2 0 2 5 / 0 9 作者：刘诗瑶 从业资格证号：F3041949 交易咨询证号：Z0019385 邮箱：liushiyao@zjtfqh.com 审核：李文涛 交易咨询证号：Z0015640 我公司依法已获取期货交易咨询业务资格 联系人：周小鸥 从业资格证号：F03093454 邮箱：zhouxiaoou@zjtfqh.com ◼ 美国经济衰退概率大幅上升； ◼ 中美在能源路径上的背离，正成为一种"错位机遇"； ◼ 在新估值周期的轮动下，中国资产，尤其是港股与A股中的科技与消费板块，正成为资金的主要配置与观察对象； ◼ 正确看待国内反内卷问题； ◼ 基于全球、海外地区以及中美精炼铜、铜元素供需强弱表现，可见精炼铜在2025年较难出现明显去库迹象，但由于海外地区精炼铜紧平衡，且铜元素 表现短缺，将吸引诸如中国及美国表现过剩地区的货源调配。 ◼ 预期LME与CMX以及SHFE之间，依然存在一定套利空间。海外地区表现偏强，预计内外比价或走扩，同时L-C价差在假设无关税影响下，依然将维持低 位运行，较难回到关税前正常水平。中国与美国之间精炼铜及铜元素表现基本相当，较难出现操作空间，建议存在保值需求的企业，可适 ...

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints - According to the USDA June report, in the 25/26 period, there will be significant increases in the production of global soybeans, rapeseed, and sunflower seeds. The export volume of soybeans will increase the most, and the crushing volume of soybeans, rapeseed, and sunflower seeds will also rise. In the 24/25 period, the stock-to-use ratios of global rapeseed and peanuts will increase, while those of soybeans and sunflower seeds will decline. Among the four major global oils and fats in the 25/26 period, the production of soybean oil, palm oil, and sunflower oil will increase significantly, with a small increase in rapeseed oil [4][8][11][15][18]. - In the 24/25 period, the global production of oils and fats will increase by 6.5 million tons to 235 million tons. Edible consumption will increase by 4.3 million tons to 164 million tons, and industrial consumption will increase by 1.02 million tons to 65.16 million tons. The total supply increment is less than the consumption increment, leading to a decline in the ending inventory and stock-to-use ratio in the 25/26 period. In the 25/26 period, the production growth rate is slightly higher than the consumption growth rate, and the industrial consumption growth rate is lower than the edible consumption growth rate [33][35][36]. - In the 2025 - 26 period, the planned rapeseed sown area in Canada will be 8.8 million hectares, slightly lower than the five - year average. The production is expected to be 18 million tons, and the supply is expected to be 19.4 million tons, a 6% year - on - year decrease. The rapeseed crushing volume is expected to decrease slightly to 11 million tons, and exports are expected to drop to a four - year low, while the inventory is expected to reach 2 million tons. In the EU, the rapeseed yield per unit area has been revised downwards again. In Australia, the rapeseed sown area is expected to decrease by 1% to 3.4 million hectares, and the production is expected to decline by 6% to 5.7 million tons. The yield per unit area is revised down to 1.69 tons per hectare. In the 25/26 period, the rapeseed production in Russia will be 4.5 - 4.7 million tons, and in Ukraine, it will drop from 3.7 million tons to 3.4 million tons. The total production of rapeseed in the EU, Canada, Australia, Russia, and Ukraine will reach 50.02 million tons, slightly higher than that in 2024 [41][42][46][50][55]. - The production of Malaysian palm oil is slightly higher than expected, with increases in Sarawak, Sabah, and Peninsular Malaysia. The export in May exceeded expectations. The production of Indonesian palm oil in March increased by 16.02% month - on - month, and exports increased by 2.68% month - on - month. In March, Indonesia started implementing the B40 biodiesel policy, and the palm oil consumption reached a record high for the same period. As of April 24, the biodiesel consumption in Indonesia this year was 4.44 billion liters. The Indonesian Ministry of Energy and Mineral Resources requires the implementation of B50 biodiesel in early 2026, but there is a need to increase production capacity [61][66][67][72]. - The soybean - palm oil price spread in India first declined and then rebounded. The soybean crushing profit in South America has deteriorated, and the export of South American soybean oil will significantly decrease after July. The front - end trading of palm oil supply pressure is basically over, and the subsequent rebound amplitude will be determined by the degree of demand improvement and crude oil prices [97][201]. - The actual domestic production capacity of the US soybean crushing industry has increased from about 2.23 billion bushels per year in early 2023 to about 2.55 billion bushels per year in early 2025, a 14% increase. If the unannounced expansion plans are realized, the total production will increase to over 2.78 billion bushels per year by 2030. The USDA June report shows that the US soybean crushing volume in the 24/25 period is 2.42 billion bushels, and in the 25/26 period, it is 2.49 billion bushels [161]. - Due to the geopolitical conflict, the strength of US crude oil has driven up the price of oils and