Report Summary 1. Investment Rating No investment rating for the industry is provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints - SCFIS is stabilizing, with the main contract rising and then falling, and the near - month contract maintaining basis repair. If there is a callback today, adding positions can be considered [2]. - Amid geopolitical conflicts and tariff fluctuations, the game is difficult, and it is recommended to participate with a light position or stay on the sidelines [5]. - Short - term, the market may rebound. Long - term, it is recommended to take profits when the contracts rise and wait for a callback to stabilize before judging the subsequent direction [6]. 3. Summary by Content a. Shipping Indexes - On July 21, SCFIS (European route) was 2400.50 points, down 0.9% from the previous period; SCFIS (US West route) was 1301.81 points, up 2.8% [3]. - On July 21, NCFI (composite index) was 1147.96 points, down 5.75% from the previous period; NCFI (European route) was 1440.25 points, up 0.35%; NCFI (US West route) was 1181.87 points, down 0.40% [3]. - On July 21, SCFI (composite index) was 1646.90 points, down 86.39 points from the previous period; SCFI (European route) was 2079 USD/TEU, down 1.00%; SCFI (US West route) was 2142 USD/FEU, down 2.4% [3]. - On July 18, CCFI (composite index) was 1303.54 points, down 0.8% from the previous period; CCFI (European route) was 1803.42 points, up 4.5%; CCFI (US West route) was 941.65 points, down 8.4% [3]. b. Market Situation and Influencing Factors - Trump continues to impose tariffs on multiple countries, mainly in Southeast Asia, hitting re - export trade. Some shipping companies have announced freight rate increases. The tariff negotiation date has been postponed to August 1 [5]. - The slight decline in SCFIS may be due to doubts about the implementation of the announced freight rate increase in August [5]. - There are geopolitical factors such as the Gaza cease - fire negotiation in Doha and the Iranian - European issue regarding the "rapid restoration of sanctions" [7]. c. Contract Information - On July 21, the main contract 2510 closed at 1592.7, down 2.35%, with a trading volume of 69,300 lots and an open interest of 51,200 lots, a decrease of 186 lots from the previous day [5]. - The daily limit for contracts 2508 - 2606 is adjusted to 18%, the margin is adjusted to 28%, and the daily opening limit for all contracts 2508 - 2606 is 100 lots [6]. d. Trading Strategies - Short - term: The market may rebound. Risk - takers are advised to go long on contract 2510 with a light position below 1300 (already with a profit margin of over 300). If there is a further pullback today, adding positions can be considered. Consider shorting contract EC2512 with a light position above 1950 [6]. - Arbitrage: In the context of international situation turmoil, the structure is mainly positive arbitrage, with large fluctuations. It is recommended to stay on the sidelines or try with a light position [6]. - Long - term: It is recommended to take profits when the contracts rise and wait for a callback to stabilize before judging the subsequent direction [6].

Industry Investment Ratings - Iron ore: Upward [2] - Coking coal and coke: Upward [2] - Rolled steel and rebar: Bullish [2] - Glass: Upward [2] - Soda ash: Bullish [2] - CSI 300 Index Futures/Options: Sideways [4] - SSE 50 Index Futures/Options: Rebound [2] - CSI 500 Index Futures/Options: Upward [4] - CSI 1000 Index Futures/Options: Upward [4] - 2-year Treasury Bonds: Sideways [4] - 5-year Treasury Bonds: Sideways [4] - 10-year Treasury Bonds: Rebound [4] - Gold: Bullish sideways [6] - Silver: Bullish [6] - Pulp: Sideways with a bullish bias [6] - Logs: Bullish sideways [6] - Soybean oil: Sideways correction [6] - Palm oil: Sideways correction [6] - Rapeseed oil: Sideways correction [8] - Soybean meal: Sideways with a bullish bias [8] - Rapeseed meal: Sideways with a bullish bias [8] - Soybean No. 2: Sideways with a bullish bias [8] - Soybean No. 1: Sideways with a bullish bias [8] - Live pigs: Sideways with a bearish bias [8] - Rubber: Sideways [10] - PX: On the sidelines [10] - PTA: On the sidelines [10] - MEG: On the sidelines [10] - PR: On the sidelines [10] - PF: Sideways with a bearish bias [10] Core Views - The anti-involution policy has boosted the sentiment of the black market, but the long-term supply-demand surplus pattern of iron ore remains unchanged. The coking coal and coke market is expected to be bullish in the short term, and the steel and glass markets are supported by macro and policy factors. The stock index futures market shows a mixed trend, and the bond market is expected to rebound slightly. The precious metals market is expected to be bullish, and the pulp and log markets are expected to be bullish sideways. The oil and fat market may correct in the short term, and the agricultural products market shows a mixed trend. The soft commodities market is expected to be sideways, and the polyester market is on the sidelines [2][4][6][8][10] Summary by Categories Black Industry - Iron ore: The global iron ore shipment volume increased, and the supply is still abundant. The iron ore port inventory increased slightly, and the short-term fundamentals are acceptable. The long-term supply is expected to increase, and the demand is relatively low. The price has broken through the previous high and is expected to be bullish [2] - Coking coal and coke: After the second round of price increases, the cost pressure of coke remains, and the market is expected to be bullish. The current fundamentals are healthy, and the price is expected to be bullish in the short term. The coking plant's operation is stable, and the supply is slightly tight. The downstream demand is weak, but the steel mill's procurement enthusiasm has increased [2] - Rolled steel and rebar: The anti-involution policy has boosted the supply-side sentiment, and the steel industry's stable growth expectation has pushed up the market sentiment. The construction material demand has declined in the off-season, but the profit of the five major steel products is acceptable, and the supply-demand contradiction is not prominent. The total demand is expected to be low, and the price is supported by macro and policy factors [2] - Glass: The anti-involution trading may continue, and the macro environment is neutral to bullish. The demand for glass deep processing orders has weakened, but the speculative demand is strong. The supply is expected to