Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content Core Viewpoints - The current lithium carbonate market is in an upward - trending oscillation phase. The core contradiction between bulls and bears lies in the game between the high - level operation of the supply side and the expected production cut in December. Low inventory and demand resilience support prices, but the expected resumption of mining production restricts the upward space. It is expected that the price will oscillate in the range of 85,000 - 88,000 yuan in the short term [2]. - In the next 1 - 2 weeks, lithium carbonate prices are expected to oscillate in the range of 85,000 - 88,000 yuan. It is recommended to buy on dips near support levels [2]. Summary by Directory Lithium Salt Market Introduction - **Lithium Salt Price Changes**: The average price of battery - grade lithium carbonate in the spot market increased by 8.48% week - on - week to 86,950 yuan/ton, and the basis remained at a deep discount of - 410 yuan/ton. The main futures contract rose 6.15% to 87,360 yuan/ton, with an open interest increase of 5.26% to 516,778 lots. The intraday amplitude exceeded 3%, indicating intense long - short competition [2]. - **Lithium Salt Price Table**: The table shows price changes of various lithium salts. For example, the price of lithium carbonate futures rose from 82,300 to 87,360, a 6.15% increase; the delivered price of battery - grade lithium carbonate (electro - carbon) increased from 80,150 to 86,950, an 8.48% increase [4]. - **Lithium Salt Premium and Discount Changes**: Whether classified by raw materials or enterprises, the premium and discount of lithium salts have changed. For example, the premium of spodumene raw materials decreased from - 50 to - 200, a change of - 150 [7]. Lithium Salt Fundamentals - **Supply - Production**: Lithium salt plant capacity utilization remained at a high level of 75.34%. November production is expected to be the same as October, but there is an expected production cut in salt - lake lithium extraction after December. The production of cathode materials such as ternary materials and lithium iron phosphate also increased [2]. - **Demand - Consumption**: Energy - storage cell production increased by 5% year - on - year, and the export proportion of new energy vehicles increased to 44.2%. The monthly production of ternary materials and lithium iron phosphate increased by 1% and 4% respectively [2]. - **Import and Export**: Lithium ore port inventory decreased by 5.62% week - on - week to 84,000 tons, with African raw materials as the main trade flow. Freight rates remained stable. The cost of externally purchased lithium concentrate decreased slightly by 0.12% to 74,687 yuan/ton, and production profit increased significantly by 128.23% to 12,262.8 yuan/ton [2]. - **Inventory**: Social inventory of lithium carbonate has been decreasing for 12 consecutive weeks to a historical low of 124,000 tons, and warehouse - receipt inventory decreased by 0.59% to 27,170 lots [2]. Lithium - Battery Fundamentals - **Market - Cathode Materials**: Information on the market, supply, demand, import and export, cost - profit, and recycling of cathode materials, electrolytes, and new energy vehicles is provided, but specific data details are not fully presented in the summary part [44 - 61].

铁水转增，成本支撑带动钢价低位回升 ——周报20251117 研究所 ：林娜 联 系 方 式 ：0371-58620083 电 子 邮 箱 ：linna_qh@ccnew.com 执 业 证 书 编 号 ：F03099603 投 资 咨 询 编 号 ：Z0020978 | 本期观点——螺纹钢、热卷 | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 品种 | 主要逻辑 | 策略建议 | 风险点 | | | 供应：螺纹钢高炉周产量200万吨（环比-4.10%，同比-14.51%），全国热卷周产 | | | | | 量313.66万吨（环比-1.41%，同比+1.67%）。螺纹钢和热卷均呈现减产。 | | | | | 消费：螺纹钢表观消费216.37万吨（环比-0.98%，同比-7.61%），热卷表观消费 | | | | | 313.59万吨（环比-0.23%，同比-1.23%）。螺纹钢和热卷表需均呈现小幅下降。 | | | | | 库存：螺纹总库存576.17万吨（环比-2.76%，同比+29.33%），热卷总库存 | 震荡偏强 | | | | 410.52万吨（环比+0.02%，同比+27 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The global financial and commodity markets showed mixed trends on November 18, 2025. Major stock indices in the US declined, while some commodities like CBOT soybeans and domestic metals such as gold and silver had positive movements. In the macro - economic aspect, various events including diplomatic responses, financial dialogues, and policy - related decisions influenced market sentiment. Different sectors in the commodities market had their own supply - demand dynamics and price trends, and the A - share market continued its high - level adjustment [2][7][11]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs 3.1 Commodity Index Daily Market Tracking - **Stock Indices**: On November 18, 2025, the Dow Jones Industrial Index dropped to 46590.24, a decrease of 1.182% from the previous day; the Nasdaq Index fell to 22708.07, down 0.841%; the S&P 500 decreased to 6672.41, a decline of 0.916%; and the Hang Seng Index dropped to 26384.28, down 0.708% [2]. - **Other Macro Indicators**: SHIBOR overnight increased to 1.51, up 10.638%; the dollar index slightly decreased to 99.53, down 0.004%; the dollar - to - RMB (CFETS) remained unchanged at 7.10 [2]. - **Commodity Futures**: In the international market, COMEX gold decreased to 4045.10, down 0.962%; COMEX silver dropped to 50.05, down 0.694%; LME copper decreased to 10766.50, down 0.733%. In the domestic market, gold increased to 931.24, up 0.192%; silver rose to 11983.00, up 0.419%; copper decreased to 86320.00, down 0.150% [2]. 