证券研究报告 房地产 行业定期报告 hyzqdatemark 2025 年 12 月 10 日 证券分析师 邓力 SAC：S1350525070006 dengli@jzsec.com 陈颖 SAC：S1350525110002 chenying02@huayuanstock.com 联系人 唐志玮 tangzhiwei@huayuanstock.com 发改委支持 REITs 底层资产扩围，成交继续边际走弱 投资评级： 看好（维持） ——房地产行业周报（25/11/29-25/12/5） 投资要点： 请务必仔细阅读正文之后的评级说明和重要声明 板块行情：本周上证指数上升 0.4%、深证成指上升 1.3%、创业板指上升 1.9%、沪深 300 上升 1.3%、房地产（申万）下跌 2.2%。个股方面，涨跌幅 前五的分别为：中国武夷(+10.2%)、华联控股(+7.4%)、华夏幸福(+7.1%)、 宁波富达(+5.7%)、财信发展(+5.6%)，涨跌幅后五的分别为：三湘印象 (-12.9%)、ST 中迪(-11.5%)、沙河股份(-8.7%)、深振业 A(-8.4%)、新华 联(-8.3%)。 板块表现： 数据跟 ...

Core Insights - The recent land auction in Shenzhen saw intense competition, with the total sales amounting to 39.52 billion yuan for two residential plots, indicating strong demand for prime real estate in the area [2][10]. Group 1: Auction Details - On December 8, two residential plots were successfully auctioned in Shenzhen, located in Nanshan and Guangming districts, with a starting total price of 30.02 billion yuan [2]. - The Nanshan plot was won by China Overseas Land & Investment for 31.86 billion yuan after 95 rounds of bidding, resulting in a floor price of approximately 77,400 yuan per square meter and a premium rate of 42.49% [2][4]. - The Guangming plot was acquired by Longfor Group at the base price of 7.66 billion yuan [2]. Group 2: Market Context - The Nanshan plot is strategically located near major corporate headquarters and has a compact size of approximately 11,800 square meters, with a total construction area of about 41,184 square meters [4]. - The area has limited residential offerings, with the only new housing project priced at an average of 133,000 yuan per square meter, while second-hand listings range from 140,000 to 180,000 yuan per square meter [6]. - China Overseas has now secured two residential plots in the Shenzhen Bay Super Headquarters Base area, reinforcing its position in the high-end market [6][8]. Group 3: Overall Land Supply Trends - Shenzhen has successfully auctioned 11 residential plots this year, covering an area of 229,400 square meters and generating over 28 billion yuan in total sales [10]. - The highest premium rate recorded was 86.1% for a plot in Qianhai, while the highest total price was 8.64 billion yuan for a plot in Bao'an, indicating a competitive land market [10]. - The overall trend in land supply across the country shows a reduction in quantity but an increase in quality, with a 16% year-on-year decrease in residential land transactions in 300 cities from January to November [12].

Group 1 - The Hong Kong real estate stocks have seen a significant decline, with China Jinmao dropping nearly 9% and China Overseas Grand Oceans Group falling 8% [1] - Other notable declines include Zhongliang Holdings down over 5%, Greentown China down 4.77%, and several other companies like Longfor Group and Yuyuan Property down over 3% [1] - Morgan Stanley suggests a selective investment strategy, highlighting a clear risk differentiation in the Chinese credit market, with the TMT sector showing good quality while the real estate sector remains under severe pressure [1] Group 2 - The real estate market is not expected to stabilize until 2025, with ongoing declines in sales and investment [1] - Vanke's attempt to extend domestic bond maturities has led to significant drops in both offshore and onshore bond prices, raising concerns about the financing environment for private developers [1] - The effects of policy easing have been limited, and there remains substantial inventory pressure in the market [1]

