作 者：杨江涛 执业证书编号：F03117249 交易咨询编号：Z0022644 联 系 方 式：0371-58620082 本周观点 | 品种 | 逻辑驱动 | 策略及风险提示 | | --- | --- | --- | | | 【供应】：新棉加工接近尾声，截止12月25日24时，累计公检量达560.89万吨， | | | | 但日均公检降至 5.5 万吨。商业库存回升，但上年度低库存+ 新年度低进口，整 | | | | 体供应增幅有限。 | | | | 【需求】：本周轧花厂加工利润1013~1078元/吨，纺纱厂即期利润-1351.5~-507 | | | | 元/吨。 | | | | 【库存】：库存位于往年同期偏高。 | | | | 【成本】：成本较高在14700~15000及以上，成本较低在14600以下，较高成本等 | | | | 待套保，较低成本顺价出货 | 震荡偏强。重点 | | 棉花 | 【基差】：基差略有走强，现货维稳。 | 关注政策和需求 | | | 【总结】：国际市场，周初因出口数据改善有限短暂回调，但随后在最新美棉签 | 端新市场信息。 | | | 约与装运数据明显好转，以及外围金融和 ...

持续去库&淡季需求受限，钢价震荡运行 ——周报20251222 投 资 咨 询 编 号 ：Z0020978 研究所 ：林娜 联 系 方 式 ：0371-58620083 电 子 邮 箱 ：linna_qh@ccnew.com 执 业 证 书 编 号 ：F03099603 | | 本期观点——螺纹钢、热卷 | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 品种 | 主要逻辑 | 策略建议 | 风险点 | | | 供应：螺纹钢周产量181.68万吨（环比+1.62%，同比-16.94%），全国热卷周产 | | | | | 量291.91万吨（环比-5.44%，同比-6.65%）。 | | | | | 消费：螺纹钢表观消费208.64万吨（环比+2.73%，同比-4.98%），热卷表观消费 | | | | | 298.28万吨（环比-4.39%，同比-4.46%）。 | | | | | 库存：螺纹总库存452.54万吨（环比-5.62%，同比+12.29%），热卷总库存 | 区间震荡 | | | | 390.72万吨（环比-1.60%，同比+26.33%）。 | | | | | | 螺纹钢 | 宏 ...

本周观点 | 品种 | 逻辑驱动 【现货市场】：现货价格普遍下跌，柳州现货价周环比下跌1.88%至5230元/吨， | 策略及风险提示 预计未来1-2周， 白糖价格在供应 压力主导下，将 继续维持弱势震 荡探底格局，关 | | --- | --- | --- | | | 市场情绪悲观，看跌比例高达70%。基差走强至142元/吨，周环比激增1320%，反 映期货跌幅大于现货。 【期货市场】：主力合约价格周内下跌2.29%，收于5088元/吨，跌破前期支撑。 持仓量大幅增加21.8%至52.3万手，显示空头增仓压力显著，价格波动呈现单边下 行特征。 【供应方面】：国内新榨季全面展开，南方糖厂集中开榨，新糖上市供应压力持 | 注成本线附近的 支撑力度。 风险提示： 1.原糖价格企稳 反弹，若国际糖 价因北半球生产 | | | 续。仓单及有效预报合计5101张，周环比激增142.79%，印证新糖注册压力。 | 不及预期等因素 | | | 【需求方面】：终端采购谨慎，需求表现平淡。市场看跌情绪浓厚，看跌比例环 | 止跌回升，可能 | | | 比增长27.27%至70%，显示下游对后市普遍不乐观。 | 带动国内超跌反 | ...

