1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The domestic urea spot market price fluctuated narrowly this week. The daily production of the urea industry has rebounded to the high - level of the same period. On the demand side, agricultural demand in some regions has followed up, and the current compound fertilizer production maintains a certain support for urea demand. However, there is an expectation that the downstream enterprises' production may decline during the approaching holiday. In the short term, the pre - sales of urea enterprises before the festival are gradually advancing, and the pending orders still provide support. The futures price may continue to trade in a high - level consolidation, and the UR2605 contract is expected to operate in the range of 1750 - 1830 yuan/ton [4]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Week - long Viewpoint Summary - **Supply**: The daily production has rebounded to the high - level of the same period. The weekly urea production is 146.92 tons (+0.98%), including 124.28 tons of coal - based urea production and 22.64 tons of gas - based urea production, with an average daily production of 20.98 tons [4][22]. - **Demand**: Attention should be paid to the changes in the compound fertilizer production rate. The compound fertilizer production rate is 41.79% (up 0.45% week - on - week), and the finished product inventory is 74.93 tons (down 0.63 tons week - on - week). The melamine production rate is 57.95% (down 0.85% week - on - week) [4][33]. - **Inventory**: The inventory of upstream urea enterprises continues to decline. The inventory of urea enterprises is 91.85 tons, a week - on - week decrease of 2.63 tons. The port inventory is 16.5 tons (a week - on - week increase of 2.1 tons), and the mainstream pre - sales days of urea enterprises are 8.82 days (a week - on - week increase of 2.23 days) [4][30]. - **Cost and Profit**: The coal price is stable, and the urea profit has increased week - on - week [4]. - **Basis and Spread**: The 5 - 9 spread is strong, and the 05 basis has strengthened [4]. 3.2 Variety Details Decomposition - **Domestic Market Price**: The domestic urea market price fluctuated narrowly this week [6]. - **International Market Price**: The international urea market price has increased [12]. - **Supply**: The daily production has rebounded to the high - level of the same period [18]. - **Inventory**: The inventory of upstream urea enterprises continues to decline, while the port inventory has increased slightly, and the pending orders of enterprises have increased [26]. - **Demand**: Attention should be paid to the changes in the compound fertilizer production rate. The compound fertilizer production has increased slightly, while the melamine production has decreased [32]. - **Raw Material End**: The coal price is stable [35]. - **Urea - related Product Spread**: No specific content provided [46].

1. Report Title and Period - The report is "Carbonate Lithium Weekly Report 2026.02.02 - 2026.02.06", focusing on the carbonate lithium market [1] 2. Report Industry Investment Rating - No investment rating information provided 3. Core Viewpoints - The market is in a wide - range shock stage after the high - price collapse. The core contradiction lies in the game between the short - term domestic supply contraction expectation and the long - term import increment and inventory accumulation expectation. Pre - holiday capital flight amplifies price fluctuations, and the weakening spot price and high warehouse receipt inventory put pressure on the market, with overall weak sentiment. It is expected that the high - volatility of the market will continue in the next 1 - 2 weeks, with prices seeking direction in the range of 130,000 - 140,000 yuan/ton, and post - holiday import arrivals and downstream resumption of work need to be closely monitored [3] 4. Summary by Directory 4.1 Lithium Salt Market Introduction - **Price Changes**: Carbonate lithium futures prices dropped 10.31% week - on - week to 132,920 yuan/ton. Battery - grade carbonate lithium spot prices fell 13.23% week - on - week to 138,400 yuan/ton, and industrial - grade carbonate lithium spot prices dropped 13.15% to 136,000 yuan/ton. Hydroxide lithium spot prices also declined, with the price of electric - carbon (coarse - grained) down 6.13% to 145,500 yuan/ton, electric - carbon (fine powder) down 5.93% to 150,700 yuan/ton, and industrial - grade down 6.35% to 140,200 yuan/ton [3][5] - **Premium and Discount Changes**: The premium and discount of various raw materials and enterprises have changed. For example, the premium of辉石料 increased by 250 yuan/ton, and that of Ganfeng Lithium Co., Ltd. increased by 400 yuan/ton [8] 4.2 Lithium Salt Fundamentals 4.2.1 Supply - **Carbonate Lithium Production**: The domestic carbonate lithium capacity utilization rate remained at a high level of 87.14%, but the hydroxide lithium capacity utilization rate decreased 5.41% week - on - week to 35%. Policy disturbances in Jiangxi mica mines and planned overhauls in some lithium salt plants strengthened the market's expectation of supply contraction in February [3] 4.2.2 Demand - **Downstream Consumption**: Downstream demand shows structural support, with the operating rate of energy - storage battery cells rising. However, due to the seasonal slowdown during the Spring Festival, the downstream production plan for February is expected to decline month - on - month, and the procurement of high - price raw materials is cautious [3] 4.2.3 Import and Export - **Lithium Ore Import**: The export volume from Chile increased significantly in January, and the market expects the import volume in March to reach a new high, which has led to concerns about inventory accumulation during the peak season and suppressed prices [3] - **Lithium Ore Transportation Cost**: The transportation costs from most African countries remained stable, with only the container transportation cost from Nigeria increasing by 6.67% week - on - week [29] 4.2.4 Inventory - **Carbonate Lithium Warehouse Receipt Inventory**: The exchange warehouse receipt inventory increased 10.27% week - on - week to 33,777 lots. Warehouses such as COSCO Shipping Nanchang Warehouse and JF Shanghai Warehouse had significant increases, intensifying inventory pressure [3][42] 4.2.5 Cost and Profit - **Carbonate Lithium**: The raw material cost decreased in line with the lithium price. The production cost of externally purchased lithium concentrate/mica decreased 13.07%/12.32% week - on - week. The profit of the externally purchased lithium mica route shrank 29.8% to 5,830 yuan/ton, while the externally purchased lithium concentrate route remained in a loss state [3] 4.3 Lithium Battery Fundamentals - The report also covers the market conditions, supply, demand, import and export, cost - profit, and recycling of lithium battery materials, as well as the production, sales, and other key data of new energy vehicles, but specific data details are not fully presented in the provided content [45]

白糖市场震荡寻底，供应宽松与成本支撑博 弈 --白糖周报2026-02-02至2026-02-06 作 者：杨江涛 执业证书编号：F03117249 交易咨询编号：Z0022644 联 系 方 式：0371-58620082 本周观点 | 品种 | 逻辑驱动 | 策略及风险提示 | | --- | --- | --- | | | 【现货市场】：现货价格小幅走弱，柳州现货价周环比下跌0.75%至5280元/吨， | 预计未来1-2周， | | | 市场情绪偏空。期货价格跌幅更大，柳州基差收窄至52元/吨，环比大幅收窄 | 白糖主力合约将 | | | 27.78%，反映期货端对供应压力更为敏感。 | 在成本支撑与供 | | | 【期货市场】：主力合约价格周内震荡，收盘价周环比微跌0.38%至5228元/吨。 | 应压力下，于 | | | 持仓量环比减少1.16%至44.69万手，显示资金观望情绪较浓，市场波动率有所收 | 5150-5280元/吨 | | | 敛。 | 区间内延续震荡 | | | 【供应方面】：国内处于压榨高峰期，本榨季增产预期明确。仓单及有效预报合 | 格局。 | | | 计环比增长3.6%至1 ...

