1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The Central Economic Work Conference emphasized continuing proactive fiscal and moderately loose monetary policies, with 8 key tasks proposed, including stabilizing the real - estate market and resolving local government debt risks [6]. - The World Bank raised its forecast for China's economic growth rate in 2025 to 4.9%, attributing it to the government's policies and diversified export markets [7]. - The storage chip industry is facing a supply - demand imbalance, with DRAM supply shortages expected to last until Q1 2027 [8]. - In 2026, more real - estate policies are expected to boost demand, but the market is still expected to decline slightly and remain divided [8]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Chemical Industry - On December 12, 2025, among chemical products, coke, natural rubber, 20 - numbered rubber, and ethylene glycol saw price increases, while others like coking coal, plastic, and PTA decreased [4]. 3.2 Macroeconomic News - The Central Economic Work Conference laid out the economic work for next year, focusing on fiscal and monetary policies, consumption, investment, and various industries [6]. - Mexico will impose tariffs on some products from China and other Asian countries starting next year, and China has launched a trade - investment barrier investigation [6]. - Regarding the EU's anti - subsidy case on Chinese electric vehicles, China welcomes price - commitment consultations but opposes parallel individual consultations [7]. - The World Bank raised China's 2025 economic growth forecast to 4.9% [7]. - The Ministry of Commerce will introduce measures to promote the innovation and development of the retail industry [7]. - In November, China's auto production and sales increased, with new - energy vehicles showing significant growth [7]. - The real - estate market is expected to see more policies in 2026, with a projected 6.2% decline in new - home sales [8]. - The storage chip industry is facing a supply - demand imbalance [8]. 3.3 Morning Meeting Views on Major Varieties 3.3.1 Agricultural Products - Peanut futures are likely to remain weak in the short term due to a weak supply - demand situation [10]. - Sugar prices are expected to be weak due to sufficient supply and low demand [10]. - Corn futures may oscillate in a range, restricted by weak spot prices and supply pressure [10]. - The pig futures market shows a contradiction between weak reality and improved expectations, and it's advisable to wait and see [10]. - Egg prices are expected to oscillate, with a suggestion to hold inter - month reverse spreads [10][12]. - Cotton prices are likely to oscillate, affected by both supply and demand factors [12]. 3.3.2 Energy and Chemicals - Urea futures may continue to oscillate weakly, with attention on support levels and downstream demand [12]. - Caustic soda futures should be treated with a bearish view due to a weak supply - demand pattern [12]. - Coking coal and coke are under pressure and are expected to decline [13]. - Log futures should be treated with a bearish view after breaking through the support level [13]. - Pulp futures may remain strong in the short term, but beware of demand - side risks [13]. - Double - offset paper futures can be considered for light - position long positions near the support level [13]. 3.3.3 Industrial Metals - Copper and aluminum prices are volatile at high levels, and attention should be paid to macro - risks [15]. - Alumina is in an oversupply situation, and attention should be paid to enterprise production cuts [15]. - Rebar and hot - rolled coil prices are expected to decline weakly in the short term, with attention on support levels [15]. - Ferroalloys' prices follow the weak trend of the black - series, with a wait - and - see attitude for new drivers [15][16]. - Lithium carbonate futures have broken through resistance, but beware of high - level corrections [16]. 3.3.4 Options and Finance - On December 11, A - share indices declined, and investors are advised to focus on inter - variety arbitrage and volatility strategies [16]. - The market is waiting for information from the Central Economic Work Conference to find investment opportunities for next year [17]. - In the short term, the market is expected to oscillate, and further upward momentum may be gathered after consolidation [18].