碳酸锂市场强势突破，供应扰动与需求分化 共振 --碳酸锂周报（2025年12月15日-12月19日） 作 者：杨江涛 执业证书编号：F03117249 交易咨询编号：Z0022644 联 系 方 式：0371-58620082 本周观点 | 品种 | 逻辑驱动 | 策略及风险提示 | | --- | --- | --- | | | 【现货市场】：电池级碳酸锂现货周度上涨7.57%至103000元/吨，工业级上涨 | | | | 7.63%至101550元/吨，市场情绪高涨。但期货升水结构显著，基差环比扩大 | | | | 326.4%至-8400元/吨，显示现货跟涨乏力。 | 预计未来1-2周， | | | 【期货市场】：主力合约周度上涨14.0%至111400元/吨，周内最高触及113500元/ | 碳酸锂市场在情 | | | 吨，波动剧烈。持仓量环比增长5.1%，周内一度增至672711手，显示多空博弈加 | 绪与基本面背离 | | | 剧。 | 下，高位震荡加 | | | 【供应方面】：国内碳酸锂产能利用率维持83.52%高位，但氢氧化锂产能利用率 | 剧，上行空间或 | | | 环比下降2.44%至4 ...

中原期货研究咨询部 晨会纪要 2025 第（236）期 发布日期：2025-12-26 | 化工 | 主力合约 | 2025/12/26 | 2025/12/25 | 涨跌 | 涨跌幅/% | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | | 8:00 | 15:00 | | | | | 焦煤 | 1,107.50 | 1,124.00 | -16.50 | -1.468 | | | 焦炭 | 1,707.00 | 1,739.00 | -32.0 | -1.840 | | | 天然橡胶 | 15,715.00 | 15,730.00 | -15.0 | -0.095 | | | 20号胶 | 12,765.00 | 12,695.00 | 70.0 | 0.551 | | | 塑料 | 6,355.00 | 6,390.00 | -35.0 | -0.548 | | | 聚丙烯PP | 6,220.00 | 6,266.00 | -46.0 | -0.734 | | | (PTA) | 5,216.00 | 5,152.00 | 64.0 | 1.242 | | | P ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided in the content. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The market may have entered a small year - end rally. Overseas liquidity has improved with the Bank of Japan's dovish rate hike and the Fed's dovish stance. A - share liquidity has also been enhanced by large - scale ETF subscriptions and the trend of RMB appreciation. The operation strategy is to focus on the policy mainline, use dips for layout, take profits during rallies, and keep a flexible position [18]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Chemical and Agricultural Product Price Changes - **Chemical Products**: On December 23, 2025, among chemical products, PVC had the largest increase with a rise of 2.679% to 4,714.00 yuan, while yellow soybean 2 had the largest decrease in the agricultural products sector, dropping 7.489% to 3,434.00 yuan [4]. 3.2 Macro - economic News - The central bank introduced a one - time credit repair policy for small - amount personal overdue information. Vanke's 20 - billion - yuan bond extension plan was rejected again, but it won a 30 - trading - day grace period. Precious metals soared on December 22, with gold breaking through $4,440 per ounce and silver exceeding $69 per ounce [6]. - The State Council held a meeting on the preparation of the "15th Five - Year Plan". China's December LPR remained unchanged for the 7th consecutive month. The National People's Congress heard a report on the rectification of audit problems in the 2024 central budget [7]. - The Central Economic Work Conference deployed multiple key reform tasks. The draft of the Childcare Service Law was submitted for its first review [8]. 3.3 Morning Meeting Views on Main Varieties 3.3.1 Agricultural Products - **Sugar**: On December 22, the sugar price rose 0.75%. In the short term, it may show a volatile and slightly stronger pattern, with support near the cost line. One can consider going long on dips [11]. - **Corn**: The corn futures price was flat on December 22. It has entered a volatile pattern, and short - term interval trading can be considered [11]. - **Pigs**: The current hog futures market shows a contradiction between weak reality and strong expectations. There is a weak rebound opportunity, and one can focus on the reverse spread of monthly spreads [11]. - **Eggs**: The egg market is still bearish, and the reverse spread of monthly spreads can be held [11]. - **Cotton**: On December 22, the cotton price rose 0.39%. In the short term, positive factors dominate, and one can go long on dips with support at 14,000 yuan [13]. 