春节假期临近 合金供需双弱 ——铁合金周报20260209 研 究 咨 询 部 ：彭博涵 联 系 方 式 ：0371-58630083 电 子 邮 箱 ：pengbh_qh@ccnew.com 执 业 证 书 编 号 ：F3076814 投 资 咨 询 编 号 ：Z0016415 01 硅铁 供应：产量小增 数据来源：Mysteel 中原期货 • 136家独立硅铁企业周产量9.92万吨（环比+0.7%，同比-10.1%） • 2025年1月硅铁产量43.7万吨（环比-3.8%，同比-7.3%） 需求：成材产量基本持稳 数据来源：Mysteel 中原期货 本期观点 | 品种 | 主要逻辑 | 策略建议 | 风险点 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | 供应：产量小幅回升。 | | | | | 需求：成材产量小增。 | | | | | 库存：厂家库存压力不大。 | | | | | 成本：兰炭小跌15元/吨。 | | 反内卷政 | | | | 短期震荡运 | 策、中美 | | 硅铁 | 基差：盘面小幅贴水。 | 行，节前轻 | 贸易谈判 | | | 总结：上周受贵金属剧烈波动拖累，黑色系整 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The mid - term bullish logic for copper, aluminum, and alumina remains unchanged. However, recently, market funds have become less enthusiastic, and prices may remain in an adjustment phase before the Spring Festival. Attention should be paid to the pressure brought by continuously rising inventories. For alumina, its fundamentals maintain an oversupply pattern, and a rebound requires new market drivers [4]. 3. Summary According to the Directory 3.1 Market Review 3.1.1 Weekly Market Review - Copper: The average price of 1 copper in the Yangtze River Color Market decreased from 104,640 yuan/ton on January 30, 2026, to 100,100 yuan/ton on February 6, 2026. The futures closing price of the main CU contract dropped from 103,680 yuan/ton to 100,100 yuan/ton. LME copper total inventory increased from 174,975 tons to 183,275 tons [8]. - Aluminum: The average price of A00 aluminum in the Yangtze River Color Market decreased from 24,640 yuan/ton to 23,110 yuan/ton. The futures closing price of the main AL contract fell from 24,560 yuan/ton to 23,315 yuan/ton. LME aluminum total inventory decreased from 495,725 tons to 490,975 tons [8]. - Alumina: The spot price index remained unchanged at 2,646 yuan/ton. The futures closing price of the main A0 contract increased from 2,768 yuan/ton to 2,824 yuan/ton [8]. 3.1.2 Weekly News Review - On February 5, Rio Tinto Group announced the abandonment of merger negotiations with Glencore, causing a world - class mining integration plan worth over $200 billion to end without result [11]. - On February 5, Canadian miner Capstone Copper's largest union at the Mantoverde copper - gold mine in Chile approved a new three - year labor contract, ending a strike that lasted over a month [11]. - On February 6, LME's deliverable copper inventory reached an 11 - month high [11]. - On February 9, the upper - limit price fluctuation range and trading margin ratio of copper, aluminum, and other futures contracts will be adjusted [11]. 3.2 Macroeconomic Analysis - On February 5, the European Central Bank kept its three key interest rates unchanged, in line with market expectations. About 85% of surveyed economists believe that interest rates will remain unchanged before 2026 [13]. - Upcoming macro - economic data announcements include China's January M2, M0, M1 money supply year - on - year, social financing scale increment, and new RMB loans; China's January CPI and PPI year - on - year; and the US January unemployment rate, non - farm payrolls change, and CPI year - on - year [14]. 3.3 Non - ferrous Market Analysis 3.3.1 Copper - **Spot Market**: As of February 5, SMM's national mainstream copper inventory increased by 4.03% week - on - week, and the total inventory increased by 62,700 tons year - on - year [30]. - **Futures Market**: Data shows the historical trends of Shanghai copper futures, options, and international copper futures positions [20]. - **Overseas Market**: Data presents the historical trends of LME copper inventory [26]. - **Market Inventory**: Data shows the historical trends of Shanghai bonded area copper inventory, SHFE copper inventory, LME copper inventory, and COMEX copper inventory [26]. - **Downstream Consumption**: From January 30 to February 5, the operating rate of domestic major refined copper rod enterprises was 69.07%, a decrease of 0.47 percentage points week - on - week. Due to the copper price limit - down triggering downstream purchasing, orders in the enameled wire and cable industries soared. It is expected that the operating rate of refined copper rod enterprises will decrease by 13.67 percentage points to 55.4% this week [30]. 