供需变化不大 成本扰动加剧 ——铁合金周报20251208 研 究 咨 询 部 ：彭博涵 联 系 方 式 ：0371-58630083 电 子 邮 箱 ：pengbh_qh@ccnew.com 执 业证书 编 号 ：F3076814 投资咨询 编 号 ：Z0016415 01 硅铁 本期观点 | 品种 | 主要逻辑 | 策略建议 | 风险点 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | 供应：产量止降回升。 | | | | | 需求：成材产量止增回落。 | | | | | 库存：厂库回升。 | | | | | 成本：成本小幅抬升。 | | 反内卷政 | | | | | 策、中美 | | 硅铁 | 基差：盘面回落基差转正。 | 低位震荡。 | 贸易谈判 | | | 总结：上周双硅盘面低位止跌反弹，11月宁夏青海结算电费稳中走高，企业年末 | | 等政策不 | | | 生产压力增大，市场预期转暖。基本面看，上周硅铁供增需降，前期检修厂家恢 | | 确定性 | | | 复生产，厂库止降回升。年末铁合金供需双弱，价格跟随黑色系弱势波动。但合 | | | | | 金产业已持续亏损数月，行情亦缺乏继续下 ...

库存创出新高，价格创出新低 ——烧碱周报2025.12.08 作者： 刘培洋 联系方式：0371-58620083 电子邮箱：liupy_qh@ccnew.com 执业证书编号：F0290318 交易咨询编号：Z0011155 本期观点 | 品种 | 主要逻辑 | 策略建议 | 风险提示 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | 1、宏观：国内关注年底中央会议，海外重点关注本周美联储12月份 | | | | | 议息会议。 | 烧碱2601合约 | 1、国内外宏 | | | 2、供需面：山东地区供应高位，需求刚需，主力下游压车，短期整 | | 观政策及经 | | | 体预计缓慢，再需求端无明显增量，供应端不减量的情况下，山东 | 上方参考压力 | 济数据变化； | | 烧碱 | 液碱短期依旧小幅看跌。华东区域内供应仍宽裕，供需矛盾仍偏大， | 位2250元/吨 | 2、企业装置 | | | 传统需求淡季延续，出口未有明显提振下预估下液碱价格延续趋弱 | 一线，下方支 | 检修情况； | | | | 撑位2000元/ | | | | 表现。 | 吨一线。 | 3、下游需求 | | | 3、 ...

Report Summary 1. Industry Investment Rating No investment rating information provided in the report. 2. Core View The report predicts that after this round of rebound, cotton prices will gradually return to a volatile pattern. Although the Fed's interest - rate cut expectation is rising, the support is limited. The global supply - demand pattern is weak, with low demand. In the domestic market, the positive macro - environment and short - term spot resource shortage support the market, and downstream rigid demand persists. [3] 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Market Review - **US Cotton**: ICE cotton was reported at 63.82 - 64.85 cents per pound, with a Friday closing price of 63.93 cents per pound, a week - on - week decrease of 1.2%. As of November 28, the number of unpriced contracts of sellers on the ON - CALL 2603 contract increased by 634 to 21,716, equivalent to an increase of 10,000 tons from last week. The total number of unpriced contracts of sellers in the 25/26 season increased by 1,001 to 39,293, equivalent to 890,000 tons, an increase of 20,000 tons from last week. The total number of unpriced contracts of ICE sellers increased to 48,920, equivalent to 1.11 million tons, an increase of 1,482 (or 30,000 tons) from last week [9]. - **Zhengzhou Cotton**: It was reported at 13,660 - 13,820 yuan per ton, with a Friday closing price of 13,750 yuan per ton, a week - on - week increase of 25 yuan. As of December 5, the number of registered warehouse receipts for No. 1 cotton was 2,709, and the number of forecast warehouse receipts was 2,781, totaling 5,490, equivalent to 230,580 tons [10]. - **Domestic Cotton Spot**: The price center of domestic cotton spot prices