1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content 2. Core View of the Report - In the next 1 - 2 weeks, the lithium carbonate market will experience intensified high - level fluctuations under the divergence between sentiment and fundamentals, and its upward space may be limited by industrial hedging pressure and inventory verification. The core contradiction lies in the game between short - term bullish factors on the supply side (mine policy disturbances and seasonal production reduction expectations of salt lakes) and long - term pressure on the demand side (slowing growth of power batteries). Although news stimuli have pushed prices up rapidly, factors such as high - level futures premium, deteriorating production profits, and inventory accumulation in some sectors may restrict the continuous upward movement of prices [2] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Lithium Salt Market Conditions - **Carbonate Lithium Futures and Spot**: The weekly price of the lithium carbonate futures main contract rose 14.0% to 111,400 yuan/ton, with a maximum intraday of 113,500 yuan/ton. The spot price of battery - grade lithium carbonate increased 7.57% to 103,000 yuan/ton, and industrial - grade lithium carbonate rose 7.63% to 101,550 yuan/ton. The futures premium structure was significant, and the basis widened 326.4% to - 8,400 yuan/ton [2][5] - **Lithium Hydroxide Spot**: The spot prices of different types of lithium hydroxide all increased. The price of lithium hydroxide (electric carbon - coarse particles) rose 5.33% to 88,900 yuan/ton, (electric carbon - fine powder) increased 5.02% to 94,100 yuan/ton, and (industrial carbon) went up 5.69% to 83,600 yuan/ton [5] 3.2 Lithium Salt Fundamentals Supply - **Production Capacity Utilization**: The domestic lithium carbonate production capacity utilization rate remained at a high level of 83.52%, while the lithium hydroxide production capacity utilization rate decreased 2.44% to 40.0% [2] - **Transportation Cost**: The freight of some African lithium ore routes decreased. For example, the container freight from Nigeria dropped 16.67% [2][28] Demand - Demand showed structural differentiation. Energy storage cell production remained high, supporting demand, but the expected growth rate of power battery demand slowed down, and new energy vehicle sales declined month - on - month [2] Inventory - The total exchange warehouse receipts of lithium carbonate increased 3.06% to 15,511 lots. The warehouse receipts of some delivery warehouses, such as Jiangsu Benniu Port, increased 80.0%. The lithium ore inventory of port traders increased 24.76% to 131,000 tons [2][41] Cost and Profit - The production cost of externally purchased lithium concentrate increased 4.79% to 110,000 yuan/ton, and the cost of externally purchased lithium mica rose 4.31% to 113,714 yuan/ton. The production profit deteriorated, and the loss of externally purchased concentrate increased 24.08% to - 6,999.9 yuan/ton [2] 3.3 Lithium - Battery Fundamentals - **Positive Electrode Materials**: The report includes sections on the market conditions, production, and consumption of positive electrode materials, but specific data is not detailed in the content - **Electrolyte**: The report mentions electrolyte price and production, but specific data is not provided - **Lithium - Battery Recycling**: The report has a section on lithium - battery recycling, but specific content is not detailed - **New Energy Vehicles**: The report includes new energy vehicle production, sales, and other important data, but specific details are not provided

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints of the Report - On December 25, the offshore RMB against the US dollar rose above the integer mark of "7" during intraday trading, and the on - shore RMB against the US dollar approached the "7" mark. The RMB exchange rate is expected to continue to appreciate next year, but there will be no unilateral trend [7]. - After the collective frenzy of LOFs, the capital speculation subsided. On December 25, multiple LOFs either hit the daily limit down or fell sharply, and many fund companies announced the upgrade of LOF purchase restrictions [7]. - JD's 92% of employees will receive full or excess year - end bonuses, with the total investment in year - end bonuses increasing by more than 70% year - on - year. There have also been