fats. The increase in the production of new - crop rapeseed globally in the 25/26 period is limited, and the domestic rapeseed oil in the near - term remains strong. The South American soybean crushing profit has deteriorated, and the export of South American soybean oil will decline significantly after July. If the US biodiesel RVO is lower than expected, it is advisable to buy on dips after the correction of domestic oils and fats. After September, as the new - crop rapeseed and sunflower oil are listed, the price of oils and fats may enter a weak and volatile state [201]. Summary by Related Catalogs Oilseeds - **Production**: In the 25/26 period, the production of global soybeans, rapeseed, and sunflower seeds will increase significantly. In the 24/25 period, the stock - to - use ratios of global rapeseed and peanuts will increase, while those of soybeans and sunflower seeds will decline [4][15]. - **Export**: In the 25/26 period, the export volume of soybeans will increase the most [8]. - **Crushing**: In the 25/26 period, the crushing volume of global soybeans, rapeseed, and sunflower seeds will increase [11]. Oils and Fats - **Production**: In the 24/25 period, the global production of oils and fats will increase by 6.5 million tons to 235 million tons. In the 25/26 period, the production of soybean oil, palm oil, and sunflower oil will increase significantly, with a small increase in rapeseed oil [18][33]. - **Consumption**: Edible consumption will increase by 4.3 million tons to 164 million tons, and industrial consumption will increase by 1.02 million tons to 65.16 million tons in the 24/25 period. The industrial consumption growth rate is lower than the edible consumption growth rate in the 25/26 period [33][36]. - **Inventory and Stock - to - Use Ratio**: The total supply increment is less than the consumption increment, leading to a decline in the ending inventory and stock - to - use ratio in the 25/26 period [33]. Rapeseed - **Canada**: In the 2025 - 26 period, the planned rapeseed sown area will be 8.8 million hectares, slightly lower than the five - year average. The production is expected to be 18 million tons, and the supply is expected to be 19.4 million tons, a 6% year - on - year decrease. The crushing volume is expected to decrease slightly to 11 million tons, exports are expected to drop to a four - year low, and the inventory is expected to reach 2 million tons [41]. - **EU**: The rapeseed yield per unit area has been revised downwards again [42]. - **Australia**: The rapeseed sown area is expected to decrease by 1% to 3.4 million hectares, and the production is expected to decline by 6% to 5.7 million tons. The yield per unit area is revised down to 1.69 tons per hectare [46][50]. - **Russia and Ukraine**: In the 25/26 period, the rapeseed production in Russia will be 4.5 - 4.7 million tons, and in Ukraine, it will drop from 3.7 million tons to 3.4 million tons [55]. Palm Oil - **Malaysia**: The production is slightly higher than expected, with increases in Sarawak, Sabah, and Peninsular Malaysia. The export in May exceeded expectations [61]. - **Indonesia**: The production in March increased by 16.02% month - on - month, and exports increased by 2.68% month - on - month. In March, Indonesia started implementing the B40 biodiesel policy, and the palm oil consumption reached a record high for the same period [66][67]. India The soybean - palm oil price spread first declined and then rebounded [97]. US - **Soybean Crushing**: The actual domestic production capacity of the soybean crushing industry has increased from about 2.23 billion bushels per year in early 2023 to about 2.55 billion bushels per year in early 2025, a 14% increase. The USDA June report shows that the US soybean crushing volume in the 24/25 period is 2.42 billion bushels, and in the 25/26 period, it is 2.49 billion bushels [161]. - **Biodiesel**: The US biodiesel RVO is still in the proposal stage. The final RVO quantity may be lower than the proposal. Whether imported raw materials are used or not, the consumption of US soybean oil will increase, but the export supply of US soybean oil to the world will decrease [201]. Domestic Oils and Fats Due to the geopolitical conflict, the strength of US crude oil has driven up the price of oils and fats. The increase in the production of new - crop rapeseed globally in the 25/26 period is limited, and the domestic rapeseed oil in the near - term remains strong. If the US biodiesel RVO is lower than expected, it is advisable to buy on dips after the correction of domestic oils and fats. After September, as the new - crop rapeseed and sunflower oil are listed, the price of oils and fats may enter a weak and volatile state [201].

