中原期货研究所：化工组 | 作者：刘培洋 | 研究助理：申文 | | --- | --- | | 执业证书编号：F0290318 | 执业证书编号： F03117458 | | 投资咨询编号：Z0011155 | 0371-58620081 | | liupy_qh@ccnew.com | shenwen_qh@ccnew.com | 投资咨询业务资格 证监发【2014】217号 纯碱玻璃周报——2025.04.07 01 周度观点汇总 3 1.1 纯碱周度观点——关注宏观影响及装置检修情况 品种 主要逻辑 策略建议 风险提示 纯碱 1.供应 装置开工率85.09%（+2.72%），氨碱法88.12%（环比+5.30%），联碱法79.71%（-6.83%)；周 产量71.30万吨（+2.28万吨），轻碱产量32.38万吨（+0.27万吨），重碱产量38.91万吨（+2.01 万吨）。 2.需求 纯碱表需64.16万吨（-10.64万吨），轻碱表需31.18万吨（-1.42万吨），重碱表需32.97万 吨（-9.23万吨）。 3.库存 纯碱企业库存170.14万吨（+1.59万吨），轻碱库存85.44万吨（+0 ...

作者： 刘培洋 联系方式：0371-58620083 电子邮箱：liupy_qh@ccnew.com 执业证书编号：F0290318 投资咨询编号：Z0011155 投资咨询业务资格 证监发【2014】217号 贸易摩擦加剧，铜铝大幅走弱 ——铜铝周报2025.04.07 本期观点 | 品种 | 主要逻辑 | 策略建议 | 风险提示 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | 1、宏观面：特朗普宣布对等关税，加征幅度超出市场预期，中国立 | 沪铜2506合约 | | | | 即加征关税进行反制。 | 上方参考压力 | 1、国内外宏 | | | 2、基本面：当前国内铜精矿加工费仍然处于负值，铜价高位回落后， | 位78000元/吨 | 观政策及经 | | 铜 | 终端消费有所恢复，社会库存延续性去库；截至4月3日，全国主流 | 一线，下方参 | 济数据变化； | | | 地区铜库存降至31.36万吨，连续五周去库。 | 考支撑位 | 2、国外铜矿 | | | 3、整体逻辑：美国挑起新一轮贸易摩擦，市场情绪偏弱，假期期间 | 73000元/吨一 | 供应因素。 | | | 外盘市场大幅下跌，C ...

Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided Core Viewpoints of the Report - The US government's tariff policy has a significant impact on global capital markets, with sharp declines in major indices such as the S&P 500, Nasdaq, and Saudi All-Share Index [7]. - China will impose a 34% tariff on all imported goods from the US starting from April 10, 2025, which is expected to affect the market sentiment of related products [12][19]. - The global manufacturing recovery is weakening, while China's consumer market is showing positive momentum in the first quarter [8]. - The performance of various commodities and financial markets is affected by factors such as supply and demand, policies, and macro - economic conditions, and investors need to pay attention to risks and opportunities [12][13][14][15][18][19][20] Summary by Directory Commodity Index Daily Market Tracking - **Stock Indices**: On April 7, 2025, compared with April 6, major global stock indices generally declined. The Dow Jones Industrial Index dropped by 5.503% to 38314.86, the Nasdaq Index fell by 5.817% to 15587.79, and the S&P 500 decreased by 5.975% to 5074.08. The Hang Seng Index declined by 1.520% to 22849.81 [2]. - **Currencies**: The SHIBOR overnight rate decreased by 7.916% to 1.62, the US dollar index dropped by 0.415% to 102.49, and the US dollar against the Chinese yuan (CFETS) remained unchanged at 7.30 [2]. - **Commodities**: Most commodities showed price declines. For example, COMEX gold decreased by 2.613% to 3056.10, COMEX silver fell by 7.518% to 29.53, and LME copper dropped by 7.223% to 8690.00. However, CBOT corn rose by 0.436% to 460.50 [2]. Macro - Economic News - **Global Market Impact**: The US tariff policy has led to significant drops in global stock markets, with the S&P 500 and Nasdaq falling more than 10% and 11% respectively in two days. Saudi All - Share Index tumbled 6.78%, and Saudi Aramco's market value evaporated about $90 billion [7]. - **Upcoming Events**: China will impose a 34% tariff on US goods starting from April 10; the EU plans to take comprehensive counter - measures against US tariffs; inflation data of China and the US in March will be released; the US earnings season will start; and the 2025 Global 6G Technology