Report Information - Report Title: "Domestic and Overseas Macroeconomic Preferences, Copper and Aluminum Prices Remain High - Copper and Aluminum Weekly Report 2025.07.28" [1] - Author: Liu Peiyang [2] - Contact Information: Phone 0371 - 58620083, Email liupy_qh@ccnew.com, Professional Certificate No. F0290318, Trading Consultation No. Z0011155 [2] Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content Core Views Copper - **Main Logic**: Domestically, policy signals are being released, improving market sentiment; the US has reached trade agreements with Japan and the EU, also boosting market sentiment. Although the supply in Shanghai has increased recently, the overall supply remains tight. The downstream consumption willingness is low due to high copper prices. The impact of tariffs on copper prices has been gradually digested, and prices are expected to remain bullish after stabilizing [4]. - **Strategy Suggestion**: For the Shanghai Copper 2509 contract, the upper reference pressure level is 81,000 yuan/ton, and the lower reference support level is 77,000 yuan/ton [4]. Electrolytic Aluminum - **Main Logic**: Domestically, policy signals are being released, improving market sentiment; the US has reached trade agreements with Japan and the EU, also boosting market sentiment. Under the pressure of increased supply and the off - season of consumption, the inventory is expected to accumulate. However, the improvement of domestic macro - expectations will support aluminum prices, which are expected to remain high and fluctuate [6]. - **Strategy Suggestion**: For the Shanghai Aluminum 2509 contract, the upper reference pressure level is 21,000 yuan/ton, and the lower reference support level is 20,200 yuan/ton [6]. Alumina - **Main Logic**: Domestically, policy signals are being released, improving market sentiment; the US has reached trade agreements with Japan and the EU, also boosting market sentiment. As of July 24, the national alumina weekly operating rate increased by 0.45 percentage points to 81.19%. The current spot - futures arbitrage window is open, and the warehouse receipt inventory is expected to increase. With the bullish domestic macro - expectations and low warehouse receipts, the alumina futures price is expected to be strong [8]. - **Strategy Suggestion**: For the Alumina 2509 contract, the upper reference pressure level is 3,600 yuan/ton, and the lower reference support level is 3,000 yuan/ton. A bullish approach is recommended [8]. Summary by Directory 01. Market Review Weekly Market Review - The cumulative weekly price changes from July 21 to July 25 were calculated for various metals including Shanghai Copper, International Copper, LME Copper, etc. [16] Weekly News Review - On July 21, the IAI reported that global primary aluminum production in June was 6.045 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 0.9% [17]. - From this year to next year, 13.6 million tons of alumina projects in Guangxi are waiting to be put into production, while there is no new alumina capacity in Shanxi and Henan, and some factories may face elimination [17]. - On July 24, the EU started monitoring the import and export of scrap metals such as steel, aluminum, and copper due to supply shortages and smelter shutdown risks [17]. - On July 24, Japanese copper smelters were in difficult mid - year negotiations on processing and refining fees (TC/RCs) [17] 02. Macroeconomic Analysis Domestic Market - On July 21, the 1 - year and 5 - year LPR remained unchanged, in line with market expectations [21]. Overseas Market - On July 22, the US reached a trade agreement with Japan, with a 15% tariff rate and a $550 billion Japanese investment in the US [22]. - On July 27, the US reached a 15% tariff agreement with the EU, with the EU increasing investment in the US by $600 billion, buying US military equipment and $750 billion worth of US energy products [22] 03. Copper Market Analysis Spot Market - The processing fee TC remained weak [26] Futures Market - The net long position in COMEX copper declined [29] Overseas Market - The US dollar index declined [33] Inventory - Exchange inventories of copper in SHFE, LME, and COMEX, as well as Shanghai bonded area inventories, were presented [35]. - As of July 24, the SMM national mainstream copper inventory decreased by 0.44 million tons to 11.42 million tons. The operating rate of domestic refined copper rod enterprises decreased, and the inventory accumulated. The future operating rate is expected to continue to decline [41] 04. Electrolytic Aluminum Market Analysis Domestic Market - The spot premium of aluminum narrowed [44] Overseas Market - The US dollar index weakened [48] Inventory - Weekly inventories of SHFE aluminum, aluminum rod social inventory, electrolytic aluminum social inventory, and LME aluminum total inventory were shown [50] Downstream Operating Rate - As of July 24, the overall operating rate of domestic aluminum downstream processing industries decreased by 0.1 percentage points to 58.7%. Different sectors had different performances, and the weekly operating rate is expected to decline by 0.1 percentage points to 58.6% [52] Recycled Aluminum Alloy - As of July 24, the SMM ADC12 price was 20,100 yuan/ton, a weekly increase of 100 yuan/ton. The cost increased, but the demand was weak, and the price is expected to fluctuate narrowly [56] Cost and Profit - The cost and profit of electrolytic aluminum were analyzed, and the profit was presented in a graph [60] 05. Alumina Market Analysis Spot Market - The spot price of alumina remained stable [63] Futures Market - The inventory of alumina futures was at a low level [66] Supply and Demand - Supply: The supply of alumina decreased slightly due to the short - term maintenance of two roasting furnaces in a southwestern plant. As of July 24, the built - in capacity was 114.8 million tons, and the operating capacity was 93.2 million tons [71]. - Demand: The operating capacity of the electrolytic aluminum industry increased slightly, leading to an increase in alumina demand [71] Cost and Profit - The cost of alumina increased slightly this week due to factors such as the price changes of bauxite, liquid caustic soda, and thermal coal. As of July 24, the industry cost was 2,997.62 yuan/ton, and the average profit was 250.36 yuan/ton [72]

