Report Summary 1. Report Title - "Supply and Demand Lack Drive, Market Fluctuates Widely - Ferroalloy Weekly Report 20250818" [1] 2. Analyst Information - Research and Consulting Department: Peng Bohan - Contact: 0371 - 58630083 - Email: pengbh_qh@ccnew.com - Professional Certificate Number: F3076814 - Investment Consulting Number: Z0016415 [2] 3. Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the report 4. Core Views - **Silicon Ferroalloy**: The market had wide - range fluctuations last week, with the focus shifting down in the second half of the week. Fundamentally, production increased, demand was in a weak off - season pattern, and the market was mainly driven by macro and coal industry policies, showing a short - term range - bound and center - rising trend [4]. - **Manganese Ferroalloy**: The market had wide - range fluctuations last week, with continuous decline from Tuesday. Fundamentally, production increased, demand was weak in the off - season, and the market was dominated by macro and coal industry policies, also showing a short - term range - bound and center - rising trend [23] 5. Summary by Variety Silicon Ferroalloy - **Supply**: 136 independent silicon ferroalloy enterprises had a weekly output of 11.28 tons (up 3.4% week - on - week and 10.6% year - on - year), and the production increase continued to expand, with the operating rate reaching a 4 - month high [4][6]. - **Demand**: Weak and stable. The consumption of silicon ferroalloy in five major steel products was 2.03 tons (up 0.2% week - on - week and 16.5% year - on - year), and the weekly output of five major steel products was 871.63 tons (up 0.28% week - on - week and 12.04% year - on - year) [7][9]. - **Inventory**: Manufacturers' inventory decreased. Enterprise inventory was 6.52 tons (down 9.18% week - on - week and up 5.44% year - on - year), and the steel mill inventory days in July were 14.25 days (down 1.13 days month - on - month and 0.98 days year - on - year) [10][12]. - **Cost**: Prices remained stable during the week. Although some raw material prices changed slightly, the overall cost and profit situation varied in different regions [13][15]. - **Futures and Spot**: The futures market had a slight premium. The number of silicon ferroalloy warehouse receipts was 20,916 (up 1,270 week - on - week and 7,182 year - on - year), and the basis of the 09 contract in Ningxia was - 132 yuan/ton, down 110 yuan/ton week - on - week [16][18]. - **Contract Position and Precipitated Funds**: Data on position and precipitated funds were presented in the form of charts, but specific numerical summaries were not provided in the text [19][20] Manganese Ferroalloy - **Supply**: 121 independent manganese ferroalloy enterprises had a weekly output of 20.7 tons (up 5.7% week - on - week and 3.5% year - on - year), and the production increase continued to expand, with the operating rate in Inner Mongolia rising to the highest level since March [23][25]. - **Demand**: Stable with a slight increase. The weekly consumption of manganese ferroalloy was 12.53 tons (up 0.1% week - on - week and 15.3% year - on - year), and the weekly output of five major steel products was 871.63 tons (up 0.28% week - on - week and 12.04% year - on - year) [26][28]. - **Inventory**: The decline in factory inventory slowed down. Enterprise sample inventory was 15.88 tons (down 1.67% week - on - week and 28.8% year - on - year), and the steel mill inventory days in July were 14.24 days (down 1.25 days month - on - month and 1.19 days year - on - year) [29][31]. - **Cost**: Manganese ore prices fluctuated. The inventory of manganese ore in ports increased slowly, and the cost and profit of manganese ferroalloy production in different regions changed slightly [36][39]. - **Futures and Spot**: The number of warehouse receipts decreased steadily. The number of manganese ferroalloy warehouse receipts was 74,797 (down 1,248 week - on - week and 60,999 year - on - year), and the basis of the 09 contract in Inner Mongolia was 124 yuan/ton, up 20 week - on - week [32][35]. - **Contract Position and Precipitated Funds**: Data on position and precipitated funds were presented in the form of charts, but specific numerical summaries were not provided in the text [40][41]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content 2. Core Views of the Report - The steel market is affected by tariff disturbances, with steel prices experiencing increased volatility. The black - series market had a concentrated release of previous bullish sentiment, facing short - term adjustments due to factors such as post - delivery market arrival pressure and recent tariff impacts, but still having upward drivers in the medium term [3]. - The supply, demand, and inventory of different steel products (such as rebar and hot - rolled coils) and raw materials (such as iron ore, coking coal, and coke) show different trends. For example, rebar has limited demand release in the off - season, while hot - rolled coils have a more optimistic demand performance [3]. 3. Summary According to the Directory 3.1 Market Review - The prices of raw materials were under pressure at high levels, and steel prices fluctuated and adjusted. The prices of some steel products and raw materials changed, with some rising and some falling. The market sentiment cooled down after the exchange adjusted the coking coal handling fee and imposed position limits. Rebar has been accumulating inventory for three consecutive weeks, while the inventory increase of hot - rolled coils has slowed down, and the social inventory has decreased. In the short - term, the trend of hot - rolled coils is stronger than that of rebar, and the overall market shows an oscillating adjustment [9]. 3.2 Steel Supply and Demand Analysis - **Supply**: National rebar weekly output was 220.45 million tons (down 0.33% month - on - month and up 32.51% year - on - year), and national hot - rolled coil weekly output was 315.59 million tons (up 0.22% month - on - month and up 4.72% year - on - year). Rebar production decreased slightly, and hot - rolled coil production increased slightly. The blast furnace and electric furnace production of rebar both decreased slightly. The blast furnace operating rate decreased slightly, and the electric furnace operating rate increased slightly. The profits of rebar and hot - rolled coils both contracted [14][16][27]. - **Demand**: Rebar apparent consumption was 189.94 million tons (down 9.89% month - on - month and down 4.72% year - on - year), and hot - rolled coil apparent consumption was 314.75 million tons (up 2.79% month - on - month and up 9.21% year - on - year). Rebar demand declined significantly, while hot - rolled coil demand showed an increase [35]. - **Inventory**: Rebar total inventory was 587.19 million tons (up 5.48% month - on - month and down 14.97% year - on - year), and hot - rolled coil total inventory was 357.47 million tons (up 0.24% month - on - month and down 20.66% year - on - year). Rebar inventory accumulation expanded, and hot - rolled coil inventory accumulation slowed down [39][44]. - **Downstream**: In the real estate market, the transactions of commercial housing and land both weakened month - on - month. In the automotive market, in July 2025, automobile production and sales decreased month - on - month but increased year - on - year [45][50]. 