and Industry Ecology Conference will be held in Nanjing [7]. - **China's Economic Situation**: China is strengthening its opening - up legal system, attracting more international investors. The global manufacturing PMI in March was 49.6%, down 0.4 percentage points from the previous month. China's consumer market showed positive momentum in the first quarter, with the offline consumption heat index increasing by 14.2% year - on - year [8]. - **Regional Economic Developments**: In Zhejiang, manufacturing investment increased significantly from January to February. Hunan Province plans to develop a credible data space, aiming to have over 500 network nodes by 2028 [9]. Morning Meeting Views on Major Varieties Agricultural Products - **Peanuts**: The spot market is in a stalemate. With the tariff on US goods, the peanut market is expected to rise with oilseeds and meals [12]. - **Oils and Fats**: The tariff on US imports is expected to drive the oil and meal market to be bullish [12]. - **Sugar**: The price has broken through the previous range. Short - term buying on dips is recommended, but attention should be paid to the resistance at 6200 and the risk of price correction [12]. - **Corn**: The price has shown a stable rebound. Buying on dips is suggested, but beware of port inventory pressure and weak spot price follow - up [12]. - **Hogs**: The spot price is stable, and the futures contract is in a discount state, oscillating between 13500 - 14000. A 5 - 10 positive spread can be considered [12][14]. - **Eggs**: The spot price is stable. Attention should be paid to the price changes around holidays [14]. Energy and Chemicals - **Caustic Soda**: The 2505 contract may continue to be weak, but beware of short - term rebound due to position reduction [14]. - **Urea**: The price is stable with a slight weakness. The UR2505 contract is expected to trade between 1840 - 1930 yuan/ton. Unilateral operations should be cautious [14]. Industrial Metals - **Copper and Aluminum**: Affected by the US tariff policy, the prices of copper and aluminum have weakened. Copper and aluminum inventories have decreased [13][14][15]. - **Alumina**: The 2505 contract is expected to be weak, and beware of short - term rebound due to position reduction [15]. - **Steel Products**: The inventory of five major steel products is decreasing. The prices of steel products may continue to decline, and attention should be paid to the support levels of 3200 for rebar and 3300 for hot - rolled coils [15]. - **Ferroalloys**: Silicon iron and manganese silicon are expected to continue weak oscillations [15]. - **Coking Coal and Coke**: The prices may face pressure due to tariff sentiment, and they are in a weak oscillation at low levels [15]. - **Lithium Carbonate**: The price is in a weak oscillation. Short positions are recommended, but beware of over - decline rebound [15][16]. Options and Financial Markets - **Stock Market Performance**: On April 3, A - share indices closed lower. The US tariff policy has put pressure on the A - share market. The domestic market may remain weak in the short - term. Before a significant bottom - out with heavy trading volume, short - term volatility strategies can be considered; otherwise, combination arbitrage strategies of IF/IH and IC/IM can be used [18][19][20].