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Views of the Report - The Fed cut the federal funds rate target range by 25 basis points to 3.50%–3.75% for the third time this year, with a plan to start purchasing about $40 billion of short - term Treasuries per month from December 12. The dot - plot predicts one 25 - basis - point cut in 2026 and 2027 respectively [7]. - China's economy shows significant resilience, with the IMF raising its growth forecasts for China in 2025 and 2026 to 5.0% and 4.5% respectively [9]. - China's AI has entered an application explosion period, with the number of AI applications reaching 657 by October, a year - on - year increase of 61.8%, and the mobile user scale exceeding 700 million [9]. - For the stock market, the future market index needs to transition from a liquidity - driven bull market to a fundamental - driven one, and before that, consolidation is the main theme [24]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Chemicals - On December 11, 2025, among domestic chemical products, paper pulp had the largest increase of 2.796%, while fuel oil had the largest decrease of 1.030% compared to December 10 [4]. 3.2 Agricultural Products - On December 11, 2025, among domestic agricultural products, rapeseed oil had the largest increase of 1.356%, while white sugar had the largest decrease of 1.877% compared to December 10 [4]. 3.3 Main Variety Morning Meeting Views 3.3.1 Agricultural Products - Peanuts: The market lacks strong drivers, and the price is expected to oscillate in the short term, with pressure around 8120 yuan and support around 8050 yuan [11]. - Sugar: Under the pressure of internal and external supply, the sugar price is expected to maintain a weak oscillation pattern, with support around 5300 yuan/ton [11]. - Corn: The price may continue to oscillate and adjust in the short term, with support around 2220 yuan and pressure around 2250 yuan [11]. - Pigs: The futures market shows a contradiction between weak reality and improved expectations. It is recommended to do long with a small number of warehouse receipts and conduct reverse spreads on the inter - month spread [11]. - Eggs: The market is expected to oscillate strongly, with short positions partially closing for profit and inter - month reverse spreads continuing to be held [12]. - Cotton: The current market lacks a clear driver, and the price is expected to oscillate in the short term. It is recommended to wait and see, with pressure at 13800 yuan and support around 13700 yuan [12]. 3.3.2 Energy and Chemicals - Urea: The futures price may continue to oscillate weakly, and it is necessary to pay attention to changes in off - season storage and export quotas [12]. - Caustic Soda: The supply - demand pattern is weak, and the 2601 contract continues to operate weakly, with a short - selling mindset [12]. - Coking Coal and Coke: The prices of coking coal and coke are expected to oscillate weakly at a low level in the short term [13]. - Logs: It is recommended to adopt a short - selling mindset, with support at the intraday low of 747 yuan and pressure at 768 yuan [13]. - Pulp: In the medium term, it may maintain an oscillating pattern, with support around 5350 yuan/ton and pressure at 5600 yuan/ton [13]. - Offset Printing Paper: It is expected to maintain an oscillating pattern in the short term, and interval trading can be considered with support at 4000 points and pressure around 4100 points [13]. 3.3.3 Industrial Metals - Copper and Aluminum: After the Fed's interest rate cut, copper and aluminum prices fluctuate sharply at high levels, and macro risks should be noted [17]. - Alumina: The fundamental situation is in surplus. If the price further drops, pay attention to enterprise production cuts, and the 2601 contract operates at a low level [18]. - Rebar and Hot - Rolled Coil: Steel prices are expected to oscillate in a low - level range in the short term, with rebar at 3050 - 3200 yuan and hot - rolled coil at 3200 - 3350 yuan [19]. - Ferroalloys: The fundamentals of ferrosilicon and ferromanganese are not strongly driven, and prices fluctuate weakly following the black series [20]. - Lithium Carbonate: It is recommended to wait and see, and beware of price corrections due to insufficient demand or increased supply [21]. 3.3.4 Options and Finance - Stock Index Options: Trend investors can pay attention to arbitrage opportunities between varieties, and volatility investors can buy straddles to bet on increased volatility [23]. - Stock Index: The market is in a period of waiting for a new main line. The Central Economic Work Conference may be a key policy window for the "cross - year market". The spring market may require the resonance of multiple factors [24].