Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The egg market shows a clear contradiction of oversupply and low valuation in the current stage. After the seasonal stocking, the weather factor will continue to suppress the market. It is recommended to short after the rebound and continue the JD59 positive spread strategy [3]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs 3.1 Periodic and Spot Market Review - **Egg Futures**: Last week, the futures market showed concerns about the short - term spot price increase. The futures market was stagnant and needed further guidance from the spot market. Although the spot market may still have room to rise, the futures market has started to reflect the post - holiday spot price expectations. It will still take time for the market to break away from the bottom range [6]. - **Egg Spot**: Last week, the spot price was stable with a slight upward trend. Supported by downstream stocking, the spot price rebounded from the bottom and fluctuated in the range of 3.2 - 3.5 yuan per catty. However, after the May Day stocking, the downstream market will return to weakness, and the weather will become the main factor suppressing the spot price [6]. 3.2 Supply Side - **New - added Capacity**: From March to June 2025, the newly - opened production corresponds to the replenishment volume from October 2024 to January 2025, which remains at a high level and is higher than the historical average [10]. - **Eliminated Capacity**: From March to June 2025, the normal eliminated capacity corresponds to the replenishment volume from October 2023 to January 2024, and the available elimination volume is relatively neutral [10]. - **Laying Hen Inventory**: The inventory remains at a high level. The growth rate of normal new - added capacity is relatively stable, and the elimination volume is high, which may lead to a slowdown in phased supply [10]. 3.3 Elimination End - The price of eliminated chickens fluctuates at a high level, the elimination volume slows down significantly, the average elimination age is about 530 days, and the elimination enthusiasm is increasing [13]. 3.4 Market Factors - **Seasonality**: The seasonal strength - weakness conversion occurs, and the restocking demand is still the main support for the current market [15]. - **Production Area**: The inventory in the production area is not high, and purchases are made on demand. The future weather in the south is not conducive to storage, and quality issues will affect egg prices [15]. - **Consumption End**: After holiday stocking, the inventory has been transferred to the downstream [15]. - **Substitute Products**: Vegetable prices are weak, and the supply has recovered, so the support for egg prices has weakened; pork prices continue to decline, and the substitution effect on eggs is not obvious; other meat prices have strengthened in the short term [17]. 3.5 Cost and Profit - **Raw Material End**: Corn and soybean meal prices have rebounded from the low level. Corn is supported by policy - based purchases, and soybean meal remains stable with a slight upward trend due to short - term spot shortages [22]. - **Cost End**: The cost continues to rise. Currently, the feed cost is about 2.6 yuan per catty, and the comprehensive breeding cost is about 2.9 yuan per catty [22]. - **Breeding Profit**: The breeding profit has rebounded, but it has not yet emerged from the seasonal low [22]. 3.6 Capital and Market Indicators - **Capital Flow**: After the rebound this week, funds left the market and then re - entered. The short - selling main funds exerted force again [25]. - **Basis**: The basis has fallen from a high level. The spot price has dropped significantly after the holiday, but the basis has stabilized and strengthened later, which is expected to provide some support for the market [27]. - **Spread**: With the rebound of the spot price, the near - term contracts are supported, and the spread has strengthened. In the future, the positive spread strategy will be the main approach [30].

投资咨询业务资格 证监发【2014】217号 钢招量下降，双硅弱势震荡 ——铁合金周报20250421 研究所 ：林娜 联 系 方 式 ：0371-58630083 电 子 邮 箱 ：linna_qh@ccnew.com 执 业证书 编 号 ：F03099603 投资咨询 编 号 ：Z0020978 01 硅铁 本期观点 • 136家独立硅铁企业周产量10.03万吨（环比-2.72%，同比+9.02%） • 2025年3月硅铁产量50.27万吨（环比+3.85%，同比+18.02%） 需求：成材周产量微增 1 1.5 2 2.5 3 3.5 1-1 1-13 1-25 2-6 2-18 3-2 3-14 3-26 4-7 4-19 5-1 5-13 5-25 6-6 6-18 6-30 7-12 7-24 8-5 8-17 8-29 9-10 9-22 10-4 10-16 10-28 11-9 11-21 12-3 12-15 12-27 硅铁周消费量：万吨 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 700 750 800 850 900 950 1000 1050 1100 1150 1-1 1- ...

