信用债周策略 20260126 怎么看民企发债热度回升？ glmszqdatemark 2026 年 01 月 26 日 [Table_Author] | 分析师 | 徐亮 | 执业证书： S0590525110037 | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 邮箱： | xliang@glms.com.cn | 分析师 | 梁克淳 | | 执业证书： S0590525110038 | 邮箱： | liangkechun@glms.com.cn | | 相关研究 本公司具备证券投资咨询业务资格，请务必阅读最后一页免责声明 证券研究报告 1 国家对民营企业发债的最新支持：1 月 20 日，财政部副部长廖岷在国新办新闻 发布会上表示，支持民营企业债券风险分担机制是一项新政策。中央财政专门安 排风险分担资金，与央行现有政策协同，为民营企业和私募股权投资机构发行债 券提供征信支持，代偿投资人部分损失。 2025 年民企发债情况：2025 年以来，在国家政策的支持下，民营企业发债规模 逐步回升，且科创含量提升。2026 年 6 月发行规模约为 376 亿元，为年内民企 发债规模的最高值，其中科创债 ...

Core Insights - The article highlights the competitive landscape of the Chinese passenger car market in 2025, emphasizing the rise of domestic brands leveraging technology and user engagement to reshape market dynamics [1][2]. Group 1: Market Dynamics - By 2025, leading Chinese passenger car brands have established competitive advantages based on large-scale operations and strong brand reputation [1]. - Domestic brands, particularly Geely, BYD, and AITO, dominate the market, significantly altering the long-standing influence of joint venture brands [2][4]. Group 2: Brand Performance - Geely ranks first with a comprehensive influence score of 810.96, supported by 1,106,185 annual brand network mentions and 2,081,022 vehicle sales, alongside a 99.43% positive information ratio [4]. - BYD follows closely with a score of 802.90, showcasing a sales figure of 3,105,498 vehicles and a 99.18% positive sentiment [4]. - Tesla China maintains a strong position with a score of 798.53, attributed to its media presence and brand premium [5]. Group 3: Emerging Trends - AITO's performance is notable, with a network mention count of 2,786,396 and a 93.34% user sentiment ratio, indicating a strong foothold in the high-end market [6]. - New energy brands are rapidly growing, with Geely's Galaxy series becoming a key growth driver, while traditional automakers like Great Wall and Changan continue to innovate in hybrid and electric technologies [6]. Group 4: Challenges for Joint Ventures - Traditional joint venture brands face pressure from the rise of domestic brands, leading to a critical phase of adjustment and strategic transformation [7]. - Brands like SAIC Volkswagen and FAW-Volkswagen, despite their historical market presence, show signs of stagnation in user engagement and satisfaction compared to their domestic counterparts [7]. - The need for joint ventures to accelerate local electric vehicle development and adapt global technologies to meet Chinese consumer preferences is emphasized as a core challenge [7].

Core Viewpoint - The year 2025 is recognized as the "year of solid-state battery industrialization," marking a significant transition from experimental technology to mass production, reshaping the energy storage industry at an astonishing pace [1]. Group 1: Technological Breakthroughs and Capacity Implementation - In 2025, solid-state batteries achieved substantial breakthroughs in energy density and industrialization processes, with CATL's sulfide solid-state battery reaching an energy density of 500Wh/kg, and EVE Energy's first solid-state battery successfully rolling off the production line [3][4]. - Major companies like GAC Group and EVE Energy are establishing production lines for solid-state batteries, with GAC's line capable of producing batteries over 60Ah and EVE's Chengdu base being unveiled [3]. Group 2: Beneficiary Segments: Equipment and Materials - The demand for solid-state battery-specific equipment is surging due to the need for new manufacturing processes, leading equipment manufacturers like Xian Dai Intelligent and Winbond Technology to launch dedicated production lines [5]. - The solid-state battery industry is witnessing a critical period for pilot lines from 2025 to 2026, with equipment orders expected to be fulfilled ahead of schedule [5]. Group 3: Industry Development Anchors: Policies, Standards, and Leading Enterprises - Solid-state batteries are included in China's "New Energy Storage Manufacturing Industry High-Quality Development Action Plan," with support for R&D and pilot verification, while global competitors like the EU and the US are also accelerating their efforts [12]. - The first national standard for solid-state batteries is set to be published in September 2026, establishing China's leadership in the next generation of battery technology [13]. - Leading companies like CATL and BYD are planning to demonstrate small-scale production by 2027, indicating a strategic approach to validate technology feasibility [14]. Group 4: Future Application Rhythm: Gradual Penetration from Specialized to Mass Markets - From 2025 to 2027, solid-state batteries are expected to first penetrate specialized and high-end markets, including drones and high-end electric vehicles, which are sensitive to weight, safety, and energy density [16]. - Between 2027 and 2030, solid-state batteries will gradually enter high-end consumer and luxury electric vehicles, paving the way for broader market adoption [17]. - Post-2030, solid-state batteries are anticipated to flourish in mainstream passenger vehicles and general energy storage, leveraging cost control and supply chain scale effects [18]. Conclusion - The year 2025 marks a pivotal transition for solid-state batteries from "technically feasible" to "commercially visible," indicating a significant shift in the industry landscape [19][20].