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The meeting of the Political Bureau of the CPC Central Committee emphasized that in 2026, economic work should adhere to the principle of making progress while maintaining stability and improving quality and efficiency, and continue to implement a more proactive fiscal policy and a moderately loose monetary policy [7]. - In the first 11 months of 2025, China's total value of goods trade imports and exports was 41.21 trillion yuan, a year - on - year increase of 3.6%. Exports were 24.46 trillion yuan, up 6.2%, and imports were 1.675 trillion yuan, up 0.2% [7]. - Many experts expect that China will continue to implement an expansionary fiscal policy in 2026, with the fiscal deficit ratio not lower than 4% in 2025, and continue to moderately increase the issuance of ultra - long - term special treasury bonds and local government special bonds, etc., making the new government debt scale in 2026 exceed about 12 trillion yuan in 2025, possibly between 13 trillion and 16 trillion yuan [8]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Chemical Industry - On December 9, 2025, most chemical futures contracts showed a downward trend. For example, the price of crude oil futures dropped by 2.098% to 448 yuan/ton, and the price of glass futures dropped by 2.096% to 981 yuan/ton. Only a few contracts such as 20 - number rubber, paper pulp, and LPG showed an upward trend [4]. 3.2 Macro - economic News - The Political Bureau of the CPC Central Committee analyzed and studied the economic work in 2026, emphasizing multiple aspects such as expanding domestic demand, innovation - driven development, and risk prevention [7]. - China's foreign trade maintained growth in the first 11 months of 2025, with exports growing faster than imports [7]. - The national tax department organized tax and fee revenues of more than 29 trillion yuan from January to November this year, and investigated and recovered 1.523 billion yuan in taxes from 1,818 "high - income and high - net - worth" individuals [8]. - Domestic refined oil prices had a "two - consecutive decline", with the retail price limits of gasoline and diesel per ton reduced by 55 yuan starting from 24:00 on December 8 [9]. 3.3 Morning Meeting Views on Major Varieties 3.3.1 Agricultural Products - Peanut futures: On December 8, the price dropped by 0.67% to 8,018 yuan/ton. The market is in a situation of weak supply and demand, and the short - term may continue to be weakly volatile [13]. - Sugar futures: On December 8, the price rose slightly by 0.34% to 5,337 yuan/ton. The supply pressure is high, and the short - term may turn to a shock, with limited upside space [13]. - Corn futures: On December 8, the price dropped by 1.57% to 2,261 yuan/ton. The supply is tight in the short - term, and the demand is stable. It is recommended to be cautious about chasing up the price [13]. - Cotton futures: On December 8, the price was flat at 13,750 yuan/ton. The supply is abundant, and the demand is marginally improved. The short - term is expected to be range - bound [15]. 3.3.2 Energy and Chemicals - Urea: The domestic market price is weakly running. The supply is expected to be reduced, and the demand is improving. The futures price may have a phased callback risk [15]. - Caustic soda: The supply - demand pattern is weak. The Shandong region is expected to be stable, and the East China region continues to be weakly running [15]. - Coking coal and coke: The supply and demand are both weak, and the short - term is under pressure and weakening [17]. 3.3.3 Industrial Metals - Copper and aluminum: The market has a high expectation of the Fed's interest rate cut, and copper and aluminum are running at a high level. Pay attention to macro risks [19]. - Alumina: The fundamental situation is in an oversupply pattern, and the contract is running at a low level [19]. - Rebar and hot - rolled coil: The inventory contradiction is not significant, but it is temporarily dragged down by raw materials and is expected to have limited downward space [19]. 3.3.4 Option Finance - Stock index futures: On December 8, the three major indexes opened high and went high, and the trading volume increased. The spring market consensus is gathering. It is recommended to balance the allocation of relevant indexes [20].