3.3.2 Energy and Chemicals - **Urea**: The domestic urea market price is stable. The supply - demand pattern shows a double - reduction, and the UR2605 contract may run in the range of 1,650 - 1,750 yuan [12]. - **Caustic Soda**: The caustic soda market is in an oversupply situation, and the main contract continues to be weak [14]. - **Coking Coal and Coke**: The coking coal supply is relatively loose, and the coking coal and coke market tends to be volatile [13]. - **Logs**: The log market shows a pattern of weak supply and demand, and the price oscillates between 760 - 800 yuan [14]. - **Pulp**: The pulp price has broken through the previous range, but the supply exceeds demand. One should not chase the high price and can pay attention to the support near 5,550 - 5,580 yuan [14]. - **Offset Printing Paper**: The offset printing paper price has broken through the previous pressure level. One should not chase the high and can pay attention to the support at 4,000 yuan [14]. 3.3.3 Non - ferrous Metals - **Copper and Aluminum**: The copper and aluminum market is strong, and they continue to run at high levels, but macro risks should be noted [14]. - **Alumina**: The alumina market is in an oversupply situation and continues to be weak [15]. - **Rebar and Hot - Rolled Coil**: The rebar and hot - rolled coil market maintains an interval oscillation pattern, with rebar in the range of 3,000 - 3,200 yuan and hot - rolled coil in the range of 3,200 - 3,300 yuan [15]. - **Ferroalloys**: The ferroalloy market follows the trend of the black series. One should not chase the high price at the current high level [15]. - **Lithium Carbonate**: The lithium carbonate futures price has broken through the previous range. The short - term upward trend is strong, but the risk of high - level fluctuations increases [15]. 3.3.4 Options and Finance - **Stock Index Futures and Options**: On December 22, the A - share market was strong. Trend investors can focus on the strength - weakness arbitrage opportunities among varieties, and volatility investors can short volatility through the short straddle strategy [16]. - **Stock Index**: The A - share market has shown signs of stabilization. The market may have entered a small year - end rally. One should focus on the policy mainline and keep a flexible position [18].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Views of the Report - This week, the global market enters the "Christmas mode", with stock markets in the US, Europe, and Hong Kong closed on Christmas Day. Key economic data from China, the US, and the UK will be released, and the selection of the Fed Chairman is highly anticipated. Gold and crude oil trends are in focus. Huawei and Leapmotor will hold product and anniversary press conferences respectively [7]. - The "zero - tariff" imported car policy in the Hainan Free Trade Port has been officially implemented, but it only applies to enterprises engaged in transportation and tourism in Hainan [7]. - The first L3 - level autonomous driving license in China was issued in Chongqing, marking that China may become the first country to scale - release L3 - level autonomous driving [7]. - The Central Economic Work Conference emphasizes innovation - driven development and the construction of a unified national market. The National Market Regulatory Administration has issued a compliance guide for the automotive industry's