投资咨询业务资格 证监发【2014】217号 纯碱玻璃周报——2025.04.21 中原期货研究所：化工组 | 作者：刘培洋 | 研究助理：申文 | | --- | --- | | 执业证书编号：F0290318 | 执业证书编号： F03117458 | | 投资咨询编号：Z0011155 | 0371-58620081 | | liupy_qh@ccnew.com | shenwen_qh@ccnew.com | 01 周度观点汇总 3 2.1 行情回顾-现货价格 1000 1500 2000 2500 3000 3500 4000 4500 重碱市场价（元/吨） 华北 华东 华南 华中 西南 400 600 800 重碱与轻碱价差（元/吨） -400 -200 0 200 华北地区 华中地区 1.1 纯碱周度观点——供增需稳格局延续 品种 主要逻辑 策略建议 风险提示 纯碱 1.供应 装置开工率89.50%（+1.45%），氨碱法87.85%（环比+0.53%），联碱法86.15%（+1.02%)；周 产量75.56万吨（+1.78万吨），轻碱产量33.91万吨（+0.53万吨），重碱产量41.65万吨 ...

成交量持续萎缩 逢高减仓滚动操作 ——股指周报2025.04.21 客服中心 ：李卫红 联系方式：0371-68599157 电子邮箱：liwh_qh@ccnew.com 投资咨询业务资格 证监发【2014】217号 投资咨询编号：Z0017812 | 本期观点 | | --- | | 品种 | 主要逻辑 | 策略建议 | 风险提示 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | 1、来自第一财经消息，随着近期"国家队"等多路资金的持续加仓，ETF市场总规模站上 作透明、交易便捷等特征，ETF也受到各类投资者青睐。 中证500周跌0.37%，中证1000周跌0.52%。成交方面，四大指数日均交易量交易前一周 | | | | | 了4万亿元关口。据Wind数据统计，截至4月20日，全市场ETF最新规模达到40116.17亿 | | | | | 元。其中，股票ETF是规模增长的主力军。与此同时，4月以来，场内ETF基金的资金净 | | | | | 流入额超过3200亿元。其中，沪深300ETF、中证500ETF、中证1000ETF等宽基产品最 | 操作上，市场量 | | | | 受青睐。在业内人士 ...

投资咨询业务资格 证监发【2014】217号 【中原化工】 供应维持高位运行，需求支撑阶段性转弱 ——尿素周报2025.04.21 中原期货研究所：化工组 作者：刘培洋 研究助理：申文 执业证书编号：F0290318 执业证书编号： F03117458 投资咨询编号：Z0011155 0371-58620083 0371-58620081 liupy_qh@ccnew.com shenwen_qh@ccnew.com 01 周度观点汇总 1.1 尿素周度观点——供应维持高位运行，需求支撑阶段性转弱 | 品种 | 主要逻辑 | 策略建议 | 风险提示 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 1. 供应：部分装置计划检修，供应存阶段性减量预期； | | | | | | 2. 需求：下游需求支撑边际转弱； | | | | | 3. 库存：上游尿素企业库存持续累积； | | | | | 4. 成本与利润：煤炭价格弱稳运行，尿素利润环比下降； | | | | | 5. 基差与价差：5-9价差偏弱震荡，05基差走强。 | | 保供稳价政策、 | | 6. 整体逻辑： | | UR2509合约关 | 新 ...

投资咨询业务资格 证监发【2014】217号 政策预期回升，黑色系低位形成支撑 ——周报20250421 投 资 咨 询 编 号 ：Z0020978 研究所 ：林娜 联 系 方 式 ：0371-58620083 电 子 邮 箱 ：linna_qh@ccnew.com 执 业 证 书 编 号 ：F03099603 | 本期观点——螺纹钢、热卷 | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 品种 | 主要逻辑 | 策略建议 | 风险点 | | | 供应：全国螺纹周产量229.22万吨（环比-1.36%，同比+3.23%），全国热卷周产 | | | | | 量314.4万吨（环比+0.35%，同比-2.71%）。螺纹钢产量下降，热卷产量微增。 | | | | | 消费：螺纹表观消费273.82万吨（环比+8.37%，同比-4.92%），热卷表观消费 | | | | | 324.16万吨（环比+2.80%，同比-0.40%）。螺纹钢表需回升明显，热卷需求小幅 | | | | | 增加。 | 单边： | | | | 库存：螺纹总库存733.16万吨（环比-5.73%，同比-27.75%），热卷 ...

