铁水微降，原料支撑减弱 ——周报20260202 投 资 咨 询 编 号 ：Z0020978 研 究 所 ：林娜 联 系 方 式 ：0371-58620083 电 子 邮 箱 ：linna_qh@ccnew.com 执 业 证 书 编 号 ：F03099603 | 本期观点——铁矿石 品种 | 主要逻辑 | 策略建议 | 风险点 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | 供应：澳洲和巴西铁矿发运2521万吨（环比+5.30%，同比+9%）,铁矿石45港 | | | | | 口到港量2484.7万吨（环比-1.79%，同比+41.02%）. | | | | | 需求：铁水日产227.98万吨（环比-0.12万吨，同比-0.46万吨 ），铁矿石45 | | | | | 港口疏港量332.31万吨（环比+6.94%，同比+23.69%）。 | | | | | 库存：铁矿石45港口库存17022.26万吨（环比+1.53%，同比+10.59%）,247家 | 单边： | | | | | | 铁水超预 | | 铁矿 | 钢企进口铁矿库存9968.59万吨（环比+6.18%，同比+5.32%）。 | ...

淡季基本面继续转弱，钢价承压回落 ——周报20260202 投 资 咨 询 编 号 ：Z0020978 研究所 ：林娜 联 系 方 式 ：0371-58620083 电 子 邮 箱 ：linna_qh@ccnew.com 执 业 证 书 编 号 ：F03099603 | | 本期观点——螺纹钢、热卷 | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 品种 | 主要逻辑 | 策略建议 | 风险点 | | | 供应：螺纹钢周产量199.83万吨（环比+0.14%，同比+12.47%），全国热卷周产 | | | | | 量309.21万吨（环比+1.24%，同比-4.40%）。 | | | | | 消费：螺纹钢表观消费176.4万吨（环比-4.92%，同比+125%），热卷表观消费 | | | | | 311.41万吨（环比+0.47%，同比+14.78%）。 | | | | | 库存：螺纹总库存475.53万吨（环比+5.18%，同比-27.19%），热卷总库存 | | | | | 355.58万吨（环比-0.61%，同比-8.5%）。 | | | | | | | 宏观超 | | 螺纹 | 成本 ...

中原期货研究咨询部 中原期货研究咨询部 | 化工 | 主力合约 | 2026/2/3 | 2026/2/2 | 涨跌 | 涨跌幅/% | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | | 8:00 | 15:00 | | | | | 焦煤 | 1,175.00 | 1,141.50 | 33.50 | 2.935 | | | 焦炭 | 1,729.00 | 1,680.50 | 48.50 | 2.886 | | | 天然橡胶 | 16,090.00 | 15,980.00 | 110.0 | 0.688 | | | 20号胶 | 12,995.00 | 12,925.00 | 70.0 | 0.542 | | | 塑料 | 6,902.00 | 6,878.00 | 24.0 | 0.349 | | | 聚丙烯PP | 6,734.00 | 6,714.00 | 20.0 | 0.298 | | | (PTA) | 5,142.00 | 5.092.00 | 50.0 | 0.982 | | | PVC | 5,059.00 | 5,014.00 | 45.0 | 0. ...

作 者：杨江涛 执业证书编号：F03117249 交易咨询编号：Z0022644 联 系 方 式：0371-58620082 本周观点 | 品种 | 逻辑驱动 | 策略及风险提示 | | --- | --- | --- | | | 【现货市场】：柳州现货价周内上涨0.57%至5320元/吨，市场情绪谨慎偏弱。基 | | | | 差收窄至72元/吨，环比大幅下降34.55%，显示期货反弹力度强于现货。 | | | | | 预计未来1-2周， | | | 【期货市场】：主力合约周度上涨1.31%，收于5248元/吨，周内波动加剧，1月29 | | | | 日单日涨幅达1.56%。持仓量环比下降3.11%至45.2万手，显示反弹后资金离场观 | 郑糖主力合约将 | | | | 在成本支撑与供 | | | 望。 | 应压力的夹击下， | | | 【供应方面】：国内处于压榨高峰期，本榨季增产预期强烈。仓单及有效预报合 | | | | 计环比增长2.39%至14208张，反映现货供应压力正逐步向盘面传导。 | 于5150-5300元/ | | | 【需求方面】：数据未提供明确的周度消费量或订单量变化。市场看跌比例仍高 | ...

