投资咨询业务资格 证监发【2014】217号 钢铁关税提高，钢价承压下行 ——周报20250603 投 资 咨 询 编 号 ：Z0020978 研究所 ：林娜 联 系 方 式 ：0371-58620083 电 子 邮 箱 ：linna_qh@ccnew.com 执 业 证 书 编 号 ：F03099603 | 本期观点——螺纹钢、热卷 | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 品种 | 主要逻辑 | 策略建议 | 风险点 | | | 供应：全国螺纹周产量225.51万吨（环比-2.58%，同比-5.83%），全国热卷周产 | | | | | 量319.55万吨（环比+4.54%，同比-0.96%）。 | | | | | 消费：螺纹钢表观消费248.68万吨（环比+0.63%，同比+7.59%），热卷表观消费 | | | | | 326.93万吨（环比+4.43%，同比+3.27%）。 | | | | | 库存：螺纹总库存581.05万吨（环比-3.83%，同比-24.90%），热卷总库存 | | | | | 332.81万吨（环比-2.17%，同比-20.62%）。 | | | ...

中原期货研究所 晨会纪要 2025 第（98）期 发布日期：2025-06-04 | 投资咨询业务资格 | | | --- | --- | | 证监发【2014】217 | 号 | | 中原期货研究所 | 0371-58620081 | | 0371-58620083 | | | 公司官方微信 | | 1 2、美国总统特朗普宣布将进口钢铁和铝及其衍生制品的关税从 25%提高至 50%，该关税政策自 美国东部时间 2025 年 6 月 4 日凌晨 00 时 01 分起生效。美国从英国进口的钢铝关税仍将维持在 25%。 3、国务院总理李强会见日本国际贸易促进协会会长河野洋平率领的访华团。李强指出，中日双 方要加强产业对接融合，扩大贸易投资规模，拓展数字经济、绿色经济、生物医药等新兴领域 和第三方市场合作，通过实现更高水平的互利共赢，为各自发展增添更多动力，为世界经济增 长作出更大贡献。 4、商务部部长王文涛在法国巴黎出席世贸组织小型部长会议期间，与欧盟委员会贸易和经济安 全委员谢夫乔维奇会谈，双方围绕中欧经贸合作紧迫而重要的议题，进行了专注、坦诚、深入 的讨论，并责成双方工作团队加紧努力工作，为中欧今年重要议程做 ...

中原期货研究所 晨会纪要 2025 第（97）期 发布日期：2025-06-03 | 投资咨询业务资格 | | | --- | --- | | 证监发【2014】217 | 号 | | 中原期货研究所 | 0371-58620081 | | 0371-58620083 | | | 公司官方微信 | | 公司官方微信 1 中原期货研究所 | 化工 | 主力合约 | 2025/6/3 | 2025/5/30 | 涨跌 | 涨跌幅/% | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | | 8:00 | 15:00 | | | | | 焦煤 | 726.00 | 726.00 | 0 | 0 | | | 焦炭 | 1,308.00 | 1,308.00 | 0 | 0 | | | 天然橡胶 | 13,405.00 | 13,405.00 | 0 | 0 | | | 20号胶 | 11,865.00 | 11,865.00 | 0 | 0 | | | 塑料 | 6,960.00 | 6,960.00 | 0 | 0 | | | 聚丙烯PP | 6,875.00 | 6,875.00 ...

