合金供需双弱 节前波动趋窄 ——铁合金周报20250929 研 究 咨 询 部 ：彭博涵 联 系 方 式 ：0371-58630083 电 子 邮 箱 ：pengbh_qh@ccnew.com 执 业证书 编 号 ：F3076814 投资咨询 编 号 ：Z0016415 01 硅铁 本期观点 | 品种 | 主要逻辑 | 策略建议 | 风险点 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | 供应：产量止降回升。 需求：五大材节前产量增加，带动钢需回升。 库存：厂库降幅放缓。 | | | | | 成本：兰炭铁皮小幅上涨。 | | 反内卷政 | | | 基差：盘面小幅贴水。 | 宽幅震荡， | 策、中美 | | 硅铁 | | 高抛低吸 | 贸易谈判 | | | 总结：长假临近，上周双硅跟随黑色系震荡偏弱运行。供应端双硅表现分化，硅 | | 等政策不 | | | 铁开工率止降产量回升，锰硅产量下降主要受内蒙宁夏开工回落影响。硅铁厂库 | | 确定性 | | | 连续回落但降幅放缓，锰硅再度大幅累库。9月以来合金基本面供需变化不大，行 | | | | | 情缺乏预期和资金青睐，短期维持宽度震荡观点，节前 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The market continues to trade on the Fed's interest rate cut path, and attention should be paid to the latest US non - farm payroll data. During the National Day holiday, the market is shipping based on previous orders, and enterprises may face some pressure. The price of liquid caustic soda in the East China region is expected to remain stable, while in the Shandong market, due to the approaching holiday, there is no obvious positive news on the demand side, and the inventory of local alkali plants is likely to increase, with the possibility of price cuts in the near future. The spot trend in Shandong is weak, demand is lower than expected, and the futures price is running weakly. Attention should be paid to whether it can stop falling and stabilize after the holiday. The recommended trading strategy is to set the upper reference pressure level for the caustic soda 2601 contract at 2700 yuan/ton and the lower support level at 2400 yuan/ton [4]. 3. Summary According to the Directory 3.1 Market Review - **Spot Market**: The report presents multiple charts showing the price trends of caustic soda in different regions (Shandong, Jiangsu, Zhejiang), the price differences between different types of caustic soda (32% and 50% ion - membrane caustic soda, flake caustic soda), and the price relationships between caustic soda and related products (such as raw salt, liquid chlorine). The data is sourced from Wind and Mysteel. In the week from 20250919 - 20250925, the price of 32% ion - membrane caustic soda in Shandong remained at 800 yuan/ton, the price of 50% ion - membrane caustic soda decreased by 2.36% to 1270 yuan/ton, the price of 98% flake caustic soda in the Northwest remained at 3230 yuan/ton, and the price of liquid chlorine in Shandong remained at - 150 yuan/ton. The price of alumina in Shandong decreased by 1.86% to 2950 yuan/ton [10][13][18]. - **Futures Market**: The report shows the price trends of caustic soda futures and its comparison with other related futures (soda ash, alumina, PVC), as well as the relationship between the caustic soda futures price and the number of warehouse receipts. The data is sourced from Wind and Mysteel [16]. 3.2 Market Analysis - **Supply Side: Production and Operating Rate**: In the week of 20250919 - 0925, the average capacity utilization rate of Chinese caustic soda sample enterprises with a capacity of 200,000 tons and above was 82.5%, a week - on - week increase of 0.6%. The load in the Northwest decreased due to new device maintenance, while the load in North and East China increased after device maintenance. It is estimated that the weekly capacity utilization rate of caustic soda this week will be around 85.9%, and the weekly output will be around 845,700 tons. The report also lists the maintenance plans of multiple enterprises [22][23]. - **Downstream Demand**: For alumina, the current spot supply in northern China is relatively loose, while the market - available spot in Henan and Southwest China is still tight. The supply of domestic ore remains tight, and some enterprises continue to purchase imported ore. The production is relatively stable, but the narrowing profit due to falling prices makes enterprises more willing to negotiate lower prices for raw materials. It is expected that the domestic alumina price will continue to adjust weakly in the short term, with a price range of 2850 - 3100 yuan/ton. In the week of 20250919 - 20250925, the capacity utilization rate of the viscose staple fiber industry was 89.82%, a week - on - week increase of 0.3% [27]. - **Inventory**: As of September 25, 2025, the factory inventory of fixed liquid caustic soda sample enterprises with a capacity of 200,000 tons and above was 391,200 wet tons, a week - on - week increase of 3.4% and a year - on - year increase of 26.26%. The storage capacity ratio of liquid caustic soda sample enterprises was 20.78%, a week - on - week increase of 0.64%. The storage capacity ratios in the Northwest, North, Central, and East China increased, while those in the Northeast, South, and Southwest decreased. In the North China region, the demand for 32% caustic soda in Shandong was poor, and the inventory increased; the high - concentration caustic soda inventory decreased. In Tianjin and Hebei, the inventory increased due to increased supply. In the South China region, the inventory decreased due to reduced supply. In the Central China region, the inventory increased due to increased supply. In the East China region, the inventory increased slightly due to increased supply. In the Northwest region, the inventory in Gansu and Ningxia decreased due to maintenance, while the inventory in Shaanxi increased due to poor sales. In the Southwest region, the inventory decreased due to active pre - holiday stocking [30]. - **Liquid Chlorine**: As of September 25, 2025, the average price of liquid chlorine in Shandong increased by 32.26% to - 150 yuan/ton. The price increase was affected by the reduced supply in Jiangsu, and then remained stable. The supply and demand in Shandong did not change significantly, and downstream procurement was stable. In Hebei and the Northeast, the load of chlor - alkali enterprises increased, and downstream pre - holiday stocking was active, which supported the price of liquid chlorine. As of September 26, 2025, the capacity utilization rate of Chinese PVC was 76.96%, a week - on - week decrease of 2.98%. It is estimated that the capacity utilization rate this week will increase to 82.17% due to the increased operation of some enterprises. In the week of 20250919 - 20250925, the average weekly profit of Shandong chlor - alkali enterprises was 258 yuan/ton, a week - on - week decrease of 21.34%. The theoretical production cost of caustic soda remained stable, the caustic soda price decreased significantly, the average weekly price of liquid chlorine increased, and the chlor - alkali profit decreased [33][34].