Group 1: Investment Rating - No investment rating for the industry is provided in the report. Group 2: Core Viewpoints - The egg market has entered a seasonal peak season, with futures and spot prices rising in tandem. Although the number of laying hens in production remains high, new replenishment has slowed down, and the elimination of backward production capacity has accelerated from June to July. Coupled with the recent high - temperature weather, the overall energy efficiency has decreased, and the effective market supply has slowed down. With the arrival of the tourist season and the departure of the rainy season, market stocking enthusiasm has increased, leading to a phased futures - spot linkage rebound. It is recommended to buy on dips and pay attention to reverse spread opportunities [3]. Group 3: Summary by Directory Futures - Last week, egg futures rebounded. Previously, the continuous rise in spot prices did not drive the futures up, mainly due to the premium of the futures over the spot, the concentrated delivery pressure in July, and the high inventory supply. However, the high - temperature weather broke through these constraints, initiating a seasonal peak - season rebound [6]. Spot - Last week, egg spot prices rose across the board. Due to the high - temperature weather, the egg - laying rate decreased, the upstream inventory was low, and the market had a strong price - supporting mentality. The downstream, affected by the previous spot price correction, had low inventory and little stocking. The downstream's concentrated procurement led to a tight supply - demand situation and continuous price increases. The spot prices in other production areas in the country have returned to the mid - June high of about 3 yuan per catty. The subsequent rise in spot prices still depends on the support from the demand side [13]. Supply - **New Capacity**: The new production capacity from June to August 2025 corresponds to the replenishment volume from February to April 2025, which is basically at a high level and higher than the historical average. - **Eliminated Capacity**: The normal eliminated capacity from June to August 2025 corresponds to the replenishment volume from October 2023 to January 2024, and the available elimination volume is relatively neutral. - **Laying Hens in Production**: The inventory of laying hens in production remains high. The new capacity is increasing steadily, and the new replenishment has slowed down. The available elimination volume this month is decreasing steadily. Data shows that the backward production capacity has started the active elimination stage, but at a relatively slow pace. Overall, the supply pressure still exists [16]. Elimination - The price of culled chickens is 4.9 yuan per catty, an increase of 0.29 yuan per catty. As the egg price rises, it rebounds and enters a seasonal strengthening trend. The elimination volume has been rising and is gradually reaching its peak and then falling. As the egg price is about to rise, the elimination will slow down. The average elimination age is 502 days, remaining the same, and the overall age has entered the normal range [21]. Seasonal and Substitute Products - Seasonally, with the arrival of the tourist season and the increasing demand for deep - processing, there may be a turnaround in mid - July. The inventory pressure in production areas is not large, but the high - temperature weather has reduced the egg - laying rate and increased costs. On the consumption side, after the rainy season, the overall demand has improved. - In terms of substitute products, the high - temperature weather has reduced the vegetable supply and increased vegetable prices, which support the egg price to some extent. The pork price is oscillating at a high level, and its substitution effect on eggs is not obvious. Other meat prices have strengthened in stages [23][25]. Cost and Profit - **Cost**: Corn prices are running at a high level, and the spot price of soybean meal is falling steadily. The overall cost remains volatile. Currently, the feed cost is about 2.5 yuan per catty, and the comprehensive breeding cost is about 2.8 yuan per catty. - **Profit**: Recently, egg prices have risen, and the spot price has returned above the feed cost. However, the overall comprehensive breeding profit is still in the red, but it has bottomed out seasonally. The negative feedback on production capacity caused by the profit loss is gradually taking effect, and attention should be paid to the elimination of backward production capacity [28][29]. Capital and Market Sentiment - Capital is at a high level, and market competition has intensified. Short - sellers believe that due to the high production capacity and seasonal suppression, there is still room for the price to fall. Long - sellers believe that the valuation is low, and the season is about to turn from weak to strong, making it valuable to go long [32]. Basis and Spread - **Basis**: The basis is negative, and the overall futures are at a premium. The market expectation is positive. Currently, the basis is running at a low level, waiting for the strengthening trend of the basis brought by the active peak season. - **Spread**: In the future, as the production capacity in the cycle decreases, reverse spreads in the cycle are the main strategy [34][37].

