假期累库明显，钢价承压回落 ——周报20260224 投 资 咨 询 编 号 ：Z0020978 研 究 所 ：林娜 联 系 方 式 ：0371-58620083 电 子 邮 箱 ：linna_qh@ccnew.com 执 业 证 书 编 号 ：F03099603 | 本期观点——螺纹钢、热卷 品种 | 主要逻辑 | 策略建议 | 风险点 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | 供应：螺纹钢周产量170.38万吨（环比-4.08%，同比+4.29%），全国热卷周产量 | | | | | 309.81万吨（环比+0.67%，同比-5.50%）。 | | | | | 消费：螺纹钢表观消费41.16万吨（环比-59.61%，同比-75.59%），热卷表观消 | | | | | 费246.73万吨（环比-16.70%，同比-23.58%）。 | | | | | 库存：螺纹总库存716.04万吨（环比+22.02%，同比-15.53%），热卷总库存 | | | | | 433.85万吨（环比+17.01%，同比-0.17%）。 | | | | 螺纹 | 成本：铁水日产230.49万吨，同比去年回 ...

终端需求尚未启动，原料短时承压 ——周报20260224 投 资 咨 询 编 号 ：Z0020978 研 究 所 ：林娜 联 系 方 式 ：0371-58620083 电 子 邮 箱 ：linna_qh@ccnew.com 执 业 证 书 编 号 ：F03099603 | 本期观点——铁矿石 品种 | 主要逻辑 | 策略建议 | 风险点 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | 供应：澳洲和巴西铁矿发运1948.8万吨（环比-22.70%，同比-29.65%），铁 | | | | | 矿石45港口到港量2152.4万吨（环比-10.98%，同比+2.36%） 。 | | | | | 需求：铁水日产230.49万吨（环比+1.91万吨，同比+2.98万吨 ），铁矿石45 | | | | | 港口疏港量351.19万吨（环比+2.96%，同比+17.98%）。 | | | | | | 单边： | 铁水超预 | | 铁矿 | 库存：铁矿石45港口库存16946.32万吨（环比-1.13%，同比+11.33%），114 | 震荡偏弱 | 期、宏观 | | | 家钢企铁矿石平均可用30.85天 （ ...

碳酸锂市场巨幅震荡，供应收缩预期与累库 担忧激烈博弈 --碳酸锂周报2026-02-02至2026-02-06 作 者：杨江涛 执业证书编号：F03117249 交易咨询编号：Z0022644 联 系 方 式：0371-58620082 本周观点 | 品种 | 逻辑驱动 | 策略及风险提示 | | --- | --- | --- | | | 【现货市场】：现货价格同步下跌，电池级碳酸锂均价报149,000元/吨，与期货 | | | | 主力合约收盘价（132,920元/吨）存在超1.6万元/吨的高基差，反映出现货市场 | | | | 相对坚挺但期货情绪极度悲观。 | | | | 【期货市场】：主力合约价格剧烈波动，周内最高触及152,820元/吨，最低下探 | 节前资金行为与 | | | 124,100元/吨，周度收盘下跌约9.0%。持仓量从周初的34.8万手降至32.9万手， | 消息面扰动将主 | | | 减少约5.6%，显示资金在节前离场。日内波动率极高，2月6日振幅达11.4%。 | 导盘面，趋势性 | | | 【供应方面】：碳酸锂周度产能利用率维持85.72%高位，环比持平。市场传闻江 | 方向需等 ...

| 类别 | 地区 | 上周五 | 本周五 | 周度价格变动 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 期货 | 11号糖连续合约收盘价 | 13. 78 | 14.3 | 3.77% | | | 郑糖主力合约收盘价 | 5211 | | #VALUE ! | | 现货 | 南宁现价 | 5310 | | #VALUE ! | | | 柳州现价 | 5300 | | #VALUE ! | | | 昆明现价 | 5110 | | #VALUE ! | | | 加工企业:目照凌云海现价 | 5770 | | #VALUE ! | | 基産 | 柳州糖和主力合约基差 | 89 | | #VALUE ! | | 合車 | 仓単数量 | 14461 | | #VALUE ! #VALUE ! | | | 有效预报 | 717 | | | | | 合计: 仓单+有效预报 | 15178 | | #VALUE ! | | | 多头 | 402819 | 425573 | 5.65% | | CFTC非商业持仓 | 空头 | 167418 | 171981 | 2. 73% | | | 净多 | ...