2025 第（70）期 发布日期：2025-04-21 | | | | 商品指数每日市场跟踪 | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 宏观指标 | | 2025/4/21 | 2025/4/18 | 涨 跌 | 涨跌幅/% | | | | 08:00 | 15:00 | | | | 道琼斯工业指数 | | 39142.23 | 39669.39 | -527.160 | -1.329 | | 纳斯达克指数 | | 16286.45 | 16307.16 | -20.710 | -0.127 | | 标普500 | | 5282.70 | 5275.70 | 7.0 | 0.133 | | 恒生指数 | | 21395.14 | 21056.98 | 338.160 | 1.606 | | SHIBOR隔夜 | | 1.66 | 1.63 | 0.026 | 1.591 | | 美元指数 | | 98.82 | 99.23 | -0.413 | -0.416 | | 美元兑人民币(CFETS) | | 7.30 | 7.30 | 0 | 0 | | 主力合约 ...

联系方式：0371-58620083 投资咨询业务资格 证监发【2014】217号 情绪有所缓和，铜铝陷入整理 ——铜铝周报2025.04.21 作者： 刘培洋 电子邮箱：liupy_qh@ccnew.com 执业证书编号：F0290318 投资咨询编号：Z0011155 本期观点 | 品种 | 主要逻辑 | 策略建议 | 风险提示 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | 1、宏观面：国内一季度经济数据较好，美国关税政策影响仍有不确 | 沪铜2506合约 | | | | 定性。 | 上方参考压力 | 1、国内外宏 | | | 2、基本面：当前国内铜精矿加工费仍然处于负值，铜价高位回落后， | 位78500元/吨 | 观政策及经 | | 铜 | 终端消费有所恢复，社会库存延续性去库；截至4月17日，全国主流 | 一线，下方参 | 济数据变化； | | | 地区铜库存降至23.34万吨，连续七周去库。 | 考支撑位 | 2、国外铜矿 | | | 3、整体逻辑：欧盟和日本与美国的关税最新进展牵动市场，市场情 | 73000元/吨一 | 供应因素。 | | | 绪有所缓和，铜价或延续低位反弹。 ...

