中原期货研究咨询部 晨会纪要 2025 第（146）期 发布日期：2025-08-12 | 中原期货研究咨询部 0371-58620081 | | --- | | 0371-58620083 | | 公司官方微信 | 1 公司官方微信 中原期货研究咨询部 | 化工 | 主力合约 | 2025/8/12 | 2025/8/11 | 涨跌 | 涨跌幅/% | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | | 8:00 | 15:00 | | | | | 焦煤 | 1,275.00 | 1,256.00 | 19.0 | 1.513 | | | 焦炭 | 1,771.50 | 1,681.00 | 90.50 | 5.384 | | | 天然橡胶 | 15,760.00 | 15,755.00 | 5.0 | 0.032 | | | 20号胶 | 12,595.00 | 12,620.00 | -25.0 | -0.198 | | | 塑料 | 7,312.00 | 7,314.00 | -2.0 | -0.027 | | | 聚丙烯PP | 7,093.00 | 7,095. ...

纯碱玻璃周报——2025.08.11 中原期货研究咨询部 作者：申文 执业证书编号：F03117458 投资咨询编号：Z0022654 shenwen_qh@ccnew.com 0371-58620081 01 周度观点汇总 3 1.1 纯碱周度观点——供应端压力较大 品种 主要逻辑 策略建议 风险提示 纯碱 1.供应 装置开工率85.41%（环比+5.15%），氨碱法89.20%（环比+2.80%），联碱法73.92%（+6.06%)； 周产量74.47万吨（环比+4.49万吨），轻碱产量32.12万吨（+2.01万吨），重碱产量42.35万吨 （+2.48万吨）。 2.需求 纯碱表需67.54万吨（-9.32万吨），轻碱表需29.66万吨（-5.37万吨），重碱表需37.88万吨 （-3.95万吨）。 3.库存 纯碱企业库存186.51万吨（+1.33万吨），轻碱库存71.76万吨（+0.86万吨），重碱库存 114.75万吨（+0.47万吨）。 4.核心逻辑 本周纯碱现货价格偏弱运行，近期碱厂检修装置陆续复产，纯碱供应再度回升至同比高位水 平。需求端，纯碱表需环比大幅下降，浮法玻璃及光伏玻璃日熔量持稳为 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The egg market is currently characterized by high overall production capacity, with a slowdown in recent new replenishment. The supply - side pressure is gradually weakening, while the demand has improved but the marginal support is weakening, requiring new demand from tourism and Mid - Autumn Festival stocking. - The cost of feed has slightly declined, with the current feed cost around 2.5 yuan per catty and the comprehensive breeding cost around 2.8 yuan per catty. Egg prices have returned above the feed breeding cost seasonally, and profits have improved. - The spot market will still receive seasonal demand support after a short - term release of the decline sentiment, but the futures premium is obvious, and it is difficult to follow the spot rebound. As the delivery month approaches, the main 09 contract may decline to repair the basis, and attention should be paid to reverse spread opportunities. [3] 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Futures Review - Last week, egg futures maintained a weak oscillation, and the overall weakness remained unchanged. The biggest contradiction in the market is the large basis, with obvious selling pressure and weak willingness to take delivery. [6] Spot Review - Last week, egg spot prices maintained a weak adjustment and stabilized over the weekend. The sales areas started to sell at low prices, and the market began to accept the goods. After this round of adjustment, the spot prices will be supported by the start of school for students and Mid - Autumn Festival deep - processing stocking. Attention should be paid to the rebound height. [13] Supply - Newly - added capacity: From August to November 2025, the newly - opened production corresponds to the replenishment volume from April to July 2025, and the newly - added capacity will decline significantly. - Elimination capacity: From August to November 2025, the normal elimination capacity corresponds to the replenishment volume from March to June 2024. The data shows a high elimination volume, but the current data indicates obvious delayed elimination. - Laying hen inventory: The inventory data continues to increase slightly, but it will start to decrease in September. The newly - added capacity is stable with a slight decline, and the elimination is relatively slow. The overall supply pressure still exists. [16] Elimination End - The price of eliminated