1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Views of the Report - The report presents a comprehensive analysis of various industries including chemicals, agriculture, energy, non - ferrous metals, and financial options. It provides price data, fundamental analysis, and trading strategies for different commodities and financial instruments. For the stock market, it suggests considering non - silver large finance, non - ferrous metals, and technology growth sectors for investment [10][14][17]. 3. Summary According to Related Catalogs 3.1 Chemicals - On January 8, 2026, among domestic chemical products, prices of some products like coking coal, coke, and plastic increased, while others such as natural rubber, 20 - number rubber, and PTA decreased. For example, coking coal rose from 1,164.00 to 1,215.00 with a 4.381% increase, and natural rubber dropped from 1,6180.00 to 16,135.00 with a - 0.278% decrease [4]. 3.2 Agriculture - **Sugar**: On January 7, the Zhengzhou sugar futures price continued its low - level rebound. With supply pressure from Brazil and India's potential over - production, but cost support in China, sugar prices are expected to fluctuate between 5200 - 5400 yuan. A strategy of high - selling and low - buying in this range is recommended [10]. - **Corn**: On January 7, corn futures prices broke through the previous trading range. With supply pressure and demand support coexisting, the short - term trend is strong, and investors can consider buying on dips, with support at 2230 yuan [10]. - **Peanuts**: On January 7, peanut futures prices oscillated narrowly. The market shows a pattern of weak supply and demand, and it is recommended to wait and see or conduct range trading [10]. - **Eggs**: The current egg price increase is mainly driven by sentiment and short - term stocking. It is expected to continue rising in the short - term but at a slower pace, and then gradually stabilize. The futures market is oscillating strongly, and the inter - month reverse spread should be held [10]. - **Cotton**: On January 7, cotton futures prices rose significantly. With strengthened supply reduction expectations and improved demand, the market is running strongly, but investors need to beware of short - term corrections, with support at 14800 - 14900 yuan/ton [10]. 3.3 Energy and Chemicals - **Caustic Soda**: The short - term spot market for caustic soda is relatively stable, but the overall supply is in excess. The price is expected to weaken steadily, and the impact of market sentiment changes should be noted [11]. - **Coking Coal and Coke**: The port trade enterprise quotes for coking coal have risen, but the transaction volume is average. Coke's downward price expectation has decreased. The short - term trend is oscillating strongly [11]. - **Log**: On January 7, log futures prices broke through the previous pressure level. With a pattern of both supply and demand increasing, investors can consider buying on dips after the price correction, with support at 780 [12]. - **Pulp**: On January 7, pulp futures prices showed a high - level decline. With strong supply - side cost support and weak demand, the price is supported by cost but limited by demand. It is recommended to wait and see at the 5600 - yuan pressure level [12]. - **Double - offset Paper**: On January 7, double - offset paper futures prices oscillated downward. The market maintains a weak supply - demand balance. It is recommended to conduct range trading, with support at 4100 yuan and pressure at 4400 yuan [12]. 3.4 Non - ferrous Metals - **Copper and Aluminum**: On January 7, copper prices were boosted by expectations of interest rate cuts and supply concerns. Aluminum prices are expected to be supported by policies in the long - term. However, on Wednesday, the prices of copper and aluminum showed a high - level decline, and investors need to beware of macro risks [13][14]. - **Alumina**: The supply of alumina is in excess, and the price rebound is driven by market sentiment. It is not advisable to chase the high price [14]. - **Rebar and Hot - rolled Coil**: Rebar and hot - rolled coil prices rose at night. The spot market trading improved, and the prices are expected to oscillate strongly in the short - term, but the upward trend may slow down [14]. - **Ferroalloys**: On Wednesday, ferroalloys followed the upward trend of coking coal and coke. With the improvement of the market atmosphere, they are expected to be strong in the short - term, and industrial selling hedging can wait and see [14]. - **Lithium Carbonate**: On January 7, lithium carbonate futures prices fluctuated strongly. With potential supply increase and demand turning points, investors need to beware of high - level corrections and should be cautious when chasing the high price [14][16]. 3.5 Option Finance - **Stock Index Futures**: On January 7, the three major A - share indexes rose slightly, but the stock index futures showed a mixed performance. For investors, trend investors can focus on the strength - weakness arbitrage opportunities between varieties, and volatility investors can sell straddles to short volatility. The stock market may face profit - taking pressure in the short - term [16]. - **Investment Directions**: It is recommended to consider non - silver large finance, non - ferrous metals, and technology growth sectors such as storage chips, commercial aerospace, and AI applications. For ordinary investors, it is advisable to allocate a certain amount of long - term stock index futures contracts or broad - based ETFs, and then choose some industry ETFs or individual stocks to obtain excess returns [17][18].