投资咨询业务资格 证监发【2014】217号 价格低位整理，关注下方支撑 ——烧碱周报2025.04.21 执业证书编号：F0290318 作者： 刘培洋 联系方式：0371-58620083 电子邮箱：liupy_qh@ccnew.com 投资咨询编号：Z0011155 本期观点 | 品种 | 主要逻辑 | 策略建议 | 风险提示 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | 1、宏观：国内一季度经济数据较好，美国关税政策影响仍有不确定 | | | | | 性。 | 烧碱2509合约 | 1、国内外宏 | | | 2、供需面：华东市场供需端相对平稳，且本周临近月度签单，受山 | | 观政策及经 | | | 东区域液碱价格上行驱动支撑，预估本周华东液碱行情趋稳整理， | 上方参考压力 | 济数据变化； | | 烧碱 | 伴随非铝下游逐渐补货，低价逐渐取消，需求增加，预计烧碱价格 | 位2600元/吨 | 2、企业装置 | | | 存在上调可能性。 | 一线，下方支 | 检修情况； | | | 3、整体逻辑：近期山东现货价格回升带动近月合约出现一定反弹， | 撑位2400元/ | 3、下游需求 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The report presents the daily market tracking data of commodity indices, including macro - indicators, international and domestic futures contracts of various commodities, and provides morning meeting views on major varieties in different sectors such as agriculture, energy - chemical, industrial metals, and option - finance [2][4][12]. - In the macro - economic aspect, China's first - quarter financial and real - estate GDP showed growth, and various policies were introduced, including promoting Sino - Cambodian cooperation, attracting foreign investment, and supporting the construction of the modern commercial circulation system [7][8]. - In the market operation, different sectors have different trends. For example, the A - share market has mixed performance, and the futures market of various commodities has different price fluctuations and trading suggestions [21][12]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Commodity Index Daily Market Tracking - **Macro - indicators**: On April 18, 2025, the Dow Jones Industrial Index decreased by 1.329%, the Nasdaq Index decreased by 0.127%, the S&P 500 increased by 0.133%, the Hang Seng Index increased by 1.606%, SHIBOR overnight decreased by 4.333%, the US dollar index decreased by 0.054%, and the US dollar against the RMB (CFETS) remained unchanged [2]. - **International Futures Contracts**: COMEX gold decreased by 0.488%, COMEX silver decreased by 0.656%, LME copper increased by 0.549%, etc. [2]. - **Domestic Futures Contracts**: In the metal sector, gold decreased by 0.261%, silver decreased by 0.086%, etc.; in the chemical sector, coking coal decreased by 0.947%, coke decreased by 0.292%, etc.; in the agricultural product sector, yellow soybean No.1 decreased by 0.888%, yellow soybean No.2 increased by 0.145%, etc. [2][4]. 3.2 Macro - economic News - China and Cambodia agreed to build a new - era all - weather community with a shared future and announced 2025 as the "China - Cambodia Tourism Year" [7]. - China welcomes more US companies to invest in the Chinese market, and the Chinese Ministry of Commerce is open to economic and trade consultations with the US and willing to cooperate with the EU to maintain the multilateral trading system [7][8]. - The Chinese government carried out various works, such as the application for pilot cities of the modern commercial circulation system, promoting the high - quality development of the private economy, and energy - saving and carbon - reduction diagnosis services in high - energy - consuming industries [8][9]. - China's first - quarter financial GDP increased by 3.8% year - on - year, and real - estate GDP increased by 1% year - on - year. In March, the unemployment rates of different age groups were announced [8]. 3.3 Morning Meeting Views on Major Varieties 3.3.1 Agricultural Products - **Peanuts**: The spot market is stable with increased supply. In the delivery game stage, focus on delivery costs and receiving willingness, and consider long - short spreads and rebound short - selling [12]. - **Oils and Fats**: Malaysian palm oil exports increased by 16.95% from April 1 - 15 compared to the same period last month, and Brazil's April soybean export forecast was raised. The market is lightly traded, and palm oil imports are still at a loss. Suggest buying on dips [12]. - **Sugar**: On April 17, the sugar futures price increased by 1.04%. India's sugar production decreased by 18.4%. After breaking through the key resistance level, beware of the risk of Brazil's increased production. Consider light - position long - buying if it stabilizes above 5900 yuan/ton [12]. - **Corn**: On April 17, the corn futures price slightly decreased. Port inventories are at a historical high, but state - owned grain reserves' purchases and expected import decline support the market. Consider short - selling on rebounds, but beware of policy - supported rebounds [12]. - **Pigs**: The national pig price is stable. Supply is abundant, demand is weak, and the futures market is in a multi - empty game. It is recommended to wait and see [12]. - **Eggs**: The spot price is stable with a slight increase. Supply pressure exists, and the futures price rebounds but has limited upside. Consider short - selling on rebounds [12][13]. 3.3.2 Energy - Chemical - **Caustic Soda**: The inventory of caustic soda decreased significantly. The 2505 contract continued to rebound from a low level, and the 2509 contract awaited new market drivers [15]. - **Urea**: The domestic urea price continued to decline slightly. Supply remained high, demand support weakened, and the short - term market might continue to fluctuate weakly [15]. 3.3.3 Industrial Metals - **Copper and Aluminum**: The prices of copper and aluminum continued to consolidate. Copper inventories decreased for seven consecutive weeks, and aluminum rod inventories decreased. Pay attention to policy changes [17][18]. - **Alumina**: The supply - demand fundamentals of alumina remained in surplus, and a bearish view was maintained in the medium - term [18]. - **Rebar and Hot - Rolled Coil**: The prices of rebar and hot - rolled coil decreased at night. The market had no significant inventory pressure, and prices were expected to fluctuate at low levels. Pay attention to export orders from April to May [18]. - **Ferroalloys**: Manganese ore prices continued to decline, and the supply - demand of ferrosilicon and ferromanganese was loose. They continued to fluctuate weakly [18]. - **Coking Coal and Coke**: The coking coal market was weak, and the coke market was stable after a price increase. They were expected to fluctuate weakly in the short - term [18]. - **Lithium Carbonate**: The futures price of lithium carbonate continued to fluctuate weakly. Supply and demand both increased, but inventory pressure intensified. A rebound short - selling strategy was recommended [19]. 3.3.4 Option - Finance - **A - shares**: On April 17, the three major A - share indices had mixed performance. The real - estate and consumer sectors were active. The market was affected by US tariff policies, and it was recommended to reduce positions on rallies and use arbitrage strategies [21][22][23]. - **Options and Futures**: On April 17, the trading volume and implied volatility of various stock index futures and options had different changes. Trend investors were advised to defend, and volatility investors could consider buying straddles [23].