3.2 Macro - economic News - **Diplomatic and International Relations**: China has and will continue to lodge solemn representations and strong protests against Japan's Prime Minister's wrong remarks on Taiwan. During the G20 Summit, there is no arrangement for Premier Li Qiang to meet with Japanese leaders. China and Germany held the fourth high - level financial and economic dialogue, and both sides welcomed cross - listing of depositary receipts [7]. - **Domestic Economic Data**: From January to October this year, China's national fiscal revenue was 18.65 trillion yuan, a year - on - year increase of 0.8%, and fiscal expenditure was 22.58 trillion yuan, a year - on - year increase of 2%. In October, the bank's foreign exchange settlement surplus was 177 billion US dollars, and the cross - border capital inflow increased [7][8]. - **Industrial Policies**: China will conduct a final review of anti - dumping and counter - vailing measures on imported n - propanol from the US. The real estate market is showing a trend of being dominated by second - hand housing transactions and gradually stabilizing [8]. - **International Monetary Policy**: The Fed's vice - chairperson believes that the downward risk of employment has increased, and the upward risk of inflation may have slightly decreased recently. A Fed governor advocates another interest rate cut in December [9]. 3.3 Main Variety Morning Meeting Views 3.3.1 Agricultural Products - **Peanuts**: On November 17, peanut futures closed at 7958 yuan/ton, slightly down 0.20%. Short - term trading can be long at low prices near the 7900 - yuan support level, but beware of price drops due to increased supply [11]. - **Sugar**: On November 17, sugar futures closed at 5458 yuan/ton, down 0.58%. The supply - side pressure is obvious, and it is recommended to wait and see [11]. - **Corn**: On November 17, the corn main contract closed at 2182 yuan/ton, flat. The market lacks a strong driver, and it is recommended to wait and see [11]. - **Other Agricultural Products**: The prices of other agricultural products such as eggs, cotton, etc. also showed different trends, and corresponding trading strategies were proposed based on supply - demand fundamentals [11]. 3.3.2 Energy and Chemicals - **Caustic Soda**: The supply - demand pattern is weak, and the 2601 contract is running at a low level. Pay attention to the support at the annual low [13]. - **Urea**: The supply is relatively abundant, and the price rebound space is limited. The UR2601 contract is expected to run in the 1600 - 1700 yuan/ton range [13]. - **Coking Coal and Coke**: The prices are expected to fluctuate in the short term, with coking coal in the 1100 - 1300 yuan range and coke in the 1600 - 1800 yuan range [13]. - **Paper Pulp**: The supply - demand is weak. Short - term attention should be paid to the effectiveness of the 5450 - 5350 yuan support. It is recommended to hold long positions cautiously [13][15]. 3.3.3 Industrial Metals - **Copper and Aluminum**: The market macro - sentiment has cooled, and copper and aluminum are adjusting at high levels. Pay attention to macro - risks [15]. - **Alumina**: The fundamentals remain in an oversupply pattern. The 2601 contract is running at a low level, and pay attention to factors such as bauxite [15]. - **Steel Products**: The steel prices have rebounded at a low level, but the upward height is limited. The pressure on rebar is around 3150 yuan, and that on hot - rolled coils is around 3350 yuan [15]. - **Silicon Ferroalloys**: They mainly follow the macro and black - series fluctuations. The alloy's own supply - demand drive is not strong [16]. - **Lithium Carbonate**: The short - term strong pattern continues. It is recommended to hold long positions lightly, and beware of downstream procurement caution and import pressure [16]. 3.3.4 Options and Finance - **Stock Index**: The A - share market continues its high - level adjustment. It is recommended to adopt a defensive strategy, reduce positions, and use options to sell straddle strategies [16][17].