Report Title - "Three major indices hit new highs for the year, with daily trading volume reaching 1.8 trillion" - Stock Index Option Weekly Report 2025.7.28 [1] Core View - This week, the A-share market continued its upward trend, with the three major indices hitting new highs for the year and daily trading volume exceeding 1.7 trillion. For the CSI 300 Index, the moving averages showed a long - position arrangement, and the three - color K - line indicators remained red both daily and weekly. The IF futures' current - month contract's basis to the underlying first shrank and then expanded, while the next - month contract's discount to the current - month contract narrowed. The IO option's trading volume decreased, but the open interest increased, and both the trading volume PCR and open interest PCR rose, with implied volatility increasing, and the underlying index exceeding the strike - price range of the maximum open interest of call and put options. The CSI 1000 Index's daily and weekly K - line indicators were also positive. The IM futures' current - month contract's discount to the underlying first expanded and then shrank, and the next - month contract's discount to the current - month contract narrowed. The MO option's trading volume increased, and the open interest rose, with both PCRs rising, implied volatility increasing, and the strike prices of the maximum open interest of call and put options moving up. The SSE 50 Index also had positive K - line indicators. The IH futures' current - month contract turned to a premium over the underlying, and the next - month contract remained at a premium to the current - month contract. The HO option's trading volume decreased, the open interest increased, the trading volume PCR rose, the open interest PCR decreased, implied volatility increased, and the strike - price range of the maximum open interest of call and put options narrowed [2]. Summary by Directory 1. CSI 300 Stock Index Option (IO) - **Index Performance**: The CSI 300 Index had five consecutive weekly positive K - lines, and the three - color K - line indicator remained red. The daily moving averages were in a long - position arrangement, and the three - color K - line indicator also remained red [10][13]. - **Futures Basis**: The IF futures' current - month contract's basis to the underlying first shrank and then expanded, and the next - month contract's discount to the current - month contract narrowed [20][23]. - **Futures Trading Volume and Open Interest**: The trading volume of CSI 300 stock index futures decreased, and the open interest also decreased [25]. - **Option Trading Volume and Open Interest**: The trading volume of IO options decreased, but the open interest increased [28]. - **Option PCR**: Both the trading volume PCR and open interest PCR of IO options increased [31]. - **Option Strike Price**: The underlying index exceeded the strike - price range of the maximum open interest of call and put options, and the strike prices of the maximum open interest of call and put options for the 2508 contract were both 4100, with the option pain point at 4000 [15][34]. - **Implied Volatility**: The implied volatility of IO options increased [17] 2. CSI 1000 Stock Index Option (MO) - **Index Performance**: The CSI 1000 Index's daily moving averages were in a long - position arrangement, hitting a new high for the year, and the three - color K - line indicators remained red both daily and weekly [38][41]. - **Futures Basis**: The IM futures' current - month contract's discount to the underlying first expanded and then shrank, and the next - month contract's discount to the current - month contract narrowed [49][51]. - **Futures Trading Volume and Open Interest**: The trading volume of CSI 1000 stock index futures decreased, and the open interest also decreased [54]. - **Option Trading Volume and Open Interest**: The trading volume of MO options increased, and the open interest rose [57]. - **Option PCR**: Both the trading volume PCR and open interest PCR of MO options increased [60]. - **Option Strike Price**: The strike prices of the maximum open interest of call and put options for the 2508 contract were 6800 and 6500 respectively, and the option pain point was 6500. The strike prices of the maximum open interest of call and put options both moved up [43][63]. - **Implied Volatility**: The implied volatility of MO options increased [46] 3. SSE 50 Stock Index Option (HO) - **Index Performance**: The SSE 50 Index had five consecutive weekly positive K - lines, and the three - color K - line indicator remained red. The daily moving averages were in a long - position arrangement, and the three - color K - line indicator also remained red [67][70]. - **Futures Basis**: The IH futures' current - month contract turned to a premium over the underlying, and the next - month contract remained at a premium to the current - month contract [78][80]. - **Futures Trading Volume and Open Interest**: The trading volume of SSE 50 stock index futures decreased, and the open interest also decreased [83]. - **Option Trading Volume and Open Interest**: The trading volume of HO options decreased, but the open interest increased [85]. - **Option PCR**: The trading volume PCR of HO options increased, while the open interest PCR decreased [87]. - **Option Strike Price**: The strike prices of the maximum open interest of call and put options for the 2508 contract were 2800 and 2750 respectively, and the option pain point was 2750. The strike - price range of the maximum open interest of call and put options narrowed [72][88]. - **Implied Volatility**: The implied volatility of HO options increased [75] Strategy Recommendations - **Trend Strategy**: Pay attention to the strength - weakness arbitrage opportunities among varieties [2]. - **Volatility Strategy**: Buy a strangle to go long on volatility [2]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Views of the Report - After the concentrated release of positive sentiment last week, the market cooled down this week. Attention should be paid to tariff disturbances around August 1st and the messages released by the Politburo meeting. The five major steel products had a slight reduction in inventory. Rebar had both increased production and demand, and the apparent demand had a significant increase supported by the recovery of speculative demand, leading to a reduction in total inventory again. The decline in the apparent demand of hot-rolled coils was greater than the reduction in production, and the total inventory increased slightly, but the overall inventory accumulation was limited. Currently, the inventory contradiction of finished products was not prominent, and the core of off-season trading remained focused on macro - policy expectations. After the previous concentrated release of benefits, steel prices faced pressure at high levels, and with the pressure decline of coking coal at the raw material end, the cost decreased, and the black series was under pressure, showing a short - term weak and volatile operation [3]. - For iron ore, the supply from Australia and Brazil had a phased recovery, and the arrival volume was still in a downward process. The daily output of hot metal decreased slightly but was still at a high level year - on - year, and the port clearance volume decreased slightly. The port inventory was stable without obvious inventory accumulation pressure. In the medium term, there was still an expectation of an increase in overseas shipments of iron ore in the second half of the year. After the digestion of the macro - positive sentiment last week, iron ore faced pressure at high levels and the pressure of a decline this week [4]. - For coking coal and coke, the domestic mine production was stable. With the acceleration of market transactions, the inventory pressure was relieved. Coking enterprises were in a loss state due to cost pressure, and some low - inventory coking enterprises limited production to support prices. The increase in coke prices had been launched for four rounds. After multiple limit - up of coking coal, the Dalian Commodity Exchange adjusted the trading limit of coking coal futures, and short - term prices faced the pressure of a decline [5]. 