Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Ratings There is no information about the report industry investment ratings in the provided content. 2. Core Viewpoints - The market showed strong performance from August 4th - 8th, with the Shanghai Composite Index hitting a new high for the year. Despite potential short - term adjustments, confidence in hitting new highs within the year should be maintained [3]. - Different varieties have different price trends and investment suggestions. For example, aluminum prices may maintain high - level consolidation, while lithium carbonate prices may be volatile due to the uncertainty of mine production [3]. 3. Summary by Variety Options - The Shanghai Composite Index reached a new high this week, with daily trading volume above 1.5 trillion. Different index options have different performance in terms of K - line indicators, basis, trading volume, open interest, and implied volatility. Trend investors can focus on relevant varieties, and volatility investors can buy wide - straddles to bet on volatility [2]. Stock Index - From August 4th - 8th, the market was strong, with the Shanghai Composite Index rising 2.11% on the weekly K - line. Looking ahead to August 11th - 15th, economic data releases and mid - year report disclosures may affect market sentiment. Investment should focus on IF and IM, and look for low - buying opportunities in IC [3]. Aluminum - Macroeconomic factors such as domestic export growth, US tariff policies, and Fed personnel changes are at play. Fundamentally, supply increases and the off - season of consumption lead to a strong expectation of inventory accumulation. Aluminum prices may maintain high - level consolidation in the range of 20,000 - 21,000 yuan/ton [3]. Lithium Carbonate - Spot prices are 68,000 - 70,000 yuan/ton, and futures prices have fallen. Due to the uncertainty of the production status of the Jianxiawo lithium mine, price fluctuations are expected to intensify. If the mine shuts down, the price center may rise significantly. Investment strategy is to buy on dips [3]. Coking Coal and Coke - This week, coal production and inventory decreased. Supply disruptions are still expected, but downstream acceptance of high prices has declined. Coke has started the sixth round of price increases, and prices are expected to remain relatively strong and fluctuate at high levels [4]. Urea - The current daily production is high, and supply pressure is expected to increase in August. Demand from agricultural top - dressing has ended, and compound fertilizer production has inventory pressure. Futures prices may continue to fluctuate weakly, with support around 1,700 yuan/ton [4]. Rebar and Hot - Rolled Coil - The production of the five major steel products increased while demand decreased, and inventory growth slightly expanded. Steel prices are expected to have limited downward space and still have upward drivers [4]. Eggs - Last week, egg spot prices fell and then stabilized. This week, the strategy is to short on rebounds [5]. Pigs - Last week, pig spot prices fell. Supply is sufficient but demand is weak, and prices are expected to continue to decline in the short term. Futures show a pattern of near - term weakness and long - term strength, with a range - bound trend [5]. Sugar - Domestic and international sugar prices have declined. With the expected shutdown of some northern sugar refineries and potential shortages in Brazilian shipments and domestic arrivals, the 01 contract may repair some of the discount [5]. Cotton - Cotton prices have declined. In the short term, there may be a small technical rebound, with support at 13,350 yuan/ton. The market has a strong expectation of a bumper cotton harvest in 2025, and demand is under pressure [5][6].

晨会纪要 2025 第（144）期 发布日期：2025-08-08 | 中原期货研究咨询部 | 0371-58620081 | | --- | --- | | 0371-58620083 | | | 公司官方微信 | | 0371-58620081 0371-58620083 中原期货研究咨询部 公司官方微信 1 中原期货研究咨询部 | 化工 | 主力合约 | 2025/8/8 | 2025/8/7 | 涨跌 | 涨跌幅/% | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | | 8:00 | 15:00 | | | | | 焦煤 | 1,222.50 | 1,229.50 | -7.0 | -0.569 | | | 焦炭 | 1,642.50 | 1,667.50 | -25.0 | -1.499 | | | 天然橡胶 | 15,525.00 | 15,525.00 | 0 | 0 | | | 20号胶 | 12,360.00 | 12,350.00 | 10.0 | 0.081 | | | 塑料 | 7,309.00 | 7,297.00 | 12.0 | 0.164 ...

| 公司官方微信 | | --- | | 中原期货研究咨询部 0371-58620081 0371-58620083 | 1 中原期货研究咨询部 晨会纪要 2025 第（143）期 发布日期：2025-08-07 公司官方微信 中原期货研究咨询部 | 化工 | 主力合约 | 2025/8/7 | 2025/8/6 | 涨跌 | 涨跌幅/% | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | | 8:00 | 15:00 | | | | | 焦煤 | 1,223.50 | 1,221.00 | 2.50 | 0.205 | | | 焦炭 | 1,647.50 | 1,644.50 | 3.0 | 0.182 | | | 天然橡胶 | 15,430.00 | 15.495.00 | -65.0 | -0.419 | | | 20号胶 | 12,280.00 | 12,320.00 | -40.0 | -0.325 | | | 塑料 | 7,305.00 | 7,321.00 | -16.0 | -0.219 | | | 聚丙烯PP | 7,072.00 | 7,078.00 | ...