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - Based on the current warm macro - atmosphere, relatively low - valued steel prices, high iron - water production, and the short - term difficulty in forming obvious negative feedback pressure, steel prices are expected to fluctuate but have obvious support and a small rebound space [3]. - The supply of Australian and Brazilian iron ore has a phased increase, and the arrival volume is relatively lagging and shows a short - term decline. The demand for iron ore is supported by high - level iron - water production. Iron ore is expected to be firm in the short term, but the room for further upward movement is relatively limited [4]. - The supply of coking coal and coke has recovered, and there is no obvious inventory pressure. With the high - level iron - water production and the pre - holiday inventory replenishment expectation, as well as the approaching Fed rate - cut window, coking coal and coke are expected to have obvious low - level support and phased rebound momentum [5]. 3. Summary According to the Directory 3.1 Market Review - Last week, the inventory accumulation of the five major steel products slowed down slightly. The production and demand of rebar decreased, and the increase in total inventory narrowed, but the social inventory still increased significantly, indicating limited improvement in terminal demand and cautious market transactions. The supply and demand of hot - rolled coils increased, and the inventory decreased, with an improved fundamental situation. During the domestic policy vacuum period, steel prices showed a low - level weak adjustment [9]. 3.2 Steel Supply and Demand Analysis - **Production**: The national weekly rebar production was 211.93 million tons (down 3.09% month - on - month and up 12.78% year - on - year), and the hot - rolled coil production was 325.14 million tons (up 3.47% month - on - month and up 7.60% year - on - year). Rebar production decreased, while hot - rolled coil production increased [16][18]. - **Profit**: Rebar profit was - 14 yuan/ton (down 133% week - on - week and down 141 yuan/ton year - on - year), and hot - rolled coil profit was + 46 yuan/ton (up 35.29% week - on - week and up 173 yuan/ton year - on - year) [32]. - **Demand**: Rebar apparent consumption was 198.07 million tons (down 1.98% month - on - month and down 10.94% year - on - year), and hot - rolled coil apparent consumption was 326.16 million tons (up 6.81% month - on - month and up 3.23% year - on - year) [37]. - **Inventory**: Rebar total inventory was 653.86 million tons (up 2.17% month - on - month and up 32.46% year - on - year), and hot - rolled coil total inventory was 373.32 million tons (down 0.27% month - on - month and down 13.43% year - on - year) [41][46]. - **Downstream**: In the real estate market, the transaction volume of commercial housing and land continued to shrink month - on - month. In August 2025, China's automobile production and sales increased both month - on - month and year - on - year [49][52]. 3.3 Iron Ore Supply and Demand Analysis - **Supply**: The iron ore price index was 105.59 (up 1.22% month - on - month and up 14.85% year - on - year). The shipment from 19 ports in Australia and Brazil was 2850.8 million tons (up 25.75% month - on - month and down 1.78% year - on - year), and the arrival volume at 45 ports was 2362.3 million tons (down 3.50% month - on - month and up 9.60% year - on - year) [59]. - **Demand**: The daily iron - water production was 240.55 million tons (up 11.71 million tons month - on - month and up 17.17 million tons year - on - year), and the port clearance volume at 45 ports was 317.78 million tons (down 0.27% month - on - month and up 4.97% year - on - year) [64]. - **Inventory**: The iron ore inventory at 45 ports was 13849.47 million tons (up 0.17% month - on - month and down 9.55% year - on - year), and the imported iron ore inventory of 247 steel enterprises was 8993.05 million tons (up 0.59% month - on - month and down 1.07% year - on - year) [70]. 3.4 Coking Coal and Coke Supply and Demand Analysis - **Supply**: The coking coal mine operating rate was 82.71% (up 9.14% month - on - month and down 8% year - on - year), and the daily Mongolian coal customs clearance volume was 18.44 million tons (down 1.23% month - on - month and up 75.35% year - on - year) [76]. - **Demand**: The daily iron - water production was 240.55 million tons (up 11.71 million tons month - on - month and up 17.17 million tons year - on - year) [85]. - **Inventory**: The coking coal inventory of independent coking plants was 751.75 million tons (down 3.70% month - on - month and up 7.58% year - on - year), and the coke inventory of independent coking plants was 43.91 million tons (up 7.86% month - on - month and up 0.99% year - on - year) [91][97]. - **Spot Price**: Coke started the second round of price cuts, intensifying the game between steel and coke enterprises [98]. 3.5 Spread Analysis - The basis of rebar contracted from a high level, and the 10 - 1 spread of hot - rolled coils widened. The 1 - 5 spread of coking coal and coke continued to contract, and the 1 - 5 spread of iron ore contracted slightly [105][111].

