Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company with a target price of 7 HKD [1][4][6] Core Insights - The company reported a revenue of 13.58 billion RMB for 2024, representing a year-on-year growth of 6.5%, and a net profit attributable to shareholders of 1.24 billion RMB, which is a 20.2% increase year-on-year [2][4] - The professional sports segment, including the Saucony brand, saw a significant revenue increase of 57.2% to 1.25 billion RMB, while the main brand, Xtep, grew by 3.2% to 12.33 billion RMB [2][3] - The company has focused on enhancing its brand image and expanding its product matrix, with the Saucony brand achieving a compound annual growth rate of over 100% over the past five years [2][3] Financial Performance Summary - Revenue and profit forecasts for 2025-2027 are as follows: - 2025E Revenue: 14.40 billion RMB, Net Profit: 1.38 billion RMB, EPS: 0.54 RMB - 2026E Revenue: 15.70 billion RMB, Net Profit: 1.54 billion RMB, EPS: 0.61 RMB - 2027E Revenue: 16.85 billion RMB, Net Profit: 1.69 billion RMB, EPS: 0.67 RMB [5][13] - The overall gross margin improved by 1 percentage point to 43.2%, driven by a significant increase in the gross margin of the professional sports segment [2][3][14] Strategic Developments - The company announced the divestiture of its fashion sports division, which is expected to alleviate profit pressure and allow for a focus on the main brand and Saucony, potentially leading to faster growth [3][4] - Management changes are anticipated to enhance the company's overseas expansion efforts, particularly in Southeast Asia [3][4]

Macro and Strategy - The Federal Reserve maintained the federal funds rate target range at 4.25-4.5% and announced a slowdown in balance sheet reduction, lowering the monthly limit for Treasury redemptions from $25 billion to $5 billion [7] - The high-tech manufacturing macro report indicates that the diffusion index for high-tech manufacturing remains stable, with a slight decline in certain sectors such as aerospace and new energy [7][8] - The AI-enabled asset allocation strategy highlights the integration of ESG factors into traditional investment theories, suggesting that incorporating ESG constraints can enhance portfolio performance [9][10] Industry and Company Insights - The social services sector is expected to benefit from recent consumption policies aimed at boosting domestic demand, with a focus on service consumption [10][11] - Data tracking shows a positive trend in retail sales and hiring demand, indicating a gradual economic recovery [11][12] - The textile and apparel sector has seen a rebound in retail sales growth, with notable increases in exports from Vietnam [13][14] - China Unicom reported a 10.5% year-on-year increase in net profit for 2024, with a focus on innovative business growth and a stable traditional business [16][17] - Xingyu Co. achieved a 34% year-on-year increase in net profit for Q4 2024, driven by strong demand for automotive lighting products [21][22] - Xtep International reported a 20% increase in net profit for 2024, with significant growth in its professional sports brand [24][25] - Anta Sports saw a 16.5% increase in core profit for 2024, supported by a diverse brand portfolio [28][29] - ZhongAn Online's total premium income reached 33.42 billion yuan in 2024, with a 13.3% year-on-year growth, driven by its diversified product ecosystem [30][31] - Ping An Insurance reported a 47.8% year-on-year increase in net profit for 2024, supported by a robust strategic layout in comprehensive finance and healthcare [33][34]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company with a target price not specified [4] Core Viewpoints - The main brand, Xtep, shows steady performance with a revenue increase of 3% to 12.3 billion, while professional sports revenue (including Saucony) surged by 57% to 1.3 billion [1] - The overall revenue for 2024 is projected at 13.6 billion, reflecting a 7% year-on-year growth [1] - The company is focusing on a Direct-to-Consumer (DTC) strategy to enhance brand loyalty and customer retention, with plans to reclaim distribution rights for 400-500 stores by 2026 [3] - The running trend in China continues to grow, with Xtep achieving the highest wearing rate in major marathons, solidifying its position as a leading running brand [2] Summary by Sections Financial Performance - Total revenue for 2024 is 13.6 billion, up 7% year-on-year; main brand revenue is 12.3 billion, up 3%, and professional sports revenue is 1.3 billion, up 57% [1] - Footwear revenue is 8.1 billion (59% of total), up 16%, while apparel revenue is 5.2 billion, down 6% [1] - The overall gross margin for 2024 is 43%, an increase of 1.4 percentage points [1] - Net profit attributable to shareholders is projected at 1.2 billion, a 20% increase [1] Market Position and Strategy - The company operates 6,382 adult brand stores and 1,584 children's stores in China, with plans to enhance its DTC strategy [3] - Saucony is positioned as a secondary growth driver, ranking among the top three in marathon shoe wearing rates [2] Future Outlook - Revenue forecasts for 2025-2027 are 14.7 billion, 15.8 billion, and 17 billion respectively, with net profit estimates of 1.36 billion, 1.52 billion, and 1.69 billion [4]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company [1] Core Views - The company reported a net profit of 1.24 billion RMB for FY2024, marking a 20.2% year-on-year increase, achieving a historical high [5] - The main brand's revenue grew steadily, with professional sports showing strong performance, particularly with a 57.2% increase in revenue from the professional sports segment [5] - The company is focusing on direct-to-consumer (DTC) channel transformation to enhance long-term competitiveness [5] Financial Data and Profit Forecast - FY2023 revenue was 143.46 billion RMB, with a projected revenue of 146.36 billion RMB for FY2025, reflecting an 8% growth [4] - The net profit for FY2023 was 1.03 billion RMB, expected to rise to 1.37 billion RMB by FY2025, indicating a 10% growth [4] - The gross margin is projected to improve from 42% in FY2023 to 45% by FY2027 [4] Brand and Channel Performance - The main brand's revenue accounted for 90.8% of total revenue, with a slight decrease in gross margin to 41.8% [5] - Online sales grew approximately 20%, with new platforms like Douyin and Xiaohongshu seeing over 80% growth [5] - The company operates 6,382 adult clothing stores, with a net decrease of 189 stores, while children's stores numbered 1,584, with a net decrease of 119 stores [5] Profitability and Cash Flow - The gross margin improved to 43.2%, with a net profit margin of 9.1% [5] - Inventory turnover days decreased by 22 days to 68 days, indicating improved efficiency [5] - Operating cash flow remained stable at 1.228 billion RMB, with cash and cash equivalents totaling 3 billion RMB [5]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company, expecting a relative increase of over 15% in the stock price compared to the benchmark index within the next 6 to 12 months [8]. Core Insights - The company achieved a revenue of 135.77 billion yuan in 2024, representing a year-on-year growth of 6.5% after excluding the divested K&P business. The net profit attributable to shareholders was 12.38 billion yuan, with a year-on-year increase of 20.2%, aligning with expectations [4]. - The main brand, Xtep, reported a revenue of 123.27 billion yuan in 2024, growing by 3.2%. The online e-commerce segment saw approximately 20% growth, accounting for over 30% of total revenue, with emerging platforms like Douyin experiencing over 80% growth [4]. - The professional sports segment, including Saucony, achieved a revenue of 1.25 billion yuan in 2024, marking a significant year-on-year increase of 57.2%. Saucony's revenue surpassed 1 billion yuan, with improved profitability [4]. - The company plans to enhance its Direct-to-Consumer (DTC) strategy, aiming to recover distribution rights for approximately 400 to 500 Xtep stores by late 2025 and 