Report Summary 1. Industry Investment Rating No industry investment rating is provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints - The overall market shows a complex situation with different trends in various sectors. In the futures market, some commodities are experiencing price fluctuations, and the market sentiment is affected by multiple factors such as policies, supply - demand relationships, and international economic data [4][6][7]. - In the A - share market, the index is on a stable upward trend, and the market's attractiveness is increasing. However, further upward breakthrough may require new catalysts [17]. 3. Summary by Catalog 3.1 Chemical and Agricultural Futures Market - **Chemical Futures**: On August 6, 2025, in the chemical futures market, natural rubber and soda ash had significant price increases, with natural rubber rising 6.291% to 15,460.00 and soda ash rising 6.137% to 1,349.00. While crude oil, asphalt, and other varieties declined, with crude oil dropping 1.238% to 502.50 [4]. - **Agricultural Futures**: Among agricultural futures, rapeseed meal and yellow corn had price increases, with rapeseed meal rising 0.844% to 2,747.00 and yellow corn rising 0.445% to 2,259.00. Palm oil and other varieties declined, with palm oil dropping 0.750% to 8,996.00 [4]. 3.2 Macro - economic News - **Domestic Policies**: The State Council has introduced a series of policies, including gradually promoting free pre - school education, implementing personal and service industry loan interest - subsidy policies, and the China Real Estate Association providing services for small and medium - sized real estate enterprises. Seven departments including the central bank have jointly issued a guidance on financial support for new - type industrialization [6][7]. - **International News**: The US trade deficit in June decreased significantly, and the ISM non - manufacturing index in July declined. Trump criticized Powell, planned to raise tariffs on India, and may announce drug and chip tariffs. The US may ban banks from terminating customer services due to political stances or cryptocurrency business [6][7][8]. 3.3 Main Variety Morning Meeting Views - **Agricultural Products**: The peanut market is in a pattern of weak supply and demand, with prices expected to be strongly volatile but still on a downward trend. The oil market lacks driving forces and is expected to be weakly volatile. The sugar market is under supply pressure, and it is recommended to wait and see. The corn market is bearish in the short term. The pig market is expected to fluctuate within a range. The egg market suggests short - selling. The cotton market is weakly volatile [10][11]. - **Energy and Chemicals**: The urea price is rising, and it is necessary to pay attention to export and coal price changes. The caustic soda price is expected to be weakly adjusted. The coking coal and coke prices are strongly volatile. [11][12] - **Industrial Metals**: The copper price is under pressure, and the aluminum price is expected to continue to adjust at a high level. The alumina price is adjusting at a high level. The steel price is expected to fluctuate at the bottom in the short term and has upward momentum in the medium term. The ferroalloy market is affected by the overall commodity atmosphere, and it is recommended to operate cautiously. The lithium carbonate price is under pressure, and it is recommended to wait and see [12][13][14]. - **Options and Finance**: The A - share market rose on August 5, 2025. The index is on a stable upward trend, and it is recommended to pay attention to the low - buying opportunities of IF, IM, and IC. For options, trend investors can focus on the strength - weakness arbitrage opportunities between varieties, and volatility investors can sell wide - straddles to short - sell volatility [15][17].

