Report Title - The sugar market is fluctuating weakly, with a game between supply pressure and cost support - Sugar Weekly Report from October 27th to October 31st, 2025 [1] Report Author - Author: Yang Jiangtao [2] - Professional Certificate Number: F03117249 [2] - Transaction Consultation Number: Z0022644 [2] - Contact Information: 0371 - 58620082 [2] Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Core Viewpoints - The sugar market is currently in a weakly fluctuating phase. The core contradiction between bulls and bears lies in the game between the expected increase in production in the Northern Hemisphere (Brazil's increased output + China's new sugar - making season) and cost support (production cost line of 5400 yuan). The supply - demand situation remains loose, and the futures price is repeatedly testing support in the range of 5450 - 5500 yuan, lacking short - term breakthrough momentum. It is expected that the main sugar contract will continue to fluctuate in the range of 5400 - 5500 yuan/ton in the next 1 - 2 weeks, and the direction will be determined by the progress of the new sugar - making season and policy signals [4] Summary by Directory 1. Market Review 1.1 Weekly Review - The closing price of the 11 - sugar continuous contract decreased by 3.61% from 14.97 to 14.43. The closing price of the main Zhengzhou sugar contract increased by 0.68% from 5446 to 5483. Spot prices in Nanning, Liuzhou, Kunming, and Rizhao Lingyunhai all decreased slightly. The basis between Liuzhou sugar and the main contract narrowed by 20.09% from 234 to 187. The total of warehouse receipts and valid forecasts decreased by 7.47% from 8771 to 8116. The market sentiment shows that the proportion of bearish views on Zhengzhou sugar is 50% [6] 1.2 Domestic Futures and Spot - Not detailed in the provided content 1.3 Raw Sugar Futures - Not detailed in the provided content 2. Fundamental Analysis 2.1 China's Sugar Production and Sales - Not detailed in the provided content 2.2 Production and Sales of Sugarcane Sugar in Main Chinese Producing Areas - Not detailed in the provided content 2.3 Production and Sales of Beet Sugar in Main Chinese Producing Areas - Not detailed in the provided content 2.4 China's White Sugar Industrial Inventory - Not detailed in the provided content 2.5 China's Sugar Imports and Exports - Not detailed in the provided content 2.6 Main Sugar - Importing Countries of China - Not detailed in the provided content 2.7 China's Sugar Import Cost and Profit - For Brazil, the in - quota processing cost decreased by 5.54% from 4040 to 3816, the in - quota import profit increased by 10.59% from 1851 to 2047, the out - of - quota processing cost decreased by 5.67% from 5154 to 4862, and the out - of - quota import profit increased by 35.82% from 737 to 1001. For Thailand, the in - quota processing cost decreased by 5.43% from 4124 to 3900, the in - quota import profit increased by 11.04% from 1767 to 1962, the out - of - quota processing cost decreased by 5.53% from 5263 to 4972, and the out - quota import profit increased by 41.88% from 628 to 891 [31] 3. International Market Fundamentals 3.1 Available Sugar Quantity in Brazil - Not detailed in the provided content 3.2 Sugarcane Crushing Volume in Brazil - Not detailed in the provided content 3.3 Sugar Production in Brazil - Not detailed in the provided content 3.4 Ethanol Production in Brazil - Not detailed in the provided content 3.5 Sugar Imports and Exports in Brazil - Not detailed in the provided content 3.6 International Raw Sugar Premiums and Freight Costs - Not detailed in the provided content

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. 2. Core View of the Report - In the short term, the upside potential of cotton prices is limited, and they are expected to fluctuate within a narrow range. Domestic cotton prices continued a slight rebound supported by rising acquisition costs and positive expectations from Sino - US negotiations, but the rebound momentum slowed as positive factors were digested. ICE cotton futures prices rebounded due to Fed rate - cut expectations and Sino - US negotiation prospects, despite the lack of significant improvement in the industrial fundamentals [3]. 3. Summary by Directory 01 Market Review - **US Cotton Weekly Review**: US cotton rebounded due to Fed rate - cut expectations and Sino - US negotiation prospects. As of September 26, non - commercial long positions were 69,367 contracts, a decrease of 751 from the previous week; non - commercial short net positions were 114,787 contracts, an increase of 2,020; non - commercial net positions were - 45,420 contracts, a decrease of 2,771 [9]. - **Zhengzhou Cotton**: Zhengzhou cotton fluctuated narrowly, ranging from 13,520 to 13,675 yuan/ton, with a Friday closing price of 13,595 yuan/ton, a week - on - week increase of 55 yuan or 0.41%. As of October 31, the registered and forecasted cotton warrants totaled 3,858 contracts, equivalent to 162,000 tons [10]. - **Cotton Textile Spot Weekly Data**: Spot prices were basically stable, but trading was sluggish. The seed cotton acquisition price showed a trend of first falling and then rising, with the price in the current week at 6.4 - 6.5 yuan/kg, supporting cotton prices. The overall spot basis narrowed, and many cotton merchants lowered their spot sales basis [12][14]. 