白糖市场震荡整理，多空因素交织 --白糖周报2025年11月10日-11月14日 作 者：杨江涛 执业证书编号：F03117249 交易咨询编号：Z0022644 联 系 方 式：0371-58620082 本周观点 | 品种 | 逻辑驱动 【现货市场】柳州现货价5650元/吨周环比微跌0.18%，南宁、昆明报价同步下调， 基差收窄至180元/吨环比降11.33%，反映现货支撑减弱。 【期货市场】主力合约周度收于5470元/吨，周内振幅1.19%，持仓量减少11425手 | 策略及风险提示 预计未来1-2周 白糖主力合约将 | | --- | --- | --- | | 白糖 | 至370242手，显示资金持续流出。 【供应方面】巴西11月首周糖出口同比下滑23%，国内新榨季广西甘蔗长势良好， 仓单数量环比大增16.8%至8622张，供应压力显现。 【需求方面】加工糖报价持稳5770-5890元/吨，看跌比例45%环比降10个百分点， 但看平比例35%环比增16.67%，反映需求观望情绪浓厚。 【进口出口】泰国原糖升贴水持稳0.89美分/磅，巴西升贴水环比降26.09%至 | 在5450-5520元/ 吨区间 ...

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints of the Report The report presents a comprehensive analysis of various financial markets, including macro - indicators, commodities, and financial derivatives. It also covers significant macro - events and provides trading suggestions for major varieties. The market is influenced by multiple factors such as geopolitical risks, policy changes, and supply - demand dynamics, and investors need to make cautious decisions based on these factors [2][6][10]. Summary by Related Catalogs 1. Macro Indicators and Market Tracking - **Stock Indices**: The Dow Jones Industrial Index rose 0.682% to 48254.82, the Nasdaq Index fell 0.264% to 23406.46, the S&P 500 rose 0.063% to 6850.92, and the Hang Seng Index rose 0.848% to 26922.73 [2]. - **Interest Rates and Exchange Rates**: SHIBOR overnight fell 6.167% to 1.42, while the dollar index and the dollar - to - RMB (CFETS) remained unchanged [2]. - **Commodity Futures**: COMEX gold rose 1.650% to 4201.40, COMEX silver rose 4.219% to 53.23. Most base metals showed small - scale fluctuations, and energy commodities like NYMEX crude oil fell 4.194% to 58.48 and ICE Brent oil fell 3.703% to 62.68 [2]. 2. Macro - News - **International Relations**: China and Spain strengthened cooperation in various fields, and China expressed willingness to promote economic cooperation with Spain. China also emphasized the importance of Sino - US economic and trade cooperation [6]. - **Industry Policies**: The National Energy Administration proposed to support the construction of 100% new - energy bases, and the 2025 World Power Battery Conference had 180 signed projects worth 861.3 billion yuan [6][7]. - **US Situation**: The US government shutdown crisis may end, and the US Treasury plans to announce "substantial" tariff news and a "tariff dividend" plan [7]. - **Commodity Market**: Oil prices fell due to OPEC's demand forecast cut and increased US API crude oil inventory, while precious metals rose due to geopolitical risks and Fed policy divergence [8]. 3. Morning Meeting Views on Major Varieties 3.1 Agricultural Products - **Peanuts**: On November 12, the peanut futures rose 0.61%. Supply is differentiated, and demand is weak. It is recommended to go long at support levels but beware of price drops due to concentrated supply [10]. - **Sugar**: On November 12, sugar futures fell slightly. Supply and demand factors co - exist. If the price breaks through the key pressure level, a long position can be considered, but beware of price drops after new sugar is listed [10]. - **Corn**: On November 12, corn futures rose slightly. Supply pressure is being released, and demand has both positive and negative factors. It is recommended to hold short - term long positions and pay attention to pressure levels [10]. - **Pigs**: The national average pig price is weak. Supply will remain large in November, and the futures are in high - level adjustment. It is recommended to focus on the support level and conduct inter - month spread trading [10]. - **Eggs**: The spot price of eggs is weak. Supply pressure needs to be observed, and it is recommended to short the futures and conduct inter - month spread trading [10]. - **Cotton**: On November 12, Zhengzhou cotton futures fell. Supply and demand factors co - exist. It is recommended to wait and see and focus on the USDA report [10]. 3.2 Energy and Chemicals - **Caustic Soda**: The supply of caustic soda is loose, and demand is difficult to form effective support. The 2601 contract is under pressure, and cautious operation is required [11]. - **Coking Coal**: The downstream purchasing sentiment of coking coal has improved slightly, and the coke price increase is still being negotiated. It is recommended to focus on the support level of the contract [11]. - **Urea**: The domestic urea market price is weak. The daily output has increased, and it is recommended to pay attention to the price range of the UR2601 contract [11]. - **Paper Pulp**: On November 12, paper pulp futures fell slightly. Supply pressure has eased, and demand is weak. It is recommended to hold long positions cautiously and pay attention to pressure and support levels [13]. 