Report Industry Investment Rating There is no information provided in the report regarding the industry investment rating. Core View of the Report The report indicates that the five major steel products continue to reduce inventory. The fundamentals of rebar are improving, while the inventory reduction of hot-rolled coils has slowed down. At the end of the week, the raw material side faced downward pressure, slightly dragging down the finished products. Although steel prices are currently under pressure from raw materials and are expected to weaken in the short term, the overall decline is limited. Iron ore and coking coal are also under pressure and are expected to continue their weak performance [3][4][5]. Summary by Directory 01 Market Review Last week, the five major steel products continued to reduce inventory. The fundamentals of rebar continued to improve, and the inventory reduction of hot-rolled coils slowed down. The overall contradiction in finished products was limited. At the end of the week, the raw material side declined under pressure, slightly dragging down the finished products. The weekly steel prices still showed a relatively strong overall trend [9]. 02 Steel Supply and Demand Analysis - **Production**: Rebar production decreased significantly, with both blast furnace and electric furnace production decreasing. The national rebar weekly output was 189.31 tons (down 8.14% week-on-week and 14.91% year-on-year). The national hot-rolled coil weekly output was 314.31 tons (down 1.47% week-on-week and 0.85% year-on-year). The blast furnace and electric furnace operating rates both decreased month-on-month [15][21][26]. - **Profit**: The profits of rebar and hot-rolled coils increased week-on-week. The rebar profit was +34 yuan/ton (up 46 yuan/ton week-on-week and down 1 yuan/ton year-on-year), and the hot-rolled coil profit was -22 yuan/ton (up 25 yuan/ton week-on-week and down 49 yuan/ton year-on-year) [30]. - **Demand**: The demand for rebar and hot-rolled coils both showed a slight decline. The apparent consumption of rebar was 216.98 tons (down 4.81% week-on-week and 8.70% year-on-year), and the apparent consumption of hot-rolled coils was 314.86 tons (down 1.67% week-on-week and 0.70% year-on-year) [35]. - **Inventory**: The inventory of rebar decreased at an accelerated pace, with both factory and social inventories showing a decline. The inventory reduction of hot-rolled coils slowed down, with a slight decrease in social inventory and a slight increase in factory inventory [39][44]. - **Downstream Industries**: In the real estate sector, both commercial housing sales and the land market showed a month-on-month decline. In the automotive sector, production and sales in October continued to increase both month-on-month and year-on-year [48][51]. 03 Iron Ore Supply and Demand Analysis - **Supply**: The iron ore shipments from Australia and Brazil decreased slightly, and the arrival volume continued to decline month-on-month. The iron ore price index was 107.04 (up 0.77% week-on-week and 0.71% year-on-year), the shipments from Australia and Brazil were 2655.3 tons (down 4% week-on-week and up 4.7% year-on-year), and the arrival volume at 45 ports was 2480.5 tons (down 8.11% week-on-week and 1.46% year-on-year) [59]. - **Demand**: The daily output of hot metal continued to decline, and the port clearance volume decreased. The daily output of hot metal was 232.3 tons (down 2.38 tons week-on-week and 0.31 tons year-on-year), and the port clearance volume at 45 ports was 318.45 tons (down 3.67% week-on-week and 1.52% year-on-year) [64]. - **Inventory**: The iron ore port inventory continued to increase, and the steel enterprises' iron ore inventory also increased. The inventory at 45 ports was 15300.81 tons (up 0.60% week-on-week and 1.22% year-on-year), and the imported iron ore inventory of 247 steel enterprises was 8984.73 tons (up 0.47% week-on-week and down 4.13% year-on-year) [70]. 04 Coking Coal and Coke Supply and Demand Analysis - **Supply**: The operating rate of domestic coking coal mines decreased slightly month-on-month, but the Mongolian coal customs clearance remained at a relatively high level. The operating rate of coking coal mines was 85.59% (down 0.48% week-on-week and 6.14% year-on-year), and the daily average of Mongolian coal customs clearance was 19.08 tons (down 3.75% week-on-week and up 139% year-on-year) [76]. - **Coking Enterprises**: The profit of coking enterprises decreased slightly, and the capacity utilization rate increased slightly. The profit per ton of coke in independent coking plants was +30 yuan/ton (down 16 yuan/ton week-on-week and up 21 yuan/ton year-on-year), and the capacity utilization rate was 72.64% (up 0.86% week-on-week and down 1.48% year-on-year) [84]. - **Coking Coal Inventory**: The port inventory increased slightly month-on-month, and the coking plant inventory decreased slightly. The coking coal inventory in independent coking plants was 857.26 tons (down 0.43% week-on-week and up 4.26% year-on-year), and the port inventory of coking coal was 296.5 tons (up 0.68% week-on-week and down 34.68% year-on-year) [90]. - **Coke Inventory**: The port inventory continued to decline, and the coking plant inventory decreased simultaneously. The coke inventory in independent coking plants was 44.69 tons (down 1.15% week-on-week and 0.47% year-on-year), and the port inventory of coke was 181.3 tons (down 3.26% week-on-week and up 7.79% year-on-year) [96]. - **Spot Price**: The first round of coke price cuts was implemented, and the game between steel and coking enterprises continued. The price of low-sulfur coking coal in Shanxi was 1500 yuan/ton (down 80 yuan/ton week-on-week and 60 yuan/ton year-on-year), and the ex-factory price of quasi-primary metallurgical coke in Handan was 1490 yuan/ton (down 50 yuan/ton week-on-week and 170 yuan/ton year-on-year) [102]. 05 Spread Analysis The basis of rebar and hot-rolled coils continued to shrink, and the 1-5 spread of hot-rolled coils also shrank. The coil-to-rebar spread continued to shrink, and the 1-5 spread of iron ore shrank slightly [104][108].