02 Domestic Cotton Market - **Supply**: The China Cotton Association predicts that the 2025/26 cotton output will reach 7.216 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 8.3%, with Xinjiang's output expected to be about 6.911 million tons, a 9.2% increase and accounting for 95.8% of the national total. New cotton listing is slower than in previous years. In September 2025, China imported 95,000 tons of cotton, with Australia and Brazil being the main sources [17][25]. - **Demand**: Demand is weaker than in previous years, with no obvious domestic demand improvement and a slight improvement in exports. Weaving mills' raw material procurement is mainly on a wait - and - see basis, with orders - based purchasing [27][33]. - **Profit**: This week, the processing profit of ginning mills was 396 - 445 yuan/ton, and the immediate profit of spinning mills was - 1,022.1 to - 945.3 yuan/ton, a decline from the previous week [36]. - **Inventory**: As of the week of October 31, the national commercial cotton inventory was 2.3261 million tons, a week - on - week increase of 484,500 tons and 77,200 tons higher than the same period last year. At the end of September, the industrial inventory of cotton textile enterprises was 845,500 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 46,800 tons [42]. 03 International Market - **Global Cotton Supply and Demand**: According to the latest USDA September forecast, the global cotton output in September was 25.62 million tons, a month - on - month increase of 230,000 tons; total consumption increased by 184,000 tons to 25.68 million tons; and the ending inventory decreased by 168,000 tons to 15.92 million tons [44]. - **US Cotton Export**: Due to the US government shutdown, most USDA reports have suspended disclosure [47]. - **US Cotton Growth**: No specific content provided.

Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided Core Viewpoints of the Report - The A-share market showed positive performance in the first three quarters of 2025, with revenue and net profit increasing year-on-year, and the profit growth rate in the third quarter significantly improved [7]. - The Sino-US economic and trade consultations achieved consensus, which will have a positive impact on relevant industries [6]. - Policies such as the improvement of duty-free shop policies and the release of new policy-based financial instruments will support consumption and project construction [8]. Summary by Related Catalogs 1. Chemical Industry - On October 31, 2025, among chemical products, the prices of coking coal, coke, natural rubber, etc. rose, while the prices of 20 - number rubber, PVC, etc. fell [4]. 2. Macro News - The Chinese and US heads of state held talks, and the economic and trade teams reached a consensus on important economic and trade issues, and agreed to strengthen cooperation in economic and trade, energy and other fields [6]. - The results of the Sino - US economic and trade consultations in Kuala Lumpur were announced. The US will cancel the 10% so - called "fentanyl tariff" on Chinese goods, and the 24% reciprocal tariff will be suspended for another year [6]. - As of October 31, 2025, 5437 A - share listed companies disclosed their Q3 reports for 2025. The total revenue in the first three quarters was 53.41 trillion yuan, a year - on - year increase of 1.20%; the net profit attributable to the mother was 4.70 trillion yuan, a year - on - year increase of 5.34%. The profit growth rate in the third quarter reached 11.30% [7]. - The Ministry of Commerce issued an implementation opinion on expanding green trade, proposing 16 specific measures in three aspects [7]. - Five departments including the Ministry of Finance jointly issued a document to improve the duty - free shop policy from November 1, expanding the business categories of duty - free shops [8]. - 500 billion yuan of new policy - based financial instruments have been fully invested, which is expected to drive the total project investment to exceed 7 trillion yuan [8]. 3. Morning Meeting Views on Main Varieties 3.1 Agricultural Products - Peanuts: On October 30, the peanut futures closed at 7800 yuan/ton, showing a weak and volatile trend. It is recommended to wait and see in the short term, focusing on the support at 7700 yuan [11]. - Sugar: On October 30, the sugar futures closed at 5472 yuan/ton. It is recommended to short on rebounds, focusing on the performance of the 5450 - 5480 support zone [11]. - Corn: On October 30, the corn futures closed at 2111 yuan/ton. It is recommended to maintain a bearish view, focusing on the support at 2100 yuan [11]. - Live pigs: The overall price of live pigs rose slightly, but the northern region declined while the southern region rose. The spot price increase ended, and the futures market remained in a low - level shock [11]. - Eggs: The spot price of eggs was stable. The futures market maintained a strong shock. It is recommended to short in the short term and conduct inter - month reverse arbitrage [13]. - Cotton: On October 30, the Zhengzhou cotton futures closed at 13600 yuan/ton. The cotton price is expected to remain stable in the short term, fluctuating in the range of 13500 - 13700 yuan/ton [13]. 3.2 Energy and Chemicals - Urea: The domestic urea market price was weakly stable. The supply pressure is expected to increase, and the futures price will continue to be sorted at a low level [12]. - Caustic soda: The market expectation is weak, and the caustic soda 2601 contract is under pressure. Pay attention to the support at the annual low [12]. - Coking coal and coke: The price of coking coal is supported, and the third - round price increase negotiation for coke continues. The short - term price is expected to fluctuate and adjust [12][14]. - Pulp: The pulp futures are expected to maintain a bottom - shock trend in the short term. It is recommended to wait and see and pay attention to the port inventory reduction [14]. 