3.3 Industrial Metals - **Copper and Aluminum**: Copper and aluminum are expected to remain strong due to macro - factors, but macro - risks should be noted [15]. - **Alumina**: The alumina market is in an oversupply situation, and the price is under pressure. It is recommended to pay attention to factors such as bauxite [16]. - **Steel Products**: The supply - demand structure of steel products has improved, but prices are restricted by the off - season of terminal demand. They are expected to fluctuate at low levels in the short term [19]. - **Ferroalloys**: Ferroalloys mainly follow macro and black - series fluctuations, with limited self - supply and demand drivers [19]. - **Lithium Carbonate**: The lithium carbonate market has a pattern of strong supply and demand. It is recommended to go long at support levels but beware of risks [19]. 3.4 Options and Finance - **Stock Index**: The stock index is in a consolidation phase. It is recommended to reduce positions, adopt a balanced strategy, and sell straddles in options trading [20][21]. - **Options**: Trend investors can focus on arbitrage opportunities between varieties, and volatility investors can consider buying straddles or wide - straddles after volatility decreases [23].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core View of the Report - The industry drivers are unclear, and cotton futures prices are expected to have limited upward space and fluctuate narrowly in the short term [3]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Market Review - US cotton prices declined continuously last week, with a closing price of 63.62 cents per pound on Friday, a drop of 2.93%. As of September 26, non - commercial long positions decreased by 751, non - commercial short net positions increased by 2020, and non - commercial net positions decreased by 2771 [9]. - Zhengzhou cotton futures fluctuated narrowly, ranging from 13,455 to 13,640 yuan per ton, with a closing price of 13,580 yuan per ton on Friday, a weekly decline of 15 yuan or 0.11%. As of November 7, the registered and forecasted warehouse receipts of No. 1 cotton totaled 3,858 lots, equivalent to 192,000 tons [10]. - Spot cotton prices were basically stable, but trading was sluggish. The purchase price of seed cotton showed a trend of first falling and then rising, ranging from 6.4 to 6.6 yuan per kilogram, and the new cotton cost provided some support for cotton prices [12]. 3.2 Domestic Cotton Market 3.2.1 Supply - The China Cotton Association predicts that the total cotton output in the 2025/26 season will reach 7.216 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 8.3%. Xinjiang's output is expected to be about 6.911 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 9.2%, accounting for 95.8% of the national total [17]. - In September 2025, China imported 95,000 tons of cotton. Australia and Brazil were the main sources, with Australia supplying 69,900 tons and Brazil 12,300 tons [24]. 3.2.2 Demand - Demand was lower than the same period last year. Domestic demand had no obvious positive factors, while exports improved slightly. Weaving mills' raw material procurement was mainly on a wait - and - see basis [26][32]. 3.2.3 Profit - The processing profit of ginning mills this week was 517 - 613 yuan per ton, and the immediate profit of spinning mills was - 989.1 to - 819.7 yuan per ton, showing an improvement compared to last week [35]. 3.2.4 Inventory - As of the week of November 7, the national commercial cotton inventory was 2.3261 million tons, a week - on - week increase of 521,700 tons and 278,800 tons higher than the same period last year. At the end of September, the industrial inventory of cotton textile enterprises was 845,500 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 46,800 tons [41]. 3.3 International Market - According to the latest USDA global cotton production and sales forecast in September, the global cotton output in September was 25.62 million tons, a month - on - month increase of 230,000 tons; total consumption increased by 184,000 tons to 25.68 million tons; and the ending inventory decreased by 168,000 tons to 15.92 million tons [43]. - The US government shutdown led to the suspension of most USDA reports [46].