Report Title - The report is titled "Soda Ash and Glass Weekly Report - 2025.07.21" and is from the Research and Consulting Department of Zhongyuan Futures [1] Report Author - The author is Shen Wen, with a practice certificate number of F03117458 and an investment consulting number of Z0022654. Contact information includes an email (shenwen_qh@ccnew.com) and a phone number (0371 - 58620081) [2] Report Industry Investment Rating - No industry investment rating is provided in the report Core Views Soda Ash - The short - term futures price of soda ash shows a relatively strong trend due to the significant impact of macro - policy expectations on the commodity market sentiment. The weekly production of soda ash has rebounded, and the inventory of soda ash plants has accumulated to a new high in the same period of previous years. The apparent demand has increased from a decline, but the combined daily melting volume of float glass and photovoltaic glass has decreased. The daily melting volume of float glass is expected to rise, while the photovoltaic glass capacity still has a reduction expectation [5] Glass - Macro - policy expectations strongly boost the glass futures market, and the futures price may continue to fluctuate with a relatively strong trend. The supply of glass has limited changes, and the output is expected to increase as some previously ignited production lines start to produce. The futures price increase has stimulated the replenishment of middle and lower - stream enterprises, but the orders of deep - processing enterprises have not improved significantly, and the order days are still at a relatively low level year - on - year [6] Summary by Directory 01 Weekly View Summary 1.1 Soda Ash Weekly View - **Supply**: The plant operating rate is 84.10% (a week - on - week increase of 2.78%), with the ammonia - soda method at 87.70% (a week - on - week increase of 5.13%) and the combined - soda method at 73.93% (a week - on - week increase of 3.60%). The weekly production is 73.32 tons (a week - on - week increase of 2.42 tons), with light soda ash production at 31.85 tons (an increase of 0.97 tons) and heavy soda ash production at 41.47 tons (an increase of 1.45 tons) [5] - **Demand**: The apparent demand for soda ash is 69.10 tons (an increase of 3.59 tons), with light soda ash at 32.23 tons (an increase of 0.45 tons) and heavy soda ash at 33.28 tons (an increase of 3.14 tons) [5] - **Inventory**: The inventory of soda ash enterprises is 190.56 tons (an increase of 2.16 tons), with light soda ash inventory at 78.3 tons (a decrease of 0.71 tons) and heavy soda ash inventory at 112.26 tons (an increase of 2.87 tons) [5] 1.2 Glass Weekly View - **Supply**: The daily melting volume of float glass is 15.78 tons, a 0.38% decrease compared to the 10th. There are 296 glass production lines in China, with 223 in production and 73 cold - repaired and shut down. The daily melting volume of photovoltaic glass is 8.90 tons, a week - on - week decrease of 3.21% [6] - **Inventory**: The total inventory of national float glass sample enterprises is 64.939 million heavy cases, a week - on - week decrease of 2.163 million heavy cases (a decrease of 3.22%) and a year - on - year increase of 0.29%. The inventory days are 27.9 days, a decrease of 1.0 day compared to the previous period [6] - **Demand**: As of July 15, 2025, the average order days of national deep - processing sample enterprises is 9.3 days, a week - on - week decrease of 2.1% and a year - on - year decrease of 7.0% [6] 02 Variety Details Decomposition 2.1 Market Review - Spot Price - The domestic spot price of soda ash fluctuates weakly and stably. As of July 17, 2025, the market price of heavy soda ash in the central China region is 1200 yuan/ton, and the light soda ash is 1100 yuan/ton, with a price difference of 100 yuan/ton. In the northern China region, the heavy soda ash market price is 1300 yuan/ton, and the light soda ash is 1180 yuan/ton, with a price difference of 120 yuan/ton [11] - The main contract price of soda ash is consolidating at a high level. As of July 17, 2025, the basis of soda ash in the Shahe area is - 10 yuan/ton (unchanged from last week). The glass futures price fluctuates strongly, and the glass basis in the Shahe area is - 36 yuan/ton (a week - on - week decrease of 9 yuan/ton) [14] 2.1 Market Review - Spread - As of July 17, 2025, the 9 - 1 spread of soda ash is - 46 yuan/ton (a week - on - week decrease of 8 yuan/ton); the 9 - 1 spread of glass is - 76 yuan/ton (a week - on - week decrease of 14 yuan/ton); the glass - soda ash arbitrage spread is 133 yuan/ton (a week - on - week decrease of 15 yuan/ton) [19] 2.2 Fundamentals - Supply - The weekly production of soda ash is 73.32 tons (a week - on - week increase of 2.42 tons), with light soda ash production at 31.85 tons (an increase of 0.97 tons) and heavy soda ash production at 41.47 tons (an increase of 1.45 tons). As the maintenance devices of soda ash plants resume production one after another, the supply of soda ash is expected to increase [25] - Some domestic soda ash enterprises are scheduled for maintenance. For example, Ningxia Risheng's production capacity has been reduced to 50% since July 15, 2025, and it plans to carry out maintenance for a month; Zhongyuan Chemical's third - phase is expected to be maintained for about 10 days starting from July 20; Xuzhou Fengcheng is expected to be maintained for 21 days starting from July 21; Gansu Jinchang is expected to be maintained for a month starting from July 26 [28] - The comprehensive capacity utilization rate of soda ash this week is 84.10%, a week - on - week increase of 2.78%. Among them, the ammonia - soda capacity utilization rate is 87.70%, a week - on - week increase of 5.13%, and the combined - production capacity utilization rate is 73.93%, a week - on - week increase of 3.60% [34] 2.2 Fundamentals - Inventory - As of July 17, 2025, the inventory of soda ash enterprises is 190.56 tons (an increase of 2.16 tons), with light soda ash inventory at 78.3 tons (a decrease of 0.71 tons) and heavy soda ash inventory at 112.26 tons (an increase of 2.87 tons) [38] - The total inventory of national float glass sample enterprises is 64.939 million heavy cases, a week - on - week decrease of 2.163 million heavy cases (a decrease of 3.22%) and a year - on - year increase of 0.29%. The inventory days are 27.9 days, a decrease of 1.0 day compared to the previous period. As of July 15, 2025, the average order days of national deep - processing sample enterprises is 9.3 days, a week - on - week decrease of 2.1% and a year - on - year decrease of 7.0% [49] 2.2 Fundamentals - Profit - As of July 17, 2025, the theoretical profit of ammonia - soda method soda ash in China is - 83 yuan/ton, a week - on - week decrease of 1 yuan/ton; the theoretical profit (double - ton) of combined - soda method soda ash is - 33 yuan/ton, a week - on - week increase of 6 yuan/ton [52]