3.3 Industrial Metals - Copper and aluminum: After the Sino - US talks, the copper and aluminum prices adjusted. Pay attention to macro risks [14]. - Alumina: The alumina market is in an oversupply pattern, and the 2601 contract is running at a low level. Pay attention to the interference of factors such as bauxite [14]. - Rebar and hot - rolled coils: The prices of rebar and hot - rolled coils fell. The fundamentals continued to improve, but there is short - term callback pressure [14][16]. - Ferroalloys: The double - silicon futures rebounded and then fell. The alloy market mainly follows the macro and black - series fluctuations [16]. - Lithium carbonate: The lithium carbonate futures price rose. It is recommended to be cautious about chasing up, focusing on the 84000 - 85000 pressure area [16]. 3.4 Options and Finance - Stock index futures and options: On October 30, the three major A - share indexes fell. Trend investors can pay attention to the strength - weakness arbitrage opportunities between varieties, and volatility investors can consider buying straddles or wide straddles to go long on volatility [16][17]. - Stock indexes: The Shanghai Composite Index may need time to stabilize above the 4000 - point mark and may fill the upward gap in the short term. It is recommended to allocate index futures contracts on dips [17].

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The report presents the latest prices, price changes, and percentage changes of various domestic chemical and agricultural product futures on October 30, 2025, compared to October 29, 2025. It also covers significant macro - events such as the Sino - US leaders' meeting and the Fed's interest rate cut, and provides morning meeting views on major futures varieties, including analysis of supply - demand fundamentals, price trends, and trading strategies [4][6][11]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 1. Futures Price Changes - **Chemical Products**: On October 30, 2025, among chemical products, crude oil rose 0.54% to 465.10, PVC rose 0.817% to 4,814.00, while glass fell 1.331% to 1,112.00, and 20 - number rubber fell 0.590% to 12,645.00 [4]. - **Agricultural Products**: Among agricultural products, yellow soybean No. 2 rose 0.327% to 3,683.00, and cotton yarn rose 0.378% to 19,940.00, while palm oil fell 0.181% to 8,826.00, and yellow soybean No. 1 fell 0.146% to 4,107.00 [4]. 2. Macro - news - **Sino - US Relations**: Chinese President Xi Jinping will meet with US President Trump in Busan, South Korea on October 30, 2025, to exchange views on Sino - US relations and common concerns [6]. - **Fed's Interest Rate Cut**: The Fed cut interest rates by 25 basis points to 3.75% - 4.00% on October 30, 2025, and will end balance - sheet reduction from December 1. There are significant differences within the Fed on future policies, which has affected the financial markets [6]. - **Corporate News**: NVIDIA's market value exceeded $5 trillion, and Bank of America Global Research raised its target price [7]. - **Domestic Policies**: China is further deepening capital market reform and opening up the financial sector. The State Administration of Foreign Exchange launched 9 policy measures to facilitate cross - border trade, and relevant departments issued action plans for urban commercial improvement [7]. 3. Morning Meeting Views on Major Varieties 3.1 Agricultural Products - **Peanuts**: On October 29, peanut futures closed slightly up, showing a narrow - range oscillation. The spot market has a situation of weak supply and demand. It is expected that the futures price will oscillate between 7,700 - 7,900, and it is recommended to wait and see [11]. - **Sugar**: On October 29, sugar futures showed a low - level rebound but were restricted by the 5,500 resistance level. The supply side has pressure, and the demand side is weak. It is recommended to operate with an oscillation mindset in the 5,450 - 5,520 range [11]. - **Corn**: On October 29, corn futures showed a narrow - range oscillation. The spot market has a slightly premium structure, with a loose supply situation. It is recommended to short at high prices and focus on the 2,100 support level [11]. - **Pigs**: The national average price of live pigs rose slightly. The supply pressure has eased, and the demand has increased. The futures market shows different trends in the near and far months, and it is expected to remain weak [11]. - **Eggs**: The spot price of eggs was stable with a slight decline. The futures market showed a low - level rebound, reflecting the market's expectation of the Double Eleven holiday. It is recommended to short in the short - term and conduct inter - month reverse spreads [11]. - **Cotton**: On October 29, cotton futures showed an upward oscillation. The supply is expected to be loose, and the demand is weak. It is expected to oscillate between 13,500 - 13,700 yuan/ton [11]. 3.2 Energy and Chemicals - **Urea**: The domestic urea market price is weakly stable. The supply pressure is expected to increase, and the demand has not improved significantly. The futures price will continue to be sorted at a low level [12]. - **Caustic Soda**: The market expectation is weak, and the caustic soda 2601 contract is under pressure. Attention should be paid to the performance of the lower support [12]. - **Coking Coal and Coke**: The price of coking coal has increased, and coke has started the third round of price increases. With the support of downstream demand, the double - coking market is strong and oscillating upward [12]. - **Pulp**: On October 29, pulp futures showed a narrow - range oscillation. The supply is loose, and the demand is weak. It is expected to oscillate at the bottom, and attention should be paid to the breakthrough direction of the 5,150 - 5,300 range [12]. 