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core View of the Report - Macroscopically, the expected end of the US government "shutdown" has led to a recovery in market risk appetite, providing some support for commodity prices. Industrially, the de - stocking of the five major steel products continued, but the slowdown in the decline of rebar inventory and the increase in hot - rolled coil inventory, along with the continuous decline in hot metal, have put pressure on steel prices. Currently, steel prices are near previous lows, and it is expected that the downward space is limited, with short - term low - level fluctuations. Medium - term, pay attention to new macro - driving factors from mid - November to December [3]. Summary According to the Directory 1. Market Review - Last week, overseas markets focused on liquidity risks, with a phased increase in risk - aversion sentiment. The high - level US dollar index pressured commodities. Industrially, the de - stocking of the five major steel products slowed down, with rebar slightly reducing inventory and hot - rolled coil inventory increasing. Steel prices fluctuated weakly under pressure [9]. 2. Steel Supply and Demand Analysis - **Production**: Rebar and hot - rolled coil production both decreased slightly. National rebar weekly production was 208.54 tons (down 1.91% week - on - week and 10.77% year - on - year), and national hot - rolled coil weekly production was 318.16 tons (down 1.67% week - on - week and up 2.13% year - on - year). Rebar production from both electric furnaces and blast furnaces decreased [13][15]. - **Operating Rate**: The blast furnace operating rate increased, while the electric furnace operating rate decreased. The national blast furnace operating rate was 83.13% (up 1.69% week - on - week and 0.84% year - on - year), and the electric furnace operating rate was 67.03% (down 2.62% week - on - week and 4.37% year - on - year) [22][26]. - **Profit**: The profits of rebar and hot - rolled coil improved slightly. Rebar profit was - 39 yuan/ton (up 18 yuan/ton week - on - week and down 188 yuan/ton year - on - year), and hot - rolled coil profit was - 80 yuan/ton (up 34 yuan/ton week - on - week and down 141 yuan/ton year - on - year) [27][30]. - **Demand**: The demand for rebar and hot - rolled coil both declined. Rebar apparent consumption was 218.52 tons (down 5.89% week - on - week and 5.34% year - on - year), the 5 - day average of national building materials transactions was 9.64 tons (down 7.81% week - on - week and 23.09% year - on - year), and hot - rolled coil apparent consumption was 314.3 tons (down 5.30% week - on - week and 1.48% year - on - year) [31][35]. - **Inventory**: Rebar de - stocking slowed down, with both factory and social inventories slightly decreasing. Hot - rolled coil inventory increased, with social inventory rising and factory inventory slightly decreasing [36][40]. - **Downstream**: In the real estate sector, the transactions of commercial housing and land both decreased month - on - month. In the automotive sector, in September 2025, automobile production and sales continued to rise both month - on - month and year - on - year [45][50]. 3. Iron Ore Supply and Demand Analysis - **Supply**: The arrivals from Australia and Brazil decreased periodically. The iron ore price index was 104.13 (down 2.23% week - on - week and up 2.96% year - on - year), the iron ore shipments from Australia and Brazil were 2683.5 tons (down 5.66% week - on - week and up 0.39% year - on - year), and the arrivals at 45 ports were 2741.2 tons (down 14.83% week - on - week and up 17.80% year - on - year) [53][58]. - **Demand**: The daily output of hot metal decreased month - on - month, while the port clearance volume increased slightly. The daily output of hot metal was 234.22 tons (down 2.14 tons week - on - week and up 0.16 tons year - on - year), the port clearance volume at 45 ports was 320.93 tons (up 0.24% week - on - week and 2.08% year - on - year), and the inventory - to - sales ratio of 247 steel enterprises was 31.21 days (up 2.83% week - on - week and down 0.89% year - on - year) [59][63]. - **Inventory**: Iron ore port inventory continued to rise, and steel enterprises' iron ore inventory increased slightly. The inventory at 45 ports was 14898.83 tons (up 2.45% week - on - week and down 2.50% year - on - year), the imported iron ore inventory of 247 steel enterprises was 9009.94 tons (up 1.81% week - on - week and down 1.32% year - on - year), and the average available days of iron ore for 114 steel enterprises was 24.25 days (up 3.85% week - on - week and 12.74% year - on - year) [64][68]. 