rumors of salary increases at companies like BYD, ByteDance, and CATL [8]. - The central bank over - renewed MLF and conducted outright reverse repurchases in December, releasing 300 billion yuan of medium - and long - term liquidity. There is a possibility that the central bank may increase its purchase of treasury bonds to hedge against seasonal fluctuations in liquidity at the end of the month [8]. - The Ministry of Commerce firmly opposes the US imposing 301 tariffs on Chinese semiconductor products and has made solemn representations to the US. China actively promotes and facilitates compliant trade regarding rare - earth magnet export restrictions [9]. - The A - share market showed a rebound pattern, with the Shanghai Composite Index achieving seven consecutive positive daily K - lines. The three major indices have all broken through their previous highs, but as the Shanghai Composite Index approaches the annual high, the pressure will increase [17][18]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 1. Commodity Price Changes - **Chemical Industry**: On December 26, among chemical products, 20 - number rubber, (PTA), asphalt, crude oil, and fuel oil prices rose, while others such as coking coal, coke, and natural rubber fell [4]. - **Agricultural Products**: On December 26, most agricultural product prices rose, including yellow soybean No. 1, yellow soybean No. 2, and cotton No. 1 [4]. 2. Main Variety Morning Meeting Views Agricultural Products - **Sugar**: On December 25, the sugar price fluctuated within a narrow range. There are both supply pressure and cost support. It is expected to continue to fluctuate slightly stronger in the short term, but the upside is limited [11]. - **Corn**: On December 25, the corn price continued to fluctuate weakly. The market is in a stage of releasing supply pressure, and the futures price is expected to maintain a weak bottom - side oscillation [11]. - **Peanuts**: On December 25, the peanut futures price fluctuated slightly downward. The current supply of oil - type peanuts is loose, and the price may maintain a weak oscillation in the short term [11]. - **Pigs**: The national average price of live pigs increased slightly. The futures price showed signs of stabilizing, maintaining a bottom - side oscillation pattern with weak rebound opportunities [11][12]. - **Eggs**: The national egg spot price was stable with a slight upward trend. The futures price showed a strong performance, and the month - to - month spread reverse arbitrage should be held [12]. - **Cotton**: On December 25, the cotton price continued to oscillate strongly. The market's bullish factors are dominant, and it is recommended to consider going long at dips near the short - term moving average [12]. Energy and Chemicals - **Caustic Soda**: The caustic soda market maintains an oversupply pattern, and short - term attention should be paid to the impact of market sentiment changes [12]. - **Coking Coal**: The coking coal market is expected to oscillate weakly in the short term [12]. - **Logs**: The log market shows a pattern of increasing supply and demand. It is recommended to pay attention to the performance at the pressure level, and if it cannot break through, consider range trading [13]. - **Pulp**: The pulp market has supply pressure and weak demand. It is expected to maintain range oscillation [13]. - **Offset Printing Paper**: The price of offset printing paper has strongly broken through the key pressure level, and the short - term strength may continue [13]. Non - ferrous Metals - **Copper and Aluminum**: The copper and aluminum markets continue to operate at high levels, and attention should be paid to macro risks [13]. - **Alumina**: The alumina market maintains an oversupply pattern and may continue to operate weakly in the medium term [16]. Steel and Iron Alloys - **Rebar and Hot - Rolled Coil**: The black - series market continues to oscillate and adjust, and the price is expected to maintain a weak oscillation in the short term [16]. - **Ferroalloys**: The ferroalloy market showed a strong short - term trend, but high - level chasing is not recommended [16]. Others - **Lithium Carbonate**: The lithium carbonate price is at a high level, and the market volatility risk has increased. It is recommended to operate with caution [16][17]. 