3.3 Industrial Metals - **Copper and Aluminum**: Supported by macro and supply - demand factors, copper and aluminum prices remain high, but attention should be paid to macro risks [15]. - **Alumina**: The alumina market is in an oversupply situation, and the 2601 contract is running at a low level. Attention should be paid to the interference of factors such as bauxite [15]. - **Rebar and Hot - rolled Coil**: The spot market trading of rebar and hot - rolled coil has warmed up, and the fundamentals are improving. With the boost of macro factors, the steel price is expected to continue to oscillate upward [15]. - **Ferroalloys**: The ferroalloy market follows the upward trend of double - coking, but the supply - demand fundamentals are weak. It is expected to oscillate widely [17]. - **Lithium Carbonate**: On October 29, the lithium carbonate futures price showed an upward oscillation. The demand is strong, and the price is expected to be strong in the short - term, but attention should be paid to the pressure from mine restart and warrant cancellation [17]. 3.4 Options and Finance - **Stock Index Futures and Options**: On October 29, the A - share market rose, and different stock index futures and options had different performance in terms of position, volume, and basis. It is recommended that trend investors pay attention to the strength - weakness arbitrage opportunities, and volatility investors consider buying straddles or wide straddles after the volatility decline [17]. - **Stock Market**: The A - share market showed a strong performance on October 29. After the Sino - US negotiation at the end of October, if there are no further negative factors, the market may break through the oscillation range. It is recommended to allocate stock index futures contracts during intraday pullbacks to avoid missing the market [18].

Report Summary 1. Industry Investment Rating No industry investment rating is provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints - The report presents the price changes of various commodities on October 29, 2025, compared to October 28, 2025, including chemicals, agricultural products, and more. It also covers macro - economic news and provides trading strategies for different commodities and financial products based on their fundamentals and market trends [4]. - Macroeconomic news shows positive developments in China - ASEAN cooperation, potential progress in Sino - EU trade talks, and China's stance on financial opening - up and economic policies. The performance of the A - share market and international stock markets is also analyzed [7][8][20][21]. 3. Summary by Category 3.1 Commodity Price Changes - **Chemicals**: On October 29, 2025, among chemicals, glass had the highest increase rate of 1.348% (from 1,113.00 to 1,128.00), while crude oil had the largest decline rate of - 0.994% (from 462.70 to 458.10) [4]. - **Agricultural Products**: Among agricultural products, soybean meal had the highest increase rate of 0.538% (from 2,975.00 to 2,991.00), and palm oil had the largest decline rate of - 1.496% (from 8,958.00 to 8,824.00) [4]. 3.2 Macroeconomic News - China and ASEAN signed the FTA 3.0 upgrade protocol, expanding cooperation in emerging fields [7]. - There will be a Sino - EU talk on rare earths, and China hopes for dialogue to solve trade differences [7]. - China is committed to financial opening - up, and the central bank will implement a moderately loose monetary policy [7]. - The revised Network Security Law will take effect on January 1, 2026, and the Environmental Protection Tax Law will include volatile organic compounds in the tax scope [8]. - The number of overseas travelers for tax - free shopping and the tax - free amount in China have increased significantly this year [8]. - The 8th China International Import Expo will be held from November 5th to 10th, with an expanded scale [8]. - China's soybean area and output are expected to remain high, and the number of breeding sows has decreased [8]. - China's wholesale and retail industries have shown growth in the first three quarters [8]. - The 2025 Hurun Rich List was announced, with Zhong Shanshan becoming the richest man in China [9]. 3.3 Commodity Trading Strategies - **Agricultural Products** - **Peanuts**: The price is expected to fluctuate between 7700 - 7900, and it is recommended to wait and see [13]. - **Sugar**: Consider selling call options at high prices, with a support level at 5450 yuan/ton [13]. - **Corn**: Observe the support in the 2100 - 2120 range [14]. - **Pigs**: The near - term futures are expected to be strong, and the long - term futures will remain weak [14]. - **Eggs**: Short - sell on the futures and conduct inter - month reverse arbitrage [16]. - **Cotton**: Wait and see, and consider going long if it breaks through 13600 yuan/ton [16]. - **Energy and Chemicals** - **Urea**: The UR2601 contract is expected to operate in the 1580 - 1670 yuan/ton range [16]. - **Caustic Soda**: The 2601 contract is under pressure [16]. - **Coking Coal and Coke**: They are expected to remain strong, with coking coal facing pressure around 1300 and coke around 1800 [16]. - **Industrial Metals** - **Copper and Aluminum**: Prices are expected to remain high, but beware of macro - risks [17]. - **Alumina**: The 2601 contract is operating at a low level [17]. - **Steel Products**: Steel prices are expected to fluctuate strongly, with rebar facing pressure around 3200 and hot - rolled coils around 3400 [17]. - **Ferroalloys**: They will maintain a wide - range fluctuating follow - up trend, and the industrial rebound hedging idea remains unchanged [19]. - **Lithium Carbonate**: Adopt a bullish strategy, with a support level at 80000 and a pressure level at 84000 [19]. - **Options and Finance** - **Stock Index Futures**: Trend investors can focus on inter - variety spread arbitrage opportunities, and volatility investors can consider buying straddles or wide straddles after the HO volatility decline [19]. - **Stock Index**: Although the Shanghai Composite Index broke through 4000 points, there is still a need for consolidation. Pay attention to the performance of the third - quarter reports of listed companies [20][21].