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The precious metals market experienced a significant decline on Monday, with silver prices first surging and then plummeting, dragging down other precious metals. The domestic precious metals market also saw sharp drops [9]. - China will be the first economy to pay interest on central bank digital currency, and the new - generation digital RMB system will be launched on January 1, 2026 [9]. - The Chinese People's Liberation Army Eastern Theater Command organized military exercises, and the State Council Tariff Commission announced the 2026 tariff adjustment plan [10]. - The market regulatory总局 deployed key tasks for 2026 and introduced new regulations on food production supervision [11]. - In the futures market, different varieties showed various trends. Some agricultural products and energy - chemical products had price fluctuations, and the stock index futures and options market also had its own characteristics [6][13][18]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 1. Chemical Industry - On December 30, 2025, among chemical products, the prices of coking coal, coke, asphalt, methanol, etc. rose, while the prices of natural rubber, 20 - number rubber, etc. fell. For example, coking coal rose 20.50 to 1,108.50, with a 1.884% increase; natural rubber fell 65.0 to 15,600.00, with a - 0.415% decrease [6]. 2. Agricultural Products - On December 29, 2025, the prices of some agricultural products showed different trends. Sugar prices were in a low - level range, with cost support but limited upside due to supply pressure. Corn prices rebounded, and peanuts were under pressure below 8000 yuan. The pig market showed signs of stabilization, and the egg market had a strong price - increase expectation. Cotton prices had a short - term correction after rising, but the fundamentals remained strong [13]. 3. Energy - Chemical Products - For caustic soda, the market is expected to continue its weak trend due to supply - demand contradictions. Coking coal and coke markets are in a weak and volatile state. Log prices are in a narrow - range shock, and pulp prices have a greater downward risk. Double - offset paper prices have broken through the previous resistance level, and copper and aluminum prices continue to run at a high level. Alumina is in an oversupply situation, and steel prices are in a range - bound state. Ferroalloys are currently treated with a bullish short - term view, and lithium carbonate prices have reversed their previous upward trend [14][15][16]. 4. Option Finance - On December 29, 2025, the three major A - share indexes showed different trends, with more stocks falling than rising. The trading volume exceeded 2 trillion for two consecutive days. The stock index futures and options market had different performance in terms of positions, spreads, and implied volatility. The short - term market may fluctuate, and investors are advised to pay attention to the trading rhythm and moderately increase positions on dips [18][19][20].

Report Title - The report is titled "Year-End Expectation Improvement, Alloy Continues to Rebound - Ferroalloy Weekly Report 20251229" [1] Report Analyst Information - The analyst is Peng Bohan from the Research and Consulting Department, with contact information: phone number 0371 - 58630083, email pengbh_qh@ccnew.com, professional certificate number F3076814, and investment consulting number Z0016415 [2] Core Views Silicon Iron - The main logic includes supply with a narrowing decline in production due to a rebound in the futures market; demand with a halt in the decline and a rebound in finished product output; inventory with a reduction in factory inventory; cost with a slight decline in semi - coke; and a weakening basis due to the futures market rebound. Recently, the continuous strength of precious metals and non - ferrous metals has improved the commodity sentiment. The alloy price has digested its weak supply - demand situation at a low level. With the New Year's steel procurement and winter storage expectations, it rebounded unexpectedly last week following the black series. It should be treated with a bullish view in the short term, but the industry is advised to conduct high - level hedging operations [4] Manganese Silicon - The main logic involves supply with a decline in production; demand with a narrowing decline in finished product output; inventory with continuous pressure on factory inventory; cost with firm manganese ore prices; and a repair of the futures discount. Similar to silicon iron, it also rebounded unexpectedly last week. It should be treated with a bullish view in the short term, and the industry is also advised to conduct high - level hedging operations [21] Summary by Related Catalogs Silicon Iron Supply - The weekly output of 136 independent silicon iron enterprises was 9.85 tons (down 1.3% week - on - week and 9.5% year - on - year). The output in November 2025 was 47.11 tons (down 6.78% month - on - month and 7.71% year - on - year) [6] Demand - The consumption of silicon iron in five major steel products was 1.8 tons (up 0.4% week - on - week and down 8.3% year - on - year). The weekly output of five major steel products was 796.8 tons (down 0.1% week - on - week and 5.5% year - on - year) [9] Inventory - The enterprise inventory was 6.36 tons (down 2.4% week - on - week and 17.3% year - on - year). The steel mill inventory days in December were 15.4 days (down 0.39 days month - on - month and up 0.39 days year - on - year) [11] Cost - The prices of raw materials such as electricity, semi - coke, anode, and oxidized iron scale were mostly stable, with a 3.75% decline in semi - coke in some regions. The silicon iron cost in Qinghai, Ningxia, and Inner Mongolia decreased by about 0.5%, and the profit increased by about 9 - 13% [14] Futures - Spot Relationship - The number of silicon iron warehouse receipts was 11,882 (down 897 week - on - week and up 3,252 year - on - year). The basis of the 03 contract in Ningxia was - 72 yuan/ton, up 18 yuan/ton week - on - week [17] Contract Position and Precipitated Funds - The document provides historical data on total position, position of different contracts, and precipitated funds of silicon iron, but no specific latest data summaries are given other than the above - mentioned warehouse receipt and basis information [19] Manganese Silicon Supply - The weekly output of 121 independent silicon manganese enterprises was 19.25 tons (up 2.3% week - on - week and down 3.8% year - on - year). The national silicon manganese output in November was 84.88 tons (down 7.3% month - on - month and up 3.1% year - on - year) [24] Demand - The weekly consumption of silicon manganese was 11.26 tons (up 0.22% week - on - week and down 8% year - on - year). The weekly output of five major steel products was 796.8 tons (down 0.1% week - on - week and 5.5% year - on - year) [26] Inventory - The enterprise sample inventory was 38.6 tons (up 0.4% week - on - week and 200% year - on - year). The steel mill inventory days in December were 15.52 days (down 0.3 days month - on - month and 0.3 days year - on - year) [29] Cost - The prices of electricity were stable. The prices of some manganese ores increased slightly, and the price of chemical coke in Inner Mongolia decreased by 4.5%. The silicon manganese cost in different regions decreased by about 0.3 - 0.4%, and the profit increased by about 9 - 17% [36] Futures - Spot Relationship - The number of silicon manganese warehouse receipts was 23,277 (down 374 week - on - week and 39,257 year - on - year). The 03 basis in Inner Mongolia was 100 yuan/ton, up 18 yuan/ton week - on - week [31] Contract Position and Precipitated Funds - The document provides historical data on total position, position of different contracts, and precipitated funds of silicon manganese, but no specific latest data summaries are given other than the above - mentioned warehouse receipt and basis information [38]

