晨会纪要 中原期货研究咨询部 2025 第（153）期 发布日期：2025-08-21 | 中原期货研究咨询部 | 0371-58620081 | | --- | --- | | 0371-58620083 | | | 公司官方微信 | | 公司官方微信 1 中原期货研究咨询部 | 化工 | 主力合约 | 2025/8/21 | 2025/8/20 | 涨跌 | 涨跌幅/% | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | | 8:00 | 15:00 | | | | | 焦煤 | 1,172.50 | 1,162.50 | 10.0 | 0.860 | | | 焦炭 | 1,684.00 | 1,678.00 | 6.0 | 0.358 | | | 天然橡胶 | 15,755.00 | 15,675.00 | 80.0 | 0.510 | | | 20号胶 | 12,605.00 | 12,525.00 | 80.0 | 0.639 | | | 塑料 | 7,349.00 | 7,347.00 | 2.0 | 0.027 | | | 聚丙烯PP | 7,027.00 | ...

中原期货研究咨询部 晨会纪要 | 化工 | 主力合约 | 2025/8/20 | 2025/8/19 | 涨跌 | 涨跌幅/% | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | | 8:00 | 15:00 | | | | | 焦煤 | 1,156.50 | 1,194.50 | -38.0 | -3.181 | | | 焦炭 | 1,668.50 | 1.708.50 | -40.0 | -2.341 | | | 天然橡胶 | 15,520.00 | 15,875.00 | -355.0 | -2.236 | | | 20号胶 | 12,380.00 | 12,690.00 | -310.0 | -2.443 | | | 塑料 | 7,278.00 | 7,307.00 | -29.0 | -0.397 | | | 聚丙烯PP | 6,993.00 | 7,016.00 | -23.0 | -0.328 | | | (PTA) | 4,714.00 | 4,734.00 | -20.0 | -0.422 | | | PVC | 4,968.00 | 5,001.00 | ...

供需缺乏驱动 行情宽幅震荡 ——铁合金周报20250818 供应：增幅扩大 5 6 7 8 9 1 0 1 1 1 2 1 3 1 4 1-1 1-14 1-27 2-9 2-22 3-7 3-20 4-2 4-15 4-28 5-11 5-24 6-6 6-19 7-2 7-15 7-28 8-10 8-23 9-5 9-18 10-1 10-14 10-27 11-9 11-22 12-5 12-18 12-31 硅铁周产量：万吨 2022 2023 2024 2025 30.00 35.00 40.00 45.00 50.00 55.00 60.00 硅铁月产量：万吨 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 数据来源：Mysteel 中原期货 • 136家独立硅铁企业周产量11.28万吨（环比+3.4%，同比+10.6%） • 2025年7月硅铁产量44.67万吨（环比+7.88%，同比-11.92%） 需求：弱稳 研 究 咨 询 部 ：彭博涵 联 系 方 式 ：0371-58630083 电 子 邮 箱 ：pengbh_qh@ccnew.com 执 业证书 编 号 ：F3076814 投资咨 ...

关税扰动，钢价波动加剧 ——周报20250818 投 资 咨 询 编 号 ：Z0020978 研究所 ：林娜 联 系 方 式 ：0371-58620083 电 子 邮 箱 ：linna_qh@ccnew.com 执 业 证 书 编 号 ：F03099603 | 本期观点——螺纹钢、热卷 | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 品种 | 主要逻辑 | 策略建议 | 风险点 | | | 供应：全国螺纹周产量220.45万吨（环比-0.33%，同比+32.51%），全国热卷周 | | | | | 产量315.59万吨（环比+0.22%，同比+4.72%）。螺纹钢小幅减产，热卷产量微增。 | | | | | 消费：螺纹钢表观消费189.94万吨（环比-9.89%，同比-4.72%），热卷表观消费 | | | | | 314.75万吨（环比+2.79%，同比+9.21%）。螺纹钢需求回落明显，热卷表现回升。 | | | | | 库存：螺纹总库存587.19万吨（环比+5.48%，同比-14.97%），热卷总库存 | | | | | 357.47万吨（环比+0.24%，同比-20.66%） ...