3. Option and Financial Market - **Stock Index Options**: On December 24, the three major A - share indices rose slightly. The trading volume PCR of some options decreased, and the weighted implied volatility decreased. Trend investors can focus on the strength - weakness arbitrage opportunities between varieties, and volatility investors can sell the wide - straddle strategy to short volatility [17]. - **Stock Index**: The Shanghai Composite Index has achieved seven consecutive positive daily K - lines, and the rebound pattern continues. As it approaches the annual high, the pressure will increase. It is recommended to focus on the policy main line to find investment opportunities [17][18].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided in the content. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The market may have entered a small year - end rally. Overseas liquidity has improved with the Bank of Japan's dovish rate hike and the Fed's dovish stance. A - share liquidity has also been enhanced by large - scale ETF subscriptions and the trend of RMB appreciation. The operation strategy is to focus on the policy mainline, use dips for layout, take profits during rallies, and keep a flexible position [18]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Chemical and Agricultural Product Price Changes - **Chemical Products**: On December 23, 2025, among chemical products, PVC had the largest increase with a rise of 2.679% to 4,714.00 yuan, while yellow soybean 2 had the largest decrease in the agricultural products sector, dropping 7.489% to 3,434.00 yuan [4]. 3.2 Macro - economic News - The central bank introduced a one - time credit repair policy for small - amount personal overdue information. Vanke's 20 - billion - yuan bond extension plan was rejected again, but it won a 30 - trading - day grace period. Precious metals soared on December 22, with gold breaking through $4,440 per ounce and silver exceeding $69 per ounce [6]. - The State Council held a meeting on the preparation of the "15th Five - Year Plan". China's December LPR remained unchanged for the 7th consecutive month. The National People's Congress heard a report on the rectification of audit problems in the 2024 central budget [7]. - The Central Economic Work Conference deployed multiple key reform tasks. The draft of the Childcare Service Law was submitted for its first review [8]. 3.3 Morning Meeting Views on Main Varieties 3.3.1 Agricultural Products - **Sugar**: On December 22, the sugar price rose 0.75%. In the short term, it may show a volatile and slightly stronger pattern, with support near the cost line. One can consider going long on dips [11]. - **Corn**: The corn futures price was flat on December 22. It has entered a volatile pattern, and short - term interval trading can be considered [11]. - **Pigs**: The current hog futures market shows a contradiction between weak reality and strong expectations. There is a weak rebound opportunity, and one can focus on the reverse spread of monthly spreads [11]. - **Eggs**: The egg market is still bearish, and the reverse spread of monthly spreads can be held [11]. - **Cotton**: On December 22, the cotton price rose 0.39%. In the short term, positive factors dominate, and one can go long on dips with support at 14,000 yuan [13]. 3.3.2 Energy and Chemicals - **Urea**: The domestic urea market price is stable. The supply - demand pattern shows a double - reduction, and the UR2605 contract may run in the range of 1,650 - 1,750 yuan [12]. - **Caustic Soda**: The caustic soda market is in an oversupply situation, and the main contract continues to be weak [14]. - **Coking Coal and Coke**: The coking coal supply is relatively loose, and the coking coal and coke market tends to be volatile [13]. - **Logs**: The log market shows a pattern of weak supply and demand, and the price oscillates between 760 - 800 yuan [14]. - **Pulp**: The pulp price has broken through the previous range, but the supply exceeds demand. One should not chase the high price and can pay attention to the support near 5,550 - 5,580 yuan [14]. - **Offset Printing Paper**: The offset printing paper price has broken through the previous pressure level. One should not chase the high and can pay attention to the support at 4,000 yuan [14]. 