chickens is 5.51 yuan per catty (- 0.27). The elimination volume has significantly decreased. The peak season and a slight price rebound limit the enthusiasm for elimination. The average elimination age is 502 days, remaining unchanged, and the overall age has reached the normal range, but the elimination of backward production capacity is not ideal. [19] Seasonal Factors - It is the seasonal peak season. On the production area side, the inventory pressure in the production areas has increased, high temperatures have reduced the laying rate and increased costs. On the consumption side, the arrival of the tourism peak season combined with deep - processing has improved the overall demand. [21] Cost & Profit - Cost side: Corn prices are running at a high level, and soybean meal prices have steadily declined. The overall cost remains volatile. The current feed cost is around 2.5 yuan per catty, and the comprehensive breeding cost is around 2.8 yuan per catty. - Breeding profit: Recently, egg prices have risen, and the spot price has returned above the feed cost. However, the overall comprehensive breeding profit is still in a loss, showing a seasonal bottom - rebounding trend. Attention should be paid to the negative feedback on backward production capacity. [27] Capital and Market - Capital has increased at a high level, and market competition has intensified. Bears believe that the production capacity is high, there is seasonal suppression, and the futures premium over the spot still has room to decline. Bulls believe that the valuation is low, and the seasonality is about to turn from weak to strong, making it valuable to go long. Currently, the reality is stronger than expectations, with obvious futures premium over the spot and obvious selling pressure in the market, waiting for the cycle conversion. [30] Basis and Spread - Basis: The basis is negative, and the overall futures are at a premium. The current basis is running at a low level, waiting for the basis to strengthen with the arrival of the peak season, which is more likely to be achieved through a decline in futures prices. - Spread: It shows that supply exceeds demand. The near - month contracts in the market are constantly repairing the basis through price declines, and the far - month contracts face the expectation of reduced production capacity, with a focus on reverse spread operations. [32][34]

中原期货研究咨询部 【中原化工】 下游提货积极性不足，秋季肥库存压力较大 ——尿素周报2025.08.11 作者：申文 执业证书编号：F03117458 投资咨询编号：Z0022654 shenwen_qh@ccnew.com 0371-58620081 01 周度观点汇总 1.1 尿素周度观点——下游提货积极性不足，秋季肥库存压力较大 | 品种 1. 供应：8月份复产装置较多，供应预计将有所回升； | 主要逻辑 | 策略建议 | 风险提示 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 2. 需求：秋季肥开工提升，成品库存压力仍较大； 3. 库存：上游尿素企业库存环比小幅下降； | | | | | | 4. 成本与利润：煤炭价格涨势放缓，尿素利润环比小幅下降； | | 新 增 产 能 投 放 | | 5. 基差与价差：9-1价差偏强震荡运行，09基差变化有限。 6. 整体逻辑： | | UR2509合约关 | （下行风险）， | | | | 注 1680-1700 元 / | 吨 宏观利好、出口 | | | 本周国内尿素现货市场价格偏弱运行，当前日产将维持19-20万吨附近波动，8月份前期检 | ...

煤炭走强提振 合金重心抬升 ——铁合金周报20250811 研 究 咨 询 部 ：彭博涵 联 系 方 式 ：0371-58630083 电 子 邮 箱 ：pengbh_qh@ccnew.com 执 业证书 编 号 ：F3076814 投资咨询 编 号 ：Z0016415 供应：增幅扩大，同比转正 5 6 7 8 9 1 0 1 1 1 2 1 3 1 4 1-1 1-14 1-27 2-9 2-22 3-7 3-20 4-2 4-15 4-28 5-11 5-24 6-6 6-19 7-2 7-15 7-28 8-10 8-23 9-5 9-18 10-1 10-14 10-27 11-9 11-22 12-5 12-18 12-31 硅铁周产量：万吨 2022 2023 2024 2025 30.00 35.00 40.00 45.00 50.00 55.00 60.00 硅铁月产量：万吨 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 数据来源：Mysteel 中原期货 • 136家独立硅铁企业周产量10.91万吨（环比+4.5%，同比+7.3%） • 2025年7月硅铁产量44.67万吨（环比+7.8 ...