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the report Core Viewpoints - In 2025, the A-share market will end the year, with 528 double - digit stocks, four times more than in 2024. The top - performing stocks are either AI concept stocks or merger concept stocks, and most of the high - performing stocks are small and medium - cap stocks. The total market value of the A - share market increased by nearly 25% from the beginning to the end of the year. The four major indices continued to rise, and the trading volume decreased slightly. The balance of margin trading increased, and the RMB exchange rate against the US dollar rose above the 7.0 mark. The market is in a slow - bull trend, and investors should not chase the rise but moderately increase their positions on opportunities [2] Summary by Directory 01. Market Review - **Weekly Market Review**: The Shanghai Composite Index rose 1.88%, the Shanghai 50 rose 1.37%, the CSI 300 rose 1.95%, the STAR 50 rose 2.85%, the CSI 500 rose 4.03%, the Shenzhen Component Index rose 3.53%, the ChiNext Index rose 3.90%, and the CSI 1000 rose 3.76%. The trading volume of the four major indices decreased moderately compared with the previous week [8] - **Domestic Data**: The valuation levels of the four major indices are presented. Volatility declined and basis remained stable for the four major stock index options. The overseas European and American indices strengthened, and their volatility declined [11][14][19] 02. Macroeconomic Analysis - **Domestic Macroeconomy**: GDP growth, the profit growth of state - owned industrial enterprises, social consumer goods retail, industrial added - value, fixed - asset investment, real estate development investment, and other data are shown. The manufacturing PMI index stabilized, and price indices rebounded. High - frequency data such as excavator sales, steel production, and real - estate - related data are also presented [24][39][44] - **Overseas Macroeconomy**: Data on the US non - farm payrolls, unemployment rate, inflation, and manufacturing PMI, as well as the eurozone's inflation and manufacturing PMI, are provided [55][59][62] 03. Market Sentiment - **Funding Aspect**: The short - and long - term funding costs remained stable. The net currency injection from open - market operations is shown. The SHIBOR interest rates are presented [65][66] - **Sentiment Aspect**: The buying interest of domestic funds stabilized and rebounded. The margin trading balance, trading volume and turnover of the two markets, and public - fund - related data are shown [68][70] This Week's Important Market Information - The National Finance Work Conference was held from December 27th to 28th, summarizing the 2025 finance work and arranging the key tasks for 2026. During the New Year's Day holiday, multiple markets will be closed. Key events include the release of Sino - US PMI data, the Fed's meeting minutes, and possible changes in leadership. Some companies are about to be listed, and there is a "price - hike wave" in the industrial sector [72][74]

Report Summary 1. Investment Rating No investment rating for the industry is provided in the report. 2. Core View The current market is in a unilateral upward trend driven by sentiment and funds. The core contradiction lies in the huge divergence between the futures market's optimistic expectations for supply and the real - world pressures in the spot market (high costs, weak price - following ability, and accumulating warehouse receipts). The market is expected to enter a period of high - level violent fluctuations under the influence of sentiment and regulatory pressure in the next 1 - 2 weeks, and there is a need to be vigilant about the risk of a rapid correction [2]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Lithium Salt Market Introduction - **Price Changes**: The battery - grade lithium carbonate spot price rose 16.89% to 120,400 yuan/ton this week. The main futures contract soared 17.16% to 130,520 yuan/ton. The prices of other lithium salts such as lithium hydroxide also increased. For example, the price of lithium hydroxide (electric carbon - coarse particles) rose 15.19% to 102,400 yuan/ton [2][4]. - **Premium and Discount Changes**: The premium and discount of various raw materials and enterprises decreased. For example, the premium and discount of raw materials like辉石料 decreased by 250 yuan, and that of enterprises like 赣锋锂 decreased by 200 - 300 yuan [7]. 3.2 Lithium Salt Fundamental Analysis - **Supply**: The capacity utilization rate of lithium carbonate remained at a high level of 83.52%. There is a structural contradiction between high domestic production and the expected seasonal production reduction in salt lakes. The report also details the production of lithium carbonate and lithium hydroxide in China, including production in different regions and from different raw material sources [2]. - **Demand**: Cathode material manufacturers have limited acceptance of high prices and are cautious in purchasing. There is a contradiction between structural support and price suppression in the demand side [2]. - **Import and Export**: The report does not provide relevant data on lithium carbonate imports and exports. The transportation costs of lithium ore from South Africa, Zimbabwe, Nigeria and other countries remained unchanged this week [2][27]. - **Inventory**: The exchange warehouse receipts increased by 15.15% to 17,861 lots this week, indicating that the supply pressure in the spot market is being transmitted to the futures market [2][40]. - **Cost and Profit**: The raw material cost has risen rapidly. The production cost of externally purchased lithium concentrate increased 18.07% to 129,875 yuan/ton, and the production profit was - 9,475.3 yuan/ton, with most production capacities still in a loss state [2]. 3.3 Lithium - Battery Fundamental Analysis The report also involves the lithium - battery market, including the market conditions, supply, demand, import and export, cost - profit, and recycling of cathode materials, electrolytes, and new energy vehicles. However, specific data and analysis details are not fully presented in the provided content.