3.3.3 Non - ferrous Metals - **Copper and Aluminum**: The copper and aluminum market is strong, and they continue to run at high levels, but macro risks should be noted [14]. - **Alumina**: The alumina market is in an oversupply situation and continues to be weak [15]. - **Rebar and Hot - Rolled Coil**: The rebar and hot - rolled coil market maintains an interval oscillation pattern, with rebar in the range of 3,000 - 3,200 yuan and hot - rolled coil in the range of 3,200 - 3,300 yuan [15]. - **Ferroalloys**: The ferroalloy market follows the trend of the black series. One should not chase the high price at the current high level [15]. - **Lithium Carbonate**: The lithium carbonate futures price has broken through the previous range. The short - term upward trend is strong, but the risk of high - level fluctuations increases [15]. 3.3.4 Options and Finance - **Stock Index Futures and Options**: On December 22, the A - share market was strong. Trend investors can focus on the strength - weakness arbitrage opportunities among varieties, and volatility investors can short volatility through the short straddle strategy [16]. - **Stock Index**: The A - share market has shown signs of stabilization. The market may have entered a small year - end rally. One should focus on the policy mainline and keep a flexible position [18].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Views of the Report - This week, the global market enters the "Christmas mode", with stock markets in the US, Europe, and Hong Kong closed on Christmas Day. Key economic data from China, the US, and the UK will be released, and the selection of the Fed Chairman is highly anticipated. Gold and crude oil trends are in focus. Huawei and Leapmotor will hold product and anniversary press conferences respectively [7]. - The "zero - tariff" imported car policy in the Hainan Free Trade Port has been officially implemented, but it only applies to enterprises engaged in transportation and tourism in Hainan [7]. - The first L3 - level autonomous driving license in China was issued in Chongqing, marking that China may become the first country to scale - release L3 - level autonomous driving [7]. - The Central Economic Work Conference emphasizes innovation - driven development and the construction of a unified national market. The National Market Regulatory Administration has issued a compliance guide for the automotive industry's price behavior [8]. - As of the end of the first half of the year, the total trust asset scale of the Chinese trust industry exceeded 30 trillion yuan, ranking third in the asset management market [8]. - Bohai Oilfield's cumulative oil and gas equivalent production in 2025 exceeded 40 million tons, setting a new record [9]. - Fed's Harker tends to keep interest rates stable before spring and opposes recent rate cuts due to inflation concerns [9]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Chemicals | Commodity | Price on 2025/12/22 (8:00) | Price on 2025/12/21 (15:00) | Change | Change Rate | |---|---|---|---|---| | Coking Coal | 1,104.00 | 1,108.00 | -4.0 | -0.361% | | Coke | 1,735.50 | 1,597.50 | 138.0 | 8.638% | | Natural Rubber | 15,170.00 | 15,190.00 | -20.0 | -0.132% | | 20 - grade Rubber | 12,330.00 | 12,360.00 | -30.0 | -0.243% | | Plastic | 6,320.00 | 6,320.00 | 0 | 0% | | Polypropylene PP | 6,208.00 | 6,213.00 | -5.0 | -0.080% | | PTA | 4,980.00 | 4,882.00 | 98.0 | 2.007% | | PVC | 4,594.00 | 4,652.00 | -58.0 | -1.247% | | Asphalt | 2,940.00 | 2,909.00 | 31.0 | 1.066% | | Methanol | 2,167.00 | 2,148.00 | 19.0 | 0.885% | | Ethylene Glycol | 3,746.00 | 3,738.00 | 8.0 | 0.214% | | Styrene | 6,443.00 | 6,402.00 | 41.0 | 0.640% | | Glass | 1,039.00 | 1,041.00 | -2.0 | -0.192% | | Crude Oil | 431.90 | 426.60 | 5.30 | 1.242% | | Fuel Oil | 2,415.00 | 2,390.00 | 25.0 | 1.046% | | Soda Ash | 1,174.00 | 1,176.00 | -2.0 | -0.170% | | Pulp | 5,610.00 | 5,506.00 | 104.0 | 1.889% | | LPG | 4,092.00 | 4,099.00 | -7.0 | -0.171% | | Caustic Soda | 2,164.00 | 2,164.00 | 0 | 0% | | ЬХ | 7,222.00 | 7,070.00 | 152.0 | 2.150% | [4] 3.2 Agricultural Products | Commodity | Price on 2025/12/22 (8:00) | Price on 2025/12/21 (15:00) | Change | Change Rate | |---|---|---|---|---| | Yellow Soybean No.1 | 4,090.00 | 4,052.00 | 38.0 | 0.938% | | Yellow Soybean No.2 | 3,674.00 | 3,676.00 | -2.0 | -0.054% | | Bean Meal | 2,738.00 | 2,735.00 | 3.0 | 0.110% | | Rapeseed Meal | 2,322.00 | 2,323.00 | -1.0 | -0.043% | | Egg | 7,718.00 | 7,712.00 | 6.0 | 0.078% | | Rapeseed Oil | 8,717.00 | 8,744.00 | -27.0 | -0.309% | | Palm