Report Title - "Domestic 'Anti-Involution' Drives Market Sentiment Upward - Copper and Aluminum Weekly Report 2025.07.21" [1] Report Author - Liu Peiyang [2] Report Ratings - Not provided in the content Core Views Copper - Macro: The Ministry of Industry and Information Technology will issue a new round of plans to stabilize the growth of non-ferrous metals, providing some support. Overseas tariff policies are fluctuating, and the Fed's interest rate cut path needs further observation [3]. - Fundamental: Although LME copper inventories have increased slightly, they remain at historical lows. Demand has weakened significantly as prices rebounded, showing a phased supply - demand weakness due to the traditional off - season [3]. - Overall: The impact of tariff shocks on copper prices is gradually digested. After prices stabilize, a bullish approach is recommended [3]. Electrolytic Aluminum - Macro: The Ministry of Industry and Information Technology will issue a new round of plans to stabilize the growth of non-ferrous metals, providing some support. Overseas tariff policies are fluctuating, and the Fed's interest rate cut path needs further observation [5]. - Fundamental: With the release of supply increments and the suppression of the consumption off - season, the expectation of inventory accumulation is still strong [5]. - Overall: The improvement of domestic macro expectations significantly boosts industrial products. Aluminum prices are expected to remain high and fluctuate [5]. Alumina - Macro: The Ministry of Industry and Information Technology will issue a new round of plans to stabilize the growth of non-ferrous metals, providing some support. Overseas tariff policies are fluctuating, and the Fed's interest rate cut path needs further observation [7]. - Fundamental: In the week of July 17, the operating capacity of alumina increased by 500,000 tons/year to 89.07 million tons/year, and the weekly inventory of alumina in electrolytic aluminum plants increased by about 25,800 tons, putting some pressure on spot prices [7]. - Overall: The expectation of supply - side reform and the decline of warehouse receipts to a low level. Alumina breaks through the low - level oscillation range upwards, and a bullish approach is recommended [7]. Summary by Directory 1. Market Review - **Weekly Price Changes**: Provided the weekly cumulative price change statistics of various metals from July 14 - 18 [14]. - **Weekly News**: The Ministry of Industry and Information Technology will implement a new round of plans to stabilize the growth of ten key industries, including non-ferrous metals. In the first half of the year, the non-ferrous metal industry had positive growth in production, revenue, and profit, and its green - low - carbon level improved significantly. Chile will discuss the impact of US copper tariffs. LME's 8 Hong Kong approved warehousing facilities started operation. Kazakhstan plans to restrict the export of certain key products and cancel the export tariff on gallium [15]. 2. Macro Analysis - **Domestic**: In Q2 2025, GDP grew by 5.2% year - on - year. In June, industrial added value increased by 6.8% year - on - year, and social retail sales increased by 4.8% year - on - year. From January to June, fixed - asset investment increased by 2.8% year - on - year. Exports supported industrial production, but real estate investment declined further [19]. - **Overseas**: In June, the US CPI increased by 2.7% year - on - year, and the core CPI increased by 2.9% year - on - year. After the CPI release, the US dollar index and Treasury yields rose, and the expectation of interest rate cuts decreased slightly [22]. 3. Copper Market Analysis - **Spot Market**: The processing fee TC remained weak [28]. - **Futures Market**: COMEX's net long positions increased [31]. - **Overseas Market**: The US dollar index rebounded from a low level [35]. - **Inventory**: As of July 17, SMM's national mainstream copper inventories decreased by 4,300 tons to 143,300 tons compared to Monday, and were 231,800 tons lower than the same period last year [41]. 4. Electrolytic Aluminum Market Analysis - **Domestic Market**: The spot premium widened [44]. - **Foreign Market**: The US dollar index rebounded from a low level [48]. - **Inventory**: The report provided data on electrolytic aluminum and aluminum rod social inventories, as well as LME and SHFE aluminum inventories [50]. - **Downstream开工**: As of July 17, the overall operating rate of domestic aluminum downstream processing industries increased by 0.2 percentage points to 58.8%. Different sectors had different trends, and SMM expected the weekly operating rate to decline by 0.1 percentage points to 58.7% this week [52]. - **Recycled Aluminum Alloy**: As of July 17, the SMM ADC12 price decreased by 100 yuan/ton to 20,000 yuan/ton. The industry faced cost and demand challenges, and prices were expected to fluctuate narrowly [56]. - **Cost and Profit**: The report analyzed the relationship between the price of electrolytic aluminum and the prices of alumina, pre - baked anodes, and thermal coal [60]. 5. Alumina Market Analysis - **Spot Market**: Spot prices remained stable [63]. - **Futures Market**: Inventory futures continued to decline [65]. - **Supply and Demand**: Supply changed little, with some areas having tight supply due to maintenance. Demand increased as some electrolytic aluminum enterprises resumed production or transferred capacity [70]. - **Cost and Profit**: As of the week of July 17, the domestic alumina industry cost was 2,995.43 yuan/ton, and the average profit was 193.15 yuan/ton [71].