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content 2. Core View of the Report - The price of white sugar is expected to oscillate within the range formed by domestic production cost ($5400/ton) and import cost line (about $5200/ton) in the next 1 - 2 weeks, with a slightly stronger trend but limited rebound space. The core contradiction lies in the game between the high - supply pressure brought by the new domestic sugar listing and the strong support formed by the import cost line and domestic production cost. Although the price broke through the oscillation range driven by short - covering and cost support during the week, the sharp increase in warehouse receipts and inventory and the strong bearish sentiment restricted the upside space, and it is expected to oscillate below the cost line in the short term [3] 3. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs 3.1. Market Review 3.1.1. Weekly Review - Futures: The closing price of the No. 11 sugar continuous contract rose 2.36% from 14.82 to 15.17, and the closing price of the Zhengzhou sugar main contract rose 3.87% from 5088 to 5285 - Spot: The current prices of Nanning, Liuzhou, and Kunming increased by 1.91%, 1.91%, and 0.39% respectively, while the current price of Rizhao Lingyunhai remained unchanged - Basis: The basis between Liuzhou sugar and the main contract narrowed by 68.31% from 142 to 45 - Warehouse Receipts: The number of warehouse receipts increased by 39.52% from 3611 to 5038, the effective forecast decreased by 5.91% from 1490 to 1402, and the total of warehouse receipts + effective forecast increased by 26.25% from 5101 to 6440 - Market Sentiment: The bullish ratio of Zhengzhou sugar increased by 15 percentage points to 25%, the bearish ratio decreased by 15 percentage points to 55%, and the neutral ratio remained unchanged at 20% [5] 3.1.2. Domestic Futures and Spot - Not elaborated in the provided content 3.1.3. Raw Sugar Futures - Not elaborated in the provided content 3.2. Fundamental Analysis 3.2.1. China's Sugar Production and Sales - Not elaborated in the provided content 3.2.2. Production and Sales of Sugarcane Sugar in Major Domestic Producing Areas - Not elaborated in the provided content 3.2.3. Production and Sales of Beet Sugar in Major Domestic Producing Areas - Not elaborated in the provided content 3.2.4. China's White Sugar Industrial Inventory - Not elaborated in the provided content 3.2.5. China's Sugar Imports and Exports - Not elaborated in the provided content 3.2.6. Main Sugar Importing Countries of China - Not elaborated in the provided content 3.2.7. China's Sugar Import Cost and Profit - For Brazil, the in - quota processing cost increased by 3.79% to 4052, the out - of - quota processing cost increased by 3.88% to 5169, the in - quota import profit decreased by 6.93% to 1732, the out - of - quota import profit decreased by 22.08% to 614, the premium increased by 33.33% to 0.04, and the shipping cost decreased by 6.35% to 33.03 - For Thailand, the in - quota processing cost increased by 4.28% to 4094, the out - of - quota processing cost increased by 4.38% to 5224, the in - quota import profit decreased by 8.10% to 1690, the out - of - quota import profit decreased by 26.45% to 559, the premium remained unchanged at 0.89, and the shipping cost remained unchanged at 18 [30] 3.3. International Market Fundamentals 3.3.1. Available Sugar Quantity in Brazil - Not elaborated in the provided content 3.3.2. Sugarcane Crushing Volume in Brazil - Not elaborated in the provided content 3.3.3. Sugar Production in Brazil - Not elaborated in the provided content 3.3.4. Ethanol Production in Brazil - Not elaborated in the provided content 3.3.5. Sugar Imports and Exports in Brazil - Not elaborated in the provided content 3.3.6. International Raw Sugar Premium and Shipping Cost - Not elaborated in the provided content

Report Title - Market Game Intensifies, Copper Price Reaches 100,000 - Copper and Aluminum Weekly Report 2025.12.29 [1] Report Author - Liu Peiyang [2] Report Core Views Copper - Macro: The market continues to trade on the expectation of the Fed's interest rate cut next year [3]. - Fundamental: Global copper inventories are shifting to the US market, and there is still an expectation of supply tightness. High - priced copper suppresses short - term demand, but long - term demand from emerging fields like AI may be a breakout point [3]. - Overall: The medium - term bullish logic for copper prices remains unchanged, with short - term attention on macro sentiment and capital flow disturbances [3]. Electrolytic Aluminum - Macro: The market continues to trade on the expectation of the Fed's interest rate cut next year [5]. - Fundamental: The domestic electrolytic aluminum operating capacity is 4.439 million tons with a slight increase. December is the traditional off - season, but consumption in industries like automotive, power, and electronics is resilient, and the aluminum ingot social inventory has not entered a continuous accumulation phase [5]. - Overall: With little change in fundamentals and the market trading on the Fed's rate - cut expectation, aluminum prices may remain high [5]. Alumina - Macro: The market continues to trade on the expectation of the Fed's interest rate cut next year [6]. - Fundamental: As of December 25, the national metallurgical alumina installed capacity is 110.32 million tons/year, and the operating capacity is 88.085 million tons/year with a flat weekly operating rate of 79.85%. Alumina plants are continuously accumulating inventory [6]. - Overall: The alumina market remains in an oversupply situation, but an article from the National Development and Reform Commission boosts market sentiment, and the rebound situation should be monitored [6]. Report Recommendations Copper - For the SHFE Copper 2602 contract, the upper reference resistance level is 105,000 yuan/ton, and the lower reference support level is 95,000 yuan/ton [3]. Electrolytic Aluminum - For the SHFE Aluminum 2602 contract, the upper reference resistance level is 22,800 yuan/ton, and the lower reference support level is 21,600 yuan/ton [5]. Alumina - For the Alumina 2605 contract, the upper reference resistance level is 2,900 yuan/ton, and the lower reference support level is 2,600 yuan/ton [6]. Summary by Directory 01 Market Review Weekly Market Performance - Provided the week - on - week cumulative price change statistics for various metals from December 22 - 26 [11]. Weekly News - The National Development and Reform Commission published an article on promoting the optimization and upgrading of traditional industries, emphasizing management and layout for resource - constrained industries like alumina and copper smelting [12]. - The China Copper Industry Joint Procurement Group (CSPT) stopped setting a guidance price for copper concentrate processing fees in Q1 2026, reflecting a new stage in the bargaining power game between domestic smelters and miners [12]. - Jiangxi Copper announced an offer to acquire SolGold plc, valuing the target company at about £867 million [12]. - Gree Electric stated it has no immediate plan to replace copper with aluminum in air - conditioners due to performance differences [12]. - The Shanghai Futures Exchange adjusted the approved storage capacities of several alumina delivery warehouses and added a new storage point [12]. 02 Macro Analysis Domestic Market - From January to November, the total profit of industrial enterprises above designated size in China was 6.62686 trillion yuan, a year - on - year increase of 0.1%. In November, the profit of these enterprises decreased by 13.1% year - on - year [14]. Overseas Market - The initial estimate of the US real GDP annualized quarterly growth rate in Q3 2025 was 4.3%, significantly higher than the expected 3.3% and the previous 3.8%. After the GDP data release, the market's expectation of the Fed's interest rate cut slightly decreased [16]. 03 Non - ferrous Market Analysis Copper - **Spot Market**: Provided data on copper premiums, refined - scrap copper price differences, and other indicators [21]. - **Futures Market**: Presented the position data of SHFE copper futures, options, and international copper futures [24]. - **Overseas Market**: Analyzed the price differences between US and LME copper, LME copper premiums, and the relationship with the US dollar index [27]. - **Market Inventory**: Showed the inventory data of SHFE copper, Shanghai bonded area copper, LME copper, and COMEX copper [30]. - **Downstream Consumption**: As of December 25, the SMM national mainstream copper inventory increased by 14.96% week - on - week, and the domestic major refined copper rod enterprises' operating rate was 60.73%, with a week - on - week decrease of 2.34 percentage points [34]. Aluminum - **Domestic Market**: Provided data on A00 aluminum ingot premiums, aluminum alloy price differences, and social inventories of aluminum rods and electrolytic aluminum [36]. - **Futures Market**: Presented the position data of aluminum futures, options, and alumina futures and options [39]. - **Overseas Market**: Analyzed LME aluminum premiums, the relationship with the US dollar index, and LME aluminum total inventory [42]. - **Downstream Operating Rate**: As of December 25, the operating rate of domestic aluminum downstream processing leading enterprises was 60.8%, a week - on - week decrease of 0.7 percentage points [44]. - **Recycled Aluminum Alloy**: As of December 26, the SMM ADC12 price rose by 250 yuan/ton week - on - week to a new high for the year [48]. - **Cost and Profit**: Analyzed the cost and profit of electrolytic aluminum and its relationship with raw material prices [51]. Alumina - **Spot Market**: Provided data on alumina prices in different regions, the average spot price index, and raw material prices [54]. - **Futures Market**: Presented the relationship between alumina inventory futures, futures closing prices, and the prices of related products [57]. - **Market Supply and Demand**: As of December 25, the alumina supply was stable, and the demand slightly increased due to the new production capacity release of electrolytic aluminum enterprises in Xinjiang and Inner Mongolia [60]. - **Cost and Profit**: As of December 25, the domestic alumina industry cost was 2,940.91 yuan/ton, and the average industry profit was - 227.82 yuan/ton [61].