Report Overview - Report Title: "Sugar Market Cost Support Highlights, Long and Short Factors Intertwined in Volatility - Sugar Weekly Report from October 20 - 24, 2025" [1] - Author: Yang Jiangtao [1] - Professional Certificate Number: F03117249 [1] - Transaction Consultation Number: Z0022644 [1] - Contact Information: 0371 - 58620082 [1] Investment Rating - No investment rating information is provided in the report. Core View - The current sugar market is in a volatile stage supported by costs, with the balance of power between bulls and bears in a tug - of - war between increased supply (Brazil's sugar production increase + the start of the Northern Hemisphere's sugar production season) and weak demand (spot price cuts + reduced imports). The production cost line of 5420 yuan in Guangxi forms a key support, but there is a lack of upward momentum. It is expected that the sugar futures main contract will oscillate in the range of 5400 - 5480 yuan in the next 1 - 2 weeks [3] Content Summary by Section 1. Market Review 1.1 Weekly Review - Futures: The closing price of the No. 11 sugar continuous contract decreased by 3.42% from 15.5 to 14.97; the closing price of the Zhengzhou sugar main contract increased by 0.63% from 5412 to 5446 [5] - Spot: The spot prices in Nanning, Liuzhou, Kunming, and Rizhao Lingyunhai all decreased, with decreases ranging from 0.34% to 0.53% [5] - Basis: The basis between Liuzhou sugar and the main contract narrowed by 21.48% from 298 to 234 [5] - Warehouse Receipts: The number of warehouse receipts decreased by 2.77% from 8418 to 8185, while the effective forecast increased from 0 to 586. The total of warehouse receipts and effective forecasts increased by 4.19% from 8418 to 8771 [5] - Market Sentiment: The proportion of bullish sentiment towards Zhengzhou sugar increased by 5% to 20%, the proportion of bearish sentiment decreased by 5% to 50%, and the proportion of neutral sentiment remained unchanged at 30% [5] 1.2 Domestic Futures and Spot - No specific content is provided in the given text. 1.3 Raw Sugar Futures - No specific content is provided in the given text. 2. Fundamental Analysis 2.1 China's Sugar Production and Sales - No specific content is provided in the given text. 2.2 Production and Sales of Sugarcane Sugar in Major Chinese Regions - No specific content is provided in the given text. 2.3 Production and Sales of Beet Sugar in Major Chinese Regions - No specific content is provided in the given text. 2.4 China's White Sugar Industrial Inventory - No specific content is provided in the given text. 2.5 China's Sugar Imports and Exports - No specific content is provided in the given text. 2.6 Major Sugar Importing Countries of China - No specific content is provided in the given text. 2.7 China's Sugar Import Cost and Profit - For Thailand, the in - quota processing cost decreased by 2.64% to 4124 yuan/ton, the in - quota import profit increased by 4.99% to 1767 yuan/ton, the out - of - quota processing cost decreased by 2.72% to 5263 yuan/ton, and the out - of - quota import profit increased by 23.14% to 628 yuan/ton [30] - For Brazil, the in - quota processing cost decreased by 3.28% to 4040 yuan/ton, the in - quota import profit increased by 6.20% to 1851 yuan/ton, the out - of - quota processing cost decreased by 3.34% to 5154 yuan/ton, and the out - quota import profit increased by 25.55% to 737 yuan/ton [30] 3. International Market Fundamentals 3.1 Available Sugar Quantity in Brazil - No specific content is provided in the given text. 3.2 Sugarcane Crushing Volume in Brazil - No specific content is provided in the given text. 3.3 Sugar Production in Brazil - In the second half of September, Brazil's sugar production was 3.14 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 10.76% [3] 3.4 Ethanol Production in Brazil - No specific content is provided in the given text. 3.5 Sugar Imports and Exports in Brazil - No specific content is provided in the given text. 3.6 International Raw Sugar Premiums and Freight Costs - No specific content is provided in the given text.