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings - The investment rating for coking coal and coke is "Neutral". The sub - ratings for coking coal in different aspects are: "Neutral - bearish" for spot, "Neutral" for warehouse receipt cost, "Neutral - bearish" for supply, "Neutral" for demand, "Neutral" for basis, and "Neutral" for inventory. For coke, the sub - ratings are: "Neutral - bearish" for spot, "Neutral" for warehouse receipt cost, "Neutral - bearish" for supply, "Neutral" for demand, "Neutral" for profit, and "Neutral" for inventory [3][4] 2. Core Views Coking Coal - The spot market for coking coal is weakening, with an increase in online auction failures. The supply side is expanding, with domestic coal production normal and Mongolian coal customs clearance back to normal levels, leading to a loose supply. The demand side has high - level downstream coking and steel enterprise operations, but weak demand expectations in the off - season, with only on - demand purchases. Overall, the fundamentals lack significant drivers. The market turnaround requires actual coal mine production cuts, which are unlikely in the short term. Without macro - level positive news, coking coal is expected to continue a slow decline to find a bottom [3] Coke - Last week, the first round of price cuts for coke was implemented, and steel mills intend to propose a second - round cut this week, with the market expecting 2 - 3 rounds of price cuts. Currently, the overall profitability of the coking industry is acceptable, and coking enterprises are highly motivated to operate, with the capacity utilization rate of independent coking enterprises at 75.7%, a week - on - week increase of 0.3%. The daily average iron - making output of 247 steel mills is 244.8 tons, a week - on - week decrease of 0.8 tons. Steel mills have good profits, and the decline in iron - making output is limited. Some steel mills are controlling coke purchases, and the inventory reduction of coking enterprises has slowed down. Overall, the supply and demand of coke are loose. Although the iron - making output is at a high level, the decline puts pressure on coke prices, and there is still room for price decline in the off - season, with a possible second - round price cut in the near future [4] 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Coking Coal Spot - The spot market continues to weaken, with the prices of some coal types dropping by 20 - 40 yuan/ton. The price of low - sulfur main coking coal in Anze, Shanxi has fallen to 1230 (- 40) yuan/ton, and the price of medium - sulfur main coking coal in Jinzhong is 1100 (-) yuan/ton. Mongolian coal downstream is pressuring prices for purchases, the port inventory is increasing, the shipment pressure is high, the traders' sentiment is deteriorating, and the market transaction price is continuously falling, with the price of Mongolian No. 5 raw coal around 780 - 800 yuan/ton [3][8][14] Warehouse Receipt Cost - The mainstream coking coal warehouse receipt is around 940 yuan/ton, and the low - price warehouse receipt is below 900 yuan/ton. The 09 contract on the futures market is at a discount [3][33] Supply - The coal mine capacity utilization rate has increased to 88.7% last week, a week - on - week increase of 0.3%. The capacity utilization rate in Shanxi has slightly increased to 92.3%, a week - on - week increase of 0.2%. Most coal mines in the production areas are operating normally, and the operations are basically stable. The average daily customs clearance of Ganqimaodu Port for Mongolian coal last week was 907 trucks [3][47] Demand - Coking and steel enterprises are operating at a high level and are currently making on - demand purchases [3] Basis - The futures market is fluctuating downward, the spot market is weakening, and the 09 contract on the futures market is at a discount [3] Inventory - Most coal mines do not have significant inventory pressure. With the increase in customs clearance and arrivals, the inventory at Mongolian coal ports and terminals is accumulating. Downstream coking and steel enterprises have high - level operations but mainly consume existing inventory and make on - demand purchases [3] Coke Spot - Last week, the first round of price cuts for coke was implemented. Currently, some steel mills plan a second - round cut, and the market expects 2 - 3 rounds of price cuts. The quasi - first - grade coke at Rizhao Port is priced at around 1290 yuan/ton, a week - on - week decrease of 10 yuan/ton, and the quasi - first - grade wet - quenched coke in Shanxi is priced at around 1150 yuan/ton [4][86] Warehouse Receipt Cost - The wet - quenched coke warehouse receipt is around 1430 yuan/ton, and the