4. Coking Coal and Coke Supply and Demand Analysis - **Supply**: The operating rate of domestic coking mines continued to decline, while Mongolian coal customs clearance was at a high level. The operating rate of coking mines was 83.76% (down 1.20% week - on - week and 6.71% year - on - year), the capacity utilization rate of coal washing plants was 37.61% (up 3.15% week - on - week and down 11.96% year - on - year), and the average daily Mongolian coal customs clearance volume was 16.55 tons (up 52.78% week - on - week and 3.73% year - on - year) [70][74]. - **Demand**: The transaction rate of coking coal auctions decreased slightly. The daily transaction rate of coking coal auctions was 61.25% (down 37.74% week - on - week and 34.35% year - on - year), and the weekly transaction rate was 88.42% (down 5.00% week - on - week and up 3.11% year - on - year) [75][77]. - **Coking Enterprises**: The profit of independent coking enterprises increased slightly, and the capacity utilization rate decreased slightly. The profit per ton of coke for independent coking enterprises was - 22 yuan/ton (up 10 yuan/ton week - on - week and down 58 yuan/ton year - on - year), the capacity utilization rate of independent coking enterprises was 72.31% (down 1.54% week - on - week and 1.61% year - on - year), and the capacity utilization rate of steel mills' coke was 84.99% (down 0.26% week - on - week and 1.87% year - on - year) [79][83]. - **Inventory**: Coking coal port inventory continued to rise, and coking plant inventory continued to increase. Coke port inventory decreased, and coking plant inventory remained at a low level [84][90]. - **Spot Price**: The fourth round of coke price increase started, and the game between steel and coking enterprises continued. The price of low - sulfur coking coal in Shanxi was 1660 yuan/ton (up 60 yuan/ton week - on - week and 10 yuan/ton year - on - year), and the ex - factory price of quasi - first - grade metallurgical coke in Handan was 1490 yuan/ton (up 50 yuan/ton week - on - week and down 270 yuan/ton year - on - year) [96][100]. 5. Spread Analysis - The basis of rebar widened, and the 1 - 5 spread of rebar narrowed. The spread between hot - rolled coil and rebar slightly widened, and the 1 - 5 spread of coking coal and coke widened [102][108].

Report Overview - Report Title: "Carbonate Lithium Weekly Report from October 27 - 31, 2025" [1] - Author: Yang Jiangtao [1] - Industry: Carbonate Lithium and Lithium Battery Materials 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content 2. Core Viewpoints - The carbonate lithium market is in a high - level shock stage. At the beginning of the week, it broke through the previous high driven by funds, and on Friday, it significantly corrected due to the expectation of warrant cancellation. The core contradiction lies in the game between the expectation of new capacity release and strong demand. In the short term, the pattern of strong supply and demand continues, but the fluctuation of capital sentiment intensifies price volatility. It is expected that carbonate lithium will oscillate between 80,000 - 84,000 yuan/ton next week, and attention should be paid to the actual impact of warrant cancellation [2]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Lithium Salt Market Introduction - **Carbonate Lithium Futures and Spot**: The carbonate lithium futures price rose 5.05% from 75,700 yuan/ton last Friday to 79,520 yuan/ton this Friday. The carbonate lithium spot price (electric carbon) increased 4.82% from 75,750 yuan/ton to 79,400 yuan/ton, and the carbonate lithium spot price (industrial carbon) rose 4.77% from 74,400 yuan/ton to 77,950 yuan/ton. The price of lithium hydroxide spot remained unchanged [4]. - **Carbonate Lithium Premium Changes**: The premium of different raw materials and enterprises for carbonate lithium has changed, with the premium of most raw materials and enterprises increasing [7]. 3.2 Lithium Salt Fundamentals 3.2.1 Supply - **Carbonate Lithium Production**: The capacity utilization rate of carbonate lithium remained at 74.39%. Although new production lines were put into operation, the actual increase was limited. The port inventory of lithium ore increased 6.06% week - on - week to 70,000 tons, and the import volume in September decreased 10% month - on - month, indicating a structural contradiction in the supply side [2]. - **Hydroxide Lithium Production**: Not detailed in the provided content 3.2.2 Demand - **Downstream Consumption**: The production of energy - storage cells increased 5% week - on - week to 52GWh, the weekly production of ternary materials reached 18,568 tons, and the penetration rate of new energy vehicles exceeded 60%, showing strong demand [2]. 3.2.3 Import and Export - **Lithium Ore Import**: The import freight of lithium ore was stable with a slight increase. The freight on the Nigerian route increased 7.14% week - on - week, and the import cost support was enhanced. The import volume in September decreased 10% month - on - month, reflecting tight overseas supply [2]. - **Lithium Ore Transportation Cost**: The transportation cost of lithium ore from some African countries remained stable, while the cost from Nigeria decreased (bulk: - 7.14%, container: - 6.67%) [27]. 