increase, and the pressure remains. The downstream inventory is low, but the rigid demand has not recovered. The long-term demand is difficult to increase significantly, and the price is expected to be bullish in the short term [2] Financial Industry - Stock index futures/options: The previous trading day, the CSI 300 Index rose 0.67%, the SSE 50 Index rose 0.28%, the CSI 500 Index rose 1.01%, and the CSI 1000 Index rose 0.92%. The construction materials and engineering machinery sectors saw capital inflows, while the education and banking sectors saw capital outflows. The European leaders' visit to China and the stable LPR have boosted the market sentiment. The market risk aversion has eased, and it is recommended to hold long positions in the stock index [4] - Treasury bonds: The yield of the 10-year Treasury bond increased by 1bp, and the market interest rate was stable. The central bank conducted 170.7 billion yuan of 7-day reverse repurchase operations, with a net withdrawal of 5.55 billion yuan. The bond market is expected to rebound slightly, and it is recommended to hold long positions in Treasury bonds [4] Precious Metals Industry - Gold: The pricing mechanism of gold is shifting from the traditional real interest rate to central bank gold purchases. The currency, financial, and hedging attributes of gold are prominent. The US debt problem and the trade tension have supported the price of gold. The Fed's interest rate and tariff policies may be short-term disturbances, and the price is expected to be bullish sideways [6] - Silver: The price of silver is expected to be bullish. The inflation data shows resilience, and the market uncertainty before the new tariff deadline has increased the demand for hedging funds. The Fed's interest rate cut expectation in September has supported the price of silver [6] Light Industry - Pulp: The spot market price of pulp is rising, but the cost is falling, which weakens the support for the price. The papermaking industry's profitability is low, and the demand is in the off-season. The anti-involution policy has boosted the market sentiment, and the price is expected to be sideways with a bullish bias [6] - Logs: The daily出库 volume of logs has increased, and the cost has risen, which strengthens the support for the price. The supply pressure is not large, and the anti-involution policy has boosted the market sentiment. The price is expected to be bullish sideways [6] Oil and Fat Industry - Soybean oil, palm oil, and rapeseed oil: The production of Malaysian palm oil decreased in June, but the inventory increased. The export may slow down in July. The production of US biodiesel is increasing, which supports the demand for soybean oil. The domestic inventory of the three major oils is rising, and the supply is abundant. The demand is in the off-season, but the biodiesel expectation has boosted the price. The price may correct in the short term [6][8] Agricultural Products Industry - Soybean meal, rapeseed meal, soybean No. 2, and soybean No. 1: The estimated yield of US soybeans has been reduced, but the end-of-year inventory has increased. The growth of US soybeans is good, and the consumption of soybean meal is expected to increase. The domestic supply of soybeans is abundant, and the price is expected to be sideways with a bullish bias [8] - Live pigs: The average trading weight of live pigs is decreasing, and the price has risen slightly but is expected to decline. The supply of live pigs is increasing, and the consumption demand is restricted by high temperatures. The slaughtering enterprise's operating rate is expected to decline slightly [8] Soft Commodities Industry - Rubber: The raw material supply of natural rubber is tight due to rainfall, and the price has risen. The tire industry's capacity utilization rate has recovered, but the growth is restricted by the market demand. The inventory of natural rubber is increasing, and the price is expected to be sideways [10] Polyester Industry - PX: The geopolitical situation has eased, which has pressured the oil price. The short-term supply of PX is tight, and the price follows the oil price [10] - PTA: The cost is sideways, and the supply has increased. The downstream polyester factory's operating rate has decreased slightly, and the medium-term supply-demand is expected to weaken. The price follows the cost in the short term [10] - MEG: The recent arrival volume is small, and the port inventory has decreased slightly. The terminal demand is weak, and the supply pressure has eased. The medium-term supply-demand is expected to be balanced. The cost has rebounded, and the price is expected to be bullish sideways [10] - PR: The cost is supportive, but the downstream demand is rigid. The polyester bottle sheet market is expected to be sorted out narrowly [10] - PF: The support is weak, and the industry supply pressure is large. The polyester staple fiber market is expected to be sideways with a bearish bias [10]

Report Overview - Report Date: July 22, 2025 [1] - Report Type: Container Shipping Daily Report - Research Group: Shipping Research Team 1. Industry Investment Rating - No industry investment rating is provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints - SCFIS is stabilizing, with the main contract rising and then falling, and the near - month contract continuing to repair the basis. If there is a callback today, consider adding positions [2]. - Amid geopolitical conflicts and tariff uncertainties, the game is difficult, and it is recommended to participate with a light position or wait and see [5]. - The short - term market may mainly rebound, and different strategies are proposed for different contracts [6]. 