futures market is at par [4][91] Supply - Coking enterprises are profitable and highly motivated to operate, with production continuing to increase [4] Demand - The daily average iron - making output of 247 steel mills is 244.8 tons, a week - on - week decrease of 0.8 tons. The iron - making output remains at a high level, steel mills have good profits, and it is not easy to reduce production in the short term. There may be a slight decline in iron - making output in late May, but it will still be at a relatively high level [4][102] Profit - The profit of independent coking enterprises tracked by Steelhome is 7 (+ 6) yuan/ton. Coking enterprises in Shanxi, Hebei, Shandong and other places are profitable [4] Inventory - Steel mills are operating at a high level, but have weak demand expectations in the off - season. Some steel mills are controlling raw material purchases, and the inventory reduction of coking enterprises has slowed down [4]

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content. 2. Core View of the Report - The report analyzes various aspects of Huangmaizhu, including its prices, production volumes, and market shares. It also provides data on related products such as wheat and Shanmaizhu [3][4]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Huangmaizhu - **Price**: The price of Huangmaizhu is -4550 per ton, with a change of 6.53 yuan per ton [3]. - **Production Volume**: The production volume of Huangmaizhu in different periods shows fluctuations. For example, in May 2025, the production volume is 75,500 tons [4]. - **Market Share**: The market share of Huangmaizhu also varies over time. In May 2025, the market share of Huangmaizhu is 21% [4]. Wheat - **Price**: The price of wheat shows changes in different periods. For example, from May to September 2025, the price change is +774.7 - 472 yuan per ton [3]. - **Production Volume**: The production volume of wheat in different periods also shows fluctuations. For example, in May 2025, the production volume is 523 thousand tons [3]. Shanmaizhu - **Production Volume**: The production volume of Shanmaizhu in different periods shows fluctuations. For example, in May 2025, the production volume is -1922 tons [3].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating There is no information provided regarding the report industry investment rating in the given content. 2. Core View of the Report The report comprehensively analyzes the palm oil market and related industries, covering aspects such as production, price, weather, and profit. It presents data on international palm oil production, prices of various oils, import and processing profits, weather conditions in palm oil - producing regions, and biodiesel processing and blending profits, as well as the demand - side situation of the oil market [4][8][11][128]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Palm Oil Production and Market Data - MPOB data shows that in the 4th period, the palm oil production situation includes aspects such as the production of smallholders and large - scale plantations, with a 14% increase in production in certain areas compared to the previous period, and a 20% increase in the 4th period compared to the 3rd period in some regions [4]. - The prices of international soybeans from different origins (Ukraine, Brazil, Germany, etc.) and various international oils (Russian sunflower oil, Indonesian CPO, etc.) are presented, with price fluctuations over different time points from March to May 2025 [8][12]. - The FOB price spreads of different oils, such as the price spreads between Malaysian and Indonesian RBD Olein, and between Argentine soybean oil and Indonesian CPO, are analyzed [15][17]. 3.2 Import and Processing Profits - The palm oil on - the - plate profit for different shipping dates (from October to May) is presented, showing profit fluctuations over time [30]. - The import and processing profits of Brazilian soybean oil and Canadian rapeseed are also analyzed, with historical data from 2021 - 2025 and the average value from 2021 - 2024 [31]. 3.3 Weather Conditions in Palm Oil - Producing Regions - Weather data for multiple palm oil - producing regions in Malaysia (Sabah, Sarawak, Pahang, Johor) and other areas (Kalimantan, Sumatra, Jambi, Riau) are provided, including soil moisture, average weekly temperature, daily rainfall, and rainfall and temperature forecasts [38][51][65]. 3.4 Biodiesel - The processing profit and blending profit of US biodiesel are analyzed, with historical data from 2007 - 2025 and the average value from 2007 - 2024 (for processing profit) and 2021 - 2024 (for blending profit) [129][131]. 