moved slightly upward and then fluctuated in a narrow range this week. The one - time price of cotton spot increased, and the sales basis of cotton spot weakened. The one - time price of 2025/26 southern Xinjiang hand - picked cotton and northern Xinjiang machine - picked cotton was mostly quoted at around 14,800 - 14,950 yuan per ton (gross weight), and the actual transaction was slightly discounted. [13][16] 3.2 Domestic Cotton Market - **Supply**: The China Cotton Association predicts that the total cotton output in the 2025/26 season will reach 7.216 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 8.3%, the highest since 2013. The Xinjiang cotton region is expected to produce about 6.911 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 9.2%, accounting for 95.8% of the national total. In October 2025, 90,000 tons of cotton were imported, a year - on - year decrease of 15,800 tons and a month - on - month decrease of 5,000 tons. From January to October 2025, the cumulative import was 770,800 tons, a year - on - year decrease of 67.4% (or 1.595 million tons). The cumulative import in the 2025/26 season was 185,000 tons, a year - on - year decrease of 17% (or 38,000 tons) [19][26]. - **Demand**: The demand performance is average but still shows resilience, and the operating rate remains flat [29][35]. - **Profit**: The processing profit of ginning mills this week was 722 - 762 yuan per ton, and the immediate profit of spinning mills was - 1,099.6 - - 1,053.4 yuan per ton [38]. - **Inventory**: As of the week of December 8, the national commercial cotton inventory was 4.465 million tons, a week - on - week increase of 285,600 tons, higher than the same period last year by 14,680 tons. At the end of October, the industrial cotton inventory of cotton textile enterprises was 874,200 tons, a month - on - month increase of 42,200 tons [44]. 3.3 International Market - **Global Cotton Supply - Demand**: According to the latest November global cotton production and sales forecast by USDA, the global output was 26.145 million tons, a significant month - on - month increase of 523,000 tons, mainly due to the output adjustments in China and the US. The demand increased slightly to 25.883 million tons, showing an overall bearish trend [46].

碳酸锂市场震荡回调，供增需减预期主导价 格下行 --碳酸锂周报2025年12月1日-12月5日 作 者：杨江涛 执业证书编号：F03117249 交易咨询编号：Z0022644 联 系 方 式：0371-58620082 本周观点 | 品种 | 逻辑驱动 | 策略及风险提示 | | --- | --- | --- | | | 【现货市场】：电池级碳酸锂现货价格周内下跌2.36%至91100元/吨，工业级下跌 | | | | 2.4%至89650元/吨，市场情绪转弱。期货深度贴水，基差环比大幅收窄66.03%至 | | | | 1060元/吨，反映现货压力相对更大。 | | | | 【期货市场】：主力合约周度下跌4.42%至92160元/吨，周内波动剧烈， | | | | 【供应方面】：12月国内碳酸锂产量预计环比增长3%，但盐湖季节性减产构成短 | | | | 期扰动。周度产能利用率维持在75.34%的高位，供应整体充裕。 | 未来1-2周，市 | | | 【需求方面】：需求端出现分化，储能电芯排产维持增长构成支撑，但下游正极 | 场或延续偏弱震 | | | 材料12月排产计划环比下滑，新能源车增速放缓，市场 ...