3. Summary by Relevant Content 3.1 Shipping Indexes - On July 21, the Shanghai Export Container Settlement Freight Index (SCFIS) for the European route was 2400.50 points, down 0.9% from the previous period; for the US West route, it was 1301.81 points, up 2.8% [3]. - The Ningbo Export Container Freight Index (NCFI) on July 18: the composite index was 1147.96 points, down 5.75%; the European route was 1440.25 points, up 0.35%; the US West route was 1181.87 points, down 0.40% [3]. - The Shanghai Export Container Freight Index (SCFI) on July 21: the composite index was 1646.90 points, down 86.39 points; the European line price was 2079 USD/TEU, down 1.00%; the US West route was 2142 USD/FEU, down 2.4% [3]. - The China Export Container Freight Index (CCFI) on July 18: the composite index was 1303.54 points, down 0.8%; the European route was 1803.42 points, up 4.5%; the US West route was 941.65 points, down 8.4% [3] 3.2 Economic Data - Eurozone's June manufacturing PMI preliminary value was 49.4, service PMI was 50 (2 - month high), and composite PMI was 50.2. The Sentix investor confidence index was 0.2 [3]. - China's Caixin manufacturing PMI in June was 50.4, up 2.1 points from May [3]. - US June Markit manufacturing PMI preliminary value was 52, service PMI was 53.1 (2 - month low), and composite PMI was 52.8 (2 - month low) [3] 3.3 Market Situation - Trump continued to impose tariffs on multiple countries, mainly in Southeast Asia, hitting re - export trade. Some shipping companies announced price increases. The tariff negotiation date was postponed to August 1. The spot market price range was set, with small price increases to test the market, and the market rebounded slightly [5]. - On July 21, the main contract 2510 closed at 1592.7, down 2.35%, with a trading volume of 69,300 lots and an open interest of 51,200 lots, a decrease of 186 lots from the previous day [5]. 3.4 Strategies - Short - term strategy: The short - term market may rebound. Risk - takers are advised to go long on the 2510 contract below 1300 (already with a profit margin of over 300). If it continues to decline today, consider adding positions. Consider shorting the EC2512 contract above 1950 [6]. - Arbitrage strategy: In the context of international situation instability, with a positive spread structure and large fluctuations, it is recommended to wait and see or try with a light position [6]. - Long - term strategy: It is recommended to take profits when each contract rises, wait for the market to stabilize after a decline, and then judge the subsequent direction [6]. 3.5 Policy Adjustments - The daily price limit for contracts 2508 - 2606 is adjusted to 18% [6]. - The company's margin for contracts 2508 - 2606 is adjusted to 28% [6]. - The daily opening limit for all contracts 2508 - 2606 is 100 lots [6] 3.6 Geopolitical News - A new round of Gaza cease - fire negotiations in Doha is expected to reach an agreement within two weeks, and all parties are cautiously optimistic [7]. - Iran's Foreign Minister Alaqqi wrote to the UN Security Council and the Secretary - General regarding the UK, France, and Germany's threat to activate "rapid - restoration sanctions", stating that their actions are invalid [7]

部分班轮公司宣涨8月初运价,盘面偏强震荡,近月保持基差修复,今日若回调可考虑加仓。 | SCFIS、NCFI运价指数 | | | --- | --- | | 7月14日 | 7月18日 | | 上海出口集装箱结算运价指数SCFIS（欧洲航线）2421.94点，较上期上涨7.3% | 宁波出口集装箱运价指数NCFI（综合指数）1218.03点，较上期下跌3.19% | | 上海出口集装箱结算运价指数SCFIS（美西航线）1266.59点，较上期下跌18.7% | 宁波出口集装箱运价指数NCFI（欧洲航线）1435.21点，较上期下跌0.50% | | | 宁波出口集装箱运价指数NCFI（美西航线）1186.59点，较上期上涨0.85% | | 7月18日 | 7月18日 | | 上海出口集装箱运价指数SCFI公布价格1646.90点，较上期下跌86.39点 | | | 上海出口集装箱运价指数SCFI欧线价格2079USD/TEU, 较上期下跌1.00% | 中国出口集装箱运价指数CCFI（综合指数）1303.54点，较上期下跌0.8% | | | 中国出口集装箱运价指数CCFI（欧洲航线）1803.42点，较上 ...

Report Industry Investment Ratings - Iron ore: Upward [2] - Coking coal and coke: Upward [2] - Rolled steel and rebar: Oscillating strongly [2] - Glass: Upward [2] - Soda ash: Oscillating [2] - CSI 50: Rebound [2] - CSI 300: Oscillating [2] - CSI 500: Upward [4] - CSI 1000: Upward [4] - 2-year Treasury bond: Oscillating [4] - 5-year Treasury bond: Oscillating [4] - 10-year Treasury bond: Rebound [4] - Gold: High-level oscillation [4] - Silver: Strong operation [4] - Pulp: Oscillating [6] - Logs: Strongly oscillating [6] - Soybean oil: Oscillating more [6] - Palm oil: Oscillating more [6] - Rapeseed oil: Oscillating more [6] - Soybean meal: Oscillating more [6] - Rapeseed meal: Oscillating more [6] - Soybean No. 2: Oscillating more [6] - Soybean No. 1: Oscillating more [6] - Live pigs: Oscillating weakly [7] - Rubber: Oscillating [9] - PX: Wait-and-see [9] - PTA: Wait-and-see [9] - MEG: Short at high prices [9] - PR: Wait-and-see [9] - PF: Wait-and-see [9] Core Views of the Report The report analyzes the market trends of various commodities and financial products on July 21, 2025. It is believed that the "anti-involution" policy has boosted the sentiment of the black market, the iron ore market is temporarily stable in the short term but oversupplied in the long term, the coking coal and coke market is expected to be strong in the short term, and the steel market is affected by policies and demand and may fluctuate strongly. In the financial market, with the improvement of China's economic data and the implementation of positive policies, the stock index is expected to rise, and the bond market may be volatile. Precious metals are affected by factors such as interest rates, geopolitics, and central bank purchases and are expected to maintain high-level oscillations. In the agricultural and light industrial product markets, the prices of logs and some oils and meals are expected to be strong, while the prices of live pigs are expected to be weak. The rubber market is in a state of supply and demand adjustment and is expected to oscillate widely. Summaries by Relevant Catalogs Black Industry - **Iron ore**: The "anti-involution" policy has boosted market sentiment, and the iron ore price has risen significantly. The end-of-season impulse of mines is basically over, and global iron ore shipments have declined to some extent. The near-term arrivals have increased month-on-month due to the previous high shipments, and the supply remains loose. In the off-season of the industry, the output of five major steel products has decreased, but the molten iron output has increased by 26,300 tons to 2.4244 million tons month-on-month, and the iron ore port inventory has slightly increased. In the long term, the supply of iron ore is expected to gradually increase, the demand will remain relatively low, and the port inventory will enter the accumulation channel, with the pattern of oversupply remaining unchanged. Due to short-term sentiment disturbances, the iron ore price has risen significantly and broken through the 750 yuan/ton mark, and it is expected to be strong [2]. - **Coking coal and coke**: After the first round of price increases, the cost of coke still faces pressure, and the market's expectation of future price increases has strengthened. With the molten iron output remaining high, the current fundamentals of coke are relatively healthy, and the futures price is expected to oscillate strongly in the short term. The overall operation of coking plants is stable, with smooth shipments, and the enthusiasm of traders to purchase goods