Report Overview - The report is a strategy weekly report dated September 22, 2025, covering multiple investment varieties including options, stocks, and various commodities [1]. Industry Investment Rating - The report does not mention the industry investment rating. Core Views - For options, trend investors should focus on the strength - weakness arbitrage opportunities, and volatility investors should go long on volatility when the index rises and short on it when the index falls [2]. - For stocks, after continuous adjustment, there may be a repair expectation in the short - term, and the intensity of capital inflow is crucial. The index needs to break through the high point of 3899 with volume to turn strong [3]. - For aluminum, although the price is under pressure at high levels, there may still be upward momentum during the interest - rate cut cycle, and a逢 - low long strategy is recommended [3]. - For coking coal and coke, the high iron - water output supports the price in the short - term, but the upward space is limited [3]. - For other commodities, different varieties have different trends and investment suggestions based on their supply - demand fundamentals and market conditions [3][4]. Summary by Category Options - In the stock index options market, the trading volume of IO, MO, and HO options has increased, and the September positions have reached new highs. The implied volatility first rises and then falls, and the exercise prices of the maximum positions of call and put options have changed. The September contract expiration settlement prices of IO and HO have reached new highs, and the exercise rates of IO and MO have different trends [2]. Stocks - A - share trading volume exceeded 2.3 trillion on September 19, with the ChiNext Index having 7 consecutive weekly positive lines. The US stocks reached new highs due to factors such as the strengthening of the Fed's interest - rate cut expectation and good corporate earnings data. Energy metal and other sectors rose, while education and other sectors showed abnormal movements [3]. Commodities - **Aluminum**: The Fed cut interest rates by 25 basis points in September. The supply of the aluminum market has increased slightly, and the demand has recovered. The inventory pressure has been relieved, and the price may still have upward momentum [3]. - **Coking Coal and Coke**: The daily output of raw coal and clean coal has increased slightly, and the inventory has decreased. The market is concerned about production cuts due to the Inner Mongolia over - production inspection. The trading atmosphere has improved, and the prices of coking coal and coke are expected to be firm in the short - term, but the upward space is limited [3]. - **Urea**: The daily output of the urea industry has increased, and the downstream demand is weak. The inventory is accumulating, and the price may continue to fluctuate weakly [4]. - **Steel (Rebar and Hot - Rolled Coil)**: The rebar inventory has decreased, and the supply - demand structure has improved. The hot - rolled coil inventory has increased slightly. The steel price is expected to be firm in the short - term and fluctuate upward [4]. - **Eggs**: The spot egg price has reached the peak and then declined. The supply pressure is increasing, and the futures price may continue to be weak [4]. - **Pigs**: The spot price of pigs has continued to decline, hitting a new low this year. The supply is abundant, and the demand is weak. The price of the main 11 - contract may continue to decline [4].