Research Report Summary 1. Industry Investment Rating No industry investment rating is provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints - The overall market shows a complex situation with different trends in various sectors. In the agricultural products sector, most products are in a state of weak supply - demand balance or facing certain pressure. In the energy - chemical sector, prices are affected by factors such as production, demand, and international market conditions. The industrial metal sector is influenced by supply - demand relationships, macro - economic data, and policy factors. The financial market is affected by macro - economic data, policy expectations, and international market trends [6][9][14]. 3. Summary by Category 3.1 Chemicals - **Price Changes**: On August 5, 2025, compared with August 4, most chemical products' prices decreased. For example, the price of coking coal dropped from 1,141.00 to 1,126.00, a decrease of 15.0 with a decline rate of 1.315%. The price of asphalt decreased from 3,573.00 to 3,549.00, a decrease of 24.0 with a decline rate of 0.672%. Only natural rubber and 20 - number rubber prices increased slightly [6]. 3.2 Agricultural Products - **Price Changes**: Some agricultural products' prices increased, such as yellow soybean No.1, which rose from 4,117.00 to 4,133.00, an increase of 16.0 with an increase rate of 0.389%. However, some products' prices decreased, like white sugar, which dropped from 5,718.00 to 5,709.00, a decrease of 9.0 with a decline rate of 0.157% [6]. - **Market Analysis** - **Peanuts**: The peanut market price is basically stable, with a pattern of weak supply and demand. It is expected to have a strong - side shock but still maintain a downward trend [14]. - **Oils and Fats**: The total trading volume of oils and fats decreased by 57% compared with the previous trading day. The market lacks driving forces and is expected to have a weak - side shock [14]. - **Sugar**: The sugar futures showed a downward - shock trend. The Brazilian sugar production is about to enter the supply peak, and the domestic market needs to be vigilant against the pressure of processed sugar arrival in August [14]. - **Corn**: The corn futures weakened. The wheat substitution effect is prominent, and the import supply pressure increases. It is expected to have a weak - side shock [14]. - **Pigs**: The supply pressure of pigs still exists, and the demand improvement is not obvious. The market is expected to maintain an interval shock [15]. - **Eggs**: The egg spot market has differences between the north and the south. After the correction, the spot is expected to have limited further decline. The 08 - contract futures should avoid long positions and try short positions [15]. - **Cotton**: The ICE cotton continued to decline, and the Zhengzhou cotton rebounded slightly. The domestic cotton spot market has a weak foundation, and short - term long positions should be cautious [17]. 3.3 Macro - economic News - **Policy and Regulation**: The central bank, financial regulatory authorities, and the CSRC plan to further clarify the specific requirements for customer due diligence of financial institutions. Beijing has introduced 16 measures to promote the development of future industries, and Hainan has proposed 20 measures to develop future industries [9][10]. - **Economic Data**: In the first half of the year, China's service import and export volume was 38872.6 billion yuan, a year - on - year increase of 8%. It is expected that the new social financing in July will increase year - on - year. The preliminary estimate of the wholesale sales volume of new energy passenger vehicles in July is 118 million, a year - on - year increase of 25% [9][10]. - **International News**: Trump said he would significantly increase tariffs on India. The EU will suspend the implementation of tariff counter - measures against the US for six months. The probability of a US interest rate cut in September is high [10][11][24]. 3.4 Industrial Metals - **Copper and Aluminum**: The copper price continued to be under pressure, and the aluminum price is expected to continue the high - level adjustment due to factors such as supply increase and consumption off - season [21]. - **Alumina**: The alumina market is in an oversupply pattern, and the futures price is in a high - level adjustment, being vigilant against the impact of macro - emotions [21]. - **Steel Products**: The spot market of steel products has limited demand in the off - season. The prices of rebar and hot - rolled coils are affected by macro - emotions and raw material prices, and they are in a weak - side shock to find the bottom [21]. - **Ferroalloys**: The supply of ferrosilicon and ferromanganese continues to increase, and the demand is weak. The market is affected by macro - policy expectations, and it is recommended to adopt a range - shock strategy [22]. - **Lithium Carbonate**: The lithium carbonate market is under high - supply pressure. It is recommended to wait and see. If it effectively stands above 70,000 yuan, a small - position long position can be tried [23]. 3.5 Options and Finance - **Stock Index Futures and Options**: On August 4, the A - share market showed different trends. The trend investors can pay attention to the strength - weakness arbitrage opportunities among varieties, and the volatility investors can sell wide - straddle options to short volatility. The short - term adjustment of the stock index does not need to be worried, and the medium - term upward trend remains unchanged [23][24].