remains high, resulting in a slightly tight supply of spot goods. With the arrival of high temperatures and the rainy season in various regions, downstream demand has weakened, but the current profitability is still acceptable, and the overall enthusiasm for operation is good, with the molten iron output continuing to rise. Currently, steel mills' enthusiasm for purchasing coke has slightly increased. The current supply of coke spot goods is tight, and the price of upstream coking coal still has support. It is expected that the coke price will remain strong in the short term. Attention should be paid to the trends of molten iron and the supply side of coking coal and coke in the later stage [2]. - **Rolled steel and rebar**: The "anti-involution" has triggered a rise in the positive sentiment on the supply side. Although the Central Urban Work Conference did not meet expectations, the expectation of stable growth in the steel industry has continued to boost market sentiment, and the futures price has continued to rise. In the off-season, the demand for building materials has declined month-on-month. The profits of five major steel products are acceptable, and the output has declined month-on-month. The pressure on the total steel inventory is not obvious, and the supply-demand contradiction is not prominent. In June, infrastructure was weak, real estate was stable, and exports were strong, basically in line with previous expectations. External demand exports were overdrawn in advance, and real estate investment continued to decline. Total demand is unlikely to show an anti-seasonal performance. On the basis of no increase in total annual demand, an obvious pattern of high in the front and low in the back will be formed. In the short term, the expectation of stable growth in the steel industry has improved market sentiment. Attention should be paid to whether more policies will be introduced at the Politburo meeting at the end of July. Finished steel products are currently supported by the macro and policy aspects [2]. - **Glass**: The "anti-involution" trading may continue, and the Politburo meeting is approaching, with the macro situation being neutral and strong. On the demand side, the glass deep-processing orders have weakened slightly month-on-month, but the speculative demand brought by the rising futures price is relatively strong. On the supply side, the output is expected to increase after the glass produced by the previously ignited production lines comes out, and the pressure on the supply side still exists. To meet the seasonal destocking of glass, the daily melting volume needs to be reduced to below 154,000 tons. There are many disturbances in market sentiment. The inventory of glass in the middle and lower reaches is low, with room for replenishment, but the rigid demand has not recovered. In the long term, the real estate industry is still in the adjustment cycle, and the year-on-year decline in the completed floor area of houses is relatively large, making it difficult for the glass demand to rebound significantly. In the short term, continuous observation is needed to see if the actual demand can improve [2]. Financial Market - **Stock index futures/options**: On the previous trading day, the CSI 300 index rose by 0.60%, the CSI 50 index rose by 0.74%, the CSI 500 index rose by 0.28%, and the CSI 1000 index rose by 0.25%. Funds flowed into the basic metals and fertilizer and pesticide sectors, while funds flowed out of the electronic components and automobile parts sectors. The G20 Finance Ministers and Central Bank Governors Meeting was held in Durban, South Africa. China will implement a more proactive fiscal policy and expand high-level opening up in the second half of the year. The Ministry of Commerce responded to the US approval of the sale of NVIDIA H20 chips to China, emphasizing that cooperation and win-win results are the right path. The market's risk aversion sentiment has eased, and it is recommended to hold long positions in stock index futures [2][4]. - **Treasury bonds**: The yield to maturity of the 10-year Chinese government bond remained unchanged, FR007 decreased by 4 basis points, and SHIBOR3M remained unchanged. The central bank conducted 187.5 billion yuan of 7-day reverse repurchase operations at a fixed interest rate, with a net investment of 102.8 billion yuan on the day. The market interest rate is consolidating, and the Treasury bond price has rebounded slightly. It is recommended to hold long positions in Treasury bonds with a light position [4]. - **Precious metals**: - **Gold**: In the context of a high-interest rate environment and the reconstruction of globalization, the pricing mechanism of gold is shifting from being centered on real interest rates to being centered on central bank gold purchases. The actions of central banks to purchase gold are crucial, reflecting the concentration of "decentralization" and risk aversion needs. In terms of monetary attributes, Trump's "Make America Great Again" bill has been successfully passed, which may exacerbate the US debt problem and lead to cracks in the US dollar's currency credit. In the process of de-dollarization, the de-fiat currency attribute of gold is prominent. In terms of financial attributes, in the global high-interest rate environment, the substitution effect of gold as a zero-yield bond for bonds has weakened, and its sensitivity to the real interest rate of US Treasury bonds has decreased. In terms of risk aversion attributes, although the geopolitical risk has weakened marginally, Trump's tariff policy has intensified global trade tensions, and the market's risk aversion demand remains strong, which has become an important factor in boosting the gold price in stages. In terms of commodity attributes, the demand for physical gold in China has increased significantly, and the central bank has restarted gold purchases since November last year and has increased its holdings for eight consecutive months. Currently, the logic driving the rise of the gold price has not completely reversed. The Fed's interest rate policy and tariff policy may be short-term disturbing factors. It is expected that the Fed's interest rate policy will be more cautious this year, and the evolution of the tariff policy and geopolitical conflicts will dominate the change in market risk aversion sentiment. According to the latest US data, the non-farm payrolls data shows that the labor market is relatively resilient, with the non-farm