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No investment rating information is provided in the report. 2. Core View of the Report The sugar market is expected to remain weak under multiple supply pressures, and the main contract may continue to test the support around 5,200 yuan/ton in the next 1 - 2 weeks. The core contradiction lies in the imbalance between the supply increase caused by the concentrated listing of new domestic and foreign sugar and the weak downstream demand. The accelerated domestic crushing progress and the optimistic production expectations of major international producers have jointly pressured the market, leading to a simultaneous weakening of futures and spot prices, with funds leaving the market to wait and see, and the market struggling to find effective support in the short term [3]. 3. Summary According to the Table of Contents 3.1. Market Review - **Weekly Review**: The 11 - day sugar continuous contract closed at 14.8, down 2.70% from last Friday; the main Zhengzhou sugar contract closed at 5,303 yuan/ton, down 1.80%. Spot prices in major domestic producing areas generally declined, with Nanning, Liuzhou, and Kunming down 1.65%, 1.65%, and 1.84% respectively. The basis of Liuzhou sugar and the main contract increased by 17.50% to 47 yuan/ton. The total of warehouse receipts and valid forecasts remained unchanged at 183. Market sentiment showed that the proportion of those bullish, bearish, and neutral on Zhengzhou sugar remained unchanged at 10%, 55%, and 35% respectively [5]. 3.2. Fundamental Analysis - **China's Sugar Production and Sales**: Not elaborated in the provided content. - **China's Sugarcane Sugar Production and Sales in Major Producing Areas**: Not elaborated in the provided content. - **China's Beet Sugar Production and Sales in Major Producing Areas**: Not elaborated in the provided content. - **China's White Sugar Industrial Inventory**: The data has not been updated, and the market is concerned about the inventory accumulation progress after the listing of new sugar [3]. - **China's Sugar Import and Export**: The import profit margin has expanded. The processing profits of Thai and Brazilian sugar within the quota increased by 1.66% and 2.14% week - on - week respectively, and the profits outside the quota increased even more (7.47% and 8.68%) [3]. - **China's Major Sugar Importing Countries**: Not elaborated in the provided content. - **China's Sugar Import Cost and Profit**: The import processing cost decreased by 1% - 2% week - on - week. For Brazil, the quota - within processing cost decreased by 1.58% to 3,987 yuan/ton, and the quota - outside decreased by 1.63% to 5,085 yuan/ton; the quota - within import profit increased by 2.14% to 1,812 yuan/ton, and the quota - outside increased by 8.68% to 714 yuan/ton. For Thailand, the quota - within processing cost decreased by 1.37% to 4,027 yuan/ton, and the quota - outside decreased by 1.40% to 5,137 yuan/ton; the quota - within import profit increased by 1.66% to 1,772 yuan/ton, and the quota - outside increased by 7.47% to 662 yuan/ton [29]. 3.3. International Market Fundamentals - **Brazil's Available Sugar Quantity**: Not elaborated in the provided content. - **Brazil's Sugarcane Crushing Volume**: Not elaborated in the provided content. - **Brazil's Sugar Production**: Not elaborated in the provided content. - **Brazil's Ethanol Production**: Not elaborated in the provided content. - **Brazil's Sugar Import and Export**: Not elaborated in the provided content. - **International Raw Sugar Premiums and Freight Costs**: Not elaborated in the provided content.

中原期货研究咨询部 晨会纪要 2025 第（222）期 发布日期：2025-12-08 | 中原期货研究咨询部 | 0371-58620081 | | --- | --- | | 0371-58620083 | | | 公司官方微信 | | 0371-58620083 公司官方微信 1 中原期货研究咨询部 | 化工 | 主力合约 | 2025/12/8 | 2025/12/7 | 涨跌 | 涨跌幅/% | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | | 8:00 | 15:00 | | | | | 焦煤 | 1,104.00 | 1,140.00 | -36.0 | -3.158 | | | 焦炭 | 1,552.50 | 1,585.00 | -32.50 | -2.050 | | | 天然橡胶 | 15,060.00 | 15,065.00 | -5.0 | -0.033 | | | 20号胶 | 12,065.00 | 12,045.00 | 20.0 | 0.166 | | | 塑料 | 6,654.00 | 6,674.00 | -20.0 | -0.30 | ...