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The A - share market has shown a strong upward trend, with multiple indices hitting stage - highs, and both domestic and international institutions are generally optimistic about the subsequent performance of the Chinese stock market [6]. - The global financial market is awaiting the Jackson Hole Global Central Bank Symposium, and different institutions have different expectations for Fed Chairman Powell's speech [8]. - The current slow - bull market in A - shares has entered the middle stage, with a structural rise, and investors should pay attention to the rhythm of investment and avoid chasing up and selling down [18]. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs 1. Macro - economic News - Premier Li Qiang emphasized enhancing macro - policy implementation efficiency, stimulating consumption potential, expanding effective investment, and stabilizing the real estate market [6]. - A - share market indices hit new highs, with the Shanghai Composite Index closing above 3700 points, and the total market capitalization exceeding 100 trillion yuan [6]. - Trump and Zelensky met at the White House, and there may be a trilateral meeting among the US, Russia, and Ukraine. Ukraine will purchase $100 billion worth of weapons from the US and sign a $50 billion drone cooperation production agreement [7]. - The State Council Information Office will hold a press conference on August 20 to introduce parade preparation work [7]. - Deputy Governor Zou Lan of the central bank proposed improving the legal system of movable property guarantee [7]. - The National Medical Insurance Work Symposium announced nine key tasks, including formulating a new payment - by - disease model and exploring centralized procurement after the agreement period [7]. - In the first half of the year, automobile dealers suffered serious losses in new - car business, and the outlook for 2025 is a slight increase or flat [8]. 2. Morning Meeting Views on Main Varieties 2.1 Agricultural Products - Peanut market is in a pattern of weak supply and demand, with prices expected to fluctuate slightly and show a downward trend in the long - term [10]. - On August 18, the sugar futures price rose, and considering the supply and demand situation, short - term long positions can be lightly established near the support level [10]. - Corn futures continued to be weak on August 18, and with a "double - weak" fundamental situation, existing short positions can be held, and new short positions can be established on rebounds [10]. - The spot price of live pigs was stable over the weekend, with a short - term upward trend, but the futures market is bearish [10]. - The spot price of eggs was stable with an upward tendency over the weekend, but the futures market may still decline to repair the basis [12]. - Cotton futures showed weak upward momentum, and with a supply - tight situation in the short - term and expected production increase in the long - term, the price may decline in the short - term [12]. 2.2 Energy and Chemicals - The domestic urea market price increased, and the futures price may fluctuate within the range of 1700 - 1800 yuan/ton [12]. - The price of caustic soda rose, and with the approaching peak demand season, a bullish trading strategy is recommended [12]. - The price of coking coal and coke fluctuated, and the market is in a state of multi - empty game [13]. 2.3 Industrial Metals - The price of copper may continue to oscillate, and the price of aluminum is expected to adjust at a high level [13]. - The supply of alumina increased, and the price is expected to fluctuate within a range [13]. - The price of steel products may fluctuate, with short - term adjustment pressure and medium - term upward momentum [13]. - The price of ferroalloys may fluctuate within a range with a rising center of gravity [15]. - The price of lithium carbonate futures rose, and long positions can be established near the support level [15]. 2.4 Options and Finance - For stock index options on August 18, the A - share market was strong, and different trading strategies are recommended for trend and volatility investors [16]. - In the short - term, for stock indices, attention should be paid to reducing positions in high - valuation and high - deviation indices. The current A - share market is in a slow - bull market, and low - buying opportunities can be sought during sharp declines [17][19].

中原期货研究咨询部 晨会纪要 2025 第（150）期 发布日期：2025-08-18 | 中原期货研究咨询部 | 0371-58620081 | | --- | --- | | 0371-58620083 | | | 公司官方微信 | | 0371-58620081 0371-58620083 公司官方微信 1 中原期货研究咨询部 | 化工 | 主力合约 | 2025/8/18 | 2025/8/17 | 涨跌 | 涨跌幅/% | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | | 8:00 | 15:00 | | | | | 焦煤 | 1,250.00 | 1,230.00 | 20.0 | 1.626 | | | 焦炭 | 1,755.00 | 1,729.50 | 25.50 | 1.474 | | | 天然橡胶 | 15,820.00 | 15,905.00 | -85.0 | -0.534 | | | 20号胶 | 12,640.00 | 12,710.00 | -70.0 | -0.551 | | | 塑料 | 7,355.00 | 7,351.00 | 4. ...