Report Summary 1. Investment Rating The report does not mention the industry investment rating. 2. Core View - Macro aspect: The number of non - farm payrolls in the US in August increased by 22,000, significantly lower than market expectations, and the unemployment rate reached 4.3%, the highest since October 2021. Market expectations for three Fed rate cuts within the year have risen [4]. - Supply - demand aspect: There are still maintenance expectations in the East China region, and enterprise inventories are at a low level, so the liquid caustic soda price in this region is expected to rise steadily. In the Shandong market, the possibility of a short - term increase in low - concentration caustic soda is small, and the price of 50% caustic soda is expected to remain firm in the short term due to order support [4]. - Overall logic: Recently, some enterprises have faced difficulties in destocking, and the weekly inventory has increased month - on - month, putting pressure on caustic soda prices. However, the cost support below is strong, and there are still certain expectations for peak - season demand. Attention should be paid to the opportunity to go long on the caustic soda 2601 contract at low prices. The upper reference pressure level is 2,800 yuan/ton, and the lower support level is 2,500 yuan/ton [4]. 3. Summary by Catalog 3.1 Market Review - Spot market: The price of caustic soda in Shandong remained stable. The price of 32% ion - membrane caustic soda and 50% ion - membrane caustic soda in Shandong, the price of 98% flake caustic soda in the Northwest, and other products did not change compared with the previous period. The price of alumina in Shandong decreased by 50 yuan/ton, a decrease of 1.58%, and the price of battery - grade lithium hydroxide in China decreased by 400 yuan/ton, a decrease of 0.55% [9][18]. - Futures market: Relevant data on caustic soda futures prices, positions, and their comparison with other related products such as soda ash, alumina, and PVC are presented through charts, but no specific text analysis is provided [15]. 3.2 Market Analysis - Supply side: - Production and capacity utilization: In the week of 20250829 - 0904, the average capacity utilization rate of Chinese caustic soda sample enterprises with a capacity of 200,000 tons and above was 84.2%, a month - on - month increase of 1.8%. The loads in the Northwest, North China, and Central China increased, while the load in East China decreased. It is expected that the caustic soda capacity utilization rate will be around 83.8% and the weekly output will be around 825,000 tons [22]. - Enterprise maintenance: Multiple enterprises in different regions have maintenance plans, which will have an impact on production capacity [23]. - Downstream demand: - Alumina: The domestic alumina price continued to decline slightly, and the market trading atmosphere was weak. The short - term price is expected to remain stable and weak, with a price range of 3,000 - 3,200 yuan/ton [28]. - Viscose staple fiber: The capacity utilization rate of the viscose staple fiber industry in the week of 20250829 - 20250904 was 87.10%, a month - on - month increase of 1.08% [28]. - Inventory: As of 20250904, the factory inventory of fixed liquid caustic soda sample enterprises with a capacity of 200,000 tons and above in the country was 387,800 tons (wet tons), a month - on - month increase of 2.17% and a year - on - year increase of 35.17%. The inventory ratios in different regions showed different trends [31]. - Liquid chlorine: As of September 4, 2025, the price of liquid chlorine in Shandong decreased, with a weekly average price of - 326 yuan/ton, a month - on - month decrease of 15%. As of September 5, 2025, the PVC capacity utilization rate in China was 77.13%, a month - on - month increase of 1.11%, and it is expected to reach 80.95% this week [34]. - Chlor - alkali cost and profit: In the week of 20250829 - 20250904, the average weekly profit of Shandong chlor - alkali enterprises was 325 yuan/ton, a month - on - month decrease of 1.52%. The theoretical production cost of caustic soda remained stable, the price of caustic soda increased, and the weekly average price of liquid chlorine decreased significantly, resulting in an overall decline in chlor - alkali profits [35].

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints of the Report - On Friday, the market stopped falling and rebounded. In the afternoon, long - position funds became active. The three major indices showed a pattern of a bullish candlestick covering a bearish one, but the Science and Technology Innovation Board failed to recover the previous day's losses. The new energy sectors led the counter - attack, and the computing power concepts like optical modules also rebounded. From the index trend, the bullish candlestick covering a bearish one indicates that the market's bullish momentum still exists, and this adjustment period may be shorter than expected. However, sector rotation may occur, and whether the previous leading sectors can lead again is worth tracking [2]. - The four major indices collectively reached new highs, but the CSI 300 fell 0.81% for the week, the SSE 50 fell 1.15%, the CSI 500 fell 1.85%, and the CSI 1000 fell 2.59%. The average daily trading volume of the four major indices decreased compared to the previous week [2]. - The cumulative balance of margin trading purchases decreased by 16.619 billion yuan compared to the previous week, and the enthusiasm for margin trading continued to decline. The movement of large - scale funds can reflect their attitude towards stabilizing the market. If there is a net inflow in the future, it means the market trend is still intact. The continuous and significant decline of margin trading balance may be a signal that the adjustment is entering the right - hand side [2]. - Facing the callback, investors are advised not to be disturbed by short - term emotions. They should calmly consider which directions to choose after the decline. The "15th Five - Year Plan" draft proposal may be released at the end of October, and September is expected to be a "golden window" to capture industrial policy trends [2]. Summary by Directory 01 Market Review - **Weekly Market Review**: The Shanghai Composite Index fell 1.18% (-45.41 points), the SSE 50 fell 1.15% (-34.26 points), the CSI 300 fell 0.81% (-36.43 points), the STAR 50 fell 5.42% (-72.76 points), the CSI 500 fell 1.85% (-129.99 points), the Shenzhen Component Index fell 0.83% (-105.59 points), the ChiNext Index rose 2.35% (68.06 points), and the CSI 1000 fell 2.59% (-193.01 points). The trading volume of most indices decreased compared to the previous week [8]. - **Domestic Data (I)**: The valuation levels of the four major indices are presented, including PE and percentile data [9][10]. - **Domestic Data (II)**: Volatility increased, and the basis strengthened. Data on the basis and the volatility of the four major stock index options are provided [12][14]. - **Foreign Data**: The European and American markets showed stable trends, and the volatility was at a low level. Data on the volatility of the Dow Jones Industrial Average, FTSE 100, CAC 40, DAX, and Nikkei 225 are presented [17]. 