市场氛围偏弱，价格延续走弱 ——烧碱周报2025.04.07 作者： 刘培洋 联系方式：0371-58620083 电子邮箱：liupy_qh@ccnew.com 投资咨询业务资格 证监发【2014】217号 执业证书编号：F0290318 投资咨询编号：Z0011155 本期观点 | 品种 | 主要逻辑 | 策略建议 | 风险提示 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | 1、宏观：特朗普宣布对等关税，加征幅度超出市场预期，中国立即 | | | | | 加征关税进行反制。 | | | | | 2、供需面：华东地区华塑及江苏区域部分装置相继进入检修，预估 | | 1、国内外宏 | | | 影响产能达50万吨，但装置分布散且部分产能占比低，对市场供应 | 烧碱2505合约 | 观政策及经 | | | | 上方参考压力 | | | | 冲击有限，非铝需求端下游企业观望情绪浓，预估区域内碱价窄幅 | 位2700元/吨 | 济数据变化； | | 烧碱 | 调整。山东市场32%液碱供应有望回归，下游很多行业出现亏损，供 | | 2、企业装置 | | | 大于求的市场现状下，价格或许稳中下行。 | ...

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. Core View of the Report The "tariff" has impacted the commodity market, putting overall pressure on the black series. Although the steel market's supply - demand fundamentals have minor contradictions, influenced by macro - sentiment and expected weakening exports, steel prices are still in the bottom - seeking stage with large short - term fluctuations. All varieties in the black series are under pressure, and unilateral operations should be carried out with caution [3]. Summary by Directory 1. Market Review - Steel prices are under pressure due to weakening macro - sentiment. Last week, the five major steel products continued to reduce inventory. The decline in rebar inventory slightly increased, while that of hot - rolled coils slowed down. The "reciprocal tariff" led to strong market wait - and - see sentiment, pressuring the market and widening the basis [9]. - Examples of price changes: Rebar prices in Shanghai, Beijing, and Guangzhou decreased by 10 - 20 yuan/ton; hot - rolled coil prices in Shanghai, Tianjin, and Guangzhou decreased by 20 yuan/ton; the price of imported iron ore (PB powder 61.5%, Australia) at Qingdao Port decreased by 2 yuan/wet ton [9]. 2. Steel Supply - Demand Analysis - **Production**: National rebar weekly output was 228.65 million tons (up 0.54% MoM, 8.91% YoY), and hot - rolled coil weekly output was 322.7 million tons (down 0.63% MoM, 0.89% YoY). Rebar blast - furnace output increased, while electric - furnace output decreased [14][18]. - **Profit**: Rebar profit was +118 yuan/ton (up 2.61% MoM, down 0.84% YoY), and hot - rolled coil profit was +92 yuan/ton (up 17.95% MoM, down 59.29% YoY) [27]. - **Demand**: Rebar apparent consumption was 249.69 million tons (up 1.78% MoM, down 12.88% YoY), and hot - rolled coil apparent consumption was 332.32 million tons (down 1.88% MoM, up 0.57% YoY) [32]. - **Inventory**: Rebar total inventory was 798.07 million tons (down 2.57% MoM, 30.91% YoY), and hot - rolled coil total inventory was 386.34 million tons (down 2.43% MoM, 9.40% YoY) [37][42]. - **Downstream**: In the real - estate sector, the weekly transaction area of commercial housing in 30 large - and medium - sized cities decreased by 45.36% MoM and increased by 24.18% YoY in the lunar calendar. In the automotive sector, in February 2025, automobile production and sales were 2.103 million and 2.129 million respectively, down 14.1% and 12.2% MoM, and up 39.6% and 34.4% YoY [45][48]. 