中原期货研究所 晨会纪要 2025 第（96）期 发布日期：2025-05-30 | | | | 商品指数每日市场跟踪 | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 宏观指标 | | 2025/5/30 | 2025/5/29 | 涨 跌 | 涨跌幅/% | | | | 08:00 | 15:00 | | | | 道琼斯工业指数 | | 42215.73 | 42098.70 | 117.030 | 0.278 | | 纳斯达克指数 | | 19175.87 | 19100.94 | 74.930 | 0.392 | | 标普500 | | 5912.17 | 5888.55 | 23.620 | 0.401 | | 恒生指数 | | 23573.38 | 23258.31 | 315.070 | 1.355 | | SHIBOR隔夜 | | 1.41 | 1.41 | 0 | 0 | | 美元指数 | | 99.25 | 99.36 | -0.113 | -0.114 | | 美元兑人民币(CFETS) | | 7.19 | 7.19 | 0 | 0 | | 主 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core View of the Report The report presents a comprehensive analysis of the financial market, including macro - economic indicators, commodity prices, and major news events. It also offers trading suggestions for various commodities and financial instruments based on their current market conditions and fundamentals [2][12]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs 3.1 Commodity Index Daily Market Tracking - **Stock Indices**: On May 29, 2025, major global stock indices such as the Dow Jones Industrial Index, NASDAQ Index, S&P 500, and Hang Seng Index all declined, with the Dow Jones Industrial Index dropping 0.578% to 42098.70 [2]. - **Interest Rates and Exchange Rates**: SHIBOR overnight decreased by 2.824% to 1.41, while the US dollar index rose 0.542% to 100.44. The US dollar - to - RMB exchange rate remained unchanged [2]. - **Commodity Futures**: In the international market, COMEX gold rose 0.385% to 3312.40, while LME tin dropped 2.823% to 31495.00. In the domestic market, most commodities showed price fluctuations, with some rising and some falling [2][4]. 3.2 Macro - economic News - **Federal Reserve Policy**: The Fed meeting minutes indicated that policymakers believe the economy faces higher uncertainty and should be cautious about interest - rate cuts, waiting for the impact of Trump's tariff policies to become clearer. Fed official Williams emphasized the importance of keeping inflation expectations stable [6][7]. - **International Trade and Policy**: China will implement a visa - free policy for ordinary passport holders from Saudi Arabia, Oman, Kuwait, and Bahrain from June 9, 2025, to June 8, 2026. The US - China tariff reduction may support the profit growth of relevant export industries in the second quarter, but long - term external demand remains uncertain [7]. - **Industry News**: OPEC+ agreed to maintain the current oil production quota plan and will discuss a potential 411,000 - barrel - per - day increase in July production on May 31. Saudi Arabia's stock market has been hit by falling oil prices, and its budget requires an oil price of $96 per barrel [7][8]. 3.3 Morning Meeting Views on Major Varieties 3.3.1 Agricultural Products - **Peanuts**: Due to factors like the busy farming season, peanut supply is low, and prices are stable with an upward trend. However, traders are not eager to buy at high prices. It is not recommended to chase high prices in the futures market [12]. - **Oils and Fats**: The oils and fats market lacks upward momentum. The weather in the US Midwest is favorable for sown areas, and Australia's oilseed - growing regions are expected to have normal weather conditions. It is advisable to view the market as weakly volatile [12]. - **Sugar**: The sugar futures price is in a weak - oscillating trend. Brazil's improved weather has accelerated sugarcane harvesting, and the domestic market is pressured by increased imports and uncertain consumption. It is recommended to wait for a clear direction [12]. - **Corn**: The corn market shows a pattern of weak supply and demand. The reduction of remaining grain in production areas supports prices, but the substitution effect of wheat and weak demand are concerns. It is recommended to trade within the 2300 - 2350 yuan range [12]. - **Pigs**: The national pig price has stabilized and rebounded. Farmers are reluctant to sell, and with the approaching Dragon Boat Festival, procurement demand has increased. The futures market is waiting for a direction [12]. - **Eggs**: The egg spot price is stable. Although there is short - term support from domestic sales in production areas, the long - term outlook remains weak due to factors such as high - age laying hens and weather conditions [12]. 3.3.2 Energy and Chemicals - **Caustic Soda**: The price of caustic soda in Shandong is expected to remain stable in the short term. The market has digested the expected June device maintenance, and non - aluminum downstream industries are restocking due to rigid demand [13]. - **Urea**: The domestic urea price has slightly increased, but new orders are average. High supply pressure persists, and it is necessary to monitor agricultural demand replenishment and export fulfillment [13]. 3.3.3 Industrial Metals - **Copper and Aluminum**: Overseas tariff risks still exist, and the prices of copper and aluminum continue to oscillate. The inventory of copper has decreased slightly, and the inventory of aluminum has also declined [13][15]. - **Alumina**: Affected by concentrated maintenance and production cuts, the supply of alumina is expected to remain tight. The 2509 contract has rebounded from a low level, and attention should be paid to the 3200 - 3300 yuan/ton pressure range [15]. - **Steel Products**: The trading volume in the steel spot market is weak, and prices are generally down. The total inventory of rebar has slightly increased, while the total inventory of hot - rolled coils has decreased. The black - metal sector is under pressure and is expected to oscillate weakly [14][15]. - **Ferroalloys**: The decline of ferrosilicon and ferromanganese has slowed down. The supply of ferrosilicon decreased last week, and the demand increased. Ferromanganese is affected by overseas ore supply expectations, and the cost center has shifted down [15]. - **Coking Coal and Coke**: The production of coking coal has been restricted, and the second - round price cut of coke has been fully implemented. The market is bearish, and the prices of coking coal and coke are under pressure [17]. - **Lithium Carbonate**: The price of lithium carbonate futures is in a weak - oscillating state. The cost support has shifted down, and demand is structurally differentiated. It is recommended that short - position holders pay attention to the key support level of 59,500 yuan [17]. 3.3.4 Options and Finance - **Stock Index**: On May 28, A - share indices oscillated and adjusted, with more stocks falling than rising. The new consumption field has performed well, but it may face short - term pressure due to high valuations. The overall trend of the Shanghai Composite Index may be oscillating consolidation, and short - term attention should be paid to the gap on May 7 [17][18]. - **Options**: For trend investors, a defensive strategy is recommended. Volatility investors can buy wide - straddle options after the volatility decreases to bet on an increase in volatility [19].