02 Macro Analysis - **Domestic Macro (I)**: Various domestic macro - economic data are presented, including the cumulative year - on - year profit of state - owned industrial enterprises, the year - on - year growth rate of industrial added value, the year - on - year growth rate of total retail sales of consumer goods, the year - on - year growth rate of GDP at constant prices, the cumulative year - on - year growth rate of fixed - asset investment in manufacturing, and the cumulative year - on - year growth rate of real estate development investment in construction projects [23][24][25]. - **Domestic Macro (III)**: The PMI index of the manufacturing industry and the price index stabilized. Data on CPI (including food, non - food, and overall) and PMI (including manufacturing, non - manufacturing, and service industry) are provided [34][35][39]. - **Domestic High - Frequency Data (I)**: High - frequency domestic data such as rebar inventory, excavator sales volume, and crude steel output are presented [43][45][47]. - **Domestic High - Frequency Data (II)**: Data on real - estate - related high - frequency indicators are provided, including the cumulative year - on - year growth rate of housing construction area, new housing starts, real - estate development funds, and the sales area of commercial housing, as well as the weekly land transaction area of first - tier, second - tier, and third - tier cities [49][50][51]. - **Foreign Macro (1)**: Foreign macro - economic data are presented, including the initial value of new non - farm payrolls in the United States, inflation data in the eurozone and the United States, unemployment rate in the United States, and PMI data in the United States and the eurozone [57][58][60]. 03 Market Sentiment - **Funding Aspect**: The short - and long - term funding costs remained stable. Data on open - market operations (net money injection) and SHIBOR rates are provided [66][67]. - **Sentiment Aspect**: Domestic investors showed active buying interest. Data on the net buying amount of northbound funds, margin trading balance, public fund net value, share, and quantity, as well as the trading volume and turnover of the two markets are presented [70][71][73]. - **Important Market Information This Week**: - There are three market liquidity characteristics at home and abroad. ETF fund flows are significantly differentiated, the market may enter the last round of intensive subscription and redemption of active public funds, and overseas high - debt capital interest rates coexist with the central bank's passive interest - rate cut pressure, which reduces the pressure on Chinese manufacturing in global competition and increases the attractiveness of RMB assets [75]. - Next week, a series of important data such as Sino - US CPI will be released intensively. The US non - farm annual data may be significantly revised downward. The ECB will announce its interest - rate decision. The pricing of the iPhone 17 is highly concerned. The deadline for the submission of the written application for early elections in the Japanese Liberal Democratic Party is approaching, and the French government will hold a confidence vote on the budget issue [76].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not mentioned in the provided content 2. Core View of the Report - This week, the A - share market rose and then fell, with daily trading volume remaining above 2 trillion. The CSI 300 Index, CSI 1000 Index, and SSE 50 Index all had their own trends, and the corresponding index futures and options also showed various changes. For index options, it is recommended to go long on volatility when the underlying index rises and short on volatility when it falls, and pay attention to the strength - based arbitrage opportunities among the underlying indexes [2]. 3. Summary According to the Directory 3.1 CSI 300 Index Options (IO) - The CSI 300 Index rose and then fell, standing above the 5 - day moving average again, with the daily three - color K - line indicator remaining red; the weekly line closed in the negative, and the Wednesday three - color K - line indicator remained red [10][13]. - The IF futures' current - month contract became at a discount to the underlying, and the basis of the next - month contract at a discount to the current - month contract first widened and then narrowed [21][24]. - The IO option trading volume increased, and the open interest rebounded, exceeding the maximum value of the previous five months. The option trading volume PCR first rose and then fell, and the option open interest PCR decreased. The implied volatility first rose and then fell, and the strike price ranges of the maximum open interest of call and put options remained unchanged [27][30][33]. - The call and put options' maximum open - interest strike prices of the CSI 300 index options' 2509 contract are 4500 and 4250 respectively, and the option pain point is 4300 [15]. 3.2 CSI 1000 Index Options (MO) - The CSI 1000 Index's daily line closed below the 20 - day moving average, and the daily three - color K - line indicator turned green; the weekly line closed in the negative, found support at the 5 - week moving average, and the Wednesday three - color K - line indicator remained red [40][43]. - The IM futures' current - month contract's basis at a discount to the underlying narrowed, and the basis of the next - month contract at a discount to the current - month contract also narrowed [51][54]. - The MO option trading volume increased, and the open interest reached a record high since listing. The option trading volume PCR first rose and then fell, and the option open interest PCR dropped below 1. The implied volatility first rose and then fell, and the strike price ranges of the maximum open interest of call and put options narrowed [57][60][63]. - The call and put options' maximum open - interest strike prices of the CSI 1000 index options' 2509 contract are 7500 and 6800 respectively, and the option pain point is 7100 [45]. 3.3 SSE 50 Index Options (HO) - The SSE 50 Index's daily line rose and then fell, found support at the 20 - day moving average, and the daily three - color K - line indicator turned gray; the weekly line closed in the negative, and the Wednesday three - color K - line indicator remained red [71][74]. - The IH futures' current - month contract's basis at a discount to the underlying first widened and then narrowed, and the next - month contract became at a premium to the current - month contract [82][85]. - The HO option trading volume increased, and the open interest rebounded to reach the highest level this year. The option trading volume PCR first rose and then fell, and the option open interest PCR first rose and then fell. The implied volatility first rose and then fell, and the strike price ranges of the maximum open interest of call and put options narrowed [88][90][93]. - The call and put options' maximum open - interest strike prices of the SSE 50 index options' 2509 contract are 3000 and 2850 respectively, and the option pain point is 2900 [76].