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core View of the Report - In the short term, steel prices will maintain a volatile and upward - trending pattern. The medium - term strategy is still to go long on dips. The prices of iron ore and coking coal and coke are also expected to maintain a volatile and upward - trending pattern [3][4][5]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Market Review - Last week, against the backdrop of multiple policy expectations, the black - series commodities rose across the board. In the industry, inventory accumulation in the off - season was less than expected, demand showed certain resilience, and the increase in hot metal production provided continuous support to the raw material end. Both futures and spot prices rose [9]. 3.2 Steel Supply and Demand Analysis - **Production**: The weekly production of rebar was 209.06 million tons (down 3.51% week - on - week and 6.45% year - on - year), and that of hot - rolled coil was 321.14 million tons (down 0.62% week - on - week and 1.80% year - on - year). The blast furnace and electric furnace production of rebar both decreased. The blast furnace weekly production of rebar was 182.67 million tons (down 3.73% week - on - week and 8.82% year - on - year), and the electric furnace weekly production was 26.39 million tons (down 1.97% week - on - week and up 14.09% year - on - year) [15][17][22]. - **Operating Rate**: The blast furnace operating rate remained stable at 83.46% (up 0.37% week - on - week and 1.16% year - on - year), and the electric furnace operating rate increased to 65.08% (up 2.34% week - on - week and down 0.43% year - on - year) [27]. - **Profit**: The profit of rebar was + 171 yuan/ton (down 12.76% week - on - week and up 170 yuan/ton year - on - year), and the profit of hot - rolled coil was + 146 yuan/ton (up 2.82% week - on - week and up 151 yuan/ton year - on - year) [31]. - **Demand**: The apparent consumption of rebar was 206.17 million tons (down 6.92% week - on - week and 9.18% year - on - year), and the 5 - day average of national building materials transactions was 9.50 million tons (down 3.36% week - on - week and 24.97% year - on - year). The apparent consumption of hot - rolled coil was 323.79 million tons (up 0.40% week - on - week and down 1.27% year - on - year) [36]. - **Inventory**: The total rebar inventory was 543.26 million tons (up 0.53% week - on - week and down 29.50% year - on - year), with the factory inventory at 173.1 million tons (down 4.30% week - on - week and 6.44% year - on - year) and the social inventory at 370.16 million tons (up 2.97% week - on - week and down 30.83% year - on - year). The total hot - rolled coil inventory was 342.91 million tons (down 0.77% week - on - week and 18.97% year - on - year), with the factory inventory at 77.31 million tons (down 0.64% week - on - week and 16.41% year - on - year) and the social inventory at 265.6 million tons (down 0.80% week - on - week and 20.56% year - on - year) [40][45]. - **Downstream Industries**: The weekly data showed that the transaction area of commercial housing in 30 large - and medium - sized cities decreased by 9.48% week - on - week and 24.57% year - on - year, and the transaction area of land in 100 large - and medium - sized cities decreased by 51.47% week - on - week and 66.40% year - on - year. In June 2025, automobile production and sales reached 2.794 million and 2.904 million respectively, with month - on - month increases of 5.5% and 8.1% and year - on - year increases of 11.4% and 13.8% respectively. From January to June 2025, automobile production and sales reached 15.621 million and 15.653 million respectively, with year - on - year increases of 12.5% and 11.4% respectively [48][51]. 3.3 Iron Ore Supply and Demand Analysis - **Supply**: The iron ore price index was 99.85 (up 1.75% week - on - week and down 4.46% year - on - year). The shipments from 19 ports in Australia and Brazil were 24.79 million tons (down 0.77% week - on - week and up 4.05% year - on - year), and the arrivals at 45 ports were 23.712 million tons (down 10.93% week - on - week and 0.21% year - on - year) [58]. - **Demand**: The daily hot metal production was 2.4244 million tons (up 263,000 tons week - on - week and 279,000 tons year - on - year), the ore handling volume at 45 ports was 3.2274 million tons (up 1.01% week - on - week and 2.83% year - on - year), and the inventory - to - sales ratio of 247 steel enterprises was 29.29 days (down 2.63% week - on - week and 6.99% year - on - year) [63]. - **Inventory**: The inventory at 45 ports was 137.8521 million tons (up 0.14% week - on - week and down 9.78% year - on - year), the imported iron ore inventory of 247 steel enterprises was 88.2216 million tons (down 1.75% week - on - week and 4.46% year - on - year), and the average available days of iron ore for 114 steel enterprises was 22.94 days (down 1.88% week - on - week and up 9.03% year - on - year) [69]. 3.4 Coking Coal and Coke Supply and Demand Analysis - **Supply**: The operating rate of coking coal mines was 86.07% (up 0.64% week - on - week and down 2.25% year - on - year), the operating rate of coal washing plants was 62.85% (up 0.85% week - on - week and down 5.35% year - on - year), and the daily Mongolian coal customs clearance volume was 140,800 tons (up 260% week - on - week and 7.74% year - on - year) [75]. - **Coking Enterprises**: The profit per ton of coke for independent coking plants was - 43 yuan/ton (up 20 yuan/ton week - on - week and down 76 yuan/ton year - on - year), the capacity utilization rate of independent coking plants was 73.01% (up 0.19% week - on - week and down 2.04% year - on - year), and the capacity utilization rate of steel mill coke was 86.84% (down 0.21% week - on - week and 0.24% year - on - year) [84]. - **Coking Coal Inventory**: The coking coal inventory of independent coking plants was 7.902 million tons (up 4.99% week - on - week and 4.01% year - on - year), the coking coal inventory of steel mills was 7.9093 million tons (up 1.05% week - on - week and 6.34% year - on - year), and the coking coal inventory at ports was 3.215 million tons (down 0.04% week - on - week and up 22.01% year - on - year) [90]. - **Coke Inventory**: The coke inventory of independent coking plants was 555,500 tons (down 6.76% week - on - week and up 57.77% year - on - year), the coke inventory of steel mills was 6.3899 million tons (up 0.19% week - on - week and 15.72% year - on - year), and the coke inventory at ports was 1.9911 million tons (down 0.49% week - on - week and 1.60% year - on - year) [96]. - **Spot Price**: After the first round of coke price increase, the second round of increase has started. The price of low - sulfur main coking coal in Shanxi was 1,300 yuan/ton (up 100 yuan/ton week - on - week and down 620 yuan/ton year - on - year), and the ex - factory price of quasi - first - grade metallurgical coke in Lvliang was 1,030 yuan/ton (up 50 yuan/ton week - on - week and down 770 yuan/ton year - on - year) [102]. 