employment population exceeding market expectations and the unemployment rate dropping to 4.1%. The PCE data in May shows that the inflation data has slowed down, with the core PCE rising by 2.7% year-on-year, exceeding market expectations, and the PCE rising by 2.3% year-on-year, in line with market expectations, indicating the resilience of core inflation. The CPI in June rose by 2.7% year-on-year, in line with market expectations and rebounding from the previous month, indicating the resilience of inflation. With the progress of trade negotiations, the impact of tariffs on inflation is expected to weaken. In the short term, the weakening of the US dollar, combined with the uncertainty of geopolitics and tariff policies, and the debate over the Fed's independence have boosted the demand for risk aversion funds, but some funds have shifted to alternative assets such as silver. It is expected that the gold price will maintain high-level oscillations [4]. - **Silver**: It is expected to operate strongly [4]. Light Industry and Agricultural Products - **Pulp**: On the previous trading day, the spot market price of pulp was strong. The price of some coniferous pulp in the spot market rose by 20 - 70 yuan/ton, and the price of some broadleaf pulp in the spot market rose by 70 yuan/ton. The latest FOB price of coniferous pulp decreased by 20 US dollars to 720 US dollars/ton, and the latest FOB price of broadleaf pulp decreased by 60 US dollars to 500 US dollars/ton. The decline in the cost price has weakened the support for the pulp price. The profitability of the paper industry is at a low level, and the inventory pressure of paper mills is relatively large, with low acceptance of high-priced pulp. The demand is in the off-season, and raw materials are purchased on a rigid basis, which is negative for the pulp price. The pulp market presents a pattern of weak supply and demand, and it is expected that the pulp price will oscillate mainly under the game between long and short positions [6]. - **Logs**: Last week, the average daily shipment volume of logs at the port was 58,800 cubic meters, a decrease of 8,100 cubic meters month-on-month. The downstream demand was poor, the orders of processing plants declined significantly, the utilization rate of the sawing machine capacity of processing plants decreased, and the average daily outbound volume dropped below 60,000 cubic meters. In June, the volume of logs shipped from New Zealand to China was 1.406 million cubic meters, an increase of 0.3% from the previous month. The expected arrival volume this week is 192,000 cubic meters, a decrease of 44% month-on-month. As of last week, the log port inventory was 3.22 million cubic meters, a decrease of 10,000 cubic meters month-on-month. The spot market price is relatively stable. The spot market price in Shandong is stable at 740 yuan/cubic meter, a decrease of 10 yuan from the previous week, and the price in the Jiangsu market is stable at 750 yuan/cubic meter, a decrease of 10 yuan from the previous week. The latest CFR quote in July is 114 US dollars/cubic meter, an increase of 4 US dollars from the previous month, with a maximum of 117 US dollars, and the cost-side support has increased. In the short term, the arrival volume of logs has decreased again, the supply pressure has eased, and the sudden hurricane in the key ports of New Zealand's logs has affected the log shipments, stimulating the rise of the log price. Although the average daily outbound volume is below 60,000 cubic meters, the "anti-involution" policy in China has boosted market sentiment, and the shortage of the 6-meter medium A, the mainstream delivery product in the Taicang area, has promoted the price increase. It is expected that the log price will maintain a strong oscillation [6]. - **Oils and meals**: - **Oils**: In June, the production of Malaysian palm oil was 1.692 million tons, a decrease of 4.5% month-on-month, while the inventory increased to 2.03 million tons, the fourth consecutive month of growth, mainly due to the unexpected decline in exports. The increase in the export tariff in July may further slow down the export pace. The production activity of US biodiesel is increasing, which supports the demand for soybean oil as the main raw material, and is also boosted by Indonesia's B40 policy. Affected by the large arrival of South American soybeans and the high-pressure crushing of oil mills, the domestic soybean oil inventory has accelerated the growth, the palm oil inventory has rebounded, and the rapeseed oil inventory has continued to decline, but the year-on-year inventory pressure is still high. The inventory of the three major oils has continued to rise, with sufficient supply and a demand off-season, lacking its own driving force. However, it benefits from the expectation of biodiesel, and the oils are expected to oscillate more in the short term. Attention should be paid to the weather in the US soybean-producing areas and the production and sales of Malaysian palm oil [6]. - **Meals**: The estimated output of US soybeans has been reduced, but the increase in the crushing volume cannot offset the decrease in the export volume, and the final increase in the year-end inventory exceeds expectations. The growth of US soybean crops is good, and the improvement of the US crop rating has strengthened the expectation of a bumper autumn harvest. However, the expected consumption of US soybean crushing is continuously driven by the favorable biofuel policy, which supports the US soybean futures price. The agricultural trade agreement reached between the US and Indonesia has increased the market's confidence in future soybean export demand, and the US soybean price has risen. The expected arrival volume of imported soybeans in China in July is about 10 million tons, and the operating rate of oil mills remains relatively high. Some oil mills in certain regions are facing the pressure of full storage of soybean meal, and the phenomenon of oil mills urging提货 has increased, with the提货 volume of soybean meal at a high level. It is expected that soybean meal will oscillate more in the short term under the boost of cost and the expectation of US soybean exports. Attention should be paid to the weather of US soybeans and the arrival situation of soybeans [6]. - **Live pigs**: The average trading weight of live pigs continues to show a downward trend. The average trading weight of live pigs across the country has dropped to 124.91 kilograms. From a regional