晨会纪要 2026 第（32）期 发布日期：2026-02-25 | 中原期货研究咨询部 | 0371-58620081 | | --- | --- | | 0371-58620083 | | | 公司官方微信 | | 公司官方微信 1 中原期货研究咨询部 中原期货研究咨询部 | 化工 | 主力合约 | 2026/2/25 | 2026/2/24 | 涨跌 | 涨跌幅/% | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | | 8:00 | 15:00 | | | | | 焦煤 | 1,108.50 | 1,101.50 | 7.0 | 0.635 | | | 焦炭 | 1,646.50 | 1,634.50 | 12.0 | 0.734 | | | 天然橡胶 | 17,180.00 | 17,030.00 | 150.0 | 0.881 | | | 20号胶 | 13,930.00 | 13,795.00 | 135.0 | 0.979 | | | 塑料 | 6,826.00 | 6,820.00 | 6.0 | 0.088 | | | 聚丙烯PP | 6,747.00 ...

中原期货研究咨询部 晨会纪要 2026 第（31）期 发布日期：2026-02-24 | 中原期货研究咨询部 | 0371-58620081 | | --- | --- | | 0371-58620083 | | | 公司官方微信 | | 中原期货研究咨询部 公司官方微信 1 4、美联储 1 月会议纪要显示决策层对利率未来走向存在巨大分歧，除了支持降息派和观望派， 纪要首次明确提到加息可能性讨论。大多数人警告，通胀下行进程可能比预期更慢、更不均衡。 | 化工 | 主力合约 | 2026/2/24 | 2026/2/23 | 涨跌 | 涨跌幅/% | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | | 8:00 | 15:00 | | | | | 焦煤 | 1,121.00 | 1,121.00 | 0 | 0 | | | 焦炭 | 1,682.00 | 1,682.00 | 0 | 0 | | | 天然橡胶 | 16,315.00 | 16,315.00 | 0 | 0 | | | 20号胶 | 13,180.00 | 13,180.00 | 0 | 0 | | | 塑料 ...

中原期货研究咨询部 晨会纪要 2026 第（30）期 发布日期：2026-02-13 | 中原期货研究咨询部 | | | --- | --- | | 0371-58620081 | 0371-58620083 | | 公司官方微信 | | 公司官方微信 1 中原期货研究咨询部 | 化工 | 主力合约 | 2026/2/13 | 2026/2/12 | 涨跌 | 涨跌幅/% | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | | 8:00 | 15:00 | | | | | 焦煤 | 1,121.00 | 1,120.00 | 1.0 | 0.089 | | | 焦炭 | 1,665.00 | 1,664.00 | 1.0 | 0.060 | | | 天然橡胶 | 16,485.00 | 16,450.00 | 35.0 | 0.213 | | | 20号胶 | 13,385.00 | 13,370.00 | 15.0 | 0.112 | | | 塑料 | 6,720.00 | 6,734.00 | -14.0 | -0.208 | | | 聚丙烯PP | 6,633.00 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The central bank will continue to implement a moderately loose monetary policy, and the overall liquidity will remain abundant [7]. - Global asset allocation is expected to gradually shift from a high - concentration allocation of US dollar assets to a more diversified layout in the next 3 - 5 years, and Chinese assets are favored by foreign institutions [8]. - Most commodities in the market are in a state of supply - demand game, with prices mainly in an interval - oscillating pattern, and it is recommended to operate lightly or wait and see before the Spring Festival [12][13][14][15][16][17][18][19][20]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Macro News - The central bank will continue to implement a moderately loose monetary policy, use various policy tools such as reserve requirement ratio cuts and interest rate cuts, and carry out regular treasury bond trading operations [7]. - Ray Dalio warns that the US is on the verge of a "fifth stage" of the imperial cycle, and suggests that gold should account for 5% - 15% of the investment portfolio [7]. - China encourages the cultivation and development of future industries to seize the high - ground of science and technology and industry [7]. - On Tuesday, the A - share market showed a narrow - range consolidation, with the Shanghai Composite Index rising 0.13% and achieving six consecutive positive days. The Hong Kong stock market also rose, and Chinese assets are favored by foreign institutions [8]. - Five departments jointly issued an opinion to strengthen the construction of information and communication capabilities to support the development of low - altitude infrastructure [9]. - Alphabet issued 100 - year bonds for the first time, with over 7 times over - subscription, and its global debt issuance exceeded $30 billion [9]. 3.2 Morning Meeting Views on Main Varieties 3.2.1 Agricultural Products - **Sugar**: The domestic sugar price is expected to maintain an interval - oscillating pattern, with potential for a pre - holiday corrective rebound. The upper pressure is around 5300 yuan, and the lower support is around 5250 yuan [12]. - **Corn**: The corn price has broken through the original prediction range. One can pay attention to the opportunity of lightly testing long positions after the price retraces to the new support level of 2270 yuan [12]. - **Peanuts**: The peanut price is expected to maintain a high - level oscillating pattern in the short term. It is recommended to wait and see or adopt an interval - trading strategy [12]. - **Pigs**: The supply of live pigs is sufficient, and the demand increase is less than expected. The futures market shows a pattern of near - term weakness and long - term strength [12]. - **Eggs**: The spot price of eggs continues to decline, and the futures market maintains an oscillation, with near - term strength and long - term weakness [13]. - **Red dates**: The price of red dates is expected to remain stable in the short term, and the futures market is looking for lower support [13]. - **Cotton**: The cotton price is expected to maintain a wide - range oscillating pattern before the Spring Festival. One can consider laying out long positions at low prices [13]. 3.2.2 Energy and Chemicals - **Caustic soda**: The caustic soda market is in an oversupply situation. One should pay attention to the impact of supply - side disturbances on prices and operate with a light position during the holiday [13]. - **Coking coal and coke**: Before the Spring Festival, the supply and demand of coking coal and coke are both weak, and the price is expected to oscillate weakly in the short term [13]. - **Logs**: The log price is expected to maintain an interval - oscillating pattern, with the upper pressure around 780 yuan and the lower support around 765 yuan [15]. - **Pulp**: The pulp market has a pattern of strong supply and weak demand. It is recommended to adopt a high - selling and low - buying strategy in the 5150 - 5250 yuan/ton interval [15]. - **Offset paper**: The offset paper market is in a weak supply - demand balance. It is recommended to wait and see or try short positions lightly when the price is high [16]. - **Urea**: The domestic urea market price is running strongly. One should pay attention to the changes in the start - up of downstream urea enterprises around the Spring Festival [16]. 3.2.3 Non - ferrous Metals - **Copper and aluminum**: The copper price is affected by the weakening US dollar, but the weak domestic demand restricts its upward space. The aluminum market has increasing supply pressure and weakening demand, and it is recommended to operate with a light position during the holiday [17]. - **Alumina**: The alumina market is in an oversupply situation, waiting for new market drivers, and it is recommended to operate with a light position during the holiday [17]. - **Rebar and hot - rolled coil**: Before the Spring Festival, the steel price is expected to be under pressure and run weakly [17]. - **Ferroalloys**: The ferroalloy market is affected by the decline of the black series, but the cost has certain support. It is recommended to operate with a light position during the holiday [17][19]. 3.2.4 Lithium Carbonate The lithium carbonate price shows signs of stabilizing. One can pay attention to the opportunity of laying out long positions after the price confirms stability after the Spring Festival [19]. 3.2.5 Options and Finance - **Stock index futures and options**: The stock index is mainly in an oscillating pattern. One can consider buying a straddle strategy during the holiday. The A - share market is expected to maintain an interval - oscillating pattern before the Spring Festival, and the probability of resuming an upward trend after the holiday is high [19][20].