Report Title - "No obvious negative factors, short - term high - level shock - Cotton Weekly Report 20251229" [1] Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Core View - The report believes that the cotton market is expected to be volatile and bullish. International cotton prices briefly pulled back due to limited improvement in export data at the beginning of the week but then rebounded driven by improved US cotton contracts and shipment data, as well as the strength of the peripheral financial and grain markets. In the domestic market, Zhengzhou cotton continued its strong upward trend, mainly driven by policy expectations. The market rumor of a potential reduction in Xinjiang's cotton planting area next year and the approaching evaluation window of the target price subsidy policy have led to strong expectations of future supply contraction. Meanwhile, the overall production and sales in the textile downstream are fair, and the slight increase in cotton yarn prices has provided some support to the market. Key attention should be paid to policies and demand - side new market information [3] Summary by Directory 1. Market Review US Cotton Weekly Market Review - ICE cotton was reported at 63.36 - 64.81 cents per pound, with the Friday closing price at 64.49, a week - on - week decrease of 1.2%. As of December 12, the number of unpriced contracts of sellers on the ON - CALL 2603 contract decreased by 1039 to 21369, a decrease of 20,000 tons compared to the previous week. The total number of unpriced contracts of sellers in the 25/26 season decreased by 1343 to 38677, equivalent to 880,000 tons, a decrease of 30,000 tons compared to the previous week. The total number of unpriced contracts of ICE sellers decreased to 48505, equivalent to 1.1 million tons, a decrease of 1188 compared to the previous week, or 30,000 tons [9] Zhengzhou Cotton Weekly Market Review - It was reported at 14040 - 14700 yuan per ton, with the Friday closing price at 14535 yuan per ton, a week - on - week increase of 120 yuan. As of December 19, the registered warehouse receipts of No. 1 cotton were 3870, and the forecast warehouse receipts were 3852, totaling 7722, equivalent to 324,324 tons [10] Domestic Cotton Spot Market - This week, domestic cotton futures and spot prices rose significantly. The spot fixed - price transactions of cotton were active, mainly purchased by traders. The spot fixed - price of cotton gradually increased with the rise of Zhengzhou cotton and active trading. The basis of spot sales changed little, with local rigid - demand transactions, and many transactions were light. As of Friday, the fixed - price quotes of machine - picked cotton of grades 31 - 41/double 29/impurity within 3 in the northern and southern Xinjiang regions in 2025/26 were mostly above 15400 - 15500 (on a legal weight basis). For the same quality, the low basis in the Kashgar area was CF05 + 800 - 900, and the basis quotes in the northern Xinjiang production area were mostly above 1000, with a small amount below 1000. The low basis of grade 41 was mainly 900 - 1000, all for self - pick - up in Xinjiang [12][15] 2. Domestic Cotton Market Supply - The China Cotton Association predicts that the total cotton output in the 2025/26 season is expected to reach 7.216 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 8.3%, reaching a new high since 2013. Among them, the Xinjiang cotton region is particularly prominent, with an expected total output of about 6.911 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 9.2%, accounting for 95.8% of the national total output [18] Import - In October 2025, 90,000 tons of cotton were imported, a year - on - year decrease of 15,800 tons (compared to 105,800 tons) and a month - on - month decrease of 5000 tons (compared to 95,000 tons). From January to October 2025, the cumulative import was 770,800 tons, a year - on - year decrease of 67.4% or 1.595 million tons (compared to 2.3662 million tons). In the 2025/26 season, the cumulative import was 185,000 tons, a year - on - year decrease of 17% or 38,000 tons (compared to 223,100 tons) [24] Demand - Demand performance is average but still shows resilience. The operating rate remains flat [27][33] Profit - This week, the processing profit of ginning factories was 1013 - 1078 yuan per ton, and the immediate profit of spinning mills was - 1351.5 - - 507 yuan per ton [36] Inventory - As of the week of December 26, the national commercial cotton inventory was 5.125 million tons, a week - on - week increase of 117,700 tons, 99,200 tons higher than the same period last year. At the end of November, the industrial cotton inventory of cotton textile enterprises was 925,600 tons, a month - on - month increase of 51,400 tons [42] 3. International Market Global Cotton Supply and Demand - In the report released by USDA on December 10, the US cotton output in the 2025/26 season was further increased by 30,000 tons to 3.11 million tons. The global cotton output was reduced by 60,000 tons to 26.08 million tons compared to November, and the global cotton consumption was reduced by 60,000 tons to 25.82 million tons, with an overall limited impact [44]

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The steel market is in a state of continuous inventory reduction and limited demand during the off - season, with steel prices oscillating. The five major steel products continue to reduce inventory. For rebar, production and demand both increase weekly, and inventory continues to decline. For hot - rolled coils, short - term centralized maintenance and production cuts lead to a slightly larger inventory decline. The iron ore market shows a double - decline pattern in supply and demand, with port inventory continuing to rise slightly. The coking coal and coke market has relatively loose overall supply, and the inventory pressure of coke is not large, but there is a lack of upward momentum in the short term [3][4][5]. Summary by Directory 01 Market Review - The five major steel products continued to reduce inventory last week. Rebar had both increased production and demand, and its inventory continued to decline. The inventory reduction of hot - rolled coils accelerated slightly, which supported the price, with both futures and spot prices rising and the basis narrowing. The fundamentals of the steel market continued to improve, leading to a rebound in steel prices [9][10]. 