晨会纪要 2025 第（144）期 发布日期：2025-08-08 | 中原期货研究咨询部 | 0371-58620081 | | --- | --- | | 0371-58620083 | | | 公司官方微信 | | 0371-58620081 0371-58620083 中原期货研究咨询部 公司官方微信 1 中原期货研究咨询部 | 化工 | 主力合约 | 2025/8/8 | 2025/8/7 | 涨跌 | 涨跌幅/% | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | | 8:00 | 15:00 | | | | | 焦煤 | 1,222.50 | 1,229.50 | -7.0 | -0.569 | | | 焦炭 | 1,642.50 | 1,667.50 | -25.0 | -1.499 | | | 天然橡胶 | 15,525.00 | 15,525.00 | 0 | 0 | | | 20号胶 | 12,360.00 | 12,350.00 | 10.0 | 0.081 | | | 塑料 | 7,309.00 | 7,297.00 | 12.0 | 0.164 ...

| 公司官方微信 | | --- | | 中原期货研究咨询部 0371-58620081 0371-58620083 | 1 中原期货研究咨询部 晨会纪要 2025 第（143）期 发布日期：2025-08-07 公司官方微信 中原期货研究咨询部 | 化工 | 主力合约 | 2025/8/7 | 2025/8/6 | 涨跌 | 涨跌幅/% | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | | 8:00 | 15:00 | | | | | 焦煤 | 1,223.50 | 1,221.00 | 2.50 | 0.205 | | | 焦炭 | 1,647.50 | 1,644.50 | 3.0 | 0.182 | | | 天然橡胶 | 15,430.00 | 15.495.00 | -65.0 | -0.419 | | | 20号胶 | 12,280.00 | 12,320.00 | -40.0 | -0.325 | | | 塑料 | 7,305.00 | 7,321.00 | -16.0 | -0.219 | | | 聚丙烯PP | 7,072.00 | 7,078.00 | ...

中原期货研究咨询部 晨会纪要 2025 第（143）期 发布日期：2025-08-06 | 中原期货研究咨询部 | 0371-58620081 | | --- | --- | | 0371-58620083 | | | 公司官方微信 | | 1 公司官方微信 中原期货研究咨询部 中原期货研究咨询部 宏观要闻 1、国务院办公厅印发《关于逐步推行免费学前教育的意见》明确，从 2025 年秋季学期起，免 除公办幼儿园学前一年在园儿童保育教育费，不含伙食费、住宿费、杂费等。同时，民办幼儿 园也可享受与公办幼儿园"同等"减免水平，高出免除水平的部分可继续向在园儿童家庭收取。 国新办周四举行国务院政策例行吹风会，介绍逐步推行免费学前教育政策有关情况。 2、上交所发布通报称，对在交易上纬新材股票过程中存在异常交易行为的投资者暂停账户交易。 8 月 5 日，上纬新材复牌后尾盘再度 20cm 涨停，今年以来累计涨幅已达到 1565.65%。当晚，上 纬新材再次发布风险提示称，若公司股价进一步上涨，可能再次申请连续停牌核查。 3、美国总统特朗普再次批评鲍威尔降息太迟，称可能很快宣布美联储新任主席。他已将潜在的 未来美联储主席范围 ...