作者： 刘培洋 联系方式：0371-58620083 库存稳步增长，铜铝振荡整理 ——铜铝周报2025.08.11 交易咨询编号：Z0011155 本期观点 | 品种 | 主要逻辑 | 策略建议 | 风险提示 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | 1、宏观面：国内7月出口增速继续超出预期，关注政策端变化；美 国关税政策逐步落地，对经济影响有待观察；美联储人事变动博弈， 市场对年内降息预期升温。 | 沪铜2509合约 上方参考压力 | 1、国内外宏 | | | 2、基本面：供应端高端货源紧缺，进口低价货源补充有限，区域流 | 位80000元/吨 | 观政策及经 | | 铜 | | 一线，下方参 | 济数据变化； | | | 通不均。需求端受高铜价抑制，下游采购偏谨慎。库存方面，截至8 | 考支撑位 | 2、国外铜矿 | | | 月7日，全国主流地区铜库存上升至13.20万吨。 | 76000元/吨一 | 供应因素。 | | | 3、整体逻辑：美国对铜加征关税落地，高库存对铜价压力逐步显现， | 线。 | | | | 建议等待价格逐步企稳。 | | | 本期观点 电子邮箱：liupy_q ...

淡季小幅累库,钢价仍有上行驱动 ——周报20250811 | 本期观点——铁矿石 | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 品种 | 主要逻辑 | 策略建议 | 风险点 | | | 供应：澳洲和巴西19港口发运2463.9万吨（环比-7.99%，同比-2.84%），铁 | | | | | 矿石45港口到港量2507.8万吨（环比+11.93%，同比-3.94%） 。 | | | | | 需求：铁水日产240.32万吨（环比-0.39万吨，同比+8.62万吨 ），铁矿石45 | | | | | 港口疏港量321.85万吨（环比+6.32%，同比+1.58%）。 | | 铁水超预 | | | 库存：铁矿石45港口库存13712.27万吨（环比+0.40%，同比-8.80%），247家 | 单边：区间 | 期下滑、 | | 铁矿 | 钢企进口铁矿库存9013.34万吨（环比+0.01%，同比-0.36%）。 | 震荡 | 终端需求 | | | | | 不及预期、 | | | 总结：供应端，澳巴发运短期供应压力不大，铁水小幅下降，但同比仍处历 | 750-830 | 宏观不及 | | | ...

库存压力明显，烧碱承压调整 ——烧碱周报2025.08.11 烧碱产业链 联系方式：0371-58620083 电子邮箱：liupy_qh@ccnew.com 作者： 刘培洋 执业证书编号：F0290318 交易咨询编号：Z0011155 本期观点 | 品种 | 主要逻辑 | 策略建议 | 风险提示 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | 1、宏观：国内7月出口增速继续超出预期，关注政策端变化；美国 | | | | | 关税政策逐步落地，对经济影响有待观察；美联储人事变动博弈， | 烧碱2509合约 | 1、国内外宏 | | | 市场对年内降息预期升温。 | 上方参考压力 | 观政策及经 | | | 2、供需面：华东区域内装置检修及恢复共存，但非铝需求并未有实 | | 济数据变化； | | 烧碱 | 质性利好提振下，受主力区域价格下行拖累，预计本周液碱价格弱 | 位2650元/吨 | 2、企业装置 | | | 稳调整。山东省内液碱弱势维持，高度碱出货节奏放缓，后期省内 | 一线，下方支 | 检修情况； | | | 液碱价格弱稳走势。 | 撑位2350元/ | 3、下游需求 | | | ...