3.3.2 Aluminum - **Domestic Market**: Data shows the historical trends of electrolytic aluminum spot inventory and 6063 aluminum rod inventory [32]. - **Futures Market**: Data presents the historical trends of aluminum futures, options, alumina futures, and alumina options positions [35]. - **Overseas Market**: Data shows the historical trends of LME aluminum total inventory [38]. - **Downstream Operating Rate**: As of February 5, the operating rate of domestic aluminum downstream processing leading enterprises was 57.9%, a decrease of 1.5 percentage points. Different sub - industries showed different trends [40]. - **Recycled Aluminum Alloy**: As of February 5, the SMM ADC12 quotation decreased by 750 yuan/ton week - on - week. Before the Spring Festival, demand and supply will contract simultaneously, and prices are expected to remain in a high - level oscillation with a slightly downward center of gravity [43]. - **Cost and Profit**: Data shows the historical trends of electrolytic aluminum cost, profit, and the relationship with the prices of alumina, pre - baked anodes, and thermal coal [47]. 3.3.3 Alumina - **Spot Market**: No specific content other than data sources is provided [51]. - **Futures Market**: No specific content is provided. - **Market Supply and Demand**: As of February 5, China's alumina production capacity was 113.9 million tons, the operating capacity was 91.5 million tons, and the operating rate was 76.15%. The demand for alumina did not change significantly [56]. - **Cost and Profit**: As of the week of February 6, the domestic alumina industry cost was 2,821.55 yuan/ton, and the average industry profit was - 178.66 yuan/ton [57].

季节性累库持续，钢价偏弱运行 ——周报20260209 研 究 所 ：林娜 联 系 方 式 ：0371-58620083 电 子 邮 箱 ：linna_qh@ccnew.com 执 业 证 书 编 号 ：F03099603 投 资 咨 询 编 号 ：Z0020978 | 本期观点——螺纹钢、热卷 品种 | 主要逻辑 | 策略建议 | 风险点 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | 供应：螺纹钢周产量191.68万吨（环比-4.08%，同比+4.29%），全国热卷周产量 | | | | | 309.16万吨（环比-0.02%，同比-4.62%）。 | | | | | 消费：螺纹钢表观消费147.64万吨（环比-16.30%，同比+143%），热卷表观消费 | | | | | 305.54万吨（环比-1.88%，同比+2.38%）。 | | | | | 库存：螺纹总库存519.57万吨（环比+9.26%，同比-26.34%），热卷总库存359.2 | 震荡偏弱运 | | | | 万吨（环比+1.02%，同比-13.30%）。 | 行 | | | | 成本：铁水日产小幅回升0.6万吨至228 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints - This week, there are numerous significant events in the global market. Domestically, China's January CPI, PPI, and credit data such as new loans and social financing are to be released, and the results of the Q4 2025 Hang Seng Index series review will be announced. Internationally, the delayed US January non - farm payrolls and inflation data are coming, and the US and Iran plan to hold a new round of negotiations. Many companies will disclose their latest financial reports [7]. - The A - share ETF market at the beginning of 2026 shows a "polarized" situation. Mainstream broad - based ETFs have suffered nearly 100 billion yuan in redemptions, while theme ETFs such as those in the chemical, non - ferrous metals, and power grid equipment sectors have attracted funds, indicating a strategic shift of funds from large - cap blue - chips to specific high - growth tracks [8]. - Since the beginning of 2026, southbound funds have continuously increased their investment in the Hong Kong stock market. As of February 8, southbound funds have had net inflows for seven consecutive trading days, with net purchases exceeding 10 billion yuan in the last three trading days [8]. - The A - share market is currently adjusting around the 4100 - point mark, but active equity funds have shown strong performance resilience, with 135 funds hitting new highs in their reinvested unit net values since February [9]. - The prices of various futures products show different trends. For example, in the chemical sector, natural rubber and 20 - number rubber have risen, while asphalt and fuel oil have fallen; in the agricultural products sector, yellow soybean No.2 and soybean meal have risen, while palm oil and yellow corn have fallen [4]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Chemical Industry | Product | Price on 2026/2/9 (8:00) | Price on 2026/2/6 (15:00) | Change | Change Rate | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | Coking Coal | 1,134.50 | 1,138.50 | - 4.0 | - 0.351% | | Coke | 1,688.00 | 1,698.50 | - 10.50 | - 0.618% | | Natural Rubber | 16,205.00 | 16,080.00 | 125.0 | 0.777% | | 20 - number Rubber | 13,115.00 | 13,050.00 | 65.0 | 0.498% | | Plastic | 6,769.00 | 6,812.00 | - 43.0 | - 0.631% | | Polypropylene PP | 6,668.00 | 6,691.00 | - 23.0 | - 0.344% | | (PTA) | 5,188.00 | 5,166.00 | 22.0 | 0.426% | | PVC | 4,989.00 | 4,981.00 | 8.0 | 0.161% | | Asphalt | 3,354.00 | 3,386.00 | - 32.0 | - 0.945% | | Methanol | 2,240.00 | 2,244.00 | - 4.0 | - 0.178% | | Ethylene Glycol | 3,739.00 | 3,743.00 | - 4.0 | - 0.107% | | Styrene | 7,609.00 | 7,625.00 | - 16.0 | - 0.210% | | Glass | 1,065.00 | 1,072.00 | - 7.0 | - 0.653% | | Crude Oil | 466.50 | 465.40 | 1.10 | 0.236% | | Fuel Oil | 2,804.00 | 2,831.00 | - 27.0 | - 0.954% | | Soda Ash | 1,178.00 | 1,190.00 | - 12.0 | - 1.008% | | Pulp | 5,220.00 | 5,234.00 | - 14.0 | - 0.267% | | LPG | 4,225.00 | 4,258.00 | - 33.0 | - 0.775% | | Caustic Soda | 1,923.00 | 1,862.00 | 61.0 | 3.276% | | ЬХ | 7,272.00 | 7,262.00 | 10.0 | 0.138% | [4] 3.2 Agricultural Products | Product | Price on 2026/2/9 (8:00) | Price on 2026/2/6 (15:00) | Change | Change Rate | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | Yellow Soybean No.1 | 4,380.00 | 4,378.00 | 2.0 | 0.046% | | Yellow Soybean No.2 | 3,483.00 | 3,468.00 | 15.0 | 0.433% | | Soybean Meal | 2,742.00 | 2,735.00 | 7.0 | 0.256% | | Rapeseed Meal | 2,240.00 | 2,239.00 | 1.0 | 0.045% | | Soybean Oil | 8,130.00 | 8,102.00 | 28.0 | 0.346% | | Rapeseed Oil | 9,146.00 | 9,144.00 | 2.0 | 0.022% | | Palm Oil | 9,018.00 | 9,026.00 | - 8.0 | - 0.089% | | White Sugar | 5,228.00 | 5,228.00 | 0 | 0 | | Yellow Corn | 2,263.00 | 2,274.00 | - 11.0 | - 0.484% | | Corn Starch | 2,535.00 | 2,540.00 | - 5.0 | - 0.197% | | No.1 Cotton | 14,655.00 | 14,580.00 | 75.0 | 0.514% | | Cotton Yarn | 20,425.00 | 20,405.00 | 20.0 | 0.098% | [4] 3.3 Main Variety Morning Meeting Views 3.3.1 Agricultural Products - **Sugar**: On February 6, the price was in a narrow - range shock. The supply pressure is the core contradiction, but there are marginal changes. The price may continue to consolidate in the short term, with the upper resistance at 5250 - 5280 yuan and the lower support at 5200 yuan [12]. - **Corn**: On February 6, the price continued to be oscillating and strengthening. The supply - side sales progress is faster, and the demand - side support is limited. One can consider buying on dips near 2250 - 2260 yuan, with short - term resistance at 2280 - 2300 yuan [12]. - **Peanut**: On February 6, the price was in a narrow - range shock. The supply - side import reduction supports the price, and the demand - side situation is relatively balanced. It is expected to remain in a bottom - oscillating pattern in the short term. One can wait and see or try to go long lightly near 8000 yuan [12]. - **Pig**: The current supply is abundant and the downstream demand is limited. The futures market is in a state of near - weak and far - strong [12]. - **Egg**: The current spot price is mainly stable, and the