纯碱玻璃周报——2025.08.04 中原期货研究咨询部 作者：申文 执业证书编号：F03117458 投资咨询编号：Z0022654 shenwen_qh@ccnew.com 0371-58620081 01 周度观点汇总 3 1.1 纯碱周度观点——宏观扰动下商品氛围回落 品种 主要逻辑 策略建议 风险提示 纯碱 1.供应 装置开工率80.27%（环比-2.75%），氨碱法86.41%（环比-1.29%），联碱法67.86%（-4.40%)； 周产量69.98万吨（环比-2.40万吨），轻碱产量30.11万吨（-1.38万吨），重碱产量39.87万吨 （-1.02万吨）。 2.需求 纯碱表需76.86万吨（+0.38万吨），轻碱表需35.03万吨（-0.54万吨），重碱表需41.83万吨 （+0.92万吨）。 3.库存 纯碱企业库存179.58万吨（+1.22万吨），轻碱库存69.30万吨（-0.21万吨），重碱库存 110.28万吨（+1.43万吨）。 4.核心逻辑 本周纯碱现货价格稳中偏强运行，近期碱厂检修装置陆续复产，预计纯碱供应将有所回升。 需求端，纯碱表需环比小幅增加，前期待发订单支撑下碱厂库存 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating There is no information provided in the report regarding the industry investment rating. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - This week, the domestic urea spot market price showed a weak trend. In August, there will be both maintenance and restart of urea production facilities, and the daily output is expected to fluctuate around 19 - 20 million tons [4]. - The inventory of upstream urea enterprises increased compared to the previous period, while the port inventory decreased to 493,000 tons, indicating that the export performance was below expectations [4]. - The demand for agricultural top - dressing has ended. Although the production start - up of autumn compound fertilizers has increased, the finished product inventory still faces significant pressure [4]. - In the short term, affected by weak supply - demand and the overall correction in the commodity market, the urea futures price will continue to fluctuate at a low level. However, there is an expected improvement in autumn fertilizers and potential support from exports. The UR2509 contract should pay attention to the support around 1,680 - 1,700 yuan/ton, and subsequent attention should be paid to whether autumn fertilizers can bring a phased rebound opportunity [4]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Weekly Viewpoint Summary - **Supply**: Recently, there have been many maintenance facilities, and the supply has decreased significantly [4]. - **Demand**: The demand for agricultural top - dressing has ended, and attention should be paid to the production of autumn fertilizers [4]. - **Inventory**: The inventory of upstream urea enterprises increased from a decreasing trend, and the port inventory decreased [4]. - **Cost and Profit**: Coal prices are stable with a slight upward trend, and urea profits decreased compared to the previous period [4]. - **Basis and Spread**: The 9 - 1 spread is running weakly, and the 09 basis has limited changes [4]. 3.2 Variety Details Decomposition - **Market Price**: The domestic urea market price is running weakly, and international urea prices are showing mixed trends [6][10]. - **Supply**: Recently, there are many maintenance facilities, and the supply has decreased significantly. The weekly urea output is 1.3548 million tons (+0.01%), including 1.0451 million tons of coal - based urea output (-1.62%) and 309,700 tons of gas - based urea output (+5.92%), with an average daily output of 194,000 tons [16][20]. - **Inventory**: The urea enterprise inventory is 917,300 tons, a week - on - week increase of 58,500 tons. The port inventory is 493,000 tons (a week - on - week decrease of 50,000 tons). The mainstream pre - collection days of urea enterprises are 6.12 days (a week - on - week increase of 3.03%), and the number of days of orders to be delivered by enterprises has increased slightly [31]. - **Demand**: The operating rate of compound fertilizer enterprises is 38.68% (+5.10%), and the finished product inventory is 777,200 tons (a week - on - week increase of 35,100 tons). The operating rate of compound fertilizer enterprises has increased significantly, and the finished product inventory continues to accumulate. The operating rate of melamine is 63.50% (-1.70%), with a slight decline, and downstream procurement is based on rigid demand [34]. - **Raw Material**: Coal prices are stable with a slight upward trend [36]. - **Profit**: Urea profits decreased slightly compared to the previous period [42]. - **Spread Analysis**: The 9 - 1 spread is running weakly, and the 09 basis has limited changes [45].

| 品种 | 主要逻辑 | 策略建议 | 风险点 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | 供应：厂家利润修复，开工率回升带动产量增幅扩大。 | | | | | 需求：铁水产量高位，季节性小幅回调。 | | | | | 库存：厂库回升近6%。 | | | | | | 投机不宜追 | | | | 成本：周内原料持稳。 | 涨，下方支 | 反内卷政 | | | | 撑关注5500- | 策、中美 | | 硅铁 | 基差：盘面冲高回落，基差再度转正。 | | 贸易谈判 | | | 总结：上周以焦煤为主的前期涨幅较大商品，出现大幅减仓下跌行情，叠加政治 | 5600附近。 | 等政策不 | | | | 厂家择机卖 | | | | 局会议后政策表述温和等因素，工业品周内以回调为主，硅铁周内冲高回落，回 | 保。 | 确定性 | | | 吐前两周所有涨幅。基本面看，周产量继续回升，需求维持淡季偏弱格局，且预 | | | | | 期依旧偏差。近期宏观政策预期主导，商品波动风险加剧，合金也受商品大环境 | | | | | 影响，产业卖保思路不变，但注意资金控制，投机建议谨慎操作，以区间震荡思 | | | ...