Oil | 8,276.00 | 8,292.00 | -16.0 | -0.193% | | White Sugar | 5,109.00 | 5,088.00 | 21.0 | 0.413% | | Yellow Corn | 2,200.00 | 2,192.00 | 8.0 | 0.365% | | Corn Starch | 2,502.00 | 2,502.00 | 0 | 0% | | Cotton No.1 | 14,050.00 | 14,015.00 | 35.0 | 0.250% | | Cotton Yarn | 20,150.00 | 20,050.00 | 100.0 | 0.499% | [4] 3.3 Morning Meeting Views on Major Varieties 3.3.1 Agricultural Products - **Sugar**: On December 19, the sugar futures closed at 5088 yuan/ton, showing a weak trend. Supply pressure is the core driver. It is recommended to maintain a bearish view, paying attention to the price around the cost line. Resistance is at 5100 - 5110 yuan/ton [11]. - **Corn**: On December 19, the corn futures closed at 2192 yuan/ton, with prices oscillating at the bottom. Supply pressure is emerging, while demand is divided. It is advisable to wait and see, focusing on the support at 2180 yuan/ton and the resistance at 2200 yuan/ton [11]. - **Pigs**: The national average price of live pigs increased slightly. The futures market is in a weak - reality and improving - expectation situation. There are weak rebound opportunities, and it is advisable to use the calendar - spread reverse arbitrage strategy [12]. - **Eggs**: The spot price in Hebei was stable with a slight decline. The market is bearish, and it is recommended to hold the calendar - spread reverse arbitrage [12]. - **Cotton**: On December 19, the cotton futures closed at 14015 yuan/ton, showing a strong - oscillating trend. Supply pressure is short - term, and demand is expected to improve. It is recommended to build long positions at dips near the new support level of 13900 - 13950 yuan/ton [13]. 3.3.2 Energy and Chemicals - **Urea**: The spot market price is stable. Supply has decreased due to environmental protection, and demand support from compound fertilizer enterprises has weakened. The UR2605 contract is expected to operate in the range of 1650 - 1750 yuan/ton [13]. - **Caustic Soda**: The short - term supply - demand pattern is stable, and the price is in a weak - stable adjustment. There is a short - term short - covering rebound [13]. - **Coking Coal**: The production capacity utilization rate has increased, and supply is relatively loose. Steel mills' maintenance has weakened the replenishment demand for coking coal and coke, which are expected to be in a weak - oscillating state [13]. - **Log**: The futures price is in a weak state. Supply is decreasing, but demand is weak. It is recommended to wait and see or try short positions at high prices [14]. - **Pulp**: The market presents a situation of strong expectations and weak reality. The price is high, and there is a risk of a high - level correction. It is necessary to be cautious when chasing long positions [14]. - **Double - offset Paper**: The price is in a weak - oscillating state. Supply is excessive, and demand is weak. It is recommended to consider short positions at high prices near 3980 yuan/ton [14]. 3.3.3 Non - ferrous Metals - **Copper and Aluminum**: The market sentiment has cooled, and prices are adjusting at high levels. Pay attention to macro risks [15]. - **Alumina**: The supply - demand pattern is in surplus, and there is a short - term short - covering rebound [15]. - **Rebar and Hot - rolled Coil**: The fundamental pressure is not significant, and prices are expected to oscillate in the range of 3000 - 3200 yuan/ton for rebar and 3200 - 3350 yuan/ton for hot - rolled coil [15]. - **Ferroalloys**: The supply - demand drive for ferroalloys at the end of the year is weak. Prices follow the trend of the black - series market, and it is not advisable to chase high prices [15]. - **Lithium Carbonate**: The futures price has broken through the 110,000 - yuan mark. Supply may increase, but demand from the energy - storage sector is strong. It is recommended to be cautiously bullish [15]. 3.3.4 Options and Finance - **Stock Index Options**: On December 19, the three major A - share indices rose. Trend investors can focus on the strength - weakness arbitrage opportunities among varieties, and volatility investors can sell straddles to short volatility [20]. - **Stock Index**: On December 19, the three major indices closed higher. It is expected that the index will oscillate in a range at the end of the year. It is advisable to buy on dips and take profits on rallies, keeping a flexible position [22][23].