沪指上升三部曲 期待突破机会 ——股指周报2025.12.08 本期观点 | 品种 | 主要逻辑 | 策略建议 | 风险提示 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 股指 | 1、经统计，2025年1-11月，沪市上市公司新增披露增持计划（含一次性增持）210家次， 责任，着力增强价值发现培育能力、财富管理服务能力、跨境金融综合服务能力，积极 是差异化特色化发展要做到新突破。要巩固深化头部机构引领、中小机构特色发展的行 业格局，发挥好比较优势，从价格竞争加快转向价值竞争。用好并购重组机制和工具， 实现优势互补、高效配置。四是加强合规管理和风险防控要取得新成效。要进一步提升 | 操作上，期指对 应四大现货指数 均已回补之前的 缺口，从权重股 搭台题材股唱戏 21日的缺口回补 时间窗口基本成 熟，沪指60日均 线虽没有站稳， 市场短线量能放 | | | | 计划增持金额上限649.84亿元，较去年同期数518.10亿元增长25.43%。其中，沪主板新 | | | | | 增披露增持计划177家次，计划增持金额上限628亿元，较去年同期493亿元增长27%。 | | | | | （人民财讯）。 ...

纯碱玻璃周报——2025.12.08 中原期货研究咨询部 作者：申文 执业证书编号：F03117458 投资咨询编号：Z0022654 shenwen_qh@ccnew.com 0371-58620081 01 周度观点汇总 3 1.1 纯碱周度观点——供增需减预期仍存 品种 主要逻辑 策略建议 风险提示 纯碱 1.供应 装置开工率80.74%（环比+0.66%），氨碱法90.85%（环比+2.45%），联碱法70.95%（+2.89%)； 周产量70.39万吨（环比+0.58万吨），轻碱产量32.24万吨（+0.73万吨），重碱产量38.15万吨 （-0.15万吨）。 2.需求 纯碱表需75.27万吨（-0.24万吨），轻碱表需33.53万吨（+0.38万吨），重碱表需41.75万吨 （-0.61万吨）。 3.库存 纯碱企业库存153.86万吨（-3.13万吨），轻碱库存72.78万吨（-0.67万吨），重碱库存 81.08万吨（-2.46万吨）。 4.核心逻辑 本周纯碱现货价格持稳运行，随着前期检修装置的陆续恢复，预计纯碱供应压力将有所提升， 后续需关注新增产能装置投产带来的供应增量情况。需求端，浮法及光 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - This week, the domestic urea spot market price changed from strong to weak. The supply of urea decreased periodically, with the daily output expected to fluctuate around 19 - 200,000 tons. The demand side saw a steady increase in the operating rate of compound fertilizer, and the inventory of urea enterprises continued to decline. In the short term, the follow - up of downstream replenishment slowed down after the price increase, and the cost support weakened due to the decline in coal prices. The futures price may have a periodic correction risk. For the UR2601 contract, attention should be paid to the support level around 1600 - 1630 yuan/ton. Subsequently, attention should be paid to the sustainability of demand follow - up and export conditions [5]. 3. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Week - to - Week Viewpoint Summary - **Supply**: Supply decreased periodically, with a weekly urea output of 1.3851 million tons (-2.25%), including 1.1362 million tons of coal - based urea and 0.2489 million tons of gas - based urea, and an average daily output of 198,000 tons. Several gas - head urea enterprises' devices are planned to stop production [5][21]. - **Demand**: The operating rate of compound fertilizer enterprises was 40.53% (a week - on - week increase of 3.47%), and the finished product inventory was 683,900 tons (a week - on - week increase of 20,100 tons). The operating rate of melamine was 61.66% (a week - on - week increase of 0.86%) [34]. - **Inventory**: Urea enterprise inventory was 1.2905 million tons, a week - on - week decrease of 73,400 tons. Port inventory was 105,000 tons (a week - on - week increase of 5,000 tons). The mainstream pre - collection days of urea enterprises were 7.35 days (a week - on - week increase of 0.7 days) [31]. - **Cost and Profit**: This week, the sentiment in the coal market weakened, and the profit of urea increased compared with the previous week [5]. - **Basis and Spread**: The 1 - 5 spread was strongly running, and the 01 basis strengthened slightly [5]. 