3. Iron Ore Supply - Demand Analysis - **Supply**: The shipment volume from 19 ports in Australia and Brazil was 23.93 million tons (down 9.62% MoM, 11.18% YoY), and the arrival volume at 45 iron - ore ports was 21.887 million tons (down 2.45% MoM, 10.19% YoY) [56]. - **Demand**: Daily hot - metal production was 2.3873 million tons (up 14,500 tons MoM, 151,500 tons YoY), and the port clearance volume at 45 iron - ore ports was 3.1756 million tons (up 1.39% MoM, down 1.77% YoY) [60]. - **Inventory**: The inventory at 45 iron - ore ports was 144.6841 million tons (down 0.36% MoM, up 0.11% YoY), and the imported iron - ore inventory of 247 steel enterprises was 91.7172 million tons (up 0.67% MoM, down 1.17% YoY) [65]. 4. Coking Coal and Coke Supply - Demand Analysis - **Supply**: The domestic coking coal mine operating rate slightly increased, and Mongolian coal customs clearance was at a high level. The coking coal mine operating rate was 86.32% (up 1.84% MoM, 1.74% YoY), and the coal - washing plant operating rate was 60.77% (down 1.97% MoM, 10.86% YoY) [71]. - **Coking Enterprise Situation**: The profit of independent coking plants per ton of coke was - 53 yuan/ton (down 3 yuan/ton MoM, up 72 yuan/ton YoY), and the capacity utilization rate was 72.68% (up 1.08% MoM, 12.46% YoY) [79]. - **Inventory**: Independent coking plants' coking coal inventory was 7.2993 million tons (up 5.62% MoM, 8.35% YoY), and coking coal port inventory was 3.4756 million tons (down 4.16% MoM, up 63.21% YoY). Independent coking plants' coke inventory was 663,700 tons (down 4.76% MoM, up 4.73% YoY), and coke port inventory was 2.1713 million tons (up 0.94% MoM, 14.65% YoY) [85][91]. - **Spot Price**: Coking coal prices slightly increased, and the game between steel and coking enterprises continued. The price of low - sulfur main coking coal in Shanxi was 1,290 yuan/ton (up 20 yuan/ton MoM, down 560 yuan/ton YoY) [97]. 5. Spread Analysis - Rebar basis widened, and the spread between rebar 05 - 10 contracts slightly widened. The spread between iron ore 05 - 09 contracts slightly widened [100][107].

中原期货研究所 公司官方微信 1 投资咨询业务资格 晨会纪要 2025 第（59）期 发布日期：2025-04-03 | 投资咨询业务资格 | | | | 商品指数每日市场跟踪 | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 证监发【2014】217 号 | | 宏观指标 | 2025/4/3 | 2025/4/2 | 涨 跌 | 涨跌幅/% | | | | | 08:00 | 15:00 | | | | | | 道琼斯工业指数 纳斯达克指数 | 42225.32 17601.05 | 41989.96 17449.89 | 235.360 151.160 | 0.561 0.866 | | 中原期货研究所 | | | | | | | | | | 标普500 | 5670.97 | 5633.07 | 37.90 | 0.673 | | 0371-58620081 | | 恒生指数 | 23202.53 | 23206.84 | -4.310 | -0.019 | | 0371-58620083 | | SHIBOR隔夜 | 1.76 | 1.82 | ...

中原期货研究所 晨会纪要 公司官方微信 1 投资咨询业务资格 证监发【2014】217 号 2025 第（58）期 发布日期：2025-04-02 | | | | 商品指数每日市场跟踪 | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 宏观指标 | | 2025/4/2 | 2025/4/1 | 涨 跌 | 涨跌幅/% | | | | 08:00 | 15:00 | | | | 道琼斯工业指数 | | 41989.96 | 42001.76 | -11.80 | -0.028 | | 纳斯达克指数 | | 17449.89 | 17299.29 | 150.60 | 0.871 | | 标普500 | | 5633.07 | 5611.85 | 21.220 | 0.378 | | 恒生指数 | | 23206.84 | 23119.58 | 87.260 | 0.377 | | SHIBOR隔夜 | | 1.82 | 1.74 | 0.084 | 4.830 | | 美元指数 | | 104.19 | 104.23 | -0.036 | -0.035 | | 美元兑 ...

中原期货研究所 晨会纪要 2025 第（57）期 发布日期：2025-04-01 | | | | 商品指数每日市场跟踪 | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 宏观指标 | | 2025/4/1 08:00 | 2025/3/31 15:00 | 涨 跌 | 涨跌幅/% | | 道琼斯工业指数 | | 42001.76 | 41583.90 | 417.860 | 1.005 | | 纳斯达克指数 | | 17299.29 | 17322.99 | -23.70 | -0.137 | | 标普500 | | 5611.85 | 5580.94 | 30.910 | 0.554 | | 恒生指数 | | 23119.58 | 23426.60 | -307.020 | -1.311 | | SHIBOR隔夜 | | 1.74 | 1.73 | 0.011 | 0.637 | | 美元指数 | | 104.18 | 104.19 | -0.009 | -0.009 | | 美元兑人民币(CFETS) | | 7.25 | 7.25 | 0 | 0 | | 主力合 ...