中原期货研究咨询部 晨会纪要 2025 第（229）期 发布日期：2025-12-17 | 中原期货研究咨询部 | 0371-58620081 | | --- | --- | | 0371-58620083 | | | 公司官方微信 | | 公司官方微信 1 中原期货研究咨询部 | 化工 | 主力合约 | 2025/12/17 | 2025/12/16 | 涨跌 | 涨跌幅/% | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | | 8:00 | 15:00 | | | | | 焦煤 | 1,061.00 | 1,067.50 | -6.50 | -0.609 | | | 焦炭 | 1,517.00 | 1,514.50 | 2.50 | 0.165 | | | 天然橡胶 | 15,105.00 | 15,170.00 | -65.0 | -0.428 | | | 20号胶 | 12,370.00 | 12,385.00 | -15.0 | -0.121 | | | 塑料 | 6,530.00 | 6,543.00 | -13.0 | -0.199 | | | 聚丙烯PP ...

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content Core Viewpoints of the Report - The steel market is currently in a weak and volatile state due to suppressed demand during the off - season. The prices of steel products, raw materials, and related futures contracts have generally declined. However, the fundamentals of finished steel are not under significant pressure, and the downward space for prices is limited. For different varieties: - **Rebar and Hot - Rolled Coil**: They show production cuts and inventory reduction. The demand for rebar has declined significantly, while the demand for hot - rolled coil shows certain resilience. Rebar should continue to focus on the support around 3000 yuan/ton, and hot - rolled coil should focus on whether it can stabilize around 3200 yuan/ton [3]. - **Iron Ore**: The supply has increased, the demand has continued to decline, and port inventory has reached a new high. The price is under overall pressure, and the support below is temporarily around 730 - 750 yuan/ton [4]. - **Coking Coal and Coke**: The overall supply has increased slightly, and the downstream transactions have improved. The coking plant and port coking coal inventories have accumulated, suppressing prices. After the second round of coke price cuts, there is still an expectation of further cuts, but the downward space for the disk price is limited. Coking coal should focus on the support around 1000 yuan/ton [5]. Summary of Each Section According to the Table of Contents 01 Market Review - **Price Changes**: Raw material price drops have dragged down steel prices. Spot and futures prices of rebar and hot - rolled coil have generally declined, and the prices of imported iron ore and coke have also decreased. The basis of rebar has slightly increased [9]. - **Inventory Changes**: The five major steel products have continued to reduce inventory, with significant reduction in rebar social inventory and a slight decrease in factory inventory. The reduction in hot - rolled coil inventory has accelerated [9]. 02 Steel Supply and Demand Analysis - **Supply**: Rebar production has decreased significantly, with both blast furnace and electric furnace production cuts. The national hot - rolled coil production has also decreased, and the blast furnace operating rate has decreased month - on - month, while the electric furnace operating rate has remained stable. The profits of rebar and hot - rolled coil have decreased month - on - month [12][17][22]. - **Demand**: The demand for rebar and hot - rolled coil has both declined slightly, with a more obvious decline in rebar demand [31]. - **Inventory**: Rebar has continued to reduce inventory, with factory and social inventories both falling. Hot - rolled coil has slightly reduced inventory, with factory inventory increasing and social inventory decreasing [36][40]. - **Downstream Market**: In the real estate market, the transaction volume of commercial housing and the land market have both increased month - on - month. In the automotive market, the production and sales in November have continued to grow both month - on - month and year - on - year [45][48]. 