Report Investment Rating - No investment rating information is provided in the report. Core View - In the short term, the upward space for cotton prices is limited, and they will fluctuate within a narrow range. New cotton harvest is at its peak, increasing hedging pressure. The textile industry's peak season is lackluster, with limited downstream demand orders. Domestic commercial inventories are at a historical low, cushioning price drops. Although costs have recovered, textile enterprises are still generally operating at a loss. The basis has slightly declined, and spot prices are firm. The rising seed cotton purchase price, increased processing costs, and adjusted production expectations support cotton prices, but the weak recovery of downstream demand restricts price increases [3]. Section Summaries 01 Market Review - **US Cotton Weekly Review**: US cotton fluctuated weakly, trading around 65 cents/pound. As of September 26, non - commercial long positions decreased by 751 to 69,367 contracts, non - commercial short net positions increased by 2,020 to 114,787 contracts, and non - commercial net positions decreased by 2,771 to - 45,420 contracts [9]. - **Zhengzhou Cotton Weekly Review**: Zhengzhou cotton rose under pressure, trading at 13,350 - 13,610 yuan/ton, with a Friday closing price of 13,540 yuan/ton, a weekly increase of 205 yuan or 1.54%. As of October 24, the registered and forecasted cotton warehouse receipts totaled 3,188 contracts, equivalent to 133,896 tons [10]. - **Cotton Textile Spot Weekly Data**: Spot prices were generally stable, but trading was light. The seed cotton purchase price has been rising since the start of the season, and the current price is 6.3 - 6.5 yuan/kg, providing some support for cotton prices. The overall spot basis has narrowed, and many cotton merchants have lowered their spot sales basis [12][14]. 02 Domestic Cotton Market - **Supply**: The China Cotton Association predicts that the 2025/26 cotton production will reach 721.6 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 8.3%. Xinjiang's output is expected to be 6.911 billion tons, a 9.2% increase, accounting for 95.8% of the national total. New cotton listing is slower than in previous years. In September 2025, China imported 95,000 tons of cotton, with Australia and Brazil being the main sources [17][25]. - **Demand**: Demand is weaker than in previous years. Domestic demand has no obvious positive factors, while exports have slightly improved. Weaving mills'开机率 has declined after the holiday, and they are purchasing raw materials on a wait - and - see basis [27][33]. - **Profit**: This week, the processing profit of ginning mills was 409 - 519 yuan/ton, and the immediate profit of spinning mills was - 950.8 - - 835.3 yuan/ton, showing a decline compared to last week [36]. - **Inventory**: As of the week of October 24, the national commercial cotton inventory was 1.4334 million tons, a weekly increase of 278,000 tons but 202,800 tons lower than last year. At the end of September, the industrial inventory of cotton textile enterprises was 845,500 tons, a decrease of 46,800 tons from the previous month [42]. 03 International Market - **Global Cotton Supply and Demand**: According to the USDA's September forecast, global cotton production in September was 25.62 million tons, a month - on - month increase of 230,000 tons. China's production increased by 218,000 tons to 7.076 million tons. Total consumption increased by 184,000 tons to 25.68 million tons, and the ending inventory decreased by 168,000 tons to 15.92 million tons [44]. - **US Cotton Export**: Due to the US government shutdown, most USDA reports have stopped being released [47]. - **US Cotton Growth Status**: The report does not provide detailed information on US cotton growth status.