3.5 Spread Analysis - The basis of rebar widened, and the 10 - 1 spread of rebar continued to shrink. The 9 - 1 spread of iron ore widened, and the spread between hot - rolled coil and rebar widened significantly [104][109].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The Ministry of Industry and Information Technology will issue a new round of plans to stabilize the growth of the non - ferrous metal industry, providing some support to the market. Overseas tariff policies are fluctuating, and the path of the Fed's interest rate cuts still needs to be observed [4]. - In the supply - demand aspect, the maintenance devices in the East China region are gradually resuming this week, with abundant supply. The off - season of non - aluminum demand continues, and the market lacks substantial positive drivers. After the price increase of liquid caustic soda in Shandong Province, downstream buyers are resistant to high prices, and the shipment slows down. After the previous maintenance devices resume production one after another, the supply increases [4]. - There is strong cost support below for caustic soda. The domestic "anti - involution" drives the collective strengthening of market sentiment. Attention should be paid to whether the spot price can be synchronized with the performance of futures. Once the futures price has a high premium over the spot price, be vigilant against the risk of decline [4]. 3. Summary According to the Directory 3.1 Market Review 3.1.1 Spot Market - The price of Shandong liquid caustic soda rebounded, and the basis of Shandong 32% liquid caustic soda widened [9][12]. - From July 11 - 17, 2025, in the chlor - alkali industry chain, the price of 32% ion - membrane caustic soda in Shandong dropped from 840 yuan/ton to 820 yuan/ton, a decrease of 2.44%; the price of 50% ion - membrane caustic soda dropped from 1370 yuan/ton to 1330 yuan/ton, a decrease of 3.01%; the price of 98% flake caustic soda in the northwest increased from 3030 yuan/ton to 3050 yuan/ton, an increase of 0.66%; the price of liquid chlorine in Shandong increased from - 300 yuan/ton to - 550 yuan/ton, an increase of 45.45%; the price of alumina in Shandong decreased from 3140 yuan/ton to 3130 yuan/ton, a decrease of 0.32% [18]. 3.1.2 Futures Market - The report presents the price trends of caustic soda futures' active contracts compared with soda ash, alumina, and PVC futures' active contracts, as well as the relationship between the number of caustic soda futures' warehouse receipts and the continuous closing price [16]. 3.2 Market Analysis 3.2.1 Supply Side - Production and Operating Rate: From July 11 - 17, 2025, the average operating rate of China's sample enterprises with a caustic soda production capacity of 200,000 tons and above was 82.6%, a month - on - month increase of 2.2%. The operating rates in North China, East China, Northeast China, and South China increased to varying degrees, while that in Central China decreased. Longzhong estimates that the operating rate of caustic soda this week will be around 84.7%, and the weekly output will be around 829,600 tons [22]. - Enterprise Maintenance: The report lists the maintenance situations of multiple enterprises in different regions, including the maintenance capacity, maintenance start date, and expected restart date [23]. 3.2.2 Downstream - Alumina - As of July 17, 2025, China's alumina production capacity was 114.8 million tons, and the operating production capacity was 93.2 million tons. The supply change of alumina was limited during the week. Some enterprises' roasting furnaces completed maintenance, while some were still under maintenance, resulting in a temporary supply shortage in some areas, which supported the price [25]. 3.2.3 Inventory - As of July 17, 2025, the factory inventory of fixed liquid caustic soda sample enterprises with a production capacity of 200,000 tons and above was 383,900 wet tons, a month - on - month increase of 2.56% and a year - on - year increase of 1.78%. The inventory ratio of national liquid caustic soda sample enterprises was 22.24%, a month - on - month increase of 0.61%. Except for the Northeast and South China regions where the inventory ratio decreased month - on - month, the inventory ratios in North China, Central China, East China, Northwest China, and Southwest China increased month - on - month [30]. 3.2.4 Liquid Chlorine - As of July 17, 2025, the price of liquid chlorine in Shandong first rose and then fell, with a weekly average price of - 407 yuan/ton, a month - on - month increase of 2%. As of July 18, 2025, China's PVC operating rate was 77.59%, a month - on - month increase of 0.62%. It is expected that the PVC operating rate this week will be 79.65%, and the overall supply will increase next week [34]. - During the week of July 11 - 17, 2025, the average weekly profit of Shandong chlor - alkali enterprises was 130 yuan/ton, showing an upward trend [35].

【中原化工】 宏观扰动增强，出口需求仍有支撑 ——尿素周报2025.07.21 中原期货研究咨询部 作者：申文 执业证书编号：F03117458 投资咨询编号：Z0022654 shenwen_qh@ccnew.com 0371-58620081 01 周度观点汇总 1.1 尿素周度观点——宏观扰动增强，出口需求仍有支撑 3 02 品种详情分解 2.1 本周国内尿素市场价格弱势运行 1000 1500 2000 2500 3000 3500 1月1日 1月17 日 2月2日 2月18 日 3月5日 3月21 日 4月6日 4月22 日 5月8日 5月24 日 6月9日 6月25 日 7月11 日 7月27 日 8月12 日 8月28 日 9月13 日 9月29 日 10 月15 日 10 月31 日 11 月16 日 12 月2日 12 月18 日 山东市场价 2021年 2022年 2023年 2024年 2025年 1000 1500 2000 2500 3000 3500 1月1日 1月17 日 2月2日 2月18 日 3月5日 3月21 日 4月6日 4月22 日 5月8日 5月24 日 6月9日 6 ...