3.2 Variety Details Decomposition - **Domestic Urea Market Price**: The domestic urea market price was strongly running this week, and charts of market prices in Shandong, Shanxi, Henan, Hebei, Anhui, and Northeast China from 2021 to 2025 were provided [7][8]. - **International Urea Market Price**: The international urea market price decreased, and charts of international urea prices (CFR Brazil, FOB Baltic, FOB Iran, FOB China) from 2019 to 2025 were provided [11][12]. - **Supply**: Supply decreased periodically. The weekly urea output decreased by 2.25%, and several gas - head urea enterprises' devices were planned to stop production, such as Sichuan Lutianhua Co., Ltd., Chongqing Jianfeng Chemical Co., Ltd., etc. [17][21]. - **Inventory**: Upstream urea enterprise inventory decreased continuously on a week - on - week basis. Port inventory increased slightly, and the number of days of enterprises' pending orders increased slightly [27][31]. - **Demand**: The operating rate of compound fertilizer increased steadily, and the finished product inventory accumulated slightly. The operating rate of melamine increased slightly [33][34]. - **Raw Material End**: This week, the sentiment in the coal market weakened, and charts of prices of various types of coal from 2021 to 2025 were provided [36][37]. - **Spread Analysis**: The 1 - 5 spread was strongly running, and the 01 basis strengthened slightly. Charts of 1 - 5 spreads and 01 basis from 2021 to 2025 were provided [44][45]. - **Urea - Related Product Spreads**: Charts of spreads between liquid ammonia and urea, ammonium chloride and urea, etc. from 2021 to 2025 were provided [50][53].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - For ferrosilicon, last week the double - silicon futures prices stopped falling and rebounded at a low level. In November, the settlement electricity prices in Ningxia and Qinghai increased steadily, and the year - end production pressure on enterprises increased, leading to a warmer market expectation. Fundamentally, last week, the supply of ferrosilicon increased while the demand decreased. The previously - overhauled manufacturers resumed production, and the factory inventory stopped falling and rebounded. At the end of the year, the supply and demand of ferroalloys are both weak, and the prices fluctuate weakly following the black series. However, the alloy industry has been in continuous losses for several months, and there is no driving force for the prices to continue falling. The idea of hedging against price rebounds in the industry remains unchanged. On the night of last Friday, the double - coke prices dropped significantly, and the pessimistic expectation of loose supply and demand dragged down the alloy prices. In the short term, the alloy trend is weak, waiting for new macro - industrial drivers [4]. - For silicomanganese, last week the double - silicon futures prices stopped falling and rebounded at a low level. In November, the settlement electricity prices in Ningxia and Qinghai increased steadily, and the year - end production pressure on enterprises increased, leading to a warmer market expectation. Fundamentally, last week, the supply and demand of silicomanganese both decreased. The production cost in the southwest region was seriously inverted, and the production in the Yunnan - Guizhou production areas was significantly reduced. The steel mill demand was weak, and a new round of steel procurement was in progress. Attention should be paid to the quantity and price performance. The silicomanganese factory inventory continued to reach new highs, strongly suppressing price rebounds. At the end of the year, the supply and demand of ferroalloys are both weak, and the prices fluctuate weakly following the black series. On the night of last Friday, the double - coke prices dropped significantly, and the pessimistic expectation of loose supply and demand dragged down the alloy prices. In the short term, the alloy trend is weak, waiting for new macro - industrial drivers [22]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Ferrosilicon