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The macro - economic situation shows positive signs, with industrial enterprise profits growing and social logistics costs decreasing. The market sentiment is generally optimistic, but there are still uncertainties such as potential policy changes and external risks [8][9] - Different commodity futures have different trends. Some are in a state of shock, some are rising, and some are falling, which are affected by factors such as supply - demand relationship, seasonality, and macro - environment [6][12][13] - The A - share market is showing a strong performance, and the probability of the Fed cutting interest rates has increased, which will have an impact on the global market. However, there are still risks and uncertainties in the market [17][18][20] Summary by Relevant Catalogs Chemical Industry - Most chemical products' prices fluctuated on October 28, 2025. For example, PTA had a significant increase of 2.213%, while asphalt decreased by 0.637% [6] Agricultural Products - For peanuts, the supply is increasing but the demand is weak. The price is expected to oscillate between 7700 - 7900 yuan/ton. For sugar, the supply is abundant and the demand is in the off - season, with the price likely to continue to oscillate. For corn, the new grain pressure is significant, and the price has broken through the support level [12] Energy and Chemicals - Urea prices are showing a phased rebound, but the supply increase and high inventory may limit the upward space. For烧碱, the market expectation is weak. For double - coking (coke and coking coal), there is support under the macro - favorable sentiment, but the upward space may be restricted by steel mill production cuts [13][14] Industrial Metals - Copper and aluminum prices are running at a high level, supported by macro and supply - demand factors. Alumina is in an oversupply situation, and its contract is running weakly. The prices of rebar and hot - rolled coils are rising, and the alloy market is in a wide - range shock [15][16] Option Finance - On October 27, the A - share market was strong, and the three major stock index futures showed different trends. Trend investors can focus on the strength - weakness arbitrage opportunities between varieties, and volatility investors can consider buying straddle or wide - straddle strategies [17][18][20]

Report Summary 1. Industry Investment Rating No industry investment rating is provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints - The report presents the latest market data and trends in multiple sectors including chemicals, agriculture, macro - economy, and various financial products. It analyzes price movements, supply - demand relationships, and provides trading suggestions for different commodities and financial instruments based on current market conditions [4][7][12]. 3. Summary by Catalog 3.1 Chemicals - **Price Changes**: On October 24, 2025, among chemical products, crude oil rose by 2.197% to 469.80, fuel oil rose by 2.180% to 2,812.00, and 20 - number rubber rose by 1.609% to 12,630.00. Glass fell by 1.534% to 1,091.00, and coking coal fell by 0.596% to 1,251.00 [4]. 3.2 Agriculture - **Price Changes**: On October 24, 2025, cotton No.1 rose by 0.074% to 13,585.00, and cotton yarn rose by 0.151% to 19,850.00. Rapeseed oil fell by 0.543% to 9,704.00, and palm oil fell by 0.066% to 9,126.00 [4]. 3.3 Macro - Economy - **Policy and Event Updates**: The Fourth Plenary Session of the 20th Central Committee of the Communist Party of China released a communiqué with economic and social development goals for the "14th Five - Year Plan" period. China and the US will hold economic and trade consultations. The EU listed Chinese enterprises in the 19th round of sanctions against Russia, and China urged the EU to stop. The State - owned Assets Supervision and Administration Commission of the State Council held a symposium on the "14th Five - Year Plan" of central enterprises [7][8]. - **Economic Data**: In the first three quarters of 2025, the national total social electricity consumption reached 7.77 trillion kWh, a year - on - year increase of 4.6%. As of October 22, 2025, the number of subsidy applications for automobile trade - ins exceeded 10 million, with new energy vehicles accounting for 57.2% [8][9]. 3.4 Main Variety Morning Meeting Views - **Agriculture** - **Peanuts**: On October 23, the peanut futures closed at 7,818 yuan/ton. It is recommended to trade within the 7,700 - 7,900 range, focusing on the support at 7,800 [12]. - **Sugar**: On October 23, sugar futures closed at 5,457 yuan/ton. It is expected to fluctuate between 5,400 - 5,480 in the short term [12]. - **Corn**: On October 23, corn futures closed at 2,140 yuan/ton. Short - term light - position long positions can be considered after breaking through 2,130 [12]. - **Hogs**: The national average price of hogs was 11.74 yuan/kg, showing a weak and volatile trend [12]. - **Eggs**: The spot price of eggs was stable with a slight increase. The futures market is expected to remain weak [12]. - **Cotton**: On October 23, cotton futures closed at 13,575 yuan/ton. It is recommended to pay attention to the breakthrough of the 13,500 - 13,600 range [12]. - **Energy and Chemicals** - **Urea**: The domestic urea market price rebounded slightly. Supply pressure is expected to increase, and the upward space is limited [13]. - **Caustic Soda**: The market expectation is weak, and the 2601 contract is under pressure [13]. - **Coking Coal and Coke**: It is expected that the prices of coking coal and coke will continue to fluctuate within a range [13][15]. - **Industrial Metals** - **Copper and Aluminum**: Supported by macro and supply - demand factors, copper and aluminum prices remain high [17]. - **Alumina**: The 2601 contract is running weakly due to an oversupply situation [18]. - **Rebar and Hot - Rolled Coil**: Steel prices are supported at low levels, and the fundamentals are improving [18]. - **Ferroalloys**: The overall view is a wide - range fluctuation, and the industrial rebound hedging idea remains unchanged [20]. - **Lithium Carbonate**: The price has broken through the previous range. Short - term attention should be paid to the 80,000 yuan pressure level [20]. - **Options and Finance** - **Stock Index Futures**: On October 23, the A - share market rose, and the trading volume continued to shrink. Trend investors can focus on arbitrage opportunities, and volatility investors can consider buying straddles or wide - straddles [20][21].