03 Iron Ore Supply and Demand Analysis - **Supply**: The arrival volume of iron ore at ports has increased significantly month - on - month, while the shipments from Australia and Brazil have decreased slightly [53]. - **Demand**: The daily production of hot metal has continued to decline, and the port ore handling volume has remained stable [59]. - **Inventory**: The iron ore port inventory has reached a new high, while the steel enterprise iron ore inventory has decreased [64]. 04 Coking Coal and Coke Supply and Demand Analysis - **Supply**: The operating rate of domestic coking mines has decreased slightly month - on - month, and the Mongolian coal customs clearance has remained at a relatively high level [71]. - **Demand**: The coking coal auction transaction rate has increased, but the daily production of hot metal has continued to decline, and the steel mill replenishment power is limited [76]. - **Inventory**: The port coking coal inventory has continued to increase, and the coking plant inventory has rebounded. The coke port inventory has continued to decline, and the coking plant inventory has rebounded [84][90]. - **Spot Price**: The second round of coke price cuts has been implemented, and the game between steel and coke enterprises continues [96]. 05 Spread Analysis - The basis of rebar and hot - rolled coil has both widened, and the 1 - 5 spreads of rebar and hot - rolled coil have both slightly widened. The coil - to - rebar spread has fluctuated narrowly, and the 1 - 5 spread of coking coal has slightly widened [102][106].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content 2. Core View of the Report - In the next 1 - 2 weeks, lithium carbonate prices will fluctuate widely at high levels. The pressure at the 100,000 - yuan integer mark is significant, and the support below is in the range of 95,000 - 97,000 yuan/ton. The market is in a high - level shock stage after a strong breakthrough. The core contradiction lies in the game between the supply side (with both increased capacity utilization and expected seasonal reduction in salt - lake lithium extraction) and the demand side (supported by strong demand for energy - storage cells but with marginal slowdown in cathode material production), as well as the cost support due to the deep - loss state of the entire industry [2] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Lithium Salt Market Introduction - **Price Changes**: Battery - grade lithium carbonate spot prices rose 5.1% to 95,750 yuan/ton, and industrial - grade rose 5.24% to 94,350 yuan/ton. The main futures contract rose 6.03% to 97,720 yuan/ton, with a weekly amplitude of 11.5%. The spot prices of different types of lithium hydroxide also increased, with the increase rates ranging from 3.11% to 3.53% [2][5] - **Basis Structure**: The basis maintained a contango structure, widening 85.85% week - on - week to - 1,970 yuan/ton, indicating that the futures price increase led the spot price [2] - **Futures Position**: The futures position increased 13.5% week - on - week to 636,000 lots, showing intensified divergence between long and short positions and fierce capital games [2] Lithium Salt Fundamentals - **Supply - China's Lithium Carbonate Production**: The domestic lithium carbonate capacity utilization rate increased 10.86% to 83.52% week - on - week, and the total output in December is expected to increase 3% month - on - month. However, the expected seasonal production reduction in salt - lake lithium extraction and the 4.65% decline in lithium hydroxide capacity utilization offset each other [2] - **Supply - Output from Different Raw Material Sources**: Not provided in the content - **Import and Export - Lithium Ore Transportation