中原期货研究咨询部 2025 第（131）期 发布日期：2025-07-21 | 投资咨询业务资格 | | | | 商品指数每日市场跟踪 | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 证监发【2014】217 号 | | 宏观指标 | 2025/7/21 | 2025/7/18 | 涨 跌 | 涨跌幅/% | | | | | 08:00 | 15:00 | | | | | | 道琼斯工业指数 | 44342.19 | 44484.49 | -142.30 | -0.320 | | | | 纳斯达克指数 | 20895.66 | 20885.65 | 10.010 | 0.048 | | 中原期货研究咨询部 | | 标普500 | 6296.79 | 6297.36 | -0.570 | -0.009 | | 0371-58620081 | | 恒生指数 | 24825.66 | 24498.95 | 326.710 | 1.334 | | 0371-58620083 | | SHIBOR隔夜 | 1.46 | 1.46 | -0.001 | -0.06 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating There is no information about the report industry investment rating in the provided content. 2. Core Views of the Report - The macro - economic situation shows mixed trends. Unemployment rates in different age groups in China have different changes, and the US Congress has passed bills related to cryptocurrency regulation. The overall economy shows signs of development, with stable summer grain production and positive changes in the agricultural and rural economy [7][8]. - In the financial market, on July 17, A - share major indices rose collectively, and European and American stock markets also closed higher. The performance of various commodities in the futures market is diverse, with some rising and some falling [12][16][17]. - Different commodity sectors have different market conditions. For example, the agricultural product market is generally in a pattern of weak supply and demand; the energy - chemical market is affected by factors such as supply and demand changes and policy adjustments; the industrial metal market is under pressure from factors such as trade policies and seasonal demand [12][13][15]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Commodity Index Daily Market Tracking - **Stock Indices**: On July 18, the Dow Jones Industrial Index was 44484.49, up 0.519% from the previous day; the Nasdaq Index was 20884.27, up 0.742%; the S&P 500 was 6297.36, up 0.537%; the Hang Seng Index was 24498.95, down 0.077% [2]. - **Macroeconomic Indicators**: SHIBOR overnight was 1.46, down 0.205%; the US dollar index was 98.49, down 0.159%; the US dollar against the RMB (CFETS) remained unchanged [2]. - **Commodity Futures**: In the international market, COMEX gold was 3345.40, down 0.262%; COMEX silver was 38.44, up 0.813%. In the domestic market, gold was 776.74, up 0.059%; silver was 9204.00, up 0.415%, etc. [2]. 3.2 Macro - economic News - **Unemployment Rate**: In June, the unemployment rate of 16 - 24 - year - old labor force in Chinese urban areas (excluding students) was 14.5%, down 0.4 percentage points from the previous month; the 25 - 29 - year - old was 6.7%, down 0.3 percentage points; the 30 - 59 - year - old was 4.0%, up 0.1 percentage point [7]. - **Cryptocurrency Regulation**: The US House of Representatives passed the "Genius Act" and the "Clarity Act" related to cryptocurrency regulation [7]. - **Resident Income**: In the first half of 2025, 11 provinces had per - capita disposable income of residents exceeding 20,000 yuan, with Shanghai ranking first at 46,805 yuan [8]. - **Agricultural Economy**: In the first half of the year, China's summer grain output was 299.48 billion catties, achieving stable production and a good harvest. The autumn grain area is expected to increase steadily [8]. - **Housing and Urban Construction**: The Party group of the Ministry of Housing and Urban - Rural Development emphasized the importance of urban renewal and the construction of a new real - estate development model [8]. - **Consumption Tax Policy**: Starting from July 20, 2025, the threshold for the consumption tax on ultra - luxury cars will be lowered to 900,000 yuan, and new - energy models will be included in the scope of collection [9]. 3.3 Morning Meeting Views on Major Varieties 3.3.1 Agricultural Products - **Peanuts**: The market continues the pattern of weak supply and demand, with slow inventory removal. It is expected to fluctuate strongly in the short term but still maintain a downward trend [12]. - **Oils and Fats**: The market trading is light, and it is expected to fluctuate in the near future [12]. - **Sugar**: The global production increase expectation is strengthened, but the domestic market has a balance of long and short factors. Attention should be paid to the pressure level and risk control [12]. - **Corn**: The supply is under pressure from inventory and auctions, and the demand is weak. A short - selling strategy is recommended [12]. - **Pigs**: The price has been falling slightly, and the supply in the next 2 - 3 months is expected to be relatively abundant, with the futures market in a weak and volatile state [14]. - **Eggs**: The price is rising, with improved supply - demand conditions. There is still room for price increase in the short term [14]. 3.3.2 Energy - Chemical Products - **Caustic Soda**: The fundamentals are weak, and the price has fallen under pressure this week [14]. - **Urea**: The supply is expected to increase after a short - term decline, and the market may fluctuate in the range of 1700 - 1800 yuan/ton [14]. 3.3.3 Industrial Metals - **Copper and Aluminum**: The prices of copper and aluminum are under pressure due to factors such as trade policies and seasonal demand [15]. - **Alumina**: The price is in a consolidation state, and attention should be paid to the impact of macro - market sentiment [15]. - **Rebar and Hot - Rolled Coil**: The overall pressure on inventory accumulation is limited, and the steel price is expected to fluctuate strongly in the short term [15]. - **Ferroalloys**: The medium - and long - term production capacity is in excess, but there is still upward space in the short term due to the warm commodity atmosphere [17]. - **Coking Coal and Coke**: They are strongly supported and are expected to operate strongly [17]. - **Lithium Carbonate**: The supply pressure is increasing, but the demand has marginal improvement. Attention should be paid to the pressure of hedging and key price levels [17]. 