中原期货研究所 晨会纪要 2025 第（55）期 发布日期：2025-03-28 | 投资咨询业务资格 | | | | 商品指数每日市场跟踪 | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 证监发【2014】217 号 | 宏观指标 | | 2025/3/28 | 2025/3/27 | 涨 跌 | 涨跌幅/% | | | | | 08:00 | 15:00 | | | | | 道琼斯工业指数 | | 42299.70 | 42454.79 | -155.090 | -0.365 | | | 纳斯达克指数 | | 17804.03 | 17899.01 | -94.980 | -0.531 | | 中原期货研究所 | 标普500 | | 5693.31 | 5712.20 | -18.890 | -0.331 | | 0371-58620081 | 恒生指数 | | 23578.80 | 23483.32 | 95.480 | 0.407 | | | SHIBOR隔夜 | | 1.74 | 1.79 | -0.047 | -2.633 | | 0371- ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The market is in a wide - range oscillation pattern. With the approach of the performance disclosure period, funds may shift from high - risk to low - risk assets, choosing sectors with performance support and high dividends. The previous AI - driven valuation repair market may end, and the core of both US and Chinese stock markets lies in economic fundamentals competition. The consumption sector, with continuous policy support and improved consumption data, can be a focus area. Currently, the strategy is defensive, waiting for the impact of events such as Trump's tariff policy on April 2nd. Investors should lower return expectations and wait for the market to stabilize. For futures, pay attention to low - buying opportunities after short - term adjustments and combination arbitrage strategies [18]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Commodity Index Daily Market Tracking - **Stock Index**: On March 27, 2025, the Dow Jones Industrial Index was 42454.79, down 0.312% from the previous day; the Nasdaq Index was 17899.01, down 2.041%; the S&P 500 was 5712.20, down 1.116%; the Hang Seng Index was 23483.32, up 0.596% [2]. - **Interest Rate and Exchange Rate**: SHIBOR overnight was 1.79, up 0.01 from the previous day; the US dollar index was 104.63, up 0.086%; the US dollar against the Chinese yuan (CFETS) was 7.26, unchanged [2]. - **Commodity Futures (External Market)**: COMEX gold was 3026.60, up 0.013%; COMEX silver was 34.21, down 0.117%; LME copper was 9907.00, down 1.857%; LME aluminum was 2605.00, down 0.115%; etc. [2]. - **Commodity Futures (Domestic Market)**: Gold was 708.84, down 0.025%; silver was 8355.00, down 0.131%; copper was 81520.00, down 0.585%; etc. [2]. - **Chemical Futures**: Coking coal was 1038.00, up 1.219%; coke was 1633.50, up 1.114%; natural rubber was 16905.00, unchanged; etc. [4]. - **Agricultural Futures**: Yellow soybean No.1 was 3880.00, up 0.077%; yellow soybean No.2 was 3450.00, up 0.262%; soybean meal was 2827.00, up 0.248%; etc. [4]. 3.2 Macro - economic News - **Sino - US Economic and Trade Relations**: Chinese Vice - Premier He Lifeng had a video call with US Trade Representative Greer, expressing concerns about US tariff policies. The Ministry of Commerce opposed the US adding Chinese entities to the export control "Entity List" [6]. - **Oil Price**: International oil prices rose across the board, with US crude oil May contract up 1.36% to $69.94 per barrel and Brent crude oil June contract up 1.31% to $73.34 per barrel [6]. - **Consumption Policy**: The Ministry of Commerce issued measures to support the cultivation and construction of international consumption - center cities [6]. - **Tariff Policy**: Trump announced a 25% tariff on non - US - made cars, and tariffs on the pharmaceutical and timber industries [7]. - **Carbon Emission Trading**: The national carbon emission trading market expanded to include the steel, cement, and aluminum smelting industries, covering over 60% of the country's total carbon dioxide emissions [7]. - **Monetary Policy**: Fed's Goolsbee warned that higher inflation expectations in the bond market could disrupt the central bank's rate - cut plan [7]. - **Exchange Rate**: On March 27, the on - shore Chinese yuan against the US dollar closed at 7.2635, up 5 basis points from the previous day [7]. - **Housing Policy**: Weihai, Shandong, and other regions introduced policies to promote housing consumption [8]. 