Research Report Summary 1. Industry Investment Rating No industry investment rating is provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints - The overall market shows a complex situation with different trends in various sectors. In the agricultural products sector, most products are in a state of weak supply - demand balance or facing certain pressure. In the energy - chemical sector, prices are affected by factors such as production, demand, and international market conditions. The industrial metal sector is influenced by supply - demand relationships, macro - economic data, and policy factors. The financial market is affected by macro - economic data, policy expectations, and international market trends [6][9][14]. 3. Summary by Category 3.1 Chemicals - **Price Changes**: On August 5, 2025, compared with August 4, most chemical products' prices decreased. For example, the price of coking coal dropped from 1,141.00 to 1,126.00, a decrease of 15.0 with a decline rate of 1.315%. The price of asphalt decreased from 3,573.00 to 3,549.00, a decrease of 24.0 with a decline rate of 0.672%. Only natural rubber and 20 - number rubber prices increased slightly [6]. 3.2 Agricultural Products - **Price Changes**: Some agricultural products' prices increased, such as yellow soybean No.1, which rose from 4,117.00 to 4,133.00, an increase of 16.0 with an increase rate of 0.389%. However, some products' prices decreased, like white sugar, which dropped from 5,718.00 to 5,709.00, a decrease of 9.0 with a decline rate of 0.157% [6]. - **Market Analysis** - **Peanuts**: The peanut market price is basically stable, with a pattern of weak supply and demand. It is expected to have a strong - side shock but still maintain a downward trend [14]. - **Oils and Fats**: The total trading volume of oils and fats decreased by 57% compared with the previous trading day. The market lacks driving forces and is expected to have a weak - side shock [14]. - **Sugar**: The sugar futures showed a downward - shock trend. The Brazilian sugar production is about to enter the supply peak, and the domestic market needs to be vigilant against the pressure of processed sugar arrival in August [14]. - **Corn**: The corn futures weakened. The wheat substitution effect is prominent, and the import supply pressure increases. It is expected to have a weak - side shock [14]. - **Pigs**: The supply pressure of pigs still exists, and the demand improvement is not obvious. The market is expected to maintain an interval shock [15]. - **Eggs**: The egg spot market has differences between the north and the south. After the correction, the spot is expected to have limited further decline. The 08 - contract futures should avoid long positions and try short positions [15]. - **Cotton**: The ICE cotton continued to decline, and the Zhengzhou cotton rebounded slightly. The domestic cotton spot market has a weak foundation, and short - term long positions should be cautious [17]. 3.3 Macro - economic News - **Policy and Regulation**: The central bank, financial regulatory authorities, and the CSRC plan to further clarify the specific requirements for customer due diligence of financial institutions. Beijing has introduced 16 measures to promote the development of future industries, and Hainan has proposed 20 measures to develop future industries [9][10]. - **Economic Data**: In the first half of the year, China's service import and export volume was 38872.6 billion yuan, a year - on - year increase of 8%. It is expected that the new social financing in July will increase year - on - year. The preliminary estimate of the wholesale sales volume of new energy passenger vehicles in July is 118 million, a year - on - year increase of 25% [9][10]. - **International News**: Trump said he would significantly increase tariffs on India. The EU will suspend the implementation of tariff counter - measures against the US for six months. The probability of a US interest rate cut in September is high [10][11][24]. 3.4 Industrial Metals - **Copper and Aluminum**: The copper price continued to be under pressure, and the aluminum price is expected to continue the high - level adjustment due to factors such as supply increase and consumption off - season [21]. - **Alumina**: The alumina market is in an oversupply pattern, and the futures price is in a high - level adjustment, being vigilant against the impact of macro - emotions [21]. - **Steel Products**: The spot market of steel products has limited demand in the off - season. The prices of rebar and hot - rolled coils are affected by macro - emotions and raw material prices, and they are in a weak - side shock to find the bottom [21]. - **Ferroalloys**: The supply of ferrosilicon and ferromanganese continues to increase, and the demand is weak. The market is affected by macro - policy expectations, and it is recommended to adopt a range - shock strategy [22]. - **Lithium Carbonate**: The lithium carbonate market is under high - supply pressure. It is recommended to wait and see. If it effectively stands above 70,000 yuan, a small - position long position can be tried [23]. 3.5 Options and Finance - **Stock Index Futures and Options**: On August 4, the A - share market showed different trends. The trend investors can pay attention to the strength - weakness arbitrage opportunities among varieties, and the volatility investors can sell wide - straddle options to short volatility. The short - term adjustment of the stock index does not need to be worried, and the medium - term upward trend remains unchanged [23][24].

纯碱玻璃周报——2025.08.04 中原期货研究咨询部 作者：申文 执业证书编号：F03117458 投资咨询编号：Z0022654 shenwen_qh@ccnew.com 0371-58620081 01 周度观点汇总 3 1.1 纯碱周度观点——宏观扰动下商品氛围回落 品种 主要逻辑 策略建议 风险提示 纯碱 1.供应 装置开工率80.27%（环比-2.75%），氨碱法86.41%（环比-1.29%），联碱法67.86%（-4.40%)； 周产量69.98万吨（环比-2.40万吨），轻碱产量30.11万吨（-1.38万吨），重碱产量39.87万吨 （-1.02万吨）。 2.需求 纯碱表需76.86万吨（+0.38万吨），轻碱表需35.03万吨（-0.54万吨），重碱表需41.83万吨 （+0.92万吨）。 3.库存 纯碱企业库存179.58万吨（+1.22万吨），轻碱库存69.30万吨（-0.21万吨），重碱库存 110.28万吨（+1.43万吨）。 4.核心逻辑 本周纯碱现货价格稳中偏强运行，近期碱厂检修装置陆续复产，预计纯碱供应将有所回升。 需求端，纯碱表需环比小幅增加，前期待发订单支撑下碱厂库存 ...