策略周报——2025.08.18 | | | 研究所 0371-58620086 | | --- | --- | --- | | 品种 | 逻辑 | 策略建议 | | 期权 | 本周 A 股延续上涨趋势，上证综指创 2022 年来新高，市场成 | 趋势投资者关注品种 | | | 交额连续三个交易日超过 2 万亿。沪深 300 指数均线多头排 | 间的强弱套利机会。 | | | 列，日三彩 K 线指标维持红色；周线二连阳，站上 250 周均 | 波动率投资者买入宽 | | | 线，周三彩 K 线指标维持红色。IF 期货当月合约转为升水标 | 跨式做多波动率。 | | | 的，次月合约转为升水当月合约。IO 期权成交量放大，八月 | | | | 阶段持仓量超过前三个月，期权成交量 PCR 下降，期权持仓 | | | | 量 PCR 先升后降，隐含波动率上升，标的指数突破看涨、看 | | | | 跌期权最大持仓量行权价，8 月合约到期交割结算价创 36 个 | | | | 月高点，行权率降低。中证 1000 指数日线站上 7100 点，日 | | | | 三彩 K 线指标维持红色；周线二连阳，周三彩 K 线指标维持 ...

Report Summary 1. Industry Investment Rating No industry investment rating is provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints - The central bank has carried out large - scale reverse repurchase operations, injecting medium - term liquidity, and the market expects the central bank to increase the volume of MLF renewal. The Fed's September interest - rate cut expectation has been frustrated due to high PPI data. Various industries are facing different situations, such as the shipping industry getting regulatory relaxation, the banking industry promoting "anti - involution" measures, and the express delivery industry showing growth in business volume and revenue [9][10][11]. - Different futures varieties have different trends. For example, some agricultural products are in a state of weak supply and demand, and energy - chemical products are affected by factors such as supply and demand and seasonal demand. Industrial metals are affected by factors such as supply guidance and inventory, and the option - financial market is affected by market sentiment and macro - data [6][14][19][20][23]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Chemicals - **Price Changes**: On August 15, 2025, compared with August 14, 2025, the prices of most chemical products changed. For example, methanol rose by 4.359% (from 2,340.00 to 2,442.00), while 20 - number rubber fell by 0.080% (from 12,490.00 to 12,480.00) [6]. 3.2 Macro - News - **Central Bank Operations**: The central bank carried out 500 billion yuan of 6 - month (182 - day) outright reverse repurchase operations on August 15, and the cumulative outright reverse repurchase operations this month have exceeded the renewal amount by 30 billion yuan. The market expects the central bank to increase the volume of MLF renewal after 300 billion yuan of MLF matures this month [9]. - **Fed Interest - Rate Cut Expectation**: The US July PPI soared, with a year - on - year increase of 3.3% and a month - on - month increase of 0.9%, frustrating the Fed's September interest - rate cut expectation. Some Fed officials oppose a 50 - basis - point rate cut in September [9]. - **Other News**: The State Council added a new K - type visa for foreign young scientific and technological talents. The National Data Bureau will introduce more than 10 systems such as data property rights. The financial regulatory authorities in some regions advocate "anti - involution" in the banking industry. The US President Trump relaxed commercial space regulations. The US Treasury Secretary clarified that he was not pressuring the Fed to cut interest rates. The express delivery business volume and revenue in July increased year - on - year. The first domestic commercial electron - beam lithography machine entered the application test [9][10][11]. 3.3 Morning Meeting Views on Main Varieties 3.3.1 Agricultural Products - **Peanuts**: The peanut market is in a state of weak supply and demand, with prices fluctuating slightly. In the short term, it is expected to fluctuate strongly, but the downward trend remains [14]. - **Sugar**: The sugar futures price is in a high - level shock. The US Department of Agriculture has raised the new - year sugar production forecast, but the concerns about Brazilian production and the Fed's interest - rate cut expectation support the raw sugar price. It is recommended to operate in the range of 5,650 - 5,680 yuan/ton [14]. - **Corn**: The corn futures price showed a rebound with a reduction in positions. The supply side has limited remaining grain in the Northeast, but the low - price listing of new - season corn in Jiangsu has a suppressing effect. The demand side is in a wait - and - see state. It is recommended to participate in the short - term rebound near the support level of 2,270 yuan [14]. - **Pigs**: The national pig price was stable with a slight increase. The supply side has enhanced resistance to price drops, and the demand side has improved. The futures market is in a pattern of near - term weakness and long - term strength, and is expected to fluctuate within a range [14]. - **Eggs**: The national egg spot price is stable. The spot market may rebound due to downstream stocking demand, but the futures market may fall to repair the basis. It is recommended to short on rebounds and conduct reverse spreads between months [14][15]. - **Cotton**: ICE US cotton futures rose and then fell. Zhengzhou cotton futures rose slightly. The cotton market sentiment is cautious, and the spot market has slightly improved. The cotton price is supported by factors such as tight commercial inventory and the conversion of demand from off - season to peak season. It is expected to fluctuate strongly in the short term [17]. 3.3.2 Energy - Chemicals - **Urea**: The domestic urea market price continued to decline slightly. The supply pressure is expected to increase, and the demand is weak. The futures price is expected to fluctuate weakly, and attention should be paid to the support level of 1,700 yuan/ton [19]. - **Caustic Soda**: The supply of caustic soda decreased this week, and the inventory decreased. With the arrival of the demand peak season in September, the demand has increased. It is recommended to pay attention to the 9 - 11 reverse spread [19][20]. - **Coking Coal and Coke**: The coking coal market is cautious, and the six - round price increase of coke has been implemented. The iron - water daily output has increased, and the decline of coking coal and coke prices is expected to slow down [20]. 3.3.3 Industrial Metals - **Copper and Aluminum**: The copper price continued to oscillate and consolidate due to the lack of favorable drivers. The aluminum inventory has exceeded 550,000 tons, and the price is expected to continue high - level adjustment [20]. - **Alumina**: The supply of alumina has increased, the demand is relatively stable, and the spot price has limited upward momentum. It is expected to continue to fluctuate within a range, and attention should be paid to the supply interference of bauxite [20]. - **Rebar and Hot - Rolled Coil**: The rebar night - session price fell, and the inventory increased. The hot - rolled coil production and demand both increased, and the inventory increase slowed down. The decline of the black - series is expected to slow down, and it will oscillate and adjust in the short term [20]. - **Ferroalloys**: The prices of ferrosilicon and ferromanganese fell. The supply of ferrosilicon and ferromanganese increased last week, and the demand was weak in the off - season. The alloy prices are expected to fluctuate within a range with a rising center of gravity [20][21]. - **Lithium Carbonate**: The futures and spot prices of lithium carbonate both strengthened. The supply is expected to increase in August, and the demand for cathode materials is also expected to increase. Attention should be paid to the support level of 85,000 yuan and the pressure level of 87,000 yuan. It is recommended to lay out long positions at low prices [21]. 3.3.4 Option - Financial - **Stock Index Options**: On August 14, the three major A - share indexes rose and then fell. The trading volume of the stock market exceeded 2 trillion yuan for two consecutive days. Different stock - index futures and options have different trends, and investors can pay attention to arbitrage opportunities and volatility strategies [21][23]. - **Stock Indexes**: The A - share market has been rising driven by liquidity, but there are signs of divergence and differentiation. The market may have short - term shock and pull - back pressure. It is not advisable to chase high, and it is recommended to enter the market at dips [23][25].