3.5 Demand - Side Situation - The weekly trading volume of different oils (palm oil, rapeseed oil, soybean oil) is presented, showing the trading volume changes from April 15 to May 9, 2025 [141][142].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided in the given content. 2. Core Viewpoints - The crude oil market is in a low - level shock. Recently, the absolute price of crude oil has marginally rebounded, and the monthly spread has rebounded periodically. The hype of Iran's supply cut is the core reason for this round of strength. Currently, it is mainly based on expected trading. From a configuration perspective, long - term contracts can be partially over - allocated. [3] - The US Treasury has imposed the fourth round of sanctions on Iran this year. This round of sanctions is more precise, and the sanctions on Shandong Luqing and Huizhou Port have been intensified. Sanctions have shifted from path - based to buyer - based, which is an escalation of sanctions. The arrival of Iranian oil has been affected. [3] - The US has also strengthened sanctions on Venezuela. The impact of current policies on Venezuela is neutrally evaluated. [3] - Other fundamentals remain in a periodically improving state. After the spring maintenance, the seasonal start - up of refineries has begun to pick up, and the purchasing demand in the US and Europe has gradually emerged. If the upward driving force shifts from the supply side to the demand side, some positive arbitrage operations can be selectively carried out. [3] 3. Section - by - Section Summaries 3.1 Market Influencing Factors - **OPEC Production**: OPEC's compensation production cut plan has been released. Conservatively assessing the compensation production cut intensity, sources claim that OPEC + may plan a second production increase in May, so the probability of an increase in supply is relatively high [4]. - **Macro**: The macro - environment remains weak, and the turning point of sentiment should be monitored [4]. - **SPR**: The US SPR repurchase plan has stopped. Trump said that the stockpiling step will be restarted in the low - oil - price range [4]. - **Geopolitics**: The US - Russia negotiation continues, and there are periodic conflicts in the Middle East. Overall, there are no new variables [4]. - **Downstream Demand**: The widening of downstream profits has driven the recovery of refinery start - up. Attention should be paid to the purchasing demand brought about by the subsequent increase in refinery start - up [4]. - **Shale Oil**: Last week, the production was 13.57 million barrels per day, and the number of rigs remained unchanged at 486. In the medium - to - long term, the boost to production is limited [4]. 3.2 Supply - Demand Balance Table - **Production**: From 2023Q1 to 2025Q4, the total production shows an overall upward trend, with fluctuations in some quarters. OPEC production, NGL production, non - OPEC production, OECD production, and non - OECD production also have their own trends and changes [5]. - **Demand**: The total demand also fluctuates within a certain range from 2023Q1 to 2025Q4. OECD demand and non - OECD demand have their own characteristics [5]. - **Call On OPEC**: It shows different values in each quarter from 2023Q1 to 2025Q4, reflecting the demand for OPEC oil [5]. - **Surplus**: The surplus or deficit situation varies in different quarters, with positive and negative values indicating surplus and deficit respectively [5]. 3.3 Sanctions on Iran - As of now, the US has imposed four rounds of sanctions on Iran. The latest one on March 20 targeted buyers of Iranian goods, sanctioning Shandong Luqing Petrochemical, Huizhou Dayawan Huaying Petrochemical Terminal, 8 oil tankers, and 19 entities [7][9]. - Iran's seaborne exports have not decreased significantly. Exports to China have decreased sharply, and some goods have been transferred to floating storage. If the US wants to further reduce Iran's exports, it needs to further escalate sanctions [9]. 3.4 Sanctions on Venezuela - US President Trump said that he would impose a 25% tariff on all imports from any country that buys oil or gas from Venezuela and impose new tariffs on Venezuela itself. The US has extended Chevron's operating license for its joint - venture oil company in Venezuela until May 27, 2025 [13]. - Currently, Venezuela's production is about 1 million barrels per day. If tariffs are further increased, production may further decrease, and it may exacerbate the shortage of heavy - oil in the US. However, the short - term impact on the market may be limited [13]. 