3.3.4 Option Finance - **Stock Index**: A - share major indices rose on July 17, and European and American stock markets also closed higher. Investment strategies such as low - buying opportunities and short - term trading are recommended [17][19]. - **Options**: On July 17, A - share major indices rose, and the trading volume and open interest of stock index futures and options had different changes. Trend investors can consider long - 50 and short - 1000 arbitrage, and volatility investors can hold long - straddle positions [20][21].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core View of the Report The report offers a comprehensive analysis of multiple markets, including macro - economic indicators, commodities, and financial indices. It details price movements, trends, and provides trading suggestions for various sectors such as agriculture, energy, industry, and finance [2][4][11]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Commodity Index Daily Market Tracking - **Macro Indicators**: On July 17, 2025, the Dow Jones Industrial Index rose 0.526% to 44254.78, the Nasdaq Index rose 0.255% to 20730.49, and the S&P 500 rose 0.319% to 6263.70. The Hang Seng Index fell 0.294% to 24517.76. SHIBOR overnight dropped 4.495% to 1.47, the US dollar index rose 0.042% to 98.33, and the US dollar against the Chinese yuan (CFETS) remained unchanged [2]. - **External Futures**: COMEX gold rose 0.712% to 3354.20, COMEX silver rose 0.369% to 38.13. LME copper fell 0.212% to 9637.00, LME aluminum fell 0.290% to 2575.50, etc. [2]. - **Domestic Futures**: Gold rose 0.337% to 779.28, silver rose 0.109% to 9162.00, copper fell 0.038% to 77950.00, etc. [2]. - **Chemicals**: Coking coal rose 0.836% to 904.50, coke rose 0.636% to 1504.00, natural rubber rose 0.172% to 14525.00, etc. [4]. - **Agricultural Products**: Yellow soybean No.1 rose 0.239% to 4189.00, yellow soybean No.2 rose 0.909% to 3663.00, soybean meal rose 1.176% to 3012.00, etc. [4]. 3.2 Macro News - The 3rd China International Supply - Chain Promotion Expo opened in Beijing. China will promote the digital, intelligent, and green transformation of the global industrial chain and supply chain [7]. - The State Council Executive Meeting discussed policies for strengthening the domestic cycle, the order of the new - energy vehicle industry, and the rectification of audit problems [7]. - The Ministry of Commerce emphasized high - level opening - up and issued a notice on tax - credit policies for foreign investors' reinvestment [7][8]. - The National Energy Administration reported that the national maximum power load on July 16 reached a record high of 15.06 billion kilowatts [8]. - The Passenger Car Association data showed that from July 1 - 13, the national passenger car market retail sales were 571,000 units, a 7% year - on - year increase, and the new - energy market retail sales were 332,000 units, a 26% year - on - year increase [9]. 3.3 Morning Meeting Views on Major Varieties 3.3.1 Agricultural Products - **Peanuts**: The market is in a weak supply - demand situation, with prices expected to be volatile but still on a downward trend [12]. - **Oils and Fats**: The market is quiet, with stable basis and expected to be volatile [12]. - **Sugar**: The market is a tug - of - war between summer consumption and import pressure. It is recommended to trade in the 5750 - 5850 yuan range [12]. - **Corn**: Supply pressure is high, and demand is weak. It is recommended to short on rebounds above 2300 yuan [12]. - **Pigs**: Supply is abundant, and futures are weak after basis repair [13]. - **Eggs**: Prices are rising, with reduced supply and increased demand. There is room for price increases [13]. 3.3.2 Energy and Chemicals - **Caustic Soda**: The market has limited supply - demand fluctuations, and prices are expected to fluctuate slightly [13]. - **Urea**: Supply is high, and demand has a weakening trend. The futures price is expected to be weakly volatile [13]. 3.3.3 Industrial Metals - **Copper and Aluminum**: Copper prices are under pressure due to inflation and tariff concerns. Aluminum prices are pressured by production capacity, cost, and demand factors [13][15]. - **Alumina**: The price is adjusted, with the upper limit pressured by the May high [15]. - **Rebar and Hot - Rolled Coil**: The inventory accumulation pressure is not large, and prices fluctuate with the macro - sentiment [15]. - **Ferroalloys**: The market rebounds, but the long - term over - capacity situation remains. There is still upward potential [15]. - **Coking Coal and Coke**: Imported Mongolian coal prices are high, and the spot market is temporarily stable [15][16]. - **Lithium Carbonate**: The market has high inventory pressure. It is recommended to short in the 67000 - 67500 yuan range [16]. 3.3.4 Options and Finance - **Stock Index**: The Shanghai Composite Index is consolidating, while the Shenzhen and ChiNext indices are stronger. Attention should be paid to the low - buying opportunities in technology sectors [18]. - **Options**: Different index futures and options have different performance in terms of positions, spreads, and implied volatility. Investment strategies are provided for trend and volatility investors [20][21]. 3.4 Personnel Information The report lists the names, qualification numbers, and investment - consulting license numbers of employees in the agricultural products, industrial products, and financial options sectors [23].