中原期货研究咨询部 晨会纪要 2025 第（221）期 发布日期：2025-12-05 | 中原期货研究咨询部 | 0371-58620081 | | --- | --- | | 0371-58620083 | | | 公司官方微信 | | 公司官方微信 1 中原期货研究咨询部 | 化工 | 主力合约 | 2025/12/5 | 2025/12/4 | 涨跌 | 涨跌幅/% | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | | 8:00 | 15:00 | | | | | 焦煤 | 1,177.00 | 1,091.50 | 85.50 | 7.833 | | | 焦炭 | 1,656.50 | 1,651.50 | 5.0 | 0.303 | | | 天然橡胶 | 15,070.00 | 15,040.00 | 30.0 | 0.199 | | | 20号胶 | 12,015.00 | 11,970.00 | 45.0 | 0.376 | | | 塑料 | 6,735.00 | 6.776.00 | -41.0 | -0.605 | | | 聚丙烯PP | 6,331. ...

中原期货研究咨询部 晨会纪要 2025 第（216）期 发布日期：2025-11-28 | | | | 商品指数每日市场跟踪 | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 宏观指标 | | 2025/11/28 | 2025/11/27 | 涨 跌 | 涨跌幅/% | | | | 08:00 | 15:00 | | | | 道琼斯工业指数 | | 47427.12 | 47112.45 | 314.670 | 0.668 | | 纳斯达克指数 | | 23214.69 | 23025.59 | 189.10 | 0.821 | | 标普500 | | 6812.61 | 6765.88 | 46.730 | 0.691 | | 恒生指数 | | 25945.93 | 25928.08 | 17.850 | 0.069 | | SHIBOR隔夜 | | 1.31 | 1.32 | -0.002 | -0.152 | | 美元指数 | | 99.53 | 99.55 | -0.025 | -0.025 | | 美元兑人民币(CFETS) | | 7.08 | 7.08 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The global capital market is undergoing a systematic recovery, driven by factors such as the Fed's potential interest - rate cuts, moderating core inflation, and AI technological breakthroughs [21]. - In the commodity market, different varieties show diverse trends. For example, precious metals are rising due to factors like the Fed's dovish stance and geopolitical uncertainties, while oil prices are under pressure due to the progress of the Russia - Ukraine peace talks and concerns about the US economic data [8]. - In the stock market, the three major indices rebounded on November 25, but the short - term rebound may be limited, and investors should maintain a balanced allocation and consider appropriate option strategies [22]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs 3.1 Commodity Index Daily Market Tracking - **Stock Indices**: On November 26, 2025, the Dow Jones Industrial Index rose 1.43% to 47112.45, the Nasdaq Index rose 0.671% to 23025.59, the S&P 500 rose 0.906% to 6765.88, and the Hang Seng Index rose 0.692% to 25894.55 [2]. - **Currencies**: The SHIBOR overnight rate remained unchanged at 1.32, the US dollar index rose 0.01% to 99.82, and the US dollar against the RMB (CFETS) remained unchanged at 7.09 [2]. - **Commodities**: COMEX gold rose 0.76% to 4165.20, COMEX silver rose 1.163% to 51.75, while NYMEX crude oil fell 1.325% to 58.11, and ICE Brent crude oil fell 1.323% to 61.90. Most domestic commodities also showed different degrees of rise or fall [2]. 3.2 Macro - economic News - The China - US heads - of - state phone call initiated by the US is of great significance for the stable development of China - US relations [7]. - The Chinese government will hold a policy briefing to introduce measures to enhance the adaptability of consumer goods supply and demand and promote consumption [7]. - Trump's team has made great progress in the Russia - Ukraine peace talks, and relevant parties are working towards finalizing a peace plan [7]. - From January to October, China's full - industry foreign direct investment increased by 6.2% year - on - year, and the newly - signed contract value of foreign contracted projects increased by 18.6% year - on - year [7]. - In September, US PPI and core PPI accelerated month - on - month, while retail sales growth slowed down [8]. - Oil prices fell due to the progress of the Russia - Ukraine peace talks and concerns about the US economic data, while precious metals rose due to the Fed's dovish stance and geopolitical uncertainties [8]. - The RMB against the US dollar rose, breaking through the 7.09 mark [9]. 