price behavior [8]. - As of the end of the first half of the year, the total trust asset scale of the Chinese trust industry exceeded 30 trillion yuan, ranking third in the asset management market [8]. - Bohai Oilfield's cumulative oil and gas equivalent production in 2025 exceeded 40 million tons, setting a new record [9]. - Fed's Harker tends to keep interest rates stable before spring and opposes recent rate cuts due to inflation concerns [9]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Chemicals | Commodity | Price on 2025/12/22 (8:00) | Price on 2025/12/21 (15:00) | Change | Change Rate | |---|---|---|---|---| | Coking Coal | 1,104.00 | 1,108.00 | -4.0 | -0.361% | | Coke | 1,735.50 | 1,597.50 | 138.0 | 8.638% | | Natural Rubber | 15,170.00 | 15,190.00 | -20.0 | -0.132% | | 20 - grade Rubber | 12,330.00 | 12,360.00 | -30.0 | -0.243% | | Plastic | 6,320.00 | 6,320.00 | 0 | 0% | | Polypropylene PP | 6,208.00 | 6,213.00 | -5.0 | -0.080% | | PTA | 4,980.00 | 4,882.00 | 98.0 | 2.007% | | PVC | 4,594.00 | 4,652.00 | -58.0 | -1.247% | | Asphalt | 2,940.00 | 2,909.00 | 31.0 | 1.066% | | Methanol | 2,167.00 | 2,148.00 | 19.0 | 0.885% | | Ethylene Glycol | 3,746.00 | 3,738.00 | 8.0 | 0.214% | | Styrene | 6,443.00 | 6,402.00 | 41.0 | 0.640% | | Glass | 1,039.00 | 1,041.00 | -2.0 | -0.192% | | Crude Oil | 431.90 | 426.60 | 5.30 | 1.242% | | Fuel Oil | 2,415.00 | 2,390.00 | 25.0 | 1.046% | | Soda Ash | 1,174.00 | 1,176.00 | -2.0 | -0.170% | | Pulp | 5,610.00 | 5,506.00 | 104.0 | 1.889% | | LPG | 4,092.00 | 4,099.00 | -7.0 | -0.171% | | Caustic Soda | 2,164.00 | 2,164.00 | 0 | 0% | | ЬХ | 7,222.00 | 7,070.00 | 152.0 | 2.150% | [4] 3.2 Agricultural Products | Commodity | Price on 2025/12/22 (8:00) | Price on 2025/12/21 (15:00) | Change | Change Rate | |---|---|---|---|---| | Yellow Soybean No.1 | 4,090.00 | 4,052.00 | 38.0 | 0.938% | | Yellow Soybean No.2 | 3,674.00 | 3,676.00 | -2.0 | -0.054% | | Bean Meal | 2,738.00 | 2,735.00 | 3.0 | 0.110% | | Rapeseed Meal | 2,322.00 | 2,323.00 | -1.0 | -0.043% | | Egg | 7,718.00 | 7,712.00 | 6.0 | 0.078% | | Rapeseed Oil | 8,717.00 | 8,744.00 | -27.0 | -0.309% | | Palm Oil | 8,276.00 | 8,292.00 | -16.0 | -0.193% | | White Sugar | 5,109.00 | 5,088.00 | 21.0 | 0.413% | | Yellow Corn | 2,200.00 | 2,192.00 | 8.0 | 0.365% | | Corn Starch | 2,502.00 | 2,502.00 | 0 | 0% | | Cotton No.1 | 14,050.00 | 14,015.00 | 35.0 | 0.250% | | Cotton Yarn | 20,150.00 | 20,050.00 | 100.0 | 0.499% | [4] 3.3 Morning Meeting Views on Major Varieties 3.3.1 Agricultural Products - **Sugar**: On December 19, the sugar futures closed at 5088 yuan/ton, showing a weak trend. Supply pressure is the core driver. It is recommended to maintain a bearish view, paying attention to the price around the cost line. Resistance is at 5100 - 5110 yuan/ton [11]. - **Corn**: On December 19, the corn futures closed at 2192 yuan/ton, with prices oscillating at the bottom. Supply pressure is emerging, while demand is divided. It is advisable to wait and see, focusing on the support at 2180 yuan/ton and the resistance at 2200 yuan/ton [11]. - **Pigs**: The national average price of live pigs increased slightly. The futures market is in a weak - reality and improving - expectation situation. There are weak rebound opportunities, and it is advisable to use the calendar - spread reverse arbitrage strategy [12]. - **Eggs**: The spot price in Hebei was stable with a slight decline. The market is bearish, and it is recommended to hold the calendar - spread reverse arbitrage [12]. - **Cotton**: On December 19, the cotton futures closed at 14015 yuan/ton, showing a strong - oscillating trend. Supply pressure is short - term, and demand is expected to improve. It is recommended to build long positions at dips near the new support level of 13900 - 13950 yuan/ton [13]. 