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The A-share market's upward trend is stable driven by liquidity, and with the continuous implementation of policy combinations, the supply-demand pattern will optimize, potentially leading to stable improvement in the earnings and ROE of the entire A-share market. The market style is shifting from traditional cyclical sectors to technology sectors, and high-quality technology assets may have significant excess returns in the third quarter [7]. - The prices of various commodities in the market show different trends. Some are expected to be volatile, some are expected to decline, and some are expected to rebound [4][11][12][13][14][15][16]. - The bullish trend of the stock index continues, but there may be short - term adjustments. It is advisable to focus on the low - buying opportunities of IF, IM, and IC [19][20][21]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 1. Chemical Industry - **Price Changes**: On August 11, 2025, in the chemical industry, the prices of natural rubber, 20 - number rubber, plastic, etc. rose, while the prices of coke, styrene, and soda ash fell [4]. 2. Macro News - **Corporate Performance**: Industrial Fulin's semi - annual report in 2025 shows that its revenue and net profit attributable to the parent company have increased significantly year - on - year, with the second - quarter single - season revenue exceeding 200 billion yuan for the first time [7]. - **Stock Market Performance**: Last week, the three major A - share indexes all rose on a weekly basis. The Shanghai Composite Index hit a new high this year, and the Shenzhen Component Index and the ChiNext Index also had certain increases [7]. - **Regional Economy**: The GDP growth rates of Wenzhou, Dalian, and Xuzhou in the first half of the year exceeded 6%, and there is a possibility of entering the "trillion - yuan club" by the end of the year [8]. - **US Policies and Market**: The US government will stop providing tax credits for electric vehicles from September 30, 2025. The sales of electric vehicles in July reached a record high, but it is expected that the sales will "plummet" in the fourth quarter [8]. - **Commodity Prices**: The gold futures price on the New York Mercantile Exchange hit a new high last Friday. The "interest - rate cut trading" and "Trump 2.0" will continue to catalyze in 2025, and central bank reserves will support the gold price [9]. 3. Morning Meeting Views on Major Varieties 3.1 Agricultural Products - **Peanuts**: The peanut market is in a pattern of weak supply and demand, with prices fluctuating narrowly. In the short term, it is expected to be strongly volatile but still in a downward trend [11]. - **Oils and Fats**: The total trading volume of oils and fats decreased by 57% compared to the previous trading day. The market lacks driving forces and is expected to be weakly volatile [11]. - **Sugar**: The domestic sugar market has a different rhythm from the overseas market. If the raw sugar can stop falling and rebound, the 01 contract price may rise to repair the discount [11]. - **Pigs**: The spot price of pigs decreased last week. The supply is sufficient but the demand is weak. The futures market shows a pattern of near - term weakness and long - term strength, with a clear reverse spread trend [11]. - **Eggs**: The spot price of eggs has fallen and stabilized. The futures market has a large premium over the spot, and it is recommended to short on rebounds [12]. - **Cotton**: The cotton market is weakly volatile. The new cotton harvest is expected to be good, and the demand is under pressure. In the short term, there may be a small technical rebound [12]. 3.2 Energy and Chemicals - **Urea**: The domestic urea market price is weakly operating. Supply pressure is expected to increase, and the price may continue to be weakly volatile with support at the bottom [12]. - **Caustic Soda**: The caustic soda contract is under pressure for adjustment, and it is recommended to pay attention to the reverse spread [12][13][14]. - **Coking Coal**: The supply of coking coal is disturbed, and the downstream acceptance of high prices is decreasing. It is expected to be in a high - level volatile state [13]. 3.3 Industrial Metals - **Copper and Aluminum**: The copper price is adjusting due to policy uncertainties, and the aluminum price is expected to continue high - level adjustment due to factors such as increased supply and weak demand [13][14]. - **Alumina**: The alumina market is in an oversupply pattern. The futures price is under pressure, and the spot price is relatively stable, expected to be range - bound [14]. - **Steel Products**: The steel market is in the off - season with slight inventory accumulation. The steel price is expected to be volatile with limited downward space and potential upward driving forces [13][14][16]. - **Ferroalloys**: The ferroalloy market is in a wide - range volatile pattern. Supply is increasing, demand is weak, and it is recommended to take a range - bound trading approach in the short term [16]. - **Lithium Carbonate**: The price of lithium carbonate is expected to fluctuate more due to the uncertainty of the production status of a lithium mine. If the mine shuts down, the price center may rise [16]. 3.4 Options and Finance - **Options**: Index options show different performance in terms of volume, open interest, and implied volatility. Trend investors can focus on arbitrage opportunities between varieties, and volatility investors can buy straddles to bet on increased volatility [18]. - **Stock Index**: The bullish trend of the stock index continues. The Shanghai Composite Index may consolidate around 3600 points. It is recommended to focus on low - buying opportunities of IF, IM, and IC [19][20][21].