2026 [4]. Financial Performance Summary - Revenue projections for the company are as follows: 2023A at 14,346 million yuan, 2024A at 13,577 million yuan, 2025E at 14,531 million yuan, 2026E at 15,685 million yuan, and 2027E at 16,831 million yuan [2]. - The net profit attributable to shareholders is forecasted to be 1,030 million yuan in 2023A, increasing to 1,672 million yuan by 2027E, with a consistent growth rate of around 10% [2]. - The company's gross margin improved to 43.2% in 2024, with a net margin of 9.1%, reflecting a year-on-year increase of 1.0 percentage points [4]. Valuation Metrics - The report indicates a Price-to-Earnings (P/E) ratio forecast of 13.1 for 2023A, decreasing to 8.1 by 2027E, suggesting an attractive valuation as earnings grow [2]. - The Price-to-Book (P/B) ratio is projected to decline from 1.5 in 2023A to 1.0 in 2027E, indicating a strengthening balance sheet relative to market valuation [2].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company, with a target price of HKD 6.34 based on a 12x PE valuation for 2025 [4][5]. Core Insights - The company has adjusted its revenue and gross margin forecasts for 2025-2026, introducing a new forecast for 2027, with expected earnings per share of RMB 0.49, 0.56, and 0.63 for 2025-2027 respectively [4][5]. - The main brand is focusing on increasing Direct-to-Consumer (DTC) investments to enhance customer interaction and brand loyalty [7][8]. - The professional sports segment, particularly the Saucony brand, has shown significant revenue growth and improved profitability, indicating the effectiveness of the DTC strategy [7][8]. Financial Performance Summary - For 2023, the company reported revenue of RMB 14,346 million, with a year-on-year growth of 10.9%. The projected revenues for 2024, 2025, 2026, and 2027 are RMB 13,577 million, RMB 14,452 million, RMB 15,795 million, and RMB 17,244 million respectively, with growth rates of -5.4%, 6.4%, 9.3%, and 9.2% [4][8]. - The operating profit for 2023 was RMB 1,580 million, with a year-on-year growth of 7.9%. The expected operating profits for the following years are RMB 1,966 million, RMB 1,980 million, RMB 2,309 million, and RMB 2,593 million, reflecting growth rates of 24.4%, 0.7%, 16.6%, and 12.3% [4][8]. - The net profit attributable to the parent company for 2023 was RMB 1,030 million, with a year-on-year increase of 11.8%. The forecasts for the next four years are RMB 1,238 million, RMB 1,369 million, RMB 1,558 million, and RMB 1,745 million, with growth rates of 20.2%, 10.6%, 13.8%, and 12.0% [4][8]. - The gross margin is expected to improve from 42.2% in 2023 to 45.0% by 2027, while the net margin is projected to increase from 7.2% to 10.1% over the same period [4][8].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company [1] Core Views - The company achieved a revenue of 13.58 billion RMB in 2024, representing a year-on-year growth of 6.5%, and a net profit of 1.24 billion RMB, up 20.2% year-on-year [5][6] - The company has successfully divested its KP business, which has alleviated profit drag, resulting in a net profit margin increase of 1.0 percentage points to 9.1% [6] - The main brand, Xtep, and the professional sports brand, Saucony, are focusing on running and retail reform, with significant growth in the professional sports segment [12][13] Financial Performance - Revenue breakdown for 2024 shows footwear, apparel, and accessories contributing 59.3%, 38.5%, and 2.2% respectively, with footwear revenue growing by 15.9% [7] - The gross margin improved by 1.4 percentage points to 43.2%, with the professional sports segment's gross margin rising significantly due to acquisitions [8] - Operating profit margin for 2024 was 14.5%, an increase of 0.4 percentage points [11] Retail and Market Strategy - The company is focusing on the running segment, with the main brand's running shoes leading in major marathon events [12] - The number of adult stores decreased by 2.9% to 6,382, while the number of children's stores decreased by 