中原期货研究咨询部 晨会纪要 2025 第（148）期 发布日期：2025-08-14 | 中原期货研究咨询部 | 0371-58620081 | | --- | --- | | 0371-58620083 | | | 公司官方微信 | | 0371-58620081 0371-58620083 公司官方微信 1 中原期货研究咨询部 | 化工 | 主力合约 | 2025/8/14 | 2025/8/13 | 涨跌 | 涨跌幅/% | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | | 8:00 | 15:00 | | | | | 焦煤 | 1,236.50 | 1,245.00 | -8.50 | -0:683 | | | 焦炭 | 1,735.00 | 1,737.00 | -2.0 | -0:115 | | | 天然橡胶 | 15,875.00 | 15,800.00 | 75.0 | 0.475 | | | 20号胶 | 12,695.00 | 12,610.00 | 85.0 | 0.674 | | | 塑料 | 7,303.00 | 7,313.00 | -10. ...

中原期货研究咨询部 晨会纪要 2025 第（147）期 发布日期：2025-08-13 | 中原期货研究咨询部 | 0371-58620081 | | --- | --- | | 0371-58620083 | | | 公司官方微信 | | 0371-58620081 0371-58620083 公司官方微信 1 中原期货研究咨询部 | 化工 | 主力合约 | 2025/8/13 | 2025/8/12 | 涨跌 | 涨跌幅/% | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | | 8:00 | 15:00 | | | | | 焦煤 | 1,307.00 | 1,256.00 | 51.0 | 4.061 | | | 焦炭 | 1,796.00 | 1,681.00 | 115.0 | 6.841 | | | 天然橡胶 | 15,880.00 | 15,755.00 | 125.0 | 0.793 | | | 20号胶 | 12,725.00 | 12,620.00 | 105.0 | 0.832 | | | 塑料 | 7,325.00 | 7,314.00 | 11.0 ...