3. Summary According to the Directory 3.1 Market Review - Macro - sentiment recovery and rising raw material costs led to steel prices reaching new highs. The prices of rebar, hot - rolled coils, iron ore, coking coal, and coke all increased. The positions of the top 20 long and short holders in futures contracts decreased. The basis of rebar and hot - rolled coils showed different changes, and the price differences also changed. The inventory of rebar decreased, and the inventory of hot - rolled coils increased slightly. The market trading core was concentrated on macro - policy expectations and raw material price fluctuations [9]. 3.2 Steel Supply and Demand Analysis - **Production**: National rebar weekly output was 211.96 tons (up 1.39% month - on - month, down 2.18% year - on - year), and hot - rolled coil weekly output was 317.49 tons (down 1.14% month - on - month, down 3.27% year - on - year). Rebar blast furnace output increased, and electric furnace output decreased [15][17]. - **Operating Rate**: The national blast furnace operating rate was 83.46% (unchanged month - on - month, up 1.00% year - on - year), and the electric furnace operating rate was 72.02% (up 10.66% month - on - month, up 10.36% year - on - year) [27]. - **Profit**: Rebar profit was + 282 yuan/ton (up 64.91% week - on - week, up 362 yuan/ton year - on - year), and hot - rolled coil profit was + 146 yuan/ton (up 78.77% week - on - week, up 307 yuan/ton year - on - year) [31]. - **Demand**: Rebar apparent consumption was 216.58 tons (up 5.05% month - on - month, up 0.45% year - on - year), and hot - rolled coil apparent consumption was 315.24 tons (down 2.64% month - on - month, down 1.86% year - on - year) [35][37]. - **Inventory**: Rebar total inventory was 538.64 tons (down 0.85% month - on - month, down 29.15% year - on - year), and hot - rolled coil total inventory was 345.16 tons (up 0.66% month - on - month, down 19.76% year - on - year) [41][46]. - **Downstream**: In the real estate sector, the weekly commercial housing transaction area in 30 large - and medium - sized cities increased by 4.24% month - on - month and decreased by 16.60% year - on - year. The weekly land transaction area in 100 large - and medium - sized cities decreased by 14.31% month - on - month and decreased by 45.13% year - on - year. In the automotive sector, in June 2025, automobile production and sales were 2.794 million and 2.904 million respectively, up 5.5% and 8.1% month - on - month, and up 11.4% and 13.8% year - on - year [49][52]. 3.3 Iron Ore Supply and Demand Analysis - **Supply**: The iron ore price index was 104 (up 4.16% month - on - month, up 1.75% year - on - year). The shipments from 19 ports in Australia and Brazil were 2677.8 tons (up 8.02% month - on - month, up 7.65% year - on - year), and the arrival volume at 45 ports was 2240.5 tons (down 5.51% month - on - month, up 22.97% year - on - year) [59]. - **Demand**: The daily output of hot metal was 242.33 tons (down 0.21 tons month - on - month, up 2.62 tons year - on - year), the port clearance volume at 45 ports was 315.15 tons (down 2.35% month - on - month, up 0.45% year - on - year), and the inventory - to - sales ratio of 247 steel enterprises was 29.51 days (up 0.75% month - on - month, down 5.84% year - on - year) [64]. - **Inventory**: The inventory at 45 ports was 13790.38 tons (up 0.04% month - on - month, down 8.61% year - on - year), the imported iron ore inventory of 247 steel enterprises was 8885.22 tons (up 0.71% month - on - month, down 3.47% year - on - year), and the average available days of iron ore for 114 steel enterprises was 23.51 days (up 2.48% month - on - month, up 13.36% year - on - year) [70]. 3.4 Coking Coal and Coke Supply and Demand Analysis - **Supply**: The operating rate of coking coal mines was 86.9% (up 0.96% month - on - month, down 4.37% year - on - year), the operating rate of coal washing plants was 62.31% (down 0.86% month - on - month, down 9.14% year - on - year), and the daily Mongolian coal customs clearance volume was 154400 tons (up 21.57% month - on - month, down 2.72% year - on - year) [76]. - **Coking Enterprises**: The profit per ton of coke for independent coking enterprises was - 54 yuan/ton (down 11 yuan/ton month - on - month, down 97 yuan/ton year - on - year), the capacity utilization rate of independent coking enterprises was 73.45% (up 0.60% month - on - month, down 0.90% year - on - year), and the capacity utilization rate of steel mill coke was 86.97% [84]. - **Inventory**: The coking coal inventory of independent coking enterprises was 841.27 tons (up 6.46% month - on - month, up 11.57% year - on - year), the steel mill coking coal inventory was 799.34 tons (up 1.06% month - on - month, up 7.10% year - on - year), and the coking coal port inventory was 292.34 tons (down 9.07% month - on - month, up 5.73% year - on - year). The coke inventory of independent coking enterprises was 50.12 tons (down 9.78% month - on - month, up 42.35% year - on - year), the steel mill coke inventory was 639.98 tons (up 0.15% month - on - month, up 17.86% year - on - year), and the coke port inventory was 198.13 tons (down 0.49% month - on - month, up 0.20% year - on - year) [90][96]. - **Spot Price**: Coke started the fourth round of price increases [97]. 3.5 Spread Analysis - The basis of rebar and hot - rolled coils both contracted, and the 10 - 01 spread of rebar and hot - rolled coils fluctuated narrowly. The 9 - 1 spread of iron ore and the coil - to - rebar spread both decreased slightly [104][110].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Views of the Report - **Macro Environment**: Domestic policy signals are released, leading to a positive sentiment. The US has reached trade agreements with Japan and the EU, improving market sentiment [4]. - **Supply - Demand Situation**: In the East China region, supply - demand fluctuations are relatively limited this week, with no planned device maintenance and sufficient supply. The off - season continues as non - aluminum demand shows no significant improvement. The inventory of liquid caustic soda in the main production areas of Shandong Province remains at a low level [4]. - **Overall Logic**: Caustic soda has strong cost support at the bottom. The domestic "anti - involution" drives the market sentiment to strengthen. However, if the futures price has a high premium over the spot price, beware of the risk of a decline [4]. - **Strategy Suggestion**: For the caustic soda 2509 contract, the upper reference pressure level is 2750 yuan/ton, and the lower support level is 2350 yuan/ton [4]. 3. Summary According to the Table of Contents 3.1 Market Review - **Spot Market**: The price of Shandong liquid caustic soda remained stable. The basis of Shandong 32% liquid caustic soda widened. From July 2024 to July 2025, data on the prices of 32% and 50% ion - membrane caustic soda in Shandong, as well as the prices of 99% flake caustic soda in Shandong and the northwest, were presented. The price of 32% ion - membrane caustic soda in Shandong decreased by 1.19% to 830 yuan/ton, the price of 50% ion - membrane caustic soda decreased by 2.19% to 1340 yuan/ton, and the price of 98% flake caustic soda in the northwest increased by 7.26% to 3250 yuan/ton. The price of liquid chlorine in Shandong decreased by 33.33% to - 400 yuan/ton, and the price of alumina increased by 1.75% to 3195 yuan/ton [9][12][18]. - **Futures Market**: Data on the futures closing prices of caustic soda, soda ash, alumina, and PVC from July 2024 to July 2025 were presented, along with the caustic soda futures closing price and the number of warehouse receipts [15][16]. 