3.3 Iron Ore Supply and Demand Analysis - **Supply**: The iron ore price index was 100.81 (down 0.37% month - on - month and up 6.71% year - on - year). The shipments from 19 ports in Australia and Brazil were 2669.7 million tons (up 9.96% month - on - month and up 3.41% year - on - year), and the arrival volume at 45 iron ore ports was 2476.6 million tons (up 3.98% month - on - month and up 5.49% year - on - year) [57]. - **Demand**: The daily output of hot metal was 240.66 million tons (up 0.34 million tons month - on - month and up 11.89 million tons year - on - year), and the port clearance volume at 45 iron ore ports was 334.67 million tons (up 3.98% month - on - month and up 2.43% year - on - year). The inventory - to - sales ratio of 247 steel enterprises was 30.61 days (up 1.26% month - on - month and down 5.35% year - on - year) [62]. - **Inventory**: The inventory at 45 iron ore ports was 13819.27 million tons (up 0.78% month - on - month and down 8.07% year - on - year), and the imported iron ore inventory of 247 steel enterprises was 9136.4 million tons (up 1.37% month - on - month and up 0.73% year - on - year) [68]. 3.4 Coking Coal and Coke Supply and Demand Analysis - **Supply**: The operating rate of coking coal mines was 83.73% (down 0.19% month - on - month and down 7.14% year - on - year), the capacity utilization rate of coal washing plants was 36.51% (up 0.80% month - on - month and down 11.32% year - on - year), and the daily Mongolian coal customs clearance volume was 16.51 million tons (up 16.60% month - on - month and up 18.28% year - on - year) [74]. - **Demand**: The daily coking coal auction transaction rate was 87.72% (up 9.46% week - on - week and up 27.37% year - on - year), and the weekly coking coal auction transaction rate was 82.08% (down 6.76% week - on - week and up 36.73% year - on - year) [76]. - **Coking Enterprise Situation**: The profit per ton of coke for independent coking plants was + 20 yuan/ton (up 36 yuan/ton month - on - month and up 57 yuan/ton year - on - year), and the capacity utilization rate of independent coking plants was 74.34% (up 0.42% month - on - month and up 2.07% year - on - year) [82]. - **Inventory**: The coking coal inventory of independent coking plants was 829.31 million tons (down 0.45% month - on - month and up 23.53% year - on - year), the steel mill coking coal inventory was 805.60 million tons (down 0.36% month - on - month and up 11.43% year - on - year), and the coking coal port inventory was 255.49 million tons (down 7.88% month - on - month and down 25.59% year - on - year). The coke inventory of independent coking plants was 39.31 million tons (down 11.92% month - on - month and down 13.98% year - on - year), the steel mill coke inventory was 609.8 million tons (down 1.53% month - on - month and up 14.24% year - on - year), and the coke port inventory was 215.11 million tons (down 1.39% month - on - month and up 14.29% year - on - year) [88][94]. - **Spot Price**: The sixth round of coke price increases has been implemented, and the game between steel and coke enterprises continues [95]. 3.5 Spread Analysis - The basis of rebar has widened, and the spread between rebar contracts 10 - 1 has continued to shrink. The spread between iron ore contracts 9 - 1 has continued to narrow, and the spread between hot - rolled coils and rebar has widened again [102][108].

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The A - share market has shown a strong upward trend, with multiple indices hitting stage - highs, and both domestic and international institutions are generally optimistic about the subsequent performance of the Chinese stock market [6]. - The global financial market is awaiting the Jackson Hole Global Central Bank Symposium, and different institutions have different expectations for Fed Chairman Powell's speech [8]. - The current slow - bull market in A - shares has entered the middle stage, with a structural rise, and investors should pay attention to the rhythm of investment and avoid chasing up and selling down [18]. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs 1. Macro - economic News - Premier Li Qiang emphasized enhancing macro - policy implementation efficiency, stimulating consumption potential, expanding effective investment, and stabilizing the real estate market [6]. - A - share market indices hit new highs, with the Shanghai Composite Index closing above 3700 points, and the total market capitalization exceeding 100 trillion yuan [6]. - Trump and Zelensky met at the White House, and there may be a trilateral meeting among the US, Russia, and Ukraine. Ukraine will purchase $100 billion worth of weapons from the US and sign a $50 billion drone cooperation production agreement [7]. - The State Council Information Office will hold a press conference on August 20 to introduce parade preparation work [7]. - Deputy Governor Zou Lan of the central bank proposed improving the legal system of movable property guarantee [7]. - The National Medical Insurance Work Symposium announced nine key tasks, including formulating a new payment - by - disease model and exploring centralized procurement after the agreement period [7]. - In the first half of the year, automobile dealers suffered serious losses in new - car business, and the outlook for 2025 is a slight increase or flat [8]. 2. Morning Meeting Views on Main Varieties 2.1 Agricultural Products - Peanut market is in a pattern of weak supply and demand, with prices expected to fluctuate slightly and show a downward trend in the long - term [10]. - On August 18, the sugar futures price rose, and considering the supply and demand situation, short - term long positions can be lightly established near the support level [10]. - Corn futures continued to be weak on August 18, and with a "double - weak" fundamental situation, existing short positions can be held, and new short positions can be established on rebounds [10]. - The spot price of live pigs was stable over the weekend, with a short - term upward trend, but the futures market is bearish [10]. - The spot price of eggs was stable with an upward tendency over the weekend, but the futures market may still decline to repair the basis [12]. - Cotton futures showed weak upward momentum, and with a supply - tight situation in the short - term and expected production increase in the long - term, the price may decline in the short - term [12]. 2.2 Energy and Chemicals - The domestic urea market price increased, and the futures price may fluctuate within the range of 1700 - 1800 yuan/ton [12]. - The price of caustic soda rose, and with the approaching peak demand season, a bullish trading strategy is recommended [12]. - The price of coking coal and coke fluctuated, and the market is in a state of multi - empty game [13]. 