【中原化工】 关注秋季肥及出口兑现情况 ——尿素周报2025.08.04 中原期货研究咨询部 作者：申文 执业证书编号：F03117458 投资咨询编号：Z0022654 shenwen_qh@ccnew.com 0371-58620081 01 周度观点汇总 1.1 尿素周度观点——关注秋季肥及出口兑现情况 | 品种 | 主要逻辑 | 策略建议 | 风险提示 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | 1. 供应：近期检修装置较多，供应端减量明显； | | | | | 2. 需求：农业追肥需求结束，关注秋季肥生产情况； | | | | | 3. 库存：上游尿素企业库存环比由降转增； | | | | | 4. 成本与利润：煤炭价格稳中偏强，尿素利润环比下降； | | | | | 5. 基差与价差：9-1价差偏弱运行，09基差变化有限。 | | 新 增 产 能 投 放 | | | | UR2509合约下 | （下行风险）， | | 6. | 整体逻辑： | | | | | 本周国内尿素现货市场价格偏弱运行，8月份装置检修与复产并存，预计日产将维持19-20 | 方关注1680-1700元 | ...

| 品种 | 主要逻辑 | 策略建议 | 风险点 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | 供应：厂家利润修复，开工率回升带动产量增幅扩大。 | | | | | 需求：铁水产量高位，季节性小幅回调。 | | | | | 库存：厂库回升近6%。 | | | | | | 投机不宜追 | | | | 成本：周内原料持稳。 | 涨，下方支 | 反内卷政 | | | | 撑关注5500- | 策、中美 | | 硅铁 | 基差：盘面冲高回落，基差再度转正。 | | 贸易谈判 | | | 总结：上周以焦煤为主的前期涨幅较大商品，出现大幅减仓下跌行情，叠加政治 | 5600附近。 | 等政策不 | | | | 厂家择机卖 | | | | 局会议后政策表述温和等因素，工业品周内以回调为主，硅铁周内冲高回落，回 | 保。 | 确定性 | | | 吐前两周所有涨幅。基本面看，周产量继续回升，需求维持淡季偏弱格局，且预 | | | | | 期依旧偏差。近期宏观政策预期主导，商品波动风险加剧，合金也受商品大环境 | | | | | 影响，产业卖保思路不变，但注意资金控制，投机建议谨慎操作，以区间震荡思 | | | ...

美国新一轮关税落地，铜铝价格承压调整 ——铜铝周报2025.08.04 作者： 刘培洋 联系方式：0371-58620083 电子邮箱：liupy_qh@ccnew.com 执业证书编号：F0290318 交易咨询编号：Z0011155 本期观点 | 品种 | 主要逻辑 | 策略建议 | 风险提示 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | 1、宏观面：国内7月制造业PMI指数回落；美国新一轮关税政策落地， | 沪铜2509合约 | | | | 对市场形成一定压力。 | 上方参考压力 | 1、国内外宏 | | | 2、基本面：供应端因国产零单现货不足叠加票据波动限制流通，持 | 位80000元/吨 | 观政策及经 | | 铜 | 货商挺价意愿强烈维持市场紧张。需求端，铜价虽有回调但仍处于 | 一线，下方参 | 济数据变化； | | | 高位区间及淡季因素下需求表现疲软。 | 考支撑位 | 2、国外铜矿 | | | 3、整体逻辑：美国对铜加征关税落地，COMEX铜大幅回落修复价差， | 76000元/吨一 | 供应因素。 | | | 国内铜价短期也承压走弱，建议等待价格逐步企稳。 | 线。 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The domestic manufacturing PMI index declined in July, and the new round of US tariff policies put pressure on the market. The supply in the East China region remained stable this week with no planned device maintenance, resulting in sufficient supply. Non - aluminum demand did not improve significantly, and the off - season continued. The price of liquid caustic soda in Shandong Province may decline. Although caustic soda has strong downward support, market sentiment has cooled recently, with sharp price fluctuations. The near - month contracts will face certain warehouse receipt pressure. It is recommended to focus on the 9 - 11 reverse spread. The upper reference pressure level for the caustic soda 2509 contract is 2650 yuan/ton, and the lower support level is 2350 yuan/ton [4]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Market Review - **Spot Market**: The price of liquid caustic soda in Shandong showed a weak trend, and the basis of 32% liquid caustic soda in Shandong widened. From July 2024 to July 2025, data on the price of 32% and 50% ion - membrane caustic soda, flake caustic soda, and the price difference between different regions were presented. During the period from July 25th to July 31st, 2025, the prices of sea salt, 32% and 50% ion - membrane caustic soda, and 98% flake caustic soda remained unchanged, while the price of liquid chlorine increased by 42.86% to - 200 yuan/ton, the price of alumina increased by 0.63% to 3215 yuan/ton, the price of viscose staple fiber increased by 0.79% to 12700 yuan/ton, and the price of battery - grade lithium hydroxide increased by 1.46% to 69500 yuan/ton [9][12][18]. - **Futures Market**: From July 2024 to July 2025, data on the futures closing prices of caustic soda, soda ash, alumina, PVC, and the number of warehouse receipts were presented [15]. 3.2 Market Analysis - **Supply Side: Production and Operating Rate**: From January to July 2025, the average operating rate of sample caustic soda enterprises with a capacity of 200,000 tons or more was 83.9%, a decrease of 0.1% compared to the previous period. The operating rates in North China, South China, and East China increased, while those in the Northwest and Northeast decreased. Shandong's operating rate increased by 0.5% to 87.9%. It is expected that the operating rate will be around 83.6%, and the weekly production will be about 808,600 tons. Multiple enterprises in different regions have planned maintenance, such as Leshan Fuhua in Sichuan from August 1st to August 16th, and Shandong Hualu from August 8th with the restart date to be determined [23][24]. - **Downstream: Alumina**: As of July 31st, 2025, the built - in capacity of alumina in China was 114.8 million tons, and the operating capacity was 94.8 million tons. The supply of alumina increased, with a significant increase in the north and tight supply in the south due to roasting furnace maintenance [27]. - **Inventory**: As of July 31st, 2025, the factory inventory of fixed liquid caustic soda sample enterprises with a capacity of 200,000 tons or more was 424,200 wet tons, a month - on - month increase of 3.87% and a year - on - year increase of 10.9%. The storage capacity ratio decreased by 0.37% compared to the previous period. The inventory trends varied in different regions, with an upward trend in North China, a decline in South China and Central China, an increase in East China and Southwest China, and a decrease in the Northwest [33]. - **Liquid Chlorine**: As of July 31st, 2025, the average weekly price of liquid chlorine in Shandong increased by 30.36% to - 279 yuan/ton. As of August 1st, 2025, the operating rate of PVC in China was 76.84%, an increase of 0.05% compared to the previous period, and it is expected to reach 78.39% this week. The average weekly profit of chlor - alkali enterprises in Shandong was 233 yuan/ton, a month - on - month increase of 71.02% [37][38].

Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content found Core Viewpoints - This week, the A - share market rose first and then fell, with daily trading volume approaching 2 trillion at one point. Small - and medium - cap stocks outperformed large - cap stocks. The implied volatility of index options declined, and investors are advised to focus on the strength - weakness arbitrage opportunities among varieties and sell wide - straddles to short volatility [2] Summary by Directory 1. CSI 300 Index Options (IO) - The CSI 300 index's weekly line encountered resistance at the 250 - week moving average, with the Wednesday color K - line indicator remaining red; the daily line had two consecutive negative candles, and the daily three - color K - line indicator turned green [11][14] - The current - month contract of IF futures was at a larger discount to the underlying, and the discount of the next - month contract to the current - month contract also widened [22][25] - The trading volume of IO options increased, and the open interest rebounded. Both the options trading volume PCR and the options open interest PCR decreased, and the implied volatility declined. The underlying index fell below the strike - price range of the maximum open interest of call and put options [30][33][36] - The CSI 300 stock index futures' trading volume shrank, and the open interest decreased [27] - The 2508 contract of CSI 300 index options had the maximum open - interest strike prices of 4100 for call options and 4150 for put options, with the option pain point at 4100 [16] 2. CSI 1000 Index Options (MO) - The weekly line of the CSI 1000 index closed negative, with the Wednesday color K - line indicator remaining red; the daily line fell below the 10 - day moving average, and the daily three - color K - line indicator turned gray [40][43] - The current - month contract of IM futures was at a larger discount to the underlying, and the discount of the next - month contract to the current - month contract also widened [50][53] - The trading volume of MO options increased, and the open interest rebounded. Both the options trading volume PCR and the options open interest PCR decreased, and the implied volatility declined. The maximum open - interest strike prices of call and put options both moved down [59][62][65] - The trading volume of CSI 1000 stock index futures increased, and the open interest increased [56] - The 2508 contract of CSI 1000 index options had the maximum open - interest strike prices of 6700 for call options and 6400 for put options, with the option pain point at 6600 [45] 3. SSE 50 Index Options (HO) - The weekly line of the SSE 50 index encountered resistance at the 250 - week moving average, with the Wednesday color K - line indicator remaining red; the daily line fell below the 20 - day moving average, and the daily three - color K - line indicator turned green [69][72] - The current - month contract of IH futures changed to a discount to the underlying, while the next - month contract remained at a premium to the current - month contract [80][82] - The trading volume of HO options increased, and the open interest rebounded. The options trading volume PCR and the options open interest PCR first increased and then decreased, and the implied volatility declined. The maximum open - interest strike prices of call and put options both moved down [87][89][91] - The trading volume of SSE 50 stock index futures increased, but the open interest decreased [85] - The 2508 contract of SSE 50 index options had the maximum open - interest strike prices of 2800 for call options and 2700 for put options, with the option pain point at 2750 [74]