节前以震荡为主 关注结构性机会 ——股指周报2026.02.09 数字金融部：李卫红 联系方式：0371-68599157 电子邮箱：liwh_qh@ccnew.com 投资咨询编号：Z0017812 本期观点 | 品种 | 主要逻辑 | 策略建议 | 风险提示 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | 1、证监会公布《关于境内资产境外发行资产支持证券代币的监管指引》，自公布之日 | | | | | 起施行。指引所称境内资产境外发行资产支持证券代币是指，以境内资产或相关资产权 | | | | | 利所产生的现金流为偿付支持，利用加密技术及分布式账本或类似技术，在境外发行代 | 操作上，综合来 | | | | | 看，春节前海外 | | | | 币化权益凭证的活动。证监会对境内资产境外发行资产支持证券代币依法依规进行严格 | 扰动偏多、贵金 | | | | 监管。 | 属巨震，叠加资 | | | | 中国人民银行等八部门联合发文，明确虚拟货币相关业务活动属于非法金融活动，境内 | | | | | 一律严格禁止。境内外任何单位和个人未经同意不得在境外发行挂钩人民币的稳定币， | 金的止盈需求 ...

内销启动，现货企稳，期货平水限制跌幅 ——鸡蛋周报2026-02-09 作 者：刘四奎 执业证书编号：F3033884 交易咨询编号：Z0011291 联 系 方 式：0371-58620082 分析师微信 公司官方微信 本周观点 | 品种 | 逻辑驱动 | 策略建议 | 风险提示 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | 【供应方面】：整体产能数据高位回落，7-11月新增 | | | | | 补栏低位，未来12-次年3月新增压力偏小，淘汰鸡价 | | | | | 格低位运行，淘汰继续加速，存栏高位回落，在产蛋 | | | | | 鸡产能趋势减少不变。 | | | | | 【需求方面】：需求开始转旺，阶段备货和低位补库 | | | | | 为主，需求提振明显。 | | | | | 【成本利润】：成本端玉米震荡偏强，豆粕震荡偏 | 1、整体会调后少量多单 | 1、新增补栏情况 | | 鸡蛋 | 弱，成本震荡，目前饲料成本2.5元/斤左右，综合养 | 尝试。 | 2、淘汰加速情况 | | | 殖成本2.8元/斤左右，养殖利润盈亏附近。 | 2、JD5-9介入反套。 | 3、消费提振情况 | ...