2.3 Industrial Metals - The price of copper may continue to oscillate, and the price of aluminum is expected to adjust at a high level [13]. - The supply of alumina increased, and the price is expected to fluctuate within a range [13]. - The price of steel products may fluctuate, with short - term adjustment pressure and medium - term upward momentum [13]. - The price of ferroalloys may fluctuate within a range with a rising center of gravity [15]. - The price of lithium carbonate futures rose, and long positions can be established near the support level [15]. 2.4 Options and Finance - For stock index options on August 18, the A - share market was strong, and different trading strategies are recommended for trend and volatility investors [16]. - In the short - term, for stock indices, attention should be paid to reducing positions in high - valuation and high - deviation indices. The current A - share market is in a slow - bull market, and low - buying opportunities can be sought during sharp declines [17][19].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant information provided 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The A - share market is expected to maintain a relatively strong trend, but may experience increased volatility and consolidation when the index is at a high level and trying to break through previous highs. It is recommended to focus on sectors such as AI, innovative drugs, non - ferrous metals, military industry, and large - scale finance. During the peak period of interim report disclosure, allocation opportunities in industries like machinery, power equipment, non - bank finance, and electronics are also worthy of attention [9]. - For Hong Kong, if it can transform the tension between traditional and emerging economic models into a driving force for economic upgrading and transformation, it can create new growth points. The integration of the supply chain and the reshaping of trade forms will bring new development opportunities to Hong Kong's trade, shipping, finance, and professional services [10]. - The central government's fiscal policy still has significant room for improvement, and in the fourth quarter, there may be a new round of policy layout. Further measures to improve residents' social security are expected [10]. - The EU's "Savings and Investment Alliance" plan may encourage more countries to adopt the Swedish - style bank account model, promoting more people to invest their savings in stocks [11]. - It is recommended to maintain the view of a slow - bull market in the A - share market. For investors, it is important to grasp the rotation rhythm of sectors. For less - experienced investors, it is advisable to reduce trading frequency. Opportunities for low - buying in IF, IM, and IC are still worthy of attention [24][25]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Chemical Industry - **Price Changes**: On August 18, 2025, among chemical products, PVC had the largest increase with a 3.290% rise, while 20 - day rubber had the largest decline with a 0.551% drop [6]. 3.2 Agricultural Products - **Price Changes**: On August 18, 2025, among agricultural products, palm oil had the largest increase with a 2.093% rise, while cotton had a 0.106% decline [6]. - **Market Analysis**: - **Peanuts**: The peanut market is in a situation of weak supply and demand, with prices in a narrow - range shock. In the short term, it is expected to be in a strong - shock trend but will not change the downward trend [13]. - **Sugar**: The sugar market has a mixed fundamental situation. It is recommended to operate with a shock mindset in the 5600 - 5700 yuan range, and focus on Brazil's production progress and domestic import data [13]. - **Corn**: The corn market is also in a weak supply - demand situation. It is recommended to sell short on rallies in the short term and pay attention to the start time of policy - based purchases and the rhythm of new grain listings [13]. - **Pigs**: The national pig price is stable with a slight decline, and the market is expected to remain range - bound [13]. - **Eggs**: The national egg spot price is stable, and the spot price is expected to rise steadily. It is recommended to avoid going long on the futures market [14]. - **Cotton**: The international cotton market has good export and shipment performance, but the upward momentum is insufficient. The domestic cotton market is expected to be in a slightly strong shock trend, and attention should be paid to the resistance level of 14,300 yuan/ton [14]. 3.3 Energy and Chemical Industry - **Urea**: The domestic urea market price is weakly stable. Although it is facing weak supply - demand pressure, the release of news such as the Indian tender may boost market sentiment. The disk should focus on the 1680 - 1800 yuan/ton range [14]. - **Caustic Soda**: The price of caustic soda in Shandong may rise steadily in the short term, and the price in the East China region is expected to be in a narrow - range adjustment. It is recommended to pay attention to the 9 - 11 reverse spread [14]. - **Coking Coal**: The overall supply of coking coal recovers slowly, and downstream demand is weak. However, the six - round price increase of coke has been implemented, which provides some support. It is expected that the price of coking coal will remain firm in the short term and show a high - level shock [14][16]. 3.4 Industrial Metals - **Copper and Aluminum**: The copper price continues to oscillate and consolidate, and the aluminum price is expected to continue high - level adjustment [18]. - **Alumina**: The supply of alumina increases, and the demand is relatively stable. The spot price has limited upward momentum, and it is expected to continue range - bound consolidation [18]. - **Rebar and Hot - Rolled Coil**: The steel price is facing adjustment pressure, but the overall decline space is limited, and there is still upward driving force. It is recommended to pay attention to the opportunity of low - buying in the medium term [19]. - **Ferroalloys**: The output of ferroalloys increases, and the demand is weak in the off - season. The price is expected to be in an interval shock with a rising center of gravity [19][20]. - **Lithium Carbonate**: There is a short - term supply - demand mismatch in the lithium carbonate market. It is recommended to go long on dips based on the new support level of 85,000 yuan, but be vigilant against technical corrections [20]. 3.5 Option Finance - **Options**: On August 15, the A - share market was strong. The trading volume of stock index options increased, and the implied volatility rose. Trend investors can pay attention to the strength - weakness arbitrage opportunities between varieties, and volatility investors can buy straddles to bet on increased volatility [22]. - **Stock Index**: The A - share market maintains a slow - bull trend. The trading volume has increased significantly, and high - net - worth investors are accelerating their entry into the market. It is recommended to invest in broad - based ETFs for ordinary investors, and focus on the financial sector represented by securities in September [23][24][25].