3.2.4 Inventory - **Carbonate Lithium Social Inventory**: The warrant inventory decreased 3.76% week - on - week to 27,621 lots, and the available inventory of lithium ore increased 9.09% to 12,000 tons, with limited overall inventory pressure [2]. - **Carbonate Lithium Warrants**: The total number of carbonate lithium warrants decreased 1,987 week - on - week from 30,686 to 28,699 [40]. 3.2.5 Cost and Profit - **Carbonate Lithium**: The production profit of externally purchased lithium concentrate increased 82.52% week - on - week to 9,339 yuan/ton, while the lithium mica route still had a loss of 7,681 yuan/ton, and the cost differentiation intensified industry reshuffle [2]. 3.3 Lithium - Battery Fundamentals 3.3.1 Market - **Cathode Materials**: Not detailed in the provided content 3.3.2 Supply - **Cathode Materials Production**: Not detailed in the provided content - **Electrolyte**: Not detailed in the provided content 3.3.3 Demand - **Cathode Materials Consumption**: Not detailed in the provided content 3.3.4 Import and Export - **Lithium - Battery Materials**: Not detailed in the provided content - **Batteries**: Not detailed in the provided content 3.3.5 Cost and Profit - **Ternary Materials**: Not detailed in the provided content 3.3.6 Lithium - Battery Recycling - Not detailed in the provided content 3.3.7 New Energy Vehicles - **Production and Sales**: Not detailed in the provided content

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. 2. Core View of the Report The current sugar market is in a weakly fluctuating phase. The core contradiction between bulls and bears lies in the game between the expected increase in production in the Northern Hemisphere (new sugar supply from Brazil and the upcoming new domestic sugar - crushing season) and cost support (the production cost line of 5400 yuan). The supply remains loose, and the demand is in a slack season. The futures price is repeatedly testing the support level in the range of 5450 - 5500 yuan, lacking short - term breakthrough momentum. It is expected that the main sugar contract will continue to fluctuate in the range of 5400 - 5500 yuan/ton in the next 1 - 2 weeks, and the direction will depend on the progress of the new sugar - crushing season and policy signals [4]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1. Market Review (CHAPTER 1) - **1.1 Weekly Review**: The 11 - day sugar continuous contract closed at 14.43 cents/pound, down 3.61% from last week. The main Zhengzhou sugar contract closed at 5483 yuan/ton, up 0.68%. Spot prices in Nanning, Liuzhou, Kunming, and Rizhao Lingyunhai all decreased slightly by about 0.17 - 0.18%. The basis between Liuzhou sugar and the main contract narrowed by 20.09% to 187 yuan/ton. The total of warehouse receipts and valid forecasts decreased by 7.47% to 8116. The market sentiment shows that the bullish, bearish, and neutral ratios are 20%, 50%, and 30% respectively, remaining unchanged from last week [6]. 3.2. Fundamental Analysis (CHAPTER 2) - **2.1 - 2.3 Sugar Production and Sales in China**: No detailed data provided in the given content. - **2.4 China's White Sugar Industrial Inventory**: The total of warehouse receipts and valid forecasts decreased by 7.47%, indicating a slight relief in physical inventory pressure, but the absolute level remains high [4]. - **2.5 - 2.7 China's Sugar Import and Export**: In September, the import volume was 550,000 tons, a year - on - year increase of 35.8% but a month - on - month decrease. The international raw sugar price dropped 3.61% to 14.43 cents/pound, suppressing import motivation. - **2.9 China's Sugar Import Cost and Profit**: The in - quota import profit increased by 10 - 11% week - on - week, and the out - of - quota profit increased significantly by 35 - 42%. The processing cost decreased by 5.4 - 5.7%. For example, the in - quota processing cost from Brazil decreased from 4040 yuan to 3816 yuan, a 5.54% drop, and the in - quota import profit increased from 1851 yuan to 2047 yuan, a 10.59% increase [31]. 3.3. International Market Fundamentals (CHAPTER 3) - **3.1 - 3.4 Brazil's Sugar Availability, Cane Crushing, Sugar Production, and Ethanol Production**: No detailed data provided in the given content. - **3.5 Brazil's Sugar Import and Export**: No detailed data provided in the given content. - **3.6 International Raw Sugar Premium and Freight Costs**: The premium for Brazilian sugar remained unchanged at - 0.41, and the shipping cost decreased slightly by 0.18% to 38.8. The premium for Thai sugar remained unchanged at 0.89, and the shipping cost remained unchanged at 18 [31].