Supply - The weekly output of 136 independent ferrosilicon enterprises was 108,800 tons (a 1.5% increase from the previous week and a 9.5% decrease year - on - year). In November 2025, the ferrosilicon output was 471,100 tons (a 6.78% decrease from the previous month and a 7.71% decrease year - on - year) [6]. Demand - The consumption of ferrosilicon in five major steel products was 18,700 tons (a 4.5% decrease from the previous week and a 6.5% decrease year - on - year). The weekly output of five major steel products was 882,950 tons (a 3.13% decrease from the previous week and a 3.75% decrease year - on - year) [9]. Inventory - The enterprise inventory was 72,600 tons (a 1.13% increase from the previous week and a 0.76% increase year - on - year). The steel mill inventory in November was 15.8 days (an increase of 0.13 days from the previous month and an increase of 1.5 days year - on - year) [11]. Cost - The cost was stable. For example, in Inner Mongolia, Ningxia, and Qinghai, although there were some small fluctuations in profit and cost, the raw material prices such as silica and oxidation iron scale remained unchanged in most cases. The cost of ferrosilicon in Inner Mongolia was 5,877.22 yuan/ton on December 5, 2025, a 0.23% increase from the previous week [15]. Basis - The ferrosilicon basis (Ningxia) for the 03 contract was - 24 yuan/ton, a decrease of 84 yuan/ton from the previous week. The ferrosilicon warehouse receipt quantity was 13,588 (an increase of 2,681 from the previous week and an increase of 6,720 year - on - year) [18]. Silicomanganese Supply - The weekly output of 121 independent silicomanganese enterprises was 187,900 tons (a 3.5% decrease from the previous week and a 3.6% decrease year - on - year). In November, the national silicomanganese output was 848,800 tons (a 7.3% decrease from the previous month and a 3.1% increase year - on - year) [25]. Demand - The weekly consumption of silicomanganese was 116,600 tons (a 4.2% decrease from the previous week and a 6.5% decrease year - on - year). The weekly output of five major steel products was 882,950 tons (a 3.13% decrease from the previous week and a 3.75% decrease year - on - year) [27]. Inventory - The enterprise sample inventory was 375,500 tons (a 2% increase from the previous week and an 87.7% increase year - on - year). The steel mill inventory in November was 15.8 days (an increase of 0.14 days from the previous month and an increase of 0.99 days year - on - year) [30]. Cost - The manganese ore price was strong. For example, the price of Tianjin Port Australian ore (Mn45%) was 41.5 yuan/ton - degree on December 5, 2025, a 3.75% increase from the previous week. The cost of silicomanganese in Ningxia was 5,955.19 yuan/ton, a 0.27% increase from the previous week [36]. Basis - The silicomanganese warehouse receipt quantity was 21,207 (an increase of 6,449 from the previous week and a decrease of 29,169 year - on - year). The silicomanganese basis (Inner Mongolia) for the 03 contract was 122 yuan/ton, a decrease of 112 yuan/ton from the previous week [32].

库存创出新高，价格创出新低 ——烧碱周报2025.12.08 作者： 刘培洋 联系方式：0371-58620083 电子邮箱：liupy_qh@ccnew.com 执业证书编号：F0290318 交易咨询编号：Z0011155 本期观点 | 品种 | 主要逻辑 | 策略建议 | 风险提示 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | 1、宏观：国内关注年底中央会议，海外重点关注本周美联储12月份 | | | | | 议息会议。 | 烧碱2601合约 | 1、国内外宏 | | | 2、供需面：山东地区供应高位，需求刚需，主力下游压车，短期整 | | 观政策及经 | | | 体预计缓慢，再需求端无明显增量，供应端不减量的情况下，山东 | 上方参考压力 | 济数据变化； | | 烧碱 | 液碱短期依旧小幅看跌。华东区域内供应仍宽裕，供需矛盾仍偏大， | 位2250元/吨 | 2、企业装置 | | | 传统需求淡季延续，出口未有明显提振下预估下液碱价格延续趋弱 | 一线，下方支 | 检修情况； | | | | 撑位2000元/ | | | | 表现。 | 吨一线。 | 3、下游需求 | | | 3、 ...