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints - The A-share market is in a slow bull market, with the Shanghai Composite Index breaking through 3700 points this week and overall maintaining an upward trend. High-net-worth investors are accelerating their entry into the market, and the trend of residents' deposits flowing into the equity market remains unchanged in the future [3]. - The aluminum price is expected to remain high and consolidate in the short term, with a reference range of 20,000 - 21,000 yuan/ton [3]. - The price of battery-grade lithium carbonate is expected to fluctuate sharply. If production reduction is confirmed, the price may rise further; if the output of lithium spodumene production lines continues to increase to make up for the reduction, the price may decline [3][4]. - The prices of coking coal and coke are expected to remain firm in the short term, showing a high-level shock [4]. - The urea market price is weak and stable. The futures disk should focus on the range of 1680 - 1800 yuan/ton, and pay attention to the raw material end and Indian tender dynamics [4]. - The steel price is expected to face adjustment pressure in the short term, but the overall decline space is limited, and there is still upward momentum. There are opportunities for low - buying in the medium term [4]. - The near - month egg futures contract 09 will continue to test the support at 3000, and the far - month contract will follow the decline passively. Investors should exit long positions and go short on rebounds [5]. - The price of live pigs will maintain a shock range of 13,700 - 14,700 yuan/ton, and pay attention to the support at 13,700 yuan this week [5]. - The sugar price is recommended to go short on rallies. The international sugar market is expected to fluctuate in a narrow range, and the domestic sugar market has both long and short factors, and pay attention to the July import data [5]. - Zhengzhou cotton is expected to fluctuate strongly, focusing on the range of 13,900 - 14,300 yuan/ton [6]. 3. Summary by Variety Options - This week, the A - share market continued to rise, with the Shanghai Composite Index reaching a new high since 2022 and the market turnover exceeding 2 trillion for three consecutive trading days. The moving averages of the CSI 300 index are arranged in a long position, and the three - color K - line indicators of the daily and weekly lines are all red. The IF futures contract has a premium, and the trading volume of IO options has increased [2]. - The CSI 1000 index has also shown a good upward trend, with the IM futures contract having a premium at one point during the week. The trading volume of MO options has increased, and the open interest in August has reached a new high since listing [2]. - The Shanghai 50 index has a long - position arrangement of daily moving averages, and the HO futures contract has an expanding premium. The trading volume of HO options has increased, and the open interest in August has exceeded the previous three months [2]. Stock Index - The Shanghai Composite Index broke through 3700 points this week and remained in an upward trend. The trading sentiment has warmed up significantly, and high - net - worth investors are accelerating their entry into the market. It is recommended to enter the IF and IM index futures on dips [3]. Aluminum - Macroscopically, China's exports in July were slightly weaker but still resilient. The US government has expanded the scope of the 50% tariff on steel and aluminum imports. Fundamentally, there is a strong expectation of inventory accumulation under the influence of increased supply and the off - season of consumption [3]. Lithium Carbonate - This week, the spot price of battery - grade lithium carbonate was 78,000 - 83,000 yuan/ton, and the futures price rose by 12.92% week - on - week. Supply - side disturbances such as the suspension of production at mines have led to concerns about supply, but the overall supply - demand pattern has not been fully improved [3][4]. Coking Coal and Coke - The weekly production of raw coal decreased slightly, and the inventory of raw coal decreased. The production of clean coal increased, and the inventory increased. The overall supply recovery is slow, and the downstream is mainly executing previous orders. The six - round price increase of coke has been implemented, which provides certain support for the prices of coking coal and coke [4]. Urea - The domestic urea market price is weak and stable. The daily production is expected to continue to rise slightly. The inventory of upstream urea enterprises has accumulated, and the demand is advancing slowly. Pay attention to the raw material end and Indian tender dynamics [4]. Steel (Rebar and Hot - Rolled Coil) - The inventory of the five major steel products has increased. The production and demand of rebar have both decreased, and the inventory has increased significantly. The demand for hot - rolled coils shows certain resilience, and the inventory increase has slowed down. Pay attention to the impact of the US tariff increase on exports and the production arrangements of domestic steel mills [4]. Eggs - The spot price has declined, and the supply is greater than the demand. The main futures contract has a large premium over the spot, and the futures price is expected to continue to decline to repair the basis [5]. Live Pigs - The spot price has increased slightly, and the futures price has decreased. The supply in the breeding end is greater than the demand, and the price is expected to maintain a shock range [5]. Sugar - The international sugar market lacks new driving factors and is expected to fluctuate in a narrow range. The domestic sugar market has both long and short factors, and pay attention to the July import data [5]. Cotton - The international cotton market has good export performance, but the upward momentum of US cotton is insufficient. The domestic cotton market has tight inventory and demand expectations, but the overall upward trend is weak, and pay attention to the recovery of demand [6].