demand is the main factor. The futures market is oscillating, with near - strong and far - weak characteristics [13]. - **Jujube**: The price in the producing area is stable, and the sales area is in normal trading. The price is expected to remain stable in the short term, and the futures market is looking for support [13]. - **Cotton**: On February 6, the price was in a narrow - range shock. The supply - side has a long - term reduction expectation, but the short - term high inventory suppresses the price. It is expected to maintain a wide - range shock in the short term, and one can consider going long on dips [13]. 3.3.2 Energy and Chemicals - **Caustic Soda**: The overall fundamentals remain in an oversupply pattern, and attention should be paid to the impact of supply - side disturbances on prices [13]. - **Coking Coal and Coke**: As the holiday approaches, the supply and demand of coking coal and coke will be weak, and the prices will oscillate weakly [13]. - **Log**: On February 6, the price fell significantly. The pre - holiday demand decline pressure dominates, and it is expected to continue to be weakly oscillating in the short term [14]. - **Pulp**: The supply pressure persists, and the demand support is weak. The pulp price is expected to remain weakly oscillating in the short term [14]. - **Double - offset Paper**: The market is in a weak - balance state. The price is expected to maintain an interval shock in the short term, and one can consider high - selling and low - buying in the 4000 - 4100 yuan/ton range [14]. - **Urea**: The domestic urea market price is mainly stable. The supply has recovered to a high level, and the demand shows different trends. Attention should be paid to the impact of Indian tenders on market sentiment [14][16]. 3.3.3 Non - ferrous Metals - **Copper and Aluminum**: Recently, the market sentiment has cooled down, and copper and aluminum prices have adjusted at high levels, waiting to stop falling and stabilize [18]. - **Alumina**: The fundamentals of alumina remain in an oversupply pattern, waiting for new market drivers [19]. 3.3.4 Ferrous Alloys - **Silicon Iron and Manganese Silicon**: The overall fundamentals of ferrous alloys are relatively healthy. The short - term trend maintains a callback - biased - long thinking, and attention should be paid to the impact of the macro - environment [21]. 3.3.5 Lithium Carbonate - On February 6, the price was volatile. The supply is expected to shrink in February, and the demand provides short - term support, but the expected import increase in March suppresses the price. It is recommended to wait and see before the holiday [21]. 3.3.6 Option Finance - **Stock Index Options**: On February 6, the three major A - share indexes pulled back. Different index futures and options have different performance characteristics. Trend investors can pay attention to the strength - weakness arbitrage opportunities between varieties, and volatility investors can go long on volatility before the Spring Festival [21][22]. - **Stock Index**: Before the Spring Festival, the market is mainly oscillating. One can consider buying a straddle strategy. After the festival, the probability of an upward trend is high, and short - term trading should follow the thinking of a wide - range shock market [22][23]

中原期货研究咨询部 晨会纪要 2026 第（25）期 发布日期：2026-02-06 | 中原期货研究咨询部 | | --- | | 0371-58620081 0371-58620083 | | 公司官方微信 | 公司官方微信 1 中原期货研究咨询部 | 化工 | 主力合约 | 2026/2/6 | 2026/2/5 | 涨跌 | 涨跌幅/% | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | | 8:00 | 15:00 | | | | | 焦煤 | 1,161.00 | 1,172.00 | -11.0 | -0.939 | | | 焦炭 | 1,733.00 | 1,738.00 | -5.0 | -0.288 | | | 天然橡胶 | 16,200.00 | 16,175.00 | 25.0 | 0.155 | | | 20号胶 | 13,165.00 | 13,135.00 | 30.0 | 0.228 | | | 塑料 | 6,758.00 | 6.777.00 | -19.0 | -0.280 | | | 聚丙烯PP | 6,649.00 | 6,676.0 ...