3.2 Market Analysis 3.2.1 Supply Side: Production and Operating Rate - **Current Situation**: From January to July 2025, data on the weekly production, operating rate, and device loss of caustic soda were presented. In the week of July 18 - 24, 2025, the average operating rate of 200,000 - ton and above caustic soda sample enterprises in China was 84.0%, a month - on - month increase of 1.4%. The operating rates in North China, East China, Northeast China, and South China increased, while that in Central China decreased. Shandong's operating rate increased to 87.6%. It is estimated that the operating rate this week will be around 84%, with a weekly output of about 822,900 tons [20][22]. - **Maintenance Plan**: There are planned device maintenance in the Northwest this week. Some enterprises in East China, North China, Northeast China, and Southwest China have maintenance plans in August [22][23]. 3.2.2 Downstream: Alumina - **Supply Situation**: In the current week, the supply of the alumina market decreased slightly. Due to the short - term maintenance of two roasting furnaces in an alumina plant in the Southwest, the supply shortage in the South intensified, while the supply in the North was relatively loose. As of July 24, the built - in capacity of alumina in China was 114.8 million tons, and the operating capacity was 93.2 million tons [25]. - **Operating Rate and Profit**: Data on the weekly operating rate and industry cost - profit of alumina from January to December 2018 - 2025 were presented [26]. 3.2.3 Inventory - **Overall Inventory**: As of July 24, 2025, the factory inventory of 200,000 - ton and above fixed liquid caustic soda sample enterprises in the country was 408,400 wet tons, a month - on - month increase of 6.38% and a year - on - year increase of 4.29%. The storage capacity ratio was 24.06%, a month - on - month increase of 1.82%. Except for the Northwest and Central China, the storage capacity ratios in other regions increased [30]. - **Regional Inventory**: In North China, inventory increased due to high - price downstream resistance and increased supply. In South China, inventory rebounded as the main factory resumed full - load operation. In Central China, inventory decreased as some enterprises' sales improved. In East China, inventory increased due to the off - season of non - aluminum demand and general export orders. In the Northwest, inventory decreased as downstream procurement enthusiasm increased. In Southwest China, inventory increased slightly as enterprises maintained production and downstream demand was mainly for rigid needs [30]. 3.2.4 Liquid Chlorine - **Price**: As of July 24, 2025, the price of liquid chlorine in Shandong decreased, with a weekly average price of - 400 yuan/ton, a month - on - month decrease of 1.75%. The demand for liquid chlorine decreased due to the non - recovery of downstream methane devices in Liaocheng and the shutdown of chlorine - consuming downstream devices in Zibo [33]. - **PVC Operating Rate**: As of July 25, 2025, the operating rate of PVC in China was 76.79%, a month - on - month decrease of 0.80%. It is estimated that the operating rate this week will be 76.86%, and the overall supply is expected to increase [33]. - **Profit**: In the week of July 18 - 24, 2025, the average weekly profit of Shandong chlor - alkali enterprises was 136 yuan/ton, a month - on - month increase of 4.62%. Although the price of liquid caustic soda in Shandong decreased and the liquid chlorine subsidy decreased, the overall chlor - alkali profit showed an upward trend [34].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating There is no information about the industry investment rating in the provided report. 2. Core View of the Report The report presents a comprehensive market analysis, covering macro - economic indicators, various commodity futures, and A - share market trends. It also includes macro - news and specific views on different product sectors. For the commodity market, most products show price fluctuations, and the market situation is complex with multiple influencing factors. In the A - share market, the overall trend is upward, but there are short - term fluctuations and uncertainties, and market attention is focused on several important events and meetings [2][7][21]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs 3.1 Commodity Index Daily Market Tracking - **Macro Indicators**: The Dow Jones Industrial Index, Nasdaq Index, and S&P 500 all rose on July 28, 2025, with increases of 0.465%, 0.239%, and 0.397% respectively. The Hang Seng Index fell by 1.086%. SHIBOR overnight decreased by 7.034%, and the dollar index dropped by 0.079%. The dollar - to - RMB exchange rate remained unchanged [2]. - **External Futures Contracts**: Most external futures contracts such as COMEX gold, COMEX silver, LME copper, etc. declined. For example, COMEX gold dropped by 0.973%, and COMEX silver fell by 2.444% [2]. - **Domestic Futures Contracts**: Domestic metal, chemical, and agricultural product futures also showed price changes. For instance, in the metal sector, gold dropped by 0.448%, and in the chemical sector, coke decreased by 8.111%. Among agricultural products, yellow soybean No.1 fell by 0.379% [2][5]. 3.2 Macro News - **Industrial Profits**: In June, the profit of industrial enterprises above designated size decreased by 4.3% year - on - year, with a narrowing decline compared to May. From January to June, the total profit was 3436.5 billion yuan, a 1.8% year - on - year decrease. The profit of the ferrous metal smelting and rolling processing industry increased by 13.7 times year - on - year, while that of the mining industry decreased by 30.3% [7]. - **US - EU Trade Agreement**: The US and the EU reached a 15% tariff agreement. The EU will increase investment in the US by 60 billion US dollars, purchase US military equipment and 150 billion US dollars of energy products. Some products will be exempt from tariffs [7]. - **Central Enterprise Research**: The director of the State - owned Assets Supervision and Administration Commission of the State Council went to Shanghai to research the layout and development of strategic emerging industries of central enterprises, aiming to support central enterprises in enhancing innovation and developing emerging pillar industries [8]. - **Provincial Economic Data**: The economic performance of the six central provinces was remarkable. Except for Shanxi with a GDP growth of 3.8%, the growth rates of Anhui, Jiangxi, Henan, Hubei, and Hunan all exceeded the national average of 5.3% [8]. - **Agricultural Policy**: Ten departments including the Ministry of Agriculture and Rural Affairs jointly issued a plan to promote agricultural product consumption, including measures such as strengthening supervision and financial support [9]. - **Logistics Cost**: In the first half of the year, the ratio of total social logistics costs to GDP dropped to 14%, a decrease of 0.1 and 0.2 percentage points compared to the first quarter and the same period last year respectively [9]. - **AI Development**: The deputy director of the State - owned Assets Supervision and Administration Commission of the State Council emphasized the importance of promoting the high - quality development of the artificial intelligence industry [9]. 