Report Summary 1. Industry Investment Rating No industry investment rating is provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints - The central bank has carried out large - scale reverse repurchase operations, injecting medium - term liquidity, and the market expects the central bank to increase the volume of MLF renewal. The Fed's September interest - rate cut expectation has been frustrated due to high PPI data. Various industries are facing different situations, such as the shipping industry getting regulatory relaxation, the banking industry promoting "anti - involution" measures, and the express delivery industry showing growth in business volume and revenue [9][10][11]. - Different futures varieties have different trends. For example, some agricultural products are in a state of weak supply and demand, and energy - chemical products are affected by factors such as supply and demand and seasonal demand. Industrial metals are affected by factors such as supply guidance and inventory, and the option - financial market is affected by market sentiment and macro - data [6][14][19][20][23]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Chemicals - **Price Changes**: On August 15, 2025, compared with August 14, 2025, the prices of most chemical products changed. For example, methanol rose by 4.359% (from 2,340.00 to 2,442.00), while 20 - number rubber fell by 0.080% (from 12,490.00 to 12,480.00) [6]. 3.2 Macro - News - **Central Bank Operations**: The central bank carried out 500 billion yuan of 6 - month (182 - day) outright reverse repurchase operations on August 15, and the cumulative outright reverse repurchase operations this month have exceeded the renewal amount by 30 billion yuan. The market expects the central bank to increase the volume of MLF renewal after 300 billion yuan of MLF matures this month [9]. - **Fed Interest - Rate Cut Expectation**: The US July PPI soared, with a year - on - year increase of 3.3% and a month - on - month increase of 0.9%, frustrating the Fed's September interest - rate cut expectation. Some Fed officials oppose a 50 - basis - point rate cut in September [9]. - **Other News**: The State Council added a new K - type visa for foreign young scientific and technological talents. The National Data Bureau will introduce more than 10 systems such as data property rights. The financial regulatory authorities in some regions advocate "anti - involution" in the banking industry. The US President Trump relaxed commercial space regulations. The US Treasury Secretary clarified that he was not pressuring the Fed to cut interest rates. The express delivery business volume and revenue in July increased year - on - year. The first domestic commercial electron - beam lithography machine entered the application test [9][10][11]. 3.3 Morning Meeting Views on Main Varieties 3.3.1 Agricultural Products - **Peanuts**: The peanut market is in a state of weak supply and demand, with prices fluctuating slightly. In the short term, it is expected to fluctuate strongly, but the downward trend remains [14]. - **Sugar**: The sugar futures price is in a high - level shock. The US Department of Agriculture has raised the new - year sugar production forecast, but the concerns about Brazilian production and the Fed's interest - rate cut expectation support the raw sugar price. It is recommended to operate in the range of 5,650 - 5,680 yuan/ton [14]. - **Corn**: The corn futures price showed a rebound with a reduction in positions. The supply side has limited remaining grain in the Northeast, but the low - price listing of new - season corn in Jiangsu has a suppressing effect. The demand side is in a wait - and - see state. It is recommended to participate in the short - term rebound near the support level of 2,270 yuan [14]. - **Pigs**: The national pig price was stable with a slight increase. The supply side has enhanced resistance to price drops, and the demand side has improved. The futures market is in a pattern of near - term weakness and long - term strength, and is expected to fluctuate within a range [14]. - **Eggs**: The national egg spot price is stable. The spot market may rebound due to downstream stocking demand, but the futures market may fall to repair the basis. It is recommended to short on rebounds and conduct reverse spreads between months [14][15]. - **Cotton**: ICE US cotton futures rose and then fell. Zhengzhou cotton futures rose slightly. The cotton market sentiment is cautious, and the spot market has slightly improved. The cotton price is supported by factors such as tight commercial inventory and the conversion of demand from off - season to peak season. It is expected to fluctuate strongly in the short term [17]. 3.3.2 Energy - Chemicals - **Urea**: The domestic urea market price continued to decline slightly. The supply pressure is expected to increase, and the demand is weak. The futures price is expected to fluctuate weakly, and attention should be paid to the support level of 1,700 yuan/ton [19]. - **Caustic Soda**: The supply of caustic soda decreased this week, and the inventory decreased. With the arrival of the demand peak season in September, the demand has increased. It is recommended to pay attention to the 9 - 11 reverse spread [19][20]. - **Coking Coal and Coke**: The coking coal market is cautious, and the six - round price increase of coke has been implemented. The iron - water daily output has increased, and the decline of coking coal and coke prices is expected to slow down [20]. 3.3.3 Industrial Metals - **Copper and Aluminum**: The copper price continued to oscillate and consolidate due to the lack of favorable drivers. The aluminum inventory has exceeded 550,000 tons, and the price is expected to continue high - level adjustment [20]. - **Alumina**: The supply of alumina has increased, the demand is relatively stable, and the spot price has limited upward momentum. It is expected to continue to fluctuate within a range, and attention should be paid to the supply interference of bauxite [20]. - **Rebar and Hot - Rolled Coil**: The rebar night - session price fell, and the inventory increased. The hot - rolled coil production and demand both increased, and the inventory increase slowed down. The decline of the black - series is expected to slow down, and it will oscillate and adjust in the short term [20]. - **Ferroalloys**: The prices of ferrosilicon and ferromanganese fell. The supply of ferrosilicon and ferromanganese increased last week, and the demand was weak in the off - season. The alloy prices are expected to fluctuate within a range with a rising center of gravity [20][21]. - **Lithium Carbonate**: The futures and spot prices of lithium carbonate both strengthened. The supply is expected to increase in August, and the demand for cathode materials is also expected to increase. Attention should be paid to the support level of 85,000 yuan and the pressure level of 87,000 yuan. It is recommended to lay out long positions at low prices [21]. 3.3.4 Option - Financial - **Stock Index Options**: On August 14, the three major A - share indexes rose and then fell. The trading volume of the stock market exceeded 2 trillion yuan for two consecutive days. Different stock - index futures and options have different trends, and investors can pay attention to arbitrage opportunities and volatility strategies [21][23]. - **Stock Indexes**: The A - share market has been rising driven by liquidity, but there are signs of divergence and differentiation. The market may have short - term shock and pull - back pressure. It is not advisable to chase high, and it is recommended to enter the market at dips [23][25].