中原期货研究咨询部 2026 第（24）期 发布日期：2026-02-05 | 中原期货研究咨询部 | 0371-58620081 | | --- | --- | | 0371-58620083 | | | 公司官方微信 | | 1 公司官方微信 中原期货研究咨询部 | 化工 | 主力合约 | 2026/2/5 | 2026/2/4 | 涨跌 | 涨跌幅/% | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | | 8:00 | 15:00 | | | | | 焦煤 | 1,187.50 | 1,209.00 | -21.50 | -1.778 | | | 焦炭 | 1,753.00 | 1,770.00 | -17.0 | -0.960 | | | 天然橡胶 | 16,325.00 | 16,385.00 | -60.0 | -0.366 | | | 20号胶 | 13,260.00 | 13,300.00 | -40.0 | -0.301 | | | 塑料 | 6,867.00 | 6.918.00 | -51.0 | -0.737 | | | 聚丙烯PP | 6,759 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating There is no information about the industry investment rating in the report. 2. Core Views of the Report - The prices of various commodities in the chemical and agricultural sectors showed different trends on February 4, 2026, compared to the previous day [4]. - The macro - economic news includes rumors of VAT rate hikes in some industries, major corporate mergers and IPO plans, and policy directions in different fields [6][7]. - For different commodity futures, the market conditions are affected by supply - demand relationships, seasonal factors, and macro - economic factors, and corresponding trading strategies are proposed [11][13][15]. - In the stock market, A - shares showed a general upward trend on February 3, while欧美 stocks declined. Different sectors had different performances, and trading strategies are suggested for different investors [22][23]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Chemical Industry - On February 4, 2026, most chemical futures showed price increases, such as natural rubber with a 0.803% increase, 20 - number rubber with a 0.955% increase, and asphalt with a 0.997% increase. Only PVC and caustic soda showed price decreases, with PVC down 0.335% and caustic soda down 0.863% [4]. 3.2 Macro - Economic News - Rumors of VAT rate hikes in the financial and Internet value - added service industries, especially in the game industry from 6% to 32%, turned out to be false [6]. - SpaceX merged with xAI, with the combined company valued at $1.25 trillion, and an expected IPO later this year [6]. - 30 provinces in China have set their GDP growth targets for 2026, with many economic powerhouses aiming for over 5% growth [6]. - Multiple commercial aerospace companies are in the process of going public, and they may list on the stock market intensively in the next one or two years [7]. - The Ministry of Industry and Information Technology emphasizes technological breakthroughs in future industries such as 6G, quantum technology, etc. [7]. - The Hong Kong Monetary Authority announced a financial technology promotion blueprint and will launch four flagship projects [7]. - There were disputes about OpenAI's attitude towards Nvidia's AI chips, but Nvidia's investment plan in OpenAI is still progressing [7]. - Different Fed officials have different views on interest - rate cuts. Waymo completed a new round of $16 billion in financing, with a post - investment valuation of $126 billion [8]. 3.3 Main Commodity Morning Meeting Views 3.3.1 Agricultural Products - **Sugar**: The supply - demand situation is loose both at home and abroad. The domestic sugar price is expected to remain in a weak and volatile state. It is advisable to be cautious when short - selling and focus on short - selling opportunities after a rebound [11]. - **Corn**: The market faces seasonal selling pressure before the Spring Festival and weakening demand. The price is in a high - level volatile state. It is recommended to wait and see, with the upper pressure at 2275 yuan and the lower support at 2250 yuan [11]. - **Peanut**: The price is expected to continue to fluctuate at the bottom in the short term. The lower support levels are 8000 yuan and 7900 yuan, and the upper pressure is 8100 yuan [11]. - **Pig**: The supply of pigs is temporarily tightened before the Spring Festival, and the futures market is expected to remain volatile [11][13]. - **Egg**: The spot market is stable, and the futures market shows a pattern of near - term strength and long - term weakness, seeking downward support [13]. - **Jujube**: The price is expected to remain stable in the short term. The downstream demand is fragmented, and the futures market is seeking downward support [13]. - **Cotton**: The supply has a long - term bullish factor of expected yield reduction, but the high inventory suppresses the upward space. The price is expected to remain in a high - level volatile state. It is advisable to operate cautiously on the long side, with the support range at 14500 - 14600 yuan [13]. 