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Ratings There is no information about the report industry investment ratings in the provided content. 2. Core Viewpoints - The market showed strong performance from August 4th - 8th, with the Shanghai Composite Index hitting a new high for the year. Despite potential short - term adjustments, confidence in hitting new highs within the year should be maintained [3]. - Different varieties have different price trends and investment suggestions. For example, aluminum prices may maintain high - level consolidation, while lithium carbonate prices may be volatile due to the uncertainty of mine production [3]. 3. Summary by Variety Options - The Shanghai Composite Index reached a new high this week, with daily trading volume above 1.5 trillion. Different index options have different performance in terms of K - line indicators, basis, trading volume, open interest, and implied volatility. Trend investors can focus on relevant varieties, and volatility investors can buy wide - straddles to bet on volatility [2]. Stock Index - From August 4th - 8th, the market was strong, with the Shanghai Composite Index rising 2.11% on the weekly K - line. Looking ahead to August 11th - 15th, economic data releases and mid - year report disclosures may affect market sentiment. Investment should focus on IF and IM, and look for low - buying opportunities in IC [3]. Aluminum - Macroeconomic factors such as domestic export growth, US tariff policies, and Fed personnel changes are at play. Fundamentally, supply increases and the off - season of consumption lead to a strong expectation of inventory accumulation. Aluminum prices may maintain high - level consolidation in the range of 20,000 - 21,000 yuan/ton [3]. Lithium Carbonate - Spot prices are 68,000 - 70,000 yuan/ton, and futures prices have fallen. Due to the uncertainty of the production status of the Jianxiawo lithium mine, price fluctuations are expected to intensify. If the mine shuts down, the price center may rise significantly. Investment strategy is to buy on dips [3]. Coking Coal and Coke - This week, coal production and inventory decreased. Supply disruptions are still expected, but downstream acceptance of high prices has declined. Coke has started the sixth round of price increases, and prices are expected to remain relatively strong and fluctuate at high levels [4]. Urea - The current daily production is high, and supply pressure is expected to increase in August. Demand from agricultural top - dressing has ended, and compound fertilizer production has inventory pressure. Futures prices may continue to fluctuate weakly, with support around 1,700 yuan/ton [4]. Rebar and Hot - Rolled Coil - The production of the five major steel products increased while demand decreased, and inventory growth slightly expanded. Steel prices are expected to have limited downward space and still have upward drivers [4]. Eggs - Last week, egg spot prices fell and then stabilized. This week, the strategy is to short on rebounds [5]. Pigs - Last week, pig spot prices fell. Supply is sufficient but demand is weak, and prices are expected to continue to decline in the short term. Futures show a pattern of near - term weakness and long - term strength, with a range - bound trend [5]. Sugar - Domestic and international sugar prices have declined. With the expected shutdown of some northern sugar refineries and potential shortages in Brazilian shipments and domestic arrivals, the 01 contract may repair some of the discount [5]. Cotton - Cotton prices have declined. In the short term, there may be a small technical rebound, with support at 13,350 yuan/ton. The market has a strong expectation of a bumper cotton harvest in 2025, and demand is under pressure [5][6].