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not mentioned in the provided content Core Viewpoints of the Report - The overall economic and financial situation shows positive trends with the growth of social financing scale and M2, but single - month credit data fluctuations should not be over - emphasized. The markets of various commodities present different trends, and investment strategies should be adjusted according to the specific fundamentals of each commodity. The stock market has positive factors supporting it, but short - term fluctuations may increase after the index breakthrough [8][19] Summaries by Relevant Catalogs Macro - economic News - From January to July this year, the cumulative increase in social financing scale was 23.99 trillion yuan, 5.12 trillion yuan more than the same period last year; RMB loans increased by 12.87 trillion yuan. In late July, M2 increased by 8.8% year - on - year, M1 increased by 5.6%, and the stock of social financing scale increased by 9%. Do not over - focus on single - month credit data [8] - Market regulators and the Ministry of Industry and Information Technology plan to strengthen the management of intelligent connected new energy vehicles, emphasizing safety prompts and usage instructions for driving assistance systems and requiring filing for OTA upgrades [8] - Four departments including the central bank explained two discount interest policies, which are an innovative exploration to support consumption. Policy effectiveness will be evaluated after expiration [8] - In 2025, 188 billion yuan of investment subsidies for equipment renewal supported by ultra - long - term special treasury bonds have been allocated, driving total investment of over 1 trillion yuan [9] - The US Treasury Secretary called for the Fed to start a new round of interest rate cuts, with a high possibility of a 50 - basis - point cut in September [10] Morning Meeting Views on Major Commodities Agricultural Products - Peanut market prices are basically stable, with a pattern of weak supply and demand. The market is expected to be strongly volatile in the short term but will not change the downward trend [12] - On August 13, the sugar futures main contract rose 1.22%. Fundamentals show that Brazilian supply pressure is partially offset by domestic consumption season. It is recommended to go long at low prices with support at 5630 yuan [12] - On August 13, the corn futures main contract rose 0.89%. With new supplies and policy support, the market is in a consolidation phase. It is recommended to trade within the 2250 - 2300 yuan range [12] - The national pig price is falling steadily. Supply pressure and weak consumption lead to a bearish market sentiment, and the market is expected to fluctuate within a range [12] - The national egg spot price is stable. Supply is temporarily in excess, but prices are expected to rise steadily. It is recommended to avoid going long [13] - ICE US cotton futures rose significantly. Zhengzhou cotton was driven by the external market. The market may be strongly volatile in the short term, with support at around 14080 yuan [13] Energy and Chemicals - The domestic urea market price has a slight increase. With slow demand and increasing inventory, the futures price may continue to be weakly volatile in the short term, with the UR2601 contract in the 1730 - 1800 yuan/ton range [13] - The caustic soda market is stable. With the approaching peak demand season, the 2509 contract has stabilized. It is recommended to pay attention to the 9 - 11 reverse spread [13] - Coking coal and coke prices are under pressure. The downstream coke price increase is partially implemented, and the short - term price may be under pressure but the callback space is limited [13] Industrial Metals - Copper prices continue to oscillate. Aluminum prices are expected to continue high - level adjustments with increasing inventory [14] - Alumina supply is increasing, and the spot price is rising weakly. It is expected to continue range - bound trading, paying attention to bauxite supply disruptions [14] - The prices of rebar and hot - rolled coil are falling. With weakening market sentiment, the prices are expected to fall slightly in a volatile manner, but there is still upward momentum [14] - The double - silicon market is in a range - bound and upward - trending pattern. Supply has increased, demand is weak in the off - season, and it is mainly driven by macro and coal policies [14][17] - The supply and demand of lithium carbonate have a structural contradiction. It is recommended to trade in the 84000 - 88000 yuan range, following the trend if it breaks through 88000 yuan [17] Options and Finance - On August 13, A - share indexes rose collectively, with heavy trading volume. Index futures and options showed different trends. Trend investors can focus on arbitrage opportunities, and volatility investors can buy straddles [17][19] - The A - share market has positive factors, but short - term fluctuations may increase after the index breakthrough. It is not advisable to chase high prices. It is recommended to enter the market on dips, focusing on IF, IM, and IC [19]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - China and the US have agreed to suspend the implementation of 24% tariffs for another 90 days starting from August 12, 2025, which may allow the risk - preference in the capital market to continue [22]. - The A - share market is currently in a slow - bull trend, and in August, during the policy window period and the concentrated disclosure period of interim reports, the market may experience local hot - spot rotation. Investors should focus on sectors with strong performance prospects [23]. - For A - shares, the main stock indexes continue the trend of oscillating upward. It is recommended to follow the trend in investment, pay attention to locking in profits during rapid rallies, and look for low - buying opportunities in IF, IM, and IC [23][25]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Macro - news - China and the US issued a joint statement on the Stockholm economic and trade talks. Both sides will continue to suspend the implementation of 24% tariffs for 90 days starting from August 12. China will also continue to suspend relevant measures on the unreliable entity list [9]. - Three departments jointly issued a plan for fiscal interest subsidies on personal consumption loans, and nine departments including the Ministry of Finance issued a plan for fiscal interest subsidies on loans to service - industry business entities [9]. - The US CPI in July was flat year - on - year at 2.7%, lower than expected, while the core CPI rose 3.1% year - on - year, higher than expected. The market expects the Fed to cut interest rates in September with a probability of over 90% [10]. - The preliminary ruling of the Ministry of Commerce shows that there is dumping of imported rapeseed from Canada and halogenated butyl rubber from Canada and Japan. Temporary anti - dumping measures will be implemented starting from August 14, and an anti - dumping investigation will be launched on imported pea starch from Canada [10]. - The adjustment of domestic refined oil prices has been shelved this time [10]. - The Lithium Industry Branch of the China Non - Ferrous Metals Industry Association issued an initiative to resist "involution - style" malicious competition, and eight dry - process lithium battery separator enterprises reached a consensus on anti - involution [11]. 3.2 Morning Meeting Views on Main Varieties 3.2.1 Agricultural Products - Peanut market prices are basically stable, with a pattern of weak supply and demand. It is expected to be strongly oscillating in the short term but still in a downward trend [14]. - The sugar market has a situation of mixed long and short factors. It is recommended to wait and see. If it effectively breaks through the 5630 pressure level, a light - position long position can be tried [14]. - The corn market also has mixed long and short factors. It is recommended to wait and see in the short term, focusing on the competition at the 2260 key level [14]. - The national average price of live pigs is falling steadily. The futures price is expected to maintain an interval oscillation [14]. - The spot price of eggs is stabilizing. The futures market has a large selling pressure, and it is recommended to avoid long positions [14][15]. - The cotton price is oscillating upward, but it still lacks a core driving force in the short term. Attention should be paid to the USDA report and subsequent news [15]. 3.2.2 Energy and Chemicals - The domestic urea market price continues to be weak. The supply pressure is expected to increase, and the futures price may continue to oscillate and consolidate [17]. - The caustic soda market in Shandong is stable, and it is recommended to pay attention to the 9 - 11 reverse spread [17]. 3.2.3 Industrial Metals - The coking coal and coke prices are expected to remain strong in the short term due to the news of coking enterprise production restrictions [18]. - The copper price continues to oscillate and consolidate, and the aluminum price is expected to continue high - level adjustment due to factors such as increased supply and weak demand [18]. - The alumina market is in an oversupply pattern and is expected to continue interval consolidation [18]. - The steel price is expected to maintain an oscillating and upward trend due to cost increases and production - reduction expectations [18]. - The ferrosilicon and ferromanganese futures prices are oscillating, and the market is mainly affected by macro and coal industry policies, showing an interval oscillation with a rising center of gravity [21]. - The lithium carbonate futures price has risen, with strong expectations but weak reality in the fundamentals. It is recommended to operate within the range, and pay attention to the progress of mining license renewals and terminal restocking [21]. 3.2.4 Options and Finance - On August 12, the three major A - share indexes rose collectively. The futures and options markets of various indexes showed different trends. Trend investors should pay attention to the strength - based arbitrage opportunities between varieties, and volatility investors can buy straddles to bet on increased volatility [21][22].