Report Summary 1. Industry Investment Rating No investment rating information provided in the report. 2. Core View The report predicts that after this round of rebound, cotton prices will gradually return to a volatile pattern. Although the Fed's interest - rate cut expectation is rising, the support is limited. The global supply - demand pattern is weak, with low demand. In the domestic market, the positive macro - environment and short - term spot resource shortage support the market, and downstream rigid demand persists. [3] 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Market Review - **US Cotton**: ICE cotton was reported at 63.82 - 64.85 cents per pound, with a Friday closing price of 63.93 cents per pound, a week - on - week decrease of 1.2%. As of November 28, the number of unpriced contracts of sellers on the ON - CALL 2603 contract increased by 634 to 21,716, equivalent to an increase of 10,000 tons from last week. The total number of unpriced contracts of sellers in the 25/26 season increased by 1,001 to 39,293, equivalent to 890,000 tons, an increase of 20,000 tons from last week. The total number of unpriced contracts of ICE sellers increased to 48,920, equivalent to 1.11 million tons, an increase of 1,482 (or 30,000 tons) from last week [9]. - **Zhengzhou Cotton**: It was reported at 13,660 - 13,820 yuan per ton, with a Friday closing price of 13,750 yuan per ton, a week - on - week increase of 25 yuan. As of December 5, the number of registered warehouse receipts for No. 1 cotton was 2,709, and the number of forecast warehouse receipts was 2,781, totaling 5,490, equivalent to 230,580 tons [10]. - **Domestic Cotton Spot**: The price center of domestic cotton spot prices moved slightly upward and then fluctuated in a narrow range this week. The one - time price of cotton spot increased, and the sales basis of cotton spot weakened. The one - time price of 2025/26 southern Xinjiang hand - picked cotton and northern Xinjiang machine - picked cotton was mostly quoted at around 14,800 - 14,950 yuan per ton (gross weight), and the actual transaction was slightly discounted. [13][16] 3.2 Domestic Cotton Market - **Supply**: The China Cotton Association predicts that the total cotton output in the 2025/26 season will reach 7.216 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 8.3%, the highest since 2013. The Xinjiang cotton region is expected to produce about 6.911 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 9.2%, accounting for 95.8% of the national total. In October 2025, 90,000 tons of cotton were imported, a year - on - year decrease of 15,800 tons and a month - on - month decrease of 5,000 tons. From January to October 2025, the cumulative import was 770,800 tons, a year - on - year decrease of 67.4% (or 1.595 million tons). The cumulative import in the 2025/26 season was 185,000 tons, a year - on - year decrease of 17% (or 38,000 tons) [19][26]. - **Demand**: The demand performance is average but still shows resilience, and the operating rate remains flat [29][35]. - **Profit**: The processing profit of ginning mills this week was 722 - 762 yuan per ton, and the immediate profit of spinning mills was - 1,099.6 - - 1,053.4 yuan per ton [38]. - **Inventory**: As of the week of December 8, the national commercial cotton inventory was 4.465 million tons, a week - on - week increase of 285,600 tons, higher than the same period last year by 14,680 tons. At the end of October, the industrial cotton inventory of cotton textile enterprises was 874,200 tons, a month - on - month increase of 42,200 tons [44]. 3.3 International Market - **Global Cotton Supply - Demand**: According to the latest November global cotton production and sales forecast by USDA, the global output was 26.145 million tons, a significant month - on - month increase of 523,000 tons, mainly due to the output adjustments in China and the US. The demand increased slightly to 25.883 million tons, showing an overall bearish trend [46].