中原期货研究所 晨会纪要 2025 第（94）期 发布日期：2025-05-28 | 投资咨询业务资格 | | | 商品指数每日市场跟踪 | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 证监发【2014】217 号 | 宏观指标 | 2025/5/28 | 2025/5/27 | 涨 跌 | 涨跌幅/% | | | | 08:00 | 15:00 | | | | | 道琼斯工业指数 | 42343.65 | 41603.07 | 740.580 | 1.780 | | 中原期货研究所 | 纳斯达克指数 | 19199.16 | 18737.21 | 461.950 | 2.465 | | | 标普500 | 5921.54 | 5802.82 | 118.720 | 2.046 | | 0371-58620081 | 恒生指数 | 23381.99 | 23282.33 | 99.660 | 0.428 | | 0371-58620083 | SHIBOR隔夜 | 1.45 | 1.51 | -0.054 | -3.586 | | | 美元指数 | 99.53 | ...

中原期货研究所 晨会纪要 2025 第（93）期 发布日期：2025-05-27 | | | | 商品指数每日市场跟踪 | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 宏观指标 | | 2025/5/27 08:00 | 2025/5/26 15:00 | 涨 跌 | 涨跌幅/% | | 道琼斯工业指数 | | 41603.07 | 41859.09 | -256.020 | -0.612 | | 纳斯达克指数 | | 18737.21 | 18925.73 | -188.520 | -0.996 | | 标普500 | | 5802.82 | 5842.01 | -39.190 | -0.671 | | 恒生指数 | | 23282.33 | 23601.26 | -318.930 | -1.351 | | SHIBOR隔夜 | | 1.51 | 1.57 | -0.059 | -3.770 | | 美元指数 | | 98.96 | 98.98 | -0.015 | -0.015 | | 美元兑人民币(CFETS) | | 7.18 | 7.18 | 0 | 0 ...

投资咨询业务资格 证监发【2014】217号 供需环比转弱，钢价承压下行 ——周报20250526 投 资 咨 询 编 号 ：Z0020978 研究所 ：林娜 联 系 方 式 ：0371-58620083 电 子 邮 箱 ：linna_qh@ccnew.com 执 业 证 书 编 号 ：F03099603 | | 本期观点——螺纹钢、热卷 | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 品种 | 主要逻辑 | 策略建议 | 风险点 | | | 供应：全国螺纹周产量226.53万吨（环比+1.34%，同比-3.02%），全国热卷周产 | | | | | 量311.98万吨（环比-2.62%，同比-3.91%）。螺纹钢增产，热卷减产。 | | | | | 消费：螺纹钢表观消费247.13万吨（环比-5.06%，同比-1.11%），热卷表观消费 | | | | | 313.06万吨（环比-4.99%，同比-4.51%）。螺纹钢和热卷需求均呈现回落。 | | | | | 库存：螺纹总库存604.22万吨（环比-2.52%，同比-22.94%），热卷总库存 | | | | | 340.19万吨（环比 ...

中原期货研究所 晨会纪要 2025 第（92）期 发布日期：2025-05-26 | | | | 商品指数每日市场跟踪 | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 宏观指标 | | 2025/5/26 08:00 | 2025/5/23 15:00 | 涨 跌 | 涨跌幅/% | | 道琼斯工业指数 | | 41603.07 | 41859.09 | -256.020 | -0.612 | | 纳斯达克指数 | | 18737.21 | 18925.73 | -188.520 | -0.996 | | 标普500 | | 5802.82 | 5842.01 | -39.190 | -0.671 | | 恒生指数 | | 23601.26 | 23544.31 | 56.950 | 0.242 | | SHIBOR隔夜 | | 1.57 | 1.47 | 0.10 | 6.826 | | 美元指数 | | 99.07 | 99.12 | -0.058 | -0.058 | | 美元兑人民币(CFETS) | | 7.19 | 7.19 | 0 | 0 | | 主力 ...

中原期货研究所 | | | | 商品指数每日市场跟踪 | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 宏观指标 | | 2025/5/22 | 2025/5/21 | 涨 跌 | 涨跌幅/% | | | | 08:00 | 15:00 | | | | 道琼斯工业指数 | 纳斯达克指数 | 41860.44 18872.64 | 42677.24 19142.71 | -816.80 -270.070 | -1.914 -1.411 | | 标普500 | | 5844.61 | 5940.46 | -95.850 | -1.614 | | 恒生指数 | | | | | | | | | 23827.78 | 23681.48 | 146.30 | 0.618 | | SHIBOR隔夜 | | 1.51 | 1.51 | 0 | 0 | | 美元指数 | | 99.64 | 99.60 | 0.038 | 0.038 | | 美元兑人民币(CFETS) | | 7.21 | 7.21 | 0 | 0 | | 主力合约 | | 2025/5/21 | 2025/5/20 ...