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core View of the Report - The "anti-involution" policy is showing initial results, and the determination and difficulty of the policy should not be underestimated. The summer travel consumption has a certain pulling effect on CPI, and future attention should be paid to the potential transmission of employment income. For PPI, the price has declined compared to last month, and the key to future price elasticity still lies in the demand side. The market is in a strong stage with high capital risk appetite, but the sector rotation is fast, and the market of strong sectors is difficult to last. It is recommended to cash in some profits at high prices and look for low-sucking opportunities for IF, IM, and IC [16][17]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Chemicals - On August 12, 2025, among chemical products, coke had the largest increase with a rise of 90.50 yuan and a growth rate of 5.384%, while 20 - number rubber had the largest decrease with a decline of 25.0 yuan and a decrease rate of -0.198% [3]. Agricultural Products - On August 12, 2025, among agricultural products, cotton had the largest increase with a rise of 220.0 yuan and a growth rate of 1.608%, while rapeseed meal had the largest decrease with a decline of 61.0 yuan and a decrease rate of -2.239% [3]. Macro News - The Ministry of Finance and the State Taxation Administration solicited public opinions on the implementation regulations of the Value - Added Tax Law. The Ministry of Finance and the Ministry of Education revised the management measures for funds supporting the development of preschool education. Ant Group and China National Rare Earth Group refuted the rumor of "co - building the world's first rare earth RMB stablecoin." Ningde Times' lithium mine suspension led to a full - board limit up of lithium carbonate futures and a rise in the spot and stock markets. Trump's team expanded the scope of candidates for the Fed Chairman. Mexico set a minimum export price for fresh tomatoes. The refined oil price may be stranded for the fourth time this year. Hangzhou solicited opinions on promoting the development of embodied intelligent robot industry [5][6][7]. Morning Meeting Views on Major Varieties Agricultural Products - Peanut market prices are expected to fluctuate strongly in the short term but maintain a downward trend. Sugar futures are in a multi - empty intertwined situation, and it is recommended to operate within the 5550 - 5600 yuan range. Corn futures are in a supply - demand weak pattern, and it is recommended to conduct band trading within the 2250 - 2280 yuan range. The national average price of live pigs is weak, and the market is expected to fluctuate within a range. The national egg spot is stable, and it is recommended to reduce speculative short positions and arrange long positions in the far - month contracts. Cotton prices are under pressure and support, and it is recommended to wait and see [9][10][11]. Energy and Chemicals - The domestic urea market price is expected to fluctuate weakly. The caustic soda price in Shandong is expected to be stable, and that in East China is expected to be weakly stable. Coking coal and coke are expected to fluctuate strongly. The copper price is adjusting, and the aluminum price is expected to continue high - level adjustment. The alumina price is expected to continue range consolidation. Steel prices are expected to fluctuate strongly. The ferrosilicon and ferromanganese are expected to fluctuate within a range with a rising center of gravity. The lithium carbonate price has broken through the previous high, and it is recommended to try long positions on dips [10][11][13]. Industrial Metals - On August 11, the average price of Shanghai Non - ferrous 1 electrolytic copper was 79,150 yuan/ton, and the average price of A00 aluminum was 20,630 yuan/ton. The copper price continued to adjust, and the aluminum price was under pressure due to increased supply and weak demand. The average price of alumina was 3,249 yuan/ton, and it was expected to continue range consolidation. The prices of rebar and hot - rolled coil were expected to fluctuate strongly. The ferrosilicon and ferromanganese were expected to fluctuate within a range with a rising center of gravity [13]. Option Finance - On August 11, the three major A - share indexes rose collectively. The stock index futures increased in positions and volume, and the basis of the current - month contract of IF futures decreased. It is recommended that trend investors pay attention to the strength - weakness arbitrage opportunities between varieties, and volatility investors buy straddles to bet on increased volatility [15]. Stock Index Analysis - On August 11, the A - share market was strong, but the sector rotation was fast. The market is in a strong stage with high capital risk appetite, and it is recommended to cash in some profits at high prices and look for low - sucking opportunities for IF, IM, and IC [16][17].