Core Viewpoint - In December 2025, China's bus exports reached a record high, with total exports exceeding 10,000 units for the first time, marking a significant year-end surge in the industry [1][4]. Export Performance - In 2025, a total of 78,313 buses were exported, a 26.68% increase from 61,820 units in 2024 [1][11]. - December 2025 saw exports of 11,975 buses, a year-on-year increase of 63.73% and a month-on-month increase of 112.51% [1][4]. Market Segmentation - All segments (large, medium, and light buses) experienced significant growth in December 2025, with large buses exporting 5,070 units (up 35.89%), medium buses 4,028 units (up 214.44%), and light buses 2,877 units (up 24.98%) [3][4]. - The overall export volume in December was nearly double that of November, indicating a strong recovery after two months of decline [4][8]. Company Rankings - Yutong Bus led the export rankings with 17,149 units, a 22.49% increase from 14,000 units in 2024 [10][11]. - Xiamen Jinlong followed with 12,255 units, a remarkable 64.90% increase, while Ankai Bus saw a dramatic rise of 152.84% to 5,034 units [10][12]. Segment Leaders - In the seating bus category, Xiamen Jinlong topped the list with 9,953 units exported, a 57.63% increase, while Yutong followed with 8,392 units [17][18]. - For public buses, Yutong also led with 8,460 units, a 37.61% increase, followed by BYD with 4,173 units [26][27]. Future Outlook - The bus export market is expected to remain strong in 2026, with potential for further growth as the industry recovers from previous declines [8][29].

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the article highlights the successful operation of a 500 MWh independent battery energy storage system (BESS) project in Bulgaria, marking it as one of the largest independent storage projects in Eastern Europe, showcasing BYD's technological strength and global expansion efforts [2] - The project was developed through a strategic partnership between BYD Energy and Contour Global, emphasizing the importance of collaboration in establishing a long-term relationship and expanding into the European market [2] - BYD Energy has confirmed its participation in the 14th International Energy Storage Summit and Exhibition (ESIE 2026), inviting industry peers to join the global energy storage event [4] Group 2 - BYD has secured a significant 300 MWh energy storage contract in Mexico, indicating its growing influence in the Latin American market [8] - The company has also won a bid for a 200 MW/836.16 MWh independent energy storage project, further solidifying its position in the energy storage sector [8] - Additionally, BYD signed the largest energy storage supply agreement in Latin America, totaling 3.5 GWh, which reflects its commitment to expanding its market presence [8]

Group 1 - BYD Ocean Network launched the 2026 models of Seal 05DM-i and Seal 06DM-i in Beijing, with starting prices of 89,800 yuan and 116,800 yuan respectively, both offering a pure electric range of 210 km [1] - The core purpose of the 210 km pure electric range model is to provide users with a higher value experience, enabling "low cost, zero anxiety" green travel across a wider range of life scenarios, allowing most users to achieve "one charge a week" [3] - The 210 km pure electric range is attributed to improvements in battery energy density and optimization of the vehicle's energy management system, while the lithium iron phosphate battery pack has enhanced safety performance [5] Group 2 - BYD conducted long-distance pure electric road test experiences in low-temperature environments, covering various road conditions, with all test vehicles showing no significant battery depletion [7] - The "Heavenly Eye" intelligent parking experience area attracted significant attention, showcasing complex parking scenarios where users can control the vehicle's parking process via a mobile app, enhancing convenience [9] - The system can currently recognize over 100 parking scenarios and continuously optimizes parking strategies through deep learning, aiming for "everyone can park easily" [11]