策略周报——2025.09.08 | | | 研究所 0371-58620086 | | --- | --- | --- | | 品种 | 逻辑 | 策略建议 | | 期权 | 本周 A 股冲高回落，日成交额维持在 2 万亿以上。沪深 300 | 趋势投资者关注品种 | | | 指数冲高回落，又站上 5 日均线，日三彩 K 线指标维持红色 | 间的强弱套利机会。 | | | ；周线收阴，周三彩 K 线指标维持红色。IF 期货当月合约转 | 波动率投资者标的指 | | | 为贴水标的，次月合约贴水当月合约基差先扩后缩。IO 期权 | 数上涨时做多波动率 | | | 成交量放大，持仓量回升已超过前五个月最大值，期权成交 | ，下跌时做空波动率 | | | 量 PCR 先升后降，期权持仓量 PCR 下降，隐含波动率先升后 | 。 | | | 降，看涨、看跌期权最大持仓量行权价区间无变化。中证 | | | | 1000 指数日线收于 20 日均线下方，日三彩 K 线指标转为绿 | | | | 色；周线收阴，在 5 周均线获得支撑，周三彩 K 线指标维持 | | | | 红色。IM 期货当月合约贴水标的基差缩小，次月合 ...

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating The provided text does not mention the report industry investment rating. 2. Core Viewpoints - The A-share market showed strong performance on August 28, with over 2800 stocks rising and the trading volume exceeding 3 trillion yuan for two consecutive days. The market is in a bullish trend in the medium term, but short-term fluctuations are inevitable due to the accumulation of risks and the need to digest profit-taking chips. [2][3] - Different commodities have different market trends and investment suggestions. For example, aluminum prices may maintain high-level consolidation; coking coal and coke may fluctuate repeatedly; urea may continue to consolidate within a certain range; steel prices may continue to oscillate at the bottom; egg futures can be shorted on rebounds; live pig prices may maintain range-bound fluctuations; and cotton may be slightly bearish in the short term but bullish in the medium to long term. [3][4][5] 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Options - On August 28, the three major A-share indexes strengthened collectively. The trading volume of A-shares exceeded 3 trillion yuan for two consecutive days, reaching 3.0004 trillion yuan. Most industry sectors rose, with semiconductor, communication equipment, and other sectors leading the gains, while automobile service, real estate service, and brewing industries declined. [2] - The IF weighted index of CSI 300 stock index futures increased in volume and price, with the basis of the current-month contract widening and the basis of the next-month contract narrowing. The trading volume PCR and option holding volume PCR of two 300ETF options both increased, and the weighted implied volatility rose. [2] - The IH weighted index of SSE 50 stock index futures decreased in position and increased in volume. The current-month contract changed to a discount to the underlying, and the next-month contract changed to a premium to the current-month contract. The trading volume PCR and option holding volume PCR of CFFEX SSE 50 stock index options decreased, while those of Huaxia 50ETF increased, and the weighted implied volatility rose. [2] - The IM weighted index of CSI 1000 stock index futures increased in position and volume. The basis of the current-month contract and the next-month contract both widened, the trading volume PCR increased, the option trading volume PCR decreased but remained above 1.09, and the weighted implied volatility rose. The option MO holding volume reached a new high since listing. [2] - Trend investors are advised to focus on the strength and weakness arbitrage opportunities between varieties, and volatility investors are advised to go long on volatility when the underlying index rises and short on volatility when it falls. [2] Stock Index - On August 28, the three major A-share indexes closed higher. Concept sectors such as copper cable high-speed connection, CPO, lithography machine, and storage chips were active, while grain concept, animal vaccine, and weight-loss drug sectors performed poorly. The Shanghai Composite Index rose 1.14%, the Shenzhen Component Index rose 2.25%, and the ChiNext Index rose 3.82%. [3] - On Thursday, most European and American stock markets closed higher, with the Dow Jones and S&P 500 indexes hitting new closing highs. Technology stocks mostly rose, and the US GDP growth rate in the second quarter was revised up to 3.3%, exceeding expectations, which boosted market sentiment. [3] - The market showed a rebound and repair trend on Thursday. The short-term fluctuations of the market are due to the accumulation of risks after the rapid rise of the index and the need to digest profit-taking chips, but the overall strong pattern remains unchanged. [3] - It is recommended to reduce positions on rallies for previous profit-taking positions and use the 10-day moving average as the mid-term trend watershed. [3] Aluminum - The market continues to bet on the Fed's interest rate cut expectation in September. Fundamentally, due to the release of supply increments and the off-season of consumption, the expectation of inventory accumulation is still strong. Aluminum prices may maintain high-level consolidation in the short term, with a reference range of 20,000 - 21,000 yuan/ton. [3] Coking Coal and Coke - The weekly average daily output of raw coal was 188,600 tons, a decrease of 2,600 tons compared with the previous week, and the raw coal inventory was 472,600 tons, an increase of 1,000 tons. The