3.3 Main Product Morning Meeting Views - **Agricultural Products** - **Peanuts**: The peanut market is in a situation of weak supply and demand, with prices expected to fluctuate slightly and maintain a downward trend in the short term [11]. - **Oils and Fats**: The oils and fats market has light trading volume, with stable basis. It is expected to fluctuate in the near future [11]. - **Sugar**: On July 25, sugar futures rose by 0.39%. The fundamentals are a mix of long and short factors. Technically, it has broken through the upper limit of the original shock range. It is recommended to maintain a short - term rebound strategy but beware of callbacks [12]. - **Corn**: On July 25, corn futures fell by 0.3%. The market has weak supply and demand. It is recommended to conduct short - term range trading and pay attention to import policies and substitute price differences [13]. - **Pigs and Eggs**: The spot price of pigs is falling, and the futures are relatively strong, expected to fluctuate within a range. The spot price of eggs is stable, and the futures have a greater callback pressure. It is recommended to reduce long positions and enter short positions [15]. - **Energy and Chemicals** - **Caustic Soda**: The price of caustic soda in Shandong is expected to stabilize. The futures price is affected by coal price increases, and attention should be paid to the 9 - 11 reverse spread [15]. - **Urea**: The domestic urea market price is slightly weak. Supply and demand are both decreasing, but there are expectations of improvement in autumn fertilizers and export demand. Attention should be paid to the impact of macro policies [15]. - **Industrial Metals** - **Copper and Aluminum**: Copper prices are oscillating at high levels due to weak overseas macro factors. Aluminum prices are expected to oscillate at high levels due to supply increases and consumption off - seasons [15][17]. - **Alumina**: The price of alumina has rebounded significantly, and there is a risk of increased short - term volatility [17]. - **Steel Products**: The prices of rebar and hot - rolled coils fell at night on Friday. The rebar market has increased production and demand, and the inventory has decreased again. The hot - rolled coil market has decreased production and demand, and the inventory has slightly increased. Attention should be paid to short - term price callback risks [17]. - **Ferroalloys**: The fundamentals of ferroalloys have not changed much. They are mainly affected by coal prices and macro - policy expectations. It is recommended to operate with caution [17]. - **Coking Coal and Coke**: The production and inventory of coking coal and coke have changed. The price of coke has increased in three rounds, and the fourth round has started. However, the coking coal futures price dropped sharply on Friday night, and short - term fluctuations may continue [17][18]. - **Lithium Carbonate**: On July 25, lithium carbonate futures rose by 7.99%. The fundamentals are a mix of long and short factors. It is recommended to go long with a light position but beware of risks [19]. - **Options and Finance** - **Stock Index**: On July 24, A - share indices rose. The market is paying attention to Sino - US economic and trade talks, the Politburo meeting, and the Fed's interest - rate meeting. It is recommended to pay attention to low - buying opportunities of IF, IM, and IC and conduct rolling operations [21][22]. - **Options**: On July 25, A - share indices slightly adjusted. The trading volume and open interest of options changed, and the implied volatility increased. Trend investors should focus on arbitrage opportunities, and volatility investors should buy straddles to go long on volatility [23][24].

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings No relevant content provided. 2. Core Views of the Report - The upward trend of the stock index remains unchanged, and the Shanghai Composite Index has reached a new starting point. However, there may be a consolidation process above 3600 points. Attention should be paid to the trading opportunities of IF, IM, and IC [2]. - For options, trend investors should focus on the strength - weakness arbitrage opportunities among varieties, and volatility investors should buy wide - straddles to go long on volatility [3]. - Aluminum prices may maintain high - level consolidation in the short term [3]. - For coking coal, temporarily pay attention to the support around 1000, and for coke, focus on the support around 1500 [3]. - Urea shows a pattern of double - reduction in supply and demand in the short term, but there is an expected improvement in autumn fertilizer demand [4]. - For ferroalloys, industrial selling hedges can wait and see, and avoid chasing high at present [4]. - Steel prices are expected to face short - term correction pressure, with support levels for rebar around 3100 - 3150 and for hot - rolled coils around 3250 - 3300 [4]. - For eggs, go long on the 8/9 contracts at low prices, as the production and seasonal cycles are approaching [4]. - Hog futures are expected to maintain range - bound oscillations next week [5]. 3. Summaries by Variety Stock Index - On Thursday, most European and American stock markets rose, with the S&P 500 and Nasdaq hitting new highs. Trump visited the Fed and discussed interest rates with Powell. The Shanghai Composite Index attacked 3600 points again on Friday and finally closed above it. The three major A - share indices are above the 5 - day moving average, and the trading volume of the two markets remains above 1.8 trillion yuan. Market attention focuses on the China - US economic and trade talks, the Politburo meeting, and the Fed's July interest - rate meeting [2]. Options - This week, the A - share market continued to rise, with the three major indices hitting new highs for the year. The trading volume was above 1.7 trillion yuan per day. The moving averages of the CSI 300, CSI 1000, and SSE 50 indices are in a long - position arrangement, and the K - line indicators are red. The basis of futures contracts and the PCR and implied volatility of options have changed to different degrees [3]. Aluminum - Overseas tariffs have been confirmed and are lower than expected, and domestic "anti - involution" policies have driven up the prices of related industrial products. However, due to the release of supply increments and the off - season of consumption, the expectation of inventory accumulation is still strong [3]. Coking Coal and Coke - The utilization rate of coking coal mines has increased, with an increase in daily production and a decrease in inventory. The online transactions have continued to rise, and coke prices have increased by three rounds and a fourth - round