美国新一轮关税落地，铜铝价格承压调整 ——铜铝周报2025.08.04 作者： 刘培洋 联系方式：0371-58620083 电子邮箱：liupy_qh@ccnew.com 执业证书编号：F0290318 交易咨询编号：Z0011155 本期观点 | 品种 | 主要逻辑 | 策略建议 | 风险提示 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | 1、宏观面：国内7月制造业PMI指数回落；美国新一轮关税政策落地， | 沪铜2509合约 | | | | 对市场形成一定压力。 | 上方参考压力 | 1、国内外宏 | | | 2、基本面：供应端因国产零单现货不足叠加票据波动限制流通，持 | 位80000元/吨 | 观政策及经 | | 铜 | 货商挺价意愿强烈维持市场紧张。需求端，铜价虽有回调但仍处于 | 一线，下方参 | 济数据变化； | | | 高位区间及淡季因素下需求表现疲软。 | 考支撑位 | 2、国外铜矿 | | | 3、整体逻辑：美国对铜加征关税落地，COMEX铜大幅回落修复价差， | 76000元/吨一 | 供应因素。 | | | 国内铜价短期也承压走弱，建议等待价格逐步企稳。 | 线。 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The domestic manufacturing PMI index declined in July, and the new round of US tariff policies put pressure on the market. The supply in the East China region remained stable this week with no planned device maintenance, resulting in sufficient supply. Non - aluminum demand did not improve significantly, and the off - season continued. The price of liquid caustic soda in Shandong Province may decline. Although caustic soda has strong downward support, market sentiment has cooled recently, with sharp price fluctuations. The near - month contracts will face certain warehouse receipt pressure. It is recommended to focus on the 9 - 11 reverse spread. The upper reference pressure level for the caustic soda 2509 contract is 2650 yuan/ton, and the lower support level is 2350 yuan/ton [4]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Market Review - **Spot Market**: The price of liquid caustic soda in Shandong showed a weak trend, and the basis of 32% liquid caustic soda in Shandong widened. From July 2024 to July 2025, data on the price of 32% and 50% ion - membrane caustic soda, flake caustic soda, and the price difference between different regions were presented. During the period from July 25th to July 31st, 2025, the prices of sea salt, 32% and 50% ion - membrane caustic soda, and 98% flake caustic soda remained unchanged, while the price of liquid chlorine increased by 42.86% to - 200 yuan/ton, the price of alumina increased by 0.63% to 3215 yuan/ton, the price of viscose staple fiber increased by 0.79% to 12700 yuan/ton, and the price of battery - grade lithium hydroxide increased by 1.46% to 69500 yuan/ton [9][12][18]. - **Futures Market**: From July 2024 to July 2025, data on the futures closing prices of caustic soda, soda ash, alumina, PVC, and the number of warehouse receipts were presented [15]. 3.2 Market Analysis - **Supply Side: Production and Operating Rate**: From January to July 2025, the average operating rate of sample caustic soda enterprises with a capacity of 200,000 tons or more was 83.9%, a decrease of 0.1% compared to the previous period. The operating rates in North China, South China, and East China increased, while those in the Northwest and Northeast decreased. Shandong's operating rate increased by 0.5% to 87.9%. It is expected that the operating rate will be around 83.6%, and the weekly production will be about 808,600 tons. Multiple enterprises in different regions have planned maintenance, such as Leshan Fuhua in Sichuan from August 1st to August 16th, and Shandong Hualu from August 8th with the restart date to be determined [23][24]. - **Downstream: Alumina**: As of July 31st, 2025, the built - in capacity of alumina in China was 114.8 million tons, and the operating capacity was 94.8 million tons. The supply of alumina increased, with a significant increase in the north and tight supply in the south due to roasting furnace maintenance [27]. - **Inventory**: As of July 31st, 2025, the factory inventory of fixed liquid caustic soda sample enterprises with a capacity of 200,000 tons or more was 424,200 wet tons, a month - on - month increase of 3.87% and a year - on - year increase of 10.9%. The storage capacity ratio decreased by 0.37% compared to the previous period. The inventory trends varied in different regions, with an upward trend in North China, a decline in South China and Central China, an increase in East China and Southwest China, and a decrease in the Northwest [33]. - **Liquid Chlorine**: As of July 31st, 2025, the average weekly price of liquid chlorine in Shandong increased by 30.36% to - 279 yuan/ton. As of August 1st, 2025, the operating rate of PVC in China was 76.84%, an increase of 0.05% compared to the previous period, and it is expected to reach 78.39% this week. The average weekly profit of chlor - alkali enterprises in Shandong was 233 yuan/ton, a month - on - month increase of 71.02% [37][38].