3.5 OPEC + Compensation Production Cut - On March 20, OPEC + announced the latest compensation plan schedule, which is the first update this year. The future compensation production cut of these countries is about 250,000 barrels per day [15]. - The largest compensation - production - cut countries are Iraq, Kazakhstan, and Russia. Considering the easing of US - Russia relations, the actual compensation production cut may be less than expected [15]. 3.6 Geopolitical Situation - The Riyadh negotiation between the US and Ukraine has ended, mainly discussing whether the Russian president agrees to resume the Black Sea Grain Initiative. After Trump's call with Putin, a cease - fire agreement on air infrastructure was reached, but the implementation remains to be seen [19]. - In the Middle East, the US continues to air - strike the Houthi rebels in Yemen. Trump has warned Iran not to support the Houthi rebels. Israel also continues to harass the Gaza area. Currently, there are no major geopolitical variables, but there will be some marginal disturbances [19]. 3.7 Fundamentals - In terms of fundamentals, the seasonal recovery of US refinery start - up continues. The latest refinery start - up rate has reached 86.9%, rising month - on - month. Commercial crude oil inventories continue to accumulate, and the Cushing crude oil inventory has significantly decreased [25]. - In the PADD1 area, the start - up of a major refinery has not recovered, but the overall warming trend of North American refineries continues [25]. 3.8 Spot Market - In the North Sea spot market, the recent discount has gradually improved. The latest CFD and DFL are 1.02 and 0.79 US dollars per barrel respectively, which is in a relatively high - neutral range [26]. 3.9 Spread Situation - As of March 25, the WTI near - term spread is 0.47 US dollars per barrel, and the 1 - 6 spread is 2.4 US dollars per barrel; the Brent near - term spread is 0.63 US dollars per barrel, and the 1 - 6 spread is 2.7 US dollars per barrel; the SC near - term spread is - 2.8 yuan per barrel [33]. 3.10 Positioning Situation - In the week of March 18, WTI long - terms increased by 4,305 lots, short - terms increased by 19,790 lots, and net long - terms decreased by 15,480 lots [49][50]. - In the week of March 18, Brent long - terms increased by 37,100 lots, short - terms decreased by 11,200 lots, and net long - terms increased by 48,310 lots [52][53].

Monetary Policy Insights - The Federal Reserve maintained the federal funds rate target range at 4.25%-4.50%, aligning with market expectations[5] - The pace of balance sheet reduction (QT Taper) will slow from $25 billion to $5 billion per month starting April 1, while MBS reduction remains at $35 billion per month[5] - The median GDP growth forecast for 2025 was downgraded from 2.1% to 1.7%, and the unemployment rate forecast was adjusted from 4.3% to 4.4%[5] Inflation and Economic Outlook - The PCE inflation forecast for 2025 was revised up from 2.5% to 2.7%, with core PCE inflation rising from 2.5% to 2.8% due to tariff impacts[5] - The Fed's approach has shifted from preemptive rate cuts to a data-dependent strategy, indicating potential delays in response to economic downturns[11] - Current economic indicators, such as a stable unemployment rate at 4.1%, suggest that the economy remains in reasonable condition despite inflation concerns[10] Global Economic Context - The U.S. liquidity situation is tight, with the Fed's total assets reduced to $6.7 trillion, returning to pre-pandemic levels[7] - China's economic challenges are characterized by deflation rather than inflation, with net exports contributing 30% to GDP in 2024, the highest since the 2008 financial crisis[12] - The need for proactive monetary policy adjustments in China is emphasized, particularly in light of potential U.S. economic downturns and tariff impacts[13]

Economic Policy Insights - Trump emphasizes high tariffs as a means to boost the economy, referencing McKinley's success with similar policies[2] - McKinley’s tariff policies, including the 1890 McKinley Tariff Act, significantly raised import duties to protect domestic industries[3] - The U.S. manufacturing sector's GDP share has declined from over 11.7% in 2013-2014 to around 10%-10.4% from 2020-2023, indicating challenges in revitalizing domestic manufacturing[5] Historical Context and Comparisons - McKinley’s era was characterized by the U.S. as a rising market, contrasting with today's status as a global leader[5] - The U.S. gained overseas territories post-Spanish-American War, marking its emergence as a global power under McKinley[4] - Trump's actions, such as threats of tariffs against Canada and Mexico, reflect a desire to emulate McKinley’s protectionist stance[5] Strategic Implications for China - The current geopolitical climate may provide China with opportunities to expand its market and resources amidst U.S. pressures[6] - The effectiveness of U.S. sanctions against China hinges on maintaining alliances with Europe and Asia, which may be strained by current conflicts[6] - Historical lessons suggest that China should seek alliances to counterbalance U.S. dominance, similar to the strategies employed during the Three Kingdoms period in China[6]