increase has started. However, the adjustment of trading limits by the Dalian Commodity Exchange has caused short - term pressure on double coking [3]. Urea - The domestic urea market price has been running weakly. There are both device overhauls and restarts, resulting in a phased reduction in supply. The inventory has continued to decline, but the decline rate has narrowed. The agricultural demand is approaching the end, and the demand for autumn fertilizers is weak, but there are still support factors such as export demand [4]. Ferroalloys - Although the supply - demand pattern of ferroalloys has not changed much compared to the first half of the year, the raw material coal and macro - policy expectations have changed. The "silicon" series of commodities are relatively strong, and ferroalloys have followed the upward trend [4]. Rebar and Hot - Rolled Coils - The inventory of the five major steel products has decreased slightly. Rebar production and demand have both increased, and the inventory has decreased again. Hot - rolled coil production and demand have both decreased, and the total inventory has increased slightly. The raw material prices have fluctuated greatly, and steel billet prices have been adjusted downwards [4]. Eggs - The national egg spot price was stable last week and declined after reaching the peak on the weekend. High - temperature weather in the north has affected the laying rate, and the supply pressure has been relieved. The inventory in most production areas has decreased, and the market demand has increased, with a strong bullish sentiment [4]. Hogs - The spot price of hogs has continued to decline, with high supply and low demand due to hot weather. However, futures have performed relatively strongly, driven by the overall commodity market and expectations of future consumption improvement [5]

1. Market Index and Commodity Price Tracking 1.1 Macro Indicators - The Dow Jones Industrial Index decreased by 0.703% to 44,693.91, the Nasdaq Index rose by 0.180% to 21,057.96, and the S&P 500 increased by 0.070% to 6,363.35. The Hang Seng Index rose by 0.506% to 25,667.18 [2]. - SHIBOR overnight increased by 19.605% to 1.64, the US Dollar Index decreased by 0.033% to 97.46, and the US Dollar to RMB (CFETS) remained unchanged [2]. 1.2 International Commodity Futures - COMEX gold decreased by 0.771% to 3,371.30, COMEX silver decreased by 0.595% to 39.29, and LME copper decreased by 0.795% to 9,854.50 [2]. 1.3 Domestic Commodity Futures - In the metal sector, domestic gold decreased by 0.085% to 778.08, silver decreased by 0.181% to 9,369.00, and copper decreased by 0.751% to 79,290.00 [2]. - In the chemical sector, coking coal increased by 2.837% to 1,232.50, natural rubber increased by 1.050% to 15,405.00, and plastic increased by 0.853% to 7,448.00 [4]. - In the agricultural product sector, yellow soybean No. 1 decreased by 0.071% to 4,221.00, and soybean meal increased by 0.132% to 3,029.00 [4]. 2. Macro News - Premier Li Qiang will attend the opening ceremony of the 2025 World Artificial Intelligence Conference and deliver a speech on July 26 [6]. - The Ministry of Commerce will take measures to combat strategic mineral smuggling and export, including establishing a joint law - enforcement coordination center for dual - use item export control [6]. - President Xi Jinping put forward three proposals for the future development of China - EU relations during a meeting with European leaders [6]. - The central bank and the Ministry of Agriculture and Rural Affairs issued an opinion to strengthen financial services for rural reform and promote rural revitalization [6]. - The National Development and Reform Commission has basically allocated 735 billion yuan of central budgetary investment in 2025, focusing on modern industrial systems, infrastructure, urbanization, and rural revitalization [6]. - The central bank will conduct 400 billion yuan of MLF operations on July 25, with a net investment of 100 billion yuan this month [7]. - During the 14th Five - Year Plan period, the national basic medical insurance participation rate remained stable at around 95%, and the cumulative balance of the medical insurance pooling fund reached 3.86 trillion yuan by the end of 2024 [7]. 3. Morning Meeting Views on Major Varieties 3.1 Agricultural Products - Peanut market prices are stable, with a weak supply - demand pattern. In the short term, it is expected to fluctuate strongly but maintain a downward trend [10]. - The trading volume of edible oils increased significantly on July 10. The market is expected to fluctuate in the near future [10]. - The sugar futures market is in a state of long - short confrontation. It is expected to fluctuate in the range of 5,850 - 5,900 yuan/ton. High - selling and low - buying within the range are recommended [10]. - Corn futures prices are in a narrow - range oscillation. It is recommended to take a range - oscillation approach and pay attention to the breakthrough of the 2,320 - 2,330 yuan/ton range [10]. - The supply of live pigs exceeds demand, and short - term price increases lack sustainability. After the futures price repairs the basis, it will maintain an oscillatory trend [12]. - Egg prices are stable. Upstream inventory is low, and downstream demand is strong. However, the futures market is under selling pressure due to the approaching delivery month [12]. 3.2 Energy and Chemicals - The price of caustic soda has increased significantly this week. It is recommended to pay attention to the 9 - 11 reverse spread [12]. - The urea market shows a pattern of decreasing supply and demand. It is necessary to pay attention to macro - policy impacts and the progress of autumn fertilizers [12]. 3.3 Industrial Metals - Copper prices are oscillating at a high level due to tight supply, weak demand, and uncertain macro - policies [13]. - Aluminum prices are expected to oscillate at a high level due to increased supply, off - season consumption, and policy sentiment [13]. - Alumina prices have rebounded significantly this week. It is necessary to be vigilant against increased short - term fluctuations [13]. - The supply - demand contradiction of steel products is not prominent. Steel prices are mainly affected by macro - sentiment and raw material trends [13]. - The performance of ferroalloys was weak on Thursday. It is not advisable to chase high prices. It is recommended to wait for important meetings and policy implementation [14]. - The prices of coking coal and coke are maintaining a strong pattern in the short term [14]. - The price of lithium carbonate futures has significantly increased. It is recommended to pay attention to the effectiveness of breaking through the 76,000 yuan/ton key pressure level [14]. 3.4 Options and Finance - On July 24, the three major A - share indexes rose collectively. It is recommended to pay attention to the low - buying opportunities of IF, IM, and IC, and conduct high - selling and low - buying operations [14][15][16]. - The trading volume and open interest of stock index futures and options have changed. Trend investors can focus on inter - variety strength - weakness arbitrage opportunities, and volatility investors can buy straddles to bet on increased volatility [17][18].