3.3.2 Energy and Chemicals - **Urea**: The spot market price is stable. Supply has decreased due to environmental protection, and demand support from compound fertilizer enterprises has weakened. The UR2605 contract is expected to operate in the range of 1650 - 1750 yuan/ton [13]. - **Caustic Soda**: The short - term supply - demand pattern is stable, and the price is in a weak - stable adjustment. There is a short - term short - covering rebound [13]. - **Coking Coal**: The production capacity utilization rate has increased, and supply is relatively loose. Steel mills' maintenance has weakened the replenishment demand for coking coal and coke, which are expected to be in a weak - oscillating state [13]. - **Log**: The futures price is in a weak state. Supply is decreasing, but demand is weak. It is recommended to wait and see or try short positions at high prices [14]. - **Pulp**: The market presents a situation of strong expectations and weak reality. The price is high, and there is a risk of a high - level correction. It is necessary to be cautious when chasing long positions [14]. - **Double - offset Paper**: The price is in a weak - oscillating state. Supply is excessive, and demand is weak. It is recommended to consider short positions at high prices near 3980 yuan/ton [14]. 3.3.3 Non - ferrous Metals - **Copper and Aluminum**: The market sentiment has cooled, and prices are adjusting at high levels. Pay attention to macro risks [15]. - **Alumina**: The supply - demand pattern is in surplus, and there is a short - term short - covering rebound [15]. - **Rebar and Hot - rolled Coil**: The fundamental pressure is not significant, and prices are expected to oscillate in the range of 3000 - 3200 yuan/ton for rebar and 3200 - 3350 yuan/ton for hot - rolled coil [15]. - **Ferroalloys**: The supply - demand drive for ferroalloys at the end of the year is weak. Prices follow the trend of the black - series market, and it is not advisable to chase high prices [15]. - **Lithium Carbonate**: The futures price has broken through the 110,000 - yuan mark. Supply may increase, but demand from the energy - storage sector is strong. It is recommended to be cautiously bullish [15]. 3.3.4 Options and Finance - **Stock Index Options**: On December 19, the three major A - share indices rose. Trend investors can focus on the strength - weakness arbitrage opportunities among varieties, and volatility investors can sell straddles to short volatility [20]. - **Stock Index**: On December 19, the three major indices closed higher. It is expected that the index will oscillate in a range at the end of the year. It is advisable to buy on dips and take profits on rallies, keeping a flexible position [22][23].

中原期货研究咨询部 晨会纪要 2025 第（229）期 发布日期：2025-12-17 | 中原期货研究咨询部 | 0371-58620081 | | --- | --- | | 0371-58620083 | | | 公司官方微信 | | 公司官方微信 1 中原期货研究咨询部 | 化工 | 主力合约 | 2025/12/17 | 2025/12/16 | 涨跌 | 涨跌幅/% | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | | 8:00 | 15:00 | | | | | 焦煤 | 1,061.00 | 1,067.50 | -6.50 | -0.609 | | | 焦炭 | 1,517.00 | 1,514.50 | 2.50 | 0.165 | | | 天然橡胶 | 15,105.00 | 15,170.00 | -65.0 | -0.428 | | | 20号胶 | 12,370.00 | 12,385.00 | -15.0 | -0.121 | | | 塑料 | 6,530.00 | 6,543.00 | -13.0 | -0.199 | | | 聚丙烯PP ...