Summary of Conference Call Company and Industry Involved - The conference call discusses Zijin Mining Group, a company involved in the mining industry, particularly in copper and gold mining, and its recent inclusion in the U.S. Department of Homeland Security's list related to forced labor allegations in Xinjiang, China. Core Points and Arguments 1. **Impact of U.S. Sanctions**: Zijin Mining's subsidiaries in Xinjiang have been added to a list by the U.S. Department of Homeland Security, which has caused stock price fluctuations. The company believes this sanction will not significantly impact its operations as it does not have direct sales to the U.S. [1][4][12] 2. **Nature of the Sanction**: The sanctions are considered to be of a lower level compared to other sanctions imposed by the U.S. on Chinese companies. The primary effect is on the ability to sell products to the U.S., but Zijin does not have significant exposure in this area. [3][4] 3. **Employee Welfare**: The company claims that it provides competitive wages to its employees in Xinjiang, which are higher than the local average, and that many employees take pride in working for Zijin. [2][4] 4. **Geopolitical Risks**: The company acknowledges that geopolitical tensions may lead to increased prices for mining products due to supply chain disruptions. However, it emphasizes the importance of continuing its international expansion despite these risks. [9][10] 5. **Investment Strategy**: Zijin plans to diversify its investments, focusing on surrounding countries and reducing reliance on any single market, particularly in light of potential risks from U.S. sanctions. [10][12] 6. **Capital Structure Development**: The company is working on building a capital system to enhance its market position and leverage its brand for acquisitions in the mining sector. [16][17] 7. **Response to Investor Concerns**: The management reassures investors that the company will not divest from Xinjiang operations, viewing the region as a valuable asset despite external pressures. [12][15] 8. **Future Projects**: Zijin is involved in various international projects and is actively managing its assets to ensure growth and stability. [21][22] Other Important but Possibly Overlooked Content 1. **Limited U.S. Exposure**: The company has minimal direct sales to the U.S. and does not foresee significant indirect impacts from the sanctions. [6][11] 2. **Strategic Partnerships**: Zijin has been acquiring stakes in other mining companies, which is part of its strategy to enhance its influence and operational capabilities in the industry. [17][19] 3. **Market Reactions**: The recent sanctions have caused some investor anxiety, leading to market adjustments, but the company believes this presents a potential buying opportunity for investors. [5][13] 4. **Operational Stability**: Despite the sanctions, the company reports that its operations in Xinjiang remain stable and unaffected. [15][20]

Group 1: Market Overview - The US dollar has strengthened significantly, leading to a correction in non-ferrous metals, with zinc showing relatively small adjustments due to strong supply contradictions[2] - The current zinc price is under pressure from weak terminal demand and inventory accumulation expectations, indicating a potential downward trend in the valuation center of zinc[2] Group 2: Supply and Demand Dynamics - Zinc smelters are recovering slowly, maintaining low monthly production levels, with limited recovery space on the supply side[2] - Total zinc supply for November 2024 is projected at 54.10 million tons, while total consumption is expected to be 52.60 million tons, resulting in a surplus of 1.50 million tons[5] Group 3: Price and Profitability - The average smelting profit has increased to approximately -2000 yuan per ton, with domestic smelting profits rising to 1500 yuan per metal ton[8] - The current processing fee for domestic zinc ore has increased by 100 yuan to an average of 1350 yuan per metal ton, reflecting tight supply conditions[39] Group 4: Inventory Trends - As of the latest report, the total zinc inventory in seven regions has increased by 0.74 million tons year-on-year, reaching 12.74 million tons[19] - LME zinc delivery inventory reported at 242,000 tons, with a decrease of 1,200 tons from the previous trading day, indicating a slight reduction in overseas inventory[19]