碳酸锂市场高位暴跌，监管降温与高库存压 力共振 --碳酸锂周报2026-01-26至2026-01-30 作 者：杨江涛 执业证书编号：F03117249 交易咨询编号：Z0022644 联 系 方 式：0371-58620082 本周观点 | 品种 | 逻辑驱动 | 策略及风险提示 | | --- | --- | --- | | | 【现货市场】：现货价格同步走弱，电池级碳酸锂周内下跌5.62%至159500元/吨， | | | | 市场情绪急剧转弱。期货深度贴水，基差达11300元/吨，环比大幅收窄190.26%， | | | | 反映期货跌幅远超现货。 | | | | 【期货市场】：主力合约价格剧烈波动，周度暴跌10.99%至148200元/吨，周内振 | | | | | 预计未来1-2周， | | | 幅巨大。持仓量环比下降15.07%至372601手，显示多头资金在监管压力下撤离， | 碳酸锂市场在消 | | | 市场博弈降温。 | 化监管影响和高 | | | 【供应方面】：供应端扰动持续，但产能利用率维持87.14%高位。12月国内锂盐 | | | | 厂库存环比大增33.5%，仓单总量周环比增长 ...

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the document Core Viewpoints of the Report - For steel products, the inventory of five major steel products has started to increase. Rebar production has increased while demand has decreased, with inventory rising month - on - month, but the inventory accumulation pressure is limited due to the low absolute quantity. The decline in hot - rolled coil inventory has narrowed, with factory inventory decreasing and social inventory rising, and the short - term inventory contradiction is limited. Steel prices are expected to fluctuate within a range [3]. - For iron ore, the supply from overseas (Australia and Brazil) has decreased month - on - month, but the arrival volume has increased. The daily output of hot metal continues to rise, supporting the restocking demand. However, port inventory has further increased, and the price is expected to be relatively strong in the short term, but the upside is limited [4]. - For coking coal and coke, supply has gradually recovered as some coal mines resumed production, and downstream transactions have improved. With the continuous increase in the daily output of hot metal, there is a certain support for coking coal and coke, and they are expected to operate in a strong - oscillating manner [5]. Summary by Directory 1. Market Review - Last week, the macro - environment improved, but the industrial supply - demand structure weakened. Rebar inventory started to increase, and the decline in hot - rolled coil inventory narrowed. Steel prices lacked upward momentum and showed an oscillating pattern [9]. 2. Steel Supply - Demand Analysis - **Supply**: Rebar weekly output was 191.04 tons (up 1.50% month - on - month and down 4.20% year - on - year), and national hot - rolled coil weekly output was 305.51 tons (up 0.33% month - on - month and up 0.53% year - on - year). Both blast furnace and electric furnace production of rebar increased, and the operating rates of blast furnaces and electric furnaces also increased. The profits of rebar and hot - rolled coils both increased [14][15][25]. - **Demand**: Rebar apparent consumption was 174.96 tons (down 12.71% month - on - month and down 5.50% year - on - year), and hot - rolled coil apparent consumption was 308.34 tons (down 0.78% month - on - month and up 2.41% year - on - year). The demand for both rebar and hot - rolled coils decreased [33]. - **Inventory**: Rebar inventory started to increase, with both factory and social inventories rising. Hot - rolled coil inventory decline slowed down, with factory inventory decreasing and social inventory rising [34][39]. - **Downstream**: In the real estate market, both the commercial housing and land markets showed a month - on - month decline. In the automotive market, in November 2025, automobile production and sales continued to grow both month - on - month and year - on - year [44][47]. 3. Iron Ore Supply - Demand Analysis - **Supply**: Iron ore shipments from Australia and Brazil were 2606.4 tons (down 5% month - on - month and down 0.7% year - on - year), and the arrival volume at 45 ports was 2920.4 tons (up 5.95% month - on - month and up 24.59% year - on - year) [56]. - **Demand**: The daily output of hot metal was 229.5 tons (up 2.07 tons month - on - month and up 5.13 tons year - on - year), and the port clearance volume at 45 ports was 323.27 tons (down 0.60% month - on - month and down 0.92% year - on - year) [61]. - **Inventory**: The inventory at 45 ports was 16275.26 tons (up 1.91% month - on - month and up 8.10% year - on - year), and the imported iron ore inventory of 247 steel enterprises was 8989.59 tons (up 0.48% month - on - month and down 10.77% year - on - year) [66]. 4. Coking Coal and Coke Supply - Demand Analysis - **Supply**: The operating rate of coking coal mines was 85.34% (up 7.17% month - on - month and down 2.52% year - on - year), and the average daily Mongolian coal customs clearance volume was 16.90 tons (down 11.27% month - on - month and up 10.11% year - on - year) [72]. - **Demand**: The daily coking coal auction transaction rate was 95.12% (up 21.42% month - on - month and up 37.72% year - on - year), and the weekly coking coal auction transaction rate was 85.85% (up 24.26% week - on - week and up 32.89% year - on - year) [75]. - **Coking Enterprises**: The profit per ton of coke for independent coking plants was - 45 yuan/ton (down 31 yuan/ton month - on - month and down 38 yuan/ton year - on - year), and the capacity utilization rate was 72.69% (up 1.35% month - on - month and down 0.63% year - on - year) [81]. - **Inventory**: Coking coal port inventory decreased month - on - month, and coking plant inventory increased. Coke port inventory increased slightly, and coking plant inventory decreased [82][88]. - **Spot Price**: After the fourth round of coke price cuts was implemented, the price remained stable, and the game between steel and coking enterprises continued [94]. 5. Spread Analysis - The basis of rebar and hot - rolled coil both contracted, and the 5 - 10 spread of rebar and hot - rolled coil slightly contracted. The hot - rolled coil to rebar spread oscillated narrowly, and the 1 - 5 spread of iron ore slightly contracted [100][105].