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided regarding the industry investment rating. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report The report presents a comprehensive overview of the financial market, including macro - economic news, price movements of various futures contracts, and investment suggestions for different sectors. It analyzes the supply - demand relationships, price trends, and potential risks in commodities such as agricultural products, energy and chemicals, industrial metals, and also provides insights into the stock index futures and option markets [3][6][10]. 3. Summaries by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Macro - economic News - Trump expects to reach a good trade agreement with China during the APEC meeting, but the meeting may be cancelled. China's Ministry of Foreign Affairs has no information to provide [6]. - China Fund Industry Association will release a solicitation draft for public offering fund performance comparison benchmark rules, and multiple fund managers have submitted a batch of proposed benchmark indices [6]. - National Bureau of Statistics released September unemployment data by age group, with the 16 - 24 age group at 17.7%, 25 - 29 at 7.2%, and 30 - 59 at 3.9% [6]. - Guangdong Province issued an action plan for AI - empowered high - quality development of the manufacturing industry, with 16 policy measures [6]. - "Energy - saving and New - energy Vehicle Technology Roadmap 3.0" was released, aiming for over 85% penetration of new - energy passenger vehicles by 2040 [7]. - Regional small and medium - sized banks have started a new round of deposit rate cuts, with a maximum reduction of 80 basis points [7]. - The total output value of China's geographic information industry in 2025 is expected to reach nearly one trillion yuan [7]. - In the first three quarters, the civil aviation industry's transport turnover, passenger volume, and cargo volume increased by 10.3%, 5.2%, and 14% year - on - year respectively [7]. - As of October 21, the US federal government debt exceeded $38 trillion, and the US government has been shut down for 22 days [7][8]. 3.2 Price Movements of Futures Contracts 3.2.1 Chemicals - On October 23, most chemical futures contracts showed price increases, such as natural rubber rising by 0.66%, asphalt by 0.616%, and crude oil by 0.425%. Glass and caustic soda showed price decreases [3]. 3.2.2 Agricultural Products - On October 23, some agricultural product futures contracts had price increases, like yellow soybean No. 2 rising by 0.391% and rapeseed meal by 0.433%. Others such as sugar, palm oil, and corn showed price decreases [3]. 3.3 Investment Suggestions for Different Sectors 3.3.1 Agricultural Products - Peanut: The market is in a weak and volatile state. With increased supply and weak demand, it is recommended to wait and observe, focusing on the quality of peanuts from production areas and oil mills' purchasing strategies [10]. - Sugar: With supply pressure from Brazil and the northern hemisphere's new - season production, but supported by low domestic inventory, it is suggested to go long with a light position using 5400 as the stop - loss level [10]. - Corn: With new grain listing and inventory accumulation expectations, it is recommended to short on rebounds, focusing on the support at 2120 yuan [10]. - Eggs and hogs: Although there is short - term spot price support, the supply exceeds demand, and it is recommended to use the inter - month reverse spread strategy [10][11]. - Cotton: The market is in a state of weak supply and demand. It is expected to oscillate between 13500 - 13600 yuan/ton, and attention should be paid to the purchase price of seed cotton and downstream demand changes [11]. 3.3.2 Energy and Chemicals - Urea: With increasing supply and weak demand, the price rebound space is limited, and attention should be paid to export policies and off - season storage purchases [11]. - Caustic soda: The market expectation is weak, and the 2601 contract is under pressure. Attention should be paid to the performance of the lower support [11]. - Coking coal and coke: They are expected to oscillate within a range, with coking coal between 1050 - 1300 and coke between 1550 - 1800 [11][13]. - Logs: After the price breaks through the previous low, attention should be paid to the pressure between 825 - 830, and there is a risk of import volume suppressing price rebounds [12]. - Pulp: Although the supply is abundant, there is cost support. It is recommended to wait and observe, and go long with a light position if it effectively stands above the support [12]. - Offset printing paper: With increasing supply and inventory, it is recommended to go long at low prices with 4180 as the support, but beware of inventory pressure [12]. 3.3.3 Industrial Metals - Copper and aluminum: Supported by macro and supply - demand factors, the prices remain high, but macro risks should be watched out for [13][15]. - Alumina: The fundamental situation is in surplus, and the 2601 contract is weakly operating. Attention should be paid to factors such as bauxite [15]. - Rebar and hot - rolled coil: The prices are oscillating at a low level. Attention should be paid to relevant information from the Fourth Plenary Session [15]. - Ferroalloys: The supply exceeds demand in the medium - term, but the prices are rebounding this week. A wide - range oscillation view is maintained, and an industrial rebound hedging strategy is recommended [15]. - Lithium carbonate: With increasing supply and demand, the price has broken through the previous range. Attention should be paid to the pressure at 78000 yuan, and beware of supply - side risks [17]. 3.3.4 Option Finance - Stock index futures and options: In the current market, investors should pay attention to the spread arbitrage opportunities between varieties. Volatility investors can consider buying straddles or wide - straddles to bet on increased volatility after the decline in volatility. For the stock market, different strategies should be adopted according to whether the market volume increases or decreases [17][18][19].