Report Title - The report is titled "Weak Demand Pressure in the Off - season, Steel Prices Rise and Then Fall - Weekly Report 20250707" [1] Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content Core Viewpoints - The macro - economic environment shows enhanced expectations of warming policies, leading to a significant rebound in steel futures and spot prices. However, in the industrial aspect, the overall supply - demand structure continues to weaken during the high - temperature and rainy off - season. Steel prices are expected to face short - term correction pressure as the previous macro - positive sentiment fades [3][9] Summary by Directory 1. Market Review - **Price Changes**: In the previous week, due to the improved macro - atmosphere and enhanced expectations of capacity control, commodity prices generally rebounded. The spot prices of rebar and hot - rolled coil in major cities increased, with rebar in Shanghai rising by 90 yuan/ton to 3170 yuan/ton, and hot - rolled coil in Shanghai rising by 60 yuan/ton to 3250 yuan/ton. Futures prices also showed significant increases, with the RB01 contract rising by 88 yuan/ton to 3093 yuan/ton [9] - **Inventory Changes**: Rebar social inventory slightly increased, and hot - rolled coil total inventory increased for two consecutive weeks. Rebar total inventory decreased by 3.79 tons to 545.21 tons, while hot - rolled coil total inventory increased by 3.77 tons to 344.93 tons [9] 2. Steel Supply and Demand Analysis - **Supply**: National rebar weekly output was 221.08 tons (up 1.49% week - on - week, down 11.01% year - on - year), and hot - rolled coil weekly output was 328.14 tons (up 0.28% week - on - week, up 0.57% year - on - year). Rebar production increased in both blast furnaces and electric furnaces, with blast furnace output at 195.24 tons (up 1.23% week - on - week, down 7.62% year - on - year) and electric furnace output at 25.84 tons (up 3.44% week - on - week, up 1.69% year - on - year). The blast furnace operating rate was 83.46% (down 0.43% week - on - week, up 0.42% year - on - year), and the electric furnace operating rate was 66.87% (down 4.66% week - on - week, down 4.46% year - on - year) [15][17][22] - **Demand**: Rebar apparent consumption was 224.87 tons (up 2.26% week - on - week, down 4.42% year - on - year), and hot - rolled coil apparent consumption was 324.37 tons (down 0.58% week - on - week, up 2.10% year - on - year). The 5 - day average of national building materials transactions was 10.68 tons (up 8.23% week - on - week, down 16.56% year - on - year) [36] - **Inventory**: Rebar slightly reduced inventory, with social inventory increasing and factory inventory decreasing. Rebar factory inventory was 180.47 tons (down 2.76% week - on - week, down 6.81% year - on - year), social inventory was 364.74 tons (up 0.37% week - on - week, down 35.63% year - on - year), and total inventory was 545.21 tons (down 0.69% week - on - week, down 30.69% year - on - year). Hot - rolled coil inventory increased for two consecutive weeks, with both factory and social inventory slightly rising. Hot - rolled coil factory inventory was 78.32 tons (up 0.13% week - on - week, down 13.31% year - on - year), social inventory was 266.61 tons (up 1.40% week - on - week, down 19.58% year - on - year), and total inventory was 344.93 tons (up 1.11% week - on - week, down 18.14% year - on - year) [40][45] - **Downstream Industries**: In the real estate sector, the weekly transaction area of commercial housing in 30 large - and medium - sized cities decreased by 39.03% week - on - week and 2.42% year - on - year, and the transaction area of land in 100 large - and medium - sized cities decreased by 38.28% week - on - week and increased by 8.91% year - on - year. In the automotive sector, in May 2025, China's automobile production and sales reached 2.649 million and 2.686 million vehicles respectively, with month - on - month increases of 1.1% and 3.7%, and year - on - year increases of 11.6% and 11.2% [48][51] 3. Iron Ore Supply and Demand Analysis - **Supply**: The shipments from 19 ports in Australia and Brazil decreased to 2417.8 tons (down 13.25% week - on - week, down 4.15% year - on - year), and the arrival volume at 45 ports was 2483.9 tons (up 5.12% week - on - week, down 10.89% year - on - year). The iron ore price index was 95.44 (up 3.38% week - on - week, down 13.70% year - on - year) [59] - **Demand**: The daily output of hot metal decreased to 240.85 tons (down 1.44 tons week - on - week, up 1.53 tons year - on - year), and the port clearance volume of 45 ports was 319.29 tons (down 2.04% week - on - week, up 1.87% year - on - year). The inventory - to - sales ratio of 247 steel enterprises was 29.65 days (up 0.95% week - on - week, down 5.63% year - on - year) [64] - **Inventory**: The inventory at 45 ports decreased by 0.37% week - on - week to 13878.4 tons, and the imported iron ore inventory of 247 steel enterprises increased by 0.80% week - on - week to 8918.57 tons. The average available days of iron ore for 114 steel enterprises were 22.44 days (up 0.22% week - on - week, up 3.55% year - on - year) [70] 4. Coking Coal and Coke Supply and Demand Analysis - **Supply**: The operating rate of coking coal mines increased to 83.82% (up 1.62% week - on - week, down 6.90% year - on - year), the operating rate of coal - washing plants was 59.72% (up 1.05% week - on - week, down 14.48% year - on - year), and the daily Mongolian coal customs clearance volume increased by 64% week - on - week to 12.56 tons (down 19.13% year - on - year) [76] - **Demand**: The daily coking coal auction成交 rate was 79.17% (down 7% week - on - week, down 19.51% year - on - year), and the weekly成交 rate was 86.7% (up 23.31% week - on - week, down 2.87% year - on - year). The daily output of hot metal decreased to 240.85 tons (down 1.44 tons week - on - week, up 1.53 tons year - on - year) [78] - **Inventory**: The coking coal inventory of independent coking plants increased by 5.57% week - on - week to 716.49 tons, the port inventory of coking coal increased by 6.54% week - on - week to 304.27 tons, and the coking coal inventory of steel mills increased by 1.03% week - on - week to 789.43 tons. The coke inventory of independent coking plants decreased by 16.45% week - on - week to 61.6 tons, the coke port inventory decreased by 4.48% week - on - week to 191.12 tons, and the coke inventory of steel mills increased by 1.55% week - on - week to 637.49 tons [91][97] - **Spot Price**: After four rounds of price cuts, coke prices temporarily stabilized. The price of low - sulfur main coking coal in Shanxi was 1180 yuan/ton (up 10 yuan/ton week - on - week, down 730 yuan/ton year - on - year), and the ex - factory price of quasi - first - grade metallurgical coke in Lvliang was 980 yuan/ton (unchanged week - on - week, down 820 yuan/ton year - on - year) [103] 5. Spread Analysis - **Rebar and Hot - Rolled Coil**: The basis of hot - rolled coil significantly contracted, and the spreads between the 10 - 1 contracts of rebar and hot - rolled coil both contracted [105] - **Others**: The 9 - 1 spread of iron ore contracted, and the spread between hot - rolled coil and rebar fluctuated within a narrow range [111]