中原期货研究咨询部 晨会纪要 2026 第（21）期 发布日期：2026-02-02 | 中原期货研究咨询部 | 0371-58620081 | | --- | --- | | 0371-58620083 | | | 公司官方微信 | | 0371-58620083 公司官方微信 1 中原期货研究咨询部 | 化工 | 主力合约 | 2026/2/2 | 2026/2/1 | 涨跌 | 涨跌幅/% | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | | 8:00 | 15:00 | | | | | 焦煤 | 1,181.00 | 1,155.50 | 25.50 | 2.20:7 | | | 焦炭 | 1,733.00 | 1,721.50 | 11.50 | 0.668 | | | 天然橡胶 | 16,175.00 | 16,360.00 | -185.0 | -1.131 | | | 20号胶 | 13,040.00 | 13,235.00 | -195.0 | -1.473 | | | 塑料 | 6,935.00 | 7,014.00 | -79.0 | -1.126 ...

Report Title - "Macro Favorable but Demand Constrained, Steel Prices Fluctuate - Weekly Report 20260126" [1] Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Core Viewpoints - The overall inventory of the five major steel products increased due to the weakening of terminal demand. The main inventory - accumulating variety was rebar, with increased production and decreased demand, showing off - season pressure. Although the inventory increased, the absolute inventory was still low. Hot - rolled coil production and demand both declined, and the inventory decline slowed down. Steel exports showed certain resilience. In the short term, the contradiction of steel inventory accumulation was limited, and the raw material end did not show significant negative feedback pressure. Steel prices were supported but lacked strong driving force and would fluctuate [3]. Summary by Directory 01 Market Review - Supported by macro - favorable factors, steel prices first fell and then rose. The weekly price slightly declined, and the basis narrowed. The inventory of rebar increased, and the decline of hot - rolled coil inventory narrowed. Terminal demand was limited [9]. - Specific price and inventory data: For example, the spot price of rebar in Shanghai was 3270 yuan/ton with a weekly change, and the futures warehouse receipt of rebar decreased by 43193. The inventory of rebar and hot - rolled coil had different changes in factory and social inventories [9]. 02 Steel Supply and Demand Analysis Production - Rebar weekly output was 199.55 tons (up 4.86% week - on - week and 14.60% year - on - year), and the national hot - rolled coil weekly output was 305.41 tons (down 0.96% week - on - week and 5.34% year - on - year). Rebar blast furnace output increased, and electric furnace output decreased. The blast furnace and electric furnace operating rates both slightly declined [15][16][19]. Profit - Rebar profit slightly decreased to +61 yuan/ton (down 11 yuan/ton week - on - week and 53 yuan/ton year - on - year), and hot - rolled coil profit slightly recovered to +1 yuan/ton (up 5 yuan/ton week - on - week and down 30 yuan/ton year - on - year) [24][26]. Demand - The apparent consumption of rebar was 185.52 tons (down 2.53% week - on - week and up 58.69% year - on - year), and the apparent consumption of hot - rolled coil was 309.96 tons (down 1.34% week - on - week and up 2.44% year - on - year). The demand for both rebar and hot - rolled coil declined [27][31]. Inventory - Rebar inventory increased, with both factory and social inventories rising. The total rebar inventory was 452.1 tons (up 3.20 week - on - week and down 6.44% year - on - year). The decline of hot - rolled coil inventory narrowed, with a slight increase in factory inventory and a decrease in social inventory. The total hot - rolled coil inventory was 357.78 tons (down 1.26% week - on - week and up 6.32% year - on - year) [32][36][37]. Downstream - In the real - estate sector, the weekly sales area of commercial housing in 30 large - and medium - sized cities decreased by 7.80% week - on - week and 32.32% year - on - year, and the land transaction area in 100 large - and medium - sized cities decreased by 49% week - on - week and 69% year - on - year. In the automotive sector, in December 2025, automobile production and sales decreased both month - on - month and year - on - year [41][43][44]. 03 Spread Analysis - The basis of rebar and hot - rolled coil slightly widened, and the 5 - 10 spread of rebar and hot - rolled coil fluctuated narrowly. The coil - to - rebar spread widened, and the 5 - 9 spread of coking coal slightly widened [48][53]