Cost**: For South Africa, the freight for bulk transportation remained unchanged at 26.00, and the freight for container transportation decreased 12.50% to 28.00. For Zimbabwe, the freight for both bulk and container transportation remained unchanged. For Nigeria, the freight for bulk transportation was unchanged, and the container freight increased 5.88% to 18.00 [28] - **Import and Export - Lithium Carbonate**: Not provided in the content - **Import and Export - Seasonal Changes**: Not provided in the content - **Import and Export - Lithium Hydroxide**: Not provided in the content - **Inventory - Lithium Carbonate Social Inventory**: Not provided in the content - **Inventory - Lithium Carbonate Warehouse Receipts**: The exchange warehouse receipts increased 37.8% week - on - week to 15,050 lots. The upstream lithium ore warehouse available inventory doubled to 10,000 tons week - on - week, showing obvious signs of inventory accumulation at the raw material end [2][41] - **Cost and Profit - Lithium Carbonate**: The production cost of externally purchased lithium concentrate increased 7.64% to 104,970 yuan/ton, higher than the spot price. The production profit of the externally purchased concentrate route was - 9,219.6 yuan/ton, and although the loss narrowed 43.59% week - on - week, the entire industry was still in a deep - loss state [2] Lithium Battery Fundamentals - **Market - Cathode Materials**: Not provided in the content - **Supply - Cathode Material Production**: The weekly production of ternary and lithium - iron materials decreased month - on - month, showing marginal signs of slowdown [2] - **Supply - Electrolyte Price and Production**: Not provided in the content - **Demand - Cathode Material Consumption**: Not provided in the content - **Import and Export - Lithium Battery Materials**: Not provided in the content - **Import and Export - Batteries**: Not provided in the content - **Cost and Profit - Ternary Materials**: Not provided in the content - **Lithium Battery Recycling**: Not provided in the content - **New Energy Vehicles - Production and Sales**: Not provided in the content

软之间的矛盾。广西新糖上市及仓单预报激增加剧现货压力，而进口利润丰厚使 得外部供应源源不断，共同压制价格反弹空间，预计短期价格将在5200-5250元/ 吨区间内弱势震荡。 进一步强化市场 白糖市场供应压力主导，内外盘联动震荡筑 底 --白糖周报2025年12月08日-12月12日 作 者：杨江涛 执业证书编号：F03117249 交易咨询编号：Z0022644 联 系 方 式：0371-58620082 本周观点 | 品种 | 逻辑驱动 | 策略及风险提示 | | --- | --- | --- | | | 【现货市场】：现货价格稳中趋弱，柳州现货价周环比下跌0.37%至5330元/吨， | | | | 市场情绪偏悲观，看跌比例达55%。基差大幅收窄，柳州基差环比下降78.72%至10 | 预计未来1-2周， | | | 元/吨，显示期货价格相对抗跌。 | 白糖主力合约将 | | | 【期货市场】：主力合约周内震荡走弱，收盘价由5337元/吨跌至5214元/吨，周 | 在供应压力下， | | | 度下跌2.31%。持仓量先减后增，周初持仓大幅减少，12月11日单日增仓149966手， | 于5200-525 ...

中原期货研究咨询部 晨会纪要 2025 第（228）期 发布日期：2025-12-16 | 中原期货研究咨询部 | 0371-58620081 | | --- | --- | | 0371-58620083 | | | 公司官方微信 | | 0371-58620083 公司官方微信 1 中原期货研究咨询部 | 化工 | 主力合约 | 2025/12/16 | 2025/12/15 | 涨跌 | 涨跌幅/% | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | | 8:00 | 15:00 | | | | | 焦煤 | 1,057.00 | 1,061.00 | -4.0 | -0.377 | | | 焦炭 | 1,497.00 | 1,503.50 | -6.50 | -0.432 | | | 天然橡胶 | 15,230.00 | 15,200.00 | 30.0 | 0.197 | | | 20号胶 | 12,435.00 | 12,360.00 | 75.0 | 0.607 | | | 塑料 | 6,545.00 | 6,557.00 | -12.0 | -0.183 | ...

晨会纪要 中原期货研究咨询部 2025 第（227）期 发布日期：2025-12-15 | 中原期货研究咨询部 | | --- | | 0371-58620083 | | 0371-58620081 公司官方微信 | 公司官方微信 1 中原期货研究咨询部 | 化工 | 主力合约 | 2025/12/15 | 2025/12/14 | 涨跌 | 涨跌幅/% | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | | 8:00 | 15:00 | | | | | 焦煤 | 1,062.50 | 1,016.50 | 46.0 | 4.525 | | | 焦炭 | 1,508.50 | 1,475.00 | 33.50 | 2.271 | | | 天然橡胶 | 15,265.00 | 15,230.00 | 35.0 | 0.230 | | | 20号胶 | 12,440.00 | 12,330.00 | 110.0 | 0.892 | | | 塑料 | 6,602.00 | 6,486.00 | 116.0 | 1.788 | | | 聚丙烯PP | 6,294.00 | 6,12 ...