Report Title - "Carbonate Lithium Market Soars and Then Declines, with Intensified Capital Gaming in the Context of Strong Supply and Demand - Carbonate Lithium Weekly Report from October 27 - 31, 2025" [1] Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Core View of the Report - It is expected that lithium carbonate will oscillate between 80,000 - 84,000 yuan per ton next week, and attention should be paid to the actual impact of warrant cancellations. The current market is in a high - level oscillation stage. The core contradiction lies in the game between the expectation of new capacity release and strong demand. The short - term pattern of strong supply and demand will continue, but capital sentiment fluctuations will intensify price oscillations [2] Summary by Relevant Catalogs Lithium Salt Market Introduction - **Lithium Salt Price Changes**: The weekly increase of battery - grade carbonate lithium was 5.29% to 83,600 yuan per ton, and the basis changed from negative to positive to 2,820 yuan per ton. Industrial - grade carbonate lithium also rose 5.39% to 82,150 yuan per ton, with a stable price difference of 1,450 yuan per ton between battery - grade and industrial - grade. The weekly increase of carbonate lithium futures was 5.05%, from 75,700 yuan to 79,520 yuan. The arrival price of battery - grade carbonate lithium increased by 4.82% to 79,400 yuan, and the spot price of industrial - grade carbonate lithium increased by 4.77% to 77,950 yuan. The prices of lithium hydroxide remained unchanged [2][4] - **Lithium Salt Premium Changes**: The weekly premium changes of different raw materials and enterprises for lithium carbonate were significant. For example, the premium of spodumene raw materials increased by 150 yuan, and the premium of Ganfeng Lithium Industry increased by 100 yuan [7] Lithium Salt Fundamentals Supply - **China's Carbonate Lithium Production**: The capacity utilization rate of carbonate lithium remained at 74.39%. Although new production lines were put into operation, the actual increase was limited. The production of different regions and raw material sources is also an important part of the supply side [2] - **China's Lithium Hydroxide Production**: Not detailed in the provided content Demand - **Downstream Consumption**: The production of energy - storage cells increased by 5% week - on - week to 52GWh, the weekly production of ternary materials reached 18,568 tons, and the penetration rate of new energy vehicles exceeded 60%, showing strong demand [2] Import and Export - **Lithium Ore Import**: The shipping cost of lithium ore imports was stable with a slight increase. The shipping cost of the Nigerian route increased by 7.14% week - on - week. In September, the import volume decreased by 10% month - on - month, indicating tight overseas supply [2] - **Lithium Ore Transportation and Cost**: The shipping costs from South Africa, Zimbabwe, and other countries remained unchanged, while those from Nigeria decreased. For example, the bulk shipping cost from Nigeria decreased by 7.14% [27] - **Carbonate Lithium and Lithium Hydroxide Import and Export**: Not detailed in the provided content Inventory - **Carbonate Lithium Social Inventory**: The warrant inventory decreased by 3.76% week - on - week to 27,621 lots, and the available inventory of lithium ore increased by 9.09% to 12,000 tons, with limited overall inventory pressure [2] - **Carbonate Lithium Warrants**: The total number of carbonate lithium warrants decreased by 1,987 lots week - on - week, from 30,686 lots to 28,699 lots [40] Cost and Profit - **Carbonate Lithium**: The production profit of externally purchased lithium concentrate increased by 82.52% week - on - week to 9,339 yuan per ton, while the lithium mica route still had a loss of 7,681 yuan per ton, and cost differentiation intensified industry reshuffle [2] Lithium Battery Fundamentals Market - **Cathode Materials**: Not detailed in the provided content Supply - **Cathode Materials Production**: Not detailed in the provided content - **Electrolyte Price and Production**: Not detailed in the provided content Demand - **Cathode Materials Consumption**: Not detailed in the provided content Import and Export - **Lithium Battery Materials and Batteries**: Not detailed in the provided content Cost and Profit - **Ternary Materials**: Not detailed in the provided content Lithium Battery Recycling - Not detailed in the provided content New Energy Vehicles - **Production and Sales**: Not detailed in the provided content