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content Core Viewpoints of the Report - The overall market shows a positive trend with strong capital willingness to go long. The upward trend of the market will continue, but sharp drops should be watched out for. The Politburo meeting at the end of the month will guide future market investment opportunities. It is recommended to be optimistic in the short - term, follow the trend, and take advantage of adjustments. Pay attention to the low - buying opportunities of IF, IM, and IC [17][18][19] Summary by Relevant Catalogs 1. Market Index and Commodity Price Tracking - **Macro Index**: On July 24, 2025, major stock indices such as the Dow Jones Industrial Index, Nasdaq Index, S&P 500, and Hang Seng Index all rose, with the Hang Seng Index having the largest increase of 1.624%. The SHIBOR overnight rate increased by 3.797%, while the dollar index decreased slightly by 0.036%. The dollar - to - RMB exchange rate remained unchanged [2] - **Commodity Futures**: For foreign and domestic commodity futures, prices showed different trends. For example, COMEX gold decreased by 1.350%, while LME tin increased by 2.447%. Among domestic commodities, coking coal increased by 2.510%, and coke decreased by 0.878% [2][4] 2. Macro News - **International Trade**: Chinese Vice - Premier He Lifeng will go to Sweden for economic and trade talks with the US from July 27 to 30. US President Trump said he would impose 15% - 50% simple tariffs on most other countries in the world [6][7] - **Domestic Policy and Industry News**: Hainan Free Trade Port will start the whole - island customs - sealing operation on December 18. The government will take measures to promote the high - quality development of the pig industry, and the new construction and renovation of old urban communities are progressing. The power generation installed capacity has increased significantly, especially in solar and wind power [6][7] 3. Morning Meeting Views on Main Varieties 3.1 Agricultural Products - **Peanuts**: The peanut market is in a state of weak supply and demand, with prices expected to fluctuate strongly in the short - term but still in a downward trend [10] - **Oils and Fats**: The oils and fats market has light trading volume and stable basis, and is expected to fluctuate in the near future [10] - **Sugar**: The sugar market is under pressure on the supply side and supported on the demand side. It is recommended to operate in the range with 5830 yuan as the center, and be cautious about the risk of spot price loosening [10] - **Corn**: The corn market is in a multi - empty intertwined situation, with prices expected to fluctuate in the range of 2300 - 2330 yuan [10] - **Pigs**: The supply of pigs exceeds demand, and the short - term upward trend is questionable. After the futures repair the basis, it will maintain a volatile trend [10][12] - **Eggs**: The egg price is rising, and there is still room for an increase in the short - term, with a seasonal upward trend starting to appear [12] 3.2 Energy and Chemical Products - **Caustic Soda**: The price of caustic soda in Shandong is expected to decline steadily, and it is recommended to pay attention to the 9 - 11 spread [12] - **Urea**: The urea market shows a pattern of double - reduction in supply and demand, and it is necessary to continue to pay attention to macro - impacts and the follow - up of autumn fertilizers [12] 3.3 Industrial Metals - **Copper and Aluminum**: The supply of copper is currently tight, and the demand is weak. The price of aluminum is expected to fluctuate at a high level in the short - term [12][13] - **Alumina**: The price of alumina has rebounded significantly, and it is necessary to be vigilant about increased short - term fluctuations [13] - **Steel and Iron Alloys**: The prices of steel products are expected to be under pressure at high levels and face short - term adjustments. The rise of iron alloys has slowed down, and it is not advisable to chase high prices [13] - **Coking Coal and Coke**: The prices of coking coal and coke are relatively strong, but the upward trend may gradually slow down [15] - **Lithium Carbonate**: The price of lithium carbonate has fallen below the key support level of 70,000 yuan. It is recommended to wait and see, and consider short - selling at high levels if it rebounds [15] 3.4 Options and Finance - **Stock Index**: The upward trend of the A - share market will continue, but sharp drops should be watched out for. Pay attention to the low - buying opportunities of IF, IM, and IC, and follow the trend in operation [17][18][19] - **Options**: Trend investors can pay attention to the strength - weakness arbitrage opportunities between varieties, and volatility investors can buy straddles to go long on volatility [21]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The market shows a complex trend, with various commodities and financial indices having different performances. The macro - economic environment has multiple influencing factors, and investors need to pay attention to policy changes and market supply - demand relationships [7][8][11]. - For different sectors, such as agriculture, energy - chemical, industrial metals, and option - finance, the market is expected to have different trends, including shocks, upward or downward movements, and investors should make decisions based on specific market conditions [11][14][17]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs 3.1 Commodity Index Daily Market Tracking - **Macro Indicators**: On July 23, 2025, at 08:00, the Dow Jones Industrial Index was 44502.44, up 0.405% from the previous day; the Nasdaq Index was 20892.69, down 0.388%; the S&P 500 was 6309.62, up 0.064%; the Hang Seng Index was 25130.03, up 0.544%. The SHIBOR overnight rate was 1.32, down 3.587%; the US dollar index was 97.48, up 0.129%; the US dollar against the RMB (CFETS) remained unchanged [2]. - **External Futures Contracts**: COMEX gold was 3444.00, up 0.988%; COMEX silver was 39.66, up 1.070%; LME copper was 9898.00, up 0.314%; LME aluminum was 2652.00, up 0.417%; LME zinc was 2853.50, up 0.316%; LME lead was 2014.50, down 0.025%; LME tin was 33920.00, up 0.728%; LME nickel was 15530.00, up 0.129%; ICE 11 - sugar was 16.26, down 0.611%; ICE 2 - cotton was 68.26, up 0.250%; CBOT soybeans was 1026.00, down 0.073%; CBOT soybean meal was 286.90, up 0.702%; CBOT soybean oil was 55.48, down 0.573%; CBOT corn was 417.50, down 1.183%; NYMEX crude oil was 65.45, down 0.502%; ICE Brent crude was 68.67, down 0.608% [2]. - **Domestic Futures Contracts - Metals**: Gold was 792.94, up 1.032%; silver was 9453.00, up 0.639%; copper was 79970.00, up 0.288%; zinc was 22970.00, up 0.109%; aluminum was 20925.00, up 0.120%; tin was 269320.00, up 0.298%; lead was 16945.00, up 0.089%; nickel was 123730.00, up 0.008%; iron ore was 818.50, down 0.547%; alumina was 3487.00, down 0.740%; rebar was 3302.00, down 0.151%; stainless steel was 12975.00, up 0.348%; hot - rolled coil was 3464.00, down 0.374% [2]. - **Domestic Futures Contracts - Chemicals**: Coking coal was 1135.50, up 8.298%; coke was 1731.50, up 2.003%; natural rubber was 15075.00, up 0.10%; 20 - rubber was 12900.00, up 0.350%; plastic was 7346.00, down 0.299%; polypropylene PP was 7147.00, down 0.293%; PTA was 4802.00, up 0.167%; asphalt was 3613.00, up 0.111%; methanol was 2449.00, down 0.326%; ethylene glycol was 4460.00, up 0.292%; styrene was 7452.00, down 0.388%; glass was 1237.00, down 0.961%; crude oil was 503.80, down 0.099%; fuel oil was 2873.00, down 1.744%; soda ash was 1380.00, up 0.364%; pulp was 5468.00, up 1.863%; caustic soda was 2645.00, down 0.489%; PX was 6878.00, down 0.116%; LPG was 3984.00, up 0.378% [5]. - **Domestic Futures Contracts - Agricultural Products**: Yellow soybean No.1 was 4241.00, up 0.213%; yellow soybean No.2 was 3730.00, up 0.188%; soybean meal was 3092.00, up 0.194%; rapeseed meal was 2738.00, up 0.073%; soybean oil was 8072.00, down 0.050%; rapeseed oil was 9450.00, down 0.285%; palm oil was 8954.00, up 0.314%; white sugar was 5819.00, down 0.069%; yellow corn was 2303.00, down 0.818%; corn starch was 2660.00, down 0.30%; No.1 cotton was 14235.00, up 0.070%; cotton yarn was 20450.00, up 0.098% [5]. 