02 Steel Supply and Demand Analysis - **Production**: Rebar production increased slightly, while hot - rolled coil production continued to decrease. Rebar production from both blast furnaces and electric furnaces increased. Blast furnace production was 152.38 million tons (up 0.77% month - on - month and down 20.54% year - on - year), and electric furnace production was 29.31 million tons (up 6.35% month - on - month and up 8.76% year - on - year) [13][15][21]. - **开工率**: The blast furnace operating rate decreased slightly month - on - month, while the electric furnace operating rate increased slightly. The national blast furnace operating rate was 78.47% (down 0.20% month - on - month and down 2.58% year - on - year), and the electric furnace operating rate was 69.123% (up 2.21% month - on - month and down 0.94% year - on - year) [22][26]. - **Profit**: The profits of rebar and hot - rolled coils rebounded month - on - month. Rebar profit was +42 yuan/ton (up 21 yuan/ton week - on - week and down 38 yuan/ton year - on - year), and hot - rolled coil profit was - 30 yuan/ton (up 12 yuan/ton week - on - week and down 51 yuan/ton year - on - year) [27][30]. - **Demand**: Rebar demand increased, while hot - rolled coil demand decreased. Rebar apparent consumption was 208.64 million tons (up 2.73% month - on - month and down 4.98% year - on - year), and hot - rolled coil apparent consumption was 298.28 million tons (down 4.39% month - on - month and down 4.46% year - on - year) [31][35]. - **Inventory**: Rebar inventory continued to decline, with both factory and social inventories decreasing. Rebar total inventory was 452.54 million tons (down 5.62% month - on - month and up 12.29% year - on - year). Hot - rolled coil inventory reduction expanded slightly, with both factory and social inventories declining. Hot - rolled coil total inventory was 390.72 million tons (down 1.60% month - on - month and up 26.33% year - on - year) [36][41][45]. - **Downstream**: In the real estate sector, commercial housing transactions increased month - on - month, while land transactions decreased month - on - month. In the automotive sector, in November 2025, production and sales were 3.532 million and 3.429 million vehicles respectively, up 5.1% and 3.2% month - on - month and 2.8% and 3.4% year - on - year [46][51]. 03 Iron Ore Supply and Demand Analysis - **Supply**: The arrival volume of iron ore decreased month - on - month. The price index of iron ore was 107.32 (up 2.27% month - on - month and up 5.98% year - on - year). The shipment volume from Australia and Brazil was 2814.7 million tons (down 5.09% month - on - month and up 9.19% year - on - year), and the arrival volume at 45 ports was 2646.7 million tons (down 2.80% month - on - month and up 23.76% year - on - year) [54][59]. - **Demand**: The daily output of hot metal continued to decline, and the port clearance volume decreased. The daily output of hot metal was 226.55 million tons (down 2.65 million tons month - on - month and down 2.86 million tons year - on - year), and the port clearance volume at 45 ports was 313.45 million tons (down 1.80% month - on - month and down 3.33% year - on - year) [60][64]. - **Inventory**: The port inventory of iron ore continued to reach new highs, while the iron ore inventory of steel enterprises decreased again. The inventory at 45 ports was 15512.63 million tons (up 0.53% month - on - month and up 4.37% year - on - year), and the imported iron ore inventory of 247 steel enterprises was 8723.95 million tons (down 1.25% month - on - month and down 8.86% year - on - year) [65][70]. 04 Coking Coal and Coke Supply and Demand Analysis - **Supply**: The operating rate of domestic mines increased slightly month - on - month, and Mongolian coal customs clearance remained at a high level. The operating rate of coking coal mines was 86.62% (up 1.54% month - on - month and down 0.55% year - on - year), and the average daily Mongolian coal customs clearance volume was 20.47 million tons (up 9.86% month - on - month and up 212% year - on - year) [72][76]. - **Coking Enterprises**: The profit of independent coking plants decreased month - on - month, and the capacity utilization rate decreased slightly. The profit per ton of coke was +16 yuan/ton (down 28 yuan/ton month - on - month and down 18 yuan/ton year - on - year), and the capacity utilization rate was 70.5% (down 1.97% month - on - month and down 2.42% year - on - year) [80][84]. - **Coking Coal Inventory**: Port inventory decreased month - on - month, and coking plant inventory remained stable. The coking coal inventory of independent coking plants was 881.37 million tons (down 0.26% month - on - month and up 0.97% year - on - year), and the port inventory of coking coal was 286.17 million tons (down 6.94% month - on - month and down 4.03% year - on - year) [85][90]. - **Coke Inventory**: Port inventory continued to decline, while coking plant inventory increased. The coke inventory of independent coking plants was 51.9 million tons (up 3.57% month - on - month and up 10.19% year - on - year), and the port inventory of coke was 175.65 million tons (down 3.06% month - on - month and up 5.08% year - on - year) [91][96]. - **Spot Price**: The third round of price cuts for coke has started, and the game between steel and coking enterprises continues. The price of low - sulfur coking coal in Shanxi was 1600 yuan/ton (up 100 yuan/ton week - on - week and up 50 yuan/ton year - on - year), and the ex - factory price of quasi - first - grade metallurgical coke in Handan was 1440 yuan/ton (stable month - on - month and down 170 yuan/ton year - on - year) [97][101]. 05 Spread Analysis - The basis of rebar and hot - rolled coils narrowed slightly, and the 1 - 5 spreads of rebar and hot - rolled coils both narrowed slightly. The coil - to - rebar spread continued to narrow, and the 1 - 5 spread of iron ore narrowed slightly [103][107].