Report Information - Report Title: Soda Ash and Glass Weekly Report - August 11, 2025 [1] - Author: Shen Wen [2] - Contact Information: shenwen_qh@ccnew.com, 0371 - 58620081 [2] 1. Report Core Views 1.1 Soda Ash - Supply: The plant operating rate was 85.41% (up 5.15% week - on - week), with the ammonia - soda method at 89.20% (up 2.80% week - on - week) and the combined soda method at 73.92% (up 6.06% week - on - week). The weekly output was 74.47 tons (up 4.49 tons week - on - week), with light soda ash output at 32.12 tons (up 2.01 tons) and heavy soda ash output at 42.35 tons (up 2.48 tons) [5]. - Demand: The apparent demand for soda ash was 67.54 tons (down 9.32 tons), with light soda ash at 29.66 tons (down 5.37 tons) and heavy soda ash at 37.88 tons (down 3.95 tons) [5]. - Inventory: Soda ash enterprise inventory was 186.51 tons (up 1.33 tons), light soda ash inventory was 71.76 tons (up 0.86 tons), and heavy soda ash inventory was 114.75 tons (up 0.47 tons) [5]. - Core Logic: The spot price of soda ash was weak this week. Recently, the overhauled plants of soda ash factories have resumed production one after another, and the supply of soda ash has risen to a year - on - year high level again. On the demand side, the apparent demand for soda ash decreased significantly week - on - week. The daily melting volume of float glass and photovoltaic glass remained stable. The expected reduction in the supply of photovoltaic glass will slow down. In general, soda ash still faces high supply and large warehouse receipt pressure, but the rise in raw material prices such as coal has also raised the cost bottom support. In the short term, the futures price of soda ash may continue to fluctuate weakly. In the long - term, under the pattern of new capacity release, the pressure of loose supply and demand for soda ash still exists. Opportunities to short at high levels after the weakening of macro - disturbances can be considered [5]. 1.2 Glass - Supply: The daily melting volume of float glass was 15.96 tons, unchanged from July 31. There were a total of 296 glass production lines in China, with 223 in production and 73 cold - repaired and shut down. The daily melting volume of photovoltaic glass was 8.65 tons, unchanged week - on - week and down 20.55% year - on - year [6]. - Inventory: The total inventory of national float glass sample enterprises was 61.847 million weight cases, up 2.348 million weight cases week - on - week, or 3.95% week - on - week and down 8.18% year - on - year. The inventory days were 26.4 days, 0.9 days more than the previous period [6]. - Demand: As of July 31, 2025, the average order days of national deep - processing sample enterprises was 9.55 days, up 2.7% week - on - week and down 1.55% year - on - year [6]. - Core Logic: The spot market price of float glass was weak this week, with the national weekly average price at 1,221 yuan/ton, down 7 yuan/ton week - on - week. Recently, the supply of float glass has remained stable. Under the pressure of the release of intermediate goods, the inventory of glass enterprises has increased week - on - week. On the demand side, the operating rate of LOW - E glass sample enterprises was 76.8%, which increased slightly week - on - week but was still at a relatively low level year - on - year. The enthusiasm of downstream buyers was weak. In general, the current glass still faces weak demand and intermediate shipment pressure. It is expected that the futures price of glass may continue to fluctuate weakly. The impact of macro - policies should be followed up [6]. 2. Variety Details Decomposition 2.1 Market Review - Spot Price - Soda Ash: The domestic spot price of soda ash fluctuated downward. As of August 7, 2025, the market price of heavy soda ash in Central China was 1,300 yuan/ton, and the market price of light soda ash was 1,200 yuan/ton, with a price difference of 100 yuan/ton between light and heavy soda ash; in North China, the market price of heavy soda ash was 1,350 yuan/ton, and the market price of light soda ash was 1,300 yuan/ton, with a price difference of 50 yuan/ton between light and heavy soda ash [11]. - Futures Price: The main contract price of soda ash fluctuated weakly. As of August 7, 2025, the basis of soda ash in the Shahe area was - 100 yuan/ton (down 100 yuan/ton week - on - week); the futures price of glass fell sharply, and the basis of glass in the Shahe area was 80 yuan/ton (up 109 yuan/ton week - on - week) [14]. 2.1 Market Review - Spread - As of August 7, 2025, the spread between the September and January contracts of soda ash was - 90 yuan/ton (down 12 yuan/ton week - on - week); the spread between the September and January contracts of glass was - 144 yuan/ton (down 37 yuan/ton week - on - week); the arbitrage spread between glass and soda ash was 281 yuan/ton (up 151 yuan/ton week - on - week) [20]. 2.2 Fundamentals - Supply - Soda Ash: The weekly output was 74.47 tons (up 4.49 tons week - on - week), with light soda ash output at 32.12 tons (up 2.01 tons) and heavy soda ash output at 42.35 tons (up 2.48 tons). The overhauled plants of soda ash factories have resumed production one after another, and it is expected that the supply of soda ash will increase [26]. - Glass: There were a total of 296 glass production lines in China, with 223 in production and 73 cold - repaired and shut down. The national daily output of float glass was 15.96 tons, unchanged from July 31. This week, the national float glass output was 1.117 million tons, up 0.16% week - on - week and down 5.94% year - on - year. The daily melting volume of photovoltaic glass was 8.65 tons, unchanged week - on - week and down 20.55% year - on - year [46]. 2.3 Fundamentals - Inventory - Soda Ash: As of August 7, 2025, soda ash enterprise inventory was 186.51 tons (up 1.33 tons), light soda ash inventory was 71.76 tons (up 0.86 tons), and heavy soda ash inventory was 114.75 tons (up 0.47 tons) [39]. - Glass: The total inventory of national float glass sample enterprises was 61.847 million weight cases, up 2.348 million weight cases week - on - week, or 3.95% week - on - week and down 8.18% year - on - year. The inventory days were 26.4 days, 0.9 days more than the previous period. As of July 31, 2025, the average order days of national deep - processing sample enterprises was 9.55 days, up 2.7% week - on - week and down 1.55% year - on - year [50]. 2.3 Fundamentals - Profit - Soda Ash: As of August 7, 2025, the theoretical profit of soda ash produced by the ammonia - soda method in China was 56 yuan/ton, down 0.9 yuan/ton week - on - week; the theoretical profit (double tons) of soda ash produced by the combined soda method in China was 68 yuan/ton, down 38 yuan/ton week - on - week [53].