [53][55] - **New Energy Vehicles**: Information on the production, sales, and other important data of new energy vehicles is included, but specific data is not elaborated [61][63] - **Lithium - battery Recycling**: Information on lithium - battery recycling is included, but specific data is not elaborated [59]

Report Title - "Sugar Market in Low-level Fluctuation: Game between Cost Support and Supply Pressure - Sugar Weekly Report from December 29, 2025, to January 2, 2026" [1] Report Author - Yang Jiangtao, with practice certificate number F03117249 and trading consultation number Z0022644, contact: 0371 - 58620082 [2] Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Core Viewpoints - In the next 1 - 2 weeks, the main sugar contract will continue to fluctuate in the range of 5,200 - 5,300 yuan per ton, and a directional breakthrough awaits new drivers [3] - The current market is in a low-level fluctuation stage. The core contradiction between long and short lies in the game between supply - side pressure (domestic peak crushing period and a sharp increase in warehouse receipts) and cost support (domestic sugar mill and import cost lines) [3] - The decline in futures positions shows strong market wait - and - see sentiment. Prices are supported near the cost line, but the upside is limited by warehouse receipt pressure and global production increase expectations [3] Summary by Directory 1. Market Review 1.1 Weekly Review - Futures: The closing price of the No. 11 sugar continuous contract decreased by 1.05% to 15.01, and the closing price of the Zhengzhou sugar main contract decreased by 0.64% to 5,251 [5] - Spot: Nanning's current price decreased by 0.37% to 5,320 yuan/ton, Liuzhou's by 0.38% to 5,310 yuan/ton, and Kunming's by 0.38% to 5,180 yuan/ton, while Rizhao Lingyunhai remained unchanged at 5,780 yuan/ton [5] - Basis: The basis between Liuzhou sugar and the main contract increased by 31.11% to 59 yuan/ton [5] - Warehouse Receipts: The number of warehouse receipts increased by 2.86% to 5,182, and the effective forecast increased by 163.20% to 3,690. The total of warehouse receipts and effective forecasts increased by 37.76% to 8,872 [5] - Market Sentiment: The bullish ratio of Zhengzhou sugar increased by 5 percentage points to 30%, the bearish ratio decreased by 5 percentage points to 50%, and the neutral ratio remained at 20% [5] 1.2 Domestic Futures and Spot - Not detailed in the provided content 1.3 Raw Sugar Futures - Not detailed in the provided content 2. Fundamental Analysis 2.1 China's Sugar Production and Sales - Not detailed in the provided content 2.2 Production and Sales in Major Domestic Sugar - cane Producing Areas - Not detailed in the provided content 2.3 Production and Sales in Major Domestic Sugar - beet Producing Areas - Not detailed in the provided content 2.4 China's White Sugar Industrial Inventory - Not detailed in the provided content 2.5 China's Sugar Imports and Exports - Not detailed in the provided content 2.6 China's Major Sugar Importing Countries - Not detailed in the provided content 2.7 China's Sugar Import Cost and Profit - For Brazil, the in - quota processing cost decreased by 2.57% to 3,948 yuan/ton, and the out - of - quota by 2.61% to 5,034 yuan/ton; the in - quota import profit increased by 5.77% to 1,832 yuan/ton, and the out - of - quota by 21.50% to 746 yuan/ton [30] - For Thailand, the in - quota processing cost decreased by 2.47% to 3,993 yuan/ton, and the out - of - quota by 2.53% to 5,092 yuan/ton; the in - quota import profit increased by 5.74% to 1,787 yuan/ton, and the out - of - quota by 23.08% to 688 yuan/ton [30] 3. International Market Fundamentals 3.1 Brazil's Available Sugar Volume - Not detailed in the provided content 3.2 Brazil's Sugar - cane Crushing Volume - Not detailed in the provided content 3.3 Brazil's Sugar Production - Not detailed in the provided content 3.4 Brazil's Ethanol Production - Not detailed in the provided content 3.5 Brazil's Sugar Imports and Exports - Not detailed in the provided content 3.6 International Raw Sugar Premium and Freight Costs - Not detailed in the provided content