Group 1: Report Overview - Report Title: "白糖市场弱势下行，供应压力主导盘面 -- 白糖周报2025年12月15日 - 19日" [1] - Author: Yang Jiangtao [1] - Professional Certificate Number: F03117249 [1] - Transaction Consultation Number: Z0022644 [1] - Contact Information: 0371 - 58620082 [1] Group 2: This Week's View Core View - The sugar market is in a downward trend, driven by supply pressure, with the price expected to maintain a weak and volatile bottom - seeking pattern in the next 1 - 2 weeks [3] Market Conditions - **Spot Market**: Spot prices generally declined. Liuzhou spot price dropped 1.88% week - on - week to 5,230 yuan/ton, and the market sentiment was pessimistic with a 70% bearish ratio. The basis strengthened to 142 yuan/ton, a 1320% week - on - week surge, indicating that the futures decline was greater than that of the spot [3] - **Futures Market**: The main contract price fell 2.29% during the week, closing at 5,088 yuan/ton, breaking through the previous support. The open interest increased significantly by 21.8% to 523,000 lots, showing significant short - position increasing pressure, and the price fluctuation showed a one - way downward feature [3] - **Supply**: The new domestic sugar - pressing season has fully started, with southern sugar mills starting production intensively, and the supply pressure of new sugar on the market continues. The total of warehouse receipts and valid forecasts was 5,101, a 142.79% week - on - week surge, confirming the registration pressure of new sugar [3] - **Demand**: Terminal procurement was cautious, and demand was weak. The bearish sentiment in the market was strong, with the bearish ratio increasing by 27.27% month - on - month to 70%, indicating that downstream players were generally pessimistic about the future market [3] - **Import and Export**: In October, the sugar import volume increased by 39.7% year - on - year, and the supply channels were loose. The in - quota import profit was substantial (1,861 yuan/ton for Brazilian sugar), and the out - of - quota profit was also positive, with the import window remaining open [3] - **Cost and Profit**: The domestic production cost supported the price, but the import processing cost decreased by 1.41% - 2.21% month - on - month. The out - of - quota import profit increased by 6.2% - 12.93% month - on - month, and the import hedging pressure remained high [3] - **Inventory**: The number of futures warehouse receipts was 3,611, a 491% week - on - week surge, and the valid forecast was 1,490. The inventory pressure was rapidly becoming apparent in the form of warehouse receipts [3] Group 3: Market Review Weekly Review | Category | Region | Last Friday | This Friday | Weekly Price Change | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | Futures | 11 - day sugar continuous contract closing price | 15.1 | 14.82 | - 1.85% | | | Zhengzhou sugar main contract closing price | 5320 | 5088 | - 4.36% | | Spot | Nanning current price | 5340 | 5240 | - 1.87% | | | Liuzhou current price | 5330 | 5230 | - 1.88% | | | Kunming current price | 5280 | 5180 | - 1.89% | | | Rizhao Lingyunhai current price | 5800 | 5780 | - 0.34% | | Basis | Liuzhou sugar and main contract basis | 10 | 142 | 1320.00% | | | Warehouse receipt quantity | 611 | 3611 | 491.00% | | | Valid forecast | 1490 | 1490 | 0.00% | | | Total: Warehouse receipts + valid forecasts | 2101 | 5101 | 142.79% | | CFTC Non - commercial Position | Long | 337475 | | VALUE! | | | Short | 154913 | | VALUE! | | | Net long | - 182562 | | VALUE! | | Market Sentiment | Zhengzhou sugar bullish ratio (%) | 10 | 10 | 0 | | | Zhengzhou sugar bearish ratio (%) | 55 | 70 | 15 | | | Zhengzhou sugar neutral ratio (%) | 35 | 20 | - 15 | [6] Group 4: Fundamental Analysis China Sugar Production and Sales - Not detailed in the provided content China's Main Sugar - Producing Areas (Cane Sugar) - Not detailed in the provided content China's Main Sugar - Producing Areas (Beet Sugar) - Not detailed in the provided content China's White Sugar Industrial Inventory - Not detailed in the provided content China's Sugar Import and Export - Not detailed in the provided content China's Main Sugar Importing Countries - Not detailed in the provided content China's Sugar Import Cost and Profit | Country | Project | | Last Week's Price | This Week's Price | Price Change | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | Brazil | Processing cost | In - quota | 3960 | 3904 | - 1.41% | | | | Out - of - quota | 5050 | 4976 | - 1.47% | | | Import profit | In - quota | 1832 | 1861 | 1.58% | | | | Out - of - quota | 742 | 788 | 6.20% | | | Premium/discount | | - 0.19 | 0.03 | 115.79% | | | Shipping cost | | 37.08 | 35.27 | - 4.88% | | Thailand | Processing cost | In - quota | 4013 | 3926 | - 2.17% | | | Import profit | In - quota | 1779 | 1839 | 3.37% | | | | Out - of - quota | 5118 | 5005 | - 2.21% | | | | Out - of - quota | 673 | 760 | 12.93% | | | Premium/discount | | 0.89 | 0.89 | 0.00% | | | Shipping cost | | 18 | 18 | 0.00% | [31] Group 5: International Market Fundamentals Brazil's Available Sugar Volume - Not detailed in the provided content Brazil's Sugarcane Crushing Volume - Not detailed in the provided content Brazil's Sugar Production Volume - Not detailed in the provided content Brazil's Ethanol Production Volume - Not detailed in the provided content Brazil's Sugar Import and Export - Not detailed in the provided content International Raw Sugar Premium/Discount and Shipping Cost - Not detailed in the provided content