3.3 Morning Meeting Views on Major Varieties 3.3.1 Agricultural Products - **Peanuts**: The spot market is stable but weak. Farmers are reluctant to sell, and the market is in a supply - demand game. It is recommended to short on rebounds [10]. - **Oils and Fats**: The trading volume of oils and fats decreased by 17% compared to the previous trading day. The Brazilian soybean export forecast remains unchanged, and the market is expected to oscillate. High - selling and low - buying strategies are recommended [10]. - **Sugar**: The sugar futures were strong on March 26, but the spot price was under pressure. The market is multi - faceted, and attention should be paid to the start of the new Brazilian sugar - cane season. It is recommended to be cautious when going long above 6100 yuan/ton [10]. - **Corn**: The corn futures closed down on March 26. The market is affected by both supply and demand factors. It is recommended to wait and see, with support at 2250 yuan/ton and resistance at 2280 - 2300 yuan/ton [10]. - **Pigs**: The national pig price fluctuated. The supply side reduced sales, and the demand side was weak. The spot price is expected to be stable and slightly strong, and the futures will oscillate in a range [12]. - **Eggs**: The national egg spot price was stable. The supply increased, and the demand weakened. The futures are seasonally weak, and the medium - term strategy is short - biased [12]. 3.3.2 Energy and Chemicals - **Caustic Soda**: The spot price of caustic soda in Shandong decreased. The market is bearish, and the 2505 contract may continue to be weak, with a risk of short - term rebound [12]. - **Urea**: The domestic urea market price was stable and slightly strong. With some enterprises under maintenance and continuous demand, the inventory decreased. The UR2505 contract may continue to oscillate strongly, with resistance at 1930 yuan/ton [12]. 3.3.3 Industrial Metals - **Copper and Aluminum**: The copper price may continue to be strong due to factors such as inventory decline and tariff and interest - rate expectations. The aluminum price remained high due to the "Golden March and Silver April" effect. The alumina market is in oversupply, and the 2505 contract is weak [13]. - **Steel Products**: The night - session prices of rebar and hot - rolled coil increased slightly. The spot market had a certain price - support intention, and the overall inventory pressure was limited. The steel price will oscillate, and attention should be paid to short - long opportunities in the October contract and 5 - 10 reverse arbitrage [14]. - **Ferroalloys**: The silicon - manganese market sentiment was weak, and the silicon - iron market was also weak. Both are in low - level oscillations [15]. - **Coking Coal and Coke**: The prices of coking coal and coke were stable at a low level. Attention should be paid to steel mills' profits and production restocking [17]. - **Lithium Carbonate**: The lithium carbonate futures closed up on March 26, but the market is in a weak supply - demand situation. It is recommended to short on rebounds, with resistance at 75000 yuan/ton and support at 73000 yuan/ton [17]. 3.3.4 Options and Finance - **Stock Index**: A - share indexes oscillated on March 26. The market sentiment was relatively low. The consumption sector can be a focus, and the strategy is defensive. Pay attention to low - buying opportunities and combination arbitrage strategies [18]. - **Options**: On March 26, A - share indexes oscillated. The trading volume of the stock market shrank. Different index futures and options had different performance in terms of price, position, and implied volatility. Trend investors can consider bullish spread strategies or arbitrage strategies, and volatility investors can sell wide - straddles to short volatility [19].