铁水微增，原料支撑有限 ——周报20260126 投 资 咨 询 编 号 ：Z0020978 研 究 所 ：林娜 联 系 方 式 ：0371-58620083 电 子 邮 箱 ：linna_qh@ccnew.com 执 业 证 书 编 号 ：F03099603 | 本期观点——铁矿石 品种 | 主要逻辑 | 策略建议 | 风险点 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | 供应：澳洲和巴西铁矿发运2394.3万吨（环比+6.57%，同比+37.92%），铁矿 石45港口到港量2530万吨（环比-4.88%，同比-5.77%）。 | | | | | 需求：铁水日产228.01万吨（环比+0.09万吨，同比+2.65万吨 ），铁矿石45 | | | | | 港口疏港量310.73万吨（环比-2.86%，同比-5.88%）。 | | | | | 库存：铁矿石45港口库存16766.53万吨（环比+1.28%，同比+9.10%），247家 | 单边： | 铁水超预 | | 铁矿 | 钢企进口铁矿库存9388.82万吨（环比+1.37%，同比-13.44%）。 | 震荡偏弱 | 期、宏观 | | | ...

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content Core View of the Report - The current market is in a strong unilateral upward trend driven by news and expectations. The core contradiction lies in the intense game between the supply side (contraction expectation under policy disturbances) and the demand side (short - term stocking and export expectations vs. weak terminal data). The futures price has rapidly broken through under the push of funds, but the spot price has difficulty following up, with a deep basis discount, cost - line suppression, and inventory accumulation, all indicating insufficient fundamental support and increasing high - level volatility risks [2] Summary by Relevant Catalogs Lithium Salt Market Introduction - **Lithium Salt Price Changes**: The battery - grade lithium carbonate spot price increased by 8.16% week - on - week to 169,000 yuan/ton, and the main futures contract closing price soared by 24.16% week - on - week to 181,520 yuan/ton. The prices of various lithium salts such as lithium hydroxide also showed varying degrees of increase [2][5] - **Lithium Salt Premium Changes**: Different raw material sources and enterprises have different premium changes. For example, the premium of the pyroxene raw material increased by 200 yuan, while the premium of the mica raw material decreased by 100 yuan [8] Lithium Salt Fundamentals Supply - **China's Lithium Carbonate Production**: The capacity utilization rate of lithium carbonate remains at a high level of 87.14%, but the policies of Jiangxi mica mines and overseas mines continuously disturb the market, forming a supply contraction expectation [2] - **Production in Different Regions and from Different Raw Materials**: Not detailed in the provided content - **China's Lithium Hydroxide Production**: Not detailed in the provided content Demand - **Mid - and Down - stream Consumption**: Downstream is supported by pre - Spring Festival stocking and the potential "rush to export" effect, but the year - on - year decline in retail sales of terminal new energy vehicles is a concern, showing a contradiction between "not off - season in the off - season" and long - term weakness [2] Import and Export - **Lithium Ore Import**: The available inventory of port lithium ore traders increased by 38.41% week - on - week to 19.1 million tons, indicating sufficient import raw material supply. The adjustment expectation of export policies may stimulate short - term export demand [2] - **Lithium Ore Transportation and Cost**: The freight rates from South Africa, Zimbabwe, and Nigeria for both bulk and container transportation remained unchanged this week [28] - **Lithium Carbonate and Lithium Hydroxide Import and Export**: Not detailed in the provided content - **Seasonal Changes in Import and Export**: Not detailed in the provided content Inventory - **Lithium Carbonate Social Inventory**: Not detailed in the provided content - **Lithium Carbonate Warehouse Receipts**: The total number of lithium carbonate warehouse receipts increased by 698 to 28,156, with some warehouses showing significant inventory increases, such as the Jiangsu Benniu Port warehouse increasing by 21.95% [41] Cost and Profit - **Lithium Carbonate**: The production cost of externally purchased lithium concentrate increased by 14.81% week - on - week to 181,525 yuan/ton, which is the same as the futures price, with a production profit of - 12,525 yuan/ton. The profit of the mica route narrowed by 76.41% week - on - week to 1,689 yuan/ton [2] Lithium Battery Fundamentals Market - **Cathode Materials**: Not detailed in the provided content Supply - **Cathode Material Production**: Not detailed in the provided content - **Electrolyte Price and Production**: Not detailed in the provided content Demand - **Cathode Material Consumption**: Not detailed in the provided content Import and Export - **Lithium Battery Materials and Batteries**: Not detailed in the provided content Cost and Profit - **Ternary Materials**: Not detailed in the provided content Lithium Battery Recycling - Not detailed in the provided content New Energy Vehicles - **Production and Sales**: Not detailed in the provided content - **Other Important Data**: Not detailed in the provided content