中国汽车产业向绿而行，正为全球汽车产业绿色转型注入关键动能。2025年，新能源汽车在中国国内新 车销量中占比超过50%，全球一半以上的新能源汽车行驶在中国。与此同时，中国新能源汽车全年出口 261.5万辆，同比增长一倍。中国汽车全产业链加速技术降本、规模降本，让绿色交通在各国特别是广 大发展中国家成为更加可及的发展选项。全球新能源汽车产业发展，不仅需要优质产品和技术供给，更 需要可落地的系统性解决方案。从中国实践看，绿色出行蔚然成风，离不开"里程焦虑"的逐步解 决。"十四五"时期，中国已建成全球最大电动汽车充电网络，可支撑超4000万辆新能源汽车充电需求。 日渐成熟的解决方案，为各国转型提供了借鉴。 筋骨强健的中国汽车产业正加速"走出去"，为各国发展直接赋能。从"产品出口"到"生态出海"，中国车 企坚持开放合作，被视为"开放战胜保护主义的生动案例"。近年来，中国车企在海外加快实施本土化战 略，建立海外工厂、完善本地供应链，让更多当地民众因产业升级而受益。比亚迪、长城等中国汽车品 牌在泰国东部经济走廊建厂，推动泰国汽车产业转型升级；江淮汽车在阿尔及利亚建立组装工厂，并为 当地员工提供专业技能培训；奇瑞与西班牙埃 ...

Core Insights - BYD has launched a hardware upgrade service for its luxury version and off-road player version of the Yangwang U8 model, priced at 1399 yuan [1] Group 1: Upgrade Features - The upgrade package includes four main driving control enhancements [1] - New features consist of a fixed wheel rotation function for maneuvering in tight spaces, a luxury version-specific parallel lateral movement function utilizing the Easy Four electric motor technology, and full-speed road surface perception control technology for optimizing torque distribution across various terrains [1] - An emergency floating mode activation feature has been added, which automatically triggers when the vehicle detects an unexpected water immersion situation, although this function will require a subsequent OTA update to be enabled [1]

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Core Insights - The core insight of the article is that the sales of small electric vehicles (EVs) in China have surged from less than 500,000 units in 2020 to over 3 million units by 2025, with Chinese brands being the primary beneficiaries, capturing nearly 96% of the market share in this segment [4][6][95]. Group 1: Market Growth - From 2020 to 2025, the sales of small electric vehicles in China increased more than sixfold, with their market share rising from less than 3% to over 14% of total passenger vehicle sales [6][95]. - The contribution of small electric vehicles to the overall market has been significant, accounting for over 10% of the market sales and helping to boost the market share of Chinese brands from over 30% to more than 60% [6][95]. Group 2: Brand Performance - Chinese brands have been the sole beneficiaries of the small electric vehicle boom, maintaining a sales ratio of over 90%, which is expected to approach 96% by 2025 [6][95]. - Notable Chinese brands such as Wuling and Geely have experienced a rebound in sales due to their small electric vehicle offerings, with Geely's sales projected to reach nearly 2 million units by 2025 [11][13]. Group 3: User Demographics and Preferences - By 2025, nearly 60% of small electric vehicle users will come from households that previously owned foreign brands, with over 80% of these users being female [25][33]. - The satisfaction and recommendation rates for small electric vehicles are higher than the overall market, indicating a positive shift in consumer perception towards Chinese brands [33][36]. Group 4: Competitive Landscape - As of January 2026, major foreign brands like Volkswagen and Toyota have struggled to respond effectively to the rise of Chinese small electric vehicles, lacking systematic strategies to counter this trend [12][103]. - The article suggests that if the sales of small electric vehicles continue to approach 5 million units and capture over 20% market share by 2030, foreign brands will face significant challenges [12][103]. Group 5: Strategic Implications - The rise of small electric vehicles has not only created new market opportunities for Chinese brands but has also disrupted the traditional user upgrade ecosystem established by foreign brands [55][62]. - The article emphasizes the importance of viewing small electric vehicles as a key component in building a user upgrade ecosystem rather than merely low-margin products [55][68].