perspective, the average trading weights of live pigs in various provinces have risen and fallen, but the overall trend is downward. Recently, the increase in temperature has slowed down the weight gain rate of live pigs. In addition, after the price difference between fat pigs and standard pigs turned positive, the price of large pigs was relatively high, and slaughtering enterprises increased their procurement efforts for low-priced standard pigs to relieve the procurement pressure, resulting in a decline in the overall average procurement weight. However, some large-scale farms in certain regions have chosen to hold back pigs for weight gain based on the bullish expectation of the large pig market, driving a slight increase in the average trading weight of live pigs in the local area. Looking forward to the future, as the breeding end may continue to adopt the weight loss strategy, and slaughtering enterprises will still focus on purchasing standard pigs, it is expected that the average trading weight of live pigs in most regions still has room to decline. However, considering the continuous phenomenon of holding back pigs for weight gain in some regions, it is expected that the average trading weight of live pigs across the country may continue to decline slightly. The average settlement price of live pigs of key slaughtering enterprises has risen slightly to 15.55 yuan/kg, a slight increase of 0.98% month-on-month. From the price trend, the settlement price shows an oscillating downward trend. Affected by factors such as the accelerated slaughtering rhythm of the breeding end and the impact of high temperatures on terminal consumption, although the overall average price has increased slightly compared with last week, the price has fallen from the high level due to the price reduction and procurement by slaughtering enterprises. At the same time, the average operating rate of key slaughtering enterprises this week has dropped to 31.97%, a decrease of 0.97 percentage points month-on-month. The decline in the operating rate is mainly due to two factors: on the one hand, the supply of live pigs is sufficient, and the procurement difficulty of enterprises has decreased

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No investment rating information is provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints - Amid geopolitical conflicts and tariff uncertainties, the game in the shipping market is challenging, and it is recommended to participate with a light position or stay on the sidelines [4]. - The short - term market may rebound. Risk - takers can consider adding positions if the price continues to pull back, and short - selling lightly above 1950 for the EC2512 contract. In the long - term, it is advisable to take profits when the contracts rise and wait for the price to stabilize after a pullback before making further decisions [5]. 3. Summary by Content Shipping Indexes - On July 14, the Shanghai Export Container Settlement Freight Index (SCFIS) for the European route was 2421.94 points, up 7.3% from the previous period, and for the US West route was 1266.59 points, down 18.7% [3]. - On July 11, the Ningbo Export Container Freight Index (NCFI) composite index was 1218.03 points, down 3.19% from the previous period; the European route was 1435.21 points, down 0.50%, and the US West route was 1186.59 points, up 0.85% [3]. - On July 11, the Shanghai Export Container Freight Index (SCFI) composite index was 1733.29 points, down 30.20 points from the previous period; the European route price was 2099 USD/TEU, down 0.10%, and the US West route was 2194 USD/FEU, up 5.03% [3]. - On July 11, the China Export Container Freight Index (CCFI) composite index was 1313.70 points, down 2.2% from the previous period; the European route was 1726.41 points, up 1.9%, and the US West route was 1027.49 points, down 5.2% [3]. Economic Data - Eurozone's June manufacturing PMI was 49.4, service PMI was 50, and composite PMI was 50.2. The Sentix investor confidence index was 0.2 [3]. - China's Caixin manufacturing PMI in June was 50.4, up 2.1 points from May [3]. - US June Markit manufacturing PMI was 52, service PMI was 53.1, and composite PMI was 52.8 [3]. Market Situation - Trump's additional tariffs on multiple countries, mainly in Southeast Asia, have increased the difficulty of the game in the shipping market. Some shipping companies have announced price increases. The tariff negotiation date has been postponed to August 1. The spot market price range is set, with a slight price increase to test the market, and the market has rebounded slightly [4]. - On July 17, the main contract 2510 closed at 1581.3, down 4.28%, with a trading volume of 65,600 lots and an open interest of 50,000 lots, a decrease of 453 lots from the previous day [4]. Strategies - Short - term strategy: The short - term market may rebound. Risk - takers are recommended to go long lightly below 1300 for the 2510 contract and add positions if it continues to pull back today. Consider short - selling lightly above 1950 for the EC2512 contract [5]. - Arbitrage strategy: In the context of international situation turmoil, the market is mainly in a positive spread structure with large fluctuations. It is recommended to wait and see or try with a light position [5]. - Long - term strategy: It is recommended to take profits when the contracts rise and wait for the price to stabilize after a pullback before making further decisions [5]. Other Information - On July 16, the new round of cease - fire negotiations in Gaza made significant progress. Israel submitted a new withdrawal plan [6]. - In the first quarter of this year, global goods trade increased by 3.6% quarter - on - quarter and 5.3% year - on - year. The growth was mainly due to the expected tariff increase in the US, which led to a significant increase in North American imports [6]. - The US tariff policy has brought uncertainty to the operation of Hamburg Port [6]

交易提示 交易咨询：0571-85165192，85058093 2025 年 7 月 18 日星期五 16519 新世纪期货交易提示（2025-7-18） | | | | 铁矿：近期反内卷政策提振黑色市场情绪，铁矿石盘面大幅拉涨。矿山季 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | | | 末冲量基本结束，全球铁矿发运有一定程度下降，近端到港量由于前期发 | | | | | 运高位环比增加，后续供应依然宽松。产业端淡季，五大钢材产量降，但 | | | 铁矿石 | 上行 | 铁水产量环比涨 2.63 万吨至 242.44 万吨，铁矿港口库存小幅累库，铁矿 | | | | | 基本面短期尚可。供给侧改革消息扰动叠加唐山限产带动黑色价格上涨， | | | | | 原料跟涨。中长期看，铁矿石中长期看整体呈现供应逐步回升、需求相对 | | | | | 低位、港口库存步入累库通道的局面，供需过剩格局不变，介于短期情绪 | | | | | 扰动，短期大幅拉涨并突破 750 元/吨一线，铁矿偏强为主。 | | | | | 煤焦：焦炭首轮提涨尘埃落定，刚需变化不大，短期内焦炭价格维持涨势。 | | | 煤焦 ...