3.3 Morning Meeting Views on Major Varieties 3.3.1 Agricultural Products - Peanuts: On November 25, peanut futures rose 0.53% to 7936 yuan/ton. The short - term may maintain a volatile and slightly strong pattern, and investors are advised to wait and see [11]. - Sugar: On November 25, sugar futures rose 0.52% to 5387 yuan/ton. With increasing supply pressure, a bearish view is recommended [11]. - Corn: On November 25, corn futures rose 1.63% to 2242 yuan/ton. The short - term is expected to be strong, and investors are advised to wait and see [11]. - Pigs: The national pig price was slightly weak. With the increase in the spread between standard and fat pigs, there is some pressure - holding sentiment in the market [11]. - Eggs: The national egg spot price was stable. With the improvement of supply - demand contradiction, the futures market is expected to stop falling and stabilize [11][12]. - Cotton: On November 25, Zhengzhou cotton futures rose 0.66% to 13645 yuan/ton. It is expected to maintain a range - bound pattern between 13500 - 13700 yuan/ton [12]. 3.3.2 Energy and Chemicals - Caustic Soda: The supply - demand pattern is weak, and the 2601 contract is expected to continue to run weakly [12]. - Urea: The domestic urea market is slightly weak. The short - term may continue to fluctuate weakly, and the UR2601 contract should pay attention to the support at 1580 - 1600 yuan/ton [12]. - Coking Coal: The short - term prices of coking coal and coke are under pressure and are expected to fluctuate weakly [12]. - Pulp: On November 25, pulp futures fell 0.27% to 5212 yuan/ton. The supply - demand pattern is loose, and the price may continue to be under pressure [12][13]. 3.3.3 Industrial Metals - Copper and Aluminum: Copper and aluminum prices are expected to remain high, but attention should be paid to macro risks [15]. - Alumina: The fundamental situation of alumina is in an oversupply pattern. The 2601 contract is running at a low level, and attention should be paid to the interference of factors such as bauxite [16]. - Rebar and Hot - rolled Coil: They are expected to fluctuate within a range, with rebar at 3000 - 3150 yuan and hot - rolled coil at 3200 - 3350 yuan [17]. - Ferrous Alloys: At the end of the year, the supply and demand of ferrous alloys are weak, and the price follows the weak trend of the black series. There is no driving force for further decline, and the industrial rebound hedging idea remains unchanged [20]. - Lithium Carbonate: On November 25, the lithium carbonate futures contract rose 4.47% to 95400 yuan/ton. The short - term should pay attention to the performance at the 95000 - yuan pressure level [20]. 3.3.4 Options and Finance - Stock Index: The three major indices stopped falling and rebounded on November 25. The short - term rebound may be limited, and investors should maintain a balanced allocation and consider appropriate option strategies [22]. - Options: On November 25, the three major A - share indices strengthened. Trend investors can pay attention to the strength - weakness arbitrage opportunities between varieties, and volatility investors can consider selling wide - straddle strategies after a significant increase in volatility [23][24].

本周观点 | 品种 | 逻辑驱动 | 策略及风险提示 | | --- | --- | --- | | 【现货市场】柳州现货价周跌3.19%至5470元/吨，基差收窄35%至117元/吨，市场 | 情绪偏悲观，看跌比例升至55%。 | | | 【期货市场】主力合约周跌2.14%至5353元/吨，持仓量增长12.55%至41.67万手， | | | | 预计未来1-2周 | | | | 价格连续五日收阴呈现单边下行特征。 | | | | 白糖期货将继续 | | | | 【供应方面】北半球新榨季稳步推进，印度截至11月15日产量达105万吨，国内广 | | | | 向下寻底，关注 | | | | 西新糖集中上市，植被指数显示产量预期良好。 | | | | 5300元/吨关键 | | | | 【需求方面】现货成交持续清淡，加工糖报价局部松动至5750-5890元/吨，消费 | | | | 支撑位表现。 | | | | 支撑明显减弱。 | | | | 风险提示：广西 | | | | 白糖 | 【进口出口】10月食糖进口75万吨同比增39.7%，1-10月累计进口同比增长13.8%， | | | 新糖集中上市加 | | ...