average daily output of clean coal was 75,300 tons, a decrease of 1,800 tons, and the clean coal inventory was 283,600 tons, an increase of 8,000 tons. [4] - Due to stricter safety inspections in mines and the supply contraction of downstream coke enterprises and steel mills, the short-term raw material support still exists, and coking coal and coke prices may fluctuate repeatedly. [4] Urea - The domestic urea spot market price remained stable over the weekend, with the mainstream ex-factory quotation at around 1,670 - 1,680 yuan/ton. Recently, many urea enterprises have overhauled their equipment, resulting in a significant decrease in daily output, but the overall supply is still relatively sufficient. [4] - Affected by the weak downstream demand, the inventory of upstream urea enterprises continued to accumulate. The operating rate of compound fertilizer enterprises decreased slightly, but the downstream pick-up improved gradually. The UR2601 contract may continue to consolidate within the range of 1,700 - 1,820 yuan/ton, and the subsequent focus is on the Indian tender opening. [4] Steel (Rebar and Hot Rolled Coil) - The five major steel products continued to accumulate inventory in the off-season. Rebar production and demand both increased, and the apparent demand rebounded slightly faster. The total inventory increase slowed down, the factory inventory decreased, and the social inventory continued to increase, indicating an accelerated transfer from factory inventory to social inventory. Terminal procurement was relatively cautious due to the off-season. [4] - Hot-rolled coil production and demand both decreased slightly, and the total inventory continued to rise slightly. The overall inventory accumulation pressure was not large, with the factory inventory at a historical low and the social inventory lower than the same period last year. The spot market trading was weak over the weekend, and the quotation was partially reduced by 10 - 30 yuan/ton. The basis was at a high level, and the manufacturing PMI in August rebounded slightly by 0.1 to 49.4%. Steel prices may continue to oscillate at the bottom in the short term. [4] Eggs - The national egg spot price fell steadily last week and stabilized again over the weekend. The current spot price at the benchmark location is 2.6 yuan/jin, a weekly decline of 0.08 yuan/jin. After the callback in the north, the price tried to rise slightly but failed, and the high-price area in the south began to decline. The出库 of cold storage eggs suppressed the market, and the supply of large-sized eggs was short, while the supply of medium and small-sized eggs was relatively sufficient. The terminal's acceptance of the rapid rise in egg prices was limited, and the sales slowed down. It is expected that the spot price is unlikely to fall significantly further due to the support of Mid-Autumn Festival stocking. Egg futures can be shorted on rebounds. [4] Live Pigs - The live pig spot price remained stable last week, with the national average price at 14.00 yuan/kg. The overall supply is sufficient, and the demand is constantly recovering, so the price is stable. Although the存栏 of medium and large pigs has decreased, the actual supply is still sufficient. With the decrease of high-temperature weather, the demand has rebounded, and the acquisition enthusiasm of slaughtering enterprises has increased, which further supports the price. The futures market showed general performance, maintaining a volatile trend, and the current discount is slight, with limited room for a deep decline. The near-term contract reflects the reality of oversupply, while the far-term contract reflects the expectation of capacity reduction. Live pig prices may maintain range-bound fluctuations, with a weak near-term and a strong far-term, and it is advisable to conduct reverse arbitrage. [5] Cotton - In the previous trading session, ICE cotton rebounded significantly, with the December contract closing at 67.3 cents/pound, up 62 points, or 0.93%. Zhengzhou cotton rose sharply on Friday. Internationally, India extended the duty-free period for cotton imports until December 31, 2025, which boosted market sentiment. However, currently, US cotton exports to India only account for about 1.5% of its total exports, so the overall positive impact is limited. [5] - The main drivers of Zhengzhou cotton's rise are the rise of ICE cotton, the tight supply of cotton commercial inventory as of August 22, and the market's expectation of the start of orders during the "Golden September and Silver October" period. However, from the fundamental perspective, the cotton destocking speed and the operating rates of spinning and weaving mills have not improved significantly compared with the previous two weeks, and the increase in downstream cotton yarn prices is limited, indicating that the terminal demand is still weak. Overall, Zhengzhou cotton may be slightly bearish in the short term, with an expected decline next week, and the focus is on the range of 14,000 - 14,500 yuan/ton, but it may be bullish