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. 2. Core Viewpoints - The short - term market may rebound, but due to geopolitical conflicts and tariff uncertainties, the game is difficult, and it is recommended to participate with light positions or wait and see [2][4]. - Attention should be paid to tariff policies, the Middle - East situation, and spot freight rates [4]. 3. Summary by Related Content Market Conditions - On July 16, the main contract 2510 closed at 1598.1, with a 1.4% increase, a trading volume of 96,500 lots, and an open interest of 50,500 lots, an increase of 3,849 lots from the previous day [4]. - The basis continued to converge, but the spot market lacked sufficient momentum to support the continuous upward movement of futures prices. The main contract opened high and closed low but still rose slightly [4]. Freight Index - On July 14, the Shanghai Export Container Settlement Freight Index (SCFIS) for the European route was 2,421.94 points, up 7.3% from the previous period; for the US - West route, it was 1,266.59 points, down 18.7% [3]. - On July 11, the Ningbo Export Container Freight Index (NCFI) composite index was 1,218.03 points, down 3.19% from the previous period; the European route was 1,435.21 points, down 0.50%; the US - West route was 1,186.59 points, up 0.85% [3]. - On July 11, the Shanghai Export Container Freight Index (SCFI) composite index was 1,733.29 points, down 30.20 points from the previous period; the European line price was 2,099 USD/TEU, down 0.10%; the US - West route was 2,194 USD/FEU, up 5.03% [3]. - On July 11, the China Export Container Freight Index (CCFI) composite index was 1,313.70 points, down 2.2% from the previous period; the European route was 1,726.41 points, up 1.9%; the US - West route was 1,027.49 points, down 5.2% [3]. PMI and Investor Confidence Index - Eurozone's June manufacturing PMI preliminary value was 49.4, service PMI was 50 (a two - month high), and composite PMI was 50.2. The Sentix investor confidence index was 0.2 [3]. - China's Caixin manufacturing PMI in June was 50.4, up 2.1 percentage points from May [3]. - US Markit manufacturing PMI preliminary value in June was 52, service PMI was 53.1 (a two - month low), and composite PMI was 52.8 (a two - month low) [3]. Strategies - Short - term strategy: The short - term market may rebound. Risk - takers are recommended to go long on the 2510 contract below 1300 (already with a profit margin of over 300). If it continues to pull back today, consider adding positions; consider shorting the EC2512 contract above 1950 [5]. - Arbitrage strategy: In the context of international situation turmoil, with a positive spread structure and large fluctuations, it is recommended to wait and see or try with light positions [5]. - Long - term strategy: It is recommended to take profits when each contract rises, wait for the pull - back to stabilize, and then judge the subsequent direction [5]. Policy Adjustments - The daily limit for contracts from 2508 to 2606 is adjusted to 18% [5]. - The margin for contracts from 2508 to 2606 is adjusted to 28% [5]. - The daily opening limit for all contracts from 2508 to 2606 is 100 lots [5].

Report Industry Investment Ratings - Iron Ore: Upward [2] - Coking Coal and Coke: Upward [2] - Rolled Steel: Sideways [2] - Glass: Upward [2] - Soda Ash: Sideways [2] - Shanghai Stock Exchange 50 Index: Rebound [2] - CSI 300 Index: Sideways [4] - CSI 500 Index: Upward [4] - CSI 1000 Index: Upward [4] - 2 - year Treasury Bond: Sideways [4] - 5 - year Treasury Bond: Sideways [4] - 10 - year Treasury Bond: Rebound [4] - Gold: High - level Sideways [4] - Silver: Strong - trending [4] - Pulp: Sideways [5] - Logs: Sideways [5] - Soybean Oil: Sideways with an Upward Bias [5] - Palm Oil: Sideways with an Upward Bias [5] - Rapeseed Oil: Sideways with an Upward Bias [5] - Soybean Meal: Wide - range Fluctuation [5] - Rapeseed Meal: Wide - range Fluctuation [5] - Soybean No. 2: Wide - range Fluctuation [5] - Soybean No. 1: Wide - range Fluctuation [5] - Live Pigs: Rebound [7] - Rubber: Sideways [9] - PX: Wait - and - see [9] - PTA: Short on Highs [9] - MEG: Short on Highs [9] - PR: Wait - and - see [9] - PF: Wait - and - see [9] Core Viewpoints - The black industry is affected by supply - side reform news and production restrictions in Tangshan, with short - term price fluctuations. The iron ore market has short - term strength but a long - term oversupply situation. The coking coal and coke market may see increased supply, and downstream demand is weakening. The rolled steel market has limited supply - demand contradictions in the short term, and the glass market has short - term supply contraction expectations [2]. - In the financial sector, the stock index shows different trends, and the bond market has a narrow - range rebound. Gold is affected by multiple factors and is expected to maintain high - level sideways movement [4]. - The pulp and log markets have a supply - demand dual - weak pattern. The oil and fat market is supported by biodiesel expectations, while the粕类 market is affected by US soybean production and trade policies [5]. - The live pig market has a downward trend in transaction weight and a possible decline in the weekly average price due to increased supply and weak demand. The rubber market has tight supply and weak demand, with inventory adjustments [7][9]. - The PX, PTA, MEG, PR, and PF in the polyester sector have different supply - demand and price trends, with some suggesting short - selling opportunities on highs [9]. Summary by Category Black Industry - **Iron Ore**: Season - end impulse of mines is basically over, global iron ore shipments decline, proximal arrivals increase, and the supply is still abundant. The iron ore price is strong in the short term due to sentiment disturbances but has a long - term oversupply pattern [2]. - **Coking Coal and Coke**: Supply may increase as some coal mines and coke enterprises are expected to resume production. Coke enterprises' profits shrink, downstream demand weakens, and inventory pressure increases [2]. - **Rolled Steel**: The "anti - involution" policy boosts supply - side sentiment, but the market is affected by the less - than - expected central urban work conference. The supply - demand contradiction is not prominent in the short term [2]. - **Glass**: Spot prices decline slightly, inventory decreases, and the long - term demand is difficult to recover significantly. The short - term price is supported by policies [2]. - **Soda Ash**: The short - term valuation is relatively low, and the price is sideways with a slightly upward bias, depending on downstream demand recovery [2]. Financial Sector - **Stock Index**: Different stock indices show various trends, with capital flowing in and out of different sectors. The economic data reflects certain resilience [4]. - **Treasury Bond**: The central bank conducts reverse repurchase operations, and the bond market has a narrow - range rebound [4]. - **Gold and Silver**: Gold is affected by multiple factors such as currency, finance, safety - hedge, and commodity attributes, and is expected to maintain high - level sideways movement. Silver is strong - trending [4]. Light Industry - **Pulp**: The cost price drops, the papermaking industry's profit is low, and the demand is in the off - season, resulting in a supply - demand dual - weak pattern [5]. - **Logs**: The arrival volume is expected to decrease, the daily shipment volume is low, and the market is in a supply - demand dual - weak pattern, while the impact of futures delivery needs attention [5]. Oil, Fat, and Oilseed Meal - **Oils and Fats**: The production of Malaysian palm oil decreases, but inventory increases. The domestic oil inventory rises, and the market is supported by biodiesel expectations [5]. - **Oilseed Meal**: The US soybean production and trade policies affect the market, and the domestic soybean import volume is large, with the price showing wide - range fluctuations [5]. Agricultural Products - **Live Pigs**: The transaction weight may decline slightly, the slaughter enterprise's settlement price is volatile, and the opening rate may continue to decline, with the weekly average price possibly falling [7]. Soft Commodities - **Rubber**: The supply is tight due to weather conditions, the demand is weak, and the inventory is in the adjustment stage, with the price expected to be in wide - range fluctuations [9]. Polyester Sector - **PX**: The supply is tight in the short term, and the price follows the oil price [9]. - **PTA**: The supply increases, the downstream load decreases, and the medium - term supply - demand weakens, with the price following the cost in the short term [9]. - **MEG**: The port inventory decreases slightly, but the supply pressure may appear in the medium term, and the price is under pressure [9]. - **PR**: The cost support weakens, and the market is in a weak - stable pattern [9]. - **PF**: The terminal demand is weak, and the price may continue to be weak and sideways [9].