3.2 Macro - economic News - At the end of the second quarter, the balance of RMB real - estate loans was 53.33 trillion yuan, with a year - on - year increase of 0.4%, and personal housing loan balance was 37.74 trillion yuan, with a year - on - year decrease of 0.1% [7]. - The US reached trade agreements with the Philippines and Indonesia, with tariff adjustments and market - opening measures [7]. - The "Regulations on Rural Highways" will be implemented on September 15, 2025, aiming to promote the high - quality development of rural highways [7]. - The US - China new - round negotiation may discuss China's purchase of oil from Russia and Iran, and China hopes to promote the stable and healthy development of bilateral relations through dialogue [8]. - China is dissatisfied with the WTO's arbitration ruling in the China - EU trade dispute and will handle it properly according to WTO rules [8]. - In the first half of the year, non - bank sector cross - border capital inflows were 127.3 billion US dollars, and foreign investors net - increased holdings of domestic stocks and funds by 10.1 billion US dollars, reversing the net - reduction trend of the past two years [8]. - Central enterprises are required to actively participate in urban development and new - quality productivity construction [8]. - More than 66 million consumers bought over 109 million home appliances through trade - in programs, and over 69 million consumers bought over 74 million digital products this year [9]. - In the first half of the year, China's shipbuilding completion, new orders, and order backlog ranked first globally [9]. 3.3 Morning Meeting Views on Major Varieties - **Agricultural Products**: Peanut market is in a weak supply - demand situation, with prices expected to be weakly volatile; the oil market is expected to be volatile, with increased exports of soybeans and palm oil; sugar futures are affected by supply - demand factors, with prices in a key range; corn is in a game between policy support and weak demand, with suggestions to go long lightly; the pig market is oversupplied, with prices adjusting; the egg market has rising prices due to reduced production and increased demand [11][14]. - **Energy and Chemicals**: Caustic soda has strong cost support and rising market sentiment, with attention to the 9 - 11 reverse spread; urea prices are expected to be strongly volatile, with attention to export quotas and autumn fertilizer procurement; copper prices are expected to be sorted in a high - level range, and aluminum prices are expected to be volatile at high levels; alumina prices are expected to continue to be strong; steel prices are expected to be firm in the short term; ferroalloys may continue to rise with policy expectations; double - coking coal prices are strongly trending; lithium carbonate prices are driven by policies and rising ore prices, with suggestions to go long at low levels but beware of selling pressure [14][16][17]. - **Option - finance**: The A - share market maintains a slow - bull trend, with the market style possibly switching; in the short term, the operation is optimistic, with attention to the low - buying opportunities of IF, IM, and IC; in the option market, trend investors can pay attention to the strength - weakness arbitrage opportunities between varieties, and volatility investors can buy straddles to go long on volatility [17][18][19].

1. Market Index and Commodity Price Tracking - The Dow Jones Industrial Average closed at 44,323.07 on July 22, 2025, down 19.12 points or 0.043% from the previous trading day [2]. - The NASDAQ Composite Index closed at 20,974.17, up 78.51 points or 0.376% [2]. - The S&P 500 Index closed at 6,305.60, up 8.81 points or 0.140% [2]. - The Hang Seng Index closed at 24,994.14, up 168.48 points or 0.679% [2]. - COMEX gold futures rose 1.633% to $3,410.30 per ounce, and COMEX silver futures rose 2.121% to $39.24 per ounce [2]. - LME copper futures rose 0.740% to $9,867.00 per ton, and LME aluminum futures rose 0.114% to $2,641.00 per ton [2]. 2. Macroeconomic News - European Council President Charles Michel and European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen will visit China on July 24, 2025 [7]. - The State Council of China has announced the "Housing Rental Regulations," which will come into effect on September 15, 2025 [7]. - China's LPR remained unchanged in July 2025, with the 1 - year LPR at 3.0% and the 5 - year LPR at 3.5% [7]. - Hainan Free Trade Port has released detailed rules for cross - border asset management pilot projects, with an initial pilot scale limit of 10 billion yuan [8]. 3. Morning Meeting Views on Major Varieties 3.1 Agricultural Products - Peanut prices are expected to fluctuate slightly stronger in the short term but maintain a downward trend, with a continued weak supply - demand pattern [10]. - The oil market is expected to be volatile, with Brazil's soybean exports in July expected to increase by 24% year - on - year, and Malaysia's palm oil exports from July 1 - 10 up 5.31% month - on - month [10]. - Sugar futures rose slightly on July 21, with a narrow - range volatile trend. The market is in a weak supply - demand pattern, and the decline of US sugar prices restricts the rebound space of domestic sugar prices [10]. - Corn futures rose on July 21. The price has broken through the key resistance level of 2,300 yuan. It is recommended to go long at low levels, but beware of callback risks [10]. - Pig prices have been falling, and the supply in the next 2 - 3 months is expected to remain abundant, with futures prices remaining volatile [13]. - Egg prices are rising, with short - term upward adjustment space due to factors such as reduced production rates in high - temperature weather and increased demand from food factories [12]. 3.2 Energy and Chemicals - Caustic soda prices rose on Monday. Although the supply is increasing, the cost support is strong. Attention should be paid to the upper pressure range of 2,600 - 2,700 yuan/ton [13]. - Urea prices are expected to fluctuate strongly in the range of 1,720 - 1,850 yuan/ton. The supply is expected to increase, but there is still support from autumn fertilizer demand and export expectations [13]. 3.3 Industrial Metals - Copper prices are expected to consolidate in a high - level range. The US - EU agreement and the upcoming stable - growth plan for non - ferrous metals provide support, but demand has weakened [15]. - Aluminum prices are expected to fluctuate at high levels. Although relevant domestic policies have boosted prices, the inventory accumulation expectation is still strong [15]. - Alumina prices rebounded strongly on Monday and are expected to continue to operate strongly in the short term [15]. - Steel prices are expected to continue to fluctuate strongly in the short term, with the release of stable - growth work plans for key industries and positive macro - atmosphere [15]. - Ferroalloy prices are expected to have upward space in the short term, but in the long term, the over - capacity pattern remains unchanged [15]. 3.4 Options and Finance - The A - share market showed a strong upward trend on July 21. The ChiNext Index is approaching last year's high, small - cap stock indices are hitting new highs, and the Shanghai Composite Index is expected to break through the previous high [16]. - The "anti - involution" sector is fermenting, and the future cycle stock market is worth paying attention to. It is recommended to focus on IF, IM, and IC low - buying opportunities [17]. - For option investors, trend investors can focus on the strength - weakness arbitrage opportunities between varieties, and volatility investors can sell wide - straddle options to short volatility [19].