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content Core Viewpoints of the Report - The steel market is currently in a weak and volatile state due to suppressed demand during the off - season. The prices of steel products, raw materials, and related futures contracts have generally declined. However, the fundamentals of finished steel are not under significant pressure, and the downward space for prices is limited. For different varieties: - **Rebar and Hot - Rolled Coil**: They show production cuts and inventory reduction. The demand for rebar has declined significantly, while the demand for hot - rolled coil shows certain resilience. Rebar should continue to focus on the support around 3000 yuan/ton, and hot - rolled coil should focus on whether it can stabilize around 3200 yuan/ton [3]. - **Iron Ore**: The supply has increased, the demand has continued to decline, and port inventory has reached a new high. The price is under overall pressure, and the support below is temporarily around 730 - 750 yuan/ton [4]. - **Coking Coal and Coke**: The overall supply has increased slightly, and the downstream transactions have improved. The coking plant and port coking coal inventories have accumulated, suppressing prices. After the second round of coke price cuts, there is still an expectation of further cuts, but the downward space for the disk price is limited. Coking coal should focus on the support around 1000 yuan/ton [5]. Summary of Each Section According to the Table of Contents 01 Market Review - **Price Changes**: Raw material price drops have dragged down steel prices. Spot and futures prices of rebar and hot - rolled coil have generally declined, and the prices of imported iron ore and coke have also decreased. The basis of rebar has slightly increased [9]. - **Inventory Changes**: The five major steel products have continued to reduce inventory, with significant reduction in rebar social inventory and a slight decrease in factory inventory. The reduction in hot - rolled coil inventory has accelerated [9]. 02 Steel Supply and Demand Analysis - **Supply**: Rebar production has decreased significantly, with both blast furnace and electric furnace production cuts. The national hot - rolled coil production has also decreased, and the blast furnace operating rate has decreased month - on - month, while the electric furnace operating rate has remained stable. The profits of rebar and hot - rolled coil have decreased month - on - month [12][17][22]. - **Demand**: The demand for rebar and hot - rolled coil has both declined slightly, with a more obvious decline in rebar demand [31]. - **Inventory**: Rebar has continued to reduce inventory, with factory and social inventories both falling. Hot - rolled coil has slightly reduced inventory, with factory inventory increasing and social inventory decreasing [36][40]. - **Downstream Market**: In the real estate market, the transaction volume of commercial housing and the land market have both increased month - on - month. In the automotive market, the production and sales in November have continued to grow both month - on - month and year - on - year [45][48]. 03 Iron Ore Supply and Demand Analysis - **Supply**: The arrival volume of iron ore at ports has increased significantly month - on - month, while the shipments from Australia and Brazil have decreased slightly [53]. - **Demand**: The daily production of hot metal has continued to decline, and the port ore handling volume has remained stable [59]. - **Inventory**: The iron ore port inventory has reached a new high, while the steel enterprise iron ore inventory has decreased [64]. 04 Coking Coal and Coke Supply and Demand Analysis - **Supply**: The operating rate of domestic coking mines has decreased slightly month - on - month, and the Mongolian coal customs clearance has remained at a relatively high level [71]. - **Demand**: The coking coal auction transaction rate has increased, but the daily production of hot metal has continued to decline, and the steel mill replenishment power is limited [76]. - **Inventory**: The port coking coal inventory has continued to increase, and the coking plant inventory has rebounded. The coke port inventory has continued to decline, and the coking plant inventory has rebounded [84][90]. - **Spot Price**: The second round of coke price cuts has been implemented, and the game between steel and coke enterprises continues [96]. 05 Spread Analysis - The basis of rebar and hot - rolled coil has both widened, and the 1 - 5 spreads of rebar and hot - rolled coil have both slightly widened. The coil - to - rebar spread has fluctuated narrowly, and the 1 - 5 spread of coking coal has slightly widened [102][106].

碳酸锂市场强势突破，供应扰动与成本支撑 博弈 --碳酸锂周报2025年12月8日-12月12日 作 者：杨江涛 执业证书编号：F03117249 交易咨询编号：Z0022644 联 系 方 式：0371-58620082 本周观点 | 品种 | 逻辑驱动 | 策略及风险提示 | | --- | --- | --- | | | | 预计未来1-2周， | | | 【现货市场】：电池级碳酸锂现货价格周内上涨5.1%至95750元/吨，工业级上涨 | 碳酸锂价格将在 | | | 5.24%至94350元/吨，市场情绪随期货波动。基差维持贴水结构，周环比扩大 | 高位宽幅震荡， | | | 85.85%至-1970元/吨，显示期货涨幅领先于现货。 | 上方10万元整数 | | | 【期货市场】：主力合约周度上涨6.03%，收于97720元/吨，周内振幅达11.5%， | 关口压力显著， | | | 波动剧烈。持仓量周环比增加13.5%至63.6万手，显示多空分歧加剧，资金博弈激 | 下方支撑参考 | | | 烈。 | 95000-97000元/ | | | 【供应方面】：国内碳酸锂产能利用率环比大幅提升10.86%至 ...