3.3.2 Energy and Chemicals - **Caustic Soda**: The fundamentals are in an oversupply situation, and attention should be paid to the impact of supply - side changes on prices [13]. - **Coking Coal and Coke**: The prices of coking coal in the production areas have declined, and the replenishment of steel and coking enterprises is coming to an end. The prices are expected to fluctuate and run [13]. - **Log**: The price is expected to maintain a relatively strong and volatile state, but the upward space is limited. It is advisable to adopt a volatile trading strategy, with the upper pressure at 805 yuan and the lower support at 795 yuan [13][15]. - **Pulp**: The supply - demand situation is weak. The price is expected to be under pressure and run weakly in the short term. It is recommended to wait and see or try short - selling lightly when the price is high, with the upper pressure at 5300 yuan/ton and the lower support at 5250 yuan/ton [15]. - **Offset Printing Paper**: The supply - demand relationship is in a weak balance. It is recommended to wait and see. If the price effectively breaks below 4030 yuan, the downward space may be opened [16]. 3.3.3 Non - ferrous Metals - **Copper and Aluminum**: The copper price is under pressure due to market uncertainties and the rising US dollar index. The aluminum supply is increasing, the demand is showing signs of stabilization, and the inventory accumulation speed has slowed down, but the structural contradiction remains. The market sentiment has stabilized, and attention should be paid to macro - risks [18]. - **Alumina**: The fundamentals are in an oversupply situation, waiting for new market drivers [20]. - **Rebar and Hot - Rolled Coil**: The demand is weakening as the holiday approaches, and the steel prices are expected to be under slight pressure and run weakly [20]. - **Silicon Ferrosilicon and Manganese Silicon**: The overall fundamentals are relatively healthy, but the market lacks expected drivers. The prices are expected to run weakly with a narrowing range, and the cost provides certain support. It is advisable to have a callback - and - long - biased trading idea and pay attention to the macro - atmosphere [20]. - **Lithium Carbonate**: The price rebounded strongly after a sharp decline, showing strong support below. It is expected to maintain a high - level volatile state in the short term. It is recommended to wait and see, with the upper pressure at 151880 yuan and the lower support at 137520 yuan [20][22]. 3.3.4 Options and Finance - **Stock Index Options**: On February 3, A - shares showed a general upward trend, and different stock index futures and options had different performance indicators. Trend investors can focus on the strength - weakness arbitrage opportunities between varieties, and volatility investors can hold short - wide - straddle positions to short - sell volatility. The stock market is likely to fluctuate in the two weeks before the Spring Festival, and attention should be paid to structural opportunities [22]. - **Stock Market**: A - shares closed higher on February 3, with active performance in some concept sectors. The欧美 stock market declined, and technology stocks were under pressure. The trading strategy is to participate in the rebound lightly when the price stabilizes after a sharp decline, not to chase the rise, and to realize profits when the price rises [22][23].