in the medium to long term. [5]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - China's economic prosperity generally continues to expand, with the official manufacturing PMI, non - manufacturing PMI, and composite PMI in August showing improvements [9]. - The real estate market remains under pressure, with the sales of TOP100 real - estate enterprises declining year - on - year [9]. - The RMB exchange rate against the US dollar has been strengthening recently, and the market is optimistic about its continued strength until the end of this year [11]. - In the futures market, different varieties have different trends and investment suggestions, such as some being recommended for short - term observation and others for cautious trading [13][19]. - The A - share market has a mid - term bullish structure, but there may be short - term fluctuations and adjustments [23][25]. 3. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Chemical Industry Futures - On September 1, 2025, among chemical futures, coke, 20 - number rubber, plastic, polypropylene PP, and methanol showed price increases, while natural rubber, PTA, PVC, asphalt, etc. showed price decreases [6]. 3.2 Macro - economic News - China's economic indicators in August showed positive trends, and some small and medium - sized banks have cut deposit rates [9]. - The sales of real - estate enterprises continued to decline, and the automobile inventory warning index was above the boom - bust line [9][10]. - The RMB exchange rate against the US dollar has been strengthening recently, mainly due to the weakening of the US dollar index and the narrowing of the Sino - US interest rate spread [11]. - There are international events such as the US Supreme Court's decision on Trump's policies and the negotiation between Japan and the US on trade and investment [10]. 3.3 Morning Meeting Views on Major Futures Varieties 3.3.1 Agricultural Products - Peanut futures are in a short - term bottom - shock situation, and it is recommended to wait and see, focusing on the progress of new peanut acquisitions [13]. - Sugar futures are at the lower end of the range, and it is recommended to wait and see, paying attention to support and resistance levels [13]. - Corn futures are in a state of intense multi - empty game, and it is recommended to wait and see, focusing on the listing rhythm of new grain and the breakthrough of the pressure level [13]. - Hog futures are in an interval - shock situation, with a near - weak and far - strong monthly spread, and it is recommended to conduct reverse arbitrage [13]. - Egg futures are expected to have limited further declines in the spot market, and it is recommended to continue short - selling on rebounds in the futures market [15]. - Cotton futures may be oscillating strongly in the medium - long term and are expected to decline slightly in the short term, and the range of 14000 - 14500 should be focused on [15]. - Log futures are recommended to operate in the range of 800 - 850, focusing on the improvement of real - estate funds and the expected reduction in New Zealand's supply [16]. - Pulp futures are recommended for cautious long - biased operations, paying attention to the upper pressure and lower support levels [16]. 3.3.2 Energy and Chemicals - Urea futures' UR2601 contract may continue to operate in the range of 1700 - 1820 yuan/ton, and the opening of the Indian tender should be focused on [19]. - Caustic soda futures' 2601 contract is recommended to be treated with a long - biased idea on dips [19]. - Coking coal and coke futures are expected to fluctuate repeatedly and operate in an oscillating manner [19]. 3.3.3 Industrial Metals - Copper futures are recommended to take a long - biased approach once the price breaks through the oscillating range upwards [19]. - Aluminum futures are expected to continue to operate at a high level [19]. - Alumina futures' 2601 contract is operating weakly, and factors such as bauxite should be focused on [21]. - Rebar and hot - rolled coil futures' prices are expected to continue to oscillate and find the bottom in the short term [21]. - Ferroalloy futures are expected to continue wide - range oscillations in the short term, and attention should be paid to capital control for hedging and caution for speculation [21]. - Lithium carbonate futures are recommended to wait and see, focusing on the policies of mines in Jiangxi, and if the support level is broken, it may test the 70000 - yuan mark [21]. 3.3.4 Options and Finance - In stock index options, trend investors should pay attention to the strength - weakness arbitrage opportunities between varieties, and volatility investors should go long on volatility when the underlying index rises and short on volatility when it falls [23]. - The A - share market has a mid - term bullish structure. Although there may be short - term fluctuations, the underlying logic of the market has not been falsified, and investors can reduce positions on rallies and use the 10 - day moving average as a mid - term trend watershed [24][25].