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content Core Viewpoints - The far - month basis has been repaired, meeting the daily report's expectations. With the US Treasury Secretary stating that China - US negotiations are in a "good situation", investors can consider partial profit - taking if the market rises today [2]. - Amid geopolitical conflicts and tariff fluctuations, the game is difficult, and it is recommended to participate with a light position or stay on the sidelines [3]. - The short - term market is expected to rebound. Risk - takers who went long on the 2510 contract below 1300 can consider partial profit - taking if it continues to rise today, and it is recommended to short the EC2512 contract lightly above 1650 (with a stop - loss if participating). In the context of international situation turmoil, the structure is mainly in positive carry, with large fluctuations, so it is recommended to wait and see or try with a light position. For the long - term, it is recommended to take profits when the contracts rise and wait for the market to stabilize after a pullback before judging the subsequent direction [4]. Summary by Related Content Shipping Indexes - On July 14, the Shanghai Export Container Settlement Freight Index (SCFIS) for the European route was 2421.94 points, up 7.3% from the previous period; the SCFIS for the US West route was 1266.59 points, down 18.7% from the previous period. The Ningbo Export Container Freight Index (NCFI) composite index was 1218.03 points, down 3.19% from the previous period; the NCFI for the European route was 1435.21 points, down 0.50% from the previous period; the NCFI for the US West route was 1186.59 points, up 0.85% from the previous period [2]. - On July 11, the Shanghai Export Container Freight Index (SCFI) composite index was 1733.29 points, down 30.20 points from the previous period; the SCFI for the European route was 2099 USD/TEU, down 0.10% from the previous period; the SCFI for the US West route was 2194 USD/FEU, up 5.03% from the previous period. The China Export Container Freight Index (CCFI) composite index was 1313.70 points, down 2.2% from the previous period; the CCFI for the European route was 1726.41 points, up 1.9% from the previous period; the CCFI for the US West route was 1027.49 points, down 5.2% from the previous period [2]. Economic Data - In the Eurozone, the preliminary manufacturing PMI in June was 49.4 (expected 49.8, previous 49.4), the preliminary services PMI was 50 (a two - month high, expected 50, previous 49.7), the preliminary composite PMI was 50.2 (expected 50.5, previous 50.2), and the Sentix investor confidence index was 0.2 (expected - 6, previous - 8.1) [2]. - The Caixin China Manufacturing PMI in June was 50.4, 2.1 percentage points higher than in May, the same as in April, and back above the critical point [2]. - In the US, the preliminary Markit manufacturing PMI in June was 52 (the same as in May, higher than the expected 51, the highest since February); the preliminary services PMI was 53.1 (lower than the previous 53.7, higher than the expected 52.9, a two - month low); the preliminary composite PMI was 52.8 (lower than the previous 53, higher than the expected 52.1, a two - month low) [2]. Market and Policy - Trump continued to impose tariffs on multiple countries, mainly in Southeast Asia, which further hit re - trade. The Trump administration postponed the tariff negotiation date to August 1. Some shipping companies announced price increases, and the spot market had a small price increase to test the market, with a slight rebound in the market [3]. - On July 15, the main contract 2510 closed at 1655.6, up 15.38%, with a trading volume of 107,800 lots and an open interest of 46,600 lots, an increase of 13,685 lots from the previous day [3]. - The sharp rise in the SCFIS for the European route drove bullish sentiment. With the roll - over of the main contract and the basis repair logic, the 2510 contract rose significantly. Future attention should be paid to tariff policies, the Middle East situation, and spot freight rates [3]. Trade Tensions - The EU is prepared to impose additional counter - tariffs on US imports worth about 84 billion US dollars if the US - EU trade negotiation fails. Trump announced on July 12 that he would impose a 30% tariff on some EU imports starting from August 1 [5]. - A US Republican senator threatened countries including China with a 500% tariff if they continue to trade with Russia. China firmly opposes any illegal unilateral sanctions and long - arm jurisdiction and hopes for peaceful solutions to the Ukraine crisis [5]. Trading Regulations - The daily limit for contracts from 2508 to 2606 is adjusted to 18% [4]. - The company's margin for contracts from 2508 to 2606 is adjusted to 28% [4]. - The daily opening limit for all contracts from 2508 to 2606 is 100 lots [4].