Group 1 - Wanda Commercial Management seeks to extend the maturity of a $400 million bond from February 2026 to February 2028, maintaining the original interest rate of 11% and payment arrangements, while also lowering the minimum total share capital requirement in Hong Kong [1] - The bondholders' meeting is scheduled for January 5, 2026, and Wanda is preparing funds for the repayment of another $700 million bond due in early 2026, indicating a structured approach to debt management [1] Group 2 - Shenzhen's land auction resulted in the sale of two residential plots for a total of 3.952 billion yuan, with the Nanshan plot sold for 3.186 billion yuan at a floor price of 77,400 yuan per square meter, reflecting a 42.49% premium [2] - The auction results show a clear differentiation in market demand, with high premiums for core assets while non-core areas exhibit cautious bidding behavior [2] Group 3 - China Communications Construction Company reported a loss of 1.8191 billion yuan during the transitional period of asset transfer to its controlling shareholder, which will bear the loss as per the agreement [3] - This arrangement highlights the resource synergy advantages of state-owned enterprises, alleviating financial pressure on the listed company and ensuring smooth asset restructuring [3] Group 4 - Greenland Holdings disclosed an increase of 1,595 lawsuits involving a total of 6.163 billion yuan, with the majority being construction and real estate disputes [4] - The surge in litigation reflects the operational pressures faced by the company amid industry adjustments, potentially impacting cash flow and operational efficiency [4] Group 5 - Lujiazui Group announced the cancellation of its supervisory board, revising its articles of association in compliance with the new Company Law of the People's Republic of China [5] - This change is aimed at optimizing governance structure and enhancing efficiency, aligning with the reform trends in A-share companies by shifting supervisory functions to the board's audit committee [5]

Group 1 - Multiple land auctions have recently taken place across various cities, with significant transactions occurring in Shenzhen and Guangzhou [1][5] - On December 8, Shenzhen auctioned two residential plots for a total of 39.52 billion yuan, with one plot in Nanshan District sold at a premium of over 42% [3][4] - The Nanshan plot, part of the Shenzhen Bay Super Headquarters Base, had a starting price of 22.36 billion yuan and was won by China Overseas Land & Investment Limited for 31.86 billion yuan, setting a new high for premium rates in the area [3][4] Group 2 - In Guangzhou, three residential plots were sold at the base price, totaling 22.838 billion yuan, indicating a different market dynamic compared to Shenzhen [2][5] - Other cities like Chongqing, Nanjing, and Suzhou also saw land transactions, with notable premiums in Guangzhou and Chongqing, while Nanjing and Suzhou experienced all plots selling at base prices [2][6][7] - The varying outcomes of land sales across cities reflect differing market conditions, with high premiums in core urban areas like Shenzhen indicating strong demand for prime assets [4][6]

近日，多地土拍密集成交。 12月8日，深圳有2宗宅地出让，总成交金额39.52亿元。其中，南山区地块溢价超42%成交，光明区地块则底 价成交。 业内人士认为，此次南山区深圳湾超级总部基地宅地高溢价成交，反映头部房企对核心城市核心资产的坚定信 心，体现了豪宅市场的韧性。 同日，广州有3宗涉宅用地出让，最终均底价成交，总成交金额22.838亿元。 12月5日，广州、重庆、南京、苏州均有土地成交，其中，广州一涉宅用地溢价27.3%成交，重庆一宅地溢价 12.87%成交，南京、苏州多宗宅地均底价成交。 12月8日，深圳有2宗宅地出让，一宗溢价超42%成交，一宗底价成交，总成交金额39.52亿元。 最受关注的是南山区深圳湾超级总部基地地块，土地面积11833.61㎡，建筑面积41184㎡（其中住宅36584㎡， 物业100㎡，商业1000㎡，文化、体育或其他设施3000㎡，托育机构500㎡），容积率3.48（住宅容积率3.1）， 起始价22.36亿元，起始综合楼面价54293元/㎡。 据了解，该地块开拍前已获6家竞买人报价，经过线下95轮竞价后，由深圳市中海启明房地产开发有限公司(中 海)以总价31.86亿元竞得，成交 ...

中经记者 陈婷 赵毅 深圳报道 T207-0068地块现状 图源：深圳公共资源交易中心 《中国经营报》记者获悉，12月8日，深圳市成功出让2宗住宅用地。其中，T207-0068地块以31.86亿元 成交，溢价率高达约43%，由中海地产旗下深圳市中海启明房地产开发有限公司竞得；A627-0268宗地 由深圳市恒龙盛祥投资发展有限公司（隶属于龙湖集团）以底价7.66亿元成交。 T207-0068地块备受瞩目。公告显示，该地块位于深圳市南山区深圳湾超级总部基地白石二道与深湾二 路的东南角，即业内惯称的"深超总"区域。开拍前，该地块已获得6家竞买人报价，最终经过95轮限时 竞价由中海收入囊中，综合楼面单价77360.14元/平方米。中指研究院提供的数据显示，该价格刷新了 深圳涉宅用地成交楼面价TOP3纪录。 记者注意到，T207-0068地块不远处即是中海旗下深湾玖序项目，该项目地块于2023年6月由中海以最高 限价125.32亿元及自持租赁面积5.85万平方米的条件摘下，成交楼面价60349元/平方米。就在竞得T207- 0068地块后，中海地产发布官宣海报，其中显示"玖序秉脉著新章，深湾自此仰双峰"。有业内人士分 ...