7.0% to 1,584 [7] - The company plans to enhance direct-to-consumer (DTC) strategies, aiming to reclaim distribution rights for 400-500 stores by late 2025 to 2026 [12] Future Outlook - The company expects steady growth for the main brand in 2025, with Saucony's revenue projected to grow by 30-40% [12] - Earnings per share (EPS) estimates for 2025, 2026, and 2027 are 0.50, 0.55, and 0.61 RMB respectively, with corresponding price-to-earnings (P/E) ratios of 10, 9, and 8 [12][14]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company, with a target price of 6.34 HKD based on a 12x PE valuation for 2025 [4][5]. Core Insights - The company has adjusted its revenue and gross margin forecasts for 2025-2026, while introducing projections for 2027, expecting earnings per share of 0.49, 0.56, and 0.63 RMB for 2025-2027 respectively [4]. - The main brand, Xtep, is focusing on increasing direct-to-consumer (DTC) investments to enhance customer interaction and brand loyalty [7]. - The professional sports segment, represented by Saucony, has shown significant revenue growth and improved profitability, indicating the effectiveness of the DTC strategy [7]. Financial Summary - For 2023, the company reported revenue of 14,346 million RMB, with a year-on-year growth of 10.9%. The projected revenues for 2024, 2025, 2026, and 2027 are 13,577 million, 14,452 million, 15,795 million, and 17,244 million RMB respectively [4][8]. - The net profit attributable to the parent company for 2023 was 1,030 million RMB, with a projected increase to 1,238 million, 1,369 million, 1,558 million, and 1,745 million RMB for the following years [4][8]. - The gross margin is expected to improve from 42.2% in 2023 to 45.0% by 2027, while the net profit margin is projected to rise from 7.2% to 10.1% over the same period [4][8].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company [1] Core Views - The company achieved a revenue of 13.58 billion RMB in 2024, representing a year-on-year growth of 6.5%, and a net profit of 1.24 billion RMB, up 20.2% year-on-year [5][6] - The company has strategically divested its KP business, which has alleviated profit drag, resulting in a net profit margin increase of 1.0 percentage points to 9.1% [6] - The main brand, Xtep, and the professional sports brand, Saucony, are focusing on running and retail reform, with a strong emphasis on enhancing consumer experience [12][13] Financial Performance - The company’s gross margin improved by 1.4 percentage points to 43.2% in 2024, with the professional sports segment's gross margin rising significantly due to the acquisition of Saucony and Myle [8] - The operating profit margin for 2024 was 14.5%, an increase of 0.4 percentage points year-on-year [11] - The company plans to distribute a total dividend of 0.095 HKD per share, with a total payout ratio of 138.2% [5] Revenue Breakdown - In 2024, the revenue from the main brand (Xtep) and professional sports (Saucony, Myle) accounted for 90.8% and 9.2% of total revenue, respectively, with year-on-year growth of 3.2% and 57.2% [7] - The footwear segment contributed 59.3% of total revenue, with a year-on-year growth of 15.9%, while apparel and accessories saw declines [7] Future Outlook - The company expects steady growth for the main brand in 2025, with Saucony projected to grow by 30-40% year-on-year [12] - The report slightly lowers the profit forecast for 2025 and 2026 by 3% and 4%, respectively, while introducing a forecast for 2027 [12][14]

买入（维持） 2025 年 3 月 20 日 公司研究 剥离 KP 业务、索康尼实现高增，聚焦跑步、推进零售改革 ——特步国际（1368.HK）2024 年业绩点评 当前价：5.55 元港币 作者 分析师：姜浩 执业证书编号：S0930522010001 021-52523680 jianghao@ebscn.com 分析师：孙未未 执业证书编号：S0930517080001 021-52523672 sunww@ebscn.com 分析师：朱洁宇 执业证书编号：S0930523070004 021-52523842 zhujieyu@ebscn.com | 市场数据 | | --- | | 总股本(亿股) | 27.75 | | --- | --- | | 总市值(亿港元)： | 153.99 | | 一年最低/最高(港元)： | 4.15/7.13 | | 近 3 月换手率： | 49.0% | 股价相对走势 -20% -10% 0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70% 80% 90% 24/01 24/02 24/03 24/04 24/05 24/06 24/07 24/08 24 ...