Core Insights - The Shenzhen land auction on December 8 resulted in two residential plots being sold, with the Deep Bay plot attracting significant attention due to its strategic location and high bidding activity [1][3] - China Overseas Land & Investment won the Deep Bay plot for 3.186 billion yuan, translating to a floor price of approximately 77,400 yuan per square meter, with a premium rate of 42.49% [1] - Longfor Group acquired the Guangming District plot at a base price of 766 million yuan, with a floor price of about 12,000 yuan per square meter, indicating a lower cost compared to other recent transactions in the area [1][3] Summary by Category Deep Bay Plot - The Deep Bay plot covers an area of 11,833.61 square meters and was previously designated for commercial use before being converted to residential use in April [1][3] - The plot's starting price was set at 2.236 billion yuan, and it attracted six major developers, including China Overseas and China Resources Land, due to its prime location [1][3] - The area has limited residential resources, with only a few remaining units available in the nearby China Overseas Deep Bay project, priced at approximately 133,000 yuan per square meter [3] Guangming District Plot - The Guangming District plot spans 20,523.78 square meters with a planned construction area of 63,623 square meters, including residential, commercial, and educational facilities [3] - The project must commence within one year and be completed within four years, with requirements for community amenities and noise pollution control [3] - The surrounding second-hand housing market shows an average listing price of about 41,000 yuan per square meter, while new developments are priced around 37,000 yuan per square meter [3] Market Analysis - The high premium for the Deep Bay plot reflects the confidence of leading real estate companies in acquiring core assets in major cities [3] - The price difference for the Guangming plot compared to a similar plot sold in June, which had a floor price of 18,380 yuan per square meter, highlights Longfor Group's cost advantage in this acquisition [3]

Group 1 - Shenzhen has launched multiple residential land plots as the year comes to a close, with significant transactions including China Overseas Land & Investment winning a plot for 3.186 billion yuan and Longfor Group acquiring another for 766 million yuan, totaling 3.952 billion yuan in revenue from these two plots [1][3] - The land plot T207-0068, won by China Overseas, has a floor price of approximately 77,360 yuan per square meter, with a premium rate of 42.49%. The bidding process involved six rounds of free pricing and 95 rounds of offline bidding [3] - The high premium for the T207-0068 plot indicates strong confidence from leading real estate companies in core urban assets, reflecting the resilience of the luxury housing market even during market adjustments [3][4] Group 2 - The newly released residential land in Shenzhen is primarily located in core areas with lower plot ratios, which allows for the development of higher-end products and potentially higher premiums for real estate companies [4] - The land auction market in Shenzhen is expected to exhibit characteristics of high heat in core areas, emerging differentiation, flexible policies, and controllable risks by 2025, despite facing inventory and funding pressures [4] - Recent trends show that land acquisition by the top 100 real estate companies reached 847.8 billion yuan in the first 11 months of the year, marking a 14.1% year-on-year increase, with state-owned enterprises dominating the market [6]

Core Viewpoint - The article highlights the recent land sales in Shenzhen, indicating a strong demand for residential land in core urban areas, reflecting confidence from leading real estate companies despite market adjustments [1][3]. Group 1: Land Sales in Shenzhen - On December 8, Shenzhen successfully auctioned multiple residential land parcels, with China Overseas Land & Investment winning the T207-0068 plot for a total price of 3.186 billion yuan, and Longfor Group acquiring the A627-0268 plot for 766 million yuan, totaling 3.952 billion yuan [1][3]. - The T207-0068 plot has a floor price of approximately 77,360 yuan per square meter, with a premium rate of 42.49%. The land sale conditions require bidders to provide a commitment for "delivery upon certification" [3][4]. Group 2: Market Trends and Developer Strategies - Analysts indicate that the high premium for the T207-0068 plot reflects the resilience of the luxury market and a shift in developer strategies from high turnover and density to high quality and lower density [3][4]. - The new residential land parcels in Shenzhen are primarily located in core areas with lower plot ratios, allowing for the development of higher-end products, which can command premium prices [4]. Group 3: Overall Market Dynamics - The land auction activity in Shenzhen is part of a broader trend, with multiple cities experiencing sustained land auction enthusiasm. In the first 11 months of the year, the top 100 real estate companies acquired land worth 847.8 billion yuan, a 14.1% increase year-on-year [6]. - The market is expected to continue focusing on high-quality developments, with policies aimed at stabilizing the market and promoting demand release, while the overall market still faces pressures [6].